conservativehome--2020-05-06--Andrew Gimson’s PMQs sketch: The Prime Minister is forced to fight a defensive battle

Boris Johnson paid Sir Keir Starmer the compliment of taking him seriously , and was right to do so .
Starmer brings with him the solemnity of the court room .
His objective is to have Boris Johnson declared guilty , and he will not mind if he has to wait four years before the British people bring in that verdict .
But he had fortunately corrected his error of last week when he put questions to Dominic Raab which were far too long .
This time , Starmer touched on the latest death figure , 29,427 , and asked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ come to this ?
” Johnson , sounding a bit defensive , took cover behind Professor David Spiegelhalter , who has warned that it is virtually impossible to make international comparisons .
Starmer held up one of the daily graphs from the Downing Street press conference , which makes international comparisons .
He went on to ask why , on the last day of April , the number of tests carried out was so high , only for it to fall back at the start of May .
The answer , everyone knew @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health Secretary , had promised to achieve 100,000 tests a day by the end of April .
Here , it appeared , was a cross-examiner so unscrupulous that he would only ask questions to which the answer was already generally known , but to which it would be embarrassing for Johnson to give a candid reply .
“ Yes he ’ s right that capacity exceeds demand , ” the Prime Minister said , and proceeded to announce that there will be 200,000 tests a day by the end of this month .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the new target , “ but of course just having a target isn ’ t a strategy ” .
Unkind words .
Johnson offered no strategy – he did not wish to pre-empt whatever it is that he will say to the nation on Sunday .
The Speaker , Sir Lindsay Hoyle , told the Prime Minister that in future he must make statements to the House first .
Johnson said he will be coming to the House on Monday .
So we need wait only five days before Starmer continues his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough while on his feet , but even then was prevented from playing his natural game , which is to disrupt any line of questioning he finds tiresome by talking instead about something the audience will find more amusing , whereupon the inquisitor ’ s anger becomes part of the joke .
In repose , Johnson looked pale and tired , as well he might after all he has been through .
He will certainly be contemplating how to disrupt this inquisitor .
Once the nation is recovering from the pandemic , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rebuild the economy , one can expect the Prime Minister to suggest that the Leader of the Opposition is being ever so slightly negative .
But just now , the situation is still too serious to brush aside Starmer .
Johnson was obliged to fight a defensive battle , on a field chosen by his opponent : something Jeremy Corbyn never achieved .

Boris Johnson paid Sir Keir Starmer the compliment of taking him seriously, and was right to do so.
Starmer brings with him the solemnity of the court room. His objective is to have Boris Johnson declared guilty, and he will not mind if he has to wait four years before the British people bring in that verdict.
But he had fortunately corrected his error of last week when he put questions to Dominic Raab which were far too long.
This time, Starmer touched on the latest death figure, 29,427, and asked: “How on earth did it come to this?”
Johnson, sounding a bit defensive, took cover behind Professor David Spiegelhalter, who has warned that it is virtually impossible to make international comparisons.
Starmer held up one of the daily graphs from the Downing Street press conference, which makes international comparisons. He went on to ask why, on the last day of April, the number of tests carried out was so high, only for it to fall back at the start of May.
The answer, everyone knew, was that Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, had promised to achieve 100,000 tests a day by the end of April. Here, it appeared, was a cross-examiner so unscrupulous that he would only ask questions to which the answer was already generally known, but to which it would be embarrassing for Johnson to give a candid reply.
“Yes he’s right that capacity exceeds demand,” the Prime Minister said, and proceeded to announce that there will be 200,000 tests a day by the end of this month.
Starmer was “glad” to hear of the new target, “but of course just having a target isn’t a strategy”.
Unkind words. Johnson offered no strategy – he did not wish to pre-empt whatever it is that he will say to the nation on Sunday. The Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, told the Prime Minister that in future he must make statements to the House first.
Johnson said he will be coming to the House on Monday. So we need wait only five days before Starmer continues his cross-examination.
The Prime Minister was vigorous enough while on his feet, but even then was prevented from playing his natural game, which is to disrupt any line of questioning he finds tiresome by talking instead about something the audience will find more amusing, whereupon the inquisitor’s anger becomes part of the joke.
In repose, Johnson looked pale and tired, as well he might after all he has been through. He will certainly be contemplating how to disrupt this inquisitor.
Once the nation is recovering from the pandemic, and the Government has announced ambitious plans to rebuild the economy, one can expect the Prime Minister to suggest that the Leader of the Opposition is being ever so slightly negative.
But just now, the situation is still too serious to brush aside Starmer. Johnson was obliged to fight a defensive battle, on a field chosen by his opponent: something Jeremy Corbyn never achieved.


conservativehome--2020-05-07--Calling Conservatives: New public appointments announced. Trustee of the British Council – and more

Eight years ago , the TaxPayers ’ Alliance reported that “ in the last year , five times more Labour people were appointed to public bodies than Tories ” .
It currently reports that almost half of avowedly political appointees last year owed their allegiance to Labour Party , compared to less than a third for the Conservatives .
Despite the selection of some Party members or supporters to fill important posts , over time , the Conservatives have punched beneath their weight when it comes to public appointments .
One of the reasons seems to be that Tories simply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number as Labour supporters .
To help remedy this , each week we put up links to some of the main public appointments vacancies , so that qualified Conservatives can be aware of the opportunities presented .
“ The Board of Trustees is made up of 15 members .
Board members are guardians of the British Council ’ s purpose and strategy and are ultimately accountable for the organisation ’ s actions and performance .
The Board delegates responsibility for the management of the British Council to the Chief Executive .
The Board @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Corporate Plan and approves the British Council ’ s annual accounts .
The Board of Trustees meets seven times a year with its committees meeting four times a year in addition .
More details about the governance and funding are available at [ link ] .
The British Council is registered as a charity in England and Scotland and is regulated by charity law .
It is committed to a policy of equal opportunity and works to reflect the diversity of UK society at every level within the organisation.
” “ The Health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Crown Non-Departmental Public Body sponsored by the Department for Work and Pensions ( DWP ) .
It is responsible for the prevention of workplace illness , injury and death across the UK .
DWP is seeking a Chair with a range of established skills and competences to help set HSE ’ s strategic direction to 2025 and beyond , drive regulatory excellence and oversee the organisation ’ s governance arrangements .
We are therefore looking for candidates who can bring experience from other national and/or international organisations with challenges on a similarly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Chair is expected to attend and preside over eight Board meetings a year , which take place at HSE ’ s headquarters in Bootle , Merseyside or in the regions or devolved administrations and involve an overnight stay.
” “ The Institute was established as a Crown Non-Departmental Public Body , independent of Government and employer-led with a mandate set by Ministers .
The Institute is playing a vital role in continuing the apprenticeship and technical education reform process and works on behalf of employers to support the delivery of high quality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Institute enables apprentices or learners to be confident that their apprenticeship or T Level is of high quality , respected and will help them to build a career with a clear market value.
” “ Led by the Non-Executive Chair , the Crown Commercial Service ( CCS ) Board is responsible for the oversight of the operation of CCS , with emphasis on its strategic direction , management control , and corporate governance .
All Non-Executive Board Members are expected to contribute to decisions covering the strategy for the organisation and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ value by offering counsel , advice and challenge .
We are seeking an exceptional individual to join our Board as a Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Technology and Digital Transformation Committee to support progression of our transformation journey… To complement our existing Board we are particularly interested in hearing from individuals who bring recent experience in leading large scale digital transformation in either the private or public sector.
” “ The CCRC ’ s role is to investigate and review cases where it is alleged that a miscarriage of justice may have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or both .
The CCRC is entrusted with the exercise of wide-ranging , and sometimes intrusive , statutory powers .
Commissioners are supported by senior managers , legal and investigations advisers , casework and administrative staff .
Investigations are mainly carried out by CCRC staff but CCRC can require others , such as the police , to carry out investigations on its behalf… Commissioners may be called on to provide specialist advice depending on their background and expertise .
Commissioners may also be involved in the training of staff and of fellow Commissioners @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they bring.
” “ As a non-executive director , you will play an active role on the board of SLC , supporting the SLC Executive Team and SLC Chair to deliver the company ’ s portfolio of priorities , overcome challenges and exploit opportunities , including the continued growth of its customer base , delivery of recommendations from the Tailored Review ( Annex 3 ) and implementation of the Review of Post-18 Education .
A key element of the role will be to work with the board to ensure that the resources and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with and focussed on its delivery obligations .
The SLC administers the data underpinning one of Government ’ s major assets : the Student Loan book .
This data supports the sale of tranches of loans to monetise that asset for the benefit of the exchequer and taxpayers ( £3.6bn raised to date ) .
There may be other opportunities to realise the value , in the widest sense , of the SLC ’ s data in the future .
”

Eight years ago, the TaxPayers’ Alliance reported that “in the last year, five times more Labour people were appointed to public bodies than Tories”.
It currently reports that almost half of avowedly political appointees last year owed their allegiance to Labour Party, compared to less than a third for the Conservatives.
Despite the selection of some Party members or supporters to fill important posts, over time, the Conservatives have punched beneath their weight when it comes to public appointments. One of the reasons seems to be that Tories simply don’t apply in the same number as Labour supporters.
To help remedy this, each week we put up links to some of the main public appointments vacancies, so that qualified Conservatives can be aware of the opportunities presented.
– – – – – – – – – –
British Council – Board Trustee
“The Board of Trustees is made up of 15 members. Board members are guardians of the British Council’s purpose and strategy and are ultimately accountable for the organisation’s actions and performance. The Board delegates responsibility for the management of the British Council to the Chief Executive. The Board also agrees the British Council’s Corporate Plan and approves the British Council’s annual accounts. The Board of Trustees meets seven times a year with its committees meeting four times a year in addition. More details about the governance and funding are available at [link]. The British Council is registered as a charity in England and Scotland and is regulated by charity law. It is committed to a policy of equal opportunity and works to reflect the diversity of UK society at every level within the organisation.”
Time: 18 days per annum.
Remuneration: “Reasonable expenses”.
Closes: 08 May
– – – – – – – – – –
Health & Safety Executive – Chair
“The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) is a Crown Non-Departmental Public Body sponsored by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). It is responsible for the prevention of workplace illness, injury and death across the UK. DWP is seeking a Chair with a range of established skills and competences to help set HSE’s strategic direction to 2025 and beyond, drive regulatory excellence and oversee the organisation’s governance arrangements. We are therefore looking for candidates who can bring experience from other national and/or international organisations with challenges on a similarly large scale to those facing HSE. The Chair is expected to attend and preside over eight Board meetings a year, which take place at HSE’s headquarters in Bootle, Merseyside or in the regions or devolved administrations and involve an overnight stay.”
Time: 3 days per week.
Remuneration: £84,000 per annum.
Closes: 10 May
– – – – – – – – – –
Institute for Apprenticeships and Technical Education – Non-Executive Board Member
“The Institute was established as a Crown Non-Departmental Public Body, independent of Government and employer-led with a mandate set by Ministers. The Institute is playing a vital role in continuing the apprenticeship and technical education reform process and works on behalf of employers to support the delivery of high quality apprenticeships and T Levels in England. The Institute enables apprentices or learners to be confident that their apprenticeship or T Level is of high quality, respected and will help them to build a career with a clear market value.”
Time: 2 days per month on average
Remuneration: £15,000 per annum.
Closes: 15 May
– – – – – – – – – –
Crown Commercial Service – Non-Executive Directors
“Led by the Non-Executive Chair, the Crown Commercial Service (CCS) Board is responsible for the oversight of the operation of CCS, with emphasis on its strategic direction, management control, and corporate governance. All Non-Executive Board Members are expected to contribute to decisions covering the strategy for the organisation and the overall direction of the business, adding value by offering counsel, advice and challenge. We are seeking an exceptional individual to join our Board as a Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Technology and Digital Transformation Committee to support progression of our transformation journey… To complement our existing Board we are particularly interested in hearing from individuals who bring recent experience in leading large scale digital transformation in either the private or public sector.”
Time: Approx 2-3 days per month.
Remuneration: £15,000 per annum.
Closes: 17 May
– – – – – – – – – –
Criminal Cases Review Commission – Commissioners
“The CCRC’s role is to investigate and review cases where it is alleged that a miscarriage of justice may have occurred in relation to conviction, sentence or both. The CCRC is entrusted with the exercise of wide-ranging, and sometimes intrusive, statutory powers. Commissioners are supported by senior managers, legal and investigations advisers, casework and administrative staff. Investigations are mainly carried out by CCRC staff but CCRC can require others, such as the police, to carry out investigations on its behalf… Commissioners may be called on to provide specialist advice depending on their background and expertise. Commissioners may also be involved in the training of staff and of fellow Commissioners; again, depending on the expertise they bring.”
Time: Min. 52 days per annum.
Remuneration: £358 per diem.
Closes: 18 May
– – – – – – – – – –
Student Loans Company Board – Non-Executive Directors
“As a non-executive director, you will play an active role on the board of SLC, supporting the SLC Executive Team and SLC Chair to deliver the company’s portfolio of priorities, overcome challenges and exploit opportunities, including the continued growth of its customer base, delivery of recommendations from the Tailored Review (Annex 3) and implementation of the Review of Post-18 Education. A key element of the role will be to work with the board to ensure that the resources and skills available to the Company are commensurate with and focussed on its delivery obligations. The SLC administers the data underpinning one of Government’s major assets: the Student Loan book. This data supports the sale of tranches of loans to monetise that asset for the benefit of the exchequer and taxpayers (£3.6bn raised to date). There may be other opportunities to realise the value, in the widest sense, of the SLC’s data in the future.”
Time: Two days per month.
Remuneration: £12,000, up to £17,000.
Closes: 19 May


conservativehome--2020-05-07--Trust in the BBC hasn’t collapsed – but it can’t afford to ignore the creeping rot of polarisation

One of the ( many ) political battles to be put in the freezer by the onset of the Covid-19 crisis was the looming clash over the future of the BBC .
In the immediate aftermath of the election , Government sources were bullish about pushing for aggressive reform – even to an extent which disquieted some Tory MPs .
Any such plans have been overtaken by events .
But those amongst the Corporation ’ s defenders hoping that the pandemic will kill off talk of reform are surely over-optimistic .
Even senior sources at the BBC concede that whilst @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showcase its strengths , it hasn ’ t changed the long-term outlook all that much .
When something resembling normal politics returns , so too will this debate .
The shape of it could hinge on whether or not the BBC is viewed as having had a ‘ good crisis ’ .
A couple of recent polls appeared to suggest that it hadn ’ t – or at least , that its sector hadn ’ t .
First , a poll for the Press Gazette , carried out by PR firm Kekst CNC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confidence in the media since the outbreak began ” .
This seemed to be backed up by another poll for Sky News which found the media “ performing disastrously ” in terms of public trust .
But not so fast .
Will Jennings and Chris Curtis , of YouGov , point out that this represents not so much a collapse in trust for the media as a surge in trust in the Government , as political leaders benefit from a ‘ rally-round-the-flag ’ effect which lifts their usually abysmal ratings .
There ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ polling , which tested respondents opinions on more specific categories of journalist , found ‘ BBC journalists ’ outperforming their counterparts at ITV and the newspapers .
This tallies with findings from the Reuters Institute which found 60 per cent of respondents thought the Corporation was ‘ doing a good job ’ , versus just 37 per cent for ‘ the news media ’ .
And Ofcom , in their most recent study of consumption and attitudes towards Covid-19 coverage , find that : “ BBC TV is the most trusted source for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ England 78 % , Scotland 76 % , Wales 78 % and Northern Ireland 79 % ) .
” Such figures do two things .
First , they vindicate BBC sources who suggest that the Sky polling fails to capture the Corporation ’ s performance by lumping them in with ‘ TV journalists ’ as a whole .
By the same token , these findings suggest that the BBC ’ s critics are on to a loser when they argue that the BBC ’ s coverage is insufficiently different from that of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ detect some sort of difference .
But if BBC executives take comfort in these findings , there is another thread running through these which ought to be causing them concern : polarisation .
According to the above-linked YouGov data , Conservative voters are much more likely to trust mid-market and ‘ red top ’ newspapers over other outlets – a remarkable finding when taken alongside the fact that those sources ’ overall trust ratings come in at 13 and seven per cent respectively .
The gap between Tory and Labour voters on trusting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a short blip , widening .
This is the context in which Daily Mail headlines such as “ How WAS flagship BBC show infiltrated by the Left ?
” land .
Panorama running a PPE episode featuring a cast of inadequately-labelled Labour activists , or Emily Maitlis taking the pulpit in a manner perceived by Conservatives as an attack , contribute to what seems evidently a growing sense of alienation between the public broadcaster and a significant section of the public .
This will inevitably have political consequences down the line .
Too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ handful of shows that loom large in SW1 – Today , Newsnight , and so on – are only the barest tip of the BBC iceberg .
The Corporation ’ s output is enormous , and spans a vast range of informational , educational , and entertainment television and radio .
Fierce attacks on the ‘ biased BBC ’ must look a little deranged to people whose only experience of it comes from music , drama , or game shows .
But likewise , there could be a danger in BBC executives drawing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the total output of their empire and failing to grasp that deep partisan disaffection with its current affairs output could have serious consequences .
British broadcasting rules are supposed to prevent the development of a US-style media environment , where political and cultural polarisation is fuelled by each side having non-overlapping news ecosystems , and the BBC is surely the lintel of that system .
It will not survive if right-leaning voters and politicians feel un- or under-represented and withdraw their support for it .
There is clearly some recognition that there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pleas from management for journalists to be more judicious on Twitter are any indication .
But that suggests what ’ s needed is a more disciplined internal culture and stricter rules about impartiality .
It ’ s all very well letting Andrew Neil inveigh against ISIS – who supports ISIS ?
– but it does set a precedent which makes it harder to prevent his colleagues indulging in similar tactics on more divisive ground .
Defenders of the Corporation point out that it is a public broadcaster , not a state one , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Government politically to account .
This is correct .
But they must not make the John Bercow mistake of thinking ( or at least , affecting to think ) that antagonism is an inevitable by-product of effective accountability .
Covid-19 has given the BBC a chance to exhibit its undeniable strengths – but these are no excuse for not addressing its weaknesses .

One of the (many) political battles to be put in the freezer by the onset of the Covid-19 crisis was the looming clash over the future of the BBC.
In the immediate aftermath of the election, Government sources were bullish about pushing for aggressive reform – even to an extent which disquieted some Tory MPs.
Any such plans have been overtaken by events. But those amongst the Corporation’s defenders hoping that the pandemic will kill off talk of reform are surely over-optimistic. Even senior sources at the BBC concede that whilst coronavirus has given it an opportunity to showcase its strengths, it hasn’t changed the long-term outlook all that much.
When something resembling normal politics returns, so too will this debate. The shape of it could hinge on whether or not the BBC is viewed as having had a ‘good crisis’.
A couple of recent polls appeared to suggest that it hadn’t – or at least, that its sector hadn’t. First, a poll for the Press Gazette, carried out by PR firm Kekst CNC, reportedly found “a collapse in confidence in the media since the outbreak began”. This seemed to be backed up by another poll for Sky News which found the media “performing disastrously” in terms of public trust.
But not so fast. Will Jennings and Chris Curtis, of YouGov, point out that this represents not so much a collapse in trust for the media as a surge in trust in the Government, as political leaders benefit from a ‘rally-round-the-flag’ effect which lifts their usually abysmal ratings.
There’s more. YouGov’s own polling, which tested respondents opinions on more specific categories of journalist, found ‘BBC journalists’ outperforming their counterparts at ITV and the newspapers. This tallies with findings from the Reuters Institute which found 60 per cent of respondents thought the Corporation was ‘doing a good job’, versus just 37 per cent for ‘the news media’. And Ofcom, in their most recent study of consumption and attitudes towards Covid-19 coverage, find that:
“BBC TV is the most trusted source for information on Covid-19 across the nations (England 78%, Scotland 76%, Wales 78% and Northern Ireland 79%).”
Such figures do two things. First, they vindicate BBC sources who suggest that the Sky polling fails to capture the Corporation’s performance by lumping them in with ‘TV journalists’ as a whole. By the same token, these findings suggest that the BBC’s critics are on to a loser when they argue that the BBC’s coverage is insufficiently different from that of the commercial broadcasters. The public can clearly detect some sort of difference.
But if BBC executives take comfort in these findings, there is another thread running through these which ought to be causing them concern: polarisation.
According to the above-linked YouGov data, Conservative voters are much more likely to trust mid-market and ‘red top’ newspapers over other outlets – a remarkable finding when taken alongside the fact that those sources’ overall trust ratings come in at 13 and seven per cent respectively. The gap between Tory and Labour voters on trusting the BBC is wide and, after a short blip, widening.
This is the context in which Daily Mail headlines such as “How WAS flagship BBC show infiltrated by the Left?” land. Panorama running a PPE episode featuring a cast of inadequately-labelled Labour activists, or Emily Maitlis taking the pulpit in a manner perceived by Conservatives as an attack, contribute to what seems evidently a growing sense of alienation between the public broadcaster and a significant section of the public. This will inevitably have political consequences down the line.
Too often, politicos can forget that the handful of shows that loom large in SW1 – Today, Newsnight, and so on – are only the barest tip of the BBC iceberg. The Corporation’s output is enormous, and spans a vast range of informational, educational, and entertainment television and radio. Fierce attacks on the ‘biased BBC’ must look a little deranged to people whose only experience of it comes from music, drama, or game shows.
But likewise, there could be a danger in BBC executives drawing too much comfort from overall satisfaction with the total output of their empire and failing to grasp that deep partisan disaffection with its current affairs output could have serious consequences.
British broadcasting rules are supposed to prevent the development of a US-style media environment, where political and cultural polarisation is fuelled by each side having non-overlapping news ecosystems, and the BBC is surely the lintel of that system. It will not survive if right-leaning voters and politicians feel un- or under-represented and withdraw their support for it.
There is clearly some recognition that there’s a problem, if the periodic pleas from management for journalists to be more judicious on Twitter are any indication. But that suggests what’s needed is a more disciplined internal culture and stricter rules about impartiality. It’s all very well letting Andrew Neil inveigh against ISIS – who supports ISIS? – but it does set a precedent which makes it harder to prevent his colleagues indulging in similar tactics on more divisive ground.
Defenders of the Corporation point out that it is a public broadcaster, not a state one, and it has a duty to hold the Government politically to account. This is correct. But they must not make the John Bercow mistake of thinking (or at least, affecting to think) that antagonism is an inevitable by-product of effective accountability. Covid-19 has given the BBC a chance to exhibit its undeniable strengths – but these are no excuse for not addressing its weaknesses.


Coronavirus Count

UK cumulative total of lab-confirmed cases : 201,101 ( Up from 194,990 ) .
UK cumulative total of COVID-19 associated UK deaths in hospital : 30,076 ( Up from 29,427 ) .
Latest daily number of lab-confirmed UK cases : 6,111 ( Up from 4,406 ) .
Latest daily number of COVID-19 associated UK deaths in hospital : 649 ( Down from 693 ) .
From the Government ’ s website Number of coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) cases and risk in the UK .
DAILY NUMBER OF COVID-19 ASSOCIATED DEATHS BY DATE REPORTED From the Government ’ s website Number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk in the UK .
Wednesday April 29th note : Dominic Raab told today ’ s Government press conference that “ we are moving to an improved daily reporting system for deaths , so that deaths in all settings are included , wherever the individual has tested positive for COVID-19 , rather than just those in hospitals ” “ The risk to the UK has been raised to high ” – From the Government ’ s website Number of coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) cases and risk in the UK .
GOVERNMENT RULES ON @ @ @ @ @ @ @ See here .
Published on Monday March 23 .
GUIDANCE : FURTHER BUSINESSES AND PREMISES TO CLOSE See here .
Published on Monday March 23 .
HOW EVERYONE CAN HELP STOP THE CORONAVIRUS ( SOCIAL DISTANCING ) See here .
Republished on Monday March 23 .
STAY AT HOME IF YOU THINK YOU HAVE CORONAVIRUS ( SELF-DISTANCING ) See here .
Republished on Monday March 23 .
See here .
Published on Monday March 23 .
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE FOR WORKERS ON WHAT AND HOW THEY CAN CLAIM See here .
Published on Friday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , TENANTS AND LOCAL AUTHORITIES NEW See here .
Published on Saturday March 28 .
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE ON WHAT THE CORONAVIRUS BILL WILL DO See here .
Published on Wednesday March 18 HOW TO AVOID CATCHING OR SPREADING CORONAVIRUS • Wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds .
• Always wash your hands when you get home or into work .
• Use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available .
• Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when you cough or sneeze .
• Put used tissues in the bin straight away and wash your hands afterwards .
• Try to avoid close contact with people who are unwell .
The symptoms of coronavirus are : However , these symptoms do not necessarily mean you have the illness .
The symptoms are similar to other illnesses that are much more common , such as cold and flu .
NHS 111 has an online coronavirus service that can tell you if you need medical help and advise you what to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ You think you might have coronavirus .
• In the last 14 days you ’ ve been to a country or area with a high risk of coronavirus – see the coronavirus advice for travellers .
• You ’ ve been in close contact with someone with coronavirus .
• In Scotland call your GP or NHS 24 on 111 out of hours .
• In Wales call 111 ( if available in your area ) or 0845 46 47 .
• Do not go to a GP surgery , pharmacy or hospital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how it ’ s spread and how to avoid catching it – Government NHS website overview .
• Stay at home advice and how to manage self-isolation .
( All information taken from Government sources .
Updated as of 18.30 on Wednesday May 6th . )

HEADLINE FACTS
Total number of lab-confirmed UK cases: 292,950 (Up from 291,409).
Total number of COVID-19 associated UK deaths: 41,481 (Up from 41,279).
Daily number of lab-confirmed UK cases: 1,541 (Up from 1,266).
Daily number of COVID-19 associated UK deaths: 202 (Up from 151).
England total cases: 156,410 (Up from 156,018 ).
England total deaths: 37,069 (Up from 36,883).
England death rate: 279.4 (Was 278.7).
Scotland total cases: 15,709 (Up from 15,682).
Scotland total deaths: 2,439 (Up from 2,434).
Scotland death rate: 288.9 (Was 288.4).
Wales total cases: 14,658 (Up from 14,581).
Wales total deaths: 1,435 (Up from 1,425).
Wales death rate: 467.0 (Was 464.6)
Northern Ireland total cases: 4,838 (Up from 4,822)
Northern Ireland total deaths: 538 (Up from 537).
Northern Ireland death rate: 257.1 (Was 256.3).
From the Government’s website Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK.
DAILY NUMBER OF COVID-19 ASSOCIATED DEATHS BY DATE REPORTED
DAILY NUMBER OF LAB-CONFIRMED ENGLAND CASES
From the Government’s website Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK.
– – –
RISK
“The risk to the UK has been raised to high” –
From the Government’s website Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK.
– – –
NHS VOLUNTEER RESPONDER FORM
See here
(The Government’s scheme to recruit 250,000 volunteers.)
– – –
OUR PLAN TO REBUILD: THE UK GOVERNMENT’S COVID-19 RECOVERY STRATEGY
See here. New as of Monday May 11.
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE ON THE LOCKDOWN.
See here. New as of Tuesday June 2.
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE ON SHIELDING AND PROTECTING PEOPLE WHO ARE CLINICALLY EXTREMELY VULNERABLE FROM COVID-19
See here. New as of Tuesday June 2.
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE ON SOCIAL DISTANCING
See here. New as of Tuesday June 2.
GOVERNMENT WEBSITE: GENERAL ADVICE
See here.
GOVERNMENT WEBSITE: FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS. WHAT YOU CAN DO AND CAN’T DO
See here.
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE FOR LANDLORDS, TENANTS AND LOCAL AUTHORITIES NEW
See here. Published on Saturday March 28.
– – –
HOW TO AVOID CATCHING OR SPREADING CORONAVIRUS
Wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds .
Always wash your hands when you get home or into work .
Use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available .
Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when you cough or sneeze .
Put used tissues in the bin straight away and wash your hands afterwards .
Try to avoid close contact with people who are unwell.
SYMPTOMS
The symptoms of coronavirus are:
A cough.
A high temperature.
Shortness of breath.
However, these symptoms do not necessarily mean you have the illness.
The symptoms are similar to other illnesses that are much more common, such as cold and flu.
USING 111
NHS 111 has an online coronavirus service that can tell you if you need medical help and advise you what to do.
Use this service if:
You think you might have coronavirus.
In the last 14 days you’ve been to a country or area with a high risk of coronavirus – see the coronavirus advice for travellers.
You’ve been in close contact with someone with coronavirus.
In Scotland call your GP or NHS 24 on 111 out of hours.
In Wales call 111 (if available in your area) or 0845 46 47.
In Northern Ireland call 111.
Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital.
FURTHER LINKS TO GOVERNMENT ADVICE
– – –
(All information taken from Government sources.
Updated as of 19.00 on Friday June 12.)


conservativehome--2020-05-07--Garvan Walshe: Why the Government must convert its business Covid-19 support away from debt

Garvan Walshe is a former national and international security policy adviser to the Conservative Party .
The immediate economic cost of the Covid-19 epidemic and the measures needed to contain it are starting to become clear .
Vast government borrowing .
Huge numbers of people being paid not to work .
The total devastation of the travel industry .
But it is also important to look at the longer-term structural effects of the disease and the measures taken against it .
These will determine the shape of the global economy for the decades to come .
The financial crisis twelve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ultra-cheap money , inflated asset prices , and in the UK , an austerity programme whose effects have been felt by the young immediately , but which have had knock-on effects most visible in continuing weak productivity growth .
The rate of productivity growth is what ’ s known mathematically as second derivative .
It is related not to the level of economic output , nor to the rate it changes ( that is , growth ) , but to rate of change in the rate of change of output .
It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rate at which one person infected by the coronavirus infects another .
It feeds though to growth , and on to the level of output .
The way countries cope with the economic effects of the epidemic will have profound effects on productivity .
Among the most important is not actually the evolution of global supply chains , which will recover from this shock and were reconfiguring anyway , or personal habits ( once the shock has worn off people will want to see friends , go to conferences and explore the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but in the financing of companies .
Just as the wrong post-financial crisis policies saddled some economies with high debt-servicing costs , the wrong Coronavirus support policies will do the same for companies , and smother the creativity on which economic growth depends .
The need to pay it back is supposed to act as a deterrent to borrowing too much , and the need to have it paid back is supposed to prevent reckless lending .
Companies that take on more debt than their revenues allow eventually go bust in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The important thing though is that companies ’ fortunes are supposed to be contingent upon their own actions : the good ones survive and the bad ones don ’ t .
But Covid-19 is a global , external shock from outside the economic system .
Whether your business is affected by it has a lot more to do with what overall sector it is in , than the quality of its operations .
Certain sectors where the UK is particularly strong , including high value person-to-person services like education , media production @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the virus .
The music industry , another area of British strength , has been pummelled .
These do not employ huge numbers of people , but they make a lot of money .
At the other end of the labour market , hotels , pubs and restaurants will be devastated .
Though furlough has taken care of their rent bill , and business rates have been drastically reduced , these businesses have ongoing obligations – mainly rent – they still have to pay .
Yet , the Government ’ s policies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so far chiefly taken the form of providing cash in exchange for creating further ongoing obligations – that is , debt , whether in the form of the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loans , or the Bounceback Loans for micro-businesses .
Debt is suitable for normal times , because it can be used to distinguish between successful companies , and those that need to fail .
But used against an indiscriminate shock like the Coronavirus , it risks becoming a huge weight on the private sector , discouraging innovation and reducing productivity growth even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money a business has available to invest in its own activities .
Repayments must be given priority over research and development , marketing , and even paying staff : it is far easier legally to make someone redundant than default on a debt .
We have a very flexible labour market , which promotes growth and innovation , but debt is an inflexible form of finance that does the reverse .
The usual alternative , equity , won ’ t quite work in this circumstances .
An equity investor takes a share in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to its fate .
The deal is that if the company doesn ’ t make any profits , your share is worth nothing .
The upside , of course , is that the bigger the profits are , the bigger your reward too .
This is perfectly reasonable for a private individual or venture capital fund in normal times , but unsuitable for mass government support for the economy .
Investors take a lot of time to find out about the companies they invest in , not only to work out whether to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a stake they should demand in exchange for their capital .
That is a negotiation only possible under normal market conditions .
The whole point of government support is to prevent companies driven to distress having to sell up because of the pandemic .
And anyway , no government bureaucracy is going to be able to make that kind of decision , especially for hundreds of thousands of SMEs that most need support .
Rather than ordinary debt , which will hang around the necks of businesses for years afterwards , or equity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the circumstances , the Government should create securities with income-contingent repayment .
That way companies would pay them back in proportion to the dividends they paid out , crucially , but only after they had paid their staff and invested in their own growth .
The Government could even package up these future income streams and sell them on to interested investors .
This will allow British companies to specialise in what they do best , finding what has been missed by the thorough and ponderous corporate processes favoured by German-style capitalism , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can catch up .
As the international trade expert David Henig puts it “ the places we do really well are those where the rules aren ’ t clear.
” Government support for the economy during the coronavirus should set us up for recovery by enabling us to keep doing what we ’ re good at .

Garvan Walshe is a former national and international security policy adviser to the Conservative Party.
The immediate economic cost of the Covid-19 epidemic and the measures needed to contain it are starting to become clear.
Vast government borrowing. Huge numbers of people being paid not to work. The total devastation of the travel industry.
But it is also important to look at the longer-term structural effects of the disease and the measures taken against it.
These will determine the shape of the global economy for the decades to come.
The financial crisis twelve years ago has created a world of ultra-cheap money, inflated asset prices, and in the UK, an austerity programme whose effects have been felt by the young immediately, but which have had knock-on effects most visible in continuing weak productivity growth.
The rate of productivity growth is what’s known mathematically as second derivative. It is related not to the level of economic output, nor to the rate it changes (that is, growth), but to rate of change in the rate of change of output.
It is the economic equivalent of R0, the rate at which one person infected by the coronavirus infects another. It feeds though to growth, and on to the level of output.
The way countries cope with the economic effects of the epidemic will have profound effects on productivity.
Among the most important is not actually the evolution of global supply chains, which will recover from this shock and were reconfiguring anyway, or personal habits (once the shock has worn off people will want to see friends, go to conferences and explore the world as much as they ever did), but in the financing of companies.
Just as the wrong post-financial crisis policies saddled some economies with high debt-servicing costs, the wrong Coronavirus support policies will do the same for companies, and smother the creativity on which economic growth depends.
In normal economic circumstances, debt concentrates the mind.
The need to pay it back is supposed to act as a deterrent to borrowing too much, and the need to have it paid back is supposed to prevent reckless lending.
Companies that take on more debt than their revenues allow eventually go bust in the “destruction” part of creative destruction.
The important thing though is that companies’ fortunes are supposed to be contingent upon their own actions: the good ones survive and the bad ones don’t.
But Covid-19 is a global, external shock from outside the economic system. Whether your business is affected by it has a lot more to do with what overall sector it is in, than the quality of its operations.
Certain sectors where the UK is particularly strong, including high value person-to-person services like education, media production and sport have been especially hard hit by the virus.
The music industry, another area of British strength, has been pummelled.
These do not employ huge numbers of people, but they make a lot of money.
At the other end of the labour market, hotels, pubs and restaurants will be devastated.
Though furlough has taken care of their rent bill, and business rates have been drastically reduced, these businesses have ongoing obligations – mainly rent – they still have to pay.
Yet, the Government’s policies to shield businesses from the pandemic have so far chiefly taken the form of providing cash in exchange for creating further ongoing obligations – that is, debt, whether in the form of the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loans, or the Bounceback Loans for micro-businesses.
Debt is suitable for normal times, because it can be used to distinguish between successful companies, and those that need to fail.
But used against an indiscriminate shock like the Coronavirus, it risks becoming a huge weight on the private sector, discouraging innovation and reducing productivity growth even further.
Debt reduces the amount of money a business has available to invest in its own activities.
Repayments must be given priority over research and development, marketing, and even paying staff: it is far easier legally to make someone redundant than default on a debt.
We have a very flexible labour market, which promotes growth and innovation, but debt is an inflexible form of finance that does the reverse.
The usual alternative, equity, won’t quite work in this circumstances.
An equity investor takes a share in the company, and so ties themselves to its fate.
The deal is that if the company doesn’t make any profits, your share is worth nothing. The upside, of course, is that the bigger the profits are, the bigger your reward too.
This is perfectly reasonable for a private individual or venture capital fund in normal times, but unsuitable for mass government support for the economy.
Investors take a lot of time to find out about the companies they invest in, not only to work out whether to invest, but to decide how large a stake they should demand in exchange for their capital.
That is a negotiation only possible under normal market conditions.
The whole point of government support is to prevent companies driven to distress having to sell up because of the pandemic.
And anyway, no government bureaucracy is going to be able to make that kind of decision, especially for hundreds of thousands of SMEs that most need support.
Rather than ordinary debt, which will hang around the necks of businesses for years afterwards, or equity, which is impossible to price under the circumstances, the Government should create securities with income-contingent repayment.
That way companies would pay them back in proportion to the dividends they paid out, crucially, but only after they had paid their staff and invested in their own growth.
The Government could even package up these future income streams and sell them on to interested investors.
This will allow British companies to specialise in what they do best, finding what has been missed by the thorough and ponderous corporate processes favoured by German-style capitalism, and exploiting the opportunities available before they can catch up.
As the international trade expert David Henig puts it “the places we do really well are those where the rules aren’t clear.”
Government support for the economy during the coronavirus should set us up for recovery by enabling us to keep doing what we’re good at.


conservativehome--2020-05-07--Joe Porter: The Big Society is back in Staffordshire

Cllr Joe Porter is the Cabinet Member for Climate Change on Staffordshire Moorlands District Council .
We live in unprecedented times where our lives have been fundamentally changed , our personal freedoms have been restricted , and more people have needed a safety net than in years .
Whilst the national media spread a lot of negative headlines around coronavirus , the situation on the ground is one of positive social action – a surge in community spirit , or a I see it , a resurgence of the ‘ Big Society ’ .
I really believe in what David @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Big Society is about a huge culture change where people , in their everyday lives , in their homes , in their neighbourhoods , in their workplace , don ’ t always turn to officials , local authorities , or central government , for answers to the problems they face , but instead feel both free and powerful enough to help themselves and their own communities.
” Up and down the country , and in my community , we have witnessed the best of Cameron ’ s aspirations for a ‘ Big Society @ @ @ @ @ @ @ selflessly setting up community support groups in their local communities to help elderly and vulnerable people get through this crisis .
The national army of over 750,000 NHS Volunteer Responders and British Red Cross volunteers has also been on the frontline helping those who are in many cases suffering in silence .
In my own area in the Staffordshire Moorlands , it has been amazing to see self-starters establishing these groups from scratch and then spring into action – Surviving Together Leek – to name one great example .
I do feel that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ applying to tackle our shared issues reflects the kind seen at great national crises of the past .
No wonder this situation has been compared to the Second World War and the Blitz .
As Winston Churchill described the war in 1940 , “ This is no war of chieftains or of princes , of dynasties or national ambition ; it is a war of peoples and of causes.
” We are certainly engaged in a war , but this is a war against a silent and invisible killer .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , I have established a project called ‘ Food for Endon ’ to provide bags of fresh and locally grown fruit & veg to elderly and vulnerable people in the local area .
Every Tuesday morning I collect the bags from Haregate Community Centre ’ s Community Hub who kindly provide them through local farmers and producers .
They are sold for £3 each as the Council and various local councillors have helped to subsidise the cost of the bags each week .
The bags contain eight different types of fruit & veg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and I deliver them in person , following social distancing rules .
I also helped establish a network called ‘ Help and Hope ’ to spread positivity and connect people through online friendship .
The network works with the two local churches – Endon St Luke ’ s Church and Endon Methodist Church – to provide volunteers to do weekly shopping , collect pharmacy prescriptions , and chat over the phone to those who are feeling lonely .
We also have a Facebook group called ‘ Surviving COVID19 – Endon ’ , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a few weeks and painted a rainbow of hope across our village .
By pulling together , we have seen what most characterises that wartime spirit and shown the best of being British .
I hope that we continue to see remarkable examples of the heroic efforts to help us defeat this disease .
Together we will win this war .

Cllr Joe Porter is the Cabinet Member for Climate Change on Staffordshire Moorlands District Council.
We live in unprecedented times where our lives have been fundamentally changed, our personal freedoms have been restricted, and more people have needed a safety net than in years. Whilst the national media spread a lot of negative headlines around coronavirus, the situation on the ground is one of positive social action – a surge in community spirit, or a I see it, a resurgence of the ‘Big Society’.
I really believe in what David Cameron said in 2010: “The Big Society is about a huge culture change where people, in their everyday lives, in their homes, in their neighbourhoods, in their workplace, don’t always turn to officials, local authorities, or central government, for answers to the problems they face, but instead feel both free and powerful enough to help themselves and their own communities.”
Up and down the country, and in my community, we have witnessed the best of Cameron’s aspirations for a ‘Big Society’ in action. People have been selflessly setting up community support groups in their local communities to help elderly and vulnerable people get through this crisis. The national army of over 750,000 NHS Volunteer Responders and British Red Cross volunteers has also been on the frontline helping those who are in many cases suffering in silence.
In my own area in the Staffordshire Moorlands, it has been amazing to see self-starters establishing these groups from scratch and then spring into action – Surviving Together Leek – to name one great example. I do feel that the ingenuity and focus that people are applying to tackle our shared issues reflects the kind seen at great national crises of the past. No wonder this situation has been compared to the Second World War and the Blitz.
As Winston Churchill described the war in 1940, “This is no war of chieftains or of princes, of dynasties or national ambition; it is a war of peoples and of causes.” We are certainly engaged in a war, but this is a war against a silent and invisible killer.
That’s why, over the last few weeks, I have established a project called ‘Food for Endon’ to provide bags of fresh and locally grown fruit & veg to elderly and vulnerable people in the local area. Every Tuesday morning I collect the bags from Haregate Community Centre’s Community Hub who kindly provide them through local farmers and producers. They are sold for £3 each as the Council and various local councillors have helped to subsidise the cost of the bags each week. The bags contain eight different types of fruit & veg, depending on what is in season and I deliver them in person, following social distancing rules.
I also helped establish a network called ‘Help and Hope’ to spread positivity and connect people through online friendship. The network works with the two local churches – Endon St Luke’s Church and Endon Methodist Church – to provide volunteers to do weekly shopping, collect pharmacy prescriptions, and chat over the phone to those who are feeling lonely. We also have a Facebook group called ‘Surviving COVID19 – Endon’, which has gained over 300 members in just a few weeks and painted a rainbow of hope across our village.
By pulling together, we have seen what most characterises that wartime spirit and shown the best of being British. I hope that we continue to see remarkable examples of the heroic efforts to help us defeat this disease. Together we will win this war.


conservativehome--2020-05-07--Jonathan Caine: No, the Coronavirus pandemic does not support the case for a united Ireland

Jonathan Caine is a Conservative peer and former special adviser at the Northern Ireland Office .
Over the past couple of years , it has become increasingly fashionable to assume that a united Ireland is now somehow inevitable .
This view extends well beyond the traditional and most devoted champions of Irish unity .
Many media commentators across these islands seem to assume that for those of us who support the Union between Northern Ireland and Great Britain , the game is finally up and that the end of the Union will happen in a matter of a few years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have contributed to this – in my view both erroneous and actually grossly irresponsible – position .
They have included the three years in which Northern Ireland lacked a functioning , power-sharing government , leading some to question whether the so-called ‘ struggle ’ for Irish unity was entering a new , post-1998 Agreement phase .
Then , most obviously , there were the uncertainties presented by Brexit and the Irish border used , at least until the 2019 UK General Election produced such a clear outcome , by republicans to push their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , added to these , has been the Covid-19 pandemic and its effective ‘ weaponising ’ by those who advocate the need for an ‘ all-island ’ approach to health as a proxy towards a united Ireland .
Central to the argument has been the respective responses to the crisis of governments in London , Belfast and Dublin .
A narrative has been allowed to gain hold that while the UK , including Northern Ireland , has been at best slow and at worst incompetent , the reaction in the Republic has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ result , it is argued , there have been far fewer deaths south of the Irish border .
In a Policy Exchange research note , published this week , Graham Gudgin – the think tank ’ s Chief Economic Adviser and former special adviser to Lord Trimble as First Minister of Northern Ireland – successfully debunks a number of myths propagated by those who have sought to politicise a tragic , global , human health pandemic – though not , it should be pointed out , the current Irish Government .
He notes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ argued that the crisis “ dwarfs Brexit in terms of reflecting the danger of partition , the fact that it ’ s not sustainable , and the necessity for us to work as one island ” .
This is not a line , thankfully , that Leo Varadkar has echoed .
The Taoiseach has wisely not sought to claim that policies in Ireland are more effective than those in Northern Ireland .
The argument is not , however , Sinn Fein ’ s alone .
A wider discussion about the effectiveness of UK @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taken place in academia and among public health experts .
One notable intervention came from the retired Queen ’ s University sociologist professor , Mike Tomlinson , in the pages of the Irish Times .
He argued , as the headline put it , that “ Ireland is one island with very different death rates ” – and that southern policy had been much better at keeping people alive during the pandemic .
He provided charts to illustrate that the per capita death rate associate with the coronavirus pandemic is 50 per cent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republic .
This was due , he claimed , to the North ’ s “ lower rates of testing , the lack of contact tracing , and slower application of lockdown measures compared with the Republic ” .
Anyone who has listened to England ’ s Chief Medical Officer , Chris Whitty , in recent weeks will know that international comparisons are inherently very difficult and , as he recently put it in a Downing Street press conference , “ largely a fruitless exercise ” for the time being .
Indeed Dr Gudgin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , North-South comparisons are “ bedevilled by definitional differences ” .
In addition , the UK Statistics Authority has recently urged the Northern Ireland Department of Health to improve the quality and presentation of its published data .
It is no surprise , therefore , that the paper concludes that “ it is not possible to reach any definitive conclusion and certainly not the conclusions drawn by Tomlinson ” .
Even the available evidence “ leads to a conclusion that the death rate in Northern Ireland is almost identical to that in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the health authorities , North and South .
Dr Gudgin also takes aim at those in the media – whose overall performance throughout this pandemic will be a matter of scrutiny for some time to come – who “ uncritically accept superficial or incorrect evidence on the superiority of Irish policy on Covid ” .
In this rush to judgement , crucial factors have been overlooked , including the matter of timing in the arrival of the epidemic .
It also might be more worthwhile comparing the difference in approach and outcome @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries in the Far East and Australasia .
Of course , any comprehensive assessment of the response of governments across the globe to Covid-19 will take time , itself alien to the 24-hour rolling news cycle .
It may be many months before we have a definitive international comparison .
Yet , for me and many others , rather than advancing the case for Irish unity , if anything the current crisis has reinforced once again the strength and security that Northern Ireland gains from being part of the United Kingdom .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coped brilliantly with the demands placed upon it .
It is a view that is also underlined by the scale of the support for businesses and families that derive from being an integral part of one of the leading global economies and something which no other constitutional relationship could hope to match .
Looking ahead , there are wider questions about how the United Kingdom Government makes a stronger case for the benefits of the Union for all the peoples of our country .
These are not , however , arguments for today @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all people to come together , whatever to fight the virus and keep people safe , rather than seeking to exploit it for blatantly political ends .
We need a discussion based on fact , not prejudice , and Dr Gudgin ’ s paper provides exactly that .

Jonathan Caine is a Conservative peer and former special adviser at the Northern Ireland Office.
Over the past couple of years, it has become increasingly fashionable to assume that a united Ireland is now somehow inevitable. This view extends well beyond the traditional and most devoted champions of Irish unity. Many media commentators across these islands seem to assume that for those of us who support the Union between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, the game is finally up and that the end of the Union will happen in a matter of a few years at most.
A number of factors have contributed to this – in my view both erroneous and actually grossly irresponsible – position. They have included the three years in which Northern Ireland lacked a functioning, power-sharing government, leading some to question whether the so-called ‘struggle’ for Irish unity was entering a new, post-1998 Agreement phase.
Then, most obviously, there were the uncertainties presented by Brexit and the Irish border used, at least until the 2019 UK General Election produced such a clear outcome, by republicans to push their campaign for a border poll.
Now, added to these, has been the Covid-19 pandemic and its effective ‘weaponising’ by those who advocate the need for an ‘all-island’ approach to health as a proxy towards a united Ireland. Central to the argument has been the respective responses to the crisis of governments in London, Belfast and Dublin.
A narrative has been allowed to gain hold that while the UK, including Northern Ireland, has been at best slow and at worst incompetent, the reaction in the Republic has been more surefooted and effective. As a result, it is argued, there have been far fewer deaths south of the Irish border.
In a Policy Exchange research note, published this week, Graham Gudgin – the think tank’s Chief Economic Adviser and former special adviser to Lord Trimble as First Minister of Northern Ireland – successfully debunks a number of myths propagated by those who have sought to politicise a tragic, global, human health pandemic – though not, it should be pointed out, the current Irish Government.
He notes that the President of Sinn Fein has argued that the crisis “dwarfs Brexit in terms of reflecting the danger of partition, the fact that it’s not sustainable, and the necessity for us to work as one island”. This is not a line, thankfully, that Leo Varadkar has echoed. The Taoiseach has wisely not sought to claim that policies in Ireland are more effective than those in Northern Ireland.
The argument is not, however, Sinn Fein’s alone. A wider discussion about the effectiveness of UK policy as applied to Northern Ireland has taken place in academia and among public health experts. One notable intervention came from the retired Queen’s University sociologist professor, Mike Tomlinson, in the pages of the Irish Times.
He argued, as the headline put it, that “Ireland is one island with very different death rates” – and that southern policy had been much better at keeping people alive during the pandemic. He provided charts to illustrate that the per capita death rate associate with the coronavirus pandemic is 50 per cent higher in Norther Ireland than in the Republic. This was due, he claimed, to the North’s “lower rates of testing, the lack of contact tracing, and slower application of lockdown measures compared with the Republic”.
Anyone who has listened to England’s Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, in recent weeks will know that international comparisons are inherently very difficult and, as he recently put it in a Downing Street press conference, “largely a fruitless exercise” for the time being.
Indeed Dr Gudgin shows that in Ireland’s case, North-South comparisons are “bedevilled by definitional differences”. In addition, the UK Statistics Authority has recently urged the Northern Ireland Department of Health to improve the quality and presentation of its published data. It is no surprise, therefore, that the paper concludes that “it is not possible to reach any definitive conclusion and certainly not the conclusions drawn by Tomlinson”.
Even the available evidence “leads to a conclusion that the death rate in Northern Ireland is almost identical to that in the Republic”. This judgement is supported by the health authorities, North and South.
Dr Gudgin also takes aim at those in the media – whose overall performance throughout this pandemic will be a matter of scrutiny for some time to come – who “uncritically accept superficial or incorrect evidence on the superiority of Irish policy on Covid”. In this rush to judgement, crucial factors have been overlooked, including the matter of timing in the arrival of the epidemic. It also might be more worthwhile comparing the difference in approach and outcome in the whole of these islands and countries in the Far East and Australasia.
Of course, any comprehensive assessment of the response of governments across the globe to Covid-19 will take time, itself alien to the 24-hour rolling news cycle. It may be many months before we have a definitive international comparison.
Yet, for me and many others, rather than advancing the case for Irish unity, if anything the current crisis has reinforced once again the strength and security that Northern Ireland gains from being part of the United Kingdom.
That includes a National Health Service that has coped brilliantly with the demands placed upon it. It is a view that is also underlined by the scale of the support for businesses and families that derive from being an integral part of one of the leading global economies and something which no other constitutional relationship could hope to match.
Looking ahead, there are wider questions about how the United Kingdom Government makes a stronger case for the benefits of the Union for all the peoples of our country. These are not, however, arguments for today when the overriding need should be for all people to come together, whatever to fight the virus and keep people safe, rather than seeking to exploit it for blatantly political ends. We need a discussion based on fact, not prejudice, and Dr Gudgin’s paper provides exactly that.


conservativehome--2020-05-07--Henry Hill: Will devolution force us to exit lockdown at the speed of the slowest?

At the weekend , the Prime Minister is reportedly going to set out how the country is going to start charting a path out of total lockdown and towards a more sustainable state of affairs .
Or at least , how parts of the country are going to do it .
Because a running theme of the recent crisis , which this column has covered in some detail , has been the need to try and set a coordinated policy across the balkanised landscape of devolution .
In fairness , on the big-picture stuff the various governments have actually done @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tandem .
But as I wrote last week , this may prove harder to maintain in the future .
There is a real danger that trying to bring different parts of the country or economy out of lockdown at different paces will place huge strain on the public goodwill which has sustained it thus far .
Yet such an outcome may be inevitable .
It ’ s not just about maintaining a top-level willingness on the part of politicians to maintain a UK-wide approach .
It ’ s about ensuring that the systems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trace , and track ’ model are in place across the board , despite implementation being the responsibility of different administrations .
For example , the Scottish Government is on the record as having ‘ reservations ’ about the proposed NHS app – and is reportedly considering setting up a separate , Scottish one .
Even if they don ’ t , the fact that the SNP don ’ t intend “ building a whole system around it ” raises the prospect of Scottish results not being caught or handled properly .
Meanwhile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Welsh Government of “ being coy with joining the UK ’ s track and tracing app ” .
Cardiff is also currently performing fewer than ten per cent of the 30,000 tests a day that would be needed for the proposed post-lockdown system – a problem exacerbated by Welsh ministers ’ insistence on ‘ Welsh solutions ’ forcing tests from North Wales to be sent all the way to Cardiff for processing , rather than using nearby English facilities .
Twelve Conservative MPs also signed a letter organised by Dr James Davies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , accusing him of putting vulnerable people at “ unacceptable ongoing risk ” because the Welsh Government ’ s testing regime is less comprehensive than the one put in place by Westminster .
One of them summed up Cardiff Bay ’ s role in the fight against Covid-19 thus : “ an impediment and a nuisance ” .
Nor is this the only area in which the Welsh Parliament – as the Assembly rebranded itself this week – appears unready to implement a strategy which relies on the swift and efficient processing and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two Welsh health boards are have been found to have under-reported Covid-19s deaths .
And earlier this month it turned out that over 13,000 ‘ shielding letters ’ out of about 80,000 had gone to the wrong addresses .
According to one source , this may have been caused in part because NHS records in Wales don ’ t routinely update things like patient addresses from secondary care providers .
Patients resident in Wales but using hospitals in England may also be at risk of falling through the cracks .
Whilst the acute @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problems , many of them predate it , being rooted in the long-term push by the Welsh Government to separate the Welsh NHS , fail to follow Westminster on things like IT updates , and deep resistance on the part of devolved ministers to the keeping of any official records which allow for easy comparison between English and Welsh outcomes .
This tendency towards eventually replicating Westminster policies , but creating confusion and delay for the sake of having something distinctly Welsh , is more than just a local annoyance that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It could create real difficulties if Wales is simply not in a position to start easing lockdown as England .
This could force ministers to choose between abandoning the UK-wide approach or effectively allowing Welsh ministers to impose another extension of lockdown on the rest of the country .
All the more reason that any post-mortem of the national response to the pandemic must include a review of the constitutional barriers to a coordinated national crisis response .
This will inevitably annoy some who like to talk of an ironclad ‘ devolution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approach towards constitutional change must recognise that change cuts both ways .

At the weekend, the Prime Minister is reportedly going to set out how the country is going to start charting a path out of total lockdown and towards a more sustainable state of affairs.
Or at least, how parts of the country are going to do it. Because a running theme of the recent crisis, which this column has covered in some detail, has been the need to try and set a coordinated policy across the balkanised landscape of devolution.
In fairness, on the big-picture stuff the various governments have actually done a fairly good job at moving in tandem. But as I wrote last week, this may prove harder to maintain in the future. There is a real danger that trying to bring different parts of the country or economy out of lockdown at different paces will place huge strain on the public goodwill which has sustained it thus far.
Yet such an outcome may be inevitable. It’s not just about maintaining a top-level willingness on the part of politicians to maintain a UK-wide approach. It’s about ensuring that the systems needed to implement a ‘test, trace, and track’ model are in place across the board, despite implementation being the responsibility of different administrations.
For example, the Scottish Government is on the record as having ‘reservations’ about the proposed NHS app – and is reportedly considering setting up a separate, Scottish one. Even if they don’t, the fact that the SNP don’t intend “building a whole system around it” raises the prospect of Scottish results not being caught or handled properly.
Meanwhile in Wales, the Tories have accused the Welsh Government of “being coy with joining the UK’s track and tracing app”. Cardiff is also currently performing fewer than ten per cent of the 30,000 tests a day that would be needed for the proposed post-lockdown system – a problem exacerbated by Welsh ministers’ insistence on ‘Welsh solutions’ forcing tests from North Wales to be sent all the way to Cardiff for processing, rather than using nearby English facilities.
(Scotland too has struggled on testing: at the start of the week it was performing fewer than half the 10,000-a-day target the SNP adminstration had set itself, and given the Welsh figure the number needed for a proper trace-and-track system is presumably considerably higher still.)
Twelve Conservative MPs also signed a letter organised by Dr James Davies to Mark Drakeford, the First Minister, accusing him of putting vulnerable people at “unacceptable ongoing risk” because the Welsh Government’s testing regime is less comprehensive than the one put in place by Westminster. One of them summed up Cardiff Bay’s role in the fight against Covid-19 thus: “an impediment and a nuisance”. Drakeford’s response to this ‘dirty dozen’ was apparently carried as an exclusive in the Morning Star.
Nor is this the only area in which the Welsh Parliament – as the Assembly rebranded itself this week – appears unready to implement a strategy which relies on the swift and efficient processing and sharing of information. For example, two Welsh health boards are have been found to have under-reported Covid-19s deaths.
And earlier this month it turned out that over 13,000 ‘shielding letters’ out of about 80,000 had gone to the wrong addresses. According to one source, this may have been caused in part because NHS records in Wales don’t routinely update things like patient addresses from secondary care providers. Patients resident in Wales but using hospitals in England may also be at risk of falling through the cracks.
Whilst the acute challenge of the coronavirus has exposed these problems, many of them predate it, being rooted in the long-term push by the Welsh Government to separate the Welsh NHS, fail to follow Westminster on things like IT updates, and deep resistance on the part of devolved ministers to the keeping of any official records which allow for easy comparison between English and Welsh outcomes.
This tendency towards eventually replicating Westminster policies, but creating confusion and delay for the sake of having something distinctly Welsh, is more than just a local annoyance that’s filling the postbags of local Conservative MPs. It could create real difficulties if Wales is simply not in a position to start easing lockdown as England. This could force ministers to choose between abandoning the UK-wide approach or effectively allowing Welsh ministers to impose another extension of lockdown on the rest of the country.
All the more reason that any post-mortem of the national response to the pandemic must include a review of the constitutional barriers to a coordinated national crisis response. This will inevitably annoy some who like to talk of an ironclad ‘devolution settlement’ – but a genuinely open-minded approach towards constitutional change must recognise that change cuts both ways.


conservativehome--2020-05-08--Will Tanner and James O’Shaughnessy: Our fifteen-point plan for a post-pandemic ‘social stimulus’

Will Tanner is Director of Onward .
James O ’ Shaughnessy chairs Onward ’ s ‘ Repairing our Social Fabric ’ programme .
The coronavirus has brought out the best of British spirit – from Colonel Tom ’ s marathon to the mutual aid groups set up in every neighbourhood .
But there are worrying signs of fatigue and frustration among the communities and volunteers on the frontline of the pandemic response .
Charities , like the youth mentoring service Lifeline Projects in Barking and Dagenham , are being forced to choose between helping the growing number of people in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to protect their ability to do so once the crisis is over .
The wave of initial enthusiasm for the NHS volunteer scheme has been allowed to peter out , with many of the 750,000 initial volunteers complaining of delays and an absence of useful tasks .
And figures this week from the Office for National Statistics show that 25 million people have increased levels of anxiety , with over-70s in self-isolation particularly anxious .
Unless we act , these problems will get worse in the coming months of social distancing and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when it is needed most to bring the country back together .
That is why today Onward publishes a fifteen point plan for a ‘ social stimulus ’ to the virus to accompany the healthcare and economic measures already announced .
We know that families are often best placed to support vulnerable loved ones , so as we plan for the end of lockdown we should put family contact and informal caring at the front of the queue for travel and testing .
Meanwhile , parks and libraries should be opened as early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefits of physical exercise , green space and digital access .
To help food banks , debt advice charities , and domestic abuse services deal with rising demand , charities should be able to re-deploy furloughed workers as volunteers and new funding sources , from endowment funds to corporate gift aid , should be encouraged to give them financial security .
It is fast becoming clear that a nationwide mental health package will be necessary to combat the grief and mental illness that sadly accompany this virus .
Ministers should start by granting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apps and rolling out crisis care in communities to reduce reliance on hospitals .
The NHS volunteer army should be turned into a lasting civic institution that links local people to civic action in their community well beyond the crisis , by allowing charities and communities to post useful jobs on the app for local people to volunteer for .
Some communities already have a strong social infrastructure that will help them rebound from the crisis , others don ’ t .
So extra help is needed to build volunteer networks in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ volunteer heroes should be recognised alongside NHS doctors and nurses , charity workers and local philanthropists in a new look honours system , one designed to mark their exceptional contribution during the pandemic , proposed and voted for by members of the public .
During the Second World War , Lord Beaverbrook helped fund the Royal Air Force by asking people to sponsor a Spitfire .
Today ministers should raise their ambition and target £1 billion in donations from individuals , endowments and corporations to fund community recovery , with every £1 gifted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Community Recovery Fund .
The irony of the last six weeks of social distancing and self-isolation is that the pandemic has brought us closer together in spirit .
As the crisis continues , the Government will need to do more to ensure that that spirit is retained , amplified , and used to help every community across the UK bounce back from the coronavirus crisis .

Will Tanner is Director of Onward. James O’Shaughnessy chairs Onward’s ‘Repairing our Social Fabric’ programme.
The coronavirus has brought out the best of British spirit – from Colonel Tom’s marathon to the mutual aid groups set up in every neighbourhood.
But there are worrying signs of fatigue and frustration among the communities and volunteers on the frontline of the pandemic response.
Charities, like the youth mentoring service Lifeline Projects in Barking and Dagenham, are being forced to choose between helping the growing number of people in need now, or laying off staff to protect their ability to do so once the crisis is over. The wave of initial enthusiasm for the NHS volunteer scheme has been allowed to peter out, with many of the 750,000 initial volunteers complaining of delays and an absence of useful tasks.
And figures this week from the Office for National Statistics show that 25 million people have increased levels of anxiety, with over-70s in self-isolation particularly anxious.
Unless we act, these problems will get worse in the coming months of social distancing and the wave of community spirit will be lost when it is needed most to bring the country back together. That is why today Onward publishes a fifteen point plan for a ‘social stimulus’ to the virus to accompany the healthcare and economic measures already announced.
We know that families are often best placed to support vulnerable loved ones, so as we plan for the end of lockdown we should put family contact and informal caring at the front of the queue for travel and testing.
Meanwhile, parks and libraries should be opened as early as possible to give people back the benefits of physical exercise, green space and digital access.
To help food banks, debt advice charities, and domestic abuse services deal with rising demand, charities should be able to re-deploy furloughed workers as volunteers and new funding sources, from endowment funds to corporate gift aid, should be encouraged to give them financial security.
It is fast becoming clear that a nationwide mental health package will be necessary to combat the grief and mental illness that sadly accompany this virus. Ministers should start by granting everyone free access to NHS mental health apps and rolling out crisis care in communities to reduce reliance on hospitals.
The NHS volunteer army should be turned into a lasting civic institution that links local people to civic action in their community well beyond the crisis, by allowing charities and communities to post useful jobs on the app for local people to volunteer for. Some communities already have a strong social infrastructure that will help them rebound from the crisis, others don’t. So extra help is needed to build volunteer networks in the places that need them most.
These volunteer heroes should be recognised alongside NHS doctors and nurses, charity workers and local philanthropists in a new look honours system, one designed to mark their exceptional contribution during the pandemic, proposed and voted for by members of the public.
During the Second World War, Lord Beaverbrook helped fund the Royal Air Force by asking people to sponsor a Spitfire. Today ministers should raise their ambition and target £1 billion in donations from individuals, endowments and corporations to fund community recovery, with every £1 gifted matched by the Treasury and going into a Community Recovery Fund.
The irony of the last six weeks of social distancing and self-isolation is that the pandemic has brought us closer together in spirit. As the crisis continues, the Government will need to do more to ensure that that spirit is retained, amplified, and used to help every community across the UK bounce back from the coronavirus crisis.


conservativehome--2020-05-08--WATCH: The Prime Minister. “We owe everything we most value to the generation that won the Second Wo

WATCH: The Prime Minister. “We owe everything we most value to the generation that won the Second World War.”

75 years on , we are a free people because of everything they did .
Our gratitude will be eternal @ @ @ @

75 years on, we are a free people because of everything they did. Our gratitude will be eternal. #VEDay75 pic.twitter.com/r7ufQKfuYS
— Boris Johnson #StayHomeSaveLives (@BorisJohnson) May 8, 2020


conservativehome--2020-05-08--Calling Conservatives: New public appointments announced. Trustee of the British Council – and more


conservativehome--2020-05-08--Why Johnson feels he can ignore his right-wing critics. And how he is backed by a dog that isn’t bar

Why Johnson feels he can ignore his right-wing critics. And how he is backed by a dog that isn’t barking: Conservative MPs.

The best place to start is with the opinion polls .
Five recent ones record the Conservative rating as follows : 50 per cent , 50 per cent , 51 per cent , 48 per cent and 46 per cent .
These are unprecedented scores for a governing party , in their durability if not their level , and neither Theresa May , David Cameron , John Major nor , yes , even the great election winner herself , Margaret Thatcher , ever had anything like them .
Our columnist James Frayne may be right in thinking that they could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they would survive mid-June , roughly an economic quarter since this great contraction set in .
But for the time being , the Prime Minister has polling capital as well as his emphatic majority in the bank , together with his achievement of Brexit , and his own hospitalisation with Coronavirus , which has done nothing to dent his standing .
That is the vantage from which to view his critics on the left and the right , about whom we shall be brief .
The Left is lining up behind the shutdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ground to a halt .
The taxpayer pays workers not to work .
The state has powers unknown even in wartime .
Laura Pidcock is tweeting # KeepTheLockdown .
No surprise there .
To his critics on the Right , this is a moral affront – with Johnson delivering the socialism from which his election triumph was believed to have rescued us .
Forget the Swedish statistics , Ferguson-critical academics and economic rationalism .
The opposition to Johnson from the Right is driven less by these than by outrage – and frustration that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the sturdy , Kiplingesque , liberty-loving individualists that some believed them to be .
But no wonder that , with poll ratings like the Prime Minister ’ s , some in Downing Street believe that , up to a point , they can ignore not only the first group but also the second .
They are buttressed by the marginality of the Twitter bubble – burst three times in the past five years : by David Cameron ’ s 2015 election win , five years ago yesterday ; by the EU referendum result @ @ @ @ @ @ @ win in December .
Who cares about the Chant of North London ’ s Ever-Circling Skeletal Family ?
And further supported by the decline of Fleet Street .
The Daily Telegraph splashes Keir Starmer on its front page today .
The paper remains the choice of Tory activists and Conservative voters – quite a lot of them , anyway .
Twenty-five years ago , its gesture would have rattled Downing Street to its core .
Not now .
Newspapers are a declining force .
Their sales and advertising revenue are taking a terrible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their columnists lies a primal fear of being squeezed out of business .
Johnson will worry far less about them than about the voters – confident in the calculation that , when push comes to shove , the Tory press will rally round .
And its ageing readers are unlikely to march for a higher R-value any time soon .
So it is that he is set to make his broadcast on Sunday – at exactly the time but not with the content that ConservativeHome expected a month ago .
In a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ extensive that we then expected .
The details are vague ( and in some cases unsettled ) , but the outline is clear : Johnson will offer a menu without prices – that ’ s to say , a lockdown easing programme with no definite timetable .
Why ?
How has institutional caution of the Department of Health won out against the bigger beast of the Treasury ?
The answer lies in the logic of putting the NHS at the core of the Government ’ s strategy .
“ Stay Home .
Protect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its slogan reads .
Whatever it may be changed to next week , it certainly won ’ t read as follows : “ Stay Home .
Protect Care Homes .
Save Lives.
” For the appalling truth is that care homes are many , scattered throughout our economic and social landscape , unmonitored by journalists and , above all , places where the patients are usually expected , sooner or later , to die .
No-one ever made the equivalent of Casualty about a care home .
Hospitals are fewer , easier for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more visitors at once , and above all are expected to return most of their patients to life outside .
If the NHS is our national religion , the hospitals are its cathedrals .
No Government would survive Italian-style pictures , and reports of patients dying in corridors or being turned away from A & E – sacrilege in these holy-of-holies .
Those polls would turn , Conservative MPs would panic , and Johnson would be out on his ear .
There is much more to the Government clinging to the countours of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a real fear that a sudden lockdown end would be followed by rising virus rates , the NHS being unable to cope and the economy freezing anyway – as workers vote with their feet to stay at home .
The Prime Minister would be left with nothing : a sunk NHS , a stalled economy , a bust strategy and , inevitably , talk of a leadership challenge .
Put like that , and one begins to see why Johnson is more concerned about Starmer , trailing him like a submarine ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , by his backbenches than by whatever Fleet Street or , frankly , online operations like this site may be saying .
The dog that isn ’ t barking is Conservative MPs .
Some are very unhappy with lockdown : Andrew Gimson sketched Graham Brady , Steve Baker and Charles Walker earlier this week .
And two ring-rounds by ConHome – see here and here – have found some worried MPs .
But with the polls as they are , Tory MPs aren ’ t feeling constituency pressure .
So nor is the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ John Redwood suggested on this site this week , a Virtual Parliament takes the sting out of scrutiny , opposition and accountability .
If we sound unquestioningly supportive of Johnson ’ s strategy , we don ’ t mean to be .
Like most people , we think the time for shredding the Government ’ s mistakes will be later , now now ; and the venue will be the inevitable inquiry , not a media pack shrieking dodgy statistics .
But for all their unreliability , it can surely be said that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dust eventually clears , as a world leader in tackling the Coronavirus .
If there have been tactical successes ( such as getting a testing industry up and running from scratch ) , there have been strategic failures – not least , settling on the present South Korean-style path very late .
Frankly , we are long past the stage at which the Prime Minister can simply set out his menu without prices and expect orders to be made without question .
Downing Street is brilliantly set up for campaigning but less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with some exceptions – Rishi Sunak , Michael Gove , Matt Hancock , the perservering Dom Raab , and a few others – a first-rate Cabinet .
( Though our panel is right in thinking there is no first-rate replacement team waiting on the backbenches . )
Johnson will need to answer some hard questions next week , and we will try to ask some of them tomorrow .
The polls are the right place to start thinking about the Government ’ s position .
But they are not the right one at @ @ @ @

The best place to start is with the opinion polls. Five recent ones record the Conservative rating as follows: 50 per cent, 50 per cent, 51 per cent, 48 per cent and 46 per cent. These are unprecedented scores for a governing party, in their durability if not their level, and neither Theresa May, David Cameron, John Major nor, yes, even the great election winner herself, Margaret Thatcher, ever had anything like them.
Our columnist James Frayne may be right in thinking that they could collapse overnight. ConservativeHome has wondered whether they would survive mid-June, roughly an economic quarter since this great contraction set in.
But for the time being, the Prime Minister has polling capital as well as his emphatic majority in the bank, together with his achievement of Brexit, and his own hospitalisation with Coronavirus, which has done nothing to dent his standing.
That is the vantage from which to view his critics on the left and the right, about whom we shall be brief.
The Left is lining up behind the shutdown. And no wonder. Capitalism has ground to a halt. The taxpayer pays workers not to work. The state has powers unknown even in wartime. Laura Pidcock is tweeting #KeepTheLockdown. No surprise there.
To his critics on the Right, this is a moral affront – with Johnson delivering the socialism from which his election triumph was believed to have rescued us. Forget the Swedish statistics, Ferguson-critical academics and economic rationalism. The opposition to Johnson from the Right is driven less by these than by outrage – and frustration that the lockdown-backing, NHS-applauding Brits are not the sturdy, Kiplingesque, liberty-loving individualists that some believed them to be.
But no wonder that, with poll ratings like the Prime Minister’s, some in Downing Street believe that, up to a point, they can ignore not only the first group but also the second.
They are buttressed by the marginality of the Twitter bubble – burst three times in the past five years: by David Cameron’s 2015 election win, five years ago yesterday; by the EU referendum result, and by Johnson’s smashing win in December. Who cares about the Chant of North London’s Ever-Circling Skeletal Family?
And further supported by the decline of Fleet Street. The Daily Telegraph splashes Keir Starmer on its front page today. The paper remains the choice of Tory activists and Conservative voters – quite a lot of them, anyway. Twenty-five years ago, its gesture would have rattled Downing Street to its core.
Not now. Newspapers are a declining force. Their sales and advertising revenue are taking a terrible hit: beneath the elegant anti-lockdown opeds of their columnists lies a primal fear of being squeezed out of business. Johnson will worry far less about them than about the voters – confident in the calculation that, when push comes to shove, the Tory press will rally round. And its ageing readers are unlikely to march for a higher R-value any time soon.
So it is that he is set to make his broadcast on Sunday – at exactly the time but not with the content that ConservativeHome expected a month ago. In a nutshell, the easing-off will be less extensive that we then expected. The details are vague (and in some cases unsettled), but the outline is clear: Johnson will offer a menu without prices – that’s to say, a lockdown easing programme with no definite timetable.
Why? How has institutional caution of the Department of Health won out against the bigger beast of the Treasury? The answer lies in the logic of putting the NHS at the core of the Government’s strategy. “Stay Home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives,” its slogan reads. Whatever it may be changed to next week, it certainly won’t read as follows: “Stay Home. Protect Care Homes. Save Lives.”
For the appalling truth is that care homes are many, scattered throughout our economic and social landscape, unmonitored by journalists and, above all, places where the patients are usually expected, sooner or later, to die. No-one ever made the equivalent of Casualty about a care home.
Hospitals are fewer, easier for TV cameras to get to, host more visitors at once, and above all are expected to return most of their patients to life outside. If the NHS is our national religion, the hospitals are its cathedrals. No Government would survive Italian-style pictures, and reports of patients dying in corridors or being turned away from A & E – sacrilege in these holy-of-holies. Those polls would turn, Conservative MPs would panic, and Johnson would be out on his ear.
There is much more to the Government clinging to the countours of the lockdown than that. But there is a real fear that a sudden lockdown end would be followed by rising virus rates, the NHS being unable to cope and the economy freezing anyway – as workers vote with their feet to stay at home. The Prime Minister would be left with nothing: a sunk NHS, a stalled economy, a bust strategy and, inevitably, talk of a leadership challenge.
Put like that, and one begins to see why Johnson is more concerned about Starmer, trailing him like a submarine; by Nicola Sturgeon and, above all, by his backbenches than by whatever Fleet Street or, frankly, online operations like this site may be saying.
The dog that isn’t barking is Conservative MPs. Some are very unhappy with lockdown: Andrew Gimson sketched Graham Brady, Steve Baker and Charles Walker earlier this week. And two ring-rounds by ConHome – see here and here – have found some worried MPs. But with the polls as they are, Tory MPs aren’t feeling constituency pressure. So nor is the Prime Minister, especially since, as John Redwood suggested on this site this week, a Virtual Parliament takes the sting out of scrutiny, opposition and accountability.
If we sound unquestioningly supportive of Johnson’s strategy, we don’t mean to be. Like most people, we think the time for shredding the Government’s mistakes will be later, now now; and the venue will be the inevitable inquiry, not a media pack shrieking dodgy statistics.
But for all their unreliability, it can surely be said that Britain won’t emerge, when the dust eventually clears, as a world leader in tackling the Coronavirus. If there have been tactical successes (such as getting a testing industry up and running from scratch), there have been strategic failures – not least, settling on the present South Korean-style path very late.
Frankly, we are long past the stage at which the Prime Minister can simply set out his menu without prices and expect orders to be made without question. Downing Street is brilliantly set up for campaigning but less well for governing. This is not with some exceptions – Rishi Sunak, Michael Gove, Matt Hancock, the perservering Dom Raab, and a few others – a first-rate Cabinet. (Though our panel is right in thinking there is no first-rate replacement team waiting on the backbenches.)
Johnson will need to answer some hard questions next week, and we will try to ask some of them tomorrow. The polls are the right place to start thinking about the Government’s position. But they are not the right one at which to end.