hotair--2020-03-02--Suspense mounts: Is Biden going to surprise Bernie in California tomorrow?

Normally this is where we run through some polls and do a little chin-pulling about how the numbers might move if this group swings to Joe or that group breaks for Bernie .
But the polls are all but completely worthless at the moment , possibly more so than they have been at any moment in any presidential race in the past 25 years .
I don ’ t think we ’ ve ever seen quite as rapid a sea change as we have over the past week , when Biden ’ s lead in South Carolina went from narrowing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ competitors rapidly dropped out and endorsed him ; and big names within the party quickly climbed off the fence to endorse him .
It ’ s anyone ’ s guess at the moment what a Biden blowout in SC plus Buttigieg ’ s and Klobuchar ’ s endorsements plus the likes of Harry Reid swinging behind him plus all the media hype those developments have entailed mean for the results tomorrow night .
Is Biden going to end up doing five points better on Super Tuesday than the pre-SC polls predicted ?
15 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expectations in South Carolina among black voters , how much higher than expected might his share of the black vote in states like Alabama be than pollsters have forecast ?
He ’ s gotten everything he could have realistically hoped for over the past 72 hours .
We ’ re in a state of highly unusual near-total uncertainty .
But let ’ s step back .
There are a lot of moving parts tomorrow but the state of the race is surprisingly straightforward .
In a nutshell , Bernie versus Biden is largely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s expected to pile up delegates in Cali ; Biden ’ s expected to pile them up in southern states thanks chiefly to black Democrats .
If either man does better than projected on the other ’ s turf , it ’ s going to badly damage that second guy ’ s path to the nomination .
Right now Nate Silver ’ s model has the odds of a brokered convention this summer at 69 percent ( ! )
, with Bernie ’ s chances at a majority of delegates down to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at 14 percent .
But Sanders ’ s odds will rise if he runs up the score in California : There are so many delegates at stake there that a truly dominating showing might make his national lead basically insurmountable , even if it ’ s not quite enough to clinch before the convention .
What if he doesn ’ t run up the score , though ?
Here ’ s a rare post-South Carolina poll of CA .
Note the Biden surge : Sure looks like Buttigieg , Bloomberg , and Steyer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lifeboats and paddle over to Biden ’ s ship .
If Joe had a full week of post-SC hype , say , maybe he could catch all the way up to Bernie and threaten to win the state .
Since he only has 72 hours , that seems unlikely ( he has only a 10 percent chance of winning in FiveThirtyEight ’ s model ) — but the fact that he ’ s on the rise is significant .
That ’ s because of the 15 percent viability threshold for delegates in Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bubble for viability in this pollster ’ s last survey of California ; now it seems like he ’ ll easily clear that bar , cutting deeply into the delegate haul Sanders was hoping to take from the state .
At the moment FiveThirtyEight projects Bernie to take 181 delegates versus Biden ’ s 126 , a far more modest advantage than seemed likely when Sanders was the only candidate reliably polling north of 15 percent in California .
And of course , if Biden runs up the score in the south , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gradually eat into the small cushion Bernie will have received from his win in California .
Which is not to imply that that ’ s the only state where Bernie will do well tomorrow .
He ’ ll probably win Amy Klobuchar ’ s and Elizabeth Warren ’ s home states , for starters .
But a mediocre performance in Cali and a Biden mega-bounce elsewhere will incinerate his hopes of putting the race away on Super Tuesday .
And there are reasons to believe a mega-bounce might ( emphasis on “ might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ starting with the fact that his only remaining competition for centrist voters was extremely unpopular in SC and might run into that problem elsewhere tomorrow as well : How much of Bloomberg ’ s polling surge last month was on the merits , in response to his ads , and how much was a product of fear among moderates that Biden couldn ’ t win anywhere , necessitating a centrist back-up candidate ?
If it ’ s the latter , there might be a stampede from Bloomberg to Biden tomorrow , causing Joe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ knocking Bloomy from the race .
This new national poll suggests that there ’ s some sort of “ maybe Joe can win after all ” boost to his polling , although it ’ s not coming out of Bloomberg ’ s pocket as much as Bernie ’ s : If Joe picked up just half of Buttigieg ’ s and Klobuchar ’ s supporters ( and Bernie picked up none ) , he would lead the race .
Imagine what that effect might be like in key states tomorrow night following Pete @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this evening .
And even though Sanders is all but certain to win California , that doesn ’ t mean Biden ’ s showing there might not catch everyone by surprise .
If he received all of Buttigieg ’ s and Klobuchar ’ s votes in the Cali poll posted above , he ’ d be hot on Bernie ’ s heels for the lead .
Yes , yes , I realize he won ’ t get all of their votes .
And yes , the fact that early voting has been going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the “ Biden bounce ” after South Carolina will have come too late to affect a huge chunk of the result in CA .
But there ’ s actually a little good news for Biden on that front too .
Per Politico , it looks like a surprisingly large number of Californians have been keeping their powder dry this year , waiting for Election Day to vote .
Have undecideds in California been hanging back , wanting to support Biden but not willing to commit until he passed his test in South Carolina @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expect tomorrow night now that he ’ s aced it ?
Are we sure Bernie ’ s still a 90 percent favorite to win there ?
I think he ’ s facing a narrative disaster even if he holds on and wins but by a surprisingly narrow margin .
California was supposed to be his big prize tomorrow , the state that was going to almost singlehandedly make him uncatchable in the race to the convention .
If Biden performs well enough to eat up most of the delegate advantage Sanders was expecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be “ NEW DOUBTS ABOUT BERNIE AS BIDEN SURGES NATIONALLY.
” Sanders will likely still be the overall delegate leader for now , but maybe not long-term .
And even if he ends up at the convention with a plurality , it might be a narrow enough plurality to confound the arguments by his fans that he obviously deserves to be the nominee .
Imagine an outcome where Bernie has 41 percent of delegates by June , Biden has 40 , and other centrist candidates like Bloomberg and Buttigieg combine for 11 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe by that point .
That ’ d be 51 percent of delegates pledged to some moderate candidate , with all of the moderate candidates themselves having aligned behind a single person .
What does the DNC do in that scenario ?
That ’ s no unlikely hypothetical either .
Right now — well , see for yourself : Bernie is momentarily projected to win a grand total of 22 more delegates than Biden is before the end of the primaries .
Let me remind you that 415 delegates are at stake tomorrow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s haul in Silver ’ s model with Mike Bloomberg ’ s projected take of 600+ and you end up with a clear delegate majority for the centrists in Milwaukee even though Bernie will have won a plurality .
Gulp .
Here ’ s the great anti-socialist hope , showing off his skills today on the trail .

Normally this is where we run through some polls and do a little chin-pulling about how the numbers might move if this group swings to Joe or that group breaks for Bernie.
But the polls are all but completely worthless at the moment, possibly more so than they have been at any moment in any presidential race in the past 25 years. I don’t think we’ve ever seen quite as rapid a sea change as we have over the past week, when Biden’s lead in South Carolina went from narrowing to explosive; some of his main competitors rapidly dropped out and endorsed him; and big names within the party quickly climbed off the fence to endorse him. It’s anyone’s guess at the moment what a Biden blowout in SC plus Buttigieg’s and Klobuchar’s endorsements plus the likes of Harry Reid swinging behind him plus all the media hype those developments have entailed mean for the results tomorrow night.
Is Biden going to end up doing five points better on Super Tuesday than the pre-SC polls predicted? 15 points better? Given how he outperformed expectations in South Carolina among black voters, how much higher than expected might his share of the black vote in states like Alabama be than pollsters have forecast? He’s gotten everything he could have realistically hoped for over the past 72 hours. We’re in a state of highly unusual near-total uncertainty.
But let’s step back. There are a lot of moving parts tomorrow but the state of the race is surprisingly straightforward. In a nutshell, Bernie versus Biden is largely California versus the south. Bernie’s expected to pile up delegates in Cali; Biden’s expected to pile them up in southern states thanks chiefly to black Democrats. If either man does better than projected on the other’s turf, it’s going to badly damage that second guy’s path to the nomination. Right now Nate Silver’s model has the odds of a brokered convention this summer at 69 percent(!), with Bernie’s chances at a majority of delegates down to a measly 17 percent and Biden right behind at 14 percent. But Sanders’s odds will rise if he runs up the score in California: There are so many delegates at stake there that a truly dominating showing might make his national lead basically insurmountable, even if it’s not quite enough to clinch before the convention.
What if he doesn’t run up the score, though? Here’s a rare post-South Carolina poll of CA. Note the Biden surge:
NEW California Point Blank Political (NR) poll Feb 29-Mar 1 (change since Feb 28):
Sanders: 34% (-)
Biden: 22% (+8)
Warren: 14% (-)
Bloomberg: 10% (-2)
(Buttigieg: 6% (-3))
Klobuchar: 3% (-)
(Steyer: 1% (-2))
Gabbard: 1% (-)
MOE +/- 4.1% — Spencer Gray 🌎☄💕®🗽🌷 (@realspencergray) March 2, 2020
Sure looks like Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and Steyer fans are beginning to head for the lifeboats and paddle over to Biden’s ship. If Joe had a full week of post-SC hype, say, maybe he could catch all the way up to Bernie and threaten to win the state. Since he only has 72 hours, that seems unlikely (he has only a 10 percent chance of winning in FiveThirtyEight’s model) — but the fact that he’s on the rise is significant. That’s because of the 15 percent viability threshold for delegates in Democratic primaries. Biden was right on the bubble for viability in this pollster’s last survey of California; now it seems like he’ll easily clear that bar, cutting deeply into the delegate haul Sanders was hoping to take from the state. At the moment FiveThirtyEight projects Bernie to take 181 delegates versus Biden’s 126, a far more modest advantage than seemed likely when Sanders was the only candidate reliably polling north of 15 percent in California.
And of course, if Biden runs up the score in the south, his delegate hauls there will collectively and gradually eat into the small cushion Bernie will have received from his win in California.
Which is not to imply that that’s the only state where Bernie will do well tomorrow. He’ll probably win Amy Klobuchar’s and Elizabeth Warren’s home states, for starters. But a mediocre performance in Cali and a Biden mega-bounce elsewhere will incinerate his hopes of putting the race away on Super Tuesday. And there are reasons to believe a mega-bounce might (emphasis on “might”) be in the offing, starting with the fact that his only remaining competition for centrist voters was extremely unpopular in SC and might run into that problem elsewhere tomorrow as well:
Bloomberg fav/unfav with SC primary voters: 26/66. — Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) March 1, 2020
How much of Bloomberg’s polling surge last month was on the merits, in response to his ads, and how much was a product of fear among moderates that Biden couldn’t win anywhere, necessitating a centrist back-up candidate? If it’s the latter, there might be a stampede from Bloomberg to Biden tomorrow, causing Joe to far outperform his polls and probably knocking Bloomy from the race.
This new national poll suggests that there’s some sort of “maybe Joe can win after all” boost to his polling, although it’s not coming out of Bloomberg’s pocket as much as Bernie’s:
NEW post-SC poll from @MorningConsult: Sanders: 29% (-3)
Biden: 26% (+7)
Bloomberg: 17% (-1)
Warren: 11%
Buttigieg: 10% (-1)
Klobuchar: 3% (-1) https://t.co/Y2ocr3MA2H Conducted March 1 among 2,656 Dem primary voters; MoE +/-2. — Cameron Easley (@cameron_easley) March 2, 2020
If Joe picked up just half of Buttigieg’s and Klobuchar’s supporters (and Bernie picked up none), he would lead the race. Imagine what that effect might be like in key states tomorrow night following Pete’s and Amy’s endorsements this evening.
And even though Sanders is all but certain to win California, that doesn’t mean Biden’s showing there might not catch everyone by surprise. If he received all of Buttigieg’s and Klobuchar’s votes in the Cali poll posted above, he’d be hot on Bernie’s heels for the lead. Yes, yes, I realize he won’t get all of their votes. And yes, the fact that early voting has been going on in California for weeks means that the “Biden bounce” after South Carolina will have come too late to affect a huge chunk of the result in CA. But there’s actually a little good news for Biden on that front too. Per Politico, it looks like a surprisingly large number of Californians have been keeping their powder dry this year, waiting for Election Day to vote.
Paul Mitchell, an elections expert who has tracked the number of returned vote-by-mail California ballots through Friday, told POLITICO he’s seen a significant drop-off among Democratic voters from the past two California presidential primaries to date. And the decline in returned ballots so far is occurring among the most dedicated voters: Those who have participated in the past five elections. “People in Super Tuesday states and California, in particular, are not returning their ballots yet,” said Danielle Cendejas, a Democratic strategist in California whose firm did campaign mail for both of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. “They’re waiting for a signal, and I think this is a signal. If you were debating between which of the Democrats who aren’t Bernie Sanders or even Elizabeth Warren to throw your hat behind, you’re probably going Joe Biden’s way.”
Have undecideds in California been hanging back, wanting to support Biden but not willing to commit until he passed his test in South Carolina? If so, what should we expect tomorrow night now that he’s aced it?
Are we sure Bernie’s still a 90 percent favorite to win there?
I think he’s facing a narrative disaster even if he holds on and wins but by a surprisingly narrow margin. California was supposed to be his big prize tomorrow, the state that was going to almost singlehandedly make him uncatchable in the race to the convention. If Biden performs well enough to eat up most of the delegate advantage Sanders was expecting in CA, the headlines all week will be “NEW DOUBTS ABOUT BERNIE AS BIDEN SURGES NATIONALLY.” Sanders will likely still be the overall delegate leader for now, but maybe not long-term. And even if he ends up at the convention with a plurality, it might be a narrow enough plurality to confound the arguments by his fans that he obviously deserves to be the nominee. Imagine an outcome where Bernie has 41 percent of delegates by June, Biden has 40, and other centrist candidates like Bloomberg and Buttigieg combine for 11. Imagine further that Bloomberg has endorsed Joe by that point. That’d be 51 percent of delegates pledged to some moderate candidate, with all of the moderate candidates themselves having aligned behind a single person. What does the DNC do in that scenario?
That’s no unlikely hypothetical either. Right now — well, see for yourself:
Biden and Sanders are now ~tied in our forecast.https://t.co/JDz2dZ8bqR pic.twitter.com/bE06cPOaX6 — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 2, 2020
Bernie is momentarily projected to win a grand total of 22 more delegates than Biden is before the end of the primaries. Let me remind you that 415 delegates are at stake tomorrow in California alone. Combine Joe’s haul in Silver’s model with Mike Bloomberg’s projected take of 600+ and you end up with a clear delegate majority for the centrists in Milwaukee even though Bernie will have won a plurality. Gulp.
Here’s the great anti-socialist hope, showing off his skills today on the trail.


hotair--2020-03-03--Super Tuesday: Maine, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee. Updates - Biden

Super Tuesday: Maine, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee. Updates - Biden takes Virginia

UPDATE : ( Jazz ) As anticipated , Joe Biden has taken a commanding win in Virginia while Bernie Sanders took his home state of Vermont .
In this thread , we ’ ll cover four races from the eastern time zone because… I ’ m old and I go to bed early .
( There .
I said it . )
If you ’ d asked me 48 hours ago how these states were going to fall , I would have told you Biden would pick up one of them solidly ( North Carolina ) and Bernie Sanders would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ margins of victory .
Today , however , that ’ s all gone out the window .
Particularly considering that late round of polling that Allahpundit covered earlier , the Joementum may indeed be both real and spectacular unless you ’ re a Bernie Bro .
We ’ ll have the usual live-tracking widgets in our main Super Tuesday results thread , but you ’ ll be able to follow the split of the delegates at the bottom of this post if any of these are the races you ’ re most interested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ North Carolina , which was considered to be one of Joe Biden ’ s safe states even before the South Carolina explosion because the two states share a lot of the same political DNA .
The RCP average already had Biden up 37/23 over Sanders with Bloomberg hovering just below the 15 % cutoff for delegates .
But the last poll out this morning shows a major shift in Uncle Joe ’ s direction .
He ’ s sitting at 44 % to Sanders ’ 17.6 .
Bloomberg drops off the delegate radar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is wildly off the mark , Biden blows this one out of the water .
Moving on to Maine , Sanders was previously up by 14 and this is one state where even the shock polls from this morning don ’ t show more than sliver of a shift toward Biden .
Bernie is still up 34-25 with both Warren and Bloomberg positioned to grab some delegates .
There is one poll from the same period that has Bernie way out in front 43/24 , but it ’ s probably an outlier .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ positioned to win in Maine , but its small number of delegates will wind up being split up between four people so there won ’ t much convention treasure heading Sanders ’ way .
Virginia is considerably different .
Coming out of Nevada , Bernie had a nine-point lead there .
But as of this morning , we ’ re seeing an almost 25 point shift with Biden taking a 15 point lead .
The new RCP average post-South Carolin shows Biden up 42/25 !
Both Warren and Bloomberg are still potentially in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , hovering just above the 15 % mark .
If these numbers hold up , Sanders will still get some additional delegates , but Uncle Joe will take more .
Potentially those delegate figures will be diluted by the third and fourth place finishers .
And finally , we come to Tennessee .
The Volunteer State ’ s 64 delegates are also in flux .
Sanders was well ahead after Nevada , but that shock poll from Data for Progress is now giving it to Biden 34/27 over Sanders .
Even worse for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ positioned to likely pick up some delegates as well , so it will be another small delegate pool to fish from .
I realize we ’ re putting a lot of faith primarily in one poll from a lefty firm , but they ’ ve been tracking fairly closely to the other major polling outfits .
And unless they ’ ve really dropped the ball all of a sudden , South Carolina may have pulled Joe Biden ’ s fat out of the fire and set him on track to either take the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wipe out nearly all of Bernie ’ s lead .
The big questions will be answered in California and Texas .
If Sanders can hang on there he ’ ll still be in viable shape .
But if the Joementum wipes out his major leads in those states , Bernie ’ s path begins to look almost impossibly steep .
Let ’ s get to the delegate widget , folks .

UPDATE: (Jazz) As anticipated, Joe Biden has taken a commanding win in Virginia while Bernie Sanders took his home state of Vermont.
(Original post continues below)
In this thread, we’ll cover four races from the eastern time zone because… I’m old and I go to bed early. (There. I said it.) If you’d asked me 48 hours ago how these states were going to fall, I would have told you Biden would pick up one of them solidly (North Carolina) and Bernie Sanders would probably take the other three with varying margins of victory. Today, however, that’s all gone out the window. Particularly considering that late round of polling that Allahpundit covered earlier, the Joementum may indeed be both real and spectacular unless you’re a Bernie Bro. We’ll have the usual live-tracking widgets in our main Super Tuesday results thread, but you’ll be able to follow the split of the delegates at the bottom of this post if any of these are the races you’re most interested in.
Let’s start with North Carolina, which was considered to be one of Joe Biden’s safe states even before the South Carolina explosion because the two states share a lot of the same political DNA. The RCP average already had Biden up 37/23 over Sanders with Bloomberg hovering just below the 15% cutoff for delegates. But the last poll out this morning shows a major shift in Uncle Joe’s direction. He’s sitting at 44% to Sanders’ 17.6. Bloomberg drops off the delegate radar with barely 10%. Unless everyone is wildly off the mark, Biden blows this one out of the water.
Moving on to Maine, Sanders was previously up by 14 and this is one state where even the shock polls from this morning don’t show more than sliver of a shift toward Biden. Bernie is still up 34-25 with both Warren and Bloomberg positioned to grab some delegates. There is one poll from the same period that has Bernie way out in front 43/24, but it’s probably an outlier. Bottom line? Bernie seems to be positioned to win in Maine, but its small number of delegates will wind up being split up between four people so there won’t much convention treasure heading Sanders’ way.
Virginia is considerably different. Coming out of Nevada, Bernie had a nine-point lead there. But as of this morning, we’re seeing an almost 25 point shift with Biden taking a 15 point lead. The new RCP average post-South Carolin shows Biden up 42/25! Both Warren and Bloomberg are still potentially in the hunt for a couple of delegates, hovering just above the 15% mark. If these numbers hold up, Sanders will still get some additional delegates, but Uncle Joe will take more. Potentially those delegate figures will be diluted by the third and fourth place finishers.
And finally, we come to Tennessee. The Volunteer State’s 64 delegates are also in flux. Sanders was well ahead after Nevada, but that shock poll from Data for Progress is now giving it to Biden 34/27 over Sanders. Even worse for Bernie, both Warren and Bloomberg are positioned to likely pick up some delegates as well, so it will be another small delegate pool to fish from.
I realize we’re putting a lot of faith primarily in one poll from a lefty firm, but they’ve been tracking fairly closely to the other major polling outfits. And unless they’ve really dropped the ball all of a sudden, South Carolina may have pulled Joe Biden’s fat out of the fire and set him on track to either take the lead in delegates tonight or at least wipe out nearly all of Bernie’s lead. The big questions will be answered in California and Texas. If Sanders can hang on there he’ll still be in viable shape. But if the Joementum wipes out his major leads in those states, Bernie’s path begins to look almost impossibly steep.
Let’s get to the delegate widget, folks.


hotair--2020-03-03--Super Tuesday open thread: Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Arkansas

His entire argument for nominating him is that he ’ ll unleash the youth vote in November .
He can ’ t even unleash it now !
Update : The only candidate left who ’ s spent less on ads than Joe Biden is Tulsi Gabbard , notes Chris Cillizza .
If Joe cleans up tonight , it ’ ll be a lab-quality experiment that a candidate with very , very high name recognition doesn ’ t need much advertising to parlay one big win into a national electoral force .
We could start with a few paragraphs on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all about that already if you read this post .
And even if you didn ’ t , this new national poll from Morning Consult should tell you all you need to know .
Two days ago Bernie led 29/26 .
Today ?
In almost 15 years of blogging elections I don ’ t know if I ’ ve ever seen a momentum shift like that .
It ’ s anyone ’ s guess how big the break towards Biden might be tonight coast to coast now that Buttigieg and Klobuchar have endorsed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggest he ’ ll win everywhere ; he ’ s all but certain to finish behind Bernie in the most delegate-rich state on the map , in fact .
But no one should be surprised if Biden outperforms his polling this evening the same way he did in South Carolina a few days ago .
In particular , he may blow the doors off in more than one of the states I ’ m covering .
The deep south is Biden country thanks to the large share of black voters in the primaries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but Biden is now favored in FiveThirtyEight ’ s model to finish first there too .
You can think of these four contests as being on a spectrum of certainty , in fact : 1 .
Alabama ’ s electorate was 54 percent African-American in the 2016 primary .
That ’ s a Biden landslide in the making .
2 .
Arkansas ’ s electorate tilts towards whites but more than a quarter of voters there in 2016 were black .
Hillary Clinton , a semi-native daughter , handled Bernie easily in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have little difficulty too , especially at a moment when he ’ s surging nationally .
FiveThirtyEight gives him a 69 percent chance of winning with Mike Bloomberg , not Bernie , the biggest threat to defeat him .
The new Data for Progress poll that I wrote about this morning found Biden ahead by 13 points .
3 .
Oklahoma was a Bernie state in the 2016 primary , with Sanders defeating Clinton by a comfortable 10-point margin .
African-Americans were just 14 percent of the primary electorate four years ago , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Even so , Data for Progress found him up seven points there over the weekend .
FiveThirtyEight actually gives him better odds of winning here , 78 percent , than in Arkansas .
4 .
Texas is the real prize tonight and the outcome that ’ s most in doubt .
Sift through the polling over the last few months and you ’ ll find that the state has been bouncy .
Right up until the eve of the Iowa caucus Biden was leading steadily , sometimes by blowout margins .
Then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ things took a turn : Sanders led eight straight polls of Texas between mid-February and the start of March .
An Emerson poll taken on Saturday and Sunday found him still ahead by five — but today ’ s Data for Progress survey shows Biden surging back into a narrow two-point lead .
It ’ s anyone ’ s ballgame , although FiveThirtyEight narrowly favors Biden ( 55 percent chance to win ) over Sanders ( 43 percent ) partly because of Joementum and partly because Hillary won this state handily in 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rally in Dallas featuring Buttigieg , Klobuchar , and Texas ’ s own Beto O ’ Rourke may help too .
It may be , in fact , that the outcome in Texas drives the national media narrative on the race tomorrow .
The state would be closely watched tonight regardless since it ’ s the second-biggest delegate haul at stake and famously trended purple in the 2018 midterms , but because California takes so long to count its votes there ’ s apt to be no clarity from the west coast when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state of play late tonight .
If Biden stuns Bernie with an easy win in Texas — or vice versa — that ’ ll be taken as a leading indicator of who ’ s likely to end up as the nominee .
Especially since Texas is racially diverse and the two key minority groups there are expected to go different ways .
Will Bernie ’ s Latino base prevail or will Joe ’ s base of black voters ?
The Texas electorate was 32 percent Latino and 19 percent black four years ago @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you ’ re following returns , don ’ t get completely caught up in the Biden vs. Bernie showdown .
Remember that each of them has an also-ran candidate crowding their “ lane ” of the primary who may reach the magic number of 15 percent viability statewide and in individual districts , which means that that candidate will get a cut of the state ’ s total pool of delegates .
In the four I ’ m covering here , it ’ s Biden who has to worry about an also-ran more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the X factor , having spent a combined $ 66 million in these states — including $ 52 million in Texas alone — to try to get a piece of the delegate pie .
Some of the biggest suspense this evening is whether Bloomberg ’ s support will hang in there at levels of 15 percent or better , which will reduce the delegate haul that the winner will get from a particular state , or whether Joementum will carry some critical mass of Bloomberg ’ s voters into Biden ’ s column @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a clean sweep of all four with Bloomy missing the 15 percent threshold in each .
Not only will that mean a delegate bonanza for Joe but it might convince Bloomberg to quit immediately .
And of course the same goes for Bernie and Elizabeth Warren elsewhere .
Any place where Sanders wins but Warren clears the 15 percent bar — in California , possibly — means a lighter haul of delegates for Bernie .
And given the way things are going between him and Biden , every delegate counts .
Thanks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before we know how all of the delegates at stake nationally tonight were awarded among the candidates .
But here ’ s a rule of thumb from Cory Booker ’ s former campaign manager about how to judge if it was a good or bad showing by Bernie : As I write this on Tuesday afternoon , Nate Silver ’ s model suddenly has Biden ’ s odds of winning a plurality ( not a majority ) of delegates before the convention at 65 percent .
Expectations for Joementum are sky high — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Alabama and Oklahoma at 8 p.m .
ET , in Arkansas at 8:30 ET , and in Texas at 8 and 9 p.m ET .
Updates will be posted at the top of this thread .
One question to bear in mind as this gets going : Will coronavirus jitters affect turnout ?
I ask because , in reading up on Texas today , I ran across this story about some poll workers not showing up to work for fear of catching the disease , leading to delays at some polling places @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nationally , that might explain why .
And that might bode well for Sanders , whose cultish followers are more likely to show up to serve The Cause than the “ meh , fine , I ’ ll vote for Joe ” moderate contingent .

Update: Okay, one more update. Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report is studying the Texas map and estimating how many votes are still out — and he’s detecting a distinct tinge of Joementum:
I've seen enough. Projection: Joe Biden wins the Texas primary. — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 4, 2020
It’ll probably be hours before a major network makes that call, but Wasserman is rarely wrong.
Update: With almost 27 percent reporting in Texas, Biden has begun to cut into Bernie’s four- to five-point lead. It’s down to three now, 28.5/25.5. I’m going to bow out on that note, in the expectation that we have many hours to go before the count is finished. (Texas has been known not to report final results until the day after the election.) Looks like a stalemate is shaping up — although, again, Bernie would really like to have this one so that he can say he took the biggest states on the map while the media is buzzing about “Joementum.”
Update: California was called promptly for Bernie at 11 p.m. ET, suggesting a comfortable win there. That’ll offset a chunk of Biden’s delegate gains elsewhere tonight. But the tight race in Texas means there won’t be a significant delegate advantage for one man or the other from the result.
Update: An interesting question at FiveThirtyEight: Does it matter much at this point what happens in Texas and California?
In light of Biden’s big upset in Minnesota and the fact that this is now his seventh win of the evening — he’s also leading in Massachusetts (which would be another big upset) and Maine — how much do California and Texas matter at this point for Sanders, especially if the result in Texas is super close? In other words, as we near 11 p.m. on the East Coast, how much of this “Biden surges” narrative is intractable?
Bernie would like to win both, by whatever margins, just to have some meaningful victories to point to tonight. But realistically it looks like we’re headed towards a close finish in Texas regardless of which candidate wins; at the moment, Mike Bloomberg is also north of the 15 percent threshold for viability, meaning that he’ll get some delegates out of Texas too. That means the delegate haul for the statewide winner should be relatively modest. Don’t get me wrong — every delegate counts. But Bernie’s obviously not going to assert himself as the clear frontrunner in the race tonight as everyone expected a week ago, especially with Biden having notched two momentous upsets in Massachusetts and Minnesota and an impressive victory in Virginia. I mean…
Kornacki predicts that Biden will have an 80-90 delegate lead over Bernie when all the non-California ballots are counted. "Biden can get out tonight ahead in delegates." — Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) March 4, 2020
Update: Alabama was called more than two hours ago, but with about a third of precincts reporting Bernie is hovering at around 16 percent of the vote. If he slips below 15 percent, Biden’s delegate haul from the state will increase. Which means Bernie’s presumptive victory in California will do even less than expected in padding his national delegate count vis-a-vis Biden.
Update: The count in Texas is slow but Bernie’s four- to five-point lead has held up so far.
Update: And at a few minutes before 10 p.m. ET, the WSJ projects Arkansas will also go for Joe Biden. Texas is the last state on the board here. I hope we get a result before the wee hours. In the meantime, let’s not overlook the raw insanity of not just what Biden’s doing tonight but how he’s done it:
Joe Biden is mopping the floor in states that he never visited, where he opened zero field offices, and where he spent next to nothing on TV. — Matt Viser (@mviser) March 4, 2020
Update: Ah, here’s a fun result from Texas while we wait for the presidential results:
https://twitter.com/brent_peabody/status/1235033222548987904
Cisneros was the most well-known primary challenger to a Democratic incumbent backed by AOC this year, and she’s fallen flat here. I wonder if that result would have been different if not for the surge in Joementum over the past 72 hours. Biden’s strong showing tonight may have brought more Cueller-friendly moderate Texas voters than anyone was expecting.
Update: An excellent point:
Oklahoma is the cleanest test tonight of how much of Sanders’s 2016 vote was simply anti-Clinton. In 2016 exit poll, Sanders won OK independents by 48 points, and only lost moderates by 1 point. Tonight he’s up just 14 with independents, losing moderates by 36. #SuperTuesday — Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) March 4, 2020
How much of Bernie’s “revolution” is/was just anti-Hillary sentiment that’s now petered out?
Update: Here’s Joementum captured in a single data set, and why Biden has hope of pulling it out in Texas tonight.
Decided in the last few days via @CNN exit polls: AL: 62% Biden, 13% Sanders
TN: 61% Biden, 16% Sanders
VA: 60% Biden, 17% Sanders
MN: 55% Biden, 21% Sanders
TX: 49% Biden, 21% Sanders
OK: 45% Biden, 17% Sanders
NC: 43% Biden, 22% Sanders
ME: 42% Biden, 19% Sanders — Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) March 4, 2020
Update: Sounds like it’ll be tight in Texas:
The Texas exit poll confirms what we're seeing in the results: a very tight race here between Biden & Sanders. A reason why: a third of the electorate is Hispanic, & Sanders won 45-24 among them. — Taniel (@Taniel) March 4, 2020
Update: Even if Biden ends up narrowly losing Texas and California, he’s having a good night nationally and Bloomberg very much is not. Which may end up granting him his fondest short-term wish, a total resolution of the “muddle in the middle.” Ahem:
NBC News: Mike Bloomberg to reasses his campaign tomorrow — Jesse Rodriguez (@JesseRodriguez) March 4, 2020
Update: It took 68 minutes of returns but the AP has now called Oklahoma for Biden. He’s up by 12 points with 75 percent reporting. It seems all but certain that he’ll win Arkansas too now, so it’s all down to Texas for a clean sweep of these four.
Update: Still very early in Texas but right now Sanders, Biden, and Mike Bloomberg are all north of the 15 percent threshold and Elizabeth Warren is on the cusp. If all four clear the bar, even a Bernie statewide victory won’t produce the sort of delegate windfall for him that it might otherwise have.
Update: Ah, a good note for Bernie in the Texas exit poll, per CNN: 77 percent of Texas voters said they decided on their vote early, before the last few days. Maybe Joementum will be muted there.
Update: Is the surprisingly tight early vote in Texas less of a good omen for Biden than we think? Nate Cohn makes the case:
It's tough to game this out.
On the one hand, this is a good result for Biden compared to our expectations
OTOH, early voters are old and so maybe the election day vote won't be as great as you think if it's disproportionately young https://t.co/TkLZLk3r2E — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 4, 2020
More context from Henry Olsen:
For people following the TX early vote, it's almost all from Dallas and Harris (Houston) counties. This is the black vote's base. Latino San Antonio (Bexar) and El Paso counties not in, and Austin (Travis) not in either. Expect Bernie to lead the early vote once they drop. — Henry Olsen (@henryolsenEPPC) March 4, 2020
Yep, the AP has Bernie ahead by six points with 21 percent of precincts reporting. Now we wait to see if the Election Day vote shows up in Texas for Biden as forcefully as it has elsewhere.
Update: Still no call in Oklahoma, but with nearly two-thirds of precincts reporting Biden leads Sanders by six points. He seems headed for a win there too, although not by blowout margins a la Virginia. On the other hand, OK was a Bernie state in 2016. He’s losing, not gaining, ground.
Sanders's pledge to bring new voters into his movement seems fairly empty in the results we're seeing so far. His coalition has shrunk since 2016, not grown. — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 4, 2020
Update: Another good omen for Biden from Texas:
Dallas County, TX (early vote): Biden 27%
Sanders 25%
Bloomberg 20%
Warren 11%
Buttigieg 9% If Biden won the early vote there, it's a good omen for his prospects statewide. — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 4, 2020
Sure looks like he’s going to sweep all four states I’m covering here.
Update: Nate Cohn of the NYT says Biden is now favored to win the most delegates tonight — a shocking turnabout given the expectations around 120 hours ago that Bernie would run up the score on Super Tuesday.
Update: FiveThirtyEight notes that the electorate in tonight was *not* majority African-American, as it was four years ago. Whites were 51 percent of voters. Didn’t matter for Joe: He won them by 27 points.
Update: You’d expect early voting in Texas, a supposedly tight race, to skew towards Bernie since many of those ballots were cast when Sanders was dominating the race. But that’s not what we see:
Batch of TX early votes (Buttigieg at 9%, Klob at 4%) show Biden nearly tied, so he's probably won there too. pic.twitter.com/OTvJhQGTdH — Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) March 4, 2020
Literally one week ago we were gaming out Super Tuesday as the night Sanders would become the de facto presumptive nominee. It may turn out to be the night *Biden* becomes the presumptive nominee.
Update: Will Bernie hit the 15 percent mark in Alabama and qualify for delegates there, or will Biden take the whole haul? Hmmmm:
Biden leading exit polls in AL roughly 60% to 20% over Sanders. The key question is whether Sanders hits 15% in #AL07, the only African-American majority district in the state. If not, it's a four-delegate swing for Biden. — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 4, 2020
Update: It’s 8 p.m. and the polls are finally closed in Alabama and Oklahoma. The latter is momentarily too close to call but Alabama has been called — a Biden landslide, as expected, thanks to its majority African-American electorate. This was a foregone conclusion; the real stunners thus far this evening are North Carolina and Virginia, where Biden is north of 50 percent with more than 70 percent of the vote in. He’s blowing the doors off there, in a state where Bernie competed hard.
Update: Based on the results in Virginia and North Carolina — two states that seemed close-ish just a week ago — Joementum is very, very real. How real?
If Biden can win TX and keep CA within single digits, he'll likely exit Super Tuesday with a delegate lead that's close to insurmountable. — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 4, 2020
Update: A good early omen for Bernie?
Update: A poor early omen for Bernie:
Breaking news: young people still don't vote. In NBC News exit poll, 13 percent of voters were between 18-29 — Shannon Pettypiece (@spettypi) March 3, 2020
His entire argument for nominating him is that he’ll unleash the youth vote in November. He can’t even unleash it now!
Update: The only candidate left who’s spent less on ads than Joe Biden is Tulsi Gabbard, notes Chris Cillizza. If Joe cleans up tonight, it’ll be a lab-quality experiment that a candidate with very, very high name recognition doesn’t need much advertising to parlay one big win into a national electoral force.
***
We could start with a few paragraphs on the state of Joementum, but you know all about that already if you read this post. And even if you didn’t, this new national poll from Morning Consult should tell you all you need to know. Two days ago Bernie led 29/26. Today?
Bro.
In almost 15 years of blogging elections I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a momentum shift like that. It’s anyone’s guess how big the break towards Biden might be tonight coast to coast now that Buttigieg and Klobuchar have endorsed him. That’s not to suggest he’ll win everywhere; he’s all but certain to finish behind Bernie in the most delegate-rich state on the map, in fact. But no one should be surprised if Biden outperforms his polling this evening the same way he did in South Carolina a few days ago.
In particular, he may blow the doors off in more than one of the states I’m covering. The deep south is Biden country thanks to the large share of black voters in the primaries there. The southwest is less predictable, but Biden is now favored in FiveThirtyEight’s model to finish first there too. You can think of these four contests as being on a spectrum of certainty, in fact:
1. Alabama’s electorate was 54 percent African-American in the 2016 primary. That’s a Biden landslide in the making.
2. Arkansas’s electorate tilts towards whites but more than a quarter of voters there in 2016 were black. Hillary Clinton, a semi-native daughter, handled Bernie easily in 2016 because of it. Biden should have little difficulty too, especially at a moment when he’s surging nationally. FiveThirtyEight gives him a 69 percent chance of winning with Mike Bloomberg, not Bernie, the biggest threat to defeat him. The new Data for Progress poll that I wrote about this morning found Biden ahead by 13 points.
3. Oklahoma was a Bernie state in the 2016 primary, with Sanders defeating Clinton by a comfortable 10-point margin. African-Americans were just 14 percent of the primary electorate four years ago, making this a heavier lift for Joe. Even so, Data for Progress found him up seven points there over the weekend. FiveThirtyEight actually gives him better odds of winning here, 78 percent, than in Arkansas.
4. Texas is the real prize tonight and the outcome that’s most in doubt. Sift through the polling over the last few months and you’ll find that the state has been bouncy. Right up until the eve of the Iowa caucus Biden was leading steadily, sometimes by blowout margins. Then Bernie won Iowa and New Hampshire and things took a turn: Sanders led eight straight polls of Texas between mid-February and the start of March. An Emerson poll taken on Saturday and Sunday found him still ahead by five — but today’s Data for Progress survey shows Biden surging back into a narrow two-point lead. It’s anyone’s ballgame, although FiveThirtyEight narrowly favors Biden (55 percent chance to win) over Sanders (43 percent) partly because of Joementum and partly because Hillary won this state handily in 2016. Last night’s party unity rally in Dallas featuring Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Texas’s own Beto O’Rourke may help too.
It may be, in fact, that the outcome in Texas drives the national media narrative on the race tomorrow. The state would be closely watched tonight regardless since it’s the second-biggest delegate haul at stake and famously trended purple in the 2018 midterms, but because California takes so long to count its votes there’s apt to be no clarity from the west coast when reporters sit down to weigh the overall state of play late tonight. If Biden stuns Bernie with an easy win in Texas — or vice versa — that’ll be taken as a leading indicator of who’s likely to end up as the nominee. Especially since Texas is racially diverse and the two key minority groups there are expected to go different ways. Will Bernie’s Latino base prevail or will Joe’s base of black voters? The Texas electorate was 32 percent Latino and 19 percent black four years ago. Watch those numbers tonight.
If you’re following returns, don’t get completely caught up in the Biden vs. Bernie showdown. Remember that each of them has an also-ran candidate crowding their “lane” of the primary who may reach the magic number of 15 percent viability statewide and in individual districts, which means that that candidate will get a cut of the state’s total pool of delegates. In the four I’m covering here, it’s Biden who has to worry about an also-ran more so than Bernie: Mike Bloomberg is the X factor, having spent a combined $66 million in these states — including $52 million in Texas alone — to try to get a piece of the delegate pie. Some of the biggest suspense this evening is whether Bloomberg’s support will hang in there at levels of 15 percent or better, which will reduce the delegate haul that the winner will get from a particular state, or whether Joementum will carry some critical mass of Bloomberg’s voters into Biden’s column. The best-case scenario for Joe tonight is a clean sweep of all four with Bloomy missing the 15 percent threshold in each. Not only will that mean a delegate bonanza for Joe but it might convince Bloomberg to quit immediately.
And of course the same goes for Bernie and Elizabeth Warren elsewhere. Any place where Sanders wins but Warren clears the 15 percent bar — in California, possibly — means a lighter haul of delegates for Bernie. And given the way things are going between him and Biden, every delegate counts.
Thanks to California, it may be weeks before we know how all of the delegates at stake nationally tonight were awarded among the candidates. But here’s a rule of thumb from Cory Booker’s former campaign manager about how to judge if it was a good or bad showing by Bernie:
Agree with Mark that this is the likely spread once all is said and done – Sanders by somewhere between 50-250 delegates. Four days ago I would have said 150-350 so that is a pretty dramatic shift. https://t.co/2DF1axYLYa — Addisu Demissie (@ASDem) March 3, 2020
As I write this on Tuesday afternoon, Nate Silver’s model suddenly has Biden’s odds of winning a plurality (not a majority) of delegates before the convention at 65 percent. Expectations for Joementum are sky high — maybe unreasonably so. The polls close in Alabama and Oklahoma at 8 p.m. ET, in Arkansas at 8:30 ET, and in Texas at 8 and 9 p.m ET. Updates will be posted at the top of this thread. One question to bear in mind as this gets going: Will coronavirus jitters affect turnout? I ask because, in reading up on Texas today, I ran across this story about some poll workers not showing up to work for fear of catching the disease, leading to delays at some polling places. If turnout is lower than expected nationally, that might explain why. And that might bode well for Sanders, whose cultish followers are more likely to show up to serve The Cause than the “meh, fine, I’ll vote for Joe” moderate contingent.


hotair--2020-03-03--Super Tuesday open thread: California, Colorado, Utah

California is the big prize today with 415 delegates .
It ’ s also the state that , as of last week , was expected to be a blowout for Bernie Sanders .
Last Friday the LA Times reported he held a 2-1 lead in the state .
Joe Biden ’ s numbers were down into single digits in the same poll .
And that wasn ’ t the only poll showing Sanders with a commanding lead in the state .
Glenn Greenwald highlighted this USA Today poll : But a lot has happened since both of those polls were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ win in South Carolina and Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar both dropped out and endorsed Biden .
Suddenly , it looks like Biden could pull out a reasonably strong second place in California instead of 3rd or 4th place : The RCP average shows Sanders winning over Biden by 12 points .
So if Biden does worse than that it might be a bad night for him and if he does better than that he ’ s having a pretty good night .
This Decision Desk widget will automatically update with results once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Californians vote by mail we won ’ t have final results tonight or even this week .
Still we should get an idea of how things are going once polls close at 11 pm ET .
Colorado polling looks a lot like polling in California .
As of last week , Sanders was in the mid-thirties with his closest competitor ( Elizabeth Warren ) somewhere between 11-20 points behind .
But once again , those polls were taken before South Carolina so there ’ s no telling what impact that might have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ open in Colorado since last Monday so some of the people who might have been impacted by the late Buttigieg/Klobuchar endorsements of Biden have already cast their votes .
The last polling published today showed Biden surging into a statistical tie with Warren .
There are 67 delegates at stake .
Polls close in Colorado at 9 pm ET .
Utah has just 29 delegates and there hasn ’ t been a lot of polling in the state .
RCP shows just three polls but they do , perhaps , indicate a late @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was in the high 20s with Biden 15 points behind .
But a Data for Progress poll completed Monday shows Biden surging to within 6 points of Sanders .
And even that poll started before South Carolina ’ s results , so it ’ s possible we ’ re still not seeing the full extent of the swing toward Biden in the last few days .
Polls close in Utah at 10 pm ET .
I ’ ll update this post throughout the night .

Update 12:08 am ET: Just 24% of the California vote is counted at this point. Current results from the NY Times.
Sanders 28.4%
Bloomberg 19%
Biden 16.8%
Update 11:01 pm ET: Fox News calls California for Sanders and here’s the call from the AP as well.
BREAKING: Bernie Sanders wins Democratic presidential primary in California, claiming biggest prize on Super Tuesday. https://t.co/FZHkka7C1w — The Associated Press (@AP) March 4, 2020
Update 10:30 pm ET: Sanders wins Utah.
BREAKING: Sen. Bernie Sanders wins Utah Democratic Primary, NBC News projects. https://t.co/zt8BBZiDiF pic.twitter.com/F50HO2VbTr — NBC News (@NBCNews) March 4, 2020
With 62% of the vote in, NBC has Sanders at 31.5% followed by Bloomberg (19%), Warren (15.3%), Buttigieg (13.9%), and Joe Biden in 5th place at 12.8 percent.
Update 9:43 pm ET: Sanders has won Colorado.
Bernie Sanders wins the Colorado Democratic presidential primary, his second victory on a Super Tuesday that has seen Joe Biden win a trio of Southern states. https://t.co/f3y6VnAzO8 — The Associated Press (@AP) March 4, 2020
With 77% of the vote in, NBC News reports Sanders has 36.3%, Bloomberg is 2nd with 23.5%, and Biden is 3rd with 20.5%.
Why wasn’t there a Biden surge in Colorado? Probably because of early voting:
No surprise that the Biden surge came to a halt in Colorado: it's the state where advance vote made up the largest share of the likely electorate–60 percent returned by SC, by our estimates — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 4, 2020
[End updates]
California is the big prize today with 415 delegates. It’s also the state that, as of last week, was expected to be a blowout for Bernie Sanders. Last Friday the LA Times reported he held a 2-1 lead in the state. Joe Biden’s numbers were down into single digits in the same poll. And that wasn’t the only poll showing Sanders with a commanding lead in the state. Glenn Greenwald highlighted this USA Today poll:
“Sanders holds a commanding double-digit lead on the cusp of California's Dem primary, a new Suffolk University/USA TODAY statewide poll finds”: likely to win most if not all of delegates, making "it much more difficult for other candidates to catch up” https://t.co/FPnrChfQiS pic.twitter.com/xj6sd5ccwK — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) March 2, 2020
But a lot has happened since both of those polls were taken. Joe Biden had a big win in South Carolina and Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar both dropped out and endorsed Biden. Suddenly, it looks like Biden could pull out a reasonably strong second place in California instead of 3rd or 4th place:
The RCP average shows Sanders winning over Biden by 12 points. So if Biden does worse than that it might be a bad night for him and if he does better than that he’s having a pretty good night.
This Decision Desk widget will automatically update with results once the polls close. Because a lot of Californians vote by mail we won’t have final results tonight or even this week. Still we should get an idea of how things are going once polls close at 11 pm ET.
Colorado polling looks a lot like polling in California. As of last week, Sanders was in the mid-thirties with his closest competitor (Elizabeth Warren) somewhere between 11-20 points behind. But once again, those polls were taken before South Carolina so there’s no telling what impact that might have. Also, early voting has been open in Colorado since last Monday so some of the people who might have been impacted by the late Buttigieg/Klobuchar endorsements of Biden have already cast their votes. The last polling published today showed Biden surging into a statistical tie with Warren. There are 67 delegates at stake. Polls close in Colorado at 9 pm ET.
Utah has just 29 delegates and there hasn’t been a lot of polling in the state. RCP shows just three polls but they do, perhaps, indicate a late surge for Biden. Last month Sanders was in the high 20s with Biden 15 points behind. But a Data for Progress poll completed Monday shows Biden surging to within 6 points of Sanders. And even that poll started before South Carolina’s results, so it’s possible we’re still not seeing the full extent of the swing toward Biden in the last few days. Polls close in Utah at 10 pm ET.
I’ll update this post throughout the night.


hotair--2020-03-03--Super Tuesday open thread: Minnesota, Massachusetts, Vermont; <span class='red'>Update: Bernie wins

Super Tuesday open thread: Minnesota, Massachusetts, Vermont; Update: Bernie wins VT

7:19 — Ah , what might have been … 7:12 — NBC says Joementum looks pretty real , at least from the exit polling : All of the news agencies made an early call for Biden in Virginia , which unlike Vermont was supposed to be competitive .
In fact , a couple of weeks ago , Biden was running third in polling there .
His South Carolina win has breathed new life into his campaign , but he probably won ’ t be a major figure in the other two states I ’ m covering in this thread .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ but they waited a whole two minutes for this call : CBS and NBC also called it for Bernie , who should win this one in a rout .
We haven ’ t yet seen any numbers posted .
It ’ ll be another hour before we get to the more competitive battle in Massachusetts .
Update , 6:53 pm ET : Still a couple of hours to go before polls close here in MN , but this is probably not what Democrats hoped to see here : Welcome to Super Tuesday , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The race ’ s Great Socialist Hope has to score well in all three states not just to boost his delegate haul , but also to push another of his competitors out of the race .
Sanders should win his home state of Vermont easily , but Elizabeth Warren will fight like hell to hold onto her home state of Massachusetts , and might have some draw in Minnesota now that Amy Klobuchar has pulled out .
Massachusetts looks like a real battleground at the moment , with 91 delegates up for grabs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Data for Progress shows Warren up two over both Sanders and Joe Biden , 28/26/26 , which is a big step up … for Biden .
It ’ s the first time Biden shows up over 20 % in any poll tracked by RCP since last September , when Warren began her short-lived polling surge .
If Biden can score 25 or more delegates out of Massachusetts , that will be a surprisingly good rebound for him .
If Bernie can ’ t shut out either Biden or Warren in his neighboring state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in MA — then it ’ s tough to see how Warren feels compelled to get out of the race at this time .
The same firm sees the same three-way split in Minnesota , too , only with Sanders on top .
In this case , Klobuchar ’ s exit seems to have benefited all three candidates nearly equally ; it now stands 32 % for Sanders , 27 % for Biden , and 21 % for Warren .
Mike Bloomberg gets 16 % in this poll , a result which would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s 75 delegates .
A four-way split wouldn ’ t help Sanders much , although it could help slightly in keeping Biden from winning more than he ’ d normally get .
This state was pretty Bernie-crazy in 2016 , however , and I wonder if 32 % isn ’ t just a tad low in 2020 too .
Speaking of Klobuchar ’ s exit , I found it surprising that she didn ’ t stick around through Super Tuesday .
Yes , the Black Lives Matter protest would have been uncomfortable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Klobuchar is still very much well-liked here .
There wouldn ’ t have been any other path to the nomination for her , as I wrote last week in the Washington Examiner Magazine , but at least she would have gone down fighting .
Polls close in these three states at different times ; Vermont at 7 pm ET , Massachusetts at 8 , and Minnesota at 9 , which is about the functional limit of our social lives anyway .
As usual with live blogs , updates will come at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the latest updates on top .
Our friends at Decision Desk HQ do not have live-results widgets for these states , so be sure to keep an eye on all the other widgets in our live-results post .
Meanwhile , I ’ ll post the delegate tracker , which started off in a very close split between Sanders and Biden , 60/53 , with 3,825 delegates left to win .
If it ’ s this close on the other side of tonight , it ’ s going to be a long slog @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , too , here are a couple of points about Minnesota in the ABC News exit polls .
Maybe Klobuchar was heading for a beating here after all .
These make Minnesota look like Bernie Country , at least in the primary .

10:53 — This is the biggest surprise of the night. Not only did Warren fail to win her home state, Sanders also lost his neighboring state — to a guy who barely campaigned there:
Joe Biden wins the Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary, upsetting Elizabeth Warren in her home state. https://t.co/OF0wkw58xX — The Associated Press (@AP) March 4, 2020
Fox called it for Biden a few minutes earlier. Bernie’s still insisting that he’ll march to Milwaukee and win the nomination, but even if he gets a delegate windfall out of California, he’s going to be essentially tied with no path to a first-ballot majority for either candidate.
10:47 — 74.5% of precincts reporting in Suffolk Co (Boston and environs), and it’s now less than a point separating Sanders and Biden. Whatever else happens in Suffolk, there’s not enough votes left there to overcome Biden’s 42,000-vote lead with 56% of all precincts reporting.
10:38 — Still no call in MA, but we’re at 49% of precincts reporting and Biden’s still up by almost six points, 33.22/27.56, with Warren in third at 21.65%. Gotta think a call will come soon…
10:29 — Just to revisit an earlier point, what does Ilhan Omar’s inability to deliver Hennepin County for Bernie mean for her own political future? She endorsed Bernie and campaigned for him, but it either had no effect in her home district or perhaps even backfired. The primary for congressional races comes on August 11, and Omar already has three Democrats challenging her. More might jump in after this, or perhaps the money will line up behind one in particular.
10:28 — Forget it, he’s rolling.
Video: HERE is Biden confusing his wife for his SISTER #SuperTuesday pic.twitter.com/RYzUBkuAtd — Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) March 4, 2020
10:19 — Here’s a fun fact of the moment — with 44% of Suffolk County precincts reporting, Sanders only edges Biden by less than two points. In Boston.
10:13 — I’m inclined to go with Dave Wasserman’s call here:
Projection: Joe Biden wins the Massachusetts primary. Elizabeth Warren in serious danger of finishing third. — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 4, 2020
Nobody’s calling this yet, but I’m wondering how much longer that will be.
9:59 — Looking back to Massachusetts, Biden’s still up by five-plus points (33.59/28.18) with 30% of precincts reporting. Warren still way off the pace at 20.8%. This might be the biggest surprise of the night if Biden can hold on to win it.
9:55 — Heh.
Damn, Ilham Omar couldn’t lock it down for Bernie in Minnesota. — Katie Pavlich (@KatiePavlich) March 4, 2020
Omar’s district is mostly Hennepin County, just to be clear. What a #fail. This raises a question as to whether Omar herself might be vulnerable in the later congressional primary.
9:51 — I am a little surprised on that call. Sanders might still have some strength in Ramsey, but I suspect — and the AP must as well — that any strength would be limited to Ramsey. Dakota County will likely go with Biden, and the rest of the metro counties as well. Amy Klobuchar’s endorsement carried a significant amount of weight, it seems. Four years ago, there were a lot of Bernie yard signs in Hennepin and Ramsey.
9:48 — Looks like the AP saw what I saw in the exits and the early returns:
BREAKING: Joe Biden is projected to win the Minnesota primary, according to the AP. #SuperTuesdayResults https://t.co/AW9viBtmYZ pic.twitter.com/Bolk0D98CK — NPR (@NPR) March 4, 2020
9:35 — Our polls have only been closed 35 minutes and already we have the same percentage of precincts reporting as Massachusetts. Surprisingly, Biden’s ahead in both states with ~17% reporting, 36/28 in MA and 35/32 in MN. Ramsey County (St. Paul) hasn’t come in at all, but Biden’s edging Sanders in Hennepin 35/33 with 88% of precincts reporting. That’s a shock, given Hennepin’s academic identity.
9:15 — More from the exit polls in MN: Biden wins among college graduates of all types 34/26 over Sanders and those without college degrees, 39/34. Biden lost big among younger voters, 17/50 with voters under 45, which comprised 40% of the electorate. However, it reversed itself 50/17 among voters 45 and above, and that was 60% of the voters.
9:01 — Polls close in Minnesota. And surprise, surprise — Biden looks strong here, too. CNN’s exit poll shows Biden leading Sanders 40/27 among Democrats, who made up 69% of the voters, while trailing 32/43 among independents, who made up 25% of the electorate. Biden wins women 38/25 over Sanders (58% of voters), and only barely gets edged out among men (35/37, 42% of voters). Biden looks like a strong candidate for a win here, too.
Warren trails in all categories. Not much hope in this state for her.
8:57 — I have to admit, this does have its charm:
.@jonkarl on Biden: "[He] has basically spent nothing…we are seeing him winning and doing very well in states that he did not spend a dime in…that is a new phenomenon." https://t.co/BxTduNCjxv #SuperTuesday pic.twitter.com/MBdKh0qtzg — ABC News (@ABC) March 4, 2020
8:47 — Still tracking the vote counts in VT and MA, but so far no big changes. One broader aspect of tonight’s results is just how much better Biden’s faring in voter turnout. Remember when Sanders claimed he had the ability to generate massive turnout? Don’t see much evidence of that tonight.
In fact, with 35% of precincts reporting in VT, turnout looks significantly lower this year than in 2016. Either Bernie’s home-state voters got complacent, or they’re just not as enthused this year.
8:31 — Vermont still counting slowly, but with 27% of precincts reporting, it’s still 52/23 Sanders/Biden. That would give Biden handful of delegates. MA has only 4% of its precincts reporting so the results are unreliable, but let’s just say that it’s tracking pretty well with the exit polls.
8:11 — Holy cow, could Warren come in third in MA? CNN’s exit poll there indicates Warren might finish in the bronze slot. Look closely at the Party ID demos to figure out where it comes out. She beat Biden by four points among Dems, and Sanders beat Biden by eight points among independents, while Warren cratered with unaffiliated voters. That should leave Biden in a strong second-place finish to Sanders, and Warren without much reason to keep on going.
8:05 — Back to Vermont, where vote reporting is going slowly, it looks like Sanders is seriously underperforming against his 2016 results. With 10% of precincts reporting, he’s got 51% of the vote, where he got 86% against Clinton four years ago. Biden has 23% and might end up with a few VT delegates if this trend continues.
8:01 — Polls just closed in Massachusetts, and it looks like a tight race there — with Biden a factor after all, according to the exit polling:
NEW: Massachusetts is looking like a three-person race between Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, based on analysis of exit polls. https://t.co/oiH87hhkML #SuperTuesday — ABC News (@ABC) March 4, 2020
7:57 — Hey, it’s a real win, and it puts Bloomberg on the scoreboard for tonight — and Tulsi Gabbard, who’s still in the race:
American Samoa has reported its delegates, putting Mike Bloomberg and Tulsi Gabbard on the board for the first time in the primary. Bloomberg has four delegates and Gabbard has one so far out of American Samoa. https://t.co/dejxP1aVYS — CBS News (@CBSNews) March 4, 2020
If that’s the only delegates Bloomberg wins tonight, he’ll have blown $500 million on four delegates. So far he’s out of the money in Virginia and in Vermont, but could still pick up enough in both states to win a delegate.
7:42 — Massachusetts’ polls don’t close for another 18 minutes, but Warren says she plans to keep going after tonight:
Warren indicates that she is not dropping out Tuesday night https://t.co/ANJSIpSJhm pic.twitter.com/lnTkCuIkcA — CBS News (@CBSNews) March 4, 2020
Either she has polling showing a win in MA, or she just figures to stick around as long as the money holds out. If she can’t win in MA, she’s not going anywhere in the primaries, and she certainly won’t be a brokered-convention option. Winning your home state has to be a prerequisite, no?
7:31 — Did Biden manage to pick off a delegate in Vermont?
It'll be interesting to see if Biden squeezes a delegate out of Vermont, says @ec_schneider Sanders won it by 86% in 2016, shutting Clinton out from getting any there. If exit polling holds, then Biden might get one. Super Tuesday live analysis:https://t.co/qk7m1nyJxq — POLITICO (@politico) March 4, 2020
The reporting numbers are too small to guess the answer so far, but that might be a real surprise.
7:19 — Ah, what might have been …
The suspension of Klobuchar’s campaign seems to have had an effect on voters in Minnesota, where almost 6 in 10 said they picked their candidate within the last few days — by far the highest proportion of voters across the nation on Super Tuesday, according to early exit polls. — Matt Viser (@mviser) March 3, 2020
7:12 — NBC says Joementum looks pretty real, at least from the exit polling:
LIVE ON NBC NEWS NOW: Exit polls signal that Biden's momentum may be real. #SuperTuesday pic.twitter.com/OcuM0YuX56 — NBC News NOW (@NBCNewsNow) March 4, 2020
All of the news agencies made an early call for Biden in Virginia, which unlike Vermont was supposed to be competitive. In fact, a couple of weeks ago, Biden was running third in polling there. His South Carolina win has breathed new life into his campaign, but he probably won’t be a major figure in the other two states I’m covering in this thread.
7:03 — No big surprise here, but they waited a whole two minutes for this call:
BREAKING: Bernie Sanders will win the Vermont primary, @ABC News projects based on analysis of the exit poll. https://t.co/GucOJfKCSK #SuperTuesday pic.twitter.com/KjUSY8V4Jc — ABC News (@ABC) March 4, 2020
CBS and NBC also called it for Bernie, who should win this one in a rout. We haven’t yet seen any numbers posted. It’ll be another hour before we get to the more competitive battle in Massachusetts.
Update, 6:53 pm ET: Still a couple of hours to go before polls close here in MN, but this is probably not what Democrats hoped to see here:
At St. Paul’s Eastside Community Center, head election judge Alice Smith says turnout is hovering around 10% — quite low for this precinct. “Normally there’s a line out the door at or before 7 am [when polls open],” she said. “But there was only one today.” — Liz Sawyer (@ByLizSawyer) March 3, 2020
Original post follows …
Welcome to Super Tuesday, the Bernie Sanders Proving Ground Edition. The race’s Great Socialist Hope has to score well in all three states not just to boost his delegate haul, but also to push another of his competitors out of the race. Sanders should win his home state of Vermont easily, but Elizabeth Warren will fight like hell to hold onto her home state of Massachusetts, and might have some draw in Minnesota now that Amy Klobuchar has pulled out.
Massachusetts looks like a real battleground at the moment, with 91 delegates up for grabs. The latest poll from Democratic pollster Data for Progress shows Warren up two over both Sanders and Joe Biden, 28/26/26, which is a big step up … for Biden. It’s the first time Biden shows up over 20% in any poll tracked by RCP since last September, when Warren began her short-lived polling surge. If Biden can score 25 or more delegates out of Massachusetts, that will be a surprisingly good rebound for him. If Bernie can’t shut out either Biden or Warren in his neighboring state — if in fact Warren beats him in MA — then it’s tough to see how Warren feels compelled to get out of the race at this time.
The same firm sees the same three-way split in Minnesota, too, only with Sanders on top. In this case, Klobuchar’s exit seems to have benefited all three candidates nearly equally; it now stands 32% for Sanders, 27% for Biden, and 21% for Warren. Mike Bloomberg gets 16% in this poll, a result which would earn him a share of the state’s 75 delegates. A four-way split wouldn’t help Sanders much, although it could help slightly in keeping Biden from winning more than he’d normally get. This state was pretty Bernie-crazy in 2016, however, and I wonder if 32% isn’t just a tad low in 2020 too.
Speaking of Klobuchar’s exit, I found it surprising that she didn’t stick around through Super Tuesday. Yes, the Black Lives Matter protest would have been uncomfortable, but it would have been manageable, and Klobuchar is still very much well-liked here. There wouldn’t have been any other path to the nomination for her, as I wrote last week in the Washington Examiner Magazine, but at least she would have gone down fighting.
Polls close in these three states at different times; Vermont at 7 pm ET, Massachusetts at 8, and Minnesota at 9, which is about the functional limit of our social lives anyway. As usual with live blogs, updates will come at the top in reverse chronological order, with the latest updates on top. Our friends at Decision Desk HQ do not have live-results widgets for these states, so be sure to keep an eye on all the other widgets in our live-results post. Meanwhile, I’ll post the delegate tracker, which started off in a very close split between Sanders and Biden, 60/53, with 3,825 delegates left to win. If it’s this close on the other side of tonight, it’s going to be a long slog to the convention.
Just for fun, too, here are a couple of points about Minnesota in the ABC News exit polls. Maybe Klobuchar was heading for a beating here after all. These make Minnesota look like Bernie Country, at least in the primary.


hotair--2020-03-03--Super Tuesday: Live results

Super Tuesday: Live results

We ’ ve got one of the handiest little election widgets for you here that you ’ ll ever see , courtesy of Decision Desk HQ .
Scroll down and you ’ ll find the entire Super Tuesday map laid out before you , with results in every state automatically updated minute by minute .
You don ’ t need to manually refresh ; just keep this thread open in a tab and it ’ ll do the work for you .
If you want to see what the numbers look like in a particular state as returns are coming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for an at-a-glance view .
Or , if you want something more granular , click the arrows in the table beneath the map until you ’ ve arrived at the state you ’ re interested in .
There are two more widgets further down the page — one an updated list of the all-important national delegate totals for each candidate and the second a little bonus , the results from Alabama ’ s Senate Republican primary .
That ’ s the one where Jeff Sessions is trying to reclaim his old seat .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the primary outright but it doesn ’ t look like he ’ s going to get it , which means a runoff is coming .
And that runoff may not be kind to him , especially if he finishes second here .
Happy viewing…

We’ve got one of the handiest little election widgets for you here that you’ll ever see, courtesy of Decision Desk HQ. Scroll down and you’ll find the entire Super Tuesday map laid out before you, with results in every state automatically updated minute by minute. You don’t need to manually refresh; just keep this thread open in a tab and it’ll do the work for you. If you want to see what the numbers look like in a particular state as returns are coming in, just mouse over the map for an at-a-glance view. Or, if you want something more granular, click the arrows in the table beneath the map until you’ve arrived at the state you’re interested in. There are two more widgets further down the page — one an updated list of the all-important national delegate totals for each candidate and the second a little bonus, the results from Alabama’s Senate Republican primary. That’s the one where Jeff Sessions is trying to reclaim his old seat. He needs 50%+1 to win the primary outright but it doesn’t look like he’s going to get it, which means a runoff is coming. And that runoff may not be kind to him, especially if he finishes second here. Happy viewing…
National delegate totals:
Alabama Senate Republican primary:


hotair--2020-03-03--Hillary: Bernie wouldn't be our strongest nominee, no

I continue not to understand why she bears him such a grudge .
She won their face-off in 2016 .
He ended up endorsing her .
He campaigned for her .
If the Berniebros tipped the scales to Trump in Rust Belt states by voting for Jill Stein or staying home , well , that ’ s not Sanders ’ s fault .
So what ’ s her problem ?
Can she simply not let go of the resentment that he primaried her in the first place ?
Watch , then read on .
Right , I know , she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that he ’ d be a weak nominee .
That ’ s a perfectly defensible position .
But there are arguments to the contrary too , of course , starting with the ( increasingly far-fetched ) idea that he ’ s going to unleash a tidal wave of disaffected young voters on Election Day .
She could have remained agnostic when asked about this , allowing that the question is debatable .
But no .
And in the context of what she claimed a few weeks ago about how supposedly nobody in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hard to take what she says here as a dispassionate analysis of his relative chances .
What ’ s her problem ?
And , relatedly : If she ’ s going to talk Bernie down , why doesn ’ t she cowboy up and just flatly endorse Biden already ?
She ’ s not Obama , the well-liked prince of the party who ’ s obliged to remain neutral lest his expression of royal will influence the outcome of the race .
She could move a few votes among Hillary diehards insofar as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ haven ’ t already committed to Joe .
So why doesn ’ t she ?
Susan Rice , another Obama administration veteran , endorsed him yesterday .
Samantha Power is climbing down off the fence today : Some quality endorsements for Joe in the past 24 hours !
Maybe Hillary ’ s holding off until March 17 , when four states are on the menu — Florida , Ohio , Illinois , and Arizona — that she took from Sanders in 2016 .
Biden ’ s a safe bet to win them this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before then , there ’ s minimal risk that he ’ ll lose a tight race somewhere and she ’ ll be blamed for the “ kiss of death ” or whatever .
Of course , there ’ s always the chance that Team Joe has *asked* her not to endorse .
But even though she was highly unpopular nationally when Gallup checked in 2018 , she still scored a reasonably strong 77 percent favorable rating within her own party .
Maybe Biden fears that , although she ’ s generally well-liked among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at this point as a longstanding Bernie antagonist and embodiment of the corporate establishment that she might become a rallying point for progressives to boost turnout against him .
Meh , who cares ?
There are other critics of Sanders worth paying attention to today .
For instance , here ’ s Elizabeth Warren finally finding the nerve to attack Bernie because , unlike her , he ’ s honest about the fact that Medicare for All will require tax hikes on the middle class .
Which it certainly will .

I continue not to understand why she bears him such a grudge. She won their face-off in 2016. He ended up endorsing her. He campaigned for her. If the Berniebros tipped the scales to Trump in Rust Belt states by voting for Jill Stein or staying home, well, that’s not Sanders’s fault. So what’s her problem? Can she simply not let go of the resentment that he primaried her in the first place? Watch, then read on.
NEW: "I don't think he'd be our strongest nominee," Hillary Clinton tells @LinseyDavis on Bernie Sanders. "That's what this primary process is about. Let's see who emerges…The most important issue is who can defeat Donald Trump." https://t.co/B0TFr2i8ex pic.twitter.com/nqUS5wBomB — ABC News (@ABC) March 3, 2020
Right, I know, she’s not attacking him in claiming that he’d be a weak nominee. That’s a perfectly defensible position. But there are arguments to the contrary too, of course, starting with the (increasingly far-fetched) idea that he’s going to unleash a tidal wave of disaffected young voters on Election Day. She could have remained agnostic when asked about this, allowing that the question is debatable.
But no. And in the context of what she claimed a few weeks ago about how supposedly nobody in the Senate likes Sanders, it’s hard to take what she says here as a dispassionate analysis of his relative chances. What’s her problem?
And, relatedly: If she’s going to talk Bernie down, why doesn’t she cowboy up and just flatly endorse Biden already? She’s not Obama, the well-liked prince of the party who’s obliged to remain neutral lest his expression of royal will influence the outcome of the race. She could move a few votes among Hillary diehards insofar as there are any out there and they haven’t already committed to Joe. So why doesn’t she? Susan Rice, another Obama administration veteran, endorsed him yesterday. Samantha Power is climbing down off the fence today:
.@JoeBiden is running not to go back in time or to “unite” w/ a @GOP that now cares more about itself than the country. He is running to bring America to a place where we care for one another, where everyone is seen and included & where government has your back when you stumble. — Samantha Power (@SamanthaJPower) March 3, 2020
People see themselves in @JoeBiden and he practices what his dad preached to him: “Joey, nobody’s better than you and you’re better than nobody.” Biden’s reflexive devotion to dignity and equality are what caused him to lead the Obama admin to the right place on same-sex marriage — Samantha Power (@SamanthaJPower) March 3, 2020
Some quality endorsements for Joe in the past 24 hours!
Team Biden now includes Samantha Power and Susan Rice as well as James Comey and John Brennan. Hoo boy. — Jim Antle (@jimantle) March 3, 2020
Maybe Hillary’s holding off until March 17, when four states are on the menu — Florida, Ohio, Illinois, and Arizona — that she took from Sanders in 2016. Biden’s a safe bet to win them this year. If she endorses him right before then, there’s minimal risk that he’ll lose a tight race somewhere and she’ll be blamed for the “kiss of death” or whatever.
Of course, there’s always the chance that Team Joe has *asked* her not to endorse. But even though she was highly unpopular nationally when Gallup checked in 2018, she still scored a reasonably strong 77 percent favorable rating within her own party. Maybe Biden fears that, although she’s generally well-liked among Democrats, the left hates her sufficiently at this point as a longstanding Bernie antagonist and embodiment of the corporate establishment that she might become a rallying point for progressives to boost turnout against him.
Meh, who cares? There are other critics of Sanders worth paying attention to today. For instance, here’s Elizabeth Warren finally finding the nerve to attack Bernie because, unlike her, he’s honest about the fact that Medicare for All will require tax hikes on the middle class. Which it certainly will.


hotair--2020-03-03--Biden spokesman: We don't want James Comey's vote for Joe

A treat for you as we get ready for election returns this evening .
My instinct upon seeing a campaign publicly reject someone ’ s vote is to gasp and think “ political malpractice.
” At a minimum , it ’ s annoyingly arrogant .
Every vote is valuable , right ?
At worst , it risks offending anyone who might be sympathetic to the person whose vote was rejected .
But look who we ’ re talking about here .
No one , left or right , sympathizes with Comey .
He ’ s the guy who reopened the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 , tilting swing voters to Trump !
And the guy responsible for spearheading the Russiagate probe that embroiled the president for two years !
In fact , the potential unifying power of this tweet is such that I ’ m now projecting Joe Biden to be the 46th president of the United States .
Honest question : If O.J .
tweeted that he was voting for Biden , would Team Joe bother to say “ no thanks ” ?
No , right ?
They ’ d ignore him .
Think about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ culture such that his endorsement warrants a formal public repudiation whereas O.J.
’ s wouldn ’ t .
This wasn ’ t the only time Biden ’ s spokesman was salty today : I understand dunking on national pariah Jim Comey .
I ’ m not sure I see the strategy in dunking on a guy whom your boss is hoping will ( a ) drop out within the next 12 hours and endorse him and ( b ) plow a few hundred million bucks into supporting his quest for the nomination .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ about how a contested convention is the only way he can win the nomination .
Are they trying to bait Mike into running for three more months , eating into Biden ’ s margins with moderate voters in state after state ?
On the other hand , try to sketch a scenario in which Biden and Bernie , or Bernie and Biden , are one-two in delegates in Milwaukee and the nomination somehow ends up going to … Michael Bloomberg .
You can ’ t do it .
They ’ d have to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( likely ) third-place finisher in the race , a figure with many hundreds of fewer delegates than the top two and who emphatically does not occupy the ideological middle ground between Sanders and Biden that might make him a viable compromise candidate .
You can imagine someone like Elizabeth Warren being a compromise choice if she finished third — a very strong third , that is , not far behind the second-place candidate .
( Which won ’ t be happening . )
But Bloomberg is a raw expression of plutocracy , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to offend Berniebros .
They ’ d never tolerate him as nominee unless he were the plurality delegate leader , even though his billions could obviously buy an unprecedented advertising arsenal against Trump in the general election .
If anything , Bloomberg trying to assert himself in Milwaukee might make Bernie fans more willing to acquiesce in Biden ’ s nomination if Joe ended up with a plurality of delegates .
In lieu of an exit question , read Gabriel Sherman ’ s report this afternoon about Bloomberg ’ s advisors having nudged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race after South Carolina and endorse Biden .
Bloomy has refused , presumably for the simple reason that he wasn ’ t going to bail on a $ 500 million Super Tuesday investment before the polls even opened with him finally on the ballot .
But if he ’ s already under pressure from his own staff to quit , it seems highly likely that he ’ ll bail this week if his performance today is as underwhelming as everyone expects .
Quote from a source close to the campaign : “ It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weekend that it ’ s over and thus he will risk making Ross Perot and Ralph Nader look good if he stays in this .
”

A treat for you as we get ready for election returns this evening. My instinct upon seeing a campaign publicly reject someone’s vote is to gasp and think “political malpractice.” At a minimum, it’s annoyingly arrogant. Every vote is valuable, right? At worst, it risks offending anyone who might be sympathetic to the person whose vote was rejected.
But look who we’re talking about here. No one, left or right, sympathizes with Comey. He’s the guy who reopened the Emailgate probe right before the election in 2016, tilting swing voters to Trump! And the guy responsible for spearheading the Russiagate probe that embroiled the president for two years!
In fact, the potential unifying power of this tweet is such that I’m now projecting Joe Biden to be the 46th president of the United States.
Yes, customer service? I just received a package that I very much did not order. How can I return it, free of charge? https://t.co/NK4VrYGzT1 — Andrew Bates (@AndrewBatesNC) March 3, 2020
Honest question: If O.J. tweeted that he was voting for Biden, would Team Joe bother to say “no thanks”? No, right? They’d ignore him. Think about the niche Comey now enjoys in American political culture such that his endorsement warrants a formal public repudiation whereas O.J.’s wouldn’t.
This wasn’t the only time Biden’s spokesman was salty today:
Buy yourself a 10,000th violin. https://t.co/ksRlSmtZhK — Andrew Bates (@AndrewBatesNC) March 3, 2020
I understand dunking on national pariah Jim Comey. I’m not sure I see the strategy in dunking on a guy whom your boss is hoping will (a) drop out within the next 12 hours and endorse him and (b) plow a few hundred million bucks into supporting his quest for the nomination. Especially when he was chattering this morning about how a contested convention is the only way he can win the nomination. Are they trying to bait Mike into running for three more months, eating into Biden’s margins with moderate voters in state after state?
On the other hand, try to sketch a scenario in which Biden and Bernie, or Bernie and Biden, are one-two in delegates in Milwaukee and the nomination somehow ends up going to … Michael Bloomberg. You can’t do it. They’d have to reach all the way down to the (likely) third-place finisher in the race, a figure with many hundreds of fewer delegates than the top two and who emphatically does not occupy the ideological middle ground between Sanders and Biden that might make him a viable compromise candidate. You can imagine someone like Elizabeth Warren being a compromise choice if she finished third — a very strong third, that is, not far behind the second-place candidate. (Which won’t be happening.) But Bloomberg is a raw expression of plutocracy, a candidate practically designed in a lab to offend Berniebros. They’d never tolerate him as nominee unless he were the plurality delegate leader, even though his billions could obviously buy an unprecedented advertising arsenal against Trump in the general election. If anything, Bloomberg trying to assert himself in Milwaukee might make Bernie fans more willing to acquiesce in Biden’s nomination if Joe ended up with a plurality of delegates.
In lieu of an exit question, read Gabriel Sherman’s report this afternoon about Bloomberg’s advisors having nudged him over the weekend to quit the race after South Carolina and endorse Biden. Bloomy has refused, presumably for the simple reason that he wasn’t going to bail on a $500 million Super Tuesday investment before the polls even opened with him finally on the ballot. But if he’s already under pressure from his own staff to quit, it seems highly likely that he’ll bail this week if his performance today is as underwhelming as everyone expects. Quote from a source close to the campaign: “It’s clearer than ever after the weekend that it’s over and thus he will risk making Ross Perot and Ralph Nader look good if he stays in this.”


hotair--2020-03-03--Tornadoes hit Nashville, death toll rises to 22

Last night around midnight tornadoes swept through four counties in the area of Nashville , Tennessee .
This morning the death toll from the disaster has risen to 22 people but authorities are aware there are still an unknown number of missing people .
A powerful storm early Tuesday spawned tornadoes that ripped through Tennessee , killing at least 22 people and creating a trail of devastation that struck Nashville and stretched across several counties in the central part of the state… Officials warned that the number of confirmed fatalities could rise , as officials were still working to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ devastation and emergency workers continued to search through the rubble of damaged buildings .
Police officers were going house to house in some areas , and road crews were clearing streets and dangerous electrical debris .
“ It ’ s not looking good right now .
We still have several people missing , a lot of loved ones calling in wanting us to locate their family , ” Sheriff Eddie Farris of Putnam County told a local news station , WKRN .
“ We certainly hope that number doesn ’ t go up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ real promising at this point.
” WKRN in Nashville reports on some of the victims : Metro police reported two people died after they were hit by debris along McFerrin Avenue in East Nashville .
Officers said one of the victims , an adult female , was pronounced dead at the scene , while an adult male later died at a local hospital .
Cookeville Mayor Ricky Shelton said 16 people were killed in Putnam County .
Several of the victims were children , Shelton explained .
The Benton County Sheriff reported one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ others injured in the storm .
The sheriff said a 67-year-old man was inside a mobile home , when it was picked up and thrown into a field .
In addition to the lives lost there was also a tremendous amount of property damage .
A little after midnight the Nashville Fire Department said 40 structures had collapsed around the city : But , looking at photos , it appears there are hundreds more homes that were seriously damaged : A massive warehouse , about half of which has collapsed : And this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : One of the hardest hit spots was this Nashville airport .
Four hangars were destroyed and airplanes were smashed together like toys : The electrical infrastructure was seriously impacted .
Nearly 50,000 people are still without power : Lots of power line damage at the street level too : The tornados that struck are said to be EF-3s .
I ’ ll update this post if the situation changes .

Last night around midnight tornadoes swept through four counties in the area of Nashville, Tennessee. This morning the death toll from the disaster has risen to 22 people but authorities are aware there are still an unknown number of missing people.
A powerful storm early Tuesday spawned tornadoes that ripped through Tennessee, killing at least 22 people and creating a trail of devastation that struck Nashville and stretched across several counties in the central part of the state… Officials warned that the number of confirmed fatalities could rise, as officials were still working to get a handle on the reach of the devastation and emergency workers continued to search through the rubble of damaged buildings. Police officers were going house to house in some areas, and road crews were clearing streets and dangerous electrical debris. “It’s not looking good right now. We still have several people missing, a lot of loved ones calling in wanting us to locate their family,” Sheriff Eddie Farris of Putnam County told a local news station, WKRN. “We certainly hope that number doesn’t go up, but it’s not looking real promising at this point.”
WKRN in Nashville reports on some of the victims:
Metro police reported two people died after they were hit by debris along McFerrin Avenue in East Nashville. Officers said one of the victims, an adult female, was pronounced dead at the scene, while an adult male later died at a local hospital. Cookeville Mayor Ricky Shelton said 16 people were killed in Putnam County. Several of the victims were children, Shelton explained. The Benton County Sheriff reported one person was killed and at least two others injured in the storm. The sheriff said a 67-year-old man was inside a mobile home, when it was picked up and thrown into a field.
In addition to the lives lost there was also a tremendous amount of property damage. A little after midnight the Nashville Fire Department said 40 structures had collapsed around the city:
Happening Now: we are responding to reports of approx. 40 structure collapses around Nashville. Please avoid downed powerline and storm debris. — Nashville Fire Dept (@NashvilleFD) March 3, 2020
But, looking at photos, it appears there are hundreds more homes that were seriously damaged:
#BREAKING: @JohnCooper4Nash has signed an executive order declaring a STATE OF EMERGENCY in Nashville & Davidson County. @WKRN pic.twitter.com/rOpPTP71i5 — Josh Breslow (@JoshBreslowWKRN) March 3, 2020
DRONE 2: More aerial video from photojournalist @ArmondoWKRN. This is near Third Ave. and Jefferson Street. #NashvilleTornado https://t.co/n5uMrp8dYX pic.twitter.com/JJsYgpsXxJ — WKRN News 2 (@WKRN) March 3, 2020
A massive warehouse, about half of which has collapsed:
DRONE 2: @ArmondoWKRN shot this drone video of damage at a warehouse on Eastgate Blvd in Wilson County. #nashvilletornado https://t.co/n5uMrp8dYX pic.twitter.com/FWCHAMsnEL — WKRN News 2 (@WKRN) March 3, 2020
And this church which was nearly 200 years old:
Hopewell Baptist Church is one of several destroyer in North Nashville. It’s been here since 1823. Devastating. @WKRN pic.twitter.com/QXtFobSAYd — Elizabeth Lane (@elizabethlanetv) March 3, 2020
One of the hardest hit spots was this Nashville airport. Four hangars were destroyed and airplanes were smashed together like toys:
Before the overnight tornado struck Germantown & East Nashville, it made a direct hit on John Tune Airport in West Nashville. pic.twitter.com/2ELPhsddUs — Metro Nashville PD (@MNPDNashville) March 3, 2020
STORM DAMAGE: Cars piled up, hangars and airplanes destroyed at the John C. Tune airport. Officials estimate the damage to be in the millions. https://t.co/n5uMrp8dYX #NashvilleTornado pic.twitter.com/09DBLIESok — WKRN News 2 (@WKRN) March 3, 2020
My friend found THIS airport terminal sign in her yard after the overnight storms. She lives in Mt. Juliet… more than *10* MILES from @Fly_Nashville !! @WKRN pic.twitter.com/hLUAvBi62a — Josh Breslow (@JoshBreslowWKRN) March 3, 2020
The electrical infrastructure was seriously impacted. Nearly 50,000 people are still without power:
Currently, we have 31 high-voltage electrical transmission structures damaged and 17 lines down in the Middle Tennessee area. Additional crews and equipment are en route, and 3 helicopters are in the air assessing the damage. Check with your local power company for outage info. pic.twitter.com/lrfZMW49ET — Tennessee Valley Authority (@TVAnews) March 3, 2020
Lots of power line damage at the street level too:
The tornados that struck are said to be EF-3s.
Finding incredible images online this morning of last night’s tornado over #Nashville. Thanks to News4 viewer Jenny Pearcy for this amazing photo. pic.twitter.com/YfSOOMyk1b — Melanie Layden (@MelanieLaydenTV) March 3, 2020
https://twitter.com/juskeyyy/status/1234768153529503745
I’ll update this post if the situation changes.