hotair--2020-10-27--SCOTUS throws a wrench in Democrats' plans in Wisconsin

Even while they were short one justice ( at least until this morning ) , the Supremes managed to muster a 5-3 vote along ideological lines last night in the case of Democratic National Committee v. Wisconsin State Legislature .
This case was strikingly similar to a previous appeal coming out of Pennsylvania where the justices deadlocked in a 4-4 tie .
The Wisconsin state DNC had been pushing to allow mail-in ballots to be counted if they arrived as much as six days after the polls closed on election day .
A lower court had shot down that plan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four conservative justices in refusing to overturn their decision .
The lower court ’ s ruling will now stand and the late ballots will not be accepted .
( NBC News ) Wisconsin can not count mail ballots that arrive well after the polls close , under an order issued Monday by the U.S. Supreme Court , a defeat for Democrats in a battleground state .
Buy a vote of 5-3 , the justices declined to lift a lower court ruling preventing the state from counting mail ballots that arrive as much as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Stephen Breyer , Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan said they would have granted the request .
Voting rights groups , the state and national Democratic parties , and the League of women Voters filed lawsuits seeking to extend the deadline for accepting mail-in ballots .
They said the flood of absentee ballots and problems arising from the pandemic make it harder for voters to receive their mail ballots and return them on time .
Of course , over at Vox , Ian Millhiser sees this as the end of the world… potentially .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ two concurring opinions by Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh , each of which takes aim at one of the most foundational principles of American constitutional law : the rule that the Supreme Court of the United States has the final word on questions of federal law but the highest court in each state has the final word on questions of state law .
This division of power is implicit in our very system of government .
As the Supreme Court has explained , the states and the federal government coexist in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the federal government and the states have an independent power to make their own law , to enforce it , and to decide how their own law shall apply to individual cases .
That ’ s one of the more curious claims about the relationship between the state and federal courts in recent memory .
The Supreme Court is asked to hear cases regarding state law all of the time .
It ’ s certainly true that the Supremes have traditionally allowed state supreme courts to have their way when it comes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ residents of that state and which don ’ t fly in the face of the Constitution .
But any state law that violates the constitutional rights of the state ’ s citizens will be struck down , as has happened on a regular basis .
Some may see something of a contradiction in the way the SCOTUS justices wound up handling this case from Wisconsin and their recent decision in Republican Party of Pennsylvania v. Boockvar .
There may be questions as to the underlying motivations of the individual justices in each case @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the traditional , expected result .
In each case , the Supremes wound up leaving the decision about state election laws in the hands of the state courts .
Why ?
Because as John Roberts himself opined , the court should be hesitant to overthrow a state election law or state court decision so close to an election that ’ s already in progress .
In Pennsylvania , the Democrats prevailed in extending the deadline for accepting mail-in ballots .
In Wisconsin , they failed .
In each case , the court refused @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we might speculate that if Amy Coney Barrett had already been seated when Boockvar landed in their laps it might have gone the other way , but that ’ s a hypothetical situation for scholars to debate in the years to come .
Our highest court can and should defer to the rights of the individual states to make their own rules provided they all do so in a constitutionally sound way .
The Supremes have recently signaled that they ’ re taking the same approach with how each state handles the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from any branch of the government begin behaving in a distinctly unconstitutional fashion , that ’ s when the Supremes must step in .

Even while they were short one justice (at least until this morning), the Supremes managed to muster a 5-3 vote along ideological lines last night in the case of Democratic National Committee v. Wisconsin State Legislature. This case was strikingly similar to a previous appeal coming out of Pennsylvania where the justices deadlocked in a 4-4 tie. The Wisconsin state DNC had been pushing to allow mail-in ballots to be counted if they arrived as much as six days after the polls closed on election day. A lower court had shot down that plan and Chief Justice John Roberts joined the four conservative justices in refusing to overturn their decision. The lower court’s ruling will now stand and the late ballots will not be accepted. (NBC News)
Wisconsin cannot count mail ballots that arrive well after the polls close, under an order issued Monday by the U.S. Supreme Court, a defeat for Democrats in a battleground state. Buy a vote of 5-3, the justices declined to lift a lower court ruling preventing the state from counting mail ballots that arrive as much as six days after election day. Justices Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan said they would have granted the request. Voting rights groups, the state and national Democratic parties, and the League of women Voters filed lawsuits seeking to extend the deadline for accepting mail-in ballots. They said the flood of absentee ballots and problems arising from the pandemic make it harder for voters to receive their mail ballots and return them on time.
Of course, over at Vox, Ian Millhiser sees this as the end of the world… potentially.
What is surprising, however, is two concurring opinions by Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, each of which takes aim at one of the most foundational principles of American constitutional law: the rule that the Supreme Court of the United States has the final word on questions of federal law but the highest court in each state has the final word on questions of state law. This division of power is implicit in our very system of government. As the Supreme Court has explained, the states and the federal government coexist in a system of “dual sovereignty.” Both the federal government and the states have an independent power to make their own law, to enforce it, and to decide how their own law shall apply to individual cases.
That’s one of the more curious claims about the relationship between the state and federal courts in recent memory. The Supreme Court is asked to hear cases regarding state law all of the time. It’s certainly true that the Supremes have traditionally allowed state supreme courts to have their way when it comes to laws that are specific to only the residents of that state and which don’t fly in the face of the Constitution. But any state law that violates the constitutional rights of the state’s citizens will be struck down, as has happened on a regular basis.
Some may see something of a contradiction in the way the SCOTUS justices wound up handling this case from Wisconsin and their recent decision in Republican Party of Pennsylvania v. Boockvar. There may be questions as to the underlying motivations of the individual justices in each case, but the final rulings actually produced the traditional, expected result. In each case, the Supremes wound up leaving the decision about state election laws in the hands of the state courts.
Why? Because as John Roberts himself opined, the court should be hesitant to overthrow a state election law or state court decision so close to an election that’s already in progress. In Pennsylvania, the Democrats prevailed in extending the deadline for accepting mail-in ballots. In Wisconsin, they failed. In each case, the court refused to overrule the state court. Granted, we might speculate that if Amy Coney Barrett had already been seated when Boockvar landed in their laps it might have gone the other way, but that’s a hypothetical situation for scholars to debate in the years to come.
Our highest court can and should defer to the rights of the individual states to make their own rules provided they all do so in a constitutionally sound way. The Supremes have recently signaled that they’re taking the same approach with how each state handles the current pandemic. But when state actors from any branch of the government begin behaving in a distinctly unconstitutional fashion, that’s when the Supremes must step in.


hotair--2020-10-26--Women for Trump: Melania and Kellyanne campaign for Trump in PA Tuesday

A rare campaign appearance by First Lady Melania Trump is scheduled for Tuesday .
She will campaign in Atglen , Pennsylvania , with Kellyanne Conway , former counselor to President Trump .
The campaign event will be moderated by Kellyanne .
This will mark Melania ’ s first solo campaign appearance this year .
Kellyanne , Trump ’ s 2016 campaign manager and the first woman campaign manager to lead a winning presidential campaign , credits Melania ’ s solo visit to Pennsylvania in the last days of the 2016 election as “ pivotal ” to winning the state .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ for an electoral college win as it was in 2016 .
Without Pennsylvania , Trump likely can not win the election .
Pennsylvania was the first state Melania visited after the Republican National Convention in 2016 .
In 2018 she spoke at the Thomas Jefferson University Hospital for the National Convening on Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome , hosted by the Department of Health and Human Services .
The Trump campaign is pleased that the first lady will be making the appearance .
Melania ’ s work to combat the opioid crisis in America , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Best campaign against online bullying can all be highlighted .
“ We are excited to have first lady Melania Trump on the campaign trail in Pennsylvania to connect with voters in the Keystone State and share President Trump ’ s Make America Great Again agenda , ” Mercedes Schlapp , Trump 2020 senior adviser for strategic communications , told Fox News .
“ Mrs .
Trump has fought to empower the hardworking men and women of Pennsylvania , and this event will be a perfect opportunity to discuss the future success in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump , ” Schlapp added .
The first lady has recovered from her bout with COVID-19 , though her case was not as strong of a case as the president ’ s infection .
She wasn ’ t hospitalized and her symptoms were headaches and a cough .
She attended the last presidential debate in Nashville .
Pennsylvania is a must-win state for the Trump campaign .
As of today , Real Clear Politics shows the polling average gives a 5.3 point edge to Biden in Pennsylvania .
The polling averages were taken @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That is notable because Biden said during that debate that he will “ transition ” the oil and gas industry away from fossil fuel exploration and production .
That was a big mistake that Trump forced him into making , to Trump ’ s advantage in energy-producing states like Pennsylvania and Texas where the presidential race is tight .
It will be interesting to watch and see if that shakes out to be a fatal mistake for the Biden campaign or not .
President Trump is doing three campaign events in Pennsylvania today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the last days of the campaign .
During a rally in Altoona , Trump said of Biden ’ s campaign schedule , “ He ’ s waved the white flag on life .
He doesn ’ t leave his basement.
” He ’ s not wrong , though Biden will go to Georgia tomorrow before returning back home .
Trump referred to Biden as the worse presidential candidate ever .
It ’ s hard to believe that there is a candidate worse than Hillary Clinton was in 2016 but Biden just might take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has certainly been incurious and treated Biden with kid gloves throughout the campaign .
Yesterday President Trump and Melania welcomed trick or treaters to the White House .
At the 33 second mark , a young girl and boy dressed up as the president and first lady are asked by Trump to turn around so the cameras can capture them in front of the first couple .
It ’ s a cute moment .
The young visitors and the adults had to file past the president and Melania who waved at them this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assume the White House provided treats for the kiddos , they just weren ’ t given out by the Trumps , as they traditionally would have been given out .
That event was a little bit of almost normal activity coming at the end of a crazy campaign cycle during a pandemic .
More of that is welcomed .

A rare campaign appearance by First Lady Melania Trump is scheduled for Tuesday. She will campaign in Atglen, Pennsylvania, with Kellyanne Conway, former counselor to President Trump. The campaign event will be moderated by Kellyanne. This will mark Melania’s first solo campaign appearance this year.
Kellyanne, Trump’s 2016 campaign manager and the first woman campaign manager to lead a winning presidential campaign, credits Melania’s solo visit to Pennsylvania in the last days of the 2016 election as “pivotal” to winning the state. This year Pennsylvania is just as important for an electoral college win as it was in 2016. Without Pennsylvania, Trump likely cannot win the election.
“Melania Trump’s solo visit to Pennsylvania in the final days of the 2016 campaign was pivotal to winning the state—and winning the election,” Conway, Trump’s campaign manager in 2016, told Fox News. “Now she returns as first lady, to highlight how her platform has helped Pennsylvanians and to make the case for four more years of freedom, opportunity, prosperity and security.”
Pennsylvania was the first state Melania visited after the Republican National Convention in 2016. In 2018 she spoke at the Thomas Jefferson University Hospital for the National Convening on Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome, hosted by the Department of Health and Human Services. The Trump campaign is pleased that the first lady will be making the appearance. Melania’s work to combat the opioid crisis in America, championing school choice, and the Be Best campaign against online bullying can all be highlighted.
“We are excited to have first lady Melania Trump on the campaign trail in Pennsylvania to connect with voters in the Keystone State and share President Trump’s Make America Great Again agenda,” Mercedes Schlapp, Trump 2020 senior adviser for strategic communications, told Fox News. “Mrs. Trump has fought to empower the hardworking men and women of Pennsylvania, and this event will be a perfect opportunity to discuss the future success in the state under four more years of President Trump,” Schlapp added.
The first lady has recovered from her bout with COVID-19, though her case was not as strong of a case as the president’s infection. She wasn’t hospitalized and her symptoms were headaches and a cough. She attended the last presidential debate in Nashville. Pennsylvania is a must-win state for the Trump campaign. As of today, Real Clear Politics shows the polling average gives a 5.3 point edge to Biden in Pennsylvania.
The polling averages were taken by RCP before the last debate. That is notable because Biden said during that debate that he will “transition” the oil and gas industry away from fossil fuel exploration and production. That was a big mistake that Trump forced him into making, to Trump’s advantage in energy-producing states like Pennsylvania and Texas where the presidential race is tight. It will be interesting to watch and see if that shakes out to be a fatal mistake for the Biden campaign or not.
President Trump is doing three campaign events in Pennsylvania today. He is going full-steam ahead in the last days of the campaign. During a rally in Altoona, Trump said of Biden’s campaign schedule, “He’s waved the white flag on life. He doesn’t leave his basement.” He’s not wrong, though Biden will go to Georgia tomorrow before returning back home. Trump referred to Biden as the worse presidential candidate ever. It’s hard to believe that there is a candidate worse than Hillary Clinton was in 2016 but Biden just might take that title. And, the press has certainly been incurious and treated Biden with kid gloves throughout the campaign.
Yesterday President Trump and Melania welcomed trick or treaters to the White House. At the 33 second mark, a young girl and boy dressed up as the president and first lady are asked by Trump to turn around so the cameras can capture them in front of the first couple. It’s a cute moment. The young visitors and the adults had to file past the president and Melania who waved at them this year because of the coronavirus. I assume the White House provided treats for the kiddos, they just weren’t given out by the Trumps, as they traditionally would have been given out.
That event was a little bit of almost normal activity coming at the end of a crazy campaign cycle during a pandemic. More of that is welcomed.


hotair--2020-10-26--Amy Coney Barrett confirmed 52-48 (Update: Swearing in ceremony)

Here ’ s the moment the vote was announced by Sen. Grassley : Here ’ s the report from the NY Times : Inside a Capitol mostly emptied by the resurgent coronavirus pandemic and an election looming in just eight days , Republicans overcame unanimous opposition by Democrats to make Judge Barrett the 115th justice of the Supreme Court and the fifth woman ever to sit on its bench .
In a 52-to-48 vote , all but one Republican , Susan Collins of Maine , who herself is battling for re-election , supported Judge Barrett , a 48-year-old appeals court @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Scalia .
It was the first time in 151 years that a justice was confirmed without a single vote from the minority party , a sign of how bitter Washington ’ s decades-old war over judicial nominations has become .
The swearing in will take place tonight at the White House : Amy Coney Barrett is slated to be sworn in to the Supreme Court at a White House ceremony Monday evening , the White House announced shortly after her nomination was confirmed by the Senate .
Barrett will swear two oaths , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ White House by Justice Clarence Thomas , according to a senior White House official , and the judicial oath on Tuesday by Chief Justice John Roberts .
I ’ ll update this post with video of the swearing in when it ’ s available .
Meanwhile , here are some reactions from Twitter : And from the left : Update : Here ’ s the swearing in ceremony at the White House .
You ’ ll have to scroll in a bit to get to the start of this .
I missed this @ @ @

Here’s the moment the vote was announced by Sen. Grassley:
Here’s the report from the NY Times:
Inside a Capitol mostly emptied by the resurgent coronavirus pandemic and an election looming in just eight days, Republicans overcame unanimous opposition by Democrats to make Judge Barrett the 115th justice of the Supreme Court and the fifth woman ever to sit on its bench. In a 52-to-48 vote, all but one Republican, Susan Collins of Maine, who herself is battling for re-election, supported Judge Barrett, a 48-year-old appeals court judge and protégée of former Justice Antonin Scalia. It was the first time in 151 years that a justice was confirmed without a single vote from the minority party, a sign of how bitter Washington’s decades-old war over judicial nominations has become.
The swearing in will take place tonight at the White House:
Amy Coney Barrett is slated to be sworn in to the Supreme Court at a White House ceremony Monday evening, the White House announced shortly after her nomination was confirmed by the Senate. Barrett will swear two oaths, a constitutional one expected Monday at the White House by Justice Clarence Thomas, according to a senior White House official, and the judicial oath on Tuesday by Chief Justice John Roberts.
I’ll update this post with video of the swearing in when it’s available. Meanwhile, here are some reactions from Twitter:
The Senate just confirmed Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court of the United States. One of the most impressive nominees for public office in a generation will serve for life on our highest court. pic.twitter.com/qkJ0FPbTv1 — Leader McConnell (@LeaderMcConnell) October 27, 2020
President Trump retweeted this:
Amy Coney Barrett has been confirmed by the Senate — Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) October 27, 2020
We did it! Justice Barrett is now a reality. A great day for conservative women and the American people! pic.twitter.com/lXdctkCwuJ — Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) October 27, 2020
Judge Barrett is now Justice Barrett. — Senator Ted Cruz (@SenTedCruz) October 27, 2020
Confirming Judge Barrett is a great victory for every American who cherishes our fundamental liberties. #JusticeBarrett #SCOTUS — Senator Ted Cruz (@SenTedCruz) October 27, 2020
The republican senate has confirmed 220 federal judges nominated by @realDonaldTrump incl 3 Supreme Court justices w 2nite’s confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett This is another PROMISE MADE, PROMISE KEPT by Pres Trump — ChuckGrassley (@ChuckGrassley) October 27, 2020
Justice Amy Coney Barrett! — Governor Kristi Noem (@govkristinoem) October 26, 2020
Amy Coney Barrett, confirmed. Happy Birthday, @HillaryClinton! — House Judiciary GOP (@JudiciaryGOP) October 27, 2020
Democrats, mad. Constitution, protected. Amy Coney Barrett, confirmed. — Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) October 27, 2020
And from the left:
We are going to take back the White House & Senate next week with a resounding mandate from the people to fight back against Trump’s illegitimately stacked judiciary. We must expand the Court if we’re serious about the transformational change the people are crying out for. — Rashida Tlaib (@RashidaTlaib) October 27, 2020
Update: Here’s the swearing in ceremony at the White House. You’ll have to scroll in a bit to get to the start of this.
I missed this one before:


hotair--2020-10-27--Trump tells Michigan women: We're putting your husbands back to work

Made me laugh , although lefties were in high dudgeon about the clip earlier this afternoon .
“ WOMEN WORK TOO , YOU KNOW.
” In fairness , wanting to go back to the way things used to be has been the underlying theme of MAGA since the beginning .
A simpler time , when all of those “ housewives ” who live in the suburbs didn ’ t need to worry about the wrong kind of people moving into the neighborhood : The good news about the clip is that he really did put a lot of husbands — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his first three years in office and his best shot at reelection remains emphasizing that fact on the stump .
Michigan ’ s unemployment rate dropped from a low 4.9 percent when he took office to a low-low 3.6 percent before COVID arrived .
The total number out of work declined by 57,000 over the same period .
With a record like that , it ’ s hard to believe he ’ s down nearly 10 points in state polls .
But a bad attitude about the pandemic and a lot , lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years will do that , apparently .
It may be a matter too of which kinds of jobs have been created and which haven ’ t .
Trump ’ s appeal in the Rust Belt was due in part to his nationalist promises to repatriate jobs , particularly manufacturing jobs .
According to one recent analysis , though , Michigan saw a 211 percent increase in jobs being offshored between 2017 and 2019 relative to the prior three years .
Yesterday WaPo looked back at one of Trump ’ s most famous moments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the time — when he swooped in and convinced management at Carrier in Indiana not to follow through on a plan to move their plant to Mexico .
That was a huge PR victory for him during the transition period , with Trump telling Carrier employees , “ Companies are not going to leave the United States anymore without consequences .
It ’ s not going to happen .
We ’ re not going to have it anymore.
” This year alone , Indiana employers have sent more jobs to Mexico , China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were saved at Carrier .
Without headlines or presidential notice , at least 17 companies — names like Vibracoustic , Molnlycke Health Care , Allura , Altex , Stanley Black & Decker , Dometic , Johnson Controls and Horizon Terra — have closed plants or otherwise reduced employment in Indiana and moved jobs abroad , according to U.S. Department of Labor filings… Indeed , the domestic manufacturing renaissance that the president promised has withered .
After rising by 4 percent during his first two years on the job , manufacturing employment began sliding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put the economy in a deep freeze .
Today , the United States has fewer factory workers than when Trump was inaugurated and about as many as in 1941 .
Indiana manufacturing employment stands at a six-year low .
There are other holes in the protectionist pitch .
In August the U.S. trade deficit reached a 14-year high .
And last year an NBC poll found support for free trade climbing to more than 70 percent among independents and Democrats , with even Republicans shifting back to narrow majority support .
How much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s personal unpopularity infecting the popularity of his policy positions and how much of it is a reaction on the merits to whether his trade war has worked or not , who knows .
But it may be spilling over into the Rust Belt polling .
Back to the clip up top , though .
Trump can and will be forgiven by most voters for the insinuation that men work while women stay at home — he ’ s 74 , and the olds get extra slack on stuff like that — but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a few days ago didn ’ t get more media attention .
This felt less like a case of a senior citizen idly lapsing into an antiquated view of women and more like a case of Trump deliberately implying that having a woman as president would be a special liability for the country .
“ Especially a female ” ?
What ’ s he getting at there ?
What makes Bernie Sanders preferable to Bernadette Sanders ?
The fact that the press largely glossed over that one even though he said it in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the media is desperate to see Biden win is among the best proof yet that they ’ re just exhausted from chasing after Trump ’ s daily cringy statements after four years .
There are only so many hours in the day they can spend at the keyboard .
Some stuff has to go by the boards .

Made me laugh, although lefties were in high dudgeon about the clip earlier this afternoon. “WOMEN WORK TOO, YOU KNOW.”
Trump: We’re getting your husbands back to work pic.twitter.com/MOHh0d1Vu7 — Acyn (@Acyn) October 27, 2020
In fairness, wanting to go back to the way things used to be has been the underlying theme of MAGA since the beginning. A simpler time, when all of those “housewives” who live in the suburbs didn’t need to worry about the wrong kind of people moving into the neighborhood:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1293517514798960640
The good news about the clip is that he really did put a lot of husbands — and wives — back to work over his first three years in office and his best shot at reelection remains emphasizing that fact on the stump. Michigan’s unemployment rate dropped from a low 4.9 percent when he took office to a low-low 3.6 percent before COVID arrived. The total number out of work declined by 57,000 over the same period. With a record like that, it’s hard to believe he’s down nearly 10 points in state polls. But a bad attitude about the pandemic and a lot, lot, lot of indecorous behavior over four years will do that, apparently.
It may be a matter too of which kinds of jobs have been created and which haven’t. Trump’s appeal in the Rust Belt was due in part to his nationalist promises to repatriate jobs, particularly manufacturing jobs. According to one recent analysis, though, Michigan saw a 211 percent increase in jobs being offshored between 2017 and 2019 relative to the prior three years. Yesterday WaPo looked back at one of Trump’s most famous moments as president — actually, president-elect at the time — when he swooped in and convinced management at Carrier in Indiana not to follow through on a plan to move their plant to Mexico. That was a huge PR victory for him during the transition period, with Trump telling Carrier employees, “Companies are not going to leave the United States anymore without consequences. It’s not going to happen. We’re not going to have it anymore.”
But:
This year alone, Indiana employers have sent more jobs to Mexico, China, India and other foreign countries than were saved at Carrier. Without headlines or presidential notice, at least 17 companies — names like Vibracoustic, Molnlycke Health Care, Allura, Altex, Stanley Black & Decker, Dometic, Johnson Controls and Horizon Terra — have closed plants or otherwise reduced employment in Indiana and moved jobs abroad, according to U.S. Department of Labor filings… Indeed, the domestic manufacturing renaissance that the president promised has withered. After rising by 4 percent during his first two years on the job, manufacturing employment began sliding late last year even before the pandemic put the economy in a deep freeze. Today, the United States has fewer factory workers than when Trump was inaugurated and about as many as in 1941. Indiana manufacturing employment stands at a six-year low.
There are other holes in the protectionist pitch. In August the U.S. trade deficit reached a 14-year high. And last year an NBC poll found support for free trade climbing to more than 70 percent among independents and Democrats, with even Republicans shifting back to narrow majority support. How much of that is due to Trump’s personal unpopularity infecting the popularity of his policy positions and how much of it is a reaction on the merits to whether his trade war has worked or not, who knows. But it may be spilling over into the Rust Belt polling.
Back to the clip up top, though. Trump can and will be forgiven by most voters for the insinuation that men work while women stay at home — he’s 74, and the olds get extra slack on stuff like that — but I’m surprised this soundbite from a few days ago didn’t get more media attention. This felt less like a case of a senior citizen idly lapsing into an antiquated view of women and more like a case of Trump deliberately implying that having a woman as president would be a special liability for the country.
Attacking Sen. Kamala Harris, Trump intentionally mispronounces her name and says she “will not be your first female president … we’re not going to have a socialist president, especially a female socialist president.” Harris is not a socialist. pic.twitter.com/T5H47FryTP — The American Independent (@AmerIndependent) October 23, 2020
“Especially a female”? What’s he getting at there? What makes Bernie Sanders preferable to Bernadette Sanders?
The fact that the press largely glossed over that one even though he said it in the final days of a campaign which the media is desperate to see Biden win is among the best proof yet that they’re just exhausted from chasing after Trump’s daily cringy statements after four years. There are only so many hours in the day they can spend at the keyboard. Some stuff has to go by the boards.


hotair--2020-10-27--Boom: Court hands NXIVM celebrity cult leader 120 years in prison

His victims wanted the court to impose a life sentence on “ Vanguard.
” The judge may have done them one better .
Keith Raniere , leader of the NXIVM cult that extorted and literally branded some of the women who followed him , got a sentence of 120 years for sex trafficking and racketeering .
Victims who waited sixteen months for his sentencing finally got their full vindication : Disgraced self-improvement guru Keith Raniere , whose NXIVM followers included millionaires and Hollywood actors , was sentenced to 120 years on Tuesday for turning some adherents into sex slaves branded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nicholas Garaufis called Raniere “ ruthless and unyielding ” in crimes that were “ particularly egregious ” because he targeted girls and young women .
He handed down the unusually high sentence in federal court in Brooklyn after hearing anguished statements by victims of a sex-trafficking conspiracy that resulted in Raniere ’ s conviction last year , along with unrepentant remarks from the defendant himself .
… Prosecutors had sought life in prison while defense lawyers said he should face 15 years behind bars .
The sentencing culminated several years of revelations about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which charged thousands of dollars for invitation-only self improvement courses at its headquarters near Albany , New York , along with branches in Mexico and Canada .
Adherents included millionaires and Hollywood actors willing to endure humiliation and pledge obedience to the defendant as part of his teachings .
This conviction took place in federal court , appropriately so considering the international scope of NXIVM .
Raniere at one point in 2017 took off for Mexico , when federal investigators finally began looking into the reports of abuse , fraud , and extortion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the program under which women were trafficked to Raniere and branded with his initials .
Reporters had begun raising questions about Raniere and his “ Executive Success Program ” as early as 2003 , but the group ’ s extortion scheme apparently kept many potential witnesses silent .
Rolling Stone offered a fairly concise description of Raniere ’ s schemes last year , as part of a deeper dive into his depravity : NXIVM was founded by Raniere and Nancy Salzman , a former registered nurse with schoolmarm glasses and a sensible haircut @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” while she was known as “ Prefect.
” Recruits paid more than $ 7,500 for grueling , 12-hour “ intensives ” featuring NXIVM ’ s patented Executive Success Program ( ESP ) technology , a patchwork of various self-help programs , religious ideologies , and hypnosis techniques .
They could also take classes through the smaller companies under the NXIVM umbrella : the Source , a workshop for actors led by [ Allison ] Mack ; Delegates , a Task Rabbit-esque startup primarily staffed by younger , female members ; and JNESS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wall features Martin Luther King Jr. quotes juxtaposed against a pastel-pink template .
At the head of all of these companies was Raniere , 59 , a self-proclaimed former-child-prodigy-turned-guru , who stood trial last summer on sex trafficking , racketeering , and racketeering conspiracy charges .
Raniere was accused , among other things , of using NXIVM as a recruitment network for DOS , which prosecutors referred to as a secret “ sex cult ” within NXIVM .
Mack and other female NXIVM members were the “ masters , ” while Raniere was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the group , instructing women in DOS to recruit “ slaves ” for the purpose of his sexual pleasure .
The branding Raniere described in the January 2016 conversation with Mack was part of the slaves ’ initiation ritual .
The women recruited as DOS slaves , as they recounted on the stand , were told to give up “ collateral ” as the price of entry , such as videos of themselves masturbating or postmarked “ confessions ” that relatives or loved ones had sexually abused them .
They were told @ @ @ @ @ @ @ photos of their unshaven vulvas , always keeping their faces in the shot so they were fully identifiable .
They were told to stick to low-calorie diets , to wake up in the middle of the night to respond to “ readiness drills ” or texts from their “ masters ” or risk being paddled , and to abstain from sexual activity with anyone but Raniere .
They talked about how they were instructed to buy BDSM sex toys as part of a “ dungeon ” to be built in the basement of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vibrating rubber paddles , and “ puppy plugs … perfect for puppy play or naughty slaves.
” ( Plans for the dungeon were scrapped when the Feds started closing in . )
Many , though not all of them , were branded , and they talked about how excruciatingly painful it was : how you could hear the cauterizing pen sizzle against raw skin , how one woman squealed and screamed so loud and so long that the women gave her a cloth to bite on .
If people and investigators averted their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s no avoiding it now .
HBO featured a documentary on NXIVM called The Vow , which I have not had access to watch , but we have begun watching India Oxenberg ’ s documentary series Seduced : Inside the NXIVM Cult on Starz .
Only the first two episodes have aired yet , but it is a disturbing look at a cult that could have gotten a lot worse had Raniere not been stopped — or gotten much , much broader if Raniere had disciplined his sociopathic impulses more stringently .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ elements between NXIVM and Scientology , as exposed in Leah Remini ’ s own documentary series on the latter topic for A & E .
Raniere appears to have lifted some Scientology elements wholesale , right down to its Hollywood strategy and the common identification of critics as “ suppressives ” and the policies implemented toward them .
The sexual sadism is all Raniere ’ s , however , and turned out to be his undoing .
Raniere and his remaining supporters hoped to convince the court to give him a more lenient @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overall positive impact on society .
The judge was having none of that , and at one point reacted angrily when Raniere ’ s attorney tried using a sob story to plead for mercy : To this day , Mr. Raniere has many supporters who believe he was wrongfully convicted and insist that every activity in Nxivm was among consenting adults .
Dozens wrote letters to the court urging leniency .
… After the victims ’ statements , Mr. Raniere ’ s lawyer , Marc Agnifilo , argued that his client never intended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was in love with them and simply had trouble dealing with breakups .
In a stunning moment , Judge Garaufis interrupted Mr. Agnifilo in the middle of his speech , yelling , “ No !
” During a back-and-forth in which the two men shouted through face masks , Judge Garaufis spoke forcefully about how intent did not matter when a 45-year-old man sexually abuses a child .
“ It ’ s an insult to the intelligence of anyone who listens , ” the judge said .
Clearly , that strategy didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Since this is a sentence in federal court , parole is not an option .
Raniere can earn as many as 54 days off his sentence a year for good behavior , but 15 % off of 120 years is still 102 years .
His attorneys can work on sentence reductions on appeal , but given the breathtaking scope of his crimes and the depth of his depravity , Raniere had better not hold his breath for any kind of release .
Next up : the sentencing of Hollywood star Allison Mack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conspiracy in a plea deal in April 2019 .
Seagrams heiress Clare Bronfman got six-plus years on fraud and trafficking-related charges and agreed to pony up $ 6 million last month .
She and her sister Sara face a number of lawsuits over the Bronfman ’ s alleged bankrolling and protection of Raniere , which means this case will go on for quite a while — and hopefully serve as a lesson to others .
It will likely be a very long while before Mack gets in front of the cameras again … @ @ @

His victims wanted the court to impose a life sentence on “Vanguard.” The judge may have done them one better. Keith Raniere, leader of the NXIVM cult that extorted and literally branded some of the women who followed him, got a sentence of 120 years for sex trafficking and racketeering. Victims who waited sixteen months for his sentencing finally got their full vindication:
Disgraced self-improvement guru Keith Raniere, whose NXIVM followers included millionaires and Hollywood actors, was sentenced to 120 years on Tuesday for turning some adherents into sex slaves branded with his initials. U.S. District Judge Nicholas Garaufis called Raniere “ruthless and unyielding” in crimes that were “particularly egregious” because he targeted girls and young women. He handed down the unusually high sentence in federal court in Brooklyn after hearing anguished statements by victims of a sex-trafficking conspiracy that resulted in Raniere’s conviction last year, along with unrepentant remarks from the defendant himself. … Prosecutors had sought life in prison while defense lawyers said he should face 15 years behind bars. The sentencing culminated several years of revelations about Raniere’s program, NXIVM, which charged thousands of dollars for invitation-only self improvement courses at its headquarters near Albany, New York, along with branches in Mexico and Canada. Adherents included millionaires and Hollywood actors willing to endure humiliation and pledge obedience to the defendant as part of his teachings.
This conviction took place in federal court, appropriately so considering the international scope of NXIVM. Raniere at one point in 2017 took off for Mexico, when federal investigators finally began looking into the reports of abuse, fraud, and extortion within NXIVM and its subsidiary DOS, the program under which women were trafficked to Raniere and branded with his initials. Reporters had begun raising questions about Raniere and his “Executive Success Program” as early as 2003, but the group’s extortion scheme apparently kept many potential witnesses silent.
Rolling Stone offered a fairly concise description of Raniere’s schemes last year, as part of a deeper dive into his depravity:
NXIVM was founded by Raniere and Nancy Salzman, a former registered nurse with schoolmarm glasses and a sensible haircut; he was called “Vanguard,” while she was known as “Prefect.” Recruits paid more than $7,500 for grueling, 12-hour “intensives” featuring NXIVM’s patented Executive Success Program (ESP) technology, a patchwork of various self-help programs, religious ideologies, and hypnosis techniques. They could also take classes through the smaller companies under the NXIVM umbrella: the Source, a workshop for actors led by [Allison] Mack; Delegates, a Task Rabbit-esque startup primarily staffed by younger, female members; and JNESS, a female empowerment group whose Facebook wall features Martin Luther King Jr. quotes juxtaposed against a pastel-pink template. At the head of all of these companies was Raniere, 59, a self-proclaimed former-child-prodigy-turned-guru, who stood trial last summer on sex trafficking, racketeering, and racketeering conspiracy charges. Raniere was accused, among other things, of using NXIVM as a recruitment network for DOS, which prosecutors referred to as a secret “sex cult” within NXIVM. Mack and other female NXIVM members were the “masters,” while Raniere was the “grandmaster” at the head of the group, instructing women in DOS to recruit “slaves” for the purpose of his sexual pleasure. The branding Raniere described in the January 2016 conversation with Mack was part of the slaves’ initiation ritual. The women recruited as DOS slaves, as they recounted on the stand, were told to give up “collateral” as the price of entry, such as videos of themselves masturbating or postmarked “confessions” that relatives or loved ones had sexually abused them. They were told to text their “masters” up-close photos of their unshaven vulvas, always keeping their faces in the shot so they were fully identifiable. They were told to stick to low-calorie diets, to wake up in the middle of the night to respond to “readiness drills” or texts from their “masters” or risk being paddled, and to abstain from sexual activity with anyone but Raniere. They talked about how they were instructed to buy BDSM sex toys as part of a “dungeon” to be built in the basement of DOS headquarters that would include cages, vibrating rubber paddles, and “puppy plugs … perfect for puppy play or naughty slaves.” (Plans for the dungeon were scrapped when the Feds started closing in.) Many, though not all of them, were branded, and they talked about how excruciatingly painful it was: how you could hear the cauterizing pen sizzle against raw skin, how one woman squealed and screamed so loud and so long that the women gave her a cloth to bite on.
If people and investigators averted their eyes prior to 2017, there’s no avoiding it now. HBO featured a documentary on NXIVM called The Vow, which I have not had access to watch, but we have begun watching India Oxenberg’s documentary series Seduced: Inside the NXIVM Cult on Starz. Only the first two episodes have aired yet, but it is a disturbing look at a cult that could have gotten a lot worse had Raniere not been stopped — or gotten much, much broader if Raniere had disciplined his sociopathic impulses more stringently. It’s impossible to ignore the similar elements between NXIVM and Scientology, as exposed in Leah Remini’s own documentary series on the latter topic for A&E. Raniere appears to have lifted some Scientology elements wholesale, right down to its Hollywood strategy and the common identification of critics as “suppressives” and the policies implemented toward them. The sexual sadism is all Raniere’s, however, and turned out to be his undoing.
Raniere and his remaining supporters hoped to convince the court to give him a more lenient sentence, arguing that his was an overall positive impact on society. The judge was having none of that, and at one point reacted angrily when Raniere’s attorney tried using a sob story to plead for mercy:
To this day, Mr. Raniere has many supporters who believe he was wrongfully convicted and insist that every activity in Nxivm was among consenting adults. Dozens wrote letters to the court urging leniency. … After the victims’ statements, Mr. Raniere’s lawyer, Marc Agnifilo, argued that his client never intended to hurt any women, saying he was in love with them and simply had trouble dealing with breakups. In a stunning moment, Judge Garaufis interrupted Mr. Agnifilo in the middle of his speech, yelling, “No!” During a back-and-forth in which the two men shouted through face masks, Judge Garaufis spoke forcefully about how intent did not matter when a 45-year-old man sexually abuses a child. “It’s an insult to the intelligence of anyone who listens,” the judge said.
Clearly, that strategy didn’t work out too well for Raniere. Since this is a sentence in federal court, parole is not an option. Raniere can earn as many as 54 days off his sentence a year for good behavior, but 15% off of 120 years is still 102 years. His attorneys can work on sentence reductions on appeal, but given the breathtaking scope of his crimes and the depth of his depravity, Raniere had better not hold his breath for any kind of release.
Next up: the sentencing of Hollywood star Allison Mack, who pled guilty to racketeering and conspiracy in a plea deal in April 2019. Seagrams heiress Clare Bronfman got six-plus years on fraud and trafficking-related charges and agreed to pony up $6 million last month. She and her sister Sara face a number of lawsuits over the Bronfman’s alleged bankrolling and protection of Raniere, which means this case will go on for quite a while — and hopefully serve as a lesson to others. It will likely be a very long while before Mack gets in front of the cameras again … if ever.


hotair--2020-10-27--RNC chair: Biden's going to put Hillary on the Supreme Court

Only a total moron could believe there ’ s a chance of this happening .
Morning Joe has no excuse for entertaining such silliness , no matter how much it might tickle him to imagine Biden owning the cons that way .
Democrats won ’ t waste a SCOTUS appointment on a 73-year-old , whether in a Court-packing scenario or otherwise .
The left has been so traumatized by the trifecta of losing the chance to replace Scalia , seeing Kavanaugh confirmed despite Christine Blasey Ford ’ s testimony , and watching the Ginsburg seat slip from their grasp two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ll insist their next picks be as vacancy-proof as possible .
They ’ ll put some 25-year-old communist on the Court and not have to worry about the seat again for 50 years .
It ’ s more understandable that the head of the RNC would be pushing this line .
As stupid as it is , it ’ s solid red-meat material for a Republican rally : I ’ m surprised that our president , who ’ s very much not discerning about the quality of the information he passes along @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seize on the possibility of a Justice Hillary long ago in his attacks on Biden .
Even though it ’ s nonsense , it would have been fun watching Biden cornered into pissing off Clinton fans by having to deny it .
“ I ’ m not appointing Hillary Clinton to anything , doggone it !
” Mainly , though , it would give Trump a chance to run against a deeply disliked Democrat again .
That ’ s been his problem all along with Biden : His talent is stoking fear and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isn ’ t menacing enough to give him good traction .
Even Trump ’ s big last-second hit on him , that his son is a pitiful crackhead trading on his dad ’ s name , is more tragic than infuriating .
In hindsight , I ’ m surprised he and his team didn ’ t work harder to try to make Biden a proxy for Obama and/or Clinton instead of a proxy for Hunter Biden and/or socialism .
If you ’ re not going to spend your time comparing your policy successes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which is what Trump should have done all along , at least make him a stand-in for Democrats whom righties deeply despise .
Ronna McDaniel ’ s got the right idea with the “ Justice Hillary ” thing .
It ’ s just a wee bit late .
But no , needless to say , Biden ’ s not handing a SCOTUS seat to a septuagenarian .
What he needs is someone who ’ s a bit younger , legally trained , and of sufficient renown in his party that putting that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrats that they end up deciding to drop the Court-packing nonsense and relish their new justice instead .
If only there were someone in the party who fit that descrip– hey , wait a minute .
Nah , he ’ d never take the job .
He has important climate-change documentaries to produce on Netflix or whatever .

C’mon, man.
Only a total moron could believe there’s a chance of this happening.
I give you Exhibit A:
What a great birthday gift it will be next year for @HillaryClinton when she is one of the three new Supreme Court justices appointed through the Judiciary Reform Act of 2021. Thanks for the idea, guys. Only your colleagues’ thuggish behavior made it possible.#ReformTheCourt https://t.co/9Ae4PVnH1Q — Joe Scarborough (@JoeNBC) October 27, 2020
Morning Joe has no excuse for entertaining such silliness, no matter how much it might tickle him to imagine Biden owning the cons that way. Democrats won’t waste a SCOTUS appointment on a 73-year-old, whether in a Court-packing scenario or otherwise. The left has been so traumatized by the trifecta of losing the chance to replace Scalia, seeing Kavanaugh confirmed despite Christine Blasey Ford’s testimony, and watching the Ginsburg seat slip from their grasp two months out from an election that they’ll insist their next picks be as vacancy-proof as possible. They’ll put some 25-year-old communist on the Court and not have to worry about the seat again for 50 years.
It’s more understandable that the head of the RNC would be pushing this line. As stupid as it is, it’s solid red-meat material for a Republican rally:
Well, this is a new one. RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel just warned a crowd at Trump's Lansing, Michigan rally that Biden will pack the court AND nominate @HillaryClinton to the Supreme Court. — Jeremy Diamond (@JDiamond1) October 27, 2020
I’m surprised that our president, who’s very much not discerning about the quality of the information he passes along to the public, didn’t seize on the possibility of a Justice Hillary long ago in his attacks on Biden. Even though it’s nonsense, it would have been fun watching Biden cornered into pissing off Clinton fans by having to deny it. “I’m not appointing Hillary Clinton to anything, doggone it!”
Mainly, though, it would give Trump a chance to run against a deeply disliked Democrat again. That’s been his problem all along with Biden: His talent is stoking fear and loathing of his enemies and Sleepy Joe isn’t menacing enough to give him good traction. Even Trump’s big last-second hit on him, that his son is a pitiful crackhead trading on his dad’s name, is more tragic than infuriating. In hindsight, I’m surprised he and his team didn’t work harder to try to make Biden a proxy for Obama and/or Clinton instead of a proxy for Hunter Biden and/or socialism. If you’re not going to spend your time comparing your policy successes to your opponent’s policy failures, which is what Trump should have done all along, at least make him a stand-in for Democrats whom righties deeply despise. Ronna McDaniel’s got the right idea with the “Justice Hillary” thing. It’s just a wee bit late.
But no, needless to say, Biden’s not handing a SCOTUS seat to a septuagenarian. What he needs is someone who’s a bit younger, legally trained, and of sufficient renown in his party that putting that person on the Court might so excite Democrats that they end up deciding to drop the Court-packing nonsense and relish their new justice instead. If only there were someone in the party who fit that descrip– hey, wait a minute.
Obama: “With everything that’s happening, you know what [Trump] brought up? He was fussing about the crowd size at the inauguration again, saying his was bigger. Who’s thinking about that right now?… he’s jealous of Covid’s media coverage… he’s turned the WH into a hot zone.” pic.twitter.com/vThmznpHwl — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 27, 2020
Nah, he’d never take the job. He has important climate-change documentaries to produce on Netflix or whatever.


hotair--2020-10-27--The Muslim world is protesting France after the beheading of a teacher by an Islamic extremist

Last week there were mass rallies in the streets of several French cities after the beheading of a teacher by an Islamic extremist .
In response to the grisly murder on Oct. 16 , people wanted to stand up in support of French values including secularism and free expression , the same values teacher Samuel Paty was killed over .
But the French response led by President Macron has created a backlash in some Muslim countries who are launching boycotts of French products : The piece goes on to suggest the threatened boycotts will likely fade away on their own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upset people in Muslim countries but he seems to be tapping into some renewed fear at home : A survey this week by the Ifop polling firm found an overwhelming majority of respondents considered France ’ s secular values were in danger , and that radical Islam was at war with the country .
“ Laïcité is not against religion but allows everyone to live his religion or be atheist , ” said Elisabeth Gandin , who joined thousands at Paris ’ Place de la Republique to protest the attack against Paty .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Charlie cartoons , but I ’ m on the streets to defend the right to say things some may not like.
” Bolstering those views may be another recent Ifop survey suggesting that 40 % of Muslims , including more than three-quarters of those under 25 , put their religious convictions ahead of the country .
Those figures were far higher than for non-Muslims , although skeptics have questioned how the survey ’ s questions were framed .
Writing in Politico Europe , John Lichfield points out that France has a experienced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years .
A trial connected to the attack on Charlie Hebdo is currently taking place .
Lichfield argues that the reaction to France ’ s current actions from some on the left has been “ dishonest and dangerous.
” There have been 36 serious or very serious Islamist terror attacks in France in the eight years since Mohamed Merah murdered three children outside a Jewish school in Toulouse and killed five other people in March 2012 .
It will soon be five years since a series of coordinated suicide attacks on the Bataclan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slaughtered 130 Friday evening revelers .
The following year 86 people died when a 19-tonne truck was driven into crowds in Nice celebrating France ’ s national day .
To imply that France is more culprit than victim — as Erdoğan and some Western critics do — is dishonest and dangerous .
France has suffered more from Islamist terrorism than any other European country in the last decade .
The great majority of the attacks have had no direct connection with Charlie Hebdo magazine ’ s publication of cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been something scattergun about the Macron government ’ s security reaction since the Paty murder but nothing draconian .
Macron should continue to tune out his critics in the Muslim world and at the NY Times and elsewhere .
The French people are justifiably scared about what has been happening the past several years and cracking down on groups with connections to violent extremists is reasonable under the circumstances .
The French are still fighting for the ideals of free expression that , unfortunately , some on the American left are eager to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the protests in Bangladesh .

Last week there were mass rallies in the streets of several French cities after the beheading of a teacher by an Islamic extremist. In response to the grisly murder on Oct. 16, people wanted to stand up in support of French values including secularism and free expression, the same values teacher Samuel Paty was killed over. But the French response led by President Macron has created a backlash in some Muslim countries who are launching boycotts of French products:
The piece goes on to suggest the threatened boycotts will likely fade away on their own. President Macron’s actions may upset people in Muslim countries but he seems to be tapping into some renewed fear at home:
A survey this week by the Ifop polling firm found an overwhelming majority of respondents considered France’s secular values were in danger, and that radical Islam was at war with the country. “Laïcité is not against religion but allows everyone to live his religion or be atheist,” said Elisabeth Gandin, who joined thousands at Paris’ Place de la Republique to protest the attack against Paty. “I don’t agree with the Charlie cartoons, but I’m on the streets to defend the right to say things some may not like.” Bolstering those views may be another recent Ifop survey suggesting that 40% of Muslims, including more than three-quarters of those under 25, put their religious convictions ahead of the country. Those figures were far higher than for non-Muslims, although skeptics have questioned how the survey’s questions were framed.
Writing in Politico Europe, John Lichfield points out that France has a experienced terrorism up close and personal in recent years. A trial connected to the attack on Charlie Hebdo is currently taking place. Lichfield argues that the reaction to France’s current actions from some on the left has been “dishonest and dangerous.”
There have been 36 serious or very serious Islamist terror attacks in France in the eight years since Mohamed Merah murdered three children outside a Jewish school in Toulouse and killed five other people in March 2012. It will soon be five years since a series of coordinated suicide attacks on the Bataclan music venue and nearby bars in Paris slaughtered 130 Friday evening revelers. The following year 86 people died when a 19-tonne truck was driven into crowds in Nice celebrating France’s national day. To imply that France is more culprit than victim — as Erdoğan and some Western critics do — is dishonest and dangerous. France has suffered more from Islamist terrorism than any other European country in the last decade. The great majority of the attacks have had no direct connection with Charlie Hebdo magazine’s publication of cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad. To be sure, there has been something scattergun about the Macron government’s security reaction since the Paty murder but nothing draconian.
Macron should continue to tune out his critics in the Muslim world and at the NY Times and elsewhere. The French people are justifiably scared about what has been happening the past several years and cracking down on groups with connections to violent extremists is reasonable under the circumstances. The French are still fighting for the ideals of free expression that, unfortunately, some on the American left are eager to abandon.
Update: Some video of the protests in Bangladesh.
https://twitter.com/77Alamparvez/status/1321030006823243776


hotair--2020-10-27--Philadelphia police officers run down by a truck during "peaceful protests"

Previously , Ed wrote about the police shooting of Walter Wallace , Jr. of Philadelphia after he allegedly rushed at officers while bearing a knife .
That led to the inevitable marches by BLM supporters that quickly devolved into violence , looting and arson .
The Philadelphia Police were out in force trying to keep a lid on the violence , but things quickly spiraled out of control .
Later in the evening , however , the rioters got a bit of vehicular assistance from someone in a large , black pickup truck who decided to deliberately crash through a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least two of them and sending one to the hospital .
Order has yet to be restored to the streets .
( NY Post ) At least one police officer was run over by a truck in Philadelphia as protesters stormed the streets Monday night in response to a fatal police shooting earlier in the day .
The officer who was struck can be seen in footage on social media as a black truck swerves into a group of officers lined across the street to protect against oncoming demonstrators , the Philadelphia Inquirer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was not immediately clear .
As has become the norm in these riots , someone was on hand with a cellphone camera running at the moment the truck ran down the police officers .
The usual cautions about disturbing content apply .
The “ peaceful protests ” were inevitable at that point .
But as we ’ ve seen in virtually every one of these riots , many of the people who showed up likely had no interest in “ justice for Walter Wallace.
” They were there to loot whatever they could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people were able to film the looting as it was taking place .
In this next video from the same Twitter user , unlike some previous riots , the police eventually moved into some of the stores and began apprehending the looters .
This is yet another of the same sort of chain of events we ’ ve seen too many times .
The Philadelphia Police were wearing body cameras as required and the sequence of events doesn ’ t seem to be terribly ambiguous .
Wallace is seen with a knife , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own friends and family attempt to stop him , but he rushes the cops anyway .
How anyone is honestly surprised that they shot him at that point is unknown .
If you rush the cops with a knife you ’ re very likely going to experience a very bad outcome .
But the response from the public was even more sadly predictable .
First , there was marching and chanting , which is fine , if perhaps not all that justified in this case .
But it quickly devolved into the usual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ often .
First , there were fires set in dumpsters and then police cars were set on fire .
As the violence spiraled out of control , many of the “ peaceful protesters ” began looting stores , hauling away everything that wasn ’ t nailed down .
How does destroying your own neighborhood and ransacking the businesses that provide jobs there constitute any sort of “ justice ” for Walter Wallace , even if you believe the police weren ’ t justified in shooting him ?
It doesn ’ t .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ streets , endangering the lives and livelihoods of everyone who lives there .
This has to be brought under control and I ’ m afraid the only answer is a stronger response from the municipal government and law enforcement .
As long as these opportunists and anarchists rightfully believe that they can get away with this mass violence without facing repercussions for their actions , they will keep on doing it .

Previously, Ed wrote about the police shooting of Walter Wallace, Jr. of Philadelphia after he allegedly rushed at officers while bearing a knife. That led to the inevitable marches by BLM supporters that quickly devolved into violence, looting and arson. The Philadelphia Police were out in force trying to keep a lid on the violence, but things quickly spiraled out of control. Later in the evening, however, the rioters got a bit of vehicular assistance from someone in a large, black pickup truck who decided to deliberately crash through a line of police officers, striking at least two of them and sending one to the hospital. Order has yet to be restored to the streets. (NY Post)
At least one police officer was run over by a truck in Philadelphia as protesters stormed the streets Monday night in response to a fatal police shooting earlier in the day. The officer who was struck can be seen in footage on social media as a black truck swerves into a group of officers lined across the street to protect against oncoming demonstrators, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported. The condition of the officer was not immediately clear.
As has become the norm in these riots, someone was on hand with a cellphone camera running at the moment the truck ran down the police officers. The usual cautions about disturbing content apply.
https://twitter.com/shanermurph/status/1320952219487842305
The “peaceful protests” were inevitable at that point. But as we’ve seen in virtually every one of these riots, many of the people who showed up likely had no interest in “justice for Walter Wallace.” They were there to loot whatever they could and engage in mayhem. Again, people were able to film the looting as it was taking place.
https://twitter.com/shanermurph/status/1320950807274098689
In this next video from the same Twitter user, unlike some previous riots, the police eventually moved into some of the stores and began apprehending the looters.
https://twitter.com/shanermurph/status/1320958818151522304
This is yet another of the same sort of chain of events we’ve seen too many times. The Philadelphia Police were wearing body cameras as required and the sequence of events doesn’t seem to be terribly ambiguous. Wallace is seen with a knife, attempting to approach the police. His own friends and family attempt to stop him, but he rushes the cops anyway. How anyone is honestly surprised that they shot him at that point is unknown. If you rush the cops with a knife you’re very likely going to experience a very bad outcome.
But the response from the public was even more sadly predictable. First, there was marching and chanting, which is fine, if perhaps not all that justified in this case. But it quickly devolved into the usual rioting we’ve seen all too often. First, there were fires set in dumpsters and then police cars were set on fire. As the violence spiraled out of control, many of the “peaceful protesters” began looting stores, hauling away everything that wasn’t nailed down.
How does destroying your own neighborhood and ransacking the businesses that provide jobs there constitute any sort of “justice” for Walter Wallace, even if you believe the police weren’t justified in shooting him? It doesn’t. It’s just more insanity in the streets, endangering the lives and livelihoods of everyone who lives there. This has to be brought under control and I’m afraid the only answer is a stronger response from the municipal government and law enforcement. As long as these opportunists and anarchists rightfully believe that they can get away with this mass violence without facing repercussions for their actions, they will keep on doing it.


hotair--2020-10-27--No, the Trump campaign isn't canceling most remaining ad spending in Florida

I ’ ll spare you another iteration of my spiel about how the most overexposed politician in American history probably isn ’ t moving any votes at this point with television ads , and therefore it doesn ’ t make sense to spend on them .
Especially in a state with multiple major media markets , where TV time is expensive .
Still , it ’ s a jolt to hear of a presidential candidate not going full throttle in the ultimate battleground a week out from Election Day .
Trump is now placing his final bet on just four @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ohio and Pennsylvania .
Polls show he ’ s down in all those states but Ohio , where it ’ s effectively even… The president still has $ 350,275 budgeted to spend on ads in Florida through Election Day , but has canceled $ 5.5 million in the final two weeks of the campaign , according to data compiled from ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics .
The Trump campaign says its organizational strength in Florida will carry it into Trump ’ s column on Election Night as Republicans get more in-person voters to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a ground game .
Joe Biden does not have one .
The president does , ” Trump communications director Tim Murtaugh said in a phone call with reporters Tuesday .
“ That ’ s why you saw the president close the gap in Florida.
” Biden ’ s spending $ 8 million in the final leg of the race , with millions more set for Pennsylvania , Michigan , and North Carolina .
I think Florida is a sensible state for Trump to bail on from the standpoint of triage , knowing that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ calculated gamble somewhere .
His campaign blew through its war chest and their fundraising hasn ’ t been able to keep pace with Biden ’ s ( which itself is a bad sign of grassroots enthusiasm ) , so now they ’ re forced to pick their spots .
Trump ’ s team is looking at Florida and reminding themselves that ( 1 ) he was underestimated there by the polls in 2016 ; ( 2 ) other Republicans were badly underestimated there in 2018 polling ; ( 3 ) he ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ among Cuban-Americans ; and ( 4 ) he ’ s facing steeper polling deficits in must-have states like Pennsylvania than he is in Florida right now .
If you ’ ve got a dollar to spend in either FL or PA , what ’ s the argument for spending it in the former ?
He needs to make up more ground in the latter .
So he ’ s rolling the dice , trusting that he ’ s ahead in Florida and the ground game will deliver for him on Tuesday .
Or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he would be doing if the story quoted above about him giving up on ads were accurate .
But Politico says it isn ’ t .
The ads will run .
It ’ s just that the RNC will be picking up the tab instead of Trump ’ s campaign : Trump ’ s going to focus his dwindling campaign resources instead on Pennsylvania , Ohio , Michigan , and , uh … am I reading the excerpt above right ?
He ’ s making a play for Minnesota ?
That is verrrrry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polling is showing signs of an upset that no one else is seeing ( remember that he got very close to flipping Minnesota four years ago ) , but in a year when he ’ s playing defense in battlegrounds and polls are showing a sharp leftward shift in states like Ohio and Iowa , it ’ s folly to think Minnesota is in play .
Biden leads there by six points in today ’ s RCP average .
If Trump ends up losing Florida by a whisker , there ’ ll be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to play offense in MN .
A friend involved in politics emailed me about the claim that Trump is dropping ads in Florida to say that he spoke to a Republican who ’ s tapped in and that person has heard from the campaign that Florida looks good for them per their internal polling .
On the other hand , if you believe HuffPost ’ s sources , the Trump campaign actually isn ’ t doing much polling there at all : Rick Wilson of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project , who ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , told HuffPost that “ A lot of their polling contractors stopped getting paid in September , so they ’ re not doing work .
They ’ re broke .
They ’ re largely flying blind right now.
” That may or may not be true , but it fits the picture of an operation that ’ s scrounging for cash to keep up amid Biden ’ s onslaught .
Which brings us back to a question that ’ s been asked repeatedly since the Trump campaign ’ s financial trouble became public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Moneybags reaching into his wallet to help Make America Great Again , Again ?
FiveThirtyEight ’ s weighted polling average has Biden ahead in Florida by two points today , 48.8 percent to 46.8 percent .
If Trump falls just short , his reluctance to self-fund is another topic he ’ ll be pressed on in the aftermath .
A man with deep pockets who claims that the fate of America is on the ballot next week isn ’ t acting like it when it comes to his own checkbook .
Here ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s early voting , by the way : Election Day turnout is expected to be much more red than blue , though .
Stay tuned .
I ’ ll leave you with this , in which the Trump campaign selectively cut a clip of Biden to make him sound demented even though he was quoting the Pope .

I’ll spare you another iteration of my spiel about how the most overexposed politician in American history probably isn’t moving any votes at this point with television ads, and therefore it doesn’t make sense to spend on them.
Especially in a state with multiple major media markets, where TV time is expensive.
Still, it’s a jolt to hear of a presidential candidate not going full throttle in the ultimate battleground a week out from Election Day.
Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show he’s down in all those states but Ohio, where it’s effectively even… The president still has $350,275 budgeted to spend on ads in Florida through Election Day, but has canceled $5.5 million in the final two weeks of the campaign, according to data compiled from ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics. The Trump campaign says its organizational strength in Florida will carry it into Trump’s column on Election Night as Republicans get more in-person voters to the polls. “You have to have a ground game. Joe Biden does not have one. The president does,” Trump communications director Tim Murtaugh said in a phone call with reporters Tuesday. “That’s why you saw the president close the gap in Florida.”
Biden’s spending $8 million in the final leg of the race, with millions more set for Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina. I think Florida is a sensible state for Trump to bail on from the standpoint of triage, knowing that he’s forced to take a calculated gamble somewhere. His campaign blew through its war chest and their fundraising hasn’t been able to keep pace with Biden’s (which itself is a bad sign of grassroots enthusiasm), so now they’re forced to pick their spots. Trump’s team is looking at Florida and reminding themselves that (1) he was underestimated there by the polls in 2016; (2) other Republicans were badly underestimated there in 2018 polling; (3) he’s overperforming with Latinos and has strong support among Cuban-Americans; and (4) he’s facing steeper polling deficits in must-have states like Pennsylvania than he is in Florida right now. If you’ve got a dollar to spend in either FL or PA, what’s the argument for spending it in the former? He needs to make up more ground in the latter.
So he’s rolling the dice, trusting that he’s ahead in Florida and the ground game will deliver for him on Tuesday. Or at least, that’s what he would be doing if the story quoted above about him giving up on ads were accurate.
But Politico says it isn’t. The ads will run. It’s just that the RNC will be picking up the tab instead of Trump’s campaign:
According to Ad Analytics, the suggestion that Trump is going dark on his TV buys in FL is false The campaign switched payee to the RNC. Ads are still running. The election is in a week. — Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) October 27, 2020
Trump’s spokesman says it’s pure BS:
Bloomberg moved a completely false story about ad spending. We are up in FL with a 7 figure buy, plus 6 figures in local cable, 6 figures in Spanish & 6 figures on radio. Irresponsible reporting that was never checked with the Trump campaign. The story should be retracted. — Tim Murtaugh (@TimMurtaugh) October 27, 2020
Trump’s going to focus his dwindling campaign resources instead on Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and, uh … am I reading the excerpt above right? He’s making a play for Minnesota?
That is verrrrry hard to justify. Maybe his internal polling is showing signs of an upset that no one else is seeing (remember that he got very close to flipping Minnesota four years ago), but in a year when he’s playing defense in battlegrounds and polls are showing a sharp leftward shift in states like Ohio and Iowa, it’s folly to think Minnesota is in play. Biden leads there by six points in today’s RCP average. If Trump ends up losing Florida by a whisker, there’ll be a lot of second-guessing about him trying to play offense in MN.
A friend involved in politics emailed me about the claim that Trump is dropping ads in Florida to say that he spoke to a Republican who’s tapped in and that person has heard from the campaign that Florida looks good for them per their internal polling. On the other hand, if you believe HuffPost’s sources, the Trump campaign actually isn’t doing much polling there at all:
One top Republican close to Trump, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the campaign feels confident it has not lost that much ground with older voters and predicted a 3-point win next week. “We’re in really good shape in Florida,” he said, but then added that knowing this with any certainty was difficult because the campaign is not conducting a tracking poll in a number of key states. “Florida, and we’re not polling. It’s weird.”
Rick Wilson of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, who’s been a consultant in Florida for years, told HuffPost that “A lot of their polling contractors stopped getting paid in September, so they’re not doing work. They’re broke. They’re largely flying blind right now.” That may or may not be true, but it fits the picture of an operation that’s scrounging for cash to keep up amid Biden’s onslaught.
Which brings us back to a question that’s been asked repeatedly since the Trump campaign’s financial trouble became public knowledge. Why isn’t President Moneybags reaching into his wallet to help Make America Great Again, Again?
Trying to imagine the pitch to GOP megadonors to bail out Florida when the president's a billionaire, lives in the state, and has spent $8,000 on his campaign so far — Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) October 27, 2020
FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average has Biden ahead in Florida by two points today, 48.8 percent to 46.8 percent. If Trump falls just short, his reluctance to self-fund is another topic he’ll be pressed on in the aftermath. A man with deep pockets who claims that the fate of America is on the ballot next week isn’t acting like it when it comes to his own checkbook.
Here’s the state of play in Florida’s early voting, by the way:
Tweet 1 of 4
FL GOP had a big day in the Early Vote & Absentee Ballot wars when they reduced the Democrats' margin by the biggest amount yet, 52,373 Ds still have a huge & historic margin as of this am's report: 302,282 Sat. story told you it was coming
https://t.co/dIoczwDG7u pic.twitter.com/rbMzZjo2ia — Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) October 27, 2020
Election Day turnout is expected to be much more red than blue, though. Stay tuned.
I’ll leave you with this, in which the Trump campaign selectively cut a clip of Biden to make him sound demented even though he was quoting the Pope.


hotair--2020-10-27--White House: Let's face it, Pelosi won't cut a deal before the election

Let ’ s face it , we knew that at least a month ago .
That may not be all on Nancy Pelosi , though , because Mitch McConnell has all but declared any deal on the scale discussed by Pelosi , Donald Trump , and Steve Mnuchin as DOA in the Senate .
For some reason , however , Pelosi hasn ’ t thought to call Trump ’ s bluff on being able to out-wrangle McConnell on a floor vote by taking the $ 1.8 trillion deal apparently on the table and declaring victory .
Can ’ t anyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can , at least in terms of the PR : The White House on Tuesday tamped down expectations for a major coronavirus relief package to be agreed upon by the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election , saying House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi was seeking too much .
White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said the proposal from Pelosi ’ s Democrats included stimulus checks for immigrants who are in the United States illegally .
“ The chances are slim when you have someone like Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put forward and it still stands today , ” McEnany said on Fox Business Network .
“ This is not serious if we ’ re providing stimulus relief for the American people , it should be just that , for American people , for U.S. citizens , ” McEnany added .
“ So it ’ s on her.
” Thanks to Pelosi , the White House and Trump don ’ t have to get tested on their pledge to deliver enough Senate Republicans to pass the bill .
In that sense , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ insisting , it is on her .
Had she settled for the half-loaf , as a number of House Democrats in vulnerable districts wanted ahead of the election , it would have been on McConnell .
And now it ’ s too late .
Without any hint of progress on those negotiations , McConnell adjourned the Senate last night until the Monday after the election .
Retiring Sen .
Rob Portman ( R-OH ) put the blame on Pelosi for the lack of action : Senators prepared to leave town Monday night for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of passing new COVID-19 aid legislation before the Nov. 3 elections .
Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke by phone for 52 minutes on Monday in what has become a near-daily attempt to narrow differences on pandemic relief between Democrats and the Trump administration .
But there was no indication of any major progress .
… GOP senators have balked at any deal that could cost roughly $ 2 trillion , as contemplated by Democrats and the Trump administration .
As if to underscore their resistance , they pushed their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which Democrats blocked last week .
“ Nancy Pelosi refuses to move off the mark because she ’ s not interested in compromise right now , ” Sen .
Rob Portman , R-Ohio , told Fox Business Network .
“ So after the election , I think we ’ re going to get together and figure this out .
And we should , because there ’ s actually some things we can do to help — both to deal with the virus , but also to deal with the economic realities.
” Fair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate Republicans must be looking at the rise in cases and hospitalizations with some concern .
Governors — even those not named Cuomo — will likely have to start tightening restrictions on in-person commerce again , with more risk to the economy .
That means aid will become even more necessary on a larger scale , even though the economic indicators are still blinking green at the moment .
Today ’ s durable-goods report for September was better than one might hope , and a significant improvement over August ’ s : The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : That ’ s a big jump in capital investment , an indication that businesses are confident about something .
That took place in a month where further aid was clearly stalled too .
That wasn ’ t in anticipation of an influx of stimulus cash , which has been cut off since the end of July .
These economic metrics strengthen Republican arguments against a larger stimulus , but that ’ s from four weeks ago , too .
The rising cases and hospitalizations will change that calculus — plus there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ millions of people still out of work from the first round of shutdowns : Millions of jobless Americans are poised to lose their unemployment benefits at the end of the year without action from Congress to extend temporary aid programs .
A federal program paying benefits to gig workers and others ( such as the self-employed , freelancers , contractors and part-timers ) is poised to lapse after December , as is one paying extra relief to workers who ’ ve exhausted their standard state benefit .
In all , there are about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — more than half of the roughly 23 million people receiving unemployment benefits , according to Labor Department data .
“ There ’ s going to be an enormous cliff at the end of the year , ” Stephen Wandner , a labor economist and senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance , said of the expiring benefits .
The elections themselves will also change the calculus on Phase 4 , but that will weigh heavily , too .
It ’ s almost certain that we will suddenly see a big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2 trillion range passed in the second week of November , and all of the posturing will likely dissipate with it .
It ’ s still a mystery why neither side seemed interested in acting in their own best interests , despite the best efforts of the White House to slap some sense into them .

Let’s face it, we knew that at least a month ago. That may not be all on Nancy Pelosi, though, because Mitch McConnell has all but declared any deal on the scale discussed by Pelosi, Donald Trump, and Steve Mnuchin as DOA in the Senate. For some reason, however, Pelosi hasn’t thought to call Trump’s bluff on being able to out-wrangle McConnell on a floor vote by taking the $1.8 trillion deal apparently on the table and declaring victory.
Can’t anyone here play this game? Kayleigh McEnany can, at least in terms of the PR:
The White House on Tuesday tamped down expectations for a major coronavirus relief package to be agreed upon by the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election, saying House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi was seeking too much. White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said the proposal from Pelosi’s Democrats included stimulus checks for immigrants who are in the United States illegally. “The chances are slim when you have someone like Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House, when you look at the proposal they put forward and it still stands today,” McEnany said on Fox Business Network. “This is not serious if we’re providing stimulus relief for the American people, it should be just that, for American people, for U.S. citizens,” McEnany added. “So it’s on her.”
Thanks to Pelosi, the White House and Trump don’t have to get tested on their pledge to deliver enough Senate Republicans to pass the bill. In that sense, and in the terms on which Pelosi keeps insisting, it is on her. Had she settled for the half-loaf, as a number of House Democrats in vulnerable districts wanted ahead of the election, it would have been on McConnell.
And now it’s too late. Without any hint of progress on those negotiations, McConnell adjourned the Senate last night until the Monday after the election. Retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) put the blame on Pelosi for the lack of action:
Senators prepared to leave town Monday night for their October recess with virtually no prospect of passing new COVID-19 aid legislation before the Nov. 3 elections. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke by phone for 52 minutes on Monday in what has become a near-daily attempt to narrow differences on pandemic relief between Democrats and the Trump administration. But there was no indication of any major progress. … GOP senators have balked at any deal that could cost roughly $2 trillion, as contemplated by Democrats and the Trump administration. As if to underscore their resistance, they pushed their own $519 billion aid bill, which Democrats blocked last week. “Nancy Pelosi refuses to move off the mark because she’s not interested in compromise right now,” Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, told Fox Business Network. “So after the election, I think we’re going to get together and figure this out. And we should, because there’s actually some things we can do to help — both to deal with the virus, but also to deal with the economic realities.”
Fair enough, although some of the escaping Senate Republicans must be looking at the rise in cases and hospitalizations with some concern. Governors — even those not named Cuomo — will likely have to start tightening restrictions on in-person commerce again, with more risk to the economy. That means aid will become even more necessary on a larger scale, even though the economic indicators are still blinking green at the moment. Today’s durable-goods report for September was better than one might hope, and a significant improvement over August’s:
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $4.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $237.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up five consecutive months, followed a 0.4 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.4 percent. Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, led the increase, $3.0 billion or 4.1 percent to $76.8 billion.
The numbers on business investment look even rosier:
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in September increased $6.6 billion or 10.4 percent to $69.7 billion. Shipments increased less than $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $70.2 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $593.5 billion. Inventories increased $0.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $193.8 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in September decreased $3.0 billion or 22.3 percent to $10.3 billion. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $12.1 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.8 billion or 1.0 percent to $179.5 billion. Inventories increased $0.3 billion or 1.2 percent to $21.5 billion.
That’s a big jump in capital investment, an indication that businesses are confident about something. That took place in a month where further aid was clearly stalled too. That wasn’t in anticipation of an influx of stimulus cash, which has been cut off since the end of July.
These economic metrics strengthen Republican arguments against a larger stimulus, but that’s from four weeks ago, too. The rising cases and hospitalizations will change that calculus — plus there’s a big cliff coming for the millions of people still out of work from the first round of shutdowns:
Millions of jobless Americans are poised to lose their unemployment benefits at the end of the year without action from Congress to extend temporary aid programs. A federal program paying benefits to gig workers and others (such as the self-employed, freelancers, contractors and part-timers) is poised to lapse after December, as is one paying extra relief to workers who’ve exhausted their standard state benefit. In all, there are about 13.5 million people in these two programs — more than half of the roughly 23 million people receiving unemployment benefits, according to Labor Department data. “There’s going to be an enormous cliff at the end of the year,” Stephen Wandner, a labor economist and senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance, said of the expiring benefits.
The elections themselves will also change the calculus on Phase 4, but that will weigh heavily, too. It’s almost certain that we will suddenly see a big push to get something in the $2 trillion range passed in the second week of November, and all of the posturing will likely dissipate with it. It’s still a mystery why neither side seemed interested in acting in their own best interests, despite the best efforts of the White House to slap some sense into them.