russia-insider--2020-05-23--German Foreign Policy Is a CIA Front, It Has Been Since WW2

Hezbollah is an organization that forms 10 % of the current Lebanese parliament and is a significant part of Lebanon ’ s governing coalition .
Because of its commitment to international justice , Hezbollah is , in fact , Lebanon ’ s most recognizable political group .
And that ’ s the point .
Hezbollah ’ s successful efforts to defend the sovereignty of Lebanon in the past decades , and the sovereignty of Syria in recent years , is a problem for that power which aims to destroy the sovereignty of both Lebanon and Syria .
However , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what then explains Berlin ’ s hostility towards Beirut ?
Germany is doing someone ’ s bidding .
Germany ’ s problem is that it ’ s foreign policy is stuck in the late 20th century .
At present , Germany ’ s political structure is stuck in post World War Two Europe .
Ever since the Nazis were defeated in 1945 , Germany has been a cutout .
To begin with , it was either a Soviet or an American cutout .
But when the Soviets had the decency to exit Germany @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remained .
As a consequence , in the 21st century German independence is still an aspiration rather than a reality .
According to Deutsche Welle ( DW ) , in 2019 there were “ roughly 38,600 ” American soldiers based in Germany .
“ This is…more military personnel than the US keeps in any other country except Japan.
” In other words , whether it likes it or not , Germany is a key part of American geopolitics .
As DW explains : “ Germany ’ s strategic importance for the US is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Command ( EUCOM ) headquarters in the southwestern city of Stuttgart , from which it serves as the coordinating structure for all American military forces across 51 primarily European countries.
” And the purpose of EUCOM ?
“ The mission of EUCOM is to protect and defend the US.. ” It ’ s purpose is not to defend the interests of Germany but the interests of the USA .
EUCOM though is only the overt dimension of US power in Germany .
As intimidating and oppressive as EUCOM is , it is less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power in Berlin and beyond .
To bend German politicians and opinion towards warmongering in west Asia requires a level of deceitfulness that is too subtle for the straightforward American war machine .
This need for sly covert action is the raison d ’ être of America ’ s Central Intelligence Agency ( CIA ) .
And Germany is as much under the control of the CIA as it is under the control of EUCOM .
The evidence is the illogical German decision to make Hezbollah illegal .
The evidence is the fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ secret service , the Bundesnachrichtendienst ( the BND ) , which reportedly has 300 bases inside and outside Germany , was a CIA creation .
This means that infamous spymasters , like Allen Dulles ( CIA/Nazi sympathizer ) and Reinhard Gehlen ( Nazi/CIA ) , developed a covert system within Germany in the late 1940s and 1950s – a system that continues to function surreptitiously today .
Recent evidence of this insidious CIA activity in Germany includes the US bugging of Germany ’ s prime minister , Angela Merkel ( revealed in 2013 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Swiss front company ( Crypto AG ) to spy on world governments ( revealed in 2020 ) ; and the manipulation of German media , as revealed in the book Presstitutes Embedded in the Pay of the CIA ( 2019 ) , by Udo Ulfkoette .
All of which confirms the claims made by CIA whistleblower Philip Agee in the 1970s .
For example , in a 1976 interview with the German magazine Informations Dienst he stated : “ Since World War II , the aim of US foreign policy has been to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under the leadership of the USA .
CIA activities are directed toward achieving this goal….Left opposition movements had to be discredited and destroyed….After World War II , West Germany was a crucial area .
In order to secure US interests there , the CIA supported not only the CDU ( Christian Democratic Union ) but also the SPD ( Social Democratic Union ) and the trade unions .
The CIA wanted the influence of the two major political parties to be strong enough to shut out and hold down any left opposition…..Most CIA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s propaganda as if it were the journalist ’ s own work….
” And how does Hezbollah fit into this CIA / German matrix ?
Its an official US enemy .
And so , ipso facto , its an official German “ enemy ” .
As a key part of the “ axis of resistance ” ( Lebanon , Syria and Iran ) that ’ s fighting US imperialism in west Asia , Hezbollah has been in the crosshairs of Washington DC for sometime .
Hence the March 2019 Aljazeera headline : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Choose Hezbollah or Independence ” .
A headline which can also be read : “ US Tells Germany to Criminalize Hezbollah ” .
The big geopolitical picture is , of course , the grand chessboard that stretches across the Eurasian landmass .
On the western edge of this “ world island ” the US is anchored in Germany .
And on the eastern side the US is anchored in Japan .
The aim of US imperialism is to control or contain everything in between – primarily Russia and China .
And in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ containment , the oil fields and pipelines in west Asia ( the eastern Mediterranean ) are fundamental .
Germany ’ s decision to criminalize Hezbollah is a part this great US “ game ” .
As a key American base on the Eurasian landmass , the “ mighty “ Germany is nothing but a pawn in the hands the US .
This “ German decision ” , therefore , is in reality an American decision – a decision managed by America ’ s covert warriors : the CIA .
The problem for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the “ game ” is now so obvious that whatever decision is made lacks power and meaning .

Is it really in Germany’s interest to destabilize a region that has already been crippled by multiple wars? On the surface Germany doesn’t appear to have a stake in the politics of Lebanon. Indeed, from whatever angle the situation is viewed from, Germany qua Germany doesn’t have a meaningful stake in Lebanon. Yet Berlin is assaulting the sovereignty of this small Mediterranean nation that means no harm.
Hezbollah is an organization that forms 10% of the current Lebanese parliament and is a significant part of Lebanon’s governing coalition. Because of its commitment to international justice, Hezbollah is, in fact, Lebanon’s most recognizable political group. And that’s the point. Hezbollah’s successful efforts to defend the sovereignty of Lebanon in the past decades, and the sovereignty of Syria in recent years, is a problem for that power which aims to destroy the sovereignty of both Lebanon and Syria. However, that power isn’t Germany, so what then explains Berlin’s hostility towards Beirut?
Germany is doing someone’s bidding. Germany’s problem is that it’s foreign policy is stuck in the late 20th century. At present, Germany’s political structure is stuck in post World War Two Europe. Ever since the Nazis were defeated in 1945, Germany has been a cutout. To begin with, it was either a Soviet or an American cutout. But when the Soviets had the decency to exit Germany in “1989”, the Americans remained. As a consequence, in the 21st century German independence is still an aspiration rather than a reality.
According to Deutsche Welle (DW), in 2019 there were “roughly 38,600” American soldiers based in Germany. “This is…more military personnel than the US keeps in any other country except Japan.” In other words, whether it likes it or not, Germany is a key part of American geopolitics. As DW explains:
“Germany’s strategic importance for the US is reflected by the location of US European Command (EUCOM) headquarters in the southwestern city of Stuttgart, from which it serves as the coordinating structure for all American military forces across 51 primarily European countries.”
Spying in the German Banana Republic
And the purpose of EUCOM? “The mission of EUCOM is to protect and defend the US..” It’s purpose is not to defend the interests of Germany but the interests of the USA.
EUCOM though is only the overt dimension of US power in Germany. As intimidating and oppressive as EUCOM is, it is less sinister than the covert dimension of US power in Berlin and beyond. To bend German politicians and opinion towards warmongering in west Asia requires a level of deceitfulness that is too subtle for the straightforward American war machine. This need for sly covert action is the raison d’être of America’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). And Germany is as much under the control of the CIA as it is under the control of EUCOM. The evidence is the illogical German decision to make Hezbollah illegal.
The evidence is the fact that Germany’s “foreign” secret service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (the BND), which reportedly has 300 bases inside and outside Germany, was a CIA creation. This means that infamous spymasters, like Allen Dulles (CIA/Nazi sympathizer) and Reinhard Gehlen (Nazi/CIA), developed a covert system within Germany in the late 1940s and 1950s – a system that continues to function surreptitiously today.
Recent evidence of this insidious CIA activity in Germany includes the US bugging of Germany’s prime minister, Angela Merkel (revealed in 2013); the US/German creation of a Swiss front company (Crypto AG) to spy on world governments (revealed in 2020); and the manipulation of German media, as revealed in the book Presstitutes Embedded in the Pay of the CIA (2019), by Udo Ulfkoette. All of which confirms the claims made by CIA whistleblower Philip Agee in the 1970s. For example, in a 1976 interview with the German magazine Informations Dienst he stated:
“Since World War II, the aim of US foreign policy has been to guarantee the coherence of the western world under the leadership of the USA. CIA activities are directed toward achieving this goal….Left opposition movements had to be discredited and destroyed….After World War II, West Germany was a crucial area. In order to secure US interests there, the CIA supported not only the CDU (Christian Democratic Union) but also the SPD (Social Democratic Union) and the trade unions. The CIA wanted the influence of the two major political parties to be strong enough to shut out and hold down any left opposition…..Most CIA stations pay journalists to publish the CIA’s propaganda as if it were the journalist’s own work….”
And how does Hezbollah fit into this CIA / German matrix? Its an official US enemy. And so, ipso facto, its an official German “enemy”. As a key part of the “axis of resistance” (Lebanon, Syria and Iran) that’s fighting US imperialism in west Asia, Hezbollah has been in the crosshairs of Washington DC for sometime. Hence the March 2019 Aljazeera headline: “[US] Tells Lebanon to Choose Hezbollah or Independence”. A headline which can also be read: “US Tells Germany to Criminalize Hezbollah”.
The big geopolitical picture is, of course, the grand chessboard that stretches across the Eurasian landmass. On the western edge of this “world island” the US is anchored in Germany. And on the eastern side the US is anchored in Japan. The aim of US imperialism is to control or contain everything in between – primarily Russia and China. And in this US “game” of control and containment, the oil fields and pipelines in west Asia (the eastern Mediterranean) are fundamental.
Germany’s decision to criminalize Hezbollah is a part this great US “game”. As a key American base on the Eurasian landmass, the “mighty“ Germany is nothing but a pawn in the hands the US. This “German decision”, therefore, is in reality an American decision – a decision managed by America’s covert warriors: the CIA. The problem for the USA and Germany, however, is that the “game” is now so obvious that whatever decision is made lacks power and meaning.
*
Aidan O’Brien is a hospital worker, Dublin, Ireland.


russia-insider--2020-05-23--America's Political Prisoners - Railroaded by a Corrupt FBI Serving Jewish Power - a List

There is rising conscious at the abusive and corrupt behavior of the FBI due to its treatment of members of Donald Trump 's 2016 campaign .
Figures like Michael Flynn , Roger Stone , Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen were all entrapped in a conspiracy by federal agents seeking to overthrow the duly elected president of the United States .
The saga has led to calls in conservative publications to break up the FBI and investigate the extent of their abuses against Americans whose political views they do not approve of .
Fortunately for Flynn , Cohen , and likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ redress .
The Department of Justice 's decision to drop the Flynn case is welcome .
Michael Cohen and Manafort have been released from prison and will be spending the rest of their sentences under house arrest .
Roger Stone , while still battling in court , will likely figure a way out .
But not all people being railroaded and tortured in solitary confinement by the FBI can count the president of the United States as a personal friend .
Below is a list of American political prisoners subjected to similar treatment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up to date addresses for writing them .
Jacob Scott Goodwin attended the 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville , Virginia .
Goodwin and other men had been expelled from Lee Park and obeyed the Charlottesville police 's state of emergency order .
He was returning to his car in a parking lot , but was followed by a gang of armed blacks led by Harris .
Harris was photographed carrying a weapon shortly before the brawl , which he then used to begin attacking people , including beating an elderly person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ground .
The media portrayed the melee as a random racially motivated attack , and in spite of all the exculpatory evidence , Goodwin was sentenced in 2018 to a shocking 8 year sentence .
Borden and Ramos were also convicted for defending themselves against Deandre Harris and his gang .
Borden was sentenced to 4 years in prison , while Ramos , who notably only threw a single punch at Harris , was sentenced to 6 years .
Richard Wilson Preston also attended the 2017 Unite the Right march .
Preston @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1,000 feet of a school -- a procedural crime when looking at the context .
A video of the incident shows clearly what happened .
After the state of emergency was announced , nationalist demonstrators began to leave the park .
A black man named Corey Long was filmed waiting for the marchers at the exit with a flamethrower , which Preston then responded to by firing a warning shot to scare him away , saving countless young men from being maimed or killed .
Preston , faced with a possible sentence of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and was sentenced to 8 years instead .
Benjamin Drake Daley was a small business owner in California who attended the 2017 Unite the Right rally .
Federal agents raided his home in 2018 and slapped him and his martial arts club , the Rise Above Movement , with rarely used `` conspiracy to riot '' charges , based largely on accusations from `` antifa '' blogs and a documentary by Wall Street funded firm ProPublica .
One piece of evidence used by federal prosecutors to make their case was the supposed `` @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the incident shows Don Gathers attacking Daley , who used self-defense in response .
This was of no consequence to politically motivated prosecutor Thomas Cullen .
Members of RAM prosecuted under similar `` rioting '' charges in California were released by Judge Cormac Carney , who ruled that the statutes were unconstitutional , Nevertheless , Daley was sentenced to 37 months in prison by a Virginia court .
Michael Miselis was a UCLA doctoral student in aerospace engineering who also attended the 2017 Unite the Right Rally .
His dreams and aspirations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when federal agents stormed his home .
Miselis was charged alongside Daley under the same statutes ruled unconstitutional in California .
He was sentenced to 27 months in prison , despite having no criminal record .
Thomas Gillen was another accused member of RAM , prosecuted for the same unconstitutional `` crimes '' as Miselis and Daley by the FBI .
He is currently serving his 33 month sentence .
Joffre Cross III , a Texan and a nationalist , was swarmed by FBI agents for two counts of being a felon in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kevlar vest .
Cross was previously convicted for an alleged illegal sale of body armor in 2007 .
The FBI used video of Cross allegedly firing a rifle at a gun range as their evidence .
The FBI found Cross ' large collection of World War II memorabilia and posed it for the media to make it look like they had arrested a would-be `` white supremacist terrorist . ''
Cross , who does not have the money to fight in a federal case , was forced to plead guilty .
He will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this link , as we will continue to update this list with the most current information for writing these men .

There is rising conscious at the abusive and corrupt behavior of the FBI due to its treatment of members of Donald Trump's 2016 campaign.
Figures like Michael Flynn, Roger Stone, Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen were all entrapped in a conspiracy by federal agents seeking to overthrow the duly elected president of the United States. The saga has led to calls in conservative publications to break up the FBI and investigate the extent of their abuses against Americans whose political views they do not approve of.
Fortunately for Flynn, Cohen, and likely Stone, they are now being provided redress. The Department of Justice's decision to drop the Flynn case is welcome. Michael Cohen and Manafort have been released from prison and will be spending the rest of their sentences under house arrest. Roger Stone, while still battling in court, will likely figure a way out.
But not all people being railroaded and tortured in solitary confinement by the FBI can count the president of the United States as a personal friend.
Below is a list of American political prisoners subjected to similar treatment, with background information and their most up to date addresses for writing them.
1) Jacob Scott Goodwin - 1931215
Augusta correctional center
1821 Estaline Vallet Rd, Craigsville, VA, 24430
Jacob Scott Goodwin attended the 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia.
Goodwin and other men had been expelled from Lee Park and obeyed the Charlottesville police's state of emergency order. He was returning to his car in a parking lot, but was followed by a gang of armed blacks led by Harris. Harris was photographed carrying a weapon shortly before the brawl, which he then used to begin attacking people, including beating an elderly person over the head until he fell to the ground.
The media portrayed the melee as a random racially motivated attack, and in spite of all the exculpatory evidence, Goodwin was sentenced in 2018 to a shocking 8 year sentence.
2) Daniel Patrick Borden - 1920347
Dillwyn Correctional Center
1522 Prison Rd, Dillwyn, VA, 23936
3) Alex Michael Ramos - 1917415
Greensville Correctional Center
901 Corrections Way, Jarratt, VA, 23870
Borden and Ramos were also convicted for defending themselves against Deandre Harris and his gang. Borden was sentenced to 4 years in prison, while Ramos, who notably only threw a single punch at Harris, was sentenced to 6 years.
4) Richard Wilson Preston - 1916593
Coffeewood Correctional Center
12352 Coffeewood Dr, Mitchells, VA, 22729
Richard Wilson Preston also attended the 2017 Unite the Right march. Preston was convicted of discharging a firearm within 1,000 feet of a school -- a procedural crime when looking at the context.
A video of the incident shows clearly what happened. After the state of emergency was announced, nationalist demonstrators began to leave the park.
A black man named Corey Long was filmed waiting for the marchers at the exit with a flamethrower, which Preston then responded to by firing a warning shot to scare him away, saving countless young men from being maimed or killed. Preston, faced with a possible sentence of 10 years, pleaded to no contest and was sentenced to 8 years instead.
5) Benjamin Drake Daley - 77036-112
FCI Sheridan
Federal Correctional Institution
P.O. Box 5000
Sheridan, OR, 97378
Benjamin Drake Daley was a small business owner in California who attended the 2017 Unite the Right rally. Federal agents raided his home in 2018 and slapped him and his martial arts club, the Rise Above Movement, with rarely used "conspiracy to riot" charges, based largely on accusations from "antifa" blogs and a documentary by Wall Street funded firm ProPublica.
One piece of evidence used by federal prosecutors to make their case was the supposed "assault" of Don Gathers. Footage from the incident shows Don Gathers attacking Daley, who used self-defense in response. This was of no consequence to politically motivated prosecutor Thomas Cullen.
Members of RAM prosecuted under similar "rioting" charges in California were released by Judge Cormac Carney, who ruled that the statutes were unconstitutional, Nevertheless, Daley was sentenced to 37 months in prison by a Virginia court.
6) Michael Paul Miselis - 77038-112
FCI Herlong
Federal Correctional Institution
P.O. Box 800
Herlong, CA, 96113
Michael Miselis was a UCLA doctoral student in aerospace engineering who also attended the 2017 Unite the Right Rally. His dreams and aspirations as a Northrop Grumman engineer were dashed when federal agents stormed his home.
Miselis was charged alongside Daley under the same statutes ruled unconstitutional in California. He was sentenced to 27 months in prison, despite having no criminal record.
7) Thomas Walter Gillen 77035-112
FCI Manchester
Federal Correctional Institution
P.O. Box 4000
Manchester, KY, 40962
Thomas Gillen was another accused member of RAM, prosecuted for the same unconstitutional "crimes" as Miselis and Daley by the FBI. He is currently serving his 33 month sentence.
8) Joffre Cross III - 023211057
Geo Joe Corley
500 Hilbig Rd
Conroe, TX 77301
Joffre Cross III, a Texan and a nationalist, was swarmed by FBI agents for two counts of being a felon in possession of a firearm and possessing a kevlar vest. Cross was previously convicted for an alleged illegal sale of body armor in 2007.
The FBI used video of Cross allegedly firing a rifle at a gun range as their evidence. The FBI found Cross' large collection of World War II memorabilia and posed it for the media to make it look like they had arrested a would-be "white supremacist terrorist."
Cross, who does not have the money to fight in a federal case, was forced to plead guilty. He will be sentenced on May 27th.
Bookmark this link, as we will continue to update this list with the most current information for writing these men.


russia-insider--2020-05-23--The European Country of Belarus Never Locked-Down, and COVID Infections and Deaths Have Been Tiny

Belarus population : 9.5 million .
Belarus deaths of people so far who had tested positive for Covid-19 ( so that ’ s deaths with Covid , not even of ) : 185 Other 2020 causes of deaths : In January-March 2020 , a total of 18,500 people died of circulatory diseases , almost 5,000 people – of cancer .
In January-March 2020 a total of 254 people died of pneumonia .
“ We have a drop [ in flu deaths ] by almost 9 % .
This is currently our number one issue amid the virus outbreak , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state added that from 1 January to 5 April 2020 a total of 860 people died in Belarus due to external reasons , 15 people down from 2019 .
“ I will reiterate that flu deaths stood at 254 , ” Aleksandr Lukashenko said .
The head of state said that about 400 people of the above-mentioned number died as a result of suicides , 85 as a result of murders , 206 people died in fires and 107 in road accidents .
Clearly Belarus should not only immediately go into a Covid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ roads .
Belarus has performed 400,000 PCR tests so far .
It is number 35 in tests per capita , slightly ahead of Switzerland , Norway , USA , and Canada .
It is not far behind Russia at 24 which has performed about 25 % more tests per capita .

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russia-insider--2020-05-25--Hungary Says It Will Defend Its Borders and Keep Border Fence Despite EU Court Ruling

The Hungarian Defense Ministry said both the armed forces and Hungarian government would do all they could to defend the country 's border and maintain its border fence despite a new ruling from the European Court of Justice that Hungary illegally detained asylum seekers in transit zones .
The statement from Hungary comes at a time when the vital Western Balkans route has seen a sharp increase in crossing from illegal migrants .
Despite a sharp fall in April due to the border closures prompted by the coronavirus pandemic , illegal border crossings in the Western Balkans rose by 60 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the year compared with the same period of 2019 , the European Border and Coast Guard Agency Frontex said in its April migration update .
`` There were fewer than 100 detections of illegal border crossings recorded on this route in April , down 94 % from the previous month .
However , in the first four months , the number of illegal border crossings increased by 60 % from the same period of last year to nearly 6,000 , '' the Frontex report wrote .
Hungarian State Secretary of the Defense Ministry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Röszke border crossing with Serbia that with the national lockdowns coming to an end , Hungary will again face increased pressure from illegal immigrants .
He was speaking at the transit zone which served as the focus of the European Court of Justice ( ECJ ) 's ruling last week that Hungary illegally held asylum seekers there .
He reiterated the Hungarian position that the ruling intends to force Hungary to stop defending its border with a fence and allow immigrants into the country.He said that the country would do all its power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Fidesz-KDNP parliamentary majority and the government will do everything in its power to maintain the [ border ] fence , live military and police patrols and keep the transit zones operational , '' Németh said .
In its update of the weekend 's events , Hungarian police said officers apprehended 151 illegal immigrants and transported them back to the countries they came from as well as further 37 that have been prevented from crossing the Serbian border into Hungary .
Just last week , Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó warned of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ videoconference meeting with 14 EU foreign ministers .

The Hungarian Defense Ministry said both the armed forces and Hungarian government would do all they could to defend the country's border and maintain its border fence despite a new ruling from the European Court of Justice that Hungary illegally detained asylum seekers in transit zones.
The statement from Hungary comes at a time when the vital Western Balkans route has seen a sharp increase in crossing from illegal migrants. Despite a sharp fall in April due to the border closures prompted by the coronavirus pandemic, illegal border crossings in the Western Balkans rose by 60 percent in the first four months of the year compared with the same period of 2019, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency Frontex said in its April migration update.
"There were fewer than 100 detections of illegal border crossings recorded on this route in April, down 94% from the previous month. However, in the first four months, the number of illegal border crossings increased by 60% from the same period of last year to nearly 6,000," the Frontex report wrote.
Frontex April migration update. Frontex
Hungarian State Secretary of the Defense Ministry Szilárd Németh said on Sunday at the Röszke border crossing with Serbia that with the national lockdowns coming to an end, Hungary will again face increased pressure from illegal immigrants. He was speaking at the transit zone which served as the focus of the European Court of Justice (ECJ)'s ruling last week that Hungary illegally held asylum seekers there.
He reiterated the Hungarian position that the ruling intends to force Hungary to stop defending its border with a fence and allow immigrants into the country.He said that the country would do all its power to continue defending its borders.
"The Fidesz-KDNP parliamentary majority and the government will do everything in its power to maintain the [border] fence, live military and police patrols and keep the transit zones operational," Németh said.
In its update of the weekend's events, Hungarian police said officers apprehended 151 illegal immigrants and transported them back to the countries they came from as well as further 37 that have been prevented from crossing the Serbian border into Hungary.
Just last week, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó warned of a new migration wave threatening Europe in a videoconference meeting with 14 EU foreign ministers.


russia-insider--2020-05-25--As Nationalists Surge, German Security Agencies, Government, Political Parties, Plot Against Them

GERMANY 'S AfD PARTY VOTED TO EXPEL THEIR BRANDENBURG STATE LEADER Friday over his past connections with an alleged “ neo-nazi ” youth movement , despite Andreas Kalbitz ' denial that he was ever a member .
The vote was close : 7-5 with one abstention .
The current co-leaders of the AfD are Joerg Meuthen and Tino Chrupalla .
Other top national leaders include Beatrix von Storch , Alice Weidel , Alexander Gauland and Stephan Brandner .
Gauland , age 79 , retired from the leadership position last year , but is still Federal Parliamentary Leader along with Weidel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ close ally to Bjoern Hoecke , AfD state leader in Thuringia .
Both are considered influential figures in the party and credited with building the greater popularity the AfD enjoys in the eastern part of Germany .
They are associated with a more revisionist interpretation of Germany 's war-time history ; in 2007 ( 13 years ago ) Kalbitz was photographed at an event hosted by the HDJ ( Heimattreuen Deutschen Jugend ) , an alleged neo-Nazi youth movement that has since been banned .
It was legal at the time .
Kalbitz @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did n't play a part , although it was possible his name might be found on one of their old lists .
The AfD has come under growing scrutiny from Germany ’ s domestic intelligence agency in direct proportion to its growing success in gaining parliamentary seats in state and federal elections .
The other parties , all to the left of the AfD , do everything in their power to block , mock and conspire against the most successful nationalist party in Germany .
The political parties and the chancellor 's office @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In response , the AfD national board has sought to distance itself from 'extremists ' in its membership , and instituted rules that no former member of a “ neo-nazi ” youth group can join the AfD .
The board rejected Kalbitz ' claim that he was never a member of the HDJ .
Kalbitz has said he will fight the decision and `` exhaust all legal options '' to overrule his expulsion .
Alexander Gauland told public broadcaster ZDF that the decision was “ wrong and very dangerous for the party.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ they will lose votes in the east thereby , without gaining any in the west , and discourage and disappoint an important segment of the party base .
It also sets a precedent for losing an independent spirit within their membership .
Gauland , being a seasoned German politician , knows what he 's talking about .

Andreas Kalbitz since 2017 was a member of the AfD federal executive board. On February 13 it was announced that he - along with Björn Höcke and Hans-Thomas Tillschneider - had been under surveillance by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution since the beginning of the year.
GERMANY'S AfD PARTY VOTED TO EXPEL THEIR BRANDENBURG STATE LEADER Friday over his past connections with an alleged “neo-nazi” youth movement, despite Andreas Kalbitz' denial that he was ever a member. The vote was close: 7-5 with one abstention.
The current co-leaders of the AfD are Joerg Meuthen and Tino Chrupalla. Other top national leaders include Beatrix von Storch, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland and Stephan Brandner. Gauland, age 79, retired from the leadership position last year, but is still Federal Parliamentary Leader along with Weidel.
Kalbitz, 47, is a close ally to Bjoern Hoecke, AfD state leader in Thuringia. Both are considered influential figures in the party and credited with building the greater popularity the AfD enjoys in the eastern part of Germany. They are associated with a more revisionist interpretation of Germany's war-time history; in 2007 (13 years ago) Kalbitz was photographed at an event hosted by the HDJ (Heimattreuen Deutschen Jugend), an alleged neo-Nazi youth movement that has since been banned. It was legal at the time. Kalbitz claims he was never a member and didn't play a part, although it was possible his name might be found on one of their old lists.
The AfD has come under growing scrutiny from Germany’s domestic intelligence agency in direct proportion to its growing success in gaining parliamentary seats in state and federal elections. The other parties, all to the left of the AfD, do everything in their power to block, mock and conspire against the most successful nationalist party in Germany. The political parties and the chancellor's office work together in opposition to the AfD. In response, the AfD national board has sought to distance itself from 'extremists' in its membership, and instituted rules that no former member of a “neo-nazi” youth group can join the AfD. The board rejected Kalbitz' claim that he was never a member of the HDJ.
Kalbitz has said he will fight the decision and "exhaust all legal options" to overrule his expulsion.
Alexander Gauland told public broadcaster ZDF that the decision was “wrong and very dangerous for the party.” By which I think he means they will lose votes in the east thereby, without gaining any in the west, and discourage and disappoint an important segment of the party base. It also sets a precedent for losing an independent spirit within their membership. Gauland, being a seasoned German politician, knows what he's talking about.


russia-insider--2020-05-25--Russia, China Won’t Accept US Nuclear Superiority

An American OC-135B takes off at Kubinka air base in Russia to conduct aerial surveillance of Russian military assets under the Open Skies Treaty .
Geopolitics has returned with a bang although Covid-19 is still very much around and a ‘ second wave ’ is also expected .
The US President Donald Trump ’ s arms control negotiator , Special Presidential Envoy Marshall Billingslea said in an online presentation to a Washington think tank on Thursday that the United States is prepared to spend Russia and China “ into oblivion ” in order to win a new nuclear arms race @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The president has made clear that we have a tried and true practice here .
We know how to win these races and we know how to spend the adversary into oblivion .
If we have to , we will , but we sure would like to avoid it.
” We are back to the era of the Manhattan Project .
The US is rebooting its 75-year old moribund chase of nuclear superiority over its adversaries .
Its corollary also appeared on Thursday when the Trump administration announced that it will withdraw from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which was first proposed by US President Dwight Eisenhower in 1955 and was ultimately pushed forward by President George H.W .
Bush as a way of promoting stability in Europe after the Cold War ended . )
The Open Skies Treaty came into effect in 2002 with some 34 countries joining it , including Russia of course , which permits each party state to conduct unarmed reconnaissance flights over the others ’ entire territories to collect data on military forces and activities under clearly defined rules of conduct as regards the type of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ procedures and so on .
The reconnaissance / surveillance flights could often be at short-notice so that the spying missions could be mounted faster than a satellite can be moved into position .
Equally , the aircraft used are highly specialised and would have on-board observers of the states spied upon .
The treaty retained many benefits for all sides and has a wider context insofar as it was a unique confidence-building measure that doubled up as critical underpinning to arms control agreements .
Washington is resorting to the by-now-familiar plea that it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ repeated Russian violations of its terms , an argument the Trump administration had advanced last year also while scuttling the INF Treaty of 1987 , which banned all of the US and Russia ’ s land-based ballistic missiles , cruise missiles , and missile launchers with ranges of 500–1,000 kilometers ( short medium-range ) and 1,000–5,500 km ( intermediate-range ) .
The US will formally withdraw from the Open Skies accord in six months , American officials have said .
The news was confirmed by Trump himself midday , followed by a special @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kicking off a six-month clock before a formal exit occurs .
The move was not a surprise , as Washington had signalled to its European allies toward the end of last year that the US would consider withdrawing .
The Russian Foreign Ministry has reacted that it had not violated the treaty and that a US withdrawal would be “ very regrettable ” , adding that the Trump administration was working to “ derail all agreements on arms control ” .
The statement said , “ This decision is a deplorable development for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a major component of European security… US security concerns will not improve either and its international prestige is bound to be hurt .
The policy to discard the Open Skies Treaty calls into question Washington ’ s negotiability and consistency .
This is a source of serious concern even for US allies .
Russia ’ s policy on the treaty will be based on its national security interests and in close cooperation with its allies and partners.
” Indeed , this is not the first arms control agreement that the Trump administration has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Trump administration dismantling systematically the entire fabric of arms control inherited from the Cold War era .
The keystone of arms control , the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty or START agreement , expires in 2021 , and there is little enthusiasm in the US for its extension .
The US ’ dreams of attaining nuclear superiority over the former Soviet Union proved a chimera .
The Trump administration ’ s enterprise can only meet a similar fate .
In the Russian defence doctrine , global stability is riveted on strategic balance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conceding nuclear superiority to the US , no matter what it takes .
A new dimension has no appeared in the pointed reference in the Russian statement to Moscow formulating its policy apropos the US decision on the Open Skies Treaty “ in close cooperation with its allies and partners ” .
It hints at a Russian policy response in coordination with China .
If so , the Russian-Chinese entente is being elevated to a qualitatively new level .
It may be recalled that on the sidelines of an international affairs conference in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had revealed that Russia is helping China build a system to warn of ballistic missile launches .
Putin added that “ this is a very serious thing that will radically enhance China ’ s defence capability ” .
The seemingly inadvertent remark was calibrated to signal a new degree of defence cooperation between Russia and China at a juncture when Washington branded both as revisionist powers that challenged US interests globally and must be countered .
The period since October is characterised by growing belligerence in the US force projection toward Russia and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russia ’ s North-Eastern Joint Command Mikhail Bilichenko said in December that US was boosting its activity near the Chukotka Peninsula , “ increasing the grouping and practicing , among other things , the landing of an amphibious assault force.
” Earlier this month , a US Navy strike force of the 6th Fleet began operating in the Barents Sea , north of Russia , for the first time since the Cold War , further expanding its portfolio of Arctic operations by aircraft carriers and surface combatants in the past two years .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Donald Cook , USS Porter and USS Roosevelt along with fast combat support ship USNS Supply ( T-AOE-6 ) are in the Barents Sea to “ assert freedom of navigation and demonstrate seamless integration among allies , ” according to a U.S. Navy news release .
Similarly , a longer-term struggle between the US and China is at a turning point , as the former rolls out new weapons and strategy in a bid to close a wide missile gap with China .
Having got rid of the constraints under the INF Treaty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deploy long-range , ground-launched cruise missiles in the Asia-Pacific region .
according to the White House budget requests for 2021 and Congressional testimony in March of senior U.S. military commanders , the Pentagon intends to arm its Marines with versions of the Tomahawk cruise missile now carried on US warships , It is also accelerating deliveries of its first new long-range anti-ship missiles in decades .
And , in a radical shift in tactics , the U.S. moves are aimed at countering China ’ s overwhelming advantage in land-based cruise and ballistic missiles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presence off the Chinese coast .
The guided-missile destroyer USS Barry passed through the Taiwan Strait twice in April .
And the amphibious assault ship USS America last month exercised in the East China Sea and South China Sea .
A Reuters Special Report this month quoted a former senior Australian government defense official as estimating , “ The Americans are coming back strongly .
By 2024 or 2025 there is a serious risk for the PLA that their military developments will be obsolete.
” Beijing has been repeatedly warning that it will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US force projections continued .
In an article last week in the Chinese Communist Party tabloid Global Times , the daily ’ s editor-in-chief Hu Xijin wrote that China should increase its nuclear warheads to 1,000 “ in a relatively short time span ” , and to procure at least 100 DF-41 strategic missiles , the country ’ s fourth-generation and latest solid-fuelled road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile with an operation range upto 15000 kilometres .
Hu , a hugely influential opinion maker , argued that it is no more sufficient for China to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US government has identified China as its largest strategic competitor , and Washington is “ more likely to exert all its power at its disposal to suppress and intimidate China… it is highly likely that it could even take similar risks that led to the Cuban missile crisis.
” Therefore , China needs to possess such power that prevents the US politicians from “ gambling with its nuclear armament and harming China.
” In plain terms , Hu said , if the US tries to subdue China in the Taiwan Straits or the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ core interests , to considers that defeating China is necessary for perpetuation of its global hegemony , then “ China must fix its nuclear gap with the US.
” At a time when Washington sharply increases its investment in nuclear arsenal armament as the “ cornerstone of American politics and psychology , ” China needs a bigger depot of nuclear weapons .
The post-Covid era is destined to see an acceleration of strategic competition between the big powers .
The existing strategic conventions are being jettisoned and new weapons systems are being developed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ missiles .
Also undermining deterrence is Artificial Intelligence .
To tamp down the intensifying geopolitical contestations , a bolstering of the old arms control order would have helped but the opposite is happening .

An American OC-135B takes off at Kubinka air base in Russia to conduct aerial surveillance of Russian military assets under the Open Skies Treaty.
Geopolitics has returned with a bang although Covid-19 is still very much around and a ‘second wave’ is also expected. The US President Donald Trump’s arms control negotiator, Special Presidential Envoy Marshall Billingslea said in an online presentation to a Washington think tank on Thursday that the United States is prepared to spend Russia and China “into oblivion” in order to win a new nuclear arms race.
As he put it, “The president has made clear that we have a tried and true practice here. We know how to win these races and we know how to spend the adversary into oblivion. If we have to, we will, but we sure would like to avoid it.”
We are back to the era of the Manhattan Project. The US is rebooting its 75-year old moribund chase of nuclear superiority over its adversaries. Its corollary also appeared on Thursday when the Trump administration announced that it will withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty of 1992 (which was first proposed by US President Dwight Eisenhower in 1955 and was ultimately pushed forward by President George H.W. Bush as a way of promoting stability in Europe after the Cold War ended.)
The Open Skies Treaty came into effect in 2002 with some 34 countries joining it, including Russia of course, which permits each party state to conduct unarmed reconnaissance flights over the others’ entire territories to collect data on military forces and activities under clearly defined rules of conduct as regards the type of monitoring equipment to be used, the procedures and so on.
The reconnaissance / surveillance flights could often be at short-notice so that the spying missions could be mounted faster than a satellite can be moved into position. Equally, the aircraft used are highly specialised and would have on-board observers of the states spied upon. The treaty retained many benefits for all sides and has a wider context insofar as it was a unique confidence-building measure that doubled up as critical underpinning to arms control agreements.
Washington is resorting to the by-now-familiar plea that it is withdrawing from the treaty due to repeated Russian violations of its terms, an argument the Trump administration had advanced last year also while scuttling the INF Treaty of 1987, which banned all of the US and Russia’s land-based ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers with ranges of 500–1,000 kilometers (short medium-range) and 1,000–5,500 km (intermediate-range).
The US will formally withdraw from the Open Skies accord in six months, American officials have said. The news was confirmed by Trump himself midday, followed by a special briefing by the US State Department, kicking off a six-month clock before a formal exit occurs. The move was not a surprise, as Washington had signalled to its European allies toward the end of last year that the US would consider withdrawing.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has reacted that it had not violated the treaty and that a US withdrawal would be “very regrettable”, adding that the Trump administration was working to “derail all agreements on arms control”. The statement said,
“This decision is a deplorable development for European security. This US-initiated treaty is a major component of European security… US security concerns will not improve either and its international prestige is bound to be hurt. The policy to discard the Open Skies Treaty calls into question Washington’s negotiability and consistency. This is a source of serious concern even for US allies. Russia’s policy on the treaty will be based on its national security interests and in close cooperation with its allies and partners.”
Indeed, this is not the first arms control agreement that the Trump administration has abandoned. What we are witnessing is the Trump administration dismantling systematically the entire fabric of arms control inherited from the Cold War era. The keystone of arms control, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty or START agreement, expires in 2021, and there is little enthusiasm in the US for its extension.
The US’ dreams of attaining nuclear superiority over the former Soviet Union proved a chimera. The Trump administration’s enterprise can only meet a similar fate. In the Russian defence doctrine, global stability is riveted on strategic balance and there is no question of Moscow conceding nuclear superiority to the US, no matter what it takes.
A new dimension has no appeared in the pointed reference in the Russian statement to Moscow formulating its policy apropos the US decision on the Open Skies Treaty “in close cooperation with its allies and partners”. It hints at a Russian policy response in coordination with China. If so, the Russian-Chinese entente is being elevated to a qualitatively new level. It may be recalled that on the sidelines of an international affairs conference in Moscow last year, President Vladimir Putin had revealed that Russia is helping China build a system to warn of ballistic missile launches.
Putin added that “this is a very serious thing that will radically enhance China’s defence capability”. The seemingly inadvertent remark was calibrated to signal a new degree of defence cooperation between Russia and China at a juncture when Washington branded both as revisionist powers that challenged US interests globally and must be countered.
The period since October is characterised by growing belligerence in the US force projection toward Russia and China. The Chief of Staff of Russia’s North-Eastern Joint Command Mikhail Bilichenko said in December that US was boosting its activity near the Chukotka Peninsula, “increasing the grouping and practicing, among other things, the landing of an amphibious assault force.”
US Navy ships USS Porter, USS Roosevelt, USS Supply (6) in Barents Sea.
Earlier this month, a US Navy strike force of the 6th Fleet began operating in the Barents Sea, north of Russia, for the first time since the Cold War, further expanding its portfolio of Arctic operations by aircraft carriers and surface combatants in the past two years. Three Arleigh Burke-class Aegis destroyers – USS Donald Cook, USS Porter and USS Roosevelt along with fast combat support ship USNS Supply (T-AOE-6) are in the Barents Sea to “assert freedom of navigation and demonstrate seamless integration among allies,” according to a U.S. Navy news release.
Similarly, a longer-term struggle between the US and China is at a turning point, as the former rolls out new weapons and strategy in a bid to close a wide missile gap with China. Having got rid of the constraints under the INF Treaty, the Trump administration is planning to deploy long-range, ground-launched cruise missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. according to the White House budget requests for 2021 and Congressional testimony in March of senior U.S. military commanders, the Pentagon intends to arm its Marines with versions of the Tomahawk cruise missile now carried on US warships, It is also accelerating deliveries of its first new long-range anti-ship missiles in decades.
And, in a radical shift in tactics, the U.S. moves are aimed at countering China’s overwhelming advantage in land-based cruise and ballistic missiles. The US Navy maintains a powerful presence off the Chinese coast. The guided-missile destroyer USS Barry passed through the Taiwan Strait twice in April. And the amphibious assault ship USS America last month exercised in the East China Sea and South China Sea. A Reuters Special Report this month quoted a former senior Australian government defense official as estimating, “The Americans are coming back strongly. By 2024 or 2025 there is a serious risk for the PLA that their military developments will be obsolete.”
The guided-missile destroyer USS McCampbell made a transit through the Taiwan Strait, May 14, 2020
Beijing has been repeatedly warning that it will not stand by idly if the provocative US force projections continued. In an article last week in the Chinese Communist Party tabloid Global Times, the daily’s editor-in-chief Hu Xijin wrote that China should increase its nuclear warheads to 1,000 “in a relatively short time span”, and to procure at least 100 DF-41 strategic missiles, the country’s fourth-generation and latest solid-fuelled road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile with an operation range upto 15000 kilometres.
Hu, a hugely influential opinion maker, argued that it is no more sufficient for China to develop adequate nuclear deterrent, since the US government has identified China as its largest strategic competitor, and Washington is “more likely to exert all its power at its disposal to suppress and intimidate China… it is highly likely that it could even take similar risks that led to the Cuban missile crisis.” Therefore, China needs to possess such power that prevents the US politicians from “gambling with its nuclear armament and harming China.”
In plain terms, Hu said, if the US tries to subdue China in the Taiwan Straits or the South China Sea, which are its core interests, to considers that defeating China is necessary for perpetuation of its global hegemony, then “China must fix its nuclear gap with the US.” At a time when Washington sharply increases its investment in nuclear arsenal armament as the “cornerstone of American politics and psychology,” China needs a bigger depot of nuclear weapons.
The post-Covid era is destined to see an acceleration of strategic competition between the big powers. The existing strategic conventions are being jettisoned and new weapons systems are being developed, such as very high-speed, hypersonic missiles. Also undermining deterrence is Artificial Intelligence. To tamp down the intensifying geopolitical contestations, a bolstering of the old arms control order would have helped but the opposite is happening.


russia-insider--2020-05-25--The US Will Subsidize Its Loss-Making Shale Industry for Geopolitical Reasons, Will Not Allow It to

The US Will Subsidize Its Loss-Making Shale Industry for Geopolitical Reasons, Will Not Allow It to Fail

It may well be the case that the U.S. shale sector has cut over US $ 50 billion from its planned spending this year , the number of operating rigs has fallen by 40 per cent in the past four weeks , and output has fallen by nearly one million barrels per day ( bpd ) over the same period .
It is equally true , though , that what all these reports overlook is that the shale oil ( and gas ) sector is too important from a geopolitical and economic perspective to the world standing of the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and all other considerations are secondary .
In reality , the U.S. shale sector is set to emerge stronger , and earlier , than the vast majority of people think .
Ever since the 1973 Oil Crisis - when Saudi Arabia pressured OPEC members plus Egypt , Syria , and Tunisia to embargo oil exports to the U.S. ( and the U.K. , Japan , Canada , and the Netherlands ) in response to the U.S. ’ s supplying of arms to Israel in the Yom Kippur War – the U.S. had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its energy dependence on other countries .
Up to that point in October 1973 , the U.S. had largely believed that the Saudis could be trusted to adhere to the multi-generational deal that U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Saudi King at the time , Abdulaziz , had struck in 1945 , as analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil market .
Specifically , this deal made in the Great Bitter Lake segment of the Suez Canal was that the U.S. would receive all of the oil supplies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arabia had oil in place , in return for which the U.S. would guarantee the security of the ruling House of Saud .
By the end of the Saudi-supported embargo in March 1974 , the price of oil had risen from US $ 3 per barrel to nearly US $ 12 per barrel and , as the Saudi Minister of Oil and Mineral Reserves at the time , Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani ( widely credited with formulating the embargo strategy ) unequivocally highlighted at that point : the extremely negative effects on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world balance of power between the emerging nations that produced oil and the developed nations that consumed it .
When the U.S. shale industry began in earnest in 2006 with natural gas , and in 2010 with crude oil , it offered the U.S. the long-awaited opportunity to finally shrug off any shackles to Saudi that remained by dint of the Kingdom ’ s petro-power .
Within a relatively short time , the U.S. had become the number one oil producer in the world , pushing Saudi frequently into third place behind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around 13 million bpd , with around 60-70 per cent of that coming from the shale sector .
In short , it meant that the U.S. did not have to put up with any nonsense from the Saudis anymore , or from anyone else for that matter , with a new-found ability to sanction major oil producing nations that fell foul of it for one reason or another – most notably including Iran , Venezuela , and Russia – without fear of the repercussions for its own energy security .
Given this massive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blatantly obvious to anyone that the U.S. will never capitulate on its shale-centric power , or even allow it to be materially damaged .
Even more immediate domestic political reasons militate into shale continuing to function as it was before Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ( MbS ) ignored recent historical precedent and launched the second oil price war against the U.S. shale sector in less than a decade , with the disastrous fallout for it that has resulted .
Senior U.S. politicians believe that if the Saudis are ever able to meaningfully @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( which has effectively made it the new global ‘ swing ’ producer , instead of Saudi Arabia ) , then longer-term not only would the U.S. have to toe the Saudi line on whatever hare-brained schemes MbS might dream up but also it would allow Saudi Arabia over time to manipulate prices back up to levels that would allow it to avoid the imminent bankruptcy that it faces .
At the moment , Saudi ’ s official budget breakeven price per barrel of Brent is US $ 84 ( although after the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reality nearer US $ 100 ) .
The threat of this power , and the resultant oil price levels , is intolerable to U.S. politicians , and particularly those right now whose power is up for grabs in an election year .
In this context , any sustained Brent price above US $ 70 per barrel is regarded by the current Presidential Administration as being in a pricing area where the benefits to U.S. shale producers of higher prices are outweighed by the relative damage done to the U.S. economy .
More specifically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 10 per barrel change in the price of crude oil results in a 25-30 cent change in the price of a gallon of gasoline , and for every 1 cent that the average price per gallon of gasoline rises , more than US $ 1 billion per year in consumer spending is lost .
As Bob McNally , the former energy adviser to the former President George W. Bush put it : “ Few things terrify an American president more than a spike in fuel [ gasoline ] prices.
” At least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the effect of rising gasoline prices on an already ailing U.S. economy due to the COVID-19 pandemic .
According to U.S. NBER statistics , since World War I , the sitting U.S. president has won re-election 11 times out of 11 if the U.S. economy was not in recession within 24 months ahead of an election but presidents who went into a re-election campaign with the economy in recession won only once out of seven times ( Calvin Coolidge in 1924 ) .
As it stands , according to the American Petroleum Institute @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 per cent of U.S. gross domestic product , although this has to be put in context of it being a lobby group for oil companies .
As it stands , the U.S. shale sector benefits in its trajectory of recovery from the after-effects of the previous ( 2014-2016 ) oil price war launched against it by the Saudis .
“ Prior to that , it was the consensus that the breakeven price for U.S. shale producers was around US $ 70 per barrel but this was reduced by around half or even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dittmar , a Houston-based senior M & A analyst for Enverus exclusively told OilPrice.com last week .
“ They did so mainly through the advancement of technology that enabled them to drill longer laterals , manage the fracking stages closer and maintain the fracks with higher , finer , sand to allow for increased recovery for the wells drilled , in conjunction with faster drill times , and these improvements remain in place , ” he said .
“ They gained further cost benefits from multi-pad drilling and well spacing theory and practice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ factor holding back further improvements in output and pricing were infrastructure constrains but even these have now improved , so they are in a much better position to bounce back now than they were after the 2014-2016 war , ” he added .
So quickly , in fact , that from a standing start right now some of the best operations can be back online in as little as a week , although the refinery-related lead time is slightly longer .
“ Typically , you buy the majority of your crude supplies 30-45 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refineries will start to increase their run rates and will start buying , then buyers show up to start buying the crude from the producers and then the producers turn it back on – so there will be some advanced warning but it will be very dependent on refinery runs , ” Bernadette Johnson , Enverus ’ Denver-based vice president of strategic analytics exclusively told OilPrice.com last week .
“ There are some risks associated with a shut-in , of course – such as water encroachment in the reservoir , and well bore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leave in the well will be subject to rusting , corrosion , and deterioration – and these will all have to be tested for , but within those parameters for the vast majority of the wells one week is absolutely sufficient to bring them back to full production capacity , particularly for unconventional wells , ” she said .
“ In fact , contrary to what many people think , the reservoir damage is actually fairly minimal for the most part and typically when the well has been shut-in pressure rebuilds and when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actually performs a little better for a while and then it settles back to what it was before , ” she added .
“ In terms of pricing , US $ 25-30 per barrel of WTI is enough to get the existing production back up and running , as long as operators believe prices won ’ t crash back down below US $ 20 per barrel , ” she underlined .
Fears as well of permanently losing the crews look as overblown this time as they were last time : “ The idea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from a sector that pays much bigger money than they can get elsewhere to go and re-train as coders or something is just not true and didn ’ t play out last time either , ” said Dittmar .
“ In sum what we have seen is just another phase of the Business Cycle , with the first phase marked by the rush for volume and the second phase marked by some demand for capital repayment from Wall Street in a broadly lower price environment after 2016 , ” said Dittmar .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ phase that will be marked by more M & A activity , particularly by the acquisition of smaller shale operations by bigger firms , probably with a heavy equity-funded element , given that the stocks of the bigger oil firms have started to rebound whilst the smaller firms still have very low valuations , ” he added .
“ For the big firms – particularly such as Exxon , Chevron , BP , Shell , and Total , having a good-sized shale operation is a very good fit in the overall business model @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It sits well in the short-cycle perspective so that when prices are rising they can ramp up production quickly to take advantage of that and when they are falling they can just cut capex quickly and trim back production , ” he underlined .

It may well be the case that the U.S. shale sector has cut over US$50 billion from its planned spending this year, the number of operating rigs has fallen by 40 per cent in the past four weeks, and output has fallen by nearly one million barrels per day (bpd) over the same period.
It is equally true, though, that what all these reports overlook is that the shale oil (and gas) sector is too important from a geopolitical and economic perspective to the world standing of the U.S. for it to be allowed to fail, and all other considerations are secondary. In reality, the U.S. shale sector is set to emerge stronger, and earlier, than the vast majority of people think.
Ever since the 1973 Oil Crisis - when Saudi Arabia pressured OPEC members plus Egypt, Syria, and Tunisia to embargo oil exports to the U.S. (and the U.K., Japan, Canada, and the Netherlands) in response to the U.S.’s supplying of arms to Israel in the Yom Kippur War – the U.S. had been itching for a way to end its energy dependence on other countries. Up to that point in October 1973, the U.S. had largely believed that the Saudis could be trusted to adhere to the multi-generational deal that U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Saudi King at the time, Abdulaziz, had struck in 1945, as analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil market. Specifically, this deal made in the Great Bitter Lake segment of the Suez Canal was that the U.S. would receive all of the oil supplies it needed for as long as Saudi Arabia had oil in place, in return for which the U.S. would guarantee the security of the ruling House of Saud. By the end of the Saudi-supported embargo in March 1974, the price of oil had risen from US$3 per barrel to nearly US$12 per barrel and, as the Saudi Minister of Oil and Mineral Reserves at the time, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani (widely credited with formulating the embargo strategy) unequivocally highlighted at that point: the extremely negative effects on the global economy marked a fundamental shift in the world balance of power between the emerging nations that produced oil and the developed nations that consumed it.
When the U.S. shale industry began in earnest in 2006 with natural gas, and in 2010 with crude oil, it offered the U.S. the long-awaited opportunity to finally shrug off any shackles to Saudi that remained by dint of the Kingdom’s petro-power. Within a relatively short time, the U.S. had become the number one oil producer in the world, pushing Saudi frequently into third place behind Russia, and producing an average of around 13 million bpd, with around 60-70 per cent of that coming from the shale sector. In short, it meant that the U.S. did not have to put up with any nonsense from the Saudis anymore, or from anyone else for that matter, with a new-found ability to sanction major oil producing nations that fell foul of it for one reason or another – most notably including Iran, Venezuela, and Russia – without fear of the repercussions for its own energy security.
Given this massive geopolitical reason alone, it should be blatantly obvious to anyone that the U.S. will never capitulate on its shale-centric power, or even allow it to be materially damaged. Even more immediate domestic political reasons militate into shale continuing to function as it was before Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) ignored recent historical precedent and launched the second oil price war against the U.S. shale sector in less than a decade, with the disastrous fallout for it that has resulted. Senior U.S. politicians believe that if the Saudis are ever able to meaningfully reduce the U.S.’s oil output (which has effectively made it the new global ‘swing’ producer, instead of Saudi Arabia), then longer-term not only would the U.S. have to toe the Saudi line on whatever hare-brained schemes MbS might dream up but also it would allow Saudi Arabia over time to manipulate prices back up to levels that would allow it to avoid the imminent bankruptcy that it faces. At the moment, Saudi’s official budget breakeven price per barrel of Brent is US$84 (although after the latest oil price war it is in reality nearer US$100).
The threat of this power, and the resultant oil price levels, is intolerable to U.S. politicians, and particularly those right now whose power is up for grabs in an election year. In this context, any sustained Brent price above US$70 per barrel is regarded by the current Presidential Administration as being in a pricing area where the benefits to U.S. shale producers of higher prices are outweighed by the relative damage done to the U.S. economy. More specifically, it is estimated that every US$10 per barrel change in the price of crude oil results in a 25-30 cent change in the price of a gallon of gasoline, and for every 1 cent that the average price per gallon of gasoline rises, more than US$1 billion per year in consumer spending is lost. As Bob McNally, the former energy adviser to the former President George W. Bush put it: “Few things terrify an American president more than a spike in fuel [gasoline] prices.”
At least as bad for a sitting president is the effect of rising gasoline prices on an already ailing U.S. economy due to the COVID-19 pandemic. According to U.S. NBER statistics, since World War I, the sitting U.S. president has won re-election 11 times out of 11 if the U.S. economy was not in recession within 24 months ahead of an election but presidents who went into a re-election campaign with the economy in recession won only once out of seven times (Calvin Coolidge in 1924). As it stands, according to the American Petroleum Institute, the oil sector also accounts for 10 per cent of U.S. gross domestic product, although this has to be put in context of it being a lobby group for oil companies.
As it stands, the U.S. shale sector benefits in its trajectory of recovery from the after-effects of the previous (2014-2016) oil price war launched against it by the Saudis.
“Prior to that, it was the consensus that the breakeven price for U.S. shale producers was around US$70 per barrel but this was reduced by around half or even more in some cases,” Andrew Dittmar, a Houston-based senior M&A analyst for Enverus exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “They did so mainly through the advancement of technology that enabled them to drill longer laterals, manage the fracking stages closer and maintain the fracks with higher, finer, sand to allow for increased recovery for the wells drilled, in conjunction with faster drill times, and these improvements remain in place,” he said. “They gained further cost benefits from multi-pad drilling and well spacing theory and practice, and for some time the only factor holding back further improvements in output and pricing were infrastructure constrains but even these have now improved, so they are in a much better position to bounce back now than they were after the 2014-2016 war,” he added.
So quickly, in fact, that from a standing start right now some of the best operations can be back online in as little as a week, although the refinery-related lead time is slightly longer.
“Typically, you buy the majority of your crude supplies 30-45 days out so what will happen is refineries will start to increase their run rates and will start buying, then buyers show up to start buying the crude from the producers and then the producers turn it back on – so there will be some advanced warning but it will be very dependent on refinery runs,” Bernadette Johnson, Enverus’ Denver-based vice president of strategic analytics exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “There are some risks associated with a shut-in, of course – such as water encroachment in the reservoir, and well bore or surface facility damage, everything we leave in the well will be subject to rusting, corrosion, and deterioration – and these will all have to be tested for, but within those parameters for the vast majority of the wells one week is absolutely sufficient to bring them back to full production capacity, particularly for unconventional wells,” she said.
“In fact, contrary to what many people think, the reservoir damage is actually fairly minimal for the most part and typically when the well has been shut-in pressure rebuilds and when we bring the well back online it actually performs a little better for a while and then it settles back to what it was before,” she added.
“In terms of pricing, US$25-30 per barrel of WTI is enough to get the existing production back up and running, as long as operators believe prices won’t crash back down below US$20 per barrel,” she underlined.
Fears as well of permanently losing the crews look as overblown this time as they were last time: “The idea that these crews will just stay away from a sector that pays much bigger money than they can get elsewhere to go and re-train as coders or something is just not true and didn’t play out last time either,” said Dittmar.
“In sum what we have seen is just another phase of the Business Cycle, with the first phase marked by the rush for volume and the second phase marked by some demand for capital repayment from Wall Street in a broadly lower price environment after 2016,” said Dittmar. “Now, we are entering a third phase that will be marked by more M&A activity, particularly by the acquisition of smaller shale operations by bigger firms, probably with a heavy equity-funded element, given that the stocks of the bigger oil firms have started to rebound whilst the smaller firms still have very low valuations,” he added.
“For the big firms – particularly such as Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell, and Total, having a good-sized shale operation is a very good fit in the overall business model,” he told OilPrice.com. “It sits well in the short-cycle perspective so that when prices are rising they can ramp up production quickly to take advantage of that and when they are falling they can just cut capex quickly and trim back production,” he underlined.


russia-insider--2020-05-26--In Last 3 Weeks of WW2, Against Hopeless Odds, German Troops Heroically Fought to the Death, Killing

In Last 3 Weeks of WW2, Against Hopeless Odds, German Troops Heroically Fought to the Death, Killing a Shocking 360K Russians in Defense of Berlin

75 years ago , on 16 April 1945 , at the Zeelov Heights – numerous hills near the city of Zeelov , about 90 km east of the German capital – the Berlin Offensive began .
It was the last large-scale World War II battle in Europe .
According to official figures , more than 360,000 Red Army soldiers were killed during the operation .
On Thursday , at the Zeelov Heights memorial complex , a traditional laying of wreaths will be held with the participation of Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergei Nechaev .
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doors .
`` The resistance against the Red Army on the Eastern Front , which at that time was in Central Germany , was really fierce , down to the last soldier .
The Red Army noticed this .
When they seized a small town , there were always many suicides among the civilian population ; it surprised the Russians .
But the civilian population was convinced that when the war was over , only the apocalyptic death of the German Reich could be expected , that there would be no 'later ' @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heavy losses to the very end '' , Morre said .
He added that because of such desperate resistance , the Soviet leadership turned to the Western allies , warning them against partial a surrender of the Nazi regime .
Moscow believed that `` unconditional surrender at the same time on all fronts ... was extremely important for the Red Army and for the Soviet Union '' , Morre said .
The resistance of Nazi army units – the Wehrmacht – in Berlin was fierce , but it was uneven , Jörg Morre @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city , where the ring road is located today , there were Volkssturm units – Nazi German militia units that were poorly equipped and without any ammunition or military training .
They quickly stopped fighting .
`` It was different in the city .
Starting from today 's S-Bahn-Ring , there were Wehrmacht soldiers , SS units , various armed formations ; battles were fought for each house and every street .
Even on 2 May , when the city surrendered , there were three-four places where there were still fights ; for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Zoological Garden station , in Gezundbrunnen .
The German units laid down their arms there only on the order of Helmut Weidling , the so-called military commander of Berlin .
It was fierce fighting , which was completely hopeless in military terms '' , the expert noted .
Despite the desperate situation , where `` every Wehrmacht general and officer knew that the war had been 'long lost militarily ' , Nazi Germany tried until the last day to conclude a separate peace agreement with the Western allies in order to send all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fight against the Red Army '' , Morre said .
On 6 May , Grand Admiral Karl Dönitz , the successor of Hitler , who committed suicide in a Berlin bunker on 30 April 1945 , sent Alfred Jodl , head of the German operational headquarters of the Wehrmacht Supreme Command , to the French city of Reims .
The headquarters of the Allied Forces Command was located in Reims , which was led by US Army General Dwight D. Eisenhower .
Jodl 's task was to discuss a partial surrender of Nazi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ immediately rejected it .
He repeated that the aim of the war was the unconditional surrender of the German Wehrmacht on all fronts .
With this wording , an act of surrender was signed in Reims early in the morning of 7 May ( in Soviet historiography , a preliminary act of surrender signed by Colonel-General Jodl on the German side , Major General Ivan Susloparov on the Soviet side , US Army Lieutenant General Walter Bedell Smith , chief of the main headquarters of the Allied Forces Command , on the Anglo-American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 's national defence Brigadier General Francois Sevez on the French side , as a witness ) '' , the expert said , adding that the `` necessary final part of surrender '' took place in Berlin on 8 May 1945 ( 9 May , Moscow time ) .

75 years ago, on 16 April 1945, at the Zeelov Heights – numerous hills near the city of Zeelov, about 90 km east of the German capital – the Berlin Offensive began. It was the last large-scale World War II battle in Europe. According to official figures, more than 360,000 Red Army soldiers were killed during the operation.
On Thursday, at the Zeelov Heights memorial complex, a traditional laying of wreaths will be held with the participation of Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergei Nechaev. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the event will be held behind closed doors.
"The resistance against the Red Army on the Eastern Front, which at that time was in Central Germany, was really fierce, down to the last soldier. The Red Army noticed this. When they seized a small town, there were always many suicides among the civilian population; it surprised the Russians. But the civilian population was convinced that when the war was over, only the apocalyptic death of the German Reich could be expected, that there would be no 'later'. German resistance cost the Red Army heavy losses to the very end", Morre said.
1941-1945 Great Patriotic War. © Sputnik / Ryumkin
He added that because of such desperate resistance, the Soviet leadership turned to the Western allies, warning them against partial a surrender of the Nazi regime. Moscow believed that "unconditional surrender at the same time on all fronts ... was extremely important for the Red Army and for the Soviet Union", Morre said.
Battles in Berlin
The resistance of Nazi army units – the Wehrmacht – in Berlin was fierce, but it was uneven, Jörg Morre said. On the outskirts of the city, where the ring road is located today, there were Volkssturm units – Nazi German militia units that were poorly equipped and without any ammunition or military training. They quickly stopped fighting.
"It was different in the city. Starting from today's S-Bahn-Ring, there were Wehrmacht soldiers, SS units, various armed formations; battles were fought for each house and every street. Even on 2 May, when the city surrendered, there were three-four places where there were still fights; for example, in the bunker at the Zoological Garden station, in Gezundbrunnen. The German units laid down their arms there only on the order of Helmut Weidling, the so-called military commander of Berlin. It was fierce fighting, which was completely hopeless in military terms", the expert noted.
Attempts to Surrender
Despite the desperate situation, where "every Wehrmacht general and officer knew that the war had been 'long lost militarily', Nazi Germany tried until the last day to conclude a separate peace agreement with the Western allies in order to send all available forces to the Eastern Front to fight against the Red Army", Morre said.
On 6 May, Grand Admiral Karl Dönitz, the successor of Hitler, who committed suicide in a Berlin bunker on 30 April 1945, sent Alfred Jodl, head of the German operational headquarters of the Wehrmacht Supreme Command, to the French city of Reims. The headquarters of the Allied Forces Command was located in Reims, which was led by US Army General Dwight D. Eisenhower. Jodl's task was to discuss a partial surrender of Nazi Germany with the Anglo-American allies.
Eisenhower immediately rejected it. He repeated that the aim of the war was the unconditional surrender of the German Wehrmacht on all fronts.
© SPUTNIK / TIMOTHY MILLER Soviet soldiers marching at the May 1 parade in Berlin
With this wording, an act of surrender was signed in Reims early in the morning of 7 May (in Soviet historiography, a preliminary act of surrender signed by Colonel-General Jodl on the German side, Major General Ivan Susloparov on the Soviet side, US Army Lieutenant General Walter Bedell Smith, chief of the main headquarters of the Allied Forces Command, on the Anglo-American side, and Deputy Chief of France's national defence Brigadier General Francois Sevez on the French side, as a witness)", the expert said, adding that the "necessary final part of surrender" took place in Berlin on 8 May 1945 (9 May, Moscow time).


russia-insider--2020-05-26--19th Century Wooden City Mansions 1000 Miles East of Moscow - a Video Tour (Yekaterinburg)

A resident of Yekaterinburg gives a tour of these remarkable homes , built by wealthy industrialists in Tsarist Russia .
@ @ @ @ @ of 1.5 million on the eastern side of the Ural mountains .
The 4th largest @ @ @ @ @ is considered the 'third capital ' , in terms of its economic and cultural importance @ @ @ @ @ Viacheslav , makes videos of everyday life in Russia .
They give a good sense @ @ @ @ @ things outside of Moscow , both better , and worse , than you might have @ @ @ @ @ curious , because his channel has 120,000 subscribers .