fivethirtyeight--2020-05-13--If Trump Is Down In The Polls, Why Do So Many Americans Think He’ll Win?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight ’ s weekly politics chat .
The transcript below has been lightly edited .
sarahf ( Sarah Frostenson , politics editor ) : FiveThirtyEight alum Harry Enten found that former Vice President Joe Biden ’ s average lead of 6 percentage points over President Trump is the steadiest lead in a race with an incumbent running since at least 1944 .
In other words , Biden has led , on average , by 6 points since the beginning of 2020 , but he ’ s also led by 6 points since the beginning of 2019 .
Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of swing states according to some early polls , yet many Americans don ’ t believe Trump will lose despite the many , many polls showing Biden ahead .
How do we explain this disconnect ?
Are voters overreacting to Trump ’ s win in 2016 ?
Then , let ’ s discuss how to make sense of the polls at this point in the cycle .
OK , first : What ’ s up with voters giving Trump such high odds of beating Biden — 55 percent said they think Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ average of recent polls .
That ’ s been relatively consistent over time , too .
Do you think that will change , though , if Biden remains in the lead ?
perry ( Perry Bacon Jr. , senior writer ) : Trump ’ s standing might be stronger in perception than in reality for many voters for two reasons .
First , the polls had Clinton as the likely winner in 2016 and Trump won — so , of course , some people are wary of the polls again .
Second , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take extralegal , unethical or norm-violating steps ( like trying to have the Ukrainian government investigate the son of one of his rivals ) to win the election makes people a little less confident that the election will take place in a traditional way .
( Basically , if some people already think Trump will cheat to win , they will likely not find the polls much comfort . )
nrakich ( Nathaniel Rakich , elections analyst ) : I think people are clearly overcorrecting for what happened in 2016 .
There ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to make the same mistake twice , and for a lot of voters , that mistake in 2016 was , “ Donald Trump can ’ t win.
” I think there ’ s also a sense that Trump is Teflon politically .
And I get that , since opinions of him are so baked in .
But it ’ s also not reallllly true , since some events ( like the government shutdown ) have hurt his popularity .
And regardless , he is still quite unpopular , so even if those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re not good for Trump .
That said , people are correct to be uncertain about the election .
We are still six months out .
geoffrey.skelley ( Geoffrey Skelley , elections analyst ) : These numbers on how many Americans think Trump could win reelection could also still shift — for instance , they already have in Fox News ’ s polling over time .
After the 2018 Democratic wave in the House , only 39 percent said Trump would be reelected compared with 52 percent who said he wouldn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ standing has improved , but it ’ s bounced around some too .
How things play out in the next few months and what coverage of the race looks like will shape public opinion .
perry : Another problem is the reporting that Trump staffers X or Y or various senators or GOP strategists think Trump is in trouble tells us little .
I read those stories from May to October 2016 , and they often turn out to be wrong .
The best information we have is what we have already mentioned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weak approval ratings ; 2. the fact that those weak ratings correctly foreshadowed a huge Democratic wave in 2018 ; 3. the head-to-head polls showing him behind Biden .
nrakich : Yeah , totally , Perry .
Political insiders are subject to the same kind of bad punditry that the rest of us are .
sarah : But , as Nathaniel said , the idea that nothing Trump does will negatively impact him does seem , at this point , to be baked in .
I ’ m curious , though , what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump might be in trouble — aside from Biden ’ s 6-point lead ?
One thing that ’ s stood out to me is Trump ’ s lost points among voters who don ’ t like either candidate running .
In 2016 , Trump won these voters by a large margin , but here in 2020 , they ’ re breaking overwhelmingly for Biden .
geoffrey.skelley : For me , it ’ s hard not to connect Trump ’ s standing in the polls with his approval rating .
It ’ s been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent in most polls .
And , overall , he ’ s at about 45 percent in FiveThirtyEight ’ s tracker of registered or likely voter polls , with about 52 percent of voters who disapprove of him ( his approval has generally been a little better among voters than adults , and voters will determine his future ) .
I ’ d argue that this had real repercussions in the 2018 midterms , too .
Just look at the exit polls — 88 percent of voters who approved of Trump voted for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those who disapproved of him voted Democratic .
So , if many more people continue to disapprove than approve of Trump , I think it ’ ll be challenging for him to win .
nrakich : Sarah , to your point about the “ haters ” bloc , I agree that that seems important .
But I also am wary of that turning into the new “ working class voters in a diner , ” a.k.a .
the type of voter who dominates coverage of the election to the exclusion of the ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t fit that description .
sarah : For sure .
I ’ m just curious how much evidence we have that Trump is in trouble and how that reconciles ( or doesn ’ t ) with voters ’ belief that we shouldn ’ t underestimate him here in 2020 , and I think if he continues to do poorly with this group of voters that could be telling .
Of course , one point in Trump ’ s favor is that there ’ s little evidence that Biden has made progress in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ college degree who supported Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. perry : I ’ d argue that Biden ’ s lead is not particularly solid — so voters thinking he will not win makes a lot of sense to me .
Basically , I agree with the voters .
nrakich : Wait , really , Perry ?
Not to put words in your mouth , but from my conversations with you , I thought you believed that the election would be competitive — that either side could win .
But I think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perry : Fifty-five percent of voters thinking Trump will win is not 90 percent .
Voters saying they think Trump has a very good chance of winning reelection seems entirely consistent with the data , too .
Say the election were today — I would expect Biden to win Arizona , Michigan , Pennsylvania and no other states Trump won in 2016 .
Yes , Biden would win the election , but this is not exactly a landslide .
sarah : Ah , so could it also be that we ( the media @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overcorrecting for 2016 ?
sarah : That is , a majority think Trump will win , but to your point , Perry — it ’ s 55 percent of voters saying this , not an overwhelming 90 percent majority .
nrakich : I think that is fair .
I have probably been guilty of that so far in this chat .
geoffrey.skelley : Pundits don ’ t want to look stupid — and after 2016 , they probably felt pretty foolish , so they may be doing more overcorrecting than the public is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , small disconnects among election watchers — PredictIt ’ s markets , for instance , make Biden a favorite in enough states to win a majority in the Electoral College , but the overall market for the election winner still favors Trump .
🤷♂ sarah : Yeah , it ’ s an unsatisfying answer , but I think it ’ s a combination of the two .
That is , we definitely risk overestimating how much voters think Trump is “ Teflon Don ” and can therefore weather every scandal .
But , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there ’ s a real phenomenon happening here , where voters overall are less likely to take the polls at face value .
This was another stat in Enten ’ s article , but it stood out to me that in 2018 , despite many indicators pointing toward a Democratic wave , many voters didn ’ t think Democrats would take back the House .
According to Gallup polls , 50 percent of Americans said they thought Republicans would win the House compared with 44 percent who said Democrats would .
What stood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that this apparently was the first time in Gallup ’ s polling when Americans incorrectly forecasted who would win the House !
!
geoffrey.skelley : I guess people had to see it to believe it .
It might also help explain why Fox News ’ s polling on whether voters thought Trump would win reelection took a sharp tumble right after that election — because voters saw the GOP in the Trump era actually lose the House .
perry : People are wary of polls after 2016. nrakich : With little justification , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polls were spot-on in 2016 ( it ’ s just that the national popular vote doesn ’ t pick the winner of the election ) .
And the polls were great in 2018. perry : Nathaniel ’ s right that the polls were actually pretty good — but it ’ s also the case that media coverage didn ’ t seriously entertain the possibility of Trump winning .
So , you have conservatives who are generally distrustful of the media and are always disinclined to believe polls covered in the media and , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by media organizations .
Combine that with liberals who felt the polls gave them a false sense of security in 2016 and you have a sizable bloc of people who are going to be skeptical of 2020 polling .
sarah : Right — and also to be clear , even though the overall accuracy of the polls in 2016 was only slightly below average by historical standards , the state-level polling wasn ’ t as accurate .
And because it was off in a few key swing states , I think that colored @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many folks .
nrakich : Yeah , I think you have a combination of Democrats having very low self-confidence in their ability to win an election due to post-2016 trauma and Republicans being overconfident because they keep getting told not to listen to the media or polls .
perry : News consumers in America weren ’ t really presented with an accurate assessment of Trump ’ s chances of winning in 2016 — and I say that as someone who was covering the election in 2016 .
FiveThirtyEight did better than others , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ media .
geoffrey.skelley : And , as Nate Cohn at The New York Times wrote on Tuesday , there may be reasons to remain cautious of state-level polls this year , too .
On the one hand , there are fewer undecideds and more pollsters are weighting by education , but on the other hand , there are more online state-level polls with questionable methodologies , including some that weight by how people said they voted in 2016 — a suspect choice partly because people ’ s memories are fallible .
perry : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrong , though , and that Trump is an underdog ?
geoffrey.skelley : Trump has consistently trailed Biden by 4 to 6 points nationally , so I would say yes .
Obviously , the smaller that edge is by Election Day , the greater the possibility for Trump to lose the popular vote but still win the Electoral College , if he still has an advantage there ( and early evidence suggests he may ) .
perry : But couldn ’ t Trump lose nationally by 6 points and still win ?
Or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Biden is really leading by only about 4 points nationally , isn ’ t that about even odds if Trump ’ s Electoral College advantage holds ?
geoffrey.skelley : If he loses the popular vote by 6 points , I would be surprised if he still won .
perry : Sure .
What about 4 ?
geoffrey.skelley : It ’ s possible , but again , this is assuming he still has a notable edge in key states in the Electoral College .
perry : Isn ’ t it obvious that Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He is stronger in Wisconsin and Florida than he is nationally , for example .
He is stronger among white working-class voters than among other blocs .
geoffrey.skelley : Right , but I think the size of that advantage is debatable — some claim it ’ s bigger than in 2016 , but I don ’ t think we know that yet .
nrakich : Let me see if I can thread this needle… Yes , I strongly suspect Trump will have the advantage in the Electoral College again for the reasons you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who has the Electoral College edge before the election have very frequently gotten it 180 degrees backward .
And who has the Electoral College advantage bounces like a ping-pong ball between the parties from cycle to cycle .
geoffrey.skelley : Also , while the national polls could be off by a couple of points again , it ’ s worth remembering that the direction of that error varies from cycle to cycle .
So it ’ s also possible for that error to go in Biden ’ s direction too , in which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ close .
Campaigns are also dynamic .
Just ask Clinton — there ’ s reason to think that the release of James Comey ’ s letter less than two weeks before the election may have moved the needle just enough for her to lose .
And , remember , we ’ re still roughly six months out — so things can and probably will change in different ways .
What if the economy continues to go sideways over the next few months ?
Voters may start to say , well , Trump is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perry : I totally agree with that .
But the tricky thing is that while campaigns are dynamic , views on Trump are very undynamic .
So that ’ s why I tend to think that events don ’ t really matter this cycle .
My main question is really , “ Are the swing state polls accurate this cycle ?
” And I don ’ t feel confident I know the answer to that question , so I am as confused as the voters are .
So , like voters , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because I am overcorrecting based on what happened in 2016 — and I am probably overstating Trump ’ s chances based on perhaps also overcorrecting for what happened in 2016. geoffrey.skelley : Maybe it will boil down to how voters view Biden as an alternative to Trump .
If the election is truly a referendum , that ’ s not good for Trump .
But if there ’ s increasing doubt about Biden ’ s candidacy , it could reduce Democratic turnout or maybe even push some of those “ hater ” voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all , Biden ’ s lead isn ’ t insurmountable .
As Enten recently noted , there ’ s even been a downtick in Biden ’ s lead across national polls from about 6 points to 4 points , which line up with the allegation of sexual assault made by former Biden Senate staffer Tara Reade gaining traction .
In other words , events still matter at the margins , and the margins could be decisive , considering Trump won because of about 78,000 votes in three states in 2016 .

If Trump Is Down In The Polls, Why Do So Many Americans Think He’ll Win?
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): FiveThirtyEight alum Harry Enten found that former Vice President Joe Biden’s average lead of 6 percentage points over President Trump is the steadiest lead in a race with an incumbent running since at least 1944. In other words, Biden has led, on average, by 6 points since the beginning of 2020, but he’s also led by 6 points since the beginning of 2019.
Biden also has a decent lead in a number of swing states according to some early polls, yet many Americans don’t believe Trump will lose despite the many, many polls showing Biden ahead. How do we explain this disconnect? Are voters overreacting to Trump’s win in 2016? Then, let’s discuss how to make sense of the polls at this point in the cycle.
OK, first: What’s up with voters giving Trump such high odds of beating Biden — 55 percent said they think Trump will win in November according to an average of recent polls. That’s been relatively consistent over time, too. Do you think that will change, though, if Biden remains in the lead?
perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): Trump’s standing might be stronger in perception than in reality for many voters for two reasons. First, the polls had Clinton as the likely winner in 2016 and Trump won — so, of course, some people are wary of the polls again. Second, I think the possibility that Trump might take extralegal, unethical or norm-violating steps (like trying to have the Ukrainian government investigate the son of one of his rivals) to win the election makes people a little less confident that the election will take place in a traditional way. (Basically, if some people already think Trump will cheat to win, they will likely not find the polls much comfort.)
nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): I think people are clearly overcorrecting for what happened in 2016. There’s a natural human bias to not want to make the same mistake twice, and for a lot of voters, that mistake in 2016 was, “Donald Trump can’t win.”
I think there’s also a sense that Trump is Teflon politically.
And I get that, since opinions of him are so baked in. But it’s also not reallllly true, since some events (like the government shutdown) have hurt his popularity. And regardless, he is still quite unpopular, so even if those attitudes are baked in, they’re not good for Trump.
That said, people are correct to be uncertain about the election. We are still six months out.
geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): These numbers on how many Americans think Trump could win reelection could also still shift — for instance, they already have in Fox News’s polling over time. After the 2018 Democratic wave in the House, only 39 percent said Trump would be reelected compared with 52 percent who said he wouldn’t. Since then, Trump’s standing has improved, but it’s bounced around some too. How things play out in the next few months and what coverage of the race looks like will shape public opinion.
perry: Another problem is the reporting that Trump staffers X or Y or various senators or GOP strategists think Trump is in trouble tells us little. I read those stories from May to October 2016, and they often turn out to be wrong. The best information we have is what we have already mentioned: 1. Trump’s consistently weak approval ratings; 2. the fact that those weak ratings correctly foreshadowed a huge Democratic wave in 2018; 3. the head-to-head polls showing him behind Biden.
nrakich: Yeah, totally, Perry. Political insiders are subject to the same kind of bad punditry that the rest of us are.
sarah: But, as Nathaniel said, the idea that nothing Trump does will negatively impact him does seem, at this point, to be baked in. I’m curious, though, what can we point to as signs that Trump might be in trouble — aside from Biden’s 6-point lead?
One thing that’s stood out to me is Trump’s lost points among voters who don’t like either candidate running. In 2016, Trump won these voters by a large margin, but here in 2020, they’re breaking overwhelmingly for Biden.
geoffrey.skelley: For me, it’s hard not to connect Trump’s standing in the polls with his approval rating. It’s been consistently stuck between roughly 40 and 45 percent in most polls. And, overall, he’s at about 45 percent in FiveThirtyEight’s tracker of registered or likely voter polls, with about 52 percent of voters who disapprove of him (his approval has generally been a little better among voters than adults, and voters will determine his future).
I’d argue that this had real repercussions in the 2018 midterms, too. Just look at the exit polls — 88 percent of voters who approved of Trump voted for the GOP, but 90 percent of those who disapproved of him voted Democratic. So, if many more people continue to disapprove than approve of Trump, I think it’ll be challenging for him to win.
nrakich: Sarah, to your point about the “haters” bloc, I agree that that seems important. But I also am wary of that turning into the new “working class voters in a diner,” a.k.a. the type of voter who dominates coverage of the election to the exclusion of the (equally important!) voters who don’t fit that description.
sarah: For sure. I’m just curious how much evidence we have that Trump is in trouble and how that reconciles (or doesn’t) with voters’ belief that we shouldn’t underestimate him here in 2020, and I think if he continues to do poorly with this group of voters that could be telling.
Of course, one point in Trump’s favor is that there’s little evidence that Biden has made progress in winning back the white voters without a college degree who supported Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016.
perry: I’d argue that Biden’s lead is not particularly solid — so voters thinking he will not win makes a lot of sense to me. Basically, I agree with the voters.
nrakich: Wait, really, Perry? Not to put words in your mouth, but from my conversations with you, I thought you believed that the election would be competitive — that either side could win. But I think voters think Trump will definitely win.
perry: Fifty-five percent of voters thinking Trump will win is not 90 percent.
Voters saying they think Trump has a very good chance of winning reelection seems entirely consistent with the data, too.
Say the election were today — I would expect Biden to win Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and no other states Trump won in 2016. Yes, Biden would win the election, but this is not exactly a landslide.
sarah: Ah, so could it also be that we (the media) are overestimating how much voters are overcorrecting for 2016?
nrakich: Pundit-ception!
sarah: That is, a majority think Trump will win, but to your point, Perry — it’s 55 percent of voters saying this, not an overwhelming 90 percent majority.
nrakich: I think that is fair. I have probably been guilty of that so far in this chat.
sarah: Same.
geoffrey.skelley: Pundits don’t want to look stupid — and after 2016, they probably felt pretty foolish, so they may be doing more overcorrecting than the public is.
Then again, there are weird, small disconnects among election watchers — PredictIt’s markets, for instance, make Biden a favorite in enough states to win a majority in the Electoral College, but the overall market for the election winner still favors Trump. 🤷♂
sarah: Yeah, it’s an unsatisfying answer, but I think it’s a combination of the two. That is, we definitely risk overestimating how much voters think Trump is “Teflon Don” and can therefore weather every scandal. But, at the same time, I think there’s a real phenomenon happening here, where voters overall are less likely to take the polls at face value.
This was another stat in Enten’s article, but it stood out to me that in 2018, despite many indicators pointing toward a Democratic wave, many voters didn’t think Democrats would take back the House. According to Gallup polls, 50 percent of Americans said they thought Republicans would win the House compared with 44 percent who said Democrats would. What stood out to me, though, was that this apparently was the first time in Gallup’s polling when Americans incorrectly forecasted who would win the House!!
geoffrey.skelley: I guess people had to see it to believe it. It might also help explain why Fox News’s polling on whether voters thought Trump would win reelection took a sharp tumble right after that election — because voters saw the GOP in the Trump era actually lose the House.
perry: People are wary of polls after 2016.
nrakich: With little justification, it should be said. The national polls were spot-on in 2016 (it’s just that the national popular vote doesn’t pick the winner of the election). And the polls were great in 2018.
perry: Nathaniel’s right that the polls were actually pretty good — but it’s also the case that media coverage didn’t seriously entertain the possibility of Trump winning.
So, you have conservatives who are generally distrustful of the media and are always disinclined to believe polls covered in the media and, as is often the case, conducted by media organizations. Combine that with liberals who felt the polls gave them a false sense of security in 2016 and you have a sizable bloc of people who are going to be skeptical of 2020 polling.
sarah: Right — and also to be clear, even though the overall accuracy of the polls in 2016 was only slightly below average by historical standards, the state-level polling wasn’t as accurate. And because it was off in a few key swing states, I think that colored the overall accuracy of the polls for many folks.
nrakich: Yeah, I think you have a combination of Democrats having very low self-confidence in their ability to win an election due to post-2016 trauma and Republicans being overconfident because they keep getting told not to listen to the media or polls.
perry: News consumers in America weren’t really presented with an accurate assessment of Trump’s chances of winning in 2016 — and I say that as someone who was covering the election in 2016.
FiveThirtyEight did better than others, but FiveThirtyEight is not the entire news media.
geoffrey.skelley: And, as Nate Cohn at The New York Times wrote on Tuesday, there may be reasons to remain cautious of state-level polls this year, too. On the one hand, there are fewer undecideds and more pollsters are weighting by education, but on the other hand, there are more online state-level polls with questionable methodologies, including some that weight by how people said they voted in 2016 — a suspect choice partly because people’s memories are fallible.
perry: Are we even sure the markets are wrong, though, and that Trump is an underdog?
geoffrey.skelley: Trump has consistently trailed Biden by 4 to 6 points nationally, so I would say yes. Obviously, the smaller that edge is by Election Day, the greater the possibility for Trump to lose the popular vote but still win the Electoral College, if he still has an advantage there (and early evidence suggests he may).
perry: But couldn’t Trump lose nationally by 6 points and still win? Or say the polls are a bit off and Biden is really leading by only about 4 points nationally, isn’t that about even odds if Trump’s Electoral College advantage holds?
geoffrey.skelley: If he loses the popular vote by 6 points, I would be surprised if he still won.
perry: Sure. What about 4?
geoffrey.skelley: It’s possible, but again, this is assuming he still has a notable edge in key states in the Electoral College.
perry: Isn’t it obvious that Trump has an Electoral College edge again?
He is stronger in Wisconsin and Florida than he is nationally, for example. He is stronger among white working-class voters than among other blocs.
geoffrey.skelley: Right, but I think the size of that advantage is debatable — some claim it’s bigger than in 2016, but I don’t think we know that yet.
nrakich: Let me see if I can thread this needle… Yes, I strongly suspect Trump will have the advantage in the Electoral College again for the reasons you cite. But past attempts to predict who has the Electoral College edge before the election have very frequently gotten it 180 degrees backward. And who has the Electoral College advantage bounces like a ping-pong ball between the parties from cycle to cycle.
geoffrey.skelley: Also, while the national polls could be off by a couple of points again, it’s worth remembering that the direction of that error varies from cycle to cycle. So it’s also possible for that error to go in Biden’s direction too, in which case the race might not be that close.
Campaigns are also dynamic. Just ask Clinton — there’s reason to think that the release of James Comey’s letter less than two weeks before the election may have moved the needle just enough for her to lose. And, remember, we’re still roughly six months out — so things can and probably will change in different ways. What if the economy continues to go sideways over the next few months? Voters may start to say, well, Trump is more likely to lose than not.
perry: I totally agree with that. But the tricky thing is that while campaigns are dynamic, views on Trump are very undynamic.
So that’s why I tend to think that events don’t really matter this cycle. My main question is really, “Are the swing state polls accurate this cycle?” And I don’t feel confident I know the answer to that question, so I am as confused as the voters are. So, like voters, I might be overstating Trump’s chances because I am overcorrecting based on what happened in 2016 — and I am probably overstating Trump’s chances based on perhaps also overcorrecting for what happened in 2016.
geoffrey.skelley: Maybe it will boil down to how voters view Biden as an alternative to Trump. If the election is truly a referendum, that’s not good for Trump. But if there’s increasing doubt about Biden’s candidacy, it could reduce Democratic turnout or maybe even push some of those “hater” voters into Trump’s camp. After all, Biden’s lead isn’t insurmountable. As Enten recently noted, there’s even been a downtick in Biden’s lead across national polls from about 6 points to 4 points, which line up with the allegation of sexual assault made by former Biden Senate staffer Tara Reade gaining traction.
In other words, events still matter at the margins, and the margins could be decisive, considering Trump won because of about 78,000 votes in three states in 2016.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Does The U.S. Have A Coronavirus Recovery Plan?


fivethirtyeight--2020-05-13--Why A Voting App Won’t Solve Our Problems This November

At 106 , MacCene Grimmett is one of the oldest voters in the state of Utah .
Though women didn ’ t have the right to vote when she was born in 1913 , by the time she was of voting age , the 19th Amendment had passed .
She has voted in every election since , she told her local Fox affiliate , including the Utah County municipal general election last November .
But that time , the centenarian cast her ballot in a novel way : She voted via an app .
America is 174 days away from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also in the middle of a pandemic that upended normal life , requiring mass shutdowns and social distancing .
Those two things don ’ t exactly jive .
Having millions of Americans stand in crowded polling places for hours to cast a ballot on Election Day sounds like the makings of a public health disaster — especially if there is a second surge of COVID-19 infections in the fall , as some experts predict .
So now , election officials are looking for ways to hold elections remotely .
One option that has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a smartphone or electronic device , just like Grimmett did last fall ( though so far , states seem to only be considering this option for certain groups of voters , such as voters with disabilities ) .
It seems like an obvious solution : With so much of our daily lives now virtual , why couldn ’ t our elections be moved online too ?
Voting online or via an app has even been tested in small elections a handful of times , but election security experts and even the founder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apps on the market , Voatz , say there ’ s a laundry list of reasons why this technology isn ’ t ready for prime time .
( Not to mention the fact that 19 percent of Americans still don ’ t have a smartphone , and as many as 21.3 million Americans still lack access to broadband internet , according to the Federal Communications Commission . )
“ I don ’ t know what I can say to explain this better : This is an incredibly dangerous idea , ” said Mike @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at MIT who has researched voting technology .
Specter told me there are a number of security and privacy concerns with voting online , which includes voting via an app , and that no technology so far has been able to solve these issues .
For starters , there is currently no way to ensure that each individual voter ’ s device is secure .
Malware covertly installed on a voter ’ s phone could potentially alter the voter ’ s ballot or prevent it from being properly transmitted , Specter said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , election security experts say there are too many steps required to ensure that the ballot a voter submits online is the one actually counted .
With a paper ballot , a voter marks their vote by hand and can visually verify it ’ s correct .
A hard copy is also retained , which can then be audited .
But with a digital vote , there are many steps that can create a gap between the vote cast and the vote counted .
“ If you think about it , we have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and there is no way to verify that all those versions are the same , ” said Duncan Buell , a professor of computer science and engineering at the University of South Carolina .
“ We have one version , which is what the voter sees in the form .
We have another version , which is what gets transmitted by the software .
We have a third version , which is the version that gets received by the storage system and then we have another version , which is what gets printed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” And if the vote is intercepted at any point in that chain , there is no way to verify that a change had been made .
It ’ d be like passing your paper ballot down a chain of strangers and trusting that nobody adjusted it before the vote was counted .
For the Utah County municipal election in which Grimmett voted by app , military and overseas voters and voters with disabilities could vote remotely using Voatz .
But a report earlier this year by Specter and his colleagues at MIT @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of information that a hacker could exploit , including learning how a user voted , changing the user ’ s ballot or even accessing the user ’ s private information .
Voatz claimed the researchers ’ methodology was flawed , but every online voting platform has faced similar challenges , according to Maggie MacAlpine , co-founder of Nordic Innovation Labs , a security consultancy firm that specializes in safeguarding elections .
MacAlpine said when election officials have run trials of other online voting software in the past , they invited white hat hackers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hack into a system the purpose of assessing vulnerabilities ) to test the software live .
“ They have always gotten in with laughable ease , ” MacAlpine said .
“ Every single time.
” It ’ s a longstanding problem , too .
In 2010 , for example , Washington , D.C. , was considering a new online voting platform and invited researchers from the University of Michigan to test it .
But when the Michigan fight song began playing after every ballot was successfully cast , it was clear the system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had hoped .
And as the MIT analysis of Voatz shows , things haven ’ t gotten much better in the last decade .
MacAlpine noted that even if there was a completely secure system , there ’ s currently no way to have an online vote that is both anonymous and auditable .
An anonymous vote protects against voter coercion , suppression , or vote selling .
An auditable vote protects against any errors or breaches , because officials can conduct a recount .
But that combination , which is possible with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet possible online .
Voatz , though not the only online voting vendor in the market , has attracted a lot of scrutiny because it has been used by multiple state and local elections to facilitate absentee voting .
The company ’ s co-founder and CEO , Nimit Sawhney , takes issue with a lot of the criticism the company has received , saying there are multiple layers to security and accuracy that protect against the issues raised .
But even Sawhney said that at this point , the company couldn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Nationwide would be a huge stretch , ” Sawhney said .
“ We are a tiny little startup .
There are about 25 people on our team .
For us to be able to claim that we can do elections for 200 million people on a smartphone ?
That would be naive.
” So what ’ s a country to do when a pandemic is forcing us apart , but an online election is still a science fiction dream ?
Each of the experts I spoke to said the same thing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to start now , to make sure ballots are printed off and mailed in time , and that voters know their options for casting a ballot .
In-person voting will still most likely take place as well .
But experts told me if we want those well-spaced lines for the ballot boxes to be less than a few miles long , we ’ ll have to vastly ramp up mail-in voting by November .
“ We ’ re going to have a hard time doing it this year , ” Buell said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
”

At 106, MacCene Grimmett is one of the oldest voters in the state of Utah. Though women didn’t have the right to vote when she was born in 1913, by the time she was of voting age, the 19th Amendment had passed. She has voted in every election since, she told her local Fox affiliate, including the Utah County municipal general election last November.
But that time, the centenarian cast her ballot in a novel way: She voted via an app.
America is 174 days away from a presidential election. It’s also in the middle of a pandemic that upended normal life, requiring mass shutdowns and social distancing. Those two things don’t exactly jibe.
Having millions of Americans stand in crowded polling places for hours to cast a ballot on Election Day sounds like the makings of a public health disaster — especially if there is a second surge of COVID-19 infections in the fall, as some experts predict. So now, election officials are looking for ways to hold elections remotely. One option that has been proposed is voting via an app on a smartphone or electronic device, just like Grimmett did last fall (though so far, states seem to only be considering this option for certain groups of voters, such as voters with disabilities).
It seems like an obvious solution: With so much of our daily lives now virtual, why couldn’t our elections be moved online too?
Why switching to vote-by-mail is tougher than it seems | FiveThirtyEight
Voting online or via an app has even been tested in small elections a handful of times, but election security experts and even the founder of one of the most prominent voting apps on the market, Voatz, say there’s a laundry list of reasons why this technology isn’t ready for prime time. (Not to mention the fact that 19 percent of Americans still don’t have a smartphone, and as many as 21.3 million Americans still lack access to broadband internet, according to the Federal Communications Commission.)
“I don’t know what I can say to explain this better: This is an incredibly dangerous idea,” said Mike Specter, a computer science Ph.D. student at MIT who has researched voting technology.
Specter told me there are a number of security and privacy concerns with voting online, which includes voting via an app, and that no technology so far has been able to solve these issues.
For starters, there is currently no way to ensure that each individual voter’s device is secure. Malware covertly installed on a voter’s phone could potentially alter the voter’s ballot or prevent it from being properly transmitted, Specter said. And even if the device is clean, election security experts say there are too many steps required to ensure that the ballot a voter submits online is the one actually counted. With a paper ballot, a voter marks their vote by hand and can visually verify it’s correct. A hard copy is also retained, which can then be audited. But with a digital vote, there are many steps that can create a gap between the vote cast and the vote counted.
“If you think about it, we have several versions of what that vote is and there is no way to verify that all those versions are the same,” said Duncan Buell, a professor of computer science and engineering at the University of South Carolina. “We have one version, which is what the voter sees in the form. We have another version, which is what gets transmitted by the software. We have a third version, which is the version that gets received by the storage system and then we have another version, which is what gets printed out and tallied by the election officials.”
And if the vote is intercepted at any point in that chain, there is no way to verify that a change had been made. It’d be like passing your paper ballot down a chain of strangers and trusting that nobody adjusted it before the vote was counted.
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For the Utah County municipal election in which Grimmett voted by app, military and overseas voters and voters with disabilities could vote remotely using Voatz. But a report earlier this year by Specter and his colleagues at MIT found multiple security vulnerabilities in the chain of information that a hacker could exploit, including learning how a user voted, changing the user’s ballot or even accessing the user’s private information.
Voatz claimed the researchers’ methodology was flawed, but every online voting platform has faced similar challenges, according to Maggie MacAlpine, co-founder of Nordic Innovation Labs, a security consultancy firm that specializes in safeguarding elections. MacAlpine said when election officials have run trials of other online voting software in the past, they invited white hat hackers (computer security experts who attempt to hack into a system the purpose of assessing vulnerabilities) to test the software live.
“They have always gotten in with laughable ease,” MacAlpine said. “Every single time.”
It’s a longstanding problem, too. In 2010, for example, Washington, D.C., was considering a new online voting platform and invited researchers from the University of Michigan to test it. But when the Michigan fight song began playing after every ballot was successfully cast, it was clear the system wasn’t as secure as officials had hoped. And as the MIT analysis of Voatz shows, things haven’t gotten much better in the last decade.
MacAlpine noted that even if there was a completely secure system, there’s currently no way to have an online vote that is both anonymous and auditable. An anonymous vote protects against voter coercion, suppression, or vote selling. An auditable vote protects against any errors or breaches, because officials can conduct a recount. But that combination, which is possible with a paper ballot, isn’t yet possible online.
Voatz, though not the only online voting vendor in the market, has attracted a lot of scrutiny because it has been used by multiple state and local elections to facilitate absentee voting. The company’s co-founder and CEO, Nimit Sawhney, takes issue with a lot of the criticism the company has received, saying there are multiple layers to security and accuracy that protect against the issues raised. But even Sawhney said that at this point, the company couldn’t handle this fall’s presidential election.
“Nationwide would be a huge stretch,” Sawhney said. “We are a tiny little startup. There are about 25 people on our team. For us to be able to claim that we can do elections for 200 million people on a smartphone? That would be naive.”
So what’s a country to do when a pandemic is forcing us apart, but an online election is still a science fiction dream? Each of the experts I spoke to said the same thing: vote by mail.
Planning needs to start now, to make sure ballots are printed off and mailed in time, and that voters know their options for casting a ballot. In-person voting will still most likely take place as well. But experts told me if we want those well-spaced lines for the ballot boxes to be less than a few miles long, we’ll have to vastly ramp up mail-in voting by November.
“We’re going to have a hard time doing it this year,” Buell said. “But we have almost no choice.”


fivethirtyeight--2020-05-13--Why Some Democrats May Be Willing To Look Past The Allegation Against Biden

Over the past few years , Americans have grown increasingly divided on issues of sexual harassment and misconduct .
In the wake of the # MeToo movement , rank-and-file Republicans have become even more skeptical of women who report harassment .
But now Democratic voters are facing their own high-profile # MeToo test .
Former Vice President Joe Biden has been accused of sexual assault by Tara Reade , an aide in his Senate office in 1992 and 1993 .
Biden has denied the allegation , saying that it “ never , never happened , ” but , of course @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time that Biden has been accused of improper behavior .
The previous allegations weren ’ t as grave , but last year , eight women , including Reade , came forward to say that he had made them uncomfortable by invading their personal space or touching them inappropriately .
So far , though , relatively few Democratic voters seem ready to abandon Biden over the allegation , despite its seriousness .
According to surveys from HuffPost/YouGov and Economist/YouGov at least around half of Democrats haven ’ t heard enough to say or are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden are credible .
Only about 15 percent of Democrats say the allegations are credible .
It ’ s tempting to interpret this as a sign that Democrats aren ’ t as committed to believing women when the reputation of their own presidential nominee is on the line .
But the reality is complicated .
Even though Democrats are much more supportive of # MeToo issues than Republicans are overall , that doesn ’ t mean Democrats are unified — some , like young liberal men , are a lot less progressive on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s more , there ’ s evidence that voters ’ views of the Democratic Party and Biden himself are likely doing more to shape their reactions to Reade ’ s allegation than their preexisting stances on the # MeToo movement are .
And with so many Democrats focused on defeating President Trump — who has far more sexual assault allegations against him — it ’ s possible that many Democrats are willing to look past this accusation .
Even at the height of the # MeToo movement , not all Democrats thought the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was a good thing .
And there ’ s still a fair amount of variation among Democrats on these questions .
We looked at 13 waves of a survey administered by Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape from October 3 , 2019 , to January 2 , 2020 , and found that Democrats were divided on how they perceived sexual harassment and gender equality .
Some of these differences are predictable .
Democrats who identified as conservative , for example , were more likely than moderate or liberal Democrats to say that women who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they solved .
But some divisions were less foreseeable .
Young men , for instance , were more likely than older men or young women to say that women who complained about harassment caused more problems than they solved — particularly young men who identified as very liberal .
In our analysis , we found that 32 percent of very liberal men under 45 held this view compared with just 16 percent of very liberal women in the same age group .
What ’ s more , only 26 percent of very liberal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And on the question of whether respondents would be more comfortable with a man than a woman as a boss , it was these younger , very liberal men who disproportionately said that they would be more comfortable with a male boss ( 31 percent ) .
Just 13 percent of very liberal women under 45 said the same , as did 25 percent of very liberal men 45 and older .
This kind of complexity isn ’ t that surprising , though , because sexual misconduct hasn ’ t been a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a working paper by political scientists Mirya Holman and Nathan Kalmoe , there weren ’ t substantial differences between Republicans ’ and Democrats ’ views of the importance or existence of sexual misconduct prior to 2016 .
And setting partisan differences aside , women tend to be more supportive of the # MeToo movement and its goals than men are .
The notion that young lefty men are substantially less progressive than older men on gender issues and sexual misconduct is a little less intuitive , but it squares with other research @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who supported Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary were disproportionately likely to hold sexist viewpoints .
Partisanship and ideology are likely playing a big role It ’ s also possible that most voters ’ reactions to Reade ’ s allegations don ’ t reflect their views about # MeToo at all .
For instance , it might seem reasonable to expect that Republicans and young , very liberal men would be most likely to disbelieve the allegations against Biden .
But that ’ s not really what we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data .
According to a HuffPost/YouGov poll from May , the opposite is actually true — despite their greater skepticism about the # MeToo movement , Republican voters are much more likely than Democrats to say that Reade ’ s allegation is credible , perhaps in part because the accusation was covered widely in right-leaning media outlets when it was first revealed .
And even though the Nationscape data indicates that younger male Democrats are generally less sympathetic toward women who report harassment , Democrats under 45 are much likelier than Democrats 45 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allegations credible — and more than twice as likely to say that Biden should be replaced as the nominee .
These groups don ’ t have a lot in common on # MeToo , but what they do share is a propensity to dislike Biden — Republicans because of partisanship , and younger Democrats because they were disproportionately in Sanders ’ s camp .
Political scientists say that ’ s not very surprising .
“ Voters are not necessarily looking at this allegation and thinking about it purely as a # MeToo issue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ political science professor at Rutgers University-Camden .
“ Most are seeing the allegation through the lens of their party and their ideology , and that ’ s shaping how they process the information that ’ s coming out and evaluate whether it ’ s credible.
” Having Trump — who has been accused of sexual assault by some 25 women — as a foil may also help Biden .
“ Even among # MeToo supporters who might doubt Biden over the allegation , most will support him over Trump because of the extensive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told us in an email .
Kalmoe also thinks that Trump might avoid making as much political hay out of Reade ’ s allegation as he otherwise might to avoid drawing attention to the slew of accusations against him .
At this point , a lot depends on what happens next — specifically , whether more women come forward with sexual assault allegations that are as serious as Reade ’ s .
But it ’ s possible that even if it doesn ’ t change the polls much , this single accusation could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about their nominee .
For instance , according to polling by Morning Consult , Biden ’ s favorability numbers fell as the Reade story started to gain more traction in the media .
And Jesse Rhodes , a political science professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst , told us in an interview that , while Biden probably won ’ t lose many votes over Reade ’ s allegation , some Democrats might be less likely to volunteer for or donate money to his campaign .
But the response to Reade ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the # MeToo movement doesn ’ t exist in a vacuum , even for Democratic voters .
“ Some # MeToo advocates are evaluating these allegations with a nuance that goes beyond the simple ‘ believe women ’ motto , ” Kalmoe said .
And with Trump on the ballot against Biden , Democrats might be even more inclined to cast a skeptical eye on Reade ’ s allegations .

Over the past few years, Americans have grown increasingly divided on issues of sexual harassment and misconduct. In the wake of the #MeToo movement, rank-and-file Republicans have become even more skeptical of women who report harassment.
But now Democratic voters are facing their own high-profile #MeToo test.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has been accused of sexual assault by Tara Reade, an aide in his Senate office in 1992 and 1993. Biden has denied the allegation, saying that it “never, never happened,” but, of course, this isn’t the first time that Biden has been accused of improper behavior. The previous allegations weren’t as grave, but last year, eight women, including Reade, came forward to say that he had made them uncomfortable by invading their personal space or touching them inappropriately.
So far, though, relatively few Democratic voters seem ready to abandon Biden over the allegation, despite its seriousness. According to surveys from HuffPost/YouGov and Economist/YouGov at least around half of Democrats haven’t heard enough to say or are unsure whether they believe the allegations against Biden are credible. Only about 15 percent of Democrats say the allegations are credible.
It’s tempting to interpret this as a sign that Democrats aren’t as committed to believing women when the reputation of their own presidential nominee is on the line. But the reality is complicated. Even though Democrats are much more supportive of #MeToo issues than Republicans are overall, that doesn’t mean Democrats are unified — some, like young liberal men, are a lot less progressive on these issues than others. What’s more, there’s evidence that voters’ views of the Democratic Party and Biden himself are likely doing more to shape their reactions to Reade’s allegation than their preexisting stances on the #MeToo movement are. And with so many Democrats focused on defeating President Trump — who has far more sexual assault allegations against him — it’s possible that many Democrats are willing to look past this accusation.
Democrats aren’t uniformly progressive on #MeToo issues
Even at the height of the #MeToo movement, not all Democrats thought the increased attention on sexual harassment and assault was a good thing. And there’s still a fair amount of variation among Democrats on these questions. We looked at 13 waves of a survey administered by Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape from October 3, 2019, to January 2, 2020, and found that Democrats were divided on how they perceived sexual harassment and gender equality. Some of these differences are predictable. Democrats who identified as conservative, for example, were more likely than moderate or liberal Democrats to say that women who complained about harassment caused more problems than they solved. But some divisions were less foreseeable.
Young men, for instance, were more likely than older men or young women to say that women who complained about harassment caused more problems than they solved — particularly young men who identified as very liberal. In our analysis, we found that 32 percent of very liberal men under 45 held this view compared with just 16 percent of very liberal women in the same age group. What’s more, only 26 percent of very liberal men 45 and older held this view.
And on the question of whether respondents would be more comfortable with a man than a woman as a boss, it was these younger, very liberal men who disproportionately said that they would be more comfortable with a male boss (31 percent). Just 13 percent of very liberal women under 45 said the same, as did 25 percent of very liberal men 45 and older.
This kind of complexity isn’t that surprising, though, because sexual misconduct hasn’t been a partisan issue for very long. According to a working paper by political scientists Mirya Holman and Nathan Kalmoe, there weren’t substantial differences between Republicans’ and Democrats’ views of the importance or existence of sexual misconduct prior to 2016. And setting partisan differences aside, women tend to be more supportive of the #MeToo movement and its goals than men are. The notion that young lefty men are substantially less progressive than older men on gender issues and sexual misconduct is a little less intuitive, but it squares with other research indicating that Democrats (particularly men) who supported Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary were disproportionately likely to hold sexist viewpoints.
Partisanship and ideology are likely playing a big role
It’s also possible that most voters’ reactions to Reade’s allegations don’t reflect their views about #MeToo at all. For instance, it might seem reasonable to expect that Republicans and young, very liberal men would be most likely to disbelieve the allegations against Biden. But that’s not really what we’re seeing in the most recent polling data.
According to a HuffPost/YouGov poll from May, the opposite is actually true — despite their greater skepticism about the #MeToo movement, Republican voters are much more likely than Democrats to say that Reade’s allegation is credible, perhaps in part because the accusation was covered widely in right-leaning media outlets when it was first revealed. And even though the Nationscape data indicates that younger male Democrats are generally less sympathetic toward women who report harassment, Democrats under 45 are much likelier than Democrats 45 and over to find Reade’s allegations credible — and more than twice as likely to say that Biden should be replaced as the nominee.
These groups don’t have a lot in common on #MeToo, but what they do share is a propensity to dislike Biden — Republicans because of partisanship, and younger Democrats because they were disproportionately in Sanders’s camp. Political scientists say that’s not very surprising. “Voters are not necessarily looking at this allegation and thinking about it purely as a #MeToo issue,” said Shauna Shames, a political science professor at Rutgers University-Camden. “Most are seeing the allegation through the lens of their party and their ideology, and that’s shaping how they process the information that’s coming out and evaluate whether it’s credible.”
Having Trump — who has been accused of sexual assault by some 25 women — as a foil may also help Biden. “Even among #MeToo supporters who might doubt Biden over the allegation, most will support him over Trump because of the extensive misconduct allegations against Trump,” Kalmoe told us in an email. Kalmoe also thinks that Trump might avoid making as much political hay out of Reade’s allegation as he otherwise might to avoid drawing attention to the slew of accusations against him.
At this point, a lot depends on what happens next — specifically, whether more women come forward with sexual assault allegations that are as serious as Reade’s. But it’s possible that even if it doesn’t change the polls much, this single accusation could hurt Biden by dampening Democrats’ feelings about their nominee. For instance, according to polling by Morning Consult, Biden’s favorability numbers fell as the Reade story started to gain more traction in the media. And Jesse Rhodes, a political science professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, told us in an interview that, while Biden probably won’t lose many votes over Reade’s allegation, some Democrats might be less likely to volunteer for or donate money to his campaign.
But the response to Reade’s latest allegation is also an important reminder that the #MeToo movement doesn’t exist in a vacuum, even for Democratic voters. “Some #MeToo advocates are evaluating these allegations with a nuance that goes beyond the simple ‘believe women’ motto,” Kalmoe said. And with Trump on the ballot against Biden, Democrats might be even more inclined to cast a skeptical eye on Reade’s allegations.


fivethirtyeight--2020-05-13--How The Elections In Nebraska And Wisconsin Managed Amid The Pandemic

Tuesday marked the first major in-person elections in more than a month — and there were good reasons to be worried about whether they ’ d go safely and smoothly amid the coronavirus pandemic .
Nebraska , which held its presidential and down-ballot primary elections , was one of just eight states never to issue a statewide stay-at-home order .
And Wisconsin , which held a special election in the 7th Congressional District , was a site of chaos on April 7 when it held its presidential primary in person .
But thankfully , it looks like both elections passed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s was even a notable success .
In both states , officials took tons of precautions to protect the health of voters and poll workers .
In Nebraska , each poll worker received a safety kit that included an N95 mask , gloves , hand sanitizer , disinfectant wipes and a face shield .
Polling places provided masks to voters who showed up without them , and poll workers were instructed to disinfect everything voters touched between every use .
In Wisconsin , the state also provided workers with personal protective equipment , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ places .
And in at least one jurisdiction , plastic screens separated workers from voters and curbside voting was also an option .
In both states , officials enforced social distancing , and each voter was given his or her own pen to vote with and then keep .
There were no reports of significant lines at polling places in either state , like there were in parts of Wisconsin last month .
The ruralness of the 7th District helped keep long lines from forming , and members of the Wisconsin National Guard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not feel comfortable working the election .
In Nebraska , even big cities were able to avoid closing many polling places , although election officials in Douglas County ( home to Omaha ) told FiveThirtyEight some polling places , such as those located in retirement communities , were closed due to the coronavirus threat .
In total , 200 of its usual 222 polling places were open yesterday and Douglas County Election Commissioner Brian Kruse said that if poll workers asked not to work the election , the county had plenty of time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the election going smoothly .
It also helped that in-person turnout was extremely light , thanks to the fact that a huge percentage of Nebraskans requested mail ballots .
No fewer than 493,393 of Nebraska ’ s 1,216,431 registered voters ( 41 percent ) requested an absentee ballot , a higher proportion than in Ohio ’ s primary ( 25 percent ) , Wisconsin ’ s primary ( 38 percent ) or yesterday ’ s Wisconsin special election ( 26 percent ) .
Notably , unlike those two states , Nebraska mailed every @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ballot , which may have contributed to the high rate of mail voting .
There was something else surprising about the number of ballots returned : Despite both a pandemic and an uncontested presidential race , Nebraska looks like it will shatter its 48-year-old record for most votes ever cast in a primary .
According to preliminary numbers , 471,434 Nebraskans turned out to vote , or 34 percent of the voting eligible population .
In 2016 , 23 percent of Nebraska ’ s VEP voted in the primary ; in 2012 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 20 percent voted .
This was the first time since 2004 that Democrats held a presidential primary in Nebraska ( in 2008 and 2016 , they held caucuses on a separate date ) , so that may have contributed to the jump ( even though the Democratic race was uncontested ) .
It ’ s also possible that turnout increased because the state invited everyone to vote by mail .
Oh , and we have some results to report to you as well .
Unsurprisingly , former Vice President Joe Biden won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 77 percent of the vote , but the more consequential result was nonprofit consultant and former 2018 contender Kara Eastman ’ s win in the Democratic primary for Nebraska ’ s 2nd Congressional District .
Eastman , a supporter of single-payer health care and unapologetic progressive , won 62 percent to 32 percent over lawyer Ann Ashford , who emphasized consensus-building and touted herself in TV ads as “ the one Democrat who can win , ” and will now have a rematch with Republican Rep. Don Bacon in November .
Meanwhile , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tom Tiffany defeated Democrat Tricia Zunker 57 percent to 43 percent .
The outcome was expected , but the margin was tighter than President Trump ’ s 20-point win there in 2016 .
That could be a good sign for Democrats , but special elections are really only predictive of the national political environment in the aggregate .
And yesterday ’ s other special election , in the California 25th District , remains too close to call ( although it doesn ’ t look promising for Democrats ) .
As of 9 a.m. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Christy Smith 56 percent to 44 percent .
We ’ ll have more to say on these two races when we know more from the Golden State .
Why switching to vote-by-mail is tougher than it seems | FiveThirtyEight

Tuesday marked the first major in-person elections in more than a month — and there were good reasons to be worried about whether they’d go safely and smoothly amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Nebraska, which held its presidential and down-ballot primary elections, was one of just eight states never to issue a statewide stay-at-home order. And Wisconsin, which held a special election in the 7th Congressional District, was a site of chaos on April 7 when it held its presidential primary in person. But thankfully, it looks like both elections passed without major incident — and Nebraska’s was even a notable success.
In both states, officials took tons of precautions to protect the health of voters and poll workers. In Nebraska, each poll worker received a safety kit that included an N95 mask, gloves, hand sanitizer, disinfectant wipes and a face shield. Polling places provided masks to voters who showed up without them, and poll workers were instructed to disinfect everything voters touched between every use. In Wisconsin, the state also provided workers with personal protective equipment, and there were hand-sanitizer stations at polling places. And in at least one jurisdiction, plastic screens separated workers from voters and curbside voting was also an option. In both states, officials enforced social distancing, and each voter was given his or her own pen to vote with and then keep.
There were no reports of significant lines at polling places in either state, like there were in parts of Wisconsin last month. The ruralness of the 7th District helped keep long lines from forming, and members of the Wisconsin National Guard filled in for poll workers who did not feel comfortable working the election. In Nebraska, even big cities were able to avoid closing many polling places, although election officials in Douglas County (home to Omaha) told FiveThirtyEight some polling places, such as those located in retirement communities, were closed due to the coronavirus threat. In total, 200 of its usual 222 polling places were open yesterday and Douglas County Election Commissioner Brian Kruse said that if poll workers asked not to work the election, the county had plenty of time to find replacements, which helped with the election going smoothly.
It also helped that in-person turnout was extremely light, thanks to the fact that a huge percentage of Nebraskans requested mail ballots. No fewer than 493,393 of Nebraska’s 1,216,431 registered voters (41 percent) requested an absentee ballot, a higher proportion than in Ohio’s primary (25 percent), Wisconsin’s primary (38 percent) or yesterday’s Wisconsin special election (26 percent). Notably, unlike those two states, Nebraska mailed every voter a form to request an absentee ballot, which may have contributed to the high rate of mail voting.
There was something else surprising about the number of ballots returned: Despite both a pandemic and an uncontested presidential race, Nebraska looks like it will shatter its 48-year-old record for most votes ever cast in a primary. According to preliminary numbers, 471,434 Nebraskans turned out to vote, or 34 percent of the voting eligible population. In 2016, 23 percent of Nebraska’s VEP voted in the primary; in 2012, 22 percent voted; and in 2008, 20 percent voted. This was the first time since 2004 that Democrats held a presidential primary in Nebraska (in 2008 and 2016, they held caucuses on a separate date), so that may have contributed to the jump (even though the Democratic race was uncontested). It’s also possible that turnout increased because the state invited everyone to vote by mail.
Oh, and we have some results to report to you as well. Unsurprisingly, former Vice President Joe Biden won Nebraska’s Democratic presidential primary with 77 percent of the vote, but the more consequential result was nonprofit consultant and former 2018 contender Kara Eastman’s win in the Democratic primary for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Eastman, a supporter of single-payer health care and unapologetic progressive, won 62 percent to 32 percent over lawyer Ann Ashford, who emphasized consensus-building and touted herself in TV ads as “the one Democrat who can win,” and will now have a rematch with Republican Rep. Don Bacon in November.
Meanwhile, in the Wisconsin 7th special, Republican Tom Tiffany defeated Democrat Tricia Zunker 57 percent to 43 percent. The outcome was expected, but the margin was tighter than President Trump’s 20-point win there in 2016. That could be a good sign for Democrats, but special elections are really only predictive of the national political environment in the aggregate. And yesterday’s other special election, in the California 25th District, remains too close to call (although it doesn’t look promising for Democrats). As of 9 a.m. Eastern, Republican Mike Garcia led Democrat Christy Smith 56 percent to 44 percent. We’ll have more to say on these two races when we know more from the Golden State.
Why switching to vote-by-mail is tougher than it seems | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirtyeight--2020-05-14--Politics Podcast: Can COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Be Stopped?

As COVID-19 has spread across the globe , so have conspiracy theories about the origin and severity of the virus @ @ @ @ @ this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , political scientist and conspiracy theory researcher Joseph @ @ @ @ @ senior science writer Maggie Koerth to discuss why these theories develop and whether they can @ @ @ @ @ listen to the episode by clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player @ @ @ @ @ in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are @ @ @ @ @ how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new @ @ @ @ @ leaving us a rating and review on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or @ @ @ @ @ vs. bad polling ” ?
Get in touch by email , on Twitter or in @ @ @

As COVID-19 has spread across the globe, so have conspiracy theories about the origin and severity of the virus that causes it. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, political scientist and conspiracy theory researcher Joseph Uscinski joins Galen Druke and senior science writer Maggie Koerth to discuss why these theories develop and whether they can be stopped.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirtyeight--2020-05-15--Democrats Say The Worst Of The Coronavirus Is Yet To Come. Republicans Say The Worst Is Over.

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
So far , Americans have largely supported using social distancing to slow the spread of the new coronavirus .
According to a Washington Post/University of Maryland poll published this week , most Americans agree that it ’ s necessary to wear a mask , stay at home when possible , avoid gatherings and keep 6 feet away from others in public .
And while Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say these measures are important , sizable majorities in both parties still agree that they are necessary .
But while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about current social distancing measures , there are also signs that they increasingly disagree about where the crisis is headed , with Democrats saying the worst is yet to come and Republicans saying the worst is behind us .
According to a CNN poll released this week , nearly three-quarters of Democrats said the worst of the crisis is still ahead of us , while only about a quarter of Republicans said the same .
This marked a 15 percentage-point drop among Democrats since CNN last asked the question in April , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ YouGov/Economist poll also found a similar divide this week ; 58 percent of Democrats said the pandemic is going to get worse compared with only 20 percent of Republicans .
( The pollster included a third choice , “ We are currently in the worst part of the pandemic , ” which just over 20 percent of both Democrats and Republicans chose . )
And a daily tracking poll conducted by Navigator Research also found that between mid-April and early May , the share of Americans who thought the worst was yet to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number has been ticking back up again since May 4 , which may reflect increased concern that the virus will spread as more states begin to ease restrictions on businesses and public gatherings .
The polls this week also show that Americans are adjusting their expectations about when the need for social distancing is likely to end .
According to the Washington Post/University of Maryland poll , two-thirds of Americans think that it will be at least the end of July before people can safely gather in groups of 10 or more , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a month ago .
This month ’ s total includes 80 percent of Democrats and 54 of Republicans .
And this week ’ s YouGov/Economist poll found that a 47 percent plurality — including a third of Republicans and almost two-thirds of Democrats — believe it will be at least September before it is safe to end social distancing measures .
Concerns about catching the virus have stayed fairly consistent over the month of May so far .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s coronavirus poll tracker , the share of Americans who say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very ” concerned that they or someone they know will get sick stayed mostly steady at about 68 percent .
And the share of Americans who say they ’ re concerned about the virus ’ s impact on the economy has also stayed about the same — hovering at around 87 percent — for the past six weeks .
The share of Americans who approve of Trump ’ s handling of the virus response , however , has declined about 4 points over the past month , though in the shorter term his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent approving of the job he ’ s doing handling the pandemic this week and 43.5 percent approving last week .
Attitudes toward Trump ’ s handling of the crisis are , expectedly , very partisan , with a majority of Republicans approving and a majority of Democrats opposed .
Feelings seem to be more mixed about leaders outside the federal government , however — according to a new Pew Research poll , state and local officials , on average , continue to enjoy more bipartisan support than Trump .
However , Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state officials ’ work faster than Democrats are .
For instance , since March , the share of Republicans who think their local elected officeholders are doing a “ good ” or “ excellent ” job has declined by 12 points , while the share of Democrats who say the same has remained unchanged at 66 percent .
Likewise , Republican approval of the job state officials were doing declined by 12 percentage points , while Democratic approval dropped by only 5 points .
Additionally , Republicans , who were more likely than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as those at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention favorably in March were less likely to do so now .
Sixty-eight percent of Republicans said health officials are doing a “ good ” or “ excellent ” job , down 16 points since March , while about three-quarters of Democrats felt health officials were doing a good job in both polls .
However , at this point , the majority of Americans are not yet frequenting public places — despite growing disagreement on where the coronavirus crisis is headed next .
A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans about whether they ’ re going to public places and socializing with others , and it didn ’ t find much of a partisan gap in reported behavior .
So for now at least , it seems like many Americans are staying put , although that might change in the coming weeks .
• According to a Morning Consult/Politico poll , 71 percent of voters — including 58 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats — said that the president and vice president ought to wear face masks in public places @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to wear a mask during a tour of a mask production facility in Phoenix , and Vice President Mike Pence didn ’ t wear one when visiting a coronavirus testing site at the Mayo Clinic last month , although he later said he should have ( he did wear one when visiting a ventilator factory in Indiana a few days later ) .
• A YouGov/CBS News poll found that Americans were evenly split on whether they thought the new coronavirus was “ something from nature ” or “ created by people , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Republicans saying it was manufactured and over two-thirds of Democrats saying it occurred naturally .
Scientists have not found evidence that the virus was created .
• Half of Americans said they would be “ somewhat ” or “ very ” likely to use a cell phone-based contact-tracing system to determine if they had come into contact with someone who was diagnosed with the coronavirus if the system were established by the CDC and public health officials .
But the other half of respondents said they wouldn ’ t use such a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And if the effort were spearheaded by cell phone or internet providers , major tech companies , or the federal government , only about a third of Americans said they ’ d be likely to use it .
• An SSRS/CNN poll conducted last week found former Vice President Joe Biden with a 5-point lead over Trump nationally , but in 15 battleground states , Trump led Biden 52 percent to 45 percent .
The poll did not break out voter preference by battleground state , however ; it sampled people in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in aggregate .
That makes it hard to know in which states Trump may have an advantage .
• According to polling from the Levada Center , an independent pollster in Moscow , Russian President Vladimir Putin ’ s approval ratings have fallen to 59 percent , the lowest they have been in more than six years .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 52.0 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president , while 43.6 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -8.4 points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 43.3 percent approved and 51.4 percent disapproved ( for a net approval rating of -8.1 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 44.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 51.4 percent , for a net approval rating of -7.1 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 7.7 percentage points ( 48.9 percent to 41.2 percent ) .
A week ago , Democrats led Republicans by 7.9 points ( 48.5 percent to 40.6 percent ) .
At @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrats by 7.8 points ( 48.6 percent to 40.8 percent ) .
Check out all the polls we ’ ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections .

Democrats Say The Worst Of The Coronavirus Is Yet To Come. Republicans Say The Worst Is Over.
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
So far, Americans have largely supported using social distancing to slow the spread of the new coronavirus. According to a Washington Post/University of Maryland poll published this week, most Americans agree that it’s necessary to wear a mask, stay at home when possible, avoid gatherings and keep 6 feet away from others in public. And while Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say these measures are important, sizable majorities in both parties still agree that they are necessary. But while Americans are mostly on the same page about current social distancing measures, there are also signs that they increasingly disagree about where the crisis is headed, with Democrats saying the worst is yet to come and Republicans saying the worst is behind us.
According to a CNN poll released this week, nearly three-quarters of Democrats said the worst of the crisis is still ahead of us, while only about a quarter of Republicans said the same. This marked a 15 percentage-point drop among Democrats since CNN last asked the question in April, and a 44-point drop among Republicans. A YouGov/Economist poll also found a similar divide this week; 58 percent of Democrats said the pandemic is going to get worse compared with only 20 percent of Republicans. (The pollster included a third choice, “We are currently in the worst part of the pandemic,” which just over 20 percent of both Democrats and Republicans chose.) And a daily tracking poll conducted by Navigator Research also found that between mid-April and early May, the share of Americans who thought the worst was yet to come declined sharply. However, that number has been ticking back up again since May 4, which may reflect increased concern that the virus will spread as more states begin to ease restrictions on businesses and public gatherings.
The polls this week also show that Americans are adjusting their expectations about when the need for social distancing is likely to end. According to the Washington Post/University of Maryland poll, two-thirds of Americans think that it will be at least the end of July before people can safely gather in groups of 10 or more, up from 45 percent who thought so a month ago. This month’s total includes 80 percent of Democrats and 54 of Republicans. And this week’s YouGov/Economist poll found that a 47 percent plurality — including a third of Republicans and almost two-thirds of Democrats — believe it will be at least September before it is safe to end social distancing measures.
Concerns about catching the virus have stayed fairly consistent over the month of May so far. According to FiveThirtyEight’s coronavirus poll tracker, the share of Americans who say they are “somewhat” or “very” concerned that they or someone they know will get sick stayed mostly steady at about 68 percent.
And the share of Americans who say they’re concerned about the virus’s impact on the economy has also stayed about the same — hovering at around 87 percent — for the past six weeks.
The share of Americans who approve of Trump’s handling of the virus response, however, has declined about 4 points over the past month, though in the shorter term his rating remains essentially unchanged, with 43.3 percent approving of the job he’s doing handling the pandemic this week and 43.5 percent approving last week.
Attitudes toward Trump’s handling of the crisis are, expectedly, very partisan, with a majority of Republicans approving and a majority of Democrats opposed. Feelings seem to be more mixed about leaders outside the federal government, however — according to a new Pew Research poll, state and local officials, on average, continue to enjoy more bipartisan support than Trump. However, Republicans appear to be souring on local and state officials’ work faster than Democrats are. For instance, since March, the share of Republicans who think their local elected officeholders are doing a “good” or “excellent” job has declined by 12 points, while the share of Democrats who say the same has remained unchanged at 66 percent. Likewise, Republican approval of the job state officials were doing declined by 12 percentage points, while Democratic approval dropped by only 5 points. Additionally, Republicans, who were more likely than Democrats to rate public health officials such as those at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention favorably in March were less likely to do so now. Sixty-eight percent of Republicans said health officials are doing a “good” or “excellent” job, down 16 points since March, while about three-quarters of Democrats felt health officials were doing a good job in both polls.
However, at this point, the majority of Americans are not yet frequenting public places — despite growing disagreement on where the coronavirus crisis is headed next. A Morning Consult poll conducted last week asked Americans about whether they’re going to public places and socializing with others, and it didn’t find much of a partisan gap in reported behavior. So for now at least, it seems like many Americans are staying put, although that might change in the coming weeks.
Other polling bites
According to a Morning Consult/Politico poll , 71 percent of voters — including 58 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats — said that the president and vice president ought to wear face masks in public places when they travel. Trump recently failed to wear a mask during a tour of a mask production facility in Phoenix, and Vice President Mike Pence didn’t wear one when visiting a coronavirus testing site at the Mayo Clinic last month, although he later said he should have (he did wear one when visiting a ventilator factory in Indiana a few days later).
71 percent of voters — including 58 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of Democrats — said that the president and vice president ought to wear face masks in public places when they travel. Trump recently failed to wear a mask during a tour of a mask production facility in Phoenix, and Vice President Mike Pence didn’t wear one when visiting a coronavirus testing site at the Mayo Clinic last month, although he later said he should have (he did wear one when visiting a ventilator factory in Indiana a few days later). A YouGov/CBS News poll found that Americans were evenly split on whether they thought the new coronavirus was “something from nature” or “created by people, on purpose,” with about two-thirds of Republicans saying it was manufactured and over two-thirds of Democrats saying it occurred naturally. Scientists have not found evidence that the virus was created.
Half of Americans said they would be “somewhat” or “very” likely to use a cell phone-based contact-tracing system to determine if they had come into contact with someone who was diagnosed with the coronavirus if the system were established by the CDC and public health officials. But the other half of respondents said they wouldn’t use such a system, according to an Ipsos/Axios poll. And if the effort were spearheaded by cell phone or internet providers, major tech companies, or the federal government, only about a third of Americans said they’d be likely to use it.
An SSRS/CNN poll conducted last week found former Vice President Joe Biden with a 5-point lead over Trump nationally, but in 15 battleground states, Trump led Biden 52 percent to 45 percent. The poll did not break out voter preference by battleground state, however; it sampled people in 15 battleground states and reported the results in aggregate. That makes it hard to know in which states Trump may have an advantage.
According to polling from the Levada Center, an independent pollster in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings have fallen to 59 percent, the lowest they have been in more than six years.
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 43.6 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.0 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -8.4 points). At this time last week, 43.3 percent approved and 51.4 percent disapproved (for a net approval rating of -8.1 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 44.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 51.4 percent, for a net approval rating of -7.1 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.7 percentage points (48.9 percent to 41.2 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7.9 points (48.5 percent to 40.6 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 7.8 points (48.6 percent to 40.8 percent).
Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.
CORRECTION (May 15, 2020, 10:01 a.m.): A previous version of this article reversed President Trump’s job approval numbers: 43.6 percent of Americans approve of the job he’s doing and 52.0 percent disapprove, not the other way around.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Does The U.S. Have A Coronavirus Recovery Plan?


fivethirtyeight--2020-05-15--The Politics Of COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories

On this week ’ s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , Galen Druke and senior science writer Maggie Koerth speak to Joseph @ @ @ @ @ professor at the University of Miami , about why conspiracy theories are spreading amid the @ @ @

On this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke and senior science writer Maggie Koerth speak to Joseph Uscinski, a political science professor at the University of Miami, about why conspiracy theories are spreading amid the COVID-19 pandemic.


fivethirtyeight--2020-05-18--Politics Podcast: Coronavirus Is Becoming Even More Partisan

After spending much of the past three and a half years out of the spotlight , former President Barack Obama @ @ @ @ @ of President Trump ’ s administration .
In turn , Trump has called for Obama @ @ @ @ @ investigated .
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew asks who @ @ @ @ @ conflict between Obama and Trump in an election year .
They also look at evidence @ @ @ @ @ on the response to the coronavirus pandemic are growing increasingly partisan .
You can listen @ @ @ @ @ the “ play ” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in @ @ @ @ @ or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , learn how @ @ @ @ @ Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving @ @ @ @ @ on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. @ @ @ @ @ in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments .

After spending much of the past three and a half years out of the spotlight, former President Barack Obama has become more vocally critical of President Trump’s administration. In turn, Trump has called for Obama and his administration to be investigated. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew asks who is benefiting from a high-profile conflict between Obama and Trump in an election year. They also look at evidence suggesting that Americans’ views on the response to the coronavirus pandemic are growing increasingly partisan.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.