fivethirtyeight--2020-06-18--Which States Are Taking on Police Reform After George Floyd?

This article was published in partnership with The Marshall Project , a nonprofit news organization covering the U.S. criminal justice system .
Eighteen days after George Floyd was killed by a Minneapolis police officer , the Minnesota state Legislature introduced 48 bills in a special session on law enforcement .
On the same day , Iowa Gov .
Kim Reynolds signed a new bill restricting police chokeholds , and New York Gov .
Andrew Cuomo signed a series of police reforms into law , including repealing an obscure law , section 50-a , that shielded police disciplinary records from public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are proposing changes to how police operate .
In the three weeks after Floyd ’ s death and the ensuing nationwide protests against police brutality , 16 state legislatures have discussed the issues roiling the country .
As of Tuesday , legislatures had introduced , amended or passed 159 bills and resolutions related to policing , including bills that were introduced in both chambers , according to a database compiled by the National Conference of State Legislatures , a nonpartisan association of state lawmakers .
Of course , in politics , talking about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it is another .
By June 16 , nine of these bills have become law , and seven more are waiting for governors ’ signatures .
In all , three state legislatures — Colorado , Iowa and New York — have passed policing bills .
Looking at action in the statehouse has its limits , because police reform usually happens on the local level , as cities and towns decide how to fund and regulate their own police forces .
The sheer number of new bills can also be misleading : some state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the same topic and pass them as one omnibus bill .
Still , state legislatures can hold tremendous power on issues like setting pensions for police officers , and the wave of new state-level bills represents how swiftly the conversation around policing has shifted since the death of Floyd .
An analysis of the conference ’ s database shows that the majority of the reform bills introduced since Floyd ’ s death focus on police oversight and regulating use of force , like banning chokeholds , building public databases of traffic stops @ @ @ @ @ @ @ misconduct .
Jamaal Bailey , a New York state senator who represents parts of the Bronx and Westchester County , said it ’ s been a humbling experience to represent constituents who are taking their anger and frustration with police brutality to the streets .
Since Floyd ’ s death , three policing bills Bailey sponsored — repealing 50-a , establishing a special unit in the attorney general ’ s office to investigate police misconduct and requiring officers to pay attention to the medical and mental health needs of people in their custody @ @ @ @ @ @ @ People have spoken , ” Bailey said .
“ Folks have been complaining about police brutality for so many years , and it just goes away .
It couldn ’ t go away this time .
Not only are we going to take the street , but we are also going to push for changes in the legislature.
” Patrick Lynch , president of the Police Benevolent Association of New York City , was not pleased with the action in the statehouse .
“ Governor Cuomo and our legislative leaders have no business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a statement when the reforms were signed into law .
“ New York state had been failing our communities for decades … Police officers spend our days addressing issues caused by these failures .
Now , we won ’ t even be able to do that.
” Currently , more than half of the state legislatures are out of session , many because of the impact of COVID-19 .
Amber Widgery , who leads the criminal justice program at the NCSL , said she expects more police reform bills from state legislatures when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kate Brown of Oregon , have already announced they will call legislatures back into session to address police accountability .
Widgery said the speed at which some of the reform bills are making their way through the chambers is particularly noteworthy .
Iowa ’ s police reform bill passed through the state ’ s Republican-controlled legislature with unanimous support in just one day , and the governor signed it the next .
It gives the state attorney general power to prosecute police officers , bans chokeholds and restricts police departments from hiring officers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rep. Ras Smith , one of the main architects of the new reforms , said it took less than two weeks to craft the legislation .
“ We don ’ t get to pick the moment in which we have allies who can unite and that we can get something done , ” Smith said .
“ This was one of those opportunities in which we could really gain ground by finding the commonality and really addressing something that went beyond politics .
But also that also means that we have to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feel that way tomorrow .
It ’ s still yet to be seen — this is the first step , the verdict is still out.
” Some states have not passed legislation , and there are a variety of roadblocks facing legislators .
On June 3 , Kansas state Rep. Rui Xu proposed a resolution condemning police brutality , racism and use of excessive and militarized force , but it died quickly the next day , when the legislature adjourned its special session .
Xu said he never truly expected to get his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Republican-led House and Senate .
“ I just wanted to show , at the very least , the people of color in Kansas there are legislative people in power who wanted to do something about this .
A resolution doesn ’ t have the force of law , but we do have ideas , ” Xu said .
Daniel Feldman , a professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice , said he is cautiously optimistic that the rush of legislation suggests change will continue to come , even after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unjustified killing of Black citizens has little by little changed people ’ s wrong assumptions about interactions with the police , ” Feldman said .
“ We may see the reactions to George Floyd ’ s death as instant , but the psychological shift has happened over a period of time .
It may be a permanent shift in opinion.
” Sign up for The Marshall Project ’ s newsletter , or follow them on Facebook or Twitter .

This article was published in partnership with The Marshall Project, a nonprofit news organization covering the U.S. criminal justice system.
Eighteen days after George Floyd was killed by a Minneapolis police officer, the Minnesota state Legislature introduced 48 bills in a special session on law enforcement. On the same day, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds signed a new bill restricting police chokeholds, and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo signed a series of police reforms into law, including repealing an obscure law, section 50-a, that shielded police disciplinary records from public scrutiny.
More lawmakers across the country are proposing changes to how police operate. In the three weeks after Floyd’s death and the ensuing nationwide protests against police brutality, 16 state legislatures have discussed the issues roiling the country. As of Tuesday, legislatures had introduced, amended or passed 159 bills and resolutions related to policing, including bills that were introduced in both chambers, according to a database compiled by the National Conference of State Legislatures, a nonpartisan association of state lawmakers.
Of course, in politics, talking about doing something is one thing. Doing it is another. By June 16, nine of these bills have become law, and seven more are waiting for governors’ signatures. In all, three state legislatures — Colorado, Iowa and New York — have passed policing bills.
Looking at action in the statehouse has its limits, because police reform usually happens on the local level, as cities and towns decide how to fund and regulate their own police forces. The sheer number of new bills can also be misleading: some state legislatures will eventually bundle multiple bills related to the same topic and pass them as one omnibus bill.
Still, state legislatures can hold tremendous power on issues like setting pensions for police officers, and the wave of new state-level bills represents how swiftly the conversation around policing has shifted since the death of Floyd.
An analysis of the conference’s database shows that the majority of the reform bills introduced since Floyd’s death focus on police oversight and regulating use of force, like banning chokeholds, building public databases of traffic stops and establishing an independent agency to investigate misconduct.
Jamaal Bailey, a New York state senator who represents parts of the Bronx and Westchester County, said it’s been a humbling experience to represent constituents who are taking their anger and frustration with police brutality to the streets. Since Floyd’s death, three policing bills Bailey sponsored — repealing 50-a, establishing a special unit in the attorney general’s office to investigate police misconduct and requiring officers to pay attention to the medical and mental health needs of people in their custody — were signed into law.
“People have spoken,” Bailey said. “Folks have been complaining about police brutality for so many years, and it just goes away. It couldn’t go away this time. Not only are we going to take the street, but we are also going to push for changes in the legislature.”
Patrick Lynch, president of the Police Benevolent Association of New York City, was not pleased with the action in the statehouse.
“Governor Cuomo and our legislative leaders have no business celebrating today,” Lynch said in a statement when the reforms were signed into law. “New York state had been failing our communities for decades … Police officers spend our days addressing issues caused by these failures. Now, we won’t even be able to do that.”
Currently, more than half of the state legislatures are out of session, many because of the impact of COVID-19. Amber Widgery, who leads the criminal justice program at the NCSL, said she expects more police reform bills from state legislatures when they reconvene. Some governors, like Kate Brown of Oregon, have already announced they will call legislatures back into session to address police accountability.
Widgery said the speed at which some of the reform bills are making their way through the chambers is particularly noteworthy. Iowa’s police reform bill passed through the state’s Republican-controlled legislature with unanimous support in just one day, and the governor signed it the next. It gives the state attorney general power to prosecute police officers, bans chokeholds and restricts police departments from hiring officers with records of misconduct.
Iowa state Rep. Ras Smith, one of the main architects of the new reforms, said it took less than two weeks to craft the legislation.
“We don’t get to pick the moment in which we have allies who can unite and that we can get something done,” Smith said. “This was one of those opportunities in which we could really gain ground by finding the commonality and really addressing something that went beyond politics. But also that also means that we have to be mindful of knowing that they may not feel that way tomorrow. It’s still yet to be seen — this is the first step, the verdict is still out.”
Some states have not passed legislation, and there are a variety of roadblocks facing legislators. On June 3, Kansas state Rep. Rui Xu proposed a resolution condemning police brutality, racism and use of excessive and militarized force, but it died quickly the next day, when the legislature adjourned its special session.
Xu said he never truly expected to get his criminal justice bill passed in the state’s Republican-led House and Senate.
“I just wanted to show, at the very least, the people of color in Kansas there are legislative people in power who wanted to do something about this. A resolution doesn’t have the force of law, but we do have ideas,” Xu said.
Daniel Feldman, a professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said he is cautiously optimistic that the rush of legislation suggests change will continue to come, even after the daily protests ebb.
“The unjustified killing of Black citizens has little by little changed people’s wrong assumptions about interactions with the police,” Feldman said. “We may see the reactions to George Floyd’s death as instant, but the psychological shift has happened over a period of time. It may be a permanent shift in opinion.”
Sign up for The Marshall Project’s newsletter, or follow them on Facebook or Twitter.
How cable news is talking about the protests — and why it matters | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-18--The Supreme Court Put DACA’s Fate In The Hands Of Voters

DACA is safe — for now .
On Thursday morning , the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration can ’ t immediately end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program , also known as DACA .
Created by President Barack Obama , DACA provides a shield against deportation for more than 700,000 undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children and enrolled in the program .
But although the ruling is a significant win for DACA ’ s supporters , it ’ s only temporary .
The majority opinion , written by Chief Justice John Roberts , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has the power to rescind DACA later , if a solid justification is provided — the problem was that the way his administration did it was “ arbitrary and capricious , ” and therefore violated administrative law .
In effect , this means that the ultimate fate of the DACA recipients — sometimes called “ Dreamers ” after a failed bill that shared many of the same goals as DACA — will be decided in the presidential election this November … unless , of course , Congress chooses to step in .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be able to come up with a satisfactory justification before Americans head to the polls — and even if it does , that decision will likely be immediately challenged in the courts .
But if Trump wins reelection , the administration will have ample time to try again .
For now , though , the justices have said that the Trump administration ’ s rationale wasn ’ t good enough .
In September 2017 , Trump announced that he would rescind DACA , but gave only a single reason — that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a second justification for ending the program later , but the court said that reasoning needed to come when the program was actually terminated .
“ Roberts felt that the government didn ’ t pay sufficient attention to what DACA means to its recipients , ” said Peter Margulies , a professor at Roger Williams University School of Law .
“ These folks are interwoven into our society and really don ’ t have any other place they can call home .
That ’ s what Roberts is saying to the Trump administration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this program and you can ’ t ignore that with a stroke of a pen.
” If this sounds similar to Roberts ’ s ruling last year on whether the Trump administration could add a citizenship question to the 2020 census , you ’ re on to something .
In that case , Roberts also joined the liberals in rejecting the administration ’ s stated reason for adding the question to the census — but left open the possibility that the administration could offer a legitimate justification later .
Ultimately , time constraints @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bite at the apple because the vast bureaucratic machinery that makes the census possible was already getting into gear .
This time , too , Roberts was clear that the court was not weighing in on whether DACA was a good or bad policy .
“ We address only whether the agency complied with the procedural requirement that it provide a reasoned explanation for its action , ” he wrote in the opinion .
The essential question , then , is whether the Trump administration followed the rules .
“ It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will love , ” said Stephen Yale-Loehr , a professor at Cornell Law School , referring to a law that dictates how federal policies can be made and unmade .
“ The court said , under this domestic law , you ’ re supposed to do things a certain way , have certain adequate justifications for your actions , and this administration did not follow those procedural requirements.
” Both Margulies and Yale-Loehr pointed out , though , how different today ’ s ruling was from another Roberts-authored opinion , where the court @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost exactly two years ago .
“ In that case , Roberts is much more inclined to defer to the administration , ” Margulies said .
It ’ s possible that the framing of the issue was the key , he added — the travel ban fell more clearly under the sphere of foreign policy , where the executive branch has a lot of latitude , whereas Roberts ’ s ruling mainly treated the DACA rescission as a domestic issue .
“ It does make you wonder if Roberts ’ s attitude is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s now less willing to accept the stated justifications that this administration provides , ” Margulies said .
And Roberts ’ s fellow conservatives did accuse the majority of playing politics by sidestepping what they saw as the correct legal result in favor of a ruling that would be more popular .
In his dissent , Justice Clarence Thomas described the majority opinion as “ mystifying ” and argued that the court should have ruled that DACA was illegal instead of extending the legal fight over the program .
“ In doing so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for future political battles to be fought in this Court rather than where they rightfully belong — the political branches , ” Thomas wrote .
Trump seemed to agree .
In response to the ruling , he tweeted : “ These horrible & politically charged decisions coming out of the Supreme Court are shotgun blasts into the face of people that are proud to call themselves Republicans or Conservatives .
We need more Justices or we will lose our 2nd .
Amendment & everything else .
Vote Trump 2020 !
” The decision @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hands of the voters and Congress , at least for now .
“ This is a major victory for the Dreamers , but it ’ s arguably only a temporary victory , ” Yale-Loehr said .
“ A lot will depend on the outcome of the presidential election — or if Congress decides to enact a legislative solution to resolve this once and for all .
”

DACA is safe — for now.
On Thursday morning, the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration can’t immediately end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, also known as DACA. Created by President Barack Obama, DACA provides a shield against deportation for more than 700,000 undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children and enrolled in the program. But although the ruling is a significant win for DACA’s supporters, it’s only temporary. The majority opinion, written by Chief Justice John Roberts, made it clear that President Trump still has the power to rescind DACA later, if a solid justification is provided — the problem was that the way his administration did it was “arbitrary and capricious,” and therefore violated administrative law.
In effect, this means that the ultimate fate of the DACA recipients — sometimes called “Dreamers” after a failed bill that shared many of the same goals as DACA — will be decided in the presidential election this November … unless, of course, Congress chooses to step in. It’s unlikely that the Trump administration will be able to come up with a satisfactory justification before Americans head to the polls — and even if it does, that decision will likely be immediately challenged in the courts. But if Trump wins reelection, the administration will have ample time to try again.
For now, though, the justices have said that the Trump administration’s rationale wasn’t good enough. In September 2017, Trump announced that he would rescind DACA, but gave only a single reason — that the program was unconstitutional. The administration offered a second justification for ending the program later, but the court said that reasoning needed to come when the program was actually terminated. “Roberts felt that the government didn’t pay sufficient attention to what DACA means to its recipients,” said Peter Margulies, a professor at Roger Williams University School of Law. “These folks are interwoven into our society and really don’t have any other place they can call home. That’s what Roberts is saying to the Trump administration — people have shaped their lives around this program and you can’t ignore that with a stroke of a pen.”
If this sounds similar to Roberts’s ruling last year on whether the Trump administration could add a citizenship question to the 2020 census, you’re on to something. In that case, Roberts also joined the liberals in rejecting the administration’s stated reason for adding the question to the census — but left open the possibility that the administration could offer a legitimate justification later. Ultimately, time constraints kept the Trump administration from taking another bite at the apple because the vast bureaucratic machinery that makes the census possible was already getting into gear.
This time, too, Roberts was clear that the court was not weighing in on whether DACA was a good or bad policy. “We address only whether the agency complied with the procedural requirement that it provide a reasoned explanation for its action,” he wrote in the opinion. The essential question, then, is whether the Trump administration followed the rules. “It’s a decision that Administrative Procedure Act nerds will love,” said Stephen Yale-Loehr, a professor at Cornell Law School, referring to a law that dictates how federal policies can be made and unmade. “The court said, under this domestic law, you’re supposed to do things a certain way, have certain adequate justifications for your actions, and this administration did not follow those procedural requirements.”
Both Margulies and Yale-Loehr pointed out, though, how different today’s ruling was from another Roberts-authored opinion, where the court upheld Trump’s controversial travel ban almost exactly two years ago. “In that case, Roberts is much more inclined to defer to the administration,” Margulies said. It’s possible that the framing of the issue was the key, he added — the travel ban fell more clearly under the sphere of foreign policy, where the executive branch has a lot of latitude, whereas Roberts’s ruling mainly treated the DACA rescission as a domestic issue. “It does make you wonder if Roberts’s attitude is evolving, though, and he’s now less willing to accept the stated justifications that this administration provides,” Margulies said.
And Roberts’s fellow conservatives did accuse the majority of playing politics by sidestepping what they saw as the correct legal result in favor of a ruling that would be more popular. In his dissent, Justice Clarence Thomas described the majority opinion as “mystifying” and argued that the court should have ruled that DACA was illegal instead of extending the legal fight over the program. “In doing so, it has given the green light for future political battles to be fought in this Court rather than where they rightfully belong — the political branches,” Thomas wrote.
Trump seemed to agree. In response to the ruling, he tweeted: “These horrible & politically charged decisions coming out of the Supreme Court are shotgun blasts into the face of people that are proud to call themselves Republicans or Conservatives. We need more Justices or we will lose our 2nd. Amendment & everything else. Vote Trump 2020!”
The decision leaves the fate of DACA in the hands of the voters and Congress, at least for now. “This is a major victory for the Dreamers, but it’s arguably only a temporary victory,” Yale-Loehr said. “A lot will depend on the outcome of the presidential election — or if Congress decides to enact a legislative solution to resolve this once and for all.”


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-19--Americans Like The Ideas Behind Defunding The Police More Than The Slogan Itself

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
“ Defund the police.
” In the last several weeks , this slogan has entered the mainstream amid nationwide protests against police violence .
However , there ’ s some disagreement about what exactly the slogan means .
Some activists actually do want to disband police departments entirely , while others argue that police budgets should be radically decreased , but not brought down to zero .
But even among those who want to abolish the police , some say they want to do so over time .
But while the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it doesn ’ t poll well .
Four polls conducted in the past two weeks found that Americans opposed the “ defund the police ” movement or “ defunding police departments ” 58 percent to 31 percent , on average .
The slogan is unpopular with most demographic groups , too , with two notable exceptions : Black Americans and Democrats .
In the two polls where results were broken down by race , Black respondents said they supported defunding the police by an average of 45 percent to 28 percent , while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 61 percent to 23 percent .
This is in line with other polls that have consistently shown that white people mostly see police in a favorable light , while Black people are likelier to have experienced mistreatment at officers ’ hands and take the problem of police violence seriously .
So what we ’ re seeing here may be another reflection of Black and white Americans ’ different experiences with police .
Similarly , in the three polls with breakdowns by party , Democrats on average supported the “ defund the police @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Republicans on average opposed it 84 percent to 11 percent .
Granted , only about a quarter of Democrats “ strongly ” supported it , per Morning Consult/Politico and Reuters/Ipsos , but three-quarters of Republicans “ strongly ” opposed it .
However , “ defund the police ” is also a simplistic slogan , and the poll results above do not capture public opinion on the movement ’ s more concrete policy goals .
Specifically , defunding the police is only half of its goal ; activists also want to reallocate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parts of the social safety net .
Indeed , in those very same polls , some of these policy ideas enjoy far more backing among the American public than the slogan does — though the level of support does vary pretty widely depending on the details of the proposal .
For instance , when Reuters/Ipsos queried people about “ proposals to move some money currently going to police budgets into better officer training , local programs for homelessness , mental health assistance , and domestic violence , ” a whopping 76 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supported them , with only 22 percent opposed .
Democrats and independents supported these proposals in huge numbers while Republicans were split , 51 percent in favor to 47 percent opposed .
Meanwhile , Morning Consult/Politico asked respondents whether they supported “ redirecting funding for the police department in [ their ] local community to support community development programs , ” and just 43 percent of register voters said they supported it , while 42 percent opposed it .
Still , this was a significant increase in support from the pollster ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to ‘ defund the police ’ ” ( which , to reiterate , was 28 percent support vs. 58 percent opposition ) .
Overall , questions that seemed to emphasize how police departments would be affected found less support .
Reuters/Ipsos respondents who were familiar with “ proposals to completely dismantle police departments and give more financial support to address homelessness , mental health , and domestic violence ” said they opposed those proposals , 58 percent to 39 percent .
That was virtually identical to the way respondents broke down in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ defund the police ’ movement.
” And finally , per ABC News/Ipsos , 39 percent supported and 60 percent opposed “ reducing the budget of the police department in your community , even if that means fewer police officers , if the money is shifted to programs related to mental health , housing , and education.
” That made the specific proposal slightly more popular than “ the movement to ‘ defund the police ’ ” ( 34 percent support vs. 64 percent opposition ) , but the difference was well within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The idea of redirecting funding from police departments is a new one to most Americans , so the contours of the debate are still being defined — and so is public opinion .
While the “ defund the police ” slogan itself is quite unpopular , there does appear to be some support for rethinking police departments ’ role in local budgets and the community , so public opinion on this issue could very well lead to policy change .
• A new poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation highlighted many of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their race .
A full 71 percent of non-Hispanic Black respondents said they had been subjected to discrimination or violence because of their race , including 48 percent who said they had feared for their lives .
For non-Hispanic white respondents , those numbers were 23 percent and 16 percent , respectively .
• After National Football League commissioner Roger Goodell admitted the league was wrong to bar players from kneeling during the national anthem to protest racial injustice , Morning Consult found that fewer Americans believed this was an unacceptable form @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 48 percent thought kneeling was unacceptable ; this month , 39 percent thought so .
However , that doesn ’ t mean more Americans think this action is acceptable : That figure now sits at 38 percent , virtually unchanged from 2017 .
Instead , the share who say they don ’ t know whether kneeling during the anthem is acceptable has risen from 13 percent to 23 percent .
• According to the latest Gallup tracker of national pride , 63 percent of American adults said they were “ extremely ” or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American .
However , that number is the lowest Gallup has found since it began asking this question in 2001 .
National pride has been on a steady downward slope since 2013 , when 85 percent said they were extremely or very proud to be an American .
• Researchers at Harvard , Stanford and the University of Texas at Austin are out with a cool YouGov poll surveying Americans on the cases before the Supreme Court this term .
For example , respondents said 83 percent to 17 percent that they believed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be fired because of their sexual orientation , the subject of Bostock v. Clayton County , Georgia .
Respondents also favored keeping the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program , the subject of Department of Homeland Security v. Regents of the University of California , 61 percent to 39 percent .
And this week , the court sided with the American public on both cases .
• One of 2020 ’ s highest-quality state polls to date suggests that President Trump and Senate Republicans are in serious electoral danger .
The latest Des @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gave Trump 44 percent and former Vice President Joe Biden 43 percent in Iowa ; it also showed Democrat Theresa Greenfield at 46 percent and Republican Sen. Joni Ernst at 43 percent .
Given that Iowa has become a Republican-leaning state in recent years , Trump and Biden being virtually tied there shows just how robust Biden ’ s national lead is .
And if Democrats do indeed lead in the Senate race there , they are probably well on their way to the three or four pick-ups they need to take control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Monmouth University , 63 percent of Americans were planning to take a summer vacation before the coronavirus pandemic hit .
Now , only 14 percent say they either definitely or probably will stick with those plans , and only 26 percent say they either definitely or probably will take a summer vacation at all .
Of those who changed or might change their travel plans , 96 percent cited the pandemic as the main reason for their decision .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 41.2 percent of Americans approve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president , while 55.2 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -14.0 points ) .
At this time last week , 40.9 percent approved and 54.8 percent disapproved ( a net approval rating of -13.9 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 43.8 percent and a disapproval rating of 51.9 percent , for a net approval rating of -8.1 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 7.9 percentage points ( 48.6 percent to 40.7 percent ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans by 7.9 points ( 48.5 percent to 40.6 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters also preferred Democrats by 7.9 points ( 48.4 percent to 40.5 percent ) .
Check out all the polls we ’ ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections .

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
“Defund the police.” In the last several weeks, this slogan has entered the mainstream amid nationwide protests against police violence.
However, there’s some disagreement about what exactly the slogan means. Some activists actually do want to disband police departments entirely, while others argue that police budgets should be radically decreased, but not brought down to zero. But even among those who want to abolish the police, some say they want to do so over time.
But while the slogan is suddenly everywhere, so far it doesn’t poll well. Four polls conducted in the past two weeks found that Americans opposed the “defund the police” movement or “defunding police departments” 58 percent to 31 percent, on average.
Most Americans balk at defunding the police Recent polls asking people whether they support or oppose the “defund the police” movement or “defunding police departments” Dates Pollster Support Oppose June 14-16 The Economist/YouGov 24% 53% June 12-14 Morning Consult/Politico 28 58 June 10-11 ABC News/Ipsos 34 64 June 9-10 Reuters/Ipsos* 39 57 Average 31 58 *Question only asked of those who said they were very or somewhat familiar with the “defund the police” movement. All polls are of adults, except the Morning Consult/Politico poll, which is of registered voters. Source: Polls
The slogan is unpopular with most demographic groups, too, with two notable exceptions: Black Americans and Democrats. In the two polls where results were broken down by race, Black respondents said they supported defunding the police by an average of 45 percent to 28 percent, while white respondents opposed it by an average of 61 percent to 23 percent. This is in line with other polls that have consistently shown that white people mostly see police in a favorable light, while Black people are likelier to have experienced mistreatment at officers’ hands and take the problem of police violence seriously. So what we’re seeing here may be another reflection of Black and white Americans’ different experiences with police.
Similarly, in the three polls with breakdowns by party, Democrats on average supported the “defund the police” movement 50 percent to 34 percent, and Republicans on average opposed it 84 percent to 11 percent. Granted, only about a quarter of Democrats “strongly” supported it, per Morning Consult/Politico and Reuters/Ipsos, but three-quarters of Republicans “strongly” opposed it.
However, “defund the police” is also a simplistic slogan, and the poll results above do not capture public opinion on the movement’s more concrete policy goals. Specifically, defunding the police is only half of its goal; activists also want to reallocate the money spent on policing to other parts of the social safety net. Indeed, in those very same polls, some of these policy ideas enjoy far more backing among the American public than the slogan does — though the level of support does vary pretty widely depending on the details of the proposal.
For instance, when Reuters/Ipsos queried people about “proposals to move some money currently going to police budgets into better officer training, local programs for homelessness, mental health assistance, and domestic violence,” a whopping 76 percent of people who were familiar with those proposals supported them, with only 22 percent opposed. Democrats and independents supported these proposals in huge numbers while Republicans were split, 51 percent in favor to 47 percent opposed.
Meanwhile, Morning Consult/Politico asked respondents whether they supported “redirecting funding for the police department in [their] local community to support community development programs,” and just 43 percent of register voters said they supported it, while 42 percent opposed it. Still, this was a significant increase in support from the pollster’s question about support for the “movement to ‘defund the police’” (which, to reiterate, was 28 percent support vs. 58 percent opposition).
Overall, questions that seemed to emphasize how police departments would be affected found less support. Reuters/Ipsos respondents who were familiar with “proposals to completely dismantle police departments and give more financial support to address homelessness, mental health, and domestic violence” said they opposed those proposals, 58 percent to 39 percent. That was virtually identical to the way respondents broke down in the pollster’s question about the “‘defund the police’ movement.” And finally, per ABC News/Ipsos, 39 percent supported and 60 percent opposed “reducing the budget of the police department in your community, even if that means fewer police officers, if the money is shifted to programs related to mental health, housing, and education.” That made the specific proposal slightly more popular than “the movement to ‘defund the police’” (34 percent support vs. 64 percent opposition), but the difference was well within the pollster’s margin of error.
The idea of redirecting funding from police departments is a new one to most Americans, so the contours of the debate are still being defined — and so is public opinion. While the “defund the police” slogan itself is quite unpopular, there does appear to be some support for rethinking police departments’ role in local budgets and the community, so public opinion on this issue could very well lead to policy change.
Other polling bites
A new poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation highlighted many of the ways Americans are treated differently because of their race. A full 71 percent of non-Hispanic Black respondents said they had been subjected to discrimination or violence because of their race, including 48 percent who said they had feared for their lives. For non-Hispanic white respondents, those numbers were 23 percent and 16 percent, respectively.
After National Football League commissioner Roger Goodell admitted the league was wrong to bar players from kneeling during the national anthem to protest racial injustice, Morning Consult found that fewer Americans believed this was an unacceptable form of protest. In September 2017, 48 percent thought kneeling was unacceptable; this month, 39 percent thought so. However, that doesn’t mean more Americans think this action is acceptable: That figure now sits at 38 percent, virtually unchanged from 2017. Instead, the share who say they don’t know whether kneeling during the anthem is acceptable has risen from 13 percent to 23 percent.
According to the latest Gallup tracker of national pride, 63 percent of American adults said they were “extremely” or “very” proud to be an American. However, that number is the lowest Gallup has found since it began asking this question in 2001. National pride has been on a steady downward slope since 2013, when 85 percent said they were extremely or very proud to be an American.
Researchers at Harvard, Stanford and the University of Texas at Austin are out with a cool YouGov poll surveying Americans on the cases before the Supreme Court this term. For example, respondents said 83 percent to 17 percent that they believed it should be illegal for employees to be fired because of their sexual orientation, the subject of Bostock v. Clayton County, Georgia. Respondents also favored keeping the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, the subject of Department of Homeland Security v. Regents of the University of California, 61 percent to 39 percent. And this week, the court sided with the American public on both cases.
One of 2020’s highest-quality state polls to date suggests that President Trump and Senate Republicans are in serious electoral danger. The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll by Selzer and Co. gave Trump 44 percent and former Vice President Joe Biden 43 percent in Iowa; it also showed Democrat Theresa Greenfield at 46 percent and Republican Sen. Joni Ernst at 43 percent. Given that Iowa has become a Republican-leaning state in recent years, Trump and Biden being virtually tied there shows just how robust Biden’s national lead is. And if Democrats do indeed lead in the Senate race there, they are probably well on their way to the three or four pick-ups they need to take control of that chamber.
According to Monmouth University, 63 percent of Americans were planning to take a summer vacation before the coronavirus pandemic hit. Now, only 14 percent say they either definitely or probably will stick with those plans, and only 26 percent say they either definitely or probably will take a summer vacation at all. Of those who changed or might change their travel plans, 96 percent cited the pandemic as the main reason for their decision.
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 41.2 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 55.2 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -14.0 points). At this time last week, 40.9 percent approved and 54.8 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -13.9 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 43.8 percent and a disapproval rating of 51.9 percent, for a net approval rating of -8.1 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.9 percentage points (48.6 percent to 40.7 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7.9 points (48.5 percent to 40.6 percent). At this time last month, voters also preferred Democrats by 7.9 points (48.4 percent to 40.5 percent).
Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.
Juneteenth recognized by more states, companies as a holiday


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-19--The Economy Is A Mess. So Why Isn’t The Stock Market?

We ’ ve said it before : The stock market is not the economy .
Usually , this simply means that fluctuations in the markets may have little to no real bearing on the underlying realities we think of as making up the economy .
Or that there are many important structural factors that make the markets ’ outlook different from how ordinary citizens view the country ’ s overall economic health .
But now , those usual bromides risk wildly understating the disconnect .
In the time of COVID-19 , the stock market couldn ’ t be more divorced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ situation .
Although the S & P 500 tumbled sharply in March , as the coronavirus shut down large swaths of the economy , it had made back almost all of its losses by the first week of June — before dipping again and then quickly rebounding yet again .
Even beyond the markets , there has been some data to suggest that the worst fears about the economy in late March and April were too pessimistic .
( Take May ’ s jobs report , for instance , which showed a surprising @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a classification problem with laid-off workers . )
But the overall state of unemployment is still quite bad by historical standards , which mirrors numerous important economic indicators that are almost uniformly down — to a significant degree — from last summer : Obviously , not every core indicator has dropped off a cliff in the face of this recession .
Inflation , as measured by the sticky-price consumer price index ( excluding ever-volatile food and energy expenditures ) , has dipped some since February — from 2.8 percent year-over-year to 2.1 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ range .
New building permits ( a sign of construction investment and activity ) have rebounded from an initial dip and are almost back at last year ’ s level .
And measures of credit risk , such as the TED spread , have stabilized , indicating a low implied risk of commercial-bank defaults .
But employment rates , oil prices , consumer confidence and many other measures paint a clear recessionary picture .
Even corporate earnings — which in theory help dictate the prices of shares on the market — suffered their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is what has driven forward-looking price-earnings ratio forecasts for the S & P skyward . )
And yet stock indices continue to rebound much faster than the rest of the economy .
Why ?
As is usually the case in economics , it ’ s complicated — and everyone has a pet theory .
A few include the idea that investors are betting on a quick “ V-shaped ” recovery ( rather than the longer , slower “ swoosh ” shape many economists have predicted ) and banking on corporate profits eventually rebounding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( And why not ?
The Federal Reserve ’ s actions have made it clear this is a priority . )
Some prominent tech companies at the top of the market ( such as Microsoft , Apple and Alphabet ) actually have reason to think the pandemic could shift business in their favor , with so much emphasis placed on digital shopping , communication and entertainment .
And the rise of algorithm-based trading has insulated markets somewhat from the shocks that could be created by big news events , such as political developments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sweeping across the country , since dispassionate algorithms don ’ t get worried or scared by the news the way humans do .
But Tara Sinclair , an economics professor at George Washington University and a senior fellow at the Indeed Hiring Lab , told me she thinks the markets are also providing a better place for wealthy people to stash their money than alternatives like bonds or banks .
“ People , particularly the rich , have cut back their spending , so they need to park their funds somewhere like the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are rock bottom ) , ” she said in an email .
“ Inequality can mean that even with millions out of work , there might still be a glut of funds from the high-earning and/or high-wealth individuals.
” As Paul Krugman of The New York Times pointed out relatively early in the crisis , the yield on Treasury bonds is so low ( see the chart above ) that stocks are an attractive option — even in the midst of a recession caused by a once-in-a-generation pandemic .
“ Recent stock market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a savings glut rather than optimism on the future value of companies , ” Sinclair told me .
“ It may be more about the S & P 500 being better than anywhere else to put funds rather than about actual optimism.
” That doesn ’ t necessarily mean there ’ s no optimism driving investors ’ actions , though .
“ Maybe ( hopefully ? )
people are investing for the longer term and are viewing the current economic situation as substantially temporary , ” Sinclair wrote .
And it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the markets are not totally separate from the virus that continues to afflict every corner of the world .
When news of the coronavirus first hit , the VIX — a measure of market volatility perhaps better known as the “ fear index ” — spiked to 82.7 , its highest level ever .
( The previous high was 80.9 , which it hit in November 2008 , when the Great Recession sparked a massive selloff . )
News of a COVID-19 resurgence earlier this month caused the VIX to surge to 40.8 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of recessions , the VIX usually floats between 10 and 20 .
Despite the rising indices , uncertainty rules the stock market right now .
What that means down the line is anybody ’ s guess .
But for now , Wall Street has shown a shocking amount of resilience even as almost every other economic indicator has tanked .
If nothing else , let this be the final confirmation that , once and for all , the stock market is not the economy .

We’ve said it before: The stock market is not the economy.
Usually, this simply means that fluctuations in the markets may have little to no real bearing on the underlying realities we think of as making up the economy. Or that there are many important structural factors that make the markets’ outlook different from how ordinary citizens view the country’s overall economic health.
But now, those usual bromides risk wildly understating the disconnect. In the time of COVID-19, the stock market couldn’t be more divorced from the United States’ broader economic situation. Although the S&P 500 tumbled sharply in March, as the coronavirus shut down large swaths of the economy, it had made back almost all of its losses by the first week of June — before dipping again and then quickly rebounding yet again.
Even beyond the markets, there has been some data to suggest that the worst fears about the economy in late March and April were too pessimistic. (Take May’s jobs report, for instance, which showed a surprising decline in unemployment even after accounting for a classification problem with laid-off workers.) But the overall state of unemployment is still quite bad by historical standards, which mirrors numerous important economic indicators that are almost uniformly down — to a significant degree — from last summer:
Obviously, not every core indicator has dropped off a cliff in the face of this recession. Inflation, as measured by the sticky-price consumer price index (excluding ever-volatile food and energy expenditures), has dipped some since February — from 2.8 percent year-over-year to 2.1 percent — but remains in a relatively normal range. New building permits (a sign of construction investment and activity) have rebounded from an initial dip and are almost back at last year’s level. And measures of credit risk, such as the TED spread, have stabilized, indicating a low implied risk of commercial-bank defaults.
But employment rates, oil prices, consumer confidence and many other measures paint a clear recessionary picture. Even corporate earnings — which in theory help dictate the prices of shares on the market — suffered their worst quarter since 2008. (This is what has driven forward-looking price-earnings ratio forecasts for the S&P skyward.)
And yet stock indices continue to rebound much faster than the rest of the economy.
Why? As is usually the case in economics, it’s complicated — and everyone has a pet theory. A few include the idea that investors are betting on a quick “V-shaped” recovery (rather than the longer, slower “swoosh” shape many economists have predicted) and banking on corporate profits eventually rebounding in the medium and long run. (And why not? The Federal Reserve’s actions have made it clear this is a priority.)
Some prominent tech companies at the top of the market (such as Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet) actually have reason to think the pandemic could shift business in their favor, with so much emphasis placed on digital shopping, communication and entertainment. And the rise of algorithm-based trading has insulated markets somewhat from the shocks that could be created by big news events, such as political developments or the protests against racial injustice currently sweeping across the country, since dispassionate algorithms don’t get worried or scared by the news the way humans do.
But Tara Sinclair, an economics professor at George Washington University and a senior fellow at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told me she thinks the markets are also providing a better place for wealthy people to stash their money than alternatives like bonds or banks.
“People, particularly the rich, have cut back their spending, so they need to park their funds somewhere like the stock market (especially since interest rates are rock bottom),” she said in an email. “Inequality can mean that even with millions out of work, there might still be a glut of funds from the high-earning and/or high-wealth individuals.”
As Paul Krugman of The New York Times pointed out relatively early in the crisis, the yield on Treasury bonds is so low (see the chart above) that stocks are an attractive option — even in the midst of a recession caused by a once-in-a-generation pandemic.
“Recent stock market performance could be more about something like a savings glut rather than optimism on the future value of companies,” Sinclair told me. “It may be more about the S&P 500 being better than anywhere else to put funds rather than about actual optimism.”
That doesn’t necessarily mean there’s no optimism driving investors’ actions, though. “Maybe (hopefully?) people are investing for the longer term and are viewing the current economic situation as substantially temporary,” Sinclair wrote.
And it’s worth noting that, despite everything, the markets are not totally separate from the virus that continues to afflict every corner of the world.
When news of the coronavirus first hit, the VIX — a measure of market volatility perhaps better known as the “fear index” — spiked to 82.7, its highest level ever. (The previous high was 80.9, which it hit in November 2008, when the Great Recession sparked a massive selloff.) News of a COVID-19 resurgence earlier this month caused the VIX to surge to 40.8, another abnormally high number — outside of recessions, the VIX usually floats between 10 and 20. Despite the rising indices, uncertainty rules the stock market right now.
What that means down the line is anybody’s guess. But for now, Wall Street has shown a shocking amount of resilience even as almost every other economic indicator has tanked. If nothing else, let this be the final confirmation that, once and for all, the stock market is not the economy.
Subscribe to our coronavirus podcast, PODCAST-19


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-19--How Americans Feel About ‘Defunding The Police’

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
“ Defund the police.
” In the last several weeks , this slogan has entered the mainstream amid nationwide protests against police violence .
However , there ’ s some disagreement about what exactly the slogan means .
Some activists actually do want to disband police departments entirely , while others argue that police budgets should be radically decreased , but not brought down to zero .
But even among those who want to abolish the police , some say they want to do so over time .
But while the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it doesn ’ t poll well .
Four polls conducted in the past two weeks found that Americans opposed the “ defund the police ” movement or “ defunding police departments ” 58 percent to 31 percent , on average .
The slogan is unpopular with most demographic groups , too , with two notable exceptions : Black Americans and Democrats .
In the two polls where results were broken down by race , Black respondents said they supported defunding the police by an average of 45 percent to 28 percent , while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 61 percent to 23 percent .
This is in line with other polls that have consistently shown that white people mostly see police in a favorable light , while Black people are likelier to have experienced mistreatment at officers ’ hands and take the problem of police violence seriously .
So what we ’ re seeing here may be another reflection of Black and white Americans ’ different experiences with police .
Similarly , in the three polls with breakdowns by party , Democrats on average supported the “ defund the police @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Republicans on average opposed it 84 percent to 11 percent .
Granted , only about a quarter of Democrats “ strongly ” supported it , per Morning Consult/Politico and Reuters/Ipsos , but three-quarters of Republicans “ strongly ” opposed it .
However , “ defund the police ” is also a simplistic slogan , and the poll results above do not capture public opinion on the movement ’ s more concrete policy goals .
Specifically , defunding the police is only half of its goal ; activists also want to reallocate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parts of the social safety net .
Indeed , in those very same polls , some of these policy ideas enjoy far more backing among the American public than the slogan does — though the level of support does vary pretty widely depending on the details of the proposal .
For instance , when Reuters/Ipsos queried people about “ proposals to move some money currently going to police budgets into better officer training , local programs for homelessness , mental health assistance , and domestic violence , ” a whopping 76 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supported them , with only 22 percent opposed .
Democrats and independents supported these proposals in huge numbers while Republicans were split , 51 percent in favor to 47 percent opposed .
Meanwhile , Morning Consult/Politico asked respondents whether they supported “ redirecting funding for the police department in [ their ] local community to support community development programs , ” and just 43 percent of register voters said they supported it , while 42 percent opposed it .
Still , this was a significant increase in support from the pollster ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to ‘ defund the police ’ ” ( which , to reiterate , was 28 percent support vs. 58 percent opposition ) .
Overall , questions that seemed to emphasize how police departments would be affected found less support .
Reuters/Ipsos respondents who were familiar with “ proposals to completely dismantle police departments and give more financial support to address homelessness , mental health , and domestic violence ” said they opposed those proposals , 58 percent to 39 percent .
That was virtually identical to the way respondents broke down in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ defund the police ’ movement.
” And finally , per ABC News/Ipsos , 39 percent supported and 60 percent opposed “ reducing the budget of the police department in your community , even if that means fewer police officers , if the money is shifted to programs related to mental health , housing , and education.
” That made the specific proposal slightly more popular than “ the movement to ‘ defund the police ’ ” ( 34 percent support vs. 64 percent opposition ) , but the difference was well within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The idea of redirecting funding from police departments is a new one to most Americans , so the contours of the debate are still being defined — and so is public opinion .
While the “ defund the police ” slogan itself is quite unpopular , there does appear to be some support for rethinking police departments ’ role in local budgets and the community , so public opinion on this issue could very well lead to policy change .
• A new poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation highlighted many of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their race .
A full 71 percent of non-Hispanic Black respondents said they had been subjected to discrimination or violence because of their race , including 48 percent who said they had feared for their lives .
For non-Hispanic white respondents , those numbers were 23 percent and 16 percent , respectively .
• After National Football League commissioner Roger Goodell admitted the league was wrong to bar players from kneeling during the national anthem to protest racial injustice , Morning Consult found that fewer Americans believed this was an unacceptable form @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 48 percent thought kneeling was unacceptable ; this month , 39 percent thought so .
However , that doesn ’ t mean more Americans think this action is acceptable : That figure now sits at 38 percent , virtually unchanged from 2017 .
Instead , the share who say they don ’ t know whether kneeling during the anthem is acceptable has risen from 13 percent to 23 percent .
• According to the latest Gallup tracker of national pride , 63 percent of American adults said they were “ extremely ” or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American .
However , that number is the lowest Gallup has found since it began asking this question in 2001 .
National pride has been on a steady downward slope since 2013 , when 85 percent said they were extremely or very proud to be an American .
• Researchers at Harvard , Stanford and the University of Texas at Austin are out with a cool YouGov poll surveying Americans on the cases before the Supreme Court this term .
For example , respondents said 83 percent to 17 percent that they believed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be fired because of their sexual orientation , the subject of Bostock v. Clayton County , Georgia .
Respondents also favored keeping the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program , the subject of Department of Homeland Security v. Regents of the University of California , 61 percent to 39 percent .
And this week , the court sided with the American public on both cases .
• One of 2020 ’ s highest-quality state polls to date suggests that President Trump and Senate Republicans are in serious electoral danger .
The latest Des @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gave Trump 44 percent and former Vice President Joe Biden 43 percent in Iowa ; it also showed Democrat Theresa Greenfield at 46 percent and Republican Sen. Joni Ernst at 43 percent .
Given that Iowa has become a Republican-leaning state in recent years , Trump and Biden being virtually tied there shows just how robust Biden ’ s national lead is .
And if Democrats do indeed lead in the Senate race there , they are probably well on their way to the three or four pick-ups they need to take control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Monmouth University , 63 percent of Americans were planning to take a summer vacation before the coronavirus pandemic hit .
Now , only 14 percent say they either definitely or probably will stick with those plans , and only 26 percent say they either definitely or probably will take a summer vacation at all .
Of those who changed or might change their travel plans , 96 percent cited the pandemic as the main reason for their decision .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 41.2 percent of Americans approve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ president , while 55.2 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -14.0 points ) .
At this time last week , 40.9 percent approved and 54.8 percent disapproved ( a net approval rating of -13.9 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 43.8 percent and a disapproval rating of 51.9 percent , for a net approval rating of -8.1 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 7.9 percentage points ( 48.6 percent to 40.7 percent ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republicans by 7.9 points ( 48.5 percent to 40.6 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters also preferred Democrats by 7.9 points ( 48.4 percent to 40.5 percent ) .
Check out all the polls we ’ ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections .
Juneteenth recognized by more states , companies as a holiday


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-18--The States Taking On Police Reform After The Death Of George Floyd


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-10--Black Americans Are Very Connected To Being Black

From Beyoncé and Oprah Winfrey to the usually apolitical Michael Jordan , basically every famous black person in America has made some kind of public statement on the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis and the broader issue of how police treat black people .
Former President Barack Obama , who has generally refrained from making public comments on major news events since leaving the White House , has weighed in several times in very personal terms .
Polls suggest that black Americans are significantly more likely than white Americans and Hispanic Americans to say that they watched the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the police and the subsequent news coverage of his death , that his race was a factor in what happened to him , and that the police treat black people unfairly .
Of course , it ’ s not just black celebrities or just black former presidents who have spoken out — lots of Americans across races and parties have voiced concern about Floyd ’ s killing and what it says about the nation and its policies .
And part of the black reaction can probably be explained by partisanship .
The general @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Floyd ’ s race was a factor in his death and that the criminal justice system is biased against black people .
So it ’ s not surprising that black Americans are taking that view , as about 90 percent of them have voted for Democratic candidates in recent national elections .
Another factor , however , likely explains the collective black response to what has been happening in America over the past two weeks : The overwhelming majority of black Americans view their racial identity as a core part of their overall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kinship with other black people has likely been heightened by Floyd ’ s killing and the resulting debate over the status of black people in the United States .
About 52 percent of non-Hispanic black Americans said they viewed being black as “ extremely important ” to how they thought about themselves , according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted last year .
Another 22 percent said it was “ very important.
” These numbers were considerably lower for non-Hispanic Asian , non-Hispanic white and Hispanic Americans .
( More on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a bit — it ’ s complicated . )
Pew polling from 2016 and 2017 also showed that black people were significantly more likely than other demographic groups to say that their race was central to their identities .
Similarly , Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape polling from last December found that 75 percent of black Americans said their ethnicity and race was “ very important to their identity , ” significantly higher than the share of Hispanic Americans ( 58 percent ) , Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders ( 40 percent ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who said the same .
Another 15 percent of black Americans said that their race was “ somewhat important.
” This heightened sense of black identity does not appear to be a particularly recent phenomenon — or one that was inspired by the Black Lives Matter movement , which began to emerge in 2013 .
In 2012 , about 70 percent of black Americans said that being black was either extremely or very important to their identity , about the same proportion as in 2016 , according to surveys conducted as part of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both years , black Americans expressed much greater ties to their identity than white or Hispanic Americans did .
[ Related : Do You Know How Divided White And Black Americans Are On Racism ? ]
Part of the story here is about ethnic and racial groups other than black Americans — why aren ’ t an overwhelming majority of white , Hispanic or Asian Americans saying that their race or ethnicity is very important to their personal identities ?
This is not a simple question , and we won ’ t try @ @ @ @ @ @ @ State political science and African American studies professor Candis Watts Smith , who has written extensively about identity , said that “ Asian ” and “ Hispanic ” aren ’ t really the identities that some people who fall under these groups associate themselves with .
Hispanic Americans , she argued , might think of themselves as Cuban or Mexican but not embrace the broader Latino or Hispanic labels .
Similarly , some Americans of Chinese or Japanese ancestry might not describe themselves as Asian or feel much attachment to that identity .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ not to think of themselves racially , she said , because “ whiteness is viewed as normal by white people.
” Some scholars , most notably Duke University political scientist Ashley Jardina , emphasize that a significant number of white Americans do define themselves by their race , though still at lower rates than black Americans .
Her research suggests that people with high levels of white identity tended to vote for Trump in 2016 , and you can imagine more liberal-leaning white Americans would avoid talking about their pride as white people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Also , at least one poll , the 2016 Collaborative Multi-Racial Post-Election Survey , suggests that Asian Americans and Latino Americans express fairly similar views to black Americans in terms of having a positive view of their association with their racial or ethnic group .
That said , experts agree that black Americans express high levels of connection to their blackness .
Karyn Lacy , a University of Michigan sociology professor who wrote a book on black middle-class people living in the Washington , D.C. , suburbs , said that the people she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and grandchildren to be close to the broader black community .
“ There is a lot of joy in being black , ” Lacy said of the people she interviewed .
“ This is a really important point .
Most of the media coverage of black people is negative .
Scholars have spent a lot of time documenting the racial discrimination blacks experience .
We do need to know about how and why discrimination persists .
But there is very little attention to all the good things about being black.
” “ We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ black people wake up every morning thinking , ‘ Ugh , I ’ ve got to be black today , and it ’ s going to be awful.
’ None of the people I interviewed held that view , ” Lacy added .
“ They take a lot of pride in being black and worry that their kids might not embrace being black with the same enthusiasm.
” [ Related : How The Police See Issues Of Race And Policing ] The centrality of racial identity to black Americans is important to consider @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mentioned earlier that black attitudes about policing could be explained in part by partisanship , namely that the overwhelming majority of black people vote Democratic .
But that skips over something that ’ s extremely important to understand : Why are black people so much more Democratic-leaning than other ethnic and racial groups ?
Part of the answer sits in the power of black identity — scholars argue that , to some extent , black Americans vote as a collective to defend the broader group and sometimes shame and discourage other black people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collective .
“ Nobody likes Kanye right now , ” Smith joked , noting that many black people have become frustrated with Kanye West since he started associating himself with President Trump and making controversial comments on racial issues .
Black NBA players ’ doing everything they could to embrace Obama when he was president and then largely shunning Trump is no doubt related to those two presidents ’ divergent personas and political stands , as well as to partisanship .
But it ’ s tied to identity too — black NBA players @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being president and were angry after Trump slammed NFL players who knelt during the national anthem to protest racial inequality in America .
Winfrey , in her decades as a celebrity , has generally avoided partisan politics .
But she was very vocal in backing Obama during his 2008 presidential campaign and Stacey Abrams in her 2018 Georgia gubernatorial run .
Obama became America ’ s first black president ; Abrams would have been the nation ’ s first-ever black female governor .
“ Their identity stems from lived experiences with discrimination , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ promises , empty rhetoric , ” said Rosalee Clawson , a political science professor at Purdue University who studies the politics of race , class and gender .
“ I think we would be shocked if blacks didn ’ t share a sense of linked fate with their racial group.
” [ Related : 1968 Isn ’ t The Only Parallel For This Political Moment ] So it ’ s worth considering Floyd ’ s killing and the black community ’ s reaction to it in that context .
Police in the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kill black people at much higher rates than their 13 percent share of the U.S. population .
So perhaps men like Jordan and Obama see what happened to Floyd as something that could happen to them .
And it could .
But it ’ s also likely that these famous black men and women , like most black Americans , view being black as a big part of who they are , and so feel that they should speak out when an issue related to being black is all over the news .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ celebrities .
And they have [ black ] friends and neighbors .
And black celebrities face some of the same denigrating things [ based on their race ] as an average black person , ” said Smith .
Even rich black people think , “ It could have been me , it could have been my family member or my neighbor or a member of my community , ” said Smith .
Being black , she said , “ is always in their consciousness.
” FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast : Americans Dislike How Trump @ @ @ @

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

From Beyoncé and Oprah Winfrey to the usually apolitical Michael Jordan, basically every famous black person in America has made some kind of public statement on the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis and the broader issue of how police treat black people. Former President Barack Obama, who has generally refrained from making public comments on major news events since leaving the White House, has weighed in several times in very personal terms. Polls suggest that black Americans are significantly more likely than white Americans and Hispanic Americans to say that they watched the video of Floyd’s interaction with the police and the subsequent news coverage of his death, that his race was a factor in what happened to him, and that the police treat black people unfairly.
Of course, it’s not just black celebrities or just black former presidents who have spoken out — lots of Americans across races and parties have voiced concern about Floyd’s killing and what it says about the nation and its policies. And part of the black reaction can probably be explained by partisanship. The general position of the Democratic Party is that Floyd’s race was a factor in his death and that the criminal justice system is biased against black people. So it’s not surprising that black Americans are taking that view, as about 90 percent of them have voted for Democratic candidates in recent national elections.
Another factor, however, likely explains the collective black response to what has been happening in America over the past two weeks: The overwhelming majority of black Americans view their racial identity as a core part of their overall identity, and this black identity and kinship with other black people has likely been heightened by Floyd’s killing and the resulting debate over the status of black people in the United States.
About 52 percent of non-Hispanic black Americans said they viewed being black as “extremely important” to how they thought about themselves, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted last year. Another 22 percent said it was “very important.” These numbers were considerably lower for non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic white and Hispanic Americans. (More on the story with Asian and Hispanic Americans in a bit — it’s complicated.)
Pew polling from 2016 and 2017 also showed that black people were significantly more likely than other demographic groups to say that their race was central to their identities.
Similarly, Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape polling from last December found that 75 percent of black Americans said their ethnicity and race was “very important to their identity,” significantly higher than the share of Hispanic Americans (58 percent), Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (40 percent) and white Americans (30 percent) who said the same. Another 15 percent of black Americans said that their race was “somewhat important.”
This heightened sense of black identity does not appear to be a particularly recent phenomenon — or one that was inspired by the Black Lives Matter movement, which began to emerge in 2013. In 2012, about 70 percent of black Americans said that being black was either extremely or very important to their identity, about the same proportion as in 2016, according to surveys conducted as part of the American National Election Studies. In both years, black Americans expressed much greater ties to their identity than white or Hispanic Americans did.
[Related: Do You Know How Divided White And Black Americans Are On Racism?]
Part of the story here is about ethnic and racial groups other than black Americans — why aren’t an overwhelming majority of white, Hispanic or Asian Americans saying that their race or ethnicity is very important to their personal identities? This is not a simple question, and we won’t try to unpack it all here. Penn State political science and African American studies professor Candis Watts Smith, who has written extensively about identity, said that “Asian” and “Hispanic” aren’t really the identities that some people who fall under these groups associate themselves with. Hispanic Americans, she argued, might think of themselves as Cuban or Mexican but not embrace the broader Latino or Hispanic labels. Similarly, some Americans of Chinese or Japanese ancestry might not describe themselves as Asian or feel much attachment to that identity. White Americans, Smith said, tend not to think of themselves racially, she said, because “whiteness is viewed as normal by white people.”
Some scholars, most notably Duke University political scientist Ashley Jardina, emphasize that a significant number of white Americans do define themselves by their race, though still at lower rates than black Americans. Her research suggests that people with high levels of white identity tended to vote for Trump in 2016, and you can imagine more liberal-leaning white Americans would avoid talking about their pride as white people to avoid being cast as racist. Also, at least one poll, the 2016 Collaborative Multi-Racial Post-Election Survey, suggests that Asian Americans and Latino Americans express fairly similar views to black Americans in terms of having a positive view of their association with their racial or ethnic group.
That said, experts agree that black Americans express high levels of connection to their blackness. Karyn Lacy, a University of Michigan sociology professor who wrote a book on black middle-class people living in the Washington, D.C., suburbs, said that the people she interviewed for her research wanted their children and grandchildren to be close to the broader black community.
“There is a lot of joy in being black,” Lacy said of the people she interviewed. “This is a really important point. Most of the media coverage of black people is negative. Scholars have spent a lot of time documenting the racial discrimination blacks experience. We do need to know about how and why discrimination persists. But there is very little attention to all the good things about being black.”
“We’re left with the impression that black people wake up every morning thinking, ‘Ugh, I’ve got to be black today, and it’s going to be awful.’ None of the people I interviewed held that view,” Lacy added. “They take a lot of pride in being black and worry that their kids might not embrace being black with the same enthusiasm.”
[Related: How The Police See Issues Of Race And Policing]
The centrality of racial identity to black Americans is important to consider in a lot of contexts. We mentioned earlier that black attitudes about policing could be explained in part by partisanship, namely that the overwhelming majority of black people vote Democratic. But that skips over something that’s extremely important to understand: Why are black people so much more Democratic-leaning than other ethnic and racial groups? Part of the answer sits in the power of black identity — scholars argue that, to some extent, black Americans vote as a collective to defend the broader group and sometimes shame and discourage other black people from voting Republican and breaking with that collective.
“Nobody likes Kanye right now,” Smith joked, noting that many black people have become frustrated with Kanye West since he started associating himself with President Trump and making controversial comments on racial issues.
Black NBA players’ doing everything they could to embrace Obama when he was president and then largely shunning Trump is no doubt related to those two presidents’ divergent personas and political stands, as well as to partisanship. But it’s tied to identity too — black NBA players took pride in a fellow black man being president and were angry after Trump slammed NFL players who knelt during the national anthem to protest racial inequality in America. Winfrey, in her decades as a celebrity, has generally avoided partisan politics. But she was very vocal in backing Obama during his 2008 presidential campaign and Stacey Abrams in her 2018 Georgia gubernatorial run. Obama became America’s first black president; Abrams would have been the nation’s first-ever black female governor.
“Their identity stems from lived experiences with discrimination, bias, violence, inequality, broken promises, empty rhetoric,” said Rosalee Clawson, a political science professor at Purdue University who studies the politics of race, class and gender. “I think we would be shocked if blacks didn’t share a sense of linked fate with their racial group.”
[Related: 1968 Isn’t The Only Parallel For This Political Moment]
So it’s worth considering Floyd’s killing and the black community’s reaction to it in that context. Police in the U.S. pull over, arrest and shoot and kill black people at much higher rates than their 13 percent share of the U.S. population. So perhaps men like Jordan and Obama see what happened to Floyd as something that could happen to them.
And it could. But it’s also likely that these famous black men and women, like most black Americans, view being black as a big part of who they are, and so feel that they should speak out when an issue related to being black is all over the news.
“Most of them were not always celebrities. And they have [black] friends and neighbors. And black celebrities face some of the same denigrating things [based on their race] as an average black person,” said Smith.
Even rich black people think, “It could have been me, it could have been my family member or my neighbor or a member of my community,” said Smith.
Being black, she said, “is always in their consciousness.”
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