hotair--2020-04-26--Kim Jong-un talks! Sort of.

Kim Jong-un talks! Sort of.

He sent a message giving his appreciation to people building a complex at his father ’ s hometown on the border of China although state radio didn ’ t say anything about the 36-year-old ’ s health .
South Korea ’ s Yonhap News Agency reported no photos of Kim have been published since his vanishing on April 11th amid speculation heart problems either felled or left him comatose .
South Korea ’ s official stance is Kim remains in the realm of the living .
South Korean President Moon Jae-in ’ s foreign policy adviser sent a statement to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and well .
He has been staying in the Wonsan area since April 13 .
No suspicious movements have so far been detected.
” The date of April 13th is interesting since 38 North , the Stimson Center offshoot focusing on North Korea , reported Kim ’ s train made off and on appearances in Wonsan since at least April 21st , not the 13th .
A train probably belonging to Kim Jong Un has been parked at the Leadership Railway Station servicing his Wonsan compound since at least April 21 , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s presence does not prove the whereabouts of the North Korean leader or indicate anything about his health , but it does lend weight to reports that Kim is staying at an elite area on the country ’ s eastern coast .
The approximately 250-meter long train , although partially covered by the station ’ s roof , can be seen at a railway station reserved for use by the Kim family .
It was not present on April 15 but was present on both April 21 and 23 .
Imagery indicates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and was still present on April 23 , when it appeared to be repositioned for departure .
However , there was no indication when that departure might take place .
South Korea possesses better intelligence than 38 North , which relies completely on satellite imagery , although the latter broke news about North Korea ’ s increased nuclear activities in 2016 .
It ’ s important to note Kim enjoys disappearing acts , possibly to make sure his name remains on the lips of international observers .
Kim isn ’ t necessarily the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ [ N ] ot all speculation has proven to be false .
When he was absent from public for about a month in 2014 , speculation arose about his health and a political crisis in the secretive state .
He later reemerged with a cane and a limp reportedly after having a cyst removed from his ankle .
The 36-year-old leader is known to have various health problems apparently caused by obesity and heavy smoking .
The best guess regarding Kim is he likely did have some sort of health issue requiring him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looked a bit peaked during his last known public appearance a few days before his disappearance .
Perhaps he needed surgery or will need a procedure in the future hence the Reuters report of Chinese doctors visiting North Korea .
Or maybe he has coronavirus or recently recovered from it .
What comes next , if Kim dies or is dead , is anyone ’ s guess .
Jazz looked at the potential future outlooks yesterday including North Korea becoming more of a vassal state to China .
This brings back memories of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ video game from LucasArts involving the death of the North Korea leader and the spiraling international situation involving the Allied Nations ( aka the UN ) , South Korea , China , and Russian Mafia .
At the moment , though , Kim Jong-un is alive and doing well according to South Korea .
Whether he will be in the future depends on what little drops of information seep out of his country .

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un is ah-live! Maybe.
He sent a message giving his appreciation to people building a complex at his father’s hometown on the border of China although state radio didn’t say anything about the 36-year-old’s health. South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported no photos of Kim have been published since his vanishing on April 11th amid speculation heart problems either felled or left him comatose.
South Korea’s official stance is Kim remains in the realm of the living. South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s foreign policy adviser sent a statement to American media saying Kim is “alive and well. He has been staying in the Wonsan area since April 13. No suspicious movements have so far been detected.”
The date of April 13th is interesting since 38 North, the Stimson Center offshoot focusing on North Korea, reported Kim’s train made off and on appearances in Wonsan since at least April 21st, not the 13th.
A train probably belonging to Kim Jong Un has been parked at the Leadership Railway Station servicing his Wonsan compound since at least April 21, according to commercial satellite imagery. The train’s presence does not prove the whereabouts of the North Korean leader or indicate anything about his health, but it does lend weight to reports that Kim is staying at an elite area on the country’s eastern coast. The approximately 250-meter long train, although partially covered by the station’s roof, can be seen at a railway station reserved for use by the Kim family. It was not present on April 15 but was present on both April 21 and 23. Imagery indicates the train arrived sometime before April 21 and was still present on April 23, when it appeared to be repositioned for departure. However, there was no indication when that departure might take place.
South Korea possesses better intelligence than 38 North, which relies completely on satellite imagery, although the latter broke news about North Korea’s increased nuclear activities in 2016.
It’s important to note Kim enjoys disappearing acts, possibly to make sure his name remains on the lips of international observers. Kim isn’t necessarily the healthiest of people. Via Yonhap:
[N]ot all speculation has proven to be false. When he was absent from public for about a month in 2014, speculation arose about his health and a political crisis in the secretive state. He later reemerged with a cane and a limp reportedly after having a cyst removed from his ankle. The 36-year-old leader is known to have various health problems apparently caused by obesity and heavy smoking.
The best guess regarding Kim is he likely did have some sort of health issue requiring him to convalesce for a bit. Kim looked a bit peaked during his last known public appearance a few days before his disappearance. Perhaps he needed surgery or will need a procedure in the future hence the Reuters report of Chinese doctors visiting North Korea. Or maybe he has coronavirus or recently recovered from it.
What comes next, if Kim dies or is dead, is anyone’s guess. Jazz looked at the potential future outlooks yesterday including North Korea becoming more of a vassal state to China. This brings back memories of the 2005 Mercenaries: Playground of Destruction video game from LucasArts involving the death of the North Korea leader and the spiraling international situation involving the Allied Nations (aka the UN), South Korea, China, and Russian Mafia.
The canon ending? China takes over North Korea.
At the moment, though, Kim Jong-un is alive and doing well according to South Korea. Whether he will be in the future depends on what little drops of information seep out of his country.


hotair--2020-04-26--Phone tracking snoops detect "quarantine fatigue"

Several states have either already begun to open back up for business ( South Carolina , Georgia ) or are preparing to do so this week ( Colorado ) .
The debate is still raging over whether or not this is too soon , just the right time , or even too late to rescue the economy .
But in the end , it ’ s going to be the people themselves who determine when they can ’ t take the lockdowns anymore and begin heading out to rejoin the world .
Now we know that the patience of some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ re preemptively leaving their homes in increasing numbers .
How do we know ?
Some of the usual suspects have been tracking your movements by monitoring your phones ’ location data , and they ’ re calling this emerging trend “ quarantine fatigue.
” ( Stamford Advocate ) Researchers tracking smartphone data say they recently made a disturbing discovery : For the first time since states began implementing stay-at-home orders in mid-March to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus , Americans are staying home less .
The nationwide shift during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slight .
However , any loss of momentum , particularly when stay-in-place orders remain in effect across most of the country , has some public health experts worried about “ quarantine fatigue.
” Any increase in travel , they say , is premature when staying home remains the most effective way to limit the spread of the virus until widespread testing and contact tracing become available… Because the study ’ s sample size is so large – more than 100 million cellphones observed monthly – even slight changes are statistically significant , [ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Institute ] said .
We ’ re not talking about a massive shift in the percentages here .
The group conducting this tracking is the Maryland Transportation Institute at the University of Maryland .
The criteria they use is to determine how many times per day or week individuals were traveling more than one mile from their home location .
For the week ending April 17th , they detected a decrease from 33 percent to 31 percent of people remaining within one mile of their home as compared to the previous week .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of two percent in any survey and write it off as statistical noise that falls within the margin of error , but not in this case .
That ’ s why I included their sample size in the excerpt above .
The way they find out how often people are leaving their homes is by monitoring location data from various apps on their phones .
And their sample size is 100 million phones that are being tracked ?
Seriously ?
The current estimated number of smartphone users in the United States is 275.66 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is accessing more than one-third of the phones in the country and monitoring people ’ s movements .
How do they do it ?
It turns out that it ’ s really not difficult at all .
Your wireless carriers are selling your location data in real-time without even telling you .
As recently as a few months ago , companies like LocationSmart and Zumigo were buying and selling user location data from AT & T , Verizon , T-Mobile , and Sprint , among others .
And the data was solid enough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a reporter working on the story by knowing the reporter ’ s phone number and paying $ 300 .
The carriers also sell our location data in far larger quantities to businesses that want to be able to craft targeted advertising to consumers .
Knowing where and how often you go can tell them a lot about what sort of products you might like to buy .
So I ’ m probably far less concerned about organizations tracking our social distancing patterns than all the rest of the spying going on , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So if we assume that their 31 % number is accurate , does that mean that people are suffering from “ quarantine fatigue ” and ignoring the government ’ s warnings ?
Probably not .
If you stop to think about it , less than one-third of all people isn ’ t a very good compliance rate to begin with .
And any minor shifts can likely be accounted for by the fact that more state governments were already talking about opening society back up .

Several states have either already begun to open back up for business (South Carolina, Georgia) or are preparing to do so this week (Colorado). The debate is still raging over whether or not this is too soon, just the right time, or even too late to rescue the economy. But in the end, it’s going to be the people themselves who determine when they can’t take the lockdowns anymore and begin heading out to rejoin the world. Now we know that the patience of some folks has just about worn out and they’re preemptively leaving their homes in increasing numbers. How do we know? Some of the usual suspects have been tracking your movements by monitoring your phones’ location data, and they’re calling this emerging trend “quarantine fatigue.” (Stamford Advocate)
Researchers tracking smartphone data say they recently made a disturbing discovery: For the first time since states began implementing stay-at-home orders in mid-March to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus, Americans are staying home less. The nationwide shift during the week of April 13 was relatively slight. However, any loss of momentum, particularly when stay-in-place orders remain in effect across most of the country, has some public health experts worried about “quarantine fatigue.” Any increase in travel, they say, is premature when staying home remains the most effective way to limit the spread of the virus until widespread testing and contact tracing become available… Because the study’s sample size is so large – more than 100 million cellphones observed monthly – even slight changes are statistically significant, [Lei Zhang, of the Maryland Transportation Institute] said.
We’re not talking about a massive shift in the percentages here. The group conducting this tracking is the Maryland Transportation Institute at the University of Maryland. The criteria they use is to determine how many times per day or week individuals were traveling more than one mile from their home location. For the week ending April 17th, they detected a decrease from 33 percent to 31 percent of people remaining within one mile of their home as compared to the previous week.
Normally we would look at a shift of two percent in any survey and write it off as statistical noise that falls within the margin of error, but not in this case. That’s why I included their sample size in the excerpt above. The way they find out how often people are leaving their homes is by monitoring location data from various apps on their phones. And their sample size is 100 million phones that are being tracked? Seriously?
The current estimated number of smartphone users in the United States is 275.66 million. That means that this group is accessing more than one-third of the phones in the country and monitoring people’s movements.
How do they do it? It turns out that it’s really not difficult at all. Your wireless carriers are selling your location data in real-time without even telling you. As recently as a few months ago, companies like LocationSmart and Zumigo were buying and selling user location data from AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint, among others. And the data was solid enough for a bounty hunter to track down a reporter working on the story by knowing the reporter’s phone number and paying $300.
The carriers also sell our location data in far larger quantities to businesses that want to be able to craft targeted advertising to consumers. Knowing where and how often you go can tell them a lot about what sort of products you might like to buy. So I’m probably far less concerned about organizations tracking our social distancing patterns than all the rest of the spying going on, but it’s still a concern.
So if we assume that their 31% number is accurate, does that mean that people are suffering from “quarantine fatigue” and ignoring the government’s warnings? Probably not. If you stop to think about it, less than one-third of all people isn’t a very good compliance rate to begin with. And any minor shifts can likely be accounted for by the fact that more state governments were already talking about opening society back up.


hotair--2020-04-26--Study of infected prison inmates in four states finds ... 96% are asymptomatic

Every study of asymptomatic carriers is bugged by the same question .
How many are asymptomatic and how many are pre-symptomatic ?
How many ended up never developing symptoms during the course of their illness and how many happened to not be experiencing symptoms on the day they were tested but did so later ?
A prison study would be a perfect candidate for that sort of retrospective analysis since the sample isn ’ t going anywhere .
A month from now , go back to all the asymptomatic prisoners and find out how many never had a fever , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so on after they were tested .
Assuming 96 percent ends up being accurate , though , that ’ s a mind-boggling , bombshell number , literally more than twice the percentage of estimated asymptomatics I ’ ve run across in reading about other populations .
And I don ’ t mean city populations ; I mean “ captive ” populations , forced into close quarters in confined spaces like prisoners are .
As of three days ago “ about 50 percent ” of sailors on the USS Theodore Roosevelt who ’ d @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Diamond Princess , the number of asymptomatics was similar , 46.5 percent .
Prisons are seeing twice that rate , it seems .
Why ?
Also mind-boggling is the number of prisoners who ’ ve tested positive , period .
At the Marion Correctional Institution in Ohio , 88 percent of the population was infected .
At prisons in Michigan and North Carolina , well over half of those tested were positive .
Across prison systems in four states , per the numbers provided below , 70 percent had COVID-19 .
The virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — but without much of a human toll , thankfully .
If you ’ re still clinging to the Oxford model ’ s theory that much of the world has already been infected without knowing it despite the discouraging news from NYC a few days ago , these prison numbers are the most heartening news you ’ ve had in weeks .
In four state prison systems — Arkansas , North Carolina , Ohio and Virginia — 96 % of 3,277 inmates who tested positive for the coronavirus were asymptomatic , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Reuters .
That ’ s out of 4,693 tests that included results on symptoms… After a recent spike in cases at the Neuse Correctional Institution in Goldsboro , North Carolina , state correctional officials tested all 723 prisoners last week .
Of the 444 who were infected by the virus , 98 % were asymptomatic , the state ’ s department of public safety said .
One inmate has died at the prison .
Similarly , mass testing at two Arkansas prisons — the Cummins Unit in the city of Grady and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Little Rock — found 751 infected inmates , almost all of them asymptomatic , the state corrections department said .
It did not provide the total number of inmates who were tested .
One question arising from those numbers seems like it has an easy answer .
Namely , why are rates of infection so much higher in prisons than they were among the “ captive ” populations on the Theodore Roosevelt and the Diamond Princess ?
Presumably it ’ s due to simple hygiene .
Sailors and cruise passengers enjoy more sanitary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opportunities to keep themselves clean .
The other question is harder to answer : Why is the rate of asymptomatic infection so much higher in prison than on those ships , or across the general population ?
There ’ s no obvious explanation for why prisoners should be more resistant to the disease .
To the contrary , prison living isn ’ t conducive to good health .
Many prisoners are older too , and so they should be more susceptible to serious complications .
And yet — 96 percent asymptomatic .
Let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the assumption that U.S. cities are testing only people who are showing symptoms .
That may be an overstatement but it ’ s probably a mild one since tests are scarce and doctors don ’ t want to waste them on those who are less likely to have the disease .
There are 150,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City ; if the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic carriers there is the same as it is in the prisons described by Reuters — 24 to one — then we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or 43 percent of the city , to have had coronavirus .
The recent antibody tests reported by Andrew Cuomo indicate a number half that amount , 21.2 percent , which means the true ratio is more like 12 to one .
Similarly , the latest antibody testing from Miami-Dade County in Florida finds that six percent there had COVID antibodies in their blood : “ The researchers say they are 95 % certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4 % and 7.9 % of the population , with 6 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are around 11,000 confirmed cases in Miami-Dade ; the prison ratio of 24 to one would lead us to expect 250,000 people or so have had the virus .
In reality , six-percent prevalence in Miami-Dade would mean 165,000 people have had it , a ratio closer to 15 to one .
The problem with guesstimating based on confirmed cases is that different cities are testing at different rates .
The confirmed case count in a city like New York that ’ s testing a lot might be a more accurate reflection of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a city that isn ’ t testing much , where even some symptomatic cases aren ’ t being tested .
It seems like we can safely say that there are *many* more asymptomatic cases than symptomatic ones out there , possibly on the order of 10 to one or better .
But if it ’ s much less than 24 to one , we ’ re left with a mystery as to why so many prisoners are unaffected .
The high rate of asymptomatics in prisons may also mean less for the fatality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in its report that “ In the seven state prison systems conducting mass tests , 49 inmates have died ” bu it doesn ’ t say how many prisoners total have tested positive across those seven states .
If you want to guesstimate 5,000 , that would mean a fatality rate of one percent , in line with some of the grimmer estimates of COVID ’ s deadliness .
If you want to assume 10,000 are positive , that ’ s a fatality rate of 0.5 percent , a number suggested by some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it looks like we ’ re going to overshoot the famous IHME model ’ s forecast of deaths in the U.S. from coronavirus .
A few weeks ago IHME lowered its projections from 80,000 deaths to 60,000 by August 4 , a bit of good news that was seized on by the White House .
In reality we passed 50,000 deaths last night , with five days left to go in April and no signs of a steep drop in the epidemic curve that might sharply reduce daily deaths anytime soon .
IHME @ @ @ @ @ @ @ revised upward to 67,000 , in fact .
Researchers who doubted their methodology are now taking the opportunity to say “ I told you so.
” “ The IHME model is an odd duck in the pool of mathematical models , ” said Gregg Gonsalves , an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Medicine .
“ I fear the White House is looking for data that tells them a story they want to hear , and so they look to the model with the lowest projection of death.
” At the center of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the IHME model ’ s critics say .
The projection makes no attempt to account for the virus ’ defining characteristics , such as how easily it spreads or how long someone can be infected before they show symptoms .
Instead , it relies on data from cities already hit by the coronavirus , including in Italy and China , and matches the U.S. to a similar curve… Privately , two people close to the administration ’ s response effort acknowledged that the death toll is likely to grow into the 70,000 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s assuming there isn ’ t a second wave of outbreaks in the fall .
The director of IHME told Politico that they ’ ll probably revise their death projections upward again soon because they had “ presumed , perhaps naively , that given the magnitude of the epidemic , most states would stick to their social distancing until the end of May ” and that ’ s clearly not going to happen .
As for why their initial forecast was too optimistic , I ’ ll leave you with the short take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ curve ” with which we ’ re all familiar assumes exponential growth upward as the epidemic rages and then a similarly exponential decline as the contagion abates .
That may be how it works when transmission is being curtailed by herd immunity but it ’ s not necessarily how it works when it ’ s being curtailed through sustained social distancing .
In those circumstances the right side of the curve may be really more of a gently sloping downward ramp .
It ’ ll take much longer to reach the bottom @ @ @ @

Every study of asymptomatic carriers is bugged by the same question. How many are asymptomatic and how many are pre-symptomatic? How many ended up never developing symptoms during the course of their illness and how many happened to not be experiencing symptoms on the day they were tested but did so later?
A prison study would be a perfect candidate for that sort of retrospective analysis since the sample isn’t going anywhere. A month from now, go back to all the asymptomatic prisoners and find out how many never had a fever, a cough, trouble breathing, and so on after they were tested.
Assuming 96 percent ends up being accurate, though, that’s a mind-boggling, bombshell number, literally more than twice the percentage of estimated asymptomatics I’ve run across in reading about other populations. And I don’t mean city populations; I mean “captive” populations, forced into close quarters in confined spaces like prisoners are. As of three days ago “about 50 percent” of sailors on the USS Theodore Roosevelt who’d tested positive were asymptomatic. Aboard the Diamond Princess, the number of asymptomatics was similar, 46.5 percent. Prisons are seeing twice that rate, it seems. Why?
Also mind-boggling is the number of prisoners who’ve tested positive, period. At the Marion Correctional Institution in Ohio, 88 percent of the population was infected. At prisons in Michigan and North Carolina, well over half of those tested were positive. Across prison systems in four states, per the numbers provided below, 70 percent had COVID-19. The virus is spreading through these facilities like wildfire — but without much of a human toll, thankfully. If you’re still clinging to the Oxford model’s theory that much of the world has already been infected without knowing it despite the discouraging news from NYC a few days ago, these prison numbers are the most heartening news you’ve had in weeks.
In four state prison systems — Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — 96% of 3,277 inmates who tested positive for the coronavirus were asymptomatic, according to interviews with officials and records reviewed by Reuters. That’s out of 4,693 tests that included results on symptoms… After a recent spike in cases at the Neuse Correctional Institution in Goldsboro, North Carolina, state correctional officials tested all 723 prisoners last week. Of the 444 who were infected by the virus, 98% were asymptomatic, the state’s department of public safety said. One inmate has died at the prison. Similarly, mass testing at two Arkansas prisons — the Cummins Unit in the city of Grady and the Community Correction Center in the state capital Little Rock — found 751 infected inmates, almost all of them asymptomatic, the state corrections department said. It did not provide the total number of inmates who were tested.
One question arising from those numbers seems like it has an easy answer. Namely, why are rates of infection so much higher in prisons than they were among the “captive” populations on the Theodore Roosevelt and the Diamond Princess? Presumably it’s due to simple hygiene. Sailors and cruise passengers enjoy more sanitary conditions than prisoners do, with more opportunities to keep themselves clean. The other question is harder to answer: Why is the rate of asymptomatic infection so much higher in prison than on those ships, or across the general population? There’s no obvious explanation for why prisoners should be more resistant to the disease. To the contrary, prison living isn’t conducive to good health. Many prisoners are older too, and so they should be more susceptible to serious complications. And yet — 96 percent asymptomatic.
Let’s do some math, starting with the assumption that U.S. cities are testing only people who are showing symptoms. That may be an overstatement but it’s probably a mild one since tests are scarce and doctors don’t want to waste them on those who are less likely to have the disease. There are 150,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City; if the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic carriers there is the same as it is in the prisons described by Reuters — 24 to one — then we’d expect 3.6 million New Yorkers, or 43 percent of the city, to have had coronavirus. The recent antibody tests reported by Andrew Cuomo indicate a number half that amount, 21.2 percent, which means the true ratio is more like 12 to one. Similarly, the latest antibody testing from Miami-Dade County in Florida finds that six percent there had COVID antibodies in their blood: “The researchers say they are 95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, with 6% representing the best estimate.” There are around 11,000 confirmed cases in Miami-Dade; the prison ratio of 24 to one would lead us to expect 250,000 people or so have had the virus. In reality, six-percent prevalence in Miami-Dade would mean 165,000 people have had it, a ratio closer to 15 to one.
The problem with guesstimating based on confirmed cases is that different cities are testing at different rates. The confirmed case count in a city like New York that’s testing a lot might be a more accurate reflection of symptomatic cases than the case count in a city that isn’t testing much, where even some symptomatic cases aren’t being tested. It seems like we can safely say that there are *many* more asymptomatic cases than symptomatic ones out there, possibly on the order of 10 to one or better. But if it’s much less than 24 to one, we’re left with a mystery as to why so many prisoners are unaffected.
The high rate of asymptomatics in prisons may also mean less for the fatality rate than we think. Reuters notes in its report that “In the seven state prison systems conducting mass tests, 49 inmates have died” bu it doesn’t say how many prisoners total have tested positive across those seven states. If you want to guesstimate 5,000, that would mean a fatality rate of one percent, in line with some of the grimmer estimates of COVID’s deadliness. If you want to assume 10,000 are positive, that’s a fatality rate of 0.5 percent, a number suggested by some experts.
Speaking of grim estimates, it looks like we’re going to overshoot the famous IHME model’s forecast of deaths in the U.S. from coronavirus. A few weeks ago IHME lowered its projections from 80,000 deaths to 60,000 by August 4, a bit of good news that was seized on by the White House. In reality we passed 50,000 deaths last night, with five days left to go in April and no signs of a steep drop in the epidemic curve that might sharply reduce daily deaths anytime soon. IHME’s death projections have now been revised upward to 67,000, in fact. Researchers who doubted their methodology are now taking the opportunity to say “I told you so.”
“The IHME model is an odd duck in the pool of mathematical models,” said Gregg Gonsalves, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Medicine. “I fear the White House is looking for data that tells them a story they want to hear, and so they look to the model with the lowest projection of death.” At the center of those concerns is a key element, the IHME model’s critics say. The projection makes no attempt to account for the virus’ defining characteristics, such as how easily it spreads or how long someone can be infected before they show symptoms. Instead, it relies on data from cities already hit by the coronavirus, including in Italy and China, and matches the U.S. to a similar curve… Privately, two people close to the administration’s response effort acknowledged that the death toll is likely to grow into the 70,000 and perhaps 80,000 range — and that’s assuming there isn’t a second wave of outbreaks in the fall.
The director of IHME told Politico that they’ll probably revise their death projections upward again soon because they had “presumed, perhaps naively, that given the magnitude of the epidemic, most states would stick to their social distancing until the end of May” and that’s clearly not going to happen. As for why their initial forecast was too optimistic, I’ll leave you with the short take below from Scott Gottlieb. The famous “curve” with which we’re all familiar assumes exponential growth upward as the epidemic rages and then a similarly exponential decline as the contagion abates. That may be how it works when transmission is being curtailed by herd immunity but it’s not necessarily how it works when it’s being curtailed through sustained social distancing. In those circumstances the right side of the curve may be really more of a gently sloping downward ramp. It’ll take much longer to reach the bottom than we hoped.
Some models like closely watched IHME predict a symmetric epidemic curve, where slope of decline is proportional to slope of the rise. That was mostly the case in China, but not in Italy. And it won't be the case in U.S. Our decline will be far more gradual, similar to Italy. 2/n pic.twitter.com/PjQ5bQ4RNs — Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) April 26, 2020


hotair--2020-04-26--Brad Pitt makes Dr. Fauci's dream come true on SNL

We ’ ve seen actor Brad Pitt made up to look like an old man .
He did so in the movie The Curious Case of Benjamin Button .
During the cold open of Saturday Night Live Pitt wore a wig and presented himself as Dr. Anthony Fauci .
Fauci ’ s wish that Brad Pitt plays him on a show like SNL came true .
Just a couple of weeks ago , CNN ’ s Alisyn Camarota delivered one of her hard-hitting interviews with Fauci ( yes , that ’ s sarcasm ) and asked the 79-year-old medical scientist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did a skit using him as a character – Ben Stiller or Brad Pitt .
He chose Pitt .
Pitt was once named People magazine ’ s Sexiest Man of the Year , after all .
Fauci has a healthy ego and didn ’ t even hesitate with his answer .
And , just like that , two weeks later it happens .
In the show ’ s second “ At Home ” episode due to the coronavirus pandemic , the cast members and guests performed from their own homes instead of in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is usually a hit or miss exercise in comedic expression but Saturday the show went with a scornful , sarcastic fact check-style dialogue from Brad Pitt .
Pitt sat behind a desk as he critiqued statements President Trump has made during coronavirus task force press briefings .
The skit was a mix of real video of the president and Pitt ’ s reactions as Fauci .
As he began to explain what President Trump “ was trying to say ” , he delivered a funny statement , unintentionally bringing a little humor to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And remember , let ’ s all keep an open mind.
” There is no such thing as an open mind among the cast of SNL or most of its viewers when it comes to President Trump .
The NBC late-night sketch comedy show cut in real-world footage of Donald Trump ’ s speeches about coronavirus , starting with his claim that he had had some great meetings and there would be a vaccine “ relatively soon.
” To this , Pitt as Fauci clarified that “ relatively soon is an interesting phrase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Earth ?
Sure , the vaccine is going to come real fast .
But if you were to tell a friend , ‘ I ’ ll be over relatively soon ’ and then showed up a year and a half later , well , your friend may be relatively pissed off.
” He also had “ a couple of things ” to say about the state of tests .
First , he said he didn ’ t know if he would describe the test as “ beautiful — unless your idea of ‘ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tickle your brain.
” Additionally , he wanted to point out that “ almost no one can get a test.
” About that “ almost no one can get a test ” statement – plenty of folks in the entertainment industry seem to be able to get tested while the regular folks can ’ t .
Starting with Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson , lots of celebrities have announced on social media the results of their tests .
And , of course the president ’ s remarks about light therapy and disinfectants were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bit , Pitt took off the wig and thanked Fauci for his “ calm and clarity during this unnerving time.
” He also thanked medical workers and first responders for their work .
It is interesting that rumors of Dr. Fauci ’ s termination were touched on .
That rumor has been going around because Fauci sometimes answers medical questions differently than statements delivered by Trump .
The president even re-tweeted a tweet with the hashtag # FireFauci once .
But , so far , Trump denies that Fauci will be fired @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the roughly 50 press conferences on the health crisis so far , Fauci had only missed a handful .
But now , for the first time since regular press conferences began on the topic , Fauci was only present for one of seven briefings this week .
While Fauci gave media interviews throughout the week , his absence at the podium Friday was notable given the president ’ s controversial remarks a day earlier about using light and disinfectants to possibly treat the deadly respiratory illness .
And though Fauci regularly shares his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ administration official suggested there ’ s a preference that Fauci do more of that behind closed doors so it doesn ’ t appear he ’ s on such a different page from the president .
“ You are here in a certain role , you ’ ve got to give advice privately , ” this official said .
Remember back in the day when Saturday Night Live was funny ?
The original cast has been unmatched by later casts .
The show is now in its 45th season .
It is well past @ @ @

We’ve seen actor Brad Pitt made up to look like an old man. He did so in the movie The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. During the cold open of Saturday Night Live Pitt wore a wig and presented himself as Dr. Anthony Fauci.
Fauci’s wish that Brad Pitt plays him on a show like SNL came true. Just a couple of weeks ago, CNN’s Alisyn Camarota delivered one of her hard-hitting interviews with Fauci (yes, that’s sarcasm) and asked the 79-year-old medical scientist which actor he would choose if SNL did a skit using him as a character – Ben Stiller or Brad Pitt. He chose Pitt. Pitt was once named People magazine’s Sexiest Man of the Year, after all. Fauci has a healthy ego and didn’t even hesitate with his answer. And, just like that, two weeks later it happens.
In the show’s second “At Home” episode due to the coronavirus pandemic, the cast members and guests performed from their own homes instead of in the studio together. The cold open is usually a hit or miss exercise in comedic expression but Saturday the show went with a scornful, sarcastic fact check-style dialogue from Brad Pitt. Pitt sat behind a desk as he critiqued statements President Trump has made during coronavirus task force press briefings. The skit was a mix of real video of the president and Pitt’s reactions as Fauci. As he began to explain what President Trump “was trying to say”, he delivered a funny statement, unintentionally bringing a little humor to the skit when he said, “And remember, let’s all keep an open mind.” There is no such thing as an open mind among the cast of SNL or most of its viewers when it comes to President Trump.
The NBC late-night sketch comedy show cut in real-world footage of Donald Trump’s speeches about coronavirus, starting with his claim that he had had some great meetings and there would be a vaccine “relatively soon.” To this, Pitt as Fauci clarified that “relatively soon is an interesting phrase. Relative to the entire history of Earth? Sure, the vaccine is going to come real fast. But if you were to tell a friend, ‘I’ll be over relatively soon’ and then showed up a year and a half later, well, your friend may be relatively pissed off.” He also had “a couple of things” to say about the state of tests. First, he said he didn’t know if he would describe the test as “beautiful — unless your idea of ‘beautiful’ is having a cotton swab tickle your brain.” Additionally, he wanted to point out that “almost no one can get a test.”
About that “almost no one can get a test” statement – plenty of folks in the entertainment industry seem to be able to get tested while the regular folks can’t. Starting with Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson, lots of celebrities have announced on social media the results of their tests.
And, of course the president’s remarks about light therapy and disinfectants were brought up.
Pitt as Fauci had no verbal response to Trump’s musings about injecting disinfectant to “knock out” the virus, just a dumbfounded look. And he facepalmed — even though he knew he “shouldn’t be touching [his] face” at the idea that you could stop the virus by hitting the body with light.
At the end of the bit, Pitt took off the wig and thanked Fauci for his “calm and clarity during this unnerving time.” He also thanked medical workers and first responders for their work.
It is interesting that rumors of Dr. Fauci’s termination were touched on. That rumor has been going around because Fauci sometimes answers medical questions differently than statements delivered by Trump. The president even re-tweeted a tweet with the hashtag #FireFauci once. But, so far, Trump denies that Fauci will be fired from the coronavirus task force.
Of the roughly 50 press conferences on the health crisis so far, Fauci had only missed a handful. But now, for the first time since regular press conferences began on the topic, Fauci was only present for one of seven briefings this week. While Fauci gave media interviews throughout the week, his absence at the podium Friday was notable given the president’s controversial remarks a day earlier about using light and disinfectants to possibly treat the deadly respiratory illness. And though Fauci regularly shares his decades-long infectious disease knowledge publicly, one administration official suggested there’s a preference that Fauci do more of that behind closed doors so it doesn’t appear he’s on such a different page from the president. “You are here in a certain role, you’ve got to give advice privately,” this official said.
Remember back in the day when Saturday Night Live was funny? The original cast has been unmatched by later casts. The show is now in its 45th season. It is well past its prime.


hotair--2020-04-26--Broken hope and breaking bread: Sunday reflection

That very day , the first day of the week , two of Jesus ’ disciples were going to a village seven miles from Jerusalem called Emmaus , and they were conversing about all the things that had occurred .
And it happened that while they were conversing and debating , Jesus himself drew near and walked with them , but their eyes were prevented from recognizing him .
He asked them , “ What are you discussing as you walk along ?
” They stopped , looking downcast .
One of them , named Cleopas , said to him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only visitor to Jerusalem who does not know of the things that have taken place there in these days ?
” And he replied to them , “ What sort of things ?
” They said to him , “ The things that happened to Jesus the Nazarene , who was a prophet mighty in deed and word before God and all the people , how our chief priests and rulers both handed him over to a sentence of death and crucified him .
But we were hoping that he would be the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all this , it is now the third day since this took place .
Some women from our group , however , have astounded us : they were at the tomb early in the morning and did not find his body ; they came back and reported that they had indeed seen a vision of angels who announced that he was alive .
Then some of those with us went to the tomb and found things just as the women had described , but him they did not see.
” And he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ foolish you are !
How slow of heart to believe all that the prophets spoke !
Was it not necessary that the Christ should suffer these things and enter into his glory ?
” Then beginning with Moses and all the prophets , he interpreted to them what referred to him in all the Scriptures .
As they approached the village to which they were going , he gave the impression that he was going on farther .
But they urged him , “ Stay with us , for it is nearly evening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So he went in to stay with them .
And it happened that , while he was with them at table , he took bread , said the blessing , broke it , and gave it to them .
With that their eyes were opened and they recognized him , but he vanished from their sight .
Then they said to each other , “ Were not our hearts burning within us while he spoke to us on the way and opened the Scriptures to us ?
” So they set out at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ found gathered together the eleven and those with them who were saying , “ The Lord has truly been raised and has appeared to Simon !
” Then the two recounted what had taken place on the way and how he was made known to them in the breaking of bread .
How many times do we hear of the road or the journey throughout our literary history ?
Being a fan of Lord of the Rings , it ’ s tough not to draw that parallel here , in which a walk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to triumph .
It ’ s a common theme , and it even has a scriptural father — the story of Exodus , when the Israelites walk out of slavery in Egypt and spend forty years in despair and frustration to finally find their home in the Promised Land .
And these days , it seems as though we are all on a road that wends through despair , rebellion , and a loss of faith .
The pandemic has upended everything we know about our lives — many have lost their jobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and every one of us has lost our sense of normalcy and equilibrium .
We have been forced to walk new and unfamiliar roads , and the things we thought we could rely on have been stripped away , at least temporarily , while we try to find our way to the end of a trip we never wanted to take in the first place .
We see this same theme in today ’ s Gospel reading about the road to Emmaus .
Two disciples of Christ are leaving Jerusalem in despair , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ crucifixion .
They are clearly lost , spiritually if not temporally , having expected a much different reality from Jesus ’ ministry than an ignominious death on a cross .
They expected Jesus to “ redeem Israel ” in the manner in which Judeans of that age demanded of a messiah — a restoration of a temporal kingdom in our world and an ejection of the occupiers .
This road to Emmaus parallels Exodus , at least in this manner — it is about human expectations failing to grasp the Lord ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ faith in His goodness , at least momentarily .
It is a story about the movement from closeness to the Lord , then into despair , and eventually to faith and then to joy .
This not only parallels the story of the Israelites in Exodus , but the road to Emmaus also encapsulates the whole history of salvation .
Despair has always been with us , because our predilection for original sin has always been with us .
Our focus on control in this world and our inability to secure it for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the expectations that we can permanently order things to our will .
But even so , the Lord has also always been with us , even when we ignore Him and insist on trusting only in ourselves .
Ever since the fall of Adam , the Lord has called us to return to Him .
The Old Testament is filled with His call to choose Him over the material world , which is part of the Lord ’ s good Creation but is a spiritual dead end , so to speak .
Over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us through prophets to put aside the material to focus on the spiritual , especially when He establishes Israel as a nation of priests to bring all nations to Jerusalem for conversion to the Word of God .
Over and over again , we choose to defy Him and put our trust in the grasp and control of the material .
And over and over again , the result is a “ road trip ” of sorts .
The Great Flood takes a handful of faithful on Noah ’ s Ark while wiping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Northern Kingdom and force the Israelites into slavery .
The Babylonians do the same to Judea , but allow them to return two generations later .
Further attempts to play at world power rather than fulfill the Lord ’ s mission results in occupations , first by the Greeks and then the Romans .
A generation after Jesus ’ crucifixion , the Judeans will get ejected from Jerusalem for good and forced into permanent exile .
It is on these journeys of despair that we can finally hear the call of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cleopas and his companion on the road to Emmaus , just as it did to the Judeans in the Babylonian captivity and to the Israelites in their forty years in the desert .
It is only in their despair that they open themselves up to the meaning of the scriptures in a manner which unlocks understanding for them .
When that happens , it unlocks a burning desire in their hearts for more , for our hearts were formed to seek the Lord and His Word .
It is at the end of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into joy .
They finally recognize that Christ has been by their side all along , trying to guide them into understanding and joy rather than despair .
His teaching reminds them that this world is just a journey for men and women to seek the Lord , and only in that quest will they find joy .
It is in the breaking of the bread — in the Eucharist — that we gain the clarity and strength for this faith , and the nourishment for the journey to come .
It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mourning , but when we do , we should remember that the Word is our companion .
We all travel on the road to Emmaus , and we walk it while stumbling and occasionally losing our way , but we should never doubt that Christ walks it with us as well .
The front page image is a detail from “ The Supper at Emmaus ” by Paolo Antonio Barbieri , date unknown .
Via Wikimedia Commons .
“ Sunday Reflection ” is a regular feature , looking at the specific readings used @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parishes around the world .
The reflection represents only my own point of view , intended to help prepare myself for the Lord ’ s day and perhaps spark a meaningful discussion .
Previous Sunday Reflections from the main page can be found here .
For previous Green Room entries , click here .

This morning’s Gospel reading is Luke 24:13–35:
That very day, the first day of the week, two of Jesus’ disciples were going to a village seven miles from Jerusalem called Emmaus, and they were conversing about all the things that had occurred. And it happened that while they were conversing and debating, Jesus himself drew near and walked with them, but their eyes were prevented from recognizing him. He asked them, “What are you discussing as you walk along?” They stopped, looking downcast. One of them, named Cleopas, said to him in reply, “Are you the only visitor to Jerusalem who does not know of the things that have taken place there in these days?” And he replied to them, “What sort of things?” They said to him, “The things that happened to Jesus the Nazarene, who was a prophet mighty in deed and word before God and all the people, how our chief priests and rulers both handed him over to a sentence of death and crucified him. But we were hoping that he would be the one to redeem Israel; and besides all this, it is now the third day since this took place. Some women from our group, however, have astounded us: they were at the tomb early in the morning and did not find his body; they came back and reported that they had indeed seen a vision of angels who announced that he was alive. Then some of those with us went to the tomb and found things just as the women had described, but him they did not see.” And he said to them, “Oh, how foolish you are! How slow of heart to believe all that the prophets spoke! Was it not necessary that the Christ should suffer these things and enter into his glory?” Then beginning with Moses and all the prophets, he interpreted to them what referred to him in all the Scriptures. As they approached the village to which they were going, he gave the impression that he was going on farther. But they urged him, “Stay with us, for it is nearly evening and the day is almost over.” So he went in to stay with them. And it happened that, while he was with them at table, he took bread, said the blessing, broke it, and gave it to them. With that their eyes were opened and they recognized him, but he vanished from their sight. Then they said to each other, “Were not our hearts burning within us while he spoke to us on the way and opened the Scriptures to us?” So they set out at once and returned to Jerusalem where they found gathered together the eleven and those with them who were saying, “The Lord has truly been raised and has appeared to Simon!” Then the two recounted what had taken place on the way and how he was made known to them in the breaking of bread.
How many times do we hear of the road or the journey throughout our literary history? Being a fan of Lord of the Rings, it’s tough not to draw that parallel here, in which a walk on the road takes us from despair to triumph. It’s a common theme, and it even has a scriptural father — the story of Exodus, when the Israelites walk out of slavery in Egypt and spend forty years in despair and frustration to finally find their home in the Promised Land.
And these days, it seems as though we are all on a road that wends through despair, rebellion, and a loss of faith. The pandemic has upended everything we know about our lives — many have lost their jobs, some have lost their lives, and every one of us has lost our sense of normalcy and equilibrium. We have been forced to walk new and unfamiliar roads, and the things we thought we could rely on have been stripped away, at least temporarily, while we try to find our way to the end of a trip we never wanted to take in the first place.
We see this same theme in today’s Gospel reading about the road to Emmaus. Two disciples of Christ are leaving Jerusalem in despair, having been in the city for Jesus’ crucifixion. They are clearly lost, spiritually if not temporally, having expected a much different reality from Jesus’ ministry than an ignominious death on a cross. They expected Jesus to “redeem Israel” in the manner in which Judeans of that age demanded of a messiah — a restoration of a temporal kingdom in our world and an ejection of the occupiers.
This road to Emmaus parallels Exodus, at least in this manner — it is about human expectations failing to grasp the Lord’s will, and a loss of faith in His goodness, at least momentarily. It is a story about the movement from closeness to the Lord, then into despair, and eventually to faith and then to joy. This not only parallels the story of the Israelites in Exodus, but the road to Emmaus also encapsulates the whole history of salvation.
Despair has always been with us, because our predilection for original sin has always been with us. Our focus on control in this world and our inability to secure it for long is what creates that despair — the expectations that we can permanently order things to our will. But even so, the Lord has also always been with us, even when we ignore Him and insist on trusting only in ourselves.
Ever since the fall of Adam, the Lord has called us to return to Him. The Old Testament is filled with His call to choose Him over the material world, which is part of the Lord’s good Creation but is a spiritual dead end, so to speak. Over and over again, the Lord tells us through prophets to put aside the material to focus on the spiritual, especially when He establishes Israel as a nation of priests to bring all nations to Jerusalem for conversion to the Word of God. Over and over again, we choose to defy Him and put our trust in the grasp and control of the material.
And over and over again, the result is a “road trip” of sorts. The Great Flood takes a handful of faithful on Noah’s Ark while wiping out the arrogant. The Assyrians sack the Northern Kingdom and force the Israelites into slavery. The Babylonians do the same to Judea, but allow them to return two generations later. Further attempts to play at world power rather than fulfill the Lord’s mission results in occupations, first by the Greeks and then the Romans. A generation after Jesus’ crucifixion, the Judeans will get ejected from Jerusalem for good and forced into permanent exile.
It is on these journeys of despair that we can finally hear the call of the Lord. This is what happens to Cleopas and his companion on the road to Emmaus, just as it did to the Judeans in the Babylonian captivity and to the Israelites in their forty years in the desert. It is only in their despair that they open themselves up to the meaning of the scriptures in a manner which unlocks understanding for them. When that happens, it unlocks a burning desire in their hearts for more, for our hearts were formed to seek the Lord and His Word.
It is at the end of this road that the two men come into joy. They finally recognize that Christ has been by their side all along, trying to guide them into understanding and joy rather than despair. His teaching reminds them that this world is just a journey for men and women to seek the Lord, and only in that quest will they find joy. It is in the breaking of the bread — in the Eucharist — that we gain the clarity and strength for this faith, and the nourishment for the journey to come.
It is still easy to fall into despair and mourning, but when we do, we should remember that the Word is our companion. We all travel on the road to Emmaus, and we walk it while stumbling and occasionally losing our way, but we should never doubt that Christ walks it with us as well.
The front page image is a detail from “The Supper at Emmaus” by Paolo Antonio Barbieri, date unknown. Via Wikimedia Commons.
“Sunday Reflection” is a regular feature, looking at the specific readings used in today’s Mass in Catholic parishes around the world. The reflection represents only my own point of view, intended to help prepare myself for the Lord’s day and perhaps spark a meaningful discussion. Previous Sunday Reflections from the main page can be found here. For previous Green Room entries, click here.


hotair--2020-04-26--The 1993 CNN show featuring Tara Reade's mom has gone missing from Google Play? (UPDATE: CNN cleared

The 1993 CNN show featuring Tara Reade's mom has gone missing from Google Play? (UPDATE: CNN cleared?)

That story about Tara Reade ’ s mother calling in to the Larry King Live show in 1993 that John wrote about has seemingly taken a turn for the weird .
As you probably recall , Newsbusters dredged up the old episode that originally aired on August 11th of that year .
King took a call from San Luis Obispo , California .
It ’ s now been as close to definitively confirmed as possible that the call was indeed from Jeanette Altimus , Reade ’ s mother .
So here ’ s the weird part .
As discovered by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Fox News , if you go search for the episode in question on Google Play , it ’ s not there .
The rest of the season is listed ( though not currently available for download ) , but the August 11th episode doesn ’ t show up .
And the details only get stranger from there .
( EDIT : The episodes are unavailable because CNN doesn ’ t have a distribution deal with Google Play .
See update at end of article . )
The 1993 episode of CNN ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an anonymous caller who was later identified as the mother of Biden accuser Tara Reade was no longer listed in Google Play ’ s catalog late Saturday .
Twitter user J.L .
Hamilton shared a screenshot showing the Aug. 11 , 1993 , broadcast of “ Larry King Live ” was no longer listed in the season three catalog of the iconic CNN talk show .
Mysteriously , though , the Aug. 10 broadcast , which is listed as “ Episode 154 ” is followed by the Aug. 12 broadcast , which is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggesting that episode and the ones that follow could be incorrectly listed and off by a number .
Fox News later verified the Aug. 11 episode is not listed on the streaming service .
It is unclear when it was removed from the catalog .
I originally had reservations about the episode because the caller isn ’ t identified by name and she doesn ’ t specifically mention which “ prominent senator ” her daughter worked for or what her “ problems ” were that prompted her to leave that job .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Jeanette Altimus did indeed live in San Luis Obispo at that time .
It was also the exact period when Tara Reade was leaving Washington .
That ’ s a few too many coincidences to write this off , and Reade has confirmed that it ’ s her mother ’ s voice we ’ re hearing and that she knew her mom had called King ’ s show .
The real question here is how the show wound up not being listed in the Google Play directory , assuming this isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I have an account and checked myself .
It ’ s not there . )
I suppose , just to be fair , we should at least mention the possibility that either the episodes are mislabeled or the original was never loaded .
But the dates of the shows all line up until August 10th , episode 154 .
And the next entry is dated August 12th , but it ’ s labeled as episode 155 .
Again , we ’ re asking the word “ coincidence ” to do a lot of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some sort of glitch .
So let ’ s move on to the seemingly more likely possibility that the episode existed at one time but is no longer there .
Does this mean that it was recently removed by CNN from the Google Play offerings , perhaps after the recent news story broke ?
Could they really be that dumb as to think nobody would notice ?
Or , perhaps , was it removed somewhere further in the past , perhaps during Biden ’ s time as Vice President when someone remembered the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possibility is that they never loaded it in the first place when Google Play went live .
Making all of this smell even worse is the numbering of the episodes .
If this was some technical error where the August 11th show just wasn ’ t loaded , the next show should have been episode 156 .
But it isn ’ t .
Doesn ’ t that imply that all of the subsequent episodes were renumbered in the Google Play lineup to intentionally mask the fact that the original episode 155 had been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s too late for both Biden and CNN at this point as far as the Larry King Live show goes .
Newsbusters has the relevant clip on their site .
( I linked to it above in case you haven ’ t watched it yet . )
Does that definitively prove anything about Reade ’ s allegations ?
No , but it ’ s certainly one more piece of kindling on what ’ s slowly turning out to be more of a fire than I ’ d originally suspected .
If Reade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hugging , touching , hair sniffing , or any of Uncle Joe ’ s other well-known habits , would she have left her job over it ?
Would her mother have been so distressed upon hearing her daughter ’ s tale that she ’ d call Larry King about it ?
It just seems unlikely in the extreme .
Exit question : How ticked off is Bernie Sanders right about now ?
The rest of the Democrats chased him off the field of battle , but he ’ s going to feel bitterly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amid a sexual assault scandal .
While this doesn ’ t change the beyond suspicious facts of that specific episode disappearing from the Google Play directory , CNN may well not have been involved at all .
None of the episodes of Larry King Live are available because , according to CNN ’ s Head of Strategic Communications , Matt Dornic , CNN doesn ’ t even have a distribution deal with Google Play .
What they display in their catalog about Larry King Live didn ’ t come from CNN , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ When I asked Matt about it , he reiterated that CNN has no control over “ unavailable ” listings on Google Play .
This brings us to some additional and very interesting questions , but we ’ ll start fresh on this story tomorrow after I have time to make a few more inquiries .

(Please see update at the end of this article)
That story about Tara Reade’s mother calling in to the Larry King Live show in 1993 that John wrote about has seemingly taken a turn for the weird. As you probably recall, Newsbusters dredged up the old episode that originally aired on August 11th of that year. King took a call from San Luis Obispo, California. It’s now been as close to definitively confirmed as possible that the call was indeed from Jeanette Altimus, Reade’s mother.
So here’s the weird part. As discovered by Twitter user J.L. Hamilton and reported by Fox News, if you go search for the episode in question on Google Play, it’s not there. The rest of the season is listed (though not currently available for download), but the August 11th episode doesn’t show up. And the details only get stranger from there. (EDIT: The episodes are unavailable because CNN doesn’t have a distribution deal with Google Play. See update at end of article.)
The 1993 episode of CNN’s “Larry King Live” featuring an anonymous caller who was later identified as the mother of Biden accuser Tara Reade was no longer listed in Google Play’s catalog late Saturday. Twitter user J.L. Hamilton shared a screenshot showing the Aug. 11, 1993, broadcast of “Larry King Live” was no longer listed in the season three catalog of the iconic CNN talk show. Mysteriously, though, the Aug. 10 broadcast, which is listed as “Episode 154” is followed by the Aug. 12 broadcast, which is listed as “Episode 155,” suggesting that episode and the ones that follow could be incorrectly listed and off by a number. Fox News later verified the Aug. 11 episode is not listed on the streaming service. It is unclear when it was removed from the catalog.
https://twitter.com/absinthol/status/1254242795017117696
I originally had reservations about the episode because the caller isn’t identified by name and she doesn’t specifically mention which “prominent senator” her daughter worked for or what her “problems” were that prompted her to leave that job. But it’s since been confirmed that Jeanette Altimus did indeed live in San Luis Obispo at that time. It was also the exact period when Tara Reade was leaving Washington. That’s a few too many coincidences to write this off, and Reade has confirmed that it’s her mother’s voice we’re hearing and that she knew her mom had called King’s show.
The real question here is how the show wound up not being listed in the Google Play directory, assuming this isn’t just some bizarre technical glitch. (I have an account and checked myself. It’s not there.)
I suppose, just to be fair, we should at least mention the possibility that either the episodes are mislabeled or the original was never loaded. But the dates of the shows all line up until August 10th, episode 154. And the next entry is dated August 12th, but it’s labeled as episode 155. Again, we’re asking the word “coincidence” to do a lot of heavy lifting to sweep this away as some sort of glitch.
So let’s move on to the seemingly more likely possibility that the episode existed at one time but is no longer there. Does this mean that it was recently removed by CNN from the Google Play offerings, perhaps after the recent news story broke? Could they really be that dumb as to think nobody would notice? Or, perhaps, was it removed somewhere further in the past, perhaps during Biden’s time as Vice President when someone remembered the potentially incriminating show segment? The final possibility is that they never loaded it in the first place when Google Play went live.
Making all of this smell even worse is the numbering of the episodes. If this was some technical error where the August 11th show just wasn’t loaded, the next show should have been episode 156. But it isn’t. Doesn’t that imply that all of the subsequent episodes were renumbered in the Google Play lineup to intentionally mask the fact that the original episode 155 had been deleted?
In any event, it’s too late for both Biden and CNN at this point as far as the Larry King Live show goes. Newsbusters has the relevant clip on their site. (I linked to it above in case you haven’t watched it yet.) Does that definitively prove anything about Reade’s allegations? No, but it’s certainly one more piece of kindling on what’s slowly turning out to be more of a fire than I’d originally suspected. If Reade’s complaint had just involved inappropriate hugging, touching, hair sniffing, or any of Uncle Joe’s other well-known habits, would she have left her job over it? Would her mother have been so distressed upon hearing her daughter’s tale that she’d call Larry King about it? It just seems unlikely in the extreme.
Exit question: How ticked off is Bernie Sanders right about now? The rest of the Democrats chased him off the field of battle, but he’s going to feel bitterly vindicated if Biden somehow winds up collapsing amid a sexual assault scandal.
UPDATE: (Jazz)
While this doesn’t change the beyond suspicious facts of that specific episode disappearing from the Google Play directory, CNN may well not have been involved at all. None of the episodes of Larry King Live are available because, according to CNN’s Head of Strategic Communications, Matt Dornic, CNN doesn’t even have a distribution deal with Google Play. What they display in their catalog about Larry King Live didn’t come from CNN, so Google controls whatever is displayed there.
This is B.S. CNN didn’t remove anything. We do not have a distro deal for LKL w/ Google Play. Listings on the site are not sourced thru CNN. Click any episode, it will say “not available to watch.” True for @foxnews programs too. I’ll wait 4 ur correction & apology. Screenshots: pic.twitter.com/Lb2ZJw3kcX — Matt Dornic (@mdornic) April 26, 2020
When I asked Matt about it, he reiterated that CNN has no control over “unavailable” listings on Google Play.
As you know, I don’t work for Google. But my understanding is that they pull in listings using metadata from a third-party site. If they get enough requests for a season of some program, it would signal that they may want to do a license deal or distro the content. pic.twitter.com/ptN8oJ3eBD — Matt Dornic (@mdornic) April 26, 2020
This brings us to some additional and very interesting questions, but we’ll start fresh on this story tomorrow after I have time to make a few more inquiries.


hotair--2020-04-26--ACLU attempts to block Baltimore surveillance planes from flight

There was a rather amazing bit of good news coming out of Florida this weekend .
As of yesterday , there have been no murders recorded in the city of Miami for seven straight weeks .
If that sounds like an underwhelming statistic to you , we should put it in context and note that this is the first time that ’ s happened since 1957 .
The ongoing pandemic is being credited by the police as the largest factor driving this happy news .
I brought up that story mostly to draw a contrast with another city where things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That would be Baltimore , Maryland .
To be sure , the murder rate in Charm City is down from the same period last year ( finally ) .
After averaging more than one murder per day through the first six weeks of the year , even some of the gang bangers seem to be staying at home .
But there have still been 85 murders on the year , with four more recorded in the past week .
Good news may be on the way , however .
Beginning next month @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up in the skies above the city , providing constant video data of 90 % of all activity on the streets .
When a crime takes place , police will be able to track the movements of cars and pedestrians in the area both before and after the incident .
It ’ s a program that was first tested in 2016 with a great deal of success .
Unfortunately , it was terminated after so-called privacy advocates complained about it .
An attempt to resurrect it last August was once again rejected on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after the city set a per capita homicide rate record last year , the municipal government finally relented and agreed to give it another try .
It almost didn ’ t happen , though , because the ACLU ( along with other groups ) once again went back to court and tried to put a stop to it .
But his time they failed .
A federal judge has declared the program legal and permissible so the planes are currently cleared for takeoff .
Baltimore activists had sued the police department and asked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the planes until their lawsuit is resolved .
The nonprofit American Civil Liberties Union had petitioned for an emergency injunction .
“ The images produced by the AIR pilot program will only depict individuals as minuscule dots moving about a city landscape , ” he wrote .
“ The movement of these dots can not be tracked without significant labor .
Gaps in the imagery data foreclose the tracking of a single person over the course of several days .
This limited form of aerial surveillance does not constitute a ‘ search ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it burden First Amendment speech activities.
” The attorneys had argued the planes violate protections of privacy and free association in the U.S. Constitution .
We ’ ve discussed this technology here before and it ’ s pretty amazing .
During the original pilot program ( no pun intended ) , several violent crimes were solved quickly when surveillance video allowed police to retrace the steps of shooters to the moment they left their residence and track down the spot where they went to ground afterward .
Perhaps even more importantly , gang @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eyes in the skies and at least some of them appeared to become less brazen about their activities .
Also , as an added bonus , this entire program is being provided to the city at zero cost to the taxpayers .
A pair of wealthy Texas philanthropists , Laura and John Arnold , are funding the planes , the pilots , overtime money for the police , and even the expenses of a board set up to monitor the program for any civil rights violations .
The fact that there is still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the city ’ s elected leaders is mind-boggling .
It ’ s even more amazing when you consider that polls have consistently shown that the aerial surveillance program is wildly popular with Baltimore residents , with nearly 75 % expressing support , including Black residents who make up a majority of the city ’ s population .
We shall see how well the surveillance program does this time .
At the moment , Baltimore is on track to rack up roughly 250 murders in 2020 , a significant decrease from last year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ current period when the pandemic is decreasing all activity across the region .
The lockdown won ’ t last forever and gang violence always spikes during the hot summer months .
Perhaps this program can change those grim statistics a bit for the better .

There was a rather amazing bit of good news coming out of Florida this weekend. As of yesterday, there have been no murders recorded in the city of Miami for seven straight weeks. If that sounds like an underwhelming statistic to you, we should put it in context and note that this is the first time that’s happened since 1957. The ongoing pandemic is being credited by the police as the largest factor driving this happy news.
I brought up that story mostly to draw a contrast with another city where things aren’t going nearly as well. That would be Baltimore, Maryland. To be sure, the murder rate in Charm City is down from the same period last year (finally). After averaging more than one murder per day through the first six weeks of the year, even some of the gang bangers seem to be staying at home. But there have still been 85 murders on the year, with four more recorded in the past week.
Good news may be on the way, however. Beginning next month, three surveillance planes will be back up in the skies above the city, providing constant video data of 90% of all activity on the streets. When a crime takes place, police will be able to track the movements of cars and pedestrians in the area both before and after the incident. It’s a program that was first tested in 2016 with a great deal of success. Unfortunately, it was terminated after so-called privacy advocates complained about it. An attempt to resurrect it last August was once again rejected on the same basis. But now, after the city set a per capita homicide rate record last year, the municipal government finally relented and agreed to give it another try. It almost didn’t happen, though, because the ACLU (along with other groups) once again went back to court and tried to put a stop to it. But his time they failed. A federal judge has declared the program legal and permissible so the planes are currently cleared for takeoff.
Baltimore activists had sued the police department and asked U.S. District Judge Richard Bennett to ground the planes until their lawsuit is resolved. The nonprofit American Civil Liberties Union had petitioned for an emergency injunction. “The images produced by the AIR pilot program will only depict individuals as minuscule dots moving about a city landscape,” he wrote. “The movement of these dots cannot be tracked without significant labor. Gaps in the imagery data foreclose the tracking of a single person over the course of several days. This limited form of aerial surveillance does not constitute a ‘search’ under the Fourth Amendment, nor does it burden First Amendment speech activities.” The attorneys had argued the planes violate protections of privacy and free association in the U.S. Constitution.
We’ve discussed this technology here before and it’s pretty amazing. During the original pilot program (no pun intended), several violent crimes were solved quickly when surveillance video allowed police to retrace the steps of shooters to the moment they left their residence and track down the spot where they went to ground afterward. Perhaps even more importantly, gang members quickly became aware that there were eyes in the skies and at least some of them appeared to become less brazen about their activities.
Also, as an added bonus, this entire program is being provided to the city at zero cost to the taxpayers. A pair of wealthy Texas philanthropists, Laura and John Arnold, are funding the planes, the pilots, overtime money for the police, and even the expenses of a board set up to monitor the program for any civil rights violations. The fact that there is still opposition to the program by some of the city’s elected leaders is mind-boggling. It’s even more amazing when you consider that polls have consistently shown that the aerial surveillance program is wildly popular with Baltimore residents, with nearly 75% expressing support, including Black residents who make up a majority of the city’s population.
We shall see how well the surveillance program does this time. At the moment, Baltimore is on track to rack up roughly 250 murders in 2020, a significant decrease from last year. But that figure is based on the current period when the pandemic is decreasing all activity across the region. The lockdown won’t last forever and gang violence always spikes during the hot summer months. Perhaps this program can change those grim statistics a bit for the better.


hotair--2020-04-26--Sunday morning talking heads

Sunday morning talking heads

Pity poor Deborah Birx , tasked with doing the Sunday shows this morning knowing she ’ ll be grilled about exciting new medical frontiers in hitting the body with a very powerful light , the best light , many people are saying .
She ’ ll chat with “ Meet the Press ” and “ State of the Union ” about the prospect of “ cleaning ” people internally with disinfectant and why she can ’ t just say , “ That ’ s really stupid and dangerous.
” She ’ ll also be asked about Georgia ’ s partial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ White House .
What is she seeing in the data that makes her think they ’ re not ready to try even limited commercial activity ?
Various state and local officials are booked this morning as well to share their outlook on reopening for business within the next few weeks .
Republican Larry Hogan of Maryland is set for “ This Week ” and “ Face the Nation , ” where he ’ ll discuss the uptick in calls to his state ’ s coronavirus hotline about using cleaning products to fight the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Thursday .
Michigan Democrat Gretchen Whitmer will also chat with “ This Week ” about the state legislature ’ s plan to punish her overreach on stay-at-home orders by calling a special session to strip her of some emergency powers .
And San Francisco Mayor London Breed will sit down with “ Face the Nation ” to forecast when restrictions might be eased in the Bay Area .
Breed famously took aggressive action early to limit the spread of the virus , declaring a state of emergency in San Fran two months ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ toll far below expectations , is the city ready to reemerge ?
Doesn ’ t sound like it .
The most notable governor scheduled this morning , though , is Colorado ’ s Jared Polis .
Why ?
Because Polis is a liberal Democrat who ’ s nonetheless given the okay to start reopening some businesses in his state .
Most of the agitation on reopening has come from the right , but he ’ s an exception .
He ’ ll talk with “ State of the Union ” about his decision @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many Republican governors .
Oh , and Nancy Pelosi will also be on to rant about Trump and talk about her plan to obstruct the next round of PPP funding for small businesses for days or weeks on end .
She ’ ll follow Polis on “ State of the Union.
” The full line-up is at the AP .

Pity poor Deborah Birx, tasked with doing the Sunday shows this morning knowing she’ll be grilled about exciting new medical frontiers in hitting the body with a very powerful light, the best light, many people are saying. She’ll chat with “Meet the Press” and “State of the Union” about the prospect of “cleaning” people internally with disinfectant and why she can’t just say, “That’s really stupid and dangerous.” She’ll also be asked about Georgia’s partial reopening, which is opposed by the White House. What is she seeing in the data that makes her think they’re not ready to try even limited commercial activity?
Various state and local officials are booked this morning as well to share their outlook on reopening for business within the next few weeks. Republican Larry Hogan of Maryland is set for “This Week” and “Face the Nation,” where he’ll discuss the uptick in calls to his state’s coronavirus hotline about using cleaning products to fight the disease after Trump’s presser on Thursday. Michigan Democrat Gretchen Whitmer will also chat with “This Week” about the state legislature’s plan to punish her overreach on stay-at-home orders by calling a special session to strip her of some emergency powers. And San Francisco Mayor London Breed will sit down with “Face the Nation” to forecast when restrictions might be eased in the Bay Area. Breed famously took aggressive action early to limit the spread of the virus, declaring a state of emergency in San Fran two months ago today. With California’s death toll far below expectations, is the city ready to reemerge? Doesn’t sound like it.
The most notable governor scheduled this morning, though, is Colorado’s Jared Polis. Why? Because Polis is a liberal Democrat who’s nonetheless given the okay to start reopening some businesses in his state. Most of the agitation on reopening has come from the right, but he’s an exception. He’ll talk with “State of the Union” about his decision to move quickly, ahead of even many Republican governors.
Oh, and Nancy Pelosi will also be on to rant about Trump and talk about her plan to obstruct the next round of PPP funding for small businesses for days or weeks on end. She’ll follow Polis on “State of the Union.” The full line-up is at the AP.


hotair--2020-04-27--Confirmed: Single Dems are far less likely to date a Trump voter than single Republicans are to date

Confirmed: Single Dems are far less likely to date a Trump voter than single Republicans are to date a Clinton voter

A trifle to cleanse the palate on the first slow-ish news day of the coronavirus era .
My take on this survey begins with a reminder that men lean Republican ( slightly ) while women lean Democratic ( strongly ) and follows with the highly simplistic truism that men and women may prioritize … differently when assessing attractive qualities in a potential mate .
Not completely differently .
But differently enough .
Tell a committed Democratic woman that a Trump voter ’ s into her and she might ask if he ’ s voting for Biden this time .
Tell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voter ’ s into him and he ’ ll say , “ Show me the photo.
” Righties don ’ t care .
We get the left-wing viewpoint all day long from the news media and entertainment industry .
Might as well get it at the dinner table and in the sack too .
There may be a class component , or at least a perceived class component , to this .
Pew notes that 84 percent of Democrats with a bachelor ’ s degree said they wouldn ’ t date a Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , that dropped to 67 percent .
Two years ago Pew found that 58 percent of college graduates identified as Democrats or Democratic leaners , the highest share in 25 years , compared to 36 percent who identified as Republicans .
In 2016 Hillary won college grads and postgrads while Trump won those with a high-school education or some college .
Many Dems may see themselves as middle- or upper-class and not want to date among the working class , which is how Trump voters are commonly stereotyped .
Race is another factor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GOP is a party of mostly aging whites while the Democrats in 2020 are younger and rely heavily on black and Latino voters for their margins of victory .
Whites broke for Trump by 20 points four years ago , nonwhites went for Hillary by 53 ( ! )
.
Pew found that nonwhite Dems were more likely than white Dems to say they wouldn ’ t date a Trump voter by a margin of 17 points .
Traditional assumptions about racism might lead you to think members of the “ white party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members of the “ nonwhite party ” than vice versa but , as you can see up top , according to Pew it ’ s the opposite .
Maybe that ’ s what happens when the face of the white party is Trump and the face of the nonwhite party is AOC .
There ’ s one quirk in the data I ’ m curious about , though .
I understand why Democrats are much more likely to say they ’ d date a Republican than a Trump voter .
Some Republicans lean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Trump .
There ’ s something in common there .
What about the Republicans who say they ’ d date a Democrat but not a Hillary voter , though ?
Whom do they imagine to be in *that* group ?
Because in my mind that ’ s the Bernie contingent , the DSA types for whom Clinton wasn ’ t nearly socialist enough .
Not a great match for righties , unless you ’ re looking for an “ angry fights followed by make-up sex ” dynamic .
Exit quotation from Pew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ men are about twice as likely as single-and-looking Democratic women to say they wouldn ’ t get into a relationship with a Clinton voter ( 17 % vs. 9 % ) .
” Does that mean nearly 20 percent of Berniebros don ’ t want to date mainstream Democrats ?

A trifle to cleanse the palate on the first slow-ish news day of the coronavirus era. My take on this survey begins with a reminder that men lean Republican (slightly) while women lean Democratic (strongly) and follows with the highly simplistic truism that men and women may prioritize … differently when assessing attractive qualities in a potential mate.
Not completely differently. But differently enough.
Tell a committed Democratic woman that a Trump voter’s into her and she might ask if he’s voting for Biden this time. Tell a committed Republican man that a Clinton voter’s into him and he’ll say, “Show me the photo.”
Righties don’t care. We get the left-wing viewpoint all day long from the news media and entertainment industry. Might as well get it at the dinner table and in the sack too.
There may be a class component, or at least a perceived class component, to this. Pew notes that 84 percent of Democrats with a bachelor’s degree said they wouldn’t date a Trump voter; among Democrats without a degree, that dropped to 67 percent. Two years ago Pew found that 58 percent of college graduates identified as Democrats or Democratic leaners, the highest share in 25 years, compared to 36 percent who identified as Republicans. In 2016 Hillary won college grads and postgrads while Trump won those with a high-school education or some college. Many Dems may see themselves as middle- or upper-class and not want to date among the working class, which is how Trump voters are commonly stereotyped.
Race is another factor, of course. Trump’s GOP is a party of mostly aging whites while the Democrats in 2020 are younger and rely heavily on black and Latino voters for their margins of victory. Whites broke for Trump by 20 points four years ago, nonwhites went for Hillary by 53(!). Pew found that nonwhite Dems were more likely than white Dems to say they wouldn’t date a Trump voter by a margin of 17 points. Traditional assumptions about racism might lead you to think members of the “white party” would be more reluctant to date members of the “nonwhite party” than vice versa but, as you can see up top, according to Pew it’s the opposite. Maybe that’s what happens when the face of the white party is Trump and the face of the nonwhite party is AOC.
There’s one quirk in the data I’m curious about, though. I understand why Democrats are much more likely to say they’d date a Republican than a Trump voter. Some Republicans lean centrist and share the Dems’ disdain for Trump. There’s something in common there. What about the Republicans who say they’d date a Democrat but not a Hillary voter, though? Whom do they imagine to be in *that* group? Because in my mind that’s the Bernie contingent, the DSA types for whom Clinton wasn’t nearly socialist enough.
Not a great match for righties, unless you’re looking for an “angry fights followed by make-up sex” dynamic.
Exit quotation from Pew: “[S]ingle-and-looking Democratic men are about twice as likely as single-and-looking Democratic women to say they wouldn’t get into a relationship with a Clinton voter (17% vs. 9%).” Does that mean nearly 20 percent of Berniebros don’t want to date mainstream Democrats?