theirishtimes--2020-10-05--Covid-19: Coalition leaders meet Holohan to discuss NPHET’s Level 5 recommendation

The coalition party leaders and chief medical officer are meeting to discuss a recommendation that the State should move to an effective national lockdown for four weeks in an attempt to get Covid-19 numbers under control .
The National Public Health Emergency Team ( NPHET ) on Sunday recommended that the whole country be moved to the highest level of restrictions in the Government ’ s Covid-19 roadmap amid concern over the spread of the disease and rising numbers in hospitals .
In a letter sent by NPHET to Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly on Sunday , seen by The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a “ significant and deteriorating ” epidemiological situation .
“ Nphet advises that it is vital to do everything in our power now ( now is underlined in letter ) to arrest the current t trajectory nationally and suppress the virus back down to a low level of transmission in advance of the winter months.
” However , several Government sources indicated there that is strong resistance among the three parties to introducing such severe restrictions .
Level 5 would see a ban on all household visits and social or family gatherings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be permitted to open .
People would be advised to stay at home except for exercise within 5km of their home .
Only six people would be permitted to attend funerals and weddings .
Unlike the previous lockdown announced last March , schools , creches , and higher education institutions would remain open , with additional protective measures .
Pubs , restaurants and cafes would move to offer takeaway services only , with no organised outdoor gatherings or sporting events to take place .
Dr Tony Holohan chaired Sunday ’ s NPHET meeting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ medical officer after stepping aside for a period for family reasons .
He is expected to reiterate the rationale behind the recommendation - which took the political system by surprise - in his meeting with Taoiseach Micheál Martin , Tánaiste Leo Varadkar and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan .
There was consternation in Government circles last night when news of NPHET ’ s advice broke , given the social and economic impact of the months of severe restrictions had earlier this year .
Several sources were highly critical of NPHET for the sudden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in advance to Government .
Two senior sources described the move as “ irresponsible ” while another senior figures said it was “ completely bizarre ” .
A meeting of an oversight committee , chaired by the country ’ s top civil servant Martin Fraser and involving the secretaries general of other relevant departments , is likely to take place later to discuss NPHET ’ s advice .
The committee is tasked with considering how public health advice can be applied in practice .
A meeting of the Cabinet sub-committee on Covid-19 is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ full Cabinet meeting has also been arranged for later .
Ministers and senior officials believe it is unlikely that a decision to immediately begin a new lockdown will be taken on Monday .
Some sources said that they expected the level of restrictions to be increased - possibly to Level 4 in Dublin and Level 3 three around the country - but that a move to Level 5 was unlikely .
Resistance to the move is strong in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael , while it is understood that the Green Party leader @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Level 5 because of the impact it would have on the economy and society .
Three senior sources said that there needed to be an immediate effort to increase ICU capacity in the system by making arrangements with private hospitals - as was done in the spring , though it was not utilised .
HSE chief executive Paul Reid tweeted on Monday morning that there was obvious concern about Covid-19 trends and figures .
“ But we also know the impacts of severe and regular restrictions in society on the public health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy .
Level 5 recommendation to Government has to be considered in this context too , ” he said .
Minister for Higher Education Simon Harris said he doubted “ many of us got a night ’ s sleep ” after news of NPHET ’ s recommendation emerged .
“ So many worries & questions on people ’ s minds .
Leaks & speculation don ’ t help .
Today needs to bring clarity .
Until then let ’ s focus on what we can control & what we can do - keep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coverings , ” he tweeted .
Dr Mary Favier , a former Irish College of General Practitioners president who sits on NPHET , said the “ inevitable truth ” was a lockdown was needed to protect the country ’ s vulnerable healthcare system .
“ The reality is that if we keep going the way we are , if you or I had a bad road traffic accident in November , or needed emergency cardiac surgery , there might not be an intensive care bed for you or I , ” she told @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concerned at what this winter is going to look like .
It ’ s not just a fear , it ’ s a reality , ” she said .
The healthcare system was already under strain with both Covid and non-Covid cases , the GP said .
Fianna Fáil TD Jim O ’ Callaghan said the Covid-19 response was a “ political question that should be answered by weighing up the current and future threat posed by Covid against the current and future threat posed by the restrictions.
” “ We can ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid , ” he tweeted on Monday .
At present Dublin and Donegal are on Level 3 restrictions , with additional measures restricting pubs and restaurants to outdoor seating only in the capital .
The rest of the country is on Level 2 .
In the past month the five-day average of cases - one key metric tracked by NPHET - has gone from 99 a day to 463 .
The national incidence rate of the virus has trebled from 31 cases per 100,000 in 14 days to 108.9 per 100,000 .
Dublin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases per 100,000 , with Donegal seeing 189 cases per 100,000 in the last 14 days .
Another trend that has added to public health officials ’ concern is the steady increase in the number of Covid-19 admissions to hospital , and intensive care .
The number of people in hospital with Covid-19 has increased from 40 to 141 in the last month , with 21 patients now in intensive care units .
Prof Anthony Staines , a Dublin City University academic and public health expert , said it was clear “ Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ across the whole country.
” “ That ’ s been clear for some time , but whether we should be starting with Level 5 is a different question , ” he told Newstalk Breakfast .
“ I think the public is much less concerned about this than some elements within the business community and at least one element within the Cabinet , we ’ re going to need to do something because the number of cases is rising steadily , the number of admissions is rising steadily .
”

Taoiseach Micheál Martin said there would be a special focus on enforcing the existing rules rather than moving to a higher level of restrictions. Video: RTE
The Cabinet has decided that the whole country will move to Level 3 restrictions from midnight on Tuesday for three weeks.
This follows the rejection of a recommendation from public health officials to move to Level 5 to slow the spread of Covid-19.
Speaking at Government Buildings on Monday night, Mr Martin said there had been an exponential increase in the rate of transmission of Covid-19 across the country and that “we all must respond”.
Hospital Report
He said we are in a “very different situation” to last March and businesses were beginning to recover while vital health services were backlogged.
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Severe restrictions now would have a damaging impact on these and as a result the Government had decided “at this stage” not to move “to a more comprehensive lockdown”, he added.
He said an immediate and more comprehensive lockdown would make it harder to deal with non-Covid health concerns. However, he said it was essential steps be taken to bring down the rate of infection and therefore the country would move to Level 3 of the Government’s Living with Covid Strategy from midnight on Tuesday for three weeks.
This would mean the regulations potentially being eased from midnight on October 27th - just days ahead of Halloween.
Mr Martin said measures would also be stepped up to increase compliance with guidelines.
He said most people were following current guidelines but there was also no doubt “some are taking a more lax attitude”. He said the virus was spreading because people were allowing it to spread.
The Taoiseach said he understood how frustrated people were and that the “yearning for normality grows stronger all the time”. However, he said Covid-19 was “still deadly and we can’t ignore the threat it poses”.
“If we act now we can stop the need to go further,” he said in relation to moving to Level 4 or Level 5.
There would be a time “where we don’t have to worry about carrying or transmitting the virus” but what happens next “rests in our own hands”, he added.
It is understood several Ministers spoke forcibly at a Cabinet meeting on Monday evening about people not taking the advice seriously. It is expected enforcement will include widespread Garda checkpoint in all counties.
NPHET advice
Earlier,the coalition party leaders met the chief medical officer Tony Holohan and other members of the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) to discuss its recommendation for an effective national lockdown for four weeks.
At present Dublin and Donegal are on Level 3 restrictions, with additional measures restricting pubs and restaurants to outdoor seating only in the capital. The rest of the country has been on Level 2.
A Government press conference is to be held on Monday night with Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly and other members of the Cabinet.
Earlier a Government source said the manner in which the latest NPHET recommendation was handled was a “bad day” for the effort against the pandemic because it had the effect of setting politicians against doctors in public for the first time.
That public divergence could have been avoided, said the source, if more “hard graft behind the scenes” had been carried out before anything had been made public.
NPHET on Sunday recommended that the whole country be moved to the highest level of restrictions in the Government’s Covid-19 roadmap amid concern over the spread of the disease and rising numbers in hospitals.
In a letter sent by NPHET to Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly on Sunday, seen by The Irish Times, the health body warns of a “significant and deteriorating” epidemiological situation.
“NPHET advises that it is vital to do everything in our power now (‘now’ is underlined in letter) to arrest the current trajectory nationally and suppress the virus back down to a low level of transmission in advance of the winter months.”
Level 5 would see a ban on all household visits and social or family gatherings, and only essential retail shops would be permitted to open. People would be advised to stay at home except for exercise within 5km of their home.
Only 10 people would be permitted to attend funerals and just six people would be allowed at weddings. Unlike the previous lockdown announced last March, schools, creches, and higher education institutions would remain open, with additional protective measures. Pubs, restaurants and cafes would move to offer takeaway services only, with no organised outdoor gatherings or sporting events to take place.
Dr Holohan chaired Sunday’s NPHET meeting, returning to his role as chief medical officer after stepping aside for a period for family reasons.
It is understood he reiterated the rationale behind the recommendation - which took the political system by surprise - at his meeting on Monday with Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan.
Consternation
There was consternation in Government circles on Sunday night when news of NPHET’s advice broke, given the social and economic impact of the months of severe restrictions had earlier this year.
Several sources were highly critical of NPHET for the sudden move, which had not been signalled in advance to Government. Two senior sources described the move as “irresponsible” while another senior figures said it was “completely bizarre”.
A meeting of an oversight committee, chaired by the country’s top civil servant Martin Fraser and involving the secretaries general of other relevant departments, was scheduled on Monday to discuss NPHET’s advice. The committee is tasked with considering how public health advice can be applied in practice.
A meeting of the Cabinet sub-committee on Covid-19 was due to take place after this followed by the full Cabinet meeting.
Resistance to the move to Level 5 is strong in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, while it is understood that the Green Party leader Eamon Ryan is concerned about any move to Level 5 because of the impact it would have on the economy and society.
Three senior sources said that there needed to be an immediate effort to increase ICU capacity in the system by making arrangements with private hospitals - as was done in the spring, though it was not utilised.
Restriction impact
HSE chief executive Paul Reid tweeted on Monday morning that there was obvious concern about Covid-19 trends and figures.
“But we also know the impacts of severe and regular restrictions in society on the public health, wellbeing, mental health and the economy. Level 5 recommendation to Government has to be considered in this context too,” he said.
Minister for Higher Education Simon Harris said he doubted "many of us got a night's sleep" after news of NPHET's recommendation emerged.
“So many worries & questions on people’s minds. Leaks & speculation don’t help. Today needs to bring clarity. Until then let’s focus on what we can control & what we can do - keep distance, reduce contacts, wear face coverings,” he tweeted.
Dr Mary Favier, a former Irish College of General Practitioners president who sits on NPHET, said the “inevitable truth” was a lockdown was needed to protect the country’s vulnerable healthcare system.
“The reality is that if we keep going the way we are, if you or I had a bad road traffic accident in November, or needed emergency cardiac surgery, there might not be an intensive care bed for you or I,” she told RTÉ Morning Ireland.
“GPs are concerned at what this winter is going to look like. It’s not just a fear, it’s a reality,” she said. The healthcare system was already under strain with both Covid and non-Covid cases, the GP said.
‘Political question’
Fianna Fáil TD Jim O’Callaghan said the Covid-19 response was a “political question that should be answered by weighing up the current and future threat posed by Covid against the current and future threat posed by the restrictions.”
“We can’t answer that question by only considering Covid,” he tweeted on Monday.
In the past month the five-day average of cases - one key metric tracked by NPHET - has gone from 99 a day to 463.
The national incidence rate of the virus has trebled from 31 cases per 100,000 in 14 days to 108.9 per 100,000. Dublin’s incidence rate has hit 172.8 cases per 100,000, with Donegal seeing 189 cases per 100,000 in the last 14 days.
Another trend that has added to public health officials’ concern is the steady increase in the number of Covid-19 admissions to hospital, and intensive care.
The number of people in hospital with Covid-19 has increased from 40 to 141 in the last month, with 21 patients now in intensive care units.
Prof Anthony Staines, a Dublin City University academic and public health expert, said it was clear "Covid-19 is out of control and is rising across the whole country."
“That’s been clear for some time, but whether we should be starting with Level 5 is a different question,” he told Newstalk Breakfast.
“I think the public is much less concerned about this than some elements within the business community and at least one element within the Cabinet. We’re going to need to do something because the number of cases is rising steadily, the number of admissions is rising steadily.”


theirishtimes--2020-10-05--Covid-19: What happens under Level 5 and why has NPHET sought more restrictions?

The National Public Health Emergency Team ( NPHET ) , concerned at the rise in Covid-19 cases , has recommended that the entire State be moved to the most severe level of restrictions contained in the Government ’ s five-stage roadmap for fighting the disease .
What exactly has NPHET asked the Government to do ?
NPHET met yesterday to consider the increase in cases after a further 613 were reported on Saturday , the highest number since April .
It met to discuss how the virus was spreading and its possible effect on the health system .
The team @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Level 5 , the highest alert level in the Government ’ s strategy , for four weeks .
This would be a marked escalation in the scale of the response , moving Dublin and Donegal from Level 3 and the rest of the country three from Level 2 .
The team ’ s meeting was chaired for the first time in three months by chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan , who has just returned after taking temporary leave for family reasons .
What happens under Level 5 ?
This level is as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdown experienced in March , April and early May when the pandemic was at its worst in the country .
No household visits or social or family gatherings would be permitted , indoors or outdoors .
Only six people would be permitted to attend a funeral and only 10 people are allowed at a wedding .
Only essential retailers would be permitted to open and people would be advised to stay home and can only exercise within 5km of their homes .
Public transport capacity would be reduced to 25 per cent and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , trams and trains except for essential purposes .
No indoor or outdoor organised gatherings or sporting events could take place .
Bars , pubs , cafes and restaurants would only be permitted to sell takeaways or to deliver food and drink .
All museums , galleries and other cultural attractions would be closed .
The main difference between a Level 5 lockdown and the first full lockdown is schools , creches and higher and adult education facilities would remain open , though with protective measures in place .
How serious a move @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in very significant changes to life in Ireland .
It would mean shutting off contact with anybody not in your household .
There would be no gatherings other than small numbers at funerals and weddings .
In counties other than Dublin and Donegal , it would mean 44 fewer people at weddings and funerals than is currently permitted .
It would result in the closure of all but essential businesses putting more people out of work again in businesses deemed non-essential .
It would amount to the most severe measures to stem the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s first lockdown started to be lifted almost five months ago .
Why has NPHET come to this view ?
All metrics used to track the disease have risen sharply over recent weeks as infections have increased as a result of greater numbers of contacts between members of the public .
In the past month , the five-day average of cases has gone from 99 a day to 463 a day , a near fivefold increase .
The number of cases over 14 days has more than trebled from 31 per 100,000 people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ individual counties have fared worse .
Dublin ’ s rate has increased from 53.1 cases per 100,000 a month ago to 172.8 cases over the weekend .
Outside of Dublin there have been alarming increases : Donegal ’ s rate has gone from 18.8 per 100,000 cases to 257.6 and Monaghan ’ s from 37.5 per 100,000 to 189 over the same period .
The number of people in hospital with Covid-19 on September 3rd was 40 .
That figure last night was 141 , a more than threefold increase .
The number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ care units has risen from seven a month ago to 21 .
There were 924 family outbreaks of the virus in September , compared with 530 in August .
Most significantly , deaths related to Covid-19 have started increasing .
There were 31 deaths reported by NPHET in September compared with 18 in August .
There were a further 10 deaths reported on Saturday , though eight of them occurred before September .
Will the Government now accept NPHET ’ s recommendation ?
Not necessarily .
The Covid-19 oversight group , which is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ highest ranking civil servants , will consider NPHET ’ s recommendation before it goes to Cabinet .
Following that process , the Government may decide to take more limited action based on not just the public health advice but the societal and economic impact of the measures .
What happens next then ?
It is hard to say .
NPHET ’ s recommendation took members of the Government by surprise last night with some remarking privately how difficult it would be to sell another effective lockdown to a public exhausted by the Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Government must not only weigh up the public health advice and the risks to people ’ s health and the hospital system but the effect of further restrictions on society and the economy .

In the past month, the five-day average of coronavirus cases has gone from 99 a day to 463 a day, a near fivefold increase. Photograph: Stephen Collins/Collins
The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET), concerned at the rise in Covid-19 cases, has recommended that the entire State be moved to the most severe level of restrictions contained in the Government’s five-stage roadmap for fighting the disease.
What exactly has NPHET asked the Government to do?
NPHET met yesterday to consider the increase in cases after a further 613 were reported on Saturday, the highest number since April. It met to discuss how the virus was spreading and its possible effect on the health system.
The team concluded that the State should move to Level 5, the highest alert level in the Government’s strategy, for four weeks.
This would be a marked escalation in the scale of the response, moving Dublin and Donegal from Level 3 and the rest of the country three from Level 2.
READ MORE
The team's meeting was chaired for the first time in three months by chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan, who has just returned after taking temporary leave for family reasons.
What happens under Level 5?
This level is as close as we can come to the lockdown experienced in March, April and early May when the pandemic was at its worst in the country.
No household visits or social or family gatherings would be permitted, indoors or outdoors. Only six people would be permitted to attend a wedding and only 10 people are allowed at a funeral.
Only essential retailers would be permitted to open and people would be advised to stay home and can only exercise within 5km of their homes.
Public transport capacity would be reduced to 25 per cent and people would be advised to avoid buses, trams and trains except for essential purposes.
No indoor or outdoor organised gatherings or sporting events could take place. Bars, pubs, cafes and restaurants would only be permitted to sell takeaways or to deliver food and drink. All museums, galleries and other cultural attractions would be closed.
The main difference between a Level 5 lockdown and the first full lockdown is schools, creches and higher and adult education facilities would remain open, though with protective measures in place.
How serious a move would this be?
It would result in very significant changes to life in Ireland. It would mean shutting off contact with anybody not in your household. There would be no gatherings other than small numbers at funerals and weddings.
In counties other than Dublin and Donegal, it would mean 40 fewer people at funerals than is currently permitted. It would result in the closure of all but essential businesses putting more people out of work again in businesses deemed non-essential.
It would amount to the most severe measures to stem the spread of Covid-19 since the Government’s first lockdown started to be lifted almost five months ago.
Why has NPHET come to this view?
All metrics used to track the disease have risen sharply over recent weeks as infections have increased as a result of greater numbers of contacts between members of the public.
In the past month, the five-day average of cases has gone from 99 a day to 463 a day, a near fivefold increase.
The number of cases over 14 days has more than trebled from 31 per 100,000 people nationally to 108.9 per 100,000. Some individual counties have fared worse.
Dublin’s rate has increased from 53.1 cases per 100,000 a month ago to 172.8 cases over the weekend. Outside of Dublin there have been alarming increases: Donegal’s rate has gone from 18.8 per 100,000 cases to 257.6 and Monaghan’s from 37.5 per 100,000 to 189 over the same period.
The number of people in hospital with Covid-19 on September 3rd was 40. That figure last night was 141, a more than threefold increase. The number of patients with Covid-19 in hospital intensive care units has risen from seven a month ago to 21.
There were 924 family outbreaks of the virus in September, compared with 530 in August.
Most significantly, deaths related to Covid-19 have started increasing. There were 31 deaths reported by NPHET in September compared with 18 in August. There were a further 10 deaths reported on Saturday, though eight of them occurred before September.
Will the Government now accept NPHET’s recommendation?
Not necessarily. The Covid-19 oversight group, which is made up of the State’s highest ranking civil servants, will consider NPHET’s recommendation before it goes to Cabinet. Following that process, the Government may decide to take more limited action based on not just the public health advice but the societal and economic impact of the measures.
What happens next then?
It is hard to say. NPHET’s recommendation took members of the Government by surprise last night with some remarking privately how difficult it would be to sell another effective lockdown to a public exhausted by the Covid-19 restrictions over the past six months.
The Government must not only weigh up the public health advice and the risks to people’s health and the hospital system but the effect of further restrictions on society and the economy.


theirishtimes--2020-10-05--Government to reform State’s personal insolvency regime

The Government is set to proceed with reforms to the State ’ s personal insolvency regime to allow full access to court protections for those struggling debtors hit by the Covid-19 pandemic .
Currently someone applying for a personal insolvency arrangement can seek a court review if their mortgage lender refuses what they believe to be a reasonable insolvency proposal .
However , in order to seek this review their mortgage arrears must date from before January 1st , 2015 .
This was initially introduced as the personal insolvency legislation was conceived to tackle the hangover of bad debt from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Justice Helen McEntee has obtained Government backing to introduce an amendment to the law governing personal insolvency which will open the full regime up to those whose mortgages have gone into arrears more recently .
Ms McEntee said the amendment Bill will tackle this and several other issues with the existing legislation .
“ In the context of the current pandemic these problems risk denying homeowners in difficulty the protection afforded by the personal insolvency Acts if they are struggling to pay what they owe.
” She said without a reform the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2015 would “ mean that a person who now finds themselves insolvent and in home mortgage arrears , arising from an unforeseeable loss of income , would be shut out from accessing this vital court protection .
We want to avoid such a scenario.
” The Minister is also working on a second wider personal insolvency Bill which she said would incorporate changes arising from the statutory review of the Act , which is currently under way .
The first Bill will also introduce a range of reforms designed to improve access to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as allowing advisory meetings between debtors and their financial advises to take place remotely , and allowing the extension of some procedural deadlines when exceptional pandemic-related circumstances arise .
Mortgage arrears have remained fairly steady through the first six months of the pandemic .
Data from the Central Bank shows that 5.6 per cent of loans secured on primary family homes were in arrears of over 90 days at the end of June .
This is in fact a slight decrease on the level in September 2019 .
Following talks between the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it emerged that generally available Covid-related breaks on mortgage payments will not be extended , although they may be considered on a case-by-case basis .
It has been suggested that more households will slip into arrears as payment breaks expire and the economic impact of the pandemic hits home .
Ms McEntee said the reform was “ the first delivery on our programme for government commitment to introduce necessary reforms to our personal insolvency legislation.
” The Bill is a priority for the autumn session , with Ms McEntee saying she is hopeful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

Helen McEntee: she said the reform was “the first delivery on our programme for government commitment to introduce necessary reforms to our personal insolvency legislation”. Photograph: Alan Betson
The Government is set to proceed with reforms to the State’s personal insolvency regime to allow full access to court protections for those struggling debtors hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Currently someone applying for a personal insolvency arrangement can seek a court review if their mortgage lender refuses what they believe to be a reasonable insolvency proposal.
However, in order to seek this review their mortgage arrears must date from before January 1st, 2015. This was initially introduced as the personal insolvency legislation was conceived to tackle the hangover of bad debt from the financial crisis.
However, Minister for Justice Helen McEntee has obtained Government backing to introduce an amendment to the law governing personal insolvency which will open the full regime up to those whose mortgages have gone into arrears more recently.
READ MORE
Ms McEntee said the amendment Bill will tackle this and several other issues with the existing legislation. “In the context of the current pandemic these problems risk denying homeowners in difficulty the protection afforded by the personal insolvency Acts if they are struggling to pay what they owe.”
She said without a reform the existing bar on mortgages in arrears since 2015 would “mean that a person who now finds themselves insolvent and in home mortgage arrears, arising from an unforeseeable loss of income, would be shut out from accessing this vital court protection. We want to avoid such a scenario.”
The Minister is also working on a second wider personal insolvency Bill which she said would incorporate changes arising from the statutory review of the Act, which is currently under way.
The first Bill will also introduce a range of reforms designed to improve access to the insolvency regime during Covid restrictions, such as allowing advisory meetings between debtors and their financial advises to take place remotely, and allowing the extension of some procedural deadlines when exceptional pandemic-related circumstances arise.
Family homes
Mortgage arrears have remained fairly steady through the first six months of the pandemic. Data from the Central Bank shows that 5.6 per cent of loans secured on primary family homes were in arrears of over 90 days at the end of June. This is in fact a slight decrease on the level in September 2019.
Following talks between the Government and the banks last week, it emerged that generally available Covid-related breaks on mortgage payments will not be extended, although they may be considered on a case-by-case basis.
It has been suggested that more households will slip into arrears as payment breaks expire and the economic impact of the pandemic hits home.
Ms McEntee said the reform was “the first delivery on our programme for government commitment to introduce necessary reforms to our personal insolvency legislation.”
The Bill is a priority for the autumn session, with Ms McEntee saying she is hopeful of receiving cross-party Oireachtas support for it.


theirishtimes--2020-10-05--Covid-19: Level 5 recommendation puts Government in ‘impossible position’

The entire country should be put on Level 5 restrictions for a period of four weeks , the Government has been told , in a move that has led to widespread shock and concern at the impact such restrictions could have .
While the country on Monday morning remains at Level 2 – or in Dublin and Donegal Level 3 – Government sources said the recommendation had put it in an “ impossible position ” .
Cabinet sources expressed deep concern about the impact on the economy and society moving to such a level of alert would entail , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the wider public .
The National Public Health Emergency Team ( NPHET ) met on Sunday to discuss the rising incidence of the virus , as well as the potential impact on the health system of escalating case numbers .
While there was a growing expectation on Sunday that some increase in the State ’ s alertness level was likely to be recommended , the suggestion of a full lockdown of the Republic took the country ’ s political leadership by surprise .
On Sunday evening , Cabinet sources expressed serious reservations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said : “ My worry is people won ’ t accept it .
People have just had it .
They find these restrictions very difficult ; not to have some limited form of human contact.
” The Minister said the only other country in the world with similar restrictions , if adopted , would be Israel .
Another said Cabinet would want an explanation of a “ blanket move ” to Level 5 .
There was also anger at how the news emerged through the media on Sunday evening , with Ministers saying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ place , and the move should have been communicated through an address to the nation by the Taoiseach .
Moving to Level 5 would entail no visitors being permitted in the home ; no gatherings except funerals or weddings , where only six people can attend ; no indoor events ; no sports events ; and bars , cafes and restaurants being open only for takeaway or delivery .
People would be advised to stay at home and exercise within only 5km of their home , and public transport avoided , with only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers .
Taoiseach Micheál Martin , Tánaiste Leo Varadkar and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan will meet chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan on Monday morning to discuss the recommendation .
After that , a full Cabinet meeting may follow , or the next steps may be discussed by the group of senior officials appointed to consider NPHET advice , or the Cabinet subcommittee on Covid , or both .
Elsewhere , the Government is set to reform the State ’ s personal insolvency regime to allow full access to court protection for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic .
Currently , debtors can seek to have a personal insolvency arrangement which has been rejected by their creditors , but only if their mortgage was in arrears before the start of 2015 .
Under plans being progressed by Minister for Justice Helen McEntee , this will be removed .
“ In the context of the current pandemic , these problems risk denying homeowners in difficulty the protection afforded by the Personal Insolvency Act if they are struggling to pay what they owe , ” she said .
Meanwhile , a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , fines or quarantine do not encourage people to behave in line with public health advice on Covid-19 .
The research of global attitudes was undertaken by academics at NUI Galway .
A total of 364 new cases of Covid-19 were reported in the State on Sunday , with no new deaths related to the condition .
Ten deaths were reported on Saturday .
The total number of Covid-19 related deaths in the Republic of Ireland remains at 1,810 , and the total number of confirmed cases stands at 38,032 .

Members of the Defence Forces at the drive-in Covid-19 testing centre at the Aviva Stadium on Sunday. Photograph:Stephen Collins/ Collins Photos Dublin
The entire country should be put on Level 5 restrictions for a period of four weeks, the Government has been told, in a move that has led to widespread shock and concern at the impact such restrictions could have.
While the country on Monday morning remains at Level 2 – or in Dublin and Donegal Level 3 – Government sources said the recommendation had put it in an "impossible position".
Cabinet sources expressed deep concern about the impact on the economy and society moving to such a level of alert would entail, as well as whether it would be accepted by the wider public.
Hospital Report
The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) met on Sunday to discuss the rising incidence of the virus, as well as the potential impact on the health system of escalating case numbers.
READ MORE
While there was a growing expectation on Sunday that some increase in the State’s alertness level was likely to be recommended, the suggestion of a full lockdown of the Republic took the country’s political leadership by surprise.
On Sunday evening, Cabinet sources expressed serious reservations about adopting the recommendation. One Minister said: “My worry is people won’t accept it. People have just had it. They find these restrictions very difficult; not to have some limited form of human contact.”
The Minister said the only other country in the world with similar restrictions, if adopted, would be Israel.
Anger over communication
Another said Cabinet would want an explanation of a “blanket move” to Level 5. There was also anger at how the news emerged through the media on Sunday evening, with Ministers saying a full Cabinet meeting should have taken place, and the move should have been communicated through an address to the nation by the Taoiseach.
Moving to Level 5 would entail no visitors being permitted in the home; no gatherings except funerals or weddings, where only six people can attend; no indoor events; no sports events; and bars, cafes and restaurants being open only for takeaway or delivery.
People would be advised to stay at home and exercise within only 5km of their home, and public transport avoided, with only 25 per cent capacity permitted for essential workers.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan will meet chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan on Monday morning to discuss the recommendation. After that, a full Cabinet meeting may follow, or the next steps may be discussed by the group of senior officials appointed to consider NPHET advice, or the Cabinet subcommittee on Covid, or both.
Personal insolvency
Elsewhere, the Government is set to reform the State’s personal insolvency regime to allow full access to court protection for those struggling debtors hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. Currently, debtors can seek to have a personal insolvency arrangement which has been rejected by their creditors, but only if their mortgage was in arrears before the start of 2015.
Under plans being progressed by Minister for Justice Helen McEntee, this will be removed. “In the context of the current pandemic, these problems risk denying homeowners in difficulty the protection afforded by the Personal Insolvency Act if they are struggling to pay what they owe,” she said.
Meanwhile, a new study has found that threat of arrests, fines or quarantine do not encourage people to behave in line with public health advice on Covid-19. The research of global attitudes was undertaken by academics at NUI Galway.
A total of 364 new cases of Covid-19 were reported in the State on Sunday, with no new deaths related to the condition. Ten deaths were reported on Saturday.
The total number of Covid-19 related deaths in the Republic of Ireland remains at 1,810, and the total number of confirmed cases stands at 38,032.


theirishtimes--2020-10-06--Lifestyle changes could prevent almost a third of cancers in Ireland - report

Three out of every 10 cancers in Ireland are potentially preventable through lifestyle changes , according to a new report .
About 6,200 cancer diagnoses a year are attributable to 11 “ modifiable ” risk factors , the report from the National Cancer Registry says .
Smoking , overweight and obesity , and infections were the top three modifiable risk factors for cancer in Ireland , together accounting for about 21 per cent of all cancers .
The report calls on public health representatives and policymakers to continue targeting these factors .
About one-eighth of cancer cases , or 2,800 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including passive smoking , the report says .
By 2035 , it is estimated that about 4,700 cases of invasive cancer per year will be attributable to smoking .
Lung cancer had the highest number of cases attributable to modifiable risk factors in both males and females , followed by colon cancer in males and breast cancer in females .
Over a 10-year period ending in 2035 , it is estimated that a cumulative total of 66,000 cancer cases ( 2026-2035 ) will be attributable to three of those factors alone — smoking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consumption .
This is the first analysis by the National Cancer Registry of the proportion of cancer cases attributable to modifiable risk factors .
The report says the figure of 29 per cent of cancers being potentially preventable is an underestimate , as risk associated with a person ’ s occupation was not taken into account .
In the UK , 4 per cent of cancers are attributable to this form of risk .
“ Additionally , everyday exposure to ultra-violet radiation was not included , only sunburn history and sunbed usage , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conclusive evidence on risk factors , may also be preventable.
” “ These figures could translate into tens thousands of cancer cases over the coming years and decades , depending on the timelines involved and how successful cancer prevention strategies and interventions are meantime , ” said lead author of the report , Dr Colette O ’ Neill .
Risk factors examined were : smoking , infection , being overweight or obese , alcohol consumption , sunburn and sunbed history , radiation , processed meat consumption , hormonal replacement therapy , oral contraceptive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particulate air pollution .

Three out of every 10 cancers in Ireland are potentially preventable through lifestyle changes, according to a new report.
About 6,200 cancer diagnoses a year are attributable to 11 "modifiable" risk factors, the report from the National Cancer Registry says.
Smoking, overweight and obesity, and infections were the top three modifiable risk factors for cancer in Ireland, together accounting for about 21 per cent of all cancers. The report calls on public health representatives and policymakers to continue targeting these factors.
About one-eighth of cancer cases, or 2,800 diagnoses, were attributable to smoking, including passive smoking, the report says. By 2035, it is estimated that about 4,700 cases of invasive cancer per year will be attributable to smoking.
READ MORE
Lung cancer had the highest number of cases attributable to modifiable risk factors in both males and females, followed by colon cancer in males and breast cancer in females.
Over a 10-year period ending in 2035, it is estimated that a cumulative total of 66,000 cancer cases (2026-2035) will be attributable to three of those factors alone — smoking, overweight and obesity, and alcohol consumption.
This is the first analysis by the National Cancer Registry of the proportion of cancer cases attributable to modifiable risk factors.
The report says the figure of 29 per cent of cancers being potentially preventable is an underestimate, as risk associated with a person’s occupation was not taken into account. In the UK, 4 per cent of cancers are attributable to this form of risk.
“Additionally, everyday exposure to ultra-violet radiation was not included, only sunburn history and sunbed usage, while some additional cancers, with less conclusive evidence on risk factors, may also be preventable.”
“These figures could translate into tens thousands of cancer cases over the coming years and decades, depending on the timelines involved and how successful cancer prevention strategies and interventions are meantime,” said lead author of the report, Dr Colette O’Neill.
Risk factors examined were: smoking, infection, being overweight or obese, alcohol consumption, sunburn and sunbed history, radiation, processed meat consumption, hormonal replacement therapy, oral contraceptive use, physical inactivity, and fine particulate air pollution.


theirishtimes--2020-10-06--Covid-19: Society split on remedy as Holohan returns to helm

Many people spent Monday scratching their heads trying to understand what had happened since last week to justify the National Public Health Emergency Team ’ s shock escalation of their concerns .
Last Thursday , acting chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn wrote to the Government noting a number of trends of concern but said “ the current epidemiological data does not strongly support a move to Level 3 nationally at this time ” .
Just three days later , chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan , back at the helm after a period of personal leave , recommended nationwide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In tone and content , the two letters are similar , and many of the trends highlighted by Holohan are the same as those mentioned by Glynn the week before , with some deterioration in figures over the few days .
However , the second letter highlights other trends not mentioned in the first , and these may have clinched the argument for the public health officials meeting on Sunday .
These include a “ sustained increase ” in cases among older people , seven new outbreaks in nursing homes last week and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in August to 34 in September .
Everyone is bound to be haunted by the scale of deaths that occurred in nursing homes last spring .
The spectre of a possible repeat of this fiasco must have loomed large when officials were considering what to do now .
Otherwise , the proposal to jump three levels of the Government ’ s framework plan makes no sense .
We are supposed to be nimble and agile in responding to this virus .
A stepwise approach would see areas constantly being bumped up and down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not lurching suddenly almost from one end of the spectrum of restrictions to the other .
An alternative explanation would look to the authors of the two letters ; the first written by an interim postholder , the second by an experienced and forthright chief medical officer well-versed in dealing with Ministers .
Dr Holohan ’ s prescription is , arguably , more internally consistent in that he paints a dire picture of the harms being wrought by the virus and then proposes administering strong medicine to deal with it .
Cases are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is ahead of the curve in entertaining proposals for a second lockdown .
Infections in Spain and France may be soaring , but other countries – Germany , Greece , most of the Nordic nations – seem to be coping with more modest increases .
In most of western Europe , death rates remain comparatively low despite the rise in cases .
For example , smaller countries such as Luxembourg and Iceland have higher case rates than Ireland , but virtually no deaths to speak of in recent months .
Here , officials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are inevitable , though this is not the experience of other countries .
It begs the question as to whether everything that could be done had been done to reform work practices and improve infection control in some nursing homes .
Maybe it is Ireland ’ s uniquely stretched health service that lies behind the decision to go for another lockdown .
Holohan ’ s letter refers to 243 out of 281 critical care beds currently being occupied ; it is easy to imagine capacity being exceeded should hospitalisations continue to rise .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ winter , elective work gets cancelled to free space for sick flu patients .
The same would happen with Covid-19 if pressure increases on ICU beds .
In addition , another 17 beds are supposed to be opened under the winter plan .
Does the system have enough capacity to withstand a significant rise in virus cases ?
We simply don ’ t know because the modelling that has been carried out has not been published .
And if it is a lack of ICU beds , then why aren ’ t more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t come cheap , but they cost a lot less than locking down an economy , forcing businesses to close and workers onto social welfare .
At best , Holohan ’ s forceful return to the public arena might serve to shock some people into better observance of social distancing rules .
It has also exposed a shambolic decision-making process that is ripe for reform .
In reality , it shows how split society is on how to deal with the virus , how much detail is still lacking on the overall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approach and how uncertain the way is out of this crisis .

Dr Tony Holohan: paints a dire picture of the harms being wrought by the virus and proposes administering strong medicine to deal with it. Photograph: Nick Bradshaw
Many people spent Monday scratching their heads trying to understand what had happened since last week to justify the National Public Health Emergency Team’s shock escalation of their concerns.
Last Thursday, acting chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn wrote to the Government noting a number of trends of concern but said “the current epidemiological data does not strongly support a move to Level 3 nationally at this time”.
Just three days later, chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan, back at the helm after a period of personal leave, recommended nationwide Level 5 measures for four weeks.
Hospital Report
In tone and content, the two letters are similar, and many of the trends highlighted by Holohan are the same as those mentioned by Glynn the week before, with some deterioration in figures over the few days.
READ MORE
However, the second letter highlights other trends not mentioned in the first, and these may have clinched the argument for the public health officials meeting on Sunday. These include a “sustained increase” in cases among older people, seven new outbreaks in nursing homes last week and a rise in deaths, from four in August to 34 in September.
Everyone is bound to be haunted by the scale of deaths that occurred in nursing homes last spring. The spectre of a possible repeat of this fiasco must have loomed large when officials were considering what to do now.
Sudden lurch
Otherwise, the proposal to jump three levels of the Government’s framework plan makes no sense. We are supposed to be nimble and agile in responding to this virus. A stepwise approach would see areas constantly being bumped up and down levels in accordance with prevailing trends, not lurching suddenly almost from one end of the spectrum of restrictions to the other.
An alternative explanation would look to the authors of the two letters; the first written by an interim postholder, the second by an experienced and forthright chief medical officer well-versed in dealing with Ministers. Dr Holohan’s prescription is, arguably, more internally consistent in that he paints a dire picture of the harms being wrought by the virus and then proposes administering strong medicine to deal with it.
Cases are rising generally across Europe, but Ireland is ahead of the curve in entertaining proposals for a second lockdown. Infections in Spain and France may be soaring, but other countries – Germany, Greece, most of the Nordic nations – seem to be coping with more modest increases.
In most of western Europe, death rates remain comparatively low despite the rise in cases. For example, smaller countries such as Luxembourg and Iceland have higher case rates than Ireland, but virtually no deaths to speak of in recent months.
Stretched health service
Here, officials constantly say cases among vulnerable older people are inevitable, though this is not the experience of other countries. It begs the question as to whether everything that could be done had been done to reform work practices and improve infection control in some nursing homes.
Maybe it is Ireland’s uniquely stretched health service that lies behind the decision to go for another lockdown. Holohan’s letter refers to 243 out of 281 critical care beds currently being occupied; it is easy to imagine capacity being exceeded should hospitalisations continue to rise.
Capacity is elastic, however. Every winter, elective work gets cancelled to free space for sick flu patients. The same would happen with Covid-19 if pressure increases on ICU beds. In addition, another 17 beds are supposed to be opened under the winter plan.
Does the system have enough capacity to withstand a significant rise in virus cases? We simply don’t know because the modelling that has been carried out has not been published.
And if it is a lack of ICU beds, then why aren’t more being provided? Critical care beds don’t come cheap, but they cost a lot less than locking down an economy, forcing businesses to close and workers onto social welfare.
At best, Holohan’s forceful return to the public arena might serve to shock some people into better observance of social distancing rules. It has also exposed a shambolic decision-making process that is ripe for reform.
In reality, it shows how split society is on how to deal with the virus, how much detail is still lacking on the overall costs and benefits of the public health-led approach and how uncertain the way is out of this crisis.


theirishtimes--2020-10-06--NPHET warned Government about seven new nursing home Covid-19 outbreaks

At least 45 further coronavirus cases were confirmed in nursing home residents in seven new outbreaks reported in the past week , the National Public Health Emergency Team told the Government .
The disclosure of the seven new outbreaks in nursing homes – eclipsing the number reported in each of the previous four weeks – was among the warnings made by NPHET as it recommended moving to Level 5 , the most severe restrictions , for four weeks to break transmission chains .
The Government rejected the recommendation and has decided to put the entire country on Level 3 restrictions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set at last month .
Under Level 3 restrictions , visits to nursing and care homes are suspended , aside from critical and compassionate reasons .
The State ’ s chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan told the Government in a letter that there were now 31 open outbreaks in nursing homes .
This is down from 38 at the end of last month .
An outbreak is declared closed when there are no new cases for 28 days .
Nursing homes are among the most susceptible congregated settings that are vulnerable to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the elderly population .
Residents of nursing homes account for more than half of the 1,810 virus-related deaths .
Fine Gael TD Fergus O ’ Dowd , a member of the Oireachtas Covid-19 committee , said the number of new outbreaks in nursing homes was a “ great worry ” .
“ They are the most vulnerable people in the country .
Any increase in Covid that gets in there can be obviously devastating for nursing homes , ” he said .
Tadhg Daly , chief executive of Nursing Homes Ireland , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ represent 80 per cent of the sector , said Dr Holohan expressly referencing seven new clusters and nursing homes in the letter was a “ cause of concern ” .
“ There is a responsibility on Irish society to redouble our efforts because community transmission is clearly the biggest predictor of an outbreak in a nursing home , ” he said .
Mr Daly welcomed NPHET ’ s close monitoring “ because at the outset of the pandemic one of our significant concerns was the focus was almost exclusively on the acute hospital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid-19 outbreaks over recent weeks include Kilminchy Lodge nursing home in Portlaoise , Co Laois , run by nursing home operator Brindley Healthcare , and Shannagh Bay nursing home in Bray , Co Wicklow .
The Laois Nationalist reported that Kilminchy Lodge had told relatives about 18 cases last Friday , though sources said that , including positive staff cases , the number was closer to 30 .
A spokeswoman for Kilminchy Lodge would not comment on the figures or the outbreak .
Requests for comment to Shannagh Bay ’ s owners Alan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ majority of residents at the home , which has about 40 residents , are believed to have tested negative for the virus .
Further tests have been carried out on staff and residents .
New HSE figures for the third cycle of serial testing of asymptomatic nursing home staff , aimed at identifying Covid-19 cases to prevent outbreaks , has shown an increased positivity rate on the previous two cycles of testing over the summer .
In the third cycle of mass testing across 568 homes since September , the HSE has so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 42,000 swabs , representing a positivity rate of 0.33 per cent .
The first cycle , in July , found 132 positives from 100,483 swabs , a rate of 0.13 per cent .
The second cycle , in August , found 111 positive cases from 57,458 swabs , a rate of 0.19 per cent .
If Covid-19 is detected in a nursing home staff member , all residents are checked by the HSE as part of outbreak testing .
Serial testing is regarded as an effective way to prevent outbreaks .

Under Level 3 restrictions, visits to nursing and care homes are suspended, aside from critical and compassionate reasons. Photograph: iStock
At least 45 further coronavirus cases were confirmed in nursing home residents in seven new outbreaks reported in the past week, the National Public Health Emergency Team told the Government.
The disclosure of the seven new outbreaks in nursing homes – eclipsing the number reported in each of the previous four weeks – was among the warnings made by NPHET as it recommended moving to Level 5, the most severe restrictions, for four weeks to break transmission chains.
The Government rejected the recommendation and has decided to put the entire country on Level 3 restrictions, the level Dublin and Donegal were set at last month.
Hospital Report
Under Level 3 restrictions, visits to nursing and care homes are suspended, aside from critical and compassionate reasons.
READ MORE
The State's chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan told the Government in a letter that there were now 31 open outbreaks in nursing homes. This is down from 38 at the end of last month.
An outbreak is declared closed when there are no new cases for 28 days.
‘Great worry’
Nursing homes are among the most susceptible congregated settings that are vulnerable to Covid-19 given its higher mortality rate amongst the elderly population.
Residents of nursing homes account for more than half of the 1,810 virus-related deaths.
Fine Gael TD Fergus O'Dowd, a member of the Oireachtas Covid-19 committee, said the number of new outbreaks in nursing homes was a "great worry".
“They are the most vulnerable people in the country. Any increase in Covid that gets in there can be obviously devastating for nursing homes,” he said.
Tadhg Daly, chief executive of Nursing Homes Ireland, the representative body for privately-owned nursing homes that represent 80 per cent of the sector, said Dr Holohan expressly referencing seven new clusters and nursing homes in the letter was a "cause of concern".
“There is a responsibility on Irish society to redouble our efforts because community transmission is clearly the biggest predictor of an outbreak in a nursing home,” he said.
Mr Daly welcomed NPHET’s close monitoring “because at the outset of the pandemic one of our significant concerns was the focus was almost exclusively on the acute hospital system”.
Nursing homes to report Covid-19 outbreaks over recent weeks include Kilminchy Lodge nursing home in Portlaoise, Co Laois, run by nursing home operator Brindley Healthcare, and Shannagh Bay nursing home in Bray, Co Wicklow.
The Laois Nationalist reported that Kilminchy Lodge had told relatives about 18 cases last Friday, though sources said that, including positive staff cases, the number was closer to 30.
A spokeswoman for Kilminchy Lodge would not comment on the figures or the outbreak.
Requests for comment to Shannagh Bay’s owners Alan and Pauline Smith went unanswered.
Testing
The majority of residents at the home, which has about 40 residents, are believed to have tested negative for the virus. Further tests have been carried out on staff and residents.
New HSE figures for the third cycle of serial testing of asymptomatic nursing home staff, aimed at identifying Covid-19 cases to prevent outbreaks, has shown an increased positivity rate on the previous two cycles of testing over the summer.
In the third cycle of mass testing across 568 homes since September, the HSE has so far found 138 positives after taking almost 42,000 swabs, representing a positivity rate of 0.33 per cent.
The first cycle, in July, found 132 positives from 100,483 swabs, a rate of 0.13 per cent. The second cycle, in August, found 111 positive cases from 57,458 swabs, a rate of 0.19 per cent.
If Covid-19 is detected in a nursing home staff member, all residents are checked by the HSE as part of outbreak testing. Serial testing is regarded as an effective way to prevent outbreaks.


theirishtimes--2020-10-06--How NPHET made a strong case for Level 5

By the time the National Public Health Emergency Team ( NPHET ) met on Sunday , one thing was clear : the measures in Dublin to curb the spread of Covid-19 weren ’ t working quickly enough .
The capital has been on Level 3 – with some added restrictions – for more than two weeks .
Acting chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn told the Oireachtas Covid-19 committee last week that meaningful change needed to be seen in the coming days .
The capital , he said on Wednesday , needed a “ significant improvement ” .
That was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Health Stephen Donnelly on Thursday , that Level 3 measures were not required countrywide , at which point data on the disease ’ s progression was based on the first half of last week .
However , as the data from the latter part of the week came in – and was poured over by NPHET – a view formed that the progress in Dublin wasn ’ t significant enough .
The rate of growth in the capital was slowing , but not going into reverse .
Elsewhere in the country , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In addition to this , as the chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan ’ s letter to Government outlines , there were concerns over the spread of the virus in the over 65s , the growing number of deaths and hospitalisations , and the testing positivity rate , which now stands at 3.6 per cent for the last seven days – higher than the average of 3.4 per cent for the entire pandemic .
All of these metrics indicated that the virus was gaining a foothold again .
Some participants in the meeting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to control the virus in the capital was an indication that Level 3 could not be relied on to suppress the virus at its current level .
As Holohan wrote to Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly on Sunday night : “ The measures currently in place are not sufficiently controlling the disease as evidenced by a high volume of community transmission and sustained increases across key indicators.
” The concern was such that two key aspects of the approach to controlling the virus – local measures and a graded response – were to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the view was that the strategy of local lockdowns or control measures works , but not in every circumstance .
In Laois , Offaly and Kildare , they were effective when there was a clear “ ground zero ” of infection , namely meat plants .
In Tipperary , an outbreak in a mushroom farm was contained without resorting to an official lockdown .
But in Dublin , the virus wasn ’ t present in one setting – it was present in every setting .
As the Covid committee were told last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but it also “ makes it more difficult to control because there is not one obvious target ” .
The virus was also growing nationally .
The average number of daily reported infections was now well in excess of 400 .
While some counties are not as badly affected , sources said that after a certain point , it becomes a problem that has to be addressed on a system-wide basis , as the pressure on the healthcare system is felt nationally , not locally .
NPHET ultimately decided – and members still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ levels would ultimately lead to the same destination : the harshest restrictions being put in place .
Holohan warned in his letter to Donnelly : “ [ A ] graduated approach will not have sufficient or timely impact on the trajectory and scale of the disease and will not protect the core priorities.
” The idea , sources say , was for a short , sharp break that would allow the country get the virus under control again before the Christmas break , and before the impact of winter truly hits health services @ @ @ @ @ @ @ December or even January .
The simplicity of a lockdown appealed both in practice and from a communications point of view .
There are ongoing concerns about the capacity of the Government and the health service to adequately convey clear messages about what activities are allowed , but it ’ s easy to understand a lockdown .
In the absence of going to Level 5 , and if measures announced by Government do not work , the view from NPHET is clear .
Cases will rise significantly , as will hospitalisations .
Modelling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ if current trends continue , 1,600-2,300 cases will be notified per day by November 7th .
The modelling also shows 43 people with Covid-19 being admitted to hospital per day by that date ” .
Whatever comes to pass , the past week – and the decisions taken – will doubtlessly resurface .

By the time the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) met on Sunday, one thing was clear: the measures in Dublin to curb the spread of Covid-19 weren't working quickly enough.
The capital has been on Level 3 – with some added restrictions – for more than two weeks. Acting chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn told the Oireachtas Covid-19 committee last week that meaningful change needed to be seen in the coming days. The capital, he said on Wednesday, needed a "significant improvement".
That was the hope when NPHET wrote to Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly on Thursday, that Level 3 measures were not required countrywide, at which point data on the disease's progression was based on the first half of last week.
Hospital Report
However, as the data from the latter part of the week came in – and was poured over by NPHET – a view formed that the progress in Dublin wasn’t significant enough. The rate of growth in the capital was slowing, but not going into reverse. Elsewhere in the country, the virus was growing more quickly.
READ MORE
In addition to this, as the chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan’s letter to Government outlines, there were concerns over the spread of the virus in the over 65s, the growing number of deaths and hospitalisations, and the testing positivity rate, which now stands at 3.6 per cent for the last seven days – higher than the average of 3.4 per cent for the entire pandemic. All of these metrics indicated that the virus was gaining a foothold again.
Some participants in the meeting also formed the view that the failure to control the virus in the capital was an indication that Level 3 could not be relied on to suppress the virus at its current level.
As Holohan wrote to Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly on Sunday night: “The measures currently in place are not sufficiently controlling the disease as evidenced by a high volume of community transmission and sustained increases across key indicators.”
The concern was such that two key aspects of the approach to controlling the virus – local measures and a graded response – were to be abandoned. According to well-placed sources, the view was that the strategy of local lockdowns or control measures works, but not in every circumstance. In Laois, Offaly and Kildare, they were effective when there was a clear "ground zero" of infection, namely meat plants.
In Tipperary, an outbreak in a mushroom farm was contained without resorting to an official lockdown. But in Dublin, the virus wasn't present in one setting – it was present in every setting. As the Covid committee were told last week, that means no big clusters but it also "makes it more difficult to control because there is not one obvious target".
The virus was also growing nationally. The average number of daily reported infections was now well in excess of 400. While some counties are not as badly affected, sources said that after a certain point, it becomes a problem that has to be addressed on a system-wide basis, as the pressure on the healthcare system is felt nationally, not locally.
Scale
NPHET ultimately decided – and members still believe – that moving through the different levels would ultimately lead to the same destination: the harshest restrictions being put in place. Holohan warned in his letter to Donnelly: “[A] graduated approach will not have sufficient or timely impact on the trajectory and scale of the disease and will not protect the core priorities.”
The idea, sources say, was for a short, sharp break that would allow the country get the virus under control again before the Christmas break, and before the impact of winter truly hits health services, which can be as late as December or even January. The simplicity of a lockdown appealed both in practice and from a communications point of view. There are ongoing concerns about the capacity of the Government and the health service to adequately convey clear messages about what activities are allowed, but it’s easy to understand a lockdown.
In the absence of going to Level 5, and if measures announced by Government do not work, the view from NPHET is clear. Cases will rise significantly, as will hospitalisations. Modelling, Holohan told Donnelly, shows that “if current trends continue, 1,600-2,300 cases will be notified per day by November 7th. The modelling also shows 43 people with Covid-19 being admitted to hospital per day by that date”.
Whatever comes to pass, the past week – and the decisions taken – will doubtlessly resurface.


theirishtimes--2020-10-06--After Brexit: Rosslare port in talks for new daily direct ferry to Continent

Rosslare Europort is in advanced talks with a shipping company to start a direct ferry service to continental Europe for hauliers looking to avoid any post-Brexit congestion on the UK landbridge .
The southeast port , the closest Irish port to mainland Europe , is in discussions with a new shipping line to start a six-days-a-week service before the transition period ends on December 31st .
Concerns about possible congestion at the Port of Dover from next year has led to calls from the haulage industry to establish a frequent ferry service direct to northern continental Europe .
These calls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government that there could be delays of two days with queues of 7,000 lorries in Dover in a scenario where the EU and UK fail to agree a trade agreement to reduce border checks once the transition period ends .
Glenn Carr , general manager of Rosslare Europe , said there may be capacity on the existing direct routes but hauliers want certainty and frequency beyond a three-days-a-week service .
“ There are not great options for the haulier , for the manufacturer , for the exporter , for the importer .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said Mr Carr .
“ While there might be capacity there it is the frequency and sailing time and speed of sailing time that is critical .
We need a frequent fast service to mainland Europe , and I am very hopeful that that is what we are going to deliver.
” He estimates that between 40,000 and 50,000 of the 150,000 to 170,000 lorry journeys a year crossing the UK landbridge to continental Europe – with two ferry services , across the Irish Sea and the English channel – could transfer to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cause delays .
The landbridge remains the cheapest and quickest route to continental Europe for Irish importers and exporters , but the prospect of two-day delays and long queues of trucks at Dover , a key crossing point for Irish transport companies , creates uncertainty for time-sensitive deliveries .
It takes 20 hours to reach continental Europe over the landbridge , but Mr Carr believes that the new six-days-a-week , roll-on , roll-off ferry service can make it to northern France in a similar time .
Hauliers want a regular direct service to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further along France ’ s coast to Calais or Dunkirk to put them directly on to main road networks into France , Belgium and The Netherlands to guarantee continued fast access to Europe if the UK becomes congested .
Mr Carr said he hoped the new service would be in place by the time the transition period ends , when the UK faces border checks after leaving the EU single market and customs union .
“ It can take a little bit of time to put a new service in place .
Waiting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ result in a further lead-in time to turn it all on , ” he said .
Ciarán O ’ Driscoll , a policy and Brexit research officer at European Movement Ireland who has studied transit routes , said he expected shipping lines to wait until the weeks and months after Brexit comes into effect before adding capacity on existing direct routes in a no-deal scenario .
“ The only situation where you would see an increase in the frequency of sailings from Ireland to the likes of France , Belgium or the Netherlands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those initial few months after a no-deal , ” he said .

Glenn Carr, general manager of Rosslare Europort. He says hauliers want certainty and frequency beyond a three-days-a-week service
Rosslare Europort is in advanced talks with a shipping company to start a direct ferry service to continental Europe for hauliers looking to avoid any post-Brexit congestion on the UK landbridge.
The southeast port, the closest Irish port to mainland Europe, is in discussions with a new shipping line to start a six-days-a-week service before the transition period ends on December 31st.
Concerns about possible congestion at the Port of Dover from next year has led to calls from the haulage industry to establish a frequent ferry service direct to northern continental Europe.
These calls have intensified with warnings from the UK government that there could be delays of two days with queues of 7,000 lorries in Dover in a scenario where the EU and UK fail to agree a trade agreement to reduce border checks once the transition period ends.
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Glenn Carr, general manager of Rosslare Europe, said there may be capacity on the existing direct routes but hauliers want certainty and frequency beyond a three-days-a-week service.
“There are not great options for the haulier, for the manufacturer, for the exporter, for the importer. There needs to be more choice,” said Mr Carr.
“While there might be capacity there it is the frequency and sailing time and speed of sailing time that is critical. We need a frequent fast service to mainland Europe, and I am very hopeful that that is what we are going to deliver.”
He estimates that between 40,000 and 50,000 of the 150,000 to 170,000 lorry journeys a year crossing the UK landbridge to continental Europe – with two ferry services, across the Irish Sea and the English channel – could transfer to direct ferry services if post-Brexit border checks cause delays.
The landbridge remains the cheapest and quickest route to continental Europe for Irish importers and exporters, but the prospect of two-day delays and long queues of trucks at Dover, a key crossing point for Irish transport companies, creates uncertainty for time-sensitive deliveries.
It takes 20 hours to reach continental Europe over the landbridge, but Mr Carr believes that the new six-days-a-week, roll-on, roll-off ferry service can make it to northern France in a similar time.
Road networks
Hauliers want a regular direct service to the French port of Le Havre or further along France's coast to Calais or Dunkirk to put them directly on to main road networks into France, Belgium and The Netherlands to guarantee continued fast access to Europe if the UK becomes congested.
Mr Carr said he hoped the new service would be in place by the time the transition period ends, when the UK faces border checks after leaving the EU single market and customs union.
“It can take a little bit of time to put a new service in place. Waiting to turn it on in January could result in a further lead-in time to turn it all on,” he said.
Ciarán O'Driscoll, a policy and Brexit research officer at European Movement Ireland who has studied transit routes, said he expected shipping lines to wait until the weeks and months after Brexit comes into effect before adding capacity on existing direct routes in a no-deal scenario.
"The only situation where you would see an increase in the frequency of sailings from Ireland to the likes of France, Belgium or the Netherlands is if the landbridge becomes untenable during those initial few months after a no-deal," he said.


theirishtimes--2020-10-05--Here's a solution to remote learning if schools shut: the humble TV

A recent study by the the Economic and Social Research Institute outlined the impact of coronavirus on young people ’ s lives .
It is fundamentally clear that schools are at the heart of the community and are not easily replaceable .
They are a keystone in the lives of families and provide a unique shared experience which contributes to a better society .
However , there has been a surge in applications to Tusla , the child and family agency , for homeschooling in Ireland .
Just over a month ago The Irish Times reported a backlog of at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be processed .
The number has since increased .
Many of these children are looking to be educated at home because it is a close family member who is in a high-risk group and not the child .
This means that once their application for homeschooling has been assessed , and their home has been approved , these children will then lose their place on the school register .
Should another school closure occur , the school is not required to include the child in online classes or to furnish any support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ State institutions step up and offer more support to families and school communities who find themselves in this situation .
As the winter flu season approaches , and coronavirus enters its second wave , it is critical that we look to a more solutions-focused interpretation of emergency teaching and learning during the pandemic .
Given the success of the RTÉ Home School Hub , we have clearly not exploited the potential of the humble TV set enough .
Nearly every home has one and connectivity is more assured .
Broadband blackspots also are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people to exploit this convenient medium .
Another consideration in favour of the television is the quality of its audio-visual delivery , unlike that of the internet which is often compromised due to heavy user traffic at key times throughout the day and limited bandwidth .
However , the focus in education over the last few years has been on the cult of the personal device .
In a recent edition of Leader magazine , published by the National Association of Principals and Deputy Principals , we wrote about device-led learning in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s vice-president , Michael Cregan .
Both RTÉ and TG4 homeschooling offerings during lockdown highlighted the role of television to provide commendable public service broadcasting .
This was a throwback to Telefís Scoile , a series launched in February 1964 to deliver educational programmes to secondary schools in literature , maths and science .
This culture of public education for the benefit of wider society continued into the 1990s .
Since the millennium , cheaper reality television has replaced much of these educational offerings .
TG4 has continued to support children learning at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the right direction but we urgently need more .
There is an appetite , not just among schoolgoers , but also among an emerging “ stay at home ” multigenerational demographic to consume and avail of lifelong learning opportunities .
In addition , there is an immediate need to establish a dedicated education channel to support continuity of studies for students of all levels , ages and abilities , including those preparing for Junior Cycle and Leaving Certificate exams .
This public service broadcasting must also address the needs of students and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may need to isolate at home during the pandemic .
In recent days , RTÉ has announced its decision to invest €3 million in digitising archive footage .
This has clear educational merit and will be very valuable in terms of social history .
Just as we ’ ve seen that there is an appetite for dedicated channels such as Oireachtas TV , it would make sense for such materials to be broadcast in a similar manner .
Due to accessibility issues , including poor broadband , the optimal medium available to all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of access .
It is not enough to merely provide these online .
It is imperative that such materials are curated in order to provide context and pathways to learning .
Digitised resources could be categorised and differentiated according to their relevance to primary and/or post-primary contexts including Junior Cycle and Leaving Certificate courses .
Their potential as resources for special educational needs learners would be of paramount importance .
Public service broadcasting with a focus on education during a pandemic could be the biggest gift to the nation .
Its benefits are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ solidarity and enriching society .
There is potential for this learning to be further supported and enhanced through the development of educational supplements with interactive activities which could be disseminated through national newspapers in the same way as exam supplements .
All of this does not take from online offerings , but merely extends possibilities to access knowledge and learning opportunities .
Our collective experiences and engagement with the television during times of crisis can offer solace and a sense of meitheal .
Dr Triona Hourigan is a secondary teacher at Laurel Hill @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lecturer in technical communication and instructional design at University of Limerick

A recent study by the the Economic and Social Research Institute outlined the impact of coronavirus on young people’s lives. It is fundamentally clear that schools are at the heart of the community and are not easily replaceable. They are a keystone in the lives of families and provide a unique shared experience which contributes to a better society.
However, there has been a surge in applications to Tusla, the child and family agency, for homeschooling in Ireland. Just over a month ago The Irish Times reported a backlog of at least 326 homeschooling applications by families waiting to be processed. The number has since increased.
Many of these children are looking to be educated at home because it is a close family member who is in a high-risk group and not the child. This means that once their application for homeschooling has been assessed, and their home has been approved, these children will then lose their place on the school register.
Should another school closure occur, the school is not required to include the child in online classes or to furnish any support materials. It is imperative that our State institutions step up and offer more support to families and school communities who find themselves in this situation.
READ MORE
RTÉ Home School Hub
As the winter flu season approaches, and coronavirus enters its second wave, it is critical that we look to a more solutions-focused interpretation of emergency teaching and learning during the pandemic.
TG4 has continued to support children learning at home. This is a positive step in the right direction but we urgently need more
Given the success of the RTÉ Home School Hub, we have clearly not exploited the potential of the humble TV set enough. Nearly every home has one and connectivity is more assured. Broadband blackspots also are not an issue, hence allowing more people to exploit this convenient medium. Another consideration in favour of the television is the quality of its audio-visual delivery, unlike that of the internet which is often compromised due to heavy user traffic at key times throughout the day and limited bandwidth. However, the focus in education over the last few years has been on the cult of the personal device.
In a recent edition of Leader magazine, published by the National Association of Principals and Deputy Principals, we wrote about device-led learning in the age of coronavirus with the association's vice-president, Michael Cregan.
Both RTÉ and TG4 homeschooling offerings during lockdown highlighted the role of television to provide commendable public service broadcasting. This was a throwback to Telefís Scoile, a series launched in February 1964 to deliver educational programmes to secondary schools in literature, maths and science.
This culture of public education for the benefit of wider society continued into the 1990s. Since the millennium, cheaper reality television has replaced much of these educational offerings. TG4 has continued to support children learning at home. This is a positive step in the right direction but we urgently need more.
Public service broadcasting with a focus on education during a pandemic could be the biggest gift to the nation
There is an appetite, not just among schoolgoers, but also among an emerging "stay at home" multigenerational demographic to consume and avail of lifelong learning opportunities. In addition, there is an immediate need to establish a dedicated education channel to support continuity of studies for students of all levels, ages and abilities, including those preparing for Junior Cycle and Leaving Certificate exams. This public service broadcasting must also address the needs of students and citizens with special educational learning needs who may need to isolate at home during the pandemic.
Educational merit
In recent days, RTÉ has announced its decision to invest €3 million in digitising archive footage. This has clear educational merit and will be very valuable in terms of social history. Just as we've seen that there is an appetite for dedicated channels such as Oireachtas TV, it would make sense for such materials to be broadcast in a similar manner.
Due to accessibility issues, including poor broadband, the optimal medium available to all is the television. This guarantees equity of access. It is not enough to merely provide these online. It is imperative that such materials are curated in order to provide context and pathways to learning. Digitised resources could be categorised and differentiated according to their relevance to primary and/or post-primary contexts including Junior Cycle and Leaving Certificate courses. Their potential as resources for special educational needs learners would be of paramount importance.
Public service broadcasting with a focus on education during a pandemic could be the biggest gift to the nation. Its benefits are tenfold in terms of wellbeing, community solidarity and enriching society. There is potential for this learning to be further supported and enhanced through the development of educational supplements with interactive activities which could be disseminated through national newspapers in the same way as exam supplements.
All of this does not take from online offerings, but merely extends possibilities to access knowledge and learning opportunities. Our collective experiences and engagement with the television during times of crisis can offer solace and a sense of meitheal.
Dr Triona Hourigan is a secondary teacher at Laurel Hill secondary school and Dr Ann Marcus-Quinn is lecturer in technical communication and instructional design at University of Limerick