southfront--2020-10-21--Turkish-backed Militants Were Preparing To Fight In Nagorno-Karabakh From At Least July

Based on the article released by observers.france24.com Since the end of September , the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia for control over Nagorno-Karabakh has raged despite the ceasefire agreements established in early and mid October .
Several videos show the presence and involvement of Syrian mercenaries , recruited and deployed by Turkey , to fight alongside the Azerbaijani army .
The Turkish and Azerbaijani authorities categorically deny their involvement in these recruitments , despite the testimonies of several Syrian fighters collected by international media .
At least four videos geotagged by journalists and specialists in geolocation attest to the presence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Azerbaijani enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh .
To testify that all of this pre-planned far in advance , a video shared since September 25th by Telegram channels shows a training camp for Syrian fighters preparing to leave for Azerbaijan .
Young mercenaries can be heard discussing the Aleppo or Idlib campaign in Arabic with a northwest Syrian accent , according to local journalists .
Using elements in the excerpt , the surfer “ Obretix ” , a geolocation specialist , determined the location of the footage .
It is a military camp near @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far from the Turkish border in northern Syria , which was formed by the Free Syrian Army in 2016 .
The factions in place in Hawar Kilis had already participated in the Turkish military operation Euphrates Shield , carried out in north-western Syria in the spring of 2017 against both Bashar al-Assad ’ s government and ISIS .
As such the Syrian Arab Army was fighting against both Turkey and the terrorists .
On September 27 , another video emerged on Syrian social media .
It shows a convoy of 4x4s with Syrian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Turkish , by locals and the author of the video .
The fighters brandish their assault rifles and chant : Internet users and media specializing in geolocation have managed to find the place where this first video was shot thanks to visual elements : a boulevard in the city of Horadiz in southern Azerbaijan , located 4 km from the Iranian border .
Another video , which was picked up on October 3 by local Aleppo news pages , was filmed by a Syrian mercenary for his colleagues in Syria .
A link @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this extract with the division of Sultan Murad , a division of the Syrian National Army with Turkmen origins .
In the background of the video , one can hear folk music praising this same division .
The author invites his mates to dance and pose for the video .
They then encourage the rest of the fighters who remained in Syria to volunteer : “ You are welcome , join us for our fun together against Armenia !
” The latter say , all smiles , to the camera .
Some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The fourth video , shot by a fighter from the Hamza division , affiliated with the al-Farouq brigade ( created in 2011 ) , around October 3 and circulating on social networks since October 10 , shows the bodies of soldiers Armenians lying on the ground .
Bellingcat collective journalist Alexander McKeever geolocated the scene : it takes place near Marjan , a village in southern Azerbaijan , near the Iranian border , under Azerbaijani control .
Everything that “ investigative website ” Bellingcat claims should be taken with a massive grain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appears factual .
Although Syrian fighters widely post videos of their involvement in the conflict on social media , the Azeri and Turkish defense ministries categorically deny their presence in Nagorno-Karabakh .
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights ( SOHR ) , at least 134 Syrian mercenaries were killed in Azerbaijan as of October 18 , including 92 who were repatriated .
The same source claims that at least 2,050 mercenaries have been transported from Syria since the start of the armed conflict , in groups of 400 fighters at a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Independent , which was able to speak to mercenaries who left for Azerbaijan , the first recruitments were scheduled for July , at the start of tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia .
As a result , the combatants would have been promised a sum of between 1,200 dollars ( approximately 1,000 euros ) and 1,500 dollars ( approximately 1,250 € ) .
A substantial salary in a country where 83 % of the population lives below the poverty line , according to a 2019 United Nations report .
Fanny Alarcon is an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ journalist for the journal Intelligence Online .
She explains : “ It becomes almost natural for Turkey to retrain its fighters in armed conflict .
They are not expensive , they are trained : it is easy labor .
These fighters need a salary and know how to fight .
Turkey officially intervened in 2017 , 2018 and 2019 in Northeastern Syria .
During each of these operations , she did not want to directly involve her army and resorted to these Syrian fighters , who in turn recycled themselves into henchmen against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nagorno-Karabakh conflict , it is not as assumed support as in Libya or northern Syria .
It is a progressive support and at first glance , the Azeri and Turkish authorities have no interest in using the Syrian mercenaries : it does not give them a good image , especially when they put themselves in scene.
” Of course , these aren ’ t militants , there ’ s no “ ideology ” according to reports .
They are “ moderate opposition ” that behead people just because Turkey pays them , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least that is the usual rhetoric .
“ Each of these groups has a position : they are not jihadists .
Turkey does not employ such people .
These are factions which were formed at the start of the conflict and which originated from northwestern Syria , especially Aleppo .
They claim responsibility for the FSA which was , during the Syrian civil war , a moderate insurgency against the Syrian regime , backed by NATO .
When , then , the ANS was structured by Turkey in 2017 to bring together the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ultimately , the motivation of Syrian mercenaries is to get paid , to have a job and a salary .
Some of them seem to doubt their commitment on the ground .
For others , they are just mercenaries whose job is to fight , ” Fanny Alarcon explained .
Other video clips , from Syria , show recruiting speeches led by sheikhs or faction leaders in charge of this mission in the towns of the northwest , particularly affected by war and extreme poverty .
This excerpt , verified by local media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ al-Hadid , a town in the Aleppo region , a few kilometers from the Turkish border .
Sheikhs and faction leaders recruit militants , but also the claim that there ’ s no ideology somehow holds water .
The speech took place in a tent set up near the town of Jindires for the funeral of a mercenary who died in Nagorno-Karabakh .
“ The umma is in peril today , our fight in Azerbaijan is the same as in the Levant .
It is your [ religious ] duty to go into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Sheikh sermonized in his speech .
“ Recruitment is done through the Turkish intelligence service , which structures the ANS and designates faction leaders to bring them to Turkey and go to Armenia [ as the Arabic-speaking agency Stepnews has shown ] .
This is played out through this state service , and not through private companies like the Russian group Wagner , which recruited mercenaries to fight in the Central African Republic or in Venezuela [ as Mondafrique has shown , editor ’ s note ] .
The religious discourse has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2011 .
The rise of radicalism is thus at the center of the structuring of the Syrian insurgency .
In 2020 , we do not see a faction that does not use religious discourse , this is basic data , it is not really a lever .
These groups , from mercenaries over the years , have become the most powerful ( such as Ahrar Al-cham and Jabhat al-Nosra ) .
They were very religious and rallied a lot of fighters .
So the rest of the factions had to get down to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Many of these individuals who are part of actual terrorist formations are still being absolved from any guilt , because they are “ poor ” , instead of attempting to rebuild their country , or fight on behalf of the authorities to liberate all areas of Syria have become tools of Turkey in spreading chaos elsewhere .
MORE ON THE TOPIC : • Azerbaijan Says It Destroyed Armenian MLRS , Media Understands It As RS-24 Yars ICBM

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Based on the article released by observers.france24.com
Since the end of September, the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia for control over Nagorno-Karabakh has raged despite the ceasefire agreements established in early and mid October.
Several videos show the presence and involvement of Syrian mercenaries, recruited and deployed by Turkey, to fight alongside the Azerbaijani army.
The Turkish and Azerbaijani authorities categorically deny their involvement in these recruitments, despite the testimonies of several Syrian fighters collected by international media.
At least four videos geotagged by journalists and specialists in geolocation attest to the presence of Syrian fighters dispatched to the front in the Azerbaijani enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
To testify that all of this pre-planned far in advance, a video shared since September 25th by Telegram channels shows a training camp for Syrian fighters preparing to leave for Azerbaijan.
Young mercenaries can be heard discussing the Aleppo or Idlib campaign in Arabic with a northwest Syrian accent, according to local journalists.
Using elements in the excerpt, the surfer “Obretix”, a geolocation specialist, determined the location of the footage. It is a military camp near the village of Hawar Kilis, not far from the Turkish border in northern Syria, which was formed by the Free Syrian Army in 2016.
geolocation of SNA mercenaries https://t.co/u8xCcmXFBw training at Hawar Kilis military crossing on the border to Turkey https://t.co/xvQ4ZFZr3a allegedly prior to their deployment to Azerbaijan (h/t @AKMcKeever) pic.twitter.com/LRQcv1VOl3 — Samir (@obretix) October 8, 2020
The factions in place in Hawar Kilis had already participated in the Turkish military operation Euphrates Shield, carried out in north-western Syria in the spring of 2017 against both Bashar al-Assad’s government and ISIS. As such the Syrian Arab Army was fighting against both Turkey and the terrorists.
On September 27, another video emerged on Syrian social media.
It shows a convoy of 4x4s with Syrian fighters standing there, encouraged, in Turkish, by locals and the author of the video.
The fighters brandish their assault rifles and chant:
“[The prophet] Muhammad [will] always be our guide!”, A battle cry characteristic of the battalions of the Syrian National Army (ANS), of which several factions were part of the ‘Free Syrian Army (ASL, a coalition of armed Syrian rebel groups that formed in 2011 to fight the Syrian regime.
This video now floating around Telegram claims to show Syrian mercenaries in Azerbaijan and it awfully looks like it. pic.twitter.com/M0kR2QI238 — Woofers (@NotWoofers) September 27, 2020
Internet users and media specializing in geolocation have managed to find the place where this first video was shot thanks to visual elements: a boulevard in the city of Horadiz in southern Azerbaijan, located 4 km from the Iranian border.
Another aspect which makes this geolocation harder is that there are no pictures I could find of the direct spot I assume the person filming is standing. However, through the use of different landmarks I am 90% I found it. https://t.co/fV3OJp6GUB — Leon L. (@LeonL62342286) September 28, 2020
Another video, which was picked up on October 3 by local Aleppo news pages, was filmed by a Syrian mercenary for his colleagues in Syria.
A link was established between the combatants present in this extract with the division of Sultan Murad, a division of the Syrian National Army with Turkmen origins. In the background of the video, one can hear folk music praising this same division.
The author invites his mates to dance and pose for the video. They then encourage the rest of the fighters who remained in Syria to volunteer:
“You are welcome, join us for our fun together against Armenia!”
The latter say, all smiles, to the camera. Some of them wear military uniforms and assault rifles.
The fourth video, shot by a fighter from the Hamza division, affiliated with the al-Farouq brigade (created in 2011), around October 3 and circulating on social networks since October 10, shows the bodies of soldiers Armenians lying on the ground.
“Thank God, here is their booty and their ammunition. God will make us triumph over every pig and every disbeliever,” he announces, advancing among the bodies.
Another unverified footage, shot by the same narrator, shows a bunch of #Syria fighters cheering to what looks like an #Azerbaijan helicopter gunship attack in #NagornoKarabakh (2/2) pic.twitter.com/qK5gWyjupu — Riam Dalati (@Dalatrm) October 4, 2020
Bellingcat collective journalist Alexander McKeever geolocated the scene: it takes place near Marjan, a village in southern Azerbaijan, near the Iranian border, under Azerbaijani control. Everything that “investigative website” Bellingcat claims should be taken with a massive grain of salt, but this time it appears factual.
another video of SNA mercenaries in Nagorno-Karabakh pic.twitter.com/YzCfbsYctG — Alexander McKeever (@AKMcKeever) October 10, 2020
Although Syrian fighters widely post videos of their involvement in the conflict on social media, the Azeri and Turkish defense ministries categorically deny their presence in Nagorno-Karabakh.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), at least 134 Syrian mercenaries were killed in Azerbaijan as of October 18, including 92 who were repatriated.
The same source claims that at least 2,050 mercenaries have been transported from Syria since the start of the armed conflict, in groups of 400 fighters at a time.
According to the British daily The Independent, which was able to speak to mercenaries who left for Azerbaijan, the first recruitments were scheduled for July, at the start of tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
As a result, the combatants would have been promised a sum of between 1,200 dollars (approximately 1,000 euros) and 1,500 dollars (approximately 1,250 €).
A substantial salary in a country where 83% of the population lives below the poverty line, according to a 2019 United Nations report.
Fanny Alarcon is an expert on Syrian irregular groups and a journalist for the journal Intelligence Online. She explains:
“It becomes almost natural for Turkey to retrain its fighters in armed conflict. They are not expensive, they are trained: it is easy labor. These fighters need a salary and know how to fight. Turkey officially intervened in 2017, 2018 and 2019 in Northeastern Syria. During each of these operations, she did not want to directly involve her army and resorted to these Syrian fighters, who in turn recycled themselves into henchmen against the Kurdish autonomous administration. In the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it is not as assumed support as in Libya or northern Syria. It is a progressive support and at first glance, the Azeri and Turkish authorities have no interest in using the Syrian mercenaries: it does not give them a good image, especially when they put themselves in scene.”
Of course, these aren’t militants, there’s no “ideology” according to reports. They are “moderate opposition” that behead people just because Turkey pays them, but they’re not jihadists. At least that is the usual rhetoric.
“Each of these groups has a position: they are not jihadists. Turkey does not employ such people. These are factions which were formed at the start of the conflict and which originated from northwestern Syria, especially Aleppo. They claim responsibility for the FSA which was, during the Syrian civil war, a moderate insurgency against the Syrian regime, backed by NATO. When, then, the ANS was structured by Turkey in 2017 to bring together the insurgents, the ideological dimension disappeared. Ultimately, the motivation of Syrian mercenaries is to get paid, to have a job and a salary. Some of them seem to doubt their commitment on the ground. For others, they are just mercenaries whose job is to fight,” Fanny Alarcon explained.
Video of a Syrian mercenary in Azerbaijan speaking about the heavy shelling carried out by Armenian forces. I reached his cousin. The fighter is Mustafa Qanti, 23-years-old. He was recruited to go to Libya by the Hamza Division, a Turkish-backed faction. pic.twitter.com/tHdzljm02X — Elizabeth Tsurkov (@Elizrael) October 3, 2020
Video of a Syrian mercenary in Azerbaijan speaking about the heavy shelling carried out by Armenian forces. I reached his cousin. The fighter is Mustafa Qanti, 23-years-old. He was recruited to go to Libya by the Hamza Division, a Turkish-backed faction. pic.twitter.com/tHdzljm02X — Elizabeth Tsurkov (@Elizrael) October 3, 2020
Other video clips, from Syria, show recruiting speeches led by sheikhs or faction leaders in charge of this mission in the towns of the northwest, particularly affected by war and extreme poverty.
This excerpt, verified by local media Afrin Post, takes place in Shaykh al-Hadid, a town in the Aleppo region, a few kilometers from the Turkish border.
Sheikhs and faction leaders recruit militants, but also the claim that there’s no ideology somehow holds water.
The speech took place in a tent set up near the town of Jindires for the funeral of a mercenary who died in Nagorno-Karabakh. “The umma is in peril today, our fight in Azerbaijan is the same as in the Levant. It is your [religious] duty to go into combat in Libya and Azerbaijan,” the Sheikh sermonized in his speech.
Fanny Alarcon continues:
“Recruitment is done through the Turkish intelligence service, which structures the ANS and designates faction leaders to bring them to Turkey and go to Armenia [as the Arabic-speaking agency Stepnews has shown]. This is played out through this state service, and not through private companies like the Russian group Wagner, which recruited mercenaries to fight in the Central African Republic or in Venezuela [as Mondafrique has shown, editor’s note]. The religious discourse has really been present among the Syrians since 2011. The rise of radicalism is thus at the center of the structuring of the Syrian insurgency. In 2020, we do not see a faction that does not use religious discourse, this is basic data, it is not really a lever. These groups, from mercenaries over the years, have become the most powerful (such as Ahrar Al-cham and Jabhat al-Nosra). They were very religious and rallied a lot of fighters. So the rest of the factions had to get down to their level and adopt the same rhetoric.”
Many of these individuals who are part of actual terrorist formations are still being absolved from any guilt, because they are “poor”, instead of attempting to rebuild their country, or fight on behalf of the authorities to liberate all areas of Syria have become tools of Turkey in spreading chaos elsewhere.
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southfront--2020-10-21--Military Situation In Syria On October 21, 2020 (Map Update)

Click to see the full-size image A brief overview of the recent developments in Syria : • SAA artillery shelled @ @ @ @ @ Tal Wasit and Ziyarah villages ; • Unidentified aircraft launched an air strike targeting a @ @ @ @ @ the city of Al-Malikiyah in the northeastern countryside Hasakah ; • An explosive device has @ @ @ @ @ of the SDF near the village of Dashisha ; • A child was killed and @ @ @ @ @ incident with a Turkish military vehicle in Afrin .
MORE ON THE TOPIC : • @ @ @ @ @ Two Children , Killing One , Near Syria ’ s Afrin

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A brief overview of the recent developments in Syria:
Syrian Arab Army (SAA) artillery shelled Turkish-backed forces positons near Mutaram;
SAA artillery shelled Turkish-backed forces positons in the Tal Wasit and Ziyarah villages;
Unidentified aircraft launched an air strike targeting a vehicle in the vicinity of the city of Al-Malikiyah in the northeastern countryside Hasakah;
Russian warplanes reportedly targeted areas near Farkiyah;
An explosive device has exploded in a military vehicle of the SDF near the village of Dashisha;
A child was killed and another one injured in road incident with a Turkish military vehicle in Afrin.
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Turkish Drone Diplomacy

Turkish drones have been all around the headlines in recent months .
They ’ ve been used in conflict zones such as Libya , against Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar ’ s Libyan National Army ( LNA ) , in Syria , as well as mostly recently by Azerbaijan against the Armenian forces in the war for Nagorno-Karabakh .
Israel is still the world ’ s premiere seller of UAVs ; however , Turkey is working hard to contest that position .
This is mostly done due to the fact that the drones appear easy to use , cheap to produce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t only relate to the Bayraktar TB2 , even though it is currently the most exported and used Turkish drone .
A number of self-developed , designed and manufactured in Turkey unmanned systems with export potential give the country hope for future cooperation with foreign customers .
Turkish unmanned systems are unique compared to other military platforms such as helicopters and tanks , as they do not need foreign export licenses and have proven their combat capability .
It must be said that the Turkish military has used unmanned systems over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the outlawed Kurdistan Workers ’ Party ( PKK ) .
Turkish Baykar Makina , a private Turkish drone manufacturer , was awarded a contract to sell a batch of 12 of its Bayraktar TB2 UAVs to Ukraine , and in 2017 the company sold a batch of six TB2s to Qatar .
In addition , Turkish Baykar Makina in 2019 launched production of a naval version of the drone .
The Bayraktar TB2 Turkish Attack UAV is a mid-altitude tactical unmanned aerial vehicle system that serves as a platform for reconnaissance missions .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ aircraft , two ground control stations , three ground data terminals , two remote video terminals and ground support equipment .
The drone has a maximum payload of over 55kg .
The standard payload configuration includes an electro-optical camera module , an infrared camera module , a laser designator and a laser rangefinder .
And Turkish companies are hard at work in making the drone entirely indigenous .
Tusas Engine Industries , a national engine manufacturer in Turkey , completed the development phase of a program to create the country ’ s first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tests of the PD170 engine were successful , the author notes .
It is known that the 2.1 liter PD170 turbodiesel has a capacity of 170 hp .
at an altitude of 20 thousand feet and 130 hp at an altitude of 30 thousand feet , and can also operate at a maximum altitude of 40 thousand feet .
In addition , armaments are also being developed for the UAVs .
Turkey ’ s leading defense contractor Rokestan is set to expand its mini smart ammunition ( MAM ) product family , used @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drones and other international buyers .
The ammunition with additional features will be used in different platforms , Roketsan Chairperson Murat İkinci said .
İkinci told Anadolu Agency ( AA ) that Turkey ’ s unmanned aerial vehicle ( UAV ) development projects have added leverage to the Turkish defense industry and that the Bayraktar TB2 drones , in particular , offered improved opportunities and abilities for the Turkish Armed Forces ( TSK ) .
Drawing attention to the fact that serious improvements have been made in their development with the feedback and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said today the MAM ammunition family is way ahead of its peers .
He said in the upcoming period , new UAVs like Bayraktar Akıncı , a cutting-edge unmanned combat aerial vehicle ( UCAV ) and Aksungur , a domestically produced medium-altitude , long-endurance UAV developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries ( TAI ) , will be used by the TSK .
Both have superior capabilities compared to the current models .
Turkish media outlets also play a significant role in spreading news of the successes of the Turkish UAVs in various battlefields .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tripoli from falling to a rebel army by waging a huge drone war on its behalf , Ahval News reported , citing Al Jazeera .
It strongly reminds of a promotional piece to advertise a product : According to other reports Turkey has even surpassed the UK , by using its own technology to get ahead of London .
Located on the outskirts of Brighton in the UK , EDO MBM Technology devised and supplied a crucial missile component called the Hornet missile rack during the development stages of the Bayraktar TB2 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ set forward by the US ’ export ban on the killer drones .
And it all began with Turkey using its drones against the Kurdish PKK in Iraq and Syria .
Then , it used them in Idlib .
With a list of satisfied customers such as Libya ’ s Government of National Accord , Azerbaijan , various militant groups in Idlib , there ’ s more lining up .
Ukraine purchased Bayraktar TB2 drones , after it turned out that the West ’ s promises for weapon supplies and more tangible support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shown interest in procuring more drones .
Azerbaijan is to buy more drones to use against Armenia , and there ’ s likely to be more lining up .
With its extensive coverage and field testing , with ample videos proving its success , it is no surprise that the Turkish drones are selling quick .
They are cheap , reduce personnel losses in combat situations , are easily supplied since there ’ s ample stock and ammunition for them .
Turkish developments in the field will continue , both with improving the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UAVs , as well as unmanned surface vehicles , and possibly land units later on in the future .
Its sales will also likely rise , since many countries don ’ t have access to drones from the US and by proxy from Israel , or can ’ t afford Chinese drones .
This and ample evidence that they are effective guarantee a potent stream of profit for future developments .
In addition , Turkey is not simply selling a UAV , it ’ s rather selling the chance to gain the upper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there ’ s quite a few of them around the world .
Turkey also appears to not be that picky in who it sells to , unlike the US and Israel , for example .
After all , Turkey provides drones , training on-site with specialists , it could potentially include some militants deployed from somewhere to sweeten the deal .
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Turkish drones have been all around the headlines in recent months.
They’ve been used in conflict zones such as Libya, against Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), in Syria, as well as mostly recently by Azerbaijan against the Armenian forces in the war for Nagorno-Karabakh.
Israel is still the world’s premiere seller of UAVs; however, Turkey is working hard to contest that position.
This is mostly done due to the fact that the drones appear easy to use, cheap to produce, and rather effective.
This doesn’t only relate to the Bayraktar TB2, even though it is currently the most exported and used Turkish drone.
A number of self-developed, designed and manufactured in Turkey unmanned systems with export potential give the country hope for future cooperation with foreign customers.
Turkish unmanned systems are unique compared to other military platforms such as helicopters and tanks, as they do not need foreign export licenses and have proven their combat capability.
It must be said that the Turkish military has used unmanned systems over the past few years in the fight against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Turkish Baykar Makina, a private Turkish drone manufacturer, was awarded a contract to sell a batch of 12 of its Bayraktar TB2 UAVs to Ukraine, and in 2017 the company sold a batch of six TB2s to Qatar.
In addition, Turkish Baykar Makina in 2019 launched production of a naval version of the drone.
The Bayraktar TB2 Turkish Attack UAV is a mid-altitude tactical unmanned aerial vehicle system that serves as a platform for reconnaissance missions. Each Bayraktar TB2 system consists of six aircraft, two ground control stations, three ground data terminals, two remote video terminals and ground support equipment. The drone has a maximum payload of over 55kg. The standard payload configuration includes an electro-optical camera module, an infrared camera module, a laser designator and a laser rangefinder.
And Turkish companies are hard at work in making the drone entirely indigenous.
Tusas Engine Industries, a national engine manufacturer in Turkey, completed the development phase of a program to create the country’s first unmanned aerial vehicle engine, and initial tests of the PD170 engine were successful, the author notes. It is known that the 2.1 liter PD170 turbodiesel has a capacity of 170 hp. at an altitude of 20 thousand feet and 130 hp at an altitude of 30 thousand feet, and can also operate at a maximum altitude of 40 thousand feet.
In addition, armaments are also being developed for the UAVs.
Turkey’s leading defense contractor Rokestan is set to expand its mini smart ammunition (MAM) product family, used by the country’s armed combat drones and other international buyers.
The ammunition with additional features will be used in different platforms, Roketsan Chairperson Murat İkinci said.
İkinci told Anadolu Agency (AA) that Turkey’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) development projects have added leverage to the Turkish defense industry and that the Bayraktar TB2 drones, in particular, offered improved opportunities and abilities for the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK).
“The drones were a game-changer in field operations,” he said, reiterating that the country has been actively using several types of UAVs.
Drawing attention to the fact that serious improvements have been made in their development with the feedback and information obtained from the field, İkinci said today the MAM ammunition family is way ahead of its peers.
“It entered our agenda as ammunition that changed the course of the war and provided strike advantage,” he said, adding that they have continued their work in the field.
He said in the upcoming period, new UAVs like Bayraktar Akıncı, a cutting-edge unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) and Aksungur, a domestically produced medium-altitude, long-endurance UAV developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), will be used by the TSK. Both have superior capabilities compared to the current models.
Turkish media outlets also play a significant role in spreading news of the successes of the Turkish UAVs in various battlefields.
Turkey has saved the Libyan government in Tripoli from falling to a rebel army by waging a huge drone war on its behalf, Ahval News reported, citing Al Jazeera.
“Before Turkey stepped up its military intervention in Libya in December 2019, Haftar’s LNA had been gaining the upper hand in its bid to capture Tripoli, which he launched in April 2019. The arrival of Chinese-made Wing Loong drones in 2016 had made a significant difference to the LNA’s military capabilities, and these drones were being used effectively in the battle for Tripoli.”
It strongly reminds of a promotional piece to advertise a product:
“As well as launching air strikes, UAVs can provide valuable intelligence – and northern Libya’s relatively flat featureless desert terrain means that ground units are easily spotted from the air. In the event that drones are shot down, the pilot back at base can launch another drone.”
According to other reports Turkey has even surpassed the UK, by using its own technology to get ahead of London.
Located on the outskirts of Brighton in the UK, EDO MBM Technology devised and supplied a crucial missile component called the Hornet missile rack during the development stages of the Bayraktar TB2. It enabled Turkey to overcome the obstacle set forward by the US’ export ban on the killer drones.
And it all began with Turkey using its drones against the Kurdish PKK in Iraq and Syria.
Then, it used them in Idlib.
Then came Libya’s turn.
And now it’s Nagorno-Karabakh’s turn.
With a list of satisfied customers such as Libya’s Government of National Accord, Azerbaijan, various militant groups in Idlib, there’s more lining up.
Ukraine purchased Bayraktar TB2 drones, after it turned out that the West’s promises for weapon supplies and more tangible support turned out rather misleading.
Qatar has shown interest in procuring more drones.
Azerbaijan is to buy more drones to use against Armenia, and there’s likely to be more lining up.
With its extensive coverage and field testing, with ample videos proving its success, it is no surprise that the Turkish drones are selling quick.
They are cheap, reduce personnel losses in combat situations, are easily supplied since there’s ample stock and ammunition for them.
Turkish developments in the field will continue, both with improving the Bayraktar TB2, coming up with new UAVs, as well as unmanned surface vehicles, and possibly land units later on in the future.
Its sales will also likely rise, since many countries don’t have access to drones from the US and by proxy from Israel, or can’t afford Chinese drones. This and ample evidence that they are effective guarantee a potent stream of profit for future developments.
In addition, Turkey is not simply selling a UAV, it’s rather selling the chance to gain the upper hand in a local conflict, and there’s quite a few of them around the world. Turkey also appears to not be that picky in who it sells to, unlike the US and Israel, for example. After all, Turkey provides drones, training on-site with specialists, it could potentially include some militants deployed from somewhere to sweeten the deal.
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southfront--2020-10-21--Russia Suggests Renewing New START With No Further Demands, How Desperate Is Trump For A ‘Win’?

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are reportedly near signing an extension of the New START ( Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms ) .
“ We are very , very close to a deal , ” an unnamed US official told The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday .
“ Now that the Russians have agreed to a warhead freeze , I do not see why we can not work out the remaining issues in the coming days.
” There is no official confirmation from the US side , while the Russian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no official response had arrived by October 20th .
“ We have received no official response from the United States to our Note dated October 16 which contains the proposal put forward by President Vladimir Putin to extend the New START Treaty for one year .
We have noticed only some comments made by U.S. officials on social media platforms .
Given contradictory reactions to the actual situation , we want to clarify.
” The clarification is this : “ Russia offers to extend the New START Treaty for one year and meanwhile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undertake a political commitment to “ freeze ” for the above-mentioned period the number of nuclear warheads that each side possesses .
This position of ours may be implemented only and exclusively on the premise that “ freezing ” of warheads will not be accompanied by any additional demands on the part of the United States .
Were this approach be acceptable for Washington , then the time gained by the extension of the New START Treaty could be used to conduct comprehensive bilateral negotiations on the future nuclear and missile arms control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stability.
” The only response the US has provided is this : While the Russian statement ceded ground to U.S. negotiators on warheads , it did not offer stepped-up verification protocols to ensure that it would abide by the freeze .
Trump ’ s top arms control negotiator , Marshall Billingslea , is expected to brief NATO allies on the developments by October 25th .
Earlier , Russian President Vladimir Putin called for an unconditional renewal of the deal , causing Trump ’ s National Security Advisor Robert O ’ Brien to urge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a costly arms race ensues.
” Among the remaining issues that U.S. and Russian negotiators would need to hash out before such a deal is secured are the definitions of a warhead and how each side would verify compliance with the warhead freeze .
Billingslea , the top negotiator , has called for a more rigorous inspection regime under a fresh New START agreement than in the original 2010 deal signed under the Obama administration .
However , it could be that the timing is key – Trump needs an urgent , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russia is aware of that , and this may be exploited .
MORE ON THE TOPIC : • US Claims ‘ Agreement In Principle ’ With Russia To Extend New START Treaty , Russia Disagrees • U.S. Says Russia Should Sign New START Extension , Or Treaty Terms Will Turn Unfavorable For It

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US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are reportedly near signing an extension of the New START (Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms).
“We are very, very close to a deal,” an unnamed US official told The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. “Now that the Russians have agreed to a warhead freeze, I do not see why we cannot work out the remaining issues in the coming days.”
There is no official confirmation from the US side, while the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that no official response had arrived by October 20th.
“We have received no official response from the United States to our Note dated October 16 which contains the proposal put forward by President Vladimir Putin to extend the New START Treaty for one year. We have noticed only some comments made by U.S. officials on social media platforms. Given contradictory reactions to the actual situation, we want to clarify.”
The clarification is this:
“Russia offers to extend the New START Treaty for one year and meanwhile is ready to jointly with the U.S. undertake a political commitment to “freeze” for the above-mentioned period the number of nuclear warheads that each side possesses. This position of ours may be implemented only and exclusively on the premise that “freezing” of warheads will not be accompanied by any additional demands on the part of the United States. Were this approach be acceptable for Washington, then the time gained by the extension of the New START Treaty could be used to conduct comprehensive bilateral negotiations on the future nuclear and missile arms control that must address all factors affecting strategic stability.”
The only response the US has provided is this:
“We appreciate the Russian Federation’s willingness to make progress on the issue of nuclear arms control,” State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement on October 20th. “The United States is prepared to meet immediately to finalize a verifiable agreement. We expect Russia to empower its diplomats to do the same.”
While the Russian statement ceded ground to U.S. negotiators on warheads, it did not offer stepped-up verification protocols to ensure that it would abide by the freeze.
“Russia wants an unverified warhead freeze. It would be very difficult to monitor through intelligence collection,” tweeted James Acton, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Both Russia and the United States would presumably … continue to produce new warheads, while dismantling old ones.”
Trump’s top arms control negotiator, Marshall Billingslea, is expected to brief NATO allies on the developments by October 25th.
The Russia's statement is pretty rigid: "Our proposal can only and exclusively be implemented on the understanding that the United States will not advance any additional conditions with regard to freezing the arsenals."https://t.co/Xg4AaHIS49 — Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) October 20, 2020
I suspect one issue is Trump's hatred of Barack Obama — he can't bear to extend New START without something that makes it his agreement, not Obama's. I would expect Trump's base to happily swallow a non-verifiable political commitment as some sort of major victory for Trump. — Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) October 20, 2020
Still, I hope they pull this off — even if it only kicks the can down the road a year. /END — Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) October 20, 2020
Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for an unconditional renewal of the deal, causing Trump’s National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien to urge Moscow to rethink its position “before a costly arms race ensues.”
Among the remaining issues that U.S. and Russian negotiators would need to hash out before such a deal is secured are the definitions of a warhead and how each side would verify compliance with the warhead freeze. Billingslea, the top negotiator, has called for a more rigorous inspection regime under a fresh New START agreement than in the original 2010 deal signed under the Obama administration.
However, it could be that the timing is key – Trump needs an urgent, and significant win before the presidential elections, Russia is aware of that, and this may be exploited.
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southfront--2020-10-21--Turkish Armored Vehicle Ran Over Two Children, Killing One, Near Syria’s Afrin

On October 20th , local sources in Syria ’ s Afrin reported that a Turkish armored vehicle ran over two children who were riding a motorbike on the Jendersse-Afrin Road , which led to the death of one of the children immediately and seriously wounding the other .
Reportedly , the Turkish Armed Forces didn ’ t stop after they had run the children over .
In response , the Turkish-backed militants in the area attempted to blow the convoy up .
The reporter Anas ALmaarawi said that during the next patrol , the Turkish military on the M4 highway @ @ @ @ @ @ @ side of the city of Arikh and blew up on a mine .
Earlier , on October 17th , a Turkish Armed Forces convoy was struck by militants from the village of Maaret-El-Uliya in Idlib .
It is presumably under control by pro-Turkish militant groups .
The convoy , when struck , was carrying out measures to withdraw from the territory of the observation post in the village of Murek , which is under control by the Syrian Arab Army ( SAA ) .
The October 17th attack was blamed on the Syrian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Human Rights .
SOHR sources said that a truck driver was killed on the international road near the city of Saraqeb , as regime forces opened fired on rented trucks used to transport equipment of Turkish post “ Murek ” , north of Hama .
Syrian trucks entered from the area of Al-Tarnaba and headed to Saraqeb to reach the international road Damascus-Aleppo “ M5 ” .
“ Reliable sources have just told SOHR that Turkish forces , stationed in Murek observation post in regime-controlled areas in the northern countryside of Hama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in preparation for leaving it .
It is worth noting that the observation post in Murek is the largest Turkish military post in northern Hama and the Turks have been stationed there for nearly two years and four months.
” It would appear that Turkey ’ s plan for the Idlib province don ’ t fit entirely with the agenda of the militants that fall under its wing .
MORE ON THE TOPIC :

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On October 20th, local sources in Syria’s Afrin reported that a Turkish armored vehicle ran over two children who were riding a motorbike on the Jendersse-Afrin Road, which led to the death of one of the children immediately and seriously wounding the other.
Reportedly, the Turkish Armed Forces didn’t stop after they had run the children over.
In response, the Turkish-backed militants in the area attempted to blow the convoy up.
“Turkish armored vehicles ran into two children on the Jindaris-Afrin road. They were riding a motorcycle, and the armored vehicles did not stop. They were driving towards the Hammam border crossing. One of the children was killed,” the initial reports claimed.
The reporter Anas ALmaarawi said that during the next patrol, the Turkish military on the M4 highway in Idlib found an IED on the side of the city of Arikh and blew up on a mine.
Earlier, on October 17th, a Turkish Armed Forces convoy was struck by militants from the village of Maaret-El-Uliya in Idlib.
It is presumably under control by pro-Turkish militant groups.
The convoy, when struck, was carrying out measures to withdraw from the territory of the observation post in the village of Murek, which is under control by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).
The October 17th attack was blamed on the Syrian Arab Army by the UK-based Syrian Observatory of Human Rights.
SOHR sources said that a truck driver was killed on the international road near the city of Saraqeb, as regime forces opened fired on rented trucks used to transport equipment of Turkish post “Murek”, north of Hama.
Syrian trucks entered from the area of Al-Tarnaba and headed to Saraqeb to reach the international road Damascus-Aleppo “M5”.
“Reliable sources have just told SOHR that Turkish forces, stationed in Murek observation post in regime-controlled areas in the northern countryside of Hama, started disassembling the observation post, in preparation for leaving it. It is worth noting that the observation post in Murek is the largest Turkish military post in northern Hama and the Turks have been stationed there for nearly two years and four months.”
It would appear that Turkey’s plan for the Idlib province don’t fit entirely with the agenda of the militants that fall under its wing.
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southfront--2020-10-21--Map Update: Azerbaijani Forces’ Advance In Nagorno-Karabakh Region September 27-October 21, 2020

Click to see the full-size image This map shows the advance of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces supported by Turkey in @ @ @ @ @ the period from September 27 to October 21 , 2020 .
MORE ON THE TOPIC @ @ @ @ @ Destroyed Armenian MLRS , Media Understands It As RS-24 Yars ICBM • Armenian Forces Use @ @ @ @ @ Tide Of War With Azerbaijan

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This map shows the advance of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces supported by Turkey in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region in the period from September 27 to October 21, 2020.
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southfront--2020-10-21--SouthFront Survival Is Not Possible Without Your Immediate Support

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southfront--2020-10-21--Rocket Fired From Gaza Into Israel, IDF Responds With Airstrikes

On October 20th , Israel Defense Forces ( IDF ) allegedly discovered an “ terror tunnel ” dug from Gaza into Israel .
Just two hours later , a rocket was fired towards Israeli territory from Gaza .
No group in Gaza claimed responsibility for firing the rocket , which set off warning sirens in the border area .
In response to that one rocket that was fired and subsequently intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system , IDF struck Hamas infrastructure in Gaza .
“ IDF fighter jets and attack helicopters attacked underground infrastructure of the Hamas terror group @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement .
“ The attack was in response to the firing of a rocket launched from the territory of the Gaza Strip to Israeli territory earlier this evening.
” The Hamas-linked website al-Resalah said the strikes targeted Khan Younis and Deir el-Balah in central Gaza .
There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage .
Video from a security camera shared on social media appeared to show an Iron Dome missile being launched to intercept the rocket .
According to the IDF , military engineers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an “ indication ” from the barrier system whose installation is being completed on the border .
“ The route [ of the tunnel ] was located as part of the ongoing efforts to find and neutralize tunnels and thanks to the technological and [ intelligence ] collection capabilities of the barrier , ” the IDF said in a statement .
The military said the tunnel did not penetrate Israel ’ s new underground barrier and did not pose a threat to communities in the area .
The Israeli army said it viewed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tunnel and that forces will act in the next few days to demolish it .
“ I don ’ t know what the response will be .
We will neutralize the tunnel and examine the developments later , ” said Israel Defense Forces Spokesman Brig .
Gen. Hidai Zilberman .
MORE ON THE TOPIC : • Israel Considers Bashar Al-Assad An Enemy “ Should Have Killed Him ” : Israel Intelligence Official

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On October 20th, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) allegedly discovered an “terror tunnel” dug from Gaza into Israel.
BREAKING: We just exposed another terror tunnel crossing dozens of meters into Israel from Gaza. This is a violation of Israeli sovereignty, an attempt to terrorize our civilians & an abuse of international humanitarian aid. We hold Hamas accountable and stand prepared. pic.twitter.com/npQanJ9l6D — Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) October 20, 2020
Just two hours later, a rocket was fired towards Israeli territory from Gaza. No group in Gaza claimed responsibility for firing the rocket, which set off warning sirens in the border area.
Just 2 hours after we exposed a terror tunnel dug from Gaza into Israel, terrorists in Gaza fired one rocket toward Israeli civilians. The Iron Dome intercepted the rocket. We will protect Israeli civilians
from threats above and below ground. — Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) October 20, 2020
In response to that one rocket that was fired and subsequently intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system, IDF struck Hamas infrastructure in Gaza.
In response to the rocket that was fired from Gaza into Israel earlier tonight, our aircraft struck underground Hamas infrastructure in Gaza. pic.twitter.com/UKMyQfQfKr — Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) October 20, 2020
“IDF fighter jets and attack helicopters attacked underground infrastructure of the Hamas terror group in the southern Gaza Strip,” the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement. “The attack was in response to the firing of a rocket launched from the territory of the Gaza Strip to Israeli territory earlier this evening.”
דיווח פלסטיני: תיעוד מתקיפת צה"ל ברצועת עזה בתגובה לשיגור הרקטה לעבר ישראל@galberger pic.twitter.com/V9ZXggyJYp — כאן חדשות (@kann_news) October 20, 2020
The Hamas-linked website al-Resalah said the strikes targeted Khan Younis and Deir el-Balah in central Gaza. There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage.
שיגור הרקטה לעבר שטח ישראל. מערכת כיפת ברזל יירטה בהצלחה את הרקטה. pic.twitter.com/iB3C4uEiR1 — almog boker (@bokeralmog) October 20, 2020
Video from a security camera shared on social media appeared to show an Iron Dome missile being launched to intercept the rocket.
According to the IDF, military engineers located the concrete-lined tunnel from Gaza after an “indication” from the barrier system whose installation is being completed on the border.
“The route [of the tunnel] was located as part of the ongoing efforts to find and neutralize tunnels and thanks to the technological and [intelligence] collection capabilities of the barrier,” the IDF said in a statement.
The military said the tunnel did not penetrate Israel’s new underground barrier and did not pose a threat to communities in the area.
The Israeli army said it viewed Hamas as being responsible for building the tunnel and that forces will act in the next few days to demolish it. “I don’t know what the response will be. We will neutralize the tunnel and examine the developments later,” said Israel Defense Forces Spokesman Brig. Gen. Hidai Zilberman.
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southfront--2020-10-21--Rudy Giuliani Turns Over Alleged Photos Of Underage Girls From Hunter’s Hard Drive To Delaware Polic

Rudy Giuliani Turns Over Alleged Photos Of Underage Girls From Hunter’s Hard Drive To Delaware Police

Things just took a very dark turn in the Hunter Biden laptop scandal .
While the alleged crack , cronyism , corruption was enough to spark the biggest media suppression in history , and no denials whatsoever from the Biden camp , the bombshell that Rudy Giuliani just dropped , if true , is egregious to say the least ( not just with regard Hunter Biden but the law enforcement authorities who have allegedly had this information since before Trump ’ s impeachment but done nothing about it ) .
In an interview this evening with Newsmax TV , former @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Donald Trump , Rudy Giuliani announces he has turned over Hunter Biden ’ s laptop hard-drive to Delaware State Police due to pictures of underage girls and inappropriate text messages .
In one of the texts , Hunter Biden allegedly says to his sister-in-law ( also his lover ) that he face-timed a 14-year-old girl while naked and doing crack – “ she told my therapist that I was sexually inappropriate.
” Giuliani adds , “ this would be with regard an unnamed 14 year old girl , ” adding that “ this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ girls.
” Watch the full interview below ( the above exchange begins around 5:20 ) : Furthermore , JustTheNews ’ John Solomon reports that former New York Police Department commissioner Bernard Kerik joined him when he delivered photographs and text messages to the New Castle County Police Department .
Law enforcement officials in Delaware told Just the News that Giuliani ’ s concerns have been forwarded to the state Department of Justice .
Perhaps the most damning statement from Giuliani , with regard the election , was the former mayor alleging that : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more Russian disinformation or ‘ Giuliani ’ lies , we remind readers that we previously reported that Hunter Biden ’ s alleged laptop contents included a curious piece of evidence – a photograph of an FBI subpoena which bears the signature of the agency ’ s top child porn investigator , special agent Joshua Wilson .
FBI agent Wilson ’ s identity was confirmed by both and , the latter of which compared his signature to a 2012 criminal complaint and concluded that it “ clearly matches the unreversed signature on the subpoena @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s unclear whether the FBI employs more than one agent named Joshua Wilson .
But the available evidence seems to show **the Joshua Wilson who signed the subpoena for Hunter Biden ’ s laptop , and the Joshua Wilson who investigates child pornography for the FBI , are the same person** .
This raises the possibility , not explored by the Post , that the FBI issued the subpoena for reasons unrelated to Hunter Biden ’ s role in Ukraine and Burisma .
So why is the FBI ’ s top child porn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ case ?
‘ s Chanel Rion says she ’ s seen the contents of the hard drive , which includes “ Drugs , underage obsessions , power deals , ” which make “ Anthony Weiner ’ s down under selfie addiction look normal.
“ All of which now makes some sense , given Giuliani ’ s alleged findings , and raises a stunning question : if there is/was incriminating child porn on Hunter ’ s computer , what has the FBI been doing about it ?

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Originally appeared at ZeroHedge
Things just took a very dark turn in the Hunter Biden laptop scandal.
While the alleged crack, cronyism, corruption was enough to spark the biggest media suppression in history, and no denials whatsoever from the Biden camp, the bombshell that Rudy Giuliani just dropped, if true, is egregious to say the least (not just with regard Hunter Biden but the law enforcement authorities who have allegedly had this information since before Trump’s impeachment but done nothing about it).
In an interview this evening with Newsmax TV, former NYC Mayor and current attorney to President Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani announces he has turned over Hunter Biden’s laptop hard-drive to Delaware State Police due to pictures of underage girls and inappropriate text messages.
In one of the texts, Hunter Biden allegedly says to his sister-in-law (also his lover) that he face-timed a 14-year-old girl while naked and doing crack – “she told my therapist that I was sexually inappropriate.”
Giuliani adds, “this would be with regard an unnamed 14 year old girl,” adding that “this is supported by numerous pictures of underage girls.”
Watch the full interview below (the above exchange begins around 5:20):
Furthermore, JustTheNews’ John Solomon reports that former New York Police Department commissioner Bernard Kerik joined him when he delivered photographs and text messages to the New Castle County Police Department.
“I told them other details about what appears to be an inappropriate sexual relationship,” he said in an interview. “They told me it would be investigated.”
Law enforcement officials in Delaware told Just the News that Giuliani’s concerns have been forwarded to the state Department of Justice.
“The FBI has had this for a long time,” Giuliani said. “No indication they did anything about this, so I went to the local police and said, ‘What are you going to do about this?'”
Perhaps the most damning statement from Giuliani, with regard the election, was the former mayor alleging that:
“I will tell you the evidence I gave them states it was reported to Joe Biden. What did he do about it?”
Before this is wholly dismissed as yet more Russian disinformation or ‘Giuliani’ lies, we remind readers that we previously reported that Hunter Biden’s alleged laptop contents included a curious piece of evidence – a photograph of an FBI subpoena which bears the signature of the agency’s top child porn investigator, special agent Joshua Wilson.
FBI agent Wilson’s identity was confirmed by both Western Journal and Business Insider, the latter of which compared his signature to a 2012 criminal complaint and concluded that it “clearly matches the unreversed signature on the subpoena published by the New York Post.”
As BI notes:
It’s unclear whether the FBI employs more than one agent named Joshua Wilson. But the available evidence seems to show **the Joshua Wilson who signed the subpoena for Hunter Biden’s laptop, and the Joshua Wilson who investigates child pornography for the FBI, are the same person**. This raises the possibility, not explored by the Post, that the FBI issued the subpoena for reasons unrelated to Hunter Biden’s role in Ukraine and Burisma.
So why is the FBI’s top child porn lawyer involved in the Hunter Biden laptop case? OANN‘s Chanel Rion says she’s seen the contents of the hard drive, which includes “Drugs, underage obsessions, power deals,” which make “Anthony Weiner’s down under selfie addiction look normal.“
Just saw for myself a behind the scenes look at the #HunterBiden hard drive: Drugs, underage obsessions, power deals… Druggie Hunter makes Anthony Weiner's down under selfie addiction look normal.#BidenCrimeFamily has a lot of apologizing to do. So does Big Tech. @OANN — Chanel Rion OAN (@ChanelRion) October 15, 2020
All of which now makes some sense, given Giuliani’s alleged findings, and raises a stunning question: if there is/was incriminating child porn on Hunter’s computer, what has the FBI been doing about it?
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southfront--2020-10-21--Azerbaijan Says It Destroyed Armenian MLRS, Media Understands It As RS-24 Yars ICBM

On the morning of October 21st , fighting along all positions in Nagorno-Karabakh is continuing between Azerbaijan and Armenia .
Notably , Azerbaijan made some interesting claims that it had destroyed weapons that Armenia apparently doesn ’ t even have , including Hurricanes and RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles .
“ Ay balam ( baby ) , they said a thousand times that you are being deceived .
Either they take Hadrut , or I don ’ t know what , but now they have reported to you the types of weapons of the Armenian army .
It has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no Hurricanes .
But this is nothing , it turns out that we had an intercontinental ballistic missile “ Yars ” , but we did not know about it , ” the representative of the Ministry of Defense Artsrun Hovhannisyan said .
It should be mentioned that it was likely a misunderstanding , however , because President Ilham Aliyev mentioned it in a speech , and YARS in Azerbaijani actually means Multiple-rocket launcher system ( MLRS ) .
Which is showing for the level of reporting , since quite a few media outlets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been destroyed .
According to Armenian media , clashes and artillery battles continued in some areas during the night .
In the morning Azerbaijan is shelling the city of Martakert and its surrounding villages .
One Azerbaijani aircraft was reportedly downed , but it ’ s unclear what it was .
On the previous day , official representative of the Ministry of Defense of Armenia Artsrun Hovhannisyan said that the situation was relatively calm throughout October 20th .
“ There were intense fighting today .
Especially in the south .
More or less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made in the morning , but our attacks are repelled , and after that there is silence .
I understand that they threw all their forces to the south .
In the south today they approached the next line , but our forces repulsed the attack and threw the enemy back , moving forward a little .
At the mouth of the Khakari River – ours are from the west , and they are from the east .
Yesterday and today we shot down 2-3 Bayraktar.
” “ In unconfirmed reports , 700-800 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an Armenian position in the north , but could not advance , retreated , leaving 200-300 corpses on the battlefield , ” Representative of the Armenian Defense Ministry Artsrun Hovhannisyan said on the scale of the Azerbaijani military offensive .
Artsakh ’ s air defense units destroyed another Turkish attack drone Bayraktar TB2 of the opponent , the Artsakh Ministry of Defense .
In the past 48 hours alone leading up to October 21 , 27 Syrian militant mercenaries have been killed in the conflict zone in Artsakh , SOHR reports .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the side of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces has reached 161 .
Armenian media accused Azerbaijan of using internationally prohibited weapons against the civilian population of Artsakh .
Close to Stepanakert , capital of Artsakh , there was found a cluster missile with more than 260 unexploded bombs fired by the Azerbaijani Air Forces .
There is no military facility nearby the area where the rocket was found .
People there are engaged in cattle breeding , gardening and beekeeping .
The sappers of the Rescue Forces Department of SES will further destroy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ independent reporters in Artsakh have filmed and covered the work of sappers these days .
A resolution recognizing the independence of the Republic of Artsakh was submitted to the US House of Representatives .
The author of the resolution is member of the US House of Representatives Grace Napolitano .
On the Azerbaijani side , during the day on October 20 and on the night of October 21 , the combat operations in the direction of Aghdere , Fizuli-Jabrayil , and Gubadli directions of the front continued with varying intensity .
The enemy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arms , mortars , and howitzers .
As a result of the operations carried out by the Azerbaijani Army , the defending units of the 18th motorized rifle division of the Armenian armed forces in the Jabrayil and Gubadli directions of the front were forced to withdraw , losing personnel and military vehicles .
Enemy positions were seized in the defense area of the 5th mountain rifle regiment , a large number of weapons and ammunition were taken as trophies .
The regiment ’ s chief of artillery , commander of artillery division @ @ @ @ @ @ @ together with the battalion ’ s military personnel were destroyed .
MORE ON THE TOPIC : • Iran Army , IRGC Announce Large-Scale Air Defense Drills After Another Israeli-Made Drone Downed After Entering Iran From Karabakh • Armenian Forces Use Their Last Chance To Turn Tide Of War With Azerbaijan

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On the morning of October 21st, fighting along all positions in Nagorno-Karabakh is continuing between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Notably, Azerbaijan made some interesting claims that it had destroyed weapons that Armenia apparently doesn’t even have, including Hurricanes and RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles.
“Ay balam (baby), they said a thousand times that you are being deceived. Either they take Hadrut, or I don’t know what, but now they have reported to you the types of weapons of the Armenian army. It has been said a thousand times that we have no Hurricanes. But this is nothing, it turns out that we had an intercontinental ballistic missile “Yars”, but we did not know about it,” the representative of the Ministry of Defense Artsrun Hovhannisyan said.
It should be mentioned that it was likely a misunderstanding, however, because President Ilham Aliyev mentioned it in a speech, and YARS in Azerbaijani actually means Multiple-rocket launcher system (MLRS).
Which is showing for the level of reporting, since quite a few media outlets reported as if several Yars complexes had been destroyed.
According to Armenian media, clashes and artillery battles continued in some areas during the night.
In the morning Azerbaijan is shelling the city of Martakert and its surrounding villages.
One Azerbaijani aircraft was reportedly downed, but it’s unclear what it was.
“The Air Defence units of the Artsakh Defence Army shot down an adversary airplane at around 8:30 in the Southern Section. The situation is relatively stable but tense,” Ministry of Defense spokesperson Shushan Stepanyan said.
On the previous day, official representative of the Ministry of Defense of Armenia Artsrun Hovhannisyan said that the situation was relatively calm throughout October 20th.
“There were intense fighting today. Especially in the south. More or less calm in the north. Attacks were made in the morning, but our attacks are repelled, and after that there is silence. I understand that they threw all their forces to the south. In the south today they approached the next line, but our forces repulsed the attack and threw the enemy back, moving forward a little. At the mouth of the Khakari River – ours are from the west, and they are from the east. Yesterday and today we shot down 2-3 Bayraktar.” “In unconfirmed reports, 700-800 fighters of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces attacked an Armenian position in the north, but could not advance, retreated, leaving 200-300 corpses on the battlefield,” Representative of the Armenian Defense Ministry Artsrun Hovhannisyan said on the scale of the Azerbaijani military offensive.
Artsakh’s air defense units destroyed another Turkish attack drone Bayraktar TB2 of the opponent, the Artsakh Ministry of Defense.
In the past 48 hours alone leading up to October 21, 27 Syrian militant mercenaries have been killed in the conflict zone in Artsakh, SOHR reports.
The total number of the killed mercenaries fighting on the side of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces has reached 161.
Armenian media accused Azerbaijan of using internationally prohibited weapons against the civilian population of Artsakh.
Close to Stepanakert, capital of Artsakh, there was found a cluster missile with more than 260 unexploded bombs fired by the Azerbaijani Air Forces. There is no military facility nearby the area where the rocket was found. People there are engaged in cattle breeding, gardening and beekeeping. The sappers of the Rescue Forces Department of SES will further destroy these malicious firearms.
Armenian and foreign independent reporters in Artsakh have filmed and covered the work of sappers these days.
A resolution recognizing the independence of the Republic of Artsakh was submitted to the US House of Representatives. The author of the resolution is member of the US House of Representatives Grace Napolitano.
On the Azerbaijani side, during the day on October 20 and on the night of October 21, the combat operations in the direction of Aghdere, Fizuli-Jabrayil, and Gubadli directions of the front continued with varying intensity. The enemy fired at our defensive positions using small arms, mortars, and howitzers.
As a result of the operations carried out by the Azerbaijani Army, the defending units of the 18th motorized rifle division of the Armenian armed forces in the Jabrayil and Gubadli directions of the front were forced to withdraw, losing personnel and military vehicles.
Enemy positions were seized in the defense area of the 5th mountain rifle regiment, a large number of weapons and ammunition were taken as trophies. The regiment’s chief of artillery, commander of artillery division, and commander of the 4th battalion together with the battalion’s military personnel were destroyed.
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southfront--2020-10-21--Iran Army, IRGC Announce Large-Scale Air Defense Drills After Another Israeli-Made Drone Downed Afte

Iran Army, IRGC Announce Large-Scale Air Defense Drills After Another Israeli-Made Drone Downed After Entering Iran From Karabakh

An Israeli-made IAI Harop combat drone of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces was shot down near the city of Parsabad in northern Iran on October 20 .
The Azerbaijani military uses IAI Harops to target positions and equipment of Armenian forces in the ongoing war in the Nagorno-Karabakh region .
The intensity of the clashes leads to a regular cross border incidents with Iran and Iranian forces do not seem to be ready to tolerate this .
Meanwhile , the Iranian Army and the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps ( IRGC ) are launching large-scale aerial exercises aimed at bolstering their preparedness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The large-scale drills , codenamed Modafe ’ an-e Aseman-e Velayat 99 ( Guardians of Velayat Sky 99 ) , will begin on October 21 .
Brigadier General Qader Rahimzadeh will command the exercise from from the Khatam al-Anbia Air Defense Base .
Units of the Iranian Army ’ s air defense units and Air Force along with the IRGC ’ s Aerospace Force will participate in the drills .
Just a few days earlier , the Iranian military deployed additionally artillery pieces near the border with Azerbaijan .
MORE ON THE TOPIC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chance To Turn Tide Of War With Azerbaijan

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An Israeli-made IAI Harop combat drone of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces was shot down near the city of Parsabad in northern Iran on October 20. The Azerbaijani military uses IAI Harops to target positions and equipment of Armenian forces in the ongoing war in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The intensity of the clashes leads to a regular cross border incidents with Iran and Iranian forces do not seem to be ready to tolerate this.
Meanwhile, the Iranian Army and the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) are launching large-scale aerial exercises aimed at bolstering their preparedness for defending the country’s airspace. The large-scale drills, codenamed Modafe’an-e Aseman-e Velayat 99 (Guardians of Velayat Sky 99), will begin on October 21. Brigadier General Qader Rahimzadeh will command the exercise from from the Khatam al-Anbia Air Defense Base.
Units of the Iranian Army’s air defense units and Air Force along with the IRGC’s Aerospace Force will participate in the drills. Just a few days earlier, the Iranian military deployed additionally artillery pieces near the border with Azerbaijan.
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southfront--2020-10-21--Trump Vs Biden: The Race Tightens, “Suddenly Looks Like 2016”

“ How will the stocks trade on various election outcomes ” remains the most frequent question virtually every bank has been fielding in recent weeks .
One of the best summaries of the various President/Senate permutations came from Bank of America which last week laid out “ The 4 Election Scenarios For Markets , And How To Trade Them.
” It will come as no surprise that with significantly oversampled polls ( a remnant of John Podesta ’ s strategy which was leaked 4 years ago ) , a Dem Sweep appears to be the consensus outlook , although quite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ either a Trump win or a Republican hold of the Senate , and even if the “ consensus ” plays out JPMorgan warns that the 35 % or so who expect a Trump win or a could still move stocks even if we get the “ consensus ” outcome .
Then again , and just like in 2016 , the question is “ which polls should one listen to ” : if one goes off the same popular pollsters who got 2016 so wrong , a Trump victory would be – as Deutsche @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week – the “ biggest error in our modern era of mass polling.
” Reid was going off the latest RCP poll average which showed Biden ’ s lead in various polls rise by over 10pp over the past week .
Putting that lead in context , and assuming Trump ultimately prevails , the largest error was in 1948 when President Truman won by 5 % in spite of being behind by 4.4 % in the final polls .
As such , if Trump wins , the shock would be even bigger than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Of course , one doesn ’ t have to listen to the mainstream polls – which again got 2016 completely wrong – and if instead one picks a non-mainstream poll such as that from Trafalgar Group , which was one of the handful of polls to correctly predict the outcome of the Trump-Hillary race , then Trump will likely win as we reported last week .
But even if one sticks to the mainstream polling , things are starting to move in Trump ’ s favor .
As JPMorgan writes in its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first time in six weeks , Biden ’ s national average polling lead declined ( -1.7 points ) , and even though Biden continues to lead polling averages in many of the swing states and saw slight gains in AZ/MI/NC/WI he slipped slipping in FL/PA , with Florida now a dead heat ( although as JPM clarifies , if the election were held today , polling averages suggest Biden would win the Presidency and Democrats would gain Senate with wins in AZ , IA , ME & NC . )
Here , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warning issued by another JPMorgan analyst , Marko Kolanovic , who last week had a warning for those expecting a blowout Biden victory : specifically , he found that in the past 4 years , the number of newly registered republicans in key battleground states is greater than new democrats in critical states such as PA , FL , NC and NM .
If Kolanovic ’ s assessment is accurate , the change in voter registration data shown above would immediately invalidate all polls such as this one from Real Clear Politics showing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In fact , while he does not say it , the implication from the Kolanovic analysis is that Trump may well end up winning the critical trio of Pennsylvania ( 20 Electoral votes ) , Florida ( 29 votes ) and North Carolina ( 15 votes ) .
That said , even the RCP average show that Trump ’ s approval in battleground states is now approaching the highest it has been since the start of August .
Then , in yet another report from JPMorgan published today , the bank ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is perhaps true that during the first two weeks of October risk markets were supported by a widening of US presidential odds , which by itself implied a lower probability of a close or contested US election result , over the past week or so these odds have started narrowing again.
” But where things get really interesting is if one looks at the latest just released Investor ’ s Business Daily poll – which alongside Trafalgar also correctly predicted the outcome of the 2016 election – we learn that the race @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gotten much tighter ” as IBD/TIPP ’ s latest 2020 presidential poll update “ shows that Republicans are rallying around Trump , Biden is leaking Democratic support , and the gap among independents has narrowed ” , prompting IBD to conclude that the race “ suddenly looks like 2016.
” As a reminder , back in 2016 , IBD/TIPP ’ s final poll numbers put Trump up by 1.6 points in a four-way race , in line with the final “ shocking ” outcome .
Specifically , the latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican incumbent by 2.3 points , 48.1 % -45.8 % , in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters , and within the margin of error .
Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 3 % , and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.9 % .
Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched on Monday , Oct. 12 , Biden ’ s support has slipped 3.8 points , from 51.9 % to a new low-water mark of 48.1 % .
Trump poll numbers have gone the other way , rising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 45.8 % .
Biden ’ s lead peaked at 8.6 points in the Oct. 13 presidential poll ( The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,197 registered and 1,046 likely voters , from Oct. 15 through Oct. 19 .
The weighted party split of likely voters includes 385 Democrats , 339 Republicans and 308 independents ) .
According to the poll , Biden ’ s narrower support reflects Trump ’ s gain , more third-party support and more voters who are undecided or decline to say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that In a head-to-head Trump vs. Biden poll , the Democratic nominee leads by 2.8 points , 49 % -46.2 % , with Biden ’ s support slipping 3.7 points since Oct. 12 in the one-on-one matchup , while Trump ’ s support is up 3.9 points .
Joe Biden ’ s lead among likely independent voters narrowed to a 45 % -41 % margin in IBD/TIPP ’ s latest 2020 presidential poll update .
Biden ’ s lead had ranged from 6 points into the double digits .
Meanwhile , Donald Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corralling Republicans than Biden is having in nailing down Democratic votes .
Biden leads 90 % -7 % among Democrats .
Trump leads 94 % -4 % among Republicans .
Still , the latest Trump vs. Biden poll continues to highlight what could be a big problem for the president : wayward 2016 Trump voters .
Among people who voted for Trump in 2016 , 7 % say they now support Biden while 89 % say they ’ ll back him again .
Biden does better among Hillary Clinton voters : Just 3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 95 % back the former vice president .
In addition to faring better among 2016 Trump and Clinton voters , Biden gets more support than Trump among 2016 third-party voters ( 39 % -30 % ) and nonvoters ( 57 % -31 % ) .
In 2016 , almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump .
The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump ’ s 2016 surprise showing .
TIPP , IBD ’ s polling partner , succeeded in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans for their candidate .
The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has some similarities with the Trump vs. Clinton race .
Republicans again seem more excited about their candidate .
However , Biden ’ s 4-point lead among independents in the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll is one important contrast from 2016 .
Trump carried independents 43 % -42 % in 2016 , according to a postelection Pew Research survey of verified voters .
Seniors and suburban voters helped lift Trump to victory in 2016 .
Yet the latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , though his lead among seniors has slipped .
According to IBD , unless Trump reverses his weakness among those groups , he ’ ll need a somewhat different formula for winning in 2020 .
Yet events could still reshape the race .
The Oct. 22 debate , a coronavirus resurgence as well as progress toward a medical breakthrough , the Supreme Court nomination fight and the fate of fiscal stimulus negotiations could all change minds during the last two weeks of the Trump vs. Biden race .
Of course , the unprecedented @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the potential for disqualified ballots , is a wild card .
Trump ’ s Electoral College victory in 2016 came despite losing the popular vote by 2.1 % — a hair smaller than his current 2.3-point deficit in the new IBD/TIPP presidential poll .
However , no candidate has won the presidency with a bigger popular vote deficit since 1874 , when Rutherford B. Hayes lost by 3 % .
The IBD/TIPP poll is even more of an outlier than in 2016 .
The RealClearPolitics average of 2020 presidential polls shows that Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points before the first debate and Trump ’ s coronavirus case to 8.9 points currently .
Senior citizens are another key group Trump carried in 2016 that have swung toward Biden , but the gap has narrowed .
Seniors back the former vice president , 48 % -46 % , in IBD/TIPP ’ s latest Trump vs. Biden poll , but his lead had been in double digits .
Trump won among senior citizens in 2016 , 53 % -44 % , Pew says .
Meanwhile , Biden is leading Trump among voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in the IBD/TIPP presidential poll update .
Trump leads 56 % -40 % among voters 45-64 .
President Trump is trying to shore up support among seniors , who are far more susceptible to the coronavirus and who have been critical of his handling of the pandemic .
After his release from the hospital , Trump pledged that he would provide free access to the Regeneron Pharmaceuticals ( REGN ) antibody drug that he credits with restoring him to full health .
The Trump administration also is getting ready to send out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of millions of seniors .
Senior citizens are another key group Trump carried in 2016 that have swung toward Biden , but the gap has narrowed .
Seniors back the former vice president , 48 % -46 % , in IBD/TIPP ’ s latest Trump vs. Biden poll , but his lead had been in double digits .
Trump won among senior citizens in 2016 , 53 % -44 % , Pew says .
Meanwhile , Biden is leading Trump among voters age 18-44 , 56 % -35 % , in the IBD/TIPP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % -40 % among voters 45-64 .
President Trump is trying to shore up support among seniors , who are far more susceptible to the coronavirus and who have been critical of his handling of the pandemic .
After his release from the hospital , Trump pledged that he would provide free access to the Regeneron Pharmaceuticals ( REGN ) antibody drug that he credits with restoring him to full health .
The Trump administration also is getting ready to send out drug cards worth $ 200 to tens of millions of seniors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump winning among men , 51 % -42 % , a bit more narrowly than his 11-point advantage in 2016 .
Women favor the Democrat by 54 % -41 % in the latest Trump vs. Biden poll update , a bit less than Trump ’ s 15-point deficit among women in 2016 .
White voters favor Trump by just under 13 points , but they backed him by a 15-point margin in 2016 , the IBD/TIPP 2020 presidential poll update finds .
Black voters back Biden , 88 % -9 % , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That ’ s slightly narrower than Clinton ’ s 85-point advantage in 2016 .
Meanwhile , Trump trails Biden among Hispanics , 29 % -65 % in the latest IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll .
In 2016 , Trump lost among Hispanic voters , 28 % -66 % .

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Originally appeared at ZeroHedge
“How will the stocks trade on various election outcomes” remains the most frequent question virtually every bank has been fielding in recent weeks. One of the best summaries of the various President/Senate permutations came from Bank of America which last week laid out “The 4 Election Scenarios For Markets, And How To Trade Them.”
It will come as no surprise that with significantly oversampled polls (a remnant of John Podesta’s strategy which was leaked 4 years ago), a Dem Sweep appears to be the consensus outlook, although quite a few in the market still expect either a Trump win or a Republican hold of the Senate, and even if the “consensus” plays out JPMorgan warns that the 35% or so who expect a Trump win or a could still move stocks even if we get the “consensus” outcome.
Then again, and just like in 2016, the question is “which polls should one listen to”: if one goes off the same popular pollsters who got 2016 so terribly wrong, a Trump victory would be – as Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid showed last week – the “biggest error in our modern era of mass polling.” Reid was going off the latest RCP poll average which showed Biden’s lead in various polls rise by over 10pp over the past week. Putting that lead in context, and assuming Trump ultimately prevails, the largest error was in 1948 when President Truman won by 5% in spite of being behind by 4.4% in the final polls. As such, if Trump wins, the shock would be even bigger than the historic 9.4 point upset in 1948.
Of course, one doesn’t have to listen to the mainstream polls – which again got 2016 completely wrong – and if instead one picks a non-mainstream poll such as that from Trafalgar Group, which was one of the handful of polls to correctly predict the outcome of the Trump-Hillary race, then Trump will likely win as we reported last week.
But even if one sticks to the mainstream polling, things are starting to move in Trump’s favor.
As JPMorgan writes in its Weekly Polling and Positioning report, for the first time in six weeks, Biden’s national average polling lead declined (-1.7 points), and even though Biden continues to lead polling averages in many of the swing states and saw slight gains in AZ/MI/NC/WI he slipped slipping in FL/PA, with Florida now a dead heat (although as JPM clarifies, if the election were held today, polling averages suggest Biden would win the Presidency and Democrats would gain Senate with wins in AZ, IA, ME & NC.)
Here, however, we should point out a warning issued by another JPMorgan analyst, Marko Kolanovic, who last week had a warning for those expecting a blowout Biden victory: specifically, he found that in the past 4 years, the number of newly registered republicans in key battleground states is greater than new democrats in critical states such as PA, FL, NC and NM.
If Kolanovic’s assessment is accurate, the change in voter registration data shown above would immediately invalidate all polls such as this one from Real Clear Politics showing Biden sweeping across the Battleground states. In fact, while he does not say it, the implication from the Kolanovic analysis is that Trump may well end up winning the critical trio of Pennsylvania (20 Electoral votes), Florida (29 votes) and North Carolina (15 votes). That said, even the RCP average show that Trump’s approval in battleground states is now approaching the highest it has been since the start of August.
Then, in yet another report from JPMorgan published today, the bank’s quant Nick Panigirtzoglou writes that “while it is perhaps true that during the first two weeks of October risk markets were supported by a widening of US presidential odds, which by itself implied a lower probability of a close or contested US election result, over the past week or so these odds have started narrowing again.”
But where things get really interesting is if one looks at the latest just released Investor’s Business Daily poll – which alongside Trafalgar also correctly predicted the outcome of the 2016 election – we learn that the race between Trump and Biden has “suddenly gotten much tighter” as IBD/TIPP’s latest 2020 presidential poll update “shows that Republicans are rallying around Trump, Biden is leaking Democratic support, and the gap among independents has narrowed”, prompting IBD to conclude that the race “suddenly looks like 2016.” As a reminder, back in 2016, IBD/TIPP’s final poll numbers put Trump up by 1.6 points in a four-way race, in line with the final “shocking” outcome.
Specifically, the latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll showed the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 2.3 points, 48.1%-45.8%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters, and within the margin of error . Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 3%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.9%.
Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched on Monday, Oct. 12, Biden’s support has slipped 3.8 points, from 51.9% to a new low-water mark of 48.1%. Trump poll numbers have gone the other way, rising 2.4 points to his new high-water mark of 45.8%. Biden’s lead peaked at 8.6 points in the Oct. 13 presidential poll (The daily update of the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll reflects a survey of 1,197 registered and 1,046 likely voters, from Oct. 15 through Oct. 19. The weighted party split of likely voters includes 385 Democrats, 339 Republicans and 308 independents).
According to the poll, Biden’s narrower support reflects Trump’s gain, more third-party support and more voters who are undecided or decline to say whom they support.
IBD also found that In a head-to-head Trump vs. Biden poll, the Democratic nominee leads by 2.8 points, 49%-46.2%, with Biden’s support slipping 3.7 points since Oct. 12 in the one-on-one matchup, while Trump’s support is up 3.9 points.
2020 Presidential Poll: Party Breakdown
Joe Biden’s lead among likely independent voters narrowed to a 45%-41% margin in IBD/TIPP’s latest 2020 presidential poll update. Biden’s lead had ranged from 6 points into the double digits. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is now having a much easier time corralling Republicans than Biden is having in nailing down Democratic votes. Biden leads 90%-7% among Democrats. Trump leads 94%-4% among Republicans.
Still, the latest Trump vs. Biden poll continues to highlight what could be a big problem for the president: wayward 2016 Trump voters. Among people who voted for Trump in 2016, 7% say they now support Biden while 89% say they’ll back him again. Biden does better among Hillary Clinton voters: Just 3% say they support Trump, while 95% back the former vice president. In addition to faring better among 2016 Trump and Clinton voters, Biden gets more support than Trump among 2016 third-party voters (39%-30%) and nonvoters (57%-31%).
Shades of 2016?
In 2016, almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump. The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump’s 2016 surprise showing. TIPP, IBD’s polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.
The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has some similarities with the Trump vs. Clinton race. Republicans again seem more excited about their candidate. However, Biden’s 4-point lead among independents in the IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll is one important contrast from 2016. Trump carried independents 43%-42% in 2016, according to a postelection Pew Research survey of verified voters.
Seniors and suburban voters helped lift Trump to victory in 2016. Yet the latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll shows the Democrat winning both groups, though his lead among seniors has slipped.
According to IBD, unless Trump reverses his weakness among those groups, he’ll need a somewhat different formula for winning in 2020. Yet events could still reshape the race. The Oct. 22 debate, a coronavirus resurgence as well as progress toward a medical breakthrough, the Supreme Court nomination fight and the fate of fiscal stimulus negotiations could all change minds during the last two weeks of the Trump vs. Biden race. Of course, the unprecedented level of mail-in voting, which brings the potential for disqualified ballots, is a wild card.
Trump’s Electoral College victory in 2016 came despite losing the popular vote by 2.1% — a hair smaller than his current 2.3-point deficit in the new IBD/TIPP presidential poll. However, no candidate has won the presidency with a bigger popular vote deficit since 1874, when Rutherford B. Hayes lost by 3%.
The IBD/TIPP poll is even more of an outlier than in 2016. The RealClearPolitics average of 2020 presidential polls shows that Biden’s lead has grown from 6.6 points before the first debate and Trump’s coronavirus case to 8.9 points currently.
Seniors Are Key Swing Group In 2020 Presidential Poll
Senior citizens are another key group Trump carried in 2016 that have swung toward Biden, but the gap has narrowed. Seniors back the former vice president, 48%-46%, in IBD/TIPP’s latest Trump vs. Biden poll, but his lead had been in double digits. Trump won among senior citizens in 2016, 53%-44%, Pew says.
Meanwhile, Biden is leading Trump among voters age 18-44, 56%-35%, in the IBD/TIPP presidential poll update. Trump leads 56%-40% among voters 45-64.
President Trump is trying to shore up support among seniors, who are far more susceptible to the coronavirus and who have been critical of his handling of the pandemic. After his release from the hospital, Trump pledged that he would provide free access to the Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) antibody drug that he credits with restoring him to full health. The Trump administration also is getting ready to send out drug cards worth $200 to tens of millions of seniors.
Seniors Are Key Swing Group In 2020 Presidential Poll
Senior citizens are another key group Trump carried in 2016 that have swung toward Biden, but the gap has narrowed. Seniors back the former vice president, 48%-46%, in IBD/TIPP’s latest Trump vs. Biden poll, but his lead had been in double digits. Trump won among senior citizens in 2016, 53%-44%, Pew says.
Meanwhile, Biden is leading Trump among voters age 18-44, 56%-35%, in the IBD/TIPP presidential poll update. Trump leads 56%-40% among voters 45-64.
President Trump is trying to shore up support among seniors, who are far more susceptible to the coronavirus and who have been critical of his handling of the pandemic. After his release from the hospital, Trump pledged that he would provide free access to the Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) antibody drug that he credits with restoring him to full health. The Trump administration also is getting ready to send out drug cards worth $200 to tens of millions of seniors.
More 2020 Election Poll Demographics
The IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll shows Trump winning among men, 51%-42%, a bit more narrowly than his 11-point advantage in 2016. Women favor the Democrat by 54%-41% in the latest Trump vs. Biden poll update, a bit less than Trump’s 15-point deficit among women in 2016. White voters favor Trump by just under 13 points, but they backed him by a 15-point margin in 2016, the IBD/TIPP 2020 presidential poll update finds. Black voters back Biden, 88%-9%, in today’s presidential poll update. That’s slightly narrower than Clinton’s 85-point advantage in 2016. Meanwhile, Trump trails Biden among Hispanics, 29%-65% in the latest IBD/TIPP 2020 election poll. In 2016, Trump lost among Hispanic voters, 28%-66%.
Finally, there’s this…
BREAKING: “Democrats are poring over early vote totals, circulating anxiety-ridden campaign memos & bracing for a long two weeks," POLITICO is reporting, as Republicans take lead among early & mail-in voting in Michigan & overwhelmingly in TX, as Dem youth vote crashes in PA & WI — Paul Sperry (@paulsperry_) October 20, 2020
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