fivethirtyeight--2020-03-03--What Are The Biggest Super Tuesday Wild Cards?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight ’ s weekly politics chat .
The transcript below has been lightly edited .
sarahf ( Sarah Frostenson , politics editor ) : Today is Super Tuesday !
The Super Bowl of primary elections — more than one-third of all pledged delegates will have been awarded after everything is said and done .
But it appears we might be in for a bit more chaos and uncertainty than we ’ d budgeted for after Joe Biden ’ s big win in South Carolina .
Both Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have dropped out of the race , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it known they will endorse Biden .
Where does this leave us going into things ?
ameliatd ( Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux , senior writer ) : Before we begin , I feel like we should pause and think of the sad early voters who already cast their ballots for Buttigieg and Klobuchar .
micah ( Micah Cohen , managing editor ) : Early voting isn ’ t for the faint of heart .
ameliatd : You have to be ready for some 💔 .
geoffrey.skelley ( Geoffrey Skelley , elections analyst ) : Based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re talking about roughly 10 to 15 percent of voters in most of these Super Tuesday states who previously were with Buttigieg and Klobuchar .
That ’ s a sizable chunk of the electorate that now moves to Biden , Michael Bloomberg , Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in some order .
My guess would be for ideological reasons that Biden stands to gain the most , especially coming off his South Carolina win , but it ’ s also true that Warren ’ s support overlaps a lot with Klobuchar and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ affluent voters .
ameliatd : In terms of the Super Tuesday delegate math , though , fewer candidates is bad for Sanders — especially in California , which is where I ’ ve been focusing for the last week .
Sanders is leading in California polls and is almost certainly going to get more than 15 percent of the vote statewide and in all 53 congressional districts .
When the field was more crowded , it looked like he might be cruising toward a huge delegate haul , as candidates like Klobuchar and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the votes and prevent others from cracking 15 percent .
Without them in the race , Warren , Biden and Bloomberg all stand to take more delegates .
Now , it ’ s true that Biden/Warren/Bloomberg all have a better shot of getting delegates in California than in other states where they ’ re flirting with the 15 percent threshold ( Warren and Bloomberg in particular ) , but I have to guess that many would-be Buttigieg/Klobuchar voters will lean toward Biden as a strategic not-Sanders choice .
Maybe even some Warren/Bloomberg folks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 22 percent of the California Democrats have returned their mail-in ballots , but that ’ s actually low compared to previous primaries .
It seems like people were waiting to make their decision , and they might be swayed by the sense that this has become a two-person race .
This is purely anecdotal , but I talked to several California voters over the weekend who were going to vote for Warren but switched to Biden after his win in South Carolina .
Of course , I don ’ t know how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was pretty striking to hear it from multiple voters at a fairly sparsely populated early voting location .
sarahf : It ’ s really unclear to me who benefits at this point .
Obviously , there ’ s a strong argument to be made for Biden .
These are candidates dropping out from his “ moderate lane , ” and in theory , a good chunk of Klobuchar ’ s support should go to him .
But as Nate wrote last night after Buttigieg dropped out , their support will also kinda sorta @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still pick up some of this support from the sheer fact that he is currently the most popular Democrat in the field .
ameliatd : But in the places where Sanders is already comfortably clearing 15 percent , having a few new supporters doesn ’ t benefit him as much .
It ’ s all about the delegates !
sarahf : That ’ s a good point , Amelia .
There also seems to be some pretty strong evidence that “ the party is deciding , ” even if it ’ s at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ case you missed it , former Sen. Harry Reid also endorsed Biden on Monday . )
geoffrey.skelley : Yeah , I ’ ve been tracking the rate at which Democratic officeholders have endorsed this year , and it ’ s been at a slightly slower rate than Republicans in 2016 .
So the party really wasn ’ t deciding .
But we ’ ve now seen a number of congressional endorsements for Biden pop up here in the scramble before Super Tuesday , so that does suggest there ’ s a rally-around-Biden effect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ micah : If they all flock to Biden en masse , that would also be one of the more effective ways to influence the primary — rather than endorsing him in drips .
At least , that would be my guess .
ameliatd : The fact that it ’ s happening all at once does make the endorsements feel much more overwhelming and decisive , which could have a bigger impact on voters than a slow dribble of endorsements they may not even hear about .
sarahf : These last-minute endorsements definitely have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but couldn ’ t it also maybe motivate some of Sanders ’ s base who aren ’ t your typical primary voters ?
ameliatd : I am really , really curious to see if Sanders ’ s big investment in ground game/voter turnout pays off .
He ’ s got an extremely impressive operation in California .
But the less-frequent voters he ’ s targeting actually have to show up .
On the other hand , another thing I am wondering about : How much will Biden ’ s lack of a real @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tuesday ?
He has basically no presence in California and a lot of other states , too .
geoffrey.skelley : Eh , there ’ s not much evidence that Sanders is bringing out atypical primary voters .
So far Sanders has succeeded by broadening his appeal — especially among nonwhite voters — not by expanding his base .
So I guess we ’ ll see if that changes .
But it is possible , as Amelia says , that Biden won ’ t be in as good a position to capitalize on his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because of resource shortages .
He doesn ’ t have much of an on-the-ground footprint .
ameliatd : I ’ d argue , though , Geoffrey , that we haven ’ t really seen a test of Sanders ’ s ground game in a big , diverse state where he ’ s invested a lot of resources ( like California ! )
.
It could still be a flop — but I think it ’ s too early to write off his turnout efforts .
sarahf : Yeah , Geoffrey , you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s turnout bet hasn ’ t really yielded any results , but I could see all of this firing up his base .
ameliatd : Right , especially if they feel like the Democratic establishment is closing ranks to keep Sanders out .
micah : They already feel that way !
ameliatd : I think this could seem like all of their fears realized though !
geoffrey.skelley : Well , it would certainly confirm what they already believe .
micah : Though , there ’ s nothing really shady about what the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how our democracy works .
And I think we ’ re very close to being able to say that “ the party ” has decided — whether voters care is another story .
geoffrey.skelley : Any rallying against Sanders is shady , Micah .
Ipso facto .
At least according to my Twitter timeline .
sarahf : It ’ s not shady , but I think it can be spun effectively if you ’ re Sanders .
ameliatd : To be fair , I ’ m not sure how many Sanders supporters are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fans here are so excited about his impending win .
But this might be the moment that they try to convince , say , their Warren-supporting friends that the progressive candidates are under attack , and it ’ s time to throw their weight behind Sanders because he could actually win .
sarahf : That ’ s a good point , Amelia — I wonder if instead of Warren benefitting much from Klobuchar and Buttigieg dropping out , it instead hurts her because of this idea that there is now only really two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ progressive , you better vote Sanders .
micah : That seems very plausible to me .
geoffrey.skelley : Yeah , excellent point .
It does seem as if Warren could benefit quite a bit from Buttigieg and Klobuchar departing in at least some of these Super Tuesday states .
Their vote shares in our model are pretty highly correlated from district to district .
But they also correlate quite a bit with Sanders ’ s in a place like Texas .
sarahf : How confident should we feel in the polling picture ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ geoffrey.skelley : We ’ ve barely got any post-South Carolina polls , and no survey data post-Buttigieg dropout or post-Klobuchar dropout .
So the race is in flux .
The one national survey we have that is entirely post-South Carolina is from Morning Consult , and it found Biden surging back to within 3 points of Sanders , a marked shift from his 13-point deficit before South Carolina .
sarahf : Well , so I think we can be somewhat confident in the BIG toplines .
This is from Nathaniel Rakich ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the South Carolina results and some new polls .
And as you can see , it ’ s really only a two-person race now .
Now some of those margins may be in debate .
Is Texas really that close ?
Does Sanders really have that wide of a margin in California ?
🤷♀ But I don ’ t think we ’ re flying entirely blind , although obviously , quite impaired .
micah : So , there are just way too many wild cards to be at all sure the current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ ve discussed , Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out — where do their voters go ?
• How do voters react to Biden ’ s South Carolina win ?
We can make educated guesses about where Buttigieg and Klobuchar ’ s supporters will go , and maybe that Morning Consult poll is accurate , but there ’ s just so much uncertainty .
In addition , as Geoffrey said , we have only a little bit of data on how where Bloomberg stands in the wake of his first two debates and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ameliatd : I ’ ll be really curious to see what happens in Klobuchar ’ s home state of Minnesota .
geoffrey.skelley : Yeah , I was wondering about the Land of 10,000 Lakes .
sarahf : There are a lot of wild cards — but I ’ m still not sure how much the topline has changed .
Neither Buttigieg or Klobuchar had a real path to the nomination , and I ’ m not sure them dropping out now does enough to put Biden over the edge .
micah : They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nomination but they had a meaningful share of the vote !
sarahf : I ’ ll give you some on Buttigieg , Micah , but outside of Minnesota , I strongly disagree with you on Klobuchar .
micah : Buttigieg had about 10 percent in our national polling average .
Klobuchar had 5 percent .
So that ’ s 15 points available to someone .
sarahf : But they were both really struggling to crack 15 percent statewide , not to mention in a number of districts .
micah : But how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by less than 15 points ?
geoffrey.skelley : If the goal of many Democrats is to halt Sanders , it might have made more strategic sense for Klobuchar to stay in through Super Tuesday because she might have won her home state or come in a close second to Sanders there .
She ’ d certainly have done better than Biden .
However , it ’ s possible Biden now has a better shot to break 15 percent there and win his own delegates .
Then again , she probably didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so maybe the Biden campaign had little say in the timing .
The Klobuchar campaign would deny that — they revealed that their last internal poll had Klobuchar up quite a bit over Sanders , but internals usually show favorable numbers , so a few grains of salt are needed .
In our forecast , Sanders is now a favorite to win Minnesota with a 2 in 3 shot .
That ’ s not out of range of someone else winning , but before Klobuchar dropped out , she and Sanders were running @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exit could help Sanders add another win to his Super Tuesday tally .
ameliatd : The margins are also important !
In a state like California with hundreds of delegates , it makes a big difference if Biden can claw more delegates away from Sanders .
And he ’ s more likely to do that with Buttigieg and Klobuchar out of the race .
Or maybe she just wanted to upstage Buttigieg by endorsing Biden first !
What will we do now that their cutthroat Midwestern energy is out of the race ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to note , courtesy of these dropouts — there are now only two women left in the race going into Super Tuesday .
And the top four candidates ( sorry , Gabbard ) are 70 and older .
micah : I mean , again , apologies to Gabbard , but it ’ s really just Warren left .
sarahf : So here ’ s something to chew on about our assumption that Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropping out mainly helps Biden .
Both Klobuchar and Buttigieg were doing well among white , college-educated voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong suit — if anything maybe Warren will stand to benefit a little here ?
micah : Either Warren or Sanders could pick up a lot of Buttigieg and Klobuchar ’ s support — I wouldn ’ t assume that the lion ’ s share of it goes to Biden .
Sanders is super popular among Democratic voters .
And as the front-runner , you ’ d expect him to pick up a bit .
ameliatd : Here ’ s the thing , though .
So many Democratic voters are playing a complicated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re choosing who to vote for , which makes it harder for me to predict where Klobuchar and Buttigieg ’ s supporters will go .
geoffrey.skelley : But for Sanders , of the remaining candidates or those just dropped out , Warren is probably the candidate with the largest share of Sanders second-choice voters .
So my guess would be that Buttigieg and Klobuchar are more likely to disproportionately benefit Biden than Sanders .
sarahf : Are their dropouts a bigger wild card than the South Carolina result being so good for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 49 percent of the vote , which was 8 points more than what we projected . )
geoffrey.skelley : That is tough to say .
Klobuchar was a non-factor most everywhere save Minnesota .
Buttigieg , maybe , you can argue was a bigger deal , but as we ’ ve said , him dropping out doesn ’ t solely help Biden , either .
ameliatd : Yeah , I think it ’ s hard to untangle .
The decisive Biden victory made it seem much more like a two-person race — which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get out .
geoffrey.skelley : But Sanders probably wins Minnesota now , which might not have been the case before Klobuchar ’ s departure .
sarahf : But to Amelia ’ s point … it is kind of a two-person race now , right ?
Or are we perhaps not giving enough consideration to a last-minute Warren comeback ?
He ’ s still here .
But we have no idea how much of Biden ’ s bounce — should it materialize — might come from him .
As my previews of North @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden and Bloomberg ’ s district-level vote share is highly correlated most everywhere .
So if one does a lot better than expected , that probably means the other is underperforming .
ameliatd : I am not holding my breath on Bloomberg .
micah : I honestly think Bloomberg is the biggest wild card .
sarahf : Woah 🔥 .
Tell us more , Micah .
micah : Yeah , so to Geoff ’ s point above … If the polls are right ( even though they ’ re so out of date @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a second ) , then Bloomberg makes it much more difficult for Biden to rack up wins and delegates on Super Tuesday .
But if Bloomberg is doing worse than his polls — which I think a lot of people , including me , assume — then Biden should have a much better night .
ameliatd : Maybe I am being too influenced by my reporting in California , which is not one of Bloomberg ’ s better states right now .
But his campaign just feels like all flash and no substance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ordinary people who were excited about him .
Which makes me suspect that some of his supporters will peel off to Biden , now that Biden is looking stronger .
But it is totally possible that Bloomberg still keeps Biden from getting over the 15 percent threshold in some places , which shouldn ’ t be discounted .
geoffrey.skelley : Yeah , Amelia , I just don ’ t know what ’ s happening in underpolled states like Arkansas , Oklahoma and Tennessee .
We view Bloomberg and Sanders as having about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within striking distance of Biden , who isn ’ t a sure bet to win them either .
sarahf : Yeah , the one thing on the Bloomberg wild card I find hard to buy is that most polls before South Carolina showed him in decline .
So I ’ m not sure how you take what happened in South Carolina and build that as a moment for him .
geoffrey.skelley : Right , and when it comes to media coverage over the past couple days , it ’ s been all “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” and “ Biden ’ s South Carolina win propels him into two-man race with Sanders.
” That sort of thing .
So that can ’ t be good for Bloomberg .
micah : If Bloomberg does pull off a win , you would expect it to be in one of those Southern/Ozark states where : ( i ) he ’ s polling OK , ( ii ) you could probably win with ~22-25 percent of the vote because it ’ s being split relatively evenly among Biden , Sanders and Bloomberg , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be competing less there than in a state like California or Texas , so Bloomberg has the airwaves more to himself .
OK , I have another , more random wild card question , though … ameliatd : In what way , Micah ?
geoffrey.skelley : You mean like lower turnout ?
I don ’ t think we ’ re quite at the hyper-concerned stage of that … yet .
geoffrey.skelley : It ’ s a thing , but until there are many confirmed cases , I ’ d be surprised if we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the states that voted already .
Though , really , only South Carolina and New Hampshire are helpful on that front because they ’ re primaries .
sarahf : On that note , I think we might have exhausted our possible wild cards !
OK , as Micah said earlier there are too many wild cards to keep track of and our polling picture is hazy at best , but what do you see as the most important wild cards going into today ?
geoffrey.skelley : Texas is the big story for me @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders an edge , but it ’ s almost all pre-South Carolina and our model shows it ’ s basically a toss-up race between Sanders and Biden now .
ameliatd : I guess the biggest question mark for me at this point is whether Sanders ’ s much-vaunted campaign organization actually delivers higher turnout for him , especially from people who are more politically disengaged/less likely to vote .
If he can run up his totals among Latino voters , say , that ’ s a big deal in states like California and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know if that will actually happen .
micah : I ’ m torn between “ How well does Bloomberg do ?
” and “ How much of a South Carolina bounce does Biden get ?
” as the biggest wild cards .
Those are related , but we really don ’ t know the answer to either .
And the answers to those questions could make a huge difference in how Super Tuesday plays out — anywhere from “ Sanders amasses a big — maybe insurmountable ?
— delegate lead ” to “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Today is Super Tuesday! The Super Bowl of primary elections — more than one-third of all pledged delegates will have been awarded after everything is said and done.
But it appears we might be in for a bit more chaos and uncertainty than we’d budgeted for after Joe Biden’s big win in South Carolina. Both Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have dropped out of the race, and first Klobuchar and then Buttigieg made it known they will endorse Biden.
Where does this leave us going into things?
ameliatd (Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, senior writer): Before we begin, I feel like we should pause and think of the sad early voters who already cast their ballots for Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
micah (Micah Cohen, managing editor): Early voting isn’t for the faint of heart.
ameliatd: You have to be ready for some 💔.
geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Based on our state polling averages, we’re talking about roughly 10 to 15 percent of voters in most of these Super Tuesday states who previously were with Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
That’s a sizable chunk of the electorate that now moves to Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in some order. My guess would be for ideological reasons that Biden stands to gain the most, especially coming off his South Carolina win, but it’s also true that Warren’s support overlaps a lot with Klobuchar and Buttigieg’s base of well-educated and affluent voters.
ameliatd: In terms of the Super Tuesday delegate math, though, fewer candidates is bad for Sanders — especially in California, which is where I’ve been focusing for the last week. Sanders is leading in California polls and is almost certainly going to get more than 15 percent of the vote statewide and in all 53 congressional districts. When the field was more crowded, it looked like he might be cruising toward a huge delegate haul, as candidates like Klobuchar and Buttigieg would probably split the rest of the votes and prevent others from cracking 15 percent. Without them in the race, Warren, Biden and Bloomberg all stand to take more delegates.
Now, it’s true that Biden/Warren/Bloomberg all have a better shot of getting delegates in California than in other states where they’re flirting with the 15 percent threshold (Warren and Bloomberg in particular), but I have to guess that many would-be Buttigieg/Klobuchar voters will lean toward Biden as a strategic not-Sanders choice. Maybe even some Warren/Bloomberg folks will go that way!
Meanwhile, about 22 percent of the California Democrats have returned their mail-in ballots, but that’s actually low compared to previous primaries. It seems like people were waiting to make their decision, and they might be swayed by the sense that this has become a two-person race. This is purely anecdotal, but I talked to several California voters over the weekend who were going to vote for Warren but switched to Biden after his win in South Carolina. Of course, I don’t know how widespread that sentiment is, but it was pretty striking to hear it from multiple voters at a fairly sparsely populated early voting location.
sarahf: It’s really unclear to me who benefits at this point.
Obviously, there’s a strong argument to be made for Biden. These are candidates dropping out from his “moderate lane,” and in theory, a good chunk of Klobuchar’s support should go to him. But as Nate wrote last night after Buttigieg dropped out, their support will also kinda sorta benefit everyone?
Like Sanders will likely still pick up some of this support from the sheer fact that he is currently the most popular Democrat in the field.
ameliatd: But in the places where Sanders is already comfortably clearing 15 percent, having a few new supporters doesn’t benefit him as much.
It’s all about the delegates!
sarahf: That’s a good point, Amelia. There also seems to be some pretty strong evidence that “the party is deciding,” even if it’s at the last possible minute. (In case you missed it, former Sen. Harry Reid also endorsed Biden on Monday.)
geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, I’ve been tracking the rate at which Democratic officeholders have endorsed this year, and it’s been at a slightly slower rate than Republicans in 2016. So the party really wasn’t deciding.
But we’ve now seen a number of congressional endorsements for Biden pop up here in the scramble before Super Tuesday, so that does suggest there’s a rally-around-Biden effect happening as the anti-Sanders standard bearer.
micah: If they all flock to Biden en masse, that would also be one of the more effective ways to influence the primary — rather than endorsing him in drips. At least, that would be my guess.
ameliatd: The fact that it’s happening all at once does make the endorsements feel much more overwhelming and decisive, which could have a bigger impact on voters than a slow dribble of endorsements they may not even hear about.
sarahf: These last-minute endorsements definitely have a lot of upswing for Biden, but couldn’t it also maybe motivate some of Sanders’s base who aren’t your typical primary voters?
ameliatd: I am really, really curious to see if Sanders’s big investment in ground game/voter turnout pays off. He’s got an extremely impressive operation in California.
But the less-frequent voters he’s targeting actually have to show up. On the other hand, another thing I am wondering about: How much will Biden’s lack of a real campaign infrastructure/ground game hurt him on Super Tuesday? He has basically no presence in California and a lot of other states, too.
geoffrey.skelley: Eh, there’s not much evidence that Sanders is bringing out atypical primary voters. So far Sanders has succeeded by broadening his appeal — especially among nonwhite voters — not by expanding his base.
So I guess we’ll see if that changes.
But it is possible, as Amelia says, that Biden won’t be in as good a position to capitalize on his big moment coming out of South Carolina because of resource shortages. He doesn’t have much of an on-the-ground footprint.
ameliatd: I’d argue, though, Geoffrey, that we haven’t really seen a test of Sanders’s ground game in a big, diverse state where he’s invested a lot of resources (like California!). It could still be a flop — but I think it’s too early to write off his turnout efforts.
sarahf: Yeah, Geoffrey, you’re not wrong that so far Sanders’s turnout bet hasn’t really yielded any results, but I could see all of this firing up his base.
ameliatd: Right, especially if they feel like the Democratic establishment is closing ranks to keep Sanders out.
micah: They already feel that way!
ameliatd: I think this could seem like all of their fears realized though!
geoffrey.skelley: Well, it would certainly confirm what they already believe.
micah: Though, there’s nothing really shady about what the party is doing. It’s how our democracy works. And I think we’re very close to being able to say that “the party” has decided — whether voters care is another story.
geoffrey.skelley: Any rallying against Sanders is shady, Micah. Ipso facto. At least according to my Twitter timeline.
sarahf: It’s not shady, but I think it can be spun effectively if you’re Sanders.
ameliatd: To be fair, I’m not sure how many Sanders supporters are on the sidelines in California. Sanders fans here are so excited about his impending win. But this might be the moment that they try to convince, say, their Warren-supporting friends that the progressive candidates are under attack, and it’s time to throw their weight behind Sanders because he could actually win.
sarahf: That’s a good point, Amelia — I wonder if instead of Warren benefitting much from Klobuchar and Buttigieg dropping out, it instead hurts her because of this idea that there is now only really two choices
And so if you’re progressive, you better vote Sanders.
micah: That seems very plausible to me.
Lots of “Bernie vs. Biden” headlines.
geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, excellent point. It does seem as if Warren could benefit quite a bit from Buttigieg and Klobuchar departing in at least some of these Super Tuesday states. Their vote shares in our model are pretty highly correlated from district to district. But they also correlate quite a bit with Sanders’s in a place like Texas.
sarahf: How confident should we feel in the polling picture?
micah: Not at all confident!
geoffrey.skelley: We’ve barely got any post-South Carolina polls, and no survey data post-Buttigieg dropout or post-Klobuchar dropout. So the race is in flux. The one national survey we have that is entirely post-South Carolina is from Morning Consult, and it found Biden surging back to within 3 points of Sanders, a marked shift from his 13-point deficit before South Carolina.
sarahf: Well, so I think we can be somewhat confident in the BIG toplines. This is from Nathaniel Rakich’s election update on Sunday, which factored in the South Carolina results and some new polls.
Biden now leads in most southern Super Tuesday states The percent chance each Democratic presidential candidate has of winning each contest on Super Tuesday, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 11:10 a.m. Eastern on March 1 Contest Biden Bloomberg Buttigieg Klobuchar Sanders Warren Calif. 7% 0% 0% 0% 91% 1% Texas 48 3 0 0 49 0 N.C. 77 5 0 0 18 0 Va. 48 10 0 0 41 0 Mass. 4 2 2 0 63 30 Minn. 2 0 0 56 40 2 Colo. 6 2 1 0 85 6 Tenn. 61 10 1 0 26 2 Ala. 79 9 0 0 11 0 Okla. 45 27 1 0 25 1 Ark. 39 24 6 0 30 1 Utah 0 4 3 0 87 6 Maine 11 9 6 0 67 6 Vt. 0 0 0 0 99 0 A.S. 32 20 4 2 35 8
And as you can see, it’s really only a two-person race now.
Now some of those margins may be in debate. Is Texas really that close? Does Sanders really have that wide of a margin in California? 🤷♀
But I don’t think we’re flying entirely blind, although obviously, quite impaired.
micah: So, there are just way too many wild cards to be at all sure the current polling picture is accurate …
As we’ve discussed, Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out — where do their voters go? How do voters react to Biden’s South Carolina win? Michael Bloomberg?
We can make educated guesses about where Buttigieg and Klobuchar’s supporters will go, and maybe that Morning Consult poll is accurate, but there’s just so much uncertainty. In addition, as Geoffrey said, we have only a little bit of data on how where Bloomberg stands in the wake of his first two debates and Biden’s South Carolina win.
ameliatd: I’ll be really curious to see what happens in Klobuchar’s home state of Minnesota.
geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, I was wondering about the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
sarahf: There are a lot of wild cards — but I’m still not sure how much the topline has changed. Neither Buttigieg or Klobuchar had a real path to the nomination, and I’m not sure them dropping out now does enough to put Biden over the edge.
micah: They didn’t have a path to the nomination but they had a meaningful share of the vote!
sarahf: I’ll give you some on Buttigieg, Micah, but outside of Minnesota, I strongly disagree with you on Klobuchar.
micah: Buttigieg had about 10 percent in our national polling average. Klobuchar had 5 percent.
So that’s 15 points available to someone.
Or to multiple people.
sarahf: But they were both really struggling to crack 15 percent statewide, not to mention in a number of districts.
micah: But how many states on Tuesday will be decided by less than 15 points?
geoffrey.skelley: If the goal of many Democrats is to halt Sanders, it might have made more strategic sense for Klobuchar to stay in through Super Tuesday because she might have won her home state or come in a close second to Sanders there. She’d certainly have done better than Biden.
However, it’s possible Biden now has a better shot to break 15 percent there and win his own delegates. Then again, she probably didn’t want to lose her home state, so maybe the Biden campaign had little say in the timing. The Klobuchar campaign would deny that — they revealed that their last internal poll had Klobuchar up quite a bit over Sanders, but internals usually show favorable numbers, so a few grains of salt are needed. In our forecast, Sanders is now a favorite to win Minnesota with a 2 in 3 shot. That’s not out of range of someone else winning, but before Klobuchar dropped out, she and Sanders were running neck and neck. Klobuchar’s exit could help Sanders add another win to his Super Tuesday tally.
ameliatd: The margins are also important! In a state like California with hundreds of delegates, it makes a big difference if Biden can claw more delegates away from Sanders. And he’s more likely to do that with Buttigieg and Klobuchar out of the race. Or maybe she just wanted to upstage Buttigieg by endorsing Biden first! What will we do now that their cutthroat Midwestern energy is out of the race?
Also, a couple striking demographic things to note, courtesy of these dropouts — there are now only two women left in the race going into Super Tuesday. And the top four candidates (sorry, Gabbard) are 70 and older.
micah: I mean, again, apologies to Gabbard, but it’s really just Warren left.
sarahf: So here’s something to chew on about our assumption that Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropping out mainly helps Biden.
Both Klobuchar and Buttigieg were doing well among white, college-educated voters — which is not Biden’s strong suit — if anything maybe Warren will stand to benefit a little here?
micah: Either Warren or Sanders could pick up a lot of Buttigieg and Klobuchar’s support — I wouldn’t assume that the lion’s share of it goes to Biden.
Sanders is super popular among Democratic voters. And as the front-runner, you’d expect him to pick up a bit.
ameliatd: Here’s the thing, though. So many Democratic voters are playing a complicated strategy game in their heads when they’re choosing who to vote for, which makes it harder for me to predict where Klobuchar and Buttigieg’s supporters will go.
geoffrey.skelley: But for Sanders, of the remaining candidates or those just dropped out, Warren is probably the candidate with the largest share of Sanders second-choice voters. So my guess would be that Buttigieg and Klobuchar are more likely to disproportionately benefit Biden than Sanders.
sarahf: Are their dropouts a bigger wild card than the South Carolina result being so good for Biden? (Remember, Biden won 49 percent of the vote, which was 8 points more than what we projected.)
geoffrey.skelley: That is tough to say. Klobuchar was a non-factor most everywhere save Minnesota.
Buttigieg, maybe, you can argue was a bigger deal, but as we’ve said, him dropping out doesn’t solely help Biden, either.
ameliatd: Yeah, I think it’s hard to untangle. The decisive Biden victory made it seem much more like a two-person race — which upped the pressure on the other candidates to get out.
geoffrey.skelley: But Sanders probably wins Minnesota now, which might not have been the case before Klobuchar’s departure.
sarahf: But to Amelia’s point … it is kind of a two-person race now, right? Or are we perhaps not giving enough consideration to a last-minute Warren comeback?
geoffrey.skelley: Or Bloomberg!
He’s still here. But we have no idea how much of Biden’s bounce — should it materialize — might come from him. As my previews of North Carolina, Virginia and Texas showed, Biden and Bloomberg’s district-level vote share is highly correlated most everywhere.
So if one does a lot better than expected, that probably means the other is underperforming.
ameliatd: I am not holding my breath on Bloomberg.
micah: I honestly think Bloomberg is the biggest wild card.
sarahf: Woah 🔥. Tell us more, Micah.
micah: Yeah, so to Geoff’s point above … If the polls are right (even though they’re so out of date, let’s just pretend for a second), then Bloomberg makes it much more difficult for Biden to rack up wins and delegates on Super Tuesday.
But if Bloomberg is doing worse than his polls — which I think a lot of people, including me, assume — then Biden should have a much better night.
ameliatd: Maybe I am being too influenced by my reporting in California, which is not one of Bloomberg’s better states right now. But his campaign just feels like all flash and no substance. It was genuinely hard to find ordinary people who were excited about him. Which makes me suspect that some of his supporters will peel off to Biden, now that Biden is looking stronger.
But it is totally possible that Bloomberg still keeps Biden from getting over the 15 percent threshold in some places, which shouldn’t be discounted.
geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, Amelia, I just don’t know what’s happening in underpolled states like Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee. We view Bloomberg and Sanders as having about the same chance in those states and all within striking distance of Biden, who isn’t a sure bet to win them either.
sarahf: Yeah, the one thing on the Bloomberg wild card I find hard to buy is that most polls before South Carolina showed him in decline. So I’m not sure how you take what happened in South Carolina and build that as a moment for him.
geoffrey.skelley: Right, and when it comes to media coverage over the past couple days, it’s been all “Biden is trying to rally anti-Sanders Democrats” and “Biden’s South Carolina win propels him into two-man race with Sanders.” That sort of thing. So that can’t be good for Bloomberg.
micah: If Bloomberg does pull off a win, you would expect it to be in one of those Southern/Ozark states where: (i) he’s polling OK, (ii) you could probably win with ~22-25 percent of the vote because it’s being split relatively evenly among Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg, and (iii) candidates seem to be competing less there than in a state like California or Texas, so Bloomberg has the airwaves more to himself.
OK, I have another, more random wild card question, though …
Could the coronavirus scare affect voting?
ameliatd: In what way, Micah?
micah: IDK!
CORONAVIRUS!
geoffrey.skelley: You mean like lower turnout? I don’t think we’re quite at the hyper-concerned stage of that … yet.
ameliatd: Bring hand sanitizer to your polling place!
geoffrey.skelley: It’s a thing, but until there are many confirmed cases, I’d be surprised if we saw a noticeable downturn in turnout versus the states that voted already.
Though, really, only South Carolina and New Hampshire are helpful on that front because they’re primaries.
sarahf: On that note, I think we might have exhausted our possible wild cards! OK, as Micah said earlier there are too many wild cards to keep track of and our polling picture is hazy at best, but what do you see as the most important wild cards going into today?
geoffrey.skelley: Texas is the big story for me. The most recent polling there gives Sanders an edge, but it’s almost all pre-South Carolina and our model shows it’s basically a toss-up race between Sanders and Biden now.
ameliatd: I guess the biggest question mark for me at this point is whether Sanders’s much-vaunted campaign organization actually delivers higher turnout for him, especially from people who are more politically disengaged/less likely to vote. If he can run up his totals among Latino voters, say, that’s a big deal in states like California and Texas. But we don’t know if that will actually happen.
micah: I’m torn between “How well does Bloomberg do?” and “How much of a South Carolina bounce does Biden get?” as the biggest wild cards. Those are related, but we really don’t know the answer to either.
And the answers to those questions could make a huge difference in how Super Tuesday plays out — anywhere from “Sanders amasses a big — maybe insurmountable? — delegate lead” to “Biden and Sanders are neck-and-neck.”


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-03--Confidence Interval: The Media Will Underrate Bernie Sanders On Super Tuesday

Here ’ s another installment in our new video series , Confidence Interval .
First , we ’ ll present @ @ @ @ @ ” or hypothesis we ’ ve heard floating around regarding the 2020 presidential election .
@ @ @ @ @ some analysis supporting why that take could be accurate .
Finally , we ’ ll @ @ @ @ @ believe in this take .
Is this an idea we would die on a hill @ @ @ @ @ something we don ’ t believe in at all ?
This time , elections analyst @ @ @ @ @ suspicion that the media will underrate Sen. Bernie Sanders ’ s performance on Super Tuesday @

Here’s another installment in our new video series Confidence Interval. First, we’ll present you with a “take” or hypothesis we’ve heard floating around regarding the 2020 presidential election. Then we’ll provide some analysis supporting why that take could be accurate.
Finally, we’ll tell you how much we believe in this take. Is this an idea we’d fight to the death for? Or is it something we don’t believe in at all?
This time, elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich has a sneaking suspicion that the media will underrate Sen. Bernie Sanders’s performance on Super Tuesday.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-03--Super Tuesday: Live Updates And Results

Super Tuesday: Live Updates And Results

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fivethirtyeight--2020-03-03--Five Scenarios For How Super Tuesday Could Go

Earlier today , my colleague Nathaniel Rakich and I wrote about the final FiveThirtyEight forecast before Super Tuesday .
There are basically two big themes there .
First , yes , the model has shifted strongly to former Vice President Joe Biden in recent days because of his big win in South Carolina and a major bounce for him in polls of Super Tuesday states .
But second , there ’ s a lot of uncertainty , both in terms of what happens tonight and for the rest of the race .
The most likely outcome is still that there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ June 6 , once all states and territories have finished voting .
I ’ m going to focus more on the uncertainty in this story .
Let ’ s stress test the model and see how its Super Tuesday projections might change if various candidates perform better or worse than our projections expect .
( If you want to do your own version of this , you can !
Please see our Super Tuesday scenarios interactive here . )
First , let ’ s establish a baseline case .
Here ’ s how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ DNC ’ s rules if our forecast is exactly right in every state and Congressional district .
If this happens ( it will not ) , I ’ m going to buy myself a really nice steak dinner tomorrow night .
( Also , it will probably mean we ’ re living in a simulation , so this is not necessarily something to root for . )
In the base case , we have Biden finishing just slightly ahead of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders , with 461 delegates ( 34 percent of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s 445 ( 33 percent ) .
But our baseline projections also have Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren picking up decent numbers of delegates .
Heck , they even have Amy Klobuchar staying just above 15 percent of the vote in Minnesota and thereby getting delegates there , even though she dropped out .
So basically , the base case for tonight is that one-third of the delegates go to Biden , one-third go to Sanders and one-third go to “ other , ” which is why we could be headed to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) outcome .
Let ’ s say , though , that Biden has a really good night — even better than our forecast shows .
That ’ s certainly possible ; as aggressive as the model has been in trying to account for his bounce , he keeps moving up in the model every time we feed it new polling data .
Even the latest , freshest polls may not sufficiently account for Pete Buttigeg and Klobuchar dropping out and endorsing Biden , which is one way he could beat his forecast , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ let ’ s add 6 percentage points to our Biden forecast in every state and district .
We ’ ll take those 6 points evenly from the other major candidates — so Biden gets 2 points each from Sanders , Warren and Bloomberg .
In this case , Biden would finish 169 delegates ahead of Sanders .
That ’ s hardly an insurmountable lead in a race with 3,979 pledged delegates total .
But , the narrative of the evening would be quite poor for Sanders , perhaps leading to further Biden gains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because , in this scenario , Sanders ’ s wins would be limited to Maine and Vermont , with Biden pulling off upsets in Massachusetts , Utah , Colorado and — most importantly , and only by the slimmest of margins — California .
Again , this is a dream scenario for Biden and very much not the base case .
But the point is that Biden is surging so much that we can ’ t rule outcomes like this out .
Even in states like California , Sanders ’ s lead has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the best we can determine based on the few polls available .
As a slight silver lining for Sanders , note that he actually wins exactly as many delegates here ( 445 ) as in the base case .
That ’ s because Biden ’ s gains would take away votes from Bloomberg and Warren , knocking them below the 15 percent threshold in many districts , leaving Biden and Sanders more delegates to divvy up for themselves .
Still , I ’ m sure Sanders would prefer to avoid this outcome @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well for Sanders instead ?
Here ’ s what the delegates look like if Sanders beats our forecast by 6 points across the board , taken equally from Biden , Bloomberg and Warren .
This scenario has Sanders beating Biden by 118 delegates tonight .
A few days ago , this might have seemed like an above-average outcome for Biden — one that left Sanders favored but Biden still in the running .
Now , it might seem like a big moment for Sanders instead .
Biden ’ s wins would be limited @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Oklahoma and Arkasnas — not nothing , but he ’ d yet to have proven he could win anywhere outside of the South .
Meanwhile , Sanders would penetrate into Biden ’ s territory by winning two southern states , Texas and Tennessee .
Next up is a scenario that intuitively seems plausible to me .
Let ’ s imagine voters take the hint that it ’ s a two-candidate race and gravitate further toward both Biden and Sanders at the expense of the rest of the field .
If you add @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s numbers in every district and subtract 3 points from both Bloomberg and Warren , here ’ s what you get : Note that the overall margin between Biden and Sanders has barely changed — but their proportions have improved relative to the field .
Biden gets 44 percent of Super Tuesday delegates instead of 34 percent as in Scenario 1 , and Sanders gets 43 percent instead of 33 percent .
This type of outcome would greatly reduce — though not entirely eliminate — the chance of “ no majority ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undoubtedly put a lot of pressure on Bloomberg and Warren to exit the race .
Finally , suppose just the opposite happens and Warren and Bloomberg each beat their projections .
I don ’ t necessarily see this happening but who knows !
Maybe Warren ’ s voters are tired of their candidate being discounted and dig in their heels .
And maybe Bloomberg ’ s expensive Super Tuesday ground game has a bigger effect than polls are showing .
In accounting for uncertainty in a forecast , it ’ s important to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrong in all directions — not just the directions you intuitively expect .
This would take us far down the path toward a contested convention .
Biden and Sanders would essentially tie on the evening with 389 and 388 delegates respectively , but Bloomberg ( 298 delegates ) and Warren ( 257 delegates ) wouldn ’ t be that far behind .
( Note that , because Warren is in danger of failing to meet the 15 percent threshold in more places than Bloomberg is , slightly overperforming her forecasts would be a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . )
Nobody would have more than 30 percent of the total delegates .
The tricky part for Warren and Bloomberg is that , although it isn ’ t that hard for them to accumulate quite a few delegates tonight , winning states is another story .
Even in this optimistic scenario , Warren ’ s only win would come in Massachusetts , her home state .
And the best Bloomberg would do would be to tie for the pledged delegates win in a rather odd pairing of states , Arkansas and Utah @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such an outcome would be interpreted by voters , the media and the candidates .
But it would mean that we were probably in store for a very long and bumpy race .

Earlier today, my colleague Nathaniel Rakich and I wrote about the final FiveThirtyEight forecast before Super Tuesday. There are basically two big themes there. First, yes, the model has shifted strongly to former Vice President Joe Biden in recent days because of his big win in South Carolina and a major bounce for him in polls of Super Tuesday states. But second, there’s a lot of uncertainty, both in terms of what happens tonight and for the rest of the race. The most likely outcome is still that there’s no pledged delegate majority on June 6, once all states and territories have finished voting.
I’m going to focus more on the uncertainty in this story. Let’s stress test the model and see how its Super Tuesday projections might change if various candidates perform better or worse than our projections expect. (If you want to do your own version of this, you can! Please see our Super Tuesday scenarios interactive here.)
Scenario 1: The model is all-knowing
First, let’s establish a baseline case. Here’s how delegates would be allocated tonight under the DNC’s rules if our forecast is exactly right in every state and Congressional district. If this happens (it will not), I’m going to buy myself a really nice steak dinner tomorrow night. (Also, it will probably mean we’re living in a simulation, so this is not necessarily something to root for.)
Scenario 1: If Our Projections Are *Exactly* Right Super Tuesday delegate projections based on final FiveThirtyEight forecast State Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren Klobuchar California 120 155 77 63 0 Texas 83 81 55 9 0 North Carolina 52 32 24 2 0 Virginia 52 27 17 3 0 Massachusetts 21 28 17 25 0 Minnesota 19 20 9 13 14 Colorado 17 22 14 14 0 Tennessee 26 19 14 5 0 Alabama 27 13 11 1 0 Oklahoma 13 9 8 7 0 Arkansas 14 7 9 1 0 Utah 9 9 6 5 0 Maine 6 8 6 4 0 Vermont 0 13 0 3 0 American Samoa 2 2 2 0 0 Total 461 445 269 155 14
In the base case, we have Biden finishing just slightly ahead of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, with 461 delegates (34 percent of the total possible tonight) to Bernie’s 445 (33 percent). But our baseline projections also have Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren picking up decent numbers of delegates. Heck, they even have Amy Klobuchar staying just above 15 percent of the vote in Minnesota and thereby getting delegates there, even though she dropped out. So basically, the base case for tonight is that one-third of the delegates go to Biden, one-third go to Sanders and one-third go to “other,” which is why we could be headed to a no majority (and possibly contested convention) outcome.
Scenario 2: Biden overperforms
Let’s say, though, that Biden has a really good night — even better than our forecast shows. That’s certainly possible; as aggressive as the model has been in trying to account for his bounce, he keeps moving up in the model every time we feed it new polling data. Even the latest, freshest polls may not sufficiently account for Pete Buttigeg and Klobuchar dropping out and endorsing Biden, which is one way he could beat his forecast, for instance.
To do this, let’s add 6 percentage points to our Biden forecast in every state and district. We’ll take those 6 points evenly from the other major candidates — so Biden gets 2 points each from Sanders, Warren and Bloomberg.
Scenario 2: A Big Night For Biden Super Tuesday delegate projections based on final FiveThirtyEight forecast, adding 6 points to Biden while subtracting 2 from Sanders, Bloomberg and Warren State Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren Klobuchar California 178 159 61 17 0 Texas 103 76 45 4 0 North Carolina 62 31 17 0 0 Virginia 61 24 13 1 0 Massachusetts 30 27 14 20 0 Minnesota 30 26 2 1 16 Colorado 23 21 13 10 0 Tennessee 32 18 14 0 0 Alabama 29 12 11 0 0 Oklahoma 23 12 2 0 0 Arkansas 15 7 9 0 0 Utah 11 9 8 1 0 Maine 9 10 5 0 0 Vermont 5 11 0 0 0 American Samoa 3 2 1 0 0 Total 614 445 215 54 16
In this case, Biden would finish 169 delegates ahead of Sanders. That’s hardly an insurmountable lead in a race with 3,979 pledged delegates total. But, the narrative of the evening would be quite poor for Sanders, perhaps leading to further Biden gains in subsequent states. That’s because, in this scenario, Sanders’s wins would be limited to Maine and Vermont, with Biden pulling off upsets in Massachusetts, Utah, Colorado and — most importantly, and only by the slimmest of margins — California.
Again, this is a dream scenario for Biden and very much not the base case. But the point is that Biden is surging so much that we can’t rule outcomes like this out. Even in states like California, Sanders’s lead has slipped into the high single digits, to the best we can determine based on the few polls available.
As a slight silver lining for Sanders, note that he actually wins exactly as many delegates here (445) as in the base case. That’s because Biden’s gains would take away votes from Bloomberg and Warren, knocking them below the 15 percent threshold in many districts, leaving Biden and Sanders more delegates to divvy up for themselves. Still, I’m sure Sanders would prefer to avoid this outcome.
Scenario 3: Sanders overperforms
But what if things go really well for Sanders instead? Here’s what the delegates look like if Sanders beats our forecast by 6 points across the board, taken equally from Biden, Bloomberg and Warren.
Scenario 3: Sanders Beats His Polls And Holds His Ground Super Tuesday delegate projections based on final FiveThirtyEight forecast, adding 6 points to Sanders while subtracting 2 from Biden, Bloomberg and Warren State Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren Klobuchar California 136 203 60 16 0 Texas 78 101 45 4 0 North Carolina 51 42 17 0 0 Virginia 49 36 13 1 0 Massachusetts 21 31 14 25 0 Minnesota 22 35 2 1 15 Colorado 16 25 13 13 0 Tennessee 22 28 14 0 0 Alabama 24 17 11 0 0 Oklahoma 18 17 2 0 0 Arkansas 13 10 8 0 0 Utah 9 13 6 1 0 Maine 8 10 6 0 0 Vermont 0 16 0 0 0 American Samoa 2 3 1 0 0 Total 469 587 212 61 15
This scenario has Sanders beating Biden by 118 delegates tonight. A few days ago, this might have seemed like an above-average outcome for Biden — one that left Sanders favored but Biden still in the running.
Now, it might seem like a big moment for Sanders instead. Biden’s wins would be limited to North Carolina, Virginia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Arkasnas — not nothing, but he’d yet to have proven he could win anywhere outside of the South. Meanwhile, Sanders would penetrate into Biden’s territory by winning two southern states, Texas and Tennessee.
Scenario 4: Voters decide it’s Biden vs. Sanders
Next up is a scenario that intuitively seems plausible to me. Let’s imagine voters take the hint that it’s a two-candidate race and gravitate further toward both Biden and Sanders at the expense of the rest of the field. If you add 3 points to both Biden and Sanders’s numbers in every district and subtract 3 points from both Bloomberg and Warren, here’s what you get:
Scenario 4: Biden and Sanders Pull Away From The Pack Super Tuesday delegate projections based on final FiveThirtyEight forecast, adding 3 points to Biden and Sanders while subtracting 3 from Bloomberg and Warren State Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren Klobuchar California 173 212 19 11 0 Texas 95 94 39 0 0 North Carolina 64 42 4 0 0 Virginia 60 34 4 1 0 Massachusetts 29 30 12 20 0 Minnesota 27 32 0 0 16 Colorado 23 30 11 3 0 Tennessee 28 22 14 0 0 Alabama 28 14 10 0 0 Oklahoma 22 15 0 0 0 Arkansas 14 10 7 0 0 Utah 9 14 6 0 0 Maine 9 10 5 0 0 Vermont 3 13 0 0 0 American Samoa 2 2 2 0 0 Total 586 574 133 35 16
Note that the overall margin between Biden and Sanders has barely changed — but their proportions have improved relative to the field. Biden gets 44 percent of Super Tuesday delegates instead of 34 percent as in Scenario 1, and Sanders gets 43 percent instead of 33 percent. This type of outcome would greatly reduce — though not entirely eliminate — the chance of “no majority” or contested convention. It would also undoubtedly put a lot of pressure on Bloomberg and Warren to exit the race.
Scenario 5: Bloomberg and Warren overperform
Finally, suppose just the opposite happens and Warren and Bloomberg each beat their projections. I don’t necessarily see this happening but who knows! Maybe Warren’s voters are tired of their candidate being discounted and dig in their heels. And maybe Bloomberg’s expensive Super Tuesday ground game has a bigger effect than polls are showing. In accounting for uncertainty in a forecast, it’s important to be prepared for the forecast to be wrong in all directions — not just the directions you intuitively expect.
Scenario 5: ChAoS! Super Tuesday delegate projections based on final FiveThirtyEight forecast, adding 3 points to Bloomberg and Warren while subtracting 3 from Biden and Sanders State Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren Klobuchar California 102 138 87 88 0 Texas 70 68 52 38 0 North Carolina 44 24 26 16 0 Virginia 43 21 21 14 0 Massachusetts 18 26 20 27 0 Minnesota 15 18 15 15 12 Colorado 14 22 17 14 0 Tennessee 22 16 15 11 0 Alabama 25 9 12 6 0 Oklahoma 13 9 8 7 0 Arkansas 9 7 9 6 0 Utah 6 9 9 5 0 Maine 6 8 6 4 0 Vermont 0 11 0 5 0 American Samoa 2 2 1 1 0 Total 389 388 298 257 12
This would take us far down the path toward a contested convention. Biden and Sanders would essentially tie on the evening with 389 and 388 delegates respectively, but Bloomberg (298 delegates) and Warren (257 delegates) wouldn’t be that far behind. (Note that, because Warren is in danger of failing to meet the 15 percent threshold in more places than Bloomberg is, slightly overperforming her forecasts would be a bigger deal for her than for him.) Nobody would have more than 30 percent of the total delegates.
The tricky part for Warren and Bloomberg is that, although it isn’t that hard for them to accumulate quite a few delegates tonight, winning states is another story. Even in this optimistic scenario, Warren’s only win would come in Massachusetts, her home state. And the best Bloomberg would do would be to tie for the pledged delegates win in a rather odd pairing of states, Arkansas and Utah. I honestly have no idea how such an outcome would be interpreted by voters, the media and the candidates. But it would mean that we were probably in store for a very long and bumpy race.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-03--Super Tuesday Preview: Can Anyone Stop Biden In Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee?

Today ’ s Super Tuesday , and while there will be a lot of focus on the really big states like California and Texas , every contest will matter if the race turns into a prolonged battle for delegates all the way to the Democratic National Convention in July — as seems likely .
With that in mind , we ’ re going to take a quick tour through four Super Tuesday states in the South : Alabama , Arkansas , Oklahoma and Tennessee .
In each of these contests , former Vice President Joe Biden is favored to win @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though his edge varies quite a bit from state to state .
So let ’ s run through what we know about each , going from largest to smallest by delegate count .
( One important warning before we start : We have limited polling for these states , which means we don ’ t have a lot to go on outside of what the model figures based on data from demographically and geographically similar states .
We also have little polling overall conducted after former South Bend , Indiana , Mayor Pete @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race and endorsed Biden .
In other words , we don ’ t have a great picture of what to expect today — in any state , but especially in these contests ; the model is therefore accounting for a lot of uncertainty , and you should too . )
Up first is Tennessee , where our forecast shows Biden with about a 2 in 3 ( 68 percent ) chance of finishing first .
Sanders has a 1 in 4 ( 25 percent ) shot of carrying the state , and Bloomberg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5 percent ) chance .
Warren , too , has a small chance of winning ( 1 percent ) .
These candidates ’ statewide performances will decide 22 of Tennessee ’ s 64 pledged delegates .
Our model forecasts Biden to win 34 percent of the overall vote , on average , while Sanders and Bloomberg are not far behind at 27 percent and 20 percent , respectively .
Lastly among the last four competitive candidates left in the race , Warren ’ s average forecasted share is 14 percent .
The Volunteer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be determined by the vote in each of Tennessee ’ s nine congressional districts .
Who reaches the 15 percent mark in those seats and statewide will determine who wins delegates in Tennessee , as is true everywhere else .
As things stand , our forecast suggests that Biden and Sanders are most likely to win at least one district , though Bloomberg is also in a good position to finish above the 15 percent mark across the state .
Warren is right around 15 percent in most districts , so how much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ determine whether she can get a piece of the delegate pie .
( One other thing : We have no idea what effect the tornado strikes early this morning might have on the vote in some parts of Tennessee , particularly near Nashville , except that turnout might be lower in the affected areas . )
Most of the districts have pretty similar outcomes , except for the 9th Congressional District centered on Memphis .
It ’ s a strongly Democratic , majority-black district , so Biden ’ s strength with African American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — gives him a real boost there .
Biden also has an edge in the only other Democratic-leaning seat in the state , the 5th Congressional District located around Nashville , which has a larger nonwhite voter base than any Tennessee district save the 9th .
Bloomberg and Biden perform better or worse in most of the same districts , as they both tend to be stronger in areas with more voters of color and less wealth .
On the flip side , Sanders runs nearest to Biden in the 1st , 2nd @ @ @ @ @ @ @ four of the six districts in Tennessee that are more than 80 percent white .
He ’ s very slightly ahead of Biden in the 1st and 2nd , which represent eastern Tennessee along the North Carolina border .
Just as Biden and Bloomberg ’ s projected vote shares at the district level are similarly stronger or weaker , the same is true of Sanders and Warren .
Next up on our tour is Alabama , where the model gives Biden his strongest chance of victory among this quartet of states .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 91 percent ) shot at winning the Cotton State , while Sanders and Bloomberg have a 1 in 20 ( 5 percent ) and 1 in 30 ( 3 percent ) chance , respectively .
The candidates ’ statewide vote shares will allocate 18 of Alabama ’ s 52 pledged delegates to the national convention , and it looks like Biden might be in a position to win quite a few of them .
His average forecasted vote share is 44 percent statewide , well ahead of 21 percent for Sanders , 19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Warren .
Alabama ’ s remaining 34 pledged delegates are apportioned by the candidate performances in each of the state ’ s seven congressional districts .
The model shows Biden is likely to carry every district in the state , while Bloomberg and Sanders are in a close fight for second in many of the seats .
Warren looks a bit off the pace in Alabama , but she could hit 15 percent in a couple places if she overperforms her polling across the board .
In particular , the 6th Congressional District @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a clear edge across all districts in Alabama , but most notably in the 7th Congressional District , a heavily Democratic , majority-black seat that has far and away the most delegates of any Alabama district ( eight ) .
As in other Southern states , Biden ’ s support tends to be highly correlated with the black share of the population in each district , as is Bloomberg ’ s .
And here , too , Bloomberg ’ s projected vote and Biden ’ s projected vote correspond strongly to one another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s and Warren ’ s vote shares , with their strongest districts being the 4th , 5th and 6th Congressional districts from the northern tip of the state down into central Alabama .
Each of those districts is whiter than the state as a whole ( at least 70 percent ) , and in two of them ( the 5th and 6th ) , at least 30 percent of the adult population has a college degree .
Shifting west to the meeting point between the South and the Great Plains , we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is more competitive than Alabama but slightly less so than Tennessee .
Here too Biden has the best chance of winning with about a 4 in 5 ( 78 percent ) shot , but our forecast also gives Sanders about a 1 in 6 ( 18 percent ) chance .
Although she was born in Oklahoma , Warren only has a 1 in 50 ( 2 percent ) shot of winning the state , the same chance as Bloomberg .
Our model ’ s average forecasted statewide vote shares show Biden out ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ front of Sanders ’ s 25 percent .
Meanwhile , Bloomberg and Warren are both projected to get about 17 percent statewide .
Oklahoma ’ s other 24 pledged delegates will be allocated by the vote shares in each of the Sooner State ’ s five congressional districts .
Based on our forecast , Biden looks likely to win each district while Sanders finishes in second .
But both Bloomberg and Warren are projected to clear the 15 percent threshold in every Oklahoma district , so the Sooner State appears to be the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re looking at here to deliver delegates from every part of the state to all four leading candidates .
And that all four candidates could get a piece of each district speaks to the fact that Oklahoma ’ s five congressional districts are relatively similar demographically speaking .
Moreover , Oklahoma has relatively small shares of black and Hispanic voters — around 10 percent or less for both statewide — and both groups , particularly African American voters , help explain some of the district-level variation in other states .
One other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s sizable number of American Indians — they also make up almost one-tenth of the state ’ s population — though it ’ s unclear if they ’ ll swing toward one candidate in particular .
Our last stop is Arkansas , which the model pegs as the most wide-open race out of the four states we ’ re analyzing here .
Biden has the best chance of victory , with about a 7 in 10 ( 69 percent ) shot of finishing first .
Bloomberg has a 1 in 6 ( 17 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders has about a 1 in 8 ( 12 percent ) shot .
Warren has just a 1 in 100 ( 1 percent ) chance .
Arkansas ’ s projected statewide vote shares are somewhat reminiscent of Alabama ’ s in that Biden leads while Bloomberg and Sanders are in a race for second .
However , Arkansas is less of a sure bet for Biden .
Warren is well back of the pack at 15 percent .
Arkansas ’ s remaining 20 pledged delegates are apportioned by the vote in the Natural @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but only one seat — the 3rd Congressional District — looks pretty close .
Biden has double-digit leads in the other three seats but Bloomberg and Sanders are close behind in the 3rd .
Warren does have a chance of getting to 15 percent across the board .
Biden ’ s bigger leads come in the three districts that are between 15 and 25 percent African American .
But the 3rd Congressional District in northwest Arkansas — home to Wal-Mart — is less than 5 percent black , which helps explain why it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may be no coincidence that the 3rd is also Warren ’ s best seat , as it ’ s also the home of the University of Arkansas ’ s flagship campus in Fayetteville .
Taken together , these states don ’ t have much polling data to work with , but if Biden ’ s strength in South Carolina portends his performance in the South , we could see him racking up delegates here .
But there ’ s also an opportunity for Bloomberg to pick up delegates and become a player in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an outside shot of winning Tennessee and has his best chance of winning some districts there .
If Sanders can win at least one of these states outright , that could help him not only win delegates but also run up the win count across the country on Super Tuesday .
So definitely be prepared for surprises in these contests .

Today’s Super Tuesday, and while there will be a lot of focus on the really big states like California and Texas, every contest will matter if the race turns into a prolonged battle for delegates all the way to the Democratic National Convention in July — as seems likely. With that in mind, we’re going to take a quick tour through four Super Tuesday states in the South: Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee.
In each of these contests, former Vice President Joe Biden is favored to win statewide and in most delegate districts, though his edge varies quite a bit from state to state. So let’s run through what we know about each, going from largest to smallest by delegate count. (One important warning before we start: We have limited polling for these states, which means we don’t have a lot to go on outside of what the model figures based on data from demographically and geographically similar states. We also have little polling overall conducted after former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar exited the race and endorsed Biden. In other words, we don’t have a great picture of what to expect today — in any state, but especially in these contests; the model is therefore accounting for a lot of uncertainty, and you should too.)
Up first is Tennessee, where our forecast shows Biden with about a 2 in 3 (68 percent) chance of finishing first. Sanders has a 1 in 4 (25 percent) shot of carrying the state, and Bloomberg has roughly a 1 in 20 (5 percent) chance. Warren, too, has a small chance of winning (1 percent).
These candidates’ statewide performances will decide 22 of Tennessee’s 64 pledged delegates. Our model forecasts Biden to win 34 percent of the overall vote, on average, while Sanders and Bloomberg are not far behind at 27 percent and 20 percent, respectively. Lastly among the last four competitive candidates left in the race, Warren’s average forecasted share is 14 percent.
The Volunteer State’s other 42 delegates will be determined by the vote in each of Tennessee’s nine congressional districts. Who reaches the 15 percent mark in those seats and statewide will determine who wins delegates in Tennessee, as is true everywhere else. As things stand, our forecast suggests that Biden and Sanders are most likely to win at least one district, though Bloomberg is also in a good position to finish above the 15 percent mark across the state. Warren is right around 15 percent in most districts, so how much she outperforms — or underperforms — will determine whether she can get a piece of the delegate pie. (One other thing: We have no idea what effect the tornado strikes early this morning might have on the vote in some parts of Tennessee, particularly near Nashville, except that turnout might be lower in the affected areas.)
Biden and Sanders lead the Tennessee districts Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Tennessee congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3 District Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren TN-01 28% 30% 21% 16% TN-02 29 30 20 16 TN-03 31 29 20 15 TN-04 31 30 19 15 TN-05 34 27 20 14 TN-06 30 30 20 16 TN-07 31 30 19 16 TN-08 35 27 19 14 TN-09 46 21 19 9 State 34 27 20 14
Most of the districts have pretty similar outcomes, except for the 9th Congressional District centered on Memphis. It’s a strongly Democratic, majority-black district, so Biden’s strength with African American voters — as seen in South Carolina — gives him a real boost there. Biden also has an edge in the only other Democratic-leaning seat in the state, the 5th Congressional District located around Nashville, which has a larger nonwhite voter base than any Tennessee district save the 9th. Bloomberg and Biden perform better or worse in most of the same districts, as they both tend to be stronger in areas with more voters of color and less wealth.
On the flip side, Sanders runs nearest to Biden in the 1st, 2nd, 6th and 7th Congressional districts — four of the six districts in Tennessee that are more than 80 percent white. He’s very slightly ahead of Biden in the 1st and 2nd, which represent eastern Tennessee along the North Carolina border. Just as Biden and Bloomberg’s projected vote shares at the district level are similarly stronger or weaker, the same is true of Sanders and Warren.
Next up on our tour is Alabama, where the model gives Biden his strongest chance of victory among this quartet of states. He has about a 11 in 12 (91 percent) shot at winning the Cotton State, while Sanders and Bloomberg have a 1 in 20 (5 percent) and 1 in 30 (3 percent) chance, respectively.
The candidates’ statewide vote shares will allocate 18 of Alabama’s 52 pledged delegates to the national convention, and it looks like Biden might be in a position to win quite a few of them. His average forecasted vote share is 44 percent statewide, well ahead of 21 percent for Sanders, 19 percent for Bloomberg and 12 percent for Warren.
Alabama’s remaining 34 pledged delegates are apportioned by the candidate performances in each of the state’s seven congressional districts. The model shows Biden is likely to carry every district in the state, while Bloomberg and Sanders are in a close fight for second in many of the seats. Warren looks a bit off the pace in Alabama, but she could hit 15 percent in a couple places if she overperforms her polling across the board. In particular, the 6th Congressional District looks like her strongest.
Biden is likely to win all across Alabama Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Alabama congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3 District Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren AL-01 43% 21% 19% 12% AL-02 45 20 19 12 AL-03 43 22 19 12 AL-04 36 25 20 14 AL-05 39 23 19 14 AL-06 38 24 19 15 AL-07 51 17 18 9 State 44 21 19 12
Biden has a clear edge across all districts in Alabama, but most notably in the 7th Congressional District, a heavily Democratic, majority-black seat that has far and away the most delegates of any Alabama district (eight). As in other Southern states, Biden’s support tends to be highly correlated with the black share of the population in each district, as is Bloomberg’s. And here, too, Bloomberg’s projected vote and Biden’s projected vote correspond strongly to one another. The same is true of Sanders’s and Warren’s vote shares, with their strongest districts being the 4th, 5th and 6th Congressional districts from the northern tip of the state down into central Alabama. Each of those districts is whiter than the state as a whole (at least 70 percent), and in two of them (the 5th and 6th), at least 30 percent of the adult population has a college degree.
Shifting west to the meeting point between the South and the Great Plains, we have Oklahoma, which our forecast suggests is more competitive than Alabama but slightly less so than Tennessee. Here too Biden has the best chance of winning with about a 4 in 5 (78 percent) shot, but our forecast also gives Sanders about a 1 in 6 (18 percent) chance. Although she was born in Oklahoma, Warren only has a 1 in 50 (2 percent) shot of winning the state, the same chance as Bloomberg.
Our model’s average forecasted statewide vote shares show Biden out ahead with 34 percent, 9 points in front of Sanders’s 25 percent. Meanwhile, Bloomberg and Warren are both projected to get about 17 percent statewide.
Oklahoma’s other 24 pledged delegates will be allocated by the vote shares in each of the Sooner State’s five congressional districts. Based on our forecast, Biden looks likely to win each district while Sanders finishes in second. But both Bloomberg and Warren are projected to clear the 15 percent threshold in every Oklahoma district, so the Sooner State appears to be the most likely contest of the four we’re looking at here to deliver delegates from every part of the state to all four leading candidates.
Four candidates could get delegates out of Oklahoma Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Oklahoma congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3 District Biden Sanders Bloomberg Warren OK-01 34% 25% 18% 17% OK-02 35 26 16 17 OK-03 34 26 16 17 OK-04 34 26 17 17 OK-05 35 24 18 16 State 34 25 17 17
And that all four candidates could get a piece of each district speaks to the fact that Oklahoma’s five congressional districts are relatively similar demographically speaking. Moreover, Oklahoma has relatively small shares of black and Hispanic voters — around 10 percent or less for both statewide — and both groups, particularly African American voters, help explain some of the district-level variation in other states. One other demographic group to note is Oklahoma’s sizable number of American Indians — they also make up almost one-tenth of the state’s population — though it’s unclear if they’ll swing toward one candidate in particular.
Our last stop is Arkansas, which the model pegs as the most wide-open race out of the four states we’re analyzing here. Biden has the best chance of victory, with about a 7 in 10 (69 percent) shot of finishing first. Bloomberg has a 1 in 6 (17 percent) chance of winning, while Sanders has about a 1 in 8 (12 percent) shot. Warren has just a 1 in 100 (1 percent) chance.
Arkansas’s projected statewide vote shares are somewhat reminiscent of Alabama’s in that Biden leads while Bloomberg and Sanders are in a race for second. However, Arkansas is less of a sure bet for Biden. Warren is well back of the pack at 15 percent.
Arkansas’s remaining 20 pledged delegates are apportioned by the vote in the Natural State’s four congressional districts, but only one seat — the 3rd Congressional District — looks pretty close. Biden has double-digit leads in the other three seats but Bloomberg and Sanders are close behind in the 3rd. Warren does have a chance of getting to 15 percent across the board.
Biden looks strong in Arkansas Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Arkansas congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3 District Biden Bloomberg Sanders Warren AR-01 37 24 22 14 AR-02 36 25 22 15 AR-03 29 25 25 17 AR-04 37 24 22 14 State 35 25 23 15
Biden’s bigger leads come in the three districts that are between 15 and 25 percent African American. But the 3rd Congressional District in northwest Arkansas — home to Wal-Mart — is less than 5 percent black, which helps explain why it’s the most competitive. It may be no coincidence that the 3rd is also Warren’s best seat, as it’s also the home of the University of Arkansas’s flagship campus in Fayetteville.
Taken together, these states don’t have much polling data to work with, but if Biden’s strength in South Carolina portends his performance in the South, we could see him racking up delegates here. But there’s also an opportunity for Bloomberg to pick up delegates and become a player in the race, too. Sanders has an outside shot of winning Tennessee and has his best chance of winning some districts there. If Sanders can win at least one of these states outright, that could help him not only win delegates but also run up the win count across the country on Super Tuesday. So definitely be prepared for surprises in these contests.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-03--Our Final Forecast For Super Tuesday Shows Biden’s Surge — And Lots Of Uncertainty

Former Vice President Joe Biden has gotten a lot of good news over the past few days .
A huge , almost 30-point win in South Carolina .
A series of impressive endorsements .
Other candidates in the moderate lane — namely , former South Bend , Indiana , Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar , who were among those endorsers — dropping out .
But one thing we haven ’ t had a lot of since South Carolina was hard data .
That changed late last night with a flurry of new polls — we now have at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in every single Super Tuesday state .
So by the time we froze the FiveThirtyEight forecast at 9:30 a.m. on Tuesday , the Super Tuesday picture was a lot clearer — and overall , things look good for Biden .
Biden is now about twice as likely as Sanders to win a plurality of pledged delegates , according to our primary model , which gives him a 65 percent chance of doing so compared with a 34 percent chance for Sanders .
This represents the culmination of a trend that has been underway @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; it started to shift toward Biden once polls showed the potential for him to win big in South Carolina — and it anticipated a polling bounce in the Super Tuesday states if he did win big there .
Still , even after South Carolina , Biden ’ s plurality chances had risen only to 32 percent , compared with 64 percent for Sanders .
That means the polling bounce from the events of the past few days has been bigger than the model anticipated .
To be clear , however , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We ’ ve been talking about delegate pluralities , which obscures the fact that the most likely outcome in the model is still that no one wins a majority of pledged delegates .
And we should note that the lack of a majority does not necessarily imply a contested convention .
For instance , if Biden enters the convention with 46 percent of delegates and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg with 10 percent , they could strike a deal where Bloomberg delegates vote for Biden on the first ballot .
Still , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Bloomberg — and to a slightly lesser extent , Sen. Elizabeth Warren — held up better than you might have expected .
The model has Bloomberg projected to finish with at least 15 percent of the vote in most states , which is the threshold required to receive delegates allocated at the state and district levels — and it has Warren projected to do so in most states outside of the South .
While to our eye , the model ’ s numbers look a little optimistic for Bloomberg , the whole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on objective data .
And that says Bloomberg could still accumulate plenty of delegates , even though he isn ’ t a favorite in any state .
Keep in mind that both Bloomberg and Warren also benefit from Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropping out — it ’ s easier to get 15 percent in a four-way race than a six-way one .
Overall , the model has “ no majority ” happening 61 percent of the time , a Biden majority 31 percent of the time and a Sanders majority 8 percent of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would require a minor miracle .
In delegate terms , Biden is projected to finish about 375 delegates ahead of Sanders in the average simulation — but keep in mind that the average obscures a huge amount of variation .
Still , this provides for a helpful benchmark .
Bloomberg is projected to finish with an average of 555 delegates and Warren with 283 delegates — so their combined delegate tally projects to be more than twice as large as the projected margin separating Biden and Sanders .
That ’ s why the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ majority ” outcomes .
If Bloomberg , Warren and other candidates are keeping 15 or 20 percent of the overall pledged delegate haul for themselves , then either Sanders or Biden needs to beat the other one by quite a bit to get an overall majority .
Below are our final forecasts for the 15 states and territories that will finish voting today .
As you can see , Biden is favored to win in the seven Southern states , although he is anywhere from a very slight front-runner in Texas to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is favored in the seven remaining states across the Northeast , Midwest and West ; his lead is most tenuous in Massachusetts and safest in Vermont .
The model isn ’ t really sure what ’ s going to happen in American Samoa , where it gives Biden , Sanders and Bloomberg all decent chances .
That regional divide in who wins what states has been clear for a while , but to repeat , the real prize of Super Tuesday is pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention .
And our forecast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will get more delegates , on average , out of Super Tuesday than Sanders ( 463 ) will .
That ’ s a big shift from as recently as Sunday , when we were forecasting Sanders to get an average of 540 delegates on Super Tuesday and Biden to get an average of 395 .
Why this sudden turn in Biden ’ s favor ?
As we said , it ’ s mostly about the polling showing an even bigger bounce for Biden than the model expected .
On Monday night and Tuesday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of polls in which a significant number of interviews were conducted after Buttigieg ’ s and Klobuchar ’ s withdrawals from the race , and several were startlingly good for Biden .
For instance , we got four polls in rapid succession of Virginia , a state that had looked like a tossup before South Carolina — and all four gave Biden a lead of at least 14 points .
He is now virtually certain to win the state as a result .
In the same way , North Carolina is now firmly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ release of three new polls that gave Biden an average lead of 16 points in the Tar Heel State .
Biden had already been gaining ground in our California polling average , but new Swayable and Data for Progress polls caused Biden to improve further in our forecast for the state .
Although Sanders still has a lead there and is the likely winner , Biden has cut his projected margin to the single digits — and both Bloomberg and Warren project to get at least 15 percent of the vote in California @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their own and prevent Sanders from running up the score .
On the flip side , if Sanders overperforms in California and keeps Warren and Bloomberg from getting 15 percent there , he has some upside relative to our projections .
Granted , other new polls showed less dramatic movement .
Swayable and Data for Progress released polls of Texas confirming what our forecast already thought : that Sanders and Biden are neck and neck in the Lone Star State , in what is probably the most interesting contest of the evening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a little flukish , like Bloomberg leading in Maine and Utah , per two Swayable polls .
( This still hurt Sanders ’ s chances , though , especially in Utah , which was previously expected to be an easy win for him . )
But few new polls ( outside those of his home state of Vermont ) were unambiguously good for Sanders .
We should keep in mind that none of these new polls are traditional , live-caller telephone polls ; there just wouldn ’ t have been enough time to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carolina .
So that increases the uncertainty — although our model accounts for a lot of uncertainty .
For example , in California , we think Sanders could get anywhere from 26 to 39 percent of the vote , while Biden could get anywhere from 21 percent to 32 percent .
And those are merely 80-percent confidence intervals ; vote shares will fall outside of those ranges 20 percent of the time .
But Biden sure seems to have a lot of upside in today ’ s contests , especially when you consider @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t even pricing in the full impact of the last 72 hours .
Most of them still included Buttigieg and Klobuchar as options , even though some respondents answered them knowing that they had dropped out .
Perhaps Biden ’ s rally in Texas last night and endorsement from former Texas Rep. Beto O ’ Rourke could help him there ; that ’ s also too recent to be reflected in any of the polling .
On the other hand , millions of early votes have already been cast by mail-in states like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been ( and remains ) strong .
When watching the results tonight , you should be careful ; early ballots are counted first in some states ( though not all ) and they may not match election-night returns .
Early voters can also skew older than younger ones , which can be a disadvantage for candidates such as Sanders who rely on young voters .
And in terms of delegates , it ’ s possible for either Biden or Sanders to walk away from Super Tuesday with a big lead .
Our model @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 639 delegates or as few as 341 , and Sanders could get as few as 325 or as many as 608 .
We ’ ll only know after all today ’ s votes have been counted — which , thanks to those mail-in ballots in the West , could take several days .

Former Vice President Joe Biden has gotten a lot of good news over the past few days. A huge, almost 30-point win in South Carolina. A series of impressive endorsements. Other candidates in the moderate lane — namely, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who were among those endorsers — dropping out.
But one thing we haven’t had a lot of since South Carolina was hard data. That changed late last night with a flurry of new polls — we now have at least two polls conducted since South Carolina in every single Super Tuesday state. So by the time we froze the FiveThirtyEight forecast at 9:30 a.m. on Tuesday, the Super Tuesday picture was a lot clearer — and overall, things look good for Biden.
Biden is now about twice as likely as Sanders to win a plurality of pledged delegates, according to our primary model, which gives him a 65 percent chance of doing so compared with a 34 percent chance for Sanders. This represents the culmination of a trend that has been underway in the model for about a week; it started to shift toward Biden once polls showed the potential for him to win big in South Carolina — and it anticipated a polling bounce in the Super Tuesday states if he did win big there. Still, even after South Carolina, Biden’s plurality chances had risen only to 32 percent, compared with 64 percent for Sanders. That means the polling bounce from the events of the past few days has been bigger than the model anticipated.
To be clear, however, there is still a lot of uncertainty. We’ve been talking about delegate pluralities, which obscures the fact that the most likely outcome in the model is still that no one wins a majority of pledged delegates. And we should note that the lack of a majority does not necessarily imply a contested convention. For instance, if Biden enters the convention with 46 percent of delegates and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg with 10 percent, they could strike a deal where Bloomberg delegates vote for Biden on the first ballot.
Still, in the overnight polling, the numbers for Bloomberg — and to a slightly lesser extent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren — held up better than you might have expected. The model has Bloomberg projected to finish with at least 15 percent of the vote in most states, which is the threshold required to receive delegates allocated at the state and district levels — and it has Warren projected to do so in most states outside of the South. While to our eye, the model’s numbers look a little optimistic for Bloomberg, the whole point of a model is to rely on objective data. And that says Bloomberg could still accumulate plenty of delegates, even though he isn’t a favorite in any state. Keep in mind that both Bloomberg and Warren also benefit from Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropping out — it’s easier to get 15 percent in a four-way race than a six-way one.
Overall, the model has “no majority” happening 61 percent of the time, a Biden majority 31 percent of the time and a Sanders majority 8 percent of the time. Anyone else winning a majority would require a minor miracle.
In delegate terms, Biden is projected to finish about 375 delegates ahead of Sanders in the average simulation — but keep in mind that the average obscures a huge amount of variation. Still, this provides for a helpful benchmark. Bloomberg is projected to finish with an average of 555 delegates and Warren with 283 delegates — so their combined delegate tally projects to be more than twice as large as the projected margin separating Biden and Sanders. That’s why the model tends to land on “no majority” outcomes. If Bloomberg, Warren and other candidates are keeping 15 or 20 percent of the overall pledged delegate haul for themselves, then either Sanders or Biden needs to beat the other one by quite a bit to get an overall majority.
Below are our final forecasts for the 15 states and territories that will finish voting today. As you can see, Biden is favored to win in the seven Southern states, although he is anywhere from a very slight front-runner in Texas to a solid favorite in Virginia. And Sanders is favored in the seven remaining states across the Northeast, Midwest and West; his lead is most tenuous in Massachusetts and safest in Vermont. The model isn’t really sure what’s going to happen in American Samoa, where it gives Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg all decent chances.
Biden is favored in the South, Sanders in the North and West Percent chance each top Democratic presidential candidate has of winning each Super Tuesday contest, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 9:30 a.m. Eastern on March 3 Contest Biden Bloomberg Sanders Warren California 22% 1% 76% 0% Texas 55 2 43 0 North Carolina 95 0 4 0 Virginia 98 0 2 0 Massachusetts 20 4 51 25 Minnesota 19 2 53 2 Colorado 20 6 69 5 Tennessee 68 5 25 1 Alabama 92 3 5 0 Oklahoma 78 2 18 2 Arkansas 69 17 12 1 Utah 28 11 59 3 Maine 23 7 68 3 Vermont 0 0 100 0 American Samoa 36 20 36 8
That regional divide in who wins what states has been clear for a while, but to repeat, the real prize of Super Tuesday is pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. And our forecast now says that Biden (484) will get more delegates, on average, out of Super Tuesday than Sanders (463) will. That’s a big shift from as recently as Sunday, when we were forecasting Sanders to get an average of 540 delegates on Super Tuesday and Biden to get an average of 395.
Biden and Sanders are neck and neck in delegates Average number of pledged delegates each top Democratic presidential candidate is forecasted to receive from Super Tuesday contests, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 9:30 a.m. Eastern on March 3 Contest Biden Bloomberg Sanders Warren California 133 63 164 55 Texas 84 43 81 21 North Carolina 54 17 31 7 Virginia 52 14 26 7 Massachusetts 23 15 29 24 Minnesota 20 9 26 9 Colorado 18 13 24 11 Tennessee 26 12 20 6 Alabama 28 9 11 4 Oklahoma 16 5 11 5 Arkansas 12 8 7 3 Utah 8 7 10 4 Maine 7 5 9 3 Vermont 2 1 12 2 American Samoa 2 1 2 1 Total 484 222 463 162
Why this sudden turn in Biden’s favor? As we said, it’s mostly about the polling showing an even bigger bounce for Biden than the model expected. On Monday night and Tuesday morning, we got our first glimpse of polls in which a significant number of interviews were conducted after Buttigieg’s and Klobuchar’s withdrawals from the race, and several were startlingly good for Biden. For instance, we got four polls in rapid succession of Virginia, a state that had looked like a tossup before South Carolina — and all four gave Biden a lead of at least 14 points. He is now virtually certain to win the state as a result. In the same way, North Carolina is now firmly in Biden’s camp with the release of three new polls that gave Biden an average lead of 16 points in the Tar Heel State.
Biden had already been gaining ground in our California polling average, but new Swayable and Data for Progress polls caused Biden to improve further in our forecast for the state. Although Sanders still has a lead there and is the likely winner, Biden has cut his projected margin to the single digits — and both Bloomberg and Warren project to get at least 15 percent of the vote in California, meaning they’ll get delegates of their own and prevent Sanders from running up the score. On the flip side, if Sanders overperforms in California and keeps Warren and Bloomberg from getting 15 percent there, he has some upside relative to our projections.
Granted, other new polls showed less dramatic movement. Swayable and Data for Progress released polls of Texas confirming what our forecast already thought: that Sanders and Biden are neck and neck in the Lone Star State, in what is probably the most interesting contest of the evening. Other polls featured results that looked a little flukish, like Bloomberg leading in Maine and Utah, per two Swayable polls. (This still hurt Sanders’s chances, though, especially in Utah, which was previously expected to be an easy win for him.) But few new polls (outside those of his home state of Vermont) were unambiguously good for Sanders.
We should keep in mind that none of these new polls are traditional, live-caller telephone polls; there just wouldn’t have been enough time to conduct many of them anyway after South Carolina. So that increases the uncertainty — although our model accounts for a lot of uncertainty. For example, in California, we think Sanders could get anywhere from 26 to 39 percent of the vote, while Biden could get anywhere from 21 percent to 32 percent. And those are merely 80-percent confidence intervals; vote shares will fall outside of those ranges 20 percent of the time.
But Biden sure seems to have a lot of upside in today’s contests, especially when you consider that even the polls above aren’t even pricing in the full impact of the last 72 hours. Most of them still included Buttigieg and Klobuchar as options, even though some respondents answered them knowing that they had dropped out. Perhaps Biden’s rally in Texas last night and endorsement from former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke could help him there; that’s also too recent to be reflected in any of the polling.
On the other hand, millions of early votes have already been cast by mail-in states like California and Colorado, where Sanders has been (and remains) strong. When watching the results tonight, you should be careful; early ballots are counted first in some states (though not all) and they may not match election-night returns. Early voters can also skew older than younger ones, which can be a disadvantage for candidates such as Sanders who rely on young voters.
And in terms of delegates, it’s possible for either Biden or Sanders to walk away from Super Tuesday with a big lead. Our model thinks Biden could get as many as 639 delegates or as few as 341, and Sanders could get as few as 325 or as many as 608. We’ll only know after all today’s votes have been counted — which, thanks to those mail-in ballots in the West, could take several days.