hotair--2020-10-27--Ted Cruz: This last-second Hunter Biden attack won't move a single vote

It ’ s a heresy on the right to admit that Trump has run a bad campaign .
Not even a landslide defeat next week will completely wear away the taboo against saying so , as the urge in the aftermath to shift blame from Trump to others will be intense .
Few Republican pols will go on record about it .
Trump ’ s voters are their voters , after all , and their voters will remember if they refuse to join in the scapegoating effort .
But Trump has run a very bad campaign , both in terms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many , many GOPers will eagerly admit that to the media next week if the polls hold — anonymously , of course .
You should watch this clip of Cruz in that context , bearing in mind that he rarely risks getting crosswise with populists .
For him to utter a note of dissent on the Hunter Biden story at a moment when Trump and MAGA media are all-in on the claim that this is the biggest !
scandal !
ever !
( sorry , second-biggest ) is remarkable , and smoking-gun evidence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defeat .
It ’ s not the same as saying “ Trump ran a terrible campaign , ” but once the “ Trump ran a terrible campaign ” admissions begin , the foolish obsession with Hunter Biden identified here by Cruz will be Exhibit A in that case .
It ’ s already begun in parts of the righty commentariat .
“ Almost every Republican I ’ ve talked to concurs with Cruz , ” said National Journal reporter Matt Holt in response to the clip .
There may be a moment in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the high partisan fever caused by elections cools that righties will reflect on the “ Hunter ’ s laptop ” closing argument and realize that it was insane that Trump wasted time on it .
The insanity mainly has to do with opportunity costs , but it ’ s insane on the merits too .
Voters were supposed to turn against Joe Biden because he allegedly entertained doing business in China in 2017 — after he ’ d left office ?
At a moment when Trump himself had a bank account in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dollars in China *while* president ?
They were supposed to prefer Trump to Biden on what ’ s essentially character grounds ?
New from YouGov and Yahoo News : Trump spending the final days of the campaign trying to make the election a referendum on corruption would be like Biden spending the final days of the campaign trying to make it a referendum on early dementia .
The obvious strategy for Trump this year was to focus on policy , policy , policy .
Forget the personal attacks .
It ’ s been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t dislike Joe Biden personally to the degree they did Hillary Clinton .
In fact , possibly due to the personality contrast with Trump , Biden is actually viewed more favorably now in some polls than he was at the start of the race , an unusual trend given that candidates are usually torn down by their opponents over the course of a campaign .
Trump should have tried to minimize his character liabilities by refocusing voters on results instead .
Who delivered a stellar pre-pandemic economy ?
Who took out al-Baghdadi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Who ’ s negotiated a rapprochement between Israel and the Sunnis of the Middle East ?
Who appointed not one , not two , but three exemplary conservative justices ?
Who cares about tweets when you ’ ve got a record like that ?
That was Trump ’ s pitch in April , ripe for the taking .
Had he paired that with a sensible “ safety first ” approach to COVID at the same time , I think he ’ d be favored to win next week .
Instead he embraced what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a “ baffling ” strategy .
As an everybody else , I am also mystified by the case he is not making for his reelection .
Start with the economy .
At every turn he makes the over-the-top claim that he had built “ the greatest economy ” in our history before the pandemic and that he has been the best president for African Americans except , perhaps , for Lincoln .
If I were running his campaign , I would downplay such debatable claims and bear down on the data that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and less regulation has delivered gains to the very groups Democrats say they represent and always disappoint : the middle class and people of color… I would hammer home the point that the Obama/Biden administration ’ s leading-from-behind strategy that emphasized accommodation did little to counter the expansionist policies of China and Russia – remember Obama ’ s dismissal of Mitt Romney ’ s 2012 claim that Russia was our greatest geopolitical threat ?
Remember Russia ’ s annexation of Crimea in 2014 ?
Trump , by contrast , has actively sought to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while forcefully making the Reaganesque argument that they are bad actors on the world stage .
In that regard , I would observe that while Democrats claim Trump embraces authoritarian regimes , it was Obama/Biden that sought to prop up dictators in Venezuela and Cuba .
In every speech I would repeat the observation of Obama ’ s former Defense Secretary Robert Gates that Biden has “ been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.
” Trump does hit those notes periodically , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bears down on them .
You can tell what sort of attacks appeal to him by how enthusiastic he gets about them on the stump , just like you can always tell whom he regards with sincere contempt by the zealousness with which he denounces them .
( Ilhan Omar yes , the Proud Boys and alt-righters no . )
If you want him to bear down on a political message , you have to give him something he can make personal .
Biden has dementia .
His son is a crooked crackhead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shady business in China and Ukraine .
He craves sleaze , which worked out stupendously for him against a dubious figure like Hillary Clinton .
It ’ s not working out as well against a less dubious one in Biden .
I ’ m sure his advisors have made that point to him ad nauseam , hoping to steer him around to a more consistent winning message , but to no avail .
He ’ ll always be that guy whispering to the National Enquirer , planting hit pieces on his enemies .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ re true or not .
The point of gaslighting is to simply raise suspicion .
But if you ’ re going to gaslight , you don ’ t do it on a subject where you ’ re even more exposed than your enemy is .
I wonder if Cruz ’ s surprising willingness to criticize Trump ’ s strategy is a product of his own resentment about Trump ’ s dirty tactics .
No Republican was smeared by Trump in 2016 as aggressively as he was , with the pro-Trump Enquirer first accusing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ staffers and later insinuating that Cruz ’ s father might have been a co-conspirator in the Kennedy assassination .
It was outlandish , disgraceful nonsense , but it may have helped : The sort of people who went on to embrace QAnon a few years later may have absorbed stuff like that more credulously than the rest of the population .
He ’ d never , ever admit it lest he jeopardize his 2024 chances but I bet Cruz is enjoying watching a dubious eleventh-hour Trump hit on Biden fall flat .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ negotiate the politics of spinning the president ’ s defeat , if in fact we ’ re headed for one next week .
But until then , MAGA media must stay the course .
Yes , the Hunter Biden laptop story is huge , and yes , it ’ s an absolute gamechanger that portends a Trump landslide if only its details can be further corroborated .
Trump ’ s strategic instincts are unerring .
Tell ’ em , Newt .

It’s a heresy on the right to admit that Trump has run a bad campaign. Not even a landslide defeat next week will completely wear away the taboo against saying so, as the urge in the aftermath to shift blame from Trump to others will be intense. Few Republican pols will go on record about it. Trump’s voters are their voters, after all, and their voters will remember if they refuse to join in the scapegoating effort.
But Trump has run a very bad campaign, both in terms of spending and messaging. Many, many, many GOPers will eagerly admit that to the media next week if the polls hold — anonymously, of course. You should watch this clip of Cruz in that context, bearing in mind that he rarely risks getting crosswise with populists. For him to utter a note of dissent on the Hunter Biden story at a moment when Trump and MAGA media are all-in on the claim that this is the biggest! scandal! ever! (sorry, second-biggest) is remarkable, and smoking-gun evidence that Cruz thinks Trump is headed for defeat.
It’s not the same as saying “Trump ran a terrible campaign,” but once the “Trump ran a terrible campaign” admissions begin, the foolish obsession with Hunter Biden identified here by Cruz will be Exhibit A in that case. It’s already begun in parts of the righty commentariat.
In an interview with @jonathanvswan right after the last debate, @TedCruz weighed in on the Hunter Biden story: "I don't think it moves a single voter" pic.twitter.com/5ZvYy7ZkNt — Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) October 27, 2020
“Almost every Republican I’ve talked to concurs with Cruz,” said National Journal reporter Matt Holt in response to the clip. There may be a moment in December or January after the smoke clears and the high partisan fever caused by elections cools that righties will reflect on the “Hunter’s laptop” closing argument and realize that it was insane that Trump wasted time on it. The insanity mainly has to do with opportunity costs, but it’s insane on the merits too. Voters were supposed to turn against Joe Biden because he allegedly entertained doing business in China in 2017 — after he’d left office? At a moment when Trump himself had a bank account in China? And had made millions of dollars in China *while* president?
They were supposed to prefer Trump to Biden on what’s essentially character grounds?
New from YouGov and Yahoo News:
The problem for the president is that by an 11-point margin, independents also say Trump and his family are more “corrupt” (50 percent) than Biden and his family (39 percent) — a view shared by the majority of registered voters (53 percent to 39 percent)… Asked directly whether they think Joe Biden and his family are corrupt, 47 percent of registered voters say no. Just 40 percent say yes. Asked the same question about Trump and his family, 55 percent of registered voters say yes. Just 35 percent say no.
Trump spending the final days of the campaign trying to make the election a referendum on corruption would be like Biden spending the final days of the campaign trying to make it a referendum on early dementia.
The obvious strategy for Trump this year was to focus on policy, policy, policy. Forget the personal attacks. It’s been clear from the start that voters didn’t dislike Joe Biden personally to the degree they did Hillary Clinton. In fact, possibly due to the personality contrast with Trump, Biden is actually viewed more favorably now in some polls than he was at the start of the race, an unusual trend given that candidates are usually torn down by their opponents over the course of a campaign. Trump should have tried to minimize his character liabilities by refocusing voters on results instead. Who delivered a stellar pre-pandemic economy? Who took out al-Baghdadi and Soleimani while avoiding new wars? Who’s negotiated a rapprochement between Israel and the Sunnis of the Middle East? Who appointed not one, not two, but three exemplary conservative justices?
Who cares about tweets when you’ve got a record like that? That was Trump’s pitch in April, ripe for the taking. Had he paired that with a sensible “safety first” approach to COVID at the same time, I think he’d be favored to win next week. Instead he embraced what RCP’s Peder Zane aptly describes as a “baffling” strategy.
As an everybody else, I am also mystified by the case he is not making for his reelection. Start with the economy. At every turn he makes the over-the-top claim that he had built “the greatest economy” in our history before the pandemic and that he has been the best president for African Americans except, perhaps, for Lincoln. If I were running his campaign, I would downplay such debatable claims and bear down on the data that shows how his approach of lower taxes and less regulation has delivered gains to the very groups Democrats say they represent and always disappoint: the middle class and people of color… I would hammer home the point that the Obama/Biden administration’s leading-from-behind strategy that emphasized accommodation did little to counter the expansionist policies of China and Russia – remember Obama’s dismissal of Mitt Romney’s 2012 claim that Russia was our greatest geopolitical threat? Remember Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014? Trump, by contrast, has actively sought to limit both countries through tariffs and sanctions while forcefully making the Reaganesque argument that they are bad actors on the world stage. In that regard, I would observe that while Democrats claim Trump embraces authoritarian regimes, it was Obama/Biden that sought to prop up dictators in Venezuela and Cuba. In every speech I would repeat the observation of Obama’s former Defense Secretary Robert Gates that Biden has “been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”
Trump does hit those notes periodically, but as Zane says, he never really bears down on them. You can tell what sort of attacks appeal to him by how enthusiastic he gets about them on the stump, just like you can always tell whom he regards with sincere contempt by the zealousness with which he denounces them. (Ilhan Omar yes, the Proud Boys and alt-righters no.) If you want him to bear down on a political message, you have to give him something he can make personal. Biden has dementia. His son is a crooked crackhead. They’re wrapped up in shady business in China and Ukraine. He craves sleaze, which worked out stupendously for him against a dubious figure like Hillary Clinton. It’s not working out as well against a less dubious one in Biden.
I’m sure his advisors have made that point to him ad nauseam, hoping to steer him around to a more consistent winning message, but to no avail. He’ll always be that guy whispering to the National Enquirer, planting hit pieces on his enemies. Doesn’t matter if they’re true or not. The point of gaslighting is to simply raise suspicion.
But if you’re going to gaslight, you don’t do it on a subject where you’re even more exposed than your enemy is.
I wonder if Cruz’s surprising willingness to criticize Trump’s strategy is a product of his own resentment about Trump’s dirty tactics. No Republican was smeared by Trump in 2016 as aggressively as he was, with the pro-Trump Enquirer first accusing him of having had multiple affairs with staffers and later insinuating that Cruz’s father might have been a co-conspirator in the Kennedy assassination. It was outlandish, disgraceful nonsense, but it may have helped: The sort of people who went on to embrace QAnon a few years later may have absorbed stuff like that more credulously than the rest of the population. He’d never, ever admit it lest he jeopardize his 2024 chances but I bet Cruz is enjoying watching a dubious eleventh-hour Trump hit on Biden fall flat. It’ll be interesting to watch him negotiate the politics of spinning the president’s defeat, if in fact we’re headed for one next week.
But until then, MAGA media must stay the course. Yes, the Hunter Biden laptop story is huge, and yes, it’s an absolute gamechanger that portends a Trump landslide if only its details can be further corroborated. Trump’s strategic instincts are unerring. Tell ’em, Newt.


hotair--2020-10-27--NYT: Bloomberg dumps millions of dollars into Texas, Ohio for last-minute campaign ads

New York billionaire Michael Bloomberg promised to campaign against President Trump all the way to November whether he won the Democrat nomination or not .
He continues to make good on that promise .
Just hours after he dropped out of the Democrat primary due to his dismal performance , he was back in the race in a different role as a financier to buy the election for Democrats .
Bloomberg ponied up $ 100 million to win Florida for Joe Biden with campaign ad buys through his PAC in September .
Just a week out from the November election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have already turned in their ballots , Bloomberg ’ s PAC has committed millions of dollars for ad buys in Texas and Ohio .
Does Team Bloomberg see an opening or is it a last-minute panic setting in ?
Bloomberg ’ s Super PAC , Independence USA , has plans to air “ intensive ” ad campaigns in all television markets in both states .
It is hard to imagine that there is very much available ad time to buy at this point in the campaign , yet here we are .
Bloomberg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on this effort to swing Texas and Ohio for Biden .
The visit scheduled for Kamala on Friday in Texas is mentioned as proof of last-minute attention to Texas by the campaign .
Mr. Biden ’ s campaign has treated Ohio as a competitive battleground for some time , even though Mr. Trump carried it by a wide margin in 2016 , and more recently , the Democratic ticket has been putting some time and money into Texas .
Senator Kamala Harris of California , Mr. Biden ’ s running mate , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Bloomberg team conducted polling in a number of states over the weekend and came away convinced that Texas and Ohio represented its best targets — narrowly divided electoral prizes where the war for television airtime is not already cluttered with heavy advertising on either side .
The team presented Mr. Bloomberg with the numbers on Monday morning and he gave the go-ahead .
“ We believe that Florida will go down to the wire , and we were looking for additional opportunities to expand the map , ” Mr. Wolfson said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best opportunities to do that , in our view.
” Mr. Bloomberg is also planning to increase the size of his television ad buys in Florida over the next week , Mr. Wolfson said .
There is a combined total of 56 Electoral College votes at stake in Texas and Ohio .
The Electoral College votes from the largest red states are crucial for a Trump win in November .
It is true that both races are tighter than normally seen in Texas and Ohio but there is still the expectation that Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well as Ohio .
Frankly , it also looks like Trump will win Florida .
It looks like this is a last-ditch attempt by Team Bloomberg to make a difference .
I do wonder how accurate whatever their own polling shows , though .
If Team Bloomberg doesn ’ t think there is an overload on campaign ads in Texas , for example , there are a lot of us who would disagree with that .
I notice more Biden ads than Trump ads which also points to the fact that Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while Team Trump has trimmed its advertising budget .
Team Biden doesn ’ t really expect to win Texas but what they are doing by concentrating on Texas is continuing to lay the groundwork for future elections .
Texas Democrats have been ramping up their efforts to turn Texas back to a blue state since 2013 and each election cycle gets more intense .
Beto O ’ Rourke really swayed Democrats into believing he could lead them to victory and he did give Ted Cruz a real run for the senate seat in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the strong hatred of Trump is real in Texas .
Democrats are desperate to vote him out .
Since losing to Cruz , Beto has concentrated his efforts on statewide elections and flipping the Texas state legislature .
Bloomberg is also tossing millions into a statewide race in Texas – the Texas Railroad Commission ’ s Democrat candidate will reap the benefit of $ 2.6 million from his PAC for last-minute campaign ads .
Chrysta Castañeda is running against Republican Jim Wright who defeated the incumbent Republican in the primary race .
Castaneda @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the position in 25 years if she wins the race , which I am doubtful she will .
Texas Republicans have held all of the statewide offices since 1998 .
A quick explanation : The Texas Railroad Commission doesn ’ t regulate railroads , despite its name .
It is the state agency that regulates the oil and gas industry , gas utilities , pipeline safety , safety in the liquefied petroleum gas industry , and surface coal and uranium mining .
It ceased regulating railroads in 2005 .
It is the oldest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the oldest of its kind in the nation .
Castaneda is a climate change alarmist on the level that Bloomberg is and one campaign ad that plays in Houston is particularly noticeable for its claim about flaring .
In a 30 second ad , she states that “ oil companies flare enough natural gas to power the City of Houston.
” That ’ s malarkey , election-year hyperbole , and meant to scare voters by environmental extremists .
Flaring is a process used primarily in the production of crude oil in which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is burned off at the wellhead , rather than released into the atmosphere .
The Railroad Commission , however , has a limited role in flaring .
From its website : Castaneda is a Dallas engineer and lawyer .
Wright is an oil and gas businessman from Orange Grove .
The Railroad Commission is comprised of three members , all Republicans .
Democrats think they have a shot since the Republican incumbent was defeated in the primary race .
Team Biden has some clean-up work to do in Texas , though , after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transition ” the oil and gas industry if he becomes president .
Wright released a statement about Bloomberg ’ s last-minute entry into the race .
We ’ ll see if Bloomberg ’ s money in Texas and Ohio move the needle toward Biden and Castaneda .
All of his money couldn ’ t buy success for his own presidential ambitions .
We ’ ll know in seven days , give or take , depending on how long the counting of presidential race ballots takes .

New York billionaire Michael Bloomberg promised to campaign against President Trump all the way to November whether he won the Democrat nomination or not. He continues to make good on that promise. Just hours after he dropped out of the Democrat primary due to his dismal performance, he was back in the race in a different role as a financier to buy the election for Democrats.
Bloomberg ponied up $100 million to win Florida for Joe Biden with campaign ad buys through his PAC in September. Just a week out from the November election, as tens of millions of voters have already turned in their ballots, Bloomberg’s PAC has committed millions of dollars for ad buys in Texas and Ohio. Does Team Bloomberg see an opening or is it a last-minute panic setting in?
Bloomberg’s Super PAC, Independence USA, has plans to air “intensive” ad campaigns in all television markets in both states. It is hard to imagine that there is very much available ad time to buy at this point in the campaign, yet here we are. Bloomberg is expected to spend $15 million on this effort to swing Texas and Ohio for Biden. The visit scheduled for Kamala on Friday in Texas is mentioned as proof of last-minute attention to Texas by the campaign.
Mr. Biden’s campaign has treated Ohio as a competitive battleground for some time, even though Mr. Trump carried it by a wide margin in 2016, and more recently, the Democratic ticket has been putting some time and money into Texas. Senator Kamala Harris of California, Mr. Biden’s running mate, is planning to visit the state on Friday. The Bloomberg team conducted polling in a number of states over the weekend and came away convinced that Texas and Ohio represented its best targets — narrowly divided electoral prizes where the war for television airtime is not already cluttered with heavy advertising on either side. The team presented Mr. Bloomberg with the numbers on Monday morning and he gave the go-ahead. “We believe that Florida will go down to the wire, and we were looking for additional opportunities to expand the map,” Mr. Wolfson said. “Texas and Ohio present the best opportunities to do that, in our view.” Mr. Bloomberg is also planning to increase the size of his television ad buys in Florida over the next week, Mr. Wolfson said.
There is a combined total of 56 Electoral College votes at stake in Texas and Ohio. The Electoral College votes from the largest red states are crucial for a Trump win in November. It is true that both races are tighter than normally seen in Texas and Ohio but there is still the expectation that Trump will win the Lone Star state, as well as Ohio. Frankly, it also looks like Trump will win Florida. It looks like this is a last-ditch attempt by Team Bloomberg to make a difference. I do wonder how accurate whatever their own polling shows, though. If Team Bloomberg doesn’t think there is an overload on campaign ads in Texas, for example, there are a lot of us who would disagree with that. I notice more Biden ads than Trump ads which also points to the fact that Biden’s campaign is flush with money while Team Trump has trimmed its advertising budget.
Team Biden doesn’t really expect to win Texas but what they are doing by concentrating on Texas is continuing to lay the groundwork for future elections. Texas Democrats have been ramping up their efforts to turn Texas back to a blue state since 2013 and each election cycle gets more intense. Beto O’Rourke really swayed Democrats into believing he could lead them to victory and he did give Ted Cruz a real run for the senate seat in 2018. Enthusiasm has only intensified and the strong hatred of Trump is real in Texas. Democrats are desperate to vote him out. Since losing to Cruz, Beto has concentrated his efforts on statewide elections and flipping the Texas state legislature.
Bloomberg is also tossing millions into a statewide race in Texas – the Texas Railroad Commission’s Democrat candidate will reap the benefit of $2.6 million from his PAC for last-minute campaign ads. Chrysta Castañeda is running against Republican Jim Wright who defeated the incumbent Republican in the primary race. Castaneda will be the first Democrat to hold the position in 25 years if she wins the race, which I am doubtful she will. Texas Republicans have held all of the statewide offices since 1998.
A quick explanation: The Texas Railroad Commission doesn’t regulate railroads, despite its name. It is the state agency that regulates the oil and gas industry, gas utilities, pipeline safety, safety in the liquefied petroleum gas industry, and surface coal and uranium mining. It ceased regulating railroads in 2005. It is the oldest regulatory agency in the state and one of the oldest of its kind in the nation.
Castaneda is a climate change alarmist on the level that Bloomberg is and one campaign ad that plays in Houston is particularly noticeable for its claim about flaring. In a 30 second ad, she states that “oil companies flare enough natural gas to power the City of Houston.” That’s malarkey, election-year hyperbole, and meant to scare voters by environmental extremists. Flaring is a process used primarily in the production of crude oil in which excess natural gas produced with the oil is burned off at the wellhead, rather than released into the atmosphere. The Railroad Commission, however, has a limited role in flaring. From its website:
Rule 32 authorizes the flaring of gas while drilling a well and for up to 10 days after a well’s completion for operators to conduct well potential testing. Outside of that time period, the Commission requires operators to obtain an exception to Rule 32 authorizing flaring for specific situations and circumstances. Our trained staff works closely with operators to ensure compliance with Commission rules. RRC District Offices have inspectors available to witness operations, conduct inspections, provide information about permitting requirements, and ensure compliance with permits issued by the Commission.
Castaneda is a Dallas engineer and lawyer. Wright is an oil and gas businessman from Orange Grove. The Railroad Commission is comprised of three members, all Republicans. Democrats think they have a shot since the Republican incumbent was defeated in the primary race.
“I’m glad to support Chrysta in her campaign to be the next railroad commissioner because she has the vision and experience needed to build a safer, healthier and more environmentally prosperous future for the state of Texas,” Bloomberg said in a Monday release from Castañeda’s campaign.
Team Biden has some clean-up work to do in Texas, though, after his announcement that he’ll “transition” the oil and gas industry if he becomes president. Wright released a statement about Bloomberg’s last-minute entry into the race.
“Texas is not for sale to radical environmentalists and billionaires from New York and California who want to endanger our country’s economy and move energy production overseas,” Wright said in a statement Monday. “Make no mistake: We are in a war for the future of Texas, and the battleground is the Texas Railroad Commission. Texans know the value of having a strong oil and gas economy that helps provide millions of jobs for Texas citizens.”
We’ll see if Bloomberg’s money in Texas and Ohio move the needle toward Biden and Castaneda. All of his money couldn’t buy success for his own presidential ambitions. We’ll know in seven days, give or take, depending on how long the counting of presidential race ballots takes.


hotair--2020-10-27--Appeals court essentially cancels Uber and Lyft in California

California ’ s odious AB5 law continues to sow chaos in the state ’ s economy by pushing more and more government interference in the private sector .
One of the biggest areas of concern is the state legislature ’ s continued war on the gig economy in support of the labor unions that fund all of the Democrats ’ political campaigns .
Despite a referendum to repeal parts of the bill remaining under discussion , an appeals court ruling this week has essentially gutted the business models of ride-sharing companies like Uber and Lyft .
Absent some way to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will likely either shrink to a fraction of their current size or disappear from the state entirely , along with the tens of thousands of jobs they provide .
( National Review ) A California appeals court ruling caps a crusade against ride-sharing apps in the state .
Just days before Californians themselves were set to decide on the matter , a state appeals court has ruled that app-based ride-sharing companies Uber and Lyft must comply with state law AB5 and classify all of their drivers as employees rather than contractors .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will simply end operations in the state altogether , both having stated previously that their business model depends on the flexibility of using contractors .
The companies claim , and drivers often confirm , that the flexibility of contract work is key to their operations .
This effort has , as I mentioned above , been driven almost entirely by California and national labor unions .
They can ’ t forcibly enlist independent contractors into their unions and force them to pay dues , so they want the state to force Uber and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ employees .
This , of course , means tracking all of their hours “ worked ” ( even when they ’ re sitting in their cars waiting for a gig ) , paying them overtime , and at least the minimum wage plus “ expenses.
” Doing all of this would end up making your next Uber trip of five miles cost at least ten times what it does now in order to turn a profit , so they ’ re essentially putting the companies out of business .
That ’ s really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the Democrats who serve their commands from the beginning .
Nobody in the liberal enclave gave a hoot about the drivers and their needs , a majority of whom regularly say that they prefer the flexibility that comes with being an independent contractor .
This has all been yet another obvious ploy to support traditional taxi companies ( and their unions ) who can ’ t compete with Uber and Lyft ’ s better quality of service and competitive pricing .
The court ’ s explanation of its decision is laughable to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies had claimed that forcing them to comply would effectively destroy their business model .
The court disagreed , saying that Uber and Lift would “ suffer no grave or irreparable harm ” by being forced to comply , while pretty specifically stating precisely the harm being caused .
The panel said that there was just no reason to assume that forcing ride-sharing companies to operate as traditional employers would in any way hurt their business model , even as it conceded that that model was built around contractors .
“ We recognize @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from that traditionally associated with employment , particularly with regard to drivers ’ freedom to work as many or as few hours as they wish , when and where they choose , and their ability to work on multiple apps at the same time , ” it said .
When New York City pulled a similar , but not quite as destructive trick , Uber responded in a predictable fashion .
They locked most of their drivers out of the app except during peak usage hours and only allowed drivers who operated pretty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ riders .
That put most of the part-time drivers who were just looking for some extra income ( a majority of them , in other words ) out of work .
The same will happen in California .
Either that or , as they ’ ve already threatened , they ’ ll shut down the service entirely .
Then all of the drivers will be out of work , just as the Democrats intended from the beginning .

California’s odious AB5 law continues to sow chaos in the state’s economy by pushing more and more government interference in the private sector. One of the biggest areas of concern is the state legislature’s continued war on the gig economy in support of the labor unions that fund all of the Democrats’ political campaigns. Despite a referendum to repeal parts of the bill remaining under discussion, an appeals court ruling this week has essentially gutted the business models of ride-sharing companies like Uber and Lyft. Absent some way to walk back this scheme, those services will likely either shrink to a fraction of their current size or disappear from the state entirely, along with the tens of thousands of jobs they provide. (National Review)
A California appeals court ruling caps a crusade against ride-sharing apps in the state. Just days before Californians themselves were set to decide on the matter, a state appeals court has ruled that app-based ride-sharing companies Uber and Lyft must comply with state law AB5 and classify all of their drivers as employees rather than contractors. The ruling raises the possibility that the companies will simply end operations in the state altogether, both having stated previously that their business model depends on the flexibility of using contractors. The companies claim, and drivers often confirm, that the flexibility of contract work is key to their operations.
This effort has, as I mentioned above, been driven almost entirely by California and national labor unions. They can’t forcibly enlist independent contractors into their unions and force them to pay dues, so they want the state to force Uber and Lyft to classify their drivers as regular employees. This, of course, means tracking all of their hours “worked” (even when they’re sitting in their cars waiting for a gig), paying them overtime, and at least the minimum wage plus “expenses.” Doing all of this would end up making your next Uber trip of five miles cost at least ten times what it does now in order to turn a profit, so they’re essentially putting the companies out of business.
That’s really been the goal of the labor unions and the Democrats who serve their commands from the beginning. Nobody in the liberal enclave gave a hoot about the drivers and their needs, a majority of whom regularly say that they prefer the flexibility that comes with being an independent contractor. This has all been yet another obvious ploy to support traditional taxi companies (and their unions) who can’t compete with Uber and Lyft’s better quality of service and competitive pricing.
The court’s explanation of its decision is laughable to the point of being obscene. The companies had claimed that forcing them to comply would effectively destroy their business model. The court disagreed, saying that Uber and Lift would “suffer no grave or irreparable harm” by being forced to comply, while pretty specifically stating precisely the harm being caused.
The panel said that there was just no reason to assume that forcing ride-sharing companies to operate as traditional employers would in any way hurt their business model, even as it conceded that that model was built around contractors. “We recognize that defendants’ business models are different from that traditionally associated with employment, particularly with regard to drivers’ freedom to work as many or as few hours as they wish, when and where they choose, and their ability to work on multiple apps at the same time,” it said.
When New York City pulled a similar, but not quite as destructive trick, Uber responded in a predictable fashion. They locked most of their drivers out of the app except during peak usage hours and only allowed drivers who operated pretty much all of the time to take riders. That put most of the part-time drivers who were just looking for some extra income (a majority of them, in other words) out of work. The same will happen in California. Either that or, as they’ve already threatened, they’ll shut down the service entirely. Then all of the drivers will be out of work, just as the Democrats intended from the beginning.


hotair--2020-10-28--IBD/TIPP: Trump now ahead of where he was in 2016

The prognostication problems with the 2020 election continue apace .
To listen to the talking heads at CNN and NBC News , the only question left in terms of the presidential race is what color gown Jill Biden will wear to the inauguration .
So why do we keep seeing news items like this one from Investors Business Daily ?
The latest IBC-TIPP tracking poll landed yesterday and they ’ re showing a continuation of the reversal of the President ’ s recent slippage nationally .
Biden is still ahead , but his lead sits at a little more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the headlines we ’ ve been seeing , Donald Trump is actually closer to Joe Biden in this survey now than he was to Hillary Clinton one week before the 2016 election .
The IBD/TIPP survey was pretty accurate four years ago so take this news as you choose .
But as with most races , we ’ re looking more at the trends and directions than the hard numbers .
Biden is up 50.7 to 46.3 nationally .
That probably sounds like good news for Biden fans , but if we scroll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tracking poll , Biden was up by a full seven points , 44.7 to 51.7 .
Yes , there ’ s always a bit of jitter in daily tracking polls , but something does appear to be lifting Trump ’ s fortunes over the past week .
This doesn ’ t mean that Trump is in any danger of winning the popular vote , but as we saw four years ago , he doesn ’ t really need to .
And then there ’ s this alarming ( to Democrats ) headline from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ close ” ( definitions of that word in this context vary ) , Biden ’ s path to victory grows increasingly tenuous .
If the popular vote between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden is nearly a tie , Trump has an 88 percent chance of re-election , researchers of the Electoral College predict in a recent study .
The Electoral College system has a bias which is set to favor the Republican presidential candidate in 2020 again , but the discrepancy between the popular vote and electoral votes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ statistical outlier ” election of 2016 .
That study ’ s conclusion as of this week is that if Joe Biden carries the popular vote 52-48 , Donald Trump has an 88 % of winning the electoral college .
So if IBD/TIPP is anywhere near being in the ballpark of reality , this thing is far from over .
Personally , I ’ ll be keeping my eye on some of the same states that pretty much decided the election in 2016 .
Those would be Pennsylvania , Michigan , Ohio , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden can afford to lose one of those , depending on how some of the western states play out .
If he loses any two of them , the race is pretty much over and Trump gets four more years .
And with Philadelphia currently going up in flames with all of those suburban voters watching it happen in real-time , the Keystone State may have just become even more of a challenge for Uncle Joe .
Does this mean that Trump is in the clear ?
Not by a long shot .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the major cable news outlets this morning talking about how mail-in ballot requests and early voting numbers “ look very good ” for Joe Biden , I wouldn ’ t get too carried away .
2020 has been chock-full of surprises thus far and I ’ m not expecting the crazy train to pull up short in the next week .

The prognostication problems with the 2020 election continue apace. To listen to the talking heads at CNN and NBC News, the only question left in terms of the presidential race is what color gown Jill Biden will wear to the inauguration. So why do we keep seeing news items like this one from Investors Business Daily? The latest IBC-TIPP tracking poll landed yesterday and they’re showing a continuation of the reversal of the President’s recent slippage nationally. Biden is still ahead, but his lead sits at a little more than four points. Contrary to most of the headlines we’ve been seeing, Donald Trump is actually closer to Joe Biden in this survey now than he was to Hillary Clinton one week before the 2016 election.
The latest Biden Vs. Trump poll from IBD/TIPP suggests the race has become competitive with just one week to go. President Donald Trump’s support has surpassed his 2016 share of the vote in the IBD/TIPP presidential poll update, while Vice President Joe Biden appears to have lost ground among some key groups.
The IBD/TIPP survey was pretty accurate four years ago so take this news as you choose. But as with most races, we’re looking more at the trends and directions than the hard numbers. Biden is up 50.7 to 46.3 nationally. That probably sounds like good news for Biden fans, but if we scroll back only two days in the same tracking poll, Biden was up by a full seven points, 44.7 to 51.7. Yes, there’s always a bit of jitter in daily tracking polls, but something does appear to be lifting Trump’s fortunes over the past week.
This doesn’t mean that Trump is in any danger of winning the popular vote, but as we saw four years ago, he doesn’t really need to. And then there’s this alarming (to Democrats) headline from Newsweek. If the popular vote is “close” (definitions of that word in this context vary), Biden’s path to victory grows increasingly tenuous.
If the popular vote between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden is nearly a tie, Trump has an 88 percent chance of re-election, researchers of the Electoral College predict in a recent study. The Electoral College system has a bias which is set to favor the Republican presidential candidate in 2020 again, but the discrepancy between the popular vote and electoral votes will not be as wide as the “statistical outlier” election of 2016.
That study’s conclusion as of this week is that if Joe Biden carries the popular vote 52-48, Donald Trump has an 88% of winning the electoral college. So if IBD/TIPP is anywhere near being in the ballpark of reality, this thing is far from over.
Personally, I’ll be keeping my eye on some of the same states that pretty much decided the election in 2016. Those would be Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and, of course, Florida. Biden can afford to lose one of those, depending on how some of the western states play out. If he loses any two of them, the race is pretty much over and Trump gets four more years. And with Philadelphia currently going up in flames with all of those suburban voters watching it happen in real-time, the Keystone State may have just become even more of a challenge for Uncle Joe.
Does this mean that Trump is in the clear? Not by a long shot. But if you’re listening to the major cable news outlets this morning talking about how mail-in ballot requests and early voting numbers “look very good” for Joe Biden, I wouldn’t get too carried away. 2020 has been chock-full of surprises thus far and I’m not expecting the crazy train to pull up short in the next week.


hotair--2020-10-28--VIP Gold Chat: Home stretch, Louisville grand jury talks, SCOTUS and 2A, and you!

Get ready for another tremendous live , interactive VIP Gold chat with Bearing Arms ’ Cam Edwards and HotAir ’ s Ed Morrissey !
The duo will take VIP Gold members ’ questions and comments and give an in-depth analysis of the top topics of the day .
The live podcast starts at 1:30 pm ET .
If you are not a VIP Gold member , join below so you can watch today and participate in future chats !
Use LOYALTY for 25 % off !
While Cam brings his A-game on 2nd Amendment and liberty issues and makes sure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Ed has kept pace with developments abroad , at home and at the local level as well .
We ’ ll plenty to discuss and lots of time to take your questions .
The hot topics so far are : • Latest polling and trends in the 2020 election • Will a renewed Supreme Court take more # 2A cases ?
• What “ reforms ” of SCOTUS will Democrats push if they take control of Washington ?
• What are the grand jurors in the Breonna Taylor case saying ?
With @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Gold members can get the latest as it happens from Cam and Ed .

Get ready for another tremendous live, interactive VIP Gold chat with Bearing Arms’ Cam Edwards and HotAir’s Ed Morrissey! The duo will take VIP Gold members’ questions and comments and give an in-depth analysis of the top topics of the day. The live podcast starts at 1:30 pm ET.
If you are not a VIP Gold member, join below so you can watch today and participate in future chats! Use LOYALTY for 25% off!
While Cam brings his A-game on 2nd Amendment and liberty issues and makes sure to keep it real along the way, Ed has kept pace with developments abroad, at home and at the local level as well.
We’ll plenty to discuss and lots of time to take your questions. The hot topics so far are:
Latest polling and trends in the 2020 election
Will a renewed Supreme Court take more #2A cases?
What “reforms” of SCOTUS will Democrats push if they take control of Washington?
What are the grand jurors in the Breonna Taylor case saying?
COVID-19 developments, and economic meltdown
With all the fast-moving developments, our VIP Gold members can get the latest as it happens from Cam and Ed.


hotair--2020-10-27--Preparations are underway for post-Election Day violence

State officials across the country are preparing for the worst in case violence breaks out on or after Election Day .
There is a role that the National Guard can play , as well as local police .
Different states and localities have laws that must be taken into consideration as preparations are being made .
For instance , the National Guard doesn ’ t want to get involved in providing security at polling places .
That role is filled by poll workers and local police departments .
The National Guard can provide a role in cybersecurity , assisting state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and others from interfering with the vote .
However , in some states , they will assist poll workers , dressed in civilian clothes .
They will help set up tables and hand out ballots .
There is a nationwide shortage of election workers due to the coronavirus pandemic .
Workers at polling places tend to be older and older people fall into the high-risk category for the virus .
Some states will add security guards to polling places and for protection of ballot drop-off boxes .
Some jurisdictions do not allow uniformed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it can be interpreted as voter intimidation by voters .
They have to wait to be called by the election workers before they can come in .
Given this year ’ s tensions , and the fact that the police themselves are a major issue in the election , the question of their presence at polling places has become a partisan flashpoint in some places .
Democrats in Miami complained about a uniformed police officer wearing a Trump face mask at an early-voting location , and he faces potential discipline by his department @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to restrict the presence of officers at polling places , a debate that quickly acquired partisan overtones .
A similar dispute broke out in North Carolina , where the Board of Elections issued a memo reminding uniformed police officers to stay away from polling places , and state Republicans objected .
Republican State Sen. Paul Newton says the Board , which is controlled by Democrats , “ overstepped ” its authority , and that it can ’ t tell police what to do .
In Michigan , there is a lawsuit pending over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ directive saying visible guns would not be allowed at the polls or other election-related offices this year .
Generally speaking , the state ’ s open-carry law is a permissive one but state officials are concerned this year over public safety at the polls .
Police authorities doubt that they can enforce the Secretary ’ s directive and point to the lawsuit that has been filed against it .
Police departments in cities that have experienced street violence and riots in recent months are preparing to have additional officers on duty on Election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ David Brown is prepared for “ agitators ” that embed themselves in street protests .
You know , those “ peaceful protests ” we keep hearing about that turn violent and destructive .
In Texas , an announcement was made on Monday by the state National Guard that Governor Abbott is sending 1,000 troops to the five largest cities to handle any unrest on Election Day or afterward .
These cities are Dallas , Houston , Fort Worth , Austin , and San Antonio .
Like clockwork , Texas Democrats began criticizing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Texas National Guard commander ’ s chief of staff said that the troops will be used to “ deter any civil disturbance at sites in various cities within Texas ” , not to watch polling locations .
The governor has not requested that the Texas National Guard protect polling stations .
Other military officials confirm that there are no plans to provide support at polling locations .
In a statement , Adjutant General Maj. Gen. Tracy Norris said that the Texas Military Department “ was activated to provide additional support to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 2020.
” “ Texas Service Members continue to support DPS in this capacity , guarding historical landmarks such as the Alamo and the State Capitol , ” Norris explained .
“ To be clear , there has been no request nor any plan to provide any type of support at any polling location in Texas.
” The San Antonio Express-News also reported that Norris had been asked to draft contingency plans in case of trouble .
Wisconsin and Kentucky have deployed National Guard troops to help out by setting up tables and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about the potential for violence , especially in the aftermath of the election .
The sales of guns and ammunition are at record-setting levels .
People are stocking up on supplies like toilet paper and food for their pantry .
Just in case there is chaos , Americans are preparing if it becomes necessary to hunker down after the election .
Who can blame anyone for preparing for the worst after the violence seen during the Summer of Love and continuing now in major cities across the country ?
And , with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe Biden and other Democrats , Americans are feeling the stress coming from uncertainty .
I think Election Day will be ok but I , too , worry about the days following the election .
We can hope for calm while we prepare for the worst-case scenario .

State officials across the country are preparing for the worst in case violence breaks out on or after Election Day. There is a role that the National Guard can play, as well as local police. Different states and localities have laws that must be taken into consideration as preparations are being made.
For instance, the National Guard doesn’t want to get involved in providing security at polling places. That role is filled by poll workers and local police departments. The National Guard can provide a role in cybersecurity, assisting state officials by trying to prevent foreign governments and others from interfering with the vote. However, in some states, they will assist poll workers, dressed in civilian clothes. They will help set up tables and hand out ballots. There is a nationwide shortage of election workers due to the coronavirus pandemic. Workers at polling places tend to be older and older people fall into the high-risk category for the virus.
Some states will add security guards to polling places and for protection of ballot drop-off boxes. Some jurisdictions do not allow uniformed officers as security, though, as it can be interpreted as voter intimidation by voters. They have to wait to be called by the election workers before they can come in.
Given this year’s tensions, and the fact that the police themselves are a major issue in the election, the question of their presence at polling places has become a partisan flashpoint in some places. Democrats in Miami complained about a uniformed police officer wearing a Trump face mask at an early-voting location, and he faces potential discipline by his department. New Jersey is considering last-minute legislation to restrict the presence of officers at polling places, a debate that quickly acquired partisan overtones. A similar dispute broke out in North Carolina, where the Board of Elections issued a memo reminding uniformed police officers to stay away from polling places, and state Republicans objected. Republican State Sen. Paul Newton says the Board, which is controlled by Democrats, “overstepped” its authority, and that it can’t tell police what to do.
In Michigan, there is a lawsuit pending over Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson’s directive saying visible guns would not be allowed at the polls or other election-related offices this year. Generally speaking, the state’s open-carry law is a permissive one but state officials are concerned this year over public safety at the polls. Police authorities doubt that they can enforce the Secretary’s directive and point to the lawsuit that has been filed against it.
Police departments in cities that have experienced street violence and riots in recent months are preparing to have additional officers on duty on Election Day. In Chicago, Police Superintendent David Brown is prepared for “agitators” that embed themselves in street protests. You know, those “peaceful protests” we keep hearing about that turn violent and destructive.
“From those lessons learned over the summer, we are planning for that to be a feature of peaceful protests,” on Election Day, Brown said at a press conference last week. “We have operations in place to ensure that they don’t destroy property, that they don’t cause further violence and that they are held accountable,” he says.
In Texas, an announcement was made on Monday by the state National Guard that Governor Abbott is sending 1,000 troops to the five largest cities to handle any unrest on Election Day or afterward. These cities are Dallas, Houston, Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio. Like clockwork, Texas Democrats began criticizing the move as voter suppression and intimidation. The Texas National Guard commander’s chief of staff said that the troops will be used to “deter any civil disturbance at sites in various cities within Texas”, not to watch polling locations. The governor has not requested that the Texas National Guard protect polling stations. Other military officials confirm that there are no plans to provide support at polling locations.
In a statement, Adjutant General Maj. Gen. Tracy Norris said that the Texas Military Department “was activated to provide additional support to the Department of Public Safety in the summer of 2020.” “Texas Service Members continue to support DPS in this capacity, guarding historical landmarks such as the Alamo and the State Capitol,” Norris explained. “To be clear, there has been no request nor any plan to provide any type of support at any polling location in Texas.” The San Antonio Express-News also reported that Norris had been asked to draft contingency plans in case of trouble.
Wisconsin and Kentucky have deployed National Guard troops to help out by setting up tables and hand out ballots.
Americans are concerned about the potential for violence, especially in the aftermath of the election. The sales of guns and ammunition are at record-setting levels. People are stocking up on supplies like toilet paper and food for their pantry. Just in case there is chaos, Americans are preparing if it becomes necessary to hunker down after the election. Who can blame anyone for preparing for the worst after the violence seen during the Summer of Love and continuing now in major cities across the country? And, with the threats of another national lockdown coming from Joe Biden and other Democrats, Americans are feeling the stress coming from uncertainty. I think Election Day will be ok but I, too, worry about the days following the election. We can hope for calm while we prepare for the worst-case scenario.


hotair--2020-10-28--WaPo/ABC poll: Biden leads in Wisconsin by ... *seventeen* points?

Come on , man .
There are a number of outcomes that might be plausible from next week ’ s election .
None of them include Joe Biden winning Wisconsin by seventeen points , two more than Barack Obama ’ s margin in 2008 .
Yet that ’ s what the Washington Post and ABC News finds as its polling finale in the state , along with a somewhat more reasonable seven-point Biden lead in Michigan : Former vice president Joe Biden continues to outpace President Trump in two crucial Midwest battlegrounds , currently holding a slight lead over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more substantial advantage in Wisconsin , according to a pair of Washington Post-ABC News polls .
The surveys show Biden narrowly ahead of Trump among likely voters in Michigan by 51 percent to 44 percent , with Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen at 3 percent .
In Wisconsin , likely voters favor Biden by 57 percent to 40 percent , with Jorgensen at 2 percent .
Among registered voters , Biden ’ s edge in Michigan is five points , while he leads by 17 points in Wisconsin .
Could Biden have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Wisconsin ?
Sure ; unlike four years ago , Democrats and their nominee aren ’ t ignoring the state .
Neither is Trump , whose ground game has always had the state as one of its top targets .
The latest increase in COVID-19 cases certainly makes Trump a bit more vulnerable , too , although some of the anger for that might be directed at Democratic governor Tony Evers , too .
Anyone who has watched politics in Wisconsin knows , however , that there isn ’ t room for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Thanks to the Act 10 fight and the recall effort to remove Scott Walker , the partisan political landscape in Wisconsin has become far too polarized to get 57 % for one candidate and 40 % for another .
The trenches have been dug for a decade there , and not many people cross through no-man ’ s-land .
Democrats can win in Wisconsin — and they probably would have in 2016 if Hillary Clinton hadn ’ t taken the state for granted — but it ’ s not a 17-point-win state for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s probably not even a seven-point-win state in either direction .
A look at the RealClearPolitics aggregation shows just how ridiculous this result is .
None of the polling has ever shown Trump ahead , although a recent Susquehanna poll ( with only 500 likely voters ) put the race at a 45/45 tie .
Even Trafalgar has it as Biden +2 at 48/46 , still a virtual tie .
This WaPo/ABC result of Biden +17 is almost twice the gap as the most Biden-friendly poll this month , however , with almost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ digits .
Give the WaPo/ABC and their pollsters credit for huevos grandes , though .
This is one hell of a bet on credibility they ’ re putting down in the last week of an election .
If they come close , they ’ ll look like geniuses .
It ’ s much more likely they end up with the huevos all over their faces .

Come on, man. There are a number of outcomes that might be plausible from next week’s election. None of them include Joe Biden winning Wisconsin by seventeen points, two more than Barack Obama’s margin in 2008. Yet that’s what the Washington Post and ABC News finds as its polling finale in the state, along with a somewhat more reasonable seven-point Biden lead in Michigan:
Former vice president Joe Biden continues to outpace President Trump in two crucial Midwest battlegrounds, currently holding a slight lead over the president in Michigan while showing a much more substantial advantage in Wisconsin, according to a pair of Washington Post-ABC News polls. The surveys show Biden narrowly ahead of Trump among likely voters in Michigan by 51 percent to 44 percent, with Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen at 3 percent. In Wisconsin, likely voters favor Biden by 57 percent to 40 percent, with Jorgensen at 2 percent. Among registered voters, Biden’s edge in Michigan is five points, while he leads by 17 points in Wisconsin.
Could Biden have a lead, even a substantial lead, in Wisconsin? Sure; unlike four years ago, Democrats and their nominee aren’t ignoring the state. Neither is Trump, whose ground game has always had the state as one of its top targets. The latest increase in COVID-19 cases certainly makes Trump a bit more vulnerable, too, although some of the anger for that might be directed at Democratic governor Tony Evers, too.
Anyone who has watched politics in Wisconsin knows, however, that there isn’t room for a seventeen point lead in either direction. Thanks to the Act 10 fight and the recall effort to remove Scott Walker, the partisan political landscape in Wisconsin has become far too polarized to get 57% for one candidate and 40% for another. The trenches have been dug for a decade there, and not many people cross through no-man’s-land. Democrats can win in Wisconsin — and they probably would have in 2016 if Hillary Clinton hadn’t taken the state for granted — but it’s not a 17-point-win state for either Democrats or Republicans. It’s probably not even a seven-point-win state in either direction.
A look at the RealClearPolitics aggregation shows just how ridiculous this result is. None of the polling has ever shown Trump ahead, although a recent Susquehanna poll (with only 500 likely voters) put the race at a 45/45 tie. Even Trafalgar has it as Biden +2 at 48/46, still a virtual tie. This WaPo/ABC result of Biden +17 is almost twice the gap as the most Biden-friendly poll this month, however, with almost every pollster putting this race in single digits.
Give the WaPo/ABC and their pollsters credit for huevos grandes, though. This is one hell of a bet on credibility they’re putting down in the last week of an election. If they come close, they’ll look like geniuses. It’s much more likely they end up with the huevos all over their faces.


hotair--2020-10-28--Biden 50, Trump 46: It's getting real in Georgia

I swear to you , in spite of all the gloomy polls we ’ ve posted over the past two months , I ’ m open to the possibility that Trump wins .
I think he ’ ll win Florida .
He ’ s not very far behind in Pennsylvania .
One would expect Ohio and Iowa and Texas , all of which he won easily four years ago , to come home to him .
And then it ’ s a simple matter of him overperforming by just two or three points in Arizona and North Carolina .
Last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s prediction that Trump would win reelection easily .
On Monday I posted USC ’ s analysis indicating that Trump will again win the electoral college based on the data they ’ ve gathered from people about how their social circles are leaning .
This morning I posted Jon Ralston ’ s analysis of Nevada suggesting that Democrats might not be hitting their early-voting targets .
( Although Ralston sounds a little more bullish this afternoon . )
But Georgia is a problem .
A much bigger problem than Texas too , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of electoral votes .
Texas has been ( somewhat ) more reliably red in recent years than Georgia has and its large Latino population is apt to be a few points more favorable to Trump this year than it was in 2016 .
And even if the unthinkable happens and Texas flips , it won ’ t be a tipping-point state .
If Biden wins Texas , it ’ ll be his 380th electoral vote , not his 270th .
Georgia might be different .
I ’ ve written about this in other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ + Wisconsin + Georgia combo is enough to hand Biden the presidency , presuming that he holds onto all Hillary 2016 states .
And given the polling lately , there ’ s no strong reason to think Biden has less of a chance there than he does in other nearby toss-up states like North Carolina and Florida .
All three states are basically even .
Monmouth has a new poll out this afternoon confirming that the state really is in play : Biden 50 , Trump 46 , assuming high turnout .
( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump 48 . )
And note that Monmouth hasn ’ t been bullish on Biden ’ s chances in the state this year .
They had Trump up two points in the last poll there , published a month ago .
Trump maintains an advantage among Georgia voters aged 65 and older – leading Biden by 58 % to 42 % now , versus 61 % to 36 % in September .
This is noteworthy because Biden has led among senior voters both nationally and in the other swing states Monmouth has polled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden is able to offset his deficit in Georgia with support from younger voters , who make up a relatively larger share of the electorate here than in other swing states .
He currently holds a 54 % to 40 % lead over Trump among voters under 50 years old , up from his 47 % to 42 % lead with this group last month .
Biden maintains an advantage in 14 swing counties* where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election .
He leads Trump among registered voters in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % , similar to his 54 % to 34 % margin in September .
He is also holding steady in counties that went solidly for Hillary Clinton in 2016 ( 71 % to 27 % now , versus 70 % to 24 % las month ) .
Trump has a strong 64 % to 33 % lead in the counties he won handily four years ago , but this is not quite as wide as last month ( 71 % to 25 % ) .
Asked how likely or not they are to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said they ’ re not likely at all to vote for Biden but 51 percent said they ’ re not likely at all to vote for Trump .
The good news for Trump is that , with one exception , no poll of Georgia has showed Biden leading by as many as four points this fall , which makes this a bit of an outlier .
The bad news for him is that the GOP ’ s own polling is reportedly showing a Biden lead now as well : “ A pair of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indicate that Mr. Biden has established a small advantage , according to Republican strategists familiar with the data , speaking on the condition of anonymity .
That ’ s in large part because of his wide lead in the metropolitan counties around Atlanta that Hillary Clinton narrowly carried in 2016.
” The site Inside Elections moved its forecast for Georgia today from toss-up to … leans Democratic : You can read IE ’ s write-up here of why Georgia really might go blue this year .
It ’ s well-suited to Biden ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a growing number of urban voters , and a blue trend over the last few cycles among college-educated whites .
Trump won that group in GA by 41 points four years ago , helping him to a narrow-ish five-point win statewide .
If Biden cuts deeply into the president ’ s share of white college grads this time , which has been the case in national polling for many months , all bets are off .
In trying to assess the big picture of who ’ s ahead not just in Georgia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two things to think about .
One comes from Dave Wasserman , who ’ s looking at polls of congressional districts all over the map .
Here ’ s what he ’ s seeing in Pennsylvania , a must-win for the president : Those are all polls of different districts , all pointing the same way .
How likely is it that they ’ re all wrong ?
The other data comes from Trafalgar , the pollster on whom Trump fans everywhere are pinning their hopes .
( Well , Rasmussen too , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the popular vote today , which , ah , no . )
Trafalgar famously called Trump ’ s shocking victory in Michigan four years ago ; he went on to beat Clinton there by three-tenths of a point .
Here ’ s where they see the race in Michigan right now : A lead of six-tenths of a point .
The closest Trump has been to a lead in Michigan in any other poll this month was a six-point deficit .
Typically he trails in the eight- or nine-point range .
Here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has him winning by a ( slightly ) larger margin over Biden than he enjoyed over Clinton .
Does that seem plausible ?
I ’ m not addressing that question to the hardcore MAGA types , who think the president ’ s about to put New York and California in play .
I ’ m addressing it to the more grounded readers .
Should we trust Trafalgar ’ s take on Michigan — and other states — knowing that their data is telling them right now that Biden ’ s a weaker candidate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Michigan primary to Bernie Sanders in 2016 ; Biden destroyed Sanders in the Michigan primary earlier this year .
That being so , what does logic tell us about the reliability of this data , and by extension Trafalgar ’ s prediction of another Trump win ?

I swear to you, in spite of all the gloomy polls we’ve posted over the past two months, I’m open to the possibility that Trump wins. I think he’ll win Florida. He’s not very far behind in Pennsylvania. One would expect Ohio and Iowa and Texas, all of which he won easily four years ago, to come home to him. And then it’s a simple matter of him overperforming by just two or three points in Arizona and North Carolina. Last week I posted Trafalgar pollster Robert Cahaly’s prediction that Trump would win reelection easily. On Monday I posted USC’s analysis indicating that Trump will again win the electoral college based on the data they’ve gathered from people about how their social circles are leaning. This morning I posted Jon Ralston’s analysis of Nevada suggesting that Democrats might not be hitting their early-voting targets. (Although Ralston sounds a little more bullish this afternoon.)
The Trump upset scenario is real.
But Georgia is a problem. A much bigger problem than Texas too, even though Texas dwarfs it in terms of electoral votes. Texas has been (somewhat) more reliably red in recent years than Georgia has and its large Latino population is apt to be a few points more favorable to Trump this year than it was in 2016. And even if the unthinkable happens and Texas flips, it won’t be a tipping-point state. If Biden wins Texas, it’ll be his 380th electoral vote, not his 270th.
Georgia might be different. I’ve written about this in other posts this week, but a Michigan + Wisconsin + Georgia combo is enough to hand Biden the presidency, presuming that he holds onto all Hillary 2016 states. And given the polling lately, there’s no strong reason to think Biden has less of a chance there than he does in other nearby toss-up states like North Carolina and Florida. All three states are basically even. Monmouth has a new poll out this afternoon confirming that the state really is in play: Biden 50, Trump 46, assuming high turnout. (Lower turnout points to Biden 50, Trump 48.) And note that Monmouth hasn’t been bullish on Biden’s chances in the state this year. They had Trump up two points in the last poll there, published a month ago.
Trump maintains an advantage among Georgia voters aged 65 and older – leading Biden by 58% to 42% now, versus 61% to 36% in September. This is noteworthy because Biden has led among senior voters both nationally and in the other swing states Monmouth has polled in the past month. However, Biden is able to offset his deficit in Georgia with support from younger voters, who make up a relatively larger share of the electorate here than in other swing states. He currently holds a 54% to 40% lead over Trump among voters under 50 years old, up from his 47% to 42% lead with this group last month. Biden maintains an advantage in 14 swing counties* where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election. He leads Trump among registered voters in these counties by 55% to 35%, similar to his 54% to 34% margin in September. He is also holding steady in counties that went solidly for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (71% to 27% now, versus 70% to 24% las month). Trump has a strong 64% to 33% lead in the counties he won handily four years ago, but this is not quite as wide as last month (71% to 25%).
Asked how likely or not they are to vote for each candidate, 47 percent said they’re not likely at all to vote for Biden but 51 percent said they’re not likely at all to vote for Trump. The good news for Trump is that, with one exception, no poll of Georgia has showed Biden leading by as many as four points this fall, which makes this a bit of an outlier. The bad news for him is that the GOP’s own polling is reportedly showing a Biden lead now as well: “A pair of internal G.O.P. surveys of the state indicate that Mr. Biden has established a small advantage, according to Republican strategists familiar with the data, speaking on the condition of anonymity. That’s in large part because of his wide lead in the metropolitan counties around Atlanta that Hillary Clinton narrowly carried in 2016.”
The site Inside Elections moved its forecast for Georgia today from toss-up to … leans Democratic:
🚨In the race for president, @InsideElections is making the following ratings shifts: TEXAS moves from Tilt Republican to TOSS-UP
NORTH CAROLINA moves from Toss-up to TILT DEMOCRATIC
GEORGIA moves from Toss-up to TILT DEMOCRATIChttps://t.co/R3bnWoHLHn — Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) October 28, 2020
You can read IE’s write-up here of why Georgia really might go blue this year. It’s well-suited to Biden’s strengths — a large black population, a growing number of urban voters, and a blue trend over the last few cycles among college-educated whites. Trump won that group in GA by 41 points four years ago, helping him to a narrow-ish five-point win statewide. If Biden cuts deeply into the president’s share of white college grads this time, which has been the case in national polling for many months, all bets are off.
In trying to assess the big picture of who’s ahead not just in Georgia but nationally, let me give you two things to think about. One comes from Dave Wasserman, who’s looking at polls of congressional districts all over the map. Here’s what he’s seeing in Pennsylvania, a must-win for the president:
So far, the pattern is consistent in scores of district-level polls that Trump is running well behind his '16 margins in Bucks, Harrisburg/York, Allegheny/Beaver, NEPA and the Lehigh Valley. Where does he make up for that in the rest of PA? Answer: he probably doesn't. — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 28, 2020
Those are all polls of different districts, all pointing the same way. How likely is it that they’re all wrong?
The other data comes from Trafalgar, the pollster on whom Trump fans everywhere are pinning their hopes. (Well, Rasmussen too, but Rasmussen has Trump up a point in the popular vote today, which, ah, no.) Trafalgar famously called Trump’s shocking victory in Michigan four years ago; he went on to beat Clinton there by three-tenths of a point. Here’s where they see the race in Michigan right now:
A lead of six-tenths of a point. The closest Trump has been to a lead in Michigan in any other poll this month was a six-point deficit. Typically he trails in the eight- or nine-point range. Here’s the key: Trafalgar actually has him winning by a (slightly) larger margin over Biden than he enjoyed over Clinton. Does that seem plausible? I’m not addressing that question to the hardcore MAGA types, who think the president’s about to put New York and California in play. I’m addressing it to the more grounded readers. Should we trust Trafalgar’s take on Michigan — and other states — knowing that their data is telling them right now that Biden’s a weaker candidate than Hillary was? Hillary lost the Michigan primary to Bernie Sanders in 2016; Biden destroyed Sanders in the Michigan primary earlier this year. That being so, what does logic tell us about the reliability of this data, and by extension Trafalgar’s prediction of another Trump win?


hotair--2020-10-28--Biden's relaxed schedule still making some Dems nervous, but they also worry about him getting sick

Biden ’ s campaign strategy continues to look like an attempt to run out the clock while polls show he has a lead .
But some Democrats continue to worry that Biden is taking a big risk by not being aggressive in the final days of the campaign .
Today the NY Times points out that in any normal election year what Biden is doing would be considered a very lax approach : On the Friday before Election Day , Joseph R. Biden Jr. will be in the Midwest , campaigning in both Iowa and Wisconsin as he presses his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and for any other campaign , that would be a normal — even gentle — day of travel in the homestretch of a bitterly fought , high-stakes presidential race .
But compared with many of Mr. Biden ’ s days this month , and even a few this week , it ’ s the equivalent of a barnstorm .
On Sunday , Mr. Biden held no in-person campaign events , straying from his home in the Wilmington area only for church .
On Monday , he ventured out just briefly to greet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
On Wednesday , six days before Election Day , he was back in Delaware , hardly a battleground state , giving remarks on health care and voting himself .
In between , he traveled to Georgia , putting pressure on President Trump in a closely contested state , and he is slated to campaign in Florida Thursday headed into an intense final weekend… He has rarely ventured west of Michigan , he almost never remains overnight on the trail and he often makes just one or two stops when he does travel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but many of his other events are still small and socially distanced .
Some Democrats in battleground states where polls show the race is tighter continue to worry that Biden is making a mistake : In recent days , even as cases have risen in Wisconsin , a number of Democrats there pressed the Biden campaign to plan another visit , said Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee… “ We are purple , purple , purple , ” Mr. Barrett said .
“ I know what the polls say .
But I also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago.
” A couple of Democrats interviewed by the Times admitted there was another concern about Biden himself , i.e .
a reason not to have him spend more time on the trail in the closing weeks .
“ It would be a hell of a thing if , having been as careful as they ’ ve been , as responsible as they ’ ve been , if in the last week they allow Biden to get sick , ” David Axelrod said .
And the chairman of the Texas Democratic Party said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , too near the end for him to jeopardize where he ’ s at by getting sick.
” The Democratic spin is that Biden is being consistent with his own message , i.e .
taking the coronavirus seriously and not putting anyone at risk by holding rallies .
That ’ s one possible explanation .
Another is that Biden doesn ’ t have the stamina to campaign and COVID is providing an excuse for never getting Biden out of 2nd gear .
A third possibility is that his camp really is far more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gets sick than they are saying .
We saw just this week how far the media is willing to go to protect Biden from the claim he ’ s lost a step .
But if he does lose the election I wouldn ’ t be surprised if part of the recriminations were admissions from insiders that his condition just didn ’ t allow for them to do more .
On the other hand , if Biden wins the election he ’ ll have 2 1/2 months of transition in which he remain somewhat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ability to call a 9 am lid several days out of the week would end once and for all .
And then we ’ ll all find out together how much stamina Biden really has left .
One way or another he ’ s going to surprise a lot of people .

Biden’s campaign strategy continues to look like an attempt to run out the clock while polls show he has a lead. But some Democrats continue to worry that Biden is taking a big risk by not being aggressive in the final days of the campaign. Today the NY Times points out that in any normal election year what Biden is doing would be considered a very lax approach:
On the Friday before Election Day, Joseph R. Biden Jr. will be in the Midwest, campaigning in both Iowa and Wisconsin as he presses his closing argument. In any other year, and for any other campaign, that would be a normal — even gentle — day of travel in the homestretch of a bitterly fought, high-stakes presidential race. But compared with many of Mr. Biden’s days this month, and even a few this week, it’s the equivalent of a barnstorm. On Sunday, Mr. Biden held no in-person campaign events, straying from his home in the Wilmington area only for church. On Monday, he ventured out just briefly to greet supporters across the state line in Pennsylvania. On Wednesday, six days before Election Day, he was back in Delaware, hardly a battleground state, giving remarks on health care and voting himself. In between, he traveled to Georgia, putting pressure on President Trump in a closely contested state, and he is slated to campaign in Florida Thursday headed into an intense final weekend… He has rarely ventured west of Michigan, he almost never remains overnight on the trail and he often makes just one or two stops when he does travel. He has embraced drive-in car rallies, but many of his other events are still small and socially distanced.
Some Democrats in battleground states where polls show the race is tighter continue to worry that Biden is making a mistake:
In recent days, even as cases have risen in Wisconsin, a number of Democrats there pressed the Biden campaign to plan another visit, said Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee… “We are purple, purple, purple,” Mr. Barrett said. “I know what the polls say. But I also know what the polls said four years ago.”
A couple of Democrats interviewed by the Times admitted there was another concern about Biden himself, i.e. a reason not to have him spend more time on the trail in the closing weeks. “It would be a hell of a thing if, having been as careful as they’ve been, as responsible as they’ve been, if in the last week they allow Biden to get sick,” David Axelrod said. And the chairman of the Texas Democratic Party said something similar, “this is too, too near the end for him to jeopardize where he’s at by getting sick.”
The Democratic spin is that Biden is being consistent with his own message, i.e. taking the coronavirus seriously and not putting anyone at risk by holding rallies. That’s one possible explanation. Another is that Biden doesn’t have the stamina to campaign and COVID is providing an excuse for never getting Biden out of 2nd gear.
A third possibility is that his camp really is far more concerned about what could happen if he gets sick than they are saying.
We saw just this week how far the media is willing to go to protect Biden from the claim he’s lost a step. But if he does lose the election I wouldn’t be surprised if part of the recriminations were admissions from insiders that his condition just didn’t allow for them to do more.
On the other hand, if Biden wins the election he’ll have 2 1/2 months of transition in which he remain somewhat on the sidelines but once inaugurated his ability to call a 9 am lid several days out of the week would end once and for all. And then we’ll all find out together how much stamina Biden really has left. One way or another he’s going to surprise a lot of people.


hotair--2020-10-28--RCI: Senate committee investigating Hunter Biden for FARA violations

The political , if not legal , theory behind this is apparently : What ’ s good for the Russian goose is good for the Chinese gander .
Before Robert Mueller used the Foreign Agent Registration Act as a lever to force people to talk , no one took violations of it seriously as a criminal issue , least of all the Department of Justice .
Now that Paul Manafort and associates of Michael Flynn got convicted on FARA-related charges , however , suddenly it ’ s all the rage .
And in fairness , it ’ s also the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use here is just as politically motivated : A search of Justice Department databases reveals that Hunter Biden failed to register as a foreign agent while promoting the interests of foreign business partners in Washington , including brokering meetings with his father and other government officials , and RealClear Investigations has learned that at least one Senate committee is investigating whether Joe Biden ’ s son violated federal laws requiring disclosure of such foreign contacts .
The Obama administration did not prosecute Hunter Biden for potential violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of FARA cases relative to other administrations — including its opening of criminal investigations on no fewer than six Trump campaign advisers in 2016 .
One of them , Paul Manafort , ended up in prison on charges that included failing to publicly disclose his lobbying on behalf of Ukrainian clients and partners .
Newly discovered April 2015 emails show Hunter Biden appeared to be helping a Ukrainian energy executive meet with and lobby his father , who was vice president at the time .
Hunter , who held a lucrative seat on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the time , also sought meetings with State Department officials .
Until Mueller , FARA violations were only slightly more likely to result in criminal probes than supposed violations of the Logan Act .
This also misses the fact that Manafort got convicted on other and more serious charges , as well as the fact that the DoJ had built a case against him as far back as 2014 .
They didn ’ t go after Manafort at that time because they hoped to net bigger fish , but when that didn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investigation .
Mueller picked it back up and added in the FARA violations in order to squeeze Manafort for testimony against Donald Trump .
When it turned out that there wasn ’ t any crimes to charge in the “ Russia-collusion ” case , Mueller just polished off the existing DoJ cases against Manafort and Rick Gates .
Still , the use of FARA as a snare now has precedent .
RCI ’ s Paul Sperry reports that one Senate committee plans to use it in dealing with Hunter Biden , although which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a surprise : The Senate Finance Committee , which is chaired by Sen. Chuck Grassley , an Iowa Republican , is actively investigating Hunter Biden ’ s possible non-compliance with the FARA statute , according to a spokesman .
“ Chairman Grassley is continuing to review developments surrounding Hunter Biden ’ s foreign-influence arrangements to determine whether any potential violation occurred , ” Grassley spokesman Taylor Foy said , adding that staff investigators are combing through the trove of emails found on Hunter ’ s laptop .
Asked if they are preparing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ criminal investigation , Foy said , “ We haven ’ t reached that point at the moment , but we are actively looking at the material with FARA in mind.
” Not the Intelligence Committee ?
Not Homeland Security , where Ron Johnson is already interested in the Hunter threads ?
The Finance Committee seems like an odd fit here for a FARA probe .
The DoJ would be the most likely agency to deal with this , but given their decades-long inclination to treat FARA as a minor issue , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not following Mueller ’ s precedent here .
Sperry reports that the National Legal and Policy Center plans to file a complaint with the DoJ , but it seems unlikely that they will get any more interested , especially in a case involving the son of a major-party presidential nominee days before the national election .
These efforts are likely doomed anyway , legally and politically .
The statute of limitations on FARA is five years , which means that all of the 2013 stuff is useless .
If Hunter lobbied his father @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maybe it works , but only if it gets filed really soon , but even that requires a connection to a foreign government .
The DoJ would have to prove he actually lobbied his father on behalf of the Ukraine government , which so far we haven ’ t seen firmly established — as it was in the Manafort case , because the previous Ukrainian government was his client .
( We haven ’ t seen firm evidence that Hunter lobbied Joe for Burisma , either ; they both deny it . )
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Sinohawk wouldn ’ t qualify , since Joe wasn ’ t in office at the time .
Simply doing business in a foreign country doesn ’ t qualify ; you have to be lobbying on behalf of a foreign government or entities controlled by that government .
Politically , this is a dog , too .
Hunter isn ’ t running for office , nor is he likely to do so .
A FARA indictment might dent Joe a little , but most people are inclined to dismiss October surprises , especially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pushing this in Senate committees in the last week of the election looks more like a stunt than a real investigation into real corruption .
Shouldn ’ t all this attention be on Joe Biden ’ s agenda , and Donald Trump ’ s wins over the last four years ?

The political, if not legal, theory behind this is apparently: What’s good for the Russian goose is good for the Chinese gander. Before Robert Mueller used the Foreign Agent Registration Act as a lever to force people to talk, no one took violations of it seriously as a criminal issue, least of all the Department of Justice. Now that Paul Manafort and associates of Michael Flynn got convicted on FARA-related charges, however, suddenly it’s all the rage.
And in fairness, it’s also the law, although it looks like the use here is just as politically motivated:
A search of Justice Department databases reveals that Hunter Biden failed to register as a foreign agent while promoting the interests of foreign business partners in Washington, including brokering meetings with his father and other government officials, and RealClear Investigations has learned that at least one Senate committee is investigating whether Joe Biden’s son violated federal laws requiring disclosure of such foreign contacts. The Obama administration did not prosecute Hunter Biden for potential violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act, despite its much more aggressive pursuit of FARA cases relative to other administrations — including its opening of criminal investigations on no fewer than six Trump campaign advisers in 2016. One of them, Paul Manafort, ended up in prison on charges that included failing to publicly disclose his lobbying on behalf of Ukrainian clients and partners. Newly discovered April 2015 emails show Hunter Biden appeared to be helping a Ukrainian energy executive meet with and lobby his father, who was vice president at the time. Hunter, who held a lucrative seat on the board of Ukrainian gas giant Burisma at the time, also sought meetings with State Department officials.
Until Mueller, FARA violations were only slightly more likely to result in criminal probes than supposed violations of the Logan Act. This also misses the fact that Manafort got convicted on other and more serious charges, as well as the fact that the DoJ had built a case against him as far back as 2014. They didn’t go after Manafort at that time because they hoped to net bigger fish, but when that didn’t materialize, they shelved their investigation. Mueller picked it back up and added in the FARA violations in order to squeeze Manafort for testimony against Donald Trump. When it turned out that there wasn’t any crimes to charge in the “Russia-collusion” case, Mueller just polished off the existing DoJ cases against Manafort and Rick Gates.
Still, the use of FARA as a snare now has precedent. RCI’s Paul Sperry reports that one Senate committee plans to use it in dealing with Hunter Biden, although which committee turns out to be a bit of a surprise:
The Senate Finance Committee, which is chaired by Sen. Chuck Grassley, an Iowa Republican, is actively investigating Hunter Biden’s possible non-compliance with the FARA statute, according to a spokesman. “Chairman Grassley is continuing to review developments surrounding Hunter Biden’s foreign-influence arrangements to determine whether any potential violation occurred,” Grassley spokesman Taylor Foy said, adding that staff investigators are combing through the trove of emails found on Hunter’s laptop. Asked if they are preparing to refer the matter to Justice for criminal investigation, Foy said, “We haven’t reached that point at the moment, but we are actively looking at the material with FARA in mind.”
Not the Intelligence Committee? Not Homeland Security, where Ron Johnson is already interested in the Hunter threads? The Finance Committee seems like an odd fit here for a FARA probe. The DoJ would be the most likely agency to deal with this, but given their decades-long inclination to treat FARA as a minor issue, it’s not surprising that they’re not following Mueller’s precedent here. Sperry reports that the National Legal and Policy Center plans to file a complaint with the DoJ, but it seems unlikely that they will get any more interested, especially in a case involving the son of a major-party presidential nominee days before the national election.
These efforts are likely doomed anyway, legally and politically. The statute of limitations on FARA is five years, which means that all of the 2013 stuff is useless. If Hunter lobbied his father on Ukraine later than that, then maybe it works, but only if it gets filed really soon, but even that requires a connection to a foreign government. The DoJ would have to prove he actually lobbied his father on behalf of the Ukraine government, which so far we haven’t seen firmly established — as it was in the Manafort case, because the previous Ukrainian government was his client. (We haven’t seen firm evidence that Hunter lobbied Joe for Burisma, either; they both deny it.) The recent issues with CEFC China Energy and Sinohawk wouldn’t qualify, since Joe wasn’t in office at the time. Simply doing business in a foreign country doesn’t qualify; you have to be lobbying on behalf of a foreign government or entities controlled by that government.
Politically, this is a dog, too. Hunter isn’t running for office, nor is he likely to do so. A FARA indictment might dent Joe a little, but most people are inclined to dismiss October surprises, especially those aimed more at family members. Pushing this in Senate committees in the last week of the election looks more like a stunt than a real investigation into real corruption. Shouldn’t all this attention be on Joe Biden’s agenda, and Donald Trump’s wins over the last four years?