fivethirtyeight--2020-04-29--It’s Time For Another 2020 Vice Presidential Draft

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight ’ s weekly politics chat .
The transcript below has been lightly edited .
sarahf ( Sarah Frostenson , politics editor ) : You may have thought that with former Vice President Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee our 2020 drafts were finally over .
Well , no such luck .
There ’ s still the question of whom Biden will pick as his vice president .
We know thanks to his announcement at an earlier presidential debate that he plans to pick a female running mate , but that ’ s it .
So we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of whom Biden should pick for his VP .
How it works is simple : Three rounds total , so between the three of us , nine potential 2020 Democratic veeps .
And the draft line up is … nrakich : Yeah — I think there are two equally strong contenders for the first overall pick .
But I will go for the more obvious one : Sen. Kamala Harris .
Harris obviously ran for president already , which means she ’ s been vetted .
She has also long been considered a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , she would make history as both the first African American and first Asian American vice president , and African American voters are probably a group that Biden should reach out to given that he won the nomination thanks largely to their support .
And this goes without saying , but Democrats will want to try to get African American turnout in the general election closer to where it was for former President Barack Obama than where it was for Hillary Clinton .
There will inevitably be some “ ooh , remember how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ primary debate ” chatter , but I think that moment is overblown .
Harris was doing what she had to do to win .
And both before and after that incident , Biden and Harris have reportedly gotten along quite well .
geoffrey.skelley : Some say the first rule of vice presidential selection is to “ do no harm , ” and Harris would probably fit that bill on a number of fronts .
She ’ s been in the spotlight and vetted as a former presidential candidate , as Nathaniel said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ meet the “ Ready on Day 1 ” test that I think is pretty key for Biden .
Additionally , California isn ’ t a swing state , but Harris ’ s Senate seat would likely remain in Democratic hands .
Democratic Gov .
Gavin Newsom would appoint her replacement and when her seat is up in 2022 , Democrats would be very likely to hold onto it .
nrakich : Yeah , I think the home-state effect of vice-presidential candidates is slim to none .
That ’ s going to inform a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In their veepstakes feature on Tuesday , Politico set up Biden ’ s VP decision as a choice between appealing to black voters and appealing to the progressive wing of the party .
So if he were to select Harris — whom I agree does seem like a very solid pick for him — I guess that only checks one of those boxes .
But arguably , it ’ s not really possible for Biden to check both boxes with one VP .
geoffrey.skelley : I think the Biden campaign would argue Harris @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a cosponsor on Sen. Bernie Sanders ’ s Medicare for All legislation , for instance .
sarahf : That ’ s true , but I still think about how she infamously raised her hand in one of the early debates to say she supported Medicare for All , only to walk that back later .
nrakich : Yeah , one downside to Harris is that the progressive wing of the party doesn ’ t really trust her .
( Think of the “ Kamala is a cop ” meme . )
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to appeal to both , and I think African Americans are the more important constituency for Biden .
sarahf : Well , and to the point you raised initially , Nathaniel , Biden won the nomination thanks in large part to black Democrats ’ support — think South Carolina in particular — so it ’ s hard to not think that is a major consideration for Biden when weighing options .
But OK , I ’ m up .
Ugh .
At least I don ’ t have to go last in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ m not totally sure I agree with my own pick , but if part of the optics around Biden ’ s VP pick requires appealing to black voters or progressive voters , I wonder if he can ’ t try and do both by picking Rep. Ayanna Pressley .
I know Sen. Elizabeth Warren would be a more natural , high-profile pick to represent the progressive wing of the party , especially considering she ran for president , and Pressley is only a one-term House representative , but I ’ d argue Pressley @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar , represents a new direction for the party , which I think is an important characteristic for Biden ’ s VP to have .
I suppose that Pressley ’ s lack of experience is what hurts her chances to be Biden ’ s running mate the most .
Massachusetts isn ’ t exactly a swing state either .
nrakich : Bold pick !
Although I have learned the hard way not to bet against Sarah in these drafts… I think Pressley is an interesting choice , but ultimately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dooms her .
Biden , at 77 , is the oldest major-party presidential nominee ever .
That means the top consideration for the Biden campaign should be picking someone who will be ready to become president on day one .
geoffrey.skelley : Yeah , Pressley is fascinating , and it ’ s no coincidence that her name popped up in discussions about what might happen to Warren ’ s Senate seat if Warren had won the nomination ( or maybe the vice presidency , still ) .
But I agree with Nathaniel that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House member .
She ’ s a rising star , but maybe the 2020 election is just too near .
sarahf : The lack of experience definitely cuts against Pressley .
But if Biden ’ s top VP considerations are appealing to black and progressive voters , I think it ’ s impressive she can check both boxes .
I also thought she was a pretty effective endorser of Warren in the primary , but yeah , I admit that I ’ m not convinced this will actually happen .
geoffrey.skelley : Alright @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a bit predictable , but she would obviously fit in nicely with Biden ’ s political outlook : Sen. Amy Klobuchar .
Maybe my alternative first choice will still be on the board after all… geoffrey.skelley : She ran for president and has a long history of doing well in a purple state .
Plus , she endorsed Biden right after dropping out of the Democratic presidential primary , so that may have also nicely positioned her for consideration .
And again , if the idea is to do no harm , she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But whereas I can see some progressives coming around to Harris , it ’ s harder to see that happening with Klobuchar .
Nevertheless , I think that after Harris , she ’ s probably the second-most-likely senator to get picked .
sarahf : That ’ s true , Geoffrey , I don ’ t see progressives warming up to Klobuchar like they might with Harris .
In some ways , picking Klobuchar would be Biden doubling down on his base — i.e.
, appealing to more moderate voters , right ?
Why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nathaniel ?
nrakich : I just don ’ t see what Klobuchar adds .
She is incredibly redundant with Biden in terms of ideology and appeal to swing voters .
Biden should try to pick someone who appeals to a different constituency .
geoffrey.skelley : There ’ s a chance Biden will view that redundancy as a good thing , though .
nrakich : I ’ m also not sure that Klobuchar wouldn ’ t do any harm … While I could see the left grumbling about , but ultimately accepting , Harris @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more actively opposed to Klobuchar , who was always toward the center of the Democratic presidential field .
geoffrey.skelley : That ’ s fair , but at the same time , I suspect Klobuchar wouldn ’ t turn off some of the voters in the middle the way Harris might .
nrakich : Also , it ’ s not necessarily a dealbreaker in the same way it would be for some other potential VP picks ( cough Tammy Baldwin cough ) , but if Klobuchar resigns from the Senate , her seat would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2022 , two years ahead of schedule , putting a Senate seat unnecessarily in danger .
geoffrey.skelley : But that ’ s a concern with almost every senator outside of Harris !
Democrats have a fairly deep bench in Minnesota , too , so that might not be that risky of a move .
nrakich : Hm , I disagree there .
Other senators are on different schedules or hail from bluer states than Minnesota .
geoffrey.skelley : Out of the people likely to get picked , though ?
geoffrey.skelley : Lol , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up half the chat .
nrakich : Was that not the plan ?
?
In all seriousness , though , it ’ s a very important factor in the veepstakes discussion .
A President Biden would need every Democratic vote in the Senate he can muster to pass his agenda .
sarahf : That ’ s a good point , but OK — you ’ re up again , Geoffrey .
geoffrey.skelley : My next pick is Sen. Tammy Duckworth .
The Illinois senator flies a little under the radar , but she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an Asian American veteran who lost both her legs as a helicopter pilot fighting in Iraq .
She ’ s also from a blue state , so her seat would be more likely to remain in Democratic hands ( it ’ s up in 2022 ) .
However , as 2010 showed , weird things can happen — the GOP captured this very same seat that year , formerly held by Obama , so it ’ s worth noting that Illinois isn ’ t California .
nrakich : Ah , dammit .
Duckworth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a great pick , for all the reasons Geoffrey says .
geoffrey.skelley : She also gave birth while in office , the first senator to do so !
There ’ s just a lot to her story that I could see winning the Biden campaign over .
nrakich : Yeah , she has a great story to tell , on many different dimensions .
And her low national name recognition right now could be seen as a reason not to pick her , but it ’ s also an opportunity .
sarahf @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s not like Sen. Tim Kaine had a huge national profile prior to when Clinton picked him in 2016. nrakich : Yeah , I think people generally overrate people who ran for president and lost when thinking about veep contenders .
geoffrey.skelley : Yeah , honestly the main reason I picked Klobuchar ahead of Duckworth was Klobuchar ran for president and has more of a national profile .
But Duckworth might be the better pick — it ’ s less clear that she would offend any part of the Democratic coalition .
sarahf @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It undercuts my first pick ( Pressley ) , but I also think Warren would be interesting .
Clearly , I have a Massachusetts bias .
nrakich : Massachusetts bias is nothing to be ashamed of , Sarah .
sarahf : But assuming national profile matters somewhat in who a candidate picks for VP ( to be clear , the political science on this isn ’ t really clear , but it does seem to matter to party elites ) , Warren has got that covered .
And apparently , when Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he wanted Warren as his running mate !
That ’ s interesting to me , considering the visible bad blood between the two during the debates ( thinking about their heated exchange over who deserves credit for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ) .
What Warren would bring to the ticket is an ideological balance that I think few other candidates could give Biden , but I could also see her being a potential general election risk for Biden .
I ’ m also not sure if the other constituency she appeals to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needs the most help ?
geoffrey.skelley : Warren would certainly meet the Ready on Day 1 test , plus she ’ d unify the party pretty well .
I do wonder if she ’ s a case where the Biden campaign might be concerned that the VP pick outshines the presidential nominee .
That ’ s on top of the concerns that her progressive views might alienate some in the middle .
nrakich : Yeah , Warren was also pretty high on my board .
If you decide your goal is to appeal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better choice ( other than , I guess , Sen. Bernie Sanders , although that isn ’ t going to happen for many reasons ) .
She has the experience to be president and demonstrated that she has a loyal following with her strong presidential campaign .
geoffrey.skelley : That ’ s true , but there is still the always-thorny electability question about whether Warren ’ s progressive positions would harm Biden ’ s attempts to have a broader appeal .
nrakich : Yeah , I wonder how that would play , Geoffrey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s debatable whether a presidential nominee on the ideological extremes still puts the ticket at a disadvantage ; would a vice-presidential nominee on the extremes do the same thing ?
I ’ m not so sure .
geoffrey.skelley : I will say that a Warren pick would be interesting in that , at 71 years old by Election Day , Warren would be less likely to end up running for president should Biden win , so the VP pick wouldn ’ t necessarily be a launch pad for the next presidential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t know , she could probably run in 2024 if she wanted .
( I think there ’ s a strong possibility that Biden would not run for a second term . )
geoffrey.skelley : That ’ s true , but with most of these other names , the VP would very likely run in the future if the ticket won — or even if it didn ’ t .
But we ’ re probably getting a little ahead of ourselves here .
sarahf : OK , Nathaniel , you ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ picks !
nrakich : OK , next on my list is Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada .
She has risen quickly in the Senate ranks ; though she was just elected in 2016 , she has already become chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee .
( I guess you could ding her for being inexperienced , but she was also state attorney general for two terms before that — in other words , she ’ s as experienced as Harris . )
And , as a Latina , she would bring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ although I don ’ t want to imply that means she will automatically boost the ticket with Latino voters .
Latinos are not a uniform group , and picking a Mexican American woman from the West wouldn ’ t necessarily resonate with , say , Cuban American voters in Florida .
geoffrey.skelley : Definitely a good pick .
She ’ s under the radar , sort of like Duckworth , but has a very strong resume and a history-making backstory .
But with the Senate stuff , you wonder if the Biden team @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we ’ ll probably lose the Senate in 2022 even if Democrats overcome a tough map to narrowly gain control of it in 2020 , so we should make the best pick regardless of what that means for the Senate.
’ nrakich : Yeah , maybe .
But there is definitely a downside to picking someone like Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin , who I suspect will go unchosen in this draft .
Baldwin ’ s seat would go immediately to a special election in 2021 , and Wisconsin of course is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democrats ’ hypothetical Senate majority almost right away .
sarahf : That ’ s a good pick , Nathaniel , and could be a good way for Biden to broaden his base , considering his struggle to win the Latino vote in Nevada relative to Sanders .
Although , of course , that has its limitations .
What do we know about Cortez Masto ’ s politics , though ?
Isn ’ t she more of a moderate Democrat ?
geoffrey.skelley : According to VoteView.com ’ s ideological scoring , she ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Democratic Party , maybe slightly to the left of it .
nrakich : I think because she is unknown to many voters , she ( and/or Biden ) could define her ideology however they want , which I think is a plus .
( Although she is a member of the establishment , as evidenced by her leadership of the DSCC . )
sarahf : OK , last round — take us away , Nathaniel .
nrakich : For my last pick , I ’ ll go with New Mexico Gov .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ arguably the best pick among Democratic governors , many of whom were just elected in 2018 and therefore aren ’ t that experienced .
However , Lujan Grisham also served six years in the House of Representatives , so I think her combined experience passes the bar .
Plus , as a Latina , she is Democrats ’ only nonwhite woman governor .
sarahf : I was wondering if we were going to get around to including any governors in this draft !
geoffrey.skelley : I think some folks may be surprised she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agreed , she has an experience level that surpasses some other newly-elected 2018 governors .
nrakich : Yeah , even though many governors are getting high marks for how they ’ re handling the coronavirus crisis right now , Democrats ’ gubernatorial bench is just pretty weak thanks to their drubbings in the 2010 and 2014 midterms .
Plus , Democrats really love picking senators as running mates — 15 of the last 18 Democratic vice-presidential candidates have been senators !
sarahf : Is that some foreshadowing of your last pick , Geoffrey @ @ @ @ @ @ @ depend on what you do , Sarah !
sarahf : So for my last pick , I ’ m going to go with Stacey Abrams .
Working against her is the fact that she probably has the least amount of government experience of all the picks named .
Yes , she was a Georgia state representative for 10 years , but she isn ’ t currently a public official .
That said , her 2018 gubernatorial bid against Gov .
Brian Kemp was close , which is impressive in a red state like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to how skilled of a politician she is too , considering she ’ s been able to stay in the national conversation , even though she ’ s not currently in office .
The way she ’ s breaking the ( unspoken ) rules by actively campaigning for VP is fascinating to watch , too .
She had this powerful line in a recent interview where she explained her decision to push for the job , saying , “ If you don ’ t raise your hand , people won ’ t see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ desire for the job will be portrayed as a power-hungry move and alienate some in the party because it violates the norms around how nominees pick their running mates , but I could also see that drive resonating with a lot of voters .
nrakich : Yeah , Sarah , I ’ m also fascinated to see where her unorthodox strategy of campaigning for the job leads .
But ultimately , I think Abrams would be a bad pick for Biden because there would be lots of questions about whether she is prepared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
geoffrey.skelley : “ Unorthodox ” is the right word — it ’ s atypical for someone to actively seek the vice presidency in the press .
nrakich : I could see it rubbing a lot of people the wrong way , but also , I think there would be a racial and gendered element to any criticism .
Would a white man be criticized for being outspoken about his ambitions ?
sarahf : Exactly , Nathaniel , that ’ s why I think it ’ s so interesting to see Abrams campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ You ’ re right that it probably does irritate some party veterans , but I think it ’ s a powerful message that could resonate with a lot of rank-and-file voters .
geoffrey.skelley : Abrams could be an energizing force for Biden ’ s campaign , too .
She ’ s only 46 and has such a strong profile built off her narrow loss in the 2018 gubernatorial race in Georgia .
Maybe there ’ s a case that she helps Biden with black voters and younger ones whom Biden didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
sarahf : True .
But OK , Geoffrey , take us home !
Last pick !
geoffrey.skelley : Alright , for my last pick , I was a bit torn because there are a fair number of directions I could see the Biden campaign going .
But I ’ ll pick “ that woman in Michigan ” — Gov .
Gretchen Whitmer .
Her experience level is a question mark — she only won her office in 2018 .
But she ’ s had a lengthy political career in Michigan , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ handling of the coronavirus crisis despite becoming a national political figure , maybe that strengthens her resume enough .
While I , too , am skeptical of there being a significant home-state benefit to vice-presidential picks , Whitmer is from Michigan , a state Trump very narrowly carried in 2016 .
And more broadly , she might serve Biden well in the region as a whole .
She ’ s also only 48 years old , making her one of the younger possibilities we ’ ve mentioned today .
That could give the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Yeah , on the experience front , I dunno… She might get a pass from the media or low-information voters because she ’ s been governor during this time of crisis .
And she was the Democratic leader in the Michigan Senate , which isn ’ t nothing .
But I just don ’ t know if that ’ s enough to be prepared to be leader of the free world .
Her handling of the coronavirus crisis may not be the selling point that many analysts assume it is either .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a no-bid state contract for tracking coronavirus cases to Democratic-connected firms .
That ’ s the kind of rookie mistake that comes with inexperience .
Plus , how would it look for her to take a leave of absence from the governorship amid a pandemic to go campaign ?
sarahf : One other thing that ’ s been weighing on me as we ’ ve chatted about Biden ’ s potential VPs is the kind of weird place we find ourselves in .
On the one hand , we know Biden is going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just don ’ t know who .
And that ’ s complicated because whomever Biden picks , she ’ ll be tasked with defending his alleged track record with women , which is daunting — there ’ s the inappropriate touching claims from earlier in 2019 and now former Biden staffer Tara Reade has accused Biden of sexual assault .
That ’ s something that his VP , especially because she will be a woman , will have to speak to no matter who she is .
nrakich : Yeah , I ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ play out .
For whatever reason — no room in the coronavirus news cycle ?
media bias ?
Trump and Republicans aren ’ t harping on it ?
— Reade ’ s allegations haven ’ t gotten a lot of traction yet .
But with Business Insider finding someone whom Reade told about the alleged assault at the time , it seems like they aren ’ t going away either .
So far , though , female politicians ( not that women are the only ones who care about this issue ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , are still supporting Biden , or at least aren ’ t saying anything about the accusations .
Hillary Clinton even endorsed Biden on Tuesday .
sarahf : Yeah , it ’ s hard at this point to say how this will all shake out for Biden .
If more women step forward or if we get more corroboration around Reade ’ s allegations , I have to think this causes Biden serious trouble .
But even if that doesn ’ t happen , whoever Biden ’ s VP is will have to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and as Rebecca Traister wrote for New York Magazine , that might be a hard pill to swallow .

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): You may have thought that with former Vice President Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee our 2020 drafts were finally over. Well, no such luck. There’s still the question of whom Biden will pick as his vice president. We know thanks to his announcement at an earlier presidential debate that he plans to pick a female running mate, but that’s it.
So we’re back with a snake draft of whom Biden should pick for his VP. How it works is simple: Three rounds total, so between the three of us, nine potential 2020 Democratic veeps. And the draft line up is …
Nathaniel Sarah Geoffrey
OK, you’re up, Nathaniel.
nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): Ahhh, I wanted the second pick.
geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Hahaha, really?
nrakich: Yeah — I think there are two equally strong contenders for the first overall pick. But I will go for the more obvious one: Sen. Kamala Harris.
Harris obviously ran for president already, which means she’s been vetted. She has also long been considered a rising star in the party. Plus, she would make history as both the first African American and first Asian American vice president, and African American voters are probably a group that Biden should reach out to given that he won the nomination thanks largely to their support. And this goes without saying, but Democrats will want to try to get African American turnout in the general election closer to where it was for former President Barack Obama than where it was for Hillary Clinton.
There will inevitably be some “ooh, remember how they attacked each other in that first primary debate” chatter, but I think that moment is overblown. Harris was doing what she had to do to win. And both before and after that incident, Biden and Harris have reportedly gotten along quite well.
geoffrey.skelley: Some say the first rule of vice presidential selection is to “do no harm,” and Harris would probably fit that bill on a number of fronts. She’s been in the spotlight and vetted as a former presidential candidate, as Nathaniel said. In other words, she’d meet the “Ready on Day 1” test that I think is pretty key for Biden.
Additionally, California isn’t a swing state, but Harris’s Senate seat would likely remain in Democratic hands. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom would appoint her replacement and when her seat is up in 2022, Democrats would be very likely to hold onto it.
nrakich: Yeah, I think the home-state effect of vice-presidential candidates is slim to none. That’s going to inform a lot of my picks.
sarahf: In their veepstakes feature on Tuesday, Politico set up Biden’s VP decision as a choice between appealing to black voters and appealing to the progressive wing of the party. So if he were to select Harris — whom I agree does seem like a very solid pick for him — I guess that only checks one of those boxes. But arguably, it’s not really possible for Biden to check both boxes with one VP.
geoffrey.skelley: I think the Biden campaign would argue Harris gives them some of both — she is a cosponsor on Sen. Bernie Sanders’s Medicare for All legislation, for instance.
sarahf: That’s true, but I still think about how she infamously raised her hand in one of the early debates to say she supported Medicare for All, only to walk that back later.
nrakich: Yeah, one downside to Harris is that the progressive wing of the party doesn’t really trust her. (Think of the “Kamala is a cop” meme.) But I agree, it’s hard to appeal to both, and I think African Americans are the more important constituency for Biden.
sarahf: Well, and to the point you raised initially, Nathaniel, Biden won the nomination thanks in large part to black Democrats’ support — think South Carolina in particular — so it’s hard to not think that is a major consideration for Biden when weighing options.
But OK, I’m up. Ugh. At least I don’t have to go last in this draft.
geoffrey.skelley: Sigh.
sarahf: So I’m not totally sure I agree with my own pick, but if part of the optics around Biden’s VP pick requires appealing to black voters or progressive voters, I wonder if he can’t try and do both by picking Rep. Ayanna Pressley.
I know Sen. Elizabeth Warren would be a more natural, high-profile pick to represent the progressive wing of the party, especially considering she ran for president, and Pressley is only a one-term House representative, but I’d argue Pressley, like fellow Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, represents a new direction for the party, which I think is an important characteristic for Biden’s VP to have.
I suppose that Pressley’s lack of experience is what hurts her chances to be Biden’s running mate the most. Massachusetts isn’t exactly a swing state either.
nrakich: Bold pick! Although I have learned the hard way not to bet against Sarah in these drafts…
I think Pressley is an interesting choice, but ultimately, I think the lack of experience dooms her. Biden, at 77, is the oldest major-party presidential nominee ever. That means the top consideration for the Biden campaign should be picking someone who will be ready to become president on day one.
geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, Pressley is fascinating, and it’s no coincidence that her name popped up in discussions about what might happen to Warren’s Senate seat if Warren had won the nomination (or maybe the vice presidency, still). But I agree with Nathaniel that Biden is unlikely to pick a one-term House member.
She’s a rising star, but maybe the 2020 election is just too near.
sarahf: The lack of experience definitely cuts against Pressley. But if Biden’s top VP considerations are appealing to black and progressive voters, I think it’s impressive she can check both boxes. I also thought she was a pretty effective endorser of Warren in the primary, but yeah, I admit that I’m not convinced this will actually happen.
OK, you’re up Geoffrey!!
geoffrey.skelley: Alright, I think my first pick is a bit predictable, but she would obviously fit in nicely with Biden’s political outlook: Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
nrakich: Oh, bad pick.
Maybe my alternative first choice will still be on the board after all…
geoffrey.skelley: She ran for president and has a long history of doing well in a purple state. Plus, she endorsed Biden right after dropping out of the Democratic presidential primary, so that may have also nicely positioned her for consideration.
And again, if the idea is to do no harm, she’s a fairly safe choice. But whereas I can see some progressives coming around to Harris, it’s harder to see that happening with Klobuchar.
Nevertheless, I think that after Harris, she’s probably the second-most-likely senator to get picked.
sarahf: That’s true, Geoffrey, I don’t see progressives warming up to Klobuchar like they might with Harris. In some ways, picking Klobuchar would be Biden doubling down on his base — i.e., appealing to more moderate voters, right?
Why do you say, bad pick, Nathaniel?
nrakich: I just don’t see what Klobuchar adds. She is incredibly redundant with Biden in terms of ideology and appeal to swing voters. Biden should try to pick someone who appeals to a different constituency.
geoffrey.skelley: There’s a chance Biden will view that redundancy as a good thing, though.
nrakich: I’m also not sure that Klobuchar wouldn’t do any harm … While I could see the left grumbling about, but ultimately accepting, Harris, I think they would be much more actively opposed to Klobuchar, who was always toward the center of the Democratic presidential field.
geoffrey.skelley: That’s fair, but at the same time, I suspect Klobuchar wouldn’t turn off some of the voters in the middle the way Harris might.
nrakich: Also, it’s not necessarily a dealbreaker in the same way it would be for some other potential VP picks (cough Tammy Baldwin cough), but if Klobuchar resigns from the Senate, her seat would go to a special election in November 2022, two years ahead of schedule, putting a Senate seat unnecessarily in danger.
geoffrey.skelley: But that’s a concern with almost every senator outside of Harris!
Democrats have a fairly deep bench in Minnesota, too, so that might not be that risky of a move.
nrakich: Hm, I disagree there. Other senators are on different schedules or hail from bluer states than Minnesota.
geoffrey.skelley: Out of the people likely to get picked, though?
Maybe Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.
nrakich: Shhh, spoilers!
geoffrey.skelley: Lol, the Senate special election discussion could take up half the chat.
Anyway.
nrakich: Was that not the plan??
In all seriousness, though, it’s a very important factor in the veepstakes discussion. A President Biden would need every Democratic vote in the Senate he can muster to pass his agenda.
sarahf: That’s a good point, but OK — you’re up again, Geoffrey.
geoffrey.skelley: My next pick is Sen. Tammy Duckworth. The Illinois senator flies a little under the radar, but she’s got a fascinating background as an Asian American veteran who lost both her legs as a helicopter pilot fighting in Iraq. She’s also from a blue state, so her seat would be more likely to remain in Democratic hands (it’s up in 2022).
However, as 2010 showed, weird things can happen — the GOP captured this very same seat that year, formerly held by Obama, so it’s worth noting that Illinois isn’t California.
nrakich: Ah, dammit. Duckworth was my second choice. She would be a great pick, for all the reasons Geoffrey says.
geoffrey.skelley: She also gave birth while in office, the first senator to do so!
There’s just a lot to her story that I could see winning the Biden campaign over.
nrakich: Yeah, she has a great story to tell, on many different dimensions.
And her low national name recognition right now could be seen as a reason not to pick her, but it’s also an opportunity.
sarahf: Right, I mean it’s not like Sen. Tim Kaine had a huge national profile prior to when Clinton picked him in 2016.
nrakich: Yeah, I think people generally overrate people who ran for president and lost when thinking about veep contenders.
geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, honestly the main reason I picked Klobuchar ahead of Duckworth was Klobuchar ran for president and has more of a national profile. But Duckworth might be the better pick — it’s less clear that she would offend any part of the Democratic coalition.
sarahf: OK, let’s see. It undercuts my first pick (Pressley), but I also think Warren would be interesting. Clearly, I have a Massachusetts bias.
nrakich: Massachusetts bias is nothing to be ashamed of, Sarah.
sarahf: But assuming national profile matters somewhat in who a candidate picks for VP (to be clear, the political science on this isn’t really clear, but it does seem to matter to party elites), Warren has got that covered. And apparently, when Biden was still considering running in 2016, he wanted Warren as his running mate! That’s interesting to me, considering the visible bad blood between the two during the debates (thinking about their heated exchange over who deserves credit for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau).
What Warren would bring to the ticket is an ideological balance that I think few other candidates could give Biden, but I could also see her being a potential general election risk for Biden. I’m also not sure if the other constituency she appeals to — college-educated whites — is where Biden needs the most help?
geoffrey.skelley: Warren would certainly meet the Ready on Day 1 test, plus she’d unify the party pretty well. I do wonder if she’s a case where the Biden campaign might be concerned that the VP pick outshines the presidential nominee. That’s on top of the concerns that her progressive views might alienate some in the middle.
nrakich: Yeah, Warren was also pretty high on my board. If you decide your goal is to appeal to progressives, there’s no better choice (other than, I guess, Sen. Bernie Sanders, although that isn’t going to happen for many reasons). She has the experience to be president and demonstrated that she has a loyal following with her strong presidential campaign.
geoffrey.skelley: That’s true, but there is still the always-thorny electability question about whether Warren’s progressive positions would harm Biden’s attempts to have a broader appeal.
nrakich: Yeah, I wonder how that would play, Geoffrey. In this age of polarization, it’s debatable whether a presidential nominee on the ideological extremes still puts the ticket at a disadvantage; would a vice-presidential nominee on the extremes do the same thing? I’m not so sure.
geoffrey.skelley: I will say that a Warren pick would be interesting in that, at 71 years old by Election Day, Warren would be less likely to end up running for president should Biden win, so the VP pick wouldn’t necessarily be a launch pad for the next presidential contender.
nrakich: Eh, I don’t know, she could probably run in 2024 if she wanted. (I think there’s a strong possibility that Biden would not run for a second term.)
geoffrey.skelley: That’s true, but with most of these other names, the VP would very likely run in the future if the ticket won — or even if it didn’t. But we’re probably getting a little ahead of ourselves here.
sarahf: OK, Nathaniel, you’re up with your second and third picks!
nrakich: OK, next on my list is Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada. She has risen quickly in the Senate ranks; though she was just elected in 2016, she has already become chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. (I guess you could ding her for being inexperienced, but she was also state attorney general for two terms before that — in other words, she’s as experienced as Harris.) And, as a Latina, she would bring some racial diversity to the ticket, although I don’t want to imply that means she will automatically boost the ticket with Latino voters. Latinos are not a uniform group, and picking a Mexican American woman from the West wouldn’t necessarily resonate with, say, Cuban American voters in Florida.
(And, for you Senate special-election nerds, Cortez Masto’s seat will be up for election in 2022 regardless, so the only difference will be whether it is an open seat or not.)
geoffrey.skelley: Definitely a good pick. She’s under the radar, sort of like Duckworth, but has a very strong resume and a history-making backstory.
But with the Senate stuff, you wonder if the Biden team’s mindset is, ‘Look, we’ll probably lose the Senate in 2022 even if Democrats overcome a tough map to narrowly gain control of it in 2020, so we should make the best pick regardless of what that means for the Senate.’
nrakich: Yeah, maybe. But there is definitely a downside to picking someone like Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who I suspect will go unchosen in this draft. Baldwin’s seat would go immediately to a special election in 2021, and Wisconsin of course is a purple-to-light-red state. So that would cripple Democrats’ hypothetical Senate majority almost right away.
sarahf: That’s a good pick, Nathaniel, and could be a good way for Biden to broaden his base, considering his struggle to win the Latino vote in Nevada relative to Sanders. Although, of course, that has its limitations. What do we know about Cortez Masto’s politics, though? Isn’t she more of a moderate Democrat?
geoffrey.skelley: According to VoteView.com’s ideological scoring, she’s more or less around the middle of the Democratic Party, maybe slightly to the left of it.
nrakich: I think because she is unknown to many voters, she (and/or Biden) could define her ideology however they want, which I think is a plus. (Although she is a member of the establishment, as evidenced by her leadership of the DSCC.)
sarahf: OK, last round — take us away, Nathaniel.
nrakich: For my last pick, I’ll go with New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham. She’s arguably the best pick among Democratic governors, many of whom were just elected in 2018 and therefore aren’t that experienced. However, Lujan Grisham also served six years in the House of Representatives, so I think her combined experience passes the bar. Plus, as a Latina, she is Democrats’ only nonwhite woman governor.
sarahf: I was wondering if we were going to get around to including any governors in this draft!
geoffrey.skelley: I think some folks may be surprised she was the first governor taken!
But agreed, she has an experience level that surpasses some other newly-elected 2018 governors.
nrakich: Yeah, even though many governors are getting high marks for how they’re handling the coronavirus crisis right now, Democrats’ gubernatorial bench is just pretty weak thanks to their drubbings in the 2010 and 2014 midterms. Plus, Democrats really love picking senators as running mates — 15 of the last 18 Democratic vice-presidential candidates have been senators!
sarahf: Is that some foreshadowing of your last pick, Geoffrey?
geoffrey.skelley: I guess that may depend on what you do, Sarah!
sarahf: So for my last pick, I’m going to go with Stacey Abrams. Working against her is the fact that she probably has the least amount of government experience of all the picks named. Yes, she was a Georgia state representative for 10 years, but she isn’t currently a public official. That said, her 2018 gubernatorial bid against Gov. Brian Kemp was close, which is impressive in a red state like Georgia.
It’s a testament to how skilled of a politician she is too, considering she’s been able to stay in the national conversation, even though she’s not currently in office. The way she’s breaking the (unspoken) rules by actively campaigning for VP is fascinating to watch, too. She had this powerful line in a recent interview where she explained her decision to push for the job, saying, “If you don’t raise your hand, people won’t see you.”
I understand how her outspoken desire for the job will be portrayed as a power-hungry move and alienate some in the party because it violates the norms around how nominees pick their running mates, but I could also see that drive resonating with a lot of voters.
nrakich: Yeah, Sarah, I’m also fascinated to see where her unorthodox strategy of campaigning for the job leads. But ultimately, I think Abrams would be a bad pick for Biden because there would be lots of questions about whether she is prepared to step into the role of president.
geoffrey.skelley: “Unorthodox” is the right word — it’s atypical for someone to actively seek the vice presidency in the press.
nrakich: I could see it rubbing a lot of people the wrong way, but also, I think there would be a racial and gendered element to any criticism. Would a white man be criticized for being outspoken about his ambitions?
sarahf: Exactly, Nathaniel, that’s why I think it’s so interesting to see Abrams campaign for the job in this way. You’re right that it probably does irritate some party veterans, but I think it’s a powerful message that could resonate with a lot of rank-and-file voters.
geoffrey.skelley: Abrams could be an energizing force for Biden’s campaign, too. She’s only 46 and has such a strong profile built off her narrow loss in the 2018 gubernatorial race in Georgia. Maybe there’s a case that she helps Biden with black voters and younger ones whom Biden didn’t do as well with during the primary.
sarahf: True. But OK, Geoffrey, take us home! Last pick!
geoffrey.skelley: Alright, for my last pick, I was a bit torn because there are a fair number of directions I could see the Biden campaign going. But I’ll pick “that woman in Michigan” — Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Her experience level is a question mark — she only won her office in 2018. But she’s had a lengthy political career in Michigan, and if her approval holds up on her handling of the coronavirus crisis despite becoming a national political figure, maybe that strengthens her resume enough.
While I, too, am skeptical of there being a significant home-state benefit to vice-presidential picks, Whitmer is from Michigan, a state Trump very narrowly carried in 2016. And more broadly, she might serve Biden well in the region as a whole. She’s also only 48 years old, making her one of the younger possibilities we’ve mentioned today. That could give the ticket a nice generational balance.
nrakich: Yeah, on the experience front, I dunno… She might get a pass from the media or low-information voters because she’s been governor during this time of crisis. And she was the Democratic leader in the Michigan Senate, which isn’t nothing. But I just don’t know if that’s enough to be prepared to be leader of the free world.
Her handling of the coronavirus crisis may not be the selling point that many analysts assume it is either. She got in trouble recently for giving a no-bid state contract for tracking coronavirus cases to Democratic-connected firms. That’s the kind of rookie mistake that comes with inexperience.
Plus, how would it look for her to take a leave of absence from the governorship amid a pandemic to go campaign?
sarahf: One other thing that’s been weighing on me as we’ve chatted about Biden’s potential VPs is the kind of weird place we find ourselves in. On the one hand, we know Biden is going to pick a woman, but we just don’t know who.
And that’s complicated because whomever Biden picks, she’ll be tasked with defending his alleged track record with women, which is daunting — there’s the inappropriate touching claims from earlier in 2019 and now former Biden staffer Tara Reade has accused Biden of sexual assault. That’s something that his VP, especially because she will be a woman, will have to speak to no matter who she is.
nrakich: Yeah, I’ll be watching how these latest allegations play out.
For whatever reason — no room in the coronavirus news cycle? media bias? Trump and Republicans aren’t harping on it? — Reade’s allegations haven’t gotten a lot of traction yet. But with Business Insider finding someone whom Reade told about the alleged assault at the time, it seems like they aren’t going away either.
So far, though, female politicians (not that women are the only ones who care about this issue), including some we mentioned in this chat, are still supporting Biden, or at least aren’t saying anything about the accusations. Hillary Clinton even endorsed Biden on Tuesday.
sarahf: Yeah, it’s hard at this point to say how this will all shake out for Biden. If more women step forward or if we get more corroboration around Reade’s allegations, I have to think this causes Biden serious trouble. But even if that doesn’t happen, whoever Biden’s VP is will have to talk about his relationship with women, and as Rebecca Traister wrote for New York Magazine, that might be a hard pill to swallow.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Is COVID-19 already hurting Trump politically?


fivethirtyeight--2020-04-29--Why Biden Probably Won’t Announce His Running Mate For Months

With the presidential primary essentially settled , talk has already turned to who will be former Vice President Joe Biden ’ s running mate .
But if history is any guide , we won ’ t know the answer for a few months .
In the modern era of presidential nominations , which began when a number of primary reforms were implemented in 1972 , the presumptive presidential nominee has never announced his or her vice presidential pick before July 6 .
And we could be waiting much longer than that : A few running mates haven ’ t been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wide date range obscures the fact that vice presidential candidate announcements are closely tied to the timing of the party conventions — which , of course , varies every election year .
Four of the vice presidential nominees since 1972 were announced at the convention , and almost all the others were announced shortly before .
For most of American history , vice presidential nominees were chosen during the conventions themselves , originally by the same chaotic , multiple-ballot process that was used to pick presidential nominees , but eventually at the direction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that started with Franklin D. Roosevelt choosing Henry Wallace in 1940 .
And in 1984 , Walter Mondale became the first presidential candidate to announce his running mate before the convention began ( his pick , Geraldine Ferraro , also made history in another , more important way — she was the first woman on a major-party presidential ticket ) .
Since then , the No .
2 spot on the ticket has almost always been announced the week before the convention , with the median vice presidential announcement occurring four days before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there have been some exceptions to this pattern .
John Kerry revealed John Edwards as his choice on July 6 , 2004 — 20 days before the Democratic convention — and Mitt Romney unveiled Paul Ryan on Aug. 11 , 2012 — 16 days before the Republican conference .
This ( plus failed presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz ’ s stunt of choosing businesswoman Carly Fiorina in 2016 ) could suggest it ’ s becoming more common for candidates to announce their running mates weeks in advance .
However , Cruz ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to resurrect his sinking presidential campaign , and Romney ’ s was seen as an attempt to change the narrative amid a bad news cycle , so we should probably still only expect early announcements in limited circumstances .
( And considering that Biden is leading Trump in most early polls , he does not fit the historical mold of a candidate who needs to announce his choice early . )
At one point , we probably could have expected Biden ’ s announcement in early July , shortly before the Democratic National @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But the coronavirus-related delay of the convention to the week of Aug. 17 probably also pushed back the timing of the veep pick .
If Biden follows the pattern of past nominees , we can probably expect to learn the identity of his running mate the week of Aug. 10 .
And if you ’ re trying to plan when exactly to track airplanes or monitor finalists ’ every move , might I recommend Friday , Aug. 14 ?
The last five vice presidential picks have all been announced either the Friday before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

With the presidential primary essentially settled, talk has already turned to who will be former Vice President Joe Biden’s running mate. But if history is any guide, we won’t know the answer for a few months.
In the modern era of presidential nominations, which began when a number of primary reforms were implemented in 1972, the presumptive presidential nominee has never announced his or her vice presidential pick before July 6. And we could be waiting much longer than that: A few running mates haven’t been announced until late August.
Running mates often get picked in late summer When each vice presidential nominee was announced, since 1972 Pres. Nominee V.P. Nominee Party Date Announced Days Before Convention McGovern Shriver* D Aug. 5, 1972 -23 Carter Mondale D July 15, 1976 0 Ford Dole R Aug. 19, 1976 0 Reagan H.W. Bush R July 17, 1980 0 Mondale Ferraro D July 12, 1984 4 Dukakis Bentsen D July 12, 1988 6 H.W. Bush Quayle R Aug. 16, 1988 0 Clinton Gore D July 9, 1992 4 Dole Kemp R Aug. 10, 1996 2 W. Bush Cheney R July 25, 2000 6 Gore Lieberman D Aug. 7, 2000 7 Kerry Edwards D July 6, 2004 20 Obama Biden D Aug. 23, 2008 2 McCain Palin R Aug. 29, 2008 3 Romney Ryan R Aug. 11, 2012 16 Trump Pence R July 15, 2016 3 Clinton Kaine D July 22, 2016 3 *Sargent Shriver replaced Thomas Eagleton as McGovern’s vice presidential pick 23 days after the 1972 Democratic National Convention ended. Mondale, Dole, H.W. Bush and Quayle were announced during their party’s convention. SourceS: News reports, library of congress
But that wide date range obscures the fact that vice presidential candidate announcements are closely tied to the timing of the party conventions — which, of course, varies every election year. Four of the vice presidential nominees since 1972 were announced at the convention, and almost all the others were announced shortly before.
For most of American history, vice presidential nominees were chosen during the conventions themselves, originally by the same chaotic, multiple-ballot process that was used to pick presidential nominees, but eventually at the direction of the presidential nominee, a trend that started with Franklin D. Roosevelt choosing Henry Wallace in 1940. And in 1984, Walter Mondale became the first presidential candidate to announce his running mate before the convention began (his pick, Geraldine Ferraro, also made history in another, more important way — she was the first woman on a major-party presidential ticket).
Since then, the No. 2 spot on the ticket has almost always been announced the week before the convention, with the median vice presidential announcement occurring four days before the convention gavels in. However, there have been some exceptions to this pattern. John Kerry revealed John Edwards as his choice on July 6, 2004 — 20 days before the Democratic convention — and Mitt Romney unveiled Paul Ryan on Aug. 11, 2012 — 16 days before the Republican conference.
This (plus failed presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz’s stunt of choosing businesswoman Carly Fiorina in 2016 ) could suggest it’s becoming more common for candidates to announce their running mates weeks in advance. However, Cruz’s selection was seen as a desperate ploy to resurrect his sinking presidential campaign, and Romney’s was seen as an attempt to change the narrative amid a bad news cycle, so we should probably still only expect early announcements in limited circumstances. (And considering that Biden is leading Trump in most early polls, he does not fit the historical mold of a candidate who needs to announce his choice early.)
At one point, we probably could have expected Biden’s announcement in early July, shortly before the Democratic National Convention kicked off on July 13. But the coronavirus-related delay of the convention to the week of Aug. 17 probably also pushed back the timing of the veep pick. If Biden follows the pattern of past nominees, we can probably expect to learn the identity of his running mate the week of Aug. 10. And if you’re trying to plan when exactly to track airplanes or monitor finalists’ every move, might I recommend Friday, Aug. 14? The last five vice presidential picks have all been announced either the Friday before the convention or early that Saturday morning.
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Is COVID-19 already hurting Trump politically?


fivethirtyeight--2020-04-30--What The U.S. Really Needs To Do To Reopen

Galen Druke speaks with Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health to discuss what needs @ @ @ @ @ reopen safely amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic .

What The U.S. Really Needs To Do To Reopen
Galen Druke speaks with professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health to discuss what needs to happen for states to reopen safely amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.


fivethirtyeight--2020-04-30--Politics Podcast: Ready Or Not, The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen

As April comes to an end , about half of the states in the nation are beginning to reopen from @ @ @ @ @ installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast , Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg @ @ @ @ @ the criteria that should be met in order for states to reopen .
States that @ @ @ @ @ not met those criteria .
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “ @ @ @ @ @ audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes , the ESPN App or your @ @ @ @ @ you are new to podcasts , learn how to listen .
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast @ @ @ @ @ Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes @ @ @ @ @ question or suggestion for “ good polling vs. bad polling ” ?
Get in touch @ @ @ @ @ or in the comments .

As April comes to an end, about half of the states in the nation are beginning to reopen after COVID-19-related shutdowns. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health discusses the criteria that should be met before states try to lift restrictions. So far, she says, the states looking to move toward normality have largely not met those criteria.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.


fivethirtyeight--2020-04-30--Switching To A Vote-By-Mail Election Is Tougher Than It Seems

With the ongoing coronavirus pandemic , many people seem eager to switch to a vote-by-mail system for the general election @ @ @ @ @ Nathaniel Rakich looks into why such a switch is more difficult than it seems here @ @ @ @ @

With the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, many people seem eager to switch to a vote-by-mail system for the general election in November. Elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich looks into why such a switch is more difficult than it seems here in the United States.


fivethirtyeight--2020-05-01--We’ve Got Some Early Trump vs. Biden Swing State Polling

Welcome to Pollapalooza , our weekly polling roundup .
Joe Biden , the presumptive Democratic nominee for president , leads President Trump in most national polls , and surveys conducted even this far out have tended to roughly resemble the eventual general election results , as FiveThirtyEight ’ s Geoffrey Skelley explained in an article this week .
Of course , national polls measure the national popular vote , which is really only indirectly related to who will win the White House — Democrats have won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College in two of the last seven @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 .
U.S. presidential elections are really a contest of states .
So what ’ s going on in the states ?
We thought it was worth taking a look at that question now , as April featured some high-quality , state-level polling ( though not a ton of it ) .
It also happened to be the month when the general election came into sharper focus : It ’ s now clear who the Democratic nominee will be and that the novel coronavirus pandemic will be a major part of the campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looking at every state-level poll conducted in April : Several polling firms released surveys of Florida , Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in April .
Former President Barack Obama carried all four states in 2012 .
Trump flipped all four in 2016 ( as well as Ohio and Iowa , neither of which has much recent polling . )
And Biden appears to lead in all four now .
( North Carolina , which has gone Republican in both of the last two cycles , was also polled pretty often in April , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there . )
This data highlights a few things .
First , at least at the moment , Florida , Michigan , Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are very close to the national tipping point — so they ’ re likely to be among the more determinative states this November .
Second , the former vice president ’ s lead nationally is big enough to carry these states .
This is important — if Biden wins all of the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016 plus any combination of three of these four , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Biden ’ s margins in these states are slightly smaller than his advantage in national polls .
It ’ s worth thinking about the race at the state level in these relative terms because there ’ s still so much time for things to shift .
If Biden ’ s lead nationally narrowed to 2 to 3 percentage points , these states would likely be much closer , if not lean toward Trump .
Also , as The New York Times ’ Nate Cohn wrote recently , Trump is likely to look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to “ likely voters.
” Most of the April surveys in these four states were conducted among registered voters or all adults , two groups that include some people who may not vote in November .
In other words , this data suggests Trump may have an Electoral College advantage again — he could lose the popular vote and win the election .
Of course , this data also suggests that if Biden is winning overall by a margin similar to his advantage now , Trump ’ s potential Electoral College edge really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particularly strong in Michigan and Pennsylvania It ’ s not worth making too much of small differences among states — we don ’ t have a lot of polling and things will likely shift between now and November anyway .
But it seems pretty clear Biden is doing better in Michigan and Pennsylvania than Florida and Wisconsin .
Fox News , Ipsos and Public Policy Polling all recently polled several swing states .
All three found Biden had a larger lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania than in other swing states they surveyed ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wisconsin for PPP , Wisconsin for Ipsos . )
The race is unclear in other Trump 2016 states Outside of the five states I discussed above , a recent poll of Arizona was great for the former vice president , while he wasn ’ t looking as strong in a survey of Georgia .
But I would be very cautious about states in which we only have one or two recent polls .
So please keep that caveat in mind , but here are all the states for which we got polls in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one poll : I do think Biden could win Arizona , but that ’ s based more on Democrats ’ winning a U.S. Senate race there in 2018 than the recent OH Predictive Insights survey that showed Biden with a 9-point lead in the state .
It ’ s likely that Trump and Republicans will target Maine , Minnesota , Nevada and New Hampshire in particular — looking for an upset in states Democrats could overlook because they might assume Biden won ’ t lose where Clinton won four years ago .
Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 .
Maine , Minnesota and New Hampshire are states in which a disproportionately high percentage of the electorate is non-Hispanic white voters without college degrees , an electoral bloc in which the president was especially strong in 2016 and could make even more gains in 2020 .
But we just need more polling to get a sense for how these states are shaping up relative to the country overall .
All we have is one recent poll from any of these four states — a survey showing the former vice president ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden ’ s prospects would be brighter if he ends up outperforming Clinton among non-college whites , making these states less Republican-leaning relative to the country than they were in 2016 .
• Among registered voters in New York , 32 percent said they personally know someone who has died as a result of the coronavirus , according to a new Siena College Research Institute poll , compared to 67 percent who said they did not .
That first number is higher among the state ’ s black ( 48 percent ) and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as well as those who live in New York City ( 46 percent . )
• About 37 percent of American adults said they had a positive view of capitalism , compared to 41 percent with a neutral view and 21 percent who viewed capitalism negatively , according to a new poll from the left-leaning firm Data for Progress .
Socialism is less popular , at 18 percent positive , 44 percent neutral , 38 percent negative .
• More than half of American adults said their employment status had been negatively @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a recent Gallup poll .
The effects included a loss of income ( 26 percent ) , hours being reduced ( 15 percent ) , being temporarily laid off ( 10 percent ) and losing their job permanently ( 2 percent ) .
Of the adults who were surveyed who live in households with incomes below $ 35,000 , 68 percent said they had experienced at least one of these four negative effects .
Among those in households with incomes over $ 90,000 per year , 49 percent said they had experienced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of American adults said they thought Trump was kidding when he suggested that scientists study the idea of people injecting disinfectants into their bodies as a way to fight the coronavirus , according to a recent YouGov survey .
The majority of Americans ( 54 percent ) did not think Trump was joking .
There was a clear partisan split : 68 percent of Republicans said the president was kidding , compared to 16 percent who said he was not and another 16 percent who said they were not sure .
• Black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely than Hispanic ( 13 percent ) or non-Hispanic white ( 9 percent ) adults to say they know someone who has died from COVID-19 , according to a recent Axios-Ipsos survey .
People in the Northeast ( 25 percent ) were more likely to know someone who has died of the virus than those in the South ( 12 percent ) , Midwest ( 8 percent ) or West ( 7 percent . )
Democrats ( 15 percent ) were more likely to know someone who has died than Republicans ( 8 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Post/University of Maryland survey found 65 percent of American adults supported temporarily blocking immigration to the U.S. during the COVID-19 outbreak .
( Trump recently enacted a temporary halt to the issuing of green cards , although the pollsters who conducted this survey did not refer to the president ’ s announcement in their question . )
Republicans ( 83 percent ) and independents ( 67 percent ) overwhelmingly favored this idea , while Democrats were split ( 49 percent supported it , 49 percent opposed it . )
• Relatively few registered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thought Trump is “ honest and trustworthy , ” according to a new USA Today/Suffolk University poll .
But Trump gets higher marks on standing up for American interests ( 53 percent of voters agreed with this notion ) , knowing how to get things done ( 51 percent ) , being a strong leader ( 45 percent ) , working with foreign leaders ( 45 percent ) and caring about “ people like me ” ( 39 percent . )
Biden was rated the highest by voters on being able to work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they agree with this notion ) and was ahead of Trump in three other measures as well .
But voters weren ’ t that confident that Biden is a strong leader ( 43 percent ) or can get things done ( 48 percent . )
• A total of 67 percent of adults said they thought COVID-19 would “ significantly disrupt ” Americans ’ s ability to vote in November ’ s elections , according to a new Pew Research survey .
According to FiveThirtyEight ’ s presidential approval tracker , 42.9 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is doing as president , while 52.4 percent disapprove ( a net approval rating of -9.5 points ) .
At this time last week , 43.4 percent approved and 52.6 percent disapproved ( for a net approval rating of -9.2 points ) .
One month ago , Trump had an approval rating of 45.8 percent and a disapproval rating of 49.7 percent , for a net approval rating of -3.9 points .
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot , Democrats currently lead by 7.7 percentage points ( 48.0 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ago , Democrats led Republicans by 7.6 points ( 48.1 percent to 40.5 percent ) .
At this time last month , voters preferred Democrats by 7.8 points ( 48.9 percent to 41.2 percent ) .

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
Poll(s) of the week
Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, leads President Trump in most national polls, and surveys conducted even this far out have tended to roughly resemble the eventual general election results, as FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley explained in an article this week. Of course, national polls measure the national popular vote, which is really only indirectly related to who will win the White House — Democrats have won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College in two of the last seven elections and could do so again in 2020. U.S. presidential elections are really a contest of states.
So what’s going on in the states? We thought it was worth taking a look at that question now, as April featured some high-quality, state-level polling (though not a ton of it ). It also happened to be the month when the general election came into sharper focus: It’s now clear who the Democratic nominee will be and that the novel coronavirus pandemic will be a major part of the campaign.
Here’s what we learned looking at every state-level poll conducted in April:
Biden’s leads narrowly in several key states
Several polling firms released surveys of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in April. Former President Barack Obama carried all four states in 2012. Trump flipped all four in 2016 (as well as Ohio and Iowa, neither of which has much recent polling.) And Biden appears to lead in all four now. (North Carolina, which has gone Republican in both of the last two cycles, was also polled pretty often in April, with Trump and Biden looking basically tied there.)
The presidential race in key states according to early polls Average margin in states where at least 3 polls were conducted in April State Number of polls Biden Trump Average Margin North Carolina 5 47% 46% D+1.0 Wisconsin 4 48 44 D+3.3 Florida 4 47 43 D+3.5 Pennsylvania 5 48 43 D+5.4 Michigan 8 49 43 D+6.1 U.S. 50 48 42 D+6.4 Includes polls conducted partly in March 2020 but finished in April. Polls that released results among multiple populations were included only once, counting the narrowest sample — registered voters over adults, and likely voters over registered voters. Source: Polls
This data highlights a few things. First, at least at the moment, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are very close to the national tipping point — so they’re likely to be among the more determinative states this November. Second, the former vice president’s lead nationally is big enough to carry these states. This is important — if Biden wins all of the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016 plus any combination of three of these four, he would be elected president.
But crucially, Biden’s margins in these states are slightly smaller than his advantage in national polls. It’s worth thinking about the race at the state level in these relative terms because there’s still so much time for things to shift. If Biden’s lead nationally narrowed to 2 to 3 percentage points, these states would likely be much closer, if not lean toward Trump. Also, as The New York Times’ Nate Cohn wrote recently, Trump is likely to look stronger when pollsters start limiting their results to “likely voters.” Most of the April surveys in these four states were conducted among registered voters or all adults, two groups that include some people who may not vote in November.
In other words, this data suggests Trump may have an Electoral College advantage again — he could lose the popular vote and win the election. Of course, this data also suggests that if Biden is winning overall by a margin similar to his advantage now, Trump’s potential Electoral College edge really won’t matter.
Biden polling particularly strong in Michigan and Pennsylvania
It’s not worth making too much of small differences among states — we don’t have a lot of polling and things will likely shift between now and November anyway. But it seems pretty clear Biden is doing better in Michigan and Pennsylvania than Florida and Wisconsin. Fox News, Ipsos and Public Policy Polling all recently polled several swing states. All three found Biden had a larger lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania than in other swing states they surveyed (Florida for Fox, North Carolina and Wisconsin for PPP, Wisconsin for Ipsos.)
The race is unclear in other Trump 2016 states
Outside of the five states I discussed above, a recent poll of Arizona was great for the former vice president, while he wasn’t looking as strong in a survey of Georgia. But I would be very cautious about states in which we only have one or two recent polls. So please keep that caveat in mind, but here are all the states for which we got polls in April — even the ones with just one poll:
Polls of early states show Biden leading Average margin in states where at least 1 poll was conducted in April State Number of polls Biden Trump Average Margin Utah 1 32% 51% R+19.0 Indiana 1 39 52 R+13.0 Mississippi 1 38 49 R+11.0 Georgia 1 46 48 R+2.0 Texas 2 46 48 R+2.0 Ohio 1 45 44 D+0.7 North Carolina 5 47 46 D+1.0 Wisconsin 4 48 44 D+3.3 Florida 4 47 43 D+3.5 Pennsylvania 5 48 43 D+5.4 Michigan 8 49 43 D+6.1 U.S. 50 48 42 D+6.4 New Hampshire 1 50 42 D+8.0 Arizona 1 52 43 D+9.0 Virginia 1 51 41 D+10.0 New Mexico 1 52 40 D+12.0 Washington 1 52 39 D+13.0 Connecticut 1 47 34 D+13.2 New Jersey 1 54 38 D+16.0 New York 1 65 29 D+36.0 Includes polls conducted partly in March but finished in April. Polls that released results among multiple populations were included only once, counting the narrowest sample — registered voters over adults, and likely voters over registered voters. Source: Polls
I do think Biden could win Arizona, but that’s based more on Democrats’ winning a U.S. Senate race there in 2018 than the recent OH Predictive Insights survey that showed Biden with a 9-point lead in the state.
It’s also unclear in Clinton 2016 states
It’s likely that Trump and Republicans will target Maine, Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire in particular — looking for an upset in states Democrats could overlook because they might assume Biden won’t lose where Clinton won four years ago. Trump narrowly lost in those four states in 2016. Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire are states in which a disproportionately high percentage of the electorate is non-Hispanic white voters without college degrees, an electoral bloc in which the president was especially strong in 2016 and could make even more gains in 2020.
But we just need more polling to get a sense for how these states are shaping up relative to the country overall. All we have is one recent poll from any of these four states — a survey showing the former vice president ahead by 8 points in New Hampshire. Biden’s prospects would be brighter if he ends up outperforming Clinton among non-college whites, making these states less Republican-leaning relative to the country than they were in 2016.
Other polling bites
Trump approval
According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 42.9 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.4 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -9.5 points). At this time last week, 43.4 percent approved and 52.6 percent disapproved (for a net approval rating of -9.2 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 45.8 percent and a disapproval rating of 49.7 percent, for a net approval rating of -3.9 points.
Generic ballot
In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.7 percentage points (48.0 percent to 40.3 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7.6 points (48.1 percent to 40.5 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 7.8 points (48.9 percent to 41.2 percent).


fivethirtyeight--2020-05-01--Tara Reade’s Allegations Put Establishment Democrats In A Bind: Believe Women Or Back The Nominee

Editor ’ s note : This article contains a detailed description of the sexual assault Tara Reade says Joe Biden committed against her .
Tara Reade says that in 1993 , then-Sen. Joe Biden pressed her up against a wall in the United States Senate , kissed her neck and hair , slid his hand under her blouse , then used his knee to spread her legs and penetrated her with his fingers .
Biden denied the allegations Friday : “ I ’ m saying unequivocally it never , never happened.
” The country has spent four years in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and accountability .
Every high-profile case has been argued on its own terms , and Biden ’ s will be no different .
But past instances of sexual assault allegations in politics have shown that it ’ s party officials who help decide whether a politician weathers the storm .
If precedent tells us anything , it ’ s that establishment Democrats will help determine whether Reade ’ s account has any impact on Biden ’ s campaign .
In politics , believing women is complicated .
Biden isn ’ t a stranger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ women uncomfortable .
Last year , a number of women alleged that he invaded their personal space in ways that felt inappropriate , if not sexual — though some felt his touching was indeed sexual .
Reade was among those who came forward with an account , though at the time she did not relate her allegation that Biden had pressed her against the wall .
The public reaction to the initial allegations was muted .
A Morning Consult/Politico poll of Democratic voters found that half of respondents said the allegations would have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decide to support Biden , and 32 percent of Democrats said that he hadn ’ t behaved inappropriately at all .
The Hill and HarrisX ran a poll around the same time that found that 62 percent of Democrats said the allegations shouldn ’ t preclude his presidential ambitions .
Of course , Reade ’ s new allegations are quite different from the ones Biden faced last year .
Vaginal penetration falls under the Justice Department ’ s definition of rape .
In many ways , Biden is in a precarious political position @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has squared itself firmly behind the “ believe women ” ethos of the MeToo movement , and Democratic voters have consistently showed less tolerance for sexual misconduct and assault .
A Pew Research Center survey from 2018 found that 62 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents thought that men getting away with sexual harassment was a major problem and 60 percent said the same about women not being believed when they lodge harassment claims .
Those numbers were about double the share of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who said those issues were major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gap when Christine Blasey Ford and others accused Justice Brett Kavanaugh of past sexual misconduct .
An NPR/Ipsos survey conducted in October 2018 , a month after Kavanaugh ’ s confirmation hearings , found 75 percent of Republicans thought the MeToo movement had gone too far , but only 21 percent of Democrats thought so .
The question , of course , is whether numbers like those will hold when a Democrat is involved .
For example , a Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted shortly after the Kavanaugh hearings found that 76 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be accused unfairly of sexual assault .
Only 34 percent of Democrats felt the same .
Theoretically , that could mean trouble for Biden .
But Democrats ’ principled stance on sexual misconduct can soften a little — or at least get more complicated — when it comes to members of their own party .
Sen. Al Franken resigned in 2017 after Leeann Tweeden alleged he forcibly kissed her during a USO tour and a photo appeared to show him groping her while she slept .
In November of 2017 , 59 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Consult/Politico poll said elected officials — generically — should resign if faced with credible allegations of misconduct .
But only 49 percent of Democrats in the same survey were in favor of Franken , specifically , resigning .
A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll of Minnesotans from the same time found 34 percent of Democrats said he should remain in office , 14 percent thought he should resign and 46 percent thought he should wait for the results of an ethics investigation .
But while Democratic constituents waffled , Democratic elected officials were more decisive .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Franken ’ s Democratic Senate colleagues , led by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand , demanded he resign .
Franken did so a day later , his fate sealed by his colleagues ’ loss of confidence .
Franken ’ s case shows that what can truly sound the death knell of a politician ’ s run is the loss of support from party insiders ; the condemnation of one ’ s peers is a damning thing in this line of work .
After the “ Access Hollywood ” tape revealed that Donald Trump had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , some Republicans , including Speaker of the House Paul Ryan , abandoned him .
But he maintained the backing of powerful allies like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and , luckily for Trump , his scandal broke close enough to Election Day that Republicans had few viable choices to replace him .
So far , Democrats seem to be following a similar playbook , perhaps because Biden is running against Trump .
The president has been accused of sexual assault — including rape — by 17 women .
Even if the accusations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be willing to rationalize voting for him if they perceive him as the lesser of two evils .
Democratic officials have closed ranks around Biden even as Reade ’ s allegations have received further attention and reporting .
When asked about Reade ’ s allegations , Gillibrand said , “ I support Vice President Biden.
” The political cover that Biden already built for himself by declaring that he would choose a female vice president — a consolation prize of sorts for voters disappointed by their white , male de facto nominee — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Reade ’ s allegations .
Potential vice presidential picks have , so far , not come out against Biden .
Sen. Amy Klobuchar said , “ I think this case has been investigated , ” and talked about Biden ’ s record on helping victims of domestic abuse .
Another senator in the vice presidential running , Kamala Harris , said Reade “ has a right to tell her story ” and that she could “ only speak to the Joe Biden I know .
He ’ s been a lifelong fighter , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Stacey Abrams , another vice presidential contender , said , “ I know Joe Biden , and I think he ’ s telling the truth and this did not happen.
” Michigan Gov .
Gretchen Whitmer , herself a survivor of rape and another name that has been batted about in vice presidential speculation , was slightly more circumspect when asked about Reade : “ Well , I think women should be able to tell their stories .
I think that it is important that these allegations are vetted , from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that , you know , it is something that no one takes lightly , ” Whitmer said .
“ But it is also something that is , you know , personal .
And so it ’ s hard to give you greater insight than that , not knowing more about the situation.
” The Biden campaign sent out talking points this week for surrogates who will need to address the Reade question .
“ Here ’ s the bottom line : Vice President Joe Biden has spent over 40 years in public life @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 7 Senate campaigns , 2 previous presidential runs , two vice presidential campaigns , and 8 years in the White House .
There has never been a complaint , allegation , hint or rumor of any impropriety or inappropriate conduct like this regarding him – ever.
” The plan for now , it would appear , is to deny , deny , deny and encourage Democratic officials to do the same .
In the political world , that calculus isn ’ t half bad and has worked to great effect : President Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to deny all 17 assault claims against him .

Editor’s note: This article contains a detailed description of the sexual assault Tara Reade says Joe Biden committed against her.
Tara Reade says that in 1993, then-Sen. Joe Biden pressed her up against a wall in the United States Senate, kissed her neck and hair, slid his hand under her blouse, then used his knee to spread her legs and penetrated her with his fingers. Biden denied the allegations Friday: “I’m saying unequivocally it never, never happened.”
The country has spent four years in a messy reckoning over sexual assault, harassment and accountability. Every high-profile case has been argued on its own terms, and Biden’s will be no different. But past instances of sexual assault allegations in politics have shown that it’s party officials who help decide whether a politician weathers the storm. If precedent tells us anything, it’s that establishment Democrats will help determine whether Reade’s account has any impact on Biden’s campaign. In politics, believing women is complicated.
Biden isn’t a stranger to accusations that he’s made women uncomfortable. Last year, a number of women alleged that he invaded their personal space in ways that felt inappropriate, if not sexual — though some felt his touching was indeed sexual. Reade was among those who came forward with an account, though at the time she did not relate her allegation that Biden had pressed her against the wall.
The public reaction to the initial allegations was muted. A Morning Consult/Politico poll of Democratic voters found that half of respondents said the allegations would have no bearing on whether they’d decide to support Biden, and 32 percent of Democrats said that he hadn’t behaved inappropriately at all. The Hill and HarrisX ran a poll around the same time that found that 62 percent of Democrats said the allegations shouldn’t preclude his presidential ambitions.
Of course, Reade’s new allegations are quite different from the ones Biden faced last year. Vaginal penetration falls under the Justice Department’s definition of rape.
In many ways, Biden is in a precarious political position with his Democratic base. The party has squared itself firmly behind the “believe women” ethos of the MeToo movement, and Democratic voters have consistently showed less tolerance for sexual misconduct and assault. A Pew Research Center survey from 2018 found that 62 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents thought that men getting away with sexual harassment was a major problem and 60 percent said the same about women not being believed when they lodge harassment claims. Those numbers were about double the share of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who said those issues were major problems.
There was a similar partisan gap when Christine Blasey Ford and others accused Justice Brett Kavanaugh of past sexual misconduct. An NPR/Ipsos survey conducted in October 2018, a month after Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings, found 75 percent of Republicans thought the MeToo movement had gone too far, but only 21 percent of Democrats thought so.
The question, of course, is whether numbers like those will hold when a Democrat is involved. For example, a Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted shortly after the Kavanaugh hearings found that 76 percent of Republicans were concerned that men could be accused unfairly of sexual assault. Only 34 percent of Democrats felt the same. Theoretically, that could mean trouble for Biden.
But Democrats’ principled stance on sexual misconduct can soften a little — or at least get more complicated — when it comes to members of their own party. Sen. Al Franken resigned in 2017 after Leeann Tweeden alleged he forcibly kissed her during a USO tour and a photo appeared to show him groping her while she slept. In November of 2017, 59 percent of Democratic survey respondents in a Morning Consult/Politico poll said elected officials — generically — should resign if faced with credible allegations of misconduct. But only 49 percent of Democrats in the same survey were in favor of Franken, specifically, resigning. A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll of Minnesotans from the same time found 34 percent of Democrats said he should remain in office, 14 percent thought he should resign and 46 percent thought he should wait for the results of an ethics investigation.
But while Democratic constituents waffled, Democratic elected officials were more decisive. In early December 2017, a group of Franken’s Democratic Senate colleagues, led by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, demanded he resign. Franken did so a day later, his fate sealed by his colleagues’ loss of confidence.
Franken’s case shows that what can truly sound the death knell of a politician’s run is the loss of support from party insiders; the condemnation of one’s peers is a damning thing in this line of work. After the “Access Hollywood” tape revealed that Donald Trump had bragged about making unwanted advances on women, some Republicans, including Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, abandoned him. But he maintained the backing of powerful allies like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and, luckily for Trump, his scandal broke close enough to Election Day that Republicans had few viable choices to replace him.
So far, Democrats seem to be following a similar playbook, perhaps because Biden is running against Trump. The president has been accused of sexual assault — including rape — by 17 women. Even if the accusations against Biden are true, Democrats might be willing to rationalize voting for him if they perceive him as the lesser of two evils.
Democratic officials have closed ranks around Biden even as Reade’s allegations have received further attention and reporting. When asked about Reade’s allegations, Gillibrand said, “I support Vice President Biden.”
The political cover that Biden already built for himself by declaring that he would choose a female vice president — a consolation prize of sorts for voters disappointed by their white, male de facto nominee — is paying off as his campaign fights Reade’s allegations. Potential vice presidential picks have, so far, not come out against Biden. Sen. Amy Klobuchar said, “I think this case has been investigated,” and talked about Biden’s record on helping victims of domestic abuse. Another senator in the vice presidential running, Kamala Harris, said Reade “has a right to tell her story” and that she could “only speak to the Joe Biden I know. He’s been a lifelong fighter, in terms of stopping violence against women.” Stacey Abrams, another vice presidential contender, said, “I know Joe Biden, and I think he’s telling the truth and this did not happen.” Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, herself a survivor of rape and another name that has been batted about in vice presidential speculation, was slightly more circumspect when asked about Reade: “Well, I think women should be able to tell their stories. I think that it is important that these allegations are vetted, from the media to beyond. And I think that, you know, it is something that no one takes lightly,” Whitmer said. “But it is also something that is, you know, personal. And so it’s hard to give you greater insight than that, not knowing more about the situation.”
The Biden campaign sent out talking points this week for surrogates who will need to address the Reade question. “Here’s the bottom line: Vice President Joe Biden has spent over 40 years in public life: 36 years in the Senate; 7 Senate campaigns, 2 previous presidential runs, two vice presidential campaigns, and 8 years in the White House. There has never been a complaint, allegation, hint or rumor of any impropriety or inappropriate conduct like this regarding him – ever.”
The plan for now, it would appear, is to deny, deny, deny and encourage Democratic officials to do the same. In the political world, that calculus isn’t half bad and has worked to great effect: President Trump, it should be noted, continues to deny all 17 assault claims against him.