hotair--2020-11-06--2020 polling part 1: It was really, really bad...again

I ’ m going to try something a little different today and present an argument in three parts .
The goal of this first part is really to lay the groundwork for the other two .
All I want to do here is convince you of something that you probably already know .
2020 polling was really , really bad .
And from there we ’ ll move on to examining what that means for the media that relied on these polls and what it meant for the race itself .
There are lots of ways we could do this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it simple and just present a list of examples , starting with one I wrote about Wednesday : The most striking thing about the race is that Susan Collins never led in a single poll prior to winning the election .
Here ’ s the full list from RCP .
I realize it may be a bit hard to read but you don ’ t really need to see all the details , just look at the column of uninterrupted blue numbers on the right , they range from +1 to +12 for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ completed 3 days before the election , showed Gideon at +6 .
There were a lot of polls right up to the Sunday before the election in Florida .
The final average of those polls showed Biden with a +0.9 lead , but if you expand to include polls that closed up to 9 days before the election , you once again see polls mostly favoring Biden .
There are 13 polls favoring Biden compared to 6 favoring Trump ( two of those from the same pollster , Trafalgar ) .
Trump wound @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Only 1 poll in that list came within a point of the final result .
Here again we have an uninterrupted string of polls showing a solid Biden victory ranging in the final week from +1 to +11 .
The final RCP average was Biden +6.7 .
And it ’ s worth nothing that if you look at all the Wisconsin polling you ’ d have to go back all the way to mid-August to find a poll showing Trump leading ( Trafalgar , +1 ) .
Biden did win Wisconsin but just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as +0.7 but the NY Times shows +0.6 with Biden winning by just over 20,000 votes .
Only one poll on that list above ( Trafalgar ) was within a point of the actual outcome .
Moving on to another must win state for President Trump , most of the polling in the final month showed Biden with a slight lead , though a few polls did show a Trump lead .
RCP ’ s final average of polls in the final week was Trump +1 , though it ’ s worth nothing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ average is a Trafalgar poll that had him at +5 .
Take out that one poll and you would basically have a dead heat .
Trump won Ohio by 8.2 points .
No poll , not even Trafalgar , came within 3 points of reality .
Are we having fun yet ?
You remember all the excitement among Democrats about their chances of turning Texas blue this year ?
That didn ’ t happen but as you can see , the polling in October probably gave them some hope it was close .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which is a squeaker .
Notice there ’ s even one poll in there which was Biden +3 .
Trump won Texas by 6.8 points or 654,000 votes .
One poll on that list above ( Rasmussen ) was within a point .
Below are all the polls that were completed in October .
You ’ ll notice immediately there are only 3 polls that show a Trump lead .
All are from the same pollster ( Trafalgar ) .
All of the other polls range from Biden +7 to Biden +12 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poll that had Biden at +2 in the final week .
The RCP average was Biden +4.2 , but again that was much lower that what most pollsters seemed to showing .
If you averaged the entire month it would probably be around +9 for Biden .
Biden won Michigan by 2.7 points ( the NY Times shows 2.6 ) .
The only poll that came within a point of that result in the entire month of August was the Insider Advantage poll .
Everyone else was off by 4-7 points .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race .
Here ’ s all the polling for October .
The final RCP average for the race was Gary Peters over John James +5.4 .
It seemed clear , especially with Trump also trailing by 4-5 all month , that James didn ’ t have much of a shot .
Peters won by 1.7 .
This was a relatively close race .
Some of the polls ( CNN +12 in the final week ) were off by more than 10 points .
Only a single poll in that list ( NY Times/Siena @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are all of the polls for the Iowa Senate race completed in October .
As you can see , many pollsters showed Democrat Theresa Greenfield leading .
by 4-6 points .
The final polls were more favorable for Joni Ernst and RCP ’ s final average was Ernst +1.4 .
Ernst won the election by 6.6 .
Only one poll in October was within a point of the actual result , the one by Insider Advantage .
Polling never showed Mitch McConnell was in any real danger , despite Democrats spending around $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the polling that was done showed a race as close as 5 points .
That poll was completed in August , but as Joe Biden might say ‘ C ’ mon , man.
’ The only October poll shoed McConnell at +9 .
McConnell won by 20.4 .
Only one poll came within 10 points .
There wasn ’ t a lot of polling here so I ’ m going to show you polls going back to September .
There ’ s no average but you can see Quinnipiac had a couple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plenty of stories about this being the race of Lindsey Graham ’ s life .
The final polls from October had Graham up 3 and 6 .
The special election in Georgia between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Kelly Loeffler had more than a dozen candidates and will be headed for a runoff .
Polling showed Warnock winning by double digits .
As you can see , most polls in October showed Warnock winning by 11-19 .
One poll ( Emerson ) showed a tie and one showed Warnock at +4 .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Warnock did win , though again this is going to a runoff because neither candidate his 50 % .
However , the actual gap was +6.6 .
So the average of polls concluding the week before the election was off by more than 9 points .
Special credit to PPP and Monmouth that had Warnock at +19 in their final polls .
Admittedly I ’ m handpicking the worst here .
There are polls that were close to what looks like the final results .
For instance , the RCP average in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now Trump is up 0.4 with thousands of ballots still to be counted .
So some of the polling may turn out to be close .
There were also some polls that underestimated Biden .
For instance , in Minnesota the final RCP average was Biden +4.3 .
The actual result was Biden +7.2 .
Though if you look at all of the polls for October ( not just the final ones ) the average would have been a point higher at 5.2 .
Still , at least some polling did underestimate Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pretty remarkable that a lot of polling in key battleground states , Florida , Ohio , Michigan , Wisconsin ( and Texas which plays big in Democrats ’ fantasy life ) were pretty far off and mostly in the same direction .
Key races that would determine control of the Senate also tended to strongly overestimate Democrats ’ chances .
Needless to say , this isn ’ t the first time we ’ ve seen this happen .
Trump ’ s surprise win in 2016 was also put down to polling that largely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s a hell of a coincidence that polling in places Democrats most hoped to win this time out seemed to tell them what they wanted to hear .
In part 2 of this series we ’ ll talk about the crisis of credibility that creates for the media .
Update : 2020 Polling Part 2 : Incompetence Or Partisanship ?
Pollsters Need To Explain Their Failure…Again

I’m going to try something a little different today and present an argument in three parts. The goal of this first part is really to lay the groundwork for the other two. All I want to do here is convince you of something that you probably already know. 2020 polling was really, really bad. And from there we’ll move on to examining what that means for the media that relied on these polls and what it meant for the race itself.
There are lots of ways we could do this but I’m going to keep it simple and just present a list of examples, starting with one I wrote about Wednesday:
Maine – Senate
The most striking thing about the race is that Susan Collins never led in a single poll prior to winning the election. Here’s the full list from RCP. I realize it may be a bit hard to read but you don’t really need to see all the details, just look at the column of uninterrupted blue numbers on the right, they range from +1 to +12 for the Democrat. The final poll, completed 3 days before the election, showed Gideon at +6.
Susan Collins won the race by 7.5 points.
Florida – President
There were a lot of polls right up to the Sunday before the election in Florida. The final average of those polls showed Biden with a +0.9 lead, but if you expand to include polls that closed up to 9 days before the election, you once again see polls mostly favoring Biden. There are 13 polls favoring Biden compared to 6 favoring Trump (two of those from the same pollster, Trafalgar).
Trump wound up winning Florida by 3.4 points. Only 1 poll in that list came within a point of the final result.
Wisconsin – President
Here again we have an uninterrupted string of polls showing a solid Biden victory ranging in the final week from +1 to +11. The final RCP average was Biden +6.7. And it’s worth nothing that if you look at all the Wisconsin polling you’d have to go back all the way to mid-August to find a poll showing Trump leading (Trafalgar, +1).
Biden did win Wisconsin but just barely. RCP has the final result as +0.7 but the NY Times shows +0.6 with Biden winning by just over 20,000 votes. Only one poll on that list above (Trafalgar) was within a point of the actual outcome.
Ohio – President
Moving on to another must win state for President Trump, most of the polling in the final month showed Biden with a slight lead, though a few polls did show a Trump lead. RCP’s final average of polls in the final week was Trump +1, though it’s worth nothing that the only reason Trump wins the average is a Trafalgar poll that had him at +5. Take out that one poll and you would basically have a dead heat.
Trump won Ohio by 8.2 points. No poll, not even Trafalgar, came within 3 points of reality.
Texas – President
Are we having fun yet? You remember all the excitement among Democrats about their chances of turning Texas blue this year? That didn’t happen but as you can see, the polling in October probably gave them some hope it was close. The final RCP average was Trump +1.3, which is a squeaker. Notice there’s even one poll in there which was Biden +3.
Trump won Texas by 6.8 points or 654,000 votes. One poll on that list above (Rasmussen) was within a point.
Michigan – President
Below are all the polls that were completed in October. You’ll notice immediately there are only 3 polls that show a Trump lead. All are from the same pollster (Trafalgar). All of the other polls range from Biden +7 to Biden +12 with the exception of one Insider Advantage poll that had Biden at +2 in the final week. The RCP average was Biden +4.2, but again that was much lower that what most pollsters seemed to showing. If you averaged the entire month it would probably be around +9 for Biden.
Biden won Michigan by 2.7 points (the NY Times shows 2.6). The only poll that came within a point of that result in the entire month of August was the Insider Advantage poll. Everyone else was off by 4-7 points.
Michigan – Senate
The same was true for the Michigan Senate race. Here’s all the polling for October. The final RCP average for the race was Gary Peters over John James +5.4. It seemed clear, especially with Trump also trailing by 4-5 all month, that James didn’t have much of a shot.
Peters won by 1.7. This was a relatively close race. Some of the polls (CNN +12 in the final week) were off by more than 10 points. Only a single poll in that list (NY Times/Siena) came within a point.
Iowa – Senate
Here are all of the polls for the Iowa Senate race completed in October. As you can see, many pollsters showed Democrat Theresa Greenfield leading. by 4-6 points. The final polls were more favorable for Joni Ernst and RCP’s final average was Ernst +1.4.
Ernst won the election by 6.6. Only one poll in October was within a point of the actual result, the one by Insider Advantage.
Kentucky – Senate
Polling never showed Mitch McConnell was in any real danger, despite Democrats spending around $100 million to unseat him. Nevertheless, the polling that was done showed a race as close as 5 points. That poll was completed in August, but as Joe Biden might say ‘C’mon, man.’ The only October poll shoed McConnell at +9.
McConnell won by 20.4. Only one poll came within 10 points.
South Carolina – Senate
There wasn’t a lot of polling here so I’m going to show you polls going back to September. There’s no average but you can see Quinnipiac had a couple polls showing a tie. There were plenty of stories about this being the race of Lindsey Graham’s life. The final polls from October had Graham up 3 and 6.
Graham won the race by 10.3.
Georgia – Senate (special election)
The special election in Georgia between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Kelly Loeffler had more than a dozen candidates and will be headed for a runoff. Polling showed Warnock winning by double digits. As you can see, most polls in October showed Warnock winning by 11-19. One poll (Emerson) showed a tie and one showed Warnock at +4. But the final RCP average was Warnock +15.7.
Warnock did win, though again this is going to a runoff because neither candidate his 50%. However, the actual gap was +6.6. So the average of polls concluding the week before the election was off by more than 9 points. Special credit to PPP and Monmouth that had Warnock at +19 in their final polls.
Admittedly I’m handpicking the worst here. There are polls that were close to what looks like the final results. For instance, the RCP average in North Carolina was Trump +0.2. Right now Trump is up 0.4 with thousands of ballots still to be counted. So some of the polling may turn out to be close.
There were also some polls that underestimated Biden. For instance, in Minnesota the final RCP average was Biden +4.3. The actual result was Biden +7.2. Though if you look at all of the polls for October (not just the final ones) the average would have been a point higher at 5.2. Still, at least some polling did underestimate Biden by a bit.
But it remains pretty remarkable that a lot of polling in key battleground states, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin (and Texas which plays big in Democrats’ fantasy life) were pretty far off and mostly in the same direction. Key races that would determine control of the Senate also tended to strongly overestimate Democrats’ chances.
Needless to say, this isn’t the first time we’ve seen this happen. Trump’s surprise win in 2016 was also put down to polling that largely and consistently underestimated his chances.
It’s a hell of a coincidence that polling in places Democrats most hoped to win this time out seemed to tell them what they wanted to hear. In part 2 of this series we’ll talk about the crisis of credibility that creates for the media.
Update: 2020 Polling Part 2: Incompetence Or Partisanship? Pollsters Need To Explain Their Failure…Again


hotair--2020-11-06--Does McConnell have one last play before the Georgia runoffs to secure the Senate majority?

Well , you had to know we ’ d eventually get around to a regular feature — Manchin Watch !
There has always been plenty of speculation that Joe Manchin would eventually cross the aisle to align with the Republicans , although Manchin has consistently maintained that he ’ s proud to be a Democrat .
He managed to win re-election in 2018 despite the state ’ s governor , Jim Justice , very ostentatiously switching to the GOP in 2017 .
However , Manchin only barely held off Patrick Morrisey ( no relation ) , 49.6/46.3 in that race @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voted to remove Donald Trump from office in his impeachment trial , so flipping with Trump in office was never going to be in the cards .
Now that voters have apparently denied Trump a second term , however , perhaps all bets are off .
And for the next two months , Manchin will never be in a better position to cut a deal with Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans for a chair in the next session of Congress .
Consider these harbingers of doom for Manchin : • He will have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a presidential cycle that will have heavy Republican turnout in West Virginia .
He only beat Morrisey by three points ( and only with a plurality ) in a Democratic wave election in 2018 .
• Shelly Moore Capito just won her Senate re-election contest 70/27 in West Virginia … and she won every single county .
Handily .
• Republicans won all three WV House seats .
And the closest race of the three took place in WV-02 , which Alex Mooney won with 63.1 % of the vote .
Also consider @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the Democrats ’ agenda , including energy-production foes demanding a Green New Deal from an incoming Joe Biden administration .
House Democrats are already revolting over progressive control of the party ’ s agenda , and those complaints are coming from states considerably less red than West Virginia .
Nancy Pelosi is already proclaiming the election a “ mandate ” for the progressive agenda .
How long will Manchin survive as a Democrat in West Virginia under the circumstances ?
Eventually , Manchin will either have to retire or change parties to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t want to retire , this is the best opportunity he will have to get something significant for the switch .
Until Georgia holds its runoff election , McConnell is looking at the potential for a Kamala Harris-run Senate while he sits at 50 seats for the next two years .
Flipping Manchin would cement Republican control of the Senate now , rather than hoping for at least one out of two runoff wins on January 5 .
What can McConnell offer as an inducement ?
Manchin is ranking member of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , perhaps the most important panel to West Virginia .
Lisa Murkoswki chairs that panel and she might not be happy to step aside , as Alaskans have a lot of interest in that as well , thanks to federal control over most of their state .
Perhaps Murkowski would step aside , but Pat Roberts ’ retirement leaves the Agriculture chair open , which might interest Manchin .
Or McConnell could move Jerry Moran to Ag and have Manchin take over Veterans ’ Affairs .
Lamar Alexander ’ s retirement also leaves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Pensions committee chair open , which is stacked with progressives on the minority side .
The point is that McConnell has room to deal for Manchin , and both have a significant interest in getting him on the GOP side at some point .
Manchin won ’ t have this kind of leverage once David Perdue wins his runoff election , and especially if Kelly Loeffler also wins hers and gets McConnell to 52 .
If he ever cuts a deal , Manchin won ’ t find a better opportunity than in @ @ @ @ @

Well, you had to know we’d eventually get around to a regular feature — Manchin Watch! There has always been plenty of speculation that Joe Manchin would eventually cross the aisle to align with the Republicans, although Manchin has consistently maintained that he’s proud to be a Democrat. He managed to win re-election in 2018 despite the state’s governor, Jim Justice, very ostentatiously switching to the GOP in 2017. However, Manchin only barely held off Patrick Morrisey (no relation), 49.6/46.3 in that race.
Just ten months ago, Manchin voted to remove Donald Trump from office in his impeachment trial, so flipping with Trump in office was never going to be in the cards. Now that voters have apparently denied Trump a second term, however, perhaps all bets are off. And for the next two months, Manchin will never be in a better position to cut a deal with Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans for a chair in the next session of Congress.
Consider these harbingers of doom for Manchin:
He will have to run for re-election in 2024 — a presidential cycle that will have heavy Republican turnout in West Virginia. He only beat Morrisey by three points (and only with a plurality) in a Democratic wave election in 2018.
Shelly Moore Capito just won her Senate re-election contest 70/27 in West Virginia … and she won every single county. Handily.
Republicans won all three WV House seats. And the closest race of the three took place in WV-02, which Alex Mooney won with 63.1% of the vote.
Also consider the fact that the progressives have taken over the Democrats’ agenda, including energy-production foes demanding a Green New Deal from an incoming Joe Biden administration. House Democrats are already revolting over progressive control of the party’s agenda, and those complaints are coming from states considerably less red than West Virginia. Nancy Pelosi is already proclaiming the election a “mandate” for the progressive agenda. How long will Manchin survive as a Democrat in West Virginia under the circumstances?
Eventually, Manchin will either have to retire or change parties to survive in his state. If he doesn’t want to retire, this is the best opportunity he will have to get something significant for the switch. Until Georgia holds its runoff election, McConnell is looking at the potential for a Kamala Harris-run Senate while he sits at 50 seats for the next two years. Flipping Manchin would cement Republican control of the Senate now, rather than hoping for at least one out of two runoff wins on January 5.
What can McConnell offer as an inducement? Manchin is ranking member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, perhaps the most important panel to West Virginia. Lisa Murkoswki chairs that panel and she might not be happy to step aside, as Alaskans have a lot of interest in that as well, thanks to federal control over most of their state. Perhaps Murkowski would step aside, but Pat Roberts’ retirement leaves the Agriculture chair open, which might interest Manchin. Or McConnell could move Jerry Moran to Ag and have Manchin take over Veterans’ Affairs. Lamar Alexander’s retirement also leaves the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions committee chair open, which is stacked with progressives on the minority side.
The point is that McConnell has room to deal for Manchin, and both have a significant interest in getting him on the GOP side at some point. Manchin won’t have this kind of leverage once David Perdue wins his runoff election, and especially if Kelly Loeffler also wins hers and gets McConnell to 52. If he ever cuts a deal, Manchin won’t find a better opportunity than in the next eight weeks.


hotair--2020-11-06--Fox News's early projection for Biden in Arizona looks like it might hold up

I think Fox will end up being more lucky than good if Arizona holds on for Biden , as nearly every other election analyst this year seems to think their Tuesday night call was premature .
But it ’ ll be hugely gratifying for them to have stuck by their projection under tremendous pressure from the White House and their own viewers to retract it and then have it be borne out by the results .
The latest batch of votes counted by Maricopa County was reported within the past hour .
For quirky reasons , mail ballots in Arizona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they are in states like Pennsylvania .
That ’ s why so many data nerds have thought Trump still has a fighting chance to win there , no matter what Fox ’ s decision desk might think .
To catch up to Biden , though , Trump would need to win the remaining ballots at a clip of 59 percent or so .
Not easy — but doable .
The newest votes suggest he ’ s not going to get there : In a sense , it doesn ’ t matter .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is academic .
But given Trump ’ s intent on challenging Biden ’ s claim to the presidency , the more states that go blue , the harder the challenge is : Nevada also got a batch of newly counted votes this morning , this time from heavily Democratic Clark County .
We ’ ll probably have a call in NV soon : Because Fox has already called Arizona for Biden , they have him sitting at 264 .
Other networks haven ’ t made that call and therefore have him at 253 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ call on Nevada , they should logically also project that Biden is the next president .
Team Trump is reportedly very worried about that given Fox ’ s influence over right-wing opinion : The state of play : Aides told Axios they ’ re dreading the prospect of Fox calling Pennsylvania for Joe Biden , which could make the conservative network the first to give Biden 270 electoral votes .
A Trump campaign official said the internal view was that it ’ s essential to keep the race “ optically ” alive , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it , it would severely harm their efforts to support President Trump ’ s ( false ) claims that he ’ d already won .
The incandescent anger at Fox within Trumpworld is hard to overstate : Trump ’ s advisers remain furious at Fox ’ s decision desk for its early call of Arizona for Biden , which was seconded by AP .
Trump advisers have been unsuccessfully lobbying their contacts at the network to retract the call .
Given the electoral college margin Biden is looking at , obsessing over Fox @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scapegoating at this point .
If the election were 259-259 with everything down to Pennsylvania , it ’ d make more sense for Team Trump to panic about Fox making a call of PA or AZ .
As it is , they ’ ve come up short in too many states to care about “ optics ” now .
Fox is in a real jam going forward , though .
It may be silly to scapegoat them for Trump ’ s defeat , or at least for “ disloyalty ” at a critical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and yet politics is suffused with it : CNN reported earlier that Fox sent a memo to staffers urging them not to refer to Biden as the “ president-elect ” *even after* they project that he ’ ll win more than 270 electoral votes .
Ostensibly that would be designed to give Trump a little room for legal challenges — i.e.
, Biden has 270 for now but there might yet be some amazing court case that undoes the results in Pennsylvania , Georgia , Arizona , maybe Michigan and Wisconsin too .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) In reality , I think refusing to designate him as “ president-elect ” would simply be a form of petty spite designed to signal to angry viewers that they ’ re still on the team .
Calling him “ President-elect Biden ” would be too … triggering , for lack of a better term .
But since CNN ’ s report , people on air at Fox have apparently begun referring to Biden as “ president-elect , ” at least when discussing a hypothetical future .
So maybe FNC has thought better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ d be bad for the country to encourage viewers not to think of Biden as legitimately elected or because someone on Team Joe warned them that they could forget about access to the new administration if they didn ’ t change their tune .
As for Trump , the Times says that chatter has begun among Republicans about how to gently bring the president around to the reality that he lost .
He ’ ll never acknowledge it himself ; he ’ s incapable psychologically .
The trick is figuring out how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the White House as an institution acknowledge it so that the country , and especially the Republican base , can begin to move on .
Republicans have begun having discussions about how to broach the topic with Mr. Trump of focusing on life after the presidency , and what leaving quietly could mean for his family , his business and his own ability to remain in politics .
Some have suggested that sounding notes of encouragement about a 2024 campaign could be effective .
Others believe that he will concede if it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he will most likely never publicly accept the result .
In the meantime , Mr. Trump ’ s advisers were divided on what he should be doing until the final vote counts are announced .
There were some discussions about his holding a rally as soon as this weekend , one person briefed on the talks said .
Note the bit about “ his own ability to remain in politics.
” If Trump goes scorched-earth during the lame-duck session , it ’ ll make otherwise persuadable voters that much more reluctant to give @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2024 .
The core argument against him among anti-Trumpers in this election was that he ’ s too reckless and authoritarian to be trusted with a new term when he ’ ll no longer be accountable to voters for what he says and does .
That argument will abide in 2024 .
What he does as a lame duck , at a moment when he ’ s also ( briefly ) no longer accountable , will either strengthen it or weaken it for swing voters .
Exit question : Was there a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s apparent defeat in Arizona ?
Observers last night pointed out that John Lewis ’ s home district appears to have been the one that finally gave Biden the lead in Georgia whereas McCain ’ s home state is about to turn blue for the first time in ages .
Both states are going right down to the wire .
It wouldn ’ t have taken many voters in either jurisdiction to have held a grudge against Trump for trash-talking a politician they admired and to have voted against him because of it @ @ @ @ @ @ @

I think Fox will end up being more lucky than good if Arizona holds on for Biden, as nearly every other election analyst this year seems to think their Tuesday night call was premature. But it’ll be hugely gratifying for them to have stuck by their projection under tremendous pressure from the White House and their own viewers to retract it and then have it be borne out by the results.
The latest batch of votes counted by Maricopa County was reported within the past hour. For quirky reasons, mail ballots in Arizona aren’t as solidly blue as they are in states like Pennsylvania. That’s why so many data nerds have thought Trump still has a fighting chance to win there, no matter what Fox’s decision desk might think. To catch up to Biden, though, Trump would need to win the remaining ballots at a clip of 59 percent or so. Not easy — but doable.
The newest votes suggest he’s not going to get there:
Breaking: 61k new Maricopa Co. ballots added… Trump 31,768 (53%)
Biden 28,285 (46%) Huge deal: that's not a good enough pace for Trump. — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 6, 2020
Those Maricopa ballots have probably closed down Trump's path in Arizona. He needed to do much better. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2020
Trump wins the new Maricopa, AZ ballots by just 5 points. Don't know if it'll allow a call, but that won't cut it for the president. — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 6, 2020
In a sense, it doesn’t matter. If Pennsylvania has flipped, every other state is academic. But given Trump’s intent on challenging Biden’s claim to the presidency, the more states that go blue, the harder the challenge is:
If Biden's leads hold in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania – and now there's little reason to to think they wouldn't – the president would need to somehow overturn the result in at least three states to win reelection. — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 6, 2020
Nevada also got a batch of newly counted votes this morning, this time from heavily Democratic Clark County. We’ll probably have a call in NV soon:
NEWS: Clark ballots are in, Biden doubles lead to 22K in Nevada. It is over. — Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 6, 2020
Because Fox has already called Arizona for Biden, they have him sitting at 264. Other networks haven’t made that call and therefore have him at 253. If Fox has to make a call on Nevada, they should logically also project that Biden is the next president. Team Trump is reportedly very worried about that given Fox’s influence over right-wing opinion:
The state of play: Aides told Axios they’re dreading the prospect of Fox calling Pennsylvania for Joe Biden, which could make the conservative network the first to give Biden 270 electoral votes. A Trump campaign official said the internal view was that it’s essential to keep the race “optically” alive, and that if Fox were to call it, it would severely harm their efforts to support President Trump’s (false) claims that he’d already won. The incandescent anger at Fox within Trumpworld is hard to overstate: Trump’s advisers remain furious at Fox’s decision desk for its early call of Arizona for Biden, which was seconded by AP. Trump advisers have been unsuccessfully lobbying their contacts at the network to retract the call.
Given the electoral college margin Biden is looking at, obsessing over Fox’s premature Arizona call is just scapegoating at this point. If the election were 259-259 with everything down to Pennsylvania, it’d make more sense for Team Trump to panic about Fox making a call of PA or AZ. As it is, they’ve come up short in too many states to care about “optics” now.
Fox is in a real jam going forward, though. It may be silly to scapegoat them for Trump’s defeat, or at least for “disloyalty” at a critical moment, but scapegoating is inherently silly and yet politics is suffused with it:
I reported a while ago that Fox's internal research shows a substantial portion of its viewers think it's too liberal. There's obviously space to the right, and one Fox person told me that the AZ call and skeptical coverage of Trump have been a "disaster" w viewers. https://t.co/ArakpYSi5V — Ben Smith (@benyt) November 6, 2020
On life after, anger at Fox / Murdoch family cannot be understated. Should he lose, Trump wants to destroy Fox – aides believe they can steal hosts Hannity & Carlson. Sources believe Trump will never admit he lost should we get there – instead stick with “rigged” “fraud” “stolen” https://t.co/15PzANMS9c — John Santucci (@Santucci) November 6, 2020
CNN reported earlier that Fox sent a memo to staffers urging them not to refer to Biden as the “president-elect” *even after* they project that he’ll win more than 270 electoral votes. Ostensibly that would be designed to give Trump a little room for legal challenges — i.e., Biden has 270 for now but there might yet be some amazing court case that undoes the results in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, maybe Michigan and Wisconsin too. (There won’t be.) In reality, I think refusing to designate him as “president-elect” would simply be a form of petty spite designed to signal to angry viewers that they’re still on the team. Calling him “President-elect Biden” would be too … triggering, for lack of a better term.
But since CNN’s report, people on air at Fox have apparently begun referring to Biden as “president-elect,” at least when discussing a hypothetical future. So maybe FNC has thought better of the idea, whether because it’d be bad for the country to encourage viewers not to think of Biden as legitimately elected or because someone on Team Joe warned them that they could forget about access to the new administration if they didn’t change their tune.
As for Trump, the Times says that chatter has begun among Republicans about how to gently bring the president around to the reality that he lost. He’ll never acknowledge it himself; he’s incapable psychologically. The trick is figuring out how to make him be okay with letting the White House as an institution acknowledge it so that the country, and especially the Republican base, can begin to move on.
Republicans have begun having discussions about how to broach the topic with Mr. Trump of focusing on life after the presidency, and what leaving quietly could mean for his family, his business and his own ability to remain in politics. Some have suggested that sounding notes of encouragement about a 2024 campaign could be effective. Others believe that he will concede if it is clear he has lost, but that he will most likely never publicly accept the result. In the meantime, Mr. Trump’s advisers were divided on what he should be doing until the final vote counts are announced. There were some discussions about his holding a rally as soon as this weekend, one person briefed on the talks said.
Note the bit about “his own ability to remain in politics.” If Trump goes scorched-earth during the lame-duck session, it’ll make otherwise persuadable voters that much more reluctant to give him a second look if he runs in 2024. The core argument against him among anti-Trumpers in this election was that he’s too reckless and authoritarian to be trusted with a new term when he’ll no longer be accountable to voters for what he says and does. That argument will abide in 2024. What he does as a lame duck, at a moment when he’s also (briefly) no longer accountable, will either strengthen it or weaken it for swing voters.
Exit question: Was there a “McCain factor” to Trump’s apparent defeat in Arizona? Observers last night pointed out that John Lewis’s home district appears to have been the one that finally gave Biden the lead in Georgia whereas McCain’s home state is about to turn blue for the first time in ages. Both states are going right down to the wire. It wouldn’t have taken many voters in either jurisdiction to have held a grudge against Trump for trash-talking a politician they admired and to have voted against him because of it, tilting their state to Biden.


hotair--2020-11-06--Pat Toomey and Chris Christie: If Trump doesn't have hard evidence of fraud he should knock it off

Quick : What do these two guys have in common ?
Yeah , yeah , they ’ re both Republicans from the northeast .
I mean more substantively .
The answer is that neither one has nearly as much to lose by crossing Trump on his “ voter fraud ” storyline as most other GOPers do .
Toomey is retiring from the Senate after this term .
Christie has no future in New Jersey politics and just survived a near-death experience from COVID that he appears to have contracted from being around Trump .
He ’ s mainly a television @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to show a little more civic virtue in knocking down the president ’ s attempt to delegitimize the election than the average Republican because there just isn ’ t much Trump can do anymore to punish either of them .
Watch , then read on .
There are three types of Republican responses to the “ I was cheated ” narrative .
One is the Christie/Toomey nothing-to-lose response : Put up or shut up .
Stop burning down the country like a five-year-old with a behavioral disorder because someone took your blankey away @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans who still have something to lose by crossing Trump but don ’ t depend on his good graces as much as MAGA politicians do .
Think Mitch McConnell .
These people *want* to show their civic virtue by saying the election was fair but they need to phrase that point … carefully .
That ’ s a common refrain among this group : Count all legal ballots but also be sure not to count illegal ones — as if that needed to be said .
They ’ re leaving a little wiggle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ batch of ballots somewhere was illegal and therefore should be tossed out , but they ’ re also counterprogramming Trump ’ s initial “ stop the count !
” message .
Although we ’ re past that message now , aren ’ t we ?
He ’ s behind in Georgia , Arizona , Pennsylvania , and Nevada .
He needs the count to go on .
I think he finally figured that out at some point yesterday .
The third response is pure “ burn down the country on the pretense that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We see this mainly from Republican pols who are either running for president in 2024 or are heavily MAGA-centric , and of course from much of the MAGA media extended universe .
I gave some especially fragrant examples in last night ’ s post but there are more .
Ron DeSantis and Lindsey Graham have each entertained the idea of state legislatures ignoring the results of the vote in their states and awarding their electors to Trump if irregularities of some sort can be proved .
Sean Hannity proposed simply holding a do-over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bill Barr to arrest poll workers or something .
Etc etc etc .
Nothing ’ s going to shift the third group , which depends on the myth of Trump ’ s invincibility as an organizing principle , but group two will start to tiptoe towards group one as the states finish counting their votes and it ’ s clear that Trump doesn ’ t have anything solid to suggest massive fraud occurred .
The strongest argument he might potentially have is that ballots that arrived after Election Day were the difference between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s not what happened in Pennsylvania , where Biden will end up winning fairly comfortably : Failing that , Trump will have to show massive fraud .
Instead — and this is genuinely surprising — his attempts to prove serious irregularities thus far have been feeble .
He ’ s been working on this “ just pretend I ’ ve won ” strategy for months ; one would think he ’ d have had something more effective planned to press the case .
I thought there ’ d at least be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that he could point to and blow out of all proportion to suggest that an election-changing bit of deception had occurred .
E.g.
, some poll worker in Philadelphia is caught on cell-phone video throwing a bunch of random papers in a trash can at a polling place and the video gets 30 million views on Facebook under the heading “ OMG THEY ’ RE THROWING OUT BALLOTS.
” ( Throwing out ballots in deep blue Philly would hurt Biden , of course . )
As it is , MAGA world is clinging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Arizona that supposedly led to ballots being thrown out — but actually didn ’ t : There ’ s also a rumor circulating , amplified by the likes of Ted Cruz , that Republicans in Philadelphia are now being barred from vote-counting centers .
Not true either : Most of Team Trump ’ s claims are being easily swatted away in court .
The closest thing they have to a win is a ruling yesterday that allows ballot-watchers to stand within six feet of vote-counters in Philly instead of 20 feet .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ night , if Democrats were capable of rigging the count in Pennsylvania , especially in Philadelphia , why on earth would they have allowed Trump to win the state in 2016 ?
And Wisconsin and Michigan too , handing him the presidency ?
He barely won in all three .
It would have taken a comparatively small number of fake votes to flip the entire election for Hillary .
And what are we to make of the fact that Biden is on the cusp of winning Georgia , a state that hasn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , despite the fact that a Republican governor and Republican secretary of state are presiding over that election ?
As Ed noted earlier , if Biden wins Georgia and hangs on in Nevada — the latter of which is all but assured now — he doesn ’ t even need Pennsylvania to get to 270 .
For all the heavy-breathing about how close this election was , Sleepy Joe may well win with the same number of electoral votes Trump got , with much more of the popular vote than Trump received , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pennsylvania than Trump had four years ago .
I wouldn ’ t call 306 electoral votes a “ landslide , ” personally , assuming Biden gets there .
But some would disagree : I don ’ t think the point of Trump ’ s flurry of lawsuits is truly aimed at winning the election .
He ’ s too far in the hole in terms of electoral votes to do that , even if he could somehow flip the outcome in a single state .
I think it ’ s just the usual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the minds of people to get them to doubt a reality that ’ s unpleasant for him .
The more suits he files , however frivolous , the more he can say , “ Look how many irregularities we found !
And the crooked judges didn ’ t care about any of them !
” Every last bit of this is about him saving face so that he never has to admit he lost .
It ’ s not about actually holding on to the White House .
I ’ ll leave you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which the Daily Beast appears to have corroborated .
Ed and I are both skeptical of it but it ’ s worth reading .
Maybe there *is* some attempted voter fraud going on here .
But in this case , it wouldn ’ t be from Team Joe .

Quick: What do these two guys have in common? Yeah, yeah, they’re both Republicans from the northeast. I mean more substantively.
The answer is that neither one has nearly as much to lose by crossing Trump on his “voter fraud” storyline as most other GOPers do. Toomey is retiring from the Senate after this term. Christie has no future in New Jersey politics and just survived a near-death experience from COVID that he appears to have contracted from being around Trump. He’s mainly a television commentator these days.
Each man gets to show a little more civic virtue in knocking down the president’s attempt to delegitimize the election than the average Republican because there just isn’t much Trump can do anymore to punish either of them. Watch, then read on.
"The president's speech last night was very disturbing to me because he made very very serious allegations without any evidence to support it." — Pennsylvania's @SenToomey pic.twitter.com/4WwbR8h1MS — CBS This Morning (@CBSThisMorning) November 6, 2020
Chris Christie says it’s Trump’s “right to pursue legal action, but show us the evidence. We heard nothing today about any evidence.” “This kind of thing, all it does is inflame without informing, and we cannot permit inflammation without information.” https://t.co/GwwRl4EUb3 pic.twitter.com/d8EZc9rDIy — ABC News (@ABC) November 6, 2020
There are three types of Republican responses to the “I was cheated” narrative. One is the Christie/Toomey nothing-to-lose response: Put up or shut up. Stop burning down the country like a five-year-old with a behavioral disorder because someone took your blankey away.
The second response comes from establishment Republicans who still have something to lose by crossing Trump but don’t depend on his good graces as much as MAGA politicians do. Think Mitch McConnell. These people *want* to show their civic virtue by saying the election was fair but they need to phrase that point … carefully.
Here’s how this must work in our great country: Every legal vote should be counted. Any illegally-submitted ballots must not. All sides must get to observe the process. And the courts are here to apply the laws & resolve disputes. That's how Americans' votes decide the result. — Leader McConnell (@LeaderMcConnell) November 6, 2020
That’s a common refrain among this group: Count all legal ballots but also be sure not to count illegal ones — as if that needed to be said. They’re leaving a little wiggle room for Trump to claim that some batch of ballots somewhere was illegal and therefore should be tossed out, but they’re also counterprogramming Trump’s initial “stop the count!” message.
Although we’re past that message now, aren’t we? He’s behind in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. He needs the count to go on. I think he finally figured that out at some point yesterday.
The third response is pure “burn down the country on the pretense that the election was stolen” cultism. We see this mainly from Republican pols who are either running for president in 2024 or are heavily MAGA-centric, and of course from much of the MAGA media extended universe. I gave some especially fragrant examples in last night’s post but there are more. Ron DeSantis and Lindsey Graham have each entertained the idea of state legislatures ignoring the results of the vote in their states and awarding their electors to Trump if irregularities of some sort can be proved. Sean Hannity proposed simply holding a do-over election in Pennsylvania. Newt Gingrich wants Bill Barr to arrest poll workers or something. Etc etc etc.
Nothing’s going to shift the third group, which depends on the myth of Trump’s invincibility as an organizing principle, but group two will start to tiptoe towards group one as the states finish counting their votes and it’s clear that Trump doesn’t have anything solid to suggest massive fraud occurred. The strongest argument he might potentially have is that ballots that arrived after Election Day were the difference between victory and defeat for Biden. But that’s not what happened in Pennsylvania, where Biden will end up winning fairly comfortably:
Important from @NYTnickc — the limits of any Trump bid to get a different result out of PA through the Supreme Court pic.twitter.com/FAwKfqXHWS — jimrutenberg (@jimrutenberg) November 6, 2020
Failing that, Trump will have to show massive fraud. Instead — and this is genuinely surprising — his attempts to prove serious irregularities thus far have been feeble. He’s been working on this “just pretend I’ve won” strategy for months; one would think he’d have had something more effective planned to press the case. I thought there’d at least be some minor irregularity on Election Day somewhere that he could point to and blow out of all proportion to suggest that an election-changing bit of deception had occurred. E.g., some poll worker in Philadelphia is caught on cell-phone video throwing a bunch of random papers in a trash can at a polling place and the video gets 30 million views on Facebook under the heading “OMG THEY’RE THROWING OUT BALLOTS.” (Throwing out ballots in deep blue Philly would hurt Biden, of course.) As it is, MAGA world is clinging to claims like the great Sharpie conspiracy in Arizona that supposedly led to ballots being thrown out — but actually didn’t:
Based on correspondence and conversations with Maricopa County officials, we are now confident that the use of Sharpie markers did not result in disenfranchisement for Arizona voters. We appreciate the county’s prompt insight and assurances to address public concerns. pic.twitter.com/NdYLsEAvwd — Mark Brnovich (@GeneralBrnovich) November 6, 2020
There’s also a rumor circulating, amplified by the likes of Ted Cruz, that Republicans in Philadelphia are now being barred from vote-counting centers. Not true either:
The dishonesty here is breathtaking. Cruz claims repeatedly that poll watchers have been denied access in Philly. OK. What's his source? People on the scene there say poll watchers have had access all along. Here's a statement from Philly's bipartisan commission on elections: https://t.co/l07YUeUGV1 pic.twitter.com/N6QdaGqFen — Tim Alberta (@TimAlberta) November 6, 2020
Most of Team Trump’s claims are being easily swatted away in court. The closest thing they have to a win is a ruling yesterday that allows ballot-watchers to stand within six feet of vote-counters in Philly instead of 20 feet. To repeat a point I made last night, if Democrats were capable of rigging the count in Pennsylvania, especially in Philadelphia, why on earth would they have allowed Trump to win the state in 2016? And Wisconsin and Michigan too, handing him the presidency? He barely won in all three. It would have taken a comparatively small number of fake votes to flip the entire election for Hillary.
And what are we to make of the fact that Biden is on the cusp of winning Georgia, a state that hasn’t gone blue in nearly 30 years, despite the fact that a Republican governor and Republican secretary of state are presiding over that election? As Ed noted earlier, if Biden wins Georgia and hangs on in Nevada — the latter of which is all but assured now — he doesn’t even need Pennsylvania to get to 270. For all the heavy-breathing about how close this election was, Sleepy Joe may well win with the same number of electoral votes Trump got, with much more of the popular vote than Trump received, and with wider margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania than Trump had four years ago.
I wouldn’t call 306 electoral votes a “landslide,” personally, assuming Biden gets there. But some would disagree:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/928325667556548608
I don’t think the point of Trump’s flurry of lawsuits is truly aimed at winning the election. He’s too far in the hole in terms of electoral votes to do that, even if he could somehow flip the outcome in a single state. I think it’s just the usual gaslighting tactic of creating enough uncertainty in the minds of people to get them to doubt a reality that’s unpleasant for him. The more suits he files, however frivolous, the more he can say, “Look how many irregularities we found! And the crooked judges didn’t care about any of them!” Every last bit of this is about him saving face so that he never has to admit he lost. It’s not about actually holding on to the White House.
I’ll leave you with this interesting story out of Pennsylvania, which the Daily Beast appears to have corroborated. Ed and I are both skeptical of it but it’s worth reading. Maybe there *is* some attempted voter fraud going on here. But in this case, it wouldn’t be from Team Joe.


hotair--2020-11-06--Secret Service support ramps up today for Biden, anticipating the candidate to declare victory today

Joe Biden may declare victory today .
In anticipation of that move , the U.S. Secret Service is ramping up the presidential candidate ’ s protection .
They are sending extra agents today to beef up his security detail just in case Biden delivers a speech declaring victory .
President Trump ’ s lead in Georgia vanished overnight .
As I write this on Friday morning , his lead has disappeared in Pennsylvania , too .
Both states are now in Biden ’ s column .
It is possible that a victory speech scenario can happen today .
Biden plans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and that is where reinforcements are being dispatched .
The Biden campaign is headquartered at a riverfront convention center in Wilmington .
Biden is expected to deliver his victory speech from there .
Biden receives extra Secret Service protection as a presidential candidate so the next move is to increase his protection to the level a president-elect receives .
This doesn ’ t mean that the agency expects President Trump to concede if Biden delivers a speech .
In all likelihood , Trump will not concede because the Trump campaign has lawsuits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign ’ s motto is Count every legal vote , as it should be .
No one expects the president to concede any time soon .
He continues to say he wants the Supreme Court to rule on the election results .
Last night Trump tweeted that he would “ easily win ” if all legal votes were counted .
Twitter flagged the tweet as one that contains misleading information .
So , as the drama continues over counting ballots , the Secret Service is adding protection to Biden ’ s protective bubble @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heads-up that they will stay at the convention center and could make a major speech from there today .
The Secret Service summoned a squad of agents to add to the protective bubble around Biden after his campaign told the agency that the Democratic nominee would continue utilizing a Wilmington convention center at least another day and could make a major speech as early as Friday , according to the people , who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the security protocols .
The additional security for Biden that is expected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him a full protective detail that accompanies a president-elect , but it moves closer in that direction .
It remains unclear when the Secret Service would provide that level of security for Biden should he win .
The agency typically ramps up protection for a president-elect immediately after that person has been declared the winner by assigning a new raft of agents to the incoming president .
Historically , that increase in protection has happened late into election night after one candidate has conceded and the other has given a victory speech .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ already anyway .
Though Biden said he wouldn ’ t get out ahead of the vote count and declare himself the winner prematurely , as he expected Trump to do , he has been delivering daily statements to the press .
He speaks about being certain that he has won various states still counting ballots .
He ’ s a career politician and he finesses his words to declare victory without specifically declaring victory .
If Trump doesn ’ t concede if Biden is declared the winner , the protocol for Secret Service @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the electoral college to meet in mid-December to certify vote results before treating Biden as the president-elect .
It is more likely , though , that they will continue to ramp up protection to that level before the electoral college meets .
We ’ ve been here before .
In 2000 , the election results were in limbo for 36 days .
The agency has only faced such a decision once before : in the contested 2000 presidential race between Republican George W. Bush and Democratic then-Vice President Al Gore .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president-elect as the two sides were locked in a recount over votes in Florida and then a legal fight that went to the Supreme Court .
During that time , the Secret Service maintained the status quo , keeping the vice-presidential protective detail with Gore and continuing to protect Bush as a major candidate .
It ’ s been a bitter campaign and we likely will get more of the same as this all wraps up .

Joe Biden may declare victory today. In anticipation of that move, the U.S. Secret Service is ramping up the presidential candidate’s protection. They are sending extra agents today to beef up his security detail just in case Biden delivers a speech declaring victory.
President Trump’s lead in Georgia vanished overnight. As I write this on Friday morning, his lead has disappeared in Pennsylvania, too. Both states are now in Biden’s column. It is possible that a victory speech scenario can happen today. Biden plans to remain in Wilmington, Delaware Friday, and that is where reinforcements are being dispatched. The Biden campaign is headquartered at a riverfront convention center in Wilmington. Biden is expected to deliver his victory speech from there.
Biden receives extra Secret Service protection as a presidential candidate so the next move is to increase his protection to the level a president-elect receives. This doesn’t mean that the agency expects President Trump to concede if Biden delivers a speech. In all likelihood, Trump will not concede because the Trump campaign has lawsuits filed in several states. The Trump campaign’s motto is Count every legal vote, as it should be. No one expects the president to concede any time soon. He continues to say he wants the Supreme Court to rule on the election results.
Last night Trump tweeted that he would “easily win” if all legal votes were counted. Twitter flagged the tweet as one that contains misleading information.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324613181466173440
So, as the drama continues over counting ballots, the Secret Service is adding protection to Biden’s protective bubble. His campaign gave the agency a heads-up that they will stay at the convention center and could make a major speech from there today.
The Secret Service summoned a squad of agents to add to the protective bubble around Biden after his campaign told the agency that the Democratic nominee would continue utilizing a Wilmington convention center at least another day and could make a major speech as early as Friday, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the security protocols. The additional security for Biden that is expected to begin Friday doesn’t give him a full protective detail that accompanies a president-elect, but it moves closer in that direction. It remains unclear when the Secret Service would provide that level of security for Biden should he win. The agency typically ramps up protection for a president-elect immediately after that person has been declared the winner by assigning a new raft of agents to the incoming president. Historically, that increase in protection has happened late into election night after one candidate has conceded and the other has given a victory speech.
Team Biden has all but declared victory already anyway. Though Biden said he wouldn’t get out ahead of the vote count and declare himself the winner prematurely, as he expected Trump to do, he has been delivering daily statements to the press. He speaks about being certain that he has won various states still counting ballots. He’s a career politician and he finesses his words to declare victory without specifically declaring victory.
If Trump doesn’t concede if Biden is declared the winner, the protocol for Secret Service protection is that the agency can wait for the electoral college to meet in mid-December to certify vote results before treating Biden as the president-elect. It is more likely, though, that they will continue to ramp up protection to that level before the electoral college meets. We’ve been here before. In 2000, the election results were in limbo for 36 days.
The agency has only faced such a decision once before: in the contested 2000 presidential race between Republican George W. Bush and Democratic then-Vice President Al Gore. For 36 days, there was no official president-elect as the two sides were locked in a recount over votes in Florida and then a legal fight that went to the Supreme Court. During that time, the Secret Service maintained the status quo, keeping the vice-presidential protective detail with Gore and continuing to protect Bush as a major candidate.
It’s been a bitter campaign and we likely will get more of the same as this all wraps up.


hotair--2020-11-06--Team Trump: It's not over until it's over

We gave the Decision Desk HQ its own post , so it ’ s fair to give the Trump campaign its own thread in response .
Team Trump fired back over the call of Pennsylvania for Joe Biden , saying that the conclusion was premature for that state as well as the election in general .
Spokesman Matt Morgan released a statement insisting that the legal process for challenging preliminary results will be fully explored , and that they want to make sure that every legal vote is counted — and every illegal vote is not ( formatted for easier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over .
The false projection of Joe Biden as the winner is based on results in four states that are far from final .
Georgia is headed for a recount , where we are confident we will find ballots improperly harvested , and where President Trump will ultimately prevail .
There were many irregularities in Pennsylvania , including having election officials prevent our volunteer legal observers from having meaningful access to vote counting locations .
We prevailed in court on our challenge , but were deprived of valuable time and denied the transparency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In Nevada , there appear to be thousands of individuals who improperly cast mail ballots .
Finally , the President is on course to win Arizona outright , despite the irresponsible and erroneous ‘ calling ’ of the state for Biden by Fox News and the Associated Press .
Biden is relying on these states for his phony claim on the White House , but once the election is final , President Trump will be re-elected .
Indeed , which is why the process this time around has been so problematic .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ systems for national elections are a bad idea .
We could easily have accommodated COVID-19 concerns through existing absentee balloting and early in-person voting , allowing states to use normal processes and deadlines to bolster confidence in our ability to achieve what Ivanka declares here .
Anyway , Team Trump is correct that it ’ s not over yet .
They have procedural and then legal recourses to challenge results in states where those questionable processes resulted in narrow wins .
We can expect them to fully explore those options , and Donald @ @ @ @ @ @ @ utilize them .
However , history tells us that those rarely succeed in changing election results , so people should set their expectations accordingly .
Or is there something about this year that makes this the capper ?
Just remember that states will have to produce their slate of electors by December 8 to meet the “ safe harbor ” protection for later challenges .
They will have to have those slates ready by December 14 at the latest no matter what , or else those states won ’ t be able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as that is the date they meet to finalize the presidential and vice-presidential election .
If enough states do not send electors so that no candidate gets 270 votes , then the House of Representatives has to elect the president .
That vote goes by state delegations — and Republicans control more state delegations in the House than Democrats .
But that would take place in 2021 , so it won ’ t be a 2020 thing after all .

We gave the Decision Desk HQ its own post, so it’s fair to give the Trump campaign its own thread in response. Team Trump fired back over the call of Pennsylvania for Joe Biden, saying that the conclusion was premature for that state as well as the election in general. Spokesman Matt Morgan released a statement insisting that the legal process for challenging preliminary results will be fully explored, and that they want to make sure that every legal vote is counted — and every illegal vote is not (formatted for easier readability):
This election is not over. The false projection of Joe Biden as the winner is based on results in four states that are far from final. Georgia is headed for a recount, where we are confident we will find ballots improperly harvested, and where President Trump will ultimately prevail. There were many irregularities in Pennsylvania, including having election officials prevent our volunteer legal observers from having meaningful access to vote counting locations. We prevailed in court on our challenge, but were deprived of valuable time and denied the transparency we are entitled to under state law. In Nevada, there appear to be thousands of individuals who improperly cast mail ballots. Finally, the President is on course to win Arizona outright, despite the irresponsible and erroneous ‘calling’ of the state for Biden by Fox News and the Associated Press. Biden is relying on these states for his phony claim on the White House, but once the election is final, President Trump will be re-elected.
Ivanka Trump put it more succinctly:
Every legally cast vote should be counted. Every illegally cast vote should not. This should not be controversial. This is not a partisan statement — free and fair elections are the foundation of our democracy. 🇺🇸 — Ivanka Trump (@IvankaTrump) November 6, 2020
Indeed, which is why the process this time around has been so problematic. As we are discovering, ad-hoc voting systems for national elections are a bad idea. We could easily have accommodated COVID-19 concerns through existing absentee balloting and early in-person voting, allowing states to use normal processes and deadlines to bolster confidence in our ability to achieve what Ivanka declares here.
Anyway, Team Trump is correct that it’s not over yet. They have procedural and then legal recourses to challenge results in states where those questionable processes resulted in narrow wins. We can expect them to fully explore those options, and Donald Trump being Donald Trump, to fully utilize them. However, history tells us that those rarely succeed in changing election results, so people should set their expectations accordingly.
Or is there something about this year that makes this the capper?
Actually, litigation leading to Trump remaining president after the media called it for Biden would be the most 2020 thing of all. — Ashe Short (@AsheSchow) November 6, 2020
Just remember that states will have to produce their slate of electors by December 8 to meet the “safe harbor” protection for later challenges. They will have to have those slates ready by December 14 at the latest no matter what, or else those states won’t be able to participate in the Electoral College at all, as that is the date they meet to finalize the presidential and vice-presidential election. If enough states do not send electors so that no candidate gets 270 votes, then the House of Representatives has to elect the president. That vote goes by state delegations — and Republicans control more state delegations in the House than Democrats.
But that would take place in 2021, so it won’t be a 2020 thing after all.


hotair--2020-11-06--Let's face it: Mail-in balloting was a disaster

Needless to say , there will be a lot of questions about the slow roll from Election Night results to today ’ s end game of an apparent — but not yet certified — Joe Biden victory .
The most frustrating part of those questions is that they could have easily been avoided , especially given the months of preparation we had .
The decision by states to push mass mail-in balloting with no preparation , to prevent Election Day counting of those ballots , and to ignore statutory deadlines on delivery created a cloud over what should be a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then compounded those issues with their lack of clarity on the number of outstanding ballots and attempts to lock observers out of the process in key states .
Add in the flexible rules and procedures around mail-in balloting , and it ’ s easy to see why the spectacle undermined confidence in the results of this election with a large number of voters .
The Supreme Court should get some blame for this in Pennsylvania , thanks to their punt on statutory deadlines at a time when the state could have corrected the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Had states properly prepared for this with more efficient ballot systems and especially by starting the counting process of mail-in ballots on or even before Election Day , much of that confidence-sapping could have been avoided .
It ’ s true that we are probably too used to getting results quickly , but it ’ s also true that it ’ s entirely possible to achieve that .
Look at Florida , Minnesota , Ohio , and a handful of other states whose totals were quickly tallied .
They have efficient ballot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possible recounts ) and a rational manner of dealing with counts for absentee ballots .
Quick and accurate results with minimal human intervention and within pre-established rules build confidence .
Dragged-out results with rule changes and lots of human intervention do not .
On Tuesday evening , no one would have been terribly surprised to hear Trump had lost Pennsylvania , Georgia , and Arizona ; the latter two had been trending toward Democrats for the last few election cycles , and PA is normally a Democratic state in presidential elections anyway .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that matter .
But dragging this out and counting the mail-in vote for days after the Election Day vote turned into a disaster for voter confidence — without which a democracy can not operate properly .
Does that mean the results are fraudulent ?
We ’ ll have to see what evidence comes to the fore , but consider what happened in the down-ballot races .
If widespread fraud took place , then it should have impacted races all the way down the ballot .
As we have learned , though , Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that they figured they had in the bag , and they lost state legislative races as well .
They didn ’ t have a single conversion at the state level .
Certainly the presidency was the biggest prize , but Senate and House races aren ’ t small potatoes , and Democrats were counting on state legislatures to control redistricting next year .
Florida learned from its 2000 disaster and made its election system one of the best in the nation .
The states that turned the 2020 election into a game of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ learn this time around .
Update : I laid the blame at the feet of the states ( and SCOTUS ) , not the parties .
However , just in case anyone does think that the states ’ failures are uniquely partisan , Radley Balko has a reminder : Yes indeed .
That was true in states controlled in whole or in part by both parties .

Needless to say, there will be a lot of questions about the slow roll from Election Night results to today’s end game of an apparent — but not yet certified — Joe Biden victory. The most frustrating part of those questions is that they could have easily been avoided, especially given the months of preparation we had. The decision by states to push mass mail-in balloting with no preparation, to prevent Election Day counting of those ballots, and to ignore statutory deadlines on delivery created a cloud over what should be a transparent and efficient process.
Several states then compounded those issues with their lack of clarity on the number of outstanding ballots and attempts to lock observers out of the process in key states. Add in the flexible rules and procedures around mail-in balloting, and it’s easy to see why the spectacle undermined confidence in the results of this election with a large number of voters. The Supreme Court should get some blame for this in Pennsylvania, thanks to their punt on statutory deadlines at a time when the state could have corrected the system to abide by its own law.
Had states properly prepared for this with more efficient ballot systems and especially by starting the counting process of mail-in ballots on or even before Election Day, much of that confidence-sapping could have been avoided. It’s true that we are probably too used to getting results quickly, but it’s also true that it’s entirely possible to achieve that. Look at Florida, Minnesota, Ohio, and a handful of other states whose totals were quickly tallied. They have efficient ballot systems (complete with paper ballots for possible recounts) and a rational manner of dealing with counts for absentee ballots.
Quick and accurate results with minimal human intervention and within pre-established rules build confidence. Dragged-out results with rule changes and lots of human intervention do not. On Tuesday evening, no one would have been terribly surprised to hear Trump had lost Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona; the latter two had been trending toward Democrats for the last few election cycles, and PA is normally a Democratic state in presidential elections anyway. So are Wisconsin and Michigan, for that matter. But dragging this out and counting the mail-in vote for days after the Election Day vote turned into a disaster for voter confidence — without which a democracy cannot operate properly.
Does that mean the results are fraudulent? We’ll have to see what evidence comes to the fore, but consider what happened in the down-ballot races. If widespread fraud took place, then it should have impacted races all the way down the ballot. As we have learned, though, Democrats lost races in the House and Senate that they figured they had in the bag, and they lost state legislative races as well. They didn’t have a single conversion at the state level. Certainly the presidency was the biggest prize, but Senate and House races aren’t small potatoes, and Democrats were counting on state legislatures to control redistricting next year.
Florida learned from its 2000 disaster and made its election system one of the best in the nation. The states that turned the 2020 election into a game of smoke and mirrors have a lesson to learn this time around.
Update: I laid the blame at the feet of the states (and SCOTUS), not the parties. However, just in case anyone does think that the states’ failures are uniquely partisan, Radley Balko has a reminder:
Shouldn’t you have mentioned the Republican legislatures who refused to allow the canvassing of mail-in ballots before Election Day? — Radley Balko (@radleybalko) November 6, 2020
Yes indeed. That was true in states controlled in whole or in part by both parties.


hotair--2020-11-06--Breaking: Decision Desk HQ calls PA, election for Biden

By now , this should surprise no one .
Our partners at Decision Desk HQ have looked at the dwindling prospects for Donald Trump in Pennsylvania after Joe Biden took a 6,000-vote lead this morning in the late ballot counts in Philadelphia .
With almost all other counties having tallied up , their analysis concludes that Biden won the Keystone State … and with it the presidency .
Here ’ s the 270towin.com map on their calls : Even without Georgia , Arizona , or Nevada , Pennsylvania gives Biden the win with 273 Electoral College votes .
If Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he can do is 265 .
With Nevada looking pretty solid for Biden at the moment and Georgia sliding his way , Biden will likely get at least 295 electors ; if he holds on in Arizona , he ’ ll get 306 — the same amount Trump won in 2016 .
We ’ ll have more on this as the day wears on , of course , including reaction from both camps and analysis of the next steps .
This is still not official ; states have to certify results , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the way .
But it ’ s getting tougher and tougher to see how this flips back to a Trump win .

By now, this should surprise no one. Our partners at Decision Desk HQ have looked at the dwindling prospects for Donald Trump in Pennsylvania after Joe Biden took a 6,000-vote lead this morning in the late ballot counts in Philadelphia. With almost all other counties having tallied up, their analysis concludes that Biden won the Keystone State … and with it the presidency.
Decision Desk HQ projects that @JoeBiden has won Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for a total of 273. Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States of America. Race called at 11-06 08:50 AM EST All Results: https://t.co/BgcQsEyt3j — Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 6, 2020
Here’s the 270towin.com map on their calls:
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
Even without Georgia, Arizona, or Nevada, Pennsylvania gives Biden the win with 273 Electoral College votes. If Trump wins the remaining states, the best he can do is 265. With Nevada looking pretty solid for Biden at the moment and Georgia sliding his way, Biden will likely get at least 295 electors; if he holds on in Arizona, he’ll get 306 — the same amount Trump won in 2016.
We’ll have more on this as the day wears on, of course, including reaction from both camps and analysis of the next steps. This is still not official; states have to certify results, and Trump will demand recanvasses and recounts along the way. But it’s getting tougher and tougher to see how this flips back to a Trump win.


hotair--2020-11-07--The biggest loser in this election? Confidence in the voting process

Despite Joe Biden ’ s confidence in “ the story this election is telling us ” and the assumption that he ’ s going to win , the 2020 presidential election is still dragging on .
Georgia is going to a recount and the potential for court challenges is still brewing in Pennsylvania , Nevada and Arizona .
I honestly don ’ t know if Donald Trump can pull one last , giant rabbit out of his hat here , but we ’ re obviously just going to have to be patient for a while longer while making sure that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s that “ process ” that I wanted to talk about today .
I was looking at one breathless report from the Associated Press while having coffee this morning and was struck by how desperately many MSM outlets seem to be to bat down any questions about how fairly , accurately and legally the counting is being handled .
At this point , they ’ re attacking Republican objections to perceived irregularities more stridently than they are the President himself .
Words such as “ baseless ” and “ unproven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And reporters are more interested in which Republicans are going along with Trump or gainsaying him than the underlying questions being raised .
President Donald Trump ’ s wild and unsupported claims of voter fraud have emerged as a high-stakes Republican loyalty test that illustrates the tug of war likely to define the future of the GOP whether he wins or loses the presidency .
There is a pervasive sense among current and former GOP officials that the president ’ s behavior is irresponsible if not dangerous , but a divide has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ call him out publicly and those who aren ’ t .
Driving their calculus is an open acknowledgment that Trump ’ s better-than-expected showing on Election Day ensures that he will remain the Republican Party ’ s most powerful voice for years to come even if he loses .
Each individual claim of irregularities in handling the mountain of mail-in ballots currently being counted will need to be examined closely by observers from both parties .
But at this point , the stream of questions and accusations arising in nearly every battleground state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does anyone expect the nation ’ s confidence in the outcome of this process to remain intact ?
Ed Morrissey already pointed out how a variety of technical issues and , frankly , administrative incompetence in several states turned this mail-in voting fiasco into a disaster .
But I think it runs deeper than that .
We were already becoming increasingly aware that the opportunity for voter fraud was more common than the mainstream media will ever admit , even if we don ’ t know precisely how much is going on .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ York City and Florida after early voting began , and that ’ s just the ones that were caught .
Yet those are outside , criminal actors and we have ways of at least attempting to detect them and prosecuting the guilty parties .
What ’ s become far more of a concern is the way we handle ballots and the process of people casting their votes , be it in person on election day , at early voting polling stations , or , most importantly , through mail-in ballots .
I think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a fresh look at the very real human beings involved in ensuring this critical task is completed honestly and efficiently .
It ’ s long been a running joke in political punditry that our polling places are generally staffed by “ blue-haired ladies ” who might not be the most technically savvy people to assist voters with modern electronic voting devices .
But the reality is that every stage of the voting process relies heavily on an army of fallible and potentially even corruptible human beings , many of whom are unpaid volunteers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there because of a sense of public duty and a desire to serve .
But others may not be .
When the vast majority of voting is done in person , whether it be through older “ lever ” machines or the newer optical scanners , confidence in the integrity of the system can remain fairly high .
As long as you are the person showing up to fill in the ovals and blanks on a ballot and you feed it into the machine yourself , the chances for malicious interference appear to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ properly .
If there are any questions as to how your ballot is filled out , they can be directly addressed at that time with you partaking in the process .
And in previous elections , the number of absentee or mail-in ballots was generally too low to tip the outcome of all but the closest of races .
This year has obviously been different .
Every one of those paper ballots that were either sent through the mail or dropped off in a collection bin has to eventually arrive at a Board @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a human being has to open the envelope , remove the ballot and inspect it for processing .
We ’ ve watched videos of workers with felt pens in hand , marking various things on ballots before either accepting or rejecting them .
Sometimes that ’ s part of the normal , required process .
But what if someone is “ filling in the blanks ” themselves ?
In other places , we didn ’ t even get to observe the process because people were taping pizza boxes to the windows so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the prying eyes of the public .
I ’ m sorry , but after seeing all of this malarkey unfolding before our eyes , how solid should anyone ’ s confidence be that the workers and volunteers carrying out this critical duty haven ’ t been infiltrated by bad actors that are looking to nudge the results in a razor-close race in their preferred direction ?
Yes , most states allow for “ poll watchers ” from each party to monitor the activity , but one person with two good eyes can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ With all of this in mind , I ’ m fairly sure the process itself may turn out to be the biggest loser of the 2020 election and we should be able to fix this .
First of all , massive mail-in voting should not become the new normal until there is a more automated and transparent way to handle paper ballots developed .
And how difficult would it be to have live video and audio recordings made at each ballot-counting center and available for review during potential court challenges after the race @ @ @ @ @ @ @ era where half the country has Ring video surveillance on their porches .
It couldn ’ t be that much of a hurdle to overcome .
Other possibilities abound .
But something definitely needs to change , no matter what approach we settle on .

Despite Joe Biden’s confidence in “the story this election is telling us” and the assumption that he’s going to win, the 2020 presidential election is still dragging on. Georgia is going to a recount and the potential for court challenges is still brewing in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona. I honestly don’t know if Donald Trump can pull one last, giant rabbit out of his hat here, but we’re obviously just going to have to be patient for a while longer while making sure that Republican officials are watching the process closely.
It’s that “process” that I wanted to talk about today. I was looking at one breathless report from the Associated Press while having coffee this morning and was struck by how desperately many MSM outlets seem to be to bat down any questions about how fairly, accurately and legally the counting is being handled. At this point, they’re attacking Republican objections to perceived irregularities more stridently than they are the President himself. Words such as “baseless” and “unproven” are dominating the headlines this weekend. And reporters are more interested in which Republicans are going along with Trump or gainsaying him than the underlying questions being raised.
President Donald Trump’s wild and unsupported claims of voter fraud have emerged as a high-stakes Republican loyalty test that illustrates the tug of war likely to define the future of the GOP whether he wins or loses the presidency. There is a pervasive sense among current and former GOP officials that the president’s behavior is irresponsible if not dangerous, but a divide has emerged between those influential Republicans willing to call him out publicly and those who aren’t. Driving their calculus is an open acknowledgment that Trump’s better-than-expected showing on Election Day ensures that he will remain the Republican Party’s most powerful voice for years to come even if he loses.
Each individual claim of irregularities in handling the mountain of mail-in ballots currently being counted will need to be examined closely by observers from both parties. But at this point, the stream of questions and accusations arising in nearly every battleground state has turned into a tsunami. How does anyone expect the nation’s confidence in the outcome of this process to remain intact? Ed Morrissey already pointed out how a variety of technical issues and, frankly, administrative incompetence in several states turned this mail-in voting fiasco into a disaster. But I think it runs deeper than that.
We were already becoming increasingly aware that the opportunity for voter fraud was more common than the mainstream media will ever admit, even if we don’t know precisely how much is going on. Dead people were found voting in New York City and Florida after early voting began, and that’s just the ones that were caught. Yet those are outside, criminal actors and we have ways of at least attempting to detect them and prosecuting the guilty parties.
What’s become far more of a concern is the way we handle ballots and the process of people casting their votes, be it in person on election day, at early voting polling stations, or, most importantly, through mail-in ballots. I think it’s high time we took a fresh look at the very real human beings involved in ensuring this critical task is completed honestly and efficiently. It’s long been a running joke in political punditry that our polling places are generally staffed by “blue-haired ladies” who might not be the most technically savvy people to assist voters with modern electronic voting devices. But the reality is that every stage of the voting process relies heavily on an army of fallible and potentially even corruptible human beings, many of whom are unpaid volunteers. I’m sure many are there because of a sense of public duty and a desire to serve. But others may not be.
When the vast majority of voting is done in person, whether it be through older “lever” machines or the newer optical scanners, confidence in the integrity of the system can remain fairly high. As long as you are the person showing up to fill in the ovals and blanks on a ballot and you feed it into the machine yourself, the chances for malicious interference appear to be minimal if the machinery is functioning properly. If there are any questions as to how your ballot is filled out, they can be directly addressed at that time with you partaking in the process. And in previous elections, the number of absentee or mail-in ballots was generally too low to tip the outcome of all but the closest of races.
This year has obviously been different. Every one of those paper ballots that were either sent through the mail or dropped off in a collection bin has to eventually arrive at a Board of Elections center. At that point, a human being has to open the envelope, remove the ballot and inspect it for processing. We’ve watched videos of workers with felt pens in hand, marking various things on ballots before either accepting or rejecting them. Sometimes that’s part of the normal, required process. But what if someone is “filling in the blanks” themselves? In other places, we didn’t even get to observe the process because people were taping pizza boxes to the windows so the processing could take place hidden away from the prying eyes of the public.
I’m sorry, but after seeing all of this malarkey unfolding before our eyes, how solid should anyone’s confidence be that the workers and volunteers carrying out this critical duty haven’t been infiltrated by bad actors that are looking to nudge the results in a razor-close race in their preferred direction? Yes, most states allow for “poll watchers” from each party to monitor the activity, but one person with two good eyes can’t be everywhere at once.
With all of this in mind, I’m fairly sure the process itself may turn out to be the biggest loser of the 2020 election and we should be able to fix this. First of all, massive mail-in voting should not become the new normal until there is a more automated and transparent way to handle paper ballots developed. And how difficult would it be to have live video and audio recordings made at each ballot-counting center and available for review during potential court challenges after the race is finished? We live in an era where half the country has Ring video surveillance on their porches. It couldn’t be that much of a hurdle to overcome. Other possibilities abound. But something definitely needs to change, no matter what approach we settle on.


hotair--2020-11-07--Another potential GOP pickup in NY tells an interesting story

Last night , John talked about the surprising possibility that the congressional district where he lives looks dangerously close to flipping back to the GOP .
( A Democrat flipped the traditionally red seat to blue in 2018 . )
The problem is that the Republican challenger is only ahead by a little less than 5,000 votes and there were still 175,000 mail-in ballots left to count .
Since Democrats across the country were generally far more excited about doing early , mail-in voting than most Republicans , that could mean that the Democratic incumbent could still be declared to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the counting is finished .
On the other side of the country , I happen to live in New York ’ s 22nd district where we have a somewhat similar situation playing out .
In 2018 , Democrat Anthony Brindisis , most widely-known for the infamous mob connections to his father ’ s law firm , narrowly defeated Republican Congresswoman Claudia Tenney .
The vote was so close that it was nearly three weeks before the race was called and Tenney conceded .
She came back this year to win the primary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As of yesterday , it looked like she ’ s holding onto a more comfortable lead than the one we ’ re seeing in John ’ s district But , yet again , we ’ re lacking a lot of information about the pending absentee ballots .
( Syracuse.com ) U.S. Rep. Anthony Brindisi will likely need to win the absentee ballot count over Claudia Tenney by a margin of at least 2-to-1 if he wants to keep his seat in Congress .
Brindisi , D-Utica , told voters in the 22nd @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a long couple of weeks ” as up to 70,160 absentee ballots are counted in the district .
He ’ s betting that he can overcome a 28,000-vote lead that Tenney built up on Election Day .
Tenney , a Republican from New Hartford , won the in-person vote at the polls , 53-42 % , according to unofficial election returns .
The race in NY-22 is a mess for multiple reasons that should be obvious by now .
The in-person voting on election day went to Tenney by double digits , 53-42 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tenney up by nearly 30,000 votes , including early voting and the mail-in ballots they had received thus far .
The headlines in the local press for this race say that they are still waiting to finish counting “ up to 70,160 absentee ballots.
” But that ’ s how many ballots they sent out .
Obviously , not all of them will have been returned , though a good portion might .
Adding to the initial confusion was the fact that the results from one entire county were missing from the initial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into the Chenango County Board of Elections computer systems with a ransomware attack .
This is the level of system integrity we have for the machines tallying our votes ?
The next problem is that New York , like many other blue states , extended the window for when ballots could be received and counted out to November 10th , a full week after election day .
They ’ re technically supposed to have been postmarked by election day , but we ’ ve seen how that ’ s been going in other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on someone to keep “ finding ” more ballots all weekend .
Still , he would need to win the mail-in ballot war by a better than two-to-one margin to overcome Tenney ’ s lead .
If you don ’ t think that could still magically happen , you haven ’ t been paying attention .
It really looks as if Tenney has a significantly good chance of prevailing , but as we discussed in a different article this morning , the more ballots that keep showing up over the next four days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the less confident people will be in the results .
This system needs to be completely rethought and improved .

Last night, John talked about the surprising possibility that the congressional district where he lives looks dangerously close to flipping back to the GOP. (A Democrat flipped the traditionally red seat to blue in 2018.) The problem is that the Republican challenger is only ahead by a little less than 5,000 votes and there were still 175,000 mail-in ballots left to count. Since Democrats across the country were generally far more excited about doing early, mail-in voting than most Republicans, that could mean that the Democratic incumbent could still be declared to be the winner by a wide margin when the counting is finished. On the other side of the country, I happen to live in New York’s 22nd district where we have a somewhat similar situation playing out.
In 2018, Democrat Anthony Brindisis, most widely-known for the infamous mob connections to his father’s law firm, narrowly defeated Republican Congresswoman Claudia Tenney. The vote was so close that it was nearly three weeks before the race was called and Tenney conceded. She came back this year to win the primary and challenge Brindisi for her old seat. As of yesterday, it looked like she’s holding onto a more comfortable lead than the one we’re seeing in John’s district But, yet again, we’re lacking a lot of information about the pending absentee ballots. (Syracuse.com)
U.S. Rep. Anthony Brindisi will likely need to win the absentee ballot count over Claudia Tenney by a margin of at least 2-to-1 if he wants to keep his seat in Congress. Brindisi, D-Utica, told voters in the 22nd Congressional on Wednesday to prepare “for a long couple of weeks” as up to 70,160 absentee ballots are counted in the district. He’s betting that he can overcome a 28,000-vote lead that Tenney built up on Election Day. Tenney, a Republican from New Hartford, won the in-person vote at the polls, 53-42%, according to unofficial election returns.
The race in NY-22 is a mess for multiple reasons that should be obvious by now. The in-person voting on election day went to Tenney by double digits, 53-42. The live-updating Associated Press tracker showed Tenney up by nearly 30,000 votes, including early voting and the mail-in ballots they had received thus far. The headlines in the local press for this race say that they are still waiting to finish counting “up to 70,160 absentee ballots.” But that’s how many ballots they sent out. Obviously, not all of them will have been returned, though a good portion might.
Adding to the initial confusion was the fact that the results from one entire county were missing from the initial totals. Why? Because somebody hacked into the Chenango County Board of Elections computer systems with a ransomware attack. This is the level of system integrity we have for the machines tallying our votes?
The next problem is that New York, like many other blue states, extended the window for when ballots could be received and counted out to November 10th, a full week after election day. They’re technically supposed to have been postmarked by election day, but we’ve seen how that’s been going in other states. Brindisi is no doubt counting on someone to keep “finding” more ballots all weekend. Still, he would need to win the mail-in ballot war by a better than two-to-one margin to overcome Tenney’s lead.
If you don’t think that could still magically happen, you haven’t been paying attention. It really looks as if Tenney has a significantly good chance of prevailing, but as we discussed in a different article this morning, the more ballots that keep showing up over the next four days and the more the vote total shifts, the less confident people will be in the results. This system needs to be completely rethought and improved.