southfront--2020-07-15--The Saker: “There Is a Dark and Dangerous Forest Behind These Burning Trees…”

Written by The Saker ; Originally appeared at The Unz Review Roughly half-way through the year 2020 it is becoming pretty obvious that there are a number of major developments which almost got our total attention , and for good reason , as these are tectonic shifts which truly qualify as “ catastrophe ” ( under “ a violent and sudden change in a feature of the earth “ ) .
These are : • The initiation of the global collapse of the AngloZionist Empire .
• The immense economic bubble whose ever-growing size is the best predictor of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inevitably result in .
• The implosion of the US society due to a combination of several and profound systemic crises ( economic collapse , racial tensions , mass poverty , alienation of the masses , absence of social protections , etc. )
.
• The COVID-19 ( aka “ it ’ s just like the seasonal flu !
!
“ ) pandemic which only exacerbates all the other major factors listed above .
• Last , but not least , it is hard to imagine what the next US Presidential election will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certain : by November we will already have a perfect storm – the election will only act like a battery which will feed even more energy into this already perfect storm .
To be sure , these are truly momentous , historical , developments whose importance can not be over-stated .
They are , however , not the only very serious developments .
There are , in fact , several areas of serious political tensions which could also result in a major explosion , albeit a regional one “ only ” !
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the most visible one : Erdogan is up to no good .
Again .
What a big surprise , right ?
Every time I hear somebody writing something about Erdogan the dreaming of becoming the sultan of a new Ottoman Empire , I tend to roll my eyes as this is a cliche .
Yet , there is no denial that this cliche is true – the neo-Ottoman ideology is definitely alive and well in Turkey and Erdogan clearly wants to “ ride that horse ” .
So let ’ s list @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been up to : • Syria : The Turks have clearly been dragging their feet in northern Syria where , at least according to the deal Erdogan made with Putin , the “ bad terrorists ” should have left a long time ago and the key highway should have been under the joint protection of the Russian and Turkish forces .
Well , Turkey did some of this , but not all , and the “ bad terrorists ” are still very much present in northern Syria .
In fact , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Forces base in Khmeimim ( they failed , but that is still something which the Turks have to answer for since the attack came from a zone they control ) .
Protecting terrorists in exchange for promises of immunity from their attacks has been tried many times in the past and it has never worked – sooner or later the terrorist groups always slip out of the control of their masters and even turn against them .
This is now happening to Turkey .
• Libya : The Turks are also deeply involved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact , “ deeply involved ” does not give enough credit to the Turkish military which used Turkish-made drones with devastating effectiveness against the forces of Field Marshal Khalifa Belqasim Haftar , the commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army ( which is backed by both Russia and Egypt ) .
Only the prompt ( and rather mysterious ) deployment of Russian air defenses and a number of unidentified MiG-29s succeeded in eventually bringing down enough Turkish drones to force them to take a pause .
The Egyptians have made it clear that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Government of National Accord ” to take Sirte or any land East of Sirte .
The Libyan Parliament ( of East Libya ) has now given Egypt the official authorization to directly intervene in Libya .
This makes some kind of Egyptian intervention an almost certain thing .
• Hagia Sophia : And just to make sure there are enough sources of tension , the Turks have now declared that the Saint Sophia Cathedral in Istanbul will no longer be a museum open to all , but a mosque .
Now the CIA-puppet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ All-Holiness the Archbishop of Constantinople , New Rome , and Ecumenical Patriarch ” Bartholomew should be the most vocal opponent to this move , but all he can do is mumble some irrelevancies ( he wanted to go down as the Patriarch who patronized the Ukrainian schism and , instead , he will go down in history as the Patriarch who did nothing to prevent the Ottomans from seizing one of the holiest sites of the Orthodox world .
Truth be told , he probably could not have prevented that ( Erdogan ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elections in Turkey ) – but he sure could have tried a little better .
Ditto for the head of the Moscow Patriarchate ( and , for that matter , the Russian government ) who expressed stuff like concern , or dismay , of some form of condemnation , but who really did nothing to make Erdogan pay for his move .
Add to this all the “ traditional ” sources of instability around Turkey , including the still unsolved ( and unsolvable ! )
Kurdish issue , the tensions between Turkey and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for anti-Russian factions in the various former Soviet Republics and the constant confrontation with Greece ) .
Turkey remains one of the most dangerous states on the planet , even if most people remain unaware of this .
True , in the recent years Turkey lost a lot of its power , but it still has plenty of formidable assets ( including a very strong domestic weapon systems manufacturing capability ) which it can use for a vast spectrum of nefarious political and military interventions .
Egypt is another country which regularly makes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public ’ s radar .
Yet , right now , Egypt is faced not with one , but with twopossible wars !
• Libya : as I mentioned above , should it come to an open clash between Turkey and Egypt in Libya , there could be a rapid horizontal escalation in which initial military clashes in Libya could turn into clashes over the Eastern Mediterranean and even possible strikes on key military objectives in Turkey and Egypt .
The only good news here is that there are a lot of major actors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Eastern Mediterranean and/or the Middle-East .
After all , if it came to a true military confrontation between Turkey and Egypt , then you can be pretty sure that NATO , CENTCOM , Greece , Israel and Russia would all have major concerns .
Besides , it is hard to imagine what kind of military “ victory ” either Turkey or Egypt could hope for .
Right now the situation is very tense , but we can hope that all the parties will realize that a negotiated solution , even a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ full-scale war .
• Ethiopia : Egypt has a potentially much bigger problem than Libya to deal with : the construction by Ethiopia of the “ ( GERD ) ” on the Blue Nile river .
While nobody really knows what the eventual impact of this dam will be on Sudan and Egypt , is is pretty clear that a civilization built along the Nile river will face a major threat to its way of life if the way the Nile river flows is disturbed in a major way ( which this dam @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two possible conflicts I mentioned above , it is the second one which has me most worried .
At the end of the day , neither Turkey nor Egypt will get to decide what happens in Libya which is mostly a kind of multi-player “ chessboard ” where “ big guys ” ( US , France , Russia ) will eventually decide the outcome .
In the case of the dam in Ethiopia , the local actors will probably have a decisive say , especially since both sides consider that this is an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you look at a map of the region , you will see that the distance between the Egyptian border and the location of the dam on the border between Ethiopia and Sudan is a long one ( about 1 ’ 200km or 745 miles ) .
Should it come to a military confrontation between the two countries , this distance will pretty much decide the shape of the warfare we shall see : mainly air and missile strikes .
The main problem here ( for both sides ) is that neither side has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which would allow it to effectively strike the other country .
This , however , could change very rapidly , especially if Russia does sell 24 of its advanced Su-35 multi-role air superiority fighters to Egypt , and even more so if Russia throws in a few capable air-to-ground strike missiles into the package ( the delivery of the first Sukhois ) .
Then there is this “ minor detail ” of Sudan being stuck between the two combatants : Khartoum simply can not look away and pretend like all is well if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fight each other over Sudanese airspace .
In theory Egypt could also try to mount some attack from the Red Sea , but right now the Egyptian Navy does not pack the kind of punch which would allow it to effectively strike Ethiopia ( especially with Eritrea in between the Red Sea and Ethiopia ) .
But that could also change , especially since Egypt agreed to purchase the two ( ex-Mistral ) class amphibious assault ships and helicopter carriers which , while not ideal , would definitely boost the Egyptian ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Egyptians succeed in deploying AWACS and strike aircraft ( rotary or even light fixed wing ) on these ships .
In practice , however , I think that the Egyptians could engage these ships much more effectively in Libya than they would in the Red Sea ( especially since these ships are poorly defended against missile strikes ) .
Finally , not only is the GERD defended by decent air defense systems ( along with a few decent , if aging , air force aircraft ) , a dam is a pretty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big , strong , and has a large volume which , by itself , also contributes to the “ hardness ” against attacks .
So there are reasons to hope that a conflict can be avoided , but it will be very hard to get the two sides to agree to compromises on issues which both sides see as vital to their national security .
Yes , the Ukraine .
Again .
This insanity which began with the Euromaidan has not stopped , far from it .
In fact , ever since the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ something of a madhouse which would be outright hilariously comical if it wasn ’ t also so tragic and even horrible for millions of Ukrainians .
I will spare you all the details , but we can sum up the main development of the past months as “ Zelenskii has completely lost control of the country ” .
But that would not even begin to cover the reality of this situation .
For one thing , the war of words between Trump and Biden over the Ukraine-gate has now “ infected ” the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now busy with what is known locally as “ black PR ” : trying to dig up as much dirt against your opponent as possible .
Zelenskii is so weak that , amazingly , the previously almost totally discredited Poroshenko has now made a strong comeback and thereby acquired the support of a lot of influential nationalists .
The latest incredible ( but true ! )
“ informational bomb ” was set off by a member of the Ukrainian Rada , Andrei Derkach , who released a recording of Joe Biden and Poroshenko @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a terrorist attack in Crimea ( see here for details about this amazing story ) .
This makes both Biden and Poroshenko “ sponsors of terrorism ” ( hardly a surprise , but still ) .
Other “ juicy ” news stories about the Nazi-occupied Banderastan include Zelenskii possibly fathering a kid with an aid and the brutal attacks on the members of a small ( but growing ) “ Sharii ” opposition party which the authorities not only ignored , but most likely ordered in the first place .
It is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ toxic intricacies of internal Ukronazi politics , so I will only look at one of the major dangers resulting from this dynamic : there is talk of war with Russia again .
Okay , we have all heard the very same rumors for years now , and yet no real and sustained Ukrainian attack on the LDNR or , even less so , Crimea ever took place ( there were constant artillery strikes and diversionary attacks , but those remain below the threshold of open warfare ) .
But what we hear today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increasing number of Ukrainian and even Polish observers have declared that Russia would attack this summer or in September , possibly using military maneuvers to move forces to the Ukrainian border and attack .
Depending on whom you ask , such an attack could come from Belarus and/or from central Russia – some even worry about a Russian amphibious operation against the Ukrainian coastline and cities like Mariupol , Nikolaev , Kherson or Odessa .
And just to make things worse , the head of the Ukrainian Navy ( which exists on paper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new Ukrainian missile , the , could reach as far as Sevastopol .
The problem is not the missile itself ( it is a modernized version of an old Soviet design , and it is slow and therefore easy to shoot down ) , but the kind of “ mental background noise ” that this kind of talk of war creates .
From a purely military point of view , Russia does not even have to move any troops to defeat the Ukrainian armed forces : all Russia needs to do is to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reconnaissance-strike complexes to first decapitate , then disorganize and finally destroy the Ukrainian military .
Russia ’ s superiority in the air , on the water and on land is such that the Ukrainians don ’ t have a chance in hell to survive such an attack , nevermind defeating Russia .
The Ukrainians all know that since , after all , their entire military could not even deal with the ( comparatively ) minuscule and infinitely weaker LDNR forces ( at least when compared to regular Russian forces ) .
Still , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : while this would be extremely dangerous to try , they must realize that , unlike in the case of their attacks on the Donbass , should they dare to attack Crimea , President Putin would not have any other option than to order a retaliatory strike of some sort .
Any Ukrainian attack or strike on Crimea would probably fail with all the missiles intercepted long before they could reach their targets , but even in this case the pressure on Putin to put an end to this would be huge .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ incorrect to say that whoever is in power in Kiev can force Russia to openly intervene .
This means that in this specific case the weaker side can have at least some degree of escalation dominance .
Now the Ukraine definitely can not achieve strategic surprise and is even most unlikely to achieve tactical surprise , but , again , the actual success of any Ukrainian strike on Crime does not require the designated targets of the strike to be destroyed : all that would be needed , in some plans at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ things : • Choose the time , place and mode of attack most problematic for the Russian side Finally , I would suggest that we look at this issue from the point of view of the AngloZionist Empire : in many , if not most , ways , the Banderastan the West created in the Ukraine has outlived its utility : the USN won ’ t get a base in Crimea which is now lost forever ( it is now one of the best defended places on the planet ) , Russia has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Ukronazi forces were comprehensively trounced by the Novorussians and in economic terms , and the Ukraine is nothing but one big black hole with an ever growing event horizon .
Which might suggest to some in the US ruling elites that to trigger a losing war against Russia might be the best ( and , possibly , only ) thing their ugly creation could do for them .
Why ?
Well , for one thing , such a war will be bloody , even if it is short .
Second , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to occupy any part of what is today the Nazi-occupied Ukraine , this means that even a total military defeat would not necessarily result in a complete disappearance of the current Banderastan .
Yes , more regions in the East and the South might try to use this opportunity to rise up and liberate themselves , and should that happen Russia might offer the kind of help she offered the Novorussians , but I don ’ t think that anybody seriously believes that Russian tanks will be seen on Kiev or , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Warsaw or Riga ) .
So a military loss against Russia would not be a total loss for Banderastan and it might even yield some beneficial dynamics to whatever consolidated Ukronazi-power might come out from such a conflict .
Actually , should that happen I fully expect the Ukronazis to declare a kind of jihad to liberate the Moskal ’ -occupied Ukraine .
This means that the initial bloodbath would be followed by a festering low to medium level military conflict between Russia and the Ukraine which could last a very long time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In summary , here is one possible scenario which might result in a regional catastrophe : whoever is in power in the Ukraine would begin by realizing that the project of an Ukronazi Banderastan has already failed and that neither the EU nor , even less so , the US is willing to continue to toss money into the Ukie black hole .
Furthermore , clever Ukie politicians will realize that neither Poroshenko nor Zelensii have “ delivered ” the expected “ goods ” to the Empire .
Then the East-European US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Baltic statelets ) also realize that EU money is running out and that far from having achieved any real economic progress ( nevermind any “ miracle ” ) , they are also becoming increasingly irrelevant to their masters in the EU and US .
And , believe me , the political leaders of these US vassal-states have realized a long time ago that a war between Russia and the Ukraine would be a fantastic opportunity for them to regain some value in the eyes of their imperial overlords in the EU and US @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people do , even an attempted Neptune strike against Sevastopol would be a quick and quite reasonable way to force Putin ’ s hand .
Lastly , we can now look at the situation in Russia One would think that following the massive victory the Kremlin has achieved with the vote on the changes to the Russian Constitution , the political situation in Russia would be idyllic , at least compared to the sinking Titanic of the “ collective West ” .
Alas , this is far from being the case .
Here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a potentially dangerous situation inside Russia .
• As I have mentioned in the past , besides the “ official ” ( pretend ) opposition in the Duma , there are now two very distinct “ non-system ” oppositions to Putin : the bad old “ liberals ” ( which I sometimes call the 5th column ) and the ( relatively new ) “ pink-nationalist ” Putin-haters which I christened , somewhat tongue-in-cheek , I admit – ( Ruslan Ostashko calls them “ “ , and that is a very accurate description @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that while Russian 5th and 6th columnists hate each other , they clearly hate Putin even more .
Many of them also hate the Russian people because they don ’ t “ get it ” ( at least in their opinion ) and because time and again the people vote with and for Putin .
Needless to say , these “ 5th and 6th columnists ” ( let ’ s call them “ 5 & 6c ” from now on ) declare that the election was stolen , that millions of votes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ others were counted many times .
According to these 5 & 6c types , it is that Putin would get such a high support therefore the only explanation is that the elections were rigged .
While the sum total of these 5 & 6c types is probably not enough to truly threaten Putin or the Russian society , the Kremlin has to be very careful in how it handles these groups , especially since the condition of the Russian society is clearly deteriorating : • Russia has objective , real , problems which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russians clearly would prefer a much more social and economically active state .
The reality is that the current political system in Russia cares little for the “ little man ” .
The way the Kremlin and the Russian “ big business ” are enmeshed is distressing to a lot of Russians , and I agree with them .
Furthermore , while the western sanctions did a great job preparing Russia for the current crisis , it still remains true that Russia does not operate in such a favorable environment , revenues are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID19 pandemic has also had a devastating effect on Russian small businesses .
And while the issue of the COVID19 virus has not been so hopelessly politicized in Russia has it has in the West , a lot of my contacts report to me that many people feel that the Kremlin and the Moscow authorities have mismanaged the crisis .
So while the non-systemic opposition of the 5 & 6c can not truly threaten Russia , there are enough of what I would call “ toxic and potentially dangerous trends ” inside the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much bigger threat should a crisis suddenly erupt ( including a crisis triggered by an always possible Ukrainian provocation ) .
• More and more Russians , including Putin-supporters , are getting frustrated with what they perceive as being a lame and frankly flaccid Russian foreign policy .
This does not necessarily mean that they disagree with the way Putin deals with the big issues ( say Crimea , or Syria or the West ’ s sabre-rattling ) , but they get especially frustrated by what they perceive as lame Russian responses against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US Congress and the Trump Administration have continued to produce sanctions and stupid accusations against Russia on a quasi-daily basis , yet Russia is really doing nothing much about that , in spite of the fact that there are many options in her political “ toolkit ” to really make the US pay for that attitude .
Another thing which irritates the Russians is that arrogant , condescending and outright rude manner in which western politicians ( and their paid for journalists in Russia ) constantly intervene in internal Russian matters without ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sure , some particularly nasty characters ( and organization ) have been kicked out of Russia , but not nearly enough to really send a clear message Russia ’ s enemies .
• And , just to make things worse , there are some serious problems between Russia and her supposed allies , specifically Belarus and Kazakhstan .
Nothing truly critical has happened yet , but the political situation in Belarus is growing worse by the day ( courtesy of , on one hand , the inept policies of Lukashenko and , on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nationalism , apparently with the approval of the central government ) .
Not only is the destabilization of two major Russian allies a bad thing in itself , it also begs the question of how Putin can deal with , say , Turkey or Poland , when Russia can ’ t even stabilize the situation in Belarus and Kazakhstan .
To a large degree , I share many of these frustrations too and I agree that it is time for Putin and Russia to show a much more proactive posture towards the ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the 5th column is that it is composed of rabid russophobes who hate their own nation and who are nothing but willing prostitutes to the AngloZionist Empire .
They want Russia to become a kind of “ another Poland only further East ” or something equally insipid and uninspiring .
My problem with the 6th column is that it hates Putin much more than it loves Russia , which is regularly shows by predicting either a coup , or a revolution , or a popular uprising or any other bloody event which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ main reasons : • Russia almost destroyed herself twice in just the past century : in 1917 and 1991 .
Each time , the price paid by the Russian people was absolutely horrendous and the Russian nation simply can not afford another major internal conflict .
• Russia is at war against the Empire , and while this war remains roughly an 80 % informational/ideological one , about 15 % an economic one and only about 5 % a kinetic war , it remains that this is a total , existential , war @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or Russia will .
This is therefore a situation where any action which weakens your state , your country and its leader always comes dangerously close to treason .
Right now the biggest blessing for Russia is that neither the 5th nor the 6th column has managed to produce even a halfway credible political figure who at least appears as marginally capable of offering realistic solutions .
A number of 5th columnists have decided to emigrate and leave what they see as “ Putin ’ s Mordor ” .
Alas , I don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ columnists leaving Russia , which objectively makes them a much more useful tool for outfits like the CIA who will not hesitate to infiltrate even a putatively anti-US political movement if this can weaken Russia in general , or Putin personally .
Right now the Russian security services are doing a superb job countering all these threats ( including the still very real Wahabi terrorist threat ) all at the same time .
However , considering the rather unstable and even dangerous international political situation , this could change if all the forces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Putinism ” either join forces or simply strike at the same time .
There are , of course , many other potential flashpoints on the planet , including India , Pakistan and China , the , the Persian Gulf , the Korean Peninsula and many others .
Thus the above is only a sampling of a much larger list .
The huge changes taking place before our eyes are real , and they are huge .
But we should not follow the lead of the corporate media and focus on only one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ especially not when there are plenty of very real dangers out there .
This being said , there is no doubt that what will happen in the next couple of months inside the United States is by far the biggest and most important development out there , one which will shape the future of our planet no matter what actually happens .
And I am not referring to the totally symbolic non-choice between Biden and Trump .
I am referring to how the US society will deal with a virulently anti-US coalition of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , good and bad that it stood for in the past .
Right now the US elites are committing national suicide by not only failing to oppose , but also by actively supporting the BLM thugs and everything they stand for : BLM & Co. remind me of Ukronazis whose main expression of national identity is to hate everything Russian – the BLM thugs do the same thing : their entire worldview is pure hatred of the hetero White male and the western civilization ; and just as the Ukies regale each other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” the BLM folks imagine that they will somehow turn the US into a type before expelling ( or worse ) all those who are not willing to hand over their country to roaming gangs of illiterate thugs .
While Russia has to face the potential of internal violence , the United States is already facing a dangerous and violent insurrection which is likely to become much worse as the economic crisis triggered by the pandemic fully explodes .
So far , the effects of this crisis have been somewhat tempered by a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nature of the threat ( “ oh , nonsense , it is just like the seasonal flu !
“ ) 2 ) the mass distribution of money ( which has only helped temporarily ) 3 ) the existence of a huge financial bubble which will only make matters worse , but which temporarily can create the illusion that things are not nearly as bad as they really are .
It is said that nature abhors a vacuum .
This is true .
It is also true that the collapse of the Empire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be filled by new actors , but there is no guarantee at all that this transition will be peaceful .
So while we are watching some very big trees burning , we should not forget that behind these trees there is a big forest which can also burn , possibly creating a much bigger forest fire than the trees we see burning today .

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Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review
Roughly half-way through the year 2020 it is becoming pretty obvious that there are a number of major developments which almost got our total attention, and for good reason, as these are tectonic shifts which truly qualify as “catastrophe” (under the definition “a violent and sudden change in a feature of the earth“). These are:
The initiation of the global collapse of the AngloZionist Empire.
The immense economic bubble whose ever-growing size is the best predictor of the magnitude of the huge burst it will inevitably result in.
The implosion of the US society due to a combination of several and profound systemic crises (economic collapse, racial tensions, mass poverty, alienation of the masses, absence of social protections, etc.).
The COVID-19 (aka “it’s just like the seasonal flu!!“) pandemic which only exacerbates all the other major factors listed above.
Last, but not least, it is hard to imagine what the next US Presidential election will look like, but one thing is certain: by November we will already have a perfect storm – the election will only act like a battery which will feed even more energy into this already perfect storm.
To be sure, these are truly momentous, historical, developments whose importance cannot be over-stated. They are, however, not the only very serious developments. There are, in fact, several areas of serious political tensions which could also result in a major explosion, albeit a regional one “only”!
I will list just a few, beginning with the most visible one:
Turkey
Erdogan is up to no good. Again. What a big surprise, right? Every time I hear somebody writing something about Erdogan the dreaming of becoming the sultan of a new Ottoman Empire, I tend to roll my eyes as this is a cliche. Yet, there is no denial that this cliche is true – the neo-Ottoman ideology is definitely alive and well in Turkey and Erdogan clearly wants to “ride that horse”. So let’s list some of the things which the Turks have been up to:
Syria: The Turks have clearly been dragging their feet in northern Syria where, at least according to the deal Erdogan made with Putin, the “bad terrorists” should have left a long time ago and the key highway should have been under the joint protection of the Russian and Turkish forces. Well, Turkey did some of this, but not all, and the “bad terrorists” are still very much present in northern Syria. In fact, they recently tried to attack the Russian Aerospace Forces base in Khmeimim (they failed, but that is still something which the Turks have to answer for since the attack came from a zone they control). Protecting terrorists in exchange for promises of immunity from their attacks has been tried many times in the past and it has never worked – sooner or later the terrorist groups always slip out of the control of their masters and even turn against them. This is now happening to Turkey. Libya: The Turks are also deeply involved in the Libyan civil war. In fact, “deeply involved” does not give enough credit to the Turkish military which used Turkish-made drones with devastating effectiveness against the forces of Field Marshal Khalifa Belqasim Haftar, the commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (which is backed by both Russia and Egypt). Only the prompt (and rather mysterious) deployment of Russian air defenses and a number of unidentified MiG-29s succeeded in eventually bringing down enough Turkish drones to force them to take a pause. The Egyptians have made it clear that they will never allow the so-called “Government of National Accord” to take Sirte or any land East of Sirte. The Libyan Parliament (of East Libya) has now given Egypt the official authorization to directly intervene in Libya . This makes some kind of Egyptian intervention an almost certain thing. Hagia Sophia: And just to make sure there are enough sources of tension, the Turks have now declared that the Saint Sophia Cathedral in Istanbul will no longer be a museum open to all, but a mosque. Now the CIA-puppet modestly known as “His Most Divine All-Holiness the Archbishop of Constantinople, New Rome, and Ecumenical Patriarch” Bartholomew should be the most vocal opponent to this move, but all he can do is mumble some irrelevancies (he wanted to go down as the Patriarch who patronized the Ukrainian schism and, instead, he will go down in history as the Patriarch who did nothing to prevent the Ottomans from seizing one of the holiest sites of the Orthodox world. Truth be told, he probably could not have prevented that (Erdogan’s move is entirely due to upcoming elections in Turkey) – but he sure could have tried a little better. Ditto for the head of the Moscow Patriarchate (and, for that matter, the Russian government) who expressed stuff like concern, or dismay, of some form of condemnation, but who really did nothing to make Erdogan pay for his move.
What the Turks just did is a disgrace, not only for Turkey itself which, yet again, proves that the Ottoman version of Islam is a particularly toxic and dangerous one. It is also a disgrace for the entire Muslim world which, with a few notable exceptions such as Sheikh Imran Hosein, has done nothing to prevent this and, if anything, has approved of this move. Finally, this is a disgrace for the entire Orthodox world as it proves that the entire worldwide Orthodox community has less relevance and importance in the eyes of the Turkish leader than the outcome of local elections. Russia, especially, would have the kind of political muscle needed to inflict all sorts of painful forms of retaliation against Turkey and yet Russia does nothing. This is a sad witness to the extreme weakness of the Orthodox faith in the modern world.
Add to this all the “traditional” sources of instability around Turkey, including the still unsolved (and unsolvable!) Kurdish issue, the tensions between Turkey and Iraq and Iran, Turkish low-key support for anti-Russian factions in the various former Soviet Republics and the constant confrontation with Greece).
Turkey remains one of the most dangerous states on the planet, even if most people remain unaware of this. True, in the recent years Turkey lost a lot of its power, but it still has plenty of formidable assets (including a very strong domestic weapon systems manufacturing capability) which it can use for a vast spectrum of nefarious political and military interventions.
Egypt
Egypt is another country which regularly makes some headlines and then disappears from the public’s radar. Yet, right now, Egypt is faced not with one, but with twopossible wars!
Libya: as I mentioned above, should it come to an open clash between Turkey and Egypt in Libya, there could be a rapid horizontal escalation in which initial military clashes in Libya could turn into clashes over the Eastern Mediterranean and even possible strikes on key military objectives in Turkey and Egypt. The only good news here is that there are a lot of major actors who do not need a shooting war in the Eastern Mediterranean and/or the Middle-East. After all, if it came to a true military confrontation between Turkey and Egypt, then you can be pretty sure that NATO, CENTCOM, Greece, Israel and Russia would all have major concerns. Besides, it is hard to imagine what kind of military “victory” either Turkey or Egypt could hope for. Right now the situation is very tense, but we can hope that all the parties will realize that a negotiated solution, even a temporary one, is preferable to a full-scale war. Ethiopia: Egypt has a potentially much bigger problem than Libya to deal with: the construction by Ethiopia of the “ The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)” on the Blue Nile river. While nobody really knows what the eventual impact of this dam will be on Sudan and Egypt, is is pretty clear that a civilization built along the Nile river will face a major threat to its way of life if the way the Nile river flows is disturbed in a major way (which this dam will definitely do).
Of the two possible conflicts I mentioned above, it is the second one which has me most worried. At the end of the day, neither Turkey nor Egypt will get to decide what happens in Libya which is mostly a kind of multi-player “chessboard” where “big guys” (US, France, Russia) will eventually decide the outcome. In the case of the dam in Ethiopia, the local actors will probably have a decisive say, especially since both sides consider that this is an existentially important issue for them.
If you look at a map of the region, you will see that the distance between the Egyptian border and the location of the dam on the border between Ethiopia and Sudan is a long one (about 1’200km or 745 miles). Should it come to a military confrontation between the two countries, this distance will pretty much decide the shape of the warfare we shall see: mainly air and missile strikes. The main problem here (for both sides) is that neither side has the kind of air force or missiles which would allow it to effectively strike the other country. This, however, could change very rapidly, especially if Russia does sell 24 of its advanced Su-35 multi-role air superiority fighters to Egypt, and even more so if Russia throws in a few capable air-to-ground strike missiles into the package (the delivery of the first Sukhois appears to be imminent ). Then there is this “minor detail” of Sudan being stuck between the two combatants: Khartoum simply cannot look away and pretend like all is well if two of its major neighbors decide to fight each other over Sudanese airspace.
In theory Egypt could also try to mount some attack from the Red Sea, but right now the Egyptian Navy does not pack the kind of punch which would allow it to effectively strike Ethiopia (especially with Eritrea in between the Red Sea and Ethiopia). But that could also change, especially since Egypt agreed to purchase the two Gamal Abdel Nasser (ex-Mistral) class amphibious assault ships and helicopter carriers which, while not ideal, would definitely boost the Egyptian’s command and control capabilities, especially if the Egyptians succeed in deploying AWACS and strike aircraft (rotary or even light fixed wing V/STOL ) on these ships. In practice, however, I think that the Egyptians could engage these ships much more effectively in Libya than they would in the Red Sea (especially since these ships are poorly defended against missile strikes).
Finally, not only is the GERD defended by decent air defense systems (along with a few decent, if aging, air force aircraft), a dam is a pretty hard target to disable: it is big, strong, and has a large volume which, by itself, also contributes to the “hardness” against attacks.
So there are reasons to hope that a conflict can be avoided, but it will be very hard to get the two sides to agree to compromises on issues which both sides see as vital to their national security.
The Ukraine
Yes, the Ukraine. Again. This insanity which began with the Euromaidan has not stopped, far from it. In fact, ever since the election of Zelenskii the Ukraine has become something of a madhouse which would be outright hilariously comical if it wasn’t also so tragic and even horrible for millions of Ukrainians. I will spare you all the details, but we can sum up the main development of the past months as “Zelenskii has completely lost control of the country”. But that would not even begin to cover the reality of this situation.
For one thing, the war of words between Trump and Biden over the Ukraine-gate has now “infected” the Ukrainian political scene and each side is now busy with what is known locally as “black PR”: trying to dig up as much dirt against your opponent as possible. Zelenskii is so weak that, amazingly, the previously almost totally discredited Poroshenko has now made a strong comeback and thereby acquired the support of a lot of influential nationalists. The latest incredible (but true!) “informational bomb” was set off by a member of the Ukrainian Rada, Andrei Derkach, who released a recording of Joe Biden and Poroshenko discussing the pros and cons of organizing a terrorist attack in Crimea ( see here for details about this amazing story). This makes both Biden and Poroshenko “sponsors of terrorism” (hardly a surprise, but still). Other “juicy” news stories about the Nazi-occupied Banderastan include Zelenskii possibly fathering a kid with an aid and the brutal attacks on the members of a small (but growing) “Sharii” opposition party which the authorities not only ignored, but most likely ordered in the first place. It is not my purpose here to discuss all the toxic intricacies of internal Ukronazi politics, so I will only look at one of the major dangers resulting from this dynamic: there is talk of war with Russia again.
Okay, we have all heard the very same rumors for years now, and yet no real and sustained Ukrainian attack on the LDNR or, even less so, Crimea ever took place (there were constant artillery strikes and diversionary attacks, but those remain below the threshold of open warfare). But what we hear today is a little bit different: an increasing number of Ukrainian and even Polish observers have declared that Russia would attack this summer or in September, possibly using military maneuvers to move forces to the Ukrainian border and attack. Depending on whom you ask, such an attack could come from Belarus and/or from central Russia – some even worry about a Russian amphibious operation against the Ukrainian coastline and cities like Mariupol, Nikolaev, Kherson or Odessa.
The Ukronazis are truly amazing. First they cut off all the electricity and even water from Crimea, and then they declare that Russia will have to invade to retake control of the water supply. The notion that Russia will solve Crimea’s water problem by peaceful and technological means is, apparently, quite unthinkable for the Ukronazi leaders. In the real world, however, Russia has a comprehensive program to comprehensively solve Crimea’s water problems. This program has begun by laying down water pipes, improving of the irrigation system of Crimea, the use of special aircraft to trigger rain and might even include the creation of a desalination plant. The simple truth is that Russia can easily make Crimea completely independent from anything Ukrainian.
And just to make things worse, the head of the Ukrainian Navy (which exists on paper mostly) has now declared that a new Ukrainian missile, the Neptune , could reach as far as Sevastopol. The problem is not the missile itself ( it is a modernized version of an old Soviet design , and it is slow and therefore easy to shoot down), but the kind of “mental background noise” that this kind of talk of war creates.
From a purely military point of view, Russia does not even have to move any troops to defeat the Ukrainian armed forces: all Russia needs to do is to use its powerful long-range stand-off weapons and reconnaissance-strike complexes to first decapitate, then disorganize and finally destroy the Ukrainian military. Russia’s superiority in the air, on the water and on land is such that the Ukrainians don’t have a chance in hell to survive such an attack, nevermind defeating Russia. The Ukrainians all know that since, after all, their entire military could not even deal with the (comparatively) minuscule and infinitely weaker LDNR forces (at least when compared to regular Russian forces).
Still, the Ukrainians have one advantage over Russia: while this would be extremely dangerous to try, they must realize that, unlike in the case of their attacks on the Donbass, should they dare to attack Crimea, President Putin would not have any other option than to order a retaliatory strike of some sort. Any Ukrainian attack or strike on Crimea would probably fail with all the missiles intercepted long before they could reach their targets, but even in this case the pressure on Putin to put an end to this would be huge. Which means that it would not be incorrect to say that whoever is in power in Kiev can force Russia to openly intervene. This means that in this specific case the weaker side can have at least some degree of escalation dominance.
Now the Ukraine definitely cannot achieve strategic surprise and is even most unlikely to achieve tactical surprise, but, again, the actual success of any Ukrainian strike on Crime does not require the designated targets of the strike to be destroyed: all that would be needed, in some plans at least, is the ability to do two things:
Force Russia to openly intervene and
Choose the time, place and mode of attack most problematic for the Russian side
Finally, I would suggest that we look at this issue from the point of view of the AngloZionist Empire: in many, if not most, ways, the Banderastan the West created in the Ukraine has outlived its utility: the USN won’t get a base in Crimea which is now lost forever (it is now one of the best defended places on the planet), Russia has not openly intervened in the civil war, the Ukronazi forces were comprehensively trounced by the Novorussians and in economic terms, and the Ukraine is nothing but one big black hole with an ever growing event horizon. Which might suggest to some in the US ruling elites that to trigger a losing war against Russia might be the best (and, possibly, only) thing their ugly creation could do for them. Why?
Well, for one thing, such a war will be bloody, even if it is short. Second, since the Russians are exceedingly unlikely to want to occupy any part of what is today the Nazi-occupied Ukraine, this means that even a total military defeat would not necessarily result in a complete disappearance of the current Banderastan. Yes, more regions in the East and the South might try to use this opportunity to rise up and liberate themselves, and should that happen Russia might offer the kind of help she offered the Novorussians, but I don’t think that anybody seriously believes that Russian tanks will be seen on Kiev or, even less so, Lvov (nevermind Warsaw or Riga). So a military loss against Russia would not be a total loss for Banderastan and it might even yield some beneficial dynamics to whatever consolidated Ukronazi-power might come out from such a conflict. Actually, should that happen I fully expect the Ukronazis to declare a kind of jihad to liberate the Moskal’ -occupied Ukraine. This means that the initial bloodbath would be followed by a festering low to medium level military conflict between Russia and the Ukraine which could last a very long time and also be most undesirable for Russia.
During my studies I had the honor and privilege to study with a wonderful Colonel of the Pakistani Army who became a good friend. One day (that was around 1991) I asked my friend what the Pakistani strategy would be during a possible war against India. He replied to me: “look, we all know that India is much stronger and bigger than Pakistan, but what we all also know is that if they attack us we can give them a very bloody nose”. This is exactly what the Ukrainian strategy might be: to give Russia a “bloody nose”. Militarily, this is impossible, of course, but in political terms any open war against the Ukraine would be a disaster for Russia. It would also be a disaster for the Ukraine, but the puppet-masters of the Ukronazis in Kiev don’t care about the people of the Ukraine anymore than they care about the people of Russia: all they want is to give the Russians a big bloody nose.
In summary, here is one possible scenario which might result in a regional catastrophe: whoever is in power in the Ukraine would begin by realizing that the project of an Ukronazi Banderastan has already failed and that neither the EU nor, even less so, the US is willing to continue to toss money into the Ukie black hole. Furthermore, clever Ukie politicians will realize that neither Poroshenko nor Zelensii have “delivered” the expected “goods” to the Empire. Then the East-European US vassal-states (lead by Poland and the Baltic statelets) also realize that EU money is running out and that far from having achieved any real economic progress (nevermind any “miracle”), they are also becoming increasingly irrelevant to their masters in the EU and US. And, believe me, the political leaders of these US vassal-states have realized a long time ago that a war between Russia and the Ukraine would be a fantastic opportunity for them to regain some value in the eyes of their imperial overlords in the EU and US. To people who think like these people do, even an attempted Neptune strike against Sevastopol would be a quick and quite reasonable way to force Putin’s hand.
Lastly, we can now look at the situation in Russia
Russia
One would think that following the massive victory the Kremlin has achieved with the vote on the changes to the Russian Constitution, the political situation in Russia would be idyllic, at least compared to the sinking Titanic of the “collective West”. Alas, this is far from being the case. Here are some of the factors which contribute to a potentially dangerous situation inside Russia.
As I have mentioned in the past, besides the “official” (pretend) opposition in the Duma, there are now two very distinct “non-system” oppositions to Putin: the bad old “liberals” (which I sometimes call the 5th column) and the (relatively new) “pink-nationalist” Putin-haters which I christened, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, I admit – as a 6th column (Ruslan Ostashko calls them “ emo-Marxists “, and that is a very accurate description too). What is so striking is that while Russian 5th and 6th columnists hate each other, they clearly hate Putin even more. Many of them also hate the Russian people because they don’t “get it” (at least in their opinion) and because time and again the people vote with and for Putin. Needless to say, these “5th and 6th columnists” (let’s call them “5&6c” from now on) declare that the election was stolen, that millions of votes were not counted at all, while others were counted many times. According to these 5&6c types, it is literally unthinkable that Putin would get such a high support therefore the only explanation is that the elections were rigged. While the sum total of these 5&6c types is probably not enough to truly threaten Putin or the Russian society, the Kremlin has to be very careful in how it handles these groups, especially since the condition of the Russian society is clearly deteriorating: Russia has objective, real, problems which cannot simply be dismissed. Most Russians clearly would prefer a much more social and economically active state. The reality is that the current political system in Russia cares little for the “little man”. The way the Kremlin and the Russian “big business” are enmeshed is distressing to a lot of Russians, and I agree with them. Furthermore, while the western sanctions did a great job preparing Russia for the current crisis, it still remains true that Russia does not operate in such a favorable environment, revenues are down in many sectors, and the COVID19 pandemic has also had a devastating effect on Russian small businesses. And while the issue of the COVID19 virus has not been so hopelessly politicized in Russia has it has in the West, a lot of my contacts report to me that many people feel that the Kremlin and the Moscow authorities have mismanaged the crisis. So while the non-systemic opposition of the 5&6c cannot truly threaten Russia, there are enough of what I would call “toxic and potentially dangerous trends” inside the Russian society which could turn into a much bigger threat should a crisis suddenly erupt (including a crisis triggered by an always possible Ukrainian provocation). More and more Russians, including Putin-supporters, are getting frustrated with what they perceive as being a lame and frankly flaccid Russian foreign policy. This does not necessarily mean that they disagree with the way Putin deals with the big issues (say Crimea, or Syria or the West’s sabre-rattling), but they get especially frustrated by what they perceive as lame Russian responses against petty provocations. For example, the US Congress and the Trump Administration have continued to produce sanctions and stupid accusations against Russia on a quasi-daily basis, yet Russia is really doing nothing much about that, in spite of the fact that there are many options in her political “toolkit” to really make the US pay for that attitude. Another thing which irritates the Russians is that arrogant, condescending and outright rude manner in which western politicians (and their paid for journalists in Russia) constantly intervene in internal Russian matters without ever being seriously called out for this. Sure, some particularly nasty characters (and organization) have been kicked out of Russia, but not nearly enough to really send a clear message Russia’s enemies. And, just to make things worse, there are some serious problems between Russia and her supposed allies, specifically Belarus and Kazakhstan. Nothing truly critical has happened yet, but the political situation in Belarus is growing worse by the day (courtesy of, on one hand, the inept policies of Lukashenko and, on the other, a resurgence of Kazakh nationalism, apparently with the approval of the central government). Not only is the destabilization of two major Russian allies a bad thing in itself, it also begs the question of how Putin can deal with, say, Turkey or Poland, when Russia can’t even stabilize the situation in Belarus and Kazakhstan.
To a large degree, I share many of these frustrations too and I agree that it is time for Putin and Russia to show a much more proactive posture towards the (eternally hostile) West.
My problem with the 5th column is that it is composed of rabid russophobes who hate their own nation and who are nothing but willing prostitutes to the AngloZionist Empire. They want Russia to become a kind of “another Poland only further East” or something equally insipid and uninspiring.
My problem with the 6th column is that it hates Putin much more than it loves Russia, which is regularly shows by predicting either a coup, or a revolution, or a popular uprising or any other bloody event which Russia simply cannot afford for two main reasons:
Russia almost destroyed herself twice in just the past century: in 1917 and 1991. Each time, the price paid by the Russian people was absolutely horrendous and the Russian nation simply cannot afford another major internal conflict. Russia is at war against the Empire, and while this war remains roughly an 80% informational/ideological one, about 15% an economic one and only about 5% a kinetic war, it remains that this is a total, existential, war for survival: either the Empire disappears or Russia will. This is therefore a situation where any action which weakens your state, your country and its leader always comes dangerously close to treason.
Right now the biggest blessing for Russia is that neither the 5th nor the 6th column has managed to produce even a halfway credible political figure who at least appears as marginally capable of offering realistic solutions. A number of 5th columnists have decided to emigrate and leave what they see as “Putin’s Mordor”. Alas, I don’t see any stream of 6th columnists leaving Russia, which objectively makes them a much more useful tool for outfits like the CIA who will not hesitate to infiltrate even a putatively anti-US political movement if this can weaken Russia in general, or Putin personally.
Right now the Russian security services are doing a superb job countering all these threats (including the still very real Wahabi terrorist threat) all at the same time. However, considering the rather unstable and even dangerous international political situation, this could change if all the forces who hate Putin and what they call “Putinism” either join forces or simply strike at the same time.
Conclusion
There are, of course, many other potential flashpoints on the planet, including India, Pakistan and China, the South China Sea , the Persian Gulf, the Korean Peninsula and many others. Thus the above is only a sampling of a much larger list.
The huge changes taking place before our eyes are real, and they are huge. But we should not follow the lead of the corporate media and focus on only one or two “hot” topics, especially not when there are plenty of very real dangers out there. This being said, there is no doubt that what will happen in the next couple of months inside the United States is by far the biggest and most important development out there, one which will shape the future of our planet no matter what actually happens. And I am not referring to the totally symbolic non-choice between Biden and Trump.
I am referring to how the US society will deal with a virulently anti-US coalition of minorities which hate this country and everything, good and bad that it stood for in the past. Right now the US elites are committing national suicide by not only failing to oppose, but also by actively supporting the BLM thugs and everything they stand for: BLM & Co. remind me of Ukronazis whose main expression of national identity is to hate everything Russian – the BLM thugs do the same thing: their entire worldview is pure hatred of the hetero White male and the western civilization; and just as the Ukies regale each other with stories about the “ancient Ukrs” the BLM folks imagine that they will somehow turn the US into a type Wakanda before expelling (or worse) all those who are not willing to hand over their country to roaming gangs of illiterate thugs.
While Russia has to face the potential of internal violence, the United States is already facing a dangerous and violent insurrection which is likely to become much worse as the economic crisis triggered by the pandemic fully explodes. So far, the effects of this crisis have been somewhat tempered by a combination of 1) political denials about the nature of the threat (“oh, nonsense, it is just like the seasonal flu!“) 2) the mass distribution of money (which has only helped temporarily) 3) the existence of a huge financial bubble which will only make matters worse, but which temporarily can create the illusion that things are not nearly as bad as they really are.
It is said that nature abhors a vacuum. This is true. It is also true that the collapse of the Empire has now created several vacuums which will be filled by new actors, but there is no guarantee at all that this transition will be peaceful. So while we are watching some very big trees burning, we should not forget that behind these trees there is a big forest which can also burn, possibly creating a much bigger forest fire than the trees we see burning today.
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southfront--2020-07-15--Military And Commercial Space Race, Regulatory Vacuum Threaten Viability Of Future Space Activities

The space frontier is becoming increasingly congested with space craft and orbital debris as more and more countries and corporate ventures race to secure a competitive military or commercial advantage over their rivals .
However , international negotiations to develop accepted norms and requirements are hampered by rival national and corporate interests and objectives , and many activities continue to occur in a regulatory vacuum .
Beyond the risk of degrading the utility and viability of the space commons more generally , two recent reports emphasize the dangers posed by the militarization of space in the absence of universally recognized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possibility of disastrous confrontations or accidents .
While the US and the Soviet Union enjoyed a virtual duopoly of space for many years , many countries now have advanced space programs , including India , Iran , North Korea , France , Japan , and Israel .
Moreover , space has now become a lucrative venture for many commercial operators , further multiplying the number of spacecraft and resultant space junk occupying the militarily and commercially useful zones of space .
More than 1,950 active satellites are currently orbiting Earth , and plenty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Reduced costs and growing competition has seen an increasing number of commercial satellites reaching Earth ’ s orbit , which – unlike national space programmes – don ’ t recognize national boundaries .
While commercially viable activities such as mining in space and space tourism have not yet advanced significantly , space ventures by private companies include a growing number of private firms offering satellite launch capabilities to private clients and national governments .
This has helped the spread of satellite technology to countries that lack the resources to develop space programmes of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , compiled by the Union of Concerned Scientists , shows that as of November 2018 the United States had 830 registered units in orbit .
That number almost exceeds the combined total of the rest of the top ten .
China follows with 280 , and Russia is third with 147 .
LINK Surprisingly , Luxembourg operates more active satellites than large European countries like Germany , Spain and Italy .
The principality recently launched the Luxembourg Space Agency ( LSA ) , which uses the launch capabilities of industry partners to enable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But the rush to get more hardware into orbit has resulted in an exponential growth in the amount of orbital debris , or space junk , which can drift for many years and is a potential hazard for other satellites .
There have already been several costly collisions which have resulted in debris spreading into space .
Another potential problem is radio frequency interference .
When satellites are too close to each other and are transmitting on the same frequency , communications signals can be distorted or even deliberately jammed .
Satellites @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the military , which reflects a growing trend of the private sector becoming more involved in space technology .
To ensure long-term sustainability of outer space activities , the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space ( COPUOS ) is drawing up best practice guidelines .
While it is widely recognised that all parties involved – companies , governments and policymakers – have a duty to improve governance in space , progress remains slow in reaching agreement on how best to manage the growing use of space .
LINK Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the number of spacecraft and debris is the militarization of space .
Two recent reports note that the biggest players in space have upgraded their military abilities , including satellite-destroying weapons and technologies that disrupt spacecraft , by , for instance , blocking data collection or transmission .
Destroying a single satellite would scatter a large amount of debris throughout the atmosphere .
Such an explosion could hurl projectiles in the paths of other spacecraft and threaten the accessibility of space for everyone .
The two latest reports were conducted by the Secure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and International Studies ( CSIS ) .
In April Iran ’ s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a successful launch of what it described as a military reconnaissance satellite .
That satellite joined a growing list of weapons and military systems in orbit , including those from Russia ( which in April tested a missile program designed to destroy satellites ) and India ( which launched an anti-satellite weapon in March 2019 ) .
Experts agree that China has also made substantial progress in anti-satellite technology .
The new reports use available evidence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weapons that various countries ’ militaries are developing or testing—or already have operational .
( However , a major omission is that the CSIS ’ s report doesn ’ t include the US military . )
Each nation has unique abilities and characteristics .
For example , India has invested heavily in space infrastructure and capabilities , while Japan ’ s post–World War II space activities were limited until a recent change to its constitution .
For Israel ’ s space program , a representative of the Secure World Foundation said , very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example , the thousands of non-military satellites that are in low-Earth orbits , below an altitude of 1,200 miles , could potentially suffer collateral damage .
More than half of those satellites are from the US ; many of the rest are from China and Russia .
They provide key services like internet access , GPS signals , long-distance communications , and weather information .
Any missile that smashes into a satellite—either as an attack or during a test—would disperse thousands of bits of debris .
Any one of those pieces , still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out another spacecraft and create yet more debris .
When China conducted an anti-satellite missile test in 2007 , it created a massive cloud of space junk that drew international condemnation .
India ’ s engineers tried to limit debris from their recent test by conducting it at a low altitude , so that Earth ’ s gravity would pull the pieces down and they would burn up on descent .
But some pieces were flung up to the International Space Station ’ s orbit .
Numerous countries are now developing new military @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instance , is working on laser beams that could blind another country ’ s satellite , preventing it from taking pictures of classified targets .
North Korea is studying how to jam radio frequency signals sent to or from a satellite , and many countries are devising cyber-attacks that could interfere with satellite systems , particularly the big three space heavyweights—the U.S. , Russia , and China .
The big three have also begun to master what the reports call “ rendezvous and proximity operations , ” which involve using satellites as surveillance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ manoeuvre close to a rival ’ s classified satellite to damage its equipment or disrupt its operations , thereby rendering it useless .
So far , there are relatively few international policies or norms about what ’ s allowed in modern-day space and what ’ s not .
The Secure World Foundation report notes that an incident or misunderstanding could escalate tensions if it ’ s perceived as an attack .
Existing international laws offer little guidance for modern military technology in space .
While these rules—including the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Outer Space Treaty of 1967—prohibit weapons of mass destruction in space , they don ’ t explicitly limit or stipulate acceptable norms for other kinds of space weapons , tests , or military space forces .
The Secure World Foundation suggests that international organizations could create new guidelines by developing something like the Incidents at Sea agreement , which the US and the Soviet Union signed during the Cold War to maintain safe distances between ships and avoid collisions or incidents in heavy traffic .
But until similar rules involving space weaponry are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ satellite tests will inevitably fuel speculation and paranoia , and the possibility of misunderstandings or provocative manoeuvres escalating into military confrontations is heightened .
LINK MORE ON THE TOPIC : • Apocalypse soon ?
US still scrambling and surging to develop new high tech weapons systems • The US is leaving the Open Skies Treaty

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The space frontier is becoming increasingly congested with space craft and orbital debris as more and more countries and corporate ventures race to secure a competitive military or commercial advantage over their rivals. However, international negotiations to develop accepted norms and requirements are hampered by rival national and corporate interests and objectives, and many activities continue to occur in a regulatory vacuum. Beyond the risk of degrading the utility and viability of the space commons more generally, two recent reports emphasize the dangers posed by the militarization of space in the absence of universally recognized norms and obligations designed to minimize the possibility of disastrous confrontations or accidents.
While the US and the Soviet Union enjoyed a virtual duopoly of space for many years, many countries now have advanced space programs, including India, Iran, North Korea, France, Japan, and Israel. Moreover, space has now become a lucrative venture for many commercial operators, further multiplying the number of spacecraft and resultant space junk occupying the militarily and commercially useful zones of space.
More than 1,950 active satellites are currently orbiting Earth, and plenty more will soon be joining them. Reduced costs and growing competition has seen an increasing number of commercial satellites reaching Earth’s orbit, which – unlike national space programmes – don’t recognize national boundaries.
While commercially viable activities such as mining in space and space tourism have not yet advanced significantly, space ventures by private companies include a growing number of private firms offering satellite launch capabilities to private clients and national governments. This has helped the spread of satellite technology to countries that lack the resources to develop space programmes of their own.
The UCS Satellite Database, compiled by the Union of Concerned Scientists, shows that as of November 2018 the United States had 830 registered units in orbit. That number almost exceeds the combined total of the rest of the top ten. China follows with 280, and Russia is third with 147. LINK
Surprisingly, Luxembourg operates more active satellites than large European countries like Germany, Spain and Italy. The principality recently launched the Luxembourg Space Agency (LSA), which uses the launch capabilities of industry partners to enable entrepreneurs to fulfil their commercial space goals.
But the rush to get more hardware into orbit has resulted in an exponential growth in the amount of orbital debris, or space junk, which can drift for many years and is a potential hazard for other satellites. There have already been several costly collisions which have resulted in debris spreading into space.
Another potential problem is radio frequency interference. When satellites are too close to each other and are transmitting on the same frequency, communications signals can be distorted or even deliberately jammed.
Satellites owned by companies heavily outnumber those used by the military, which reflects a growing trend of the private sector becoming more involved in space technology.
To ensure long-term sustainability of outer space activities, the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) is drawing up best practice guidelines. While it is widely recognised that all parties involved – companies, governments and policymakers – have a duty to improve governance in space, progress remains slow in reaching agreement on how best to manage the growing use of space. LINK
Even more concerning than the generalized explosion in the number of spacecraft and debris is the militarization of space. Two recent reports note that the biggest players in space have upgraded their military abilities, including satellite-destroying weapons and technologies that disrupt spacecraft, by, for instance, blocking data collection or transmission. Destroying a single satellite would scatter a large amount of debris throughout the atmosphere. Such an explosion could hurl projectiles in the paths of other spacecraft and threaten the accessibility of space for everyone.
The two latest reports were conducted by the Secure World Foundation and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
In April Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a successful launch of what it described as a military reconnaissance satellite. That satellite joined a growing list of weapons and military systems in orbit, including those from Russia (which in April tested a missile program designed to destroy satellites) and India (which launched an anti-satellite weapon in March 2019). Experts agree that China has also made substantial progress in anti-satellite technology.
The new reports use available evidence and intelligence to explore a range of weapons that various countries’ militaries are developing or testing—or already have operational. (However, a major omission is that the CSIS’s report doesn’t include the US military.) Each nation has unique abilities and characteristics. For example, India has invested heavily in space infrastructure and capabilities, while Japan’s post–World War II space activities were limited until a recent change to its constitution.
For Israel’s space program, a representative of the Secure World Foundation said, very little reliable data is available.
Despite the rapid expansion of military applications and spacecraft – and the array of new space weapons—relevant policies and regulatory bodies have remained stagnant. “What worries us in the international community is that there aren’t necessarily any guardrails for how people are going to start interfering with others’ space systems,” said Daniel Porras, a space security fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva. “There are no rules of engagement.” Potential missile attacks on military satellites “tend to get most of the attention, but that is not all that we see happening around the world,” said Todd Harrison, director of the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS and a principal author of its report, in April.
For example, the thousands of non-military satellites that are in low-Earth orbits, below an altitude of 1,200 miles, could potentially suffer collateral damage. More than half of those satellites are from the US; many of the rest are from China and Russia. They provide key services like internet access, GPS signals, long-distance communications, and weather information. Any missile that smashes into a satellite—either as an attack or during a test—would disperse thousands of bits of debris. Any one of those pieces, still hurtling at orbital speeds, could take out another spacecraft and create yet more debris.
When China conducted an anti-satellite missile test in 2007, it created a massive cloud of space junk that drew international condemnation. India’s engineers tried to limit debris from their recent test by conducting it at a low altitude, so that Earth’s gravity would pull the pieces down and they would burn up on descent. But some pieces were flung up to the International Space Station’s orbit.
Numerous countries are now developing new military technologies for space. France, for instance, is working on laser beams that could blind another country’s satellite, preventing it from taking pictures of classified targets. North Korea is studying how to jam radio frequency signals sent to or from a satellite, and many countries are devising cyber-attacks that could interfere with satellite systems, particularly the big three space heavyweights—the U.S., Russia, and China.
The big three have also begun to master what the reports call “rendezvous and proximity operations,” which involve using satellites as surveillance devices or weapons. A satellite could manoeuvre close to a rival’s classified satellite to damage its equipment or disrupt its operations, thereby rendering it useless.
So far, there are relatively few international policies or norms about what’s allowed in modern-day space and what’s not. The Secure World Foundation report notes that an incident or misunderstanding could escalate tensions if it’s perceived as an attack.
Existing international laws offer little guidance for modern military technology in space. While these rules—including the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty of 1963 and the UN’s Outer Space Treaty of 1967—prohibit weapons of mass destruction in space, they don’t explicitly limit or stipulate acceptable norms for other kinds of space weapons, tests, or military space forces.
The Secure World Foundation suggests that international organizations could create new guidelines by developing something like the Incidents at Sea agreement, which the US and the Soviet Union signed during the Cold War to maintain safe distances between ships and avoid collisions or incidents in heavy traffic. But until similar rules involving space weaponry are hammered out, he said, unexpected satellite tests will inevitably fuel speculation and paranoia, and the possibility of misunderstandings or provocative manoeuvres escalating into military confrontations is heightened. LINK
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southfront--2020-07-15--Massive Fire Broke Out In Egypt’s Shuqair-Mostorod Crude Oil Pipeline (Videos)

Too often big systems has no good program for everythingg is well procuces and kept in shape .
So happenings like this was not an accident but can be predicted .
If I fx go to USA its about the same thing for Corona as well as climate changes .
The systems to avoid things are not good enough or non existing .
When things happen – and they will , there is no well structured and well educated reserved with the needed emergency equiment .
I partly can understand it for USA .
It was created as a high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for themselves in the name of that kind of freedom .
But what I dont understand is , that the high productivity and GDP is not voted into a little more safety .
As written before .
USA next time will get Biden but they need a Sanders .
USA cant develllop ands grow well , when old systems are not compensated/repaired well or replaced by something better .
There are too many of that kind of incidents .
Tempting to compare those fx with SDF “ staling oil deom themself ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a year .
Russia has a big one in a river .

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On July 14, a massive fire broke out in Egypt’s Shuqair-Mostorod crude oil pipeline. According to the country’s health ministry, at least 12 people were injured.
The petroleum ministry statement said that a spark caused by cars driving along the road set crude oil leaking from the pipe on fire. According to authorities, the fire was brought under control. The videos from the site demonstrates the scale of the incident:
"بيت المهمل يخرب قبل بيت الظالم"
الاستغاثات والتحذيرات من وقوع الكارثة على طريق القاهرة اسماعيلية، كانت كتير وكان ممكن تتلحق، بس محدش اهتم واتساب خط مازوت ممتد من موقف العاشر .. الفيديو اثبات على الإهمال في حالة أي تحقيق#مصر_الإسماعيلية pic.twitter.com/qZrrYfkB7e — Muhamed Arafa ? (@sindbad593) July 14, 2020
حريق هائل يلتهم السيارات على طريق #مصر_الإسماعيلية الصحراوي pic.twitter.com/vaRF1pI4WT — اليوم السابع (@youm7) July 14, 2020
حريق هائل يلتهم السيارات على طريق #مصر_الإسماعيلية الصحراوي pic.twitter.com/MqsGq6Exmc — المدار نيوز (@NewsMadar) July 14, 2020
#مصر_الإسماعيلية
صور قبل الحريقة بحوالي ساعة تم إرسال بلاغات واستغاثات بانفجار خط البترول اللي جنب توكيل بيجو بجوار موقف العاشر وللأسف محدش اتحرك وحصلت الكارثة pic.twitter.com/nkA8N7KE9v — رياض باشا المنفلوطي? (@RiadManfalouti) July 14, 2020
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southfront--2020-07-15--Ukrainian Schismatics Trying To Spoil Relations Between Russian And Romanian Churches—Russian Church

Ukrainian Schismatics Trying To Spoil Relations Between Russian And Romanian Churches—Russian Church Rep

The schismatics of the “ Orthodox Church of Ukraine ” ( OCU ) are using the case of a “ bishop ” who left the OCU to return to Philaret Denisenko ’ s “ Kiev Patriarchate ” ( KP ) to start a fight and spoil relations between the Russian and Romanian Orthodox Churches , believes Vladimir Legoida , the head of the Moscow Patriarchate ’ s Synodal Department for Relations Between the Church , Society , and the Media .
, the official KP website announced the return of “ Bishop ” Philaret Panku of Fălești and East Moldova @ @ @ @ @ @ @ OCU , after Denisenko himself abandoned the OCU to relaunch his KP the previous June .
The next day , the Synod of the OCU “ retired ” Panku , though the KP considers that he is now under no obligation to obey the OCU Synod .
Panku later of a number of deceptions .
Having learned that Philaret Panku secretly traveled to Kiev to visit “ Patriarch ” Philaret Denisenko and declared his refusal to obey the dictates of the OCU , the Synod of the OCU resolved to officially exclude Panku @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Moreover , the OCU Synod made the curious decision to give His Beatitude Patriarch Daniel of Romania the right to judge the further canonical status of Panku , as Moldova is included within the territory of the Romanian Orthodox Church .
Recall that the Romanian Orthodox Church has never recognized the OCU as an Orthodox Church and is not in communion with it .
Furthermore , Philaret Panku has never been a clergyman of the Romanian Church and has no relationship to it .
“ Several conclusions and questions flow from this step @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Firstly , by expelling Panku for returning to the KP , the OCU thereby recognizes the existence of the KP , which it had previously refused to do , insisting that “ Patriarch ” Philaret Denisenko is still a hierarch of the OCU .
“ Secondly , by entrusting the fate of Panku to the Romanian Patriarchate , Epiphany seems to be trying to somehow establish relations with the Romanian Church , which has not yet recognized the schismatic Church and doesn ’ t seem to be planning on it .
Probably , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to aggravate relations between the Russian and Romanian Churches , ” the Russian Church speaker stressed .
It will be interesting to see how the Romanian Church responds , Legoida writes .
“ It ’ s not clear what the Romanian Church has to do with it at all , ” he comments , noting that according to the tomos of autocephaly granted to the OCU by the Patriarchate of Constantinople , all parishes of the KP and the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church ( the two churches that merged into the OCU ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the jurisdiction of Constantinople .
“ According to the ‘ tomos , ’ Panku should be handled by none other than Patriarch Bartholomew , ” explains Legoida .
But Pat .
Bartholomew either does not have the strength and authority , or Epiphany himself does not respect the Patriarch and the tomos granted by him , “ which then raises the question of the termination of this document , ” Legoida writes .
In any case , it is clear that Pat .
Bartholomew failed to achieve his goal of uniting Ukrainian Orthodoxy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one canonical Church—the Ukrainian Orthodox Church under His Beatitude Metropolitan Onuphry of Kiev and All Ukraine—and two schismatic churches , and the situation remains the same now after the granting of the tomos .
MORE ON THE TOPIC : • Patriarch Of Constantinople Made Bet And Lost .
Overtures To West Undermined Patriarchy Positions In East

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Originally appeared on OrthoChristian.com
The schismatics of the “Orthodox Church of Ukraine” (OCU) are using the case of a “bishop” who left the OCU to return to Philaret Denisenko’s “Kiev Patriarchate” (KP) to start a fight and spoil relations between the Russian and Romanian Orthodox Churches, believes Vladimir Legoida, the head of the Moscow Patriarchate’s Synodal Department for Relations Between the Church, Society, and the Media.
On February 3 , the official KP website announced the return of “Bishop” Philaret Panku of Fălești and East Moldova to Denisenko’s group from the OCU, after Denisenko himself abandoned the OCU to relaunch his KP the previous June. The next day, the Synod of the OCU “retired” Panku, though the KP considers that he is now under no obligation to obey the OCU Synod. Panku later accused the OCU of a number of deceptions.
Having learned that Philaret Panku secretly traveled to Kiev to visit “Patriarch” Philaret Denisenko and declared his refusal to obey the dictates of the OCU, the Synod of the OCU resolved to officially exclude Panku from the ranks of its hierarchs on July 9 .
Moreover, the OCU Synod made the curious decision to give His Beatitude Patriarch Daniel of Romania the right to judge the further canonical status of Panku, as Moldova is included within the territory of the Romanian Orthodox Church.
Recall that the Romanian Orthodox Church has never recognized the OCU as an Orthodox Church and is not in communion with it. Furthermore, Philaret Panku has never been a clergyman of the Romanian Church and has no relationship to it.
“Several conclusions and questions flow from this step,” Vladimir Legoida commented on his Telegram channel.
Firstly, by expelling Panku for returning to the KP, the OCU thereby recognizes the existence of the KP, which it had previously refused to do, insisting that “Patriarch” Philaret Denisenko is still a hierarch of the OCU .
“Secondly, by entrusting the fate of Panku to the Romanian Patriarchate, Epiphany seems to be trying to somehow establish relations with the Romanian Church, which has not yet recognized the schismatic Church and doesn’t seem to be planning on it. Probably, the head of the OCU would like to aggravate relations between the Russian and Romanian Churches,” the Russian Church speaker stressed.
It will be interesting to see how the Romanian Church responds, Legoida writes.
“It’s not clear what the Romanian Church has to do with it at all,” he comments, noting that according to the tomos of autocephaly granted to the OCU by the Patriarchate of Constantinople, all parishes of the KP and the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church (the two churches that merged into the OCU) outside of Ukraine were to move to the jurisdiction of Constantinople.
“According to the ‘tomos,’ Panku should be handled by none other than Patriarch Bartholomew,” explains Legoida.
But Pat. Bartholomew either does not have the strength and authority, or Epiphany himself does not respect the Patriarch and the tomos granted by him, “which then raises the question of the termination of this document,” Legoida writes.
In any case, it is clear that Pat. Bartholomew failed to achieve his goal of uniting Ukrainian Orthodoxy, as before the tomos there was one canonical Church—the Ukrainian Orthodox Church under His Beatitude Metropolitan Onuphry of Kiev and All Ukraine—and two schismatic churches, and the situation remains the same now after the granting of the tomos.
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southfront--2020-07-15--First Person Video Shows Moment Of Car Bomb Attack On Turkish-Russian Convoy In Syria’s Idlib

Russian AF has already bombed the shit out of them..
The Russian Air Force has issued its response to the attempted militant drone strikes on the Hmeimim Airbase over the weekend , as their warplanes hammered the jihadist rebel positions in the Jabal Al-Akrad and Jisr Al-Shughour regions .
According to a field report from the Latakia Governorate , the Russian warplanes carried out several airstrikes over the jihadist stronghold of Kabani , resulting in the destruction of bases and trenches .
The report said the Russian Air Force then carried out several airstrikes along the Latakia-Idlib axis , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Turkestan Islamic Party ( TIP ) and the Al-Qaeda-linked Hurras Al-Deen group .
At the same time , Russian warplanes were seen flying over the Jabal Al-Zawiya region of southern Idlib .
These reconnaissance flights were likely giving the Syrian Arab Army ( SAA ) coordinates of the jihadist rebels in Jabal Al-Zawiya , as the latter later launched several artillery and missile strikes against the militants there .
Over the weekend , the jihadist rebels attempted to bomb the largest Russian airbase in Syria , Hmeimim ( Khmeimim ) , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It should be pointed out that the jihadist drone strikes on the Hmeimim Airbase were unsuccessful , as they were foiled by the joint air defenses of the Russian and Syrian armed forces .

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On July 14, a car bomb (with a suicide bomber) exploded on the way of a joint Russian-Turkish patrol on the M4 highway in Syria’s southern Idlib. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, 3 Russian troops were injured in the attack. The Turkish Defense Ministry reported that nobody was killed in the attack, but two vehicles suffered partial damage. MORE HERE
The video below shows how the explosion that caused this ‘partial damage’ looked on the ground.
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southfront--2020-07-16--Military Situation In Yemen On July 16, 2020 (Map Update)

Click to see the full-size image A brief overview of the recent developments in Yemen : • The Liaison and @ @ @ @ @ ( loyal to Ansar Allah ) reported 99 ceasefire violations in al-Hudaydah over the past @ @ @ @ @ Saudi-led forces and Ansar Allah were reported in the Dhale province ; • Clashes between @ @ @ @ @ were reported in the Abdiyah district .
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A brief overview of the recent developments in Yemen:
Saudi-led coalition warplanes conducted 10 airstrikes on the Boqa area;
Saudi-led coalition warplanes conducted 3 airstrikes on the Haradh area;
Saudi-led coalition warplanes conducted 4 airstrikes on the Majzar area;
The Liaison and Coordination Officers’ Operations Room (loyal to Ansar Allah) reported 99 ceasefire violations in al-Hudaydah over the past 24h;
Clashes between Saudi-led forces and Ansar Allah were reported in the Dhale province;
Clashes between Saudi-led forces and Ansar Allah were reported in the Abdiyah district.
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