russia-insider--2020-05-07--Russia in the Year of Corona - What to Expect of the Economy

In a global comparison , Russia ’ s corona epidemic response has been very strong .
The best and most foolproof indicator is the fatality rate .
Russia has experienced the lowest Covid-19 mortality among all countries in the Northern Hemisphere , significantly lower than nearly all Western countries .
Presently the fatality rate in Russia is 10 per 1 million , compared to 684 in Belgium , 544 ( Spain ) , 483 ( UK ) , 481 ( Italy ) , 386 ( France ) , 274 ( Sweden ) and 211 ( USA ) .
Russia ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread .
The Russian healthcare system proved superior to most other countries in terms of adequate facilities , medical devices and protective gear .
Russia increased capacity nationwide by refurbishing existing hospitals and constructing 17 new ones in record time ( 4-6 weeks ) .
The country also ramped up domestic production of medical necessities , including personal protective equipment .
By May , Russia ’ s production capacity was enough to cover 100 % of domestic needs .
At the time of this writing , Russia has not yet exhausted its hospital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ epicenter in Moscow ) .
Another commendable facet of its response has been the rapid roll out of testing .
In absolute numbers , Russia ( 4.5 million tests ) is second only to the US .
In per capita terms , Russia has conducted one-third more tests than the United States and is now on par with Germany .
Most countries have almost exclusively tested only severely ill people who have been admitted to hospital .
Russia , on the other hand , is currently the global leader in contact tracing .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ people have been tested .
Two weeks ago , the Russian epidemiology authority reported that 60 % of all those who tested positive in Moscow were asymptomatic .
Later it was reported that 95 % of all those who tested positive were either asymptomatic or only with mild symptoms , similar to a common cold .
Lately , there have not been any new reports on the proportion of severely ill vs. those showing mild symptoms among people tested..
The author assumes this is due to the government ’ s efforts to motivate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during the last ten days of the lockdown , coinciding with the traditional Russian May Day and Victory Day holidays .
Due to the extraordinary warm and sunny weather , the government faces an increasing challenge to keep people at home .
However , today the Swedish government reported that a staggering 98.5 % of all infected people in their country were asymptomatic or mild .
Presumably , this would also apply to Russia .
Preliminary , the government has promised to start gradually loosen the lockdown restrictions starting from May 12 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ time .
The comparison of Russia ’ s infection with the global count would just not seem to motivate that Russia keeps the restrictions in full force anymore .
With the corona crisis taking its toll around the world , Russia ’ s economy looks relatively strong in a global comparison .
This should not come as a surprise to anybody who has been following our Awara reports on the Russian and global economies .
In a seminal report with the ominous title With Global Recession Looming , Russia Looks Strong — which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a million readers last August – we at Awara predicted the global crisis .
Everything pointed to it even before corona .
The meltdown we are seeing in some of the Western countries is entirely due to the dreadful shape of those economies , which has been becoming increasingly evident .
Only massive amounts of QE cash injections and central bank bond purchasing at zero or negative rates kept the economies superficially afloat .
In this report , we also pointed out all the relative strengths the Russian economy possessed and which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the global crisis on the Russian economy .
To quote our earlier seminal report : “ The debt saturation point has been reached , therefore this time it will be different , the central bankers have lost their magic wand and won ’ t be able to renew the debt binge and extend it with one more decade .
Instead , there will be a day of reckoning .
Governments and corporations will have to put their act together and let the market weed out the failed entities .
Those who can not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shed it .
There will be bloodbath with defaults , bankruptcies and massive unemployment .
– Perhaps a revolution here and there .
– There will be no choice , deleveraging must happen .
Now , whether this system will come crashing down or just slowly die as it trundles downhill will not matter all that much .
It will eventually die either way .
Most people would prefer the slow motion option , but only with the crash would a cure come .
Whatever , it has become increasingly difficult to stave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the financial markets would take the real economy down with them big time.
” We also reported about Russia ’ s advantage : “ The question then is , who would be left standing ?
Naturally , those who are less leveraged .
Now , scroll back to have a new look at the above charts on government and household debt .
Find the position of Russia there ?
That ’ s right .
Russia is the country with – by far – the least debt , both public and private .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ off from the Western debt orgy , even Russian corporations are shielded against a possible Western debt apocalypse .
Let ’ s look at Russia ’ s present financial health report.
” Subsequent events have proven that Awara was absolutely correct in everything referenced in that report about Russia ’ s extraordinary financial and economic We recommend all who have a stake or who want to explore the opportunities on the Russian market , to go through the solid set of arguments in this Awara report .
We then followed up on that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ called As Global Growth Stalls , The Russian Economy is Gathering Momentum .
That was just after corona had become a global scare .
In this report , we acknowledged the possibility that the corona crisis could wreak havoc in the global economy .
But allowing for this scenario , we stressed that Russia would anyway fare substantially better than most of the world , and in particular , better than most Western countries on average .
All the points made in the January economic brief still remain valid for a better understanding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt , but not in Russia Russia ’ s strengths are many .
The extraordinary low level of government ( national ) debt forms the rock solid fundament of the country ’ s economic edifice .
By the end of 2019 , Russia ’ s national debt-to-GDP was 12.9 % .
This is a fraction of the debt levels of the old developed countries of the West .
In the US , the national debt was way above 100 % by 2019 , when state and municipal debt is added to the official @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the global standards , which the US has not been following ) .
With the already announced corona bailouts and stimulus , with the shortfall of tax revenue and additional debt and a lower GDP as the base , the US debt level will shoot above the 130 % level .
Hereby , Russia , is expected to add 3 % to its national debt .
All major Western countries have at least 3 times as much debt as Russia and many – for example , Italy , France , Spain – are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US .
It is expected that most , if not all countries will follow the US lead with skyrocketing borrowings .
These different debt trajectories will only increase Russia ’ s comparative advantages .
Being in this favorable situation , Russia has ample room to dip into a budget deficit , especially after two years of solid surpluses .
Presently it is expected that Russia could manage the crisis with a mere 3.5 % budget deficit in 2020 .
That ’ s a level , which has been the norm in the West @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Following the enormous economic crisis in the US , experts are predicting a record $ 3.8 trillion budget deficit , a staggering 18.7 % of GDP .
Most European countries might not go as high as the US in jacking up the deficits , though an average of at least 10 % is to be expected .
GDP decline – far too early for definite predictions , but Russia relatively better off We think it is far too early to make any predictions on countries ’ actual GDP 2020 .
There are too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level of permanent destruction and bankruptcies caused by the corona responses across the globe ?
( Quite a lot ) .
Will the corona unemployment turn structural and long-term ?
( We think , to a big degree , yes ) .
What has been the real level of destruction of disposable income and asset values , eroding of savings ?
( Huge ) .
How long will restrictive measures stay in force ?
( At least leisure and travel , especially international will mostly remain shut until end of year ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Not , just by waving the magic wand of calling off the corona measures ) .
Will beggar-thy-neighbor currency and trade wars raise their heads ?
( Yes ) .
Will the US go out with full-blown trade war and sanctions on ?
( Looks so ) .
It is impossible to estimate the long-term economic effect of all these questions on the global economy and any given country in particular .
Therefore , we think it is best to refrain from giving numeric predictions .
We are however on much firmer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relatively to each other .
For this purpose , we may look at the GDP forecast given by the rating agency Fitch .
Fitch predicts ( April ) that Russia would incur a 3.3 % GDP cut , this while their predictions are much worse for Western countries , Fitch expecting eurozone GDP to decline by 7 % , US GDP by 5.6 % , and UK GDP by 6.3 % in 2020 .
We would in fact expect a bigger GDP decline for those countries and perhaps for Russia as well , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
When estimating the Russian GDP decline , one has to bear in mind that the fossil fuel sector makes up a much smaller portion of the GDP than commonly believed .
According to the latest figures from the World Bank , we estimate it as forming 9 % of the economic output .
Furthermore , GDP growth is calculated based on production volumes rather than prices , and the former is not expected to significantly decline .
We estimate that Brent oil would cost $ 35 per barrel by the end of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government is financially solid , but also corporations and households .
Household debt in Russia is also the lowest among major countries .
At the same time , Russians have – proportionally – much more savings than for example Americans .
Furthermore , there is no reason to expect Russian unemployment to rise beyond 9 % .
We estimate that most probably it will not exceed 7 % by year-end .
Meanwhile , unemployment already has shot up to 20 % in the US .
Russia also has in store for the hard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , hardly an option for Western countries who already are at zero or negative rates .
Already in April , the Russian central bank cut the key rate by 0.5 % to 5.5 % .
As inflation has not picked up , we see room for further rate cuts down to 4 % within the next half year .
In all the financial crises Russia has experienced since 1990 , the big problem was always the galloping inflation .
This time however , inflation didn ’ t budge beyond a small initial shock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Russia ’ s solid finances and the amazing success of its important substitution policies .
Import substitution is what Russians call the efforts to bring in manufacturing and food production onshore .
This process was intensified after the West imposed sanctions on Russia in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis .
As a result , Russia now is virtually self-sufficient in food and even exporting a surplus .
Russia has also come close to self-sufficiency in medicine .
Overall , Russia has by far the absolutely smallest share of imports relative to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So far , critics of Russia have focused on the relatively smaller level of export of manufactured goods , while they failed to realize the importance of the vastly more significant domestic autarky .
This success of domestic production is what put an end to Russia ’ s vicious inflation cycle .
Earlier , when Russia was dependent on foreign imports and energy exports , the ruble plummeted and prices shot up during a crisis .
This is not the case anymore .
This time even the sharp plunge in oil prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
There have even been speculations that Russia has not been trying especially hard to prevent the rumored tripartite oil price war between itself , Saudi Arabia and the United States .
The influential oil and energy news source Oilprice.com reported in March that Russia could well cope – thanks to its built up reserves and financial solidity – with oil prices as low as $ 25 per barrel up to 10 years from point of view of keeping the countries budget afloat and foreign reserves intact .
Meanwhile experts deemed that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Anton Siluanov , the minister of finance , estimated in late April that the money in the sovereign wealth fund will suffice to see the country through to 2024 according to the present situation assessment .
The balance should be 7 trillion rubles ( $ 90 bn ) at the end of the year .
The minister expects that the total cost of the corona response would be only 6.5 % of GDP .
( We assume , this means over next two years ) .
The main source of funding the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Although business associations and the financial press have been criticizing the government for insufficient support in response to the crisis , we think it is good that the government has been cautious in this regard .
The European governments have announced massive packages ; the ECB has opened up an unlimited tab for bond purchases ; the US government is doling out trillions ; and the Fed was at $ 6 trillion bailouts and QE last time we checked .
Russia on the contrary has not announced any blanket bailouts or QE monetary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big business has received so far is a paltry $ 10 million in tax deferments .
The government is readying a program for them .
Anything paid out however , in form of loans or other financing , will be considered case-by-case .
Most importantly , the government has announced that only companies that refrain from mass lay-offs will be eligible .
So far , there has been more direct support for SMEs , most importantly with a 50 % reduction in employer ’ s social contribution .
Direct support has also gone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , enterprises in non-food retail , restaurants , bars , leisure , sports etc .
In general , the relief provided to those is rather inadequate and unfortunately many of those companies are expected to go bankrupt .
The support to households has been twofold .
Most importantly , employers have been forced to bear the cost of the stay-home regime , as the government mandated that they have to pay full salaries during this period .
Dismissals , furloughing and reduction of pay was outlawed , although there are reports that many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ However , all such actions can be contested in court .
Russia mainly and correctly relies on market forces to take it out of the crisis .
This is only possible because Russia still being one of the few countries in the world that still runs a market economy .
Russia of all countries in the world is in the unique position to conduct a classical countercyclical fiscal and monetary policy on all fronts .
( It ’ s classical according to theory , but as far as we know , first time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ means dipping into a budget deficit in hard times after having secured surpluses when the going was good .
It means using reserves from the sovereign wealth fund , to fund public works .
It also means slashing the interest rates , when it is needed to ease monetary conditions and stimulate the economy .
Russia now the world ’ s fifth largest economy ahead of Germany With corona dominating the news , the business media entirely missed the latest IMF GDP figures for 2019 , made official on April 22 .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ passed Germany as the world ’ s fifth largest economy .
The other stunning fact was that the Chinese economy is now one-third bigger than the US .
Note also , once the UK will be deducted from the EU totals , India alone will be very close to overtake the EU in economic size .
We stress that the PPP conversion is the only sensible way to measure the relative size of countries ’ economies .
The PPP measures the real output of goods and services , whereas the nominal GDP only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to another .
We have explained the difference between PPP and nominal GDP in this article .
If anybody still wants to take comfort in the nominal figures in an attempt to cling on to a lost world , then by all means do carry on , who are we to stop you ?
Most importantly , these figures show a trend , which can not be denied .
Note , these are not adjusted for debt levels .
If we would do that – reduce the artificial GDP portion achieved through wasteful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would come out even far better .
Actually , we have earlier done such an exercise on reducing debt from countries ’ GDP and the results were shocking .
You can access that report here .
At the end , we are sure that due to the corona crisis Russia , China and India will extend their relative GDP leads .
Therefore , our advice : Go East , corporations , young and old .

Russia’s Corona Epidemic Response
In a global comparison, Russia’s corona epidemic response has been very strong. The best and most foolproof indicator is the fatality rate. Russia has experienced the lowest Covid-19 mortality among all countries in the Northern Hemisphere, significantly lower than nearly all Western countries. Presently the fatality rate in Russia is 10 per 1 million, compared to 684 in Belgium, 544 (Spain), 483 (UK), 481 (Italy), 386 (France), 274 (Sweden) and 211 (USA).
Russia’s initial decisive response helped reduce the spread. The Russian healthcare system proved superior to most other countries in terms of adequate facilities, medical devices and protective gear. Russia increased capacity nationwide by refurbishing existing hospitals and constructing 17 new ones in record time (4-6 weeks). The country also ramped up domestic production of medical necessities, including personal protective equipment. By May, Russia’s production capacity was enough to cover 100% of domestic needs. At the time of this writing, Russia has not yet exhausted its hospital capacity (even at the virus’ epicenter in Moscow).
Another commendable facet of its response has been the rapid roll out of testing. In absolute numbers, Russia (4.5 million tests) is second only to the US. In per capita terms, Russia has conducted one-third more tests than the United States and is now on par with Germany.
Most countries have almost exclusively tested only severely ill people who have been admitted to hospital. Russia, on the other hand, is currently the global leader in contact tracing. As a result, many outwardly healthy people have been tested. Two weeks ago, the Russian epidemiology authority reported that 60% of all those who tested positive in Moscow were asymptomatic. Later it was reported that 95% of all those who tested positive were either asymptomatic or only with mild symptoms, similar to a common cold. Lately, there have not been any new reports on the proportion of severely ill vs. those showing mild symptoms among people tested.. The author assumes this is due to the government’s efforts to motivate people to follow the stay-home orders strictly during the last ten days of the lockdown, coinciding with the traditional Russian May Day and Victory Day holidays. Due to the extraordinary warm and sunny weather, the government faces an increasing challenge to keep people at home. However, today the Swedish government reported that a staggering 98.5% of all infected people in their country were asymptomatic or mild. Presumably, this would also apply to Russia.
Preliminary, the government has promised to start gradually loosen the lockdown restrictions starting from May 12. Most seem to think it is about time. The comparison of Russia’s infection with the global count would just not seem to motivate that Russia keeps the restrictions in full force anymore.
Russia’s economy proves strong in a global comparison
With the corona crisis taking its toll around the world, Russia’s economy looks relatively strong in a global comparison. This should not come as a surprise to anybody who has been following our Awara reports on the Russian and global economies. In a seminal report with the ominous title With Global Recession Looming, Russia Looks Strong — which garnered across various platforms over a quarter of a million readers last August – we at Awara predicted the global crisis. Everything pointed to it even before corona. The meltdown we are seeing in some of the Western countries is entirely due to the dreadful shape of those economies, which has been becoming increasingly evident. Only massive amounts of QE cash injections and central bank bond purchasing at zero or negative rates kept the economies superficially afloat.
In this report, we also pointed out all the relative strengths the Russian economy possessed and which would help to mitigate the effects of the global crisis on the Russian economy.
To quote our earlier seminal report:
“The debt saturation point has been reached, therefore this time it will be different, the central bankers have lost their magic wand and won’t be able to renew the debt binge and extend it with one more decade. Instead, there will be a day of reckoning. Governments and corporations will have to put their act together and let the market weed out the failed entities. Those who cannot carry the debt, will have to shed it. There will be bloodbath with defaults, bankruptcies and massive unemployment. – Perhaps a revolution here and there. – There will be no choice, deleveraging must happen.
Now, whether this system will come crashing down or just slowly die as it trundles downhill will not matter all that much. It will eventually die either way. Most people would prefer the slow motion option, but only with the crash would a cure come. Whatever, it has become increasingly difficult to stave off the crash and this time around, the financial markets would take the real economy down with them big time.”
We also reported about Russia’s advantage:
“The question then is, who would be left standing? Naturally, those who are less leveraged. Now, scroll back to have a new look at the above charts on government and household debt. Find the position of Russia there? That’s right. Russia is the country with – by far – the least debt, both public and private. Having after 2014 following sanctions been cut off from the Western debt orgy, even Russian corporations are shielded against a possible Western debt apocalypse.
Let’s look at Russia’s present financial health report.”
Subsequent events have proven that Awara was absolutely correct in everything referenced in that report about Russia’s extraordinary financial and economic We recommend all who have a stake or who want to explore the opportunities on the Russian market, to go through the solid set of arguments in this Awara report.
We then followed up on that August report with a brief in January called As Global Growth Stalls, The Russian Economy is Gathering Momentum. That was just after corona had become a global scare. In this report, we acknowledged the possibility that the corona crisis could wreak havoc in the global economy. But allowing for this scenario, we stressed that Russia would anyway fare substantially better than most of the world, and in particular, better than most Western countries on average. All the points made in the January economic brief still remain valid for a better understanding of today’s situation.
Skyrocketing debt, but not in Russia
Russia’s strengths are many. The extraordinary low level of government (national) debt forms the rock solid fundament of the country’s economic edifice. By the end of 2019, Russia’s national debt-to-GDP was 12.9%. This is a fraction of the debt levels of the old developed countries of the West. In the US, the national debt was way above 100% by 2019, when state and municipal debt is added to the official figures. (That in accordance with the global standards, which the US has not been following). With the already announced corona bailouts and stimulus, with the shortfall of tax revenue and additional debt and a lower GDP as the base, the US debt level will shoot above the 130% level. Hereby, Russia, is expected to add 3% to its national debt. All major Western countries have at least 3 times as much debt as Russia and many – for example, Italy, France, Spain – are in a similar debt crisis as the US. It is expected that most, if not all countries will follow the US lead with skyrocketing borrowings. These different debt trajectories will only increase Russia’s comparative advantages.
Being in this favorable situation, Russia has ample room to dip into a budget deficit, especially after two years of solid surpluses. Presently it is expected that Russia could manage the crisis with a mere 3.5% budget deficit in 2020. That’s a level, which has been the norm in the West even during the “good years.” Following the enormous economic crisis in the US, experts are predicting a record $3.8 trillion budget deficit, a staggering 18.7% of GDP. Most European countries might not go as high as the US in jacking up the deficits, though an average of at least 10% is to be expected.
GDP decline – far too early for definite predictions, but Russia relatively better off
We think it is far too early to make any predictions on countries’ actual GDP 2020. There are too many unknown factors. What is the level of permanent destruction and bankruptcies caused by the corona responses across the globe? (Quite a lot). Will the corona unemployment turn structural and long-term? (We think, to a big degree, yes). What has been the real level of destruction of disposable income and asset values, eroding of savings? (Huge). How long will restrictive measures stay in force? (At least leisure and travel, especially international will mostly remain shut until end of year). Will international trade and investments rebound? (Not, just by waving the magic wand of calling off the corona measures). Will beggar-thy-neighbor currency and trade wars raise their heads? (Yes). Will the US go out with full-blown trade war and sanctions on? (Looks so).
It is impossible to estimate the long-term economic effect of all these questions on the global economy and any given country in particular. Therefore, we think it is best to refrain from giving numeric predictions. We are however on much firmer ground to assess how countries will do relatively to each other. For this purpose, we may look at the GDP forecast given by the rating agency Fitch. Fitch predicts (April) that Russia would incur a 3.3% GDP cut, this while their predictions are much worse for Western countries, Fitch expecting eurozone GDP to decline by 7%, US GDP by 5.6%, and UK GDP by 6.3% in 2020. We would in fact expect a bigger GDP decline for those countries and perhaps for Russia as well, though with a major advantage for Russia.
When estimating the Russian GDP decline, one has to bear in mind that the fossil fuel sector makes up a much smaller portion of the GDP than commonly believed. According to the latest figures from the World Bank, we estimate it as forming 9% of the economic output. Furthermore, GDP growth is calculated based on production volumes rather than prices, and the former is not expected to significantly decline. We estimate that Brent oil would cost $35 per barrel by the end of this year.
No galloping inflation this time. Rate cuts expected
Not only the Russian government is financially solid, but also corporations and households. Household debt in Russia is also the lowest among major countries. At the same time, Russians have – proportionally – much more savings than for example Americans. Furthermore, there is no reason to expect Russian unemployment to rise beyond 9%. We estimate that most probably it will not exceed 7% by year-end. Meanwhile, unemployment already has shot up to 20% in the US.
Russia also has in store for the hard times the possibility to slash interest rates, hardly an option for Western countries who already are at zero or negative rates. Already in April, the Russian central bank cut the key rate by 0.5% to 5.5%. As inflation has not picked up, we see room for further rate cuts down to 4% within the next half year.
In all the financial crises Russia has experienced since 1990, the big problem was always the galloping inflation. This time however, inflation didn’t budge beyond a small initial shock. The difference is the incredible story of Russia’s solid finances and the amazing success of its important substitution policies. Import substitution is what Russians call the efforts to bring in manufacturing and food production onshore. This process was intensified after the West imposed sanctions on Russia in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis. As a result, Russia now is virtually self-sufficient in food and even exporting a surplus. Russia has also come close to self-sufficiency in medicine. Overall, Russia has by far the absolutely smallest share of imports relative to the total economy among all major countries. So far, critics of Russia have focused on the relatively smaller level of export of manufactured goods, while they failed to realize the importance of the vastly more significant domestic autarky.
This success of domestic production is what put an end to Russia’s vicious inflation cycle. Earlier, when Russia was dependent on foreign imports and energy exports, the ruble plummeted and prices shot up during a crisis. This is not the case anymore.
Oil price won’t break the bear’s back
This time even the sharp plunge in oil prices did not break Russia’s back. There have even been speculations that Russia has not been trying especially hard to prevent the rumored tripartite oil price war between itself, Saudi Arabia and the United States. The influential oil and energy news source Oilprice.com reported in March that Russia could well cope – thanks to its built up reserves and financial solidity – with oil prices as low as $25 per barrel up to 10 years from point of view of keeping the countries budget afloat and foreign reserves intact. Meanwhile experts deemed that the Saudis would barely last for 2 years.
Anton Siluanov, the minister of finance, estimated in late April that the money in the sovereign wealth fund will suffice to see the country through to 2024 according to the present situation assessment. The balance should be 7 trillion rubles ($90 bn) at the end of the year. The minister expects that the total cost of the corona response would be only 6.5% of GDP. (We assume, this means over next two years). The main source of funding the crisis response would consist of borrowings.
No blanket bailouts and money printing
Although business associations and the financial press have been criticizing the government for insufficient support in response to the crisis, we think it is good that the government has been cautious in this regard. The European governments have announced massive packages; the ECB has opened up an unlimited tab for bond purchases; the US government is doling out trillions; and the Fed was at $6 trillion bailouts and QE last time we checked. Russia on the contrary has not announced any blanket bailouts or QE monetary easing and bond purchases. All that big business has received so far is a paltry $10 million in tax deferments. The government is readying a program for them. Anything paid out however, in form of loans or other financing, will be considered case-by-case. Most importantly, the government has announced that only companies that refrain from mass lay-offs will be eligible.
So far, there has been more direct support for SMEs, most importantly with a 50% reduction in employer’s social contribution. Direct support has also gone to front-line sufferers of the corona restrictions, enterprises in non-food retail, restaurants, bars, leisure, sports etc. In general, the relief provided to those is rather inadequate and unfortunately many of those companies are expected to go bankrupt.
The support to households has been twofold. Most importantly, employers have been forced to bear the cost of the stay-home regime, as the government mandated that they have to pay full salaries during this period. Dismissals, furloughing and reduction of pay was outlawed, although there are reports that many have proceeded to do so anyway. However, all such actions can be contested in court.
Russia relies on market mechanisms
Russia mainly and correctly relies on market forces to take it out of the crisis. This is only possible because Russia still being one of the few countries in the world that still runs a market economy.
Russia of all countries in the world is in the unique position to conduct a classical countercyclical fiscal and monetary policy on all fronts. (It’s classical according to theory, but as far as we know, first time ever applied in practice). It means dipping into a budget deficit in hard times after having secured surpluses when the going was good. It means using reserves from the sovereign wealth fund, to fund public works. It also means slashing the interest rates, when it is needed to ease monetary conditions and stimulate the economy.
Russia now the world’s fifth largest economy ahead of Germany
With corona dominating the news, the business media entirely missed the latest IMF GDP figures for 2019, made official on April 22. The PPP conversion now showed that Russia had passed Germany as the world’s fifth largest economy. The other stunning fact was that the Chinese economy is now one-third bigger than the US. Note also, once the UK will be deducted from the EU totals, India alone will be very close to overtake the EU in economic size.
We stress that the PPP conversion is the only sensible way to measure the relative size of countries’ economies. The PPP measures the real output of goods and services, whereas the nominal GDP only measures how expensive one country is relative to another. We have explained the difference between PPP and nominal GDP in this article. If anybody still wants to take comfort in the nominal figures in an attempt to cling on to a lost world, then by all means do carry on, who are we to stop you?
Most importantly, these figures show a trend, which cannot be denied. Note, these are not adjusted for debt levels. If we would do that – reduce the artificial GDP portion achieved through wasteful (non-productive) debt – then Russia would come out even far better. Actually, we have earlier done such an exercise on reducing debt from countries’ GDP and the results were shocking. You can access that report here.
At the end, we are sure that due to the corona crisis Russia, China and India will extend their relative GDP leads.
Therefore, our advice: Go East, corporations, young and old.


russia-insider--2020-05-07--US Hatching Plans to Remove Rivals Russia and China in Post-COVID World

While the global economy plunges into a recession , actively aided by the coronavirus pandemic , the US is already hatching plans not just for its own recovery , but also the removal of geopolitical rivals like Russia and China .
The expectation is probably that many countries will have been weakened by the current crisis .
Opponents will be unable to adequately resist , and partners and neutral parties will be forced to take the position dictated to them by Washington .
Therefore , to catch everyone off guard , appropriate action strategies must be prepared .
Revenge is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , one of which is the global energy sector .
While oil prices fluctuate , the US has decided to reshape the nuclear energy market .
In “ Restoring America ’ s Competitive Nuclear Energy Advantage .
A Strategy to Assure US National Security ” , a report recently published by the US Department of Energy , it states that “ the U.S. Government will move into markets currently dominated by Russian and Chinese State Owned Enterprises ( SOE ) and recover our position as the world leader in exporting best-in-class nuclear energy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ non-proliferation standards .
We will restore American nuclear credibility and demonstrate American commitment to competing in contested markets and repositioning America as the responsible nuclear energy partner of choice.
” It notes that the related cost estimates for “ concrete actions ” have been included in the budget for 2021 .
Consequently , this is the year that the US will begin active measures against Russia and China .
US Congress will support the Department of Energy , which can be understood as the possible imposition of sanctions against core enterprises .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russia , the report says the country has “ weaponized ” its energy supply as an “ instrument of coercion ” and “ dominates nuclear markets ” .
Generally speaking , this refers to the production and supply of nuclear reactors , the sale of nuclear fuel to others countries , and access to uranium .
In addition , the report pushes the concept of non-proliferation and nuclear safety , which actually means US meddling under the guise of inspections .
Ironically , the International Atomic Energy Agency ( IAEA ) does not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , although there is room for the interests of the US Defense Department .
It states : “ The U.S. has well-defined defense needs that also depend on a healthy nuclear fuel cycle in the long-term .
There are currently two defense needs for uranium : low-enriched uranium is needed to produce tritium required for nuclear weapons , and highly- enriched uranium is used to fuel Navy nuclear reactors.
” The aim is to introduce protectionist measures for the US market with regard to Russian nuclear energy supplies , and also work more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market .
There are also plans to increase US research and establish a nuclear industrial base similar in structure to its defence industrial base .
At the same time , one can conclude from various US sources that there will be competition for the Arctic .
On 23 April , Danish and US officials announced a $ 12 million financial and diplomatic package for Greenland to “ open a consulate on the island in a bid to strengthen mutual ties and counter growing Russian and Chinese interests in the Arctic.
” US media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is going to build new nuclear icebreakers that could be used to service the Northern Sea Route , including in the interests of China .
In contrast , the US itself has only two icebreakers , both built in the 1970s .
And of the six breakers planned for the Coast Guard , only two have funding and will not be ready until 2024 .
For the Arctic latitudes , the US military is also testing drones and land-based robots .
They were used as part of the Arctic Edge 2020 exercise held @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the press release mentions hypothetical friction in the region and , when it comes to the US , this could only be with Russia .
The US has also been paying more attention to the Pacific and Indian oceans owing to China ’ s activities in the region .
Two years ago , at a Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing , Admiral Philip Davidson said he will work to increase military presence on China ’ s borders .
Now , this reorganisation of US forces is starting to take shape .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reported that cyber operators with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit had been deployed for the first time with the USS America in the Pacific .
Their goal is to establish a working method for future teams dealing with cybersecurity issues .
The contingent of cyber operators was deployed to the 7th US Fleet immediately after Exercise Cobra Gold 2020 in Thailand , which also involved military units from Japan , Malaysia , Indonesia , and Singapore .
In addition , the US Indo-Pacific Command has announced it needs an investment of $ 20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been submitted to Congress .
The Pentagon is thinking of establishing a special fund that will be a Pacific version of the European Containment Initiative developed exclusively against Russia .
The Pacific Deterrence Initiative would be focussed on dealing with China .
False news stories have also started circulating that China has been testing low-yield nuclear weapons , which could suggest a violation of nuclear test limitation agreements .
The US has no visible evidence , however .
In May 2019 , similar statements were made with regard to Russia .
Chances are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ related to the US nuclear arsenal .
Russia has also been accused of testing an anti-satellite missile .
The commander of US Space Command , General John Raymond , stated that “ [ t ] he United States is ready and committed to deterring aggression and defending the nation , our allies , and U.S. interests from hostile acts in space , ” while the testing of launch vehicles was proof of “ Russia ’ s hypocritical advocacy of outer space arms control proposals ” .
There has been no official statement from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anti-satellite missile ” , however .
It is merely speculation by the US military and the media .
What is not speculation , however , is that the US Space Force is starting to deploy a system that jams foreign satellites , and it is Russian satellites that are mentioned .
Not only will a network of ground-based radio-electronic jamming stations be set up in the next few years , but dozens of new military satellites will be launched into orbit .
Discussions are underway to increase the number of bombers or increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US Air Force Global Strike Command And finally , the White House announced in early April that it is going to double the number of US military personnel in the Caribbean .
This relates to the US Navy , reconnaissance aircraft , US Air Force attack helicopters , and Coast Guard cutters .
The US Secretary of Defense referred to the expansion of operations against drug cartels operating in Colombia , but the announcement was perceived as political pressure on Venezuela .
Combining these disparate but interrelated facts into a single picture , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global appetite is not diminishing , but rather , under the guise of threats from Russia and China , both the Pentagon and the US State Department are working together to preserve and strengthen the country ’ s geopolitical dominance .

While the global economy plunges into a recession, actively aided by the coronavirus pandemic, the US is already hatching plans not just for its own recovery, but also the removal of geopolitical rivals like Russia and China. The expectation is probably that many countries will have been weakened by the current crisis. Opponents will be unable to adequately resist, and partners and neutral parties will be forced to take the position dictated to them by Washington. Therefore, to catch everyone off guard, appropriate action strategies must be prepared.
Revenge is being planned on several fronts at once, one of which is the global energy sector. While oil prices fluctuate, the US has decided to reshape the nuclear energy market. In “Restoring America’s Competitive Nuclear Energy Advantage. A Strategy to Assure US National Security”, a report recently published by the US Department of Energy, it states that “the U.S. Government will move into markets currently dominated by Russian and Chinese State Owned Enterprises (SOE) and recover our position as the world leader in exporting best-in-class nuclear energy technology, and with it, strong non-proliferation standards. We will restore American nuclear credibility and demonstrate American commitment to competing in contested markets and repositioning America as the responsible nuclear energy partner of choice.” It notes that the related cost estimates for “concrete actions” have been included in the budget for 2021. Consequently, this is the year that the US will begin active measures against Russia and China. US Congress will support the Department of Energy, which can be understood as the possible imposition of sanctions against core enterprises. It is interesting that, in reference to Russia, the report says the country has “weaponized” its energy supply as an “instrument of coercion” and “dominates nuclear markets”.
Generally speaking, this refers to the production and supply of nuclear reactors, the sale of nuclear fuel to others countries, and access to uranium. In addition, the report pushes the concept of non-proliferation and nuclear safety, which actually means US meddling under the guise of inspections. Ironically, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) does not get a single mention in the report, although there is room for the interests of the US Defense Department. It states: “The U.S. has well-defined defense needs that also depend on a healthy nuclear fuel cycle in the long-term. There are currently two defense needs for uranium: low-enriched uranium is needed to produce tritium required for nuclear weapons, and highly- enriched uranium is used to fuel Navy nuclear reactors.”
The aim is to introduce protectionist measures for the US market with regard to Russian nuclear energy supplies, and also work more closely with Russian clients in the foreign market.
There are also plans to increase US research and establish a nuclear industrial base similar in structure to its defence industrial base.
The USS Toledo (SSN-769) arrives at Ice Camp Seadragon on the Arctic Ocean kicking off Ice Exercise (ICEX) 2020
At the same time, one can conclude from various US sources that there will be competition for the Arctic. On 23 April, Danish and US officials announced a $12 million financial and diplomatic package for Greenland to “open a consulate on the island in a bid to strengthen mutual ties and counter growing Russian and Chinese interests in the Arctic.”
US media outlets are also expressing concern that Russia is going to build new nuclear icebreakers that could be used to service the Northern Sea Route, including in the interests of China. In contrast, the US itself has only two icebreakers, both built in the 1970s. And of the six breakers planned for the Coast Guard, only two have funding and will not be ready until 2024.
For the Arctic latitudes, the US military is also testing drones and land-based robots. They were used as part of the Arctic Edge 2020 exercise held in Alaska in February. Again, the press release mentions hypothetical friction in the region and, when it comes to the US, this could only be with Russia.
The US has also been paying more attention to the Pacific and Indian oceans owing to China’s activities in the region.
Two years ago, at a Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing, Admiral Philip Davidson said he will work to increase military presence on China’s borders. Now, this reorganisation of US forces is starting to take shape.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L) leaves the stage to US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper (R) during a briefing on December 29, 2019
In early April, a specialist US publication reported that cyber operators with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit had been deployed for the first time with the USS America in the Pacific. Their goal is to establish a working method for future teams dealing with cybersecurity issues. The contingent of cyber operators was deployed to the 7th US Fleet immediately after Exercise Cobra Gold 2020 in Thailand, which also involved military units from Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore.
In addition, the US Indo-Pacific Command has announced it needs an investment of $20 billion, and the request has already been submitted to Congress. The Pentagon is thinking of establishing a special fund that will be a Pacific version of the European Containment Initiative developed exclusively against Russia. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative would be focussed on dealing with China.
False news stories have also started circulating that China has been testing low-yield nuclear weapons, which could suggest a violation of nuclear test limitation agreements.
The US has no visible evidence, however. In May 2019, similar statements were made with regard to Russia. Chances are that the next step will be activities related to the US nuclear arsenal.
Russia has also been accused of testing an anti-satellite missile. The commander of US Space Command, General John Raymond, stated that “[t]he United States is ready and committed to deterring aggression and defending the nation, our allies, and U.S. interests from hostile acts in space,” while the testing of launch vehicles was proof of “Russia’s hypocritical advocacy of outer space arms control proposals”. There has been no official statement from Russia that it actually was an “anti-satellite missile”, however. It is merely speculation by the US military and the media.
What is not speculation, however, is that the US Space Force is starting to deploy a system that jams foreign satellites, and it is Russian satellites that are mentioned. Not only will a network of ground-based radio-electronic jamming stations be set up in the next few years, but dozens of new military satellites will be launched into orbit.
Discussions are underway to increase the number of bombers or increase the payload of every aircraft in the US Air Force Global Strike Command
And finally, the White House announced in early April that it is going to double the number of US military personnel in the Caribbean. This relates to the US Navy, reconnaissance aircraft, US Air Force attack helicopters, and Coast Guard cutters. The US Secretary of Defense referred to the expansion of operations against drug cartels operating in Colombia, but the announcement was perceived as political pressure on Venezuela.
Combining these disparate but interrelated facts into a single picture, we can see that America’s global appetite is not diminishing, but rather, under the guise of threats from Russia and China, both the Pentagon and the US State Department are working together to preserve and strengthen the country’s geopolitical dominance.


russia-insider--2020-05-08--Donald Trump Is Igniting a Cold War With China to Win the Election

“ Go to China !
” , a woman in Denver , Colorado , shouts at two hospital workers standing in front of her car to prevent her from taking part in a protest against the coronavirus lockdown .
Her cry is a sign that President Trump is having some success in demonising China : he says that that he has a “ high degree of confidence ” that the deadly virus emanated from a laboratory in Wuhan , though he can not reveal the source of his information .
The level of Trump ’ s mendacity is far grosser @ @ @ @ @ @ @ War by claiming that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction ( WMD ) .
Then too there were stories of secret laboratories developing biological weapons .
Though Trump is purging US intelligence chiefs and replacing them with Trump loyalists , even they could not stomach his latest conspiracy theory .
“ The intelligence also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the Covid-19 virus was not man-made or genetically modified , ” said a statement from the office of the director of national intelligence , Richard Grenell .
The purpose of Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by rational argument but to dominate the news agenda by outrageous allegations .
This simple PR trick has previously worked well for him , but scapegoating China may not be enough to divert attention away from the price Americans have paid for his calamitous mishandling of the pandemic .
The casualty figures tell their own grim story : in China there have been 84,373 cases of the illness and 4,643 deaths while in the US there have been just over 1.1 million cases and 64,460 deaths .
Trump loyalists will claim that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ must also explain away the lower loss of life in South Korea , Singapore and Taiwan .
The strategy is crude , but demonising China as “ The Yellow Peril ” might just work on election day .
“ Don ’ t defend Trump , other than the China Travel Ban – attack China , ” says a 57-page memo sent out by the National Republican Senatorial Committee to Republican candidates , advising them on how to rebut criticism of the president ’ s actions .
Joe Biden , the Democratic Party presidential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Republicans as “ Beijing Biden ” .
In an epidemic , people are frightened and seek a scapegoat , foreigners at home and abroad being an obvious target .
Probably only a hate-driven conspiracy theory can keep Trump in the White House when 30 million Americans are unemployed .
Many of those who used WMD to deliver a hot war against Iraq in 2003 , are the same people who promote a cold war against China today .
This approach requires an extraordinary degree of irresponsibility : Trump is launching his cold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ medical and economic response is needed to counter a virus that has spread from Tajikistan to the upper Amazon and can only be suppressed or contained by international action .
It is surely disastrous historical bad luck that this unprecedented global threat is occurring just as independent nation states are re-emerging , in so far as they ever disappeared , as the essential players on the international stage at the expense of international institutions : the UN and EU were losing influence pre-epidemic and have been marginalised since in the last six months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much back in business , but they are increasingly run by far-right nativist populist leaders , of whom Trump is only one of the more crazed examples .
Most of these are proving highly incompetent in dealing with the pandemic and none are likely to favour international cooperation .
The real problem here is the US : international organisations like the UN and agencies like the World Health Organisation only exerted real influence when backed by Washington .
Often accused of being American puppets , they enjoyed a degree of autonomy and effectiveness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of its power in order to maintain its global hegemony .
Trump is abandoning this calculation .
The new cold war against China was already gathering momentum before the pandemic .
Western political establishments have long been wobbling between opposing China as a rival superpower and cultivating it as an economic powerhouse whose explosive if debt-fuelled expansion helped drag the rest of the world out of the post-2008 recession .
The post-1945 Cold War was fought by the US and its allies against the Soviet Union until it collapsed in 1991 ; this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a cold war against Iran and Iraq which were alternately portrayed as the source of all evil .
Trump is unlikely to demote Iran from its present demonic status but he is clearly intent on portraying China as equally evil .
Many politically palatable reasons for this will be advanced in the coming months , but the real charge against China is one of effectiveness .
It has shown itself more competent than other powerful states in dealing with two world crises : the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic of 2019-20 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a superpower is not total : it plays a hegemonic role in the world financial system .
But its post-9/11 wars in Iraq and Afghanistan showed that , despite vast expenditure , its armed forces could not deliver victory and the pandemic is demonstrating that its equally expensive health system is appallingly unequal and inadequate .
Trump is a symptom as well as a cause of the polarisation of the US political system , more divided now than at any time since the Civil War ended in 1865 .
Yet the decline of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rise of China , significant though that may be , and it is naive to imagine that Beijing will simply displace Washington at the top table .
In reality , nobody is going to replace the US , but there will be a rush of other countries moving to fill the vacuum left by its absence .
Much of this would have happened anyway as US economic and political primacy eroded .
But the process by which this is happening has been speeded up by two wild cards that nobody even knew were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump as president in 2016 and the Covid-19 pandemic .
The world is currently full of nation states , and not just China , who see threats and opportunities all around them .
The result will be ever-increasing turmoil .

“Go to China!”, a woman in Denver, Colorado, shouts at two hospital workers standing in front of her car to prevent her from taking part in a protest against the coronavirus lockdown. Her cry is a sign that President Trump is having some success in demonising China: he says that that he has a “high degree of confidence” that the deadly virus emanated from a laboratory in Wuhan, though he cannot reveal the source of his information.
The level of Trump’s mendacity is far grosser than that used to sell the Iraq War by claiming that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Then too there were stories of secret laboratories developing biological weapons. Though Trump is purging US intelligence chiefs and replacing them with Trump loyalists, even they could not stomach his latest conspiracy theory. “The intelligence also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the Covid-19 virus was not man-made or genetically modified,” said a statement from the office of the director of national intelligence, Richard Grenell.
The purpose of Trump’s lies is not to convince by rational argument but to dominate the news agenda by outrageous allegations. This simple PR trick has previously worked well for him, but scapegoating China may not be enough to divert attention away from the price Americans have paid for his calamitous mishandling of the pandemic. The casualty figures tell their own grim story: in China there have been 84,373 cases of the illness and 4,643 deaths while in the US there have been just over 1.1 million cases and 64,460 deaths. Trump loyalists will claim that the Chinese are lying, but then they must also explain away the lower loss of life in South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
The strategy is crude, but demonising China as “The Yellow Peril” might just work on election day. “Don’t defend Trump, other than the China Travel Ban – attack China,” says a 57-page memo sent out by the National Republican Senatorial Committee to Republican candidates, advising them on how to rebut criticism of the president’s actions. Joe Biden, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, is already being pilloried by the Republicans as “Beijing Biden”. In an epidemic, people are frightened and seek a scapegoat, foreigners at home and abroad being an obvious target. Probably only a hate-driven conspiracy theory can keep Trump in the White House when 30 million Americans are unemployed.
Many of those who used WMD to deliver a hot war against Iraq in 2003, are the same people who promote a cold war against China today. This approach requires an extraordinary degree of irresponsibility: Trump is launching his cold war against China just when a global medical and economic response is needed to counter a virus that has spread from Tajikistan to the upper Amazon and can only be suppressed or contained by international action.
It is surely disastrous historical bad luck that this unprecedented global threat is occurring just as independent nation states are re-emerging, in so far as they ever disappeared, as the essential players on the international stage at the expense of international institutions: the UN and EU were losing influence pre-epidemic and have been marginalised since in the last six months. Nation states are not only very much back in business, but they are increasingly run by far-right nativist populist leaders, of whom Trump is only one of the more crazed examples. Most of these are proving highly incompetent in dealing with the pandemic and none are likely to favour international cooperation.
The real problem here is the US: international organisations like the UN and agencies like the World Health Organisation only exerted real influence when backed by Washington. Often accused of being American puppets, they enjoyed a degree of autonomy and effectiveness because the US needed to outsource some of its power in order to maintain its global hegemony. Trump is abandoning this calculation.
The new cold war against China was already gathering momentum before the pandemic. Western political establishments have long been wobbling between opposing China as a rival superpower and cultivating it as an economic powerhouse whose explosive if debt-fuelled expansion helped drag the rest of the world out of the post-2008 recession.
The post-1945 Cold War was fought by the US and its allies against the Soviet Union until it collapsed in 1991; this coincided after the Islamic Revolution in 1979 with a cold war against Iran and Iraq which were alternately portrayed as the source of all evil. Trump is unlikely to demote Iran from its present demonic status but he is clearly intent on portraying China as equally evil. Many politically palatable reasons for this will be advanced in the coming months, but the real charge against China is one of effectiveness. It has shown itself more competent than other powerful states in dealing with two world crises: the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic of 2019-20.
The decline of the US as a superpower is not total: it plays a hegemonic role in the world financial system. But its post-9/11 wars in Iraq and Afghanistan showed that, despite vast expenditure, its armed forces could not deliver victory and the pandemic is demonstrating that its equally expensive health system is appallingly unequal and inadequate.
Trump is a symptom as well as a cause of the polarisation of the US political system, more divided now than at any time since the Civil War ended in 1865. Yet the decline of the US is much greater than the rise of China, significant though that may be, and it is naive to imagine that Beijing will simply displace Washington at the top table.
In reality, nobody is going to replace the US, but there will be a rush of other countries moving to fill the vacuum left by its absence. Much of this would have happened anyway as US economic and political primacy eroded. But the process by which this is happening has been speeded up by two wild cards that nobody even knew were in the pack: the election of Trump as president in 2016 and the Covid-19 pandemic. The world is currently full of nation states, and not just China, who see threats and opportunities all around them. The result will be ever-increasing turmoil.


russia-insider--2020-05-08--Trump: Its 'Very Insulting' That Constitution Limits His Power to Attack Iran Militarily for Israel

Passed in the Senate in February and the House in March , the Iran War Powers Resolution appears to have @ @ @ @ @ Wednesday when it was vetoed by President Trump , who insisted it was “ very @ @ @ @ @ limit his ability to attack Iran .
The resolution was a preemptive War Powers Act @ @ @ @ @ Iran , aiming to note that Congress has not in any way authorized a US @ @ @ @ @ ordering them to stop any military actions related to this unauthorized conflict .
Trump has @ @ @ @ @ gives him the absolute right to make decisions on who to attack , saying it @ @ @ @ @ , and that it would be dangerous to any way limit the possibility of the @ @ @ @ @ .
The War Powers Act gives Congress the power to limit such actions .
That @ @ @ @ @ nor Senate passed the resolution with anywhere near a veto-proof majority , and that likely @ @ @ @ @ is the end of this particular legal challenge , for now .

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russia-insider--2020-05-08--George Soros Controls  the EU's Court of Human Rights, They Admit It Themselves

On February 25 , I asked in an article whether the European Court of Human Rights ( ECHR ) depends on George Soros .
The article relied on a devastating report by the European Center for Law & Justice ( ECLJ ) in Strasbourg entitled Les ONG et les juges de la CEDH , 2009-2019 [ “ NGOs and the Judges of the ECHR , 2009 – 2019 ” — available also in English and Spanish ] .
After two months , the ECHR has , by its actions , confirmed and strengthened the case of Soros ’ s influence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ why , are the subects of a new ECLJ exposé by its Director , Grégor Puppinck , who is also a member of the Committee of Experts on the Reform of the ECHR .
He is also the co-author of the February report .
Before covering the new report , however , here is some background .
The ECLJ is an international organization dedicated to the promotion and protection of human rights and religious freedom throughout the world .
ECLJ has held special Consultative Status before the Economic and Social Council of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meticulous six-month investigation regarding the decade between 2009-2019 , it produced the above-mentioned report , concluding that out of the 100 permanent judges of the Court , 22—almost a quarter of the assembly—have links to seven particular NGOs .
In fact , before becoming judges on the Court , these individuals were collaborators and sometimes even managers of the NGOs in question .
The organizations , in alphabetical order , to which the judges are tied are as follow : A.I.R.E .
Centre ( Center for Individual Rights in Europe ) ; Amnesty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; the Helsinki committees and foundations network ; Human Rights Watch ; Interights ( International Center for the Judicial Protection of Human Rights ) ; and the Open Society Foundations network with its various branches , in particular the Open Society Justice Initiative .
Of those 22 judges , 12 have had direct relationships with Open Society , making it the single NGO in the list to which the most judges are connected ( a fact attested in the judges ’ own biographies as given on the website of the Parliamentary Assembly of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is more , the six other NGOs identified in the report are financed by Open Society .
The report also found that 18 of the 22 judges had heard cases on the court presented or supported by Open Society .
In the ten years taken into consideration , the report identified 88 cases that it defined as “ problematic ” in this regard .
Additionally , in many more cases there were also links between the judges and the NGOs , though indirect ones and therefore not identifiable by the “ problematic ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sum , the February report clearly establishes that what is at stake here in nothing less than the independence of the Court and the transparency of its work : important questions for the body that arbitrates the matter of human rights in Europe !
The ultimate question that comes into view is whhether the Court is swayed by Open Society—i.e .
billionaire George Soros ’ network of organizations that propagates and finances abortion propoganda and transgender ideology throughout the world .
So , two months after the February report , the ECHR has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concerns contained therein : by electing a man Dr. Puppinck calls “ the most controversial judge ” —Bulgarian Yonko Grozev—to the important post of “ section president.
” .
Why does Puppinck find Grozev “ most controversial ?
” He writes : “ Grozev has spent his entire career as a lawyer and activist in NGOs close to George Soros or financed by him , until he became one of the world leaders of the Open Society branch specialising in the use of judicial institutions for political purposes ( the Open Society Justice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inter alia , as a lawyer for a group of punk women ( Pussy Riot ) who committed a sacrilegious act in Moscow Cathedral.
” To be clear , we at iFamNews are strongly convinced that everyone has he right to a defense attorney .
( This is , in fact , one of the most luminous legacies given to the world civilization by the Middle Ages , including the Inquisition , as the Italian-American specialist John Tedeschi clearly highlights in his The Prosecution of Heresy : Collected Studies on the Inquisition in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know all too well that only despotisms and totalitarianisms deny this important right of a competent legal defense .
Nevertheless , these facts about Grozev do provoke our journalistic curiosity .
As Dr. Puppincnk further details , “ Already in 2014 , the modalities of [ Grozev ’ s ] nomination in Strasbourg had been challenged , as three members of the Bulgarian selection committee were his NGO fellows .
A complaint to the Council of Europe by a local organisation about the irregularity of the selection procedure was dismissed.
” And the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ says Puppinck , was an “ activist ” , with “ no experience as a magistrate ( like the majority of the judges in Strasbourg ) , ” when he was appointed as a judge on the ECHR .
Then , “ [ s ] hortly after his election , his new colleagues ruled in his favour in the Pussy Riot case and ordered Russia to pay him , as is customary , substantial compensation.
” Once Mr. Grozev had been nominated as a judge , Puppinck explains , several cases came up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ECHR himself as a lawyer , or which had been brought by his former NGOs.
” Puppinck says that while in 9 such cases Grozev recused himself , “ he still participated in the judgment of at least 10 other cases brought or supported by NGOs which he himself had founded or directed until recently.
” Puppinck provides a listing of these cases .
Puppinck goes on , “ such conduct constitutes a serious and repeated breach of a judge ’ s basic ethical obligations ” and “ in any state governed by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ subject ] of such breaches would be liable to severe disciplinary sanctions.
” The Bulgarian Ministry of Justice even publicly raised the possibility of Mr. Grozev ’ s dismissal , though it left the matter to the ECHR itself to decide .
Now , though , Grozev has advanced even higher in the ECHR , as he “ will head one of the five sections of the Court , will exercise general management powers within the Court , and will systematically sit in the most important cases.
” He will also have power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , on a case-by-case basis , whether to invite , allow or refuse the intervention of NGOs in cases.
” Not a bad gig , if you can get it… Marco Respinti is the Editor-in-Chief of International Family News .
He is an Italian professional journalist , essayist , translator , and lecturer .
He has contributed and contributes to several journals and magazines both in print and online , both in Italy and abroad .
Author of books , he has translated and/or edited works by , among others , Edmund Burke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Russell Kirk , J.R.R .
Tolkien , Régine Pernoud and Gustave Thibon .
A Senior fellow at the Russell Kirk Center for Cultural Renewal , a non-partisan , non-profit U.S. educational organization based in Mecosta , Michigan , he is also a founding member as well as Board member of the Center for European Renewal , a non-profit , non-partisan pan-European educational organization based in The Hague , The Netherlands .
He serves also as Director-in-Charge of the academic publication The Journal of CESNUR and Bitter Winter : A Magazine on Religious @ @ @ @ @ @ @

On February 25, I asked in an article whether the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) depends on George Soros. The article relied on a devastating report by the European Center for Law & Justice (ECLJ) in Strasbourg entitled Les ONG et les juges de la CEDH, 2009-2019 [“NGOs and the Judges of the ECHR, 2009 – 2019” — available also in English and Spanish]. After two months, the ECHR has, by its actions, confirmed and strengthened the case of Soros’s influence on the Court. How, and why, are the subects of a new ECLJ exposé by its Director, Grégor Puppinck, who is also a member of the Committee of Experts on the Reform of the ECHR. He is also the co-author of the February report. Before covering the new report, however, here is some background.
The ECLJ’s February Findings
The ECLJ is an international organization dedicated to the promotion and protection of human rights and religious freedom throughout the world. ECLJ has held special Consultative Status before the Economic and Social Council of the United Nations since 2007.
After a meticulous six-month investigation regarding the decade between 2009-2019, it produced the above-mentioned report, concluding that out of the 100 permanent judges of the Court, 22—almost a quarter of the assembly—have links to seven particular NGOs. In fact, before becoming judges on the Court, these individuals were collaborators and sometimes even managers of the NGOs in question. The organizations, in alphabetical order, to which the judges are tied are as follow: A.I.R.E. Centre (Center for Individual Rights in Europe); Amnesty International; the International Commission of Jurists; the Helsinki committees and foundations network; Human Rights Watch; Interights (International Center for the Judicial Protection of Human Rights); and the Open Society Foundations network with its various branches, in particular the Open Society Justice Initiative.
Of those 22 judges, 12 have had direct relationships with Open Society, making it the single NGO in the list to which the most judges are connected (a fact attested in the judges’ own biographies as given on the website of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe). What is more, the six other NGOs identified in the report are financed by Open Society.
The report also found that 18 of the 22 judges had heard cases on the court presented or supported by Open Society. In the ten years taken into consideration, the report identified 88 cases that it defined as “problematic” in this regard. Additionally, in many more cases there were also links between the judges and the NGOs, though indirect ones and therefore not identifiable by the “problematic” standard adopted in the report.
In sum, the February report clearly establishes that what is at stake here in nothing less than the independence of the Court and the transparency of its work: important questions for the body that arbitrates the matter of human rights in Europe! The ultimate question that comes into view is whhether the Court is swayed by Open Society—i.e. billionaire George Soros’ network of organizations that propagates and finances abortion propoganda and transgender ideology throughout the world.
“The Most Controversial Judge”
So, two months after the February report, the ECHR has acted so as to only confirm the concerns contained therein: by electing a man Dr. Puppinck calls “the most controversial judge”—Bulgarian Yonko Grozev—to the important post of “section president.”. Why does Puppinck find Grozev “most controversial?” He writes:
“Grozev has spent his entire career as a lawyer and activist in NGOs close to George Soros or financed by him, until he became one of the world leaders of the Open Society branch specialising in the use of judicial institutions for political purposes (the Open Society Justice Initiative). He became known, inter alia, as a lawyer for a group of punk women (Pussy Riot) who committed a sacrilegious act in Moscow Cathedral.”
To be clear, we at iFamNews are strongly convinced that everyone has he right to a defense attorney. (This is, in fact, one of the most luminous legacies given to the world civilization by the Middle Ages, including the Inquisition, as the Italian-American specialist John Tedeschi clearly highlights in his The Prosecution of Heresy: Collected Studies on the Inquisition in Early Modern Italy.) And we know all too well that only despotisms and totalitarianisms deny this important right of a competent legal defense. Nevertheless, these facts about Grozev do provoke our journalistic curiosity.
As Dr. Puppincnk further details, “Already in 2014, the modalities of [Grozev’s] nomination in Strasbourg had been challenged, as three members of the Bulgarian selection committee were his NGO fellows. A complaint to the Council of Europe by a local organisation about the irregularity of the selection procedure was dismissed.” And the irregularities run deeper: Mr. Grozev, says Puppinck, was an “activist”, with “no experience as a magistrate (like the majority of the judges in Strasbourg),” when he was appointed as a judge on the ECHR. Then, “[s]hortly after his election, his new colleagues ruled in his favour in the Pussy Riot case and ordered Russia to pay him, as is customary, substantial compensation.”
Advancing Even Higher
Once Mr. Grozev had been nominated as a judge, Puppinck explains, several cases came up “which he had brought before the ECHR himself as a lawyer, or which had been brought by his former NGOs.” Puppinck says that while in 9 such cases Grozev recused himself, “he still participated in the judgment of at least 10 other cases brought or supported by NGOs which he himself had founded or directed until recently.” Puppinck provides a listing of these cases. Puppinck goes on, “such conduct constitutes a serious and repeated breach of a judge’s basic ethical obligations” and “in any state governed by the rule of law, the [subject] of such breaches would be liable to severe disciplinary sanctions.” The Bulgarian Ministry of Justice even publicly raised the possibility of Mr. Grozev’s dismissal, though it left the matter to the ECHR itself to decide.
Now, though, Grozev has advanced even higher in the ECHR, as he “will head one of the five sections of the Court, will exercise general management powers within the Court, and will systematically sit in the most important cases.” He will also have power within his section to decide “alone, on a case-by-case basis, whether to invite, allow or refuse the intervention of NGOs in cases.” Not a bad gig, if you can get it…
Marco Respinti is the Editor-in-Chief of International Family News. He is an Italian professional journalist, essayist, translator, and lecturer. He has contributed and contributes to several journals and magazines both in print and online, both in Italy and abroad. Author of books, he has translated and/or edited works by, among others, Edmund Burke, Charles Dickens, T.S. Eliot, Russell Kirk, J.R.R. Tolkien, Régine Pernoud and Gustave Thibon. A Senior fellow at the Russell Kirk Center for Cultural Renewal, a non-partisan, non-profit U.S. educational organization based in Mecosta, Michigan, he is also a founding member as well as Board member of the Center for European Renewal, a non-profit, non-partisan pan-European educational organization based in The Hague, The Netherlands. He serves also as Director-in-Charge of the academic publication The Journal of CESNUR and Bitter Winter: A Magazine on Religious Liberty and Human Rights in China.


russia-insider--2020-05-08--How China Will React to the Unprecedented Hysteria From the West

Beijing is turbocharging its Belt and Road and other game-changing plans despite Covid-19 and US hybrid warfare Amid the deepest economic contraction in nearly a century , President Xi Jinping had already made it very clear , last month , that China should be ready for unprecedented , relentless foreign challenges .
He was not referring only to the possible decoupling of global supply chains and the non-stop demonization of every project related to the New Silk Roads , or Belt and Road Initiative .
An allegedly leaked internal document , secret and invisible inside China , but nonetheless obtained @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stated , essentially , that the blame game against China over the virus is like the backlash over Tiananmen all over again .
According to the secret , invisible document , China would have to “ prepare for armed confrontation between the two global powers ” – a reference to the US .
It ’ s as if this was an aggressive strategy deployed by the Chinese state in the first place , and not in response to the massive escalation of hybrid warfare 2.0 by the United States government .
For all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China across the Beltway has now overtaken the previous hysterics , the demonization of Russia .
What Beijing used to define as a “ period of strategic opportunity ” is over .
There were rumblings in intel circles that the CCP leadership believed this strategic window of opportunity would last unimpeded until the key date , 2049 – when “ national rejuvenation ” should have been fully accomplished .
Forget it .
Now the whole game is about hybrid warfare 2.0 deployed by the US to contain the emerging superpower , whatever it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plethora of Chinese plans are now being turbo-charged .
The first order of business is to restore the productivity of the Made in China machine .
During his recent visit to Shaanxi province , historically crucial for the CCP , President Xi insisted on it , coupled with an anti-poverty offensive .
He had promised to eliminate poverty this year .
Significantly , and contrary to all Western forecasts , China ’ s exports grew 3.5 % in April , compared with a fall of 6.6 % in March .
This totally shatters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , for instance , is accelerating the relocation of factories from China , in haste .
Not a very clever strategy .
These factories are leaving a nation that has all but eradicated Covid-19 .
And if they move to Vietnam , well , that ’ s also a socialist economy ( with Vietnamese characteristics ) .
China ’ s GDP growth fell by 6.8 % in the first quarter of 2020 .
Recovery is already on .
Officially , unemployment was at 5.9 % in late March – not taking into account @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big cities after spending the apex of Covid-19 in the countryside .
There were projections of unemployment at 20 % – later retracted .
Recovery will be a mix of economic stimulus to companies , big and small ; investments in infrastructure ; and vouchers to a great many of the working masses .
The hukou system – linking social rights to place of residence – will also be reformed .
The key date to watch will be May 22 , during the postponed session of the National People ’ s Congress .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ think tank CAPS , a subsidiary of the Ministry of Foreign Relations in Paris , has become practically a mantra across the West .
CAPS is alarmed that China has become indispensable , while questioning its “ values ” and “ hidden agenda.
” With the EU totally paralyzed and graphically proving its irrelevance on myriad levels , especially in terms of agreeing upon an effective rescue package for all its members , the – declining – West , almost in block , is terrified that China is in the irreversible process of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after suffering the massive Covid-19 blow , Beijing seems to be in control of all base variables in its economic policy ( financial institutions , large corporations ) .
The CCP will double down on developing the whole production machine side by side with widespread application of AI techniques .
What seems to be established by now is that China will first secure its own national interests – in terms of global supply chains and exports .
Short and medium term , there will be concentrated focus on selected New Silk Roads overland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Road included .
Even with Covid-19 , China ’ s trade with Belt and Road nations grew 3.2 % in the first quarter , not shabby even when compared with the 10.8 % for the whole of 2019 .
According to the Ministry of Commerce , Beijing ’ s trade with 56 Belt and Road nations scattered across Asia , Africa , Europe and South America represents a very important 30 % of total annual trade .
Now compare it to the 13 % to 32 % contraction in global trade forecast by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So even if a trade drop in the first quarter of 2020 was more than predictable , it ’ s bound to pick up quickly especially in relation to Southeast Asia , Eastern Europe and the Arab world .
Belt and Road is predictably facing myriad short and middle term challenges – all linked to broken connectivity : supply chain breakdowns , widespread travel and visa restrictions , severe border controls , project delays because of increased costs .
Examples include the $ 6 billion , 150 km-long Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail in Indonesia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slowly trickling back in after being absent because of government restrictions .
Along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor , mandatory quarantine for Chinese technicians has frozen progress for at least two months .
The same applies to projects in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka .
According to an Economist Intelligence Unit report , Covid-19 will derail Belt and Road in 2020 .
That may have been the case only for the first four months of the year .
Even under Covid-19 , Beijing has signed deals for new Belt and Road projects in Myanmar , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China-Laos high-speed rail – connecting Yunnan , via Vientiane , to Thailand , Malaysia and Singapore – remains on track , with completion scheduled for the end of 2021 .
ASEAN , significantly , is now China ’ s number one trade partner , ahead of the drowning-in-crises EU .
The key takeaway from all this is that the CCP ’ s complex macro-strategy will be undisturbed .
That implies that China will remain the top engine of the global economy , with or without decoupling , and with Belt and Road at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ macro-foreign policy strategy , coupled with a solid drive towards multilateralism .
As much as vast swathes of the world economy , especially across the Global South , show no intention of decoupling from China , Beijing will have to be ready to counterpunch full-spectrum hybrid war by Washington on every front – geo-economic , cybernetic , biological , psychological .
As Kishore Mahbubani detailed in his latest book , that does not mean that China will have the intention – and the capacity – to become a new gendarme of the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and financial power , as in the careful implementation of the possibly gold-backed digital yuan .
And then there ’ s the relentlessly evolving game-changer responsible for the US establishment ’ s sleepless nights : the Russia-China strategic partnership .
Two weeks ago , an immensely important geopolitical development was virtually buried by corona-hysteria .
Moscow is very much aware that Washington is deploying missile defense systems very close to Russia ’ s borders – carrying the potential to deliver a nuclear first strike .
Beijing is following this development with alarm .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ part of the story : the key point is that Russia is confident sophisticated weapons such as the Sarmat and the Avangard will take care of it .
More complex is the issue of Pentagon bioweapon labs in the former USSR – an issue also closely followed by Beijing .
Moscow has identified a lab near Tblisi in Georgia , and 11 of them in Ukraine .
And way back in 2014 , when Crimea was reunited with Russia , scientists also found a lab in Simferopol .
All this information – nuclear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to me , is exchanged at the highest level of the Russia-China strategic partnership .
The next big move in the geopolitical chessboard points to the partnership negotiating their bilateral relations with the US as a team .
Nothing could be more rational , considering they are regarded as the top two “ threats ” to the US , according to the National Security Strategy .

Beijing is turbocharging its Belt and Road and other game-changing plans despite Covid-19 and US hybrid warfare
A Chinese soldier stands guard in a file photo. Photo: AFP/Getty
Amid the deepest economic contraction in nearly a century, President Xi Jinping had already made it very clear, last month, that China should be ready for unprecedented, relentless foreign challenges.
He was not referring only to the possible decoupling of global supply chains and the non-stop demonization of every project related to the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative.
An allegedly leaked internal document, secret and invisible inside China, but nonetheless obtained by some obscure Western-connected source, even stated, essentially, that the blame game against China over the virus is like the backlash over Tiananmen all over again.
According to the secret, invisible document, China would have to “prepare for armed confrontation between the two global powers” – a reference to the US. It’s as if this was an aggressive strategy deployed by the Chinese state in the first place, and not in response to the massive escalation of hybrid warfare 2.0 by the United States government.
For all practical purposes, the hysterical demonization of China across the Beltway has now overtaken the previous hysterics, the demonization of Russia.
What Beijing used to define as a “period of strategic opportunity” is over. There were rumblings in intel circles that the CCP leadership believed this strategic window of opportunity would last unimpeded until the key date, 2049 – when “national rejuvenation” should have been fully accomplished.
Forget it. Now the whole game is about hybrid warfare 2.0 deployed by the US to contain the emerging superpower, whatever it takes. And that implies that a plethora of Chinese plans are now being turbo-charged.
The first order of business is to restore the productivity of the Made in China machine. During his recent visit to Shaanxi province, historically crucial for the CCP, President Xi insisted on it, coupled with an anti-poverty offensive. He had promised to eliminate poverty this year.
Significantly, and contrary to all Western forecasts, China’s exports grew 3.5% in April, compared with a fall of 6.6% in March. This totally shatters the decoupling rationale. The Japanese government, for instance, is accelerating the relocation of factories from China, in haste. Not a very clever strategy.
These factories are leaving a nation that has all but eradicated Covid-19. And if they move to Vietnam, well, that’s also a socialist economy (with Vietnamese characteristics).
China’s GDP growth fell by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020. Recovery is already on. Officially, unemployment was at 5.9% in late March – not taking into account migrant workers who went back to the big cities after spending the apex of Covid-19 in the countryside. There were projections of unemployment at 20% – later retracted.
Recovery will be a mix of economic stimulus to companies, big and small; investments in infrastructure; and vouchers to a great many of the working masses. The hukou system – linking social rights to place of residence – will also be reformed. The key date to watch will be May 22, during the postponed session of the National People’s Congress.
Belt & Road on track
Geopolitically, the analysis by the French think tank CAPS, a subsidiary of the Ministry of Foreign Relations in Paris, has become practically a mantra across the West.
CAPS is alarmed that China has become indispensable, while questioning its “values” and “hidden agenda.” With the EU totally paralyzed and graphically proving its irrelevance on myriad levels, especially in terms of agreeing upon an effective rescue package for all its members, the – declining – West, almost in block, is terrified that China is in the irreversible process of becoming the top global power.
Even after suffering the massive Covid-19 blow, Beijing seems to be in control of all base variables in its economic policy (financial institutions, large corporations). The CCP will double down on developing the whole production machine side by side with widespread application of AI techniques.
What seems to be established by now is that China will first secure its own national interests – in terms of global supply chains and exports. Short and medium term, there will be concentrated focus on selected New Silk Roads overland and maritime connectivity corridors – Health Silk Road included.
Even with Covid-19, China’s trade with Belt and Road nations grew 3.2% in the first quarter, not shabby even when compared with the 10.8% for the whole of 2019.
According to the Ministry of Commerce, Beijing’s trade with 56 Belt and Road nations scattered across Asia, Africa, Europe and South America represents a very important 30% of total annual trade. Now compare it to the 13% to 32% contraction in global trade forecast by the World Trade Organization for 2020.
So even if a trade drop in the first quarter of 2020 was more than predictable, it’s bound to pick up quickly especially in relation to Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and the Arab world.
Belt and Road is predictably facing myriad short and middle term challenges – all linked to broken connectivity: supply chain breakdowns, widespread travel and visa restrictions, severe border controls, project delays because of increased costs.
Examples include the $6 billion, 150 km-long Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail in Indonesia, with technical experts from China only slowly trickling back in after being absent because of government restrictions. Along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, mandatory quarantine for Chinese technicians has frozen progress for at least two months. The same applies to projects in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
According to an Economist Intelligence Unit report, Covid-19 will derail Belt and Road in 2020. That may have been the case only for the first four months of the year. Even under Covid-19, Beijing has signed deals for new Belt and Road projects in Myanmar, Turkey and Nigeria.
The 414-km long China-Laos high-speed rail – connecting Yunnan, via Vientiane, to Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore – remains on track, with completion scheduled for the end of 2021. ASEAN, significantly, is now China’s number one trade partner, ahead of the drowning-in-crises EU.
Watch digital yuan
The key takeaway from all this is that the CCP’s complex macro-strategy will be undisturbed. That implies that China will remain the top engine of the global economy, with or without decoupling, and with Belt and Road at the very core of China’s macro-foreign policy strategy, coupled with a solid drive towards multilateralism.
As much as vast swathes of the world economy, especially across the Global South, show no intention of decoupling from China, Beijing will have to be ready to counterpunch full-spectrum hybrid war by Washington on every front – geo-economic, cybernetic, biological, psychological.
As Kishore Mahbubani detailed in his latest book, that does not mean that China will have the intention – and the capacity – to become a new gendarme of the world. It will certainly turbo-charge its economic and financial power, as in the careful implementation of the possibly gold-backed digital yuan.
And then there’s the relentlessly evolving game-changer responsible for the US establishment’s sleepless nights: the Russia-China strategic partnership.
Two weeks ago, an immensely important geopolitical development was virtually buried by corona-hysteria.
Moscow is very much aware that Washington is deploying missile defense systems very close to Russia’s borders – carrying the potential to deliver a nuclear first strike. Beijing is following this development with alarm.
Moscow being aware of it is just part of the story: the key point is that Russia is confident sophisticated weapons such as the Sarmat and the Avangard will take care of it.
More complex is the issue of Pentagon bioweapon labs in the former USSR – an issue also closely followed by Beijing. Moscow has identified a lab near Tblisi in Georgia, and 11 of them in Ukraine. And way back in 2014, when Crimea was reunited with Russia, scientists also found a lab in Simferopol.
All this information – nuclear and bioweapons – as intel sources confirmed to me, is exchanged at the highest level of the Russia-China strategic partnership.
The next big move in the geopolitical chessboard points to the partnership negotiating their bilateral relations with the US as a team.
Nothing could be more rational, considering they are regarded as the top two “threats” to the US, according to the National Security Strategy.
Talk about a major paradigm shift.


russia-insider--2020-05-08--'We'd Like to Do It': Trump Says US, Russia Looking Into Moving Ahead on Arms Control Deal

Following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday , US President Donald Trump indicated the two countries are ready to discuss arms control agreements .
Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday he and Putin were both interested in discussion new arms control agreements .
`` We are talking about arms control with Russia and we will go forward with that and we are talking about it very seriously , '' Trump said .
`` They 'd like to do it and we 'd like to do it . ''
Earlier in the day , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their phone call , saying , “ President Trump reaffirmed that the United States is committed to effective arms control that includes not only Russia , but also China , and looks forward to future discussions to avoid a costly arms race . ''
This mirrors what US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last month after the latter indicated a willingness to discuss extending the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty ( New START ) , which expires next year .
The agreement limits the number of different @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russia may construct .
While the US and Russia each control thousands of nuclear weapons , China is believed to have just 300 - enough only to deter attack , according to Beijing .
No mention was made , however , of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces ( INF ) Treaty abandoned by the United States last year amid claims Russia had broken the agreement .
Since the treaty officially lapsed in August 2019 , the US has pushed ahead with a series of missiles with ranges that would violate the INF Treaty were @ @ @ @ @

© Wikipedia / George Chernilevsky
Following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, US President Donald Trump indicated the two countries are ready to discuss arms control agreements.
Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday he and Putin were both interested in discussion new arms control agreements.
"We are talking about arms control with Russia and we will go forward with that and we are talking about it very seriously," Trump said. "They'd like to do it and we'd like to do it."
Earlier in the day, the White House released a statement about their phone call, saying, “President Trump reaffirmed that the United States is committed to effective arms control that includes not only Russia, but also China, and looks forward to future discussions to avoid a costly arms race."
This mirrors what US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last month after the latter indicated a willingness to discuss extending the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which expires next year. The agreement limits the number of different types of nuclear weapons the US and Russia may construct.
While the US and Russia each control thousands of nuclear weapons, China is believed to have just 300 - enough only to deter attack, according to Beijing.