fivethirtyeight--2020-06-09--What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina and West Virginia

Election season once again forges ahead on Tuesday , as five states — Georgia , Nevada , North Dakota , South Carolina and West Virginia — hold their down-ballot primaries .
So here ’ s a look at today ’ s key races — including whom Democrats will nominate in a crucial Senate race and whether a party-switching governor will go down in defeat in West Virginia : Races to watch : U.S. Senate ; 7th , 9th and 14th congressional districts Polls close : 7 p.m. Eastern Georgia has two competitive Senate races this year , but only one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s a crowded race , too , with seven Democrats vying for the right to take on Republican Sen. David Perdue ; however , only three are serious contenders .
Election junkies will be intimately familiar with one of them : Jon Ossoff , the investigative filmmaker who grabbed national attention in 2017 as the party ’ s candidate in a closer-than-expected congressional special election .
Ossoff raised more money for that campaign than any House candidate in history , and he ’ s the party ’ s top fundraiser in this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in $ 4.1 million through May 20 ( including half a million left over from his congressional bid ) .
However , Ossoff faces some stiff competition for the nomination .
Former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson raised $ 2.5 million and has touted her two terms as mayor of Georgia ’ s third-largest city against Ossoff ’ s lack of experience .
A third contender , 2018 lieutenant governor candidate Sarah Riggs Amico , has raised $ 1.7 million , although $ 933,400 of that was self-funded .
Amico has tried to build @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tying herself to former Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams and their most prominent 2018 endorser , former President Barack Obama .
Under Georgia law , the race will go to an Aug. 11 runoff if no one gets a majority of the vote today , but two recent polls suggest Ossoff could do just that .
He received 42 percent support in a Landmark Communications poll for WSB-TV and 49 percent in a Cygnal poll for an unspecified client .
Meanwhile , Tomlinson received 14-16 percent and Amico 8-9 percent in both surveys @ @ @ @ @ @ @ herself in a runoff with Ossoff if it happens .
Both parties will also choose their nominees in the 7th Congressional District , a suburban Atlanta seat that is a prime example of the Sun Belt ’ s emerging swing districts : According to calculations by Daily Kos Elections , it went from supporting Mitt Romney by 22 points in 2012 to supporting President Trump by 6 points in 2016 to being the closest U.S. House race in the entire country in 2018 .
After winning by just 433 votes , GOP Rep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and a crowded field is now jockeying to succeed him .
Like Georgia ’ s Senate race , it seems there ’ s a good chance of a runoff , too .
On the Democratic side , public policy professor Carolyn Bourdeaux , the candidate who almost beat Woodall in 2018 , has the inside track with her preexisting name recognition and $ 1.7 million raised .
However , two big names in Georgia Democratic politics — former Sen. Max Cleland and former Gov .
Roy Barnes — caused a stir when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Air Force veteran and state Sen. Zahra Karinshak .
And don ’ t count out activist Nabilah Islam , who raised more than $ 619,000 and enjoys the endorsement of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , and state Rep. Brenda Lopez Romero , considered a rising star in the state party .
For Republicans , military veteran Dr. Richard McCormick leads the “ anti-establishment conservative ” lane : He ’ s been endorsed by the political arm of the House Freedom Caucus and the Club for Growth , which has poured almost half a million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opponent , state Sen. Renee Unterman , is hard to peg ideologically : She has a terrible relationship with Republican leadership after being ousted as chair of the Senate Health Committee , but she was also a leading supporter of Georgia ’ s new law to ban abortions once fetal cardiac activity can be detected .
And former Home Depot executive Lynne Homrich has nearly matched McCormick and Unterman on the fundraising front — all three have amassed around $ 1 million ( including varying levels of self-funding ) .
A May poll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Growth ( so take it with a grain of salt ) gave McCormick 41 percent , Unterman 23 percent , Homrich 7 percent and all other candidates 5 percent .
In addition , there are two open seats — the 9th District and the 14th District — with wide-open Republican primaries .
However , they are two of the reddest districts in the entire House and will likely remain GOP territory , but they have not been without drama .
Republican primary candidates state Rep. Matt Gurtler in the 9th and businesswoman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ controversy after photos emerged of them posing with a notorious local white supremacist .
Facebook also recently took down one of Greene ’ s campaign videos that showed her arming a semi-automatic rifle and telling “ antifa terrorists ” to “ stay the hell out of Northwest Georgia.
” In South Carolina ’ s 1st Congressional District , the Republican primary is the race to watch .
The winner will face Rep. Joe Cunningham , one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the House , in a seat that voted for Trump by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rep. Nancy Mace or Mount Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing go on to win in November , it could help the GOP expand its small base of female House members .
Mace looks to have a leg up on Landing , with support from House Republican leadership and the Club for Growth , which has spent just over $ 500,000 .
Mace has also raised more than twice as much as Landing — $ 1.4 million to $ 630,000 — and she led Landing by 29 points in an April WPA Intelligence survey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Club for Growth .
As the first woman to graduate from The Citadel , the military college located in Charleston , Mace has a compelling story , too , but don ’ t discount Landing — she has the endorsement of former Sen. Jim DeMint and national groups such as the Republican Main Street Partnership PAC , Right Women PAC and House Freedom Fund .
Landing has attacked Mace for failing to oppose abortion , arguing that Mace is “ not much different ” from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi because Mace didn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in signing a legal brief to call for the defunding of Planned Parenthood .
Previously , Mace supported rape and incest exceptions in South Carolina ’ s bill to ban abortions once fetal cardiac activity can be detected , sharing in a floor speech that she had been raped at 16 .
Two other candidates are contesting the primary , so if neither Mace nor Landing win a majority today , a runoff between the top two vote-getters will take place on June 23 .
Republican Gov .
Jim Justice , who switched @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrat in 2016 , is seeking renomination now as a Republican .
And back in April , he appeared vulnerable because of mediocre approval ratings , a spluttering response to the coronavirus pandemic and public opposition from some GOP county committees .
But he seems to be on firmer footing now due to his performance in daily news conferences on the health crisis , public exposure his rivals can not easily counter .
The billionaire coal magnate has touted himself as a “ straight shooter ” in an ad where he ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s endorsement , which can ’ t hurt in a state the president carried by 42 points in 2016 .
But even though Justice has largely self-funded his campaign , he ’ s actually been outspent nearly two to one by former West Virginia Secretary of Commerce Woody Thrasher , who ’ s almost entirely self-funding .
Like Justice , Thrasher is a former Democrat , and he actually served in Justice ’ s administration until 2018 .
The other candidate making some noise in the race is former state Del .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ be the lone GOP contender to win an election as a Republican .
Yet Justice appears to be in good shape : A Triton Research & Polling/WMOV poll in late May found Justice at 53 percent , well ahead of Folk ( 15 percent ) and Thrasher ( 14 percent ) .
Conversely , the Democratic primary looks very competitive , as the Triton survey found Kanawha County Commissioner Ben Salango at 30 percent , community organizer Stephen Smith at 27 percent and state Sen. Ron Stollings at about 10 percent .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sen. Joe Manchin ’ s endorsement , and the more progressive Smith have similar fundraising numbers that put them well ahead of Stollings .
But given West Virginia ’ s rapid shift to the right in recent years , the Democratic winner will be a long shot in the general election .
A fractious GOP race featuring former wrestler Dan Rodimer and former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz will decide who faces Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in the swingy Nevada 3rd District .
At this point , Rodimer looks favored to some extent .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( $ 165,000 of which is his own money ) and earned support from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and the National Rifle Association .
But Schwartz , who lost badly in the 2018 GOP gubernatorial primary , has loaned his campaign nearly $ 580,000 and run ads attacking Rodimer for a past battery arrest .
Meanwhile , ESAFund , a conservative super PAC , is running ads accusing Scwhartz of being a career politician , calling him “ swamp Dan Schwartz.
” But whichever Republican wins today , he will enter the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lee , who has $ 2 million in her campaign account .
Lastly , in the 4th District , Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford could be vulnerable in November after admitting to an extramarital affair last month , as such scandals can hurt a candidate ’ s vote share .
It ’ s not clear which of the eight GOP candidates will win today ’ s primary — perhaps former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant or businesswoman Lisa Song Sutton , both of whom were identified by the National Republican Congressional Committee ’ s Young @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but even still , Horsford will likely start the general election campaign as a favorite .
We ’ ll be watching to see how these closely watched races play out tonight .
And although we won ’ t have a live blog , make sure to check back for our reactions to what happened in these key primary contests and what the results might mean for November .

Election season once again forges ahead on Tuesday, as five states — Georgia, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina and West Virginia — hold their down-ballot primaries. So here’s a look at today’s key races — including whom Democrats will nominate in a crucial Senate race and whether a party-switching governor will go down in defeat in West Virginia:
[Related: The Latest Political Polls Collected By FiveThirtyEight]
Georgia
Races to watch: U.S. Senate; 7th, 9th and 14th congressional districts
Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern
Georgia has two competitive Senate races this year, but only one holds its primary today. It’s a crowded race, too, with seven Democrats vying for the right to take on Republican Sen. David Perdue; however, only three are serious contenders. Election junkies will be intimately familiar with one of them: Jon Ossoff, the investigative filmmaker who grabbed national attention in 2017 as the party’s candidate in a closer-than-expected congressional special election. Ossoff raised more money for that campaign than any House candidate in history, and he’s the party’s top fundraiser in this year’s Senate race too, raking in $4.1 million through May 20 (including half a million left over from his congressional bid).
However, Ossoff faces some stiff competition for the nomination. Former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson raised $2.5 million and has touted her two terms as mayor of Georgia’s third-largest city against Ossoff’s lack of experience. A third contender, 2018 lieutenant governor candidate Sarah Riggs Amico, has raised $1.7 million, although $933,400 of that was self-funded. Amico has tried to build on her past profile, running ads tying herself to former Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams and their most prominent 2018 endorser, former President Barack Obama.
Under Georgia law, the race will go to an Aug. 11 runoff if no one gets a majority of the vote today, but two recent polls suggest Ossoff could do just that. He received 42 percent support in a Landmark Communications poll for WSB-TV and 49 percent in a Cygnal poll for an unspecified client. Meanwhile, Tomlinson received 14-16 percent and Amico 8-9 percent in both surveys, making Tomlinson the likeliest to find herself in a runoff with Ossoff if it happens.
Both parties will also choose their nominees in the 7th Congressional District, a suburban Atlanta seat that is a prime example of the Sun Belt’s emerging swing districts: According to calculations by Daily Kos Elections, it went from supporting Mitt Romney by 22 points in 2012 to supporting President Trump by 6 points in 2016 to being the closest U.S. House race in the entire country in 2018. After winning by just 433 votes, GOP Rep. Rob Woodall quickly announced his retirement, and a crowded field is now jockeying to succeed him. Like Georgia’s Senate race, it seems there’s a good chance of a runoff, too.
On the Democratic side, public policy professor Carolyn Bourdeaux, the candidate who almost beat Woodall in 2018, has the inside track with her preexisting name recognition and $1.7 million raised. However, two big names in Georgia Democratic politics — former Sen. Max Cleland and former Gov. Roy Barnes — caused a stir when they unendorsed Bourdeaux in order to support Air Force veteran and state Sen. Zahra Karinshak. And don’t count out activist Nabilah Islam, who raised more than $619,000 and enjoys the endorsement of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and state Rep. Brenda Lopez Romero, considered a rising star in the state party.
For Republicans, military veteran Dr. Richard McCormick leads the “anti-establishment conservative” lane: He’s been endorsed by the political arm of the House Freedom Caucus and the Club for Growth, which has poured almost half a million dollars into the race. His main opponent, state Sen. Renee Unterman, is hard to peg ideologically: She has a terrible relationship with Republican leadership after being ousted as chair of the Senate Health Committee, but she was also a leading supporter of Georgia’s new law to ban abortions once fetal cardiac activity can be detected. And former Home Depot executive Lynne Homrich has nearly matched McCormick and Unterman on the fundraising front — all three have amassed around $1 million (including varying levels of self-funding). A May poll by WPA Intelligence sponsored by the Club for Growth (so take it with a grain of salt) gave McCormick 41 percent, Unterman 23 percent, Homrich 7 percent and all other candidates 5 percent.
In addition, there are two open seats — the 9th District and the 14th District — with wide-open Republican primaries. However, they are two of the reddest districts in the entire House and will likely remain GOP territory, but they have not been without drama. Republican primary candidates state Rep. Matt Gurtler in the 9th and businesswoman Marjorie Greene in the 14th both faced controversy after photos emerged of them posing with a notorious local white supremacist. Facebook also recently took down one of Greene’s campaign videos that showed her arming a semi-automatic rifle and telling “antifa terrorists” to “stay the hell out of Northwest Georgia.”
South Carolina
Races to watch: 1st Congressional District
Polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern
In South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, the Republican primary is the race to watch. The winner will face Rep. Joe Cunningham, one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the House, in a seat that voted for Trump by 13 points. If Republican front-runners state Rep. Nancy Mace or Mount Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing go on to win in November, it could help the GOP expand its small base of female House members.
Mace looks to have a leg up on Landing, with support from House Republican leadership and the Club for Growth, which has spent just over $500,000. Mace has also raised more than twice as much as Landing — $1.4 million to $630,000 — and she led Landing by 29 points in an April WPA Intelligence survey, though the poll was sponsored by the Club for Growth. As the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, the military college located in Charleston, Mace has a compelling story, too, but don’t discount Landing — she has the endorsement of former Sen. Jim DeMint and national groups such as the Republican Main Street Partnership PAC, Right Women PAC and House Freedom Fund. Landing has attacked Mace for failing to oppose abortion, arguing that Mace is “not much different” from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi because Mace didn’t join other South Carolina politicians in signing a legal brief to call for the defunding of Planned Parenthood. Previously, Mace supported rape and incest exceptions in South Carolina’s bill to ban abortions once fetal cardiac activity can be detected, sharing in a floor speech that she had been raped at 16.
Two other candidates are contesting the primary, so if neither Mace nor Landing win a majority today, a runoff between the top two vote-getters will take place on June 23.
West Virginia
Races to watch: Governor
Polls close: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
Republican Gov. Jim Justice, who switched parties in 2017 after winning as a Democrat in 2016, is seeking renomination now as a Republican. And back in April, he appeared vulnerable because of mediocre approval ratings, a spluttering response to the coronavirus pandemic and public opposition from some GOP county committees. But he seems to be on firmer footing now due to his performance in daily news conferences on the health crisis, public exposure his rivals cannot easily counter.
The billionaire coal magnate has touted himself as a “straight shooter” in an ad where he’s skeet shooting. Justice also has Trump’s endorsement, which can’t hurt in a state the president carried by 42 points in 2016. But even though Justice has largely self-funded his campaign, he’s actually been outspent nearly two to one by former West Virginia Secretary of Commerce Woody Thrasher, who’s almost entirely self-funding. Like Justice, Thrasher is a former Democrat, and he actually served in Justice’s administration until 2018. The other candidate making some noise in the race is former state Del. Mike Folk, who also happens to be the lone GOP contender to win an election as a Republican. Yet Justice appears to be in good shape: A Triton Research & Polling/WMOV poll in late May found Justice at 53 percent, well ahead of Folk (15 percent) and Thrasher (14 percent).
Conversely, the Democratic primary looks very competitive, as the Triton survey found Kanawha County Commissioner Ben Salango at 30 percent, community organizer Stephen Smith at 27 percent and state Sen. Ron Stollings at about 10 percent. The relatively moderate Salango, who has Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s endorsement, and the more progressive Smith have similar fundraising numbers that put them well ahead of Stollings. But given West Virginia’s rapid shift to the right in recent years, the Democratic winner will be a long shot in the general election.
Nevada
Races to watch: 3rd and 4th congressional districts
Polls close: 10 p.m. Eastern
A fractious GOP race featuring former wrestler Dan Rodimer and former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz will decide who faces Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in the swingy Nevada 3rd District. At this point, Rodimer looks favored to some extent. He’s raised around $750,000 ($165,000 of which is his own money) and earned support from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and the National Rifle Association. But Schwartz, who lost badly in the 2018 GOP gubernatorial primary, has loaned his campaign nearly $580,000 and run ads attacking Rodimer for a past battery arrest. Meanwhile, ESAFund, a conservative super PAC, is running ads accusing Scwhartz of being a career politician, calling him “swamp Dan Schwartz.” But whichever Republican wins today, he will enter the general election campaign as an underdog against Lee, who has $2 million in her campaign account.
Lastly, in the 4th District, Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford could be vulnerable in November after admitting to an extramarital affair last month, as such scandals can hurt a candidate’s vote share. It’s not clear which of the eight GOP candidates will win today’s primary — perhaps former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant or businesswoman Lisa Song Sutton, both of whom were identified by the National Republican Congressional Committee’s Young Guns program as potentially competitive candidates — but even still, Horsford will likely start the general election campaign as a favorite.
[Related: What The June 2 Primaries Can Tell Us About November]
We’ll be watching to see how these closely watched races play out tonight. And although we won’t have a live blog, make sure to check back for our reactions to what happened in these key primary contests and what the results might mean for November.
‘I don’t buy that locations (of party conventions) matter’: Nate Silver


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-09--1968 Isn’t The Only Parallel For This Political Moment

When protests kicked off throughout the nation a week and a half ago , commentators turned to history to make sense of events .
One year dominated the conversation : 1968 .
Racial tensions , clashes between police and protesters , a general sense of chaos — 1968 and 2020 seemed to have a lot in common .
Observers wrote about how Trump ’ s use of “ law and order ” rhetoric echoed Richard Nixon and George Wallace in 1968 .
The comparison makes broader sense , too : 1968 was a destabilizing year in American politics , marked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of racist oppression , assassinations , violence at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago ( classified later as a “ police riot ” ) and protests against the Vietnam War .
Racial tensions and inequality were at the center of the instability that year , with the assassination of Martin Luther King , Jr. sparking uprisings in cities across the country .
But 1968 isn ’ t the only chapter in American history that ’ s relevant to the current crisis .
America has a long history of racial injustice , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ precedent for the current environment .
History has a way of building on itself ; the injustices of one generation are passed on to the next , even as incremental progress is made .
This is why I want to share with you three other episodes that also help contextualize the moment we ’ re in now .
They , like 1968 and the broader Civil Rights movement , highlight the depths of violence and injustice that black Americans have faced , and explain why everyday political processes have failed to bring about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ saw two connected developments that still shape the dynamics of policing in the U.S. First , in 1991 , before there were cell phones everywhere , a witness in Los Angeles caught police officers beating Rodney King on a hand-held camcorder , and the video caught the nation ’ s attention .
The four officers charged in the incident were acquitted , which sparked further national outrage , and some Los Angeles residents took to the streets , turning to violence and destruction of property .
In total , the demonstrations lasted for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is different in important ways from the protests happening now over George Floyd ’ s death , but there are still some similarities .
Namely , it was a high-profile incident of police brutality that underscored just how differently police treat black Americans from white Americans .
Additionally , a bystander ’ s video recording of the officers beating King brought the incident to national audiences , heightening a broad sense of injustice when the verdict was announced .
The fallout after the King verdict is worth considering in this moment .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ event triggered lower public trust in the police in Los Angeles , especially among African Americans .
The role of the federal government is instructive here as well .
In 1992 , California Gov .
Pete Wilson requested military assistance under the Insurrection Act of 1807 , which Trump has suggested he might also invoke now .
But LA ’ s ordeal also prompted federal change — Congress passed legislation allowing the Department of Justice to order reforms of police departments found to have engaged in misconduct .
That ability has allowed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ root out poor practices .
This oversight , however , has not been enough to prevent police killings , as we saw again with Floyd .
This provision was also part of a larger piece of anti-crime legislation — the now somewhat-infamous 1994 crime bill that helped create the mass incarceration crisis and forced recent Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden to confront their past stances on crime .
The crime bill arguably helped to create some of the challenges today ’ s protesters are responding to .
As sociologist Philip @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the bill “ flooded black communities with police , helped states to build prisons and established harsher sentencing policies.
” These policies not only helped to create the conditions for further police violence , but by expanding policing and incarceration in the U.S. , they also helped to diminish the political power of many black communities through disenfranchisement and disengagement .
The point is that while focusing national attention on police brutality brought about needed change in some respects , reforms fall short when the system charged with implementing that change has racist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ended slavery in 1865 , there was no road map for what Southern society would look like , but white Americans quickly adoped two major changes that harmed formerly enslaved people .
First , Southern states passed laws restricting black citizens ’ freedoms and essentially preserving the abuses of slavery .
Second , violence against freed people living in those areas changed form but very much continued , and included the destruction of homes and churches , and sexual violence .
Particularly relevant to the current moment : Then-President Andrew Johnson allowed all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ extend federal protection to the victims of the violence that Southern whites were engaging in , and , through his liberal use of pardons and lax loyalty requirements , he even allowed former Confederate leaders to find important roles in new state governments .
These individuals , once in power , enacted oppressive measures .
As historian Annette Gordon-Reed describes in her biography of Johnson , simple things like hunting and fishing became criminal activities for many black Americans , meaning they were increasingly dependent on their employers for their livelihoods .
Johnson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and non-state violence against southern blacks deeply shaped American racial politics .
The laws states adopted in this period ultimately created the status quo that the civils rights movement of the 1960s pushed back against .
But this historical period is also a pivotal one in understanding race relations in America today as it highlights the lasting repercussions of morally bankrupts presidential judgment .
As my colleague Perry Bacon and I wrote a few days ago , the events of the last few days — and years — suggest that Trump is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those protesting racial injustice , and is , at best , indifferent to those goals .
Experts have compared Johnson to Trump for years .
History shows us that when federal leaders ignore racial injustice and violence — and certainly when they embody and enshrine it — that injustice and violence continues unabated , even if its form changes .
Early 1900s : Black Americans organized and met opposition at every turn The power structure created after the Civil War led to a lynching crisis in the South ( and elsewhere in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lost in this brutal and inhumane system of vigilante justice — journalist Ida B .
Wells , for instance , wrote extensively to document the violence of lynching and to spread awareness nationwide about what was happening .
But it is also in this dark chapter of American history that black American activists entered a new phase in organizing against systemic racism , using a variety of approaches .
As political scientist Megan Ming Francis has written , this period gave birth to civil rights organizations like the NAACP , which pushed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House and the courts .
Those efforts made a real difference .
Francis emphasizes the way in which black Americans organized and achieved these changes despite their exclusion from much of the political process and lack of traditional political power .
These groups increased public awareness , improved legal standards and persuaded presidents to publicly denounce lynching .
The struggles of this movement , however , also illustrate how slow and frustrating it can be to work through official government channels .
For instance , at the urging of these early civil rights @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an anti-lynching bill .
But the bill died in the Senate after a filibuster , and no federal anti-lynching law was ever passed .
( The latest anti-lynching bill was held up in the Senate as recently as June 4 , 2020 . )
The American political system makes change difficult .
In both Congress and the White House , Southern votes exerted a great deal of influence , and the opponents of an anti-lynching bill had both political power and the power of the status quo .
Every moment in history is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parallels for what ’ s happening in 2020 .
However , looking at other points in both the distant and recent past helps us see how deeply racial injustice is ingrained in the American system .
The 1968 comparison can be helpful , but it also tempts us to frame the situation in terms of tranquility and unrest .
But “ tranquility ” has been defined by those in power — almost always whites .
Looking at other events helps answer some deeper questions about why people have taken to the streets to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ able to accomplish more faster by disrupting “ normal ” life .
Because the system itself is part of the problem , politics , again and again , has set up the rules to make it difficult to pursue accountability and justice within the system .

1968 Isn’t The Only Parallel For This Political Moment Black Americans have a long history of fighting for racial justice — and the system has a long history of failing them.
When protests kicked off throughout the nation a week and a half ago, commentators turned to history to make sense of events. One year dominated the conversation: 1968. Racial tensions, clashes between police and protesters, a general sense of chaos — 1968 and 2020 seemed to have a lot in common. Observers wrote about how Trump’s use of “law and order” rhetoric echoed Richard Nixon and George Wallace in 1968. The comparison makes broader sense, too: 1968 was a destabilizing year in American politics, marked by Civil Rights protests, uprisings born out of racist oppression, assassinations, violence at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago (classified later as a “police riot”) and protests against the Vietnam War. Racial tensions and inequality were at the center of the instability that year, with the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. sparking uprisings in cities across the country.
[Related: How Much Can History Teach Us About These Protests?]
But 1968 isn’t the only chapter in American history that’s relevant to the current crisis. America has a long history of racial injustice, which makes it difficult to isolate any one precedent for the current environment. History has a way of building on itself; the injustices of one generation are passed on to the next, even as incremental progress is made. This is why I want to share with you three other episodes that also help contextualize the moment we’re in now. They, like 1968 and the broader Civil Rights movement, highlight the depths of violence and injustice that black Americans have faced, and explain why everyday political processes have failed to bring about lasting systemic change.
1990s: National attention on police brutality spurs action … sort of
The early 1990s saw two connected developments that still shape the dynamics of policing in the U.S. First, in 1991, before there were cell phones everywhere, a witness in Los Angeles caught police officers beating Rodney King on a hand-held camcorder, and the video caught the nation’s attention. The four officers charged in the incident were acquitted, which sparked further national outrage, and some Los Angeles residents took to the streets, turning to violence and destruction of property. In total, the demonstrations lasted for five days.
The Rodney King episode is different in important ways from the protests happening now over George Floyd’s death, but there are still some similarities. Namely, it was a high-profile incident of police brutality that underscored just how differently police treat black Americans from white Americans. Additionally, a bystander’s video recording of the officers beating King brought the incident to national audiences, heightening a broad sense of injustice when the verdict was announced.
[Related: De-escalation Keeps Protesters And Police Safer. Departments Respond With Force Anyway.]
The fallout after the King verdict is worth considering in this moment. For one, some research shows that the event triggered lower public trust in the police in Los Angeles, especially among African Americans.
The role of the federal government is instructive here as well. In 1992, California Gov. Pete Wilson requested military assistance under the Insurrection Act of 1807, which Trump has suggested he might also invoke now. But LA’s ordeal also prompted federal change — Congress passed legislation allowing the Department of Justice to order reforms of police departments found to have engaged in misconduct. That ability has allowed the federal government to investigate police departments and root out poor practices. This oversight, however, has not been enough to prevent police killings, as we saw again with Floyd.
This provision was also part of a larger piece of anti-crime legislation — the now somewhat-infamous 1994 crime bill that helped create the mass incarceration crisis and forced recent Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden to confront their past stances on crime. The crime bill arguably helped to create some of the challenges today’s protesters are responding to. As sociologist Philip McHarris explained in The Washington Post, the bill “flooded black communities with police, helped states to build prisons and established harsher sentencing policies.” These policies not only helped to create the conditions for further police violence, but by expanding policing and incarceration in the U.S., they also helped to diminish the political power of many black communities through disenfranchisement and disengagement.
The point is that while focusing national attention on police brutality brought about needed change in some respects, reforms fall short when the system charged with implementing that change has racist origins.
Reconstruction: The federal government fails to protect black lives
After the American Civil War ended slavery in 1865, there was no road map for what Southern society would look like, but white Americans quickly adoped two major changes that harmed formerly enslaved people. First, Southern states passed laws restricting black citizens’ freedoms and essentially preserving the abuses of slavery. Second, violence against freed people living in those areas changed form but very much continued, and included the destruction of homes and churches, and sexual violence.
Particularly relevant to the current moment: Then-President Andrew Johnson allowed all this to happen. He failed to extend federal protection to the victims of the violence that Southern whites were engaging in, and, through his liberal use of pardons and lax loyalty requirements, he even allowed former Confederate leaders to find important roles in new state governments. These individuals, once in power, enacted oppressive measures. As historian Annette Gordon-Reed describes in her biography of Johnson, simple things like hunting and fishing became criminal activities for many black Americans, meaning they were increasingly dependent on their employers for their livelihoods.
Johnson’s decision to allow both state and non-state violence against southern blacks deeply shaped American racial politics. The laws states adopted in this period ultimately created the status quo that the civils rights movement of the 1960s pushed back against.
[Related: Trump’s Use Of Tear Gas To Break Up A Protest Undermined Three Core Values Of American Democracy]
But this historical period is also a pivotal one in understanding race relations in America today as it highlights the lasting repercussions of morally bankrupts presidential judgment. As my colleague Perry Bacon and I wrote a few days ago, the events of the last few days — and years — suggest that Trump is not interested in using federal power to help those protesting racial injustice, and is, at best, indifferent to those goals. Experts have compared Johnson to Trump for years. History shows us that when federal leaders ignore racial injustice and violence — and certainly when they embody and enshrine it — that injustice and violence continues unabated, even if its form changes.
Early 1900s: Black Americans organized and met opposition at every turn
The power structure created after the Civil War led to a lynching crisis in the South (and elsewhere in the U.S.). Thousands of lives were lost in this brutal and inhumane system of vigilante justice — journalist Ida B. Wells, for instance, wrote extensively to document the violence of lynching and to spread awareness nationwide about what was happening.
But it is also in this dark chapter of American history that black American activists entered a new phase in organizing against systemic racism, using a variety of approaches. As political scientist Megan Ming Francis has written, this period gave birth to civil rights organizations like the NAACP, which pushed to change policy through Congress, the White House and the courts.
Those efforts made a real difference. Francis emphasizes the way in which black Americans organized and achieved these changes despite their exclusion from much of the political process and lack of traditional political power. These groups increased public awareness, improved legal standards and persuaded presidents to publicly denounce lynching.
[Related: What Protests Can (And Can’t) Do]
The struggles of this movement, however, also illustrate how slow and frustrating it can be to work through official government channels. For instance, at the urging of these early civil rights activists, the House of Representatives passed an anti-lynching bill. But the bill died in the Senate after a filibuster, and no federal anti-lynching law was ever passed. (The latest anti-lynching bill was held up in the Senate as recently as June 4, 2020.) The American political system makes change difficult. In both Congress and the White House, Southern votes exerted a great deal of influence, and the opponents of an anti-lynching bill had both political power and the power of the status quo.
Every moment in history is distinct, and there are no perfect parallels for what’s happening in 2020. However, looking at other points in both the distant and recent past helps us see how deeply racial injustice is ingrained in the American system. The 1968 comparison can be helpful, but it also tempts us to frame the situation in terms of tranquility and unrest. But “tranquility” has been defined by those in power — almost always whites. Looking at other events helps answer some deeper questions about why people have taken to the streets to demand change and why protesters may be able to accomplish more faster by disrupting “normal” life. Because the system itself is part of the problem, politics, again and again, has set up the rules to make it difficult to pursue accountability and justice within the system.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Americans Dislike How Trump Is Handling The Crises


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-09--The Economists In Our Survey Are Slightly More Hopeful Than They Were Two Weeks Ago

The National Bureau of Economic Research announced on Monday that the U.S. is officially in a recession .
But while the country ’ s economy is still in dire straits , economists now think the recovery might be quicker — and less painful — than they were expecting a few weeks ago .
Our survey of 34 quantitative macroeconomic economists , conducted in partnership with the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business , found that respondents are increasingly optimistic about the country ’ s economic trajectory — at least when it comes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because of the jobs report released last week .
Many of our sample of economists , who work in academic settings , had predicted that the unemployment rate would rise even further — in our first survey in this series , the median prediction was 20 percent .
That turned out to be pretty far off the mark : The unemployment rate actually fell from 14.7 percent in April to 13.3 percent in May .
The economists who responded to this week ’ s survey , conducted June 5 through 8 , expect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : On average , they estimated that the unemployment rate for June will be 12.9 percent .
They also thought the labor market will be in an even better position at the end of the year .
The average forecast for the unemployment rate in December was 10.6 percent , and the consensus forecast was that there is a 46 percent chance of the unemployment rate dropping below 10 percent by the end of 2020 ( as opposed to an 18 percent chance in our last survey ) .
But the better-than-expected jobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in our survey that the economy will be back to normal anytime soon .
Their forecasts for growth in gross domestic product , for instance , didn ’ t change much over the past few weeks .
Respondents do think the economy will be growing by the end of the year — but nowhere near as quickly as it fell .
“ Clearly , the economy has started to climb out of the hole , but it ’ s a very deep hole to start with , and our respondents are not confident @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sustained recovery , ” said Allan Timmermann , professor of finance and economics at the University of California , San Diego .
Timmermann and Jonathan Wright of Johns Hopkins University have been consulting with us on the design of the survey .
The forecasters were moved by last week ’ s jobs news , at least .
Those who participated in both rounds of the survey revised their estimates for December ’ s unemployment rate down by 2.1 percentage points , on average .
Mainly , that came from forecasters who had expected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coming down off those estimates : The third of respondents who forecast the highest median December unemployment rates in Round 1 revised their estimated rate down by an average of 3.7 percentage points .
( The third who forecasted the lowest rates in Round 1 , meanwhile , only revised their estimates down by an average of 0.4 points in Round 2 . )
One of the economists who reduced their estimates the most was Wright .
“ I was very surprised by the May jobs number , ” he said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 17 or 18 percent in June with continuing job losses .
It looks to me like the process of calling people back to work has begun earlier than I had expected .
The fact that it begins early somewhat reduces the damage done and so makes the outlook for the second half of the year better.
” Valerie Ramey , professor of economics at University of California , San Diego , echoed Wright ’ s more hopeful sentiments .
“ The jobs report for May was a complete surprise to me ( and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ States are loosening up restrictions faster than I anticipated.
” She added that the combination of those two factors — along with what she saw as “ promising evidence on the COVID front ” — made her more optimistic about both the pandemic and the economy .
“ If COVID is not so deadly , I think that even a second spike in cases will not result in severe lockdowns , such as the one we have just experienced.
” But not every expert we surveyed was equally swayed by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin , said he was weighing the Bureau of Labor Statistics ’ ongoing difficulties in collecting data on laid-off workers , along with developments in COVID-19 cases .
He kept his December unemployment forecast the same as it had been two weeks ago , when his forecast was among the most optimistic .
He told us he anticipated that the BLS will eventually be able to resolve an issue with worker classification that may have excluded some furloughed workers , which could cancel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to work .
Unlike Ramey , he was expecting a resurgence in cases that could lead to new state-level lockdowns .
“ In this respect I ’ m more of a pessimist than the average respondent , I expect , ” he said .
And even if the latest consensus is that the labor market is rebounding more quickly than expected , the economists weren ’ t optimistic that unemployment will plummet over the coming months .
In our first survey , experts thought there was a 37 percent probability that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ single digits until the second half of 2021 or later ; now that probability is only 20 percent .
Yet they still think it ’ s more likely than not that unemployment stays above 10 percent the entire rest of 2020 .
“ The rebound in jobs in the May data may be the easy part of the recovery in the sense that some workers were furloughed and are being called back as the economy reopens , ” Wright said .
“ But other workers have more permanently lost their jobs.
” Still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unemployment overall .
That was also true for the experts ’ assessment of what will happen with inflation .
We asked experts whether they thought the core personal consumption expenditure inflation rate would either drop below zero ( i.e.
, deflation ) , stay between 0 and 3 percent — where it has consistently sat for decades — or rise above 3 percent by the end of 2022 .
Our sample of economists thought there was an 80 percent chance it would stay in its usual range , with a 13 percent chance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 7 percent chance of deflation .
So despite concerns that the Federal Reserve ’ s monetary response to the coronavirus could cause runaway inflation or deflation , the consensus is that inflation rates will remain in a relatively normal range .
That measured confidence did not extend to overall economic growth , however , as the panel ’ s forecasts for GDP barely budged over the past two weeks .
The average estimated second-quarter ( annualized , quarter-over-quarter ) GDP growth in the survey is now -26.1 percent , with an 80 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent .
While respondents thought there was slightly more of a chance that GDP recovers sooner than 2022 , they increased the odds of it happening by the middle of 2021 only from 11 percent to 12 percent : Although respondents think GDP will probably be growing at the end of the year ( with an expected final-quarter growth estimate of +4.2 percent on average ) , that number is unlikely to be large enough to offset the economic damage from when the recession began — although it also depends , of course @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the third quarter .
And uncertainty about GDP remains as high as ever .
In fact , the average range between the upper and lower bounds of respondents ’ 80 percent confidence interval about second-quarter GDP growth increased from 17.5 percentage points two weeks ago to 18.2 points this week .
Karen Dynan , an economics professor at Harvard University and former chief economist at the U.S. Department of Treasury , said she remained pessimistic about second-quarter GDP because the reopening of the economy was mostly unfolding the way she expected .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ us , was trying to predict what will happen in the second half of the year because there are still so many unknowns — like our limited understanding of the virus , a lack of information about how consumer and household finances are being affected , and how effective the government will be at implementing public health measures that make people feel comfortable leaving their homes again .
So while the jobs report appears to have made many of the respondents in the survey think the recovery won ’ t be as painful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t think it ’ s a sign that the economy will be bouncing back quickly .
Overall , the economists stressed that we shouldn ’ t read too much into one good jobs report — and that the jobs report provided only a small measure of hope to an economic outlook that remains bleak otherwise .
“ In the recovery , we will see some months and quarters of much improved economic conditions , but this still does not mean that the economy is back to health , ” Wright said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ great growth , but it was still in the depths of the Great Depression .
”

The National Bureau of Economic Research announced on Monday that the U.S. is officially in a recession. But while the country’s economy is still in dire straits, economists now think the recovery might be quicker — and less painful — than they were expecting a few weeks ago. Our survey of 34 quantitative macroeconomic economists, conducted in partnership with the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, found that respondents are increasingly optimistic about the country’s economic trajectory — at least when it comes to employment.
That newfound hope is mostly because of the jobs report released last week. Many of our sample of economists, who work in academic settings, had predicted that the unemployment rate would rise even further — in our first survey in this series, the median prediction was 20 percent. That turned out to be pretty far off the mark: The unemployment rate actually fell from 14.7 percent in April to 13.3 percent in May. The economists who responded to this week’s survey, conducted June 5 through 8, expect that trend to generally continue next month: On average, they estimated that the unemployment rate for June will be 12.9 percent. They also thought the labor market will be in an even better position at the end of the year. The average forecast for the unemployment rate in December was 10.6 percent, and the consensus forecast was that there is a 46 percent chance of the unemployment rate dropping below 10 percent by the end of 2020 (as opposed to an 18 percent chance in our last survey).
But the better-than-expected jobs numbers didn’t convince the economists in our survey that the economy will be back to normal anytime soon. Their forecasts for growth in gross domestic product, for instance, didn’t change much over the past few weeks. Respondents do think the economy will be growing by the end of the year — but nowhere near as quickly as it fell. “Clearly, the economy has started to climb out of the hole, but it’s a very deep hole to start with, and our respondents are not confident that we have begun a strong and sustained recovery,” said Allan Timmermann, professor of finance and economics at the University of California, San Diego. Timmermann and Jonathan Wright of Johns Hopkins University have been consulting with us on the design of the survey.
The forecasters were moved by last week’s jobs news, at least. Those who participated in both rounds of the survey revised their estimates for December’s unemployment rate down by 2.1 percentage points, on average. Mainly, that came from forecasters who had expected very bad unemployment numbers later this year coming down off those estimates: The third of respondents who forecast the highest median December unemployment rates in Round 1 revised their estimated rate down by an average of 3.7 percentage points. (The third who forecasted the lowest rates in Round 1, meanwhile, only revised their estimates down by an average of 0.4 points in Round 2.)
One of the economists who reduced their estimates the most was Wright. “I was very surprised by the May jobs number,” he said. “I had expected a number up around 17 or 18 percent in June with continuing job losses. It looks to me like the process of calling people back to work has begun earlier than I had expected. The fact that it begins early somewhat reduces the damage done and so makes the outlook for the second half of the year better.”
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Valerie Ramey, professor of economics at University of California, San Diego, echoed Wright’s more hopeful sentiments. “The jobs report for May was a complete surprise to me (and many others),” Ramey said. “States are loosening up restrictions faster than I anticipated.” She added that the combination of those two factors — along with what she saw as “promising evidence on the COVID front” — made her more optimistic about both the pandemic and the economy. “If COVID is not so deadly, I think that even a second spike in cases will not result in severe lockdowns, such as the one we have just experienced.”
But not every expert we surveyed was equally swayed by the less-horrible-than-expected unemployment figures. Menzie Chinn, professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin, said he was weighing the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ ongoing difficulties in collecting data on laid-off workers, along with developments in COVID-19 cases. He kept his December unemployment forecast the same as it had been two weeks ago, when his forecast was among the most optimistic. He told us he anticipated that the BLS will eventually be able to resolve an issue with worker classification that may have excluded some furloughed workers, which could cancel out the effect of more people going back to work. Unlike Ramey, he was expecting a resurgence in cases that could lead to new state-level lockdowns. “In this respect I’m more of a pessimist than the average respondent, I expect,” he said.
And even if the latest consensus is that the labor market is rebounding more quickly than expected, the economists weren’t optimistic that unemployment will plummet over the coming months. In our first survey, experts thought there was a 37 percent probability that the unemployment rate wouldn’t return to single digits until the second half of 2021 or later; now that probability is only 20 percent. Yet they still think it’s more likely than not that unemployment stays above 10 percent the entire rest of 2020.
“The rebound in jobs in the May data may be the easy part of the recovery in the sense that some workers were furloughed and are being called back as the economy reopens,” Wright said. “But other workers have more permanently lost their jobs.”
Still, the survey was somewhat sanguine about unemployment overall. That was also true for the experts’ assessment of what will happen with inflation. We asked experts whether they thought the core personal consumption expenditure inflation rate would either drop below zero (i.e., deflation), stay between 0 and 3 percent — where it has consistently sat for decades — or rise above 3 percent by the end of 2022. Our sample of economists thought there was an 80 percent chance it would stay in its usual range, with a 13 percent chance of inflation over 3 percent and a 7 percent chance of deflation. So despite concerns that the Federal Reserve’s monetary response to the coronavirus could cause runaway inflation or deflation, the consensus is that inflation rates will remain in a relatively normal range.
That measured confidence did not extend to overall economic growth, however, as the panel’s forecasts for GDP barely budged over the past two weeks. The average estimated second-quarter (annualized, quarter-over-quarter) GDP growth in the survey is now -26.1 percent, with an 80 percent confidence interval between -35 percent and -18 percent. While respondents thought there was slightly more of a chance that GDP recovers sooner than 2022, they increased the odds of it happening by the middle of 2021 only from 11 percent to 12 percent:
When will real GDP catch up to its pre-crisis (Q4 2019) level? Consensus-forecast probabilities for when U.S. gross domestic product will return to its pre-coronavirus level, by date of survey Probability Timeframe Round 1 (May 25) Round 2 (June 8) Earlier than the 1st half of 2021 0.6% 1.7% 1st half of 2021 10.7 10.5 2nd half of 2021 17.5 21.0 1st half of 2022 18.6 22.0 2nd half of 2022 21.4 20.1 Later than the 2nd half of 2022 31.3 24.6 Probabilities are based on the average from a survey of 34 economic experts. Source: FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Survey
Although respondents think GDP will probably be growing at the end of the year (with an expected final-quarter growth estimate of +4.2 percent on average), that number is unlikely to be large enough to offset the economic damage from when the recession began — although it also depends, of course, on how much the economy recovers in the third quarter. And uncertainty about GDP remains as high as ever. In fact, the average range between the upper and lower bounds of respondents’ 80 percent confidence interval about second-quarter GDP growth increased from 17.5 percentage points two weeks ago to 18.2 points this week.
Karen Dynan, an economics professor at Harvard University and former chief economist at the U.S. Department of Treasury, said she remained pessimistic about second-quarter GDP because the reopening of the economy was mostly unfolding the way she expected. The more difficult exercise, she told us, was trying to predict what will happen in the second half of the year because there are still so many unknowns — like our limited understanding of the virus, a lack of information about how consumer and household finances are being affected, and how effective the government will be at implementing public health measures that make people feel comfortable leaving their homes again.
So while the jobs report appears to have made many of the respondents in the survey think the recovery won’t be as painful as they initially predicted, they also don’t think it’s a sign that the economy will be bouncing back quickly. Overall, the economists stressed that we shouldn’t read too much into one good jobs report — and that the jobs report provided only a small measure of hope to an economic outlook that remains bleak otherwise.
“In the recovery, we will see some months and quarters of much improved economic conditions, but this still does not mean that the economy is back to health,” Wright said. “1933 was a year of great growth, but it was still in the depths of the Great Depression.”


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-09--Trump’s Standing In The Polls Has Worsened

In this week ’ s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the team discusses the latest polling on President Trump ’ s @ @ @ @ @ mass protests .
They also look at what young liberals think about former Vice President @ @ @ @ @ Party .

In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team discusses the latest polling on President Trump’s handling of the pandemic and mass protests. They also look at what young liberals think about former Vice President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-09--Politics Podcast: Americans Disapprove Of How Trump Is Handling The Pandemic And The Protests

Two weeks after a Minneapolis police officer killed George Floyd , sparking protests nationwide and abroad , President Trump ’ @ @ @ @ @ — and support among some leaders in his own party — is slipping .
In @ @ @ @ @ Politics podcast , the crew discusses how Americans view the president ’ s handling of @ @ @ @ @ the mass protests against police violence .
They also look at how young liberals — @ @ @ @ @ up to the protests — view both the Democratic Party and its presumptive nominee , @ @ @ @ @ .
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast : Americans Dislike How Trump Is Handling The Crises The FiveThirtyEight @ @ @ @ @ Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review @ @ @ @ @ comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
Get @ @ @ @ @ on Twitter or in the comments .

Two weeks after a Minneapolis police officer killed George Floyd, sparking protests nationwide and abroad, President Trump’s standing in the polls — and support among some leaders in his own party — is slipping. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how Americans view the president’s handling of both the coronavirus pandemic and the mass protests against police violence. They also look at how young liberals — many of whom are showing up to the protests — view both the Democratic Party and its presumptive nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Americans Dislike How Trump Is Handling The Crises
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-10--Is Public Opinion Turning Against President Trump?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight ’ s weekly politics chat .
The transcript below has been lightly edited .
sarah ( Sarah Frostenson , politics editor ) : President Trump ’ s approval rating is back in the low 40s .
He ’ s gotten poor marks for how he ’ s handled protests around George Floyd ’ s death and for how he ’ s managed the coronavirus pandemic .
A number of national polls even show the race for president widening , with former Vice President Joe Biden comfortably in the lead .
So are Americans changing their opinion of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that that ’ s the case ?
We ’ ll talk about Trump ’ s relationship with independent voters and whether he might even be losing some support among Republicans , but first , let ’ s start with overall public opinion on Trump .
Is it changing ?
Trump has had a 41 percent approval rating before — in fact , his approval rating has dropped even lower — so how do we contextualize what ’ s happening now ?
lee.drutman ( Lee Drutman , senior fellow at New America and FiveThirtyEight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not a great moment for Trump .
Polls show that three-quarters of Americans believe that there is systemic racial injustice in the U.S. , and Trump is clearly on the wrong side of public opinion at a moment in which these issues are super salient .
That has to hurt his standing .
geoffrey.skelley ( Geoffrey Skelley , elections analyst ) : It ’ s worth noting , too , that Trump ’ s recent approval slide is particularly noticeable as his numbers probably had been artificially high — the highest they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidency — thanks to a “ rally-around-the-flag effect ” due to the coronavirus crisis .
However , public opinion of his response has since soured .
Combine that with the largely negative response to his handling of the protests , and you can better understand why his approval rating has been hit so hard .
perry ( Perry Bacon Jr. , senior writer ) : At the same time , it does look like Biden is having a surge — with his average lead in the polls now around 8 points , instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do think that one CNN poll is getting too much attention and is probably shaping perceptions too much .
I don ’ t think Biden is going to win by 14 points , and I ’ m not really sure anyone else thinks that either .
It is true , though , that Biden has been leading in the polls most of the year , and Trump has been pretty unpopular for a long time .
geoffrey.skelley : I agree that it ’ s unlikely Biden is going to win by 15 points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are .
The last time a president won by a double-digit margin was all the way back in 1984 , too , so it ’ s been a long time since that happened .
lee.drutman : It ’ s important to understand a lot of Biden ’ s surge as a “ NOT TRUMP ” vote , though .
sarah : Tell us more , Lee .
lee.drutman : In that latest CNN poll that everybody ’ s buzzing about , 60 percent of Biden supporters say their vote is more of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden .
This is negative partisanship , plain and simple .
Trump has been wildly unpopular for a while , and while Biden has never generated a ton of enthusiasm , the worse Trump does , the more Biden rises .
sarah : Some of this might boil down to an obsession — is obsession the right word ?
— with treating 41 percent or 40 percent as a magical dividing line for Trump .
That is , anything below that mark means he ’ s severely underwater ; whereas , if he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his approval rating bound , so between 42 to 45 percent , he ’ s fine .
But that simplification arguably misses two things : One , 42 to 45 percent isn ’ t exactly great as you all have said .
And two , the fact that he ’ s experiencing a downturn now has to hobble his reelection chances , right ?
What do we know about incumbent presidents ’ reelection chances when they ’ ve had such low approval ratings ?
geoffrey.skelley : Gallup ’ s final polls for Jimmy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bush in 1992 put their approval ratings below 40 percent .
They both lost .
Generally , presidents who win reelection are at or above 50 percent in those polls .
lee.drutman : Two things are different about American politics in this moment , though .
One , because of Trump ’ s coalition ( more rural , more rust-belt working class , and therefore over-represented in the Electoral College ) , he can still plausibly win with just 46 percent of the popular vote .
Second , because of the power of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be popular .
He just has to be less unpopular than his opponent in a handful of key swing states .
And his campaign is definitely going to do everything between now and November to make Biden seem like a dangerous extremist radical who wants to unleash chaos and rioting and socialism on America .
sarah : Right , and Biden ’ s favorables as they currently sit aren ’ t that stellar despite his polling lead , right ?
geoffrey.skelley : But only a little bit .
Right before the 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ favorability rating ( favorable rating minus unfavorable rating ) .
Right now , Biden is at about -1 , so Trump ’ s campaign still has a long way to go in lowering that.. That said , Trump has a better net favorability rating than he did back in 2016 , too — he ’ s at -13 now compared to -21 in 2016 , thanks to some Republicans coming into Trump ’ s fold .
The 2016 election sometimes felt like a race to the bottom because you had the two most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And while the 2020 contest might feel like this sometimes , too , the candidates — at least right now — aren ’ t as unpopular .
perry : So I think something that ’ s actually more important than the recent polling shift is people like former Secretary of Defense James Mattis , former President George W. Bush and Sen. Lisa Murkowksi , in addition to other conservatives , making Trump-skeptical moves in the past week or so .
If we end up with a kind of permission structure on the right @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too extreme and not worth saving , vote for Biden or stay home and you are still a good Republican , ” that could be big .
I know — conservative elites broke with Trump in 2016 and Republican voters did not .
But Trump barely won — and more conservative elites doing this in 2020 could signal , in particular , that a certain type of Republican ( college-educated , more cosmopolitan ) can not vote Republican this year .
sarah : Perry raises an interesting point , and one I don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On the one hand , rebukes from figures like Mattis and Bush seem big , but at the same time I ’ m not sure how much they erode Trump ’ s core support .
But again , as Perry says , that ’ s not who this message is aimed at , and as we ’ ve long argued as a site , Trump ’ s base isn ’ t enough .
lee.drutman : Perry ’ s certainly right about the permission structure .
And I think there may also be some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ represents a chance to clean house in the Republican Party , and that Biden is a moderate they can live with .
I ’ m not sure how widespread this sentiment is outside of political elites , but it could be enough to sink Trump in an electorate in which even just 1 or 2 percent of voters make the difference .
sarah : But how big of a bloc of voters do we think Bush and Mattis are speaking to ?
My thought is this is either a very small group of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Trump , so I ’ m not sure how much of a factor it plays in 2020 .
I ’ m thinking , too , of all the Republicans who spoke out in 2016 and the small effect they seemed to have .
perry : The way Biden has a big electoral win ( and one that I think is possible ) is a bloc of Republicans in the suburbs of Atlanta , Dallas and Houston decide not to vote , at least for Trump .
( Maybe they just vote for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lives in the Dallas suburbs !
That seems entirely possible to me .
Not to mention , in 2018 these types of voters flipped to Democrats .
lee.drutman : I agree that it ’ s not a big bloc .
But there is a bloc of maybe 10 percent of Trump voters who are unsure of who to vote for , and they tend to be more liberal on most issues than the Republican Party as a whole .
But they are also younger , so I ’ m not sure how much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of senior Republicans have to say .
Then again , they might care more about issues of racial injustice and the future of the Republican Party beyond Trump .
perry : I am not going to be able to beat back the “ But 2016 ” rejoinder .
I get it .
I just think this race might be different .
sarah : That ’ s fair , Perry .
It ’ s a good point .
And I ’ m definitely guilty of overcompensating for 2016 from time to time .
perry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out the more likely scenario earlier — Republicans run a lot of ads attacking Biden , reminding GOP voters that Biden has taken a lot of liberal stances .
And say if Biden picks Sens .
Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren — two of the most liberal members of the Senate — as his running mate , maybe you ’ re in a situation where Trump is getting 44 percent of the vote and is viable in swing states .
geoffrey.skelley : The problem for the Trump campaign is they already have very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ really need Biden ’ s numbers to crater among independents much like Clinton ’ s did .
Biden ’ s favorables among independents are in the 30s , so they aren ’ t good , but Clinton ’ s numbers were toxic : There were polls going into Election Day where her favorability among those voters was in the 20s and her unfavorables were between 60 and 70 percent .
lee.drutman : Also , right now the public is on the side of the protesters .
But there ’ s a ( very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reform dies in the Senate , cities walk back the progressive promises they ’ re making now , and there ’ s tremendous frustration that nothing will change .
Then , protests get more aggressive , and progressive demands to “ defund the police ” become more polarizing .
An additional complication is that if many ballots wind up being cast remotely because of the coronavirus pandemic , there could be lots of first-time , vote-at-home voters .
That means enthusiasm and mobilization could be a big issue .
And I ’ m @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could go either way , helping or hurting both Democrats and Republicans .
perry : Yeah , I could picture a situation where Biden doesn ’ t motivate young black people — or young people more broadly — if he sticks to his more centrist impulses , i.e .
“ most police officers are good.
” Another potential problem for Biden could arise if Harris or Warren is on the ticket and his campaign overreaches with its promises for racial justice ( those two want to be leaders on racial justice ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deplorable ” zone .
That all could hurt Biden with white swing voters .
lee.drutman : Perry is right .
And Republican operatives almost certainly have a plan to broadcast those moves to the groups most likely to to not vote .
geoffrey.skelley : The Trump campaign even tried to dampen turnout among black voters in 2016 , for example .
sarah : These are good points , but I thought Michael Tessler over at the Washington Post ’ s Monkey Cage had some good points on why the protests won ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is especially true , if as you say , Lee , some of those Republicans who are most unsure are more likely to be more liberal on issues of racial injustice .
lee.drutman : Right — I think there is a sense among protesters and supporters that maybe this time really is different and their voices are being heard .
But turning protest into political action isn ’ t so straightforward .
And if anything comes out of Washington ( unlikely ) it will be very minor .
sarah : That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder wrote for the site , really hard to know how these protests might play out electorally , as protests can have unintended consequences .
But OK , we ’ ve talked a little about who is driving this downturn in Trump ’ s numbers , but one question I have is how do independents fit into this ?
Is Trump seriously underwater there ?
lee.drutman : As always when we ’ re talking about independents , we have to be careful .
Most independents are not swing voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ always independents .
geoffrey.skelley : Lee ’ s right that “ independent ” is a complicated label for many of the voters who self-identify that way .
For that reason , I wish more pollsters included independents who lean toward a party in their party ID breakdowns .
But what we do know is that right now Biden has an edge on Trump among independents in most recent national polls — though the leads vary quite a bit .
That CNN poll was very favorable to Biden , for instance , and it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Monmouth University poll also had him up 16 among independents .
Some other polls give Biden a smaller edge with this group — he was up 4 points in a survey from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College , for example — but they agree that Biden ’ s ahead .
lee.drutman : Interestingly , there is some evidence , too , that there are Trump-Biden voters , who tend to be economically liberal , socially conservative — like Obama-Trump voters .
My thought is some of these voters may just be perpetually dissatisfied with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
perry : And Lee , to his credit , has been writing about economically liberal , socially conservative voters since Trump ’ s rise .
But it feels like these voters may not be exactly extra-motivated by civil rights issues , right ?
sarah : That ’ s a good question , Perry .
That was definitely part of the narrative around these voters in 2016 — they broke for Trump because of their views on immigration and on racial discrimination .
It ’ s unclear to me if that will motivate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 , or if there are other considerations .
At this point , though , how sticky do we think this downturn in Trump ’ s approval rating really is ?
As we said at the outset of this chat , his approval rating has been at 41 percent before .
So do we really think a shift in public opinion is happening now ?
Or might the economy — think more news like last week ’ s job report — pose a silver lining for Trump , and his approval rating will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s had a really bad past few weeks , and the polls reflect that .
Though given just how bad a period he ’ s had , it ’ s sort of remarkable his approval rating hasn ’ t fallen further , which is a testament , I suppose , to the resilience of his 40 percent floor .
That said , I don ’ t think the economy will have that much of an effect , given how little he was rewarded for a good economy , and how little he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy .
There ’ s about 5 percent of the electorate that seems to go back and forth on Trump , mostly based on how Trump behaves , and how bad the coverage of him is .
Based on regression to the mean , I ’ d guess Trump ’ s approval rating will go back up , unless there is some kind of cascade of elite Republicans turning on him .
geoffrey.skelley : The good news for Trump is that voters aren ’ t completely short-term when it comes to their attitudes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump continues to poll decently when it comes to his handling of the economy — I suspect he ’ s still getting some credit for the strong past performance .
So economic improvement could help him .
Still , Lee ’ s right that the roaring economy didn ’ t give Trump a great overall approval rating before , so it ’ s unlikely to alone save him .
perry : I think Trump will end up back in the 42-to-43 percent approval range , which is bad , but not horrible .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ much negative coverage that I doubt he will do that particular thing again .
geoffrey.skelley : I don ’ t know , Perry .
On Tuesday , he tweeted out conspiracy theories about a man who was injured by police in Buffalo .
I wouldn ’ t bet against him not doing something !
lee.drutman : Yeah , I agree with Geoffrey .
I think Trump ’ s instinct is to create controversy , chaos and division , because he thinks that makes him look strong and leader-ish , and that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He might not break up a crowd to do another photo op , but he ’ ll continue to amplify unlikely and provocative fringe views just to set the pinballs in motion .
sarah : So to conclude , do we think there ’ s evidence that public opinion of Trump is really changing this time Or is that too hard to answer at this point ?
geoffrey.skelley : I think if Trump ’ s approval slides a little below 40 percent , we could point to this being an especially bad @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only really been there once in our tracker since the midterm , and that was during the government shutdown , when his approval fell to 39 percent .
So I think the jury is still out on this being a moment where opinions truly shift .
One other way to think about this is how much opinions against Trump have hardened .
For instance , we know that a lot of voters have said in the past they didn ’ t want to vote for Trump , and most people who disapprove of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some of those who said they “ somewhat disapprove ” now say they “ strongly disapprove ” of Trump ?
Or do they move back more to the middle , to even “ somewhat approve ?
” That will help determine whether there ’ s much leeway for him to recover electorally-speaking .
lee.drutman : Bottom line : It seems clear Trump ’ s had a bad few weeks , and public opinion reflects that .
If you think he ’ ll continue to have weeks as bad as the last few for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ll get more criticism from the right , then yes , public opinion is really changing .
But my guess is that the news cycle will shift , controversies will change , and Trump will recover .
perry : I think it ’ s too early to say .
Let ’ s consider : 1 ) COVID-19 ; 2 ) The use of tear gas ; 3 ) The high jobless rate because of COVID-19 ; and 4 ) The protests .
They are all electorally bad for Trump , but I doubt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same time in October , right before the election .
But Trump was an underdog before most of this happened and remains so .
lee.drutman : But to Geoffrey ’ s point , I think it ’ s possible that if there ’ s a deeper slide ( say , below 35 percent approval ) , there might be some genuine panic and potential circular firing squad action among Republicans .
Lots of scenarios are possible , but at this point I ’ d put my money on Republicans closing ranks around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approval ticking up , but Biden still winning by a narrow margin .
Basically , in five months we ’ ll be more or less where we ’ ve been for the last three months .
geoffrey.skelley : The more things change , the more they actually stay the same .

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): President Trump’s approval rating is back in the low 40s. He’s gotten poor marks for how he’s handled protests around George Floyd’s death and for how he’s managed the coronavirus pandemic. A number of national polls even show the race for president widening, with former Vice President Joe Biden comfortably in the lead. So are Americans changing their opinion of Trump? What evidence do we have that that’s the case?
We’ll talk about Trump’s relationship with independent voters and whether he might even be losing some support among Republicans, but first, let’s start with overall public opinion on Trump. Is it changing? Trump has had a 41 percent approval rating before — in fact, his approval rating has dropped even lower — so how do we contextualize what’s happening now?
lee.drutman (Lee Drutman, senior fellow at New America and FiveThirtyEight contributor): Certainly, this is not a great moment for Trump. Polls show that three-quarters of Americans believe that there is systemic racial injustice in the U.S., and Trump is clearly on the wrong side of public opinion at a moment in which these issues are super salient. That has to hurt his standing.
geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): It’s worth noting, too, that Trump’s recent approval slide is particularly noticeable as his numbers probably had been artificially high — the highest they’ve been since the start of his presidency — thanks to a “rally-around-the-flag effect” due to the coronavirus crisis. However, public opinion of his response has since soured. Combine that with the largely negative response to his handling of the protests, and you can better understand why his approval rating has been hit so hard.
perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): At the same time, it does look like Biden is having a surge — with his average lead in the polls now around 8 points, instead of 5 to 6 points. I do think that one CNN poll is getting too much attention and is probably shaping perceptions too much. I don’t think Biden is going to win by 14 points, and I’m not really sure anyone else thinks that either. It is true, though, that Biden has been leading in the polls most of the year, and Trump has been pretty unpopular for a long time.
geoffrey.skelley: I agree that it’s unlikely Biden is going to win by 15 points, given just how polarized our politics are. The last time a president won by a double-digit margin was all the way back in 1984, too, so it’s been a long time since that happened.
lee.drutman: It’s important to understand a lot of Biden’s surge as a “NOT TRUMP” vote, though.
geoffrey.skelley: Referendum elections going to referendum.
sarah: Tell us more, Lee.
lee.drutman: In that latest CNN poll that everybody’s buzzing about, 60 percent of Biden supporters say their vote is more of a vote against Trump than a vote for Biden.
This is negative partisanship, plain and simple. Trump has been wildly unpopular for a while, and while Biden has never generated a ton of enthusiasm, the worse Trump does, the more Biden rises.
sarah: Some of this might boil down to an obsession — is obsession the right word? — with treating 41 percent or 40 percent as a magical dividing line for Trump. That is, anything below that mark means he’s severely underwater; whereas, if he’s in the upper range of his approval rating bound, so between 42 to 45 percent, he’s fine.
But that simplification arguably misses two things: One, 42 to 45 percent isn’t exactly great as you all have said. And two, the fact that he’s experiencing a downturn now has to hobble his reelection chances, right?
What do we know about incumbent presidents’ reelection chances when they’ve had such low approval ratings?
geoffrey.skelley: Gallup’s final polls for Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992 put their approval ratings below 40 percent. They both lost. Generally, presidents who win reelection are at or above 50 percent in those polls.
lee.drutman: Two things are different about American politics in this moment, though. One, because of Trump’s coalition (more rural, more rust-belt working class, and therefore over-represented in the Electoral College), he can still plausibly win with just 46 percent of the popular vote. Second, because of the power of partisanship, Trump doesn’t have to be popular. He just has to be less unpopular than his opponent in a handful of key swing states. And his campaign is definitely going to do everything between now and November to make Biden seem like a dangerous extremist radical who wants to unleash chaos and rioting and socialism on America.
sarah: Right, and Biden’s favorables as they currently sit aren’t that stellar despite his polling lead, right?
lee.drutman: Yeah, Biden’s underwater.
geoffrey.skelley: But only a little bit. Right before the 2016 election, Clinton had a -13 net favorability rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating). Right now, Biden is at about -1, so Trump’s campaign still has a long way to go in lowering that.. That said, Trump has a better net favorability rating than he did back in 2016, too — he’s at -13 now compared to -21 in 2016, thanks to some Republicans coming into Trump’s fold.
The 2016 election sometimes felt like a race to the bottom because you had the two most unpopular nominees in modern times running. And while the 2020 contest might feel like this sometimes, too, the candidates — at least right now — aren’t as unpopular.
perry: So I think something that’s actually more important than the recent polling shift is people like former Secretary of Defense James Mattis, former President George W. Bush and Sen. Lisa Murkowksi, in addition to other conservatives, making Trump-skeptical moves in the past week or so.
If we end up with a kind of permission structure on the right that signals basically, “Trump is too extreme and not worth saving, vote for Biden or stay home and you are still a good Republican,” that could be big.
I know — conservative elites broke with Trump in 2016 and Republican voters did not. But Trump barely won — and more conservative elites doing this in 2020 could signal, in particular, that a certain type of Republican (college-educated, more cosmopolitan) cannot vote Republican this year.
sarah: Perry raises an interesting point, and one I don’t know the answer to. On the one hand, rebukes from figures like Mattis and Bush seem big, but at the same time I’m not sure how much they erode Trump’s core support.
But again, as Perry says, that’s not who this message is aimed at, and as we’ve long argued as a site, Trump’s base isn’t enough.
lee.drutman: Perry’s certainly right about the permission structure. And I think there may also be some Republican voters who think that Trump losing represents a chance to clean house in the Republican Party, and that Biden is a moderate they can live with.
I’m not sure how widespread this sentiment is outside of political elites, but it could be enough to sink Trump in an electorate in which even just 1 or 2 percent of voters make the difference.
sarah: But how big of a bloc of voters do we think Bush and Mattis are speaking to? My thought is this is either a very small group of voters or they’ve already broken from Trump, so I’m not sure how much of a factor it plays in 2020. I’m thinking, too, of all the Republicans who spoke out in 2016 and the small effect they seemed to have.
perry: The way Biden has a big electoral win (and one that I think is possible) is a bloc of Republicans in the suburbs of Atlanta, Dallas and Houston decide not to vote, at least for Trump. (Maybe they just vote for the GOP Senate candidate). Bush lives in the Dallas suburbs!
That seems entirely possible to me.
Not to mention, in 2018 these types of voters flipped to Democrats.
lee.drutman: I agree that it’s not a big bloc. But there is a bloc of maybe 10 percent of Trump voters who are unsure of who to vote for, and they tend to be more liberal on most issues than the Republican Party as a whole.
But they are also younger, so I’m not sure how much they will care about what a bunch of senior Republicans have to say. Then again, they might care more about issues of racial injustice and the future of the Republican Party beyond Trump.
perry: I am not going to be able to beat back the “But 2016” rejoinder. I get it. I just think this race might be different.
sarah: That’s fair, Perry. It’s a good point. And I’m definitely guilty of overcompensating for 2016 from time to time.
perry: But I think Lee was laying out the more likely scenario earlier — Republicans run a lot of ads attacking Biden, reminding GOP voters that Biden has taken a lot of liberal stances.
And say if Biden picks Sens. Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren — two of the most liberal members of the Senate — as his running mate, maybe you’re in a situation where Trump is getting 44 percent of the vote and is viable in swing states.
geoffrey.skelley: The problem for the Trump campaign is they already have very good numbers among Republicans. So they really need Biden’s numbers to crater among independents much like Clinton’s did. Biden’s favorables among independents are in the 30s, so they aren’t good, but Clinton’s numbers were toxic: There were polls going into Election Day where her favorability among those voters was in the 20s and her unfavorables were between 60 and 70 percent.
lee.drutman: Also, right now the public is on the side of the protesters. But there’s a (very likely) scenario in which criminal justice reform dies in the Senate, cities walk back the progressive promises they’re making now, and there’s tremendous frustration that nothing will change. Then, protests get more aggressive, and progressive demands to “defund the police” become more polarizing.
An additional complication is that if many ballots wind up being cast remotely because of the coronavirus pandemic, there could be lots of first-time, vote-at-home voters. That means enthusiasm and mobilization could be a big issue. And I’m not sure how this plays. It could go either way, helping or hurting both Democrats and Republicans.
perry: Yeah, I could picture a situation where Biden doesn’t motivate young black people — or young people more broadly — if he sticks to his more centrist impulses, i.e. “most police officers are good.” Another potential problem for Biden could arise if Harris or Warren is on the ticket and his campaign overreaches with its promises for racial justice (those two want to be leaders on racial justice), landing him in Clinton’s “deplorable” zone. That all could hurt Biden with white swing voters.
lee.drutman: Perry is right. And Republican operatives almost certainly have a plan to broadcast those moves to the groups most likely to to not vote.
geoffrey.skelley: The Trump campaign even tried to dampen turnout among black voters in 2016, for example.
sarah: These are good points, but I thought Michael Tessler over at the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage had some good points on why the protests won’t help Trump politically, which I think is especially true, if as you say, Lee, some of those Republicans who are most unsure are more likely to be more liberal on issues of racial injustice.
lee.drutman: Right — I think there is a sense among protesters and supporters that maybe this time really is different and their voices are being heard. But turning protest into political action isn’t so straightforward. And if anything comes out of Washington (unlikely) it will be very minor.
sarah: That’s fair. It’s also, as FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder wrote for the site, really hard to know how these protests might play out electorally, as protests can have unintended consequences.
But OK, we’ve talked a little about who is driving this downturn in Trump’s numbers, but one question I have is how do independents fit into this? Is Trump seriously underwater there?
lee.drutman: As always when we’re talking about independents, we have to be careful. Most independents are not swing voters, and swing voters aren’t always independents.
geoffrey.skelley: Lee’s right that “independent” is a complicated label for many of the voters who self-identify that way. For that reason, I wish more pollsters included independents who lean toward a party in their party ID breakdowns. But what we do know is that right now Biden has an edge on Trump among independents in most recent national polls — though the leads vary quite a bit. That CNN poll was very favorable to Biden, for instance, and it had him up 11 points, but a Monmouth University poll also had him up 16 among independents. Some other polls give Biden a smaller edge with this group — he was up 4 points in a survey from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College, for example — but they agree that Biden’s ahead.
lee.drutman: Interestingly, there is some evidence, too, that there are Trump-Biden voters, who tend to be economically liberal, socially conservative — like Obama-Trump voters. My thought is some of these voters may just be perpetually dissatisfied with Washington and in a persistent throw-the-bums-out mood.
perry: And Lee, to his credit, has been writing about economically liberal, socially conservative voters since Trump’s rise.
But it feels like these voters may not be exactly extra-motivated by civil rights issues, right?
sarah: That’s a good question, Perry. That was definitely part of the narrative around these voters in 2016 — they broke for Trump because of their views on immigration and on racial discrimination. It’s unclear to me if that will motivate them again in the same way in 2020, or if there are other considerations. At this point, though, how sticky do we think this downturn in Trump’s approval rating really is? As we said at the outset of this chat, his approval rating has been at 41 percent before. So do we really think a shift in public opinion is happening now? Or might the economy — think more news like last week’s job report — pose a silver lining for Trump, and his approval rating will maybe bounce back?
lee.drutman: Trump’s had a really bad past few weeks, and the polls reflect that. Though given just how bad a period he’s had, it’s sort of remarkable his approval rating hasn’t fallen further, which is a testament, I suppose, to the resilience of his 40 percent floor.
That said, I don’t think the economy will have that much of an effect, given how little he was rewarded for a good economy, and how little he’s been punished for a bad economy. There’s about 5 percent of the electorate that seems to go back and forth on Trump, mostly based on how Trump behaves, and how bad the coverage of him is. Based on regression to the mean, I’d guess Trump’s approval rating will go back up, unless there is some kind of cascade of elite Republicans turning on him.
geoffrey.skelley: The good news for Trump is that voters aren’t completely short-term when it comes to their attitudes toward economic conditions. After all, Trump continues to poll decently when it comes to his handling of the economy — I suspect he’s still getting some credit for the strong past performance. So economic improvement could help him. Still, Lee’s right that the roaring economy didn’t give Trump a great overall approval rating before, so it’s unlikely to alone save him.
perry: I think Trump will end up back in the 42-to-43 percent approval range, which is bad, but not horrible. The tear gas incident alone drew so much negative coverage that I doubt he will do that particular thing again.
geoffrey.skelley: I don’t know, Perry. On Tuesday, he tweeted out conspiracy theories about a man who was injured by police in Buffalo. I wouldn’t bet against him not doing something!
lee.drutman: Yeah, I agree with Geoffrey. I think Trump’s instinct is to create controversy, chaos and division, because he thinks that makes him look strong and leader-ish, and that’s the lesson that he learned from 2016.
He might not break up a crowd to do another photo op, but he’ll continue to amplify unlikely and provocative fringe views just to set the pinballs in motion.
sarah: So to conclude, do we think there’s evidence that public opinion of Trump is really changing this time Or is that too hard to answer at this point?
geoffrey.skelley: I think if Trump’s approval slides a little below 40 percent, we could point to this being an especially bad moment for him. He’s only really been there once in our tracker since the midterm, and that was during the government shutdown, when his approval fell to 39 percent. So I think the jury is still out on this being a moment where opinions truly shift.
One other way to think about this is how much opinions against Trump have hardened.
For instance, we know that a lot of voters have said in the past they didn’t want to vote for Trump, and most people who disapprove of him do so strongly. But do some of those who said they “somewhat disapprove” now say they “strongly disapprove” of Trump? Or do they move back more to the middle, to even “somewhat approve?” That will help determine whether there’s much leeway for him to recover electorally-speaking.
lee.drutman: Bottom line: It seems clear Trump’s had a bad few weeks, and public opinion reflects that. If you think he’ll continue to have weeks as bad as the last few for the foreseeable future, or he’ll get more criticism from the right, then yes, public opinion is really changing. But my guess is that the news cycle will shift, controversies will change, and Trump will recover.
perry: I think it’s too early to say. Let’s consider: 1) COVID-19; 2) The use of tear gas; 3) The high jobless rate because of COVID-19; and 4) The protests. They are all electorally bad for Trump, but I doubt bad things like that all happen at the same time in October, right before the election. But Trump was an underdog before most of this happened and remains so.
lee.drutman: But to Geoffrey’s point, I think it’s possible that if there’s a deeper slide (say, below 35 percent approval), there might be some genuine panic and potential circular firing squad action among Republicans.
Lots of scenarios are possible, but at this point I’d put my money on Republicans closing ranks around Trump as the election nears and his approval ticking up, but Biden still winning by a narrow margin. Basically, in five months we’ll be more or less where we’ve been for the last three months.
geoffrey.skelley: The more things change, the more they actually stay the same.
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