fivethirtyeight--2020-06-10--Do You Know How Divided White And Black Americans Are On Racism?

After years of high-profile videos of police killing black people — most recently George Floyd — many white people have come to recognize the police brutality and systemic racism that people of color have rallied against for years .
But polls still show a big gap in how black and white Americans understand race relations , police violence , protests and progress .
For example , a few days after Floyd ’ s death , YouGov asked Americans if police treat black people differently from white people .
How do you think white and black respondents answered ?
On the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and white respondents agree that police don ’ t treat black and white people equally , but on the other hand , the gap here is still pretty stark .
That might help explain why black and white Americans are divided in their support for the protests .
How divided do you think they are ?
That ’ s another pretty big gap , and it raises a thorny issue — white Americans increasingly recognize racism and police brutality against African Americans as a problem , but don ’ t necessarily support protests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ something to do with the way white and black Americans perceive Floyd ’ s death .
Again , a large gap , even if another question in that poll showed that roughly three-quarters of both white and black respondents strongly approved of firing the officers involved .
But that ’ s also a very specific , well-documented and high-profile case .
When asked about police behavior in general , such as whether police are more likely to use excessive force against a black person , Americans are more divided .
See if you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perhaps even more telling is the way Americans describe their personal feelings toward police .
Unlike police killings , the effects of racism in the larger criminal justice system aren ’ t often captured on video , which can make it harder to raise awareness of its insidious inequality .
Perhaps as a result , white Americans are less likely to agree with black Americans on this issue than on questions about Floyd ’ s death .
The latest round of protests may have swayed public opinion in the last few weeks , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans were divided on how much progress they thought the U.S. has made on equal rights .
Given the persistent gap in how white and black Americans view race , discrimination , police violence and protests , it ’ s perhaps not surprising that the groups don ’ t have the same outlook on whether the country can ever achieve equal rights .
How do you think black and white Americans feel about the future ?

Do You Know How Divided White And Black Americans Are On Racism?
After years of high-profile videos of police killing black people — most recently George Floyd — many white people have come to recognize the police brutality and systemic racism that people of color have rallied against for years. But polls still show a big gap in how black and white Americans understand race relations, police violence, protests and progress.
For example, a few days after Floyd’s death, YouGov asked Americans if police treat black people differently from white people. How do you think white and black respondents answered?
What percentage of black and white respondents do you think said black people and white people do not receive equal treatment from the police? 0% 25 50 75 100 63% 91% 63% of white and 91% of black respondents said police treat people unequally based on their race, a difference of 28 points. Source: YouGov, May 29-30, 2020 Guess
On the one hand, a majority of black and white respondents agree that police don’t treat black and white people equally, but on the other hand, the gap here is still pretty stark. That might help explain why black and white Americans are divided in their support for the protests. How divided do you think they are?
What percentage of black and white respondents do you think said they “strongly” or “somewhat” support the protests in response to Floyd’s death? 0% 25 50 75 100 49% 77% 49% of white and 77% of black respondents said they “strongly” or “somewhat” support the protests, a difference of 28 points. Source: Morning Consult, May 31-June 1, 2020 Guess
That’s another pretty big gap, and it raises a thorny issue — white Americans increasingly recognize racism and police brutality against African Americans as a problem, but don’t necessarily support protests advocating for change. That might have something to do with the way white and black Americans perceive Floyd’s death.
What percentage of black and white respondents do you think said race was a “major factor” in Floyd’s death? 0% 25 50 75 100 55% 88% 55% of white and 88% of black respondents said race was a “major factor,” a difference of 33 points. Source: YouGov, May 29-30, 2020 Guess
Again, a large gap, even if another question in that poll showed that roughly three-quarters of both white and black respondents strongly approved of firing the officers involved. But that’s also a very specific, well-documented and high-profile case. When asked about police behavior in general, such as whether police are more likely to use excessive force against a black person, Americans are more divided. See if you can guess just how divided.
What percentage of black and white respondents do you think said that when faced with a difficult or dangerous situation, police officers are more likely to use excessive force if the person they’re dealing with is black? 0% 25 50 75 100 49% 87% 49% of white and 87% of black respondents said police are more likely to use force against a black person, a difference of 38 points. Source: Monmouth University, May 28-June 1, 2020 Guess
And perhaps even more telling is the way Americans describe their personal feelings toward police.
What percentage of black and white respondents do you think said they have a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in local police and law enforcement to look out for the best interests of them and their family? 0% 25 50 75 100 77% 36% 36% of black and 77% of white respondents said they trust local police, a difference of 41 points. Source: Axios/Ipsos, May 29-June 1, 2020 Guess
Unlike police killings, the effects of racism in the larger criminal justice system aren’t often captured on video, which can make it harder to raise awareness of its insidious inequality. Perhaps as a result, white Americans are less likely to agree with black Americans on this issue than on questions about Floyd’s death.
What percentage of black and white respondents do you think said the criminal justice system “treats whites better”? 0% 25 50 75 100 57% 94% 57% of white and 94% of black respondents said white people are treated better by the criminal justice system, a difference of 37 points. Source: YouGov, May 29-30, 2020 Guess
The latest round of protests may have swayed public opinion in the last few weeks, but last year, black and white Americans were divided on how much progress they thought the U.S. has made on equal rights.
What percentage of black and white respondents do you think said our country hasn’t gone far enough in giving black people equal rights? 0% 25 50 75 100 37% 78% 37% of white and 78% of black respondents said our country hasn’t gone far enough toward equal rights, a difference of 41 points. Source: Pew Research Center, Jan. 22-Feb. 5, 2019 Guess
Given the persistent gap in how white and black Americans view race, discrimination, police violence and protests, it’s perhaps not surprising that the groups don’t have the same outlook on whether the country can ever achieve equal rights. How do you think black and white Americans feel about the future?


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-10--Georgia Was A Mess. Here’s What Else We Know About The June 9 Elections.

Tuesday ’ s primary elections were once again marred by serious problems at the polls , especially in Georgia .
However , in this case , the issues probably had less to do with the COVID-19 pandemic and more to do with the state ’ s own ineptitude .
Almost 90 percent of Georgia ’ s polling places were open on Tuesday , which is far more than in many other states that have held primaries recently .
Only one problem : Georgia ’ s new voting machines , which were put in place after claims of voter suppression in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well as hoped .
There ’ s no evidence of foul play , but the state was clearly not prepared to hold an election with the new equipment .
The state apparently passed on what it deemed the best voting machines available , opting for a cheaper vendor that had never installed so much equipment in such a short period of time .
And some polling places in Cobb , DeKalb , Fulton and Gwinnett counties opened late because of problems booting up the machines ; some didn ’ t even receive the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to open .
Poll workers in Columbus also had trouble setting up the ballot printers , which they blamed on lack of training due to the coronavirus .
And at one precinct , workers spent an hour trying to figure out how to insert the cards that record votes into the new machines — before figuring out they were putting them in upside-down .
There were also numerous reports of voting machines simply not working , which led to some of the longest lines .
The problems seemed to be most acute in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assuring equal voting access in the general election .
[ Related : What The June 2 Primaries Can Tell Us About November ] Officials soon started finger-pointing , with the secretary of state ’ s office saying there were no actual malfunctions , just user error .
But county elections officials sniped back that the secretary ’ s office had failed to adequately prepare them .
By the end of the day , both Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and state House Speaker David Ralston had announced they were opening investigations into what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ severe that many polling places stayed open late : Voters had until 9 p.m. to get in line in Fulton County , and one precinct in DeKalb County was open until 10:10 p.m .
This meant results were reported late , so many Georgians went to bed not knowing who won many of the day ’ s key elections .
Georgia ’ s marquee contest was likely the Democratic primary for Senate , but investigative filmmaker and former House candidate Jon Ossoff may have fallen just short of avoiding an August runoff — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he had 49 percent of the vote , but many votes remain outstanding in metro Atlanta , where he performed well .
If there ’ s a runoff , it ’ s not yet clear who Ossoff would face — former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson was at 15 percent while 2018 lieutenant governor candidate Sarah Riggs Amico had 13 percent .
Georgia also had a number of competitive congressional primaries .
In the 7th Congressional District , physician Richard McCormick appears to have avoided a runoff for the GOP nomination in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the vote and 97 percent of precincts reporting .
The Democratic race , on the other hand , appears to be headed to a runoff as the 2018 nominee Carolyn Bourdeaux fell a bit short of 50 percent .
She will face state Rep. Brenda Lopez Romero .
Meanwhile , the GOP primaries in the solidly Republican 9th and 14th congressional districts will require runoffs as well .
In the 9th Congressional District , state Rep. Matt Gurtler and gun store owner Andrew Clyde advanced from a crowded field with only about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 14th Congressional District , businesswoman Marjorie Greene and neurosurgeon John Cowan both advanced , although Greene won substantially more of the vote ( 41 percent vs. 20 percent ) .
Lastly , it looks as if the safely blue 13th Congressional District will also feature a runoff , with Democratic Rep. David Scott winning 47 percent of the vote against former state Rep. Keisha Waites , who had 31 percent .
Other states holding primaries yesterday also experienced problems , albeit not on Georgia ’ s scale .
At least a few voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not receive the absentee ballots they requested .
And there were also reports of long lines in South Carolina and Nevada .
However , that probably had more to do with the pandemic than problems like Georgia ’ s .
For instance , Nevada announced that it would hold a predominantly mail-in primary months ago , but with its culture of in-person voting , that meant some long lines in the one polling place open in Reno ’ s Washoe County ( home of 315,646 registered voters ) and the three in Las @ @ @ @ @ @ @ registered voters ) .
By contrast , South Carolina managed to open around 2,000 of its usual 2,250 polling places , but some were understaffed , leading to long waits .
And the consolidation of several precincts into the same polling place caused poorly trained poll workers to give some voters ballots for the wrong state House district .
Nevada results were late to arrive , as in-person voting was kept open late to accommodate the crowds of voters still waiting in line , but here ’ s what we know about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In Nevada ’ s 3rd District , it looks as if former wrestler Dan Rodimer is on track to defeat former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz , 44 percent to 33 percent .
That means Rodimer will now likely face Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in November in this swing district .
In the 4th District , the picture is less clear as a fair number of votes are outstanding in Clark County , but former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant is in the lead with 34 percent of the vote , although insurance agent and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behind at 30 percent .
In South Carolina , one of the more talked-about House primaries ended up being rather one-sided .
In South Carolina ’ s 1st District , state Rep. Nancy Mace won the Republican nomination , defeating Mount Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing by a little over 30 points .
That means Mace will now face Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham in a seat Trump carried by 13 points in 2016 , according to Daily Kos Elections , making it one of the top GOP targets in the House .
She @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expand their small number of women representatives — currently just 13 of the 197 Republicans in the House are women .
And finally , West Virginia didn ’ t end up with much drama in its Republican primary for governor .
Even though Gov .
Jim Justice won his seat in 2016 as a Democrat before switching parties in 2017 , he still easily dispatched his two main rivals to win renomination with 63 percent of the vote .
On the Democratic side , however , the Mountain State offered some pizazz as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defeated populist community organizer Stephen Smith by about 6 points , 39 percent to 33 percent .
Salango is endorsed by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin — one of the only remaining statewide Democrats in rapidly reddening West Virginia — but he will enter the general election as a big underdog against Justice .
Why switching to vote-by-mail is tougher than it seems | FiveThirtyEight

Tuesday’s primary elections were once again marred by serious problems at the polls, especially in Georgia. However, in this case, the issues probably had less to do with the COVID-19 pandemic and more to do with the state’s own ineptitude.
Almost 90 percent of Georgia’s polling places were open on Tuesday, which is far more than in many other states that have held primaries recently. Only one problem: Georgia’s new voting machines, which were put in place after claims of voter suppression in 2018, didn’t work as well as hoped. There’s no evidence of foul play, but the state was clearly not prepared to hold an election with the new equipment.
The state apparently passed on what it deemed the best voting machines available, opting for a cheaper vendor that had never installed so much equipment in such a short period of time. And some polling places in Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett counties opened late because of problems booting up the machines; some didn’t even receive the necessary equipment until after polls were supposed to open. Poll workers in Columbus also had trouble setting up the ballot printers, which they blamed on lack of training due to the coronavirus. And at one precinct, workers spent an hour trying to figure out how to insert the cards that record votes into the new machines — before figuring out they were putting them in upside-down.
There were also numerous reports of voting machines simply not working, which led to some of the longest lines. The problems seemed to be most acute in metro Atlanta, raising fears of problems assuring equal voting access in the general election.
[Related: What The June 2 Primaries Can Tell Us About November]
Officials soon started finger-pointing, with the secretary of state’s office saying there were no actual malfunctions, just user error. But county elections officials sniped back that the secretary’s office had failed to adequately prepare them. By the end of the day, both Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and state House Speaker David Ralston had announced they were opening investigations into what went wrong.
The problems were so severe that many polling places stayed open late: Voters had until 9 p.m. to get in line in Fulton County, and one precinct in DeKalb County was open until 10:10 p.m. This meant results were reported late, so many Georgians went to bed not knowing who won many of the day’s key elections. Georgia’s marquee contest was likely the Democratic primary for Senate, but investigative filmmaker and former House candidate Jon Ossoff may have fallen just short of avoiding an August runoff — based on results as of 8 a.m., he had 49 percent of the vote, but many votes remain outstanding in metro Atlanta, where he performed well. If there’s a runoff, it’s not yet clear who Ossoff would face — former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson was at 15 percent while 2018 lieutenant governor candidate Sarah Riggs Amico had 13 percent.
Georgia also had a number of competitive congressional primaries. In the 7th Congressional District, physician Richard McCormick appears to have avoided a runoff for the GOP nomination in this Atlanta-area open seat, with 55 percent of the vote and 97 percent of precincts reporting. The Democratic race, on the other hand, appears to be headed to a runoff as the 2018 nominee Carolyn Bourdeaux fell a bit short of 50 percent. She will face state Rep. Brenda Lopez Romero. Meanwhile, the GOP primaries in the solidly Republican 9th and 14th congressional districts will require runoffs as well. In the 9th Congressional District, state Rep. Matt Gurtler and gun store owner Andrew Clyde advanced from a crowded field with only about 20 percent each, and in the 14th Congressional District, businesswoman Marjorie Greene and neurosurgeon John Cowan both advanced, although Greene won substantially more of the vote (41 percent vs. 20 percent). Lastly, it looks as if the safely blue 13th Congressional District will also feature a runoff, with Democratic Rep. David Scott winning 47 percent of the vote against former state Rep. Keisha Waites, who had 31 percent.
[Related: The Latest Political Polls Collected By FiveThirtyEight]
Other states holding primaries yesterday also experienced problems, albeit not on Georgia’s scale. At least a few voters in South Carolina and West Virginia did not receive the absentee ballots they requested. And there were also reports of long lines in South Carolina and Nevada. However, that probably had more to do with the pandemic than problems like Georgia’s. For instance, Nevada announced that it would hold a predominantly mail-in primary months ago, but with its culture of in-person voting, that meant some long lines in the one polling place open in Reno’s Washoe County (home of 315,646 registered voters) and the three in Las Vegas’s Clark County (1,331,067 registered voters). By contrast, South Carolina managed to open around 2,000 of its usual 2,250 polling places, but some were understaffed, leading to long waits. And the consolidation of several precincts into the same polling place caused poorly trained poll workers to give some voters ballots for the wrong state House district.
Subscribe to our coronavirus podcast, PODCAST-19
Nevada results were late to arrive, as in-person voting was kept open late to accommodate the crowds of voters still waiting in line, but here’s what we know about the two House races we were watching. In Nevada’s 3rd District, it looks as if former wrestler Dan Rodimer is on track to defeat former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz, 44 percent to 33 percent. That means Rodimer will now likely face Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in November in this swing district. In the 4th District, the picture is less clear as a fair number of votes are outstanding in Clark County, but former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant is in the lead with 34 percent of the vote, although insurance agent and veteran Sam Peters is not too far behind at 30 percent.
In South Carolina, one of the more talked-about House primaries ended up being rather one-sided. In South Carolina’s 1st District, state Rep. Nancy Mace won the Republican nomination, defeating Mount Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing by a little over 30 points. That means Mace will now face Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham in a seat Trump carried by 13 points in 2016, according to Daily Kos Elections, making it one of the top GOP targets in the House. She will also give Republicans an opportunity to expand their small number of women representatives — currently just 13 of the 197 Republicans in the House are women.
And finally, West Virginia didn’t end up with much drama in its Republican primary for governor. Even though Gov. Jim Justice won his seat in 2016 as a Democrat before switching parties in 2017, he still easily dispatched his two main rivals to win renomination with 63 percent of the vote. On the Democratic side, however, the Mountain State offered some pizazz as more moderate Kanawha County Commissioner Ben Salango defeated populist community organizer Stephen Smith by about 6 points, 39 percent to 33 percent. Salango is endorsed by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin — one of the only remaining statewide Democrats in rapidly reddening West Virginia — but he will enter the general election as a big underdog against Justice.
Why switching to vote-by-mail is tougher than it seems | FiveThirtyEight


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-10--How Black Americans View Their Racial Identity

From Beyoncé and Oprah Winfrey to the usually apolitical Michael Jordan , basically every famous black person in America has made some kind of public statement on the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis and the broader issue of how police treat black people .
Former President Barack Obama , who has generally refrained from making public comments on major news events since leaving the White House , has weighed in several times in very personal terms .
Polls suggest that black Americans are significantly more likely than white Americans and Hispanic Americans to say that they watched the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the police and the subsequent news coverage of his death , that his race was a factor in what happened to him , and that the police treat black people unfairly .
Of course , it ’ s not just black celebrities or just black former presidents who have spoken out — lots of Americans across races and parties have voiced concern about Floyd ’ s killing and what it says about the nation and its policies .
And part of the black reaction can probably be explained by partisanship .
The general @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Floyd ’ s race was a factor in his death and that the criminal justice system is biased against black people .
So it ’ s not surprising that black Americans are taking that view , as about 90 percent of them have voted for Democratic candidates in recent national elections .
Another factor , however , likely explains the collective black response to what has been happening in America over the past two weeks : The overwhelming majority of black Americans view their racial identity as a core part of their overall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kinship with other black people has likely been heightened by Floyd ’ s killing and the resulting debate over the status of black people in the United States .
About 52 percent of non-Hispanic black Americans said they viewed being black as “ extremely important ” to how they thought about themselves , according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted last year .
Another 22 percent said it was “ very important.
” These numbers were considerably lower for non-Hispanic Asian , non-Hispanic white and Hispanic Americans .
( More on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a bit — it ’ s complicated . )
Pew polling from 2016 and 2017 also showed that black people were significantly more likely than other demographic groups to say that their race was central to their identities .
Similarly , Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape polling from last December found that 75 percent of black Americans said their ethnicity and race was “ very important to their identity , ” significantly higher than the share of Hispanic Americans ( 58 percent ) , Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders ( 40 percent ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who said the same .
Another 15 percent of black Americans said that their race was “ somewhat important.
” This heightened sense of black identity does not appear to be a particularly recent phenomenon — or one that was inspired by the Black Lives Matter movement , which began to emerge in 2013 .
In 2012 , about 70 percent of black Americans said that being black was either extremely or very important to their identity , about the same proportion as in 2016 , according to surveys conducted as part of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both years , black Americans expressed much greater ties to their identity than white or Hispanic Americans did .
[ Related : Do You Know How Divided White And Black Americans Are On Racism ? ]
Part of the story here is about ethnic and racial groups other than black Americans — why aren ’ t an overwhelming majority of white , Hispanic or Asian Americans saying that their race or ethnicity is very important to their personal identities ?
This is not a simple question , and we won ’ t try @ @ @ @ @ @ @ State political science and African American studies professor Candis Watts Smith , who has written extensively about identity , said that “ Asian ” and “ Hispanic ” aren ’ t really the identities that some people who fall under these groups associate themselves with .
Hispanic Americans , she argued , might think of themselves as Cuban or Mexican but not embrace the broader Latino or Hispanic labels .
Similarly , some Americans of Chinese or Japanese ancestry might not describe themselves as Asian or feel much attachment to that identity .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ not to think of themselves racially , she said , because “ whiteness is viewed as normal by white people.
” Some scholars , most notably Duke University political scientist Ashley Jardina , emphasize that a significant number of white Americans do define themselves by their race , though still at lower rates than black Americans .
Her research suggests that people with high levels of white identity tended to vote for Trump in 2016 , and you can imagine more liberal-leaning white Americans would avoid talking about their pride as white people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Also , at least one poll , the 2016 Collaborative Multi-Racial Post-Election Survey , suggests that Asian Americans and Latino Americans express fairly similar views to black Americans in terms of having a positive view of their association with their racial or ethnic group .
That said , experts agree that black Americans express high levels of connection to their blackness .
Karyn Lacy , a University of Michigan sociology professor who wrote a book on black middle-class people living in the Washington , D.C. , suburbs , said that the people she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and grandchildren to be close to the broader black community .
“ There is a lot of joy in being black , ” Lacy said of the people she interviewed .
“ This is a really important point .
Most of the media coverage of black people is negative .
Scholars have spent a lot of time documenting the racial discrimination blacks experience .
We do need to know about how and why discrimination persists .
But there is very little attention to all the good things about being black.
” “ We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ black people wake up every morning thinking , ‘ Ugh , I ’ ve got to be black today , and it ’ s going to be awful.
’ None of the people I interviewed held that view , ” Lacy added .
“ They take a lot of pride in being black and worry that their kids might not embrace being black with the same enthusiasm.
” [ Related : How The Police See Issues Of Race And Policing ] The centrality of racial identity to black Americans is important to consider @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mentioned earlier that black attitudes about policing could be explained in part by partisanship , namely that the overwhelming majority of black people vote Democratic .
But that skips over something that ’ s extremely important to understand : Why are black people so much more Democratic-leaning than other ethnic and racial groups ?
Part of the answer sits in the power of black identity — scholars argue that , to some extent , black Americans vote as a collective to defend the broader group and sometimes shame and discourage other black people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collective .
“ Nobody likes Kanye right now , ” Smith joked , noting that many black people have become frustrated with Kanye West since he started associating himself with President Trump and making controversial comments on racial issues .
Black NBA players ’ doing everything they could to embrace Obama when he was president and then largely shunning Trump is no doubt related to those two presidents ’ divergent personas and political stands , as well as to partisanship .
But it ’ s tied to identity too — black NBA players @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being president and were angry after Trump slammed NFL players who knelt during the national anthem to protest racial inequality in America .
Winfrey , in her decades as a celebrity , has generally avoided partisan politics .
But she was very vocal in backing Obama during his 2008 presidential campaign and Stacey Abrams in her 2018 Georgia gubernatorial run .
Obama became America ’ s first black president ; Abrams would have been the nation ’ s first-ever black female governor .
“ Their identity stems from lived experiences with discrimination , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ promises , empty rhetoric , ” said Rosalee Clawson , a political science professor at Purdue University who studies the politics of race , class and gender .
“ I think we would be shocked if blacks didn ’ t share a sense of linked fate with their racial group.
” [ Related : 1968 Isn ’ t The Only Parallel For This Political Moment ] So it ’ s worth considering Floyd ’ s killing and the black community ’ s reaction to it in that context .
Police in the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kill black people at much higher rates than their 13 percent share of the U.S. population .
So perhaps men like Jordan and Obama see what happened to Floyd as something that could happen to them .
And it could .
But it ’ s also likely that these famous black men and women , like most black Americans , view being black as a big part of who they are , and so feel that they should speak out when an issue related to being black is all over the news .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ celebrities .
And they have [ black ] friends and neighbors .
And black celebrities face some of the same denigrating things [ based on their race ] as an average black person , ” said Smith .
Even rich black people think , “ It could have been me , it could have been my family member or my neighbor or a member of my community , ” said Smith .
Being black , she said , “ is always in their consciousness.
” FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast : Americans Dislike How Trump @ @ @ @

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

From Beyoncé and Oprah Winfrey to the usually apolitical Michael Jordan, basically every famous black person in America has made some kind of public statement on the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis and the broader issue of how police treat black people. Former President Barack Obama, who has generally refrained from making public comments on major news events since leaving the White House, has weighed in several times in very personal terms. Polls suggest that black Americans are significantly more likely than white Americans and Hispanic Americans to say that they watched the video of Floyd’s interaction with the police and the subsequent news coverage of his death, that his race was a factor in what happened to him, and that the police treat black people unfairly.
Of course, it’s not just black celebrities or just black former presidents who have spoken out — lots of Americans across races and parties have voiced concern about Floyd’s killing and what it says about the nation and its policies. And part of the black reaction can probably be explained by partisanship. The general position of the Democratic Party is that Floyd’s race was a factor in his death and that the criminal justice system is biased against black people. So it’s not surprising that black Americans are taking that view, as about 90 percent of them have voted for Democratic candidates in recent national elections.
Another factor, however, likely explains the collective black response to what has been happening in America over the past two weeks: The overwhelming majority of black Americans view their racial identity as a core part of their overall identity, and this black identity and kinship with other black people has likely been heightened by Floyd’s killing and the resulting debate over the status of black people in the United States.
About 52 percent of non-Hispanic black Americans said they viewed being black as “extremely important” to how they thought about themselves, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted last year. Another 22 percent said it was “very important.” These numbers were considerably lower for non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic white and Hispanic Americans. (More on the story with Asian and Hispanic Americans in a bit — it’s complicated.)
Pew polling from 2016 and 2017 also showed that black people were significantly more likely than other demographic groups to say that their race was central to their identities.
Similarly, Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape polling from last December found that 75 percent of black Americans said their ethnicity and race was “very important to their identity,” significantly higher than the share of Hispanic Americans (58 percent), Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (40 percent) and white Americans (30 percent) who said the same. Another 15 percent of black Americans said that their race was “somewhat important.”
This heightened sense of black identity does not appear to be a particularly recent phenomenon — or one that was inspired by the Black Lives Matter movement, which began to emerge in 2013. In 2012, about 70 percent of black Americans said that being black was either extremely or very important to their identity, about the same proportion as in 2016, according to surveys conducted as part of the American National Election Studies. In both years, black Americans expressed much greater ties to their identity than white or Hispanic Americans did.
[Related: Do You Know How Divided White And Black Americans Are On Racism?]
Part of the story here is about ethnic and racial groups other than black Americans — why aren’t an overwhelming majority of white, Hispanic or Asian Americans saying that their race or ethnicity is very important to their personal identities? This is not a simple question, and we won’t try to unpack it all here. Penn State political science and African American studies professor Candis Watts Smith, who has written extensively about identity, said that “Asian” and “Hispanic” aren’t really the identities that some people who fall under these groups associate themselves with. Hispanic Americans, she argued, might think of themselves as Cuban or Mexican but not embrace the broader Latino or Hispanic labels. Similarly, some Americans of Chinese or Japanese ancestry might not describe themselves as Asian or feel much attachment to that identity. White Americans, Smith said, tend not to think of themselves racially, she said, because “whiteness is viewed as normal by white people.”
Some scholars, most notably Duke University political scientist Ashley Jardina, emphasize that a significant number of white Americans do define themselves by their race, though still at lower rates than black Americans. Her research suggests that people with high levels of white identity tended to vote for Trump in 2016, and you can imagine more liberal-leaning white Americans would avoid talking about their pride as white people to avoid being cast as racist. Also, at least one poll, the 2016 Collaborative Multi-Racial Post-Election Survey, suggests that Asian Americans and Latino Americans express fairly similar views to black Americans in terms of having a positive view of their association with their racial or ethnic group.
That said, experts agree that black Americans express high levels of connection to their blackness. Karyn Lacy, a University of Michigan sociology professor who wrote a book on black middle-class people living in the Washington, D.C., suburbs, said that the people she interviewed for her research wanted their children and grandchildren to be close to the broader black community.
“There is a lot of joy in being black,” Lacy said of the people she interviewed. “This is a really important point. Most of the media coverage of black people is negative. Scholars have spent a lot of time documenting the racial discrimination blacks experience. We do need to know about how and why discrimination persists. But there is very little attention to all the good things about being black.”
“We’re left with the impression that black people wake up every morning thinking, ‘Ugh, I’ve got to be black today, and it’s going to be awful.’ None of the people I interviewed held that view,” Lacy added. “They take a lot of pride in being black and worry that their kids might not embrace being black with the same enthusiasm.”
[Related: How The Police See Issues Of Race And Policing]
The centrality of racial identity to black Americans is important to consider in a lot of contexts. We mentioned earlier that black attitudes about policing could be explained in part by partisanship, namely that the overwhelming majority of black people vote Democratic. But that skips over something that’s extremely important to understand: Why are black people so much more Democratic-leaning than other ethnic and racial groups? Part of the answer sits in the power of black identity — scholars argue that, to some extent, black Americans vote as a collective to defend the broader group and sometimes shame and discourage other black people from voting Republican and breaking with that collective.
“Nobody likes Kanye right now,” Smith joked, noting that many black people have become frustrated with Kanye West since he started associating himself with President Trump and making controversial comments on racial issues.
Black NBA players’ doing everything they could to embrace Obama when he was president and then largely shunning Trump is no doubt related to those two presidents’ divergent personas and political stands, as well as to partisanship. But it’s tied to identity too — black NBA players took pride in a fellow black man being president and were angry after Trump slammed NFL players who knelt during the national anthem to protest racial inequality in America. Winfrey, in her decades as a celebrity, has generally avoided partisan politics. But she was very vocal in backing Obama during his 2008 presidential campaign and Stacey Abrams in her 2018 Georgia gubernatorial run. Obama became America’s first black president; Abrams would have been the nation’s first-ever black female governor.
“Their identity stems from lived experiences with discrimination, bias, violence, inequality, broken promises, empty rhetoric,” said Rosalee Clawson, a political science professor at Purdue University who studies the politics of race, class and gender. “I think we would be shocked if blacks didn’t share a sense of linked fate with their racial group.”
[Related: 1968 Isn’t The Only Parallel For This Political Moment]
So it’s worth considering Floyd’s killing and the black community’s reaction to it in that context. Police in the U.S. pull over, arrest and shoot and kill black people at much higher rates than their 13 percent share of the U.S. population. So perhaps men like Jordan and Obama see what happened to Floyd as something that could happen to them.
And it could. But it’s also likely that these famous black men and women, like most black Americans, view being black as a big part of who they are, and so feel that they should speak out when an issue related to being black is all over the news.
“Most of them were not always celebrities. And they have [black] friends and neighbors. And black celebrities face some of the same denigrating things [based on their race] as an average black person,” said Smith.
Even rich black people think, “It could have been me, it could have been my family member or my neighbor or a member of my community,” said Smith.
Being black, she said, “is always in their consciousness.”
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Americans Dislike How Trump Is Handling The Crises


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-11--Trump’s Approval Rating Has Dropped. How Much Does That Matter?

For the last three weeks , President Trump ’ s approval rating has steadily ticked downward .
It now sits at 41.1 percent , according to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker .
This is notable , because it ’ s the lowest Trump ’ s approval rating has been since the House of Representatives was in the midst of conducting its impeachment inquiry in November 2019 .
It ’ s not exactly hard to unpack why this is happening now .
Trump has gotten consistently low marks for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic , and many Americans also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s responded to the protests following the death of George Floyd , a black man killed by police officers last month .
The question is : Just how much does this latest shift in approval numbers matter ?
Trump , of course , has had an approval rating of 41 percent before .
In fact , it has hovered between 40 and 45 percent for most of his presidency , making his approval rating the steadiest of any president since World War II .
So it ’ s an open question where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from here .
It could have already hit its nadir , given how consistent the upper and lower bounds have been , in which case it might continue steadily along at this level .
Or it could slide even further and match some of his most unpopular moments as president .
For example , Trump ’ s approval rating hovered between 37 and 38 percent in the last two months of 2017 , following his “ both sides ” response to white supremacist violence in Charlottesville , Virginia .
Of course , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tick back up .
Remember that , prior to this downturn , Trump ’ s approval was actually the highest it had been since he took office in January 2017 — 45 to 46 percent , on average — likely thanks to a “ rally-around-the-flag ” bounce in response to his initial handling of the coronavirus crisis .
The important takeaway at this point , though , is that for all the talk of Trump being “ Teflon Don , ” he isn ’ t actually indestructible .
The downward movement in his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matters when it comes to public opinion of this president — his actions and events can , in fact , affect his standing .
And for that reason , his reelection chances could now be in real danger .
We don ’ t know if Trump ’ s approval will fall below 40 percent this time around , but it will matter whether Trump ’ s approval is closer to 40 percent or 45 percent in November .
Take the 2018 midterm elections .
Then , Trump ’ s approval rating was just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That was significant , considering that 90 percent of the voters who disapproved of the president backed Democrats in their House vote , according to the exit polls .
And already , with Trump ’ s approval rating slipping below 42 percent once again , we ’ re seeing poor numbers for him in head-to-head polls against the Democrats ’ presumptive nominee , former Vice President Joe Biden .
Throughout April and May , Biden led Trump by about 4 to 6 points in RealClearPolitics ’ average of national polls , but since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s death , Biden ’ s lead has increased to 8 points .
Other data points in recent national polls hint at how Trump ’ s poor approval rating could hurt him in November , too .
First , CNN/SSRS ’ s early June survey found Biden winning 92 percent of voters who disapproved of Trump , which is roughly in line with what the 2018 exit polls found .
Similarly , Emerson College found Biden winning 91 percent of those who disapproved of Trump in its early June poll .
What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if Trump gets overwhelming support from those who do approve of him — in particular Republicans — an approval rating of 40 percent probably won ’ t be enough to win , especially if Biden is winning 90 percent of the voters who disapprove of Trump , as this is a much larger group .
This is doubly true if independent voters are also turned off by Trump , as they backed him by 4 points in 2016 , according to the exit polls .
And there ’ s reason to believe Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That CNN poll found , for instance , Trump trailing by 11 points with this group , while a Monmouth University poll conducted in late May and early June had Trump down by 16 points .
Other surveys have found Trump in slightly better shape with independents , although still trailing Biden .
For instance , an early June poll from NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist had him behind by 4 points , and the latest survey from The Economist/YouGov had him down by 3 points .
The margins here matter , but at this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s losing among independents , which isn ’ t a good sign for his reelection chances .
Of course , with roughly five months to go until Election Day , Trump has time for his approval rating to bounce back , just as it has previously .
Trump ’ s actions , as we ’ ve seen , can negatively affect his ratings , but it ’ s also within his power to boost them .
But the more Trump ’ s approval rating hangs out around the 40 percent mark @ @ @ @ @ @ @ him attracting enough support to win reelection — especially given his inability to broaden his appeal .
And as we ’ ve said before , Trump ’ s base won ’ t be enough .

For the last three weeks, President Trump’s approval rating has steadily ticked downward. It now sits at 41.1 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker.
This is notable, because it’s the lowest Trump’s approval rating has been since the House of Representatives was in the midst of conducting its impeachment inquiry in November 2019.
It’s not exactly hard to unpack why this is happening now. Trump has gotten consistently low marks for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, and many Americans also don’t approve of how he’s responded to the protests following the death of George Floyd, a black man killed by police officers last month.
The question is: Just how much does this latest shift in approval numbers matter?
Trump, of course, has had an approval rating of 41 percent before. In fact, it has hovered between 40 and 45 percent for most of his presidency, making his approval rating the steadiest of any president since World War II.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Americans Dislike How Trump Is Handling The Crises
So it’s an open question where Trump’s approval rating will go from here. It could have already hit its nadir, given how consistent the upper and lower bounds have been, in which case it might continue steadily along at this level. Or it could slide even further and match some of his most unpopular moments as president. For example, Trump’s approval rating hovered between 37 and 38 percent in the last two months of 2017, following his “both sides” response to white supremacist violence in Charlottesville, Virginia. Of course, it’s also possible his numbers could tick back up. Remember that, prior to this downturn, Trump’s approval was actually the highest it had been since he took office in January 2017 — 45 to 46 percent, on average — likely thanks to a “rally-around-the-flag” bounce in response to his initial handling of the coronavirus crisis.
The important takeaway at this point, though, is that for all the talk of Trump being “Teflon Don,” he isn’t actually indestructible. The downward movement in his approval rating belies the notion that nothing matters when it comes to public opinion of this president — his actions and events can, in fact, affect his standing. And for that reason, his reelection chances could now be in real danger.
[Related: Is Public Opinion Turning Against President Trump?]
We don’t know if Trump’s approval will fall below 40 percent this time around, but it will matter whether Trump’s approval is closer to 40 percent or 45 percent in November. Take the 2018 midterm elections. Then, Trump’s approval rating was just shy 42 percent in our tracker. That was significant, considering that 90 percent of the voters who disapproved of the president backed Democrats in their House vote, according to the exit polls.
And already, with Trump’s approval rating slipping below 42 percent once again, we’re seeing poor numbers for him in head-to-head polls against the Democrats’ presumptive nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden. Throughout April and May, Biden led Trump by about 4 to 6 points in RealClearPolitics’ average of national polls, but since the start of the protests around Floyd’s death, Biden’s lead has increased to 8 points.
Other data points in recent national polls hint at how Trump’s poor approval rating could hurt him in November, too. First, CNN/SSRS’s early June survey found Biden winning 92 percent of voters who disapproved of Trump, which is roughly in line with what the 2018 exit polls found. Similarly, Emerson College found Biden winning 91 percent of those who disapproved of Trump in its early June poll. What these two polls suggest is that even if Trump gets overwhelming support from those who do approve of him — in particular Republicans — an approval rating of 40 percent probably won’t be enough to win, especially if Biden is winning 90 percent of the voters who disapprove of Trump, as this is a much larger group.
[Related: How Popular Is President Donald Trump?]
This is doubly true if independent voters are also turned off by Trump, as they backed him by 4 points in 2016, according to the exit polls. And there’s reason to believe Trump might already be in trouble with independents. That CNN poll found, for instance, Trump trailing by 11 points with this group, while a Monmouth University poll conducted in late May and early June had Trump down by 16 points. Other surveys have found Trump in slightly better shape with independents, although still trailing Biden. For instance, an early June poll from NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist had him behind by 4 points, and the latest survey from The Economist/YouGov had him down by 3 points. The margins here matter, but at this stage, the polls generally agree that Trump’s losing among independents, which isn’t a good sign for his reelection chances.
Of course, with roughly five months to go until Election Day, Trump has time for his approval rating to bounce back, just as it has previously. Trump’s actions, as we’ve seen, can negatively affect his ratings, but it’s also within his power to boost them. But the more Trump’s approval rating hangs out around the 40 percent mark, the harder it is to imagine him attracting enough support to win reelection — especially given his inability to broaden his appeal. And as we’ve said before, Trump’s base won’t be enough.


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-11--National Media Coverage Of Black Lives Matter Had Fallen During The Trump Era — Until Now

Over the past few weeks , the national media ’ s attention has shifted to the protests against police brutality that have arisen across the country following the death of George Floyd , a black man killed by a police officer in Minneapolis .
That brutality and those protests , however , are nothing new — on-duty police officers have fatally shot about 1,000 Americans every year between 2015 and 2019 , and black people are consistently most at risk of being killed by police .
This year has been no different so far .
But the media hasn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ police brutality or misconduct over the last few years .
These protests , often grouped under the umbrella of the Black Lives Matter movement , featured prominently in national media during and after the 2014 demonstrations in Ferguson , Missouri .
In recent years , though , they have received much less media attention .
According to our analysis of closed captioning data of cable news broadcasts from the TV News Archive as well as headlines of online news articles in Media Cloud ’ s database , the phrase “ Black Lives Matter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on both mediums between 2017 and 2019 as it did from 2014 to 2016 .
We also ran queries for cable news snippets and online news headlines containing the words “ police , ” “ black ” and either “ violence , ” “ brutality , ” “ kill , ” or “ killed ” to get a sense of whether these patterns were also present in coverage of the underlying issues the Black Lives Matter movement seeks to address .
The query returned similar results , with a large spike in July @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and killed five police officers during a peaceful demonstration in Dallas — followed by significantly fewer results until Floyd ’ s death .
( We haven ’ t run a full analysis of FiveThirtyEight ’ s coverage , but we certainly covered the recent protests far more than past Black Lives Matter protests during the Trump administration . )
Danielle Kilgo , a professor of journalism , diversity and equality at the University of Minnesota , Twin Cities , pointed to two stories involving black men shot and killed by police between 2017 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nearly as much national press : The protests in St. Louis after a white police officer , Jason Stockley , was acquitted of first-degree murder for a 2011 shooting in which he killed 24-year-old Anthony Lamar Smith , and the protests in Sacramento , California , after the death of Stephon Clark , a 22-year-old killed by police who said they believed he had a gun ( the only item later found near Clark was his cellphone ) .
The protests in St. Louis , for example , shared many of the same @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks : there was a video of the incident , the protests lasted for days and turned violent at times , and dozens of people were arrested , including a journalist .
“ They were huge protests and they were prolonged protests , but they didn ’ t receive the coverage they needed to expand beyond that , ” Kilgo said .
She hypothesized that it was in part because the protests came on the heels of the Unite the Right rally that brought white supremacists to Charlottesville , Virginia .
The rally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may have shifted the conversation about racism away from Black Lives Matter and towards a discussion about white supremacy , she said .
Kilgo also noted that the story of players kneeling during the national anthem at football games was getting a lot of coverage in the national press around the time of the St. Louis protests , especially after the president weighed in .
“ The whole news broadcast couldn ’ t be about racism , ” she said , pointing to other stories related to racism , like racist rhetoric coming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drawn the media ’ s attention away from Black Lives Matter .
“ I think they were just blinded by other things .
There ’ s lots of shiny objects floating around in our political landscape right now.
” It ’ s not only important for protest movements to receive media coverage — the focus of the coverage also makes a difference .
In order to successfully achieve policy aims , protest movements must walk a fine line .
They need to be disruptive enough to capture and hold national attention , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ politicians into action .
Kilgo ’ s research suggests that this task may be a particularly tough one for the Black Lives Matter movement because protests about anti-black racism tend to get less legitimizing news coverage .
In a review of 777 news articles from 20 different newsrooms in Texas , Kilgo found that press reports were more likely to emphasize the disruption caused by protests and less likely to emphasize legitimate political grievances , compared to reports of protests about other issues like health and immigration .
And the coverage of protests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to rely on official sources rather than protestors ’ perspectives .
I spoke with Drexton Clemons , a 26-year-old stand-up comic in New York City who has been out protesting several times since George Floyd ’ s death , about what it has been like to watch the coverage and observe the media at the protests .
He told me that while media was present throughout the entirety of one protest he attended , he felt the media presence was heavier later on in the day , “ as if to capture some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doing onto the protesters , as well as the rioting or looting.
” “ They ’ re missing hours and hours and hours of people peacefully protesting , ” he said , “ but it almost seems as if they don ’ t care about that particular narrative.
” Kilgo told me media coverage often fails to explore the nuances in interactions between the police and protesters .
“ This idea of police militarization and police and their actions at protests was really reduced to the idea of ‘ clashes ’ or the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” she said of coverage of previous protests .
This isn ’ t the first time journalists have been arrested at Black Lives Matter protests , but now that the police have attacked and arrested multiple journalists , “ there is a discussion of protection of the press , a First Amendment right , ” something she says was mostly absent from previous coverage .
But she also noted that the same amendment that protects the free press also protects the protesters ’ rights to peaceably assemble .
So far , it seems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ George Floyd ’ s death have , despite the hurdles Kilgo ’ s study highlighted , managed to retain public support while capturing the media ’ s attention .
A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted from May 28 to June 2 found that when asked to choose , 59 percent of Americans were more concerned about “ the actions of police and the death of an African American man , ” while only 27 percent reported being more concerned that the protests had turned violent .
But the road to permanent change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Omar Wasow , suggests that areas that saw violent protests in the 1960s saw an increase in President Richard Nixon ’ s vote share in the 1968 election .
( Nixon ran on a “ law and order ” platform and waged a “ war on drugs ” that exacerbated many of the racial inequalities in the criminal justice system that the protesters are working to undo . )
It is unclear to what extent the lessons from the 1960s will apply today , but having public support undoubtedly will help activists pressure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of that public support may be contingent on how the story of the movement is covered by mainstream press .
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast : Americans Dislike How Trump Is Handling The Crises

Over the past few weeks, the national media’s attention has shifted to the protests against police brutality that have arisen across the country following the death of George Floyd, a black man killed by a police officer in Minneapolis. That brutality and those protests, however, are nothing new — on-duty police officers have fatally shot about 1,000 Americans every year between 2015 and 2019, and black people are consistently most at risk of being killed by police. This year has been no different so far.
But the media hasn’t paid much attention to protests against police brutality or misconduct over the last few years. These protests, often grouped under the umbrella of the Black Lives Matter movement, featured prominently in national media during and after the 2014 demonstrations in Ferguson, Missouri. In recent years, though, they have received much less media attention.
According to our analysis of closed captioning data of cable news broadcasts from the TV News Archive as well as headlines of online news articles in Media Cloud’s database, the phrase “Black Lives Matter” appeared less than half as frequently on both mediums between 2017 and 2019 as it did from 2014 to 2016.
We also ran queries for cable news snippets and online news headlines containing the words “police,” “black” and either “violence,” “brutality,” “kill,” or “killed” to get a sense of whether these patterns were also present in coverage of the underlying issues the Black Lives Matter movement seeks to address. The query returned similar results, with a large spike in July 2016 — after a black gunman shot and killed five police officers during a peaceful demonstration in Dallas — followed by significantly fewer results until Floyd’s death. (We haven’t run a full analysis of FiveThirtyEight’s coverage, but we certainly covered the recent protests far more than past Black Lives Matter protests during the Trump administration.)
Danielle Kilgo, a professor of journalism, diversity and equality at the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, pointed to two stories involving black men shot and killed by police between 2017 and 2019 that didn’t get nearly as much national press: The protests in St. Louis after a white police officer, Jason Stockley, was acquitted of first-degree murder for a 2011 shooting in which he killed 24-year-old Anthony Lamar Smith, and the protests in Sacramento, California, after the death of Stephon Clark, a 22-year-old killed by police who said they believed he had a gun (the only item later found near Clark was his cellphone).
The protests in St. Louis, for example, shared many of the same elements as those in the past few weeks: there was a video of the incident, the protests lasted for days and turned violent at times, and dozens of people were arrested, including a journalist. “They were huge protests and they were prolonged protests, but they didn’t receive the coverage they needed to expand beyond that,” Kilgo said. She hypothesized that it was in part because the protests came on the heels of the Unite the Right rally that brought white supremacists to Charlottesville, Virginia. The rally drew a lot of media attention and may have shifted the conversation about racism away from Black Lives Matter and towards a discussion about white supremacy, she said. Kilgo also noted that the story of players kneeling during the national anthem at football games was getting a lot of coverage in the national press around the time of the St. Louis protests, especially after the president weighed in.
“The whole news broadcast couldn’t be about racism,” she said, pointing to other stories related to racism, like racist rhetoric coming from the president, that could have drawn the media’s attention away from Black Lives Matter. “I think they were just blinded by other things. There’s lots of shiny objects floating around in our political landscape right now.”
It’s not only important for protest movements to receive media coverage — the focus of the coverage also makes a difference. In order to successfully achieve policy aims, protest movements must walk a fine line. They need to be disruptive enough to capture and hold national attention, but also retain enough public support to pressure politicians into action.
Kilgo’s research suggests that this task may be a particularly tough one for the Black Lives Matter movement because protests about anti-black racism tend to get less legitimizing news coverage. In a review of 777 news articles from 20 different newsrooms in Texas, Kilgo found that press reports were more likely to emphasize the disruption caused by protests and less likely to emphasize legitimate political grievances, compared to reports of protests about other issues like health and immigration. And the coverage of protests against anti-black racism was also more likely to rely on official sources rather than protestors’ perspectives.
I spoke with Drexton Clemons, a 26-year-old stand-up comic in New York City who has been out protesting several times since George Floyd’s death, about what it has been like to watch the coverage and observe the media at the protests. He told me that while media was present throughout the entirety of one protest he attended, he felt the media presence was heavier later on in the day, “as if to capture some of the brutality that the police are doing onto the protesters, as well as the rioting or looting.”
“They’re missing hours and hours and hours of people peacefully protesting,” he said, “but it almost seems as if they don’t care about that particular narrative.”
Kilgo told me media coverage often fails to explore the nuances in interactions between the police and protesters. “This idea of police militarization and police and their actions at protests was really reduced to the idea of ‘clashes’ or the idea that they were arresting someone,” she said of coverage of previous protests. This isn’t the first time journalists have been arrested at Black Lives Matter protests, but now that the police have attacked and arrested multiple journalists, “there is a discussion of protection of the press, a First Amendment right,” something she says was mostly absent from previous coverage. But she also noted that the same amendment that protects the free press also protects the protesters’ rights to peaceably assemble.
So far, it seems that the protests in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death have, despite the hurdles Kilgo’s study highlighted, managed to retain public support while capturing the media’s attention. A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted from May 28 to June 2 found that when asked to choose, 59 percent of Americans were more concerned about “the actions of police and the death of an African American man,” while only 27 percent reported being more concerned that the protests had turned violent.
But the road to permanent change is long. A recent study from Omar Wasow, suggests that areas that saw violent protests in the 1960s saw an increase in President Richard Nixon’s vote share in the 1968 election. (Nixon ran on a “law and order” platform and waged a “war on drugs” that exacerbated many of the racial inequalities in the criminal justice system that the protesters are working to undo.) It is unclear to what extent the lessons from the 1960s will apply today, but having public support undoubtedly will help activists pressure politicians to implement reforms. And much of that public support may be contingent on how the story of the movement is covered by mainstream press.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Americans Dislike How Trump Is Handling The Crises


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-12--The Latest Swing State Polls Look Good For Biden

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
Hard as it may be to believe , Election Day is now less than five months away .
And at this point , former Vice President Joe Biden has a clear lead over President Trump in the national polls .
But recent state-level surveys also give Biden an edge over Trump in a number of key swing states .
And of course , how Trump and Biden do at the state level matters the most , as that ’ s how the outcome in the Electoral College will be decided .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would be helpful to update where things stand in state-level polls of the presidential contest , like we did at the beginning of May .
To do this , we gathered all the state polls in FiveThirtyEight ’ s polling database conducted since May 1 and then averaged them .
And right now , the state polls largely agree with what the national surveys show : Biden holds the lead .
In fact , he has about a 2-to-8-point lead in some of the most important states in the Electoral College .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which we ’ ll get to in a moment .
( Additionally , what ’ s captured here might not reflect how things have changed after an unexpectedly positive job report , or how public opinion might have shifted in response to the national protests that followed George Floyd ’ s death . )
But first , let ’ s start with what the polls say in battleground states where we have at least three polls in the past six weeks .
Together , they mostly present good news for Biden , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is Biden ’ s sizable lead in Michigan and Wisconsin .
Trump carried Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 , albeit by less than 1 point , but Biden ’ s comfortable margin in these recent surveys could spell trouble for Trump .
However , both states ’ polls offered a range of snapshots — in Michigan , Biden led by anywhere from 2 to 15 points , and in Wisconsin , the race ranged from a tie to Biden +9 .
In Michigan , the most notable result comes from long-time Michigan pollster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 12 points in a poll conducted between late May and early June , 53 percent to 41 percent .
For context , in 2016 the pollster never found Hillary Clinton with more than 47 percent in a single general election poll .
However , in Wisconsin , Biden ’ s lead might not be that secure .
The Marquette Law School Poll — often seen as the gold standard in the Badger State — had Biden up only 3 points in early May , 46 percent to 43 percent .
Biden and Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another pivotal state in 2016 , which might seem at odds with the data from Michigan and Wisconsin .
But unlike those states , Pennsylvania didn ’ t have any surveys from highly rated pollsters , and what they found was a bit noisy — two put Trump up by 4 to 5 points , while another put Biden ahead by 9 points .
We wouldn ’ t read too much into this yet without higher quality polling , but the inconsistent results here could be evidence that Pennsylvania will remain competitive .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sun Belt states — Arizona , Georgia and Texas — they all seemed more or less in line with what you would expect , once you account for Biden ’ s lead in the national polls and how these states voted in 2016 .
But they do signal potential trouble for Trump .
For instance , the fact that Trump carried Arizona by 3.5 points in 2016 seems to have been erased by Biden ’ s polling lead .
On average , Biden led by 3 points , including a high-quality early June @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up 4 points .
In Georgia and Texas , on the other hand , Trump was still in the lead , by 1 and 2 points , respectively .
Yet this is not as cushy of a margin as one would expect for Trump , considering he carried Georgia by 5 points and Texas by 9 points in 2016 .
If this trio of states are all in play — and Arizona is possibly even leaning Democratic — that would give Biden many additional paths to 270 electoral votes .
Polls in Florida @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tilted slightly toward Biden , though we didn ’ t have much in the way of high-quality polls here .
These surveys all gave Biden a narrow lead ranging from 1 to 5 points .
Meanwhile , North Carolina ’ s eight polls suggest a competitive race in the state — collectively , the results ranged from Trump by 3 points to Biden by 4 points , averaging out to about even .
There are two big takeaways here .
One , Biden is in an enviable position in many of these battleground @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — which is the caveat we mentioned earlier — is that all of these battleground states save Michigan are more Republican-leaning than the national average .
In other words , most of the states that will decide the presidential election are to the right of the country as a whole , and that speaks to Trump ’ s advantage in the Electoral College .
Should Biden continue to hold a sizable lead , the chances of an Electoral College-popular vote split will probably be low .
But if the polls get closer , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tipping point state is almost certainly among these eight states .
But as it stands now , if Trump carries Arizona along with every state that ’ s more Republican-leaning in those recent polls , he would almost certainly win the presidency .
There are 18 other states where we have one or two polls , including surveys in potential battleground states that also suggest that Biden has an overall edge .
Here are the states where we have at least one poll conducted since May 1 , and as you can see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ neck and neck with Trump in Iowa and Ohio , and in a number of deep red states , Trump is actually underperforming his 2016 marks .
Trump won Ohio and Iowa by 8 and 9 points , respectively , in 2016 , but recent surveys from both states show a very close race , indicative of an overall environment in which Biden is outperforming Clinton .
Ohio ’ s polls included a high-quality early June survey from Fox News that gave Biden a 2-point lead , but it ’ s worth noting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conducted by Democratic pollsters .
Limited polling from Colorado and Virginia suggests that those traditional battlegrounds may be moving out of range for Trump — he was always likely to be an underdog in them , but Biden held double-digit leads in all three surveys from those states .
A handful of surveys from very red states found Trump well ahead , but not leading by margins in line with his 2016 performance .
For instance , two Kentucky polls averaged out to a Trump lead of about 17 points , but the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points in 2016 .
This might be additional evidence that Trump is struggling nearly everywhere compared to his 2016 showing .
Lastly , a Utah poll from Y2 Analytics got some attention because it found Trump up just 3 points .
Could traditionally ruby red Utah be competitive in 2020 ?
We wouldn ’ t bet on it — Biden was at 41 percent in this survey , but Barack Obama ’ s 34 percent in 2008 is still the highest share a Democrat has won there since 1972 , so this poll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the presumptive Democratic nominee .
That said , right now the overall state-level polling picture does look really promising for Biden .
• Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is trailing in her reelection campaign in Iowa , according to a new Daily Kos/Civiqs poll .
The survey found her Democratic opponent , Theresa Greenfield , at 48 percent and Ernst at 45 percent .
• About 38 percent of Americans said they approved of how the Supreme Court is doing its job , compared with 43 percent who disapproved , according to a CBS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20 percent of Americans said they didn ’ t know or declined to answer .
There was a big partisan split on this question , though — 61 percent of Republicans said they approved , compared with just 19 percent of Democrats .
• 66 percent of Americans said they approved of social media companies , like Facebook and Twitter , labeling posts that are possibly false or misleading , according to a new Monmouth University poll .
Just 28 percent of Americans said they disapproved .
However , there was less support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent did support this , but 45 percent did not ) .
• 60 percent of people who said they intended to vote for Biden in November said their support for Biden is more “ a vote against Donald Trump ” than “ a vote for Joe Biden , ” according to a new CNN/SSRS poll , while just 37 percent of Biden backers said that their support for Biden was more a vote for him .
Conversely , 70 percent of Trump backers said that their support of Trump was more a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while just 27 percent described it as more a vote against Biden than a vote for Trump .
• Just 2 percent of Americans said that they attended protests around the country following Floyd ’ s death , according to a new Axios/Ipsos poll , while 11 percent of Americans said that someone they ’ re close with attended the protests .
Respondents under the age of 30 ( 20 percent ) , Democrats ( 16 percent ) , those with at least a bachelor ’ s degree ( 16 percent ) and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 14 percent ) were particularly likely to say that someone close to them had attended the protests .
• According to a new Data for Progress poll , a majority of Americans think police officers can generally be trusted .
In that poll , 70 percent said their views more closely align with the statement “ police officers can generally be trusted , ” compared to 30 percent who said their views more closely match the statement that “ police officers can generally not be trusted.
” There was , however , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Among people ages 18 to 29 , 59 percent said that police officers can ’ t be trusted , compared to 41 percent who said they generally can be trusted .
At the same time , a majority of Americans 30 and older said they can be trusted , including about 4 in 5 of those 50 or older .
• When asked whether their view is closer to the statement , “ police in America have made the changes needed to treat blacks equally to whites , ” or “ police @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to treat blacks equally to whites , ” 81 percent of Americans said that the police need to continue making changes , according to a Washington Post/Schar School poll .
Only 13 percent said that the police have made the necessary changes .
• A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that asked Americans what they thought of Biden and Trump on 13 different issues found that Biden got higher marks on 10 of them .
For example , 51 percent of Americans thought Biden would be better than Trump at “ bringing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 26 percent thought Trump would be better .
49 percent of Americans thought Biden would be better at “ dealing with health care , ” compared to 34 percent who said Trump .
The three issues Trump got higher marks than Biden were : “ dealing with China , ” “ dealing with the economy ” and “ cutting the unemployment rate.
” According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 40.9 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president , while 54.8 percent disapprove ( a net @ @ @ @ @ @ @ At this time last week , 41.9 percent approved and 53.1 percent disapproved ( a net approval rating of -11.2 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 43.5 percent and a disapproval rating of 51.5 percent , for a net approval rating of -8.0 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 7.9 percentage points ( 48.5 percent to 40.6 percent ) .
A week ago , Democrats led Republicans by 7.8 points ( 48.7 percent to 40.9 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month , voters preferred Democrats by 7.9 points ( 48.5 percent to 40.6 percent ) .

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
Hard as it may be to believe, Election Day is now less than five months away. And at this point, former Vice President Joe Biden has a clear lead over President Trump in the national polls. But recent state-level surveys also give Biden an edge over Trump in a number of key swing states. And of course, how Trump and Biden do at the state level matters the most, as that’s how the outcome in the Electoral College will be decided.
With that in mind, we thought it would be helpful to update where things stand in state-level polls of the presidential contest, like we did at the beginning of May. To do this, we gathered all the state polls in FiveThirtyEight’s polling database conducted since May 1 and then averaged them. And right now, the state polls largely agree with what the national surveys show: Biden holds the lead. In fact, he has about a 2-to-8-point lead in some of the most important states in the Electoral College. There is one notable caveat, though, which we’ll get to in a moment. (Additionally, what’s captured here might not reflect how things have changed after an unexpectedly positive job report, or how public opinion might have shifted in response to the national protests that followed George Floyd’s death.)
But first, let’s start with what the polls say in battleground states where we have at least three polls in the past six weeks. Together, they mostly present good news for Biden, and perhaps the most notable takeaway here is Biden’s sizable lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Biden leads in some key battleground states Average margin in states where at least three polls were conducted since May 1 State Number of polls Biden Trump Average Margin Texas 3 46.4% 47.9% R+1.5 Georgia 4 45.3 46.3 R+1.0 Pennsylvania 3 46.5 46.4 D+0.1 North Carolina 8 45.6 45.1 D+0.5 Florida 6 47.5 45.0 D+2.5 Arizona 5 46.5 43.2 D+3.3 Wisconsin 5 47.8 41.5 D+6.2 Michigan 8 49.8 42.2 D+7.6 Includes polls conducted from May 1 to June 11. Polls that released results among multiple populations were included only once, counting the narrowest sample — registered voters over adults, and likely voters over registered voters. Source: Polls
Trump carried Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016, albeit by less than 1 point, but Biden’s comfortable margin in these recent surveys could spell trouble for Trump. However, both states’ polls offered a range of snapshots — in Michigan, Biden led by anywhere from 2 to 15 points, and in Wisconsin, the race ranged from a tie to Biden +9.
In Michigan, the most notable result comes from long-time Michigan pollster EPIC/MRA, which found Biden up by 12 points in a poll conducted between late May and early June, 53 percent to 41 percent. For context, in 2016 the pollster never found Hillary Clinton with more than 47 percent in a single general election poll. However, in Wisconsin, Biden’s lead might not be that secure. The Marquette Law School Poll — often seen as the gold standard in the Badger State — had Biden up only 3 points in early May, 46 percent to 43 percent. Biden and Trump also ran about even in Pennsylvania, another pivotal state in 2016, which might seem at odds with the data from Michigan and Wisconsin. But unlike those states, Pennsylvania didn’t have any surveys from highly rated pollsters, and what they found was a bit noisy — two put Trump up by 4 to 5 points, while another put Biden ahead by 9 points. We wouldn’t read too much into this yet without higher quality polling, but the inconsistent results here could be evidence that Pennsylvania will remain competitive.
As for the polling picture in the Sun Belt states — Arizona, Georgia and Texas — they all seemed more or less in line with what you would expect, once you account for Biden’s lead in the national polls and how these states voted in 2016. But they do signal potential trouble for Trump. For instance, the fact that Trump carried Arizona by 3.5 points in 2016 seems to have been erased by Biden’s polling lead. On average, Biden led by 3 points, including a high-quality early June survey from Fox News that showed him up 4 points. In Georgia and Texas, on the other hand, Trump was still in the lead, by 1 and 2 points, respectively. Yet this is not as cushy of a margin as one would expect for Trump, considering he carried Georgia by 5 points and Texas by 9 points in 2016. If this trio of states are all in play — and Arizona is possibly even leaning Democratic — that would give Biden many additional paths to 270 electoral votes.
Polls in Florida, the über swing state, also tilted slightly toward Biden, though we didn’t have much in the way of high-quality polls here. These surveys all gave Biden a narrow lead ranging from 1 to 5 points. Meanwhile, North Carolina’s eight polls suggest a competitive race in the state — collectively, the results ranged from Trump by 3 points to Biden by 4 points, averaging out to about even.
There are two big takeaways here. One, Biden is in an enviable position in many of these battleground states. However, the second takeaway — which is the caveat we mentioned earlier — is that all of these battleground states save Michigan are more Republican-leaning than the national average. In other words, most of the states that will decide the presidential election are to the right of the country as a whole, and that speaks to Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College. Should Biden continue to hold a sizable lead, the chances of an Electoral College-popular vote split will probably be low. But if the polls get closer, the odds will increase because the eventual tipping point state is almost certainly among these eight states. But as it stands now, if Trump carries Arizona along with every state that’s more Republican-leaning in those recent polls, he would almost certainly win the presidency.
There are 18 other states where we have one or two polls, including surveys in potential battleground states that also suggest that Biden has an overall edge. Here are the states where we have at least one poll conducted since May 1, and as you can see, Biden is, somewhat surprisingly, neck and neck with Trump in Iowa and Ohio, and in a number of deep red states, Trump is actually underperforming his 2016 marks.
Early polls continue to give Biden an edge over Trump Average margin in states where at least one poll was conducted since May 1 State Number of polls Biden Trump Average Margin Oklahoma 1 36.0% 55.0% R+19.0 Kentucky 2 37.5 54.0 R+16.5 Kansas 1 40.0 52.0 R+12.0 Indiana 1 39.0 49.0 R+10.0 South Carolina 1 42.0 52.0 R+10.0 Tennessee 1 42.0 51.0 R+9.0 Missouri 1 44.0 48.0 R+4.0 Utah 1 41.0 44.0 R+3.0 Texas 3 46.4 47.9 R+1.5 Georgia 4 45.3 46.3 R+1.0 Iowa 2 46.5 47.0 R+0.5 Ohio 2 46.8 47.2 R+0.4 Pennsylvania 3 46.5 46.4 D+0.1 North Carolina 8 45.6 45.1 D+0.5 Florida 6 47.5 45.0 D+2.5 Arizona 5 46.5 43.2 D+3.3 Minnesota 1 49.0 44.0 D+5.0 Wisconsin 5 47.8 41.5 D+6.2 Michigan 8 49.8 42.2 D+7.6 Virginia 1 51.0 39.0 D+12.0 Colorado 2 54.0 38.0 D+16.0 Maryland 1 59.1 35.3 D+23.8 Washington 2 58.0 34.0 D+24.0 New York 1 57.0 32.0 D+25.0 California 3 60.1 32.6 D+27.5 Massachusetts 1 66.9 33.1 D+33.8 Includes polls conducted from May 1 to June 11. Polls that released results among multiple populations were included only once, counting the narrowest sample — registered voters over adults, and likely voters over registered voters. Source: Polls
Trump won Ohio and Iowa by 8 and 9 points, respectively, in 2016, but recent surveys from both states show a very close race, indicative of an overall environment in which Biden is outperforming Clinton. Ohio’s polls included a high-quality early June survey from Fox News that gave Biden a 2-point lead, but it’s worth noting that Iowa’s surveys were both conducted by Democratic pollsters. Limited polling from Colorado and Virginia suggests that those traditional battlegrounds may be moving out of range for Trump — he was always likely to be an underdog in them, but Biden held double-digit leads in all three surveys from those states.
A handful of surveys from very red states found Trump well ahead, but not leading by margins in line with his 2016 performance. For instance, two Kentucky polls averaged out to a Trump lead of about 17 points, but the president carried the Bluegrass State by 30 points in 2016. This might be additional evidence that Trump is struggling nearly everywhere compared to his 2016 showing.
Lastly, a Utah poll from Y2 Analytics got some attention because it found Trump up just 3 points. Could traditionally ruby red Utah be competitive in 2020? We wouldn’t bet on it — Biden was at 41 percent in this survey, but Barack Obama’s 34 percent in 2008 is still the highest share a Democrat has won there since 1972, so this poll may represent something of a ceiling for the presumptive Democratic nominee. That said, right now the overall state-level polling picture does look really promising for Biden.
Other polling bites
Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is trailing in her reelection campaign in Iowa, according to a new Daily Kos/Civiqs poll. The survey found her Democratic opponent, Theresa Greenfield, at 48 percent and Ernst at 45 percent.
About 38 percent of Americans said they approved of how the Supreme Court is doing its job, compared with 43 percent who disapproved, according to a CBS News poll released this week. Another 20 percent of Americans said they didn’t know or declined to answer. There was a big partisan split on this question, though — 61 percent of Republicans said they approved, compared with just 19 percent of Democrats.
66 percent of Americans said they approved of social media companies, like Facebook and Twitter, labeling posts that are possibly false or misleading, according to a new Monmouth University poll. Just 28 percent of Americans said they disapproved. However, there was less support for sites deleting such posts (50 percent did support this, but 45 percent did not).
60 percent of people who said they intended to vote for Biden in November said their support for Biden is more “a vote against Donald Trump” than “a vote for Joe Biden,” according to a new CNN/SSRS poll, while just 37 percent of Biden backers said that their support for Biden was more a vote for him. Conversely, 70 percent of Trump backers said that their support of Trump was more a vote for him than against Biden, while just 27 percent described it as more a vote against Biden than a vote for Trump.
Just 2 percent of Americans said that they attended protests around the country following Floyd’s death, according to a new Axios/Ipsos poll, while 11 percent of Americans said that someone they’re close with attended the protests. Respondents under the age of 30 (20 percent), Democrats (16 percent), those with at least a bachelor’s degree (16 percent) and people who live in urban areas (14 percent) were particularly likely to say that someone close to them had attended the protests.
According to a new Data for Progress poll, a majority of Americans think police officers can generally be trusted. In that poll, 70 percent said their views more closely align with the statement “police officers can generally be trusted,” compared to 30 percent who said their views more closely match the statement that “police officers can generally not be trusted.” There was, however, a fairly large age gap on this question. Among people ages 18 to 29, 59 percent said that police officers can’t be trusted, compared to 41 percent who said they generally can be trusted. At the same time, a majority of Americans 30 and older said they can be trusted, including about 4 in 5 of those 50 or older.
When asked whether their view is closer to the statement, “police in America have made the changes needed to treat blacks equally to whites,” or “police in America need to continue making changes to treat blacks equally to whites,” 81 percent of Americans said that the police need to continue making changes, according to a Washington Post/Schar School poll. Only 13 percent said that the police have made the necessary changes.
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that asked Americans what they thought of Biden and Trump on 13 different issues found that Biden got higher marks on 10 of them. For example, 51 percent of Americans thought Biden would be better than Trump at “bringing the country together,” while only 26 percent thought Trump would be better. 49 percent of Americans thought Biden would be better at “dealing with health care,” compared to 34 percent who said Trump. The three issues Trump got higher marks than Biden were: “dealing with China,” “dealing with the economy” and “cutting the unemployment rate.”
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 40.9 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 54.8 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -13.9 points). At this time last week, 41.9 percent approved and 53.1 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -11.2 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 43.5 percent and a disapproval rating of 51.5 percent, for a net approval rating of -8.0 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.9 percentage points (48.5 percent to 40.6 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7.8 points (48.7 percent to 40.9 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 7.9 points (48.5 percent to 40.6 percent).


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-12--How Cable News Is Talking About The Protests — And Why It Matters

FiveThirtyEight database journalist Dhrumil Mehta looks into how the national media has been covering the recent protests against police violence @ @ @ @ @ killing .
We also speak to Danielle Kilgo , a University of Minnesota professor who @ @ @ @ @ media , about how this coverage compares with that of similar protests in the past @ @ @ @ @ .

FiveThirtyEight database journalist Dhrumil Mehta looks into how the national media has been covering the recent protests against police violence following George Floyd’s killing. We also speak to Danielle Kilgo, a University of Minnesota professor who researches social movements and the media, about how this coverage compares with that of similar protests in the past — and why this matters.


fivethirtyeight--2020-06-12--Politics Podcast: The Protests Appear To Be Working

Nationwide protests against police violence have continued around the country for nearly three weeks .
Their size and scope evoke @ @ @ @ @ the 1960s .
But can we judge the efficacy of a protest movement by a @ @ @ @ @ ?
And do the current protests seem to be working ?
In this installment of @ @ @ @ @ New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder discuss these questions .
@ @ @ @ @ Mondays and Thursdays .
Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating @ @ @ @ @ Have a comment , question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” @ @ @ @ @ email , on Twitter or in the comments .

Nationwide protests against police violence have continued around the country for nearly three weeks. Their size and scope evoke the civil rights protests of the 1960s. But can we judge the efficacy of a protest movement by a measure other than its size? And do the current protests seem to be working? In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder discuss these questions.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.