fivethirtyeight--2020-03-09--Election Preview: Biden Is A Big Favorite In Missouri And Mississippi, But The Margins Matter

Former Vice President Joe Biden may currently be favored in our forecast to win a majority of pledged delegates in the Democratic primary , but the March 10 elections will help determine just how big a favorite Biden really is — and whether Sen. Bernie Sanders can recover and remain competitive .
In Mississippi and Missouri , two of the six contests happening on Tuesday , Biden is a strong favorite to win statewide , and we want to take a look at what FiveThirtyEight ’ s forecast says at the district level .
But a warning before we move @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polling in these states — just one poll from Mississippi , in fact — and recent primary polling has been pretty volatile , so the margin between the two candidates may be quite different from what the model thinks right now .
Let ’ s start with Missouri , which is worth 68 pledged delegates .
Our forecast gives Biden an 11 in 12 ( 92 percent ) chance of victory , with an average forecasted vote share of 58 percent statewide .
Sanders has just a 1 in 12 ( 8 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the vote , on average .
The statewide vote will determine how 24 of Missouri ’ s pledged delegates are allocated , while the remaining 44 pledged delegates will be allocated based on how Missouri ’ s eight congressional districts vote .
Both Biden and Sanders are on track to clear the 15 percent threshold necessary to win delegates in each district , but Biden is on track to outpace Sanders in every single district — at times by more than a 30-point margin .
Just like in other states , Biden ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a large share of African American voters .
As such , his top district is the 1st Congressional District , which encompasses the St. Louis area and is nearly 50 percent black .
The 1st is also the most delegate-rich district in Missouri , with eight up for grabs .
( No other district has more than six . )
Biden ’ s second-best seat is the only other district in Missouri with a large black population : the 5th Congressional District based in Kansas City , which is about 20 percent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , on the other hand , are ones that have few black voters and more white voters — which Missouri has plenty of .
But one reason he isn ’ t projected to do better in some of Missouri ’ s whiter districts is because he hasn ’ t performed as well among white voters without a college degree in this year ’ s contests as he did in 2016 .
Biden has also cut into some of Sanders ’ s advantages among these voters , performing fairly well so far among whites @ @ @ @ @ @ @ District in suburban St. Louis looks to be Sanders ’ s strongest district , as his support has held up best in areas with a highly educated , mostly white electorate .
And that very much describes the 2nd , which is almost 90 percent white and is easily the most well-educated district in the state — about half of its adult population has a college degree .
Even still , Sanders trails by 8 points there .
Things aren ’ t any better for Sanders in Mississippi .
Our forecast suggests that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Magnolia State , giving him a 99 in 100 shot at victory .
That means Sanders has just a 1 in 100 shot of winning .
In terms of projected vote share , Biden wins an average of 65 percent of the vote statewide and Sanders 25 percent .
Thirteen of Mississippi ’ s 36 pledged delegates to the national convention in July are allocated via the statewide total , while the remaining 23 delegates are allocated via its four congressional districts .
And according to our average forecasted vote share in each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least 30 points everywhere , so he stands to collect a large share of the state ’ s district-level delegates , too .
Biden ’ s strength here is in part a product of the state ’ s huge share of African American voters — 71 percent of the 2016 Democratic primary electorate was black , according to the exit poll .
This advantage is most evident in Mississippi ’ s sole Democratic-leaning seat , the 2nd Congressional District , which is nearly two-thirds black and has nine delegates up for grabs .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ five or fewer delegates . )
As such , there ’ s little good news for Sanders in Mississippi .
But if he can do well elsewhere on March 10 — particularly in Michigan and Washington — he could still have a fighting chance for the nomination , which means any delegates he can squeeze out of Mississippi could still be important down the road .
Sanders won only about 17 percent of the vote in Mississippi during the 2016 primary against Hillary Clinton , so if he meets ( or exceeds ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the vote statewide , that would mark a sizable improvement .
Missouri and Mississippi look likely to be good states for Biden on Tuesday , but the margins will matter for the delegate race .
Because we don ’ t have much polling to go on in these states , we ’ re relying a fair amount on demographic patterns to get a read on the race .
It ’ s worth remembering that Sanders fought Clinton to basically a draw in Missouri in 2016 , so we shouldn ’ t completely write @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be pivotal in a Sanders comeback narrative , but if he overperforms here and elsewhere on Tuesday , they could matter in the race for delegates .

Former Vice President Joe Biden may currently be favored in our forecast to win a majority of pledged delegates in the Democratic primary, but the March 10 elections will help determine just how big a favorite Biden really is — and whether Sen. Bernie Sanders can recover and remain competitive.
In Mississippi and Missouri, two of the six contests happening on Tuesday, Biden is a strong favorite to win statewide, and we want to take a look at what FiveThirtyEight’s forecast says at the district level. But a warning before we move ahead: We have limited post-Super Tuesday polling in these states — just one poll from Mississippi, in fact — and recent primary polling has been pretty volatile, so the margin between the two candidates may be quite different from what the model thinks right now.
Let’s start with Missouri, which is worth 68 pledged delegates. Our forecast gives Biden an 11 in 12 (92 percent) chance of victory, with an average forecasted vote share of 58 percent statewide. Sanders has just a 1 in 12 (8 percent) shot, winning 39 percent of the vote, on average.
The statewide vote will determine how 24 of Missouri’s pledged delegates are allocated, while the remaining 44 pledged delegates will be allocated based on how Missouri’s eight congressional districts vote. Both Biden and Sanders are on track to clear the 15 percent threshold necessary to win delegates in each district, but Biden is on track to outpace Sanders in every single district — at times by more than a 30-point margin.
Biden is favored across Missouri Average forecasted vote share for the top two Democratic presidential candidates in Missouri congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9 a.m. on March 9 District Biden Sanders MO-01 65% 32% MO-02 52 44 MO-03 54 42 MO-04 56 40 MO-05 59 38 MO-06 55 42 MO-07 54 43 MO-08 57 40 State 58 39
Just like in other states, Biden’s strongest districts in Missouri are ones with a large share of African American voters. As such, his top district is the 1st Congressional District, which encompasses the St. Louis area and is nearly 50 percent black. The 1st is also the most delegate-rich district in Missouri, with eight up for grabs. (No other district has more than six.) Biden’s second-best seat is the only other district in Missouri with a large black population: the 5th Congressional District based in Kansas City, which is about 20 percent black.
Sanders’s best districts, on the other hand, are ones that have few black voters and more white voters — which Missouri has plenty of. But one reason he isn’t projected to do better in some of Missouri’s whiter districts is because he hasn’t performed as well among white voters without a college degree in this year’s contests as he did in 2016. Biden has also cut into some of Sanders’s advantages among these voters, performing fairly well so far among whites in the South.
The 2nd Congressional District in suburban St. Louis looks to be Sanders’s strongest district, as his support has held up best in areas with a highly educated, mostly white electorate. And that very much describes the 2nd, which is almost 90 percent white and is easily the most well-educated district in the state — about half of its adult population has a college degree. Even still, Sanders trails by 8 points there.
Things aren’t any better for Sanders in Mississippi. Our forecast suggests that Biden is a near-lock to win the Magnolia State, giving him a 99 in 100 shot at victory. That means Sanders has just a 1 in 100 shot of winning. In terms of projected vote share, Biden wins an average of 65 percent of the vote statewide and Sanders 25 percent.
Thirteen of Mississippi’s 36 pledged delegates to the national convention in July are allocated via the statewide total, while the remaining 23 delegates are allocated via its four congressional districts. And according to our average forecasted vote share in each district, Biden leads Sanders by at least 30 points everywhere, so he stands to collect a large share of the state’s district-level delegates, too.
Biden has a lock on Mississippi Average forecasted vote share for the top two Democratic presidential candidates in Mississippi congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9 a.m. on March 9 District Biden Sanders MS-01 62% 28% MS-02 69 21 MS-03 64 26 MS-04 61 29 State 65 25
Biden’s strength here is in part a product of the state’s huge share of African American voters — 71 percent of the 2016 Democratic primary electorate was black, according to the exit poll. This advantage is most evident in Mississippi’s sole Democratic-leaning seat, the 2nd Congressional District, which is nearly two-thirds black and has nine delegates up for grabs. (All the other districts are worth five or fewer delegates.)
As such, there’s little good news for Sanders in Mississippi. But if he can do well elsewhere on March 10 — particularly in Michigan and Washington — he could still have a fighting chance for the nomination, which means any delegates he can squeeze out of Mississippi could still be important down the road. Sanders won only about 17 percent of the vote in Mississippi during the 2016 primary against Hillary Clinton, so if he meets (or exceeds) his forecasted average of 25 percent of the vote statewide, that would mark a sizable improvement.
Missouri and Mississippi look likely to be good states for Biden on Tuesday, but the margins will matter for the delegate race. Because we don’t have much polling to go on in these states, we’re relying a fair amount on demographic patterns to get a read on the race. It’s worth remembering that Sanders fought Clinton to basically a draw in Missouri in 2016, so we shouldn’t completely write him off. These states may not be pivotal in a Sanders comeback narrative, but if he overperforms here and elsewhere on Tuesday, they could matter in the race for delegates.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-09--Election Preview: Sanders Looks Strongest In Washington, Idaho And North Dakota — But The Races Are

Election Preview: Sanders Looks Strongest In Washington, Idaho And North Dakota — But The Races Are Tight

This Tuesday may not be as “ super ” as some , but we ’ ll still get Democratic primary results from six states worth 352 pledged delegates .
We ’ ve already walked you through what the FiveThirtyEight forecast says in Michigan , where Sen. Bernie Sanders hopes to defy the odds once again .
Now let ’ s take a tour of the three Western states that could wind up as the closest contests of the day .
Demographically , Washington should be one of Sanders ’ s best remaining states , but it is actually a pure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Sanders and Biden each has a 1 in 2 ( 50 percent ) chance to win the Evergreen State .
It ’ s an extremely close race in terms of vote share , too : Sanders and Biden are each expected to receive 42 percent of the statewide vote , on average .
( Even though New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren have dropped out , we still expect them to get 4 percent of the vote each as Washington is a vote-by-mail state , and lots of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Indeed , as of March 3 — before either dropped out — almost 1 million ballots had already been returned . )
Thirty-one of Washington ’ s 89 pledged delegates are awarded based on those statewide results , while the remaining 58 hinge on the results in the state ’ s 10 congressional districts .
However , we ’ re forecasting those results to hew closely to the statewide numbers , which means Sanders and Biden are likely to split the district-level delegates just as they will the statewide ones .
Biden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ settled 9th District , which stretches from Bellevue and downtown Seattle in the north to Tacoma in the south .
It is Washington ’ s lone majority-minority district , featuring the state ’ s largest black population ( 11 percent of the district ) and Asian population ( 23 percent ) .
We are also forecasting Biden to win the 6th District , which covers the Olympic and Kitsap peninsulas .
It ’ s a relatively white , working-class district with a traditionally timber-based economy — not dissimilar to Maine ’ s 2nd @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s stronger of the two districts in that state .
Meanwhile , we expect Sanders ’ s best district to be the 4th District , a predominantly rural district in Central Washington .
More than 38 percent of its population is Latino , a voting bloc with which Sanders has excelled so far this year .
It and the 3rd District ( which we also forecast Sanders to carry on Tuesday ) were also Sanders ’ s two best districts in Washington in the state ’ s 2016 caucuses .
Finally , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a whopping 11 pledged delegates — a huge haul for just one congressional district .
We think Sanders has a slight edge over Biden in this cosmopolitan , white-collar district in the heart of Seattle .
But as with all these districts , the final results will probably be close enough to mean the two candidates get about the same number of delegates .
A note of caution : If you watch Washington report results live on Tuesday night , don ’ t be surprised if the initial returns look different from our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won ’ t get final results in Washington for several days , as late-arriving mail ballots are added to the election-night tallies .
Meanwhile , our forecast gives Biden a 3 in 5 ( 57 percent ) chance of carrying Idaho and Sanders a 2 in 5 ( 43 percent ) chance .
On average , we forecast Biden to get 47 percent and Sanders 44 percent of the statewide vote , which will determine the allocation of seven pledged delegates .
Seven more will come out of the state ’ s 2nd @ @ @ @ @ @ @ awarded based on the results in the 1st Congressional District .
But as was the case in Washington , we anticipate that the district-level results will largely mirror the statewide results .
The 2nd District , which covers eastern Idaho but also reaches into the state capital of Boise , is a tad more college-educated and less white than the 1st District , which covers western Idaho and the Panhandle .
But in the big picture , Idaho is a pretty uniform state , and we ’ re expecting Biden and Sanders to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well .
Finally , North Dakota is shaping up to be a close race as well , but our forecast has identified a ( slight ) front-runner .
We give Biden a 3 in 5 ( 63 percent ) chance of winning North Dakota , while Sanders has a 2 in 5 ( 37 percent ) shot .
In the average model run , 48 percent of the state opts for Biden , while 41 percent chooses Sanders .
Because North Dakota has just one congressional district , all 14 of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those statewide results .
It would be hard to track the results by region anyway , however .
North Dakota is the first state this year to hold a party-run ( as opposed to state-run ) primary , known locally as “ firehouse caucuses.
” Instead of an all-day election at voters ’ normal precincts , voting in North Dakota will be open only between noon and 8 p.m. Eastern at just 14 polling places across the state .
( Despite the name , none is a firehouse , nor do voters have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a traditional caucus . )
And no matter where they live in the state , voters can choose to vote at any location .
Given how close these three states are , if Sanders is going to flex the muscle necessary to make a national comeback , it will probably start by winning these three contests .
However , unfortunately for him , Idaho and North Dakota are worth precious few delegates — and even Washington seems likely to be a delegate wash unless Sanders defeats Biden decisively there .
Still , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and turns , so it ’ s certainly possible it continues to surprise us .

This Tuesday may not be as “super” as some, but we’ll still get Democratic primary results from six states worth 352 pledged delegates. We’ve already walked you through what the FiveThirtyEight forecast says in Michigan, where Sen. Bernie Sanders hopes to defy the odds once again. Now let’s take a tour of the three Western states that could wind up as the closest contests of the day.
Demographically, Washington should be one of Sanders’s best remaining states, but it is actually a pure toss-up. According to our primary forecast, Sanders and Biden each has a 1 in 2 (50 percent) chance to win the Evergreen State. It’s an extremely close race in terms of vote share, too: Sanders and Biden are each expected to receive 42 percent of the statewide vote, on average. (Even though New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren have dropped out, we still expect them to get 4 percent of the vote each as Washington is a vote-by-mail state, and lots of votes were cast before they dropped out. Indeed, as of March 3 — before either dropped out — almost 1 million ballots had already been returned.)
Thirty-one of Washington’s 89 pledged delegates are awarded based on those statewide results, while the remaining 58 hinge on the results in the state’s 10 congressional districts. However, we’re forecasting those results to hew closely to the statewide numbers, which means Sanders and Biden are likely to split the district-level delegates just as they will the statewide ones.
A close race across Washington Average forecasted vote share for the top two Democratic presidential candidates in Washington congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 11:20 a.m. on March 9 District Sanders Biden WA-01 43% 41% WA-02 42 42 WA-03 43 42 WA-04 43 42 WA-05 42 43 WA-06 41 43 WA-07 43 42 WA-08 42 42 WA-09 41 44 WA-10 42 43 State 42 42
Biden figures to do best in the thickly settled 9th District, which stretches from Bellevue and downtown Seattle in the north to Tacoma in the south. It is Washington’s lone majority-minority district, featuring the state’s largest black population (11 percent of the district) and Asian population (23 percent). We are also forecasting Biden to win the 6th District, which covers the Olympic and Kitsap peninsulas. It’s a relatively white, working-class district with a traditionally timber-based economy — not dissimilar to Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which was Biden’s stronger of the two districts in that state.
Meanwhile, we expect Sanders’s best district to be the 4th District, a predominantly rural district in Central Washington. More than 38 percent of its population is Latino, a voting bloc with which Sanders has excelled so far this year. It and the 3rd District (which we also forecast Sanders to carry on Tuesday) were also Sanders’s two best districts in Washington in the state’s 2016 caucuses.
Finally, the 7th District is important for being worth a whopping 11 pledged delegates — a huge haul for just one congressional district. We think Sanders has a slight edge over Biden in this cosmopolitan, white-collar district in the heart of Seattle. But as with all these districts, the final results will probably be close enough to mean the two candidates get about the same number of delegates.
A note of caution: If you watch Washington report results live on Tuesday night, don’t be surprised if the initial returns look different from our forecasts. Because of vote-by-mail, we won’t get final results in Washington for several days, as late-arriving mail ballots are added to the election-night tallies.
Meanwhile, our forecast gives Biden a 3 in 5 (57 percent) chance of carrying Idaho and Sanders a 2 in 5 (43 percent) chance. On average, we forecast Biden to get 47 percent and Sanders 44 percent of the statewide vote, which will determine the allocation of seven pledged delegates. Seven more will come out of the state’s 2nd Congressional District, while six will be awarded based on the results in the 1st Congressional District. But as was the case in Washington, we anticipate that the district-level results will largely mirror the statewide results.
Both of Idaho’s districts are close Average forecasted vote share for the top two Democratic presidential candidates in Idaho congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 11:20 a.m. on March 9 District Biden Sanders ID-01 47% 44% ID-02 47 44 State 47 44
The 2nd District, which covers eastern Idaho but also reaches into the state capital of Boise, is a tad more college-educated and less white than the 1st District, which covers western Idaho and the Panhandle. But in the big picture, Idaho is a pretty uniform state, and we’re expecting Biden and Sanders to be closely competitive in each individual district as well.
Finally, North Dakota is shaping up to be a close race as well, but our forecast has identified a (slight) front-runner. We give Biden a 3 in 5 (63 percent) chance of winning North Dakota, while Sanders has a 2 in 5 (37 percent) shot. In the average model run, 48 percent of the state opts for Biden, while 41 percent chooses Sanders.
Because North Dakota has just one congressional district, all 14 of its pledged delegates will be awarded based on those statewide results. It would be hard to track the results by region anyway, however. North Dakota is the first state this year to hold a party-run (as opposed to state-run) primary, known locally as “firehouse caucuses.” Instead of an all-day election at voters’ normal precincts, voting in North Dakota will be open only between noon and 8 p.m. Eastern at just 14 polling places across the state. (Despite the name, none is a firehouse, nor do voters have to stick around to realign like in a traditional caucus.) And no matter where they live in the state, voters can choose to vote at any location.
Given how close these three states are, if Sanders is going to flex the muscle necessary to make a national comeback, it will probably start by winning these three contests. However, unfortunately for him, Idaho and North Dakota are worth precious few delegates — and even Washington seems likely to be a delegate wash unless Sanders defeats Biden decisively there. Still, it’s been a primary of twists and turns, so it’s certainly possible it continues to surprise us.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-09--A Teen ‘Influencer’ On What It Was Like To Work For The Bloomberg Campaign

An 18-year-old high school student in the Bay Area was playing Assassin — a kind of long-term , citywide game of tag using Nerf guns — when he noticed the signs : “ Vote Mike Bloomberg.
” “ I thought to myself , ‘ Why is Bloomberg in a pro-Sanders district ?
’ ” said James , who asked us not to use his real name because he is not authorized to discuss his campaign work .
He pulled his car into the parking lot of the local campaign office and walked inside .
A week later , he was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the campaign .
Throughout Bloomberg ’ s 101-day campaign for president , the former New York mayor spent more than $ 500 million .
Part of that money was spent paying a campaign outreach firm , Grindstone Field Solutions , to hire hundreds of “ deputy field organizers ” ( DFO ) to campaign through phone calls , texts and social media posts , many of them teenagers like James .
The money was good : On average , James said he did about 10 hours of work a week , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do any work at all .
But he got paid $ 83 per day regardless of how much work he did , which he said surprised him .
“ I also work as a tutor and I get paid minimum wage , so I ’ m used to long hours and low pay , ” he said .
“ I was severely overpaid for what I actually did .
Maybe I just don ’ t understand how adult work culture works.
” FiveThirtyEight reached out to the Bloomberg campaign and Grindstone to discuss @ @ @ @ @ @ @ receive a response .
Hiring staff to do outreach is standard behavior for any political campaign , but James ’ s experience and documents he shared with FiveThirtyEight show how Bloomberg ’ s effort was unique .
Other campaigns rely on volunteers and paid staff to do outreach over many months , tapping into their personal network to build relationships , according to Joshua Darr , a FiveThirtyEight contributor and political scientist .
“ Bloomberg didn ’ t really have that option because he got in so late , ” Darr said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the money to get paid staffers to make these contacts , but he didn ’ t have the time really to do anything else.
” The Bloomberg campaign ’ s approach — hiring staffers to meet outreach quotas — is a more old-fashioned strategy , Darr said , but it only really works if there is strict accountability and oversight , which James said there was not .
“ I actually did work but I think I could have , honestly , done no work and still gotten paid for this campaign , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no way of tracking .
There was no enforcement system .
They said , ‘ This is your quota and we might call you if you don ’ t do your work.
’ I never got called and I certainly didn ’ t meet all my quotas.
” In a Slack chat shared with FiveThirtyEight from February 27 , campaign directors pleaded with a group of DFOs to meet their quotas .
“ Reminder that we need to be on the phone for at least 1 hour everyday to make the impact we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Bloomberg campaign official wrote .
“ We are currently averaging 9 minutes a day – which is not enough.
” Grindstone had James set up accounts with campaign outreach tools like Hustle , a mass texting platform and Outvote , which compares a user ’ s personal contact list to registered voter databases .
DFOs were required to send a text “ blast ” to their entire personal contact list using Outvote at least once a week , according to documents James shared with FiveThirtyEight , but James said he was never @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Though James said he regularly called and texted registered voters , he rarely bothered to reach out to his personal contacts or leverage his social media .
He said he was encouraged to use social media , but that it wasn ’ t part of the job quotas .
In one of the few tweets he posted , James wrote simply “ I like Mike , ” along with a screenshot of him replying to a text from a Pete Buttigieg canvasser with a photo of Mike Bloomberg ’ s face on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2020 . )
“ No one was telling me , ‘ Post that meme and we ’ ll pay you , ’ ” James said .
When he did post on social media , he would then make fun of the posts on his finsta account ( or “ fake Instagram , ” a secondary Instagram account that ’ s usually only visible to close friends ) .
“ On my finsta I would often post about how I ’ m selling my soul to the Bloomberg campaign.
” Other Bloomberg DFOs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closely — copy and pasting the exact same tweet — that their accounts were flagged and suspended by Twitter .
Darr said James ’ s experience highlights the limits of this kind of outreach strategy , as well as the limits of what money can buy a campaign .
“ The old saying in the field is ‘ yard signs don ’ t vote , ’ but it seems like in Bloomberg ’ s case , it ’ s ‘ office space doesn ’ t vote , ’ ” Darr said .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which he undoubtedly did , doesn ’ t mean it ’ s a bustling center of volunteers making valuable connections with voters.
” James said he has put the money he earned in savings so he can either buy textbooks at college , or maybe “ a plane ticket somewhere .
”

A Teen ‘Influencer’ On What It Was Like To Work For The Bloomberg Campaign
An 18-year-old high school student in the Bay Area was playing Assassin — a kind of long-term, citywide game of tag using Nerf guns — when he noticed the signs: “Vote Mike Bloomberg.”
“I thought to myself, ‘Why is Bloomberg in a pro-Sanders district?’” said James, who asked us not to use his real name because he is not authorized to discuss his campaign work.
He pulled his car into the parking lot of the local campaign office and walked inside. A week later, he was collecting his first paycheck for his work on the campaign.
Throughout Bloomberg’s 101-day campaign for president, the former New York mayor spent more than $500 million. Part of that money was spent paying a campaign outreach firm, Grindstone Field Solutions, to hire hundreds of “deputy field organizers” (DFO) to campaign through phone calls, texts and social media posts, many of them teenagers like James.
The money was good: On average, James said he did about 10 hours of work a week, and on some days he wouldn’t do any work at all. But he got paid $83 per day regardless of how much work he did, which he said surprised him.
“I also work as a tutor and I get paid minimum wage, so I’m used to long hours and low pay,” he said. “I was severely overpaid for what I actually did. Maybe I just don’t understand how adult work culture works.”
FiveThirtyEight reached out to the Bloomberg campaign and Grindstone to discuss its DFO operation, but did not receive a response.
Hiring staff to do outreach is standard behavior for any political campaign, but James’s experience and documents he shared with FiveThirtyEight show how Bloomberg’s effort was unique. Other campaigns rely on volunteers and paid staff to do outreach over many months, tapping into their personal network to build relationships, according to Joshua Darr, a FiveThirtyEight contributor and political scientist.
“Bloomberg didn’t really have that option because he got in so late,” Darr said. “It’s true he had the money to get paid staffers to make these contacts, but he didn’t have the time really to do anything else.”
The Bloomberg campaign’s approach — hiring staffers to meet outreach quotas — is a more old-fashioned strategy, Darr said, but it only really works if there is strict accountability and oversight, which James said there was not.
“I actually did work but I think I could have, honestly, done no work and still gotten paid for this campaign,” James said. “They had no way of tracking. There was no enforcement system. They said, ‘This is your quota and we might call you if you don’t do your work.’ I never got called and I certainly didn’t meet all my quotas.”
In a Slack chat shared with FiveThirtyEight from February 27, campaign directors pleaded with a group of DFOs to meet their quotas.
“Reminder that we need to be on the phone for at least 1 hour everyday to make the impact we need to win Super Tuesday,” a Bloomberg campaign official wrote. “We are currently averaging 9 minutes a day – which is not enough.”
Grindstone had James set up accounts with campaign outreach tools like Hustle, a mass texting platform and Outvote, which compares a user’s personal contact list to registered voter databases. DFOs were required to send a text “blast” to their entire personal contact list using Outvote at least once a week, according to documents James shared with FiveThirtyEight, but James said he was never reprimanded for failing to meet those quotas.
Though James said he regularly called and texted registered voters, he rarely bothered to reach out to his personal contacts or leverage his social media. He said he was encouraged to use social media, but that it wasn’t part of the job quotas. In one of the few tweets he posted, James wrote simply “I like Mike,” along with a screenshot of him replying to a text from a Pete Buttigieg canvasser with a photo of Mike Bloomberg’s face on a meatball. (Such is politics in 2020.)
“No one was telling me, ‘Post that meme and we’ll pay you,’” James said. When he did post on social media, he would then make fun of the posts on his finsta account (or “fake Instagram,” a secondary Instagram account that’s usually only visible to close friends). “On my finsta I would often post about how I’m selling my soul to the Bloomberg campaign.”
Other Bloomberg DFOs followed the suggested social media language so closely — copy and pasting the exact same tweet — that their accounts were flagged and suspended by Twitter.
Darr said James’s experience highlights the limits of this kind of outreach strategy, as well as the limits of what money can buy a campaign.
“The old saying in the field is ‘yard signs don’t vote,’ but it seems like in Bloomberg’s case, it’s ‘office space doesn’t vote,’” Darr said. “Just because he had the office space, which he undoubtedly did, doesn’t mean it’s a bustling center of volunteers making valuable connections with voters.”
James said he has put the money he earned in savings so he can either buy textbooks at college, or maybe “a plane ticket somewhere.”


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-09--There’s No Guarantee Warren Voters Will Line Up Behind Sanders

Now that Sen. Elizabeth Warren has officially left the race , her supporters are faced with a decision : Do they cast their lot in with the progressive standard-bearer , Sen. Bernie Sanders , or opt for former Vice President Joe Biden ?
On the surface , it seems as if Warren supporters might be more inclined to vote for Sanders .
After all , the vast majority of Warren ’ s voters in the Super Tuesday states for which we have exit polls identified as somewhat or very liberal ( 81 percent ) , which might make them seem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ simpatico with Sanders .
But there are several reasons that her supporters might not move en masse to Sanders ’ s camp .
For one thing , Warren has yet to endorse either Sanders or Biden .
And several recent polls have found that her supporters ’ second-choice picks are fairly equally divided between Biden and Sanders .
Morning Consult , for instance , found that 43 percent of Warren supporters would opt for Sanders as their second choice , while 36 percent would choose Biden .
And a recent Ipsos/Reuters poll found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evenly split , with 47 percent picking Sanders , and 46 percent backing Biden .
But perhaps most troubling for Sanders : He was particularly weak with one of Warren ’ s key demographic groups — white college-educated women — on Super Tuesday , suggesting that it might not be easy for him to draw these voters into his fold .
White college-educated women weren ’ t Biden ’ s strongest group , to be sure , but he still outpaced Sanders by 15 percent points with this core piece of Warren ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did well with white voters generally . )
There ’ s also evidence that Warren voters ’ views on the issues don ’ t line up neatly with either Sanders ’ s or Biden ’ s base of supporters .
According to an analysis of aggregated surveys in the field from Jan. 9 to Feb. 13 administered by Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape , USA Today found that all three candidates ’ supporters have about the same levels of net support for many key issues in the Democratic primary , like limiting how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or offering a public option for insurance .
But on a few key policies , Warren supporters actually backed issues at rates more similar to Biden supporters than Sanders supporters .
For instance , net support for policies like debt-free college was at similar levels among Warren voters and Biden voters , although Biden has offered a considerably more moderate plan than either Warren or Sanders .
Biden ’ s proposal would prioritize making a two-year community college education — not a four-year college degree — free for students .
Similarly , Warren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in their net support for Medicare for All , even though it was a policy that she and Sanders both championed .
But there are other issues , like the Green New Deal , that Warren supporters are much more likely to back than Biden voters are , making them more similar to Sanders supporters on those points .
The variation suggests that even on policy issues , Warren ’ s supporters might not be as much of a shoo-in for Sanders as many might assume .
The exit polls also indicate that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their decision on the basis of ideology alone .
On the one hand , a clear majority ( 59 percent ) of Warren voters say they want a president who will be more liberal than Barack Obama , while only 32 percent say they want a return to Obama-era status quo .
That might seem like bad news for Biden , whose entire campaign pitch is a return to the Obama administration .
But most Warren voters also prioritize electing someone who can beat Trump — and Biden did much better than Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Only 30 percent of Warren supporters said they prefer a candidate who agrees with them on the issues over one who has a good chance of winning in the general election , while 67 percent say their main priority is to choose a candidate who can beat Trump .
So Warren ’ s departure might not be as much of a boon to Sanders as some of his allies hope .
Winning over white college-educated women could be particularly challenging for Sanders , since he performed the worst of these three candidates among @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support in this group was especially low in states like Virginia , which has a large population of highly educated voters in its northern suburbs .
In total , 51 percent of white college-educated women voted for Biden in Virginia , while 18 percent voted for Warren and only 15 percent went for Sanders .
This suggests that Sanders will continue to struggle among white college-educated women even now that Warren has left the race .
And without an endorsement from Warren , he could see a significant number of his progressive frenemy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden .

Now that Sen. Elizabeth Warren has officially left the race, her supporters are faced with a decision: Do they cast their lot in with the progressive standard-bearer, Sen. Bernie Sanders, or opt for former Vice President Joe Biden?
On the surface, it seems as if Warren supporters might be more inclined to vote for Sanders. After all, the vast majority of Warren’s voters in the Super Tuesday states for which we have exit polls identified as somewhat or very liberal (81 percent), which might make them seem like they’d be more ideologically simpatico with Sanders. But there are several reasons that her supporters might not move en masse to Sanders’s camp.
For one thing, Warren has yet to endorse either Sanders or Biden. And several recent polls have found that her supporters’ second-choice picks are fairly equally divided between Biden and Sanders. Morning Consult, for instance, found that 43 percent of Warren supporters would opt for Sanders as their second choice, while 36 percent would choose Biden. And a recent Ipsos/Reuters poll found that Warren supporters’ second-choice loyalties were evenly split, with 47 percent picking Sanders, and 46 percent backing Biden.
But perhaps most troubling for Sanders: He was particularly weak with one of Warren’s key demographic groups — white college-educated women — on Super Tuesday, suggesting that it might not be easy for him to draw these voters into his fold. White college-educated women weren’t Biden’s strongest group, to be sure, but he still outpaced Sanders by 15 percent points with this core piece of Warren’s base. (Granted, Biden did well with white voters generally.)
College-educated white women were Warren’s base Share who supported each candidate on Super Tuesday by race, gender and education, from exit polls Answer BIDEN SANDERS WARREN Other White college-educated women 36% 21% 28% 14% White women, no degree 43 28 12 17 White college-educated men 38 29 16 16 White men, no degree 37 37 10 12 Super Tuesday states for which exit poll data is available are Alabama, California, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. “Other” includes all of the remaining candidates who respondents said they were voting for on Super Tuesday, including candidates who dropped out. Nonwhite support was not broken out by gender and education.
There’s also evidence that Warren voters’ views on the issues don’t line up neatly with either Sanders’s or Biden’s base of supporters. According to an analysis of aggregated surveys in the field from Jan. 9 to Feb. 13 administered by Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape, USA Today found that all three candidates’ supporters have about the same levels of net support for many key issues in the Democratic primary, like limiting how many bullets a gun magazine can hold or offering a public option for insurance. But on a few key policies, Warren supporters actually backed issues at rates more similar to Biden supporters than Sanders supporters.
For instance, net support for policies like debt-free college was at similar levels among Warren voters and Biden voters, although Biden has offered a considerably more moderate plan than either Warren or Sanders. Biden’s proposal would prioritize making a two-year community college education — not a four-year college degree — free for students. Similarly, Warren supporters fall between Biden and Sanders supporters in their net support for Medicare for All, even though it was a policy that she and Sanders both championed. But there are other issues, like the Green New Deal, that Warren supporters are much more likely to back than Biden voters are, making them more similar to Sanders supporters on those points. The variation suggests that even on policy issues, Warren’s supporters might not be as much of a shoo-in for Sanders as many might assume.
The exit polls also indicate that many Warren supporters aren’t making their decision on the basis of ideology alone. On the one hand, a clear majority (59 percent) of Warren voters say they want a president who will be more liberal than Barack Obama, while only 32 percent say they want a return to Obama-era status quo. That might seem like bad news for Biden, whose entire campaign pitch is a return to the Obama administration. But most Warren voters also prioritize electing someone who can beat Trump — and Biden did much better than Sanders among voters who shared that sentiment. Only 30 percent of Warren supporters said they prefer a candidate who agrees with them on the issues over one who has a good chance of winning in the general election, while 67 percent say their main priority is to choose a candidate who can beat Trump.
So Warren’s departure might not be as much of a boon to Sanders as some of his allies hope. Winning over white college-educated women could be particularly challenging for Sanders, since he performed the worst of these three candidates among this group on Super Tuesday. His support in this group was especially low in states like Virginia, which has a large population of highly educated voters in its northern suburbs. In total, 51 percent of white college-educated women voted for Biden in Virginia, while 18 percent voted for Warren and only 15 percent went for Sanders.
This suggests that Sanders will continue to struggle among white college-educated women even now that Warren has left the race. And without an endorsement from Warren, he could see a significant number of his progressive frenemy’s supporters fall in line behind Biden.
Laura Bronner contributed research.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-10--Michigan Might Not Be As Sanders-Friendly This Time

“ Anybody else getting deja vu ?
” tweeted Monmouth University polling director Patrick Murray on Monday .
He , of course , was referring to the fact that Sen. Bernie Sanders currently trails in Michigan polls by about the same margin as he did in 2016 — before he went on to beat Hillary Clinton there in one of the greatest upsets in polling history .
Sanders ’ s polling deficit is eerily similar to 2016 .
Sanders trailed Clinton by 21.3 percentage points in our final polling average of 2016 in Michigan .
As of late Monday evening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ President Joe Biden by 23.3 percentage points in our polling average .
There ’ s one big difference , though .
In 2016 , Sanders ’ s big polling deficit never made that much sense .
Sanders was strong that year with white working-class voters , who are plentiful in Michigan , and contributed to Donald Trump ’ s victory there in the general election .
And if you look at the states that border Michigan , Sanders performed relatively well in them in 2016 , too .
He won two of Michigan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — Wisconsin and Indiana — while losing Ohio .
And although the Ohio loss was fairly significant ( by 13 percentage points ) it was still fairly modest as compared to the margin that polls were showing for Clinton in Michigan four years ago.True , all of those states voted after Michigan in 2016 .
But Sanders performed well in other Midwestern states that voted before Michigan , including Kansas , Minnesota and Nebraska which he won , and Iowa , where he essentially tied Clinton .
( One important caveat : all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 in contrast to Michigan ’ s primary , and Sanders generally did better in caucus-states in 2016 . )
This year , though , it ’ s not so clear that working-class white voters are a strength for Sanders .
Instead , as Nate Cohn of The New York Times ’ s The Upshot points out , they might be more of a Biden strength , or at least this was true on Super Tuesday .
Biden won Minnesota , the only Midwestern state on the docket last week ( it switched @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year ) .
He also won states in the inland South , such as Tennessee and Oklahoma , that have demographics that somewhat resemble Michigan ’ s ( i.e.
, a mix of working-class whites and some African Americans ) .
Biden also won Maine , which has one of the highest percentages in the country of whites without a college degree .
And Biden generally performed well in the rural parts of these states .
He won every county in Oklahoma and all but a few of them in Minnesota .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ came because of rural areas ; he lost to Sanders in Portland ’ s Cumberland County and in some of the more well-to-do areas along the coast .
Here ’ s another way to look at things .
The FiveThirtyEight primary model calculates a “ fundamentals ” forecast in each state based on a combination of demographics and geography .
The demographic calculation is based on both polls of other states and previous results , accounting for factors like the racial composition of each state , how liberal or conservative it is , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and how rural it is .
By geography , I mean accounting for home-state and home-region effects .
These home-region factors aren ’ t terribly relevant in Michigan since neither Sanders or Biden are really from the Midwest .
Here is Biden ’ s demographic forecast in each remaining state as of late Monday evening .
For reference sake , I ’ ve also listed Biden ’ s current margin in our national polling average .
The demographic forecast puts Biden up by 22.9 percentage points in Michigan , which is noteworthy for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very similar to the polling average there ( 23.3 percentage points ) .
• It suggests that Michigan is , if anything , a slightly above-average state for Biden .
His projected margin of victory in Michigan is slightly wider than his lead in national polls ( 18.3 points ) , and Michigan ranks as the 8th-best state for Biden based on demographics of the 32 states that have yet to vote .
Does that mean Biden is completely out of the woods in Michigan ?
Well , who knows .
Even a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gives to Sanders as of late Monday ) is something ; we take our 2 percent chances seriously here at FiveThirtyEight .
For a more complete rundown of the polling issues in Michigan and what pollsters say has changed this year , I ’ d recommend this article by Steven Shepard at Politico .
But nothing about the polling in Michigan is terribly out of line with what we ’ ve seen in national polls or in polls of other states ( which have been uniformly quite bad for Sanders over the past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of line with the results on Super Tuesday .
Sanders ’ s strengths this year have been concentrated among younger progressives and among Hispanics , neither of who are plentiful in great numbers in Michigan .
And the places that most closely resemble Michigan were strong areas for Biden last week , so tomorrow might not be the start of the comeback Sanders needs .

“Anybody else getting deja vu?” tweeted Monmouth University polling director Patrick Murray on Monday. He, of course, was referring to the fact that Sen. Bernie Sanders currently trails in Michigan polls by about the same margin as he did in 2016 — before he went on to beat Hillary Clinton there in one of the greatest upsets in polling history.
Sanders’s polling deficit is eerily similar to 2016. Sanders trailed Clinton by 21.3 percentage points in our final primary polling average of the state in 2016. As of late Monday evening, he’s behind former Vice President Joe Biden by 23.3 percentage points in our polling average.
There’s one big difference, though. In 2016, Sanders’s big polling deficit never made that much sense. Sanders was strong that year with white working-class voters, who are plentiful in Michigan, and contributed to Donald Trump’s victory there in the general election.
And Sanders also performed relatively well in the states that border Michigan in 2016. He won two of its three neighbors, in fact — Wisconsin and Indiana — while losing Ohio. And although the Ohio loss was fairly significant (by 13 percentage points) it was still fairly modest as compared to the margin that polls were showing for Clinton in Michigan four years ago. True, all of those states voted after Michigan in 2016. But Sanders performed well in other Midwestern states that voted before Michigan, including Kansas, Minnesota and Nebraska, which he won, and Iowa, where he essentially tied Clinton. (One important caveat: All of those states had held caucuses in 2016 in contrast to Michigan’s primary, and Sanders generally did better in caucus-states in 2016.)
This year, though, it’s not so clear that working-class white voters are a strength for Sanders. Instead, as Nate Cohn of The New York Times’s The Upshot points out, they might be more of a Biden strength, or at least they were on Super Tuesday. Biden won Minnesota, the only Midwestern state on the docket last week (it switched from a caucus to a primary this year). He also won states in the inland South, such as Tennessee and Oklahoma, whose demographics somewhat resemble Michigan’s (i.e., a mix of working-class whites and some African Americans). Biden also won Maine, which has one of the highest percentages in the country of white people without a college degree.
And Biden generally performed well in the rural parts of these states. He won every county in Oklahoma and all but a few of Minnesota. In Maine, Biden’s upset win came because of rural areas; he lost to Sanders in Portland’s Cumberland County and in some of the more well-to-do areas along the coast.
Here’s another way to look at things. The FiveThirtyEight primary model calculates a baseline forecast in each state based on a combination of demographics and geography. The demographic calculation is based on both polls of other states and previous results, accounting for factors like the racial composition of each state, how liberal or conservative it is, the socioeconomic status of its voters, and how rural it is. By geography, I mean accounting for home-state and home-region effects. These home-region factors aren’t terribly relevant in Michigan since neither Sanders or Biden are really from the Midwest.
Here is Biden’s demographic forecast in each remaining state as of late Monday evening. For reference, I’ve also listed Biden’s current margin in our national polling average.
Michigan is demographically favorable for Biden Biden’s projected margin over Sanders based on demographic and geographic fundamentals, according to FiveThirtyEight’s primary model as of 8:30 p.m. Eastern on March 9 State Projected Biden margin of victory Delaware +59.5% – Mississippi +47.4 – Louisiana +40.1 – Georgia +35.2 – Maryland +34.6 – Florida +31.1 – Pennsylvania +30.3 – Michigan +22.9 – New Jersey +22.6 – Missouri +22.6 – Illinois +21.4 – Ohio +21.0 – Montana +19.7 – Kentucky +19.5 – West Virginia +17.9 – South Dakota +17.7 – Indiana +17.1 – New York +16.5 – Connecticut +14.8 – Arizona +14.6 – Nebraska +14.2 – North Dakota +14.2 – Wisconsin +13.5 – Kansas +13.4 – Alaska +11.6 – New Mexico +10.4 – Idaho +10.2 – Wyoming +9.3 – Oregon +9.0 – Hawaii +8.6 – Washington +5.5 – Rhode Island +4.5 –
The demographic forecast puts Biden up by 22.9 percentage points in Michigan, which is noteworthy for two reasons:
It’s very similar to the polling average there (23.3 percentage points). It suggests that Michigan is, if anything, a slightly above-average state for Biden. His projected margin of victory in Michigan is slightly wider than his lead in national polls (18.3 points), and Michigan ranks as the eighth-best state for Biden based on demographics of the 32 states that have yet to vote.
Does that mean Biden is completely out of the woods in Michigan? Well, who knows. Even a 2 percent chance (which is what our model gives Sanders as of late Monday) is something; we take our 2 percent chances seriously here at FiveThirtyEight. For a more complete rundown of the polling issues in Michigan and what pollsters say has changed this year, I’d recommend this article by Steven Shepard at Politico.
But nothing about the polling in Michigan is terribly out of line with what we’ve seen in national polls or in polls of other states (which have been uniformly quite bad for Sanders over the past few days). Nor is it out of line with the results on Super Tuesday. Sanders’s strengths this year have been concentrated among younger progressives and Hispanics, and neither group is plentiful in Michigan. And the places that most closely resemble Michigan were strong areas for Biden last week, so Tuesday might not be the start of the comeback Sanders needs.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-10--Can Sanders Make Up Ground In Tuesday’s Primaries?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight ’ s weekly politics chat .
The transcript below has been lightly edited .
sarahf ( Sarah Frostenson , politics editor ) : Six more states vote ( and Democrats Abroad wraps up its primary ) today , with 365 delegates on the table .
Former Vice President Joe Biden is currently projected to win all of today ’ s primaries , but these races are hardly all in the bag for Biden .
Sanders is the underdog , but there could always be a polling surprise or two — remember the 2016 Democratic primary in Michigan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tomorrow ?
And is this one of Sanders ’ s last opportunities to mount a comeback ?
nrakich ( Nathaniel Rakich , elections analyst ) : Yeah , it ’ s a pretty important day for Sanders .
Several Western and Midwestern states vote today — the kind that are a good fit for Sanders — so it ’ s one of his last big opportunities to turn things around .
And it ’ s important he makes some inroads now , since next week Florida , Illinois , Ohio and Arizona are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be good for Biden if the state of the race stays the same .
geoffrey.skelley ( Geoffrey Skelley , elections analyst ) : Sanders has to have a better-than-expected performance today because the rest of March isn ’ t great for him .
Not only is March 17 bad , as Nathaniel pointed out , but then Georgia — a state Biden is expected to win handily — is the only state voting on March 24. sarahf : Yeah , of the states up today , Michigan is just so crucial for Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ delegate haul on the calendar , but things don ’ t look good for him .
He now has a 2 percent chance of winning , according to our forecast .
nrakich : Oh man , shades of 2016 !
Things were eerily similar before Michigan then too .
geoffrey.skelley : Polls were off by a historically large margin in the 2016 Michigan Democratic primary , but this time pollsters can use the 2016 primary to model the 2020 electorate , so hopefully that means the polls are more accurate .
After all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was pollsters didn ’ t have a good recent primary to use , which contributed to the screw-up .
sarahf : That ’ s a fair point , Nathaniel , but watching Sanders ’ s odds drop precipitously over the last few days in Michigan as we got more and more polls makes me think 2016 might be the exception .
Of course , as Geoffrey noted , there was a systemic polling failure in 2016 , but given how much of the map Biden won on Super Tuesday — areas like Massachusetts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think his odds aren ’ t being undervalued this year .
nrakich : Yeah , according to our friends at The New York Times ’ s The Upshot , a lot of the factors that allowed that Sanders upset in 2016 aren ’ t present this time around either .
Specifically , Sanders hasn ’ t been as strong in working-class Northern strongholds this year as he was in 2016 .
Think about how Biden managed to beat Sanders in Maine and Minnesota .
Sanders ’ s hope is that even though Detroit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the state ( which is much whiter ) will vote for him .
But that hope might be misplaced , as that hasn ’ t been the case in other parts of the country so far .
ameliatd ( Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux , senior writer ) : But say Sanders does manage to win Michigan — wouldn ’ t that be an even bigger deal this year , since he ’ s once again an underdog but was a national front-runner just a few weeks ago ?
nrakich : Yeah , Amelia , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ say that Sanders has to win Michigan in order to prove he can strike deep enough in Biden territory to still win the nomination .
ameliatd : It does seem , anecdotally , like he ’ s struggling to connect with some voters of color — and in particular , black voters , since there aren ’ t that many Latinos in Michigan .
I was at a Sanders rally at the University of Michigan Sunday night and there wasn ’ t a lot of racial diversity .
Sanders did just get a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , so maybe that makes a difference ?
But it was striking to hear that endorsement touted by Sanders and his surrogates ( including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ) in front of a mostly white crowd .
geoffrey.skelley : I ’ m skeptical Jackson ’ s endorsement is going to move a lot of voters .
Yes , Jackson won Michigan when he ran for president in 1988 — which might carry some additional weight — but it was an entirely different primary setup .
( It was also 32 years ago ! )
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a real pain point for Sanders : A lot of the factors that helped him in 2016 aren ’ t holding up in 2020 .
For instance , exit polls showed that Biden really ate into Sanders ’ s advantage among white voters on Super Tuesday , especially among those who decided who to support in the last few days .
Biden won the majority of them ( 51 percent ) , a 28-point increase from his performance among those who had decided earlier .
ameliatd : I ’ m also really curious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will go .
As FiveThirtyEight contributor Meredith Conroy and I wrote on Monday , there ’ s no guarantee that they ’ ll line up behind Sanders — particularly white college-educated women , who made up the core of Warren ’ s base .
geoffrey.skelley : And because Michigan has an open primary , I ’ m also curious to see whether Sanders ’ s numbers fall in places like Ann Arbor and Kalamazoo , where there were a fair number of John Kasich voters in the 2016 GOP primary , some of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic contest .
nrakich : According to exit polls , Democratic electorates in open primary states like New Hampshire and Virginia have been less liberal this year than they were in 2016 — probably because the Republican primary isn ’ t competitive .
This has meant some Democratic-curious Republicans or Republican-leaning independents are participating in the Democratic primaries .
( To be clear , this doesn ’ t mean die-hard Republicans are voting in the Democratic primaries in order to sow chaos . )
sarahf : So , say , our forecast is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tomorrow ’ s contests .
If that happens , is Sanders ’ s campaign on life support ?
Might tomorrow night be even more important than Super Tuesday ?
nrakich : If that comes to pass , when the history books ( or Wikipedia articles ) about this campaign are written , I still think Super Tuesday will be seen as the turning point .
Super Tuesday is what put Sanders in this hole , after all .
But yes , I would agree that the campaign would be on life support if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expected routs on March 17 ( assuming they happen ) serving as the death blow .
geoffrey.skelley : In the sense that Sanders ’ s campaign could essentially be over after today , today is more important .
But as Nathaniel said , Sanders is only in this spot because Biden performed so well on Super Tuesday — it was almost the ideal outcome for him .
In an alternate universe where Sanders wins Maine , Massachusetts and Minnesota , and maybe ekes things out or basically ties in Texas , the race @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yeah , Super Tuesday is still the key moment .
nrakich : Absolutely .
Sanders would be the delegate leader at this point if that were true and could absorb a big Biden win .
Although is this where we point out that California is still not done counting ?
geoffrey.skelley : Charles Stewart at MIT has been following the day-by-day count in California , and Sanders actually had his best day post-Election Day on March 8 .
He still leads by 7 points , but yeah , lots of votes left to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Super Tuesday has led Sanders to this do-or-die moment — Michigan wouldn ’ t be so high-stakes if he hadn ’ t lost states like Minnesota .
And Sanders is plainly aware of that .
He has spent a lot of time in Michigan over the past few days .
I guess — thinking about more X-factors — could fears about coronavirus dampen voter turnout , particularly among older people ?
That could maybe help Sanders , if his younger base is more willing to brave crowded spaces and shared touchscreens .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ worried about the effect on poll workers , to be honest .
Many of them are older and might want to stay home instead of interacting with hundreds of people .
That could cause polling places to be understaffed , which could lead to longer lines .
sarahf : Oof .
Coronavirus was definitely something many voters said they were concerned about on Super Tuesday , but without leaning too much into a big public health scare , I ’ m struggling to think of more X-factors for today .
Biden ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Pete Buttigieg dropping out and endorsing him were just such big game-changers for Super Tuesday , it has felt a little like tomorrow is a foregone conclusion .
But OK , we didn ’ t see a lot of Biden ’ s potential strength last Tuesday until the last minute , so in that vein , two unexpected surprises for today could be : ( i ) The polls have overestimated Biden ’ s strength , or ( ii ) Warren dropping out boosts Sanders ’ s support in some of these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nearly every state and national survey conducted since Super Tuesday .
Though Emerson College did find Sanders down only 4 points in Missouri , so that ’ s a decent poll for him , all things considered .
ameliatd : It ’ s too bad for Sanders that the debate isn ’ t until next week , as I think he ’ s generally been a stronger debater than Biden .
His performance could help shift momentum .
sarahf : That was one X-factor I was thinking about .
But in some ways @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a bit too late for Sanders if it ’ s another Biden blowout today .
ameliatd : Yeah , I agree , Sarah .
I don ’ t think a good debate performance next Sunday can save Sanders if he bombs today .
nrakich : Mmm , I dunno , I think the debate is Sanders ’ s one glimmer of hope if he doesn ’ t score the wins he needs today .
Less so because of anything Sanders might do , but more so if Biden does something truly bone-headed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders would just be relying on a bad performance from Biden .
But it would have to be really , really bad , I think .
sarahf : How does the debate help Sanders moving forward , though , if some of his best states are today and he still underperforms ?
nrakich : It could still affect votes for the big March 17 primaries .
I think ultimately today ’ s primaries are less important for what they themselves represent and more important for how they affect bigger primaries down the road @ @ @ @ @ @ @ So Sanders could mayyyybe get away with a bad election night on March 10 if the March 15 debate is a game-changer .
geoffrey.skelley : I ’ m going to agree with the idea that Sanders could have used a debate this week instead .
He needed something to change the conversation , and that hasn ’ t happened .
ameliatd : And the important thing is that Biden ’ s performance is not really in Sanders ’ s control .
If you go into the debate just hoping that your opponent steps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a good place to be .
ameliatd : I also don ’ t think it helps Sanders that many former Democratic candidates are coalescing around Biden .
He appeared at a rally in Detroit Monday night with Sens .
Cory Booker and Kamala Harris .
Meanwhile , Sanders doesn ’ t have an endorsement from Warren , this cycle ’ s most prominent other progressive candidate .
geoffrey.skelley : Right , among the former 2020 candidates Sanders has earned the backing of just New York Mayor Bill de Blasio and Marianne Williamson , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who has earned the endorsements of almost half of the other candidates who ran , including Booker , Buttigieg , Harris , Klobuchar , John Delaney , Deval Patrick , Michael Bloomberg , Beto O ’ Rourke and Tim Ryan .
ameliatd : A couple people at the Sanders rally on Sunday night said they were hoping Biden will pick Klobuchar or Harris as his running mate .
Of course , I don ’ t think Biden is going to announce his VP pick today .
But their endorsements could be reassuring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ woman or a person of color on the ticket in November .
geoffrey.skelley : Interesting , were those Sanders voters or just curious undecideds ?
ameliatd : Curious undecideds !
One of them told me he was at the rally because he wanted to “ feel the Bern , ” but wasn ’ t there yet .
sarahf : It does feel as if the race has entered that phase where we know the ending : that is , Biden will win this thing outright .
And I guess , while the primary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if Biden dominates again ( I can ’ t see Sanders dropping out before the debate on Sunday ) , the overall trajectory seems pretty baked in at this point , barring some big Sanders upsets .
Is that fair ?
It just seems as if there are genuinely fewer possible surprises this time around , aside from a systemic polling error or a scary coronavirus-related outbreak ( which … let ’ s not game that out 😬 ) .
nrakich : Yeah , I think that ’ s definitely fair , Sarah @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but it ’ s just varying degrees of bad news for Sanders : Right now he is pretty screwed .
If he does poorly on March 10 , he will be on life support .
If he does poorly on March 17 , he will be totally done for .
geoffrey.skelley : On the most recent installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast ’ s “ Model Talk , ” editor-in-chief Nate Silver described the events of Super Tuesday as basically Biden ’ s 90th to 95th percentile outcome .
That is , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could have hoped for .
Because of that , Biden has been set up very nicely for the remainder of March in a bunch of states that are now better for him than Sanders .
In other words , it ’ ll be very difficult for Sanders to overtake Biden .
But of course , the proof is the pudding — that is , the actual results .
ameliatd : It does feel like Sanders is running out of opportunities to turn things around .
A bunch of things lined up last week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maybe that could still happen for Sanders ?
But this is his dramatic comeback moment , if he ’ s going to have one .

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Six more states vote (and Democrats Abroad wraps up its primary) today, with 365 delegates on the table. Former Vice President Joe Biden is currently projected to win all of today’s primaries, but these races are hardly all in the bag for Biden. Sanders is the underdog, but there could always be a polling surprise or two — remember the 2016 Democratic primary in Michigan.
So what are the stakes for tomorrow? And is this one of Sanders’s last opportunities to mount a comeback?
nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): Yeah, it’s a pretty important day for Sanders. Several Western and Midwestern states vote today — the kind that are a good fit for Sanders — so it’s one of his last big opportunities to turn things around.
And it’s important he makes some inroads now, since next week Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona are up — four big states that should be good for Biden if the state of the race stays the same.
geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Sanders has to have a better-than-expected performance today because the rest of March isn’t great for him. Not only is March 17 bad, as Nathaniel pointed out, but then Georgia — a state Biden is expected to win handily — is the only state voting on March 24.
sarahf: Yeah, of the states up today, Michigan is just so crucial for Sanders, as it’s the biggest delegate haul on the calendar, but things don’t look good for him. He now has a 2 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast.
nrakich: Oh man, shades of 2016! Things were eerily similar before Michigan then too.
geoffrey.skelley: Polls were off by a historically large margin in the 2016 Michigan Democratic primary, but this time pollsters can use the 2016 primary to model the 2020 electorate, so hopefully that means the polls are more accurate. After all, part of the problem in 2016 was pollsters didn’t have a good recent primary to use, which contributed to the screw-up.
sarahf: That’s a fair point, Nathaniel, but watching Sanders’s odds drop precipitously over the last few days in Michigan as we got more and more polls makes me think 2016 might be the exception. Of course, as Geoffrey noted, there was a systemic polling failure in 2016, but given how much of the map Biden won on Super Tuesday — areas like Massachusetts, Maine and Minnesota — makes me think his odds aren’t being undervalued this year.
nrakich: Yeah, according to our friends at The New York Times’s The Upshot, a lot of the factors that allowed that Sanders upset in 2016 aren’t present this time around either. Specifically, Sanders hasn’t been as strong in working-class Northern strongholds this year as he was in 2016. Think about how Biden managed to beat Sanders in Maine and Minnesota. Sanders’s hope is that even though Detroit will vote for Biden, the rest of the state (which is much whiter) will vote for him. But that hope might be misplaced, as that hasn’t been the case in other parts of the country so far.
ameliatd (Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, senior writer): But say Sanders does manage to win Michigan — wouldn’t that be an even bigger deal this year, since he’s once again an underdog but was a national front-runner just a few weeks ago?
nrakich: Yeah, Amelia, I might go so far as to say that Sanders has to win Michigan in order to prove he can strike deep enough in Biden territory to still win the nomination.
ameliatd: It does seem, anecdotally, like he’s struggling to connect with some voters of color — and in particular, black voters, since there aren’t that many Latinos in Michigan. I was at a Sanders rally at the University of Michigan Sunday night and there wasn’t a lot of racial diversity. Sanders did just get a big endorsement from Rev. Jesse Jackson, so maybe that makes a difference? But it was striking to hear that endorsement touted by Sanders and his surrogates (including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) in front of a mostly white crowd.
geoffrey.skelley: I’m skeptical Jackson’s endorsement is going to move a lot of voters. Yes, Jackson won Michigan when he ran for president in 1988 — which might carry some additional weight — but it was an entirely different primary setup. (It was also 32 years ago!)
sarahf: Yeah, Nathaniel pointed out a real pain point for Sanders: A lot of the factors that helped him in 2016 aren’t holding up in 2020. For instance, exit polls showed that Biden really ate into Sanders’s advantage among white voters on Super Tuesday, especially among those who decided who to support in the last few days. Biden won the majority of them (51 percent), a 28-point increase from his performance among those who had decided earlier.
White voters had the biggest last-minute swing Vote share by candidate among voters who decided in the last few days (“late” voters) and prior to the last few days (“early” voters) by race, according to exit polls in 11 Super Tuesday states Biden Sanders Group Early Late Diff. Early Late Diff. Black 60% 55% -5 17% 22% +5 White 23 51 +28 36 17 -19 Hispanic 21 37 +16 48 22 -26 All 28 49 +21 35 18 -17 Colorado is not included as its exit poll was conducted prior to Election Day to account for its mostly mail-in balloting system and it included candidates who withdrew just ahead of Super Tuesday. We don’t have exit poll data from Arkansas, Utah or American Samoa. Source: ABC NEWS/edison research
ameliatd: I’m also really curious where Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s supporters will go. As FiveThirtyEight contributor Meredith Conroy and I wrote on Monday, there’s no guarantee that they’ll line up behind Sanders — particularly white college-educated women, who made up the core of Warren’s base.
geoffrey.skelley: And because Michigan has an open primary, I’m also curious to see whether Sanders’s numbers fall in places like Ann Arbor and Kalamazoo, where there were a fair number of John Kasich voters in the 2016 GOP primary, some of whom might vote in today’s Democratic contest.
nrakich: According to exit polls, Democratic electorates in open primary states like New Hampshire and Virginia have been less liberal this year than they were in 2016 — probably because the Republican primary isn’t competitive. This has meant some Democratic-curious Republicans or Republican-leaning independents are participating in the Democratic primaries. (To be clear, this doesn’t mean die-hard Republicans are voting in the Democratic primaries in order to sow chaos.)
sarahf: So, say, our forecast is spot on and Biden wins all of tomorrow’s contests. If that happens, is Sanders’s campaign on life support? Might tomorrow night be even more important than Super Tuesday?
nrakich: If that comes to pass, when the history books (or Wikipedia articles) about this campaign are written, I still think Super Tuesday will be seen as the turning point. Super Tuesday is what put Sanders in this hole, after all.
But yes, I would agree that the campaign would be on life support if that happened, with Biden’s expected routs on March 17 (assuming they happen) serving as the death blow.
geoffrey.skelley: In the sense that Sanders’s campaign could essentially be over after today, today is more important. But as Nathaniel said, Sanders is only in this spot because Biden performed so well on Super Tuesday — it was almost the ideal outcome for him. In an alternate universe where Sanders wins Maine, Massachusetts and Minnesota, and maybe ekes things out or basically ties in Texas, the race is much closer going forward.
So yeah, Super Tuesday is still the key moment.
nrakich: Absolutely. Sanders would be the delegate leader at this point if that were true and could absorb a big Biden win.
Although is this where we point out that California is still not done counting?
geoffrey.skelley: Charles Stewart at MIT has been following the day-by-day count in California, and Sanders actually had his best day post-Election Day on March 8. He still leads by 7 points, but yeah, lots of votes left to count.
ameliatd: It does seem like Super Tuesday has led Sanders to this do-or-die moment — Michigan wouldn’t be so high-stakes if he hadn’t lost states like Minnesota. And Sanders is plainly aware of that. He has spent a lot of time in Michigan over the past few days.
I guess — thinking about more X-factors — could fears about coronavirus dampen voter turnout, particularly among older people? That could maybe help Sanders, if his younger base is more willing to brave crowded spaces and shared touchscreens.
nrakich: I’d be more worried about the effect on poll workers, to be honest.
Many of them are older and might want to stay home instead of interacting with hundreds of people. That could cause polling places to be understaffed, which could lead to longer lines.
sarahf: Oof. Coronavirus was definitely something many voters said they were concerned about on Super Tuesday, but without leaning too much into a big public health scare, I’m struggling to think of more X-factors for today. Biden’s polling bump post-South Carolina and Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg dropping out and endorsing him were just such big game-changers for Super Tuesday, it has felt a little like tomorrow is a foregone conclusion.
But OK, we didn’t see a lot of Biden’s potential strength last Tuesday until the last minute, so in that vein, two unexpected surprises for today could be: (i) The polls have overestimated Biden’s strength, or (ii) Warren dropping out boosts Sanders’s support in some of these states.
geoffrey.skelley: Biden has led nearly every state and national survey conducted since Super Tuesday. Though Emerson College did find Sanders down only 4 points in Missouri, so that’s a decent poll for him, all things considered.
ameliatd: It’s too bad for Sanders that the debate isn’t until next week, as I think he’s generally been a stronger debater than Biden. His performance could help shift momentum.
sarahf: That was one X-factor I was thinking about.
But in some ways, it feels like the debate might be a bit too late for Sanders if it’s another Biden blowout today.
ameliatd: Yeah, I agree, Sarah. I don’t think a good debate performance next Sunday can save Sanders if he bombs today.
nrakich: Mmm, I dunno, I think the debate is Sanders’s one glimmer of hope if he doesn’t score the wins he needs today.
Less so because of anything Sanders might do, but more so if Biden does something truly bone-headed.
ameliatd: Right, I think Sanders would just be relying on a bad performance from Biden. But it would have to be really, really bad, I think.
sarahf: How does the debate help Sanders moving forward, though, if some of his best states are today and he still underperforms?
nrakich: It could still affect votes for the big March 17 primaries.
I think ultimately today’s primaries are less important for what they themselves represent and more important for how they affect bigger primaries down the road (i.e., March 17). So Sanders could mayyyybe get away with a bad election night on March 10 if the March 15 debate is a game-changer.
geoffrey.skelley: I’m going to agree with the idea that Sanders could have used a debate this week instead. He needed something to change the conversation, and that hasn’t happened.
ameliatd: And the important thing is that Biden’s performance is not really in Sanders’s control. If you go into the debate just hoping that your opponent steps in it — that’s not a good place to be.
nrakich: Totally agree with that, Amelia.
ameliatd: I also don’t think it helps Sanders that many former Democratic candidates are coalescing around Biden. He appeared at a rally in Detroit Monday night with Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, Sanders doesn’t have an endorsement from Warren, this cycle’s most prominent other progressive candidate.
geoffrey.skelley: Right, among the former 2020 candidates Sanders has earned the backing of just New York Mayor Bill de Blasio and Marianne Williamson, which is in stark contrast to Biden, who has earned the endorsements of almost half of the other candidates who ran, including Booker, Buttigieg, Harris, Klobuchar, John Delaney, Deval Patrick, Michael Bloomberg, Beto O’Rourke and Tim Ryan.
ameliatd: A couple people at the Sanders rally on Sunday night said they were hoping Biden will pick Klobuchar or Harris as his running mate. Of course, I don’t think Biden is going to announce his VP pick today. But their endorsements could be reassuring to people who think Democrats need a woman or a person of color on the ticket in November.
geoffrey.skelley: Interesting, were those Sanders voters or just curious undecideds?
ameliatd: Curious undecideds! One of them told me he was at the rally because he wanted to “feel the Bern,” but wasn’t there yet.
sarahf: It does feel as if the race has entered that phase where we know the ending: that is, Biden will win this thing outright. And I guess, while the primary definitely won’t be over tomorrow if Biden dominates again (I can’t see Sanders dropping out before the debate on Sunday), the overall trajectory seems pretty baked in at this point, barring some big Sanders upsets.
Is that fair? It just seems as if there are genuinely fewer possible surprises this time around, aside from a systemic polling error or a scary coronavirus-related outbreak (which … let’s not game that out 😬).
nrakich: Yeah, I think that’s definitely fair, Sarah. These things fall along a spectrum, but it’s just varying degrees of bad news for Sanders: Right now he is pretty screwed. If he does poorly on March 10, he will be on life support. If he does poorly on March 17, he will be totally done for.
geoffrey.skelley: On the most recent installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast’s “Model Talk,” editor-in-chief Nate Silver described the events of Super Tuesday as basically Biden’s 90th to 95th percentile outcome. That is, it was about as good as he could have hoped for. Because of that, Biden has been set up very nicely for the remainder of March in a bunch of states that are now better for him than Sanders. In other words, it’ll be very difficult for Sanders to overtake Biden. But of course, the proof is the pudding — that is, the actual results.
ameliatd: It does feel like Sanders is running out of opportunities to turn things around. A bunch of things lined up last week in Biden’s favor — so maybe that could still happen for Sanders? But this is his dramatic comeback moment, if he’s going to have one.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-10--Democratic Primaries: Live Updates And Results From Michigan, Washington And More

Democratic Primaries : Live Updates And Results From Michigan , Washington And More

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fivethirtyeight--2020-03-10--Will The Democratic Primary Remain Split Along Racial Lines?

The 2020 Democratic primary so far has featured an interesting racial breakdown : The party ’ s black voters have been decidedly with one candidate ( former Vice President Joe Biden ) , its Hispanic voters have been leaning toward another ( Sen. Bernie Sanders ) , and white voters have been more evenly divided between the two .
We ’ ll need more data , polling and election results to know how that ’ s changed in the wake of Biden ’ s romp on Super Tuesday — today ’ s elections will provide some answers — but it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the way they have so far .
Biden has won black voters in nine of the 10 states where exit polls got enough black respondents to offer information about how they voted ( he and Sanders were effectively tied in Minnesota ) .
And in nine of those 10 states ( all but Massachusetts ) , Biden won a lower share of white voters than black voters .
We should emphasize that Biden was much more popular among black voters in the South ( getting between 58 and 72 percent of the black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he won only around a third of black voters in California and Massachusetts .
Sanders , meanwhile , finished ahead of Biden among Hispanic voters in five of the seven states with exit poll results for the group , including delegate-rich Texas and California , though votes are still being counted there .
Sanders won a higher share of the Hispanic vote than the white vote in all seven .
( National polls also generally show Biden stronger with black voters , Sanders with Latino voters . )
White voters , meanwhile , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beat Sanders among white voters in eight of the 15 states for which we have exit poll data , Sanders beat Biden in four , and they were effectively tied in three .
( Sanders was the most popular candidate among Asian Americans in California , the only state where we have vote breakdowns for Asian voters . )
I think the strongest explanation is that when Biden entered the race in April 2019 , he was already polling well with black Democrats , likely because of his close ties to former President @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it might be less that Biden ’ s 2020 campaign has been particularly effective in wooing black voters ( or that other candidates were particularly ineffective ) and more that Biden started off the race with this advantage and did not squander it .
No candidate had such a huge lead with Latino or white voters at the start of the campaign .
So those groups were more up for grabs , and Sanders , as the second-most-successful candidate in this race , made gains with those racial and ethnic groups .
Sanders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Latino voters in Nevada and California in particular , but it also aggressively courted black voters in South Carolina in the 2016 cycle and in the run-up to this year ’ s primary to little avail , facing two candidates ( Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 ) who entered their races with strong black support .
But that ’ s just one theory .
Biden ’ s strength with black Democrats and Sanders ’ s relative strength with Latino Democrats is also probably related to … In general , black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like Biden , and are less likely than Latino or white Democrats to describe their ideology as liberal .
So perhaps black voters , particularly older ones and those in the South , would never have embraced a self-proclaimed Democratic socialist like Sanders .
But we should not overstate this ideological explanation .
Black voters throughout the process have talked about being pragmatic and choosing someone electable to take on President Trump .
That made some of them hesitant to embrace , in particular , Sen. Kamala Harris — many worried that America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ woman of color as president .
But that didn ’ t lead black voters to support other white men , like ex-Rep. Beto O ’ Rourke or former South Bend , Indiana , Mayor Pete Buttigieg .
Indeed , candidates like Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar never gained much traction with black voters even though they , like Biden , ran on center-left policy platforms .
Harris and fellow Sen. Cory Booker ran slightly left of Biden but have similar politics to Obama , and they also struggled to win black support with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ black voters have favorable views of Sanders now and did in 2016 as well , when he lost the black vote overwhelmingly to Clinton .
Remember that Obama himself , running as the outsider-y , left candidate against Clinton , overwhelmingly won black support in 2008 , suggesting that black voters don ’ t always align with the more centrist , establishment candidate .
All of that makes me think some of the story here is simply that Biden is just popular with black voters — particularly older black voters and black voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is probably a result of Biden ’ s personality and history as much or more than his policy stands or ideological positioning .
Sanders does better among younger voters — it ’ s probably the defining characteristic of his coalition .
Biden does better with older voters .
And as groups , relative to the electorate overall , Latino voters tend to skew young and black voters tend to skew old .
The exit polls from the Super Tuesday states for which data is available suggest that about half of Latino voters in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compared to only 33 percent of white voters and 29 percent of black voters .
That said , we know the racial/ethnic split is not simply a product of age .
Biden won every age cohort of black voters except those under age 30 , and Sanders won every age cohort among Hispanics except those over 60 , according to the exit polls .
So what may be going on here is that younger Latino voters and older black voters in particular were more enthusiastic about their candidates and more motivated to turn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of deportations during Obama ’ s tenure in office may mean that having served as his vice president isn ’ t much of a credential to Latino voters .
“ Biden and Sanders both can attribute some of their success with black and Latino voters to Obama , ” said Menlo College ’ s Melissa Michelson , an expert on identity and politics , told me .
She argued that the former president was helping Biden with African Americans but potentially hurting him with Latinos .
I ’ m leery of delving much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ racial/ethinic groups in a short piece , so I will stop there .
There is not necessarily any reason to assume that black and Latino Democrats would support the same candidate , so we shouldn ’ t treat the fact that they ’ re not backing the same person as some huge development .
This difference in racial support is not totally unprecedented — in 2008 , black voters aligned with Obama , Latino voters with Clinton .
( Clinton won both groups against Sanders four years ago . )
But the differences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since Obama is black .
Moreover , many of the states with large black populations that have voted so far are in the South , and those with large Latino populations are mainly in the West , so these results may look different as more states vote .
Also , there ’ s no guarantee that this dynamic will persist — Biden ’ s status as the clear front-runner now may push Latino voters more into his camp .
In any case , watch these numbers in upcoming states — including today ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and his strong numbers with Latino voters early in the process won ’ t add up to any kind of real coalition .
Alternatively , we could be seeing the emergence of something interesting : Latinos mobilizing behind a single candidate in the Democratic primaries the way African Americans did in the 2008 , 2016 and now 2020 primaries .
We haven ’ t really seen that before .

Perry Bacon Jr. (perry.bacon@fivethirtyeight.com)

The 2020 Democratic primary so far has featured an interesting racial breakdown: The party’s black voters have been decidedly with one candidate (former Vice President Joe Biden), its Hispanic voters have been leaning toward another (Sen. Bernie Sanders), and white voters have been more evenly divided between the two. We’ll need more data, polling and election results to know how that’s changed in the wake of Biden’s romp on Super Tuesday — today’s elections will provide some answers — but it’s worth asking why voters split the way they have so far.
Biden has won black voters in nine of the 10 states where exit polls got enough black respondents to offer information about how they voted (he and Sanders were effectively tied in Minnesota). And in nine of those 10 states (all but Massachusetts), Biden won a lower share of white voters than black voters. We should emphasize that Biden was much more popular among black voters in the South (getting between 58 and 72 percent of the black vote in those states), while he won only around a third of black voters in California and Massachusetts. Sanders, meanwhile, finished ahead of Biden among Hispanic voters in five of the seven states with exit poll results for the group, including delegate-rich Texas and California, though votes are still being counted there. Sanders won a higher share of the Hispanic vote than the white vote in all seven. (National polls also generally show Biden stronger with black voters, Sanders with Latino voters.)
White voters, meanwhile, have been pretty equally split. Biden beat Sanders among white voters in eight of the 15 states for which we have exit poll data, Sanders beat Biden in four, and they were effectively tied in three. (Sanders was the most popular candidate among Asian Americans in California, the only state where we have vote breakdowns for Asian voters.)
What explains this dynamic?
I think the strongest explanation is that when Biden entered the race in April 2019, he was already polling well with black Democrats, likely because of his close ties to former President Barack Obama. In other words, it might be less that Biden’s 2020 campaign has been particularly effective in wooing black voters (or that other candidates were particularly ineffective) and more that Biden started off the race with this advantage and did not squander it. No candidate had such a huge lead with Latino or white voters at the start of the campaign. So those groups were more up for grabs, and Sanders, as the second-most-successful candidate in this race, made gains with those racial and ethnic groups. Sanders’s campaign worked hard to organize Latino voters in Nevada and California in particular, but it also aggressively courted black voters in South Carolina in the 2016 cycle and in the run-up to this year’s primary to little avail, facing two candidates (Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016) who entered their races with strong black support.
But that’s just one theory. Biden’s strength with black Democrats and Sanders’s relative strength with Latino Democrats is also probably related to …
Ideology and political attitudes
In general, black voters tend to back establishment candidates, like Biden, and are less likely than Latino or white Democrats to describe their ideology as liberal. So perhaps black voters, particularly older ones and those in the South, would never have embraced a self-proclaimed Democratic socialist like Sanders.
But we should not overstate this ideological explanation. Black voters throughout the process have talked about being pragmatic and choosing someone electable to take on President Trump. That made some of them hesitant to embrace, in particular, Sen. Kamala Harris — many worried that America wasn’t ready to elect a woman of color as president. But that didn’t lead black voters to support other white men, like ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke or former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Indeed, candidates like Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar never gained much traction with black voters even though they, like Biden, ran on center-left policy platforms. Harris and fellow Sen. Cory Booker ran slightly left of Biden but have similar politics to Obama, and they also struggled to win black support with Biden in the race. Polls suggest black voters have favorable views of Sanders now and did in 2016 as well, when he lost the black vote overwhelmingly to Clinton.
Remember that Obama himself, running as the outsider-y, left candidate against Clinton, overwhelmingly won black support in 2008, suggesting that black voters don’t always align with the more centrist, establishment candidate.
All of that makes me think some of the story here is simply that Biden is just popular with black voters — particularly older black voters and black voters in the South. And that popularity is probably a result of Biden’s personality and history as much or more than his policy stands or ideological positioning.
Age
Sanders does better among younger voters — it’s probably the defining characteristic of his coalition. Biden does better with older voters. And as groups, relative to the electorate overall, Latino voters tend to skew young and black voters tend to skew old. The exit polls from the Super Tuesday states for which data is available suggest that about half of Latino voters in those races were under age 45, compared to only 33 percent of white voters and 29 percent of black voters.
That said, we know the racial/ethnic split is not simply a product of age. Biden won every age cohort of black voters except those under age 30, and Sanders won every age cohort among Hispanics except those over 60, according to the exit polls. So what may be going on here is that younger Latino voters and older black voters in particular were more enthusiastic about their candidates and more motivated to turn out to vote.
Immigration policy
The high number of deportations during Obama’s tenure in office may mean that having served as his vice president isn’t much of a credential to Latino voters.
“Biden and Sanders both can attribute some of their success with black and Latino voters to Obama,” said Menlo College’s Melissa Michelson, an expert on identity and politics, told me. She argued that the former president was helping Biden with African Americans but potentially hurting him with Latinos.
I’m leery of delving much deeper into the political attitudes of two racial/ethinic groups in a short piece, so I will stop there. There is not necessarily any reason to assume that black and Latino Democrats would support the same candidate, so we shouldn’t treat the fact that they’re not backing the same person as some huge development. This difference in racial support is not totally unprecedented — in 2008, black voters aligned with Obama, Latino voters with Clinton. (Clinton won both groups against Sanders four years ago.) But the differences in 2008 were easier to explain, since Obama is black.
Moreover, many of the states with large black populations that have voted so far are in the South, and those with large Latino populations are mainly in the West, so these results may look different as more states vote. Also, there’s no guarantee that this dynamic will persist — Biden’s status as the clear front-runner now may push Latino voters more into his camp.
In any case, watch these numbers in upcoming states — including today’s contests. Perhaps Sanders will fade and his strong numbers with Latino voters early in the process won’t add up to any kind of real coalition. Alternatively, we could be seeing the emergence of something interesting: Latinos mobilizing behind a single candidate in the Democratic primaries the way African Americans did in the 2008, 2016 and now 2020 primaries. We haven’t really seen that before.


fivethirtyeight--2020-03-10--What’s At Stake For Sanders In Today’s Primaries?

On March 10 , Michigan , Mississippi , Missouri , Idaho , North Dakota , Washington , and Democrats Abroad @ @ @ @ @ .
Which are the races to watch ?
And what could the results of today @ @ @ @ @ Sen. Bernie Sanders ’ s campaign ?

On March 10, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Idaho, North Dakota, Washington and the Democrats Abroad weigh on the Democratic nomination. Which are the races to watch? And what could the results of today’s primaries mean for Sen. Bernie Sanders’s campaign?