southfront--2020-09-29--Pentagon Hastily Awards $13 Billion Contract For ICBMs To Northrop Grumman

A recent analysis by Defense One notes that the announcement by the US Air Force that it will award Northrop Grumman $ 13.3 billion to develop a new intercontinental ballistic missile raises more questions than it answers .
First and foremost : what ’ s the rush ?
The move greatly complicates the ability of the next administration to revise the Pentagon ’ s $ 2 trillion nuclear modernization plan in light of other demands both within and beyond the military budget .
The author of the report argues that it appears that strategic concerns aren ’ t the only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ formally as the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent , or GBSD .
The establishment of the nuclear triad of sea- and land-based strategic missiles and long-range nuclear bombers had a lot to do with inter-service rivalry within the US armed forces and the competition for funding , rather than being based on a careful calculation of how best to protect the United States from nuclear attack .
The financial and bureaucratic imperatives that gave us the ICBM continue to this day , as evidenced by the highly effective self-promotion campaigns of contractors such as Northrop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases by the Senate ICBM Coalition , a group of senators from states that host ICBM bases or are involved in major development programs for the missiles .
Acting together , this coalition of special interest lobby groups has defeated most efforts to consider the costs and consequences of building new ICBMs , including a proposed amendment to this year ’ s National Defense Authorization Act , sponsored by Representative Ro Khanna ( a member of the Democrats from California ) , that would have cut $ 1 billion from the GBSD program @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 crisis .
The clout of the ICBM lobby is underpinned by the fact that contractors involved with the program have given $ 4.1 million to key members of Congress since 2012 , and that together Northrop Grumman and its major subcontractors , including Bechtel , Lockheed Martin , and General Dynamics , employ over 500 lobbyists , nearly one for every member of Congress .
While obviously not all of these lobbyists work on the ICBM issue , the number of people permanently employed by these companies to promote their interests on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ political power .
The process through which the new ICBM development contract was awarded raises additional questions .
In the lead up to the Pentagon awarding the ICBM development contract , there were two competitors , Boeing and Northrop Grumman .
But in June 2019 , Boeing pulled out , claiming that the terms of the contract were unfairly tilted in favour of Northrop Grumman .
A key complaint was Northrop Grumman ’ s acquisition of Orbital ATK , the main US producer of solid rocket motors used in ICBMs .
Before the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Boeing team that was bidding to develop the new missile .
Another problem posed by the sole-source award of the ICBM development contract is that the already astronomical costs of the program could rise still further because of the Pentagon ’ s limited bargaining power in negotiating the contract .
The problem could be exacerbated if Northrop Grumman ’ s missile fails to perform as advertised .
At a minimum , Congress needs to investigate the terms of the contract in detail to make sure the company is held accountable for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to develop the new system .
More importantly , Congress and the next administration should reconsider whether a new ICBM is needed at all .
Consistent with this perspective , a June 2020 report by the Union of Concerned Scientists argued that rather than building a new ICBM at an estimated cost of $ 85 billion to $ 150 billion , the current generation of ICBMs should be taken off hair-trigger alert and refurbished , as the first of a series of steps towards eliminating land-based nuclear missiles altogether .
MORE ON THE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still scrambling and surging to develop new high tech weapons systems • US on again off again partial troop withdrawal from Iraq on again

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A recent analysis by Defense One notes that the announcement by the US Air Force that it will award Northrop Grumman $13.3 billion to develop a new intercontinental ballistic missile raises more questions than it answers. First and foremost: what’s the rush? The move greatly complicates the ability of the next administration to revise the Pentagon’s $2 trillion nuclear modernization plan in light of other demands both within and beyond the military budget.
The author of the report argues that it appears that strategic concerns aren’t the only drivers of the new program, known formally as the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent, or GBSD. The establishment of the nuclear triad of sea- and land-based strategic missiles and long-range nuclear bombers had a lot to do with inter-service rivalry within the US armed forces and the competition for funding, rather than being based on a careful calculation of how best to protect the United States from nuclear attack.
The financial and bureaucratic imperatives that gave us the ICBM continue to this day, as evidenced by the highly effective self-promotion campaigns of contractors such as Northrop Grumman and Aerojet, joined in many cases by the Senate ICBM Coalition, a group of senators from states that host ICBM bases or are involved in major development programs for the missiles.
Acting together, this coalition of special interest lobby groups has defeated most efforts to consider the costs and consequences of building new ICBMs, including a proposed amendment to this year’s National Defense Authorization Act, sponsored by Representative Ro Khanna (a member of the Democrats from California), that would have cut $1 billion from the GBSD program and applied the funding to addressing the COVID-19 crisis.
The clout of the ICBM lobby is underpinned by the fact that contractors involved with the program have given $4.1 million to key members of Congress since 2012, and that together Northrop Grumman and its major subcontractors, including Bechtel, Lockheed Martin, and General Dynamics, employ over 500 lobbyists, nearly one for every member of Congress. While obviously not all of these lobbyists work on the ICBM issue, the number of people permanently employed by these companies to promote their interests on Capitol Hill reflects the extent of their political power.
The process through which the new ICBM development contract was awarded raises additional questions. In the lead up to the Pentagon awarding the ICBM development contract, there were two competitors, Boeing and Northrop Grumman. But in June 2019, Boeing pulled out, claiming that the terms of the contract were unfairly tilted in favour of Northrop Grumman. A key complaint was Northrop Grumman’s acquisition of Orbital ATK, the main US producer of solid rocket motors used in ICBMs. Before the acquisition, Orbital ATK had been part of the Boeing team that was bidding to develop the new missile.
Another problem posed by the sole-source award of the ICBM development contract is that the already astronomical costs of the program could rise still further because of the Pentagon’s limited bargaining power in negotiating the contract. The problem could be exacerbated if Northrop Grumman’s missile fails to perform as advertised.
At a minimum, Congress needs to investigate the terms of the contract in detail to make sure the company is held accountable for efficiently spending the billions it is receiving to develop the new system. More importantly, Congress and the next administration should reconsider whether a new ICBM is needed at all.
Former Defense Secretary William Perry hit the nail on the head when he said, “The highest probability of starting a nuclear war is a mistaken launch caused by a false alarm and a rushed decision to launch nuclear-armed ICBMs. Instead of spending billions of dollars on new nuclear missiles we don’t need, we must focus on preventing accidental nuclear war.”
Consistent with this perspective, a June 2020 report by the Union of Concerned Scientists argued that rather than building a new ICBM at an estimated cost of $85 billion to $150 billion, the current generation of ICBMs should be taken off hair-trigger alert and refurbished, as the first of a series of steps towards eliminating land-based nuclear missiles altogether.
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southfront--2020-09-29--Israeli PM Netanyahu Claims Hezbollah Located Missile Factory In Residential Area

In his address to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday , Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah of maintaining a ‘ secret arms depot ’ in a residential neighbourhood of Beirut , warning it could cause another tragic explosion in the Lebanese capital .
During the speech , Netanyahu showed maps purportedly showing the missile depot ’ s location next to a gas station and residential housing .
He also showed what he said was a picture of the entrance to the depot .
Early last month , a warehouse filled with nearly 3,000 tons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s port , killing nearly 200 people , wounding thousands and causing widespread destruction in the capital .
The ammonium nitrate had been stored there for several years .
The cause of the blast is still being investigated .
Promoting the normalization deals with the UAE and Bahrain , Netanyahu then went on to once again rail against his arch enemy Iran , saying Israel and the Arab states would “ not only stand together in advancing peace , we stand together in confronting the greatest enemy of peace in the Middle East @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet again , that Iran would have “ enough enriched uranium in a few months for two nuclear bombs.
” Netanyahu praised Trump ’ s decision to withdraw from the JCPOA nuclear deal and called on the world to follow the US in applying ‘ snap back ’ sanctions .
Netanyahu also claimed that another weapons depot had exploded just a few days ago in the southern Lebanese village of Ain Qana , near the port city of Sidon .
It is not clear what caused that explosion , which sent smoke billowing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any casualties .
Israel has repeatedly accused Hezbollah of storing weapons and maintaining military outposts in civilian areas , especially in the southern suburbs of Beirut and southern Lebanon , both strongholds of support for the Iran-backed militant group .
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah denied Netanyahu ’ s allegations , insisting the group does not store missiles in civilian facilities .
“ Whoever wants to go can go now .
If Hezbollah is storing missiles in this facility then there is not enough time to remove them , ” Nasrallah said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the port or near gas facilities .
We know where to store missiles.
” “ We will allow media outlets to enter the facility so that the world knows that Netanyahu is lying , ” he added .
LINK After Netanyahu ’ s address , the Israeli military released detailed maps showing the site that the prime minister had referenced as well as two other alleged missile depots it said were located under residential apartment blocks .
The information compiled by the IDF claims to expose “ three Hezbollah Precision Guided Missile ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ neighbourhoods in the heart of the Lebanese capital , Beirut.
” The three locations identified are all either in or in close proximity to civilian buildings : • An underground PGM manufacturing site in the Laylaki neighbourhood : the site is underneath a seven-story residential building , home to over 70 families , and is near a medical centreand a churchapproximately 130 metres from the site .
• An underground PGM manufacturing site located in the Chouaifet neighbourhood : the site is underneath a five-story residential building , home to approximately 50 families @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approximately 90 metres north of it .
• A PGM manufacturing site in the industrial area of the Jnah neighbourhood : the site is nearby two gas companies , one immediately adjacent and one 50 meters away , and a gas station , which is a few dozen metres away .
The Israeli military goes on to allege that “ these PGM manufacturing sites , deliberately placed in the heart of populated areas in Beirut , put the lives of Lebanese civilians at risk .
The disaster which occurred in the Beirut Port @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showcase the extent to which the lives , the security , and the property of Lebanese civilians are at risk .
Hezbollah ’ s strategy to hide weapons and operate from civilian neighbourhoods stems from its intentions to draw the IDF to target these civilian areas in times of escalation .
If Hezbollah were to target Israeli civilians from these sites , the IDF would have no choice but to react—potentially placing Lebanese civilians in harm ’ s way—causing international outrage toward the IDF.
” The Israeli military accused Hezbollah of using the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , not only by placing PGM manufacturing sites in civilian neighbourhoods , but also by placing weapon warehouses in civilian areas across Lebanon .
Two videos were also produced to elaborate upon the allegations .
An Arabic spokesperson for the Israeli Army also released a video in Arabic describing what Israel claims to be Hezbollah ’ s Precision Guided Missle ( PGM ) manufacturing sites in Beirut .
The statement by the Israeli military concludes : MORE ON THE TOPIC :

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In his address to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah of maintaining a ‘secret arms depot’ in a residential neighbourhood of Beirut, warning it could cause another tragic explosion in the Lebanese capital.
During the speech, Netanyahu showed maps purportedly showing the missile depot’s location next to a gas station and residential housing. He also showed what he said was a picture of the entrance to the depot.
“Here’s where the next explosion will take place, right here,” he said.
Addressing the Lebanese people, he said: “You’ve got to act now, you’ve got to protest this, because if this thing explodes, it’s another tragedy. … You should tell them, ‘Tear these depots down.’”
Early last month, a warehouse filled with nearly 3,000 tons of ammonium nitrate exploded in Beirut’s port, killing nearly 200 people, wounding thousands and causing widespread destruction in the capital. The ammonium nitrate had been stored there for several years. The cause of the blast is still being investigated.
Promoting the normalization deals with the UAE and Bahrain, Netanyahu then went on to once again rail against his arch enemy Iran, saying Israel and the Arab states would “not only stand together in advancing peace, we stand together in confronting the greatest enemy of peace in the Middle East — Iran.”
Netanyahu also claimed, yet again, that Iran would have “enough enriched uranium in a few months for two nuclear bombs.”
Netanyahu praised Trump’s decision to withdraw from the JCPOA nuclear deal and called on the world to follow the US in applying ‘snap back’ sanctions.
He told the people of Lebanon that “Israel means you no harm, but Iran does,” and that “Iran and Hezbollah have deliberately put you and your families in grave danger.”
Finally, Netanyahu said “both Arabs and Israelis are urging tough action on Iran, and when Arabs and Israelis agree, other should pay attention.”
Netanyahu also claimed that another weapons depot had exploded just a few days ago in the southern Lebanese village of Ain Qana, near the port city of Sidon. It is not clear what caused that explosion, which sent smoke billowing into the sky but did not cause any casualties.
Israel has repeatedly accused Hezbollah of storing weapons and maintaining military outposts in civilian areas, especially in the southern suburbs of Beirut and southern Lebanon, both strongholds of support for the Iran-backed militant group.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah denied Netanyahu’s allegations, insisting the group does not store missiles in civilian facilities. “Whoever wants to go can go now. If Hezbollah is storing missiles in this facility then there is not enough time to remove them,” Nasrallah said. “We don’t store missiles at the port or near gas facilities. We know where to store missiles.” “We will allow media outlets to enter the facility so that the world knows that Netanyahu is lying,” he added. LINK
After Netanyahu’s address, the Israeli military released detailed maps showing the site that the prime minister had referenced as well as two other alleged missile depots it said were located under residential apartment blocks.
The information compiled by the IDF claims to expose “three Hezbollah Precision Guided Missile (PGM) manufacturing sites located in civilian neighbourhoods in the heart of the Lebanese capital, Beirut.”
The three locations identified are all either in or in close proximity to civilian buildings:
An underground PGM manufacturing site in the Laylaki neighbourhood: the site is underneath a seven-story residential building, home to over 70 families, and is near a medical centreand a churchapproximately 130 metres from the site.
An underground PGM manufacturing site located in the Chouaifet neighbourhood: the site is underneath a five-story residential building, home to approximately 50 families, and is nearby a mosque, approximately 90 metres north of it.
A PGM manufacturing site in the industrial area of the Jnah neighbourhood: the site is nearby two gas companies, one immediately adjacent and one 50 meters away, and a gas station, which is a few dozen metres away.
The Israeli military goes on to allege that “these PGM manufacturing sites, deliberately placed in the heart of populated areas in Beirut, put the lives of Lebanese civilians at risk. The disaster which occurred in the Beirut Port last August and the explosions in September showcase the extent to which the lives, the security, and the property of Lebanese civilians are at risk. Hezbollah’s strategy to hide weapons and operate from civilian neighbourhoods stems from its intentions to draw the IDF to target these civilian areas in times of escalation. If Hezbollah were to target Israeli civilians from these sites, the IDF would have no choice but to react—potentially placing Lebanese civilians in harm’s way—causing international outrage toward the IDF.”
The Israeli military accused Hezbollah of using the civilian population as ‘human shields’, not only by placing PGM manufacturing sites in civilian neighbourhoods, but also by placing weapon warehouses in civilian areas across Lebanon. Two videos were also produced to elaborate upon the allegations.
An Arabic spokesperson for the Israeli Army also released a video in Arabic describing what Israel claims to be Hezbollah’s Precision Guided Missle (PGM) manufacturing sites in Beirut.
#عاجل كشف النقاب عن ثلاثة مواقع لانتاج مواد تستخدم في مشروع الصواريخ الدقيقة الذي يديره #حزب_الله في مناطق سكنية لبنانية مكتظة وبالقرب من اماكن يقصدها المواطنون دومًا.لبنان إلى أين؟ الجواب بات واضحًا ليبقى السؤال الأهم أين الدولة اللبنانية المؤتمنة على صيانة سيادتها وحماية شعبها؟ pic.twitter.com/MHt2Tmkreb — افيخاي ادرعي (@AvichayAdraee) September 29, 2020
The statement by the Israeli military concludes:
The State of Israel and the IDF have reported these sites numerous times, both to the UN and to additional diplomatic networks, as well as through various media channels. In its decision to expose these three sites in Beirut, the IDF hopes to call the Lebanese government out again, with the support of the international community, to intervene in the matter. The IDF hopes to help Lebanese civilians protect themselves from the risks caused by the entrenchment of the Iranian-proxy Hezbollah in their country. The IDF will continue to extensively operate against these threats through various methods and tools to protect both Israeli and Lebanese civilians.
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southfront--2020-09-29--Armenia Claims 790 Azerbaijani Soldiers Killed, 137 Equipment Pieces Destroyed As Azerbaijan Pounds

Armenia Claims 790 Azerbaijani Soldiers Killed, 137 Equipment Pieces Destroyed As Azerbaijan Pounds Armenian Positions In Karabakh

On September 29 evening , the Armenian Ministry of Defense announced that since the morning of September 27 , about 790 Azerbaijani servicemen have been killed and 1,900 people have been injured in the conflict erupted in the Nagorno-Karabakh region .
The Armenian military also claimed that its forces destroyed 137 units military equipment , including battle tanks , 72 drones , 7 helicopters and a military plane .
The Armenian side claims that its forces had eliminated a column with ammunition of Azerbaijani forces : The Armenian media also reports not only the dramatic increase of a number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Azerbaijani advance , but also the unity among the prominent veterans .
Armenain media released photos showing the meeting in a relative proximity to the frontline of prominent officers and generals , including Seyran Ohanyan , Vitaly Balasanyan , Arshavir Garamyan , Samvel Bababyan , Levon Mnatsakanyan , Kamo Ogadzhanyan , Artur Aghabekyan , Samvel Karapetyan and Movses Hakobyan .
While this move was likely aimed at boosting the morale of the Armenian side , it also showcases the difficulty of the current situation .
The pro-US government of Armenia created a situation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overwhelming force of Azerbaijan supported by Turkey .
The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reported that its artillery strikes pounded positions of the 1st battalion of the 5th Motorized Rifle Regiment near Gasangaya in the Tartar area and the 1st battalion of 6th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Armed Forces of Armenia in the Talysh area .
Azerbaijan claims that the Armenian military suffered heavy losses , and has been facing difficulties in finding equipment for organizing the evacuation of the dead and wounded .
The work of Azerbaijani combat drones .
The Azerbaijani side @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drones but also Israeli Harpy loitering munitions : Meanwhile , the Turkish leadership continued making loud statements vowing to support Azerbaijan in the war with Armenia .
As of now , the only factor that stops Turkey from directly assisting the Azerbaijani advance on the Nagorno-Karabakh Region is that this move may trigger a military response from Russia that will have to react to any direct threat to Armenian sovereignty .
This threat will appear inevitably if Turkey joins the war openly .
On the other hand , Iran is reportedly deploying additional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic .
Azerbaijani sources already accused that Russia uses Iranian territory to supply Armenia with weapons and equipment .
Nonetheless , this is just a propaganda .
What is more likely is that regional actors are just preparing for a possible expansion of the conflict into a big regional war .
MORE ON THE TOPIC : • Azerbaijani-Armenian War : Turkish F-16s Enter The Game .
Armenia Threatens To Use Iskander Missiles

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On September 29 evening, the Armenian Ministry of Defense announced that since the morning of September 27, about 790 Azerbaijani servicemen have been killed and 1,900 people have been injured in the conflict erupted in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The Armenian military also claimed that its forces destroyed 137 units military equipment, including battle tanks, 72 drones, 7 helicopters and a military plane.
The Armenian side claims that its forces had eliminated a column with ammunition of Azerbaijani forces:
The Armenian media also reports not only the dramatic increase of a number of volunteers that moving to fight back the Azerbaijani advance, but also the unity among the prominent veterans. Armenain media released photos showing the meeting in a relative proximity to the frontline of prominent officers and generals, including Seyran Ohanyan, Vitaly Balasanyan, Arshavir Garamyan, Samvel Bababyan, Levon Mnatsakanyan, Kamo Ogadzhanyan, Artur Aghabekyan, Samvel Karapetyan and Movses Hakobyan.
While this move was likely aimed at boosting the morale of the Armenian side, it also showcases the difficulty of the current situation. The pro-US government of Armenia created a situation in which Armenia has been facing an overwhelming force of Azerbaijan supported by Turkey.
The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reported that its artillery strikes pounded positions of the 1st battalion of the 5th Motorized Rifle Regiment near Gasangaya in the Tartar area and the 1st battalion of 6th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Armed Forces of Armenia in the Talysh area. Azerbaijan claims that the Armenian military suffered heavy losses, and has been facing difficulties in finding equipment for organizing the evacuation of the dead and wounded.
The work of Azerbaijani combat drones. The Azerbaijani side uses not only Turkish Bayraktar TB2 combat drones but also Israeli Harpy loitering munitions:
Meanwhile, the Turkish leadership continued making loud statements vowing to support Azerbaijan in the war with Armenia. As of now, the only factor that stops Turkey from directly assisting the Azerbaijani advance on the Nagorno-Karabakh Region is that this move may trigger a military response from Russia that will have to react to any direct threat to Armenian sovereignty. This threat will appear inevitably if Turkey joins the war openly.
On the other hand, Iran is reportedly deploying additional troops and equipment to the border area with the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Azerbaijani sources already accused that Russia uses Iranian territory to supply Armenia with weapons and equipment. Nonetheless, this is just a propaganda. What is more likely is that regional actors are just preparing for a possible expansion of the conflict into a big regional war.
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southfront--2020-09-29--CIA Trains Radicals, Prepare Major Provocation In Belarus

Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin warned that the United States has been taking active steps to destabilize the situation in Belarus .
According to the released statement , instructors from the United States use “ the most unscrupulous methods ” on the territory of the republic to destabilize the situation .
These are US “ specialists ” from the CIA , the Pentagon and the State Department .
Sergei Naryshkin added that Belarusian extremists are being trained in Poland , Georgia , Ukraine and the Baltic states with the participation of instructors from the Central Intelligence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the US State Department of non-governmental organizations .
The United States is also interfering in the religious situation in Belarus , seeking to create tensions between the Orthodox and Catholics communities .
“ According to available data , the United States is also unceremoniously interfering in the religious situation in Belarus , seeking to create a conflict between representatives of the Orthodox and Catholic branches of Christianity , ” he said .
“ Trying to involve the Vatican , which is showing restraint in the Belarusian events , the Americans are working to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in anti-government protests.
” The Foreign Intelligence Head noted that the US seeks to motivate the Roman Catholic Church to openly criticize the Belarusian government and use religious events , including sermons , prayers , religious processions , to conduct “ opposition political propaganda among believers.
” MORE ON THE TOPIC : • Azerbaijani-Armenian War : Turkish F-16s Enter The Game .
Armenia Threatens To Use Iskander Missiles

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Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin warned that the United States has been taking active steps to destabilize the situation in Belarus.
According to the released statement, instructors from the United States use “the most unscrupulous methods” on the territory of the republic to destabilize the situation. These are US “specialists” from the CIA, the Pentagon and the State Department.
Sergei Naryshkin added that Belarusian extremists are being trained in Poland, Georgia, Ukraine and the Baltic states with the participation of instructors from the Central Intelligence Agency and the Pentagon, affiliated with the US State Department of non-governmental organizations.
The United States is also interfering in the religious situation in Belarus, seeking to create tensions between the Orthodox and Catholics communities.
“According to available data, the United States is also unceremoniously interfering in the religious situation in Belarus, seeking to create a conflict between representatives of the Orthodox and Catholic branches of Christianity,” he said. “Trying to involve the Vatican, which is showing restraint in the Belarusian events, the Americans are working to more actively involve Catholic priests in participating in anti-government protests.”
The Foreign Intelligence Head noted that the US seeks to motivate the Roman Catholic Church to openly criticize the Belarusian government and use religious events, including sermons, prayers, religious processions, to conduct “opposition political propaganda among believers.”
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southfront--2020-09-29--Caucasus Burning. Who Next?

Caucasus Burning. Who Next?

The escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh , the on-going protests in Belarus and deadlock in negotiation process on Eastern Ukraine : the European region is witnessing unprecedented deterioration of relations between Russia and the collective West .
This vector is rooted to the mid-2000s , when the Russian Federation embarked on the way out of neo-colonial dependence on the United States and the Euro-Atlantic elites .
Since that time , relations between the two parties have deteriorated consistently and steadily , passing through regular acute crises , like in 2008 , 2012 , 2014 .
After 2014 , the issues that served @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Western population emerged every year .
They were logical , and their goals were clear : the formation of the image of a dangerous external enemy in order to unite the Western population and distract it from ongoing sociopolitical crisis .
The shift in the relations between the two sides that we have seen since April 2020 differs significantly from previous crises .
A series of events led the parties to a sharp fierce confrontation , and even calls to unleash an armed conflict are heard from the leaders of several countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the SARS COV-2 epidemic , Russia was accused of using the coronavirus crisis to increase its information pressure .
These accusations were accompanied by an ongoing scandal about the fictitious intervention of the Russian Federation in the U.S. electoral campaign , which is gaining momentum as November approaches .
Russia was accused of organizing and supporting the BLM protests in the United States in order to destabilize the situation before the Presidential elections , despite the fact that Moscow does not receive any benefit from the ongoing unrest on the other side @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actors interested in destabilizing the situation in the country and reducing the popularity of the incumbent President .
( LINK ) The unfounded accusations have led to strict censorship of all significant media that represent alternative point of view different from the Western mainstream agenda .
Recently , Russia has been accused not only of interfering in the affairs of other countries , but also of “ wrong domestic policy ” .
Vladimir Putin ’ s campaign for amending the Constitution , which strengthened the country ’ s political construct and also legalized @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emerged in Russia over the years after the collapse of the USSR , received wide coverage in the Western media .
( LINK ) Months after the adoption of the amendments , the European Parliament does not lose hope to dissuade Russian decision makers and influence the internal sovereign policy of Kremlin .
The alleged “ illegality ” of the constitutional reform is spoken of in the resolution of the European Parliament , adopted on September 17 , which was regarding the situation in Belarus and around the poisoning of Alexei Navalny .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ its policy , there are active measures to support the non-systemic Russian opposition , which was clearly observed during the protests in Khabarovsk in July 2020 ( LINK , LINK ) , and reached its highest point in the awkward case of the Alexei Navalny poisoning .
The fake story about Navalny ’ s poisoning by the Kremlin , and mainly the international hysteria that followed , in which Navalny himself has already been forgotten , once again emphasize the negative image of Russia , and in particular of President Vladimir Putin , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russia .
( LINK , LINK ) The staged case of Navalny poisoning became one more pretext to renew a sanctions regime for violation of human rights , similar to the Magnitsky Act .
The hysteria itself is nothing more than another attempt to suspend the Nord Stream 2 project .
On the German side , the initial initiative to abandon the construction of the pipeline was expressed by the leader of the Green faction .
Calls for an end to construction were heard in the United States , and were supported by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well as Ukraine .
( LINK ) While Germany is paying a heavy price for its commitment to maintain the Nord Stream 2 project , Turkey is forced to dub up the supply of Russian S-400 air defense systems .
In addition to tawdry accusations , information warfare , strengthening of the sanctions regime , obstruction of any cooperation with Russia in the international arena , the Euro-Atlantic elites are moving to active actions that threaten not only Russian stability , but also security and sovereignty of its neighboring countries .
If their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of frozen conflicts along the Russian border , as it was the case of Eastern Ukraine or Southern Caucasus , then current trends indicate the transition of these conflicts to a hot phase .
An armed conflict near the eastern borders of the European Union or even in its own eastern territories is today a quite probable scenario , since it fully meets the interests of the globalist elites .
I .
The recent escalation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region is the symptom of the upcoming spread of armed conflicts around the Russian borders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Azerbaijan into war phase posed a direct threat to all regional actors , including Russia .
Russia found itself in a complicated situation .
If during the incidents that took place this summer , Moscow had the opportunity not to actively interfere in the conflict , today a real war begins , which leaves it no room to maneuver .
It may seem that Moscow remains Yerevan ’ s main ally , despite all the measures of the Pro-Western Pashinyan regime .
Still , in terms of Realpolitik , neutrality or even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beneficial for the Kremlin in conditions when Russia de facto does not have reliable allies , but has all-round political and territorial pressure backed by the collective West .
Armenia ’ s foreign policy in recent years has largely undermined its ties with Russia .
( LINK ) However , today , when a dangerous threat hangs over Armenia , there are no more marches against Russian “ occupying ” forces held in Yerevan , unlikely it was a case a few years ago , when the groups motivated by the external forces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Russian influence II .
Following the war in the Caucasus , an escalation of the situation in Belarus in the near future should be expected .
It may take the form of terrorist acts organized within the country .
The possibility of direct military action by the Baltic States or Poland should not be excluded .
Organization , financing and management of opposition movement in Belarus do not have the only goal to overthrow Alexander Lukashenko from the presidency , but a general destabilization of the situation in the country according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) In order to maintain alleged adherence to international law , it is most likely that there will be provocations on the western borders of Belarus , rather than direct intervention .
They can be organized along the border , or at border checkpoints .
A similar incident already took place on September 24 , when Belorussian Mi-24 helicopters intercepted balloons launched from the territory of Lithuania .
More large-scale provocations by NATO countries , the movement of troops within the borders of Belarus , or , for example , the opening of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
such provocations will be justified by the fact that the Western countries do not recognize Alexander Lukashenko as the legitimate president .
According to the current Belarusian agenda , the organization of terrorist attacks by the radicals is more likely .
( LINK ) This assumption is confirmed by the recent statement of the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service ( SVR ) , Sergey Naryshkin .
According to Naryshkin , the SVR was informed about the preparation of a “ resonant provocation ” in Belarus by the forces of local @ @ @ @ @ @ @ launched efforts to engage extremist elements to the protests .
“ According to available data , the extremist opposition members , who are currently hiding abroad , plan a resonant provocation , implying one of the authoritative clergy of the Roman Catholic Church to be arrested or even injured or killed .
This will significantly increase anti – government sentiment among Catholics and encourage them to participate more actively in street protests , ” the head of the SVR concluded .
In recent days , there have been more calls on social media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enforcement authorities .
Photos and personal information of members of the Belarusian OMON , who became a “ target ” for their compatriots , are shared with the public .
( LINK ) Violence among protesters is on the rise .
Aggression is already manifested not only towards the servicemen themselves , but also towards their families .
The case when a Belarusian doctor refused to provide assistance to the 3-year-old daughter of a soldier captured the headlines .
The cruelty that is now increasing among the Belarusian society was not acceptable even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these events , by creating another point of instability on the border with Russia , are trying to create a new lever of pressure on their geopolitical enemy .
Pro-Western Belarusian media , which are mostly located or funded from Poland or Lithuania , propagandizing cruelty and violence , are actively supported by the leading “ democratic ” European countries , and probably act on the instructions of the Euro-Atlantic elites .
( LINK ) The Western countries , who fully support the opposition sentiments in Belarus , silently agree with calls to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the law enforcement agencies of their own country .
The tacit support for the growing violence in Belarus seems especially surprising , given that the liberal , “ democratic ” Western countries had assumed the role of global defenders of press freedom , fighters against propaganda .
For the same reasons , in particular , an active campaign is being conducted against independent media like SouthFront , which has never called for violence during its entire existence , and only pursued a pacifist agenda .
( LINK ) The propaganda of cruelty and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to destabilize the situation in Belarus , and as a possible consequence to undermine the country ’ s industrial potential competitive to European one , fit the neo-liberal agenda , which the Euro-Atlantic elites see as the only one to have the right to exist .
III .
The ongoing protests in Belarus and the artificially whipped-up hysteria on Navalny poisoning have a direct impact on the negotiation process on the de-escalation in Eastern Ukraine .
On September 9 , there was another breakdown of the peace initiative .
Once again , Kiev @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peace initiative , exposing to the DPR knowingly unacceptable conditions for its implementation .
On September 10 , the Ukrainian military opened fire on the OSCE inspection who arrived at the separation line in the Donetsk People ’ s Republic .
Apparently , Kiev ’ s goal was to hide the new positions that they had erected near a strategically important facility – the Northern Donetsk-Donbass water conduit , allowing them to control water supplies for the entire region .
The negotiation process on Donbass has actually been stopped .
There has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the situation doesn ’ t appear to ameliorate until the US presidential election in November .
During this time , the Ukrainian side is asked to do everything possible to freeze the conflict in the Donetsk and Lugansk republics .
For this , various levers of influence are used .
The information agenda of the Ukrainian media focuses on the cultural and economic transformations of the “ Ukrainian Donbass ” .
This agenda is promoted through the TV channel “ Dom ” , specially created for broadcasting in the DPR and LPR @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disconnect the republics from joint networks and resources of water supply , electricity networks , gas pipelines .
In parallel , a powerful propaganda campaign is being conducted , accusing Russia and the republics of disrupting the negotiations .
Probably , under this pretext , Ukraine will demand the transfer of negotiations from Minsk to one of the EU platforms .
Ukrainian political elites are looking forward the candidate from Democrats Joseph Biden to win the presidential elections in the United States , who is already helping the Ukrainian regime in the fight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ promises to significantly increase the support .
Kiev , backed by the American Democrats , is aimed at disrupting the negotiation process , since this primarily prolongs the sanctions regime against Russia .
The United States is also interested in prolonging the current “ no war , no peace ” situation in Donbas .
Washington do not encourage Ukraine to launch an open offensive against the DPR / LPR , which may end with the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces , the loss of its territories and destabilization in the country .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ they suppress any attempts to finally end the war through the partial implementation of the Minsk agreements .
If the collective West is still preserving the semi-frozen conflict on the territory of Eastern Ukraine , in Nagorno-Karabakh , it has already been transferred to the stage of war , and probably , a similar fate awaits Belarus .
Highly likely , the escalation of an armed conflict in Ukraine will finish this chain reaction .
The Euro-Atlanticists have already carried out preparations for the conduct of the offensive actions near the borders of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the information campaigns and active political actions mentioned above , the military units of NATO and the United States are being redeployed closer to the Russian borders , which the world media do not find interesting enough to cover , unlike the poisoning of Navalny .
In June 2020 , the United States decided to withdraw part of the military contingent ( 12 thousand troops ) from Germany , some of which should be redeployed to Poland .
This maneuver served as an unambiguous message from Trump to Berlin .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than one addressee .
The redeployment of troops to Eastern Europe can not remain without a reaction from Russia .
( LINK ) The American presence in Poland is being strengthened on a regular basis , not only by the troops withdrawn from Germany , but also due to the transfer of the American Army units from the United States .
On August 15 , the Trump administration announced that it is deploying another 1,000 troops to Poland pursuant to a new defense cooperation agreement signed on the anniversary of the victory of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which reflects the US intention to locate a string of strategic offensive and defensive military infrastructure along Russia ’ s western border , from Norway in the far north to the Black Sea countries in the south .
( LINK ) In the Baltic States , reinforced battalion tactical groups of a multinational composition of up to 1,000 servicemen each were deployed .
The American initiative “ 3 to 30 ” is being implemented , which provides for the readiness to use 30 mechanized battalions , 30 air squadrons and 30 warships @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A new NATO Strategic Communications Center in Riga and a Joint Cyber Defense Center of Excellence in Tallinn have been established to wage a large-scale information war .
The main task of these structures is to disable the computer networks of critical facilities and infrastructure of a potential enemy – primarily Russia – by disrupting the functioning of government systems , financial institutions , enterprises , power plants , railway stations and airports .
The establishment and steady expansion of major military bases , logistics and operations hubs located along Russia ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in strategic long-range strike exercises and drills involving bombers and submarines operating alone or jointly with other NATO countries or non-NATO partners such as Ukraine and Georgia .
The strengthening of American forces in Eastern Europe comes against the backdrop of statements about the withdrawal of military contingent from the Middle East , as well as from Afghanistan .
Trump ’ s campaign aimed at ending America ’ s participation in “ endless wars ” in different parts of the world , apparently does not exclude the outbreak of a new conflict , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Eastern Europe .
All of the issues mentioned above emerged during less than six months .
Such dynamics of deterioration in relations between the collective West and Russia have not been observed over the past 30 years , since the end of the Cold War .
This only suggests that the military-political leadership , primarily the United States and NATO elites , is deliberately undertaking activities that can be characterized as preparations for unleashing an offensive war .
• Indeed , there are outreach activities aimed at creating and consolidating the image of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are economic measures aimed at weakening the enemy ; consistent political measures are also being taken to deprive the enemy of allies and destabilize his political system .
• There are ideological measures aimed at vulgarizing the enemy ’ s way of life and way of thinking .
This policy can be explained by the challenges that the Euro-Atlantic bureaucracy and globalist elites face today .
They are worried about possible disintegration processes in Europe and are forced to confront the threat of Donald Trump ’ s re-election .
Their position is complicated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their inability to offer the world , or at least “ the golden billion ” , a model of socioeconomic development that could help in overcoming the global financial and economic crisis .
The hysteria they initiated around SARS-COV 2 brought them tactically positive results in the form of additional profits of more than 200 billion for big pharma , additional profits for high-tech corporations .
The crisis atomized society , thereby creating the most favorable conditions for strengthening the digital dictatorship .
It created persistent phobias among a significant part of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ share the liberal values and values of the post-liberal world .
These phobias fit perfectly into the model of a unique isolated personality , in other words into that post-human format described by the concept of transhumanism .
Even so , the globalist elites failed to fully achieve their goals .
In particular , they did not gain dominant influence in the national systems of the world ’ s leading States and did not completely suppress the will for real , not virtual , freedom among the population of Western countries .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the state where the most effective scenario for achieving their goals is the initiation of a regional armed conflict .
For this purpose , the necessary image of a terrible external enemy has already been formed – a conservative Russia oriented towards traditional family and collective values .
At the same time , it is important to prevent the transition of a regional conflict to a global one .
That ’ s why unleashing a war with Russia seems unlikely .
Ideal “ sacrificial lambs ” , those who can be spared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are the countries of Eastern Europe , the Baltic States and the Ukrainian regime that joined them .
The global leading players assigned the role of cannon fodder to these countries .
Judging by the foreign policy of these same countries , they strive for it by themselves .
These countries have already been repeatedly playing the sacrificial role earlier in history and always with an obvious result : the loss of a large part of the population , the economy destruction , up to the loss of independence .
For example , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and second partitions of Poland .
The main alarmists in the European Union are the Baltic countries , fearing that Russia has plans to seize their territories , as it allegedly did in the East of Ukraine , despite the fact that it is Lithuania , Latvia and Estonia who have territorial claims to Russia , and not vice versa .
Today they have no choice but to tearfully ask the leading European states and NATO bureaucracy for protection , because it is precisely for ephemeral security from the nonexistent Russian threat , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them , that the Baltic countries have traded the development of their own economies and a stable position on the international arena .
The situation in the Baltic States is aggravated by silence from the northern NATO or EU member states : Finland , Sweden and Norway .
The Scandinavian countries are absolutely not interested in fueling conflict with Russia .
They have no direct territorial claims against Russia , except the Karelian issue between Finland and Russia , which , however , is not capable to lead to an open confrontation .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the main support of the United States in the region , to participate in the NATO Cold Response exercise , which was to be held in March 2020 in the northern regions of the country , was indicative .
The national elites of the Northern Dimension countries are guided by the principle “ near is my shirt , but nearer is my skin , ” and refrain from aggressive foreign policy .
Even if one day the Euro-Atlanticists manage to convince them , the probability that the population of these countries will support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conflict is very low .
The neutrality of NATO ’ s northern flank is one of the main reasons for the disastrous situation in the Baltic countries , where NATO is forced to rapidly build up its military power .
Taking into account the escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh and all the geo-strategic parameters of the European region , today only 2 scenarios are probable , which are included in the agenda promoted by the Euro-Atlantic elites : • A scenario that might be called “ New Barbarossa ” : incitement of protest sentiments in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of armed confrontation , followed by the introduction of NATO troops into the western territories of the country and inevitable military clashes with national troops .
At the same time , the escalation of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine is intended to “ divert ” part of the Russian troops that will be intended to support national government .
• Domestic political destabilization of Russia through the tools of color revolutions .
The collapse of the Russian political system , leading to a sharp increase in separation sentiments among the peoples that inhabit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ civil conflicts within the country will lead to a call from pro-Western local leaders for help , right up to the introduction of military forces .
Limited intervention will be accompanied by political support in the international arena and financial support for those regions of the country whose local elites declare their aspirations for sovereignty .
Such a development of events will lead to the split of the Russian Federation into 7-9 new entities .
Both the first and second scenarios are in the interests of the Euro-Atlantic elites .
The first will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own population from the socioeconomic problems caused by the global economic crisis , to get a new flow of qualified labor from Belarus and Ukraine , as well as get the industrial potential of Belarus and transform Ukraine into an agrarian “ growth ” of the European Union , etc .
According to the second scenario , the collective West has a chance of a de facto territorial seizure of vast Eurasian spaces .
No matter what scenario will be realized , the stabilization of situation in the European region does not seem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probable , the approaching 2021 will bring much more “ unpleasant surprises ” than unstable 2020 did .
MORE ON THE TOPIC : • The Old Dependables : Russian Weapons In 21st Century Regional Conflicts

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The escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh, the on-going protests in Belarus and deadlock in negotiation process on Eastern Ukraine: the European region is witnessing unprecedented deterioration of relations between Russia and the collective West. This vector is rooted to the mid-2000s, when the Russian Federation embarked on the way out of neo-colonial dependence on the United States and the Euro-Atlantic elites. Since that time, relations between the two parties have deteriorated consistently and steadily, passing through regular acute crises, like in 2008, 2012, 2014.
After 2014, the issues that served to demonize the image of Russia among the Western population emerged every year. They were logical, and their goals were clear: the formation of the image of a dangerous external enemy in order to unite the Western population and distract it from ongoing sociopolitical crisis.
The shift in the relations between the two sides that we have seen since April 2020 differs significantly from previous crises. A series of events led the parties to a sharp fierce confrontation, and even calls to unleash an armed conflict are heard from the leaders of several countries.
In April, against the background of the SARS COV-2 epidemic, Russia was accused of using the coronavirus crisis to increase its information pressure. These accusations were accompanied by an ongoing scandal about the fictitious intervention of the Russian Federation in the U.S. electoral campaign, which is gaining momentum as November approaches. Russia was accused of organizing and supporting the BLM protests in the United States in order to destabilize the situation before the Presidential elections, despite the fact that Moscow does not receive any benefit from the ongoing unrest on the other side of the Atlantic, unlike local American actors interested in destabilizing the situation in the country and reducing the popularity of the incumbent President. (LINK)
The unfounded accusations have led to strict censorship of all significant media that represent alternative point of view different from the Western mainstream agenda.
Recently, Russia has been accused not only of interfering in the affairs of other countries, but also of “wrong domestic policy”.
Vladimir Putin’s campaign for amending the Constitution, which strengthened the country’s political construct and also legalized the alternative path of development that has emerged in Russia over the years after the collapse of the USSR, received wide coverage in the Western media. (LINK)
Months after the adoption of the amendments, the European Parliament does not lose hope to dissuade Russian decision makers and influence the internal sovereign policy of Kremlin. The alleged “illegality” of the constitutional reform is spoken of in the resolution of the European Parliament, adopted on September 17, which was regarding the situation in Belarus and around the poisoning of Alexei Navalny.
Against the background of all current accusations against Moscow, European parliamentarians call on the EU authorities “to demand from Russia to cancel or revise all laws that are not compatible with international standards,” the document says.
Despite the appeals to Kremlin to change its policy, there are active measures to support the non-systemic Russian opposition, which was clearly observed during the protests in Khabarovsk in July 2020 (LINK, LINK), and reached its highest point in the awkward case of the Alexei Navalny poisoning.
The fake story about Navalny’s poisoning by the Kremlin, and mainly the international hysteria that followed, in which Navalny himself has already been forgotten, once again emphasize the negative image of Russia, and in particular of President Vladimir Putin, both on the international arena and within Russia. (LINK, LINK)
The staged case of Navalny poisoning became one more pretext to renew a sanctions regime for violation of human rights, similar to the Magnitsky Act. The hysteria itself is nothing more than another attempt to suspend the Nord Stream 2 project. On the German side, the initial initiative to abandon the construction of the pipeline was expressed by the leader of the Green faction. Calls for an end to construction were heard in the United States, and were supported by a number of Western countries, as well as Ukraine. (LINK)
While Germany is paying a heavy price for its commitment to maintain the Nord Stream 2 project, Turkey is forced to dub up the supply of Russian S-400 air defense systems.
In addition to tawdry accusations, information warfare, strengthening of the sanctions regime, obstruction of any cooperation with Russia in the international arena, the Euro-Atlantic elites are moving to active actions that threaten not only Russian stability, but also security and sovereignty of its neighboring countries.
If their previous goal seemed to be the maintaining of frozen conflicts along the Russian border, as it was the case of Eastern Ukraine or Southern Caucasus, then current trends indicate the transition of these conflicts to a hot phase. An armed conflict near the eastern borders of the European Union or even in its own eastern territories is today a quite probable scenario, since it fully meets the interests of the globalist elites.
I. The recent escalation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region is the symptom of the upcoming spread of armed conflicts around the Russian borders.
The transition of confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan into war phase posed a direct threat to all regional actors, including Russia.
On September 29, commenting on the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on Russia to shelve the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia independence and withdraw its troops from their territory.
Russia found itself in a complicated situation. If during the incidents that took place this summer, Moscow had the opportunity not to actively interfere in the conflict, today a real war begins, which leaves it no room to maneuver. It may seem that Moscow remains Yerevan’s main ally, despite all the measures of the Pro-Western Pashinyan regime. Still, in terms of Realpolitik, neutrality or even tacit support for Baku may be more beneficial for the Kremlin in conditions when Russia de facto does not have reliable allies, but has all-round political and territorial pressure backed by the collective West.
Armenia’s foreign policy in recent years has largely undermined its ties with Russia. (LINK) However, today, when a dangerous threat hangs over Armenia, there are no more marches against Russian “occupying” forces held in Yerevan, unlikely it was a case a few years ago, when the groups motivated by the external forces actively supported the country’s independence from Russian influence.
“I draw the attention of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing states and the entire international community to the seriousness of the situation. The beginning of a full-scale war in the South Caucasus, which is actually taking place, may have the most unpredictable consequences. It can go beyond the region and reach a much larger scale, threatening international security and stability.” – claimed Armenian Prime-Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
II. Following the war in the Caucasus, an escalation of the situation in Belarus in the near future should be expected.
It may take the form of terrorist acts organized within the country. The possibility of direct military action by the Baltic States or Poland should not be excluded. Organization, financing and management of opposition movement in Belarus do not have the only goal to overthrow Alexander Lukashenko from the presidency, but a general destabilization of the situation in the country according to the Eastern Ukrainian scenario. (LINK)
In order to maintain alleged adherence to international law, it is most likely that there will be provocations on the western borders of Belarus, rather than direct intervention. They can be organized along the border, or at border checkpoints. A similar incident already took place on September 24, when Belorussian Mi-24 helicopters intercepted balloons launched from the territory of Lithuania. More large-scale provocations by NATO countries, the movement of troops within the borders of Belarus, or, for example, the opening of fire on the border checkpoints are possible. such provocations will be justified by the fact that the Western countries do not recognize Alexander Lukashenko as the legitimate president.
According to the current Belarusian agenda, the organization of terrorist attacks by the radicals is more likely. (LINK) This assumption is confirmed by the recent statement of the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergey Naryshkin.
“So-called “fighters for a new Belarus” are trained in Poland, Georgia, Ukraine and the Baltic States with the participation of instructors from the CIA, the Pentagon, NGOs affiliated with the American State Department”
According to Naryshkin, the SVR was informed about the preparation of a “resonant provocation” in Belarus by the forces of local radical nationalists. The State Department has launched efforts to engage extremist elements to the protests.
“According to available data, the extremist opposition members, who are currently hiding abroad, plan a resonant provocation, implying one of the authoritative clergy of the Roman Catholic Church to be arrested or even injured or killed. This will significantly increase anti – government sentiment among Catholics and encourage them to participate more actively in street protests,” the head of the SVR concluded.
In recent days, there have been more calls on social media for protesters to use force against law enforcement authorities. Photos and personal information of members of the Belarusian OMON, who became a “target” for their compatriots, are shared with the public. (LINK)
Violence among protesters is on the rise. Aggression is already manifested not only towards the servicemen themselves, but also towards their families. The case when a Belarusian doctor refused to provide assistance to the 3-year-old daughter of a soldier captured the headlines. The cruelty that is now increasing among the Belarusian society was not acceptable even in wartime.
The real directors of these events, by creating another point of instability on the border with Russia, are trying to create a new lever of pressure on their geopolitical enemy.
Pro-Western Belarusian media, which are mostly located or funded from Poland or Lithuania, propagandizing cruelty and violence, are actively supported by the leading “democratic” European countries, and probably act on the instructions of the Euro-Atlantic elites. (LINK)
The Western countries, who fully support the opposition sentiments in Belarus, silently agree with calls to physically violence against Belarusian citizens serving in the law enforcement agencies of their own country. The tacit support for the growing violence in Belarus seems especially surprising, given that the liberal, “democratic” Western countries had assumed the role of global defenders of press freedom, fighters against propaganda. For the same reasons, in particular, an active campaign is being conducted against independent media like SouthFront, which has never called for violence during its entire existence, and only pursued a pacifist agenda. (LINK)
The propaganda of cruelty and calls for violence, which are intended to destabilize the situation in Belarus, and as a possible consequence to undermine the country’s industrial potential competitive to European one, fit the neo-liberal agenda, which the Euro-Atlantic elites see as the only one to have the right to exist.
III. The ongoing protests in Belarus and the artificially whipped-up hysteria on Navalny poisoning have a direct impact on the negotiation process on the de-escalation in Eastern Ukraine.
On September 9, there was another breakdown of the peace initiative. Once again, Kiev quite deliberately put an end to the peace initiative, exposing to the DPR knowingly unacceptable conditions for its implementation. On September 10, the Ukrainian military opened fire on the OSCE inspection who arrived at the separation line in the Donetsk People’s Republic. Apparently, Kiev’s goal was to hide the new positions that they had erected near a strategically important facility – the Northern Donetsk-Donbass water conduit, allowing them to control water supplies for the entire region.
The negotiation process on Donbass has actually been stopped. There has been no progress for several months now, and the situation doesn’t appear to ameliorate until the US presidential election in November.
During this time, the Ukrainian side is asked to do everything possible to freeze the conflict in the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. For this, various levers of influence are used. The information agenda of the Ukrainian media focuses on the cultural and economic transformations of the “Ukrainian Donbass”. This agenda is promoted through the TV channel “Dom”, specially created for broadcasting in the DPR and LPR. Kiev always has the ability to disconnect the republics from joint networks and resources of water supply, electricity networks, gas pipelines.
In parallel, a powerful propaganda campaign is being conducted, accusing Russia and the republics of disrupting the negotiations. Probably, under this pretext, Ukraine will demand the transfer of negotiations from Minsk to one of the EU platforms.
Ukrainian political elites are looking forward the candidate from Democrats Joseph Biden to win the presidential elections in the United States, who is already helping the Ukrainian regime in the fight against Russia in various ways, and promises to significantly increase the support.
Kiev, backed by the American Democrats, is aimed at disrupting the negotiation process, since this primarily prolongs the sanctions regime against Russia.
The United States is also interested in prolonging the current “no war, no peace” situation in Donbas. Washington do not encourage Ukraine to launch an open offensive against the DPR / LPR, which may end with the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the loss of its territories and destabilization in the country. But, at the same time, they suppress any attempts to finally end the war through the partial implementation of the Minsk agreements.
If the collective West is still preserving the semi-frozen conflict on the territory of Eastern Ukraine, in Nagorno-Karabakh, it has already been transferred to the stage of war, and probably, a similar fate awaits Belarus. Highly likely, the escalation of an armed conflict in Ukraine will finish this chain reaction.
The Euro-Atlanticists have already carried out preparations for the conduct of the offensive actions near the borders of Russia. Against the background of all of the information campaigns and active political actions mentioned above, the military units of NATO and the United States are being redeployed closer to the Russian borders, which the world media do not find interesting enough to cover, unlike the poisoning of Navalny.
In June 2020, the United States decided to withdraw part of the military contingent (12 thousand troops) from Germany, some of which should be redeployed to Poland. This maneuver served as an unambiguous message from Trump to Berlin. However, such a “message” has more than one addressee. The redeployment of troops to Eastern Europe cannot remain without a reaction from Russia. (LINK)
The American presence in Poland is being strengthened on a regular basis, not only by the troops withdrawn from Germany, but also due to the transfer of the American Army units from the United States.
On August 15, the Trump administration announced that it is deploying another 1,000 troops to Poland pursuant to a new defense cooperation agreement signed on the anniversary of the victory of Poland in the Polish-Soviet war of 1920, which reflects the US intention to locate a string of strategic offensive and defensive military infrastructure along Russia’s western border, from Norway in the far north to the Black Sea countries in the south. (LINK)
In the Baltic States, reinforced battalion tactical groups of a multinational composition of up to 1,000 servicemen each were deployed. The American initiative “3 to 30” is being implemented, which provides for the readiness to use 30 mechanized battalions, 30 air squadrons and 30 warships of NATO countries within 30 days.
A new NATO Strategic Communications Center in Riga and a Joint Cyber Defense Center of Excellence in Tallinn have been established to wage a large-scale information war. The main task of these structures is to disable the computer networks of critical facilities and infrastructure of a potential enemy – primarily Russia – by disrupting the functioning of government systems, financial institutions, enterprises, power plants, railway stations and airports.
The establishment and steady expansion of major military bases, logistics and operations hubs located along Russia’s western border is accompanied by an increase in strategic long-range strike exercises and drills involving bombers and submarines operating alone or jointly with other NATO countries or non-NATO partners such as Ukraine and Georgia.
The strengthening of American forces in Eastern Europe comes against the backdrop of statements about the withdrawal of military contingent from the Middle East, as well as from Afghanistan. Trump’s campaign aimed at ending America’s participation in “endless wars” in different parts of the world, apparently does not exclude the outbreak of a new conflict, which is likely to take place in Eastern Europe.
All of the issues mentioned above emerged during less than six months. Such dynamics of deterioration in relations between the collective West and Russia have not been observed over the past 30 years, since the end of the Cold War. This only suggests that the military-political leadership, primarily the United States and NATO elites, is deliberately undertaking activities that can be characterized as preparations for unleashing an offensive war.
Indeed, there are outreach activities aimed at creating and consolidating the image of a dangerous external enemy.
There are economic measures aimed at weakening the enemy; consistent political measures are also being taken to deprive the enemy of allies and destabilize his political system.
There are ideological measures aimed at vulgarizing the enemy’s way of life and way of thinking.
This policy can be explained by the challenges that the Euro-Atlantic bureaucracy and globalist elites face today.
They are worried about possible disintegration processes in Europe and are forced to confront the threat of Donald Trump’s re-election. Their position is complicated by the fact that they have proven their inability to offer the world, or at least “the golden billion”, a model of socioeconomic development that could help in overcoming the global financial and economic crisis.
The hysteria they initiated around SARS-COV 2 brought them tactically positive results in the form of additional profits of more than 200 billion for big pharma, additional profits for high-tech corporations. The crisis atomized society, thereby creating the most favorable conditions for strengthening the digital dictatorship. It created persistent phobias among a significant part of the Western population, primarily among those who share the liberal values and values of the post-liberal world. These phobias fit perfectly into the model of a unique isolated personality, in other words into that post-human format described by the concept of transhumanism.
Even so, the globalist elites failed to fully achieve their goals. In particular, they did not gain dominant influence in the national systems of the world’s leading States and did not completely suppress the will for real, not virtual, freedom among the population of Western countries.
The situation in the world system has returned to the state where the most effective scenario for achieving their goals is the initiation of a regional armed conflict.
For this purpose, the necessary image of a terrible external enemy has already been formed – a conservative Russia oriented towards traditional family and collective values.
At the same time, it is important to prevent the transition of a regional conflict to a global one. That’s why unleashing a war with Russia seems unlikely. Ideal “sacrificial lambs”, those who can be spared to be burned in the coming conflict are the countries of Eastern Europe, the Baltic States and the Ukrainian regime that joined them. The global leading players assigned the role of cannon fodder to these countries. Judging by the foreign policy of these same countries, they strive for it by themselves.
These countries have already been repeatedly playing the sacrificial role earlier in history and always with an obvious result: the loss of a large part of the population, the economy destruction, up to the loss of independence. For example, it is enough to recall the first and second partitions of Poland.
The main alarmists in the European Union are the Baltic countries, fearing that Russia has plans to seize their territories, as it allegedly did in the East of Ukraine, despite the fact that it is Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia who have territorial claims to Russia, and not vice versa.
Today they have no choice but to tearfully ask the leading European states and NATO bureaucracy for protection, because it is precisely for ephemeral security from the nonexistent Russian threat, which NATO is ultimately unable to provide them, that the Baltic countries have traded the development of their own economies and a stable position on the international arena.
The situation in the Baltic States is aggravated by silence from the northern NATO or EU member states: Finland, Sweden and Norway.
The Scandinavian countries are absolutely not interested in fueling conflict with Russia. They have no direct territorial claims against Russia, except the Karelian issue between Finland and Russia, which, however, is not capable to lead to an open confrontation.
The refusal of Norway, which is the main support of the United States in the region, to participate in the NATO Cold Response exercise, which was to be held in March 2020 in the northern regions of the country, was indicative.
The national elites of the Northern Dimension countries are guided by the principle “near is my shirt, but nearer is my skin,” and refrain from aggressive foreign policy. Even if one day the Euro-Atlanticists manage to convince them, the probability that the population of these countries will support the decision to participate in a military conflict is very low.
The neutrality of NATO’s northern flank is one of the main reasons for the disastrous situation in the Baltic countries, where NATO is forced to rapidly build up its military power.
Taking into account the escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh and all the geo-strategic parameters of the European region, today only 2 scenarios are probable, which are included in the agenda promoted by the Euro-Atlantic elites:
A scenario that might be called “New Barbarossa”: incitement of protest sentiments in Belarus and their transition to the stage of armed confrontation, followed by the introduction of NATO troops into the western territories of the country and inevitable military clashes with national troops. At the same time, the escalation of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine is intended to “divert” part of the Russian troops that will be intended to support national government. Domestic political destabilization of Russia through the tools of color revolutions. The collapse of the Russian political system, leading to a sharp increase in separation sentiments among the peoples that inhabit the Russian Federation. The outbreak of civil conflicts within the country will lead to a call from pro-Western local leaders for help, right up to the introduction of military forces. Limited intervention will be accompanied by political support in the international arena and financial support for those regions of the country whose local elites declare their aspirations for sovereignty. Such a development of events will lead to the split of the Russian Federation into 7-9 new entities.
Both the first and second scenarios are in the interests of the Euro-Atlantic elites. The first will allow the collective West to distract its own population from the socioeconomic problems caused by the global economic crisis, to get a new flow of qualified labor from Belarus and Ukraine, as well as get the industrial potential of Belarus and transform Ukraine into an agrarian “growth” of the European Union, etc. According to the second scenario, the collective West has a chance of a de facto territorial seizure of vast Eurasian spaces.
No matter what scenario will be realized, the stabilization of situation in the European region does not seem possible in the near future. Most probable, the approaching 2021 will bring much more “unpleasant surprises” than unstable 2020 did.
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