airwars--2020-10-23--Libya’s rival governments agree surprise ceasefire deal

Agreement could end civil war that has ravaged the country for almost a decade .
But questions remain over concrete implementation and foreign involvement .
The two most important parties to the conflict in Libya , the Government of National Accord ( GNA ) and the Libyan National Army ( LNA ) , agreed on October 23rd to an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Geneva under the auspices of the United Nations .
The landmark deal – which took many Libya analysts by surprise – could possibly cement the already peaceful situation of a de facto ceasefire in place since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forces from Tripoli .
Besides a freeze on all military agreements with foreign forces operating in Libya in general , the deal also implements various confidence-building measures such as the reopening of airports , seaports and roads between west and east Libya .
Another important feature agreed upon is the identification and categorization of all militias , with a view to reintegrating some of them into Libya ’ s armed forces .
The influence of militias , especially in and around Tripoli , has been a major factor in the destabilisation of post-Gaddafi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for example to demobilise its powerful forces , which had been used as justification by the LNA in its recent failed attempt to seize the capital .
The UN-brokered ceasefire has been received positively by many commentators , in contrast with the outcome of the Berlin Conference in January 2019 , after which hostilities quickly flared up again due to the lack of any concrete mechanisms and guarantees .
This new agreement seems to be more robust , even though many details have yet to be figured out by the committees .
Additionally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ over the past months has helped to put a political solution back on the table .
Acting Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Libya , Stephanie Williams , said in a statement : “ Today is a good day for the Libyan people.
” She added : “ The parties agreed that all military units and armed groups on the frontlines shall return to their camps .
This shall be accompanied by the departure of all mercenaries and foreign fighters from all Libyan territories – land , air and sea – within @ @ @ @ @ @ @ today.
” International meddling had been one of the main drivers of the Libyan civil war .
The GNA had received extensive support from Turkey in the recent past , which also introduced Syrian mercenaries to the conflict who had previously fought for the Syrian National Army against the Assad regime .
The LNA in turn , supported by the United Arab Emirates , Russia and Egypt , has also allegedly made use of Syrian fighters as well as Sudanese mercenaries .
The United States had become increasingly vocal this year as Russian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ air began playing an increasing role in Libya ’ s affairs .
Some of those Russians are already said to have left the oil ports in both Sidra and Ras Lanuf .
International arms shipments and the influx of mercenaries on both sides fuelled the conflict with devastating consequences for civilians .
From the overall 777 minimum civilian deaths recorded by Airwars since the end of the NATO campaign in 2011 , 429 fatalities ( 55 per cent ) occurred after the beginning of the LNA ’ s offensive in April 2019 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ accused of causing 271 deaths , 85 fatalities were attributed by local sources to the GNA and its ally Turkey .
The additional deaths could not clearly be attributed to any side .
Ending international involvement in Libya will thus be crucial to finally putting an end to the civil war .
However , it remains to be seen if all parties abide by the rules this time .
President Erdogan of Turkey has already said that the agreement was “ not reliable ” as it was not made at the highest level @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Geneva , which included various parties to the conflict , with Foreign Minister Heiko Maas saying : “ The inner-Libyan discussion formats agreed at the Berlin Conference in January culminated in a first , decisive success .
Libya has not yet reached its goal , but has cleared an important hurdle towards peace .
It is clear that the people in Libya want and must shape the future of their country themselves .
We therefore call on the international actors to support this path unreservedly and to refrain from any further interference .
@

Agreement could end civil war that has ravaged the country for almost a decade. But questions remain over concrete implementation and foreign involvement.
The two most important parties to the conflict in Libya, the Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA), agreed on October 23rd to an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Geneva under the auspices of the United Nations. The landmark deal – which took many Libya analysts by surprise – could possibly cement the already peaceful situation of a de facto ceasefire in place since June, when the LNA withdrew its forces from Tripoli.
Besides a freeze on all military agreements with foreign forces operating in Libya in general, the deal also implements various confidence-building measures such as the reopening of airports, seaports and roads between west and east Libya.
Another important feature agreed upon is the identification and categorization of all militias, with a view to reintegrating some of them into Libya’s armed forces.
The influence of militias, especially in and around Tripoli, has been a major factor in the destabilisation of post-Gaddafi Libya. The UN-recognised GNA has failed for example to demobilise its powerful forces, which had been used as justification by the LNA in its recent failed attempt to seize the capital.
Cautious optimism regarding this ceasefire agreement. Contentious issues moving forward: – the departure of foreign forces & freeze on military agreements
– operationalizing cantonment of weaponry/ceasefire
– the DDR program proposed, which revives debates on who is a "militia" pic.twitter.com/MGIfxPDQIT — Emadeddin Badi (@emad_badi) October 23, 2020
The UN-brokered ceasefire has been received positively by many commentators, in contrast with the outcome of the Berlin Conference in January 2019, after which hostilities quickly flared up again due to the lack of any concrete mechanisms and guarantees. This new agreement seems to be more robust, even though many details have yet to be figured out by the committees. Additionally, the military stalemate on the ground over the past months has helped to put a political solution back on the table.
Acting Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Libya, Stephanie Williams, said in a statement: “Today is a good day for the Libyan people.” She added: “The parties agreed that all military units and armed groups on the frontlines shall return to their camps. This shall be accompanied by the departure of all mercenaries and foreign fighters from all Libyan territories – land, air and sea – within a maximum period of three months from today.”
International meddling had been one of the main drivers of the Libyan civil war. The GNA had received extensive support from Turkey in the recent past, which also introduced Syrian mercenaries to the conflict who had previously fought for the Syrian National Army against the Assad regime. The LNA in turn, supported by the United Arab Emirates, Russia and Egypt, has also allegedly made use of Syrian fighters as well as Sudanese mercenaries. The United States had become increasingly vocal this year as Russian mercenaries on the ground and in the air began playing an increasing role in Libya’s affairs. Some of those Russians are already said to have left the oil ports in both Sidra and Ras Lanuf.
International arms shipments and the influx of mercenaries on both sides fuelled the conflict with devastating consequences for civilians. From the overall 777 minimum civilian deaths recorded by Airwars since the end of the NATO campaign in 2011, 429 fatalities (55 per cent) occurred after the beginning of the LNA’s offensive in April 2019. While the LNA and the UAE were accused of causing 271 deaths, 85 fatalities were attributed by local sources to the GNA and its ally Turkey. The additional deaths could not clearly be attributed to any side.
Libya: Almost 300 civilians were locally reported killed during the LNA's recent failed siege of Tripoli. Innovative interactive mapping from Airwars reveals the scale of violence experienced by local communities. https://t.co/hwFqCj093G pic.twitter.com/EgVPzfxEC5 — Airwars (@airwars) September 14, 2020
Ending international involvement in Libya will thus be crucial to finally putting an end to the civil war. However, it remains to be seen if all parties abide by the rules this time . President Erdogan of Turkey has already said that the agreement was “not reliable” as it was not made at the highest level.
Germany facilitated the difficult talks in Geneva, which included various parties to the conflict, with Foreign Minister Heiko Maas saying: “The inner-Libyan discussion formats agreed at the Berlin Conference in January culminated in a first, decisive success. Libya has not yet reached its goal, but has cleared an important hurdle towards peace.
It is clear that the people in Libya want and must shape the future of their country themselves. We therefore call on the international actors to support this path unreservedly and to refrain from any further interference.”


airwars--2020-10-25--Seeing through the rubble: Airwars and PAX launch joint report

Examining the civilian impact of the use of explosive weapons in the fight against ISIS Airwars and PAX have published a new joint report , Seeing Through The Rubble , examining the dire and long-lasting effects of explosive weapons on civilian populations in urban areas in recent international military campaigns in Mosul , Raqqa and Hawijah .
The report calls upon States to develop and support an international political declaration to better protect civilians against the use of explosive weapons in populated areas .
The report was launched at a virtual event on October 26th .
Ambassador Michael Gaffey of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ create an international consensus on limiting the use of explosive weapons in cities , told participants : “ We would not have reached the point of acceptance for the need for a political declaration [ on explosive weapons ] if it was not because of the work of civil society organisations .
Their research and advocacy are vital to the process.
” The new report concludes that ‘ precision ’ when using explosive weapons in urban areas is not the key determinant of civilian harm .
“ Rather ” , write the authors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effect of an explosive weapon in relation to the proximity of civilians in populated areas.
” The PAX and Airwars report furthermore concludes that the cases of Mosul , Raqqah and Hawijah show that States acting in accordance with International Humanitarian Law is not enough in itself to prevent immense civilian harm and civilian suffering when explosive weapons are deployed in populated areas .
Co-author of the report Roos Boer , programme leader of the Humanitarian Disarmament programme at Dutch peace organisation PAX , states : “ Large aircraft bombs and heavy artillery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bombing and shelling take place in towns and cities , civilians are killed and suffer life-changing injuries , and vital infrastructure like hospitals and schools are destroyed .
We need to see states agree to stronger rules that will stop these urban attacks.
” According to data monitoring by Action on Armed Violence ( AOAV ) , 92 per cent of the 19,401 civilian deaths and injuries tracked by the organisation from the worldwide use of explosive weapons in 2019 occurred in urban areas .
Furthermore , AOAV concludes that when explosive weapons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ missiles , rockets and aircraft bombs , are used in towns and cities , nine out of ten casualties are civilians .
Explosive weapons are a major driver of forced displacement of civilians – not only because of fear of death and injury and the destruction of homes , but also because of their devastating impact on critical infrastructure services such as health care , education and water and sanitation services .
Two nations particularly affected by recent urban fighting are Iraq and Syria .
While a variety of actors have caused major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries , the report focuses on military operations by the US-led International Coalition against ISIS .
Using publicly available sources , the report analyses the short- and long-term effects of the use of explosive weapons in Mosul , Raqqa and Hawijah .
These cases illustrate that the effects of explosive weapons continue long after the bombs have exploded .
In Mosul , the costs of the 2016-17 campaign to drive ISIS out of the city were high : at least 9,000 civilians were reportedly killed in the fighting .
Around 700,000 Moslawis were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that 80 per cent of the inner city ’ s buildings were destroyed .
In June 2019 , the UN International Organisation for Migration ( IOM ) reported that entire neighbourhoods of Mosul had yet to be rebuilt and that a lack of essential services and poor sanitation were still threatening public health .
Additionally , unexploded bombs , missiles , rockets and shells prevented civilians from returning to the city .
Seeing Through The Rubble also adds fresh information on the current situation in Hawijah .
Six different sources , including Hawijah @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the report on the recent state of the city after a devastating 2015 Dutch airstrike on an ISIS IED factory , leading to the deaths of at least 70 civilians and hundreds more injured .
The report estimates that the secondary explosions triggered by the Dutch airstrike damaged between 400 and 500 buildings in the area , including many shops , homes and schools .
Sources also reported that the airstrike caused major damage to crucial infrastructure , including roads and water pipelines .
According to the Mayor of Hawijah , Subhan Al @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the buildings have been rebuilt and much rubble remains .
The industrial area in Hawijah still suffers from a shortage of water and electricity .
Chris Woods , director of Airwars and a co-author of the report along with Laurie Treffers and Roos Boer , notes : “ In highlighting the negative consequences for civilians of recent Western military interventions at Mosul , Hawijah and Raqqa , our new report demonstrates why militaries can ’ t rely simply upon compliance with the laws of war when trying to reduce civilian casualties during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during city battles is a terrible reality – and greater international safeguards are urgently needed.
” Since 2019 , Ireland has been leading a series of consultations in Geneva , aimed at drawing up an international political declaration to ban the use of explosive weapons in urban areas .
The International Network on Explosive Weapons ( INEW ) , a network of NGOs , urges states to take immediate action to prevent human suffering from the use of explosive weapons in populated areas .
“ These case studies show once again the unacceptably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a result of bombing and shelling in cities and other populated areas , ” says Laura Baillot , coordinator of INEW , responding to the new report .
“ Every year we see tens of thousands of civilians killed and injured , that suffer psychological trauma , and are forced to flee for safety .
Cities are being torn apart – housing , hospitals , schools and vital infrastructure is destroyed which has disastrous consequences for the survival and wellbeing of the people that live there ” , continues Baillot .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be considered an inevitable consequence of war .
Using heavy explosive weapons such as heavy artillery , multi-barrel rocket launchers and large bombs and missiles in populated areas – even against military targets – is not acceptable and must stop .
”

Airwars and PAX have published a new joint report, Seeing Through The Rubble, examining the dire and long-lasting effects of explosive weapons on civilian populations in urban areas in recent international military campaigns in Mosul, Raqqa and Hawijah. The report calls upon States to develop and support an international political declaration to better protect civilians against the use of explosive weapons in populated areas.
The report was launched at a virtual event on October 26th. Ambassador Michael Gaffey of Ireland, which is spearheading efforts to create an international consensus on limiting the use of explosive weapons in cities, told participants: “We would not have reached the point of acceptance for the need for a political declaration [on explosive weapons] if it was not because of the work of civil society organisations. Their research and advocacy are vital to the process.”
The new report concludes that ‘precision’ when using explosive weapons in urban areas is not the key determinant of civilian harm. “Rather”, write the authors, “it is the wide area effect of an explosive weapon in relation to the proximity of civilians in populated areas.”
The PAX and Airwars report furthermore concludes that the cases of Mosul, Raqqah and Hawijah show that States acting in accordance with International Humanitarian Law is not enough in itself to prevent immense civilian harm and civilian suffering when explosive weapons are deployed in populated areas.
Co-author of the report Roos Boer, programme leader of the Humanitarian Disarmament programme at Dutch peace organisation PAX, states: “Large aircraft bombs and heavy artillery are intended for open battlefields. When bombing and shelling take place in towns and cities, civilians are killed and suffer life-changing injuries, and vital infrastructure like hospitals and schools are destroyed. We need to see states agree to stronger rules that will stop these urban attacks.”
Explosive weapons in populated areas
According to data monitoring by Action on Armed Violence (AOAV), 92 per cent of the 19,401 civilian deaths and injuries tracked by the organisation from the worldwide use of explosive weapons in 2019 occurred in urban areas. Furthermore, AOAV concludes that when explosive weapons, such as artillery, grenades, missiles, rockets and aircraft bombs, are used in towns and cities, nine out of ten casualties are civilians.
Explosive weapons are a major driver of forced displacement of civilians – not only because of fear of death and injury and the destruction of homes, but also because of their devastating impact on critical infrastructure services such as health care, education and water and sanitation services.
Cities in rubble
Two nations particularly affected by recent urban fighting are Iraq and Syria. While a variety of actors have caused major civilian harm and widespread destruction in both countries, the report focuses on military operations by the US-led International Coalition against ISIS. Using publicly available sources, the report analyses the short- and long-term effects of the use of explosive weapons in Mosul, Raqqa and Hawijah.
These cases illustrate that the effects of explosive weapons continue long after the bombs have exploded. In Mosul, the costs of the 2016-17 campaign to drive ISIS out of the city were high: at least 9,000 civilians were reportedly killed in the fighting. Around 700,000 Moslawis were displaced; and city officials have stated that 80 per cent of the inner city’s buildings were destroyed.
In June 2019, the UN International Organisation for Migration (IOM) reported that entire neighbourhoods of Mosul had yet to be rebuilt and that a lack of essential services and poor sanitation were still threatening public health. Additionally, unexploded bombs, missiles, rockets and shells prevented civilians from returning to the city.
New details on Hawijah disaster
Seeing Through The Rubble also adds fresh information on the current situation in Hawijah. Six different sources, including Hawijah’s mayor, were interviewed for the report on the recent state of the city after a devastating 2015 Dutch airstrike on an ISIS IED factory, leading to the deaths of at least 70 civilians and hundreds more injured.
The report estimates that the secondary explosions triggered by the Dutch airstrike damaged between 400 and 500 buildings in the area, including many shops, homes and schools. Sources also reported that the airstrike caused major damage to crucial infrastructure, including roads and water pipelines.
According to the Mayor of Hawijah, Subhan Al Jabouri, less than 40 per cent of the buildings have been rebuilt and much rubble remains. The industrial area in Hawijah still suffers from a shortage of water and electricity.
Chris Woods, director of Airwars and a co-author of the report along with Laurie Treffers and Roos Boer, notes: “In highlighting the negative consequences for civilians of recent Western military interventions at Mosul, Hawijah and Raqqa, our new report demonstrates why militaries can’t rely simply upon compliance with the laws of war when trying to reduce civilian casualties during urban fighting. Large scale civilian harm during city battles is a terrible reality – and greater international safeguards are urgently needed.”
International political declaration
Since 2019, Ireland has been leading a series of consultations in Geneva, aimed at drawing up an international political declaration to ban the use of explosive weapons in urban areas. The International Network on Explosive Weapons (INEW), a network of NGOs, urges states to take immediate action to prevent human suffering from the use of explosive weapons in populated areas. “These case studies show once again the unacceptably high levels of civilian casualties and destruction as a result of bombing and shelling in cities and other populated areas,” says Laura Boillot, coordinator of INEW, responding to the new report.
“Every year we see tens of thousands of civilians killed and injured, that suffer psychological trauma, and are forced to flee for safety. Cities are being torn apart – housing, hospitals, schools and vital infrastructure is destroyed which has disastrous consequences for the survival and wellbeing of the people that live there”, continues Boillot.
“This pattern of civilian harm should not be considered an inevitable consequence of war. Using heavy explosive weapons such as heavy artillery, multi-barrel rocket launchers and large bombs and missiles in populated areas – even against military targets – is not acceptable and must stop.”


airwars--2020-10-28--Trump in Yemen: New Airwars study shines light on opaque campaign

Despite at least 84 likely civilian deaths from US actions in Yemen under Donald Trump , public accountability peaked just 12 days into his presidency .
A new Airwars investigation into the ongoing US counterterrorism campaign in Yemen has identified at least 86 civilians likely killed by US actions during Donald Trump ’ s presidency – though the US military has admitted to no more than a dozen deaths .
Eroding Transparency , researched and written by Mohammed al-Jumaily and Edward Ray , examines US air and ground actions against both Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula , and Islamic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ More than 230 declared and alleged US military and CIA actions are identified – among them 41 reported strikes in which Yemenis have alleged civilian casualties .
An accompanying public database details every alleged US action in Yemen since 2017 under President Trump .
Employing its highly-effective all source monitoring approach , Airwars has significantly reoriented research towards Yemeni voices and experiences .
There are some 4,400 unique sources in the new public database , sixty per cent of these in Arabic .
More than 140 alleged or confirmed US actions have also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Eroding Transparency shows that US operations in Yemen – already on the rise during the last two years of the Obama administration – significantly escalated under Trump , with dire consequences for civilian harm .
US operations too often lacked both the transparency and accountability standards of other recent US military interventions , and the report identifies a worrying emphasis under Trump of both clandestine and covert activity in Yemen , obscured from public scrutiny .
Airwars ’ new research tracks a precipitous increase in alleged and confirmed US counterterrorism actions in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first year of the Trump presidency saw the highest reported US counterterrorism actions in Yemen since 2002 .
This escalation was accompanied by a significant loosening of restrictions on how the US military could operate in Yemen : “ It seems what happened was that the Trump administration was keen to take the gloves off , as it were , to be what they perceived was tougher on terrorism , and this was one of the first ready-made concepts of operation available , ” says Luke Hartig , previously Senior Director for Counterterrorism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Obama administration .
When compared with available data on US actions during Barack Obama ’ s presidency ( 2009 – 2017 ) , it is clear this initial spike under Trump in 2017 represented a distinct departure from the previous administration .
That one year saw a record 133 officially declared US airstrikes and ground actions in Yemen .
To put this in context , the total number of publicly declared actions in Yemen during the full presidencies of George W. Bush and Barack Obama , over a 14 year period , amounted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Airwars research shows that US counterterrorism activity in Yemen has declined to its lowest reported levels since 2012 .
The expansion of US activity during the early Trump presidency resulted in a corresponding increase in likely civilian harm , Eroding Transparency reveals .
Of the 86 minimum likely civilian deaths tracked by Airwars , some 93 per cent ( 80 deaths ) arose from reported US actions in Yemen between January 2017 and April 2018 .
Reported civilian deaths tracked by Airwars in 2017 significantly outstripped alleged deaths in any year during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism .
The estimated minimum civilian deaths from Trump strikes in Yemen include at least 28 children and 13 women , resulting from some 25 declared and likely US actions .
At least 63 likely civilian deaths resulted from twenty actions that US Central Command has itself publicly declared .
Eroding Transparency emphasises in particular the considerable risks of US ground actions to civilians ; alleged or confirmed US ground actions , though accounting only less than three per cent of likely US actions , were responsible for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minimum confirmed or fair civilian harm tracked by Airwars .
Airwars ’ new analysis further highlights the extent to which small Yemeni communities have borne the brunt of US counterterror actions .
One area of Bayda governorate , roughly 25km in radius , has been the site of almost a fifth of the total likely and declared US actions tracked by Airwars in the past four years – reportedly killing at least 38 civilians .
Yet these likely deaths have gone largely unrecognised by the US military .
The US Department of Defense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from a single action – the disastrous US special forces raid in Yakla , Bayda governorate , on January 29th 2017 .
Just twelve days into the Trump presidency , the admission of civilian harm in that raid constituted the high watermark of accountability for the administration .
Yet even this concession was a considerable underestimate , In that same ground raid , Airwars and others assess that at least 20 civilians were in fact killed .
Though President Trump removed civilian harm reporting requirements for the CIA , the Department of Defense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from its own actions annually to Congress .
Yet apart from the Yakla concession , the Pentagon has admitted to no further civilian deaths or injuries arising from US military actions in Yemen under Donald Trump .
In its 2018 and 2019 annual civilian casualty reports to Congress , the DoD instead asserted that it had found “ no credible reports of civilian casualties resulting from US military actions in Yemen ” for the years in question .
During those same years , Airwars assesses , at least 30 civilian deaths were likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reported by local advocacy NGOs such as Mwatana for Human Rights .
US Central Command did not respond substantively to Airwars ’ comprehensive submission , nine weeks prior to the publication of Eroding Transparency , of more than 1,000 pages of archived source materials , in both English and Arabic , relating to all 41 declared and alleged US actions which had led to local claims of civilian harm in Yemen under President Trump .
Throughout the US ’ s lengthy counterterrorism campaign in Yemen , the key focus has been an almost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presence and influence in the country .
This began in earnest in 2009 , with the US taking the lead in containing AQAP as a result of what it saw as the Yemeni government ’ s inability to effectively counter terrorism in the country .
Since the inauguration of President Trump , Airwars has tracked a minimum total of 460 militant deaths from alleged and confirmed US actions in Yemen – the overwhelming majority belonging to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula ( AQAP ) .
A small cluster of strikes are also known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ State in Yemen , in October and November 2017 .
Approximately 60 % of the total minimum militant deaths tracked by Airwars , amounting to 242 AQAP or ISIS fighters , were killed in 2017 .
Airwars research suggests a subtle focus by both CENTCOM and the CIA on targeting “ high-value ” targets , with the possible exception of the October 2017 attacks on ISIS-Y training camps , which appear to have been aimed at significantly degrading the group .
According to Yemen expert Dr Elisabeth Kendall , the US ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put al-Qaeda under pressure because they end up being concerned about holding meetings to discuss strategy and iron out disputes… this means that the seeds of doubt and suspicion , both naturally occurring and sown by spies… and are left to fester and you end up with defections and splintering ” .
Additionally , while previously the group would have had programmes including “ educational training , military training , management training , ” the recent US campaign had made it almost impossible to run these programmes , says Dr Kendall .
However @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may also have thwarted local efforts to control and contain militant groups in Yemen .
Given the often porous relationship between AQAP and tribes , the sometimes indiscriminate nature ofsUS strikes has actively undermined efforts by tribal elders to convince their members who have joined AQAP to leave the group in exchange for immunity .
Additionally , deadly US ground raids in 2017 , in which dozens of civilians and tribal members were killed , have reportedly alienated local communities and further entrenched distrust and hostility towards US involvement in the country .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ actions may have had such unintended consequences .
The future of US actions in Yemen Though reported US actions have declined in frequency in the latter years of Donald Trump ’ s presidency , there has also been a marked shift towards covert or clandestine US actions , shielded from public accountability .
As Eroding Transparency shows , while CENTCOM itself asserts that it has not conducted any airstrike in Yemen since June 24th 2019 , during that same period Airwars tracked 30 allegations of US strikes in Yemen .
Of these 30 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Airwars as likely US strikes based on local reporting .
And in three events , all during 2020 , admission of responsibility for actions by US officials has in turn indicated those attacks were conducted either by the CIA , or were clandestine US military actions .
At this juncture , the future of US counter-terrorism in Yemen remains unclear .
Though Airwars has monitored a clear decline in the apparent frequency of US actions since 2018 , Eroding Transparency also highlights a corresponding weakening of public accountability for those actions .

Despite at least 84 likely civilian deaths from US actions in Yemen under Donald Trump, public accountability peaked just 12 days into his presidency.
A new Airwars investigation into the ongoing US counterterrorism campaign in Yemen has identified at least 86 civilians likely killed by US actions during Donald Trump’s presidency – though the US military has admitted to no more than a dozen deaths.
Eroding Transparency, researched and written by Mohammed al-Jumaily and Edward Ray, examines US air and ground actions against both Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and Islamic State in Yemen, since 2017. More than 230 declared and alleged US military and CIA actions are identified – among them 41 reported strikes in which Yemenis have alleged civilian casualties.
An accompanying public database details every alleged US action in Yemen since 2017 under President Trump. Employing its highly-effective all source monitoring approach, Airwars has significantly reoriented research towards Yemeni voices and experiences. There are some 4,400 unique sources in the new public database, sixty per cent of these in Arabic. More than 140 alleged or confirmed US actions have also been geolocated by Airwars to village-level accuracy.
Read our full report, Eroding Transparency: Trump in Yemen
Eroding Transparency shows that US operations in Yemen – already on the rise during the last two years of the Obama administration – significantly escalated under Trump, with dire consequences for civilian harm. US operations too often lacked both the transparency and accountability standards of other recent US military interventions, and the report identifies a worrying emphasis under Trump of both clandestine and covert activity in Yemen, obscured from public scrutiny.
Initial spike under Donald Trump
Airwars’ new research tracks a precipitous increase in alleged and confirmed US counterterrorism actions in Yemen during 2017. Indeed, the first year of the Trump presidency saw the highest reported US counterterrorism actions in Yemen since 2002.
This escalation was accompanied by a significant loosening of restrictions on how the US military could operate in Yemen: “It seems what happened was that the Trump administration was keen to take the gloves off, as it were, to be what they perceived was tougher on terrorism, and this was one of the first ready-made concepts of operation available,” says Luke Hartig, previously Senior Director for Counterterrorism at the National Security Council during the Obama administration.
When compared with available data on US actions during Barack Obama’s presidency (2009 – 2017), it is clear this initial spike under Trump in 2017 represented a distinct departure from the previous administration. That one year saw a record 133 officially declared US airstrikes and ground actions in Yemen. To put this in context, the total number of publicly declared actions in Yemen during the full presidencies of George W. Bush and Barack Obama, over a 14 year period, amounted to 150 events.
More recently however, Airwars research shows that US counterterrorism activity in Yemen has declined to its lowest reported levels since 2012.
Poor US response to civilian casualty concerns
The expansion of US activity during the early Trump presidency resulted in a corresponding increase in likely civilian harm, Eroding Transparency reveals. Of the 86 minimum likely civilian deaths tracked by Airwars, some 93 per cent (80 deaths) arose from reported US actions in Yemen between January 2017 and April 2018. Reported civilian deaths tracked by Airwars in 2017 significantly outstripped alleged deaths in any year during the Obama presidency, as previously tracked by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism.
The estimated minimum civilian deaths from Trump strikes in Yemen include at least 28 children and 13 women, resulting from some 25 declared and likely US actions. At least 63 likely civilian deaths resulted from twenty actions that US Central Command has itself publicly declared. Eroding Transparency emphasises in particular the considerable risks of US ground actions to civilians; alleged or confirmed US ground actions, though accounting only less than three per cent of likely US actions, were responsible for at least 40 per cent of the minimum confirmed or fair civilian harm tracked by Airwars.
Airwars’ new analysis further highlights the extent to which small Yemeni communities have borne the brunt of US counterterror actions. One area of Bayda governorate, roughly 25km in radius, has been the site of almost a fifth of the total likely and declared US actions tracked by Airwars in the past four years – reportedly killing at least 38 civilians.
Yet these likely deaths have gone largely unrecognised by the US military. The US Department of Defense has conceded just four to twelve deaths from a single action – the disastrous US special forces raid in Yakla, Bayda governorate, on January 29th 2017. Just twelve days into the Trump presidency, the admission of civilian harm in that raid constituted the high watermark of accountability for the administration. Yet even this concession was a considerable underestimate, In that same ground raid, Airwars and others assess that at least 20 civilians were in fact killed.
Though President Trump removed civilian harm reporting requirements for the CIA, the Department of Defense is still obliged to report civilian harm from its own actions annually to Congress. Yet apart from the Yakla concession, the Pentagon has admitted to no further civilian deaths or injuries arising from US military actions in Yemen under Donald Trump. In its 2018 and 2019 annual civilian casualty reports to Congress, the DoD instead asserted that it had found “no credible reports of civilian casualties resulting from US military actions in Yemen” for the years in question.
During those same years, Airwars assesses, at least 30 civilian deaths were likely incurred by US actions, including events reported by local advocacy NGOs such as Mwatana for Human Rights.
US Central Command did not respond substantively to Airwars’ comprehensive submission, nine weeks prior to the publication of Eroding Transparency, of more than 1,000 pages of archived source materials, in both English and Arabic, relating to all 41 declared and alleged US actions which had led to local claims of civilian harm in Yemen under President Trump.
An effective counterterrorism approach?
Throughout the US’s lengthy counterterrorism campaign in Yemen, the key focus has been an almost exclusively militarised approach to degrading the Jihadist presence and influence in the country. This began in earnest in 2009, with the US taking the lead in containing AQAP as a result of what it saw as the Yemeni government’s inability to effectively counter terrorism in the country.
Since the inauguration of President Trump, Airwars has tracked a minimum total of 460 militant deaths from alleged and confirmed US actions in Yemen – the overwhelming majority belonging to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). A small cluster of strikes are also known or suspected to have targeted so-called Islamic State in Yemen, in October and November 2017. Approximately 60% of the total minimum militant deaths tracked by Airwars, amounting to 242 AQAP or ISIS fighters, were killed in 2017.
Airwars research suggests a subtle focus by both CENTCOM and the CIA on targeting “high-value” targets, with the possible exception of the October 2017 attacks on ISIS-Y training camps, which appear to have been aimed at significantly degrading the group.
According to Yemen expert Dr Elisabeth Kendall, the US’s primary focus on high-value targets has “put al-Qaeda under pressure because they end up being concerned about holding meetings to discuss strategy and iron out disputes… this means that the seeds of doubt and suspicion, both naturally occurring and sown by spies… and are left to fester and you end up with defections and splintering”. Additionally, while previously the group would have had programmes including “educational training, military training, management training,” the recent US campaign had made it almost impossible to run these programmes, says Dr Kendall.
However, the US’s militarised approach may also have thwarted local efforts to control and contain militant groups in Yemen. Given the often porous relationship between AQAP and tribes, the sometimes indiscriminate nature ofsUS strikes has actively undermined efforts by tribal elders to convince their members who have joined AQAP to leave the group in exchange for immunity.
Additionally, deadly US ground raids in 2017, in which dozens of civilians and tribal members were killed, have reportedly alienated local communities and further entrenched distrust and hostility towards US involvement in the country. Eroding Transparency highlights several cases where US actions may have had such unintended consequences.
The future of US actions in Yemen
Though reported US actions have declined in frequency in the latter years of Donald Trump’s presidency, there has also been a marked shift towards covert or clandestine US actions, shielded from public accountability. As Eroding Transparency shows, while CENTCOM itself asserts that it has not conducted any airstrike in Yemen since June 24th 2019, during that same period Airwars tracked 30 allegations of US strikes in Yemen.
Of these 30 incidents, 15 have been assessed by Airwars as likely US strikes based on local reporting. And in three events, all during 2020, admission of responsibility for actions by US officials has in turn indicated those attacks were conducted either by the CIA, or were clandestine US military actions.
At this juncture, the future of US counter-terrorism in Yemen remains unclear. Though Airwars has monitored a clear decline in the apparent frequency of US actions since 2018, Eroding Transparency also highlights a corresponding weakening of public accountability for those actions.
Read our full report, Eroding Transparency: Trump in Yemen


airwars--2020-10-29--“Some families were completely wiped out”: The Mayor of Hawijah speaks out

On the night of June 2nd to June 3rd 2015 , Dutch F-16s bombed an ISIS Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosives Devices ( VBIED ) factory in the city of Hawijah , in Iraq ’ s Kirkuk province .
Secondary explosions triggered by the airstrike killed at least 70 civilians and wounded hundreds more .
Today , the city of Hawijah is still recovering – not only from long-standing ISIS control of the area , but also the lasting impact on civilian lives of the Dutch airstrike five years ago .
For their new joint report , Seeing through the rubble : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explosive weapons in the fight against ISIS , Airwars and PAX interviewed Hawijah Mayor Subhan Al Jabouri about the direct , indirect , and ongoing effects of the strike .
The questions were answered via e-mail on September 28th , 2020 .
The first part of the interview discusses the direct consequences of the Dutch air raid .
The second focuses on the indirect effects .
In the third section , the Mayor was asked about the impact the Dutch air raid still has on the lives of civilians in Hawijah .
Finally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that both the ISIS occupation and the anti-ISIS Coalition have caused in his city .
1 .
What is Hawijah Council ’ s present estimate of civilian deaths and injuries resulting from this Dutch airstrike ?
According to preliminary reports , more than 70 civilians were killed and more than 500 others injured .
2 .
Can the Council please characterise the damage caused to civilian objects such as houses , roads , medical facilities , shops , schools , childcare facilities , pharmacies , factories ?
Is there a list of damaged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ properties , factories , workshops and homes in the surrounding area of the explosion , a power station , civil defence centre and a wheat mill were also destroyed .
3 .
How many schools were damaged in the attack , and are these functional again ?
A total of 37 schools were damaged and four schools are out of service and no longer running and these have not yet been rebuilt .
4 .
How many pharmacies were damaged and are these open again ?
5 .
Is it true that an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and are these operational again ?
Yes , it was confirmed that more than one ice production plant and brick factories were destroyed as a result of the airstrike .
The factories have not completely reopened , nor have their owners returned to the area .
6 .
Is it true that the surface water sewage system was damaged , and is that operational again ?
7 .
Is there an overall estimate of buildings both damaged and destroyed in the Dutch airstrike ?
According to the first assessment of the size of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impact of the shock wave of the explosion , the size of the damage reached a diameter of more than 2km and 500 buildings were subject to major damage .
8 .
Can the Council please outline damage to infrastructure , such as electricity , gas pipelines , water pipelines , communication lines , etcetera ?
The infrastructure in the area of the explosion and the surrounding neighbourhoods were damaged , which led to the suspension of a large number of facilities , including a power station , main communication lines and water @ @ @ @ @ @ @ What has been the impact of the damage to civilian objects and infrastructure from the Dutch airstrike such as a decline in access to water , electricity , heating or other essential services such as water and sanitation services , health services , displacement , environmental impact , rubble and waste management The great damage caused to the infrastructure of the region and the surrounding areas , as well as damage to the power station and water pipelines , led to the displacement of a large number of families from the affected areas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ basic services to them .
10 .
What psychological impact on local communities does the Council believe has occurred ?
The horror of this strike had a profound psychological effect on the psyche of the victims , as it led to the death of dozens of families and the injury of hundreds .
Some families were completely wiped out , others lost at least three or four family members .
The absence of direct health care and the inability of the people to help their families and watch them die under the rubble @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is in addition to the loss of their homes , properties and sources of income and their experiences of being displaced .
11 .
It has been reported that Hawijans remain concerned about possible radiological and other contaminant effects of both the Dutch strike and the broader campaign to remove ISIS .
Can the Council please update us on these concerns ?
Despite the liberation of the area and the return of locals and their attempts , the industrial zone and surrounding residential areas have not been rebuilt .
However , there are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ radiological effects and polluting materials as a result of the tremendous force of the explosion , as some believe that radioactive materials are present in the area .
Part III : Long-term effects 12 .
How are survivors of the Dutch airstrike presently doing ?
The Al-Ghad organisation , in cooperation with the local authorities , is ensuring the registration of survivors and those affected by the airstrike through voluntary work .
The information currently recorded shows that the survivors are divided between internally displaced persons in Kirkuk and Salah al-Din governorate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a result of the destruction of homes , sources of income and laboratories , and the lack of basic services in the area .
13 .
Can the local authorities please confirm the estimate that as a result of this attack , that around 2,000 people experienced psycho-social problems ?
Yes , and the number of people affected may exceed this number due to the side effects of the strike .
14 .
Are psychological and physical rehabilitation programs available ?
There are no specialized rehabilitation or psychological support programs that specifically target @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they may be included in public programs that target the Hawija area or Internally Displaced Peoples .
15 .
Have victims been compensated in any way ?
Can the Council confirm that there has been only one family that has received compensation ?
No compensation programs were implemented for survivors .

On the night of June 2nd to June 3rd 2015, Dutch F-16s bombed an ISIS Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosives Devices (VBIED) factory in the city of Hawijah, in Iraq’s Kirkuk province. Secondary explosions triggered by the airstrike killed at least 70 civilians and wounded hundreds more. Today, the city of Hawijah is still recovering – not only from long-standing ISIS control of the area, but also the lasting impact on civilian lives of the Dutch airstrike five years ago.
For their new joint report, Seeing through the rubble: The civilian impact of the use of explosive weapons in the fight against ISIS, Airwars and PAX interviewed Hawijah Mayor Subhan Al Jabouri about the direct, indirect, and ongoing effects of the strike.
The questions were answered via e-mail on September 28th, 2020. The first part of the interview discusses the direct consequences of the Dutch air raid. The second focuses on the indirect effects. In the third section, the Mayor was asked about the impact the Dutch air raid still has on the lives of civilians in Hawijah. Finally, the Mayor examines the overall damage that both the ISIS occupation and the anti-ISIS Coalition have caused in his city.
Interview with Subhan Al Jabouri, Mayor of Hawijah
Part I: Direct harm
1. What is Hawijah Council’s present estimate of civilian deaths and injuries resulting from this Dutch airstrike?
According to preliminary reports, more than 70 civilians were killed and more than 500 others injured.
2. Can the Council please characterise the damage caused to civilian objects such as houses, roads, medical facilities, shops, schools, childcare facilities, pharmacies, factories? Is there a list of damaged properties?
Besides severe damage to civilian properties, factories, workshops and homes in the surrounding area of the explosion, a power station, civil defence centre and a wheat mill were also destroyed.
3. How many schools were damaged in the attack, and are these functional again?
A total of 37 schools were damaged and four schools are out of service and no longer running and these have not yet been rebuilt.
4. How many pharmacies were damaged and are these open again?
No answer.
5. Is it true that an ice- and brick factory were damaged, and are these operational again?
Yes, it was confirmed that more than one ice production plant and brick factories were destroyed as a result of the airstrike. The factories have not completely reopened, nor have their owners returned to the area.
6. Is it true that the surface water sewage system was damaged, and is that operational again?
No answer.
7. Is there an overall estimate of buildings both damaged and destroyed in the Dutch airstrike?
According to the first assessment of the size of the destruction and the diameter of the impact of the shock wave of the explosion, the size of the damage reached a diameter of more than 2km and 500 buildings were subject to major damage.
8. Can the Council please outline damage to infrastructure, such as electricity, gas pipelines, water pipelines, communication lines, etcetera?
The infrastructure in the area of the explosion and the surrounding neighbourhoods were damaged, which led to the suspension of a large number of facilities, including a power station, main communication lines and water pipes in the area.
Part II: Indirect harm
9. What has been the impact of the damage to civilian objects and infrastructure from the Dutch airstrike such as a decline in access to water, electricity, heating or other essential services such as water and sanitation services, health services, displacement, environmental impact, rubble and waste management
The great damage caused to the infrastructure of the region and the surrounding areas, as well as damage to the power station and water pipelines, led to the displacement of a large number of families from the affected areas and a significant decrease in access to basic services to them.
10. What psychological impact on local communities does the Council believe has occurred?
The horror of this strike had a profound psychological effect on the psyche of the victims, as it led to the death of dozens of families and the injury of hundreds. Some families were completely wiped out, others lost at least three or four family members. The absence of direct health care and the inability of the people to help their families and watch them die under the rubble induced trauma for the people. This is in addition to the loss of their homes, properties and sources of income and their experiences of being displaced.
11. It has been reported that Hawijans remain concerned about possible radiological and other contaminant effects of both the Dutch strike and the broader campaign to remove ISIS. Can the Council please update us on these concerns?
Despite the liberation of the area and the return of locals and their attempts, the industrial zone and surrounding residential areas have not been rebuilt. However, there are still concerns among the residents about the radiological effects and polluting materials as a result of the tremendous force of the explosion, as some believe that radioactive materials are present in the area.
Part III: Long-term effects
12. How are survivors of the Dutch airstrike presently doing?
The Al-Ghad organisation, in cooperation with the local authorities, is ensuring the registration of survivors and those affected by the airstrike through voluntary work. The information currently recorded shows that the survivors are divided between internally displaced persons in Kirkuk and Salah al-Din governorate, and internally displaced persons inside Hawija as a result of the destruction of homes, sources of income and laboratories, and the lack of basic services in the area.
13. Can the local authorities please confirm the estimate that as a result of this attack, that around 2,000 people experienced psycho-social problems?
Yes, and the number of people affected may exceed this number due to the side effects of the strike.
14. Are psychological and physical rehabilitation programs available?
There are no specialized rehabilitation or psychological support programs that specifically target survivors of the Dutch airstrike, but they may be included in public programs that target the Hawija area or Internally Displaced Peoples.
15. Have victims been compensated in any way? Can the Council confirm that there has been only one family that has received compensation?
No compensation programs were implemented for survivors.


airwars--2020-11-18--The Credibles: How Airwars secured the most comprehensive locational data on civilian harm ever rele

The Credibles: How Airwars secured the most comprehensive locational data on civilian harm ever released by the US military

Major transparency breakthrough may help Iraqis and Syrians to secure restitution and reconciliation The US-led Coalition has released to Airwars the near coordinates of almost all confirmed or ‘ Credible ’ civilian harm events in Iraq and Syria in the long war against so-called Islamic State , allowing for the first time the accurate locating of 341 confirmed incidents and almost 1,400 civilian deaths since 2014 .
The groundbreaking decision by the US-led Coalition – which came after several years of patient engagement by Airwars – will enable affected Iraqis and Syrians for the first time to know whether their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ particular event .
That in turn could open the way for both apologies and ex gratia payments from the US and its international allies .
Former chief Coalition spokesman Colonel Myles Caggins said that the decision to share the data had been taken in the interest of transparency : “ We take every allegation of civilian casualties with the utmost sincerity , concern , and diligence ; we see the addition of the geolocations as a testament to transparency , and our commitment to working with agencies like Airwars to correctly identify civilian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this locational data for confirmed civilian harm events in Iraq and Syria – accurate in some cases to just one metre – sets a new and welcome transparency benchmark , ” Airwars noted .
“ We appreciate the US-led Coalition ’ s decision to release this important material , which should help affected Iraqis and Syrians to secure some closure following tragic losses within their families.
” In August 2014 the US-led coalition began bombing so-called Islamic State after militants had seized large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq .
Millions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that lasted several years , with fighting often taking place in heavily built-up neighbourhoods .
Over the years the US-led Coalition has admitted many hundreds of civilian deaths from its own actions – though identifying exactly where these took place has been a major challenge .
The release to Airwars of hundreds of coordinates of Credible incidents – most accurate to within 100 metres and some to within just one metre – is believed to be the most comprehensive locational civilian casualty data ever released by the US military .
Airwars has now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to its website , The Credibles , which comprehensively maps all located incidents across both Iraq and Syria .
The data has also been visualised in partnership with The Washington Post .
The locational data provided by the US military is , Airwars believes , unique .
No previous belligerent is thought to have revealed at scale – either during or after a war – exactly where and when it has harmed civilians .
Using the US Department of Defense ’ s preferred Military Grid Reference System ( MGRS ) , 70 of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been publicly geolocated by the Coalition to an accuracy of just one metre squared , with all additional events geolocated to an accuracy of a one hundred metre square box .
Many of these incidents have already been well documented by affected communities themselves , with associated photographs , videos , and eyewitness narratives .
Airwars also presently lists the names of more than 900 victims from these located events .
Just three of 344 confirmed Coalition civilian casualty incidents have been omitted from the data release .
One recent case involved Coalition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sensitive Special Forces operations .
Another event is still being queried with US Central Command ( CENTCOM ) .
The third case is the sole British-confirmed anti ISIS event , from March 2018 – with the UK Ministry of Defence still declining to release any locational information .
More than 29,600 civilians have locally been alleged killed by US-led Coalition actions in Iraq and Syria since 2014 , according to Airwars monitoring of local populations .
The US was initially slow to engage – with just three civilian harm events confirmed by CENTCOM @ @ @ @ @ @ @ war .
Beginning in 2016 , the process of casualty assessments by the US military became more systematised – in part as a result of an increased focus on casualty mitigation by the Obama administration during its last months in office ; and in part because of pressure from Airwars and other NGOs , which between them were tracking local allegations of civilian harm from Inherent Resolve actions in both Iraq and Syria .
CENTCOM established a permanent civilian casualty assessment team at Tampa covering the war against ISIS in mid 2016 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on confirmed civilian harm events .
An additional 60 Credible incidents were admitted that year , for example .
In December 2016 , the Coalition took over civilian casualty assessments from CENTCOM ( although almost all personnel continued to be drawn from US forces . )
The US-led alliance also began publishing monthly civilian harm assessments – which continue today .
In total , CENTCOM and the Coalition have now assessed almost 3,000 alleged civilian harm events in the war against ISIS , to date confirming as Credible some 344 of these incidents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ casualties in Iraq and Syria by CENTCOM and the Coalition was generally well received , there were often significant challenges in properly identifying the location of such events .
Press releases issued via military public affairs teams only tagged a Credible event to the nearest large population centre .
In the September 2017 report for example , the Coalition declared a major confirmed civilian harm event in Mosul : “ March 14 , 2017 , near Mosul , Iraq , via media report : During a strike on ISIS fighters engaging partner forces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assessed that 27 civilians in an adjacent structure were unintentionally killed.
” The month of March 2017 saw very heavy fighting at Mosul .
Airwars tracked five separate claimed civilian harm events in the city for March 14th alone ( two of them mass casualty incidents ) , with some days seeing more than a dozen allegations .
Without the correct coordinates , affected Moslawis could never know whether their loved ones were ( or were not ) affected by particular strikes .
For the March 14th 2017 event cited above , Coalition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mosul accurate to within just one metre ( 38SLF2901422174 ) , confirming that the event took place in the neighbourhood of al Jadida .
The challenge was whether such precise data could now be acquired for all confirmed events .
Such data could also help to prise open the door on possible restitution for civilian harm from US and Coalition actions in Iraq and Syria .
According to the Pentagon , only six ex gratia payments were made to Iraqis during 2019 , compared with more than 600 such awards for Afghanistan .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Resolve for confirmed civilian harm events has majorly hampered the ability of Iraqis and Syrians to pursue claims – until now .
Following a face to face meeting with senior officials in Tampa in May 2016 , CENTCOM and Airwars began regularly sharing data on civilian casualty allegations , in order to improve understanding , on both sides , of reported non combatant harm .
That relationship has continued , with sometimes weekly confidential engagements between the Coalition ’ s CIVCAS Cell and the Airwars military advocacy team , involving granular queries from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Airwars occasional precise locational data for Credible events in mid 2016 , in order better to clarify particular cases .
Over time this became more systematised .
Alongside its monthly public press releases , the Coalition for several years provided Airwars with a private , annotated version of the monthly release , which both identified the geolocation of the event – and also , where possible , specifically cross matched Credible incidents to coded events already in the Airwars database .
This locational information was provided by CJTFOIR on the expectation that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own database of civilian harm events .
By early 2018 the Coalition was consistently providing MGRS data every month to Airwars for both Credible and later , for ‘ Non Credible ’ events .
However this still left 126 historical confirmed cases for which Airwars had no locational data .
In early 2019 , Airwars asked both the Coalition and the US Department of Defense to release this information – arguing that the alliance ’ s significant transparency in confirming civilian harm cases was being weakened by our then being unable publicly to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It was also argued that the US could better distinguish itself from Russia and other belligerents , who instead chose to hide or deny civilian harm from their own actions .
The missing locational data was provided to Airwars in Summer 2019 by the Coalition ’ s civilian casualty assessment team – a major step forward for transparency and public accountability .
Later that year , the Coalition also began publishing MGRS data as part of its regular monthly public reporting .
The Credibles dataset offers significant potential for visualisations , allowing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ harm event in both Iraq and Syria to be precisely mapped and timelined .
Additionally , each event can be cross matched to an associated Airwars incident report .
More than 900 victim names are linked , along with associated photographs , videos , witness statements , and satellite imagery analysis of bomb sites .
Airwars has built a new subsite illustrating the remarkable potential of this unique transparency dataset .
Each US-led Coalition Credible event has been precisely mapped down to at least 100 metres , and timelined across the war .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the affected communities led us to create an interface that would make the dataset easily accessible , and represent the information in a way that reflected its accuracy , ” says Lizzie Malcolm of Scottish-American design team Rectangle , which conceived the new subsite .
The Credibles data sets a new benchmark for US military accountability for civilian harm .
It ’ s hoped that the release of such accurate geolocational data can now become standard both for the US military and its allies .

The US-led Coalition has released to Airwars the near coordinates of almost all confirmed or ‘Credible’ civilian harm events in Iraq and Syria in the long war against so-called Islamic State, allowing for the first time the accurate locating of 341 confirmed incidents and almost 1,400 civilian deaths since 2014.
The groundbreaking decision by the US-led Coalition – which came after several years of patient engagement by Airwars – will enable affected Iraqis and Syrians for the first time to know whether their loved ones were caught up in a particular event. That in turn could open the way for both apologies and ex gratia payments from the US and its international allies.
Former chief Coalition spokesman Colonel Myles Caggins said that the decision to share the data had been taken in the interest of transparency: “We take every allegation of civilian casualties with the utmost sincerity, concern, and diligence; we see the addition of the geolocations as a testament to transparency, and our commitment to working with agencies like Airwars to correctly identify civilian harm incidents.”
“The release of this locational data for confirmed civilian harm events in Iraq and Syria – accurate in some cases to just one metre – sets a new and welcome transparency benchmark,” Airwars noted. “We appreciate the US-led Coalition’s decision to release this important material, which should help affected Iraqis and Syrians to secure some closure following tragic losses within their families.”
What the data shows
In August 2014 the US-led coalition began bombing so-called Islamic State after militants had seized large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq. Millions of civilians were trapped in a brutal war that lasted several years, with fighting often taking place in heavily built-up neighbourhoods.
Over the years the US-led Coalition has admitted many hundreds of civilian deaths from its own actions – though identifying exactly where these took place has been a major challenge.
The release to Airwars of hundreds of coordinates of Credible incidents – most accurate to within 100 metres and some to within just one metre – is believed to be the most comprehensive locational civilian casualty data ever released by the US military.
Airwars has now added a new mapping and research tool to its website, The Credibles, which comprehensively maps all located incidents across both Iraq and Syria. The data has also been visualised in partnership with The Washington Post.
The locational data provided by the US military is, Airwars believes, unique. No previous belligerent is thought to have revealed at scale – either during or after a war – exactly where and when it has harmed civilians.
Using the US Department of Defense’s preferred Military Grid Reference System (MGRS), 70 of these Credible civilian harm events have now been publicly geolocated by the Coalition to an accuracy of just one metre squared, with all additional events geolocated to an accuracy of a one hundred metre square box.
Many of these incidents have already been well documented by affected communities themselves, with associated photographs, videos, and eyewitness narratives. Airwars also presently lists the names of more than 900 victims from these located events.
Just three of 344 confirmed Coalition civilian casualty incidents have been omitted from the data release. One recent case involved Coalition ground troops in Iraq, suggesting possibly sensitive Special Forces operations. Another event is still being queried with US Central Command (CENTCOM). The third case is the sole British-confirmed anti ISIS event, from March 2018 – with the UK Ministry of Defence still declining to release any locational information.
The civilian casualty assessment process
More than 29,600 civilians have locally been alleged killed by US-led Coalition actions in Iraq and Syria since 2014, according to Airwars monitoring of local populations. The US was initially slow to engage – with just three civilian harm events confirmed by CENTCOM in the first 16 months of the war.
Beginning in 2016, the process of casualty assessments by the US military became more systematised – in part as a result of an increased focus on casualty mitigation by the Obama administration during its last months in office; and in part because of pressure from Airwars and other NGOs, which between them were tracking local allegations of civilian harm from Inherent Resolve actions in both Iraq and Syria.
CENTCOM established a permanent civilian casualty assessment team at Tampa covering the war against ISIS in mid 2016, and began publishing more regular public reports on confirmed civilian harm events. An additional 60 Credible incidents were admitted that year, for example.
In December 2016, the Coalition took over civilian casualty assessments from CENTCOM (although almost all personnel continued to be drawn from US forces.) The US-led alliance also began publishing monthly civilian harm assessments – which continue today. In total, CENTCOM and the Coalition have now assessed almost 3,000 alleged civilian harm events in the war against ISIS, to date confirming as Credible some 344 of these incidents.
Around one in four of these Credible events have resulted directly from Airwars referrals to the Coalition, meaning that without local reporting by affected communities – and the patient work of Airwars’ own Syrian and Iraqi researchers collating and preserving those reports – the events would not have come to light.
The challenges of properly locating Credible events
While the confirming of multiple civilian casualties in Iraq and Syria by CENTCOM and the Coalition was generally well received, there were often significant challenges in properly identifying the location of such events.
Press releases issued via military public affairs teams only tagged a Credible event to the nearest large population centre. In the September 2017 report for example, the Coalition declared a major confirmed civilian harm event in Mosul: “March 14, 2017, near Mosul, Iraq, via media report: During a strike on ISIS fighters engaging partner forces from a fighting position, it was assessed that 27 civilians in an adjacent structure were unintentionally killed.”
The month of March 2017 saw very heavy fighting at Mosul. Airwars tracked five separate claimed civilian harm events in the city for March 14th alone (two of them mass casualty incidents), with some days seeing more than a dozen allegations. Without the correct coordinates, affected Moslawis could never know whether their loved ones were (or were not) affected by particular strikes.
For the March 14th 2017 event cited above, Coalition officials eventually provided Airwars with coordinates in Mosul accurate to within just one metre (38SLF2901422174), confirming that the event took place in the neighbourhood of al Jadida. The challenge was whether such precise data could now be acquired for all confirmed events.
Such data could also help to prise open the door on possible restitution for civilian harm from US and Coalition actions in Iraq and Syria. According to the Pentagon, only six ex gratia payments were made to Iraqis during 2019, compared with more than 600 such awards for Afghanistan. Poor public locational data from Operation Inherent Resolve for confirmed civilian harm events has majorly hampered the ability of Iraqis and Syrians to pursue claims – until now.
Securing the locational data
Following a face to face meeting with senior officials in Tampa in May 2016, CENTCOM and Airwars began regularly sharing data on civilian casualty allegations, in order to improve understanding, on both sides, of reported non combatant harm. That relationship has continued, with sometimes weekly confidential engagements between the Coalition’s CIVCAS Cell and the Airwars military advocacy team, involving granular queries from both parties.
CENTCOM also began sharing with Airwars occasional precise locational data for Credible events in mid 2016, in order better to clarify particular cases. Over time this became more systematised.
Alongside its monthly public press releases, the Coalition for several years provided Airwars with a private, annotated version of the monthly release, which both identified the geolocation of the event – and also, where possible, specifically cross matched Credible incidents to coded events already in the Airwars database. This locational information was provided by CJTFOIR on the expectation that Airwars would make it public through its own database of civilian harm events.
By early 2018 the Coalition was consistently providing MGRS data every month to Airwars for both Credible and later, for ‘Non Credible’ events. However this still left 126 historical confirmed cases for which Airwars had no locational data.
In early 2019, Airwars asked both the Coalition and the US Department of Defense to release this information – arguing that the alliance’s significant transparency in confirming civilian harm cases was being weakened by our then being unable publicly to determine where such cases had actually occurred. It was also argued that the US could better distinguish itself from Russia and other belligerents, who instead chose to hide or deny civilian harm from their own actions.
The missing locational data was provided to Airwars in Summer 2019 by the Coalition’s civilian casualty assessment team – a major step forward for transparency and public accountability. Later that year, the Coalition also began publishing MGRS data as part of its regular monthly public reporting.
Visualising the data
The Credibles dataset offers significant potential for visualisations, allowing for each confirmed US and allied civilian harm event in both Iraq and Syria to be precisely mapped and timelined. Additionally, each event can be cross matched to an associated Airwars incident report. More than 900 victim names are linked, along with associated photographs, videos, witness statements, and satellite imagery analysis of bomb sites.
Airwars has built a new subsite illustrating the remarkable potential of this unique transparency dataset. Each US-led Coalition Credible event has been precisely mapped down to at least 100 metres, and timelined across the war.
“The significance of this information for the affected communities led us to create an interface that would make the dataset easily accessible, and represent the information in a way that reflected its accuracy,” says Lizzie Malcolm of Scottish-American design team Rectangle, which conceived the new subsite.
The Credibles data sets a new benchmark for US military accountability for civilian harm. It’s hoped that the release of such accurate geolocational data can now become standard both for the US military and its allies.