fivethirtyeight--2020-06-05--May’s Jobs Report Brought Good News — But Not For Everyone

We already knew the economic crisis of the coronavirus pandemic was moving much faster than our economic data could keep up with .
But the most recent jobs report , which was released today , underscores just how little we know about the current state of the job market at any given moment .
In a surprise development , the government ’ s data shows that 2.5 million more people were employed in May than in April .
The unemployment rate , which had climbed to a stunning 14.7 percent in April , dropped to 13.3 percent in May .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to put it mildly : Forecasters had predicted that the report would show nearly 1 in 5 Americans out of work and millions more jobs lost .
Although experts told us that we ’ ll have to wait for the next report to get a sense of where the economy is truly heading , it ’ s clear that employment in some of the hardest-hit sectors started to recover last month .
Almost 50 percent of the job gains for the entire economy were in the leisure and hospitality sector , which had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suggests that government efforts may have protected jobs — particularly through the Paycheck Protection Program ( PPP ) , which allowed small businesses to receive forgivable loans if they spent the money on direct expenses like payroll — and that the first few weeks of states ’ reopening allowed some workers to return to their jobs .
But this report isn ’ t all good news : Not only is a 13 percent unemployment rate extremely high by historical standards — for context , it hit a peak of 10 percent during the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recovery doesn ’ t seem to have arrived for all workers .
The unemployment rate fell for both men and women , which is noteworthy because women experienced more job losses during the first few months of the pandemic .
But the unemployment rate for black workers ( and particularly black women ) actually rose from April to May — further exacerbating the racial disparities in which workers are out of a job .
The trends aren ’ t as catastrophic as many expected , but the state of the labor market is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ monthly jobs report is one of the most accurate and comprehensive sources of economic data we have , it ’ s always a single snapshot of a moment in time — one that , in this case more than most , is rapidly disappearing in the rearview mirror .
The May report is based on surveys of businesses and households from the middle of the month , before many states started to reopen and protests against police violence began to roil the country .
So things could change even more in the next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difficult to predict in which direction .
“ This almost feels like a quantum report — in the sense that it ’ s really hard to interpret this report without knowing the one after it , ” said Nick Bunker , the director of economic research for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab , a research institute connected to the job-search site Indeed .
“ It looks like the partial rebound that people were expecting a few months from now got here early .
But we have no idea how this will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recovery is going to be like ?
Do we go from a jump to a crawl ?
” This report saw huge gains in some of the sectors of the economy where job losses were most concentrated in March and April — areas that were unable to continue to operate because of the pandemic , such as hospitality , education and health services , and retail trade .
The leisure and hospitality supersector gained a total of 1.2 million jobs in May , the vast majority of which fall under food services and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assistance saw a gain of 391,000 jobs , with dental offices making up 245,000 of those .
And in retail , 368,000 jobs were added , with the biggest gains coming in clothing and accessories stores and general merchandise stores .
A notable takeaway from last month ’ s jobs report was the impact of the coronavirus recession across many different industries .
Although leisure/hospitality continued to hemorrhage jobs in April , the effects of the pandemic were already rippling out to other sectors of the economy , such as local/state government , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ May , the trend of broad losses across the entire economy appears to have reversed itself .
The diffusion index is an indicator that shows the share of private industries that added jobs , with an average score of 50 .
Last month ’ s index was revised to below 4 percent , meaning that almost no industries added workers .
But this month , the index is 64 percent — meaning that many more sectors of the economy added jobs than lost them .
For instance , construction saw the second-biggest jobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the chart above , adding 464,000 workers — despite not being among the very hardest hit in March and April .
That ’ s a sign that May ’ s gains are not coming only from workers returning to sectors that had seen the largest losses when the coronavirus first shook the economy .
It ’ s important to bear in mind that the headline jobs numbers are revised for accuracy in the following two jobs reports , so the total number of jobs gained or lost could change substantially in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which was initially reported as 701,000 jobs lost , was revised in the May 8 report to 881,000 lost jobs and to 1.4 million lost jobs in today ’ s report .
But the revision for April ’ s payroll jobs number was smaller — from 20.5 million jobs lost to 20.7 million jobs lost .
So it ’ s harder to predict what the revisions for May will look like , although Matt McDonald , a partner at the consulting firm Hamilton Place Strategies who writes a monthly analysis of the jobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that he would be surprised , based on this month ’ s revisions , if it turned out that jobs were lost in May rather than gained .
One likely explanation for this sudden turnaround is that a significant number of small businesses started to get money from the federal government to bring their employees back to work .
The program got off to a rocky start , with banks quickly running out of money and funds flowing first to parts of the country that were less affected by the pandemic .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 24-30 , 80.6 percent of accommodation and food service small businesses had received PPP assistance , compared with an average across all sectors of 71 percent .
It ’ s also very possible that the handful of states that reopened in late April and early May made a difference .
We won ’ t be able to dig into state-level information until a more granular set of data is released later this month , but McDonald told us that he expects big regional variations to show up .
The jobs gains might still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Americans who have filed for unemployment over the past few months .
Millions of Americans were still applying for payments last week , which was part of the reason that many forecasters expected the jobs report to be so bleak .
But there were some signals even in these reports that the labor market might be improving .
For one thing , continued claims — that is , the total number of people whose claims were paid out in a given week — finally started to decline during the week of May @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even though unemployment claims are reported more quickly than the figures in the monthly jobs report , those initial claims may not be a more accurate indicator of where the labor market stands , in part because there is a lot of variation in who is eligible for unemployment in different states and in how states report their data .
The slower decline in unemployment claims could also be due to the enormous delays in processing times that have been reported across the country , since workers can still receive unemployment payments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job even if they returned to work in the meantime .
Freelancers and independent contractors may also make up a significant chunk of the later claims — they were able to apply for unemployment insurance through a special , pandemic-specific program that rolled out in many states in late April and May .
There was evidence in this month ’ s jobs report that the small decline in the unemployment rate and uptick in payroll jobs were due to temporarily furloughed workers returning to their positions .
According to the Bureau of Labor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ temporary layoff dropped by 2.7 million in May , to 15.3 million .
The bureau also reported that the number of unemployed people who were jobless for fewer than five weeks dropped to 3.9 million in May , a decrease of 10.4 million from April .
( The number of people jobless for five or more weeks , meanwhile , increased by 8.8 million in May . )
This may also speak to the backlog in processing unemployment insurance claims on a week-to-week basis , with many workers showing up in the claims @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they had already returned to work .
All of that might seem like good news — a sign that the economy will , in fact , be able to bounce back quickly as businesses start to reopen .
That ’ s certainly how some policymakers interpreted it .
Stephen Moore , a White House economic adviser , told reporters that the report removes the urgent need for another round of fiscal stimulus , which Democrats have been advocating for weeks .
But there ’ s plenty of bad news tucked into this report @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that just because the labor market data was less catastrophic than we had thought , it didn ’ t mean we should pump the brakes on government assistance to businesses or jobless workers .
For one thing , it ’ s important not to lose sight of the fact that , again , a 13 percent unemployment rate is still stunningly high — and the researchers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics still think it may not be including some workers who said they were still employed but were absent from work during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If those workers were included , the researchers wrote in the report , the unemployment rate would be 3 percentage points higher .
One of the biggest themes of the April jobs report was that the vast majority of the lost jobs ( 90 percent , excluding temporary jobs that were expected to be completed ) were temporary layoffs .
In May , that was still true — to an extent .
Eighty-seven percent of job losses were still classified as temporary , though the number of permanent job losses increased by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economists told us they were especially focused on the nature of the layoffs in the May report because it ’ s an important indicator of how painful the recovery could be .
“ One of the things that ’ s been really unusual about this recession is how many temporary job losses we ’ ve had , ” Bunker said .
“ The more permanent job losses we see , the more this will look like a normal recession , and that ’ s not good news because in the last two recessions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and slow.
” He said he was not encouraged by the fact that the number of permanent job losses had increased .
And while the coronavirus recession may have left tens of millions of workers jobless across the entire economy , it ’ s low-wage workers , workers of color and female workers who are continuing to bear the brunt of the job losses .
In April and May , the groups most disproportionately affected by job losses ( relative to their share of the labor force ) have been black and — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up 17.8 percent of the civilian labor force , Hispanic and Latino workers suffered 22.8 percent of the job losses in April and May .
They have the highest unemployment rate of any ethnic group — 17.6 percent — and their rate has risen by a staggering 13.2 percentage points since February .
The unemployment rate among black Americans ( 16.8 percent ) is significantly higher than the unemployment rate among white Americans ( 12.4 percent ) , too .
Not only did unemployment among black workers start from a much higher point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3.1 percent for white workers ) , but it has also increased by more percentage points since before the coronavirus crisis ( 11 percentage points , versus 9.3 points for white workers ) .
And while the unemployment rate for other racial groups fell in May , the black unemployment rate actually rose by 0.1 percentage points this past month , including by 0.6 points for black women .
Martha Gimbel , an economist with the philanthropic initiative Schmidt Futures , also pointed out that many black workers are still employed because they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — which means they may be working under hazardous conditions where they ’ re more likely to be exposed to the virus , and they ’ re likely making less money than they would on unemployment .
Women also continue to be hit by job losses harder than men : 51.4 percent of total job losses since April have been women , even though they make up 47 percent of the civilian labor force .
A major factor is that women are more concentrated in the sectors that were disproportionately hit by job @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up 53 percent of workers in accommodation and food services , 70 percent of workers in educational services and 78 percent of workers in health care and social assistance .
( They were also 82 percent of the workforce in dental offices . )
Although all these areas of the economy saw a rebound in May , all have lost significant numbers of net jobs since the coronavirus crisis began .
Americans can be thankful that this month ’ s jobs report wasn ’ t as apocalyptic as many feared .
But it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in unemployment , even if it did defy expectations .
“ We shouldn ’ t let one month and one data point totally change how we ’ re thinking about the economy , ” Gimbel said .
“ The level of unemployment is still really bad , even if the trends are starting to look more positive.
” And while there are signs of a recovery in the data , there is also plenty of evidence that the rebound did not reach all corners of the economy , particularly the most vulnerable ones @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anyone can give the job market is an incomplete — with even more emphasis placed on the next jobs report , which will speak volumes about how to interpret this one .

We already knew the economic crisis of the coronavirus pandemic was moving much faster than our economic data could keep up with. But the most recent jobs report, which was released today, underscores just how little we know about the current state of the job market at any given moment. In a surprise development, the government’s data shows that 2.5 million more people were employed in May than in April. The unemployment rate, which had climbed to a stunning 14.7 percent in April, dropped to 13.3 percent in May. That’s a huge shock, to put it mildly: Forecasters had predicted that the report would show nearly 1 in 5 Americans out of work and millions more jobs lost.
Although experts told us that we’ll have to wait for the next report to get a sense of where the economy is truly heading, it’s clear that employment in some of the hardest-hit sectors started to recover last month. Almost 50 percent of the job gains for the entire economy were in the leisure and hospitality sector, which had cratered in March and April. This suggests that government efforts may have protected jobs — particularly through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), which allowed small businesses to receive forgivable loans if they spent the money on direct expenses like payroll — and that the first few weeks of states’ reopening allowed some workers to return to their jobs.
But this report isn’t all good news: Not only is a 13 percent unemployment rate extremely high by historical standards — for context, it hit a peak of 10 percent during the Great Recession — but also, the recovery doesn’t seem to have arrived for all workers. The unemployment rate fell for both men and women, which is noteworthy because women experienced more job losses during the first few months of the pandemic. But the unemployment rate for black workers (and particularly black women) actually rose from April to May — further exacerbating the racial disparities in which workers are out of a job. The trends aren’t as catastrophic as many expected, but the state of the labor market is still very grim.
Even though the monthly jobs report is one of the most accurate and comprehensive sources of economic data we have, it’s always a single snapshot of a moment in time — one that, in this case more than most, is rapidly disappearing in the rearview mirror. The May report is based on surveys of businesses and households from the middle of the month, before many states started to reopen and protests against police violence began to roil the country. So things could change even more in the next report — and it’s more difficult to predict in which direction.
“This almost feels like a quantum report — in the sense that it’s really hard to interpret this report without knowing the one after it,” said Nick Bunker, the director of economic research for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, a research institute connected to the job-search site Indeed. “It looks like the partial rebound that people were expecting a few months from now got here early. But we have no idea how this will continue. Is this what the whole recovery is going to be like? Do we go from a jump to a crawl?”
This report saw huge gains in some of the sectors of the economy where job losses were most concentrated in March and April — areas that were unable to continue to operate because of the pandemic, such as hospitality, education and health services, and retail trade. The leisure and hospitality supersector gained a total of 1.2 million jobs in May, the vast majority of which fall under food services and drinking places. Health care and social assistance saw a gain of 391,000 jobs, with dental offices making up 245,000 of those. And in retail, 368,000 jobs were added, with the biggest gains coming in clothing and accessories stores and general merchandise stores.
A notable takeaway from last month’s jobs report was the impact of the coronavirus recession across many different industries. Although leisure/hospitality continued to hemorrhage jobs in April, the effects of the pandemic were already rippling out to other sectors of the economy, such as local/state government, construction and health care. But in May, the trend of broad losses across the entire economy appears to have reversed itself. The diffusion index is an indicator that shows the share of private industries that added jobs, with an average score of 50. Last month’s index was revised to below 4 percent, meaning that almost no industries added workers. But this month, the index is 64 percent — meaning that many more sectors of the economy added jobs than lost them.
For instance, construction saw the second-biggest jobs increase for May among the major industries in the chart above, adding 464,000 workers — despite not being among the very hardest hit in March and April. That’s a sign that May’s gains are not coming only from workers returning to sectors that had seen the largest losses when the coronavirus first shook the economy.
It’s important to bear in mind that the headline jobs numbers are revised for accuracy in the following two jobs reports, so the total number of jobs gained or lost could change substantially in the coming months. The March number, which was initially reported as 701,000 jobs lost, was revised in the May 8 report to 881,000 lost jobs and to 1.4 million lost jobs in today’s report. But the revision for April’s payroll jobs number was smaller — from 20.5 million jobs lost to 20.7 million jobs lost. So it’s harder to predict what the revisions for May will look like, although Matt McDonald, a partner at the consulting firm Hamilton Place Strategies who writes a monthly analysis of the jobs report, told us in an email that he would be surprised, based on this month’s revisions, if it turned out that jobs were lost in May rather than gained.
One likely explanation for this sudden turnaround is that a significant number of small businesses started to get money from the federal government to bring their employees back to work. The program got off to a rocky start, with banks quickly running out of money and funds flowing first to parts of the country that were less affected by the pandemic. But according to a census survey conducted May 24-30, 80.6 percent of accommodation and food service small businesses had received PPP assistance, compared with an average across all sectors of 71 percent.
It’s also very possible that the handful of states that reopened in late April and early May made a difference. We won’t be able to dig into state-level information until a more granular set of data is released later this month, but McDonald told us that he expects big regional variations to show up.
The jobs gains might still seem at odds with the breathtaking number of Americans who have filed for unemployment over the past few months. Millions of Americans were still applying for payments last week, which was part of the reason that many forecasters expected the jobs report to be so bleak. But there were some signals even in these reports that the labor market might be improving. For one thing, continued claims — that is, the total number of people whose claims were paid out in a given week — finally started to decline during the week of May 16. And Bunker pointed out that, even though unemployment claims are reported more quickly than the figures in the monthly jobs report, those initial claims may not be a more accurate indicator of where the labor market stands, in part because there is a lot of variation in who is eligible for unemployment in different states and in how states report their data.
The slower decline in unemployment claims could also be due to the enormous delays in processing times that have been reported across the country, since workers can still receive unemployment payments for the time they spent off the job even if they returned to work in the meantime. Freelancers and independent contractors may also make up a significant chunk of the later claims — they were able to apply for unemployment insurance through a special, pandemic-specific program that rolled out in many states in late April and May.
There was evidence in this month’s jobs report that the small decline in the unemployment rate and uptick in payroll jobs were due to temporarily furloughed workers returning to their positions. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of workers on temporary layoff dropped by 2.7 million in May, to 15.3 million. The bureau also reported that the number of unemployed people who were jobless for fewer than five weeks dropped to 3.9 million in May, a decrease of 10.4 million from April. (The number of people jobless for five or more weeks, meanwhile, increased by 8.8 million in May.) This may also speak to the backlog in processing unemployment insurance claims on a week-to-week basis, with many workers showing up in the claims data even if, in reality, they had already returned to work.
All of that might seem like good news — a sign that the economy will, in fact, be able to bounce back quickly as businesses start to reopen. That’s certainly how some policymakers interpreted it. Stephen Moore, a White House economic adviser, told reporters that the report removes the urgent need for another round of fiscal stimulus, which Democrats have been advocating for weeks.
But there’s plenty of bad news tucked into this report too — and several economists told us that just because the labor market data was less catastrophic than we had thought, it didn’t mean we should pump the brakes on government assistance to businesses or jobless workers. For one thing, it’s important not to lose sight of the fact that, again, a 13 percent unemployment rate is still stunningly high — and the researchers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics still think it may not be including some workers who said they were still employed but were absent from work during the entire week referenced in the survey. If those workers were included, the researchers wrote in the report, the unemployment rate would be 3 percentage points higher.
One of the biggest themes of the April jobs report was that the vast majority of the lost jobs (90 percent, excluding temporary jobs that were expected to be completed) were temporary layoffs. In May, that was still true — to an extent. Eighty-seven percent of job losses were still classified as temporary, though the number of permanent job losses increased by 295,000 from April to May.
Several economists told us they were especially focused on the nature of the layoffs in the May report because it’s an important indicator of how painful the recovery could be. “One of the things that’s been really unusual about this recession is how many temporary job losses we’ve had,” Bunker said. “The more permanent job losses we see, the more this will look like a normal recession, and that’s not good news because in the last two recessions, the recovery has been very stubborn and slow.” He said he was not encouraged by the fact that the number of permanent job losses had increased.
And while the coronavirus recession may have left tens of millions of workers jobless across the entire economy, it’s low-wage workers, workers of color and female workers who are continuing to bear the brunt of the job losses.
In April and May, the groups most disproportionately affected by job losses (relative to their share of the labor force) have been black and — especially — Hispanic workers. Despite making up 17.8 percent of the civilian labor force, Hispanic and Latino workers suffered 22.8 percent of the job losses in April and May. They have the highest unemployment rate of any ethnic group — 17.6 percent — and their rate has risen by a staggering 13.2 percentage points since February.
The unemployment rate among black Americans (16.8 percent) is significantly higher than the unemployment rate among white Americans (12.4 percent), too. Not only did unemployment among black workers start from a much higher point (5.8 percent in February, versus 3.1 percent for white workers), but it has also increased by more percentage points since before the coronavirus crisis (11 percentage points, versus 9.3 points for white workers). And while the unemployment rate for other racial groups fell in May, the black unemployment rate actually rose by 0.1 percentage points this past month, including by 0.6 points for black women.
Martha Gimbel, an economist with the philanthropic initiative Schmidt Futures, also pointed out that many black workers are still employed because they’re essential workers in low-wage jobs — which means they may be working under hazardous conditions where they’re more likely to be exposed to the virus, and they’re likely making less money than they would on unemployment.
Women also continue to be hit by job losses harder than men: 51.4 percent of total job losses since April have been women, even though they make up 47 percent of the civilian labor force.
A major factor is that women are more concentrated in the sectors that were disproportionately hit by job losses. In 2019, women made up 53 percent of workers in accommodation and food services, 70 percent of workers in educational services and 78 percent of workers in health care and social assistance. (They were also 82 percent of the workforce in dental offices.) Although all these areas of the economy saw a rebound in May, all have lost significant numbers of net jobs since the coronavirus crisis began.
Americans can be thankful that this month’s jobs report wasn’t as apocalyptic as many feared. But it’s premature to celebrate the dip in unemployment, even if it did defy expectations. “We shouldn’t let one month and one data point totally change how we’re thinking about the economy,” Gimbel said. “The level of unemployment is still really bad, even if the trends are starting to look more positive.”
And while there are signs of a recovery in the data, there is also plenty of evidence that the rebound did not reach all corners of the economy, particularly the most vulnerable ones. For now, the best grade anyone can give the job market is an incomplete — with even more emphasis placed on the next jobs report, which will speak volumes about how to interpret this one.
Subscribe to our coronavirus podcast, PODCAST-19


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-05--How Much Can History Teach Us About These Protests?

In this week ’ s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , historian Yohuru Williams , a dean at the University of St. @ @ @ @ @ Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today ’ s anti-police-violence protests compare with protest @ @ @ @ @

How Much Can History Teach Us About These Protests?
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, historian Yohuru Williams, a dean at the University of St. Thomas, joins Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today’s anti-police-violence protests compare with protest movements of the past.


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-08--What The June 2 Primaries Can Tell Us About November

Under normal circumstances , we would have published this article days ago .
But the increased use of vote-by-mail during the coronavirus pandemic means it has taken a few days to count the votes from last Tuesday ’ s primary elections ; some jurisdictions are still counting .
Unfortunately for impatient election junkies , this may be something we have to get used to : The results of the November election may also not be known for several days if Americans continue to vote by mail in large numbers .
But nearly a week later , we do at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ June 2 .
The biggest news came in Iowa ’ s 4th Congressional District , where Republican Rep. Steve King became the second incumbent congressman so far this year to lose in a primary .
State Sen. Randy Feenstra defeated King by a healthy 10-point margin , 46 percent to 36 percent , and has likely punched his ticket to Washington in this deep-red district — President Trump carried it by 27 points in 2016 .
King is infamous for his racist and controversial comments , which came to a head last year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as “ white supremacist ” was offensive .
The incident prompted Republican leadership to remove King from all House committees , which opened the door for Feenstra ’ s primary challenge attacking King as ineffective .
Elsewhere , it was a good day for female candidates .
In 2019 , the number of Republican women in the House dropped to just 13 , but on Tuesday the party took a meaningful step toward diversifying its ranks , nominating women in several swing districts , including the Indiana 5th , Iowa 1st , Iowa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 7th .
And New Mexico , which has long been a pioneer at electing nonwhite women to office , looks as if it will elect a U.S. House delegation made up entirely of women of color this fall , as Hispanic or Native American women won the Democratic and Republican primaries for all three of its congressional seats .
And although the presidential primary might seem irrelevant at this point , last Tuesday ’ s contests helped former Vice President Joe Biden finally clinch the nomination .
He won 422 of 452 delegates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contests , according to ABC News ’ figures , which positioned him to achieve a delegate majority on Saturday thanks to results from Guam ’ s caucus .
Given the scale of the vote — nine states plus Washington , D.C. , held primaries , prompting the nickname “ Super Junesday ” — some saw the June 2 election as a dry run for November in terms of voting amid a pandemic .
But if it was , it had mixed results .
On the bright side , Idaho , Iowa and Montana @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ever cast in a primary election .
That might sound impressive , but when we look at turnout as a share of the voting eligible population , turnout surpassed the 2016 primary in six of the 10 jurisdictions that held their primaries on Tuesday .
Of course , we don ’ t know that the changes in turnout are predominantly driven by the pandemic .
The competitiveness of the races on the ballot plays a big role as well , and the 2020 presidential primary is obviously no longer being contested ( which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of these states except Idaho and Iowa , which were holding only down-ballot primaries ) .
But several states , including Idaho , New Mexico and South Dakota , featured less or equally competitive races in 2020 than in 2016 and still saw higher turnout , which was definitely a positive sign .
And the increased availability of mail voting may have had something to do with that .
All nine jurisdictions for which we have data saw a huge spike in the share of voters opting to cast absentee ballots .
Absentee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in every locale , and three states saw virtually every ballot cast absentee : Maryland and Montana , which mailed ballots to all registered voters , and Idaho , which did not open any polling places .
Beyond that , however , there is no clear pattern regarding best practices for vote-by-mail elections .
Iowa , New Mexico , Rhode Island , South Dakota and Washington , D.C. , for instance , sent every voter an absentee ballot application ( so not an automatic ballot ) , but their absentee-voting rates ranged anywhere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ By contrast , Pennsylvania , which merely sent voters a postcard with instructions on how to request a ballot , had 62 percent of its ballots cast absentee or by mail .
The heavy volume of mail voting also led to a resurgence of some of the issues that plagued the Wisconsin primary in early April .
Many voters reported not receiving ballots they requested .
In Maryland , issues with a vendor delayed the delivery of more than 1 million ballots .
In Washington , D.C. , enough people complained about not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ officials eventually allowed some of them to cast their ballots via email , against the recommendations of election-security experts .
And in Pennsylvania , voters waited an average of seven days to receive their ballots — two weeks in some counties .
But the problems don ’ t stop there .
In Delaware County , officials simply ran out of time to fulfill 400 absentee-ballot requests and sent out another 6,000 ballots on June 1 without return postage because they did not think any voters would be able to mail those ballots back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fears eventually prompted Gov .
Tom Wolf to give voters in Delaware and five other counties an extra week to return their ballots . )
In addition , many cities experienced long lines at polling places after the number of in-person voting sites was slashed ( a problem exacerbated by those who never received mail ballots being forced to vote in person ) .
Long waits were reported in Baltimore ; Bozeman , Montana ; Des Moines , Iowa ; Indianapolis ; and Las Cruces , New Mexico .
But the worst horror @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s capital , where the requirement that poll workers clean equipment between voters and limit the number of people who could enter each polling place caused long delays .
Some people reported waiting up to five hours to vote and not leaving until about 1 a.m. — which they did amid a curfew imposed as a result of the week ’ s protests .
And although voters were supposed to be exempt from the curfew , there were social-media reports of police telling voters standing in line to vote to go home .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of voter intimidation , as one polling place in a predominantly black ward was located in a building that houses the police station , and armed police officers in riot gear stood watch over another .
Perhaps not coincidentally , two of the places where these problems seemed most acute ( Maryland and Pennsylvania ) were also among the ones where turnout dropped .
And amid the possibility that large numbers of voters were disenfranchised , there are now calls for election officials in Maryland and Washington to resign over the snafus .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ primaries continue to suggest the country is not fully prepared to hold the general election in a time of crisis .

Under normal circumstances, we would have published this article days ago. But the increased use of vote-by-mail during the coronavirus pandemic means it has taken a few days to count the votes from last Tuesday’s primary elections; some jurisdictions are still counting. Unfortunately for impatient election junkies, this may be something we have to get used to: The results of the November election may also not be known for several days if Americans continue to vote by mail in large numbers.
But nearly a week later, we do at least know who won the major races on June 2. The biggest news came in Iowa’s 4th Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Steve King became the second incumbent congressman so far this year to lose in a primary. State Sen. Randy Feenstra defeated King by a healthy 10-point margin, 46 percent to 36 percent, and has likely punched his ticket to Washington in this deep-red district — President Trump carried it by 27 points in 2016. King is infamous for his racist and controversial comments, which came to a head last year when King wondered aloud why language such as “white supremacist” was offensive. The incident prompted Republican leadership to remove King from all House committees, which opened the door for Feenstra’s primary challenge attacking King as ineffective.
Elsewhere, it was a good day for female candidates. In 2019, the number of Republican women in the House dropped to just 13, but on Tuesday the party took a meaningful step toward diversifying its ranks, nominating women in several swing districts, including the Indiana 5th, Iowa 1st, Iowa 2nd, New Mexico 2nd and Pennsylvania 7th. And New Mexico, which has long been a pioneer at electing nonwhite women to office, looks as if it will elect a U.S. House delegation made up entirely of women of color this fall, as Hispanic or Native American women won the Democratic and Republican primaries for all three of its congressional seats.
[Related: There Is No Evidence That Voting By Mail Gives One Party An Advantage]
And although the presidential primary might seem irrelevant at this point, last Tuesday’s contests helped former Vice President Joe Biden finally clinch the nomination. He won 422 of 452 delegates allocated so far from the June 2 contests, according to ABC News’ figures, which positioned him to achieve a delegate majority on Saturday thanks to results from Guam’s caucus.
Given the scale of the vote — nine states plus Washington, D.C., held primaries, prompting the nickname “Super Junesday” — some saw the June 2 election as a dry run for November in terms of voting amid a pandemic. But if it was, it had mixed results. On the bright side, Idaho, Iowa and Montana all broke records for the most votes ever cast in a primary election. That might sound impressive, but when we look at turnout as a share of the voting eligible population, turnout surpassed the 2016 primary in six of the 10 jurisdictions that held their primaries on Tuesday.
Primary turnout up in some states, down in others 2016 vs. 2020 primary turnout in the 10 jurisdictions that held elections on June 2, as a share of the voting eligible population Jurisdiction 2016 Turnout 2020 Turnout Change Iowa 9% 23% +14 Idaho 15 26 +11 Montana 37 46 +9 New Mexico 23 28 +5 South Dakota 20 24 +4 Washington, D.C. 20 20 +1 Rhode Island 24 15 -8 Maryland 34 25 -8 Pennsylvania 34 22 -11 Indiana 36 20 -16 2020 turnout is based on preliminary data as of June 7. Sources: State election officials, Associated Press, United States Elections project
Of course, we don’t know that the changes in turnout are predominantly driven by the pandemic. The competitiveness of the races on the ballot plays a big role as well, and the 2020 presidential primary is obviously no longer being contested (which may have driven down turnout in all of these states except Idaho and Iowa, which were holding only down-ballot primaries). But several states, including Idaho, New Mexico and South Dakota, featured less or equally competitive races in 2020 than in 2016 and still saw higher turnout, which was definitely a positive sign.
And the increased availability of mail voting may have had something to do with that. All nine jurisdictions for which we have data saw a huge spike in the share of voters opting to cast absentee ballots. Absentee voting was more common than in-person voting in every locale, and three states saw virtually every ballot cast absentee: Maryland and Montana, which mailed ballots to all registered voters, and Idaho, which did not open any polling places.
Tons of people voted by mail on June 2 The share of ballots cast absentee in the 10 jurisdictions that held primaries on June 2, and how much it increased since the 2016 primary Jurisdiction Absentee % Change from 2016 Idaho 100% – – +86 Montana 100 – – +30 Maryland 97 – – +93 Rhode Island 83 – – +80 Iowa 80 – – +61 Washington, D.C. 69 – – +62 Pennsylvania 64 – – +62 New Mexico 64 – – +57 South Dakota 58 – – +44 Based on preliminary data as of June 7. Data from Indiana was incomplete and is therefore not included. Source: State election officials
Beyond that, however, there is no clear pattern regarding best practices for vote-by-mail elections. Iowa, New Mexico, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Washington, D.C., for instance, sent every voter an absentee ballot application (so not an automatic ballot), but their absentee-voting rates ranged anywhere from 58 percent to 83 percent. By contrast, Pennsylvania, which merely sent voters a postcard with instructions on how to request a ballot, had 62 percent of its ballots cast absentee or by mail.
The heavy volume of mail voting also led to a resurgence of some of the issues that plagued the Wisconsin primary in early April. Many voters reported not receiving ballots they requested. In Maryland, issues with a vendor delayed the delivery of more than 1 million ballots. In Washington, D.C., enough people complained about not receiving their ballots on time that election officials eventually allowed some of them to cast their ballots via email, against the recommendations of election-security experts. And in Pennsylvania, voters waited an average of seven days to receive their ballots — two weeks in some counties. But the problems don’t stop there. In Delaware County, officials simply ran out of time to fulfill 400 absentee-ballot requests and sent out another 6,000 ballots on June 1 without return postage because they did not think any voters would be able to mail those ballots back in time. (These types of fears eventually prompted Gov. Tom Wolf to give voters in Delaware and five other counties an extra week to return their ballots.)
Subscribe to our coronavirus podcast, PODCAST-19
In addition, many cities experienced long lines at polling places after the number of in-person voting sites was slashed (a problem exacerbated by those who never received mail ballots being forced to vote in person). Long waits were reported in Baltimore; Bozeman, Montana; Des Moines, Iowa; Indianapolis; and Las Cruces, New Mexico. But the worst horror stories probably came from the nation’s capital, where the requirement that poll workers clean equipment between voters and limit the number of people who could enter each polling place caused long delays. Some people reported waiting up to five hours to vote and not leaving until about 1 a.m. — which they did amid a curfew imposed as a result of the week’s protests. And although voters were supposed to be exempt from the curfew, there were social-media reports of police telling voters standing in line to vote to go home. Similarly, some voters in Pennsylvania complained of voter intimidation, as one polling place in a predominantly black ward was located in a building that houses the police station, and armed police officers in riot gear stood watch over another.
Perhaps not coincidentally, two of the places where these problems seemed most acute (Maryland and Pennsylvania) were also among the ones where turnout dropped. And amid the possibility that large numbers of voters were disenfranchised, there are now calls for election officials in Maryland and Washington to resign over the snafus. So far, this year’s primaries continue to suggest the country is not fully prepared to hold the general election in a time of crisis.
Why switching to vote-by-mail is tougher than it seems | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-08--What Protests Can Do

What Protests Can Do

For two weeks now , the death of George Floyd , a black man killed by a police officer in Minneapolis , has gripped the nation , sparking nationwide protests calling for justice and changes to the criminal justice system .
But this latest wave of demonstrations isn ’ t an isolated event .
It ’ s part of a much larger movement , often grouped under the umbrella of Black Lives Matter , which has protested police killings and police misconduct since the early 2010s , after the shootings of Trayvon Martin in Florida and Michael Brown in Missouri @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Williamson of the Brookings Institution and political scientists Kris-Stella Trump and Katherine Levine Einstein shows that the number of Black Lives Matter protests in response to police killings of black civilians has grown from only a few in a handful of cities in 2013 to over 500 protests in nearly 200 cities in 2014 .
But what effect do these protests have ?
Political science , it turns out , actually has a lot to say about protests , even though it ’ s really hard to pinpoint what makes one protest effective @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though , there are four main ways the literature tries to evaluate a protest : • Were there institutional changes as a result ?
• Were there electoral consequences , either intended or unintended ?
First , protests , at their most basic level , raise awareness about issues that might not yet be in the mainstream .
This might not sound all that important , but research by political scientist Deva Woodly of The New School shows that protest movements can fundamentally alter the way we talk — and think — about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ movements around the fight for marriage equality from 1994 to 2004 , Woodly found that these movements succeeded in fostering a “ common sense ” of understanding around an issue by tapping into people ’ s sense of equality , relying on phrases like “ love ” and “ regular people.
” And in the case of the protests around Floyd ’ s death , that might mean changing how Americans talk and think about the disparate impact policing has on black communities and communities of color .
We don ’ t know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policing reform will change as a result of these protests , but there is some evidence that such shifts might be underway .
Using Google Trends data comparing Google search behavior prior to and after May 25 — the day Floyd was killed — it does seem as if more individuals are interrogating racism in their own lives , with searches like “ am I racist ” nearly tripling .
Phrases like “ abolish police , ” “ defund police ” and “ police abolition ” — concepts that have been central to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mainstream when discussing police reform — have also seen sharp upticks in interest .
What this tells us is that these protests are , in some way , raising awareness : People are seeking , or at least googling , more information .
In addition to increasing awareness of an issue , social movements can also change public attitudes toward it .
This , of course , is hard to measure .
But in at least some of the initial polling on Floyd ’ s death and the protests , we can see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overwhelming majority of Americans , for instance , say that Floyd ’ s death was wrong and the police officers involved should be held accountable .
Opinion around the protests is much murkier , even if most Americans are sympathetic to those protesting .
In studying how social movements change public opinion , Taeku Lee of the University of California , Berkeley found that protests can play a large part .
His analysis of the civil rights movement in the 1960s found that though the protests weren ’ t initially popular , sentiment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sense of apathy to one of moral outrage .
And in my own research of the civil rights protests , I found evidence of less racism and more support for affirmative action among white people from counties that had peaceful protests .
However , peaceful protests in other contexts — such as the anti-Vietnam War movement , the environmental movement and the Occupy Wall Street movement — have been less effective in moving public opinion .
For instance , concern about the environment has stayed relatively stable despite growing activism .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ protests haven ’ t been as effective , but it ’ s important to remember that media coverage can go a long way in influencing how the public thinks about different protests .
One big unknown is whether media coverage of the violence associated with some of the current protests might end up undermining support for the broader movement .
A recent study by Princeton University political scientist Omar Wasow suggests that could happen .
In his examination of protests during the civil rights movement , he found that areas that saw violent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nixon ’ s vote share in the 1968 election .
( Nixon campaigned heavily on a “ law and order ” message that some argued was a coded racist message to white America . )
Wasow ’ s study fits into a broader consensus that nonviolent protests tend to yield outcomes that achieve a movement ’ s goals better than violent protests do .
But there is some research that pushes back on this .
For instance , another recent study by political scientists Ryan Enos , Aaron Kaufman and Melissa Sands found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a violent reaction to the acquittal of four police officers caught on camera beating Rodney King , a black man — didn ’ t spark a backlash .
Instead , they found that the protests may have led to an increase in support for funding local public schools .
Similarly , the Black Lives Matter protests following the killings of Michael Brown and Eric Garner by police officers seemed to have led to decreased racial resentment among white Americans — especially among younger people — even though there was violence associated with some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to remember here is that minority-led protests historically tend to draw more of a police presence than predominantly white protests , and the police are often more likely to use force against minority-led protests .
So in many instances , the violence we may associate with these protests isn ’ t because these protests are inherently more violent ; it ’ s because they draw more intense police contact to begin with .
So if the research from the 1992 uprising and recent Black Lives Matter protests is any indication , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may not entirely upend a movement ’ s goals .
There does seem to be some consensus in the literature that many protests are successful in spurring institutional change , at least at the federal level .
As University of Pennsylvania political scientist Daniel Gillion has found , protests have tended to push legislators to vote more in line with protesters ’ goals .
The legislation that emerged from the civil rights movement is one such example , but Gillion also argues that the protests in 1968 pushed legislators to pass bills improving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Maneesh Arora , Davin Phoenix , and Archie Delshad , then of the University of California , Irvine , found that after the 2014 Black Lives Matter protests , state governments proposed and passed more bills aimed at addressing police accountability .
And political scientists Logan Dancey and Jasmine Masand , then both of Wesleyan University , found that in Congress , black legislators engaged with online discussions of race and policing more frequently than their white colleagues .
Protests don ’ t just impact legislation .
Megan Ming Francis , a political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has written extensively about how protests and civil rights organizations like the NAACP have effectively applied political pressure to the courts .
For instance , Francis describes how the NAACP simultaneously fought to change public opinion at the grassroots level while also bringing lawsuits to combat lynching , segregation and Jim Crow-era laws in the courts .
More broadly , this research underscores all the ways in which protests are often viewed as a political resource that allows marginalized groups to amplify their voices when traditional methods , such as voting , might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ finally , though protests may often be thought of as a last resort , they can also have important downstream consequences for elections .
Wasow ’ s work and my own research shows that large , peaceful protests during the civil rights movement actually helped Democratic presidential candidates — a finding that Gillion and Stanford ’ s Sarah Soule have observed in more recent protests as well .
But of course , as we also know from Wasow ’ s research , protests can have unintended consequences — i.e.
, more violent protests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s presidential vote share — so it ’ s not entirely clear what effect these protests will have on the general election .
On the one hand , they could mobilize the Republican base — although there are reasons why this might not be the case .
If the party tries to meet protesters ’ demands , the protests could also mobilize the Democratic base .
Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden and others seem to have begun to take action , although it ’ s still unclear where the conversation around police reform @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s also possible that the effects of these protests will be minimal come November .
It ’ s still too early to know what institutional changes or electoral consequences might result , but whether there will be an effect — including substantive legal action at the local , state and federal levels — is a real question .

UPDATE (August 27, 2020, 3:00 p.m.): We originally published this article earlier this year, amid protests against police brutality. In light of the shooting of Jacob Blake, who was shot seven times by a police officer in Kenosha, Wisconsin, this week, we’ve decided to recirculate the article.
For two weeks now, the death of George Floyd, a black man killed by a police officer in Minneapolis, has gripped the nation, sparking nationwide protests calling for justice and changes to the criminal justice system. But this latest wave of demonstrations isn’t an isolated event. It’s part of a much larger movement, often grouped under the umbrella of Black Lives Matter, which has protested police killings and police misconduct since the early 2010s, after the shootings of Trayvon Martin in Florida and Michael Brown in Missouri.
In fact, research by Vanessa Williamson of the Brookings Institution and political scientists Kris-Stella Trump and Katherine Levine Einstein shows that the number of Black Lives Matter protests in response to police killings of black civilians has grown from only a few in a handful of cities in 2013 to over 500 protests in nearly 200 cities in 2014.
But what effect do these protests have?
Political science, it turns out, actually has a lot to say about protests, even though it’s really hard to pinpoint what makes one protest effective and another not. Broadly speaking, though, there are four main ways the literature tries to evaluate a protest:
Did it raise awareness? Did public opinion change? Were there institutional changes as a result? Were there electoral consequences, either intended or unintended?
First, protests, at their most basic level, raise awareness about issues that might not yet be in the mainstream. This might not sound all that important, but research by political scientist Deva Woodly of The New School shows that protest movements can fundamentally alter the way we talk — and think — about a specific issue.
[Related: How The Protests Against Police Brutality Could Shape Electoral Politics]
Examining the protest movements around the fight for marriage equality from 1994 to 2004, Woodly found that these movements succeeded in fostering a “common sense” of understanding around an issue by tapping into people’s sense of equality, relying on phrases like “love” and “regular people.” And in the case of the protests around Floyd’s death, that might mean changing how Americans talk and think about the disparate impact policing has on black communities and communities of color.
We don’t know yet how language around criminal justice and policing reform will change as a result of these protests, but there is some evidence that such shifts might be underway. Using Google Trends data comparing Google search behavior prior to and after May 25 — the day Floyd was killed — it does seem as if more individuals are interrogating racism in their own lives, with searches like “am I racist” nearly tripling. Phrases like “abolish police,” “defund police” and “police abolition” — concepts that have been central to the Black Lives Matter movement but less mainstream when discussing police reform — have also seen sharp upticks in interest.
What this tells us is that these protests are, in some way, raising awareness: People are seeking, or at least googling, more information.
In addition to increasing awareness of an issue, social movements can also change public attitudes toward it. This, of course, is hard to measure. But in at least some of the initial polling on Floyd’s death and the protests, we can see that public opinion is coalescing. An overwhelming majority of Americans, for instance, say that Floyd’s death was wrong and the police officers involved should be held accountable. Opinion around the protests is much murkier, even if most Americans are sympathetic to those protesting.
[Related: How Americans Feel About George Floyd’s Death And The Protests]
In studying how social movements change public opinion, Taeku Lee of the University of California, Berkeley found that protests can play a large part. His analysis of the civil rights movement in the 1960s found that though the protests weren’t initially popular, sentiment among nonsouthern white Americans moved from a sense of apathy to one of moral outrage. And in my own research of the civil rights protests, I found evidence of less racism and more support for affirmative action among white people from counties that had peaceful protests.
[Related: Trump’s Use Of Tear Gas To Break Up A Protest Undermined Three Core Values Of American Democracy]
However, peaceful protests in other contexts — such as the anti-Vietnam War movement, the environmental movement and the Occupy Wall Street movement — have been less effective in moving public opinion. For instance, concern about the environment has stayed relatively stable despite growing activism. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly why these protests haven’t been as effective, but it’s important to remember that media coverage can go a long way in influencing how the public thinks about different protests.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Protests, then and now
One big unknown is whether media coverage of the violence associated with some of the current protests might end up undermining support for the broader movement. A recent study by Princeton University political scientist Omar Wasow suggests that could happen. In his examination of protests during the civil rights movement, he found that areas that saw violent protests reported an increase in President Richard Nixon’s vote share in the 1968 election. (Nixon campaigned heavily on a “law and order” message that some argued was a coded racist message to white America.)
Wasow’s study fits into a broader consensus that nonviolent protests tend to yield outcomes that achieve a movement’s goals better than violent protests do. But there is some research that pushes back on this. For instance, another recent study by political scientists Ryan Enos, Aaron Kaufman and Melissa Sands found that the 1992 Los Angeles uprising — a violent reaction to the acquittal of four police officers caught on camera beating Rodney King, a black man — didn’t spark a backlash. Instead, they found that the protests may have led to an increase in support for funding local public schools. Similarly, the Black Lives Matter protests following the killings of Michael Brown and Eric Garner by police officers seemed to have led to decreased racial resentment among white Americans — especially among younger people — even though there was violence associated with some of the protests.
[Related: De-escalation Keeps Protesters And Police Safer. Departments Respond With Force Anyway.]
One important thing to remember here is that minority-led protests historically tend to draw more of a police presence than predominantly white protests, and the police are often more likely to use force against minority-led protests. So in many instances, the violence we may associate with these protests isn’t because these protests are inherently more violent; it’s because they draw more intense police contact to begin with. So if the research from the 1992 uprising and recent Black Lives Matter protests is any indication, it’s possible that violence in some protests may not entirely upend a movement’s goals.
There does seem to be some consensus in the literature that many protests are successful in spurring institutional change, at least at the federal level. As University of Pennsylvania political scientist Daniel Gillion has found, protests have tended to push legislators to vote more in line with protesters’ goals. The legislation that emerged from the civil rights movement is one such example, but Gillion also argues that the protests in 1968 pushed legislators to pass bills improving public housing infrastructure. Similarly, researchers Maneesh Arora, Davin Phoenix, and Archie Delshad, then of the University of California, Irvine, found that after the 2014 Black Lives Matter protests, state governments proposed and passed more bills aimed at addressing police accountability. And political scientists Logan Dancey and Jasmine Masand, then both of Wesleyan University, found that in Congress, black legislators engaged with online discussions of race and policing more frequently than their white colleagues.
Protests don’t just impact legislation. Megan Ming Francis, a political scientist at the University of Washington, has written extensively about how protests and civil rights organizations like the NAACP have effectively applied political pressure to the courts. For instance, Francis describes how the NAACP simultaneously fought to change public opinion at the grassroots level while also bringing lawsuits to combat lynching, segregation and Jim Crow-era laws in the courts.
More broadly, this research underscores all the ways in which protests are often viewed as a political resource that allows marginalized groups to amplify their voices when traditional methods, such as voting, might not adequately represent their preferences.
And finally, though protests may often be thought of as a last resort, they can also have important downstream consequences for elections. Wasow’s work and my own research shows that large, peaceful protests during the civil rights movement actually helped Democratic presidential candidates — a finding that Gillion and Stanford’s Sarah Soule have observed in more recent protests as well.
But of course, as we also know from Wasow’s research, protests can have unintended consequences — i.e., more violent protests corresponding with an uptick in Nixon’s presidential vote share — so it’s not entirely clear what effect these protests will have on the general election. On the one hand, they could mobilize the Republican base — although there are reasons why this might not be the case.
[Related: If Republicans Are Ever Going To Turn On Trump, This Might Be The Moment]
If the party tries to meet protesters’ demands, the protests could also mobilize the Democratic base. Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden and others seem to have begun to take action, although it’s still unclear where the conversation around police reform may head next.
However, it’s also possible that the effects of these protests will be minimal come November. It’s still too early to know what institutional changes or electoral consequences might result, but whether there will be an effect — including substantive legal action at the local, state and federal levels — is a real question.


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-08--The Two Autopsies Of George Floyd Aren’t As Different As They Seem

Do the autopsies of George Floyd agree , or not ?
News reports from last week suggest the report produced by the Hennepin County medical examiner and the one produced by an examiner hired by Floyd ’ s family disagreed on his cause of death .
The county ruled the cause to be “ cardiopulmonary arrest complicating law enforcement subdual , restraint , and neck compression.
” It also cited heart disease and drug use as factors that could have contributed to the death .
The secondary autopsy , by contrast , specifically said Floyd died from asphyxia .
So @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of them , experts who weren ’ t affiliated with the case said .
In fact , according to forensic pathologists and medical experts , the two autopsy reports aren ’ t actually all that different in their conclusions .
“ They are just different ways of describing the same thing , ” said Dr. Joye Carter , forensic pathologist to the sheriff of San Luis Obispo County , California .
What ’ s more , experts told me , the autopsies of George Floyd help show the complexity of medical examinations , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can and can not tell us .
Some of the public confusion over Floyd ’ s autopsy reports can be blamed on misinterpretation by the media and the public , said Dr. Judy Melinek , a San Francisco-based forensic pathologist .
“ Anybody suggesting asphyxia was ruled out by the medical examiner is wrong , ” she said .
Indeed , lots of people suggested just that , with media describing the reports as “ drastically different ” and nearly describing the county report as absolving the white police officer who pressed his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 8 minutes .
The Hennepin County autopsy may have mentioned factors beyond police conduct , but it was really just saying Floyd ’ s heart stopped while police were restraining him and pressing on his neck , said Melinek , Carter and Dr. Michael Freeman , professor of forensic medicine and epidemiology at Maastricht University in the Netherlands .
It ’ s not a claim that he died of a heart attack , drugs , or pre-existing conditions , they told me .
“ The cause of death is police restraint , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ autopsy Floyd ’ s family commissioned .
The reason it might seem like the exams disagree , they said , is because people expect a single cause of death in an autopsy report .
But most people don ’ t die from just one thing .
Instead , both death certificates and autopsy evaluations are set up to tell as detailed a story as possible — death happened , as a result of something , complicated by another thing , and maybe with other factors that were present .
You ’ re supposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and all the possible compounding factors .
But documenting potential contributing factors isn ’ t the same as saying that ’ s what caused the death .
These reports — and the public confusion around them — also highlight how complex forensic pathology can really be .
Take the confusion over asphyxiation .
As he was dying , Floyd told the police officers that he couldn ’ t breathe , eventually stopped speaking and then went limp .
So it surprised a lot of people when the autopsy reports came across as saying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of asphyxiation .
That is both a misunderstanding of the report and an example of the difficulty in identifying cause of death , experts said .
It ’ s a misunderstanding because an earlier legal document , put out to explain the charges against the officer who kneeled on Floyd , said the county had found no injuries consistent with asphyxia caused by physical trauma .
But the actual autopsy report doesn ’ t mention the word “ asphyxia ” at all .
It does , however , describe “ neck compression ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s death — meaning the blood flow ( and , thus , oxygen ) to Floyd ’ s brain and heart were cut off .
It doesn ’ t take physical trauma to asphyxiate someone .
And that ’ s where the difficulty of pinning down cause of death comes in , said Dr. Karl Williams , a forensic pathologist who is the chief medical examiner of Allegheny County ( home to Pittsburgh ) , Pennsylvania .
“ After that video we know why he died , ” Williams said .
“ But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ OK , that there ’ s going to be any evidence of that.
” You can make someone lose consciousness just by compressing the arteries and veins in their neck , cutting off blood flow to and from the brain , he told me .
Williams said he has watched experts demonstrate this effect at conferences .
People will lose consciousness after 7-to-10 seconds , he said .
“ It ’ s very reproducible .
We vary on where the point of no return would be , but if you block those veins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re dead.
” But there ’ s no medical literature of what happens to a person ’ s body when someone kneels on their neck for more than eight minutes , as Derek Chauvin , the Minneapolis police officer now charged with second-degree murder , did to Floyd .
So no medical examiner can call up that data and compare it to what they found in Floyd ’ s body , Williams told me .
The result , he said , has been whole listserves full of medical examiners going over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back and forth for the past week about how they would write the report .
“ There certainly is individual variety , ” Carter said .
“ Medicine is a practice and everything isn ’ t rubber stamped the same way.
” Everybody agrees Floyd ’ s death was a homicide , Williams told me .
But when you get to the specific cause of death , and the order of priority of multiple causes , subjectivity comes into play .
“ If you were to present that video to 100 different board @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get 20 , 30 , 40 different ways of turning that into the statement of death , ” he said .
“ This happens with about 5-to-10 percent of the cases we do.
” Another good example of an issue where forensic pathologists don ’ t agree : the existence of a controversial diagnosis — “ excited delirium ” — which was discussed by the officers at the scene of Floyd ’ s death .
( Neither of Floyd ’ s autopsies mentioned the condition and none of the experts I spoke to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The basic idea behind excited delirium is that someone who is high on stimulants , such as cocaine or methamphetamines , can get into a place where their mind is no longer functioning normally .
“ They become agitated and violent and hyperthermic , so their body temperature goes up and they undress and act inappropriately .
They might break glass and be unaware of their environment .
They ’ re hallucinating , ” Melinek said .
That situation can often lead to someone being restrained by multiple police officers while they fight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — and the death ends up attributed to excited delirium , rather than to the restraint .
Melinek , Carter and Williams all believe this is a real diagnosis that really does cause death in some situations — though Carter added that restraint can contribute to those deaths .
But Freeman isn ’ t so sure excited delirium is a legitimate cause of death .
The dead people diagnosed with it tend to be young , black males who died in police custody , he said .
“ There ’ s been cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ done an exam , found 12 broken ribs , a history of extreme restraint and all sorts of things going on , ” he said .
“ But they find a relatively small amount , a recreational level of methamphetamine in the blood and they say , ‘ Oh it ’ s excited delirium.
’ Which completely exculpates the law enforcement from causing the death , which they clearly did.
” Freeman ’ s research team currently has a paper in the process of being published that reviews scientific studies comparing excited delirium @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a medical diagnosis that gets applied more by doctors treating a person who lived , while excited delirium is primarily used by forensic pathologists examining a person who died .
While both syndromes present with roughly the same symptoms , Freeman ’ s team found that restraint was used in 90 percent of the cases that turned out to be fatal .
Only 2 percent of fatal cases involved no restraints .
( The rest were unknown . )
Forceful restraints such as manhandling or hog-tying were also significantly more likely in fatal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is that there ’ s evidence it ’ s not the excited delirium that kills people .
It ’ s the way they are restrained .
All the experts I spoke to see no evidence of excited delirium in Floyd ’ s case .
In the video of his death , Melinek pointed out , you can clearly see that he is not sweating excessively , nor is he dressed inappropriately .
He communicates clearly with officers and bystanders and is coherent even as he is pleading for his life .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the scene suggested this diagnosis , and that legal scholars believe it will come up in Chauvin ’ s defense , demonstrates how medical analysis can be used in cases like this .
And how disagreement among forensic pathologists about how to describe the evidence in a case can muddy the legal waters .
“ There are very few checks and balances , and that ’ s really the issue here , ” Freeman said .
“ There ’ s nobody to second guess your work [ as a medical examiner ] @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a biased fashion — systematically always doing it wrong … it ’ s disadvantaged populations who are getting these diagnoses .
”

Do the autopsies of George Floyd agree, or not? News reports from last week suggest the report produced by the Hennepin County medical examiner and the one produced by an examiner hired by Floyd’s family disagreed on his cause of death. The county ruled the cause to be “cardiopulmonary arrest complicating law enforcement subdual, restraint, and neck compression.” It also cited heart disease and drug use as factors that could have contributed to the death. The secondary autopsy, by contrast, specifically said Floyd died from asphyxia.
So who is right? Well, both of them, experts who weren’t affiliated with the case said. In fact, according to forensic pathologists and medical experts, the two autopsy reports aren’t actually all that different in their conclusions. “They are just different ways of describing the same thing,” said Dr. Joye Carter, forensic pathologist to the sheriff of San Luis Obispo County, California. What’s more, experts told me, the autopsies of George Floyd help show the complexity of medical examinations, how those examinations work and what they can and cannot tell us.
Some of the public confusion over Floyd’s autopsy reports can be blamed on misinterpretation by the media and the public, said Dr. Judy Melinek, a San Francisco-based forensic pathologist . “Anybody suggesting asphyxia was ruled out by the medical examiner is wrong,” she said. Indeed, lots of people suggested just that, with media describing the reports as “drastically different” and nearly describing the county report as absolving the white police officer who pressed his knee into Floyd’s back for 8 minutes.
The Hennepin County autopsy may have mentioned factors beyond police conduct, but it was really just saying Floyd’s heart stopped while police were restraining him and pressing on his neck, said Melinek, Carter and Dr. Michael Freeman, professor of forensic medicine and epidemiology at Maastricht University in the Netherlands. It’s not a claim that he died of a heart attack, drugs, or pre-existing conditions, they told me. “The cause of death is police restraint,” Melinek said, just like in the autopsy Floyd’s family commissioned.
The reason it might seem like the exams disagree, they said, is because people expect a single cause of death in an autopsy report. But most people don’t die from just one thing. Instead, both death certificates and autopsy evaluations are set up to tell as detailed a story as possible — death happened, as a result of something, complicated by another thing, and maybe with other factors that were present. You’re supposed to compile the full chain of events and all the possible compounding factors. But documenting potential contributing factors isn’t the same as saying that’s what caused the death.
[Related: The Uncounted Dead]
These reports — and the public confusion around them — also highlight how complex forensic pathology can really be. Take the confusion over asphyxiation. As he was dying, Floyd told the police officers that he couldn’t breathe, eventually stopped speaking and then went limp. So it surprised a lot of people when the autopsy reports came across as saying that they’d found no evidence of asphyxiation.
That is both a misunderstanding of the report and an example of the difficulty in identifying cause of death, experts said. It’s a misunderstanding because an earlier legal document, put out to explain the charges against the officer who kneeled on Floyd, said the county had found no injuries consistent with asphyxia caused by physical trauma. But the actual autopsy report doesn’t mention the word “asphyxia” at all. It does, however, describe “neck compression” as a direct cause of Floyd’s death — meaning the blood flow (and, thus, oxygen) to Floyd’s brain and heart were cut off. It doesn’t take physical trauma to asphyxiate someone.
And that’s where the difficulty of pinning down cause of death comes in, said Dr. Karl Williams, a forensic pathologist who is the chief medical examiner of Allegheny County (home to Pittsburgh), Pennsylvania. “After that video we know why he died,” Williams said. “But it doesn’t necessarily mean, OK, that there’s going to be any evidence of that.” You can make someone lose consciousness just by compressing the arteries and veins in their neck, cutting off blood flow to and from the brain, he told me. Williams said he has watched experts demonstrate this effect at conferences. People will lose consciousness after 7-to-10 seconds, he said. “It’s very reproducible. We vary on where the point of no return would be, but if you block those veins for three to four minutes, you’re dead.”
But there’s no medical literature of what happens to a person’s body when someone kneels on their neck for more than eight minutes, as Derek Chauvin, the Minneapolis police officer now charged with second-degree murder, did to Floyd. So no medical examiner can call up that data and compare it to what they found in Floyd’s body, Williams told me. The result, he said, has been whole listserves full of medical examiners going over the evidence in the Floyd case and arguing back and forth for the past week about how they would write the report. “There certainly is individual variety,” Carter said. “Medicine is a practice and everything isn’t rubber stamped the same way.”
[Related: How Americans Feel About George Floyd’s Death And The Protests]
Everybody agrees Floyd’s death was a homicide, Williams told me. But when you get to the specific cause of death, and the order of priority of multiple causes, subjectivity comes into play. “If you were to present that video to 100 different board certified forensic pathologists, you’d get 20, 30, 40 different ways of turning that into the statement of death,” he said. “This happens with about 5-to-10 percent of the cases we do.”
Another good example of an issue where forensic pathologists don’t agree: the existence of a controversial diagnosis — “excited delirium” — which was discussed by the officers at the scene of Floyd’s death. (Neither of Floyd’s autopsies mentioned the condition and none of the experts I spoke to believe it applies to him.) The basic idea behind excited delirium is that someone who is high on stimulants, such as cocaine or methamphetamines, can get into a place where their mind is no longer functioning normally. “They become agitated and violent and hyperthermic, so their body temperature goes up and they undress and act inappropriately. They might break glass and be unaware of their environment. They’re hallucinating,” Melinek said. That situation can often lead to someone being restrained by multiple police officers while they fight back violently. Sometimes the person dies — and the death ends up attributed to excited delirium, rather than to the restraint.
Melinek, Carter and Williams all believe this is a real diagnosis that really does cause death in some situations — though Carter added that restraint can contribute to those deaths. But Freeman isn’t so sure excited delirium is a legitimate cause of death. The dead people diagnosed with it tend to be young, black males who died in police custody, he said. “There’s been cases where the [medical examiner] has done an exam, found 12 broken ribs, a history of extreme restraint and all sorts of things going on,” he said. “But they find a relatively small amount, a recreational level of methamphetamine in the blood and they say, ‘Oh it’s excited delirium.’ Which completely exculpates the law enforcement from causing the death, which they clearly did.” Freeman’s research team currently has a paper in the process of being published that reviews scientific studies comparing excited delirium with cases of agitated delirium syndrome — a medical diagnosis that gets applied more by doctors treating a person who lived, while excited delirium is primarily used by forensic pathologists examining a person who died.
While both syndromes present with roughly the same symptoms, Freeman’s team found that restraint was used in 90 percent of the cases that turned out to be fatal. Only 2 percent of fatal cases involved no restraints. (The rest were unknown.) Forceful restraints such as manhandling or hog-tying were also significantly more likely in fatal cases. The point, Freeman said, is that there’s evidence it’s not the excited delirium that kills people. It’s the way they are restrained.
All the experts I spoke to see no evidence of excited delirium in Floyd’s case. In the video of his death, Melinek pointed out, you can clearly see that he is not sweating excessively, nor is he dressed inappropriately. He communicates clearly with officers and bystanders and is coherent even as he is pleading for his life. But the fact that one of the officers at the scene suggested this diagnosis, and that legal scholars believe it will come up in Chauvin’s defense, demonstrates how medical analysis can be used in cases like this. And how disagreement among forensic pathologists about how to describe the evidence in a case can muddy the legal waters.
“There are very few checks and balances, and that’s really the issue here,” Freeman said. “There’s nobody to second guess your work [as a medical examiner]. If there is somebody doing something in a biased fashion — systematically always doing it wrong … it’s disadvantaged populations who are getting these diagnoses.”
Most Americans still trust scientists l FiveThirtyEight


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-08--What Protests Can (And Can’t) Do

What Protests Can (And Can’t) Do

For two weeks now , the death of George Floyd , a black man killed by a police officer in Minneapolis , has gripped the nation , sparking nationwide protests calling for justice and changes to the criminal justice system .
But this latest wave of demonstrations isn ’ t an isolated event .
It ’ s part of a much larger movement , often grouped under the umbrella of Black Lives Matter , which has protested police killings and police misconduct since the early 2010s , after the shootings of Trayvon Martin in Florida and Michael Brown in Missouri @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Williamson of the Brookings Institution and political scientists Kris-Stella Trump and Katherine Levine Einstein shows that the number of Black Lives Matter protests in response to police killings of black civilians has grown from only a few in a handful of cities in 2013 to over 500 protests in nearly 200 cities in 2014 .
But what effect do these protests have ?
Political science , it turns out , actually has a lot to say about protests , even though it ’ s really hard to pinpoint what makes one protest effective @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though , there are four main ways the literature tries to evaluate a protest : • Were there institutional changes as a result ?
• Were there electoral consequences , either intended or unintended ?
First , protests , at their most basic level , raise awareness about issues that might not yet be in the mainstream .
This might not sound all that important , but research by political scientist Deva Woodly of The New School shows that protest movements can fundamentally alter the way we talk — and think — about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ How The Protests Against Police Brutality Could Shape Electoral Politics ] Examining the protest movements around the fight for marriage equality from 1994 to 2004 , Woodly found that these movements succeeded in fostering a “ common sense ” of understanding around an issue by tapping into people ’ s sense of equality , relying on phrases like “ love ” and “ regular people.
” And in the case of the protests around Floyd ’ s death , that might mean changing how Americans talk and think about the disparate impact policing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ color .
We don ’ t know yet how language around criminal justice and policing reform will change as a result of these protests , but there is some evidence that such shifts might be underway .
Using Google Trends data comparing Google search behavior prior to and after May 25 — the day Floyd was killed — it does seem as if more individuals are interrogating racism in their own lives , with searches like “ am I racist ” nearly tripling .
Phrases like “ abolish police , ” “ defund @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — concepts that have been central to the Black Lives Matter movement but less mainstream when discussing police reform — have also seen sharp upticks in interest .
What this tells us is that these protests are , in some way , raising awareness : People are seeking , or at least googling , more information .
In addition to increasing awareness of an issue , social movements can also change public attitudes toward it .
This , of course , is hard to measure .
But in at least some of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the protests , we can see that public opinion is coalescing .
An overwhelming majority of Americans , for instance , say that Floyd ’ s death was wrong and the police officers involved should be held accountable .
Opinion around the protests is much murkier , even if most Americans are sympathetic to those protesting .
[ Related : How Americans Feel About George Floyd ’ s Death And The Protests ] In studying how social movements change public opinion , Taeku Lee of the University of California , Berkeley found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
His analysis of the civil rights movement in the 1960s found that though the protests weren ’ t initially popular , sentiment among nonsouthern white Americans moved from a sense of apathy to one of moral outrage .
And in my own research of the civil rights protests , I found evidence of less racism and more support for affirmative action among white people from counties that had peaceful protests .
[ Related : Trump ’ s Use Of Tear Gas To Break Up A Protest Undermined Three Core Values Of American @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other contexts — such as the anti-Vietnam War movement , the environmental movement and the Occupy Wall Street movement — have been less effective in moving public opinion .
For instance , concern about the environment has stayed relatively stable despite growing activism .
It ’ s hard to pinpoint exactly why these protests haven ’ t been as effective , but it ’ s important to remember that media coverage can go a long way in influencing how the public thinks about different protests .
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast : Protests , then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ media coverage of the violence associated with some of the current protests might end up undermining support for the broader movement .
A recent study by Princeton University political scientist Omar Wasow suggests that could happen .
In his examination of protests during the civil rights movement , he found that areas that saw violent protests reported an increase in President Richard Nixon ’ s vote share in the 1968 election .
( Nixon campaigned heavily on a “ law and order ” message that some argued was a coded racist message to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ study fits into a broader consensus that nonviolent protests tend to yield outcomes that achieve a movement ’ s goals better than violent protests do .
But there is some research that pushes back on this .
For instance , another recent study by political scientists Ryan Enos , Aaron Kaufman and Melissa Sands found that the 1992 Los Angeles uprising — a violent reaction to the acquittal of four police officers caught on camera beating Rodney King , a black man — didn ’ t spark a backlash .
Instead , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to an increase in support for funding local public schools .
Similarly , the Black Lives Matter protests following the killings of Michael Brown and Eric Garner by police officers seemed to have led to decreased racial resentment among white Americans — especially among younger people — even though there was violence associated with some of the protests .
[ Related : De-escalation Keeps Protesters And Police Safer .
Departments Respond With Force Anyway . ]
One important thing to remember here is that minority-led protests historically tend to draw more of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the police are often more likely to use force against minority-led protests .
So in many instances , the violence we may associate with these protests isn ’ t because these protests are inherently more violent ; it ’ s because they draw more intense police contact to begin with .
So if the research from the 1992 uprising and recent Black Lives Matter protests is any indication , it ’ s possible that violence in some protests may not entirely upend a movement ’ s goals .
There does seem to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many protests are successful in spurring institutional change , at least at the federal level .
As University of Pennsylvania political scientist Daniel Gillion has found , protests have tended to push legislators to vote more in line with protesters ’ goals .
The legislation that emerged from the civil rights movement is one such example , but Gillion also argues that the protests in 1968 pushed legislators to pass bills improving public housing infrastructure .
Similarly , researchers Maneesh Arora , Davin Phoenix , and Archie Delshad , then of the University @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after the 2014 Black Lives Matter protests , state governments proposed and passed more bills aimed at addressing police accountability .
And political scientists Logan Dancey and Jasmine Masand , then both of Wesleyan University , found that in Congress , black legislators engaged with online discussions of race and policing more frequently than their white colleagues .
Protests don ’ t just impact legislation .
Megan Ming Francis , a political scientist at the University of Washington , has written extensively about how protests and civil rights organizations like the NAACP have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
For instance , Francis describes how the NAACP simultaneously fought to change public opinion at the grassroots level while also bringing lawsuits to combat lynching , segregation and Jim Crow-era laws in the courts .
More broadly , this research underscores all the ways in which protests are often viewed as a political resource that allows marginalized groups to amplify their voices when traditional methods , such as voting , might not adequately represent their preferences .
And finally , though protests may often be thought of as a last resort , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for elections .
Wasow ’ s work and my own research shows that large , peaceful protests during the civil rights movement actually helped Democratic presidential candidates — a finding that Gillion and Stanford ’ s Sarah Soule have observed in more recent protests as well .
But of course , as we also know from Wasow ’ s research , protests can have unintended consequences — i.e.
, more violent protests corresponding with an uptick in Nixon ’ s presidential vote share — so it ’ s not entirely clear what effect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ election .
On the one hand , they could mobilize the Republican base — although there are reasons why this might not be the case .
[ Related : If Republicans Are Ever Going To Turn On Trump , This Might Be The Moment ] If the party tries to meet protesters ’ demands , the protests could also mobilize the Democratic base .
Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden and others seem to have begun to take action , although it ’ s still unclear where the conversation around police reform may head @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also possible that the effects of these protests will be minimal come November .
It ’ s still too early to know what institutional changes or electoral consequences might result , but whether there will be an effect — including substantive legal action at the local , state and federal levels — is a real question .