fivethirtyeight--2020-03-13--Pop Quiz: Which Sanders Policies Are Popular?

Sen. Bernie Sanders has staked out some of the furthest-left positions of any recent presidential candidate , but can he get the public to back them ?
Polls show that some of his ideas may be too progressive for many Americans … but others are downright popular .
Can you guess which are which ?
Let ’ s start with an easy one .
Sanders wants to legalize recreational marijuana across the country , while Biden wants to decriminalize it on the federal level — so violations would come with penalties like fines instead of jail time — and let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for All emerged early on as a major dividing line in the primary .
Biden opposes it , preferring to offer patients a public option in addition to their current health-insurance choices .
But Sanders is the standard-bearer for an aggressive Medicare-for-All plan , arguing that government-run health insurance should essentially replace private insurance .
The takeaway : While a solid 42 percent of Americans supported Medicare for All , an even larger 51 percent opposed it .
Meanwhile , in the same poll , 58 percent supported Biden ’ s plan for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ private insurance ( only 35 percent opposed it ) .
While Medicare for All enjoyed 63 percent support among Democrats , it was anathema to independents , who said 57 percent to 37 percent that it was a bad idea .
( Republicans , unsurprisingly , were even more strongly opposed . )
One of Sanders ’ s most attention-grabbing campaign promises is “ free college ” ; essentially , the government would not charge tuition to students attending public colleges and universities .
Let ’ s see how popular it is among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a tax on extreme wealth , an idea popularized this election by Sen. Elizabeth Warren .
As far as we know , no polls have asked about the specific details of Sanders ’ s proposed tax , which starts with a 1 percent tax on net worth above $ 32 million for a married couple and gets gradually steeper the richer you are .
But take a stab at guessing how the general public felt about the details of Warren ’ s wealth tax .
In the first Democratic primary debate , Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their hands when asked if they supported making illegal border crossings a civil , rather than criminal , offense , meaning people would no longer face jail time , though they could still be deported for the civil violation .
However , Biden says he would maintain the status quo .
Let ’ s see which side Americans come down on .
OK , last one .
Author Marianne Williamson and billionaire Tom Steyer were the two loudest voices in the field arguing that the U.S. government should pay reparations for slavery .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ mostly steered clear of the issue , although they ’ re in favor of at least studying what a reparations plan might look like .
As much as Sanders ’ s ideas may seem radical , not all of them are unpopular with the people who will decide the November election .
And on some issues , it is Biden , not Sanders , who is out of the mainstream .
So if Democratic primary voters are worried about which positions would be the most broadly palatable in the general election , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ moderate ones .

Can You Guess How Popular Bernie Sanders’s Policies Are?
Sen. Bernie Sanders has staked out some of the furthest-left positions of any recent presidential candidate, but can he get the public to back them? Polls show that some of his ideas may be too progressive for many Americans … but others are downright popular. Can you guess which are which?
Let’s start with an easy one. Sanders wants to legalize recreational marijuana across the country, while Biden wants to decriminalize it on the federal level — so violations would come with penalties like fines instead of jail time — and let the states decide on legalization.
What percentage of Americans supports making marijuana use legal? 0 25 50 75 100 Margin of error 50% 66% of Americans support making marijuana use legal. Source: Gallup poll, Oct. 2019 Guess
The takeaway: Americans agreed with Sanders on this one. That included a majority of Democrats, independents and Republicans, so this stance shouldn’t hurt him at all, even in a general election.
Medicare for All emerged early on as a major dividing line in the primary. Biden opposes it, preferring to offer patients a public option in addition to their current health-insurance choices. But Sanders is the standard-bearer for an aggressive Medicare-for-All plan, arguing that government-run health insurance should essentially replace private insurance.
What percentage of Americans think Medicare for All, defined as a national health insurance program for all Americans that replaces private health insurance, is a good idea? 0 25 50 75 100 Margin of error 50% 42% of Americans support Medicare for All. Source: NPR/PBS/Marist College poll, Dec. 2019 Guess
The takeaway: While a solid 42 percent of Americans supported Medicare for All, an even larger 51 percent opposed it. Meanwhile, in the same poll, 58 percent supported Biden’s plan for a public option that would compete with private insurance (only 35 percent opposed it). While Medicare for All enjoyed 63 percent support among Democrats, it was anathema to independents, who said 57 percent to 37 percent that it was a bad idea. (Republicans, unsurprisingly, were even more strongly opposed.)
One of Sanders’s most attention-grabbing campaign promises is “free college”; essentially, the government would not charge tuition to students attending public colleges and universities. Let’s see how popular it is among the general public.
What percentage of registered voters support providing free tuition at state colleges and universities? 0 25 50 75 100 Margin of error 50% 58% of Americans support free college. Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Sept. 2019 Guess
The takeaway: Turns out free college is pretty popular; only 39 percent of voters said they opposed it. A stance like this could help Sanders — or Biden — in November.
Sanders also supports a tax on extreme wealth, an idea popularized this election by Sen. Elizabeth Warren. As far as we know, no polls have asked about the specific details of Sanders’s proposed tax, which starts with a 1 percent tax on net worth above $32 million for a married couple and gets gradually steeper the richer you are. But take a stab at guessing how the general public felt about the details of Warren’s wealth tax.
What percentage of registered voters favor a 2 percent wealth tax on an individual’s net worth over $50 million? 0 25 50 75 100 Margin of error 50% 68% of Americans support a wealth tax. Source: Fox News poll, Dec. 2019 Guess
The takeaway: Warren’s wealth tax was extremely popular among Americans of all political persuasions — 83 percent of Democrats, 68 percent of independents and even 51 percent of Republicans supported it. If the Democratic nominee campaigns on a wealth tax in the fall, it doesn’t look like it would hurt him.
In the first Democratic primary debate, Sanders was among the many candidates who raised their hands when asked if they supported making illegal border crossings a civil, rather than criminal, offense, meaning people would no longer face jail time, though they could still be deported for the civil violation. However, Biden says he would maintain the status quo. Let’s see which side Americans come down on.
What percentage of Americans think decriminalizing illegal border crossings is a good idea? 0 25 50 75 100 Margin of error 50% 29% of Americans support decriminalizing border crossings. Source: NPR/PBS/Marist College poll, Dec. 2019 Guess
The takeaway: This is one of Sanders’s most unpopular positions, and it could open him up to attacks if he makes it to the general election. Independents oppose decriminalization 70 percent to 24 percent; even among Democrats, only a bare majority (51 percent) support it.
OK, last one. Author Marianne Williamson and billionaire Tom Steyer were the two loudest voices in the field arguing that the U.S. government should pay reparations for slavery. Biden and Sanders, however, have mostly steered clear of the issue, although they’re in favor of at least studying what a reparations plan might look like.
What percentage of Americans think the federal government should pay reparations for slavery and racial discrimination to the descendants of enslaved people? 0 25 50 75 100 Margin of error 50% 29% of Americans support reparations for slavery. Source: AP/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll, Sept. 2019 Guess
The takeaway: Reparations are not popular among the general public, so Biden and Sanders should hope it does not come up as a major issue in the fall. However, there is a stark racial divide: Only 15 percent of white people support reparations, but 74 percent of black people do.
As much as Sanders’s ideas may seem radical, not all of them are unpopular with the people who will decide the November election. And on some issues, it is Biden, not Sanders, who is out of the mainstream. So if Democratic primary voters are worried about which positions would be the most broadly palatable in the general election, the answer isn’t necessarily the most moderate ones.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-13--How Concerned Are Americans About Coronavirus So Far?

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
Depending on what data you look at , more than 1,500 Americans have been diagnosed with coronavirus — or close to 1,200 — although neither count reflects how many people might be infected .
It ’ s a hard disease to track , because there ’ s still so much we don ’ t know .
At this point , though , Americans have started to form opinions about the seriousness of the threat of coronavirus , and overall , they ’ re concerned .
In six polls conducted between Feb. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 45 to 57 percent of Americans said they were either very or somewhat concerned about themselves , their family members or members of their community contracting the disease .
However , there are some pretty stark differences in how Democrats and Republicans view the threat of coronavirus .
Some polls , like a recent Quinnipiac University survey , show just one-third of Republicans expressing concern , compared with 68 percent of Democrats .
Other pollsters have found a narrower gap — in a recent Public Policy Polling survey , for instance , 44 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ versus 67 percent of Democrats .
But as you can see in the table below , a partisan split is emerging : This party-line split isn ’ t that surprising , though : According to experts , many public health issues — which are seemingly nonpartisan — have become increasingly polarizing .
Sarah Gollust , professor of health policy and management at the University of Minnesota , said that a similar rift emerged in 2009 during the swine flu outbreak and in 2014 during the Ebola virus outbreak .
Democrats were much more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Barack Obama handled those epidemics well .
In April 2009 , for instance , a Gallup poll found that 83 percent of Democrats approved of the Obama administration ’ s handling of the swine flu caused by the H1N1 virus , while just 47 percent of Republicans approved .
Similarly in October 2014 , a CBS News poll found that 71 percent of Democrats approved of Obama ’ s handling of the Ebola virus , while just 23 percent of Republicans approved .
“ People are more likely to believe the team in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ re on their team , ” Gollust said .
This partisan loyalty is somewhat reflected in Americans ’ approval of how President Trump is handling the coronavirus .
Overall , between 37 and 47 percent said they approve of the way Trump has handled coronavirus , according to six polls conducted between March 1 and March 8 .
But as you can see in the table , there is a sharp partisan split .
Melina Platas , professor of political science at New York University Abu Dhabi , said how much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also impact how serious they think the virus is , especially given Trump has been at odds with other government agencies in messaging about coronavirus .
In fact , a late-February YouGov poll found that Republicans are roughly split on whether to believe the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , which warned that coronavirus outbreaks are likely to hit the U.S , or the president who said that coronavirus is “ very well under control in our country.
” Twenty-eight percent of Republicans said they believed the CDC , compared with 27 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Another 28 percent said they believe both the CDC and Trump equally .
Meanwhile , an overwhelming majority of Democrats ( 83 percent ) said they believe the CDC over the president .
“ The fact that the president has been downplaying the public health threat , for example , comparing it favorably to the flu , which he tweeted about [ Monday ] , or saying that the media is exaggerating the threat might explain with Republicans are less worried about coronavirus than Democrats , ” Platas said .
And Gollust @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus seriously can reduce the likelihood of people taking preventive action , too .
“ From a public health perspective , it ’ s most concerning to see that partisan differences emerge around how big a threat [ it is ] and how serious to take those risks of COVID-19 , ” she said .
Recent polling already highlights some differences in how seriously Democrats and Republicans are approaching preventative actions they can take .
For example , even though the CDC recommends avoiding large events to avoid spreading the virus , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 67 percent of Democrats said they were at least somewhat likely to avoid large events , while only 49 percent of Republicans said the same .
Similarly , 53 percent of Democrats in that same poll said they were avoiding public spaces like restaurants or theaters , compared with 37 percent of Republicans .
It ’ s important to remember though that some of the partisan split we ’ re currently seeing might change , especially if the virus continues to spread .
And at this point , much of the polling we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ few public cases , concentrated largely in a few states — Washington , New York and California .
Platas told me that this could mean that some of the policy and personal guidelines have been entirely hypothetical for some people .
But , she added , as the virus spreads and hits people closer to home , the threat may become more real and perhaps the partisan divide will narrow .
• On Thursday , the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 had its worst drop since the 1987 market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because of fears of coronavirus .
There ’ s reason to believe that Americans are concerned about the stock market right now , too .
In a YouGov poll conducted on Tuesday , 62 percent of Americans , including 64 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of Republicans , said what happens in the stock market matters a great deal or somewhat to them .
Overall , 30 percent say it doesn ’ t matter that much or at all .
• According to a recent Economist/YouGov poll , just 13 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probably true that coronavirus is a hoax .
There ’ s a pretty stark age gap , as just 6 percent of Americans over 65 say it ’ s a hoax compared with 19 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 to 29 and 20 percent of Americans between the ages of 30 to 44 .
• In that same Economist/YouGov poll , slightly more than half of Americans , including 77 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of Republicans , think the federal government should increase the amount of money it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diseases .
• Last week , Sen. Elizabeth Warren said in an interview with MSNBC ’ s Rachel Maddow that presidential candidates are “ responsible for the people who claim to be our supporters and do really dangerous , threatening things to other candidates.
” But Americans are split on the issue .
Forty-five percent of Americans said they thought presidential candidates should be held responsible for the actions of their supporters , while 32 percent think they should not be held responsible , according to a recent YouGov poll .
• According @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 41 percent of Americans said their employer has made hand sanitizer available as a precautionary measure protecting the workplace from coronavirus .
Separately , 16 percent said their employer recommended employees not shake hands and 13 percent said their employee allowed employees to work from home .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 42.3 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president , while 53.2 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -10.9 points ) .
At this time last week , 42.9 percent approved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ net approval rating of -10 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 43.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.2 percent , for a net approval rating of -8.9 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 6.1 percentage points ( 48.8 percent to 41.7 percent ) .
A week ago , Democrats led Republicans by 6.9 points ( 48.0 percent to 41.1 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters preferred Democrats by 5.6 points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Check out all the polls we ’ ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections .

How Concerned Are Americans About Coronavirus So Far? There’s evidence Republicans and Democrats are split, but that could easily change.
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
Depending on what data you look at, more than 1,500 Americans have been diagnosed with coronavirus — or close to 1,200 — although neither count reflects how many people might be infected. It’s a hard disease to track, because there’s still so much we don’t know.
At this point, though, Americans have started to form opinions about the seriousness of the threat of coronavirus, and overall, they’re concerned. In six polls conducted between Feb. 25 and March 11, anywhere from 45 to 57 percent of Americans said they were either very or somewhat concerned about themselves, their family members or members of their community contracting the disease.
Why we shouldnât hope COVID-19 is seasonal like the flu
However, there are some pretty stark differences in how Democrats and Republicans view the threat of coronavirus. Some polls, like a recent Quinnipiac University survey, show just one-third of Republicans expressing concern, compared with 68 percent of Democrats. Other pollsters have found a narrower gap — in a recent Public Policy Polling survey, for instance, 44 percent of Republicans said they were concerned versus 67 percent of Democrats. But as you can see in the table below, a partisan split is emerging:
Democrats are more concerned about coronavirus Share of respondents who said that they were either very or somewhat concerned* about themselves, their family members or community members of their community contracting coronavirus Pollster Overall Democrats Republicans USA Today/Ipsos 54% 62% 48% Quinnipiac 54 68 35 NYT/Survey Monkey 49 62 38 Economist/YouGov 47 63 33 Civiqs 45 67 24 Public Policy Polling 57 67 44 * For USA Today/Ipsos, we combined those who said they were concerned “a great deal” and “a fair amount.” The USA Today/Ipsos poll was conducted from March 10-11, Quinnipiac from March 5–8, NYT/Survey Monkey from March 2–8, Economist/YouGov from March 1–3, Civiqs from Feb. 25–March 10 and Public Policy Polling from March 2–3. Source: Polls
This party-line split isn’t that surprising, though: According to experts, many public health issues — which are seemingly nonpartisan — have become increasingly polarizing.
Sarah Gollust, professor of health policy and management at the University of Minnesota, said that a similar rift emerged in 2009 during the swine flu outbreak and in 2014 during the Ebola virus outbreak. Democrats were much more likely than Republicans to think former President Barack Obama handled those epidemics well.
In April 2009, for instance, a Gallup poll found that 83 percent of Democrats approved of the Obama administration’s handling of the swine flu caused by the H1N1 virus, while just 47 percent of Republicans approved. Similarly in October 2014, a CBS News poll found that 71 percent of Democrats approved of Obama’s handling of the Ebola virus, while just 23 percent of Republicans approved.
“People are more likely to believe the team in charge is doing a good job if they’re on their team,” Gollust said.
This partisan loyalty is somewhat reflected in Americans’ approval of how President Trump is handling the coronavirus. Overall, between 37 and 47 percent said they approve of the way Trump has handled coronavirus, according to six polls conducted between March 1 and March 8. But as you can see in the table, there is a sharp partisan split.
Big partisan splits on Trump’s handling of coronavirus Share of respondents who said they approve* of the way Trump is handling coronavirus Pollster Overall Democrats Republicans Quinnipac 43% 10% 87% NYT/Survey Monkey 47 16 86 CNN/SSRS 41 10 79 Public Policy Polling 42 12 79 Reuters/Ipsos 37 15 75 Economist/YouGov 37 11 85 * For Economist/YouGov and NYT/Survey Monkey, we combined those who strongly and somewhat approved. For Reuter/Ipsos, we included those who leaned towards approval as well. The Quinnipiac poll was conducted from March 5-8, NYT/Survey Monkey from March 2-8, CNN/SSRS from March 4-7, Public Policy Polling from March 2-3, Reuters/Ipsos from March 2-3 and Economist/YouGov from March 1–3. Source: Polls
Melina Platas, professor of political science at New York University Abu Dhabi, said how much Republicans and Democrats trust the president could also impact how serious they think the virus is, especially given Trump has been at odds with other government agencies in messaging about coronavirus. In fact, a late-February YouGov poll found that Republicans are roughly split on whether to believe the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which warned that coronavirus outbreaks are likely to hit the U.S, or the president who said that coronavirus is “very well under control in our country.” Twenty-eight percent of Republicans said they believed the CDC, compared with 27 percent who said they believed the president. Another 28 percent said they believe both the CDC and Trump equally. Meanwhile, an overwhelming majority of Democrats (83 percent) said they believe the CDC over the president.
“The fact that the president has been downplaying the public health threat, for example, comparing it favorably to the flu, which he tweeted about [Monday], or saying that the media is exaggerating the threat might explain why Republicans are less worried about coronavirus than Democrats,” Platas said.
And Gollust said that not taking the threat of the virus seriously can reduce the likelihood of people taking preventive action, too. “From a public health perspective, it’s most concerning to see that partisan differences emerge around how big a threat [it is] and how serious to take those risks of COVID-19,” she said.
Recent polling already highlights some differences in how seriously Democrats and Republicans are approaching preventative actions they can take. For example, even though the CDC recommends avoiding large events to avoid spreading the virus, an Axios/SurveyMonkey poll released Tuesday found that 67 percent of Democrats said they were at least somewhat likely to avoid large events, while only 49 percent of Republicans said the same. Similarly, 53 percent of Democrats in that same poll said they were avoiding public spaces like restaurants or theaters, compared with 37 percent of Republicans.
It’s important to remember though that some of the partisan split we’re currently seeing might change, especially if the virus continues to spread. And at this point, much of the polling we have is in the wake of relatively few public cases, concentrated largely in a few states — Washington, New York and California. Platas told me that this could mean that some of the policy and personal guidelines have been entirely hypothetical for some people. But, she added, as the virus spreads and hits people closer to home, the threat may become more real and perhaps the partisan divide will narrow.
Other polling bites
On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 had its worst drop since the 1987 market crash, known as Black Monday, because of fears of coronavirus. There’s reason to believe that Americans are concerned about the stock market right now, too. In a YouGov poll conducted on Tuesday, 62 percent of Americans, including 64 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of Republicans, said what happens in the stock market matters a great deal or somewhat to them. Overall, 30 percent say it doesn’t matter that much or at all.
According to a recent Economist/YouGov poll, just 13 percent of Americans think it’s definitely or probably true that coronavirus is a hoax. There’s a pretty stark age gap, as just 6 percent of Americans over 65 say it’s a hoax compared with 19 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 to 29 and 20 percent of Americans between the ages of 30 to 44.
In that same Economist/YouGov poll, slightly more than half of Americans, including 77 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of Republicans, think the federal government should increase the amount of money it spends on preventing the spread of infectious diseases.
Last week, Sen. Elizabeth Warren said in an interview with MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow that presidential candidates are “responsible for the people who claim to be our supporters and do really dangerous, threatening things to other candidates.” But Americans are split on the issue. Forty-five percent of Americans said they thought presidential candidates should be held responsible for the actions of their supporters, while 32 percent think they should not be held responsible, according to a recent YouGov poll.
According to a recent Morning Consult poll, 41 percent of Americans said their employer has made hand sanitizer available as a precautionary measure protecting the workplace from coronavirus. Separately, 16 percent said their employer recommended employees not shake hands and 13 percent said their employee allowed employees to work from home.
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 42.3 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 53.2 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -10.9 points). At this time last week, 42.9 percent approved and 52.9 percent disapproved (for a net approval rating of -10 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 43.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.2 percent, for a net approval rating of -8.9 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.1 percentage points (48.8 percent to 41.7 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 6.9 points (48.0 percent to 41.1 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 5.6 points (47.3 percent to 41.7 percent).
Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.
Confidence Interval: The 1st female president will be a Republican


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-13--Confidence Interval: The First Female President Will Be A Republican

Confidence Interval is a series where we make a persuasive argument for a political take , and then reveal just @ @ @ @ @ .
In this episode , copy editor Maya Sweedler makes the case that the first @ @ @ @ @ Republican , and not a Democrat .
To hear from women who have run for @ @ @ @ @ , explore When Women Run .

Confidence Interval is a series where we make a persuasive argument for a political take, and then reveal just how confident we really are. In this episode, copy editor Maya Sweedler makes the case that the first female president will be a Republican, and not a Democrat.
To hear from women who have run for office in all 50 states, explore When Women Run.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-13--Who Will Win The Biden-Sanders Debate?

Who Will Win The Biden-Sanders Debate?

It ’ s been a long slog , but Sunday night ’ s debate , hosted by CNN in Washington @ @ @ @ @ the last debate of the primary .
This time around , just former Vice President @ @ @ @ @ Sanders will take the stage , and to help avoid spreading the new coronavirus , @ @ @ @ @ audience .
But one thing is staying the same : We ’ ve once again @ @ @ @ @ how the debate affects likely primary voters ’ feelings about the candidates .
The FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos @ @ @ @ @ ’ s KnowledgePanel , interviews the same group of voters twice , once on either @ @ @ @ @ to capture both the “ before ” and “ after ” picture .

On Sunday night, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders challenged each other’s records at the debate hosted by CNN in Washington, D.C., but it was the coronavirus that dominated both the debate and headlines. We once again partnered with Ipsos to track how the debate affects likely primary voters’ feelings about the candidates. The FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll, conducted using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, interviews the same group of voters twice, once on either side of the debate, to capture both the “before” and “after” picture.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-13--Can You Guess How Popular Bernie Sanders’s Policies Are?

Can You Guess How Popular Bernie Sanders ’ s Policies Are ?
Sen. Bernie Sanders has staked out some of the furthest-left positions of any recent presidential candidate , but can he get the public to back them ?
Polls show that some of his ideas may be too progressive for many Americans … but others are downright popular .
Can you guess which are which ?
Let ’ s start with an easy one .
Sanders wants to legalize recreational marijuana across the country , while Biden wants to decriminalize it on the federal level — so violations would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jail time — and let the states decide on legalization .
Medicare for All emerged early on as a major dividing line in the primary .
Biden opposes it , preferring to offer patients a public option in addition to their current health-insurance choices .
But Sanders is the standard-bearer for an aggressive Medicare-for-All plan , arguing that government-run health insurance should essentially replace private insurance .
The takeaway : While a solid 42 percent of Americans supported Medicare for All , an even larger 51 percent opposed it .
Meanwhile , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden ’ s plan for a public option that would compete with private insurance ( only 35 percent opposed it ) .
While Medicare for All enjoyed 63 percent support among Democrats , it was anathema to independents , who said 57 percent to 37 percent that it was a bad idea .
( Republicans , unsurprisingly , were even more strongly opposed . )
One of Sanders ’ s most attention-grabbing campaign promises is “ free college ” ; essentially , the government would not charge tuition to students attending public colleges @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how popular it is among the general public .
Sanders also supports a tax on extreme wealth , an idea popularized this election by Sen. Elizabeth Warren .
As far as we know , no polls have asked about the specific details of Sanders ’ s proposed tax , which starts with a 1 percent tax on net worth above $ 32 million for a married couple and gets gradually steeper the richer you are .
But take a stab at guessing how the general public felt about the details of Warren ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic primary debate , Sanders was among the many candidates who raised their hands when asked if they supported making illegal border crossings a civil , rather than criminal , offense , meaning people would no longer face jail time , though they could still be deported for the civil violation .
However , Biden says he would maintain the status quo .
Let ’ s see which side Americans come down on .
OK , last one .
Author Marianne Williamson and billionaire Tom Steyer were the two loudest voices in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pay reparations for slavery .
Biden and Sanders , however , have mostly steered clear of the issue , although they ’ re in favor of at least studying what a reparations plan might look like .
As much as Sanders ’ s ideas may seem radical , not all of them are unpopular with the people who will decide the November election .
And on some issues , it is Biden , not Sanders , who is out of the mainstream .
So if Democratic primary voters are worried about which positions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the general election , the answer isn ’ t necessarily the most moderate ones .


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-14--Why We Shouldn’t Hope COVID-19 Is Seasonal Like The Flu

What makes a disease seasonal ?
And will the new coronavirus go away as the weather gets warmer ?
Scientists @ @ @

Why We Shouldn’t Hope COVID-19 Is Seasonal Like The Flu
What makes a disease seasonal? And will the new coronavirus go away as the weather gets warmer? Scientists hope it won’t have seasonal cycles like the flu does.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-16--What Our Forecast Says About The Race In Florida And Arizona

While the COVID-19 virus continues to dominate headlines , the Democratic presidential primary marches on — for the most part , at least .
On Tuesday , four states vote , including some of the most delegate-rich states in the country .
The main question now is just how much of an edge does former Vice President Joe Biden have in each contest , given his strong position overall .
( Our model thinks he has a more than 99 percent chance of winning the majority of pledged delegates . )
The results on Tuesday could affect how long Sen. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and how soon Biden secures that delegate majority , and thus the nomination .
So here ’ s a closer look at what our forecast has to say about the two Sun Belt states casting ballots on Tuesday : Florida and Arizona .
( You can read about Tuesday ’ s Midwestern contests , in Illinois and Ohio , here . )
Biden is favored to defeat Sanders by large margins in both Florida and Arizona .
He has a greater than 99 percent chance of winning the most votes in Florida , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 98 percent chance in Arizona .
Let ’ s look at Florida first .
The Sunshine State is worth 219 pledged delegates , and Biden wins , on average , 68 percent of the vote there , versus just 27 percent for Sanders , per our forecast .
A result like that would likely give Biden the bulk of Florida ’ s 76 statewide delegates .
Florida ’ s other 143 pledged delegates are apportioned according to how the candidates perform in each of the state ’ s 27 congressional districts , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Sanders at the district level either .
Instead , Biden ’ s large statewide edge is reflected , to varying degrees , in every district .
His smallest average margin in any district is still a whopping 33 percentage points .
And there are even a few districts where Sanders ’ s forecasted vote share is only a few points above the 15 percent threshold needed to qualify for delegates — in other words , it ’ s possible that Sanders will miss out on winning any delegates in a handful of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s three strongest districts — thanks to his overwhelming support from black voters — are all either majority or plurality African American .
He projects to win at least 75 percent of the vote , on average , in the 5th Congressional District that stretches across northern Florida ( including parts of Jacksonville and Tallahassee ) , as well as in the 20th and 24th Congressional districts in South Florida , stretching from parts of Palm Beach to Miami .
But Biden also gets around 70 percent in fairly white and rural districts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Congressional districts in the Florida Panhandle , owing to his solid showings among white voters in the South .
Indeed , Sanders ’ s weakness among black voters and southern whites makes him a particularly poor fit for Florida .
Sanders has performed better among Hispanic voters than Biden , but that will likely be less true in Florida , particularly in South Florida , where many Hispanics are Cuban Americans .
As my colleagues Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich wrote , Sanders ’ s identification as a “ democratic socialist ” — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ condemn former Cuban President Fidel Castro may be off putting to many Cuban Americans , who tend to be more anti-socialism given Cuba ’ s socialist past .
Moving west across the southern U.S. , Arizona doesn ’ t look to be a Biden blow-out quite on Florida ’ s level , but it still doesn ’ t look all that competitive .
Our forecast gives Biden a 49 in 50 ( 98 percent ) chance of winning Arizona , leaving Sanders with only a 1 in 50 shot .
Twenty-three of Arizona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ awarded based on the statewide vote share , and Biden wins an average of 58 percent compared to Sanders ’ s 34 percent , according to our forecast .
The other 44 pledged delegates will come from each of Arizona ’ s nine congressional districts .
And as the table below shows , we expect the outcomes in these seats to look pretty similar , with Biden holding a 20-plus point advantage in each district .
Still , there ’ s no risk of Sanders missing the 15 percent threshold anywhere , unlike @ @ @ @ @ @ @ edge in both of Arizona ’ s majority-Latino seats : the 3rd Congressional District that sits mostly southwest of Phoenix and runs along the U.S.-Mexico border , as well as the 7th Congressional District in Phoenix .
And while that may be a little surprising because Sanders has been stronger among Latino voters than Biden thus far , it ’ s important to remember that most primary voters in Arizona will be non-Hispanic white .
There was no exit poll for the Democratic primary in 2016 , but data from the Cooperative Congressional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the electorate was non-Hispanic white then .
Still , there ’ s a chance that Sanders will do better in the seats with large Latino populations — a recent Mason-Dixon poll of only Latino voters in Arizona found Sanders narrowly ahead of Biden — but it ’ s also possible that Biden ’ s lead as the front-runner will eat into some of Sanders ’ s support among Latinos .
That poll was conducted in the days just after Super Tuesday , and Biden ’ s grip on the nomination is considerably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a heavy favorite to win both of these states on Tuesday , likely by margins that will add to his already considerable delegate lead over Sanders .
If Sanders is to remain at all competitive , he needs to do far better than the polls show in places like Florida and Arizona .
Check out all the polls we ’ ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections .
< h2 > Confidence Interval : The First Female President Will Be A Republican < /h2 >

While the COVID-19 virus continues to dominate headlines, the Democratic presidential primary marches on — for the most part, at least. On Tuesday, four states vote, including some of the most delegate-rich states in the country. The main question now is just how much of an edge does former Vice President Joe Biden have in each contest, given his strong position overall. (Our model thinks he has a more than 99 percent chance of winning the majority of pledged delegates.) The results on Tuesday could affect how long Sen. Bernie Sanders stays in the race — and how soon Biden secures that delegate majority, and thus the nomination.
So here’s a closer look at what our forecast has to say about the two Sun Belt states casting ballots on Tuesday: Florida and Arizona. (You can read about Tuesday’s Midwestern contests, in Illinois and Ohio, here.)
Biden is favored to defeat Sanders by large margins in both Florida and Arizona. He has a greater than 99 percent chance of winning the most votes in Florida, according to our forecast, and a 98 percent chance in Arizona.
Let’s look at Florida first. The Sunshine State is worth 219 pledged delegates, and Biden wins, on average, 68 percent of the vote there, versus just 27 percent for Sanders, per our forecast. A result like that would likely give Biden the bulk of Florida’s 76 statewide delegates.
Florida’s other 143 pledged delegates are apportioned according to how the candidates perform in each of the state’s 27 congressional districts, but there’s not much good news for Sanders at the district level either. Instead, Biden’s large statewide edge is reflected, to varying degrees, in every district. His smallest average margin in any district is still a whopping 33 percentage points. And there are even a few districts where Sanders’s forecasted vote share is only a few points above the 15 percent threshold needed to qualify for delegates — in other words, it’s possible that Sanders will miss out on winning any delegates in a handful of Florida districts on Tuesday.
Biden should rack up Florida delegates — everywhere Average forecasted vote share for the top two Democratic presidential candidates in Florida congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 6 p.m. on March 15 District Biden Sanders FL-01 69% 27% FL-02 70 26 FL-03 69 26 FL-04 67 28 FL-05 76 19 FL-06 68 28 FL-07 66 29 FL-08 67 28 FL-09 68 28 FL-10 71 25 FL-11 67 28 FL-12 65 30 FL-13 67 28 FL-14 69 27 FL-15 68 28 FL-16 66 29 FL-17 67 28 FL-18 68 27 FL-19 66 29 FL-20 76 20 FL-21 68 26 FL-22 68 27 FL-23 67 28 FL-24 75 21 FL-25 64 31 FL-26 66 29 FL-27 64 31 State 69 27
Biden’s three strongest districts — thanks to his overwhelming support from black voters — are all either majority or plurality African American. He projects to win at least 75 percent of the vote, on average, in the 5th Congressional District that stretches across northern Florida (including parts of Jacksonville and Tallahassee), as well as in the 20th and 24th Congressional districts in South Florida, stretching from parts of Palm Beach to Miami. But Biden also gets around 70 percent in fairly white and rural districts, such as the 1st and 2nd Congressional districts in the Florida Panhandle, owing to his solid showings among white voters in the South. Indeed, Sanders’s weakness among black voters and southern whites makes him a particularly poor fit for Florida.
Sanders has performed better among Hispanic voters than Biden, but that will likely be less true in Florida, particularly in South Florida, where many Hispanics are Cuban Americans. As my colleagues Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich wrote, Sanders’s identification as a “democratic socialist” — and his refusal earlier this year to condemn former Cuban President Fidel Castro may be off putting to many Cuban Americans, who tend to be more anti-socialism given Cuba’s socialist past.
Moving west across the southern U.S., Arizona doesn’t look to be a Biden blow-out quite on Florida’s level, but it still doesn’t look all that competitive. Our forecast gives Biden a 49 in 50 (98 percent) chance of winning Arizona, leaving Sanders with only a 1 in 50 shot. Twenty-three of Arizona’s 67 pledged delegates will be awarded based on the statewide vote share, and Biden wins an average of 58 percent compared to Sanders’s 34 percent, according to our forecast.
The other 44 pledged delegates will come from each of Arizona’s nine congressional districts. And as the table below shows, we expect the outcomes in these seats to look pretty similar, with Biden holding a 20-plus point advantage in each district. Still, there’s no risk of Sanders missing the 15 percent threshold anywhere, unlike in Florida.
Biden leads in Arizona, but Sanders will win some delegates Average forecasted vote share for the top two Democratic presidential candidates in Arizona congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 6 p.m. on March 15 District Biden Sanders AZ-01 60% 32% AZ-02 58 34 AZ-03 58 34 AZ-04 59 33 AZ-05 56 35 AZ-06 57 34 AZ-07 58 35 AZ-08 57 35 AZ-09 57 35 State 58 34
Biden has a sizable edge in both of Arizona’s majority-Latino seats: the 3rd Congressional District that sits mostly southwest of Phoenix and runs along the U.S.-Mexico border, as well as the 7th Congressional District in Phoenix. And while that may be a little surprising because Sanders has been stronger among Latino voters than Biden thus far, it’s important to remember that most primary voters in Arizona will be non-Hispanic white. There was no exit poll for the Democratic primary in 2016, but data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study estimated that around 70 percent of the electorate was non-Hispanic white then.
Still, there’s a chance that Sanders will do better in the seats with large Latino populations — a recent Mason-Dixon poll of only Latino voters in Arizona found Sanders narrowly ahead of Biden — but it’s also possible that Biden’s lead as the front-runner will eat into some of Sanders’s support among Latinos. That poll was conducted in the days just after Super Tuesday, and Biden’s grip on the nomination is considerably tighter now.
In short, Biden is a heavy favorite to win both of these states on Tuesday, likely by margins that will add to his already considerable delegate lead over Sanders. If Sanders is to remain at all competitive, he needs to do far better than the polls show in places like Florida and Arizona.
Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.
Confidence Interval: The 1st female president will be a Republican


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-16--What Our Forecast Says About The Race In Illinois And Ohio

Last Tuesday , former Vice President Joe Biden scored a big win in Michigan , and he now finds himself as the overwhelming favorite in FiveThirtyEight ’ s forecast with a greater than 99 in 100 shot of winning a majority of pledged delegates .
Biden ’ s strength in Michigan , as well as in Minnesota on Super Tuesday , augurs well for his chances , too , against Sen. Bernie Sanders in the two contests happening in the Midwest on Tuesday : Illinois and Ohio .
These states have the sixth and seventh-most pledged delegates , respectfully , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them particularly important in the delegate battle between Biden and Sanders .
( You can read more about what our forecast shows for Tuesday ’ s other two contests , Arizona and Florida , in our Sun Belt preview here . )
Biden is a favorite in both — based on his performance elsewhere in the Midwest and the fact that he ’ s up by at least 20 percentage points in our polling averages of both Illinois and Ohio .
But there ’ s still some uncertainty clouding our view of these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have much recent polling in either state — just three March polls in Illinois and just one March survey in Ohio .
So our forecast is relying quite a bit on what has happened in previous contests and the demographics of both states .
Let ’ s start with Illinois ; with 155 pledged delegates at stake , it ’ s the larger of the two primaries .
Our forecast gives Biden a better than 99 in 100 shot of finishing first .
On average , his forecasted vote share is 63 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lion ’ s share of Illinois ’ s 54 statewide delegates .
Sanders is projected to win an average of 33 percent of the vote — a far cry from the 49 percent he earned in the Illinois primary in 2016 , when he narrowly lost to Hillary Clinton by just 2 points .
As for Illinois ’ s remaining 101 pledged delegates , they are allocated based on the result of each of the state ’ s 18 congressional districts .
Biden leads by at least 16 points in every district , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state .
But Sanders should also clear the 15 percent delegate threshold in every district , which means he should pick up at least some delegates .
As in other states , Biden ’ s best districts are the ones where black voters make up a large share of the electorate — understandable given his strong support among black voters .
He is projected to surpass 70 percent in the three Illinois seats that are at least 45 percent black — the 1st and 2nd Congressional districts centered on Chicago ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ central and west Chicago .
But Biden also outperforms his statewide projected vote share in two fairly white districts far from Chicago — the 17th Congressional District along the Iowa border and the 12th Congressional District by Missouri .
Both seats have large percentages of whites without a college degree , which as a group , has backed Biden more this year than Sanders .
Sanders doesn ’ t lead anywhere , but he is notably stronger in some seats .
Perhaps unsurprisingly , given his strength with Hispanic voters , his three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Illinois — the 4th Congressional District ( 70 percent Hispanic ) , the 3rd Congressional District and the 8th Congressional District ( both about 30 percent Hispanic ) , which are all in and around Chicago .
Sanders also tends to have higher projected vote shares in more affluent districts , which helps explain his numbers in the 5th and 6th Congressional districts ( also in the Chicago area ) , as well as the 14th Congressional District ( which is on the periphery of Chicago ) .
These three seats rank @ @ @ @ @ @ @ median income .
Turning to the east , Ohio is also voting on Tuesday , and it has 136 pledged delegates up for grabs .
Our forecast gives Biden a 97 in 100 shot of victory , leaving just a 3 in 100 shot for Sanders .
The statewide vote will allocate 47 of the Buckeye State ’ s delegates , and Biden ’ s average forecasted vote share in our model is 59 percent compared to Sanders ’ s 34 percent .
The other 89 Ohio delegates come from the state ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seems on his way to winning every seat .
Based on the model ’ s average forecasted vote share displayed in the table below , Biden leads by 17 points or more in every district , though Sanders should clear the 15 percent threshold across the map , picking up some delegates .
Biden ’ s strongest districts in Ohio once again tend to have the largest share of black voters , making his best seat the 11th Congressional District , which covers parts of Cleveland and Akron and is the only majority-black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two districts where he ’ s above 60 percent are both at least 20 percent African American — the 1st Congressional District ( partly in Cincinnati ) and the 3rd Congressional District ( Columbus ) .
Still , Biden is well-positioned to win the remaining districts , which are all at least 75 percent white .
Sanders ’ s best seats in Ohio tend to be whiter and somewhat more affluent .
They are somewhat geographically disparate , however : His most promising seats , per our forecast , are the 16th Congressional @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 5th Congressional District in the northwest corner of the state ( the only seat Sanders carried in the 2016 Ohio primary ) ; and the 12th Congressional District north of Columbus in the center of the state .
If the Michigan result last Tuesday is any sign , the two Midwestern contests in Illinois and Ohio will likely produce comfortable wins for Biden .
It ’ s just hard to find good news for Sanders — he looks unlikely to have a shot at winning a district in either state , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happen if these primaries are to help him turn things around .

Last Tuesday, former Vice President Joe Biden scored a big win in Michigan, and he now finds himself as the overwhelming favorite in FiveThirtyEight’s forecast with a greater than 99 in 100 shot of winning a majority of pledged delegates. Biden’s strength in Michigan, as well as in Minnesota on Super Tuesday, augurs well for his chances, too, against Sen. Bernie Sanders in the two contests happening in the Midwest on Tuesday: Illinois and Ohio. These states have the sixth and seventh-most pledged delegates, respectfully, of any state or territory, making them particularly important in the delegate battle between Biden and Sanders. (You can read more about what our forecast shows for Tuesday’s other two contests, Arizona and Florida, in our Sun Belt preview here.)
Biden is a favorite in both — based on his performance elsewhere in the Midwest and the fact that he’s up by at least 20 percentage points in our polling averages of both Illinois and Ohio. But there’s still some uncertainty clouding our view of these races because we don’t actually have much recent polling in either state — just three March polls in Illinois and just one March survey in Ohio. So our forecast is relying quite a bit on what has happened in previous contests and the demographics of both states.
Let’s start with Illinois; with 155 pledged delegates at stake, it’s the larger of the two primaries. Our forecast gives Biden a better than 99 in 100 shot of finishing first. On average, his forecasted vote share is 63 percent, which means he should win the lion’s share of Illinois’s 54 statewide delegates. Sanders is projected to win an average of 33 percent of the vote — a far cry from the 49 percent he earned in the Illinois primary in 2016, when he narrowly lost to Hillary Clinton by just 2 points.
As for Illinois’s remaining 101 pledged delegates, they are allocated based on the result of each of the state’s 18 congressional districts. Biden leads by at least 16 points in every district, which speaks to his overall advantage in the state. But Sanders should also clear the 15 percent delegate threshold in every district, which means he should pick up at least some delegates.
Biden holds large leads across Illinois Average forecasted vote share for the top two Democratic presidential candidates in Illinois congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 6 p.m. on March 15 District Biden Sanders IL-01 72% 25% IL-02 73 23 IL-03 58 38 IL-04 56 40 IL-05 57 38 IL-06 58 36 IL-07 71 25 IL-08 59 37 IL-09 60 35 IL-10 61 35 IL-11 61 35 IL-12 66 30 IL-13 63 33 IL-14 59 37 IL-15 62 34 IL-16 61 35 IL-17 64 32 IL-18 61 34 State 63 33
As in other states, Biden’s best districts are the ones where black voters make up a large share of the electorate — understandable given his strong support among black voters. He is projected to surpass 70 percent in the three Illinois seats that are at least 45 percent black — the 1st and 2nd Congressional districts centered on Chicago’s southside and the 7th Congressional District in central and west Chicago. But Biden also outperforms his statewide projected vote share in two fairly white districts far from Chicago — the 17th Congressional District along the Iowa border and the 12th Congressional District by Missouri. Both seats have large percentages of whites without a college degree, which as a group, has backed Biden more this year than Sanders.
Sanders doesn’t lead anywhere, but he is notably stronger in some seats. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given his strength with Hispanic voters, his three best districts have the largest Hispanic populations in Illinois — the 4th Congressional District (70 percent Hispanic), the 3rd Congressional District and the 8th Congressional District (both about 30 percent Hispanic), which are all in and around Chicago. Sanders also tends to have higher projected vote shares in more affluent districts, which helps explain his numbers in the 5th and 6th Congressional districts (also in the Chicago area), as well as the 14th Congressional District (which is on the periphery of Chicago). These three seats rank as the wealthiest districts in Illinois by median income.
Turning to the east, Ohio is also voting on Tuesday, and it has 136 pledged delegates up for grabs. Our forecast gives Biden a 97 in 100 shot of victory, leaving just a 3 in 100 shot for Sanders. The statewide vote will allocate 47 of the Buckeye State’s delegates, and Biden’s average forecasted vote share in our model is 59 percent compared to Sanders’s 34 percent.
The other 89 Ohio delegates come from the state’s 16 congressional districts, and Biden seems on his way to winning every seat. Based on the model’s average forecasted vote share displayed in the table below, Biden leads by 17 points or more in every district, though Sanders should clear the 15 percent threshold across the map, picking up some delegates.
Biden is up big in Ohio Average forecasted vote share for the top two Democratic presidential candidates in Ohio congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 6 p.m. on March 15 District Biden Sanders OH-01 61% 32% OH-02 58 35 OH-03 63 30 OH-04 57 36 OH-05 56 37 OH-06 57 36 OH-07 56 36 OH-08 56 36 OH-09 59 34 OH-10 60 33 OH-11 68 25 OH-12 56 36 OH-13 58 35 OH-14 56 36 OH-15 56 36 OH-16 54 38 State 59 34
Biden’s strongest districts in Ohio once again tend to have the largest share of black voters, making his best seat the 11th Congressional District, which covers parts of Cleveland and Akron and is the only majority-black district in the state. The other two districts where he’s above 60 percent are both at least 20 percent African American — the 1st Congressional District (partly in Cincinnati) and the 3rd Congressional District (Columbus). Still, Biden is well-positioned to win the remaining districts, which are all at least 75 percent white.
Sanders’s best seats in Ohio tend to be whiter and somewhat more affluent. They are somewhat geographically disparate, however: His most promising seats, per our forecast, are the 16th Congressional District, mostly south of Cleveland; the 5th Congressional District in the northwest corner of the state (the only seat Sanders carried in the 2016 Ohio primary); and the 12th Congressional District north of Columbus in the center of the state.
If the Michigan result last Tuesday is any sign, the two Midwestern contests in Illinois and Ohio will likely produce comfortable wins for Biden. It’s just hard to find good news for Sanders — he looks unlikely to have a shot at winning a district in either state, and he’ll need something unexpected to happen if these primaries are to help him turn things around.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden and Sanders debate amid pandemic


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-16--Why Sanders May Start Losing More Latino Voters To Biden

Over the course of the Democratic primary , Latinos have been a crucial part of Sen. Bernie Sanders ’ s base .
His campaign has made a concerted effort to win their support , with resounding success thus far : According to entrance and exit polls , he won 50 percent of Latinos in Nevada , 50 percent in California and 39 percent in Texas .
And three of the states that vote on Tuesday — Arizona , Florida , and Illinois — have large Latino or Hispanic populations , which could be good news for Sanders .
But there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with this group in the next round of primaries — and at least part of the racial divide that ’ s emerged in the contests so far may shift .
As the newly dominant national front-runner , former Vice President Joe Biden may have new openings to win over Latinos in Arizona and Illinois — in particular , older Latinos .
Additionally , Sanders is especially weak among Hispanic voters in Florida , where his support for socialism and praise of aspects of the communist revolution in Cuba may have hurt him .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ among Latino voters in states like Washington , but it ’ s not like Latino voters overwhelmingly dislike Biden , ” said Matt Barreto , a professor of political science at the University of California , Los Angeles , and the co-founder of Latino Decisions .
“ The question is whether Latino voters start seeing Biden as the true front-runner in this next round of states and start to shift toward him , or if they are staying with Sanders.
” Sanders still has a good shot among Latinos in Illinois and Arizona @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders win Illinois or Arizona — according to our model , Biden has a 49 in 50 ( 98 percent ) chance of winning Illinois , and a 29 in 30 ( 97 percent ) chance of winning Arizona — but Sanders still seems likely to outperform Biden among Latinos in both states .
In Illinois , a new Emerson College poll showed Sanders leading Biden 56 percent to 42 percent among Hispanic or Latino likely voters , despite Biden ’ s 20-point lead in the state overall ; Gravis Marketing found a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Arizona — one sponsored by Telemundo and the other by Univision/Arizona State University — each gave Sanders a single-digit lead among Hispanic or Latino Democrats there .
A third Arizona poll , by local firm OH Predictive Insights , did give Biden a big lead among both Hispanic or Latino Democrats and Democrats overall , but it was conducted almost entirely before former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren dropped out of the race .
Another good sign for Sanders : The Latino populations in these two states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Florida , more similar to other heavily Latino states where Sanders has already performed well , such as California and Nevada .
That ’ s helpful for Sanders because he is extremely popular among young voters , including Latinos — he won 71 percent of Latinos under the age of 30 in California , according to the exit polls .
And it will likely be difficult to convince many of those younger supporters to switch their allegiance to Biden , according to Vincent Casillas , a Democratic strategist who lives in Chicago and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s 2008 presidential campaign .
Casillas pointed out that Sanders has the support of several progressive Latino politicians from Illinois — most prominently , Rep. Chuy Garcia — who are popular among younger voters .
And although Casillas is a Biden supporter , he admitted that Sanders has a big edge when it comes to voter outreach among Latinos in Illinois .
“ The age divide is going to be a big problem for Biden here — there ’ s no way to sugarcoat it , ” Casillas said .
“ Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and energizing young Latinos here in Illinois .
He ’ s way ahead of Biden in terms of outreach to this group.
” But Biden has at least one advantage in Illinois that plays less of a role in other states — his affiliation with Obama , who lived in Chicago for years and is still very popular with the Latino community there , according to Casillas and others .
“ Obama is still number-one in Illinois and so I think you may see some Latinos , maybe older Latinos in particular , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign because of his affiliation with Obama and the fact that he ’ s winning other states.
” In Arizona , meanwhile , an eagerness to support the candidate who can beat Trump may nudge some Latinos into Biden ’ s column .
Eduardo Sainz , the Arizona state director for Mi Familiar Vota , a Latino civic engagement organization , said that Latino Democrats in Arizona , like Democrats across the country , are eager to support a candidate who can win a general election against Trump , because so many Latinos @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Many people are feeling a lot of fear under this administration , so I ’ ve seen that defeating Trump is a top priority for many Latinos in Arizona , ” he said .
And voting for Biden is likely no big stretch for Latino Democrats .
Even if he ’ s not quite as beloved as Sanders , most Latino Democrats in Arizona like the former vice president just fine .
In a December poll by Equis Labs , 50 percent of them had a favorable opinion of Sanders , while just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden was viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 27 percent .
But Sainz has also observed an age divide among volunteers for his organization that leads him to believe that many young Latinos will continue to support Sanders .
“ From our older volunteers , I am increasingly hearing that they want to make sure that we beat Trump and based on what they ’ re hearing they think Biden has a better and better chance , so their vote is going to Biden , ” he said .
“ But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undecided or voting for Sanders.
” Even if Sanders wins Latinos in Arizona and Illinois , though , his victories might be less decisive than in states like California .
“ Now that Biden has gained front-runner status , I don ’ t think we ’ ll see as many dramatic wins for Sanders among Latinos , ” Barreto said .
And perhaps most importantly , Biden is still forecasted to win both states in spite of Sanders ’ s strength with Latinos .
But Sanders seems likely to lose Hispanic voters in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters are likely to contribute to a massive Biden win in Florida .
Biden is leading Sanders there by an average of more than 40 percentage points and has a > 99 percent chance of winning there according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast .
And according to most recent polls , Biden is leading among Hispanic or Latino Floridians by large margins ( if not quite as large as statewide ) — in stark contrast to other states .
It ’ s a good reminder that Hispanic or Latino voters nationwide aren ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their political views often vary along other demographic dimensions , such as age and ethnic origin .
For instance , the Hispanic population in Florida skews older — 35 percent are older than 44 , compared with 24 percent in each of Arizona and Illinois — putting Sanders at a natural disadvantage .
And in Arizona and Illinois — as well as California , Nevada and Texas — the Latino population is overwhelmingly Mexican American .
But Florida is far more diverse .
A plurality ( 29 percent ) of the Hispanic population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there are hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan Americans and Nicaraguan Americans as well .
Sanders ’ s brand of democratic socialism is distinct from the policies of former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez , but he did support Nicaragua ’ s communist government in the 1980s .
And according to Barreto , some of the Hispanic population in Florida may be “ very uncomfortable with the socialism that has been practiced in their countries in Latin America , ” and could be wary of supporting a self-identified democratic socialist like Sanders .
Sanders certainly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when he told 60 Minutes recently that “ it ’ s unfair to simply say everything [ former Cuban President Fidel Castro did ] is bad , ” citing Castro ’ s literacy program .
The remarks led to a swift backlash , especially in Florida .
Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell , one of two Hispanic Democrats who represent Florida in Congress , tweeted , “ I find Senator Bernie Sanders ’ comments on Castro ’ s Cuba absolutely unacceptable.
” Two weeks later , she endorsed Biden .
Overall , Sanders now looks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for president , and cracks have emerged in his previously solid base of Latino support , but whether Latino voters move decisively into Biden ’ s column on Tuesday remains to be seen .
If it does happen , it could be a symbolic final blow to Sanders ’ s campaign .
Confidence Interval : The First Female President Will Be A Republican

Over the course of the Democratic primary, Latinos have been a crucial part of Sen. Bernie Sanders’s base. His campaign has made a concerted effort to win their support, with resounding success thus far: According to entrance and exit polls, he won 50 percent of Latinos in Nevada, 50 percent in California and 39 percent in Texas. And three of the states that vote on Tuesday — Arizona, Florida, and Illinois — have large Latino or Hispanic populations, which could be good news for Sanders.
But there are signs that he may lose strength with this group in the next round of primaries — and at least part of the racial divide that’s emerged in the contests so far may shift. As the newly dominant national front-runner, former Vice President Joe Biden may have new openings to win over Latinos in Arizona and Illinois — in particular, older Latinos. Additionally, Sanders is especially weak among Hispanic voters in Florida, where his support for socialism and praise of aspects of the communist revolution in Cuba may have hurt him.
“Sanders is continuing to perform well among Latino voters in states like Washington, but it’s not like Latino voters overwhelmingly dislike Biden,” said Matt Barreto, a professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles, and the co-founder of Latino Decisions. “The question is whether Latino voters start seeing Biden as the true front-runner in this next round of states and start to shift toward him, or if they are staying with Sanders.”
Sanders still has a good shot among Latinos in Illinois and Arizona
It might not be enough to help Sanders win Illinois or Arizona — according to our model, Biden has a 49 in 50 (98 percent) chance of winning Illinois, and a 29 in 30 (97 percent) chance of winning Arizona — but Sanders still seems likely to outperform Biden among Latinos in both states. In Illinois, a new Emerson College poll showed Sanders leading Biden 56 percent to 42 percent among Hispanic or Latino likely voters, despite Biden’s 20-point lead in the state overall; Gravis Marketing found a similar split. And two recent polls of Arizona — one sponsored by Telemundo and the other by Univision/Arizona State University — each gave Sanders a single-digit lead among Hispanic or Latino Democrats there. A third Arizona poll, by local firm OH Predictive Insights, did give Biden a big lead among both Hispanic or Latino Democrats and Democrats overall, but it was conducted almost entirely before former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren dropped out of the race.
Another good sign for Sanders: The Latino populations in these two states skew young compared with a state like Florida, more similar to other heavily Latino states where Sanders has already performed well, such as California and Nevada. That’s helpful for Sanders because he is extremely popular among young voters, including Latinos — he won 71 percent of Latinos under the age of 30 in California, according to the exit polls. And it will likely be difficult to convince many of those younger supporters to switch their allegiance to Biden, according to Vincent Casillas, a Democratic strategist who lives in Chicago and worked on Hispanic communications on Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden and Sanders debate amid pandemic
Casillas pointed out that Sanders has the support of several progressive Latino politicians from Illinois — most prominently, Rep. Chuy Garcia — who are popular among younger voters. And although Casillas is a Biden supporter, he admitted that Sanders has a big edge when it comes to voter outreach among Latinos in Illinois. “The age divide is going to be a big problem for Biden here — there’s no way to sugarcoat it,” Casillas said. “Sanders has done a great job of organizing and energizing young Latinos here in Illinois. He’s way ahead of Biden in terms of outreach to this group.”
But Biden has at least one advantage in Illinois that plays less of a role in other states — his affiliation with Obama, who lived in Chicago for years and is still very popular with the Latino community there, according to Casillas and others. “Obama is still number-one in Illinois and so I think you may see some Latinos, maybe older Latinos in particular, just naturally migrate toward Biden’s campaign because of his affiliation with Obama and the fact that he’s winning other states.”
In Arizona, meanwhile, an eagerness to support the candidate who can beat Trump may nudge some Latinos into Biden’s column. Eduardo Sainz, the Arizona state director for Mi Familiar Vota, a Latino civic engagement organization, said that Latino Democrats in Arizona, like Democrats across the country, are eager to support a candidate who can win a general election against Trump, because so many Latinos are first or second-generation immigrants. “Many people are feeling a lot of fear under this administration, so I’ve seen that defeating Trump is a top priority for many Latinos in Arizona,” he said.
And voting for Biden is likely no big stretch for Latino Democrats. Even if he’s not quite as beloved as Sanders, most Latino Democrats in Arizona like the former vice president just fine. In a December poll by Equis Labs, 50 percent of them had a favorable opinion of Sanders, while just 14 percent had an unfavorable one; Biden was viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 27 percent.
But Sainz has also observed an age divide among volunteers for his organization that leads him to believe that many young Latinos will continue to support Sanders. “From our older volunteers, I am increasingly hearing that they want to make sure that we beat Trump and based on what they’re hearing they think Biden has a better and better chance, so their vote is going to Biden,” he said. “But the younger demographic are pretty much either undecided or voting for Sanders.”
Even if Sanders wins Latinos in Arizona and Illinois, though, his victories might be less decisive than in states like California. “Now that Biden has gained front-runner status, I don’t think we’ll see as many dramatic wins for Sanders among Latinos,” Barreto said. And perhaps most importantly, Biden is still forecasted to win both states in spite of Sanders’s strength with Latinos.
But Sanders seems likely to lose Hispanic voters in Florida
On the other hand, Hispanic voters are likely to contribute to a massive Biden win in Florida. Biden is leading Sanders there by an average of more than 40 percentage points and has a >99 percent chance of winning there according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. And according to most recent polls, Biden is leading among Hispanic or Latino Floridians by large margins (if not quite as large as statewide) — in stark contrast to other states.
Biden leads among Hispanic voters in Florida Top Democratic candidates’ support among poll respondents who identified as Hispanic or Latino (depending on the poll) in seven recent Florida polls Pollster Dates Biden Sanders Mason-Dixon/Telemundo March 4-7 48% 37% Florida Atlantic University March 5-7 45 25 St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics March 6-8 68 17 University of North Florida March 5-10 65 28 Gravis Marketing March 10-12 49 46 Emerson College March 11-12 64 28 Point Blank Political March 11-13 45 41 Includes the most recent poll by each pollster that has surveyed the race since Super Tuesday. Source: Polls
It’s a good reminder that Hispanic or Latino voters nationwide aren’t a monolith. Like other voters, their political views often vary along other demographic dimensions, such as age and ethnic origin. For instance, the Hispanic population in Florida skews older — 35 percent are older than 44, compared with 24 percent in each of Arizona and Illinois — putting Sanders at a natural disadvantage.
And in Arizona and Illinois — as well as California, Nevada and Texas — the Latino population is overwhelmingly Mexican American. But Florida is far more diverse. A plurality (29 percent) of the Hispanic population there identifies as Cuban American, and there are hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan Americans and Nicaraguan Americans as well. Sanders’s brand of democratic socialism is distinct from the policies of former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, but he did support Nicaragua’s communist government in the 1980s. And according to Barreto, some of the Hispanic population in Florida may be “very uncomfortable with the socialism that has been practiced in their countries in Latin America,” and could be wary of supporting a self-identified democratic socialist like Sanders.
Sanders certainly did himself no favors among Cuban Americans when he told 60 Minutes recently that “it’s unfair to simply say everything [former Cuban President Fidel Castro did] is bad,” citing Castro’s literacy program. The remarks led to a swift backlash, especially in Florida. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, one of two Hispanic Democrats who represent Florida in Congress, tweeted, “I find Senator Bernie Sanders’ comments on Castro’s Cuba absolutely unacceptable.” Two weeks later, she endorsed Biden.
Overall, Sanders now looks extremely unlikely to win the Democratic nomination for president, and cracks have emerged in his previously solid base of Latino support, but whether Latino voters move decisively into Biden’s column on Tuesday remains to be seen. If it does happen, it could be a symbolic final blow to Sanders’s campaign.
Confidence Interval: The First Female President Will Be A Republican
Confidence Interval: The 1st female president will be a Republican


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-15--What Went Down At The First Biden vs. Sanders Debate

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fivethirtyeight--2020-03-16--Politics Podcast: How Uncertainty Around The Coronavirus Affects Our Life And Politics

The spread of the new coronavirus has upended American life overnight .
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast @ @ @ @ @ much we don ’ t know about the crisis when trying to assess its impact @ @ @ @ @ They also discuss how the virus is affecting plans of the states that were planning @ @ @ @ @ Tuesday .
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “ play ” button @ @ @ @ @ or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform @ @ @ @ @ to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and @ @ @ @ @ discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes .
Have a @ @ @ @ @ for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
Get in touch by email , @ @ @ @ @ comments .

The spread of the new coronavirus has upended American life overnight. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how much we don’t know about the crisis when trying to assess its impact on life and politics. They also discuss how the virus is affecting plans in the states that were planning on holding primary elections on Tuesday.
UPDATE (March 16, 2020, 8:00 p.m.): A judge denied the Ohio governor’s request to postpone the primary election, so, pending an appeal, voting in Ohio is back on for Tuesday. We have removed a disclaimer in the podcast that said Ohio would not vote in person on Tuesday.
UPDATE (March 17, 2020, 11:25 a.m.): After a late-night state Supreme Court ruling, in-person voting in Ohio is suspended for Tuesday.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Coronavirus, Uncertainty and Politics
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-16--Primary Polling Places Are Full Of Older People … And The Coronavirus

On Friday , an exhausted-looking election official in Arizona was speaking at a press conference about the state ’ s upcoming primary when he gave up , mid-speech .
“ I ’ m sorry , I can ’ t do this , ” said Maricopa County election day director Scott Jarrett , before he left the platform , and the room .
It had been a difficult week .
Arizona election officials were organizing a vote while also figuring out how to protect voters from the novel coronavirus .
State officials fought in court over the legality of mail-in ballots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of them schools and nursing homes — pulled out of participating in Tuesday ’ s primary .
So how ‘ bout this election in the middle of a pandemic ?
The novel coronavirus is capable of spreading through human contact and objects we ’ ve touched .
It hits older people harder .
Public health experts are advising that everyone cancel large gatherings to prevent its spread .
Which leaves something like a primary election , where an overwhelmingly older electorate files through lines , touches shared pens , and coughs on each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yet 26 states still need to vote .
Arizona isn ’ t the only state struggling to figure out what to do .
Wyoming will no longer have an in-person caucus — it ’ s now vote by mail only .
Louisiana and Georgia have postponed their primaries .
And there ’ s good reason for those states to change plans .
Primary elections really are a setting at which coronavirus could spread , said Sam Scarpino , a professor of environmental sciences at Northeastern University .
He studies infectious diseases , models @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If a state isn ’ t postponing the primary , it should be taking the risks seriously and making plans to reduce transmission — regularly cleaning and disinfecting shared equipment like voting machines throughout the day , and creating more physical distance between voters .
The CDC made similar recommendations — adding that the first line of defense should be encouraging ways to vote while being socially distant , such as vote-by-mail , early voting , voting during off-peak hours and drive-up voting .
“ The best solution to protect voters – especially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voting , ” Maimuna Majumder , a faculty member at Harvard Medical School ’ s Computational Health Informatics Program , wrote to me in an email .
Just don ’ t lick the envelope , she added .
But it ’ s not going to be easy to reduce crowding and increase cleaning when the number of polling places is shrinking and disinfecting supplies are scarce .
About 130 polling places in Ohio have dropped out because they were also the homes of vulnerable populations , according to Ohio Democratic Party Chairman David @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were being arranged and voters contacted about the changes , but it ’ s likely a lot of Ohioans will show up Tuesday to find a notice telling them they need to go to a different location .
In Arizona , Maricopa County is dealing with the problem by establishing 111 new Vote Anywhere centers beyond the 40 it originally had , where county residents can vote regardless of the location of their house .
The other big problem : poll workers .
There ’ s already a routine shortage of volunteers at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the federal Election Assistance Commission .
During the 2016 elections , for instance , nearly 65 percent of jurisdictions reported difficulty arranging for a sufficient number of poll workers .
What ’ s more , the poll workers themselves are overwhelmingly part of the population most at risk for coronavirus complications .
That same EAC survey collected age data on 53 percent of the poll workers who volunteered in 2016 .
Of that number , 32 percent were from 61 to 70 years old and another 24 percent were 71 or older .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of dying from coronavirus looks like a hockey stick — small for people under the age of 60 , but shooting up fast after that .
The death rate was 3.6 percent for people 60 to 69 years old , 8 percent for those in their 70s and 14.8 percent for people 80 and older .
Death rates in Italy have followed a similar pattern .
So , what to do ?
Volunteers should be given gloves , Scarpino told me .
They should stay home if they have any symptoms of sickness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact they ’ re likely to have with hundreds of people — some of whom have to be assumed to be sick — he thought poll workers fell into a category in which it would be a good idea for them to wear a mask .
( In the U.S. , public health officials have recommended that only sick people , or healthy people caring for the sick , wear masks — largely to ensure there are enough masks available for healthcare workers . )
But one big thing individuals can do to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the age demographics of who works them .
“ If you ’ re in your 20s or 30s , maybe you go volunteer at polling locations and let the retirees stay home , ” Scarpino said .

On Friday, an exhausted-looking election official in Arizona was speaking at a press conference about the state’s upcoming primary when he gave up, mid-speech. “I’m sorry, I can’t do this,” said Maricopa County election day director Scott Jarrett, before he left the platform, and the room. It had been a difficult week. Arizona election officials were organizing a vote while also figuring out how to protect voters from the novel coronavirus. State officials fought in court over the legality of mail-in ballots, and 78 polling places — many of them schools and nursing homes — pulled out of participating in Tuesday’s primary.
So how ‘bout this election in the middle of a pandemic? The novel coronavirus is capable of spreading through human contact and objects we’ve touched. It hits older people harder. Public health experts are advising that everyone cancel large gatherings to prevent its spread. Which leaves something like a primary election, where an overwhelmingly older electorate files through lines, touches shared pens, and coughs on each other, in an awkward spot.
Yet 26 states still need to vote. Arizona isn’t the only state struggling to figure out what to do. Wyoming will no longer have an in-person caucus — it’s now vote by mail only. Louisiana and Georgia have postponed their primaries.
And there’s good reason for those states to change plans. Primary elections really are a setting at which coronavirus could spread, said Sam Scarpino, a professor of environmental sciences at Northeastern University. He studies infectious diseases, models their spread and does outbreak surveillance. If a state isn’t postponing the primary, it should be taking the risks seriously and making plans to reduce transmission — regularly cleaning and disinfecting shared equipment like voting machines throughout the day, and creating more physical distance between voters.
The CDC made similar recommendations — adding that the first line of defense should be encouraging ways to vote while being socially distant, such as vote-by-mail, early voting, voting during off-peak hours and drive-up voting. “The best solution to protect voters – especially older voters – is in fact mail-in voting,” Maimuna Majumder, a faculty member at Harvard Medical School’s Computational Health Informatics Program, wrote to me in an email. Just don’t lick the envelope, she added.
But it’s not going to be easy to reduce crowding and increase cleaning when the number of polling places is shrinking and disinfecting supplies are scarce. About 130 polling places in Ohio have dropped out because they were also the homes of vulnerable populations, according to Ohio Democratic Party Chairman David Pepper. As of Friday, replacements were being arranged and voters contacted about the changes, but it’s likely a lot of Ohioans will show up Tuesday to find a notice telling them they need to go to a different location. In Arizona, Maricopa County is dealing with the problem by establishing 111 new Vote Anywhere centers beyond the 40 it originally had, where county residents can vote regardless of the location of their house.
The other big problem: poll workers. There’s already a routine shortage of volunteers at polling places, according to data from the federal Election Assistance Commission. During the 2016 elections, for instance, nearly 65 percent of jurisdictions reported difficulty arranging for a sufficient number of poll workers.
What’s more, the poll workers themselves are overwhelmingly part of the population most at risk for coronavirus complications. That same EAC survey collected age data on 53 percent of the poll workers who volunteered in 2016. Of that number, 32 percent were from 61 to 70 years old and another 24 percent were 71 or older. Numbers from China suggest that the risk of dying from coronavirus looks like a hockey stick — small for people under the age of 60, but shooting up fast after that. The death rate was 3.6 percent for people 60 to 69 years old, 8 percent for those in their 70s and 14.8 percent for people 80 and older. Death rates in Italy have followed a similar pattern.
So, what to do? Volunteers should be given gloves, Scarpino told me. They should stay home if they have any symptoms of sickness at all. And with all the contact they’re likely to have with hundreds of people — some of whom have to be assumed to be sick — he thought poll workers fell into a category in which it would be a good idea for them to wear a mask. (In the U.S., public health officials have recommended that only sick people, or healthy people caring for the sick, wear masks — largely to ensure there are enough masks available for healthcare workers.)
But one big thing individuals can do to make primaries safer right now is change the age demographics of who works them. “If you’re in your 20s or 30s, maybe you go volunteer at polling locations and let the retirees stay home,” Scarpino said.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-16--Politics Podcast: Biden And Sanders Face Off Amid Coronavirus Crisis

In a late-night edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew reacts to the first one-on-one Democratic primary debate @ @ @ @ @ Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders .
The candidates were sober in discussing the novel coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ as they challenged each other ’ s records in Congress on other issues .
You @ @ @ @ @ by clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player above or by downloading @ @ @ @ @ ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , @ @ @ @ @ The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show @ @ @ @ @ and review on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ good @ @ @ @ @ ?
Get in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments .

In a late-night edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the first one-on-one Democratic primary debate between former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders. The candidates were sober in discussing the novel coronavirus pandemic, but became testy as they challenged each other’s records in Congress on other issues.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden and Sanders debate amid pandemic
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.