climateetc--2020-10-04--How we fool ourselves

How we fool ourselves

While I have been very busy , I have kept the Denizen ’ s entertained with threads on politics and cancel culture .
Lets face it , that stuff has been on all of our minds lately , not to mention Covid-19 .
The few climate science threads that I ’ ve managed have been relatively ignored in terms of comments .
Here is a brief window to get back to the roots of Climate Etc .
I would appreciate the help of the Denizens in fleshing out something that I am writing .
Here is the text that I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ principle is that you must not fool yourself , and you are the easiest person too fool.
” – physicist Richard Feynman Cognitive biases relate to self-deception that leads to incorrect conclusions based on cognitive factors , including information-processing shortcuts ( heuristics ) ( Tversky and Kahnemann 1974 ) .
Cognitive biases can abound when reasoning and making judgments about a complex problem such as climate change .
Cognitive biases affecting belief formation that are of particular relevance to the science of climate change include : • Confirmation bias : the tendency to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way that confirms one ’ s preconceptions • Anchoring bias : the tendency to rely too heavily on one trait or piece of information , such as the mean or previous results .
• Framing bias : using an approach that is too narrow that pre-ordains the conclusion • Illusory correlations : false identification of relationships with rare or novel occurrences • Ambiguity effect : the tendency to avoid options for which the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown • Self-serving bias : a tendency for people to evaluate information in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • Belief bias : evaluating the logical strength of an argument based on belief in the truth or falsity of the conclusion • Availability heuristic : The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater ‘ availability ’ in memory , which can be influenced by how recent the memories are or how unusual or emotionally charged they may be A fallacy is logically incorrect reasoning that undermines the logical validity of the argument and leads to its assessment as unsound .
There are many different classifications of fallacies .
Below are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ used in arguments about climate science : • Begging the question is a fallacy occurring in deductive reasoning in which the proposition to be proved is assumed implicitly or explicitly in one of the premises .
• Correlation implies causation is a logical fallacy by which two events that occur together are claimed to be cause and effect .
• Fallacy of distribution occurs when an argument assumes that what is true of the members is true of the class ( composition ) , or what is true of the class is true @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • Hasty generalization is the logical fallacy of reaching an inductive generalization based on too little evidence .
• Statistical special pleading occurs when the interpretation of the relevant statistic is ‘ massaged ’ by looking for ways to reclassify or requantify data from one portion of results , but not applying the same scrutiny to other categories .
• Fallacy of the single cause occurs when it is assumed that there is one simple cause of an outcome when in reality it may have been caused by a number of only jointly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fallacies is not about how we fool ourselves , but how we try to fool others .
Examples of intentional fallacies used routinely in the public debate on climate change include : • Diverting the argument to unrelated issues with a red herring ( ignoratio elenchi ) • Ad hominem fallacy : asserting that an argument is wrong because of something discreditable/not authoritative about the person making the argument .
• Appeal to motive : challenging a thesis by calling into question the motives of its proposer .
• Creating a ‘ false @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which the situation is oversimplified • Appeal to consequences of belief ( argumentum ad consequentiam ) : an appeal to emotion that concludes a hypothesis or belief to be either true or false based on whether the premise leads to desirable or undesirable consequences .
I could use some help fleshing out each of these bullet points with examples from climate change , preferably with specific web links either to journal articles or media/blog articles .
Lets see how this works .
This is a technical thread for which comments will be moderated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ your help with this !

by Judith Curry
Crowd sourcing examples of fallacious thinking from climate science.
While I have been very busy, I have kept the Denizen’s entertained with threads on politics and cancel culture. Lets face it, that stuff has been on all of our minds lately, not to mention Covid-19. The few climate science threads that I’ve managed have been relatively ignored in terms of comments.
Here is a brief window to get back to the roots of Climate Etc. I would appreciate the help of the Denizens in fleshing out something that I am writing. Here is the text that I have so far:
———————-
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person too fool.” – physicist Richard Feynman
Cognitive biases relate to self-deception that leads to incorrect conclusions based on cognitive factors, including information-processing shortcuts (heuristics) (Tversky and Kahnemann 1974). Cognitive biases can abound when reasoning and making judgments about a complex problem such as climate change.
Cognitive biases affecting belief formation that are of particular relevance to the science of climate change include:
Confirmation bias: the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions
Anchoring bias: the tendency to rely too heavily on one trait or piece of information, such as the mean or previous results.
Framing bias: using an approach that is too narrow that pre-ordains the conclusion
Overconfidence effect: unjustified, excessive belief
Illusory correlations: false identification of relationships with rare or novel occurrences
Ambiguity effect: the tendency to avoid options for which the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown
Self-serving bias: a tendency for people to evaluate information in a way that is beneficial to their interests
Belief bias: evaluating the logical strength of an argument based on belief in the truth or falsity of the conclusion
Availability heuristic: The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater ‘availability’ in memory, which can be influenced by how recent the memories are or how unusual or emotionally charged they may be
A fallacy is logically incorrect reasoning that undermines the logical validity of the argument and leads to its assessment as unsound. There are many different classifications of fallacies. Below are some fallacies that I’ve seen used in arguments about climate science:
Begging the question is a fallacy occurring in deductive reasoning in which the proposition to be proved is assumed implicitly or explicitly in one of the premises.
Correlation implies causation is a logical fallacy by which two events that occur together are claimed to be cause and effect.
Fallacy of distribution occurs when an argument assumes that what is true of the members is true of the class (composition), or what is true of the class is true of its members (division).
Hasty generalization is the logical fallacy of reaching an inductive generalization based on too little evidence.
Statistical special pleading occurs when the interpretation of the relevant statistic is ‘massaged’ by looking for ways to reclassify or requantify data from one portion of results, but not applying the same scrutiny to other categories.
Fallacy of the single cause occurs when it is assumed that there is one simple cause of an outcome when in reality it may have been caused by a number of only jointly sufficient causes.
The category of intentional fallacies is not about how we fool ourselves, but how we try to fool others. Examples of intentional fallacies used routinely in the public debate on climate change include:
Diverting the argument to unrelated issues with a red herring(ignoratio elenchi)
Ad hominem fallacy: asserting that an argument is wrong because of something discreditable/not authoritative about the person making the argument.
Appeal to motive: challenging a thesis by calling into question the motives of its proposer.
Asserting that everyone agrees (argumentum ad populum, bandwagoning)
Creating a ‘false dilemma’ (either-or fallacy) in which the situation is oversimplified
Selectively using facts (card stacking)
Making false or misleading comparisons (false equivalence and false analogy)
Appeal to consequences of belief (argumentum ad consequentiam): an appeal to emotion that concludes a hypothesis or belief to be either true or false based on whether the premise leads to desirable or undesirable consequences.
I could use some help fleshing out each of these bullet points with examples from climate change, preferably with specific web links either to journal articles or media/blog articles.
Lets see how this works. This is a technical thread for which comments will be moderated ruthlessly for relevance.
Thanks much for your help with this!
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climateetc--2020-09-22--Herd immunity to COVID-19 and pre-existing immune responses

I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce , in my view probably very substantially , the herd immunity threshold ( HIT ) , beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat .
I opined , based on my modelling , that the HIT probably lay somewhere between 7 % and 24 % , and that evidence from Stockholm County suggested it was around 17 % there , and had been reached .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ update article [ 1 ] that mounting evidence supported my reasoning .
It is pleasing to report that the evidence for heterogeneity of susceptibility across the population , arising from variability in both social connectivity and biological susceptibility , has continued to increase .
Not least , there have been a number of further papers reporting pre-existing cross-reactive T-cells in a substantial proportion of people , which as I discussed in my July 27th article is likely be a key reason for heterogeneity in biological susceptibility .
Mainstream journals are now starting to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the implication that the herd immunity threshold ( HIT ) can be expected to be substantially lower than that often quoted by scientists close to governments .
Unfortunately , in the UK at least , there is little sign as yet that those scientific advisors are prepared to recognise these facts .
[ 2 ] [ 3 ] Here I will focus excerpt on statements in a recent , quite hard hitting , feature article in the British Medical Journal by one of its associate editors .
[ 4 ] The article @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that no more than around a fifth of people now have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 , saying : As the article says , this has led most planners to assume that the pandemic is far from over : It also points out that the WHO and the CDC has been repeating mistakes that they made and recognised in the past , suggesting a lack of scientific competence ( unless explainable by a prioritising of other objectives over scientific ones ) .
In late 2009 , months after the World Health Organization declared the H1N1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a global pandemic , Alessandro Sette was part of a team working to explain why the so called “ novel ” virus did not seem to be causing more severe infections than seasonal flu .
Their answer was pre-existing immunological responses in the adult population : B cells and , in particular , T cells , which “ are known to blunt disease severity.
” Other studies came to the same conclusion : people with pre-existing reactive T cells had less severe H1N1 disease .
In addition , a study carried out during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Disease Control and Prevention reported that 33 % of people over 60 years old had cross reactive antibodies to the 2009 H1N1 virus , leading the CDC to conclude that “ some degree of pre-existing immunity ” to the new H1N1 strains existed , especially among adults over age 60 .
The data forced a change in views at WHO and CDC , from an assumption before 2009 that most people “ will have no immunity to the pandemic virus ” to one that acknowledged that “ the vulnerability of a population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part to the level of pre-existing immunity to the virus.
” But by 2020 it seems that lesson had been forgotten .
Regarding pre-existing T-cell mediated immunological responses to SARS-CoV-2 , the article quotes Alessandro Sette , an immunologist from La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California and an author of several of the studies : As the article says , the T-cell evidence suggests that antibodies are not the full story , in relation to which it gives this quotation : and comments that studies by Buggert and others have shown that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SARS-CoV-2 generate T-cell responses but no antibodies .
The article makes the telling point that : The article also discusses the fact that the classical formula HIT = 1 − 1/R ( where R is the disease ’ s basic reproduction number ) assumes that immunity ( the complement of biological susceptibility ) is distributed evenly and members mix at random , saying : The author quotes Gabriella Gomes , noting that she and her colleagues wrote : and points out that The article further notes that Sunetra Gupta ’ s group at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ similar conclusions of lower herd immunity thresholds by considering the issue of pre-existing immunity in the population .
The author also quotes Ulrich Keil , professor emeritus of epidemiology from the University of Münster in Germany , as saying that ignores the large disparities in health and social conditions in populations .
As so often , the case of Sweden is brought up , in this quotation : Social distancing will reduce the R level of an epidemic and thus , while it continues , with reduce the HIT .
The fact that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minor therefore means that the epidemic ’ s recent behaviour there should provide a better guide to the HIT in the absence of social distancing than its behaviour in many other countries .
Supporting Marcus Buggert ’ s comments , that in Stockholm ( a densely populated region where R will be higher than average ) the epidemic is almost extinct and social distancing is now minor , are these recent comments from a hospital doctor [ 5 ] in Stockholm : In the hospital where I work , there isn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ covid .
I haven ’ t seen a single covid patient in the Emergency Room in over two and a half months .
My personal experience is that people followed the voluntary restrictions pretty well at the beginning , but that they have become increasingly lax as time has gone on .
When I sit in the tube on the way to and from work , it is packed with people .
Maybe one in a hundred people is choosing to wear a face mask in public .
In Stockholm , life is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look at the front pages of the tabloids , on many days there isn ’ t a single mention of covid anywhere .
Covid is over in Sweden .
We have herd immunity .
In Sweden , the epidemic gradually spread throughout the country from its original centre in Stockholm , with different regions seeing differently timed surges in cases , almost all of which have now tailed off despite national seroprevalence estimates of only 5-6 % .
[ 6 ] However , it looks as if in countries such as the UK @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s spread from its original centre to regional metropolitan centres , where the epidemic is growing now that young people in particular no longer fear COVID-19 much .
Nevertheless , serious illness and deaths remain rare in the UK ; in recent weeks only 1 % of death certificates have any mention of COVID-19 [ 7 ] .
Returning to the T-cell immunity issue , the BMJ article further comments : Although noting that these epidemiologists added the qualification that this hypothesis is currently unproven , the article quotes Daniela Weiskopf ( the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earlier ) as commenting : As the paper says , one example is swine flu , where research has shown that people with pre-existing reactive T cells had clinically milder disease .
In conclusion , it is encouraging to see an article like this in an medical establishment journal like BMJ .
I can only hope that epidemiologists , other scientists and modellers advising governments will now finally take seriously the issues that it raises .
[ 1 ] Lewis , N : Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ added on July 31st .
[ 2 ] For example : The academy of Medical Sciences 14 July 2020 report “ Preparing for a challenging winter 2020/21 ” appears to rely on modelling by Professor Ferguson and colleagues from Imperial College , whose models make little allowance for population heterogeneity of susceptibility https : //www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-preparing-for-a-challenging-winter-202021-7-july-2020 [ 4 ] Peter Doshi : “ COVID-19 : Do many people have pre-existing immunity ?
” BMJ 2020 ; 370 : m3563 https : //dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3563 [ 6 ] https : //www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/376f9021a4c84da08de18ac597284f0c/pavisning-antikroppar-genomgangen-covid-19-blodgivare-delrapport-2.pdf The latest published estimate is 5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have grown since then but based on disease incidence seems likely to have remained under 10 % .
Originally posted here , where a pdf copy is also available

By Nic Lewis
I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. I opined, based on my modelling, that the HIT probably lay somewhere between 7% and 24%, and that evidence from Stockholm County suggested it was around 17% there, and had been reached.
I then showed in a July 27th update article[1] that mounting evidence supported my reasoning.
It is pleasing to report that the evidence for heterogeneity of susceptibility across the population, arising from variability in both social connectivity and biological susceptibility, has continued to increase. Not least, there have been a number of further papers reporting pre-existing cross-reactive T-cells in a substantial proportion of people, which as I discussed in my July 27th article is likely be a key reason for heterogeneity in biological susceptibility. Mainstream journals are now starting to acknowledge that these factors are significant, with the implication that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) can be expected to be substantially lower than that often quoted by scientists close to governments. Unfortunately, in the UK at least, there is little sign as yet that those scientific advisors are prepared to recognise these facts.[2] [3]
Here I will focus excerpt on statements in a recent, quite hard hitting, feature article in the British Medical Journal by one of its associate editors.[4]
The article points out serological studies have generally indicated that no more than around a fifth of people now have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, saying:
With public health responses around the world predicated on the assumption that the virus entered the human population with no pre-existing immunity before the pandemic, serosurvey data are leading many to conclude that the virus has, as Mike Ryan, WHO’s head of emergencies, put it, “a long way to burn.”
As the article says, this has led most planners to assume that the pandemic is far from over:
In New York City, where just over a fifth of people surveyed had antibodies, the health department concluded that “as this remains below herd immunity thresholds, monitoring, testing, and contact tracing remain essential public health strategies.” “Whatever that number is, we’re nowhere near close to it,” said WHO’s Ryan in late July, referring to the herd immunity threshold.
However, the article notes:
Yet a stream of studies that have documented SARS-CoV-2 reactive T cells in people without exposure to the virus are raising questions about just how new the pandemic virus really is, with many implications.
It also points out that the WHO and the CDC has been repeating mistakes that they made and recognised in the past, suggesting a lack of scientific competence (unless explainable by a prioritising of other objectives over scientific ones).
In late 2009, months after the World Health Organization declared the H1N1 “swine flu” virus to be a global pandemic, Alessandro Sette was part of a team working to explain why the so called “novel” virus did not seem to be causing more severe infections than seasonal flu. Their answer was pre-existing immunological responses in the adult population: B cells and, in particular, T cells, which “are known to blunt disease severity.” Other studies came to the same conclusion: people with pre-existing reactive T cells had less severe H1N1 disease. In addition, a study carried out during the 2009 outbreak by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that 33% of people over 60 years old had cross reactive antibodies to the 2009 H1N1 virus, leading the CDC to conclude that “some degree of pre-existing immunity” to the new H1N1 strains existed, especially among adults over age 60. The data forced a change in views at WHO and CDC, from an assumption before 2009 that most people “will have no immunity to the pandemic virus” to one that acknowledged that “the vulnerability of a population to a pandemic virus is related in part to the level of pre-existing immunity to the virus.” But by 2020 it seems that lesson had been forgotten.
Regarding pre-existing T-cell mediated immunological responses to SARS-CoV-2, the article quotes Alessandro Sette, an immunologist from La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California and an author of several of the studies:
At this point there are a number of studies that are seeing this reactivity in different continents, different labs. As a scientist you know that is a hallmark of something that has a very strong footing.” It also notes that a paper in Science confirmed its authors’ hypothesis that, because they’re closely related, the origin of these immune responses would be ‘common cold’ coronaviruses.
As the article says, the T-cell evidence suggests that antibodies are not the full story, in relation to which it gives this quotation:
“Maybe we were a little naive to take measurements such as serology testing to look at how many people were infected with the virus,” the Karolinska Institute immunologist Marcus Buggert told The BMJ. “Maybe there is more immunity out there.”
and comments that studies by Buggert and others have shown that many people who have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 generate T-cell responses but no antibodies.
The article makes the telling point that:
Taken together, this growing body of research documenting pre-existing immunological responses to SARS-CoV-2may force pandemic planners to revisit some of their foundational assumptions about how to measure population susceptibility and monitor the extent of epidemic spread.
The article also discusses the fact that the classical formula HIT = 1 − 1/R 0 (where R 0 is the disease’s basic reproduction number) assumes that immunity (the complement of biological susceptibility) is distributed evenly and members mix at random, saying:
While vaccines may be deliverable in a near random fashion, from the earliest days questions were raised about the random mixing assumption. Fox and colleagues wrote in 1971 [that] truly random mixing is the exception, not the rule.
The author quotes Gabriella Gomes, noting that she and her colleagues wrote:
More susceptible and more connected individuals have a higher propensity to be infected and thus are likely to become immune earlier. Due to this selective immunization by natural infection, heterogeneous populations require less infections to cross their herd immunity threshold.
and points out that
While most experts have taken the R0 for SARS-CoV-2 (generally estimated to be between 2 and 3) and concluded that at least 50% of people need to be immune before herd immunity is reached, Gomes and colleagues calculate the threshold at 10% to 20%.
The article further notes that Sunetra Gupta’s group at the University of Oxford has arrived at similar conclusions of lower herd immunity thresholds by considering the issue of pre-existing immunity in the population.
The author also quotes Ulrich Keil, professor emeritus of epidemiology from the University of Münster in Germany, as saying
the notion of randomly distributed immunity is a “very naive assumption”
that ignores the large disparities in health and social conditions in populations.
As so often, the case of Sweden is brought up, in this quotation:
Buggert’s home country has been at the forefront of the herd immunity debate, with Sweden’s light touch strategy against the virus resulting in much scrutiny and scepticism. The epidemic in Sweden does seem to be declining, Buggert said in August. “We have much fewer cases right now. We have around 50 people hospitalised with covid-19 in a city of two million people.” At the peak of the epidemic there were thousands of cases. Something must have happened, said Buggert, particularly considering that social distancing was “always poorly followed, and it’s only become worse.”
Social distancing will reduce the R 0 level of an epidemic and thus, while it continues, with reduce the HIT. The fact that social distancing in Sweden has become relatively minor therefore means that the epidemic’s recent behaviour there should provide a better guide to the HIT in the absence of social distancing than its behaviour in many other countries. Supporting Marcus Buggert’s comments, that in Stockholm (a densely populated region where R 0 will be higher than average) the epidemic is almost extinct and social distancing is now minor, are these recent comments from a hospital doctor[5] in Stockholm:
In the hospital where I work, there isn’t a single person currently being treated for covid. I haven’t seen a single covid patient in the Emergency Room in over two and a half months. My personal experience is that people followed the voluntary restrictions pretty well at the beginning, but that they have become increasingly lax as time has gone on. When I sit in the tube on the way to and from work, it is packed with people. Maybe one in a hundred people is choosing to wear a face mask in public. In Stockholm, life is largely back to normal. If you look at the front pages of the tabloids, on many days there isn’t a single mention of covid anywhere. Covid is over in Sweden. We have herd immunity.
In Sweden, the epidemic gradually spread throughout the country from its original centre in Stockholm, with different regions seeing differently timed surges in cases, almost all of which have now tailed off despite national seroprevalence estimates of only 5-6%.[6] However, it looks as if in countries such as the UK lockdowns may have impeded the epidemic’s spread from its original centre to regional metropolitan centres, where the epidemic is growing now that young people in particular no longer fear COVID-19 much. Nevertheless, serious illness and deaths remain rare in the UK; in recent weeks only 1% of death certificates have any mention of COVID-19[7].
Returning to the T-cell immunity issue, the BMJ article further comments:
The immunologists I spoke to agreed that T cells could be a key factor that explains why places like New York, London, and Stockholm seem to have experienced a wave of infections and no subsequent resurgence. This would be because protective levels of immunity, not measurable through serology alone but instead the result of a combination of pre-existing and newly formed immune responses, could now exist in the population, preventing an epidemic rise in new infections.
Although noting that these epidemiologists added the qualification that this hypothesis is currently unproven, the article quotes Daniela Weiskopf (the senior author of the Science paper mentioned earlier) as commenting:
Right now, I think everything is a possibility; we just don’t know. The reason we’re optimistic is we have seen with other viruses where [the T cell response] actually helps you.”
As the paper says, one example is swine flu, where research has shown that people with pre-existing reactive T cells had clinically milder disease.
.
In conclusion, it is encouraging to see an article like this in an medical establishment journal like BMJ. I can only hope that epidemiologists, other scientists and modellers advising governments will now finally take seriously the issues that it raises.
Nicholas Lewis 22 September 2020
[1] Lewis, N: Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update; with further update added on July 31st.
[2] For example: The academy of Medical Sciences 14 July 2020 report “Preparing for a challenging winter 2020/21” appears to rely on modelling by Professor Ferguson and colleagues from Imperial College, whose models make little allowance for population heterogeneity of susceptibility https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-preparing-for-a-challenging-winter-202021-7-july-2020
[3] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54234084
[4] Peter Doshi: “COVID-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity?” BMJ 2020;370:m3563 https://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3563
[5] https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/
[6] https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/376f9021a4c84da08de18ac597284f0c/pavisning-antikroppar-genomgangen-covid-19-blodgivare-delrapport-2.pdf The latest published estimate is 5% for week 22; it may have grown since then but based on disease incidence seems likely to have remained under 10%.
[7] https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek372020.xlsx
Originally posted here, where a pdf copy is also available
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FIRE

Subtitle : our failure to live in harmony with nature .
I ’ m taking a breather today from nonstop hurricane stuff .
Well , ‘ breather ’ may not be quite the right word .
As I ’ m writing this , I ’ m looking out into the smoke from the California fires that are blowing into Reno ( not to mention much of the rest of the U.S. ) .
Schools in Reno are supposed to be open ( they have a good COVID protocol ) , but have been closed more than half the time for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quality from the fires .
The mantra from global warming activists that manmade global warming is causing the fires , and therefore fossil fuels must be eliminated , is rather tiresome , not to mention misses the most important factors .
More importantly , even if global warming is having some fractional impact on the wildfires , reducing fossil fuels would fractionally impact the fires but only a time scale of many decades hence .
Here are some of the more intelligent articles that I ’ ve seen on the California fires .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ trees could fuel unprecedented firestorms in the Sierra Nevada .
Excerpts : The Creek fire is burning in the Sierra National Forest , an epicenter of the bark beetle attacks that killed nearly 150 million drought-stressed trees during the last decade .
“ All of us on the paper were suggesting that if you are going to try to reduce that mass fire problem in the future , you really need to start putting prescribed fire into these stands to start whittling away at those bigger fuels , ” While thinning — cutting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ away — can play a role , especially around mountain communities , North said a majority of the beetle-killed stands are in wilderness or in areas that are too remote and too steep to be logged .
Moreover , the dead trees have lost most of their commercial value and are of little interest to the remaining sawmills in California .
Fire ecologists have long pointed to the mid-elevation pine and mixed-conifer belt of the Sierra Nevada as a place desperately in need of the frequent , low-intensity burns that shaped the forest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fire suppression policies snuffed them out .
The elimination of indigenous fire practices , logging of the biggest and most fire-resistant trees and fire suppression produced an overgrown forest vulnerable to bark beetle attacks during the severe California drought of 2012-16 .
Some areas have 500 to 800 trees per acre , compared with 60 to 100 pre-settlement .
The beetle toll was the greatest in the densest stands .
There dead fuel will keep piling up for years to come .
Prescribed fire programs aren ’ t getting the staffing and money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Forest Service offices .
“ We have a culture , and our society , that make it difficult ” to return fire to its proper place in the Sierra , he said .
“ I can ’ t tell you how many times we had burns and had to shut down a campground and people were upset because we were ruining their vacation , ” he recalled .
“ We had to explain we are trying to make this a place to come back to in the future.
” From the Mercury News @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agree to thin millions of acres of forests .
Excerpts : The two dozen major fires burning across Northern California were sparked by more than 12,000 lightning strikes , a freak weather occurrence that turned what had been a relatively mild fire season into a devastating catastrophe .
Yet what ’ s driving these enormous fires is not sparks , but millions of acres of fuel : bone-dry trees and brush that haven ’ t burned in many years .
Under the plan , California agencies and the U.S. Forest Service will use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to thin out 1 million acres a year by 2025 — an area larger than Yosemite National Park every 12 months , and roughly double the current rate of thinning , which already is double rates from a few years ago .
But the plan is not without complications .
Environmental regulations will need to be streamlined , particularly permits for landowners with small parcels to thin trees and brush on their properties .
Some residents complain about controlled burns because they put smoke in the air and spike hospital visits from people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will need to be found for millions of tons of dead brush and small trees that will be removed from forests , much of which has little lumber value .
Some can be used to make chipboard and other forest products .
There are hopes some can be made into biofuels .
The material also can be burned at biomass plants to make electricity , but those are polluting and controversial in many communities .
Otherwise , crews pile up dead brush in the forest during spring and winter months and burn it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it will cost hundreds of millions of dollars every year .
Environmental groups say they generally support the more aggressive thinning plan .
But they have concerns .
Article by Michael Schellenberger , California ha always had fires , ENvironmental Alarmism Makes Them Worse than Necessary .
Worth reading .
An excellent article from OregonLive entitled Oregon ’ s historic wildfires : unusual but not unprecedented .
Excerpts : The “ east wind event ” that conspired with existing drought conditions to blow up two low-level fires and other human-caused ignitions last Monday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and fire experts say .
The winds were the main culprit in making the catastrophic infernos as fast moving as they were .
The windstorm and resulting fire danger were forecast days in advance , but with little appreciable effect .
The prospect of widespread forest treatments in the complex ecosystems of the west side – establishing fire breaks and using thinning and prescribed burns to reduce the fuels that choke forest floors – is environmentally unthinkable to some , and impractical to others .
That leaves Oregon facing the paradox of relying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on every fire and putting it out immediately is the practice that helped create the problem in the first place .
Alternatively , Oregon can turn to other , easier measures .
It could adopt policies requiring more frequent pre-emptive blackouts by utilities so that downed power lines do not spark fires .
Or the state could force updated building codes , regulations on defensible space near structures , and incorporate wildfire risk in land-use planning and zoning .
But those policies won ’ t stop big fires and are contentious , too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state , as well as legislation to modernize and bolster the Oregon Department of Forestry ’ s ability to put down wildfires quickly , went nowhere .
The idea of human-set fire is also apt .
Most of the fires burning in Western Oregon today were not caused by lightning , which doesn ’ t occur during the atmospheric conditions in place Monday .
Officials have yet to identify the cause for most of the blazes , saying they are under investigation .
But with population increases , particularly in what fire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ percent of fires in Oregon today are human caused , and earlier this summer , the percentage was 90 percent , according the Oregon Department of Forestry .
It is feasible that Oregonians can agree on some of the wildfire mitigation and adaptation strategies that the council recommended .
Among many others , they include updating building codes , increasing enforceable requirements on defensible space , incorporating wildfire risk in land-use planning and zoning.But those recommendations aren ’ t universally popular either .
Should the requirements apply to new construction vs. retrofits of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ communities benefit ?
Do you adopt penalties for neighbors who don ’ t comply with defensible space ?
” This image is from the Oregon Department of forestry .
Click on the diagram to blow it up , you can see the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO ) .
This is a superb article in the NYTimes , entitled Australia ’ s Witnesses to Fire ’ s Fury and Desperate to Avoid a Sequel .
Liberal excerpts ( since behind paywall ) : “ Ms .
Taylor Mills is one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first time to local Aboriginal fire experts for help with controlled burns that aim to make the land that didn ’ t get scorched last year less of a threat .
Others , in areas that did burn , have been busy raking up branches and dead trees for preventive burns of their own .
Land clearing has become more common than barbecues .
Calls to 000 , the equivalent of 911 , have been flooding in as people report both preventive burns by their neighbors and those who fail to clean their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government is actually giving landowners more responsibility .
State fire officials recently adopted a series of recommendationsf rom an independent fire inquiry , including a measure requiring that people ensure their properties are safe by clearing land and conducting hazard-reduction burns .
Further changes , to allow for more preventive burning by firefighters and Aboriginal experts , could arrive at the national level later this year .
Interest is already surging .
The Walbanja elders who worked with Ms. Taylor Mills — Andrew White , Owen Carriage and Les Simon — said they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help with burns that rely on Aboriginal knowledge to minimize the impact on animals and native plants .
“ When you ’ ve been living with the environment for thousands of years , you know how to read it , ” said Mr. Carriage , 67 , as he surveyed the burned grass on Ms. Taylor Mills ’ s property .
“ You ’ re a part of it .
And fire is a part of it.
” “ On the same theme , an article in The Conversation entitled The biggest estate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Australia .
Excerpts : “ Aboriginal people worked hard to make plants and animals abundant , convenient and predictable .
By distributing plants and associating them in mosaics , then using these to lure and locate animals , Aborigines made Australia as it was in 1788 , when Europeans arrived .
“ No fire ” because a conscious decision not to burn also regulates plants and animals .
They judged equally what to burn and what not , when , how often , and how hot .
They cleared undergrowth , and they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in dense and open forest , and tree or scrub clumps in grassland .
Put simply , farming peoples see differently .
Like our draught horses , we wear the blinkers agriculture imposes .
Australia is not like the northern Europe from which most early settlers came .
Burn Australia ’ s perennials and they come back green ; burn Europe ’ s annuals and they die .
Again , you can predictably lure and locate Australia ’ s animals because there were almost no predators , whereas Europe ’ s many predators @ @ @ @ @ @ @ using fire to locate resources was foreign there .
But above all we don ’ t see because farmers don ’ t think like hunter-gatherers .
For us “ wilderness ” lies just beyond our boundaries ; for them wilderness does not exist .
Until Europeans came , Australia had no wilderness , and no terra nullius.
” We need to do a better job at living in harmony with nature .
One of the most thought provoking thinkers and journalists on this topic is Dutch filmmaker Marijn Poels .
Marijn has a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
I ’ ve watched it , it is really good .
STUNNING cinematography .
This is mostly about agriculture and how different cultures relate to the land ( and how top-down policies mess things up ) .
The interviews were fascinating , my favorite was growing food in the Sinai Desert .
While you ’ re at it , also watch his previous two climate-related films : If there was ever a case for post-normal science , this is it .
I know , a lot of you get upset because you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ post-modern ’ or ‘ post-truth.
’ Well , ‘ normal ’ science ( such as it is ) tells us manmade global warming is causing the fires , with the inference that the solution is to stop burning fossil fuels .
The extended peer communities associated with post-normal science welcomes input from stakeholders and non-traditional experts such as the Aborigines .
American Indians should be a good source of wisdom on fires also .
The saga of Oregon politics surrounding fire reinforces that a broad range of stakeholders need to be involved in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is also much to be learned from the farmers and innovators interviewed in Return to Eden .
My company CFAN is in the process of rolling out our new Fire Weather Forecast Tool for the U.S .
Here is brief blurb , describing the new product [ Fire weather tool overview ] .
Check it out .

by Judith Curry
Subtitle: our failure to live in harmony with nature.
I’m taking a breather today from nonstop hurricane stuff. Well, ‘breather’ may not be quite the right word.
As I’m writing this, I’m looking out into the smoke from the California fires that are blowing into Reno (not to mention much of the rest of the U.S.). Schools in Reno are supposed to be open (they have a good COVID protocol), but have been closed more than half the time for the past month owing to bad air quality from the fires.
The mantra from global warming activists that manmade global warming is causing the fires, and therefore fossil fuels must be eliminated, is rather tiresome, not to mention misses the most important factors. More importantly, even if global warming is having some fractional impact on the wildfires, reducing fossil fuels would fractionally impact the fires but only a time scale of many decades hence.
California
Here are some of the more intelligent articles that I’ve seen on the California fires.
From the LATimes: 150 million dead trees could fuel unprecedented firestorms in the Sierra Nevada. Excerpts:
The Creek fire is burning in the Sierra National Forest, an epicenter of the bark beetle attacks that killed nearly 150 million drought-stressed trees during the last decade. “All of us on the paper were suggesting that if you are going to try to reduce that mass fire problem in the future, you really need to start putting prescribed fire into these stands to start whittling away at those bigger fuels,” While thinning — cutting down the dead timber and hauling it away — can play a role, especially around mountain communities, North said a majority of the beetle-killed stands are in wilderness or in areas that are too remote and too steep to be logged. Moreover, the dead trees have lost most of their commercial value and are of little interest to the remaining sawmills in California. Fire ecologists have long pointed to the mid-elevation pine and mixed-conifer belt of the Sierra Nevada as a place desperately in need of the frequent, low-intensity burns that shaped the forest before settlers and a century of government fire suppression policies snuffed them out. The elimination of indigenous fire practices, logging of the biggest and most fire-resistant trees and fire suppression produced an overgrown forest vulnerable to bark beetle attacks during the severe California drought of 2012-16. Some areas have 500 to 800 trees per acre, compared with 60 to 100 pre-settlement. The beetle toll was the greatest in the densest stands. There dead fuel will keep piling up for years to come. Prescribed fire programs aren’t getting the staffing and money they need from the regional and national Forest Service offices. “We have a culture, and our society, that make it difficult” to return fire to its proper place in the Sierra, he said. “I can’t tell you how many times we had burns and had to shut down a campground and people were upset because we were ruining their vacation,” he recalled. “We had to explain we are trying to make this a place to come back to in the future.”
From the Mercury News – California fires: State, feds agree to thin millions of acres of forests. Excerpts:
The two dozen major fires burning across Northern California were sparked by more than 12,000 lightning strikes, a freak weather occurrence that turned what had been a relatively mild fire season into a devastating catastrophe. Yet what’s driving these enormous fires is not sparks, but millions of acres of fuel: bone-dry trees and brush that haven’t burned in many years. Under the plan, California agencies and the U.S. Forest Service will use brush clearing, logging and prescribed fires to thin out 1 million acres a year by 2025 — an area larger than Yosemite National Park every 12 months, and roughly double the current rate of thinning, which already is double rates from a few years ago. But the plan is not without complications. Environmental regulations will need to be streamlined, particularly permits for landowners with small parcels to thin trees and brush on their properties. Some residents complain about controlled burns because they put smoke in the air and spike hospital visits from people with asthma. Also, more uses will need to be found for millions of tons of dead brush and small trees that will be removed from forests, much of which has little lumber value. Some can be used to make chipboard and other forest products. There are hopes some can be made into biofuels. The material also can be burned at biomass plants to make electricity, but those are polluting and controversial in many communities. Otherwise, crews pile up dead brush in the forest during spring and winter months and burn it when wildfire risk is low. And it will cost hundreds of millions of dollars every year. Environmental groups say they generally support the more aggressive thinning plan. But they have concerns.
Article by Michael Schellenberger, California ha always had fires, ENvironmental Alarmism Makes Them Worse than Necessary. Worth reading.
Oregon
An excellent article from OregonLive entitled Oregon’s historic wildfires: unusual but not unprecedented. Excerpts:
The “east wind event” that conspired with existing drought conditions to blow up two low-level fires and other human-caused ignitions last Monday is rare but hardly unique, academics and fire experts say. The winds were the main culprit in making the catastrophic infernos as fast moving as they were. The windstorm and resulting fire danger were forecast days in advance, but with little appreciable effect. The prospect of widespread forest treatments in the complex ecosystems of the west side – establishing fire breaks and using thinning and prescribed burns to reduce the fuels that choke forest floors – is environmentally unthinkable to some, and impractical to others. That leaves Oregon facing the paradox of relying on full fire suppression. But leaping on every fire and putting it out immediately is the practice that helped create the problem in the first place. Alternatively, Oregon can turn to other, easier measures. It could adopt policies requiring more frequent pre-emptive blackouts by utilities so that downed power lines do not spark fires. Or the state could force updated building codes, regulations on defensible space near structures, and incorporate wildfire risk in land-use planning and zoning. But those policies won’t stop big fires and are contentious, too. Bills to expand forest treatments across the state, as well as legislation to modernize and bolster the Oregon Department of Forestry’s ability to put down wildfires quickly, went nowhere. The idea of human-set fire is also apt. Most of the fires burning in Western Oregon today were not caused by lightning, which doesn’t occur during the atmospheric conditions in place Monday. Officials have yet to identify the cause for most of the blazes, saying they are under investigation. But with population increases, particularly in what fire experts call the wildland-urban interface, 70 percent of fires in Oregon today are human caused, and earlier this summer, the percentage was 90 percent, according the Oregon Department of Forestry. It is feasible that Oregonians can agree on some of the wildfire mitigation and adaptation strategies that the council recommended. Among many others, they include updating building codes, increasing enforceable requirements on defensible space, incorporating wildfire risk in land-use planning and zoning.But those recommendations aren’t universally popular either. Should the requirements apply to new construction vs. retrofits of existing homes? How to assure low-income communities benefit? Do you adopt penalties for neighbors who don’t comply with defensible space?”
This image is from the Oregon Department of forestry. Click on the diagram to blow it up, you can see the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
Australia
This is a superb article in the NYTimes, entitled Australia’s Witnesses to Fire’s Fury and Desperate to Avoid a Sequel. Liberal excerpts (since behind paywall):
“Ms. Taylor Mills is one of many who have turned for the first time to local Aboriginal fire experts for help with controlled burns that aim to make the land that didn’t get scorched last year less of a threat. Others, in areas that did burn, have been busy raking up branches and dead trees for preventive burns of their own. Land clearing has become more common than barbecues. Calls to 000, the equivalent of 911, have been flooding in as people report both preventive burns by their neighbors and those who fail to clean their property of brush and leaves. The government is actually giving landowners more responsibility. State fire officials recently adopted a series of recommendationsf rom an independent fire inquiry, including a measure requiring that people ensure their properties are safe by clearing land and conducting hazard-reduction burns. Further changes, to allow for more preventive burning by firefighters and Aboriginal experts, could arrive at the national level later this year. Interest is already surging. The Walbanja elders who worked with Ms. Taylor Mills — Andrew White, Owen Carriage and Les Simon — said they had received more than 60 requests for help with burns that rely on Aboriginal knowledge to minimize the impact on animals and native plants. “When you’ve been living with the environment for thousands of years, you know how to read it,” said Mr. Carriage, 67, as he surveyed the burned grass on Ms. Taylor Mills’s property. “You’re a part of it. And fire is a part of it.” “
On the same theme, an article in The Conversation entitled The biggest estate on Earth: how the Aborigines made Australia. Excerpts:
“Aboriginal people worked hard to make plants and animals abundant, convenient and predictable. By distributing plants and associating them in mosaics, then using these to lure and locate animals, Aborigines made Australia as it was in 1788, when Europeans arrived. “No fire” because a conscious decision not to burn also regulates plants and animals. They judged equally what to burn and what not, when, how often, and how hot. They cleared undergrowth, and they put grass on good soil, clearings in dense and open forest, and tree or scrub clumps in grassland. Put simply, farming peoples see differently. Like our draught horses, we wear the blinkers agriculture imposes. Australia is not like the northern Europe from which most early settlers came. Burn Australia’s perennials and they come back green; burn Europe’s annuals and they die. Again, you can predictably lure and locate Australia’s animals because there were almost no predators, whereas Europe’s many predators scattered prey, so the notion of using fire to locate resources was foreign there. But above all we don’t see because farmers don’t think like hunter-gatherers. For us “wilderness” lies just beyond our boundaries; for them wilderness does not exist. Until Europeans came, Australia had no wilderness, and no terra nullius.”
Living in harmony with nature
We need to do a better job at living in harmony with nature. One of the most thought provoking thinkers and journalists on this topic is Dutch filmmaker Marijn Poels. Marijn has a new documentary forthcoming entitled Return to Eden. I’ve watched it, it is really good. STUNNING cinematography. This is mostly about agriculture and how different cultures relate to the land (and how top-down policies mess things up). The interviews were fascinating, my favorite was growing food in the Sinai Desert.
Online release is Sept 17
While you’re at it, also watch his previous two climate-related films:
The Uncertainty has Settled
Paradogma
Post-normal science
If there was ever a case for post-normal science, this is it. I know, a lot of you get upset because you erroneously confuse ‘post-normal’ with ‘post-modern’ or ‘post-truth.’
Well, ‘normal’ science (such as it is) tells us manmade global warming is causing the fires, with the inference that the solution is to stop burning fossil fuels.
The extended peer communities associated with post-normal science welcomes input from stakeholders and non-traditional experts such as the Aborigines. American Indians should be a good source of wisdom on fires also.
The saga of Oregon politics surrounding fire reinforces that a broad range of stakeholders need to be involved in policy development and decision making.
There is also much to be learned from the farmers and innovators interviewed in Return to Eden.
CFAN’s fire forecasts
My company CFAN is in the process of rolling out our new Fire Weather Forecast Tool for the U.S. Here is brief blurb, describing the new product [Fire weather tool overview]. Check it out.
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climateetc--2020-09-10--COVID-19: evidence shows that transmission by schoolchildren is low

Much fuss has been made in the UK , not least by teachers ’ unions , about recommencing physical school attendance .
As this issue applies to many countries , I thought it worth highlighting research findings in Europe .
While it is evident that school age children can be infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus , it is extremely rare for them to become seriously ill with COVID-19 , and their risk of dying as a result of infection is almost zero .
The relevant issue is therefore how much children ’ s contribution to the spread of COVID-19 to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ children , is affected by school attendance .
A report last month “ COVID-19 in children and the role of school settings in COVID-19 transmission ” by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control analyses evidence from many countries and throws light on these questions .
Some key summary conclusions that it reaches on various important issues are as follows : Overview of outbreaks and transmission in childcare school settings : experiences from Member States [ i ] Overview of outbreaks and transmission in school settings : evidence from the literature What @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within the school setting ?
What is the evidence of transmission from children ( students ) to adults ( teacher/staff ) within the school setting ?
What is the evidence of transmission from adults ( teacher/staff ) to children ( students ) within the school setting ?
What is the evidence of transmission between adults ( teacher/staff ) within the school setting ?
What is the effect of school openings on transmission to the community/household ?
There was one outbreak in Israel after school reopening , however the sequence of infection was not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early in the epidemic , data there suggests that schools would be a minor source of infection for children : Evidence from EU/EEA countries that kept pre- and primary schools/day care open or reopened schools early on The ECDC report includes the following information : Iceland kept both childcare institutions and primary schools open throughout the spring term and the rates of SARS-CoV-2 in children under 15 years old remained low compared to rates in the older age groups .
Physical distancing rules did not apply to childcare institutions and primary school children @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see a sudden increase in their reproductive number or detect significant outbreaks , when primary schools and childcare facilities opened on 11 May , with moderately high notification rates at national level .
Children up to and including 12 years did not have to keep 1.5 metres apart from each other or from adults , and this measure was applied in childcare and primary education settings .
Children aged 13 to 18 years did not have to physically distance from one another .
Denmark reopened childcare and primary education on 15 April , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national level , and did not report any increase in the reproductive number , or detect important school outbreaks .
Denmark recommended splitting classes into smaller groups , keeping two metres between children , hand hygiene , and teaching more classes outside .
As in other areas , some of the most useful evidence involves Sweden , which never closed schools for children under 16 .
In July its Public Health Authority published a report ( English version here ) comparing COVID-19 in children between Sweden and Finland , where almost all physical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mid-May .
Key findings in the study are : Outbreak investigations in Finland have not shown children to be contributing much in terms of transmission : Impacts of school closures on the health and well-being of children The ECDC report also highlights some negative impacts of school closures on the health and well-being of children , on top of the harm to their education , saying : A number of organisations have identified various negative impacts on children ’ s wellbeing , learning opportunities and safety caused by school closures .
These range @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exacerbation of disparities and mental health issues to an increased risk of domestic violence .
The negative impacts particularly affect children from vulnerable and marginalised population groups .
Other health aspects , both physical and mental , also need consideration .
For many students living in poverty , schools are not only a place for learning , but also for healthy eating , and therefore researchers warn that school closures will exacerbate food insecurity .
Research has highlighted that the active social life that children aged 2–10 years have at school helps them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ positive impact on their personality and sense of identity , while disruptions of close peer relationships have been associated with depression , guilt , and anger in children .
Furthermore , school and extracurricular activities provide structure , meaning and a daily rhythm for children and youth .
For those suffering from anxiety and depression , the loss of such activities can worsen symptoms and reinforce social withdrawal and feelings of hopelessness .
The evidence shows that concerns about recommencing physical school attendance are misplaced , at least if moderate social distancing measures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only for child-adult contact ) are mandated .
It also seems pretty clear that the original decisions by almost all European countries to close schools were , in retrospect , ill-judged measures that caused more harm than good , at least in relation to children under 16 years old .
[ i ] Based on a survey of EU/EEA and UK countries , 15 of which responded .
[ ii ] In Sweden , the number of laboratory confirmed cases is affected by change in testing policy .
[ iii ] The relative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to that in other professions , was 0.9 for day care , 1.1 for primary school ( in neither case being statistically significant ) , and 0.7 for secondary school ( just significantly lower than 1 ) .
Originally posted here , where a pdf copy is also available

By Nic Lewis
Much fuss has been made in the UK, not least by teachers’ unions, about recommencing physical school attendance. As this issue applies to many countries, I thought it worth highlighting research findings in Europe.
While it is evident that school age children can be infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, it is extremely rare for them to become seriously ill with COVID-19, and their risk of dying as a result of infection is almost zero. The relevant issue is therefore how much children’s contribution to the spread of COVID-19 to adults, by themselves or via other children, is affected by school attendance.
A report last month “COVID-19 in children and the role of school settings in COVID-19 transmission” by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control analyses evidence from many countries and throws light on these questions. Some key summary conclusions that it reaches on various important issues are as follows:
Overview of outbreaks and transmission in childcare school settings: experiences from Member States[i]
In summary, clusters in educational facilities were identified in several of the 15 reporting countries, however those that occurred were limited in number and size, and were rather exceptional events. Several countries specifically said that they had no indication that school settings played a significant role in the transmission of COVID-19. Secondary transmission in schools, either from child-to-child or from child-to-adult, was perceived to be rare. Countries where schools had re-opened by the time of the survey stated that they had not seen an increase in cases in these settings.
Overview of outbreaks and transmission in school settings: evidence from the literature
What is the evidence of transmission between children within the school setting?
The conclusion from these investigations is that child-to-child transmission in schools is uncommon and not the primary cause of SARS-CoV-2 infection of children whose infection onset coincides with the period during which they are attending school.
What is the evidence of transmission from children (students) to adults (teacher/staff) within the school setting?
Where COVID-19 in children was detected and contacts followed-up, no adult contacts in the school setting have been detected as SARS-CoV-2 positive during the follow-up period. The conclusion from these investigations is that children are not the primary drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to adults in the school setting.
What is the evidence of transmission from adults (teacher/staff) to children (students) within the school setting?
While there is evidence of transmission from adults to children in household settings, there is little evidence of this occurring within the school setting.
What is the evidence of transmission between adults (teacher/staff) within the school setting?
The conclusion from these investigations is that adults are not at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 within the school setting than the risk in the community or household.
What is the effect of school openings on transmission to the community/household?
There is limited evidence that schools are driving transmission of COVID-19 within the community, however there are indications that community transmission is imported into or reflected in the school setting.
There was one outbreak in Israel after school reopening, however the sequence of infection was not reported. Although Ireland closed schools relatively early in the epidemic, data there suggests that schools would be a minor source of infection for children:
An analysis of the probable origin for transmission of COVID-19 infection in outbreaks that have involved children in Ireland indicated that the most common setting was the home, followed by workplaces, travel and residential institutions, with none of the childhood cases linked to outbreaks in schools.
Evidence from EU/EEA countries that kept pre- and primary schools/day care open or reopened schools early on
The ECDC report includes the following information:
Iceland kept both childcare institutions and primary schools open throughout the spring term and the rates of SARS-CoV-2 in children under 15 years old remained low compared to rates in the older age groups. Physical distancing rules did not apply to childcare institutions and primary school children.
Similarly, the Netherlands did not see a sudden increase in their reproductive number or detect significant outbreaks, when primary schools and childcare facilities opened on 11 May, with moderately high notification rates at national level. Children up to and including 12 years did not have to keep 1.5 metres apart from each other or from adults, and this measure was applied in childcare and primary education settings. Children aged 13 to 18 years did not have to physically distance from one another.
Denmark reopened childcare and primary education on 15 April, with moderately high overall notification rates at national level, and did not report any increase in the reproductive number, or detect important school outbreaks. Denmark recommended splitting classes into smaller groups, keeping two metres between children, hand hygiene, and teaching more classes outside.
Comparison between Sweden and Finland
As in other areas, some of the most useful evidence involves Sweden, which never closed schools for children under 16. In July its Public Health Authority published a report (English version here) comparing COVID-19 in children between Sweden and Finland, where almost all physical school attendance was stopped from mid-March to mid-May. Key findings in the study are:
Closing schools had no measurable effect
There is no difference in the overall incidence of the laboratory confirmed covid-19 cases in the age group 1-19 years in the two countries and the number of laboratory confirmed cases does not fluctuate with school closure or change in testing policy in Finland.[ii] Closure or not of schools had no measurable direct impact on the number of laboratory confirmed cases in school-aged children in Finland or Sweden.
Transmission by children seems low
Outbreak investigations in Finland have not shown children to be contributing much in terms of transmission:
In the contact tracings in primary schools in Finland, there has been hardly any evidence of children infecting other persons. The Swedish comparison of number of reported cases among staff in day care and primary school to number of cases in other professions does not show any increased risk for teachers.[iii] This also indicates that the role of children in propagating this infection is likely to be small. Various papers on contact tracing have also found that children rarely are the first case in family clusters.
Impacts of school closures on the health and well-being of children
The ECDC report also highlights some negative impacts of school closures on the health and well-being of children, on top of the harm to their education, saying:
A number of organisations have identified various negative impacts on children’s wellbeing, learning opportunities and safety caused by school closures. These range from the interruption of learning and the exacerbation of disparities and mental health issues to an increased risk of domestic violence. The negative impacts particularly affect children from vulnerable and marginalised population groups. Other health aspects, both physical and mental, also need consideration. For many students living in poverty, schools are not only a place for learning, but also for healthy eating, and therefore researchers warn that school closures will exacerbate food insecurity. Research has highlighted that the active social life that children aged 2–10 years have at school helps them to learn from peers and has a positive impact on their personality and sense of identity, while disruptions of close peer relationships have been associated with depression, guilt, and anger in children. Furthermore, school and extracurricular activities provide structure, meaning and a daily rhythm for children and youth. For those suffering from anxiety and depression, the loss of such activities can worsen symptoms and reinforce social withdrawal and feelings of hopelessness.
Conclusions
The evidence shows that concerns about recommencing physical school attendance are misplaced, at least if moderate social distancing measures (not requiring mask wearing, and only for child-adult contact) are mandated.
It also seems pretty clear that the original decisions by almost all European countries to close schools were, in retrospect, ill-judged measures that caused more harm than good, at least in relation to children under 16 years old.
Nicholas Lewis 10 September 2020
[i] Based on a survey of EU/EEA and UK countries, 15 of which responded.
[ii] In Sweden, the number of laboratory confirmed cases is affected by change in testing policy.
[iii] The relative risk of teachers catching COVID-19, compared to that in other professions, was 0.9 for day care, 1.1 for primary school (in neither case being statistically significant), and 0.7 for secondary school (just significantly lower than 1).
Originally posted here, where a pdf copy is also available
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climateetc--2020-09-08--Part of the heat is coming from beneath our feet.

A thought-provoking article from my new favorite blog , The Ethical Skeptic .
My new favorite blog is The Ethical Skeptic .
From the About page : “ It is the intent of this author and purpose of this blog to propose afresh from its beginning , a genuine problem in philosophy .
A problem of method-induced creeping ignorance , wrought in the name of science .
Until one understands how a philosophical definition or principle can be manipulated for ill intent , one has not really learned it .
Such is the nature of ethical skepticism ; an applied @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is employed with the specific goal of cultivating ignorance inside society .
In order for us to hone our skills at spotting scientific deception through means of this false skepticism however , it becomes necessary that one approach afresh , many core ideas of philosophy.
” There is TONS of excellent , provocative material on this site , and the lengthy articles are very well written ; I encourage you to explore .
I was particularly struck by this article on the Omega Hypothesis and its relevance to climate change .
Part of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our feet The article that motivates this post is one entitled The Climate Change Alternative We Ignore ( to Our Peril ) .
Subtitle : “ When the Earth ’ s core enters an exothermic cycle , the Earth ’ s air-conditioning heat pump gets less efficient.
” The preamble : “ Now before reviewing this article I must ask two things of its prospective reader .
First , if one finds them self tempted to shift their more-sciencey-than-thou underoos all askew and further then perceives sufficient knee-jerk dissonance coming on to assign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understand that I am a proponent of addressing anthropogenic global warming as a first priority for mankind .
Second , what I am summarizing in very short form herein stems from hundreds of hours of research and literally multiple hundreds of references which I can not possibly compile into this blog article by coherent sequence – without sacrificing the ability to deliver its core message .
This idea is a construct , an idea which aspires to be developed into real hypothesis .
Despite its need for further development and maturation , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polarization over this issue politically .
We need fewer children with scowling faces , and more unbiased thinking adults addressing this challenge .
I am not a climate scientist – however , nor am I carrying anyone ’ s water on this issue .
I do not possess an implicit threat to my career if I say something forbidden or research an embargoed idea .
In the midst of my work inside climate change solution development , a number of peripheral observations I have made have begun to bother me greatly .
They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to formulate and propose another idea .
An idea that in my opinion fits the observation base much more elegantly , without forcing and in more compelling fashion than simply the Omega Hypothesis of ‘ man is causing it all – no need to look any further ’ .
My point is , that this is an idea which requires a multi-disciplinary understanding of the physical phenomena involved.
” The paper includes nine observations that are ‘ inconvenient ’ to the 100 % AGW hypothesis : Observation 1 ( Inductive-Introduces Plurality ) – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Northern Hemisphere Winter Solstice Pause Which Should Not Exist if All PPM is Generated by Man Alone – Coronavirus Industrial Shutdown only Served to Produce Record CO PPM Increases Observation 2 ( Inductive-Introduces Plurality ) – Atmospheric CO Levels Follow Temperature Rises and Are Accelerating – Man ’ s Carbon Producing Activity is Linear and of Insufficient Slope to Drive This Observation 3 ( Deductive-Introduces Plurality ) – Ceres EBAF measures of Earth ’ s Reemergent Albedo are Higher Than They Should Be – Indicating Earth is Not CO -Capturing as Much Heat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Inductive-Introduces Critical Path ) – Mean Sea Level is Rising Yes – But MSL Variance Range is Also Increasing ( and Should Not Be ) – Global Ocean Current Speed has Increased by 15 % Over that Same Timeframe Observation 5 ( Deductive-Consilient ) – The Schumann Resonance Banding-Amplitude Has Ranged High – While Geomagnetic Moment/Polarity has Weakened/Wandered – All Highly Commensurate with Historical and Recent Global Temperature Increases Observation 6 ( Deductive-Consilient ) – Earth ’ s Rotation is Slowing Faster than Historical – Indicating a Recent-Term But Constant Ferrous Mass Contribution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to l-FCC Lower Mantle Observation 7 ( Inductive-Consilient ) – Recent-Term Rise in Activity of Earth ’ s Upper Mantle in Terms of Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity Commensurate with Temperature Increases Observation 8 ( Deductive-Critical Path ) – Heat Anomalies are Not Entropic – Rather Bear Recurring Mantle-Like Cohesiveness – Heat is Arising Principally from Ocean Conveyance Belts at Mid-Atlantic Rise and El Niño Thermohaline Currents Observation 9 ( Deductive-Critical Path ) – Abyssal Oceans are Absorbing More Novel Heat Content per Cubic Meter of Ocean ( ΔT-gigajoules/m3 ) than are Surface Oceans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Neglected and Highly Critical Path Climate Science “ Now with all of this observation set under our belt , let ’ s examine the alternative that I believe we must address – out of both ethics and precaution .
This alternative is not vulnerable to the easy wave-of-the-hand single-analysis/apothegm dismissals to which so many other climate change alternatives fall prey .
This does not serve to invalidate anthropogenic contribution to carbon and global temperatures by any means .
But such a reality also never necessitates that mankind adopt complete ignorance either .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ points .
This post really struck a chord with me .
I have become increasingly interested in the impact of underwater and under ice sheet volcanoes , and their impact on sea level rise , and also the ocean role in the carbon budget .
The Ethical Skeptic has pulled a number of concerns that I have had , along with some issues that I was unaware of , into a coherent hypothesis .
To my mind , this is science at its best , where “ new ideas are explored and neither @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explored.
” The quote is from an email exchange with Marcia Wyatt about this paper .
In the gatekeeping , speaking consensus to power mode of doing ‘ climate science , ’ there is a dearth of new ideas , and increasingly these are coming from outside the climate community .
Well , in my so-called ‘ retirement ’ I have almost no time for blogging .
My company Climate Forecast Applications Network has been keeping me very busy ; the last few months have been especially crazy with an active Atlantic hurricane @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I signed a contract to write a book ( no details yet ) .
The salient point is that I was going through old blog posts having relevant material , and I was reminded of how good Climate Etc .
was in the earlier years when I was exploring new ideas ( to me ) , questioning and challenging the conventional ‘ wisdoms.
’ I haven ’ t stopped doing this , but I haven ’ t been blogging about it since my investigations have been for paying clients ( and confidential ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But I do miss the informality and curiosity-driven nature of doing this on the blog .
The Ethical Skeptic has motivated me to at least try to post more regularly about new and controversial ideas about climate change , not to mention the ‘ etc .
’

by Judith Curry
A thought-provoking article from my new favorite blog, The Ethical Skeptic.
The Ethical Skeptic
My new favorite blog is The Ethical Skeptic. From the About page:
“It is the intent of this author and purpose of this blog to propose afresh from its beginning, a genuine problem in philosophy. A problem of method-induced creeping ignorance, wrought in the name of science. Until one understands how a philosophical definition or principle can be manipulated for ill intent, one has not really learned it. Such is the nature of ethical skepticism; an applied ability to spot the condition wherein skepticism is employed with the specific goal of cultivating ignorance inside society. In order for us to hone our skills at spotting scientific deception through means of this false skepticism however, it becomes necessary that one approach afresh, many core ideas of philosophy.”
There is TONS of excellent, provocative material on this site, and the lengthy articles are very well written; I encourage you to explore. I was particularly struck by this article on the Omega Hypothesis and its relevance to climate change.
Part of the heat may be coming from beneath our feet
The article that motivates this post is one entitled The Climate Change Alternative We Ignore (to Our Peril). Subtitle: “When the Earth’s core enters an exothermic cycle, the Earth’s air-conditioning heat pump gets less efficient.” The preamble:
“Now before reviewing this article I must ask two things of its prospective reader. First, if one finds them self tempted to shift their more-sciencey-than-thou underoos all askew and further then perceives sufficient knee-jerk dissonance coming on to assign me an ‘anti-‘ label – understand that I am a proponent of addressing anthropogenic global warming as a first priority for mankind.
Second, what I am summarizing in very short form herein stems from hundreds of hours of research and literally multiple hundreds of references which I cannot possibly compile into this blog article by coherent sequence – without sacrificing the ability to deliver its core message. This idea is a construct, an idea which aspires to be developed into real hypothesis.
Despite its need for further development and maturation, this argument should not be ignored through our polarization over this issue politically. We need fewer children with scowling faces, and more unbiased thinking adults addressing this challenge.
I am not a climate scientist – however, nor am I carrying anyone’s water on this issue. I do not possess an implicit threat to my career if I say something forbidden or research an embargoed idea. In the midst of my work inside climate change solution development, a number of peripheral observations I have made have begun to bother me greatly. They have caused me to perceive the necessity to formulate and propose another idea. An idea that in my opinion fits the observation base much more elegantly, without forcing and in more compelling fashion than simply the Omega Hypothesis of ‘man is causing it all – no need to look any further’. My point is, that this is an idea which requires a multi-disciplinary understanding of the physical phenomena involved.”
The paper includes nine observations that are ‘inconvenient’ to the 100% AGW hypothesis:
Observation 1 (Inductive-Introduces Plurality) – Fall to Winter CO 2 Rise Exhibits a Northern Hemisphere Winter Solstice Pause Which Should Not Exist if All PPM is Generated by Man Alone – Coronavirus Industrial Shutdown only Served to Produce Record CO 2 PPM Increases
Observation 2 (Inductive-Introduces Plurality) – Atmospheric CO 2 Levels Follow Temperature Rises and Are Accelerating – Man’s Carbon Producing Activity is Linear and of Insufficient Slope to Drive This
Observation 3 (Deductive-Introduces Plurality) – Ceres EBAF measures of Earth’s Reemergent Albedo are Higher Than They Should Be – Indicating Earth is Not CO 2 -Capturing as Much Heat as Climate Models Require
Observation 4 (Inductive-Introduces Critical Path) – Mean Sea Level is Rising Yes – But MSL Variance Range is Also Increasing (and Should Not Be) – Global Ocean Current Speed has Increased by 15% Over that Same Timeframe
Observation 5 (Deductive-Consilient) – The Schumann Resonance Banding-Amplitude Has Ranged High – While Geomagnetic Moment/Polarity has Weakened/Wandered – All Highly Commensurate with Historical and Recent Global Temperature Increases
Observation 6 (Deductive-Consilient) – Earth’s Rotation is Slowing Faster than Historical – Indicating a Recent-Term But Constant Ferrous Mass Contribution in Phase Change from l-HCP Outer Core to l-FCC Lower Mantle
Observation 7 (Inductive-Consilient) – Recent-Term Rise in Activity of Earth’s Upper Mantle in Terms of Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity Commensurate with Temperature Increases
Observation 8 (Deductive-Critical Path) – Heat Anomalies are Not Entropic – Rather Bear Recurring Mantle-Like Cohesiveness – Heat is Arising Principally from Ocean Conveyance Belts at Mid-Atlantic Rise and El Niño Thermohaline Currents
Observation 9 (Deductive-Critical Path) – Abyssal Oceans are Absorbing More Novel Heat Content per Cubic Meter of Ocean (ΔT-gigajoules/m3) than are Surface Oceans by an Enormous Margin – This is Neglected and Highly Critical Path Climate Science
From the conclusions:
“Now with all of this observation set under our belt, let’s examine the alternative that I believe we must address – out of both ethics and precaution. This alternative is not vulnerable to the easy wave-of-the-hand single-analysis/apothegm dismissals to which so many other climate change alternatives fall prey. This does not serve to invalidate anthropogenic contribution to carbon and global temperatures by any means. But such a reality also never necessitates that mankind adopt complete ignorance either. This construct alternative can be summarized in four points.
1. The Earth’s core is undergoing extreme exothermic change – shedding high-latent-energy hexagonal closepack (HCP) iron into the mantle where it converts to face centered cubic (FCC) iron.
2. The exothermic heat content from this eventually reaches the asthenosphere.
3. Ancient abyssal ocean conveyance belts pull novel heat content from small footprint yet now much hotter contribution points exposed to the asthenosphere – and convey this novel heat content to the surface of the ocean.
4. Ocean heats atmosphere (or fails to cool it as well as it once did) much more readily than atmosphere heats ocean.”
JC reflections
This post really struck a chord with me. I have become increasingly interested in the impact of underwater and under ice sheet volcanoes, and their impact on sea level rise, and also the ocean role in the carbon budget. The Ethical Skeptic has pulled a number of concerns that I have had, along with some issues that I was unaware of, into a coherent hypothesis.
To my mind, this is science at its best, where “new ideas are explored and neither readily embraced nor rejected, but just explored.” The quote is from an email exchange with Marcia Wyatt about this paper. In the gatekeeping, speaking consensus to power mode of doing ‘climate science,’ there is a dearth of new ideas, and increasingly these are coming from outside the climate community.
I look forward to reactions.
Postscript
Well, in my so-called ‘retirement’ I have almost no time for blogging. My company Climate Forecast Applications Network has been keeping me very busy; the last few months have been especially crazy with an active Atlantic hurricane season.
Before hurricane season started, I signed a contract to write a book (no details yet). The salient point is that I was going through old blog posts having relevant material, and I was reminded of how good Climate Etc. was in the earlier years when I was exploring new ideas (to me), questioning and challenging the conventional ‘wisdoms.’
I haven’t stopped doing this, but I haven’t been blogging about it since my investigations have been for paying clients (and confidential). And increasingly for my book. But I do miss the informality and curiosity-driven nature of doing this on the blog.
The Ethical Skeptic has motivated me to at least try to post more regularly about new and controversial ideas about climate change, not to mention the ‘etc.’
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