fivethirtyeight--2020-06-26--The Latest Senate Polls Show Some Good News For Democrats

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
In recent days , we ’ ve seen a number of surveys of high-profile Senate contests .
On the whole , the polls indicate Democrats have a real chance of picking up some seats in battleground states .
Some of this is thanks to former Vice President Joe Biden ’ s sizable lead over President Trump ( 9.5 points ) , as the current national environment is very favorable to Democrats .
But remember many races could still go either way .
And the good news for Republicans is that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic-held seat in Alabama and probably don ’ t have to worry too much about losing Kentucky .
With the GOP holding a 53-47 majority in the Senate , Democrats still have to pick up three seats and the vice presidency , or at least four seats without the vice presidency , to take control of the chamber .
Let ’ s start with the Republican-held seats .
Sen. Martha McSally of Arizona has long been endangered , and three new surveys confirm she ’ s in real trouble .
Last week , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ found Democrat Mark Kelly , a retired astronaut , leading McSally 51 percent to 42 percent .
Two additional polls dropped on Thursday : The New York Times/Siena College gave Kelly a 9-point edge , 47 percent to 38 percent , and Redfield & Wilton Strategies found him ahead by 15 points , 49 percent to 34 percent .
Kelly has tended to attract slightly more support than Biden in Arizona — though they were about the same in the Times/Siena poll — and that ’ s an especially good sign for Kelly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ margin there .
In North Carolina , five new polls show Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in a tight race with former Democratic state Sen. Cal Cunningham .
The New York Times/Siena College survey of the race gave Cunningham a slim edge , 42 percent to 39 percent , which echoed another poll released this week — Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling had Cunningham up 44 percent to 40 percent .
( Both leads were inside the polls ’ margin of error . )
And a Fox News poll released Thursday evening put Cunningham @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 37 percent .
However , an OAN/Gravis Marketing poll released last Friday found Tillis with 46 percent support , ahead by 1 point .
And a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll released Thursday morning gave Cunningham a 9-point advantage , 45 percent to 36 percent .
Still , considering Biden is only leading Trump by 3 points in our North Carolina polling average , this race is likely to be very close in November .
Meanwhile , two recent polls in Georgia suggest that Democrats have a chance of capturing a Peach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ found Republican Sen. David Perdue ahead by just 3 points over Democratic nominee Jon Ossoff , 45 percent to 42 percent , while a Public Policy Polling survey gave Ossoff a 1-point lead , 45 percent to 44 percent .
Remember , though , that in Georgia a Senate candidate must win an outright majority or the race will go to a runoff , so there ’ s definitely a possibility that neither Perdue nor Ossoff win a majority ( there ’ s also a Libertarian candidate running ) .
No news on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which is a special election with a jungle primary that will also take place this November , though that contest will likely go to a January runoff .
In Kentucky , though , GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will be heavily favored against whomever the Democrats choose ( the results of Kentucky ’ s Democratic primary won ’ t be known until next week . )
A Civiqs survey from the week of June 13 found McConnell led Democratic state Rep. Charles Booker by 14 points , 52 percent to 38 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2018 congressional candidate Amy McGrath by 20 points , 53 percent to 33 percent .
The poll also found Trump ahead of Biden by 20 points , so the president ’ s big advantage should help McConnell down-ballot .
But Republicans aren ’ t the only ones playing defense .
Democrats also have to defend a couple of seats in states that Trump carried in 2016 — most notably Alabama .
Democratic Sen. Doug Jones has long been seen as the most vulnerable Senate incumbent up in 2020 , but on Monday , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ May that had him down just 3 points , 44 percent to 47 percent , against former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville , who is seen as the favorite over former Senator and Attorney General Jeff Sessions in the July GOP primary runoff .
Of course , this was an internal poll , so take it with a grain of salt , and a mid-June poll from GOP pollster Cygnal painted a much different picture .
It put Tuberville ahead of Jones by 14 points , 50 percent to 36 percent , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent to 35 percent .
The Jones campaign is arguing that Jones ’ s lead could have grown since their poll , especially since Biden ’ s standing has improved in Alabama , but in all likelihood , Jones is still a serious underdog .
After all , Trump still leads Biden by 15 points in our polling average and is likely to win Alabama by the double-digits in November .
Finally , we also have five fresh surveys from Michigan , where Democratic Sen. Gary Peters faces Republican John James , an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s 2018 Senate race , but still performed fairly well in a Democratic-leaning environment .
Yet the numbers now mostly augur well for Peters .
Thursday ’ s New York Times/Siena College poll put Peters ahead by 10 points , 41 percent to 31 percent while Redfield & Wilton Strategies had him up by 18 points , 50 percent to 32 percent .
And Peters also had double-digit leads in two polls conducted on behalf of right-leaning sponsors : The conservative Restoration PAC and GOP pollster Hodas & Associates put a poll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 13 points , 51 percent to 38 percent , while a survey released last week by TIPP on behalf of conservative outlet American Greatness found Peters up by 12 points , 47 percent to 35 percent .
Plus , Marketing Resource Group also released a poll last week that found Peters ahead by 6 points , albeit only 36 percent to 30 percent , with 14 percent preferring “ someone else ” and 18 percent undecided .
Bottom line : Peters seems to be cruising toward reelection , buoyed by the fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points in our Michigan polling average .
It ’ s too early to say that Democrats can take back the Senate , but if the national environment remains this favorable for Democrats , they ’ ll certainly stand a pretty good chance of regaining control in November .
• A new survey from Morning Consult found that 80 percent of Americans believe it ’ s “ very ” or “ somewhat ” likely that a second wave of coronavirus cases will hit in the next year .
Respondents were split as to whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impact of a second wave — 42 percent said yes , 45 percent no .
But only 33 percent agreed that the country was ready to handle the economic impacts of a second wave , while 53 percent disagreed .
• A new poll from Axios/Ipsos suggests that comfort with getting a haircut might signal how safe the public feels about coronavirus cases in their state .
In states where the number of new cases decreased from June 9 to 16 , the share of respondents getting their hair cut increased from 10 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states where there was at least a 50 percent increase in new cases , the share of respondents who visited a hair salon fell from 19 percent to 13 percent .
States with small increases in cases saw the share visiting a hair salon stay at 18 percent .
• A record-high share of Americans — 40 percent — view the death penalty as “ morally wrong , ” according to a new poll from Gallup .
Fifty-four percent still said it was morally acceptable , but that ’ s the lowest share @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2001 .
The drop in support was driven largely by liberals and moderates , who expressed new lows in approval — 37 percent and 56 percent , respectively .
• NFL players kneeling during the national anthem to protest racism was once pretty unpopular , but as support for the Black Lives Matter movement has increased in recent weeks , fewer Americans think these protests are unacceptable .
A new survey from YouGov found that 51 percent now support sports leagues substituting the phrase “ Black Lives Matter ” in place of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jerseys .
Only 35 percent opposed the idea , but there was a sizable partisan gap : 73 percent of Democrats approved of this compared to just 22 percent of Republicans .
• Following the U.S. Supreme Court ’ s ruling that protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination , the Kaiser Family Foundation found that about 9 in 10 Americans think it should be illegal for employers to fire or refuse to hire individuals because of their sexual orientation or gender identity .
Additionally , the poll found that most respondents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lesbian , gay or bisexual face widespread discrimination — 79 percent and 74 percent , respectively .
• The Senate has been unable to pass a police reform bill , but majorities of Democratic and Republican voters back reforms like banning chokeholds , training police on de-escalation , creating a national database of police disciplinary records and banning or increasing regulations on no-knock warrants , according to a new survey from Morning Consult .
Asked about specific reform plans from House Democrats and Senate Republicans , 48 percent of respondents felt the Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warrants — appropriately addressed police reform , while only 33 percent said the same for the GOP proposal ( which discourages the use of chokeholds and no-knock warrants , but doesn ’ t ban them outright ) .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 40.6 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president , while 55.2 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -14.6 points ) .
At this time last week , 41.2 percent approved and 55.2 percent disapproved ( a net approval rating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago , Trump had an approval rating of 42.7 percent and a disapproval rating of 53.5 percent , for a net approval rating of -10.7 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 8.1 percentage points ( 48.7 percent to 40.6 percent ) .
A week ago , Democrats led Republicans by 7.9 points ( 48.6 percent to 40.7 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters also preferred Democrats by 8.0 points ( 48.2 percent to 40.2 percent ) .

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
In recent days, we’ve seen a number of surveys of high-profile Senate contests. On the whole, the polls indicate Democrats have a real chance of picking up some seats in battleground states. Some of this is thanks to former Vice President Joe Biden’s sizable lead over President Trump (9.5 points), as the current national environment is very favorable to Democrats.
But remember many races could still go either way. And the good news for Republicans is that they’re favored to pick up a Democratic-held seat in Alabama and probably don’t have to worry too much about losing Kentucky. With the GOP holding a 53-47 majority in the Senate, Democrats still have to pick up three seats and the vice presidency, or at least four seats without the vice presidency, to take control of the chamber.
Let’s start with the Republican-held seats. Sen. Martha McSally of Arizona has long been endangered, and three new surveys confirm she’s in real trouble. Last week, Democratic pollster Civiqs released a poll that found Democrat Mark Kelly, a retired astronaut, leading McSally 51 percent to 42 percent. Two additional polls dropped on Thursday: The New York Times/Siena College gave Kelly a 9-point edge, 47 percent to 38 percent, and Redfield & Wilton Strategies found him ahead by 15 points, 49 percent to 34 percent. Kelly has tended to attract slightly more support than Biden in Arizona — though they were about the same in the Times/Siena poll — and that’s an especially good sign for Kelly as Biden has led by a small margin there.
In North Carolina, five new polls show Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in a tight race with former Democratic state Sen. Cal Cunningham. The New York Times/Siena College survey of the race gave Cunningham a slim edge, 42 percent to 39 percent, which echoed another poll released this week — Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling had Cunningham up 44 percent to 40 percent. (Both leads were inside the polls’ margin of error.) And a Fox News poll released Thursday evening put Cunningham ahead by 2 points, 39 percent to 37 percent. However, an OAN/Gravis Marketing poll released last Friday found Tillis with 46 percent support, ahead by 1 point. And a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll released Thursday morning gave Cunningham a 9-point advantage, 45 percent to 36 percent. Still, considering Biden is only leading Trump by 3 points in our North Carolina polling average, this race is likely to be very close in November.
Meanwhile, two recent polls in Georgia suggest that Democrats have a chance of capturing a Peach State seat. A Fox News survey found Republican Sen. David Perdue ahead by just 3 points over Democratic nominee Jon Ossoff, 45 percent to 42 percent, while a Public Policy Polling survey gave Ossoff a 1-point lead, 45 percent to 44 percent. Remember, though, that in Georgia a Senate candidate must win an outright majority or the race will go to a runoff, so there’s definitely a possibility that neither Perdue nor Ossoff win a majority (there’s also a Libertarian candidate running). No news on the state’s other Senate seat, which is a special election with a jungle primary that will also take place this November, though that contest will likely go to a January runoff.
In Kentucky, though, GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will be heavily favored against whomever the Democrats choose (the results of Kentucky’s Democratic primary won’t be known until next week.) A Civiqs survey from the week of June 13 found McConnell led Democratic state Rep. Charles Booker by 14 points, 52 percent to 38 percent, and former fighter pilot and 2018 congressional candidate Amy McGrath by 20 points, 53 percent to 33 percent. The poll also found Trump ahead of Biden by 20 points, so the president’s big advantage should help McConnell down-ballot.
But Republicans aren’t the only ones playing defense. Democrats also have to defend a couple of seats in states that Trump carried in 2016 — most notably Alabama. Democratic Sen. Doug Jones has long been seen as the most vulnerable Senate incumbent up in 2020, but on Monday, his campaign released an internal poll from May that had him down just 3 points, 44 percent to 47 percent, against former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, who is seen as the favorite over former Senator and Attorney General Jeff Sessions in the July GOP primary runoff.
Of course, this was an internal poll, so take it with a grain of salt, and a mid-June poll from GOP pollster Cygnal painted a much different picture. It put Tuberville ahead of Jones by 14 points, 50 percent to 36 percent, and Sessions ahead by 10 points, 45 percent to 35 percent. The Jones campaign is arguing that Jones’s lead could have grown since their poll, especially since Biden’s standing has improved in Alabama, but in all likelihood, Jones is still a serious underdog. After all, Trump still leads Biden by 15 points in our polling average and is likely to win Alabama by the double-digits in November.
Finally, we also have five fresh surveys from Michigan, where Democratic Sen. Gary Peters faces Republican John James, an Army veteran. James lost the state’s 2018 Senate race, but still performed fairly well in a Democratic-leaning environment. Yet the numbers now mostly augur well for Peters. Thursday’s New York Times/Siena College poll put Peters ahead by 10 points, 41 percent to 31 percent while Redfield & Wilton Strategies had him up by 18 points, 50 percent to 32 percent. And Peters also had double-digit leads in two polls conducted on behalf of right-leaning sponsors: The conservative Restoration PAC and GOP pollster Hodas & Associates put a poll out on Thursday that had Peters ahead by 13 points, 51 percent to 38 percent, while a survey released last week by TIPP on behalf of conservative outlet American Greatness found Peters up by 12 points, 47 percent to 35 percent. Plus, Marketing Resource Group also released a poll last week that found Peters ahead by 6 points, albeit only 36 percent to 30 percent, with 14 percent preferring “someone else” and 18 percent undecided. Bottom line: Peters seems to be cruising toward reelection, buoyed by the fact that Biden leads Trump by about 11 points in our Michigan polling average.
It’s too early to say that Democrats can take back the Senate, but if the national environment remains this favorable for Democrats, they’ll certainly stand a pretty good chance of regaining control in November.
Other polling bites
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 40.6 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 55.2 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -14.6 points). At this time last week, 41.2 percent approved and 55.2 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -14.0 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 42.7 percent and a disapproval rating of 53.5 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.7 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 8.1 percentage points (48.7 percent to 40.6 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7.9 points (48.6 percent to 40.7 percent). At this time last month, voters also preferred Democrats by 8.0 points (48.2 percent to 40.2 percent).


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-26--How The Pandemic Is Already Affecting The Election

On this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , we analyze data showing that the number of people registering to @ @ @ @ @ cliff during the coronavirus pandemic and discuss what that means for the November election .

On this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic and discuss what that means for the November election.


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-26--Politics Podcast: New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19

At the start of the year , new voter registrations were up compared with early 2016 numbers , but as @ @ @ @ @ the country , new registrations plummeted .
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast @ @ @ @ @ Rogers discuss the data they analyzed showing the drop-off and explain what happened .
They @ @ @ @ @ impact the pandemic has made on Americans ’ ability to cast ballots during the primaries @ @ @ @ @ the episode by clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player above or @ @ @ @ @ , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to @ @ @ @ @ listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover @ @ @ @ @ a rating and review on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for @ @ @ @ @ polling ” ?
Get in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments @

At the start of the year, new voter registrations were up compared with early 2016 numbers, but as the coronavirus pandemic spread across the country, new registrations plummeted. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers discuss the data they analyzed showing the drop-off and explain what happened. They also take stock of the impact the pandemic has made on Americans’ ability to cast ballots during the primaries.
New voter registrations have nosedived during COVID-19
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-29--How Arizona Became A Swing State

How Arizona Became A Swing State

This is the first in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020 ’ s expected swing states .
For years , Arizona was to Democrats what Lucy ’ s football was to Charlie Brown .
Despite candidates from Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton investing in the state , no Democratic presidential candidate has carried it since Bill Clinton in 1996 .
In fact , no Democrat won a statewide election in Arizona on any level after 2008 until 2018 , despite numerous close calls .
In the 2008 and 2012 presidential races , the state was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than the country as a whole , respectively .
But in 2016 , President Trump won Arizona by only 4 points , making the state just 6 points more Republican-leaning than the nation .
And in 2018 , four Democratic candidates broke through and won statewide , including Sen. Kyrsten Sinema .
Now , in 2020 , Joe Biden looks like he has a chance to actually win Arizona ’ s 11 electoral votes .
As of June 29 , Biden led Trump by 4.7 points in our Arizona polling average .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate seat here too , as Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Sen. Martha McSally by double digits in numerous polls .
Much of that is because of an extremely pro-Democratic national environment ; according to our polling averages , Arizona is still a bit more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole ( 4.6 points more Republican-leaning , to be precise ) .
But if the final election results were to exactly match our current polling averages , it would still represent the third consecutive presidential election where Arizona has moved left .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ people have been predicting a blue Arizona for years : Latino voters .
Along with the state ’ s small Black and Native American populations , Latinos constitute the Democratic base in Arizona .
In 2016 , a precinct-level regression analysis estimated that Clinton won more than 80 percent of the Latino vote in Arizona .
And according to an analysis from the Center for American Progress , the share of eligible Latinos who voted also increased from 37 percent in 2012 to 42 percent in 2016 .
And Arizona ’ s Latino @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gone from 25 percent to 31 percent Latino since 2000 .
That said , the white population share in Arizona is still much higher ( currently 55 percent ) .
And many of Arizona ’ s Latinos are ineligible to vote : Among U.S. citizens who are 18 and older , white people are 65 percent of the population and Hispanic or Latino people only 23 percent .
Worst of all for Democrats , low turnout rates mean Latinos constitute an even smaller share of the actual electorate : According to the CAP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 73 percent white and only 17 percent Latino .
So this trend alone doesn ’ t explain Arizona ’ s sudden competitiveness , even though the Latino share of the electorate is slowly but surely increasing ( it rose by 2 points from 2012 to 2016 ) .
The bigger factor at play is one that is not unique to Arizona , either : The movement of suburban voters from Republicans to Democrats since the 2016 election .
Politically , culturally and economically , Arizona is dominated by Maricopa County , which covers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In the last several elections , Maricopa has consistently accounted for about 60 percent of the votes cast in Arizona , which means that the candidate who wins Maricopa usually wins Arizona .
And for years , it was a Republican .
Unlike in many states , the most Democratic parts of Arizona actually lay outside its biggest metropolis : Apache County ( which includes much of the Navajo Nation and is 75 percent Native American ) , Coconino County ( home of Flagstaff ) , Pima County ( home of Tucson ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , rural county that is 83 percent Latino ) .
As a result , Democrats consistently did better in the rest of Arizona than they did in Maricopa — where most of the votes were .
Clinton lost Maricopa County by just 3 points ( 48 percent to 45 percent ) , a drastic improvement from the last four Democratic presidential candidates .
And , notably , she became the first Democratic presidential candidate since at least 1960 to do better in Maricopa than she did in the rest of the state ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Sinema made even more inroads in 2018 : She won Maricopa County 51 percent to 47 percent while losing the rest of the state 49 percent to 48 percent .
In other words , Maricopa County was the reason Arizona voted Democratic in 2018 .
Because of its size , Maricopa is home to all sorts of areas , from heavily Latino and Black South Phoenix to historically Mormon Mesa to the college town of Tempe to retirement communities like Sun City .
But the county ’ s transformation has been led @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Scottsdale and Paradise Valley .
According to data from Daily Kos Elections , the state legislative districts where Clinton improved on Obama ’ s performance the most also tended to be highly college-educated and have high median incomes .
Basically , Arizona ’ s urban vs. rural divide is deepening , just like the rest of the nation ’ s .
But because Arizona is one of the most urbanized states in the country , that ’ s a good trade for Democrats .
In fact , according to an analysis based on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arizona ’ s density had been the only factor in how it voted , it would have voted for Clinton by 6 points .
And that may happen for Biden this year .
Since March , Biden has held a small but consistent lead over Trump in polls there .
Most recently , a poll by Siena College/The New York Times Upshot — one of the best pollsters in the business — gave him a 7-point lead among registered voters ( although this will probably shrink among likely voters ) .
But for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Party ’ s newfound suburban strength , combined with the gradual growth of Arizona ’ s Latino population , is finally putting the Grand Canyon State in play .

This is the first in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states.
For years, Arizona was to Democrats what Lucy’s football was to Charlie Brown. Despite candidates from Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton investing in the state, no Democratic presidential candidate has carried it since Bill Clinton in 1996. In fact, no Democrat won a statewide election in Arizona on any level after 2008 until 2018, despite numerous close calls.
But Arizona is changing.
[Related: Can We Tell Which States Will Be Swing States In November?]
In the 2008 and 2012 presidential races, the state was 16 points and 13 points more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole, respectively. But in 2016, President Trump won Arizona by only 4 points, making the state just 6 points more Republican-leaning than the nation. And in 2018, four Democratic candidates broke through and won statewide, including Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
Now, in 2020, Joe Biden looks like he has a chance to actually win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes. As of June 29, Biden led Trump by 4.7 points in our Arizona polling average. And it looks like Democrats could flip another Senate seat here too, as Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Sen. Martha McSally by double digits in numerous polls.
Much of that is because of an extremely pro-Democratic national environment; according to our polling averages, Arizona is still a bit more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole (4.6 points more Republican-leaning, to be precise). But if the final election results were to exactly match our current polling averages, it would still represent the third consecutive presidential election where Arizona has moved left.
So what’s driving this shift?
[Related: Our 2020 National Polling Averages]
Part of it is the same reason people have been predicting a blue Arizona for years: Latino voters. Along with the state’s small Black and Native American populations, Latinos constitute the Democratic base in Arizona. In 2016, a precinct-level regression analysis estimated that Clinton won more than 80 percent of the Latino vote in Arizona. And according to an analysis from the Center for American Progress, the share of eligible Latinos who voted also increased from 37 percent in 2012 to 42 percent in 2016.
And Arizona’s Latino population is swelling. The state has gone from 25 percent to 31 percent Latino since 2000. That said, the white population share in Arizona is still much higher (currently 55 percent). And many of Arizona’s Latinos are ineligible to vote: Among U.S. citizens who are 18 and older, white people are 65 percent of the population and Hispanic or Latino people only 23 percent. Worst of all for Democrats, low turnout rates mean Latinos constitute an even smaller share of the actual electorate: According to the CAP analysis, 2016 voters in Arizona were 73 percent white and only 17 percent Latino.
So this trend alone doesn’t explain Arizona’s sudden competitiveness, even though the Latino share of the electorate is slowly but surely increasing (it rose by 2 points from 2012 to 2016). The bigger factor at play is one that is not unique to Arizona, either: The movement of suburban voters from Republicans to Democrats since the 2016 election.
Politically, culturally and economically, Arizona is dominated by Maricopa County, which covers Phoenix and its sprawling metropolitan area. In the last several elections, Maricopa has consistently accounted for about 60 percent of the votes cast in Arizona, which means that the candidate who wins Maricopa usually wins Arizona.
[Related: Arizona’s Political Geography]
And for years, it was a Republican. Unlike in many states, the most Democratic parts of Arizona actually lay outside its biggest metropolis: Apache County (which includes much of the Navajo Nation and is 75 percent Native American), Coconino County (home of Flagstaff), Pima County (home of Tucson) and Santa Cruz County (a poor, rural county that is 83 percent Latino). As a result, Democrats consistently did better in the rest of Arizona than they did in Maricopa — where most of the votes were.
Until 2016.
Hillary Clinton made huge strides in Maricopa County How Maricopa County voted compared with the rest of Arizona in the last five presidential elections Election Maricopa County Rest of Arizona Gap 2000 R+10 EVEN R+10 2004 R+15 R+4 R+10 2008 R+11 R+6 R+5 2012 R+11 R+7 R+4 2016 R+3 R+5 D+2 Source: Arizona Secretary of State
Clinton lost Maricopa County by just 3 points (48 percent to 45 percent), a drastic improvement from the last four Democratic presidential candidates. And, notably, she became the first Democratic presidential candidate since at least 1960 to do better in Maricopa than she did in the rest of the state (where she lost by 5 points). Sinema made even more inroads in 2018: She won Maricopa County 51 percent to 47 percent while losing the rest of the state 49 percent to 48 percent. In other words, Maricopa County was the reason Arizona voted Democratic in 2018.
Because of its size, Maricopa is home to all sorts of areas, from heavily Latino and Black South Phoenix to historically Mormon Mesa to the college town of Tempe to retirement communities like Sun City. But the county’s transformation has been led by upper-class suburban enclaves like Ahwatukee, Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. According to data from Daily Kos Elections, the state legislative districts where Clinton improved on Obama’s performance the most also tended to be highly college-educated and have high median incomes.
[Related: How Urban Or Rural Is Your State? And What Does That Mean For The 2020 Election?]
Basically, Arizona’s urban vs. rural divide is deepening, just like the rest of the nation’s. But because Arizona is one of the most urbanized states in the country, that’s a good trade for Democrats. In fact, according to an analysis based on FiveThirtyEight’s urbanization index, if Arizona’s density had been the only factor in how it voted, it would have voted for Clinton by 6 points.
And that may happen for Biden this year. Since March, Biden has held a small but consistent lead over Trump in polls there. Most recently, a poll by Siena College/The New York Times Upshot — one of the best pollsters in the business — gave him a 7-point lead among registered voters (although this will probably shrink among likely voters). But for now, it looks like the Democratic Party’s newfound suburban strength, combined with the gradual growth of Arizona’s Latino population, is finally putting the Grand Canyon State in play.
‘Trump’s getting into underdog territory’: Nate Silver


fivethirtyeight--2020-07-01--What Went Down In Colorado, Oklahoma And Utah

Colorado , Oklahoma and Utah held primaries on Tuesday , and with the help of mail-in balloting and absentee ballots , these states largely held seamless elections .
The contests in these states helped decide the nominees in a pivotal Senate race and a handful of competitive House districts , shaping the November matchups that will play a role in deciding which party controls Congress .
One other state — Kentucky — also reported results from the primary it held last week ; for New York , we ’ re going to have to wait a little while longer on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , former Gov .
John Hickenlooper defeated former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff by nearly 20 points , 59.6 percent to 40.4 percent .
Hickenlooper had been a heavy favorite from when he first entered the race last summer , but a number of missteps in recent weeks , including saying “ every life matters ” in response to a question on what Black Lives Matter means to him , gave Romanoff a possible opening .
Romanoff tried to run to Hickenlooper ’ s left by embracing a progressive agenda — including support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hickenlooper opposes — but his campaign just didn ’ t catch on .
So now Hickenlooper , who once said , “ I ’ m not cut out to be a senator , ” starts the general election campaign as a slight favorite against Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in a state that will likely back Joe Biden in November .
The GOP primary in Colorado ’ s 3rd Congressional District was more of a surprise , however , with President Trump ’ s backed candidate Rep. Scott Tipton losing to restauranteur Lauren Boebert @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 45.4 percent .
Tipton is now the fourth House incumbent to lose renomination this year , and his defeat could make this Republican-leaning seat — Trump won it by 12 points in 2016 , according to Daily Kos Elections — highly competitive in November .
Boebert ran to the right of Tipton , drawing on her background as a gun-rights activist ( she runs a restaurant where servers are allowed to openly carry firearms ) .
But she ’ s raised very little money so far , and has attracted controversy for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ movement labeled a domestic terrorist threat by the FBI last year that promotes false conspiracy theories .
So Boebert may struggle to turn her upset primary victory into real traction in the general election .
Democrats have nominated former state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush , hoping she can win after losing to Tipton by 8 points in 2018 .
Next door in Utah , the marquee race was the GOP primary for governor , and it lived up to the hype — as of 8 a.m. eastern , there is still no call @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leads former Gov .
Jon Huntsman by around 3 points , 37.0 percent to 34.3 percent , and former state House Speaker Greg Hughes in third with 20.7 percent .
We may not know the final result for a few days either .
Due to the coronavirus pandemic , voters could postmark their ballots on Election Day — normally they have to do so the day before — and counties are quarantining mail ballots for 24 hours before counting them , so last-minute votes won ’ t be immediately counted as they arrive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cox or Huntsman — the victor will almost certainly be the next governor in this strongly Republican state .
Down the ballot in Utah , the crowded 1st Congressional District Republican primary also remains uncalled as businessman Blake Moore holds a razor-thin edge over Davis County Commissioner Bob Stevenson , 30.2 percent to 29.6 percent .
And similar to the gubernatorial contest , the winner of this primary will also likely win the deep red seat in November .
There was less drama in Utah ’ s 4th Congressional District GOP race , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Owens defeated state Rep. Kim Coleman and two other candidates , winning 44 percent of the vote based on partial results .
Owens will now face Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams in a competitive but traditionally Republican-leaning seat in November , where election handicappers give McAdams a small early advantage .
In Oklahoma , the main event of the evening was a ballot measure on whether to expand Medicaid .
The final margin was slim , 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent voted in favor , but with its passage , at least 200,000 more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefits .
Just 13 states have now not expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act .
As for Oklahoma ’ s most notable race of the evening — the Republican primary in the 5th Congressional District — no candidate won a majority , so there will now be an Aug. 25 runoff between businesswoman Terry Neese and state Sen. Stephanie Bice .
Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn is an endangered Democrat , too , having pulled off an upset victory in 2018 in a seat Trump carried by 13 points in 2016 .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ themselves in a competitive race with Horn .
Either Neese or Bice would help the GOP increase its slim share of women representatives , too .
At present , only 13 of the 197 Republicans in the House are women .
[ Related : Elections In Kentucky And New York Are High-Stakes For The Progressive Movement ] Kentucky also reported results yesterday after delaying the full release of returns from its June 23 primary because of a huge number of absentee ballots , and in its marquee race , the Democratic primary for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showed a very close race .
Former fighter pilot and 2018 congressional candidate Amy McGrath only narrowly edged out progressive state Rep. Charles Booker by about 3 points , 45.4 percent to 42.6 percent .
McGrath was able to hold on despite Booker ’ s surge in the final days of the campaign , but considering the $ 41 million she raised ahead of the primary , her showing was a bit underwhelming .
She now heads to the general election as a significant underdog against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell .
As @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a delayed June 23 primary count , we ’ ll have to wait a bit longer for results .
Election officials said they won ’ t begin counting absentee ballots until today , and some counting will be delayed until after the July 4 holiday weekend .
This leaves a number of important Democratic House primaries in doubt for a little while longer .
But overall , the June 30 primaries seem to have avoided any major hiccups .
Colorado and Utah both have traditions of vote-by-mail elections , so they were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ midst of the coronavirus pandemic .
They also took additional precautions like ballot quarantining in Utah .
Oklahoma still relied heavily on in-person voting , but they took a number of precautionary measures , such as social distancing and personal protective equipment at polling places .
The state board of elections also sent out a record-number of absentee ballots .
It ’ s unclear how this would scale for November or work elsewhere , but at least there were some signs on Tuesday that elections in the midst of a public health crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Podcast : Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas

Colorado, Oklahoma and Utah held primaries on Tuesday, and with the help of mail-in balloting and absentee ballots, these states largely held seamless elections. The contests in these states helped decide the nominees in a pivotal Senate race and a handful of competitive House districts, shaping the November matchups that will play a role in deciding which party controls Congress. One other state — Kentucky — also reported results from the primary it held last week; for New York, we’re going to have to wait a little while longer on full results.
First up in Colorado, former Gov. John Hickenlooper defeated former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff by nearly 20 points, 59.6 percent to 40.4 percent. Hickenlooper had been a heavy favorite from when he first entered the race last summer, but a number of missteps in recent weeks, including saying “every life matters” in response to a question on what Black Lives Matter means to him, gave Romanoff a possible opening. Romanoff tried to run to Hickenlooper’s left by embracing a progressive agenda — including support for the Green New Deal, which Hickenlooper opposes — but his campaign just didn’t catch on. So now Hickenlooper, who once said, “I’m not cut out to be a senator,” starts the general election campaign as a slight favorite against Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in a state that will likely back Joe Biden in November.
[Related: Our 2020 National Polling Averages]
The GOP primary in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District was more of a surprise, however, with President Trump’s backed candidate Rep. Scott Tipton losing to restauranteur Lauren Boebert by about 9 points, 54.6 percent to 45.4 percent. Tipton is now the fourth House incumbent to lose renomination this year, and his defeat could make this Republican-leaning seat — Trump won it by 12 points in 2016, according to Daily Kos Elections — highly competitive in November. Boebert ran to the right of Tipton, drawing on her background as a gun-rights activist (she runs a restaurant where servers are allowed to openly carry firearms). But she’s raised very little money so far, and has attracted controversy for her views on QAnon, a far-right movement labeled a domestic terrorist threat by the FBI last year that promotes false conspiracy theories. So Boebert may struggle to turn her upset primary victory into real traction in the general election. Democrats have nominated former state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush, hoping she can win after losing to Tipton by 8 points in 2018.
Next door in Utah, the marquee race was the GOP primary for governor, and it lived up to the hype — as of 8 a.m. eastern, there is still no call. Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox narrowly leads former Gov. Jon Huntsman by around 3 points, 37.0 percent to 34.3 percent, and former state House Speaker Greg Hughes in third with 20.7 percent. We may not know the final result for a few days either. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, voters could postmark their ballots on Election Day — normally they have to do so the day before — and counties are quarantining mail ballots for 24 hours before counting them, so last-minute votes won’t be immediately counted as they arrive. But regardless of who wins — Cox or Huntsman — the victor will almost certainly be the next governor in this strongly Republican state.
[Related: How Popular Is President Donald Trump?]
Down the ballot in Utah, the crowded 1st Congressional District Republican primary also remains uncalled as businessman Blake Moore holds a razor-thin edge over Davis County Commissioner Bob Stevenson, 30.2 percent to 29.6 percent. And similar to the gubernatorial contest, the winner of this primary will also likely win the deep red seat in November. There was less drama in Utah’s 4th Congressional District GOP race, however, where former NFL player Burgess Owens defeated state Rep. Kim Coleman and two other candidates, winning 44 percent of the vote based on partial results. Owens will now face Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams in a competitive but traditionally Republican-leaning seat in November, where election handicappers give McAdams a small early advantage.
In Oklahoma, the main event of the evening was a ballot measure on whether to expand Medicaid. The final margin was slim, 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent voted in favor, but with its passage, at least 200,000 more Oklahomans will now be eligible for Medicaid benefits. Just 13 states have now not expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. As for Oklahoma’s most notable race of the evening — the Republican primary in the 5th Congressional District — no candidate won a majority, so there will now be an Aug. 25 runoff between businesswoman Terry Neese and state Sen. Stephanie Bice. Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn is an endangered Democrat, too, having pulled off an upset victory in 2018 in a seat Trump carried by 13 points in 2016. So either Neese or Bice will likely find themselves in a competitive race with Horn. Either Neese or Bice would help the GOP increase its slim share of women representatives, too. At present, only 13 of the 197 Republicans in the House are women.
[Related: Elections In Kentucky And New York Are High-Stakes For The Progressive Movement]
Kentucky also reported results yesterday after delaying the full release of returns from its June 23 primary because of a huge number of absentee ballots, and in its marquee race, the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, the final results showed a very close race. Former fighter pilot and 2018 congressional candidate Amy McGrath only narrowly edged out progressive state Rep. Charles Booker by about 3 points, 45.4 percent to 42.6 percent. McGrath was able to hold on despite Booker’s surge in the final days of the campaign, but considering the $41 million she raised ahead of the primary, her showing was a bit underwhelming. She now heads to the general election as a significant underdog against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
As for New York, the other state with a delayed June 23 primary count, we’ll have to wait a bit longer for results. Election officials said they won’t begin counting absentee ballots until today, and some counting will be delayed until after the July 4 holiday weekend. This leaves a number of important Democratic House primaries in doubt for a little while longer.
But overall, the June 30 primaries seem to have avoided any major hiccups. Colorado and Utah both have traditions of vote-by-mail elections, so they were well-equipped to hold a primary in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. They also took additional precautions like ballot quarantining in Utah. Oklahoma still relied heavily on in-person voting, but they took a number of precautionary measures, such as social distancing and personal protective equipment at polling places. The state board of elections also sent out a record-number of absentee ballots. It’s unclear how this would scale for November or work elsewhere, but at least there were some signs on Tuesday that elections in the midst of a public health crisis can be held successfully.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas


fivethirtyeight--2020-07-01--Charles Booker, Jamaal Bowman And The 7 Competing Camps In Black Politics

New York ’ s Jamaal Bowman and Kentucky ’ s Charles Booker , two Black men running on very liberal policy platforms , likely defeated and nearly defeated ( respectively ) white Democrats in primaries last week , giving a boost to the party ’ s insurgent wing .
Neither Bowman nor Booker got much help from the party elite — unsurprising , as they were running against establishment-backed figures — and also did not get much help from powerful Black officials in the Democratic Party .
Sen. Bernie Sanders , Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Booker @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but Sens .
Cory Booker and Kamala Harris didn ’ t .
Members of the Congressional Black Caucus interjected themselves into Bowman ’ s race — to endorse the longtime incumbent , Rep. Eliot Engel .
Speaking of Harris , she seems like a fairly logical choice to be presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden ’ s running mate .
But it probably doesn ’ t help her that some more liberal Black Democrats , such as Wisconsin Lt. Gov .
Mandela Barnes , are publicly suggesting that they might prefer Warren for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s not surprising that prominent Black political figures aren ’ t aligned on every issue — and there ’ s nothing new about that at all .
But these particular divides are illustrative of major shifts happening within Black politics , by which I largely mean the world of activists , elected officials and other power brokers in the United States who are Black .
We are in an era where one man ( Barack Obama ) is no longer the center of Black politics .
So among the major power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black Lives Matter that is as skeptical of Black elected officials as non-Black ones ; a rising left wing of the Democratic Party that includes many Black voices ; and a Black establishment that is arguably more powerful than ever before on Capitol Hill .
There are now , in my view , at least seven fairly distinct camps among Black political figures — concentrated in the Democratic Party but also stretching into the GOP .
These groupings — which come from my own reporting and talking to experts , rather than any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But the idea is to explain some common patterns and themes we are seeing , not necessarily to perfectly describe the politics of any particular person or faction in the party .
I should also emphasize that these camps do not correspond exactly to rank-and-file Black voters , although I will talk about some places where there is overlap between activists and voters .
I have tried to order the camps by size , from largest to smallest .
They are : • Geography : Members often represent areas with large Black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • Ideology : Fairly liberal , but somewhat wary of ideas like cutting police or military funding , the Green New Deal and Medicare for All ; more aligned with business interests than some more progressive Democrats would prefer .
Many of the Black figures who entered electoral politics amid the Civil Rights activism of the 1960s and 70s have retired or passed away .
They have largely been replaced by a younger cohort — at least relative to other elected officials — that is not on the streets protesting but instead trying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rights generation made once they got into office .
This group , trying to maintain and grow its power , tends to align with the Democratic Party ’ s existing powerbrokers .
So Bottoms and Richmond endorsed Biden very early in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary , even as other Black political figures waited to see if Booker or Harris ’ s campaigns would take off .
Bottoms ’ s early endorsement is reportedly one reason that Biden is considering the Atlanta mayor to be his running mate .
Bowser endorsed Michael Bloomberg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ figure who spent much of his campaign under attack for supporting aggressive policing policies during his time as mayor of New York that disproportionately affected Black people .
This younger establishment group is wary of the more progressive , anti-establishment parts of the Democratic Party .
From the younger Black establishment ’ s perspective , Black politicians had to fight hard to gain a real foothold in the Democratic Party as it is structured now , and that standing should not be taken for granted .
So members of this bloc tend to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even white ones , as attacks on them .
And the young establishment is fighting back .
Jeffries cast his endorsement of Engel over Bowman in terms of loyalty to Engel , a longtime New York political figure with a liberal voting record .
But Jeffries ’ s backing of Engel was also another round in the moderate vs. left-wing fights that are happening in New York and Washington politics that feature Jeffries on one side and Ocasio-Cortez on the other .
These fights cut across racial lines and include Black and non-Black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic Party remains largely dominated by its more moderate wing , Black officials in the younger establishment are likely to see their clout grow .
Keep an eye on Jeffries in particular — he is one of the leading candidates to become the top Democrat in the House whenever Pelosi steps down .
The Older ( 60 And Above ) Establishment • Geography : Often represent heavily Black areas and/or areas in the South .
• Ideology : Similar to the younger establishment , perhaps even more wary of very liberal ideas .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s endorsement of Biden was the defining event of the Democratic primary , leading to Biden winning South Carolina ’ s Black voters , and therefore the state , by a huge margin .
That victory seemed to catapult Biden to the nomination .
An alternative explanation might be that Black voters in South Carolina and throughout the South were already fairly hesitant about Sanders becoming the Democratic nominee ( see the 2016 primary ) , and Clyburn was just echoing a sentiment he was hearing from his constituents that was then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ alternative explanations — and perhaps there is truth in both — point to the importance and power of Black officials in the older establishment : This group both represents the existing views of older Black voters but probably also helps mold those views .
And older Black voters vote at higher rates than younger ones , making older Black voters a crucial constituency , particularly in Democratic primary contests .
This group ’ s power is likely to wane when some of its most well-known members , particularly Clyburn and Lewis — who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Democratic politics — retire from office .
But whether the more moderate approach of this group is still influential in Democratic circles will depend on whether these officials are replaced by younger establishment figures or more anti-establishment black Democrats .
Speaking of which … • Major Figures : Rev .
William Barber , Barnes , Charles Booker , Bowman , Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison , Rep. Ilhan Omar , Rep. Ayanna Pressley , people associated with Movement for Black Lives and Black Lives Matter groups .
• Alliances : Often were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders and/or Warren .
• Geography : Often represent areas that don ’ t have large Black populations and are outside of the South .
• Ideology : More supportive of liberal ideas such as the Green New Deal , Medicare for All and reducing police funding .
In the Obama years , it wasn ’ t obvious that there was a distinct black progressive bloc — there weren ’ t a ton of prominent black political figures who were well to the left of , say , Clyburn .
But the leftward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ created an opening for more progressive Black politicians .
The rise of this bloc is also arguably aided by the prominence of Black authors and writers like Ta-Nehisi Coates , formerly of The Atlantic , Boston University professor Ibram X. Kendi and The New York Times ’ s Nikole Hannah-Jones , who are pushing sweeping ideas to combat racial inequality , such as reparations , that more establishment Black politicians often don ’ t talk about .
There still aren ’ t that many of these politicians in office , particularly at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aside , several of the more progressive Black candidates lost to more establishment figures in Democratic primaries this year .
But this bloc is worth watching , in part because its core constituency is arguably younger ( under 45 ) and more progressive white voters as much as African Americans .
Any white incumbent in a heavily Democratic area now has to be worried that a Black liberal candidate emerges , gets some support among Black voters who might like to have a Black person represent them and then also wins a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who are more “ woke ” on racial issues and want to vote for a Black candidate .
This bloc also complicates things for elected officials like Cory Booker and Harris , who have positioned themselves as more ideologically moderate .
In a world in which someone like Pressley ( who endorsed Warren ) has a national profile , more progressive voters of all races may have felt more comfortable backing Sanders or Warren over Booker or Harris in the 2020 Democratic primary , as these progressive voters know they will probably get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who is also Black ( like Pressley ) in a future presidential race .
• Alliances : Not clearly aligned with other major figures in the Democratic Party .
• Geography : Not particularly linked to a region ; interested in statewide and national office and therefore trying to build a large constituency of both Black and non-Black Democrats .
• Ideology : Generally speaking , left of the establishment but right of the anti-establishment .
In some sense , you can ’ t get more established ( and hence establishment ) than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But Obama ran against the older Black establishment in 2008 .
( Lewis , for example , endorsed Hillary Clinton before switching to Obama . )
And since leaving office , Obama has signaled that he is open to more liberal ideas than those he implemented while president , although he has also expressed wariness of the party going too far left .
In their presidential campaigns , Booker and Harris positioned themselves ideologically between Biden and Sanders .
The people in this group are quite … well , political — intentionally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ especially establishment or anti-establishment , or to be seen as allied only with the old or the young .
This positioning obviously worked for Obama .
The result , though , is that these officials are kind of independent actors , not associated with an obvious bloc in the party .
And that carries risk .
For example , some Black progressives think Harris is too establishment and moderate .
But it ’ s not clear that she is perfectly aligned with the establishment either — after all , she ran against Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attacked him fairly sharply .
So more moderate powerbrokers in the party , such as Biden , Clyburn and Pelosi , might prefer a Black person who is more aligned with them as Biden ’ s running mate , such as Bottoms or Demings .
Basically everyone in this group is between the ages of 45 and 60 , which is likely explained by the fact that until recently , a Black person cast as very liberal had little chance to advance in Democratic politics outside of a heavily Black area .
Many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for statewide office and/or the presidency .
• Alliances : Not clearly aligned with other major figures in the Democratic Party .
• Geography : Not particularly linked to a region or type of constituency .
This group is fairly small and doesn ’ t wield a ton of power in Democratic politics .
In some ways , they are a cautionary tale for the younger anti-establishment figures .
If the anti-establishment doesn ’ t really gain power in the Democratic Party , a Speaker Jeffries might ignore them in much the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Obama have ignored people like Green , Jackson and West in the past .
Lee has policy views well to the left of Pelosi but they have a good relationship .
• Major Figures : Rep. Will Hurd , former Rep. Mia Love , former Secretary of State Colin Powell , Sen. Tim Scott , former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele .
• Alliances : Not particularly allied with anyone , but generally not allied with President Trump .
• Geography : Not particularly linked to a region , but their constituencies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are overwhelmingly white .
• Ideology : Conservative on many policy issues , but generally opposed to the identity politics of Trump .
There are few Black Republicans in major political roles — few enough that there is no real geographic or ideological unifier among them .
But the president has made so many controversial and at times racist comments that Black Republicans and ex-Republicans are basically forced to comment on them .
These figures tend to criticize Trump ’ s racial and racist rhetoric .
That fits with their general political approach @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these people had long suggested that the GOP needed to change its policies and outreach to appeal more to Black voters .
• Alliances : Allied with Trump and his administration .
• Geography : Same as the Trump-skeptical Republicans .
• Ideology : Conservative on many policy issues and not critical of Trump on identity and race issues .
It ’ s not necessarily that people in this bloc agree with everything that Trump says on racial issues , but more that they aren ’ t usually going to criticize him in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — but if Trump wins a second term , I would expect this bloc to grow , with more Black Republicans putting their political ambitions ahead of whatever qualms they may have about the president ’ s rhetoric .
Again , none of this is an exact science .
But these divides among Black political figures are important and often a little hard to see clearly , since nearly all of these politicians are Democrats and most of them broadly agree on major issues .
If , for example , Harris is named @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be some Black Democrats who are excited about that and others who are more lukewarm .
This is not Barack Obama ’ s party anymore — but at least for now , it ’ s not Kamala Harris ’ s party or Jamaal Bowman ’ s party or Hakeem Jeffries ’ s party or James Clyburn ’ s party either .
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast : Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

New York’s Jamaal Bowman and Kentucky’s Charles Booker, two Black men running on very liberal policy platforms, likely defeated and nearly defeated (respectively) white Democrats in primaries last week, giving a boost to the party’s insurgent wing. Neither Bowman nor Booker got much help from the party elite — unsurprising, as they were running against establishment-backed figures — and also did not get much help from powerful Black officials in the Democratic Party. Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Booker in his race against Amy McGrath, but Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris didn’t. Members of the Congressional Black Caucus interjected themselves into Bowman’s race — to endorse the longtime incumbent, Rep. Eliot Engel.
[Related: Our 2020 National Polling Averages]
Speaking of Harris, she seems like a fairly logical choice to be presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s running mate. But it probably doesn’t help her that some more liberal Black Democrats, such as Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, are publicly suggesting that they might prefer Warren for the VP slot over the California senator.
It’s not surprising that prominent Black political figures aren’t aligned on every issue — and there’s nothing new about that at all. But these particular divides are illustrative of major shifts happening within Black politics, by which I largely mean the world of activists, elected officials and other power brokers in the United States who are Black. We are in an era where one man (Barack Obama) is no longer the center of Black politics. So among the major power centers are the activist movement linked to Black Lives Matter that is as skeptical of Black elected officials as non-Black ones; a rising left wing of the Democratic Party that includes many Black voices; and a Black establishment that is arguably more powerful than ever before on Capitol Hill.
[Related: The Diversity Of Black Political Views]
There are now, in my view, at least seven fairly distinct camps among Black political figures — concentrated in the Democratic Party but also stretching into the GOP. These groupings — which come from my own reporting and talking to experts, rather than any specific data set — are mostly informal. But the idea is to explain some common patterns and themes we are seeing, not necessarily to perfectly describe the politics of any particular person or faction in the party. I should also emphasize that these camps do not correspond exactly to rank-and-file Black voters, although I will talk about some places where there is overlap between activists and voters.
I have tried to order the camps by size, from largest to smallest. They are:
The Younger (Under Age 60) Establishment
Many of the Black figures who entered electoral politics amid the Civil Rights activism of the 1960s and 70s have retired or passed away. They have largely been replaced by a younger cohort — at least relative to other elected officials — that is not on the streets protesting but instead trying to build upon the inroads the Civil Rights generation made once they got into office.
This group, trying to maintain and grow its power, tends to align with the Democratic Party’s existing powerbrokers. So Bottoms and Richmond endorsed Biden very early in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, even as other Black political figures waited to see if Booker or Harris’s campaigns would take off. Bottoms’s early endorsement is reportedly one reason that Biden is considering the Atlanta mayor to be his running mate. Bowser endorsed Michael Bloomberg for president, aligning herself with a figure who spent much of his campaign under attack for supporting aggressive policing policies during his time as mayor of New York that disproportionately affected Black people.
This younger establishment group is wary of the more progressive, anti-establishment parts of the Democratic Party. From the younger Black establishment’s perspective, Black politicians had to fight hard to gain a real foothold in the Democratic Party as it is structured now, and that standing should not be taken for granted. So members of this bloc tend to see attacks on party establishment figures, even white ones, as attacks on them.
And the young establishment is fighting back. Jeffries cast his endorsement of Engel over Bowman in terms of loyalty to Engel, a longtime New York political figure with a liberal voting record. But Jeffries’s backing of Engel was also another round in the moderate vs. left-wing fights that are happening in New York and Washington politics that feature Jeffries on one side and Ocasio-Cortez on the other. These fights cut across racial lines and include Black and non-Black officials on both sides.
If the Democratic Party remains largely dominated by its more moderate wing, Black officials in the younger establishment are likely to see their clout grow. Keep an eye on Jeffries in particular — he is one of the leading candidates to become the top Democrat in the House whenever Pelosi steps down.
The Older (60 And Above) Establishment
Major Figures : Rep. James Clyburn, Rep. Val Demings, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, Rep. John Lewis, Rep. Greg Meeks, National Urban League President Marc Morial.
: Rep. James Clyburn, Rep. Val Demings, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, Rep. John Lewis, Rep. Greg Meeks, National Urban League President Marc Morial. Alliances : Close to Biden and Pelosi.
: Close to Biden and Pelosi. Geography : Often represent heavily Black areas and/or areas in the South.
: Often represent heavily Black areas and/or areas in the South. Ideology: Similar to the younger establishment, perhaps even more wary of very liberal ideas.
Many political experts have argued that Clyburn’s endorsement of Biden was the defining event of the Democratic primary, leading to Biden winning South Carolina’s Black voters, and therefore the state, by a huge margin. That victory seemed to catapult Biden to the nomination. An alternative explanation might be that Black voters in South Carolina and throughout the South were already fairly hesitant about Sanders becoming the Democratic nominee (see the 2016 primary), and Clyburn was just echoing a sentiment he was hearing from his constituents that was then reflected in the voting results.
Those alternative explanations — and perhaps there is truth in both — point to the importance and power of Black officials in the older establishment: This group both represents the existing views of older Black voters but probably also helps mold those views. And older Black voters vote at higher rates than younger ones, making older Black voters a crucial constituency, particularly in Democratic primary contests.
This group’s power is likely to wane when some of its most well-known members, particularly Clyburn and Lewis — who are two of the most influential figures in Democratic politics — retire from office. But whether the more moderate approach of this group is still influential in Democratic circles will depend on whether these officials are replaced by younger establishment figures or more anti-establishment black Democrats. Speaking of which …
The Younger Anti-Establishment
In the Obama years, it wasn’t obvious that there was a distinct black progressive bloc — there weren’t a ton of prominent black political figures who were well to the left of, say, Clyburn.
But the leftward shift in the Democratic Party overall has created an opening for more progressive Black politicians. The rise of this bloc is also arguably aided by the prominence of Black authors and writers like Ta-Nehisi Coates, formerly of The Atlantic, Boston University professor Ibram X. Kendi and The New York Times’s Nikole Hannah-Jones, who are pushing sweeping ideas to combat racial inequality, such as reparations, that more establishment Black politicians often don’t talk about.
There still aren’t that many of these politicians in office, particularly at the federal level. Bowman’s win aside, several of the more progressive Black candidates lost to more establishment figures in Democratic primaries this year.
But this bloc is worth watching, in part because its core constituency is arguably younger (under 45) and more progressive white voters as much as African Americans. Any white incumbent in a heavily Democratic area now has to be worried that a Black liberal candidate emerges, gets some support among Black voters who might like to have a Black person represent them and then also wins a lot of younger and more progressive white voters who are more “woke” on racial issues and want to vote for a Black candidate.
This bloc also complicates things for elected officials like Cory Booker and Harris, who have positioned themselves as more ideologically moderate. In a world in which someone like Pressley (who endorsed Warren) has a national profile, more progressive voters of all races may have felt more comfortable backing Sanders or Warren over Booker or Harris in the 2020 Democratic primary, as these progressive voters know they will probably get to vote for a very progressive person who is also Black (like Pressley) in a future presidential race.
The Obamaites
Major Figures : Former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, Cory Booker, Harris, Rep. Jahana Hayes, Obama.
: Former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, Cory Booker, Harris, Rep. Jahana Hayes, Obama. Alliances : Not clearly aligned with other major figures in the Democratic Party.
: Not clearly aligned with other major figures in the Democratic Party. Geography : Not particularly linked to a region; interested in statewide and national office and therefore trying to build a large constituency of both Black and non-Black Democrats.
: Not particularly linked to a region; interested in statewide and national office and therefore trying to build a large constituency of both Black and non-Black Democrats. Ideology: Generally speaking, left of the establishment but right of the anti-establishment.
In some sense, you can’t get more established (and hence establishment) than a former president and two sitting senators. But Obama ran against the older Black establishment in 2008. (Lewis, for example, endorsed Hillary Clinton before switching to Obama.) And since leaving office, Obama has signaled that he is open to more liberal ideas than those he implemented while president, although he has also expressed wariness of the party going too far left. In their presidential campaigns, Booker and Harris positioned themselves ideologically between Biden and Sanders.
The people in this group are quite … well, political — intentionally trying to avoid getting pinned down as especially establishment or anti-establishment, or to be seen as allied only with the old or the young. This positioning obviously worked for Obama. The result, though, is that these officials are kind of independent actors, not associated with an obvious bloc in the party. And that carries risk. For example, some Black progressives think Harris is too establishment and moderate. But it’s not clear that she is perfectly aligned with the establishment either — after all, she ran against Biden during the presidential campaign and at times attacked him fairly sharply.
So more moderate powerbrokers in the party, such as Biden, Clyburn and Pelosi, might prefer a Black person who is more aligned with them as Biden’s running mate, such as Bottoms or Demings.
Basically everyone in this group is between the ages of 45 and 60, which is likely explained by the fact that until recently, a Black person cast as very liberal had little chance to advance in Democratic politics outside of a heavily Black area. Many of these figures aspire or have aspired for statewide office and/or the presidency.
The Older Anti-Establishment
Major Figures : Rep. Al Green, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, Rep. Barbara Lee, activist, author and professor Cornel West.
: Rep. Al Green, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, Rep. Barbara Lee, activist, author and professor Cornel West. Alliances : Not clearly aligned with other major figures in the Democratic Party.
: Not clearly aligned with other major figures in the Democratic Party. Geography : Not particularly linked to a region or type of constituency.
: Not particularly linked to a region or type of constituency. Ideology: Fairly similar to the younger anti-establishment.
This group is fairly small and doesn’t wield a ton of power in Democratic politics. In some ways, they are a cautionary tale for the younger anti-establishment figures. If the anti-establishment doesn’t really gain power in the Democratic Party, a Speaker Jeffries might ignore them in much the same way that Pelosi and Presidents Clinton and Obama have ignored people like Green, Jackson and West in the past.
Trump-Skeptical Conservatives/Republicans
Major Figures: Rep. Will Hurd, former Rep. Mia Love, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, Sen. Tim Scott, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele.
Rep. Will Hurd, former Rep. Mia Love, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, Sen. Tim Scott, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele. Alliances : Not particularly allied with anyone, but generally not allied with President Trump.
: Not particularly allied with anyone, but generally allied with President Trump. Geography: Not particularly linked to a region, but their constituencies are heavily white, since GOP voters are overwhelmingly white.
Not particularly linked to a region, but their constituencies are heavily white, since GOP voters are overwhelmingly white. Ideology: Conservative on many policy issues, but generally opposed to the identity politics of Trump.
There are few Black Republicans in major political roles — few enough that there is no real geographic or ideological unifier among them. But the president has made so many controversial and at times racist comments that Black Republicans and ex-Republicans are basically forced to comment on them. These figures tend to criticize Trump’s racial and racist rhetoric. That fits with their general political approach — even before Trump, many of these people had long suggested that the GOP needed to change its policies and outreach to appeal more to Black voters.
Pro-Trump Conservatives/Republicans
Major Figures: Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, Kanye West.
Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, Kanye West. Alliances : Allied with Trump and his administration.
: Allied with Trump and his administration. Geography : Same as the Trump-skeptical Republicans.
: Same as the Trump-skeptical Republicans. Ideology: Conservative on many policy issues and not critical of Trump on identity and race issues.
It’s not necessarily that people in this bloc agree with everything that Trump says on racial issues, but more that they aren’t usually going to criticize him in public. This is a tiny group — but if Trump wins a second term, I would expect this bloc to grow, with more Black Republicans putting their political ambitions ahead of whatever qualms they may have about the president’s rhetoric.
Again, none of this is an exact science. But these divides among Black political figures are important and often a little hard to see clearly, since nearly all of these politicians are Democrats and most of them broadly agree on major issues. If, for example, Harris is named Biden’s running mate, there will be some Black Democrats who are excited about that and others who are more lukewarm. This is not Barack Obama’s party anymore — but at least for now, it’s not Kamala Harris’s party or Jamaal Bowman’s party or Hakeem Jeffries’s party or James Clyburn’s party either.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-30--For Black Americans, Wearing A Mask Comes With Complicated Anxieties

Over the past few months , mask-wearing in public has become the norm .
In some states , it ’ s even required .
But for Black Americans — and young Black men in particular — wearing a mask can feel like a catch-22 .
Public health experts now say masks are crucial for preventing the spread of the virus , which has disproportionately affected Black people .
But putting on a mask can be an intense source of anxiety for many Black people — particularly Black men — who worry that they ’ ll be harassed or profiled while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Almost immediately after mask-wearing became widespread , there were anecdotal reports of Black men being followed and asked to leave stores because they were wearing masks , ” said ReNika Moore , director of the ACLU ’ s Racial Justice Program .
A new study underscores just how widespread this kind of profiling could be .
Researchers at the University of North Carolina found that in a survey experiment , non-Black respondents who scored high in racial resentment — a measure that ’ s designed to assess negative attitudes toward people of color @ @ @ @ @ @ @ young Black man as threatening or untrustworthy if he was wearing a homemade mask or a bandanna , compared to a white man around the same age .
“ There ’ s no doubt at this point that masks keep people safer from COVID-19 , ” said Marc Hetherington , a political science professor at the University of North Carolina and one of the authors of the study .
“ But certain types of masks may also be putting young Black men in danger of harassment or profiling.
” [ Related : Where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re Headed — And Why They Disagree ] Researchers had all respondents read a short fictitious news story about a young man who said he had been laid off due to the COVID-19 pandemic .
But the photo of the man that accompanied the narrative varied by race ( white or Black ) and face covering .
In some pictures , the man was wearing no mask ; in others , he was wearing a surgical mask , a homemade cloth mask or a bandanna .
The respondents were then asked to rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” the young man was .
The study found that non-Black respondents who scored high in racial resentment were significantly more likely to say the young Black man was threatening or untrustworthy when he was wearing the bandanna or the homemade mask .
Michael Jeffries , a professor of American studies at Wellesley College , said this study further affirms the fears of Black people wearing certain masks in public .
“ Our reactions are based on the way that we ’ re treated .
These are not figments of our imagination.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hunter College , said the findings reminded him of a lively conversation that sprang up in a WhatsApp group earlier in the pandemic .
He and the other Black men on the thread were swapping thoughts on which kinds of masks and bandannas would be safest for them to wear .
“ The standard darker blue or standard red colors were ones that we all kind of said , we ’ re definitely not going to wear that , ” he said , because of the colors ’ associations with street gangs .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ decision to make — do I wear this mask and potentially be stopped and profiled by the police ?
Or do I not wear it and risk my health and livelihood ?
” he said .
The UNC team ’ s findings have serious health implications , especially given how the coronavirus has disproportionately affected Black people .
But the research has also turned up one potential solution .
Since the researchers found that surgical masks didn ’ t increase negative perceptions of Black men the way homemade masks or bandannas did , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more widely available .
And some places have already done something like this : In Rochester , NY , the city mailed out almost 500,000 surgical masks to residents .
Several experts and activists pointed out , though , that simply mailing out surgical masks won ’ t solve the underlying issues that make some Black people feel unsafe covering their faces in public .
Tyler Whittenburg , chief counsel of the Justice Systems Reform group at the advocacy organization Southern Coalition for Social Justice , said that the anxiety about wearing face @ @ @ @ @ @ @ masks themselves .
It ’ s linked to the larger systemic issues around police violence and the surveillance of Black people that have been raised by protesters across the country in the past month .
“ If you want to help mitigate that anxiety , then listen to the people that are out in the streets , ” he said .
And Lauren Hill , an assistant professor of public health at the University of North Carolina , said it ’ s important that businesses and local governments ensure that Black people aren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of what kind of mask they ’ re wearing .
[ Related : How Americans View The Coronavirus Crisis And Trump ’ s Response ] Smiley told us that listening to Black Americans and paying attention to their experiences is especially important because even if surgical masks don ’ t trigger damaging stereotypes now , that might change .
It ’ s possible , for example , that because they haven ’ t been readily available until recently , the masks — and people who wear them — might be perceived more negatively @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And that change could disproportionately impact Black Americans , given the difficulties they already face with other types of face masks .
On a personal level , Smiley has prioritized wearing a mask from the start , since he believes he was actually sick with the virus earlier this year .
And now , he ’ s mostly worried about being harassed on the rare occasions when he forgets to wear a mask .
But he understands many Black people may still feel uncomfortable putting one on — and he said that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problem may not have a simple fix .
“ This really is a matter of health and people ’ s lives , so we can ’ t ignore it , ” he said , adding , “ But it is probably going to be more complicated than just finding a neutral mask.
” FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast : Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas

Over the past few months, mask-wearing in public has become the norm. In some states, it’s even required. But for Black Americans — and young Black men in particular — wearing a mask can feel like a catch-22. Public health experts now say masks are crucial for preventing the spread of the virus, which has disproportionately affected Black people. But putting on a mask can be an intense source of anxiety for many Black people — particularly Black men — who worry that they’ll be harassed or profiled while they’re wearing one.
“Almost immediately after mask-wearing became widespread, there were anecdotal reports of Black men being followed and asked to leave stores because they were wearing masks,” said ReNika Moore, director of the ACLU’s Racial Justice Program.
A new study underscores just how widespread this kind of profiling could be. Researchers at the University of North Carolina found that in a survey experiment, non-Black respondents who scored high in racial resentment — a measure that’s designed to assess negative attitudes toward people of color — were much likelier to perceive a young Black man as threatening or untrustworthy if he was wearing a homemade mask or a bandanna, compared to a white man around the same age.
“There’s no doubt at this point that masks keep people safer from COVID-19,” said Marc Hetherington, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina and one of the authors of the study. “But certain types of masks may also be putting young Black men in danger of harassment or profiling.”
[Related: Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We’re Headed — And Why They Disagree]
Researchers had all respondents read a short fictitious news story about a young man who said he had been laid off due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But the photo of the man that accompanied the narrative varied by race (white or Black) and face covering. In some pictures, the man was wearing no mask; in others, he was wearing a surgical mask, a homemade cloth mask or a bandanna.
The respondents were then asked to rate how “threatening” and “trustworthy” the young man was. The study found that non-Black respondents who scored high in racial resentment were significantly more likely to say the young Black man was threatening or untrustworthy when he was wearing the bandanna or the homemade mask. Michael Jeffries, a professor of American studies at Wellesley College, said this study further affirms the fears of Black people wearing certain masks in public. “Our reactions are based on the way that we’re treated. These are not figments of our imagination.”
CalvinJohn Smiley, a sociology professor at Hunter College, said the findings reminded him of a lively conversation that sprang up in a WhatsApp group earlier in the pandemic. He and the other Black men on the thread were swapping thoughts on which kinds of masks and bandannas would be safest for them to wear. “The standard darker blue or standard red colors were ones that we all kind of said, we’re definitely not going to wear that,” he said, because of the colors’ associations with street gangs. “It’s really a horrible decision to make — do I wear this mask and potentially be stopped and profiled by the police? Or do I not wear it and risk my health and livelihood?” he said.
Subscribe to our coronavirus podcast, PODCAST-19
The UNC team’s findings have serious health implications, especially given how the coronavirus has disproportionately affected Black people. But the research has also turned up one potential solution. Since the researchers found that surgical masks didn’t increase negative perceptions of Black men the way homemade masks or bandannas did, cities and states could make those masks more widely available. And some places have already done something like this: In Rochester, NY, the city mailed out almost 500,000 surgical masks to residents.
Several experts and activists pointed out, though, that simply mailing out surgical masks won’t solve the underlying issues that make some Black people feel unsafe covering their faces in public. Tyler Whittenburg, chief counsel of the Justice Systems Reform group at the advocacy organization Southern Coalition for Social Justice, said that the anxiety about wearing face masks isn’t just about the masks themselves. It’s linked to the larger systemic issues around police violence and the surveillance of Black people that have been raised by protesters across the country in the past month. “If you want to help mitigate that anxiety, then listen to the people that are out in the streets,” he said. And Lauren Hill, an assistant professor of public health at the University of North Carolina, said it’s important that businesses and local governments ensure that Black people aren’t harassed in public, regardless of what kind of mask they’re wearing.
[Related: How Americans View The Coronavirus Crisis And Trump’s Response]
Smiley told us that listening to Black Americans and paying attention to their experiences is especially important because even if surgical masks don’t trigger damaging stereotypes now, that might change. It’s possible, for example, that because they haven’t been readily available until recently, the masks — and people who wear them — might be perceived more negatively if masks start being distributed for free. And that change could disproportionately impact Black Americans, given the difficulties they already face with other types of face masks.
On a personal level, Smiley has prioritized wearing a mask from the start, since he believes he was actually sick with the virus earlier this year. And now, he’s mostly worried about being harassed on the rare occasions when he forgets to wear a mask. But he understands many Black people may still feel uncomfortable putting one on — and he said that complexity and ambivalence is one reason this problem may not have a simple fix. “This really is a matter of health and people’s lives, so we can’t ignore it,” he said, adding, “But it is probably going to be more complicated than just finding a neutral mask.”
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-30--If Texas Is Competitive, Trump Has Problems

In this week ’ s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the team looks at new polling that clarifies the presidential race @ @ @ @

If Texas Is Competitive, Trump Has Problems
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team looks at new polling that clarifies the presidential race in battleground states.