hotair--2020-03-16--Yep. The US Census Bureau has its own coronavirus problems and (possibly) opportunities

Earlier this week , I engaged in some idle speculation about how the coronavirus epidemic could impact the process of taking the 2020 census .
The vast majority of citizens responding to the census won ’ t be impacted significantly because they are either mailing in their forms or completing them online .
But for the people they hire to either go do headcounts in the homeless community or those going door to door interviewing non-respondents , fears of encountering COVID-19 might dissuade them from applying for these jobs .
As it turns out , the US Census Bureau was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re at least trying to head some of these problems off at the pass .
But until the full scope of the epidemic is quantified , it ’ s unclear how much of an impact it will have .
( Associated Press ) An analysis by The Associated Press shows how low unemployment has affected the bureau ’ s ability to attract workers , with urban counties , especially large ones , more likely to hit recruitment goals than rural areas .
The bureau has yet to account for how hiring could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The virus may dampen workers ’ enthusiasm for going door to door , but it could also create a new application pool of workers who have been laid off .
While the bureau has reached its recruiting goal nationally , hiring has varied widely from place to place .
States with populations concentrated in large metro areas — Georgia , Illinois , Maryland and Nevada — have overrecruited .
Mostly rural states with high numbers of older residents — Vermont , Maine , New Hampshire and West Virginia — are well below recruitment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bureau was facing was one of those problems that you ’ re happy to have .
With unemployment at record lows a few months ago and up to a million jobs still available , not as many people were willing to sign on for these sorts of temporary positions .
But now we ’ re seeing people being laid off in nearly every state as businesses shut down in the face of the pandemic .
That means there are more people looking for a job that pays better than what they could get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upwards of $ 18 per hour this year which probably won ’ t see you running out to shop for a yacht , but it ’ s still significantly better than the maximum unemployment benefits in most states .
So in an ironic twist , the pandemic that ’ s threatening the very people they ’ re trying to reach may just wind up supplying the workforce that ’ s required to complete this massive task .
The question that ’ s yet to be answered is how the Census Bureau will tempt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out and get the job done and how they will keep them ( and the public ) safe .
Keep in mind that all of the enumerator jobs that involve door-to-door visits or public headcounts are pretty much the polar opposite of “ social distancing.
” I suppose the local offices could offer the enumerators free surgical masks , gloves and hand sanitizer to take with them out on the streets .
( Well… assuming they can actually find any of those products . )
But that ’ s going to drive up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you multiply those costs to cover up to half a million workers .
I also find myself wondering what the protocol will be if an enumerator rings a doorbell and the people inside refuse to admit them because they are self-isolating and/or afraid of letting COVID-19 in the door .
Sure , that ’ s technically against the law , but do you really think that the government wants to deal with the optics of armed police dragging people in surgical masks out of their homes ?
The only real danger here is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ currently being hit hardest by the virus ( like New York ) are already losing more representation in Congress because residents are fleeing the high-tax states .
They really can ’ t afford to turn in an even lower number .
But as with everything else in society , the coronavirus is reaching out and impacting nearly every aspect of our lives .
And that includes the 2020 census .

Earlier this week, I engaged in some idle speculation about how the coronavirus epidemic could impact the process of taking the 2020 census. The vast majority of citizens responding to the census won’t be impacted significantly because they are either mailing in their forms or completing them online. But for the people they hire to either go do headcounts in the homeless community or those going door to door interviewing non-respondents, fears of encountering COVID-19 might dissuade them from applying for these jobs.
As it turns out, the US Census Bureau was already pondering the same things and they’re at least trying to head some of these problems off at the pass. But until the full scope of the epidemic is quantified, it’s unclear how much of an impact it will have. (Associated Press)
An analysis by The Associated Press shows how low unemployment has affected the bureau’s ability to attract workers, with urban counties, especially large ones, more likely to hit recruitment goals than rural areas. The bureau has yet to account for how hiring could be affected by novel coronavirus concerns. The virus may dampen workers’ enthusiasm for going door to door, but it could also create a new application pool of workers who have been laid off. While the bureau has reached its recruiting goal nationally, hiring has varied widely from place to place. States with populations concentrated in large metro areas — Georgia, Illinois, Maryland and Nevada — have overrecruited. Mostly rural states with high numbers of older residents — Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire and West Virginia — are well below recruitment goals.
The original issue the Census Bureau was facing was one of those problems that you’re happy to have. With unemployment at record lows a few months ago and up to a million jobs still available, not as many people were willing to sign on for these sorts of temporary positions. But now we’re seeing people being laid off in nearly every state as businesses shut down in the face of the pandemic.
That means there are more people looking for a job that pays better than what they could get from unemployment benefits. Enumerator positions pay upwards of $18 per hour this year which probably won’t see you running out to shop for a yacht, but it’s still significantly better than the maximum unemployment benefits in most states. So in an ironic twist, the pandemic that’s threatening the very people they’re trying to reach may just wind up supplying the workforce that’s required to complete this massive task.
The question that’s yet to be answered is how the Census Bureau will tempt people skittish about the coronavirus to go out and get the job done and how they will keep them (and the public) safe. Keep in mind that all of the enumerator jobs that involve door-to-door visits or public headcounts are pretty much the polar opposite of “social distancing.”
I suppose the local offices could offer the enumerators free surgical masks, gloves and hand sanitizer to take with them out on the streets. (Well… assuming they can actually find any of those products.) But that’s going to drive up the cost of the census significantly when you multiply those costs to cover up to half a million workers. I also find myself wondering what the protocol will be if an enumerator rings a doorbell and the people inside refuse to admit them because they are self-isolating and/or afraid of letting COVID-19 in the door. Sure, that’s technically against the law, but do you really think that the government wants to deal with the optics of armed police dragging people in surgical masks out of their homes?
The only real danger here is an undercount. Some of the states currently being hit hardest by the virus (like New York) are already losing more representation in Congress because residents are fleeing the high-tax states. They really can’t afford to turn in an even lower number. But as with everything else in society, the coronavirus is reaching out and impacting nearly every aspect of our lives. And that includes the 2020 census.


hotair--2020-03-16--UK: On second thought, our coronavirus strategy could kill 250,000 people

Say what you will about Trump ’ s approach to this crisis ( which got noticeably better today ) , at least it wasn ’ t “ Let people get sick.
” Which was , it seems , the UK ’ s strategy until this afternoon .
Sort of .
Boris Johnson ’ s government believes that mass infection of the population is inevitable and , what ’ s more , could actually produce a much worse outbreak than the current one this fall via a “ second wave ” of contagion , as happened with the flu in 1918 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as an opportunity to let healthy younger people get infected and build “ herd immunity ” among themselves .
Don ’ t shut anything down .
Don ’ t try to test every suspect case .
Rather , have the old and the chronically ill quarantine themselves for four months or more while people who are less at risk of dying are out and about , passing the virus among themselves .
By the time senior citizens emerge in the fall , many younger Britons will have already had the disease and recovered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contracting it again .
That means they won ’ t need hospital treatment at a moment when seniors will be falling ill from the disease and crowding ICUs .
In other words , Britain was going to try to control the spread with an eye to maximizing health-care capacity .
Just one problem .
A new study shows that the first wave of mass outbreak among “ healthy ” people wouldn ’ t have been so healthy .
The UK only realised “ in the last few days ” that attempts to “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic would not work , and that it needed to shift to a strategy to “ suppress ” the outbreak , according to a report by a team of experts who have been advising the government .
The report , published by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team on Monday night , found that the strategy previously being pursued by the government — dubbed “ mitigation ” and involving home isolation of suspect cases and their family members but not including restrictions on wider society — would “ likely result in hundreds of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most notably intensive care units ) being overwhelmed many times over ” .
Glad they figured it out in the final few days before committing to it fully , when they ’ d be beyond hope of shifting to a social-distancing strategy that might help slow the disease down .
William Hanage , an epidemiologist at Harvard , has a piece out today titled , “ When I heard about Britain ’ s ‘ herd immunity ’ coronavirus plan , I thought it was satire.
” What was wrong with the UK strategy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explains , it ’ s an open question at the moment whether contracting and recovering from COVID-19 confers immunity at all , and if it does , for how long .
Immunity among SARS patients lasts a long time ; immunity among patients who ’ ve contracted other coronaviruses is much shorter .
Imagine the Brits letting tens of millions of younger people get the disease , watching many thousands of them die , and then discovering that … they ’ re actually no longer immune once the “ second wave ” begins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Obviously , many elderly and chronically ill Brits will need help to function in their day-to-day lives over the next four months while they ’ re in self-quarantine .
Who ’ s supposed to be helping them while everyone else is out getting infected ?
“ Who do you think works at those nursing homes ?
Highly trained gibbons ?
” said Hanage .
Yet another problem : “ The [ British ] government has thus far recommended that people with mild symptoms isolate themselves , even though people can clearly spread the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can they spread the virus before symptoms appear , one study claims that people are at their most infectious at the earliest stages of the illness , possibly before they ’ re even showing symptoms .
In other words , the UK ’ s hope of limiting the contagion during its “ first wave ” by asking only symptomatic younger people to self-quarantine is flawed from the start .
Preemptive social distancing by the general population is the only way to slow the spread .
They were plotting a long-term strategy to cope @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to plunge them into an Italy-style catastrophe in a matter of weeks .
Why not try to delay the catastrophe for as long as possible and hope that the collective ingenuity of the world ’ s scientific community comes up with a treatment in the meantime that will grossly mitigate casualties once the illness is spreading rapidly ?
The Brits have at least steered out of the path of the oncoming train at the last moment .
The Dutch appear to be sticking to the strategy : If infection is spreading more or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can any country allow travel from the Netherlands ?
Under EU rules , citizens of member nations are supposed to be able to travel freely across each other ’ s borders .
That can ’ t possibly continue in a system where they ’ re following wildly different mitigation strategies .
There ’ s one interesting wrinkle to Britain ’ s now aborted approach : Behavioral scientists advising Johnson have warned him that people won ’ t tolerate social distancing forever .
The initial idea , it seems , was to try to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ widespread social distancing to when the “ first wave ” of the disease was likely to be reaching its peak , around 14 weeks from now .
How many millions of people would have been already infected by the 14-week stage under the original strategy , thus minimizing the benefits of social distancing at that late point , God only knows .
Here ’ s a , er , viral video of Italians describing messages from the future that they wish they could have sent themselves 10 days ago .
The obituaries in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A new proposal prepared by a crisis management team in Turin calls for flatly denying treatment to anyone who ’ s 80 or over or in poor health in the name of preserving scarce resources .

Say what you will about Trump’s approach to this crisis (which got noticeably better today), at least it wasn’t “Let people get sick.”
Which was, it seems, the UK’s strategy until this afternoon.
Sort of. Boris Johnson’s government believes that mass infection of the population is inevitable and, what’s more, could actually produce a much worse outbreak than the current one this fall via a “second wave” of contagion, as happened with the flu in 1918. Solution: Use the current outbreak as an opportunity to let healthy younger people get infected and build “herd immunity” among themselves. Don’t shut anything down. Don’t try to test every suspect case. Rather, have the old and the chronically ill quarantine themselves for four months or more while people who are less at risk of dying are out and about, passing the virus among themselves. By the time senior citizens emerge in the fall, many younger Britons will have already had the disease and recovered, which will make them immune from contracting it again. That means they won’t need hospital treatment at a moment when seniors will be falling ill from the disease and crowding ICUs.
In other words, Britain was going to try to control the spread with an eye to maximizing health-care capacity.
Just one problem. A new study shows that the first wave of mass outbreak among “healthy” people wouldn’t have been so healthy.
The UK only realised “in the last few days” that attempts to “mitigate” the impact of the coronavirus pandemic would not work, and that it needed to shift to a strategy to “suppress” the outbreak, according to a report by a team of experts who have been advising the government. The report, published by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team on Monday night, found that the strategy previously being pursued by the government — dubbed “mitigation” and involving home isolation of suspect cases and their family members but not including restrictions on wider society — would “likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over”.
Glad they figured it out in the final few days before committing to it fully, when they’d be beyond hope of shifting to a social-distancing strategy that might help slow the disease down.
William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard, has a piece out today titled, “When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire.” What was wrong with the UK strategy? Well, as this Atlantic piece explains, it’s an open question at the moment whether contracting and recovering from COVID-19 confers immunity at all, and if it does, for how long. Immunity among SARS patients lasts a long time; immunity among patients who’ve contracted other coronaviruses is much shorter. Imagine the Brits letting tens of millions of younger people get the disease, watching many thousands of them die, and then discovering that … they’re actually no longer immune once the “second wave” begins in the fall.
Another problem. Obviously, many elderly and chronically ill Brits will need help to function in their day-to-day lives over the next four months while they’re in self-quarantine. Who’s supposed to be helping them while everyone else is out getting infected? “Who do you think works at those nursing homes? Highly trained gibbons?” said Hanage.
Yet another problem: “The [British] government has thus far recommended that people with mild symptoms isolate themselves, even though people can clearly spread the virus before symptoms appear.” Not only can they spread the virus before symptoms appear, one study claims that people are at their most infectious at the earliest stages of the illness, possibly before they’re even showing symptoms. In other words, the UK’s hope of limiting the contagion during its “first wave” by asking only symptomatic younger people to self-quarantine is flawed from the start. Preemptive social distancing by the general population is the only way to slow the spread.
They were plotting a long-term strategy to cope with a problem that’s about to plunge them into an Italy-style catastrophe in a matter of weeks. Why not try to delay the catastrophe for as long as possible and hope that the collective ingenuity of the world’s scientific community comes up with a treatment in the meantime that will grossly mitigate casualties once the illness is spreading rapidly?
The Brits have at least steered out of the path of the oncoming train at the last moment. The Dutch appear to be sticking to the strategy:
NEW: Netherland’s PM in historic national TV address Aims for a 'controlled spread' of the #coronavirus. @MarkRutte ‘a large part' of population will become infected but that that will also lead to increased immunity. No lockdown; Netherlands opts for 'herd immunity' pic.twitter.com/Zbet8QGme4 — Darren McCaffrey (@DarrenEuronews) March 16, 2020
If infection is spreading more or less freely in the Netherlands, how can any country allow travel from the Netherlands? Under EU rules, citizens of member nations are supposed to be able to travel freely across each other’s borders. That can’t possibly continue in a system where they’re following wildly different mitigation strategies.
There’s one interesting wrinkle to Britain’s now aborted approach: Behavioral scientists advising Johnson have warned him that people won’t tolerate social distancing forever. The initial idea, it seems, was to try to time the government’s calls for widespread social distancing to when the “first wave” of the disease was likely to be reaching its peak, around 14 weeks from now. How many millions of people would have been already infected by the 14-week stage under the original strategy, thus minimizing the benefits of social distancing at that late point, God only knows.
Here’s a, er, viral video of Italians describing messages from the future that they wish they could have sent themselves 10 days ago. The obituaries in local newspapers go on for many pages. A new proposal prepared by a crisis management team in Turin calls for flatly denying treatment to anyone who’s 80 or over or in poor health in the name of preserving scarce resources.


hotair--2020-03-16--Did U.S. offer big bucks to German company for COVID-19 vaccine research?

Angela Merkel has a whole new reason to be ticked off at President Trump and I couldn ’ t be happier .
Today Merkel ’ s administration is discussing a report that the Trump administration offered a German company a whole lot of money for research on a COVID-19 vaccine being developed .
The alleged offer was made to CureVac , a private German pharmaceutical company currently working on a vaccine after a March 2 meeting at the White House .
Chief executive Daniel Menichella attended a meeting with Vice-President Pence ’ s coronavirus task force and said , “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be able to develop a potent vaccine candidate within a few months.
” President Trump briefly attended .
Four days ago CureVac announced that Menichella , who is an American , was leaving the company .
He headed the company for two years .
No reason was given .
One of the firm ’ s founders , Ingmar Hoerr , is succeeding him .
Menichella was thanked for his contributions , including starting the coronavirus vaccine program .
As word spread from unconfirmed sources , German officials became concerned that the Trump administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to monopolize the market .
Interior Minister Horst Seehofer , asked to confirm a report the administration was attempting to secure exclusive rights to any vaccine created by the German biopharmaceutical firm CureVac , said he had “ heard from several other members of government today that is the case.
” Germany ’ s Welt am Sonntag newspaper reported Sunday that the administration wanted to secure the rights and move research and development to the United States .
The vaccine would be developed “ only for the USA , ” the newspaper said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discussed in Monday ’ s regular coronavirus crisis committee meeting , which is expected to include representatives of the Health Ministry and Chancellor Angela Merkel ’ s office .
The newspaper also reported that the German government was making counter-offers to CureVac .
The Trump administration isn ’ t saying much about the report but CureVac isn ’ t the only company the administration is speaking to about vaccine research and development .
They have spoken to more than 25 companies and call the story on CureVac as “ wildly overplayed ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ any company that claims to be able to help .
And any solution found would be shared with the world , ” the U.S. official added .
The U.S .
Ambassador to Germany and the acting director of national intelligence , Richard Grenell , tweeted the report is “ not true ” .
He says that now there is backpedaling from news organizations that ran with the story .
This tweet from CureVac on Monday morning specifically denies the newspaper report .
How much clearer can it get ?
Let Merkel and her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to over a story that is false .
The main point is that companies are working on a vaccine .
If CureVac is receiving counter-offers to an offer that wasn ’ t even made , so be it .
Let the German government give the company an incentive to remain where it is .
The German newspaper story used unnamed sources as often happens when a news outlet is running a story that it hopes shows the Trump administration in a bad light .
The unnamed sources weren ’ t even clear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the research or for the right to produce the vaccine .
The privately held biotechnology firm has its headquarters in the southwestern city of Tübingen , Germany .
It also has an office in Boston , where many of the nation ’ s leading biotech firms have operations around the Harvard and Massachusetts Institute of Technology campuses .
According to the German newspaper Die Welt am Sonntag , which first reported the story on Sunday , Mr. Trump offered CureVac roughly $ 1 billion in exchange for exclusive access to the vaccine .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ source who said Mr. Trump wanted the resulting vaccine “ only for the United States.
” But another German official , reached by The New York Times , said it was unclear whether the administration simply wanted the research work , and for any resulting production to be on American soil .
The New York Times article goes on to state that “ the Trump administration has been unusually aggressive in attempting to get American control of companies that deal in technology Mr. Trump views as central to American security.
” Good .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that to the critics of President Trump and his administration , no story is too outlandish to publish .
This story , though , won ’ t have the reaction from most Americans that liberal-leaning media outlets hope it will .
Most Americans expect President Trump to aggressively protect Americans , it ’ s why they voted for him .
Trump is a businessman , not a career politician happy with the status quo .
The public health professionals on the coronavirus task force are working to find a vaccine for the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are aggressive .
Trump plays to win , we all know that .
CureVac is a private company .
It is not state-owned .
The man heading up the vaccine program is an American , Mr. Menichella .
We don ’ t know if an offer was actually made but the company is denying it .
If an offer was made , it would be fine by me .
As far as the concerns of some German officials that the U.S. would selfishly keep the vaccine only for Americans , that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country in the world .
That sort of concern is a slap at Trump , not based on reality .
It ’ s like on the state level in the U.S. when a state ’ s governor aggressively looks to recruit companies to move to his or her state .
When Governor Perry was in office in Texas , he was known for doing that .
Call it poaching or call it anything else you want , it ’ s the job of top leadership to protect the welfare of Americans .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we should all be hoping the Trump administration is doing everything possible to help the research and then the testing process of a vaccine .
It won ’ t help right now but it will next year if it comes back .
Let ’ s not do what happened during the SARS epidemic when a possible vaccine was developed but then was never tested .
Merkel is barely hanging on to her power .
She ’ s not running for re-election .
Germany only partially closed its borders 24 hours ago to help @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Merkel could take a page or two from the U.S. playbook .

Angela Merkel has a whole new reason to be ticked off at President Trump and I couldn’t be happier. Today Merkel’s administration is discussing a report that the Trump administration offered a German company a whole lot of money for research on a COVID-19 vaccine being developed.
The alleged offer was made to CureVac, a private German pharmaceutical company currently working on a vaccine after a March 2 meeting at the White House. Chief executive Daniel Menichella attended a meeting with Vice-President Pence’s coronavirus task force and said, “We are very confident that we will be able to develop a potent vaccine candidate within a few months.” President Trump briefly attended.
Four days ago CureVac announced that Menichella, who is an American, was leaving the company. He headed the company for two years. No reason was given. One of the firm’s founders, Ingmar Hoerr, is succeeding him. Menichella was thanked for his contributions, including starting the coronavirus vaccine program. As word spread from unconfirmed sources, German officials became concerned that the Trump administration was trying to poach valuable research information to monopolize the market.
Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, asked to confirm a report the administration was attempting to secure exclusive rights to any vaccine created by the German biopharmaceutical firm CureVac, said he had “heard from several other members of government today that is the case.” Germany’s Welt am Sonntag newspaper reported Sunday that the administration wanted to secure the rights and move research and development to the United States. The vaccine would be developed “only for the USA,” the newspaper said. Seehofer said the issue would be discussed in Monday’s regular coronavirus crisis committee meeting, which is expected to include representatives of the Health Ministry and Chancellor Angela Merkel’s office.
The newspaper also reported that the German government was making counter-offers to CureVac. The Trump administration isn’t saying much about the report but CureVac isn’t the only company the administration is speaking to about vaccine research and development. They have spoken to more than 25 companies and call the story on CureVac as “wildly overplayed”. “We will continue to talk to any company that claims to be able to help. And any solution found would be shared with the world,” the U.S. official added. The U.S. Ambassador to Germany and the acting director of national intelligence, Richard Grenell, tweeted the report is “not true”. He says that now there is backpedaling from news organizations that ran with the story.
Not true. The Welt story was wrong. But Business Insider, Reuters and others went with it anyway despite not having their own sources. Now everyone is back peddling. https://t.co/88UohluwTj — Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) March 15, 2020
This tweet from CureVac on Monday morning specifically denies the newspaper report.
To make it clear again on coronavirus: CureVac has not received from the US government or related entities an offer before, during and since the Task Force meeting in the White House on March 2. CureVac rejects all allegations from press. — CureVac (@CureVacRNA) March 16, 2020
How much clearer can it get? Let Merkel and her administration get all torqued up if they want to over a story that is false. The main point is that companies are working on a vaccine. If CureVac is receiving counter-offers to an offer that wasn’t even made, so be it. Let the German government give the company an incentive to remain where it is. The German newspaper story used unnamed sources as often happens when a news outlet is running a story that it hopes shows the Trump administration in a bad light. The unnamed sources weren’t even clear if the alleged monetary offer was for the research or for the right to produce the vaccine.
The privately held biotechnology firm has its headquarters in the southwestern city of Tübingen, Germany. It also has an office in Boston, where many of the nation’s leading biotech firms have operations around the Harvard and Massachusetts Institute of Technology campuses. According to the German newspaper Die Welt am Sonntag, which first reported the story on Sunday, Mr. Trump offered CureVac roughly $1 billion in exchange for exclusive access to the vaccine. The newspaper quoted an unnamed German government source who said Mr. Trump wanted the resulting vaccine “only for the United States.” But another German official, reached by The New York Times, said it was unclear whether the administration simply wanted the research work, and for any resulting production to be on American soil.
The New York Times article goes on to state that “the Trump administration has been unusually aggressive in attempting to get American control of companies that deal in technology Mr. Trump views as central to American security.”
Good. I sure hope so. I realize that to the critics of President Trump and his administration, no story is too outlandish to publish. This story, though, won’t have the reaction from most Americans that liberal-leaning media outlets hope it will. Most Americans expect President Trump to aggressively protect Americans, it’s why they voted for him. Trump is a businessman, not a career politician happy with the status quo. The public health professionals on the coronavirus task force are working to find a vaccine for the pandemic. Let’s hope their actions are aggressive.
Trump plays to win, we all know that. CureVac is a private company. It is not state-owned. The man heading up the vaccine program is an American, Mr. Menichella. We don’t know if an offer was actually made but the company is denying it. If an offer was made, it would be fine by me. As far as the concerns of some German officials that the U.S. would selfishly keep the vaccine only for Americans, that’s ridiculous. America is the most generous country in the world. That sort of concern is a slap at Trump, not based on reality.
It’s like on the state level in the U.S. when a state’s governor aggressively looks to recruit companies to move to his or her state. When Governor Perry was in office in Texas, he was known for doing that. Call it poaching or call it anything else you want, it’s the job of top leadership to protect the welfare of Americans. In the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, we should all be hoping the Trump administration is doing everything possible to help the research and then the testing process of a vaccine. It won’t help right now but it will next year if it comes back. Let’s not do what happened during the SARS epidemic when a possible vaccine was developed but then was never tested.
Merkel is barely hanging on to her power. She’s not running for re-election. Germany only partially closed its borders 24 hours ago to help quell the pandemic from entering the country. Merkel could take a page or two from the U.S. playbook.


hotair--2020-03-16--Fox News now aggressively pushing social distancing to fight coronavirus

A noteworthy shift from Friday .
They took heat last week ( from me , among many others ) for the complacency about the crisis being shown by some hosts .
Not all hosts : Tucker Carlson , for instance , has not only been warning viewers that this is much more serious than the flu , he reportedly went to Mar-a-Lago personally to try to convince Trump that the situation is dire .
But Ainsley Earhardt and Laura Ingraham each assured people in the last few days that flying ’ s just fine if you ’ re not in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ re all vectors for the at-risk population — and Jerry Falwell Jr was heard mumbling something on air about how this is probably a North Korean bioweapon but we shouldn ’ t “ overreact ” to it .
Today the message is different .
A la Anthony Fauci , Fox viewers are now being told that overreaction is better than underreaction .
Watch Dr. Nicole Saphier make the point in a panel discussion with two other MDs this morning : Saphier has been all over the network today .
She was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Then she joined Harris Faulkner and Marc Siegel for a special Q & A on coronavirus in an “ overtime ” episode of the show .
Earlier she turned up at the “ Fox & Friends ” anchor desk ( ! )
, seemingly as a substitute for Earhardt , to help guide the discussion as Newt Gingrich relayed his observations of how bad the situation is in Italy .
Yesterday she was online fact-checking trusted MAGA sources like Devin Nunes when they took to offering terrible , idiotic advice : I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the air this week and in the next few weeks is as heavy as it was today , including in primetime , to try to undo weeks of “ everything ’ s under control ” messaging from Trump .
The president ’ s political interests and the public health interest have now finally aligned , making emphatic messaging about countermeasures an easy call for his favorite network .
It ’ s not just good medical advice to act now , today , to try to slow down the spread of this disease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Trump surely understands at this point that a second term depends on a relatively successful resolution to the epidemic and ensuing economic recovery .
The more Fox viewers carry on with business as usual , the less successful that resolution is going to be .
For his sake , and of course for their own sake ( especially given the average age of Fox-watchers ) , it ’ s distancing time .
We ’ ll see how Hannity and Ingraham play it tonight at 9 .
It ’ s not just Fox @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago , Rush Limbaugh was still comparing COVID-19 to the common cold .
It isn ’ t , and it especially isn ’ t for a 69-year-old man whose immune system is battling what Rush ’ s is battling right now .
Today guest host Mark Steyn apparently reality-checked listeners : Even Trump himself sounded much different about the virus than he did a few weeks ago when he answered some questions about it this afternoon : Dave Wasserman tweeted yesterday , “ Until the president himself treats this as a public health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ – and emphasizes staying home , as many GOP govs have done – Americans who trust him are not going to take social distancing seriously , with potentially catastrophic implications.
” He ’ s treating it as a health crisis now .
So is Fox , more so than ever .

A noteworthy shift from Friday. They took heat last week (from me, among many others) for the complacency about the crisis being shown by some hosts. Not all hosts: Tucker Carlson, for instance, has not only been warning viewers that this is much more serious than the flu, he reportedly went to Mar-a-Lago personally to try to convince Trump that the situation is dire. But Ainsley Earhardt and Laura Ingraham each assured people in the last few days that flying’s just fine if you’re not in “at-risk” population — even though we’re all vectors for the at-risk population — and Jerry Falwell Jr was heard mumbling something on air about how this is probably a North Korean bioweapon but we shouldn’t “overreact” to it.
Today the message is different. A la Anthony Fauci, Fox viewers are now being told that overreaction is better than underreaction. Watch Dr. Nicole Saphier make the point in a panel discussion with two other MDs this morning:
Saphier has been all over the network today. She was a guest on the show above. Then she joined Harris Faulkner and Marc Siegel for a special Q&A on coronavirus in an “overtime” episode of the show. Earlier she turned up at the “Fox & Friends” anchor desk(!), seemingly as a substitute for Earhardt, to help guide the discussion as Newt Gingrich relayed his observations of how bad the situation is in Italy.
Yesterday she was online fact-checking trusted MAGA sources like Devin Nunes when they took to offering terrible, idiotic advice:
I’m curious to see if her presence on the air this week and in the next few weeks is as heavy as it was today, including in primetime, to try to undo weeks of “everything’s under control” messaging from Trump. The president’s political interests and the public health interest have now finally aligned, making emphatic messaging about countermeasures an easy call for his favorite network. It’s not just good medical advice to act now, today, to try to slow down the spread of this disease, it’s good political advice. Trump surely understands at this point that a second term depends on a relatively successful resolution to the epidemic and ensuing economic recovery. The more Fox viewers carry on with business as usual, the less successful that resolution is going to be. For his sake, and of course for their own sake (especially given the average age of Fox-watchers), it’s distancing time. We’ll see how Hannity and Ingraham play it tonight at 9.
It’s not just Fox either. As recently as five days ago, Rush Limbaugh was still comparing COVID-19 to the common cold. It isn’t, and it especially isn’t for a 69-year-old man whose immune system is battling what Rush’s is battling right now. Today guest host Mark Steyn apparently reality-checked listeners:
Limbaugh isn't broadcasting today. His guest host, Mark Steyn, issues a wake-up call to the audience on the dangers of coronavirus: "If you don't believe me on this, Trump's surgeon general said we're 2 weeks behind Italy." — Jeremy W. Peters (@jwpetersNYT) March 16, 2020
Even Trump himself sounded much different about the virus than he did a few weeks ago when he answered some questions about it this afternoon:
Dave Wasserman tweeted yesterday, “Until the president himself treats this as a public health crisis & not just an economic one – and emphasizes staying home, as many GOP govs have done – Americans who trust him are not going to take social distancing seriously, with potentially catastrophic implications.” He’s treating it as a health crisis now. So is Fox, more so than ever.


hotair--2020-03-17--Iranian state TV: If people don't follow guidance '3.5 million people will die'

A week ago a piece in the Atlantic argued that the actual number of infections in Iran could be far higher than the official numbers claimed .
A subsequent report in the Washington Post revealed that in the city of Qom , which is where the infection got started in Iran , burial pits were being dug that were so large they could be seen from space .
Today , Iranian state television issued a dire warning from a medical doctor : If people don ’ t comply with health advisories , millions will die .
In announcing the new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Dr. Afruz Eslami , cited a study by Tehran ’ s prestigious Sharif University of Technology , which offered three scenarios : If people cooperate fully now , Iran will see 120,000 infections and 12,000 deaths before the outbreak is over ; if they offer medium cooperation , there will be 300,000 cases and 110,000 deaths .
But if people fail to follow any guidance , it could collapse Iran ’ s already-strained medical system , Eslami said .
If the “ medical facilities are not sufficient , there will be 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will die , ” she said .
Eslami did not elaborate on what metrics the study used , but even reporting it on Iran ’ s tightly controlled state media represented a major change for a country whose officials had for days denied the severity of the crisis .
That last figure is probably an exaggeration but the fact that state TV is going this far suggests Iran is getting very worried about the situation .
There may be very good reason for that .
Today , Time magazine reports on word leaking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is already over-stressed .
“ My uncle , who is a doctor , called me in tears from his hospital saying that he can ’ t cope anymore , ” a laboratory scientist working at one of five public hospitals in Qom , told TIME by phone on March 14 .
Protective gear was lacking during the first phase of the crisis , she said , “ so much so that for the first week the doctors and nurses only used regular masks—no gloves , no gowns , nothing else.
” … “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That ’ s the case in all of our hospitals in Qom , ” said the laboratory assistant .
Like other medics TIME interviewed , she asked to remain anonymous so she could speak freely , alleging that Iranian authorities are tapping some hospital staffers ’ phones… Officially , COVID-19 has now sickened almost 15,000 Iranians , but medical staff in Tehran say those numbers are a significant underestimate .
“ There is absolutely no doubt that the number of sick people is much higher , ” a pulmonologist at one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told TIME on his return to work from two weeks in self-quarantine after contracting the disease from a patient .
“ Realistically , at this point , you need to change the reported sick cases to 1 million.
” Despite all of this bad news , many in Iran continue to behave as if there is nothing to worry about .
This image shows a bazaar in Tehran .
The NY Times reports the situation in Iran has been a disaster in part because the Rouhani government has been in an ongoing battle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the spread of the virus .
In a closed meeting on Friday , the two sides clashed on strategy , according to four people with knowledge of the meeting .
Mr. Rouhani demanded that the armed forces adhere to his command .
The generals refused and said Mr. Khamenei had authorized them to act independently… Apparently ignoring Mr. Rouhani , General Bagheri said on Friday that the military would severely restrict traffic , close businesses and clear people off the streets in Tehran and at least 11 provinces .
He said volunteers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every Iranian household to identify potentially infected patients and set up field hospitals for screening and treatment .
Barely two days later , Mr. Rouhani said there would be no shutting of cities , no lockdowns , no forced closure of businesses .
“ This rumor that in Tehran or other cities businesses and shops will be quarantined is not happening , ” Mr. Rouhani said .
He also berated governors who had sounded alarms that their provinces should be cordoned off .
Finally , in addition to the ongoing battle over who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a religious component of this that has proven difficult to manage .
Qom , where the virus first spread , is a spiritual center in Iran .
Last week Ayatollah Khamenei belatedly order two major shrines in Qom to be shut down to prevent the spread of the virus .
Those shrines were blocked off Monday , but by Monday night religious hardliners broke through the barricades and clashed with security .
All of this is apparently being organized/encouraged by religious leaders who are telling people the WHO can ’ t be trusted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even the Ayatollah can ’ t close shrines .
I very much doubt the word of a doctor on TV is going to change things .

A week ago a piece in the Atlantic argued that the actual number of infections in Iran could be far higher than the official numbers claimed. A subsequent report in the Washington Post revealed that in the city of Qom, which is where the infection got started in Iran, burial pits were being dug that were so large they could be seen from space. Today, Iranian state television issued a dire warning from a medical doctor: If people don’t comply with health advisories, millions will die.
In announcing the new warning, the Iranian state TV journalist, Dr. Afruz Eslami, cited a study by Tehran’s prestigious Sharif University of Technology, which offered three scenarios: If people cooperate fully now, Iran will see 120,000 infections and 12,000 deaths before the outbreak is over; if they offer medium cooperation, there will be 300,000 cases and 110,000 deaths. But if people fail to follow any guidance, it could collapse Iran’s already-strained medical system, Eslami said. If the “medical facilities are not sufficient, there will be 4 million cases, and 3.5 million people will die,” she said. Eslami did not elaborate on what metrics the study used, but even reporting it on Iran’s tightly controlled state media represented a major change for a country whose officials had for days denied the severity of the crisis.
That last figure is probably an exaggeration but the fact that state TV is going this far suggests Iran is getting very worried about the situation. There may be very good reason for that. Today, Time magazine reports on word leaking out from Iran that the medical system is already over-stressed.
“My uncle, who is a doctor, called me in tears from his hospital saying that he can’t cope anymore,” a laboratory scientist working at one of five public hospitals in Qom, told TIME by phone on March 14. Protective gear was lacking during the first phase of the crisis, she said, “so much so that for the first week the doctors and nurses only used regular masks—no gloves, no gowns, nothing else.”… “People are dying left and right here. That’s the case in all of our hospitals in Qom,” said the laboratory assistant. Like other medics TIME interviewed, she asked to remain anonymous so she could speak freely, alleging that Iranian authorities are tapping some hospital staffers’ phones… Officially, COVID-19 has now sickened almost 15,000 Iranians, but medical staff in Tehran say those numbers are a significant underestimate. “There is absolutely no doubt that the number of sick people is much higher,” a pulmonologist at one of the capital’s leading private hospitals told TIME on his return to work from two weeks in self-quarantine after contracting the disease from a patient. “Realistically, at this point, you need to change the reported sick cases to 1 million.”
Despite all of this bad news, many in Iran continue to behave as if there is nothing to worry about. This image shows a bazaar in Tehran.
اين عكس دقيقا امروز است، بله امروز، از بازار بزرگ تهران و واقعيتش من حتى ذره‌ای هم این مردم را مقصر نمی‌دانم.
این کارنامه شکست همه سیاست ها و شعارها و برنامه‌های ستاد ملی #کرونا و دولت روحانی در مقابله با کرونا است .#كرونا_ما_را_شکست_میدهد pic.twitter.com/b0cUdzlqPn — سيامک قاسمى (@SiamakGhassemi) March 17, 2020
The NY Times reports the situation in Iran has been a disaster in part because the Rouhani government has been in an ongoing battle with the military over how to respond to the spread of the virus.
In a closed meeting on Friday, the two sides clashed on strategy, according to four people with knowledge of the meeting. Mr. Rouhani demanded that the armed forces adhere to his command. The generals refused and said Mr. Khamenei had authorized them to act independently… Apparently ignoring Mr. Rouhani, General Bagheri said on Friday that the military would severely restrict traffic, close businesses and clear people off the streets in Tehran and at least 11 provinces. He said volunteers attached to the armed forces would survey every Iranian household to identify potentially infected patients and set up field hospitals for screening and treatment. Barely two days later, Mr. Rouhani said there would be no shutting of cities, no lockdowns, no forced closure of businesses. “This rumor that in Tehran or other cities businesses and shops will be quarantined is not happening,” Mr. Rouhani said. He also berated governors who had sounded alarms that their provinces should be cordoned off.
Finally, in addition to the ongoing battle over who is in charge, there is also a religious component of this that has proven difficult to manage. Qom, where the virus first spread, is a spiritual center in Iran. Last week Ayatollah Khamenei belatedly order two major shrines in Qom to be shut down to prevent the spread of the virus. Those shrines were blocked off Monday, but by Monday night religious hardliners broke through the barricades and clashed with security.
At least 25 people arrested (more to come) following clashes btw police and protesters in holy cities of Qom and Mashhad last night. Protesters were angry by seeing the closure of the shrines. They argue shrines must remain open, those fearful of spread of Covid19 don’t visit’em pic.twitter.com/ijNh01MW84 — Fereshteh Sadeghi فرشته صادقی (@fresh_sadegh) March 17, 2020
Iran finally shuts down Shia shrines today as coronavirus peaked in those cities.
Mobs of ultra hardliners break the doors in Mashhad & Qom, bypass the police & storm the shrines.
This appears organized.#کرونا https://t.co/ktb95Nezv9 — Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) March 16, 2020
3/ Mobs in Mashhad storming closed shrines clash with security forces trying to stop them.
Today the governor of Mashhad called for Rouhani to quarantine the city because of critical number of infected & dead from coronavirus. Rouhani has so far refused restriction on movement. pic.twitter.com/8JBYhh48Ws — Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) March 16, 2020
All of this is apparently being organized/encouraged by religious leaders who are telling people the WHO can’t be trusted because they are Jews.
WATCH: “coronavirus antisemitism” Cleric in Qom, Iran (Covid-19 epicenter in Iran) is angry a shrine is closed and addresses a crowd. He says they shouldn’t follow @WHO, as they are a bunch of infidels and Jews! ✡ pic.twitter.com/nZuZkb0XWn — Sia Kordestani 🦁 (@SiaKordestani) March 17, 2020
In Iran, even the Ayatollah can’t close shrines. I very much doubt the word of a doctor on TV is going to change things.


hotair--2020-03-17--The argument against curfews and shelter orders

I should point out up front that this isn ’ t my argument against curfews and related government mandates involving forced social distancing .
It ’ s coming from Matt Welch at Reason .
But by the time I finished reading it , I was once again experiencing this teeter-totter of emotions and reactions that ’ s become all too familiar lately .
I know I can ’ t be the only one that ’ s been going through this , but I ’ d never yet taken the time to fully spell it out and see if any of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
First , however , let ’ s give the floor briefly to Matt .
Being a Big L Libertarian , he ’ s been observing the increasingly alarming restrictions being placed on persons and private businesses in response to the coronavirus and let ’ s just say he ’ s less than thrilled .
Imposing curfews , as many cities have , or even shelter in place orders such as the one currently attempting to lock down the San Francisco Bay area , is a bridge too far for Matt .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fairly wide libertarian streak myself when it comes to small-government issues , I can definitely sympathize with what he ’ s saying here .
But on top of that , he argues that many of these prohibitions aren ’ t even practical in achieving the desired goals .
1 ) Shutting most everything down creates real shortages , not just the no-toilet-paper-at-Whole-Foods kind .
The more people and industries you order locked down , the more supply chains get broken , the more stores shutter , the fewer goods are available .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ re sitting indoors all day .
And in cramped , big cities like New York , where living space is at a premium , there is frequently neither storage space nor predilection for stocking up on weeks ’ worth of food at a time .
2 ) Compressing the commercial day will mean more people shopping together in close quarters .
The smart play until now among germaphobes has been hitting up the local Rite Aid in the wee small hours .
Mayors , county executives , and governors are increasingly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do not have a limitless capacity for self-imprisonment .
We are about to see a lot of resentment from the healthy Youngs about how they no longer have jobs or the ability to make student loan payments because of draconian governmental measures to combat a disease disproportionately affecting the Olds .
But even setting that aside , in the absence of V-1 bombs flying overhead , people are eventually going to bust out of their containment .
Setting up legal regimes in contravention of human nature is a recipe for all kinds of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that out to conserve space , but I think you get the drift .
( Read the entire thing anyway .
He ’ s always worth it . )
Now let me get to that conundrum I mentioned at the top .
Right from the beginning , I knew ( or at least suspected ) that the virus was bad .
I mean , that was just a given , right ?
It spreads quickly and easily .
Even for younger and relatively healthy people , it can sometimes sicken them for weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with compromised systems , it can sometimes kill us .
So it certainly wasn ’ t good .
But how bad exactly was it ?
Was this really Captain Trips , preparing to take down the entire system and leave us in some sort of Mad Max landscape if we didn ’ t take the most draconian precautions imaginable ?
Or , I wondered , is it possible that it ’ s not really even close to that and would wind up being something more like the flu ?
What if what we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nervous politicians who were terrified that they would take the fall if they failed to act swiftly and aggressively enough in the early days and then everything went down the crapper ?
Could they be overreacting and putting us through all of this garbage for no good reason ?
In my darker moments , I would sometimes start listening to those voices who are always out there whispering .
I would briefly slip down a rabbit hole where people spoke of Wall Street investors who were in the know and got out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back in after it crashed and then ride a wave of profits through a revolving door as the Dow Jones turned into a roller coaster on steroids .
But then I ’ m always forced to stop and look at things like the most recent Imperial College report .
Allahpundit described in somewhat understated tones by saying… it isn ’ t good .
And it ’ s not .
Even their best-case scenario is something of a horror show .
Has anyone else been experiencing this ?
My inner libertarian chafes at seeing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in their homes and shutting down private businesses .
We deserve to live free !
But what if the current reality is turning into a modified version of New Hampshire ’ s state motto ?
What if we ’ re reaching the point of “ Live Free and Die ?
” Perhaps that ’ s an easier trade to make if you ’ re one of “ the Youngs , ” as Matt calls them .
But it ’ s a bit more of a pill to swallow if you ’ re one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ve written quite a few articles here lately about the coming debate over the limits of executive power during a period of crisis .
And those are important discussions to have going forward .
But we ’ re standing on the tracks seeing a light at the end of the tunnel right now , and our lofty libertarian principles won ’ t be as much consolation if it turns out to be the headlamp of an oncoming train instead of open-air and sunshine .
Your thoughts on this are welcome .
I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ COVID-19 will turn out to be a complete nothingburger .
But it ’ s still impossible to say that it ’ s the end of the world if we don ’ t hamstring our economy and the normal ebb and flow of society .
It ’ s all very stressful and I ’ m not finding any certainty in either side of this debate .

I should point out up front that this isn’t my argument against curfews and related government mandates involving forced social distancing. It’s coming from Matt Welch at Reason. But by the time I finished reading it, I was once again experiencing this teeter-totter of emotions and reactions that’s become all too familiar lately. I know I can’t be the only one that’s been going through this, but I’d never yet taken the time to fully spell it out and see if any of our readers have been through something similar.
First, however, let’s give the floor briefly to Matt. Being a Big L Libertarian, he’s been observing the increasingly alarming restrictions being placed on persons and private businesses in response to the coronavirus and let’s just say he’s less than thrilled. Imposing curfews, as many cities have, or even shelter in place orders such as the one currently attempting to lock down the San Francisco Bay area, is a bridge too far for Matt. And since I’ve long had a fairly wide libertarian streak myself when it comes to small-government issues, I can definitely sympathize with what he’s saying here. But on top of that, he argues that many of these prohibitions aren’t even practical in achieving the desired goals.
1) Shutting most everything down creates real shortages, not just the no-toilet-paper-at-Whole-Foods kind. The more people and industries you order locked down, the more supply chains get broken, the more stores shutter, the fewer goods are available. We all still need stuff, even if we’re sitting indoors all day. And in cramped, big cities like New York, where living space is at a premium, there is frequently neither storage space nor predilection for stocking up on weeks’ worth of food at a time. 2) Compressing the commercial day will mean more people shopping together in close quarters. The smart play until now among germaphobes has been hitting up the local Rite Aid in the wee small hours. Mayors, county executives, and governors are increasingly foreclosing that option… 4) Human beings do not have a limitless capacity for self-imprisonment. We are about to see a lot of resentment from the healthy Youngs about how they no longer have jobs or the ability to make student loan payments because of draconian governmental measures to combat a disease disproportionately affecting the Olds. But even setting that aside, in the absence of V-1 bombs flying overhead, people are eventually going to bust out of their containment. Setting up legal regimes in contravention of human nature is a recipe for all kinds of trouble.
I trimmed a bit of that out to conserve space, but I think you get the drift. (Read the entire thing anyway. He’s always worth it.) Now let me get to that conundrum I mentioned at the top.
Right from the beginning, I knew (or at least suspected) that the virus was bad. I mean, that was just a given, right? It spreads quickly and easily. Even for younger and relatively healthy people, it can sometimes sicken them for weeks. For the older folks and/or those with compromised systems, it can sometimes kill us. So it certainly wasn’t good.
But how bad exactly was it? Was this really Captain Trips, preparing to take down the entire system and leave us in some sort of Mad Max landscape if we didn’t take the most draconian precautions imaginable? Or, I wondered, is it possible that it’s not really even close to that and would wind up being something more like the flu? What if what we were really seeing was a gaggle of nervous politicians who were terrified that they would take the fall if they failed to act swiftly and aggressively enough in the early days and then everything went down the crapper? Could they be overreacting and putting us through all of this garbage for no good reason?
In my darker moments, I would sometimes start listening to those voices who are always out there whispering. I would briefly slip down a rabbit hole where people spoke of Wall Street investors who were in the know and got out of the market early, only to jump back in after it crashed and then ride a wave of profits through a revolving door as the Dow Jones turned into a roller coaster on steroids.
But then I’m always forced to stop and look at things like the most recent Imperial College report. Allahpundit described in somewhat understated tones by saying… it isn’t good. And it’s not. Even their best-case scenario is something of a horror show.
Has anyone else been experiencing this? My inner libertarian chafes at seeing the government trying to lock innocent people in their homes and shutting down private businesses. We deserve to live free! But what if the current reality is turning into a modified version of New Hampshire’s state motto? What if we’re reaching the point of “Live Free and Die?” Perhaps that’s an easier trade to make if you’re one of “the Youngs,” as Matt calls them. But it’s a bit more of a pill to swallow if you’re one of “the Olds.”
I’ve written quite a few articles here lately about the coming debate over the limits of executive power during a period of crisis. And those are important discussions to have going forward. But we’re standing on the tracks seeing a light at the end of the tunnel right now, and our lofty libertarian principles won’t be as much consolation if it turns out to be the headlamp of an oncoming train instead of open-air and sunshine.
Your thoughts on this are welcome. I’m past the point of believing that COVID-19 will turn out to be a complete nothingburger. But it’s still impossible to say that it’s the end of the world if we don’t hamstring our economy and the normal ebb and flow of society. It’s all very stressful and I’m not finding any certainty in either side of this debate.


hotair--2020-03-17--Fauci: Young people, we can't do this without you

I prefer to believe that many young adults continue to socialize despite people pleading with them not to because they ’ re selfish and callous , not stupid .
It can ’ t be that under-40s are collectively so idiotic that they can ’ t grasp how putting themselves at risk means putting more vulnerable people at risk too .
It ’ s a family tree in reverse : You get the disease , you pass it up to mom and dad , they pass it up to grandma and grandpa .
Or you pass it to grandma and grandpa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Or you pass it to your friend and they pass it up along their own family tree .
Every single infection opens pathways for thousands more infections , some of which will inevitably land on the elderly , the chronically ill , and the immunocompromised .
That ’ s the magic of exponential growth .
Question : How much less vulnerable are the young compared to the old ?
If you ’ re looking only at the death rate , considerably less vulnerable .
Of the first 100 reported fatalities [ from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people appear to have had underlying health conditions , making it harder for their bodies to fight off covid-19 , the disease caused by the novel coronavirus .
Some had diabetes , kidney failure , hypertension or pulmonary ailments .
Nearly all — about 85 percent — were older than 60 , and about 45 percent were older than 80 .
It ’ s unclear how some of them contracted the disease , but more than a third were living in residential care facilities when they became ill .
If you ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your odds of surviving are very good .
Your odds of avoiding a trip to the hospital , however , aren ’ t as good .
While 38 percent of patients in Italy have been over 70 , 37 percent have been in their 50s and 60s , according to a study published Tuesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association .
About a quarter are adults younger than age 50… “ In Italy , we ’ re seeing a lot of younger adults get very sick , ” Dr. Peter Hotez @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Development at Texas Children ’ s Hospital and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston , told NBC News… In France , health officials said more than half of the country ’ s 300 patients in intensive care units are under 60 , The Associated Press reported… At Holy Name Medical Center in Teaneck , New Jersey , most of the hospitalized coronavirus patients are younger than 65 .
There may be complicated reasons for all that .
It may be that older patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the ICU , leaving a youth-heavy population of survivors .
Just because the share of 50somethings and 60somethings in Italy is about the same as the share of 70somethings under treatment doesn ’ t mean that their symptoms are as severe .
Meanwhile , all but one of the New Jersey patients had some underlying health condition , be it heart trouble , diabetes , or obesity .
But … so what ?
Lots of young Americans have those same conditions or know someone who does .
They ’ re at risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who ’ s suddenly become famous on Twitter was posting memes like this , goofing on the media for supposedly cheerleading the coronavirus spread : That guy was able to get the treatment he needs because hospitals aren ’ t crowded right now .
What if he showed up at the ER next month ?
Young people aren ’ t free and clear here , even if their risk is lower than their parents ’ .
The WSJ says America is about to fight a “ generational war ” : Across Europe , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than in the U.S. , a divide is spreading between the young , many of whom say they don ’ t fear the virus , and their elders , including politicians and scientists , whose alarm about the illness is growing by the day .
In Berlin , a European clubbing hot spot , authorities ordered the closure of all bars and clubs on Saturday .
Yet many establishments ignored the decree , forcing police to forcibly shut down some 63 establishments across the city .
That night , the Ernst basement bar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ packed with patrons enjoying loud electronica .
“ Beware : Coronavirus ” was sprayed on a bench near the entrance .
Inside the stylish Wagemut cocktail bar , a young woman pretended to sneeze in someone ’ s face , unleashing thunderous laughter .
Health officials in Berlin believe 42 people got infected in clubs that weren ’ t supposed to be operating .
Some people take precautions early , some people do not .
Watch the video below , which I almost can ’ t believe is real , to see how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ setting .
And read this new op-ed at the Times co-authored by three doctors about what the battle against coronavirus might look like over the next 18 months , until a vaccine is available .
This morning I asked the question of what the endgame is in containing the disease ; these three think we ’ ll have little choice but to flatten the curve repeatedly with aggressive social distancing measures .
We shut down for a month or two , then we come back online for awhile , then we shut down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disease begins to spread aggressively .
We ’ ll be riding a roller coaster , they think .
To which I say : If you can ’ t convince people to self-isolate now , when the threat is unknown and at its most frightening , how are you going to get them to do it a second , third , or fourth time ?

Alternate headline: “We can’t do this.”
Dr. Fauci re-emphasizes point made by Dr. Birx about essential role for younger folks in stopping spread of Covid-19. "I know you don't want to do that, you don't want to put your loved ones at risk." pic.twitter.com/vmka1MfZmL — Caleb Howe (@CalebHowe) March 17, 2020
I prefer to believe that many young adults continue to socialize despite people pleading with them not to because they’re selfish and callous, not stupid. It can’t be that under-40s are collectively so idiotic that they can’t grasp how putting themselves at risk means putting more vulnerable people at risk too. It’s a family tree in reverse: You get the disease, you pass it up to mom and dad, they pass it up to grandma and grandpa. Or you pass it to grandma and grandpa yourself when you visit for Sunday dinner. Or you pass it to your friend and they pass it up along their own family tree.
Every single infection opens pathways for thousands more infections, some of which will inevitably land on the elderly, the chronically ill, and the immunocompromised. That’s the magic of exponential growth.
Question: How much less vulnerable are the young compared to the old? If you’re looking only at the death rate, considerably less vulnerable.
Of the first 100 reported fatalities [from coronavirus in the U.S.], many people appear to have had underlying health conditions, making it harder for their bodies to fight off covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. Some had diabetes, kidney failure, hypertension or pulmonary ailments. Nearly all — about 85 percent — were older than 60, and about 45 percent were older than 80. It’s unclear how some of them contracted the disease, but more than a third were living in residential care facilities when they became ill.
If you’re under 60 and in good health, your odds of surviving are very good. Your odds of avoiding a trip to the hospital, however, aren’t as good.
While 38 percent of patients in Italy have been over 70, 37 percent have been in their 50s and 60s, according to a study published Tuesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association. About a quarter are adults younger than age 50… “In Italy, we’re seeing a lot of younger adults get very sick,” Dr. Peter Hotez, co-director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, told NBC News… In France, health officials said more than half of the country’s 300 patients in intensive care units are under 60, The Associated Press reported… At Holy Name Medical Center in Teaneck, New Jersey, most of the hospitalized coronavirus patients are younger than 65.
There may be complicated reasons for all that. It may be that older patients in France are dying off more quickly in the ICU, leaving a youth-heavy population of survivors. Just because the share of 50somethings and 60somethings in Italy is about the same as the share of 70somethings under treatment doesn’t mean that their symptoms are as severe. Meanwhile, all but one of the New Jersey patients had some underlying health condition, be it heart trouble, diabetes, or obesity.
But … so what? Lots of young Americans have those same conditions or know someone who does. They’re at risk. A week ago a 39-year-old guy who’s suddenly become famous on Twitter was posting memes like this, goofing on the media for supposedly cheerleading the coronavirus spread:
A week later:
I have it. Don’t sleep on this thing people. I’m a very healthy type I diabetic. My body is fighting it very well but it’s kicking my ass. Don’t be a moron. Stay home! pic.twitter.com/X0Lb2FYE6z — Justin Wilhite (@jwdaddy80) March 17, 2020
That guy was able to get the treatment he needs because hospitals aren’t crowded right now. What if he showed up at the ER next month? Young people aren’t free and clear here, even if their risk is lower than their parents’.
The WSJ says America is about to fight a “generational war”:
Across Europe, where social life is shutting down faster than in the U.S., a divide is spreading between the young, many of whom say they don’t fear the virus, and their elders, including politicians and scientists, whose alarm about the illness is growing by the day. In Berlin, a European clubbing hot spot, authorities ordered the closure of all bars and clubs on Saturday. Yet many establishments ignored the decree, forcing police to forcibly shut down some 63 establishments across the city. That night, the Ernst basement bar in the trendy district of Kreuzberg was packed with patrons enjoying loud electronica. “Beware: Coronavirus” was sprayed on a bench near the entrance. Inside the stylish Wagemut cocktail bar, a young woman pretended to sneeze in someone’s face, unleashing thunderous laughter.
Health officials in Berlin believe 42 people got infected in clubs that weren’t supposed to be operating.
Some people take precautions early, some people do not. Watch the video below, which I almost can’t believe is real, to see how that reality plays out in a different setting. And read this new op-ed at the Times co-authored by three doctors about what the battle against coronavirus might look like over the next 18 months, until a vaccine is available. This morning I asked the question of what the endgame is in containing the disease; these three think we’ll have little choice but to flatten the curve repeatedly with aggressive social distancing measures. We shut down for a month or two, then we come back online for awhile, then we shut down again a few months later as the disease begins to spread aggressively. We’ll be riding a roller coaster, they think. To which I say: If you can’t convince people to self-isolate now, when the threat is unknown and at its most frightening, how are you going to get them to do it a second, third, or fourth time?


hotair--2020-03-17--Trump: You're damned right I called the code red on the "Chinese virus"

Of all the complaints about the Trump administration ’ s response to the coronavirus pandemic , griping about accurately noting its origin is easily the dumbest .
The offensensitivity over the use of “ Wuhan virus ” or “ Chinese virus ” has skyrocketed lately , to the point where people are accused of racism for using a standard identification for epidemiological events .
They didn ’ t call it the “ Spanish flu ” for decades after the 1918 pandemic because of racism , and “ Wuhan ” or “ China ” in this instance is even more accurate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remember the West Nile virus , or that MERS stood for Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome ?
One reporter asked Donald Trump to address complaints over attaching a “ stigma ” to China by his use of the term at today ’ s presser .
Trump fired back that China ’ s attempts to push a conspiracy theory about the US military as a source for the flu is the stigma that he intends to answer by this use : Let ’ s also not forget that the government of China is a large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today .
“ We are in this crisis , ” Jim Geraghty wrote at National Review yesterday , “ because of the decisions of the Chinese government.
” Identifying them as the problem isn ’ t racist , it ’ s realistic : As a country , we ’ ve got our hands full right now .
But while we ’ re sitting in various forms of self-quarantine , we — and a lot of other people around the world — will have a lot of time to read about the Chinese government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus in December… And the Chinese government ’ s attempt to silence doctors warning others about the disease .
… And the Chinese authorities spending January “ denying it could spread between humans — something doctors had known was happening since late December — and went ahead with a Chinese Lunar New Year banquet involving tens of thousands of families in Wuhan.
” Doctors say that in Wuhan , people who had no connection to that Hua ’ nan market were among the first showing the symptoms — suggesting that from the beginning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ human-to-human transmission was already happening .
… Even today , prominent Chinese citizens who criticize the government ’ s response suddenly disappear .
The Chinese government is much more effective at stopping the spread of information about the coronavirus than stopping the spread of the coronavirus .
Pardon me , the “ Wuhan virus.
” Andrew McCarthy argued earlier today in The Hill that Trump not only had a common sense reason for designating the virus as Wuhan or Chinese flu , but also a legal reason .
Federal authority to deal with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ duty to defend the nation ’ s borders , and that means clarity is necessary when shutting down travel : Amid the truly weighty concerns attendant to the COVID-19 pandemic , the silly season , of course , broke out in Washington : A debate over whether the infectious disease in question should be referred to as the “ Wuhan coronavirus ” or whether doing so is , as the anti-Trump left and its media megaphone allege , emblematic of racism .
The manufactured controversy is as transparently political as it is ill-conceived @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s source is being framed to imply Trumpist xenophobia .
To the contrary , it is a relevant consideration in the federal government ’ s legal authority to respond .
Early this year , as the outbreak became manifest in China and began its relentless march through Southeast Asia and into Europe , the American press itself alluded incessantly to the Wuhan coronavirus .
The sudden case of talking-head amnesia over this is being greeted in conservative media by hilarious video montages featuring the same scolds , who now decry the term , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , when is the invocation of emergency powers permissible ?
Congress has vested the president with this authority when a threat to the security and public health of any part of the United States is sufficiently grave to warrant a federal response .
In our constitutional system , there are certain situations and categories of activity that automatically trigger federal authority .
Most prominent among these are foreign relations , foreign incursions , border security , and matters related to foreign commerce , as well as commerce between the states — which , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ commerce .
Consequently , the origination of the virus in China and its transcontinental spread across the globe are highly relevant .
They rationalize the president ’ s authority to address the emergency with Washington ’ s awesome resources .
… Not only did history and common sense justify the administration ( among others ) in noting the origin of the Wuhan coronavirus .
Doing so was a legal necessity if the imperative of federal support for beleaguered state governments was to be fulfilled .
This would be a silly exercise in political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are being instructed , if not ordered , to shelter in place for weeks on end , it ’ s an active insult to our intelligence and offensive on its face .
The rest of us are having to put on our big-boy and big-girl pants and inflict economic damage on ourselves .
Anyone offended by the term Wuhan Flu , WuFlu , or Chinese virus needs to go soak their head , preferably in distilled water .
Addendum : I ’ d say that government officials should refrain from making joking references @ @ @ @ @ @ @ however — not because it ’ s offensive , but because it sounds unserious and undermines credibility .

Of all the complaints about the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, griping about accurately noting its origin is easily the dumbest. The offensensitivity over the use of “Wuhan virus” or “Chinese virus” has skyrocketed lately, to the point where people are accused of racism for using a standard identification for epidemiological events. They didn’t call it the “Spanish flu” for decades after the 1918 pandemic because of racism, and “Wuhan” or “China” in this instance is even more accurate than “Spanish flu.” Does anyone remember the West Nile virus, or that MERS stood for Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome?
One reporter asked Donald Trump to address complaints over attaching a “stigma” to China by his use of the term at today’s presser. Trump fired back that China’s attempts to push a conspiracy theory about the US military as a source for the flu is the stigma that he intends to answer by this use:
Let’s also not forget that the government of China is a large part of the problem that we face today. “We are in this crisis,” Jim Geraghty wrote at National Review yesterday, “because of the decisions of the Chinese government.” Identifying them as the problem isn’t racist, it’s realistic:
As a country, we’ve got our hands full right now. But while we’re sitting in various forms of self-quarantine, we — and a lot of other people around the world — will have a lot of time to read about the Chinese government destroying samples and suppressing information about the coronavirus in December… And the Chinese government’s attempt to silence doctors warning others about the disease. … And the Chinese authorities spending January “denying it could spread between humans — something doctors had known was happening since late December — and went ahead with a Chinese Lunar New Year banquet involving tens of thousands of families in Wuhan.” Doctors say that in Wuhan, people who had no connection to that Hua’nan market were among the first showing the symptoms — suggesting that from the beginning, Chinese authorities should have understood that human-to-human transmission was already happening. … Even today, prominent Chinese citizens who criticize the government’s response suddenly disappear. The Chinese government is much more effective at stopping the spread of information about the coronavirus than stopping the spread of the coronavirus. Pardon me, the “Wuhan virus.”
Andrew McCarthy argued earlier today in The Hill that Trump not only had a common sense reason for designating the virus as Wuhan or Chinese flu, but also a legal reason. Federal authority to deal with the virus extends in part from its duty to defend the nation’s borders, and that means clarity is necessary when shutting down travel:
Amid the truly weighty concerns attendant to the COVID-19 pandemic, the silly season, of course, broke out in Washington: A debate over whether the infectious disease in question should be referred to as the “Wuhan coronavirus” or whether doing so is, as the anti-Trump left and its media megaphone allege, emblematic of racism. The manufactured controversy is as transparently political as it is ill-conceived. The question of the pathogen’s source is being framed to imply Trumpist xenophobia. To the contrary, it is a relevant consideration in the federal government’s legal authority to respond. Early this year, as the outbreak became manifest in China and began its relentless march through Southeast Asia and into Europe, the American press itself alluded incessantly to the Wuhan coronavirus. The sudden case of talking-head amnesia over this is being greeted in conservative media by hilarious video montages featuring the same scolds, who now decry the term, matter-of-factly invoking it back then.
Here’s one that McCarthy links:
Liberal media pundits want you to think referring to the coronavirus as the "Wuhan" or "Chinese" virus is racist. Here's just a few of the times the liberal media did just that. pic.twitter.com/ss3kV5smSP — MRCTV (@mrctv) March 12, 2020
McCarthy continues:
So, when is the invocation of emergency powers permissible? Congress has vested the president with this authority when a threat to the security and public health of any part of the United States is sufficiently grave to warrant a federal response. In our constitutional system, there are certain situations and categories of activity that automatically trigger federal authority. Most prominent among these are foreign relations, foreign incursions, border security, and matters related to foreign commerce, as well as commerce between the states — which, obviously, may be impacted by foreign commerce. Consequently, the origination of the virus in China and its transcontinental spread across the globe are highly relevant. They rationalize the president’s authority to address the emergency with Washington’s awesome resources. … Not only did history and common sense justify the administration (among others) in noting the origin of the Wuhan coronavirus. Doing so was a legal necessity if the imperative of federal support for beleaguered state governments was to be fulfilled.
This would be a silly exercise in political correctness at any time. When Americans are being instructed, if not ordered, to shelter in place for weeks on end, it’s an active insult to our intelligence and offensive on its face. The rest of us are having to put on our big-boy and big-girl pants and inflict economic damage on ourselves. Anyone offended by the term Wuhan Flu, WuFlu, or Chinese virus needs to go soak their head, preferably in distilled water.
Addendum: I’d say that government officials should refrain from making joking references to a “Kung flu,” however — not because it’s offensive, but because it sounds unserious and undermines credibility.


hotair--2020-03-17--Italy is becoming the worst case scenario for coronavirus (but Florida could be as bad)

The Wall Street Journal published a story today on the spread of coronavirus in Italy , which has been the worst hit country in the world outside China .
The death toll in Italy has just surpassed 2,500 and the total number of cases is now beyond 31,000 .
At the current rate , Italy will have more virus-caused deaths than China by the end of the week .
But those figures don ’ t really communicate the horrible situation taking place on the ground the way this story does : Ambulances here have stopped using sirens .
The frequent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Besides , there are few other vehicles on the road in Italy ’ s national lockdown .
Most are headed to the Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital , a large , modern medical facility in a prosperous Italian city that has been overwhelmed by the coronavirus disease .
There aren ’ t enough ventilators to intubate all patients with Covid-19 who have severe breathing trouble .
The intensive-care unit is taking almost no patients older than 70 , doctors said… Now , people wait an hour on the phone to report heart attacks , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lines are busy .
Each day , his team fields 2,500 calls and brings 1,500 people to the hospital .
“ That ’ s not counting those the first responders visit but tell to stay home and call again if their condition worsens , ” he said… Doctors taking a break at the Papa Giovanni swap stories of woe , including the call from an elderly-care home reporting suspected virus sufferers who were over 80 years old .
The hospital said the elderly residents had to stay put .
An Italian doctor on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the WSJ , “ Every day you lose , the contagion gets worse.
” Last week , ABC News pointed out there are several reasons the virus is so deadly in Italy .
For one thing , it has the oldest population in Europe , meaning far more people are likely to become seriously ill. Another factor has to do with living arrangements in Italy .
It ’ s common for younger people to live in homes with their parents and grandparents , making it more likely the young can spread the disease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points out that in America there are different regions of the country with different demographics .
One region know to have an abundance of elderly people is the state of Florida : Some cities might have far more young people than seniors , and some suburbs are likely just the opposite .
Or think about Florida and its masses of retirees .
“ Florida is like an uber-Italy , ” says Andrew Noymer , a demographer at the University of California , Irvine , who wasn ’ t involved in this research .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ tough situation , I would predict.
” In a place with so many elderly people , many of them living close together in retirement homes , social distancing will be extra important to avoid disaster .
“ It ’ s not destiny to say Florida is going to be absolutely clobbered by this , ” Noymer says .
“ There is time with social distancing to flatten the peak .
Maybe we can make this the dog that didn ’ t bark , so to speak.
” And yet , that message clearly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet .
This is from Sunday : After viewing that clip above , infectious disease experts told Mashable this was a really bad idea : Another epidimiologist pointed out that this particular beach is full of tourists who will eventually return home and potentially spread what they picked up all over the place : “ Even if you yourself are a healthy 20-something person , you ’ ll go home and transmit that infection to someone else who might not be as successful in fighting off that infection , ” said Amanda Simanek @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee… A looming , if not unsettling problem , is that tourists flock to Clearwater Beach .
Many Florida beachgoers will then hop in cars ( and some on planes ) and then disperse around the state or region .
“ We have to think about what that means for people flying back home , ” she said , noting asymptomatic people could very well shed the virus in their communities .
Today , Florida Governor DeSantis announced bars would be closed and beach gatherings would be limited to no more than 10 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bars across Florida , recommended ending classroom instruction at universities for the semester , ordered a limit of 10 people at beach gatherings and restricted restaurant occupancy to 50 percent , the most aggressive actions by the state so far in the fight against coronavirus .
The moves were taken on a day when the number of Florida coronavirus cases increased to 192 and it was revealed that the virus had found its way into a Broward County assisted living facility and killed a 77-year-old man , an ominous development in a state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who are especially vulnerable to COVID-19 , the disease caused by this coronavirus .
It ’ s better than nothing but I wonder how practical it will be to enforce this .
Are police going to ride over to groups of 12 and toss them off the beach ?
Also , tracking the social contacts of the infected backward to alert other people becomes much harder when you ’ re talking about random groups of strangers wandering about on a beach .
It ’ s like a real-life version of those visualizations the @ @ @

The Wall Street Journal published a story today on the spread of coronavirus in Italy, which has been the worst hit country in the world outside China. The death toll in Italy has just surpassed 2,500 and the total number of cases is now beyond 31,000. At the current rate, Italy will have more virus-caused deaths than China by the end of the week. But those figures don’t really communicate the horrible situation taking place on the ground the way this story does:
Ambulances here have stopped using sirens. The frequent blaring only adds to local fears. Besides, there are few other vehicles on the road in Italy’s national lockdown. Most are headed to the Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital, a large, modern medical facility in a prosperous Italian city that has been overwhelmed by the coronavirus disease. There aren’t enough ventilators to intubate all patients with Covid-19 who have severe breathing trouble. The intensive-care unit is taking almost no patients older than 70, doctors said… Now, people wait an hour on the phone to report heart attacks, Dr. Giupponi said, because all the lines are busy. Each day, his team fields 2,500 calls and brings 1,500 people to the hospital. “That’s not counting those the first responders visit but tell to stay home and call again if their condition worsens,” he said… Doctors taking a break at the Papa Giovanni swap stories of woe, including the call from an elderly-care home reporting suspected virus sufferers who were over 80 years old. The hospital said the elderly residents had to stay put.
An Italian doctor on the front line of this crisis told the WSJ, “Every day you lose, the contagion gets worse.” Last week, ABC News pointed out there are several reasons the virus is so deadly in Italy. For one thing, it has the oldest population in Europe, meaning far more people are likely to become seriously ill. Another factor has to do with living arrangements in Italy. It’s common for younger people to live in homes with their parents and grandparents, making it more likely the young can spread the disease to elderly relatives.
Today, Wired points out that in America there are different regions of the country with different demographics. One region know to have an abundance of elderly people is the state of Florida:
Some cities might have far more young people than seniors, and some suburbs are likely just the opposite. Or think about Florida and its masses of retirees. “Florida is like an uber-Italy,” says Andrew Noymer, a demographer at the University of California, Irvine, who wasn’t involved in this research. “Florida is going to be a tough situation, I would predict.” In a place with so many elderly people, many of them living close together in retirement homes, social distancing will be extra important to avoid disaster. “It’s not destiny to say Florida is going to be absolutely clobbered by this,” Noymer says. “There is time with social distancing to flatten the peak. Maybe we can make this the dog that didn’t bark, so to speak.”
And yet, that message clearly hasn’t gotten through to everyone yet. This is from Sunday:
https://twitter.com/AlexJungle2/status/1239167892899454982
And Monday:
Clearwater Beach, Florida is PACKED today despite "social distancing" recommendations. https://t.co/WzGydcP1Ja pic.twitter.com/vsRD4QLbhr — WFLA NEWS (@WFLA) March 16, 2020
After viewing that clip above, infectious disease experts told Mashable this was a really bad idea:
“This is how it is going to spread,” said Dr. Timothy Murphy, an M.D. and infectious disease researcher at the University of Buffalo, after seeing the video. “In order for social distancing to work, everyone has got to do it,” said Murphy. “It’s not going to work unless everyone buys into it.”
Another epidimiologist pointed out that this particular beach is full of tourists who will eventually return home and potentially spread what they picked up all over the place:
“Even if you yourself are a healthy 20-something person, you’ll go home and transmit that infection to someone else who might not be as successful in fighting off that infection,” said Amanda Simanek, an epidemiologist at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee… A looming, if not unsettling problem, is that tourists flock to Clearwater Beach. Many Florida beachgoers will then hop in cars (and some on planes) and then disperse around the state or region. “We have to think about what that means for people flying back home,” she said, noting asymptomatic people could very well shed the virus in their communities.
Today, Florida Governor DeSantis announced bars would be closed and beach gatherings would be limited to no more than 10 people.
Gov. Ron DeSantis closed bars across Florida, recommended ending classroom instruction at universities for the semester, ordered a limit of 10 people at beach gatherings and restricted restaurant occupancy to 50 percent, the most aggressive actions by the state so far in the fight against coronavirus. The moves were taken on a day when the number of Florida coronavirus cases increased to 192 and it was revealed that the virus had found its way into a Broward County assisted living facility and killed a 77-year-old man, an ominous development in a state with many frail seniors in such facilities who are especially vulnerable to COVID-19, the disease caused by this coronavirus.
It’s better than nothing but I wonder how practical it will be to enforce this. Are police going to ride over to groups of 12 and toss them off the beach? Also, tracking the social contacts of the infected backward to alert other people becomes much harder when you’re talking about random groups of strangers wandering about on a beach. It’s like a real-life version of those visualizations the Post published.
Update: Interviews from Clearwater Beach in Florida.