fivethirtyeight--2020-03-10--3 Ways The Next 2 Weeks Could Go: Even The Best Case Scenario For Sanders Doesn’t Look So Great

Our primary model is now extremely confident that former Vice President Joe Biden will win a majority of pledged delegates .
There are some contingencies that the model doesn ’ t account for — for instance , Biden unexpectedly dropping out for health reasons ( the model assumes the delegate leader never drops out ) or the primary calendar being radically restructured because of precautions that states are taking around coronavirus .
But our model is saying that so long as anything remotely resembling normal operations continues , Biden is very likely to win .
If that confidence seems misplaced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forecasts are usually more conservative than other statistical algorithms — it may be because Biden ’ s ascent has been so rapid that it ’ s hard to entirely grasp its scope .
Biden ’ s rise in national polls over the past two weeks — from 15.4 percent on Feb. 24 to 51.7 percent today — has been perhaps the fastest in the history of the primaries .
He has massive polling leads in states all over the map that were once expected to be competitive .
But it ’ s also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ model .
What if Sen. Bernie Sanders substantially beats our forecasts ?
Could the race look more competitive then ?
As a baseline , let ’ s start with what happens if the model ’ s projections are exactly right in every state and territory up through Georgia , which votes in two weeks from now on March 24 .
( Note that this scenario will look slightly different from our final forecast , because it ’ s deterministic — it assumes our projections are exactly right to the decimal place — while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) Unless something big changes , things will get very out of hand for Sanders very soon .
In states that have already voted , he currently trails Biden by around 80 delegates based on results as reported as of this morning .
( That deficit that may expand as California continues counting its vote — late-counted ballots have been more favorable for Biden than the ones counted on election night — but leave that aside for now . )
Then , if our projections are exactly right tonight , Biden would net @ @ @ @ @ @ @ delegates ahead overall .
But still bigger problems await Sanders in the March 17 states and in Georgia on March 24 .
These states have huge numbers of delegates and some of them — Florida and Georgia in particular — are projected as big Biden wins .
The model currently has Biden gaining a net of 226 delegates on Sanders in the states and territories that vote from March 14 through March 24 .
That would give Biden an advantage of 391 delegates — which would be essentially insurmountable barring extraordinary contingencies .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent of the remaining delegates from that point forward to claim a majority of pledged delegates , which would equate to beating Biden by 35 or 40 percentage points in the remaining states .
A delegate plurality would be almost-as-daunting , requiring Sanders win 64 percent of the remaining delegate haul .
Unlike the past couple of times we ’ ve run these scenarios , I ’ m not going to bother running any upside cases for Biden because the base case is already so good for him .
But it is worth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Suppose that Sanders beats our projections by a net of 10 percentage points in all contests through March 24 , including tonight .
So , for example , instead of losing Washington by 3 percentage points , as our forecast shows , he wins it by 7 points .
Here ’ s how the delegate math would work out under this scenario : That is actually … not all that much better for Sanders .
He ’ d still be 269 delegates behind Biden after Georgia finishes voting , and would need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remaining states to claim a majority , or about 60 percent of them for a plurality .
So even if polls and projections are 10 points too high on Biden , Sanders would still be a major underdog in the race .
Sanders wouldn ’ t necessarily win many more states under this scenario either .
A 10-point swing toward Sanders would only be enough to flip Washington and Democrats Abroad and tie the projected delegate count in the Northern Mariana Islands .
( As an aside , our model doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ territories and is probably underrating Sanders in Democrats Abroad — I ’ d bet on him winning it even though our model says otherwise .
But other than Puerto Rico , the territories don ’ t have enough delegates to really make a difference . )
So let ’ s get more creative in helping Sanders .
Let ’ s say Sanders beats his projections by 10 points tonight … except in Michigan , where he beats the forecast by 24 points and narrowly wins the state !
( Hey , it happened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Sanders gets a big bounce in the remaining contests over the next two weeks , beating our projections by 20 percentage points in all of them , except in Florida and Arizona where the presence of a large amount of early voting curbs his gains to 15 points .
Here ’ s what that scenario looks like : Even with this massive overperformance , Sanders would … still be losing ground to Biden !
He ’ d lose a net of nine delegates tonight and then another 94 in the rest of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 183 delegates behind Biden after March 24 .
Sanders would then need to win 61 percent of the remaining delegates after Georgia to eventually claim a majority of pledged delegates , or 57 percent of them for a plurality .
Also , note that even in this massive surge scenario , Sanders might not actually win all that many states , because Biden ’ s lead exceeds 20 points in states like Florida , Georgia and Ohio , which would give him enough of a buffer to withstand a 20-point Sanders surge .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ be interesting — especially with a more favorable set of states for Sanders like Wisconsin set to vote in early April — it might not actually be all that competitive .
Instead , it might resemble the 2008 nomination race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton , with Biden in Obama ’ s position .
In that race , the candidates traded wins throughout the second half of the primary calendar , leading to massive shifts in the media narrative .
But Clinton never came especially close to overcoming the delegate advantage that @ @ @ @ @ @ @

3 Ways The Next 2 Weeks Could Go: Even The Best Case Scenario For Sanders Doesn’t Look So Great
Our primary model is now extremely confident that former Vice President Joe Biden will win a majority of pledged delegates. There are some contingencies that the model doesn’t account for — for instance, Biden unexpectedly dropping out for health reasons (the model assumes the delegate leader never drops out) or the primary calendar being radically restructured because of precautions that states are taking around coronavirus. But our model is saying that so long as anything remotely resembling normal operations continues, Biden is very likely to win.
If that confidence seems misplaced — and keep in mind, our forecasts are usually more conservative than other statistical algorithms — it may be because Biden’s ascent has been so rapid that it’s hard to entirely grasp its scope. Biden’s rise in national polls over the past two weeks — from 15.4 percent on Feb. 24 to 51.7 percent today — has been perhaps the fastest in the history of the primaries. He has massive polling leads in states all over the map that were once expected to be competitive.
But it’s also worth performing a stress test on the model. What if Sen. Bernie Sanders substantially beats our forecasts? Could the race look more competitive then?
As a baseline, let’s start with what happens if the model’s projections are exactly right in every state and territory up through Georgia, which votes in two weeks from now on March 24. (Note that this scenario will look slightly different from our final forecast, because it’s deterministic — it assumes our projections are exactly right to the decimal place — while the full-fledged model accounts for uncertainty.)
Scenario 1: FiveThirtyEight’s projections are spot-on Delegate projections for March 10 through 24, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast as of 9:00 a.m. Eastern on March 10 Date State Biden Sanders others 3/10 Michigan 77 48 0 3/10 Washington 48 41 0 3/10 Missouri 45 23 0 3/10 Mississippi 28 8 0 3/10 Idaho 11 9 0 3/10 North Dakota 9 5 0 3/10 Democrats Abroad 7 6 0 3/14 Northern Mariana Islands 4 2 0 3/17 Florida 152 67 0 3/17 Illinois 100 55 0 3/17 Ohio 85 51 0 3/17 Arizona 42 25 0 3/24 Georgia 74 31 0 Period Biden Sanders others Pre-March 10 total 720 640 139 March 10 total 225 140 0 3/14 – 3/24 total 457 231 0 Grand delegate total through 3/24 1402 1011 139
Unless something big changes, things will get very out of hand for Sanders very soon. In states that have already voted, he currently trails Biden by around 80 delegates based on results as reported as of this morning. (That deficit that may expand as California continues counting its vote — late-counted ballots have been more favorable for Biden than the ones counted on election night — but leave that aside for now.) Then, if our projections are exactly right tonight, Biden would net another 85 delegates, putting him 165 delegates ahead overall.
But still bigger problems await Sanders in the March 17 states and in Georgia on March 24. These states have huge numbers of delegates and some of them — Florida and Georgia in particular — are projected as big Biden wins. The model currently has Biden gaining a net of 226 delegates on Sanders in the states and territories that vote from March 14 through March 24.
That would give Biden an advantage of 391 delegates — which would be essentially insurmountable barring extraordinary contingencies. Sanders would have to win around 69 percent of the remaining delegates from that point forward to claim a majority of pledged delegates, which would equate to beating Biden by 35 or 40 percentage points in the remaining states. A delegate plurality would be almost-as-daunting, requiring Sanders win 64 percent of the remaining delegate haul.
Unlike the past couple of times we’ve run these scenarios, I’m not going to bother running any upside cases for Biden because the base case is already so good for him.
But it is worth looking at some Sanders upside cases. Suppose that Sanders beats our projections by a net of 10 percentage points in all contests through March 24, including tonight. So, for example, instead of losing Washington by 3 percentage points, as our forecast shows, he wins it by 7 points. Here’s how the delegate math would work out under this scenario:
Scenario 2: Sanders beats our projections by 10 points Delegate projections with a net of 10 percentage points added to Sanders’s projected vote share in all contests, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast as of 9:00 a.m. Eastern on March 10 Date State Biden Sanders others 3/10 Michigan 71 54 0 3/10 Washington 40 49 0 3/10 Missouri 40 28 0 3/10 Mississippi 23 13 0 3/10 Idaho 11 9 0 3/10 North Dakota 8 6 0 3/10 Democrats Abroad 6 7 0 3/14 Northern Marianas 3 3 0 3/17 Florida 145 74 0 3/17 Illinois 92 63 0 3/17 Ohio 74 62 0 3/17 Arizona 38 29 0 3/24 Georgia 70 35 0 Period Biden Sanders others Pre-March 10 total 720 640 139 March 10 total 199 166 0 3/14 – 3/24 total 422 266 0 Grand delegate total through 3/24 1341 1072 139
That is actually … not all that much better for Sanders. He’d still be 269 delegates behind Biden after Georgia finishes voting, and would need to win 64 percent of delegates in the remaining states to claim a majority, or about 60 percent of them for a plurality. So even if polls and projections are 10 points too high on Biden, Sanders would still be a major underdog in the race.
Sanders wouldn’t necessarily win many more states under this scenario either. A 10-point swing toward Sanders would only be enough to flip Washington and Democrats Abroad and tie the projected delegate count in the Northern Mariana Islands. (As an aside, our model doesn’t really know what to do with the territories and is probably underrating Sanders in Democrats Abroad — I’d bet on him winning it even though our model says otherwise. But other than Puerto Rico, the territories don’t have enough delegates to really make a difference.)
So let’s get more creative in helping Sanders. Let’s say Sanders beats his projections by 10 points tonight … except in Michigan, where he beats the forecast by 24 points and narrowly wins the state! (Hey, it happened in 2016!) As a result, Sanders gets a big bounce in the remaining contests over the next two weeks, beating our projections by 20 percentage points in all of them, except in Florida and Arizona where the presence of a large amount of early voting curbs his gains to 15 points. Here’s what that scenario looks like:
Scenario 3: Sanders wins Michigan (!) and surges (!) Delegate projections with anywhere from a net of 10 to 24 percentage points* added to Sanders’s projected vote share, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast as of 9:00 a.m. Eastern on March 10 Date State Biden Sanders others 3/10 Michigan 59 66 0 3/10 Washington 40 49 0 3/10 Missouri 40 28 0 3/10 Mississippi 23 13 0 3/10 Idaho 11 9 0 3/10 North Dakota 8 6 0 3/10 Democrats Abroad 6 7 0 3/14 Northern Mariana Islands 3 3 0 3/17 Florida 137 82 0 3/17 Illinois 84 71 0 3/17 Ohio 69 67 0 3/17 Arizona 37 30 0 3/24 Georgia 61 44 0 Period Biden Sanders others Pre-March 10 total 720 640 139 March 10 total 187 178 0 3/14 – 3/24 total 391 297 0 Grand delegate total through 3/24 1298 1115 139 *A net of 24 percentage points added to Sanders’s projected vote share in Michigan, 10 points added in other March 10 contests, 15 points in Florida and Arizona, and 20 points in other March 14 through March 24 contests.
Even with this massive overperformance, Sanders would … still be losing ground to Biden! He’d lose a net of nine delegates tonight and then another 94 in the rest of the states through Georgia, putting him 183 delegates behind Biden after March 24.
Sanders would then need to win 61 percent of the remaining delegates after Georgia to eventually claim a majority of pledged delegates, or 57 percent of them for a plurality. Also, note that even in this massive surge scenario, Sanders might not actually win all that many states, because Biden’s lead exceeds 20 points in states like Florida, Georgia and Ohio, which would give him enough of a buffer to withstand a 20-point Sanders surge.
So while such a race would certainly be interesting — especially with a more favorable set of states for Sanders like Wisconsin set to vote in early April — it might not actually be all that competitive. Instead, it might resemble the 2008 nomination race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, with Biden in Obama’s position. In that race, the candidates traded wins throughout the second half of the primary calendar, leading to massive shifts in the media narrative. But Clinton never came especially close to overcoming the delegate advantage that Obama had built up in February.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-10--Our Final Forecast For Today’s Primaries

With six states headed to the ballot box today , it ’ s once again time for FiveThirtyEight to freeze its forecast to see where things stand .
Today ’ s contests are divided between those that former Vice President Joe Biden will almost certainly win ( 99 percent chance ) and those where Sen. Bernie Sanders has a clearer chance .
As the table below shows , Biden is a strong favorite to win four of the seven contests , including three of the four biggest delegate hauls : Michigan , Missouri and Mississippi , as well as North @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more modest favorite over Sanders in the other three contests — Washington , Idaho and Democrats Abroad — and there ’ s plenty of room for an upset victory from Sanders .
( Especially Democrats Abroad , which has not been polled and is especially hard to model . )
Many of these states were competitive for Sanders in 2016 , too .
He won Michigan as part of a shocking victory , came super close to winning Missouri and won Idaho and Washington by large margins .
This time , though , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s advantage across the map .
There wasn ’ t a polling shortage heading into today either : We have almost 30 state and national polls conducted since Super Tuesday with most coming from Michigan , which makes sense given that it is Tuesday ’ s delegate prize .
Of the 10 polls we have of Michigan , all show Biden in the lead — but his lead ranges anywhere from 8 to 41 points over Sanders , with most polls putting Biden ahead by at least 20 points .
Here are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of release : • Swayable released a final batch of polls covering the six states voting today , and its Michigan survey found Biden up by 34 points over Sanders , 62 percent to 28 percent .
After adjusting for Swayable ’ s house effect or its tendency to consistently poll better or worse for a candidate , the model treated this more like a 36-point edge for Biden given Swayable ’ s tendency to give fairly rosy numbers for Sanders .
• ROI Rocket had a more favorable poll for Sanders , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Michigan .
After we adjusted this survey for house effects and the national trend , Biden led by 14 points .
• AtlasIntel gave Sanders his best numbers in the Wolverine State , finding Biden up by only 8 points , 48 percent to 40 percent .
AtlasIntel ’ s surveys have been pretty friendly to Sanders , however , so after accounting for house effects , this is treated as a 12-point advantage for Biden .
• Data for Progress ’ s last poll painted a prettier picture for Biden , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points , 59 percent to 38 percent .
Biden ’ s lead is essentially unchanged after adjusting for house effects .
• A Yahoo News/YouGov survey found Biden leading by only 12 points , or 54 percent to 42 percent , while Monmouth University found Biden ahead of Sanders by a similar margin of 15 points , or 51 percent to 36 percent .
Neither the Yahoo News/YouGov survey nor the Monmouth poll changed much after accounting for house effects .
For YouGov this marked a pronounced shift from its last look at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders leading by 9 points over Biden amid a crowded field .
• On the other hand , Target Insyght gave Biden his largest lead of 41 points , up over Sanders 65 percent to 24 percent .
Our model viewed that more like a 37-point lead for Biden after adjusting for house effects , however .
• On behalf of The Welcome Party , Concord Public Opinion Partners ’ poll found Biden leading Sanders by 30 points , 53 percent to 23 percent .
Biden ’ s margin barely moved after considering @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Press/EPIC-MRA survey of the Michigan primary also found Biden out in front by a big margin of 24 points , 51 percent to 27 percent .
Again , there was no change in Biden ’ s margin after adjusting for house effects .
• Another poll from Mitchell Research & Communications showed Biden ahead 21 points , 54 percent to 33 percent .
And Biden ’ s edge expanded slightly to 23 points after we accounted for house effects and the national trend .
There have also been a handful of post-Super Tuesday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : • In Washington , we have four recent surveys that show a close race .
Swayable found Biden ahead by just 2 points over Sanders , while Data for Progress took two looks at the Evergreen State after Super Tuesday : On Saturday , it found Biden up only 3 points over Sanders , but its final poll released late on Monday found Biden ahead by 6 points .
Meanwhile , on Friday SurveyUSA found Sanders and Biden basically tied .
For comparison , back in late January before any voting had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 5 points over Biden in Washington .
• In Missouri , Swayable , Øptimus , Data for Progress and Remington Research Group all found Biden up by at least 20 points .
The one exception was Emerson College , which only found Sanders down 4 points in the Show Me State , which was closer to 9 points in our model after we adjusted for Emerson ’ s strong pro-Sanders house effect .
Remington previously polled Missouri in late January and found Biden up by more than 20 points then , too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden up 68 percent to 28 percent over Sanders , and Data For Progress gave Biden an even larger 55-point edge in the Magnolia State .
• In Idaho , a last look from Swayable showed Biden ahead of Sanders by 15 points in the Gem State , but Data for Progress found a closer race with Biden only leading 51 percent to 47 percent .
• And we even got our first and only poll of the party-run primary in North Dakota , where Swayable found Biden with a huge lead , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We don ’ t have any polling for Democrats Abroad , though that ’ s not surprising given how challenging it would be to gather a sample !
What about the state of the overall race ?
The overall picture has become pretty clear .
Our forecast views Biden as an overwhelming favorite with a 99 in 100 shot ( more than a 99 percent chance ) of winning a majority of pledged delegates .
By contrast , Sanders is now an underdog with less than a 1 in 100 shot ( 0.1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ majority , thanks to Biden ’ s strong performance on Super Tuesday and his lead in the polls .
The scenario where no one wins a majority of pledged delegates has also fallen and now has just a 1 in 100 ( 0.8 percent ) chance of occurring .
We have five new national surveys since last Tuesday , and each found Biden with a double-digit lead over Sanders .
The two most recent live-caller polls were bullish for Biden , as CNN/SSRS found Biden ahead of Sanders by 16 points and Quinnipiac @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 19 points .
Two online pollsters that conducted surveys after Super Tuesday also found Biden leading by similar margins : Morning Consult found him up 18 points over Sanders and a new poll from Reuters/Ipsos showed Biden up 17 points against Sanders ( another Reuters/Ipsos survey released right after Super Tuesday found Biden up 10 points head-to-head with Sanders ) .
Biden now leads our national polling average by about 19 points after trailing Sanders by 11 points before Super Tuesday .
Biden ’ s ascent was sudden , but signs now point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lose .
Of course , we said this about Sanders not so long ago , so the race can still change , but Sanders is running out of time to make a comeback , and he needs to pull off some upset victories today to stay in contention as the primary marches on .

Our Final Forecast For Today’s Primaries Biden is a clear favorite in four contests, but there’s room for a Sanders upset in three others
With six states headed to the ballot box today, it’s once again time for FiveThirtyEight to freeze its forecast to see where things stand.
Today’s contests are divided between those that former Vice President Joe Biden will almost certainly win (99 percent chance) and those where Sen. Bernie Sanders has a clearer chance. As the table below shows, Biden is a strong favorite to win four of the seven contests, including three of the four biggest delegate hauls: Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi, as well as North Dakota. But Biden is also a more modest favorite over Sanders in the other three contests — Washington, Idaho and Democrats Abroad — and there’s plenty of room for an upset victory from Sanders. (Especially Democrats Abroad, which has not been polled and is especially hard to model.)
Biden is favored everywhere on March 10 Percent chance each top Democratic presidential candidate has of winning each contest, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 9 a.m. Eastern on March 10 State Pledged delegates Biden Sanders Michigan 125 99% 1% Washington 89 60 40 Missouri 68 99 1 Mississippi 36 99 1 Idaho 20 81 19 North Dakota 14 93 7 Democrats Abroad* 13 65 35 *Democrats Abroad started voting on March 3, but voting ends today.
Many of these states were competitive for Sanders in 2016, too. He won Michigan as part of a shocking victory, came super close to winning Missouri and won Idaho and Washington by large margins. This time, though, polls and demographic trends point to Biden’s advantage across the map.
There wasn’t a polling shortage heading into today either: We have almost 30 state and national polls conducted since Super Tuesday with most coming from Michigan, which makes sense given that it is Tuesday’s delegate prize. Of the 10 polls we have of Michigan, all show Biden in the lead — but his lead ranges anywhere from 8 to 41 points over Sanders, with most polls putting Biden ahead by at least 20 points. Here are those Michigan surveys we have in order of release:
There have also been a handful of post-Super Tuesday polls in the other states voting today:
What about the state of the overall race? The overall picture has become pretty clear. Our forecast views Biden as an overwhelming favorite with a 99 in 100 shot (more than a 99 percent chance) of winning a majority of pledged delegates. By contrast, Sanders is now an underdog with less than a 1 in 100 shot (0.1 percent chance) of winning a delegate majority, thanks to Biden’s strong performance on Super Tuesday and his lead in the polls. The scenario where no one wins a majority of pledged delegates has also fallen and now has just a 1 in 100 (0.8 percent) chance of occurring.
We have five new national surveys since last Tuesday, and each found Biden with a double-digit lead over Sanders. The two most recent live-caller polls were bullish for Biden, as CNN/SSRS found Biden ahead of Sanders by 16 points and Quinnipiac University found an even larger margin of 19 points. Two online pollsters that conducted surveys after Super Tuesday also found Biden leading by similar margins: Morning Consult found him up 18 points over Sanders and a new poll from Reuters/Ipsos showed Biden up 17 points against Sanders (another Reuters/Ipsos survey released right after Super Tuesday found Biden up 10 points head-to-head with Sanders). Biden now leads our national polling average by about 19 points after trailing Sanders by 11 points before Super Tuesday.
Biden’s ascent was sudden, but signs now point to this being clearly his race to lose. Of course, we said this about Sanders not so long ago, so the race can still change, but Sanders is running out of time to make a comeback, and he needs to pull off some upset victories today to stay in contention as the primary marches on.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-12--Why Are Women Less Likely Than Men To Support Sanders?

After a stint as the Democratic primary front-runner , Sen. Bernie Sanders ’ s revolution is rapidly stalling .
After a series of surprising losses on Super Tuesday , he lost again in Michigan earlier this week , despite spending days campaigning across the state .
In contest after contest , Sanders has struggled to make inroads with key Democratic constituencies — in particular , black voters and older voters .
But there ’ s another trend that ’ s plagued him throughout the primary : He does poorly with women .
According to aggregated exit polls from the states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s support is 8 points lower among women than his support among men .
Sanders has consistently been at a disadvantage among women in this year ’ s primary .
And that ’ s not a deficit that a Democratic primary candidate can simply ignore , since women make up a majority of the party ’ s electorate this year — 57 percent of primary voters so far .
“ Consistently having lower support among women is a problem of optics because it makes it look like there ’ s something going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” said Kelly Dittmar , a political scientist at Rutgers University–Camden who studies gender and politics .
“ But it ’ s also an actual numbers issue because men are just a smaller proportion of the Democratic electorate .
You need to do well among women in order to win the nomination.
” It ’ s hard to pin down a single reason why men seem to be more attracted to Sanders ’ s candidacy than women .
There isn ’ t really evidence , for example , that Sanders is especially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feelings toward women .
In a recent analysis , researchers for Data for Progress did find that gender bias kept some voters from supporting Warren — but Sanders ’ s supporters didn ’ t hold more sexist views than Biden ’ s .
But there is evidence , according to an analysis by Dan Cassino , a political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University , that while support for Biden increases among voters with more sexist views , those with the most sexist views were disproportionately likely to favor Sanders .
And sexism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ men .
“ Educated Democrats who are quite sexist are disproportionately likely to be Sanders supporters , ” said Cassino .
“ To be clear , there aren ’ t a lot of those people in the Democratic Party .
But because of their education and social capital , they ’ re probably more inclined to tell people about their views and express them online.
” This doesn ’ t explain all of Sanders ’ s struggles with women .
But his lopsided support among this group provides a window into some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ primary electorate this year — particularly the limits of Sanders ’ s lefty , anti-establishment message and the aggression of his supporters at a moment when many Democratic voters are laser-focused on finding a candidate who can beat Trump .
At a Biden rally in Detroit last week , Mary Mckenney , 69 , said that she hadn ’ t made up her mind about which candidate to support until the race narrowed to Biden and Sanders .
Then , she said , her choice became very clear .
“ It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Bernie ’ s ideas , I just think they can ’ t happen , ” she said .
“ And I think if he ’ s the nominee there will just be more fighting and conflict .
We need someone who can bring Democrats together.
” Views like Mckenney ’ s aren ’ t universal among Democratic women .
Plenty of women are enthusiastic about Sanders — including Mckenney ’ s daughter Carrie , 43 , who was standing next to her at the rally .
But older women like Mckenney make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic electorate , which makes them a disproportionately important group .
So far , women over the age of 45 have made up 38 percent of Democratic primary voters , while women under the age of 45 only made up 19 percent .
And the age gap that has emerged across the primary is almost certainly shaping women ’ s support for Sanders too : older women tend to be more moderate than younger women , which means they may be less likely to see Sanders ’ s calls to upend the status @ @ @ @ @ @ @ generational fissures aren ’ t the whole story .
Women of all ages told us they liked Sanders ’ s ideas but found aspects of his candidacy alienating .
“ I don ’ t have the same aversion to the DNC and the Democratic establishment that a lot of Bernie supporters seem to have , ” said Tiffany Keane Schaefer , 31 , who lives in Chicago and volunteered for Warren but is now undecided about who she ’ ll support .
Schaefer told me she ’ s disturbed by some of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not endorsing Sanders after she dropped out .
“ Right now it feels like I am getting blasted every single day on social media about why Warren isn ’ t doing enough to help Sanders.
” That antagonism makes Schaefer feel uncomfortable about the prospect of supporting Sanders , even though she ’ s closer to him on the issues than to Biden .
One of the central messages of Sanders ’ s campaign is the need to take on the political establishment — including the party whose nomination he is seeking .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nevada caucuses , Sanders tweeted , “ I ’ ve got news for the Republican establishment .
I ’ ve got news for the Democratic establishment .
They can ’ t stop us.
” That kind of message obviously appeals to people who are disaffected with the Democratic Party — but to people who don ’ t have a problem with the party , it can seem like an unnecessary risk .
“ I understand why the young people love Sanders — student debt , it ’ s a real problem , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was waiting outside the Biden rally in Detroit with her grandson .
“ I just have a concern that he is not willing to make the compromises that are necessary in our political system , or work with people in the party who may not share his views.
” Women are especially likely to say that being a Democrat is an important part of who they are .
According to our analysis of a Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape survey of likely primary voters administered from Feb. 20 to Feb 26 , 63 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ party affiliation is somewhat or very important to their identity , compared to 58 percent of Democratic men .
That ’ s not an enormous difference , but it is statistically significant — it also lines up with other research that finds partisanship functions as a more important social identity for women than it does for men .
Women over the age of 45 are especially likely ( 67 percent ) to say being a Democrat is an important part of their identity .
Of course , not all women are turned off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the system — including radical change to their own party .
“ It just feels like the Democratic Party has forgotten what it means to be the party of the working class , ” said Diana Post , 30 , who lives in Detroit and said she was torn between Warren and Sanders until Warren dropped out of the race .
She now describes herself as a “ big Sanders fan.
” “ We need someone more radical than what the establishment is putting forward , a candidate who can shake things up.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , voters have been asked if they would prefer a candidate who agrees with them on the issues or a candidate who can beat Trump .
According to the exit polls so far , women are likelier to be in the latter category : 65 percent of women say they would prefer a candidate who can defeat Trump , compared to 59 percent of men .
That isn ’ t an overwhelming gap , to be sure , but it ’ s still noteworthy given that women make up a disproportionate share of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ primaries so far , voters who prioritize a candidate who can defeat Trump are disproportionately likely to support Biden .
That was where Ruth Vail , 77 , said she had landed .
She was standing on the University of Michigan quad , waiting with her 15-year-old grandson Leo to hear Sanders speak .
But even though she was curious to hear what Sanders had to say , she said she ’ d probably be voting for Biden .
“ I think unfortunately it ’ s just going to be very easy to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who ’ s a scary person who wants to change everything , ” she said .
“ And I really just want a president who won ’ t keep me up at night , thinking about what he ’ s going to do next , thinking about who he ’ s going to appoint to the Supreme Court .
The most important thing to me in this election is just ensuring that Donald Trump is no longer our president .
”

After a stint as the Democratic primary front-runner, Sen. Bernie Sanders’s revolution is rapidly stalling. After a series of surprising losses on Super Tuesday, he lost again in Michigan earlier this week, despite spending days campaigning across the state.
In contest after contest, Sanders has struggled to make inroads with key Democratic constituencies — in particular, black voters and older voters. But there’s another trend that’s plagued him throughout the primary: He does poorly with women. According to aggregated exit polls from the states that have voted so far, Sanders’s support is 8 points lower among women than his support among men.
Sanders consistently gets less support from women Vote share by gender in entrance and exit polls from completed state primaries and caucuses, by candidate Sanders Biden State Men Women Diff. Men Women Diff. Iowa 26% 20% -6 16% 16% 0 New Hampshire 31 23 -8 8 8 0 Nevada 38 30 -8 18 17 -1 South Carolina 24 17 -7 48 49 +1 California 38 32 -6 19 28 +9 Texas 34 27 -7 33 33 0 North Carolina 27 21 -6 42 42 0 Virginia 29 19 -10 49 57 +8 Massachusetts 31 26 -5 34 34 0 Minnesota 37 25 -12 39 41 +2 Tennessee 27 23 -4 38 44 +6 Alabama 20 14 -6 61 65 +4 Oklahoma 30 21 -9 40 37 -3 Maine 38 29 -9 29 37 +8 Vermont 53 51 -2 24 20 -4 Washington 41 27 -14 28 36 +8 Missouri 38 32 -6 56 64 +8 Mississippi 18 12 -6 78 83 +5 Source: Edison Research
Sanders has consistently been at a disadvantage among women in this year’s primary. And that’s not a deficit that a Democratic primary candidate can simply ignore, since women make up a majority of the party’s electorate this year — 57 percent of primary voters so far.
“Consistently having lower support among women is a problem of optics because it makes it look like there’s something going on that prevents women from backing you,” said Kelly Dittmar, a political scientist at Rutgers University–Camden who studies gender and politics. “But it’s also an actual numbers issue because men are just a smaller proportion of the Democratic electorate. You need to do well among women in order to win the nomination.”
It’s hard to pin down a single reason why men seem to be more attracted to Sanders’s candidacy than women. There isn’t really evidence, for example, that Sanders is especially likely to attract supporters who display hostile feelings toward women. In a recent analysis, researchers for Data for Progress did find that gender bias kept some voters from supporting Warren — but Sanders’s supporters didn’t hold more sexist views than Biden’s. But there is evidence, according to an analysis by Dan Cassino, a political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University, that while support for Biden increases among voters with more sexist views, those with the most sexist views were disproportionately likely to favor Sanders. And sexism was higher, in general, among men.
“Educated Democrats who are quite sexist are disproportionately likely to be Sanders supporters,” said Cassino. “To be clear, there aren’t a lot of those people in the Democratic Party. But because of their education and social capital, they’re probably more inclined to tell people about their views and express them online.”
This doesn’t explain all of Sanders’s struggles with women. But his lopsided support among this group provides a window into some of the divisions that are roiling the Democratic primary electorate this year — particularly the limits of Sanders’s lefty, anti-establishment message and the aggression of his supporters at a moment when many Democratic voters are laser-focused on finding a candidate who can beat Trump.
At a Biden rally in Detroit last week, Mary Mckenney, 69, said that she hadn’t made up her mind about which candidate to support until the race narrowed to Biden and Sanders. Then, she said, her choice became very clear. “It’s not even that I don’t like Bernie’s ideas, I just think they can’t happen,” she said. “And I think if he’s the nominee there will just be more fighting and conflict. We need someone who can bring Democrats together.”
Views like Mckenney’s aren’t universal among Democratic women. Plenty of women are enthusiastic about Sanders — including Mckenney’s daughter Carrie, 43, who was standing next to her at the rally. But older women like Mckenney make up a much bigger share of the Democratic electorate, which makes them a disproportionately important group. So far, women over the age of 45 have made up 38 percent of Democratic primary voters, while women under the age of 45 only made up 19 percent. And the age gap that has emerged across the primary is almost certainly shaping women’s support for Sanders too: older women tend to be more moderate than younger women, which means they may be less likely to see Sanders’s calls to upend the status quo as feasible or appealing.
But generational fissures aren’t the whole story. Women of all ages told us they liked Sanders’s ideas but found aspects of his candidacy alienating. “I don’t have the same aversion to the DNC and the Democratic establishment that a lot of Bernie supporters seem to have,” said Tiffany Keane Schaefer, 31, who lives in Chicago and volunteered for Warren but is now undecided about who she’ll support. Schaefer told me she’s disturbed by some of the criticism Sanders allies levied against Warren for not endorsing Sanders after she dropped out. “Right now it feels like I am getting blasted every single day on social media about why Warren isn’t doing enough to help Sanders.” That antagonism makes Schaefer feel uncomfortable about the prospect of supporting Sanders, even though she’s closer to him on the issues than to Biden.
One of the central messages of Sanders’s campaign is the need to take on the political establishment — including the party whose nomination he is seeking. On the day before he won the Nevada caucuses, Sanders tweeted, “I’ve got news for the Republican establishment. I’ve got news for the Democratic establishment. They can’t stop us.”
That kind of message obviously appeals to people who are disaffected with the Democratic Party — but to people who don’t have a problem with the party, it can seem like an unnecessary risk. “I understand why the young people love Sanders — student debt, it’s a real problem,” said Grace Andrews, 79, who was waiting outside the Biden rally in Detroit with her grandson. “I just have a concern that he is not willing to make the compromises that are necessary in our political system, or work with people in the party who may not share his views.”
Women are especially likely to say that being a Democrat is an important part of who they are. According to our analysis of a Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape survey of likely primary voters administered from Feb. 20 to Feb 26, 63 percent of Democratic women say that their party affiliation is somewhat or very important to their identity, compared to 58 percent of Democratic men. That’s not an enormous difference, but it is statistically significant — it also lines up with other research that finds partisanship functions as a more important social identity for women than it does for men. Women over the age of 45 are especially likely (67 percent) to say being a Democrat is an important part of their identity.
Of course, not all women are turned off by the idea of radical changes to the system — including radical change to their own party. “It just feels like the Democratic Party has forgotten what it means to be the party of the working class,” said Diana Post, 30, who lives in Detroit and said she was torn between Warren and Sanders until Warren dropped out of the race. She now describes herself as a “big Sanders fan.” “We need someone more radical than what the establishment is putting forward, a candidate who can shake things up.”
Over the course of the primary, voters have been asked if they would prefer a candidate who agrees with them on the issues or a candidate who can beat Trump. According to the exit polls so far, women are likelier to be in the latter category: 65 percent of women say they would prefer a candidate who can defeat Trump, compared to 59 percent of men. That isn’t an overwhelming gap, to be sure, but it’s still noteworthy given that women make up a disproportionate share of the Democratic electorate. And in the primaries so far, voters who prioritize a candidate who can defeat Trump are disproportionately likely to support Biden.
That was where Ruth Vail, 77, said she had landed. She was standing on the University of Michigan quad, waiting with her 15-year-old grandson Leo to hear Sanders speak. But even though she was curious to hear what Sanders had to say, she said she’d probably be voting for Biden. “I think unfortunately it’s just going to be very easy to paint Sanders as an extremist, someone who’s a scary person who wants to change everything,” she said. “And I really just want a president who won’t keep me up at night, thinking about what he’s going to do next, thinking about who he’s going to appoint to the Supreme Court. The most important thing to me in this election is just ensuring that Donald Trump is no longer our president.”
Laura Bronner contributed research.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-11--Election Update: Sanders Needs Something Extraordinary To Happen

The FiveThirtyEight primary model is back on after incorporating the results from “ Triple M Tuesday ” , in which Michigan , Missouri , Mississippi , Washington , Idaho , North Dakota and Democrats Abroad voted .
But you may have hardly noticed the change .
That ’ s because the model was already pretty certain that former Vice President Joe Biden would win a majority of pledged delegates based on his lead so far , as well as polls in those states in addition to states set to vote later this month .
Because the results from last night @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is essentially unchanged .
But to back up a bit : If Super Tuesday was a good day for Biden , everything since then — including the results from last night — have been great for him .
The model expected Biden to get a bounce from Super Tuesday , but the bounce has actually been a bit larger than the model expected , with Biden having claimed a 17-point lead in national polls while also dominating the polls in upcoming states .
The results of Tuesday ’ s contests were largely consistent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Wednesday afternoon — with results not yet officially finalized — Biden leads in Michigan by 17 percentage points , in Missouri by 26 points and in Mississippi by a whopping 66 points , where Sanders looks as though he may fall just below the 15 percent threshold required to win statewide delegates .
Biden also won Idaho , although he lost North Dakota , whose party-run primary , with a limited number of voting sites and short voting hours , resulted in very low turnout , which helped Sen. Bernie Sanders as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
So going forward , the model will treat party-run primaries — which are also set to take place in Alaska , Hawaii and Kansas — as being essentially halfway in between primaries and caucuses , boostingSanders ’ s odds in those states .
In two other states , results are still really incomplete .
First , Washington , where Sanders is probably in trouble .
He led by a meager 0.2 percentage point margin in the initial vote reported out of Washington on Tuesday night , which consists of ballots that were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it is likely that Biden will gain ground in Washington from this point forward .
That ’ s because ballots returned later on will more fully reflect Biden ’ s surge over the past few weeks .
It ’ s a similar situation in California , another vote-by-mail state , where Sanders ’ s lead has fallen to 6.7 percentage points after having been 8.7 points in initial returns on election night .
But based on the pattern of returns in California , we came up with a formula to estimate what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Washington .
Specifically , the formula is based on the age of each candidate ’ s voters , and when his voters said they made up their minds , according to the Washington exit poll .
Usually , candidates with younger supporters ( such as Sanders ) tend to see their support grow as additional returns are counted because younger voters are more likely to wait to send in their ballot .
However , the exit polls also show Biden having done much better with voters who made up their minds in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will likely outweigh the fact that Biden ’ s supporters are older .
Based on this formula , our best guess is that Biden will eventually win Washington by around 3 percentage points , which would closely match pre-election polls there .
The Washington results used by the model reflect this adjustment , and assume ( consistent with betting markets ) that there ’ s an 80 percent chance that Biden eventually wins Washington .
For the Democrats Abroad primary , no results have yet been officially reported , and Democrats Abroad has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 23 , even though the voting window closed yesterday .
For the time being , we are relying on scattered reports of precinct-level returns , which show Sanders well ahead , and Sen. Elizabeth Warren actually in second place ahead of Biden .
( Keep in mind that some global locations held their primaries before Warren dropped out . )
These may or may not be representative of the final results , but since Sanders overwhelmingly won Democrats Abroad in 2016 , we think it ’ s reasonably likely that he does so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as of late Wednesday morning in Michigan , Missouri , Mississippi , Idaho and North Dakota , our adjusted results in Washington , and the unofficial , partial results in Democrats Abroad , we show Biden having won 215 delegates last night , Sanders 145 delegates and other candidates 5 delegates .
That ’ s very close to our projections before the evening began .
And when combined with states that voted before Tuesday , Biden has an overall lead of around 150 pledged delegates .
One hundred and fifty delegates might not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a nontrivial lead for Biden .
But as Nate Cohn of The New York Times ’ s The Upshot points out , the delegate math is not actually Sanders ’ s biggest problem .
If the national race were tied going-forward , Sanders would have his work cut out for him , but he would still have a puncher ’ s chance at the nomination despite trailing in the delegate count so far .
Rather , Sanders ’ s biggest problem is that he ’ s down 15 to 20 points nationally , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national polls but also in the results from states such as Michigan .
That means Sanders tends to lose more ground every time a new set of states votes .
That ’ s especially likely to be a problem for him over the next two weeks , with Florida , Ohio , Illinois and Arizona set to vote on March 17 , and Georgia on the schedule for March 24 .
Even under the best of circumstances , these would not be a great set of states for Sanders .
He ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Georgia , as he has elsewhere in the South .
Ohio and Illinois look like longshots for Sanders , too , given the results in Michigan .
Arizona might theoretically be a good state for Sanders , but he ’ s well behind in the only recent poll there .
And by the time these states have finished voting , the delegate math will be a major problem for Sanders , and even a massive late surge would probably not be enough to help him win the nomination .
Put another way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surge within the next week just to remain competitive for the nomination , and even then it would still be an uphill battle for him .
And he needs it at a time when Biden potentially stands to gain more ground because of his strong results last night ; states such as Michigan could potentially give Biden a further bounce in the polls .
Thus , even a strong debate on Sunday for Sanders might not be enough and just merely offset further momentum Biden gained from Tuesday .
The model does not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out .
( It assumes that candidates will not drop out so long as they remain either the delegate leader or the leader in national polls . )
Actuarially speaking , there is some small chance that Biden could have to leave the race because of a scandal , a health problem , and so on ; we don ’ t try to estimate this possibility .
And I don ’ t mean to keep dwelling on these possibilities .
But we ’ re at the point now where if Biden were to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ require something highly out of the ordinary to happen .

The FiveThirtyEight primary model is back on after incorporating the results from “Triple M Tuesday”, in which Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, Washington, Idaho, North Dakota and Democrats Abroad voted. But you may have hardly noticed the change.
That’s because the model was already pretty certain that former Vice President Joe Biden would win a majority of pledged delegates based on his lead so far, as well as polls in those states in addition to states set to vote later this month. Because the results from last night largely matched our forecast, the forecast is essentially unchanged.
But to back up a bit: If Super Tuesday was a good day for Biden, everything since then — including the results from last night — have been great for him. The model expected Biden to get a bounce from Super Tuesday, but the bounce has actually been a bit larger than the model expected, with Biden having claimed a 17-point lead in national polls while also dominating the polls in upcoming states. The results of Tuesday’s contests were largely consistent with the polls, too. As of Wednesday afternoon — with results not yet officially finalized — Biden leads in Michigan by 17 percentage points, in Missouri by 26 points and in Mississippi by a whopping 66 points, where Sanders looks as though he may fall just below the 15 percent threshold required to win statewide delegates.
Biden also won Idaho, although he lost North Dakota, whose party-run primary, with a limited number of voting sites and short voting hours, resulted in very low turnout, which helped Sen. Bernie Sanders as he overperforms in caucuses relative to primaries. So going forward, the model will treat party-run primaries — which are also set to take place in Alaska, Hawaii and Kansas — as being essentially halfway in between primaries and caucuses, boostingSanders’s odds in those states.
In two other states, results are still really incomplete. First, Washington, where Sanders is probably in trouble. He led by a meager 0.2 percentage point margin in the initial vote reported out of Washington on Tuesday night, which consists of ballots that were mailed in some time ago. However, it is likely that Biden will gain ground in Washington from this point forward. That’s because ballots returned later on will more fully reflect Biden’s surge over the past few weeks.
It’s a similar situation in California, another vote-by-mail state, where Sanders’s lead has fallen to 6.7 percentage points after having been 8.7 points in initial returns on election night. But based on the pattern of returns in California, we came up with a formula to estimate what the remaining ballots will look like in Washington. Specifically, the formula is based on the age of each candidate’s voters, and when his voters said they made up their minds, according to the Washington exit poll. Usually, candidates with younger supporters (such as Sanders) tend to see their support grow as additional returns are counted because younger voters are more likely to wait to send in their ballot. However, the exit polls also show Biden having done much better with voters who made up their minds in the last few days, and this consideration will likely outweigh the fact that Biden’s supporters are older.
Based on this formula, our best guess is that Biden will eventually win Washington by around 3 percentage points, which would closely match pre-election polls there. The Washington results used by the model reflect this adjustment, and assume (consistent with betting markets) that there’s an 80 percent chance that Biden eventually wins Washington.
For the Democrats Abroad primary, no results have yet been officially reported, and Democrats Abroad has not promised to release any until March 23, even though the voting window closed yesterday. For the time being, we are relying on scattered reports of precinct-level returns, which show Sanders well ahead, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren actually in second place ahead of Biden. (Keep in mind that some global locations held their primaries before Warren dropped out.) These may or may not be representative of the final results, but since Sanders overwhelmingly won Democrats Abroad in 2016, we think it’s reasonably likely that he does so again.
Overall, based on results as of late Wednesday morning in Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, Idaho and North Dakota, our adjusted results in Washington, and the unofficial, partial results in Democrats Abroad, we show Biden having won 215 delegates last night, Sanders 145 delegates and other candidates 5 delegates. That’s very close to our projections before the evening began.
Biden likely gained 70 more delegates than Sanders Estimated delegate counts based on results as of 11 a.m. on March 11 State Biden Sanders other Michigan 73 52 0 Washington* 45 42 2 Missouri 44 24 0 Mississippi 34 2 0 Idaho 11 9 0 North Dakota 6 8 0 Democrats Abroad† 2 8 3 Total 215 145 5 * Washington results reflect an adjustment as Biden is expected to gain ground as more ballots are returned.
† Democrats Abroad results are based on a limited sample of partial, unofficial returns. In all other states, we use results “as is” based on reports through the late morning of March 11.
And when combined with states that voted before Tuesday, Biden has an overall lead of around 150 pledged delegates.
Biden leads by about 150 delegates Estimated delegate counts based on results as of 11 a.m. on March 11 Candidate Before March 10 After March 10 Current
estimated total Biden 720 215 935 Sanders 640 145 785 Warren 61 2 63 Bloomberg 53 3 56 Buttigieg 18 0 18 Klobuchar 5 0 5 Gabbard 2 0 2 Washington results reflect an adjustment as Biden is expected to gain ground as more ballots are returned. Democrats Abroad results are based on a limited sample of partial, unofficial returns. In all other states, we use results “as is” based on reports through the late morning of March 11.
One hundred and fifty delegates might not sound like much, but this is a nontrivial lead for Biden. But as Nate Cohn of The New York Times’s The Upshot points out, the delegate math is not actually Sanders’s biggest problem. If the national race were tied going-forward, Sanders would have his work cut out for him, but he would still have a puncher’s chance at the nomination despite trailing in the delegate count so far.
Rather, Sanders’s biggest problem is that he’s down 15 to 20 points nationally, a result reflected not only in the national polls but also in the results from states such as Michigan. That means Sanders tends to lose more ground every time a new set of states votes.
That’s especially likely to be a problem for him over the next two weeks, with Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona set to vote on March 17, and Georgia on the schedule for March 24. Even under the best of circumstances, these would not be a great set of states for Sanders. He’s almost certain to lose badly in Florida and Georgia, as he has elsewhere in the South. Ohio and Illinois look like longshots for Sanders, too, given the results in Michigan. Arizona might theoretically be a good state for Sanders, but he’s well behind in the only recent poll there.
And by the time these states have finished voting, the delegate math will be a major problem for Sanders, and even a massive late surge would probably not be enough to help him win the nomination.
Put another way, Sanders needs something like a 20-point surge within the next week just to remain competitive for the nomination, and even then it would still be an uphill battle for him. And he needs it at a time when Biden potentially stands to gain more ground because of his strong results last night; states such as Michigan could potentially give Biden a further bounce in the polls. Thus, even a strong debate on Sunday for Sanders might not be enough and just merely offset further momentum Biden gained from Tuesday.
The model does not account for any possibility that Biden drops out. (It assumes that candidates will not drop out so long as they remain either the delegate leader or the leader in national polls.) Actuarially speaking, there is some small chance that Biden could have to leave the race because of a scandal, a health problem, and so on; we don’t try to estimate this possibility. And I don’t mean to keep dwelling on these possibilities. But we’re at the point now where if Biden were to lose the nomination, it would likely require something highly out of the ordinary to happen.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-11--Sanders Shouldn’t Expect A Big Delegate Boost From Candidates Who Dropped Out

With Super Tuesday under our belts and contests in six more states wrapping up on Tuesday , we are in the thick of the March delegate blitz .
Arizona , Florida , Illinois and Ohio vote on March 17 , and by the end of March , almost two-thirds of delegates will have been awarded .
But most of the focus is still on the actual delegate allocation process , or how many delegates a candidate earns based on the results of primaries and caucuses , and not the delegate selection process .
That ’ s right , those 125 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ actual people , and it sometimes takes months before these delegates are actually selected .
And although the process happens at the state level , campaigns have the right to review all delegates selected to represent them at the convention under the delegate selection plans each state party submitted to the Democratic National Committee .
Obviously there is some variation across campaigns : Some are better organized and more adept at navigating the selection process , while others are less organized .
But the important thing to remember here is that while around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allocated by the end of March , only a little more than 8 percent will have been selected .
It is not until the end of May that two-thirds of the pledged delegates will have been selected .
Normally , this would not mean all that much .
Typically , the field of candidates winnows before delegates are allocated in large numbers , much less before individual delegates are selected .
But 2020 has been different in this regard .
Multiple candidates have won pledged delegates , so as they drop out , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ process that could reshape the delegate count : the reallocation of statewide delegates .
When a candidate drops out of the race before statewide delegates are selected , the delegates they won are automatically reallocated to candidates who are still in the race and received more than 15 percent of the vote statewide in that state ’ s contest .
For instance , in Iowa , former South Bend , Indiana , Mayor Pete Buttigieg ’ s five statewide delegates and Sen. Elizabeth Warren ’ s three would be proportionally reallocated to former @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders based on the share of the vote they won in Iowa — five for Sanders and three for Biden — assuming they ’ re both still in the race .
( District delegates , on the other hand , which are selected based on the results of individual congressional districts , are more or less locked in once they have been allocated .
Meaning , for example , there will still be 18 district delegates pledged to Buttigieg from Iowa , New Hampshire and Nevada . )
In total , there were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Super Tuesday where at least three candidates cleared the 15 percent threshold statewide .
And even though Sanders finished ahead of Biden in four of those nine states , the delegate reallocation process looks like it ’ ll be a wash — Biden is projected to get 23 delegates and Sanders 25 — and that ’ s even counting New Hampshire , where Sanders gets all 5 reallocated delegates , as he is the only candidate left who won more than 15 percent statewide .
Sanders was hampered by Biden winning in five @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more candidates surpassed the 15 percent delegate threshold .
There were also fewer delegates up for grabs in the reallocation process than there might have otherwise been , because in five states , only one candidate had delegates to redistribute : either former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg or Sen. Elizabeth Warren .
There were two Super Tuesday states — Colorado and Utah — where four candidates were above 15 percent statewide , and Sanders won both these states .
But while this meant that a handful more reallocated delegates are up for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be enough to help break in Sanders ’ s direction in any meaningful way .
Rather , Sanders would net just one more delegate in the Colorado reallocation , even though he won the state by more than 12 points .
This is more bad news for Sanders — as the early front-runner , he would have been in position to gain ground in the reallocation process , smoothing his path to the nomination , and the most surefire way of making gains this way was to have a crowded field with many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the field winnowing to just two candidates , that opportunity to close the gap in the delegate allocation process has largely passed .
In the end , there were few opportunities for Sanders to pick up reallocated delegates , and he ’ ll now have to hang his hopes on winning more delegates the old-fashioned way — winning states outright .

With Super Tuesday under our belts and contests in six more states wrapping up on Tuesday, we are in the thick of the March delegate blitz. Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio vote on March 17, and by the end of March, almost two-thirds of delegates will have been awarded. But most of the focus is still on the actual delegate allocation process, or how many delegates a candidate earns based on the results of primaries and caucuses, and not the delegate selection process.
That’s right, those 125 delegates being divvied up in Michigan are actual people, and it sometimes takes months before these delegates are actually selected. And although the process happens at the state level, campaigns have the right to review all delegates selected to represent them at the convention under the delegate selection plans each state party submitted to the Democratic National Committee. Obviously there is some variation across campaigns: Some are better organized and more adept at navigating the selection process, while others are less organized. But the important thing to remember here is that while around two-thirds of pledged delegates will have been allocated by the end of March, only a little more than 8 percent will have been selected. It is not until the end of May that two-thirds of the pledged delegates will have been selected.
Normally, this would not mean all that much. Typically, the field of candidates winnows before delegates are allocated in large numbers, much less before individual delegates are selected. But 2020 has been different in this regard. Multiple candidates have won pledged delegates, so as they drop out, they trigger a mechanism in the selection process that could reshape the delegate count: the reallocation of statewide delegates.
When a candidate drops out of the race before statewide delegates are selected, the delegates they won are automatically reallocated to candidates who are still in the race and received more than 15 percent of the vote statewide in that state’s contest. For instance, in Iowa, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s five statewide delegates and Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s three would be proportionally reallocated to former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders based on the share of the vote they won in Iowa — five for Sanders and three for Biden — assuming they’re both still in the race. (District delegates, on the other hand, which are selected based on the results of individual congressional districts, are more or less locked in once they have been allocated. Meaning, for example, there will still be 18 district delegates pledged to Buttigieg from Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.)
In total, there were nine states that voted on or before Super Tuesday where at least three candidates cleared the 15 percent threshold statewide. And even though Sanders finished ahead of Biden in four of those nine states, the delegate reallocation process looks like it’ll be a wash — Biden is projected to get 23 delegates and Sanders 25 — and that’s even counting New Hampshire, where Sanders gets all 5 reallocated delegates, as he is the only candidate left who won more than 15 percent statewide.
The delegate reallocation process is kind of a wash Number of statewide delegates Biden and Sanders are expected to receive in the reallocation process for states where a candidate who has since dropped out won a statewide delegate State Reallocated Delegates Biden gains Sanders gains Iowa 8 3 5 New Hampshire 5 — 5 Arkansas 2 2 — Colorado 9 4 5 Maine 2 2 — Massachusetts 8 5 3 Minnesota 5 3 2 Tennessee 5 3 2 Utah 4 1 3 Total 48 23 25
Sanders was hampered by Biden winning in five of these nine states where three or more candidates surpassed the 15 percent delegate threshold. There were also fewer delegates up for grabs in the reallocation process than there might have otherwise been, because in five states, only one candidate had delegates to redistribute: either former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg or Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
There were two Super Tuesday states — Colorado and Utah — where four candidates were above 15 percent statewide, and Sanders won both these states. But while this meant that a handful more reallocated delegates are up for grabs, it still won’t be enough to help break in Sanders’s direction in any meaningful way. Rather, Sanders would net just one more delegate in the Colorado reallocation, even though he won the state by more than 12 points.
This is more bad news for Sanders — as the early front-runner, he would have been in position to gain ground in the reallocation process, smoothing his path to the nomination, and the most surefire way of making gains this way was to have a crowded field with many candidates clearing 15 percent statewide. But with the field winnowing to just two candidates, that opportunity to close the gap in the delegate allocation process has largely passed. In the end, there were few opportunities for Sanders to pick up reallocated delegates, and he’ll now have to hang his hopes on winning more delegates the old-fashioned way — winning states outright.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-11--Coronavirus Is A Big Problem For The Biden And Sanders Campaigns

Campaigning at the best of times takes a toll on the body .
Between the lack of sleep , poor diet , and stress — not to mention hand-to-hand exposure to hundreds of strangers every day — keeping a candidate healthy is always an uphill battle .
That was the case before the novel coronavirus reshaped American society and politics .
Now , with a global health emergency at our door and the three main presidential candidates remaining all in the highest-risk age group ( Joe Biden , Bernie Sanders , and President Trump are all in their 70s ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even more risky .
Huge amounts of a campaign present problems in the context of a pandemic — for the politician , his campaign and his supporters .
Both the Biden and Sanders campaigns canceled rallies in Ohio this week , but that could only be the first of many changes .
Coronavirus spreads through close contact with infected people , and the Centers For Disease Control is recommending people in high-risk groups , including older adults , avoid things like close contact with strangers and large gatherings .
In other words , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not ideal .
Huge , crowded rallies where a septuagenarian leans in close for photos with hundreds of strangers is a huge risk .
“ It ’ s the antithesis of the recommendations , ” said Dr. William Schaffner , an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center .
“ However , it ’ s important to remember that these are recommendations .
Nobody expects these recommendations will apply 100 percent of the time to 100 percent of the people.
” Schaffner said everyone should evaluate the importance of an event @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said , has stopped going to bridge club , for example .
The candidates , however , are playing a game with slightly higher stakes .
“ It must be obvious that our political leaders — whether they ’ re the Democrat candidates or the White House — consider political activity pretty essential , ” he said .
“ I trust that their aides are giving them lots of good hand sanitizers because there ’ s a lot of gripping and grinning that goes on there.
” All that gripping and grinning puts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Research has shown that shaking hands is an extremely effective way of transferring microbes .
In a 2014 study , researchers found that shaking hands transferred 10 times more microbes than a fist bump when they tried the different greetings after dipping their gloved hands into E. Coli .
And the more people a candidate is interacting with , the higher the risk of infection , Schaffner said .
“ Your chances of catching a fish increase the more times you throw your line into the pond.
” But those hand shakes are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Erick Sanchez , who worked as traveling press secretary for former candidate Andrew Yang , said the Yang campaign would regularly stop at four to five events per day , and that Yang would end up shaking “ hundreds ” of hands a day .
“ I ’ m a firm believer — and I feel like a lot of folks in the industry are firm believers — that these types of conversations are helpful , ” Sanchez said , pointing to public Q & A events and local press briefings as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ politicians aren ’ t campaigning they ’ re at risk .
Several Republican politicians put themselves in self-quarantine in the past week , after someone who had attended last month ’ s Conservative Political Action Conference tested positive for coronavirus .
Also , a campaign has to think about more than just the candidate ’ s wellbeing .
Anyone attending large gatherings where they ’ ll be in close contact with strangers in an area where coronavirus is spreading is at risk of infection .
It ’ s why Ohio ’ s governor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gatherings , a request the campaigns decided to heed , or why people who attended business conferences where an attendee later tested positive for the virus have voluntarily offered to isolate themselves .
Campaigns that continue to host mass gatherings , whether attended by the candidate or not , are putting their supporters ’ and their communities ’ health at risk .
There are also many other campaign functions that depend on increasing person-to-person contact — indeed , that ’ s the point of most of them .
“ Beyond just those in-person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ things like canvassing .
Is it safe for canvassers to be out knocking on doors ?
It pretty much affects most pieces of the operation , ” Sanchez said .
For now , both the Biden and Sanders camps are being cautious about making predictions for future campaign events , saying they will consult with public health officials and make calls on a case-by-case basis .
Trump has also refused to stop shaking hands with the public amid the outbreak ( even though the self-proclaimed germaphobe has previously talked about how easy it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and called handshaking “ barbaric ” ) .
But as coronavirus continues to spread , more local health officials and politicians may follow Ohio ’ s lead .
“ It ’ s probably not the worst thing in the world for septuagenarian candidates to cut back on rallies and travel , ” said Lis Smith , the senior communications advisor for former candidate Pete Buttigieg , who also spoke out this week about rethinking campaign norms during an outbreak .
“ But now the hard work will fall to campaigns to figure out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a moment without precedent and it will be interesting to see what campaigns rise to the challenge of meeting it .
”

Campaigning at the best of times takes a toll on the body. Between the lack of sleep, poor diet, and stress — not to mention hand-to-hand exposure to hundreds of strangers every day — keeping a candidate healthy is always an uphill battle.
That was the case before the novel coronavirus reshaped American society and politics. Now, with a global health emergency at our door and the three main presidential candidates remaining all in the highest-risk age group (Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and President Trump are all in their 70s), the lifestyle of a politician is even more risky.
Huge amounts of a campaign present problems in the context of a pandemic — for the politician, his campaign and his supporters. Both the Biden and Sanders campaigns canceled rallies in Ohio this week, but that could only be the first of many changes.
Coronavirus spreads through close contact with infected people, and the Centers For Disease Control is recommending people in high-risk groups, including older adults, avoid things like close contact with strangers and large gatherings. In other words, all that hand shaking and baby kissing is not ideal. Huge, crowded rallies where a septuagenarian leans in close for photos with hundreds of strangers is a huge risk.
“It’s the antithesis of the recommendations,” said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. “However, it’s important to remember that these are recommendations. Nobody expects these recommendations will apply 100 percent of the time to 100 percent of the people.”
Schaffner said everyone should evaluate the importance of an event before attending. His wife, he said, has stopped going to bridge club, for example. The candidates, however, are playing a game with slightly higher stakes.
“It must be obvious that our political leaders — whether they’re the Democrat candidates or the White House — consider political activity pretty essential,” he said. “I trust that their aides are giving them lots of good hand sanitizers because there’s a lot of gripping and grinning that goes on there.”
All that gripping and grinning puts candidates and their staff at risk. Research has shown that shaking hands is an extremely effective way of transferring microbes. In a 2014 study, researchers found that shaking hands transferred 10 times more microbes than a fist bump when they tried the different greetings after dipping their gloved hands into E. Coli. And the more people a candidate is interacting with, the higher the risk of infection, Schaffner said. “Your chances of catching a fish increase the more times you throw your line into the pond.”
But those hand shakes are a huge part of a daily campaign. Erick Sanchez, who worked as traveling press secretary for former candidate Andrew Yang, said the Yang campaign would regularly stop at four to five events per day, and that Yang would end up shaking “hundreds” of hands a day.
“I’m a firm believer — and I feel like a lot of folks in the industry are firm believers — that these types of conversations are helpful,” Sanchez said, pointing to public Q&A events and local press briefings as key to a campaign.
Even when politicians aren’t campaigning they’re at risk. Several Republican politicians put themselves in self-quarantine in the past week, after someone who had attended last month’s Conservative Political Action Conference tested positive for coronavirus.
Also, a campaign has to think about more than just the candidate’s wellbeing. Anyone attending large gatherings where they’ll be in close contact with strangers in an area where coronavirus is spreading is at risk of infection. It’s why Ohio’s governor asked for groups to consider cancelling large gatherings, a request the campaigns decided to heed, or why people who attended business conferences where an attendee later tested positive for the virus have voluntarily offered to isolate themselves. Campaigns that continue to host mass gatherings, whether attended by the candidate or not, are putting their supporters’ and their communities’ health at risk.
There are also many other campaign functions that depend on increasing person-to-person contact — indeed, that’s the point of most of them. “Beyond just those in-person rallies, you’re thinking about things like canvassing. Is it safe for canvassers to be out knocking on doors? It pretty much affects most pieces of the operation,” Sanchez said.
For now, both the Biden and Sanders camps are being cautious about making predictions for future campaign events, saying they will consult with public health officials and make calls on a case-by-case basis. Trump has also refused to stop shaking hands with the public amid the outbreak (even though the self-proclaimed germaphobe has previously talked about how easy it is to catch infections in this way and called handshaking “barbaric”). But as coronavirus continues to spread, more local health officials and politicians may follow Ohio’s lead.
“It’s probably not the worst thing in the world for septuagenarian candidates to cut back on rallies and travel,” said Lis Smith, the senior communications advisor for former candidate Pete Buttigieg, who also spoke out this week about rethinking campaign norms during an outbreak. “But now the hard work will fall to campaigns to figure out how they reach voters. This is a moment without precedent and it will be interesting to see what campaigns rise to the challenge of meeting it.”


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-11--Politics Podcast: Is The Democratic Primary Over?

In a late-night edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , the crew reacts to the results from Tuesday night ’ @ @ @ @ @ Missouri , Mississippi , North Dakota , Idaho and Washington .
They also ask if @ @ @ @ @ , given former Vice President Joe Biden ’ s good night .
You can listen @ @ @ @ @ the “ play ” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in @ @ @ @ @ or your favorite podcast platform .
If you are new to podcasts , learn how @ @ @ @ @ Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving @ @ @ @ @ on iTunes .
Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. @ @ @ @ @ in touch by email , on Twitter or in the comments .

In a late-night edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the results from Tuesday night’s elections in Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Dakota, Idaho and Washington. They also ask if the Democratic primary is over, given former Vice President Joe Biden’s good night.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: The Democratic primary is no longer competitive
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-11--Joe Biden Now Has A Clear Path To Be The Democratic Nominee

A week after an impressive Super Tuesday performance gave him the upper hand in the Democratic nomination race , former Vice President Joe Biden solidified his position last night with another round of big wins .
Most importantly , Biden handily won Michigan — the big delegate prize on March 10 — by a double-digit margin .
It was a state that Sen. Bernie Sanders won in 2016 and probably needed to win again to reset the 2020 race .
Biden ’ s victories on Tuesday night largely matched our expectations , but that in and of itself confirmed Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contest .
Coming in , Biden looked almost certain to win Michigan , Mississippi and Missouri — and he did so emphatically .
Biden also appeared to be a solid bet to carry Idaho despite the fact Sanders has been strong in western states — and Biden won there by 6 percentage points .
The outcomes in the states that remain uncalled — North Dakota and Washington — look uncertain , but the states also have many votes left to count and , however the results shake out , they won ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out way ahead on Tuesday .
Biden ’ s big wins were comprehensive .
He won by 16 points in Michigan and carried every county .
In Missouri , where Sanders lost by less than a point in 2016 , Biden won by 25 .
The preliminary exit poll found that he carried both white and black voters by at least 20 points each in Missouri , including an 18-point advantage among white non-college graduates , who made up a plurality of the electorate .
In Mississippi , Biden won by 66 points @ @ @ @ @ @ @ among black voters , who made up around two-thirds of the state ’ s electorate .
And it looks as if Sanders will miss the 15 percent delegate threshold in two Mississippi congressional districts ( and maybe statewide too ) , helping Biden vacuum up more delegates .
Biden ’ s hot streak will likely burn into next week with four delegate-rich contests in Florida , Illinois , Ohio and Arizona .
Sanders had less than a 1 in 10 shot of victory in any one of those states before yesterday ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the same was true for Georgia , which votes on March 24 .
As of 2 a.m. Wednesday , Biden had added 64 net delegates to his lead over Sanders with Tuesday ’ s contests , and now has 806 pledged delegates to 662 for Sanders , according to ABC News .
If Biden wins around 60 percent of delegates in contests moving forward — roughly his share yesterday — he will be close to a pledged delegate majority by late May and a shoo-in to have a sizable plurality .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the nomination — barring something very unexpected happening — is almost nonexistent .
With Biden on track to reel off more wins in the coming weeks and build toward a delegate majority , he spoke about party unity in his speech on Tuesday night .
“ I want to thank Bernie Sanders and his supporters for their tireless energy and their passion , ” said Biden .
“ We share a common goal , and together we ’ ll defeat Donald Trump .
We ’ ll defeat him together.
” All eyes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some tough decisions to make going forward .
On top of his bleak delegate outlook , post-Super Tuesday national polls showed Biden ahead of Sanders by more than 15 points , suggesting the race just isn ’ t all that close .
Remarkably , then , the 2020 Democratic primary may not be as competitive as the 2016 one , even if Sanders fights on despite having little chance of winning a delegate edge .
Sanders didn ’ t speak on Tuesday night , perhaps a sign that his campaign is figuring out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the COVID-19 virus led Sanders and Biden to cancel campaign rallies Tuesday night . )
But before we get ahead of ourselves trying to write the conclusion to the 2020 Democratic race , Sanders says he will still be at Sunday ’ s debate in Phoenix , which won ’ t have a live audience because of fears about COVID-19 .
That event may prove to be Sanders ’ s last gasp , but debates can change the dynamics of a primary race .
Yet unless Biden dramatically screws up — never say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ imagine the debate altering the race ’ s trajectory enough to threaten Biden ’ s position .
Sanders may have three options for how to proceed at this point .
He could drop out — which would thrill establishment leaders in the Democratic Party — but that still seems unlikely in the immediate future .
He could continue running to win , which would necessitate going hard after Biden and potentially exacerbating divisions within the party , an approach that could even backfire on Sanders if he ’ s seen as helping President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continue his campaign less to win than demonstrate the power and influence of progressives within the Democratic Party in the hopes of winning more concessions .
Even if Sanders opts to fight on , which would certainly be in keeping with his style , it ’ s unclear where he can win unless something big changes .
While the race may not be over , it increasingly seems that we ’ re not that far away from calling Biden the presumptive Democratic nominee .

A week after an impressive Super Tuesday performance gave him the upper hand in the Democratic nomination race, former Vice President Joe Biden solidified his position last night with another round of big wins. Most importantly, Biden handily won Michigan — the big delegate prize on March 10 — by a double-digit margin. It was a state that Sen. Bernie Sanders won in 2016 and probably needed to win again to reset the 2020 race.
Biden’s victories on Tuesday night largely matched our expectations, but that in and of itself confirmed Biden’s massive advantage in the overall contest. Coming in, Biden looked almost certain to win Michigan, Mississippi and Missouri — and he did so emphatically. Biden also appeared to be a solid bet to carry Idaho despite the fact Sanders has been strong in western states — and Biden won there by 6 percentage points. The outcomes in the states that remain uncalled — North Dakota and Washington — look uncertain, but the states also have many votes left to count and, however the results shake out, they won’t change the fundamental fact that Biden came out way ahead on Tuesday.
Biden’s big wins were comprehensive. He won by 16 points in Michigan and carried every county. In Missouri, where Sanders lost by less than a point in 2016, Biden won by 25. The preliminary exit poll found that he carried both white and black voters by at least 20 points each in Missouri, including an 18-point advantage among white non-college graduates, who made up a plurality of the electorate. In Mississippi, Biden won by 66 points, fueled by a massive 77-point lead among black voters, who made up around two-thirds of the state’s electorate. And it looks as if Sanders will miss the 15 percent delegate threshold in two Mississippi congressional districts (and maybe statewide too), helping Biden vacuum up more delegates.
Biden’s hot streak will likely burn into next week with four delegate-rich contests in Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona. Sanders had less than a 1 in 10 shot of victory in any one of those states before yesterday’s vote, according to our forecast, and the same was true for Georgia, which votes on March 24. As of 2 a.m. Wednesday, Biden had added 64 net delegates to his lead over Sanders with Tuesday’s contests, and now has 806 pledged delegates to 662 for Sanders, according to ABC News. If Biden wins around 60 percent of delegates in contests moving forward — roughly his share yesterday — he will be close to a pledged delegate majority by late May and a shoo-in to have a sizable plurality. The point is, Sanders’s path to the nomination — barring something very unexpected happening — is almost nonexistent.
With Biden on track to reel off more wins in the coming weeks and build toward a delegate majority, he spoke about party unity in his speech on Tuesday night. “I want to thank Bernie Sanders and his supporters for their tireless energy and their passion,” said Biden. “We share a common goal, and together we’ll defeat Donald Trump. We’ll defeat him together.”
All eyes now turn to Sanders, who has some tough decisions to make going forward. On top of his bleak delegate outlook, post-Super Tuesday national polls showed Biden ahead of Sanders by more than 15 points, suggesting the race just isn’t all that close. Remarkably, then, the 2020 Democratic primary may not be as competitive as the 2016 one, even if Sanders fights on despite having little chance of winning a delegate edge. Sanders didn’t speak on Tuesday night, perhaps a sign that his campaign is figuring out its next steps. (Concerns about the COVID-19 virus led Sanders and Biden to cancel campaign rallies Tuesday night.)
But before we get ahead of ourselves trying to write the conclusion to the 2020 Democratic race, Sanders says he will still be at Sunday’s debate in Phoenix, which won’t have a live audience because of fears about COVID-19. That event may prove to be Sanders’s last gasp, but debates can change the dynamics of a primary race. Yet unless Biden dramatically screws up — never say never — it’s hard to imagine the debate altering the race’s trajectory enough to threaten Biden’s position.
Sanders may have three options for how to proceed at this point. He could drop out — which would thrill establishment leaders in the Democratic Party — but that still seems unlikely in the immediate future. He could continue running to win, which would necessitate going hard after Biden and potentially exacerbating divisions within the party, an approach that could even backfire on Sanders if he’s seen as helping President Trump. Lastly, Sanders could also continue his campaign less to win than demonstrate the power and influence of progressives within the Democratic Party in the hopes of winning more concessions.
Even if Sanders opts to fight on, which would certainly be in keeping with his style, it’s unclear where he can win unless something big changes. While the race may not be over, it increasingly seems that we’re not that far away from calling Biden the presumptive Democratic nominee.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-10--What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries

What Went Down In Michigan , Washington And Other Democratic Primaries

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