fivethirtyeight--2020-10-21--Who Will Win The Last Presidential Debate?

How likely do you think each is to win ?
How likely are you to vote for each ?
With less than two weeks until Election Day , Thursday marks the final time President Trump and Joe Biden will face off in a presidential debate .
As in previous debates , we ’ re partnering with Ipsos to see how voters react to the candidates .
The poll uses Ipsos ’ s KnowledgePanel to check in with the same group of people twice — before and after the debate — to see whether the debate affects their views of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were also given the option of third-party candidates or ‘ someone else.
’ Additionally , they could indicate that they will not vote .
Respondents are very sure of who they plan to vote for : 45 percent of respondents said they are “ absolutely certain ” to vote for Biden and 32 percent said the same of Trump .
Very few are torn — just 2 percent said they were split 50-50 between Biden and Trump .
However , despite Biden ’ s commanding lead in the polls and among the respondents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that he can win the presidency .
Overall , 37 percent of respondents said either Trump or Biden was “ absolutely certain ” to win , while 16 percent thought it was a total toss-up ( 50-50 ) .
Supporters are more certain of their vote than they are excited to vote How likely and how excited respondents are to vote in the 2020 presidential election , by preferred candidate We grouped respondents by which candidate they gave the higher score to ( out of 10 ) .
Respondents who gave both candidates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Respondents who already voted are included in the “ absolutely certain ” bucket and respondents who gave themselves a 50-50 shot of voting are included in the “ not too likely ” bucket .
A large share of Biden and Trump ’ s supporters said they were “ absolutely certain ” to vote , and that includes a huge chunk that has already voted : 44 percent of Biden ’ s backers and 24 percent of Trump ’ s .
Enthusiasm wasn ’ t quite as high , with just under half of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were “ very excited ” to vote .

Thursday’s debate marked the last time President Trump and Joe Biden will face off before Election Day, and it offered quite a contrast in tone compared to the last debate. (If you missed it, you can relive it in all its glory over at our live blog.) But did it affect the race at all? Or are views so baked in that they haven’t budged? We partnered with Ipsos to once again check in with the same group of people before and after the debate using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel.
Support for Biden and Trump didn’t really change, but many still think the race is close
How likely respondents are to vote for each candidate and how likely they think each candidate is to win, on a scale from 0 (no chance) to 10 (absolutely certain)
Respondents were also given the option of third-party candidates or ‘someone else.’ Additionally, they could indicate that they will not vote.
Most respondents went into the debate with a clear candidate preference, and that didn’t really change. The debate also didn’t have much of an effect on who respondents thought would win the presidency, although fewer people said the race was a toss-up (14 percent, compared to 16 percent before the debate). The share who thought Biden had a better chance of winning increased from 43 percent to 46 percent, though both those changes are well within the poll’s margin of error.
Biden got higher marks for his performance — and his policies
How respondents rated each candidate’s debate performance and their answers on policies
Performance Policies Candidate good poor good poor Trump 51.8% 46.1% 43.8% 53.5% Biden 68.7 29.6 60.2 37.9
Only among respondents who said that they had watched some or all of the debate.
On the whole, debate watchers were more impressed with both Biden and Trump’s performance than they were in the first debate: 76 percent thought the debate was “somewhat good” or “very good.” The share who thought Trump’s performance was “somewhat good” or “very good” jumped from one-third in the last debate to a little over half in this debate. Biden got higher marks, too, up from 60 percent to 69 percent.
There was less change in viewers’ assessments of their policies, though. Forty-four percent thought Trump’s policy answers were good, compared to 60 percent for Biden — although both of those ratings are a few percentage points higher than in the first debate.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-22--Is Tonight’s Presidential Debate Too Late To Shake Up The Race?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight ’ s politics chat .
The transcript below has been lightly edited .
sarah ( Sarah Frostenson , politics editor ) : This is it — the last presidential debate — and , as we ’ ve said in our presidential forecast for a while now , President Trump is running out of time .
Joe Biden has a double-digit lead in national polls and has gotten a number of good state polls in the past few days .
We still expect the race to tighten here in the home stretch , and a debate is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But it ’ s also true that the last two weeks before an election don ’ t necessarily change the race all that much .
So , let ’ s start there .
How big are the stakes going into tonight ?
nrakich ( Nathaniel Rakich , elections analyst ) : The stakes are kind of big but also kind of not ?
On the one hand , it ’ s the last obvious opportunity for Trump to win voters over and for Biden to screw up .
On the other hand , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wall for Trump .
Granted , our presidential forecast still gives him a 13-in-100 chance of staging a comeback .
But Trump just hasn ’ t shown any inclination to change his base-first strategy .
He ’ s also been behind Biden for a while now in our forecast : I guess I ’ m just not counting on seeing a different Trump tonight from the one who bombed in the first debate .
kaleigh ( Kaleigh Rogers , tech and politics reporter ) : It ’ s rare for debates to have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the best of times , so it ’ s hard to imagine a scenario where this debate upends things in a dramatic way .
geoffrey.skelley ( Geoffrey Skelley , elections analyst ) : Given how rare live events are in the COVID-19 era , though , it ’ s not impossible that something could come out that reflects poorly on Biden .
So , in that sense , it is a big deal .
At the same time , a national poll from The Economist/YouGov found this week that Biden led 52 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and that only 4 percent of those voters said they might change their minds .
So , unless Trump can win over the incredibly small number of voters who genuinely are unsure — there are a lot fewer undecided voters this year — it ’ s going to be tough to win the election .
And I ’ m not sure much can happen that ’ s going to shift public opinion sharply .
kaleigh : Like Nathaniel , I ’ m curious to see whether Trump changes his strategy at all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ limit how much he can talk over Biden , but arguably , that tactic didn ’ t work so well .
At least one poll found the majority of respondents disapproved of Trump ’ s behavior in the last debate , and even some Republicans said it made them support him less afterward .
nrakich : I ’ m not so sure the muted mics will make a big difference , Kaleigh .
Maybe we won ’ t be able to hear Trump ’ s interruptions , but Biden will .
And that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mid-answer .
sarah : Saying Trump bombed is a bit harsh , though , Nathaniel .
After all , Clinton “ won ” the 2016 debates , and we saw how that turned out .
It ’ s easy to get obsessed with comparisons to 2016 , and as we ’ ve written , you shouldn ’ t make too much of one election — after all , it ’ s a sample size of one .
That said , there are some pretty big differences from 2016 , yes ?
kaleigh : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That ’ s a pretty stark contrast .
It has changed how we vote , how candidates campaign , how the economy is doing and so much more .
I wonder how different this election would be compared with 2016 ’ s if COVID-19 hadn ’ t happened .
geoffrey.skelley : Well , as that Economist/YouGov survey and others have shown , this election has far fewer undecided or third-party voters , which makes it harder for the debates to move mountains .
In FiveThirtyEight ’ s national polling average , Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up to about 94 percent .
But at the same point in 2016 , Trump and Clinton totaled just about 86 percent — a lot more voters were in play even in the late stages of the campaign .
The same is true in state-level polls as well .
For example , around 95 percent of voters in Wisconsin are backing Biden or Trump in our polling average , whereas 86 percent of voters there said they supported Trump or Clinton at this point in 2016. nrakich : Not to mention , Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Clinton ’ s was at this stage of the 2016 campaign .
As of Wednesday afternoon , Biden led by 9.9 points in our national polling average ; 13 days before Election Day in 2016 , Clinton would have led by an average of 6.4 points , using the same methodology .
Something else that I think makes tonight ’ s debate less important : At least a quarter of voters have probably already cast their ballots .
According to statistics collected by political scientist Michael McDonald , more than 41 million early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or 30 percent of 2016 turnout ( although 2020 turnout could be much higher if voter enthusiasm is any indication ) .
So , even if something big happens tonight , a lot of people will have already voted .
geoffrey.skelley : That ’ s true , Nathaniel , but it could be that those early voters would have voted already anyway , as studies have shown that voters who vote early are more likely to be very partisan .
Or , put another way , maybe those people weren ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sarah : Those are all really good points — especially Kaleigh ’ s , about what this election would have looked like if COVID-19 hadn ’ t happened .
What could we be missing , though ?
( And one big reason why comparisons to 2016 have their limitations ! )
nrakich : Well , it ’ s always possible there will be a polling error .
So , if the debate budges the polls just enough — say , to where Biden has a 4-point national lead instead of a 10-point one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Trump could win .
If Biden stays at +10 nationally , though , it would take a truly bonkers polling error to save Trump .
kaleigh : There are also more conventional differences .
For example , this election has an incumbent candidate .
geoffrey.skelley : Speaking of polling error — and whether we could have a “ Dewey Defeats Truman ” on our hands — pollsters have tried to account for some of the things that led to problems with state polls in 2016 .
For example , some are weighting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ education and race , to avoid underrepresenting white voters without a college degree , voters who went so strongly for Trump in 2016 .
So , some state polls could be better this time — although , of course , it ’ s impossible to predict the direction of a polling error before an election .
sarah : OK , back to the debate .
The rules have changed , as Kaleigh and Nathaniel were mentioning earlier , and now the moderator can mute the candidates if they speak out of turn .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ six issues they are expected to stick to : What do we think might be covered by these issues ?
What plays to Biden ’ s strengths ?
And Trump ’ s ?
geoffrey.skelley : Well , I ’ m going to go out on a limb and say that “ fighting COVID-19 ” is not going to go well for Trump because Americans generally think he ’ s done a poor job handling the pandemic .
That leaves Biden with a lot of material to work with .
nrakich : Yeah — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the last debate , respondents said 78 percent to 20 percent that Biden was better on the issue of COVID-19 .
And that was before Trump announced he had tested positive for COVID-19 .
kaleigh : Trump has already been trying to positively spin his bout with the coronavirus — he ’ s been through it !
He survived !
But it will be pretty easy for Biden to point out that Trump didn ’ t take the virus seriously since he actually caught it .
Not to mention , many Americans don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ precautions , and there are signs that this hurt him electorally .
nrakich : I ’ m curious what the “ American families ” segment will touch on … does anyone have any inkling what that means ?
geoffrey.skelley : 🤷♂ Perhaps it ’ s a roundabout way of saying the economy .
Kitchen table issues .
Of course , the economy touches almost every topic to some extent .
kaleigh : That ’ s my bet , Geoffrey , but it ’ s just vague enough to be uncertain .
sarah : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Or , at the very least , I can imagine suburban families being mentioned by both Biden and Trump .
Trump won suburban voters in 2016 , but he ’ s in real trouble here in 2020 , as many white suburban women are continuing to move away from the Republican Party , as we saw in 2018 .
But , yeah , given the economy ranked as voters ’ first or second issue , according to our polling with Ipsos , I think that ’ s right , too , Geoffrey and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where Trump has always had an advantage .
nrakich : “ Climate change ” and “ race in America ” also seem like good issues for Biden .
According to that Ipsos poll , more than 90 percent of Americans trust Biden more than Trump on both of those issues !
On the other hand , they also said they trust Trump more than Biden , about 81 percent to 18 percent , on “ violent crime.
” So Trump might try to reframe the segment on race in America into one about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ security , I think it ’ s fair to say that segment will move the fewest votes .
American elections generally aren ’ t decided on foreign-policy grounds .
kaleigh : Honestly , is there anything in that lineup that isn ’ t well-trodden territory at this point ?
sarah : Yeah , it is hard to imagine that any of the issues discussed tonight will cover new ground in a way that sways voters .
They do feel like well-trodden talking points at this stage , and the reality remains that Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Otherwise , his odds in our forecast will continue to fall .
But , of course , even a 5 percent chance of something happening is something you should take seriously .
OK , the stakes are high .
Trump needs some movement in the polls , and Biden isn ’ t a safe bet .
What will you be watching for tonight , and in the last week of the election — knowing , of course , we ’ re all kind of flying blind ?
nrakich : To me , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maintain his 10-point national lead after this debate ?
Or will tonight “ reset ” the race and bring the polling average down to Biden +7 or so , which is where it has been for most of the year ?
Even if that were to happen , Biden would still have a good chance of winning , but the size of his margin could determine things like whether Democrats win the Senate or the number of state legislatures Democrats flip .
geoffrey.skelley : It ’ s true that incumbent presidents have had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , only to come back stronger in later ones .
This was true of Barack Obama in 2012 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 .
So don ’ t count out a much better showing from Trump tonight .

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): This is it — the last presidential debate — and, as we’ve said in our presidential forecast for a while now, President Trump is running out of time. Joe Biden has a double-digit lead in national polls and has gotten a number of good state polls in the past few days.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
We still expect the race to tighten here in the home stretch, and a debate is a great way for that to happen. But it’s also true that the last two weeks before an election don’t necessarily change the race all that much.
The final two weeks usually don’t change much How much the national polling margin changed between 15 days before the presidential election and Election Day, since 1972 Leader in FiveThirtyEight national polling average Year 15 days before ELECTION Election Day Change 2016 Clinton +6.9 Clinton +3.8 3.1 2012 Romney +1.2 Obama +0.4 1.6 2008 Obama +6.8 Obama +7.1 0.3 2004 Bush +2.4 Bush +1.6 0.8 2000 Bush +2.7 Bush +3.5 0.8 1996 Clinton +14.9 Clinton +12.8 2.1 1992 Clinton +14.1 Clinton +7.1 7.0 1988 Bush +11.8 Bush +10.4 1.4 1984 Reagan +16.7 Reagan +18.0 1.3 1980 Reagan +2.3 Reagan +2.1 0.2 1976 Carter +2.0 Carter +0.8 1.2 1972 Nixon +25.5 Nixon +24.1 1.4 The averages listed are calculated retroactively based on FiveThirtyEight’s current polling average methodology.
So, let’s start there. How big are the stakes going into tonight?
nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): The stakes are kind of big but also kind of not?
On the one hand, it’s the last obvious opportunity for Trump to win voters over and for Biden to screw up. On the other hand, I think the writing is on the wall for Trump.
Granted, our presidential forecast still gives him a 13-in-100 chance of staging a comeback. But Trump just hasn’t shown any inclination to change his base-first strategy. He’s also been behind Biden for a while now in our forecast:
I guess I’m just not counting on seeing a different Trump tonight from the one who bombed in the first debate.
kaleigh (Kaleigh Rogers, tech and politics reporter): It’s rare for debates to have large, lasting impacts on the polls at the best of times, so it’s hard to imagine a scenario where this debate upends things in a dramatic way.
geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Given how rare live events are in the COVID-19 era, though, it’s not impossible that something could come out that reflects poorly on Biden. So, in that sense, it is a big deal.
At the same time, a national poll from The Economist/YouGov found this week that Biden led 52 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and that only 4 percent of those voters said they might change their minds. So, unless Trump can win over the incredibly small number of voters who genuinely are unsure — there are a lot fewer undecided voters this year — it’s going to be tough to win the election. And I’m not sure much can happen that’s going to shift public opinion sharply.
Over 25 million have already voted, but this is what pollsters expected: Nate Silver
kaleigh: Like Nathaniel, I’m curious to see whether Trump changes his strategy at all. Obviously, the muted mics will limit how much he can talk over Biden, but arguably, that tactic didn’t work so well. At least one poll found the majority of respondents disapproved of Trump’s behavior in the last debate, and even some Republicans said it made them support him less afterward.
nrakich: I’m not so sure the muted mics will make a big difference, Kaleigh. Maybe we won’t be able to hear Trump’s interruptions, but Biden will. And that could trip Biden up or stop him mid-answer.
sarah: Saying Trump bombed is a bit harsh, though, Nathaniel. After all, Clinton “won” the 2016 debates, and we saw how that turned out.
It’s easy to get obsessed with comparisons to 2016, and as we’ve written, you shouldn’t make too much of one election — after all, it’s a sample size of one. That said, there are some pretty big differences from 2016, yes?
kaleigh: Well, there’s the pandemic. That’s a pretty stark contrast. It has changed how we vote, how candidates campaign, how the economy is doing and so much more.
I wonder how different this election would be compared with 2016’s if COVID-19 hadn’t happened.
geoffrey.skelley: Well, as that Economist/YouGov survey and others have shown, this election has far fewer undecided or third-party voters, which makes it harder for the debates to move mountains.
In FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, Biden and Trump’s combined support adds up to about 94 percent. But at the same point in 2016, Trump and Clinton totaled just about 86 percent — a lot more voters were in play even in the late stages of the campaign. The same is true in state-level polls as well. For example, around 95 percent of voters in Wisconsin are backing Biden or Trump in our polling average, whereas 86 percent of voters there said they supported Trump or Clinton at this point in 2016.
nrakich: Not to mention, Biden’s lead is simply bigger than Clinton’s was at this stage of the 2016 campaign.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Biden led by 9.9 points in our national polling average; 13 days before Election Day in 2016, Clinton would have led by an average of 6.4 points, using the same methodology.
Something else that I think makes tonight’s debate less important: At least a quarter of voters have probably already cast their ballots. According to statistics collected by political scientist Michael McDonald, more than 41 million early or absentee votes have already been cast, or 30 percent of 2016 turnout (although 2020 turnout could be much higher if voter enthusiasm is any indication). So, even if something big happens tonight, a lot of people will have already voted.
geoffrey.skelley: That’s true, Nathaniel, but it could be that those early voters would have voted already anyway, as studies have shown that voters who vote early are more likely to be very partisan. Or, put another way, maybe those people weren’t going to change their minds anyway.
sarah: Those are all really good points — especially Kaleigh’s, about what this election would have looked like if COVID-19 hadn’t happened. What could we be missing, though? (And one big reason why comparisons to 2016 have their limitations!)
nrakich: Well, it’s always possible there will be a polling error.
So, if the debate budges the polls just enough — say, to where Biden has a 4-point national lead instead of a 10-point one — that makes it significantly more likely that Trump could win.
If Biden stays at +10 nationally, though, it would take a truly bonkers polling error to save Trump.
kaleigh: There are also more conventional differences. For example, this election has an incumbent candidate.
geoffrey.skelley: Speaking of polling error — and whether we could have a “Dewey Defeats Truman” on our hands — pollsters have tried to account for some of the things that led to problems with state polls in 2016. For example, some are weighting their samples by education, or even education and race, to avoid underrepresenting white voters without a college degree, voters who went so strongly for Trump in 2016.
So, some state polls could be better this time — although, of course, it’s impossible to predict the direction of a polling error before an election.
Polling bias is not very consistent from cycle to cycle Weighted-average statistical bias of polls in final 21 days of the election, among polls in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings database Cycle Governor U.S. Senate U.S. House Pres. General Combined 1998 R+5.7 R+4.8 R+1.5 R+4.2 1999-2000 D+0.6 R+2.9 D+0.9 R+2.6 R+1.8 2001-2002 D+3.0 D+1.4 D+1.3 D+2.2 2003-2004 R+4.2 D+1.7 D+2.5 D+1.1 D+0.9 2005-2006 D+0.3 R+1.3 D+0.2 R+0.1 2007-2008 D+0.5 D+0.8 D+1.0 D+1.1 D+1.0 2009-2010 R+0.7 D+1.7 D+0.6 2011-2012 R+1.3 R+3.3 R+2.6 R+2.5 R+2.6 2013-2014 D+2.3 D+2.5 D+3.7 D+2.7 2015-2016 D+3.3 D+2.8 D+3.7 D+3.1 D+3.0 2017-2019 R+0.9 D+0.1 R+0.3 R+0.3 All years D+0.3 D+0.1 D+0.7 D+0.2 D+0.3 Bias is calculated only for elections where the top two finishers were a Republican and Democrat. Therefore, it is not calculated for presidential primaries. Averages are weighted by the square root of the number of polls that a particular pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle. Polls that are banned by FiveThirtyEight because we know or suspect they faked data are excluded from the analysis.
sarah: OK, back to the debate. The rules have changed, as Kaleigh and Nathaniel were mentioning earlier, and now the moderator can mute the candidates if they speak out of turn. Here’s a snapshot of the six issues they are expected to stick to:
Fighting COVID-19 American families Race in America Climate change National security Leadership
What do we think might be covered by these issues? What plays to Biden’s strengths? And Trump’s?
geoffrey.skelley: Well, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that “fighting COVID-19” is not going to go well for Trump because Americans generally think he’s done a poor job handling the pandemic. That leaves Biden with a lot of material to work with.
nrakich: Yeah — according to our poll with Ipsos before the last debate, respondents who said COVID-19 was their top issue said 78 percent to 20 percent that Biden was better on handling COVID-19. And that was before Trump announced he had tested positive for COVID-19.
More people trust Biden to handle COVID-19
Share of people who named each issue as the most important one facing the U.S., and whether they think Trump or Biden would handle that issue better, according to a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll Who’s better on the issue… issue share TRUMP biden COVID-19 31.9% 20.1% – 78.0% – The economy 22.0 79.1 – 19.2 – Health care 9.6 27.9 – 71.8 – Racial inequality 7.4 6.0 – 90.9 – Climate change 4.9 4.7 – 95.3 – The Supreme Court 4.5 61.1 – 38.4 – Violent crime 4.2 80.6 – 18.1 – Economic inequality 2.9 14.3 – 85.7 – Immigration 2.8 61.3 – 38.7 – Abortion 2.8 93.5 – 6.5 – Other 1.7 55.3 – 41.8 – Education 1.5 44.7 – 44.1 – Gun policy 1.4 69.6 – 30.4 – Respondents who didn’t name a top issue are not shown. Data comes from polling done by Ipsos for FiveThirtyEight, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, a probability-based online panel that is recruited to be representative of the U.S. population. The poll was conducted Sept. 30 – Oct. 6 among a general population sample of adults, with 2,994 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points.
kaleigh: Trump has already been trying to positively spin his bout with the coronavirus — he’s been through it! He survived! But it will be pretty easy for Biden to point out that Trump didn’t take the virus seriously since he actually caught it. Not to mention, many Americans don’t think Trump took enough COVID-19 precautions, and there are signs that this hurt him electorally.
nrakich: I’m curious what the “American families” segment will touch on … does anyone have any inkling what that means?
geoffrey.skelley: 🤷♂ Perhaps it’s a roundabout way of saying the economy. Kitchen table issues. Of course, the economy touches almost every topic to some extent.
kaleigh: That’s my bet, Geoffrey, but it’s just vague enough to be uncertain.
sarah: My money is on the suburbs.
Or, at the very least, I can imagine suburban families being mentioned by both Biden and Trump. Trump won suburban voters in 2016, but he’s in real trouble here in 2020, as many white suburban women are continuing to move away from the Republican Party, as we saw in 2018.
But, yeah, given the economy ranked as voters’ first or second issue, according to our polling with Ipsos, I think that’s right, too, Geoffrey and Kaleigh.
The economy is one issue where Trump has always had an advantage.
nrakich: “Climate change” and “race in America” also seem like good issues for Biden. According to that Ipsos poll, more than 90 percent of Americans who said climate change or racial inequality was their top issue trust Biden more than Trump on each issue respectively.
On the other hand, among those for whom violent crime is their top issue, the majority trust Trump more than Biden, by about 81 percent to 18 percent. So Trump might try to reframe the segment on race in America into one about rioting and looting.
As for national security, I think it’s fair to say that segment will move the fewest votes. American elections generally aren’t decided on foreign-policy grounds.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: What full Democratic control would look like
kaleigh: Honestly, is there anything in that lineup that isn’t well-trodden territory at this point?
sarah: Yeah, it is hard to imagine that any of the issues discussed tonight will cover new ground in a way that sways voters. They do feel like well-trodden talking points at this stage, and the reality remains that Trump really does need the polls to tighten. Otherwise, his odds in our forecast will continue to fall. But, of course, even a 5 percent chance of something happening is something you should take seriously.
OK, the stakes are high. Trump needs some movement in the polls, and Biden isn’t a safe bet. What will you be watching for tonight, and in the last week of the election — knowing, of course, we’re all kind of flying blind?
nrakich: To me, the big question is, can Biden maintain his 10-point national lead after this debate? Or will tonight “reset” the race and bring the polling average down to Biden +7 or so, which is where it has been for most of the year?
Even if that were to happen, Biden would still have a good chance of winning, but the size of his margin could determine things like whether Democrats win the Senate or the number of state legislatures Democrats flip.
geoffrey.skelley: It’s true that incumbent presidents have had a habit of struggling in first debates, only to come back stronger in later ones. This was true of Barack Obama in 2012 and Ronald Reagan in 1984. So don’t count out a much better showing from Trump tonight.
CORRECTION (Oct. 22, 2020, 11:25 a.m.): This chat has been updated to better reflect the findings of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos survey. The share of respondents who trust one candidate over the other on certain issues was among only respondents who named that issue as the top concern facing the U.S. today, not among all respondents.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-22--What Would Democrats Do If They Controlled Congress And The White House?

There ’ s a decent chance that in January 2021 , Washington , D.C. will be a one-party town .
Democrats have a 72 percent chance of controlling the White House , House of Representatives and Senate , according to the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight ’ s 2020 forecast .
It would be the first time they ’ ve had a political “ trifecta ” since the first two years of the Obama administration .
But while that possibility has pushed some to dream big , Democratic operatives say the limitations of their party ’ s big-tent politics will likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the wishes of a Biden administration .
In the closing weeks of the presidential campaign , Biden has dodged questions about a once-fringe idea for expanding the number of seats on the Supreme Court , which has let imaginations run wild .
Could Democrats actually pursue structural changes on a level not seen in decades ?
Statehood for Washington , D.C. and Puerto Rico , an overhaul of the federal judiciary , a “ Green New Deal ” on the scale of what Franklin Roosevelt did during the Great Depression ?
The country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and there is some sense that politics has moved to a more Machiavellian plane ; if you are guaranteed power for only two years , leverage it to the hilt .
Yet even court-expansion advocates seem dubious about whether Biden and a Democratic Congress would actually come out of the gate by adding judges to the highest court .
The “ wish list , ” said Christopher Kang of Demand Justice , a liberal group that advocates for judicial reform , is led by “ expanding the Supreme Court by adding four seats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have now been stolen from a Democratic president.
” More likely , though , according to Kang , is that Democrats expand the broader federal judiciary and nominate judges with resumes outside the bounds of the typical white-shoe law firm pedigrees ( civil rights activists and academics fill the Demand Justice shortlist ) .
Kang suggested as many as 200 judgeships could be added , pointing out that the Judicial Conference ( the policymaking body for the federal courts ) has recommended the creation of 70 new judgeships to keep up with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will also be determined by their margin of victory in the Senate .
Sen. Joe Manchin will still be in the caucus , after all .
Ryan McConaghy , who worked for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer , was circumspect when it came to the subject of court expansion .
“ That is definitely the type of thing that would take a long time and require very careful consideration of where the votes are , ” he said .
McConaghy , like other Democrats I spoke to , expected that a Democratic Congress @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stimulus package .
He drew comparisons to Obama ’ s first term for what might happen next .
“ Democrats do not hold all three decision-making bodies often , so there ’ s going to be a real desire to have progress on a core priority .
I think there ’ s a good chance that climate plays the role in 2021 that the ACA played in 2009 and 2010.
” As Election Day and a potential transition bears down , what seemed most on the minds of the progressives I spoke to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be staffed .
There ’ s a worry on the left that Biden — known for hewing closely to wherever the party ’ s center is at any particular moment — won ’ t seize on a post-Trump moment to make big changes .
One progressive Democratic aide , who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of intraparty critiques during an election , told me that they were worried that recent history — the Obama administration during the financial crisis — would be a guide for how Biden might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the time about how Barack Obama was reading “ Team of Rivals , ” and he picked Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State , but you look at what they did with their economic team , and it was all the Citi Group-allied , Wall Street-sympathetic cabal.
” Back in January 2019 , economist Paul Krugman , who lobbied the Obama administration unsuccessfully for a bigger stimulus package following the economic collapse of 2008 , joked to me that “ the financial industry has so much clout and so much influence , not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ re smart people , they ’ re persuasive , they have great tailors.
” There ’ s a sense that Biden could choose gatekeepers who aren ’ t open to the sorts of broad changes that the Democratic primaries put in front of voters .
Under particular scrutiny are Biden ’ s choices for Chief of Staff : Ron Klain , Steve Ricchetti and Bruce Reed have all served as Biden ’ s chief of staff at various points in time .
Progressives have carved out a favorite in Klain , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said that if Biden chose Ricchetti or Reed , “ It ’ s a major tone-setter.
” In areas like government antitrust action — the Department of Justice filed suit against Google this week for antitrust violations — the aide said they weren ’ t optimistic about a Biden administration .
“ The odds that he picks people that are allied with Amazon , Google , and Facebook to run DOJ antitrust , to run the FTC — they ’ re pretty high , ” they said .
“ I ’ m pessimistic.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Data For Progress , seemed hesitant to get too optimistic .
“ I think the big constraint for the Obama administration and not doing progressive stuff was first the deficit fearmongering , ” he said .
“ We ’ re going to spend a lot of time making the case that Democrats shouldn ’ t allow themselves to sort of be hampered by the deficit.
” Saikat Chakrabarti , Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ’ s former chief of staff , also brought up what he saw as the misguided thinking of establishment Democrats — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matters like the deficit .
“ I think he ’ s probably got some ideological hang-ups around how debt works and how deficits work and how taxes work , ” Chakrabarti said .
“ He just needs people around him who can shake him free of those misconceptions.
” McConaghy thinks Democrats are also likely to push for the kind of reforms outlined in H.R .
1 , a bill passed by the House in 2019 that proposed automatic voter registration , restoration of provisions in the Voting Rights Act and offered ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ D.C a state .
That last item is one progressives are sure to push for .
McElwee called granting D.C. statehood “ morally the right thing to do.
” But McConaghy said it could be tough to make a reality .
“ That type of thing exists in the outer ring of what the main focus will be , ” he said , pointing out that the nature of the Democratic caucus is “ ideologically wide and geographically diverse.
” Some rural state Democrats would likely be against D.C. statehood , he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would dilute the power of their vote .
The big-tent nature of the Democratic Party is already being tested , as the Biden campaign floated the idea this week that certain Republicans could find a place in the former vice president ’ s cabinet .
The news was met with opprobrium from parts of the Democratic ecosystem .
“ People Biden is not vetting : Anyone who endorsed Bernie Sanders .
”

There’s a decent chance that in January 2021, Washington, D.C. will be a one-party town.
Democrats have a 72 percent chance of controlling the White House, House of Representatives and Senate, according to the Deluxe version of FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 forecast. It would be the first time they’ve had a political “trifecta” since the first two years of the Obama administration. But while that possibility has pushed some to dream big, Democratic operatives say the limitations of their party’s big-tent politics will likely determine what gets done as much as the wishes of a Biden administration.
Fewer undecided voters is good news for Biden in the Midwest| FiveThirtyEight
In the closing weeks of the presidential campaign, Biden has dodged questions about a once-fringe idea for expanding the number of seats on the Supreme Court, which has let imaginations run wild. Could Democrats actually pursue structural changes on a level not seen in decades? Statehood for Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico, an overhaul of the federal judiciary, a “Green New Deal” on the scale of what Franklin Roosevelt did during the Great Depression? The country is brutally divided by partisan affiliation, and there is some sense that politics has moved to a more Machiavellian plane; if you are guaranteed power for only two years, leverage it to the hilt.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
Yet even court-expansion advocates seem dubious about whether Biden and a Democratic Congress would actually come out of the gate by adding judges to the highest court. The “wish list,” said Christopher Kang of Demand Justice, a liberal group that advocates for judicial reform, is led by “expanding the Supreme Court by adding four seats to offset the two seats that would have now been stolen from a Democratic president.” More likely, though, according to Kang, is that Democrats expand the broader federal judiciary and nominate judges with resumes outside the bounds of the typical white-shoe law firm pedigrees (civil rights activists and academics fill the Demand Justice shortlist). Kang suggested as many as 200 judgeships could be added, pointing out that the Judicial Conference (the policymaking body for the federal courts) has recommended the creation of 70 new judgeships to keep up with the pace of caseloads.
Democrats’ agenda will also be determined by their margin of victory in the Senate. Sen. Joe Manchin will still be in the caucus, after all. Ryan McConaghy, who worked for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, was circumspect when it came to the subject of court expansion. “That is definitely the type of thing that would take a long time and require very careful consideration of where the votes are,” he said. McConaghy, like other Democrats I spoke to, expected that a Democratic Congress’s first priority would be a stimulus package. He drew comparisons to Obama’s first term for what might happen next. “Democrats do not hold all three decision-making bodies often, so there’s going to be a real desire to have progress on a core priority. I think there’s a good chance that climate plays the role in 2021 that the ACA played in 2009 and 2010.”
As Election Day and a potential transition bears down, what seemed most on the minds of the progressives I spoke to is how a Biden White House would be staffed. There’s a worry on the left that Biden — known for hewing closely to wherever the party’s center is at any particular moment — won’t seize on a post-Trump moment to make big changes. One progressive Democratic aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of intraparty critiques during an election, told me that they were worried that recent history — the Obama administration during the financial crisis — would be a guide for how Biden might act. “Everyone was talking at the time about how Barack Obama was reading “Team of Rivals,” and he picked Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State, but you look at what they did with their economic team, and it was all the Citi Group-allied, Wall Street-sympathetic cabal.” Back in January 2019, economist Paul Krugman, who lobbied the Obama administration unsuccessfully for a bigger stimulus package following the economic collapse of 2008, joked to me that “the financial industry has so much clout and so much influence, not just because of the money but because they’re smart people, they’re persuasive, they have great tailors.” There’s a sense that Biden could choose gatekeepers who aren’t open to the sorts of broad changes that the Democratic primaries put in front of voters.
Under particular scrutiny are Biden’s choices for Chief of Staff: Ron Klain, Steve Ricchetti and Bruce Reed have all served as Biden’s chief of staff at various points in time. Progressives have carved out a favorite in Klain, and the Democratic aide I spoke to said that if Biden chose Ricchetti or Reed, “It’s a major tone-setter.” In areas like government antitrust action — the Department of Justice filed suit against Google this week for antitrust violations — the aide said they weren’t optimistic about a Biden administration. “The odds that he picks people that are allied with Amazon, Google, and Facebook to run DOJ antitrust, to run the FTC — they’re pretty high,” they said. “I’m pessimistic.”
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: What full Democratic control would look like
Sean McElwee, executive director of Data For Progress, seemed hesitant to get too optimistic. “I think the big constraint for the Obama administration and not doing progressive stuff was first the deficit fearmongering,” he said. “We’re going to spend a lot of time making the case that Democrats shouldn’t allow themselves to sort of be hampered by the deficit.”
Saikat Chakrabarti, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s former chief of staff, also brought up what he saw as the misguided thinking of establishment Democrats — Biden foremost among them — on economic matters like the deficit. “I think he’s probably got some ideological hang-ups around how debt works and how deficits work and how taxes work,” Chakrabarti said. “He just needs people around him who can shake him free of those misconceptions.”
McConaghy thinks Democrats are also likely to push for the kind of reforms outlined in H.R. 1, a bill passed by the House in 2019 that proposed automatic voter registration, restoration of provisions in the Voting Rights Act and offered (non-binding) support for making Washington, D.C a state. That last item is one progressives are sure to push for. McElwee called granting D.C. statehood “morally the right thing to do.” But McConaghy said it could be tough to make a reality. “That type of thing exists in the outer ring of what the main focus will be,” he said, pointing out that the nature of the Democratic caucus is “ideologically wide and geographically diverse.” Some rural state Democrats would likely be against D.C. statehood, he said, because of a perception that it would dilute the power of their vote.
The big-tent nature of the Democratic Party is already being tested, as the Biden campaign floated the idea this week that certain Republicans could find a place in the former vice president’s cabinet.
The news was met with opprobrium from parts of the Democratic ecosystem.
“People Biden is vetting: John Kasich, Meg Whitman, Jeff Flake, Charlie Baker, Charlie Dent,” one activist tweeted.
“People Biden is not vetting: Anyone who endorsed Bernie Sanders.”


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-23--Presidential Debate, Trump vs. Biden: Live Updates

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fivethirtyeight--2020-10-23--What To Watch For During The Final Presidential Debate

The FiveThirtyEight politics crew discusses how the last presidential debate might affect the election .
Is there still time to @ @ @ @ @ voters already made up their minds ?

What To Watch For During The Final Presidential Debate
The FiveThirtyEight politics crew discusses how the last presidential debate might affect the election. Is there still time to shift opinions, or have voters already made up their minds?


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-22--Will We Know The Winner On Election Night? Pay Attention To These States.

In this forecast update , Galen Druke explores whether we ’ ll have a good idea of who won on @ @ @ @ @ do we expect results from ?
And what could those results mean for who will @ @ @ @

Will We Know The Winner On Election Night? Pay Attention To These States.
In this forecast update, Galen Druke explores whether we’ll have a good idea of who won on election night. Which states do we expect results from? And what could those results mean for who will win the presidency?


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-22--Where The Presidential Race Stands Before The Last Debate

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight ’ s Election Update for Thursday , Oct. 22 , 2020 !
As President Trump and Joe Biden prepare to take the stage tonight for the final presidential debate , Trump has just a 12 in 100 chance of winning the presidency , while Biden has an 88 in 100 chance , according to our presidential forecast .
And according to national polls , Biden leads Trump by an average of 9.9 percentage points .
How voting is going so far in 2020 | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast This is lower than Biden ’ s peak 10.7-point lead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than his 7.1-point lead over Trump before their first debate on Sept. 29 .
In the last few days , national polls have tightened a bit , something our forecast was anticipating in the home stretch .
But , to be clear , Biden is still well ahead overall in our forecast .
But of course , the national popular vote doesn ’ t pick the president — states do , via the Electoral College .
And we got a flurry of state polls Wednesday that were still good for Biden .
Take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chance of deciding the election , according to our forecast ’ s tipping-point odds .
Wednesday , no fewer than four high-quality polls of Pennsylvania were released .
Biden garnered 50 percent support and Trump garnered 45 percent in a Fox News poll ; Biden led by 6 points in a Suffolk University poll ; Biden led by 8 points in a Quinnipiac University poll ; and CNN/SSRS even put Biden ahead by 10 points among likely voters .
Though these ran the gamut from being OK to great polls for Biden , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with other polls we ’ ve seen this month — in other words , Biden has a solid , though not insurmountable , lead in Pennsylvania .
Over 25 million have already voted , but this is what pollsters expected : Nate Silver This is , however , still an improvement from where he stood before the first debate , when the winner of Pennsylvania was more uncertain .
Since Sept. 29 , Biden ’ s odds of winning Pennsylvania have increased from 79 in 100 to 87 in 100 .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another important potential tipping point state ; Trump has a less than 1 percent chance of winning the White House without it .
Biden ’ s average lead in Florida polls is currently 3.8 points — not much lower than Biden ’ s October high of 4.5 points , achieved for a few days last week .
And Wednesday , Reuters/Ipsos , CNN/SSRS and Civiqs/Daily Kos all released surveys of Florida that gave Biden either a 4- or 5-point lead among likely voters .
These numbers are a bit better for Biden than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when he led by an average of 2 points or less in the Sunshine State .
That early-October increase brought his chances of winning Florida from about 3 in 5 to around 7 in 10 , but that number has barely changed in the last couple weeks .
What ’ s more , states like Iowa , Ohio and Georgia all now have almost exactly 50-50 odds in our forecast .
Take the several Iowa polls we got Wednesday : Emerson College found Trump and Biden tied at 48 percent ; Siena College/The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 46 percent and Trump at 43 percent ; and depending on the turnout model used , Monmouth University gave Biden either a 3- or 5-point lead among likely voters .
With these polls , Biden actually improved his position in our Iowa polling average .
He went from a 0.4-point lead on Monday to a 1.1-point lead currently — the opposite of the tightening we ’ ve seen elsewhere .
And although our forecast doesn ’ t think Biden is favored to win Iowa , he does now have a 48 in 100 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been all year .
And that ’ s bad news for Republicans , since in worlds where Biden carries Iowa , he wins the presidency more than 99 percent of the time .
Meanwhile , in Georgia , two pollsters — Siena College/The New York Times Upshot and Morning Consult — both found Trump and Biden in a dead heat in Georgia this week .
And appropriately enough , our forecast now finds that both Trump and Biden have exactly a 50 in 100 shot of carrying the Peach State .
According to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent support and Trump 47 percent support in Texas , another fairly red state that is a must-win for Trump .
And a Quinnipiac University poll of the Lone Star State released Wednesday found a tied race , although Quinnipiac has tended to have good results for Biden this year relative to other pollsters .
Accordingly , our forecast is not yet convinced that Texas is a toss-up , although it ’ s not safely red by any means .
Trump has just a 64 in 100 chance of winning .
I could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ picture .
Biden is still ahead in all the states he needs in order to win — and is a real threat to win some that would just be icing on the cake for him .
Trump still has a path to victory , but he needs to turn things around in all of these states fast — and the debate could be his last opportunity to do so .

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s Election Update for Thursday, Oct. 22, 2020! As President Trump and Joe Biden prepare to take the stage tonight for the final presidential debate, Trump has just a 12 in 100 chance of winning the presidency, while Biden has an 88 in 100 chance, according to our presidential forecast. And according to national polls, Biden leads Trump by an average of 9.9 percentage points.
How voting is going so far in 2020 | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
This is lower than Biden’s peak 10.7-point lead as of Monday, but still higher than his 7.1-point lead over Trump before their first debate on Sept. 29. In the last few days, national polls have tightened a bit, something our forecast was anticipating in the home stretch. But, to be clear, Biden is still well ahead overall in our forecast.
But of course, the national popular vote doesn’t pick the president — states do, via the Electoral College. And we got a flurry of state polls Wednesday that were still good for Biden. Take Pennsylvania, the state with the highest chance of deciding the election, according to our forecast’s tipping-point odds. Wednesday, no fewer than four high-quality polls of Pennsylvania were released. Biden garnered 50 percent support and Trump garnered 45 percent in a Fox News poll; Biden led by 6 points in a Suffolk University poll; Biden led by 8 points in a Quinnipiac University poll; and CNN/SSRS even put Biden ahead by 10 points among likely voters. Though these ran the gamut from being OK to great polls for Biden, together they were pretty well in line with other polls we’ve seen this month — in other words, Biden has a solid, though not insurmountable, lead in Pennsylvania.
Over 25 million have already voted, but this is what pollsters expected: Nate Silver
This is, however, still an improvement from where he stood before the first debate, when the winner of Pennsylvania was more uncertain. Since Sept. 29, Biden’s odds of winning Pennsylvania have increased from 79 in 100 to 87 in 100.
It’s a similar story in Florida, another important potential tipping point state; Trump has a less than 1 percent chance of winning the White House without it. Biden’s average lead in Florida polls is currently 3.8 points — not much lower than Biden’s October high of 4.5 points, achieved for a few days last week. And Wednesday, Reuters/Ipsos, CNN/SSRS and Civiqs/Daily Kos all released surveys of Florida that gave Biden either a 4- or 5-point lead among likely voters. These numbers are a bit better for Biden than they were before the last debate, when he led by an average of 2 points or less in the Sunshine State. That early-October increase brought his chances of winning Florida from about 3 in 5 to around 7 in 10, but that number has barely changed in the last couple weeks.
What’s more, states like Iowa, Ohio and Georgia all now have almost exactly 50-50 odds in our forecast. Take the several Iowa polls we got Wednesday: Emerson College found Trump and Biden tied at 48 percent; Siena College/The New York Times Upshot put Biden at 46 percent and Trump at 43 percent; and depending on the turnout model used, Monmouth University gave Biden either a 3- or 5-point lead among likely voters. With these polls, Biden actually improved his position in our Iowa polling average. He went from a 0.4-point lead on Monday to a 1.1-point lead currently — the opposite of the tightening we’ve seen elsewhere. And although our forecast doesn’t think Biden is favored to win Iowa, he does now have a 48 in 100 shot — the highest his odds have been all year. And that’s bad news for Republicans, since in worlds where Biden carries Iowa, he wins the presidency more than 99 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, in Georgia, two pollsters — Siena College/The New York Times Upshot and Morning Consult — both found Trump and Biden in a dead heat in Georgia this week. And appropriately enough, our forecast now finds that both Trump and Biden have exactly a 50 in 100 shot of carrying the Peach State.
According to Morning Consult, Biden also garnered 48 percent support and Trump 47 percent support in Texas, another fairly red state that is a must-win for Trump. And a Quinnipiac University poll of the Lone Star State released Wednesday found a tied race, although Quinnipiac has tended to have good results for Biden this year relative to other pollsters. Accordingly, our forecast is not yet convinced that Texas is a toss-up, although it’s not safely red by any means. Trump has just a 64 in 100 chance of winning.
I could go on, but you get the picture. Biden is still ahead in all the states he needs in order to win — and is a real threat to win some that would just be icing on the cake for him. Trump still has a path to victory, but he needs to turn things around in all of these states fast — and the debate could be his last opportunity to do so.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-23--Politics Podcast: The Last Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Has Begun

Now that the last presidential debate is over , there are no major set pieces remaining in the 2020 campaign @ @ @ @ @ the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew reviews what happened in the debate and considers @ @ @ @ @ campaign could hold in store .

Politics Podcast: The Last Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Has Begun
Now that the last presidential debate is over, there are no major set pieces remaining in the 2020 campaign. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reviews what happened in the debate and considers what the rest of the campaign could hold in store.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-23--The Issues That Divide People Within Each Party

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
There is no shortage of issues that divide Democrats and Republicans — the presidential election , the Supreme Court confirmation vote , etc .
But let ’ s spend a little time today looking at issues that split voters within the two parties .
These issues are likely to come to the foreground after the election is over .
If Republicans lose races for the presidency , U.S. Senate and some state legislatures — as seems likely right now — there will be a debate within the GOP about how to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ newly empowered Democrats would have to figure out which policies they want to advance first .
On the other hand , if Democrats lose the presidential election ( and it ’ s clear that the election was conducted fairly ) , we are likely to see a Super Bowl of recriminations , told-ya-so essays and infighting over how the party lost an election against such an unpopular president .
President Trump and a victorious Republican Party would have to set a second-term agenda — a task complicated enough that the party opted against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year ’ s conventions .
So which issues divide Democrats , and which ones divide Republicans ?
Two polls released this week , one conducted by the New York Times and Siena College and the other by PRRI , a nonpartisan organization that focuses on the intersection of religion , culture and public policy , provide some fresh answers .
• A national mandate for a coronavirus vaccine : 47 percent of Democrats supported a national mandate to take a COVID-19 vaccine if one is approved by the Food and Drug Administration , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters , which was conducted Oct. 15 to 18 .
This is an unpopular idea with the broader American public — only 18 percent of Republicans voters and 32 percent of likely voters overall supported such a mandate , according to the poll .
• A more liberal presidential nominee : About 45 percent of adults who identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents said that they had initially favored Sen. Bernie Sanders ( 31 percent ) or Sen. Elizabeth Warren ( 14 percent ) during the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which was conducted Sept. 9-22 .
Twenty-eight percent said they had preferred Joe Biden , 10 percent said former South Bend , Indiana , Mayor Pete Buttigieg , 6 percent said former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg , 4 percent said Sen. Amy Klobuchar , 2 percent said Tom Steyer , and 4 percent said someone else .
( The poll did not ask respondents about candidates who dropped out earlier in the primary process , such as Sen. Kamala Harris . )
Democratic voters are firmly behind Biden in his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sizeable bloc in the party who favored more liberal candidates , and divisions between this more liberal bloc and the party ’ s more centrist bloc are likely to emerge if Democrats have total control of Washington next year — or even if Democrats control the presidency and the House .
• Reparations : Exactly half of Democrats ( 50 percent ) said they supported economically compensating African Americans who are the descendants of enslaved people , and almost exactly half ( 49 percent ) opposed this idea , according to PRRI @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more broadly — only 27 percent of Americans , including 5 percent of Republicans , supported reparations .
• Religion : 46 percent of Democrats said they felt that religion causes more problems in society than it solves , while 53 percent of Democrats disagreed with that sentiment .
Only 38 percent of Americans overall said that religion creates more problems than it solves , compared to 61 percent who disagreed with that sentiment , including 79 percent of Republicans .
• Trump ’ s speech and behavior : 46 percent of Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ speech and behavior was “ consistent with previous presidents , ” compared to 53 percent who disagreed , per PRRI .
That was a popular sentiment with the broader public — 68 percent of American adults and 84 percent of Democrats wished Trump acted more like his predecessors .
• A public health insurance option : 45 percent of Republicans supported a government-operated health insurance plan that all Americans could enroll in , while 47 percent opposed this idea , according to the New York Times/Siena poll .
This was also a popular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , including 87 percent of Democrats , supported a public option .
• State and local government policies to limit the spread of COVID-19 , such as requirements to wear masks : 56 percent of Republicans said state and local governments are taking “ reasonable steps to protect people , ” while 43 percent said those moves are “ unreasonable attempts to control people , ” per PRRI .
These policies were broadly popular — 76 percent of Americans , including 94 percent of Democrats , said state and local governments were taking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Deal : 46 percent of Republicans opposed a “ $ 2 trillion plan to increase the use of renewable energy and build energy-efficient infrastructure , ” and 45 percent of Republicans supported it , according to the New York Times/Siena survey .
The question referred neither to Biden nor to the “ Green New Deal.
” ( The former vice president has a $ 2 trillion proposal that focuses on both improving America ’ s infrastructure and reducing the nation ’ s use of fossil fuels .
It ’ s basically a shrunken-down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) It ’ s quite possible that support for this proposal would be much lower among Republicans if the question cast it as , say , “ Joe Biden ’ s version of the Green New Deal.
” But it ’ s interesting that the concept of a more modest Green New Deal is not that unpopular with Republicans .
Sixty-six percent of Americans , including 89 percent of Democrats , supported this idea .
• Getting a COVID-19 vaccine : 54 percent of Republicans said they would “ probably ” or “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if it were approved by the FDA , and 40 percent said they “ probably ” or “ definitely ” would not get it , per the New York Times/Siena survey .
Sixty-one percent of Americans , including 69 percent of Democrats , said they would “ probably ” or “ definitely ” get the vaccine .
• The levels of discrimination Black and Hispanic Americans face : About half of Republicans ( 52 percent ) said that Black Americans face “ a lot ” of discrimation , and about half ( 47 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t , per PRRI .
Forty-five percent of Republicans agreed that Hispanic Americans face a lot of discrimation , compared to 53 percent who disagreed .
Most Americans overall ( 75 percent ) and Democrats ( 92 percent ) said that Black Americans face a lot of discrimination .
The numbers were similar but slightly lower for discrimination against Hispanic Americans : 69 percent of Americans and 86 percent of Democrats said that they face a lot of discrimination .
• Immigration policy : Republicans are about equally split on allowing the separation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent supported , 53 percent opposed ) , protecting people who were brought to the U.S. as children but are not citizens from deportation ( 45 percent supported , 54 percent opposed ) and creating a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants ( 48 percent supported such a pathway , 38 percent said they should be deported , and 14 percent said they should be allowed to become legal residents but not become citizens ) .
A clear majority of Americans overall opposed separating families at the border ( 76 percent ) and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent ) , as well as granting legal resident status to immigrants who would benefit from either the DREAM Act or DACA , commonly referred to as “ Dreamers ” ( 66 percent ) .
• A universal basic income : 52 percent of Republicans supported guaranteeing all Americans a minimum income , compared to 48 percent who opposed such an idea , per PRRI .
Seventy percent of Americans overall , including 88 percent of Democrats , supported a UBI .
You may have noticed both that there are more dividing issues @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and that there are a lot of ideas that split the Republican Party but are fairly popular among Americans .
Part of that may be the nature of these surveys — a different set of questions might have found more splits among Democrats .
But there ’ s an important explanation that gets at the parties ’ divergent strategies .
Pollsters usually ask about ideas that are part of the current political discourse , which usually means that major politicians or activists are talking about them , but that they aren ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nancy Pelosi , in particular , tend to campaign on and try to pass ideas that they know are fairly popular with the public , so it ’ s not surprising that there are lots of potential Biden administration proposals — such as a public health insurance option — that basically all Democratic voters and even some Republican voters are on board with .
This Democratic approach makes sense electorally — it helps explain why the party is likely to win the popular vote in 2020 and has done so in most recent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Leader Mitch McConnell and Trump are more willing than Biden and Pelosi to push controversial policies ( such as separating children from their families at the U.S.-Mexico border ) and oppose popular ones ( the protection from deportation for “ Dreamers ” that was enacted under President Obama ) .
So that explains why a lot of fairly popular ideas aren ’ t already law .
This approach is more electorally risky than the Democratic one but sometimes pays dividends in terms of policy : Trump has limited immigration much more than he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and executed ideas popular with the broader American public .
• 62 percent of likely voters believe that government-imposed limits on the number of people who can attend in-person gatherings — including at churches — amid the coronavirus outbreak are constitutional , according to a recent poll from the left-leaning Data for Progress ; 29 percent said that subjecting churches to those limits impinges on religious liberties .
• 57 percent of likely voters think the Affordable Care Act should be upheld by the Supreme Court even though the law ’ s mandate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effectively eliminated , according to that same survey .
About 1 in 3 likely voters ( 32 percent ) , including 53 percent of Republicans , think the ACA should be scrapped in light of the mandate change .
• 77 percent of registered voters said that the outcome of this year ’ s presidential election matters to them more than it has previous presidential elections , according to a September Gallup poll .
That 77 percent is higher than for any previous presidential election going back to 1996 in Gallup ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 74 percent in 2008 . )
In this year ’ s survey , 85 percent of Democrats , 79 percent of Republicans and 69 percent of independents said that this election matters more than previous ones .
• 69 percent of likely voters , including 54 percent of Republicans , think that it will take more than a year for the U.S. economy to recover from the COVID-19 outbreak , according to a recent poll conducted by Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research on behalf of the Financial Times and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a third ( 31 percent ) of Americans think the economy will recover within a year .
• The same survey found that people are almost evenly split on whether Trump ’ s policies have helped the economy : 44 percent of people said his policies helped , compared to 46 who said they had hurt the economy .
• 53 percent of adults ages 18-30 want Biden to win the election , 23 percent favor Trump , and a large bloc ( 17 percent ) said they weren ’ t sure , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A majority ( 57 percent ) of those surveyed said that they don ’ t feel represented by either party , compared to 28 percent who disagreed with that sentiment .
These young voters are supportive of free COVID-19 testing for all Americans ( 85 percent ) , Medicare for All ( 68 percent ) and the Black Lives Matter movement ( 64 percent ) .
They are not as supportive of the Green New Deal ( 41 percent ) , limiting abortions after the first trimester ( 35 percent ) and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ border ( 26 percent ) .
• 61 percent of U.S. adults said they know someone who has tested positive for COVID-19 , according to an Axios/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 16-19 , while only 38 percent said they did not .
This is a big jump from early March , when only 4 percent of Americans said they knew someone who had tested positive for the virus , and even mid-July , when 41 percent knew someone who ’ d tested positive .
More than 1 in 5 Americans ( 22 percent ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the virus , while 78 percent said they do not .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 42.5 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president , while 52.8 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -11.2 points ) .
At this time last week , 42.7 percent approved and 54.3 percent disapproved ( for a net approval rating of -11.6 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 42.7 percent and a disapproval rating of 53.0 percent , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 7.4 percentage points ( 49.4 percent to 42.0 percent ) .
A week ago , Democrats led Republicans by 7 points ( 48.9 percent to 41.9 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters preferred Democrats by 6.3 points ( 48.7 percent to 42.3 percent ) .
Check out all the polls we ’ ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections .

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
There is no shortage of issues that divide Democrats and Republicans — the presidential election, the Supreme Court confirmation vote, etc. But let’s spend a little time today looking at issues that split voters within the two parties.
These issues are likely to come to the foreground after the election is over. If Republicans lose races for the presidency, U.S. Senate and some state legislatures — as seems likely right now — there will be a debate within the GOP about how to get back in power. Meanwhile, newly empowered Democrats would have to figure out which policies they want to advance first. On the other hand, if Democrats lose the presidential election (and it’s clear that the election was conducted fairly), we are likely to see a Super Bowl of recriminations, told-ya-so essays and infighting over how the party lost an election against such an unpopular president. President Trump and a victorious Republican Party would have to set a second-term agenda — a task complicated enough that the party opted against releasing an updated platform ahead of this year’s conventions.
Fewer undecided voters is good news for Biden in the Midwest| FiveThirtyEight
So which issues divide Democrats, and which ones divide Republicans? Two polls released this week, one conducted by the New York Times and Siena College and the other by PRRI, a nonpartisan organization that focuses on the intersection of religion, culture and public policy, provide some fresh answers.
[Live Updates: We’re Tracking The Vote And Voting Problems]
Issues that divide Democrats
A national mandate for a coronavirus vaccine: 47 percent of Democrats supported a national mandate to take a COVID-19 vaccine if one is approved by the Food and Drug Administration, and 48 percent opposed it, per the New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters, which was conducted Oct. 15 to 18. This is an unpopular idea with the broader American public — only 18 percent of Republicans voters and 32 percent of likely voters overall supported such a mandate, according to the poll.
47 percent of Democrats supported a national mandate to take a COVID-19 vaccine if one is approved by the Food and Drug Administration, and 48 percent opposed it, per the New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters, which was conducted Oct. 15 to 18. This is an unpopular idea with the broader American public — only 18 percent of Republicans voters and 32 percent of likely voters overall supported such a mandate, according to the poll. A more liberal presidential nominee: About 45 percent of adults who identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents said that they had initially favored Sen. Bernie Sanders (31 percent) or Sen. Elizabeth Warren (14 percent) during the Democratic primary, per the PRRI survey, which was conducted Sept. 9-22. Twenty-eight percent said they had preferred Joe Biden, 10 percent said former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 6 percent said former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, 4 percent said Sen. Amy Klobuchar, 2 percent said Tom Steyer, and 4 percent said someone else. (The poll did not ask respondents about candidates who dropped out earlier in the primary process, such as Sen. Kamala Harris.)
Democratic voters are firmly behind Biden in his race against Trump. But there is a sizeable bloc in the party who favored more liberal candidates, and divisions between this more liberal bloc and the party’s more centrist bloc are likely to emerge if Democrats have total control of Washington next year — or even if Democrats control the presidency and the House.
About 45 percent of adults who identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents said that they had initially favored Sen. Bernie Sanders (31 percent) or Sen. Elizabeth Warren (14 percent) during the Democratic primary, per the PRRI survey, which was conducted Sept. 9-22. Twenty-eight percent said they had preferred Joe Biden, 10 percent said former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 6 percent said former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, 4 percent said Sen. Amy Klobuchar, 2 percent said Tom Steyer, and 4 percent said someone else. (The poll did not ask respondents about candidates who dropped out earlier in the primary process, such as Sen. Kamala Harris.) Democratic voters are firmly behind Biden in his race against Trump. But there is a sizeable bloc in the party who favored more liberal candidates, and divisions between this more liberal bloc and the party’s more centrist bloc are likely to emerge if Democrats have total control of Washington next year — or even if Democrats control the presidency and the House. Reparations: Exactly half of Democrats (50 percent) said they supported economically compensating African Americans who are the descendants of enslaved people, and almost exactly half (49 percent) opposed this idea, according to PRRI. This is an unpopular idea, more broadly — only 27 percent of Americans, including 5 percent of Republicans, supported reparations.
Exactly half of Democrats (50 percent) said they supported economically compensating African Americans who are the descendants of enslaved people, and almost exactly half (49 percent) opposed this idea, according to PRRI. This is an unpopular idea, more broadly — only 27 percent of Americans, including 5 percent of Republicans, supported reparations. Religion: 46 percent of Democrats said they felt that religion causes more problems in society than it solves, while 53 percent of Democrats disagreed with that sentiment. Only 38 percent of Americans overall said that religion creates more problems than it solves, compared to 61 percent who disagreed with that sentiment, including 79 percent of Republicans.
Issues that divide Republicans
Trump’s speech and behavior: 46 percent of Republicans said they wished that Trump’s speech and behavior was “consistent with previous presidents,” compared to 53 percent who disagreed, per PRRI. That was a popular sentiment with the broader public — 68 percent of American adults and 84 percent of Democrats wished Trump acted more like his predecessors.
46 percent of Republicans said they wished that Trump’s speech and behavior was “consistent with previous presidents,” compared to 53 percent who disagreed, per PRRI. That was a popular sentiment with the broader public — 68 percent of American adults and 84 percent of Democrats wished Trump acted more like his predecessors. A public health insurance option : 45 percent of Republicans supported a government-operated health insurance plan that all Americans could enroll in, while 47 percent opposed this idea, according to the New York Times/Siena poll. This was also a popular idea overall — 67 percent of Americans, including 87 percent of Democrats, supported a public option.
: 45 percent of Republicans supported a government-operated health insurance plan that all Americans could enroll in, while 47 percent opposed this idea, according to the New York Times/Siena poll. This was also a popular idea overall — 67 percent of Americans, including 87 percent of Democrats, supported a public option. State and local government policies to limit the spread of COVID-19, such as requirements to wear masks : 56 percent of Republicans said state and local governments are taking “reasonable steps to protect people,” while 43 percent said those moves are “unreasonable attempts to control people,” per PRRI. These policies were broadly popular — 76 percent of Americans, including 94 percent of Democrats, said state and local governments were taking reasonable steps.
: 56 percent of Republicans said state and local governments are taking “reasonable steps to protect people,” while 43 percent said those moves are “unreasonable attempts to control people,” per PRRI. These policies were broadly popular — 76 percent of Americans, including 94 percent of Democrats, said state and local governments were taking reasonable steps. A mini-Green New Deal: 46 percent of Republicans opposed a “$2 trillion plan to increase the use of renewable energy and build energy-efficient infrastructure,” and 45 percent of Republicans supported it, according to the New York Times/Siena survey. The question referred neither to Biden nor to the “Green New Deal.” (The former vice president has a $2 trillion proposal that focuses on both improving America’s infrastructure and reducing the nation’s use of fossil fuels. It’s basically a shrunken-down version of the Green New Deal.) It’s quite possible that support for this proposal would be much lower among Republicans if the question cast it as, say, “Joe Biden’s version of the Green New Deal.” But it’s interesting that the concept of a more modest Green New Deal is not that unpopular with Republicans. Sixty-six percent of Americans, including 89 percent of Democrats, supported this idea.
46 percent of Republicans opposed a “$2 trillion plan to increase the use of renewable energy and build energy-efficient infrastructure,” and 45 percent of Republicans supported it, according to the New York Times/Siena survey. The question referred neither to Biden nor to the “Green New Deal.” (The former vice president has a $2 trillion proposal that focuses on both improving America’s infrastructure and reducing the nation’s use of fossil fuels. It’s basically a shrunken-down version of the Green New Deal.) It’s quite possible that support for this proposal would be much lower among Republicans if the question cast it as, say, “Joe Biden’s version of the Green New Deal.” But it’s interesting that the of a more modest Green New Deal is not that unpopular with Republicans. Sixty-six percent of Americans, including 89 percent of Democrats, supported this idea. Getting a COVID-19 vaccine: 54 percent of Republicans said they would “probably” or “definitely” get a vaccine for COVID-19 if it were approved by the FDA, and 40 percent said they “probably” or “definitely” would not get it, per the New York Times/Siena survey. Sixty-one percent of Americans, including 69 percent of Democrats, said they would “probably” or “definitely” get the vaccine.
54 percent of Republicans said they would “probably” or “definitely” get a vaccine for COVID-19 if it were approved by the FDA, and 40 percent said they “probably” or “definitely” would get it, per the New York Times/Siena survey. Sixty-one percent of Americans, including 69 percent of Democrats, said they would “probably” or “definitely” get the vaccine. The levels of discrimination Black and Hispanic Americans face: About half of Republicans (52 percent) said that Black Americans face “a lot” of discrimation, and about half (47 percent) said that they don’t, per PRRI. Forty-five percent of Republicans agreed that Hispanic Americans face a lot of discrimation, compared to 53 percent who disagreed. Most Americans overall (75 percent) and Democrats (92 percent) said that Black Americans face a lot of discrimination. The numbers were similar but slightly lower for discrimination against Hispanic Americans: 69 percent of Americans and 86 percent of Democrats said that they face a lot of discrimination.
About half of Republicans (52 percent) said that Black Americans face “a lot” of discrimation, and about half (47 percent) said that they don’t, per PRRI. Forty-five percent of Republicans agreed that Hispanic Americans face a lot of discrimation, compared to 53 percent who disagreed. Most Americans overall (75 percent) and Democrats (92 percent) said that Black Americans face a lot of discrimination. The numbers were similar but slightly lower for discrimination against Hispanic Americans: 69 percent of Americans and 86 percent of Democrats said that they face a lot of discrimination. Immigration policy: Republicans are about equally split on allowing the separation of families at the border (45 percent supported, 53 percent opposed), protecting people who were brought to the U.S. as children but are not citizens from deportation (45 percent supported, 54 percent opposed) and creating a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants (48 percent supported such a pathway, 38 percent said they should be deported, and 14 percent said they should be allowed to become legal residents but not become citizens). A clear majority of Americans overall opposed separating families at the border (76 percent) and supported a pathway to citizenship (64 percent), as well as granting legal resident status to immigrants who would benefit from either the DREAM Act or DACA, commonly referred to as “Dreamers” (66 percent).
Republicans are about equally split on allowing the separation of families at the border (45 percent supported, 53 percent opposed), protecting people who were brought to the U.S. as children but are not citizens from deportation (45 percent supported, 54 percent opposed) and creating a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants (48 percent supported such a pathway, 38 percent said they should be deported, and 14 percent said they should be allowed to become legal residents but not become citizens). A clear majority of Americans overall opposed separating families at the border (76 percent) and supported a pathway to citizenship (64 percent), as well as granting legal resident status to immigrants who would benefit from either the DREAM Act or DACA, commonly referred to as “Dreamers” (66 percent). A universal basic income: 52 percent of Republicans supported guaranteeing all Americans a minimum income, compared to 48 percent who opposed such an idea, per PRRI. Seventy percent of Americans overall, including 88 percent of Democrats, supported a UBI.
You may have noticed both that there are more dividing issues listed here among Republicans than Democrats, and that there are a lot of ideas that split the Republican Party but are fairly popular among Americans. Part of that may be the nature of these surveys — a different set of questions might have found more splits among Democrats. But there’s an important explanation that gets at the parties’ divergent strategies.
Polling 101: Should You Trust The Polls In 2020? | FiveThirtyEight
Pollsters usually ask about ideas that are part of the current political discourse, which usually means that major politicians or activists are talking about them, but that they aren’t yet law. Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in particular, tend to campaign on and try to pass ideas that they know are fairly popular with the public, so it’s not surprising that there are lots of potential Biden administration proposals — such as a public health insurance option — that basically all Democratic voters and even some Republican voters are on board with. This Democratic approach makes sense electorally — it helps explain why the party is likely to win the popular vote in 2020 and has done so in most recent presidential elections.
Republicans like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Trump are more willing than Biden and Pelosi to push controversial policies (such as separating children from their families at the U.S.-Mexico border) and oppose popular ones (the protection from deportation for “Dreamers” that was enacted under President Obama). So that explains why a lot of fairly popular ideas aren’t already law. This approach is more electorally risky than the Democratic one but sometimes pays dividends in terms of policy: Trump has limited immigration much more than he would have if he had only advanced and executed ideas popular with the broader American public.
Other polling bites
62 percent of likely voters believe that government-imposed limits on the number of people who can attend in-person gatherings — including at churches — amid the coronavirus outbreak are constitutional, according to a recent poll from the left-leaning Data for Progress; 29 percent said that subjecting churches to those limits impinges on religious liberties.
57 percent of likely voters think the Affordable Care Act should be upheld by the Supreme Court even though the law’s mandate requiring people to purchase insurance has been effectively eliminated, according to that same survey. About 1 in 3 likely voters (32 percent), including 53 percent of Republicans, think the ACA should be scrapped in light of the mandate change.
77 percent of registered voters said that the outcome of this year’s presidential election matters to them more than it has previous presidential elections, according to a September Gallup poll. That 77 percent is higher than for any previous presidential election going back to 1996 in Gallup’s polling. (The next-highest result was 74 percent in 2008.) In this year’s survey, 85 percent of Democrats, 79 percent of Republicans and 69 percent of independents said that this election matters more than previous ones.
69 percent of likely voters, including 54 percent of Republicans, think that it will take more than a year for the U.S. economy to recover from the COVID-19 outbreak, according to a recent poll conducted by Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research on behalf of the Financial Times and the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Less than a third (31 percent) of Americans think the economy will recover within a year.
The same survey found that people are almost evenly split on whether Trump’s policies have helped the economy: 44 percent of people said his policies helped, compared to 46 who said they had hurt the economy.
53 percent of adults ages 18-30 want Biden to win the election, 23 percent favor Trump, and a large bloc (17 percent) said they weren’t sure, according to a new Vice News/Ipsos poll. A majority (57 percent) of those surveyed said that they don’t feel represented by either party, compared to 28 percent who disagreed with that sentiment. These young voters are supportive of free COVID-19 testing for all Americans (85 percent), Medicare for All (68 percent) and the Black Lives Matter movement (64 percent). They are not as supportive of the Green New Deal (41 percent), limiting abortions after the first trimester (35 percent) and building a wall along the entire U.S.-Mexico border (26 percent).
61 percent of U.S. adults said they know someone who has tested positive for COVID-19, according to an Axios/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 16-19, while only 38 percent said they did not. This is a big jump from early March, when only 4 percent of Americans said they knew someone who had tested positive for the virus, and even mid-July, when 41 percent knew someone who’d tested positive. More than 1 in 5 Americans (22 percent) said they know someone who has died of the virus, while 78 percent said they do not.
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 42.5 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 53.8 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -11.2 points). At this time last week, 42.7 percent approved and 54.3 percent disapproved (for a net approval rating of -11.6 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 42.7 percent and a disapproval rating of 53.0 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.3 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.4 percentage points (49.4 percent to 42.0 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7 points (48.9 percent to 41.9 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 6.3 points (48.7 percent to 42.3 percent).
Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-23--Polling 101: What Happened To The Polls In 2016 — And What You Should Know About Them In 2020

The results of the 2016 election came as a shock to many Americans .
How could Donald Trump win the @ @ @ @ @ in the polls ?
As Election Day approaches in 2020 , it once again looks @ @ @ @ @ in the lead .
But can we really trust what pollsters are telling us ?
@ @ @ @ @ explains why you shouldn ’ t give up on polling .

Polling 101: What Happened To The Polls In 2016 — And What You Should Know About Them In 2020
The results of the 2016 election came as a shock to many Americans. How could Donald Trump win the presidency when he was behind in the polls? As Election Day approaches in 2020, it once again looks like the Democratic candidate is in the lead. But can we really trust what pollsters are telling us? FiveThirtyEight database journalist Dhrumil Mehta explains why you shouldn’t give up on polling.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-23--What Went Down During The Final Presidential Debate Of 2020


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-23--Will A Runoff In Georgia Decide Control Of The Senate? And Other Listener Questions.

In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , editor-in-chief Nate Silver talks to Galen Druke about @ @ @ @ @ are showing different degrees of competitiveness .
They also answer more listener questions .

Will A Runoff In Georgia Decide Control Of The Senate? And Other Listener Questions.
In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, editor-in-chief Nate Silver talks to Galen Druke about why state-level and national polls are showing different degrees of competitiveness. They also answer more listener questions.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-23--Politics Podcast: National And District-Level Polls Disagree About How Close The 2020 Election Is

Our national polling average shows Joe Biden with about a 10-point lead , while the state-level polls indicate his lead is closer to 8 points .
Meanwhile , some recent polling in congressional districts shows margins for Biden that suggest he ’ s leading by more than 10 points nationally .
In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , editor-in-chief Nate Silver talks to Galen Druke about why those polls are showing different degrees of competitiveness .
They also answer listener questions including , How long did it take to build the forecast ?
And what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ runoff deciding who controls the Senate ?
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “ play ” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , on Twitter or in the comments .

Our national polling average shows Joe Biden with about a 10-point lead, while the state-level polls indicate his lead is closer to 8 points. Meanwhile, some recent polling in congressional districts shows margins for Biden that suggest he’s leading by more than 10 points nationally. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, editor-in-chief Nate Silver talks to Galen Druke about why those polls are showing different degrees of competitiveness. They also answer listener questions including, How long did it take to build the forecast? And what’s the chance of a Georgia runoff deciding who controls the Senate?
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-23--Will The Race Tighten After The Final Debate?

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew recaps the final presidential debate and considers what the @ @ @ @ @ will look like .

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew recaps the final presidential debate and considers what the rest of the 2020 campaign will look like.