conservativehome--2020-03-16--David Clifford: Merging district councils would make government more remote from the people

Cllr David Clifford is the Leader of Rushmoor Council .
I have reached the pinnacle of my political career .
A request to write for “ Conservative Home ” .
Elation was quickly followed by total horror .
All those discerning , intellectual , and brutally blunt , readers scrutinising ( or not ) my words .
Why would those bathing in the radiance of an historical electoral victory want to hear from some unknown local Leader of a small borough hidden in the shires ?
A little borough that despite the 2019 local election catastrophe engulfing all our neighbours @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a strong member-led administration , and growing association membership .
We won when it was not fashionable and there are three simple reasons why .
On becoming leader , I tormented myself with the question “ How do I improve an outstanding local authority ?
” .
Five o ’ clock one morning the answer to my prayer came .
The Kolb learning cycle adapted for local government .
Listen – Learn – Deliver better .
Simple to remember , understand , and implement , – and a covenant with residents who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ real listening , genuine learning , and a commitment to improve .
Listening and strong leadership are not opposite ends of a spectrum .
From one to one group interviews to large resident meetings and local organisations , listening plays a big part in what we do .
Listening has meant an urgent escalation on our Green Action Plan and over 1500 trees planted by us in our borough this year .
Our commitment to listening also means we are campaigning every week somewhere in the borough , supporting colleagues and activists .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ time .
However , listening without learning can simply lead to being a political weathervane .
Learning means change .
One message we continually share with residents is that in listening and learning we will sometimes get things wrong .
It is part of learning .
When we do , we are open and honest and take immediate action to correct our course .
As a learning authority we are continually improving , open to new ideas , and investing in member and staff development .
This has also paid huge dividends with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new members with relevant skills and talents that are injecting a new enthusiasm and drive in the Association .
Delivering better is inevitable if built on a strong foundation of real listening and genuine learning .
And here I want to make the case for district-level government .
It is very intimate .
At district-level we know our residents extremely well .
We are the “ first responder ” .
People contact us for the whole range of government services , which we channel to County colleagues or other national agencies .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resources and expertise to deliver and not too large and remote to know precisely where resources and expertise are needed .
We deliver well – and build strong communities .
We know our citizens and they know us and trust us .
With our historic victory , huge majority , and “ Brexit getting done ” , this government is doing a phenomenal job putting Great Britain back on the world stage .
Before they make dramatic changes ‘ backstage ’ to local democracy , I hope they follow the formula that has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corner of England .
We hear much of ‘ devolution ’ which appears more about merging and combining , than it is about devolution of power .
Linked to this is the centralist imposition of directly elected Mayors linked to increased power and resources .
I see a great opportunity for our party at the district level of government .
People feel very passionate about their towns .
They do not get so excited about their County .
Many activists are joining us because they see the direct impact our district is having @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that if we keep merging districts , they will be more remote , and the direct consequence will be a loss of political interest in local government that is further from the residents it serves .
The national renaissance must be linked to a new dawn of engagement for our party .
That will not be achieved by simply merging local authorities .
We need to recognise the very direct and efficient level of delivery achieved at district level .
I have no problems with directly elected Mayors , much like I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Prime Minister .
In most of the country outside metropolitan areas we have district council leaders selected by fellow councillors with the Council chaired by a figurehead Chairman or Mayor ( in a Borough ) .
This replicates the national arrangement where the Prime Minister is essentially selected by fellow parliamentarians with a constitutional monarch who is a figure head for the country .
If we are committed to direct accountability , then what is suggested for the districts should be implemented nationally with a directly elected PM .
The arguments for greater @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It is such a privilege to be a member of this great party and to be the Council Leader of Rushmoor , home of Business Aviation , and home to the British Army , which are both safe in our hands nationally and locally .

Cllr David Clifford is the Leader of Rushmoor Council.
I have reached the pinnacle of my political career. A request to write for “Conservative Home”. Elation was quickly followed by total horror. All those discerning, intellectual, and brutally blunt, readers scrutinising (or not) my words. Why would those bathing in the radiance of an historical electoral victory want to hear from some unknown local Leader of a small borough hidden in the shires? A little borough that despite the 2019 local election catastrophe engulfing all our neighbours, still has a stomping Conservative majority, a strong member-led administration, and growing association membership. We won when it was not fashionable and there are three simple reasons why.
On becoming leader, I tormented myself with the question “How do I improve an outstanding local authority?”. Five o’clock one morning the answer to my prayer came. The Kolb learning cycle adapted for local government. Listen – Learn – Deliver better. Simple to remember, understand, and implement, – and a covenant with residents who know that all we do will involve real listening, genuine learning, and a commitment to improve.
Listening and strong leadership are not opposite ends of a spectrum. From one to one group interviews to large resident meetings and local organisations, listening plays a big part in what we do. Listening has meant an urgent escalation on our Green Action Plan and over 1500 trees planted by us in our borough this year. Our commitment to listening also means we are campaigning every week somewhere in the borough, supporting colleagues and activists. We do not appear just at election time. However, listening without learning can simply lead to being a political weathervane.
Learning means change. One message we continually share with residents is that in listening and learning we will sometimes get things wrong. It is part of learning. When we do, we are open and honest and take immediate action to correct our course. As a learning authority we are continually improving, open to new ideas, and investing in member and staff development. This has also paid huge dividends with our local party where we are attracting new members with relevant skills and talents that are injecting a new enthusiasm and drive in the Association.
Delivering better is inevitable if built on a strong foundation of real listening and genuine learning. And here I want to make the case for district-level government. It is very intimate. At district-level we know our residents extremely well. We are the “first responder”. People contact us for the whole range of government services, which we channel to County colleagues or other national agencies. We are not too small to lack the resources and expertise to deliver and not too large and remote to know precisely where resources and expertise are needed. We deliver well – and build strong communities. We know our citizens and they know us and trust us.
With our historic victory, huge majority, and “Brexit getting done”, this government is doing a phenomenal job putting Great Britain back on the world stage. Before they make dramatic changes ‘backstage’ to local democracy, I hope they follow the formula that has made us so successful in this little corner of England.
We hear much of ‘devolution’ which appears more about merging and combining, than it is about devolution of power. Linked to this is the centralist imposition of directly elected Mayors linked to increased power and resources. I see a great opportunity for our party at the district level of government. People feel very passionate about their towns. They do not get so excited about their County. Many activists are joining us because they see the direct impact our district is having on our local community. My fear is that if we keep merging districts, they will be more remote, and the direct consequence will be a loss of political interest in local government that is further from the residents it serves. The national renaissance must be linked to a new dawn of engagement for our party. That will not be achieved by simply merging local authorities. We need to recognise the very direct and efficient level of delivery achieved at district level.
I have no problems with directly elected Mayors, much like I have no issue with a directly elected Prime Minister. In most of the country outside metropolitan areas we have district council leaders selected by fellow councillors with the Council chaired by a figurehead Chairman or Mayor (in a Borough). This replicates the national arrangement where the Prime Minister is essentially selected by fellow parliamentarians with a constitutional monarch who is a figure head for the country. If we are committed to direct accountability, then what is suggested for the districts should be implemented nationally with a directly elected PM. The arguments for greater local accountability would be suddenly more credible.
It is such a privilege to be a member of this great party and to be the Council Leader of Rushmoor, home of Business Aviation, and home to the British Army, which are both safe in our hands nationally and locally.


conservativehome--2020-03-16--Calling Conservatives: New public appointments announced. Chair of NHS Resolution – and more

Eight years ago , the TaxPayers ’ Alliance reported that “ in the last year , five times more Labour people were appointed to public bodies than Tories ” .
It currently reports that almost half of avowedly political appointees last year owed their allegiance to Labour Party , compared to less than a third for the Conservatives .
Despite the selection of some Party members or supporters to fill important posts , over time , the Conservatives have punched beneath their weight when it comes to public appointments .
One of the reasons seems to be that Tories simply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number as Labour supporters .
To help remedy this , each week we put up links to some of the main public appointments vacancies , so that qualified Conservatives can be aware of the opportunities presented .
“ Robert Chote will be stepping down as Chair of the BRC later this year , after 10 years in post .
We are seeking a successor with deep expertise in economic and fiscal analysis who can lead the BRC and provide intellectual leadership to the OBR ’ s staff .
This is a high profile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skills and integrity .
Candidates must command broad respect for their objectivity in dealing with issues of political sensitivity .
Appointments to the BRC are for a five-year term .
There is the possibility of reappointment at the end of the term and members can serve a maximum of two terms .
This post can be undertaken on either a part or full-time basis.
” “ The Office for Nuclear Regulation ( ONR ) is a Public Corporation responsible for the regulation of nuclear safety and security across the UK .
Its vision @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inspires respect , trust and confidence .
ONR is sponsored by the Department for Work and Pensions ( DWP ) who have principal responsibility for governance , finance and its performance in relation to conventional Health and Safety .
The Department for Business , Energy and Industrial Strategy ( BEIS ) is accountable for the UK civil nuclear regulatory framework and policies and for appointing a Security Non-Executive Director ( NED ) to the ONR Board.
” “ As we enter the Fourth Industrial Revolution , a wave of technological innovation is creating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transforming the way things are made and the way we live .
From AI-powered legal services to autonomous ships , new products , services and business models are emerging which don ’ t fit with existing regulatory systems .
In its White Paper on Regulation for the Fourth Industrial Revolution , the Government committed to establishing a Regulatory Horizons Council ( RHC ) to identify the implications of technological innovation with high potential benefit for the UK economy and society and advise the government on regulatory reform needed to support its rapid and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opportunity to take on an intellectually demanding role at the heart of international financial services , leading a sizeable and complex organisation .
There is a requirement for strong leadership in a challenging environment to undertake a critically important role .
Under Andrew Bailey , the FCA has formulated a transformation programme , to equip the organisation for the next phase of its development : a data strategy and enhanced analytical skills to rapidly identify harm across an exceptionally broad range of firms of all sizes exploiting fast-moving changes in technology and distribution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and processes to act swiftly on the harms identified ; [ and ] and with a regulatory framework which is appropriate following the completion of EU withdrawal , and which takes advantage of the opportunities for better and more efficient regulation brought by technology and behavioural science.
” “ The Chief Executive will assume office at a time of unprecedented external change .
The political landscape in Europe and around the globe is altering with increasing pace and less predictability .
The British Council is also in constant transformation to deliver within funding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and customer-facing world .
The aims and goals of the British Council are more necessary than ever .
Delivering them in the complex world of 2020 is more difficult than at any time since 1945 .
The resulting demands on the Chief Executive in terms of vision , agility , ability to simplify and lead with clarity and purpose are substantial .
The Chief Executive will be instrumental in redefining both ‘ soft power ’ and ‘ cultural relations ’ at this pivotal moment and will help define the place of the United @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a ‘ disrupted ’ and uncertain geopolitical world.
” Remuneration : Up to £150k per annum plus bonus to 8 per cent and Civil Service Pension “ The Coast to Capital Strategic Board comprises private sector and local authority Members , setting a vision for and overseeing delivery of economic prosperity for all in the Coast to Capital area , including through Government funding of projects through the Local Growth Fund .
They are accountable to the LEP Board and for the proper governance of the LEP .
Coast to Capital is seeking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the C2C area to help lead the region and meet the ambitious vision set out in its strategic plan .
Currently chaired by Tim Wates , who will be stepping down in July 2020 , the Board brings together a diverse mix of regional business leaders alongside senior politicians and leaders from Universities and Further Education.
” “ The last few years have seen major changes to NHS Resolution ’ s role and standing in the system as a result of both its revised strategy and the new clinical negligence scheme for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and privilege to Chair the organisation through this period of significant change .
Although the course is set for the next few years some of these changes are still at an early stage and need to be embedded , there is now a need to progress the development of our infrastructure to support the enhanced role and the NHS will continue to evolve .
I am sure therefore that the next Chair will also find the role both challenging and rewarding.
” “ The Office of the Complaints Commissioner is headed by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) who is a statutory appointment required under the Financial Services Act 2012 .
This is a senior position and , whilst the appointment is made by the regulators , it is an independent role , subject to approval by HM Treasury .
The current Commissioner carries out his duties through a company limited by guarantee ( Office of the Complaints Commissioner ) from premises based in the City of London .
He is assisted by three staff .
The Commissioner ’ s role is to review independently complaints about the actions or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financial services regulators , the Financial Conduct Authority , the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Bank of England ( but only in respect of its oversight of the banking clearing houses and payment schemes ) .
” Remuneration : “ Remuneration is on a level with judicial salaries , pro-rated as appropriate .
”

Eight years ago, the TaxPayers’ Alliance reported that “in the last year, five times more Labour people were appointed to public bodies than Tories”.
It currently reports that almost half of avowedly political appointees last year owed their allegiance to Labour Party, compared to less than a third for the Conservatives.
Despite the selection of some Party members or supporters to fill important posts, over time, the Conservatives have punched beneath their weight when it comes to public appointments. One of the reasons seems to be that Tories simply don’t apply in the same number as Labour supporters.
To help remedy this, each week we put up links to some of the main public appointments vacancies, so that qualified Conservatives can be aware of the opportunities presented.
– – – – – – – – – –
Office for Budget Responsibility – Chair
“Robert Chote will be stepping down as Chair of the BRC later this year, after 10 years in post. We are seeking a successor with deep expertise in economic and fiscal analysis who can lead the BRC and provide intellectual leadership to the OBR’s staff. This is a high profile and influential role, requiring outstanding communication skills and integrity. Candidates must command broad respect for their objectivity in dealing with issues of political sensitivity. Appointments to the BRC are for a five-year term. There is the possibility of reappointment at the end of the term and members can serve a maximum of two terms. This post can be undertaken on either a part or full-time basis.”
Time: Full- or part-time.
Remuneration: £158,762 per annum (FTE).
Closes: 19 March
– – – – – – – – – –
Office for Nuclear Regulation – Security Non-Executive Director
“The Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR) is a Public Corporation responsible for the regulation of nuclear safety and security across the UK. Its vision is to be an exemplary regulator that inspires respect, trust and confidence. ONR is sponsored by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) who have principal responsibility for governance, finance and its performance in relation to conventional Health and Safety. The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) is accountable for the UK civil nuclear regulatory framework and policies and for appointing a Security Non-Executive Director (NED) to the ONR Board.”
Time: Approx. 30 days per annum.
Remuneration: £15,000 plus expenses.
Closes: 22 March
– – – – – – – – – –
Regulatory Horizons Panel – Member
“As we enter the Fourth Industrial Revolution, a wave of technological innovation is creating new industries, disrupting existing ones and transforming the way things are made and the way we live. From AI-powered legal services to autonomous ships, new products, services and business models are emerging which don’t fit with existing regulatory systems. In its White Paper on Regulation for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the Government committed to establishing a Regulatory Horizons Council (RHC) to identify the implications of technological innovation with high potential benefit for the UK economy and society and advise the government on regulatory reform needed to support its rapid and safe introduction.”
Time: 1-2 days per month.
Remuneration: £380 per diem.
Closes: 23 March
– – – – – – – – – –
Financial Conduct Authority – Chief Executive
“This is an opportunity to take on an intellectually demanding role at the heart of international financial services, leading a sizeable and complex organisation. There is a requirement for strong leadership in a challenging environment to undertake a critically important role. Under Andrew Bailey, the FCA has formulated a transformation programme, to equip the organisation for the next phase of its development: a data strategy and enhanced analytical skills to rapidly identify harm across an exceptionally broad range of firms of all sizes exploiting fast-moving changes in technology and distribution to target consumers; enhance employee capabilities and processes to act swiftly on the harms identified; [and] and with a regulatory framework which is appropriate following the completion of EU withdrawal, and which takes advantage of the opportunities for better and more efficient regulation brought by technology and behavioural science.”
Time: Full-time.
Remuneration: Competitive.
Closes: 27 March
– – – – – – – – – –
British Council – Chief Executive
“The Chief Executive will assume office at a time of unprecedented external change. The political landscape in Europe and around the globe is altering with increasing pace and less predictability. The British Council is also in constant transformation to deliver within funding constraints in a demanding, more client and customer-facing world. The aims and goals of the British Council are more necessary than ever. Delivering them in the complex world of 2020 is more difficult than at any time since 1945. The resulting demands on the Chief Executive in terms of vision, agility, ability to simplify and lead with clarity and purpose are substantial. The Chief Executive will be instrumental in redefining both ‘soft power’ and ‘cultural relations’ at this pivotal moment and will help define the place of the United Kingdom, for the better, in a ‘disrupted’ and uncertain geopolitical world.”
Time: Full-time.
Remuneration: Up to £150k per annum plus bonus to 8 per cent and Civil Service Pension
Closes: 27 March
– – – – – – – – – –
Coast to Capital Local Enterprise Partnership (C2C LEP) – Chair
“The Coast to Capital Strategic Board comprises private sector and local authority Members, setting a vision for and overseeing delivery of economic prosperity for all in the Coast to Capital area, including through Government funding of projects through the Local Growth Fund. They are accountable to the LEP Board and for the proper governance of the LEP. Coast to Capital is seeking an influential and persuasive senior business figure from the C2C area to help lead the region and meet the ambitious vision set out in its strategic plan. Currently chaired by Tim Wates, who will be stepping down in July 2020, the Board brings together a diverse mix of regional business leaders alongside senior politicians and leaders from Universities and Further Education.”
Time: Four days per month, three-year term.
Remuneration: £20,000 per annum.
Closes: 30 March
– – – – – – – – – –
NHS Resolution – Chair
“The last few years have seen major changes to NHS Resolution’s role and standing in the system as a result of both its revised strategy and the new clinical negligence scheme for GPs. It has been a pleasure and privilege to Chair the organisation through this period of significant change. Although the course is set for the next few years some of these changes are still at an early stage and need to be embedded, there is now a need to progress the development of our infrastructure to support the enhanced role and the NHS will continue to evolve. I am sure therefore that the next Chair will also find the role both challenging and rewarding.”
Time: 2-3 days per week.
Remuneration: £63,000 per annum.
Closes: 06 April
– – – – – – – – – –
HM Treasury – Financial Regulators Complaints Commissioner
“The Office of the Complaints Commissioner is headed by the Financial Regulators Complaints Commissioner (the Commissioner) who is a statutory appointment required under the Financial Services Act 2012. This is a senior position and, whilst the appointment is made by the regulators, it is an independent role, subject to approval by HM Treasury. The current Commissioner carries out his duties through a company limited by guarantee (Office of the Complaints Commissioner) from premises based in the City of London. He is assisted by three staff. The Commissioner’s role is to review independently complaints about the actions or inactions of the UK’s current financial services regulators, the Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Bank of England (but only in respect of its oversight of the banking clearing houses and payment schemes).”
Time: Est. three days per week.
Remuneration: “Remuneration is on a level with judicial salaries, pro-rated as appropriate.”
Closes: 13 April


conservativehome--2020-03-16--WATCH: “We will fight coronavirus with everything we’ve got”, says Hancock.

What if you can ’ t work from home ?
“ If you are healthy and you 're not being @ @ @ @ @ should still go to work .
It ’ s important this country keeps moving as @ @ @ @ @ , ” says Health Secretary Matt Hancockhttps : //t.co/PdsJ2dnUcc # CoronavirusOutbreak pic.twitter.com/2ArFnuUaDt

What if you can’t work from home?
“If you are healthy and you're not being asked to isolate… then you should still go to work. It’s important this country keeps moving as much as we possibly can,” says Health Secretary Matt Hancockhttps://t.co/PdsJ2dnUcc #CoronavirusOutbreak pic.twitter.com/2ArFnuUaDt
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) March 16, 2020


conservativehome--2020-03-16--“Without drastic action, cases could double every five or six days.”  – The Prime Minister’s coronav

“Without drastic action, cases could double every five or six days.”  – The Prime Minister’s coronavirus statement – full text

Good afternoon everybody , thank you very much for coming .
I wanted to bring everyone up to date with the national fight back against the new coronavirus and the decisions that we ’ ve just taken in COBR for the whole of the UK .
As we said last week , our objective is to delay and flatten the peak of the epidemic by bringing forward the right measures at the right time , so that we minimise suffering and save lives .
And everything we do is based scrupulously on the best scientific advice .
Last week we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you had one of two key symptoms : a high temperature or a new and continuous cough .
Today , we need to go further , because according to SAGE [ the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies ] it looks as though we ’ re now approaching the fast growth part of the upward curve .
And without drastic action , cases could double every 5 or 6 days .
So , first , we need to ask you to ensure that if you or anyone in your household has one of those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at home for fourteen days .
That means that if possible you should not go out even to buy food or essentials , other than for exercise , and in that case at a safe distance from others .
If necessary , you should ask for help from others for your daily necessities .
And if that is not possible , then you should do what you can to limit your social contact when you leave the house to get supplies .
And even if you don ’ t have symptoms and if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there is more that we need you to do now .
So , second , now is the time for everyone to stop non-essential contact with others and to stop all unnecessary travel .
We need people to start working from home where they possibly can .
And you should avoid pubs , clubs , theatres and other such social venues .
It goes without saying , we should all only use the NHS when we really need to .
And please go online rather than ringing NHS 111 .
Now , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact , is particularly important for people over 70 , for pregnant women and for those with some health conditions .
And if you ask , why are we doing this now , why now , why not earlier , or later ?
Why bring in this very draconian measure ?
The answer is that we are asking people to do something that is difficult and disruptive of their lives .
And the right moment , as we ’ ve always said , is to do it when it is most effective , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ biggest difference to slowing the spread of the disease , reducing the number of victims , reducing the number of fatalities .
And as we take these steps we should be focusing on the most vulnerable .
So third , in a few days ’ time – by this coming weekend – it will be necessary to go further and to ensure that those with the most serious health conditions are largely shielded from social contact for around 12 weeks .
And again the reason for doing this in the next few days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that this is going to be very disruptive for people who have such conditions , and difficult for them , but , I believe , it ’ s now necessary .
And we want to ensure that this period of shielding , this period of maximum protection coincides with the peak of the disease .
And it ’ s now clear that the peak of the epidemic is coming faster in some parts of the country than in others .
And it looks as though London is now a few weeks ahead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the London health system and to slow the spread in London , it ’ s important that Londoners now pay special attention to what we are saying about avoiding non-essential contact , and to take particularly seriously the advice about working from home , and avoiding confined spaces such as pubs and restaurants .
Lastly , it remains true as we have said in the last few weeks that risks of transmission of the disease at mass gatherings such as sporting events are relatively low .
But obviously , logically as we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kinds , it is right that we should extend this advice to mass gatherings as well .
And so we ’ ve also got to ensure that we have the critical workers we need , that might otherwise be deployed at those gatherings , to deal with this emergency .
So from tomorrow , we will no longer be supporting mass gatherings with emergency workers in the way that we normally do .
So mass gatherings , we are now moving emphatically away from .
And I know that many people – including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 70 – may feel , listening to what I have just said , that there is something excessive about these measures .
But I have to say , I believe that they are overwhelmingly worth it to slow the spread of the disease , to reduce the peak , to save life , minimise suffering and to give our NHS the chance to cope .
Over the last few days , I have been comparing notes and talking to leaders around the world and I can tell you that the UK is now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ our friends and allies , whether in the G7 , the G20 , the UN , the IMF – all those bodies in which we play a significant role .
We ’ re leading a campaign to fight back against this disease .
To keep the economy growing , to make sure that humanity has access to the drugs and the treatments that we all need , and the UK is also at the front of the effort to back business , to back our economy , to make sure that we get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are asking a lot of everybody .
It is far more now than just washing your hands – though clearly washing your hands remains important .
But I can tell you that across this country , people and businesses in my experience are responding with amazing energy and creativity to the challenge that we face , and I want to thank everybody for the part that you are playing and are going to play .

Good afternoon everybody, thank you very much for coming. I wanted to bring everyone up to date with the national fight back against the new coronavirus and the decisions that we’ve just taken in COBR for the whole of the UK.
As we said last week, our objective is to delay and flatten the peak of the epidemic by bringing forward the right measures at the right time, so that we minimise suffering and save lives. And everything we do is based scrupulously on the best scientific advice.
Last week we asked everyone to stay at home if you had one of two key symptoms: a high temperature or a new and continuous cough.
Today, we need to go further, because according to SAGE [the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies] it looks as though we’re now approaching the fast growth part of the upward curve.
And without drastic action, cases could double every 5 or 6 days.
So, first, we need to ask you to ensure that if you or anyone in your household has one of those two symptoms, then you should stay at home for fourteen days.
That means that if possible you should not go out even to buy food or essentials, other than for exercise, and in that case at a safe distance from others. If necessary, you should ask for help from others for your daily necessities. And if that is not possible, then you should do what you can to limit your social contact when you leave the house to get supplies.
And even if you don’t have symptoms and if no one in your household has symptoms, there is more that we need you to do now.
So, second, now is the time for everyone to stop non-essential contact with others and to stop all unnecessary travel.
We need people to start working from home where they possibly can. And you should avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues.
It goes without saying, we should all only use the NHS when we really need to. And please go online rather than ringing NHS 111.
Now, this advice about avoiding all unnecessary social contact, is particularly important for people over 70, for pregnant women and for those with some health conditions.
And if you ask, why are we doing this now, why now, why not earlier, or later? Why bring in this very draconian measure?
The answer is that we are asking people to do something that is difficult and disruptive of their lives.
And the right moment, as we’ve always said, is to do it when it is most effective, when we think it can make the biggest difference to slowing the spread of the disease, reducing the number of victims, reducing the number of fatalities.
And as we take these steps we should be focusing on the most vulnerable.
So third, in a few days’ time – by this coming weekend – it will be necessary to go further and to ensure that those with the most serious health conditions are largely shielded from social contact for around 12 weeks.
And again the reason for doing this in the next few days, rather than earlier or later, is that this is going to be very disruptive for people who have such conditions, and difficult for them, but, I believe, it’s now necessary.
And we want to ensure that this period of shielding, this period of maximum protection coincides with the peak of the disease.
And it’s now clear that the peak of the epidemic is coming faster in some parts of the country than in others.
And it looks as though London is now a few weeks ahead.
So, to relieve the pressure on the London health system and to slow the spread in London, it’s important that Londoners now pay special attention to what we are saying about avoiding non-essential contact, and to take particularly seriously the advice about working from home, and avoiding confined spaces such as pubs and restaurants.
Lastly, it remains true as we have said in the last few weeks that risks of transmission of the disease at mass gatherings such as sporting events are relatively low.
But obviously, logically as we advise against unnecessary social contact of all kinds, it is right that we should extend this advice to mass gatherings as well.
And so we’ve also got to ensure that we have the critical workers we need, that might otherwise be deployed at those gatherings, to deal with this emergency.
So from tomorrow, we will no longer be supporting mass gatherings with emergency workers in the way that we normally do. So mass gatherings, we are now moving emphatically away from.
And I know that many people – including millions of fit and active people over 70 – may feel, listening to what I have just said, that there is something excessive about these measures.
But I have to say, I believe that they are overwhelmingly worth it to slow the spread of the disease, to reduce the peak, to save life, minimise suffering and to give our NHS the chance to cope.
Over the last few days, I have been comparing notes and talking to leaders around the world and I can tell you that the UK is now leading a growing global campaign amongst all our friends and allies, whether in the G7, the G20, the UN, the IMF – all those bodies in which we play a significant role.
We’re leading a campaign to fight back against this disease.
To keep the economy growing, to make sure that humanity has access to the drugs and the treatments that we all need, and the UK is also at the front of the effort to back business, to back our economy, to make sure that we get through it.
I know that today we are asking a lot of everybody. It is far more now than just washing your hands – though clearly washing your hands remains important.
But I can tell you that across this country, people and businesses in my experience are responding with amazing energy and creativity to the challenge that we face, and I want to thank everybody for the part that you are playing and are going to play.


conservativehome--2020-03-16--Vallance and Whitty can’t be everywhere at once

The Chief Scientific Officer ( CSO ) “ is head of profession for the 50,000 healthcare scientists working in the NHS , embracing more than 50 separate scientific specialisms ” .
He “ can improve the integration of services , develop new structures for delivering care , give patients greater control of their own care and improve the NHS ’ s ability to undertake research and innovation and raising the game of health technology ” , according to NHS England .
50,000 healthcare scientists is a lot of heathcare scientists , and the NHS ’ s ability to undertake innovation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of health technology , sound more important than ever in current circumstances .
The Chief Medical Officer , meanwhile , “ is the country ’ s most senior medical adviser ” , who is also “ the head of the public health profession ” .
He must “ provide independent advice…in particular during public health emergencies ; recommend policy changes to improve public health outcomes ; and act as an interface between the government and medical researchers and clinical professionals ” .
So it sounds as though there is plenty to keep him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the context of comments earlier today about Grant Shapps ’ appearance on the Today Programme to put the case for the Government ’ s approach to the Coronavirus .
There were complaints that a politician was making it rather than Patrick Vallance , the Chief Scientific Officer , or Whitty , the Chief Medical Officer .
And that the politician in question was Shapps .
This Twitter search and its finding will give you the flavour .
On the latter point , we ’ ve nothing much to say other than that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members who Downing Street trusts to go out and make a case on a policy matter that isn ’ t his departmental specialism .
That ought to give pause for thought about whether we have the Cabinet we need for this crisis .
On the former one , we believe that people we elect can not altogether cede the media , as the Coronavirus runs on , to people we don ’ t – however distinguished .
It ’ s a statement of the obvious that Boris Johnson , Matt Hancock and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tents and slink away .
The Government needs to put up a mix of the politicians we elect and the scientists who advise them .
Which brings us back to Vallance and Whitty .
They must necessarily help to front the daily Downing Street press conferences which are now essential .
Not every day , presumably .
But often enough to take a big chunk out of their time .
Neither can reasonably be expected to take on the additional workload of fronting for Boris Johnson whenever Today or Newsnight or Sky News @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to build a pool of scientists who can make the case for its policy .
There are some around .
The worry among some Ministers is that too many cooks will spoil the messaging broth , and that some of these scientists will go off-piste or be trapped by Gotcha Journalism .
Perhaps .
But the Government is now in the business of trading off one evil against others .
So when Andy Burnham writes candidly and interestingly about how he made a mess of leading the Labour Government ’ s response to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reading .
As he is when he goes on to confess that only when Liam Donaldson , then Chief Medical Officer , took over was a sense of order restored .
But as we say Ministers can none the less not abandon the TV studios and airwaves during this much bigger crisis .
Not unless they want to provoke howls of protest about their absence from some of the very same people now emitting these about their presence .

The Chief Scientific Officer (CSO) “is head of profession for the 50,000 healthcare scientists working in the NHS, embracing more than 50 separate scientific specialisms”.
He “can improve the integration of services, develop new structures for delivering care, give patients greater control of their own care and improve the NHS’s ability to undertake research and innovation and raising the game of health technology”, according to NHS England.
50,000 healthcare scientists is a lot of heathcare scientists, and the NHS’s ability to undertake innovation, plus the raising of the game of health technology, sound more important than ever in current circumstances.
The Chief Medical Officer, meanwhile, “is the country’s most senior medical adviser”, who is also “the head of the public health profession”.
He must “provide independent advice…in particular during public health emergencies; recommend policy changes to improve public health outcomes; and act as an interface between the government and medical researchers and clinical professionals”.
So it sounds as though there is plenty to keep him busy, too.
We raise this in the context of comments earlier today about Grant Shapps’ appearance on the Today Programme to put the case for the Government’s approach to the Coronavirus.
There were complaints that a politician was making it rather than Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Officer, or Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer. And that the politician in question was Shapps. This Twitter search and its finding will give you the flavour.
On the latter point, we’ve nothing much to say other than that Shapps is one of the few Cabinet members who Downing Street trusts to go out and make a case on a policy matter that isn’t his departmental specialism.
That ought to give pause for thought about whether we have the Cabinet we need for this crisis.
On the former one, we believe that people we elect cannot altogether cede the media, as the Coronavirus runs on, to people we don’t – however distinguished. It’s a statement of the obvious that Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock and other Cabinet members can’t fold their tents and slink away.
The Government needs to put up a mix of the politicians we elect and the scientists who advise them. Which brings us back to Vallance and Whitty.
They must necessarily help to front the daily Downing Street press conferences which are now essential. Not every day, presumably. But often enough to take a big chunk out of their time.
Neither can reasonably be expected to take on the additional workload of fronting for Boris Johnson whenever Today or Newsnight or Sky News snap their fingers.
The Government needs to build a pool of scientists who can make the case for its policy. There are some around.
The worry among some Ministers is that too many cooks will spoil the messaging broth, and that some of these scientists will go off-piste or be trapped by Gotcha Journalism. Perhaps. But the Government is now in the business of trading off one evil against others.
So when Andy Burnham writes candidly and interestingly about how he made a mess of leading the Labour Government’s response to swine flu, he’s worth reading. As he is when he goes on to confess that only when Liam Donaldson, then Chief Medical Officer, took over was a sense of order restored.
But as we say Ministers can none the less not abandon the TV studios and airwaves during this much bigger crisis. Not unless they want to provoke howls of protest about their absence from some of the very same people now emitting these about their presence.


conservativehome--2020-03-17--James Frayne: The challenges of the Coronavirus to working families outside the prosperous South Eas

James Frayne: The challenges of the Coronavirus to working families outside the prosperous South East

James Frayne is Director of Public First and author of Meet the People , a guide to moving public opinion .
In fighting Coronavirus , for the Government and the rest of us , the most important things are saving lives and maintaining the strength of the NHS .
This is clearly the Government ’ s position .
But beyond this , the Government will be wrestling with a mass of competing policy pressures : how can Ministers prevent economic damage and maintain order in society and indeed morale ( which we now call mental health or wellbeing ) ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be on health , but it won ’ t be their only focus .
It can not be .
Others have written intelligently and persuasively about the health challenge ; not wanting to sound blasé about it , the reality is I don ’ t have the experience to add anything on this .
Instead , I look here at the challenges Coronavirus will pose to the everyday lives of those people I ’ ve been writing about for the last few years : the mass of working families outside the prosperous @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on to at least some of these challenges , with Rishi Sunak set to announce a range of economic and financial policies imminently .
Even this highly selective list poses extraordinary challenges to Government .
Town and city centres : If pubs , restaurants , cafes and other shops close nationwide , it ’ s difficult to see how the result won ’ t be devastating for the communities of many towns and small cities .
Already badly struggling , the closure of these businesses , even temporarily , will surely finish off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as we currently know them .
Even if banks , HMRC and local councils offer them favourable financial terms , as looks likely , they ’ ll still be hit by a catastrophic loss of custom that will make the equivalent of tax holidays irrelevant .
And with the falling away of custom , large-scale redundancies will be followed by closures .
The Government has rightly worried about how to reinvigorate provincial towns and cities .
As they pick this policy area up in the months ahead , there ’ ll surely be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they ’ re currently in .
Honestly , on the current trajectory , in some places there could be almost nothing left .
Small businesses : What is true of smaller independent retailers within towns and cities will also be true of other small businesses in surrounding areas .
In the middle of a local , national and global health crisis , pretty much everything will become a “ luxury good ” .
For example , many manufacturers will surely be pressured as markets in the UK and abroad dry up – again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Aside from manufacturers , sole traders like plumbers , electricians , builders , painters and others theoretically won ’ t even be allowed into many people ’ s homes .
And the forgiving terms from banks won ’ t be able to solve the problem of plummeting income .
Crime and anti-social behaviour : As I ’ ve been writing about here for many months , crime and anti-social behaviour is of massive and increasing concern across England .
People feel their town and city centres are in decline not simply because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re seeing an increase in open drug use and drug dealing and everything that comes from that .
If retail centres go into further decline , and if the police are even more thinly spread ( and indeed only going after the most serious crimes ) , it ’ s easy to imagine how towns and cities might feel more threatening and not less .
By the time things return to “ normal ” , what will these retail centres and our parks physically look like ?
Neighbourly behaviour : It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ London , people are much more likely to know their neighbours and they ’ re more likely to look out for each other casually .
That said , most people still live their own lives in their own homes – and many people do so on their own .
They do their own shopping , travel around by bus and car on their own , and so on .
It ’ s hard to read the Government ’ s exact intention on protecting old people ; on first hearing it sounds as if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stay in , with basically no exceptions other than extreme emergencies .
Listen again , and there ’ s a little more wriggle room .
We have to accept the Government ’ s advice , based on the experience of other countries ; but it would be wrong not to see that very draconian advice could see many older people completely cut off without obvious support .
Again , while support networks outside London are probably more extensive , they can ’ t replace the families that many people just don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sustainable this is .
Time will tell .
Cancelled summer holidays : Who cares about a cancelled holiday , if the intention is to protect people ’ s health ?
Almost everyone would agree with that .
But the mass cancellation of summer holidays will nonetheless be a big issue for people across the country .
Not only do vast numbers of people save for months to pay for their annual holiday , but they look forward to two weeks away almost from the time they get back to their local airport from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surely be looking forward to a break from the stresses of the last few weeks and months .
The impact of Coronavirus on people ’ s mental health – particularly those in isolation – has been well-documented .
Of course , people will put this into perspective if large numbers of people are seriously ill , but it will nonetheless be a source of upset and depression for many .
This is by no means an exhaustive list and arguably not the most important .
I ’ ve just listed some of those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people ’ s minds .
But what will the impact be on those on the streets ?
Smaller in number of course but who need special care .
What about the impact on domestic violence , with everyone stuck in their own homes ?
What about the impact on those with serious but non-life threatening health problems ?
With all this in mind , the Government ’ s mitigating factors will surely change endlessly over the coming months .
And at some point we ’ re surely likely to hear more about trade @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the economy after all is what builds all the hospitals , GP surgeries and everything else in the first place .

James Frayne is Director of Public First and author of Meet the People, a guide to moving public opinion.
In fighting Coronavirus, for the Government and the rest of us, the most important things are saving lives and maintaining the strength of the NHS. This is clearly the Government’s position.
But beyond this, the Government will be wrestling with a mass of competing policy pressures: how can Ministers prevent economic damage and maintain order in society and indeed morale (which we now call mental health or wellbeing)? Their primary focus for the foreseeable future will be on health, but it won’t be their only focus. It cannot be.
Others have written intelligently and persuasively about the health challenge; not wanting to sound blasé about it, the reality is I don’t have the experience to add anything on this. Instead, I look here at the challenges Coronavirus will pose to the everyday lives of those people I’ve been writing about for the last few years: the mass of working families outside the prosperous South East.
The Government is already on to at least some of these challenges, with Rishi Sunak set to announce a range of economic and financial policies imminently. Even this highly selective list poses extraordinary challenges to Government.
– – – – – – – – – –
Town and city centres: If pubs, restaurants, cafes and other shops close nationwide, it’s difficult to see how the result won’t be devastating for the communities of many towns and small cities.
Already badly struggling, the closure of these businesses, even temporarily, will surely finish off many of these town and city centres as we currently know them. Even if banks, HMRC and local councils offer them favourable financial terms, as looks likely, they’ll still be hit by a catastrophic loss of custom that will make the equivalent of tax holidays irrelevant.
And with the falling away of custom, large-scale redundancies will be followed by closures. The Government has rightly worried about how to reinvigorate provincial towns and cities. As they pick this policy area up in the months ahead, there’ll surely be starting in an even worse position than they’re currently in. Honestly, on the current trajectory, in some places there could be almost nothing left.
Small businesses: What is true of smaller independent retailers within towns and cities will also be true of other small businesses in surrounding areas.
In the middle of a local, national and global health crisis, pretty much everything will become a “luxury good”. For example, many manufacturers will surely be pressured as markets in the UK and abroad dry up – again, even if this is only temporary.
Aside from manufacturers, sole traders like plumbers, electricians, builders, painters and others theoretically won’t even be allowed into many people’s homes. And the forgiving terms from banks won’t be able to solve the problem of plummeting income.
Crime and anti-social behaviour: As I’ve been writing about here for many months, crime and anti-social behaviour is of massive and increasing concern across England.
People feel their town and city centres are in decline not simply because shops are closing, but because they’re seeing an increase in open drug use and drug dealing and everything that comes from that.
If retail centres go into further decline, and if the police are even more thinly spread (and indeed only going after the most serious crimes), it’s easy to imagine how towns and cities might feel more threatening and not less. By the time things return to “normal”, what will these retail centres and our parks physically look like?
Neighbourly behaviour: It’s not a cliche; outside of London, people are much more likely to know their neighbours and they’re more likely to look out for each other casually.
That said, most people still live their own lives in their own homes – and many people do so on their own. They do their own shopping, travel around by bus and car on their own, and so on. It’s hard to read the Government’s exact intention on protecting old people; on first hearing it sounds as if they’re saying the old should stay in, with basically no exceptions other than extreme emergencies.
Listen again, and there’s a little more wriggle room. We have to accept the Government’s advice, based on the experience of other countries; but it would be wrong not to see that very draconian advice could see many older people completely cut off without obvious support.
Again, while support networks outside London are probably more extensive, they can’t replace the families that many people just don’t have. You have to wonder how sustainable this is. Time will tell.
Cancelled summer holidays: Who cares about a cancelled holiday, if the intention is to protect people’s health? Almost everyone would agree with that.
But the mass cancellation of summer holidays will nonetheless be a big issue for people across the country. Not only do vast numbers of people save for months to pay for their annual holiday, but they look forward to two weeks away almost from the time they get back to their local airport from their last holiday. And they will surely be looking forward to a break from the stresses of the last few weeks and months.
The impact of Coronavirus on people’s mental health – particularly those in isolation – has been well-documented. Of course, people will put this into perspective if large numbers of people are seriously ill, but it will nonetheless be a source of upset and depression for many.
– – – – – – – – – –
This is by no means an exhaustive list and arguably not the most important. I’ve just listed some of those that are going to be top of people’s minds.
But what will the impact be on those on the streets? Smaller in number of course but who need special care. What about the impact on domestic violence, with everyone stuck in their own homes? What about the impact on those with serious but non-life threatening health problems?
With all this in mind, the Government’s mitigating factors will surely change endlessly over the coming months. And at some point we’re surely likely to hear more about trade offs and least-worst choices. The health of the economy after all is what builds all the hospitals, GP surgeries and everything else in the first place.


conservativehome--2020-03-17--Calling Conservatives: New public appointments announced. Chair of NHS Resolution – and more


conservativehome--2020-03-17--The economy and the virus. Tear up the rulebook – we need Big State Government on a scale unknown in

The economy and the virus. Tear up the rulebook – we need Big State Government on a scale unknown in modern times.

It is a cliche to say that a politician should “ think outside the box ” .
Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak now need not so much to think outside it as to trample it to tatters altogether – at least when drawing up an economic plan as well as a social one for countering the Coronavirus .
The focus of yesterday ’ s stark press conference was on people rather than the economy – on self-isolation , social distancing , mass gatherings and so on .
But on second thoughts , this is a mistaken way of considering the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abstract .
Rather , it is an organism , like a person – and could never be otherwise , since it is knit up with what people do .
With wages , jobs , firms , services , livelihoods and putting food on the table .
There can be little doubt that this collective person , our economy , faces the immediate prospect of a heart attack .
The OECD has said that growth worldwide may be more than halved this year to 1.5 per cent .
But the truth is that no-one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rage before mass immunity is reached or a vaccine is discovered .
Meanwhile , there is no knowing what damage the combination of the virus , Saudi-Russian oil strife , high levels of corporate debt , imperilled banks ( think Italy ) , the lack of international leadership from America , the torpid response of the European Union and China ’ s indebtedness could wreak .
Here in Britain , we are sliding at an accelerating pace towards recession amidst the threat of a global downturn , to put it no more starkly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a kind of reverse multiplier effect .
First , consider the workforce .
The self-employed , who don ’ t benefit from statutory sick pay or from measures to assist employers , are especially vulnerable .
Next , think by sector .
Pubs , restaurants , hotels , theatres , cinemas , cabs – all are already being hit hard and will be hit harder .
Now go on to mull those who can ’ t work from home , and are therefore most exposed to the Coronavirus – factory workers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drivers , teachers , policemen , health visitors , nurses , doctors , policemen : the mass of those who work in public services .
There are many other ways of slicing and dicing the working population .
All will have less money to spend .
That means a knock-on effect on the businesses from which they are no longer buying .
Which in turn means lay-offs and redundancies , and more hammering on the doors of the banks .
Who will be wary of lending to the uncreditworthy .
An era of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a mass of zombie firms .
Nadhim Zahawi channelled anxiety about banks ’ potential unwillingness to lend yesterday morning on this site , when he wrote that “ the early signs are that the banks will make use of these changes , but we need to make sure their full power is brought to bear ” .
The Business Minister went on to say that “ the Bank of England will be closely monitoring this , and I know the Government will be bringing pressure too ” .
He was referring to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ package – the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme , which bamkSunak said “ will unlock up to £1bn of attractive working capital loans to support small businesses , with more as needed ” .
The Chancellor did not desert the self-employed , who with others will benefit from the deferment of tax payments ; similarly , he eased the conditions around the receipt of Universal Credit , and waived Business Rates for some shops , cinemas , restaurants , and music venues for a year .
But the blunt truth is that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he was drawing were out of date before his Budget was even delivered .
We are thus reaching the point where he and Johnson must begin to “ think the unthinkable ” , as the saying has it .
Dealing with the Coronavirus has been compared to fighting a war – and there ’ s a lot in that figure of speech .
But it fails to capture the whole of what the Government must now deal with .
Wars can sometimes boost the economy , if the domestic market is secure as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did wonders for America ’ s , for example , as its homeland remained inviolate .
The virus is more like being battered in ascending scale by a mass of V2 rockets .
In such circumstances , the wartime Government would have propped up the entire economy – even more than it was already doing .
It successor must now prepare to do likewise , as follows : • Indirect means of funding businesses , such as loans from banks , will not be enough .
Government must be prepared directly to part-fund @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s example , in exchange for agreements not to lay off workers .
John Redwood , who is on fine form at the moment , suggested some conditions on his blog yesterday .
• Where there are no employers to support workers , the state must step in , supporting small businesses up to an agreed threshold via HMRC .
Sunak is putting in a helpline for his Time to Pay tax deferment Budget scheme , and it could double up for this purpose .
• Italy has suspended mortgages , rent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be necessary here and government will be required to cover the costs .
In France , Emmanuel Macron is declaring that no business will go bust • Business rates should be suspended across all sectors for “ as long as it takes ” .
Cuts in income tax would not encourage people to go out and spend in current circumstances .
Nonetheless , if the state is giving with one hand it would make little sense for it to take with the other .
A reduction in the standard rate there should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million Hardship Fund in the Budget – to be distributed to Local Authorities .
He will need to scale that up .
• It is hard to see why pubs , clubs and theatres , which potential users are being asked to avoid , are not being asked to close formally – thus enabling them to claim on their insurance policies .
( Unless the Government believes it might be asked to bale out the insurance sector . )
This is only the first draft of such a programme – which would need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business and unions .
It will be claimed that such a response would be socialism .
Not so : socialism is a doctrine with equality of outcome at its core .
Nor would it mean government seeking to run a state-directed fitness programme for the economy , as it were .
Rather , it would represent administering life support to ward off the economic heart seizure we describe .
Which would undoubtedly necessitate statism on a scale unparalleled in modern times .
This would make no sense in normal ones – but , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a conventional moment , and usual expectations must be reversed .
Government would fund such policies by means of a resumed QE programme and more borrowing – whatever it takes .
The Bank of England can be expected to cut interest rates even further during the coming weeks .
Sunak is to appear at Johnson ’ s press conference later today .
We hope that he sets out a path to a policy prospectus along these lines .

It is a cliche to say that a politician should “think outside the box”. Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak now need not so much to think outside it as to trample it to tatters altogether – at least when drawing up an economic plan as well as a social one for countering the Coronavirus.
The focus of yesterday’s stark press conference was on people rather than the economy – on self-isolation, social distancing, mass gatherings and so on. But on second thoughts, this is a mistaken way of considering the economy. For it is not an abstract. Rather, it is an organism, like a person – and could never be otherwise, since it is knit up with what people do. With wages, jobs, firms, services, livelihoods and putting food on the table.
There can be little doubt that this collective person, our economy, faces the immediate prospect of a heart attack. The OECD has said that growth worldwide may be more than halved this year to 1.5 per cent. But the truth is that no-one knows for how long the Coronavirus will rage before mass immunity is reached or a vaccine is discovered.
Meanwhile, there is no knowing what damage the combination of the virus, Saudi-Russian oil strife, high levels of corporate debt, imperilled banks (think Italy), the lack of international leadership from America, the torpid response of the European Union and China’s indebtedness could wreak. Here in Britain, we are sliding at an accelerating pace towards recession amidst the threat of a global downturn, to put it no more starkly than that.
We face the prospect of a kind of reverse multiplier effect. First, consider the workforce. The self-employed, who don’t benefit from statutory sick pay or from measures to assist employers, are especially vulnerable. Next, think by sector. Pubs, restaurants, hotels, theatres, cinemas, cabs – all are already being hit hard and will be hit harder.
Now go on to mull those who can’t work from home, and are therefore most exposed to the Coronavirus – factory workers, delivery people, shop assistants, bus drivers, teachers, policemen, health visitors, nurses, doctors, policemen: the mass of those who work in public services. There are many other ways of slicing and dicing the working population.
All will have less money to spend. That means a knock-on effect on the businesses from which they are no longer buying. Which in turn means lay-offs and redundancies, and more hammering on the doors of the banks. Who will be wary of lending to the uncreditworthy. An era of low interest rates has already led to a mass of zombie firms.
Nadhim Zahawi channelled anxiety about banks’ potential unwillingness to lend yesterday morning on this site, when he wrote that “the early signs are that the banks will make use of these changes, but we need to make sure their full power is brought to bear”. The Business Minister went on to say that “the Bank of England will be closely monitoring this, and I know the Government will be bringing pressure too”.
He was referring to the centrepiece of the Budget’s emergency package – the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme, which bamkSunak said “will unlock up to £1bn of attractive working capital loans to support small businesses, with more as needed”.
The Chancellor did not desert the self-employed, who with others will benefit from the deferment of tax payments; similarly, he eased the conditions around the receipt of Universal Credit, and waived Business Rates for some shops, cinemas, restaurants, and music venues for a year. But the blunt truth is that the Office for Budget Responsibility figures on which he was drawing were out of date before his Budget was even delivered.
We are thus reaching the point where he and Johnson must begin to “think the unthinkable”, as the saying has it. Dealing with the Coronavirus has been compared to fighting a war – and there’s a lot in that figure of speech. But it fails to capture the whole of what the Government must now deal with.
Wars can sometimes boost the economy, if the domestic market is secure as they rage. The Second World War did wonders for America’s, for example, as its homeland remained inviolate. The virus is more like being battered in ascending scale by a mass of V2 rockets. In such circumstances, the wartime Government would have propped up the entire economy – even more than it was already doing. It successor must now prepare to do likewise, as follows:
Indirect means of funding businesses, such as loans from banks, will not be enough. Government must be prepared directly to part-fund employers and workers, drawing on Denmark’s example, in exchange for agreements not to lay off workers. John Redwood, who is on fine form at the moment, suggested some conditions on his blog yesterday.
Where there are no employers to support workers, the state must step in, supporting small businesses up to an agreed threshold via HMRC. Sunak is putting in a helpline for his Time to Pay tax deferment Budget scheme, and it could double up for this purpose.
Italy has suspended
mortgages, rent and household bills. The same looks to be necessary here and government will be required to cover the costs. In France, Emmanuel Macron is declaring that no business will go bust
Business rates should be suspended across all sectors for “as long as it takes”. Cuts in income tax would not encourage people to go out and spend in current circumstances. Nonetheless, if the state is giving with one hand it would make little sense for it to take with the other. A reduction in the standard rate there should be.
Sunak announced a £500 million Hardship Fund in the Budget – to be distributed to Local Authorities. He will need to scale that up.
It is hard to see why pubs, clubs and theatres, which potential users are being asked to avoid, are not being asked to close formally – thus enabling them to claim on their insurance policies. (Unless the Government believes it might be asked to bale out the insurance sector.)
This is only the first draft of such a programme – which would need to be discussed, 1970s-style, with business and unions.
It will be claimed that such a response would be socialism. Not so: socialism is a doctrine with equality of outcome at its core.
Nor would it mean government seeking to run a state-directed fitness programme for the economy, as it were. Rather, it would represent administering life support to ward off the economic heart seizure we describe.
Which would undoubtedly necessitate statism on a scale unparalleled in modern times. This would make no sense in normal ones – but, as we say, these is not a conventional moment, and usual expectations must be reversed.
Government would fund such policies by means of a resumed QE programme and more borrowing – whatever it takes. The Bank of England can be expected to cut interest rates even further during the coming weeks.
Sunak is to appear at Johnson’s press conference later today. We hope that he sets out a path to a policy prospectus along these lines.


Coronavirus Count

Total number of cases in the UK : 1,543 ( Up from 1,391 at last count on this site ) .
From the Government ’ s website Number of coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) cases and risk in the UK .
Total UK cases COVID-19 Cases Update .
The above are figures for England .
“ The risk to the UK has been raised to high ” – From the Government ’ s website Number of coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) cases and risk in the UK .
THE GOVERNMENT ’ S NEW ADVICE ON SOCIAL DISTANCING , AND PROTECTING OLDER PEOPLE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as of Monday March 16 .
HOW TO AVOID CATCHING OR SPREADING CORONAVIRUS • Wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds .
• Always wash your hands when you get home or into work .
• Use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available .
• Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve ( not your hands ) when you cough or sneeze .
• Put used tissues in the bin straight away and wash your hands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact with people who are unwell .
The symptoms of coronavirus are : However , these symptoms do not necessarily mean you have the illness .
The symptoms are similar to other illnesses that are much more common , such as cold and flu .
NHS 111 has an online coronavirus service that can tell you if you need medical help and advise you what to do .
Use this service if : • You think you might have coronavirus .
• In the last 14 days you ’ ve been to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of coronavirus – see the coronavirus advice for travellers .
• You ’ ve been in close contact with someone with coronavirus .
• In Scotland call your GP or NHS 24 on 111 out of hours .
• In Wales call 111 ( if available in your area ) or 0845 46 47 .
• Do not go to a GP surgery , pharmacy or hospital .
• What the coronavirus is , how it ’ s spread and how to avoid catching it – Government NHS website overview .
• Stay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ self-isolation .
All information taken from Government sources .
Update as of 7am on Tuesday March 17th .

HEADLINE FACTS
Total number of lab-confirmed UK cases: 292,950 (Up from 291,409).
Total number of COVID-19 associated UK deaths: 41,481 (Up from 41,279).
Daily number of lab-confirmed UK cases: 1,541 (Up from 1,266).
Daily number of COVID-19 associated UK deaths: 202 (Up from 151).
England total cases: 156,410 (Up from 156,018 ).
England total deaths: 37,069 (Up from 36,883).
England death rate: 279.4 (Was 278.7).
Scotland total cases: 15,709 (Up from 15,682).
Scotland total deaths: 2,439 (Up from 2,434).
Scotland death rate: 288.9 (Was 288.4).
Wales total cases: 14,658 (Up from 14,581).
Wales total deaths: 1,435 (Up from 1,425).
Wales death rate: 467.0 (Was 464.6)
Northern Ireland total cases: 4,838 (Up from 4,822)
Northern Ireland total deaths: 538 (Up from 537).
Northern Ireland death rate: 257.1 (Was 256.3).
From the Government’s website Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK.
DAILY NUMBER OF COVID-19 ASSOCIATED DEATHS BY DATE REPORTED
DAILY NUMBER OF LAB-CONFIRMED ENGLAND CASES
From the Government’s website Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK.
– – –
RISK
“The risk to the UK has been raised to high” –
From the Government’s website Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK.
– – –
NHS VOLUNTEER RESPONDER FORM
See here
(The Government’s scheme to recruit 250,000 volunteers.)
– – –
OUR PLAN TO REBUILD: THE UK GOVERNMENT’S COVID-19 RECOVERY STRATEGY
See here. New as of Monday May 11.
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE ON THE LOCKDOWN.
See here. New as of Tuesday June 2.
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE ON SHIELDING AND PROTECTING PEOPLE WHO ARE CLINICALLY EXTREMELY VULNERABLE FROM COVID-19
See here. New as of Tuesday June 2.
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE ON SOCIAL DISTANCING
See here. New as of Tuesday June 2.
GOVERNMENT WEBSITE: GENERAL ADVICE
See here.
GOVERNMENT WEBSITE: FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS. WHAT YOU CAN DO AND CAN’T DO
See here.
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE FOR LANDLORDS, TENANTS AND LOCAL AUTHORITIES NEW
See here. Published on Saturday March 28.
– – –
HOW TO AVOID CATCHING OR SPREADING CORONAVIRUS
Wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds .
Always wash your hands when you get home or into work .
Use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available .
Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when you cough or sneeze .
Put used tissues in the bin straight away and wash your hands afterwards .
Try to avoid close contact with people who are unwell.
SYMPTOMS
The symptoms of coronavirus are:
A cough.
A high temperature.
Shortness of breath.
However, these symptoms do not necessarily mean you have the illness.
The symptoms are similar to other illnesses that are much more common, such as cold and flu.
USING 111
NHS 111 has an online coronavirus service that can tell you if you need medical help and advise you what to do.
Use this service if:
You think you might have coronavirus.
In the last 14 days you’ve been to a country or area with a high risk of coronavirus – see the coronavirus advice for travellers.
You’ve been in close contact with someone with coronavirus.
In Scotland call your GP or NHS 24 on 111 out of hours.
In Wales call 111 (if available in your area) or 0845 46 47.
In Northern Ireland call 111.
Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital.
FURTHER LINKS TO GOVERNMENT ADVICE
– – –
(All information taken from Government sources.
Updated as of 19.00 on Friday June 12.)


conservativehome--2020-03-17--The Moggcast. The Government must tackle the virus with “evidence rather than emotion”.

You can also listen and subscribe to the Moggcast on iTunes , through our YouTube channel , or through the @ @ @ @ @ well as on Spotify , Alexa and via numerous leading podcast services .

You can also listen and subscribe to the Moggcast on iTunes, through our YouTube channel, or through the RSS feed here, as well as on Spotify, Alexa and via numerous leading podcast services.


conservativehome--2020-03-17--Richard Cook: My business experience has helped me to provide effective leadership for Gloucester

Cllr Richard Cook is the Leader of Gloucester City Council .
A little over four years ago , a friend of a friend approached me and asked if I would like to stand as a councillor , in the soon to be created ward of Kingsway , in Gloucester .
Only two years before , I had moved from Reading to Gloucester to retire , having spent all of my career in the private sector .
Much of that time was spent in senior management with a major international airline , but the last 10 years before retirement was spent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first thought was “ what do I know about the public sector ” ?
My second thought was “ nothing ” .
My first questions were “ What ’ s involved and how much time will it take up ” ?
They were answered with “ The odd meeting ” and “ Two or three hours a week ” .
Hmm !
I agreed to do it – and just under four years ago , was elected as a councillor for the first time .
I found out quite quickly that those answers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ backbencher , there is an awful lot to learn .
There was the expectation that you have to join a committee such as Planning , Licensing , or Audit ; the learning that goes with that ; and the reading of all the papers .
There is the need to deal with your residents ’ issues – and finding out how to do that .
Three months after election , I was invited to join Cabinet .
This was primarily because the Council had major contractual problems with our largest supplier and my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made me an ideal choice to sort out the problems .
It took a long time but eventually those problems were sorted .
The Council/supplier relationship is now cordial , even friendly , and the service provided is much better .
About a year ago , the then Leader of the Council privately advised that he would not be seeking re-election at the next elections , which have been delayed until next year .
He asked me if I would be prepared to take his role .
Despite considerable misgivings I agreed and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For me it has been a real meteoric rise .
I still can ’ t quite understand how the complete newbie four years ago has found himself as Leader of the Council .
It was not something I ever considered and it was not something I ever even wanted .
By a series of “ accidents ” , being in the right place at the right time , I have ended up in a quite unbelievable position , and still find myself bemused at times .
I recognise that there is so much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I need to .
It has been a considerable trial – a real baptism of fire , but most difficulties have been surmounted and we now look forward to the upcoming elections in May .
For Gloucester our elections are “ all out ” .
Every seat will be contested .
Thirty nine seats in eighteen wards .
The current political split in the Council is 19 Conservatives ( one hospitalised and unable to attend Council meetings ) , nine Labour , nine Liberal Democrat , and two Independent ( one of whom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
At the last election in 2016 we had a political split of 22 Conservatives , 10 Labour and seven Liberal Democrats , but by-elections and other changes have put the Administration into a technical minority .
I am hopeful that I will be leading a strong and united team into next year ’ s elections – a team that will be working collectively to ensure we return a substantially enlarged majority from that returned in 2016 .
And I expect to be leading from the front , demonstrating my personal belief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is to work hard , to show determination , and to lead by example .
When I first became a councillor I had little knowledge of what I was letting myself in for .
I have spent the past four years fighting several elections , firstly for myself but subsequently on behalf of others , including our MP twice .
I have spent the last four years learning about the public sector and how it works .
I have spent the last four years preparing for this moment , when I lead my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first time .
I will ensure our united determination capitalises on our opposition ’ s disunity and disarray .
It is weeks of effort which will be followed by four more years of stability .
Definitely a sacrifice worth the gain .

Cllr Richard Cook is the Leader of Gloucester City Council.
A little over four years ago, a friend of a friend approached me and asked if I would like to stand as a councillor, in the soon to be created ward of Kingsway, in Gloucester. Only two years before, I had moved from Reading to Gloucester to retire, having spent all of my career in the private sector. Much of that time was spent in senior management with a major international airline, but the last 10 years before retirement was spent running my own businesses.
So my first thought was “what do I know about the public sector”? My second thought was “nothing”. My first questions were “What’s involved and how much time will it take up”? They were answered with “The odd meeting” and “Two or three hours a week”. Hmm!
I agreed to do it – and just under four years ago, was elected as a councillor for the first time. I found out quite quickly that those answers were not true. Even as a backbencher, there is an awful lot to learn. There was the expectation that you have to join a committee such as Planning, Licensing, or Audit; the learning that goes with that; and the reading of all the papers. There is the need to deal with your residents’ issues – and finding out how to do that.
Three months after election, I was invited to join Cabinet. This was primarily because the Council had major contractual problems with our largest supplier and my contract management background in the airline industry made me an ideal choice to sort out the problems. It took a long time but eventually those problems were sorted. The Council/supplier relationship is now cordial, even friendly, and the service provided is much better.
About a year ago, the then Leader of the Council privately advised that he would not be seeking re-election at the next elections, which have been delayed until next year. He asked me if I would be prepared to take his role. Despite considerable misgivings I agreed and in November took over as Leader.
For me it has been a real meteoric rise. I still can’t quite understand how the complete newbie four years ago has found himself as Leader of the Council. It was not something I ever considered and it was not something I ever even wanted. By a series of “accidents”, being in the right place at the right time, I have ended up in a quite unbelievable position, and still find myself bemused at times. I recognise that there is so much to learn and struggle to do all I need to. It has been a considerable trial – a real baptism of fire, but most difficulties have been surmounted and we now look forward to the upcoming elections in May.
For Gloucester our elections are “all out”. Every seat will be contested. Thirty nine seats in eighteen wards. The current political split in the Council is 19 Conservatives (one hospitalised and unable to attend Council meetings), nine Labour, nine Liberal Democrat, and two Independent (one of whom is on an agreed leave of absence). At the last election in 2016 we had a political split of 22 Conservatives, 10 Labour and seven Liberal Democrats, but by-elections and other changes have put the Administration into a technical minority.
I am hopeful that I will be leading a strong and united team into next year’s elections – a team that will be working collectively to ensure we return a substantially enlarged majority from that returned in 2016.
And I expect to be leading from the front, demonstrating my personal belief that the only way to ensure success is to work hard, to show determination, and to lead by example. When I first became a councillor I had little knowledge of what I was letting myself in for. I have spent the past four years fighting several elections, firstly for myself but subsequently on behalf of others, including our MP twice. I have spent the last four years learning about the public sector and how it works. I have spent the last four years preparing for this moment, when I lead my local party into an election for the first time. I will ensure our united determination capitalises on our opposition’s disunity and disarray. It is weeks of effort which will be followed by four more years of stability. Definitely a sacrifice worth the gain.


conservativehome--2020-03-17--The Chancellor’s statement. A firm second step – but he must go further to deliver “whatever it take

The Chancellor’s statement. A firm second step – but he must go further to deliver “whatever it takes”.

We called this morning for the Government to stand behind the British economy in a manner unique in modern times – arguably in this country ’ s entire history .
That means working with employers and unions , in a manner not seen for some 50 years , to fund employers and workers directly .
Which will also entail special arrangements for the 15 per cent or so of the latter who are self-employed .
That implies the suspension of mortgages , rents , council tax and household bills ; of business rates across all sectors ; of a bigger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cut at the standard rate , because it makes no sense for the state to be giving with one hand and taking with the other .
Such a package is in our view “ whatever it takes ” : resuscitation for an economic heart seizure .
However , Rishi Sunak does not have the luxury of being able to implement ideals at once .
He must act in real time with imperfect powers : if he announces emergency relief schemes , for example , the infrastructure won ’ t be in place to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the manpower , the computer systems , the phone lines , the publicity .
Our reading of his statement is that the most important section of it is his commitment “ in the coming days… [ to ] work with trade unions and business groups to urgently develop new forms of employment support to help protect people ’ s jobs and incomes through this period ” .
That sounds a lot like further direct help to come in the form of grants .
It was not correct , as the BBC ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Chancellor ’ s latest package consists entirely of loans .
He is extending a business rates holiday .
He is increasing grants to 700,000 of the smallest businesses .
And the Government has persuaded mortgage lenders to offer a three month payment holiday .
Sunak and Boris Johnson also claimed that they have persuaded the insurance industry , which was digging in its heels over making payments , to move – and pay up .
It is significant that the Chancellor also said that there will be “ a new legal power @ @ @ @ @ @ @ further financial support I decide is necessary ” .
That seems to us to pave the way for the kind of Big State Government action that , in these upside-down times , is necessary and urgent on a previously unimaginable scale .
None the less , the biggest bazooka in Sunak ’ s armoury was the more than doubling of his Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme .
This offered loans of up to £1.2 million when he first announced it in the Budget – how long ago that seems now – and he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million .
The Chancellor argues that what firms most need is immediate help with paying rent , salaries and suppliers .
That is surely correct .
The question is whether business , the markets and workers fix their gaze on this loan scheme centrepiece or on the Sunak ’ s evident intent to go further very soon .
If they concentrate their attention on the former , and on the gaps in the Chancellor ’ s statement , this package will fail to reassure .
What about renters , it ’ s being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Business Rates holiday ?
The self-employed ?
Recipients of Universal Credit – designed , remember , partly as a support payment for workers ?
£330 billion of guarantees is a humunguous figure – well over a third of public spending as a whole .
But again a question arises of what that statistic looks like broken down into grants and loans .
It may be irrational for firms or people to gripe about the latter when they are being made available on this sweeping scale .
And it will also be the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ very soft .
None the less , Sunak , as he well knows , will be back at the press conference podium and the Commons despatch box in days rather than weeks with new announcements , in the wake of the discussions with employers and unions for which we called today , and which he will now undertake It is weird to write that a package of some third of public spending is no more than a solid second step for the Chancellor , but there it is .
He as , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , “ on a journey ” .

We called this morning for the Government to stand behind the British economy in a manner unique in modern times – arguably in this country’s entire history.
That means working with employers and unions, in a manner not seen for some 50 years, to fund employers and workers directly. Which will also entail special arrangements for the 15 per cent or so of the latter who are self-employed.
That implies the suspension of mortgages, rents, council tax and household bills; of business rates across all sectors; of a bigger hardship fund, and an income tax cut at the standard rate, because it makes no sense for the state to be giving with one hand and taking with the other.
Such a package is in our view “whatever it takes”: resuscitation for an economic heart seizure.
However, Rishi Sunak does not have the luxury of being able to implement ideals at once. He must act in real time with imperfect powers: if he announces emergency relief schemes, for example, the infrastructure won’t be in place to get them up and running immediatedly; the manpower, the computer systems, the phone lines, the publicity.
Our reading of his statement is that the most important section of it is his commitment “in the coming days…[to] work with trade unions and business groups to urgently develop new forms of employment support to help protect people’s jobs and incomes through this period”.
That sounds a lot like further direct help to come in the form of grants. It was not correct, as the BBC’s initial reporting claimed this evening, that the Chancellor’s latest package consists entirely of loans. He is extending a business rates holiday. He is increasing grants to 700,000 of the smallest businesses.
And the Government has persuaded mortgage lenders to offer a three month payment holiday. Sunak and Boris Johnson also claimed that they have persuaded the insurance industry, which was digging in its heels over making payments, to move – and pay up.
It is significant that the Chancellor also said that there will be “a new legal power in the Covid Bill to offer whatever further financial support I decide is necessary”. That seems to us to pave the way for the kind of Big State Government action that, in these upside-down times, is necessary and urgent on a previously unimaginable scale.
None the less, the biggest bazooka in Sunak’s armoury was the more than doubling of his Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme. This offered loans of up to £1.2 million when he first announced it in the Budget – how long ago that seems now – and he is now upping that figure to £5 million.
The Chancellor argues that what firms most need is immediate help with paying rent, salaries and suppliers. That is surely correct. The question is whether business, the markets and workers fix their gaze on this loan scheme centrepiece or on the Sunak’s evident intent to go further very soon.
If they concentrate their attention on the former, and on the gaps in the Chancellor’s statement, this package will fail to reassure. What about renters, it’s being asked? Or firms not eligible for the Business Rates holiday? The self-employed? Recipients of Universal Credit – designed, remember, partly as a support payment for workers?
£330 billion of guarantees is a humunguous figure – well over a third of public spending as a whole.
But again a question arises of what that statistic looks like broken down into grants and loans. It may be irrational for firms or people to gripe about the latter when they are being made available on this sweeping scale. And it will also be the case that many are bound to be very soft.
None the less, Sunak, as he well knows, will be back at the press conference podium and the Commons despatch box in days rather than weeks with new announcements, in the wake of the discussions with employers and unions for which we called today, and which he will now undertake
It is weird to write that a package of some third of public spending is no more than a solid second step for the Chancellor, but there it is. He as, as Cameroon modernisers used to like to say, “on a journey”.