fivethirtyeight--2020-10-05--How Americans Are Reacting To Trump’s COVID-19 Diagnosis

For a while now , attitudes toward the COVID-19 pandemic have been growing increasingly partisan .
Republicans , for instance , have been less likely to see COVID-19 as a threat and more resistant to taking public health precautions like reducing their movement and practicing social distancing measures .
That may change , though , as the country ’ s long-running battle with COVID-19 hit a new inflection point on Friday when news broke that President Trump had been infected .
There ’ s still a lot we don ’ t know at this point , but polls in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hospitalization show signs of Republicans taking the virus a little more seriously and maybe even adjusting their own behavior in response .
But political scientists who have been following public opinion over the course of the pandemic cautioned us that a lot still depends on how long Trump remains ill , whether he continues to insist that he ’ s recovering quickly and , perhaps most importantly , whether the Trump team starts handling the virus differently — for example , by starting to wear masks .
“ Attitudes and behaviors around COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — it will take a lot to move them in a significant , lasting way , ” said Shana Gadarian , a political science professor at Syracuse University who is part of a team that has repeatedly surveyed Americans about COVID-19 since March .
One big question is whether Trump will change his own behavior as a result of his experience with the virus , which could have a significant impact on how Republicans respond .
[ Editor ’ s note : After publication , Trump tweeted that he planned to leave the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t be afraid of covid.
” ] Here ’ s a look at what we know so far : Americans — including some Republicans — don ’ t think Trump took enough precautions At this point , we only have five polls asking Americans what they think about the president ’ s diagnosis and how it has ( or hasn ’ t ) affected how they think about the coronavirus , but one thing that stands out is that most Americans , including some Republicans , don ’ t think Trump has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Reuters/Ipsos poll , for instance , they found that 67 percent of registered voters agreed that if Trump had taken the coronavirus more seriously , he probably wouldn ’ t have been infected , including about 9 in 10 Democrats and half of all Republicans .
Meanwhile , a Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that 52 percent of registered voters didn ’ t trust Trump to give accurate info about his health and his COVID-19 treatment .
And Politico/Morning Consult found that 56 percent of Americans did not trust Trump to give accurate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of trust is largely in line with other surveys we saw prior to the president ’ s diagnosis , as Americans have long distrusted Trump to handle the coronavirus pandemic .
There ’ s some evidence that Republicans might take the coronavirus more seriously Some polls point to a small but meaningful increase in how seriously the public perceives the threat of the coronavirus , especially among Republicans .
In an ABC News/Ipsos survey conducted Oct. 2-3 , 37 percent of Americans said they were very concerned that they or someone they knew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said they were somewhat concerned .
This represented a 9-point uptick in concern from the same survey in mid-September , when 29 percent said they were very concerned and 43 percent somewhat concerned .
Notably , this change was driven entirely by Republicans and independents , too : 70 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of independents were concerned , up from 52 percent and 69 percent , respectively .
Conversely , concern among Democrats didn ’ t budge .
But not every survey found as large of an increase in concern .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ found 22 percent of registered voters were very worried and 39 percent somewhat worried about personally contracting the virus , almost identical to what it found in late September .
And the share of voters who said they were very worried about the coronavirus was essentially unchanged in Morning Consult ’ s polling .
Still , some Americans may be taking the coronavirus a bit more seriously after Trump ’ s diagnosis , at least when it comes to broader public health measures .
For instance , Politico/Morning Consult found that the share @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were very effective at preventing the spread of the coronavirus increased slightly , from 56 percent in late September to 59 percent .
And what ’ s more , 52 percent of Republicans answered this way , which marked the first time the share of Republicans had topped 50 percent since the pollster started asking about the effectiveness of masks in early March .
Politico/Morning Consult ’ s survey also found that a majority of Americans said the news about Trump made them more likely to wear a mask in public or practice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who view the threat of the coronavirus as somehow overblown may also be down .
Axios/SurveyMonkey found that , compared to numbers from back in March , more Americans believed that news reports about the seriousness of COVID-19 are generally correct and fewer say they ’ re generally exaggerated .
But public opinion on how Trump ’ s handled the pandemic may be pretty baked in When it came to what Americans thought about Trump ’ s handling of the coronavirus , there was little or no change in public opinion .
Among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s approval rating at 36 percent , slightly down from 39 percent in late September .
And Reuters/Ipsos found his approval among all Americans at 41 percent , not too different from the 43 percent who approved of his response in a poll conducted just before the news of his diagnosis .
Lastly , Yahoo News/YouGov found little movement among registered voters compared to its late September survey ( 43 percent versus 41 percent ) .
As you can see in our tracker on coronavirus polling , these latest polls broadly match the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diagnosis became public : On Oct. 1 , about 40 percent approved of his handling of the coronavirus .
It ’ s hard to imagine at this point that there will be a meaningful shift in public opinion on how Trump has handled the virus .
On the one hand , it is somewhat good news for Trump that there aren ’ t signs of public opinion plummeting .
But at the same time , other political leaders ’ approval ratings have not moved all that much after they became infected with COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sees a boost .
Although Trump ’ s overall approval rating has ticked up somewhat .
Some experts think it ’ s going to take a lot to shift public opinion It ’ s been less than a week since the news of Trump ’ s diagnosis broke , and we ’ re still getting mixed signals about the actual state of Trump ’ s health from his doctors .
So it ’ s possible what we ’ re seeing in the polls now could change .
But Marc Hetherington , a political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Chapel Hill who has been studying public opinion around COVID-19 and the government response since the pandemic began , said that he isn ’ t holding his breath for a big shift in Republicans ’ opinions .
“ It all depends on how he [ Trump ] handles this , ” Hetherington said .
“ He could say , ‘ Boy , I got that one wrong , we ought to be wearing masks and so forth , this is a really serious virus.
’ But that ’ s very much not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ past few months , research by Hetherington , Gadarian and other political scientists has found that Republicans and Democrats have gotten further apart on pretty much everything having to do with COVID-19 , from their personal concern that they might get sick to their support for government public health interventions like mask mandates .
And as we wrote earlier this summer , Republicans have become less and less likely than Democrats to say they ’ re extremely concerned they will get COVID-19 and require hospitalization .
Recent weekly surveys by the Democracy Fund @ @ @ @ @ @ @ finding , showing that Americans continue to be divided by party on whether it ’ s a good idea for states to close businesses and restrict travel in response to the pandemic .
Hetherington ’ s team is still in the process of publishing the third wave of their research , which was completed just before Trump ’ s diagnosis became public , but in an email Hetherington shared with us some preliminary findings , including that the share of Republicans who are somewhat or very concerned about COVID-19 fell from 63 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Meanwhile , Republican support for stay-at-home orders and business closures fell even more dramatically during that period .
It ’ s worth noting , though , that Hetherington ’ s team also found some startling gaps between what individuals said they were doing and their support for those government-enforced public health measures .
By September , for instance , 85 percent of Republicans said they were wearing masks in public indoors “ very often , ” although only 71 percent supported government-imposed mask mandates ( and support for stay-at-home orders and business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s not impossible for these attitudes to reverse course , though .
A study conducted in March found that the partisan divide on risk perception and health behavior did narrow after a number of conservative politicians announced they were self-quarantining after possible exposure to the virus and the White House released social distancing guidelines .
And research by Hetherington suggests that Americans become more supportive of policies like mask mandates when they are more afraid that the virus could affect them personally — which could , in theory , happen as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But Hetherington said he thinks it will take more than Trump becoming sick — or even being hospitalized — for us to see really big or lasting changes in Republicans ’ attitudes .
In part , that ’ s because he expected Republican views to shift over the summer , when COVID-19 cases began to spike in areas of the country where more Republicans live .
That ’ s not what happened , though .
In fact , according to his surveys , Republicans actually got less concerned about the threat of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the attitude is [ COVID-19 ] is just something we ’ ve got to tough out , ’ will Trump getting the virus really change that ?
” Hetherington asked .
More likely it will depend , he said , on just how long Trump remains hospitalized , and how his health fares over the next few weeks .

For a while now, attitudes toward the COVID-19 pandemic have been growing increasingly partisan. Republicans, for instance, have been less likely to see COVID-19 as a threat and more resistant to taking public health precautions like reducing their movement and practicing social distancing measures.
That may change, though, as the country’s long-running battle with COVID-19 hit a new inflection point on Friday when news broke that President Trump had been infected. There’s still a lot we don’t know at this point, but polls in the wake of Trump’s diagnosis and hospitalization show signs of Republicans taking the virus a little more seriously and maybe even adjusting their own behavior in response.
But political scientists who have been following public opinion over the course of the pandemic cautioned us that a lot still depends on how long Trump remains ill, whether he continues to insist that he’s recovering quickly and, perhaps most importantly, whether the Trump team starts handling the virus differently — for example, by starting to wear masks.
“Attitudes and behaviors around COVID-19 have become really concrete at this point — it will take a lot to move them in a significant, lasting way,” said Shana Gadarian, a political science professor at Syracuse University who is part of a team that has repeatedly surveyed Americans about COVID-19 since March. One big question is whether Trump will change his own behavior as a result of his experience with the virus, which could have a significant impact on how Republicans respond. [Editor’s note: After publication, Trump tweeted that he planned to leave the hospital today, telling Americans “Don’t be afraid of covid.”]
Here’s a look at what we know so far:
Americans — including some Republicans — don’t think Trump took enough precautions
At this point, we only have five polls asking Americans what they think about the president’s diagnosis and how it has (or hasn’t) affected how they think about the coronavirus, but one thing that stands out is that most Americans, including some Republicans, don’t think Trump has taken the coronavirus seriously enough.
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll, for instance, they found that 67 percent of registered voters agreed that if Trump had taken the coronavirus more seriously, he probably wouldn’t have been infected, including about 9 in 10 Democrats and half of all Republicans. Meanwhile, a Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that 52 percent of registered voters didn’t trust Trump to give accurate info about his health and his COVID-19 treatment. And Politico/Morning Consult found that 56 percent of Americans did not trust Trump to give accurate updates on his health.
This lack of trust is largely in line with other surveys we saw prior to the president’s diagnosis, as Americans have long distrusted Trump to handle the coronavirus pandemic.
There’s some evidence that Republicans might take the coronavirus more seriously
Some polls point to a small but meaningful increase in how seriously the public perceives the threat of the coronavirus, especially among Republicans. In an ABC News/Ipsos survey conducted Oct. 2-3, 37 percent of Americans said they were very concerned that they or someone they knew would become infected, and 44 percent said they were somewhat concerned. This represented a 9-point uptick in concern from the same survey in mid-September, when 29 percent said they were very concerned and 43 percent somewhat concerned. Notably, this change was driven entirely by Republicans and independents, too: 70 percent of Republicans and 82 percent of independents were concerned, up from 52 percent and 69 percent, respectively. Conversely, concern among Democrats didn’t budge.
But not every survey found as large of an increase in concern. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll in early October found 22 percent of registered voters were very worried and 39 percent somewhat worried about personally contracting the virus, almost identical to what it found in late September. And the share of voters who said they were very worried about the coronavirus was essentially unchanged in Morning Consult’s polling.
Still, some Americans may be taking the coronavirus a bit more seriously after Trump’s diagnosis, at least when it comes to broader public health measures. For instance, Politico/Morning Consult found that the share of adults who said that face masks were very effective at preventing the spread of the coronavirus increased slightly, from 56 percent in late September to 59 percent. And what’s more, 52 percent of Republicans answered this way, which marked the first time the share of Republicans had topped 50 percent since the pollster started asking about the effectiveness of masks in early March. Politico/Morning Consult’s survey also found that a majority of Americans said the news about Trump made them more likely to wear a mask in public or practice social distancing.
The share of people who view the threat of the coronavirus as somehow overblown may also be down. Axios/SurveyMonkey found that, compared to numbers from back in March, more Americans believed that news reports about the seriousness of COVID-19 are generally correct and fewer say they’re generally exaggerated.
But public opinion on how Trump’s handled the pandemic may be pretty baked in
When it came to what Americans thought about Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, there was little or no change in public opinion. Among adults, Politico/Morning Consult found Trump’s approval rating at 36 percent, slightly down from 39 percent in late September. And Reuters/Ipsos found his approval among all Americans at 41 percent, not too different from the 43 percent who approved of his response in a poll conducted just before the news of his diagnosis. Lastly, Yahoo News/YouGov found little movement among registered voters compared to its late September survey (43 percent versus 41 percent).
As you can see in our tracker on coronavirus polling, these latest polls broadly match the same poor ratings Trump had before his diagnosis became public: On Oct. 1, about 40 percent approved of his handling of the coronavirus.
It’s hard to imagine at this point that there will be a meaningful shift in public opinion on how Trump has handled the virus. On the one hand, it is somewhat good news for Trump that there aren’t signs of public opinion plummeting. But at the same time, other political leaders’ approval ratings have not moved all that much after they became infected with COVID-19, so it’s unlikely Trump sees a boost. Although Trump’s overall approval rating has ticked up somewhat.
Some experts think it’s going to take a lot to shift public opinion
It’s been less than a week since the news of Trump’s diagnosis broke, and we’re still getting mixed signals about the actual state of Trump’s health from his doctors. So it’s possible what we’re seeing in the polls now could change. But Marc Hetherington, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill who has been studying public opinion around COVID-19 and the government response since the pandemic began, said that he isn’t holding his breath for a big shift in Republicans’ opinions. “It all depends on how he [Trump] handles this,” Hetherington said. “He could say, ‘Boy, I got that one wrong, we ought to be wearing masks and so forth, this is a really serious virus.’ But that’s very much not the message so far.”
Over the past few months, research by Hetherington, Gadarian and other political scientists has found that Republicans and Democrats have gotten further apart on pretty much everything having to do with COVID-19, from their personal concern that they might get sick to their support for government public health interventions like mask mandates. And as we wrote earlier this summer, Republicans have become less and less likely than Democrats to say they’re extremely concerned they will get COVID-19 and require hospitalization. Recent weekly surveys by the Democracy Fund’s Voter Study Group echo this finding, showing that Americans continue to be divided by party on whether it’s a good idea for states to close businesses and restrict travel in response to the pandemic.
Hetherington’s team is still in the process of publishing the third wave of their research, which was completed just before Trump’s diagnosis became public, but in an email Hetherington shared with us some preliminary findings, including that the share of Republicans who are somewhat or very concerned about COVID-19 fell from 63 percent in March to 48 percent in September. Meanwhile, Republican support for stay-at-home orders and business closures fell even more dramatically during that period.
It’s worth noting, though, that Hetherington’s team also found some startling gaps between what individuals said they were doing and their support for those government-enforced public health measures. By September, for instance, 85 percent of Republicans said they were wearing masks in public indoors “very often,” although only 71 percent supported government-imposed mask mandates (and support for stay-at-home orders and business closures was even lower).
It’s not impossible for these attitudes to reverse course, though. A study conducted in March found that the partisan divide on risk perception and health behavior did narrow after a number of conservative politicians announced they were self-quarantining after possible exposure to the virus and the White House released social distancing guidelines. And research by Hetherington suggests that Americans become more supportive of policies like mask mandates when they are more afraid that the virus could affect them personally — which could, in theory, happen as a result of Trump’s illness.
But Hetherington said he thinks it will take more than Trump becoming sick — or even being hospitalized — for us to see really big or lasting changes in Republicans’ attitudes. In part, that’s because he expected Republican views to shift over the summer, when COVID-19 cases began to spike in areas of the country where more Republicans live. That’s not what happened, though. In fact, according to his surveys, Republicans actually got less concerned about the threat of the virus during that period.
“If the attitude is [COVID-19] is just something we’ve got to tough out,’ will Trump getting the virus really change that?” Hetherington asked. More likely it will depend, he said, on just how long Trump remains hospitalized, and how his health fares over the next few weeks.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-06--The Economy Was Trump’s One Remaining Advantage. Now He Might Have Blown It.

President Trump was already in a deep electoral hole following the first debate , but one remaining bright spot for him was the economy .
So calling on Republican leaders to end talks with Democrats on another stimulus package — as Trump did on Tuesday — would seem like a bad move for the president , and , in fact , it did send the stock market tumbling .
True , U.S. GDP fell at an annualized rate of 31.7 percent in the second quarter , the largest ever quarterly decline .
But Trump ’ s approval ratings on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : 51 percent of voters approve of his economic handling and 47 percent disapprove of it , according to the Real Clear Politics average .
The economy has also been one of the few issues on which polls regularly find that voters prefer Trump to Joe Biden .
How to explain this seeming disconnect ?
Well , Trump can actually make some decent arguments to voters about the economy that are grounded in the data .
For instance , the economy was pretty good during his first three years in office .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Atlanta Federal Reserve ’ s “ nowcast ” estimates that GDP grew by a 35.3 percent annualized rate in the third quarter , which ended on Sept. 30 .
That still leaves the economy in worse shape than before the pandemic , but not that much worse .
Trump had also been able to patch a lot of holes in the economy with the series of stimulus packages passed by Congress earlier this year , which injected trillions of dollars into the economy in the form of direct cash payments , expanded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Indeed , one of the economic indicators that has historically been among the most reliable predictors of the election — disposable income — sharply increased amid the pandemic because of the stimulus benefits , although it has since fallen as those benefits have lapsed : The FiveThirtyEight economic index , an element of our presidential forecast , is pretty consistent , too , with Trump ’ s decent approval ratings on the economy , in part because of that growth in disposable income .
Here ’ s what it said as of Tuesday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the table below , three of the six categories we use — income , inflation and the stock market — were actually slightly positive for Trump .
That partly makes up for exceptionally poor jobs numbers , and fairly poor pandemic-driven numbers on manufacturing and consumer spending .
( The values in our economic index are z-scores , or the number of standard deviations above or below the mean in each category , based on past and projected economic data in the two years in the runup to the election with recent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And , overall , if we average the six categories together , the economic index is only about half a standard deviation below average .
In a time of high polarization and since Trump is an elected incumbent — elected incumbents usually win reelection — this isn ’ t that bad .
In fact , the “ fundamentals ” part of our model actually predicted an almost 50/50 split in the popular vote based on recent values of the economic index .
Clearly the economic index doesn ’ t capture all that is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — especially since Trump is 8 or 9 points behind in national polls .
But stay with me for a moment .
We can use the index to get some rough idea of how much the stimulus funding earlier in the year might have helped Trump .
Suppose , for instance , that absent any stimulus , the disposable income component of our index had a z-score of -2.39 , which was as bad as the jobs component .
If that were the case , Trump would then have been favored to lose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the index , instead of it being tied .
So maybe instead of being 8 or 9 points down in polls — given how poorly voters think he ’ s handled COVID-19 and everything else — he might have been 11 or 12 points behind instead .
And that probably isn ’ t going far enough , since the stimulus package likely also helped with other categories such as manufacturing and consumer spending .
Judging by the reaction of investors after talks broke off on Tuesday , it also helped keep the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that five of the six indicators in our index — everything other than inflation — had a z-score as bad as the jobs component ( -2.39 ) .
Under that scenario , Trump would have been expected to lose by 8 points based on the economic index and incumbency .
Throw his other problems into the mix and we ’ d potentially be talking about a mid-double-digit loss .
That ’ s certainly not to imply that the collapse of further stimulus spending will cause a further 3-point or 8-point shift in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comes pretty close to the election ( in our model , only 11 percent of the forecast is now based on the economy and incumbency , and this will fall to 0 percent by Election Day ) , the stimulus wasn ’ t necessarily likely to pass anyway , and the failure of further stimulus funding doesn ’ t entirely erase the fact that people and businesses did get some help in the spring .
But it ’ s still a hard move to comprehend , especially at a time when the president @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mildly in some polls , and sharply so in others .
And the way Trump went about it makes matters worse for him , politically .
Up until this point , House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi had faced at least a little bit of a risk : Though the stimulus might have helped Trump , she could have been partly blamed if talks collapsed .
But now , Trump ’ s tweets make it clear that he was the one who pulled out of the talks .
Further stimulus spending was also really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ York Times/Siena College national poll in late September favored a $ 2 trillion stimulus package by a 72-23 margin .
The possibility that the race would tighten in the stretch run because of economic improvement was one of the things helping Trump most in our model .
Trump ’ s Electoral College chances were at 17 percent in our forecast as of Tuesday afternoon — his lowest figure of the year — but still a lot better than zero .
The economic index was responsible for part of that 17 percent , however @ @ @ @ @ @ @ possibly encountering news of layoffs instead of renewed growth , Trump may have undermined his best comeback strategy .

President Trump was already in a deep electoral hole following the first debate, but one remaining bright spot for him was the economy. So calling on Republican leaders to end talks with Democrats on another stimulus package — as Trump did on Tuesday — would seem like a bad move for the president, and, in fact, it did send the stock market tumbling.
True, U.S. GDP fell at an annualized rate of 31.7 percent in the second quarter, the largest ever quarterly decline. But Trump’s approval ratings on the economy had remained relatively solid despite this: 51 percent of voters approve of his economic handling and 47 percent disapprove of it, according to the Real Clear Politics average. The economy has also been one of the few issues on which polls regularly find that voters prefer Trump to Joe Biden.
How to explain this seeming disconnect? Well, Trump can actually make some decent arguments to voters about the economy that are grounded in the data. For instance, the economy was pretty good during his first three years in office. And the rebound has been pretty swift. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “nowcast” estimates that GDP grew by a 35.3 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, which ended on Sept. 30. That still leaves the economy in worse shape than before the pandemic, but not that much worse.
Trump had also been able to patch a lot of holes in the economy with the series of stimulus packages passed by Congress earlier this year, which injected trillions of dollars into the economy in the form of direct cash payments, expanded unemployment benefits and protections for businesses. Indeed, one of the economic indicators that has historically been among the most reliable predictors of the election — disposable income — sharply increased amid the pandemic because of the stimulus benefits, although it has since fallen as those benefits have lapsed:
The FiveThirtyEight economic index, an element of our presidential forecast, is pretty consistent, too, with Trump’s decent approval ratings on the economy, in part because of that growth in disposable income. Here’s what it said as of Tuesday morning, and as you can see in the table below, three of the six categories we use — income, inflation and the stock market — were actually slightly positive for Trump. That partly makes up for exceptionally poor jobs numbers, and fairly poor pandemic-driven numbers on manufacturing and consumer spending. (The values in our economic index are z-scores, or the number of standard deviations above or below the mean in each category, based on past and projected economic data in the two years in the runup to the election with recent quarters weighted much more heavily.)
The economic news wasn’t all that bad FiveThirtyEight’s economic Index as of 8 a.m. Eastern on Oct. 6, 2020 Category Indicator Z-Score Income Real disposable personal income +0.57 Inflation Consumer price index +0.64 Jobs Nonfarm payrolls -2.39 Manufacturing Industrial production -1.34 Spending Personal consumption expenditures -1.11 Stock Market S&P 500 +0.79 Combined Average of all six indicators -0.47 The values in our economic index are z-scores, or the number of standard deviations above or below the mean in each category, based on past and projected economic data in the two years in the runup to the election with recent quarters weighted much more heavily.
And, overall, if we average the six categories together, the economic index is only about half a standard deviation below average. In a time of high polarization and since Trump is an elected incumbent — elected incumbents usually win reelection — this isn’t that bad. In fact, the “fundamentals” part of our model actually predicted an almost 50/50 split in the popular vote based on recent values of the economic index.
Clearly the economic index doesn’t capture all that is going on in the country, though — especially since Trump is 8 or 9 points behind in national polls. But stay with me for a moment. We can use the index to get some rough idea of how much the stimulus funding earlier in the year might have helped Trump.
Suppose, for instance, that absent any stimulus, the disposable income component of our index had a z-score of -2.39, which was as bad as the jobs component. If that were the case, Trump would then have been favored to lose the popular vote by 3 points based on the index, instead of it being tied. So maybe instead of being 8 or 9 points down in polls — given how poorly voters think he’s handled COVID-19 and everything else — he might have been 11 or 12 points behind instead.
And that probably isn’t going far enough, since the stimulus package likely also helped with other categories such as manufacturing and consumer spending. Judging by the reaction of investors after talks broke off on Tuesday, it also helped keep the stock market happy. So suppose instead that five of the six indicators in our index — everything other than inflation — had a z-score as bad as the jobs component (-2.39). Under that scenario, Trump would have been expected to lose by 8 points based on the economic index and incumbency. Throw his other problems into the mix and we’d potentially be talking about a mid-double-digit loss.
That’s certainly not to imply that the collapse of further stimulus spending will cause a further 3-point or 8-point shift in the polls away from Trump. The news comes pretty close to the election (in our model, only 11 percent of the forecast is now based on the economy and incumbency, and this will fall to 0 percent by Election Day), the stimulus wasn’t necessarily likely to pass anyway, and the failure of further stimulus funding doesn’t entirely erase the fact that people and businesses did get some help in the spring.
But it’s still a hard move to comprehend, especially at a time when the president’s numbers were already declining — mildly in some polls, and sharply so in others. And the way Trump went about it makes matters worse for him, politically. Up until this point, House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi had faced at least a little bit of a risk: Though the stimulus might have helped Trump, she could have been partly blamed if talks collapsed. But now, Trump’s tweets make it clear that he was the one who pulled out of the talks.
Further stimulus spending was also really popular. Voters surveyed in the New York Times/Siena College national poll in late September favored a $2 trillion stimulus package by a 72-23 margin.
The possibility that the race would tighten in the stretch run because of economic improvement was one of the things helping Trump most in our model. Trump’s Electoral College chances were at 17 percent in our forecast as of Tuesday afternoon — his lowest figure of the year — but still a lot better than zero. The economic index was responsible for part of that 17 percent, however. Now, though, with voters possibly encountering news of layoffs instead of renewed growth, Trump may have undermined his best comeback strategy.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-06--Who Will Win The Vice Presidential Debate?

How likely do you think each is to win ?
How likely are you to vote for each ?
On Wednesday evening , Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Kamala Harris will meet in the only scheduled vice presidential debate .
Normally , vice presidential debates are lower-stakes affairs than presidential debates , but with President Trump contracting the coronavirus , the VP debate has grabbed headlines as the two remaining presidential debates hang in limbo .
We ’ re once again partnering with Ipsos to see how the debate shapes people ’ s views of the vice presidential contenders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whole — using Ipsos ’ s KnowledgePanel to interview the same people before and after the debate .
Respondents were also given the option of third-party candidates or ‘ someone else.
’ Additionally , they could indicate that they will not vote .
Similar to our poll for the first presidential debate , most respondents had strong feelings about the two presidential tickets , saying they were absolutely certain to vote for one or the other .
And in line with our polling average , more people said they were likely to vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 43 percent said they were “ absolutely certain ” to vote for Biden , while only 31 percent said the same for Trump .
But as was true in the first debate , Biden ’ s lead among respondents was n't reflected in their views of his chances .
Many respondents , regardless of who they planned to back , thought the race was more of a toss-up : When asked to rate the candidates ’ chances of winning on a scale of 0 to 10 , they gave Trump a score of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , on average .
Supporters are more certain to vote than they are excited to do so How likely and how excited respondents are to vote in the 2020 presidential election , by preferred candidate Respondents were asked to rate how likely they were to vote for each ticket on a scale of 0-10 , and their preferred ticket is the one who received the higher score .
Respondents who gave both candidates the same score are not included .
Respondents who already voted are included in the “ absolutely certain ” bucket @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shot of voting are included in the “ not too likely ” bucket .
Overall , the vast majority of respondents say they are highly motivated to vote .
And those who know which candidate they ’ re backing are especially motivated : 86 percent of Biden voters and 82 percent of Trump voters say they are “ absolutely certain ” to vote .
That includes 10 percent of Biden ’ s supporters who say they have already voted ; for Trump ’ s supporters , that number is 5 percent .
Excitement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ half of each candidate ’ s supporters said they were “ very excited ” to vote and another fifth said they were “ somewhat excited .
”

On Wednesday evening, Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Kamala Harris faced off in the first and only vice presidential debate. Though less tumultuous than last week’s presidential debate, it featured a lot of disagreement — and a lot of evasive answers. We once again partnered with Ipsos to see whether the debate changed Americans’ views of the candidates, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel to track opinions among the same group of people before and after the debate. The verdict: While the debate didn’t really change how people are planning to vote, Harris did improve her favorability ratings.
The Biden-Harris ticket is still ahead, but many think Trump-Pence have a good chance of winning
How likely respondents are to vote for each candidate and how likely they think each candidate is to win, on a scale from 0 (no chance) to 10 (absolutely certain)
Respondents were also given the option of third-party candidates or ‘someone else.’ Additionally, they could indicate that they will not vote.
As with last week’s presidential debate, it doesn’t look like the vice presidential debate moved the needle much — somewhat unsurprising, given how baked in respondents’ opinions seem to be. In fact, Biden’s lead over Trump was exactly the same as his lead in our pre-debate poll.
The debate also didn’t really change who people think will win the presidency, although like last week, some people shifted from thinking it was a complete toss-up (50-50) to thinking Biden had closer to an 80-20 chance of winning, which is more in line with the odds our forecast gives him.
Harris got higher marks for her performance — and her policies
How respondents rated each candidate’s debate performance and their answers on policies
Performance Policies Candidate good poor good poor Pence 59.5% 38.8% 44.1% 52.6% Harris 69.3 28.7 61.7 35.6
Only among respondents who said that they had watched some or all of the debate.
Debate watchers were more impressed with Harris’s performance than Pence’s, with 69 percent saying her performance was “very good” or “somewhat good,” compared to 60 percent who said the same for him. They were also more impressed with the policies she outlined. It’s noteworthy, though, that both vice presidential contenders got better marks for their performance than Trump did last week — just 33 percent thought the president performed well.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-06--How The Two-Party System Obscures The Complexity Of Black Americans’ Politics

Joe Biden has encountered a number of awkward moments with Black voters this summer .
Whether telling Black voters that they “ ain ’ t Black ” if they ’ re considering voting for Trump or telling reporters that the Latino community is “ incredibly diverse , ” “ unlike ” the Black community , Biden , like many other politicians , has repeatedly failed to demonstrate an understanding of the complexity of Black people ’ s politics .
This is likely a byproduct of the fact that Black Americans are nearly uniform in their support for the Democratic Party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American National Election Study , for example , 82 percent of Black Americans identified as Democrats , with 90 percent casting their ballot for the Democratic Party ’ s nominee , Hillary Clinton .
Only 10 percent voted for Donald Trump , the Republican nominee .
For scholars and analysts obsessed with partisanship , it is no wonder that Black Americans appear monolithic .
If partisanship is politics and politics is partisanship , Black partisanship must tell us all we need to know about Black people ’ s politics , or so the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a candidate to support are , however , only two expressions of an individual ’ s politics .
Yes , Black people are overwhelmingly Democratic and , like most Americans , vote in line with that partisan identity .
But we know , both from debates among Black people throughout this year ’ s Democratic presidential primary and from the historical record that Black Americans , like members of any group , often disagree with one another about politics .
The argument here is straightforward : Black people ’ s politics can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reduced to partisanship .
So what other markers might better showcase the diversity of Black political thought ?
One obvious candidate is how Black Americans identify ideologically .
There is , after all , much more diversity in Black Americans ’ ideological identities than in their partisan identities .
In 2016 , for example , 45 percent of Black Americans identified as liberal and 43 percent identified as conservative .
This is a far cry from the near-uniformity of Black partisanship .
In fact , this ideological variation has led some scholars and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ why conservative-identifying Black Americans remain so loyal to the Democratic Party .
The problem is that this ideological split is an illusion .
It turns out , a large subset of Black Americans simply don ’ t make use of the terms “ liberal ” and “ conservative ” when discussing politics .
That is , these terms — which are familiar to those who participate in certain types of elite political discourse — are often just unfamiliar to many Black Americans for whom these terms are not part of their political lexicon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this piece , Jefferson , found in his research .
In the 2012 ANES , for example , 44 percent of Black Americans categorized Barack Obama as conservative .
A similar share categorized Mitt Romney as liberal .
And 35 percent of Black Americans said the Democratic Party was more conservative than the Republican Party .
In other words , ideological identification actually tells us very little about Black people ’ s politics because standard ideological terms are not commonplace in Black Americans ’ political discourse .
So while the standard survey item @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appears to work fine for white Americans , the question — and ideological identification , more generally — simply can not be used to accurately represent the contours of Black people ’ s politics .
So , what do we do if we want to get a more accurate portrait of Black public opinion ?
Look at their policy preferences .
Following an approach similar to one taken by political scientists Shawn Treier and Sunshine Hillygus , we looked at what Black people think about various economic and social policies , splitting respondents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : 1 ) respondents who adopt the more liberal policy position ; 2 ) respondents who adopt a status quo or moderate position ; and 3 ) respondents who adopt the more conservative issue position .
And as you can see in the chart below , Black Americans have diverse views on government spending , which is masked when we focus solely on Black partisanship .
Take Black Americans ’ attitudes toward two issues for which they are often thought to have uniformly liberal preferences ( especially in comparison to white people ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out , Black public opinion is much more complex .
On the question of whether spending on crime should be increased , decreased , or kept the same , 84 percent of Black respondents said that spending should be increased .
And when asked the same about welfare spending , 28 percent of Black respondents agree that spending should be decreased while only 31 percent adopted the more liberal view that welfare spending should be increased .
This diversity in Black Americans ’ preferences — not to mention the conservative bent on some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be wary of claims that the “ Black community , ” as a whole , supports any particular party ’ s policies .
What about Black Americans ’ attitudes toward social issues that they ’ re perceived to hold liberal positions on , such as affirmative action and the death penalty ?
On the question of whether Black Americans should be given preferential treatment in hiring and promoting decisions , 51 percent of Black Americans oppose it ( 49 percent support it ) .
Likewise with the death penalty , which disproportionately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black Americans support capital punishment for people convicted of murder .
( Although 63 percent oppose it . )
So , why does this all matter ?
First , as analysts of and participants in the American political system , we should have an accurate portrait of what the public desires .
This point is even more important for elites interested in convincing Black Americans to support their candidacies .
They must recognize disagreements that exist among Black voters if they are to build the broadest coalition of Black support .
Second , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a singular fact — even when that is partisanship or vote choice — limits our understanding of conflict , which is the essence of politics .
The key takeaway from our analysis is this : There is no “ Black vote ” and you should be skeptical of anyone who claims that there is some cohesive “ Black community.
” To be sure , we ’ ve only presented a snapshot of the diversity of Black political thought ; readers interested in learning more should read ( or skim ) a few key @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , to be sure , but anyone seriously interested in understanding the complexities of Black politics would do well to read these texts ( and talk to some Black people ) .

Joe Biden has encountered a number of awkward moments with Black voters this summer.
Whether telling Black voters that they “ain’t Black” if they’re considering voting for Trump or telling reporters that the Latino community is “incredibly diverse,” “unlike” the Black community, Biden, like many other politicians, has repeatedly failed to demonstrate an understanding of the complexity of Black people’s politics.
This is likely a byproduct of the fact that Black Americans are nearly uniform in their support for the Democratic Party. According to data from the 2016 American National Election Study, for example, 82 percent of Black Americans identified as Democrats, with 90 percent casting their ballot for the Democratic Party’s nominee, Hillary Clinton. Only 10 percent voted for Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. For scholars and analysts obsessed with partisanship, it is no wonder that Black Americans appear monolithic. If partisanship is politics and politics is partisanship, Black partisanship must tell us all we need to know about Black people’s politics, or so the logic goes.
Choosing a political party and a candidate to support are, however, only two expressions of an individual’s politics. Yes, Black people are overwhelmingly Democratic and, like most Americans, vote in line with that partisan identity. But we know, both from debates among Black people throughout this year’s Democratic presidential primary and from the historical record that Black Americans, like members of any group, often disagree with one another about politics.
The argument here is straightforward: Black people’s politics cannot — and should not — be reduced to partisanship.
So what other markers might better showcase the diversity of Black political thought?
One obvious candidate is how Black Americans identify ideologically. There is, after all, much more diversity in Black Americans’ ideological identities than in their partisan identities. In 2016, for example, 45 percent of Black Americans identified as liberal and 43 percent identified as conservative. This is a far cry from the near-uniformity of Black partisanship.
In fact, this ideological variation has led some scholars and other analysts of American politics to wonder why conservative-identifying Black Americans remain so loyal to the Democratic Party.
The problem is that this ideological split is an illusion. It turns out, a large subset of Black Americans simply don’t make use of the terms “liberal” and “conservative” when discussing politics. That is, these terms — which are familiar to those who participate in certain types of elite political discourse — are often just unfamiliar to many Black Americans for whom these terms are not part of their political lexicon, as one of the authors of this piece, Jefferson, found in his research.
In the 2012 ANES, for example, 44 percent of Black Americans categorized Barack Obama as conservative. A similar share categorized Mitt Romney as liberal. And 35 percent of Black Americans said the Democratic Party was more conservative than the Republican Party. In other words, ideological identification actually tells us very little about Black people’s politics because standard ideological terms are not commonplace in Black Americans’ political discourse.
So while the standard survey item used to capture how Americans identify ideologically appears to work fine for white Americans, the question — and ideological identification, more generally — simply cannot be used to accurately represent the contours of Black people’s politics.
So, what do we do if we want to get a more accurate portrait of Black public opinion? Look at their policy preferences.
Following an approach similar to one taken by political scientists Shawn Treier and Sunshine Hillygus, we looked at what Black people think about various economic and social policies, splitting respondents into three separate bins for each policy: 1) respondents who adopt the more liberal policy position; 2) respondents who adopt a status quo or moderate position; and 3) respondents who adopt the more conservative issue position. And as you can see in the chart below, Black Americans have diverse views on government spending, which is masked when we focus solely on Black partisanship.
Take Black Americans’ attitudes toward two issues for which they are often thought to have uniformly liberal preferences (especially in comparison to white people): crime and welfare. It turns out, Black public opinion is much more complex. On the question of whether spending on crime should be increased, decreased, or kept the same, 84 percent of Black respondents said that spending should be increased. And when asked the same about welfare spending, 28 percent of Black respondents agree that spending should be decreased while only 31 percent adopted the more liberal view that welfare spending should be increased.
This diversity in Black Americans’ preferences — not to mention the conservative bent on some of these key issues — suggests we should be wary of claims that the “Black community,” as a whole, supports any particular party’s policies.
What about Black Americans’ attitudes toward social issues that they’re perceived to hold liberal positions on, such as affirmative action and the death penalty? On the question of whether Black Americans should be given preferential treatment in hiring and promoting decisions, 51 percent of Black Americans oppose it (49 percent support it). Likewise with the death penalty, which disproportionately affects Black people, 37 percent of Black Americans support capital punishment for people convicted of murder. (Although 63 percent oppose it.)
So, why does this all matter?
First, as analysts of and participants in the American political system, we should have an accurate portrait of what the public desires. This point is even more important for elites interested in convincing Black Americans to support their candidacies. They must recognize disagreements that exist among Black voters if they are to build the broadest coalition of Black support. Second, reducing the politics of any group to a singular fact — even when that is partisanship or vote choice — limits our understanding of conflict, which is the essence of politics.
The key takeaway from our analysis is this: There is no “Black vote” and you should be skeptical of anyone who claims that there is some cohesive “Black community.”
To be sure, we’ve only presented a snapshot of the diversity of Black political thought; readers interested in learning more should read (or skim) a few key texts:
This is an incomplete list, to be sure, but anyone seriously interested in understanding the complexities of Black politics would do well to read these texts (and talk to some Black people).


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-07--VP Debates Usually Don’t Matter. But We’re Way Past Usual.

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight ’ s politics chat .
The transcript below has been lightly edited .
sarah ( Sarah Frostenson , politics editor ) : President Trump may still not be out of the woods with his coronavirus diagnosis — he is back at the White House now after three days at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center and still receiving treatment — but the vice presidential debate is moving ahead as planned .
There are a number of new precautions in place for the debate , too , given the renewed focus on the coronavirus , including a hotly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and no handshakes upon arrival .
We have less of an idea this time around about which topics Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Kamala Harris will debate , but without a doubt the coronavirus will be front and center — in fact , it might be hard for other topics to break through in the 90 minutes they have .
We know from our poll with Ipsos before the last presidential debate that the coronavirus is the most important issue to voters here in 2020 , and that most voters think Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do you see the conversation around the coronavirus playing out tonight ?
What will be Harris ’ s stance ?
Pence ’ s ?
This will be the issue tonight , right ?
meredithconroy ( Meredith Conroy , political science professor at California State University , San Bernardino , and FiveThirtyEight contributor ) : Yeah , Sarah , there ’ s little doubt that coronavirus will be the issue tonight .
After months of Trump trying to downplay the virus , Pence will be forced to grapple with it more directly , given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nrakich ( Nathaniel Rakich , elections analyst ) : I would be shocked if the debate doesn ’ t kick off with the coronavirus and spend a substantial amount of time on it .
And I am really curious to see whether the share of Americans who say that the coronavirus is the most important issue to them rises in our Ipsos poll .
I haven ’ t seen the new data yet , but it will be available to you , dear reader , on the live blog tonight !
Specifically , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the share of voters who back Trump and prioritize the coronavirus rises .
There was a big partisan split on the issue last time , with Democrats far more likely to say it was their top issue .
meredithconroy : That will be interesting to see .
I think it ’ s possible it is still below the economy for Republicans in the poll , though .
The administration hasn ’ t really changed its tune on the severity of the virus , despite the president ’ s diagnosis , right ?
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is even more reckless ?
nrakich : Right — in fact , the president has downplayed the severity of the virus in the last couple days , tweeting “ don ’ t be afraid of Covid ” and taking off his mask when he returned to the White House .
sarah : Does Pence lean into that messaging , then ?
nrakich : I kind of think he will try to walk it back .
Pence is kind of the ticket ’ s “ what the president meant to say was … ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Pence comes at this from a somewhat different position than Trump — he is charged with leading the White House Coronavirus Task Force .
I ’ m not sure that means he echoes guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , or corrects his boss ’ s recent tweets and messages , though .
In fact , perhaps foreshadowing what to expect , Pence ’ s spokesperson , Katie Miller , already chided Harris ’ s camp for asking for more precautions at the debate , saying , “ If Sen. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ herself , have at it.
” nrakich : A more interesting question might be , how hard does Harris attack Trump for this ?
She has a lot of material to work with ( e.g.
, not wearing a mask , not taking the proper precautions to prevent spread among White House staffers ) , but will it come off in bad taste ?
perry ( Perry Bacon Jr. , senior writer ) : Doesn ’ t seem too hard for Harris to say , “ I wish the president good health , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in dealing with the virus .
And I don ’ t expect Pence to walk back a ton of what Trump has said or done .
The kind of non-Trump Republican position on the coronavirus has been : “ We can ’ t shut down the country in fear of this virus , kids need to go to school , our economy can ’ t be closed , ” and I assume Pence will say versions of that throughout the debate .
It ’ s a more polite version of what Trump says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
nrakich : I don ’ t know about that , Perry .
The polls suggest people are really turned off by Trump ’ s blasé attitude toward the virus .
I think Pence will want to counter the perception that Trump isn ’ t taking it seriously — which by definition I think involves telling people to , well , “ worry about Covid ” ( though of course not in those exact words ) .
meredithconroy : I think it ’ s possible they ’ re past that now , Nathaniel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on downplaying the seriousness of the virus .
sarah : If anything , Pence might want to actively pivot away from conversation on the coronavirus as much as he can , because this is something Trump has consistently gotten poor marks on : nrakich : That would kind of be the strategy we saw at the Republican National Convention ?
Try to change the subject to something like the pre-pandemic roaring economy or democratic socialism .
It ’ s harder to do in a debate , though .
meredithconroy : Yes .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ focus on the coronavirus and those most affected by it .
Plus , she ’ s a good messenger for that .
More women than men are facing job losses , and Black communities account for a disproportionate number of deaths .
sarah : But if you ’ re Pence , maybe pivot to something like talk around an upcoming vaccine , or the upcoming Supreme Court nomination ?
meredithconroy : Speaking of messengers … Pence is a great spokesperson for the SCOTUS nomination , as a religious liberty conservative .
perry : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on COVID-19 will be bad for Trump-Pence .
So I would assume the moderator , to show balance , will harp on some subject that is designed to make Harris look bad .
My assumption is this will be about abolishing/defunding the police .
Also , Biden kind of non-answered on abolishing the filibuster and adding seats to the Supreme Court in the last debate , so I would assume that is a subject that Harris will be pushed on , too .
sarah : That ’ s a good point , Perry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debate around the Supreme Court could possibly back Harris into a corner , too , if Pence is adamant about the GOP ’ s timeline to confirm Amy Coney Barrett before the election , which might push Harris into saying something about increasing the number of justices on the court .
nrakich : Harris is also on the Senate Judiciary Committee and was a big Brett Kavanaugh opponent .
Pence may try to accuse her of obstructing Republican-appointed judges out of hand .
But again , the polls are not on Republicans ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Senate should wait until after the election to confirm a replacement for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg .
perry : Only 32 percent of Americans support adding justices to the Supreme Court , compared to 54 percent opposed , in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll .
At the same time , a 6-3 court might strike down Biden ’ s entire legislative agenda .
So I would assume Harris wants to stay vague on that issue , as Biden has .
nrakich : Why do you think they are being coy on that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ really get it .
Even in a dream Democratic scenario , there won ’ t be enough votes in the Senate to pack the court anyway .
And as Perry said , polling shows most people are opposed to it .
So saying “ we oppose court packing ” seems like the politically expedient answer .
perry : Because I think a 6-3 court will be open to striking down any Democratic legislation even on the flimsiest of grounds , so I think they have to keep the idea open .
nrakich : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t think court packing is high on voters ’ radar .
I just thought it was a weird unforced error by Biden to dodge the question at the last debate .
perry : The Democrats ’ actual position is probably closer to : “ A Supreme Court that strikes down Obamacare , Roe v. Wade and the Voting Rights Act with Barrett and Gorsuch in the majority is illegitimate , in our view , and we would take action to address that.
” I just don ’ t know if Harris @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : I ’ m surprised either candidate got in anything substantive in the last debate with all the interruptions .
But speaking of debates … even though we ’ re pretty skeptical that debates move the needle all that much ( although we did see a slight uptick for Biden following the first debate ) , do you think this debate might have more of an effect just given the uncertainty around the last two debates actually happening ?
Trump has said he plans to debate next week , but is it possible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him because of his diagnosis ?
nrakich : I don ’ t see next week ’ s debate happening as planned .
If Trump insists on going , I don ’ t think Biden will go .
I do think that makes today ’ s debate more important than a vice-presidential debate usually is ( which is not very important ) .
Also , I think Trump ’ s diagnosis has highlighted , erm , shall I say , the fragility of both presidential candidates , which might have voters taking a closer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perry : I am really skeptical the debate commission stops the sitting president from debating .
The people in charge of these debates didn ’ t force his staff to wear masks or stop him from interrupting every 10 seconds in the last debate .
sarah : But at the very least , they ’ ll make him take a COVID-19 test and if it comes back positive … I think they ’ d have to stop him , or at least that ’ s what their guidelines seem to suggest .
perry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have the power to make the sitting president take a COVID-19 test and reveal the results .
I might be wrong .
But this is a really interesting test of power .
And I think Trump will not back down .
meredithconroy : I don ’ t want to speculate , but depending on Trump ’ s health , he may hope they do cancel the debate .
We ’ ll just have to wait and see .
But another reason this debate might be more important than a typical VP debate is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ right now , right ?
sarah : Or more seriously considering who is in the No .
2 role ?
nrakich : Not sure about that , Meredith .
The TV ratings for the first debate were down from 2016 , just like they were for the conventions .
( Insert obligatory caveat about how TV ratings are falling across the board and it ’ s possible people just switched from watching the debate on TV to streaming it online . )
perry : So focusing on this debate , I actually think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these polls have Trump in the low 40s , down by double digits .
I assume that means some GOP-leaning voters are undecided right now .
So if Pence kind of reminds those people that they really hate the Democrats , even if they aren ’ t that into Trump , that is helpful for the GOP side .
meredithconroy : Yeah , I think that ’ s a possibility , Perry .
I think a lot of people — maybe more moderate people or the less politically engaged — came away from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was chaos , and American politics is a mess , ” but not necessarily attributing the chaos to the instigator ( Trump ) .
If Pence can assuage those feelings , I think people on the fence might , for now , stay on the fence instead of deciding to stay home or vote for Biden .
sarah : Trump ’ s approval rating has slowly been ticking back up , too , even though his standing in the national polls hasn ’ t improved … How do you take into account Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his standing in the horse race ?
Is this some of the upside Pence could possibly tap into tonight ?
nrakich : We at FiveThirtyEight are skeptical about weighting polls by partisanship , but it ’ s at least possible there ’ s a touch of nonresponse bias ( i.e.
, demoralized Republicans don ’ t want to take polls right now ) in the polls immediately following the first debate .
So a more , er , conventional performance by Pence could correct that .
But I wouldn ’ t read too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
We ’ re less than a month until the election ; head-to-head polls have fully come into their predictive power .
Plus , it ’ s not like Trump ’ s approval rating has improved to 50 percent or even 45 percent .
It ’ s at 43 percent — right around where it ’ s been for most of his term .
sarah : OK , to wrap .
Tonight we see the other half of the ticket .
What case does Harris need to make for Biden-Harris ?
And what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump-Pence ?
perry : Biden is winning .
Harris ’ s job is to do no harm .
To me , Pence can ’ t fully explain away Trump ’ s handling of COVID-19 .
So he needs to hammer other issues ( the police , the Supreme Court , taxes ) where Republicans are stronger .
nrakich : I don ’ t think voters decide who to vote for based on the bottom half of the ticket .
So I think Pence and Harris need to successfully argue that their running mates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But voters already know Trump and Biden so well — very , very few have no opinion of them in polls — that I ’ m not sure the candidates can say anything to change their minds .
Honestly , maybe what Pence needs to do is create some highly newsworthy moment that distracts from what is frankly a terrible news cycle right now for Trump .
meredithconroy : Ha !
Interesting theory , Nathaniel .
But has Pence ever driven the news cycle ?
I anticipate that Pence will use the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far/radical left , ” like Trump attempted to do to Biden in the debate last week .
And I am going to risk being very wrong and speculate that Pence also doubles down on Trump ’ s recent messages around the coronavirus and tries to play down its seriousness .
nrakich : “ But has Pence ever driven the news cycle ?
” – > No .

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): President Trump may still not be out of the woods with his coronavirus diagnosis — he is back at the White House now after three days at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center and still receiving treatment — but the vice presidential debate is moving ahead as planned.
There are a number of new precautions in place for the debate, too, given the renewed focus on the coronavirus, including a hotly disputed plexiglass barrier to separate the candidates and no handshakes upon arrival.
We have less of an idea this time around about which topics Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Kamala Harris will debate, but without a doubt the coronavirus will be front and center — in fact, it might be hard for other topics to break through in the 90 minutes they have.
So let’s start there.
We know from our poll with Ipsos before the last presidential debate that the coronavirus is the most important issue to voters here in 2020, and that most voters think Biden is better on the issue.
On COVID-19, almost everyone prefers Biden Share of people who named each issue as the most important one facing the U.S., and whether they think Trump or Biden would handle that issue better, according to a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll Who’s better on the issue… issue share TRUMP biden COVID-19 31.7% 19.5% – 78.8% – The economy 21.6 79.1 – 19.6 – Health care 7.9 22.0 – 76.1 – Racial inequality 7.4 8.4 – 86.6 – Climate change 5.2 2.6 – 96.4 – Violent crime 4.8 79.3 – 17.7 – The Supreme Court 4.5 50.7 – 47.8 – Economic inequality 3.0 15.1 – 76.8 – Immigration 2.8 70.1 – 29.9 – Education 2.6 52.1 – 45.9 – Abortion 2.3 96.0 – 2.1 – Gun policy 1.9 66.9 – 30.3 – Other 1.6 55.1 – 43.5 – Respondents who didn’t name a top issue are not shown. Data comes from polling done by Ipsos for FiveThirtyEight, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, a probability-based online panel that is recruited to be representative of the U.S. population. The poll was conducted Sept. 21-28 among a general population sample of adults, with 3,133 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 1.9 percentage points.
How do you see the conversation around the coronavirus playing out tonight? What will be Harris’s stance? Pence’s? This will be the issue tonight, right?
meredithconroy (Meredith Conroy, political science professor at California State University, San Bernardino, and FiveThirtyEight contributor): Yeah, Sarah, there’s little doubt that coronavirus will be the issue tonight. After months of Trump trying to downplay the virus, Pence will be forced to grapple with it more directly, given the president’s recent diagnosis.
nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): I would be shocked if the debate doesn’t kick off with the coronavirus and spend a substantial amount of time on it. And I am really curious to see whether the share of Americans who say that the coronavirus is the most important issue to them rises in our Ipsos poll. I haven’t seen the new data yet, but it will be available to you, dear reader, on the live blog tonight!
Specifically, I’m curious to see whether the share of voters who back Trump and prioritize the coronavirus rises. There was a big partisan split on the issue last time, with Democrats far more likely to say it was their top issue.
meredithconroy: That will be interesting to see. I think it’s possible it is still below the economy for Republicans in the poll, though. The administration hasn’t really changed its tune on the severity of the virus, despite the president’s diagnosis, right? In fact, you could argue their messaging is even more reckless?
nrakich: Right — in fact, the president has downplayed the severity of the virus in the last couple days, tweeting “don’t be afraid of Covid” and taking off his mask when he returned to the White House.
sarah: Does Pence lean into that messaging, then?
nrakich: I kind of think he will try to walk it back. Pence is kind of the ticket’s “what the president meant to say was …” ambassador.
meredithconroy: Right. And Pence comes at this from a somewhat different position than Trump — he is charged with leading the White House Coronavirus Task Force. I’m not sure that means he echoes guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or corrects his boss’s recent tweets and messages, though.
In fact, perhaps foreshadowing what to expect, Pence’s spokesperson, Katie Miller, already chided Harris’s camp for asking for more precautions at the debate, saying, “If Sen. Harris wants to use a fortress around herself, have at it.”
nrakich: A more interesting question might be, how hard does Harris attack Trump for this? She has a lot of material to work with (e.g., not wearing a mask, not taking the proper precautions to prevent spread among White House staffers), but will it come off in bad taste?
perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): Doesn’t seem too hard for Harris to say, “I wish the president good health,” but then harp on his failures in dealing with the virus.
And I don’t expect Pence to walk back a ton of what Trump has said or done. The kind of non-Trump Republican position on the coronavirus has been: “We can’t shut down the country in fear of this virus, kids need to go to school, our economy can’t be closed,” and I assume Pence will say versions of that throughout the debate. It’s a more polite version of what Trump says, but not necessarily all that different.
meredithconroy: Yeah. I think you’re right, Perry.
nrakich: I don’t know about that, Perry. The polls suggest people are really turned off by Trump’s blasé attitude toward the virus.
I think Pence will want to counter the perception that Trump isn’t taking it seriously — which by definition I think involves telling people to, well, “worry about Covid” (though of course not in those exact words).
meredithconroy: I think it’s possible they’re past that now, Nathaniel, given that Trump is doubling down on downplaying the seriousness of the virus.
sarah: If anything, Pence might want to actively pivot away from conversation on the coronavirus as much as he can, because this is something Trump has consistently gotten poor marks on:
nrakich: That would kind of be the strategy we saw at the Republican National Convention? Try to change the subject to something like the pre-pandemic roaring economy or democratic socialism. It’s harder to do in a debate, though.
meredithconroy: Yes. I think Harris would want to keep the focus on the coronavirus and those most affected by it. Plus, she’s a good messenger for that. More women than men are facing job losses, and Black communities account for a disproportionate number of deaths.
sarah: But if you’re Pence, maybe pivot to something like talk around an upcoming vaccine, or the upcoming Supreme Court nomination?
meredithconroy: Speaking of messengers … Pence is a great spokesperson for the SCOTUS nomination, as a religious liberty conservative.
perry: A debate with a lot of focus on COVID-19 will be bad for Trump-Pence. So I would assume the moderator, to show balance, will harp on some subject that is designed to make Harris look bad. My assumption is this will be about abolishing/defunding the police. Also, Biden kind of non-answered on abolishing the filibuster and adding seats to the Supreme Court in the last debate, so I would assume that is a subject that Harris will be pushed on, too.
sarah: That’s a good point, Perry. And I can see how a debate around the Supreme Court could possibly back Harris into a corner, too, if Pence is adamant about the GOP’s timeline to confirm Amy Coney Barrett before the election, which might push Harris into saying something about increasing the number of justices on the court.
nrakich: Harris is also on the Senate Judiciary Committee and was a big Brett Kavanaugh opponent. Pence may try to accuse her of obstructing Republican-appointed judges out of hand.
But again, the polls are not on Republicans’ side here. Most Americans think the Senate should wait until after the election to confirm a replacement for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
perry: Only 32 percent of Americans support adding justices to the Supreme Court, compared to 54 percent opposed, in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll. At the same time, a 6-3 court might strike down Biden’s entire legislative agenda. So I would assume Harris wants to stay vague on that issue, as Biden has.
nrakich: Why do you think they are being coy on that, Perry? I don’t really get it.
Even in a dream Democratic scenario, there won’t be enough votes in the Senate to pack the court anyway. And as Perry said, polling shows most people are opposed to it. So saying “we oppose court packing” seems like the politically expedient answer.
perry: Because I think a 6-3 court will be open to striking down any Democratic legislation even on the flimsiest of grounds, so I think they have to keep the idea open.
nrakich: That’s fair. And I don’t think court packing is high on voters’ radar. I just thought it was a weird unforced error by Biden to dodge the question at the last debate.
perry: The Democrats’ actual position is probably closer to: “A Supreme Court that strikes down Obamacare, Roe v. Wade and the Voting Rights Act with Barrett and Gorsuch in the majority is illegitimate, in our view, and we would take action to address that.” I just don’t know if Harris can say that right now.
sarah: I’m surprised either candidate got in anything substantive in the last debate with all the interruptions. But speaking of debates … even though we’re pretty skeptical that debates move the needle all that much (although we did see a slight uptick for Biden following the first debate), do you think this debate might have more of an effect just given the uncertainty around the last two debates actually happening?
Trump has said he plans to debate next week, but is it possible the debate commission won’t let him because of his diagnosis?
nrakich: I don’t see next week’s debate happening as planned. If Trump insists on going, I don’t think Biden will go.
I do think that makes today’s debate more important than a vice-presidential debate usually is (which is not very important).
Also, I think Trump’s diagnosis has highlighted, erm, shall I say, the fragility of both presidential candidates, which might have voters taking a closer look at their No. 2s.
perry: I am really skeptical the debate commission stops the sitting president from debating. The people in charge of these debates didn’t force his staff to wear masks or stop him from interrupting every 10 seconds in the last debate.
sarah: But at the very least, they’ll make him take a COVID-19 test and if it comes back positive … I think they’d have to stop him, or at least that’s what their guidelines seem to suggest.
perry: I don’t think they have the power to make the sitting president take a COVID-19 test and reveal the results. I might be wrong. But this is a really interesting test of power.
And I think Trump will not back down.
meredithconroy: I don’t want to speculate, but depending on Trump’s health, he may hope they do cancel the debate. We’ll just have to wait and see.
But another reason this debate might be more important than a typical VP debate is simply that more people are paying attention right now, right?
sarah: Or more seriously considering who is in the No. 2 role?
nrakich: Not sure about that, Meredith. The TV ratings for the first debate were down from 2016, just like they were for the conventions. (Insert obligatory caveat about how TV ratings are falling across the board and it’s possible people just switched from watching the debate on TV to streaming it online.)
perry: So focusing on this debate, I actually think this debate matters electorally. Some of these polls have Trump in the low 40s, down by double digits. I assume that means some GOP-leaning voters are undecided right now. So if Pence kind of reminds those people that they really hate the Democrats, even if they aren’t that into Trump, that is helpful for the GOP side.
meredithconroy: Yeah, I think that’s a possibility, Perry. I think a lot of people — maybe more moderate people or the less politically engaged — came away from that first debate saying “Wow that was chaos, and American politics is a mess,” but not necessarily attributing the chaos to the instigator (Trump). If Pence can assuage those feelings, I think people on the fence might, for now, stay on the fence instead of deciding to stay home or vote for Biden.
sarah: Trump’s approval rating has slowly been ticking back up, too, even though his standing in the national polls hasn’t improved …
How do you take into account Trump’s approval rating when thinking about his standing in the horse race? Is this some of the upside Pence could possibly tap into tonight?
nrakich: We at FiveThirtyEight are skeptical about weighting polls by partisanship, but it’s at least possible there’s a touch of nonresponse bias (i.e., demoralized Republicans don’t want to take polls right now) in the polls immediately following the first debate.
Do you hear that sound? It’s the partisan non-response alarm going off https://t.co/0ENKBW2kov — G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) October 6, 2020
So a more, er, conventional performance by Pence could correct that.
But I wouldn’t read too much into Trump’s approval rating. We’re less than a month until the election; head-to-head polls have fully come into their predictive power. Plus, it’s not like Trump’s approval rating has improved to 50 percent or even 45 percent. It’s at 43 percent — right around where it’s been for most of his term.
sarah: OK, to wrap. Tonight we see the other half of the ticket. What case does Harris need to make for Biden-Harris? And what case does Pence need to make for Trump-Pence?
perry: Biden is winning. Harris’s job is to do no harm. To me, Pence can’t fully explain away Trump’s handling of COVID-19. So he needs to hammer other issues (the police, the Supreme Court, taxes) where Republicans are stronger.
nrakich: I don’t think voters decide who to vote for based on the bottom half of the ticket. So I think Pence and Harris need to successfully argue that their running mates are the best choice for the country.
But voters already know Trump and Biden so well — very, very few have no opinion of them in polls — that I’m not sure the candidates can say anything to change their minds. Honestly, maybe what Pence needs to do is create some highly newsworthy moment that distracts from what is frankly a terrible news cycle right now for Trump.
meredithconroy: Ha! Interesting theory, Nathaniel. But has Pence ever driven the news cycle?
I anticipate that Pence will use the debate to tie Harris to the “far/radical left,” like Trump attempted to do to Biden in the debate last week. And I am going to risk being very wrong and speculate that Pence also doubles down on Trump’s recent messages around the coronavirus and tries to play down its seriousness.
nrakich: “But has Pence ever driven the news cycle?” –> No.
And that’s the ballgame.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-07--What To Watch For During The Vice Presidential Debate

Members of the FiveThirtyEight politics crew discuss what they ’ ll be paying attention to during tonight ’ s debate @ @ @ @ @ debate more important than it has been in previous years , given the age of @ @ @ @ @ threat of COVID-19 ?

Members of the FiveThirtyEight politics crew discuss what they’ll be paying attention to during tonight’s debate. Is the vice presidential debate more important than it has been in previous years, given the age of the presidential candidates and the threat of COVID-19?


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-07--Vice Presidential Debate, Harris vs. Pence: Live Updates

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fivethirtyeight--2020-10-07--The President Took A Rare Combination Of COVID-19 Drugs. Will It Help?

After testing positive for COVID-19 last week , President Trump was given three drugs in various phases of testing : @ @ @ @ @ and a steroid .
On this week ’ s episode of PODCAST-19 , we discuss @ @ @ @ @ are combined and why the average American can ’ t expect to receive the same @ @ @ @ @ want to miss an episode of PODCAST-19 , FiveThirtyEight ’ s weekly look at what @ @ @ @ @ we know we don ’ t know — about COVID-19 ?
Subscribe on your favorite @ @ @ @ @ , here ’ s where to do it on Apple Podcasts and Spotify .

After testing positive for COVID-19 last week, President Trump was given three drugs in various phases of testing: an antiviral, monoclonal antibodies and a steroid. On this week’s episode of PODCAST-19, we discuss what happens when all three are combined and why the average American can’t expect to receive the same treatment.
Don’t want to miss an episode of PODCAST-19, FiveThirtyEight’s weekly look at what we know — and what we know we don’t know — about COVID-19? Subscribe on your favorite podcasting app. For example, here’s where to do it on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-07--Biden Got Some Of His Best Polls This Week

After Democrats ’ great midterm election , the 2020 election could be a second consecutive Democratic wave .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s forecasts , Joe Biden has an 84 in 100 chance of winning the presidential election , Democrats have a 68 in 100 chance of flipping the Senate and the party has a 94 in 100 chance of keeping the House .
Altogether , there ’ s a 65 in 100 chance that Democrats will have full control of the federal government next year .
Democrats ’ hopes — and Republicans ’ fears — for another blue wave @ @ @ @ @ @ @ several polls that were among Biden ’ s best of the entire year .
It ’ s hard to tell exactly why this is happening given all the news of the past couple weeks , but no matter how you slice it , it ’ s not good for President Trump .
For instance , a national poll from CNN/SSRS gave Biden an eye-popping 16-point lead among likely voters .
Monmouth University also gave Biden an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania in a high-turnout scenario and an 8-point lead in a low-turnout scenario .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ own Pennsylvania poll showing Biden up by 13 points , and added a Biden+11 Florida poll and a Biden+5 Iowa poll for good measure .
At the same time , some other high-quality pollsters produced more subdued results in a few key swing states , although they hardly qualify as good news for Trump .
Siena College/New York Times Upshot put Biden at 45 percent and Trump at 44 percent in Ohio and gave Biden a 6-point edge in Nevada .
And Marquette Law School , polling its home state of Wisconsin , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Trump 42 percent .
Those results in Ohio and Wisconsin are especially significant given Trump probably needs to win them in order to secure a second term .
What to make of all these polls ?
Throw them in an average , of course .
And FiveThirtyEight ’ s polling averages do suggest that Biden is widening his lead , although the degree varies depending on which state you look at .
( Nationally , though , Biden has gone from a 7.3-point polling edge two weeks ago to a 9.4-point lead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is that , spurred by the Quinnipiac polls , Biden ’ s lead has increased the most ( from 1.6 points to 4.6 points ) in Florida , which was previously one of the few bright spots on the map for Trump .
Biden has also further cemented his lead in Pennsylvania ( where it went from 4.6 points to 6.9 points ) and in swingy but oft-forgotten New Hampshire ( thanks to several polls over the last couple weeks that have consistently given Biden an 8- to 12-point lead there ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t seen the same kind of shift , including Michigan and Wisconsin , whose demographics are similar to Pennsylvania ’ s yet whose polling has not seemed to improve for Biden .
However , the fact that Michigan and Wisconsin polling has stayed still while Pennsylvania ’ s has zagged toward Biden has brought its polling average more in line with those two states ’ — right around Biden+7 or Biden+8 .
So the recent movement in Pennsylvania may just be correcting an anomaly from August and September when Pennsylvania polls were oddly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his polling bump , Biden ’ s odds of winning are up , too .
Here is a graph of our national forecast over time : And here ’ s how the race has changed in Pennsylvania , the likeliest tipping-point state in the Electoral College : Before you overreact to these trends , though , remember that momentum doesn ’ t exist in general elections .
This could be the beginning of Biden running away with the election … or it could be a temporary , post-debate sugar high for Biden .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Hillary Clinton had an average 6.9-point national polling lead and an 88 in 100 chance to win the election on Oct. 17 , 2016 — at the height of the anti-Trump backlash after the Access Hollywood tape — but fell back down to 3.9 points and a 71 in 100 chance by Election Day .
Historically , trends are just as likely to revert to the mean as they are to continue .
That said , “ reverting to the mean ” this year might mean returning to the 7-point or so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — and if he maintains that kind of lead on Election Day , he ’ ll be an overwhelming favorite to win the election , even with Trump ’ s Electoral College advantage .
In addition , because the pandemic has increased the popularity of mail voting , people are voting earlier than ever this year — at least 5.6 million votes have already been cast nationwide .
So that throws yet another wrench into the equation : Even if there ’ s a sudden tightening in the last week or two before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as much as it did in 2016 — a large chunk of votes will already have been banked at a time when Biden was flying high .

Biden Got Some Of His Best Polls This Week His lead over Trump is widening, but will it last?
After Democrats’ great midterm election, the 2020 election could be a second consecutive Democratic wave. According to FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts, Joe Biden has an 84 in 100 chance of winning the presidential election, Democrats have a 68 in 100 chance of flipping the Senate and the party has a 94 in 100 chance of keeping the House. Altogether, there’s a 65 in 100 chance that Democrats will have full control of the federal government next year.
Democrats’ hopes — and Republicans’ fears — for another blue wave grew this week with the release of several polls that were among Biden’s best of the entire year. It’s hard to tell exactly why this is happening given all the news of the past couple weeks, but no matter how you slice it, it’s not good for President Trump. For instance, a national poll from CNN/SSRS gave Biden an eye-popping 16-point lead among likely voters. Monmouth University also gave Biden an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania in a high-turnout scenario and an 8-point lead in a low-turnout scenario. Quinnipiac University backed that up with its own Pennsylvania poll showing Biden up by 13 points, and added a Biden+11 Florida poll and a Biden+5 Iowa poll for good measure.
At the same time, some other high-quality pollsters produced more subdued results in a few key swing states, although they hardly qualify as good news for Trump. Siena College/New York Times Upshot put Biden at 45 percent and Trump at 44 percent in Ohio and gave Biden a 6-point edge in Nevada. And Marquette Law School, polling its home state of Wisconsin, returned a result of Biden 47 percent, Trump 42 percent. Those results in Ohio and Wisconsin are especially significant given Trump probably needs to win them in order to secure a second term.
Trump has 3 big problems heading toward Election Day | FiveThirtyEight
What to make of all these polls? Throw them in an average, of course. And FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages do suggest that Biden is widening his lead, although the degree varies depending on which state you look at. (Nationally, though, Biden has gone from a 7.3-point polling edge two weeks ago to a 9.4-point lead today.)
Biden is gaining in a number of battleground states How FiveThirtyEight’s polling average changed in the last two weeks, nationally and in key swing states Polling Average on… State Sept. 23 Oct. 7 Change Florida D+1.6 D+4.6 D+3.0 New Hampshire D+6.9 D+9.8 D+2.9 Pennsylvania D+4.6 D+6.9 D+2.3 Georgia R+1.1 D+1.0 D+2.1 Iowa R+1.0 D+0.9 D+1.9 Ohio R+1.0 D+0.7 D+1.7 North Carolina D+1.2 D+2.3 D+1.1 Nevada D+5.8 D+6.6 D+0.8 Arizona D+3.8 D+4.4 D+0.6 Minnesota D+9.2 D+9.5 D+0.3 Michigan D+7.4 D+7.7 D+0.3 Wisconsin D+6.8 D+6.9 D+0.1 Texas R+0.7 R+1.5 R+0.8 National D+7.3 D+9.4 D+2.1 Source: Polls
The topline takeaway from this is that, spurred by the Quinnipiac polls, Biden’s lead has increased the most (from 1.6 points to 4.6 points) in Florida, which was previously one of the few bright spots on the map for Trump.
Biden has also further cemented his lead in Pennsylvania (where it went from 4.6 points to 6.9 points) and in swingy but oft-forgotten New Hampshire (thanks to several polls over the last couple weeks that have consistently given Biden an 8- to 12-point lead there).
However, several states haven’t seen the same kind of shift, including Michigan and Wisconsin, whose demographics are similar to Pennsylvania’s yet whose polling has not seemed to improve for Biden. However, the fact that Michigan and Wisconsin polling has stayed still while Pennsylvania’s has zagged toward Biden has brought its polling average more in line with those two states’ — right around Biden+7 or Biden+8. So the recent movement in Pennsylvania may just be correcting an anomaly from August and September when Pennsylvania polls were oddly weak for Biden.
In tandem with his polling bump, Biden’s odds of winning are up, too. Here is a graph of our national forecast over time:
And here’s how the race has changed in Pennsylvania, the likeliest tipping-point state in the Electoral College:
Before you overreact to these trends, though, remember that momentum doesn’t exist in general elections. This could be the beginning of Biden running away with the election … or it could be a temporary, post-debate sugar high for Biden. To take a high-profile, recent example, Hillary Clinton had an average 6.9-point national polling lead and an 88 in 100 chance to win the election on Oct. 17, 2016 — at the height of the anti-Trump backlash after the Access Hollywood tape — but fell back down to 3.9 points and a 71 in 100 chance by Election Day. Historically, trends are just as likely to revert to the mean as they are to continue.
That said, “reverting to the mean” this year might mean returning to the 7-point or so national lead that Biden held throughout September — and if he maintains that kind of lead on Election Day, he’ll be an overwhelming favorite to win the election, even with Trump’s Electoral College advantage.
In addition, because the pandemic has increased the popularity of mail voting, people are voting earlier than ever this year — at least 5.6 million votes have already been cast nationwide. So that throws yet another wrench into the equation: Even if there’s a sudden tightening in the last week or two before the election, it may not matter as much as it did in 2016 — a large chunk of votes will already have been banked at a time when Biden was flying high.


fivethirtyeight--2020-10-07--Trump Has Three Big Problems Heading Toward Election Day

President Trump has fallen further behind Joe Biden in the polls .
According to FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver , Trump @ @ @ @ @ him back .

President Trump has fallen further behind Joe Biden in the polls. According to FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver, Trump has three main problems holding him back.