fivethirtyeight--2020-09-23--The Partisan, Gender and Generational Differences Among Black Voters Heading Into Election Day

Because most national and state polls include only a small number of Black voters , we rarely get the opportunity to take a detailed look at how preferences and opinions vary within the Black community .
Too often , the national political discourse never gets beyond “ the Black vote , ” full stop .
But this year , at least four different groups — the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape polling initiative , Morning Consult , the African American Research Collaborative and HIT Strategies — are conducting surveys with bigger samples of Black Americans in the run-up to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and systemic racism have dominated stretches of the campaign .
So , with just about 40 days until Nov. 3 , we took a detailed look at where Black voters stand .
Here ’ s what we learned : Candidates are getting similar levels of Black support to past nominees According to recent Democracy Fund polling , 83 percent of likely Black voters favored former Vice President Joe Biden , 10 percent favored President Trump , and 8 percent said they didn ’ t know which candidate they will back .
Recent Morning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing — 84 percent for Biden , 10 percent for Trump and 7 percent undecided or favoring a third-party candidate .
So it seems likely that Biden will end up winning close to 90 percent of Black voters , with Trump winning around 10 percent , as experts on Black voting say undecided Black voters tend to consolidate to the Democrat as we get closer to Election Day .
If that happens again this year , Biden ’ s roughly 80-point margin over Trump among Black voters would be fairly typical for U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Trump appears to be turning some white people against him in part because of his controversial racial comments but he hasn ’ t really lost any Black support ( and he might even do a bit better this year than he did in 2016 with Black voters ) .
Of course , that ’ s largely because he had so little Black support to begin with — there isn ’ t much room to do worse .
But there is a core bloc of about 10 percent of Black Americans who are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Trump .
Indeed , the 2020 numbers suggest that it might be hard for Democrats to replicate the 90-point margin among Black voters they had in 2008 and 2012 with Barack Obama running as the first-ever Black major party presidential nominee .
Protests and the Harris pick didn ’ t have big , long-lasting effects Neither the protests in the wake of the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in late May nor the selection of Kamala Harris , the first Black and Asian American vice-presidential nominee , resulted in big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black support .
That ’ s not to say there ’ s been absolutely no movement in the Biden-Trump race among Black voters .
Biden ’ s biggest lead among Black voters came throughout June , following Floyd ’ s death and the early days of the protests against police brutality .
That makes sense : Scholars have found that because of past experiences with discrimination and prejudice , Black people are more likely than other racial and ethnic groups to view their fate in a collective way .
The Floyd killing and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ systemic racism against Black people , particularly their treatment by police , likely increased feelings of collective identity among Black Americans , given the renewed salience of issues surrounding policing in Black communities .
The selection of Harris as the first-ever Black woman on a major-party presidential ticket didn ’ t really change Biden ’ s standing among Black voters at all , according to the Nationscape polling .
That ’ s not surprising or necessarily a sign that she was a bad pick .
First of all , Biden didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of his Black vote share — he was already in the 80s by mid-August .
Also , Harris ’ s selection probably wasn ’ t as much about boosting Biden with Black voters this November in the first place .
The pick addressed other goals for the former vice president , such as making the Democratic ticket more balanced in terms of age , gender and race ; recognizing Black women for long one of most Democractic-leaning demographic groups in the electorate ; and recognizing Black voters overall for their role in boosting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ primary .
According to the Nationscape survey of likely voters from Aug. 27 to Sept. 9 , Biden led Trump among Black men 76 percent to 17 percent ; Biden led among Black women 87 percent to 4 percent .
This is also pretty standard .
Black men , like men in most other demographic groups , tend to be more Republican-leaning than their female counterparts .
Trump won about 14 percent of the Black male vote in 2016 , according to the Pew Research Center , while his support from Black women @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gap is favorable to Biden in an important way — Black women tend to vote at higher rates than Black men ( 64 percent of voting-eligible Black women turned out in 2016 , compared to 54 percent of Black men ) .
Women generally vote more than men , but the turnout gap between Black women and Black men has long been larger than that between white women and white men .
Black youth are more skeptical of Biden , the Democratic Party Among white likely voters , Biden ’ s best margins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 18 to 29 years old ) .
But among Black likely voters , Biden ’ s biggest margins are among older cohorts .
And when you conduct polling among all Black adults ( as opposed to just likely voters ) , as HIT , AARC and Democracy Fund have all done this year , this age gap is even wider .
Among all respondents , older Black people support Biden by a wide margin while younger Black people are more supportive of Trump .
Moreover , younger Black respondents are much more inclined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they don ’ t know which candidate they ’ ll support ( which may explain at least somewhat why they indicated that they are unlikely to vote in the race ) .
The polling by both HIT and AARC in particular tell a fairly clear story : Older Black people are more clearly partisan Democrats than younger Black people , both viewing the Democratic Party and its leaders much more favorably than younger Black people and viewing the GOP with more disdain than younger Black people .
Among Black registered voters age 50 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thought congressional Democrats were doing a good job , compared to just 22 percent who thought congressional Democrats were doing a poor job , according to a HIT survey conducted in June .
But among Black voters under age 50 , only about half ( 54 percent ) approved of congressional Democrats , while 36 percent disapproved .
Black voters under 50 ( 57 percent ) were more likely than those 50 and over ( 40 percent ) to agree with the statement , “ The Democratic Party takes Black people for granted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Among Black people over 65 , 77 percent had a favorable view of Harris and just 10 percent viewed her unfavorably , according to HIT polling conducted in late August and early September ( after her selection as Biden ’ s running mate ) .
Among Black people ages 25 to 34 , 28 percent viewed her favorably and 44 percent unfavorably .
( The rest were neutral or didn ’ t know . )
Similarly , in AARC polling , older Black Americans express more anti-Trump views and more pro-Democratic Party views @ @ @ @ @ @ @ younger counterparts .
They also seem more enthusiastic to vote , in part because they seem to view voting as part of lifting up the broader Black community .
“ Unlike their elders , who came up with fresh memories of civil rights activism , young folks aren ’ t willing to tolerate voting for the ‘ lesser of two evils.
’ They told us they would just as soon stay home , ” said Sam Fulwood , a fellow at American University ’ s Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters as part of a research project .
In an interview , Terrance Woodbury of HIT described younger Black voters as having “ systemic cynicism ” towards institutions like the Democratic Party .
“ There is a level of disenfranchisement and disengagement , ” he added .
Woodbury also argued that some of Trump ’ s messages have resonated with younger Black voters in particular .
In focus groups , according to Woodbury , younger Black voters often mention the criminal justice reform bill that the president signed into law , his support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the low Black unemployment rate before the coronavirus outbreak .
These differing views among Black Americans may not just be about age .
When looking at all Black respondents ( not just likely voters ) , Biden had more support among Black voters who were college-educated and those with higher-incomes , according to the Nationscape data .
So it might be that more established Black people ( older , more educated , higher income ) are more satisfied with the Democratic Party than other Black Americans .
We ’ re not sure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , because it doesn ’ t appear that Trump is going to win a big share of younger Black voters , those without degrees or those with lower incomes .
But a lack of enthusiasm for Biden might show up in terms of turnout .
It ’ s really hard to judge turnout at this stage But the safe bet is that Black turnout won ’ t match white turnout , as in previous years ( the exceptions being 2008 and 2012 ) .
If Black Americans are really galvanized by the protests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Trump , their voting rates will probably be the biggest indicator .
In 2012 , not only did the Black voting rate reach a record high of 67 percent , but Black voting rates were equal to white voting rates .
In 2016 and then 2018 , Black voting rates were a few percentage points behind white ones , as is the historical pattern .
It is really hard to gauge Black turnout from the polls we have now .
Even when Obama was on the ballot , younger Black people voted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — but across all ethnicities and races , younger people vote at lower rates .
So the surveys above noting that younger Black people are not as supportive of Biden and Democrats don ’ t themselves predict lower turnout .
That said , the evidence we have indicates that super-high Black turnout was related to the chance to elect and then reelect the first-ever Black president .
That is not happening in 2020 , so it ’ s more likely that Black voting patterns will resemble 2004 or 2016 than 2008 .

Because most national and state polls include only a small number of Black voters, we rarely get the opportunity to take a detailed look at how preferences and opinions vary within the Black community. Too often, the national political discourse never gets beyond “the Black vote,” full stop.
But this year, at least four different groups — the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape polling initiative, Morning Consult, the African American Research Collaborative and HIT Strategies — are conducting surveys with bigger samples of Black Americans in the run-up to the 2020 election. And issues of race and systemic racism have dominated stretches of the campaign.
So, with just about 40 days until Nov. 3, we took a detailed look at where Black voters stand. Here’s what we learned:
Candidates are getting similar levels of Black support to past nominees
According to recent Democracy Fund polling, 83 percent of likely Black voters favored former Vice President Joe Biden, 10 percent favored President Trump, and 8 percent said they didn’t know which candidate they will back. Recent Morning Consult polling found almost exactly the same thing — 84 percent for Biden, 10 percent for Trump and 7 percent undecided or favoring a third-party candidate.
So it seems likely that Biden will end up winning close to 90 percent of Black voters, with Trump winning around 10 percent, as experts on Black voting say undecided Black voters tend to consolidate to the Democrat as we get closer to Election Day. If that happens again this year, Biden’s roughly 80-point margin over Trump among Black voters would be fairly typical for U.S. presidential elections.
It’s interesting that Trump appears to be turning some white people against him in part because of his controversial racial comments but he hasn’t really lost any Black support (and he might even do a bit better this year than he did in 2016 with Black voters). Of course, that’s largely because he had so little Black support to begin with — there isn’t much room to do worse. But there is a core bloc of about 10 percent of Black Americans who are Republican-leaning and they appear to be sticking with Trump. Indeed, the 2020 numbers suggest that it might be hard for Democrats to replicate the 90-point margin among Black voters they had in 2008 and 2012 with Barack Obama running as the first-ever Black major party presidential nominee.
Protests and the Harris pick didn’t have big, long-lasting effects
Neither the protests in the wake of the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in late May nor the selection of Kamala Harris, the first Black and Asian American vice-presidential nominee, resulted in big and durable boosts in Biden’s Black support.
That’s not to say there’s been absolutely no movement in the Biden-Trump race among Black voters. Biden’s biggest lead among Black voters came throughout June, following Floyd’s death and the early days of the protests against police brutality. That makes sense: Scholars have found that because of past experiences with discrimination and prejudice, Black people are more likely than other racial and ethnic groups to view their fate in a collective way. The Floyd killing and the weeks of intense national discussion about systemic racism against Black people, particularly their treatment by police, likely increased feelings of collective identity among Black Americans, given the renewed salience of issues surrounding policing in Black communities.
The selection of Harris as the first-ever Black woman on a major-party presidential ticket didn’t really change Biden’s standing among Black voters at all, according to the Nationscape polling. That’s not surprising or necessarily a sign that she was a bad pick. First of all, Biden didn’t have much room to grow in terms of his Black vote share — he was already in the 80s by mid-August. Also, Harris’s selection probably wasn’t as much about boosting Biden with Black voters this November in the first place. The pick addressed other goals for the former vice president, such as making the Democratic ticket more balanced in terms of age, gender and race; recognizing Black women for long one of most Democractic-leaning demographic groups in the electorate; and recognizing Black voters overall for their role in boosting Biden during this year’s Democratic primary.
There is a substantial gender gap
According to the Nationscape survey of likely voters from Aug. 27 to Sept. 9, Biden led Trump among Black men 76 percent to 17 percent; Biden led among Black women 87 percent to 4 percent. This is also pretty standard. Black men, like men in most other demographic groups, tend to be more Republican-leaning than their female counterparts. Trump won about 14 percent of the Black male vote in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center, while his support from Black women was virtually nonexistent.
But this gender gap is favorable to Biden in an important way — Black women tend to vote at higher rates than Black men (64 percent of voting-eligible Black women turned out in 2016, compared to 54 percent of Black men). Women generally vote more than men, but the turnout gap between Black women and Black men has long been larger than that between white women and white men.
Black youth are more skeptical of Biden, the Democratic Party
Among white likely voters, Biden’s best margins are with the youngest cohort (those 18 to 29 years old). But among Black likely voters, Biden’s biggest margins are among older cohorts.
And when you conduct polling among all Black adults (as opposed to just likely voters), as HIT, AARC and Democracy Fund have all done this year, this age gap is even wider. Among all respondents, older Black people support Biden by a wide margin while younger Black people are more supportive of Trump. Moreover, younger Black respondents are much more inclined than older Black respondents to say that they don’t know which candidate they’ll support (which may explain at least somewhat why they indicated that they are unlikely to vote in the race).
The polling by both HIT and AARC in particular tell a fairly clear story: Older Black people are more clearly partisan Democrats than younger Black people, both viewing the Democratic Party and its leaders much more favorably than younger Black people and viewing the GOP with more disdain than younger Black people. Among Black registered voters age 50 and older, 75 percent said they thought congressional Democrats were doing a good job, compared to just 22 percent who thought congressional Democrats were doing a poor job, according to a HIT survey conducted in June. But among Black voters under age 50, only about half (54 percent) approved of congressional Democrats, while 36 percent disapproved. Black voters under 50 (57 percent) were more likely than those 50 and over (40 percent) to agree with the statement, “The Democratic Party takes Black people for granted,” according to HIT polling.
Among Black people over 65, 77 percent had a favorable view of Harris and just 10 percent viewed her unfavorably, according to HIT polling conducted in late August and early September (after her selection as Biden’s running mate). Among Black people ages 25 to 34, 28 percent viewed her favorably and 44 percent unfavorably. (The rest were neutral or didn’t know.)
Similarly, in AARC polling, older Black Americans express more anti-Trump views and more pro-Democratic Party views on a number of measures than their younger counterparts. They also seem more enthusiastic to vote, in part because they seem to view voting as part of lifting up the broader Black community.
The divide between older and younger Black voters Share of Black voters who hold the following positions or agree with the given statements Age position 18-29 60+ Overall Trump is a racist 79% 90% 84% Trump is incompetent 74 90 79 I vote to support the Black community * 54 71 63 Democratic Party is “welcoming” to Black Americans 47 76 61 Trust congressional Democrats to “do what is best” for Black people 43 73 57 I do not always like Trump’s policies, but I like the way he shows strength and defies the establishment. 35 10 30 Definitely motivated to vote 29 78 55 Trust congressional Republicans to do “what is best” for Black people 29 8 21 GOP is “welcoming” to Black Americans 28 7 22 I don’t vote because it doesn’t make a difference * 21 2 14 * Share of voters who said they “agree strongly” with the statement. Survey was conducted online July 1-9 in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on behalf of the American University Black Swing Voter Project. Source: African American Research Collaborative Poll
“Unlike their elders, who came up with fresh memories of civil rights activism, young folks aren’t willing to tolerate voting for the ‘lesser of two evils.’ They told us they would just as soon stay home,” said Sam Fulwood, a fellow at American University’s Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, who recently conducted focus groups with young Black voters as part of a research project.
In an interview, Terrance Woodbury of HIT described younger Black voters as having “systemic cynicism” towards institutions like the Democratic Party.
“There is a level of disenfranchisement and disengagement,” he added. Woodbury also argued that some of Trump’s messages have resonated with younger Black voters in particular. In focus groups, according to Woodbury, younger Black voters often mention the criminal justice reform bill that the president signed into law, his support for increased funding for historically Black colleges and the low Black unemployment rate before the coronavirus outbreak.
These differing views among Black Americans may not just be about age. When looking at all Black respondents (not just likely voters), Biden had more support among Black voters who were college-educated and those with higher-incomes, according to the Nationscape data. So it might be that more established Black people (older, more educated, higher income) are more satisfied with the Democratic Party than other Black Americans.
We’re not sure this is a huge problem for Biden, because it doesn’t appear that Trump is going to win a big share of younger Black voters, those without degrees or those with lower incomes. But a lack of enthusiasm for Biden might show up in terms of turnout.
It’s really hard to judge turnout at this stage
But the safe bet is that Black turnout won’t match white turnout, as in previous years (the exceptions being 2008 and 2012).
If Black Americans are really galvanized by the protests, Harris on the ticket or hatred of Trump, their voting rates will probably be the biggest indicator. In 2012, not only did the Black voting rate reach a record high of 67 percent, but Black voting rates were equal to white voting rates. In 2016 and then 2018, Black voting rates were a few percentage points behind white ones, as is the historical pattern.
It is really hard to gauge Black turnout from the polls we have now. Even when Obama was on the ballot, younger Black people voted at much lower rates than older ones — but across all ethnicities and races, younger people vote at lower rates. So the surveys above noting that younger Black people are not as supportive of Biden and Democrats don’t themselves predict lower turnout.
That said, the evidence we have indicates that super-high Black turnout was related to the chance to elect and then reelect the first-ever Black president. That is not happening in 2020, so it’s more likely that Black voting patterns will resemble 2004 or 2016 than 2008.
Think The Electoral College Is Unfair to Democrats? Try The Senate. | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirtyeight--2020-09-23--Trump Supporters Aren’t ‘Shy,’ But Polls Could Still Be Missing Some Of Them

There ’ s this theory that won ’ t die .
It goes something like this : Some unknown segment of President Trump ’ s support is too “ shy ” to admit they back him .
Usually offered as an explanation for why Trump ’ s poll numbers weren ’ t better in 2016 or why they ’ re not better now , the idea hinges on Trump being such a controversial candidate that it ’ s not socially desirable to say you support him , and as such , there is a lot of hidden Trump support not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there ’ s scant evidence of this .
In fact , there ’ s some evidence against the “ shy ” Trump theory .
If “ shy ” Trump voters were a thing , for example , you might expect a difference in how respondents reply to surveys conducted via telephone versus those anonymously submitted online — the idea being that social desirability bias is less likely to kick in when a respondent is dealing with a faceless computer instead of a real person .
However , as Morning Consult ’ s new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same against Joe Biden , regardless of whether the pollster interviewed respondents by phone or online .
As Kyle Dropp , Morning Consult ’ s chief research officer , summed it up for me , “ We ran a large sample study that does not find any shy Trump voters exist at the national level for the 2020 matchup.
” The firm also checked the results among respondents in battleground states , but there too found little sign of shy Trump voters .
This finding is broadly in line with what other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2017 report by the American Association for Public Opinion Research that “ yielded no evidence to support ” the “ shy ” Trump theory .
But that hasn ’ t stopped the ” shy ” Trump theory from resurfacing in 2020 .
In fact , polls suggest that as many as 55 percent of voters are convinced that hidden Trump support could help him win reelection in some way .
This obsession with finding hidden pockets of support for Trump is part of a larger phenomenon we ’ ve observed for a while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polls , and has been for months , but if you ask Americans if they think he will win , many still say yes .
And to be clear , Trump can win .
We think he has a nearly 1 in 4 shot of doing so in our forecast , but that doesn ’ t mean he ’ s not an underdog .
This is similar to what we said in the lead-up to the election in 2016 .
Then , Trump was an ordinary , average polling error away from winning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beat his polls by just a few points in just a couple of states he could win — and in fact , that ’ s exactly what happened .
Yet even though the polls in 2016 performed reasonably well , part of the reason we ’ re still talking about shy Trump voters is because the state polls had higher levels of error , especially in some key battleground states in 2016 that decided the election .
Moreover , polls showed a large percentage of undecided and third-party voters in the lead-up to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sizable number of late deciders who ended up disproportionately backing Trump .
And in all likelihood , surveys missed some Trump supporters due to sampling difficulties and weighting choices that pollsters made .
In other words , the likely reason we ’ re still talking about shy Trump voters is because the polls could still be missing some Trump voters — it ’ s just not because they ’ re shy .
One of the main takeaways from 2016 was that many state-level polls underrepresented the number of white voters without a four-year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ group that overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2016 .
As a result , some pollsters have since weighted their surveys by education , but not all have .
It remains a critical cleavage that pollsters still need to address .
Weighting for education is complicated , though ; namely , highly educated Americans are more likely to answer a poll than less educated Americans , and in an era of increasingly lower response rates , this could be a problem as underlying samples may be more educated than the actual population .
The upshot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weighting its respondents to match the educational breakdown of a state ’ s population , it still may not be reaching enough voters with lower education levels .
This could in turn affect the poll ’ s findings for the presidential race because the educational divide is now one of the most important predictors of party support besides race .
This means that pollsters could once again find themselves underestimating Republican support in 2020 because of weighting and sampling issues .
After all , separate analyses by Sean Trende at RealClearPolitics and Nate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Upshot both found that after the polls undershot Trump ’ s support in 2016 in key battleground states like Florida , Iowa , Michigan and Ohio , the same thing happened in 2018 with those states underestimating Republican Senate and gubernatorial candidates .
Overall , though , the polls were pretty good in 2018 .
The larger lesson , really , is that it ’ s impossible to predict which way polling errors will run in an election .
There are reasons polls might be missing some Trump supporters , but there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ underestimating Biden ’ s support .
Indeed , there have been plenty of cycles in which polls overall have been biased ( in a statistical sense ) in favor of Republican candidates .
All in all , the good news for pollsters is that few , if any , voters are misleading them about their support for Trump .
Yes , Morning Consult found small differences in support for Trump via household income and education , with wealthier and college-educated voters less likely to say they support Trump in a live-phone poll , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meaningful .
So while there might be a handful of reluctant Trump voters , it ’ s not on the level of the systemic polling challenges we ’ ve discussed that could still undersell how much support the president has .
We should , as always , be prepared for some degree of polling error , but it ’ s probably not going to happen because of shy Trump voters .
Think The Electoral College Is Unfair to Democrats ?
Try The Senate .
| FiveThirtyEight

There’s this theory that won’t die. It goes something like this: Some unknown segment of President Trump’s support is too “shy” to admit they back him. Usually offered as an explanation for why Trump’s poll numbers weren’t better in 2016 or why they’re not better now, the idea hinges on Trump being such a controversial candidate that it’s not socially desirable to say you support him, and as such, there is a lot of hidden Trump support not captured by the polls.
Only, there’s scant evidence of this. In fact, there’s some evidence against the “shy” Trump theory.
There just isn’t good evidence that ‘shy’ Trump voters exist
If “shy” Trump voters were a thing, for example, you might expect a difference in how respondents reply to surveys conducted via telephone versus those anonymously submitted online — the idea being that social desirability bias is less likely to kick in when a respondent is dealing with a faceless computer instead of a real person. However, as Morning Consult’s new 2,400-respondent study shows, Trump performed about the same against Joe Biden, regardless of whether the pollster interviewed respondents by phone or online.
Online or by phone: It didn’t change support for Trump Presidential support among likely voters, grouped by whether respondents were polled via live-phone interviews or online Voter support Candidate Live phone Online Difference Margin of error Biden 56% 55% -1 ±3 Trump 44 45 +1 ±3 Respondents who said they did not know who they supported were asked which candidate they leaned toward supporting. Their support is included here. Source: Morning Consult
As Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult’s chief research officer, summed it up for me, “We ran a large sample study that does not find any shy Trump voters exist at the national level for the 2020 matchup.” The firm also checked the results among respondents in battleground states, but there too found little sign of shy Trump voters.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
This finding is broadly in line with what other groups have found, such as a 2017 report by the American Association for Public Opinion Research that “yielded no evidence to support” the “shy” Trump theory. But that hasn’t stopped the ”shy” Trump theory from resurfacing in 2020. In fact, polls suggest that as many as 55 percent of voters are convinced that hidden Trump support could help him win reelection in some way.
This obsession with finding hidden pockets of support for Trump is part of a larger phenomenon we’ve observed for a while now: Trump is down in the polls, and has been for months, but if you ask Americans if they think he will win, many still say yes. And to be clear, Trump can win. We think he has a nearly 1 in 4 shot of doing so in our forecast, but that doesn’t mean he’s not an underdog.
This is similar to what we said in the lead-up to the election in 2016. Then, Trump was an ordinary, average polling error away from winning the election, in which if he beat his polls by just a few points in just a couple of states he could win — and in fact, that’s exactly what happened.
Yet even though the polls in 2016 performed reasonably well, part of the reason we’re still talking about shy Trump voters is because the state polls had higher levels of error, especially in some key battleground states in 2016 that decided the election. Moreover, polls showed a large percentage of undecided and third-party voters in the lead-up to the 2016 contest, which produced a sizable number of late deciders who ended up disproportionately backing Trump. And in all likelihood, surveys missed some Trump supporters due to sampling difficulties and weighting choices that pollsters made.
In other words, the likely reason we’re still talking about shy Trump voters is because the polls could still be missing some Trump voters — it’s just not because they’re shy.
One of the main takeaways from 2016 was that many state-level polls underrepresented the number of white voters without a four-year college degree in the electorate, a group that overwhelmingly backed Trump in 2016. As a result, some pollsters have since weighted their surveys by education, but not all have. It remains a critical cleavage that pollsters still need to address.
Weighting for education is complicated, though; namely, highly educated Americans are more likely to answer a poll than less educated Americans, and in an era of increasingly lower response rates, this could be a problem as underlying samples may be more educated than the actual population. The upshot is that even if a pollster is weighting its respondents to match the educational breakdown of a state’s population, it still may not be reaching enough voters with lower education levels. This could in turn affect the poll’s findings for the presidential race because the educational divide is now one of the most important predictors of party support besides race.
This means that pollsters could once again find themselves underestimating Republican support in 2020 because of weighting and sampling issues. After all, separate analyses by Sean Trende at RealClearPolitics and Nate Cohn at the New York Times’ The Upshot both found that after the polls undershot Trump’s support in 2016 in key battleground states like Florida, Iowa, Michigan and Ohio, the same thing happened in 2018 with those states underestimating Republican Senate and gubernatorial candidates. Overall, though, the polls were pretty good in 2018.
The larger lesson, really, is that it’s impossible to predict which way polling errors will run in an election. There are reasons polls might be missing some Trump supporters, but there are also reasons the polls could be underestimating Biden’s support. Indeed, there have been plenty of cycles in which polls overall have been biased (in a statistical sense) in favor of Republican candidates.
Polling bias is small and unpredictable Weighted average statistical bias of polls in the final 21 days before general elections, among polls in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings database Cycle Governor U.S. Senate U.S. House President Combined 1998 R+5.6 R+4.5 R+0.8 R+3.8 1999-2000 R+0.4 R+2.7 D+1.2 R+2.4 R+1.9 2001-02 D+3.0 D+1.3 D+1.5 D+2.2 2003-04 D+1.7 D+1.1 D+2.7 D+1.1 D+1.5 2005-06 D+0.2 R+1.3 D+0.7 D+0.0 2007-08 R+0.1 D+0.4 D+1.1 D+1.0 D+0.8 2009-10 R+0.1 R+0.7 D+1.7 D+0.6 2011-12 R+1.6 R+3.1 R+2.9 R+2.5 R+2.8 2013-14 D+2.3 D+2.6 D+3.8 D+2.7 2015-16 D+3.3 D+2.7 D+4.1 D+3.3 D+3.0 2017-18 R+0.9 D+0.1 R+0.6 R+0.5 2019-20* D+2.9 TBD D+6.0 TBD TBD All years D+0.5 D+0.1 D+0.8 D+0.3 D+0.3 Bias is calculated only for elections where the top two finishers were a Republican and a Democrat. Therefore, it is not calculated for presidential primaries. Averages are weighted by the square root of the number of polls that a particular pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle. Polls that are banned by FiveThirtyEight because we know or suspect they faked data are excluded from the analysis. *The gubernatorial and U.S. House figures are preliminary and based on small sample sizes. Because there are no polls of Senate or presidential races to incorporate, no combined score is given.
All in all, the good news for pollsters is that few, if any, voters are misleading them about their support for Trump. Yes, Morning Consult found small differences in support for Trump via household income and education, with wealthier and college-educated voters less likely to say they support Trump in a live-phone poll, but the shifts weren’t statistically meaningful. So while there might be a handful of reluctant Trump voters, it’s not on the level of the systemic polling challenges we’ve discussed that could still undersell how much support the president has. We should, as always, be prepared for some degree of polling error, but it’s probably not going to happen because of shy Trump voters.
Think The Electoral College Is Unfair to Democrats? Try The Senate. | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirtyeight--2020-09-23--Think The Electoral College Is Unfair To Democrats? Try The Senate.

FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver explains how the Senate ’ s rural skew makes it hard for Democrats to win a @ @ @ @ @ into the race for the Senate , check out our 2020 Senate forecast .

Think The Electoral College Is Unfair To Democrats? Try The Senate.
FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver explains how the Senate’s rural skew makes it hard for Democrats to win a majority.
For more insights into the race for the Senate, check out our 2020 Senate forecast.


fivethirtyeight--2020-09-24--Arizona Is The Democrats’ Purple Splotch In The Sunbelt

Is Barry Goldwater spinning in his grave ?
Is Arizona turning blue in 2020 ?
By every polling indication , the answer is yes .
The latest ream of surveys coming out of the state show President Trump trailing Democratic nominee Joe Biden .
The FiveThirtyEight polling average of Arizona has shown Biden with a lead of anywhere from 4.5 to 5 percentage points during the month of September , and our forecast gives Biden a 65 percent chance of winning the state .
Arizona ’ s blue-ish tint has not been the norm .
The last time the state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 1996 .
Before that , Arizona had a streak of voting for Republicans that dated back to 1952 .
But while Trump won the state with 48.1 percent of the vote in 2016 , his was the narrowest margin of Republican victory in recent memory .
Mitt Romney won Arizona with 54.2 percent of the vote in 2012 and John McCain won it ( his home state ) by around the same in 2008 .
George W. Bush got 55 percent of the vote in 2004 .
But now Arizona is probably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might be difficult to conceive at first — Goldwater , “ maverick ” McCain , and the latter-day celebrity of Sheriff Joe Arpaio have solidified the state as the convervative cowboy of American pop culture .
But a combination of long-term demographic changes and the , uh , unusual nature of the 2020 election , have revealed the state for what it is : a purple splotch in the desert .
That ’ s in part because of Latino voters , who are a rapidly growing group in Arizona and promise to play @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than in previous years .
According to Pew Research Center projections , for the first time Latinos will be the largest minority group participating in the 2020 election , with 32 million Latinos eligible to vote .
Arizona has among the largest Latino populations in the country — 31.7 percent of the state ’ s population is Latino , according to 2019 American Community Survey estimates , up from 25.2 percent in the year 2000 — and the group ’ s participation in elections appears to be growing .
Exit polls from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 16 percent of Arizona ’ s electorate , and an independent analysis of the state ’ s electorate in 2016 showed that about 21 percent was Latino .
In 2018 , exit polls showed that 18 percent of Arizona voters were Latino in a year that gave Democrat Kyrsten Sinema the victory in a close Senate Race .
While the Latino vote isn ’ t a monolith , there are factors that tend to make Arizona ’ s Latinos more Democratic-leaning .
For one thing , the majority of Latinos in Arizona are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has leaned more Democratic than , say , Cuban Americans .
According to data from Equis Research , compared to more Republican-leaning Texas , there ’ s a higher rate of foreign-born Latinos in Arizona , and they tend to be more anti-Trump .
A higher share of Arizona ’ s Latinos live in more urban areas compared to Texas ’ s Latinos , another factor that skews their vote more Democratic .
In addition to the population growth of Latinos in Arizona , Democrats say that they ’ ve also worked to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ We ’ ve created an electorate , ” Democratic strategist Rodd McLeod said of the party and community groups .
He pointed to Arizona ’ s Permanent Early Voting List — even before the pandemic , about 80 percent of the state voted by mail — as one key to building out the Democratic coalition in the state .
Identifying people who are “ on the edge of voting or not voting , ” McLeod said , helped push out reminders and door-knockers to voters who might not be in the habit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some Latino voters .
But ongoing demographic shifts are not the only reason that Arizona is competitive in the 2020 race .
White voters are also leaning towards Biden , marking a change from 2016 when Trump won 54 percent of Arizona ’ s white voters , according to exit polls .
Current polls show a much closer race between Biden and Trump with that group : a recent New York Times/Siena College survey , for example , showed Trump leading Biden by only a percentage point with white voters overall in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ college degree , Biden was beating Trump by 15 percentage points — Trump won that group in Arizona in 2016 , by a margin of 6 points , according to the exit polls .
Trump ’ s problem with suburban white voters is magnified in Arizona , where many of the state ’ s votes lie in the dense suburbia that is Maricopa County .
What ’ s more , those white , suburban independents in Arizona are more likely to be over 65 than elsewhere in the country , a group that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 12th-highest share of Americans over the age of 65 , according to a 2018 analysis by the Population Reference Bureau .
Mike Noble , chief pollster at Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights told me that Republicans ’ trouble in the suburbs could be traced back to 2018 in the Martha McSally-Kyrsten Sinema Senate race .
When he looked at precincts that flipped their party loyalty from 2016 to 2018 , Noble told me , McSally , the Republican candidate , was on the losing side of things : Over 80 districts in suburban @ @ @ @ @ @ @ switched over to vote for Sinema .
“ The composition of the folks there is white , college educated , independents , self-identified moderates , ” Noble said .
In the Trump era , he said , independents in the state who had once leaned to the right were now leaning left .
Voters are more preoccupied these days with health care , the economy and education , according to Noble ’ s data .
That ’ s a reversal from last year , he said , when Arizona voters saw immigration as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say actually , Arizona is a very much an independent state , ” he said .
“ If anyone has ever run to the far left or far right , they ’ ve gotten walloped.
” At least that ’ s the case in recent history .
Before that , Barry Goldwater had some things to say .

Is Barry Goldwater spinning in his grave? Is Arizona turning blue in 2020?
By every polling indication, the answer is yes. The latest ream of surveys coming out of the state show President Trump trailing Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The FiveThirtyEight polling average of Arizona has shown Biden with a lead of anywhere from 4.5 to 5 percentage points during the month of September, and our forecast gives Biden a 65 percent chance of winning the state.
Arizona’s blue-ish tint has not been the norm. The last time the state voted for a Democrat for president was in 1996. Before that, Arizona had a streak of voting for Republicans that dated back to 1952. But while Trump won the state with 48.1 percent of the vote in 2016, his was the narrowest margin of Republican victory in recent memory. Mitt Romney won Arizona with 54.2 percent of the vote in 2012 and John McCain won it (his home state) by around the same in 2008. George W. Bush got 55 percent of the vote in 2004.
But now Arizona is probably a bona fide swing state. That might be difficult to conceive at first — Goldwater, “maverick” McCain, and the latter-day celebrity of Sheriff Joe Arpaio have solidified the state as the conservative cowboy of American pop culture. But a combination of long-term demographic changes and the, uh, unusual nature of the 2020 election, have revealed the state for what it is: a purple splotch in the desert.
That’s in part because of Latino voters, who are a rapidly growing group in Arizona and promise to play a larger role in the 2020 election than in previous years. According to Pew Research Center projections, for the first time Latinos will be the largest minority group participating in the 2020 election, with 32 million Latinos eligible to vote. Arizona has among the largest Latino populations in the country — 31.7 percent of the state’s population is Latino, according to 2019 American Community Survey estimates, up from 25.2 percent in the year 2000 — and the group’s participation in elections appears to be growing. Exit polls from the 2008 presidential election showed Latino voters as 16 percent of Arizona’s electorate, and an independent analysis of the state’s electorate in 2016 showed that about 21 percent was Latino. In 2018, exit polls showed that 18 percent of Arizona voters were Latino in a year that gave Democrat Kyrsten Sinema the victory in a close Senate Race.
While the Latino vote isn’t a monolith, there are factors that tend to make Arizona’s Latinos more Democratic-leaning. For one thing, the majority of Latinos in Arizona are of Mexican descent, a group that has leaned more Democratic than, say, Cuban Americans. According to data from Equis Research, compared to more Republican-leaning Texas, there’s a higher rate of foreign-born Latinos in Arizona, and they tend to be more anti-Trump. A higher share of Arizona’s Latinos live in more urban areas compared to Texas’s Latinos, another factor that skews their vote more Democratic.
In addition to the population growth of Latinos in Arizona, Democrats say that they’ve also worked to leverage their advantage with the community. “We’ve created an electorate,” Democratic strategist Rodd McLeod said of the party and community groups. He pointed to Arizona’s Permanent Early Voting List — even before the pandemic, about 80 percent of the state voted by mail — as one key to building out the Democratic coalition in the state. Identifying people who are “on the edge of voting or not voting,” McLeod said, helped push out reminders and door-knockers to voters who might not be in the habit of regularly casting a ballot, like some Latino voters.
But ongoing demographic shifts are not the only reason that Arizona is competitive in the 2020 race. White voters are also leaning towards Biden, marking a change from 2016 when Trump won 54 percent of Arizona’s white voters, according to exit polls. Current polls show a much closer race between Biden and Trump with that group: a recent New York Times/Siena College survey, for example, showed Trump leading Biden by only a percentage point with white voters overall in the state. Among white voters with a college degree, Biden was beating Trump by 15 percentage points — Trump won that group in Arizona in 2016, by a margin of 6 points, according to the exit polls.
Trump’s problem with suburban white voters is magnified in Arizona, where many of the state’s votes lie in the dense suburbia that is Maricopa County. What’s more, those white, suburban independents in Arizona are more likely to be over 65 than elsewhere in the country, a group that Trump is struggling with. Arizona has the 12th-highest share of Americans over the age of 65, according to a 2018 analysis by the Population Reference Bureau.
Mike Noble, chief pollster at Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights told me that Republicans’ trouble in the suburbs could be traced back to 2018 in the Martha McSally-Kyrsten Sinema Senate race. When he looked at precincts that flipped their party loyalty from 2016 to 2018, Noble told me, McSally, the Republican candidate, was on the losing side of things: Over 80 districts in suburban Maricopa County that voted for Trump had switched over to vote for Sinema. “The composition of the folks there is white, college educated, independents, self-identified moderates,” Noble said. In the Trump era, he said, independents in the state who had once leaned to the right were now leaning left. Voters are more preoccupied these days with health care, the economy and education, according to Noble’s data. That’s a reversal from last year, he said, when Arizona voters saw immigration as a top issue.
“I would say actually, Arizona is a very much an independent state,” he said. “If anyone has ever run to the far left or far right, they’ve gotten walloped.”
At least that’s the case in recent history. Before that, Barry Goldwater had some things to say.


fivethirtyeight--2020-09-24--How Far Could Trump Go To Undermine The Election Results?

In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused @ @ @ @ @ transfer of power should he lose the 2020 election .

How Far Could Trump Go To Undermine The Election Results?
In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the 2020 election.


fivethirtyeight--2020-09-24--Politics Podcast: Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power

When asked on Wednesday , President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose in @ @ @ @ @ installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew discusses ways that Trump could subvert @ @ @ @ @ and how his rhetoric affects American democracy .
You can listen to the episode by @ @ @ @ @ button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN @ @ @ @ @ platform .
If you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The @ @ @ @ @ Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating @ @ @ @ @ Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” @ @ @ @ @ email , on Twitter or in the comments .

When asked on Wednesday, President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose in November. In this emergency installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses ways that Trump could subvert the results of the election and how his rhetoric affects American democracy.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirtyeight--2020-09-24--Four Senate Races To Watch As The GOP Rushes To Fill RBG’s Seat

Elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich takes a look at four key Senate races in our Senate forecast that could feel the @ @ @ @ @ to fill the vacant Supreme Court seat .

Four Senate Races To Watch As The GOP Rushes To Fill RBG’s Seat
Elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich takes a look at four key Senate races in our Senate forecast that could feel the effects of the ongoing battle to fill the vacant Supreme Court seat.


fivethirtyeight--2020-09-24--What State Polls Can Tell Us About The National Race

Earlier this week , I was working on an article that claimed Joe Biden had better results in state polls than in national polls .
Then on Wednesday , the inevitable happened .
Biden had some excellent results in national polls , including 10-point leads in high-quality national polls from Quinnipiac University and Marquette Law School , bringing his margin in our national polling average up to 7.3 percentage points .
And he had some pretty bad state polls .
ABC News/Washington Post polls showed him narrowly trailing President Trump in Florida and Arizona , for example , two states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( All numbers in this article are as of late Wednesday afternoon . )
Still , it ’ s worth thinking about what state polls can tell us about the national race .
Suppose , for instance , that there were no national polls , and instead , we had to guess what the national popular vote would be from state polls .
Actually , this wouldn ’ t be that hard at all !
Since we know how the states vote relative to the nation , we can use state polls to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instance , is typically about 3 points more Republican than the average state .
So if Biden were ahead by 2 points in Florida , it would imply that he was ahead by 5 points nationally .
Why bother with this when we can just look at national polls directly ?
Well , one good reason is that if used properly , state polls can actually give you a better projection of the national popular vote than national polls themselves !
In 2012 , for instance , our model — which then , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to forecast the national popular vote — showed then-President Barack Obama winning the popular vote by approximately 3 points , even though his lead in national polls was only about 1 point .
Indeed , the state polls provided the better estimate of the national popular vote than the national polls did .
( Obama won the popular vote that year by around 4 points . )
Keep in mind that there is a lot of information contained in those state polls .
They may do a better job of estimating the preferences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in their states — Cuban Americans in Florida , or Mormons in Utah , for example — than national polls ever could .
And at least this year , the pollsters conducting state polls tend to be more highly rated than those doing national polls , especially with pollsters like New York Times/Siena College and our colleagues at ABC News doing more state polling this year than in the past .
So let me run you through a simplified version of how our model uses those state polls .
It ’ s similar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In each state , our model calculates the national margin based on a state ’ s partisan lean , plus Biden ’ s current lead or deficit in our polling average .
Here is that calculation for a broad group of purple states ( or congressional district in the case of Nebraska ) — everything on the spectrum from purple-red ( maroon ? )
states like Texas to purple-blue ( indigo ? )
states like New Mexico .
I ’ ll show you the national margin based both on how a state voted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2012 — in some cases , there are significant differences .
As of late Wednesday afternoon , for example , Biden led by 6.8 percentage points in our polling average in Wisconsin .
It ’ s clearly good news for Biden that he ’ s leading in Wisconsin , but what it implies about the national race depends on what year you ’ re comparing it with .
In 2016 , for instance , Wisconsin was about 2.9 points more Republican than the nation , so having a 6.8-point lead there would imply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nationally .
But in 2012 , Wisconsin was 3.1 points more Democratic than the country overall , so a 6.8-point lead would imply only a 3.7-point national margin .
Indeed , you can see in the chart where Biden is running especially well or comparatively poorly relative to how the state usually votes .
The fact that Biden is nearly tied with Trump in Texas is extremely impressive for Biden , for example .
But it ’ s not a great sign for him that his lead in Florida is so narrow .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Michigan and Maine — which swung strongly against Hillary Clinton in 2016 — Biden ’ s performance is very impressive relative to four years ago , but not so much as compared with 2012 .
However , averaging each state ’ s implied national margin and weighting it based on each state ’ s turnout puts Biden ahead by 8.1 points nationally if you ’ re using 2016 as a baseline , or 7.2 points if you ’ re using 2012 instead .
In this case , that ’ s pretty similar to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But what about polls in deeply red states and deeply blue states ?
Those states may not create much Electoral College suspense , but they do count toward the popular vote .
First , Biden ’ s national margin in red states that have a sufficient amount of polling : Biden ’ s actually polling comparatively well in many of these red states .
He ’ s not much of a threat to win them , but in a fair number of them , his deficit is in the single digits when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ digits .
Whether this is real or reflects dubious polling is harder to say , however .
In very blue and very red states , it ’ s not uncommon for polls to underestimate the winning candidate ’ s margin .
But maybe Biden , who isn ’ t as easily typecast as a liberal as Democrats like Clinton , Obama and John Kerry , has a bit more red-state appeal than other recent Democratic nominees have .
Overall , the red state polls imply that Biden has a 12-point national lead ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 as a baseline , or a 9.8 lead if you ’ re using 2012 instead .
How about polls in deeply blue states ?
Most of these states actually haven ’ t been polled very much , but of the ones that have , California stands out : Biden is leading by “ only ” 29.3 percentage points there , which , of course , is a very large lead , but he is actually slightly down from Clinton ’ s 30.1-point win there in 2016 .
It makes some sense , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Clinton is with older white voters , whereas California voters are majority-minority and young .
Then again , that 29.3-point margin would still be higher than Obama ’ s margins there in 2012 — or in 2008 .
In total , the blue states imply a 5.2-point national lead for Biden using 2016 as a baseline , or 8.5 points using 2012 .
Add it all up , and the state polls are a tiny bit better for Biden than his national polls show — but only a tiny bit .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states combined imply that Biden is ahead by 8.0 percentage points nationally ( you get the same results whether using 2012 or 2016 as a baseline ) as compared with his current 7.3-point lead in national polls .
Perhaps the broader lesson here is that we don ’ t really need national polls for all that much .
In fact , our model uses them fairly sparingly .
The election is contested at the state level .
Although it can be useful to know where the national popular vote stands for various reasons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national polls to forecast it — you can come up with pretty good ( indeed , often better ) estimates of the national popular vote by using state polls instead .

Earlier this week, I was working on an article that claimed Joe Biden had better results in state polls than in national polls.
Then on Wednesday, the inevitable happened. Biden had some excellent results in national polls, including 10-point leads in high-quality national polls from Quinnipiac University and Marquette Law School, bringing his margin in our national polling average up to 7.3 percentage points. And he had some pretty bad state polls. ABC News/Washington Post polls showed him narrowly trailing President Trump in Florida and Arizona, for example, two states where he has usually held leads. (All numbers in this article are as of late Wednesday afternoon.)
Still, it’s worth thinking about what state polls can tell us about the national race. Suppose, for instance, that there were no national polls, and instead, we had to guess what the national popular vote would be from state polls. Actually, this wouldn’t be that hard at all!
Since we know how the states vote relative to the nation, we can use state polls to estimate national results. Florida, for instance, is typically about 3 points more Republican than the average state. So if Biden were ahead by 2 points in Florida, it would imply that he was ahead by 5 points nationally.
Why bother with this when we can just look at national polls directly?
Well, one good reason is that if used properly, state polls can actually give you a better projection of the national popular vote than national polls themselves! In 2012, for instance, our model — which then, like now, mostly uses state polls to forecast the national popular vote — showed then-President Barack Obama winning the popular vote by approximately 3 points, even though his lead in national polls was only about 1 point. Indeed, the state polls provided the better estimate of the national popular vote than the national polls did. (Obama won the popular vote that year by around 4 points.)
Keep in mind that there is a lot of information contained in those state polls. They may do a better job of estimating the preferences of demographic groups that are more common in their states — Cuban Americans in Florida, or Mormons in Utah, for example — than national polls ever could. And at least this year, the pollsters conducting state polls tend to be more highly rated than those doing national polls, especially with pollsters like New York Times/Siena College and our colleagues at ABC News doing more state polling this year than in the past.
So let me run you through a simplified version of how our model uses those state polls. It’s similar to the example about Florida above. In each state, our model calculates the national margin based on a state’s partisan lean, plus Biden’s current lead or deficit in our polling average. Here is that calculation for a broad group of purple states (or congressional district in the case of Nebraska) — everything on the spectrum from purple-red (maroon?) states like Texas to purple-blue (indigo?) states like New Mexico. I’ll show you the national margin based both on how a state voted in 2016 and how it voted in 2012 — in some cases, there are significant differences.
What purple state polls say about the national race Biden’s polling lead or deficit in close states, and what that means for his national margin, based on 2016 and 2012 results Biden national margin State Biden’s current lead or deficit* Based on 2016 results Based on 2012 results Texas -0.7 +10.4 +18.9 Georgia -1.0 +6.2 +10.7 Iowa -1.0 +10.5 -3.0 Ohio -1.0 +9.2 -0.1 Arizona +3.8 +9.4 +16.7 Nebraska 2nd District +4.3 +8.6 +15.3 North Carolina +1.2 +6.9 +7.1 Florida +1.7 +5.0 +4.7 Pennsylvania +4.6 +7.4 +3.1 Wisconsin +6.8 +9.7 +3.7 New Hampshire +6.9 +8.6 +5.2 Michigan +7.5 +9.8 +1.9 Minnesota +9.2 +9.8 +5.4 Nevada +5.8 +5.5 +3.0 Virginia +11.3 +8.1 +11.3 Colorado +10.2 +7.4 +8.7 Maine +13.9 +13.0 +2.5 New Mexico +12.9 +6.8 +6.6 Average (weighted by turnout) +3.6 +8.1 +7.2 *Based on FiveThirtyEight polling averages as of 4:10 p.m. Eastern on Sept. 23. States (or district in the case of Nebraska) are included only if they have at least five total polls or polls from at least three pollsters. Sorted from reddest to bluest.
As of late Wednesday afternoon, for example, Biden led by 6.8 percentage points in our polling average in Wisconsin. It’s clearly good news for Biden that he’s leading in Wisconsin, but what it implies about the national race depends on what year you’re comparing it with. In 2016, for instance, Wisconsin was about 2.9 points more Republican than the nation, so having a 6.8-point lead there would imply that Biden had a huge 9.7-point lead nationally. But in 2012, Wisconsin was 3.1 points more Democratic than the country overall, so a 6.8-point lead would imply only a 3.7-point national margin.
Indeed, you can see in the chart where Biden is running especially well or comparatively poorly relative to how the state usually votes. The fact that Biden is nearly tied with Trump in Texas is extremely impressive for Biden, for example. But it’s not a great sign for him that his lead in Florida is so narrow. In states like Iowa, Ohio, Michigan and Maine — which swung strongly against Hillary Clinton in 2016 — Biden’s performance is very impressive relative to four years ago, but not so much as compared with 2012.
However, averaging each state’s implied national margin and weighting it based on each state’s turnout puts Biden ahead by 8.1 points nationally if you’re using 2016 as a baseline, or 7.2 points if you’re using 2012 instead. In this case, that’s pretty similar to his current 7.3-point lead in national polls.
But what about polls in deeply red states and deeply blue states? Those states may not create much Electoral College suspense, but they do count toward the popular vote. First, Biden’s national margin in red states that have a sufficient amount of polling:
What red state polls say about the national race Biden’s polling lead or deficit in traditionally Republican states, and what that means for his national margin, based on 2016 and 2012 results Biden national margin State Biden’s current lead or deficit* Based on 2016 results Based on 2012 results Oklahoma -23.6 +14.9 +13.8 Kentucky -18.6 +13.3 +7.9 Alabama -14.9 +14.9 +11.1 Utah -12.4 +7.6 +39.3 Tennessee -12.3 +15.8 +11.9 Kansas -9.3 +13.2 +16.1 Louisiana -10.7 +11.0 +10.4 Montana -8.0 +14.3 +9.5 Indiana -14.4 +6.7 -0.3 Mississippi -11.7 +8.2 +3.7 Missouri -6.7 +13.9 +6.5 South Carolina -6.8 +9.6 +7.5 Average (weighted by turnout) -12.4 +12.0 +9.8 *Based on FiveThirtyEight polling averages as of 4:10 p.m. Eastern on Sept. 23. States are included only if they have at least five total polls or polls from at least three pollsters. Sorted from reddest to bluest.
Biden’s actually polling comparatively well in many of these red states. He’s not much of a threat to win them, but in a fair number of them, his deficit is in the single digits when Democrats usually lose them by the double digits. Whether this is real or reflects dubious polling is harder to say, however.
In very blue and very red states, it’s not uncommon for polls to underestimate the winning candidate’s margin. But maybe Biden, who isn’t as easily typecast as a liberal as Democrats like Clinton, Obama and John Kerry, has a bit more red-state appeal than other recent Democratic nominees have. Overall, the red state polls imply that Biden has a 12-point national lead (!) if you’re using 2016 as a baseline, or a 9.8 lead if you’re using 2012 instead.
How about polls in deeply blue states? Most of these states actually haven’t been polled very much, but of the ones that have, California stands out:
What blue state polls say about the national race Biden’s polling lead or deficit in traditionally Democratic states, and what that means for his national margin, based on 2016 and 2012 results Biden national margin State Biden’s current lead or deficit* Based on 2016 results Based on 2012 results Connecticut +20.7 +9.2 +7.2 New Jersey +19.1 +7.2 +5.2 Washington +24.4 +10.8 +13.5 New York +26.8 +6.4 +2.5 Massachusetts +34.1 +9.0 +14.8 California +29.3 +1.4 +10.1 Average (weighted by turnout) +27.1 +5.2 +8.5 *Based on FiveThirtyEight polling averages as of 4:10 p.m. Eastern on Sept. 23. States are included only if they have at least five total polls or polls from at least three pollsters. Sorted from reddest to bluest.
Biden is leading by “only” 29.3 percentage points there, which, of course, is a very large lead, but he is actually slightly down from Clinton’s 30.1-point win there in 2016. It makes some sense, though. Biden’s strength relative to Clinton is with older white voters, whereas California voters are majority-minority and young. Then again, that 29.3-point margin would still be higher than Obama’s margins there in 2012 — or in 2008. In total, the blue states imply a 5.2-point national lead for Biden using 2016 as a baseline, or 8.5 points using 2012.
Add it all up, and the state polls are a tiny bit better for Biden than his national polls show — but only a tiny bit.
The results from red, purple and blue states combined imply that Biden is ahead by 8.0 percentage points nationally (you get the same results whether using 2012 or 2016 as a baseline) as compared with his current 7.3-point lead in national polls.
Perhaps the broader lesson here is that we don’t really need national polls for all that much.
In fact, our model uses them fairly sparingly. The election is contested at the state level. Although it can be useful to know where the national popular vote stands for various reasons, you don’t actually need national polls to forecast it — you can come up with pretty good (indeed, often better) estimates of the national popular vote by using state polls instead.


fivethirtyeight--2020-09-25--Why Four Pivotal Swing States Likely Won’t Be Called On Election Night

The 2020 election is already underway in several states , but that doesn ’ t mean the rules aren ’ t still changing .
( We ’ re tracking them all here . )
In the past eight days alone , four important swing states have tentatively extended the deadline by which mail ballots must be received .
• The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that ballots can arrive as late as Nov. 6 and still count as long as no evidence ( e.g.
, a postmark ) exists that they were mailed after Election Day ( Nov. 3 ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ballots can be counted as long as they are postmarked by the day before the election ( Nov. 2 ) and received by Nov. 17 .
• A federal judge ordered Wisconsin to count absentee ballots that are postmarked by Nov. 3 as long as they arrive by Nov. 9 .
• And North Carolina reached a tentative court settlement with plaintiffs that , among other things , would allow ballots to count as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3 and arrive by Nov. 12 .
( However , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a judge before it officially goes into effect . )
Importantly , however , these changes aren ’ t set in stone ; Republicans may continue to contest them in court .
At the very least , GOP legislative leaders in Wisconsin have already appealed that decision to the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals , and Republicans say they plan to take the Pennsylvania decision to the U.S. Supreme Court .
If they stand , though , these rulings could be significant .
First , they obviously make it easier to vote by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accepting ballots means fewer voters will be disenfranchised for mailing their ballots too late .
In terms of the horse race , that ’ s likely to give Democrats a small boost in these states , since Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to say they plan to vote by mail this year .
Second , these rulings increase the odds that media outlets won ’ t be able to declare a winner in these four states on election night .
And given the pivotal role these states will play in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 56 percent chance that one of them will decide the Electoral College , according to the FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast — this in turn increases the odds that we won ’ t know the winner of the presidential race for days after the fact .
We haven ’ t written much about which states are expected to report most of their election results on election night and which will be delayed , because it ’ s actually pretty difficult to predict .
Several different variables factor into how quickly a state counts its votes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ballots ( which take longer to count than in-person ballots ) , how early the state is allowed to start processing mail ballots , and how well-resourced state election officials are .
And with new court decisions and executive orders being issued on what feels like a daily basis , those variables are still subject to a lot of change .
But perhaps the surest sign that a state won ’ t be called on election night is if it accepts mail ballots that arrive after Election Day .
By definition , any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be incomplete because at least some ballots — and probably quite a few — will still be in transit .
And with the recent developments in Pennsylvania , Michigan , Wisconsin and North Carolina , that means a majority of presidential swing states now fall into this category ( at least for now ) .
Right now , it looks like our best chance of getting a call on election night in a major swing state is in Florida .
In addition to not accepting ballots that arrive after Election Day , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ several weeks early , enabling them to release results extremely quickly on election night .
On paper , Arizona also looks like it could be called on election night , although it doesn ’ t have a good track record of fast counting : In 2018 , it took almost a week to declare a winner in some close races there .
But it looks increasingly unlikely that we ’ ll be able to declare an election-night winner in Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin .
In addition to possibly having thousands of ballots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these states will probably be slow to count even the mail ballots that have already arrived , since all three prohibit processing mail ballots before Election Day .
( By contrast , North Carolina is allowed to process mail ballots well in advance , so we should learn the results of mail ballots that arrive by Nov. 2 shortly after polls close — but then have to wait days for the remainder . )
If Biden is leading in those states in the wee hours of Nov. 4 , that may be the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to lean heavily Democratic , his margin will probably only increase as more mail ballots are counted .
But if Trump is leading in these states , we could be in for days of waiting on the edge of our seat for every ballot dump .
Since this is a distinct possibility , we must continue to prepare ourselves for a world in which we won ’ t know the identity of the next president until mid-November .

The 2020 election is already underway in several states, but that doesn’t mean the rules aren’t still changing. (We’re tracking them all here.) In the past eight days alone, four important swing states have tentatively extended the deadline by which mail ballots must be received.
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that ballots can arrive as late as Nov. 6 and still count as long as no evidence (e.g., a postmark) exists that they were mailed after Election Day (Nov. 3).
Supreme Court ruled that ballots can arrive as late as Nov. 6 and still count as long as no evidence (e.g., a postmark) exists that they were mailed after Election Day (Nov. 3). A state judge in Michigan decreed that ballots can be counted as long as they are postmarked by the day before the election (Nov. 2) and received by Nov. 17.
decreed that ballots can be counted as long as they are postmarked by the day before the election (Nov. 2) and received by Nov. 17. A federal judge ordered Wisconsin to count absentee ballots that are postmarked by Nov. 3 as long as they arrive by Nov. 9.
to count absentee ballots that are postmarked by Nov. 3 as long as they arrive by Nov. 9. And North Carolina reached a tentative court settlement with plaintiffs that, among other things, would allow ballots to count as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3 and arrive by Nov. 12. (However, the settlement still needs to be approved by a judge before it officially goes into effect.)
Importantly, however, these changes aren’t set in stone; Republicans may continue to contest them in court. At the very least, GOP legislative leaders in Wisconsin have already appealed that decision to the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals, and Republicans say they plan to take the Pennsylvania decision to the U.S. Supreme Court.
4 Senate races to watch as GOP rushes to fill Justice Ginsburgâs seat
If they stand, though, these rulings could be significant. First, they obviously make it easier to vote by mail — a more generous window for accepting ballots means fewer voters will be disenfranchised for mailing their ballots too late. In terms of the horse race, that’s likely to give Democrats a small boost in these states, since Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to say they plan to vote by mail this year.
Second, these rulings increase the odds that media outlets won’t be able to declare a winner in these four states on election night. And given the pivotal role these states will play in the presidential election — there’s a 56 percent chance that one of them will decide the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast — this in turn increases the odds that we won’t know the winner of the presidential race for days after the fact.
We haven’t written much about which states are expected to report most of their election results on election night and which will be delayed, because it’s actually pretty difficult to predict. Several different variables factor into how quickly a state counts its votes, including how many people cast mail ballots (which take longer to count than in-person ballots), how early the state is allowed to start processing mail ballots, and how well-resourced state election officials are. And with new court decisions and executive orders being issued on what feels like a daily basis, those variables are still subject to a lot of change.
But perhaps the surest sign that a state won’t be called on election night is if it accepts mail ballots that arrive after Election Day. By definition, any results these states release on election night will be incomplete because at least some ballots — and probably quite a few — will still be in transit. And with the recent developments in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina, that means a majority of presidential swing states now fall into this category (at least for now).
Most swing states will be counting ballots after Election Day The deadline for mail ballots to be received in likely tipping-point states State Tipping-Point Chance Mail Ballot Receipt Deadline Accepts Ballots After Election Day? Pennsylvania* 33% Nov. 6 ✓ Florida 12 Nov. 3 Wisconsin* 9 Nov. 9 ✓ Michigan 8 Nov. 17 ✓ Arizona 6 Nov. 3 North Carolina* 5 Nov. 12 ✓ Ohio 3 Nov. 13 ✓ Nevada 3 Nov. 10 ✓ Minnesota 3 Nov. 10 ✓ Colorado 3 Nov. 3 New Hampshire 2 Nov. 3 Georgia* 2 Nov. 6 ✓ Virginia 1 Nov. 6 ✓ Texas 1 Nov. 4 ✓ *Subject to being overturned by a court. Deadlines are for ballots mailed domestically; overseas ballots often have later deadlines. “Tipping-point chance” is the chance that a given state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. Tipping-point chances are as of Sept. 24 at 5 p.m. Eastern. Sources: State election officials, news reports
Right now, it looks like our best chance of getting a call on election night in a major swing state is in Florida. In addition to not accepting ballots that arrive after Election Day, the Sunshine State begins processing mail ballots several weeks early, enabling them to release results extremely quickly on election night. On paper, Arizona also looks like it could be called on election night, although it doesn’t have a good track record of fast counting: In 2018, it took almost a week to declare a winner in some close races there.
But it looks increasingly unlikely that we’ll be able to declare an election-night winner in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In addition to possibly having thousands of ballots still in transit on election night, these states will probably be slow to count even the mail ballots that have already arrived, since all three prohibit processing mail ballots before Election Day. (By contrast, North Carolina is allowed to process mail ballots well in advance, so we should learn the results of mail ballots that arrive by Nov. 2 shortly after polls close — but then have to wait days for the remainder.)
If Biden is leading in those states in the wee hours of Nov. 4, that may be the ballgame: Because mail ballots are expected to lean heavily Democratic, his margin will probably only increase as more mail ballots are counted. But if Trump is leading in these states, we could be in for days of waiting on the edge of our seat for every ballot dump. Since this is a distinct possibility, we must continue to prepare ourselves for a world in which we won’t know the identity of the next president until mid-November.
Trump Won’t Commit To Peaceful Transfer Of Power | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast


fivethirtyeight--2020-09-25--Most Americans Want To Wait Until After The Election To Fill The Supreme Court Vacancy

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg opened up a rare vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court , and Republicans are moving quickly to fill the seat .
President Trump says he will nominate a replacement for Ginsburg on Saturday , and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has pledged a vote on the nominee this year .
( And it looks as if he might have the votes to confirm her . )
But polling conducted in the wake of Ginsburg ’ s death shows that this may be an unpopular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polls so far that have asked some version of the question , “ Should Ginsburg ’ s seat be filled this year by Trump , or next year by the winner of the 2020 presidential election ?
” And on average , 52 percent of respondents have said to wait , while only 39 percent have said Trump should fill the seat now .
If that split sounds familiar , that ’ s because it closely echoes both polls of Trump ’ s approval rating ( 43 percent approval vs. 53 percent disapproval @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polls between Trump and Joe Biden ( which average out to Biden 50 percent , Trump 43 percent ) .
In other words , partisanship is probably driving people ’ s opinions of when the Supreme Court vacancy should be filled .
You also saw this in the crosstabs of almost every poll this week : On average , 78 percent of Republican respondents said Trump should fill the vacancy now , while 84 percent of Democratic respondents said it should be up to the winner of the election .
( This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generally believed then-President Obama should have been allowed to fill Justice Antonin Scalia ’ s seat , while Republicans supported having the winner of the election decide . )
But this issue is also a great example of when question wording can really affect the results of a poll .
For example , Americans felt differently about whether Trump should appoint a replacement and whether the Senate should confirm her if he does .
For example , registered voters told YouGov by a 51 percent to 42 percent margin that Trump should not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were more divided when asked , “ If President Donald Trump appoints a new Supreme Court Justice before the presidential inauguration in January 2021 , do you think the U.S. Senate should confirm the nominee ?
” : 45 percent said yes , 48 percent said no .
Similarly , Global Strategy Group/GBAO/Navigator found that registered voters thought 56 percent to 36 percent that the winner of the election should be responsible for nominating Ginsburg ’ s replacement — but when asked what they thought what should happen if Trump nominates someone anyway @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right for the Senate to vote on the nominee , while 47 percent thought it would be wrong .
In addition , some polls asked if Ginsburg ’ s seat should be filled before Election Day ( Nov. 3 ) , while others asked if it should be filled before inauguration day ( Jan. 20 ) .
And while many voters would prefer to wait until after the election , that doesn ’ t mean they necessarily oppose Trump naming a nominee .
In the SurveyMonkey/Insider poll , 45 percent of registered voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should appoint the next justice , and the Senate should not vote until the election is decided , ” while 28 percent said the Senate should confirm her “ as soon as possible , before the 2020 election.
” But another 13 percent said it should happen “ after the 2020 election but before the next inauguration , regardless [ of whether ] President Trump wins or loses.
” So that suggests that 58 percent of voters want to wait until after the election , but that 41 percent of voters want Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seat .
Relatedly , Reuters/Ipsos returned two seemingly contradictory findings : First , 62 percent of adults ( including 49 percent of Republicans ) agreed with the statement , “ The winner of the election should be able to appoint Ruth Bader Ginsburg ’ s replacement on the Supreme Court.
” ( Only 24 percent disagreed . )
But the pollster also found that respondents agreed , 46 percent to 40 percent , with the statement , “ President Donald Trump should nominate a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg before his term ends.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s right to nominate a replacement but don ’ t want to see her confirmed until we know the results of the election .
Or it could be that many Republicans believe Trump will be the winner of the election , so the two statements aren ’ t contradictory to them .
Another good example of how question wording might have affected people ’ s answers came from The Economist/YouGov , which asked , “ Do you think Donald Trump should nominate someone to fill the vacancy , or should the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ takes office in January 2021 ?
” Referring to the seat as “ remain [ ing ] vacant , ” rather than saying that winner of the election would fill it , might have emphasized to respondents that the Supreme Court would be understaffed for at least four months in this scenario ; the use of the phrase “ new president ” might also have implied “ not Trump.
” That could explain why this was one of the best polls for McConnell and Trump : Respondents supported waiting to fill the seat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent margin .
Overall , it seems clear that forging ahead with the confirmation process now is somewhere between a mildly unpopular decision and a very unpopular one .
But it ’ s unclear whether it will actually hurt Republicans at the ballot box .
As I wrote on Tuesday , only 5 percent of registered voters told SurveyMonkey/Insider that the Supreme Court vacancy made them less certain of their vote , and a plurality of respondents told Reuters/Ipsos that it would have no impact on their presidential vote .
And although the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to many Americans — “ very important ” to 52 percent of them and “ somewhat important ” to 23 percent , according to The Economist/YouGov — it might not be as important as the other issues they were already basing their vote on .
According to the HuffPost/YouGov survey , only 21 percent of voters said the Supreme Court is one of their top three issue priorities — well behind the economy ( 42 percent ) , the coronavirus ( 41 percent ) and health care ( 34 percent ) .
• @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 69 percent of Americans don ’ t have confidence in Trump ’ s assurances that a coronavirus vaccine would be effective ; only 27 percent placed a “ great deal ” or “ good amount ” of confidence in the president .
In addition , the pollster found that the number of Americans who said they are likely to get the vaccine has dropped from 74 percent in May to 64 percent in September .
• According to a Harvard Institute of Politics survey , 63 percent of young Americans ( under age @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” vote in the general election — higher than the 47 percent who said so in 2016 .
Among these young likely voters , Biden held a 60 percent to 27 percent lead .
• Traditional campaign field organizations — like knocking on doors to ask people for their vote — have been greatly diminished in 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic .
Indeed , some Democrats are worried that Biden ’ s campaign is doing so little on-the-ground outreach .
But a new Morning Consult/Politico survey may validate Biden ’ s approach : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apprehensive about answering the door for canvassers , while just 28 percent said they were comfortable with it .
• The race in California ’ s 53rd Congressional District won ’ t help decide who controls the U.S. House ; the campaign is between two Democrats who both advanced from March ’ s all-party primary .
But there are still big differences between 31-year-old self-funder Sara Jacobs , a moderate , and San Diego City Council President Georgette Gómez , a progressive who would also be the first openly LGBTQ Latina in Congress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune gives Jacobs a 38 percent to 24 percent lead in the general election .
• Just want 2020 to be over already ?
You ’ re in good company .
When YouGov asked Americans how the year 2020 has been for them , 21 percent said “ bad , ” and another 21 percent said “ terrible.
” While 37 percent of Americans said 2020 has been “ okay , ” only 12 percent said it has been “ good , ” and just 5 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 42.9 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president , while 53.2 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -10.3 points ) .
At this time last week , 43.3 percent approved and 52.7 percent disapproved ( a net approval rating of -9.5 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 41.6 percent and a disapproval rating of 54.7 percent , for a net approval rating of -13.0 points .
In our average of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrats currently lead by 6.4 percentage points ( 48.8 percent to 42.3 percent ) .
A week ago , Democrats led Republicans by 6.4 points ( 48.6 percent to 42.2 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters preferred Democrats by 7.4 points ( 48.3 percent to 41.0 percent ) .
Check out all the polls we ’ ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections .

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg opened up a rare vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court, and Republicans are moving quickly to fill the seat. President Trump says he will nominate a replacement for Ginsburg on Saturday, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has pledged a vote on the nominee this year. (And it looks as if he might have the votes to confirm her.) But polling conducted in the wake of Ginsburg’s death shows that this may be an unpopular decision.
We’ve identified 12 polls so far that have asked some version of the question, “Should Ginsburg’s seat be filled this year by Trump, or next year by the winner of the 2020 presidential election?” And on average, 52 percent of respondents have said to wait, while only 39 percent have said Trump should fill the seat now.
Americans want the election winner to choose a new justice Polls conducted since Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death asking whether the Supreme Court vacancy should be filled by President Trump now or by the winner of the 2020 election The seat should be filled by … Pollster Dates Trump now the 2020 winner SurveyMonkey/Insider Sept. 18-19 28% 45% Data for Progress Sept. 18-19 39 53 YouGov Sept. 19 42 51 ScottRasmussen.com Sept. 19 41 52 Reuters/Ipsos* Sept. 19-20 46 62 Rasmussen Sept. 20 45 51 Morning Consult/Politico Sept. 18-20 37 50 Global Strategy Group/Navigator Sept. 19-21 36 56 HuffPost/YouGov Sept. 19-22 36 49 The Economist/YouGov Sept. 20-22 41 46 CNN/SSRS Sept. 21-22 41 59 Yahoo News/YouGov Sept. 21-23 40 53 Average 39 52 *Reuters/Ipsos numbers sum to more than 100 percent because the poll asked two separate questions: whether respondents thought Trump should fill the seat, and whether they thought the 2020 winner should fill the seat. Source: Polls
If that split sounds familiar, that’s because it closely echoes both polls of Trump’s approval rating (43 percent approval vs. 53 percent disapproval, on average) and national horse-race polls between Trump and Joe Biden (which average out to Biden 50 percent, Trump 43 percent).
In other words, partisanship is probably driving people’s opinions of when the Supreme Court vacancy should be filled. You also saw this in the crosstabs of almost every poll this week: On average, 78 percent of Republican respondents said Trump should fill the vacancy now, while 84 percent of Democratic respondents said it should be up to the winner of the election. (This is a reversal from 2016, when Democrats generally believed then-President Obama should have been allowed to fill Justice Antonin Scalia’s seat, while Republicans supported having the winner of the election decide.)
But this issue is also a great example of when question wording can really affect the results of a poll. For example, Americans felt differently about whether Trump should appoint a replacement and whether the Senate should confirm her if he does. For example, registered voters told YouGov by a 51 percent to 42 percent margin that Trump should not appoint a new justice, but they were more divided when asked, “If President Donald Trump appoints a new Supreme Court Justice before the presidential inauguration in January 2021, do you think the U.S. Senate should confirm the nominee?”: 45 percent said yes, 48 percent said no. Similarly, Global Strategy Group/GBAO/Navigator found that registered voters thought 56 percent to 36 percent that the winner of the election should be responsible for nominating Ginsburg’s replacement — but when asked what they thought what should happen if Trump nominates someone anyway, 42 percent thought it would be right for the Senate to vote on the nominee, while 47 percent thought it would be wrong.
4 Senate races to watch as GOP rushes to fill Justice Ginsburgâs seat
In addition, some polls asked if Ginsburg’s seat should be filled before Election Day (Nov. 3), while others asked if it should be filled before inauguration day (Jan. 20). And while many voters would prefer to wait until after the election, that doesn’t mean they necessarily oppose Trump naming a nominee. In the SurveyMonkey/Insider poll, 45 percent of registered voters agreed that “whoever wins the election should appoint the next justice, and the Senate should not vote until the election is decided,” while 28 percent said the Senate should confirm her “as soon as possible, before the 2020 election.” But another 13 percent said it should happen “after the 2020 election but before the next inauguration, regardless [of whether] President Trump wins or loses.” So that suggests that 58 percent of voters want to wait until after the election, but that 41 percent of voters want Trump to be the one to fill the seat.
Relatedly, Reuters/Ipsos returned two seemingly contradictory findings: First, 62 percent of adults (including 49 percent of Republicans) agreed with the statement, “The winner of the election should be able to appoint Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement on the Supreme Court.” (Only 24 percent disagreed.) But the pollster also found that respondents agreed, 46 percent to 40 percent, with the statement, “President Donald Trump should nominate a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg before his term ends.” It could be that Americans acknowledge Trump’s right to nominate a replacement but don’t want to see her confirmed until we know the results of the election. Or it could be that many Republicans believe Trump will be the winner of the election, so the two statements aren’t contradictory to them.
Another good example of how question wording might have affected people’s answers came from The Economist/YouGov, which asked, “Do you think Donald Trump should nominate someone to fill the vacancy, or should the seat remain vacant until a new president takes office in January 2021?” Referring to the seat as “remain[ing] vacant,” rather than saying that winner of the election would fill it, might have emphasized to respondents that the Supreme Court would be understaffed for at least four months in this scenario; the use of the phrase “new president” might also have implied “not Trump.” That could explain why this was one of the best polls for McConnell and Trump: Respondents supported waiting to fill the seat by only a 46 percent to 41 percent margin.
Overall, it seems clear that forging ahead with the confirmation process now is somewhere between a mildly unpopular decision and a very unpopular one. But it’s unclear whether it will actually hurt Republicans at the ballot box. As I wrote on Tuesday, only 5 percent of registered voters told SurveyMonkey/Insider that the Supreme Court vacancy made them less certain of their vote, and a plurality of respondents told Reuters/Ipsos that it would have no impact on their presidential vote.
And although the choice of who succeeds Ginsburg is important to many Americans — “very important” to 52 percent of them and “somewhat important” to 23 percent, according to The Economist/YouGov — it might not be as important as the other issues they were already basing their vote on. According to the HuffPost/YouGov survey, only 21 percent of voters said the Supreme Court is one of their top three issue priorities — well behind the economy (42 percent), the coronavirus (41 percent) and health care (34 percent).
Other polling bites
An Ipsos/ABC News poll has found that 69 percent of Americans don’t have confidence in Trump’s assurances that a coronavirus vaccine would be effective; only 27 percent placed a “great deal” or “good amount” of confidence in the president. In addition, the pollster found that the number of Americans who said they are likely to get the vaccine has dropped from 74 percent in May to 64 percent in September.
According to a Harvard Institute of Politics survey, 63 percent of young Americans (under age 30) said they would “definitely” vote in the general election — higher than the 47 percent who said so in 2016. Among these young likely voters, Biden held a 60 percent to 27 percent lead.
Traditional campaign field organizations — like knocking on doors to ask people for their vote — have been greatly diminished in 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic. Indeed, some Democrats are worried that Biden’s campaign is doing so little on-the-ground outreach. But a new Morning Consult/Politico survey may validate Biden’s approach: 63 percent of voters said they felt apprehensive about answering the door for canvassers, while just 28 percent said they were comfortable with it.
The race in California’s 53rd Congressional District won’t help decide who controls the U.S. House; the campaign is between two Democrats who both advanced from March’s all-party primary. But there are still big differences between 31-year-old self-funder Sara Jacobs, a moderate, and San Diego City Council President Georgette Gómez, a progressive who would also be the first openly LGBTQ Latina in Congress. But a new SurveyUSA poll conducted for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune gives Jacobs a 38 percent to 24 percent lead in the general election.
Just want 2020 to be over already? You’re in good company. When YouGov asked Americans how the year 2020 has been for them, 21 percent said “bad,” and another 21 percent said “terrible.” While 37 percent of Americans said 2020 has been “okay,” only 12 percent said it has been “good,” and just 5 percent said it has been “great.”
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 42.9 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 53.2 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -10.3 points). At this time last week, 43.3 percent approved and 52.7 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -9.5 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 41.6 percent and a disapproval rating of 54.7 percent, for a net approval rating of -13.0 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 6.4 percentage points (48.8 percent to 42.3 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 6.4 points (48.6 percent to 42.2 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 7.4 points (48.3 percent to 41.0 percent).
Derek Shan contributed research.
Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.