buzzfeed--2020-10-30--People Can Vote Without A Mask in Almost Every State

While many state election officials acknowledged that allowing people to vote mask-free could create unsafe conditions at polling sites — some of which have closed in recent weeks due to outbreaks — some said their state ’ s laws don ’ t allow election officials to deny someone the right to vote based on wearing or not wearing a mask .
Others cited the US Constitution .
Arizona Gov .
Doug Ducey has been clear that “ no mitigation strategies should impede a citizen 's First Amendment rights — no voter should be turned away on Election Day , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all 50 states and Washington , DC , whether election officials would deny someone access to in-person voting if they failed to wear a mask .
While the unprecedented dilemma might appear highly partisan , in reality , the vast majority of states , red and blue , have come to the same conclusion : No , they would not .
Nearly every state in the country — including many that are under strict statewide mask mandates and facing alarming rates of new coronavirus infections — will allow people who refuse to wear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stations , according to a BuzzFeed News survey .
Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab said earlier this month , “ Exercising one ’ s fundamental right to vote is not , and should not be , contingent upon whether or not they choose to wear a mask.
” Oregon and Washington , DC , are taking the hardest line leading up to the election .
Oregon was the singular state that told BuzzFeed News it would bar maskless people from voting in person .
But the state is in a unique position @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has for over 20 years .
However , the state does have county election offices where people can use a privacy booth to vote and masks are required inside , said Andrea Chiapella , legislative director for Oregon ’ s secretary of state .
“ No mask , no entry into any indoor space in the state , ” she clarified .
Four other states — Colorado , Washington , Hawaii , and Utah — administer elections by mail .
But those states told BuzzFeed News that in-person voters are encouraged to wear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if they don ’ t .
Washington , DC , said that voters who won ’ t wear masks can use curbside voting services , allowing them to vote from their cars .
If those aren ’ t available at their voting center , they ’ ll have to find a place where it is .
If they refuse to leave , they ’ re out of luck .
“ Let 's hope it does n't come to that , ” said Nick Jacobs , a public information officer for the DC Board @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , “ we wo n't let you in , ” Jacobs confirmed .
Just two states , Montana and Missouri , insisted that the decision to enforce masks at the polls was up to each jurisdiction or county .
( Other states also did so at first , but later clarified that individual areas could not deny people their right to vote . )
Unsurprisingly , some states seemed loath to admit people would be allowed to vote without a mask .
New York Gov .
Andrew Cuomo signed an executive order this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ face coverings at the polls for anyone over age 2 or medically able .
But New York ’ s election policies make clear that voters who don ’ t fit that criteria and still wo n't wear masks will be able to cast their vote .
“ If a voter refuses to wear a mask , poll workers should consider providing the voter the opportunity to cast a ballot using any alternative voting locations or methods available at the poll site , if available , ” joint guidelines from the state ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in June state .
“ Otherwise , the voter should be allowed to vote normally , and poll workers should follow safety and cleaning protocols.
” Legal battles have played out over this dispute from Wisconsin to Minnesota .
Earlier this year , Texas NAACP and Mi Familia Vota , a national Latino organization , sued Texas , which is currently under a statewide mask mandate but created an exemption for polling stations .
On Friday , the 5th Circuit upheld the exemption , allowing Texans to vote or work at polling locations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Wednesday ruling from US District Judge Jason Pulliam in San Antonio , who had ruled that the mask exemption “ creates a discriminatory burden on Black and Latino voters.
” Pullman had written that the plaintiffs argued not requiring masks would force voters “ to make an unacceptable choice with respect to the 2020 election : exercising their right to vote - or - protecting their own health and lives and that of their loved ones and community by staying home.
” '' We shouldn ’ t have to choose between risking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right to vote , '' Kristian Ramos , a Democratic strategist who specializes in the Latino vote , told BuzzFeed News ahead of Friday ’ s ruling .
In a statement , the president of the Texas NAACP said the group had “ received reports of poll watchers who were using their maskless presence to approach and intimidate minority voters.
” The Texas attorney general ’ s office had argued that the majority of states don ’ t require masks at polling places and said the “ unprecedented ” injunction to require masks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Texas voters , and force local election officials to divert scarce resources from important tasks.
” The governor ’ s mask exemption for voters and poll workers was meant to “ protect important rights such as the right to vote , ensuring that no Texan would be turned away from the polls over having to wear a mask , ” the state said in its filing .
If masks were required , “ countless Texas citizens ” would face a choice : “ wear a mask , or else lose the right to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ law professor at Loyola Law School , said it was “ entirely constitutional ” to turn people away if they refuse to wear a mask .
The Supreme Court says that it evaluates alleged burdens on the vote by weighing the degree of the burden against the magnitude of the state ’ s justification for the imposition , he explained .
Since the courts , including the Supreme Court , have approved state restrictions “ far more burdensome than the comparative cost of wearing a mask , with far less justification than the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” a mask requirement “ is easily constitutional , ” he said .
If you have a news tip , we ’ d like to hear from you .
Reach out to us via one of our tip line channels .
“ If you are a person who just doesn ’ t want to wear a mask because you think it ’ s your constitutional right , I strongly think you should be turned away , ” said Rosie Davis , whose mother died of COVID-19 in a Texas nursing home in May @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no mask mandate there , said Davis , who is now a member of COVID Survivors for Change .
Since then , some polling stations in her state have had to temporarily shut down because workers tested positive for COVID-19 , she said , pointing to outbreaks in Lewisville and Tarrant County , Texas .
She will be voting for Biden next week , even though she doesn ’ t usually vote .
“ Losing my mom from COVID is what fueled me to vote this year , ” she said .
She @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for hours if necessary , but wishes she didn ’ t have to risk infection in the process .
Just because states won ’ t prevent maskless voters from entering polling stations doesn ’ t mean they want them there .
Many states are doing all they can to prevent what one state election official said was a “ worst-case scenario ” — voters refusing to wear masks and insisting on voting indoors .
Poll workers are often senior citizens at higher risk of serious illness or death from the coronavirus .
Maskless @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Fifteen states and DC told BuzzFeed News that poll workers were required to wear masks on the job , while others did n't specify or said the same rules applied to voters and poll workers alike — masks are encouraged , not required .
As a rise in COVID-19 cases nationwide leads to spikes across the country , most states said they would provide polling locations with extra masks for voters who didn ’ t bring their own , along with other personal protective equipment such as gloves , plus hand sanitizer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markers .
Many states will offer voters who won ’ t wear masks the ability to vote outdoors , from their cars , or in other secure areas — options that are often already available to people with disabilities or mobility concerns .
Others said they ’ d just try to get those people out of the room as soon as possible .
“ If someone comes in not wearing a mask , we ’ re treating that as a political statement , ” said Jacob Gansert , a coordinator for the Rhode @ @ @ @ @ @ @ someone comes in and has a big political sign we would ask them to vote quickly and leave to not influence other voters , and we ’ re treating masks the same way.
” In Minnesota , voters who decline to wear a mask or vote outside will still be allowed to vote , but will have their name recorded “ as in violation of the Governor ’ s mask requirement and reported to the appropriate authorities , ” a spokesperson said .
In September , Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon told @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refuse to wear masks could potentially be subject to a $ 100 fine .
A spokesperson for Maryland ’ s State Board of Elections told BuzzFeed News that someone who refused to wear a mask or use the provisional voting process outside of the voting room would still “ be permitted to vote.
” But earlier this week , a Harford County , Maryland , man was arrested at an early-voting precinct after doing just that , according to a Facebook post by the county sheriff , which said the man repeatedly refused @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wear a mask .
He was charged with violating a state emergency order and trespassing .
The man “ was not banned from the location , and is still able to cast his ballot , ” the post noted .
Some activists raised concerns about how states would enforce mask mandates at the polls , given that while minority groups , especially Black people , are at increased risk from COVID-19 , they are also more likely to be harmed by police .
“ Any sort of mask mandate is always going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ institutions enforcing those rules are inherently racist , ” said Tyler McFadden , executive director of the National Voter Protection Action Fund .
“ Whenever those rules are enforced , it affects Black people like me.
“

Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab said earlier this month, “Exercising one’s fundamental right to vote is not, and should not be, contingent upon whether or not they choose to wear a mask.”
Oregon and Washington, DC, are taking the hardest line leading up to the election. Oregon was the singular state that told BuzzFeed News it would bar maskless people from voting in person. But the state is in a unique position: Oregon votes entirely by mail and has for over 20 years. However, the state does have county election offices where people can use a privacy booth to vote and masks are required inside, said Andrea Chiapella, legislative director for Oregon’s secretary of state.
“No mask, no entry into any indoor space in the state,” she clarified.
Four other states — Colorado, Washington, Hawaii, and Utah — administer elections by mail. But those states told BuzzFeed News that in-person voters are encouraged to wear masks but would not be turned away if they don’t.
Washington, DC, said that voters who won’t wear masks can use curbside voting services, allowing them to vote from their cars. If those aren’t available at their voting center, they’ll have to find a place where it is. If they refuse to leave, they’re out of luck.
“Let's hope it doesn't come to that,” said Nick Jacobs, a public information officer for the DC Board of Elections. But if it does, “we won't let you in,” Jacobs confirmed.
Just two states, Montana and Missouri, insisted that the decision to enforce masks at the polls was up to each jurisdiction or county. (Other states also did so at first, but later clarified that individual areas could not deny people their right to vote.)
Unsurprisingly, some states seemed loath to admit people would be allowed to vote without a mask.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo signed an executive order this summer prior to the June primaries requiring face coverings at the polls for anyone over age 2 or medically able. But New York’s election policies make clear that voters who don’t fit that criteria and still won't wear masks will be able to cast their vote.
“If a voter refuses to wear a mask, poll workers should consider providing the voter the opportunity to cast a ballot using any alternative voting locations or methods available at the poll site, if available,” joint guidelines from the state’s elections board and department of health released in June state. “Otherwise, the voter should be allowed to vote normally, and poll workers should follow safety and cleaning protocols.”
Legal battles have played out over this dispute from Wisconsin to Minnesota. Earlier this year, Texas NAACP and Mi Familia Vota, a national Latino organization, sued Texas, which is currently under a statewide mask mandate but created an exemption for polling stations. On Friday, the 5th Circuit upheld the exemption, allowing Texans to vote or work at polling locations without a mask. The court overturned a Wednesday ruling from US District Judge Jason Pulliam in San Antonio, who had ruled that the mask exemption “creates a discriminatory burden on Black and Latino voters.” Pullman had written that the plaintiffs argued not requiring masks would force voters “to make an unacceptable choice with respect to the 2020 election: exercising their right to vote - or - protecting their own health and lives and that of their loved ones and community by staying home.”
"We shouldn’t have to choose between risking our lives and using our constitutionally protected right to vote," Kristian Ramos, a Democratic strategist who specializes in the Latino vote, told BuzzFeed News ahead of Friday’s ruling.
In a statement, the president of the Texas NAACP said the group had “received reports of poll watchers who were using their maskless presence to approach and intimidate minority voters.”
The Texas attorney general’s office had argued that the majority of states don’t require masks at polling places and said the “unprecedented” injunction to require masks would “create extensive confusion, disenfranchise Texas voters, and force local election officials to divert scarce resources from important tasks.”
The governor’s mask exemption for voters and poll workers was meant to “protect important rights such as the right to vote, ensuring that no Texan would be turned away from the polls over having to wear a mask,” the state said in its filing. If masks were required, “countless Texas citizens” would face a choice: “wear a mask, or else lose the right to vote.”
Justin Levitt, a constitutional law professor at Loyola Law School, said it was “entirely constitutional” to turn people away if they refuse to wear a mask. The Supreme Court says that it evaluates alleged burdens on the vote by weighing the degree of the burden against the magnitude of the state’s justification for the imposition, he explained. Since the courts, including the Supreme Court, have approved state restrictions “far more burdensome than the comparative cost of wearing a mask, with far less justification than the compelling interest in physical public safety,” a mask requirement “is easily constitutional,” he said.
If you have a news tip, we’d like to hear from you. Reach out to us via one of our tip line channels.
“If you are a person who just doesn’t want to wear a mask because you think it’s your constitutional right, I strongly think you should be turned away,” said Rosie Davis, whose mother died of COVID-19 in a Texas nursing home in May. At the time, there was no mask mandate there, said Davis, who is now a member of COVID Survivors for Change. Since then, some polling stations in her state have had to temporarily shut down because workers tested positive for COVID-19, she said, pointing to outbreaks in Lewisville and Tarrant County, Texas.
She will be voting for Biden next week, even though she doesn’t usually vote. “Losing my mom from COVID is what fueled me to vote this year,” she said.
She’s ready to stand in line for hours if necessary, but wishes she didn’t have to risk infection in the process.
Just because states won’t prevent maskless voters from entering polling stations doesn’t mean they want them there. Many states are doing all they can to prevent what one state election official said was a “worst-case scenario” — voters refusing to wear masks and insisting on voting indoors. Poll workers are often senior citizens at higher risk of serious illness or death from the coronavirus. Maskless voters could put these workers in jeopardy.
Fifteen states and DC told BuzzFeed News that poll workers were required to wear masks on the job, while others didn't specify or said the same rules applied to voters and poll workers alike — masks are encouraged, not required.
As a rise in COVID-19 cases nationwide leads to spikes across the country, most states said they would provide polling locations with extra masks for voters who didn’t bring their own, along with other personal protective equipment such as gloves, plus hand sanitizer, social distancing placards, and floor markers. Many states will offer voters who won’t wear masks the ability to vote outdoors, from their cars, or in other secure areas — options that are often already available to people with disabilities or mobility concerns.
Others said they’d just try to get those people out of the room as soon as possible.
“If someone comes in not wearing a mask, we’re treating that as a political statement,” said Jacob Gansert, a coordinator for the Rhode Island Board of Elections. “If someone comes in and has a big political sign we would ask them to vote quickly and leave to not influence other voters, and we’re treating masks the same way.”
In Minnesota, voters who decline to wear a mask or vote outside will still be allowed to vote, but will have their name recorded “as in violation of the Governor’s mask requirement and reported to the appropriate authorities,” a spokesperson said. In September, Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon told local outlet MPR News that voters who refuse to wear masks could potentially be subject to a $100 fine.
A spokesperson for Maryland’s State Board of Elections told BuzzFeed News that someone who refused to wear a mask or use the provisional voting process outside of the voting room would still “be permitted to vote.” But earlier this week, a Harford County, Maryland, man was arrested at an early-voting precinct after doing just that, according to a Facebook post by the county sheriff, which said the man repeatedly refused “to comply” with directives to wear a mask. He was charged with violating a state emergency order and trespassing.
The man “was not banned from the location, and is still able to cast his ballot,” the post noted.
Some activists raised concerns about how states would enforce mask mandates at the polls, given that while minority groups, especially Black people, are at increased risk from COVID-19, they are also more likely to be harmed by police.
“Any sort of mask mandate is always going to oppress communities of color harder because the institutions enforcing those rules are inherently racist,” said Tyler McFadden, executive director of the National Voter Protection Action Fund. “Whenever those rules are enforced, it affects Black people like me.“


buzzfeed--2020-10-30--Texans Don’t Have To Wear A Mask At The Polls, A Federal Appeals Court Ruled

WASHINGTON — A federal appeals court ruled on Friday that Texans will not be required to wear a mask to vote or to work at a polling location if they don ’ t want to .
The US Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit granted Texas ’ s request to block an injunction entered by a federal judge in San Antonio who had ruled that the state 's mask exemption for polling sites imposed a “ discriminatory burden ” on the voting rights of Black and Latino voters .
Nearly every state will allow people to cast ballots in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a mask , according to a nationwide survey of state practices by BuzzFeed News , but voting rights groups and Texas voters took Texas to court for explicitly carving out polling locations from the state 's mask rules .
The appeals court found that Texas Gov .
Greg Abbott and Secretary of State Ruth Hughs were likely to win their argument that the lower court judge had `` improperly altered election rules on the eve of the election . ''
`` [ T ] he Governor and Sectary ’ s unrebutted evidence establishes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ midst of voting would create disparate treatment of voters , and significant confusion and difficulty for voters and poll workers , '' the three-judge panel wrote .

WASHINGTON — A federal appeals court ruled on Friday that Texans will not be required to wear a mask to vote or to work at a polling location if they don’t want to.
The US Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit granted Texas’s request to block an injunction entered by a federal judge in San Antonio who had ruled that the state's mask exemption for polling sites imposed a “discriminatory burden” on the voting rights of Black and Latino voters.
Nearly every state will allow people to cast ballots in person even if they refuse to wear a mask, according to a nationwide survey of state practices by BuzzFeed News, but voting rights groups and Texas voters took Texas to court for explicitly carving out polling locations from the state's mask rules.
The appeals court found that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Secretary of State Ruth Hughs were likely to win their argument that the lower court judge had "improperly altered election rules on the eve of the election."
"[T]he Governor and Sectary’s unrebutted evidence establishes that changing the election rules in the midst of voting would create disparate treatment of voters, and significant confusion and difficulty for voters and poll workers," the three-judge panel wrote.


buzzfeed--2020-10-30--Trump Saved Lindsey Graham. Now Trump Might Destroy Him.

A wave election , an unpopular president , and a peculiar far-right campaign financed by Democrats are putting one of the most famous Republican senators at risk of losing it all .
WASHINGTON — Four months ago , South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham easily won his Republican Party primary , and one of the great political transformations of modern times seemed to work out perfectly .
Today , he ’ s fighting for his career .
No one has personified the change of the GOP quite like Graham has .
He was once a passionate Trump critic , whose weakness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen as a little too willing to work with Democrats .
For a time , his 17-year seat was viewed as vulnerable to a far-right tea party–like primary challenger .
Then Donald Trump became president , and Lindsey Graham would never be the same .
Graham traded in his image as a pragmatic dealmaker to become a fiery and loyal MAGA soldier .
It worked .
While anti-Trump Republicans were drummed out of Congress through primaries or retirements , Graham excelled .
He was routinely seen golfing with Trump .
He helped deliver @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Supreme Court despite fierce opposition .
He was elevated to the powerful role of Senate Judiciary Committee chair .
In June , he won his primary without any serious challenge .
But now Graham is facing the possibility that it all comes crashing down .
He is battling the same phenomenon that ’ s hurting many Republicans this election year : After four years of embracing Trump , the party may be being dragged down by him .
Republicans have long accepted they won ’ t win back the House .
Of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reelection in 2020 , as many as 12 are in danger of losing .
Contrary to a Trump boost , many of them , like Graham , are polling lower than Trump .
That wasn ’ t supposed to matter in solidly red South Carolina , where Republicans have held Graham ’ s seat for over 50 years .
“ I ’ ve long believed that the Republican Party embracing Trump hurts the Republican Party , but it doesn ’ t hurt Donald Trump , ” said Terry Sullivan , a Republican political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rubio ’ s 2016 presidential campaign .
Graham ’ s opponent , Jaime Harrison , raised $ 57 million between July and September , more than any Senate candidate , running anywhere , in history .
Polls have shown Harrison within striking distance , making it one of the state ’ s first close Senate races since 2004 .
Over two weeks in September , Graham went on Fox News at least five times to plead with viewers to donate to his campaign .
It was surreal stuff .
“ I ’ m @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because they hate my guts , ” he said during an appearance on Fox & Friends .
His appeals have become so frequent that a recent one was cut off .
South Carolina will almost certainly vote for Trump as president , but that doesn ’ t seem to matter as much in 2020 as it did in 2016 .
Four years ago , Republican Senate candidates in key states like Florida , Wisconsin , Ohio , Pennsylvania , and Iowa all outperformed Trump .
But this year , the inverse is happening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consistently polling below the president .
Could Graham actually lose what has long been a safely red seat ?
Many strategists are skeptical .
Sullivan ran Republican Jim DeMint ’ s 2004 campaign for Senate in South Carolina , which was the state ’ s last competitive race .
Polls shortly before the election showed him tied with Democratic challenger Inez Tenenbaum .
He ended up winning by nearly 10 points .
“ What will happen is the Republican voters will be annoyed with who the candidate is , but then they will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sullivan .
“ Republican numbers get depressed , but those people don ’ t actually end up voting for Democrats .
They turn up and return home.
” Both Democrats and Republicans agree that the circumstances for Graham to lose would have to involve a wild card : a third-party candidate .
If you have a news tip , we ’ d like to hear from you .
Reach out to us via one of our tip line channels .
Unluckily for Graham , there just happens to be a far-right candidate on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign run by Democrats .
Bill Bledsoe , the Constitution Party candidate , isn ’ t campaigning , and he has denounced the campaign supporting him .
But his name is on the ballot .
In South Carolina , Bledsoe is being touted in TV ads and mailers funded by Democratic PACs and anti-Trump groups like the Lincoln Project to draw votes away from Graham .
This South Carolina Democratic Party webpage supposedly attacking the candidate for being “ 100 % pro-Trump , pro-gun , anti-abortion ” could easily be mistaken for Bledsoe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Loveday , former executive director of the South Carolina Democratic Party , estimates that as much as $ 15 million is being spent to promote Bledsoe ’ s unwitting candidacy .
“ It ’ s a trick out of the Republican playbook , so I ’ m proud of Democrats for finally doing it , ” she said .
Loveday said that this election is the “ perfect storm ” of circumstances that could cause Graham to lose .
She projects that if Bledsoe can pull greater than 3 % of the vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he ran for Senate in 2016 — then Harrison has a chance .
Loveday said Harrison would also need to get 30 % of white voters , and for Black voters to make up at least 30 % of the overall total .
That could allow for Harrison to squeak out a plurality win despite not getting a majority of votes , she said .
Loveday , who worked with Harrison at the state party , said that many Democrats have voted for Graham in the past , but his embrace of Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time .
And while she doesn ’ t expect Republicans to vote for Harrison , she said many die-hard Trump fans see Graham ’ s support for the president as phony and inauthentic ; she believes they won ’ t show up for him .
“ It ’ s the opposite of what people loved about Lindsey .
That ’ s the problem .
It ’ s the epitome of what Lindsey was not for so many years , ” she said .
“ He really made his own bed with this one.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Graham described then-candidate Trump as “ dangerous , ” “ absurd , ” “ stupid , ” and a “ kook.
” While campaigning in South Carolina in 2015 , Trump once called him an “ idiot ” and then proceeded to give out Graham ’ s cellphone number .
The two made peace before the election ; since then , Graham has been a rock-solid ally to the point of tweeting about how badly Trump beats him at golf .
By all accounts , Harrison has run an impressive campaign .
His @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump as they attack Graham for his clear conversion over the past four years , portraying him as someone who has lost his way and is not the politician he used to be .
A Harrison campaign spokesman told BuzzFeed News they see the race as a toss-up .
Graham ’ s campaign politely declined an interview request , citing a time crunch , and did not respond to emailed questions .
Republican strategists have also flagged Graham ’ s conversion to Trump as a possible weakness because it is seen as insincere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s supporters .
Joel Sawyer , former executive director for the South Carolina Republican Party , called Harrison ’ s campaign “ may be the best campaign [ he ’ s ] ever seen run in South Carolina , quite honestly.
” But he still doubts that it ’ s enough .
Sawyer said a Harrison victory could only result from a very unlikely combination of him outperforming Obama , a large number of Trump-voting Republicans opting not to vote in the Senate race , and Bledsoe pulling significant support as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ I think Jaime has a path , but it ’ s extremely narrow , and it would require several things to happen that have never happened before , ” he said .
If Graham does hold on , he could find himself returning to a Congress with far fewer Republicans .
States like Georgia and North Carolina , which were once solidly red , are rapidly turning purple .
If there is a mirror version of Lindsey Graham , it is arguably former South Carolina representative Mark Sanford .
While Graham @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him .
While Graham became the president ’ s trusted adviser and golf buddy , Sanford was the target of Trump ’ s angry tweets .
And while Graham ’ s career has reached new heights over the past four years , highlighted by leading the charge as chair of the Judiciary Committee on two successful Supreme Court nominations , Sanford ’ s has ended .
Trump endorsed Sanford ’ s 2018 MAGA-branded primary challenger , Katie Arrington .
Despite his profile as a longtime member of Congress and former governor , Sanford @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go on to lose the general election to Joe Cunningham , the first Democrat to win South Carolina ’ s 1st Congressional District in 40 years . )
In an interview with BuzzFeed News , Sanford declined to talk publicly about Graham ’ s decisions , other than to say he was clairvoyant when , in 2016 , Graham predicted that selecting Trump as their presidential candidate would lead to electoral destruction .
“ Everybody ’ s got to do their calculus on their own , based on their beliefs and value system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he can ’ t see Trump or Graham losing in South Carolina .
“ All the money in the world doesn ’ t change demographics , ” he said .
However , he does think his party ’ s embrace of Trump will not only be “ disastrous ” this election , but it risks alienating an entire generation of young people .
Trump ’ s intraparty critics are almost all out of Congress now .
People like former representative Charlie Dent and former senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake all retired .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ sits as a Libertarian .
Sanford said that after Trump leaves office , he doesn ’ t know what it will mean to be a Republican anymore , and the people who remain in Congress if the president loses will have a period in the wilderness where they ’ ll have to do some soul-searching .
“ I think we ’ ve been marching towards our own political extinction , though it has entailed a lot of self-preservation for individual candidacies in the process , ” Sanford said .
He noted that it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans who have refused to take Lindsey Graham ’ s path and enthusiastically get behind Trump .
“ But , ” he added , “ I sleep very comfortably at night.
” ●

WASHINGTON — Four months ago, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham easily won his Republican Party primary, and one of the great political transformations of modern times seemed to work out perfectly. Today, he’s fighting for his career.
No one has personified the change of the GOP quite like Graham has. He was once a passionate Trump critic, whose weakness was from the right; he was seen as a little too willing to work with Democrats. For a time, his 17-year seat was viewed as vulnerable to a far-right tea party–like primary challenger.
Then Donald Trump became president, and Lindsey Graham would never be the same.
Graham traded in his image as a pragmatic dealmaker to become a fiery and loyal MAGA soldier. It worked. While anti-Trump Republicans were drummed out of Congress through primaries or retirements, Graham excelled. He was routinely seen golfing with Trump. He helped deliver Trump nominee Brett Kavanaugh a seat on the Supreme Court despite fierce opposition. He was elevated to the powerful role of Senate Judiciary Committee chair. In June, he won his primary without any serious challenge.
But now Graham is facing the possibility that it all comes crashing down. He is battling the same phenomenon that’s hurting many Republicans this election year: After four years of embracing Trump, the party may be being dragged down by him. Republicans have long accepted they won’t win back the House. Of the 23 incumbent GOP senators up for reelection in 2020, as many as 12 are in danger of losing. Contrary to a Trump boost, many of them, like Graham, are polling lower than Trump. That wasn’t supposed to matter in solidly red South Carolina, where Republicans have held Graham’s seat for over 50 years.


buzzfeed--2020-10-30--This Is How Chicago Police Are Getting Ready For Election Night Protests

Newly released documents and videos show the military tactics that could be used .
Regardless of the results of the 2020 election , it ’ s possible that the United States will see civil unrest in its aftermath .
Some activists fear that police will use the same violent tactics that were used to respond to the Black Lives Matter protests that followed the deaths of Breonna Taylor and George Floyd earlier this year .
To find out how police are preparing to respond to postelection protests , BuzzFeed News filed public records requests with six major departments .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ BuzzFeed News has journalists around the US bringing you trustworthy stories on the 2020 elections .
To help keep this news free , become a member .
BuzzFeed News received over 100 pages of documents from the Chicago Police Department , as well as a video , showing how police in the most populous city in the Midwest are preparing for unrest on election night .
In many ways , Chicago stands in for any large American city since the materials use official protest guidance from the Department of Homeland Security and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Chicago .
A Chicago police spokesperson told BuzzFeed News that every sworn officer will be on duty on Nov. 3 into the morning of Nov. 4 .
In a press conference on Oct. 15 , Chicago Police Superintendent David Brown said officers have done several workshops preparing for Election Day .
It ’ s unclear if these workshops incorporated the material obtained by BuzzFeed News .
“ We 're trying as best we can to anticipate any hazard that might happen — including a weather hazard , snow might happen in our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protests [ or ] embedded agitators that may loot , cause violence , or destroy property , ” Brown said .
One 64-page document , titled `` Crowd Control and Behavior , '' contains the outline for an eight-hour course in which officers were taught how to control protests and arrest demonstrators .
“ The presence of organization within a team can intimidate the opposition , ” it says .
“ Using team tactics has a military type advantage over larger organized groups.
” In addition to the documents , Chicago police released @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to push and thrust batons at protesters .
One section of the `` Crowd Control and Behavior '' document outlines strategies for a “ Mobile Field Force unit , ” a group of police officers who carry weapons ( like batons and pepper spray ) and use platoon-style tactics to address “ civil disorder.
” “ A military bearing demonstrates to the protesters that the MFF is a well-disciplined and highly trained group , ” the document says .
The document does note that police must be aware of people ’ s First @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But if the public peace is disturbed , police have the legal right to make arrests .
The `` Crowd Control and Behavior '' document notes that “ mob action ” is defined under Illinois law as “ disturbing the public peace ” or damaging property while in a group .
Military-style tactics are not unusual within US police departments , and the document covers several different formations that police may use to control crowds .
The documents refer to a group of police officers as a platoon , which is led @ @ @ @ @ @ @ formations include column , skirmish , wedge , and encirclement .
The `` Crowd Control and Behavior '' document also defines several types of demonstrator groups and identifies many by name .
It labels ACC , Globalize This , South Dakota Radicals , Food Not Bombs , Black Cat Collective , Black Cross , North Eastern Federation of Anarcho-Communists , and Act Now to Stop War and End Racism ( ANSWER ) as “ anarchist ” groups .
It defines anarchists as those who “ believe private property is theft , state property @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corporate interest , and that both must be destroyed for the creation of a society based on mutual aid and individual liberty.
” The `` Crowd Control and Behavior '' document says that these protesters try to manipulate the media and provoke police by prominently positioning children and older people “ to gain sympathy and negative portrayals of police dispersal and arrest actions.
” It also claims that protesters accuse the police of misconduct “ to avoid arrest and gain the sympathy of the media and bystanders.
” The document advises that some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ catapults , incendiary devices , impact weapons , mirrors , hazardous substances , battering devices , fireworks and rockets , weapons of mass destruction , suspicious packages , golf balls , bottles , cans of soup , and pieces of concrete as weapons during protests .
It ’ s common to see legal observers , such as lawyers or law students , at a protest .
But the document says that legal teams may try to “ intimidate ” police by telling them that their “ tactics are illegal.
” The document notes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pepper spray on protesters who are “ passively resisting ” police officers , even if they aren ’ t doing anything violent .
If you have a news tip , we ’ d like to hear from you .
Reach out to us via one of our tip line channels .

Regardless of the results of the 2020 election, it’s possible that the United States will see civil unrest in its aftermath. Some activists fear that police will use the same violent tactics that were used to respond to the Black Lives Matter protests that followed the deaths of Breonna Taylor and George Floyd earlier this year.
To find out how police are preparing to respond to postelection protests, BuzzFeed News filed public records requests with six major departments.
So far, only one has responded.
BuzzFeed News has journalists around the US bringing you trustworthy stories on the 2020 elections. To help keep this news free, become a member.
BuzzFeed News received over 100 pages of documents from the Chicago Police Department, as well as a video, showing how police in the most populous city in the Midwest are preparing for unrest on election night. In many ways, Chicago stands in for any large American city since the materials use official protest guidance from the Department of Homeland Security and the US Army that aren’t particular to Chicago.
A Chicago police spokesperson told BuzzFeed News that every sworn officer will be on duty on Nov. 3 into the morning of Nov. 4.
In a press conference on Oct. 15, Chicago Police Superintendent David Brown said officers have done several workshops preparing for Election Day. It’s unclear if these workshops incorporated the material obtained by BuzzFeed News.


buzzfeed--2020-10-30--Trump And Republican Senators Are Losing Votes Due To Coronavirus Deaths, A New Study Says

A new study has found that , in states with rising COVID-19 deaths , voter support for Trump and Republican senators has dropped by margins big enough to swing some tight races .
States with higher coronavirus death rates may see declining voter support for President Donald Trump and other Republican candidates , possibly by margins large enough to swing tight election races , a new study has found .
Less than a week away from an election that many view as a referendum on the White House ’ s handling of the pandemic , coronavirus cases are now rising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are spiking , and there are worrying signs that deaths are increasing again .
The new study , which polled hundreds of thousands of Americans across the country , found that when a state ’ s COVID-19 death rate doubled within a month ’ s time , Trump ’ s approval rating dropped by 0.5 % , independent of all other factors .
The decline in support , reported in the journal Science Advances on Friday , mirrored the effects that casualties of the Korean War , Vietnam War , and Iraq War @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with voters .
Led by political scientist Christopher Warshaw of George Washington University , the researchers also asked whether people changed which candidates they were planning to vote for .
Across states , every monthly doubling of coronavirus death rates caused a 0.37 % drop in the number of people who said they planned to vote for Trump , the study found .
The drop in support for Republican senators was even steeper , at 0.79 % .
These small margins could be big enough to shift close races .
In 2016 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as Michigan was just 0.23 % — and some swing states in 2020 , such as Iowa , appear to be just as tight .
The new analysis found that the trend was particularly visible in swing states such as Michigan , Wisconsin , Pennsylvania , New Hampshire , Arizona , and Florida , with the potential to sway both the presidential election and US Senate races .
Local unemployment usually plays a pivotal role in determining who wins votes in a presidential election , according to a study of economic impacts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in August on which Warshaw also was a coauthor .
The new study suggests that COVID-19 deaths may play an equally important role .
“ The president himself declared he was a ‘ wartime president ’ at the start of the pandemic , and we are seeing death tolls above the Vietnam War and Korean War , ones we have only seen in World War II , ” Warshaw told BuzzFeed News .
“ Voters are seeing things that way too.
” While the president has repeatedly declared that the nation is “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to live with ” the virus , nearly a quarter-million Americans have died in the coronavirus pandemic .
As deaths and cases continue to rise , Trump has made the false claim that the numbers are wrong — driven by increases in testing and corrupt hospitals .
Medical groups have roundly dismissed his allegations as false .
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has declared that Trump was waving the “ white flag of defeat ” to the virus .
The new study relied on survey responses from more than 300,000 people nationwide taken @ @ @ @ @ @ @ + UCLA Nationscape Survey , as well as fatality data collected by the New York Times , and American Community Survey county population data .
To estimate how COVID-19 deaths have impacted changing support for Trump and Republicans , the researchers analyzed changes in polls as mortality numbers grew while controlling for other effects , such as unemployment and protests .
They first estimated statewide relationships by looking at changes in polls conducted between June 1 and July 2 of this year .
They next drilled down to the county level in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expert Douglas Kriner , who was not part of the study , told BuzzFeed News that the approach was methodologically sound and mirrored past studies on wartime casualty effects on voters .
“ The effect sizes aren ’ t massive — but given the razor-thin margins in contemporary American electoral politics , even small effects could be pivotal , ” said Kriner .
“ Moreover , given how polarized the electorate is , small effect sizes aren ’ t surprising.
” The effect of COVID-19 deaths seemed to sway Republican and independent voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , perhaps because Democratic voters had already made up their mind on Trump and the Republican Party .
“ These findings are not at all surprising , but they do reflect a potentially important shift , ” Shannon Monnat , a sociologist at Syracuse University who documented a move toward Trump in the 2016 election in counties most affected by drug overdose deaths , told BuzzFeed News .
“ As we have started to see outbreaks in many parts of rural America , people are finally coming to see that rural areas are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less capacity to cope with it.
” COVID-19 is now disproportionately hitting rural areas that Trump and Republicans rely on for support .
The worst virus outbreaks have shifted from cities to rural counties in the current surge of cases , overwhelming small hospitals , according to a New York Times report last week .
And new weekly coronavirus deaths are now higher in counties that voted for Trump in 2016 , compared to ones that went for Hillary Clinton , according to an Economic Innovation Group report released Thursday .
From a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Trump administration seems to have bet too many political chips on the economy , rather than on trying to limit the casualties of a deadly virus .
“ The administration miscalculated that it would be possible to get the economy moving again without controlling the pandemic , ” he said .
“ It seems pretty clear now that the best way to jump-start the economy would have been an early mask mandate , widespread testing , and other aggressive COVID mitigation measures in the spring.
” Trump and the Republican Senate probably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ funding to support American families and businesses during an unprecedented economic downturn , Warshaw added .
He acknowledged that the election is still a week away and will ultimately be decided by the voters .
But if Trump loses a close race , it ’ s possible that people will argue for a long time whether the pandemic was the deciding factor .
In that case , Warshaw noted , Biden was leading Trump in nationwide polls at the start of the year , even before the pandemic started .
“ That has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” he said .

The new study relied on survey responses from more than 300,000 people nationwide taken from 2019 to 2020 by the DemocracyFund + UCLA Nationscape Survey, as well as fatality data collected by the New York Times, and American Community Survey county population data.
To estimate how COVID-19 deaths have impacted changing support for Trump and Republicans, the researchers analyzed changes in polls as mortality numbers grew while controlling for other effects, such as unemployment and protests. They first estimated statewide relationships by looking at changes in polls conducted between June 1 and July 2 of this year. They next drilled down to the county level in a week-by-week analysis.
Cornell University public opinion expert Douglas Kriner, who was not part of the study, told BuzzFeed News that the approach was methodologically sound and mirrored past studies on wartime casualty effects on voters.
“The effect sizes aren’t massive — but given the razor-thin margins in contemporary American electoral politics, even small effects could be pivotal,” said Kriner. “Moreover, given how polarized the electorate is, small effect sizes aren’t surprising.”
The effect of COVID-19 deaths seemed to sway Republican and independent voters more, according to the study authors, perhaps because Democratic voters had already made up their mind on Trump and the Republican Party.
“These findings are not at all surprising, but they do reflect a potentially important shift,” Shannon Monnat, a sociologist at Syracuse University who documented a move toward Trump in the 2016 election in counties most affected by drug overdose deaths, told BuzzFeed News. “As we have started to see outbreaks in many parts of rural America, people are finally coming to see that rural areas are not immune, and they have even less capacity to cope with it.”
COVID-19 is now disproportionately hitting rural areas that Trump and Republicans rely on for support. The worst virus outbreaks have shifted from cities to rural counties in the current surge of cases, overwhelming small hospitals, according to a New York Times report last week. And new weekly coronavirus deaths are now higher in counties that voted for Trump in 2016, compared to ones that went for Hillary Clinton, according to an Economic Innovation Group report released Thursday.
From a political science standpoint, Warshaw said, the Trump administration seems to have bet too many political chips on the economy, rather than on trying to limit the casualties of a deadly virus.
“The administration miscalculated that it would be possible to get the economy moving again without controlling the pandemic,” he said. “It seems pretty clear now that the best way to jump-start the economy would have been an early mask mandate, widespread testing, and other aggressive COVID mitigation measures in the spring.”
Trump and the Republican Senate probably should have passed more aggressive economic stimulus funding to support American families and businesses during an unprecedented economic downturn, Warshaw added.
He acknowledged that the election is still a week away and will ultimately be decided by the voters. But if Trump loses a close race, it’s possible that people will argue for a long time whether the pandemic was the deciding factor. In that case, Warshaw noted, Biden was leading Trump in nationwide polls at the start of the year, even before the pandemic started.
“That has stayed true for the whole race,” he said.
Peter Aldhous contributed reporting for this story.


buzzfeed--2020-10-30--Trump And His Son Are Lying About Coronavirus Deaths — Again

President Donald Trump and his son Donald Trump Jr. are radically downplaying the number of new coronavirus-related deaths in the US , with the election just days away and COVID-19 cases surging across the country .
“ I went through the CDC data because I kept hearing about new infections , but I was like , why aren ’ t they talking about deaths ?
Because the number is almost nothing , ” Trump Jr. said on Fox News ’ The Ingraham Angle Thursday night .
“ If you look at my Instagram , it ’ s gone to almost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a positive way .
We 've gotten a hold of it.
” On Thursday , the country reported more than 90,000 coronavirus cases in one day for the first time since the pandemic was declared and roughly 1,000 COVID-19 deaths .
While doctors have gotten better at treating COVID-19 , meaning a smaller percentage of those who are hospitalized end up dying , deaths are already rising slowly and are expected to climb more in the coming weeks .
Increases in deaths are typically reported weeks after cases start to rise , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and die .
Early Friday morning , the president echoed his son ’ s argument , tweeting , “ More Testing equals more Cases ” and “ Deaths WAY DOWN .
”

President Donald Trump and his son Donald Trump Jr. are radically downplaying the number of new coronavirus-related deaths in the US, with the election just days away and COVID-19 cases surging across the country.
“I went through the CDC data because I kept hearing about new infections, but I was like, why aren’t they talking about deaths? Because the number is almost nothing,” Trump Jr. said on Fox News’ The Ingraham Angle Thursday night. “If you look at my Instagram, it’s gone to almost nothing. We are outperforming Europe in a positive way. We've gotten a hold of it.”
On Thursday, the country reported more than 90,000 coronavirus cases in one day for the first time since the pandemic was declared and roughly 1,000 COVID-19 deaths.
While doctors have gotten better at treating COVID-19, meaning a smaller percentage of those who are hospitalized end up dying, deaths are already rising slowly and are expected to climb more in the coming weeks. Increases in deaths are typically reported weeks after cases start to rise, as people who are severely ill become hospitalized and die.
Early Friday morning, the president echoed his son’s argument, tweeting, “More Testing equals more Cases” and “Deaths WAY DOWN.”


buzzfeed--2020-10-31--Women Are Sharing What They Used To Masturbate With Before Knowing What Sex Was, And It's A Doozy

So , she asked other women who also masturbated when they were younger to share the weird things they used @ @ @ @ @ a million views , and tons of women have flooded the comment section with hilarious @ @

So, she asked other women who also masturbated when they were younger to share the weird things they used. Her video has nearly a million views, and tons of women have flooded the comment section with hilarious responses:


buzzfeed--2020-10-31--This Groomer's "Things We Don't Tell You" Video Is Something All Dog Owners Need To Know

BuzzFeed spoke to Vanessa , who said she made the video to show that an `` end of life '' @ @ @ @ @ day at the spa .
Her video is a message to owners of all dogs @ @ @ @ @ weak to be groomed — not just those getting their very last groom .
`` @ @ @ @ @ I ’ ve had to inform three clients that their pet can no longer handle @ @ @ @ @ very hard time coming up with the words and courage to tell the owners that @ @ @ @ @ a client they can longer groom their pet , it is essentially us telling them @ @ @ @ @ the end of their life .
It ’ s not an easy thing to tell @ @ @ @ @ time to end their pet 's suffering , and as a groomer , I don @ @ @ @ @ ’ s my right to do that , '' explained Vanessa .

BuzzFeed spoke to Vanessa, who said she made the video to show that an "end of life" groom is not a relaxing day at the spa. Her video is a message to owners of all dogs who are too old and weak to be groomed — not just those getting their very last groom. "Over this last month, I’ve had to inform three clients that their pet can no longer handle grooming. I had a very hard time coming up with the words and courage to tell the owners that. When a groomer tells a client they can longer groom their pet, it is essentially us telling them that their pet is at the end of their life. It’s not an easy thing to tell someone that it’s time to end their pet's suffering, and as a groomer, I don’t always feel it’s my right to do that," explained Vanessa.


buzzfeed--2020-10-31--Texans Don’t Have To Wear A Mask At The Polls, A Federal Appeals Court Ruled


buzzfeed--2020-10-31--This Scary Statistic Predicts Growing US Political Violence — Whatever Happens On Election Day

Two researchers claim that a single number they call the “ political stress indicator ” can warn when societies are at risk of erupting into violence .
It ’ s spiking in the US , just like it did before the Civil War .
Many Americans are clinging to the idea that if Joe Biden wins the presidential election , calm can return to a nation riven by protests and rattled by President Donald Trump ’ s authoritarian rhetoric .
Not so fast , caution two academics who claim they have devised a measure of political instability that shows that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keg that is waiting to blow , even if a Biden landslide means that Trump has little choice but to step aside .
“ The tendency is to blame Trump , but I don ’ t really agree with that , ” Peter Turchin , an evolutionary anthropologist at the University of Connecticut who studies the forces that drive political instability , told BuzzFeed News .
“ Trump is really not the deep structural cause.
” The most dangerous element in the mix , argue Turchin and George Mason University sociologist Jack Goldstone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on society .
They believe they have a model that explains how inequality escalates and leads to political instability : Worsened by elites who monopolize economic gains , narrow the path to social mobility , and resist taxation , inequality ends up undermining state institutions while fomenting distrust and resentment .
Building on Goldstone ’ s work showing that revolutions tend to follow periods of population growth and urbanization , Turchin has developed a statistic called the political stress indicator , or PSI .
It incorporates measures of wage stagnation , national debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government , urbanization , and the age structure of the population .
Turchin raised warning signs of a coming storm a decade ago , predicting that instability would peak in the years around 2020 .
“ In the United States , we have stagnating or declining real wages , a growing gap between rich and poor , overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees , and exploding public debt , ” he wrote , in a letter to the journal Nature .
“ Historically , such developments have served as leading indicators of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nation in turmoil , Turchin ’ s prediction seems remarkably prescient .
We live in a pandemic hellscape that has disproportionately harmed Black and brown Americans and those living in poverty .
We have widespread civil unrest over racial injustice .
And we are hurtling toward an election in which Trump is stoking unfounded fears of voter fraud and refusing to commit to a peaceful transition of power .
In August , Turchin gave himself a pat on the back for his predictive ability with an analysis showing a significant rise in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last 10 years .
But he and Goldstone fear that much worse is to come .
The political stress indicator for the US is rising rapidly , much like it did before the Civil War .
When Goldstone talks about America ’ s darkest days in the 1860s , he provocatively calls it the “ First Civil War.
” He fears that we may be on the way to a second one , with the 2020 election serving as a potential “ fire-starter ” event .
Goldstone has some credentials in predicting conflict @ @ @ @ @ @ @ US military ’ s ill-fated efforts to support UN intervention in Somalia ’ s civil war , which led to the downing of two Black Hawk helicopters and the gruesome spectacle of a dead US soldier being dragged through the streets , Goldstone was tapped by the CIA to help lead the State Failure Task Force .
This group of academic social scientists was asked to identify factors that predict when a nation is likely to spiral into chaos .
The task force ’ s initial report , published in 1995 , identified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whether a state would fail within the next two years in about two-thirds of cases : high infant mortality , low openness to international trade , and level of democracy .
On the last measure , partial democracies were more vulnerable to collapse than fully democratic states or autocratic regimes .
Goldstone continued to work on the project , later renamed the Political Instability Task Force , until 2012 , tweaking its statistical model to predict both civil wars and democratic collapses with about 80 % accuracy over the same two-year lead time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ applying a similar approach to assess the risk of political conflict in the US until Turchin got in touch in 2015 .
“ I didn ’ t expect political violence because I believed the US was a strong and flexible democracy , ” Goldstone said .
But he is now convinced that Turchin ’ s PSI heralds a disturbing future for the US that won ’ t be solved by politics as usual after the 2020 election , even if Trump is defeated and goes quietly .
“ If those trends continue after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the occurrence of violence will likely continue , ” Goldstone told BuzzFeed News .
“ I ’ m worried about that no matter who wins , ” he added .
“ The social problems are the gasoline .
Trump is throwing matches.
” The PSI doesn ’ t explicitly address America ’ s deep divisions over racial justice .
“ Race has been an enduring faultline , ever since the founding of the Republic , ” Turchin said .
But he argued that it ’ s the additional dynamics captured by the PSI @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right now .
One key concern , according to Goldstone , is that people across the political spectrum have lost faith in government and political institutions .
“ In short , given the accumulated grievances , anger and distrust fanned for the last two decades , almost any election scenario this fall is likely to lead to popular protests on a scale we have not seen this century , ” he and Turchin wrote in a recent article published by the Berggruen Institute , a think tank based in Los Angeles .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of political instability the researchers dubbed “ the turbulent twenties.
” “ Given the Black Lives Matter protests and cascading clashes between competing armed factions in cities across the United States , from Portland , Oregon , to Kenosha , Wisconsin , we are already well on our way there , ” the article said .
“ But worse likely lies ahead.
” Turchin said people who rule out the possibility of serious political violence in the US based on “ the strength of American institutions ” are being “ unduly optimistic.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in is extremely fragile , ” Turchin said .
Other social scientists consulted by BuzzFeed News were skeptical that the US is on the brink of a civil war .
But they were concerned about the trends highlighted by Goldstone and Turchin , and worried about the potential for violence around the coming election — especially from right-wing militia groups if Trump loses and contests the result .
“ No matter what the outcome is , it is going to be disputed by some components of the other side , ” Craig Jenkins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who studies political violence , told BuzzFeed News .
“ The difference is that the Trump forces have militia that have some capacity for violence and mayhem.
” One reason that most experts in conflict studies don ’ t predict an outright civil war as a consequence of the US ’ s gap between rich and poor is that inequality hasn ’ t emerged as a major driving factor in studies of such conflicts in the modern era .
“ Civil war has been predominantly a phenomenon in low-income countries , ” James @ @ @ @ @ @ @ University and coauthor of a 2003 paper that identified national poverty as an important condition that can lead to violent insurgency , told BuzzFeed News .
Another influential study , published in 2000 by the economists Paul Collier of the University of Oxford and Anke Hoeffler , now at the University of Konstanz in Germany , suggested that an armed group ’ s ability to seize control over significant economic resources — such as diamonds in several conflict-prone African nations and drug crops in Colombia — was a key driver of modern civil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a diverse and robust economy , the US should have a fairly low chance of falling into civil war according to these theories .
And if push comes to shove and order needs to be restored by force , few experts in political conflict expect even a well-armed militia to be a match for federal law enforcement or the National Guard .
The circumstances in the 19th century that led the US into the bloodiest conflict in its history were also unusual .
The young nation was growing , adding states that either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fundamental economic and moral divide that couldn ’ t easily be resolved .
“ That was an irreconcilable dynamic , ” Jenkins said .
“ I think you need the accumulation of irresolvable conflicts to get a true civil war.
” But recent events , notably the plot by a group of right-wing militants to kidnap and potentially kill the Democratic governor of Michigan , Gretchen Whitmer , over her policies to limit the spread of the coronavirus , have shocked even skeptics of the idea that the US is teetering on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is really concerning , ” Fearon said .
The PSI isn ’ t the only indicator that has set alarm bells ringing about the stability of the US .
The Fund for Peace , a nonprofit based in Washington , DC , has developed a measure called the Fragile States Index ( FSI ) that , like the work of the State Failure Task Force , seeks to identify nations that are at risk of violence and instability from a range of underlying pressures including economic distress , refugee flows , and their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the US looks reasonably healthy on the FSI , ranked 149th out of 178 countries for its potential for instability .
But there are worrying signs for the US on a component of the FSI labeled “ cohesion , ” according to Fund for Peace programs manager Natalie Fiertz .
“ Over the past decade-plus , we ’ ve seen very rapid worsening of the score for those dimensions , ” she told BuzzFeed News .
The Fragile States Index shows that the US is becoming a less cohesive society .
This chart @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the three cohesion components of the FSI for the members of the G7 group of rich democracies .
These measure security threats including terrorism and organized crime , factionalization of a nation ’ s elites , and schisms between different groups in society .
Not surprisingly , given the intense and growing political polarization in the US , it is the last two measures that explain why the nation ’ s cohesion score has gone from the second best among the G7 to the worst in just 15 years .
( In recent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the US on this measure , driven by its own political divisions over Brexit . )
But political polarization may be just another consequence of the economic inequality that Goldstone and Turchin argue lies at the heart of the US ’ s current vulnerability to political violence .
Political scientists have put a great deal of energy into identifying why polarization in the US is escalating .
But factors including the influence of partisan cable TV news and congressional redistricting don ’ t seem to provide the answer — the latter , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Senate has become increasingly divided .
What is clear is that polarization in Congress has historically tracked closely with income inequality .
And recent studies have shown that states with greater income inequality tend to have more polarized state legislatures — supporting the idea that inequality is a fundamental cause of America ’ s deep political divisions .
Even the International Monetary Fund has weighed in , warning nations of the corrosive effects of inequality in a 2017 publication : “ While some inequality is inevitable in a market-based economic system , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lead to political polarization , and ultimately lower economic growth.
” Inequality can also damage public health .
In their 2009 book The Spirit Level , the British epidemiologists Kate Pickett of the University of York and Richard Wilkinson of the University of Nottingham looked at differences across rich nations for an index of health and social outcomes including infant mortality , life expectancy , mental illness , incarceration , and literacy .
They could find no correlation with gross national income per person , but found a strong relationship between poor outcomes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in incomes between the top and bottom 20 % of a country ’ s earners .
“ Inequality is a social stressor , ” Wilkinson told BuzzFeed News .
“ One of the big changes in our understanding of social determinants of health is the role of chronic stress.
” The pandemic has made inequality much worse — but it may also be a catalyst for change .
Given all of the evidence linking inequality to a raft of bad outcomes , it should come as no surprise that unrest has surged during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poverty and people of color have not only been disproportionately sickened and killed by the virus , but they have also been hit harder by the recession it has caused — which has further widened the gulf between rich and poor .
“ What we need is a new social contract that will enable us to get past extreme polarization to find consensus , tip the shares of economic growth back toward workers and improve government funding for public health , education and infrastructure , ” Goldstone and Turchin wrote in their Berggruen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in today ’ s combat zone of weaponized social media , in which even modest proposals to ratchet back inequality are framed as “ communism ” ?
One hopeful sign is that the US has pulled back from the brink of chaos before through similar reforms , within the lifetime of its oldest citizens .
In the 1930s , as parts of Europe slid into fascism , the US went in a different direction , electing Franklin D. Roosevelt to drag the nation out of the Great Depression by ushering in the New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think the US could pull off a similar feat again .
“ You can reform your way out of dramatically polarized societies , ” said George Lawson of the Australian National University in Canberra , who has studied societal transformations including the peaceful transition to majority rule in South Africa .
Even given Trump ’ s flouting of democratic norms and the current upsurge in civil unrest , Lawson believes the US , by and large , has withstood a political “ stress test.
” “ I would err on the side that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ robust than fragile , ” Lawson said .
“ One thing to come out of the past few years is an energization of political engagement that is healthy .
”

Turchin said people who rule out the possibility of serious political violence in the US based on “the strength of American institutions” are being “unduly optimistic.”
“The social system that we live in is extremely fragile,” Turchin said.
Other social scientists consulted by BuzzFeed News were skeptical that the US is on the brink of a civil war. But they were concerned about the trends highlighted by Goldstone and Turchin, and worried about the potential for violence around the coming election — especially from right-wing militia groups if Trump loses and contests the result.
“No matter what the outcome is, it is going to be disputed by some components of the other side,” Craig Jenkins, a sociologist at Ohio State University who studies political violence, told BuzzFeed News. “The difference is that the Trump forces have militia that have some capacity for violence and mayhem.”
One reason that most experts in conflict studies don’t predict an outright civil war as a consequence of the US’s gap between rich and poor is that inequality hasn’t emerged as a major driving factor in studies of such conflicts in the modern era.
“Civil war has been predominantly a phenomenon in low-income countries,” James Fearon, a political scientist at Stanford University and coauthor of a 2003 paper that identified national poverty as an important condition that can lead to violent insurgency, told BuzzFeed News.
Another influential study, published in 2000 by the economists Paul Collier of the University of Oxford and Anke Hoeffler, now at the University of Konstanz in Germany, suggested that an armed group’s ability to seize control over significant economic resources — such as diamonds in several conflict-prone African nations and drug crops in Colombia — was a key driver of modern civil wars.
As a rich nation with a diverse and robust economy, the US should have a fairly low chance of falling into civil war according to these theories. And if push comes to shove and order needs to be restored by force, few experts in political conflict expect even a well-armed militia to be a match for federal law enforcement or the National Guard.
The circumstances in the 19th century that led the US into the bloodiest conflict in its history were also unusual. The young nation was growing, adding states that either opposed or supported slavery, creating a fundamental economic and moral divide that couldn’t easily be resolved. “That was an irreconcilable dynamic,” Jenkins said. “I think you need the accumulation of irresolvable conflicts to get a true civil war.”
But recent events, notably the plot by a group of right-wing militants to kidnap and potentially kill the Democratic governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, over her policies to limit the spread of the coronavirus, have shocked even skeptics of the idea that the US is teetering on the brink of civil conflict. “This is really concerning,” Fearon said.
The PSI isn’t the only indicator that has set alarm bells ringing about the stability of the US. The Fund for Peace, a nonprofit based in Washington, DC, has developed a measure called the Fragile States Index (FSI) that, like the work of the State Failure Task Force, seeks to identify nations that are at risk of violence and instability from a range of underlying pressures including economic distress, refugee flows, and their record on human rights.
Overall, the US looks reasonably healthy on the FSI, ranked 149th out of 178 countries for its potential for instability. But there are worrying signs for the US on a component of the FSI labeled “cohesion,” according to Fund for Peace programs manager Natalie Fiertz. “Over the past decade-plus, we’ve seen very rapid worsening of the score for those dimensions,” she told BuzzFeed News.
The Fragile States Index shows that the US is becoming a less cohesive society.


buzzfeed--2020-10-31--First-Time Voters Are Being Celebrated With Cheers And Applause At Polling Stations

“ I think it ’ s important to affirm first time voters that they are doing the right thing , and that voting is something they should prioritize in every election.
” Americans voting for the first time are being showered with applause and cheers at polling stations to mark the moment in the best way possible , as the nation prepares for one of the most dramatic presidential elections in recent years .
20-year-old student , Vee , from Santa Clarita is one of the millions of Gen Zers who were unable to vote in 2016 .
She said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she cast her ballot early , it was “ empowering.
” “ It was motivating and encouraging to hear people clap or cheer for something I felt was necessary to do as a citizen , especially in this election , ” she told BuzzFeed News .
Mitchell Moravec from Raleigh , North Carolina , has been working as an election official at a polling station in what will be one of this election 's more significant swing states .
The 25-year-old celebrated the various first time voters he had seen come to cast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ friends or their families , and others who come alone .
“ One thing we like to watch is how they react when they are announced as a first time voter to the polling place and we all clap for them , ” said Moravec .
“ Lots of them are sort of timid or embarrassed , but some are excited and kind of soak up the affirmation , '' he said .
`` Overall , I feel like young people and new voters of all types are really taking the task of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ intention behind celebrating the moment and championing first time voters is all about affirming their choice to participate in the political process , especially during the current climate .
“ While we market voting as a free and equal right , it ’ s still hard .
It takes a lot to come out and do the duty especially with all the doom and gloom news stories and coverage of the election and the pandemic , ” he said “ I think it ’ s important to affirm first time voters that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that voting is something they should prioritize in every election.
” For Briana Sanchez , casting her vote for the first time meant more than just fulfilling a civil obligation .
The 20-year-old who lives in Texas is one of the millions of Americans who became unemployed as a result of the global pandemic .
As well as the economic challenges , Sanchez shared she felt that voting was necessary because of her identity .
“ It means a lot to me , being Mexican and part of the LGBTQ+ community , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for someone who is for those two groups and not against them , ” she said .
“ I remember not being able to vote for the last election due to me being too young and hearing that Donald Trump won was scary .
I don ’ t want anyone who is younger than me to feel that since they couldn ’ t vote in this election.
” The ovation she received at her polling station was something “ totally unexpected , ” said Sanchez .
“ I always thought when you go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to enter a very serious space and no noise is to be made .
So when I was asked by this very kind lady if I was a first time voter and she shouted ‘ We have a first time voter !
’ to the entire room and everyone stopped what they were doing to cheer , it was great.
” Myron Curtis , a US history teacher living in Virginia , may not have received an ovation as he cast his ballot for the first time .
But for the 35-year-old , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four elections , the moment he shared with his daughter was a celebration of its own .
“ With everything that 's at stake I just ca n't look my 7-year-old daughter in the eye and say I did everything in my power to try to fight for a better future for her if I sat this one out , ” shared Curtis .
On his first experience at a polling station , Curtis acknowledged that he saw several younger voters receive their moment of applause .
Due to his age , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voted at some point in his adulthood , a fact that he felt somewhat embarrassed about .
“ I brought my daughter with me and she was like ‘ daddy you should tell them ur a first time voter so they clap for u too , ’ ” she said .
“ I hushed her and told her I was a bit embarrassed at being in my 30s and voting for the first time.
” Curtis shared that , in the past , he had been frustrated by the “ increasingly partisan ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he still held some of these feelings today .
However for this year ’ s election , the father found inspiration in his daughter and the contributions of great African Americans who paved the way for his chance to vote .
“ I was extremely excited , not only going through that process for the first time but also having one of my most favorite people in the world , my daughter , there with me , ” he said .
“ It probably sounds corny , but as a history teacher I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the 54th Massachusetts regiment , Fredrick Douglas , John Lewis and others like him that fought so hard for me to be able to have a voice in our democracy , and all the years I sat around putting down the system , instead of doing my part to bring about change through the system .
”

“Lots of them are sort of timid or embarrassed, but some are excited and kind of soak up the affirmation," he said. "Overall, I feel like young people and new voters of all types are really taking the task of voting seriously.”
Moravec said that the intention behind celebrating the moment and championing first-time voters is all about affirming their choice to participate in the political process, especially in the current climate.
“While we market voting as a free and equal right, it’s still hard. It takes a lot to come out and do the duty, especially with all the doom-and-gloom news stories and coverage of the election and the pandemic,” he said. “I think it’s important to affirm first-time voters that they are doing the right thing and that voting is something they should prioritize in every election.”
For Briana Sanchez, casting her vote for the first time meant more than just fulfilling a civil obligation. The 20-year-old who lives in Texas is one of the millions of Americans who became unemployed as a result of the pandemic. As well as the economic challenges, Sanchez shared she felt that voting was necessary because of her identity.


buzzfeed--2020-10-31--Trump Made It Clear He Wants The Supreme Court To Shut Down Vote Counting After Election Day

President Donald Trump , in his last sprint of rallies before Election Day , is aggressively accelerating his campaign to spread distrust in the US election and legal systems , laying the groundwork for a potential effort to stop counting votes after Nov. 3 .
“ The whole world , and our nation , is going to be waiting , and waiting , and waiting to hear who won ?
You ’ re going to be waiting for weeks ?
, ” Trump asked a crowd of supporters Saturday morning in Bucks County , Pennsylvania .
There has been a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nationwide because of the coronavirus pandemic , particularly — polls suggest , among Democrats .
Because of how some key states like Pennsylvania count votes , that might mean that the election winner is not determined on election night , and it could mean that some states that count absentee ballots late may show initial results that have Trump winning , only for Joe Biden to overtake him as more votes come in .
There ’ s nothing about that that would suggest fraud or illegality , and it ’ s not unusual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ finalize a vote count .
Trump , though , is now loudly insisting otherwise .
He repeatedly blamed the Supreme Court , which earlier this week denied Pennsylvania Republicans ’ request to issue a decision on mail-in ballots before the election , punting the issue .
That denial means that Pennsylvania can still count ballots that are postmarked by Election Day as long as they arrive by Nov. 6 ; Republicans had sued to stop them from counting anything that arrives after Nov. 3 .
“ This is a terrible thing they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s the United States Supreme Court I ’ m talking about .
That is a terrible , political , horrible decision that they made .
We ’ re going to be waiting , Nov. 3 is going to come and go and we ’ re not going to know , ” Trump said .
“ And you ’ re going to have bedlam in our country , and you ’ re going to have this period of nine days or seven days or whatever it is , and many bad things @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ oh we just found ten thousand ballots , oh that ’ s good , we just found another ten thousand.
’ This is a horrible thing the United States Supreme Court has done to our country .
And I say it , and I say it loud and I say it proud.
” '' We have to know who won , '' he said .
`` We have to know who won . ''

President Donald Trump, in his last sprint of rallies before Election Day, is aggressively accelerating his campaign to spread distrust in the US election and legal systems, laying the groundwork for a potential effort to stop counting votes after Nov. 3.
“The whole world, and our nation, is going to be waiting, and waiting, and waiting to hear who won? You’re going to be waiting for weeks?” Trump asked a crowd of supporters Saturday morning in Bucks County, Pennsylvania.
There has been a giant spike in early and mail-in voting nationwide because of the coronavirus pandemic, particularly — polls suggest, among Democrats. Because of how some key states like Pennsylvania count votes, that might mean that the election winner is not determined on election night, and it could mean that some states that count absentee ballots late may show initial results that have Trump winning, only for Joe Biden to overtake him as more votes come in. There’s nothing about that that would suggest fraud or illegality, and it’s not unusual for some states to take days to finalize a vote count. Trump, though, is now loudly insisting otherwise.
He repeatedly blamed the Supreme Court, which earlier this week denied Pennsylvania Republicans’ request to issue a decision on mail-in ballots before the election, punting the issue. That denial means that Pennsylvania can still count ballots that are postmarked by Election Day as long as they arrive by Nov. 6; Republicans had sued to stop them from counting anything that arrives after Nov. 3.
“This is a terrible thing they’ve done to our country. And that’s the United States Supreme Court I’m talking about. That is a terrible, political, horrible decision that they made. We’re going to be waiting, Nov. 3 is going to come and go and we’re not going to know,” Trump said. “And you’re going to have bedlam in our country, and you’re going to have this period of nine days or seven days or whatever it is, and many bad things — ballots are going to be, ‘Oh, we just found 10,000 ballots. Oh, that’s good, we just found another 10,000.’ This is a horrible thing the United States Supreme Court has done to our country. And I say it, and I say it loud and I say it proud.”
"We have to know who won," he said. "We have to know who won."