theirishtimes--2020-10-09--Garda Covid-19 operation sees traffic volumes fall by up to 29 per cent

The volume of traffic in the Republic ’ s roads notably decreased just days into the Garda ’ s Operation Fanacht .
The operation has seen thousands of checkpoints and long delays arising in some places .
However , parts of Donegal have bucked the national trend with traffic flow in some parts of the county having increased two days into the operation on Thursday .
Donegal is one of the worst-hit areas in the country , and the Derry-Strabane region , which it borders , is a UK Covid-19 black spot .
An analysis of Transport Infrastructure Ireland data @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the roads on Thursday with the same day last week shows a modest drop in traffic from 6am to 9am in most parts of the Republic .
However , that decline in traffic volume was more pronounced late in the day with reductions of almost one-third recorded in some places .
It appears motorists continued to make trips in morning-rush hour , but journeys that normally took place later in the day were down .
The Garda has begun a new phase of Operation Fanacht to coincide with all counties in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Government ’ s Living with Covid-19 plan from midnight on Tuesday .
That has involved the erection of 132 static checkpoints on motorways and other arterial routes and thousands of other small and mobile checkpoints being moved around on smaller roads .
Garda Commissioner Drew Harris warned before the operation began that it would lead to traffic delays as traffic on motorways and other major roads was funneled into one lane .
On Wednesday and Thursday queues of up to 8km were report at some if the static checkpoints .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Level 3 meant people should only leave their county for essential reasons , adding the delays experience by those persisting with non-essential journeys would provide the “ shock ” required for them to desist .
Transport Infrastructure Ireland said it would take a number of days before the impact of Operation Fanacht on traffic volume became clear .
However , an analysis of data available on Thursday in the three-hour period from 6am to 9am showed a decline in traffic volume in 15 of the 18 locations reviewed by The Irish Times .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ by up to 2 per cent – in Donegal .
These included the N13 between Bridgend and Burnfoot , with only a very marginal increase noted , as well as the N14 between Lifford and Letterkenny and on the N15 Lifford to Castlefinn road , with an increase of 2 per cent on both of those roads .
Elsewhere , the decrease in traffic volume between 6am and 9am on Thursday was between 2 per cent and 10 per cent ; the biggest decrease was on the M4 between junction 6 Celbridge and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between junction 1 M50 and junction1a Newlands Cross there was a 7 per cent decline in traffic volume .
In Co Clare on the M18 between junction15 Crusheen and junction16 Gort the fall in traffic volume on Thursday morning was 9 per cent .
On the N2 , between the Border with Northern Ireland and Mullinderg , Co Monaghan , traffic volume was down by 5 per cent on Thursday morning .
There were much more modest decreases , of only a fraction of 1 per cent , on the N22 between Killarney @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ballyvourney , Co Cork , as well as on the N25 between New Ross , Co Wexford , and Waterford City .
On Thursday in the later period of the day between 9am and noon the decline in traffic volumes were more significant ; down by between 5 per cent 29 per cent .
Garda sources said because Donegal and Dublin were already in Level 3 between the other 24 counties were moved to that level from midnight in Tuesday , some of the decline in traffic volume had already occurred before the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
However , the same sources said if it became clear over time traffic had fallen further in Dublin since Wednesday morning but not in Donegal , as suggested by the analysis of early trends , that would be cause for concern .
On Thursday between 9am and 12 noon traffic volume was down by 20 per cent on the M4 between junction 6 Celbridge and junction 7 Maynooth .
It was down by 11 per cent on the M1 Castlebellingham , Co Louth .
The biggest decrease , of just over 29 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between Killarney and Macroom , Ballyvourney , Co Cork .
On the N7 at Citywest , Co Dublin , traffic volume was down by 15 per cent and had fallen by 14 per cent on the N11 near Coynes Cross , Timore , Co Wicklow .
On the N4 and the Longford bypass traffic was down by 13 per cent between 9am and 12noon on Thursday when compared with the same period last week and was down by 14 per cent on the N25 between New Ross , Co Wexford , and Waterford @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mullinderg , Co Monaghan , traffic was down by 9 per cent from 9am to noon on Thursday .

Gardaí at a checkpoint on the M4 in Co Kildare, outbound from Dublin, as part of Operation Fanacht. Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA Wire
The volume of traffic in the Republic’s roads notably decreased just days into the Garda’s Operation Fanacht.
The operation has seen thousands of checkpoints and long delays arising in some places.
However, parts of Donegal have bucked the national trend with traffic flow in some parts of the county having increased two days into the operation on Thursday. Donegal is one of the worst-hit areas in the country, and the Derry-Strabane region, which it borders, is a UK Covid-19 black spot.
An analysis of Transport Infrastructure Ireland data by The Irish Times comparing traffic volume on the roads on Thursday with the same day last week shows a modest drop in traffic from 6am to 9am in most parts of the Republic.
READ MORE
However, that decline in traffic volume was more pronounced late in the day with reductions of almost one-third recorded in some places. It appears motorists continued to make trips in morning-rush hour, but journeys that normally took place later in the day were down.
The Garda has begun a new phase of Operation Fanacht to coincide with all counties in the Republic being placed on Level 3 of the Government’s Living with Covid-19 plan from midnight on Tuesday.
That has involved the erection of 132 static checkpoints on motorways and other arterial routes and thousands of other small and mobile checkpoints being moved around on smaller roads.
Garda Commissioner Drew Harris warned before the operation began that it would lead to traffic delays as traffic on motorways and other major roads was funneled into one lane. On Wednesday and Thursday queues of up to 8km were report at some if the static checkpoints.
However, Garda officers have been unapologetic, saying Level 3 meant people should only leave their county for essential reasons, adding the delays experience by those persisting with non-essential journeys would provide the “shock” required for them to desist.
Transport Infrastructure Ireland said it would take a number of days before the impact of Operation Fanacht on traffic volume became clear.
However, an analysis of data available on Thursday in the three-hour period from 6am to 9am showed a decline in traffic volume in 15 of the 18 locations reviewed by The Irish Times.
Traffic rose in only three locations – by up to 2 per cent – in Donegal. These included the N13 between Bridgend and Burnfoot, with only a very marginal increase noted, as well as the N14 between Lifford and Letterkenny and on the N15 Lifford to Castlefinn road, with an increase of 2 per cent on both of those roads.
Elsewhere, the decrease in traffic volume between 6am and 9am on Thursday was between 2 per cent and 10 per cent; the biggest decrease was on the M4 between junction 6 Celbridge and junction 7 Maynooth. On the N7 between junction 1 M50 and junction1a Newlands Cross there was a 7 per cent decline in traffic volume.
In Co Clare on the M18 between junction15 Crusheen and junction16 Gort the fall in traffic volume on Thursday morning was 9 per cent.
On the N2, between the Border with Northern Ireland and Mullinderg, Co Monaghan, traffic volume was down by 5 per cent on Thursday morning.
There were much more modest decreases, of only a fraction of 1 per cent, on the N22 between Killarney, Co Kerry, and Macroom, Ballyvourney, Co Cork, as well as on the N25 between New Ross, Co Wexford, and Waterford City.
On Thursday in the later period of the day between 9am and noon the decline in traffic volumes were more significant; down by between 5 per cent 29 per cent.
Garda sources said because Donegal and Dublin were already in Level 3 between the other 24 counties were moved to that level from midnight in Tuesday, some of the decline in traffic volume had already occurred before the relaunch of Operation Fanacht on Wednesday morning.
However, the same sources said if it became clear over time traffic had fallen further in Dublin since Wednesday morning but not in Donegal, as suggested by the analysis of early trends, that would be cause for concern.
On Thursday between 9am and 12 noon traffic volume was down by 20 per cent on the M4 between junction 6 Celbridge and junction 7 Maynooth. It was down by 11 per cent on the M1 Castlebellingham, Co Louth.
The biggest decrease, of just over 29 per cent, was on the N22 between Killarney and Macroom, Ballyvourney, Co Cork.
On the N7 at Citywest, Co Dublin, traffic volume was down by 15 per cent and had fallen by 14 per cent on the N11 near Coynes Cross, Timore, Co Wicklow.
On the N4 and the Longford bypass traffic was down by 13 per cent between 9am and 12noon on Thursday when compared with the same period last week and was down by 14 per cent on the N25 between New Ross, Co Wexford, and Waterford City. Between Border and Emyvale, Mullinderg, Co Monaghan, traffic was down by 9 per cent from 9am to noon on Thursday.


theirishtimes--2020-10-09--Coronavirus: Extended mid-term break discussed but plan for now is to keep schools open

The Government has discussed the possibility of extending the October mid-term break in an effort to stop the spread of coronavirus but no decision has been taken .
A Government source said the idea of keeping the schools closed for an extra week “ has been discussed briefly ” but no decision has been made yet .
The source said such a measure was being introduced in Northern Ireland and a number of other EU countries and was an option for the Republic also if the spread of the virus continued in the coming weeks .
It is understood the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no contacts have been made with unions or schools to date .
“ The current status is no decision but it ’ s possibly something to have in the armour in case numbers get bad , ” the source added .
A Department of Education spokesperson said in a statement : “ No decision has been taken to extend schools ’ mid-term breaks .
To date the evidence demonstrates that schools have reopened safely supported by significant investment to support all infection prevention and control measures recommended by the public health authorities .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and staff is a key priority at all levels of the Resilience and Recovery 2020-2021 : Plan for Living with Covid-19 .
At levels 1-4 inclusive , schools can remain open with protective measures , and at level 5 , recommendations will be based on the situation and evidence at the time.
” It said the Department of Health in recent days “ has advised the Department of Education and Skills that this issue has been afforded careful consideration by the National Public Health Emergency Team ( Nphet ) .
“ In recommending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time , even in the current trajectory of the disease , the Nphet has considered the national experience of school reopening to date , including the epidemiological data and information gathered through case and outbreak management .
“ The Irish experience to date supports the current international position that schools are low-risk environments for Covid-19 and are not key drivers of transmission in the community .
It points out that many cases of Covid-19 linked to schools in Ireland have been found to have exposure to the disease outside of the school environment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having some testing completed with 5,890 students and teachers involved in mass testing .
From the 252 schools that had mass tests there have been an additional 112 detected cases over and above original cases .
The Cabinet decided on Monday that that the whole country would move to Level 3 restrictions from midnight on Tuesday for three weeks , ending on October 27th .
Schools are due to be closed for mid-term from bank holiday Monday , October 26th until Friday October 30th .
However , under the latest plan being considered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ following week .
The Cabinet sub-committee in charge of the Government ’ s coronavirus strategy meets on Friday to consider the latest advice from the National Public Health Emergency Team ( Nphet ) .
The State ’ s public health team has not recommended a move to higher levels of restrictions after it met on Thursday , it has emerged .
However , two senior sources confirmed Nphet remained seriously concerned about coronavirus infections and has told Government that the situation must be closely monitored , but it stopped short of recommending further @ @ @ @ @ @ @ joined Donegal and Dublin and entered Level 3 on the Government ’ s five-level coronavirus alert system .
It has meant new restrictions on everyday life including on travel , indoor dining , weddings and funerals .
The Government on Monday controversially rejected a recommendation from Nphet to move to the most severe level , Level 5 , amid a public row between the Government and its public health advisers .
On Thursday night , one source said there was “ nothing too dramatic ” at the latest meeting of Nphet and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needed to see if the current restrictions are reducing the spread of infections .
This is despite Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan saying on Wednesday that he was more concerned about how Covid-19 is spreading in the State now than he was when the recommendation to move to Level 5 was made to Government .
“ All of the major indicators of this disease have gotten worse – our concern is getting greater and faster , ” he said .
A letter has been sent to Government from Nphet and will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alongside plans for enhanced enforcement of Level 3 measures including potential fines for those who breach travel restrictions .
There was one additional death related to the virus and 506 further cases of the disease reported by the Department of Health on Thursday .
In Northern Ireland , there were a further 923 cases of the disease reported , the second highest daily total during the pandemic .
Taoiseach Micheál Martin told British prime minister Boris Johnson that Northern Ireland needed financial support to fight a “ very worrying ” increase in virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Northern Ireland was in a “ grave and serious situation ” and that the North ’ s Ministers were facing “ some of the toughest decisions ” they have ever had to make .

Ireland’s schools may have a longer mid-term break to halt the spread of coronavirus. File photograph.
The Government has discussed the possibility of extending the October mid-term break in an effort to stop the spread of coronavirus but no decision has been taken.
A Government source said the idea of keeping the schools closed for an extra week "has been discussed briefly" but no decision has been made yet. The source said such a measure was being introduced in Northern Ireland and a number of other EU countries and was an option for the Republic also if the spread of the virus continued in the coming weeks.
It is understood the matter has only been mentioned informally and no contacts have been made with unions or schools to date.
Taoiseach Micheal Martin arriving at Government Buildings in Dublin to address the nation on Monday. Photograph: Julien Behal Photography/PA
Hospital Report
“The current status is no decision but it’s possibly something to have in the armour in case numbers get bad,” the source added.
READ MORE
A Department of Education spokesperson said in a statement: “No decision has been taken to extend schools’ mid-term breaks. To date the evidence demonstrates that schools have reopened safely supported by significant investment to support all infection prevention and control measures recommended by the public health authorities.
“Keeping schools safely open for children and staff is a key priority at all levels of the Resilience and Recovery 2020-2021: Plan for Living with Covid-19. At levels 1-4 inclusive, schools can remain open with protective measures, and at level 5, recommendations will be based on the situation and evidence at the time.”
It said the Department of Health in recent days "has advised the Department of Education and Skills that this issue has been afforded careful consideration by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet).
“In recommending that schools remain open at the present time, even in the current trajectory of the disease, the Nphet has considered the national experience of school reopening to date, including the epidemiological data and information gathered through case and outbreak management.
“The Irish experience to date supports the current international position that schools are low-risk environments for Covid-19 and are not key drivers of transmission in the community.
It points out that many cases of Covid-19 linked to schools in Ireland have been found to have exposure to the disease outside of the school environment
As of Tuesday, 252 schools were having some testing completed with 5,890 students and teachers involved in mass testing. From the 252 schools that had mass tests there have been an additional 112 detected cases over and above original cases.
Unions
Responding to a potential extension of the mid-term break, INTO general secretary John Boyle said it was imperative that when significant decisions are being made “education stakeholders are consulted and given due notice of the outcomes so we can manage any potential disruption to our primary schools”.
“There are alternatives to closure and to supporting learning remotely, such as partial opening where half of each class attends school on a rota basis,” he said.
“Having the EU’s largest classes leaves little room for distancing in primary schools and next Tuesday the government will have a chance to reduce our class sizes.”
Teachers’ Union of Ireland (TUI) general secretary Michael Gillespie also called for full consultation.
“Ahead of next week’s budget, we are calling for ongoing flexibility in terms of the funding available for the education system, as every resource required to ensure the health and safety of educators and students must be made available in the months ahead,” he said.
Cabinet
The Cabinet decided on Monday that that the whole country would move to Level 3 restrictions from midnight on Tuesday for three weeks, ending on October 27th. Schools are due to be closed for mid-term from bank holiday Monday, October 26th until Friday October 30th.
However, under the latest plan being considered, they would also remain closed the following week.
The Cabinet sub-committee in charge of the Government’s coronavirus strategy meets on Friday to consider the latest advice from the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet).
The State’s public health team has not recommended a move to higher levels of restrictions after it met on Thursday, it has emerged.
However, two senior sources confirmed Nphet remained seriously concerned about coronavirus infections and has told Government that the situation must be closely monitored, but it stopped short of recommending further restrictions.
The entire State this week joined Donegal and Dublin and entered Level 3 on the Government's five-level coronavirus alert system. It has meant new restrictions on everyday life including on travel, indoor dining, weddings and funerals.
The Government on Monday controversially rejected a recommendation from Nphet to move to the most severe level, Level 5, amid a public row between the Government and its public health advisers.
On Thursday night, one source said there was “nothing too dramatic” at the latest meeting of Nphet and that at least another 10 days will be needed to see if the current restrictions are reducing the spread of infections.
This is despite Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan saying on Wednesday that he was more concerned about how Covid-19 is spreading in the State now than he was when the recommendation to move to Level 5 was made to Government.
“All of the major indicators of this disease have gotten worse – our concern is getting greater and faster,” he said.
A letter has been sent to Government from Nphet and will be considered at a Cabinet sub-committee on Friday alongside plans for enhanced enforcement of Level 3 measures including potential fines for those who breach travel restrictions.
‘Very worrying’
There was one additional death related to the virus and 506 further cases of the disease reported by the Department of Health on Thursday.
In Northern Ireland, there were a further 923 cases of the disease reported, the second highest daily total during the pandemic.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin told British prime minister Boris Johnson that Northern Ireland needed financial support to fight a "very worrying" increase in virus cases.
First Minister Arlene Foster warned that Northern Ireland was in a "grave and serious situation" and that the North's Ministers were facing "some of the toughest decisions" they have ever had to make.


theirishtimes--2020-10-09--Covid-19 hotspots revealed: Parts of Donegal, Longford and Monaghan worst for virus

A further 506 cases of Covid-19 and one death from the virus were confirmed in the State yesterday as new figures on where the incidence of infection is highest were made public .
Lifford/Stranorlar in Co Donegal remains the national “ hotspot ” for Covid-19 , with a 14-day incidence of 602.6 cases per 100,000 people , according to the figures .
This is more than five times the national average of 116.4 , figures published on the Government ’ s data hub show .
Granard in Co Longford has the second-highest incidence nationally , at 384.1 , while Monaghan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 317.3 .
Kimmage/Rathmines has the highest incidence in Dublin , at 306.1 , and the fourth-highest figure nationally .
Other areas outside Dublin with high levels of the virus – an incidence above 200 – include Buncrana in Co Donegal , Kilrush in Co Clare , Boyle in Co Roscommon , Carrickmacross in Co Monaghan , Galway City Central , Ennis , Cork City South-Central and Bray East in Co Wicklow .
In the capital , Ballyfermot/Drimnagh , Ongar , Dublin North Inner City and Swords also have incidences over 200 .
Of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 64 per cent are under 45 years of age and 39 per cent are confirmed to be associated with outbreaks or are close contacts of a confirmed case , the National Public Health Emergency Team said in a statement .
Some 59 cases have been identified as community transmission .
Some 91 of the new cases were in Dublin , 76 in Cork , 53 in Donegal , 42 in Meath and the remaining 244 cases were located across 21 counties .
In the North figures released by the Department of Health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tested positive for Covid-19 in the last 24 hours , the second highest total on record .
In the last seven days 4,674 new cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the North , out of a total of 17,110 since the start of the pandemic .
One more coronavirus-related death was reported , bringing the total recorded by the Department to 587 .
The North ’ s first and deputy first ministers warned on Thursday of tough and significant decisions ahead as the number of coronavirus cases and hospitalisations continue to rise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Monaghan Town , said the same level of coronavirus restrictions had to be adopted on both sides of the Border .
“ If you look at their figures compared to our figures , and realising their population is a third of ours , it ’ s just massive , just bonkers numbers , so the risks are way higher by being up there , ” she said .
Restrictions similar to the Level 3 measures in place in State were introduced in Derry and Strabane from Monday , but conditions are more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ We have to ensure that having harsh restrictions on one side of the Border doesn ’ t mean people start flooding to the other side of the Border , ” Dr Duffy said .
She said young people , including some who had finished their Leaving Cert , had rented apartments in Belfast and had been socialising in the city , and that while “ quite a few of the initial cases were coming from that ” they had then returned home and spread the virus more widely in the community @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experienced outbreaks of Covid-19 last week , according to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre .
The 395 clusters of the disease reported in private homes involved 3,199 cases .
The country ’ s four Catholic archbishops have requested a meeting with Taoiseach Micheál Martin to address concerns about the loss of mass services during Covid-19 restrictions .
In their letter they say that for many the loss of these spiritual supports can be a source of great anxiety and fear , and can have a detrimental impact on their overall health and well-being @

A further 506 cases of Covid-19 and one death from the virus were confirmed in the State yesterday as new figures on where the incidence of infection is highest were made public.
Lifford/Stranorlar in Co Donegal remains the national "hotspot" for Covid-19, with a 14-day incidence of 602.6 cases per 100,000 people, according to the figures.
This is more than five times the national average of 116.4, figures published on the Government's data hub show.
Granard in Co Longford has the second-highest incidence nationally, at 384.1, while Monaghan local electoral area ranks third, at 317.3. Kimmage/Rathmines has the highest incidence in Dublin, at 306.1, and the fourth-highest figure nationally.
READ MORE
Other areas outside Dublin with high levels of the virus – an incidence above 200 – include Buncrana in Co Donegal, Kilrush in Co Clare, Boyle in Co Roscommon, Carrickmacross in Co Monaghan, Galway City Central, Ennis, Cork City South-Central and Bray East in Co Wicklow.
In the capital, Ballyfermot/Drimnagh, Ongar, Dublin North Inner City and Swords also have incidences over 200.
Of the 506 new cases confirmed on Thursday, 64 per cent are under 45 years of age and 39 per cent are confirmed to be associated with outbreaks or are close contacts of a confirmed case, the National Public Health Emergency Team said in a statement. Some 59 cases have been identified as community transmission.
Some 91 of the new cases were in Dublin, 76 in Cork, 53 in Donegal, 42 in Meath and the remaining 244 cases were located across 21 counties.
In the North figures released by the Department of Health on Thursday afternoon showed 923 people had tested positive for Covid-19 in the last 24 hours, the second highest total on record. In the last seven days 4,674 new cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the North, out of a total of 17,110 since the start of the pandemic. One more coronavirus-related death was reported, bringing the total recorded by the Department to 587.
The North’s first and deputy first ministers warned on Thursday of tough and significant decisions ahead as the number of coronavirus cases and hospitalisations continue to rise.
Dr Illona Duffy, a GP in Monaghan Town, said the same level of coronavirus restrictions had to be adopted on both sides of the Border.
“If you look at their figures compared to our figures, and realising their population is a third of ours, it’s just massive, just bonkers numbers, so the risks are way higher by being up there,” she said.
Harsh
Restrictions similar to the Level 3 measures in place in State were introduced in Derry and Strabane from Monday, but conditions are more relaxed in the rest of the North.
“We have to ensure that having harsh restrictions on one side of the Border doesn’t mean people start flooding to the other side of the Border,” Dr Duffy said.
She said young people, including some who had finished their Leaving Cert, had rented apartments in Belfast and had been socialising in the city, and that while "quite a few of the initial cases were coming from that" they had then returned home and spread the virus more widely in the community.
Meanwhile, almost 400 private homes experienced outbreaks of Covid-19 last week, according to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre. The 395 clusters of the disease reported in private homes involved 3,199 cases.
The country’s four Catholic archbishops have requested a meeting with Taoiseach Micheál Martin to address concerns about the loss of mass services during Covid-19 restrictions. In their letter they say that for many the loss of these spiritual supports can be a source of great anxiety and fear, and can have a detrimental impact on their overall health and well-being.


theirishtimes--2020-10-10--Like it or not, climate change will make everyone change their lives

Imagine the scene , it is a bright , crisp October morning in 2030 , yet the house , insulated heavily with the help of a State grant in 2027 , is still relatively cosy from the heating created the night before by an air-pump system .
Putting on the kettle for a morning cup of tea this October morning is the same as it was a decade after the government had launched the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development ( Amendment ) Bill 2020 .
Described back then as “ ground-breaking ” by the then Fianna Fáil leader , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s language was dry but it slowly changed much in the years that followed , with rows aplenty along the way .
In the hall an electric scooter lies up against a wall , while outside the family ’ s EV-powered cars stands silent .
Indeed it is often silent since the proper cycleway was built that encouraged everyone in the household to cycle more often .
Looking forward to that October 2030 morning , Kate Ruddock , deputy director of Friends of the Earth , says many of the most important changes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go unnoticed .
Today around 40 per cent of our home electricity is from renewable energy .
In a decade ’ s time this could have reached 70 per cent , much of it from offshore wind farms or solar generation .
“ What this legislation does is it changes the rules of the game , ” she says .
“ It changes the rules of how government and departments manage and transition our society to one that is not carbon-polluting anymore.
” With every sector of the economy – from transport to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ responsibility for an annual 7 per cent cut in emissions , are we saying goodbye to milk in our cereal , private cars and a warming fire against the autumn chill ?
Inefficient oil or gas boilers should be increasingly rare as homes are incentivised to use heat pumps and better insulation .
Warmer homes will mean less need for setting a fire or sparking up a stove .
One of the big questions about cutting emissions will be its impact on farming – a major contributor to greenhouse gases – and how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ envisages a sizeably depleted beef and dairy herd , with farmers paid to give land over to “ carbon sinks ” – the likes of forestry and hedgerows to offset emissions – which will nudge our diets towards more plant- and grain-based meals .
We will still have milk for cornflakes – although some might opt for oat milk – and maybe a weekend cooked breakfast as a treat , but a trip to the butchers for a Saturday night steak or some topside for Sunday dinner could prove more expensive .
Cheaper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and how we cook our food may change , with a switch to more efficient induction cookers rather than gas .
Heading out to get a newspaper – and , yes , they will still be there – will increasingly be on electric or pedal bikes as better infrastructure encourages more cycling and walking .
“ You ’ ll certainly not be getting in your SUV unless you have loads of money .
The cost of driving those high-emissions vehicles will be a lot higher , ” says Ruddock .
Dropping children to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in electric vehicles , and service station forecourts will be taken over by chargers rather than diesel and petrol pumps .
If going into town to meet friends , public transport should be much improved and increasingly electric .
But with electricity costs influenced by the weather – how windy or sunny it is – you might forgo the trip to do household chores that involve electrical appliances before it gets more expensive when it is dark or the wind has abated .
A weekend walk in the countryside or by the sea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , chief executive of the Irish Wind Energy Association , believes the legislation will allow for more wind turbines and solar panels around the country .
“ In terms of numbers it would not be a huge amount more .
There are around 250 wind farms now onshore in Ireland , and we probably need about another 80 by 2030 , with maybe four , five or six more offshore wind farms.
” Urban areas will be much quieter in 10 years ’ time with the decline of the combustion engine , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during the day becoming a thing of the past .
“ Zero-carbon modes of transport will have to be prioritised – walking , cycling , better public transport .
We don ’ t have time to wait for new ideas to be invented , we have to look at what works.
” Citing cities in the likes of Denmark and Sweden , Connolly says new cycling and walking infrastructure will mean Irish cities looking “ totally different to how they look today ” , with more space and more predictable journey times .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ We ’ ll be slimmer and fitter in 10 years ’ time.
” However , Dr Cara Augustenborg , environmental policy fellow at UCD , remains sceptical .
The legislation is “ about a 60 per cent improvement ” on existing climate action laws , but will only be as good as the government in power at any given time .
“ If you have a government that is super supportive of the agriculture sector it may put tougher restrictions on energy and transport , and let agriculture off the hook , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I don ’ t think we can say this Bill will change lives specifically – it will be the people who we elect who change people ’ s lives .
This just forces them to consider emissions in their policies.
” Augustenborg says the “ big thing that is missing ” in the Bill is a “ clear link between making carbon budgets and actually executing a plan that stays within that budget ” .
“ The changes made in the legislation are relatively positive , but I am sceptical .
It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ legislation , and it is not clear what penalties there are for not adhering to carbon budgets.
” Ruddock agrees that the legislation is aimed at a “ systematic approach rather than individual behaviour ” , but believes it could drive a shift in cultural attitudes too .
“ Individual behaviour needs to change , but the system within which they operate will be the driving force , ” she says .
“ I personally feel , and I know a lot of people feel , anxiety at impending climate and nature crises @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and putting in place a legal framework and structure to ensure we reduce our emissions gives me comfort .
“ I ’ m not going to say it will prevent a climate crisis but it gives a sense of peace that the government is taking responsibility , albeit quite late .
”

“There are around 250 wind farms now onshore in Ireland, and we probably need about another 80 by 2030, with maybe four, five or six more offshore wind farms.” Photograph: Getty Images
Imagine the scene, it is a bright, crisp October morning in 2030, yet the house, insulated heavily with the help of a State grant in 2027, is still relatively cosy from the heating created the night before by an air-pump system.
Putting on the kettle for a morning cup of tea this October morning is the same as it was a decade after the government had launched the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Bill 2020.
Described back then as "ground-breaking" by the then Fianna Fáil leader, Taoiseach Micheál Martin, the legislation's language was dry but it slowly changed much in the years that followed, with rows aplenty along the way.
In the hall an electric scooter lies up against a wall, while outside the family’s EV-powered cars stands silent. Indeed it is often silent since the proper cycleway was built that encouraged everyone in the household to cycle more often.
READ MORE
Looking forward to that October 2030 morning, Kate Ruddock, deputy director of Friends of the Earth, says many of the most important changes that will have happened by then will go unnoticed.
Today around 40 per cent of our home electricity is from renewable energy. In a decade’s time this could have reached 70 per cent, much of it from offshore wind farms or solar generation.
“What this legislation does is it changes the rules of the game,” she says . “It changes the rules of how government and departments manage and transition our society to one that is not carbon-polluting anymore.”
With every sector of the economy – from transport to farming to energy – forced to take responsibility for an annual 7 per cent cut in emissions, are we saying goodbye to milk in our cereal, private cars and a warming fire against the autumn chill?
Heat pumps
Inefficient oil or gas boilers should be increasingly rare as homes are incentivised to use heat pumps and better insulation. Warmer homes will mean less need for setting a fire or sparking up a stove.
One of the big questions about cutting emissions will be its impact on farming – a major contributor to greenhouse gases – and how that affects our eating habits.
Ruddock envisages a sizeably depleted beef and dairy herd, with farmers paid to give land over to “carbon sinks” – the likes of forestry and hedgerows to offset emissions – which will nudge our diets towards more plant- and grain-based meals.
We will still have milk for cornflakes – although some might opt for oat milk – and maybe a weekend cooked breakfast as a treat, but a trip to the butchers for a Saturday night steak or some topside for Sunday dinner could prove more expensive.
Cheaper energy bills could offset the price hikes and how we cook our food may change, with a switch to more efficient induction cookers rather than gas.
Heading out to get a newspaper – and, yes, they will still be there – will increasingly be on electric or pedal bikes as better infrastructure encourages more cycling and walking.
“You’ll certainly not be getting in your SUV unless you have loads of money. The cost of driving those high-emissions vehicles will be a lot higher,” says Ruddock.
Chargers
Dropping children to football or dancing lessons will mainly be in electric vehicles, and service station forecourts will be taken over by chargers rather than diesel and petrol pumps.
If going into town to meet friends, public transport should be much improved and increasingly electric.
But with electricity costs influenced by the weather – how windy or sunny it is – you might forgo the trip to do household chores that involve electrical appliances before it gets more expensive when it is dark or the wind has abated.
A weekend walk in the countryside or by the sea may also see changes. David Connolly, chief executive of the Irish Wind Energy Association, believes the legislation will allow for more wind turbines and solar panels around the country.
"In terms of numbers it would not be a huge amount more. There are around 250 wind farms now onshore in Ireland, and we probably need about another 80 by 2030, with maybe four, five or six more offshore wind farms."
Urban areas will be much quieter in 10 years’ time with the decline of the combustion engine, he suggests, the building rhythm of traffic during the day becoming a thing of the past.
“Zero-carbon modes of transport will have to be prioritised – walking, cycling, better public transport. We don’t have time to wait for new ideas to be invented, we have to look at what works.”
Citing cities in the likes of Denmark and Sweden, Connolly says new cycling and walking infrastructure will mean Irish cities looking "totally different to how they look today", with more space and more predictable journey times.
“People will feel much healthier. We’ll be slimmer and fitter in 10 years’ time.”
Sceptical
However, Dr Cara Augustenborg, environmental policy fellow at UCD, remains sceptical. The legislation is "about a 60 per cent improvement" on existing climate action laws, but will only be as good as the government in power at any given time.
“If you have a government that is super supportive of the agriculture sector it may put tougher restrictions on energy and transport, and let agriculture off the hook, for example,” she says.
“I don’t think we can say this Bill will change lives specifically – it will be the people who we elect who change people’s lives. This just forces them to consider emissions in their policies.”
Augustenborg says the “big thing that is missing” in the Bill is a “clear link between making carbon budgets and actually executing a plan that stays within that budget”.
“The changes made in the legislation are relatively positive, but I am sceptical. It is down to how seriously government takes the legislation, and it is not clear what penalties there are for not adhering to carbon budgets.”
Ruddock agrees that the legislation is aimed at a “systematic approach rather than individual behaviour”, but believes it could drive a shift in cultural attitudes too.
“Individual behaviour needs to change, but the system within which they operate will be the driving force,” she says.
“I personally feel, and I know a lot of people feel, anxiety at impending climate and nature crises, and to have government taking responsibility and putting in place a legal framework and structure to ensure we reduce our emissions gives me comfort.
“I’m not going to say it will prevent a climate crisis but it gives a sense of peace that the government is taking responsibility, albeit quite late.”


theirishtimes--2020-10-10--Travel sector fears EU traffic-light system will not be implemented

Ireland has the most draconian rules in Europe for people flying in and out , but has the weakest rules when it comes to following up with those arriving here to ensure they are self-isolating .
The Irish travel industry is in crisis and is crying out for help from the Government , not least in the way it deals with incoming visitors .
What is frustrating for the industry is the absence of a plan that everyone – from airlines and airports to the tour operators and tourists – can work to with any certainty .
“ It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clear roadmap with dog-grooming salons opening , but nothing for travel , ” one source told The Irish Times .
The travel green list was rolled out to much fanfare in July .
The idea was to have a list of countries people could safely travel to and from without having to restrict their movements .
It was green for go ; except it wasn ’ t .
Even as the Department of Foreign Affairs was saying it was fine to travel to the 15 countries on the list , the Department of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even to the green-list countries .
The list was due to be updated every two weeks , but nearly six weeks passed with nothing happening .
Then countries started falling off the list as Covid-19 case numbers across Europe climbed .
As of last Thursday , it had no names on it at all .
At the Oireachtas Transport Committee this week , Ryanair chief executive Eddie Wilson warned that Ireland was now saying “ we ’ re closed to every country in Europe ” .
The head of the Irish Tourism Industry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ equally scathing .
“ The green list has never worked , ” he said .
“ What the Government has done for months is put up a closed sign on the whole country .
It is bad for people and bad for the economy and doesn ’ t achieve very much.
” He called on the Government to introduce a traffic-light system as early as possible “ to save lives and save livelihoods ” .
That may happen next week if the Government adopts EU-wide rules which would see the introduction of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the European Centre for Disease Control .
Under those rules , countries where there are fewer than 25 cases per 100,000 people and the percentage of positive tests is less than 3 per cent will be designated green .
Countries will be deemed orange if there are fewer than 50 cases per 100,000 people , and red if there are more than 50 cases per 100,000 .
There will be a grey category for countries with insufficient data .
People travelling from red zones will have to restrict their movements for 14 days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they are negative .
Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan told the transport committee that EU foreign ministers will discuss the system at a meeting next Tuesday .
However , he warned that public health remained the responsibility of member states , indicating that adoption here might not be as complete as the travel sector hopes .
His comment set off alarm bells across the sector .
“ We need to see the system implemented in full , ” O ’ Mara Walsh said .
An Aer Lingus spokesman agreed and said Ireland ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ required in order to make “ a meaningful contribution ” to increasing the level of safe international travel .
While the virus entered the State due to international travel – in the same way it spread to every other country across the world – the number of cases linked to overseas travel in recent months has been less than 5 per cent .
Along with the traffic-light system , there are also proposals for rapid antigen testing facilities to be rolled out at airports .
Combined with a requirement for an all-clear test @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the country open more broadly .
But the Government has been slow to act on this .
One travel measure introduced here has been the passenger locator form whereby people coming from non-green list countries declare where they are going in the State and promise to restrict their movements for 14 days after arrival .
The system , critics say , is shambolic and ineffective .
People who fill in the form are supposed to get two text messages and a call from the authorities checking they are where they said they would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nothing to stop them travelling wherever they want and simply lying when questioned .
Even if they admit to not complying , there are no sanctions .
“ It is completely flawed and has never worked , ” says O ’ Mara Walsh .
Passengers with experience of the system have mixed views .
Agnes McLaverty arrived from Norway two weeks ago .
She completed an online form “ and have received several text messages ‘ asking ’ that I restrict my movements .
Not sure why so polite , but I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Atkins came to Ireland from the UK on a ferry and isolated for two weeks .
“ We filled in our forms but never heard from anyone .
”

Ireland has the most draconian rules in Europe for people flying in and out, but has the weakest rules when it comes to following up with those arriving here to ensure they are self-isolating.
The Irish travel industry is in crisis and is crying out for help from the Government, not least in the way it deals with incoming visitors.
What is frustrating for the industry is the absence of a plan that everyone – from airlines and airports to the tour operators and tourists – can work to with any certainty.
Hospital Report
“It’s madness, we were given a clear roadmap with dog-grooming salons opening, but nothing for travel,” one source told The Irish Times.
READ MORE
The travel green list was rolled out to much fanfare in July. The idea was to have a list of countries people could safely travel to and from without having to restrict their movements. It was green for go; except it wasn’t.
Even as the Department of Foreign Affairs was saying it was fine to travel to the 15 countries on the list, the Department of Health was advising against unnecessary travel, even to the green-list countries.
The list was due to be updated every two weeks, but nearly six weeks passed with nothing happening. Then countries started falling off the list as Covid-19 case numbers across Europe climbed. As of last Thursday, it had no names on it at all.
At the Oireachtas Transport Committee this week, Ryanair chief executive Eddie Wilson warned that Ireland was now saying "we're closed to every country in Europe".
The head of the Irish Tourism Industry Confederation Eoghan O'Mara Walsh is equally scathing. "The green list has never worked," he said. "What the Government has done for months is put up a closed sign on the whole country. It is bad for people and bad for the economy and doesn't achieve very much."
He called on the Government to introduce a traffic-light system as early as possible “to save lives and save livelihoods”.
That may happen next week if the Government adopts EU-wide rules which would see the introduction of a colour-coded system based on data provided by the European Centre for Disease Control.
Under those rules, countries where there are fewer than 25 cases per 100,000 people and the percentage of positive tests is less than 3 per cent will be designated green. Countries will be deemed orange if there are fewer than 50 cases per 100,000 people, and red if there are more than 50 cases per 100,000. There will be a grey category for countries with insufficient data.
People travelling from red zones will have to restrict their movements for 14 days or produce a Covid-19 test to show they are negative.
Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan told the transport committee that EU foreign ministers will discuss the system at a meeting next Tuesday. However, he warned that public health remained the responsibility of member states, indicating that adoption here might not be as complete as the travel sector hopes.
His comment set off alarm bells across the sector. “We need to see the system implemented in full,” O’Mara Walsh said.
An Aer Lingus spokesman agreed and said Ireland's adoption of the system is urgently required in order to make "a meaningful contribution" to increasing the level of safe international travel.
While the virus entered the State due to international travel – in the same way it spread to every other country across the world – the number of cases linked to overseas travel in recent months has been less than 5 per cent.
Antigen tests
Along with the traffic-light system, there are also proposals for rapid antigen testing facilities to be rolled out at airports. Combined with a requirement for an all-clear test from red-zone countries, this would allow the country open more broadly. But the Government has been slow to act on this.
One travel measure introduced here has been the passenger locator form whereby people coming from non-green list countries declare where they are going in the State and promise to restrict their movements for 14 days after arrival.
The system, critics say, is shambolic and ineffective.
People who fill in the form are supposed to get two text messages and a call from the authorities checking they are where they said they would be. There is, however, nothing to stop them travelling wherever they want and simply lying when questioned. Even if they admit to not complying, there are no sanctions.
“It is completely flawed and has never worked,” says O’Mara Walsh.
Passengers with experience of the system have mixed views.
Agnes McLaverty arrived from Norway two weeks ago. She completed an online form "and have received several text messages 'asking' that I restrict my movements. Not sure why so polite, but I've complied".
Meanwhile, Annie Atkins came to Ireland from the UK on a ferry and isolated for two weeks. "We filled in our forms but never heard from anyone."


theirishtimes--2020-10-10--Unenviable choices between living and livelihood due to lack health investment, doctors claim

The Government would not have to face unenviable choices on such a scale between living and livelihoods if the country had sufficiently invested in the health services , hospital consultants have argued .
The annual conference of the Irish Hospital Consultants Association ( IHCA ) will hear on Saturday that time and time again , the resolution of problems that were identified in the health system was long-fingered .
IHCA president Prof Alan Irvine will say that “ as a result , our health service has been backed into a corner and the consequences are hitting people hard ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ introduce greater transparency into how promised additional acute hospital and intensive care beds are actually delivered on the ground .
It will also hear calls for the “ centre ” to “ let go ” and devolve decision making and budgetary responsibility .
It will hear renewed demands on the Government to end the lower pay rates in place for medical specialists appointed after autumn 2012 .
Prof Irvine will say that Covid-19 “ had sharply brought home the co-dependency that exists between a sustainable economy and properly resourced health system ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ co-dependency which perhaps we didn ’ t truly appreciate up to now ” .
He will also suggest there should be greater transparency in the delivery of acute and intensive care hospital beds .
“ If we can publish what beds we don ’ t have , how about publishing what beds we do have and the plans to bridge the shortfall ?
A systematic approach to regularly publishing success metrics per hospital , starting with a live dashboard on bed numbers delivered and operating , would bring both transparency and greater understanding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ delivering bed capacity can be complex .
We know it is not a simple case of calling Mattress Mick .
But capacity at greater speed has been done before and a solution anchored in transparency would bring a new dynamic to this age-old challenge.
” Prof Irvine will say locally empowered , bottom-up decision making had been proven time and again to work-in healthcare and elsewhere .
“ It is time for the centre to let go .
Devolve decision making and budgetary responsibility .
Assign targets and oversight .
Enhance transparency in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ patient and professional gains will be immense .
”

The Government will increase permanently the number of critical care beds in hospitals, the Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly has said.
The Minister told the annual conference of the Irish Hospital Consultants Association (IHCA) on Saturday that he accepted that Ireland still lagged behind the rest of Europe; with an average of five or six intensive care unit beds per 100,000 population. He said this was about half the EU average.
"I promise to change that. I am working with my officials in the Department of Health and with the HSE to implement permanent critical care capacity, including securing the capacity that was put in place in the short term. We are going to be doing that next, year, the following year and the year after that."
“As part of the response to the pandemic, funding for 42 additional critical care beds was put in place in March and we now have between 280-285 open critical care beds on any given day. This is a welcome improvement on the pre-Covid position, but we all know that it is not enough.”
READ MORE
Mr Donnelly did not specify how many additional beds would be provided. The HSE is understood to be seeking an additional 17 intensive care beds this year, 20 next year and a further 125 in 2022. This would bring the total in public hospitals to nearly 450.
The Minister told the conference, which was held virtually, that as well as the provision of additional hospital beds and staff he wanted to see investment in implementing key strategies such as on maternity and trauma care which needed funding.
“I want to see investment in national programmes, such as the maternity strategy, which have not yet had the level of investment required to progress them at the speed we must.”
Challenging
Mr Donnelly said his winter could be the most challenging in living memory for the health service.
“We need to support people at home, treat people in the community where possible, and then have a world class hospital system for those who need it. That’s the challenge in the coming months and years.”
The Minister said that capital spending for the health services next year - on buildings and equipment -would increase to €880 million.
Sinn Féin health spokesman David Cullinane proposed that a 1,000-bed hospital for elective patients only should be built at Merlin Park in Galway where public land was available.
He suggested that this would take pressure off existing hospitals in the west, north west and south west.
He said there should be four elective-only hospitals built across the State.
He said Sinn Féin also proposed putting in place 1,100 additional hospital beds as part of its alternative budget.
He said frontline personnel including hospital consultants had not been given the tools and capacity they needed. He said consultants spent too much time fighting for equipment that they needed. He said that was the job of politicians.
Mr Cullinane criticised the two-tier pay system which, he said, saw specialist appointed since 2012 receive up to 30 per cent less than longer-serving colleagues.
The Minister said Government agreed in recent weeks to pass enabling legislation to address a number of pay issues.
“On the back of this decision I announced that we will be introducing consultant contracts for public health doctors. We will also be introducing a new Sláintecare contract (for hospital consultants). This will see full pay restoration in line with the existing A contract ( which provides for consultants to treat only public patients).”
Mr Donnelly said he supported pay equality for consultants on type B and C contracts - which have private practice rights.
“ This is something I committed to in Opposition. It is something I strongly advocated for at your conference last year. It is something I am still strongly committed to as Minister. I believe it to be one of the changes necessary to unlocking reform and addressing retention in our public system. It is a policy I am pursuing.”
IHCA president Prof Alan Irvine told the conference that there needed to be clear timelines for the promises new beds and hospitals to be put in place.
He called for greater devolution of decision-making from the HSE centre to the regions.
He also said that the two -tier pay system needed to be ended and the process for recruiting medical specialists to be escalated rapidly. He said this took far too long at present with up to 20 months in some cases.
Prof Irvine said Covid-19 “had sharply brought home the co-dependency that exists between a sustainable economy and properly resourced health system”. He will say that is a “ co-dependency which perhaps we didn’t truly appreciate up to now”.


theirishtimes--2020-10-10--Rose McGowan, president SVP: ‘The only criteria for help is need’

“ Poverty isn ’ t always about money .
Poverty is also about loneliness and lack of connection , ” says Rose McGowan , incoming president of the Society of St Vincent de Paul ( SVP ) , and only the second female one in its 176-year history .
In that time , the charity has survived the challenges of a famine , a civil war , the War of Independence , world wars and several recessions .
But the Covid-19 pandemic may be its most significant yet .
“ Once again , the most vulnerable people are the ones @ @ @ @ @ @ @ McGowan .
“ It ’ s about your underlying health .
It ’ s about where you live .
It ’ s about whether you have that spare cash ” when you were already on the margins .
Up to July , the society was taking 15,000 calls for help every month , many from people who had lost their jobs and needed help with rent and utility bills .
Lone parents – half of whom were already experiencing deprivation before Covid – have been particularly hard hit , says McGowan .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ August , and was replaced by new rental laws that mean landlords must give 90 days ’ notice , bought some time for people in vulnerable situations , but it has also left many with mounting arrears .
“ The children are at home , so they ’ re eating more .
You ’ re heating the house all day .
If you ’ ve no childcare , you can ’ t work.
” Before , children were getting fed in schools , but during lockdown that stopped .
McGowan cites teachers in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who delivered lunches to children themselves when schools were shut .
The pandemic has made all aspects of the society ’ s work more difficult .
Home , hospital and prison visits have been curtailed .
Assessments now have to be done over the phone , and food or vouchers dropped to the door .
When I arrive at the headquarters on Sean McDermott Street in Dublin , two volunteers have just left with 20 bags of shopping and vouchers , and they ’ ll be back later to pick up more .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ at 15 and describes herself as “ a doer ” , never imagined she would one day take on the volunteer role of president .
“ I never expected to be sitting here as a president .
Even earlier this year , I hesitated .
.
.
You fall into jobs in this society .
You say you ’ ll do it for a few weeks , and suddenly , you ’ re the president , ” she laughs .
She is taking a hands-on approach to her new role .
“ You @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on on the ground .
You have to have that knowledge.
” The day before we meet , she was helping a client who has just moved into her first rented home to buy beds .
She describes a call recently from a woman who was looking for sanitiser , because she couldn ’ t afford it .
“ I told her she could use soap and water , but she felt everybody else was using sanitiser , so it must be better , ” she says .
She believes we need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in light of the pandemic .
“ The isolation is a huge aspect of it .
Not everybody is able to operate a screen , or has a screen .
We would have a lot of very vulnerable men in this area , who might have had addiction problems , or might have been homeless ” who relied on weekly outings to the resource centre to play pool or have a cup of tea .
“ They ’ re saying , when are we going back to our club ?
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be able to restart and have six back at a time , but then another level of restrictions comes in , and we have to postpone it again.
” She ’ s equally worried about vulnerable children who are still being cocooned by their parents , and missing out on afterschool activities , or even school itself .
“ Parents are afraid .
Some of them are afraid to let their children go to school .
And so what ’ s happening is they ’ re left sitting in front of the TV @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is also a challenge .
In normal years , “ you wouldn ’ t be able to get into the building with all the toys and food ” that pile up during the charity ’ s Christmas appeal .
This year , because of hygiene restrictions , an appeal is going out for vouchers instead .
The problems people come to the St Vincent de Paul for help with have changed over the years , though food poverty has been a constant .
Recent data from the Central Statistics Office showed almost 900,000 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pandemic – up by more than 140,000 on the previous year .
One in five children doesn ’ t have enough nutritious food or warm clothing .
“ Poverty was always there .
When I started , people lived in tenements .
Now people have decent apartments and houses .
But we ’ re also visiting people in hostels and hotels.
” McGowan describes one family , a mother and three children , who left their family home in Co Clare after a marriage break-up .
“ She couldn ’ t pay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think of the Vincent de Paul .
They came to Dublin because the family were here , but the family couldn ’ t put them up.
” The family ended up living for two years in a hotel room .
“ They were eating in the car because they didn ’ t want the room to smell of chips.
” McGowan made sure they had fruit so they could eat in the room .
That woman turned out to be one of the charity ’ s success stories .
“ She has since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We got the daughter a bursary and she has gone to college in Galway .
They got a house just before last Christmas .
That woman was so determined.
” One thing that hasn ’ t changed during the pandemic is the stigma that surrounds poverty .
She gets calls from people who say , “ would you please leave the car up the road .
Because they ’ re afraid people will see the Vincent ’ s coming .
I visited a woman in a car for three years because the family @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” .
She never judges the cars in people ’ s driveways , or whether they have a credit card .
“ The only criteria for help is need.
” Even during a time when Frances Fitzgerald [ then minister for justice ] was referring to a “ cycle of scandals in the charity sector ” , St Vincent de Paul – which has a Catholic ethos but is lay-run – has managed to avoid being embroiled in controversy .
“ We ’ ve always been very transparent and open .
Our donors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and it ’ s their money .
They ’ re quite correct in wanting to know how their money is spent , ” she says .
“ We are very careful with governance .
We have safeguarding policies and procedures and three strands of training for volunteers.
” Since the beginning , volunteers have always visited in pairs , which acted as a safeguarding measure long before the term entered the public consciousness .
As we speak someone knocks on the door , and calls her to a video meeting of the Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ she is optimistic that we have become a more empathetic society over the past year .
“ People have been looking at life differently .
This pandemic has touched everybody in different ways .
And you don ’ t know what ’ s going on behind the hall door until you get there .
”

“Poverty isn’t always about money. Poverty is also about loneliness and lack of connection,” says Rose McGowan, incoming president of the Society of St Vincent de Paul (SVP), and only the second female one in its 176-year history.
In that time, the charity has survived the challenges of a famine, a civil war, the War of Independence, world wars and several recessions. But the Covid-19 pandemic may be its most significant yet. “Once again, the most vulnerable people are the ones who are struggling most,” says McGowan.
“It’s about your underlying health. It’s about where you live. It’s about whether you have that spare cash” when you were already on the margins. Up to July, the society was taking 15,000 calls for help every month, many from people who had lost their jobs and needed help with rent and utility bills.
Hospital Report
Lone parents – half of whom were already experiencing deprivation before Covid – have been particularly hard hit, says McGowan. The moratorium on rent evictions which expired in August, and was replaced by new rental laws that mean landlords must give 90 days’ notice, bought some time for people in vulnerable situations, but it has also left many with mounting arrears. “The children are at home, so they’re eating more. You’re heating the house all day. If you’ve no childcare, you can’t work.”
READ MORE
Before, children were getting fed in schools, but during lockdown that stopped. McGowan cites teachers in her own area of north inner-city Dublin who delivered lunches to children themselves when schools were shut.
The pandemic has made all aspects of the society’s work more difficult. Home, hospital and prison visits have been curtailed. Assessments now have to be done over the phone, and food or vouchers dropped to the door. When I arrive at the headquarters on Sean McDermott Street in Dublin, two volunteers have just left with 20 bags of shopping and vouchers, and they’ll be back later to pick up more.
McGowan, who started volunteering with SVP at 15 and describes herself as “a doer”, never imagined she would one day take on the volunteer role of president. “I never expected to be sitting here as a president. Even earlier this year, I hesitated . . . You fall into jobs in this society. You say you’ll do it for a few weeks, and suddenly, you’re the president,” she laughs.
She is taking a hands-on approach to her new role. “You have to know what’s going on on the ground. You have to have that knowledge.”
The day before we meet, she was helping a client who has just moved into her first rented home to buy beds. She describes a call recently from a woman who was looking for sanitiser, because she couldn’t afford it. “I told her she could use soap and water, but she felt everybody else was using sanitiser, so it must be better,” she says.
Isolation
She believes we need to broaden our definition of poverty, particularly in light of the pandemic. “The isolation is a huge aspect of it. Not everybody is able to operate a screen, or has a screen. We would have a lot of very vulnerable men in this area, who might have had addiction problems, or might have been homeless” who relied on weekly outings to the resource centre to play pool or have a cup of tea.
“They’re saying, when are we going back to our club? That’s heartbreaking. We keep thinking we might be able to restart and have six back at a time, but then another level of restrictions comes in, and we have to postpone it again.”
She’s equally worried about vulnerable children who are still being cocooned by their parents, and missing out on afterschool activities, or even school itself. “Parents are afraid. Some of them are afraid to let their children go to school. And so what’s happening is they’re left sitting in front of the TV all day.”
Fundraising during a pandemic is also a challenge. In normal years, “you wouldn’t be able to get into the building with all the toys and food” that pile up during the charity’s Christmas appeal. This year, because of hygiene restrictions, an appeal is going out for vouchers instead.
The problems people come to the St Vincent de Paul for help with have changed over the years, though food poverty has been a constant. Recent data from the Central Statistics Office showed almost 900,000 people were going without basics prior to the pandemic – up by more than 140,000 on the previous year. One in five children doesn’t have enough nutritious food or warm clothing.
“Poverty was always there. When I started, people lived in tenements. Now people have decent apartments and houses. But we’re also visiting people in hostels and hotels.”
McGowan describes one family, a mother and three children, who left their family home in Co Clare after a marriage break-up. “She couldn’t pay the mortgage. She didn’t think of the Vincent de Paul. They came to Dublin because the family were here, but the family couldn’t put them up.” The family ended up living for two years in a hotel room.
“They were eating in the car because they didn’t want the room to smell of chips.” McGowan made sure they had fruit so they could eat in the room.
That woman turned out to be one of the charity’s success stories. “She has since gone back to college and graduated. We got the daughter a bursary and she has gone to college in Galway. They got a house just before last Christmas. That woman was so determined.”
Stigma
One thing that hasn’t changed during the pandemic is the stigma that surrounds poverty. She gets calls from people who say, “would you please leave the car up the road. Because they’re afraid people will see the Vincent’s coming. I visited a woman in a car for three years because the family didn’t know I was helping”.
She never judges the cars in people’s driveways, or whether they have a credit card. “The only criteria for help is need.”
Even during a time when Frances Fitzgerald [then minister for justice] was referring to a "cycle of scandals in the charity sector", St Vincent de Paul – which has a Catholic ethos but is lay-run – has managed to avoid being embroiled in controversy. "We've always been very transparent and open. Our donors are the public, like you, and it's their money. They're quite correct in wanting to know how their money is spent," she says.
“We are very careful with governance. We have safeguarding policies and procedures and three strands of training for volunteers.” Since the beginning, volunteers have always visited in pairs, which acted as a safeguarding measure long before the term entered the public consciousness.
As we speak someone knocks on the door, and calls her to a video meeting of the Covid-19 response committee. Despite the challenges, she is optimistic that we have become a more empathetic society over the past year. “People have been looking at life differently. This pandemic has touched everybody in different ways. And you don’t know what’s going on behind the hall door until you get there.”


theirishtimes--2020-10-10--Gardaí arrest man over alleged €500,000 pension fraud

Gardaí in Cork have arrested a 57-year-old man for questioning about a €500,000 old-age pension fraud after he continued collecting payments every week for both his deceased parents for about 30 years .
Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection officials became suspicious when the man was asked to produce proof his father was alive in order to qualify for the Centenarian ’ s Bounty .
The Centenarian ’ s Bounty involves a 100-year-old receiving a payment of €2,540 and congratulatory letter signed by President Michael D Higgins on their birthday once the department is satisfied about the veracity of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Cork ’ s northside just after 9am on Friday when he went to collect the pension payments for both his dead father and mother at the general post office on Oliver Plunkett Street in Cork city centre .
The man was arrested and brought for questioning to the Bridewell Garda station , where he was detained under section 4 of the Criminal Justice Act which allows gardaí hold suspects for up to 24 hours .
Gardaí believe the man continued collecting his father ’ s pension every week at the GPO after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he similarly continued collecting his mother ’ s pension after she died some years later .
Gardaí believe the man collected approximately €520,000 in total in the pension fraud which , stretching back some 33 years , is believed to be one of the longest of its kind uncovered in the history of the State .
The man ’ s arrest follows a joint investigation by An Garda Síochána and the department , which notified gardaí of suspicions about the man ’ s claims .
Gardaí and department officials carried out a follow-up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home on the northside of Cork on Friday and seized some €9,800 in cash , which they believe are the proceeds of his suspected fraud .
Det Insp Danny Coholan of Anglesea Street Garda station said : “ Gardaí and the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection have a long-standing relationship which aims to target those who attempt to defraud the State.
” Three years ago , a Dublin man was jailed for 18 months after he admitted stealing almost €160,000 in benefits .
Brian Bobey from Walkinstown Parade in Dublin began @ @ @ @ @ @ @ her death in May 1997 and was only caught in October 2013 when the then Department of Social Welfare began an investigation .
Mr Bobey , then aged 64 , offered to repay the money at a rate of €50 a week but Judge Patricia Ryan at Dublin Circuit Criminal Court jailed him for 18 months after hearing it would take him 63 years to repay the debt at such a rate .

Bridewell Garda station in Cork: The Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection officials became suspicious when a man was asked to produce proof his father was alive in order to qualify for the Centenarian’s Bounty. Photograph: Alan Betson
Gardaí in Cork arrested a 57-year-old man for questioning about a €500,000 old-age pension fraud after he continued collecting payments every week for both his deceased parents for about 30 years on Friday.
Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection officials became suspicious when the man was asked to produce proof his father was alive in order to qualify for the Centenarian’s Bounty.
The Centenarian’s Bounty involves a 100-year-old receiving a payment of €2,540 and congratulatory letter signed by President Michael D Higgins on their birthday once the department is satisfied about the veracity of the claim.
Detectives arrested the man from Cork's northside just after 9am on Friday when he went to collect the pension payments for both his dead father and mother at the general post office on Oliver Plunkett Street in Cork city centre.
READ MORE
33 years
The man was arrested and brought for questioning to the Bridewell Garda station, where he was detained under section 4 of the Criminal Justice Act which allows gardaí hold suspects for up to 24 hours.
Gardaí believe the man continued collecting his father’s pension every week at the GPO after the pensioner died in 1987 and that he similarly continued collecting his mother’s pension after she died some years later.
Gardaí believe the man collected approximately €520,000 in total in the pension fraud which, stretching back some 33 years, is believed to be one of the longest of its kind uncovered in the history of the State.
The man's arrest followed a joint investigation by An Garda Síochána and the department, which notified gardaí of suspicions about the man's claims. The man was released without charge late on Friday night. A Garda spokeswoman said a file would be prepared for the Director of Public Prosecutions and the investigations were ongoing.
Cork’s northside
Gardaí and department officials carried out a follow-up search of the man’s family home on the northside of Cork on Friday and seized some €9,800 in cash, which they believe are the proceeds of his suspected fraud.
Det Insp Danny Coholan of Anglesea Street Garda station said: “Gardaí and the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection have a long standing relationship which aims to target those who attempt to defraud the State.”
Three years ago, a Dublin man was jailed for 18 months after he admitted stealing almost €160,000 in benefits.
Brian Bobey from Walkinstown Parade in Dublin began claiming his mother’s pension after her death in May 1997 and was only caught in October 2013 when the then Department of Social Welfare began an investigation.
Mr Bobey, then aged 64, offered to repay the money at a rate of €50 a week but Judge Patricia Ryan at Dublin Circuit Criminal Court jailed him for 18 months after hearing it would take him 63 years to repay the debt at such a rate.


theirishtimes--2020-10-10--Budget 2021: Who will be the winners and losers?

There is a contradiction at the heart of Budget 2021 .
Billions of euro will be pumped into the economy but much of the money will be used to prop up the economy , not grow it .
“ It is not going to be a budget that will put money in your pocket ; it is a budget that will keep money in your pocket , ” one Cabinet Minister told The Irish Times , as the final work on the document nears its conclusion .
Will people even notice ?
How has the Coalition put together this budget @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the extraordinary political , social and economic consequences of Covid-19 be managed ?
There will be clear winners among some departments next Tuesday , including social welfare , health and jobs while the Simon Harris-led new Department of Further Education will be tasked with retraining people and get them back to work .
Big-spending departments such as housing , as well as Green Party leader Eamon Ryan ’ s transport and energy departments , will do well , too , as the Government seeks to make good on promises in its programme for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is being followed .
If a measure can honour pledges , or be shown to be useful in coping with the challenges of Covid-19 or Brexit , it is looked upon favourably .
Those involved say this budget preparation has been markedly different to that of recent years , though there is praise for the way Minister for Public Expenditure Michael McGrath has handled bilateral meetings .
Previously , such gatherings were tight affairs , with just three or four people involved .
Coalition government .
especially one involving three parties , requires @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ministers are accompanied by their junior colleagues from the other parties .
Previously , they would often have been left in the corridor .
Senior officials are there , too .
Ossian Smyth , the Green Party Minister of State at the Department of Public Expenditure , has , for example , frequently been at McGrath ’ s side during such meetings .
Meanwhile , the relationship between McGrath and Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe is thought to be functioning well , partly because they became used to each during the days of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Fianna Fáil man was on the Opposition benches , but was closely involved in framing the budget .
“ You could argue they wrote the last three or four budgets together , ” says one Minister .
A well-placed source said McGrath and Donohoe ’ s relationship is “ the only functional element of a deeply dysfunctional Government ” .
Much of the framework for the talks was laid down in the July stimulus plan , which has acted as a kind of policy petri dish .
A wide variety of ideas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ McGrath and Donohoe .
The successful ones will be extended ; the ineffective ones dropped .
For example , the Apprenticeship Incentivisation Scheme will be extended , but the cut in VAT from 23 to 21 per cent will be allowed to lapse .
Other tax measures championed by some parties , such as Fianna Fáil ’ s desired cuts in Capital Gains Tax , will not be adopted , due to ongoing opposition from the Greens .
The perennial ask from the hospitality sector , that the bailout-era VAT cut to nine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the balance .
Traditional opposition from the Department of Finance is compounded by a sense that such a cut will make little difference .
Nothing will be done to hurt construction or property ; these sectors offer jobs and tax revenues .
Therefore , cash raids on property investment funds in the shape of the stamp duty reforms seen in recent years are unlikely .
In a world where Government expects pubs and restaurants to be closed for significant chunks of the year to come , it may be that broader and simpler @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and expanded grants are almost certain , tightly targeted at “ frozen ” sectors of the economy , with sector-specific local authority rates holidays for businesses , in preference to blanket exemptions , to keep companies “ alive ” .
These reforms will form a core part of Fine Gael post-budget trumpeting , so it is no surprise that much of it will be channelled through Tánaiste Leo Varadkar ’ s department .
Fianna Fáil will point to large capital spending , especially on housing , which is controlled by Fianna Fáil Minister @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the Department of Health is a foregone conclusion .
The contradictory nature of Budget 2021 is brought into sharp focus by the challenges facing the Green Party .
Its leader will be able to point to massively increased capital spending in key areas .
Money for retrofitting is expected , along with more investment in cycling and walking .
However , the party ’ s policies may also throw up potential landmines .
Reforms to vehicle tax , targeting gas guzzlers , are almost certain ; one senior source says it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ climate change .
“ You can have as many SUVs as you like , but then you can ’ t have cows.
” Privately , the Greens insist the measures will actually make things cheaper for the majority of motorists , but they concede that “ a lot of people will see it as a story of increasing costs ” .
Ryan will also face probable pushback from his own backbenchers who want to see social justice measures , such as increased spending on mental health and disability services .
In remarks that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ budgetary speaking points , one Green backbencher called for higher deficit spending , in line with other European countries , to support these measures .
“ It would be very , very difficult to vote for a budget without those things properly funded , ” warned the backbencher .
It is also a big budget for Sinn Féin .
Pearse Doherty will deliver the first full-throated Opposition rebuff to the budget in several years , again , a consequence of confidence and supply .
Doherty , though , will have to convince voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ under-powered , and that much of the extra money is not to stimulate the economy , but to sustain the response to the pandemic .
To mangle former Labour minister Pat Rabbitte ’ s metaphor , Sinn Féin will hope that for consumers , extra PPE and hand sanitiser will butter no parsnips .
Its alternate budget , which would add €5.3 billion to spending , will be key to his argument .
Meanwhile , there is also the prospect of yet more cash making its way into the economy .
The national @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month , and there is the promise of significant extra funding associated with both Brexit and Covid response funds from Brussels .
As the Government faces into huge uncertainty , the sense is that these may act as a reserve fuel tank , deployed to top up schemes – or indeed entire departments – as they exhaust their allocations .
One candidate for such a top-up would be funding further extensions to the Pandemic Unemployment Payment , which has already been flagged by Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys .
However , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top level of €350 .
As in any budget , even in a budget like none before , there will be winners and losers .

There is a contradiction at the heart of Budget 2021. Billions of euro will be pumped into the economy but much of the money will be used to prop up the economy, not grow it.
“It is not going to be a budget that will put money in your pocket; it is a budget that will keep money in your pocket,” one Cabinet Minister told The Irish Times, as the final work on the document nears its conclusion.
Will people even notice? How has the Coalition put together this budget like no other? And how will the extraordinary political, social and economic consequences of Covid-19 be managed?
Clear winners
There will be clear winners among some departments next Tuesday, including social welfare, health and jobs while the Simon Harris-led new Department of Further Education will be tasked with retraining people and get them back to work.
READ MORE
Big-spending departments such as housing, as well as Green Party leader Eamon Ryan’s transport and energy departments, will do well, too, as the Government seeks to make good on promises in its programme for government pledges.
One fairly simple formula is being followed. If a measure can honour pledges, or be shown to be useful in coping with the challenges of Covid-19 or Brexit, it is looked upon favourably.
Those involved say this budget preparation has been markedly different to that of recent years, though there is praise for the way Minister for Public Expenditure Michael McGrath has handled bilateral meetings.
Previously, such gatherings were tight affairs, with just three or four people involved. Coalition government. especially one involving three parties, requires greater numbers to be involved. Senior Ministers are accompanied by their junior colleagues from the other parties. Previously, they would often have been left in the corridor. Senior officials are there, too.
Ossian Smyth, the Green Party Minister of State at the Department of Public Expenditure, has, for example, frequently been at McGrath's side during such meetings.
Meanwhile, the relationship between McGrath and Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe is thought to be functioning well, partly because they became used to each during the days of confidence and supply. Back then, the Fianna Fáil man was on the Opposition benches, but was closely involved in framing the budget. "You could argue they wrote the last three or four budgets together," says one Minister. A well-placed source said McGrath and Donohoe's relationship is "the only functional element of a deeply dysfunctional Government".
Much of the framework for the talks was laid down in the July stimulus plan, which has acted as a kind of policy petri dish. A wide variety of ideas were then thrown together and vetted by McGrath and Donohoe.
The successful ones will be extended; the ineffective ones dropped. For example, the Apprenticeship Incentivisation Scheme will be extended, but the cut in VAT from 23 to 21 per cent will be allowed to lapse.
Other tax measures championed by some parties, such as Fianna Fáil's desired cuts in Capital Gains Tax, will not be adopted, due to ongoing opposition from the Greens.
The perennial ask from the hospitality sector, that the bailout-era VAT cut to nine per cent be restored, is in the balance. Traditional opposition from the Department of Finance is compounded by a sense that such a cut will make little difference.
Nothing will be done to hurt construction or property; these sectors offer jobs and tax revenues. Therefore, cash raids on property investment funds in the shape of the stamp duty reforms seen in recent years are unlikely.
In a world where Government expects pubs and restaurants to be closed for significant chunks of the year to come, it may be that broader and simpler cash transfers will be preferred.
Enhanced and expanded grants are almost certain, tightly targeted at "frozen" sectors of the economy, with sector-specific local authority rates holidays for businesses, in preference to blanket exemptions, to keep companies "alive". These reforms will form a core part of Fine Gael post-budget trumpeting, so it is no surprise that much of it will be channelled through Tánaiste Leo Varadkar's department.
Fianna Fáil will point to large capital spending, especially on housing, which is controlled by Fianna Fáil Minister Daragh O’Brien.
Massive spending by the Department of Health is a foregone conclusion.
The contradictory nature of Budget 2021 is brought into sharp focus by the challenges facing the Green Party. Its leader will be able to point to massively increased capital spending in key areas. Money for retrofitting is expected, along with more investment in cycling and walking. However, the party’s policies may also throw up potential landmines.
Reforms to vehicle tax, targeting gas guzzlers, are almost certain; one senior source says it is the unavoidable consequence of binding targets on climate change. “You can have as many SUVs as you like, but then you can’t have cows.”
Privately, the Greens insist the measures will actually make things cheaper for the majority of motorists, but they concede that “a lot of people will see it as a story of increasing costs”.
Ryan will also face probable pushback from his own backbenchers who want to see social justice measures, such as increased spending on mental health and disability services. In remarks that are close to Sinn Féin’s budgetary speaking points, one Green backbencher called for higher deficit spending, in line with other European countries, to support these measures. “It would be very, very difficult to vote for a budget without those things properly funded,” warned the backbencher.
It is also a big budget for Sinn Féin. Pearse Doherty will deliver the first full-throated Opposition rebuff to the budget in several years, again, a consequence of confidence and supply.
Doherty, though, will have to convince voters that the Government’s response is under-powered, and that much of the extra money is not to stimulate the economy, but to sustain the response to the pandemic.
To mangle former Labour minister Pat Rabbitte’s metaphor, Sinn Féin will hope that for consumers, extra PPE and hand sanitiser will butter no parsnips. Its alternate budget, which would add €5.3 billion to spending, will be key to his argument.
Meanwhile, there is also the prospect of yet more cash making its way into the economy. The national economic recovery plan will be launched next month, and there is the promise of significant extra funding associated with both Brexit and Covid response funds from Brussels.
As the Government faces into huge uncertainty, the sense is that these may act as a reserve fuel tank, deployed to top up schemes – or indeed entire departments – as they exhaust their allocations. One candidate for such a top-up would be funding further extensions to the Pandemic Unemployment Payment, which has already been flagged by Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys. However, the rate will not be restored to the top level of €350.
As in any budget, even in a budget like none before, there will be winners and losers.