hotair--2020-11-11--Why was Texas the first state to surpass 1 million COVID-19 cases?  Here are some reasons.

Texas has become the first state to surpass the 1 million case mark in the battle against the coronavirus pandemic .
No state wants to be the winner of this title .
It looks like the third wave of the virus is upon the state with no end in sight .
It ’ s deja vu all over again .
How did Texas get here ?
As with everything else with this virus , none of the experts can point to one specific reason so many are offering up some educated guesses .
The count found on the Johns Hopkins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is 1,010,364 coronavirus cases with 19,337 deaths since the pandemic began in early March .
Texas , the second-most populous state , recently surpassed California , the most populous state , in recording the highest number of positive coronavirus tests .
The reality is that there are likely many more cases that haven ’ t been recorded because people are not getting tested or because people can be infected and not feel any symptoms .
According to the Johns Hopkins data , if Texas was its own country ( it was once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rank 10th in terms of total cases , surpassing European hot spots like Italy .
Texas recorded 10,865 cases on Tuesday , setting a new daily record that surpassed by 74 cases an old mark set July 15 , state officials said .
According to state figures on Tuesday , an estimated 132,146 cases are active , the most since Aug. 17 , and 6,170 COVID-19 cases are hospitalized , the most since Aug. 18 .
There were 94 new deaths Tuesday , according to the Texas Department of State Health Services .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ causes COVID-19 are surging in the Laredo area as the borderlands remained a COVID-19 hotbed Tuesday , health officials said .
Laredo health officials reported 331 new cases Tuesday of the coronavirus , the most since the Aug. 10 peak of 374 cases .
That brought the area ’ s case count for the pandemic since the beginning of March to 16,558 .
Of those , 934 cases are active , the most in two months , and 73 require hospitalization .
One new death was reported Tuesday , bringing the city ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The surge comes as El Paso , another border city , grapples with a recent tsunami of cases .
Another 1,292 cases were reported in El Paso County on Tuesday , bringing its pandemic count to 65,651 with 27,895 cases now active and 1,076 requiring hospitalization .
Nine new deaths brought the county ’ s COVID-19 death toll to 682 .
Keep in mind that Texas is the home of about 29 million people .
The statistics show 3,508 cases per 100,000 Texans , which is still lower than about half the states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that Texas recorded more newly recorded cases of COVID-19 last week than any other state last week .
The average was about 8,520 daily , with only Illinois recording more .
On Tuesday , Texas reported more than 11,500 new cases , the highest number since the summer peak in July .
The state is not heading in the right direction .
Experts are weighing in with their opinions as to why the third wave of cases is upon us now .
Politics weighs heavily in the reasons presented .
This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we roll now , especially during a presidential election year , right ?
Dr. David Callender , president of the Memorial Hermann Health System , was quick to point a finger at “ political statements ” .
“ It ’ s not a surprise in the context of all that ’ s happened , ” Callender said .
“ But it ’ s a significant number — 3 percent of the population — and cause for worry about the trend continuing as we go forward.
” Callender attributed the high number to “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to contain the virus .
“ To me , politics entered in an inappropriate way , ” he said .
“ People making a political statement with their behavior — that the pandemic is a hoax , that no one can make them wear a mask — really interfered with efforts .
It was the wrong mindset.
” Dr. Callender didn ’ t weigh in on possible superspreader events like the summer BLM protests and the medical professionals in white coats who joined in those protests in cities like Houston .
Dr. Peter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Medicine ’ s National School of Tropical Medicine and co-director of Texas Children ’ s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development , declares , “ The worst is maybe yet to come.
” How ’ s that for a hedge with his wording – “ maybe ” .
Or , maybe not , I guess .
He blames the Trump administration for what he calls a lack of a national plan .
This is his standard criticism .
He submitted his own ideas for a national plan to the White House coronavirus task force @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sound bitter that they didn ’ t use his plan .
He is a fan of national lockdowns but he is offering up some encouraging words on the success of vaccine development .
Some experts are busy blaming Governor Abbott ’ s approach to the virus .
A frequent criticism is that he tried to re-open Texas businesses too quickly and often sparred with local officials , especially in large metro areas who favored keeping lockdowns in place .
The governor ’ s office is pushing back on that .
Renae Eze , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , said in a statement that state leaders are working closely with local officials to deal with spikes in hospitalizations and that Texas is preparing to distribute upcoming treatments for COVID-19 when they become available .
Eze said the state ’ s efforts will only work if Texans do their part .
“ The reality is , COVID-19 still exists in Texas and across the globe , and Texans should continue to take this virus seriously and do their part by social distancing , washing their hands and wearing a mask , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health authority for the city of Houston , sounds a little more reasonable than other experts .
He says it is unfortunate that politics have taken over discussions about the pandemic but more than politics have played a part in the rise of recorded cases .
Dr. Paul Klotman , president of Baylor College of Medicine , says the numbers are inevitable due to the population of the state and how quickly the virus spreads .
He isn ’ t alarmed with the million cases mark as much as he is the 100,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says that masks and social distancing remain the best hope to stop the virus from spreading .
He points to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic .
It went away , he says , because people adopted similar practices .
Whether you blame politicians or the medical community for bad advice and slow reactions , coronavirus fatigue is real .
The lockdowns that decimate businesses and the stress of trying to stay healthy are real .
Everything that happened played a part in what is happening now .
We can hope we end 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is soon to be available to everyone who will take one .
There is plenty of time for lessons learned later .

Texas has become the first state to surpass the 1 million case mark in the battle against the coronavirus pandemic. No state wants to be the winner of this title. It looks like the third wave of the virus is upon the state with no end in sight. It’s deja vu all over again.
How did Texas get here? As with everything else with this virus, none of the experts can point to one specific reason so many are offering up some educated guesses. The count found on the Johns Hopkins University website, as of Wednesday morning, is 1,010,364 coronavirus cases with 19,337 deaths since the pandemic began in early March. Texas, the second-most populous state, recently surpassed California, the most populous state, in recording the highest number of positive coronavirus tests. The reality is that there are likely many more cases that haven’t been recorded because people are not getting tested or because people can be infected and not feel any symptoms. According to the Johns Hopkins data, if Texas was its own country (it was once, you know), it would rank 10th in terms of total cases, surpassing European hot spots like Italy.
Texas recorded 10,865 cases on Tuesday, setting a new daily record that surpassed by 74 cases an old mark set July 15, state officials said. According to state figures on Tuesday, an estimated 132,146 cases are active, the most since Aug. 17, and 6,170 COVID-19 cases are hospitalized, the most since Aug. 18. There were 94 new deaths Tuesday, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services. Meanwhile, cases of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 are surging in the Laredo area as the borderlands remained a COVID-19 hotbed Tuesday, health officials said. Laredo health officials reported 331 new cases Tuesday of the coronavirus, the most since the Aug. 10 peak of 374 cases. That brought the area’s case count for the pandemic since the beginning of March to 16,558. Of those, 934 cases are active, the most in two months, and 73 require hospitalization. One new death was reported Tuesday, bringing the city’s COVID-19 death toll to 367. The surge comes as El Paso, another border city, grapples with a recent tsunami of cases. Another 1,292 cases were reported in El Paso County on Tuesday, bringing its pandemic count to 65,651 with 27,895 cases now active and 1,076 requiring hospitalization. Nine new deaths brought the county’s COVID-19 death toll to 682.
Keep in mind that Texas is the home of about 29 million people. The statistics show 3,508 cases per 100,000 Texans, which is still lower than about half the states in the country. The concern now is that Texas recorded more newly recorded cases of COVID-19 last week than any other state last week. The average was about 8,520 daily, with only Illinois recording more. On Tuesday, Texas reported more than 11,500 new cases, the highest number since the summer peak in July. The state is not heading in the right direction.
Experts are weighing in with their opinions as to why the third wave of cases is upon us now. Politics weighs heavily in the reasons presented. This is 2020 and it’s just how we roll now, especially during a presidential election year, right? Dr. David Callender, president of the Memorial Hermann Health System, was quick to point a finger at “political statements”.
“It’s not a surprise in the context of all that’s happened,” Callender said. “But it’s a significant number — 3 percent of the population — and cause for worry about the trend continuing as we go forward.” Callender attributed the high number to “too much division” in the attempt to contain the virus. “To me, politics entered in an inappropriate way,” he said. “People making a political statement with their behavior — that the pandemic is a hoax, that no one can make them wear a mask — really interfered with efforts. It was the wrong mindset.”
Dr. Callender didn’t weigh in on possible superspreader events like the summer BLM protests and the medical professionals in white coats who joined in those protests in cities like Houston.
Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of Baylor College of Medicine’s National School of Tropical Medicine and co-director of Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, declares, “The worst is maybe yet to come.” How’s that for a hedge with his wording – “maybe”. Or, maybe not, I guess. He blames the Trump administration for what he calls a lack of a national plan. This is his standard criticism. He submitted his own ideas for a national plan to the White House coronavirus task force several months ago and he continues to sound bitter that they didn’t use his plan. He is a fan of national lockdowns but he is offering up some encouraging words on the success of vaccine development.
Hotez, a leading expert on the coronavirus, placed the blame for the rising number of coronavirus cases in Texas squarely on the Trump administration for downplaying the severity of the pandemic and attempting to discredit scientists who urged the public to wear masks and practice social distancing. “Had we had a national plan, a national road map, most of those cases could have been avoided,” Hotez said.
Some experts are busy blaming Governor Abbott’s approach to the virus. A frequent criticism is that he tried to re-open Texas businesses too quickly and often sparred with local officials, especially in large metro areas who favored keeping lockdowns in place. The governor’s office is pushing back on that.
Renae Eze, spokeswoman for the governor’s office, said in a statement that state leaders are working closely with local officials to deal with spikes in hospitalizations and that Texas is preparing to distribute upcoming treatments for COVID-19 when they become available. Eze said the state’s efforts will only work if Texans do their part. “The reality is, COVID-19 still exists in Texas and across the globe, and Texans should continue to take this virus seriously and do their part by social distancing, washing their hands and wearing a mask,” Eze said.
Dr. David Persse, health authority for the city of Houston, sounds a little more reasonable than other experts. He says it is unfortunate that politics have taken over discussions about the pandemic but more than politics have played a part in the rise of recorded cases.
“We got to 1 million cases because of the difficulty containing a virus able to infect people and not cause symptoms,” said Persse. “That means people spread it unknowingly.” Persse added that COVID-19 numbers accumulated because the failures came in stages: initially, many were slow to get the message and didn’t take it seriously; over time, many became resistant for political reasons; and, more recently, fatigue has weakened some people’s resolve. The state’s positive test rate is now 11.63 percent, compared to 7.35 percent a month ago.
Dr. Paul Klotman, president of Baylor College of Medicine, says the numbers are inevitable due to the population of the state and how quickly the virus spreads. He isn’t alarmed with the million cases mark as much as he is the 100,000 new cases a day nationally. He says that masks and social distancing remain the best hope to stop the virus from spreading. He points to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. It went away, he says, because people adopted similar practices.
Whether you blame politicians or the medical community for bad advice and slow reactions, coronavirus fatigue is real. The lockdowns that decimate businesses and the stress of trying to stay healthy are real. Everything that happened played a part in what is happening now. We can hope we end 2020 on a hopeful note that a vaccine is soon to be available to everyone who will take one. There is plenty of time for lessons learned later.


hotair--2020-11-11--Loeffler: Do you want a Castro-cheering Senator, Georgia voters? <span class='red'>Update: "One of t

Loeffler: Do you want a Castro-cheering Senator, Georgia voters? Update: "One of the most vocal defenders" of Jeremiah Wright?

We can safely assume the answer will be no , but Kelly Loeffler won ’ t leave that to chance .
Our friend Reagan Battalion dug up this nugget from 1995 , when Fidel Castro paid a visit to the UN but could not wander more than 25 miles of Turtle Bay .
The Cuban dictator paid a visit to Harlem ’ s Abyssinian Baptist Church , where Castro got a hero ’ s welcome , and then … well , the Miami Herald covered it at the time , and Fox News quoted it last night : Castro received @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Church in Harlem , where Warnock worked at the time .
The Miami Herald reported at the time that Castro “ blast [ ed ] the United States with the vigor that was missing from his speech to the United Nations earlier in the day and winding up the evening with a rousing rendition of the socialist hymn Internationale.
” In C-SPAN footage of the event , head pastor Calvin Butts appears to praise Castro , prompting chants of “ Fidel !
Fidel !
Fidel !
” from the audience .
A translation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wondering why he was welcomed at the church , and noting that he changed from his business suit into military fatigues as he prepared for the event .
He also described the blockade as “ crazy ” and “ obsolete.
” What appears to be additional footage on YouTube pans to the audience cheering Castro .
The head pastor was Calvin Butts , and still is .
Butts tells Fox News that they welcomed Castro as part of the church ’ s “ tradition to welcome those who are visionary , who are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of all of the people around the world.
” Freedom under Castro is a rather elastic term , then and now .
The cheering for Castro ’ s anti-American speech and singing of the Internationale speak pretty clearly for themselves .
But do they speak for Ralph Warnock , the man who will contend for one of Georgia ’ s two US Senate seats in the January 5 runoff ?
The Rev .
Warnock worked at Abyssinian Baptist at the time of Fidel ’ s appearance , and apparently Warnock at the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s tradition too .
Loeffler wants Georgia voters to note it as well : Warnock ’ s campaign denied the candidate had anything to do with the Castro event : Warnock ’ s campaign disputes the importance of his role at the church at the time , claiming that he was a junior member of the church staff that was not involved in the decision-making process .
“ Twenty-five years ago , Reverend Warnock was a youth pastor and was not involved in any decisions at that time , ” a spokesperson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whether or not Warnock attended that particular event .
The campaign added that Warnock served as a youth pastor when the speech in question occurred and became an “ assistant pastor ” later in his tenure at the church .
That ’ s not a great answer to the allegation , however .
Castro ’ s demonstration clearly didn ’ t repel Warnock at the time or later — in fact , he became even more involved at Abyssinian after Castro ’ s appearance .
Clearly , Warnock at least felt comfortable with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if not outright supportive of it .
There ’ s no record that Warnock criticized the invitation or Castro for his speech at it — and if there were any record of it , Warnock ’ s campaign would have had that in its response to this story .
Perhaps Warnock has a good story to tell about youthful flirtations with radicalism and Castroism , and how those experiences gave him the wisdom to put those aside .
If so , Warnock had better start telling those stories , and fast , because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that they aren ’ t interested in progressive Democrats ’ soft Castroism , not even in bluer states than Georgia .
Warnock , the senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta , has for years been one of the most vocal defenders of [ Jeremiah ] Wright ’ s infamous 2003 “ God Damn America ” sermon , which compared U.S. leaders to al Qaeda and claimed HIV was invented by the government as a way to kill black people .
… Warnock has been one of Wright ’ s most consistent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ praised Wright ’ s “ God Damn America ” sermon in a speech at the Auburn Avenue Research Library .
“ You ought to go back and see if you can find and read , as I have , the entire sermon .
It was a very fine sermon .
And Jeremiah Wright was right when he said the attack on him was in a real sense an attack on the black church , ” Warnock said .
“ The message of Jeremiah Wright was that public policy has consequences.
” In another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s sermon “ a very fine homily.
” In his 2013 book , The Divided Mind of the Black Church , Warnock compared Wright ’ s insights to those of the biblical prophet Jeremiah .
Power Line ’ s Scott Johnson points us to this Warnock rant against Israel in 2018 , captured by Jewish Insider ’ s Jacob Kornbluh : In an editorial shared with Jewish Insider on Monday afternoon , titled “ I Stand with Israel , ” Warnock writes , “ Without reservation , you can count on me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Israel in the U.S. Senate.
” Warnock details his position on a number of issues , including his support for the 2016 Memorandum of Understanding , his rejection of conditioning financial aid to Israel and his hope that a two-state solution can be achieved .
Warnock ’ s 2018 sermon was delivered shortly after the opening of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem .
“ It ’ s been a tough week , ” Warnock noted .
“ The administration opened up the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem .
Standing there [ were ] the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mealy-mouthed evangelical preachers who are responsible for the mess that we found ourselves in , both there and here — misquoting and misinterpreting the Scripture , talking about peace.
” Warnock went on to compare the struggle for Palestinian rights with the Black Lives Matter movement .
“ Meanwhile , young Palestinian sisters and brothers , who are struggling for their very lives , struggling for water and struggling for their human dignity stood up in a non-violent protest , saying , ‘ If we ’ re going to die , we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yes , there may have been some folk who were violent , but we oughta know how that works out , ” Warnock said .
“ We know what it ’ s like to stand up and have a peaceful demonstration and have the media focus on a few violent uprisings .
But you have to look at those Palestinian sisters and brothers , who are struggling for their human dignity and they have a right to self-determination , they have a right to breathe free.
” “ We need a two-state solution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can live together , ” Warnock proclaimed in the 2018 video before proceeding to charge Israel with shooting innocent Palestinians .
“ We saw the government of Israel shoot down unarmed Palestinian sisters and brothers like birds of prey .
And I don ’ t care who does it , it is wrong .
It is wrong to shoot down God ’ s children like they don ’ t matter at all .
And it ’ s no more antisemitic for me to say that than it is anti-white for me to say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matter.
” Res ipsa loquitur .
One other thing seems clear , though ; the oppo research strategy has calculated all along for a runoff .
Loeffler and the GOP allowed Democrats to rally behind the most radical and damageable candidate in the race .
Call it the Roy Moore strategy , if you will .

We can safely assume the answer will be no, but Kelly Loeffler won’t leave that to chance. Our friend Reagan Battalion dug up this nugget from 1995, when Fidel Castro paid a visit to the UN but could not wander more than 25 miles of Turtle Bay. The Cuban dictator paid a visit to Harlem’s Abyssinian Baptist Church, where Castro got a hero’s welcome, and then … well, the Miami Herald covered it at the time, and Fox News quoted it last night:
🚨BREAKING: Georgia Senate Democratic Candidate Raphael Warnock hosted a celebration for Communist Dictator and Mass Murderer Fidel Castro at his church in 1995 pic.twitter.com/hQM7QdUU5Z — Reagan Battalion (@ReaganBattalion) November 11, 2020
Castro received a similarly warm reception at Abyssinian Baptist Church in Harlem, where Warnock worked at the time. The Miami Herald reported at the time that Castro “blast[ed] the United States with the vigor that was missing from his speech to the United Nations earlier in the day and winding up the evening with a rousing rendition of the socialist hymn Internationale.” In C-SPAN footage of the event, head pastor Calvin Butts appears to praise Castro, prompting chants of “Fidel! Fidel! Fidel!” from the audience. A translation of Castro’s speech revealed him wondering why he was welcomed at the church, and noting that he changed from his business suit into military fatigues as he prepared for the event. He also described the blockade as “crazy” and “obsolete.” What appears to be additional footage on YouTube pans to the audience cheering Castro.
The head pastor was Calvin Butts, and still is. Butts tells Fox News that they welcomed Castro as part of the church’s “tradition to welcome those who are visionary, who are revolutionary, and who seek the freedom of all of the people around the world.” Freedom under Castro is a rather elastic term, then and now. The cheering for Castro’s anti-American speech and singing of the Internationale speak pretty clearly for themselves.
But do they speak for Raphael Warnock, the man who will contend for one of Georgia’s two US Senate seats in the January 5 runoff? The Rev. Warnock worked at Abyssinian Baptist at the time of Fidel’s appearance, and apparently Warnock at the time felt that Castro fit into the church’s tradition too.
Loeffler wants Georgia voters to note it as well:
🚨 @ReverendWarnock celebrated Fidel Castro & welcomed him to his church. It’s another example of what we’ve been saying all along: He’s the most dangerous and radical candidate in America. https://t.co/rAFhqWq3jg #gapol #gasen — Kelly Loeffler (@KLoeffler) November 10, 2020
Warnock’s campaign denied the candidate had anything to do with the Castro event:
Warnock’s campaign disputes the importance of his role at the church at the time, claiming that he was a junior member of the church staff that was not involved in the decision-making process. “Twenty-five years ago, Reverend Warnock was a youth pastor and was not involved in any decisions at that time,” a spokesperson for the Warnock campaign said without confirming whether or not Warnock attended that particular event. The campaign added that Warnock served as a youth pastor when the speech in question occurred and became an “assistant pastor” later in his tenure at the church.
That’s not a great answer to the allegation, however. Castro’s demonstration clearly didn’t repel Warnock at the time or later — in fact, he became even more involved at Abyssinian after Castro’s appearance. Clearly, Warnock at least felt comfortable with the radical nature of this church, if not outright supportive of it. There’s no record that Warnock criticized the invitation or Castro for his speech at it — and if there were any record of it, Warnock’s campaign would have had that in its response to this story.
Perhaps Warnock has a good story to tell about youthful flirtations with radicalism and Castroism, and how those experiences gave him the wisdom to put those aside. If so, Warnock had better start telling those stories, and fast, because voters around the country made it clear that they aren’t interested in progressive Democrats’ soft Castroism, not even in bluer states than Georgia.
Update: Speaking of youthful indiscretions …
Warnock, the senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, has for years been one of the most vocal defenders of [Jeremiah] Wright’s infamous 2003 “God Damn America” sermon, which compared U.S. leaders to al Qaeda and claimed HIV was invented by the government as a way to kill black people. … Warnock has been one of Wright’s most consistent public supporters. In 2014, he praised Wright’s “God Damn America” sermon in a speech at the Auburn Avenue Research Library. “You ought to go back and see if you can find and read, as I have, the entire sermon. It was a very fine sermon. And Jeremiah Wright was right when he said the attack on him was in a real sense an attack on the black church,” Warnock said. “The message of Jeremiah Wright was that public policy has consequences.” In another speech in 2013, Warnock called Wright’s sermon “a very fine homily.” In his 2013 book, The Divided Mind of the Black Church, Warnock compared Wright’s insights to those of the biblical prophet Jeremiah.
Power Line’s Scott Johnson points us to this Warnock rant against Israel in 2018, captured by Jewish Insider’s Jacob Kornbluh:
In an editorial shared with Jewish Insider on Monday afternoon, titled “I Stand with Israel,” Warnock writes, “Without reservation, you can count on me to stand with the Jewish community and Israel in the U.S. Senate.” Warnock details his position on a number of issues, including his support for the 2016 Memorandum of Understanding, his rejection of conditioning financial aid to Israel and his hope that a two-state solution can be achieved. Warnock’s 2018 sermon was delivered shortly after the opening of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem. “It’s been a tough week,” Warnock noted. “The administration opened up the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem. Standing there [were] the president’s family and a few mealy-mouthed evangelical preachers who are responsible for the mess that we found ourselves in, both there and here — misquoting and misinterpreting the Scripture, talking about peace.” Warnock went on to compare the struggle for Palestinian rights with the Black Lives Matter movement. “Meanwhile, young Palestinian sisters and brothers, who are struggling for their very lives, struggling for water and struggling for their human dignity stood up in a non-violent protest, saying, ‘If we’re going to die, we’re going to die struggling.’ And yes, there may have been some folk who were violent, but we oughta know how that works out,” Warnock said. “We know what it’s like to stand up and have a peaceful demonstration and have the media focus on a few violent uprisings. But you have to look at those Palestinian sisters and brothers, who are struggling for their human dignity and they have a right to self-determination, they have a right to breathe free.” “We need a two-state solution where all of God’s children can live together,” Warnock proclaimed in the 2018 video before proceeding to charge Israel with shooting innocent Palestinians. “We saw the government of Israel shoot down unarmed Palestinian sisters and brothers like birds of prey. And I don’t care who does it, it is wrong. It is wrong to shoot down God’s children like they don’t matter at all. And it’s no more antisemitic for me to say that than it is anti-white for me to say that Black lives matter. Palestinian lives matter.”
Res ipsa loquitur. One other thing seems clear, though; the oppo research strategy has calculated all along for a runoff. Loeffler and the GOP allowed Democrats to rally behind the most radical and damageable candidate in the race. Call it the Roy Moore strategy, if you will.
Update: I have corrected Warnock’s first name to “Raphael.”


hotair--2020-11-11--Is the White House done with the pandemic?

I know they ’ re all busy right now with the kabuki legal effort to soothe the president ’ s bruised ego over the election but there *is* a major crisis unfolding and they … just don ’ t seem very interested in it .
Asking for leadership and empathy is asking too much , I realize , especially after Americans committed the unforgivable sin of preferring someone else as president .
But you would think the White House might want to make a pretense of caring if only to not cede that ground to Biden at a moment when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a second term .
Trump is all about “ optics ” usually .
Who has the better optics right now : The president-elect who held a COVID update yesterday or the incumbent president who ’ s spending most of his time sputtering conspiracy theories about the election on Twitter ?
The fact that testing was so poor in the spring and therefore we don ’ t know how many people were infected during that lethal first wave has led us all into believing that March and April were the peak of infections — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ll never make it back there this fall .
The hospitalization data this week contradicts that .
The number of people who need hospital care doesn ’ t depend on testing , after all ; it ’ s an absolute measure of how wide the spread is .
Which means , at the moment , it ’ s as bad as it ’ s ever been with no reason to think it ’ s not about to get much , much worse : We ’ re in a different position today than we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dying from COVID .
*If* you can get a hospital bed , you stand a better chance of having your life saved , as my colleague Ed Morrissey was recently reminded .
But I ’ m not sure we ’ re in any better position than we were eight months ago when it comes to protecting hospital capacity .
There ’ s no over-the-counter treatment for the disease to help you conquer it at home .
Remdesivir is available , but that ’ s administered via IV — at the hospital .
Dexamethasone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s only for cases where the disease has already turned severe .
The “ flatten the curve ” messaging from the spring is just as urgent today , if not more so .
Who ’ s delivering that message ?
Sporadic CNN interviews with Anthony Fauci ain ’ t gon na hack it .
If you ’ re reading this you ’ re a news junkie , which means you have more information about the pandemic than the average American does .
I wonder to what degree the average person is missing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the virus is right now but heard the big news about Pfizer ’ s forthcoming vaccine on Monday and concluded , “ Vaccine ’ s right around the corner ?
Now we can cut loose !
” Biden can fill the messaging vacuum left by Team Trump to some degree but he can ’ t fill a logistical vacuum : Meantime , the Strategic National Stockpile , the nation ’ s emergency reserve , has only 115 million N95 masks , far short of the 300 million the administration had hoped to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Polowczyk , who retired on Monday as the national supply chain commander , said in a recent interview , though he added that the government is continuing to expand its supplies of protective gear… Dr. Shikha Gupta , the executive director of Get Us PPE , a volunteer effort that matches available supplies to health care providers , said 70 percent of those requesting help from the organization last month reported being completely out of one type of critical gear .
Masks , gloves and disinfecting wipes topped the list… Governors are once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hospital chains for scarce gear .
Nursing homes are grappling with staff shortages , which have left hospitals unable to discharge patients to their care .
In Wisconsin , the situation is so severe that health officials are mulling a plan to train family members of nursing home residents to fill in at facilities that lack enough workers .
Trump ’ s main contribution to the great “ What to do about COVID ?
” debate this week was to wonder darkly if Pfizer and his own FDA conspired to delay the news @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Always thinking of others , that guy .
Actually , I ’ d say his and Scott Atlas ’ s big contribution lately — besides sh*t-talking Fauci — is pushing a de facto “ herd immunity ” strategy in which the elderly are encouraged to self-isolate and everyone else just sort of enjoys the holidays as usual .
That strategy has always been unworkable because the elderly , especially the feeble , do in fact need to interact with other people in day-to-day life to survive .
Which is why infections have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Covid-19 cases in nursing homes saw a more than 40 percent increase from mid-September to Oct. 25 after seven weeks of steady decline , according to the most recent data .
Nursing home operators and experts on long-term care say it ’ s basically impossible to keep the coronavirus from seeping in as cases spike in communities across the country .
The administration has improved testing and staff screenings at nursing homes since last spring , yet workers will inevitably bring the virus in with them .
But Trump has repeatedly downplayed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , such as the nation ’ s top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci , as cases surge across the country… Across the country , nearly 15 percent of nursing home providers say they have less than one week of supply of at least one type of key personal protective equipment , such as gloves or masks .
About 22 percent have a shortage of any staff , such as nurses , aides and clinical workers , according to a POLITICO analysis of the latest Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data from Oct. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been accused for months of following a “ herd immunity ” approach because it refused to order wide-scale lockdowns , has pushed harder lately for self-isolation by the population to try to slow the winter wave .
It ’ s not working yet : Deaths in Sweden remain lower per capita than they are in the U.S. ( especially lately ) , probably because of the better baseline health among the Swedish population .
What “ herd immunity ” would do to a population like ours , where heart disease , diabetes , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ knows .
But we ’ re probably about to find out .
I ’ ll leave you with this reminder from The Atlantic that just because fewer people are dying of COVID now than they were this past spring doesn ’ t mean that ’ s destined to hold true .
Quote : “ Throughout the year , hospitals and health-care workers have issued warnings that if we do see hospitals overwhelmed , fatality rates will soar .
”

I know they’re all busy right now with the kabuki legal effort to soothe the president’s bruised ego over the election but there *is* a major crisis unfolding and they … just don’t seem very interested in it.
Asking for leadership and empathy is asking too much, I realize, especially after Americans committed the unforgivable sin of preferring someone else as president. But you would think the White House might want to make a pretense of caring if only to not cede that ground to Biden at a moment when they’re kinda sorta fighting for a second term.
Trump is all about “optics” usually. Who has the better optics right now: The president-elect who held a COVID update yesterday or the incumbent president who’s spending most of his time sputtering conspiracy theories about the election on Twitter?
The fact that testing was so poor in the spring and therefore we don’t know how many people were infected during that lethal first wave has led us all into believing that March and April were the peak of infections — especially severe infections — and we’ll never make it back there this fall. The hospitalization data this week contradicts that. The number of people who need hospital care doesn’t depend on testing, after all; it’s an absolute measure of how wide the spread is. Which means, at the moment, it’s as bad as it’s ever been with no reason to think it’s not about to get much, much worse:
COVID is about to explode. COVID IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE. Everywhere. Where is the plan to transfer health resources using our strategic lift capability? Where is the plan to move patients to hospitals with capacity? People are going to die by the truckload. Government DO SOMETHING! — Dan Barkhuff VFRL.org (@DBarkhuff) November 10, 2020
Covid hospitalizations are rising quickly. We need to start discussions about how we preserve health system capacity given the velocity of this growth in hospital and ICU admissions, and the fact that it will be harder to backstop hospitals given how distributed the epidemic is. pic.twitter.com/euz1iWFkdq — Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) November 11, 2020
We’re in a different position today than we were in March in terms of people dying from COVID. *If* you can get a hospital bed, you stand a better chance of having your life saved, as my colleague Ed Morrissey was recently reminded. But I’m not sure we’re in any better position than we were eight months ago when it comes to protecting hospital capacity. There’s no over-the-counter treatment for the disease to help you conquer it at home. Remdesivir is available, but that’s administered via IV — at the hospital. Dexamethasone is available by prescription, but that’s only for cases where the disease has already turned severe.
The “flatten the curve” messaging from the spring is just as urgent today, if not more so. Who’s delivering that message? Sporadic CNN interviews with Anthony Fauci ain’t gonna hack it.
We just had some good vaccine news, how should Americans plan in the meantime? We have holidays around the corner, potentially with 200,000+ cases a day by then, and CDC just issued new guidance. Is there any major WH-led effort to tell families how to plan for Thanksgiving? — Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) November 11, 2020
The WH Task Force has warned for months bars and indoor dining contribute to outbreaks and now we have tons of outbreaks. Is there a plan to keep owners from going bankrupt during the winter? Is there any coordinated message for officials trying to balance health and economy? — Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) November 11, 2020
If you’re reading this you’re a news junkie, which means you have more information about the pandemic than the average American does. I wonder to what degree the average person is missing the updates about how dire the spread of the virus is right now but heard the big news about Pfizer’s forthcoming vaccine on Monday and concluded, “Vaccine’s right around the corner? Now we can cut loose!”
Biden can fill the messaging vacuum left by Team Trump to some degree but he can’t fill a logistical vacuum:
Meantime, the Strategic National Stockpile, the nation’s emergency reserve, has only 115 million N95 masks, far short of the 300 million the administration had hoped to amass by winter, Rear Adm. John Polowczyk, who retired on Monday as the national supply chain commander, said in a recent interview, though he added that the government is continuing to expand its supplies of protective gear… Dr. Shikha Gupta, the executive director of Get Us PPE, a volunteer effort that matches available supplies to health care providers, said 70 percent of those requesting help from the organization last month reported being completely out of one type of critical gear. Masks, gloves and disinfecting wipes topped the list… Governors are once again competing with one another and big hospital chains for scarce gear. Nursing homes are grappling with staff shortages, which have left hospitals unable to discharge patients to their care. In Wisconsin, the situation is so severe that health officials are mulling a plan to train family members of nursing home residents to fill in at facilities that lack enough workers.
Trump’s main contribution to the great “What to do about COVID?” debate this week was to wonder darkly if Pfizer and his own FDA conspired to delay the news about the vaccine until after the election. Always thinking of others, that guy.
Actually, I’d say his and Scott Atlas’s big contribution lately — besides sh*t-talking Fauci — is pushing a de facto “herd immunity” strategy in which the elderly are encouraged to self-isolate and everyone else just sort of enjoys the holidays as usual. That strategy has always been unworkable because the elderly, especially the feeble, do in fact need to interact with other people in day-to-day life to survive. Which is why infections have started rising in nursing homes again too:
Covid-19 cases in nursing homes saw a more than 40 percent increase from mid-September to Oct. 25 after seven weeks of steady decline, according to the most recent data. Nursing home operators and experts on long-term care say it’s basically impossible to keep the coronavirus from seeping in as cases spike in communities across the country. The administration has improved testing and staff screenings at nursing homes since last spring, yet workers will inevitably bring the virus in with them. But Trump has repeatedly downplayed the virus while sidelining federal health officials, such as the nation’s top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci, as cases surge across the country… Across the country, nearly 15 percent of nursing home providers say they have less than one week of supply of at least one type of key personal protective equipment, such as gloves or masks. About 22 percent have a shortage of any staff, such as nurses, aides and clinical workers, according to a POLITICO analysis of the latest Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data from Oct. 25.
Even Sweden, which has been accused for months of following a “herd immunity” approach because it refused to order wide-scale lockdowns, has pushed harder lately for self-isolation by the population to try to slow the winter wave. It’s not working yet:
#Sweden update. Outbreak continues to worsen. #Sweden now at a higher per capita level for cases and >35%* of USA level for deaths. Deaths continue to rise rapidly. (*Sweden & USA report differently: this figure is the LOWER limit of reality/comparison difficult) pic.twitter.com/wbSq7msQKy — (((Howard Forman))) (@thehowie) November 11, 2020
Deaths in Sweden remain lower per capita than they are in the U.S. (especially lately), probably because of the better baseline health among the Swedish population. What “herd immunity” would do to a population like ours, where heart disease, diabetes, and obesity are common, God only knows. But we’re probably about to find out. I’ll leave you with this reminder from The Atlantic that just because fewer people are dying of COVID now than they were this past spring doesn’t mean that’s destined to hold true. Quote: “Throughout the year, hospitals and health-care workers have issued warnings that if we do see hospitals overwhelmed, fatality rates will soar.”


hotair--2020-11-11--<span class='red'>Breaking: Georgia SecState orders a full hand recount in presidential race; Update

Breaking: Georgia SecState orders a full hand recount in presidential race; Update: Audit and recanvass too

Team Trump got its wish .
Before certifying the 2020 election results , Georgia ’ s secretary of state Brad Raffensperger has ordered a full hand recount of all ballots in the election .
Get ready for a few days of suspense : The Trump campaign ’ s representative , former House member Doug Collins , co-signed a letter with the state GOP chair yesterday to demand the full recount : Republicans are making more demands of Georgia ’ s chief elections officer as they seek to overturn Democrat Joe Biden ’ s 12,000-vote lead in the state ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who ’ s leading President Donald Trump ’ s recount team in Georgia , and state Republican Party Chairman David Shafer sent a letter to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger on Tuesday requesting that he order a hand recount of Georgia ’ s nearly 5 million ballots before certifying the results .
Washington Post reporter Amy Gardner says the recount will only come in the presidential race .
That may not be enough for the state GOP : It would make more sense to do a recount in all statewide races , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Jon Ossoff .
Keep in mind that Raffensperger is not a fan of the claims of widespread election fraud as the reason for Donald Trump ’ s loss last week .
Raffensperger emphatically denied that any evidence exists of fraud on that scale , and challenged accusers to produce evidence of it : Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told Channel 2 investigative reporter Justin Gray that he is a conservative Republican supporter of not only President Donald Trump , but the two Republican senators who are now calling for him to resign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ staff whose sole job is to look into wrongdoing .
He told Gray that so far , nobody has provided any evidence of any significant voter fraud in Georgia .
“ We haven ’ t found any widespread fraud .
We will investigate every single case that voters bring to us , ” Raffensperger said .
If nothing else , a hand recount might make that point even more emphatically .
It might be why Raffensperger decided to proceed with it , although the small gaps in these races made it all but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the gaps are small in the overall sense , but for recounts they ’ re actually fairly large , bordering on huge .
Assuming that a recanvass doesn ’ t produce significant math/data entry errors ( which can happen ) , Trump currently trails in Georgia by 14,148 votes .
As we have remarked on numerous occasions now , recounts don ’ t change vote totals on that scope , or really anywhere near that scope .
Usually the overall gap changes in statewide races tend to be in the hundreds , not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ never on a five-figure scale .
If Republicans expect that kind of change , though , why aren ’ t they also challenging the Perdue-Ossoff race ?
Perdue leads Ossoff by 83,000-plus votes at the moment , but he ’ s missed the 50 % +1 vote threshold needed to avoid a runoff by only 14,162 votes .
If there ’ s really a chance that Trump got shorted on that scale by ballot counters , it ’ s fairly easy to assume that Perdue also got shorted a similar amount , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That would allow Republicans to get to 51 seats without a runoff on January 5 .
Perhaps they want to do a hand recount in one race first before doing another .
However , there ’ s a deadline for certification looming .
Can Georgia do back-to-back hand recounts in time to meet that deadline ?
And why should they , when they could do both simultaneously , assuming no statutory impediment to doing so ?
In this case , a recount is really just a box-checking exercise .
There ’ s only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in ballot counts , and this gap would be an unprecedented hurdle in recounts .
We ’ ll get some suspense , but don ’ t expect a status change , and it appears the state Republican Party isn ’ t really expecting one either .
Update : Some have been confused whether Raffensperger ordered a recount , an audit , or a recanvass .
The answer is … yes : Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger says the state will begin a full audit of election results in Georgia today .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happened in our state .
The audit will focus on the presidential election and all ballots will be recounted by hand .
“ With the margin being so close , it will require a full , by-hand recount in each county , ” Raffensperger said during a news conference Wednesday morning .
“ This will help build confidence .
It will be an audit , a recount and a recanvas all at once .
It will be a heavy lift but we will work with the counties to get this done in time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dan McLaughlin for flagging this .

Team Trump got its wish. Before certifying the 2020 election results, Georgia’s secretary of state Brad Raffensperger has ordered a full hand recount of all ballots in the election. Get ready for a few days of suspense:
NEWS @GaSecofState says there will be a full recount of every vote in Georgia and it will be done by hand. — Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) November 11, 2020
The Trump campaign’s representative, former House member Doug Collins, co-signed a letter with the state GOP chair yesterday to demand the full recount:
Republicans are making more demands of Georgia’s chief elections officer as they seek to overturn Democrat Joe Biden’s 12,000-vote lead in the state’s presidential race. U.S. Rep. Doug Collins, who’s leading President Donald Trump’s recount team in Georgia, and state Republican Party Chairman David Shafer sent a letter to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger on Tuesday requesting that he order a hand recount of Georgia’s nearly 5 million ballots before certifying the results.
Washington Post reporter Amy Gardner says the recount will only come in the presidential race. That may not be enough for the state GOP:
BREAKING: Georgia Secretary of State about to announce that they will conduct a HAND RECOUNT of the presidential race. — Amy Gardner (@AmyEGardner) November 11, 2020
It would make more sense to do a recount in all statewide races, especially the Senate race between David Perdue and Jon Ossoff.
Keep in mind that Raffensperger is not a fan of the claims of widespread election fraud as the reason for Donald Trump’s loss last week. Raffensperger emphatically denied that any evidence exists of fraud on that scale, and challenged accusers to produce evidence of it:
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told Channel 2 investigative reporter Justin Gray that he is a conservative Republican supporter of not only President Donald Trump, but the two Republican senators who are now calling for him to resign. Raffensperger said he has investigators on staff whose sole job is to look into wrongdoing. He told Gray that so far, nobody has provided any evidence of any significant voter fraud in Georgia. “We haven’t found any widespread fraud. We will investigate every single case that voters bring to us,” Raffensperger said.
If nothing else, a hand recount might make that point even more emphatically. It might be why Raffensperger decided to proceed with it, although the small gaps in these races made it all but inevitable anyway.
Speaking of which, the gaps are small in the overall sense, but for recounts they’re actually fairly large, bordering on huge. Assuming that a recanvass doesn’t produce significant math/data entry errors (which can happen), Trump currently trails in Georgia by 14,148 votes. As we have remarked on numerous occasions now, recounts don’t change vote totals on that scope, or really anywhere near that scope. Usually the overall gap changes in statewide races tend to be in the hundreds, not the thousands, and to my recollection never on a five-figure scale.
If Republicans expect that kind of change, though, why aren’t they also challenging the Perdue-Ossoff race? Perdue leads Ossoff by 83,000-plus votes at the moment, but he’s missed the 50%+1 vote threshold needed to avoid a runoff by only 14,162 votes. If there’s really a chance that Trump got shorted on that scale by ballot counters, it’s fairly easy to assume that Perdue also got shorted a similar amount, as their vote totals are nearly equal. That would allow Republicans to get to 51 seats without a runoff on January 5.
Perhaps they want to do a hand recount in one race first before doing another. However, there’s a deadline for certification looming. Can Georgia do back-to-back hand recounts in time to meet that deadline? And why should they, when they could do both simultaneously, assuming no statutory impediment to doing so?
In this case, a recount is really just a box-checking exercise. There’s only a slim chance of any significant shift in ballot counts, and this gap would be an unprecedented hurdle in recounts. We’ll get some suspense, but don’t expect a status change, and it appears the state Republican Party isn’t really expecting one either.
Update: Some have been confused whether Raffensperger ordered a recount, an audit, or a recanvass. The answer is … yes:
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger says the state will begin a full audit of election results in Georgia today. It’s the first time this has ever happened in our state. The audit will focus on the presidential election and all ballots will be recounted by hand. “With the margin being so close, it will require a full, by-hand recount in each county,” Raffensperger said during a news conference Wednesday morning. “This will help build confidence. It will be an audit, a recount and a recanvas all at once. It will be a heavy lift but we will work with the counties to get this done in time for our state certification.”
Thanks to Dan McLaughlin for flagging this.


hotair--2020-11-11--GOP hits 50: Alaska Senate race called for Sullivan; Update: Cabinet?

What the Senate race in Alaska lacked in mystery , it added in suspense , thanks to the state ’ s ultra-slow vote counting process .
However , our partners at Decision Desk HQ have finally called the final Senate race of 2020 , locking in the 50th seat for Republicans in the next session of Congress — and making the two runoff elections in Georgia even more critical for Democrats .
Or … maybe not : It didn ’ t take this long because it was close .
It took this long because Alaska is only about 80 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after the election .
Sullivan leads Democrat Al Gross by twenty points , 57/37 , but no one could call the state because too many ballots were left to be counted .
Anyway , now we know that we ’ re looking at a Senate where the GOP have at least half of the chamber .
With Joe Biden in the White House , that would leave Kamala Harris on hand to break any ties , including on leadership votes .
Republicans have to win at least one of the two runoff elections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ control of the floor and to ensure that Republicans have any leverage at all in legislation and Cabinet appointments .
Of course , there ’ s another way around that .
Joe Manchin spent most of the last two days insisting that he won ’ t vote for Democrats ’ “ crazy stuff , ” like court-packing and the Green New Deal .
He also wants an “ all of the above ” approach to energy that ’ s not just out of line with extreme progressives but with the core of his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in his interview with Bret Baier and in another with Salena Zito , but also made it clear that he wasn ’ t going to enable Democrats to take control of the agenda , either .
Sullivan ’ s win formalizes the environment for a party switch .
Manchin had no reason to consider it until Republicans had a firm 50 seats , because otherwise McConnell didn ’ t have anything to give — such as a guaranteed committee chair seat — until a flip ensured McConnell the majority .
Manchin only has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ affiliation has an assured value to McConnell worth that kind of horse trade .
If Manchin ’ s in a negotiating mood , Sullivan ’ s win makes this time to play Let ’ s Make a Deal .
Update : Let ’ s throw a monkey wrench into this , just for fun .
Gil Reich came up with a Scenario 4 , springboarding off of my post last night .
What if Manchin is trying to goad Joe Biden into appointing him to the Cabinet ?
But wait , readers will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number in the Senate .
Not really , as Gil points out : He ’ s correct — Republican governor Jim Justice would be forced to appoint a Democrat in Manchin ’ s place .
That would let Manchin off the hook and give Schumer a clearer shot at getting his agenda through a 50/50 Senate … theoretically , anyway .
In practice , though , it would replace one endangered Democrat with another , and one who will be equally loathe to go along with Schumer ’ s agenda for obvious reasons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Manchin until after the Georgia runoffs , since Biden can ’ t start making formal appointments until January 20 , two weeks later .
And if the GOP wins those races , then there ’ s no upside for Manchin or Biden on pulling him out of the Senate .
Republicans would easily win the seat in a 2022 special election and again in 2024 , making it a total loss .
If Manchin wants to retire , he could go that route .
But then why would he be selling himself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ All that does is make Biden ’ s job even more difficult .
If that ’ s Manchin ’ s strategy , it doesn ’ t make a lot of sense .
He ’ d have a much longer career as a Senate Republican .

What the Senate race in Alaska lacked in mystery, it added in suspense, thanks to the state’s ultra-slow vote counting process. However, our partners at Decision Desk HQ have finally called the final Senate race of 2020, locking in the 50th seat for Republicans in the next session of Congress — and making the two runoff elections in Georgia even more critical for Democrats.
Or … maybe not:
Decision Desk HQ Projects @DanSullivan_AK (R) Has Won Election To The Senate From The State Of AK Race Called At 11-11 8:22 AM EST All Results: https://t.co/8VxbhWIELL — Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 11, 2020
It didn’t take this long because it was close. It took this long because Alaska is only about 80% through its ballots, even eight days after the election. Sullivan leads Democrat Al Gross by twenty points, 57/37, but no one could call the state because too many ballots were left to be counted.
Anyway, now we know that we’re looking at a Senate where the GOP have at least half of the chamber. With Joe Biden in the White House, that would leave Kamala Harris on hand to break any ties, including on leadership votes. Republicans have to win at least one of the two runoff elections in Georgia on January 5 to keep control of the floor and to ensure that Republicans have any leverage at all in legislation and Cabinet appointments.
Of course, there’s another way around that. Joe Manchin spent most of the last two days insisting that he won’t vote for Democrats’ “crazy stuff,” like court-packing and the Green New Deal. He also wants an “all of the above” approach to energy that’s not just out of line with extreme progressives but with the core of his party. He demurred on party switching in his interview with Bret Baier and in another with Salena Zito, but also made it clear that he wasn’t going to enable Democrats to take control of the agenda, either.
Sullivan’s win formalizes the environment for a party switch. Manchin had no reason to consider it until Republicans had a firm 50 seats, because otherwise McConnell didn’t have anything to give — such as a guaranteed committee chair seat — until a flip ensured McConnell the majority. Manchin only has a few weeks left in which his affiliation has an assured value to McConnell worth that kind of horse trade. If Manchin’s in a negotiating mood, Sullivan’s win makes this time to play Let’s Make a Deal.
Update: Let’s throw a monkey wrench into this, just for fun. Gil Reich came up with a Scenario 4, springboarding off of my post last night. What if Manchin is trying to goad Joe Biden into appointing him to the Cabinet? But wait, readers will object, that would reduce Democrats’ number in the Senate. Not really, as Gil points out:
https://t.co/iKVHWMwjf1 " a list of three legally qualified persons submitted by the party executive committee of the same political party with which the person holding the office immediately preceding the vacancy was affiliated at the time the vacancy occurred." — Gil Reich (@GilR) November 11, 2020
He’s correct — Republican governor Jim Justice would be forced to appoint a Democrat in Manchin’s place. That would let Manchin off the hook and give Schumer a clearer shot at getting his agenda through a 50/50 Senate … theoretically, anyway.
In practice, though, it would replace one endangered Democrat with another, and one who will be equally loathe to go along with Schumer’s agenda for obvious reasons. It wouldn’t pay off for Manchin until after the Georgia runoffs, since Biden can’t start making formal appointments until January 20, two weeks later. And if the GOP wins those races, then there’s no upside for Manchin or Biden on pulling him out of the Senate. Republicans would easily win the seat in a 2022 special election and again in 2024, making it a total loss.
If Manchin wants to retire, he could go that route. But then why would he be selling himself as the brake against the progressives? All that does is make Biden’s job even more difficult. If that’s Manchin’s strategy, it doesn’t make a lot of sense. He’d have a much longer career as a Senate Republican.


hotair--2020-11-11--The collapse of any hope for democracy in Hong Kong continues

If you ever find yourself worrying over whether American democracy has been “ damaged ” by this or that politician , just take a look at what ’ s going on in China and Hong Kong .
That should make you feel better .
Yesterday , Beijing overruled the results of the last round of elections in Hong Kong and ejected four legislators because of statements they had made in favor of democratic reforms .
This led the remaining fifteen members of the legislature who are also pro-democracy advocates to draw up their own resignation papers as they prepared to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , arrests of democracy advocates out in the streets of the city continued unabated .
( Associated Press ) Hong Kong ’ s pro-democracy lawmakers announced Wednesday they would resign en masse after four of them were ousted from the semiautonomous Chinese territory ’ s Legislature in a move one legislator said could sound the “ death knell ” for democracy there .
The resignation of the 15 remaining pro-democracy lawmakers will ratchet up tensions over the future of Hong Kong , a former British colony that has long been a regional financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but over which China ’ s government has increasingly tightened its control .
A new national security law imposed by Beijing this year has alarmed the international community .
The mass departure will also leave Hong Kong ’ s Legislature with only pro-Beijing lawmakers , who already made up a majority but can now pass bills favored by Beijing without much opposition .
The four ejected lawmakers were charged under a new order from Beijing that came out earlier this week .
Four new rules have been established , specifically for legislators , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ applied to anyone .
It is now illegal to : – Support Hong Kong ’ s independence – Refuse to acknowledge China ’ s sovereignty over the city – Threaten national security – Ask external forces to interfere in the city ’ s affairs You ’ ll notice that none of these new illegal activities actually involve someone doing something .
They are all just examples of people saying things .
These are thought crimes , pure and simple .
If you ’ re an elected official who is determined to have had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ summarily removed from office with no opportunity to appeal .
If you ’ re a protester out in the streets you can be taken to prison or , even worse , be shipped off to the mainland , likely never to be seen again .
Predictably , Hong Kong ’ s chief executive , Carrie Lam , once again acted as nothing more than a mouthpiece for Beijing , speaking out in support of the removal of the legislators .
“ We can not allow members of the Legislative Council who have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be unable to fulfill the requirements and prerequisites for serving on the Legislative Council to continue to operate in the Legislative Council , ” Lam said .
As with all of the recent developments in Hong Kong , there really are no obvious solutions available for the pro-democracy forces in the city .
Their calls for fairness fall on deaf ears inside the Chinese Communist Party .
They have no military power to speak of while China has a literal army camped on their doorstep if anyone gets too far out of line @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do anything China doesn ’ t approve of as we ’ re seeing yet again this week .
Outside help is pretty much out of the question , as nobody – including the United States – is about to get into a shooting war with the Chinese to save Hong Kong .
External sanctions on pro-China leaders in the city have already been put in place but they seem to have no effect .
This is a serious tragedy that ’ s unfolding right before our eyes .
Hong Kong was long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the world .
Now its people are fleeing to the United Kingdom and Australia in significant numbers and trade is declining .
Of course , that ’ s what always eventually happens when communism takes hold in a thriving society .
Hong Kong is probably doomed at this point .

If you ever find yourself worrying over whether American democracy has been “damaged” by this or that politician, just take a look at what’s going on in China and Hong Kong. That should make you feel better. Yesterday, Beijing overruled the results of the last round of elections in Hong Kong and ejected four legislators because of statements they had made in favor of democratic reforms. This led the remaining fifteen members of the legislature who are also pro-democracy advocates to draw up their own resignation papers as they prepared to quit the government in protest. Meanwhile, arrests of democracy advocates out in the streets of the city continued unabated. (Associated Press)
Hong Kong’s pro-democracy lawmakers announced Wednesday they would resign en masse after four of them were ousted from the semiautonomous Chinese territory’s Legislature in a move one legislator said could sound the “death knell” for democracy there. The resignation of the 15 remaining pro-democracy lawmakers will ratchet up tensions over the future of Hong Kong, a former British colony that has long been a regional financial hub and bastion of Western-style civil liberties but over which China’s government has increasingly tightened its control. A new national security law imposed by Beijing this year has alarmed the international community. The mass departure will also leave Hong Kong’s Legislature with only pro-Beijing lawmakers, who already made up a majority but can now pass bills favored by Beijing without much opposition.
The four ejected lawmakers were charged under a new order from Beijing that came out earlier this week. Four new rules have been established, specifically for legislators, but they can just as easily be applied to anyone. It is now illegal to:
– Support Hong Kong’s independence
– Refuse to acknowledge China’s sovereignty over the city
– Threaten national security
– Ask external forces to interfere in the city’s affairs
You’ll notice that none of these new illegal activities actually involve someone doing something. They are all just examples of people saying things. These are thought crimes, pure and simple. If you’re an elected official who is determined to have had such unauthorized thoughts, you can be summarily removed from office with no opportunity to appeal. If you’re a protester out in the streets you can be taken to prison or, even worse, be shipped off to the mainland, likely never to be seen again.
Predictably, Hong Kong’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, once again acted as nothing more than a mouthpiece for Beijing, speaking out in support of the removal of the legislators.
“We cannot allow members of the Legislative Council who have been judged in accordance with the law to be unable to fulfill the requirements and prerequisites for serving on the Legislative Council to continue to operate in the Legislative Council,” Lam said.
As with all of the recent developments in Hong Kong, there really are no obvious solutions available for the pro-democracy forces in the city. Their calls for fairness fall on deaf ears inside the Chinese Communist Party. They have no military power to speak of while China has a literal army camped on their doorstep if anyone gets too far out of line. And their own government is powerless to do anything China doesn’t approve of as we’re seeing yet again this week. Outside help is pretty much out of the question, as nobody – including the United States – is about to get into a shooting war with the Chinese to save Hong Kong. External sanctions on pro-China leaders in the city have already been put in place but they seem to have no effect.
This is a serious tragedy that’s unfolding right before our eyes. Hong Kong was long established as one of the economic powerhouses of the world. Now its people are fleeing to the United Kingdom and Australia in significant numbers and trade is declining. Of course, that’s what always eventually happens when communism takes hold in a thriving society. Hong Kong is probably doomed at this point.


hotair--2020-11-11--Biden task force doctor: Give vaccine to other countries before some Americans

With the recent news that Pfizer and other companies are closing in on having an approved vaccine for COVID there was plenty of optimism going around .
If everything proceeds optimally , the long-awaited path to immunity could be generally available to most Americans who desire a shot by early next summer .
But the keyword in that sentence is “ most.
” As it turns out , if Joe Biden is the next president and he really wants to let his medical experts guide official United States policy , not every American will be able to receive a vaccination @ @ @ @ @ @ @ member of Biden ’ s pandemic task force is Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel ( or Zeke ) , a holdover from the Obama administration .
He was also one of the authors of a paper , released in September of this year , calling for the United States to begin giving or selling the vaccine to other nations before we ’ ve taken care of all of our own citizens .
The globally-minded doctor seems to be quite emphatic about the need to make sure that we ’ re not engaging in any form @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the distribution of the vaccine .
Will Joe Biden take such advice to heart ?
( Daily Wire ) Dr. Zeke Emanuel , one of several members of a coronavirus task force assembled by Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden , has advocated for a plan that would give a coronavirus vaccine developed in the United States to other nations before all Americans have a chance to be vaccinated .
“ Emanuel , who served as a key architect of the Affordable Care Act under the Obama administration , co-authored a paper in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ follow the ‘ Fair Priority Model , ’ which calls for a ‘ fair international distribution of vaccine , ’ rather than what he and his co-authors characterized as ‘ vaccine nationalism , ’ ” Fox News reported .
“ The model allows the country that produces the vaccine to hold onto enough of a supply to keep the transmission rate below 1 % , but says that beyond that , the vaccine should be distributed internationally .
That means giving away or selling doses of the vaccine before it ’ s available @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Emanuel explained to Scientific American.
” I ’ ve heard liberals going on at length about white nationalism , but “ vaccine nationalism ” is a new one .
Assuming this task force can determine precisely how many people will need to be vaccinated to keep the transmission rate below one percent ( and perhaps more importantly , which people ) , then I assume that everyone else would just be told that they ’ ll have to tough it out while doses of the vaccine are shipped off to other countries .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , “ America last ” attitude that we saw all through Barack Obama ’ s presidency .
America should stop being so haughty and high on itself .
We should be subservient to the United Nations , the World Health Organization and other international entities .
We should handle our legal issues in line with the principles of some world court rather than trusting our own judicial system .
Other countries are currently working on vaccines of their own .
Do you really believe they ’ re going to be shipping the finished @ @ @ @ @ @ @ care of their own people , assuming they cross the finish line ahead of us ?
The government of the United States has a responsibility to see to the welfare of its own people before anything else .
We remain one of the most generous nations in the history of the planet and we ’ ll obviously be helping people in less affluent nations to the best of our ability , but let ’ s keep our priorities in order .
It ’ s all well and good to talk about the need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there are real human lives underlying all of the numbers that are published in terms of the pandemic .
When a family reports that one of its members tried to get the vaccine but was denied and they later went on to die from COVID , what will Joe Biden say to that family ?
Will he trot out Dr. Emaneul to explain to the grieving family that their relative was a sacrifice needed to demonstrate our status as good global citizens ?
I get the sense that this is just a sneak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Biden/Harris administration .
With a single election , we ’ ll go from making America great again to making America subservient .
It ’ s not going to be pretty .

With the recent news that Pfizer and other companies are closing in on having an approved vaccine for COVID there was plenty of optimism going around. If everything proceeds optimally, the long-awaited path to immunity could be generally available to most Americans who desire a shot by early next summer. But the keyword in that sentence is “most.” As it turns out, if Joe Biden is the next president and he really wants to let his medical experts guide official United States policy, not every American will be able to receive a vaccination when the shots are available.
One member of Biden’s pandemic task force is Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel (or Zeke), a holdover from the Obama administration. He was also one of the authors of a paper, released in September of this year, calling for the United States to begin giving or selling the vaccine to other nations before we’ve taken care of all of our own citizens. The globally-minded doctor seems to be quite emphatic about the need to make sure that we’re not engaging in any form of “nationalism” when it comes to the distribution of the vaccine. Will Joe Biden take such advice to heart? (Daily Wire)
Dr. Zeke Emanuel, one of several members of a coronavirus task force assembled by Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden, has advocated for a plan that would give a coronavirus vaccine developed in the United States to other nations before all Americans have a chance to be vaccinated. “Emanuel, who served as a key architect of the Affordable Care Act under the Obama administration, co-authored a paper in September in which he encouraged officials to follow the ‘Fair Priority Model,’ which calls for a ‘fair international distribution of vaccine,’ rather than what he and his co-authors characterized as ‘vaccine nationalism,’” Fox News reported. “The model allows the country that produces the vaccine to hold onto enough of a supply to keep the transmission rate below 1%, but says that beyond that, the vaccine should be distributed internationally. That means giving away or selling doses of the vaccine before it’s available to every citizen in that country, Emanuel explained to Scientific American.”
I’ve heard liberals going on at length about white nationalism, but “vaccine nationalism” is a new one. Assuming this task force can determine precisely how many people will need to be vaccinated to keep the transmission rate below one percent (and perhaps more importantly, which people), then I assume that everyone else would just be told that they’ll have to tough it out while doses of the vaccine are shipped off to other countries.
This is the same sort of globalist, “America last” attitude that we saw all through Barack Obama’s presidency. America should stop being so haughty and high on itself. We should be subservient to the United Nations, the World Health Organization and other international entities. We should handle our legal issues in line with the principles of some world court rather than trusting our own judicial system.
Other countries are currently working on vaccines of their own. Do you really believe they’re going to be shipping the finished products off to us before they take care of their own people, assuming they cross the finish line ahead of us? The government of the United States has a responsibility to see to the welfare of its own people before anything else. We remain one of the most generous nations in the history of the planet and we’ll obviously be helping people in less affluent nations to the best of our ability, but let’s keep our priorities in order.
It’s all well and good to talk about the need to be good international citizens, but there are real human lives underlying all of the numbers that are published in terms of the pandemic. When a family reports that one of its members tried to get the vaccine but was denied and they later went on to die from COVID, what will Joe Biden say to that family? Will he trot out Dr. Emaneul to explain to the grieving family that their relative was a sacrifice needed to demonstrate our status as good global citizens?
I get the sense that this is just a sneak peek at what we can expect under a Biden/Harris administration. With a single election, we’ll go from making America great again to making America subservient. It’s not going to be pretty.


hotair--2020-11-12--Biden advisor tells Israelis: Top priority will be re-entering the Iran deal

Oh , goody .
How long does it take to stack pallets of cash , anyway ?
Joe Biden did make it clear that he would reset American foreign policy back to the prior administration ’ s posture , and explicitly talked about re-entering the Iran deal during the campaign .
One could even say that Biden is making good on a campaign promise .
Usually those are made to voters and not Iranian mullahs , but six of one , half-dozen of another : A former senior aide to Joe Biden said rejoining the Iran nuclear deal was “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the US president-elect would move to do so shortly after taking office .
“ I believe that in the first months [ of Biden ’ s presidency ] , we ’ ll either see him rejoin the deal fully , or what I would call ‘ JCPOA-minus , ’ meaning lifting sanctions in exchange for suspending some of the Iranian nuclear programs [ developed ] in the past three years , ” Amos Hochstein said Sunday in an interview in Hebrew with Channel 12 news .
Hochstein , who served at the State @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during former president Barack Obama ’ s tenure , said Biden wants “ some changes ” to the pact clinched in 2015 — and abandoned by US President Donald Trump in 2018 — including its expiration date .
That ’ s hardly great news for the Israelis .
The Trump administration ’ s decision to use a maximum-pressure campaign to contain Iran allowed for the diplomatic progress between the Arab nations in the region and Jerusalem that has peaked with the Abraham Accords .
The previous appeasement strategy fractured the Arab alliance against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nuclear-arms race in the region .
Anything that tilts the US back towards the Iranians threatens to stop that progress and reduce Israel ’ s usefulness to Arab nations in a united front against Iranian hegemonic strategies in the region .
Needless to say , it also threatens Israel in another way , since the Palestinians have been allying themselves more with Iran over the last couple of decades .
Any economic respite in Iran from a new JCPOA or even a “ JCPOA-minus ” would allow more resources to flow out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Israel .
Iran would use that economic boost to conduct terror operations elsewhere too , but everyone knows where they ’ d want to focus most .
You can bet the Israelis know that .
Moreover , this is an odd time to float this biscuit , especially in Israel .
Even the United Nations is taking a tougher line on Israel than Biden appears to be .
In a new report , the UN accuses Tehran of cheating on the limits of nuclear production in the JCPOA , to which they claim @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the European Union : Iran is continuing to build up its stockpile of low-enriched uranium and now holds roughly 12 times the amount permitted under the 2015 nuclear agreement , the United Nations Atomic Agency said in a report .
The report ’ s findings underscore the challenge the incoming Biden administration faces in persuading Iran to fully return to the 2015 nuclear deal : Besides the stockpile of low-enriched uranium , which when further refined can be used to fuel a nuclear weapon , Iran is also taking steps to potentially accelerate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continuing its nuclear research .
… In its latest quarterly report , sent to member states and seen by The Wall Street Journal , the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran had now accumulated a low-enriched uranium stockpile of 2,443 kilograms .
That compares with a limit of 203 kg under the nuclear deal .
Of the total , which the agency said is enriched up to 4.5 % purity , around a quarter has been produced in a way that nuclear experts say would be of little use for further enrichment .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ enriched uranium to produce the high-enriched uranium needed for two nuclear weapons , according to analysts at the Institute for Science and International Security .
Weapons-grade material is of around 90 % purity .
They ’ re also cheating on the centrifuge issue : Well , this certainly looks like a regime we can trust in the future !
The truth is that Iran has been cheating all along , but even if they hadn ’ t , the JCPOA was still a bad deal .
It only committed Iran to halting development @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not permanently , and it put all of the incentives for Iran up front in lifting economic sanctions and unfreezing assets .
The pallets of cash were actually just an appetizer — Iran recovered around $ 150 billion in assets up front .
That money went , predictably , into creating proxy armies in the region and funded IRGC operations against American forces , run by the late and mainly unlamented Qassem Soleimani .
So just how quickly can Biden resuscitate the shameful Iran deal ?
Bloomberg analysts Golnar Motevalli and David Wainer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skis : Iran ’ s mid-2021 presidential election , as well as likely continued Republican control of the U.S. Senate , will put the brakes on quick , substantive action , according to U.S. and Iranian diplomats and analysts .
In addition , Biden has signaled that his priorities starting Jan. 20 will be on the economy and getting the coronavirus pandemic under control .
“ I am not optimistic at all that in the short term anything significant will happen between Iran and the Americans , ” Saeed Laylaz , an economist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , said in an interview .
“ It ’ s not impossible , but it will be extremely difficult.
” … On Wednesday , Iranian President Hassan Rouhani — who leaves office next year after staking his political legacy and reputation on the nuclear accord reached during the Obama administration — referred to Biden as “ the new man who ’ s arrived ” and had campaigned on returning to the accord .
“ If they stick to their responsibilities they can choose the new path , ” he said .
But uncertainty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the potential that elections could lead to a much harder-line government , will probably temper Biden ’ s enthusiasm to get something done quickly .
In addition , while presidents generally have some leeway on foreign policy , a Senate under Republican control would mean lawmakers would demand assurances on Biden ’ s Iran policy before they confirm his nominees , said Richard Goldberg , a former National Security Council official under Trump .
And just in case , the soon-to-be-outgoing-at-some-point Trump administration is trying to make the path as difficult as possible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Quoting Israeli and Arab sources , Walla news said US Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela Elliot Abrams is planning to announce a raft of fresh sanctions on Iran every week from now until January 20 .
These sanctions will reportedly target Iran ’ s missile program and its support for terrorist groups , as well as focus on its human rights violations , making it harder for Biden to roll back such punishments .
… “ The goal is as many sanctions as possible by January 20 , ” an unnamed Israeli @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arab official involved in the negotiations told the news site , “ The goal of the Trump administration is to impose sanctions that Biden can not lift.
” Anything imposed by a president can be revoked by a succeeding president — legally , anyway .
Politically , it ’ s a different matter .
Would Biden ignore human-rights violations and state support for terror in waiving sanctions to get back to the JCPOA ?
Don ’ t forget that Barack Obama ignored all of that — and more — to make the JCPOA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican Senate might be the only real obstacle in a Biden administration .

Oh, goody. How long does it take to stack pallets of cash, anyway? Joe Biden did make it clear that he would reset American foreign policy back to the prior administration’s posture, and explicitly talked about re-entering the Iran deal during the campaign. One could even say that Biden is making good on a campaign promise.
Usually those are made to voters and not Iranian mullahs, but six of one, half-dozen of another:
A former senior aide to Joe Biden said rejoining the Iran nuclear deal was “high on his agenda” and that the US president-elect would move to do so shortly after taking office. “I believe that in the first months [of Biden’s presidency], we’ll either see him rejoin the deal fully, or what I would call ‘JCPOA-minus,’ meaning lifting sanctions in exchange for suspending some of the Iranian nuclear programs [developed] in the past three years,” Amos Hochstein said Sunday in an interview in Hebrew with Channel 12 news. Hochstein, who served at the State Department and oversaw energy sanctions on Iran during former president Barack Obama’s tenure, said Biden wants “some changes” to the pact clinched in 2015 — and abandoned by US President Donald Trump in 2018 — including its expiration date.
That’s hardly great news for the Israelis. The Trump administration’s decision to use a maximum-pressure campaign to contain Iran allowed for the diplomatic progress between the Arab nations in the region and Jerusalem that has peaked with the Abraham Accords. The previous appeasement strategy fractured the Arab alliance against Tehran and threatened to touch off a nuclear-arms race in the region. Anything that tilts the US back towards the Iranians threatens to stop that progress and reduce Israel’s usefulness to Arab nations in a united front against Iranian hegemonic strategies in the region.
Needless to say, it also threatens Israel in another way, since the Palestinians have been allying themselves more with Iran over the last couple of decades. Any economic respite in Iran from a new JCPOA or even a “JCPOA-minus” would allow more resources to flow out of Iran to the Palestinians for attacks on Israel. Iran would use that economic boost to conduct terror operations elsewhere too, but everyone knows where they’d want to focus most. You can bet the Israelis know that.
Moreover, this is an odd time to float this biscuit, especially in Israel. Even the United Nations is taking a tougher line on Iran than Biden appears to be. In a new report, the UN accuses Tehran of cheating on the limits of nuclear production in the JCPOA, to which they claim to still be adhering in agreements with the European Union:
Iran is continuing to build up its stockpile of low-enriched uranium and now holds roughly 12 times the amount permitted under the 2015 nuclear agreement, the United Nations Atomic Agency said in a report. The report’s findings underscore the challenge the incoming Biden administration faces in persuading Iran to fully return to the 2015 nuclear deal: Besides the stockpile of low-enriched uranium, which when further refined can be used to fuel a nuclear weapon, Iran is also taking steps to potentially accelerate its production of low-enriched uranium and is continuing its nuclear research. … In its latest quarterly report, sent to member states and seen by The Wall Street Journal, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran had now accumulated a low-enriched uranium stockpile of 2,443 kilograms. That compares with a limit of 203 kg under the nuclear deal. Of the total, which the agency said is enriched up to 4.5% purity, around a quarter has been produced in a way that nuclear experts say would be of little use for further enrichment. Nonetheless, Iran has now accumulated enough enriched uranium to produce the high-enriched uranium needed for two nuclear weapons, according to analysts at the Institute for Science and International Security. Weapons-grade material is of around 90% purity.
They’re also cheating on the centrifuge issue:
The report also detailed various moves by Iran to install more-advanced centrifuges, which can produce enriched uranium much more quickly, at its nuclear facilities. That could allow Iran to step up its enriched-uranium production in coming months. Among the more important changes was Iran’s decision to install a first group of so-called IR-2M centrifuges at its underground enrichment site at the Natanz facility, breaching one of the nuclear deal’s terms.
Well, this certainly looks like a regime we can trust in the future! The truth is that Iran has been cheating all along, but even if they hadn’t, the JCPOA was still a bad deal. It only committed Iran to halting development of nuclear weapons for a decade, not permanently, and it put all of the incentives for Iran up front in lifting economic sanctions and unfreezing assets. The pallets of cash were actually just an appetizer — Iran recovered around $150 billion in assets up front. That money went, predictably, into creating proxy armies in the region and funded IRGC operations against American forces, run by the late and mainly unlamented Qassem Soleimani.
So just how quickly can Biden resuscitate the shameful Iran deal? Bloomberg analysts Golnar Motevalli and David Wainer suggest that Hochstein is out over his skis:
Iran’s mid-2021 presidential election, as well as likely continued Republican control of the U.S. Senate, will put the brakes on quick, substantive action, according to U.S. and Iranian diplomats and analysts. In addition, Biden has signaled that his priorities starting Jan. 20 will be on the economy and getting the coronavirus pandemic under control. “I am not optimistic at all that in the short term anything significant will happen between Iran and the Americans,” Saeed Laylaz, an economist and former adviser to ex-President Mohammad Khatami, said in an interview. “It’s not impossible, but it will be extremely difficult.” … On Wednesday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani — who leaves office next year after staking his political legacy and reputation on the nuclear accord reached during the Obama administration — referred to Biden as “the new man who’s arrived” and had campaigned on returning to the accord. “If they stick to their responsibilities they can choose the new path,” he said. But uncertainty about Rouhani’s successor, and the potential that elections could lead to a much harder-line government, will probably temper Biden’s enthusiasm to get something done quickly. In addition, while presidents generally have some leeway on foreign policy, a Senate under Republican control would mean lawmakers would demand assurances on Biden’s Iran policy before they confirm his nominees, said Richard Goldberg, a former National Security Council official under Trump.
And just in case, the soon-to-be-outgoing-at-some-point Trump administration is trying to make the path as difficult as possible, the Times of Israel notes:
Quoting Israeli and Arab sources, Walla news said US Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela Elliot Abrams is planning to announce a raft of fresh sanctions on Iran every week from now until January 20. These sanctions will reportedly target Iran’s missile program and its support for terrorist groups, as well as focus on its human rights violations, making it harder for Biden to roll back such punishments. … “The goal is as many sanctions as possible by January 20,” an unnamed Israeli official was quoted as saying. An Arab official involved in the negotiations told the news site, “The goal of the Trump administration is to impose sanctions that Biden cannot lift.”
Anything imposed by a president can be revoked by a succeeding president — legally, anyway. Politically, it’s a different matter. Would Biden ignore human-rights violations and state support for terror in waiving sanctions to get back to the JCPOA? Don’t forget that Barack Obama ignored all of that — and more — to make the JCPOA deal in the first place. A Republican Senate might be the only real obstacle in a Biden administration.
Update: I erroneously wrote that the UN was taking a tougher line on Israel than Biden, but of course I meant Iran. I’ve fixed it above, and thanks to my good pal Ed Driscoll for noticing it.