southfront--2020-05-31--South China Sea Tensions Are At Boiling Point

Both the US and China are staging frequent maritime military exercises throughout the Asian Pacific region , major hotspots including the airspace and coastal waters around Taiwan and the islands in the South China Sea .
Senior officials and former officials from both sides are speaking of a looming ‘ Cold War ’ between the two countries as their bilateral diplomatic and economic relations hit rock bottom .
As the two Pacific giants face off , their respective efforts to enforce their claims and gain supremacy are becoming entangled in other intra-regional disputes , accusations and long standing rivalries and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Pacific region remains fraught with simmering conflicts and disputes , of which the competing territorial claims are among the most complex as well as constituting some of the most likely trigger points for a major clash between two or more countries from the region , apart from providing a prefect pretext for the US to intervene to further its own interests .
To the north , the seventy year on-again off-again war between North and South Korea ( and the US ) , with its ugly twin the stalemate between China and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ territorial disputes between Korea and Japan , and between Russia and Japan ; though both keep a permanent sour note to relations between the respective neighbours , they have generally not had the potential to trigger armed clashes ( though South Korean and Japanese air force and navy vessels have had numerous confrontations over the last year ) .
The most complicated territorial disputes however are probably those of the South China Sea , involving China , Taiwan , Vietnam , the Philippines , Brunei , Malaysia and Indonesia .
Alongside its most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the South China Sea , the US has also been particularly active in the air and coastal waters around Taiwan , another area that is threatening to become a major flashpoint as China has declared its intention to deploy both of its aircraft carriers to pass through the area during a months-long set of manoeuvres that will also take them to the South China Sea .
The US ’ military exercises often involve other countries and in such cases are generally less provocative and dangerous than its unilateral ‘ freedom of navigation ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ direct challenges to China ’ s territorial claims resulting in confrontations , such as shadowing each other ’ s vessels and aircraft while they are on patrol in zones claimed by China .
These jousting matches are the front line of the war of nerves and posturing from both sides ’ military and political leadership which could very easily get out of control and lead to armed clashes .
A report posted at ZeroHedge by Taylor Durden on 28 May describes some of the latest military deployments and manoeuvres by the US as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of navigation ’ flights and patrols close to , and at least in one reported case within , areas claimed by the Chinese as their exclusive territorial waters .
( LINK ) The report at ZeroHedge in turn cites several comments by Fox ’ s Lucas Tomlinson earlier the same day , that one month after the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer Mustin was ‘ harassed ’ by Chinese warships from a carrier strike group , the Mustin was sent on patrol around the contested Paracel Islands in the northern sector of the South @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as it is referred to in Vietnam ) .
Referring to the earlier incident , CNN has quoted Pentagon Spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Dave Eastburn alleging that a Chinese vessel conducted ‘ unsafe and unprofessional maneuvers ’ near the USS Mustin .
During the latest ‘ freedom of navigation ’ manoeuvres on 28 May , the guided-missile destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles of Woody Island and Pyramid Rock , both of which are claimed by Beijing , a US navy official stated .
Apparently , two days earlier two B-1 bombers flew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Guam , while two other B-1 bombers flew over the Sea of Japan for training with 16 Japanese fighter jets .
Since the start of April there have been no less than 15 US military aircraft flights in the vicinity of Taiwan , with at least three bombers approaching the area since the start of May .
The US Navy has also just dispatched two more warships to the East China Sea , USS New Orleans out of Japan and the guided-missile destroyer Rafael Peralta , based in the Western Pacific region @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strike group .
Citing military sources , the Chinese news agency Global Times stated of the USS Mustin ’ s latest manoeuvres near the Paracel Islands : “ The PLA Southern Theater Command organized naval and aerial forces to follow the US guided missile destroyer when it illegally trespassed into China ’ s territorial waters off the Xisha Islands without authorization from the Chinese government.
” The PLA sources said they followed and monitored the ship ’ s course before ultimately driving it out of Chinese-claimed waters .
A spokesman for the US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the incident : Meanwhile , the possibility of an extended deployment by China ’ s aircraft carriers on a course that would send them close to Taiwan ’ s shores was first revealed by a report by Kyodo news agency in Japan on 12 May , and was confirmed by Chinese officials earlier this week .
On 14 May the U.S. Navy had posted pictures of one of its warships sailing through the sensitive Taiwan Strait for the sixth time this year .
Several days ago picked up the reports that China is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ waters near Taiwan as part of its war games scheduled for August to rehearse for a future assault on the Taiwan-controlled Dongsha Islands .
On Monday of this week News.com.au had reported that for the first time , both of China ’ s aircraft carriers , the Liaoning and Shandong , are being deployed together in Bohai Bay in the Yellow Sea to conduct combat readiness drills .
The People ’ s Liberation Army Navy ( PLAN ) carriers are engaged in the second week of an 11-week simulated military confrontation that will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The South China Morning Post subsequently cited a military source as saying that “ An aircraft carrier strike group will pass through the Pratas Islands ( Dongsha Islands ) on its way to the exercise site to the southeast of Taiwan in the Philippine Sea.
” The US and Chinese exercises and manoeuvres around Taiwan continue to preoccupy senior officials from all three countries .
Speaking at Beijing ’ s Great Hall of the People on the 15th anniversary of the Anti-Secession Law , Li Zuocheng , chief of the Joint Staff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Commission , left the door open to using force .
The 2005 law gives the country the legal basis for military action against Taiwan if it secedes or seems about to .
Taiwan ’ s government denounced the comments , saying that threats of war were a violation of international law and that Taiwan has never been a part of the People ’ s Republic of China .
Taiwan is one of China ’ s most sensitive territorial issues .
Beijing says it is a Chinese province , and has denounced the Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Li Zhanshu , the third-most-senior leader of China ’ s ruling Communist Party and head of China ’ s Parliament , told the same event that non-peaceful means were an option of last resort : In further comments on Friday 29 May , Taiwanese Minister of National Defense Yen Teh-fa tried to play down the gravity of the current developments , pointing out that the Chinese Communist Party ( CCP ) has never relinquished the threat of force against the island nation , and that the Ministry of Defence ( MND ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any invading force if that should be necessary .
He also added more comments concerning the forum held in Beijing commemorating the 15th anniversary of the ratification of the “ Anti-Secession Law ” on Friday morning .
Li Zhanshu , a member of the CCP Politburo standing committee and chairman of the National People ’ s Congress standing committee , gave a speech addressing anti-independence and reiterating the “ one China principle ” and the so-called “ 1992 consensus.
” He also spoke about “ peaceful reunification with Taiwan ” and the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The reported that , in response to Zhanshu ’ s assertions , Taiwan ’ s Defence Minister Yen said the CCP has never given up the use of military force against Taiwan , which has been its long-standing policy .
The defence minister noted the CCP has already conducted eight military deterrence exercises since the beginning of this year .
No doubt Taiwan will be closely monitoring the scale , composition and trajectory of the forces accompanying the Chinese aircraft carriers .
Meanwhile , further to the south , on 24-25 May @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of joint drills in the South China Sea , in which the littoral combat ship USS Gabrielle Giffords ( LCS 10 ) and the Republic of Singapore Navy ’ s Formidable-class multi-role stealth frigate RSS Steadfast ( FFS 70 ) conducted a bilateral exercise in the South China Sea .
The last time the two countries exercised at sea was during Exercise Pacific Griffin in 2019 .
During last year ’ s joint exercise , held from September 24 to October 10 in waters off Guam , the navies of the US and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drill , fired a naval strike missile , and engaged in anti-submarine and anti-air warfare manoeuvres .
The United States held at least 85 joint military exercises with its allies in the Indo-Pacific region in 2019 according to the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative , affiliated to Peking University , which completed a report on the topic late last year .
While the drills – carried out between January and November – have varied in size , their aim has been consistent : to extend America ’ s presence in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its allies .
Although the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) has generally been wary of becoming entangled in the shows of force between China and the US , last year they held their first major multilateral military exercises with the US which included manoeuvres in the South China Sea .
On 2 September 2019 reported that : Although bilateral exercises with some of the individual ASEAN member countries are much more common , it remains to be seen whether US exercises with the regional block will become a regular feature @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goes against the deluge of belligerent actions , threats and accusations , according to the Philippines news agency the President Duterte and Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc spoke over the phone on Tuesday evening ( 26 May ) where they “ reiterated their commitment to the peaceful settlement of disputes ” in the South China Sea .
The Philippines has been actively pushing for the conclusion of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea .
Like the Philippines , Vietnam claims part of the South China Sea whereas China asserts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the entire area .
The Philippines and Vietnam elevated their bilateral ties to a Strategic Partnership in 2015 .
The two sides committed to enhance cooperation in a wide of areas — political , economic , socio-cultural , and defence and security cooperation , including in the area of maritime security .
Their strengthening of mutual ties and cooperation are in part a consequence of the failure to resolve the territorial disputes , and the inevitable clashes that have occurred as a result .
Both nations have had fishing vessels sunk in collisions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the last year .
In June last year , a Chinese trawler sank a boat carrying 22 Filipino fishermen at Recto Bank , which is within the Philippines ’ claimed 370-kilometre exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea .
The fishermen were rescued by a Vietnamese fishing vessel .
Vietnam lodged a protest with Beijing after the Chinese Coast Guard “ hindered , rammed and sunk ” a Vietnamese boat with eight fishermen on board near the Paracel Islands on 3 April 2020 .
The sinking of the Vietnamese fishing boat prompted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support to its Southeast Asian neighbour .
The Philippines said that with the discussions on a Code of Conduct in the maritime area ongoing , it is “ crucial that such incidents be avoided and that differences be addressed in a manner that enhances dialogue and mutual trust.
” The DFA added that such incidents “ undermine the potential of a genuinely deep and trusting regional relationship between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( Asean ) and China , ” and that “ neither fish nor fictional historical claims are worth the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ incidents.
” However , the potential for clashes between China and Vietnam in particular remain high .
Malaysia ’ s reported on 5 May that Vietnam ’ s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development rejected China ’ s announcement of a ban on all fishing in certain parts of the Paracel Islands archipelago subject to territorial claims by both countries .
There is still a considerable historical legacy of enmity between China and Vietnam , particularly since China invaded its southern neighbour in 1979 in a military campaign that lasted for several weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ongoing source of hostility and occasional clashes , precluding any attempt to improve relations and expand cooperation in areas of mutual concern .
In early May , the Vietnamese government urged its fishermen to fish in some of the disputed areas in the Paracel Islands area during the summer season ( from May until mid-August ) .
Chinese officials denounced the statements and warned Vietnamese fishing vessels to stay out of ‘ China ’ s territorial waters ’ .
The reports : “ VIETNAM has rejected China ’ s ban on summer fishing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sea , and has encouraged its fishermen to continue their activities there .
Its Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said the waters were Vietnamese sea territory and the ban was invalid .
It also directed provinces and cities to encourage fishermen with guide groups and teams to support the fishermen at sea .
According to the Vietnam Express , the ministry said fishing vessels with licenses valid until the end of this year can fish in the Tonkin Gulf common fishing area , but asked them to avoid the area east of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ April 30 , China announced that the annual fishing ban on the South China Sea has begun on May 1 and would last until August 16 , Chinese news agency Xinhua reported .
The ban would apply to certain sea areas of the South China Sea that encompass parts of the Tonkin Gulf and Paracel Islands .
China said no fishing activities are allowed in sea areas under its sovereignty within the time period , except in certain cases .
The Vietnam Fisheries Society has also opposed China ’ s unilateral decision , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ value over sea areas under Vietnam ’ s sovereignty .
Four days later , Vietnam ’ s Foreign Ministry also expressed clear opposition and asked Beijing not to complicate the situation further .
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Le Thi Thu Hang said Vietnam has full legal basis and historical evidence to assert its sovereignty over the Paracel and Spratly Islands , as well as its legal rights over its waters in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS ) .
China has been issuing similar fishing bans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has consistently condemned and rejected them .
China claims the bans seek to promote sustainable fisheries development and improve marine ecology .
China had seized the Paracel Islands from South Vietnam in 1974 , and has been occupying it since .
In 2012 it established the so-called Sansha City with the archipelago ’ s Woody Island as its seat .
The ‘ city ’ also covers a number of reefs in the Spratly Islands that China seized by force in 1988 as well as the Scarborough Shoal .
Meanwhile , China ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right to comment on China ’ s summer fishing moratorium in the South China Sea waters since the measure was its administrative rights .
Xinhua reports Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian saying the measure was beneficial for the protection of fishery resources and sustainable development in South China Sea .
In a separate development , Indonesia has also rejected China ’ s territorial claims in the South China Sea by raising the 2016 Hague ruling in its letter to the United Nations ( U.N. ) earlier this week .
In a letter addressed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( May 26 ) , the Indonesians pointed out the ‘ nine-dash line ’ issued by Beijing ‘ lacks international legal basis ’ and contradicts the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS 1982 ) .
It added the nine-dash line map , which encroached on the economic zones of several Southeast Asian countries , is fictitious and does not give China sovereignty over the area .
MORE ON THE TOPIC : • What War between the United States and Iran Could Look Like • Top China General Says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Other Way To Stop Independence

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Both the US and China are staging frequent maritime military exercises throughout the Asian Pacific region, major hotspots including the airspace and coastal waters around Taiwan and the islands in the South China Sea. Senior officials and former officials from both sides are speaking of a looming ‘Cold War’ between the two countries as their bilateral diplomatic and economic relations hit rock bottom.
As the two Pacific giants face off, their respective efforts to enforce their claims and gain supremacy are becoming entangled in other intra-regional disputes, accusations and long standing rivalries and enmities.
The entire Asian quadrant of the Pacific region remains fraught with simmering conflicts and disputes, of which the competing territorial claims are among the most complex as well as constituting some of the most likely trigger points for a major clash between two or more countries from the region, apart from providing a prefect pretext for the US to intervene to further its own interests.
To the north, the seventy year on-again off-again war between North and South Korea (and the US), with its ugly twin the stalemate between China and Taiwan.
Of similar vintage are the territorial disputes between Korea and Japan, and between Russia and Japan; though both keep a permanent sour note to relations between the respective neighbours, they have generally not had the potential to trigger armed clashes (though South Korean and Japanese air force and navy vessels have had numerous confrontations over the last year).
The most complicated territorial disputes however are probably those of the South China Sea, involving China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia.
Alongside its most recent challenges to Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea, the US has also been particularly active in the air and coastal waters around Taiwan, another area that is threatening to become a major flashpoint as China has declared its intention to deploy both of its aircraft carriers to pass through the area during a months-long set of manoeuvres that will also take them to the South China Sea.
The US’ military exercises often involve other countries and in such cases are generally less provocative and dangerous than its unilateral ‘freedom of navigation’ patrols and manoeuvres, which frequently involve direct challenges to China’s territorial claims resulting in confrontations, such as shadowing each other’s vessels and aircraft while they are on patrol in zones claimed by China. These jousting matches are the front line of the war of nerves and posturing from both sides’ military and political leadership which could very easily get out of control and lead to armed clashes.
A report posted at ZeroHedge by Taylor Durden on 28 May describes some of the latest military deployments and manoeuvres by the US as its aircraft and warships conduct ‘freedom of navigation’ flights and patrols close to, and at least in one reported case within, areas claimed by the Chinese as their exclusive territorial waters. (LINK)
The report at ZeroHedge in turn cites several comments by Fox’s Lucas Tomlinson earlier the same day, that one month after the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer Mustin was ‘harassed’ by Chinese warships from a carrier strike group, the Mustin was sent on patrol around the contested Paracel Islands in the northern sector of the South China Sea (or the East Sea, as it is referred to in Vietnam).
Referring to the earlier incident, CNN has quoted Pentagon Spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Dave Eastburn alleging that a Chinese vessel conducted ‘unsafe and unprofessional maneuvers’ near the USS Mustin. During the latest ‘freedom of navigation’ manoeuvres on 28 May, the guided-missile destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles of Woody Island and Pyramid Rock, both of which are claimed by Beijing, a US navy official stated.
Apparently, two days earlier two B-1 bombers flew over the same area after taking off from Guam, while two other B-1 bombers flew over the Sea of Japan for training with 16 Japanese fighter jets. Since the start of April there have been no less than 15 US military aircraft flights in the vicinity of Taiwan, with at least three bombers approaching the area since the start of May.
The US Navy has also just dispatched two more warships to the East China Sea, USS New Orleans out of Japan and the guided-missile destroyer Rafael Peralta, based in the Western Pacific region as part of the Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group.
Citing military sources, the Chinese news agency Global Times stated of the USS Mustin’s latest manoeuvres near the Paracel Islands: “The PLA Southern Theater Command organized naval and aerial forces to follow the US guided missile destroyer USS Mustin when it illegally trespassed into China’s territorial waters off the Xisha Islands without authorization from the Chinese government.”
The PLA sources said they followed and monitored the ship’s course before ultimately driving it out of Chinese-claimed waters.
A spokesman for the US Navy`s 7th Fleet stated of the incident:
“On May 28 (local time), USS Mustin (DDG 89) asserted navigational rights and freedoms in the Paracel Islands, consistent with international law. By conducting this operation, the United States demonstrated that these waters are beyond what China can lawfully claim as its territorial sea.”
Taiwan
Meanwhile, the possibility of an extended deployment by China’s aircraft carriers on a course that would send them close to Taiwan’s shores was first revealed by a report by Kyodo news agency in Japan on 12 May, and was confirmed by Chinese officials earlier this week. On 14 May the U.S. Navy had posted pictures of one of its warships sailing through the sensitive Taiwan Strait for the sixth time this year.
Several days ago Taiwan News picked up the reports that China is planning on deploying two aircraft carriers in waters near Taiwan as part of its war games scheduled for August to rehearse for a future assault on the Taiwan-controlled Dongsha Islands.
On Monday of this week News.com.au had reported that for the first time, both of China’s aircraft carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong, are being deployed together in Bohai Bay in the Yellow Sea to conduct combat readiness drills. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) carriers are engaged in the second week of an 11-week simulated military confrontation that will later extend into the South China Sea.
The South China Morning Post subsequently cited a military source as saying that “An aircraft carrier strike group will pass through the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands) on its way to the exercise site to the southeast of Taiwan in the Philippine Sea.”
The US and Chinese exercises and manoeuvres around Taiwan continue to preoccupy senior officials from all three countries.
Speaking at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on the 15th anniversary of the Anti-Secession Law, Li Zuocheng, chief of the Joint Staff Department and member of the Central Military Commission, left the door open to using force. The 2005 law gives the country the legal basis for military action against Taiwan if it secedes or seems about to. Taiwan’s government denounced the comments, saying that threats of war were a violation of international law and that Taiwan has never been a part of the People’s Republic of China.
Taiwan is one of China’s most sensitive territorial issues. Beijing says it is a Chinese province, and has denounced the Trump administration’s support for the island. Li Zhanshu, the third-most-senior leader of China’s ruling Communist Party and head of China’s Parliament, told the same event that non-peaceful means were an option of last resort:
“As long as there is a slightest chance of a peaceful resolution, we will put in hundred times the effort,” Li Zhanshu said. However, he added: “We warn Taiwan’s pro-independence and separatist forces sternly, the path of Taiwan independence leads to a dead end; any challenge to this law will be severely punished”.
In further comments on Friday 29 May, Taiwanese Minister of National Defense Yen Teh-fa tried to play down the gravity of the current developments, pointing out that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has never relinquished the threat of force against the island nation, and that the Ministry of Defence (MND) is prepared to defend the country against any invading force if that should be necessary.
He also added more comments concerning the forum held in Beijing commemorating the 15th anniversary of the ratification of the “Anti-Secession Law” on Friday morning.
Li Zhanshu, a member of the CCP Politburo standing committee and chairman of the National People’s Congress standing committee, gave a speech addressing anti-independence and reiterating the “one China principle” and the so-called “1992 consensus.” He also spoke about “peaceful reunification with Taiwan” and the “one country, two systems” framework.
The Taiwan Times reported that, in response to Zhanshu’s assertions, Taiwan’s Defence Minister Yen said the CCP has never given up the use of military force against Taiwan, which has been its long-standing policy. The defence minister noted the CCP has already conducted eight military deterrence exercises since the beginning of this year.
This is something that can be felt and seen, making the situation in the Taiwan Strait increasingly grim, Yen said. However, he added that Taiwan’s armed forces are cautious about evaluating political dynamics in the Taiwan Strait and will do a good job of protecting the nation. Surveillance and investigation shows the current situation is not unusual, Yen said. Nevertheless, he asserted, the armed forces are determined to hold fast to Taiwan’s sovereignty, democracy, and freedom and are prepared for the worst.
No doubt Taiwan will be closely monitoring the scale, composition and trajectory of the forces accompanying the Chinese aircraft carriers.
Rival claims in the South China Sea
Meanwhile, further to the south, on 24-25 May the US and Singapore concluded a set of joint drills in the South China Sea, in which the littoral combat ship USS Gabrielle Giffords (LCS 10) and the Republic of Singapore Navy’s Formidable-class multi-role stealth frigate RSS Steadfast (FFS 70) conducted a bilateral exercise in the South China Sea.
The last time the two countries exercised at sea was during Exercise Pacific Griffin in 2019. During last year’s joint exercise, held from September 24 to October 10 in waters off Guam, the navies of the US and Singapore staged their first ever cooperative anti-surface drill, fired a naval strike missile, and engaged in anti-submarine and anti-air warfare manoeuvres.
The United States held at least 85 joint military exercises with its allies in the Indo-Pacific region in 2019 according to the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, affiliated to Peking University, which completed a report on the topic late last year. While the drills – carried out between January and November – have varied in size, their aim has been consistent: to extend America’s presence in the region and strengthen the defence capabilities of its allies.
“Through these exercises, the US is enhancing its interoperability with other nations and making a stronger military presence to contain the rise of China as a maritime power,” it said, adding that America was “likely to stage more drills on core combat capability … to handle the perceived regional security threat”. Of the joint and multinational exercises staged in the period, the Philippines was involved in at least 16, Thailand nine and Singapore six. Although neither Singapore nor Thailand are involved in territorial disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea – the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan are – military cooperation between the two Southeast Asian nations and the US is deepening. The US has also invited other allies, including Japan, India and Australia, to take part in exercises in the South China Sea, in an effort to “drag more nations into the (issue)”, the report said. (LINK)
Although the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has generally been wary of becoming entangled in the shows of force between China and the US, last year they held their first major multilateral military exercises with the US which included manoeuvres in the South China Sea. On 2 September 2019 The Defense Post reported that:
“The United States and 10 Southeast Asian countries kicked off maritime drills on Monday, as part of a joint exercise extending into the flashpoint South China Sea with eight warships, four aircraft and more than a thousand personnel. The first ASEAN-US Maritime Exercise (AUMX) between the regional bloc and Washington will last for five days, starting September 2 at the Sattahip Naval Base in Thailand and ending in Singapore. The drills come at a time of stepped-up U.S. engagement in the region and tensions between Beijing and Southeast Asian nations over the South China Sea, parts of which are claimed by ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines. Co-led by the U.S. and Royal Thai navies, the exercises will stretch into “international waters in Southeast Asia, including the Gulf of Thailand and South China Sea” before concluding in Singapore, according to a statement from the U.S. embassy in Bangkok… U.S. assets participating in the exercise include the littoral combat ship USS Montgomery, guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer, three MH-60 Sea Hawk helicopters, a P-8 Poseidon aircraft and staff assigned to Destroyer Squadron 7 and CTF 73.”
Although bilateral exercises with some of the individual ASEAN member countries are much more common, it remains to be seen whether US exercises with the regional block will become a regular feature.
Meanwhile, in a development that goes against the deluge of belligerent actions, threats and accusations, according to the Philippines news agency the Inquirer President Duterte and Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc spoke over the phone on Tuesday evening (26 May) where they “reiterated their commitment to the peaceful settlement of disputes” in the South China Sea. The Philippines has been actively pushing for the conclusion of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. Like the Philippines, Vietnam claims part of the South China Sea whereas China asserts sweeping claims of ownership that cover almost the entire area.
The Philippines and Vietnam elevated their bilateral ties to a Strategic Partnership in 2015. The two sides committed to enhance cooperation in a wide of areas — political, economic, socio-cultural, and defence and security cooperation, including in the area of maritime security. Their strengthening of mutual ties and cooperation are in part a consequence of the failure to resolve the territorial disputes, and the inevitable clashes that have occurred as a result. Both nations have had fishing vessels sunk in collisions with Chinese vessels in the course of the last year.
In June last year, a Chinese trawler sank a boat carrying 22 Filipino fishermen at Recto Bank, which is within the Philippines’ claimed 370-kilometre exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. The fishermen were rescued by a Vietnamese fishing vessel.
Vietnam lodged a protest with Beijing after the Chinese Coast Guard “hindered, rammed and sunk” a Vietnamese boat with eight fishermen on board near the Paracel Islands on 3 April 2020. The sinking of the Vietnamese fishing boat prompted the Philippines to issue a statement of support to its Southeast Asian neighbour.
“Our own similar experience revealed how much trust in a friendship is lost by it; and how much trust was created by Vietnam’s humanitarian act of directly saving the lives of our Filipino fishermen,” the DFA (Department of Foreign Affairs) said in a statement. The DFA pointed out that it is crucial that such incidents be avoided and that “differences be addressed in a manner that enhances dialogue and mutual trust.”
The Philippines said that with the discussions on a Code of Conduct in the maritime area ongoing, it is “crucial that such incidents be avoided and that differences be addressed in a manner that enhances dialogue and mutual trust.”
The DFA added that such incidents “undermine the potential of a genuinely deep and trusting regional relationship between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and China,” and that “neither fish nor fictional historical claims are worth the fuse that’s lit by such incidents.”
“There is never a good time to indulge in provocations; they usually end in the defeat of aggression or a devastating price of victory. But it is always a good time to rise in the defence and affirmation of our respective sovereignties and in the peace and stability of our region especially in a time of pandemic… As we have said the creation of new facts in the water will never give rise to legal right anywhere or anytime.” (LINK)
However, the potential for clashes between China and Vietnam in particular remain high. Malaysia’s New Straits Times reported on 5 May that Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development rejected China’s announcement of a ban on all fishing in certain parts of the Paracel Islands archipelago subject to territorial claims by both countries.
There is still a considerable historical legacy of enmity between China and Vietnam, particularly since China invaded its southern neighbour in 1979 in a military campaign that lasted for several weeks. The maritime territorial disputes are on ongoing source of hostility and occasional clashes, precluding any attempt to improve relations and expand cooperation in areas of mutual concern.
In early May, the Vietnamese government urged its fishermen to fish in some of the disputed areas in the Paracel Islands area during the summer season (from May until mid-August). Chinese officials denounced the statements and warned Vietnamese fishing vessels to stay out of ‘China’s territorial waters’. The NST reports:
“VIETNAM has rejected China’s ban on summer fishing in disputed areas of the South China Sea, and has encouraged its fishermen to continue their activities there. Its Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said the waters were Vietnamese sea territory and the ban was invalid. It also directed provinces and cities to encourage fishermen with guide groups and teams to support the fishermen at sea. According to the Vietnam Express, the ministry said fishing vessels with licenses valid until the end of this year can fish in the Tonkin Gulf common fishing area, but asked them to avoid the area east of the Tonkin Gulf delimitation line. On April 30, China announced that the annual fishing ban on the South China Sea has begun on May 1 and would last until August 16, Chinese news agency Xinhua reported. The ban would apply to certain sea areas of the South China Sea that encompass parts of the Tonkin Gulf and Paracel Islands. China said no fishing activities are allowed in sea areas under its sovereignty within the time period, except in certain cases. The Vietnam Fisheries Society has also opposed China’s unilateral decision, saying the fishing ban has no legal value over sea areas under Vietnam’s sovereignty. Four days later, Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry also expressed clear opposition and asked Beijing not to complicate the situation further. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Le Thi Thu Hang said Vietnam has full legal basis and historical evidence to assert its sovereignty over the Paracel and Spratly Islands, as well as its legal rights over its waters in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China has been issuing similar fishing bans every year in recent times and Vietnam has consistently condemned and rejected them. China claims the bans seek to promote sustainable fisheries development and improve marine ecology. China had seized the Paracel Islands from South Vietnam in 1974, and has been occupying it since. In 2012 it established the so-called Sansha City with the archipelago’s Woody Island as its seat. The ‘city’ also covers a number of reefs in the Spratly Islands that China seized by force in 1988 as well as the Scarborough Shoal. Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry responded saying Vietnam had no right to comment on China’s summer fishing moratorium in the South China Sea waters since the measure was its administrative rights. Xinhua reports Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian saying the measure was beneficial for the protection of fishery resources and sustainable development in South China Sea.
In a separate development, Indonesia has also rejected China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea by raising the 2016 Hague ruling in its letter to the United Nations (U.N.) earlier this week.
In a letter addressed to U.N. Secretary General António Guterres on Tuesday (May 26), the Indonesians pointed out the ‘nine-dash line’ issued by Beijing ‘lacks international legal basis’ and contradicts the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982). It added the nine-dash line map, which encroached on the economic zones of several Southeast Asian countries, is fictitious and does not give China sovereignty over the area.
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southfront--2020-05-31--Military Situation In Syria On May 31, 2020 (Map Update)

The LNA in Libya is shooting down Turkish drones faster than Turkey can launch them , at least 3 confirmed @ @ @ @ @ period as well as unconfirmed reports of nearly a dozen more over the same time @ @ @ @ @ LNA can do it in Libya , the SAA can do it in Syria too @ @ @ @ @ paying attention to what ’ s happening in Libya now , they could probably learn @ @ @ @ @ they are , there ’ s nothing better than learning from someone else ’ s @ @ @ @ @ can try to avoid their mistakes and copy their successes .
Thank LNA , hopefully @ @ @ @ @ to repay you some day , they ’ ve been learning a thing or two @ @ @ @ @ proxies as well .

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A brief overview of the recent developments in Syria:
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southfront--2020-05-31--NASA Astronauts Successfully Blast Off Into Space On A SpaceX Rocket

At precisely 3:22pm ET , SpaceX ’ s NASA Flight launched successfully from Cape Canaveral , marking the first NASA crew bound for orbit from the US in 9 years , heralding a new era in human spaceflight and forging a new landmark for NASA and Elon Musk .
The Dragon capsule will next deliver Behnken and Hurley to the International Space Station – the first time American astronauts have flown from U.S. soil since the space shuttle program ended in 2011 .
The launch comes 18 years after Musk founded Space Exploration Technologies Corp. with the ultimate goal of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rocket launch in decades captured interest around the globe , coming at a time people clamored for good news amid the Covid-19 pandemic and economic uncertainty .
Watch the full take off here : Despite the threat of more thunderstorms , SpaceX and NASA are preparing for today ’ s historic attempt to launch astronauts into space , via a private company .
This comes several days after NASA “ scrubbed ” the first attempt due to weather-related issues and one day after SpaceX ’ s Starship prototype blew up on a Texas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Crew Dragon launch from Kennedy Space Center , located in Merritt Island , Florida , has around 50 % odds for a 15:22 ET liftoff of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket : SpaceX and NASA administrators are carefully monitoring today ’ s evolving weather situation around the launch site .
As of 11:37 ET , there ’ s a weather disturbance off the coast and could arrive inland around 14:00 to 16:00 ET , right around the time of launch .
At 7:51 ET , SpaceX tweeted “ all systems go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Crew Dragon atop the Falcon 9 rocket .
As per the Launch Mission Execution Forecast : The report went on to say Sunday ’ s launch window would be at 60 % and 70 % chance for Tuesday , suggesting more favorable odds of launching would be seen in the week ahead .
Astronauts Doug Hurley and Bob Behnken will be on the Crew Dragon mission , which would be the first manned rocket launch from US soil since the space shuttle program ended in 2011 .
Both President Donald Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in attendance at today ’ s launch event .
Bridenstine tweeted , “ Best selfie ever !
” as he stands in front of Hurley and Behnken .
NASA will stream the launch event live on YouTube Today ’ s launch comes one day after SpaceX ’ s Starship SN4 prototype blew up on its test stand in Boca Chica , Texas .
It doesn ’ t produce a vote of confidence for the Crew Dragon launch .
Last week , the morning before the first launch attempt , Elon Musk , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 54 % of the private company , said : “ I ’ m Chief Engineer of the thing .
If it goes right , it ’ s a credit to the SpaceX/NASA team .
Goes wrong , it ’ s my fault .
”

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Originally appeared at ZeroHedge
At precisely 3:22pm ET, SpaceX’s NASA Flight launched successfully from Cape Canaveral, marking the first NASA crew bound for orbit from the US in 9 years, heralding a new era in human spaceflight and forging a new landmark for NASA and Elon Musk.
We have liftoff. History is made as @NASA_Astronauts launch from @NASAKennedy for the first time in nine years on the @SpaceX Crew Dragon: pic.twitter.com/alX1t1JBAt — NASA (@NASA) May 30, 2020
NASA was live tweeting the launch:
We have liftoff. History is made as @NASA_Astronauts launch from @NASAKennedy for the first time in nine years on the @SpaceX Crew Dragon: pic.twitter.com/alX1t1JBAt — NASA (@NASA) May 30, 2020
Stage 1 entry burn has started. The #LaunchAmerica crew is heading into orbit. pic.twitter.com/aJUAdj4OC9 — NASA (@NASA) May 30, 2020
Falcon 9 booster has landed on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship! pic.twitter.com/96Nd3vsrT2 — SpaceX (@SpaceX) May 30, 2020
All systems look good 11 minutes after liftoff. #LaunchAmerica pic.twitter.com/hKKw1DE1Zu — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) May 30, 2020
The Dragon capsule will next deliver Behnken and Hurley to the International Space Station – the first time American astronauts have flown from U.S. soil since the space shuttle program ended in 2011. The launch comes 18 years after Musk founded Space Exploration Technologies Corp. with the ultimate goal of populating other planets.
The biggest U.S. rocket launch in decades captured interest around the globe, coming at a time people clamored for good news amid the Covid-19 pandemic and economic uncertainty.
Watch the full take off here:
* * *
Despite the threat of more thunderstorms, SpaceX and NASA are preparing for today’s historic attempt to launch astronauts into space, via a private company. This comes several days after NASA “scrubbed” the first attempt due to weather-related issues and one day after SpaceX’s Starship prototype blew up on a Texas launch pad.
NASA officials say today’s Crew Dragon launch from Kennedy Space Center, located in Merritt Island, Florida, has around 50% odds for a 15:22 ET liftoff of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket:
“We are moving forward with the launch today,” NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine tweeted Saturday morning. “Weather challenges remain with a 50% chance of cancellation.”
SpaceX and NASA administrators are carefully monitoring today’s evolving weather situation around the launch site. As of 11:37 ET, there’s a weather disturbance off the coast and could arrive inland around 14:00 to 16:00 ET, right around the time of launch.
weather radar at 11:37ET
At 7:51 ET, SpaceX tweeted “all systems go,” along with an up-close photo of the Crew Dragon atop the Falcon 9 rocket.
All systems go for Crew Dragon’s test flight with @NASA astronauts @AstroBehnken and @Astro_Doug. Teams are keeping an eye on weather. Webcast will go live at ~11:00 a.m. EDT → https://t.co/bJFjLCilmc pic.twitter.com/AXDGNfqv0K — SpaceX (@SpaceX) May 30, 2020
As per the Launch Mission Execution Forecast:
“On Sunday, the late season frontal boundary will provide some added cloudiness over the Spaceport early, but will likely push just south of the area by T-0. The primary weather concerns for launch are flight through precipitation, the thick cloud layer rule, and the cumulus cloud rule, associated with the frontal boundary,” NASA’s launch report said.
The report went on to say Sunday’s launch window would be at 60% and 70% chance for Tuesday, suggesting more favorable odds of launching would be seen in the week ahead.
NASA Launch Report
Astronauts Doug Hurley and Bob Behnken will be on the Crew Dragon mission, which would be the first manned rocket launch from US soil since the space shuttle program ended in 2011. Both President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence will be in attendance at today’s launch event.
Bridenstine tweeted, “Best selfie ever!” as he stands in front of Hurley and Behnken.
NASA will stream the launch event live on YouTube
Today’s launch comes one day after SpaceX’s Starship SN4 prototype blew up on its test stand in Boca Chica, Texas. It doesn’t produce a vote of confidence for the Crew Dragon launch.
Elon, your rocket just blew up. pic.twitter.com/EZAVN4cVCd — Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog) May 29, 2020
Last week, the morning before the first launch attempt, Elon Musk, the majority owner of SpaceX, holding about 54% of the private company, said: “I’m Chief Engineer of the thing. If it goes right, it’s a credit to the SpaceX/NASA team. Goes wrong, it’s my fault.”
“I’m Chief Engineer of the thing. If it goes right, it’s credit to the SpaceX/NASA team. Goes wrong, it’s my fault.” — @elonmusk ? leadership. pic.twitter.com/tKPIpq0CRH — Viv ? (@flcnhvy) May 27, 2020
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southfront--2020-05-31--New Allegations Of Massive Corruption In Colombian Armed Forces And Threats Against Whistleblowers

Local media in Colombia this week have been scrutinizing the statements of the retired colonel , Martín Arrauth .
The former military intelligence officer participated in the Bastón operation , an investigation that revealed a major corruption scandal within the Colombian Army after details were first published by the media outlet .
According to sources within the institutions , Arrauth was a long-time confidant of the former commander of the military forces , General Alberto José Mejía , today Colombia ’ s ambassador to Australia .
Colonel Arrauth was one of the Army ’ s Counterintelligence Commanders from December 2015 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the restructuring and reorganization of the National Army ’ s Counterintelligence during that period , and took part in planning not only the Bastón mission , but more than 700 other related operations pursuant to orders and directives of his superior officers .
According to the officer , the objective of the operations was to identify , prevent , detect , interrupt or counteract foreign intelligence activities , terrorist organizations , subversive agents or activities and other possible threats to the preservation of personnel , facilities , infrastructure , equipment and information @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relevant constitutional and legal foundations and requirements .
This week he has been identified both from within the Armed Forces as well as by other sources as one of the people who has delivered to the press a large number of documents about the alleged irregular , criminal and corrupt actions of officers , which he found during the almost three years that he was at the forefront of military counterintelligence .
Regarding his work , retired Colonel Arrauth affirmed that many of the processes were carried out by the Prosecutor ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Office , and that they possess all the relevant documents and inquiries as well as more than 25,000 polygraph tests and recordings .
And in the face of the leaking of the documentation to the media , the officer , in a communication that he sent to Caracol Radio , said that “ he will never violate the legal requirements and obligations of the work missions , let alone the intelligence law , as some journalists have alleged who are unaware of the reality of planning and directing , synchronizing information , processing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ command decision-making.
” Colonel Arrauth also responded to former director of the Military Criminal Justice Tribunal Alejandro Ramírez , who in an interview claimed that he had profited from the payment of rewards .
On the contrary , he said that “ he was never paid any reward for the operations and work missions that he had operationally under his command or for protocols , processes and procedures that he directed in the National Army ’ s Counterintelligence , a matter that is easily verifiable in the files of said agency ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ s counterintelligence , who he claims has been decorated 53 times and has two master ’ s degrees , denounced that since he left office he has been the subject of constant monitoring , surveillance and threats by unknown persons , “ presumably from structures of power , who not only seek to dishonour his impeccable military career , easily verifiable in his resume , but also jeopardize his life and personal integrity and that of his entire family.
” He said that thanks to the work he completed , more than 3,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that is why he is now the target of attacks .
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Local media in Colombia this week have been scrutinizing the statements of the retired colonel, Martín Arrauth. The former military intelligence officer participated in the Bastón operation, an investigation that revealed a major corruption scandal within the Colombian Army after details were first published by the Semana media outlet.
According to sources within the institutions, Arrauth was a long-time confidant of the former commander of the military forces, General Alberto José Mejía, today Colombia’s ambassador to Australia.
Colonel Arrauth was one of the Army’s Counterintelligence Commanders from December 2015 to July 2018.
He took part in the restructuring and reorganization of the National Army’s Counterintelligence during that period, and took part in planning not only the Bastón mission, but more than 700 other related operations pursuant to orders and directives of his superior officers.
According to the officer, the objective of the operations was to identify, prevent, detect, interrupt or counteract foreign intelligence activities, terrorist organizations, subversive agents or activities and other possible threats to the preservation of personnel, facilities, infrastructure, equipment and information, all within the framework of the relevant constitutional and legal foundations and requirements.
This week he has been identified both from within the Armed Forces as well as by other sources as one of the people who has delivered to the press a large number of documents about the alleged irregular, criminal and corrupt actions of officers, which he found during the almost three years that he was at the forefront of military counterintelligence.
Regarding his work, retired Colonel Arrauth affirmed that many of the processes were carried out by the Prosecutor’s Office and the Attorney General’s Office, and that they possess all the relevant documents and inquiries as well as more than 25,000 polygraph tests and recordings.
And in the face of the leaking of the documentation to the media, the officer, in a communication that he sent to Caracol Radio, said that “he will never violate the legal requirements and obligations of the work missions, let alone the intelligence law, as some journalists have alleged who are unaware of the reality of planning and directing, synchronizing information, processing and dissemination, as a tool for command decision-making.”
El árbol genealógico de Uribe está plagado de narcotráfico por donde lo mire…..lea este informe…..e instruyase…sobre la historia criminal de Uribe biene de familia….. pic.twitter.com/sSHM4MleYa — sergio rueda serrano (@srueda1564) May 28, 2020
Colonel Arrauth also responded to former director of the Military Criminal Justice Tribunal Alejandro Ramírez, who in an interview claimed that he had profited from the payment of rewards.
On the contrary, he said that “he was never paid any reward for the operations and work missions that he had operationally under his command or for protocols, processes and procedures that he directed in the National Army’s Counterintelligence, a matter that is easily verifiable in the files of said agency”.
The former head of the Army’s counterintelligence, who he claims has been decorated 53 times and has two master’s degrees, denounced that since he left office he has been the subject of constant monitoring, surveillance and threats by unknown persons, “presumably from structures of power, who not only seek to dishonour his impeccable military career, easily verifiable in his resume, but also jeopardize his life and personal integrity and that of his entire family.”
He said that thanks to the work he completed, more than 3,000 men were dismissed from the Armed Forces and that is why he is now the target of attacks.
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southfront--2020-05-31--CNN Pushes ‘Russian Meddling’ Version In Its Coverage Of Minneapolis Riots

Finally , CNN found whom to blame for the recent spike of violence in the United States .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ ’ that , according to CNN , should be checked in the case of Minneapolis @ @ @ @ @ the streets : MORE ON THE TOPIC :

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Finally, CNN found whom to blame for the recent spike of violence in the United States. It’s the ‘Russian trace’ that, according to CNN, should be checked in the case of Minneapolis riots.
Here we go again. Fake News @CNN is blaming RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA. They are sick losers with VERY bad ratings! P.S. Can’t blame China because they need the cash? — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 30, 2020
Meanwhile, on the streets:
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southfront--2020-05-31--Syrian Air Force Receives ‘Advanced’ Mig-29 Fighter Jets From Russia

The Syrian Arab News Agency ( SANA ) announced on May 30 that the Syrian Arab Air Force ( SyAAF ) had received a new batch of Mig-29 fighter jets from Russia .
A military source told the state-run agency that the new fighter jets were handed over to the SyAAF during an official ceremony in the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in southern Lattakia .
The source said the fighter jets were “ advanced ” and “ upgraded.
” According to the source , the new Mig-29s will enter service with the SyAAF on June 1 .
The fighter jets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The military source didn ’ t provide the exact number of Mig-29s which were delivered to the SyAAF or share any details on their specifications .
Recently , a number of Mig-29 fighter jets were spotted in the Hmeimim Air Base .
While the U.S. claimed that they were later deployed in Libya , they could be the ones handed over to the SyAAF .
At least 20 Mig-29s were in service with the SyAAF prior to the new delivery .
The Syrian jets were upgraded to special standard , known as SM @ @ @ @ @ @ @ air-to-air missiles ( BVRAAMs ) and precision-guided air-to-surface munitions .
Furthermore , the Mig-29SMs were equipped with active jamming systems .
The military source claimed that the newly delivered Mig-29s are more advanced than the ones which were in service with the SyAAF , which mean they could be Mig-29SMTs or Mig-29Ms .
The new Mig-29s will boost the capabilities of the SyAAF , which failed to impose a no-fly zone over the northwestern region of Greater Idlib during the last confrontation with Turkey .
The delivery of these fighter jets is an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Syria and Russia .
A day earlier , Moscow announced that it will initiate talks with Damascus to secure new bases for its troops on the Syrian coast .
MORE ON THIS TOPIC : • In Video : Turkish Army Foils Infiltration Attempt By Kurdish Fighters In Northeast Syria

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The Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) announced on May 30 that the Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF) had received a new batch of Mig-29 fighter jets from Russia.
A military source told the state-run agency that the new fighter jets were handed over to the SyAAF during an official ceremony in the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in southern Lattakia. The source said the fighter jets were “advanced” and “upgraded.”
“These warplanes, which are more effective than their previous generation, flew from the Hmeimim Air Base to their deployment areas in Syrian air bases,” the source said.
According to the source, the new Mig-29s will enter service with the SyAAF on June 1. The fighter jets will patrol Syria’s airspace.
The military source didn’t provide the exact number of Mig-29s which were delivered to the SyAAF or share any details on their specifications.
Recently, a number of Mig-29 fighter jets were spotted in the Hmeimim Air Base. While the U.S. claimed that they were later deployed in Libya, they could be the ones handed over to the SyAAF.
At least 20 Mig-29s were in service with the SyAAF prior to the new delivery. The Syrian jets were upgraded to special standard, known as SM. This allowed them to fire beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAMs) and precision-guided air-to-surface munitions. Furthermore, the Mig-29SMs were equipped with active jamming systems.
The military source claimed that the newly delivered Mig-29s are more advanced than the ones which were in service with the SyAAF, which mean they could be Mig-29SMTs or Mig-29Ms.
The new Mig-29s will boost the capabilities of the SyAAF, which failed to impose a no-fly zone over the northwestern region of Greater Idlib during the last confrontation with Turkey.
The delivery of these fighter jets is an example of the ever growing partnership between Syria and Russia. A day earlier, Moscow announced that it will initiate talks with Damascus to secure new bases for its troops on the Syrian coast.
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southfront--2020-05-31--Prominent Turkish-Backed Syrian Commander Killed In Libya

On May 30 , the Libyan National Army ( LNA ) announced that its units had eliminated a prominent Turkish-backed Syrian commander .
According to the army , the commander , Murad Abu Hamoud al-Azizi , was killed during clashes on a highway leading to the Tripoli International Airport , a few kilometres south of the capital .
Al-Azizi was leading militants from the Sultan Murad Division in Libya .
The group is one of the Turkish-backed factions which deployed militants in Libya to support the Government of National Accord ( GNA ) upon Turkey ’ s order .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eliminated several Syrian commanders .
One of them was Mohamed Hindawi who was commanding the 2nd Corps of Turkish-backed Syrian militants in Libya .
According to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights ( SOHR ) , a total of 331 Syrian militants have been killed while fighting for the GNA in Libya thus far .
At least 13 militants , including two children , were killed in the last few days only .
Despite the recent losses , Turkey is working to send even more Syrian militants to Libya .
Around 2,300 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ahead of deployment .
MORE ON THIS TOPIC : • U.S. Seizes $ 1.1 Billion Of Russian-Printed Libyan Currency In Joint Operation With Malta

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On May 30, the Libyan National Army (LNA) announced that its units had eliminated a prominent Turkish-backed Syrian commander.
According to the army, the commander, Murad Abu Hamoud al-Azizi, was killed during clashes on a highway leading to the Tripoli International Airport, a few kilometres south of the capital.
عاجل
مقتل القيادي في فرقة السلطان مراد “ابو حمود العزيزي” برصاص احد عناصر الفرقة في #ليبيا pic.twitter.com/YiVVeXW4Yc — ثوار تويتر/ردينة سليم (@SRoudinah) May 29, 2020
Al-Azizi was leading militants from the Sultan Murad Division in Libya. The group is one of the Turkish-backed factions which deployed militants in Libya to support the Government of National Accord (GNA) upon Turkey’s order.
In the last few weeks, the army eliminated several Syrian commanders. One of them was Mohamed Hindawi who was commanding the 2nd Corps of Turkish-backed Syrian militants in Libya.
According to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a total of 331 Syrian militants have been killed while fighting for the GNA in Libya thus far. At least 13 militants, including two children, were killed in the last few days only.
Despite the recent losses, Turkey is working to send even more Syrian militants to Libya. Around 2,300 recruits are now receiving training in Turkey ahead of deployment.
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southfront--2020-05-31--In Videos: Security Forces Hunt Down Group Of Militants In Russia’s Ingushetia

On May 30 , security forces besieged a group of militants in the town of Sunga in Russia ’ s @ @ @ @ @ militants resisted detention and engaged security personnel in a firefight .
According to Russian media @ @ @ @ @ .
2 militants were eliminated .
There were no casualties among security personnel or civilians @ @ @ @ @ :

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On May 30, security forces besieged a group of militants in the town of Sunga in Russia’s Republic of Ingushetia. The militants resisted detention and engaged security personnel in a firefight. According to Russian media, the firefight already ended. 2 militants were eliminated. There were no casualties among security personnel or civilians.
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southfront--2020-05-31--In Video: Turkish Army Foils Infiltration Attempt By Kurdish Fighters In Northeast Syria

The Turkish Ministry of National Defense announced on May 30 that its forces had foiled an infiltration attempt by Kurdish @ @ @ @ @ The ministry also released a short video showing Turkish forces detecting the infiltration attempt with @ @ @ @ @ drone .
Then , the infiltrators were targeted with heavy howitzers .
The U.S.-backed Syrian @ @ @ @ @ , which is affiliated with the YPG , is yet to comment on the Turkish @ @ @ @ @ .
Earlier this year , Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria began launching attacks on Turkish @ @ @ @ @ region .
In a recent incident , two Kurdish fighters were captured while attempting to @ @ @ @ @ the town of Ras al-Ayn using DIY “ invisibility suits.
” MORE ON THIS TOPIC @

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The Turkish Ministry of National Defense announced on May 30 that its forces had foiled an infiltration attempt by Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria.
“Five terrorists of the PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party]\YPG [the People’s Protection Units] organization were neutralized while attempting to sneak into Operation Peace Spring region,” the ministry said in a press release.
The ministry also released a short video showing Turkish forces detecting the infiltration attempt with ground-based surveillance systems and a drone. Then, the infiltrators were targeted with heavy howitzers.
Komandolarımız terör örgütlerine geçit vermiyor. Huzur ve güven ortamını bozmak için Barış Pınarı bölgesinde sızma girişiminde bulunan 5 PKK/YPG’li terörist etkisiz hale getirildi. #MSB #TSK pic.twitter.com/Eq0MOHI5YY — T.C. Millî Savunma Bakanlığı (@tcsavunma) May 30, 2020
The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is affiliated with the YPG, is yet to comment on the Turkish Ministry of National Defense claims.
Earlier this year, Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria began launching attacks on Turkish forces occupying parts of the region. In a recent incident, two Kurdish fighters were captured while attempting to infiltrate a Turkish position near the town of Ras al-Ayn using DIY “invisibility suits.”
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southfront--2020-05-31--U.S. Seizes $1.1 Billion Of Russian-Printed Libyan Currency In Joint Operation With Malta

The U.S. Department of State announced on May 30 that $ 1.1 billion worth of “ counterfeit ” Libyan currency were seized on May 26 in a joint operation with Malta ’ s authorities .
In an official statement , a spokesman for the department said that the currency was printed in Russia by the state-owned Joint Stock Company Goznak .
The notes were printed upon request from the House of Representatives ( HoR ) Central Bank in eastern Libya .
The spokesman , Morgan Ortagus , called the bank an “ illegitimate parallel entity , ” stressing that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bank , the Central Bank of Libya , is the country ’ s only legitimate central bank .
The HoR ’ s bank has been printing notes in Russia since 2016 .
The step was taken in response to a shortage of cash in the eastern part of the country .
The GNA , which controls the northwestern part , is currently in conflict with the HoR and the Libyan National Army ( LNA ) .
In the last few months , the GNA ’ s central bank was accused of misconduct on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claim that the bank is selling and transferring hard currency as well as gold to the Central Bank of Turkey in return for the Turkish military support for GNA forces .
The shortage of currency in Libya worsened in the recent days , with the Dinar losing some of its value .
Ramzi al-Agha , a director in the HoR ’ s bank in eastern Libya , claims that the recent influx of Syrian militants to Libya caused the new crisis as the demand for cash skyrocketed .
The U.S. is attempting to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s economic problems , which are first of all a result of the 2011 NATO intervention in the country .
Washington is worried that Russia may be preparing to provide a direct military support to the HoR and the LNA .
MORE ON THIS TOPIC : • Prospects For Resolving Conflict And Stabilizing Political Situation In Libya

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The U.S. Department of State announced on May 30 that $1.1 billion worth of “counterfeit” Libyan currency were seized on May 26 in a joint operation with Malta’s authorities.
In an official statement, a spokesman for the department said that the currency was printed in Russia by the state-owned Joint Stock Company Goznak. The notes were printed upon request from the House of Representatives (HoR) Central Bank in eastern Libya.
The spokesman, Morgan Ortagus, called the bank an “illegitimate parallel entity,” stressing that the Government of National Accord (GNA) bank, the Central Bank of Libya, is the country’s only legitimate central bank.
“The influx of counterfeit, Russian-printed Libyan currency in recent years has exacerbated Libya’s economic challenges,” the spokesman said, adding “This incident once again highlights the need for Russia to cease its malign and destabilizing actions in Libya.”
The HoR’s bank has been printing notes in Russia since 2016. The step was taken in response to a shortage of cash in the eastern part of the country. The GNA, which controls the northwestern part, is currently in conflict with the HoR and the Libyan National Army (LNA).
In the last few months, the GNA’s central bank was accused of misconduct on many occasions. Pro-HoR and LNA sources claim that the bank is selling and transferring hard currency as well as gold to the Central Bank of Turkey in return for the Turkish military support for GNA forces.
The shortage of currency in Libya worsened in the recent days, with the Dinar losing some of its value. Ramzi al-Agha, a director in the HoR’s bank in eastern Libya, claims that the recent influx of Syrian militants to Libya caused the new crisis as the demand for cash skyrocketed.
The U.S. is attempting to blame Russia and the LNA for Libya’s economic problems, which are first of all a result of the 2011 NATO intervention in the country. Washington is worried that Russia may be preparing to provide a direct military support to the HoR and the LNA.
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southfront--2020-05-31--Drone Strikes Target Militant Positions In Syria’s Greater Idlib

Late on May 31 , an unidentified unmanned combat aerial vehicle ( UCAV ) carried out a series of airstrikes on militants ’ positions in the al-Zawiya Mount in southern Idlib .
According to opposition sources , the airstrikes targeted the eastern part of al-Zayiya and the outskirt of the town of Benin .
Some activists claimed that the UCAV was belonging to the Russian Aerospace Forces .
While there are numerous reports that Russia possess such capabilities , officially the Russian military has not announced it operates UCAVs .
In the last few months , a series of drones @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A week ago , a field commander of the Turkish-backed National Front for Liberation , known as Hisham Abu Ahmad , was killed in the region ’ s southern part as a result of a drone strike .
No side has claimed responsibility for any of the recent strikes so far .
However , militants usually blame Russia and Iran for them .
Tensions are mounting in Greater Idlib , where Turkey deployed thousands of troops as well as loads of heavy weapons .
According to opposition sources , the Syrian Arab Army @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the region , possibly to launch a new operation soon .
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Late on May 31, an unidentified unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) carried out a series of airstrikes on militants’ positions in the al-Zawiya Mount in southern Idlib.
According to opposition sources, the airstrikes targeted the eastern part of al-Zayiya and the outskirt of the town of Benin.
Some activists claimed that the UCAV was belonging to the Russian Aerospace Forces. While there are numerous reports that Russia possess such capabilities, officially the Russian military has not announced it operates UCAVs.
In the last few months, a series of drones strikes targeted militants in Greater Idlib. A week ago, a field commander of the Turkish-backed National Front for Liberation, known as Hisham Abu Ahmad, was killed in the region’s southern part as a result of a drone strike.
No side has claimed responsibility for any of the recent strikes so far. However, militants usually blame Russia and Iran for them.
Tensions are mounting in Greater Idlib, where Turkey deployed thousands of troops as well as loads of heavy weapons. According to opposition sources, the Syrian Arab Army is now amassing a strike force in the region, possibly to launch a new operation soon.
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southfront--2020-05-31--GNA Supporters Claim Lists With Russian PMCs Names Were Found In Southern Tripoli

On May 31 , supporters of the Government of National Accord ( GNA ) in Libya released photos of what they claimed to be lists of Russian private military contractors ( PMCs ) fighting for the Libyan National Army ( LNA ) .
The lists were allegedly found by GNA forces in the Yarmouk Camp south of the capital , Tripoli .
Heavy clashes between GNA forces and the LNA have been ongoing around the camp for several weeks now .
While GNA supporters claimed that the lists contain names of Russian PMCs , a quick look at the lists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arabic ones .
The Arabian names were translated to Russian , likely using some translation app ( or just via Google Translate ) .
The patronym of each alleged PMC was “ Russianized ” in a weird , desperate attempt to make the names more Russian .
The names were first written in Arabic order : first name , patronym then surname .
In the Russian translation , the format was changed to surname , nameand then a Russianized patronym .
For example , one of the names was changed from Shadi Ali @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arabic to Khalil Shadi “ Alievich ” [ Халил Шади Алиевич ] in Russian .
In official documents , names are not manipulated like this .
This is a one more indication that the lists likely were forged by GNA supporters or fighters .
There is no secret that some PMCs operate on the side of the LNA .
Nevertheless , their presence is very limited .
The GNA , that ’ s employing more than 11,000 Turkish-backed Syrian militants ( many of them linked with various al-Qaeda-style groups ) , is clearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to justify its own reliance on foreign forces .
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On May 31, supporters of the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya released photos of what they claimed to be lists of Russian private military contractors (PMCs) fighting for the Libyan National Army (LNA).
The lists were allegedly found by GNA forces in the Yarmouk Camp south of the capital, Tripoli. Heavy clashes between GNA forces and the LNA have been ongoing around the camp for several weeks now.
While GNA supporters claimed that the lists contain names of Russian PMCs, a quick look at the lists reveals that the names are in fact Arabic ones.
List of Russian mercenaries found at Yarmouk Camp in southern Tripoli. pic.twitter.com/CsGiQoqb3R — Levent Kemal (@leventkemaI) May 31, 2020
The Arabian names were translated to Russian, likely using some translation app (or just via Google Translate). The patronym of each alleged PMC was “Russianized” in a weird, desperate attempt to make the names more Russian.
The names were first written in Arabic order: first name, patronym then surname. In the Russian translation, the format was changed to surname, nameand then a Russianized patronym.
For example, one of the names was changed from Shadi Ali Khalil [شادي علي خليل] in Arabic to Khalil Shadi “Alievich” [Халил Шади Алиевич] in Russian. In official documents, names are not manipulated like this. This is a one more indication that the lists likely were forged by GNA supporters or fighters.
There is no secret that some PMCs operate on the side of the LNA. Nevertheless, their presence is very limited. The GNA, that’s employing more than 11,000 Turkish-backed Syrian militants (many of them linked with various al-Qaeda-style groups), is clearly attempting to exaggerate the issue in order to justify its own reliance on foreign forces.
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southfront--2020-05-31--Saudi-Backed Forces Shoot Down Houthis’ Drone In Central Yemen

On May 30 , the Yemeni National Army , which is backed by the Saudi-led coalition , shot down an unmanned aerial vehicle ( UAV ) of the Houthis .
Citing a military source , the UAE-based al-Arabiya TV reported the UAV was shot down with air-defense means over the central Yemeni province of Ma ’ rib .
Local sources in Ma ’ rib shared a photo of the downed UAV , which appeared to be of the Samad-1 type .
This type , which is equipped with an electro-optical system , is usually used for reconnaissance missions .
Yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be also used as a kamikaze drone .
The Samad-1 ’ s design is identical to that of Lebanon ’ s Hezbollah Mirsad .
UAVs of the same type were also spotted in Syria and most recently in Iraq .
Earlier this week , an armed variant of the UAV crashed in the western Iraqi province of Diyala .
According to al-Arabiya , this was the second drone of the Houthis to be shot down over Ma ’ rib by the Yemeni National Army this month .
With support from Iran , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last two years .
The group is now operating a variety of UAVs , which are capable of carrying out reconnaissance and combat missions .
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On May 30, the Yemeni National Army, which is backed by the Saudi-led coalition, shot down an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) of the Houthis.
Citing a military source, the UAE-based al-Arabiya TV reported the UAV was shot down with air-defense means over the central Yemeni province of Ma’rib.
Local sources in Ma’rib shared a photo of the downed UAV, which appeared to be of the Samad-1 type. This type, which is equipped with an electro-optical system, is usually used for reconnaissance missions. Yet, it is thought that Samad-1 can be also used as a kamikaze drone.
The Samad-1’s design is identical to that of Lebanon’s Hezbollah Mirsad. UAVs of the same type were also spotted in Syria and most recently in Iraq. Earlier this week, an armed variant of the UAV crashed in the western Iraqi province of Diyala.
According to al-Arabiya, this was the second drone of the Houthis to be shot down over Ma’rib by the Yemeni National Army this month.
With support from Iran, the Houthis aerial capabilities grew significantly during the last two years. The group is now operating a variety of UAVs, which are capable of carrying out reconnaissance and combat missions.
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southfront--2020-05-31--The Saker: “Did Trump Just Cancel a Potential Double-War?”

Written by The Saker ; Originally appeared at The Unz Review At this time of writing , it is too early to declare the danger over , but at least three out of five Iranian tankers have made it safely to Venezuela ( confirmation from and ) .
Furthermore , while we should never say “ never ” , it appears exceedingly unlikely that the US would let three tankers pass only to then try to impede the arrival of the other two .
So it ain ’ t over until its over , but as of right now things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Besides , this is mostly a symbolic issue .
While these 5 tankers will make a difference , it won ’ t be a huge one , especially considering the devastating consequences which the US sanctions , sabotage and subversion have inflicted on Venezuela .
Still , symbols are important , if only because they create a precedent .
In fact , I would argue that the latest climbdown by Trump is no different than all his other climbdowns : Trump has had a very consistent record of threatening fire and brimstone before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he did that many times now , we have to wonder whether this strategy is effective or not ?
One could argue that this strategy could be described by saying that you put the maximum pressure on the other side in the hope that the bluff will entice the adversary to fold .
This could be a semi-credible argument where it not for a very simple but crucial problem : so far the other guys have never folded .
In other words , Trump ’ s bluff has been called over and over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to quietly deflate .
Some will say that this only proves that Trump is truly a peace-loving President who , unlike his predecessors , does not want to go to war .
But then , what about the cruise missile strikes on Syria ?
What about the murder of Soleimani ?
Truth be told , the kindest thing we can say about this strategy ( assuming that it is a strategy to begin with , not the evidence of a total lack of one ) is that it is tantamount to yelling “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ theater : the fact that Trump did not set any movie theater ablaze hardly justifies his yelling “ fire ” in such a dangerous environment .
The perfect example of this kind of irresponsible behavior is the murder of General Soleimani which truly brought the US and Iran a millimeter away from a real , full-scale war .
Furthermore , while I salute Trump ’ s climbing down following the Iranian strikes , I also believe that in doing so he hurt the international image of the US .
Why ?
Think about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ever ( if I am not mistaken ) that the US was the object of a major military strike coming from another state-actor and did not retaliate .
In the past and until this Spring , the US always held the view that if anybody dares to mess with it this would result in very serious consequences .
Thus the US upheld a world order in which some where a lot more equal than others .
Specifically , “ others ” had to meekly accept US strikes and shut up whereas Uncle Shmuel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no retaliation .
By “ accepting ” the Iranian counter-strike , Trump did essentially place an “ equal ” sign between Iran and the US .
He probably never understood that , but in the region this was understood by all .
Just as Hezbollah destroyed the myth of Israeli impunity , Iran destroyed the myth of US impunity .
Still , I will always prefer the politician who does not start a war ( for whatever reason ) to one who would .
I also have no doubt whatsoever that Hillary would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , wars .
But the fact that Hillary would have been even worse than Trump is hardly a reason to start fawning about Trump ’ s brilliant “ 5D chess ” genius or peace-loving policies… Trump reminds of a guy pointing a gun a people in the street only to later say “ but it was a toy gun , I never meant to really shoot anybody ” .
This is definitely better than shooting people with a real gun , but this is hardly a sign of maturity or intelligence .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( let ’ s assume for argument ’ s sake that this is a strategy of some kind ) : each time the “ indispensable nation ” and “ sole hyperpower ” has to climb down , it increasingly looks like a paper tiger .
Not looking like such a paper tiger is probably the mean reason behind “ Every ten years or so , the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall , just to show the world we mean business “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sense , Ledeen ’ s strategy makes a lot more sense than what Trump has been doing .
As Marx famously said , “ History repeats itself , first as tragedy , second as farce “ .
The outcome of what some now call the “ Battle of Macuto Bay ” is a perfect example of this : if the Bay of Pigs was the “ root case ” then the disaster in Grenada was the tragedy and the Battle of Macuto Bay the real farce .
Humor can be a devastating weapon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Soviet Union ( in the late Brezhnev years and after ) knows how the Russian people ridiculed the Soviet leaders with literally thousands of jokes .
A real imperialist would much rather be hated than ridiculed , and while Trump himself probably does not realize that he is the laughingstock of the planet , his aides and deep state bosses most definitely do and that is very , very dangerous .
Because the pressure to , once again , “ pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my article “ Each “ Click ” Brings Us One Step Closer to the “ Bang !
” for a fuller discussion of this ) .
Besides , finding an even smaller and weaker country than Venezuela will be hard ( maybe the ?
or Grenada again ?
who knows ? )
.
And potentially very dangerous .
The other problem is predictability .
Any international system requires that its most powerful actors be predictable .
In contrast , when a major international actors acts in what appears to be unpredictable , irrational @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entire stability of the system at risk .
This , by the way , is also why it is so disastrous that the US has withdrawn from so many international organizations or treaties : the participation in international organizations and treaties indicate that the US is willing to play by the same rules as everybody else .
The fact that the US is ditching so many of its former international obligations only shows that the US has gone rogue and is from now on totally unpredictable .
Finally , there are also lessons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being that when confronted with a determined adversary , the Empire tries to bluff , but eventually folds .
True , Moscow has to be much more careful than Tehran simply because the consequences of a US-Russian war would be dramatically worse than even a major conflict in the Middle-East .
Yet it is also true that over the past years the Russian armed forces did have the time to prepare for such a conflict and that now Russia is ready for pretty much anything the US could try to throw at her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In contrast to the military posture of Russia , the political environment in Russia has changed for the worse : there is now a potentially very dangerous “ hardline ” opposition to Putin which I have christened the “ 6th column ” , as opposed to the liberal and pro-western 5th column .
What these two “ columns ” have in common is that they both will categorically oppose pretty much anything and everything Putin does .
The 6th column , in particular , has a seething hatred for Putin which is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5th column usually express .
Check out , who prefers the term “ emo-Marxists ” and who very accurately describes these folks .
Whether we think of them as 6th-columnists or emo-Marxists does not matter , what matters is that these folks are eager to act like a soundboard for any and all anti-Putin rumors and fakes .
While Putin certainly has his flaws , and while the economic policies of the Medvedev , and now Mishustin , government are a far cry from what most Russians would want , it is also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are objectively doing the bidding of the Empire , which could present a real problem if the current pandemic-induced economic crisis in Russia is not tackled more effectively by the government .
I have always said that Iran , while being much weaker than Russia , has consistently shown much more courage in its dealings with the Empire than Russia .
Furthermore , Iran ’ s policies are primarily dictated by moral and spiritual considerations ( like in the case of Iran ’ s principled stance on occupied Palestine ) while Russian policies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which is really a euphemism for self-serving ) .
But then , Iran is an Islamic Republic whereas Russia still has to develop some kind of unifying and original worldview .
For all his innumerable negative character traits and other flaws , it remains true that Trump has not launched a major war ( so far ) .
Yes , he has brought the world to the brink several times , but so far he has not plunged the world into a major conflict .
How much of the credit for this truly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debatable ( maybe cooler heads in the military prevailed , I think of folks like General Mattis who , reportedly , was the one who stopped the US from seriously attacking Syria and settled for a symbolic strike ) .
Some Russian analysts ( Andrei Sidorov ) even believe that the US is in no condition to fight any war , no matter how small .
Furthermore , most ( all ? )
Russian analysts also believe that the US is fully committed to a full-spectrum information and economic war to try to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I think that it would be fair to say that nobody in Russia believes that the relationship with Trump ’ s US can , or will , improve .
The tone in China is also changing , especially since the US has now launched a major anti-China strategic PSYOP .
In other words , the US is merrily continuing down its current road which leads it to a simultaneous confrontation with not one , or even two , countries , but with a list of countries which seems to grow every day .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ this case Trump appears to have canceled two wars , we should not assume that he won ’ t soon start one , if only to deflect the blame for his total mismanagement of the COVID19 crisis .
Should that happen , we can only hope that all the “ resistance countries ” and movement will provide as much support as possible to whomever the Empire attacks next .
MORE ON THE TOPIC : • US Charges Former Member Of Venezuela ’ s National Assembly With ‘ Narcoterrorism ’

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Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review
At this time of writing, it is too early to declare the danger over, but at least three out of five Iranian tankers have made it safely to Venezuela (confirmation from TeleSur and PressTV ). Furthermore, while we should never say “never”, it appears exceedingly unlikely that the US would let three tankers pass only to then try to impede the arrival of the other two. So it ain’t over until its over, but as of right now things look way better than last week.
Besides, this is mostly a symbolic issue. While these 5 tankers will make a difference, it won’t be a huge one, especially considering the devastating consequences which the US sanctions, sabotage and subversion have inflicted on Venezuela.
Still, symbols are important, if only because they create a precedent. In fact, I would argue that the latest climbdown by Trump is no different than all his other climbdowns: Trump has had a very consistent record of threatening fire and brimstone before quietly deflating walking away. And since he did that many times now, we have to wonder whether this strategy is effective or not?
One could argue that this strategy could be described by saying that you put the maximum pressure on the other side in the hope that the bluff will entice the adversary to fold. This could be a semi-credible argument where it not for a very simple but crucial problem: so far the other guys have never folded. In other words, Trump’s bluff has been called over and over again, and each time Trump had to quietly deflate.
Some will say that this only proves that Trump is truly a peace-loving President who, unlike his predecessors, does not want to go to war. But then, what about the cruise missile strikes on Syria? What about the murder of Soleimani?
Truth be told, the kindest thing we can say about this strategy (assuming that it is a strategy to begin with, not the evidence of a total lack of one) is that it is tantamount to yelling “fire!” in a crowded movie theater: the fact that Trump did not set any movie theater ablaze hardly justifies his yelling “fire” in such a dangerous environment. The perfect example of this kind of irresponsible behavior is the murder of General Soleimani which truly brought the US and Iran a millimeter away from a real, full-scale war.
Furthermore, while I salute Trump’s climbing down following the Iranian strikes, I also believe that in doing so he hurt the international image of the US. Why? Think about this: this is the first time ever (if I am not mistaken) that the US was the object of a major military strike coming from another state-actor and did not retaliate. In the past and until this Spring, the US always held the view that if anybody dares to mess with it this would result in very serious consequences. Thus the US upheld a world order in which some where a lot more equal than others. Specifically, “others” had to meekly accept US strikes and shut up whereas Uncle Shmuel could strike left and right and expect no retaliation.
By “accepting” the Iranian counter-strike, Trump did essentially place an “equal” sign between Iran and the US. He probably never understood that, but in the region this was understood by all.
Just as Hezbollah destroyed the myth of Israeli impunity, Iran destroyed the myth of US impunity.
Still, I will always prefer the politician who does not start a war (for whatever reason) to one who would. I also have no doubt whatsoever that Hillary would have started one, or even several, wars. But the fact that Hillary would have been even worse than Trump is hardly a reason to start fawning about Trump’s brilliant “5D chess” genius or peace-loving policies…
Trump reminds of a guy pointing a gun a people in the street only to later say “but it was a toy gun, I never meant to really shoot anybody”. This is definitely better than shooting people with a real gun, but this is hardly a sign of maturity or intelligence.
The other problem with this “strategy” (let’s assume for argument’s sake that this is a strategy of some kind): each time the “indispensable nation” and “sole hyperpower” has to climb down, it increasingly looks like a paper tiger. Not looking like such a paper tiger is probably the mean reason behind Michael Ledeen’s famous words “Every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business“. In a strictly evil and imperialistic sense, Ledeen’s strategy makes a lot more sense than what Trump has been doing.
As Marx famously said, “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce“. The outcome of what some now call the “Battle of Macuto Bay” is a perfect example of this: if the Bay of Pigs was the “root case” then the disaster in Grenada was the tragedy and the Battle of Macuto Bay the real farce.
Humor can be a devastating weapon and anybody who has studied the late Soviet Union (in the late Brezhnev years and after) knows how the Russian people ridiculed the Soviet leaders with literally thousands of jokes.
A real imperialist would much rather be hated than ridiculed, and while Trump himself probably does not realize that he is the laughingstock of the planet, his aides and deep state bosses most definitely do and that is very, very dangerous.
Why?
Because the pressure to, once again, “ pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall” increases with each climbdown (see my article “Each “Click” Brings Us One Step Closer to the “Bang!” for a fuller discussion of this).
Besides, finding an even smaller and weaker country than Venezuela will be hard (maybe the Island of Saba ? or Grenada again? who knows?). And potentially very dangerous.
The other problem is predictability. Any international system requires that its most powerful actors be predictable. In contrast, when a major international actors acts in what appears to be unpredictable, irrational or irresponsible manner, this puts the entire stability of the system at risk.
This, by the way, is also why it is so disastrous that the US has withdrawn from so many international organizations or treaties: the participation in international organizations and treaties indicate that the US is willing to play by the same rules as everybody else. The fact that the US is ditching so many of its former international obligations only shows that the US has gone rogue and is from now on totally unpredictable.
Finally, there are also lessons for Moscow here, the main one being that when confronted with a determined adversary, the Empire tries to bluff, but eventually folds. True, Moscow has to be much more careful than Tehran simply because the consequences of a US-Russian war would be dramatically worse than even a major conflict in the Middle-East. Yet it is also true that over the past years the Russian armed forces did have the time to prepare for such a conflict and that now Russia is ready for pretty much anything the US could try to throw at her, at least in purely military terms.
In contrast to the military posture of Russia, the political environment in Russia has changed for the worse: there is now a potentially very dangerous “hardline” opposition to Putin which I have christened the “6th column”, as opposed to the liberal and pro-western 5th column. What these two “columns” have in common is that they both will categorically oppose pretty much anything and everything Putin does. The 6th column, in particular, has a seething hatred for Putin which is even more rabid than what the liberal 5th column usually express. Check out this excellent video by Ruslan Ostashko , who prefers the term “emo-Marxists” and who very accurately describes these folks. Whether we think of them as 6th-columnists or emo-Marxists does not matter, what matters is that these folks are eager to act like a soundboard for any and all anti-Putin rumors and fakes. While Putin certainly has his flaws, and while the economic policies of the Medvedev, and now Mishustin, government are a far cry from what most Russians would want, it is also true that these two “columns” are objectively doing the bidding of the Empire, which could present a real problem if the current pandemic-induced economic crisis in Russia is not tackled more effectively by the government.
I have always said that Iran, while being much weaker than Russia, has consistently shown much more courage in its dealings with the Empire than Russia. Furthermore, Iran’s policies are primarily dictated by moral and spiritual considerations (like in the case of Iran’s principled stance on occupied Palestine) while Russian policies are much more “pragmatic” (which is really a euphemism for self-serving). But then, Iran is an Islamic Republic whereas Russia still has to develop some kind of unifying and original worldview.
Conclusion:
For all his innumerable negative character traits and other flaws, it remains true that Trump has not launched a major war (so far). Yes, he has brought the world to the brink several times, but so far he has not plunged the world into a major conflict. How much of the credit for this truly should go personally to him is very debatable (maybe cooler heads in the military prevailed, I think of folks like General Mattis who, reportedly, was the one who stopped the US from seriously attacking Syria and settled for a symbolic strike). Some Russian analysts (Andrei Sidorov) even believe that the US is in no condition to fight any war, no matter how small. Furthermore, most (all?) Russian analysts also believe that the US is fully committed to a full-spectrum information and economic war to try to economically strangle both Russia and China. I think that it would be fair to say that nobody in Russia believes that the relationship with Trump’s US can, or will, improve. The tone in China is also changing, especially since the US has now launched a major anti-China strategic PSYOP . In other words, the US is merrily continuing down its current road which leads it to a simultaneous confrontation with not one, or even two, countries, but with a list of countries which seems to grow every day. So while it is true that in this case Trump appears to have canceled two wars, we should not assume that he won’t soon start one, if only to deflect the blame for his total mismanagement of the COVID19 crisis. Should that happen, we can only hope that all the “resistance countries” and movement will provide as much support as possible to whomever the Empire attacks next.
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