hotair--2020-11-02--Axios: Trump wants to declare victory on Election Night

Bad idea , but not for the reasons that the inevitable media reaction will suppose .
Axios ’ Jonathan Swan usually has his finger on the pulse of this White House , and right now the beat ’ s telling him that Donald Trump plans to declare victory tomorrow night — if in-person vote counts in key states have him in the lead .
Tens of millions of mail-in ballots will remain to be counted at that point , however : President Trump has told confidants he ’ ll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three sources familiar with his private comments .
That ’ s even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania .
… Behind the scenes : Trump has privately talked through this scenario in some detail in the last few weeks , describing plans to walk up to a podium on election night and declare he has won .
For this to happen , his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio , Florida , North @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Georgia .
This is a bad idea because it ’ s an entirely meaningless gesture .
Even if Biden conceded , he could still win the race if the final certified results showed him with 270 or more Electoral College votes .
Declarations of victory and concessions have no legal weight , although concessions do carry a political and moral weight .
Even that can be overstated , though .
Who remembers when Al Gore conceded and then un-conceded ?
That didn ’ t have any impact on the trajectory of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the vote count .
Gore ended up conceding again a few weeks later after the Supreme Court decided Bush v Gore .
That didn ’ t stop Democrats from claiming that Bush stole the election , that he should be called “ resident , ” and so on for the following four years .
Why not wait until we get a final preliminary vote count ?
Let ’ s just call it shaping the battlefield : When this happens — I think we can dispense with the if scenario — the media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , autocratic , and probably a lot worse .
Given the meaninglessness of it , that will mainly be hysteria .
Let ’ s not forget that the federal government has nothing to do with counting ballots in the states , and perhaps even cheer the federalism on which that rests for an important protection against all of the above .
Trump isn ’ t trying to resist being removed from office — he ’ s preparing for the kind of fight Democrats launched against him in 2016 .
It might be a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now , but as the old gag line goes , it ain ’ t paranoia if they ’ re really out to get you .
Both sides will call out the lawyers .
In fact , both sides have already called out the lawyers , as the numerous challenges in court to ballot procedures shows .
Republicans learned a hard lesson in Minnesota ’ s 2008-9 Senate recount at the hands of Democrats , or at least Trump did — fight early and fight to win .
So why is it a bad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it makes a candidate look like an idiot when he or she turns out to be wrong .
It makes their allies and defenders look like idiots too , which is something many of them won ’ t easily forgive .
Those problems get magnified when it happens at the presidential level , but that ’ s still the extent of the problem .
Courts will settle matters relatively quickly , and it would be better to let the lawyers make the declarations while projecting a calm confidence and no more .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ t be Trump .
He ’ s no George W. Bush , for better or worse .

Bad idea, but not for the reasons that the inevitable media reaction will suppose. Axios’ Jonathan Swan usually has his finger on the pulse of this White House, and right now the beat’s telling him that Donald Trump plans to declare victory tomorrow night — if in-person vote counts in key states have him in the lead. Tens of millions of mail-in ballots will remain to be counted at that point, however:
President Trump has told confidants he’ll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he’s “ahead,” according to three sources familiar with his private comments. That’s even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania. … Behind the scenes: Trump has privately talked through this scenario in some detail in the last few weeks, describing plans to walk up to a podium on election night and declare he has won. For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.
This is a bad idea because it’s an entirely meaningless gesture. Even if Biden conceded, he could still win the race if the final certified results showed him with 270 or more Electoral College votes. Declarations of victory and concessions have no legal weight, although concessions do carry a political and moral weight.
Even that can be overstated, though. Who remembers when Al Gore conceded and then un-conceded? That didn’t have any impact on the trajectory of the race, nor on the final settlement of the vote count. Gore ended up conceding again a few weeks later after the Supreme Court decided Bush v Gore. That didn’t stop Democrats from claiming that Bush stole the election, that he should be called “resident,” and so on for the following four years.
Say, doesn’t that sound … familiar?
Why not wait until we get a final preliminary vote count? Let’s just call it shaping the battlefield:
Why it matters: Trump’s team is preparing to falsely claim that mail-in ballots counted after Nov. 3 — a legitimate count expected to favor Democrats — are evidence of election fraud.
When this happens — I think we can dispense with the if scenario — the media will call Trump’s declaration undemocratic, autocratic, and probably a lot worse. Given the meaninglessness of it, that will mainly be hysteria. Let’s not forget that the federal government has nothing to do with counting ballots in the states, and perhaps even cheer the federalism on which that rests for an important protection against all of the above. Trump isn’t trying to resist being removed from office — he’s preparing for the kind of fight Democrats launched against him in 2016. It might be a bit paranoid to plot that fight out now, but as the old gag line goes, it ain’t paranoia if they’re really out to get you.
Both sides will call out the lawyers. In fact, both sides have already called out the lawyers, as the numerous challenges in court to ballot procedures shows. Republicans learned a hard lesson in Minnesota’s 2008-9 Senate recount at the hands of Democrats, or at least Trump did — fight early and fight to win.
So why is it a bad idea to declare victory prematurely? Mainly, it makes a candidate look like an idiot when he or she turns out to be wrong. It makes their allies and defenders look like idiots too, which is something many of them won’t easily forgive. Those problems get magnified when it happens at the presidential level, but that’s still the extent of the problem. Courts will settle matters relatively quickly, and it would be better to let the lawyers make the declarations while projecting a calm confidence and no more. But then again … that wouldn’t be Trump. He’s no George W. Bush, for better or worse.


hotair--2020-11-02--Biden leads by four in Pennsylvania, says ... Rasmussen

Adjusting for Rasmussen ’ s famous pro-Trump lean , this feels like Biden +27 .
No , actually , this isn ’ t a disaster for Trump .
He ’ s actually gained a point since Ras ’ s last poll of PA. And if you include leaners , he ’ s only down by three , 50/47 .
But trailing on the eve of the election in a must-win state according to a pollster that ’ s typically very favorable to him is not where he wants to be .
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump 49 % to 45 % .
Two weeks ago , Biden had a 50 % to 45 % lead… Forty-three percent ( 43 % ) of voters in the Keystone State have already voted this election cycle .
Among these voters , Biden leads by 73 % to 23 % .
Trump has a two-to-one advantage – 62 % to 31 % – among those who have yet to vote .
Ninety-two percent ( 92 % ) of all voters in Pennsylvania have made up their minds whom they ’ re going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 52 % to 47 % advantage in this group .
Among the 93 % who definitely plan to vote , the Democrat leads 50 % to 46 % .
Nate Silver has spent the past few days on social media intermittently reminding people that Pennsylvania is so important to the race this year that Biden would flip instantly to an underdog to win the presidency if Trump pulls the upset there .
Yes , true , Sleepy Joe can still pick up the electoral votes he needs to get to 270 without PA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ + any one of North Carolina or Georgia or Arizona ( and a single electoral vote from Omaha ’ s Second District ) would do it for him .
But Pennsylvania has enough demographic similarities to those other states that if he ’ s coming up short there he ’ s probably coming up short elsewhere .
Pennsylvania ’ s the big one .
Here ’ s what the RCP average of PA looks like right now .
You ’ ll notice that Trump is within three points , giving him a very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years ago he finished 2.1 points behind Clinton in the Pennsylvania polling average and then won the state by seven-tenths of a point .
If we get that same shift tomorrow from the current polling average , Biden would lead by … 0.1 percent .
God help us all .
But there ’ s something else to notice about the array of polls that form the RCP average .
This isn ’ t a case , as sometimes happens with averages , where there ’ s clear consensus around the state of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all saying that Biden leads by five , that would be one thing .
What we actually have is two different clusters of polls that say dramatically different things , and when we average them together we get a result in the middle .
The three surveys showing Trump ahead — Trafalgar , InsiderAdvantage , and Susquehanna — are all allied with Republicans .
Clearly the turnout models they ’ re using see much more robust turnout for Trump than other pollsters do .
The surveys that aren ’ t allied with Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , NBC , Monmouth — are all congregated around a Biden lead of five or six points .
What makes Rasmussen ’ s result so interesting is that they frequently have strong results for the president , as Republican-allied pollsters tend to do , but they ’ re actually a little closer to the non-allied consensus today .
And they match the overall average almost bang-on .
Are we headed towards something on the order of a three-point Biden win or will one of the two clusters have a clear victory over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quirk in the Pennsylvania polling today .
There are two surveys out that didn ’ t get incorporated into RCP ’ s average , for whatever reason , and both of them have unusually big samples of around 2,700 people .
( By comparison , the biggest sample among the polls at RCP is 1,800 and most have far less than that . )
And both of them show unusually large leads for Joe Biden .
CES , which I wrote about the other day , has it 52/44 : The difference for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leads by double digits .
Meanwhile , Morning Consult has Biden up nine in PA : Note the gigantic sample of Florida , which also produces a bigger-than-expected lead for Biden .
Now that I look back at it , the Times ’ s 1,800-voter sample of PA also has a Biden lead on the higher side of the recent polling .
You ’ re left to wonder whether the polls with smaller samples and higher margins of error that show a tighter race are lowballing Sleepy Joe and whether Pennsylvania won ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I ’ ll leave you with one more point about PA .
Although mail-in ballots generally should trend very blue across all states , Silver ’ s been beating the drum lately about how ballots mailed in the final days of the race should have a more even partisan split .
Which means that even if Trump and the GOP manage to get votes that arrive after Election Day thrown out , those votes might not have a lopsided Biden tilt .
They might be more of a push , with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spotted this data today from Pennsylvania : A larger share of Dems have got their ballots in than Republicans .
Which might not matter at all : Some GOPers may have been planning to vote by mail , requested a ballot , and decided in the end to just do it in person tomorrow instead .
But every vote that ’ s already banked is a vote that won ’ t be lost tomorrow if something comes up to keep that voter away from the polls — bad weather , ambivalence about their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or what have you .
And if the Republicans who received mail ballots in PA *do* decide to drop them in the mail today , it ’ s anyone ’ s guess whether the president ’ s lawyers will end up managing to get those votes thrown out in the end .

Adjusting for Rasmussen’s famous pro-Trump lean, this feels like Biden +27.
No, actually, this isn’t a disaster for Trump. He’s actually gained a point since Ras’s last poll of PA. And if you include leaners, he’s only down by three, 50/47.
But trailing on the eve of the election in a must-win state according to a pollster that’s typically very favorable to him is not where he wants to be.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania finds Biden leading Trump 49% to 45%. Two weeks ago, Biden had a 50% to 45% lead… Forty-three percent (43%) of voters in the Keystone State have already voted this election cycle. Among these voters, Biden leads by 73% to 23%. Trump has a two-to-one advantage – 62% to 31% – among those who have yet to vote. Ninety-two percent (92%) of all voters in Pennsylvania have made up their minds whom they’re going to vote for. Biden has a 52% to 47% advantage in this group. Among the 93% who definitely plan to vote, the Democrat leads 50% to 46%.
Nate Silver has spent the past few days on social media intermittently reminding people that Pennsylvania is so important to the race this year that Biden would flip instantly to an underdog to win the presidency if Trump pulls the upset there. Yes, true, Sleepy Joe can still pick up the electoral votes he needs to get to 270 without PA in his column; Michigan + Wisconsin + any one of North Carolina or Georgia or Arizona (and a single electoral vote from Omaha’s Second District) would do it for him. But Pennsylvania has enough demographic similarities to those other states that if he’s coming up short there he’s probably coming up short elsewhere. Pennsylvania’s the big one.
Here’s what the RCP average of PA looks like right now.
You’ll notice that Trump is within three points, giving him a very realistic chance of an upset. Four years ago he finished 2.1 points behind Clinton in the Pennsylvania polling average and then won the state by seven-tenths of a point. If we get that same shift tomorrow from the current polling average, Biden would lead by … 0.1 percent. God help us all.
But there’s something else to notice about the array of polls that form the RCP average. This isn’t a case, as sometimes happens with averages, where there’s clear consensus around the state of the race. If we had 10 polls all saying that Biden leads by five, that would be one thing. What we actually have is two different clusters of polls that say dramatically different things, and when we average them together we get a result in the middle. The three surveys showing Trump ahead — Trafalgar, InsiderAdvantage, and Susquehanna — are all allied with Republicans. Clearly the turnout models they’re using see much more robust turnout for Trump than other pollsters do. The surveys that aren’t allied with Republicans — Emerson, Reuters, the NYT, NBC, Monmouth — are all congregated around a Biden lead of five or six points. What makes Rasmussen’s result so interesting is that they frequently have strong results for the president, as Republican-allied pollsters tend to do, but they’re actually a little closer to the non-allied consensus today. And they match the overall average almost bang-on.
Are we headed towards something on the order of a three-point Biden win or will one of the two clusters have a clear victory over the other?
There’s another interesting quirk in the Pennsylvania polling today. There are two surveys out that didn’t get incorporated into RCP’s average, for whatever reason, and both of them have unusually big samples of around 2,700 people. (By comparison, the biggest sample among the polls at RCP is 1,800 and most have far less than that.) And both of them show unusually large leads for Joe Biden. CES, which I wrote about the other day, has it 52/44:
The difference for Biden is independents, among whom he leads by double digits. Meanwhile, Morning Consult has Biden up nine in PA:
Note the gigantic sample of Florida, which also produces a bigger-than-expected lead for Biden. Now that I look back at it, the Times’s 1,800-voter sample of PA also has a Biden lead on the higher side of the recent polling. You’re left to wonder whether the polls with smaller samples and higher margins of error that show a tighter race are lowballing Sleepy Joe and whether Pennsylvania won’t be as tight as everyone expects.
I’ll leave you with one more point about PA. Although mail-in ballots generally should trend very blue across all states, Silver’s been beating the drum lately about how ballots mailed in the final days of the race should have a more even partisan split. Which means that even if Trump and the GOP manage to get votes that arrive after Election Day thrown out, those votes might not have a lopsided Biden tilt. They might be more of a push, with a negligible effect on the outcome. Silver spotted this data today from Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania isn't a huge mail-voting state, but Dems having returned 82% of mail ballots vs. 71% for Republicans is something that stands out a bit. Returned mail ballots are +43 Democrat but outstanding ones are just +9 D.https://t.co/sTPHw4KZsl pic.twitter.com/nPpj6Uw9qE — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2020
A larger share of Dems have got their ballots in than Republicans. Which might not matter at all: Some GOPers may have been planning to vote by mail, requested a ballot, and decided in the end to just do it in person tomorrow instead. But every vote that’s already banked is a vote that won’t be lost tomorrow if something comes up to keep that voter away from the polls — bad weather, ambivalence about their party’s candidate, COVID fears, or what have you. And if the Republicans who received mail ballots in PA *do* decide to drop them in the mail today, it’s anyone’s guess whether the president’s lawyers will end up managing to get those votes thrown out in the end.


hotair--2020-11-02--Final NBC/Marist poll of Arizona shows a tie

The final NBC/Marist poll before the election shows a tie between Trump and Biden in Arizona : In Arizona , which Trump won by more than 3 points in 2016 , the candidates are tied at 48 percent each among likely voters , with a combined 4 percent undecided or voting for someone else .
Most other recent public polling in Arizona shows Biden with a slight lead , though within the margin of error… In Arizona , 76 percent of likely voters say they have already cast ballots , and Biden is ahead with them , 56 percent to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent yet to vote in the state , Trump leads , 66 percent to 26 percent .
A couple of other recent polls , Reuters and Emerson , have shown Biden with a slight advantage ( +2 ) in Arizona .
The Real Clear Politics average which includes the new NBC/Marist poll now shows Biden at +0.5 .
All of these results suggest a toss-up which will largely depend on whether or not Republicans really turn out election day .
The Senate race is also looking tighter than it did in the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a 6 point advantage in this final poll : The new NBC News/Marist Arizona poll also has incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally trailing Democrat Mark Kelly in the competitive race for her seat by 6 percentage points among likely voters , 52-46 percent .
Kelly previously notched a 12-point lead , 53-41 percent , in July .
McSally is widely viewed as one of the most vulnerable Senate Republicans on the ballot Tuesday , and her contest with Kelly may decide whether Democrats are able to retake control of the chamber .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has Kelly ahead by 5.8 percentage points .
Finally , while the published results of this poll don ’ t give details by age or race , NBC reports Biden “ is overperforming with white voters , seniors and independents.
” However , “ Trump is overperforming with non-white voters ” which is offsetting that and generating this tie .
The NY Times also published a story about the contest in Arizona today .
There ’ s lots of hope expressed by people on the left that this is the year the state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how the story opens : For months , for years , Democrats have said that 2020 is when Arizona goes blue .
But Patti Thompson , who joined fellow Republicans on Saturday in a state party office decorated with cardboard cutouts of Presidents Trump and Ronald Reagan , was not hearing it .
Even before state G.O.P .
leaders urged the volunteers to ignore the polls showing that Democrats were ahead in Arizona , Ms. Thompson , a 72-year-old party activist , professed nothing but optimism .
“ I ’ ve never seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” she said , dressing to reflect her confidence in a Women for Trump T-shirt emblazoned with an image of a stars-and-stripes stiletto and holding a bedazzled mask in her hand .
“ People care about saving our country .
You can ’ t let the liberals take power .
We can not let them run our country.
” We ’ ll find out tomorrow ( hopefully ) if Ms. Thompson was right .

The final NBC/Marist poll before the election shows a tie between Trump and Biden in Arizona:
In Arizona, which Trump won by more than 3 points in 2016, the candidates are tied at 48 percent each among likely voters, with a combined 4 percent undecided or voting for someone else. (Among all registered voters in the state, it’s Biden 48 percent, Trump 47 percent — down from Biden’s 5-point lead in July.) Most other recent public polling in Arizona shows Biden with a slight lead, though within the margin of error… In Arizona, 76 percent of likely voters say they have already cast ballots, and Biden is ahead with them, 56 percent to 42 percent. But among the 24 percent yet to vote in the state, Trump leads, 66 percent to 26 percent.
A couple of other recent polls, Reuters and Emerson, have shown Biden with a slight advantage (+2) in Arizona. The Real Clear Politics average which includes the new NBC/Marist poll now shows Biden at +0.5.
All of these results suggest a toss-up which will largely depend on whether or not Republicans really turn out election day. The Senate race is also looking tighter than it did in the last NBC/Marist poll but Mark Kelly still holds a 6 point advantage in this final poll:
The new NBC News/Marist Arizona poll also has incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally trailing Democrat Mark Kelly in the competitive race for her seat by 6 percentage points among likely voters, 52-46 percent. Kelly previously notched a 12-point lead, 53-41 percent, in July. McSally is widely viewed as one of the most vulnerable Senate Republicans on the ballot Tuesday, and her contest with Kelly may decide whether Democrats are able to retake control of the chamber. The RealClearPolitics average of recent Arizona Senate polling has Kelly ahead by 5.8 percentage points.
Finally, while the published results of this poll don’t give details by age or race, NBC reports Biden “is overperforming with white voters, seniors and independents.” However, “Trump is overperforming with non-white voters” which is offsetting that and generating this tie.
The NY Times also published a story about the contest in Arizona today. There’s lots of hope expressed by people on the left that this is the year the state will go blue but here’s how the story opens:
For months, for years, Democrats have said that 2020 is when Arizona goes blue. But Patti Thompson, who joined fellow Republicans on Saturday in a state party office decorated with cardboard cutouts of Presidents Trump and Ronald Reagan, was not hearing it. Even before state G.O.P. leaders urged the volunteers to ignore the polls showing that Democrats were ahead in Arizona, Ms. Thompson, a 72-year-old party activist, professed nothing but optimism. “I’ve never seen energy like we’re seeing now,” she said, dressing to reflect her confidence in a Women for Trump T-shirt emblazoned with an image of a stars-and-stripes stiletto and holding a bedazzled mask in her hand. “People care about saving our country. You can’t let the liberals take power. We cannot let them run our country.”
We’ll find out tomorrow (hopefully) if Ms. Thompson was right.


hotair--2020-11-02--Weak turnout for Dems' "Souls to the Polls" voting event in Miami-Dade County yesterday

Despite the fact that polls in both states are pure toss-ups , I ’ ve somehow talked myself into believing that ( 1 ) Florida is a near-lock for Trump and ( 2 ) Biden ’ s going to flip over the table by winning Georgia , which will leave the president at dire risk of defeat .
Biden leads by a point and a half today in the RCP average of Florida .
( Trump led , barely , in the final average in 2016 . )
Trump is ever so slightly ahead in today ’ s average of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ POTUS needs both and Biden doesn ’ t technically need either , although it would be an ominous trend for Democrats if two of the country ’ s most hotly contested swing states went red early .
Why do I feel so confident about Florida breaking for Trump ?
For starters because polls there have underestimated Republicans , sometimes grossly , in each of the last two cycles .
But mainly because Democrats have been complaining , loudly , to the media for months that Biden wasn ’ t doing enough to compete @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and I have covered that ad nauseam so I won ’ t belabor it , but Florida is so perennially and intractably tight that it feels like any obvious error there is necessarily fatal .
Biden took minority voters for granted ?
Well , that ’ s an error , so Biden ’ s gon na lose .
QED .
The latest bit of evidence : Yesterday was the “ Souls to the Polls ” event in Miami-Dade , wher Dem organizers to turn out black voters .
You should know by now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poor numbers they ’ ve seen thus far in M-D .
Yesterday was their chance to turn that around .
Guess what .
On the Day of the Dead on Sunday , the lively sights and sounds of the 2020 election were hard to escape in several corners of Miami-Dade County on the last day of early voting .
But by Sunday night , the county ’ s Elections Department reported weak turnout for the day compared to 2016 ’ s final “ Souls to the Polls ” Sunday ahead of Election Day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sunday , compared to 53,098 on the same Sunday in 2016 —a decline of 33 % .
Still , Miami-Dade Democrats pulled ahead of Republicans Sunday on the early-voting score after dominating a less busy “ Souls to the Polls ” day of final early voting .
Four years ago , Dems had a lead of 115,000 votes after early voting ended .
( That is , 115,000 more Democrats than Republicans had voted .
We don ’ t know whom they voted for . )
This year , with two extra days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lead of … 99,000 .
Here ’ s where I get to be a contrarian towards my own instincts , though , and argue myself into thinking Biden still has a shot .
First , although Republican turnout in Miami-Dade has been higher than Democrat turnout ( as a percentage ) , Dems are outperforming the GOP in some other counties : Broward : The most Democratic-blue county in Florida has put up a significant advantage in votes cast so far .
A total of 69.2 % of the county ’ s registered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of Republicans .
By the numbers , that ’ s 438,464 Democratic and 178,617 Republican votes .
Without that 259,847 Democratic advantage from Broward , Republicans would be notably ahead in Florida .
Broward has sometimes been a laggard in turnout , causing lots of gnashing of teeth among Democratic activists .
So far , the opposite is true for 2020 .
Democratic turnout in Broward is 2.9 percentage points higher than the statewide Democratic turnout .
Second , some polls show Biden winning more Republicans than Trump is winning Democrats , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ *big* among independents .
Quinnipiac ( which has a bad record in Florida , please do note ) has Sleepy Joe taking seven percent of R ’ s versus Trump taking three percent of D ’ s .
They also have him up by 16 among indies .
The last NYT poll of Florida has Biden winning five percent of Republicans to Trump ’ s two percent of Democrats and had him up even bigger among independents , by 18 .
Four years ago against Clinton , Trump and Hillary each took eight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to the exit poll .
And it was Trump who won independents that year , by four points .
And then there ’ s seniors .
Trump won them by 17 against Hillary .
The Times poll has him … a point ahead .
Quinnipiac has Biden up seven ( ! )
among that group , en route to a — highly unlikely — five-point win in Florida .
Nate Silver ’ s averages are more down to earth , but Biden again has narrow leads among indies and cross-party voters : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ begin from the same place the analyses of Michigan and Pennsylvania begin .
Namely , Trump *barely won* there four years ago .
He ’ s facing a stronger , much more popular opponent now , one who ’ s surfing a wave of antipathy to Trump among suburbanites that first showed up two years ago and who looks set to parlay seniors ’ dissatisfaction with Trump over COVID into major gains with that demographic .
Trump has made some gains of his own , notably with Latinos and black men , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s swung those groups behind him the way some polls show Biden doing with 65+ voters .
He ’ s made marginal improvements with both groups that could be decisive if the race is very tight .
But based on all of the foregoing , is it likely to be very tight ?
Or is it likely that the pandemic plus Biden ’ s greater likability relative to Hillary will be worth , say , three points that ’ ll hand him the state ?
I dunno .
I still think Trump wins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ based on nothing more than “ his fans really love him ” and , as I say , the fact that pollsters keep lowballing GOP candidates there .
The hard truth on Florida is that it ’ s one of the less interesting swing states tomorrow night , one that can lose him the election but can ’ t win it for him and probably won ’ t tell us much about which way the country is trending if he secures a narrow win .
If you want to know who ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ watch North Carolina , Georgia , and Arizona instead .
And then , if Biden ’ s lost all of those , get up bright and early on Wednesday for the mail-in counts in the Rust Belt .

Despite the fact that polls in both states are pure toss-ups, I’ve somehow talked myself into believing that (1) Florida is a near-lock for Trump and (2) Biden’s going to flip over the table by winning Georgia, which will leave the president at dire risk of defeat.
Biden leads by a point and a half today in the RCP average of Florida. (Trump led, barely, in the final average in 2016.) Trump is ever so slightly ahead in today’s average of Georgia. The bottom line is that POTUS needs both and Biden doesn’t technically need either, although it would be an ominous trend for Democrats if two of the country’s most hotly contested swing states went red early.
Why do I feel so confident about Florida breaking for Trump? For starters because polls there have underestimated Republicans, sometimes grossly, in each of the last two cycles. But mainly because Democrats have been complaining, loudly, to the media for months that Biden wasn’t doing enough to compete for black and Latino votes. Ed and I have covered that ad nauseam so I won’t belabor it, but Florida is so perennially and intractably tight that it feels like any obvious error there is necessarily fatal. Biden took minority voters for granted? Well, that’s an error, so Biden’s gonna lose. QED.
The latest bit of evidence: Yesterday was the “Souls to the Polls” event in Miami-Dade, wher Dem organizers to turn out black voters. You should know by now how nervous Team Joe is about the poor numbers they’ve seen thus far in M-D. Yesterday was their chance to turn that around. Guess what.
On the Day of the Dead on Sunday, the lively sights and sounds of the 2020 election were hard to escape in several corners of Miami-Dade County on the last day of early voting. But by Sunday night, the county’s Elections Department reported weak turnout for the day compared to 2016’s final “Souls to the Polls” Sunday ahead of Election Day. About 35,800 votes were cast on Sunday, compared to 53,098 on the same Sunday in 2016 —a decline of 33%. Still, Miami-Dade Democrats pulled ahead of Republicans Sunday on the early-voting score after dominating a less busy “Souls to the Polls” day of final early voting.
Four years ago, Dems had a lead of 115,000 votes after early voting ended. (That is, 115,000 more Democrats than Republicans had voted. We don’t know whom they voted for.) This year, with two extra days of mail-in voting, they have a lead of … 99,000.
Here’s where I get to be a contrarian towards my own instincts, though, and argue myself into thinking Biden still has a shot. First, although Republican turnout in Miami-Dade has been higher than Democrat turnout (as a percentage), Dems are outperforming the GOP in some other counties:
Broward: The most Democratic-blue county in Florida has put up a significant advantage in votes cast so far. A total of 69.2% of the county’s registered Democrats have already voted compared to 66.3% of Republicans. By the numbers, that’s 438,464 Democratic and 178,617 Republican votes. Without that 259,847 Democratic advantage from Broward, Republicans would be notably ahead in Florida. Broward has sometimes been a laggard in turnout, causing lots of gnashing of teeth among Democratic activists. So far, the opposite is true for 2020. Democratic turnout in Broward is 2.9 percentage points higher than the statewide Democratic turnout.
Second, some polls show Biden winning more Republicans than Trump is winning Democrats, and some of them see him winning *big* among independents. Quinnipiac (which has a bad record in Florida, please do note) has Sleepy Joe taking seven percent of R’s versus Trump taking three percent of D’s. They also have him up by 16 among indies. The last NYT poll of Florida has Biden winning five percent of Republicans to Trump’s two percent of Democrats and had him up even bigger among independents, by 18. Four years ago against Clinton, Trump and Hillary each took eight percent of the other’s base according to the exit poll. And it was Trump who won independents that year, by four points.
And then there’s seniors. Trump won them by 17 against Hillary. The Times poll has him … a point ahead. Quinnipiac has Biden up seven(!) among that group, en route to a — highly unlikely — five-point win in Florida. Nate Silver’s averages are more down to earth, but Biden again has narrow leads among indies and cross-party voters:
Although of course we're scrambling party ID and party registration here, with those numbers, Biden would be a favorite in a GOP +3 electorate or anything bluer. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2020
Logically, the analysis of Florida should begin from the same place the analyses of Michigan and Pennsylvania begin. Namely, Trump *barely won* there four years ago. He’s facing a stronger, much more popular opponent now, one who’s surfing a wave of antipathy to Trump among suburbanites that first showed up two years ago and who looks set to parlay seniors’ dissatisfaction with Trump over COVID into major gains with that demographic. Trump has made some gains of his own, notably with Latinos and black men, but it’s not like he’s swung those groups behind him the way some polls show Biden doing with 65+ voters. He’s made marginal improvements with both groups that could be decisive if the race is very tight.
But based on all of the foregoing, is it likely to be very tight? Or is it likely that the pandemic plus Biden’s greater likability relative to Hillary will be worth, say, three points that’ll hand him the state?
I dunno. I still think Trump wins it, but that’s really based on nothing more than “his fans really love him” and, as I say, the fact that pollsters keep lowballing GOP candidates there. The hard truth on Florida is that it’s one of the less interesting swing states tomorrow night, one that can lose him the election but can’t win it for him and probably won’t tell us much about which way the country is trending if he secures a narrow win. If you want to know who’s going to be president next year, watch North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona instead. And then, if Biden’s lost all of those, get up bright and early on Wednesday for the mail-in counts in the Rust Belt.


hotair--2020-11-02--Terror attack in Vienna, one shooter killed (Update)

Details are still very sketchy at this point .
The Vienna police posted a message on Twitter about an hour ago ( as I write this ) saying shot had been fired in the city and people were injured : Police are asking anyone with video of what happened not to post it online : An Austrian news agency is reporting this as a possible terror attack and several news outlets are now reporting there may be two attackers , one of whom was killed : Another aspect of this which may be leading authorities to suspect a terror attack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ near a synagogue .
However , the synagogue was closed so maybe it wasn ’ t the target : The Daily Mail is reporting that seven people have been killed in the attack : At least seven people are thought to have been killed with several others injured in a suspected gun and suicide attack near a synagogue in Vienna .
A huge manhunt is underway for the gunman , according to local reports , with an accomplice thought to have ‘ blown themselves up ’ during the rampage .
Kronen Zeitung , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reporting the incident as a terror attack , with a police officer said to have been shot and left in a critical condition .
There are several videos circulating already .
In this one a shooter comes out of some building and fires a few shots from a rifle .
There ’ s also this clip of what looks like the same person running down the street and firing a couple shots into the building .
It looks to me like he ’ s passing the same red carpeted entrance seen above : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a shootout with two police officers , at least one of whom is hit .
The reflection on the glass makes it hard to see but I think it ’ s the same shooter visible on the left of the frame : Another video showing the shooter targeting a person in the street : There are also a couple of videos where you can hear shots being fired but you can ’ t tell who is shooting : A lot of blood in the street and people appear to be trying to help @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reporting that there are multiple shooting locations and several suspects : I ’ ll update this when more information is made available .
Update : The latest from Vienna police confirming some details about the attack .
Update : This is now being called a terror attack by Austria ’ s Chancellor so I ’ m talking the “ possible ” out of the headline .
The top tweet reads : “ We are currently going through difficult times in our republic .
I would like to thank all the emergency services who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our safety .
Our police will take decisive action against the perpetrators of this hideous terrorist attack.
” The second tweet : “ I am glad that our police officers have already been able to eliminate a perpetrator .
We will never allow ourselves to be intimidated by terrorism and will fight these attacks resolutely by all means.
” Also , there ’ s a report that the shooter that was killed by police had an “ explosive belt .
”

Details are still very sketchy at this point. The Vienna police posted a message on Twitter about an hour ago (as I write this) saying shot had been fired in the city and people were injured:
Shots fired in the Inner City district – there are persons injured – KEEP AWAY from all public places or public Transport – don't share any Videos or Fotos! — POLIZEI WIEN (@LPDWien) November 2, 2020
Police are asking anyone with video of what happened not to post it online:
If you have footage of any kind of the shooting incident in the inner city of Vienna – please upload it on this link – DON’T share it on social media! This way you can support us! https://t.co/FQ2he2MMPs #0211w — POLIZEI WIEN (@LPDWien) November 2, 2020
An Austrian news agency is reporting this as a possible terror attack and several news outlets are now reporting there may be two attackers, one of whom was killed:
According to the Austrian news agency APA, the Interior Ministry has spoken of a possible terror attack or shooting rampage. It said one attacker was dead and a police officer had been shot and seriously wounded, according to the agency. One suspected attacker has been arrested, the ministry was cited as saying.
Another aspect of this which may be leading authorities to suspect a terror attack is that the shooting apparently took place near a synagogue. However, the synagogue was closed so maybe it wasn’t the target:
The shooting reportedly took place on a street near a synagogue. Jewish community leader Oskar Deutsch tweeted that it was unclear if the Vienna synagogue was targeted in the attack as it was closed at the time.
The Daily Mail is reporting that seven people have been killed in the attack:
At least seven people are thought to have been killed with several others injured in a suspected gun and suicide attack near a synagogue in Vienna. A huge manhunt is underway for the gunman, according to local reports, with an accomplice thought to have ‘blown themselves up’ during the rampage. Kronen Zeitung, Austria’s largest newspaper, is reporting the incident as a terror attack, with a police officer said to have been shot and left in a critical condition.
There are several videos circulating already. In this one a shooter comes out of some building and fires a few shots from a rifle.
There’s also this clip of what looks like the same person running down the street and firing a couple shots into the building. It looks to me like he’s passing the same red carpeted entrance seen above:
Several casualties feared in ongoing terror attack near Jewish synagogue in #Vienna. A shooter seen in this video shouting something familiar. #ViennaAttack pic.twitter.com/My3Z1Wp5lg — Abhijit Majumder (@abhijitmajumder) November 2, 2020
And in this clip you can see a shootout with two police officers, at least one of whom is hit. The reflection on the glass makes it hard to see but I think it’s the same shooter visible on the left of the frame:
Another long night for another European city – Vienna tonight as the police tries to control an active shooter. pic.twitter.com/0ehezE6tZx — Luna Safwan – لونا صفوان (@LunaSafwan) November 2, 2020
Another video showing the shooter targeting a person in the street:
Video showing already dead shooter, killing first man, starting of this horrible event.#Vienna https://t.co/Qs0hvZ4aZH — Tyson Berger (@tysonberger) November 2, 2020
There are also a couple of videos where you can hear shots being fired but you can’t tell who is shooting:
Another footage from Vienna. More gunshots pic.twitter.com/c0EAHfUl2S — Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) November 2, 2020
A lot of blood in the street and people appear to be trying to help an injured person:
One dead, several wounded in an attack at a synagogue in the vicinity of Schwedenplatz in Vienna's first district, shooter is on the run. #Vienna #Austria pic.twitter.com/TVRTNiMFcu — Mani (@Maa_niii) November 2, 2020
CNN is now reporting that there are multiple shooting locations and several suspects:
In a statement, police said there were several suspects “armed with rifles” and six different shooting locations. Multiple people have been injured in the city center. “All possible forces” are responding to the incident, according to police, who are urging people to avoid the area and not to share photos or videos on social media.
From the NY Times:
At least 15 people were wounded in the attack, according to a spokesman for the local hospital association. It was unclear how serious the injuries were. “At the moment we assume there are several perpetrators,” said Karl Nehammer, Austria’s interior minister. “Unfortunately there are also several injured, probably also dead.” He called the episode a terrorist attack.
I’ll update this when more information is made available.
Update: The latest from Vienna police confirming some details about the attack.
CONFIRMED at the moment:
*08:00 pm: several shots fired, beginning at Seitenstettengasse
*several suspects armed with rifles
*six different shooting locations
* one deceaced person, several injured (1 officer included)
*1 suspect shot and killed by police officers #0211w — POLIZEI WIEN (@LPDWien) November 2, 2020
Update: This is now being called a terror attack by Austria’s Chancellor so I’m talking the “possible” out of the headline. The top tweet reads: “We are currently going through difficult times in our republic. I would like to thank all the emergency services who risk their lives, especially today for our safety. Our police will take decisive action against the perpetrators of this hideous terrorist attack.”
The second tweet: “I am glad that our police officers have already been able to eliminate a perpetrator. We will never allow ourselves to be intimidated by terrorism and will fight these attacks resolutely by all means.”
Ich bin froh, dass unsere Polizisten bereits einen Täter ausschalten konnten. Wir werden uns durch Terrorismus niemals einschüchtern lassen und diese Angriffe mit allen Mitteln entschieden bekämpfen. — Sebastian Kurz (@sebastiankurz) November 2, 2020
Also, there’s a report that the shooter that was killed by police had an “explosive belt.”


hotair--2020-11-02--Biden's last-minute Hail Mary on gun control

For months now , disappointed liberals have been scratching their heads and bemoaning one question hanging over the 2020 elections .
Why aren ’ t Democrats talking about gun control ?
It was all the rage last year , but now you don ’ t hear a peep about if from almost any of their candidates and it wasn ’ t even mentioned at the Democratic National Convention .
The reasons seemed fairly obvious to me and it looked as if the issue had been put to rest for this cycle .
But then , only this weekend , Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ended the silence .
His Twitter account chimed in , seemingly out of nowhere , with a promise to infringe on your Second Amendment rights if he ’ s sworn in as the 46th president .
This was just a curious decision on so many levels .
First of all , did Joe Biden tweet that himself , or did one of his aides go rogue and do it without consulting him ?
( Whether Biden does his own tweeting all or even some of the time remains an open question .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t . )
In any event , it ’ s out there on the record and it will be ascribed to him anyway , so it ’ s a bit late to worry about that .
Also , it ’ s not as if Biden has made any secret of his intentions .
All of his Second Amendment restriction plans are still posted on his campaign website even if nobody is talking about them in public .
But why tweet this ?
And more to the point , why now ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ across the country , including among Democrats and liberals who are fearful of the violence engulfing the streets .
Any discussions of making it even more difficult to legally purchase a firearm for your own protection aren ’ t likely to go over very well with anyone but the most hardened of the liberal base who were going to vote for Biden in any event .
All this does is throw ammunition to the Trump campaign to use in the final hours as people prepare to go to the polls .
Or could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the eye ?
This is the sort of thing any Democratic presidential candidate would be expected to say in more normal times , primarily to instill confidence in their base that they will support the liberal gun-grabbing agenda .
Is Biden ’ s team looking at the numbers in some of the swing states and beginning to worry about turnout among their own people as opposed to any persuadable moderates that may still be sitting on the fence ?
If so , this could be a bid to drive the last few of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s not an entirely crazy idea .
Even the Washington Post admitted this weekend that the Biden campaign was growing increasingly worried about the polling in Pennsylvania and fear that his previous , slim lead could be slipping away at the eleventh hour .
But this doesn ’ t sound like a move that would help him much , if at all , on that score .
The vast majority of Biden ’ s support in the Keystone State is going to come from Pittsburgh and Philadelphia .
But the latter city @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going up in flames .
Philly is one of the places where the demand for guns is off the charts in a Democratic stronghold and people can ’ t even get applications for permits , to say nothing of laying their hands on a legal firearm .
Something tells me that even his base there doesn ’ t want to hear any gun control claptrap at the moment .
Or was this just a slip-up on someone ’ s part on Team Biden ?
I honestly can ’ t come up with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ management in the final stretch of the campaign .
Either way , Trump ’ s people need to pick up this ball and run with it all night .

For months now, disappointed liberals have been scratching their heads and bemoaning one question hanging over the 2020 elections. Why aren’t Democrats talking about gun control? It was all the rage last year, but now you don’t hear a peep about if from almost any of their candidates and it wasn’t even mentioned at the Democratic National Convention. The reasons seemed fairly obvious to me and it looked as if the issue had been put to rest for this cycle. But then, only this weekend, Democratic candidate Joe Biden broke the mold and ended the silence. His Twitter account chimed in, seemingly out of nowhere, with a promise to infringe on your Second Amendment rights if he’s sworn in as the 46th president.
It’s long past time we take action to end the scourge of gun violence in America. As president, I’ll ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, implement universal background checks, and enact other common-sense reforms to end our gun violence epidemic. — Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) November 1, 2020
This was just a curious decision on so many levels. First of all, did Joe Biden tweet that himself, or did one of his aides go rogue and do it without consulting him? (Whether Biden does his own tweeting all or even some of the time remains an open question. It’s a common opinion that he doesn’t.) In any event, it’s out there on the record and it will be ascribed to him anyway, so it’s a bit late to worry about that.
Also, it’s not as if Biden has made any secret of his intentions. All of his Second Amendment restriction plans are still posted on his campaign website even if nobody is talking about them in public.
But why tweet this? And more to the point, why now? Gun sales are through the roof all across the country, including among Democrats and liberals who are fearful of the violence engulfing the streets. Any discussions of making it even more difficult to legally purchase a firearm for your own protection aren’t likely to go over very well with anyone but the most hardened of the liberal base who were going to vote for Biden in any event. All this does is throw ammunition to the Trump campaign to use in the final hours as people prepare to go to the polls.
Or could there be something more here than meets the eye? This is the sort of thing any Democratic presidential candidate would be expected to say in more normal times, primarily to instill confidence in their base that they will support the liberal gun-grabbing agenda. Is Biden’s team looking at the numbers in some of the swing states and beginning to worry about turnout among their own people as opposed to any persuadable moderates that may still be sitting on the fence? If so, this could be a bid to drive the last few of them out to the polls.
That’s not an entirely crazy idea. Even the Washington Post admitted this weekend that the Biden campaign was growing increasingly worried about the polling in Pennsylvania and fear that his previous, slim lead could be slipping away at the eleventh hour. But this doesn’t sound like a move that would help him much, if at all, on that score. The vast majority of Biden’s support in the Keystone State is going to come from Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. But the latter city is currently overrun by mobs and is going up in flames. Philly is one of the places where the demand for guns is off the charts in a Democratic stronghold and people can’t even get applications for permits, to say nothing of laying their hands on a legal firearm. Something tells me that even his base there doesn’t want to hear any gun control claptrap at the moment.
Or was this just a slip-up on someone’s part on Team Biden? I honestly can’t come up with a viable explanation for this other than poor management in the final stretch of the campaign. Either way, Trump’s people need to pick up this ball and run with it all night.


hotair--2020-11-02--The mainstream media has partnered with intel to cook its reporting to suit Democrats, says ...

Does this mean … second look at Any Given Sunday ?
Give Oliver Stone credit — he doesn ’ t like the CIA or American intel under any circumstances , even when it might benefit his own politics .
Stone went beyond the usual media-bias/narrative journalism accusations usually lobbed by his political opponents at the mainstream media , though : I certainly didn ’ t have “ Oliver Stone accuses media of conspiracy with US intel and Democrats ” on my election-week bingo card .
If you did , be sure to collect your winnings at the front desk .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ripping the media today for its collaboration with intel leakers to take down Trump , either .
In his subscriber-only Substack blog , Rolling Stone editor Matt Taibbi rips the media for its attempts to cook the election for Joe Biden while demagoguing Trump for all the wrong reasons .
Calling tomorrow ’ s election “ the worst choice ever , ” Taibbi says that ’ s in large part because the media is only interested in covering Trump and covering for Biden , and Taibbi also accuses the intelligence community of manipulating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corpse with hair plugs whose idea of “ empathy ” is to jam fingers in the sternums of people who ask the wrong questions , or call them “ fat ” or “ full of shit , ” or dare them to “ try me ” — and that ’ s if he remembers what state he ’ s in .
Is he a better human than Donald Trump ?
Probably , but his mental decline has hit Lloyd Bridges-in-Hot-Shots !
levels and he shares troubling characteristics with the president , beginning with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spent much of 2020 lying about everything from his Iraq War vote to his educational history to a fantasy about being arrested in South Africa with Nelson Mandela .
The same press that killed him for this behavior in the past let it all slide this time .
Same with the growing ledger of handsy-uncle incidents that had adolescent girls and campaigning politicians alike wondering why a Vice President needs to smell their hair or plant lingering kisses on their heads while cameras flash .
… Trump entered the White House buried in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by officials in his own government who were openly betraying him , illegally leaking intelligence about his administration to the press on a weekly if not daily basis .
Not to say it would have been a good idea , but he could have hauled every last one of these leakers off to jail , legally , and in a few cases could even have done what Barack Obama did , and used secrecy laws to go after press antagonists as well .
… While TV channels increasingly filled their on-air ranks with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ telltale sign of authoritarian drift , a whole range of private press interests were accused of treasonous collaboration and threatened with new forms of suppression .
This turned out not to be necessary , as most private news companies voluntarily accepted the logic of denouncing news adverse to the Democratic Party cause as foreign subversion .
I don ’ t want to excerpt any more of Taibbi ’ s caustic look at this situation , with one more sentence as an exception .
If you find this excerpt interesting , go subscribe to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Taibbi can ’ t stand Trump for reasons of both character and policy , but he ’ s just as disgusted by Biden , Democrats , and the media establishment .
This should not be missed : Taibbi provides an excellent pox-on-all-houses take , some of which I agree with and some I ’ d contest , but it ’ s no conspiracy theory to see how intel has been weaponized over the last four-plus years .
This still leaves us with the choice to make tomorrow ( or already made in early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Vote on policy , as the character considerations more or less cancel each other out — and demand better four years from now .

Does this mean … second look at Any Given Sunday? Give Oliver Stone credit — he doesn’t like the CIA or American intel under any circumstances, even when it might benefit his own politics. Stone went beyond the usual media-bias/narrative journalism accusations usually lobbed by his political opponents at the mainstream media, though:
(1/3) This crucial story from @thefloutist 1st reported in 2017 – in it lies the foundation for #Russiagate narrative. It’s clear the Democratic #MSM continue to promote false narrative. This is the primary reason @ggreenwald resigned from @TheIntercept. https://t.co/SKCZVUq9Rj — Oliver Stone (@TheOliverStone) November 1, 2020
(3/3) Glad to be back in #USA in this crazy energy at this crazy moment when the world seems to be topsy turvy but really isn’t. We live in exciting times, & Tuesday, Election Day, will be one of those times. Here we go! Another spin of the wheel. We’re all gamblers in this life. — Oliver Stone (@TheOliverStone) November 1, 2020
I certainly didn’t have “Oliver Stone accuses media of conspiracy with US intel and Democrats” on my election-week bingo card. If you did, be sure to collect your winnings at the front desk.
Stone’s not the only one ripping the media today for its collaboration with intel leakers to take down Trump, either. In his subscriber-only Substack blog, Rolling Stone editor Matt Taibbi rips the media for its attempts to cook the election for Joe Biden while demagoguing Trump for all the wrong reasons. Calling tomorrow’s election “the worst choice ever,” Taibbi says that’s in large part because the media is only interested in covering Trump and covering for Biden, and Taibbi also accuses the intelligence community of manipulating the coverage:
Joe Biden is a corpse with hair plugs whose idea of “empathy” is to jam fingers in the sternums of people who ask the wrong questions, or call them “fat” or “full of shit,” or dare them to “try me” — and that’s if he remembers what state he’s in. Is he a better human than Donald Trump? Probably, but his mental decline has hit Lloyd Bridges-in-Hot-Shots! levels and he shares troubling characteristics with the president, beginning with a pathological struggle with truth. Biden spent much of 2020 lying about everything from his Iraq War vote to his educational history to a fantasy about being arrested in South Africa with Nelson Mandela. The same press that killed him for this behavior in the past let it all slide this time. Same with the growing ledger of handsy-uncle incidents that had adolescent girls and campaigning politicians alike wondering why a Vice President needs to smell their hair or plant lingering kisses on their heads while cameras flash. … Trump entered the White House buried in scandals that had been foisted upon him by officials in his own government who were openly betraying him, illegally leaking intelligence about his administration to the press on a weekly if not daily basis. Not to say it would have been a good idea, but he could have hauled every last one of these leakers off to jail, legally, and in a few cases could even have done what Barack Obama did, and used secrecy laws to go after press antagonists as well. … While TV channels increasingly filled their on-air ranks with former CIA and FBI officials, another telltale sign of authoritarian drift, a whole range of private press interests were accused of treasonous collaboration and threatened with new forms of suppression. This turned out not to be necessary, as most private news companies voluntarily accepted the logic of denouncing news adverse to the Democratic Party cause as foreign subversion.
I don’t want to excerpt any more of Taibbi’s caustic look at this situation, with one more sentence as an exception. If you find this excerpt interesting, go subscribe to his service and read the rest. Taibbi can’t stand Trump for reasons of both character and policy, but he’s just as disgusted by Biden, Democrats, and the media establishment. This should not be missed:
But his opponents are lying, witch-hunting scum in their own right, a club of censorious bureaucrats whose instincts for democracy and free speech hover somewhere between the mid-seventies GDR and the Church of Scientology.
Taibbi provides an excellent pox-on-all-houses take, some of which I agree with and some I’d contest, but it’s no conspiracy theory to see how intel has been weaponized over the last four-plus years. This still leaves us with the choice to make tomorrow (or already made in early voting). Who do you pick? Vote on policy, as the character considerations more or less cancel each other out — and demand better four years from now.


hotair--2020-11-02--Biden campaign manager: "Under no scenario will Donald Trump be declared a victor on election night"

I ’ m looking for more context on this quote , which has only been reported in journalists ’ tweets thus far .
When I first read it , I thought , “ Wait — is she guaranteeing victory ?
” Then I read it again and thought , “ Wait — is she saying that Democrats will contest the election even if Trump is a clear winner , with victory projected by the networks in Florida and Pennsylvania ?
” Then I read it a third time and realized what she meant ( in all probability ) .
She @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about Trump ’ s plan to try to gaslight the country tomorrow night by insisting that it ’ s wrong to count mail ballots after Election Day even if those ballots arrived weeks ago and state law prevented the counting from starting before November 3 .
It ’ s literally true .
There probably isn ’ t a scenario in which Trump can definitively be said to have won by close of business on Tuesday .
Imagine he has a big night and wins Florida , Georgia , Texas , North Carolina , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s got the race locked up , right ?
Well , no .
Arizona and the big three in the Rust Belt — Michigan , Wisconsin , and of course Pennsylvania — will determine who ’ s president in that case , and unfortunately at least three of those states will be counting votes past Election Day .
( Several counties in PA won ’ t even start counting mail votes until the day after Election Day . )
I recommend bookmarking this FiveThirtyEight post estimating how long it ’ ll take each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be able to get it done by the wee hours on Tuesday night , but MI , PA , and AZ will all spill over into Wednesday and beyond .
And if Biden were to win all three , he ’ d be president — even with Trump winning all the rest .
Furthermore , because everyone understands that mail ballots should trend heavily blue this year , it ’ ll be hard to make a projection on election night in those three states even if Trump is ahead by close of business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instance , he ’ s up eight points in Pennsylvania with 67 percent of the vote ( all in-person voting ) counted .
Let ’ s say exit polls also show that Biden should win the remaining 33 percent of votes ( all mail ballots ) by 25 points .
There ’ s no way to project that race on Tuesday .
Got ta wait for the count .
Although if Biden is underperforming on Wednesday as the counting of mail ballots proceeds , we might get a projection for a Trump victory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ declared the winner on Tuesday by the networks , he ’ d need the sort of mind-bending blowout in same-day voting that only people who populate MAGA Facebook groups believe is in the offing .
If he ’ s up 25 in PA by midnight Tuesday , say , then networks will feel comfortable enough that that lead is insurmountable to call it for him even with millions of mail ballots still uncounted .
But that ’ s an almost unimaginable outcome .
So , yeah , realistically Trump will need to wait @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the victor .
The situation is a bit different for Biden , who by picking a few big Trump states early might be declared the winner on election night .
If he wins Florida or Texas or Georgia or North Carolina , we ’ d have a decent sense of which way the wind is blowing .
If he wins more than one of those states , it ’ ll be obvious .
And in the Rust Belt , if the race is surprisingly close after all the in-person votes are counted , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the blue-trending mail ballots yet to be counted will carry Biden to victory .
But if you had to bet , you ’ d bet that the race won ’ t be called for Biden either .
Imagine that he loses Florida , Georgia , Texas , Ohio , and Iowa , but pulls the upset in North Carolina .
That ’ s a big pick-up ; with NC in his pocket , he can win the presidency with Michigan and Wisconsin and no longer needs to worry about Pennsylvania .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to count , there ’ ll be no way to project the outcomes there on Tuesday night unless one candidate or the other has grossly underperformed among the in-person ballots .
All of which is a long way of saying that a Biden blowout is the only scenario that ’ s plausible tomorrow in which we might know who won when we all go to sleep .
Under no scenario will Trump be declared a victor on election night ; under most scenarios Biden won ’ t either .
As I was writing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emerged .
Yep , she ’ s trying to counterprogram Trump ’ s scheme to claim that he won before most of the mail ballots in the Rust Belt have been counted , which is like a football coach insisting that the game should be declared over after the third quarter if his team ’ s ahead .
Even though the vast , vast , vast majority of mail voters will have sent their ballots in before in-person voters went to the polls on Election Day , he ’ s going to try @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were somehow shady and delinquent .
Benjamin Ginsberg is one of the most well-known Republican lawyers specializing in election disputes in the U.S.
He ’ s been fighting for the GOP in ballot battles for years .
He ’ s so disgusted by Team Trump ’ s attempt to cast doubt on valid votes this year to try to give the president a face-saving way of claiming he was cheated if he loses that he dropped this op-ed last night .
Proof of systematic fraud has become the Loch Ness Monster of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lot of time looking for it , but it doesn ’ t exist… Trump has enlisted a compliant Republican Party in this shameful effort .
The Trump campaign and Republican entities engaged in more than 40 voting and ballot court cases around the country this year .
In exactly none — zero — are they trying to make it easier for citizens to vote .
In many , they are seeking to erect barriers… This attempted disenfranchisement of voters can not be justified by the unproven Republican dogma about widespread fraud .
Challenging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legitimacy of mail-in ballots isn ’ t about fraud .
Rather than producing conservative policies that appeal to suburban women , young voters or racial minorities , Republicans are trying to exclude their votes… The Republican challenging effort is focused almost exclusively in heavily Democratic areas .
Signature mismatches will go unheeded by Trump forces in friendly precincts .
This is not about finding fraud and irregularities .
It ’ s about suppressing the number of votes not cast for Trump .
As others have noted about Trump ’ s strategy , you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time and energy scheming to get ballots for the other guy thrown out if you think you ’ re going to win fair and square .
What ’ s most remarkable , though , is that the campaign and its allies aren ’ t disguising what the game is .
They ’ re not devoting much time to substantiating their claims that “ voter fraud ” is afoot ; they ’ re just flat out saying that they ’ re trying to get Democratic ballots disqualified , fraudulent or not .
“ Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the president wins Ohio and Florida is too close to call early in the night , depriving Mr. Biden a swift victory and giving Mr. Trump the room to undermine the validity of uncounted mail-in ballots in the days after , ” the Times reported this weekend .
Yesterday Jason Miller went on national television and casually insisted that counting votes after Election Day if Trump is ahead in the in-person voting would amount to “ stealing ” the election — even though , again , nearly all of those mail ballots arrived @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no dispute as to their validity .
You may remember Spencer Cox , the GOP candidate for governor in Utah , from the ad he cut with his Democratic opponent a few weeks ago .
That ad called for civility and respecting civic norms in the aftermath of an election .
Last night Cox called BS on Miller and Trump : He ’ s entirely right that elections never , ever end on election night .
Projections of the outcome are made by the media on election night , but nothing official ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ count the votes , at least in states where they don ’ t begin counting mail ballots early , as they should .
Which brings us to our exit question : If the president is so agitated by Pennsylvania and Michigan counting ballots after Election Day , why didn ’ t he use his soapbox to demand that the laws be changed in each state to have the counting begin sooner ?
That ’ s what his home state of Florida does ; they start opening the mail votes early , tally them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the in-person Election Day votes to give us the final outcome on election night .
Trump could have insisted upon that .
Instead it was *Republicans* in Pennsylvania who blocked efforts to speed up the counting this year , with no objection from POTUS .
He and they have manufactured an unnecessary delay in vote-counting , and now they ’ re going to exploit that manufactured delay to suggest that something nefarious is going on because the votes are being counted after Election Day .
As seedy and cynical a business as American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ something that cynical again .

I’m looking for more context on this quote, which has only been reported in journalists’ tweets thus far. When I first read it, I thought, “Wait — is she guaranteeing victory?”
Then I read it again and thought, “Wait — is she saying that Democrats will contest the election even if Trump is a clear winner, with victory projected by the networks in Florida and Pennsylvania?”
Then I read it a third time and realized what she meant (in all probability). She’s responding to this Axios scoop about Trump’s plan to try to gaslight the country tomorrow night by insisting that it’s wrong to count mail ballots after Election Day even if those ballots arrived weeks ago and state law prevented the counting from starting before November 3.
"Under no scenario will Donald Trump be declared a victor on Election Night," says Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon on a zoom with reporters. — Dave Catanese (@davecatanese) November 2, 2020
It’s literally true. There probably isn’t a scenario in which Trump can definitively be said to have won by close of business on Tuesday. Imagine he has a big night and wins Florida, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio. He’s got the race locked up, right? Well, no. Arizona and the big three in the Rust Belt — Michigan, Wisconsin, and of course Pennsylvania — will determine who’s president in that case, and unfortunately at least three of those states will be counting votes past Election Day. (Several counties in PA won’t even start counting mail votes until the day after Election Day.) I recommend bookmarking this FiveThirtyEight post estimating how long it’ll take each state to finish counting. Wisconsin might be able to get it done by the wee hours on Tuesday night, but MI, PA, and AZ will all spill over into Wednesday and beyond.
And if Biden were to win all three, he’d be president — even with Trump winning all the rest. Furthermore, because everyone understands that mail ballots should trend heavily blue this year, it’ll be hard to make a projection on election night in those three states even if Trump is ahead by close of business. Let’s say, for instance, he’s up eight points in Pennsylvania with 67 percent of the vote (all in-person voting) counted. Let’s say exit polls also show that Biden should win the remaining 33 percent of votes (all mail ballots) by 25 points. There’s no way to project that race on Tuesday. Gotta wait for the count. Although if Biden is underperforming on Wednesday as the counting of mail ballots proceeds, we might get a projection for a Trump victory that day.
For Trump to be declared the winner on Tuesday by the networks, he’d need the sort of mind-bending blowout in same-day voting that only people who populate MAGA Facebook groups believe is in the offing. If he’s up 25 in PA by midnight Tuesday, say, then networks will feel comfortable enough that that lead is insurmountable to call it for him even with millions of mail ballots still uncounted. But that’s an almost unimaginable outcome.
So, yeah, realistically Trump will need to wait until at least Wednesday to be declared the victor. The situation is a bit different for Biden, who by picking a few big Trump states early might be declared the winner on election night. If he wins Florida or Texas or Georgia or North Carolina, we’d have a decent sense of which way the wind is blowing. If he wins more than one of those states, it’ll be obvious. And in the Rust Belt, if the race is surprisingly close after all the in-person votes are counted, it’ll be a safe bet that the blue-trending mail ballots yet to be counted will carry Biden to victory.
But if you had to bet, you’d bet that the race won’t be called for Biden either. Imagine that he loses Florida, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa, but pulls the upset in North Carolina. That’s a big pick-up; with NC in his pocket, he can win the presidency with Michigan and Wisconsin and no longer needs to worry about Pennsylvania. But since MI and PA will take days to count, there’ll be no way to project the outcomes there on Tuesday night unless one candidate or the other has grossly underperformed among the in-person ballots.
All of which is a long way of saying that a Biden blowout is the only scenario that’s plausible tomorrow in which we might know who won when we all go to sleep. Under no scenario will Trump be declared a victor on election night; under most scenarios Biden won’t either.
As I was writing this post, the video of Dillon emerged. Yep, she’s trying to counterprogram Trump’s scheme to claim that he won before most of the mail ballots in the Rust Belt have been counted, which is like a football coach insisting that the game should be declared over after the third quarter if his team’s ahead. Even though the vast, vast, vast majority of mail voters will have sent their ballots in before in-person voters went to the polls on Election Day, he’s going to try to convince people that those mail votes were somehow shady and delinquent.
Biden campaign manager @jomalleydillon: "Under no scenario will Donald Trump be declared a victor on Election Night." pic.twitter.com/znvLmxx9YZ — The Recount (@therecount) November 2, 2020
Benjamin Ginsberg is one of the most well-known Republican lawyers specializing in election disputes in the U.S. He’s been fighting for the GOP in ballot battles for years. He’s so disgusted by Team Trump’s attempt to cast doubt on valid votes this year to try to give the president a face-saving way of claiming he was cheated if he loses that he dropped this op-ed last night.
Proof of systematic fraud has become the Loch Ness Monster of the Republican Party. People have spent a lot of time looking for it, but it doesn’t exist… Trump has enlisted a compliant Republican Party in this shameful effort. The Trump campaign and Republican entities engaged in more than 40 voting and ballot court cases around the country this year. In exactly none — zero — are they trying to make it easier for citizens to vote. In many, they are seeking to erect barriers… This attempted disenfranchisement of voters cannot be justified by the unproven Republican dogma about widespread fraud. Challenging voters at the polls or disputing the legitimacy of mail-in ballots isn’t about fraud. Rather than producing conservative policies that appeal to suburban women, young voters or racial minorities, Republicans are trying to exclude their votes… The Republican challenging effort is focused almost exclusively in heavily Democratic areas. Signature mismatches will go unheeded by Trump forces in friendly precincts. This is not about finding fraud and irregularities. It’s about suppressing the number of votes not cast for Trump.
As others have noted about Trump’s strategy, you don’t spend a lot of time and energy scheming to get ballots for the other guy thrown out if you think you’re going to win fair and square. What’s most remarkable, though, is that the campaign and its allies aren’t disguising what the game is. They’re not devoting much time to substantiating their claims that “voter fraud” is afoot; they’re just flat out saying that they’re trying to get Democratic ballots disqualified, fraudulent or not. “Trump advisers said their best hope was if the president wins Ohio and Florida is too close to call early in the night, depriving Mr. Biden a swift victory and giving Mr. Trump the room to undermine the validity of uncounted mail-in ballots in the days after,” the Times reported this weekend. Yesterday Jason Miller went on national television and casually insisted that counting votes after Election Day if Trump is ahead in the in-person voting would amount to “stealing” the election — even though, again, nearly all of those mail ballots arrived before November 3 and there’s no dispute as to their validity.
Jason Miller: "If you speak with many smart Dems, they believe that Trump will be ahead on election night … and then [Dems will] try to steal it back after the election." pic.twitter.com/FMApbmVlRa — The Recount (@therecount) November 1, 2020
You may remember Spencer Cox, the GOP candidate for governor in Utah, from the ad he cut with his Democratic opponent a few weeks ago. That ad called for civility and respecting civic norms in the aftermath of an election. Last night Cox called BS on Miller and Trump:
…every eligible vote is counted and each county canvasses and certifies the vote totals. Yes it’s true that when a race isn’t close the media may “call” the race, and candidates may concede or declare custody, but such actions are technically meaningless. 2/ pic.twitter.com/byPWRaH5tA — Spencer Cox (@SpencerJCox) November 1, 2020
He’s entirely right that elections never, ever end on election night. Projections of the outcome are made by the media on election night, but nothing official ever happens. It always takes days to count the votes, at least in states where they don’t begin counting mail ballots early, as they should. Which brings us to our exit question: If the president is so agitated by Pennsylvania and Michigan counting ballots after Election Day, why didn’t he use his soapbox to demand that the laws be changed in each state to have the counting begin sooner? That’s what his home state of Florida does; they start opening the mail votes early, tally them up, and then they add in the in-person Election Day votes to give us the final outcome on election night. Trump could have insisted upon that. Instead it was *Republicans* in Pennsylvania who blocked efforts to speed up the counting this year, with no objection from POTUS. He and they have manufactured an unnecessary delay in vote-counting, and now they’re going to exploit that manufactured delay to suggest that something nefarious is going on because the votes are being counted after Election Day. As seedy and cynical a business as American politics is, we may never see something that cynical again.


hotair--2020-11-02--A Halloween night protest by Northwestern students demanding police abolition turned violent

This protest/riot was organized by a Northwestern University group called NU Community Not Cops which issued a list of demands including that the school disband the campus police force .
Saturday night a group of about 150 turned out and things quickly got out of hand with one police officer injured and 18 reports of vandalism in the town of Evanston : Students shared a video with CBS 2 showing firecrackers used as a smaller group of students came face to face with Evanston police with backup from other local police departments .
Protesters have been marching in support of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since Oct. 12 , but students say a small group of demonstrators Saturday night turned more aggressive as they broke windows downtown , spray-painting buildings and launching those fireworks .
Evanston ’ s police chief says that is when officers moved in .
“ ” We allowed them to do a peaceful assembly and we would have let it ride until they turned to violence with bricks , battering some of our officers .
They had shields , ” said Evanston police Chief Demitrous Cook .
“ So after that it was time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re not going to let people just come in here and tear up the City of Evanston.
” A reporter for the student newspaper was on hand Saturday night .
She reported that the goal from the start was to escalate protests that have been going on for weeks : The goal , one protestor said , was to disrupt past the point of what the University would deem acceptable .
“ The University has not responded to what they call a ‘ respectable protest , ’ ” one protestor and NUCNC member @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so people can ignore it .
The purpose of protest is to disrupt the normalcy of life.
” “ We ’ re really here just to show them what sense of urgency we have , ” they added .
“ And how serious we are about abolition.
” The same article is completely sympathetic to the protesters and frames them as victims of aggressive police , but here ’ s how the author describes what prompted police to use pepper spray : According to several organizers in the back of the crowd , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ east on Church Street , they eventually tried to go around the side of the group .
In order to prevent the group from being surrounded , an organizer said , they started calling for protestors with bikes to block the sidewalk so officers could not pass… Without enough bikes , when one protestor moved to the sidewalk and refused to move , she was immediately surrounded by several police , the organizers said .
Several protestors in the back row of the crowd attempted to intervene to prevent the arrest but were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forcefully and unleashed pepper spray .
So , the protest organizers ordered people with bikes to get in the way of police .
Police then surrounded one of these people trying to block them and arrested her .
Protesters tried to intervene , i.e .
they scuffled with police to prevent the arrest .
Finally , police responded to these efforts to interfere with an arrest by using pepper spray and pushing people back .
It ’ s clear that police were responding to the escalation by protesters .
Meanwhile , the Mayor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president a letter saying , in part , that he expected the school to cover the cost of overtime for police and that protest organizers should be reminded that police officers , “ also have families and their safety is as important as the safety of the protesters.
” Law professor Jonathan Turley published a piece today pointing out that Northwestern University president Morton Schapiro has a history of supporting woke extremism on campus , including endorsing safe spaces and trash-talking free speech advocates : Schapiro never supported violence and correctly condemned the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ However , he has long been one of the most prominent advocates of protections from free speech rather than for free speech on campus .
He is viewed by many as yielding to the rising intolerance on campus while treating the exercise free speech as potentially harmful to students .
This includes his advocacy of “ safe zones ” to protect students from the trauma and harm caused by dissenting views or opposing values .
Under his leadership , Northwestern has been given the lowest rating for the protection of free speech by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ walked back calling free speech advocates “ idiots ” in a commencement speech , he remains one of most vocal voices against free speech protections .
You may recall that back in 2017 a professor at Northwestern invited a representative from ICE to come to her class to have a discussion on immigration policy .
A group of woke students disrupted the class , forcing the professor to cancel it .
At the time President Schapiro expressed his disappointment .
Now , a few years later , it seems he ’ s really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ woke students .
The same group that broke windows and threw things at police Saturday night previous came to Schapiro ’ s home on at least two occasions .
Two weeks ago , President Schapiro denounced the protesters in language that sounds like it could have been written by Tucker Carlson : “ I condemn , in the strongest possible terms , the overstepping of the protesters , ” Schapiro wrote .
“ They have no right to menace members of our academic and surrounding communities.
” Schapiro also referenced protesters who showed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ twice in the past week .
On Saturday , demonstrators burned the “ We ’ re N This Together ” banner that previously hung on The Arch and left it in front of the president ’ s house near the officers who guarded it… “ If you haven ’ t yet gotten my point , I am disgusted by those who chose to disgrace this University in such a fashion , ” Schapiro wrote .
“ To those protesters and their supporters who justify such actions , I ask you to take a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ realize that this isn ’ t actually ‘ speaking truth to power ’ or furthering your cause , ” Schapiro wrote .
“ It is an abomination and you should be ashamed of yourselves.
” He ’ s absolutely right about the woke protesters but the question is what he ’ s willing to do about it .
Will he make sure students damaging property and injuring police are suspended or expelled ?
Or will he talk tough and continue to let the far-left extremists walk all over him ?
That statement from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but that doesn ’ t necessarily mean anyone is going to follow through on it .
Needless to say , if some right wing student group had gone out and done this they would all have been expelled by now .
But the extremists on the left never seem to face any real consequences , only empty threats .
Here ’ s a WGN report on the situation this weekend .
And for the record , I have no idea why this reporter has a charming Irish accent .

This protest/riot was organized by a Northwestern University group called NU Community Not Cops which issued a list of demands including that the school disband the campus police force. Saturday night a group of about 150 turned out and things quickly got out of hand with one police officer injured and 18 reports of vandalism in the town of Evanston:
Students shared a video with CBS 2 showing firecrackers used as a smaller group of students came face to face with Evanston police with backup from other local police departments. Protesters have been marching in support of abolishing campus police that effort every day since Oct. 12, but students say a small group of demonstrators Saturday night turned more aggressive as they broke windows downtown, spray-painting buildings and launching those fireworks. Evanston’s police chief says that is when officers moved in. “”We allowed them to do a peaceful assembly and we would have let it ride until they turned to violence with bricks, battering some of our officers. They had shields,” said Evanston police Chief Demitrous Cook. “So after that it was time to send a message that we’re not going to let people just come in here and tear up the City of Evanston.”
A reporter for the student newspaper was on hand Saturday night. She reported that the goal from the start was to escalate protests that have been going on for weeks:
The goal, one protestor said, was to disrupt past the point of what the University would deem acceptable. “The University has not responded to what they call a ‘respectable protest,’” one protestor and NUCNC member said. “Respectable protest is respectable so people can ignore it. The purpose of protest is to disrupt the normalcy of life.” “We’re really here just to show them what sense of urgency we have,” they added. “And how serious we are about abolition.”
The same article is completely sympathetic to the protesters and frames them as victims of aggressive police, but here’s how the author describes what prompted police to use pepper spray:
According to several organizers in the back of the crowd, as police continued to follow the crowd east on Church Street, they eventually tried to go around the side of the group. In order to prevent the group from being surrounded, an organizer said, they started calling for protestors with bikes to block the sidewalk so officers could not pass… Without enough bikes, when one protestor moved to the sidewalk and refused to move, she was immediately surrounded by several police, the organizers said. Several protestors in the back row of the crowd attempted to intervene to prevent the arrest but were unsuccessful. The police shoved them back forcefully and unleashed pepper spray.
So, the protest organizers ordered people with bikes to get in the way of police. Police then surrounded one of these people trying to block them and arrested her. Protesters tried to intervene, i.e. they scuffled with police to prevent the arrest. Finally, police responded to these efforts to interfere with an arrest by using pepper spray and pushing people back. It’s clear that police were responding to the escalation by protesters.
Northwestern issued a statement condemning the destructive behavior:
As we have stated before, Northwestern strongly supports the free expression of ideas and vigorous debate, abiding principles that are fundamental to our University. Northwestern protects the right to protest, but we do not condone breaking the law. Should members of the Northwestern community be found in violation of University policies, state or federal laws, they will be held accountable through our processes.
Meanwhile, the Mayor of Evanston sent the school’s president a letter saying, in part, that he expected the school to cover the cost of overtime for police and that protest organizers should be reminded that police officers, “also have families and their safety is as important as the safety of the protesters.”
Law professor Jonathan Turley published a piece today pointing out that Northwestern University president Morton Schapiro has a history of supporting woke extremism on campus, including endorsing safe spaces and trash-talking free speech advocates:
Schapiro never supported violence and correctly condemned the recent attacks on businesses and police. However, he has long been one of the most prominent advocates of protections from free speech rather than for free speech on campus. He is viewed by many as yielding to the rising intolerance on campus while treating the exercise free speech as potentially harmful to students. This includes his advocacy of “safe zones” to protect students from the trauma and harm caused by dissenting views or opposing values. Under his leadership, Northwestern has been given the lowest rating for the protection of free speech by groups like FIRE. While he later walked back calling free speech advocates “idiots” in a commencement speech, he remains one of most vocal voices against free speech protections.
You may recall that back in 2017 a professor at Northwestern invited a representative from ICE to come to her class to have a discussion on immigration policy. A group of woke students disrupted the class, forcing the professor to cancel it. At the time President Schapiro expressed his disappointment. Now, a few years later, it seems he’s really grown tired of the disruptions caused by woke students. The same group that broke windows and threw things at police Saturday night previous came to Schapiro’s home on at least two occasions. Two weeks ago, President Schapiro denounced the protesters in language that sounds like it could have been written by Tucker Carlson:
“I condemn, in the strongest possible terms, the overstepping of the protesters,” Schapiro wrote. “They have no right to menace members of our academic and surrounding communities.” Schapiro also referenced protesters who showed up outside of his house at least twice in the past week. On Saturday, demonstrators burned the “We’re N This Together” banner that previously hung on The Arch and left it in front of the president’s house near the officers who guarded it… “If you haven’t yet gotten my point, I am disgusted by those who chose to disgrace this University in such a fashion,” Schapiro wrote. “To those protesters and their supporters who justify such actions, I ask you to take a long hard look in the mirror and realize that this isn’t actually ‘speaking truth to power’ or furthering your cause,” Schapiro wrote. “It is an abomination and you should be ashamed of yourselves.”
He’s absolutely right about the woke protesters but the question is what he’s willing to do about it. Will he make sure students damaging property and injuring police are suspended or expelled? Or will he talk tough and continue to let the far-left extremists walk all over him? That statement from the school I quoted above threatens consequences but that doesn’t necessarily mean anyone is going to follow through on it.
Needless to say, if some right wing student group had gone out and done this they would all have been expelled by now. But the extremists on the left never seem to face any real consequences, only empty threats.
Here’s a WGN report on the situation this weekend. And for the record, I have no idea why this reporter has a charming Irish accent.