fivethirtyeight--2020-10-29--The Battleground States Where We’ve Seen Some Movement In The Polls

With apologies to The Raconteurs , the presidential race continues to be “ steady as she goes , ” with little sign of tightening despite a plethora of new polls .
FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election , while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance .
This makes Biden the favorite , but still leaves open a narrow path to victory for Trump , for whom a reelection win would be surprising — but not utterly shocking .
At the same time , we also have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have historically been more accurate and have shown slightly better numbers for Biden , than polls that use other methodologies , such as polls conducted primarily online or through automated telephone calls .
Nevertheless , while the overall picture has shifted only a little in recent days , a few battleground states have seen at least some movement in their polls , which has slightly altered the odds Biden or Trump wins in each of those places .
For instance , we ’ ve gotten three new high-quality polls today from Florida that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tuesday , and although these polls have helped Biden a tad , they actually tell a pretty mixed tale compared to each pollster ’ s last look at the Florida situation .
For instance , NBC News/Marist College gave Biden a 4-point lead , 51 percent to 47 percent , which was a narrow improvement for Biden from the tied race Marist found in early September .
However , Quinnipiac University found Biden ahead by just 3 points , 45 percent to 42 percent , which marked a sizable slide from the 11-point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And yesterday , Reuters/Ipsos also reported a small downturn in Biden ’ s numbers , as their poll found him up by 2 points , 49 percent to 47 percent , a slight tick down from his 4-point lead about a week ago .
Bottom line : Florida is close , like it always seems to be .
From Florida , we can slide our gaze north of the St. Mary ’ s River to look at Georgia , where we ’ ve actually seen a more sizable shift in Biden ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Biden now has a 57 in 100 chance of winning Georgia , up from 46 in 100 on Monday .
This is important because Georgia is a state that Trump absolutely must win to have any chance of victory — in fact , he wins in less than 1 percent of the scenarios in which Biden carries it .
We have one new poll today that largely aligns with recent polling that has boosted Biden ’ s chances in Georgia .
Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling put Biden ahead by 2 points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ essentially the same as what the pollster found in early October .
Meanwhile , Monmouth University released a Georgia survey yesterday that gave Biden a 2-point or 4-point lead , depending on projected turnout among likely voters , which marked a swing from the pollster ’ s mid-September poll that had Trump ahead by 2 or 5 points , again depending on turnout .
But the short of it in Georgia is that results showing Biden slightly ahead or tied with Trump have become more common .
In fact , Trump has only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 13 released in the past 10 days .
Ohio is another state where Trump seemed to have a slight edge , but is now more of a toss-up as our forecast has swung toward Biden and gives both candidates a 1 in 2 shot of winning it .
Two new polls out today precipitated this shift toward Biden , moving the state ’ s polling average from a 2-point Trump lead to a tie .
Most importantly , Quinnipiac University found Biden up by 5 points , 48 percent to 43 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Biden from Quinnipiac ’ s last survey in early October that had him up by just 1 point .
That poll was the main driver of the shift today in Ohio .
Because not all of the news was good for Biden in Ohio .
Gravis Marketing found Trump ahead in their latest poll , 49 percent to 47 percent .
( This was Gravis ’ s first public poll of Ohio . )
However , some other key states haven ’ t seen much movement despite new polling .
For example @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of new polls in Pennsylvania since late yesterday that both give Biden a lead in the mid-to-high single digits , and one was even a high-quality live-caller poll , which we ’ ve lacked here to some extent .
But they didn ’ t change the forecast ’ s outlook : Biden still has a 86 in 100 chance of winning there .
Neither new poll showed much of a change from its previous Pennsylvania survey either .
The aforementioned live-caller survey from Quinnipiac University that came out today found Biden up 7 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but that was practically identical to what it found in the middle of October .
Similarly , PoliticalIQ/RMG Research ’ s new survey gave Biden a 6-point advantage , 51 percent to 45 percent , the same margin the pollster found in early October .
We ’ re watching Pennsylvania especially closely , as any movement here matters a lot in our forecast , as it ’ s the state currently most likely to decide the Electoral College .
And the margin as it currently stands leaves room for Trump to win @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as it might take a bit to get the final result there .
Like Pennsylvania , North Carolina is another state where the forecast has hardly budged in the past few days .
Biden now has a 65 in 100 shot of carrying the state , but it ’ s been around that mark since last weekend .
In fact , two new polls released today showed essentially no movement compared to each of the pollsters ’ last surveys in North Carolina .
The New York Times Upshot/Siena College found Biden ahead by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent , pretty similar to the 46 percent to 42 percent edge they gave him in mid-October , but now with fewer undecided voters .
Meanwhile , UMass Lowell found the two candidates knotted at 48 percent apiece , which was pretty much the same as a late September poll that found them tied at 47 percent .
On the whole , the topline numbers in this race haven ’ t changed much .
On the one hand , that ’ s good news for Biden as he remains a favorite to win @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the polls mostly hold where they are , it will take a sizable polling error for Trump to win .
However , Biden ’ s advantage would be more concrete were his position in Pennsylvania to improve in the closing days of the campaign .
So we ’ ll just have to see if anything shifts in the final days that changes the trajectory of the race .

The Battleground States Where We’ve Seen Some Movement In The Polls And states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, which have largely remained the same.
With apologies to The Raconteurs, the presidential race continues to be “steady as she goes,” with little sign of tightening despite a plethora of new polls. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election, while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance. This makes Biden the favorite, but still leaves open a narrow path to victory for Trump, for whom a reelection win would be surprising — but not utterly shocking.
At the same time, we also have fewer polls from live-caller surveys, which have historically been more accurate and have shown slightly better numbers for Biden, than polls that use other methodologies, such as polls conducted primarily online or through automated telephone calls. Nevertheless, while the overall picture has shifted only a little in recent days, a few battleground states have seen at least some movement in their polls, which has slightly altered the odds Biden or Trump wins in each of those places.
What election stories need to get more coverage | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
For instance, we’ve gotten three new high-quality polls today from Florida that were in the field through at least Tuesday, and although these polls have helped Biden a tad, they actually tell a pretty mixed tale compared to each pollster’s last look at the Florida situation. For instance, NBC News/Marist College gave Biden a 4-point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent, which was a narrow improvement for Biden from the tied race Marist found in early September. However, Quinnipiac University found Biden ahead by just 3 points, 45 percent to 42 percent, which marked a sizable slide from the 11-point edge it gave Biden in early October.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
And yesterday, Reuters/Ipsos also reported a small downturn in Biden’s numbers, as their poll found him up by 2 points, 49 percent to 47 percent, a slight tick down from his 4-point lead about a week ago. Bottom line: Florida is close, like it always seems to be.
From Florida, we can slide our gaze north of the St. Mary’s River to look at Georgia, where we’ve actually seen a more sizable shift in Biden’s direction over the past few days. Biden now has a 57 in 100 chance of winning Georgia, up from 46 in 100 on Monday. This is important because Georgia is a state that Trump absolutely must win to have any chance of victory — in fact, he wins in less than 1 percent of the scenarios in which Biden carries it.
We have one new poll today that largely aligns with recent polling that has boosted Biden’s chances in Georgia. Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling put Biden ahead by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent, essentially the same as what the pollster found in early October. Meanwhile, Monmouth University released a Georgia survey yesterday that gave Biden a 2-point or 4-point lead, depending on projected turnout among likely voters, which marked a swing from the pollster’s mid-September poll that had Trump ahead by 2 or 5 points, again depending on turnout. But the short of it in Georgia is that results showing Biden slightly ahead or tied with Trump have become more common. In fact, Trump has only led in two Georgia surveys out of the 13 released in the past 10 days.
Ohio is another state where Trump seemed to have a slight edge, but is now more of a toss-up as our forecast has swung toward Biden and gives both candidates a 1 in 2 shot of winning it.
Two new polls out today precipitated this shift toward Biden, moving the state’s polling average from a 2-point Trump lead to a tie. Most importantly, Quinnipiac University found Biden up by 5 points, 48 percent to 43 percent, which was a fairly substantial improvement for Biden from Quinnipiac’s last survey in early October that had him up by just 1 point. That poll was the main driver of the shift today in Ohio. Because not all of the news was good for Biden in Ohio. Gravis Marketing found Trump ahead in their latest poll, 49 percent to 47 percent. (This was Gravis’s first public poll of Ohio.)
However, some other key states haven’t seen much movement despite new polling. For example, we’ve seen a couple of new polls in Pennsylvania since late yesterday that both give Biden a lead in the mid-to-high single digits, and one was even a high-quality live-caller poll, which we’ve lacked here to some extent. But they didn’t change the forecast’s outlook: Biden still has a 86 in 100 chance of winning there.
Neither new poll showed much of a change from its previous Pennsylvania survey either. The aforementioned live-caller survey from Quinnipiac University that came out today found Biden up 7 points, 51 percent to 44 percent, but that was practically identical to what it found in the middle of October. Similarly, PoliticalIQ/RMG Research’s new survey gave Biden a 6-point advantage, 51 percent to 45 percent, the same margin the pollster found in early October.
We’re watching Pennsylvania especially closely, as any movement here matters a lot in our forecast, as it’s the state currently most likely to decide the Electoral College. And the margin as it currently stands leaves room for Trump to win on Nov. 3 — or after, as it might take a bit to get the final result there.
Like Pennsylvania, North Carolina is another state where the forecast has hardly budged in the past few days. Biden now has a 65 in 100 shot of carrying the state, but it’s been around that mark since last weekend.
In fact, two new polls released today showed essentially no movement compared to each of the pollsters’ last surveys in North Carolina. The New York Times Upshot/Siena College found Biden ahead by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent, pretty similar to the 46 percent to 42 percent edge they gave him in mid-October, but now with fewer undecided voters. Meanwhile, UMass Lowell found the two candidates knotted at 48 percent apiece, which was pretty much the same as a late September poll that found them tied at 47 percent.
On the whole, the topline numbers in this race haven’t changed much. On the one hand, that’s good news for Biden as he remains a favorite to win the presidency. That is, if the polls mostly hold where they are, it will take a sizable polling error for Trump to win. However, Biden’s advantage would be more concrete were his position in Pennsylvania to improve in the closing days of the campaign. So we’ll just have to see if anything shifts in the final days that changes the trajectory of the race.
Could any surprises still affect the race for president?


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-29--Politics Podcast: All The Stuff We Should Have Talked More About In 2020

Only five days remain until Election Day , and Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning , @ @ @ @ @ In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses the state of @ @ @ @ @ which important stories have been under-covered by the press during the 2020 campaign .
You @ @ @ @ @ by clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player above or by downloading @ @ @ @ @ ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , @ @ @ @ @ The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the @ @ @ @ @ rating and review on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ @ @ @ @ @ ” ?
Get in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments .

Politics Podcast: All The Stuff We Should Have Talked More About In 2020
Only five days remain until Election Day, and Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the state of the race and also considers which important stories have been under-covered by the press during the 2020 campaign.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-29--QAnon Isn’t Going To Take Over Congress In 2020. But It’s Found A Home In The GOP.

Marjorie Taylor Greene has not been shy about her support for QAnon — a conspiracy theory that alleges the existence of a widespread child sex trafficking ring run by a cabal of satanic and cannibalistic elites , whom only President Trump can stop .
She has tweeted “ # GreatAwakening ” to Alex Jones , called Q “ a patriot ” and has even hosted videos detailing the evidence she believes proves Q is “ the real deal.
” When she won the Republican nomination for Georgia ’ s 14th District , academics called her win a “ bellwether ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and media outlets wondered if Greene ’ s win signified a wider trend .
Was there about to be a Qaucus in Congress ?
Will millions of dollars on TV ads make a difference in the race for the presidency ?
Not likely .
Greene , who has since tried to distance herself from the conspiracy theory , may very well be the only candidate with ties to QAnon who actually wins her race , according to FiveThirtyEight ’ s election forecast .
But the dozens of Republicans who have voiced support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ show how GOP leadership has allowed QAnon to become a part of the party , even if the GOP hasn ’ t explicitly embraced it .
Fringe candidates with unusual beliefs can be found in every election , of course , but this cohort of QAnon followers on the ballot is somewhat unique .
“ People with crazy beliefs run for Congress all the time , it ’ s just a question of whether there ’ s a unifying force among candidates of their crazy beliefs , ” said Kyle Kondik , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics .
There ’ s no master list of QAnon-linked candidates , but some organizations and news outlets have compiled running tallies .
Media Matters , a liberal media watchdog group , has put together a list of 31 candidates with active campaigns for Congress whom it links to QAnon , but a “ link ” is a term with broad interpretation .
Some candidates , like Derrick Grayson , a Republican running in Georgia ’ s U.S. Senate special election , have simply tweeted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Jo Rae Perkins , the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Oregon , have been more explicit about their QAnon beliefs .
“ Some of those links are somewhat tenuous , ” said Joseph Uscinski , a political scientist at the University of Miami who studies conspiracy theories .
“ I would prefer my candidates to have no connections or links at all to QAnon , but that phrase ‘ linked to QAnon ’ is often taken to mean that they ’ re true believers .
Some of them are true believers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Few of the candidates Media Matters identified have any chance of winning their races .
Of the 31 candidates identified by Media Matters , 26 of them have measurable odds according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast .
Aside from Greene , only two other candidates of the 26 have better than a 1 in 100 chance of taking their races ( and one of those two , Erin Cruz , who ’ s running in California ’ s 36th district , has just a 3 in 100 shot ) , according to our model @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who has withdrawn from the race but remains on the ballot .
And another Republican candidate , gun rights activist Lauren Boebert , who ’ s running in Colorado ’ s third district , is currently slightly favored to win her race ( she has a 59 in 100 shot of winning the seat ) .
She previously appeared on two different YouTube shows hosted by QAnon believers , and said she was “ very familiar ” with Q and that she “ hoped it is real.
” More recently , Boebert has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does not believe in conspiracy theories .
There ’ s one other Republican candidate not on Media Matters ’ list who has a good shot .
Burgess Owens , who is running in Utah ’ s 4th District , has appeared on a pro-QAnon podcast and YouTube channel and has said he thinks the conspiracy theory is worth taking a look at , though he also stated that accusations of him supporting QAnon are “ silly.
” FiveThirtyEight ’ s forecast gives Owens a 42 in 100 chance of winning the seat .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ who have at some point expressed support for QAnon and have won nominations around the country .
Owens makes 20 .
All all of them are Republican nominees .
For its part , the GOP has done little to distance itself from its QAnon-adjacent candidates , instead rejecting the fact that multiple Republican candidates for Congress have links to the group .
Ronna McDaniel , the chair of the Republican National Committee , told ABC News it ’ s “ a fringe group .
It ’ s not part of our party.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ repeatedly asked about whether he denounces QAnon , and he consistently demurs , claiming ignorance of the movement and saying its followers “ fight ” against pedophilia and are people who “ love our country.
” “ Trump has a track record for a decade where all he does is traffic in conspiracy theories , ” Uscinski said .
“ Trump built a coalition on conspiracy theories .
He started 10 years ago with birtherism , he pushed anti-vaxx ideas .
This is his modus operandi.
” Regardless of how many explicit allies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a conspiratorial mindset has already taken root in the GOP .
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast : How the electorate will be different in 2020 UPDATE ( October 29 , 2020 , 5:33 p.m. ) : This article was updated to include the candidacy of Burgess Owens , who is not on Media Matters ’ list .

QAnon Isn’t Going To Take Over Congress In 2020. But It’s Found A Home In The GOP.
Before running for office, Marjorie Taylor Greene was not shy about her support for QAnon — a conspiracy theory that alleges the existence of a widespread child sex trafficking ring run by a cabal of satanic and cannibalistic elites, whom only President Trump can stop. She tweeted “#GreatAwakening” to Alex Jones, called Q “a patriot” and even hosted videos detailing the evidence she believes proves Q is “the real deal.” When she won the Republican nomination for Georgia’s 14th District, academics called her win a “bellwether” for the movement and for American politics, and media outlets wondered if Greene’s win signified a wider trend. Was there about to be a Qaucus in Congress?
Will millions of dollars on TV ads make a difference in the race for the presidency?
Not likely. Greene, who has since tried to distance herself from the conspiracy theory, may very well be the only candidate with ties to QAnon who actually wins her race, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. But the dozens of Republicans who have voiced support for at least some elements of QAnon show how GOP leadership has allowed QAnon to become a part of the party, even if the GOP hasn’t explicitly embraced it.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
Fringe candidates with unusual beliefs can be found in every election, of course, but this cohort of QAnon followers on the ballot is somewhat unique.
“People with crazy beliefs run for Congress all the time, it’s just a question of whether there’s a unifying force among candidates of their crazy beliefs,” said Kyle Kondik, the managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
There’s no master list of QAnon-linked candidates, but some organizations and news outlets have compiled running tallies. Media Matters, a liberal media watchdog group, has put together a list of 31 candidates with active campaigns for Congress whom it links to QAnon, but a “link” is a term with broad interpretation. Some candidates, like Derrick Grayson, a Republican running in Georgia’s U.S. Senate special election, have simply tweeted the #WWG1WGA hashtag. Others, like Jo Rae Perkins, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Oregon, have been more explicit about their QAnon beliefs.
“Some of those links are somewhat tenuous,” said Joseph Uscinski, a political scientist at the University of Miami who studies conspiracy theories. “I would prefer my candidates to have no connections or links at all to QAnon, but that phrase ‘linked to QAnon’ is often taken to mean that they’re true believers. Some of them are true believers, but not all of them.”
Few of the candidates Media Matters identified have any chance of winning their races. Of the 31 candidates identified by Media Matters, 26 of them have measurable odds according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. Aside from Greene, only two other candidates of the 26 have better than a 1 in 100 chance of taking their races (and one of those two, Erin Cruz, who’s running in California’s 36th district, has just a 3 in 100 shot), according to our model. Greene is running against a Democrat who has withdrawn from the race but remains on the ballot. And another Republican candidate, gun rights activist Lauren Boebert, who’s running in Colorado’s third district, is currently slightly favored to win her race (she has a 59 in 100 shot of winning the seat). She previously appeared on two different YouTube shows hosted by QAnon believers, and said she was “very familiar” with Q and that she “hoped it is real.” More recently, Boebert has said she does not follow QAnon and does not believe in conspiracy theories.
There’s one other Republican candidate not on Media Matters’ list who has a good shot. Burgess Owens, who is running in Utah’s 4th District, has appeared on a pro-QAnon podcast and YouTube channel and has said he thinks the conspiracy theory is worth taking a look at, though he also stated that accusations of him supporting QAnon are “silly.” FiveThirtyEight’s forecast gives Owens a 42 in 100 chance of winning the seat.
Media Matters’ list shows 19 candidates who have at some point expressed support for QAnon and have won nominations around the country. Owens makes 20. All all of them are Republican nominees. For its part, the GOP has done little to distance itself from its QAnon-adjacent candidates, instead rejecting the fact that multiple Republican candidates for Congress have links to the group. Ronna McDaniel, the chair of the Republican National Committee, told ABC News it’s “a fringe group. It’s not part of our party.”
President Trump, meanwhile, has been repeatedly asked about whether he denounces QAnon, and he consistently demurs, claiming ignorance of the movement and saying its followers “fight” against pedophilia and are people who “love our country.”
“Trump has a track record for a decade where all he does is traffic in conspiracy theories,” Uscinski said. “Trump built a coalition on conspiracy theories. He started 10 years ago with birtherism, he pushed anti-vaxx ideas. This is his modus operandi.” Regardless of how many explicit allies QAnon has in Congress next term, a conspiratorial mindset has already taken root in the GOP.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How the electorate will be different in 2020
UPDATE (October 29, 2020, 5:33 p.m.): This article was updated to include the candidacy of Burgess Owens, who is not on Media Matters’ list.
CLARIFICATION (Oct. 30, 2020: 11:52 a.m.): This article has been updated to make clear that Greene’s pro-QAnon comments were made before she ran for office.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-29--Democrats And Republicans Are Spending Millions On TV Advertising. Will It Even Make A Difference?

The Trump and Biden campaigns are both spending hundreds of millions of dollars nationally on broadcast TV advertisements .
FiveThirtyEight @ @ @ @ @ at which states are seeing the biggest ad buys .

Democrats And Republicans Are Spending Millions On TV Advertising. Will It Even Make A Difference?
The Trump and Biden campaigns are both spending hundreds of millions of dollars nationally on broadcast TV advertisements. FiveThirtyEight elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich looks at which states are seeing the biggest ad buys.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-29--Trump Is Losing Ground With Some — But Not All — White Christians

For the past few months , Joe Biden has been courting a key segment of President Trump ’ s base : conservative white Christians .
That ’ s a bold move , to say the least — because they made up a huge share of the Republican coalition in 2016 .
So is Biden ’ s plan working ?
Are white Christians , including white evangelical Protestants , who have been among Trump ’ s most loyal supporters , actually abandoning the president for Biden ?
The answer depends on which white Christians you ’ re looking at .
FiveThirtyEight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be different in 2020 Despite Biden ’ s claims that he can appeal to white evangelical Protestants , there really aren ’ t any signs that Trump is losing support among this group .
But Trump may have reason to worry about his level of support among white Catholics .
Politicians and the media typically pay less attention to these voters during election season , but white Catholics are especially important to watch this year because they ’ re a sizable group — and they ’ re concentrated in Rust Belt swing states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump won white Catholics handily in 2016 , but there are signs that his hold on this group is slipping .
That ’ s doubly worrisome for the president because white Christians are declining as a share of the population overall .
And if overall turnout is high and he loses some support from white Catholics without making up the difference among other groups , Trump could be in trouble — even if he overwhelmingly wins white evangelicals again .
Earlier this month , Biden announced he had the support of a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t seem to be trickling down to white evangelical voters , who are still firmly in Trump ’ s camp .
According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted in late September and early October , 78 percent of white evangelical Protestant voters support Trump , while only 17 percent support Biden , which is right in line with Trump ’ s 2016 support .
It ’ s possible that Trump has gained even more support among white evangelicals this cycle .
Polling by PRRI , a nonpartisan public-opinion research organization @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump since he was a presidential candidate and found that it ’ s been consistently much higher than among Americans as a whole .
Trump ’ s approval rating among white evangelicals did dip very slightly in August , but his numbers rebounded in September as the campaign moved into gear .
And according to PRRI ’ s American Values Survey , conducted in September , 79 percent of white evangelical likely voters are supporting Trump — which is actually 9 percentage points higher than his support among this group at a comparable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ The conservative thing to say is that they are as strongly behind the president as they were in 2016 , ” said Robert P. Jones , PRRI ’ s founder and CEO .
“ But we might even have evidence that they ’ re even more strongly behind Trump than they were four years ago.
” One possible reason for this consistent support , even amid all the turmoil of 2020 , is that white evangelical Protestants just don ’ t see COVID-19 — and Trump ’ s handling of the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vote .
According to PRRI , every major religious group ranked COVID-19 as one of their top three critical issues — except for white evangelical Protestants .
Instead , abortion was their most critical issue .
They also ranked concerns about crime highly , which has been a key part of Trump ’ s campaign message to voters .
Jones told me he saw white evangelicals ’ lack of concern about COVID-19 as a sign of their loyalty to Trump .
“ Day in and day out , they ’ ve supported this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when he says , ‘ We ’ re rounding a corner [ with COVID-19 ] , ’ they believe him , ” Jones said .
Among white Catholics , another important — but often overlooked — religious demographic group , however , Trump seems to have lost a significant amount of support .
Back in 2016 , he won 60 percent of white Catholics ’ support , according to exit polls .
That ’ s about where Trump was polling back in late July and early August , according to Pew .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fell to 52 percent , while Biden ’ s rose a bit , shrinking Trump ’ s overall margin among white Catholics by 11 points .
And in a recent PRRI survey , it was actually Biden who had majority support ( 54 percent ) among Catholic likely voters , while Trump had only 41 percent support from this group .
Either way , those polls put Trump in a precarious position , given how crucial white Catholic support could be for his reelection prospects .
This group is particularly key because there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rust Belt swing states like Wisconsin , Michigan and Pennsylvania , which Trump won narrowly in 2016 .
And although white Catholics have been moving steadily into the Republican column over the past decade , they ’ re more politically moderate than white evangelicals .
Moreover , said Ryan Burge , a political science professor at Eastern Illinois University who studies religion and politics , white Catholics in that region might be especially drawn to Biden because he is also a white Catholic from a Rust Belt state .
Over the course of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his Catholic faith and identity into his pitch to voters — and Burge thinks it may be working .
“ Biden has a pull , which is that white Catholics can look at him and see someone who reminds them of their father , their uncle , ” he said .
One thing is clear , too — white Catholics were a lot more concerned than white evangelical Protestants about the COVID-19 pandemic , and a lot more critical of Trump ’ s response to the virus .
According to PRRI ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disapproved of Trump ’ s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic , and 65 percent believed the spread of the virus could have been controlled better .
White Catholics were also fairly critical of Trump ’ s handling of the racial justice protests that cropped up this summer in response to the killing of Black people by police : More than half ( 56 percent ) disapproved of Trump ’ s handling of the protests , and nearly half ( 49 percent ) agreed that his decisions and behavior as president have encouraged white @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In other words , Trump ’ s focus on “ law and order ” politics in the campaign may not resonate as much with white Catholics , and their perceptions of how he ’ s mismanaged the pandemic may make it impossible for him to win back many of these voters .
How the media projects the winner of an election | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast Some eroding support among white Catholics might not seem like such a big deal for Trump , but it just compounds a challenge that he — and Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while now : White Christians are shrinking as a share of the total population , and have been for years .
This demographic shift isn ’ t always reflected in the electorate , because white Christians are more apt to turn out to vote than other groups — in 2016 , for instance , white evangelical Protestants made up 26 percent of Americans who cast a ballot , even though they accounted for only 17 percent of the total population , according to PRRI .
But if voter turnout is high this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ The reality is that Trump could win the same high share of white evangelical Protestants that he did back in 2016 and still lose the election , because that slice of the population is in decline , ” Burge said .
A tighter margin among white Catholics just exacerbates the problem , because those are more votes that Trump has to make up elsewhere .
The Republicans ’ reliance on white Christians isn ’ t just a problem for Trump , of course — it ’ s an issue for any GOP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ population is becoming less white and less Christian overall .
But white Christians ’ shrinking numbers could be an especially big issue for Trump this year , if he ’ s also losing some of the white Catholics in the Rust Belt who voted for him four years ago .

For the past few months, Joe Biden has been courting a key segment of President Trump’s base: conservative white Christians. That’s a bold move, to say the least — because they made up a huge share of the Republican coalition in 2016.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
So is Biden’s plan working? Are white Christians, including white evangelical Protestants, who have been among Trump’s most loyal supporters, actually abandoning the president for Biden?
The answer depends on which white Christians you’re looking at.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How the electorate will be different in 2020
Despite Biden’s claims that he can appeal to white evangelical Protestants, there really aren’t any signs that Trump is losing support among this group. But Trump may have reason to worry about his level of support among white Catholics. Politicians and the media typically pay less attention to these voters during election season, but white Catholics are especially important to watch this year because they’re a sizable group — and they’re concentrated in Rust Belt swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Trump won white Catholics handily in 2016, but there are signs that his hold on this group is slipping. That’s doubly worrisome for the president because white Christians are declining as a share of the population overall. And if overall turnout is high and he loses some support from white Catholics without making up the difference among other groups, Trump could be in trouble — even if he overwhelmingly wins white evangelicals again.
Trump’s white evangelical support is still solid
Earlier this month, Biden announced he had the support of a new group of evangelical leaders, but this doesn’t seem to be trickling down to white evangelical voters, who are still firmly in Trump’s camp. According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted in late September and early October, 78 percent of white evangelical Protestant voters support Trump, while only 17 percent support Biden, which is right in line with Trump’s 2016 support.
White Christians are more supportive of Trump Share of registered voters who say they support Trump or Biden, by religious affiliation and race/ethnicity Trump Biden Margin White evangelical Protestant 78% 17% +61 White non-evangelical Protestant 53 43 +10 Black Protestant 9 90 +81 White non-Hispanic Catholic 52 44 +8 Hispanic Catholic 26 67 +41 Jewish 27 70 +43 NET Unaffiliated 22 71 +49 Atheist 7 88 +81 Agnostic 15 79 +64 Nothing in particular 31 62 +31 From a survey of 10,543 registered voters conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 5. Both Trump’s and Biden’s support numbers include respondents who lean toward that candidate. Source: Pew Research Center
It’s possible that Trump has gained even more support among white evangelicals this cycle. Polling by PRRI, a nonpartisan public-opinion research organization, has tracked white evangelical support for Trump since he was a presidential candidate and found that it’s been consistently much higher than among Americans as a whole. Trump’s approval rating among white evangelicals did dip very slightly in August, but his numbers rebounded in September as the campaign moved into gear. And according to PRRI’s American Values Survey, conducted in September, 79 percent of white evangelical likely voters are supporting Trump — which is actually 9 percentage points higher than his support among this group at a comparable point in the 2016 election cycle. “The conservative thing to say is that they are as strongly behind the president as they were in 2016,” said Robert P. Jones, PRRI’s founder and CEO. “But we might even have evidence that they’re even more strongly behind Trump than they were four years ago.”
One possible reason for this consistent support, even amid all the turmoil of 2020, is that white evangelical Protestants just don’t see COVID-19 — and Trump’s handling of the pandemic — as a big issue for their vote. According to PRRI, every major religious group ranked COVID-19 as one of their top three critical issues — except for white evangelical Protestants. Instead, abortion was their most critical issue. They also ranked concerns about crime highly, which has been a key part of Trump’s campaign message to voters. Jones told me he saw white evangelicals’ lack of concern about COVID-19 as a sign of their loyalty to Trump.
“Day in and day out, they’ve supported this president at extraordinarily high levels, so when he says, ‘We’re rounding a corner [with COVID-19],’ they believe him,” Jones said.
Trump’s white Catholic support has slipped
Among white Catholics, another important — but often overlooked — religious demographic group, however, Trump seems to have lost a significant amount of support. Back in 2016, he won 60 percent of white Catholics’ support, according to exit polls. That’s about where Trump was polling back in late July and early August, according to Pew. But between August and October, his support fell to 52 percent, while Biden’s rose a bit, shrinking Trump’s overall margin among white Catholics by 11 points. And in a recent PRRI survey, it was actually Biden who had majority support (54 percent) among Catholic likely voters, while Trump had only 41 percent support from this group.
Either way, those polls put Trump in a precarious position, given how crucial white Catholic support could be for his reelection prospects. This group is particularly key because there are a lot of white Catholics in Rust Belt swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which Trump won narrowly in 2016. And although white Catholics have been moving steadily into the Republican column over the past decade, they’re more politically moderate than white evangelicals.
Moreover, said Ryan Burge, a political science professor at Eastern Illinois University who studies religion and politics, white Catholics in that region might be especially drawn to Biden because he is also a white Catholic from a Rust Belt state. Over the course of the campaign, Biden has actively woven his Catholic faith and identity into his pitch to voters — and Burge thinks it may be working. “Biden has a pull, which is that white Catholics can look at him and see someone who reminds them of their father, their uncle,” he said.
One thing is clear, too — white Catholics were a lot more concerned than white evangelical Protestants about the COVID-19 pandemic, and a lot more critical of Trump’s response to the virus. According to PRRI’s polling, 60 percent of white Catholics disapproved of Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and 65 percent believed the spread of the virus could have been controlled better. White Catholics were also fairly critical of Trump’s handling of the racial justice protests that cropped up this summer in response to the killing of Black people by police: More than half (56 percent) disapproved of Trump’s handling of the protests, and nearly half (49 percent) agreed that his decisions and behavior as president have encouraged white supremacist groups to be more active. In other words, Trump’s focus on “law and order” politics in the campaign may not resonate as much with white Catholics, and their perceptions of how he’s mismanaged the pandemic may make it impossible for him to win back many of these voters.
How the media projects the winner of an election | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Some eroding support among white Catholics might not seem like such a big deal for Trump, but it just compounds a challenge that he — and Republicans more broadly — has faced for a while now: White Christians are shrinking as a share of the total population, and have been for years. This demographic shift isn’t always reflected in the electorate, because white Christians are more apt to turn out to vote than other groups — in 2016, for instance, white evangelical Protestants made up 26 percent of Americans who cast a ballot, even though they accounted for only 17 percent of the total population, according to PRRI.
But if voter turnout is high this year, their impact could be diluted. “The reality is that Trump could win the same high share of white evangelical Protestants that he did back in 2016 and still lose the election, because that slice of the population is in decline,” Burge said. A tighter margin among white Catholics just exacerbates the problem, because those are more votes that Trump has to make up elsewhere.
The Republicans’ reliance on white Christians isn’t just a problem for Trump, of course — it’s an issue for any GOP candidate in a country where the voting population is becoming less white and less Christian overall. But white Christians’ shrinking numbers could be an especially big issue for Trump this year, if he’s also losing some of the white Catholics in the Rust Belt who voted for him four years ago.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-29--How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic

How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic

On this week ’ s episode of PODCAST-19 , Anna Rothschild talks to FiveThirtyEight ’ s Nathaniel Rakich and Maggie @ @ @ @ @ trying to make it safe to vote in person , and what you should keep @ @ @ @ @ to the polls .
Don ’ t want to miss an episode of PODCAST-19 , @ @ @ @ @ at what we know — and what we know we don ’ t know — @ @ @ @ @ your favorite podcasting app .
For example , here ’ s where to do it @ @ @ @ @ .

On this week’s episode of PODCAST-19, Anna Rothschild talks to FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich and Maggie Koerth about how states are trying to make it safe to vote in person, and what you should keep in mind as you go to the polls.
Don’t want to miss an episode of PODCAST-19, FiveThirtyEight’s weekly look at what we know — and what we know we don’t know — about COVID-19? Subscribe on your favorite podcasting app. For example, here’s where to do it on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-30--Americans Say They’re Fired Up To Vote — Especially Democrats

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
American voters are fired up to cast their ballots .
And many already have , in record numbers .
According to the latest Gallup poll , released this morning , 69 percent of registered voters say that they are more enthusiastic to vote this year compared to previous elections .
That is a stark contrast to the 2016 election , when enthusiasm to vote was relatively low .
According to Gallup , which has asked voters about how enthusiastic they are to vote for at least the last two decades , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they were more enthusiastic to vote in 2016 than they had been in previous elections .
And regardless of who Americans plan to vote for , other polls also show that they think this election is important .
Ninety-four percent of registered voters said in a YouGov/The Economist poll conducted earlier this week that voting for president this year is “ very important.
” Members of both parties seem more enthusiastic to vote , too .
According to the party crosstabs of the Gallup poll , the share of voters who said that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were more excited than usual to vote is about 15 percentage points higher among Republicans and about 27 points higher among Democrats than it was four years ago .
Although , as you can see in the chart below , Democrats have an advantage in terms of voter enthusiasm this year .
Democratic enthusiasm this year is higher relative to past presidential elections .
The share of Democrats who say they ’ re more enthusiastic to vote this year is about 9 percentage points higher than the share of Republicans who say the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ large as the 14-point enthusiasm gap we saw in 2008 , when Barack Obama was first elected president , but that ’ s not because Democrats aren ’ t just as enthusiastic .
The difference is that Republicans are a bit more enthusiastic in 2020 than they were in 2008 .
But this enthusiasm doesn ’ t necessarily mean voters are excited about the candidates .
There ’ s long been this idea that Biden ’ s backers just aren ’ t as enthusiastic as Trump ’ s , and when YouGov asked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidate , they did find that fewer of Biden ’ s supporters ( 48 percent ) said they were enthusiastic about him , while far more of Trump ’ s supporters ( 77 percent ) said they were enthusiastic about him .
However , 42 percent of Biden ’ s supporters said that they were “ satisfied but not enthusiastic ” about voting for him , while only 18 percent of Trump ’ s supporters said the same .
As we ’ ve written before , that “ enthusiasm ” gap might not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ One source of voter enthusiasm is hatred of the other political party .
And on that metric , Biden has the upper hand .
While Trump may enjoy more enthusiastic support from his base , Biden ’ s voters are charged up to vote against Trump .
In that YouGov poll , for example , 52 percent of Biden voters said they were mostly casting a ballot against Trump rather than for Biden , while only 17 percent of Trump ’ s supporters said they were casting a vote primarily against Biden .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ who will be sitting behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office come January , it doesn ’ t much matter how enthusiastic someone was to vote , only that they did .
• Americans are split on whether children should be allowed to trick-or-treat on Halloween this year and whether they will hand out candy , given the coronavirus pandemic .
According to a YouGov poll , 30 percent of Americans say they plan to hand out treats to trick-or-treaters , while 26 percent say they usually do but won ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who I can only surmise are either unable to give out treats or just extremely grumpy , said they never give out treats .
Nevertheless , a majority ( 69 percent ) seem to agree that children who trick-or-treat should be required to wear face masks .
• For those of you fed up with the horse race , a poll from Echelon Insights reimagined what the 2020 election might look like if the U.S. were a multi-party democracy .
Respondents were read descriptions of five hypothetical political parties , without the name @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And among these hypothetical parties , the Labor and Conservative Parties collectively led with 26 and 25 percent of the vote respectively , followed by the Nationalist Party , which got 16 percent , and then Acela and Green Parties , which got 11 percent each .
The hypothetical Green Party , which the pollster said would advocate for socialist policies and would be “ the political home of the Squad , ” got support from 45 percent of Gen Z voters ( those born after 1997 ) .
• Speaking of young @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 18- to 29-year-olds from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics found that the level of enthusiasm to vote among that demographic was about 16 percentage points higher than it was in 2016 .
In fact , this level of enthusiasm mirrored what Harvard found in 2008 .
Respondents were also asked about whether their opportunities to succeed were better than their parents ’ generation , and responses were split , with 36 percent saying they were better , 34 percent saying they were worse , and 29 percent saying their opportunities were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Twenty percent of American adults say that ghosts definitely exist , according to a YouGov poll conducted last week .
About a quarter say they probably exist , 39 percent say they probably or definitely do not exist , and 16 percent said they don ’ t know .
• Seventy percent of Americans now support same-sex marriage while only 28 percent oppose it , according to a poll conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute .
That ’ s the highest level of support the institute has ever recorded for same-sex marriage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Eurasian country ( not the U.S. state ) , will vote Saturday to elect a new parliament .
October polls from Edison Research , Ipsos and European Georgia show the ruling Georgian Dream party , which won control of parliament decisively in 2016 , ahead in the polls .
These polls give the party anywhere from 25 to 36 percent of the vote and have the United National Movement party — led by former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili , who is campaigning for the election remotely from self-exile in Ukraine — in second @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the vote .
However , the polls also show a high number of undecided voters , and according to Georgian electoral rules , if a party doesn ’ t receive at least 40 percent of the vote , it may not hold a majority of seats in parliament and would have to rule as part of a coalition .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 44.0 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president , while 52.9 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last week , 42.6 percent approved and 53.6 percent disapproved ( for a net approval rating of -11.0 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 43.7 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.5 percent , for a net approval rating of -8.8 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 8.1 percentage points ( 49.8 percent to 41.7 percent ) .
A week ago , Democrats led Republicans by 7.1 points ( 49.4 percent to 42.3 percent ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters preferred Democrats by 6.1 points ( 48.8 percent to 42.7 percent ) .
Check out all the polls we ’ ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections .

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
American voters are fired up to cast their ballots. And many already have, in record numbers.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
According to the latest Gallup poll, released this morning, 69 percent of registered voters say that they are more enthusiastic to vote this year compared to previous elections. That is a stark contrast to the 2016 election, when enthusiasm to vote was relatively low. According to Gallup, which has asked voters about how enthusiastic they are to vote for at least the last two decades, only about half of registered voters said they were more enthusiastic to vote in 2016 than they had been in previous elections.
And regardless of who Americans plan to vote for, other polls also show that they think this election is important. Ninety-four percent of registered voters said in a YouGov/The Economist poll conducted earlier this week that voting for president this year is “very important.”
Members of both parties seem more enthusiastic to vote, too. According to the party crosstabs of the Gallup poll, the share of voters who said that, compared to previous elections, they were more excited than usual to vote is about 13 percentage points higher among Republicans and about 25 points higher among Democrats than it was four years ago. Although, as you can see in the chart below, Democrats have an advantage in terms of voter enthusiasm this year.
Democratic enthusiasm this year is higher relative to past presidential elections. The share of Democrats who say they’re more enthusiastic to vote this year is about 9 percentage points higher than the share of Republicans who say the same. That’s not as large as the 15-point enthusiasm gap we saw in 2008, when Barack Obama was first elected president, but that’s not because Democrats aren’t just as enthusiastic. The difference is that Republicans are a bit more enthusiastic in 2020 than they were in 2008.
What election stories need to get more coverage | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
But this enthusiasm doesn’t necessarily mean voters are excited about the candidates. There’s long been this idea that Biden’s backers just aren’t as enthusiastic as Trump’s, and when YouGov asked voters if they were enthusiastic about each candidate, they did find that fewer of Biden’s supporters (48 percent) said they were enthusiastic about him, while far more of Trump’s supporters (77 percent) said they were enthusiastic about him. However, 42 percent of Biden’s supporters said that they were “satisfied but not enthusiastic” about voting for him, while only 18 percent of Trump’s supporters said the same.
As we’ve written before, that “enthusiasm” gap might not matter all that much for Biden. One source of voter enthusiasm is hatred of the other political party. And on that metric, Biden has the upper hand. While Trump may enjoy more enthusiastic support from his base, Biden’s voters are charged up to vote against Trump. In that YouGov poll, for example, 52 percent of Biden voters said they were mostly casting a ballot against Trump rather than for Biden, while only 17 percent of Trump’s supporters said they were casting a vote primarily against Biden.
That said, when it comes to who will be sitting behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office come January, it doesn’t much matter how enthusiastic someone was to vote, only that they did.
Other polling bites
Americans are split on whether children should be allowed to trick-or-treat on Halloween this year and whether they will hand out candy, given the coronavirus pandemic. According to a YouGov poll, 30 percent of Americans say they plan to hand out treats to trick-or-treaters, while 26 percent say they usually do but won’t this year. Another 35 percent, who I can only surmise are either unable to give out treats or just extremely grumpy, said they never give out treats. Nevertheless, a majority (69 percent) seem to agree that children who trick-or-treat should be required to wear face masks.
For those of you fed up with the horse race, a poll from Echelon Insights reimagined what the 2020 election might look like if the U.S. were a multi-party democracy. Respondents were read descriptions of five hypothetical political parties, without the name of the party or its leader. And among these hypothetical parties, the Labor and Conservative Parties collectively led with 26 and 25 percent of the vote respectively, followed by the Nationalist Party, which got 16 percent, and then Acela and Green Parties, which got 11 percent each. The hypothetical Green Party, which the pollster said would advocate for socialist policies and would be “the political home of the Squad,” got support from 45 percent of Gen Z voters (those born after 1997).
Speaking of young people, a survey of about 2,000 18- to 29-year-olds from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics found that the level of enthusiasm to vote among that demographic was about 16 percentage points higher than it was in 2016. In fact, this level of enthusiasm mirrored what Harvard found in 2008. Respondents were also asked about whether their opportunities to succeed were better than their parents’ generation, and responses were split, with 36 percent saying they were better, 34 percent saying they were worse, and 29 percent saying their opportunities were about the same.
BOO! Twenty percent of American adults say that ghosts definitely exist, according to a YouGov poll conducted last week. About a quarter say they probably exist, 39 percent say they probably or definitely do not exist, and 16 percent said they don’t know.
Seventy percent of Americans now support same-sex marriage while only 28 percent oppose it, according to a poll conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute. That’s the highest level of support the institute has ever recorded for same-sex marriage.
Citizens in Georgia, the Eurasian country (not the U.S. state), will vote Saturday to elect a new parliament. October polls from Edison Research, Ipsos and European Georgia show the ruling Georgian Dream party, which won control of parliament decisively in 2016, ahead in the polls. These polls give the party anywhere from 25 to 36 percent of the vote and have the United National Movement party — led by former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili, who is campaigning for the election remotely from self-exile in Ukraine — in second place with about 17 to 18 percent of the vote. However, the polls also show a high number of undecided voters, and according to Georgian electoral rules, if a party doesn’t receive at least 40 percent of the vote, it may not hold a majority of seats in parliament and would have to rule as part of a coalition.
Fewer undecided voters is good news for Biden in the Midwest| FiveThirtyEight
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 44.0 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.9 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -8.9 points). At this time last week, 42.6 percent approved and 53.6 percent disapproved (for a net approval rating of -11.0 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 43.7 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.5 percent, for a net approval rating of -8.8 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 8.1 percentage points (49.8 percent to 41.7 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7.1 points (49.4 percent to 42.3 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 6.1 points (48.8 percent to 42.7 percent).
Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.
CORRECTION (Nov. 2, 2020, 7:10 p.m.): This article’s analysis of voter enthusiasm by party was based on a mixed sample of adults and registered voters. We have updated it so that the sample — registered voters — is consistent across years. In addition, the chart incorrectly described the sample as voters when it was actually a mix of voters and adults. The chart has also been updated.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-30--Why Younger Americans Don’t Vote More Often (*No, It’s Not Apathy)

We often hear how younger people are apathetic toward politics or politically disengaged .
And while it ’ s true that they tend to vote at lower rates than older Americans , apathy is just one piece of the puzzle for young people — and maybe not even the most important piece .
According to our new survey with Ipsos of more than 8,000 Americans , people between 18 and 34 are less likely to have faith in our political system .
But when we asked why they hadn ’ t voted in the past , we found that younger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ older people to say they didn ’ t vote because they think the system is too broken to be fixed by voting , or because all the candidates are the same , or because they don ’ t believe in voting .
That cynicism doesn ’ t seem to be motivating them to sit on the sidelines during elections .
Instead , younger people are much more likely than older people to report that they or members of their household have experienced barriers to voting , which suggests that they may genuinely find @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And that problem could be compounded this year given the extraordinary challenges of voting during a pandemic .
In our survey , almost one-quarter ( 22 percent ) of young people said that when they didn ’ t end up casting a ballot , they had actually wanted to but couldn ’ t .
As the chart below shows , young people are more likely to report that they or members of their household have experienced hurdles to voting — even though most have had far fewer elections to vote in .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ much more likely to say they couldn ’ t get off work to vote , didn ’ t receive their ballot in time , missed the registration deadline or had trouble finding or accessing their polling place .
Take Jordan B. , 23 , a nursing student living in Savannah , Georgia .
Due to a mixup when she renewed her driver ’ s license , Jordan ’ s voter registration reverted to her home county , which is more than 200 miles away .
“ I ’ ll probably just drive four @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
Jordan hasn ’ t had problems voting in the past but said some of her friends have run into issues with mail-in ballots this year .
Despite the inconvenience of not being able to cast her ballot in Savannah this year , though , she said she ’ s going to make voting a priority , in part because she ’ s unhappy with how President Trump has handled the COVID-19 pandemic .
Like many other Americans , younger voters feel a sense of urgency around this election .
Admittedly , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ older voters to say the outcome of the 2020 election really matters ( 75 percent compared with 91 percent of people 65 or over ) .
But a high share ( 78 percent ) of young people told us they ’ re planning to vote this year , although of course , the number who actually cast a ballot will almost certainly be lower .
That could be part of the reason why so many young people are turning out to vote early — and if turnout remains high among this group , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joe Biden and Democratic candidates in general .
In our poll , 53 percent of adults under 35 said they planned to support Biden , while only 24 percent said they planned to support Trump .
( The rest were unsure . )
In general , young people tend to be more Democratic-leaning than older people : Our survey found that 62 percent of adults under 35 identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party .
But young people aren ’ t necessarily that passionate about supporting Biden .
He struggled with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ several of our survey respondents told us in follow-up interviews that they ’ re still lukewarm about him .
Kenneth Brant , 28 , who lives in Florida and voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders in the primary , was initially unhappy when Biden won the nomination but says he ’ s more enthusiastic about him now .
Still , however , he feels pretty “ resigned ” about his vote .
Brant wasn ’ t the only young voter we spoke with who was dissatisfied with his options , or politics more generally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he finds politics very frustrating , because people on opposite sides of the aisle won ’ t admit that anything their opponents have done is good .
Briana Thompson , 26 , feels disappointed with her voting choices .
She told us that since she lives in South Carolina , a red state , she doesn ’ t expect her vote to matter , which is why she ’ s decided to vote for the Green Party candidate instead of Biden .
Thompson feels that sends a stronger message than simply voting for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ [ election ] I am increasingly more jaded , ” she said .
Other voters , like Brant , who still plans to vote for one of the two major candidates , also approached the process itself with a heavy layer of cynicism .
Even though he lives in a swing state , Brant told us he still doesn ’ t think it will make a difference .
“ Honestly , Florida has never had free and fair elections , ” he said .
These kinds of attitudes were common among the young @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s one reason why — particularly considering the high barriers they typically face — young voter turnout might continue to ebb and flow , even if we see record-high turnout this year .
And many young people will likely continue to feel disenchanted with politics , even if they keep casting a ballot .
We asked Brant whether he ’ ll keep voting in 2022 and 2024 , even if Trump wins , and he responded with the verbal equivalent of a shrug .
“ Yeah , sure , my vote won ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ll cast it to say that I cast it .
”

Why don’t more young people vote?
We often hear how younger people are apathetic toward politics or politically disengaged. And while it’s true that they tend to vote at lower rates than older Americans, apathy is just one piece of the puzzle for young people — and maybe not even the most important piece.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
According to our new survey with Ipsos of more than 8,000 Americans, people between 18 and 34 are less likely to have faith in our political system. But when we asked why they hadn’t voted in the past, we found that younger people weren’t more likely than older people to say they didn’t vote because they think the system is too broken to be fixed by voting, or because all the candidates are the same, or because they don’t believe in voting.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How the electorate will be different in 2020
That cynicism doesn’t seem to be motivating them to sit on the sidelines during elections. Instead, younger people are much more likely than older people to report that they or members of their household have experienced barriers to voting, which suggests that they may genuinely find it more difficult to cast a ballot. And that problem could be compounded this year given the extraordinary challenges of voting during a pandemic.
In our survey, almost one-quarter (22 percent) of young people said that when they didn’t end up casting a ballot, they had actually wanted to but couldn’t. As the chart below shows, young people are more likely to report that they or members of their household have experienced hurdles to voting — even though most have had far fewer elections to vote in. Young people, for instance, are much more likely to say they couldn’t get off work to vote, didn’t receive their ballot in time, missed the registration deadline or had trouble finding or accessing their polling place.
Take Jordan B., 23, a nursing student living in Savannah, Georgia. Due to a mixup when she renewed her driver’s license, Jordan’s voter registration reverted to her home county, which is more than 200 miles away. “I’ll probably just drive four hours to go vote,” she said. Jordan hasn’t had problems voting in the past but said some of her friends have run into issues with mail-in ballots this year. Despite the inconvenience of not being able to cast her ballot in Savannah this year, though, she said she’s going to make voting a priority, in part because she’s unhappy with how President Trump has handled the COVID-19 pandemic.
Like many other Americans, younger voters feel a sense of urgency around this election. Admittedly, they’re slightly less likely than older voters to say the outcome of the 2020 election really matters (75 percent compared with 91 percent of people 65 or over). But a high share (78 percent) of young people told us they’re planning to vote this year, although of course, the number who actually cast a ballot will almost certainly be lower.
That could be part of the reason why so many young people are turning out to vote early — and if turnout remains high among this group, that could be very good news for Joe Biden and Democratic candidates in general. In our poll, 53 percent of adults under 35 said they planned to support Biden, while only 24 percent said they planned to support Trump. (The rest were unsure.) In general, young people tend to be more Democratic-leaning than older people: Our survey found that 62 percent of adults under 35 identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party.
Will millions of dollars on TV ads make a difference in the race for the presidency?
But young people aren’t necessarily that passionate about supporting Biden. He struggled with young voters in the primary, and several of our survey respondents told us in follow-up interviews that they’re still lukewarm about him. Kenneth Brant, 28, who lives in Florida and voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders in the primary, was initially unhappy when Biden won the nomination but says he’s more enthusiastic about him now. Still, however, he feels pretty “resigned” about his vote.
Brant wasn’t the only young voter we spoke with who was dissatisfied with his options, or politics more generally. Andrew B., 29, said he finds politics very frustrating, because people on opposite sides of the aisle won’t admit that anything their opponents have done is good. Briana Thompson, 26, feels disappointed with her voting choices. She told us that since she lives in South Carolina, a red state, she doesn’t expect her vote to matter, which is why she’s decided to vote for the Green Party candidate instead of Biden. Thompson feels that sends a stronger message than simply voting for Biden. “[With] each [election] I am increasingly more jaded,” she said.
Other voters, like Brant, who still plans to vote for one of the two major candidates, also approached the process itself with a heavy layer of cynicism. Even though he lives in a swing state, Brant told us he still doesn’t think it will make a difference. “Honestly, Florida has never had free and fair elections,” he said.
These kinds of attitudes were common among the young voters we spoke with. That’s one reason why — particularly considering the high barriers they typically face — young voter turnout might continue to ebb and flow, even if we see record-high turnout this year. And many young people will likely continue to feel disenchanted with politics, even if they keep casting a ballot.
We asked Brant whether he’ll keep voting in 2022 and 2024, even if Trump wins, and he responded with the verbal equivalent of a shrug. “Yeah, sure, my vote won’t matter for anything, but I’ll cast it to say that I cast it.”
Tony Chow contributed reporting.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-30--What Are The Chances We’ll Know The Next President On Election Night?

FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver discusses the race in Pennsylvania , when we ’ ll know the outcome of the general @ @ @ @ @ that the Supreme Court will need to step in to determine the winner of the @ @

What Are The Chances We’ll Know The Next President On Election Night?
FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver discusses the race in Pennsylvania, when we’ll know the outcome of the general election, and the chances that the Supreme Court will need to step in to determine the winner of the presidency.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-30--Why Trump Has A Better Chance Of Winning Pennsylvania Than Wisconsin Or Michigan

In this installment of Model Talk , editor-in-chief Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted @ @ @ @ @ battleground states and whether there is reason to believe that “ shy Trump voters ” @ @ @ @ @ upset win .

In this installment of Model Talk, editor-in-chief Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the key battleground states and whether there is reason to believe that “shy Trump voters” could give the president an upset win.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-30--Politics Podcast: There Just Isn’t Good Evidence That ‘Shy’ Trump Voters Exist

This is the final ( ! )
preelection installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast .
Galen Druke @ @ @ @ @ about the latest polling shifts in key battleground states and whether there is any reason @ @ @ @ @ Trump voters ” will deliver an upset win for the president on Election Day .
@ @ @ @ @ isn ’ t . )
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “ @ @ @ @ @ audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your @ @ @ @ @ you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast @ @ @ @ @ .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on @ @ @ @ @ , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
Get in @ @ @ @ @ Twitter or in the comments .

This is the final(!) preelection installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke talks to editor-in-chief Nate Silver about the latest polling shifts in key battleground states and whether there is any reason to believe that “shy Trump voters” will deliver an upset win for the president on Election Day. (The evidence suggests there isn’t.)
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-30--Biden Doesn’t Have A Popularity Problem. That Might Help Him Win.

From the start of the Democratic primary , many Democratic voters prioritized electability , with plenty believing that Joe Biden was the most electable Democratic candidate in a general election against President Trump .
Not everyone bought that argument : Some argued that Trump would easily caricature Biden and make him less popular with voters .
Even FiveThirtyEight was skeptical of Biden ’ s electability argument .
Sure , Biden was well-known and perceived as moderate , not to mention experienced .
But it was hard to evaluate the accuracy of Democratic primary voters ’ sense of Biden ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrats were just scaring themselves into backing a white , moderate and male candidate in reaction to Hillary Clinton ’ s loss in 2016 .
But it is increasingly looking like Democractic primary voters might have been right about Biden ’ s electability argument .
In the face of relentless attacks from the Trump campaign , Biden hasn ’ t dipped in the polls ; in fact , he ’ s actually become better liked , and has built a formidable favorability advantage over Trump .
One way we can see this is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polls asking voters to choose between Biden and Trump with generic ballot polls that ask voters whether they support a Democrat or Republican for Congress .
Initially , Trump led on this metric , performing better than the generic Republican congressional candidate by approximately 3 percentage points earlier in 2020 , but Biden ’ s popularity has steadily ticked upward since mid-April .
And since August , Biden has led Trump on this metric ( although Trump has ticked up in October ) .
Even though Democrats have long led on the generic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point advantage , on average — Biden is not just ahead because voters prefer Democrats .
He ’ s ahead because voters support Biden more than they support the average Democrat running for Congress .
In fact , when asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable attitude toward Biden , voters have either remained positive or split .
That is a big contrast with 2016 , when voters had consistently negative attitudes toward Clinton ( and Trump ) .
One possible reason Biden might have a popularity edge ?
General election voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and historically , more moderate presidential candidates generally do better in general elections .
They generate less opposition when it comes to voter turnout and are perceived as less extreme by swing voters — though that advantage is declining .
In fact , Trump benefited from this dynamic in 2016 , when he was perceived as more moderate than most Republican candidates .
( Although when we compare the current cycle to 2016 , there is the separate question of gender , which is difficult to entangle but shouldn ’ t be discounted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ testament to Biden ’ s strength as a general election candidate , though , is the fact that he continues to do better than Democratic primary runner-up Sen. Bernie Sanders in head-to-head matchups against Trump .
He held a consistent advantage during the primaries and that has continued in hypothetical polls afterward .
Republicans have still been trying to tie Biden to “ socialists ” and “ the radical left , ” by linking him to Sanders , House Speaker Nancy Pelosi , and Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar .
But if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden largely the same way that they would have against Sanders , it has not worked .
Additionally , Biden ’ s supposed lack of enthusiasm among small donors never really materialized .
Despite struggling with online donations in the primary , Biden is now raising 1,000 times as much online per day as he was last year .
He ’ s also outraising Trump , which suggests that maybe in fundraising , partisanship matters more than excitement around the nominee or even ideology .
Likewise , voter turnout estimates remain very high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turnout in the primary , voters may not need a younger or more liberal candidate to be inclined to participate .
So if Biden wins , those who argued that his “ electability advantage ” was unreal or was based on a voter misunderstanding may need to revisit those takes .
Sometimes the conventional wisdom , even among voters , is right .

From the start of the Democratic primary, many Democratic voters prioritized electability, with plenty believing that Joe Biden was the most electable Democratic candidate in a general election against President Trump. Not everyone bought that argument: Some argued that Trump would easily caricature Biden and make him less popular with voters. Even FiveThirtyEight was skeptical of Biden’s electability argument.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
Sure, Biden was well-known and perceived as moderate, not to mention experienced. But it was hard to evaluate the accuracy of Democratic primary voters’ sense of Biden’s electability. There was the possibility that Democrats were just scaring themselves into backing a white, moderate and male candidate in reaction to Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016.
What the deluge of final polls can tell us | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
But it is increasingly looking like Democractic primary voters might have been right about Biden’s electability argument. In the face of relentless attacks from the Trump campaign, Biden hasn’t dipped in the polls; in fact, he’s actually become better liked, and has built a formidable favorability advantage over Trump.
One way we can see this is if we compare the results of presidential polls asking voters to choose between Biden and Trump with generic ballot polls that ask voters whether they support a Democrat or Republican for Congress. Initially, Trump led on this metric, performing better than the generic Republican congressional candidate by approximately 3 percentage points earlier in 2020, but Biden’s popularity has steadily ticked upward since mid-April. And since August, Biden has led Trump on this metric (although Trump has ticked up in October).
Even though Democrats have long led on the generic ballot — they have a nearly 8 point advantage, on average — Biden is not just ahead because voters prefer Democrats. He’s ahead because voters support Biden more than they support the average Democrat running for Congress.
In fact, when asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable attitude toward Biden, voters have either remained positive or split. That is a big contrast with 2016, when voters had consistently negative attitudes toward Clinton (and Trump).
One possible reason Biden might have a popularity edge? General election voters still perceive Biden as relatively moderate, and historically, more moderate presidential candidates generally do better in general elections. They generate less opposition when it comes to voter turnout and are perceived as less extreme by swing voters — though that advantage is declining. In fact, Trump benefited from this dynamic in 2016, when he was perceived as more moderate than most Republican candidates. (Although when we compare the current cycle to 2016, there is the separate question of gender, which is difficult to entangle but shouldn’t be discounted as a possible factor.)
Further testament to Biden’s strength as a general election candidate, though, is the fact that he continues to do better than Democratic primary runner-up Sen. Bernie Sanders in head-to-head matchups against Trump. He held a consistent advantage during the primaries and that has continued in hypothetical polls afterward. Republicans have still been trying to tie Biden to “socialists” and “the radical left,” by linking him to Sanders, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar. But if Republicans’ plan was to run against Biden largely the same way that they would have against Sanders, it has not worked.
Additionally, Biden’s supposed lack of enthusiasm among small donors never really materialized. Despite struggling with online donations in the primary, Biden is now raising 1,000 times as much online per day as he was last year. He’s also outraising Trump, which suggests that maybe in fundraising, partisanship matters more than excitement around the nominee or even ideology. Likewise, voter turnout estimates remain very high. So despite concerns around young voter turnout in the primary, voters may not need a younger or more liberal candidate to be inclined to participate.
So if Biden wins, those who argued that his “electability advantage” was unreal or was based on a voter misunderstanding may need to revisit those takes. Sometimes the conventional wisdom, even among voters, is right.
What are the chances we’ll know the next president on election night?


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-30--When To Expect Election Results In Every State

Here ’ s a general picture of how much of the vote we expect to be counted on election night in all 50 states and Washington , D.C .
If you click on a given state , it ’ ll take you to a more detailed description of when to expect results and whether to expect a red or blue shift in the vote count .
There ’ s a good chance we won ’ t know who won the presidential election on election night .
More people than ever are voting by mail this year due to the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ count than ballots cast at polling places .
But because each state has its own rules for how votes are counted and reported , some will report results sooner than others .
Those disparate rules may also make initial returns misleading : The margins in some states may shift toward Democrats as mail ballots ( which are overwhelmingly cast by Democrats ) are counted , while states that release mail ballots first may experience a shift toward Republicans as Election Day votes are tallied .
The upshot for the presidential race is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of where things are headed on election night , even if no candidate is able to clinch 270 electoral votes ( which is the threshold required to win ) until later in the week .
We should get near-complete results in Florida in a matter of hours ; Arizona and North Carolina will release the vast majority of their ballots very quickly , although if the race is too close to call they may not provide a final answer for days .
Georgia and Texas should tally most ballots on Nov. 3 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Thursday .
We should know the winner in Wisconsin by Wednesday morning ; Michigan and Pennsylvania , by contrast , will probably take until the end of the week .
Of course , there are a lot more races on the ballot than just the presidential contest , so read on to get a more detailed picture of every state .
One last caveat before you dive in : These are just our best guesses based on what we know right now .
Things can always go sideways thanks to human error or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even the fastest-counting state may leave a race uncalled for days if the margin is close enough .

Some states may hold polls open longer if they run into issues like long lines or malfunctioning machines. To follow any changes announced on Election Day, check out our live blog
When To Expect Election Results In Every State A complete guide to poll closing times, vote counting and races to watch on election night 2020
There’s a good chance we won’t know who won the presidential election on election night. More people than ever are voting by mail this year due to the pandemic, and mail ballots take longer to count than ballots cast at polling places. But because each state has its own rules for how votes are counted and reported, some will report results sooner than others. Those disparate rules may also make initial returns misleading: The margins in some states may shift toward Democrats as mail ballots (which are overwhelmingly cast by Democrats) are counted, while states that release mail ballots first may experience a shift toward Republicans as Election Day votes are tallied. Here’s a general picture of how much of the vote we expect to be counted on election night in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. If you click on a given state, it’ll take you to a more detailed description of when to expect results and whether to expect a red or blue shift in the vote count.
How much of the vote is expected to be counted on election night? Nearly all Most but not all Only some Ark. Ark. Tenn. Tenn. Ga. Ga. Miss. Miss. Fla. Fla. Idaho Idaho N.D. N.D. Minn. Minn. Ill. Ill. N.Y. N.Y. Pa. Pa. Nev. Nev. Ind. Ind. Colo. Colo. Va. Va. Calif. Calif. Mo. Mo. W. Va. W. Va. Md. Md. D.C. D.C. Wis. Wis. N.M. N.M. S.C. S.C. Ariz. Ariz. Kan. Kan. N.C. N.C. Okla. Okla. La. La. Ala. Ala. Alaska Alaska Hawaii Hawaii Texas Texas Mont. Mont. Wash. Wash. Mich. Mich. Mass. Mass. N.J. N.J. Wyo. Wyo. Ore. Ore. S.D. S.D. Iowa Iowa Ohio Ohio Conn. Conn. R.I. R.I. Utah Utah Neb. Neb. Ky. Ky. Del. Del. Vt. Vt. N.H. N.H. Maine Maine