theirishtimes--2020-12-31--Covid-19, cocooning, new normal – 10 phrases that defined 2020

Covid-19 : Originally known simply as the coronavirus , this was given the name Covid-19 by the World Health Organisation ( WHO ) on February 11th , 2020 .
The co stands for coronavirus , the vi for virus and the d for disease .
The number is the year in which it originated although it was only identified on New Year ’ s Eve 2019 .
It was not , as Simon Harris or US president Donald Trump stated , the 19th manifestation of the coronavirus .
Heaven help us had it been .
Its official name is SARS-CoV-2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The 2 is to distinguish it from the previous incarnation of coronavirus through the SARS pandemic of 2003 .
In 2020 there were almost 18,000 mentions of Covid-19 on The Irish Times website .
No story has dominated the headlines as much since the second World War .
New normal : The portmanteau phrase used to describe the bonkers new existence we have lived in for the last nine months .
Working from home , Zoom calls , seeing elderly relatives through Perspex screens , shuttered pubs and restaurants all became part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the phrase itself became so old and hackneyed that we needed a new phrase to describe the new normal .
In 2021 will be living in the “ post-new normal ” world ?
Cocooning : The word was first coined in the 1980s for those with apocalyptic inclinations who were stocking their basements with VCRs , tins of beans and bottled water while awaiting the nuclear holocaust .
It was resurrected in 2020 when people over the age of 70 and those under that age with serious underlying conditions were told by then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cocoon ” .
This meant avoiding other people , literally and figuratively , like the plague .
People over that age were told to stay indoors , have their shopping delivered and not venture out .
Some like the former RTÉ correspondent Charlie Bird baulked at the restrictions ; others were surprised when it was revealed that cocooning was advisory not mandatory .
Exponential growth : There have been many misused phrases in 2020 .
This was one of them .
The word exponential means having an exponent or to the power of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today and four have it tomorrow and eight the following day , it ’ s exponential growth , but it only works for low numbers .
If there are 100 cases today and 200 tomorrow , growth isn ’ t exponential .
It would need 10,000 cases to make growth exponential.The Covid-19 pandemic has been bad , but not that bad .
Social distancing : In 2020 normal human interactions became occasions of peril and sometimes of sin .
Many of us turned into the modern-day equivalent of the old parish priest beating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Smartphones were the valleys of the squinting windows for the 21st century .
We became suspicious of each other ’ s physical presence .
The definition of social distancing was keeping two metres apart from each other which meant no crowds and therefore no sporting events , no concerts , no plays , poetry readings , conferences , masses and for six months of the year – no school .
Being sociable in 2020 could lead to a bout of Covid-shaming .
Flattening the curve : In 2020 we all became coronabores forever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trends that followed .
From the beginning we were all told to flatten the curve .
The US Control of Disease Centre ( CDC ) defines the curve as a “ visual display of the onset of illness among cases associated with an outbreak ” .
Without restrictions the Covid-19 growth curve looks like a Coke Mentos rocket .
With restrictions it looked more like a Cavan drumlin .
Face coverings : Masks mostly , but also visors .
Masks are now so ubiquitous that it is hard to remember the time when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ At the beginning of the pandemic , the World Health Organisation advised against them on the basis that they would create a false sense of security and were ineffective unless worn properly .
In June , the WHO changed its stance citing new research .
“ WHO advises that governments should encourage the general public to wear masks where there is widespread transmission and physical distancing is difficult , such as on public transport , in shops or in other confined or crowded environments , ” its director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public transport in Ireland in July and in shops a month later .
R-rate : R stands for reproduction .
This is the rate at which the virus reproduces itself .
Also known as R-nought if you want to sound vaguely knowledgeable about it .
The best definition of it is in the 2011 film Contagion starring Kate Winslet which presciently predicted in a future global pandemic .
Life followed art with the Covid-19 pandemic .
The virus , if left unchecked , will have a reproduction rate of three meaning one infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A R-rate above 1 means , on average , a person with the disease is infecting at least one other person and the disease is spreading rapidly in the community , a R-rate below 1 means incidences of the disease are decreasing .
Community transmission : Of all the ways in which Covid-19 can spread itself , community transmission was the most worrying for health professionals .
Community transmission means nobody knows how somebody got the disease .
Contract Tracing : Throughout 2020 millions of people got the tap on the proverbial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they were a “ close contact ” of someone with Covid-19 .
Some people were surprised that the bar was quite high to be a close contact .
You have to spend more than 15 minutes of face-to-face contact within two metres of someone who has Covid-19 , indoors or outdoors .
The chances of catching Covid-19 in an outdoor setting is 18 times less than in it is indoors .
Wet pub : There were many surprises in 2020 .
One of them was the emergence of the phrase “ wet pub @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pubs all their lives blissfully unaware of this thing called a “ wet pub ” .
A wet pub , as opposed to a dry pub , surely a contradiction in terms , is a food that does not serve food .
They had a terrible time in 2020 .
Dublin “ wet pubs ” have been closed since March 12th .
On several occasions they were looking at opening up only to be thwarted by a rise in cases and another lockdown .
Wet pubs in rural Ireland opened on September 21st @ @ @ @ @ @ @ October .

Covid-19: Originally known simply as the coronavirus, this was given the name Covid-19 by the World Health Organisation (WHO) on February 11th, 2020. The co stands for coronavirus, the vi for virus and the d for disease. The number is the year in which it originated although it was only identified on New Year's Eve 2019. It was not, as Simon Harris or US president Donald Trump stated, the 19th manifestation of the coronavirus. Heaven help us had it been.
Its official name is SARS-CoV-2 standing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2. The 2 is to distinguish it from the previous incarnation of coronavirus through the SARS pandemic of 2003. In 2020 there were almost 18,000 mentions of Covid-19 on The Irish Times website. No story has dominated the headlines as much since the second World War.
New normal: The portmanteau phrase used to describe the bonkers new existence we have lived in for the last nine months. Working from home, Zoom calls, seeing elderly relatives through Perspex screens, shuttered pubs and restaurants all became part of the "new normal" until the phrase itself became so old and hackneyed that we needed a new phrase to describe the new normal. In 2021 will be living in the "post-new normal" world?
Cocooning: The word was first coined in the 1980s for those with apocalyptic inclinations who were stocking their basements with VCRs, tins of beans and bottled water while awaiting the nuclear holocaust. It was resurrected in 2020 when people over the age of 70 and those under that age with serious underlying conditions were told by then Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in March to "cocoon".
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This meant avoiding other people, literally and figuratively, like the plague. People over that age were told to stay indoors, have their shopping delivered and not venture out. Some like the former RTÉ correspondent Charlie Bird baulked at the restrictions; others were surprised when it was revealed that cocooning was advisory not mandatory.
Exponential growth: There have been many misused phrases in 2020. This was one of them. The word exponential means having an exponent or to the power of. Hence if two people have Covid-19 today and four have it tomorrow and eight the following day, it's exponential growth, but it only works for low numbers. If there are 100 cases today and 200 tomorrow, growth isn't exponential. It would need 10,000 cases to make growth exponential.The Covid-19 pandemic has been bad, but not that bad.
Social distancing: In 2020 normal human interactions became occasions of peril and sometimes of sin. Many of us turned into the modern-day equivalent of the old parish priest beating courting couples out of the bushes. Smartphones were the valleys of the squinting windows for the 21st century. We became suspicious of each other's physical presence.
The definition of social distancing was keeping two metres apart from each other which meant no crowds and therefore no sporting events, no concerts, no plays, poetry readings, conferences, masses and for six months of the year – no school. Being sociable in 2020 could lead to a bout of Covid-shaming.
Flattening the curve: In 2020 we all became coronabores forever obsessing about the daily figures and the trends that followed. From the beginning we were all told to flatten the curve. The US Control of Disease Centre (CDC) defines the curve as a "visual display of the onset of illness among cases associated with an outbreak". Without restrictions the Covid-19 growth curve looks like a Coke Mentos rocket. With restrictions it looked more like a Cavan drumlin.
Face coverings: Masks mostly, but also visors. Masks are now so ubiquitous that it is hard to remember the time when the jury was out on them. At the beginning of the pandemic, the World Health Organisation advised against them on the basis that they would create a false sense of security and were ineffective unless worn properly.
In June, the WHO changed its stance citing new research. "WHO advises that governments should encourage the general public to wear masks where there is widespread transmission and physical distancing is difficult, such as on public transport, in shops or in other confined or crowded environments," its director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said then. Masks were made mandatory on public transport in Ireland in July and in shops a month later.
R-rate: R stands for reproduction. This is the rate at which the virus reproduces itself. Also known as R-nought if you want to sound vaguely knowledgeable about it. The best definition of it is in the 2011 film Contagion starring Kate Winslet which presciently predicted in a future global pandemic. Life followed art with the Covid-19 pandemic.
The virus, if left unchecked, will have a reproduction rate of three meaning one infected person passes it on to three others. A R-rate above 1 means, on average, a person with the disease is infecting at least one other person and the disease is spreading rapidly in the community, a R-rate below 1 means incidences of the disease are decreasing.
Community transmission: Of all the ways in which Covid-19 can spread itself, community transmission was the most worrying for health professionals. Community transmission means nobody knows how somebody got the disease.
Contract Tracing: Throughout 2020 millions of people got the tap on the proverbial shoulder from healthcare professionals to tell them they were a "close contact" of someone with Covid-19. Some people were surprised that the bar was quite high to be a close contact. You have to spend more than 15 minutes of face-to-face contact within two metres of someone who has Covid-19, indoors or outdoors. The chances of catching Covid-19 in an outdoor setting is 18 times less than in it is indoors.
Wet pub: There were many surprises in 2020. One of them was the emergence of the phrase "wet pub". Irish people have been frequenting pubs all their lives blissfully unaware of this thing called a "wet pub". A wet pub, as opposed to a dry pub, surely a contradiction in terms, is a food that does not serve food. They had a terrible time in 2020. Dublin "wet pubs" have been closed since March 12th. On several occasions they were looking at opening up only to be thwarted by a rise in cases and another lockdown. Wet pubs in rural Ireland opened on September 21st only to be shut again in early October.


theirishtimes--2020-12-31--Covid-19: Creches and childcare facilities opening this week ‘beggars belief’, sector says

The decision to reopen crèches and childcare facilities next week despite keeping schools shut “ beggars belief ” and has “ no rationale ” , representatives from the sector have said .
On Wednesday , Taoiseach Micheál Martin announced primary and secondary schools would remain closed until January 11th , having been expected to reopen on January 4th or 6th , depending on the school .
The decision to delay reopening was made at a hastily convened Cabinet meeting on Wednesday following an increase in the number of cases of Covid-19 , the highest number of hospitalisations since May and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases in the past week .
However , the delayed reopening does not apply to early years facilities such as crèches and childcare premises – a move which has been criticised by those in the sector .
Minister for Children Roderic O ’ Gorman had a meeting with representative bodies on Thursday afternoon to discuss the issue .
Teresa Heeney , chief executive of Early Childhood Ireland , the leading organisation in the early years sector , said the meeting resulted in a “ unanimous call ” from all groups to understand the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also called for the decision to be reversed , and to allow crèches and childcare facilities to remain closed until January 11th , like schools .
“ This sector has been following the exact same trajectory , the same conditions , the same public health advice since Covid .
We ’ ve followed very , very strict public health guidelines , and to change that journey is bizarre , ” Ms Heeney said .
“ If it has been deemed necessary for schools to have 10 days to reopen safely , how can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ school age services ?
Early Childhood Ireland is asking why the same decision has not been made for those who work in early years and childcare settings.
” Ms Heeney said Minister O ’ Gorman confirmed that if a different decision is taken on January 11th in relation to the reopening of schools , early years services would follow that same decision .
The representatives said they are expecting a communication from the department later on Thursday .
Earlier , the Siptu trade union , which also met with the Minister , called @ @ @ @ @ @ @ An online petition calling on the Minister to push back the reopening date for the early years sector had more than 8,000 signatures by lunch time on Thursday .
Siptu head of organising Darragh O ’ Connor said Mr Martin told the nation that the reopening of primary and secondary schools will be delayed to allow families to minimise their contacts and allow schools implement new Covid-19 protective measures .
“ The reality is that early years educators and parents face the exact same challenges .
However as it stands the early years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ January 4th.
” He added : “ Siptu is demanding that the start date is pushed back to coincide with the reopening of schools and that equal treatment for early years educators is applied to ensure the same protections can be implemented and people are kept safe.
” Early years educator and Siptu member Clare Casey said people working in the sector “ should be treated with the same respect shown to other educators ” .
“ As an educator , I experience the same fears around contracting Covid-19 as my colleagues in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I work in a creche doesn ’ t mean I am immune to catching this deadly virus.
” The Department of Children did not respond to a request for comment at the time of publication .

After a meeting with the department on Friday early-learning representatives said the closure will also be extended to early childhood education and care facilities. File photograph: Getty
Closure of the pre-school programme will be extended until January 11th in line with primary and secondary schools.
This latest move comes in an attempt to reduce the spread of coronavirus, according to the Department of Children.
On Wednesday, Taoiseach Micheál Martin announced that primary and secondary schools would remain closed until January 11th. They had been scheduled to reopen on January 4th or 6th, depending on the school.
The decision to delay reopening was made at a hastily convened Cabinet meeting on Wednesday following an increase in Covid-19 infections. It was the highest number of hospitalisations since May and there has been a massive rise in referrals of suspected cases in the past week.
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However, the delayed reopening did not apply to early-years facilities such as creches and childcare premises – a move criticised by those in the sector who said their exclusion from the new public health rules had “no rationale”.
Following a meeting with the department on Friday representatives from the sector said this closure will also be extended to early childhood education and care facilities.
The department said representatives from the advisory group shared their concerns about full resumption of early learning and childcare from the beginning of January.
“While accepting the need to maintain early learning and childcare for priority groups, the advisory group asked that the pre-school programme [Early Childhood Care and Education] would be aligned with the reopening of schools on 11 January,” it noted.
The department also said its Minister, Roderic O’Gorman, has agreed with Cabinet colleagues that the pre-school programme can resume on January 11th.
“By postponing the return of these children to the pre-school programme, social mixing will be reduced, which will help to prevent the spread of Covid-19 in the post-Christmas period,” it said.
“The pre-school programme will now resume on January 11th, in line with the reopening of schools. The Department of Children . . . will provide funding to providers for the pre-school programme for the week of 4 to 8 January.”
However the department said that under Level 5, early learning and childcare services that provide services other than, or in addition to, the pre-school programme can continue to operate.
“These services provide an essential service which supports parents to go to work. The Minister is asking these services, which are private businesses, to reopen as planned from January 4th to provide childcare, particularly to priority groups,” it said
“The department will provide guidance to services on how to prioritise demand for places in their services, if they are short staffed and unable to reopen with a full staff complement for the week of 4 to 8 January.”
Previously, Early Childhood Ireland and trade union Siptu criticised the Government's decision not to compel the early-years sector to abide by the same public health rules as schools.
Chief executive of Early Childhood Ireland Teresa Heeney said it "beggars belief" that early years were not included in the announcement, and that the decisions had "no rationale".
An online petition calling on the Minister to push back reopening for the early-years sector had more than 10,000 signatures by Friday afternoon.
Siptu head of organising Darragh O'Connor said the union is demanding "equal treatment" for early-years educators and to ensure "the same protections can be implemented" to keep those workers safe.


theirishtimes--2020-12-31--Coronavirus: Hospital numbers surge to nearly 500 as Level 5 lockdown comes into effect

The number of people being treated in hospital in the Republic for Covid-19 reached almost 500 on Thursday , almost doubling over the last seven days , with a warning from Taoiseach Micheál Martin that the numbers will deteriorate further in the coming days .
Ireland began a full Level 5 lockdown at midnight with non-essential retail , gyms , leisure centres and swimming pools closing from close of business on Thursday .
And as an indication of the deteriorating situation in the State Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said on Thursday that the restrictions could be in place @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the start of the pandemic .
“ I can ’ t rule that out , I couldn ’ t rule that out - but at the moment , we have a four-week opportunity .
I know this wouldn ’ t be possible - but if every single person could isolate themselves from every other person in the population for a period of 14 days , the whole infection would disappear , ” he told Newstalk ’ s Late Breakfast with Mark Cagney .
“ At the moment I ’ m not able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that suggests that this is slowing down , unfortunately .
With that very high level of infection it ’ s going to take quite an amount of time - if I can say - to wash that level of infection out of the population .
“ So we have it all to do in the four weeks until the end of January.
” The announcement of the third lockdown by Mr Martin came after rapid spread of the disease over the Christmas period .
For the second day in a row on Wednesday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the virus was set , with 1,718 positive tests reported .
Another 13 Covid-related deaths were also confirmed .
The R number , indicating how many people are being infected from a positive case , is now between 1.6 and 1.8 .
“ The numbers will deteriorate further over the coming days , ” Mr Martin said in a televised address to the nation at 6pm on Wednesday .
“ With the disease spreading much faster , the threat of our health system being overwhelmed and the risk of increased sickness and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is obvious , ” he added .
“ The truth is , that with the presence of the new strain and the pace of growth , this is not a time for nuance in our response .
We must apply the brakes to movement and physical interaction across the country.
” He said the next month “ as we face into these strictest controls in the depth of winter , is going to be very tough for everyone.
” However he said there was light at the end of the tunnel , after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effort by the most talented scientific minds on earth , we have safe and effective vaccines.
” The latest HSE Daily Operations Report published on Thursday morning showed there were 466 people being treated in hospital across the Republic at 8pm on Wednesday night , an increase from 253 a week ago , representing an increase of more than 80 per cent .
There were 188 suspected cases in hospital , compared to 111 a week ago .
Last night there were 39 people being treated in ICU , with 20 ventilated cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 15 a week ago .
As of this morning , there are 491 confirmed Covid-19 cases in hospital , with 39 remaining in ICU .
More than 100,000 tests have been carried out over the last seven days , with a positivity rate of 10.5 per cent , according to the Government ’ s Covid-19 Data Hub .
Dr Holohan said earlier on Thursday that the roll-out of the Covid-19 vaccine will be reported to make the public aware of the progress of the programme .
People can be assured that the programme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccination figures , he told RTÉ radio ’ s Morning Ireland .
Dr Holohan defended the pace of the roll out of the vaccination programme saying it could be damaging if it was not done properly .
The programme will be operated to the highest standards , he added .
However , the CMO warned that vaccination was not a reason for people not to take action now .
He called on everybody to “ go back to the basic public health measures ” – to stay at home , avoiding social contacts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the Government had not taken the National Public Health Emergency Team ’ s advice in early December not to open the hospitality sector , Dr Holohan said that it was Nphet ’ s job to monitor the situation and make recommendations while the Government had a different job to do involving a whole range of issues , including the economic impact .
That was what the Government had done , he said .
“ Now it is back to us as individual citizens to take responsibility to limit transmission .
Now is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If we each do what we can we can protect public health.
” The rise in figures recently had come about because the average number of contacts had increased sharply .
The public had engaged in an increased amount of social activity which gave an opportunity for the virus to spread .
The basic measures of staying home , avoiding social contacts were important and were effective irrespective of the variation or different strains of the virus .
The measures that we need to take are the same .
It was not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We know enough to tell us what to do as individuals .
“ Every one of us must look to our own behaviour .
This is an opportunity to take action that can end transmission patterns .
“ The message has got to be what to do going forward , not looking back .
The basic objectives are to keep transmission at relatively low levels and to reduce hospitalisations and prevent the wave of mortalities that Europe has seen .
”

Taoiseach Micheál Martin has announced the return of Level 5 Covid-19 restrictions for "at least one month", warning that measures to combat the spread of coronavirus are likely to continue after January 31st. Video: AFP
A further 1,620 cases of coronavirus and 12 more deaths were reported by the National Public Health Emergency Team on Thursday.
There have now been 91,772 cases of coronavirus reported in the Republic since the start of the pandemic last March, and 2,237 deaths.
Of the cases notified today, 794 are men and 819 are women, 65 per cent are under 45 years of age wih the median age 34 years. A total of 498 were in Dublin, 203 in Limerick, 89 in Galway, 73 in Cork, 67 in Mayo and the remaining 690 cases are spread across all other counties.
Hospital Report
HSE has just confirmed to me that the plan for next week is now to vaccinate 20,000 people. This includes nursing homes & healthcare workers in all 7 hospital groups.
This week's schedule includes vaccinations right through the weekend.
Huge credit to all involved pic.twitter.com/rBfJ7AkD1C — Stephen Donnelly (@DonnellyStephen) December 31, 2020
As of 2pm today, 490 Covid-19 patients are hospitalised, of which 42 are in ICU, with 58 additional hospitalisations in the past 24 hours, Nphet said.
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[ Q&A: Everything you need to know about the third lockdown ]
Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said the "alarming escalation in the incidence of the virus in the general population gives great cause for concern.
“This disease is now widespread in our communities and as a result we are asking everyone to behave as if they are a close contact,” he added.
“To support the testing system through this surge, we are no longer advising close contacts of confirmed cases to get tested. Testing and tracing is an exercise in containment and we are no longer in a containment phase. However, it is imperative that if you are a close contact of a confirmed case you restrict your movements and contact your GP immediately if you develop symptoms.”
The number of positive cases is higher than has been reported, due to a lag between a test coming back positive and being reported in the system. Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA Wire
Under-reported cases
The number of positive cases of Covid-19 is under-reported by an estimated 4,000, due to delays in recording positive test results on the system over the Christmas period, a senior public health official has said.
Professor Philip Nolan, chair of the Nphet Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said the epidemiological situation has deteriorated rapidly over the past week, and that we are “clearly in the midst of the third wave”.
He said the reproductive number is at least 1.6 to 1.8, and the daily growth rate is estimated at 7 to 10 per cent, giving a doubling time of seven to 10 days.
However, Prof Nolan said the number of positive cases is higher than has been reported, due to a lag between a test coming back positive and being reported in the system.
He said this situation arose because “very few people” presented for tests on Christmas, Eve, Christmas Day and St Stephen’s Day. However, immediately after Chrsistmas, there were very large numbers testing.
“We know of additional positive tests that have yet to be reported on the system in recent days,” he told the Nphet briefing on Thursday. This system wasn’t designed to report 2,000, 3,000 or 4,000 tests per day,” he said.
Prof Nolan said that this lag “in no way interferes” with identifying cases, but acknowledged the epidemiological situation is “somewhat worse” than has been reported.
Rise in contacts
Dr Holohan said the average number of contacts per case had risen from 2.5 in November to an average in recent days of 6.3. “This is very far from where we need to be and I am appealing to everyone at every age to adhere to the mandated restrictions that the Government has introduced – stay at home, except for essential reasons, other than for exercise up to 5km.”
Prof Nolan said: “The epidemiological situation is very serious and the virus is spreading rapidly amongst all age groups, increasing the risk to those most vulnerable to severe infection, such as the medically vulnerable and people over 60 years of age. The reproduction number is at least 1.6-1.8. The daily growth rate is estimated now at 7 per cernt -10 per cent giving a doubling time of 7-10 days or less.
“We project significant further increase in cases and hospitalisations in the coming days before public health measures take effect and are likely to see over 700-1000 people in hospital with Covid-19 early in the New Year.
“While it is difficult to face into further restrictions, it is vital that everyone plays their part by following the public health advice to protect those most vulnerable in the population.”
Eleven new deaths and 1,929 new cases of Covid-19 were reported in the past 24 hours in Northern Ireland, according to the Department of Health there.
Ireland began a full Level 5 lockdown at midnight with non-essential retail, gyms, leisure centres and swimming pools closing from close of business on Thursday.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin arriving to address the nation at Government Buildings, Dublin on Wednesday. Photograph: Julien Behal Photography/Handout
Third lockdown
The announcement of the third lockdown by Mr Martin came after rapid spread of the disease over the Christmas period.
“The numbers will deteriorate further over the coming days,” Mr Martin said in a televised address to the nation at 6pm on Wednesday.
“With the disease spreading much faster, the threat of our health system being overwhelmed and the risk of increased sickness and death among our vulnerable and older populations is obvious,” he added.
“The truth is, that with the presence of the new strain and the pace of growth, this is not a time for nuance in our response. We must apply the brakes to movement and physical interaction across the country.”
He said the next month “as we face into these strictest controls in the depth of winter, is going to be very tough for everyone.”
However he said there was light at the end of the tunnel, after a year of the “most extraordinary effort by the most talented scientific minds on earth, we have safe and effective vaccines.”
Meanwhile on Wednesday, Minsiter for Health Stephen Donnelly tweeted that the HSE plans to administer 20,000 vaccines in Ireland next week. The HSE confirmed that this round of inoculations will include nursing homes and healthcare workers.


theirishtimes--2020-12-31--Return to school in Northern Ireland delayed by a week

Eleven new deaths and 1,929 new cases of Covid-19 have been reported in the past 24 hours in Northern Ireland , according to the North ’ s Department of Health .
It comes as schools in Northern Ireland will deliver remote learning in the first week of the new term after a return to classrooms was delayed due to spiralling Covid-19 infection rates .
The announcement by the North ’ s Education Minister Peter Weir will affect both primary and secondary schools .
For secondary school Years 8 to 11 , remote learning will continue throughout January .
Schools will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and those of key workers .
Childcare settings , including those attached to schools , pre-school facilities , nurseries and special schools , will also open as usual next week .
Mr Weir had been facing mounting pressure to delay the return to school after the Christmas holidays due to the worsening infection rates in Northern Ireland .
On Wednesday , the region reported a record 2,143 cases in a 24-hour period .
Prior to Mr Weir ’ s announcement , the Stormont Assembly had already been recalled for a hearing on Thursday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Weir said exams due in January would take place compliant with public health advice .
He said schools would have flexibility to deliver face-to-face learning for pupils due to sit those exams if they wished .
“ The Department of Education , the Department of Health , the Education Authority and the Public Health Agency have worked closely throughout the pandemic to maintain the education of children , to reduce the risk of outbreaks and to respond when these occur , ” he said .
“ This work has continued in recent weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ informed by the evidence and the advice provided .
“ The common aim has been to keep schools safe , prioritise children ’ s education and ensure any impact on overall transmission is as low as possible , while accepting that schools reopening as normal is not sustainable.
” Mr Weir continued : “ While previous arrangements have been informed by the advice of the Department of Health , unfortunately the deteriorating nature of the epidemic and the risks to public health has necessitated more substantial changes .
“ Therefore , having considered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Dr Michael McBride ) and the chief scientific adviser ( Professor Ian Young ) , and following discussions with them , I have decided that all primary and post-primary pupils will be taught remotely for the first week of term .
Special schools and childcare provision will , however , remain open .
“ All schools must provide supervised learning for vulnerable children and key workers ’ children .
“ I must stress that these decisions are not made lightly as I know the negative impact on children ’ s learning and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in school .
“ However , particularly after unprecedented levels of positive Covid-19 tests since Christmas , and the pressure this applies to our health service , it is critical that we all must consider the public health and scientific advice as we look forward to brighter days ahead.
” – PA

Prior to Peter Weir’s announcement, the Stormont Assembly had already been recalled for a hearing on Thursday to discuss school reopening issue. Photograph: iStock
Eleven new deaths and 1,929 new cases of Covid-19 have been reported in the past 24 hours in Northern Ireland, according to the North's Department of Health.
Hospital bed occupancy is running at 467, with 34 in an intensive care unit and 27 on a ventilator.
Overall bed occupancy, including non-Covid patients, is at 100 per cent, with only six unoccupied.
A total of 107 care home Covid outbreaks are being addressed.
READ MORE
It comes as schools in Northern Ireland will deliver remote learning in the first week of the new term after a return to classrooms was delayed due to spiralling Covid-19 infection rates.
The announcement by the North's Education Minister Peter Weir will affect both primary and secondary schools.
For secondary school Years 8 to 11, remote learning will continue throughout January.
Schools will open next week to accommodate vulnerable children and those of key workers.
Childcare settings, including those attached to schools, pre-school facilities, nurseries and special schools, will also open as usual next week.
Mr Weir had been facing mounting pressure to delay the return to school after the Christmas holidays due to the worsening infection rates in Northern Ireland.
On Wednesday, the region reported a record 2,143 cases in a 24-hour period.
Prior to Mr Weir's announcement, the Stormont Assembly had already been recalled for a hearing on Thursday to discuss school reopening issue.
Mr Weir said exams due in January would take place compliant with public health advice.
He said schools would have flexibility to deliver face-to-face learning for pupils due to sit those exams if they wished.
"The Department of Education, the Department of Health, the Education Authority and the Public Health Agency have worked closely throughout the pandemic to maintain the education of children, to reduce the risk of outbreaks and to respond when these occur," he said.
“This work has continued in recent weeks and the proposed way forward has been informed by the evidence and the advice provided.
“The common aim has been to keep schools safe, prioritise children’s education and ensure any impact on overall transmission is as low as possible, while accepting that schools reopening as normal is not sustainable.”
Mr Weir continued: “While previous arrangements have been informed by the advice of the Department of Health, unfortunately the deteriorating nature of the epidemic and the risks to public health has necessitated more substantial changes.
“Therefore, having considered the advice from the chief medical officer (Dr Michael McBride) and the chief scientific adviser (Professor Ian Young), and following discussions with them, I have decided that all primary and post-primary pupils will be taught remotely for the first week of term. Special schools and childcare provision will, however, remain open.
“All schools must provide supervised learning for vulnerable children and key workers’ children.
“I must stress that these decisions are not made lightly as I know the negative impact on children’s learning and mental health and wellbeing of not being in school.
“However, particularly after unprecedented levels of positive Covid-19 tests since Christmas, and the pressure this applies to our health service, it is critical that we all must consider the public health and scientific advice as we look forward to brighter days ahead.” – PA


theirishtimes--2020-12-31--Enhancing key climate datasets and what it tells us about temperature targets

Research groups around the world provide updates of global surface temperatures that are critical to evaluating climate change trends .
They differ based on starting year , corrections made to changing measurement techniques , and how they deal with gaps between measurement locations .
Crucially , all show similar levels of warming over the past 150 years – between 1 degree and 1.2 degrees above pre-industrial levels ; every 0.1 degree matters .
A major update on a key global temperature dataset moves it from one of the slowest warming records to the fastest .
The Met Office and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have made a series of key improvements to their long-running global temperature data set known as HadCRUT in the first update in eight years .
The revision shows faster warming since the 1970s , and up to 0.2 degrees higher in recent years due in part to exceptionally rapid Arctic warming .
It is one of the world ’ s leading datasets , stretching back to 1850 .
It brings together measurements of near-surface air temperature made at weather stations around the world with measurements of the temperature of the top-most layer of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ include : adjustments to handle biases between different ways of measuring sea-surface temperature ; a significant increase in the number of weather stations used over land ; and applying statistical methods to extend coverage in areas that are still “ data-sparse ” , such as the Arctic .
This provides more accurate estimates of global , hemispheric and regional temperature changes .
HadCRUT5 indicates the average global temperature for 2010-2018 is 1.07 degrees warmer than average conditions in 1850-1900 – 0.16 degrees more than in the previous version of the data set .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ datasets during recent decades and shows slightly more warming than most of them do over the full period since 1850 .
Most significantly , it moves it from one of the slowest warming records to the fastest .
Each of the main global temperature datasets are compiled separately using different methods , but all are based on a finite amount of global temperature observations , explains Dr Colin Morice of the Met Office .
The approaches result in very similar estimates of overall warming “ and provides scientific confidence in the changes seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world has warmed considerably since the mid-century ” .
UEA ’ s Prof Tim Osborn underlines : “ Climate change has not suddenly got worse : instead , we have an improved estimate of how much warming has taken place.
” The main contributor to warming over the past 170 years is human influence on climate from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere .
Effects from human-induced climate change are not limited to surface temperature .
Warming of the climate system is seen across a range of climate indicators that build a holistic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from natural variability across the land , atmosphere , oceans and ice .
An updated version of the land-only global temperature dataset , CRUTEM5 , has also been issued .
“ Climate science predicts that the land areas of the world should be warming faster than the ocean areas and our temperature datasets confirm this , ” he says .
The dataset is a clear improvement upon the prior version addressing two key issues , according to leading Irish climate scientist Prof Peter Thorne of Maynooth University .
“ Firstly modern marine temperature @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ship-based to mostly buoy-based measurements are now accounted for.
” Secondly , the impacts of not taking direct measurements everywhere are much better handled by improved estimation of the impacts via interpolation over reasonable distances .
“ We know this is reasonable because at its very simplest if November was warm in Dublin , it was likely warm in Cork , Belfast , London and Paris too , ” he explained .
These improvements lead to an increased estimate of warming to date , but bring us considerably closer to 1.5 degrees ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ By our best estimate across a range of estimates produced by a range of groups of researchers now averaged over the past 5 years we probably stand somewhere close to 1.2 degrees relative to 1850-1900 and possibly a bit higher still relative to a true pre-industrial climate state.
” The revised datasets provide further evidence the Paris target will be breached sooner and directly impacts the viability of avoiding 1.5 degrees .
But on top of that , Prof Thorne notes : “ I think it ’ s fair to say the possible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Why it gets a bit vexed is that Paris was predicated upon an implicit assumption as to how much the globe had warmed to date at the time , which is not made explicit in the text .
So it has become an arduous issue not just for eminent climate scientists but the best environmental lawyers .
The Paris Agreement is frustratingly vague and imprecise as to what constitutes pre-industrial and what the estimated warming to date used to set the aspirational targets of 1.5 and 2 degrees had been , Prof Thorne @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been far more sensible to define a target relative to 2015 or say 2006-2015 because that is a well observed period and baselines the target unambiguously to a modern period reference , which would be much less uncertain and much less likely to subsequently change substantively .
”

Research groups around the world provide updates of global surface temperatures that are critical to evaluating climate change trends.
They differ based on starting year, corrections made to changing measurement techniques, and how they deal with gaps between measurement locations. Crucially, all show similar levels of warming over the past 150 years – between 1 degree and 1.2 degrees above pre-industrial levels; every 0.1 degree matters.
A major update on a key global temperature dataset moves it from one of the slowest warming records to the fastest. The Met Office and the University of East Anglia (UEA) have made a series of key improvements to their long-running global temperature data set known as HadCRUT in the first update in eight years.
The revision shows faster warming since the 1970s, and up to 0.2 degrees higher in recent years due in part to exceptionally rapid Arctic warming.
READ MORE
It is one of the world’s leading datasets, stretching back to 1850. It brings together measurements of near-surface air temperature made at weather stations around the world with measurements of the temperature of the top-most layer of the ocean; sea-surface temperature.
Updates include: adjustments to handle biases between different ways of measuring sea-surface temperature; a significant increase in the number of weather stations used over land; and applying statistical methods to extend coverage in areas that are still “data-sparse”, such as the Arctic. This provides more accurate estimates of global, hemispheric and regional temperature changes.
HadCRUT5 indicates the average global temperature for 2010-2018 is 1.07 degrees warmer than average conditions in 1850-1900 – 0.16 degrees more than in the previous version of the data set. It is now more consistent with other datasets during recent decades and shows slightly more warming than most of them do over the full period since 1850. Most significantly, it moves it from one of the slowest warming records to the fastest.
Each of the main global temperature datasets are compiled separately using different methods, but all are based on a finite amount of global temperature observations, explains Dr Colin Morice of the Met Office. The approaches result in very similar estimates of overall warming "and provides scientific confidence in the changes seen and also reinforces the fact that the world has warmed considerably since the mid-century".
Warming
UEA's Prof Tim Osborn underlines: "Climate change has not suddenly got worse: instead, we have an improved estimate of how much warming has taken place."
The main contributor to warming over the past 170 years is human influence on climate from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Effects from human-induced climate change are not limited to surface temperature. Warming of the climate system is seen across a range of climate indicators that build a holistic picture of climate disruption far beyond expectations from natural variability across the land, atmosphere, oceans and ice.
An updated version of the land-only global temperature dataset, CRUTEM5, has also been issued. “Climate science predicts that the land areas of the world should be warming faster than the ocean areas and our temperature datasets confirm this,” he says.
The dataset is a clear improvement upon the prior version addressing two key issues, according to leading Irish climate scientist Prof Peter Thorne of Maynooth University. "Firstly modern marine temperature biases arising from the move from mostly ship-based to mostly buoy-based measurements are now accounted for."
Secondly, the impacts of not taking direct measurements everywhere are much better handled by improved estimation of the impacts via interpolation over reasonable distances. "We know this is reasonable because at its very simplest if November was warm in Dublin, it was likely warm in Cork, Belfast, London and Paris too," he explained.
The Paris Agreement is frustratingly vague and imprecise as to what constitutes pre-industrial
These improvements lead to an increased estimate of warming to date, but bring us considerably closer to 1.5 degrees; a key Paris Agreement limit. “By our best estimate across a range of estimates produced by a range of groups of researchers now averaged over the past 5 years we probably stand somewhere close to 1.2 degrees relative to 1850-1900 and possibly a bit higher still relative to a true pre-industrial climate state.”
The revised datasets provide further evidence the Paris target will be breached sooner and directly impacts the viability of avoiding 1.5 degrees. But on top of that, Prof Thorne notes: “I think it’s fair to say the possible policy implications are vexed and tricky.”
Why it gets a bit vexed is that Paris was predicated upon an implicit assumption as to how much the globe had warmed to date at the time, which is not made explicit in the text. So it has become an arduous issue not just for eminent climate scientists but the best environmental lawyers.
The Paris Agreement is frustratingly vague and imprecise as to what constitutes pre-industrial and what the estimated warming to date used to set the aspirational targets of 1.5 and 2 degrees had been, Prof Thorne points out. “It would have been far more sensible to define a target relative to 2015 or say 2006-2015 because that is a well observed period and baselines the target unambiguously to a modern period reference, which would be much less uncertain and much less likely to subsequently change substantively.”


theirishtimes--2020-12-31--A year of triumph for modern science

A year of triumph for modern science

The year 2020 will probably be remembered as the year of the dreadful Covid-19 virus , but it should also be remembered as a year of significant triumph for modern science .
While some had predicted that a vaccine for the virus might not be found for years , several successful vaccines were in fact developed within 12 months of the first emergence of the virus .
In retrospect , the extraordinary speed of the development of a vaccine for Covid-19 can be attributed to a number of factors .
The first was pressure – the devastating effects of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and economic activity gave rise to an urgent drive worldwide for a cure , with few limits on financial outlay .
It seems there is much truth in the old adage that necessity is the mother of ( scientific ) invention .
A second factor was that researchers were working towards a clearly defined goal , using well-established research methods as a starting point .
It is notable that many of the successful research teams ( such as the Oxford/AstraZeneca group ) were working on vaccines for similar viruses before the emergence of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the research proceeded in a co-operative fashion , using already-existing collaborative research networks between academia and the pharmaceutical industry .
One of the most striking aspects of modern pharmaceutical science is the manner in which research is conducted via international collaborations between academia and industry .
One reason for this is the intense specialisation of science – in any given field , there are often only a handful of groups in each country at the forefront of research .
Another reason is that the funding of pioneering research in such fields requires @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Sadly , such a collaborative approach is rarely found in the realm of politics .
Indeed , national politics reared its head as soon as the first viable vaccine for Covid-19 emerged .
In the United States , citizens were treated to the spectacle of President Donald Trump declaring the discovery of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine a great success for American science and for his administration .
In the United Kingdom , several senior politicians erroneously attributed the swift approval of the vaccine by the UK regulatory authority to Brexit .
The discovery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a great British triumph in many UK media outlets , with little mention of the fact that the vaccine was manufactured in Germany and distributed from Belgium .
In Russia , the Sputnik-V vaccine was distributed to the population at large before clinical trials had concluded .
This approach not only presented an unnecessary risk to public health but ran the risk of undermining public confidence in the vaccine .
The confidence issue is one of particular concern to scientists and public-health officials , as widespread take-up of the vaccine is required for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread of Covid-19 .
For example , a recent UK study suggested that up to 20 per cent of the UK population could be hesitant about volunteering for the vaccine ; such concerns are hardly alleviated by any perceived haste in approving it .
More generally , the rise of the “ anti-vaxx ” movement is greatly perplexing to scientists and public health administrators .
There have been many studies of the phenomenon , with links drawn to the rise of misinformation in social media .
As so often , the issue appears @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the cause , the consequences of a widespread lack of trust in scientific authority can be very serious , from climate studies to immunology .
One strand of thought is that the recent rise of the anti-vaxx movement is at least partly due to the very success of vaccination programmes .
This is because it is easy to be insouciant about diseases such as polio and meningitis when the catastrophic effects of such viruses on human health are a distant memory .
If this line of reasoning is correct , we may find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is better than expected .
After all , it will be some time before any of us forget the devastating social and economic impact of this particular virus .
In that case , we may look forward to 2021 as the year that the public recovered its trust in science .
Dr Cormac O ’ Raifeartaigh lectures in physics at Waterford Institute of Technology and blogs at antimatter.ie

“The consequences of a widespread lack of trust in scientific authority can be very serious, from climate studies to immunology.” Photograph: John Cairns/University of Oxford/AFP via Getty Images
The year 2020 will probably be remembered as the year of the dreadful Covid-19 virus, but it should also be remembered as a year of significant triumph for modern science. While some had predicted that a vaccine for the virus might not be found for years, several successful vaccines were in fact developed within 12 months of the first emergence of the virus.
In retrospect, the extraordinary speed of the development of a vaccine for Covid-19 can be attributed to a number of factors. The first was pressure – the devastating effects of the virus on human health and on social and economic activity gave rise to an urgent drive worldwide for a cure, with few limits on financial outlay. It seems there is much truth in the old adage that necessity is the mother of (scientific) invention.
A second factor was that researchers were working towards a clearly defined goal, using well-established research methods as a starting point. It is notable that many of the successful research teams (such as the Oxford/AstraZeneca group) were working on vaccines for similar viruses before the emergence of the pandemic.
A third factor was that the research proceeded in a co-operative fashion, using already-existing collaborative research networks between academia and the pharmaceutical industry. One of the most striking aspects of modern pharmaceutical science is the manner in which research is conducted via international collaborations between academia and industry.
READ MORE
One reason for this is the intense specialisation of science – in any given field, there are often only a handful of groups in each country at the forefront of research. Another reason is that the funding of pioneering research in such fields requires the deep pockets of the pharmaceutical industry.
Sadly, such a collaborative approach is rarely found in the realm of politics. Indeed, national politics reared its head as soon as the first viable vaccine for Covid-19 emerged. In the United States, citizens were treated to the spectacle of President Donald Trump declaring the discovery of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine a great success for American science and for his administration.
In the United Kingdom, several senior politicians erroneously attributed the swift approval of the vaccine by the UK regulatory authority to Brexit. The discovery of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was trumpeted as a great British triumph in many UK media outlets, with little mention of the fact that the vaccine was manufactured in Germany and distributed from Belgium.
In Russia, the Sputnik-V vaccine was distributed to the population at large before clinical trials had concluded. This approach not only presented an unnecessary risk to public health but ran the risk of undermining public confidence in the vaccine.
Widespread take-up
The confidence issue is one of particular concern to scientists and public-health officials, as widespread take-up of the vaccine is required for it to be effective in halting the spread of Covid-19. For example, a recent UK study suggested that up to 20 per cent of the UK population could be hesitant about volunteering for the vaccine; such concerns are hardly alleviated by any perceived haste in approving it.
More generally, the rise of the “anti-vaxx” movement is greatly perplexing to scientists and public health administrators. There have been many studies of the phenomenon, with links drawn to the rise of misinformation in social media. As so often, the issue appears to be one of trust. Whatever the cause, the consequences of a widespread lack of trust in scientific authority can be very serious, from climate studies to immunology.
One strand of thought is that the recent rise of the anti-vaxx movement is at least partly due to the very success of vaccination programmes. This is because it is easy to be insouciant about diseases such as polio and meningitis when the catastrophic effects of such viruses on human health are a distant memory.
If this line of reasoning is correct, we may find that take-up of the Covid-19 vaccination programme is better than expected. After all, it will be some time before any of us forget the devastating social and economic impact of this particular virus. In that case, we may look forward to 2021 as the year that the public recovered its trust in science.
Dr Cormac O'Raifeartaigh lectures in physics at Waterford Institute of Technology and blogs at antimatter.ie


theirishtimes--2020-12-31--Ireland in Level 5: Third nationwide lockdown to last until at least the end of January

The country will on Thursday enter a third nationwide lockdown to last until at least the end of January following the rapid spread of coronavirus .
Schools will remain closed until January 11th in order to give families 10 days to minimise their social contacts .
All non-essential retail will close from Thursday night while social gatherings or visitors in the home are no longer permitted .
The public is being told to stay at home and not travel beyond a five-kilometre limit .
Indoor and outdoor sports such as in gyms , as well as tennis and golf , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Government Buildings following a special Cabinet meeting , Taoiseach Micheál Martin said the virus is “ spreading at a rate that has surpassed the most pessimistic models available to us ” .
It is understood that Tánaiste Leo Varadkar warned the Cabinet it is unlikely many of the restrictions will be lifted after the mooted end date of January 31st , while Ministers were also warned of the significant impact the move will have on the economy .
Mr Varadkar said on Wednesday night the decision to enter a stricter lockdown represented @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and employers alike ” .
The pandemic unemployment payment will remain in place at current rates until the end of March at least , under a memo to be brought to Cabinet next week by the Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys .
Some 40,000 additional workers will be laid off in the coming weeks in light of the tightened restrictions .
Businesses forced to close from Thursday will be given a double payment for two weeks under the Covid Restrictions Support Scheme ( CRSS ) .
The Taoiseach warned , however , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scarring effect ” on the economy .
“ The economic cost is significant .
The concern we would have is around the impact on certain sectors and companies in terms of a long-term scarring effect , so we will continue to evaluate that.
” While Mr Martin said schools will reopen on January 11th , a Government statement said there would be a “ further review on the precise situation in advance of that date ” .
“ Public health has been consistent in saying schools are safe places for children .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days [ off ] in some schools or two extra days in others .
By extending the break you are giving families an opportunity to put in place measures to ensure contacts are minimised and children can return safely to school.
” The Taoiseach said it is “ fair to say quite a number of these restrictions will continue beyond the end of this month ” .
Green Party leader Eamon Ryan said the ban on travel from Britain will be extended until January 6th while a separate ban on travel from South @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same date after a similar new strain of Covid-19 was found there .
For the second day in a row , a new record for additional cases of the virus was set , with 1,718 positive tests reported .
Another 13 Covid-related deaths were also confirmed .
Public health officials responded to the worsening figures by telling people to “ stay home ” so transmission of the virus can be limited .
They also warned of up to 3,000 new cases a day and 1,200 patients in hospital by the end of January @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the virus .
Chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan said Ireland was once again in a mitigation phase , meaning resources should be focused on those who are sickest .
The Health Service Executive ( HSE ) warned the testing and contract tracing system is approaching maximum capacity .
Continued exponential growth in cases will challenge the system and reduce the marginal benefit it provides , officials said .
The benefit of individuals taking action to prevent infection “ far outweighs ” what testing and tracing can currently achieve , HSE chief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Most indicators of the disease have sharply deteriorated in the past week , with a 41 per cent increase in testing and a 129 per cent rise in contact-tracing calls .
The number of Covid-19 patients in hospital increased to 455 on Wednesday , up from 411 the previous day .
ICU numbers rose slightly to 37 , up three .
The reproduction number , a measure of the extent to which the virus is transmitting , is currently estimated at 1.6-1.8 , and case numbers are doubling every seven to 10 days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are available , including 55 critical care beds .

Taoiseach Micheál Martin has announced the return of Level 5 Covid-19 restrictions for "at least one month", warning that measures to combat the spread of coronavirus are likely to continue after January 31st. Video: AFP
The country will on Thursday enter a third nationwide lockdown to last until at least the end of January following the rapid spread of coronavirus.
Schools will remain closed until January 11th in order to give families 10 days to minimise their social contacts.
All non-essential retail will close from Thursday night while social gatherings or visitors in the home are no longer permitted.
Hospital Report
The public is being told to stay at home and not travel beyond a five-kilometre limit. Indoor and outdoor sports such as in gyms, as well as tennis and golf, will also not be permitted.
READ MORE
Speaking at Government Buildings following a special Cabinet meeting, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said the virus is “spreading at a rate that has surpassed the most pessimistic models available to us”.
It is understood that Tánaiste Leo Varadkar warned the Cabinet it is unlikely many of the restrictions will be lifted after the mooted end date of January 31st, while Ministers were also warned of the significant impact the move will have on the economy.
Mr Varadkar said on Wednesday night the decision to enter a stricter lockdown represented a “very hard blow for workers and employers alike”.
The pandemic unemployment payment will remain in place at current rates until the end of March at least, under a memo to be brought to Cabinet next week by the Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys. Some 40,000 additional workers will be laid off in the coming weeks in light of the tightened restrictions. Businesses forced to close from Thursday will be given a double payment for two weeks under the Covid Restrictions Support Scheme (CRSS).
‘Scarring effect’
The Taoiseach warned, however, that there will be a long-term “scarring effect” on the economy.
“The economic cost is significant. The concern we would have is around the impact on certain sectors and companies in terms of a long-term scarring effect, so we will continue to evaluate that.”
While Mr Martin said schools will reopen on January 11th, a Government statement said there would be a "further review on the precise situation in advance of that date".
“Public health has been consistent in saying schools are safe places for children. In some cases this will be three extra days [off] in some schools or two extra days in others. By extending the break you are giving families an opportunity to put in place measures to ensure contacts are minimised and children can return safely to school.”
The Taoiseach said it is “fair to say quite a number of these restrictions will continue beyond the end of this month”.
Green Party leader Eamon Ryan said the ban on travel from Britain will be extended until January 6th while a separate ban on travel from South Africa has also been announced until the same date after a similar new strain of Covid-19 was found there.
For the second day in a row, a new record for additional cases of the virus was set, with 1,718 positive tests reported. Another 13 Covid-related deaths were also confirmed.
Public health officials responded to the worsening figures by telling people to “stay home” so transmission of the virus can be limited.
Partial reduction
They also warned of up to 3,000 new cases a day and 1,200 patients in hospital by the end of January, even with partial reduction in transmission of the virus.
Chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan said Ireland was once again in a mitigation phase, meaning resources should be focused on those who are sickest.
The Health Service Executive (HSE) warned the testing and contract tracing system is approaching maximum capacity.
Continued exponential growth in cases will challenge the system and reduce the marginal benefit it provides, officials said.
The benefit of individuals taking action to prevent infection "far outweighs" what testing and tracing can currently achieve, HSE chief executive Paul Reid told a briefing.
Most indicators of the disease have sharply deteriorated in the past week, with a 41 per cent increase in testing and a 129 per cent rise in contact-tracing calls.
The number of Covid-19 patients in hospital increased to 455 on Wednesday, up from 411 the previous day. ICU numbers rose slightly to 37, up three.
The reproduction number, a measure of the extent to which the virus is transmitting, is currently estimated at 1.6-1.8, and case numbers are doubling every seven to 10 days.
The HSE says 650 hospital beds are available, including 55 critical care beds.


theirishtimes--2020-12-31--Video of fatal Garda shooting of man in front garden of Dublin house to be examined

Garda Ombudsman investigators are to examine a video capturing the fatal Garda shooting of a man in his front garden in west Dublin on Wednesday .
George Nkencho ( 27 ) was shot at least three times by members of the Blanchardstown Armed Support Unit ( ASU ) while allegedly brandishing a knife and threatening gardaí .
A 13-second mobile phone video shot by a passerby and confirmed by The Irish Times shows a man in a blue jumper surrounded by ASU members outside Mr Nkencho ’ s family house on Manorfields Drive in Clonee .
A gunshot can be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen swinging his arm towards the officers .
It is not clear from the footage if there is something in his hand .
Another four shots are then heard .
The man appears to stumble before falling to the ground on the fifth shot .
The footage was taken from the other side of a green area in front of the house .
Sources say the shots all came from an official Garda weapon .
At least three hit Mr Nkencho .
ASU members administered first aid before Dublin Fire Brigade paramedics arrived @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by ambulance to James Connolly Memorial Hospital where he was pronounced dead a short time later .
The Garda said in a statement it implemented “ a graduated policing response ” after being threatened with a knife .
It is understood this involved the use of pepper spray followed by the firing of two Taser guns .
Gardaí also verbally ordered the deceased to drop the knife several times before using force , one source said .
The incident began just after midday when , according to eyewitnesses , Mr Nkencho entered the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a manager in the face , injuring the victim ’ s nose .
Mr Nkencho then produced a large knife from his pocket and brandished it towards staff .
He then walked into the post office section of the supermarket as unarmed gardaí began to arrive .
The supermarket manager was taken to hospital for treatment .
At least 12 unarmed gardaí followed Mr Nkencho out of the shop and through several housing estates while instructing him to drop the knife .
By the time Mr Nkencho arrived in his front garden at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Blanchardstown Garda station and took over the operation .
This is when the fatal shots were fired .
The deceased and his family are originally from Nigeria but had been living in the area for many years .
Some family members were in the house at the time .
They have since been relocated to a friend ’ s house .
Gardaí have obtained the video of the shooting which will be passed on to investigators from the Garda Ombudsman Commission ( Gsoc ) .

A group of demonstrators have gathered at Blanchardstown Garda station to protest following the fatal shooting of George Nkencho (27) in Clonee, Dublin. Video: Collins
Garda Ombudsman investigators are to examine a video capturing the fatal Garda shooting of a man in his front garden in west Dublin on Wednesday.
George Nkencho (27) was shot at least three times by members of the Blanchardstown Armed Support Unit (ASU) while allegedly brandishing a knife and threatening gardaí.
A 13-second mobile phone video shot by a passerby and confirmed by The Irish Times shows a man in a blue jumper surrounded by ASU members outside Mr Nkencho's family house on Manorfields Drive in Clonee.
A gunshot can be heard before the man in blue is seen swinging his arm towards the officers. It is not clear from the footage if there is something in his hand.
READ MORE
Another four shots are then heard. The man appears to stumble before falling to the ground on the fifth shot.
The footage was taken from the other side of a green area in front of the house.
Sources say the shots all came from an official Garda weapon. At least three hit Mr Nkencho. ASU members administered first aid before Dublin Fire Brigade paramedics arrived and began CPR. He was taken by ambulance to James Connolly Memorial Hospital where he was pronounced dead a short time later.
George Nkencho was fatally shot by gardaí in the Manorfields area of Clonee, west Dublin, on Wednesday.
A protest was held outside Blanchardstown Garda station on Thursday following the man’s death. Several hundred protesters holding placards and chanting "justice for George” gathered for approximately two hours.
The Garda said in a statement it implemented “a graduated policing response” after being threatened with a knife. It is understood this involved the use of pepper spray followed by the firing of two Taser guns.
Gardaí also verbally ordered the deceased to drop the knife several times before using force, one source said.
The incident began just after midday when, according to eyewitnesses, Mr Nkencho entered the Eurospar supermarket in Hartstown were he punched a manager in the face, injuring the victim's nose. Mr Nkencho then produced a large knife from his pocket and brandished it towards staff.
Officers at the scene in Clonee, west Dublin, following the fatal Garda shooting. Photograph: Niall Carson/PA Wire
Unarmed gardaí
He then walked into the post office section of the supermarket as unarmed gardaí began to arrive. The supermarket manager was taken to hospital for treatment.
At least 12 unarmed gardaí followed Mr Nkencho out of the shop and through several housing estates while instructing him to drop the knife.
By the time Mr Nkencho arrived in his front garden at 12.30pm, the ASU had arrived from Blanchardstown Garda station and took over the operation. This is when the fatal shots were fired.
The deceased and his family are originally from Nigeria but had been living in the area for many years. Some family members were in the house at the time. They have since been relocated to a friend's house.
Gardaí have obtained the video of the shooting which will be passed on to investigators from the Garda Ombudsman Commission (Gsoc).


theirishtimes--2020-12-31--Nursing home residents getting virus in hospitals

Nursing home residents are picking up the coronavirus while in hospitals and then testing positive after being transferred back into care homes , the State healthcare regulator recently told the Health Service Executive ( HSE ) .
The transfer of patients from acute hospitals into nursing homes was believed to be one reason behind the spread of the virus into the care facilities during the start of the pandemic in March .
A senior Health Information and Quality Authority ( Hiqa ) official recently warned the HSE that acute hospitals were again responsible for confirmed cases in nursing homes .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of social services , escalated concerns about the issue to the HSE in a November 19th email .
“ There have been a number of incidents where residents who tested negative prior to return from hospital subsequently test positive after being identified as a close contact of a Covid-detected patient in the acute hospital , ” he said .
Mr Colfer said stricter procedures were needed around residents returning from hospitals to nursing homes .
While patients were tested for Covid-19 before being admitted and transferred back from hospital , nursing homes were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discharge , he said .
Mr Colfer said several nursing homes were also reporting they were losing staff as a result of HSE recruitment , and that agency staff were not included in recurring testing of nursing home residents and staff .
“ Notably staff are leaving the nursing home to join contact-tracing teams .
These jobs are offered and staff are advised that they have to take up the post within a week , significantly impacting on the nursing homes , ” he said .
“ We have been advised that agency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nursing home are not included in serial testing of staff , ” he added .
The correspondence between Hiqa and the HSE was released to The Irish Times following a request under the Freedom of Information Act .
In a statement , the HSE said it had engaged with private nursing homes since early 2020 to assist them during the pandemic .
“ This has been both nationally , through their representative body , Nursing Homes Ireland , and locally through individual providers and the community healthcare organisation network.
” Supports provided to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PPE ) and other supplies , infection control advice , help sourcing extra staff , and in some cases direct reassignment of HSE staff into facilities , it said .
“ The HSE does not want to deplete any health services employees in the private or public sector and is not targeting staff from nursing homes .
The HSE advertises posts in a transparent and open way and candidates who consider they meet the criteria are eligible to apply , ” it said .
“ The vast majority of HSE recruitment is through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and also through local and national recruitment by the HSE , ” it added .
The roll-out of the Covid-19 vaccine to the more than 70,000 residents and staff in nursing homes is to begin on a small scale next week , before ramping up from January 11th .
It is hoped all 580 nursing homes will be covered by two doses of the vaccine by February 28th .
However , the HSE has warned possible outbreaks in some nursing homes may delay this timeline .

The roll-out of the Covid-19 vaccine to the more than 70,000 residents and staff in nursing homes is to begin on a small scale next week, before ramping up from January 11th. Photograph: iStock
Nursing home residents are picking up the coronavirus while in hospitals and then testing positive after being transferred back into care homes, the State healthcare regulator recently told the Health Service Executive (HSE).
The transfer of patients from acute hospitals into nursing homes was believed to be one reason behind the spread of the virus into the care facilities during the start of the pandemic in March.
A senior Health Information and Quality Authority (Hiqa) official recently warned the HSE that acute hospitals were again responsible for confirmed cases in nursing homes.
Hospital Report
Finbarr Colfer, Hiqa deputy chief inspector of social services, escalated concerns about the issue to the HSE in a November 19th email.
READ MORE
“There have been a number of incidents where residents who tested negative prior to return from hospital subsequently test positive after being identified as a close contact of a Covid-detected patient in the acute hospital,” he said.
Mr Colfer said stricter procedures were needed around residents returning from hospitals to nursing homes.
While patients were tested for Covid-19 before being admitted and transferred back from hospital, nursing homes were seeking testing seven and 10 days post discharge, he said.
Mr Colfer said several nursing homes were also reporting they were losing staff as a result of HSE recruitment, and that agency staff were not included in recurring testing of nursing home residents and staff.
“Notably staff are leaving the nursing home to join contact-tracing teams. These jobs are offered and staff are advised that they have to take up the post within a week, significantly impacting on the nursing homes,” he said.
“We have been advised that agency staff working lines of duty in a nursing home are not included in serial testing of staff,” he added.
The correspondence between Hiqa and the HSE was released to The Irish Times following a request under the Freedom of Information Act.
In a statement, the HSE said it had engaged with private nursing homes since early 2020 to assist them during the pandemic.
“This has been both nationally, through their representative body, Nursing Homes Ireland, and locally through individual providers and the community healthcare organisation network.”
Supports
Supports provided to nursing homes included personal protective equipment (PPE) and other supplies, infection control advice, help sourcing extra staff, and in some cases direct reassignment of HSE staff into facilities, it said.
“The HSE does not want to deplete any health services employees in the private or public sector and is not targeting staff from nursing homes. The HSE advertises posts in a transparent and open way and candidates who consider they meet the criteria are eligible to apply,” it said.
“The vast majority of HSE recruitment is through local campaigns in hospitals and the community, and also through local and national recruitment by the HSE,” it added.
The roll-out of the Covid-19 vaccine to the more than 70,000 residents and staff in nursing homes is to begin on a small scale next week, before ramping up from January 11th.
It is hoped all 580 nursing homes will be covered by two doses of the vaccine by February 28th. However, the HSE has warned possible outbreaks in some nursing homes may delay this timeline.


theirishtimes--2020-12-31--Man (30s) dies following single-vehicle road traffic incident in Co Wexford

A man has died following a single-vehicle road traffic incident in Co Wexford on New Year ’ s Eve .
@ @ @ @ @ 9.25am on December 31st at Ballyeden roughly 9km from Enniscorthy , Co Wexford .
The @ @ @ @ @ 30s , was the sole occupant of the vehicle and was pronounced dead at the @ @ @ @ @ closed for a time to allow a forensic examination to take place but has since @ @ @ @ @ appealing for any witnesses to this collision to come forward and for any road users @ @ @ @ @ – including dash-cam – who were travelling in the area at the time to make @ @ @ @ @ .
Anyone with information is asked to contact Enniscorthy Garda Station on 053-9242580 , the @ @ @ @ @ 666 111 , or any Garda station .

The man, aged in his 30s, was the sole occupant of the vehicle and was pronounced dead at the scene. Photograph: Bryan O’Brien/The Irish Times
A man has died following a single-vehicle road traffic incident in Co Wexford on New Year’s Eve.
The incident occurred at approximately 9.25am on December 31st at Ballyeden roughly 9km from Enniscorthy, Co Wexford.
The man, aged in his 30s, was the sole occupant of the vehicle and was pronounced dead at the scene.
The road was closed for a time to allow a forensic examination to take place but has since fully reopened.
READ MORE
Gardaí are appealing for any witnesses to this collision to come forward and for any road users who may have camera footage – including dash-cam – who were travelling in the area at the time to make this footage available to Gardaí.
Anyone with information is asked to contact Enniscorthy Garda Station on 053-9242580, the Garda confidential line on 1800 666 111, or any Garda station.


theirishtimes--2020-12-31--Covid cases under-reported by estimated 4,000 in recent days, Nphet says

The number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in recent days is under-reported by an estimated 4,000 , due to delays in recording positive test results on the system over the Christmas period , a senior health official has said .
Prof Philip Nolan , chair of the Nphet Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group , said the epidemiological situation has deteriorated rapidly over the past week , and that we are “ clearly in the midst of the third wave ” .
He said the reproductive number is at least 1.6 to 1.8 , and the daily growth rate is estimated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ giving a doubling time of seven to 10 days or less .
There were 1,620 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the Republic reported on Thursday .
Q & A : Everything you need to know about the third lockdown However , Prof Nolan said the true number of positive cases is higher than has been reported , due to a lag between a test coming back positive and being reported in the system .
He said this situation arose because “ very few people ” presented for tests on Christmas Eve , Christmas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
However , immediately after Christmas , there were very large numbers testing , creating an “ artificial surge ” in tests .
“ We know of additional positive tests that have yet to be reported on the system over the last few days .
On the 28th of December there were 2,000 positive tests and the 29th of December there was almost 3,000 .
Yesterday , the 30th December , there were 4,363 positive tests recorded , ” he told the Nphet briefing on Thursday evening .
“ Those Covid positive tests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tests have to be validated .
.
.
but many of them will turn into cases .
We estimate that there is somewhere in the region of 4,000 positive cases in the last two to three days which have yet to be formally confirmed .
They will be confirmed in the coming days.
” Prof Nolan said that this lag “ in no way interferes ” with identifying cases , but acknowledged the epidemiological situation is “ somewhat worse ” than has been reported .
“ This system wasn ’ t designed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per day .
We expect to see very high case counts and very high five-day moving averages over the coming week to 10 days , ” he added .
Meanwhile , Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan has announced that close contacts of a confirmed case will no longer be tested due to increased demand on the testing and tracing service .
Close contacts will still be identified and requested to restrict their movements for 14 days .
“ It ’ s simply about the scale and the volume .
We are at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ simply not possible for us to identify every single contact and test every single contact the way we were doing at lower levels of transmission , ” he said .
“ Just take the numbers that we have , if were identifying three , four , thousand cases through positive testing a day and each one of those is generating on average now 6.3 contacts .
That ’ s well over 20,000 tests a day being generated as a result of testing contacts.
” Dr Holohan acknowledged that this changes makes the accuracy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ challenge ” .
However , he said they think it is important to focus the testing capacity on individuals who are symptomatic , rather than contacts .
“ We are effectively asking the entire population to isolate themselves .
”

Prof Philip Nolan, cchair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group: ‘On the 28th of December there were 2,000 positive tests and the 29th of December there was almost 3,000.’ Photograph: Colin Keegan/Collins Dublin
The number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in recent days is under-reported by an estimated 4,000, due to delays in recording positive test results on the system over the Christmas period, a senior health official has said.
Prof Philip Nolan, chair of the Nphet Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said the epidemiological situation has deteriorated rapidly over the past week, and that we are "clearly in the midst of the third wave".
He said the reproductive number is at least 1.6 to 1.8, and the daily growth rate is estimated at 7 to 10 per cent, giving a doubling time of seven to 10 days or less.
Hospital Report
There were 1,620 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the Republic reported on Thursday.
READ MORE
[ Q&A: Everything you need to know about the third lockdown ]
However, Prof Nolan said the true number of positive cases is higher than has been reported, due to a lag between a test coming back positive and being reported in the system.
He said this situation arose because “very few people” presented for tests on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and St Stephen’s Day. However, immediately after Christmas, there were very large numbers testing, creating an “artificial surge” in tests.
“We know of additional positive tests that have yet to be reported on the system over the last few days. On the 28th of December there were 2,000 positive tests and the 29th of December there was almost 3,000. Yesterday, the 30th December, there were 4,363 positive tests recorded,” he told the Nphet briefing on Thursday evening.
“Those Covid positive tests are not necessarily cases. Those positive tests have to be validated . . . but many of them will turn into cases. We estimate that there is somewhere in the region of 4,000 positive cases in the last two to three days which have yet to be formally confirmed. They will be confirmed in the coming days.”
Prof Nolan said that this lag “in no way interferes” with identifying cases, but acknowledged the epidemiological situation is “somewhat worse” than has been reported.
“This system wasn’t designed to report 2,000, 3,000 or 4,000 tests per day. We expect to see very high case counts and very high five-day moving averages over the coming week to 10 days,” he added.
Contacts
Meanwhile, Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan has announced that close contacts of a confirmed case will no longer be tested due to increased demand on the testing and tracing service.
Close contacts will still be identified and requested to restrict their movements for 14 days.
“It’s simply about the scale and the volume. We are at a point now where it’s simply not possible for us to identify every single contact and test every single contact the way we were doing at lower levels of transmission,” he said.
“Just take the numbers that we have, if were identifying three, four, thousand cases through positive testing a day and each one of those is generating on average now 6.3 contacts. That’s well over 20,000 tests a day being generated as a result of testing contacts.”
Dr Holohan acknowledged that this changes makes the accuracy of the daily confirmed figures “a challenge”.
However, he said they think it is important to focus the testing capacity on individuals who are symptomatic, rather than contacts.
“We are effectively asking the entire population to isolate themselves.”


theirishtimes--2020-12-31--Current restrictions may ‘not be sufficient’ to curb spread of Covid-19, warns Nphet

The National Public Health Emergency Team ( Nphet ) has expressed concern the current Covid-19 restrictions announced on Wednesday will not be enough to curtail the spread of the virus .
In a letter written to Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly on December 30th , chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan wrote : “ Nphet reiterates its view that the current set of measures will not be sufficient to interrupt transmission patterns to the extent necessary.
” Nphet is recommending that Level 5 restrictions be imposed for a period of six weeks .
“ Nphet advises that this will require @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of and adherence to the full suite of Level 5 measures as set out in the Government ’ s Plan for Living with COVID-19 .
The Nphet recommends that these measures are put in place as a matter of urgency and remain in place for a period of six weeks.
” “ The level of disease has now exceeded containment and , as such , we are now in a mitigation phase.
” Q & A : Everything you need to know about the third lockdown This warning came on the same day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ briefing that close contacts of confirmed Covid-19 cases will no longer be tested .
Also reported on Thursday , the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in recent days is under-reported by an estimated 4,000 , due to delays in recording positive test results on the system over the Christmas period , a senior health official said .
Prof Philip Nolan , chair of the Nphet Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group , said the epidemiological situation has deteriorated rapidly over the past week , and that we are “ clearly in the midst @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further 1,620 cases of coronavirus and 12 more deaths were reported by Nphet on Thursday .
There have now been 91,772 cases of coronavirus reported in the Republic since the start of the pandemic last March , and 2,237 deaths .
The letter goes on to say that Nphet “ is of the view that the virus is circulating in the community at such a level that it requires strict ‘ stay at home ’ measures ( with exemptions provided only for those activities and services that are essential in nature ) to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and further transmission of the disease.
” Nphet believes due to “ some element of under-reporting as a result of the festive period , and coupled with the potential additional risks posed by the UK and South African variants ” that there “ could be a further acceleration in incidence and severity indicators in the coming days ” .
Nphet has subsequently warned “ that the additional Level 5 measures recommended may not be sufficient to bring the disease under control and that additional measures may be required if there is a continued @ @ @ @ @ @ @ letter also states that the best estimate of the reproduction number ( R ) is currently 1.6-1.8 .
This number is now estimated to be higher than at any point since last March .
One of the latest modelling projections predicts that if the R number is reduced to 1.4 from December 31st , at least 2,000 cases per day on average will be seen by January 9th and 3,000 cases per day by January 23rd .
Nphet stressed that the situation “ remains extremely fragile , with disease incidence and hospitalisations accelerating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had projected.
” In relation to the reopening of schools , Dr Holohan said in the letter : “ The Nphet today gave specific consideration to the reopening of schools next week .
The Nphet was of the view that schools should reopen as planned .
However , the Nphet did note that the high and rising levels of community transmission will become a risk to the ongoing provision of education at primary and secondary level unless these levels of transmission can be addressed .
Nphet will continue to review this issue over @ @ @ @ @

Chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan: ‘Nphet reiterates its view that the current set of measures will not be sufficient to interrupt transmission patterns to the extent necessary.’
The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has expressed concern the current Covid-19 restrictions announced on Wednesday will not be enough to curtail the spread of the virus.
In a letter written to Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly on New Year's Eve, chief medical officer Dr Holohan wrote: "Nphet reiterates its view that the current set of measures will not be sufficient to interrupt transmission patterns to the extent necessary."
Nphet is recommending that Level 5 restrictions be imposed for a period of six weeks. “Nphet advises that this will require, at a minimum, the implementation of and adherence to the full suite of Level 5 measures as set out in the Government’s Plan for Living with COVID-19. The Nphet recommends that these measures are put in place as a matter of urgency and remain in place for a period of six weeks.”
“The level of disease has now exceeded containment and, as such, we are now in a mitigation phase.”
READ MORE
[ Q&A: Everything you need to know about the third lockdown ]
This warning came on the same day that Dr Tony Holohan told a media briefing that close contacts of confirmed Covid-19 cases will no longer be tested.
Also reported on Thursday, the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in recent days is under-reported by an estimated 4,000, due to delays in recording positive test results on the system over the Christmas period, a senior health official said.
Prof Philip Nolan, chair of the Nphet Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said the epidemiological situation has deteriorated rapidly over the past week, and that we are “clearly in the midst of the third wave”.
A further 1,620 cases of coronavirus and 12 more deaths were reported by Nphet on Thursday. There have now been 91,772 cases of coronavirus reported in the Republic since the start of the pandemic last March, and 2,237 deaths.
‘Stay at home’ measures
The letter goes on to say that Nphet “is of the view that the virus is circulating in the community at such a level that it requires strict ‘stay at home’ measures (with exemptions provided only for those activities and services that are essential in nature) to significantly and comprehensively reduce opportunities for contact and further transmission of the disease.”
Nphet believes due to “some element of under-reporting as a result of the festive period, and coupled with the potential additional risks posed by the UK and South African variants” that there “could be a further acceleration in incidence and severity indicators in the coming days”.
Nphet has subsequently warned “that the additional Level 5 measures recommended may not be sufficient to bring the disease under control and that additional measures may be required if there is a continued deterioration over the coming period.”
‘Extremely fragile’ situation
The letter also states that the best estimate of the reproduction number (R) is currently 1.6-1.8. This number is now estimated to be higher than at any point since last March. One of the latest modelling projections predicts that if the R number is reduced to 1.4 from December 31st, at least 2,000 cases per day on average will be seen by January 9th and 3,000 cases per day by January 23rd.
Nphet stressed that the situation “remains extremely fragile, with disease incidence and hospitalisations accelerating faster than the most pessimistic modelling scenarios had projected.”
In relation to the reopening of schools, Dr Holohan said in the letter: “The Nphet today gave specific consideration to the reopening of schools next week. The Nphet was of the view that schools should reopen as planned. However, the Nphet did note that the high and rising levels of community transmission will become a risk to the ongoing provision of education at primary and secondary level unless these levels of transmission can be addressed. Nphet will continue to review this issue over the coming weeks.”