hotair--2020-11-04--Ted Wheeler won re-election in Portland last night, defeating communist Sarah Iannarone

One of the worst mayors in the country won re-election last night and believe it or not that ’ s a good thing .
Why ?
Because his challenger Sarah Iannarone is , well… Last night she posted this fan art of herself as an Antifa superhero : It appears that even the voters in Portland thought that was a bit much : With more than 90 % of the votes counted , Wheeler led Iannarone 47 % to 41 % as of 11 p.m. Tuesday .
Write-in candidates , which include community activist Teressa Raiford , had pulled in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statement via Zoom around 11:25 p.m. , thanking voters for their support and said he understood many people are frustrated over the direction of the city amid the pandemic and protests .
“ We ’ re going to need to come together as never before to address short-term issues and the long-term changes and investments needed to rebuild our economy , rebuild confidence in law enforcement and restore hope for our future , ” he said… Last month , a new coalition with ties to groups including the Portland Business Alliance , labor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The group , United for Portland , raised nearly half a million dollars as of Monday and launched ads and mailers attacking Iannarone in an effort to spur voters to reelect the incumbent .
Wheeler said last night that he hadn ’ t spoken with Iannarone and she put out a statement saying she was going to wait for more votes to be counted .
As of now , I don ’ t see anything on her social media saying she has conceded .
Meanwhile , her favorite group was out in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ homeowner asked the mob to be peaceful , pointing to his Joe Biden sign .
The mob ’ s response : “ You ask for a peaceful protest .
It ’ s white supremacy !
Asking for people to be peaceful is white supremacy !
” This clip also includes a confrontation with someone who was filming the freak show .
They concluded the night by burning a flag : So Portland still has a really terrible mayor but it could have been much worse .
Sarah Iannarone would have given the mob @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and at least Wheeler won ’ t do that .

One of the worst mayors in the country won re-election last night and believe it or not that’s a good thing. Why? Because his challenger Sarah Iannarone is, well…
"I am a communist" This is the campaign manager for Sarah Iannarone, who is up for election to become Portland's next mayor. She is currently polling double digits ahead of @tedwheeler. #antifa https://t.co/hF8U3ua5H1 pic.twitter.com/RenLroZMQH — Andy Ngô (@MrAndyNgo) October 6, 2020
Last night she posted this fan art of herself as an Antifa superhero:
Amazing fan art just came in from @Oeming – please turn in your ballots! #VoteSarah #PlanForProgress we got this! pic.twitter.com/HNkDKNk1Bx — Our Portland (@ourportland) November 4, 2020
It appears that even the voters in Portland thought that was a bit much:
With more than 90% of the votes counted, Wheeler led Iannarone 47% to 41% as of 11 p.m. Tuesday. Write-in candidates, which include community activist Teressa Raiford, had pulled in 13%… Wheeler gave a brief statement via Zoom around 11:25 p.m., thanking voters for their support and said he understood many people are frustrated over the direction of the city amid the pandemic and protests. “We’re going to need to come together as never before to address short-term issues and the long-term changes and investments needed to rebuild our economy, rebuild confidence in law enforcement and restore hope for our future,” he said… Last month, a new coalition with ties to groups including the Portland Business Alliance, labor unions and conservationists rallied around Wheeler. The group, United for Portland, raised nearly half a million dollars as of Monday and launched ads and mailers attacking Iannarone in an effort to spur voters to reelect the incumbent.
Wheeler said last night that he hadn’t spoken with Iannarone and she put out a statement saying she was going to wait for more votes to be counted. As of now, I don’t see anything on her social media saying she has conceded.
Meanwhile, her favorite group was out in the streets being themselves last night:
This might be the only place in the city where people aren’t focused/talking about the election. pic.twitter.com/RSAQYl89J2 — Sergio Olmos (@MrOlmos) November 4, 2020
One homeowner asked the mob to be peaceful, pointing to his Joe Biden sign. The mob’s response: “You ask for a peaceful protest. It’s white supremacy! Asking for people to be peaceful is white supremacy!” This clip also includes a confrontation with someone who was filming the freak show.
"Asking for people to be peaceful is white supremacy" On election night in Portland, hundreds of protesters shut down the streets of SE Portland. They confronted Portlanders at their homes, including a family with a "Biden Harris" sign. #BLM #antifa https://t.co/DIVMm71ifJ pic.twitter.com/ahmJrGBQtL — Andy Ngô (@MrAndyNgo) November 4, 2020
They concluded the night by burning a flag:
Portland protesters have moved across the bridge in front of the Justice Center and US Courthouse, where an American Flag is then lit on Fire. #Portland #portlandprotest #PDXprotests #protest #antifa #BLM pic.twitter.com/QXcxBEDzIH — Independent Media PDX (@NDpendentPDX) November 4, 2020
So Portland still has a really terrible mayor but it could have been much worse. Sarah Iannarone would have given the mob carte blanche to riot and destroy property and at least Wheeler won’t do that.


hotair--2020-11-04--Last night's big winners: Never Trump?

Last night's big winners: Never Trump?

I ’ m teasing you a little with that headline .
Obviously it wasn ’ t a good night for George-Conway-style Never Trumpers who wanted nothing less than a landslide repudiation of the president .
Four hundred Biden electoral votes , Republicans crushed downballot , Trump collapsing into heaving sobs during his concession speech and calling Biden “ daddy.
” Not a good night for those people .
But for less hardcore Never Trumpers who wanted the president beaten but also wanted a check on the Biden administration so that AOC didn ’ t end up setting policy , things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden win is still in doubt , as is a Republican majority in the Senate , but if you were betting right now you ’ d bet on both .
We ’ re looking at a moderate Democratic administration having to compromise with a narrowed Democratic House majority and a Republican Senate majority in which Joe Manchin , Kyrsten Sinema , Susan Collins , and Lisa Murkowski get to decide what becomes law and what doesn ’ t .
We may even get a Republican senator from Michigan before all ’ s said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be well positioned to build on their margins in 2022 , as the party usually fares well in midterms when a Democrat is in charge .
As Ed noted earlier , it ’ s already dawning on liberals that their best-case scenario for the next four years is a Biden administration that doesn ’ t get much of anything done legislatively .
Bad for Dems , but not bad for Never Trumpers !
Eric Levitz : All of which is to say : If I had to guess the ultimate outcome of this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re in for a Democratic White House and a Republican Senate .
Which would mean that , while Joe Biden would get to be president , he probably wouldn ’ t get to pass major laws , appoint non-conservative judges , or staff his Cabinet without giving Mitch McConnell some input into his hiring choices .
What ’ s more , after two years of disappointing his supporters by implementing roughly none of his big campaign promises — and , quite possibly , failing to provide an ailing economy with any significant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party further routed in 2022 , as Republicans would enjoy the turnout advantage that almost always accrues to the president ’ s opposition in midterms .
Combined with the Senate ’ s massive overrepresentation of Red America , this would quite plausibly prevent the Democratic Party from securing unified control of the federal government — and thus the ability to make any progress on universal health care , or a green-energy transition , or immigration reform , or voting rights , or child care , or any other major policy priority — for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s still likely to prevail in the 2020 election .
But if he does , he ’ s ( almost certainly ) going to win a lot less than he ’ d bargained for .
Don ’ t threaten me with a good time , Eric .
Stephen “ redsteeze ” Miller puts a happier spin on the Dems ’ predicament : Filibuster remains .
No Green New Deal .
No court packing .
No statehood for Washington DC and Puerto Rico and with them four new Senate seats .
No massive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The activist left has been neutered for now .
Thanks to a newly tilted Supreme Court , Biden ’ s attempts to executive-order his way around Congress have been severely crippled as well .
Biden will occupy the Oval Office while the national media gives Kamala Harris the presidential treatment .
This should suit the political right just fine .
A Mitch McConnell-led Senate will also force a President Biden to moderate his Supreme Court choices… The Democratic party may well secure the White House , but it will by no means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ done so with only a handful of electoral votes .
It makes you wonder how President Trump would have fared in a year without a global pandemic , a year when he ’ d perhaps reined in his most Trumpian personality traits .
But what the election revealed is the path forward for the GOP : a mix of economic populism and nationalism , but this time without the tweets ( if Trump decides against running in 2024 , that is ) .
The 2020 election was by no means a sweeping rebuke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the media and pollsters has been telling us it would be , nor was it the crashing blue wave the Democrats wanted .
The question is whether we get total gridlock , with McConnell reprising his 2009 strategy of blocking everything in hopes of making Biden a one-term president , or if the centrist cluster of Manchin et al .
gets some say in what comes to the Senate floor .
McConnell and Biden have known each other for decades from their time together in the chamber ; there may be a little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than there was between Cocaine Mitch and Obama .
Democrats aren ’ t getting an assault-weapons ban or anything like that , but maybe the two sides will be able to get creative on economics .
Most of the GOP caucus will be back in pretend-deficit-hawk mode , but not everyone — especially now that Trump ’ s economic populism has new potency after last night ’ s epic surge at the polls .
If , say , Marco Rubio and Mike Lee want to expand the child tax credit , is there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ includes 2024 hopefuls that ’ s willing to do that ?
Before last night , no .
After last night… That ’ s sort of true about wokesters .
They wanted total Democratic control of government to advance their agenda , but failing that they would have taken another term of Trump as a foil which could use to build out their ranks .
What do they have now ?
Sleepy Joe in charge — probably — and a gridlocked Congress , with Republicans likely to make gains in 2022 .
By the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s post-victory press conference today : Note the timeline — he wants it done by the end of the year .
That ’ s good policy inasmuch as the money is urgently needed as the economy slows down but it ’ s also good politics in that he ’ s staring at one and possibly two Senate runoffs in Georgia in January .
If there ’ s no stimulus by then , David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler would be facing a Democratic onslaught from Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock running on a platform @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than Republicans would prefer .
That ’ d be a hard message to counter at a moment of rising economic pain and COVID-related despair .
McConnell ’ s going to try to take it off the table with a deal before then .
We ’ ll see if Pelosi obliges him .
As for Never Trump , although many of us can live satisfactorily with a Biden/McConnell government , I can tell you that this sentiment is shared widely today within the ranks , and not just among hardcore NTers .
The reason @ @ @ @ @ @ @ night despite month after month of blogging polls showing a Biden blowout was because I just couldn ’ t believe that this country , at this stage of its decline , would actually punish Trump for his civic offenses .
I asked myself this : Might the people of America , having absorbed that spectacle in Lafayette Park in June , actually turn around and say , “ I want to give this guy four more years in power and this time I want him to be totally unaccountable to voters “ ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ they would absolutely do that .
I don ’ t know if that ’ s who we always were but it ’ s who we are now .
There ’ s a nonzero chance that my prediction , Trump 279-259 , will end up within a single electoral vote of coming true .
Stay tuned .

I’m teasing you a little with that headline. Obviously it wasn’t a good night for George-Conway-style Never Trumpers who wanted nothing less than a landslide repudiation of the president. Four hundred Biden electoral votes, Republicans crushed downballot, Trump collapsing into heaving sobs during his concession speech and calling Biden “daddy.”
Not a good night for those people.
But for less hardcore Never Trumpers who wanted the president beaten but also wanted a check on the Biden administration so that AOC didn’t end up setting policy, things are shaping up pretty nicely. A Biden win is still in doubt, as is a Republican majority in the Senate, but if you were betting right now you’d bet on both. We’re looking at a moderate Democratic administration having to compromise with a narrowed Democratic House majority and a Republican Senate majority in which Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski get to decide what becomes law and what doesn’t.
We may even get a Republican senator from Michigan before all’s said and done. And the GOP would be well positioned to build on their margins in 2022, as the party usually fares well in midterms when a Democrat is in charge.
As Ed noted earlier, it’s already dawning on liberals that their best-case scenario for the next four years is a Biden administration that doesn’t get much of anything done legislatively. Bad for Dems, but not bad for Never Trumpers! Eric Levitz:
All of which is to say: If I had to guess the ultimate outcome of this election, I’d say we’re in for a Democratic White House and a Republican Senate. Which would mean that, while Joe Biden would get to be president, he probably wouldn’t get to pass major laws, appoint non-conservative judges, or staff his Cabinet without giving Mitch McConnell some input into his hiring choices. What’s more, after two years of disappointing his supporters by implementing roughly none of his big campaign promises — and, quite possibly, failing to provide an ailing economy with any significant stimulus — Biden would likely see his party further routed in 2022, as Republicans would enjoy the turnout advantage that almost always accrues to the president’s opposition in midterms. Combined with the Senate’s massive overrepresentation of Red America, this would quite plausibly prevent the Democratic Party from securing unified control of the federal government — and thus the ability to make any progress on universal health care, or a green-energy transition, or immigration reform, or voting rights, or child care, or any other major policy priority — for the rest of this decade. Biden’s still likely to prevail in the 2020 election. But if he does, he’s (almost certainly) going to win a lot less than he’d bargained for.
Don’t threaten me with a good time, Eric. Stephen “redsteeze” Miller puts a happier spin on the Dems’ predicament:
Filibuster remains. No Green New Deal. No court packing. No statehood for Washington DC and Puerto Rico and with them four new Senate seats. No massive defunding and restructuring of police. Nothing. The activist left has been neutered for now. Thanks to a newly tilted Supreme Court, Biden’s attempts to executive-order his way around Congress have been severely crippled as well. Biden will occupy the Oval Office while the national media gives Kamala Harris the presidential treatment. This should suit the political right just fine. A Mitch McConnell-led Senate will also force a President Biden to moderate his Supreme Court choices… The Democratic party may well secure the White House, but it will by no means have an electoral mandate, likely having done so with only a handful of electoral votes. It makes you wonder how President Trump would have fared in a year without a global pandemic, a year when he’d perhaps reined in his most Trumpian personality traits. But what the election revealed is the path forward for the GOP: a mix of economic populism and nationalism, but this time without the tweets (if Trump decides against running in 2024, that is). The 2020 election was by no means a sweeping rebuke of Trump’s policies, as the media and pollsters has been telling us it would be, nor was it the crashing blue wave the Democrats wanted.
The question is whether we get total gridlock, with McConnell reprising his 2009 strategy of blocking everything in hopes of making Biden a one-term president, or if the centrist cluster of Manchin et al. gets some say in what comes to the Senate floor. McConnell and Biden have known each other for decades from their time together in the chamber; there may be a little more wiggle room for compromise between them than there was between Cocaine Mitch and Obama. Democrats aren’t getting an assault-weapons ban or anything like that, but maybe the two sides will be able to get creative on economics. Most of the GOP caucus will be back in pretend-deficit-hawk mode, but not everyone — especially now that Trump’s economic populism has new potency after last night’s epic surge at the polls. If, say, Marco Rubio and Mike Lee want to expand the child tax credit, is there a bloc within the Senate GOP that includes 2024 hopefuls that’s willing to do that? Before last night, no. After last night…
Blunt but accurate verdict from last night: electorally, America actually is pretty on-board with the new GOP-style populism but has had enough of this Trump bullshit. In a funny way it's the worst possible outcome for the activist woke left. — Jeff B., who on earth is this guy?? (@EsotericCD) November 4, 2020
That’s sort of true about wokesters. They wanted total Democratic control of government to advance their agenda, but failing that they would have taken another term of Trump as a foil which could use to build out their ranks. What do they have now? Sleepy Joe in charge — probably — and a gridlocked Congress, with Republicans likely to make gains in 2022.
By the way an interesting quote from McConnell’s post-victory press conference today:
Senate Majority Leader McConnell on the possibility of a new Covid-19 relief package: "I think we need to do it, and I think we need to do it before the end of the year." pic.twitter.com/DpNgsW8pAL — NBC News (@NBCNews) November 4, 2020
Note the timeline — he wants it done by the end of the year. That’s good policy inasmuch as the money is urgently needed as the economy slows down but it’s also good politics in that he’s staring at one and possibly two Senate runoffs in Georgia in January. If there’s no stimulus by then, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler would be facing a Democratic onslaught from Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock running on a platform of going much bigger on a stimulus than Republicans would prefer. That’d be a hard message to counter at a moment of rising economic pain and COVID-related despair. McConnell’s going to try to take it off the table with a deal before then. We’ll see if Pelosi obliges him.
As for Never Trump, although many of us can live satisfactorily with a Biden/McConnell government, I can tell you that this sentiment is shared widely today within the ranks, and not just among hardcore NTers. The reason I predicted a narrow Trump victory last night despite month after month of blogging polls showing a Biden blowout was because I just couldn’t believe that this country, at this stage of its decline, would actually punish Trump for his civic offenses. I asked myself this: Might the people of America, having absorbed that spectacle in Lafayette Park in June, actually turn around and say, “I want to give this guy four more years in power and this time I want him to be totally unaccountable to voters“? And the answer was … yeah, they would absolutely do that. I don’t know if that’s who we always were but it’s who we are now. There’s a nonzero chance that my prediction, Trump 279-259, will end up within a single electoral vote of coming true. Stay tuned.


hotair--2020-11-04--The best news from last night was Trump's gains with minority voters

Wherever you are on the right , be it hardcore MAGA , ambivalent Trumper , or even Never Trump , you should find encouragement in the fact that the GOP coalition is a bit more racially diverse today than it was yesterday .
For Trumpists , his gains with Latinos and African-Americans suggest that Trumpism is the most viable path to keep the GOP competitive as the country ’ s demographics change .
Check this out : For those on the right less keen about Trump , take heart in the fact that these gains will check the inclination within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and quadruple down on “ white identity politics ” as its organizing principle as America ’ s population turns browner .
Many righty populists have traditionally believed that Latinos are a lost cause to the GOP and that , if illegal aliens are amnestized , Democrats will inevitably weaponize racial consciousness to convert those newly legalized voters into a permanent liberal majority .
Under that theory , the country is on a path to having elections between a growing “ brown party ” versus a shrinking “ white party , ” which would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ culture .
But last night the candidate who can never quite bring himself to denounce white nationalists *too* vociferously ironically proved that it doesn ’ t need to be that way .
Something about Trump brought more Latinos and black voters into the fold .
We ’ re going to spend the next four years having heated arguments over what that something was .
But for now , it ’ s worth taking a moment to gawk at just how dramatic some of his gains were : Trump ’ s weak point last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ … white men : Let the debate commence : What was Trump ’ s secret to making inroads with nonwhite voters ?
One possibility is that it was personality-driven .
Lots of hot takes have been written over the past month amid reports that he was overperforming among nonwhite voters in Florida that there was something about his alpha-male bravado that appeared to black and Latino men — not because they ’ re black or Latino but just because they ’ re men , as many white men are drawn to Trump for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maybe there ’ s something specific to Trump ’ s political persona that refocuses voters ’ attention from one form of identity onto another .
And once that refocusing has taken place , it ’ s easier to win them over .
Another possibility is that nonwhites were driven towards the GOP not by anything Trump did but by the radicalization of the American left .
When you celebrate socialists like Bernie and AOC ; when you choke on straightforward condemnations of rioting ; when you kick around inane ideas like “ abolishing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ asking for trouble among voters of all races who find those priorities wacky .
It ’ s worth noting that some Democratic operatives in Florida believe left-wing fringiness hurt Biden badly last night even though Sleepy Joe hasn ’ t adopted any of those positions as his own : Miami-Dade Democrats had sounded the alarm about Biden ’ s standing in the county , but were ignored by campaign officials who thought that the loss of the Cuban American vote there could be made up elsewhere with white voters .
“ It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rebut the socialist attack and that the Biden campaign just didn ’ t know what it was doing , ” said Alejandro Miyar , a Biden donor and Democratic strategist from Miami who was Barack Obama ’ s 2008 Hispanic and South Florida communications director… “ We must have gotten obliterated by Hispanics , ” said one Miami Democrat who was reeling from the party ’ s terrible showing in the county Tuesday night .
“ We came out strong for BLM and then saw the Hispanic push back and went lukewarm and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I never changed my mind about Trump ’ s unfitness for office .
But I found the left ’ s relentless identity politics increasingly repellent .
I wasn ’ t alone , ” sniffed Andrew Sullivan this afternoon .
Maybe Trump ’ s secret sauce is that , by inflaming the left so consistently , he inadvertently baited them into overreaching on issues that ended up alienating the very people whom they hoped to win to their cause .
He ’ s fought a culture war for four years and he maneuvered the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The third possibility is that it ’ s not Trump ’ s persona or his culture-warrior pitch that won over some nonwhites .
It ’ s economic populism .
Republicans like Marco Rubio who want to veer away from austere fiscal conservatism towards a more family-friendly economic policy seized on Trump ’ s numbers as proof that they ’ ve been right all along : It ’ s a working-man ’ s party now with working-class policies !
Except … that ’ s not quite true .
David French notes that the exit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who make less than $ 50,000 a year by 16 points and voters who make between $ 50,000 and $ 99,999 by 13 points .
Trump won those who earn $ 100,000 or more by 11 .
( Whether we should trust exit polls to tell us anything meaningful after this year ’ s full-spectrum polling debacle is a separate question . )
Biden actually *improved* on Hillary ’ s advantage among those who make $ 50K or less .
She won them by 12 points against Trump four years ago .
Besides @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s vaunted economic populism is that he ’ s just not all that populist .
The signature economic achievement of his first term was a Ryan/McConnell tax cut that mainly benefited wealthier earners .
He ’ s fought a trade war with China haphazardly and it failed to reverse declines in U.S. manufacturing .
He ’ s never sounded very engaged about the sort of pro-family policies , like an expanded child tax credit , that righties like Rubio champion .
Economic populists who look at Trump and see their pet issue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a bit of fiscal conservatives who looked at the success of George W. Bush and concluded that it meant there was some sort of serious public demand for small government , including Social Security reform .
That ’ s not to suggest that a more populist economic approach wouldn ’ t benefit the GOP .
Maybe if Trump had aggressively pushed for a larger child tax credit — or , er , a timely COVID stimulus — he ’ d be over the hump today in Michigan and Wisconsin .
But if Rubio @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to jump into the primary in 2024 and sweep to victory running on a platform of big-government conservatism , I think he ’ s kidding himself .
Persona and culture-war may not explain the entirety of Trump ’ s appeal but they sure as hell explain some of it .
And that comes at a potential cost .
I ’ ll leave you with this , from Philip Klein : “ The big question for Rs is whether you can have a candidate who has appeal to those same [ nonwhite ] Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suburban voters and other theoretically gettable voters for GOP .
”

Wherever you are on the right, be it hardcore MAGA, ambivalent Trumper, or even Never Trump, you should find encouragement in the fact that the GOP coalition is a bit more racially diverse today than it was yesterday. For Trumpists, his gains with Latinos and African-Americans suggest that Trumpism is the most viable path to keep the GOP competitive as the country’s demographics change. Check this out:
https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/1324012494751485952
For those on the right less keen about Trump, take heart in the fact that these gains will check the inclination within the party to double, triple, and quadruple down on “white identity politics” as its organizing principle as America’s population turns browner. Many righty populists have traditionally believed that Latinos are a lost cause to the GOP and that, if illegal aliens are amnestized, Democrats will inevitably weaponize racial consciousness to convert those newly legalized voters into a permanent liberal majority. Under that theory, the country is on a path to having elections between a growing “brown party” versus a shrinking “white party,” which would be poisonous to America’s political culture. But last night the candidate who can never quite bring himself to denounce white nationalists *too* vociferously ironically proved that it doesn’t need to be that way. Something about Trump brought more Latinos and black voters into the fold.
We’re going to spend the next four years having heated arguments over what that something was. But for now, it’s worth taking a moment to gawk at just how dramatic some of his gains were:
https://twitter.com/nguyenthevote/status/1323835185264267264
https://twitter.com/esaagar/status/1323978930727145472
Trump's overperformance with Latino voters should put to bed the idea that immigration-driven demographic trends portend an era of Democratic hegemony. The GOP can win non-white voters if they try. Just ignore the consultant class on which policies and messages to run with. https://t.co/dEp5ZfBZOR — Samuel Hammond 🌐🏛 (@hamandcheese) November 4, 2020
Trump’s weak point last night, it turns out, was … white men:
https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/status/1323825846365396992
Let the debate commence: What was Trump’s secret to making inroads with nonwhite voters? One possibility is that it was personality-driven. Lots of hot takes have been written over the past month amid reports that he was overperforming among nonwhite voters in Florida that there was something about his alpha-male bravado that appeared to black and Latino men — not because they’re black or Latino but just because they’re men, as many white men are drawn to Trump for the same reason. That is, maybe there’s something specific to Trump’s political persona that refocuses voters’ attention from one form of identity onto another. And once that refocusing has taken place, it’s easier to win them over.
Another possibility is that nonwhites were driven towards the GOP not by anything Trump did but by the radicalization of the American left. When you celebrate socialists like Bernie and AOC; when you choke on straightforward condemnations of rioting; when you kick around inane ideas like “abolishing the police,” you’re asking for trouble among voters of all races who find those priorities wacky. It’s worth noting that some Democratic operatives in Florida believe left-wing fringiness hurt Biden badly last night even though Sleepy Joe hasn’t adopted any of those positions as his own:
Miami-Dade Democrats had sounded the alarm about Biden’s standing in the county, but were ignored by campaign officials who thought that the loss of the Cuban American vote there could be made up elsewhere with white voters. “It’s proof positive Democrats couldn’t rebut the socialist attack and that the Biden campaign just didn’t know what it was doing,” said Alejandro Miyar, a Biden donor and Democratic strategist from Miami who was Barack Obama’s 2008 Hispanic and South Florida communications director… “We must have gotten obliterated by Hispanics,” said one Miami Democrat who was reeling from the party’s terrible showing in the county Tuesday night. “We came out strong for BLM and then saw the Hispanic push back and went lukewarm and got killed.”
“In four years I never changed my mind about Trump’s unfitness for office. But I found the left’s relentless identity politics increasingly repellent. I wasn’t alone,” sniffed Andrew Sullivan this afternoon. Maybe Trump’s secret sauce is that, by inflaming the left so consistently, he inadvertently baited them into overreaching on issues that ended up alienating the very people whom they hoped to win to their cause. He’s fought a culture war for four years and he maneuvered the enemy into a nearly catatrophic miscalculation.
The third possibility is that it’s not Trump’s persona or his culture-warrior pitch that won over some nonwhites. It’s economic populism. Republicans like Marco Rubio who want to veer away from austere fiscal conservatism towards a more family-friendly economic policy seized on Trump’s numbers as proof that they’ve been right all along:
#Florida & the Rio Grande Valley showed the future of the GOP A party built on a multi-ethnic multi-racial coalition of working AMERICANS https://t.co/1t2IJldqjH — Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) November 4, 2020
It’s a working-man’s party now with working-class policies! Except … that’s not quite true. David French notes that the exit polls last night showed Biden winning voters who make less than $50,000 a year by 16 points and voters who make between $50,000 and $99,999 by 13 points. Trump won those who earn $100,000 or more by 11. (Whether we should trust exit polls to tell us anything meaningful after this year’s full-spectrum polling debacle is a separate question.) Biden actually *improved* on Hillary’s advantage among those who make $50K or less. She won them by 12 points against Trump four years ago.
Besides, the dirty little secret of Trump’s vaunted economic populism is that he’s just not all that populist. The signature economic achievement of his first term was a Ryan/McConnell tax cut that mainly benefited wealthier earners. He’s fought a trade war with China haphazardly and it failed to reverse declines in U.S. manufacturing. He’s never sounded very engaged about the sort of pro-family policies, like an expanded child tax credit, that righties like Rubio champion. Economic populists who look at Trump and see their pet issue being vindicated in his popularity remind me a bit of fiscal conservatives who looked at the success of George W. Bush and concluded that it meant there was some sort of serious public demand for small government, including Social Security reform.
That’s not to suggest that a more populist economic approach wouldn’t benefit the GOP. Maybe if Trump had aggressively pushed for a larger child tax credit — or, er, a timely COVID stimulus — he’d be over the hump today in Michigan and Wisconsin. But if Rubio’s thinking he’s going to jump into the primary in 2024 and sweep to victory running on a platform of big-government conservatism, I think he’s kidding himself. Persona and culture-war may not explain the entirety of Trump’s appeal but they sure as hell explain some of it.
And that comes at a potential cost. I’ll leave you with this, from Philip Klein: “The big question for Rs is whether you can have a candidate who has appeal to those same [nonwhite] Trump supporters without the attitude that turns off suburban voters and other theoretically gettable voters for GOP.”


hotair--2020-11-04--New Mexico's Second District probably flipped red because of Biden's fossil fuel comments

Another close race in New Mexico last night wound up subtracting one more seat from Nancy Pelosi ’ s majority in the House .
In New Mexico-02 , Democratic Congresswoman Xochitl Torres Small was already in a tight battle with Republican challenger Yvette Herrell , a rematch of the contest Torres Small barely won in 2018 .
But in the closing days of the race , the subject of fracking , fossil fuels and energy industry jobs reared its head .
Torres Small had previously gone on the record saying we needed to back off from our dependency on oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those industries , but Joe Biden ’ s comments about eliminating them entirely brought the issue into sharper focus .
Exit polling indicates that this was an issue on many people ’ s minds and Herrell had stressed her commitment to protecting those jobs .
When the smoke cleared , Herrell found herself heading for a seat in the House of Representatives .
( Free Beacon ) New Mexico Republican Yvette Herrell ousted Rep. Xochitl Torres Small ( D. , N.M. ) in a race defined by the Democratic Party ’ s attacks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ former member of the New Mexico House of Representatives , defeated Torres Small after championing the region ’ s energy economy on the campaign trail .
The Associated Press called the race early Wednesday morning .
Torres Small went to great lengths to distance herself from Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden ’ s stance on fracking and her own past activism against the oil industry .
She publicly repudiated the Democratic nominee in the closing days of the race for voicing opposition to federal oil and fossil fuel subsidies .
Congresswoman Torres Small @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know how to read a poll and tipped her off that things were starting to go pear-shaped last month .
She was marched out to make a public statement saying she “ disagreed with Vice President Biden , ” adding that she would “ continue to stand up to ” her party when they are out of touch with conditions on the ground in New Mexico .
It was probably the right thing to do , but it doesn ’ t seem like the voters bought it .
This seat was one more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be absolutely fuming about today .
After being told by the liberal media for months that they were on their way to a blue wave sweeping over the nation , the Democrats actually lost seats in the House and it looks like they completely failed to take the majority in the Senate .
If they manage to lose the race for the White House yet again ( still to be determined ) they will have pulled off a reverse hat trick .
I realize we ’ re in the middle of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but it really does appear that energy issues played a significant role in the 2020 elections , at least in some places .
I would attribute at least part of the stronger-than-anticipated performance by Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and , perhaps to a lesser degree , in Ohio , to Biden ’ s fumbles on the energy question .
And the nuclear energy issue was in play in Utah and Idaho recently as well .
It ’ s hard enough for many people to keep their jobs with all of the shutdowns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eliminate even more well-paying jobs wasn ’ t a smart strategy .
Do you know the one place where there ’ s a major energy issue that ’ s being completely ignored by the voters ?
California .
These are the ( primarily ) liberal Democrats who keep putting people in power who insist on solar and wind as the way to go .
Then they encounter rolling blackouts on a regular basis after the sun goes down , even when there aren ’ t wildfires consuming the state , and they wonder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ real mystery and no doubt about it .
What they also probably fail to realize is that every time they run out of juice , they have to import more from neighboring states .
That not only costs more , but it ’ s primarily energy being created via fossil fuels , so they ’ re still contributing to the “ problem ” of burning natural gas .
It ’ s such a genius plan that they must all be patting themselves on the back .

Another close race in New Mexico last night wound up subtracting one more seat from Nancy Pelosi’s majority in the House. In New Mexico-02, Democratic Congresswoman Xochitl Torres Small was already in a tight battle with Republican challenger Yvette Herrell, a rematch of the contest Torres Small barely won in 2018. But in the closing days of the race, the subject of fracking, fossil fuels and energy industry jobs reared its head. Torres Small had previously gone on the record saying we needed to back off from our dependency on oil and gas and should reduce subsidies to those industries, but Joe Biden’s comments about eliminating them entirely brought the issue into sharper focus. Exit polling indicates that this was an issue on many people’s minds and Herrell had stressed her commitment to protecting those jobs. When the smoke cleared, Herrell found herself heading for a seat in the House of Representatives. (Free Beacon)
New Mexico Republican Yvette Herrell ousted Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D., N.M.) in a race defined by the Democratic Party’s attacks on fossil fuels. Herrell, a former member of the New Mexico House of Representatives, defeated Torres Small after championing the region’s energy economy on the campaign trail. The Associated Press called the race early Wednesday morning. Torres Small went to great lengths to distance herself from Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s stance on fracking and her own past activism against the oil industry. She publicly repudiated the Democratic nominee in the closing days of the race for voicing opposition to federal oil and fossil fuel subsidies.
Congresswoman Torres Small probably had people on her staff who know how to read a poll and tipped her off that things were starting to go pear-shaped last month. She was marched out to make a public statement saying she “disagreed with Vice President Biden,” adding that she would “continue to stand up to” her party when they are out of touch with conditions on the ground in New Mexico. It was probably the right thing to do, but it doesn’t seem like the voters bought it.
This seat was one more example of something that the Democrats have to be absolutely fuming about today. After being told by the liberal media for months that they were on their way to a blue wave sweeping over the nation, the Democrats actually lost seats in the House and it looks like they completely failed to take the majority in the Senate. If they manage to lose the race for the White House yet again (still to be determined) they will have pulled off a reverse hat trick.
I realize we’re in the middle of a pandemic and murder hornets and everything else, but it really does appear that energy issues played a significant role in the 2020 elections, at least in some places. I would attribute at least part of the stronger-than-anticipated performance by Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and, perhaps to a lesser degree, in Ohio, to Biden’s fumbles on the energy question. And the nuclear energy issue was in play in Utah and Idaho recently as well. It’s hard enough for many people to keep their jobs with all of the shutdowns and restrictions being mandated. Promising to eliminate even more well-paying jobs wasn’t a smart strategy.
Do you know the one place where there’s a major energy issue that’s being completely ignored by the voters? California. These are the (primarily) liberal Democrats who keep putting people in power who insist on solar and wind as the way to go. Then they encounter rolling blackouts on a regular basis after the sun goes down, even when there aren’t wildfires consuming the state, and they wonder why. Yep… it’s a real mystery and no doubt about it. What they also probably fail to realize is that every time they run out of juice, they have to import more from neighboring states. That not only costs more, but it’s primarily energy being created via fossil fuels, so they’re still contributing to the “problem” of burning natural gas. It’s such a genius plan that they must all be patting themselves on the back.


hotair--2020-11-04--Susan Collins wins re-election despite never having led in a single poll

Decision Desk called the Maine Senate race for Susan Collins a few minutes ago .
At nearly the same time , Sen. Collins was making an announcement .
“ I have news to report to you , ” Collins said .
She continued , “ I ’ ve just received a very gracious call from Sara Gideon conceding the race .
I want to thank Sara for her call.
” The tone of that statement is vastly different from what Collins was saying about Gideon less than a month ago : “ She will say or do anything to try @ @ @ @ @ @ @ asked of her opponent during a wide-ranging 30-minute interview in her Capitol quarters last week .
“ This race is built on a foundation of falsehoods .
And trying to convince the people of Maine that somehow I am no longer the same person.
” Collins wasn ’ t done as she accused Gideon of “ defaming my reputation and attacking my integrity ” in their increasingly nasty race .
For good measure , the Maine Republican added that Gideon ’ s campaign was being run as an arm of Chuck Schumer ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the statehouse speaker , for not reconvening the legislature amid the pandemic and challenged Gideon ’ s handling of a sexual misconduct scandal .
There are really two stories worth highlighting here .
The first is that Democrats have been furious with Collins since her vote to confirm Justice Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court and they spent a truckload of cash trying to unseat her .
Two years ago , when Republican Sen. Susan Collins announced that she would vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh after he was accused of sexual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her in the 2020 election — and they haven ’ t hit the brakes since .
Her opponent , Sara Gideon , who currently serves as the speaker of the Maine House of Representatives , has posted stunning fundraising numbers , raising more than $ 63.6 million since she launched her campaign last summer , while Collins raised just $ 25.2 million over the last two years… Between July and September alone , Gideon brought in $ 39.4 million , while Collins raised just $ 8 million .
According to the Bangor Daily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 11 million from July to September on digital and TV ads , while Collins spent $ 4.3 million on media production .
Just like the expensive but failed efforts to unseat Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell , Democrats might just as well have set that big pile of cash on fire .
The other story that really deserves attention is the failure by the media to accurately predict this race , like so much else they failed to accurately predict .
Guy Benson made the point with a single image : You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Politics .
Not a single poll ever showed Collins in the lead .
Even Shaun King is amazed : This really looks like an astounding failure for both Democrats and the media .
But I repeat myself .

Decision Desk called the Maine Senate race for Susan Collins a few minutes ago.
Decision Desk HQ Projects Collins (R) Has Won Election To The Senate From The State Of ME Race Called At 11-04 01:13 PM EST All Results: https://t.co/eBBPVCXMLz — Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2020
At nearly the same time, Sen. Collins was making an announcement. “I have news to report to you,” Collins said. She continued, “I’ve just received a very gracious call from Sara Gideon conceding the race. I want to thank Sara for her call.”
#BREAKING: Sen. Susan Collins says she's "just received a very gracious call from Sara Gideon conceding the race." #MESenate pic.twitter.com/4ceUHIhq2m — The Hill (@thehill) November 4, 2020
The tone of that statement is vastly different from what Collins was saying about Gideon less than a month ago:
“She will say or do anything to try to win,” Collins said when asked of her opponent during a wide-ranging 30-minute interview in her Capitol quarters last week. “This race is built on a foundation of falsehoods. And trying to convince the people of Maine that somehow I am no longer the same person.” Collins wasn’t done as she accused Gideon of “defaming my reputation and attacking my integrity” in their increasingly nasty race. For good measure, the Maine Republican added that Gideon’s campaign was being run as an arm of Chuck Schumer’s Washington operation, scolded Gideon, the statehouse speaker, for not reconvening the legislature amid the pandemic and challenged Gideon’s handling of a sexual misconduct scandal.
There are really two stories worth highlighting here. The first is that Democrats have been furious with Collins since her vote to confirm Justice Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court and they spent a truckload of cash trying to unseat her.
Two years ago, when Republican Sen. Susan Collins announced that she would vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh after he was accused of sexual assault, liberal groups vowed to oust her in the 2020 election — and they haven’t hit the brakes since. Her opponent, Sara Gideon, who currently serves as the speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, has posted stunning fundraising numbers, raising more than $63.6 million since she launched her campaign last summer, while Collins raised just $25.2 million over the last two years… Between July and September alone, Gideon brought in $39.4 million, while Collins raised just $8 million. According to the Bangor Daily News itself, the Gideon campaign spent $11 million from July to September on digital and TV ads, while Collins spent $4.3 million on media production.
Just like the expensive but failed efforts to unseat Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell, Democrats might just as well have set that big pile of cash on fire.
The other story that really deserves attention is the failure by the media to accurately predict this race, like so much else they failed to accurately predict. Guy Benson made the point with a single image:
Reminder that *not one* of these polls, dating back to February, showed Collins ahead — let alone with a near/majority. She’s now won decisively. There are some big league polling problems in American politics. What a massive win for her. pic.twitter.com/4UG8AQz5VS — Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 4, 2020
You can check it yourself at Real Clear Politics. Not a single poll ever showed Collins in the lead. Even Shaun King is amazed:
Susan Collins did not lead in ONE SINGLE POLL. She's due to win by +6. Polling is off like this everywhere. https://t.co/kvMsPOuWtd — Shaun King (@shaunking) November 4, 2020
Frank Luntz called it “systematic failure.”
This really looks like an astounding failure for both Democrats and the media. But I repeat myself.


hotair--2020-11-04--AZ SecState: Expect some changes by the end of the day

Gee , whatever can Katie Hobbs mean ?
Actually , Arizona ’ s Secretary of State gives some rational background on what ’ s happening with their vote count from last night , and explains why the official numbers aren ’ t changing yet this morning .
Despite rumors of reversed counts and narrowing margins , the official numbers won ’ t change unless the counties update their counts .
That won ’ t happen until the end of business today for Maricopa County , Hobbs told KTAR a little while ago , but she expects some significant changes .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ballots are being counted : Hobbs gently demurs from “ calling ” the race , and explains that ’ s not her job .
She does caution others not to do so either , but to wait for the final counts to be registered with her office .
As soon as she gets those , Hobbs says , the official tally will get updated on the state ’ s website .
The New York Times pointedly notes now that only 86 % of the estimated vote has yet been counted , as of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a mild correction to earlier reports that 99 % had reported .
Katie Pavlich reports that in her Townhall curation of tweeted developments : So there is a significant amount of the vote still outstanding in Arizona .
If it ’ s all from Maricopa , it won ’ t help Trump much , as Maricopa tilts Democratic and Biden ’ s up six points in the county ’ s count at the moment .
Vaughn Hillyard claims there is a wide distribution of uncounted votes that could still push Arizona into Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ named Data Orbital says fits their analysis : If the vast majority of these are from Maricopa and Pima ( Tucson ) as Hillyard reports , I am not sure how this looks like good news .
The operating theory ( as I understand it ) is that these are mainly same-day voting ballots , which should favor Trump , but it ’ s still in two Democratic strongholds .
Sixty-two thousand in Pinal should be very good news for Trump , but up against ~350K in two Democratic strongholds ?
Trump would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Phoenix and Tucson .
But first , perhaps we should count the votes before writing it off or calling it , as Governor Doug Ducey suggests : I agree , so stay tuned for a 5 PT update to these numbers .

Gee, whatever can Katie Hobbs mean? Actually, Arizona’s Secretary of State gives some rational background on what’s happening with their vote count from last night, and explains why the official numbers aren’t changing yet this morning. Despite rumors of reversed counts and narrowing margins, the official numbers won’t change unless the counties update their counts.
That won’t happen until the end of business today for Maricopa County, Hobbs told KTAR a little while ago, but she expects some significant changes. That is where most of the outstanding ballots are being counted:
Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs joined @BroomheadShow and detailed where things stand for Arizona in the ongoing elections process. pic.twitter.com/Nk5O3xDHWk — KTAR News 92.3 (@KTAR923) November 4, 2020
Hobbs gently demurs from “calling” the race, and explains that’s not her job. She does caution others not to do so either, but to wait for the final counts to be registered with her office. As soon as she gets those, Hobbs says, the official tally will get updated on the state’s website.
The New York Times pointedly notes now that only 86% of the estimated vote has yet been counted, as of noon ET today. That itself if a mild correction to earlier reports that 99% had reported. Katie Pavlich reports that in her Townhall curation of tweeted developments:
This gives some credence to the Trump camp's argument in a call with reporters that it expects to pull ahead in Arizona, because most of the outstanding vote is in Trump-friendly territory. — Jeff Dufour (@dcdufour) November 4, 2020
So there is a significant amount of the vote still outstanding in Arizona. If it’s all from Maricopa, it won’t help Trump much, as Maricopa tilts Democratic and Biden’s up six points in the county’s count at the moment. Vaughn Hillyard claims there is a wide distribution of uncounted votes that could still push Arizona into Trump’s column, which a firm named Data Orbital says fits their analysis:
And we have an update on estimated # of Arizona early ballots left to be processed from some counties: Gila: ~2300
Graham: ~1100
Greenlee 652
La Paz: 880
Maricopa: At least 250k
Pima: ~92k
Pinal: ~62k
Santa Cruz: ~3k
Yavapai: ~10k
Yuma: ~19k https://t.co/AVEYRMv0VP — Vaughn Hillyard (@VaughnHillyard) November 4, 2020
The analysis on outstanding ballots mostly being from Maricopa and favoring Biden misses a huge factor: at least 250k of the remaining ballots have a Republican advantage of 20%. Unlike in other states, late earlies will favor Trump. #ElectionTwitter #Election2020 #AZ — Data Orbital (@Data_Orbital) November 4, 2020
If the vast majority of these are from Maricopa and Pima (Tucson) as Hillyard reports, I am not sure how this looks like good news. The operating theory (as I understand it) is that these are mainly same-day voting ballots, which should favor Trump, but it’s still in two Democratic strongholds. Sixty-two thousand in Pinal should be very good news for Trump, but up against ~350K in two Democratic strongholds? Trump would need a miracle to wring victory out of Phoenix and Tucson.
But first, perhaps we should count the votes before writing it off or calling it, as Governor Doug Ducey suggests:
Not so fast. The race has narrowed in #AZ considerably. 130,000 votes separate the candidates, with hundreds of thousands of votes yet to be counted, from all over the state. I'll say it again: Let's count the votes, and let the people decide rather than making declarations. https://t.co/1WYhjChrtm — Doug Ducey (@dougducey) November 4, 2020
I agree, so stay tuned for a 5 PT update to these numbers.


hotair--2020-11-04--Baltimore elections show they have no interest in reform

While many states across the nation are still nervously watching as the votes are tallied in races that turned out to be nail-biters , the people of Maryland and particularly the City of Baltimore , have no such worries .
There was almost no need for anyone to bother turning on the television set to see what happened .
Everything was decided shortly after the polls closed .
In reality , those races were all decided over the summer .
That ’ s because Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two to one across the state .
In Charm City @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to one .
And so they did what they always do .
Despite the massive challenges facing Baltimore and its terrible track record on everything from violent crime to official corruption , the voters dutifully sent the same cast of liberal , Democratic characters back to power yet again .
Oh , a few of the names were different , but what they ’ re bringing to these offices hasn ’ t changed a bit .
And that includes two high-profile politicos who were recently found to have “ neglected ” to pay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and have had IRS liens placed on their property .
( Baltimore Sun ) There were no big surprises in Baltimore ’ s general election races .
The city ’ s contests are usually decided during the primary elections .
Baltimore City Council President Brandon Scott , a Democrat , coasted to victory in the city ’ s mayoral race against several challengers , including the unusually well-funded unaffiliated candidate , Bob Wallace .
But the 36-year-old Park Heights native declared victory shortly after 10 p.m. , with about 72 % of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ favor .
Del .
Nick Mosby won the Baltimore City Council President contest , despite revelations last month that he and his wife , Democratic State ’ s Attorney Marilyn J. Mosby , owed taxes to the federal government .
Some of those names should look familiar to regular readers .
Marilyn Mosby is still the State ’ s Attorney for Baltimore .
She ’ s part of that husband and wife duo who can ’ t seem to remember to pay their taxes .
She ’ s also the person who has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prosecute police rather than murderous gang leaders , demonstrating an inability to even make a dent in the city ’ s skyrocketing murder rate .
Her husband Nick Mosby has now ascended to the position of City Council President , despite his shared tax issues and being cut from the same political cloth as his wife .
Now that he ’ ll have a bigger hand in the city ’ s coffers I can ’ t wait to see what happens over the next two years .
Nick was only able to ascend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s being vacated by Brandon Scott , who will be taking over as Mayor .
Scott ran on a pledge to get rid of all of the corruption at City Hall .
( Two of the last five mayors left office after being arrested on corruption charges .
One is still in prison .
Another didn ’ t even bother running for a second term after standing by while the city burned to the ground . )
As part of Scott ’ s plan to clean things up , he vowed to reduce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ office in handling city contracts and payments .
But as soon as he won the primary , he walked that promise back , saying it might not be prudent to rush into such sweeping changes .
Still , Baltimore seemed to have dodged a bullet by electing Scott .
In the primary , the voters came within a handful of percentage points of instead sending one of their old mayors , Shelia Dixon , back to office instead .
For the record , she ’ s one of the two mayors I mentioned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
She was convicted of embezzlement and stealing gift cards intended for disabled children .
I ’ ve long since ceased having any sympathy for the people of Baltimore , Maryland , even realizing how awful I must sound for saying so .
Gangs rule the streets .
Abandoned buildings dominate the landscape .
Their leaders regularly line their own pockets while their constituents live in filthy conditions with failing schools located on streets that are not safe to walk on .
And nothing ever seems to change .
Baltimore ’ s population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do so flee .
But those who remain own the mess that ’ s been created .
They could choose to vote new blood into office and try to clean things up .
But they don ’ t .
They ’ ve made their bed yet again , and how they ’ ll have a couple more years to sleep in it .

While many states across the nation are still nervously watching as the votes are tallied in races that turned out to be nail-biters, the people of Maryland and particularly the City of Baltimore, have no such worries. There was almost no need for anyone to bother turning on the television set to see what happened. Everything was decided shortly after the polls closed. In reality, those races were all decided over the summer. That’s because Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two to one across the state. In Charm City, the margin is more like six to one. And so they did what they always do. Despite the massive challenges facing Baltimore and its terrible track record on everything from violent crime to official corruption, the voters dutifully sent the same cast of liberal, Democratic characters back to power yet again. Oh, a few of the names were different, but what they’re bringing to these offices hasn’t changed a bit. And that includes two high-profile politicos who were recently found to have “neglected” to pay tens of thousands of dollars in taxes and have had IRS liens placed on their property. (Baltimore Sun)
There were no big surprises in Baltimore’s general election races. The city’s contests are usually decided during the primary elections. Baltimore City Council President Brandon Scott, a Democrat, coasted to victory in the city’s mayoral race against several challengers, including the unusually well-funded unaffiliated candidate, Bob Wallace. But the 36-year-old Park Heights native declared victory shortly after 10 p.m., with about 72% of the early and mail-in votes tabulated in his favor. Del. Nick Mosby won the Baltimore City Council President contest, despite revelations last month that he and his wife, Democratic State’s Attorney Marilyn J. Mosby, owed taxes to the federal government.
Some of those names should look familiar to regular readers. Marilyn Mosby is still the State’s Attorney for Baltimore. She’s part of that husband and wife duo who can’t seem to remember to pay their taxes. She’s also the person who has spent most of her time trying to prosecute police rather than murderous gang leaders, demonstrating an inability to even make a dent in the city’s skyrocketing murder rate.
Her husband Nick Mosby has now ascended to the position of City Council President, despite his shared tax issues and being cut from the same political cloth as his wife. Now that he’ll have a bigger hand in the city’s coffers I can’t wait to see what happens over the next two years.
Nick was only able to ascend to his new office because it’s being vacated by Brandon Scott, who will be taking over as Mayor. Scott ran on a pledge to get rid of all of the corruption at City Hall. (Two of the last five mayors left office after being arrested on corruption charges. One is still in prison. Another didn’t even bother running for a second term after standing by while the city burned to the ground.) As part of Scott’s plan to clean things up, he vowed to reduce the power of the Mayor’s office in handling city contracts and payments. But as soon as he won the primary, he walked that promise back, saying it might not be prudent to rush into such sweeping changes.
Still, Baltimore seemed to have dodged a bullet by electing Scott. In the primary, the voters came within a handful of percentage points of instead sending one of their old mayors, Shelia Dixon, back to office instead. For the record, she’s one of the two mayors I mentioned above who left City Hall in handcuffs. She was convicted of embezzlement and stealing gift cards intended for disabled children.
I’ve long since ceased having any sympathy for the people of Baltimore, Maryland, even realizing how awful I must sound for saying so. Gangs rule the streets. Abandoned buildings dominate the landscape. Their leaders regularly line their own pockets while their constituents live in filthy conditions with failing schools located on streets that are not safe to walk on. And nothing ever seems to change. Baltimore’s population has plummeted as those with the ability to do so flee. But those who remain own the mess that’s been created. They could choose to vote new blood into office and try to clean things up. But they don’t. They’ve made their bed yet again, and how they’ll have a couple more years to sleep in it.


hotair--2020-11-04--Bad news for Nancy: Contrary to expectations, Republicans have gained seats in the House <span class

Bad news for Nancy: Contrary to expectations, Republicans have gained seats in the House (Update: 'It's a dumpster fire' plus talk of ditching Pelosi)

The House races haven ’ t gotten as much attention as the Senate but it appears Republicans have done very well .
Prior to yesterday , some forecasts said Democrats were likely to pick up as many as 10-15 additional seats , with an outside chance of +20 for Dems .
This is Cook Political Report ’ s final rating : We now view a Democratic net gain of 10 to 15 seats as the likeliest outcome , with anything from five to 20 seats well within the realm of possibility… In our final House ratings , we ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ direction , including three in the high-turnout Lone Star state .
If the 27 races in our Toss Up column were to split evenly down the middle , Democrats would net nine or ten seats .
Like a lot of other predictions that one doesn ’ t appear to be particularly accurate .
At present the NY Times ’ House results map shows the GOP with a net gain of five seats in the House .
That comes from 7 seats the GOP flipped compared to 2 the Democrats have flipped .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who lost : After decades of trying , Republicans defeated 15-term Rep. Collin Peterson from a rural Minnesota district that backed President Donald Trump in 2016 by 31 percentage points , Trump ’ s biggest margin in any Democratic-held district .
Peterson , who chairs the House Agriculture Committee , opposed Trump ’ s impeachment and is one of the House ’ s most conservative Democrats .
He was defeated by Republican Michelle Fischbach , the former lieutenant governor .
In Iowa , GOP state Rep. Ashley Hinson defeated freshman Democratic incumbent Abby @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state ’ s northeastern congressional seat .
Hinson is a former television news anchor .
Also losing were freshmen Democrats Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Donna Shalala , health secretary under President Bill Clinton , in adjacent South Florida districts where Trump seemed to consolidate support among Cuban voters .
Others defeated were Democratic freshmen Joe Cunningham of South Carolina , Xochitl Torres Small of New Mexico and Kendra Horn in Oklahoma , who had surprising victories in 2018 in districts Trump carried decisively in 2016 .
The fight for Torres Small ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making it one of the country ’ s most expensive races , according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics .
She was defeated by Yvette Herrell , a former state legislator .
There are still 55 seats that haven ’ t been called but at the moment the NY Times reports the GOP is leading in 31 of those races .
In some cases there is still a lot of outstanding vote to be counted so I don ’ t think the GOP will hold all of those seats but if they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 216 seats , two shy of controlling the House .
Perhaps the best way to appreciate the results is to just look at the NY Times ’ House results page .
Don ’ t look at the map but scroll down to the five columns of House seats .
The far left column shows House seats Dems were expected to win easily .
Next to that was a column for seats Dems were expected to win narrowly .
Then tossups in the middle column .
Then seats the GOP was expected to win @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was seats the GOP was expected to win easily .
At present the GOP looks likely to win all of the seats in the two columns on the right .
In the center tossup column there were 27 seats .
The GOP has already won 13 of those and leads in 11 more .
And in the column ( 2nd from the left ) of races where Democrats were expected to win narrowly , the GOP has already claimed 4 seats and is leading in 10 more races ( some of those very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tossup column as I write this : Again , I don ’ t assume the GOP is going to hold all of the seats where they are currently leading but the chances of Democrats making up for the net loss of five is looking pretty slim and there ’ s at least some chance the Democrats ’ majority in the House could turn out to be very thin .
That would be very bad news for Nancy Pelosi .
As the AP points out , a narrow majority could make for a bumpy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is back : Nancy has already had a tough time dealing with her energetic left flank .
Now she ’ s going to have less of a moderate cushion .
She may actually need the Squad to get anything passed which means AOC could play a bigger role in shaping what comes out of the House .
But if this happens it may not last for long because 2022 is expected to be a tougher cycle for Dems .
Update : Politico has published a story on the House Dems no good , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ asking themselves one question after Tuesday ’ s election stunner : What the hell happened ?
In the House , bleary-eyed Democrats were still sorting out the wreckage when they awoke Wednesday with dozens of their members ’ races still uncalled and not a single GOP incumbent ousted — an outcome that virtually no one in the party had predicted in a year in which Democrats were going on the offense deep in Trump country .
Even with tens of thousands of ballots still to be counted , shell-shocked Democratic lawmakers , strategists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the blame : The unreliable polls .
The GOP ’ s law-and-order message amid a summer of unrest .
The “ hidden Trump voters.
” The impeachment hangover .
The lack of a coronavirus stimulus deal… Some Democrats were privately more blunt : “ It ’ s a dumpster fire , ” said one lawmaker , who declined to be named… None of the roughly dozen Democratic lawmakers or aides interviewed said Pelosi should step down or would face a challenger .
But several of them privately speculated that what was just days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the speakership will be more difficult as Democrats lose seats in the House .
That ’ s what they ’ re saying now but if the GOP winds up picking up more seats , which is still possible , Pelosi ’ s path forward may become very rocky indeed .
Stung by their party ’ s disappointing showing at the polls Tuesday , two moderate House Democrats say they and other centrists are privately discussing a plan that was unthinkable just 24 hours earlier : throwing their support behind a challenger to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ One of the two lawmakers who spoke to The Hill said a number of Democrats representing suburban and exurban districts had been talking about the need for a change .
“ It ’ s time for Democrats to elevate a new generation of leadership in both the House and the Senate , ” the lawmaker said .
“ Americans are clearly afraid of ‘ socialism , ’ want safe streets and neighborhoods and to vote for people who they believe will help put more money in their pockets .
While Democratic policies can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mechanism clearly can not .
” The pair of Democrats said they were in the process of reaching out to all of the “ suburban survivors ” of Tuesday night ’ s elections… They are calling themselves “ suburban survivors.
” That ’ s got to hurt .

The House races haven’t gotten as much attention as the Senate but it appears Republicans have done very well. Prior to yesterday, some forecasts said Democrats were likely to pick up as many as 10-15 additional seats, with an outside chance of +20 for Dems. This is Cook Political Report’s final rating:
We now view a Democratic net gain of 10 to 15 seats as the likeliest outcome, with anything from five to 20 seats well within the realm of possibility… In our final House ratings, we’re shifting eight more races in Democrats’ direction, including three in the high-turnout Lone Star state. If the 27 races in our Toss Up column were to split evenly down the middle, Democrats would net nine or ten seats.
Like a lot of other predictions that one doesn’t appear to be particularly accurate. At present the NY Times’ House results map shows the GOP with a net gain of five seats in the House. That comes from 7 seats the GOP flipped compared to 2 the Democrats have flipped. The Associated Press has more on the Dems who lost:
After decades of trying, Republicans defeated 15-term Rep. Collin Peterson from a rural Minnesota district that backed President Donald Trump in 2016 by 31 percentage points, Trump’s biggest margin in any Democratic-held district. Peterson, who chairs the House Agriculture Committee, opposed Trump’s impeachment and is one of the House’s most conservative Democrats. He was defeated by Republican Michelle Fischbach, the former lieutenant governor. In Iowa, GOP state Rep. Ashley Hinson defeated freshman Democratic incumbent Abby Finkenauer to win a hard-fought race for the state’s northeastern congressional seat. Hinson is a former television news anchor. Also losing were freshmen Democrats Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Donna Shalala, health secretary under President Bill Clinton, in adjacent South Florida districts where Trump seemed to consolidate support among Cuban voters. Others defeated were Democratic freshmen Joe Cunningham of South Carolina, Xochitl Torres Small of New Mexico and Kendra Horn in Oklahoma, who had surprising victories in 2018 in districts Trump carried decisively in 2016. The fight for Torres Small’s seat cost around $35 million, making it one of the country’s most expensive races, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. She was defeated by Yvette Herrell, a former state legislator.
Races that haven’t been called
There are still 55 seats that haven’t been called but at the moment the NY Times reports the GOP is leading in 31 of those races. In some cases there is still a lot of outstanding vote to be counted so I don’t think the GOP will hold all of those seats but if they did the GOP would wind up with 216 seats, two shy of controlling the House.
Perhaps the best way to appreciate the results is to just look at the NY Times’ House results page. Don’t look at the map but scroll down to the five columns of House seats. The far left column shows House seats Dems were expected to win easily. Next to that was a column for seats Dems were expected to win narrowly. Then tossups in the middle column. Then seats the GOP was expected to win narrowly. Finally on the right side was seats the GOP was expected to win easily.
At present the GOP looks likely to win all of the seats in the two columns on the right. In the center tossup column there were 27 seats. The GOP has already won 13 of those and leads in 11 more. And in the column (2nd from the left) of races where Democrats were expected to win narrowly, the GOP has already claimed 4 seats and is leading in 10 more races (some of those very narrowly). Here’s the tossup column as I write this:
Again, I don’t assume the GOP is going to hold all of the seats where they are currently leading but the chances of Democrats making up for the net loss of five is looking pretty slim and there’s at least some chance the Democrats’ majority in the House could turn out to be very thin.
That would be very bad news for Nancy Pelosi. As the AP points out, a narrow majority could make for a bumpy ride:
A smaller Democratic majority would make it tougher for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., to unite her lawmakers as a handful of progressive freshmen arrive for the new Congress.
In particular, guess who is back:
The dynamic group of women of color have been reelected for second terms in the House of Representatives.https://t.co/PeloCn7goO — NowThis (@nowthisnews) November 4, 2020
Nancy has already had a tough time dealing with her energetic left flank. Now she’s going to have less of a moderate cushion. She may actually need the Squad to get anything passed which means AOC could play a bigger role in shaping what comes out of the House. But if this happens it may not last for long because 2022 is expected to be a tougher cycle for Dems.
Update: Politico has published a story on the House Dems no good, very bad night.
House Democrats are asking themselves one question after Tuesday’s election stunner: What the hell happened? In the House, bleary-eyed Democrats were still sorting out the wreckage when they awoke Wednesday with dozens of their members’ races still uncalled and not a single GOP incumbent ousted — an outcome that virtually no one in the party had predicted in a year in which Democrats were going on the offense deep in Trump country. Even with tens of thousands of ballots still to be counted, shell-shocked Democratic lawmakers, strategists and aides privately began trying to pin the blame: The unreliable polls. The GOP’s law-and-order message amid a summer of unrest. The “hidden Trump voters.” The impeachment hangover. The lack of a coronavirus stimulus deal… Some Democrats were privately more blunt: “It’s a dumpster fire,” said one lawmaker, who declined to be named… None of the roughly dozen Democratic lawmakers or aides interviewed said Pelosi should step down or would face a challenger. But several of them privately speculated that what was just days ago expected to be a glide path to the speakership will be more difficult as Democrats lose seats in the House.
That’s what they’re saying now but if the GOP winds up picking up more seats, which is still possible, Pelosi’s path forward may become very rocky indeed.
Update: It’s happening!
Stung by their party’s disappointing showing at the polls Tuesday, two moderate House Democrats say they and other centrists are privately discussing a plan that was unthinkable just 24 hours earlier: throwing their support behind a challenger to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)… One of the two lawmakers who spoke to The Hill said a number of Democrats representing suburban and exurban districts had been talking about the need for a change. “It’s time for Democrats to elevate a new generation of leadership in both the House and the Senate,” the lawmaker said. “Americans are clearly afraid of ‘socialism,’ want safe streets and neighborhoods and to vote for people who they believe will help put more money in their pockets. While Democratic policies can adequately address those issues, our messaging mechanism clearly cannot.” The pair of Democrats said they were in the process of reaching out to all of the “suburban survivors” of Tuesday night’s elections…
They are calling themselves “suburban survivors.” That’s got to hurt.


hotair--2020-11-04--Wisconsin elections chief: All ballots have now been counted, Biden leads by 20,000+; <span class='r

Wisconsin elections chief: All ballots have now been counted, Biden leads by 20,000+; Update: Team Trump requests recount; Update: CNN says Biden wins WI

I haven ’ t seen an official call from any networks yet .
But if the count ’ s over and one guy is ahead , that would seem to make victory for the other guy … difficult .
Ed noted earlier that the Trump campaign is already talking recount in Wisconsin , but Trump ally Scott Walker is skeptical .
I noted in the last post that certain “ Trumpers of convenience ” like Marco Rubio have already begun to gently counterprogram his claims that the election is being stolen .
Walker seems to be doing something similar , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the result than playing Trump ’ s game of trying to drag the process out in order to delegitimize a possible Biden victory .
Weird but true : We may be headed for a bizarro version of 2016 in which one candidate finishes with 306 electoral votes via a series of cliffhanger wins in the Rust Belt and other battlegrounds , except this time Trump loses instead of wins .
Data nerds who are paying attention to where votes are still outstanding think Biden has the inside track in Michigan due to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nevada is *very* close and Trump isn ’ t out of the running there yet , but : Jon Ralston also thinks Biden is slightly favored due to the outstanding mail vote : Pennsylvania is the big one , but it ’ s the ultimate “ blue shift ” state .
All the Trump-heavy same-day votes are in , most of the Biden-heavy mail ballots are now being counted .
Should Biden have enough of those to overtake Trump ?
Nate Cohn thinks so : President Trump leads by nearly 700,000 votes in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Mr. Biden ’ s chances depend on whether he can win a large percentage of the more than 1.4 million absentee ballots that remain to be counted .
So far , Mr. Biden has won absentee voters in Pennsylvania , 78 percent to 21 percent , according to the Secretary of State ’ s office .
The results comport with the findings of pre-election surveys and an analysis of absentee ballot requests , which all indicated that Mr. Biden held an overwhelming lead among absentee voters .
If Mr. Biden won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by such a large margin , he would net around 800,000 votes — enough to overcome his deficit statewide .
Biden could theoretically net more than 800,000 , Cohn adds , because most of the remaining ballots come from areas that trend a little bluer than the state does in the aggregate .
What about Georgia , though ?
I flagged that state last night as the likeliest to flip among the three southern battlegrounds ( Florida and Texas being the other two ) but it was leaning Trump until the wee hours @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Much of the remaining vote there consists of mail ballots from blue counties like Fulton and Gwinnett : Probably the best news for Trump this morning is that Arizona may not yet be off the board : If Biden were to hold on in the Rust Belt , Georgia , and Arizona , and if we assume Trump holds on in North Carolina , we ’ d have a … 306-232 election , precisely the outcome we had in 2016 , only this time the Democrat wins .
Even if we assume Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arizona , he ’ d still need either Michigan or Pennsylvania to come through for him .
Otherwise it ’ s a 279-259 Biden win .
Here ’ s how Team Trump sees the race as of noon… Is there any scenario in which Nevada is decisive , by the way ?
Trump making it very tight there is a fascinating subplot but I don ’ t think winning it changes the equation for him if he ’ s swept in the Rust Belt , even if he takes all of the other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with this , in which the Biden campaign is now claiming it ’ s “ won the election.
” That ’ s irresponsible horsesh*t in the same way Trump ’ s speech last night was .
Can we not have a single admirable civic figure for our benighted country to look to ?
Update : I just realized that if Team Trump gets what it ’ s hoping for — Pennsylvania , Georgia , and Arizona — and if Biden holds on in Nevada , we ’ ll have a 280-258 win for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before the votes were counted was Trump 279 , Biden 259 .
Update : The campaign wants a recount in Wisconsin , which is fine and fair , although they shouldn ’ t get their hopes up about the outcome per Walker ’ s tweet .
Trump is now encouraging the counting , or recounting , of ballots in states where he ’ s behind and trying to manufacture reasons for why the ongoing counting in states where he ’ s ahead is illegitimate .
As always , his ethics are purely situational @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pretense to the contrary .
Update : And here ’ s the projection now .
Lotta tension over Pennsylvania and Arizona at this hour .

I haven’t seen an official call from any networks yet. But if the count’s over and one guy is ahead, that would seem to make victory for the other guy … difficult.
BREAKING Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator says on @NBCNews: “All of the ballots have been counted.” Joe Biden has won Wisconsin by 20,697 votes. — Chris D. Jackson (@ChrisDJackson) November 4, 2020
Ed noted earlier that the Trump campaign is already talking recount in Wisconsin, but Trump ally Scott Walker is skeptical. I noted in the last post that certain “Trumpers of convenience” like Marco Rubio have already begun to gently counterprogram his claims that the election is being stolen. Walker seems to be doing something similar, focusing more on shoring up public confidence in the result than playing Trump’s game of trying to drag the process out in order to delegitimize a possible Biden victory.
After recount in 2011 race for WI Supreme Court, there was a swing of 300 votes. After recount in 2016 Presidential race in WI, @realDonaldTrump numbers went up by 131. As I said, 20,000 is a high hurdle. #Election2020 https://t.co/CEr82eiCWH — Scott Walker (@ScottWalker) November 4, 2020
Weird but true: We may be headed for a bizarro version of 2016 in which one candidate finishes with 306 electoral votes via a series of cliffhanger wins in the Rust Belt and other battlegrounds, except this time Trump loses instead of wins. Data nerds who are paying attention to where votes are still outstanding think Biden has the inside track in Michigan due to the slow count in Democrat-heavy Detroit. Nevada is *very* close and Trump isn’t out of the running there yet, but:
So, what's left in Nevada is mail and provisionals. No more in-person votes. That's likely good news for Democrats, unless the late-arriving mail ballots were MUCH redder than the early-arriving ones. https://t.co/oTtD08cxAx — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
Jon Ralston also thinks Biden is slightly favored due to the outstanding mail vote:
But the Republicans surely thought they could have a lead on Election Night so Trump could declare victory because they know what the mail ballots hold: Good news for Dems. So how many are left? I'll know soon, but at least 50-60K in Clark, I think. Those should tilt heavy D. — Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2020
Pennsylvania is the big one, but it’s the ultimate “blue shift” state. All the Trump-heavy same-day votes are in, most of the Biden-heavy mail ballots are now being counted. Should Biden have enough of those to overtake Trump? Nate Cohn thinks so:
President Trump leads by nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania as of 5 a.m. on Wednesday, and Mr. Biden’s chances depend on whether he can win a large percentage of the more than 1.4 million absentee ballots that remain to be counted. So far, Mr. Biden has won absentee voters in Pennsylvania, 78 percent to 21 percent, according to the Secretary of State’s office. The results comport with the findings of pre-election surveys and an analysis of absentee ballot requests, which all indicated that Mr. Biden held an overwhelming lead among absentee voters. If Mr. Biden won the more than 1.4 million absentee votes by such a large margin, he would net around 800,000 votes — enough to overcome his deficit statewide.
Biden could theoretically net more than 800,000, Cohn adds, because most of the remaining ballots come from areas that trend a little bluer than the state does in the aggregate.
What about Georgia, though? I flagged that state last night as the likeliest to flip among the three southern battlegrounds (Florida and Texas being the other two) but it was leaning Trump until the wee hours. Then Biden closed the gap. Much of the remaining vote there consists of mail ballots from blue counties like Fulton and Gwinnett:
And we have a very clear picture in Georgia, thanks to the needle’s analysis of the vote by precinct x method–stipulating that there aren’t any errors in the GA county data. There’s a lot of heavily Dem vote in the Atlanta area left. It’s enough to make Biden a narrow favorite — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020
Trump's claim to have won Georgia is highly dubious. No network has called it. He's only ahead by 2.5 points there, and the outstanding votes are mostly mail votes in very blue counties, likely very Democratic. Biden may even be a slight favorite there. https://t.co/dtj6h9jFEx — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
Probably the best news for Trump this morning is that Arizona may not yet be off the board:
The latest plot twist comes from Arizona, which had reportedly counted 95%+ of its votes. NYT notes that "due to an error in an Edison Research data feed of results … the actual estimate is that 86% of the vote has been counted." — Jeff Dufour (@dcdufour) November 4, 2020
If Biden were to hold on in the Rust Belt, Georgia, and Arizona, and if we assume Trump holds on in North Carolina, we’d have a … 306-232 election, precisely the outcome we had in 2016, only this time the Democrat wins. Even if we assume Trump holds Georgia and comes back to take Arizona, he’d still need either Michigan or Pennsylvania to come through for him. Otherwise it’s a 279-259 Biden win. Here’s how Team Trump sees the race as of noon…
From working phones – Multiple sources close to President Trump believe they have at least one clear but complicated path to re- election. Sources say Trump would need to hold Pennsylvania, Georgia and pull off a win in Arizona but admit it is tough to me & @KFaulders — John Santucci (@Santucci) November 4, 2020
…and here’s how Team Biden sees it:
Biden campaign expectations: MICH: Win, results today WISC: Win, results today NEVADA: Win, results tomorrow PENNSYLVANIA: 1.4m outstanding ballots that will overcome 600k ballot deficit. Results tomorrow GEORGIA: Tossup; results today NC: Leaning Trump; results in few days — Matt Viser (@mviser) November 4, 2020
Is there any scenario in which Nevada is decisive, by the way? Trump making it very tight there is a fascinating subplot but I don’t think winning it changes the equation for him if he’s swept in the Rust Belt, even if he takes all of the other toss-ups.
I’ll leave you with this, in which the Biden campaign is now claiming it’s “won the election.” That’s irresponsible horsesh*t in the same way Trump’s speech last night was. Can we not have a single admirable civic figure for our benighted country to look to?
Biden lawyer Bob Bauer: "We're winning the election. We’ve won the election. And we're going to defend that election.” — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 4, 2020
Update: I just realized that if Team Trump gets what it’s hoping for — Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona — and if Biden holds on in Nevada, we’ll have a 280-258 win for the president. My prediction last night before the votes were counted was Trump 279, Biden 259.
Update: The campaign wants a recount in Wisconsin, which is fine and fair, although they shouldn’t get their hopes up about the outcome per Walker’s tweet. Trump is now encouraging the counting, or recounting, of ballots in states where he’s behind and trying to manufacture reasons for why the ongoing counting in states where he’s ahead is illegitimate. As always, his ethics are purely situational and there’s not even a pretense to the contrary.
Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien says the campaign will request a recount in Wisconsin. pic.twitter.com/g516W283eH — Daniel Strauss (@DanielStrauss4) November 4, 2020
Update: And here’s the projection now. Lotta tension over Pennsylvania and Arizona at this hour.