hotair--2020-06-16--Josh Hawley: Yesterday's gay rights decision is the end of the conservative legal movement

My pet theory for why Ted Cruz has taken to talking smack at C-list actors on Twitter lately is that he realizes he ’ s being out-populist-ed by the likes of Hawley and Tom Cotton and isn ’ t sure what he can do to change that .
All three are running for president in the next cycle but Cotton and Hawley have each done a better job this year of signaling to the nationalist right that they ’ ll use state power to wage war on their enemies for them .
In Cotton ’ s case that means literal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voice in support of using the U.S. military against looters during the George Floyd protests , knowing full well the risk that would pose even to peaceful demonstrators .
Hawley ’ s focused on regulating Big Tech for its anti-conservative biases and more recently went to the mat for preserving the names of Confederate traitors on U.S. military bases because to do otherwise would be divisive or whatever .
They ’ re playing to win .
Cruz has also made noise about Big Tech , arguing that under Section 230 of the Communications @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from defamation suits if they moderate content , but ( a ) that ’ s not true and he certainly knows it and ( b ) Hawley is more closely identified with wanting to regulate the tech industry than Cruz is .
Cruz ’ s problem is that the brand he claimed for himself before 2016 — Mr .
Constitutional Conservative — is no longer in fashion among the grassroots voters he courted and now he ’ s having to reposition as a different kind of populist ahead of 2024 .
But what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nationalist , Hawley ’ s the culture warrior and regulator , Cruz is … what ?
He ’ s the guy who talks smack to C-list actors , for now .
He ’ d better find a new niche for himself or else he ’ s going to get run off the field in four years .
Imagine what good he could do if he accepted that his presidential moment is past and contented himself with being a solid conservatarian senator .
Anyway , that ’ s a long introduction to this latest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the sort of thing you would have expected Cruz to say on the Senate floor circa 2015 .
These comments are aimed at an array of Trump constituencies — social conservatives , anti-establishmentarians general , even Federalist Society law nerds who were angry yesterday to see Neil Gorsuch , of all people , decide that the text of a law that was passed nearly 60 years ago limits an employer ’ s right to fire someone for being gay .
Sen. Josh Hawley had a stunning view of the Supreme Court ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : It “ represents the end of the conservative legal movement.
” … “ Every honest person knows that the laws in this country today , they are made almost entirely by unelected bureaucrats and courts .
They are not made by this body .
Why not ?
Because this body doesn ’ t want to make law , ” Hawley said .
“ This body is terrified about being held accountable for anything on subject.
” … Explaining that the religious right supports the GOP party bosses in return for judges that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ the bargain that has been offered to religious conservatives for years now is a bad one .
It ’ s time to reject it.
” “ We ’ re supposed to keep our mouth shut while the party establishment pursues ruinous trade policies .
We ’ re supposed to keep our mouths shut while those at the upper end of the income bracket get all the attention , ” he said .
“ Because there would be pro-Constitution religious liberty judges ?
Except for they aren ’ t .
These judges don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s entirely right about Congress ’ s timidity and impotence .
It got lost in the uproar over yesterday ’ s decision that the Democrats could have easily amended the civil rights laws to outlaw workplace discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation when they enjoyed total control of government in 2009 .
But that was still years before Barack Obama and various other high-powered liberals were willing to admit publicly that they supported legalizing same-sex marriage , so fearful were Dems of scaring off parts of the new majority they had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gays .
By the same token , Republicans *could* use yesterday ’ s decision as part of their own campaign message this fall — “ give us a congressional majority and we ’ ll reinstate the right to discriminate !
” — but that would be a bad move for two reasons .
First , Americans overwhelmingly oppose letting companies fire people for being gay .
A YouGov poll last year found the public split 11/73 on the issue , with Republicans at 18/65 .
Second , and further to Hawley ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oblige the GOP to do something about it if they won back the House .
And the last thing the GOP wants to do anymore is legislate .
So go figure that Republican senators sound pretty happy about Gorsuch ’ s opinion today .
He took the issue off the table for them !
Now they don ’ t have to worry about Pelosi passing a bill to end workplace discrimination and then pressuring Republicans to choose between annoying social conservatives by passing it and annoying the rest of the country by blocking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we recognize that all Americans have equal rights under our Constitution , ” Sen. Deb Fischer ( R-Neb . )
said .
“ I ’ m fine with it.
” … “ It ’ s the law of the land .
And it probably makes uniform what a lot of states have already done .
And probably negates Congress ’ s necessity for acting , ” said Sen. Chuck Grassley ( R-Iowa ) , who ran the Senate Judiciary Committee during Gorsuch ’ s confirmation .
He said he was not disappointed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gorsuch , Chief Justice John Roberts also joined the court ’ s Democrat-appointed justices in the 6-3 ruling… “ It demonstrated Gorsuch ’ s independence , ” Senate Majority Whip John Thune said .
“ The country ’ s obviously changed a lot on that issue .
And I assume that he looked at the facts and the law and that ’ s the conclusion he came to .
And that ’ s what , when we nominated him and confirmed him , we wanted him to.
” It ’ s passe to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The salient point is that many members of Congress are happy to have SCOTUS act as a super-legislator , especially if the Court ends up resolving an issue about which a party ’ s base feels strongly but a majority of voters feel differently .
That ’ s a lose/lose for a legislator .
Let the judge handle it !
That ’ s the mentality Hawley ’ s criticizing , aptly .
One thing about this , though .
By declaring that the conservative legal movement has failed ( a fine , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s inescapably accusing Trump of having blown it by picking Gorsuch .
Right , right , he can try to shift the blame by claiming that our poor president was merely given bad advice by the treacherous conservative legal movementarians who advised him on the nomination .
But when push comes to shove he ’ s saying that Trump — and Trump ’ s advisors — can ’ t be trusted to secure conservatives ’ interests with their judicial picks , which was *the* argument on the right for turning out to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you disliked him .
I saw social cons grousing on Twitter yesterday that Gorsuch ’ s decision would cost him the election this fall because now evangelicals had no reason to show up for him .
That ’ s not true — in reality it won ’ t cost him a single vote — but the underlying critique , that the Trump populist revolution hasn ’ t delivered on its promises , is a potent set-up for Hawley ’ s run in 2024 .
He ’ ll never be able to make that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but if he can start making it implicitly now it might give him an inside track in the 2024 primaries .
Make no mistake , though .
Had he been in the Senate at the time , Hawley would have voted enthusiastically to confirm Gorsuch .
Just like he would have voted enthusiastically to confirm John Roberts , for whom he clerked — and who was also in the majority of yesterday ’ s gay-rights decision .
President Hawley ’ s not going to do anything for you on judges that President @ @ @ @ @

My pet theory for why Ted Cruz has taken to talking smack at C-list actors on Twitter lately is that he realizes he’s being out-populist-ed by the likes of Hawley and Tom Cotton and isn’t sure what he can do to change that. All three are running for president in the next cycle but Cotton and Hawley have each done a better job this year of signaling to the nationalist right that they’ll use state power to wage war on their enemies for them. In Cotton’s case that means literal war: He was the loudest Republican voice in support of using the U.S. military against looters during the George Floyd protests, knowing full well the risk that would pose even to peaceful demonstrators. Hawley’s focused on regulating Big Tech for its anti-conservative biases and more recently went to the mat for preserving the names of Confederate traitors on U.S. military bases because to do otherwise would be divisive or whatever.
They’re playing to win. Cruz has also made noise about Big Tech, arguing that under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act companies supposedly forfeit their immunity from defamation suits if they moderate content, but (a) that’s not true and he certainly knows it and (b) Hawley is more closely identified with wanting to regulate the tech industry than Cruz is. Cruz’s problem is that the brand he claimed for himself before 2016 — Mr. Constitutional Conservative — is no longer in fashion among the grassroots voters he courted and now he’s having to reposition as a different kind of populist ahead of 2024. But what kind? Cotton’s the belligerent nationalist, Hawley’s the culture warrior and regulator, Cruz is … what? He’s the guy who talks smack to C-list actors, for now. He’d better find a new niche for himself or else he’s going to get run off the field in four years. Imagine what good he could do if he accepted that his presidential moment is past and contented himself with being a solid conservatarian senator.
Anyway, that’s a long introduction to this latest floor speech by Hawley, which is the sort of thing you would have expected Cruz to say on the Senate floor circa 2015. These comments are aimed at an array of Trump constituencies — social conservatives, anti-establishmentarians general, even Federalist Society law nerds who were angry yesterday to see Neil Gorsuch, of all people, decide that the text of a law that was passed nearly 60 years ago limits an employer’s right to fire someone for being gay.
Sen. Josh Hawley had a stunning view of the Supreme Court’s decision extending new protections to LGTBQ workers: It “represents the end of the conservative legal movement.”… “Every honest person knows that the laws in this country today, they are made almost entirely by unelected bureaucrats and courts. They are not made by this body. Why not? Because this body doesn’t want to make law,” Hawley said. “This body is terrified about being held accountable for anything on subject.”… Explaining that the religious right supports the GOP party bosses in return for judges that protect religious freedom, Hawley concluded that “the bargain that has been offered to religious conservatives for years now is a bad one. It’s time to reject it.” “We’re supposed to keep our mouth shut while the party establishment pursues ruinous trade policies. We’re supposed to keep our mouths shut while those at the upper end of the income bracket get all the attention,” he said. “Because there would be pro-Constitution religious liberty judges? Except for they aren’t. These judges don’t follow the Constitution.”
He’s entirely right about Congress’s timidity and impotence. It got lost in the uproar over yesterday’s decision that the Democrats could have easily amended the civil rights laws to outlaw workplace discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation when they enjoyed total control of government in 2009. But that was still years before Barack Obama and various other high-powered liberals were willing to admit publicly that they supported legalizing same-sex marriage, so fearful were Dems of scaring off parts of the new majority they had assembled with sudden moves towards equality for gays. By the same token, Republicans *could* use yesterday’s decision as part of their own campaign message this fall — “give us a congressional majority and we’ll reinstate the right to discriminate!” — but that would be a bad move for two reasons. First, Americans overwhelmingly oppose letting companies fire people for being gay. A YouGov poll last year found the public split 11/73 on the issue, with Republicans at 18/65. Second, and further to Hawley’s point, campaigning on the issue would oblige the GOP to do something about it if they won back the House. And the last thing the GOP wants to do anymore is legislate.
So go figure that Republican senators sound pretty happy about Gorsuch’s opinion today. He took the issue off the table for them! Now they don’t have to worry about Pelosi passing a bill to end workplace discrimination and then pressuring Republicans to choose between annoying social conservatives by passing it and annoying the rest of the country by blocking it.
“It’s important that we recognize that all Americans have equal rights under our Constitution,” Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) said. “I’m fine with it.”… “It’s the law of the land. And it probably makes uniform what a lot of states have already done. And probably negates Congress’s necessity for acting,” said Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who ran the Senate Judiciary Committee during Gorsuch’s confirmation. He said he was not disappointed by Gorsuch’s decision. Besides Gorsuch, Chief Justice John Roberts also joined the court’s Democrat-appointed justices in the 6-3 ruling… “It demonstrated Gorsuch’s independence,” Senate Majority Whip John Thune said. “The country’s obviously changed a lot on that issue. And I assume that he looked at the facts and the law and that’s the conclusion he came to. And that’s what, when we nominated him and confirmed him, we wanted him to.”
It’s passe to say that SCOTUS is effectively a super-legislator. The salient point is that many members of Congress are happy to have SCOTUS act as a super-legislator, especially if the Court ends up resolving an issue about which a party’s base feels strongly but a majority of voters feel differently. That’s a lose/lose for a legislator. Let the judge handle it! That’s the mentality Hawley’s criticizing, aptly.
One thing about this, though. By declaring that the conservative legal movement has failed (a fine, dramatic, anti-establishmentarian flourish), he’s inescapably accusing Trump of having blown it by picking Gorsuch. Right, right, he can try to shift the blame by claiming that our poor president was merely given bad advice by the treacherous conservative legal movementarians who advised him on the nomination. But when push comes to shove he’s saying that Trump — and Trump’s advisors — can’t be trusted to secure conservatives’ interests with their judicial picks, which was *the* argument on the right for turning out to vote for Trump in 2016 even if you disliked him. I saw social cons grousing on Twitter yesterday that Gorsuch’s decision would cost him the election this fall because now evangelicals had no reason to show up for him. That’s not true — in reality it won’t cost him a single vote — but the underlying critique, that the Trump populist revolution hasn’t delivered on its promises, is a potent set-up for Hawley’s run in 2024. He’ll never be able to make that critique explicitly for fear of angering Trump, but if he can start making it implicitly now it might give him an inside track in the 2024 primaries.
Make no mistake, though. Had he been in the Senate at the time, Hawley would have voted enthusiastically to confirm Gorsuch. Just like he would have voted enthusiastically to confirm John Roberts, for whom he clerked — and who was also in the majority of yesterday’s gay-rights decision. President Hawley’s not going to do anything for you on judges that President Trump hasn’t.


hotair--2020-06-16--Man arrested for pushing down 92-year-old woman has been arrested 100 previous times

The assault took place in Manhattan last Friday .
A man walking down the sidewalk put his arm out and pushed over a 92-year-old woman who was walking in the other direction .
When she fell , she hit her head on a fire hydrant .
Early Tuesday morning , the NYPD put out video of the assault and asked for tips to identify the suspect .
A few hours later police announced they had apprehended the suspect .
But it turns out they probably could have identified him just by looking at their own files .
The suspect , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bronx , has been arrested 100 previous times .
In fact , he has been arrested three times since February for unprovoked assault .
Each time he has been released because of bail reform .
A senior law enforcement official tells News 4 Brimmage is a recidivist with 100 prior arrests who has gotten a desk appearance ticket for his most recent ones because of bail reform .
He is an NYPD co-response client , which means police have responded with social workers when dealing with him .
Brimmage has an extensive history @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well .
He ’ s been arrested three times since February for alleged assaults .
On March 9 , he allegedly punched a 29-year-old man in an unprovoked attack at a pizza shop in Manhattan .
A few weeks before that , Brimmage allegedly punched a 39-year-old female at a Dunkin ’ Donuts in the Bronx .
On Feb. 4 he allegedly punched a 39-year-old man in the face at that same Dunkin ’ Donuts .
In the latter two cases , he received desk appearance tickets .
Brimmage is also believe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back in February when he stole $ 120 from a woman ’ s purse .
And ABC7 New York reports Brimmage “ became a level 2 sex offender with a July 23 , 2014 arrest for persistent sexual abuse.
” Fortunately , the victim in this case is okay , though she says she ’ s frightened after what happened .
“ I ’ m frightened to tears , ” she said .
“ I ’ m not going to walk there on my own , and it ’ s very upsetting .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ She ’ s still bruised but otherwise OK after the routine walk to the drug store ended with a trip to the ER .
She credits her good health for making it home , where she intends to stay for the time being .
“ I ’ ve felt very safe in the city , and now , forget it , ” she said .
“ I ’ m afraid to go out.
” Brimmage lives in a Bronx homeless shelter .
Police are now worried he will be given “ yet another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reform .
As I ’ ve written many times before , it ’ s not uncommon for homeless people to commit assaults but in many cities even if they are caught they cycle through the system .
Last year , Seattle ’ s City Attorney became outraged when a judge refused to grant probation to a homeless man who had randomly assaulted someone on the street .
The homeless man in that case had been convicted ( not just arrested but convicted ) 72 previous times .

The assault took place in Manhattan last Friday. A man walking down the sidewalk put his arm out and pushed over a 92-year-old woman who was walking in the other direction. When she fell, she hit her head on a fire hydrant. Early Tuesday morning, the NYPD put out video of the assault and asked for tips to identify the suspect.
🚨WANTED for ASSAULT: Do you know him? On 6/12 at 3:23 PM, on 3rd Avenue between 15th Street & 16th Street in Manhattan, he pushed a 92-year-old female to the ground causing her to strike her head on a fire hydrant. Have info? Call/DM @NYPDTips at 800-577-TIPS. pic.twitter.com/SjTltmuNbb — NYPD NEWS (@NYPDnews) June 16, 2020
A few hours later police announced they had apprehended the suspect. But it turns out they probably could have identified him just by looking at their own files. The suspect, identified as 31-year-old Rashid Brimmage of the Bronx, has been arrested 100 previous times. In fact, he has been arrested three times since February for unprovoked assault. Each time he has been released because of bail reform.
A senior law enforcement official tells News 4 Brimmage is a recidivist with 100 prior arrests who has gotten a desk appearance ticket for his most recent ones because of bail reform. He is an NYPD co-response client, which means police have responded with social workers when dealing with him. Brimmage has an extensive history of being emotionally disturbed in police encounters as well. He’s been arrested three times since February for alleged assaults. On March 9, he allegedly punched a 29-year-old man in an unprovoked attack at a pizza shop in Manhattan. A few weeks before that, Brimmage allegedly punched a 39-year-old female at a Dunkin’ Donuts in the Bronx. On Feb. 4 he allegedly punched a 39-year-old man in the face at that same Dunkin’ Donuts. In the latter two cases, he received desk appearance tickets.
Brimmage is also believe to be involved in a grand larceny back in February when he stole $120 from a woman’s purse. And ABC7 New York reports Brimmage “became a level 2 sex offender with a July 23, 2014 arrest for persistent sexual abuse.”
Fortunately, the victim in this case is okay, though she says she’s frightened after what happened.
“I’m frightened to tears,” she said. “I’m not going to walk there on my own, and it’s very upsetting. It’s very upsetting.”… She’s still bruised but otherwise OK after the routine walk to the drug store ended with a trip to the ER. She credits her good health for making it home, where she intends to stay for the time being. “I’ve felt very safe in the city, and now, forget it,” she said. “I’m afraid to go out.”
Brimmage lives in a Bronx homeless shelter. Police are now worried he will be given “yet another desk appearance ticket” because of bail reform.
As I’ve written many times before, it’s not uncommon for homeless people to commit assaults but in many cities even if they are caught they cycle through the system. Last year, Seattle’s City Attorney became outraged when a judge refused to grant probation to a homeless man who had randomly assaulted someone on the street. The homeless man in that case had been convicted (not just arrested but convicted) 72 previous times.


hotair--2020-06-16--NYC disbands plainclothes officers' unit as violent crime surges

Following up on John ’ s coverage from yesterday , the protesters and rioters in New York City aren ’ t getting everything they want , but they ’ re at least getting a piece of the pie .
Amid calls to “ abolish the police , ” Gotham ’ s Police Commissioner announced yesterday that there would be a “ seismic shift ” in Big Apple policing with the disbanding of the undercover anti-crime unit .
Some members of that special task force have been involved in the deaths of subjects , including the very high-profile death of Eric @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that this move will quiet the masses .
The roughly 600 members of this unit will be scattered to various other duties .
( NY Post ) The NYPD is disbanding its undercover anti-crime unit — nearly six years after one of its plainclothes cops killed Eric Garner with a chokehold , sparking the rallying cry of “ I can ’ t breathe ” for the Black Lives Matter movement .
Police Commissioner Dermot Shea announced the change Monday afternoon at police headquarters , describing ending the unit as “ seismic ” shift @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 600 cops — spread out at precinct and public housing patrols across the city — will be reassigned into other posts , including the detective bureau and neighborhood policing efforts .
While scanning the headlines for New York City news , it was kind of unsettling to see the story of the anti-crime unit being disbanded right next to one in the New York Daily News with a very different subject .
“ Murders continue to surge in NYC with 38 killings in the last four weeks.
” Because disbanding your anti-crime unit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do when your in the middle of a surge in murders and other violent crimes , amirite ?
A bloody four-week stretch has helped drive murders up by more than 25 % across New York compared to a year ago , according to NYPD statistics .
The city saw 38 killings over the past four weeks compared to 19 over the same time frame last year .
So far , there have been 32 more murders this year than in the same period in 2019 , with 159 through Sunday .
Shootings have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as of Sunday compared to 317 in the same period last year .
Yep .
The city had literally double the number of murders over the past four weeks than it did during the same period last year .
Shootings are up also , with 77 more being recorded .
But that wasn ’ t all .
Burglaries were up 47 % , with 6,595 incidents versus 4,480 in 2019 .
Auto thefts were up by 60 % .
Granted , there are no doubt a lot of factors at play here .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ bail reform ” law is putting a lot of criminals back out on the street faster .
The overall “ empty the jails ” drive is also creating many more opportunities for recidivism .
And , of course , there are a certain number of criminals who are taking advantage of all the chaos and mayhem surrounding the riots and marches by hitting targets while the cops are otherwise occupied .
But still , the numbers are real .
The crime rates , including murders and shootings , are going up .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ break up one of your most experienced and effective anti-crime units ?
I think both the Mayor and the NYPD need to be able to tell the public whether this is being done because it ’ s the best policy to keep New Yorkers safe or if this is a political sop to the protesters and the Democrats on the City Council .
And if it ’ s the latter , which is what it looks like , that ’ s no way to run a metropolis .

Following up on John’s coverage from yesterday, the protesters and rioters in New York City aren’t getting everything they want, but they’re at least getting a piece of the pie. Amid calls to “abolish the police,” Gotham’s Police Commissioner announced yesterday that there would be a “seismic shift” in Big Apple policing with the disbanding of the undercover anti-crime unit. Some members of that special task force have been involved in the deaths of subjects, including the very high-profile death of Eric Garner. The Commissioner seems to feel that this move will quiet the masses. The roughly 600 members of this unit will be scattered to various other duties. (NY Post)
The NYPD is disbanding its undercover anti-crime unit — nearly six years after one of its plainclothes cops killed Eric Garner with a chokehold, sparking the rallying cry of “I can’t breathe” for the Black Lives Matter movement. Police Commissioner Dermot Shea announced the change Monday afternoon at police headquarters, describing ending the unit as “seismic” shift culturally in the NYPD. The roughly 600 cops — spread out at precinct and public housing patrols across the city — will be reassigned into other posts, including the detective bureau and neighborhood policing efforts.
While scanning the headlines for New York City news, it was kind of unsettling to see the story of the anti-crime unit being disbanded right next to one in the New York Daily News with a very different subject. “Murders continue to surge in NYC with 38 killings in the last four weeks.” Because disbanding your anti-crime unit is precisely the thing you’d do when your in the middle of a surge in murders and other violent crimes, amirite?
A bloody four-week stretch has helped drive murders up by more than 25% across New York compared to a year ago, according to NYPD statistics. The city saw 38 killings over the past four weeks compared to 19 over the same time frame last year. So far, there have been 32 more murders this year than in the same period in 2019, with 159 through Sunday. Shootings have also increased this year, with 394 as of Sunday compared to 317 in the same period last year.
Yep. The city had literally double the number of murders over the past four weeks than it did during the same period last year. Shootings are up also, with 77 more being recorded. But that wasn’t all. Burglaries were up 47%, with 6,595 incidents versus 4,480 in 2019. Auto thefts were up by 60%.
Granted, there are no doubt a lot of factors at play here. As the Commissioner noted, the new “bail reform” law is putting a lot of criminals back out on the street faster. The overall “empty the jails” drive is also creating many more opportunities for recidivism. And, of course, there are a certain number of criminals who are taking advantage of all the chaos and mayhem surrounding the riots and marches by hitting targets while the cops are otherwise occupied.
But still, the numbers are real. The crime rates, including murders and shootings, are going up. Is that really the best time to break up one of your most experienced and effective anti-crime units? I think both the Mayor and the NYPD need to be able to tell the public whether this is being done because it’s the best policy to keep New Yorkers safe or if this is a political sop to the protesters and the Democrats on the City Council. And if it’s the latter, which is what it looks like, that’s no way to run a metropolis.


hotair--2020-06-16--Mike Pence: Don't believe the media. There is no second wave of coronavirus.

This is true ( for now ) , but part of the reason it ’ s true is that in some places the first wave never ended .
It did in New York .
Go look at the graph of deaths from COVID-19 there and you ’ ll see a picture-postcard version of an epidemic curve being crushed .
They had a ferocious first wave .
It ’ s now over .
But New York is the exception , not the rule .
You can see the trend in confirmed cases in all 50 states plus a few territories at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20 jurisdictions are the trendlines clearly downward .
In 12 they ’ re flat , and in 21 they ’ re up recently .
In the United States as a whole , the daily number of new confirmed cases hasn ’ t moved much for an entire month despite the huge merciful decline in the New York tri-state area .
There ’ s a “ background noise ” level of daily infections now , around 20,000 or so , which we seem to have collectively decided is acceptable and/or unavoidable .
So while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isn ’ t getting worse nationally , it ’ s not getting better either .
The first wave rolls on endlessly , at least in terms of confirmed cases .
The number of daily deaths has dropped quite a bit , though , which I mentioned in my post this morning and which Pence rightly mentions here .
That ’ s genuine progress .
While talk of an increase in cases dominates cable news coverage , more than half of states are actually seeing cases decline or remain stable .
Every state , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the exception of three , have positive test rates under 10 % .
And in the six states that have reached more than 1,000 new cases a day , increased testing has allowed public health officials to identify most of the outbreaks in particular settings—prisons , nursing homes and meatpacking facilities—and contain them .
Lost in the coverage is the fact that today less than 6 % of Americans tested each week are found to have the virus .
Cases have stabilized over the past two weeks , with the daily average case @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from 30,000 in April and 25,000 in May .
And in the past five days , deaths are down to fewer than 750 a day , a dramatic decline from 2,500 a day a few weeks ago—and a far cry from the 5,000 a day that some were predicting… The media has tried to scare the American people every step of the way , and these grim predictions of a second wave are no different .
The truth is , whatever the media says , our whole-of-America approach has been a success .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ ve cared for the most vulnerable , we ’ ve saved lives , and we ’ ve created a solid foundation for whatever challenges we may face in the future .
That ’ s a cause for celebration , not the media ’ s fear mongering .
Sean Trende cooked up this visual aid to show how much better things have gotten .
If I were Trump , I ’ d have this blown up to poster size and displayed at the next White House presser : The trend in confirmed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks but the other trends look good .
Where are the trouble spots , then ?
The positivity rates tell us .
There ’ s Arizona… …and Florida , which remains a success story of the pandemic but is seeing cases climb recently : Hospitalizations in Florida remain lower than they were at the peak , but the state is now seeing its highest number of cases ever on a rolling seven-day basis .
Per Bloomberg , they ’ ve gone from averaging fewer than 5,000 cases per week in May to more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the last 14 days .
I hope Pence is right that most of this growth is due to particular “ hot spots ” rather than general community spread .
That seems unlikely in Arizona , at least , where the positivity rate is approaching 20 percent .
Texas ’ s positivity rate is flat but yesterday they recorded an 8.3 percent rise in hospitalizations , bringing the total number of COVID patients statewide requiring hospital care to 2,518 , a new record .
A few days ago the top county official in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approaching the precipice … of a disaster ” and speculated that some lockdown measures would need to be reimplemented soon .
There ’ s even been talk of converting a football stadium into a field hospital to cope with patients in case local hospitals are overwhelmed .
Across the border in Oklahoma , officials are eyeing the growing problem in Texas and the potential disaster from Trump ’ s upcoming indoor rally in Tulsa and are getting nervous : “ It ’ s the perfect storm of potential over-the-top disease transmission , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Tulsa health department .
“ It ’ s a perfect storm that we can ’ t afford to have.
” … “ There ’ s just nothing good about this , and particularly in an enclosed arena , ” said Karen Keith , a Tulsa County commissioner who oversees the area where the rally is supposed to take place .
“ I don ’ t want people to lose a parent .
I don ’ t want them to lose a grandma .
I don ’ t want them to lose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ Like any other public health official , I ’ m a little angry , ” Mr. Dart said about the rally .
“ Frankly , I ’ m afraid for a lot of people .
It hurts my heart that we know this is a possibility and we ’ re doing it anyway .
It ’ s like seeing the train wreck coming.
” Ms. Keith and Mr. Dart said they were particularly concerned about visitors from nearby states , several of which have recent spikes more severe than Oklahoma ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus patients hospitalized on Friday were the most yet in the state .
The governor ’ s trying to get Trump to move the event to an outdoor stadium with the promise of an even bigger audience if he agrees .
I think the president ’ s counting on the media double standard towards the massive George Floyd protests to bail him out in case there ’ s an outbreak in Tulsa after his rally .
“ Why do Democrats blame me for new cases in Tulsa but they don ’ t blame @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
” he ’ ll say .
But you can anticipate the answer : The president has a special duty to lead by example .
He was warned by local officials that the rally would be dangerous and he did it anyway .
It ’ d be a political disaster .
He ’ d be right about the double standard , but the spectacle of the commander-in-chief going around the country having his fans seeding outbreaks because he simply can ’ t bear not to soak in their adulation would be a bad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that he ’ s never taken the threat from the pandemic seriously enough .
Hopefully he ’ ll agree to move it to an outdoor stadium — for the sake of his own electoral chances , if not the health of his fans — and infections will be minimal .
In lieu of an exit question , go look at two other sets of graphs that Trende has produced .
This one traces the epidemic in the central southeast and this one in the central southwest .
They look … different from the @ @ @ @

This is true (for now), but part of the reason it’s true is that in some places the first wave never ended. It did in New York. Go look at the graph of deaths from COVID-19 there and you’ll see a picture-postcard version of an epidemic curve being crushed. They had a ferocious first wave. It’s now over.
But New York is the exception, not the rule. You can see the trend in confirmed cases in all 50 states plus a few territories at a glance right here. In just 20 jurisdictions are the trendlines clearly downward. In 12 they’re flat, and in 21 they’re up recently. In the United States as a whole, the daily number of new confirmed cases hasn’t moved much for an entire month despite the huge merciful decline in the New York tri-state area. There’s a “background noise” level of daily infections now, around 20,000 or so, which we seem to have collectively decided is acceptable and/or unavoidable. So while it’s true that the spread isn’t getting worse nationally, it’s not getting better either. The first wave rolls on endlessly, at least in terms of confirmed cases.
The number of daily deaths has dropped quite a bit, though, which I mentioned in my post this morning and which Pence rightly mentions here. That’s genuine progress.
While talk of an increase in cases dominates cable news coverage, more than half of states are actually seeing cases decline or remain stable. Every state, territory and major metropolitan area, with the exception of three, have positive test rates under 10%. And in the six states that have reached more than 1,000 new cases a day, increased testing has allowed public health officials to identify most of the outbreaks in particular settings—prisons, nursing homes and meatpacking facilities—and contain them. Lost in the coverage is the fact that today less than 6% of Americans tested each week are found to have the virus. Cases have stabilized over the past two weeks, with the daily average case rate across the U.S. dropping to 20,000—down from 30,000 in April and 25,000 in May. And in the past five days, deaths are down to fewer than 750 a day, a dramatic decline from 2,500 a day a few weeks ago—and a far cry from the 5,000 a day that some were predicting… The media has tried to scare the American people every step of the way, and these grim predictions of a second wave are no different. The truth is, whatever the media says, our whole-of-America approach has been a success. We’ve slowed the spread, we’ve cared for the most vulnerable, we’ve saved lives, and we’ve created a solid foundation for whatever challenges we may face in the future. That’s a cause for celebration, not the media’s fear mongering.
Sean Trende cooked up this visual aid to show how much better things have gotten. If I were Trump, I’d have this blown up to poster size and displayed at the next White House presser:
The trend in confirmed cases has been flat the past few weeks but the other trends look good. Where are the trouble spots, then? The positivity rates tell us. There’s Arizona…
…and Arkansas…
…and Florida, which remains a success story of the pandemic but is seeing cases climb recently:
Hospitalizations in Florida remain lower than they were at the peak, but the state is now seeing its highest number of cases ever on a rolling seven-day basis. Per Bloomberg, they’ve gone from averaging fewer than 5,000 cases per week in May to more than 1,000 cases per day in 13 of the last 14 days.
I hope Pence is right that most of this growth is due to particular “hot spots” rather than general community spread. That seems unlikely in Arizona, at least, where the positivity rate is approaching 20 percent. Texas’s positivity rate is flat but yesterday they recorded an 8.3 percent rise in hospitalizations, bringing the total number of COVID patients statewide requiring hospital care to 2,518, a new record. A few days ago the top county official in Houston warned that “we may be approaching the precipice … of a disaster” and speculated that some lockdown measures would need to be reimplemented soon. There’s even been talk of converting a football stadium into a field hospital to cope with patients in case local hospitals are overwhelmed.
Across the border in Oklahoma, officials are eyeing the growing problem in Texas and the potential disaster from Trump’s upcoming indoor rally in Tulsa and are getting nervous:
“It’s the perfect storm of potential over-the-top disease transmission,” said Bruce Dart, the executive director of the Tulsa health department. “It’s a perfect storm that we can’t afford to have.”… “There’s just nothing good about this, and particularly in an enclosed arena,” said Karen Keith, a Tulsa County commissioner who oversees the area where the rally is supposed to take place. “I don’t want people to lose a parent. I don’t want them to lose a grandma. I don’t want them to lose a family member over this.”… “Like any other public health official, I’m a little angry,” Mr. Dart said about the rally. “Frankly, I’m afraid for a lot of people. It hurts my heart that we know this is a possibility and we’re doing it anyway. It’s like seeing the train wreck coming.” Ms. Keith and Mr. Dart said they were particularly concerned about visitors from nearby states, several of which have recent spikes more severe than Oklahoma’s, including Texas, where the 2,166 coronavirus patients hospitalized on Friday were the most yet in the state.
The governor’s trying to get Trump to move the event to an outdoor stadium with the promise of an even bigger audience if he agrees. I think the president’s counting on the media double standard towards the massive George Floyd protests to bail him out in case there’s an outbreak in Tulsa after his rally. “Why do Democrats blame me for new cases in Tulsa but they don’t blame the protesters for new cases everywhere else?” he’ll say. But you can anticipate the answer: The president has a special duty to lead by example. He was warned by local officials that the rally would be dangerous and he did it anyway. It’d be a political disaster. He’d be right about the double standard, but the spectacle of the commander-in-chief going around the country having his fans seeding outbreaks because he simply can’t bear not to soak in their adulation would be a bad look, especially given the Democratic narrative that he’s never taken the threat from the pandemic seriously enough. Hopefully he’ll agree to move it to an outdoor stadium — for the sake of his own electoral chances, if not the health of his fans — and infections will be minimal.
In lieu of an exit question, go look at two other sets of graphs that Trende has produced. This one traces the epidemic in the central southeast and this one in the central southwest. They look … different from the overall national trendlines.


hotair--2020-06-16--Las Vegas police officer shot during protest is paralyzed, suspect charged with attempted murder

A Las Vegas police officer named Shay Mikalonis was shot during a protest earlier this month is paralyzed from the neck down .
Over the weekend his family released a statement saying , “ Shay is on a ventilator and will remains so .
He is also paralyzed from the neck down and unable to speak.
” Here ’ s the full statement which was published on Twitter .
A 20-year-old man has been charged in the shooting .
Prosecutors have charged a 20-year-old man with deliberately shooting Mikalonis during the protest , one of hundreds being held across the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at June 5 court hearing said that police video shows Edgar Samaniego “ walking by , taking out a gun and firing … at officers.
” He is charged with attempted murder , battery and firearms charges and is being held in lieu of $ 1 million .
An appointed public defender , Scott Coffee , said after the hearing that Samaniego will plead not guilty .
Samaniego also is being held without bail on accusations that he violated the terms of release on separate misdemeanor driving under the influence and illegal drug @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report , Samaniego was not part of the protest group but was staying in a nearby hotel with a teenage girl ( 17-years-old ) .
He went for a walk and saw police arresting protesters across the street .
He pulled out a gun , fired one shot and then put the gun away and kept walking .
As you can see in this surveillance video clip , he looks almost casual before and after the shooting .
As for the motive here , that ’ s still not completely clear .
During @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ d been in his room the entire time .
Once police revealed that he ’ d been seen firing a shot on surveillance video and that it had been seen by an witness , he changed his story and claimed he ’ d fired a shot to “ scare ” protesters into leaving the area .
He also claimed he had “ bad eye sight ” and didn ’ t realize there were police making arrests standing exactly where he had turned and fired .
He then claimed he didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ used in the shooting .
Police executed a search warrant and found it under the mattress in his room .
Samaniego seems to be offering a series of modified limited hangouts about what he did that day , each time offering as little information as he can and hoping police can ’ t prove him wrong .
I don ’ t buy his story that he turned and fired randomly at protesters and neither does the prosecutor .
He is being charged with intentionally attempting to murder a police officer .
But for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his motive from his actions because he ’ s obviously not going to tell the truth .
Here ’ s a local news report on Samaniego ’ s bail hearing and the police report .

A Las Vegas police officer named Shay Mikalonis was shot during a protest earlier this month is paralyzed from the neck down. Over the weekend his family released a statement saying, “Shay is on a ventilator and will remains so. He is also paralyzed from the neck down and unable to speak.” Here’s the full statement which was published on Twitter.
Sharing with permission from Officer Mikalonis’s family. Since so many of our community is supporting Shay we wanted to provide an update as of June 12th, after the fundraiser held for him. He feels your prayers and positive thoughts. #PrayforShay pic.twitter.com/rpwaxMTCui — LVMPD Dispatch (@lvmpd_dispatch) June 13, 2020
A 20-year-old man has been charged in the shooting.
Prosecutors have charged a 20-year-old man with deliberately shooting Mikalonis during the protest, one of hundreds being held across the nation. A judge who reviewed evidence at June 5 court hearing said that police video shows Edgar Samaniego “walking by, taking out a gun and firing … at officers.” He is charged with attempted murder, battery and firearms charges and is being held in lieu of $1 million. An appointed public defender, Scott Coffee, said after the hearing that Samaniego will plead not guilty. Samaniego also is being held without bail on accusations that he violated the terms of release on separate misdemeanor driving under the influence and illegal drug possession charges.
According to the arrest report, Samaniego was not part of the protest group but was staying in a nearby hotel with a teenage girl (17-years-old). He went for a walk and saw police arresting protesters across the street. He pulled out a gun, fired one shot and then put the gun away and kept walking. As you can see in this surveillance video clip, he looks almost casual before and after the shooting.
As for the motive here, that’s still not completely clear. During police questioning, Samaniego initially claimed he’d been in his room the entire time. Once police revealed that he’d been seen firing a shot on surveillance video and that it had been seen by an witness, he changed his story and claimed he’d fired a shot to “scare” protesters into leaving the area. He also claimed he had “bad eye sight” and didn’t realize there were police making arrests standing exactly where he had turned and fired. He then claimed he didn’t know what had happened to the gun used in the shooting. Police executed a search warrant and found it under the mattress in his room.
Samaniego seems to be offering a series of modified limited hangouts about what he did that day, each time offering as little information as he can and hoping police can’t prove him wrong. I don’t buy his story that he turned and fired randomly at protesters and neither does the prosecutor. He is being charged with intentionally attempting to murder a police officer. But for now you’ll have to intuit his motive from his actions because he’s obviously not going to tell the truth.
Here’s a local news report on Samaniego’s bail hearing and the police report.


hotair--2020-06-16--As predicted: Thomas Jefferson statue toppled in Oregon

Well , we ’ ll all be waiting to hear the explanation for this one , I ’ m sure .
At Jefferson High School in Portland , Oregon last night , protesters gathered to begin a march in response to the death of George Floyd .
But first they decided to spray some graffiti on the school ’ s statue of its namesake and then just tear the statue down for good measure .
Roughly 1,000 demonstrators marched off away from the school , only to return a couple of hours later to mock the statue lying on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statue of Thomas Jefferson was reportedly toppled Sunday night outside a high school in Portland , Ore. , named for the former president .
The statue ’ s base was spray painted with the phrase “ slave owner , ” as well as George Floyd ’ s name before the statue was toppled , according to local reports .
Jefferson High School was reportedly the starting point for a march organized by Rose City Justice as part of the nationwide demonstrations over police brutality sparked by the killing of Floyd .
I wonder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the sniff test of CNN ’ s Jake Tapper , who recently admonished the President for standing up for “ dead racist losers , ” when referring to Confederate generals .
Jefferson is certainly dead and he owned slaves , so I suppose you can tag him with the racist description from a 21st-century perspective .
But he was hardly one of the “ losers.
” He wrote the Declaration of Independence and served as the country ’ s third president .
Of course , even while Jefferson owned hundreds of slaves over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pulpit to argue against the practice of slavery .
He was something of a walking contradiction in that regard .
But the point is , this all took place long before the Civil War .
The things he accomplished help build the road to a nation where all men and women can truly be equal , not just the white , landowning men who wrote the original rules .
But now Jefferson apparently doesn ’ t pass the test as someone worthy of commemorating .
Shall we just chisel his face off of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there , you might as well scratch Washington off also .
He owned slaves and only emancipated them after his death .
Is he a “ dead , racist loser ” too ?
The thugs who did this aren ’ t celebrating or commemorating anything .
They aren ’ t correcting any perceived wrongs .
Nearly all of the statues that have been torn down so far were public property .
These are criminal acts and the cowardly elected officials who turn a blind eye and act as if this is just some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to account by the voters .
The fact that the images of these types of attacks show up on the news every night is not some cause to be celebrated .
It ’ s a sign that we ’ re slipping closer and closer to Mad Max territory on a daily basis .
And the scales are only going to tip just so far before they start sliding back in the other direction .

Well, we’ll all be waiting to hear the explanation for this one, I’m sure. At Jefferson High School in Portland, Oregon last night, protesters gathered to begin a march in response to the death of George Floyd. But first they decided to spray some graffiti on the school’s statue of its namesake and then just tear the statue down for good measure. Roughly 1,000 demonstrators marched off away from the school, only to return a couple of hours later to mock the statue lying on the ground. (The Hill)
A statue of Thomas Jefferson was reportedly toppled Sunday night outside a high school in Portland, Ore., named for the former president. The statue’s base was spray painted with the phrase “slave owner,” as well as George Floyd’s name before the statue was toppled, according to local reports. Jefferson High School was reportedly the starting point for a march organized by Rose City Justice as part of the nationwide demonstrations over police brutality sparked by the killing of Floyd.
I wonder how this event will stand up under the sniff test of CNN’s Jake Tapper, who recently admonished the President for standing up for “dead racist losers,” when referring to Confederate generals. Jefferson is certainly dead and he owned slaves, so I suppose you can tag him with the racist description from a 21st-century perspective. But he was hardly one of the “losers.” He wrote the Declaration of Independence and served as the country’s third president.
Of course, even while Jefferson owned hundreds of slaves over his lifetime, he used his political pulpit to argue against the practice of slavery. He was something of a walking contradiction in that regard. But the point is, this all took place long before the Civil War. The things he accomplished help build the road to a nation where all men and women can truly be equal, not just the white, landowning men who wrote the original rules.
But now Jefferson apparently doesn’t pass the test as someone worthy of commemorating. Shall we just chisel his face off of Mount Rushmore? While you’re there, you might as well scratch Washington off also. He owned slaves and only emancipated them after his death. Is he a “dead, racist loser” too?
The thugs who did this aren’t celebrating or commemorating anything. They aren’t correcting any perceived wrongs. Nearly all of the statues that have been torn down so far were public property. These are criminal acts and the cowardly elected officials who turn a blind eye and act as if this is just some sort of free speech should be held to account by the voters. The fact that the images of these types of attacks show up on the news every night is not some cause to be celebrated. It’s a sign that we’re slipping closer and closer to Mad Max territory on a daily basis. And the scales are only going to tip just so far before they start sliding back in the other direction.


hotair--2020-06-16--Newest coronavirus threat: "Toilet plumes"

The virus has forced us to rethink so many assumptions of modern life already .
Now we have another : “ If it ’ s yellow , let it mellow .
If it ’ s brown , flush it down.
” What if flushing down the brown might kill you ?
Personally , I ’ d rather die than use an unflushed public toilet .
But here ’ s a PSA from scientists to feed our collective anxiety until the vaccine arrives : If the person who used the toilet before you happened to “ shed ” a little coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — particles of the virus may be floating around in the stall when you step in , suspended in aerosolized water droplets as high as three feet in the air after being ejected from the bowl by the act of flushing .
You ’ re walking into a potentially lethal dookie mist when you step in there , in other words , generated by what scientists politely call a “ toilet plume.
” Researchers say the virus ’ s presence in excrement and the gastrointestinal tract raises the prospect of transmission via toilets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or vomiting .
A study of air samples in two hospitals in Wuhan , China , found that although coronavirus aerosols in isolation wards and ventilated patient rooms was very low , “ it was higher in the toilet areas used by the patients.
” … Wang decided to use computer models to simulate toilet plumes while isolating at home , per Chinese government orders , and thinking about how a fluids researcher “ could contribute to the global fight against the virus.
” The resulting study was published Tuesday in the journal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flushing of both single-inlet toilets , which push water into the bowl from one port , and annular-inlet toilets , which pour water into the bowl from the rim ’ s surrounding edge with even greater energy , result in “ massive upward transport of virus.
” Particles can reach heights of more than three feet and float in the air for more than a minute , it found .
More details from the Times , which deserves congratulations for working the phrase “ fecal-oral route ” into its story about the findings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flushing mechanism showed that when water pours into the toilet and generates a vortex , it displaces air in the bowl .
These vortices move upward and the centrifugal force pushes out about 6,000 tiny droplets and even tinier aerosol particles .
Depending on the number of inlets in the toilet , flushing can force anywhere from 40 to 60 percent of the produced aerosols high above the seat .
“ It ’ s very alarming , ” said Ji-Xiang Wang , who studies fluid dynamics at Yangzhou University and was a co-author @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t well-ventilated either .
What ends up in the air in a small enclosed space is apt to hang around there .
How do we solve this dilemma ?
I ’ ll give you five possibilities , in order of increasing personal preference .
1 .
Lids .
We could just , you know , put lids on all public toilets and close them before we flush .
That ’ s what the study authors suggest .
2 .
“ Flush and run , ” as one expert described it to WaPo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on that , though .
What you ’ re worried about here is being infected by virus that was left in the toilet by the last person to use it before you .
When you flush , you ’ re only aerosolizing your own , uh , droppings , from which you have no reason to run .
Right ?
Or are we facing a scenario where particles from multiple previous users are still in the bowl after several flushes and could be kicked up into your face by your own flush ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ about it anymore .
Moving on .
3 .
Just wait 90 seconds or so to give the aerosolized particles time to “ settle ” before you step in .
The first excerpt quoted above says they can hang around in the air for “ more than a minute ” ; let ’ s study that further and figure out how long it takes for them to descend so that we can wait them out .
It ’ s not like you ’ re in a rush normally to enter a stall in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dropping the kids off at the pool.
” Give the air a minute to clear before stepping in .
Problem solved .
4 .
Depends .
There ’ s no reason why masks should be the only supplemental attire we don in the age of coronavirus .
5 .
Outdoor latrines .
No flushing , perfectly ventilated .
Plus , it ’ d build esprit de corps to cop a squat in the open air next to perfect strangers .
If we ’ re going to go all-out to defeat the virus , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Alternately , we could just keep doing what we ’ re doing , pretending that there is no virus and returning to normal with predictably stupid consequences .
Here ’ s quickie video from the LA Times of a nightclub in Arizona , where attendees do not give an F about whether they get infected or which older people in their social orbit might die when they pass the virus along .
Exit quotation from a young hedge-fund manager named Austin , perfectly in character : “ If you ’ re at risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re sick , you need to stay home… If you ’ re healthy and young , you need to be out here spending money to help the economy .
”

The virus has forced us to rethink so many assumptions of modern life already. Now we have another: “If it’s yellow, let it mellow. If it’s brown, flush it down.”
What if flushing down the brown might kill you?
Personally, I’d rather die than use an unflushed public toilet. But here’s a PSA from scientists to feed our collective anxiety until the vaccine arrives: If the person who used the toilet before you happened to “shed” a little coronavirus in their waste, then — theoretically — particles of the virus may be floating around in the stall when you step in, suspended in aerosolized water droplets as high as three feet in the air after being ejected from the bowl by the act of flushing.
You’re walking into a potentially lethal dookie mist when you step in there, in other words, generated by what scientists politely call a “toilet plume.”
Researchers say the virus’s presence in excrement and the gastrointestinal tract raises the prospect of transmission via toilets, because many covid-19 patients experience diarrhea or vomiting. A study of air samples in two hospitals in Wuhan, China, found that although coronavirus aerosols in isolation wards and ventilated patient rooms was very low, “it was higher in the toilet areas used by the patients.”… Wang decided to use computer models to simulate toilet plumes while isolating at home, per Chinese government orders, and thinking about how a fluids researcher “could contribute to the global fight against the virus.” The resulting study was published Tuesday in the journal Physics of Fluids. It found that flushing of both single-inlet toilets, which push water into the bowl from one port, and annular-inlet toilets, which pour water into the bowl from the rim’s surrounding edge with even greater energy, result in “massive upward transport of virus.” Particles can reach heights of more than three feet and float in the air for more than a minute, it found.
More details from the Times, which deserves congratulations for working the phrase “fecal-oral route” into its story about the findings:
A computer simulation of the toilet flushing mechanism showed that when water pours into the toilet and generates a vortex, it displaces air in the bowl. These vortices move upward and the centrifugal force pushes out about 6,000 tiny droplets and even tinier aerosol particles. Depending on the number of inlets in the toilet, flushing can force anywhere from 40 to 60 percent of the produced aerosols high above the seat. “It’s very alarming,” said Ji-Xiang Wang, who studies fluid dynamics at Yangzhou University and was a co-author of the study.
Bathrooms typically aren’t well-ventilated either. What ends up in the air in a small enclosed space is apt to hang around there.
How do we solve this dilemma? I’ll give you five possibilities, in order of increasing personal preference.
1. Lids. We could just, you know, put lids on all public toilets and close them before we flush. That’s what the study authors suggest.
2. “Flush and run,” as one expert described it to WaPo. I’m not entirely clear on that, though. What you’re worried about here is being infected by virus that was left in the toilet by the last person to use it before you. When you flush, you’re only aerosolizing your own, uh, droppings, from which you have no reason to run. Right? Or are we facing a scenario where particles from multiple previous users are still in the bowl after several flushes and could be kicked up into your face by your own flush?
I don’t want to think about it anymore. Moving on.
3. Just wait 90 seconds or so to give the aerosolized particles time to “settle” before you step in. The first excerpt quoted above says they can hang around in the air for “more than a minute”; let’s study that further and figure out how long it takes for them to descend so that we can wait them out. It’s not like you’re in a rush normally to enter a stall in which someone’s just finished “dropping the kids off at the pool.” Give the air a minute to clear before stepping in. Problem solved.
4. Depends. There’s no reason why masks should be the only supplemental attire we don in the age of coronavirus.
5. Outdoor latrines. No flushing, perfectly ventilated. Plus, it’d build esprit de corps to cop a squat in the open air next to perfect strangers. If we’re going to go all-out to defeat the virus, let’s really do it.
Alternately, we could just keep doing what we’re doing, pretending that there is no virus and returning to normal with predictably stupid consequences. Here’s quickie video from the LA Times of a nightclub in Arizona, where attendees do not give an F about whether they get infected or which older people in their social orbit might die when they pass the virus along. Exit quotation from a young hedge-fund manager named Austin, perfectly in character: “If you’re at risk or you’re old or you’re sick, you need to stay home… If you’re healthy and young, you need to be out here spending money to help the economy.”


hotair--2020-06-16--Today's hot topics on #TEMS: Retail bounce, defund trounce, SCOTUS renounce, GOP's urban pounce, and

Today's hot topics on #TEMS: Retail bounce, defund trounce, SCOTUS renounce, GOP's urban pounce, and more!

Today on The Ed Morrissey Show ( 4 pm ET ) , we have another great lineup for the news of the day !
The show will be streamed on Hot Air ’ s Facebook page and embedded here and on the show page for those who are not on Facebook .
Join us as we welcome : • Andrew Malcolm joins us for Tuesdays with Andrew !
The Prince of Twitter and I will discuss all of the hot political stories of the day .
Is it too early to count out Donald Trump ?
Not if this retail-sales @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the now-struggling # DefundthePolice movement might factor into the election , too .
Are conservatives “ seething ” over the SCOTUS decision on the Civil Rights Act , or is that more of a media narrative ?
• How do we fix problems in policing in urban America ?
We need to re-establish a middle class in them , Michael Petrilli argues , because these bastions of progressivism are the fastest-growing centers of inequality .
We ’ ll talk with the president of the Thomas B. Fordham Institute about why # DefundthePolice misses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is much more of a class issue than a race issue .
The Ed Morrissey Show and its dynamic chatroom can be seen on the permanent TEMS page .
Be sure to join us , and don ’ t forget to keep up with the debate on my Facebook page , too !
How can Republicans and conservatives keep the momentum going ?
Find out in GOING RED , published in April from Crown Forum !

Today on The Ed Morrissey Show (4 pm ET), we have another great lineup for the news of the day! The show will be streamed on Hot Air’s Facebook page and embedded here and on the show page for those who are not on Facebook.
Join us as we welcome:
Andrew Malcolm joins us for Tuesdays with Andrew! The Prince of Twitter and I will discuss all of the hot political stories of the day. Is it too early to count out Donald Trump? Not if this retail-sales bounce continues, plus the impact of the now-struggling #DefundthePolice movement might factor into the election, too. Are conservatives “seething” over the SCOTUS decision on the Civil Rights Act, or is that more of a media narrative?
How do we fix problems in policing in urban America? We need to re-establish a middle class in them, Michael Petrilli argues, because these bastions of progressivism are the fastest-growing centers of inequality. We’ll talk with the president of the Thomas B. Fordham Institute about why #DefundthePolice misses the mark on inequality and why this is much more of a class issue than a race issue.
The Ed Morrissey Show and its dynamic chatroom can be seen on the permanent TEMS page. Be sure to join us, and don’t forget to keep up with the debate on my Facebook page, too!
How can Republicans and conservatives keep the momentum going? Find out in GOING RED, published in April from Crown Forum!


hotair--2020-06-16--Second thoughts: Quieter Minneapolis balking at dismantling the police department?

Has the steam run out of # DefundthePolice at its epicenter ?
Now that Minneapolis has returned to a quieter state , significant concerns have emerged about the reactionary steps taken by the city council in the wake of the George Floyd homicide .
In fact , police calls have not just dropped after the riots , they have dropped to below-norm levels , the Star Tribune reports today : While demonstrations continue nationwide following the deaths of George Floyd and other black people at police hands , Minneapolis call data show the city is quieter following an initial surge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city reopens after months of pandemic-related shutdowns , police reports have fallen below typical levels .
… Police incidents and stops , along with confirmed fires , are now down for June compared to last year .
By contrast , calls to 311 , the nonemergency line , dramatically increased as neighborhoods assessed property damage , streets were cleaned up and residents surveyed the initial aftermath .
It ’ s unclear whether this decline in police incidents is related to residents making fewer calls to authorities , less activity being recorded , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ongoing pandemic where many events are still canceled and some businesses remain closed .
The Strib offers this chart comparing calls this year to 2019 levels .
As shown , the incident levels have dramatically decreased even year-on-year , including ( albeit less dramatically ) calls for the fire department : Perhaps the city ’ s residents have begun to effect their own version of police reform by simply not involving them in disputes .
This might also relate to the destruction of businesses and other operations in Minneapolis , as there is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whatever reason , however , it seems clear that the city has gotten significantly more quiet over the last couple of weeks and that the rhetorical smoke might be clearing as a result .
That clarity got a little more pointed in a meeting of the city ’ s downtown residents and business owners last night .
The association ’ s officers complained about the proposal for a charter change to replace the police department for an ambiguous notion of a “ new public safety model , ” calling it “ reckless.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not elimination , they argued : The meeting was sponsored by the Minneapolis Downtown Neighborhood Association , which covers the Downtown West and East neighborhoods .
Its website said it represents the interests of 150,000 people who live , work and own property in the area .
Board member Joe Tamburino , who frequently advocates for more downtown safety and police officers , said the City Council ’ s announcement of a possible charter change for a new public safety model was “ reckless ” and “ sent shock waves ” to residents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he knows something has to be changed with the Police Department , but hoped that neighborhoods could come together to discuss it .
“ I hear words like defund , abolish and dismantle , but there isn ’ t a common definition of what these mean , ” he said .
“ Before voters go to the polls to change the charter , we need to know what will happen .
Fear , anger and trauma can ’ t be the guides for a new public safety department.
” That ’ s a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and her allies , who tried to argue for a charter change first before working on the “ new public safety model.
” The current charter requires the city to field and fund a police department in a pretty specific fashion , and any attempt to dismantle it would require voters to approve an amendment repealing those provisions .
Bender essentially wants voters to approve a pig in a poke , so to speak , by granting the council authority to dismantle the police department without specifying what would replace it .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of blank-check approach .
This is a major rebuke to that approach .
The MDNA represents a significant political bloc within the 420,000-plus residents of Minneapolis , and they ’ re hardly the only people who find themselves nonplussed at the idea of dismantling the police department .
After watching what happened when police withdrew in the wake of Floyd ’ s homicide while in police custody — and perhaps in watching what ’ s happening in Seattle — that reticence is not just understandable , it ’ s entirely rational .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over its skis with its charter-change proposal .
Rep. Pete Stauber , the Republican from MN-08 who served 23 years in law enforcement before running for office , laid out a better path in today ’ s Strib .
Minneapolis needs reform in holding bad officers accountable , but what it truly needs is the kind of community policing that will require more officers on the street rather than fewer : Changes also must be made to help police chiefs fire bad police officers .
Currently , in Minnesota , police departments are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any termination to be appealed .
This process , called arbitration , is all too often the flip of a coin and allows officers who consciously and continuously make egregious mistakes to return to policing .
This system must be reformed .
During my 23 years on the police force , I became an expert in community policing .
When community policing practices are properly implemented , you do not end up policing your community , you end up policing with your community .
To build up trust between law enforcement and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that police have meaningful interactions with their community on a regular basis .
Therefore , I believe one of the most important steps going forward is requiring police departments to implement a set of community policing standards , using best practices that allow officers to be viewed as participants in the community rather than just responders to calls for service .
Any federal funding that is distributed must follow the implementation of community policing best practices .
As violent riots and civil unrest took place in the Twin Cities and across the nation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ citizens occurred without repercussion .
Despite what the Minneapolis City Council might think , law enforcement is necessary , and abolishing the Minneapolis Police Department is not the answer .
We need to inspire the best and the brightest to come forward to serve as police in our communities , but it will be impossible to do so if violence against law enforcement is tolerated and if we don ’ t recognize most of our police officers are of good character .
Indeed .
Perhaps Bender and her allies should spend less time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time listening to the vast majority of their constituents .
Better yet , perhaps those constituents should focus on electing council members and other officials who act responsibly and work toward accountability .
That is one reform that is long overdue in Minneapolis .

Has the steam run out of #DefundthePolice at its epicenter? Now that Minneapolis has returned to a quieter state, significant concerns have emerged about the reactionary steps taken by the city council in the wake of the George Floyd homicide. In fact, police calls have not just dropped after the riots, they have dropped to below-norm levels, the Star Tribune reports today:
While demonstrations continue nationwide following the deaths of George Floyd and other black people at police hands, Minneapolis call data show the city is quieter following an initial surge of unrest. And even as the city reopens after months of pandemic-related shutdowns, police reports have fallen below typical levels. … Police incidents and stops, along with confirmed fires, are now down for June compared to last year. By contrast, calls to 311, the nonemergency line, dramatically increased as neighborhoods assessed property damage, streets were cleaned up and residents surveyed the initial aftermath. It’s unclear whether this decline in police incidents is related to residents making fewer calls to authorities, less activity being recorded, or to relatively quieter summer days during an ongoing pandemic where many events are still canceled and some businesses remain closed.
The Strib offers this chart comparing calls this year to 2019 levels. As shown, the incident levels have dramatically decreased even year-on-year, including (albeit less dramatically) calls for the fire department:
Perhaps the city’s residents have begun to effect their own version of police reform by simply not involving them in disputes. This might also relate to the destruction of businesses and other operations in Minneapolis, as there is now less property to defend. For whatever reason, however, it seems clear that the city has gotten significantly more quiet over the last couple of weeks and that the rhetorical smoke might be clearing as a result.
That clarity got a little more pointed in a meeting of the city’s downtown residents and business owners last night. The association’s officers complained about the proposal for a charter change to replace the police department for an ambiguous notion of a “new public safety model,” calling it “reckless.” Policing needs reform in the city, not elimination, they argued:
The meeting was sponsored by the Minneapolis Downtown Neighborhood Association, which covers the Downtown West and East neighborhoods. Its website said it represents the interests of 150,000 people who live, work and own property in the area. Board member Joe Tamburino, who frequently advocates for more downtown safety and police officers, said the City Council’s announcement of a possible charter change for a new public safety model was “reckless” and “sent shock waves” to residents. Board vice chairman Kevin Frazell said he knows something has to be changed with the Police Department, but hoped that neighborhoods could come together to discuss it. “I hear words like defund, abolish and dismantle, but there isn’t a common definition of what these mean,” he said. “Before voters go to the polls to change the charter, we need to know what will happen. Fear, anger and trauma can’t be the guides for a new public safety department.”
That’s a direct slap at council president Lisa Bender and her allies, who tried to argue for a charter change first before working on the “new public safety model.” The current charter requires the city to field and fund a police department in a pretty specific fashion, and any attempt to dismantle it would require voters to approve an amendment repealing those provisions. Bender essentially wants voters to approve a pig in a poke, so to speak, by granting the council authority to dismantle the police department without specifying what would replace it. The MDNA has called shenanigans on that kind of blank-check approach.
This is a major rebuke to that approach. The MDNA represents a significant political bloc within the 420,000-plus residents of Minneapolis, and they’re hardly the only people who find themselves nonplussed at the idea of dismantling the police department. After watching what happened when police withdrew in the wake of Floyd’s homicide while in police custody — and perhaps in watching what’s happening in Seattle — that reticence is not just understandable, it’s entirely rational.
The city council seems to have gotten out over its skis with its charter-change proposal. Rep. Pete Stauber, the Republican from MN-08 who served 23 years in law enforcement before running for office, laid out a better path in today’s Strib. Minneapolis needs reform in holding bad officers accountable, but what it truly needs is the kind of community policing that will require more officers on the street rather than fewer:
Changes also must be made to help police chiefs fire bad police officers. Currently, in Minnesota, police departments are public employers and therefore state law allows any termination to be appealed. This process, called arbitration, is all too often the flip of a coin and allows officers who consciously and continuously make egregious mistakes to return to policing. This system must be reformed. During my 23 years on the police force, I became an expert in community policing. When community policing practices are properly implemented, you do not end up policing your community, you end up policing with your community. To build up trust between law enforcement and the communities they serve, it is crucial that police have meaningful interactions with their community on a regular basis. Therefore, I believe one of the most important steps going forward is requiring police departments to implement a set of community policing standards, using best practices that allow officers to be viewed as participants in the community rather than just responders to calls for service. Any federal funding that is distributed must follow the implementation of community policing best practices. As violent riots and civil unrest took place in the Twin Cities and across the nation, countless attacks on law enforcement and citizens occurred without repercussion. Despite what the Minneapolis City Council might think, law enforcement is necessary, and abolishing the Minneapolis Police Department is not the answer. We need to inspire the best and the brightest to come forward to serve as police in our communities, but it will be impossible to do so if violence against law enforcement is tolerated and if we don’t recognize most of our police officers are of good character.
Indeed. Perhaps Bender and her allies should spend less time pandering to the extremists, and more time listening to the vast majority of their constituents. Better yet, perhaps those constituents should focus on electing council members and other officials who act responsibly and work toward accountability. That is one reform that is long overdue in Minneapolis.


hotair--2020-06-16--Chinese and Indian soldiers killed after fighting with rocks and clubs at a remote border in the Him

Chinese and Indian soldiers killed after fighting with rocks and clubs at a remote border in the Himalayas (Update)

A remote border between China and India has become the scene of skirmishes in the past few weeks .
The BBC map above shows the area in dispute .
Soldiers on both sides have been forbidden from firing their weapons at one another but that hasn ’ t stopped them from fighting with their hands , with rocks and , some reports claim , with clubs embedded with nails .
Yesterday a confrontation between Chinese and Indian troops resulted in 20 deaths on the Indian side .
Twenty Indian Army troops were killed and dozens captured by Chinese soldiers late @ @ @ @ @ @ @ India-China border , Indian officials said , raising tensions between the world ’ s two most populous nations .
Preliminary reports on Tuesday indicated that the soldiers had not been shot , but had been killed in a brawl involving rocks and wooden clubs that was similar to fights that broke out last month along the border and seriously injured several soldiers on both sides .
It was the first time in decades that soldiers were killed in a skirmish along the border , which traverses freezing terrain high in the Himalayas , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immediately clear how India would respond to China , which has a much more powerful military .
An Indian military spokesman said that three Indian troops were killed during the fighting and 17 others later succumbed to injuries .
A senior Indian Army officer said that more than 20 Indian soldiers had also been captured and many might still be in Chinese custody .
Here are photos of the three Indian soldiers , including one officer , killed in the initial battle .
There are believed to have been a number of casualties @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China hasn ’ t revealed those numbers .
According to this site , “ Indian intercepts ” revealed China suffered 43 casualties , some with serious injuries and some killed .
All of this took place yesterday during what was termed a “ deescalation process ” after similar fights broke out last month : In May , an enormous brawl broke out between Chinese and Indian soldiers stationed at camps high in the Himalayas .
Chinese troops confronted Indian soldiers at several other remote border points in the mountains , some more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both armies have rushed in thousands of reinforcements .
Indian analysts say that China has beefed up its forces with dump trucks , excavators , troop carriers , artillery and armored vehicles and that China is now occupying Indian territory… The spark for the recent tensions seems to have been a road to a remote air force base that the Indian Army is building through mountain passes in the Galwan Valley , which military analysts say is fully within Indian territory .
Experts say that the Chinese are determined to frustrate India ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Chinese state media outlet the Global Times published an editorial today about the situation which doesn ’ t deny that Chinese soldiers became involved in the conflict while trying to prevent India from upgrading its infrastructure in the region : This has been the most serious clash between Chinese and Indian soldiers so far .
Indian media reported this is the first time since 1975 that soldiers died in border conflicts between the two countries .
India has been building extensive infrastructure facilities along the border , and forcibly built part of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Line of Actual Control regardless of bilateral divergences over the border disputes .
The two sides went into repeated physical clashes as Chinese soldiers tried to stop their Indian counterparts .
There is a video circulating that shows Chinese and Indian soldiers fighting in this same area but it appears that video is from a skirmish that happened in 2017 .
So far there doesn ’ t appear to be any video of yesterday ’ s conflict .
Here ’ s a report from the South China Morning Post on the incident @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the skirmish involved 900 troops on each side .
More than 900 troops on each side were involved in a physical clash , which started Monday night , lasted several hours—in three phases—and ended on early hours of Tuesday .
Most of the deaths have occurred as soldiers fell-off cliffs during a physical fight in the narrow Galwan valley into the river at an altitude of 15,000 feet .
Some died due to hypothermia and other due to injuries .
Stones , Steel poles , bamboo poles with nails embed on them , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attack the Indian troops .
The Peoples ’ Liberation Army ( PLA ) of China , have also suffered fatal casualties .
There is no number to their casualties .
Indian Army categorically said “ no bullets were fired in clash ” .
The casualty would have been manifold had bullets been fired

A remote border between China and India has become the scene of skirmishes in the past few weeks. The BBC map above shows the area in dispute. Soldiers on both sides have been forbidden from firing their weapons at one another but that hasn’t stopped them from fighting with their hands, with rocks and, some reports claim, with clubs embedded with nails. Yesterday a confrontation between Chinese and Indian troops resulted in 20 deaths on the Indian side.
Twenty Indian Army troops were killed and dozens captured by Chinese soldiers late Monday in a clash along the disputed India-China border, Indian officials said, raising tensions between the world’s two most populous nations. Preliminary reports on Tuesday indicated that the soldiers had not been shot, but had been killed in a brawl involving rocks and wooden clubs that was similar to fights that broke out last month along the border and seriously injured several soldiers on both sides. It was the first time in decades that soldiers were killed in a skirmish along the border, which traverses freezing terrain high in the Himalayas, military experts said. It was not immediately clear how India would respond to China, which has a much more powerful military. An Indian military spokesman said that three Indian troops were killed during the fighting and 17 others later succumbed to injuries. A senior Indian Army officer said that more than 20 Indian soldiers had also been captured and many might still be in Chinese custody.
Here are photos of the three Indian soldiers, including one officer, killed in the initial battle.
Deepest condolences to the near and dear of the brave soul's of India. Who martyred in violent face-off with China in Galwan valley in Ladakh. Colonel Bikkumalla Santosh Kumar Babu is from Suryapet, Telangana. He is the only son for his parents. He has two small children's. pic.twitter.com/epINUwZ2JB — Eswara Chary Poloju ( పోలోజు ఈశ్వరా చారి ) (@EPoloju) June 16, 2020
There are believed to have been a number of casualties on the Chinese side as well though China hasn’t revealed those numbers. According to this site, “Indian intercepts” revealed China suffered 43 casualties, some with serious injuries and some killed. All of this took place yesterday during what was termed a “deescalation process” after similar fights broke out last month:
In May, an enormous brawl broke out between Chinese and Indian soldiers stationed at camps high in the Himalayas. Beijing’s reaction was swift and forceful. Chinese troops confronted Indian soldiers at several other remote border points in the mountains, some more than 1,000 miles apart. Since then, both armies have rushed in thousands of reinforcements. Indian analysts say that China has beefed up its forces with dump trucks, excavators, troop carriers, artillery and armored vehicles and that China is now occupying Indian territory… The spark for the recent tensions seems to have been a road to a remote air force base that the Indian Army is building through mountain passes in the Galwan Valley, which military analysts say is fully within Indian territory. Experts say that the Chinese are determined to frustrate India’s efforts to upgrade its military positions.
Chinese state media outlet the Global Times published an editorial today about the situation which doesn’t deny that Chinese soldiers became involved in the conflict while trying to prevent India from upgrading its infrastructure in the region:
This has been the most serious clash between Chinese and Indian soldiers so far. Indian media reported this is the first time since 1975 that soldiers died in border conflicts between the two countries. India has been building extensive infrastructure facilities along the border, and forcibly built part of the facilities in the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control regardless of bilateral divergences over the border disputes. The two sides went into repeated physical clashes as Chinese soldiers tried to stop their Indian counterparts.
There is a video circulating that shows Chinese and Indian soldiers fighting in this same area but it appears that video is from a skirmish that happened in 2017. So far there doesn’t appear to be any video of yesterday’s conflict. Here’s a report from the South China Morning Post on the incident:
Update: This paper is reporting the skirmish involved 900 troops on each side.