hotair--2020-10-30--Poll of 51,000 likely voters: Biden 51, Trump 43

Via Patrick Ruffini .
To put the sample size here into context , note that most national polls typically survey between 800 and 1,500 likely voters .
The Cooperative Election Study released today by Harvard is upwards of 50 times that number .
The CES is conducted every two years before and after the national election , which raises the question of how it did forecasting Trump ’ s 2016 upset .
All told , pretty well .
It had Clinton ahead by four ; she went on to win the popular vote by two .
More importantly , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the final days of the race and , with one exception , recognized that swing states were so tight that Clinton couldn ’ t properly be said to be favored there .
Nationally , 43 percent of survey respondents chose Hillary Clinton and 39 percent chose Donald Trump for President .
The remaining 18 percent either were undecided or chose Libertarian Gary Johnson , Green Party candidate Jill Stein , or another candidate .
The survey was also designed to have representative samples in each state .
In Alaska , Florida , Iowa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Pennsylvania , Trump and Clinton are separated by 3 points or less .
Statistically speaking , we can not be confident of either candidate ’ s lead in these states .
In the remaining battleground states , Clinton appears to have the edge .
Trump holds leads in Arizona and Georgia .
Clinton holds leads in Colorado , Michigan , New Hampshire , New Mexico , and Virginia .
The one state they missed on was Michigan .
They had Clinton ahead there and Trump came back to win by less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outcome of the 2016 race was especially hard to predict , though , for two reasons .
One , as noted above , was the uncertainty inherent in having two unpopular low-polling major-party candidates in the mix with several high-profile third-party opponents .
The other was the upheaval generated in the closing days by James Comey ’ s letter announcing the reopening of the Emailgate probe , which Nate Silver believes ended Clinton ’ s chances by convincing late deciders to opt for Trump .
This year the race is much simpler .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s been no earth-shaking last-second surprise despite the best efforts of Team Trump to get Huntergate off the ground .
CES has Biden ahead by eight , and their data matches the surprising trend in other polling this year in which Trump is overperforming among minorities relative to 2016 whereas Biden is overperforming with white voters .
Ruffini has the key numbers : Trump really has made inroads with Hispanics this year , but Biden ’ s made inroads with whites — of both education groups — and whites are a much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Biden is killing it with people who either stayed home four years ago or voted third-party .
He ’ s up 56/27 among that group , a better than two-to-one margin .
Some readers are looking at that and thinking , “ If Trump won despite being behind in the polls in 2016 , he can win despite being behind in the polls now.
” Absolutely , especially if there ’ s a last-second shift in Pennsylvania .
But bear a few things in mind .
First , Silver estimated awhile back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ winning the electoral college again if he loses the popular vote by no more than five points .
If he trails by more than that , the odds get very long .
CES has him trailing by eight .
If we assume they ’ ve underestimated him today to the same degree they did four years ago , lowballing him by two points in his final margin against Hillary , then he ’ s trailing Biden by six .
Still long odds .
His comeback in 2016 was like a team rallying from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ninth to win .
This year , it ’ s more like rallying when you ’ re five runs down .
You might see the first scenario happen a few times over the course of a season .
You might see the second scenario happen a few times over the course of your life .
Moreover , there ’ s no sign of a rally right now the way there was four years ago .
Here ’ s what the final two weeks of national polling looked like back then : You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ move right after the Comey letter appeared .
He went from 4.6 points down on October 29 that year to 1.3 points down by November 3 , which is just about as far from Election Day that year as we are from Election Day this year right now .
He had momentum .
The bases were loaded when he came to bat .
Here ’ s what the last two weeks of national polling look like this year : Two out , nobody on , five runs down .
Various other pieces have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days , stressing that it would take a much bigger polling error to explain a Trump victory this year than it did four years ago .
And not just a bigger error but a less excusable one considering that pollsters know more about Trump ’ s supporters now than they did in 2016 .
They ’ ve adjusted their methods to make sure those voters are accounted for in samples so they shouldn ’ t be missing the extent of his support to the degree they did then .
On top of all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has a massive liability weighing on him in how he ’ s handled the pandemic .
And voters are about to issue a verdict on it at a moment when cases are reaching an all-time high nationally .
It ’ s not a simple “ if he won then , he can win now ” calculation , in other words .
It ’ s the difference between having to hit a routine three-pointer at the buzzer to win in 2016 versus having to hit a shot from beyond halfcourt to win today .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ has to contend with , the surge in early voting .
No one knows which way the ballots already cast are leaning , but traditionally Democrats vote early while Republicans vote on Election Day .
And there ’ s an enormous partisan gap this year across many polls on mail-in voting , with Democrats far , far more likely to vote by mail than Republicans are .
Given all that , the massive number of early votes cast thus far suggests Trump and the GOP will have a daunting hole to climb out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election modeler for The Economist magazine .
Donovan has worked in elections here in the U.S.
They ’ re not random yahoos .
No one ’ s writing Trump off given the relative tightness in Pennsylvania at the moment , but it looks all but certain that the national polling as of Tuesday morning will suggest that a Trump electoral college win is close to impossible .
That wasn ’ t the case in 2016 .
Stay tuned .

Via Patrick Ruffini. To put the sample size here into context, note that most national polls typically survey between 800 and 1,500 likely voters. The Cooperative Election Study released today by Harvard is upwards of 50 times that number.
The CES is conducted every two years before and after the national election, which raises the question of how it did forecasting Trump’s 2016 upset. All told, pretty well. It had Clinton ahead by four; she went on to win the popular vote by two. More importantly, the numbers showed a lot of uncertainty in the final days of the race and, with one exception, recognized that swing states were so tight that Clinton couldn’t properly be said to be favored there.
Nationally, 43 percent of survey respondents chose Hillary Clinton and 39 percent chose Donald Trump for President. The remaining 18 percent either were undecided or chose Libertarian Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, or another candidate. The survey was also designed to have representative samples in each state. In Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Trump and Clinton are separated by 3 points or less. Statistically speaking, we cannot be confident of either candidate’s lead in these states. In the remaining battleground states, Clinton appears to have the edge. Trump holds leads in Arizona and Georgia. Clinton holds leads in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia.
The one state they missed on was Michigan. They had Clinton ahead there and Trump came back to win by less than half a percentage point. The outcome of the 2016 race was especially hard to predict, though, for two reasons. One, as noted above, was the uncertainty inherent in having two unpopular low-polling major-party candidates in the mix with several high-profile third-party opponents. The other was the upheaval generated in the closing days by James Comey’s letter announcing the reopening of the Emailgate probe, which Nate Silver believes ended Clinton’s chances by convincing late deciders to opt for Trump.
This year the race is much simpler. The third-party candidates are marginal and there’s been no earth-shaking last-second surprise despite the best efforts of Team Trump to get Huntergate off the ground. CES has Biden ahead by eight, and their data matches the surprising trend in other polling this year in which Trump is overperforming among minorities relative to 2016 whereas Biden is overperforming with white voters. Ruffini has the key numbers:
Swing to and from Trump from 2016 Post-Election CCES White Non-College: Trump +27 to Trump +19 (-8)
White College: Clinton +3 to Biden +22 (-19) (!!!) Black: Clinton +80 to Biden +77 (+3)
Hispanic: Clinton +35 to Biden +24 (+11) (!!!) — Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) October 30, 2020
Trump really has made inroads with Hispanics this year, but Biden’s made inroads with whites — of both education groups — and whites are a much bigger group. And as Ruffini notes, Biden is killing it with people who either stayed home four years ago or voted third-party. He’s up 56/27 among that group, a better than two-to-one margin.
Some readers are looking at that and thinking, “If Trump won despite being behind in the polls in 2016, he can win despite being behind in the polls now.” Absolutely, especially if there’s a last-second shift in Pennsylvania. But bear a few things in mind. First, Silver estimated awhile back that Trump has a realistic shot of winning the electoral college again if he loses the popular vote by no more than five points. If he trails by more than that, the odds get very long. CES has him trailing by eight. If we assume they’ve underestimated him today to the same degree they did four years ago, lowballing him by two points in his final margin against Hillary, then he’s trailing Biden by six. Still long odds.
His comeback in 2016 was like a team rallying from two runs down in the bottom of the ninth to win. This year, it’s more like rallying when you’re five runs down. You might see the first scenario happen a few times over the course of a season. You might see the second scenario happen a few times over the course of your life.
Moreover, there’s no sign of a rally right now the way there was four years ago. Here’s what the final two weeks of national polling looked like back then:
You can see Trump start to make his move right after the Comey letter appeared. He went from 4.6 points down on October 29 that year to 1.3 points down by November 3, which is just about as far from Election Day that year as we are from Election Day this year right now. He had momentum. The bases were loaded when he came to bat.
Here’s what the last two weeks of national polling look like this year:
Two out, nobody on, five runs down. Various other pieces have made that point over the last few days, stressing that it would take a much bigger polling error to explain a Trump victory this year than it did four years ago. And not just a bigger error but a less excusable one considering that pollsters know more about Trump’s supporters now than they did in 2016. They’ve adjusted their methods to make sure those voters are accounted for in samples so they shouldn’t be missing the extent of his support to the degree they did then. On top of all that, notes Derek Thompson, Trump has a massive liability weighing on him in how he’s handled the pandemic. And voters are about to issue a verdict on it at a moment when cases are reaching an all-time high nationally.
It’s not a simple “if he won then, he can win now” calculation, in other words. It’s the difference between having to hit a routine three-pointer at the buzzer to win in 2016 versus having to hit a shot from beyond halfcourt to win today.
There’s one other factor he has to contend with, the surge in early voting. No one knows which way the ballots already cast are leaning, but traditionally Democrats vote early while Republicans vote on Election Day. And there’s an enormous partisan gap this year across many polls on mail-in voting, with Democrats far, far more likely to vote by mail than Republicans are. Given all that, the massive number of early votes cast thus far suggests Trump and the GOP will have a daunting hole to climb out of on Tuesday:
Here’s the big hurdle for Trump. With 80 million votes — a bit over half our projection for total turnout — already cast, it is very, very unlikely that he could swing enough of the remaining voters to win the election fairly. Polls will have to have been 2-3x as wrong as in ‘16. — G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) October 30, 2020
You can squint and get around this w/ the idea that what's baked was overwhelmingly just cannibalized D votes anyway, but man that math gets tough. https://t.co/qRvIfcQTd8 — Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) October 30, 2020
Morris is the election modeler for The Economist magazine. Donovan has worked in elections here in the U.S. They’re not random yahoos. No one’s writing Trump off given the relative tightness in Pennsylvania at the moment, but it looks all but certain that the national polling as of Tuesday morning will suggest that a Trump electoral college win is close to impossible. That wasn’t the case in 2016. Stay tuned.


hotair--2020-10-30--Evergreen State College enrollment is down sharply again in 2020

For the sake of posterity , I want to point out that Evergreen State College continues to fail three years after the campus takeover that became national news .
Evergreen graduate Benjamin Boyce highlighted the latest enrollment numbers on Twitter : The Olympian put a positive spin on the numbers earlier this week : “ Fall enrollment at Evergreen landed at 2,291 students , down about 6 percent from its goal , but higher than the low end of the projection , which was around 2,050 students.
” Higher than the low end of the projection could be the school @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But putting aside the spin , these numbers are very bad .
In fact , the official numbers from the school ’ s website appear to be a bit lower than what the Olympian reported .
The total headcount ( graduate and undergrad ) at all campuses this fall is 2,281 .
That ’ s down from 2,854 students last fall and 3,327 students in the fall of 2018 .
The headcount in the fall of 2016 , before the takeover which happened in the spring of 2017 , was 4,089 , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cut in half since then .
In fact , enrollment is now lower than every previous year since 1972 , its second year in existence .
They are in many ways back to square one .
( Note this chart has not been updated with the fall 2020 numbers . )
The decline in enrollment must have put a massive dent in the school ’ s operating budget and is almost surely going to translate into the need to reduce the size of the faculty .
There don ’ t seem to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but it must be happening behind the scenes .
That will in turn make it harder to recover as the school will have less capacity and maybe even fewer degrees to offer .
For the record , I think it ’ s fair to say the pandemic could also be playing a role in enrollment but that ’ s clearly not the main problem at Evergreen .
I wonder if at some point it will simply be unable to survive .
Again , no one is saying that but there must be some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it .
The school is a testament to what can happen when far left extremists are allowed to take over an organization .
I sincerely hope other large organizations are watching and learning what not to do .

For the sake of posterity, I want to point out that Evergreen State College continues to fail three years after the campus takeover that became national news. Evergreen graduate Benjamin Boyce highlighted the latest enrollment numbers on Twitter:
For old time followers, and @BretWeinstein & @HeatherEHeying fans—Evergreen undergrad enrollment has now sunk below 2,000, three years post-protests. Total enrollment, including graduate and its satellite campus, is at 2204. State money is the only way they keep afloat. pic.twitter.com/sNFksuRWmT — Benjamin🗣Boyce (@BenjaminABoyce) October 30, 2020
The Olympian put a positive spin on the numbers earlier this week: “Fall enrollment at Evergreen landed at 2,291 students, down about 6 percent from its goal, but higher than the low end of the projection, which was around 2,050 students.”
Higher than the low end of the projection could be the school’s unofficial motto these days. But putting aside the spin, these numbers are very bad. In fact, the official numbers from the school’s website appear to be a bit lower than what the Olympian reported. The total headcount (graduate and undergrad) at all campuses this fall is 2,281. That’s down from 2,854 students last fall and 3,327 students in the fall of 2018.
The headcount in the fall of 2016, before the takeover which happened in the spring of 2017, was 4,089, so Evergreen’s size has nearly been cut in half since then. In fact, enrollment is now lower than every previous year since 1972, its second year in existence. They are in many ways back to square one. (Note this chart has not been updated with the fall 2020 numbers.)
The decline in enrollment must have put a massive dent in the school’s operating budget and is almost surely going to translate into the need to reduce the size of the faculty. There don’t seem to be any announcements or news stories about that but it must be happening behind the scenes. That will in turn make it harder to recover as the school will have less capacity and maybe even fewer degrees to offer. For the record, I think it’s fair to say the pandemic could also be playing a role in enrollment but that’s clearly not the main problem at Evergreen.
I wonder if at some point it will simply be unable to survive. Again, no one is saying that but there must be some lower limit where they have to call it. The school is a testament to what can happen when far left extremists are allowed to take over an organization. I sincerely hope other large organizations are watching and learning what not to do.


hotair--2020-10-30--Don Jr: COVID deaths are down to "almost nothing" in the U.S.

God only knows what he was trying to say here .
Daily deaths are nowhere near being “ almost nothing.
” Watch , then read on .
Over a thousand people died in the U.S. yesterday and deaths are trending upward .
COVID is now the third-leading cause of death for Americans in 2020 behind only heart disease and cancer .
Although Europe is being hit much harder than we are right now in terms of cases per capita , deaths per capita in some countries there aren ’ t wildly higher than they are here .
France is experiencing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yesterday , which is only a bit higher than America ’ s toll when you adjust for population .
Who knows what the daily death toll will look like here a month from now , when our winter outbreak has accelerated to keep pace with theirs .
The number to watch is hospitalizations .
As more people are hospitalized with serious cases of the disease , some percentage of that number will have bad outcomes .
Hospitalizations are rising : All but 11 states saw a rise in people hospitalized this week , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Midwest and Texas .
Although we are not yet close to the hospitalization peaks of almost 60,000 that we observed in the spring and summer , the average number of people hospitalized this week rose to 42,621 , a very substantial increase from the lows of about 30,000 that we saw just a month ago… In Wisconsin , the state that led off this surge , deaths rose 56 percent this week and are up 270 percent since the week ending October 1 .
Deaths have also climbed markedly in the Dakotas to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 11 in the week ending September 3 .
On a per-capita basis , that is worse than any individual week of deaths in Florida at any time in the pandemic… We ’ re seeing a dramatic rise in long-term-care-facility cases in many of the states now experiencing surges , an alarming trend given that long-term-care deaths account for roughly 41 percent of all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S .
This week saw 17,848 new cases associated with long-term care facilities .
Because many states do not separate out resident cases and staff cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican governor of Utah isn ’ t even trying to hide his anxiety at the developing crisis in his state : For those inclined to dismiss deaths as a “ blue-state problem ” rather than an American problem , as the president is wont to do , note that deaths in red states are catching up .
New York , New Jersey , and Massachusetts were laid waste in March and April , but since then the pandemic is a largely red-state phenomenon : Daily cases are not only rising nationally , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right now .
If you think sneering at voters in those states that deaths are down to “ almost nothing ” is a good closing argument to the campaign , that makes one of us .
There are two possibilities about what Don Jr meant , one charitable , one less so .
The charitable one is that he meant that the infection fatality rate is down to “ almost nothing , ” not the daily death toll .
And he ’ s right that that rate has shrunk .
I wrote about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New York Times had a story about it yesterday .
You ’ re less likely to die of COVID now than you were in spring , which is terrific .
What ’ s less terrific is that , as the epidemic here explodes over the winter , we could conceivably have more deaths than we had in the spring even with that lower fatality rate .
If 100 people are infected in March and five percent of them die , five are dead .
If 500 people are infected in November and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 are dead .
And needless to say , the more hospitals are overwhelmed , the more the fatality rate will tick *up .
* People have a better chance of survival now than they did six months ago partly because everyone who ’ s needed a bed has gotten one .
If that changes , the death rate changes too .
And per the hospitalization data above , we ’ re on the way to seeing it change .
The less charitable possibility is that Don Jr knew exactly what he was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ settled on a strategy of naked disinformation about the pandemic to try to shore up support among Trump-leaning voters .
That would fit with Trump Sr running around this week telling people that we ’ ve “ turned a corner ” on the pandemic when literally all available evidence is to the contrary , including what Europe ’ s going through at the moment .
Maybe the campaign ’ s closing argument on COVID is just out-and-out gaslighting about how bad things are getting , at least on networks like Fox where they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on their assertions .
( At least in primetime . )
Meanwhile , cases are up 35 percent in the Pennsylvania since last week , 27 percent in Wisconsin , and 50 percent in Michigan , and local news outlets are no doubt informing voters of those facts .
It ’ s a bold strategy by the campaign , Cotton .
We ’ ll see how it works out for them .

God only knows what he was trying to say here. Daily deaths are nowhere near being “almost nothing.” Watch, then read on.
Jr. claims Coronavirus death numbers are down to “almost nothing” pic.twitter.com/NGMDLYkdsD — Acyn (@Acyn) October 30, 2020
Over a thousand people died in the U.S. yesterday and deaths are trending upward. COVID is now the third-leading cause of death for Americans in 2020 behind only heart disease and cancer. Although Europe is being hit much harder than we are right now in terms of cases per capita, deaths per capita in some countries there aren’t wildly higher than they are here. France is experiencing a hellacious outbreak and had 235 deaths yesterday, which is only a bit higher than America’s toll when you adjust for population. Who knows what the daily death toll will look like here a month from now, when our winter outbreak has accelerated to keep pace with theirs.
The number to watch is hospitalizations. As more people are hospitalized with serious cases of the disease, some percentage of that number will have bad outcomes. Hospitalizations are rising:
All but 11 states saw a rise in people hospitalized this week, the largest increases occurring in the upper Midwest and Texas. Although we are not yet close to the hospitalization peaks of almost 60,000 that we observed in the spring and summer, the average number of people hospitalized this week rose to 42,621, a very substantial increase from the lows of about 30,000 that we saw just a month ago… In Wisconsin, the state that led off this surge, deaths rose 56 percent this week and are up 270 percent since the week ending October 1. Deaths have also climbed markedly in the Dakotas to a combined 101 this week, from 11 in the week ending September 3. On a per-capita basis, that is worse than any individual week of deaths in Florida at any time in the pandemic… We’re seeing a dramatic rise in long-term-care-facility cases in many of the states now experiencing surges, an alarming trend given that long-term-care deaths account for roughly 41 percent of all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This week saw 17,848 new cases associated with long-term care facilities. Because many states do not separate out resident cases and staff cases, this total includes both.
The Republican governor of Utah isn’t even trying to hide his anxiety at the developing crisis in his state:
Our hospitals cannot keep up with Utah’s infection rate. You deserve to understand the dire situation we face. — Gary R. Herbert (@GovHerbert) October 29, 2020
For those inclined to dismiss deaths as a “blue-state problem” rather than an American problem, as the president is wont to do, note that deaths in red states are catching up. New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts were laid waste in March and April, but since then the pandemic is a largely red-state phenomenon:
Welp. The Red States now have 48% more cases of #COVID19 per capita than the Blue States, and they just bypassed the Swing States in *deaths* per capita. Blue State mortality is still 30% higher than in the Red States, but the gap continues to close. pic.twitter.com/JFX6FZ5wtm — Charles #GetCovered-ba (@charles_gaba) October 30, 2020
Daily cases are not only rising nationally, they’re rising in every swing state right now. If you think sneering at voters in those states that deaths are down to “almost nothing” is a good closing argument to the campaign, that makes one of us.
There are two possibilities about what Don Jr meant, one charitable, one less so. The charitable one is that he meant that the infection fatality rate is down to “almost nothing,” not the daily death toll. And he’s right that that rate has shrunk. I wrote about it a few days ago; the New York Times had a story about it yesterday. You’re less likely to die of COVID now than you were in spring, which is terrific. What’s less terrific is that, as the epidemic here explodes over the winter, we could conceivably have more deaths than we had in the spring even with that lower fatality rate. If 100 people are infected in March and five percent of them die, five are dead. If 500 people are infected in November and a mere two percent of them die, 10 are dead. And needless to say, the more hospitals are overwhelmed, the more the fatality rate will tick *up.* People have a better chance of survival now than they did six months ago partly because everyone who’s needed a bed has gotten one. If that changes, the death rate changes too. And per the hospitalization data above, we’re on the way to seeing it change.
The less charitable possibility is that Don Jr knew exactly what he was saying and that Team Trump has now settled on a strategy of naked disinformation about the pandemic to try to shore up support among Trump-leaning voters. That would fit with Trump Sr running around this week telling people that we’ve “turned a corner” on the pandemic when literally all available evidence is to the contrary, including what Europe’s going through at the moment. Maybe the campaign’s closing argument on COVID is just out-and-out gaslighting about how bad things are getting, at least on networks like Fox where they know they won’t be challenged on their assertions. (At least in primetime.) Meanwhile, cases are up 35 percent in the Pennsylvania since last week, 27 percent in Wisconsin, and 50 percent in Michigan, and local news outlets are no doubt informing voters of those facts. It’s a bold strategy by the campaign, Cotton. We’ll see how it works out for them.


hotair--2020-10-30--Tucker Carlson: 'I never thought Hunter Biden was a bad person'

Yesterday a flash drive containing documents related to Hunter Biden , documents which had been shipped to Tucker Carlson , were found by UPS after being missing for about 24 hours .
When the documents first disappeared , Carlson talked about it on his show and said it was very strange that his package had been found empty and UPS seemed unable to say why .
But as I wrote yesterday , the reappearance of the documents didn ’ t answer all of the questions about what happened : It turns out Carlson did talk about the re-discovery of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gave a clear explanation of what happened .
They wouldn ’ t let Carlson look at the empty package , saying it had been thrown away .
They apparently wouldn ’ t say whether the problem in this case was a machine error or something done by a worker at the facility .
In fact , UPS sent a statement to Carlson ’ s show stating , “ There are no more details .
Security is returning it .
Apologies that we were unable to deliver it next day… ” All UPS would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was picked up by a worker , possibly off the floor , and placed on a supervisor ’ s desk where it sat until someone noticed it yesterday .
There are no cameras in the warehouse so there ’ s no way to verify any part of that story .
It doesn ’ t seem to jibe well with the story they apparently told Carlson when the drive disappeared , i.e .
that they had scoured the facility for any sign of it .
Did no one bother to look on the supervisor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ documents themselves , Carlson said they were real but that his staff was still assessing them .
But what he said next was interesting .
Carlson said his show has received a lot of documents about Hunter Biden recently , but that he won ’ t be sharing anything which doesn ’ t seem relevant to Joe Biden ’ s campaign .
“ There are a lot of documents about Hunter Biden ’ s personal life that we haven ’ t brought to you and we ’ re not going to and we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
He continued , “ One is the obvious answer .
He ’ s not running for president .
And so , to the extent those documents pertain to his dad , of course .
“ But Hunter Biden is a fallen man at this point .
And I should also say that I knew Hunter Biden fairly well .
We lived near each other in Washington for quite some time .
I knew his wife , who was an absolutely outstanding person , a good person .
I never thought Hunter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thought he had demons but in the time I knew him he kept them mostly under control .
At some point he lost control of those demons and the world knows that now .
He ’ s now humiliated and alone .
“ It ’ s probably too strong to say we feel sorry for Hunter Biden but the point is pounding on a man , jumping on , piling on when he ’ s already down is something that we don ’ t want to be involved in.
” I found that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of which intersect and are a bit hard to untangle .
First , drawing a line between information which involves Joe Biden and that which merely further humiliates Hunter Biden is not a line that everyone is willing to draw .
I ’ ve seen plenty of people sharing the photo of Hunter with drug paraphernalia on Twitter somewhat gleefully .
And I ’ ve seen a lot of people on the left react to it with disgust .
Yes , I absolutely know many on the left would do the same if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s children existed .
And I don ’ t know if Carlson has shown that photo on his show but in principle I think it ’ s a good idea to try to separate the purely personal failings of Hunter Biden from stuff that might be relevant to Joe Biden .
At the same time , Carlson is a smart guy and has done this kind of thing before where he maybe goes a little too far with something and then backs away in a way that doesn ’ t seem completely honest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look at this and assume different motivations for it .
It ’ s hard to imagine the amount of pressure someone in his position is under at this moment , i.e .
they guy with the biggest right-leaning political talk show in the country who decides what will go on the air this close to an election .
I ’ m sure it ’ s intense and I ’ m sure there are people pushing a take-no-prisoners approach .
That ’ s why his willingness to draw a line on this seems significant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to say and he deserves credit for saying it .

Yesterday a flash drive containing documents related to Hunter Biden, documents which had been shipped to Tucker Carlson, were found by UPS after being missing for about 24 hours. When the documents first disappeared, Carlson talked about it on his show and said it was very strange that his package had been found empty and UPS seemed unable to say why. But as I wrote yesterday, the reappearance of the documents didn’t answer all of the questions about what happened:
UPS didn’t explain how or where the contents were found or give any hint about what happened in the first place. Was the package accidentally ripped open by a machine? By a person? Where did they turn up? Maybe we’ll get more detail on Carlson’s show tonight.
It turns out Carlson did talk about the re-discovery of the documents last night, though UPS never gave a clear explanation of what happened. They wouldn’t let Carlson look at the empty package, saying it had been thrown away. They apparently wouldn’t say whether the problem in this case was a machine error or something done by a worker at the facility. In fact, UPS sent a statement to Carlson’s show stating, “There are no more details. Security is returning it. Apologies that we were unable to deliver it next day…”
All UPS would say is that the missing flash drive was picked up by a worker, possibly off the floor, and placed on a supervisor’s desk where it sat until someone noticed it yesterday. There are no cameras in the warehouse so there’s no way to verify any part of that story. It doesn’t seem to jibe well with the story they apparently told Carlson when the drive disappeared, i.e. that they had scoured the facility for any sign of it. Did no one bother to look on the supervisor’s desk?
As for the documents themselves, Carlson said they were real but that his staff was still assessing them. But what he said next was interesting. Carlson said his show has received a lot of documents about Hunter Biden recently, but that he won’t be sharing anything which doesn’t seem relevant to Joe Biden’s campaign.
“There are a lot of documents about Hunter Biden’s personal life that we haven’t brought to you and we’re not going to and we should tell you why,” Carlson said. He continued, “One is the obvious answer. He’s not running for president. And so, to the extent those documents pertain to his dad, of course.
“But Hunter Biden is a fallen man at this point. And I should also say that I knew Hunter Biden fairly well. We lived near each other in Washington for quite some time. I knew his wife, who was an absolutely outstanding person, a good person. I never thought Hunter Biden was a bad person. I thought he had demons but in the time I knew him he kept them mostly under control. At some point he lost control of those demons and the world knows that now. He’s now humiliated and alone.
“It’s probably too strong to say we feel sorry for Hunter Biden but the point is pounding on a man, jumping on, piling on when he’s already down is something that we don’t want to be involved in.”
I found that interesting for a number of reasons all of which intersect and are a bit hard to untangle. First, drawing a line between information which involves Joe Biden and that which merely further humiliates Hunter Biden is not a line that everyone is willing to draw. I’ve seen plenty of people sharing the photo of Hunter with drug paraphernalia on Twitter somewhat gleefully. And I’ve seen a lot of people on the left react to it with disgust.
Yes, I absolutely know many on the left would do the same if a photo of one of Trump’s children existed. And I don’t know if Carlson has shown that photo on his show but in principle I think it’s a good idea to try to separate the purely personal failings of Hunter Biden from stuff that might be relevant to Joe Biden.
At the same time, Carlson is a smart guy and has done this kind of thing before where he maybe goes a little too far with something and then backs away in a way that doesn’t seem completely honest. So I think different people will look at this and assume different motivations for it.
It’s hard to imagine the amount of pressure someone in his position is under at this moment, i.e. they guy with the biggest right-leaning political talk show in the country who decides what will go on the air this close to an election. I’m sure it’s intense and I’m sure there are people pushing a take-no-prisoners approach. That’s why his willingness to draw a line on this seems significant. It’s the right thing to say and he deserves credit for saying it.


hotair--2020-10-30--Politico: Florida Dems hit the panic button over Miami-Dade turnout

Gee , maybe Joe Biden should have chosen a warm-weather state to kick off his weekend .
While he plays defense in Minnesota , his party has begun to panic over turnout numbers in Florida .
Democrats need to run up the score in Miami-Dade to have any hope of winning the state ’ s 29 Electoral College votes , and so far the Biden campaign ’ s turnout isn ’ t even keeping up with Hillary Clinton ’ s failed 2016 effort : Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida ’ s biggest county @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showing is endangering Joe Biden ’ s chances in the nation ’ s biggest swing state .
No Democrat can win Florida without a huge turnout and big winning margins here to offset losses elsewhere in the state .
But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016 , when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump .
CNN took notice of the problem this morning , too : Allahpundit ran through the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which indicated that Biden was doing relatively well , despite worries over Latino voters .
Turnout prospects looked good too .
So what ’ s the problem ?
Turnout among specific Democratic target groups has fallen off significantly — and Democrats think they know why : One particular area of concern is the relative share of ballots cast by young voters of color and less-reliable Democratic voters .
Part of the problem , according to interviews with a dozen Democratic elected officials and operatives , is the Biden campaign ‘ s decision to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during the pandemic and its subsequent delay in greenlighting — and funding — a return to door-to-door canvassing .
“ We did not get the kind of funding for different vendors who would do that type of work until late in the campaign , ” said Rep. Frederica Wilson , a party institution who represents Miami ’ s heavily Black congressional district .
I ’ ve said it before , and I ’ ll say it again — elections are won on the ground , not in the air .
In a state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or the other , the ground game is largely irrelevant , except in down-ballot races .
Presidents don ’ t win elections in those states , however .
They win them in states where parties line up roughly evenly , and where organization matters .
Barack Obama proved that positively in 2008 and in 2012 ; Mitt Romney proved it negatively in 2012 , and Hillary Clinton did it again in 2016 .
Polling and analytics only take campaigns so far .
They have to ask voters to participate , and keep following @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The RNC and the Trump campaign has used that model throughout the campaign , tracking and targeting voters who might need extra encouragement to get to the polls and ( hopefully ) calculating their messages in the local context of each community .
Telemarketing calls and advertising are not effective in GOTV , apparently not even in party strongholds like Miami-Dade is for the DNC .
This is why turnout numbers in early voting may be misleading .
For one thing , we don ’ t know for sure how that vote will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely that we ’ re seeing the most enthusiastic voters showing up now for Democrats , either in person or by mail .
The lack of an effective GOTV effort may make this nothing more than the cannibalization of their whole election turnout — whereas the GOP has a big wave coming even beyond that on Election Day itself .
And it has the organization to create it already in place .
Democrats have shifted to in-person contacts this week , Politico reports : Geise acknowledged some of the turnout issues in Miami-Dade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the past week and had 100,000 conversations at people ’ s doors in the county , a third of all the face-to-face interactions they had in the entire state .
He said Democrats will make a huge push this weekend to halt the Republican gains in early voting .
“ We ’ ve got to stop the bleeding , ” Geise said .
It ’ s far too late to launch an effective GOTV effort now , no matter how much money the Biden campaign pours into the effort .
It takes months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ networks that will effectively motivate low-propensity voters to the polls .
It takes weeks just to identify the people who can even make contact with those voters .
One hundred thousand conversations is a good start for a week one year before an election , not for a handful of days prior to it .
Team Biden bet that an air war would win in a pandemic .
So far , it looks like they ’ re going to lose , at least in Florida — and the fact that Biden showed up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s failing even in safer states .

Gee, maybe Joe Biden should have chosen a warm-weather state to kick off his weekend. While he plays defense in Minnesota, his party has begun to panic over turnout numbers in Florida. Democrats need to run up the score in Miami-Dade to have any hope of winning the state’s 29 Electoral College votes, and so far the Biden campaign’s turnout isn’t even keeping up with Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 effort:
Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state. No Democrat can win Florida without a huge turnout and big winning margins here to offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump.
CNN took notice of the problem this morning, too:
Allahpundit ran through the polling in Florida yesterday, most of which indicated that Biden was doing relatively well, despite worries over Latino voters. Turnout prospects looked good too. So what’s the problem? Turnout among specific Democratic target groups has fallen off significantly — and Democrats think they know why:
One particular area of concern is the relative share of ballots cast by young voters of color and less-reliable Democratic voters. Part of the problem, according to interviews with a dozen Democratic elected officials and operatives, is the Biden campaign‘s decision to discourage field staff from knocking on doors during the pandemic and its subsequent delay in greenlighting — and funding — a return to door-to-door canvassing. “We did not get the kind of funding for different vendors who would do that type of work until late in the campaign,” said Rep. Frederica Wilson, a party institution who represents Miami’s heavily Black congressional district.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again — elections are won on the ground, not in the air. In a state with a twenty-point advantage to one party or the other, the ground game is largely irrelevant, except in down-ballot races. Presidents don’t win elections in those states, however. They win them in states where parties line up roughly evenly, and where organization matters. Barack Obama proved that positively in 2008 and in 2012; Mitt Romney proved it negatively in 2012, and Hillary Clinton did it again in 2016.
Polling and analytics only take campaigns so far. They have to ask voters to participate, and keep following up, with effective community-based efforts. The RNC and the Trump campaign has used that model throughout the campaign, tracking and targeting voters who might need extra encouragement to get to the polls and (hopefully) calculating their messages in the local context of each community. Telemarketing calls and advertising are not effective in GOTV, apparently not even in party strongholds like Miami-Dade is for the DNC.
This is why turnout numbers in early voting may be misleading. For one thing, we don’t know for sure how that vote will split. But it’s also likely that we’re seeing the most enthusiastic voters showing up now for Democrats, either in person or by mail. The lack of an effective GOTV effort may make this nothing more than the cannibalization of their whole election turnout — whereas the GOP has a big wave coming even beyond that on Election Day itself. And it has the organization to create it already in place.
Democrats have shifted to in-person contacts this week, Politico reports:
Geise acknowledged some of the turnout issues in Miami-Dade and said his group ramped up in the past week and had 100,000 conversations at people’s doors in the county, a third of all the face-to-face interactions they had in the entire state. He said Democrats will make a huge push this weekend to halt the Republican gains in early voting. “We’ve got to stop the bleeding,” Geise said.
It’s far too late to launch an effective GOTV effort now, no matter how much money the Biden campaign pours into the effort. It takes months to build the kind of contacts and networks that will effectively motivate low-propensity voters to the polls. It takes weeks just to identify the people who can even make contact with those voters. One hundred thousand conversations is a good start for a week one year before an election, not for a handful of days prior to it.
Team Biden bet that an air war would win in a pandemic. So far, it looks like they’re going to lose, at least in Florida — and the fact that Biden showed up in Minnesota today hints that it’s failing even in safer states.


hotair--2020-10-30--Uncharted territory: Texas early-voting turnout surpasses *total* turnout in 2016

No one , including me , will believe Texas is truly in play unless and until it ’ s called for Biden on election night .
It ’ s not just decades of Republican domination informing that , it ’ s the fact that it ’ s one of the few “ battlegrounds ” this year where Trump continues to lead in the polls .
RCP has him up by an average of 2.3 points and FiveThirtyEight ’ s model gives him a two-thirds chance of winning .
We all have firm expectations of what an election in Texas looks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because there ’ s no point in voting .
We all know who wins in the end .
So what do we do with an early piece of information that confounds those expectations in a shocking way ?
Texas makes it harder to vote by mail than most other states .
Absentee ballots are limited to those 65 and older , the military , and true absentees .
To make voting in person a bit less onerous during a pandemic , though , the state added an extra week of early voting this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And Texans have fully — fully — availed themselves .
Harris County is where Houston is located .
They ’ ve been running 24-hour polling places in some areas , allowing night owls to turn out in the wee hours .
Meanwhile , in Austin : One possibility to explain the high turnout is that it ’ s a “ spite ” vote .
People wanted to vote by mail to avoid putting themselves at risk of infection at polling places , the state wouldn ’ t let them , so maybe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it to the Republican government .
That ’ s pure speculation , but it ’ s what appears to have happened earlier this year in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election during COVID ’ s spring wave .
Democrats wanted it postponed , Republicans blocked them , so Dems lined up and handed their candidate a landslide victory .
The problem with extrapolating that theory to Texas is that … we have no idea who ’ s voting .
Voters there don ’ t register by party so there ’ s no way to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the aggregate or blue .
I think the AP has it right , though , when it says that “ For Democrats , anything different is likely positive.
” More specifically , having major urban areas crush their turnout four years ago can only portend good things for Biden : The demographics also suggest that the usual expectations may not apply this year : There ’ s also the fact that Trump has never been tremendously popular in Texas .
Just once in the Texas Tribune ’ s tracking poll over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent in job approval : There ’ s an X factor in Texas too : COVID .
The state ’ s not suffering right now the way the midwest is , but it had the most new cases in the country yesterday and parts — namely , El Paso — are struggling badly enough that they ’ re about to impose a new two-week lockdown to try to protect hospital capacity .
The pandemic is Trump ’ s biggest electoral liability .
If Texans go to the polls Tuesday with coronavirus on their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to revisit expectations .
Election experts have been chattering on social media over the past week about how , if Texas flips , it won ’ t be the suburban areas trending blue that ’ ll finish Trump off .
It ’ ll be the border counties with large Latino populations .
And , per the AP , they ’ re a notable exception to the early-voting outburst that ’ s been happening elsewhere across the state : The spike in early voting is most apparent in suburban counties around Dallas and in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ toward San Antonio .
One area that has not seen voting rise dramatically , however , is the Rio Grande Valley , where Harris will be .
Its population is about 90 % Mexican-American and it is among the state ’ s youngest and fastest-growing areas .
In Hidalgo County , which includes McAllen , early voting has only increased by about 1 % compared to 2016 , despite the extra week to do so — far below the at least 15 % increase in nearly every other large Texas county… Its also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nation by the coronavirus and has seen new cases soar in recent weeks as they have in many parts of the country .
Guess where one of Kamala Harris ’ s stops is in Texas today .
Yep , McAllen , in Hidalgo County .
She ’ s also swinging by Houston to try to run up the score on Trump locally and then on to Fort Worth , which Trump won in 2016 but which turned blue in the midterms for Beto O ’ Rourke .
I assume Texas won ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nominee himself , as it ’ s much more important for him to lock down Pennsylvania than to waste several hours on a longshot .
But Biden must be tempted by the early-voting numbers , as well as the fact that Texas should have a final result on Tuesday night due to the limited number of mail-in ballots .
Nothing would crush Trump ’ s plans , and the plans of his allies , to whine about fraud in the Rust Belt because of the high number of votes by mail like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tuned .

No one, including me, will believe Texas is truly in play unless and until it’s called for Biden on election night. It’s not just decades of Republican domination informing that, it’s the fact that it’s one of the few “battlegrounds” this year where Trump continues to lead in the polls. RCP has him up by an average of 2.3 points and FiveThirtyEight’s model gives him a two-thirds chance of winning.
We all have firm expectations of what an election in Texas looks like. Turnout tends to be low because there’s no point in voting. We all know who wins in the end.
So what do we do with an early piece of information that confounds those expectations in a shocking way?
Breaking: Texas just surpassed its 2016 total votes cast w/ one day of early voting & Election Day left to go. The state is reporting 9,009,850 votes already cast, vs. the all-time record of 8,969,226 in 2016. This is massive. — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 30, 2020
Texas makes it harder to vote by mail than most other states. Absentee ballots are limited to those 65 and older, the military, and true absentees. To make voting in person a bit less onerous during a pandemic, though, the state added an extra week of early voting this year, reducing congestion at the polls. And Texans have fully — fully — availed themselves.
NEW: We just hit our highest voter turnout. Ever. Nearly 1.4 million votes have been cast in Harris County and we’re not even done with Early Vote yet. Let’s run up the score, Texas! — Lina Hidalgo (@LinaHidalgoTX) October 30, 2020
Harris County is where Houston is located. They’ve been running 24-hour polling places in some areas, allowing night owls to turn out in the wee hours. Meanwhile, in Austin:
Travis County Clerk Dana DeBeauvoir says the county has exceeded total turnout from the 2016 presidential race. Polls are open at all 37 early county voting locations through Friday, and 5 of those locations will now stay open until 9 pm. pic.twitter.com/LQ4W0JRKAC — Jack Flagler (@jflagler) October 28, 2020
One possibility to explain the high turnout is that it’s a “spite” vote. People wanted to vote by mail to avoid putting themselves at risk of infection at polling places, the state wouldn’t let them, so maybe Dems decided to turn out and stick it to the Republican government. That’s pure speculation, but it’s what appears to have happened earlier this year in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election during COVID’s spring wave. Democrats wanted it postponed, Republicans blocked them, so Dems lined up and handed their candidate a landslide victory.
The problem with extrapolating that theory to Texas is that … we have no idea who’s voting. Voters there don’t register by party so there’s no way to tell if early turnout is shaded red in the aggregate or blue. I think the AP has it right, though, when it says that “For Democrats, anything different is likely positive.” More specifically, having major urban areas crush their turnout four years ago can only portend good things for Biden:
Per @HarrisVotes, Harris Co., TX just became the latest county to surpass its 2016 total votes cast, w/ all-night voting, Friday and Election Day left to go. Harris margins for… Obama '12: 971 votes
Clinton '16: 161,959 votes
O'Rourke '18: 201,298 votes
Biden '20: ?? — Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 30, 2020
The demographics also suggest that the usual expectations may not apply this year:
More than one million voters under the age of 30 have already cast their ballots in Texas — that’s almost a 165% increase from all of 2016: "Younger voters could turn Texas blue this year. It's a real possibility for the first time" @JanetShamlian reports https://t.co/fZ7BRd8PYk pic.twitter.com/aj62JBAmlB — CBS News (@CBSNews) October 30, 2020
There’s also the fact that Trump has never been tremendously popular in Texas. Just once in the Texas Tribune’s tracking poll over the last three years has he exceeded 50 percent in job approval:
There’s an X factor in Texas too: COVID. The state’s not suffering right now the way the midwest is, but it had the most new cases in the country yesterday and parts — namely, El Paso — are struggling badly enough that they’re about to impose a new two-week lockdown to try to protect hospital capacity. The pandemic is Trump’s biggest electoral liability. If Texans go to the polls Tuesday with coronavirus on their minds, that would also force us to revisit expectations.
Election experts have been chattering on social media over the past week about how, if Texas flips, it won’t be the suburban areas trending blue that’ll finish Trump off. It’ll be the border counties with large Latino populations. And, per the AP, they’re a notable exception to the early-voting outburst that’s been happening elsewhere across the state:
The spike in early voting is most apparent in suburban counties around Dallas and in areas outside Austin, especially those south toward San Antonio. One area that has not seen voting rise dramatically, however, is the Rio Grande Valley, where Harris will be. Its population is about 90% Mexican-American and it is among the state’s youngest and fastest-growing areas. In Hidalgo County, which includes McAllen, early voting has only increased by about 1% compared to 2016, despite the extra week to do so — far below the at least 15% increase in nearly every other large Texas county… Its also been among the hardest hit areas in the nation by the coronavirus and has seen new cases soar in recent weeks as they have in many parts of the country.
Guess where one of Kamala Harris’s stops is in Texas today. Yep, McAllen, in Hidalgo County. She’s also swinging by Houston to try to run up the score on Trump locally and then on to Fort Worth, which Trump won in 2016 but which turned blue in the midterms for Beto O’Rourke. I assume Texas won’t get a visit before Tuesday from the nominee himself, as it’s much more important for him to lock down Pennsylvania than to waste several hours on a longshot. But Biden must be tempted by the early-voting numbers, as well as the fact that Texas should have a final result on Tuesday night due to the limited number of mail-in ballots. Nothing would crush Trump’s plans, and the plans of his allies, to whine about fraud in the Rust Belt because of the high number of votes by mail like flipping Texas on election night. Stay tuned.


hotair--2020-10-30--NY Post: Twitter "running a blackmail operation" with our account

It ’ s been sixteen days and counting since America ’ s longest-continuously-operating newspaper has had access to its Twitter account , even just to tweet links to its own articles .
Twitter locked out the New York Post after it insisted on promoting its story about Hunter Biden ’ s laptop and e-mails , as the platform claimed that it was based on “ hacked ” information and required fact-checking first .
And despite admissions that Twitter mishandled the entire affair , including testimony by CEO Jack Dorsey in a Senate hearing this week that the platform had reversed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still can ’ t access its account .
Why not ?
Twitter is blackmailing the NYP to delete its original tweets before they ’ ll allow them back onto the platform , the editors claim , even though they have repeatedly admitted that they have no evidence that the story is false : For all their talk of “ neutral platforms , ” the Big Shots at Big Tech — Twitter , Facebook and Google — are running a protection racket .
They figure they can dictate what Americans get to see and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ must do to reach the public via those platforms .
It ’ s a clear threat to a healthy democracy — and Congress has noticed .
On Wednesday , the Senate launched a hearing to investigate “ Big Tech ’ s bad behavior.
” Center-stage : Twitter ’ s strong-arm tactics to censor The Post ever since we began reporting on Hunter Biden ’ s emails .
First , it froze our account and banned our stories ; then , amid a public backlash , it agreed to unfreeze us — but only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Our friend Karol Markowicz told Fox & Friends yesterday that the NY Post would not “ bow down ” to Dorsey or his enforcers : Karol makes two solid points , one arguable and the other clearly not .
The arguable point is that this amounts to an “ in-kind contribution to Joe Biden.
” Twitter and Dorsey will rebut that by arguing that Congress pressured them into fighting disinformation after the 2016 election , and that gatekeeping got more strenuous in the years since .
It only seems to cut in one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some basis in fact .
The second point is more telling .
If Twitter wants the tweets deleted , why not just delete the tweets themselves ?
They clearly have the access and the authority to do it , but thus far have not .
Why ?
Karol argues that Twitter wants the NY Post to do it in order to force them to “ bow down ” to their judgment — and that the editors will refuse to do so , since there wasn ’ t a problem with the tweets in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ terms of use , and no one has actually disputed the authenticity of the e-mails on which the story was based .
To delete the tweets would look like an admission of fault .
Thus we have this absurd situation , in which a platform purportedly in place to facilitate communication has locked out a major American media outlet for a story over which they have no specific objections .
For sixteen days .
And counting .
Where are all the reporters who claim every Donald Trump insult is an assault on the @ @ @

It’s been sixteen days and counting since America’s longest-continuously-operating newspaper has had access to its Twitter account, even just to tweet links to its own articles. Twitter locked out the New York Post after it insisted on promoting its story about Hunter Biden’s laptop and e-mails, as the platform claimed that it was based on “hacked” information and required fact-checking first. And despite admissions that Twitter mishandled the entire affair, including testimony by CEO Jack Dorsey in a Senate hearing this week that the platform had reversed its actions, the New York Post still can’t access its account.
Why not? Twitter is blackmailing the NYP to delete its original tweets before they’ll allow them back onto the platform, the editors claim, even though they have repeatedly admitted that they have no evidence that the story is false:
For all their talk of “neutral platforms,” the Big Shots at Big Tech — Twitter, Facebook and Google — are running a protection racket. They figure they can dictate what Americans get to see and read, and what other media companies must do to reach the public via those platforms. It’s a clear threat to a healthy democracy — and Congress has noticed. On Wednesday, the Senate launched a hearing to investigate “Big Tech’s bad behavior.” Center-stage: Twitter’s strong-arm tactics to censor The Post ever since we began reporting on Hunter Biden’s emails. First, it froze our account and banned our stories; then, amid a public backlash, it agreed to unfreeze us — but only if we deleted our original tweets.
Our friend Karol Markowicz told Fox & Friends yesterday that the NY Post would not “bow down” to Dorsey or his enforcers:
Watch the latest video at foxnews.com
Karol makes two solid points, one arguable and the other clearly not. The arguable point is that this amounts to an “in-kind contribution to Joe Biden.” Twitter and Dorsey will rebut that by arguing that Congress pressured them into fighting disinformation after the 2016 election, and that gatekeeping got more strenuous in the years since. It only seems to cut in one direction, but at least it has some basis in fact.
The second point is more telling. If Twitter wants the tweets deleted, why not just delete the tweets themselves? They clearly have the access and the authority to do it, but thus far have not. Why? Karol argues that Twitter wants the NY Post to do it in order to force them to “bow down” to their judgment — and that the editors will refuse to do so, since there wasn’t a problem with the tweets in the first place. They violated no terms of use, and no one has actually disputed the authenticity of the e-mails on which the story was based. To delete the tweets would look like an admission of fault.
Thus we have this absurd situation, in which a platform purportedly in place to facilitate communication has locked out a major American media outlet for a story over which they have no specific objections. For sixteen days. And counting.
Where are all the reporters who claim every Donald Trump insult is an assault on the First Amendment?


hotair--2020-10-30--Singers, musicians sign on with Planned Parenthood ad campaign in swing states

Planned Parenthood has organized a get out the vote ad blitz in six swing states this week .
The full-page ads in newspapers include the names of hundreds of singers and musicians .
The campaign is called We Need Every Voice .
The targeted newspapers include Detroit Free Press , Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel , and Austin American Statesman – that ’ s right , Texas is considered a swing state by Democrats now .
The musical artists who have signed on include “ the Beastie Boys , the Breeders , the Chicks , St. Vincent , Queens of the Stone Age @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bright Eyes , Margo Price , Weezer , and dozens more ” , according to Rolling Stone .
As you might guess , the ad was created in response to Amy Coney Barrett ’ s appointment to the Supreme Court .
The panic on the left is real , whether it is a legit concern or not .
“ United , our voices can change the direction of this country .
Voting shapes our lives and has lasting effects , ” the ad states .
“ After the rushed confirmation of Justice Amy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a pandemic , we now face a Supreme Court that puts our health and freedoms , including our right to safe and legal abortion , at extreme risk .
The damage already inflicted on our country will last for generations .
We can ’ t afford any further assaults on our reproductive freedom — our right to control our bodies .
We need your voice.
” The ad continued : “ This election , more than any other , will determine our health , rights and our future .
Now , we decide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , because your body is your own.
” “ Everything is on the line with this election .
Voters across the country understand that we need leaders who will fight to protect our rights and access to health care in every branch of government — that ’ s why tens of millions of Americans have already cast their ballots by mail or in-person in states with early voting , ” Alexis McGill Johnson , president of the Planned Parenthood Action Fund , said in a statement .
“ As we face a Supreme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ threat to people ’ s healthcare access and reproductive rights , we know there is power in exercising our right to vote .
We are proud to partner with musicians for We Need Every Voice to mobilize more people to use their voices and their votes to help elect leaders that will protect our futures , our health , our rights , and our freedoms.
” Rolling Stone lists others from the music industry and among them is the inclusion of “ the Postal Service ” .
I admit I had to check @ @ @ @ @ @ @ band or the agency that delivers the mail .
They are an indie-pop group .
It ’ s 2020 and you never know – I do know the postal workers union endorsed Biden .
Many of the artists are well-known as political activists .
I will note the irony of the title of this song featured in the advertising for a Planned Parenthood fundraiser concert .
Halsey tweeted out support of the ad campaign and included a website that provides voting locations .
Singer Billie Eilish , a hugely popular 18-year-old star , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote by participating in a CBS broadcast special .
I recently covered a music awards show for MRC/Newsbusters and she was the only artist to accept an award that night and say anything political .
It was only one tame line reminding the audience to go vote , thankfully .
Elections are always billed as the most important of our lives , certainly in recent election cycles .
Elections are about the future .
In the case of Ms. Eilish , it is certainly logical that she feels this way , as she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This is why Joe Biden has such trouble garnering enthusiasm from his supporters .
For those looking for more than placing a vote against Trump , voters looking to vote for someone , not against someone , Biden ’ s messaging is filled with doom and gloom and what he claims to have accomplished in the past .
Voters want to be hopeful and inspired .
Trump is the only candidate offering that .
His message is the best is yet to come .
Voters listen to Biden and wonder why he hasn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ promises since he ’ s a 47 year member of The Swamp .
Sleepy Joe is fresh out of energy and new ideas .
Bringing celebrities out to support abortion isn ’ t anything new .
Planned Parenthood spends millions of dollars to lobby for its future .
President Trump is billed as the most pro-life president yet the abortion provider receives $ 500 million tax dollars annually .
Trump has been successful in some efforts to defund Planned Parenthood and not successful in other efforts .
He continues to pledge to keep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Ms. Eilish has been busy in her pre-election activism .
She participated in a live-streamed pay-per-view event about climate change last Saturday .
Her message is you don ’ t vote , we ’ re all going to die .
There ’ s some inspiration for you , amirite ?
And , Trump is the worst .
Someone should tell young Billie that during the Trump administration , greenhouse gas emissions have declined below the levels sought as environmental goals .
Environmental wreckage in particular was weighing heavy on Eilish ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between-songs commentary had her alternating get-out-the-vote messages with save-the-planet pleas .
After the footage of forest fires and melting icecaps during “ All the Good Girls Go to Hell ” ended with Eilish in front of the words “ No Music on a Dead Planet , ” she urged watching fans to “ please , vote people .
We have 10 days til this election .
It is is so important that you vote , especially if you ’ re young , because we ’ re the ones with futures — unless you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ die .
But I can not stress enough , vote as early as you can .
I voted last week… We ’ ve got ta do something , because the world is dying and people are dying and Trump is the worst.
” Election Day is five days away .

Planned Parenthood has organized a get out the vote ad blitz in six swing states this week. The full-page ads in newspapers include the names of hundreds of singers and musicians. The campaign is called We Need Every Voice.
The targeted newspapers include Detroit Free Press, Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, and Austin American Statesman – that’s right, Texas is considered a swing state by Democrats now. The musical artists who have signed on include “the Beastie Boys, the Breeders, the Chicks, St. Vincent, Queens of the Stone Age, Phoebe Bridgers, Angel Olsen, Bright Eyes, Margo Price, Weezer, and dozens more”, according to Rolling Stone. As you might guess, the ad was created in response to Amy Coney Barrett’s appointment to the Supreme Court. The panic on the left is real, whether it is a legit concern or not.
“United, our voices can change the direction of this country. Voting shapes our lives and has lasting effects,” the ad states. “After the rushed confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett, in the midst of a pandemic, we now face a Supreme Court that puts our health and freedoms, including our right to safe and legal abortion, at extreme risk. The damage already inflicted on our country will last for generations. We can’t afford any further assaults on our reproductive freedom — our right to control our bodies. We need your voice.” The ad continued: “This election, more than any other, will determine our health, rights and our future. Now, we decide. We need every voice. Vote, because your body is your own.” “Everything is on the line with this election. Voters across the country understand that we need leaders who will fight to protect our rights and access to health care in every branch of government — that’s why tens of millions of Americans have already cast their ballots by mail or in-person in states with early voting,” Alexis McGill Johnson, president of the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, said in a statement. “As we face a Supreme Court that now poses an even greater threat to people’s healthcare access and reproductive rights, we know there is power in exercising our right to vote. We are proud to partner with musicians for We Need Every Voice to mobilize more people to use their voices and their votes to help elect leaders that will protect our futures, our health, our rights, and our freedoms.”
Rolling Stone lists others from the music industry and among them is the inclusion of “the Postal Service”. I admit I had to check to see if that’s a band or the agency that delivers the mail. They are an indie-pop group. It’s 2020 and you never know – I do know the postal workers union endorsed Biden.
Many of the artists are well-known as political activists. I will note the irony of the title of this song featured in the advertising for a Planned Parenthood fundraiser concert.
Bright Eyes have released a new song, "Miracle of Life," to benefit Planned Parenthood. It features Phoebe Bridgers, Jon Theodore, and Flea https://t.co/vzVaDCiyYL pic.twitter.com/LFk9IV8z2A — Rolling Stone (@RollingStone) October 23, 2020
Halsey tweeted out support of the ad campaign and included a website that provides voting locations.
Halsey has joined forces with Planned Parenthood Action Fund for their 'We Need Every Voice Campaign' to help get out the vote for Tuesday's Election!
–
Visit https://t.co/6I7clil5ax to find your early polling location, locate a dropbox, get your ballot information, and more! pic.twitter.com/mZf60BCBf1 — Halsey Updates (@HalseyUpdates) October 28, 2020
Singer Billie Eilish, a hugely popular 18-year-old star, advertised her commitment to getting out the vote by participating in a CBS broadcast special. I recently covered a music awards show for MRC/Newsbusters and she was the only artist to accept an award that night and say anything political. It was only one tame line reminding the audience to go vote, thankfully.
We're celebrating our power to vote on Oct. 29 — and you're invited! Find out everything you need to know about our special event, #EveryVoteCounts, right here ⬇ https://t.co/MakTev6mao — Global Citizen (@GlblCtzn) October 27, 2020
Elections are always billed as the most important of our lives, certainly in recent election cycles. Elections are about the future. In the case of Ms. Eilish, it is certainly logical that she feels this way, as she is only 18 years old now. This is why Joe Biden has such trouble garnering enthusiasm from his supporters. For those looking for more than placing a vote against Trump, voters looking to vote for someone, not against someone, Biden’s messaging is filled with doom and gloom and what he claims to have accomplished in the past. Voters want to be hopeful and inspired. Trump is the only candidate offering that. His message is the best is yet to come. Voters listen to Biden and wonder why he hasn’t already done what he now promises since he’s a 47 year member of The Swamp. Sleepy Joe is fresh out of energy and new ideas.
Bringing celebrities out to support abortion isn’t anything new. Planned Parenthood spends millions of dollars to lobby for its future. President Trump is billed as the most pro-life president yet the abortion provider receives $500 million tax dollars annually. Trump has been successful in some efforts to defund Planned Parenthood and not successful in other efforts. He continues to pledge to keep up the fight if he is re-elected.
Ms. Eilish has been busy in her pre-election activism. She participated in a live-streamed pay-per-view event about climate change last Saturday. Her message is you don’t vote, we’re all going to die. There’s some inspiration for you, amirite? And, Trump is the worst. Someone should tell young Billie that during the Trump administration, greenhouse gas emissions have declined below the levels sought as environmental goals.
Environmental wreckage in particular was weighing heavy on Eilish’s mind, as the singer’s between-songs commentary had her alternating get-out-the-vote messages with save-the-planet pleas. After the footage of forest fires and melting icecaps during “All the Good Girls Go to Hell” ended with Eilish in front of the words “No Music on a Dead Planet,” she urged watching fans to “please, vote people. We have 10 days til this election. It is is so important that you vote, especially if you’re young, because we’re the ones with futures — unless you don’t vote and we all die. But I cannot stress enough, vote as early as you can. I voted last week… We’ve gotta do something, because the world is dying and people are dying and Trump is the worst.”
Election Day is five days away.


hotair--2020-10-30--Say ... what's Biden doing in Minnesota today?

Minnesota ?
Four days before an election ?
In perhaps the strongest sign that this state has become a battleground , both presidential candidates will make appearances today — despite the state ’ s record streak as a Democratic stronghold going back to 1976 : President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden will hold competing Minnesota rallies Friday as the race for the White House intensifies in what has become a potential battleground state in Tuesday ’ s election .
Biden ’ s campaign announced Thursday that he would hold a drive-in car rally in St. Paul at 3:45 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scheduled Trump rally at 5 p.m. in the Rochester area .
The Biden event seemed designed to limit crowding and close personal contact out of concern for the pandemic .
The details of Trump ’ s Rochester-area rally shifted Thursday after state officials asked the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee to produce a COVID-19 preparedness plan .
Trump and Mike Pence have been in and out of Minnesota several times over the last few months .
For Biden , this looks like a late addition to his focus : The Friday night @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign visit to the state this year , following previous rallies in Mankato , Bemidji and Duluth .
The Twin Cities stop will be Biden ’ s second visit to the state since winning the Democratic nomination in August .
The former vice president toured a labor union training center outside Duluth and greeted voters in the city ’ s Canal Park district on the first day of early voting in mid-September .
Why has Minnesota suddenly reappeared on Biden ’ s radar after almost two full months of taking the state for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s in Minnesota four days before the election .
Trump and his team insist that the state is in play , despite most polls showing Joe Biden ahead past the margin of error .
Trump wants to expand the 2016 Electoral College map , and thinks he can stay on offense rather than focus his time on defending the states he won four years ago .
Plus , Trump feels free to travel constantly .
But Biden has only made specific and limited personal appearances , and only where necessary — Florida , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the map in Arizona and Georgia .
Why Minnesota ?
Apparently , Trump ’ s not the only one who thinks the state is in play .
The Star Tribune notices it , too : The Trump campaign started pushing resources into Minnesota early in the presidential cycle , building out a campaign infrastructure the likes of which Minnesota Republicans said they have not seen here for years , if ever .
The Biden campaign was slower to invest in Minnesota as he worked to lock up the Democratic nomination , but recent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lost ground .
The Biden campaign isn ’ t doing much “ investment ” except in call centers and advertising .
They have flooded the zone with the latter , but that ’ s been the case since the general election started .
Call centers won ’ t do much good without a ground game to inform it , which the Biden campaign has completely eschewed .
They ’ re playing catch-up now , and that also indicates that they think Biden ’ s position in Minnesota is in danger .
By the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probably doesn ’ t make them feel any more secure : A federal court sided Thursday with a GOP challenge to Minnesota ’ s extended deadline for receiving absentee ballots after Election Day , imperiling a state rule that would count mail-in ballots received up to a week after Tuesday ’ s election .
In a 2-1 decision , a panel of Eighth U.S .
Circuit Court of Appeals judges ordered that all mail-in ballots received after 8 p.m. on Election Day be set aside , setting the stage for a potential legal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ order stopped short of a final determination on the validity of the post-Election Day ballots .
The ruling came in a case brought by Minnesota GOP presidential electors challenging a state rule allowing election officials to count ballots received until Nov. 10 , as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3 .
It is one of several Republican challenges to extended deadlines that were adopted in Wisconsin , Pennsylvania and North Carolina in response to concerns about the pandemic and potential mail delays .
The Eighth Circuit opinion concluded that state and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ There is no pandemic exception to the Constitution , ” the panel wrote .
The state legislature could have passed an extension months ago if it saw a need for it .
This “ state rule ” is a bureaucratic order put in place by the secretary of state in a settlement of a nuisance lawsuit in July , not promulgated or approved by the state legislature .
The state has had weeks of early and mail-in voting ; there is no need to extend this deadline .
Even those with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stations as late as Election Day .
It ’ s absurd to add a week to a deadline that has been in place and well-known for months , pandemic or no .

Minnesota? Four days before an election? In perhaps the strongest sign that this state has become a battleground, both presidential candidates will make appearances today — despite the state’s record streak as a Democratic stronghold going back to 1976:
President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden will hold competing Minnesota rallies Friday as the race for the White House intensifies in what has become a potential battleground state in Tuesday’s election. Biden’s campaign announced Thursday that he would hold a drive-in car rally in St. Paul at 3:45 p.m., just ahead of a previously scheduled Trump rally at 5 p.m. in the Rochester area. The Biden event seemed designed to limit crowding and close personal contact out of concern for the pandemic. The details of Trump’s Rochester-area rally shifted Thursday after state officials asked the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee to produce a COVID-19 preparedness plan.
Trump and Mike Pence have been in and out of Minnesota several times over the last few months. For Biden, this looks like a late addition to his focus:
The Friday night rally will be Trump’s fourth campaign visit to the state this year, following previous rallies in Mankato, Bemidji and Duluth. The Twin Cities stop will be Biden’s second visit to the state since winning the Democratic nomination in August. The former vice president toured a labor union training center outside Duluth and greeted voters in the city’s Canal Park district on the first day of early voting in mid-September.
Why has Minnesota suddenly reappeared on Biden’s radar after almost two full months of taking the state for granted? We know why Trump‘s in Minnesota four days before the election. Trump and his team insist that the state is in play, despite most polls showing Joe Biden ahead past the margin of error. Trump wants to expand the 2016 Electoral College map, and thinks he can stay on offense rather than focus his time on defending the states he won four years ago. Plus, Trump feels free to travel constantly.
But Biden has only made specific and limited personal appearances, and only where necessary — Florida, Pennsylvania, plus an attempt to expand the map in Arizona and Georgia. Why Minnesota? Apparently, Trump’s not the only one who thinks the state is in play.
The Star Tribune notices it, too:
The Trump campaign started pushing resources into Minnesota early in the presidential cycle, building out a campaign infrastructure the likes of which Minnesota Republicans said they have not seen here for years, if ever. The Biden campaign was slower to invest in Minnesota as he worked to lock up the Democratic nomination, but recent months have seen his campaign making up lost ground.
The Biden campaign isn’t doing much “investment” except in call centers and advertising. They have flooded the zone with the latter, but that’s been the case since the general election started. Call centers won’t do much good without a ground game to inform it, which the Biden campaign has completely eschewed. They’re playing catch-up now, and that also indicates that they think Biden’s position in Minnesota is in danger.
By the way, this Eighth Circuit decision yesterday probably doesn’t make them feel any more secure:
A federal court sided Thursday with a GOP challenge to Minnesota’s extended deadline for receiving absentee ballots after Election Day, imperiling a state rule that would count mail-in ballots received up to a week after Tuesday’s election. In a 2-1 decision, a panel of Eighth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals judges ordered that all mail-in ballots received after 8 p.m. on Election Day be set aside, setting the stage for a potential legal battle after the election. But the order stopped short of a final determination on the validity of the post-Election Day ballots. The ruling came in a case brought by Minnesota GOP presidential electors challenging a state rule allowing election officials to count ballots received until Nov. 10, as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3. It is one of several Republican challenges to extended deadlines that were adopted in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina in response to concerns about the pandemic and potential mail delays. The Eighth Circuit opinion concluded that state and federal law superseded the state court-approved extension. “There is no pandemic exception to the Constitution,” the panel wrote.
The state legislature could have passed an extension months ago if it saw a need for it. This “state rule” is a bureaucratic order put in place by the secretary of state in a settlement of a nuisance lawsuit in July, not promulgated or approved by the state legislature. The state has had weeks of early and mail-in voting; there is no need to extend this deadline. Even those with mail-in ballots can walk them into polling stations as late as Election Day. It’s absurd to add a week to a deadline that has been in place and well-known for months, pandemic or no.


hotair--2020-10-30--WaPo: Behold, DHS' new and fully functional election defense system

Good news , and from a surprising source .
If this election turns out to be a close call , and especially if it provides yet another divergence between the popular vote and the Electoral College , we can expect to hear all sorts of hysteria over foreign interference … no matter which side loses .
If Donald Trump wins again , we ’ ll get a four-year reprise of “ Russia Russia Russia , ” whereas if Joe Biden pulls off a narrow victory , we will almost certainly hear a return chorus of “ China China China.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is , but instead take heart in a rare compliment from the Washington Post to the Trump administration .
The Department of Homeland Security has prepared for this moment , unveiling the largest operation the US has put together to defeat hackers and foreign interference in the upcoming election : The Department of Homeland Security ’ s cybersecurity division is mounting the largest operation to secure a U.S. election , aiming to prevent a repeat of Russia ’ s 2016 interference and to ward off new threats posed by Iran and China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency will launch a 24/7 virtual war room , to which election officials across the nation can dial in at any time to share notes about suspicious activity and work together to respond .
The agency will also pass along classified information from intelligence agencies about efforts they detect from adversaries seeking to undermine the election and advise states on how to protect against such attacks .
“ I anticipate possibly thousands of local election officials coming in to share information in real time , to coordinate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and what ’ s not , separate fact from fiction on the ground , ” said Matt Masterson , CISA ’ s senior cybersecurity adviser , who has helped lead election preparations .
“ We ’ ll be able to sort through what ’ s happening and identify : Is this a typical election event or is this something larger ?
” The operation will run for days or weeks until winners are clear in most races — and potentially until the election is formally certified in December .
“ We ’ ll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ] community tells us , ‘ Okay , we ’ re good , you can stand down , ’ ” Masterson said .
This provides the coordination that the Obama administration lacked in 2016 , despite getting reports of significant interference operations underway .
That ’ s good news , and its mission to work well past Election Day is more good news .
The only potential point of criticism might be why it hasn ’ t been launched earlier , since early voting has been underway for several weeks .
The answer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will aim at the counting systems , not the voting process itself , and the counting systems don ’ t start until Election Day — although they probably should have started earlier this time , considering the volume of early voting taking place .
The agency has been working with states to defeat “ a drumbeat of disinformation , ” the Post does note .
CISA was also involved in the dismantling of the Iranian intimidation effort in Florida and in stopping hackers attacking officials in both political parties .
That in itself @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weirdly laissez-faire approach from the Obama White House .
Does the WaPo give credit where it ’ s due ?
Not exactly : CISA ’ s growth is especially notable because it has happened despite an abiding lack of interest in election security from President Trump .
He has held only one Cabinet-level meeting on the topic during his presidency and generally views discussion about Russian interference as threatening the legitimacy of his 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton , even though there ’ s no evidence actual votes were changed .
… “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ play it straight and call it as they see it , ” said Suzanne Spaulding , who led a predecessor agency to CISA called the National Protection and Programs Directorate during the Obama administration .
“ Part of it is flying under the radar , which is unfortunate .
You ’ d like to have a president out there reinforcing the messages CISA ’ s putting out .
But the best they can do is try to get their message out to the key people who need to hear it.
” True , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ something about it .
Even the Post notes that Barack Obama only talked about election security at the last minute , and then reversed course immediately afterward and tried to federalize election systems as his term ran out two months later .
In fact , the Post spends a lot of time talking to two Obama-era officials who like dishing on their successors , but even they have trouble avoiding the vast difference in the last four years : Michael Daniel , who was the White House cybersecurity coordinator during the Obama administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , hailed this progress .
“ My perception is that we ’ re light-years ahead of where we were in 2016 in terms of the relationship between CISA and state and local election officials.
” “ This is one of the more remarkable stories frankly in an administration that has spent a lot of time wrecking or at least damaging large parts of the federal bureaucracy , ” Daniel said .
And yet , it appears Trump will be more effective at protecting elections than the unwrecked , undamaged federal bureaucracy under Obama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in that somewhere .
The size and scope of bureaucracies aren ’ t a measure of success .
The effect and impact of policies , even when given a low public profile , are a good measure of the leadership that implements them .

Good news, and from a surprising source. If this election turns out to be a close call, and especially if it provides yet another divergence between the popular vote and the Electoral College, we can expect to hear all sorts of hysteria over foreign interference … no matter which side loses. If Donald Trump wins again, we’ll get a four-year reprise of “Russia Russia Russia,” whereas if Joe Biden pulls off a narrow victory, we will almost certainly hear a return chorus of “China China China.”
Don’t dwell on how depressing that is, but instead take heart in a rare compliment from the Washington Post to the Trump administration. The Department of Homeland Security has prepared for this moment, unveiling the largest operation the US has put together to defeat hackers and foreign interference in the upcoming election:
The Department of Homeland Security’s cybersecurity division is mounting the largest operation to secure a U.S. election, aiming to prevent a repeat of Russia’s 2016 interference and to ward off new threats posed by Iran and China. On Election Day, DHS’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency will launch a 24/7 virtual war room, to which election officials across the nation can dial in at any time to share notes about suspicious activity and work together to respond. The agency will also pass along classified information from intelligence agencies about efforts they detect from adversaries seeking to undermine the election and advise states on how to protect against such attacks. “I anticipate possibly thousands of local election officials coming in to share information in real time, to coordinate, to track down what’s real and what’s not, separate fact from fiction on the ground,” said Matt Masterson, CISA’s senior cybersecurity adviser, who has helped lead election preparations. “We’ll be able to sort through what’s happening and identify: Is this a typical election event or is this something larger?” The operation will run for days or weeks until winners are clear in most races — and potentially until the election is formally certified in December. “We’ll remain stood up until the [election] community tells us, ‘Okay, we’re good, you can stand down,’ ” Masterson said.
This provides the coordination that the Obama administration lacked in 2016, despite getting reports of significant interference operations underway. That’s good news, and its mission to work well past Election Day is more good news. The only potential point of criticism might be why it hasn’t been launched earlier, since early voting has been underway for several weeks. The answer is almost certainly that interference and hacking will aim at the counting systems, not the voting process itself, and the counting systems don’t start until Election Day — although they probably should have started earlier this time, considering the volume of early voting taking place.
The agency has been working with states to defeat “a drumbeat of disinformation,” the Post does note. CISA was also involved in the dismantling of the Iranian intimidation effort in Florida and in stopping hackers attacking officials in both political parties. That in itself is an improvement over 2016’s weirdly laissez-faire approach from the Obama White House.
Does the WaPo give credit where it’s due? Not exactly:
CISA’s growth is especially notable because it has happened despite an abiding lack of interest in election security from President Trump. He has held only one Cabinet-level meeting on the topic during his presidency and generally views discussion about Russian interference as threatening the legitimacy of his 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton, even though there’s no evidence actual votes were changed. … “The folks at CISA continue to just play it straight and call it as they see it,” said Suzanne Spaulding, who led a predecessor agency to CISA called the National Protection and Programs Directorate during the Obama administration. “Part of it is flying under the radar, which is unfortunate. You’d like to have a president out there reinforcing the messages CISA’s putting out. But the best they can do is try to get their message out to the key people who need to hear it.”
True, but at least this administration is doing something about it. Even the Post notes that Barack Obama only talked about election security at the last minute, and then reversed course immediately afterward and tried to federalize election systems as his term ran out two months later. In fact, the Post spends a lot of time talking to two Obama-era officials who like dishing on their successors, but even they have trouble avoiding the vast difference in the last four years:
Michael Daniel, who was the White House cybersecurity coordinator during the Obama administration and now leads the Cyber Threat Alliance, hailed this progress. “My perception is that we’re light-years ahead of where we were in 2016 in terms of the relationship between CISA and state and local election officials.” “This is one of the more remarkable stories frankly in an administration that has spent a lot of time wrecking or at least damaging large parts of the federal bureaucracy,” Daniel said.
And yet, it appears Trump will be more effective at protecting elections than the unwrecked, undamaged federal bureaucracy under Obama. Maybe there’s a lesson in that somewhere. The size and scope of bureaucracies aren’t a measure of success. The effect and impact of policies, even when given a low public profile, are a good measure of the leadership that implements them.