fivethirtyeight--2020-02-28--Who Are Asian Americans Supporting In California?

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
Understanding the political preferences of Asian Americans is tricky .
They make up a little less than 7 percent of the total U.S. population , which means pollsters often don ’ t sample enough of them to draw robust conclusions .
And the demographic category lumps together people from a huge range of backgrounds , with roots in a large and diverse group of countries , which means political opinions can vary dramatically within the group .
But one thing we do know is that this group has increasingly leaned toward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decades .
In 2017 , 65 percent of Asian Americans were Democrats or leaned Democratic , up from 53 percent in 1994 , according to annual totals of Pew Research Center study data .
And in California , which votes on Super Tuesday , Asian Americans make up 16 percent of the population , the largest percentage of any state except Hawaii .
The state ’ s Asian American voters account for 12 percent of likely voters who are registered Democrats , according to the Public Policy Institute of California , which released @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And that same research showed that 36 percent of Asian American likely voters in California are independents , compared to 43 percent who are Democrats , which means that if independents choose to cast a Democratic ballot , Asian Americans ’ share of the primary electorate could be even higher .
Heading into Super Tuesday , we have four recent California polls with crosstab information on who Asian American are leaning toward voting for , and Sen. Bernie Sanders seems to have an edge , earning the most support in three of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg also did well across the board .
Sanders ’ s focus on “ working class ” issues might be helping him with this group , because almost a quarter of Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders in California say they are struggling with poverty , according to a PRRI report published last November .
The survey found that most AAPIs reported coming from a middle , working or lower-class family and described their economic situations as largely unchanged from the one in which they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to raise the minimum wage to $ 15 an hour , strengthen unions , invest in affordable housing and provide health care for all could appeal to economically insecure Asian Americans .
But , of course , not all Asian voters are struggling economically .
The median household income for Asian Americans in California is about $ 97,000 , according to 2018 data from the Census Bureau , higher than the roughly $ 75,000 median for Californians of all races .
This could help explain some of the support we see for Bloomberg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with older , wealthier and more moderate Democratic voters whereas Sanders tends to do worse with voters whose household income is over $ 100,000 .
In addition , some older Asian Americans may be less willing to back Sanders because they may be wary of politicians who label themselves socialists .
Varun Nikore , president of the AAPI Victory Fund , a super PAC that aims to mobilize Asian American voters in support of Democratic candidates , told me that many older Asian Americans came to the U.S. after fleeing socialist or communist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and are therefore more apprehensive of socialism than younger , U.S.-born generations are .
So the fact that both Sanders and Bloomberg are doing reasonably well in the polls we have could reflect a divide within the California Asian American community , where older voters tend to prefer a more moderate candidate and younger voters tend to prefer a more progressive candidate like Sanders .
Of course , this is just four polls , so we should be cautious about reading too much into them .
And some of these candidates ’ support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same forces that are influencing Americans of all races this election cycle .
For instance , it ’ s hard to escape the Bloomberg ad machine , which has helped him build support in multiple Super Tuesday states , and Sanders , Warren and Bloomberg are all polling pretty highly in California , according to our polling average .
Former Vice President Joe Biden , on the other hand , should maybe be a bit concerned he doesn ’ t have more support among Asian Americans in California , given that he ranks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state , ahead of Bloomberg , but is trailing the former New York mayor among Asian American voters .
• In a Public Policy Polling survey of likely Texas Democratic primary voters released this week , 32 percent of Asian Americans supported Sanders , 29 percent supported Bloomberg , 20 percent supported former South Bend , Indiana , Mayor Pete Buttigieg and 9 percent supported Biden .
If Bloomberg wasn ’ t on the ballot , 53 percent would support Sanders , 17 percent would support Biden and 16 percent would support Buttigieg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Democratic candidate with a plurality of delegates should be the nominee .
In other words , Democrats are split on what constitutes a win .
In a YouGov poll conducted after the Nevada caucuses , 36 percent of Democrats said the candidate with the most delegates should be the nominee while 33 percent said they shouldn ’ t .
A separate Economist/YouGov poll found that in a open convention scenario , 36 percent want the candidate who won the most votes to receive the nomination , 20 percent of likely primary voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ delegates , 10 percent want the candidate who won the most states and 16 percent want the candidate who the polls say will do better in the general election .
• 4 in 10 Americans are worried about personally experiencing coronavirus , while 2 in 10 are not worried at all , per a Economist/YouGov poll released Feb. 26 .
The remaining 40 percent said they are not too worried .
Concern is pretty uniform across party , but diverges by race : While 51 percent of black Americans reported being worried , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same .
• Of the 77 percent of likely Democratic primary voters who think Russia is interfering in the 2020 election , 40 percent think that Sanders is being helped , according to the Economist/YouGov poll .
Seventy-two percent said the same about Trump , 12 percent for Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and 12 percent said Russia is not helping any specific candidates .
In that same poll , 81 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they don ’ t think Sanders wants Russia ’ s help , while just 59 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In comparison , 81 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they do think Trump wants Russia ’ s help , while 48 percent of all registered voters said the same .
• A majority of Americans ( 55 percent ) prefer creamy peanut butter to crunchy peanut butter ( 31 percent ) , per a recent YouGov poll .
Preference for creamy peanut butter falls to 49 percent in the West and rises to 59 percent in the Northeast .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 43.2 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is doing as president , while 52.3 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -9.1 points ) .
At this time last week , 44.0 percent approved and 51.5 percent disapproved ( for a net approval rating of -7.5 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 42.8 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.8 percent , for a net approval rating of -10 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 6.5 percentage points ( 47.8 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago , Democrats led Republicans by 6.4 points ( 47.7 percent to 41.3 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters preferred Democrats by 5.8 points ( 46.9 percent to 41.3 percent ) .
Check out all the polls we ’ ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections , including the latest Democratic primary polls .

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Polls of the week
Understanding the political preferences of Asian Americans is tricky. They make up a little less than 7 percent of the total U.S. population, which means pollsters often don’t sample enough of them to draw robust conclusions. And the demographic category lumps together people from a huge range of backgrounds, with roots in a large and diverse group of countries, which means political opinions can vary dramatically within the group.
But one thing we do know is that this group has increasingly leaned toward the Democratic Party over the past two decades. In 2017, 65 percent of Asian Americans were Democrats or leaned Democratic, up from 53 percent in 1994, according to annual totals of Pew Research Center study data.
And in California, which votes on Super Tuesday, Asian Americans make up 16 percent of the population, the largest percentage of any state except Hawaii. The state’s Asian American voters account for 12 percent of likely voters who are registered Democrats, according to the Public Policy Institute of California, which released a study of California voters last August. And that same research showed that 36 percent of Asian American likely voters in California are independents, compared to 43 percent who are Democrats, which means that if independents choose to cast a Democratic ballot, Asian Americans’ share of the primary electorate could be even higher.
Heading into Super Tuesday, we have four recent California polls with crosstab information on who Asian American are leaning toward voting for, and Sen. Bernie Sanders seems to have an edge, earning the most support in three of the four surveys we looked at. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg also did well across the board.
Sanders leads with Asian American voters in California Top Democratic candidates’ support among poll respondents who identified as Asian American, in four polls conducted since Feb. 6 Poll Sanders Warren Bloomberg Biden Buttigieg Point Blank Political 29% 9% 19% 6% 6% Change Research 40 17 9 14 0 SurveyUsa 19 9 28 11 16 Capitol Weekly 28 22 11 12 12 Point Blank Political poll was conducted Feb. 23-25, Change Research poll was conducted Feb. 20-23, SurveyUSA poll was conducted Feb. 13-16, and Capitol Weekly poll was conducted Feb. 6-9. Source: Polls
Sanders’s focus on “working class” issues might be helping him with this group, because almost a quarter of Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders in California say they are struggling with poverty, according to a PRRI report published last November. The survey found that most AAPIs reported coming from a middle, working or lower-class family and described their economic situations as largely unchanged from the one in which they grew up. Sanders’s proposals to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, strengthen unions, invest in affordable housing and provide health care for all could appeal to economically insecure Asian Americans.
But, of course, not all Asian voters are struggling economically. The median household income for Asian Americans in California is about $97,000, according to 2018 data from the Census Bureau, higher than the roughly $75,000 median for Californians of all races. This could help explain some of the support we see for Bloomberg, as he tends to do better with older, wealthier and more moderate Democratic voters whereas Sanders tends to do worse with voters whose household income is over $100,000.
In addition, some older Asian Americans may be less willing to back Sanders because they may be wary of politicians who label themselves socialists. Varun Nikore, president of the AAPI Victory Fund, a super PAC that aims to mobilize Asian American voters in support of Democratic candidates, told me that many older Asian Americans came to the U.S. after fleeing socialist or communist regimes in Vietnam, Korea or China and are therefore more apprehensive of socialism than younger, U.S.-born generations are.
So the fact that both Sanders and Bloomberg are doing reasonably well in the polls we have could reflect a divide within the California Asian American community, where older voters tend to prefer a more moderate candidate and younger voters tend to prefer a more progressive candidate like Sanders.
Of course, this is just four polls, so we should be cautious about reading too much into them. And some of these candidates’ support can probably be chalked up to the same forces that are influencing Americans of all races this election cycle. For instance, it’s hard to escape the Bloomberg ad machine, which has helped him build support in multiple Super Tuesday states, and Sanders, Warren and Bloomberg are all polling pretty highly in California, according to our polling average. Former Vice President Joe Biden, on the other hand, should maybe be a bit concerned he doesn’t have more support among Asian Americans in California, given that he ranks third in our polling average of the state, ahead of Bloomberg, but is trailing the former New York mayor among Asian American voters.
Other polling bites
In a Public Policy Polling survey of likely Texas Democratic primary voters released this week, 32 percent of Asian Americans supported Sanders, 29 percent supported Bloomberg, 20 percent supported former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and 9 percent supported Biden. If Bloomberg wasn’t on the ballot, 53 percent would support Sanders, 17 percent would support Biden and 16 percent would support Buttigieg.
A plurality of Democrats think the Democratic candidate with a plurality of delegates should be the nominee. In other words, Democrats are split on what constitutes a win. In a YouGov poll conducted after the Nevada caucuses, 36 percent of Democrats said the candidate with the most delegates should be the nominee while 33 percent said they shouldn’t. A separate Economist/YouGov poll found that in a open convention scenario, 36 percent want the candidate who won the most votes to receive the nomination, 20 percent of likely primary voters want the candidate who won the most delegates, 10 percent want the candidate who won the most states and 16 percent want the candidate who the polls say will do better in the general election.
4 in 10 Americans are worried about personally experiencing coronavirus, while 2 in 10 are not worried at all, per a Economist/YouGov poll released Feb. 26. The remaining 40 percent said they are not too worried. Concern is pretty uniform across party, but diverges by race: While 51 percent of black Americans reported being worried, just 35 percent of white Americans reported the same.
Of the 77 percent of likely Democratic primary voters who think Russia is interfering in the 2020 election, 40 percent think that Sanders is being helped, according to the Economist/YouGov poll. Seventy-two percent said the same about Trump, 12 percent for Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and 12 percent said Russia is not helping any specific candidates. In that same poll, 81 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they don’t think Sanders wants Russia’s help, while just 59 percent of all registered voters said the same. In comparison, 81 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they do think Trump wants Russia’s help, while 48 percent of all registered voters said the same.
A majority of Americans (55 percent) prefer creamy peanut butter to crunchy peanut butter (31 percent), per a recent YouGov poll. Preference for creamy peanut butter falls to 49 percent in the West and rises to 59 percent in the Northeast.
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 43.2 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.3 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -9.1 points). At this time last week, 44.0 percent approved and 51.5 percent disapproved (for a net approval rating of -7.5 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 42.8 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.8 percent, for a net approval rating of -10 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 6.5 percentage points (47.8 percent to 41.3 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 6.4 points (47.7 percent to 41.3 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 5.8 points (46.9 percent to 41.3 percent).
Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections, including the latest Democratic primary polls.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden fights for a win in South Carolina debate


fivethirtyeight--2020-02-28--What Our Forecast Says In Massachusetts, Maine And Vermont

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight ’ s six-part ( ! )
Super Tuesday preview !
Over the next several days , we ’ ll take you through our primary forecast state by state and district by district , highlighting which candidates are expected to win where — and why .
In this inaugural article , I ’ ll take you on a tour of the three New England states that vote on Tuesday : Massachusetts , Maine and Vermont .
Perhaps unsurprisingly for a candidate from the region , Sen. Bernie Sanders is expected to do well here .
But let ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s not the whole story .
Massachusetts is the most competitive of these states .
According to the FiveThirtyEight forecast , Sanders is a mild favorite to win , with a 3 in 5 ( 59 percent ) chance .
However , Massachusetts is Sen. Elizabeth Warren ’ s backyard , and we give the Bay State ’ s senior senator a 1 in 4 ( 24 percent ) chance of carrying it .
No other candidate ’ s chance of winning is in the double digits , but we can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Joe Biden ( who has a 1 in 12 , or 9 percent , chance of winning the most votes ) , former South Bend , Indiana , Mayor Pete Buttigieg ( 1 in 20 , or 5 percent ) or former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg ( 1 in 30 , or 3 percent ) , who has some Massachusetts ties of his own .
Thirty-two pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be allocated based on the statewide results in Massachusetts .
Currently , our model is forecasting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statewide vote on average , Warren to get 19 percent , Biden to get 15 percent , Buttigieg to get 14 percent , Bloomberg to get 13 percent , Sen. Amy Klobuchar to get 7 percent , Tom Steyer to get 3 percent and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard to get 2 percent .
And as you can see in the table below , our forecasts for Massachusetts ’ s nine congressional districts — which award between six and eight delegates each — are pretty similar .
Sanders is expected to win every district , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ runner-up in most of them as well .
In no district do we expect these two candidates to deviate more than 2 percentage points from their statewide performances .
The district-by-district variation is pretty minor for the other candidates as well — but that doesn ’ t mean it ’ s unimportant .
In fact , it matters a great deal to the delegate math , since Biden , Bloomberg and Buttigieg are all hovering right around the 15-percent threshold necessary to receive any pledged delegates .
According to the model , Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ qualify for delegates in Massachusetts ’ s 7th Congressional District , which covers Boston and some of its densest suburbs .
This is the most establishment district in Massachusetts , based on the 2016 primary results : Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton defeated Sanders here by more than 12 points .
The 7th District is also 59 percent nonwhite , and it is the only Massachusetts district with a sizable black population , a group with which Bloomberg and especially Biden are fairly popular .
In fact , we ’ re forecasting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote in the 7th District , which would put him ahead of Warren .
Biden and Bloomberg also look like they could pick up delegates in the 1st Congressional District , a working-class district in western Massachusetts .
This is the only district in Massachusetts with a college-educated population and a median household income lower than the national average .
Accordingly , Buttigieg and Klobuchar — with their white , college-educated bases — do worst in those two districts .
They are more likely to excel in the tony Boston suburbs , specifically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Newton , Wellesley ) , 5th Congressional District ( Lexington , Weston , Sudbury ) and 6th Congressional District ( Bedford , Lynnfield , Beverly ) .
These districts have the three highest median household incomes in Massachusetts — $ 84,000 a year or higher .
Our model thinks Buttigieg has a shot to nab a delegate or two from these districts , but that Klobuchar is polling too low to do the same .
( Not coincidentally , we are also expecting these to be among Biden ’ s and Bloomberg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a nutshell , if Biden and Bloomberg don ’ t do well in the 1st and 7th districts , or if Buttigieg and Klobuchar don ’ t do well in the Boston suburbs , then it ’ s a bad sign for their overall prospects in Massachusetts .
On the other hand , if Biden and Bloomberg do better than expected in suburbia , or if Buttigieg and Klobuchar are competitive in the 1st and 7th districts , they might be on their way to stronger-than-expected showings statewide — perhaps even enough to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Atlantic coast , Sanders is a solid but not overwhelming favorite in Maine — but no other candidate is particularly close to catching him .
The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Sanders a 3 in 5 ( 63 percent ) chance of winning the Pine Tree State .
The next-likeliest victor is Biden , with just a 1 in 8 ( 12 percent ) chance .
Bloomberg has a 1 in 10 ( 10 percent ) chance , Warren has a 1 in 12 ( 8 percent ) chance and Buttigieg has a 1 in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On average , our model forecasts that 29 percent of Maine primary voters will opt for Sanders , 16 percent each for Biden and Bloomberg , 15 percent for Warren , 14 percent for Buttigieg , 5 percent for Klobuchar and 2 percent each for Steyer and Gabbard .
But the results by congressional district are arguably even more important : In fact , Maine ’ s 1st Congressional District is worth more pledged delegates ( nine ) than the state alone ( eight ) is !
And the 2nd District is worth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s what our forecast says about those : While both are equally monochromatic ( specifically , they are more than 93 percent white ) , there is a stark cultural and class divide between Maine ’ s two congressional districts .
The coastal 1st District is above the national average in terms of income and educational attainment and voted for Clinton by 15 points in 2016 .
Meanwhile , the interior 2nd District has seen its population and economy contract due to the decline of traditional industries such as forestry and agriculture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ type of blue-collar region that deserted Democrats in 2016 , going from supporting former President Barack Obama by 9 percentage points to supporting President Trump by 10 .
Unsurprisingly given how their support breaks down by class , Warren , Klobuchar and especially Buttigieg figure to do better in the 1st District , while Bloomberg and especially Biden look stronger in the 2nd District .
But the differences are quite small and wouldn ’ t normally be worth worrying about — except for the fact that , once again , several candidates are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in all three jurisdictions .
Even small over- or underperformances by Biden , Bloomberg , Buttigieg or Warren in Maine could affect whether they get any pledged delegates out of the state .
But let ’ s keep this in perspective : In the grand scheme of Super Tuesday , Maine doesn ’ t award very many pledged delegates ( 24 in total ) .
Finally , the smallest state ( with only one congressional district ) to vote on Super Tuesday is Vermont .
Don ’ t overthink this one ; Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so thoroughly that any regional differences ( and there were few in 2016 ) are unimportant .
According to the FiveThirtyEight forecast , Sanders ’ s odds of winning are greater than 99 in 100 ( 99 percent ) .
The only question is whether anyone else gets above 15 percent .
Our model currently forecasts Sanders to get 57 percent of the vote , Buttigieg 11 percent , Warren 9 percent , Bloomberg 8 percent , Biden 7 percent , Klobuchar 5 percent and Gabbard and Steyer 1 percent each .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would win every single one of Vermont ’ s 16 pledged delegates .

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s six-part (!) Super Tuesday preview! Over the next several days, we’ll take you through our primary forecast state by state and district by district, highlighting which candidates are expected to win where — and why. In this inaugural article, I’ll take you on a tour of the three New England states that vote on Tuesday: Massachusetts, Maine and Vermont. Perhaps unsurprisingly for a candidate from the region, Sen. Bernie Sanders is expected to do well here. But let’s go a little deeper, as that’s not the whole story.
Massachusetts is the most competitive of these states. According to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, Sanders is a mild favorite to win, with a 3 in 5 (59 percent) chance. However, Massachusetts is Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s backyard, and we give the Bay State’s senior senator a 1 in 4 (24 percent) chance of carrying it. No other candidate’s chance of winning is in the double digits, but we can’t totally count out former Vice President Joe Biden (who has a 1 in 12, or 9 percent, chance of winning the most votes), former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (1 in 20, or 5 percent) or former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (1 in 30, or 3 percent), who has some Massachusetts ties of his own.
Thirty-two pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be allocated based on the statewide results in Massachusetts. Currently, our model is forecasting Sanders to get 26 percent of the statewide vote on average, Warren to get 19 percent, Biden to get 15 percent, Buttigieg to get 14 percent, Bloomberg to get 13 percent, Sen. Amy Klobuchar to get 7 percent, Tom Steyer to get 3 percent and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard to get 2 percent. And as you can see in the table below, our forecasts for Massachusetts’s nine congressional districts — which award between six and eight delegates each — are pretty similar.
Sanders is favored in every Massachusetts district Average forecasted vote share for the top six Democratic presidential candidates in Massachusetts congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 10:30 a.m. on Feb. 28 District Sanders Warren Biden Buttigieg Bloomberg Klobuchar MA-01 26% 19% 18% 11% 15% 6% MA-02 26 19 15 14 13 8 MA-03 27 20 16 12 13 7 MA-04 25 20 13 17 11 10 MA-05 26 21 13 15 11 8 MA-06 25 20 13 15 12 9 MA-07 25 18 21 11 14 5 MA-08 25 19 15 15 12 8 MA-09 26 19 16 13 14 7 State 26 19 15 14 13 7
Sanders is expected to win every district, and Warren is expected to be the runner-up in most of them as well. In no district do we expect these two candidates to deviate more than 2 percentage points from their statewide performances.
The district-by-district variation is pretty minor for the other candidates as well — but that doesn’t mean it’s unimportant. In fact, it matters a great deal to the delegate math, since Biden, Bloomberg and Buttigieg are all hovering right around the 15-percent threshold necessary to receive any pledged delegates.
According to the model, Biden and Bloomberg have the best chance to qualify for delegates in Massachusetts’s 7th Congressional District, which covers Boston and some of its densest suburbs. This is the most establishment district in Massachusetts, based on the 2016 primary results: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton defeated Sanders here by more than 12 points. The 7th District is also 59 percent nonwhite, and it is the only Massachusetts district with a sizable black population, a group with which Bloomberg and especially Biden are fairly popular. In fact, we’re forecasting Biden to get 21 percent of the vote in the 7th District, which would put him ahead of Warren. Biden and Bloomberg also look like they could pick up delegates in the 1st Congressional District, a working-class district in western Massachusetts. This is the only district in Massachusetts with a college-educated population and a median household income lower than the national average.
Accordingly, Buttigieg and Klobuchar — with their white, college-educated bases — do worst in those two districts. They are more likely to excel in the tony Boston suburbs, specifically in the 4th Congressional District (Brookline, Newton, Wellesley), 5th Congressional District (Lexington, Weston, Sudbury) and 6th Congressional District (Bedford, Lynnfield, Beverly). These districts have the three highest median household incomes in Massachusetts — $84,000 a year or higher. Our model thinks Buttigieg has a shot to nab a delegate or two from these districts, but that Klobuchar is polling too low to do the same. (Not coincidentally, we are also expecting these to be among Biden’s and Bloomberg’s worst districts.)
In a nutshell, if Biden and Bloomberg don’t do well in the 1st and 7th districts, or if Buttigieg and Klobuchar don’t do well in the Boston suburbs, then it’s a bad sign for their overall prospects in Massachusetts. On the other hand, if Biden and Bloomberg do better than expected in suburbia, or if Buttigieg and Klobuchar are competitive in the 1st and 7th districts, they might be on their way to stronger-than-expected showings statewide — perhaps even enough to qualify for statewide delegates.
Up the Atlantic coast, Sanders is a solid but not overwhelming favorite in Maine — but no other candidate is particularly close to catching him. The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Sanders a 3 in 5 (63 percent) chance of winning the Pine Tree State. The next-likeliest victor is Biden, with just a 1 in 8 (12 percent) chance. Bloomberg has a 1 in 10 (10 percent) chance, Warren has a 1 in 12 (8 percent) chance and Buttigieg has a 1 in 15 (7 percent) chance.
On average, our model forecasts that 29 percent of Maine primary voters will opt for Sanders, 16 percent each for Biden and Bloomberg, 15 percent for Warren, 14 percent for Buttigieg, 5 percent for Klobuchar and 2 percent each for Steyer and Gabbard. But the results by congressional district are arguably even more important: In fact, Maine’s 1st Congressional District is worth more pledged delegates (nine) than the state alone (eight) is! And the 2nd District is worth almost as many — seven. Here’s what our forecast says about those:
Sanders is strong everywhere in Maine Average forecasted vote share for the top six Democratic presidential candidates in Maine congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 10:30 a.m. on Feb. 28 District Sanders Biden Bloomberg Warren Buttigieg Klobuchar ME-01 29% 15% 15% 15% 16% 5% ME-02 29 18 17 14 13 4 State 29 16 16 15 14 5
While both are equally monochromatic (specifically, they are more than 93 percent white), there is a stark cultural and class divide between Maine’s two congressional districts. The coastal 1st District is above the national average in terms of income and educational attainment and voted for Clinton by 15 points in 2016. Meanwhile, the interior 2nd District has seen its population and economy contract due to the decline of traditional industries such as forestry and agriculture. It is the epitome of the type of blue-collar region that deserted Democrats in 2016, going from supporting former President Barack Obama by 9 percentage points to supporting President Trump by 10.
Unsurprisingly given how their support breaks down by class, Warren, Klobuchar and especially Buttigieg figure to do better in the 1st District, while Bloomberg and especially Biden look stronger in the 2nd District. But the differences are quite small and wouldn’t normally be worth worrying about — except for the fact that, once again, several candidates are right on the cusp of 15 percent in all three jurisdictions. Even small over- or underperformances by Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg or Warren in Maine could affect whether they get any pledged delegates out of the state. But let’s keep this in perspective: In the grand scheme of Super Tuesday, Maine doesn’t award very many pledged delegates (24 in total).
Finally, the smallest state (with only one congressional district) to vote on Super Tuesday is Vermont. Don’t overthink this one; Sanders is expected to dominate his home state so thoroughly that any regional differences (and there were few in 2016) are unimportant. According to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, Sanders’s odds of winning are greater than 99 in 100 (99 percent). The only question is whether anyone else gets above 15 percent. Our model currently forecasts Sanders to get 57 percent of the vote, Buttigieg 11 percent, Warren 9 percent, Bloomberg 8 percent, Biden 7 percent, Klobuchar 5 percent and Gabbard and Steyer 1 percent each. If those results come exactly true, Sanders would win every single one of Vermont’s 16 pledged delegates.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden fights for a win in South Carolina debate


fivethirtyeight--2020-02-28--What’s Going On In South Carolina?

What’s Going On In South Carolina?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight ’ s weekly politics chat .
The transcript below has been lightly edited .
sarahf ( Sarah Frostenson , politics editor ) : With just one day before the South Carolina primary on Saturday , former Vice President Joe Biden has a 14 in 15 shot at winning the most votes in South Carolina , according to our forecast .
He is a heavy favorite and is expected to win 39 percent of the vote , on average .
But a lot of Biden ’ s gains in South Carolina , both in our forecast and our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last several days as polls following Nevada and Tuesday night ’ s debate have started to trickle in .
Prior to this week , things had looked pretty close in South Carolina , and the model even had Sanders in the lead there prior to the Nevada caucuses .
So Galen , you ’ re actually on the ground in South Carolina .
What are you seeing and hearing ?
galen ( Galen Druke , podcast producer and reporter ) : For now , it looks like Biden has managed to reverse the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sen. Bernie Sanders and billionaire Tom Steyer gaining support — in particular black support — here in South Carolina .
A Monmouth poll just came out today showing Biden up by 20 points and winning black voters by almost 30 points .
But to give you some on-the-ground color for what it ’ s like : I spent yesterday morning at the National Action Network ’ s Ministers ’ Breakfast at Mount Moriah Missionary Baptist Church , a large black church in North Charleston , and what I observed in both speaking with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reaction was that Biden was far and away the favorite of the candidates that spoke .
In the afternoon , I went to a Sanders rally in North Charleston that — while more diverse than his New Hampshire rallies — was still very white for a state where 60 percent of the Democratic electorate is black .
geoffrey.skelley ( Geoffrey Skelley , elections analyst ) : Yeah , Galen , that lines up with some of what I found going through South Carolina polls after my visit to the state a week and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ led Biden among white voters in the polls , but Biden leads among black voters , which is very important .
The margins for each candidate could decide whether the race is close or not , though .
While I was there , it seemed like Biden might be in trouble , yet some recent polls show him with a more comfortable lead .
That might come from Steyer fading after Nevada , though it ’ s unclear .
sarahf : Galen is right that that Monmouth poll is a really strong point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I guess I ’ ve been kind of surprised by how much overall support Biden ’ s lost since Iowa .
Granted , this is from an average of national polls , but the fact that the gap between Biden and Sanders ’ s support among black Americans has closed so dramatically in recent weeks makes me wonder how overwhelming the support will be for Biden on Saturday .
clare.malone ( Clare Malone , senior political writer ) : Voters love a winner !
2016 taught us that .
His weaker showings have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s true , but I have to imagine the storyline to watch on Saturday will be how Biden does with black voters .
And I ’ m curious how this plays out across age , given Biden ’ s downturn since Iowa ( although maybe last-minute surge now ) .
Because one thing that has divided voter choice overall — including black voters — is age .
Do we think we ’ ll see that kind of age split in South Carolina ?
Or because it ’ s a more conservative southern state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say , a state like California ?
galen : Yeah , Sarah , when it comes to the generational divide , you ’ re right .
In 2016 , Sanders pulled even with Clinton among black voters under the age of 30 , even though she won almost 80 percent of the black vote overall .
One thing to keep in mind , though , is that young people don ’ t vote at the same rates as older voters , especially in primaries , and that will probably be true here in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Right , Galen .
A plus for Biden is that most voters will be older .
In South Carolina ’ s 2016 Democratic primary , 65 percent of voters were 45 years or older , according to the exit poll .
So even if Sanders can gin up younger voter turnout some — and it ’ s unclear whether he ’ s really been doing that so far — the electorate will likely lean toward older voters .
sarahf : On the point of Biden ’ s mediocre performances so far , how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Galen ?
I know Geoffrey heard a lot from folks earlier this month who said what happened in the first two states didn ’ t matter to them .
galen : I haven ’ t heard a lot of people express doubt about Biden based on poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire .
After all , a lot of the support Biden has is based on years of his presence in the state and his association with the country ’ s first black president .
That can ’ t really be erased @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also had a good — or not so bad — week in the news cycle .
He came in second in Nevada , he performed fine in the debate , and he got the coveted endorsement of House Majority Whip James Clyburn on Wednesday .
By the way , I spoke to Clyburn about why he decided to endorse Biden , and he expressed the same skepticism about Sanders ’ s candidacy that I ’ ve heard from other older black voters as well .
clare.malone : Yes , Galen .
I wrote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden around for a couple months , including in South Carolina .
There ’ s a lot of history and effort that black voters feel Biden has put in , and they ’ re quite attuned to candidates who might be just dropping in and pandering to them .
geoffrey.skelley : Like quoting Martin Luther King , Jr. in your first response to a debate question , Clare ?
galen : Clare , I have talked to a number of voters who have complained about pandering .
Voters here are VERY attuned to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sarahf : So I think both Clare and Galen are right — despite his national slump among black voters — Biden ’ s support in South Carolina is pretty sticky .
But at the same time … how do you explain Steyer in third in our state average there ?
!
?
Is it noise ?
Or has Steyer maybe made serious inroads there aside from all the ad buys ?
clare.malone : Steyer ’ s ads are interesting , since he frames himself not as much as the IMPEACH guy , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more moderate imagery , and the black electorate in the Democratic Party tends to skew moderate .
So he ’ s doing something smart !
But I ’ m not sure if that ’ s actually going to translate into like , a third place win .
But never say die .
galen : I mean he looks like he ’ ll come in third , so I take those polls seriously .
But I don ’ t think what happens here for Steyer in South Carolina says much about the rest of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s more than just ad spending , though .
I saw Steyer ’ s organization first-hand , and it seemed pretty impressive .
They ’ ve made huge investments in attracting African American support , not just with typical election pitches but also community engagement .
The campaign has held a bunch of block parties , for example .
And the campaign seemed to be everywhere .
I even talked to one Sanders volunteer at Sanders ’ s headquarters in Columbia who said he ’ d knocked on some rural doors , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ d seen at those places was from Steyer ’ s campaign .
galen : Steyer ’ s performance in South Carolina , where former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg isn ’ t on the ballot , could be a little test run for Bloomberg ’ s approach , though .
If Steyer ’ s support in polls is reflective of his support on Election Day , that could bode decently for Bloomberg .
If he underperforms his polls , though that may suggest that support “ purchased ” through massive ad/campaign spending may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Right , and we saw how well that worked for Steyer in Nevada .
He invested heavily and still finished in fifth place .
geoffrey.skelley : It ’ s worth noting that Steyer got 9 percent of the initial preference vote in Nevada , and he was at 10 percent in our polling average before the caucuses .
So I ’ m not sure that he really underperformed there .
clare.malone : Though I will say , Bloomberg has perhaps purchased his support slightly differently .
It ’ s ads , sure , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ massive philanthropic network that local and state officials might have benefitted from and therefore will endorse or campaign for him .
That ’ s probably a little more effective than Steyer ’ s ad blitz .
galen : Well , Steyer has gotten some notable endorsements in South Carolina , but he ’ s actually been accused of buying the backing of South Carolinians , which is similar to criticisms that have been lobbed at Bloomberg .
But the big question regarding Steyer in South Carolina , I think , is whether he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to get delegates , cutting into Biden or Sanders ’ s totals .
sarahf : Editor-in-chief Nate Silver had a piece on Thursday where he gamed out three scenarios for how the South Carolina primary could go : 1 ) Large Biden win ( by 10 percentage points or more ) ; 2 ) Modest Biden win ( by less than 10 points ) ; and then 3 ) a Sanders win ( no margin specified ) .
Essentially , what I took away from that piece is the margin on Saturday really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : A big win for Biden resets the media narrative just a few days before Super Tuesday — and that could be big .
It might pull back some moderate voters who had been testing out Bloomberg into Biden ’ s camp .
galen : Yeah , I think the media is ready to tell the Biden comeback story so if it is born out in the actual election results , well , all the better from a narrative perspective .
Also , the Democratic Party apparatus is not super excited about Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if Biden were to win big , they could start to rally around him in a more concrete way if he wins decisively .
clare.malone : And as the Biden people will tell you , they ’ ve always put a big focus on the trove of Southern states that the March contests will bring .
They think they have a lot of strength there and that they can mine a whole lot of votes .
geoffrey.skelley : Yes , basically if Biden is able to get a large enough win and then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you might see a rallying effect for Biden as the Sanders alternative .
I ’ ve been keeping track of the endorsement picture in 2020 vs. the 2016 GOP race , and what you saw then was a bunch of GOP Congress members and governors made endorsements after South Carolina and Nevada .
That hasn ’ t happened in the Democratic race post-Nevada , so maybe they ’ re waiting for South Carolina and Super Tuesday .
clare.malone : That ’ s fair .
I think we ’ re going to see the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ honest .
South Carolina is the shot , Super Tuesday is the chaser .
We ’ ll see what the Wednesday morning after scene is like .
sarahf : So … this is DEFINITELY a broken-record type question at this point , but where does this leave the other candidates in South Carolina ?
What ’ s a good scenario for Buttigieg , Warren or Klobuchar in South Carolina moving forward into Super Tuesday ?
Is there one ?
galen : A good scenario for those candidates coming out of South Carolina is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wins the race , it ’ s basically over .
But if Biden does well , that could also weaken Sanders in Minnesota and Massachusetts , states that Klobuchar and Warren hope to win , respectively .
Now , I don ’ t think that means they will win the majority of delegates or the nomination , but I think they ’ d be doing their part for the party establishment to block Sanders by winning those two states , because otherwise he would probably win them .
geoffrey.skelley : I mean , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reasonable goal for Buttigieg or Klobuchar ?
They ’ re at 7 and 4 percent , respectively , in our South Carolina polling average .
Warren is at 8 percent , so her too , I guess .
galen : I just don ’ t see it happening for Buttigieg and Klobuchar , but hey I ’ ve been wrong before .
geoffrey.skelley : Buttigieg and Klobuchar might benefit if more white moderates vote in the Democratic primary .
South Carolina uses an open primary , so keep an eye on that .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ little skeptical of Trump in places like suburban Charleston and who helped flip the South Carolina 1st to Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham in 2018 — that ’ s a district President Trump carried by 13 points in 2016 .
Not to mention , we saw both Klobuchar and Buttigieg do well among white moderates in New Hampshire , for instance , so it wouldn ’ t be too crazy to think they might replicate that success here .
galen : To Geoff ’ s point , I went to a diner in North @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voter who called himself an independent and told me he really likes Buttigieg .
However , he told me he would be out of town and didn ’ t plan on voting .
He said he didn ’ t realize until he heard on the radio the other day that he could vote in the Democratic primary .
clare.malone : What a recommendation for the radio !
galen : I also spoke to an elderly man wearing a MAGA hat at the diner .
A reminder that President Trump is holding a rally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there isn ’ t a Republican primary here .
You might call that … trolling ?
sarahf : It would be interesting if Biden does well among black Democrats in South Carolina but not as well among white Democrats ( and independents , etc . )
, and we see a kinda a repeat of what happened in New Hampshire .
Does that undermine Biden ’ s electability argument at all if he continues to not win over white moderate support ?
galen : Well , if the Monmouth poll is any indicator @ @ @ @ @ @ @ black and white moderates here .
geoffrey.skelley : If South Carolina does work out that way , Super Tuesday will end up answering that question .
Is there a notable increase in Biden ’ s support among white moderates ?
Or does he continue to split them with Buttigieg , Klobuchar and , of course , Bloomberg , who debuts that day ?
galen : The big question to me is how likely it looks like this is all headed to a contested convention .
If it looks that way after Super Tuesday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a reason to stay in .
But if Biden looks like he can win a majority or strong plurality , I think the party will be like PLEASE GTFO of this race .
And considering that Buttigieg and Klobuchar want to be in good standing with the party , they will probably oblige .
I have no idea about Bloomberg , though .
geoffrey.skelley : It was so clear that Clinton was going to win easily in South Carolina in 2016 that I don ’ t recall people making much of the fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ South Carolina from Super Tuesday last time around .
She was the favorite for the nomination and was going to win the Palmetto State in a walk .
This time , though , the favorite for the nomination — Sanders — is behind in South Carolina , and as Nate wrote , a big Biden win could alter the race ’ s trajectory to some extent .
But once again , there are just three days between these events , so how South Carolina affects things is more uncertain .
sarahf : So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Carolina for the rest of the race ?
To me , it feels like the stakes are higher than in the first three states , because it really is a question now of whether Biden ’ s campaign remains viable , right ?
galen : So , I think South Carolina will help shape the narrative of the race going forward , but like Iowa and New Hampshire , South Carolina is actually not very representative of the Democratic party demographically .
There are only five states in the country where the Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being one of them .
( Nationally , black voters make up about 20 to 25 percent of the Democratic electorate . )
Also , South Carolina is an overwhelmingly Republican state — 17 points more Republican , according to FiveThirtyEight ’ s partisan lean metric .
So , in some ways , if Biden does well there , that doesn ’ t necessarily mean he can do well across the rest of the country .
geoffrey.skelley : It seems like Biden will most likely win South Carolina , but if it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be a sign of weakness that doesn ’ t convince voters who are still considering Bloomberg or Buttigieg or Klobuchar to jump ship and come over to him on Super Tuesday .
If Biden does win by a big margin , though , that could make his campaign far more viable in the long run by winning over some of those voters looking at other moderate alternatives .
As Galen said , South Carolina may not be that representative of the Democratic Party , but it ’ s certainly pretty important for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the leading Sanders alternative .
clare.malone : South Carolina will prime the tank for Super Tuesday , so it ’ s a really important set-up .
If Warren , for instance , finishes low again , perhaps even lower than Klobuchar , and then performs spottily on Super Tuesday , I really wonder if her campaign is over .
A sad political story of steady rise and precipitous fall .
Especially if he has a particularly strong showing , I think Biden could potentially set the table for a comeback of sorts ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a “ no one wins ” ) .
But as we ’ ve said and written before , this whole thing is Sanders ’ s race to lose .

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): With just one day before the South Carolina primary on Saturday, former Vice President Joe Biden has a 14 in 15 shot at winning the most votes in South Carolina, according to our forecast. He is a heavy favorite and is expected to win 39 percent of the vote, on average.
But a lot of Biden’s gains in South Carolina, both in our forecast and our polling average, have come in the last several days as polls following Nevada and Tuesday night’s debate have started to trickle in. Prior to this week, things had looked pretty close in South Carolina, and the model even had Sanders in the lead there prior to the Nevada caucuses.
So Galen, you’re actually on the ground in South Carolina. What are you seeing and hearing?
galen (Galen Druke, podcast producer and reporter): For now, it looks like Biden has managed to reverse the trends of the past couple weeks of Sen. Bernie Sanders and billionaire Tom Steyer gaining support — in particular black support — here in South Carolina. A Monmouth poll just came out today showing Biden up by 20 points and winning black voters by almost 30 points.
But to give you some on-the-ground color for what it’s like: I spent yesterday morning at the National Action Network’s Ministers’ Breakfast at Mount Moriah Missionary Baptist Church, a large black church in North Charleston, and what I observed in both speaking with attendees and observing the crowd’s reaction was that Biden was far and away the favorite of the candidates that spoke.
In the afternoon, I went to a Sanders rally in North Charleston that — while more diverse than his New Hampshire rallies — was still very white for a state where 60 percent of the Democratic electorate is black.
geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Yeah, Galen, that lines up with some of what I found going through South Carolina polls after my visit to the state a week and a half ago. Sanders has often led Biden among white voters in the polls, but Biden leads among black voters, which is very important. The margins for each candidate could decide whether the race is close or not, though.
While I was there, it seemed like Biden might be in trouble, yet some recent polls show him with a more comfortable lead. That might come from Steyer fading after Nevada, though it’s unclear.
sarahf: Galen is right that that Monmouth poll is a really strong point in Biden’s favor, but I guess I’ve been kind of surprised by how much overall support Biden’s lost since Iowa. Granted, this is from an average of national polls, but the fact that the gap between Biden and Sanders’s support among black Americans has closed so dramatically in recent weeks makes me wonder how overwhelming the support will be for Biden on Saturday.
clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): Voters love a winner! 2016 taught us that. His weaker showings have redounding effects.
sarahf: That’s true, but I have to imagine the storyline to watch on Saturday will be how Biden does with black voters. And I’m curious how this plays out across age, given Biden’s downturn since Iowa (although maybe last-minute surge now). Because one thing that has divided voter choice overall — including black voters — is age.
Do we think we’ll see that kind of age split in South Carolina? Or because it’s a more conservative southern state, maybe not as much as, say, a state like California?
galen: Yeah, Sarah, when it comes to the generational divide, you’re right. In 2016, Sanders pulled even with Clinton among black voters under the age of 30, even though she won almost 80 percent of the black vote overall.
One thing to keep in mind, though, is that young people don’t vote at the same rates as older voters, especially in primaries, and that will probably be true here in South Carolina as well.
geoffrey.skelley: Right, Galen. A plus for Biden is that most voters will be older. In South Carolina’s 2016 Democratic primary, 65 percent of voters were 45 years or older, according to the exit poll. So even if Sanders can gin up younger voter turnout some — and it’s unclear whether he’s really been doing that so far — the electorate will likely lean toward older voters.
sarahf: On the point of Biden’s mediocre performances so far, how have folks been grappling with it, Galen? I know Geoffrey heard a lot from folks earlier this month who said what happened in the first two states didn’t matter to them.
galen: I haven’t heard a lot of people express doubt about Biden based on poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire. After all, a lot of the support Biden has is based on years of his presence in the state and his association with the country’s first black president. That can’t really be erased in a couple weeks.
Biden has also had a good — or not so bad — week in the news cycle. He came in second in Nevada, he performed fine in the debate, and he got the coveted endorsement of House Majority Whip James Clyburn on Wednesday. By the way, I spoke to Clyburn about why he decided to endorse Biden, and he expressed the same skepticism about Sanders’s candidacy that I’ve heard from other older black voters as well.
How Rep. James Clyburn settled on endorsing Joe Biden for president
clare.malone: Yes, Galen. I wrote about that this fall when I followed Biden around for a couple months, including in South Carolina. There’s a lot of history and effort that black voters feel Biden has put in, and they’re quite attuned to candidates who might be just dropping in and pandering to them.
geoffrey.skelley: Like quoting Martin Luther King, Jr. in your first response to a debate question, Clare?
galen: Clare, I have talked to a number of voters who have complained about pandering. Voters here are VERY attuned to it and it is SO transparent.
Black South Carolinians to candidates: Quit pandering
sarahf: So I think both Clare and Galen are right — despite his national slump among black voters — Biden’s support in South Carolina is pretty sticky. But at the same time … how do you explain Steyer in third in our state average there?!?
Is it noise? Or has Steyer maybe made serious inroads there aside from all the ad buys?
galen: MONEY $$$$$
clare.malone: Steyer’s ads are interesting, since he frames himself not as much as the IMPEACH guy, but as a businessman. That’s more moderate imagery, and the black electorate in the Democratic Party tends to skew moderate. So he’s doing something smart!
But I’m not sure if that’s actually going to translate into like, a third place win. But never say die.
galen: I mean he looks like he’ll come in third, so I take those polls seriously. But I don’t think what happens here for Steyer in South Carolina says much about the rest of the race nationally.
geoffrey.skelley: It’s more than just ad spending, though. I saw Steyer’s organization first-hand, and it seemed pretty impressive. They’ve made huge investments in attracting African American support, not just with typical election pitches but also community engagement. The campaign has held a bunch of block parties, for example. And the campaign seemed to be everywhere. I even talked to one Sanders volunteer at Sanders’s headquarters in Columbia who said he’d knocked on some rural doors, and the only other literature he’d seen at those places was from Steyer’s campaign.
galen: Steyer’s performance in South Carolina, where former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg isn’t on the ballot, could be a little test run for Bloomberg’s approach, though. If Steyer’s support in polls is reflective of his support on Election Day, that could bode decently for Bloomberg. If he underperforms his polls, though that may suggest that support “purchased” through massive ad/campaign spending may not be that sticky.
sarahf: Right, and we saw how well that worked for Steyer in Nevada. He invested heavily and still finished in fifth place.
geoffrey.skelley: It’s worth noting that Steyer got 9 percent of the initial preference vote in Nevada, and he was at 10 percent in our polling average before the caucuses. So I’m not sure that he really underperformed there.
clare.malone: Though I will say, Bloomberg has perhaps purchased his support slightly differently. It’s ads, sure, but he’s also got a massive philanthropic network that local and state officials might have benefitted from and therefore will endorse or campaign for him. That’s probably a little more effective than Steyer’s ad blitz.
galen: Well, Steyer has gotten some notable endorsements in South Carolina, but he’s actually been accused of buying the backing of South Carolinians, which is similar to criticisms that have been lobbed at Bloomberg.
But the big question regarding Steyer in South Carolina, I think, is whether he can really clear the 15 percent threshold to get delegates, cutting into Biden or Sanders’s totals.
sarahf: Editor-in-chief Nate Silver had a piece on Thursday where he gamed out three scenarios for how the South Carolina primary could go: 1) Large Biden win (by 10 percentage points or more); 2) Modest Biden win (by less than 10 points); and then 3) a Sanders win (no margin specified). Essentially, what I took away from that piece is the margin on Saturday really matters for Biden going forward.
Is that fair?
geoffrey.skelley: A big win for Biden resets the media narrative just a few days before Super Tuesday — and that could be big. It might pull back some moderate voters who had been testing out Bloomberg into Biden’s camp.
galen: Yeah, I think the media is ready to tell the Biden comeback story so if it is born out in the actual election results, well, all the better from a narrative perspective.
Also, the Democratic Party apparatus is not super excited about Sanders, to say the least, so if Biden were to win big, they could start to rally around him in a more concrete way if he wins decisively.
clare.malone: And as the Biden people will tell you, they’ve always put a big focus on the trove of Southern states that the March contests will bring.
They think they have a lot of strength there and that they can mine a whole lot of votes.
galen: TEXAS BABY
geoffrey.skelley: Yes, basically if Biden is able to get a large enough win and then do fairly well on Super Tuesday, you might see a rallying effect for Biden as the Sanders alternative. I’ve been keeping track of the endorsement picture in 2020 vs. the 2016 GOP race, and what you saw then was a bunch of GOP Congress members and governors made endorsements after South Carolina and Nevada. That hasn’t happened in the Democratic race post-Nevada, so maybe they’re waiting for South Carolina and Super Tuesday.
clare.malone: That’s fair. I think we’re going to see the big reassessment post-Super Tuesday, to be honest.
South Carolina is the shot, Super Tuesday is the chaser. We’ll see what the Wednesday morning after scene is like.
sarahf: So … this is DEFINITELY a broken-record type question at this point, but where does this leave the other candidates in South Carolina? What’s a good scenario for Buttigieg, Warren or Klobuchar in South Carolina moving forward into Super Tuesday?
Is there one?
galen: A good scenario for those candidates coming out of South Carolina is a clear Biden win because if Sanders wins the race, it’s basically over.
But if Biden does well, that could also weaken Sanders in Minnesota and Massachusetts, states that Klobuchar and Warren hope to win, respectively.
Now, I don’t think that means they will win the majority of delegates or the nomination, but I think they’d be doing their part for the party establishment to block Sanders by winning those two states, because otherwise he would probably win them.
geoffrey.skelley: I mean, breaking the double digits might be a reasonable goal for Buttigieg or Klobuchar? They’re at 7 and 4 percent, respectively, in our South Carolina polling average.
Warren is at 8 percent, so her too, I guess.
galen: I just don’t see it happening for Buttigieg and Klobuchar, but hey I’ve been wrong before.
geoffrey.skelley: Buttigieg and Klobuchar might benefit if more white moderates vote in the Democratic primary. South Carolina uses an open primary, so keep an eye on that. There are Republican-leaning voters who are a little skeptical of Trump in places like suburban Charleston and who helped flip the South Carolina 1st to Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham in 2018 — that’s a district President Trump carried by 13 points in 2016.
Not to mention, we saw both Klobuchar and Buttigieg do well among white moderates in New Hampshire, for instance, so it wouldn’t be too crazy to think they might replicate that success here.
galen: To Geoff’s point, I went to a diner in North Charleston yesterday and spoke with a white voter who called himself an independent and told me he really likes Buttigieg. However, he told me he would be out of town and didn’t plan on voting. He said he didn’t realize until he heard on the radio the other day that he could vote in the Democratic primary.
geoffrey.skelley: Democracy!
clare.malone: What a recommendation for the radio!
galen: I also spoke to an elderly man wearing a MAGA hat at the diner. A reminder that President Trump is holding a rally in North Charleston in Friday even though there isn’t a Republican primary here.
You might call that … trolling?
sarahf: It would be interesting if Biden does well among black Democrats in South Carolina but not as well among white Democrats (and independents, etc.), and we see a kinda a repeat of what happened in New Hampshire.
Does that undermine Biden’s electability argument at all if he continues to not win over white moderate support?
galen: Well, if the Monmouth poll is any indicator, Biden will do fine with both black and white moderates here.
geoffrey.skelley: If South Carolina does work out that way, Super Tuesday will end up answering that question. Is there a notable increase in Biden’s support among white moderates? Or does he continue to split them with Buttigieg, Klobuchar and, of course, Bloomberg, who debuts that day?
galen: The big question to me is how likely it looks like this is all headed to a contested convention. If it looks that way after Super Tuesday, then the other moderates will have a reason to stay in. But if Biden looks like he can win a majority or strong plurality, I think the party will be like PLEASE GTFO of this race.
And considering that Buttigieg and Klobuchar want to be in good standing with the party, they will probably oblige.
I have no idea about Bloomberg, though.
geoffrey.skelley: It was so clear that Clinton was going to win easily in South Carolina in 2016 that I don’t recall people making much of the fact that there were only three days separating South Carolina from Super Tuesday last time around. She was the favorite for the nomination and was going to win the Palmetto State in a walk. This time, though, the favorite for the nomination — Sanders — is behind in South Carolina, and as Nate wrote, a big Biden win could alter the race’s trajectory to some extent. But once again, there are just three days between these events, so how South Carolina affects things is more uncertain.
sarahf: So how important, then, is South Carolina for the rest of the race? To me, it feels like the stakes are higher than in the first three states, because it really is a question now of whether Biden’s campaign remains viable, right?
galen: So, I think South Carolina will help shape the narrative of the race going forward, but like Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina is actually not very representative of the Democratic party demographically. There are only five states in the country where the Democratic electorate is majority black — South Carolina being one of them. (Nationally, black voters make up about 20 to 25 percent of the Democratic electorate.)
Also, South Carolina is an overwhelmingly Republican state — 17 points more Republican, according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric. So, in some ways, if Biden does well there, that doesn’t necessarily mean he can do well across the rest of the country.
geoffrey.skelley: It seems like Biden will most likely win South Carolina, but if it’s a pretty narrow win, that could be a sign of weakness that doesn’t convince voters who are still considering Bloomberg or Buttigieg or Klobuchar to jump ship and come over to him on Super Tuesday.
If Biden does win by a big margin, though, that could make his campaign far more viable in the long run by winning over some of those voters looking at other moderate alternatives.
As Galen said, South Carolina may not be that representative of the Democratic Party, but it’s certainly pretty important for Biden’s long-term hope of being the leading Sanders alternative.
clare.malone: South Carolina will prime the tank for Super Tuesday, so it’s a really important set-up. If Warren, for instance, finishes low again, perhaps even lower than Klobuchar, and then performs spottily on Super Tuesday, I really wonder if her campaign is over. A sad political story of steady rise and precipitous fall.
Especially if he has a particularly strong showing, I think Biden could potentially set the table for a comeback of sorts (or maybe a campaign to tie or a “no one wins”). But as we’ve said and written before, this whole thing is Sanders’s race to lose.


fivethirtyeight--2020-02-28--Why Younger Democrats Are Overwhelmingly Rejecting Biden

Do all younger Democrats have an Uncle Joe that they hate or something ?
Because there ’ s a good chance that Democrats under the age of 45 will prove crucial in preventing former Vice President Joe Biden from winning — or even getting close to winning — the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination .
Younger Democrats , particularly younger white Democrats , are emphatically rejecting his candidacy .
That cohort is a big reason why Biden has struggled in the first three states and fallen from front-runner status .
In fact , age might be the most important fault line @ @ @ @ @ @ @ course , Biden ’ s weakness among younger Democrats is in part the result of Sen. Bernie Sanders ’ s strength with that group .
But Sanders ’ s appeal doesn ’ t totally explain Biden ’ s struggles .
In Iowa , for example , Biden received just 4 percent of the under-45 vote , according to entrance polls .
That trailed Sanders ( 41 percent ) , but it also lagged behind former South Bend , Indiana , Mayor Pete Buttigieg ( 21 percent ) , Sen. Elizabeth Warren ( 16 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( 10 percent ) .
Biden also finished in the single digits among voters under 45 — and behind Buttigieg , Sanders and Warren — in New Hampshire and Nevada .
A recent poll of Democrats in California , a Super Tuesday state , found Biden at 9 percent among voters under 45 .
He ’ s not faring better in other Super Tuesday states , as recent polls have him at 4 percent in Colorado , 11 percent in Texas and 11 percent in Virginia with this group .
If you start @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is some variation in how well Biden does , but not a ton .
His numbers are especially bad among the youngest cohort of voters , 17 or 18- to 29-year-olds , but he generally does only slightly better in the 30-to-44 bracket .
And we don ’ t have a lot of data breaking down the views of voters under 45 by race , but national polling and a recent survey in South Carolina suggests Biden is at least in double digits among black Democrats under 45 .
So the results in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surveys make me think that Biden is particularly weak with younger white Democrats .
Not surprisingly , Biden ’ s weakness among these voters has a huge effect on his overall viability .
In the first three states , exit and entrance polls suggest between one-third and 45 percent of Democratic primary voters were under 45 .
In other words , this is a big group .
And it ’ s not like this weakness for the Biden campaign came out of nowhere .
HuffPost did an extensive story on Biden ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ At the time it was written , though , the primaries had not actually started , so Biden ’ s lack of appeal among younger voters was just theoretical .
And back then , it looked as if Biden and Sanders ’ s support simply mirrored one another : Sanders seemed as weak with older voters as Biden was with younger ones .
But so far in the actual voting , these problems have not been equivalent : Biden beat Sanders by 2 percentage points among voters over 45 in Nevada , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden by 48 points among voters under 45 .
The natural question is … why ?
Why is Biden struggling so much to win the support of younger people — not only trailing Sanders , but Buttigieg and Warren too ?
Here are the four most obvious explanations : 1 .
Younger Democrats are more liberal and anti-institutional In some ways , 2020 is just a repeat of 2016 : The party establishment and older Democrats embraced more center-left figures — Hillary Clinton in 2016 , and Michael Bloomberg , Buttigieg and Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behind the more liberal Sanders .
Clinton lost to Sanders among younger voters by around 50 points in New Hampshire in 2016 — an even larger margin than Biden ’ s deficit this year .
Indeed , the Democratic Party appears to be in the midst of a generational fight that started in 2016 and is continuing now .
For example , the left-leaning but gray-haired commentators on MSNBC have been deeply frustrated by the rise of Sanders .
Conversely , it ’ s hard to find much Biden support on Twitter , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people and more liberal Democrats .
Buttigieg and Warren , while not as liberal or as anti-establishment as Sanders , are also to the left of Biden , which in part explains why the ex-vice president isn ’ t the clear second-favorite of younger Democrats either .
The big difference between 2016 and 2020 is that Clinton was dominant among voters over 45 in many states , so she could overcome being the establishment candidate who young people weren ’ t excited about .
In contrast , Biden has not consolidated that older @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Democrats this year are prioritizing a candidate who can defeat President Trump ( a mantel Biden has claimed ) over a candidate who they agree with on major issues .
But that varies by age — older Democrats are more likely to say they prioritize “ electability , ” while those under 45 are much more split on this question .
This data may be a bit circular — perhaps the younger voters who support Warren or Sanders tell pollsters that they don ’ t prioritize electability because that is not a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ message , and maybe older people who are inclined to support Biden and Buttigieg point to electability because it ’ s been core to both candidates ’ messages .
But I think it ’ s also possible that many voters who are more liberal and interested in seeing systemic change genuinely don ’ t find Biden ’ s electability message that compelling .
In this sense , I wonder if Biden ’ s struggles with young voters were almost inevitable — presenting himself as the party ’ s best hope for the general @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Democrats ’ younger , more liberal cohort somewhat unsatisfied during the primary .
In 2019 , the former vice president and his team seemed to deeply internalize the conventional wisdom among many establishment and center-left figures : that “ Twitter is not real life ” and that Democrats should not be too “ woke.
” Biden has seemed very frustrated at times with young liberal activists who have confronted him at rallies and argued that he was too conservative on some issues .
He was fairly dismissive of criticisms of his handling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ touching of women in ways that some of them considered inappropriate .
He suggested the views of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez didn ’ t represent those of many other Democrats .
His campaign aides downplayed the power of “ Pod Save America ” and did little to court the “ black left.
” This all looked fairly savvy ( or at least somewhat harmless ) … until voting started .
And you wonder now whether the Biden campaign could have at least competed for young voters by taking a different approach .
4 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ repeat the Obama presidency This overlaps a bit with No .
1 , but it ’ s worth mentioning because carrying on Barack Obama ’ s legacy has been such a central part of Biden ’ s message .
( The former president is immensely popular among Democrats . )
But a HuffPost/YouGov survey conducted in April 2019 found that 42 percent of Democrats ages 18-29 want the next Democratic nominee to be more liberal than Obama , while only about a quarter of Democrats 30 and over had that view .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as Obama ’ s heir , while probably not costing him voters , may not help him court younger Democrats .
It ’ s still possible that Biden wins the nomination without carrying young Democrats .
If older voters really mobilize behind him , he could defeat Sanders the way Clinton did in 2016 .
Perhaps more voters , old and young , will come to the vice president as the field narrows .
But it ’ s hard to see Biden securing the nomination without improving his appeal among voters under 45 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might lean into strategies to excite younger people .
At this point , I think it ’ s unlikely that younger elected officials in the Democratic Party are going to endorse Biden in meaningful numbers .
But there ’ s nothing stopping Biden from effectively endorsing them .
He could , for example , strongly imply that he would tap Stacey Abrams for vice president if he wins the nomination .
( At 46 , Abrams is not that young herself , but her campaign events during the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial race were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ my reporting , often packed with young Democrats . )
Or perhaps Biden could shift his message a bit .

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

Do all younger Democrats have an Uncle Joe that they hate or something? Because there’s a good chance that Democrats under the age of 45 will prove crucial in preventing former Vice President Joe Biden from winning — or even getting close to winning — the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Younger Democrats, particularly younger white Democrats, are emphatically rejecting his candidacy. That cohort is a big reason why Biden has struggled in the first three states and fallen from front-runner status.
In fact, age might be the most important fault line in the 2020 Democratic primary.
Of course, Biden’s weakness among younger Democrats is in part the result of Sen. Bernie Sanders’s strength with that group. But Sanders’s appeal doesn’t totally explain Biden’s struggles. In Iowa, for example, Biden received just 4 percent of the under-45 vote, according to entrance polls. That trailed Sanders (41 percent), but it also lagged behind former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (21 percent), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (16 percent) and tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang (10 percent). Biden also finished in the single digits among voters under 45 — and behind Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren — in New Hampshire and Nevada. A recent poll of Democrats in California, a Super Tuesday state, found Biden at 9 percent among voters under 45. He’s not faring better in other Super Tuesday states, as recent polls have him at 4 percent in Colorado, 11 percent in Texas and 11 percent in Virginia with this group.
Biden has a real problem with young voters Candidate vote shares from entrance polls in Iowa and Nevada and from exit polls in New Hampshire, by age Voters under 45 Over 45 Iowa N.H. Nev. Iowa n.h. Nev. Biden 4% 5% 8% 25% 10% 23% Buttigieg 21 22 13 24 25 16 Klobuchar 5 8 4 19 27 13 Sanders 41 42 56 8 18 21 Warren 16 10 13 17 9 13 Sample size was 1,636 in Iowa, 2,774 in Nevada and 2,932 in New Hampshire Source: Edison Research
If you start breaking down that under-45 group, there is some variation in how well Biden does, but not a ton. His numbers are especially bad among the youngest cohort of voters, 17 or 18- to 29-year-olds, but he generally does only slightly better in the 30-to-44 bracket. And we don’t have a lot of data breaking down the views of voters under 45 by race, but national polling and a recent survey in South Carolina suggests Biden is at least in double digits among black Democrats under 45. So the results in Iowa and New Hampshire and in other surveys make me think that Biden is particularly weak with younger white Democrats.
Not surprisingly, Biden’s weakness among these voters has a huge effect on his overall viability. In the first three states, exit and entrance polls suggest between one-third and 45 percent of Democratic primary voters were under 45. In other words, this is a big group.
And it’s not like this weakness for the Biden campaign came out of nowhere. HuffPost did an extensive story on Biden’s struggles with young voters in December. At the time it was written, though, the primaries had not actually started, so Biden’s lack of appeal among younger voters was just theoretical. And back then, it looked as if Biden and Sanders’s support simply mirrored one another: Sanders seemed as weak with older voters as Biden was with younger ones. But so far in the actual voting, these problems have not been equivalent: Biden beat Sanders by 2 percentage points among voters over 45 in Nevada, according to entrance polls, while Sanders beat Biden by 48 points among voters under 45.
The natural question is … why? Why is Biden struggling so much to win the support of younger people — not only trailing Sanders, but Buttigieg and Warren too? Here are the four most obvious explanations:
1. Younger Democrats are more liberal and anti-institutional
In some ways, 2020 is just a repeat of 2016: The party establishment and older Democrats embraced more center-left figures — Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Michael Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Biden in 2020 — while younger voters got behind the more liberal Sanders. Clinton lost to Sanders among younger voters by around 50 points in New Hampshire in 2016 — an even larger margin than Biden’s deficit this year.
Indeed, the Democratic Party appears to be in the midst of a generational fight that started in 2016 and is continuing now. For example, the left-leaning but gray-haired commentators on MSNBC have been deeply frustrated by the rise of Sanders. Conversely, it’s hard to find much Biden support on Twitter, which tends to be used by younger people and more liberal Democrats. Buttigieg and Warren, while not as liberal or as anti-establishment as Sanders, are also to the left of Biden, which in part explains why the ex-vice president isn’t the clear second-favorite of younger Democrats either.
The big difference between 2016 and 2020 is that Clinton was dominant among voters over 45 in many states, so she could overcome being the establishment candidate who young people weren’t excited about. In contrast, Biden has not consolidated that older bloc.
2. The electability argument doesn’t land
Polling suggests that the majority of Democrats this year are prioritizing a candidate who can defeat President Trump (a mantle Biden has claimed) over a candidate who they agree with on major issues. But that varies by age — older Democrats are more likely to say they prioritize “electability,” while those under 45 are much more split on this question.
This data may be a bit circular — perhaps the younger voters who support Warren or Sanders tell pollsters that they don’t prioritize electability because that is not a big part of either senator’s message, and maybe older people who are inclined to support Biden and Buttigieg point to electability because it’s been core to both candidates’ messages. But I think it’s also possible that many voters who are more liberal and interested in seeing systemic change genuinely don’t find Biden’s electability message that compelling. In this sense, I wonder if Biden’s struggles with young voters were almost inevitable — presenting himself as the party’s best hope for the general election may have required Biden to keep the Democrats’ younger, more liberal cohort somewhat unsatisfied during the primary.
3. Biden isn’t wooing younger voters well
In 2019, the former vice president and his team seemed to deeply internalize the conventional wisdom among many establishment and center-left figures: that “Twitter is not real life” and that Democrats should not be too “woke.” Biden has seemed very frustrated at times with young liberal activists who have confronted him at rallies and argued that he was too conservative on some issues. He was fairly dismissive of criticisms of his handling of the Clarence Thomas hearings and his touching of women in ways that some of them considered inappropriate. He suggested the views of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez didn’t represent those of many other Democrats. His campaign aides downplayed the power of “Pod Save America” and did little to court the “black left.”
This all looked fairly savvy (or at least somewhat harmless) … until voting started. And you wonder now whether the Biden campaign could have at least competed for young voters by taking a different approach.
4. Younger Democrats don’t want to repeat the Obama presidency
This overlaps a bit with No. 1, but it’s worth mentioning because carrying on Barack Obama’s legacy has been such a central part of Biden’s message. (The former president is immensely popular among Democrats.) But a HuffPost/YouGov survey conducted in April 2019 found that 42 percent of Democrats ages 18-29 want the next Democratic nominee to be more liberal than Obama, while only about a quarter of Democrats 30 and over had that view. So Biden’s strategy of positioning himself as Obama’s heir, while probably not costing him voters, may not help him court younger Democrats.
It’s still possible that Biden wins the nomination without carrying young Democrats. If older voters really mobilize behind him, he could defeat Sanders the way Clinton did in 2016. Perhaps more voters, old and young, will come to the vice president as the field narrows.
But it’s hard to see Biden securing the nomination without improving his appeal among voters under 45. If I were Biden, I might lean into strategies to excite younger people. At this point, I think it’s unlikely that younger elected officials in the Democratic Party are going to endorse Biden in meaningful numbers. But there’s nothing stopping Biden from effectively endorsing them. He could, for example, strongly imply that he would tap Stacey Abrams for vice president if he wins the nomination. (At 46, Abrams is not that young herself, but her campaign events during the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial race were, I noticed throughout the course of my reporting, often packed with young Democrats.) Or perhaps Biden could shift his message a bit.
Black South Carolinians to candidates: Quit pandering


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-01--Politics Podcast: How Biden Made A Comeback In South Carolina

Former Vice President Joe Biden won big in South Carolina on Saturday , besting Sen. Bernie Sanders by nearly 30 @ @ @ @ @ installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses how Biden pulled ahead in @ @ @ @ @ competitive race just two weeks ago .
They also debate what it means for the @ @ @ @ @ whether it ’ s now a two-person race .
You can listen to the episode @ @ @ @ @ ” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the @ @ @ @ @ podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
@ @ @ @ @ Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating @ @ @ @ @ Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” @ @ @ @ @ email , on Twitter or in the comments .

Former Vice President Joe Biden won big in South Carolina on Saturday, besting Sen. Bernie Sanders by nearly 30 points. In a late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how Biden pulled ahead in what looked to be a competitive race just two weeks ago. They also debate what it means for the Democratic primary going forward and whether it’s now a two-person race.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-01--Goodbye To Tom Steyer, The Other Billionaire Whose 2020 Campaign Never Made Much Sense

In a field that included heavyweights such as Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders , perhaps no other Democratic presidential hopeful really had much of a chance in the first place .
It sure looks that way right now .
But even relative to the other longshots , Tom Steyer , who dropped out of the race on Saturday night after a disappointing finish in the South Carolina primary , was a longshot .
Nor was it entirely clear why he was running .
Steyer , a billionaire from his previous career as a hedge fund manager , spent the years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in particular : efforts to mitigate climate change and the impeachment of President Trump .
But Steyer ’ s presidential campaign wasn ’ t particularly focused on either issue — or anything else .
He embraced some more liberal ideas ( a wealth tax ) and opposed others ( Medicare for All ) .
He cast himself as a populist while also emphasizing his business experience .
He touted his electability and his commitment to fighting climate change , but not in ways that were particularly unique compared to the other candidates .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ skipping Iowa and New Hampshire while using his fortune to pump ads into states later in the calendar that the other candidates were not focused on yet , was fairly novel at first .
And it halfway worked .
According to our polling averages , Steyer eked just into the double digits in Nevada and South Carolina .
He finished with 5 percent of county convention delegates in Nevada and 11 percent of the vote in South Carolina .
That ’ s more than a lot of candidates managed .
But it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polls , Steyer ’ s support never escaped the low single digits : None of it was enough .
Steyer didn ’ t manage to win a single delegate to the national convention .
And he was largely overshadowed by Michael Bloomberg once he entered the race — another billionaire who took a similar electoral strategy as Steyer but was better-positioned to execute it .
Unlike Steyer , Bloomberg had previous experience in elective office , as New York ’ s mayor .
Bloomberg had a bigger network of relationships in the Democratic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ major endorsements — and significantly more wealth ( an estimated $ 60 billion ) than Steyer ( $ 1.6 billion ) , allowing Bloomberg to spend a staggering amount on television commercials .
And it ’ s still not clear that Bloomberg ’ s comparative advantages will do much for him either .
Steyer eventually settled on a more narrow electoral strategy , investing heavily in South Carolina , that … also did not make much sense .
Steyer had no real previous connection to the state or black voters , who accounted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Democratic electorate .
Steyer opted to leave the presidential race after his disappointing finish Saturday night , realizing he had little path to victory .
Some candidates who aren ’ t likely to be the Democratic nominee — in particular , Pete Buttigieg , Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang — are likely to emerge from the process having gained something .
Some of Warren ’ s ideas are likely to be included in the platform of the eventual Democratic nominee and perhaps embraced by others in the party .
Buttigieg and Yang @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — have built networks that will make it easier for them to seek elected office in the future .
In contrast , it ’ s hard to see how this run sets Steyer up for a future U.S. Senate or governor bid , never mind another presidential run .

In a field that included heavyweights such as Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, perhaps no other Democratic presidential hopeful really had much of a chance in the first place. It sure looks that way right now. But even relative to the other longshots, Tom Steyer, who dropped out of the race on Saturday night after a disappointing finish in the South Carolina primary, was a longshot. Nor was it entirely clear why he was running.
Steyer, a billionaire from his previous career as a hedge fund manager, spent the years before his presidential run pushing two causes in particular: efforts to mitigate climate change and the impeachment of President Trump. But Steyer’s presidential campaign wasn’t particularly focused on either issue — or anything else. He embraced some more liberal ideas (a wealth tax) and opposed others (Medicare for All). He cast himself as a populist while also emphasizing his business experience. He touted his electability and his commitment to fighting climate change, but not in ways that were particularly unique compared to the other candidates.
Steyer’s broader electoral strategy, skipping Iowa and New Hampshire while using his fortune to pump ads into states later in the calendar that the other candidates were not focused on yet, was fairly novel at first. And it halfway worked. According to our polling averages, Steyer eked just into the double digits in Nevada and South Carolina. He finished with 5 percent of county convention delegates in Nevada and 11 percent of the vote in South Carolina. That’s more than a lot of candidates managed.
But it’s not good. And in national polls, Steyer’s support never escaped the low single digits:
None of it was enough. Steyer didn’t manage to win a single delegate to the national convention. And he was largely overshadowed by Michael Bloomberg once he entered the race — another billionaire who took a similar electoral strategy as Steyer but was better-positioned to execute it. Unlike Steyer, Bloomberg had previous experience in elective office, as New York’s mayor. Bloomberg had a bigger network of relationships in the Democratic Party — that resulted in lots of major endorsements — and significantly more wealth (an estimated $60 billion) than Steyer ($1.6 billion), allowing Bloomberg to spend a staggering amount on television commercials. And it’s still not clear that Bloomberg’s comparative advantages will do much for him either.
Steyer eventually settled on a more narrow electoral strategy, investing heavily in South Carolina, that … also did not make much sense. Steyer had no real previous connection to the state or black voters, who accounted for a majority of South Carolina’s Democratic electorate. Steyer opted to leave the presidential race after his disappointing finish Saturday night, realizing he had little path to victory.
Some candidates who aren’t likely to be the Democratic nominee — in particular, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang — are likely to emerge from the process having gained something. Some of Warren’s ideas are likely to be included in the platform of the eventual Democratic nominee and perhaps embraced by others in the party. Buttigieg and Yang — both of whom are relatively young — have built networks that will make it easier for them to seek elected office in the future. In contrast, it’s hard to see how this run sets Steyer up for a future U.S. Senate or governor bid, never mind another presidential run.