thenation--2020-11-23--For Some Workers, Schools Never Closed

For Some Workers, Schools Never Closed

Before Covid-19 hit Lexington , Mass.
, Amy Morin loved her job helping special needs students at an elementary school .
She still does , but now she also feels a creeping sense of dread .
In many ways , Morin is in the best possible situation : Her school district is relatively affluent , and the infection rate is low .
But her job as a paraeducator constantly brings her into contact with kids , and she fears her face mask and scrubs are inadequate .
When one of her students rushes up to her to whisper that she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guidelines don ’ t really apply .
“ As much as I ’ m like , ‘ Oh , you need to keep your distance ’ —you know , she ’ s 7 , and she has autism , ” she told me .
Personal boundaries are a challenge even without a public health crisis .
“ I ’ m trying to practice good hygiene and stuff , but I am nervous that if she ever were to get sick , because she ’ s just so close to me all the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I wouldn ’ t get sick if she got sick.
” Many classrooms across the country remain fully or partially closed , but for some workers , school has always been in session .
In normal times , they maintain school facilities , assist special needs students , and make sure kids don ’ t go home hungry .
In the middle of a public health crisis , they are now tasked with feeding families or becoming children ’ s closest companions as they adapt to online learning .
Custodians , paraeducators , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are struggling alongside students to adjust to new roles .
They have taken on critical responsibilities , but support staff typically remain at the margins of their local public education systems .
Often , they say , they ’ re expected to provide the kind of support for others that they rarely receive themselves .
“ I feel like educators now are just doing so much more work than they ever have in the past , and it ’ s not sustainable , ” Morin said .
“ There ’ s just so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s not enough self-care to—you can ’ t give from an empty glass.
” Morin ’ s school is operating on a hybrid system , in which students are scheduled for alternating weeks of in-person and online instruction .
But most of her special needs students attend class in person full-time in order to receive supplemental help .
“ The fact that we ’ re in such close proximity to students the entire time , ” she said , “ makes it different than a classroom teacher or even a special ed teacher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a snapshot of their day and not the entire day.
” Although she is a part-time employee , she said , “ I am doing twice as much work as I ’ ve ever done in my whole life , because I ’ m on Zoom with one student while simultaneously supporting a student in class .
And the fatigue and everything else that comes with that is so real.
” Julie Hackett , superintendent of the Lexington school district , said in a statement that school administrators would try to make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a student with disabilities who can not or will not wear a mask , and pointed out that a paraeducator can negotiate to stay home to care for a child .
Susan , a pseudonym to protect her from retaliation , is a paraeducator at a high school in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota and works with English-language learners on the school ’ s hybrid schedule .
With students divided into two groups—attending in-person class on alternating days—she is the primary support worker for the Spanish-speaking students , who must navigate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s National Labor Relations Board Is Sabotaging Its Own Mission Disaster Looms as the Coronavirus Disrupts the Garment Supply Chain Will the Pandemic Lead to Better Treatment for Drug Users ?
“ For a lot of the students that I work with , some of this content is hard , ” Susan told me in an interview for Dissent magazine in October .
“ And maybe they didn ’ t understand the instructions , or they missed a couple years of school in their home country , or for whatever reason , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And now she has to contend with lax adherence to the school ’ s mask-wearing rule .
“ When I went in today , ” she said , “ I was very upset and surprised at how many students continue to wear their masks below their nose , or some , today , blatantly , just weren ’ t wearing one , which is definitely scary .
And we ’ re told over and over , ‘ Make sure you tell students to put on their masks ’ and whatnot .
But I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less .
And I don ’ t know if it ’ s because they feel hopeless , or they feel like it ’ s a losing battle , but that ’ s definitely one of the scary things.
” The Minnesota Department of Education said in a statement that the state has issued an executive order on mask-wearing for all schools , provided face coverings and other protective equipment for all students and staff , and created health guidelines for “ situations where students ( or staff ) may not be able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , medical or behavioral health condition.
” In districts that are only providing virtual classes , paraeducators face different challenges as they try to do onscreen what they ’ re used to doing in person .
According to Marguerite Ruff , a Philadelphia paraeducator for special needs students in grades three through five , “ being online for our population—it takes away from a lot of things , because they get a whole bunch of things in their learning , and not just academics .
When we get back [ to in-person classes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have to work like triple time to make up.
” In an in-person setting , a paraeducator can use “ hand over hand ” techniques to physically guide children through movements and can interact with them face to face , which fosters social-emotional learning that does not translate well over a video call .
“ Some kids can handle a change , ” Ruff said .
“ And there ’ s others that really need that redirection to focus.… They need that personal direction , and not from across a screen , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this is what it is right now.
” Gemayel Keyes , an early childhood paraeducator at a Philadelphia elementary school , said paraeducators are not being given the same support and resources as teachers .
For example , in his class , he is not given access to the supplementary teaching materials and other digital resources that the teacher uses .
“ We ’ re trying to find ways to be assets to our teachers and to our schools , [ but ] it seems like we ’ re the forgotten group by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Keyes told me .
Keyes thinks the transition to virtual learning has been hampered by long-standing problems with the school ’ s technological infrastructure .
“ We ’ ve had years and years and years to get on board with implementing a more digital-friendly way of learning , ” he said .
“ But now…we ’ re getting overloaded with information , and it ’ s very difficult to figure everything out when you ’ re basically building a plane while you ’ re flying it.
” ( The School District of Philadelphia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . )
As a paraeducator of 15 years , Keyes is among the most senior staff at his school , but he said he has never had an opportunity to move up to a teaching position , because his income as a paraeducator—about $ 30,000 a year , just above the median earnings for teachers ’ assistants nationwide—does not allow him to take time off to complete his teacher training .
“ They don ’ t realize that their policies don ’ t make it easy to promote from within.
” A recent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid-19 found that an estimated 42 percent of school employees nationwide were “ at increased risk of severe Covid-19 , ” according to the criteria of the Centers for Disease Control .
But about 58 percent of school support workers in “ low skill ” jobs are at increased risk , in large part because they are more prone to underlying health conditions like obesity , diabetes , or high blood pressure , and also tend to be older .
Yet many school staff in custodial and service roles , known as “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ working inside school buildings , even as teachers , administrative staff , and students have been sheltering at home .
Some have been providing child care in schools , and cafeteria workers have been operating food distribution sites for students who depend on school for daily meals .
Conrado Guerrero , a building engineer with the Los Angeles Unified School District ( LAUSD ) , has been working on school ventilation systems to ensure that schools can mitigate infection risk while in-person classes remain suspended .
He said he worries personally about being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but as president of his union , SEIU Local 99 , he is far more concerned about coworkers with underlying health conditions .
They are being called back to report to work , he said , following the easing of stay-at-home restrictions over the summer , and if they want to stay home as a precaution , they can only use personal paid leave time .
The union , Guerrero said , “ tried to negotiate that they shouldn ’ t even be reporting to the school site , but unfortunately , our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way we could continue [ allowing people to stay home ] without workers using their personal time in order to remain off , if they still felt that it was unsafe for them to be at work.
” Esperanza Hernandez , a LAUSD cafeteria worker who has been reassigned to work at a meal distribution site , said some coworkers are considering retirement because they ’ re afraid to work as Los Angeles faces another wave of infections .
Others are taking a calculated risk .
“ Even if they don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” she said , “ there ’ s a lot of employees that I know that are going back just because they need to go back to work [ for ] the income.
” Though the LAUSD did not respond directly to concerns about worker safety , it said in a statement that LAUSD and other districts planned to eventually reopen schools under a set of common standards , including safety protocols for students and employees , testing at schools , and contact tracing .
In the Bethel School District in Washington state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but nutrition worker Christine Caskey never stopped going to work .
She now helps run a meal distribution program for students and families .
Though classified employees like her have been continually onsite , Caskey said their union ’ s request for hazard pay was denied .
The district administration also rejected the school support workers ’ request to participate alongside teachers in the planning process for reopening schools .
( The Bethel School District did not return a request for comment . )
“ We felt very ignored , ” she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ involved and give our input .
They were not hearing it.
” Despite their ongoing work in the school system while in-person classes were suspended , Caskey said , “ teachers sometimes don ’ t think ‘ classified ’ is as important , because ‘ your job is easy ’ —that ’ s what they might say about me .
But for nutrition , I actually have to take classes .
I have an education that I have to do every year to keep my job .
And so you can ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do it… .
We ’ re looked down upon in those ways.
” SEIU Local 99 has issued demands for safely reopening schools that foreground the needs of LAUSD ’ s classified workers : It has called on the district to ensure proper personal protective equipment for all workers , provide free testing to all staff , expand custodial and maintenance staff to ensuring proper disinfection of school facilities , and , above all , close the funding gaps that have long plagued LA schools .
The union wants California to tax its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for students and staff .
The union says the pandemic and the Black Lives Matter protests this summer should provide an opportunity for cities and school authorities to recognize the value of school support workers—a poverty-wage workforce that is disproportionately comprised of immigrants and people of color .
“ We have to stay vigilant and always ready to organize , ” said Local 99 Executive Director Max Arias , whose great hope is to push the Los Angeles school districts to finally begin “ breaking down some of those structural racist barriers that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also for the people that do the work .
”

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Before Covid-19 hit Lexington, Mass., Amy Morin loved her job helping special needs students at an elementary school. She still does, but now she also feels a creeping sense of dread.
In many ways, Morin is in the best possible situation: Her school district is relatively affluent, and the infection rate is low. But her job as a paraeducator constantly brings her into contact with kids, and she fears her face mask and scrubs are inadequate. When one of her students rushes up to her to whisper that she needs to use the bathroom, social-distancing guidelines don’t really apply.
“As much as I’m like, ‘Oh, you need to keep your distance’—you know, she’s 7, and she has autism,” she told me. Personal boundaries are a challenge even without a public health crisis. “I’m trying to practice good hygiene and stuff, but I am nervous that if she ever were to get sick, because she’s just so close to me all the time, there’s no way that I wouldn’t get sick if she got sick.”
Many classrooms across the country remain fully or partially closed, but for some workers, school has always been in session. In normal times, they maintain school facilities, assist special needs students, and make sure kids don’t go home hungry. In the middle of a public health crisis, they are now tasked with feeding families or becoming children’s closest companions as they adapt to online learning. Custodians, paraeducators, cafeteria workers, and other frontline workers are struggling alongside students to adjust to new roles. They have taken on critical responsibilities, but support staff typically remain at the margins of their local public education systems. Often, they say, they’re expected to provide the kind of support for others that they rarely receive themselves.
“I feel like educators now are just doing so much more work than they ever have in the past, and it’s not sustainable,” Morin said. “There’s just so much to do, and there’s not enough self-care to—you can’t give from an empty glass.”
Virtual Aides
Morin’s school is operating on a hybrid system, in which students are scheduled for alternating weeks of in-person and online instruction. But most of her special needs students attend class in person full-time in order to receive supplemental help.
“The fact that we’re in such close proximity to students the entire time,” she said, “makes it different than a classroom teacher or even a special ed teacher, or a specialist who sees them for a snapshot of their day and not the entire day.” Popular "swipe left below to view more authors"Swipe → The Evisceration of a Public University The Evisceration of a Public University Lisa M. Corrigan The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks Chris Lehmann “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash Dave Zirin How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection Chris Lehmann Popular "swipe left below to view more authors"Swipe → The Evisceration of a Public University The Evisceration of a Public University Lisa M. Corrigan The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks Chris Lehmann “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash Dave Zirin How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection Chris Lehmann Current Issue View our current issue
Although she is a part-time employee, she said, “I am doing twice as much work as I’ve ever done in my whole life, because I’m on Zoom with one student while simultaneously supporting a student in class. And the fatigue and everything else that comes with that is so real.”
Julie Hackett, superintendent of the Lexington school district, said in a statement that school administrators would try to make accommodations to protect staff in the case of a student with disabilities who cannot or will not wear a mask, and pointed out that a paraeducator can negotiate to stay home to care for a child.
Susan, a pseudonym to protect her from retaliation, is a paraeducator at a high school in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota and works with English-language learners on the school’s hybrid schedule. With students divided into two groups—attending in-person class on alternating days—she is the primary support worker for the Spanish-speaking students, who must navigate both technological and language barriers. More From Michelle Chen Starbucks Closes Its Ithaca Locations One Year After Workers Unionized May 25, 2023 Exploiting Prison Workers for Cheap Sheets March 10, 2023 Defund the Police Algorithms August 25, 2022
“For a lot of the students that I work with, some of this content is hard,” Susan told me in an interview for Dissent magazine in October. “And maybe they didn’t understand the instructions, or they missed a couple years of school in their home country, or for whatever reason, they definitely need more one-on-one time.” And now she has to contend with lax adherence to the school’s mask-wearing rule.
“When I went in today,” she said, “I was very upset and surprised at how many students continue to wear their masks below their nose, or some, today, blatantly, just weren’t wearing one, which is definitely scary. And we’re told over and over, ‘Make sure you tell students to put on their masks’ and whatnot. But I see my coworkers doing that less and less. And I don’t know if it’s because they feel hopeless, or they feel like it’s a losing battle, but that’s definitely one of the scary things.”
The Minnesota Department of Education said in a statement that the state has issued an executive order on mask-wearing for all schools, provided face coverings and other protective equipment for all students and staff, and created health guidelines for “situations where students (or staff) may not be able to wear their masks due to a developmental, medical or behavioral health condition.”
In districts that are only providing virtual classes, paraeducators face different challenges as they try to do onscreen what they’re used to doing in person.
According to Marguerite Ruff, a Philadelphia paraeducator for special needs students in grades three through five, “being online for our population—it takes away from a lot of things, because they get a whole bunch of things in their learning, and not just academics. When we get back [to in-person classes], we’re going to have to work like triple time to make up.” In an in-person setting, a paraeducator can use “hand over hand” techniques to physically guide children through movements and can interact with them face to face, which fosters social-emotional learning that does not translate well over a video call.
“Some kids can handle a change,” Ruff said. “And there’s others that really need that redirection to focus.… They need that personal direction, and not from across a screen, but we can’t help it because this is what it is right now.”
Gemayel Keyes, an early childhood paraeducator at a Philadelphia elementary school, said paraeducators are not being given the same support and resources as teachers. For example, in his class, he is not given access to the supplementary teaching materials and other digital resources that the teacher uses. “We’re trying to find ways to be assets to our teachers and to our schools, [but] it seems like we’re the forgotten group by the School District of Philadelphia,” Keyes told me.
Keyes thinks the transition to virtual learning has been hampered by long-standing problems with the school’s technological infrastructure. “We’ve had years and years and years to get on board with implementing a more digital-friendly way of learning,” he said. “But now…we’re getting overloaded with information, and it’s very difficult to figure everything out when you’re basically building a plane while you’re flying it.” (The School District of Philadelphia did not return a request for comment.)
As a paraeducator of 15 years, Keyes is among the most senior staff at his school, but he said he has never had an opportunity to move up to a teaching position, because his income as a paraeducator—about $30,000 a year, just above the median earnings for teachers’ assistants nationwide—does not allow him to take time off to complete his teacher training. “They don’t realize that their policies don’t make it easy to promote from within.”
Keeping Schools Running Without Students
A recent study on school employees’ vulnerability to Covid-19 found that an estimated 42 percent of school employees nationwide were “at increased risk of severe Covid-19,” according to the criteria of the Centers for Disease Control. But about 58 percent of school support workers in “low skill” jobs are at increased risk, in large part because they are more prone to underlying health conditions like obesity, diabetes, or high blood pressure, and also tend to be older.
Yet many school staff in custodial and service roles, known as “classified employees,” have been consistently working inside school buildings, even as teachers, administrative staff, and students have been sheltering at home. Some have been providing child care in schools, and cafeteria workers have been operating food distribution sites for students who depend on school for daily meals.
Conrado Guerrero, a building engineer with the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD), has been working on school ventilation systems to ensure that schools can mitigate infection risk while in-person classes remain suspended. He said he worries personally about being exposed to infection on the job, but as president of his union, SEIU Local 99, he is far more concerned about coworkers with underlying health conditions. They are being called back to report to work, he said, following the easing of stay-at-home restrictions over the summer, and if they want to stay home as a precaution, they can only use personal paid leave time.
The union, Guerrero said, “tried to negotiate that they shouldn’t even be reporting to the school site, but unfortunately, our state of emergency ended and…there was no way we could continue [allowing people to stay home] without workers using their personal time in order to remain off, if they still felt that it was unsafe for them to be at work.”
Esperanza Hernandez, a LAUSD cafeteria worker who has been reassigned to work at a meal distribution site, said some coworkers are considering retirement because they’re afraid to work as Los Angeles faces another wave of infections. Others are taking a calculated risk. “Even if they don’t feel comfortable going back to work,” she said, “there’s a lot of employees that I know that are going back just because they need to go back to work [for] the income.” Related Article Will Public Schools Survive Covid-19? Belle Chesler
Though the LAUSD did not respond directly to concerns about worker safety, it said in a statement that LAUSD and other districts planned to eventually reopen schools under a set of common standards, including safety protocols for students and employees, testing at schools, and contact tracing.
In the Bethel School District in Washington state, students are still doing virtual learning, but nutrition worker Christine Caskey never stopped going to work. She now helps run a meal distribution program for students and families. Though classified employees like her have been continually onsite, Caskey said their union’s request for hazard pay was denied. The district administration also rejected the school support workers’ request to participate alongside teachers in the planning process for reopening schools. (The Bethel School District did not return a request for comment.)
“We felt very ignored,” she said. “We tried to be involved and give our input. They were not hearing it.”
Despite their ongoing work in the school system while in-person classes were suspended, Caskey said, “teachers sometimes don’t think ‘classified’ is as important, because ‘your job is easy’—that’s what they might say about me. But for nutrition, I actually have to take classes. I have an education that I have to do every year to keep my job. And so you can’t just pull anybody off the street to do it…. We’re looked down upon in those ways.”
SEIU Local 99 has issued demands for safely reopening schools that foreground the needs of LAUSD’s classified workers: It has called on the district to ensure proper personal protective equipment for all workers, provide free testing to all staff, expand custodial and maintenance staff to ensuring proper disinfection of school facilities, and, above all, close the funding gaps that have long plagued LA schools. The union wants California to tax its billionaires to help pay for safe environments for students and staff.
The union says the pandemic and the Black Lives Matter protests this summer should provide an opportunity for cities and school authorities to recognize the value of school support workers—a poverty-wage workforce that is disproportionately comprised of immigrants and people of color.
“We have to stay vigilant and always ready to organize,” said Local 99 Executive Director Max Arias, whose great hope is to push the Los Angeles school districts to finally begin “breaking down some of those structural racist barriers that exist within education—not only for the students…but also for the people that do the work.”


thenation--2020-11-23--The Olympic Machine Meets With Protest in Tokyo

It was a bizarre attempt at normality in highly abnormal times .
Thomas Bach , the president of the International Olympic Committee , visited Tokyo last week for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic throttled Japan .
In a highly scripted set of photo-ops throughout Tokyo , Bach projected a brand of buoyant optimism untroubled by the precariousness of our collective historical moment .
Bach vowed that the Tokyo Olympics in the shadow of the coronavirus would “ be a light at the end of the dark tunnel.
” But anti-Olympics activists in Japan ’ s capital were not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them , the “ light at the end of the dark tunnel ” is a gold-plated freight train careening toward their city .
Protesters followed Bach around town , highlighting the absurdity of staging a wholly optional sports spectacle in the midst of a savage pandemic .
Back in March , in response to the initial explosion of Covid-19 , the IOC and local Olympic organizers in Tokyo postponed the 2020 Summer Games .
While other sports leagues slammed on the brakes , the IOC dragged its feet , with its president justifying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was relying on Donald Trump ’ s baseless public assurances that the pandemic would blow over by mid-April .
Were it not for an upsurge of athletes and sports federations expressing concern and threatening to boycott , the IOC may well have plowed forward , public health be damned .
Protests were organized by the Tokyo-based activist umbrella group called Okotowari ( loosely translated as “ No thank you , Olympics ” ) and the grassroots collective Hangorin No Kai ( “ the Anti-Olympic Group ” ) .
Simultaneous satellite demonstrations took place @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sapporo , and Fukushima .
To mark Bach ’ s arrival in Tokyo , anti-Olympics activists took to the streets with signs reading “ Cancellation !
Abolition !
, ” “ Go to Hell !
, ” and “ Protect your life from the Olympics !
” Activists questioned using trailer-loads of public money to keep the Olympics on life support while actual humans might require such measures .
One clarion call from the streets of Tokyo was “ Save lives , not the Olympics !
” Originally slated to cost $ 7.3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tag has spiraled to nearly four times that , according to an audit by the Japanese government , with all but around $ 5 billion coming from public coffers .
With postponement , the five-ring bill continues to mount .
Activists dogged Bach as he made his way around Tokyo .
They appeared outside the Tokyo Metropolitan Government headquarters in Shinjuku , chanting , “ Abolish IOC !
” and “ No Olympics anywhere !
” Protesters also flew banners at the new National Stadium that was built for the Olympics .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ complex , fracturing the working-class community in the shadow of the stadium .
Amazingly , some people who were displaced by the Olympic juggernaut in 2020 also lost their homes because of the 1964 Tokyo Games .
At the Tokyo Metropolitan Government headquarters , the IOC president broke from his security phalanx to confront the protesters , asking them , “ Do you want to speak or just shout at me ?
” Bach was quickly whisked away and no discussion transpired .
At a press conference afterward , journalist Kosuke Inagaki of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Bach responded , smirking all the while , by inaccurately minimizing the number of activists— “ It was three people in front of the hall with a great megaphone ” —and claiming that “ I wanted to listen ” but “ they were shouting at me.
” Referring to one protester with a megaphone , he stated , “ Obviously she did not want to have a dialogue , so she could not explain to me what she really wanted .
She just kept shouting at me.
” He concluded by asking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people who just keep shouting through a megaphone at you ?
” Bach was referring to Misako Ichimura , a longtime anti-Olympics activist with Hangorin No Kai .
She told The Nation , “ First of all , I wasn ’ t shouting .
When Bach approached me , I was about to turn toward him , but I was surrounded and held by police officers.
” Ichimura said that from her vantage , “ Bach ’ s impatience was clearly evident.
” She added , “ To say I didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This is exactly what the Olympics does—it uses ‘ fair play ’ to hide privilege and power.
” She ’ s right .
Bach ’ s impromptu plea for “ dialogue ” deliberately obscures power relations .
After all , activists in Tokyo have never been given the opportunity to sit down with Olympic grandees to “ have a dialogue.
” For five-ring power brokers , boxing out critical voices has almost become an Olympic sport .
Most people in Japan have moved toward the position of anti-Olympics activists .
Hiroki Ogasawara , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at Kobe University in Japan , told us , “ People here are already disillusioned , not only by the long-promoted promise and prospect of Olympics but also by confusing words and comments by officials , including Bach himself.
” This month , a poll by TV Asahi found that almost 60 percent wanted the Tokyo Olympics to be either postponed or canceled .
Last summer , a Kyodo News poll found that only 24 percent of respondents were keen to hold the Tokyo Games as rescheduled for July 2021 .
Around 36 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ postponed and 34 percent preferred outright cancellation .
A survey of almost 13,000 Japanese companies had similar results , with 26 percent favoring postponement and 28 percent preferring cancellation—staggering numbers given that the Olympics are a profit magnet for many businesses .
Meanwhile , Olympic power brokers ram ahead like somnambulistic zealots under the spell of dollars and yen .
For them , the front-of-the-mind concern is always the Olympic machine and its component parts , not the host city .
The IOC president stated the quiet part out loud when he asserted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Tokyo Olympics continues to be the health and safety of Olympic athletes as well as ticket holders .
Not mentioned ?
The everyday people in Tokyo whose health could be jeopardized by Olympics-going tourists from coronavirus-soaked countries like the United States .
IOC honcho John Coates , the Australian who chairs the IOC Coordination Commission for the Tokyo Games , followed Bach ’ s lead , stating , “ We have to make sure the Village is the safest place in Tokyo.
” The IOC ’ s priorities are clear .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nightmares , Bach insisted that the Games could still happen with stadiums full of spectators .
The Japan Times reported , “ Organizers are moving forward in lockstep with plans to host the postponed Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games next summer with spectators.
” For Olympic organizers , the only question that remains is how many fans .
Olympic exceptionalism is a hell of a drug .
But it can ’ t compete with the coronavirus .
On the day Bach left town , Tokyo saw a surge in infections , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city and around 2,000 across Japan .
Both were single-day records .
“ The situation in Tokyo is serious , ” Satoko Itani , a professor of sports , gender , and sexuality studies at Kansai University in Japan , told us .
“ Bringing tens of thousands of people to Japan for the Olympics will risk not only further spreading the virus but also stressing the medical workers who have been asked to volunteer for Tokyo 2020 because the Olympics are scheduled for the hottest part of summer.
” Beneath all the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ faces a very simple question : people or profits .
It ’ s in the best interests of the people to postpone the Olympics until a vaccine has made its way through the population .
It ’ s in the best interests of the Olympic profit machine to push ahead with the Games , people be damned .

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It was a bizarre attempt at normality in highly abnormal times. Thomas Bach, the president of the International Olympic Committee, visited Tokyo last week for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic throttled Japan. In a highly scripted set of photo-ops throughout Tokyo, Bach projected a brand of buoyant optimism untroubled by the precariousness of our collective historical moment.
Bach vowed that the Tokyo Olympics in the shadow of the coronavirus would “be a light at the end of the dark tunnel.” But anti-Olympics activists in Japan’s capital were not buying Bach’s sophistry. For them, the “light at the end of the dark tunnel” is a gold-plated freight train careening toward their city. Protesters followed Bach around town, highlighting the absurdity of staging a wholly optional sports spectacle in the midst of a savage pandemic.
Back in March, in response to the initial explosion of Covid-19, the IOC and local Olympic organizers in Tokyo postponed the 2020 Summer Games. While other sports leagues slammed on the brakes, the IOC dragged its feet, with its president justifying the slow-motion response by admitting that he was relying on Donald Trump’s baseless public assurances that the pandemic would blow over by mid-April. Were it not for an upsurge of athletes and sports federations expressing concern and threatening to boycott, the IOC may well have plowed forward, public health be damned.
Protests were organized by the Tokyo-based activist umbrella group called Okotowari (loosely translated as “No thank you, Olympics”) and the grassroots collective Hangorin No Kai (“the Anti-Olympic Group”). Simultaneous satellite demonstrations took place in Kyoto as well as Okinawa, Sapporo, and Fukushima. To mark Bach’s arrival in Tokyo, anti-Olympics activists took to the streets with signs reading “Cancellation! Abolition!,” “Go to Hell!,” and “Protect your life from the Olympics!”
Activists questioned using trailer-loads of public money to keep the Olympics on life support while actual humans might require such measures. One clarion call from the streets of Tokyo was “Save lives, not the Olympics!” Originally slated to cost $7.3 billion, the Tokyo Games’ price tag has spiraled to nearly four times that, according to an audit by the Japanese government, with all but around $5 billion coming from public coffers. With postponement, the five-ring bill continues to mount. Popular "swipe left below to view more authors"Swipe → The Evisceration of a Public University The Evisceration of a Public University Lisa M. Corrigan The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks Chris Lehmann “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash Dave Zirin How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection Chris Lehmann Popular "swipe left below to view more authors"Swipe → The Evisceration of a Public University The Evisceration of a Public University Lisa M. Corrigan The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks Chris Lehmann “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash Dave Zirin How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection Chris Lehmann
Activists dogged Bach as he made his way around Tokyo. They appeared outside the Tokyo Metropolitan Government headquarters in Shinjuku, chanting, “Abolish IOC!” and “No Olympics anywhere!” Protesters also flew banners at the new National Stadium that was built for the Olympics. The stadium displaced residents from the Kasumigaoka apartment complex, fracturing the working-class community in the shadow of the stadium. Amazingly, some people who were displaced by the Olympic juggernaut in 2020 also lost their homes because of the 1964 Tokyo Games.
At the Tokyo Metropolitan Government headquarters, the IOC president broke from his security phalanx to confront the protesters, asking them, “Do you want to speak or just shout at me?” Bach was quickly whisked away and no discussion transpired. At a press conference afterward, journalist Kosuke Inagaki of Asahi Shimbun asked Bach about the skirmish. Bach responded, smirking all the while, by inaccurately minimizing the number of activists—“It was three people in front of the hall with a great megaphone”—and claiming that “I wanted to listen” but “they were shouting at me.” Referring to one protester with a megaphone, he stated, “Obviously she did not want to have a dialogue, so she could not explain to me what she really wanted. She just kept shouting at me.” He concluded by asking, “How can you talk to people who just keep shouting through a megaphone at you?” Current Issue View our current issue
Bach was referring to Misako Ichimura, a longtime anti-Olympics activist with Hangorin No Kai. She told The Nation, “First of all, I wasn’t shouting. When Bach approached me, I was about to turn toward him, but I was surrounded and held by police officers.” Ichimura said that from her vantage, “Bach’s impatience was clearly evident.” She added, “To say I didn’t choose dialogue is not entirely fair. This is exactly what the Olympics does—it uses ‘fair play’ to hide privilege and power.” She’s right. Bach’s impromptu plea for “dialogue” deliberately obscures power relations. After all, activists in Tokyo have never been given the opportunity to sit down with Olympic grandees to “have a dialogue.” For five-ring power brokers, boxing out critical voices has almost become an Olympic sport.
Most people in Japan have moved toward the position of anti-Olympics activists. Hiroki Ogasawara, a professor of sociology and cultural studies at Kobe University in Japan, told us, “People here are already disillusioned, not only by the long-promoted promise and prospect of Olympics but also by confusing words and comments by officials, including Bach himself.”
This month, a poll by TV Asahi found that almost 60 percent wanted the Tokyo Olympics to be either postponed or canceled. Last summer, a Kyodo News poll found that only 24 percent of respondents were keen to hold the Tokyo Games as rescheduled for July 2021. Around 36 percent thought the Games should be further postponed and 34 percent preferred outright cancellation. A survey of almost 13,000 Japanese companies had similar results, with 26 percent favoring postponement and 28 percent preferring cancellation—staggering numbers given that the Olympics are a profit magnet for many businesses.
Meanwhile, Olympic power brokers ram ahead like somnambulistic zealots under the spell of dollars and yen. For them, the front-of-the-mind concern is always the Olympic machine and its component parts, not the host city. The IOC president stated the quiet part out loud when he asserted that the “top priority” for the Tokyo Olympics continues to be the health and safety of Olympic athletes as well as ticket holders. Not mentioned? The everyday people in Tokyo whose health could be jeopardized by Olympics-going tourists from coronavirus-soaked countries like the United States. IOC honcho John Coates, the Australian who chairs the IOC Coordination Commission for the Tokyo Games, followed Bach’s lead, stating, “We have to make sure the Village is the safest place in Tokyo.” The IOC’s priorities are clear.
In the kind of remark that gives epidemiologists nightmares, Bach insisted that the Games could still happen with stadiums full of spectators. The Japan Times reported, “Organizers are moving forward in lockstep with plans to host the postponed Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games next summer with spectators.” For Olympic organizers, the only question that remains is how many fans.
Olympic exceptionalism is a hell of a drug. But it can’t compete with the coronavirus. On the day Bach left town, Tokyo saw a surge in infections, with nearly 500 new cases reported in the city and around 2,000 across Japan. Both were single-day records. “The situation in Tokyo is serious,” Satoko Itani, a professor of sports, gender, and sexuality studies at Kansai University in Japan, told us. “Bringing tens of thousands of people to Japan for the Olympics will risk not only further spreading the virus but also stressing the medical workers who have been asked to volunteer for Tokyo 2020 because the Olympics are scheduled for the hottest part of summer.” Beneath all the Olympic bombast spouted by Back, Tokyo faces a very simple question: people or profits. It’s in the best interests of the people to postpone the Olympics until a vaccine has made its way through the population. It’s in the best interests of the Olympic profit machine to push ahead with the Games, people be damned.


thenation--2020-11-23--Trump Is Blowing Up the Georgia GOP—and It Couldn’t Happen at a Better Time

Never underestimate the capacity of Republicans to put aside differences and “ come home ” just before an election , but right now I ’ d say Donald Trump ’ s insults and demands that Georgia Republicans somehow overturn Joe Biden ’ s stunning if narrow win there—after they certified it on Friday—is inflicting genuine damage to the campaigns of GOP Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue .
That hasn ’ t stopped either senator from backing Trump ; Loeffler and Perdue even demanded Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger ’ s resignation merely for his expressing confidence in the state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s apparent win ( even as he took the extra step of authorizing a hand recount ; only an audit of selected counties was required by law , once the vote came within the margin requiring that ) .
But the divisions in the party could cost them both votes in the January 5 runoff .
They ’ re also taking headlines away from Loeffler ’ s crazy racist campaign to turn the Rev .
Raphael Warnock , her opponent , into a junior Jeremiah Wright , and Jon Ossoff , Perdue ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for supporting Warnock .
The weekend saw wild demonstrations by Trump supporters against Governor Brian Kemp and Raffensperger—and implicitly against Perdue and Loeffler , who are increasingly perceived by hard-core Trumpists as not doing enough to aid Trump .
On Saturday in Atlanta , hundreds gathered for a “ Stop the Steal ” rally where a man in a MAGA cap called Kemp and Raffensperger “ traitors ” and added , “ Any Republican who allows this to happen is complicit and we will finish you !
” ( I ’ m sure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put on a camouflage sweatshirt adorned with an elephant , and someone in the crowd shouted , “ Death to tyrants !
” ) He added , “ We will do whatever it takes to completely destroy the Republican Party.
” On Saturday , Trump tweeted support for the rally , while his Georgia attorney , L. Lin Wood , urged state Republicans to boycott the Senate runoff .
“ Want to get @ SenLoeffler & @ sendavidperdue out of their basements to demand that action must be taken to fix steal of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ asked on Twitter .
“ Threaten to withhold your votes & money .
Demand that they represent you.
” That wasn ’ t quite as bad as Trump attorney Sidney Powell ’ s claim that Kemp and Raffensperger had been paid off by Dominion Voting Systems Corporation , the manufacturer of the state ’ s voting machines , to throw the race to Biden .
( On Sunday Trump ’ s team belatedly cut ties with the loony Powell ; no such word about Lin Wood . )
Meanwhile on Parler , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ amplified Wood ’ s call .
You hate to see it .
But Raffensperger , in particular , has been surprisingly aggressive punching back at Trump , as well as Loeffler and Perdue , who he said “ folded like cheap suits ” to Trump by demanding his resignation .
He even accused Trump of causing his own Georgia loss by undermining GOP voters ’ confidence in absentee balloting .
“ There were actually 24,000 Republican voters that voted absentee in the June primary , and those same 24,000 voters did not show @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in-person on the day of [ the November 3 ] election or the 15 days of early voting we have , ” he said , in an interview with Peacock ’ s Mehdi Hasan .
“ They were there in June for the primary and they should have come home and voted for President Trump in the fall .
So that ’ s 24,000 .
That ’ s his difference right there.
” Raffensperger and other state Republican election officials have reported death threats since the recount found that Biden won .
Other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are publicly warning that Trump ’ s futile “ stolen election ” crusade could similarly discourage absentee voting in the recount as well as demoralize his hard-core Georgia supporters .
Kemp has tried to split the difference , certifying the state ’ s election results but backing Trump ’ s call for an audit that would examine not just ballots but also the signatures on the envelopes containing the ballots .
As the former secretary of state no doubt knows , that ’ s impossible ; Georgia officials closely match those signatures to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the envelopes , in order to protect ballot secrecy .
Trump ’ s legal team is making the same impossible demand .
Nevertheless , the Trump team continues to attack Kemp , who is walking a tightrope , knowing he ’ s likely to be facing a rematch with Stacey Abrams , Georgia ’ s champion of voting rights , whose efforts are widely credited with helping Biden take the state .
He either alienates Trump voters ( and judging by the rallies over the weekend , he already has ) or energizes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mobilized—on behalf of Warnock and Perdue in January , and perhaps Abrams the following November .
On the other hand , The New York Times reported Monday that more than 100 CEOs have signed a letter asking Trump to concede to President-elect Joe Biden—and one form of leverage they ’ ve discussed is withholding donations to Loeffler and Perdue .
Now Trump is apparently going to see Biden win a third time , having asked for and received another recount even after Kemp certified the vote , after the hand recount confirmed that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expects the outcome to change ; this recount merely retabulates ballots by machine , not by a meticulous hand count .
( Checking the history books to see if any presidential candidate has won the same state three times in the same election . )
It ’ s been encouraging to see Raffensperger and other Georgia Republicans , conservative Republicans all , stand up to Trump and his enablers .
I confess that earlier in his term , I naively expected to see some backbone from congressional GOP leaders in rebuking Trump—either after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or in 2019 , after the Democratic midterm landslide .
It would be the greatest justice ( and thrill ) if Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell ’ s ruinous Trump fealty wound up costing Loeffler and Perdue their Senate seats , making him Senate minority leader .
I don ’ t expect that ; I ’ m no longer so naive .
Georgia Democrats are still going to have to fight like hell for every vote .
But it ’ s safe to say the Georgia GOP would rather not be spending this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one another instead of for votes .

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Never underestimate the capacity of Republicans to put aside differences and “come home” just before an election, but right now I’d say Donald Trump’s insults and demands that Georgia Republicans somehow overturn Joe Biden’s stunning if narrow win there—after they certified it on Friday—is inflicting genuine damage to the campaigns of GOP Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.
That hasn’t stopped either senator from backing Trump; Loeffler and Perdue even demanded Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s resignation merely for his expressing confidence in the state’s election integrity after Biden’s apparent win (even as he took the extra step of authorizing a hand recount; only an audit of selected counties was required by law, once the vote came within the margin requiring that). But the divisions in the party could cost them both votes in the January 5 runoff. They’re also taking headlines away from Loeffler’s crazy racist campaign to turn the Rev. Raphael Warnock, her opponent, into a junior Jeremiah Wright, and Jon Ossoff, Perdue’s opponent, into a Jewish anti-Semite for supporting Warnock.
The weekend saw wild demonstrations by Trump supporters against Governor Brian Kemp and Raffensperger—and implicitly against Perdue and Loeffler, who are increasingly perceived by hard-core Trumpists as not doing enough to aid Trump. On Saturday in Atlanta, hundreds gathered for a “Stop the Steal” rally where a man in a MAGA cap called Kemp and Raffensperger “traitors” and added, “Any Republican who allows this to happen is complicit and we will finish you!” (I’m sure he meant electorally, though he did put on a camouflage sweatshirt adorned with an elephant, and someone in the crowd shouted, “Death to tyrants!”) He added, “We will do whatever it takes to completely destroy the Republican Party.”
On Saturday, Trump tweeted support for the rally, while his Georgia attorney, L. Lin Wood, urged state Republicans to boycott the Senate runoff. “Want to get @SenLoeffler & @sendavidperdue out of their basements to demand that action must be taken to fix steal of the 11/3 GA election?” Wood asked on Twitter. “Threaten to withhold your votes & money. Demand that they represent you.” That wasn’t quite as bad as Trump attorney Sidney Powell’s claim that Kemp and Raffensperger had been paid off by Dominion Voting Systems Corporation, the manufacturer of the state’s voting machines, to throw the race to Biden. (On Sunday Trump’s team belatedly cut ties with the loony Powell; no such word about Lin Wood.) Popular "swipe left below to view more authors"Swipe → The Evisceration of a Public University The Evisceration of a Public University Lisa M. Corrigan The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks Chris Lehmann “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash Dave Zirin How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection Chris Lehmann Popular "swipe left below to view more authors"Swipe → The Evisceration of a Public University The Evisceration of a Public University Lisa M. Corrigan The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks Chris Lehmann “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash Dave Zirin How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection Chris Lehmann
Meanwhile on Parler, the wing nut alternative to Twitter, Trumpers amplified Wood’s call.
You hate to see it.
But Raffensperger, in particular, has been surprisingly aggressive punching back at Trump, as well as Loeffler and Perdue, who he said “folded like cheap suits” to Trump by demanding his resignation. He even accused Trump of causing his own Georgia loss by undermining GOP voters’ confidence in absentee balloting.
“There were actually 24,000 Republican voters that voted absentee in the June primary, and those same 24,000 voters did not show up to vote in either absentee or in-person on the day of [the November 3] election or the 15 days of early voting we have,” he said, in an interview with Peacock’s Mehdi Hasan. “They were there in June for the primary and they should have come home and voted for President Trump in the fall. So that’s 24,000. That’s his difference right there.” Raffensperger and other state Republican election officials have reported death threats since the recount found that Biden won. Other Republicans, including pollster Frank Luntz, are publicly warning that Trump’s futile “stolen election” crusade could similarly discourage absentee voting in the recount as well as demoralize his hard-core Georgia supporters.
Kemp has tried to split the difference, certifying the state’s election results but backing Trump’s call for an audit that would examine not just ballots but also the signatures on the envelopes containing the ballots. As the former secretary of state no doubt knows, that’s impossible; Georgia officials closely match those signatures to registration records, but then toss aside the envelopes, in order to protect ballot secrecy. Trump’s legal team is making the same impossible demand.
Nevertheless, the Trump team continues to attack Kemp, who is walking a tightrope, knowing he’s likely to be facing a rematch with Stacey Abrams, Georgia’s champion of voting rights, whose efforts are widely credited with helping Biden take the state. He either alienates Trump voters (and judging by the rallies over the weekend, he already has) or energizes the massive electorate Abrams and others have mobilized—on behalf of Warnock and Ossoff in January, and perhaps Abrams the following November.
On the other hand, The New York Times reported Monday that more than 100 CEOs have signed a letter asking Trump to concede to President-elect Joe Biden—and one form of leverage they’ve discussed is withholding donations to Loeffler and Perdue.
Now Trump is apparently going to see Biden win a third time, having asked for and received another recount even after Kemp certified the vote, after the hand recount confirmed that Biden won. Nobody except wing nuts expects the outcome to change; this recount merely retabulates ballots by machine, not by a meticulous hand count. (Checking the history books to see if any presidential candidate has won the same state three times in the same election.)
It’s been encouraging to see Raffensperger and other Georgia Republicans, conservative Republicans all, stand up to Trump and his enablers. I confess that earlier in his term, I naively expected to see some backbone from congressional GOP leaders in rebuking Trump—either after his regime began its compulsive law-breaking, or in 2019, after the Democratic midterm landslide. It would be the greatest justice (and thrill) if Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell’s ruinous Trump fealty wound up costing Loeffler and Perdue their Senate seats, making him Senate minority leader.
I don’t expect that; I’m no longer so naive. Georgia Democrats are still going to have to fight like hell for every vote. But it’s safe to say the Georgia GOP would rather not be spending this short sprint to a runoff fighting with one another instead of for votes.


thenation--2020-11-23--Democrats No Longer Have a Coalition

Democrats No Longer Have a Coalition

In 2008 , Barack Obama was widely described as having built a game-changing political coalition : young people , racial and ethnic minorities , educated professionals , urban and suburban voters .
He was held to have built an innovative campaign infrastructure , leveraging big data and social media in an unprecedented way , increasing turnout and Democratic vote share with constituencies that are typically underrepresented at the ballot box .
All of this was thought to not only benefit Obama but also the party writ large .
Indeed , in the wake of the 2008 election , Democrats had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over both chambers of Congress .
At the state level , they held governorships in 29 states and controlled both chambers in 27 state legislatures .
For contrast , Republicans controlled just 14 state legislatures and 21 governorships .
Many went so far as to believe that the Obama coalition heralded the arrival of a long-prophesied enduring Democratic majority in US politics .
They were wrong .
In 2010 , Democrats lost control of the House in the most sweeping congressional reversal in 62 years .
They also saw huge losses in state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the decennial post-Census redistricting to an unprecedented degree .
In 2014 , Democrats would go on to lose the Senate .
And of course , two years later , they would lose the presidency as well .
The party saw massive losses in state contests too .
As Trump assumed office in 2016 , Republicans controlled both chambers of the US Congress , both chambers in 32 state legislatures , and held 33 governorships .
Under Trump , the GOP would come to dominate the courts too .
Roughly one-quarter of all active @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were also able to place three Supreme Court justices over the course of Trump ’ s term—leaving a 6-3 conservative majority that is likely to endure for some time .
Fortunately , parties virtually always lose seats in the House during their inaugural midterms .
The GOP was no exception in 2018 .
Although the Republican Party ’ s losses were almost exactly average for an inaugural midterm , it was enough to flip the House to the Democrats .
In 2020 , another key win : Joe Biden managed to unseat Donald @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presidency in January 2021 .
Yet the Democratic Party finds itself in an overall weaker position than before the election .
Democrats lost seats in the House—putting them on track to lose the chamber outright in 2022 .
They may fail to take control of the Senate .
They lost one governorship .
The Democratic Party also saw continued erosion in state legislatures , leaving the GOP in a dominant position once again with respect to post-Census redistricting .
According to FiveThirtyEight estimates , Republicans will control redistricting for roughly 43 percent of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will have comparable control over a mere 17 percent of seats .
This is no small loss , as these maps will govern elections through 2030 .
In short , although Barack Obama was fond of describing himself and his allies as being on the “ right side of history ” —and implying that his opponents were consigned to its dustbin—history seems to have had other ideas .
But whatever happened to the Obama coalition ?
What went wrong with the emerging Democratic majority ?
To help answer this question , I compared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ groups over the past 16 years .
One thing that struck me looking at exit poll data—especially comparing the margins between Democrats and Republicans across time for different constituencies—is that parabolas seemed to emerge in the data over and over again .
The numbers would go up or down significantly , only to return to some historical baseline .
Visualizing the data confirmed this suspicion .
For African Americans , racial “ others , ” Protestants , and non-religious people , the trajectory was a consistent decline in allegiance to the Democratic Party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to their 2004 levels of support .
However , some groups followed a slightly different path to this same destination .
For instance , Democrats saw declines with whites , men , senior citizens ( voters 65 and older ) and rural voters to below their 2004 baselines over the course of the Obama and Trump administrations , but their margins shifted back to their pre-Obama positions in 2020 .
Across the board , however , the entire Obama and Trump administrations essentially ended in an electoral wash with all of these groups @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remain a key focal point—and any changes after 2008 seemed to have been erased by the end of this cycle .
For example , Hispanics , Asians , and Catholics shifted still further toward the Democrats after 2008 .
However , virtually all of these gains have been erased in the intervening years as well .
The silver lining is that while the declines among Hispanic and Asian voters have been significant over the last eight years , Democrats ’ margins with these voters remain significantly above the pre-Obama period .
Of course @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could see continued losses with Hispanics , Asians , and Catholics down the line—but for now , their margins have merely shifted to their 2008 levels .
Others followed the opposite trajectory .
For instance , women moved slightly toward the GOP in 2012 , but shifted back towards the Democrats over the next two cycles .
Meanwhile , city-dwellers , Catholics , voters aged 30–64 , and those with some college ( but no degree ) all shifted significantly toward the GOP from 2008 through 2016 .
However , they all returned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Movements in LGBTQ vote share , on the other hand , are highly unusual as compared to most other groups .
Rather than reacting to the arrival of Obama or Trump on the political scene , LGBTQ voters seem to be responding to different factors than the rest of the electorate .
In any case , from the data we have explored so far , it may seem difficult to understand how Biden could have won in 2020 .
Yes , Democrats roughly matched their 2008 vote share with many groups .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ worse position with a number of core constituencies , including whites , African Americans , racial “ others , ” and LGBTQ voters .
Democrats ’ margins for those earning less than $ 30k per year also continued dropping every year from 2008 through 2020 .
Obama won these voters by 33 percentage points in 2008 .
By 2020 , Democrats ’ lead was down to 8 points .
Fortunately , many other voters seem to have been so alienated by Trump that they shifted significantly toward the Democratic Party from 2016 through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per year ) , suburbanites , and college grads all moved dramatically away from the GOP under Trump .
This should not be particularly surprising , as these voters more than others value things like decorum , civility , and political correctness .
They want the president to be “ presidential.
” Trump clearly was not .
But of course , to the extent that aesthetics drove these defections , many could end up shifting back to the GOP were the party to put someone more “ respectable ” on the ballot down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 100k per year were initially so put off by Trump that they shifted toward Democrats in 2016 to a degree that was without recent historical precedent .
However , by 2020 they were back to voting their pocketbooks , supporting Trump at roughly the same levels they supported Mitt Romney in 2012 .
Post-Trump , the whole constellation of bourgeois voters could follow suit .
Similar dynamics seem to be at work with respect to moderate and Independent voters .
Democrats ’ 2020 margin with independents was their best for any presidential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1972 ( when these records begin ) .
Overall , it was the largest margin among independents that either party has won in a presidential cycle since 1984 .
Their margins with moderates were also historic—not just among Democrats , but for either party—going all the way back to 1972 .
However , given that these voters are not firm partisans , many seem to have voted for GOP candidates down-ballot—leading to a situation where Biden won the presidency by at least 6 million votes even as his party saw significant losses in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cycles , it is likely many of these moderate and independent voters will cast ballots for a Republican president as well .
They clearly seem to have been rejecting Trump rather than embracing the Democratic Party .
Young people , meanwhile , increasingly drifted from the Democratic Party over the course of the Obama administration .
However , in apparent reaction to Trump , a new generation began to support the Democrats more robustly .
The party even slightly exceeded Obama ’ s 2008 margins during the 2018 midterms .
However , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden : Democratic vote share with 18-to-29-year-old voters has already begun to significantly decline .
In short , many of the groups that were key to Biden ’ s 2020 victory do not seem to be part of an enduring coalition .
They sought to oust Trump .
With that accomplished , a large share are likely to shift back to the GOP in coming cycles .
Indeed , this is precisely what happened after 2008 .
Suburbanites , middle-income earners and college-educated voters were widely described as core constituents of the Obama @ @ @ @ @ @ @ premature .
As the chart above shows , all of these groups shifted significantly toward the Republicans after Obama took office—and continued to favor the GOP through the rest of his tenure .
That is , although these voters did indeed shift toward Democrats in 2008 , they did not seem to be big fans of the Obama administration in subsequent years .
They could well respond to Biden in kind .
Democrats , then , find themselves in a precarious position .
Many of the constituencies held to be central to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the party .
Even under Trump , Democrats ’ erosion among minority voters has continued unabated .
They are seeing consistent attrition among people of faith too—not just with Christians , but also Muslims , Jews and other believers .
The energy the party built with young people in 2018 already seems to be fading .
However , Democrats have not pulled in new constituencies to offset the declining allegiance of these voters .
Instead , many of those who helped Democrats pull off wins in 2018 and 2020 seem likely to migrate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no longer on the ballot .
I know , I know .
2020 has been a rough year .
And Joe Biden ’ s win was understandably , for many , a rare moment of light .
But the truth of the matter is , now that the “ Resistance ” has won , it ’ s not clear how the center will hold .
There isn ’ t really a “ Biden coalition ” to speak of .
There is just the husk of the Obama coalition , unlikely to carry the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a mélange of swing voters who didn ’ t particularly love the Obama-Biden administration and likely won ’ t be thrilled with the Biden-Harris administration either .
That is , in the absence of Trump , Democrats seem to be on the verge of an identity crisis—and possibly an electoral crisis as well .
Who the party was against was obvious over the past four years .
But what is the party actually for ?
For that matter , who is the party for ?
Resolving these questions—not just in principle but in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coming months and years .
Not everyone is going to like the answers .

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In 2008, Barack Obama was widely described as having built a game-changing political coalition: young people, racial and ethnic minorities, educated professionals, urban and suburban voters. He was held to have built an innovative campaign infrastructure, leveraging big data and social media in an unprecedented way, increasing turnout and Democratic vote share with constituencies that are typically underrepresented at the ballot box.
All of this was thought to not only benefit Obama but also the party writ large. Indeed, in the wake of the 2008 election, Democrats had won the presidency and consolidated their hold over both chambers of Congress. At the state level, they held governorships in 29 states and controlled both chambers in 27 state legislatures. For contrast, Republicans controlled just 14 state legislatures and 21 governorships.
Many went so far as to believe that the Obama coalition heralded the arrival of a long-prophesied enduring Democratic majority in US politics. They were wrong.
In 2010, Democrats lost control of the House in the most sweeping congressional reversal in 62 years. They also saw huge losses in state legislatures, which allowed Republicans to control the decennial post-Census redistricting to an unprecedented degree. a democratic majority? The High Cost of Defeating Donald Trump Jeet Heer
In 2014, Democrats would go on to lose the Senate. And of course, two years later, they would lose the presidency as well. The party saw massive losses in state contests too. As Trump assumed office in 2016, Republicans controlled both chambers of the US Congress, both chambers in 32 state legislatures, and held 33 governorships.
Under Trump, the GOP would come to dominate the courts too. Roughly one-quarter of all active federal judges are Trump appointees. Republicans were also able to place three Supreme Court justices over the course of Trump’s term—leaving a 6-3 conservative majority that is likely to endure for some time. Popular "swipe left below to view more authors"Swipe → The Evisceration of a Public University The Evisceration of a Public University Lisa M. Corrigan The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks Chris Lehmann “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash Dave Zirin How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection Chris Lehmann Popular "swipe left below to view more authors"Swipe → The Evisceration of a Public University The Evisceration of a Public University Lisa M. Corrigan The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks The Patronizing Moralism of David Brooks Chris Lehmann “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash “The Blind Side” Was Always Trash Dave Zirin How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection How the “Brooks Brothers Riot” Set the Stage for Insurrection Chris Lehmann
Fortunately, parties virtually always lose seats in the House during their inaugural midterms. The GOP was no exception in 2018. Although the Republican Party’s losses were almost exactly average for an inaugural midterm, it was enough to flip the House to the Democrats. Current Issue View our current issue
In 2020, another key win: Joe Biden managed to unseat Donald Trump and is poised to assume the presidency in January 2021. Yet the Democratic Party finds itself in an overall weaker position than before the election.
Democrats lost seats in the House—putting them on track to lose the chamber outright in 2022. They may fail to take control of the Senate. They lost one governorship. The Democratic Party also saw continued erosion in state legislatures, leaving the GOP in a dominant position once again with respect to post-Census redistricting. According to FiveThirtyEight estimates, Republicans will control redistricting for roughly 43 percent of the seats in the House. Democrats will have comparable control over a mere 17 percent of seats. This is no small loss, as these maps will govern elections through 2030.
In short, although Barack Obama was fond of describing himself and his allies as being on the “right side of history”—and implying that his opponents were consigned to its dustbin—history seems to have had other ideas. But whatever happened to the Obama coalition? What went wrong with the emerging Democratic majority?
To help answer this question, I compared Democrat and Republican vote shares for various groups over the past 16 years. One thing that struck me looking at exit poll data—especially comparing the margins between Democrats and Republicans across time for different constituencies—is that parabolas seemed to emerge in the data over and over again. The numbers would go up or down significantly, only to return to some historical baseline. Visualizing the data confirmed this suspicion.
For African Americans, racial “others,” Protestants, and non-religious people, the trajectory was a consistent decline in allegiance to the Democratic Party from 2008 through 2020—culminating in a return to their 2004 levels of support.
However, some groups followed a slightly different path to this same destination. For instance, Democrats saw declines with whites, men, senior citizens (voters 65 and older) and rural voters to below their 2004 baselines over the course of the Obama and Trump administrations, but their margins shifted back to their pre-Obama positions in 2020.
Across the board, however, the entire Obama and Trump administrations essentially ended in an electoral wash with all of these groups.
For others, 2008 seemed to remain a key focal point—and any changes after 2008 seemed to have been erased by the end of this cycle. For example, Hispanics, Asians, and Catholics shifted still further toward the Democrats after 2008. However, virtually all of these gains have been erased in the intervening years as well.
The silver lining is that while the declines among Hispanic and Asian voters have been significant over the last eight years, Democrats’ margins with these voters remain significantly above the pre-Obama period. Of course, it is conceivable that the party could see continued losses with Hispanics, Asians, and Catholics down the line—but for now, their margins have merely shifted to their 2008 levels.
Others followed the opposite trajectory. For instance, women moved slightly toward the GOP in 2012, but shifted back towards the Democrats over the next two cycles. Meanwhile, city-dwellers, Catholics, voters aged 30–64, and those with some college (but no degree) all shifted significantly toward the GOP from 2008 through 2016. However, they all returned to nearly their 2008 baselines this election.
Movements in LGBTQ vote share, on the other hand, are highly unusual as compared to most other groups. Rather than reacting to the arrival of Obama or Trump on the political scene, LGBTQ voters seem to be responding to different factors than the rest of the electorate.
In any case, from the data we have explored so far, it may seem difficult to understand how Biden could have won in 2020. Yes, Democrats roughly matched their 2008 vote share with many groups. However, they ended up in a worse position with a number of core constituencies, including whites, African Americans, racial “others,” and LGBTQ voters.
Democrats’ margins for those earning less than $30k per year also continued dropping every year from 2008 through 2020. Obama won these voters by 33 percentage points in 2008. By 2020, Democrats’ lead was down to 8 points.
Fortunately, many other voters seem to have been so alienated by Trump that they shifted significantly toward the Democratic Party from 2016 through 2020.
Middle-income earners ($50,000–99,000 per year), suburbanites, and college grads all moved dramatically away from the GOP under Trump. This should not be particularly surprising, as these voters more than others value things like decorum, civility, and political correctness. They want the president to be “presidential.” Trump clearly was not.
But of course, to the extent that aesthetics drove these defections, many could end up shifting back to the GOP were the party to put someone more “respectable” on the ballot down the line. Indeed, voters earning $100k per year were initially so put off by Trump that they shifted toward Democrats in 2016 to a degree that was without recent historical precedent. However, by 2020 they were back to voting their pocketbooks, supporting Trump at roughly the same levels they supported Mitt Romney in 2012. Post-Trump, the whole constellation of bourgeois voters could follow suit.
Similar dynamics seem to be at work with respect to moderate and Independent voters.
Democrats’ 2020 margin with independents was their best for any presidential cycle on record, going back to 1972 (when these records begin). Overall, it was the largest margin among independents that either party has won in a presidential cycle since 1984. Their margins with moderates were also historic—not just among Democrats, but for either party—going all the way back to 1972.
However, given that these voters are not firm partisans, many seem to have voted for GOP candidates down-ballot—leading to a situation where Biden won the presidency by at least 6 million votes even as his party saw significant losses in congressional and state races. In future cycles, it is likely many of these moderate and independent voters will cast ballots for a Republican president as well. They clearly seem to have been rejecting Trump rather than embracing the Democratic Party.
Young people, meanwhile, increasingly drifted from the Democratic Party over the course of the Obama administration. However, in apparent reaction to Trump, a new generation began to support the Democrats more robustly. The party even slightly exceeded Obama’s 2008 margins during the 2018 midterms. However, it seems that young people were uninspired by Biden: Democratic vote share with 18-to-29-year-old voters has already begun to significantly decline.
In short, many of the groups that were key to Biden’s 2020 victory do not seem to be part of an enduring coalition. They sought to oust Trump. With that accomplished, a large share are likely to shift back to the GOP in coming cycles.
Indeed, this is precisely what happened after 2008. Suburbanites, middle-income earners and college-educated voters were widely described as core constituents of the Obama coalition. However, this assumption was premature. As the chart above shows, all of these groups shifted significantly toward the Republicans after Obama took office—and continued to favor the GOP through the rest of his tenure. That is, although these voters did indeed shift toward Democrats in 2008, they did not seem to be big fans of the Obama administration in subsequent years. They could well respond to Biden in kind.
Democrats, then, find themselves in a precarious position. Many of the constituencies held to be central to the Obama coalition have been drifting away from the party. Even under Trump, Democrats’ erosion among minority voters has continued unabated. They are seeing consistent attrition among people of faith too—not just with Christians, but also Muslims, Jews and other believers. The energy the party built with young people in 2018 already seems to be fading. However, Democrats have not pulled in new constituencies to offset the declining allegiance of these voters. Instead, many of those who helped Democrats pull off wins in 2018 and 2020 seem likely to migrate back toward the GOP when Trump is no longer on the ballot.
I know, I know. 2020 has been a rough year. And Joe Biden’s win was understandably, for many, a rare moment of light.
But the truth of the matter is, now that the “Resistance” has won, it’s not clear how the center will hold. There isn’t really a “Biden coalition” to speak of. There is just the husk of the Obama coalition, unlikely to carry the party much further than it already has—plus a mélange of swing voters who didn’t particularly love the Obama-Biden administration and likely won’t be thrilled with the Biden-Harris administration either.
That is, in the absence of Trump, Democrats seem to be on the verge of an identity crisis—and possibly an electoral crisis as well. Who the party was against was obvious over the past four years. But what is the party actually for? For that matter, who is the party for? Resolving these questions—not just in principle but in practice—will be a messy affair in the coming months and years. Not everyone is going to like the answers.