thegreanvillepostbiasrating--2020-04-20--New Report Says U.S. Intel Warned White House & NATO of Virus Outbreak in Wuhan in November

New Report Says U.S. Intel Warned White House & NATO of Virus Outbreak in Wuhan in November ; Meanwhile , Neocons & National Security State Hacks Stoke China Hostility Over Coronavirus for Their Own Agenda hose of you who read my last book may recall coverage of a Cold War era group called The Committee on the Present Danger .
It was a lobbying group started by a gaggle of neoconservatives during the Ford administration with the goal of spreading falsehoods about the Soviet Union involving violations of nuclear treaties that had been negotiated by the Nixon administration , led @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld to convince president Ford to take these baseless accusations seriously for a time .
hose of you who read my last book may recall coverage of a Cold War era group called The Committee on the Present Danger .
It was a lobbying group started by a gaggle of neoconservatives during the Ford administration with the goal of spreading falsehoods about the Soviet Union involving violations of nuclear treaties that had been negotiated by the Nixon administration , led by Henry Kissinger .
The neocons used defense secretary Donald @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these baseless accusations seriously for a time .
Fast forward to 2019 and The Committee on the Present Danger ( CPD ) gets revived like Night of the Living Dead .
Long-time neocon , PNAC veteran and all-around peddler of nonsense Frank Gaffney set up shop last year with Sinophobe Steve Bannon .
According to an article by Dave DeCamp at Antiwar.com : Members of the CPD refer to China as the greatest “ existential threat ” to the US .
“ The United States is likely to face in the foreseeable future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prepared and willing to use force , as well as nonmilitary forms of warfare , to defeat this country decisively , ” reads one of the CPD ’ s “ guiding principles.
” Another principle says , “ There is no hope of coexistence with China as long as the Communist Party governs the country.
” The Covid-19 pandemic is the perfect opportunity for this group to exploit the fears of Americans and push for a more hawkish policy towards China .
Steve Bannon played an influential role in President Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ administration and pushed hard for tariffs on Chinese goods during his short-lived role as chief strategist .
Bannon ’ s China ambitions do not stop with the trade war .
“ I think ultimate success is regime change [ in China ] , and I realize in that regard I ’ m considered a radical , ” Bannon told NPR in May 2019 .
Bannon has a podcast titled “ Bannon ’ s War Room.
” Back in January , in the early days of the outbreak , Bannon changed the title to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the show , Bannon rails against China ’ s response to the virus .
Bannon frequently refers to the pandemic as a “ Biological Chernobyl ” and has said there will be a “ Nuremberg-type trial ” in Wuhan .
Last week , Bannon appeared on Fox Business News and said , “ Blood is on the hands of the Chinese Communist Party.
” As I explained in a recent post , there is nothing constructive to be gained from this kind of vilifying rhetoric which has historically set the stage for escalation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in order to destroy someone you first must demonize and dehumanize them and those doing the demonizing usually play fast and loose with the facts while exploiting genuine concerns .
The “ casus belli ” if you will this time is China intentionally being deceptive about the coronavirus .
In recent weeks , the usual politicians who can be counted on to beat the war drums every time have been out in full force about the dastardly China and its alleged partner in crime the WHO , exaggerating China ’ s initial mistakes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ foot-dragging and lack of preparedness .
It has just come out via an article in the Times of Israel that American intelligence had discovered – through monitoring of internal Chinese communications – that a pandemic threat was possible and had passed this information onto the IDF , NATO , and the White House back in NOVEMBER .
US intelligence agencies alerted Israel to the coronavirus outbreak in China already in November , Israeli television reported Thursday .
According to Channel 12 news , the US intelligence community became aware of the emerging disease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that month and drew up a classified document .
…US intelligence informed the Trump administration , “ which did not deem it of interest , ” but the report said the Americans also decided to update two allies with the classified document : NATO and Israel , specifically the IDF .
…Last week , ABC News reported that US intelligence officials were warning about the coronavirus in a report prepared in November by the American military ’ s National Center for Medical Intelligence .
It was unclear if that was the same report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Israel .
The ABC report was denied by the NCMI .
It does appear that China dropped the ball in the early days of the outbreak in that country , but the fact of the matter is that our executive branch of government did not take the potential of a pandemic – something other agencies had discussed and tried to better prepare for – seriously .
Trying to point the finger solely at China for our shortcomings is not much better than the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party cooking up Russiagate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ failures .
And it ’ s about as reckless .
Furthermore , there is an active propaganda campaign at work in the State Department as publicly admitted by Daniel Blumenthal during recent testimony to Congress .
Blumenthal co-wrote the propaganda blueprint with Nicholas Eberstadt .
Both work at the neoconservative think tank , the American Enterprise Institute .
Blumenthal was in charge of the Pentagon ’ s China operations during the Bush II administration .
During his testimony Blumenthal stated his desire to go back to a Cold War style propaganda offensive , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outlets that the national security state has at its disposal to manipulate the narrative .
See video below .
Trump ’ s regime-change-the-WHO strategy follows a blueprint laid out by former Bush administration official @ DAlexBlumenthal , who is calling for “ political warfare ” against China and deployment of State Department “ information warriors ” .
Watch my latest : pic.twitter.com/wSF6U01zuZ I ’ m not so naive as to believe that the Chinese government is filled with angels .
I ’ m not against an intellectually honest critique of what China may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ learn from it for the future .
However , it ’ s hard to undertake such a critique when so many who are given a platform by our corporate media to discuss China are linked to the national security state or are dangerous ideologues like the neocons .
Moreover , there ’ s an old saying about criticizing the splinter in your neighbor ’ s eye while ignoring the log in your own .
Did the Chinese government force Trump to not take the crisis seriously once the information was finally out in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your friends and just because they are not as visible as they were during the Bush II administration does not mean they have gone away .
Neocons are always warmongers and anything coming from them must be viewed with suspicion .
Their very ideology necessitates the U.S. having to have an enemy in order to have a pure and meaningful identity since they believe there must always be a battle between good and evil .
They must have a bogeyman for Americans to fear so they can maintain power .
The bogeyman may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Neocons are imperialists who believe that the United States must have “ full spectrum dominance ” over the world – because they inherently represent good .
For a refresher on who the neocons are , what they think , and the roots of their warped philosophy , watch the 2004 BBC documentary The Power of Nightmares : The Rise of the Politics of Fear .

New Report Says U.S. Intel Warned White House & NATO of Virus Outbreak in Wuhan in November; Meanwhile, Neocons & National Security State Hacks Stoke China Hostility Over Coronavirus for Their Own Agenda By Natalie Baldwin /Natylie's Place [dropcap]T[/dropcap]hose of you who read my last book may recall coverage of a Cold War era group called The Committee on the Present Danger. It was a lobbying group started by a gaggle of neoconservatives during the Ford administration with the goal of spreading falsehoods about the Soviet Union involving violations of nuclear treaties that had been negotiated by the Nixon administration, led by Henry Kissinger. The neocons used defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld to convince president Ford to take these baseless accusations seriously for a time. [dropcap]T[/dropcap]hose of you who read my last book may recall coverage of a Cold War era group called The Committee on the Present Danger. It was a lobbying group started by a gaggle of neoconservatives during the Ford administration with the goal of spreading falsehoods about the Soviet Union involving violations of nuclear treaties that had been negotiated by the Nixon administration, led by Henry Kissinger. The neocons used defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld to convince president Ford to take these baseless accusations seriously for a time. Fast forward to 2019 and The Committee on the Present Danger (CPD) gets revived like Night of the Living Dead. Long-time neocon, PNAC veteran and all-around peddler of nonsense Frank Gaffney set up shop last year with Sinophobe Steve Bannon. According to an article by Dave DeCamp at Antiwar.com: Members of the CPD refer to China as the greatest "existential threat" to the US. "The United States is likely to face in the foreseeable future a determined and aggressive superpower adversary, prepared and willing to use force, as well as nonmilitary forms of warfare, to defeat this country decisively," reads one of the CPD’s "guiding principles." Another principle says, "There is no hope of coexistence with China as long as the Communist Party governs the country." The Covid-19 pandemic is the perfect opportunity for this group to exploit the fears of Americans and push for a more hawkish policy towards China. Steve Bannon played an influential role in President Trump’s campaign and the early days of the administration and pushed hard for tariffs on Chinese goods during his short-lived role as chief strategist. Bannon’s China ambitions do not stop with the trade war. "I think ultimate success is regime change [in China], and I realize in that regard I’m considered a radical," Bannon told NPR in May 2019. Bannon has a podcast titled "Bannon’s War Room." Back in January, in the early days of the outbreak, Bannon changed the title to "War Room: Pandemic." In the show, Bannon rails against China’s response to the virus. Bannon frequently refers to the pandemic as a "Biological Chernobyl" and has said there will be a "Nuremberg-type trial" in Wuhan. Last week, Bannon appeared on Fox Business News and said, "Blood is on the hands of the Chinese Communist Party." As I explained in a recent post, there is nothing constructive to be gained from this kind of vilifying rhetoric which has historically set the stage for escalation and even war. After all, in order to destroy someone you first must demonize and dehumanize them and those doing the demonizing usually play fast and loose with the facts while exploiting genuine concerns. The "casus belli" if you will this time is China intentionally being deceptive about the coronavirus. In recent weeks, the usual politicians who can be counted on to beat the war drums every time have been out in full force about the dastardly China and its alleged partner in crime the WHO, exaggerating China's initial mistakes to excuse our own government's foot-dragging and lack of preparedness. It has just come out via an article in the Times of Israel that American intelligence had discovered - through monitoring of internal Chinese communications - that a pandemic threat was possible and had passed this information onto the IDF, NATO, and the White House back in NOVEMBER. US intelligence agencies alerted Israel to the coronavirus outbreak in China already in November, Israeli television reported Thursday. According to Channel 12 news, the US intelligence community became aware of the emerging disease in Wuhan in the second week of that month and drew up a classified document. ...US intelligence informed the Trump administration, “which did not deem it of interest,” but the report said the Americans also decided to update two allies with the classified document: NATO and Israel, specifically the IDF. ...Last week, ABC News reported that US intelligence officials were warning about the coronavirus in a report prepared in November by the American military’s National Center for Medical Intelligence. It was unclear if that was the same report that was said to have been shared with Israel. The ABC report was denied by the NCMI. It does appear that China dropped the ball in the early days of the outbreak in that country, but the fact of the matter is that our executive branch of government did not take the potential of a pandemic - something other agencies had discussed and tried to better prepare for - seriously. Trying to point the finger solely at China for our shortcomings is not much better than the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party cooking up Russiagate to cover and distract for its own failures. And it's about as reckless. Furthermore, there is an active propaganda campaign at work in the State Department as publicly admitted by Daniel Blumenthal during recent testimony to Congress. Blumenthal co-wrote the propaganda blueprint with Nicholas Eberstadt. Both work at the neoconservative think tank, the American Enterprise Institute. Blumenthal was in charge of the Pentagon's China operations during the Bush II administration. During his testimony Blumenthal stated his desire to go back to a Cold War style propaganda offensive, citing the NGO's and media outlets that the national security state has at its disposal to manipulate the narrative. See video below. Trump’s regime-change-the-WHO strategy follows a blueprint laid out by former Bush administration official @DAlexBlumenthal, who is calling for “political warfare” against China and deployment of State Department “information warriors”. Watch my latest: pic.twitter.com/wSF6U01zuZ — Dan Cohen (@dancohen3000) April 14, 2020 I'm not so naive as to believe that the Chinese government is filled with angels. I'm not against an intellectually honest critique of what China may have done wrong so the world can learn from it for the future. However, it's hard to undertake such a critique when so many who are given a platform by our corporate media to discuss China are linked to the national security state or are dangerous ideologues like the neocons. Moreover, there's an old saying about criticizing the splinter in your neighbor's eye while ignoring the log in your own. Did the Chinese government force Trump to not take the crisis seriously once the information was finally out in January? Remember, neocons are not your friends and just because they are not as visible as they were during the Bush II administration does not mean they have gone away. Neocons are always warmongers and anything coming from them must be viewed with suspicion. Their very ideology necessitates the U.S. having to have an enemy in order to have a pure and meaningful identity since they believe there must always be a battle between good and evil. They must have a bogeyman for Americans to fear so they can maintain power. The bogeyman may be Russia, terrorism, or China. Neocons are imperialists who believe that the United States must have "full spectrum dominance" over the world - because they inherently represent good. For a refresher on who the neocons are, what they think, and the roots of their warped philosophy, watch the 2004 BBC documentary The Power of Nightmares: The Rise of the Politics of Fear.


thegreanvillepostbiasrating--2020-04-20--The Virus of the Lie

The Virus of the Lie

“ If we saw this pandemic as a conflict , then we could talk about two fronts , ” Carl Miller , research director of the UK-based Demos Group ’ s Centre for Social Network Analysis , told Al Jazeera .
The first line is the pressure on health services , and the second is the social and political turmoil that the virus and our response to Covid-19 have caused .
“ The battle against false news is key on this front , ” adds Miller .
We have consumed lies for many years , but now that something has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the table is set for the lifelong lunatics and haters .
These days , reports Miami New Times , certain Miami “ leaders ” have put forward the theory that Cuba is behind the epidemic .
“ It is well known that the Cuban government , after the Bay of Pigs and the missile crisis , began to experiment and get a lot of support from the then-Soviet Union in biological warfare and all kinds of weapons , ” said Miami-Dade County Commissioner Javier Souto , an octogenarian who has been in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to pass a resolution banning flights to the island — just after the Havana government ’ s announcement that it had closed its borders .
But it was not Miguel Díaz-Canel who made a fool of this crazy theory .
USA Today analyzed the travel destinations of hundreds of Floridians who later tested positive for Covid-19 .
They had visited 46 other countries and every continent except Antarctica .
Only 11 had been to Cuba , but they did not catch the disease there , according to the U.S. daily .
Souto ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not the country with the most deaths and Covid-19 infections in the world that has exposed the inefficiency and cruelty of its health system , nor is it the one that in the midst of this unprecedented crisis is unable to offer its own people , let alone the planet , any civilizing ideal other than financial and environmental depredation .
Even the hawkish Henry Kissinger , an accomplice to scandalous genocides and a prophet of “ American ” exceptionalism , doubts “ the ability of Americans to govern themselves ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Miami trolley brigade in the style of Operation Berlin against Andrés Manuel López Obrador , released a supposedly current image , in which carts pulled by horses with health personnel on board appear .
This is a photograph taken on May 1 , 2018 , in Placetas , a small town in the center of Cuba , during the march for International Workers ’ Day .
But the crude , ultramontane Miami right is only a mediocre apprentice of the State Department .
In the midst of the wave of world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and rich countries in times of the coronavirus , an official from the U.S. Embassy in Havana said that the government of Donald Trump sold millions of dollars ’ worth of medicines and medical equipment to Cuba last year , insinuating that the economic blockade that his country exercises on the island is the work of the Caribbean imagination .
Dr. Lazaro Silva , vice-president of Medicuba , the state agency that imports health supplies , responded with three words : “ Let them prove it ” .
Another bureaucrat , the undersecretary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ slaves of the Cuban government ” , Washington ’ s favorite insult since it convinced the governments of Brazil , Ecuador and Bolivia to expel the health brigades from Cuba , something that is now bitterly being demanded of Bolsonaro , Lenin and the usurper Añez by the peoples punished by the virus and government incompetence .
“ It is a label of well-calculated propaganda conceived of by the United States government to discredit what is an indisputable moral achievement of a developing country , ” was the response of the Director @ @ @ @ @ @ @ States , of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Washington Post .
There is an epidemiological pattern in the false news and prejudices that have circulated about Cuba for more than half a century , as is the case with the sanctions that the United States unilaterally applies to the countries it considers “ enemies ” .
Pope Francisco , the United Nations and dozens of personalities and organizations have demanded the lifting of the punishments from sanctions that are hitting the countries in the midst of the pandemic doubly hard .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ does not even realize that he has placed the United States at its lowest level of political and moral influence , with its usual weapons -the arrogance of power , the ecstasy of dominance , the ambition of hegemony , the rage of self-assertion- quite dented .
If something is expressed on both fronts of this pandemic , it is that no country has been left out of the deadly war against the new coronavirus and , with such tension on its shoulders , there is no one who can stand the imprudence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that lie focuses on Cuba , even less so .

Rosa Miriam Elizalde
RESUMEN LATINOAMERICANO / ENGLISH EDITION
“If we saw this pandemic as a conflict, then we could talk about two fronts,” Carl Miller, research director of the UK-based Demos Group’s Centre for Social Network Analysis, told Al Jazeera. The first line is the pressure on health services, and the second is the social and political turmoil that the virus and our response to Covid-19 have caused. “The battle against false news is key on this front,” adds Miller.
We have consumed lies for many years, but now that something has gone out of control, especially psychically, the table is set for the lifelong lunatics and haters. These days, reports Miami New Times, certain Miami “leaders” have put forward the theory that Cuba is behind the epidemic.
“It is well known that the Cuban government, after the Bay of Pigs and the missile crisis, began to experiment and get a lot of support from the then-Soviet Union in biological warfare and all kinds of weapons,” said Miami-Dade County Commissioner Javier Souto, an octogenarian who has been in office for decades, and who managed to pass a resolution banning flights to the island — just after the Havana government’s announcement that it had closed its borders.
But it was not Miguel Díaz-Canel who made a fool of this crazy theory. USA Today analyzed the travel destinations of hundreds of Floridians who later tested positive for Covid-19. They had visited 46 other countries and every continent except Antarctica. Only 11 had been to Cuba, but they did not catch the disease there, according to the U.S. daily.
Souto’s story is told backwards. Cuba is not the country with the most deaths and Covid-19 infections in the world that has exposed the inefficiency and cruelty of its health system, nor is it the one that in the midst of this unprecedented crisis is unable to offer its own people, let alone the planet, any civilizing ideal other than financial and environmental depredation. Even the hawkish Henry Kissinger, an accomplice to scandalous genocides and a prophet of “American” exceptionalism, doubts “the ability of Americans to govern themselves”.
This Monday, without going any further, the Miami trolley brigade in the style of Operation Berlin against Andrés Manuel López Obrador, released a supposedly current image, in which carts pulled by horses with health personnel on board appear. This is a photograph taken on May 1, 2018, in Placetas, a small town in the center of Cuba, during the march for International Workers’ Day.
But the crude, ultramontane Miami right is only a mediocre apprentice of the State Department. In the midst of the wave of world sympathy for Cuban medical collaboration with poor and rich countries in times of the coronavirus, an official from the U.S. Embassy in Havana said that the government of Donald Trump sold millions of dollars’ worth of medicines and medical equipment to Cuba last year, insinuating that the economic blockade that his country exercises on the island is the work of the Caribbean imagination. Dr. Lazaro Silva, vice-president of Medicuba, the state agency that imports health supplies, responded with three words: “Let them prove it”.
Another bureaucrat, the undersecretary of State, called doctors and nurses “slaves of the Cuban government”, Washington’s favorite insult since it convinced the governments of Brazil, Ecuador and Bolivia to expel the health brigades from Cuba, something that is now bitterly being demanded of Bolsonaro, Lenin and the usurper Añez by the peoples punished by the virus and government incompetence. “It is a label of well-calculated propaganda conceived of by the United States government to discredit what is an indisputable moral achievement of a developing country,” was the response of the Director of the General Division for the United States, of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Washington Post.
There is an epidemiological pattern in the false news and prejudices that have circulated about Cuba for more than half a century, as is the case with the sanctions that the United States unilaterally applies to the countries it considers “enemies”. Pope Francisco, the United Nations and dozens of personalities and organizations have demanded the lifting of the punishments from sanctions that are hitting the countries in the midst of the pandemic doubly hard.
Trump, deaf to all this, does not even realize that he has placed the United States at its lowest level of political and moral influence, with its usual weapons -the arrogance of power, the ecstasy of dominance, the ambition of hegemony, the rage of self-assertion- quite dented. If something is expressed on both fronts of this pandemic, it is that no country has been left out of the deadly war against the new coronavirus and, with such tension on its shoulders, there is no one who can stand the imprudence of the imperial lie. And if that lie focuses on Cuba, even less so.
Source: Cubadebate, translation Resumen Latinoamericano, North America bureau


thegreanvillepostbiasrating--2020-04-21--Negative Prices Mark The End Of U.S. Shale

Please make sure these dispatches reach as many readers as possible .
Share with kin , friends and workmates and ask them to do likewise .
DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA , BY “ B ” This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama ome companies had taken on the obligation to buy a large amount of West Texas Intermediate crude oil at a certain price .
The price offered by the sellers looked cheap at the time when the contracts were signed .
The settlement date of the contracts was April 21 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ but this time the sellers insisted to physically delivery the oil to the buyers .
That was a problem .
The buyers did not have the storage capacity to accept the oil he had bought months ago .
They now had to accept a large amount they could not put anywhere .
The only way out was to immediately sell it to someone else .
But nobody was interested .
All had their storage capacity already filled to the rim .
The companies with the obligation to accept the oil from the producers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their oil .
When the price started to go into negative territory I offered extra storage : Offering to take the oil at - $ 50 was a bit too greedy .
The WTI May option contract closed out at - $ 37 .
For the first time in memory , US West Texas Intermediate ( WTI ) oil futures were trading in negative territory on the New York Mercantile Exchange ( Nymex ) on Monday , and US crude for May delivery lost $ 55.90 over the course of the trading day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ One insider said the drastic drop was in part the result of the forced liquidation of a position in the futures market “ at any price.
” The contract has one more day to trade as it expires Apr .
21 .
The May contract had an exceptionally high open interest of 109,000 contracts at the start of Monday trading .
But fundamentally , the price reflects extremely distressed crude cargoes that are stranded with refineries ramping down runs , as they can not sell products in a market where demand has collapsed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prevent the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic .
The steep negative price “ means storage is full , ” said Albert Helmig , CEO of consultancy Grey House and former vice president of the Nymex .
Cushing is the delivery and pricing point of US oil futures and has an operational capacity of some 70 million barrels of oil .
It held 55 million bbl last week .
Several large consumer countries are in lockdown .
Global air travel is down by more than 80 % .
There is only little demand for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ WTI benchmark , which reflects the price in landlocked Cushing , Oklahoma , was not the only trade index in trouble .
West Canadian Select oil also traded in negative territory .
Contracts for WTI deliveries in June were still positive at $ 20/barrel as were Brent oil contracts ( $ 25/bl ) which reflect delivery at sea .
U.S. shale oil producers have already cut back some of their production but they will have to cut much more .
The Baker Hughes count of active U.S. oil and gas rigs fell from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 529 active rigs on Friday .
I expect it to drop below 100 during the next few weeks .
More drilling will have to stop because the refineries simply can not sell their products : The trainwreck in Cushing is the result of various factors coming to a head .
Refiners are cutting runs faster than upstream players can shut in production , and differentials have been signaling oil to go to Cushing for weeks , even prompting some midstream operators to reverse infrastructure .
In addition , market sources say that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to expiration , and that some contracts stipulate average prices for trades ahead of expiration .
When a futures trader holds a position this close to expiry , chances are high they will need to deliver physical crude .
They can do so via an exchange futures for physical ( EFP ) arrangement , one trader said , but that requires finding a physical player willing to take delivery .
This means that even under normal circumstances , there is a reconciliation between physical and futures prices close to expiry .
And physical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the past several weeks , reflecting fundamental dynamics and causing that reconciliation to be abrupt and violent .
It costs about $ 45/bl to produce shale oil .
No U.S. shale producer is currently in profitable territory .
All are already highly indebted .
They still hesitate to shut down their wells .
Once shut down the wells tend to clog up .
They will need expensive rework to be reopened .
That is unlikely to be profitable during the next two to five years if ever .
The stone age did @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The oil age will not end for a lack of oil .
Oil demand has probably seen its global peak .
Alternatives have been developed .
The pandemic will likely be with us for some two years .
It will change the behavior of many people .
There is no reason to expect crude oil to ever again reach its previous peak price of more than $ 100/bl .
The total debt of U.S. shale oil producers is estimated to be above $ 200 billion .
None will be paid back .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the banking system .
All countries which have their budgets depending on oil sales are now in deep trouble .
As they lose their importance as producers and consumers the global policies around them will also change .
The pandemic only amplifies the existing structural problems and imbalances in our markets and societies .
It is likely to leave permanent marks on them .
Posted by b on April 21 , 2020 at 8:01 UTC | Permalink “ b ” is Moon of Alabama ’ s founding ( and chief ) editor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to discuss politics , economics , philosophy and blogger Billmon ’ s Whiskey Bar writings .
Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent , open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community .
Bernhard ) ” b ” ) started and still runs the site .
Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators .
You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA @ aol.com .
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License .

Please make sure these dispatches reach as many readers as possible. Share with kin, friends and workmates and ask them to do likewise.
DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama
[dropcap]S[/dropcap]ome companies had taken on the obligation to buy a large amount of West Texas Intermediate crude oil at a certain price. The price offered by the sellers looked cheap at the time when the contracts were signed. The settlement date of the contracts was April 21.
Usually such contacts are settled in money but this time the sellers insisted to physically delivery the oil to the buyers.
That was a problem. The buyers did not have the storage capacity to accept the oil he had bought months ago. They now had to accept a large amount they could not put anywhere. The only way out was to immediately sell it to someone else. But nobody was interested. All had their storage capacity already filled to the rim. The companies with the obligation to accept the oil from the producers then offered to pay others to take their oil.
When the price started to go into negative territory I offered extra storage:
Offering to take the oil at -$50 was a bit too greedy. The WTI May option contract closed out at -$37.
For the first time in memory, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil futures were trading in negative territory on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) on Monday, and US crude for May delivery lost $55.90 over the course of the trading day to close at negative $37.63/bbl. One insider said the drastic drop was in part the result of the forced liquidation of a position in the futures market “at any price.” The contract has one more day to trade as it expires Apr. 21. The May contract had an exceptionally high open interest of 109,000 contracts at the start of Monday trading. But fundamentally, the price reflects extremely distressed crude cargoes that are stranded with refineries ramping down runs, as they cannot sell products in a market where demand has collapsed from consumers who are staying home to prevent the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. The steep negative price “means storage is full,” said Albert Helmig, CEO of consultancy Grey House and former vice president of the Nymex. Cushing is the delivery and pricing point of US oil futures and has an operational capacity of some 70 million barrels of oil. It held 55 million bbl last week.
Several large consumer countries are in lockdown. Global air travel is down by more than 80%. There is only little demand for gasoline or other refined products.
The WTI benchmark, which reflects the price in landlocked Cushing, Oklahoma, was not the only trade index in trouble. West Canadian Select oil also traded in negative territory. Contracts for WTI deliveries in June were still positive at $20/barrel as were Brent oil contracts ($25/bl) which reflect delivery at sea.
U.S. shale oil producers have already cut back some of their production but they will have to cut much more. The Baker Hughes count of active U.S. oil and gas rigs fell from more than 1,000 active rigs last year to 529 active rigs on Friday. I expect it to drop below 100 during the next few weeks.
More drilling will have to stop because the refineries simply can not sell their products:
The trainwreck in Cushing is the result of various factors coming to a head. Refiners are cutting runs faster than upstream players can shut in production, and differentials have been signaling oil to go to Cushing for weeks, even prompting some midstream operators to reverse infrastructure. In addition, market sources say that inexperienced traders hold high positions too close to expiration, and that some contracts stipulate average prices for trades ahead of expiration. When a futures trader holds a position this close to expiry, chances are high they will need to deliver physical crude. They can do so via an exchange futures for physical (EFP) arrangement, one trader said, but that requires finding a physical player willing to take delivery. This means that even under normal circumstances, there is a reconciliation between physical and futures prices close to expiry. And physical prices have been underperforming so-called paper barrels for the past several weeks, reflecting fundamental dynamics and causing that reconciliation to be abrupt and violent.
It costs about $45/bl to produce shale oil. No U.S. shale producer is currently in profitable territory. All are already highly indebted. They still hesitate to shut down their wells. Once shut down the wells tend to clog up. They will need expensive rework to be reopened. That is unlikely to be profitable during the next two to five years if ever.
The stone age did not end for a lack of stones. The oil age will not end for a lack of oil. Oil demand has probably seen its global peak. Alternatives have been developed. The pandemic will likely be with us for some two years. It will change the behavior of many people.
There is no reason to expect crude oil to ever again reach its previous peak price of more than $100/bl.
The total debt of U.S. shale oil producers is estimated to be above $200 billion. None will be paid back. The carnage may well lead to collapses in the banking system.
All countries which have their budgets depending on oil sales are now in deep trouble. As they lose their importance as producers and consumers the global policies around them will also change.
The pandemic only amplifies the existing structural problems and imbalances in our markets and societies. It is likely to leave permanent marks on them.
Posted by b on April 21, 2020 at 8:01 UTC | Permalink
When it takes the equivalent of one barrel of energy to produce one barrel of energy it will be lights out.
Comments Sampler
NOTE ^1000Careerist lackeys serving the elites control the American press. Ever pushing for war and inequality, covering up the oligarchy's crimes... They are in reality shameless disinformers. No wonder the world is in such terrible disarray.
About the author(s) "b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor. This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community. Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
ALL CAPTIONS AND PULL QUOTES BY THE EDITORS NOT THE AUTHORS
Comment here or on our Facebook Group page.