fivethirtyeight--2020-11-03--Final Forecast: Democrats Have A 3-In-4 Chance Of Flipping The Senate

Democrats are favored to take control of the Senate in the 2020 elections , according to the final version of FiveThirtyEight ’ s Senate forecast .
With the forecast set in stone as of early Tuesday morning , Democrats have a 75 in 100 chance of flipping the chamber .
Republicans , meanwhile , have a 25 in 100 chance of keeping control — as likely as drawing a spade from a deck of cards .
However , a ton of seats are still competitive ; in 80 percent of our model ’ s simulations , Democrats wind up with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That ’ s a big range !
And the exact number of seats here matters , because it ’ s not just about control of the chamber .
Winning 50 seats ( plus the tie-breaking vice presidential vote ) is a very different outcome for Democrats from winning 55 seats , as the size of their majority would affect how likely they are to pass their ambitious agenda over the objections of more moderate Democrats like , say , Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia .
Now for those competitive seats .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both parties have at least a 5 in 100 chance of victory .
But a big reason why Democrats are favored overall is that Republicans have far more seats at risk — 13 in total , as the table below shows .
( We ’ ll touch on those four seats Democrats could lose in a moment . )
Remember , Democrats need a net gain of only three seats ( if they also win the vice presidency ) or four ( if Vice President Mike Pence wins a second term ) in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all of those GOP-held seats are equally vulnerable — so let ’ s break them down into categories based on roughly how likely they are to turn blue .
First , there are the two Republican-held seats most likely to fall to Democrats : Colorado and Arizona .
In Colorado , former Gov .
John Hickenlooper ’ s chances of defeating Republican Sen. Cory Gardner look particularly strong : 84 in 100 .
This is probably due in part to the fact that Joe Biden looks extremely likely to carry Colorado , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters to split their tickets between the presidential and Senate races .
In Arizona , Biden ’ s victory is less assured , but former astronaut Mark Kelly has proven to be an extremely strong recruit for Democrats in Arizona , raising more than $ 87 million in individual contributions and leading in almost every poll since he entered the race in early 2019 .
Hurt by the fact that she is an appointed senator ( which affords her almost no incumbency advantage ) , Republican Martha McSally has just a 22 in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican-held seats lean toward Democrats — although in all likelihood , we ’ ll only know who won one of them today : North Carolina .
There , former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is a 68 in 100 favorite to defeat Republican Sen. Thom Tillis .
Despite revelations that Cunningham sent sexts to a woman who is not his wife , the race has been pretty stable , and he has managed to hold onto a narrow polling lead .
We give Democrats similar odds ( a 63 in 100 chance ) of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election — but this race will almost certainly not be decided until January .
That ’ s because the race is a battle royal among 20 candidates of all parties ( there was no primary ) , making it nearly impossible that any one candidate will secure the majority of votes necessary to win .
Assuming that doesn ’ t happen , the top two finishers will advance to a runoff on Jan. 5 .
Democrats currently lead in polls of the runoff , but a lot can happen in the next two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state .
Then there are the three Republican-held seats that are more or less toss-ups .
In Maine , Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon has a 59 in 100 chance to win , while incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins has a 41 in 100 chance .
Polls have generally favored Gideon , but Collins , with her moderate voting record and history of running well ahead of other Republicans in Maine , is a strong incumbent who may be able to overcome the state ’ s blue tinge .
The tables are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race , where Republican Sen. David Perdue has 57 in 100 odds and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff isn ’ t that far behind at 43 in 100 .
There ’ s also a decent chance that this race goes to a runoff , as our average vote-share predictions show neither candidate hitting 50 percent .
Last but not least , Iowa is another virtual coin flip of a race : Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has a 58 in 100 chance of winning , while Democrat Theresa Greenfield is at 42 in 100 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the difference between a slim Democratic majority and a robust one are the six Republican-held seats where Democrats are underdogs — but still have an outside shot to pick off .
Perhaps the most likely candidate for an upset is in Montana , where Republican Sen. Steve Daines has a 69 in 100 chance to win — but Democrat Steve Bullock , the state ’ s popular governor , has a 31 in 100 chance .
Democrats also have a respectable 23 in 100 chance in Alaska and a 20 in 100 chance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong independent identities that could help them swim against the partisan tide in these fairly red states .
In Alaska , Al Gross is an independent running as a Democrat ; in Kansas , state Sen. Barbara Bollier was a Republican until 2018 .
And in South Carolina , Jaime Harrison has become the 2020 cycle ’ s Beto O ’ Rourke — a Democrat running a surprisingly strong campaign in a red state against a boldfaced Republican name ( in this case , Sen. Lindsey Graham ) .
Harrison has raised almost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ individual contributions , recently breaking O ’ Rourke ’ s record for biggest Senate fundraising quarter ever .
Harrison has also kept things close in the polls but has just a 23 in 100 chance to win .
Finally , Sens .
Cindy Hyde-Smith ( 88 in 100 ) and John Cornyn ( 86 in 100 ) are healthy favorites to win another term in Mississippi and Texas , respectively , but they aren ’ t totally safe either .
So that ’ s a lot of potential Democratic pickups .
But the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only half the equation : Let ’ s not forget that Republicans have a few chances to play offense as well , which could negate some of those Democratic gains .
But the problem for Republicans is simply that they have fewer seats to target .
In fact , they ’ re likely to flip only one seat .
That ’ s in Alabama , where Republican Tommy Tuberville has an 87 in 100 chance to defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones .
While Jones is the incumbent and raised a considerable amount of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he arguably won the seat in 2017 ’ s special election only because his scandal-tarred Republican opponent was a historically weak candidate .
Ultimately , our forecast thinks Alabama is just too red for Jones to win reelection .
Democrats are pretty strong favorites in every other Democratic-held Senate seat up this year , though .
Some Republicans are optimistic that John James can defeat Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan — and he is one of Republicans ’ strongest recruits of the cycle , having raised almost $ 36 million in individual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ James only a 17 in 100 chance .
And New Mexico and Minnesota are on the cusp of being noncompetitive , as Republicans have only a 6 in 100 chance in the former and a 5 in 100 chance in the latter .
With Republicans likely to defeat one Democratic incumbent , Democrats probably need to flip four Republican-held seats to secure that coveted majority .
And that ’ s very possible : They have a clear path to do so through Colorado , Arizona , North Carolina and ( maybe eventually ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other states where they have a real , if longer , shot .
Overall , when the dust settles , our forecast projects that Democrats will have an average of 52 Senate seats and Republicans an average of 48 .
However , while we hope we know on Tuesday night which party will control the next Senate , we almost certainly won ’ t know its exact composition thanks to potential runoffs in Georgia and slow vote counts in states like Alaska .
It may be pencils down for our forecast , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks as we wrap up all the loose ends in the Senate and elsewhere .

Democrats are favored to take control of the Senate in the 2020 elections, according to the final version of FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast. With the forecast set in stone as of early Tuesday morning, Democrats have a 75 in 100 chance of flipping the chamber. Republicans, meanwhile, have a 25 in 100 chance of keeping control — as likely as drawing a spade from a deck of cards.
However, a ton of seats are still competitive; in 80 percent of our model’s simulations, Democrats wind up with anywhere between 48 and 55 seats. That’s a big range! And the exact number of seats here matters, because it’s not just about control of the chamber. Winning 50 seats (plus the tie-breaking vice presidential vote) is a very different outcome for Democrats from winning 55 seats, as the size of their majority would affect how likely they are to pass their ambitious agenda over the objections of more moderate Democrats like, say, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia.
Now for those competitive seats. There are a whopping 17 Senate seats where both parties have at least a 5 in 100 chance of victory. But a big reason why Democrats are favored overall is that Republicans have far more seats at risk — 13 in total, as the table below shows. (We’ll touch on those four seats Democrats could lose in a moment.)
Democrats have many opportunities to pick up Senate seats Republican-held Senate seats that have less than a 95 percent chance of remaining Republican, according to the final numbers from the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast Chance of Winning State Incumbent Dem. GOP Colorado Cory Gardner 84% 16% Arizona* Martha McSally 78 22 North Carolina Thom Tillis 68 32 Georgia* Kelly Loeffler 63 37 Maine Susan Collins 59 41 Georgia David Perdue 43 57 Iowa Joni Ernst 42 58 Montana Steve Daines 31 69 South Carolina Lindsey Graham 23 77 Alaska Dan Sullivan 23 77 Kansas OPEN 20 80 Texas John Cornyn 14 86 Mississippi Cindy Hyde-Smith 12 88 *Special election.
Remember, Democrats need a net gain of only three seats (if they also win the vice presidency) or four (if Vice President Mike Pence wins a second term) in order to take control. But not all of those GOP-held seats are equally vulnerable — so let’s break them down into categories based on roughly how likely they are to turn blue.
First, there are the two Republican-held seats most likely to fall to Democrats: Colorado and Arizona. In Colorado, former Gov. John Hickenlooper’s chances of defeating Republican Sen. Cory Gardner look particularly strong: 84 in 100. This is probably due in part to the fact that Joe Biden looks extremely likely to carry Colorado, and it’s become increasingly rare for voters to split their tickets between the presidential and Senate races. In Arizona, Biden’s victory is less assured, but former astronaut Mark Kelly has proven to be an extremely strong recruit for Democrats in Arizona, raising more than $87 million in individual contributions and leading in almost every poll since he entered the race in early 2019. Hurt by the fact that she is an appointed senator (which affords her almost no incumbency advantage), Republican Martha McSally has just a 22 in 100 chance to prevail.
Be Wary Of Exit Polls This Year (Well, And All Years) | FiveThirtyEight
Two additional Republican-held seats lean toward Democrats — although in all likelihood, we’ll only know who won one of them today: North Carolina. There, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is a 68 in 100 favorite to defeat Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Despite revelations that Cunningham sent sexts to a woman who is not his wife, the race has been pretty stable, and he has managed to hold onto a narrow polling lead. We give Democrats similar odds (a 63 in 100 chance) of eventually prevailing in Georgia’s special election — but this race will almost certainly not be decided until January. That’s because the race is a battle royal among 20 candidates of all parties (there was no primary), making it nearly impossible that any one candidate will secure the majority of votes necessary to win. Assuming that doesn’t happen, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff on Jan. 5. Democrats currently lead in polls of the runoff, but a lot can happen in the next two months, and Georgia remains a Republican-leaning state.
Then there are the three Republican-held seats that are more or less toss-ups. In Maine, Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon has a 59 in 100 chance to win, while incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins has a 41 in 100 chance. Polls have generally favored Gideon, but Collins, with her moderate voting record and history of running well ahead of other Republicans in Maine, is a strong incumbent who may be able to overcome the state’s blue tinge. The tables are turned in Georgia’s other Senate race, where Republican Sen. David Perdue has 57 in 100 odds and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff isn’t that far behind at 43 in 100. There’s also a decent chance that this race goes to a runoff, as our average vote-share predictions show neither candidate hitting 50 percent. Last but not least, Iowa is another virtual coin flip of a race: Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has a 58 in 100 chance of winning, while Democrat Theresa Greenfield is at 42 in 100.
But the races that could really make the difference between a slim Democratic majority and a robust one are the six Republican-held seats where Democrats are underdogs — but still have an outside shot to pick off. Perhaps the most likely candidate for an upset is in Montana, where Republican Sen. Steve Daines has a 69 in 100 chance to win — but Democrat Steve Bullock, the state’s popular governor, has a 31 in 100 chance. Democrats also have a respectable 23 in 100 chance in Alaska and a 20 in 100 chance in Kansas, where their candidates have strong independent identities that could help them swim against the partisan tide in these fairly red states. In Alaska, Al Gross is an independent running as a Democrat; in Kansas, state Sen. Barbara Bollier was a Republican until 2018. And in South Carolina, Jaime Harrison has become the 2020 cycle’s Beto O’Rourke — a Democrat running a surprisingly strong campaign in a red state against a boldfaced Republican name (in this case, Sen. Lindsey Graham). Harrison has raised almost $108 million (!) in individual contributions, recently breaking O’Rourke’s record for biggest Senate fundraising quarter ever. Harrison has also kept things close in the polls but has just a 23 in 100 chance to win. Finally, Sens. Cindy Hyde-Smith (88 in 100) and John Cornyn (86 in 100) are healthy favorites to win another term in Mississippi and Texas, respectively, but they aren’t totally safe either.
So that’s a lot of potential Democratic pickups. But the number of seats Democrats pick up is only half the equation: Let’s not forget that Republicans have a few chances to play offense as well, which could negate some of those Democratic gains. But the problem for Republicans is simply that they have fewer seats to target. In fact, they’re likely to flip only one seat.
The GOP has fewer opportunities to pick up Senate seats Democratic-held Senate seats that have less than a 95 percent chance of remaining Democratic, according to the final numbers from the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast Chance of Winning State Incumbent Dem. GOP Alabama Doug Jones 13% 87% Michigan Gary Peters 83 17 New Mexico OPEN 94 6 Minnesota Tina Smith 95 5
That’s in Alabama, where Republican Tommy Tuberville has an 87 in 100 chance to defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. While Jones is the incumbent and raised a considerable amount of money (far more than Tuberville), he arguably won the seat in 2017’s special election only because his scandal-tarred Republican opponent was a historically weak candidate. Ultimately, our forecast thinks Alabama is just too red for Jones to win reelection.
Democrats are pretty strong favorites in every other Democratic-held Senate seat up this year, though. Some Republicans are optimistic that John James can defeat Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan — and he is one of Republicans’ strongest recruits of the cycle, having raised almost $36 million in individual contributions — but our forecast nonetheless gives James only a 17 in 100 chance. And New Mexico and Minnesota are on the cusp of being noncompetitive, as Republicans have only a 6 in 100 chance in the former and a 5 in 100 chance in the latter.
With Republicans likely to defeat one Democratic incumbent, Democrats probably need to flip four Republican-held seats to secure that coveted majority. And that’s very possible: They have a clear path to do so through Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina and (maybe eventually) Georgia — not to mention the many other states where they have a real, if longer, shot. Overall, when the dust settles, our forecast projects that Democrats will have an average of 52 Senate seats and Republicans an average of 48. However, while we hope we know on Tuesday night which party will control the next Senate, we almost certainly won’t know its exact composition thanks to potential runoffs in Georgia and slow vote counts in states like Alaska. It may be pencils down for our forecast, but stay with FiveThirtyEight in the next several weeks as we wrap up all the loose ends in the Senate and elsewhere.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-03--Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A N

Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter

FiveThirtyEight has issued its final presidential forecast .
There hasn ’ t been a lot of change over the past 24 or 48 hours , as most of the late polling either came in close to our previous polling averages , or came from — frankly — fairly random pollsters that don ’ t get a lot of weight in our forecast .
Of course , you can click over to the forecast right now if you ’ d like to see what it says — I ’ m sure most of you have already done that .
But in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provide some context .
When I wrote about our final presidential forecast in 2012 , for example , I was trying to explain why a race that everyone assumed was close actually reflected a fairly decisive advantage for Barack Obama .
When I wrote about our final forecast in 2016 , conversely , it was pretty much the opposite .
I was trying to explain that , although Hillary Clinton was favored , what most of the media was portraying as a sure thing was a highly competitive contest between her and Donald @ @ @ @ @ @ @ m not really sure what I ’ m trying to convince you of .
If you think that polling is irrevocably broken because of 2016 — well , that ’ s not really correct .
On the other hand , if it weren ’ t for 2016 , people might look at Joe Biden ’ s large lead in national polls — the largest of any candidate on the eve of the election since Bill Clinton in 1996 — and conclude that Trump was certain to be a one-term president .
If you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ story from earlier this week about how Trump can win and why a 10 percent chance needs to be taken seriously .
Nonetheless , Biden ’ s standing is considerably stronger than Clinton ’ s at the end of the 2016 race .
His lead is larger than Clinton ’ s in every battleground state , and more than double her lead nationally .
Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points , more than twice Clinton ’ s projected margin at the end of 2016 .
Indeed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump to prevail in 2016 wouldn ’ t seem to exist this year .
There are considerably fewer undecided voters in this race — just 4.8 percent of voters say they ’ re undecided or plan to vote for third-party candidates , as compared to 12.5 percent at the end of 2016 .
And the polls have been considerably more stable this year than they were four years ago .
Finally , unlike the “ Comey letter ” in the closing days of the campaign four years ago — when then-FBI Director James @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turned up pertinent to the investigation into the private email server that Clinton used as secretary of state — there ’ s been no major development in the final 10 days to further shake up the race .
Now , there are also some sources of error that weren ’ t as relevant four years ago .
The big surge in early and mail voting — around 100 million people have already voted !
— could present challenges to pollsters , for instance .
Still , even making what we think are fairly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden with an 89 percent chance of winning the Electoral College , as compared to a 10 percent chance for Trump .
( The remaining 1 percent reflects rounding error , plus the chance of an Electoral College tie . )
But what ’ s tricky about this race is that — because of Trump ’ s Electoral College advantage , which he largely carries over from 2016 — it wouldn ’ t take that big of a polling error in Trump ’ s favor to make the election interesting .
Importantly , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a likely Trump win ; instead , the probable result of a 2016-style polling error would be a Biden victory but one that took some time to resolve and which could imperil Democrats ’ chances of taking over the Senate .
On the flip side , it wouldn ’ t take much of a polling error in Biden ’ s favor to turn 2020 into a historic landslide against Trump .
So as we did four years ago , let ’ s run through a few stress checks here .
On average @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been off by around 3 percentage points .
How would the map change if there were a 3-point error in Trump ’ s direction ?
And what about a 3-point error in Biden ’ s direction ?
Keeping in mind that some states move more than others in accordance with national trends , here ’ s what our final forecast shows : First , before we get to the Biden-friendly or Trump-friendly scenarios : Suppose this is one of those happy years when there isn ’ t any systematic error in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by about 8 points nationally .
In that case , then Biden ’ s going to win the Electoral College , even if there might be polling misses in individual states .
Biden ’ s easiest path to victory would be to win back three of the so-called “ Blue Wall ” states that Hillary Clinton lost : Michigan , Wisconsin and Pennsylvania .
Coupled with the states that Clinton won in 2016 , that would get Biden up to 278 electoral votes , more than the 270 required .
Pennsylvania is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” group , but even if Biden lost it — unlikely if polls are about right overall — he ’ d have plenty of other options as he ’ s also narrowly ahead in our final forecast in Arizona , Florida , North Carolina and Georgia and only narrowly behind Trump in Ohio , Texas and Iowa .
What if there were a 3-point polling error in Biden ’ s favor ?
Then he ’ d be a favorite in all of the aforementioned states .
Coupled with the 2nd Congressional Districts in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s also favored , that would result in his winning 413 electoral votes .
Other states that are traditionally extremely red could even come into play for Biden too , with Montana being the most likely possibility , followed by South Carolina , Alaska and Missouri .
This scenario would also make for an 11-point popular vote margin for Biden , the biggest by any candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984 , and the biggest winning margin against an incumbent since Franklin Delano Roosevelt against Herbert Hoover in 1932 .
But with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — more or less what happened in 2016 — the race would become competitive .
Biden would probably hold on , but he ’ d only be the outright favorite in states ( and congressional districts ) containing 279 electoral votes .
In Pennsylvania , the tipping-point state , he ’ d be projected to win by 1.7 percentage points — not within the recount margin , but a close race .
Such a scenario would not be the end of the world for Biden .
The extra cushion that he has relative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ means that with a 2016-style polling error , he ’ d narrowly win some states that she narrowly lost .
Biden has polled well recently in Michigan and Wisconsin in particular and has big leads there .
Still , this would not be the sort of outcome that Democrats were hoping for .
For one thing , because Biden would probably be reliant on Pennsylvania in this scenario — a state that is expected to take some time to count its vote — the election might take longer to call .
For another @ @ @ @ @ @ @ map as far as Democrats ’ Senate hopes go , as Biden would be a narrow underdog in several states with key Senate races , including Arizona , North Carolina , Georgia and Iowa .
So while Biden isn ’ t a normal-sized polling error away from losing , he is a normal-sized polling error away from having a messy win that might not come with control of Congress .
Still , as much as we ’ ve tried to strike a note of caution , Democrats have a right to be pleased @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Biden could be in a meaningly safer position with a larger polling lead in Pennsylvania or Arizona , where his numbers have slipped a bit down the stretch run .
Nonetheless , if we ’ d told our Democratic readers six months ago that Biden would be heading into election morning ahead by 8 points nationally , also ahead by 8 points in Wisconsin and Michigan , by 5 points in Pennsylvania , by 2 or 3 points in Florida and Arizona , and even a little bit ahead in Georgia and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Texas , we think they ’ d be fairly pleased .
It ’ s also worth keeping in mind the background conditions in the country today .
Trump only barely won the election four years ago , against a highly unpopular opponent in Clinton .
In 2016 , 18 percent of voters in the national exit poll disliked both Trump and Clinton , and those voters went for Trump by 17 points .
If they ’ d merely split evenly , Clinton would have ( narrowly ) won the Electoral College .
Many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though , who has much better favorability ratings than either Clinton or Trump .
Meanwhile , the election comes at a time where a 2:1 majority of voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country amid a COVID-19 pandemic that his killed 233,000 Americans — and which has gotten worse in recent weeks — along with high ( though improving ) unemployment , a summer of racial protests , and continuous erosions of democratic norms by Trump and his administration .
Trump ’ s approval rating has been in negative territory through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s electoral record is hardly unblemished : Democrats won the popular vote for the U.S. House by nearly 9 points in 2018 , about the same margin that Trump now trails in national polls , in an election where polls and forecasts were highly accurate .
In other words , given everything going on in the country — and Biden ’ s popularity relative to Clinton — it simply shouldn ’ t be that hard to imagine a small number of voters switching from Trump to Biden .
Indeed , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are more Trump-to-Biden voters than Clinton-to-Trump voters .
The lion ’ s share of people who voted for Gary Johnson or another third party candidate four years ago also say they plan to vote for Biden .
Trump might be able to overcome this with a disproportionately high Republican turnout .
But while Republican turnout might be very high , Democratic turnout almost certainly will be too , as evidenced by , among other things : Democrats ’ equal or higher enthusiasm level in polls ; their very high numbers in early and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prowess throughout the cycle .
Again , this is not to deny that Trump will turn out his voters , too .
Our model projects overall turnout in the race to be a record setting 158 million , with an 80th percentile range between 147 million and 168 million .
But if persuadable voters and independents are mostly flipping to the other party , you need your turnout to be high and for the other party ’ s to be low to have much of a shot , and that latter condition doesn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Still , 10 percent chances happen , there ’ s never been an election quite like this one and this isn ’ t a moment that anybody should be taking anything for granted .
We hope you ’ ll follow our coverage for as long as it takes to determine who won .

FiveThirtyEight has issued its final presidential forecast. There hasn’t been a lot of change over the past 24 or 48 hours, as most of the late polling either came in close to our previous polling averages, or came from — frankly — fairly random pollsters that don’t get a lot of weight in our forecast.
Of course, you can click over to the forecast right now if you’d like to see what it says — I’m sure most of you have already done that. But in these accompanying write-ups, I like to provide some context. When I wrote about our final presidential forecast in 2012, for example, I was trying to explain why a race that everyone assumed was close actually reflected a fairly decisive advantage for Barack Obama. When I wrote about our final forecast in 2016, conversely, it was pretty much the opposite. I was trying to explain that, although Hillary Clinton was favored, what most of the media was portraying as a sure thing was a highly competitive contest between her and Donald Trump.
This year … I’m not really sure what I’m trying to convince you of. If you think that polling is irrevocably broken because of 2016 — well, that’s not really correct. On the other hand, if it weren’t for 2016, people might look at Joe Biden’s large lead in national polls — the largest of any candidate on the eve of the election since Bill Clinton in 1996 — and conclude that Trump was certain to be a one-term president. If you do think that, please read my story from earlier this week about how Trump can win and why a 10 percent chance needs to be taken seriously.
Nonetheless, Biden’s standing is considerably stronger than Clinton’s at the end of the 2016 race. His lead is larger than Clinton’s in every battleground state, and more than double her lead nationally. Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points, more than twice Clinton’s projected margin at the end of 2016.
What the election map will look like if there’s a 2016-sized polling error
Indeed, some of the dynamics that allowed Trump to prevail in 2016 wouldn’t seem to exist this year. There are considerably fewer undecided voters in this race — just 4.8 percent of voters say they’re undecided or plan to vote for third-party candidates, as compared to 12.5 percent at the end of 2016. And the polls have been considerably more stable this year than they were four years ago. Finally, unlike the “Comey letter” in the closing days of the campaign four years ago — when then-FBI Director James Comey told Congress that new evidence had turned up pertinent to the investigation into the private email server that Clinton used as secretary of state — there’s been no major development in the final 10 days to further shake up the race.
Now, there are also some sources of error that weren’t as relevant four years ago. The big surge in early and mail voting — around 100 million people have already voted! — could present challenges to pollsters, for instance. Still, even making what we think are fairly conservative assumptions, our final forecast has Biden with an 89 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, as compared to a 10 percent chance for Trump. (The remaining 1 percent reflects rounding error, plus the chance of an Electoral College tie.)
But what’s tricky about this race is that — because of Trump’s Electoral College advantage, which he largely carries over from 2016 — it wouldn’t take that big of a polling error in Trump’s favor to make the election interesting. Importantly, interesting isn’t the same thing as a likely Trump win; instead, the probable result of a 2016-style polling error would be a Biden victory but one that took some time to resolve and which could imperil Democrats’ chances of taking over the Senate. On the flip side, it wouldn’t take much of a polling error in Biden’s favor to turn 2020 into a historic landslide against Trump.
So as we did four years ago, let’s run through a few stress checks here. On average in past elections, the final polls have been off by around 3 percentage points. How would the map change if there were a 3-point error in Trump’s direction? And what about a 3-point error in Biden’s direction? Keeping in mind that some states move more than others in accordance with national trends, here’s what our final forecast shows:
How a 2016-sized polling error would change our forecast Biden’s projected margin of victory or defeat in the most competitive states with 3-point national error … State Final 538 Forecast IN BIDEN’S FAVOR IN TRUMP’S FAVOR New Hampshire +10.6 +14.5 +6.7 Minnesota +9.1 +12.1 +6.0 Wisconsin +8.3 +11.6 +5.1 Michigan +8.0 +11.2 +4.9 Nevada +6.1 +9.5 +2.8 Pennsylvania +4.7 +7.7 +1.7 NE-2 +3.2 +6.4 -0.0 Arizona +2.6 +5.8 -0.7 Florida +2.5 +5.7 -0.7 North Carolina +1.8 +4.7 -1.1 ME-2 +1.6 +4.8 -1.6 Georgia +1.0 +3.6 -1.6 Ohio -0.6 +2.5 -3.7 Iowa -1.5 +2.0 -5.0 Texas -1.5 +1.7 -4.7 Montana -6.4 -3.3 -9.5 South Carolina -7.5 -4.8 -10.2 Alaska -8.5 -5.3 -11.7 Missouri -9.4 -6.3 -12.5
First, before we get to the Biden-friendly or Trump-friendly scenarios: Suppose this is one of those happy years when there isn’t any systematic error in the polls — that is, Biden wins by about 8 points nationally. In that case, then Biden’s going to win the Electoral College, even if there might be polling misses in individual states. Biden’s easiest path to victory would be to win back three of the so-called “Blue Wall” states that Hillary Clinton lost: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Coupled with the states that Clinton won in 2016, that would get Biden up to 278 electoral votes, more than the 270 required. Pennsylvania is the most tenuous of the “Blue Wall” group, but even if Biden lost it — unlikely if polls are about right overall — he’d have plenty of other options as he’s also narrowly ahead in our final forecast in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia and only narrowly behind Trump in Ohio, Texas and Iowa.
What if there were a 3-point polling error in Biden’s favor? Then he’d be a favorite in all of the aforementioned states. Coupled with the 2nd Congressional Districts in Maine and Nebraska, where he’s also favored, that would result in his winning 413 electoral votes. Other states that are traditionally extremely red could even come into play for Biden too, with Montana being the most likely possibility, followed by South Carolina, Alaska and Missouri. This scenario would also make for an 11-point popular vote margin for Biden, the biggest by any candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and the biggest winning margin against an incumbent since Franklin Delano Roosevelt against Herbert Hoover in 1932.
But with a 3-point error in Trump’s direction — more or less what happened in 2016 — the race would become competitive. Biden would probably hold on, but he’d only be the outright favorite in states (and congressional districts) containing 279 electoral votes. In Pennsylvania, the tipping-point state, he’d be projected to win by 1.7 percentage points — not within the recount margin, but a close race.
Such a scenario would not be the end of the world for Biden. The extra cushion that he has relative to Clinton helps a lot; it means that with a 2016-style polling error, he’d narrowly win some states that she narrowly lost. Biden has polled well recently in Michigan and Wisconsin in particular and has big leads there. Still, this would not be the sort of outcome that Democrats were hoping for. For one thing, because Biden would probably be reliant on Pennsylvania in this scenario — a state that is expected to take some time to count its vote — the election might take longer to call. For another, it could yield a fairly bad map as far as Democrats’ Senate hopes go, as Biden would be a narrow underdog in several states with key Senate races, including Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Iowa. So while Biden isn’t a normal-sized polling error away from losing, he is a normal-sized polling error away from having a messy win that might not come with control of Congress.
Still, as much as we’ve tried to strike a note of caution, Democrats have a right to be pleased about where they wound up. Sure, Biden could be in a meaningly safer position with a larger polling lead in Pennsylvania or Arizona, where his numbers have slipped a bit down the stretch run. Nonetheless, if we’d told our Democratic readers six months ago that Biden would be heading into election morning ahead by 8 points nationally, also ahead by 8 points in Wisconsin and Michigan, by 5 points in Pennsylvania, by 2 or 3 points in Florida and Arizona, and even a little bit ahead in Georgia and with a pretty decent chance to win Texas, we think they’d be fairly pleased.
It’s also worth keeping in mind the background conditions in the country today. Trump only barely won the election four years ago, against a highly unpopular opponent in Clinton. In 2016, 18 percent of voters in the national exit poll disliked both Trump and Clinton, and those voters went for Trump by 17 points. If they’d merely split evenly, Clinton would have (narrowly) won the Electoral College. Many of those voters actually like Biden, though, who has much better favorability ratings than either Clinton or Trump.
Meanwhile, the election comes at a time where a 2:1 majority of voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country amid a COVID-19 pandemic that his killed 233,000 Americans — and which has gotten worse in recent weeks — along with high (though improving) unemployment, a summer of racial protests, and continuous erosions of democratic norms by Trump and his administration. Trump’s approval rating has been in negative territory through virtually the entirety of his presidency. Trump’s electoral record is hardly unblemished: Democrats won the popular vote for the U.S. House by nearly 9 points in 2018, about the same margin that Trump now trails in national polls, in an election where polls and forecasts were highly accurate.
In other words, given everything going on in the country — and Biden’s popularity relative to Clinton — it simply shouldn’t be that hard to imagine a small number of voters switching from Trump to Biden. Indeed, that’s what polls show: There are more Trump-to-Biden voters than Clinton-to-Trump voters. The lion’s share of people who voted for Gary Johnson or another third party candidate four years ago also say they plan to vote for Biden.
Trump might be able to overcome this with a disproportionately high Republican turnout. But while Republican turnout might be very high, Democratic turnout almost certainly will be too, as evidenced by, among other things: Democrats’ equal or higher enthusiasm level in polls; their very high numbers in early and absentee voting, and their greater fundraising prowess throughout the cycle.
Again, this is not to deny that Trump will turn out his voters, too. Our model projects overall turnout in the race to be a record setting 158 million, with an 80th percentile range between 147 million and 168 million. But if persuadable voters and independents are mostly flipping to the other party, you need your turnout to be high and for the other party’s to be low to have much of a shot, and that latter condition doesn’t appear likely for Trump.
Still, 10 percent chances happen, there’s never been an election quite like this one and this isn’t a moment that anybody should be taking anything for granted. We hope you’ll follow our coverage for as long as it takes to determine who won.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-03--What The 2020 Election Map Would Look Like If There’s A 2016-Sized Polling Error

Our forecast shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a considerable lead .
But what would happen if 2020 saw @ @ @ @ @ error as we saw in 2016 ?
Podcast host Galen Druke guides us through the @ @ @

What The 2020 Election Map Would Look Like If There’s A 2016-Sized Polling Error
Our forecast shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a considerable lead. But what would happen if 2020 saw the same type of polling error as we saw in 2016? Podcast host Galen Druke guides us through the electoral map.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-03--Even In The Middle Of A Pandemic, The 2020 Election Has Always Been About Trump

In the final preelection installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew takes a final look at the data @ @ @ @ @ that defined the 2020 campaign , and shares their guide for what to follow on @ @ @

Even In The Middle Of A Pandemic, The 2020 Election Has Always Been About Trump
In the final preelection installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that defined the 2020 campaign, and shares their guide for what to follow on election night.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-05--When Will We Finally Get Results In Unprojected States?

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses the election results so far , what results @ @ @ @ @ , and some of the trends in the data .

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the election results so far, what results are left to come in, and some of the trends in the data.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-05--Red And Blue Shifts Happen. That’s Not Evidence Of Fraud.

As the hours pass , some battleground states have swung back and forth between Joe Biden leads and Donald Trump @ @ @ @ @ explains , that ’ s not a sign of corruption or fraud .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ the way Americans voted this year .
CORRECTION ( Nov. 4 , 2020 , 10 @ @ @ @ @ for a previous version of a chart in this video , showing the vote for @ @ @ @ @ time in Kansas , was incorrectly labeled .
The correct scale on the chart is @ @ @ @ @ not 0-8 million .

As the hours pass, some battleground states have swung back and forth between Joe Biden leads and Donald Trump leads. As Laura Bronner explains, that’s not a sign of corruption or fraud. It’s a predictable outcome of the way Americans voted this year.
CORRECTION (Nov. 4, 2020, 10 p.m.): The y-axis for a previous version of a chart in this video, showing the vote for Trump and Biden reported over time in Kansas, was incorrectly labeled. The correct scale on the chart is 0-800,000 votes in Kansas, not 0-8 million.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-05--Politics Podcast: Biden’s Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer

After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan , the former vice president ’ @ @ @ @ @ looking clearer .
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses @ @ @ @ @ what ’ s left to come in , and some of the trends in the @ @ @ @ @ to answer questions about polling errors in the 2020 election .
You can listen to @ @ @ @ @ “ play ” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes @ @ @ @ @ your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , learn how to @ @ @ @ @ podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving @ @ @ @ @ on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. @ @ @ @ @ in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments .

After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president’s path to victory is looking clearer. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the results so far, what’s left to come in, and some of the trends in the data. They also begin to answer questions about polling errors in the 2020 election.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-04--Politics Podcast: The Election Isn’t Over

In this late-night edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses what we know so far about the @ @ @ @ @ .
TL ; DR there is still a lot we don ’ t know , @ @ @ @ @ vote is still uncounted .

In this late-night edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses what we know so far about the results of the 2020 election. TL;DR there is still a lot we don’t know, and a lot of the vote is still uncounted.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-03--How We’re Preparing For Election Night And, Of Course, What We’re Watching

Election Day is finally here !
It ’ s an important day for the country and an exciting day here @ @ @ @ @ ) offices .
So how are we all preparing for tonight ?
And more importantly @ @ @ @ @ going to be watching for as results start coming in ?
Plus , Galen attempts @ @ @ @ @ Be sure to follow our Election Day live blog here all day .

How We’re Preparing For Election Night And, Of Course, What We’re Watching
Election Day is finally here! It’s an important day for the country and an exciting day here at the FiveThirtyEight (virtual) offices. So how are we all preparing for tonight? And more importantly, what are we all going to be watching for as results start coming in? Plus, Galen attempts to interview Fivey Fox.
Be sure to follow our Election Day live blog here all day.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-03--Take Me Out To The Ballot Box

Take Me Out To The Ballot Box

It ’ s a familiar sight in Boston in mid-October : a line of people , many decked out in Red Sox gear , stretched down Jersey Street , waiting to pass through Gate A and enter historic Fenway Park .
But this year , they weren ’ t going to see a baseball game .
They were going to vote .
The Red Sox were one of dozens of sports teams to offer up their home stadiums as polling places for this election .
With the coronavirus pandemic forcing polling sites to relocate from cramped spaces like fire stations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sports facilities have emerged as excellent alternatives ( if not without controversy in some cases ) .
Their massive size means they can process tons of voters at once and still leave space for social distancing , and some of them are even outdoors , which lowers the risk of transmitting the virus .
Plus , they ’ re just a cool place to vote — especially for fans who haven ’ t been able to see their favorite teams in person this year .
The demand to vote at Fenway was sky-high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting , a Red Sox staffer said the line wrapped around nearly the entire park , from Jersey Street to Van Ness Street to Ipswich Street to Lansdowne Street , and even later in the day , voters were waiting 45 minutes to get in .
Nevertheless , one family of Red Sox season ticket holders told me how happy they were just to have a chance to visit Fenway this year .
And voter Kate McElhiney said she went out of her way to vote at Fenway , which is on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ home .
McElhiney told me she wanted to vote at Fenway partly because of the novelty , but also partly because she considered the cavernous , well-ventilated concourse the safest environment in which to vote .
While the pandemic may have created the demand for stadium polling places , it was the summer ’ s racial-justice demonstrations that inspired teams to supply them .
As Black Lives Matter protests swept the country in early June , the Atlanta Hawks were the first team in any league to volunteer their home court , State @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Unfortunately — but fortunately for early voting — our facility was not hosting any games , ” Amy Phuong , the Hawks ’ vice president of government relations , told FiveThirtyEight .
“ So [ CEO Steve Koonin ] had an idea : With everyone out there lending their voices , what better way to lend our voice ?
” Bekah Salwasser , executive director of the Red Sox Foundation , agreed with that sentiment .
“ We know people around the country — for many months , through protests or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
“ And we believe that one of the best ways to make definitive change as an individual and as a civilian in this country is by voting.
” Player activism played a huge role , especially in basketball .
In late August , NBA players ( led by the Milwaukee Bucks ) staged a wildcat strike in protest of the police shooting of Jacob Blake , and the movement was joined by players in the WNBA , MLB , MLS and NHL .
The NBA strike ended two days later after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agreed to convert its arenas into polling places wherever possible , leading to several more facilities being approved as polling sites .
In total , at least 39 major-league sports facilities are being used as voting locations this fall — including 31 that are open for voting today , Election Day .
The list includes 11 NHL arenas , 10 NFL stadiums , five MLB ballparks and five WNBA arenas .
But the NBA leads the way , with 17 of its 28 domestic arenas converted into polling places .
While that falls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strike of full participation , some other arenas are encouraging civic participation or assisting election officials in other ways .
The Oklahoma City Thunder held voter-registration drives inside the Chesapeake Energy Arena ; election workers were trained at the Detroit Pistons ’ Little Caesars Arena ; ballots will be counted inside the Memphis Grizzlies ’ FedExForum .
And while the Chase Center in San Francisco isn ’ t a polling place , other Golden State Warriors facilities are , and there is a ballot drop-off location outside the Chase Center itself .
Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could .
Ultimately , it ’ s not up to teams to decide whether their arenas become polling places — it ’ s up to election authorities .
( According to Salwasser and Phuong , Fenway and State Farm Arena both had to meet certain criteria before they were approved as polling places ; for instance , the Boston Election Department conducted a site visit of Fenway . )
And sometimes , a local government declined a team ’ s offers — much to the chagrin of the team .
For example , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Miami-Dade County rejected their invitation to make AmericanAirlines Arena an early-voting site , instead opting for a smaller space at a nearby museum .
The Miami Herald later revealed that county Mayor Carlos Gimenez , the Republican candidate for Florida ’ s 26th Congressional District , intervened to prevent election officials from choosing the arena .
And in Milwaukee , the Bucks ’ Fiserv Forum and the Brewers ’ Miller Park had already been announced as early-voting locations when the Milwaukee Election Commission abruptly dropped those plans , citing concerns that votes there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a Bucks senior vice president , told FiveThirtyEight that the team was disappointed by the decision and had been looking forward to giving people in Milwaukee , especially people of color , an accessible place to vote .
But “ we also know it was the right decision , ” Lasry said .
“ We want there to be no doubt every ballot cast is legitimate and don ’ t want anyone ’ s voices to be taken away.
” And the team was still able to chip in by hosting voter-registration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ serving as polling places , voters are being treated to a voting experience like no other .
At State Farm Arena , the Hawks set up three distinct voting areas , including one where voters entered through the giant “ Atlanta ” letters , were checked in amid the “ Hawk Walk ” concessions area and voted at machines set up throughout the 100-level concourse and arena floor .
Altogether , the arena housed more than 300 voting machines ; according to Phuong , that ’ s more than any other early-voting location @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the entire country .
She added that nearly 300 Hawks employees were helping out by filling roles as varied as greeting voters and serving as poll workers alongside county employees .
At Fenway , almost 100 Red Sox front-office staffers and day-of-game workers volunteered to help manage the crowds , while City of Boston poll workers handled the actual check-in and check-out processes .
First , just inside Gate A , voters confirmed with a poll worker that they were registered in Boston .
Then it was a short walk up a ramp @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 29-31 , where a second check-in desk sat ready to hand the voter one of 37 different ballots , depending on where in Boston they lived and what races they were eligible to vote in .
Voters marked their ballots at booths set up in front of a mural of Ted Williams and a Samuel Adams bar .
Then , after they dropped them into a ballot-collection box in front of a concession stand that normally sells soft serve ice cream , came the cherry on top : stickers reading , “ I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chance to climb up into the grandstand and see the field .
What the election map will look like if there ’ s a 2016-sized polling error

It’s a familiar sight in Boston in mid-October: a line of people, many decked out in Red Sox gear, stretched down Jersey Street, waiting to pass through Gate A and enter historic Fenway Park. But this year, they weren’t going to see a baseball game. They were going to vote.
The Red Sox were one of dozens of sports teams to offer up their home stadiums as polling places for this election. With the coronavirus pandemic forcing polling sites to relocate from cramped spaces like fire stations or high-risk locations like nursing homes, sports facilities have emerged as excellent alternatives (if not without controversy in some cases). Their massive size means they can process tons of voters at once and still leave space for social distancing, and some of them are even outdoors, which lowers the risk of transmitting the virus.
Plus, they’re just a cool place to vote — especially for fans who haven’t been able to see their favorite teams in person this year. The demand to vote at Fenway was sky-high; on the first morning of early voting, a Red Sox staffer said the line wrapped around nearly the entire park, from Jersey Street to Van Ness Street to Ipswich Street to Lansdowne Street, and even later in the day, voters were waiting 45 minutes to get in. Nevertheless, one family of Red Sox season ticket holders told me how happy they were just to have a chance to visit Fenway this year. And voter Kate McElhiney said she went out of her way to vote at Fenway, which is on the other side of town from her Dorchester home. McElhiney told me she wanted to vote at Fenway partly because of the novelty, but also partly because she considered the cavernous, well-ventilated concourse the safest environment in which to vote.
While the pandemic may have created the demand for stadium polling places, it was the summer’s racial-justice demonstrations that inspired teams to supply them. As Black Lives Matter protests swept the country in early June, the Atlanta Hawks were the first team in any league to volunteer their home court, State Farm Arena, as a polling place. “Unfortunately — but fortunately for early voting — our facility was not hosting any games,” Amy Phuong, the Hawks’ vice president of government relations, told FiveThirtyEight. “So [CEO Steve Koonin] had an idea: With everyone out there lending their voices, what better way to lend our voice?”
Bekah Salwasser, executive director of the Red Sox Foundation, agreed with that sentiment. “We know people around the country — for many months, through protests or demonstrations — want change,” she said. “And we believe that one of the best ways to make definitive change as an individual and as a civilian in this country is by voting.”
Player activism played a huge role, especially in basketball. In late August, NBA players (led by the Milwaukee Bucks) staged a wildcat strike in protest of the police shooting of Jacob Blake, and the movement was joined by players in the WNBA, MLB, MLS and NHL. The NBA strike ended two days later after, among other things, the league agreed to convert its arenas into polling places wherever possible, leading to several more facilities being approved as polling sites.
In total, at least 39 major-league sports facilities are being used as voting locations this fall — including 31 that are open for voting today, Election Day. The list includes 11 NHL arenas, 10 NFL stadiums, five MLB ballparks and five WNBA arenas.
You can vote at a sports arena in many cities MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL and WNBA stadiums used as polling places for the 2020 election Open For… Venue Team Early Voting Election Day Amalie Arena Tampa Bay Lightning ✓ American Airlines Center Dallas Mavericks, Stars ✓ ✓ Amway Center Orlando Magic ✓ Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum Phoenix Mercury ✓ ✓ Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City Chiefs ✓ AT&T Center San Antonio Spurs ✓ ✓ Ball Arena Denver Nuggets, Colorado Avalanche ✓ ✓ Bank of America Stadium Carolina Panthers ✓ Bankers Life Fieldhouse Indiana Pacers, Fever ✓ Barclays Center Brooklyn Nets, New York Liberty ✓ ✓ Capital One Arena Washington Wizards, Capitals ✓ ✓ CenturyLink Field Seattle Seahawks ✓ ✓ Dodger Stadium Los Angeles Dodgers ✓ ✓ Entertainment and Sports Arena Washington Mystics ✓ ✓ FedEx Field Washington Football Team ✓ Fenway Park Boston Red Sox ✓ Gila River Arena Arizona Coyotes ✓ ✓ Golden 1 Center Sacramento Kings ✓ ✓ Honda Center Anaheim Ducks ✓ ✓ Lambeau Field Green Bay Packers ✓ Levi’s Stadium San Francisco 49ers ✓ ✓ Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis Colts ✓ ✓ Madison Square Garden New York Knicks, Rangers ✓ ✓ Nationals Park Washington Nationals ✓ ✓ NRG Stadium Houston Texans ✓ ✓ Oakland Coliseum Oakland Athletics ✓ ✓ Oriole Park at Camden Yards Baltimore Orioles ✓ ✓ PPG Paints Arena Pittsburgh Penguins ✓ Prudential Center New Jersey Devils ✓ Raymond James Stadium Tampa Bay Buccaneers ✓ Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse Cleveland Cavaliers ✓ Smoothie King Center New Orleans Pelicans ✓ SoFi Stadium Los Angeles Rams, Chargers ✓ ✓ Spectrum Center Charlotte Hornets ✓ Staples Center Los Angeles Lakers, Clippers, Kings, Sparks ✓ ✓ State Farm Arena Atlanta Hawks ✓ Toyota Center Houston Rockets ✓ ✓ United Center Chicago Bulls, Blackhawks ✓ Vivint Smart Home Arena Utah Jazz ✓ Sources: News reports, team websites
But the NBA leads the way, with 17 of its 28 domestic arenas converted into polling places. While that falls short of the goal set after the strike of full participation, some other arenas are encouraging civic participation or assisting election officials in other ways. The Oklahoma City Thunder held voter-registration drives inside the Chesapeake Energy Arena; election workers were trained at the Detroit Pistons’ Little Caesars Arena; ballots will be counted inside the Memphis Grizzlies’ FedExForum. And while the Chase Center in San Francisco isn’t a polling place, other Golden State Warriors facilities are, and there is a ballot drop-off location outside the Chase Center itself.
Even more venues would be participating if they could. Ultimately, it’s not up to teams to decide whether their arenas become polling places — it’s up to election authorities. (According to Salwasser and Phuong, Fenway and State Farm Arena both had to meet certain criteria before they were approved as polling places; for instance, the Boston Election Department conducted a site visit of Fenway.) And sometimes, a local government declined a team’s offers — much to the chagrin of the team. For example, the Miami Heat were not pleased when Miami-Dade County rejected their invitation to make AmericanAirlines Arena an early-voting site, instead opting for a smaller space at a nearby museum. The Miami Herald later revealed that county Mayor Carlos Gimenez, the Republican candidate for Florida’s 26th Congressional District, intervened to prevent election officials from choosing the arena.
And in Milwaukee, the Bucks’ Fiserv Forum and the Brewers’ Miller Park had already been announced as early-voting locations when the Milwaukee Election Commission abruptly dropped those plans, citing concerns that votes there could be legally challenged. Alex Lasry, a Bucks senior vice president, told FiveThirtyEight that the team was disappointed by the decision and had been looking forward to giving people in Milwaukee, especially people of color, an accessible place to vote. But “we also know it was the right decision,” Lasry said. “We want there to be no doubt every ballot cast is legitimate and don’t want anyone’s voices to be taken away.” And the team was still able to chip in by hosting voter-registration drives.
At the stadiums that are serving as polling places, voters are being treated to a voting experience like no other. At State Farm Arena, the Hawks set up three distinct voting areas, including one where voters entered through the giant “Atlanta” letters, were checked in amid the “Hawk Walk” concessions area and voted at machines set up throughout the 100-level concourse and arena floor. Altogether, the arena housed more than 300 voting machines; according to Phuong, that’s more than any other early-voting location in Georgia and, she believes, the entire country. She added that nearly 300 Hawks employees were helping out by filling roles as varied as greeting voters and serving as poll workers alongside county employees.
At Fenway, almost 100 Red Sox front-office staffers and day-of-game workers volunteered to help manage the crowds, while City of Boston poll workers handled the actual check-in and check-out processes. First, just inside Gate A, voters confirmed with a poll worker that they were registered in Boston. Then it was a short walk up a ramp to the third-base concourse below grandstand sections 29-31, where a second check-in desk sat ready to hand the voter one of 37 different ballots, depending on where in Boston they lived and what races they were eligible to vote in.
Voters marked their ballots at booths set up in front of a mural of Ted Williams and a Samuel Adams bar. Then, after they dropped them into a ballot-collection box in front of a concession stand that normally sells soft serve ice cream, came the cherry on top: stickers reading, “I voted at Fenway Park” and a chance to climb up into the grandstand and see the field.
Santul Nerkar contributed research.
What the election map will look like if there’s a 2016-sized polling error
CORRECTION (Nov. 5, 2020, 10:30 a.m.): The table in this article listed Lucas Oil Stadium as open for voting on Election Day but failed to note its status as an early-voting location. County election officials decided on Oct. 30 to allow voting at the Indianapolis Colts’ stadium starting Oct. 31.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-06--Politics Podcast: Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania … And The Presidency

As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states , and as Biden ’ s margins continue to @ @ @ @ @ likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden .
In this installment @ @ @ @ @ , the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what @ @ @ @ @ results at this point .
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “ @ @ @ @ @ audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your @ @ @ @ @ you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast @ @ @ @ @ .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on @ @ @ @ @ , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
Get in @ @ @ @ @ Twitter or in the comments .

As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden’s margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what to make of the overall results at this point.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-05--The Fate Of The Senate Likely Hinges On Georgia

We may not know who holds a majority in the Senate until one or two runoff elections are held in @ @ @ @ @ Galen Druke speaks with senior writer Perry Bacon Jr. about how which party controls the @ @ @ @ @ Biden presidency .

We may not know who holds a majority in the Senate until one or two runoff elections are held in Georgia next year, so Galen Druke speaks with senior writer Perry Bacon Jr. about how which party controls the Senate could affect a potential Biden presidency.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-06--Biden Appears On The Verge Of Overtaking Trump In Pennsylvania

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming @ @ @ @ @ of the overall results at this point .

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what to make of the overall results at this point.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-06--Is The Presidential Election Over?

Is The Presidential Election Over?

Managing editor Micah Cohen joins Galen Druke to talk about whether the remaining votes being counted , particularly in Pennsylvania @ @ @ @ @ ’ s lead nationwide .
They also discuss the significance of the outcomes in Arizona @ @ @ @ @ Biden wins Pennsylvania .

Managing editor Micah Cohen joins Galen Druke to talk about whether the remaining votes being counted, particularly in Pennsylvania, could shake Joe Biden’s lead nationwide. They also discuss the significance of the outcomes in Arizona and Nevada, even if Biden wins Pennsylvania.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-07--This Was A Pretty Good Map For Biden

This Was A Pretty Good Map For Biden

In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala @ @ @ @ @ the next president and vice president , respectively , of the United States .

In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are set to become the next president and vice president, respectively, of the United States.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-07--Politics Podcast: Biden Is Set To Be President. What Comes Next?

On Saturday , the major networks declared that Joe Biden is set to be the next president of the United @ @ @ @ @ of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew reacts to the news , breaks down @ @ @ @ @ discusses what comes next .

On Saturday, the major networks declared that Joe Biden is set to be the next president of the United States. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news, breaks down trends within the electorate and discusses what comes next.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-07--What Trump Revealed About America

What Trump Revealed About America

Now that Joe Biden is set to become the 46th president of the United States , politics writer Clare Malone @ @ @ @ @ reflect on what the Trump era laid bare about American life and American exceptionalism .

Now that Joe Biden is set to become the 46th president of the United States, politics writer Clare Malone and deputy editor Chadwick Matlin reflect on what the Trump era laid bare about American life and American exceptionalism.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-07--How Joe Biden And Kamala Harris Won A Historic Election

As multiple news outlets report that Joe Biden has won the presidency , managing editor Micah Cohen and politics editor @ @ @ @ @ Druke about this historic election .

As multiple news outlets report that Joe Biden has won the presidency, managing editor Micah Cohen and politics editor Sarah Frostenson talk with Galen Druke about this historic election.


fivethirtyeight--2020-11-07--Biden May Have Won The Election — But The Deep Partisan Divide In America Remains

Joe Biden is the apparent winner of Pennsylvania .
On Saturday morning , the major networks declared that he had won there , giving him enough electoral votes to become the president-elect .
But let ’ s go back to late Tuesday night for a moment … Once it was fairly clear that Biden would likely win the presidential election but in more of a drawn-out nail-biter than many polls had suggested , and that Democrats would keep their majority in the U.S. House but lose seats and perhaps not win control of the U.S. Senate , people in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the 2020 race .
Many of these arguments focused on flaws or shortcomings in the Democratic approach to 2020 — even though they had just pulled off the somewhat rare feat of unseating an incumbent president .
Some analysts argued that Democrats are too liberal , particularly on racial issues ; others argued that Democrats are insufficiently liberal , particularly on economic issues .
There is renewed criticism that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are bad at crafting a narrative for the party and recruiting candidates for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the party is not doing enough to appeal to Hispanic voters .
There are also questions about why polls appeared to understate the depth of Trump ’ s support ( again ) .
And , finally , there are questions once again about whether the broader political media is missing something in telling the story of American politics .
After all , the media has often cast Trump as an ineffective president , particularly in dealing with the outbreak of the novel coronavirus , and yet nearly half of the country ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of these arguments could be true .
All of them could be true ( except the mutually exclusive ones ) .
But here ’ s another take , or perhaps an anti-take : At the least , the unique nature of the vote in 2020 — in particular , that the counting is taking and will take longer than usual — means we won ’ t know many of these answers for some time .
And , moreover , Tuesday wasn ’ t particularly unusual , at least in the context of modern @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans , including the vast majority of Asian , Black and Hispanic voters , backed the Democratic Party ’ s presidential candidate .
A slightly smaller bloc , including the majority of white Americans and the overwhelming majority of white evangelical Protestants , backed the Republican Party ’ s candidate .
Democrats carried states on the West Coast and in the Northeast , the GOP was dominant in the South and the Great Plains .
Democrats were very strong in cities , the GOP in rural areas ; the suburbs were somewhat more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it appears that a majority of voters in only one state chose a senator from a different party than in the presidential race ( Republican Sen. Susan Collins won in Maine , which Biden carried easily . )
In short , what made Tuesday surprising to observers was that the pre-election polls may have understated the size of Red America by a few percentage points nationally and overstated Biden ’ s standing in some swing states .
But an election where Democrats won the popular vote by several million votes but fairly narrowly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 .
The list of states that Biden won but Barack Obama lost in 2012 ( maybe Arizona and maybe Georgia ) is short , as is the list of states that Obama won in 2012 but Biden lost ( Florida , Iowa , Ohio ) .
The election being decided by Pennsylvania , Michigan and Wisconsin was probably what we expected in January 2020 , even though it looked as though Biden could expand the map far beyond that in November 2020 .
Obviously , there were some big shifts in 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lost Georgia by 8 percentage points in 2012 ; Biden is slightly ahead there ( he leads by about 7,000 votes ) .
Four years ago , Trump won about 34 percent of the vote in Miami-Dade County , but around 46 percent this year , a huge increase .
Most importantly , it is very notable , if not surprising , that Trump managed to get nearly universal support from Republican voters and win over nearly half of the total electorate despite his history of breaking with democratic values and his being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more than 235,000 Americans died of COVID-19 .
So , I ’ m not arguing that people should have expected what happened on Tuesday .
I did not .
I expected it to be somewhat clear by 11 p.m. on election night that Biden had won .
I expected Democrats would gain control of the Senate and win House seats .
None of that happened .
I want to know more about what polls may have gotten wrong ( though we ’ ll have to wait for all the votes to be counted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I want to know how the strategies of each party may have affected the results and other factors that may have shaped the election .
Some of the initial post-election criticisms of Democrats and the political media may be right .
But the most obvious conclusion from the 2020 elections is that we are still divided between two entrenched political coalitions in America .
This has basically been true since at least the 2000 elections .
Those two coalitions show up in polling on a ton of issues .
I am not suggesting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ size ( Democrats have won the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections ) .
Nor am I suggesting that these coalitions are permanent and unchanging , or that the parties and candidates can ’ t do things to shift these dynamics .
Maybe Democrats would have done better at the congressional level with different candidates or a different message .
Perhaps Republicans will dominate elections in the future without the unpopular Trump weighing down the party .
Alternatively , perhaps Trump is a uniquely talented politician and Democrats will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he isn ’ t on the ballot .
But I do know that at least 42 states and the clear majority of Americans voted for the same party at the presidential level in 2020 as they did in 2016 .
The most important story may be not what changed electorally in 2020 , but how and why so much did not change .

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

Joe Biden is the apparent winner of Pennsylvania. On Saturday morning, the major networks declared that he had won there, giving him enough electoral votes to become the president-elect. But let’s go back to late Tuesday night for a moment …
Once it was fairly clear that Biden would likely win the presidential election but in more of a drawn-out nail-biter than many polls had suggested, and that Democrats would keep their majority in the U.S. House but lose seats and perhaps not win control of the U.S. Senate, people in the political world started offering their deeper analyses of the 2020 race.
How Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won a historic election | FiveThirtyEight
Many of these arguments focused on flaws or shortcomings in the Democratic approach to 2020 — even though they had just pulled off the somewhat rare feat of unseating an incumbent president. Some analysts argued that Democrats are too liberal, particularly on racial issues; others argued that Democrats are insufficiently liberal, particularly on economic issues. There is renewed criticism that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are bad at crafting a narrative for the party and recruiting candidates for key races. There is frustration that the party is not doing enough to appeal to Hispanic voters.
There are also questions about why polls appeared to understate the depth of Trump’s support (again). And, finally, there are questions once again about whether the broader political media is missing something in telling the story of American politics. After all, the media has often cast Trump as an ineffective president, particularly in dealing with the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, and yet nearly half of the country’s votes were cast for him.
Some of these arguments could be true. All of them could be true (except the mutually exclusive ones). But here’s another take, or perhaps an anti-take: At the least, the unique nature of the vote in 2020 — in particular, that the counting is taking and will take longer than usual — means we won’t know many of these answers for some time. And, moreover, Tuesday wasn’t particularly unusual, at least in the context of modern American electoral politics.
A plurality of Americans, including the vast majority of Asian, Black and Hispanic voters, backed the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. A slightly smaller bloc, including the majority of white Americans and the overwhelming majority of white evangelical Protestants, backed the Republican Party’s candidate. Democrats carried states on the West Coast and in the Northeast, the GOP was dominant in the South and the Great Plains. Democrats were very strong in cities, the GOP in rural areas; the suburbs were somewhat more split. As of right now, it appears that a majority of voters in only one state chose a senator from a different party than in the presidential race (Republican Sen. Susan Collins won in Maine, which Biden carried easily.)
In short, what made Tuesday surprising to observers was that the pre-election polls may have understated the size of Red America by a few percentage points nationally and overstated Biden’s standing in some swing states. But an election where Democrats won the popular vote by several million votes but fairly narrowly won the Electoral College almost happened in 2016. The list of states that Biden won but Barack Obama lost in 2012 (maybe Arizona and maybe Georgia) is short, as is the list of states that Obama won in 2012 but Biden lost (Florida, Iowa, Ohio). The election being decided by Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin was probably what we expected in January 2020, even though it looked as though Biden might expand the map far beyond that in November 2020.
Obviously, there were some big shifts in 2020 compared with past election cycles. Obama lost Georgia by 8 percentage points in 2012; Biden is slightly ahead there. Four years ago, Trump won about 34 percent of the vote in Miami-Dade County, but around 46 percent this year, a huge increase.
Most importantly, it is very notable, if not surprising, that Trump managed to get nearly universal support from Republican voters and win over nearly half of the total electorate despite his history of breaking with democratic values and his being in charge of the U.S. government while more than 235,000 Americans died of COVID-19.
So, I’m not arguing that people should have expected what happened on Tuesday. I did not. I expected it to be somewhat clear by 11 p.m. on election night that Biden had won. I expected Democrats would gain control of the Senate and win House seats. None of that happened. I want to know more about what polls may have gotten wrong (though we’ll have to wait for all the votes to be counted before really diving into that). I want to know how the strategies of each party may have affected the results and other factors that may have shaped the election. Some of the initial post-election criticisms of Democrats and the political media may be right.
But the most obvious conclusion from the 2020 elections is that we are still divided between two entrenched political coalitions in America. This has basically been true since at least the 2000 elections. Those two coalitions show up in polling on a ton of issues. I am not suggesting that these coalitions are of exactly equal size (Democrats have won the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections). Nor am I suggesting that these coalitions are permanent and unchanging, or that the parties and candidates can’t do things to shift these dynamics. Maybe Democrats would have done better at the congressional level with different candidates or a different message. Perhaps Republicans will dominate elections in the future without the unpopular Trump weighing down the party. Alternatively, perhaps Trump is a uniquely talented politician and Democrats will be able to win more elections if he isn’t on the ballot.
I. Don’t. Know.
But I do know that at least 42 states and the clear majority of Americans voted for the same party at the presidential level in 2020 as they did in 2016. The most important story may be not what changed electorally in 2020, but how and why so much did not change.
What Trump revealed about America | FiveThirtyEight