conservativehome--2020-10-30--Iain Dale: Stop this utter selfishness and pathetic whinging about not having a normal Christmas to

Iain Dale: Stop this utter selfishness and pathetic whinging about not having a normal Christmas to look forward to

Iain Dale presents the evening show on LBC Radio and the For the Many podcast with Jacqui Smith .
Again , it feels like the calm before the Covid storm , doesn ’ t it ?
As more and more swathes of the country go into Tier Three lockdown , it ’ s clear that , by this time next week , most of the north and parts of the Midlands will have joined Merseyside , Greater Manchester , West Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire in that tier .
It ’ s only a matter of time before London does too , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Germany has gone back into a partial lockdown .
Spain has declared a state of emergency .
France has announced a further draconian lockdown – and Coronavirus in Belgium is seemingly out of control .
At some point in the next two or three weeks , the Government will be forced to take a very difficult decision .
No one wants a second national lockdown , but I ’ m afraid it is looking all but inevitable .
We could of course , take a different pah , ignore the scientific consensus and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or let it rip , might be a more accurate way of putting it .
I can not see any responsible Government taking that course of action .
In the end , we are going to have to learn to live with this virus .
But until our test and trace system is worthy of the name , or a vaccine becomes available , it ’ s very difficult to see any degree of normality returning to our lives in the next six months – or maybe for longer .
After the political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meals , and yet again being comprehensively outplayed by a young Premier League footballer , the next challenge for the Government is how to counter the pathetic accusations about the government ‘ cancelling ’ Christmas .
Those who make the accusation claim to be those who don ’ t have a Scooby Doo about what Christmas is all about .
It ’ s not some quasi-materialistic present giving binge ; it is a religious festival that celebrates the birth of Jesus of Nazareth .
There is nothing the Government can do or will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it may mean that family gatherings are more limited in number .
Yes , it may mean that we don ’ t do as much present-buying as we have done in the past .
Yes , it will be different .
But for God ’ s sake , if people don ’ t understand the seriousness of the situation the country may be in by Christmas , then there is nothing anyone can say or do which will shake people out of their utter selfishness and pathetic whinging .
I can say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But somehow , they will need to take on the view that somehow we should all be given a free pass on Christmas Day to let the virus rip .
Arzoo Raja is 13 years old .
She lived in Italy with her Christian parents .
She too was brought up as a Christian .
On October 13 , she was abducted from outside her house .
A few days , later the Italian Police said they had received marriage papers , which stated she was 18 .
Her new “ husband @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who also stated Arzoo had converted to Islam , and her new name was Arzoo Faatima .
Her parents provided her birth certificate to the Italian and Pakistani authorities to prove that she was 13 .
This cut no ice with the Sindh High Court in Karachi , which ruled that she had converted of her own volition , and that she had entered into the marriage of her own free will .
The court even criticised the Pakistani police for “ harassing ” Arzoo after her abduction .
In effect , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and rape .
There have been protests on the streets of Lahore and Karachi .
Countries like the UK can not stand by , and trot out the well-worn narrative that we can ’ t interfere with the judiciary of a sovereign nation .
No , but we can turn off the aid tap .
We can call in the Pakistani High Commissioner for an interview without coffee .
We and other countries have both the power and influence to stop this .
Imran Khan , the Pakistani Prime Minister , has a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how he would have felt if his daughter had been abducted like this when she was 13 .
Just for reporting this news on Twitter I have been accused of being islamophobic and “ not understanding ” the culture .
Utter tosh .
If we are meant to keep quiet about child abduction and forced marriage , we have come to a pretty pass .
I , for one , will continue to speak out , no matter what the backlash .
On Thursday morning we all woke up to yet another terror @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being beheaded and another murdered in the name of “ the religion of peace ” .
Apparently , it is politically incorrect to point out that while the barbarous acts were taking place , the perpetrators were joyfully shouting ‘ Allahu Akbar ’ .
Muslims quite rightly point out that these acts are ‘ not in my name ’ , but the uncomfortable fact is that this is not the view of the terrorists .
In his autobiography , David Cameron says he regrets maintaining that these kind of terror attacks were nothing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that adherents of mainstream Islam have tried to disassociate themselves from the attacks without ever really understanding what has driven the terrorists to assert that they do their dastardly deeds in the name of their religion .
He is right .

Iain Dale presents the evening show on LBC Radio and the For the Many podcast with Jacqui Smith.
Again, it feels like the calm before the Covid storm, doesn’t it?
As more and more swathes of the country go into Tier Three lockdown, it’s clear that, by this time next week, most of the north and parts of the Midlands will have joined Merseyside, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire in that tier. It’s only a matter of time before London does too, I suspect.
This week, even Germany has gone back into a partial lockdown. Spain has declared a state of emergency. France has announced a further draconian lockdown – and Coronavirus in Belgium is seemingly out of control.
At some point in the next two or three weeks, the Government will be forced to take a very difficult decision. No one wants a second national lockdown, but I’m afraid it is looking all but inevitable.
We could of course, take a different pah, ignore the scientific consensus and let the virus take its course – or let it rip, might be a more accurate way of putting it. I cannot see any responsible Government taking that course of action.
In the end, we are going to have to learn to live with this virus. But until our test and trace system is worthy of the name, or a vaccine becomes available, it’s very difficult to see any degree of normality returning to our lives in the next six months – or maybe for longer.
– – – – – – – – – –
After the political debacle about the provision of free school meals, and yet again being comprehensively outplayed by a young Premier League footballer, the next challenge for the Government is how to counter the pathetic accusations about the government ‘cancelling’ Christmas.
Those who make the accusation claim to be those who don’t have a Scooby Doo about what Christmas is all about. It’s not some quasi-materialistic present giving binge; it is a religious festival that celebrates the birth of Jesus of Nazareth.
There is nothing the Government can do or will do that could cancelsthat celebration. Yes, it may mean that family gatherings are more limited in number. Yes, it may mean that we don’t do as much present-buying as we have done in the past. Yes, it will be different.
But for God’s sake, if people don’t understand the seriousness of the situation the country may be in by Christmas, then there is nothing anyone can say or do which will shake people out of their utter selfishness and pathetic whinging.
I can say that. The Government can’t. But somehow, they will need to take on the view that somehow we should all be given a free pass on Christmas Day to let the virus rip.
– – – – – – – – – –
Arzoo Raja is 13 years old. She lived in Italy with her Christian parents. She too was brought up as a Christian. On October 13, she was abducted from outside her house. A few days, later the Italian Police said they had received marriage papers, which stated she was 18.
Her new “husband” was 44 year old Ali Azhar, who also stated Arzoo had converted to Islam, and her new name was Arzoo Faatima.
Her parents provided her birth certificate to the Italian and Pakistani authorities to prove that she was 13. This cut no ice with the Sindh High Court in Karachi, which ruled that she had converted of her own volition, and that she had entered into the marriage of her own free will. The court even criticised the Pakistani police for “harassing” Arzoo after her abduction.
In effect, the court has validated both forced marriage and rape. There have been protests on the streets of Lahore and Karachi.
Countries like the UK cannot stand by, and trot out the well-worn narrative that we can’t interfere with the judiciary of a sovereign nation.
No, but we can turn off the aid tap. We can call in the Pakistani High Commissioner for an interview without coffee. We and other countries have both the power and influence to stop this.
Imran Khan, the Pakistani Prime Minister, has a daughter called Tyrian. He should think how he would have felt if his daughter had been abducted like this when she was 13.
Just for reporting this news on Twitter I have been accused of being islamophobic and “not understanding” the culture. Utter tosh. If we are meant to keep quiet about child abduction and forced marriage, we have come to a pretty pass. I, for one, will continue to speak out, no matter what the backlash.
– – – – – – – – – –
On Thursday morning we all woke up to yet another terror attack in France, with two people being beheaded and another murdered in the name of “the religion of peace”.
Apparently, it is politically incorrect to point out that while the barbarous acts were taking place, the perpetrators were joyfully shouting ‘Allahu Akbar’.
Muslims quite rightly point out that these acts are ‘not in my name’, but the uncomfortable fact is that this is not the view of the terrorists.
In his autobiography, David Cameron says he regrets maintaining that these kind of terror attacks were nothing to do with Islam. He argues that adherents of mainstream Islam have tried to disassociate themselves from the attacks without ever really understanding what has driven the terrorists to assert that they do their dastardly deeds in the name of their religion. He is right.


conservativehome--2020-10-30--Lord Ashcroft: “If Trump loses…he can run again.” My American election focus groups in Pennsylvania

Lord Ashcroft: “If Trump loses…he can run again.” My American election focus groups in Pennsylvania and Arizona.

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is a businessman , philanthropist , author and pollster .
For information on Lord Ashcroft ’ s work , visit www.lordashcroft.com .
The final week of our virtual pre-election focus group tour of America ’ s swing states takes us to Pennsylvania , which swung narrowly to Donald Trump four years ago , having backed Democrats for president in every election since 1988 , and Arizona , which has voted for the Republican in all but one election since 1948 , but is now high on Joe Biden ’ s list of targets .
With only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 Trump supporters torn over how to cast their vote : “ I was a little concerned that Biden ’ s not sure what he ’ s going to do with fossil fuel .
And I ’ m concerned on Trump ’ s side with the healthcare system , but I like the economics , but maybe Biden has a better plan for disability people like me .
So right now I ’ m stuck.
” “ Trump has no response plan for the virus , nothing ’ s going on .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has a plan for this either.
” “ In 2016 I was willing to give him a chance because of what he could do for the economy and the fact that this was something different , he wasn ’ t just another politician .
It ’ s not so easy now.
” “ Trump lies a lot and Biden ’ s kind of not all there.
” One frequent complaint was familiar from the last election four years ago .
The story about Hunter Biden ’ s allegedly incriminating emails continued to register @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ I ’ ve seen a picture of him with a meth pipe in his mouth , but that ’ s about it ” ) .
Those leaning towards Biden were not swayed : Others were more inclined to believe the story was true and important but doubted it would make much difference at this stage in the campaign .
“ I grew up respecting people like Reagan .
Now it ’ s like watching The Jerry Springer Show.
” For 2016 voters who had drifted away from the president , two themes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which he had gone about the job .
“ He thought he knew better than people who spent their entire lives studying this stuff .
And he was wrong about that.
” Some of these likely defectors would have been more willing to overlook these failings , as they did in 2016 , had it not been for Trump ’ s handling of the pandemic .
Some thought Trump ’ s experience of Covid was not what it seemed : “ At the debate , he just faded out at the end like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Not that anyone was particularly enthused by the idea of President Joe Biden , including those who were intending to vote for him .
As we have seen throughout the campaign , many worried that he might not be up to the job , physically and mentally : Some thought this had been in evidence at the final TV debate of the campaign : “ Pelosi has already reminded us of the Twenty Fifth Amendment so she can remove his ass and Kamala will be president.
” There were also continuing concerns that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more radical left-wing elements within the Democratic party : For some , the Democrat nominee simply met what they regarded as the minimum level of decency and dignity necessary in a president , unlike the incumbent : “ Over the last four years I ’ ve come to love him.
” A few previous Trump supporters had fewer qualms about voting for him now than they did in 2016 .
“ At previous elections I ’ ve felt that if my guy doesn ’ t win , things are still going to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of those elections.
” Fear of a radical change of direction under a Democrat administration also played an important part : “ We ’ re going to save the world and give everybody free education and free healthcare and equal income .
It ’ s just irrational.
” “ The anarchy that went on for 100 days on the streets of many cities , the blatant support for organisations that want to basically pillage and burn if they don ’ t get their way .
That ’ s probably the biggest influencer for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Democratic convention and they didn ’ t denounce the violence once , not one single time.
” “ It could be our way of life that ’ s at stake .
It ’ s not just a few Democratic ideas , it ’ s upheaval of the whole system .
The Green New Deal , he wants to get rid of oil .
It doesn ’ t make sense , its just something that sounds good when a bunch of Berkeley students are arguing.
” “ You ’ re either supporting the police @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Matter.
” “ At previous elections I ’ ve felt that if my guy doesn ’ t win , things are still going to be OK .
This isn ’ t one of those elections .
I feel like there ’ s significant change ahead of us if Biden gets in.
” “ It ’ s kind of mind-blowing , that population out there that supports craziness.
” In Pennsylvania , African American voters who had not turned out in 2016 usually said they did not think Hillary Clinton had deserved their vote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expected her to need it : “ If Bernie had been on the ballot I would have voted for Bernie , but I didn ’ t vote for Hillary because I didn ’ t think she was good enough .
If I ’ d known the margin of victory in this state was so small , I definitely would have stopped being so stubborn and just stood in line and voted .
Hindsight is 20/20.
” “ I thought she had it in the bank .
I didn ’ t think he had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Big mistake .
Definitely won ’ t happen this time around.
” “ I guess I overestimated the citizens of the United States of America .
I didn ’ t think with his lack of experience and the fact that he was grossly underqualified and , quite frankly , a criminal , that there was enough of the population that would actually elect him to office.
” “ He says what he ’ s going to do , and all that craziness that he ’ s doing , he said he was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scary thing is there were enough people who were just as crazy that voted for him .
It ’ s kind of mind-blowing , that population out there that supports craziness.
” This was not to say the Democrats had necessarily learned their lessons from four years ago : Nor were they particularly enamoured of Kamala Harris : At the same time , efforts by the Trump administration to reform the criminal justice system and reduce sentences for drug offences were given short shrift : “ Kanye and 50 Cent are just as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these voters make of recent polls that showing Trump could be on course to win a bigger share of the African American vote than he did four years ago ?
How about Kanye West ’ s Republican leanings and the rapper 50 Cent apparently endorsing Trump ?
Latino voters in Arizona who had also sat out 2016 were slightly more complimentary about the Democrats ’ efforts to woo them : “ All of this inclusiveness and unity .
What they ’ re really saying is that nobody else has to change their mindset @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do as president , many of his likely voters said things like “ unite us ” , “ bring us closer together ” or “ bring peace and unity ” .
Others on both sides doubted it would be as straightforward as that : “ It doesn ’ t matter who the president is , you can ’ t tell everyone to get along or make a law that says everybody gets along .
You have to model good behaviour and hope for the best.
” “ I ’ m a middle-aged white @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inclusiveness and unity , and what they ’ re really saying is that nobody else has to change their mindset but me .
We can change the laws , we can change who can go to the bathroom in what room and who can play what sport , but my opinion is not worth anything.
” “ The tolerant left is only tolerant if you agree with their opinion .
If you voted for Trump then you ’ re an enemy.
” “ I hope it ’ s rainbows and birds and everything @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cure racism .
We already know we ’ re surrounded by it .
All these people voted for Trump , and we ’ re living among them.
” “ My dad ’ s first language is Spanish and he ’ s voting for Trump , as he did last time .
And I ’ m like , ‘ he wouldn ’ t even let you in his house !
He doesn ’ t want you !
’ It ’ s delusional to think , we ’ re brown , we ’ re not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of racism , it ’ s not pretty .
And Mexicans don ’ t like Puerto Ricans , Puerto Ricans don ’ t like Cubans , Cubans don ’ t like… And the more divided we are , the harder it is to fight back.
” “ The silver lining is that if Trump loses , he can run again !
” As in previous weeks , voters on both sides expected a very tight race , with both Trump and Biden supporters often pessimistic about their candidate ’ s prospects .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20 January , what will Donald Trump do next ?

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is a businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For information on Lord Ashcroft’s work, visit www.lordashcroft.com.
The final week of our virtual pre-election focus group tour of America’s swing states takes us to Pennsylvania, which swung narrowly to Donald Trump four years ago, having backed Democrats for president in every election since 1988, and Arizona, which has voted for the Republican in all but one election since 1948, but is now high on Joe Biden’s list of targets.
With only days to go, we found some 2016 Trump supporters torn over how to cast their vote:
“I was a little concerned that Biden’s not sure what he’s going to do with fossil fuel. And I’m concerned on Trump’s side with the healthcare system, but I like the economics, but maybe Biden has a better plan for disability people like me. So right now I’m stuck.” “Trump has no response plan for the virus, nothing’s going on. But I don’t think Biden really has a plan for this either.” “In 2016 I was willing to give him a chance because of what he could do for the economy and the fact that this was something different, he wasn’t just another politician. It’s not so easy now.” “Trump lies a lot and Biden’s kind of not all there.”
One frequent complaint was familiar from the last election four years ago.
“I can’t believe in a country of 340 million people we can’t get better candidates. At the start of the election it seemed like this was the year it wasn’t going to be between two old white guys. And here we are at the election and we’re voting for one of two old white guys.”
The story about Hunter Biden’s allegedly incriminating emails continued to register with voters (though not all: “I’ve seen a picture of him with a meth pipe in his mouth, but that’s about it”).
Those leaning towards Biden were not swayed:
“I think it’s made up. I don’t see how people can be so worried about Biden’s son when Trump’s kids are full of nepotism.
Others were more inclined to believe the story was true and important but doubted it would make much difference at this stage in the campaign.
“I think it’s a big deal, but the snowball is rolling a bit too fast to stop it now. About 50 million people have already voted.”
“I grew up respecting people like Reagan. Now it’s like watching The Jerry Springer Show.”
For 2016 voters who had drifted away from the president, two themes recurred. One was the manner in which he had gone about the job.
“I love that it’s America first, that we are starting to become energy independent, that he’s making our country strong again. But he’s making us look weak by not handling this pandemic right, by acting like a child in these debates.” “I was very embarrassed about the debates, especially the first one. I grew up respecting people like Reagan, and my family listened when it was the debates or the state of the union or something the president said. Now it’s like watching The Jerry Springer Show.” “We voted for change. We thought he was going to come in and buck the political system and not play this left versus right game that we’re seeing now.” “It’s absolutely ridiculous. We knew we weren’t getting a professional with him, but he’s taken unprofessionalism to an entirely new level.”
“He thought he knew better than people who spent their entire lives studying this stuff. And he was wrong about that.”
Some of these likely defectors would have been more willing to overlook these failings, as they did in 2016, had it not been for Trump’s handling of the pandemic.
“The first three years, I could easily say the good outweighed the bad because the economy was getting better. It’s the lack of response to this pandemic. It’s him contracting the virus himself and still downplaying it.” “The things he was doing for trade and unemployment were really good. He didn’t do so well on the pandemic and listening to experts. He thought he knew better than people who spent their entire lives studying this stuff. And he was wrong about that.” “He dropped the ball big time, not only playing it down, but making fun and making racial jokes about where it came from. If you lost someone during the pandemic it just show remorse. It’s not appropriate when you’re the leader of the country.”
Some thought Trump’s experience of Covid was not what it seemed:
“I don’t even think he had it.” Why would he fake it? “Attention! Maybe he was like, ‘I’ll just fake it and pretend I got over it in a day or two and look, it’s not that bad.”
“At the debate, he just faded out at the end like he wanted to go to bed.”
Not that anyone was particularly enthused by the idea of President Joe Biden, including those who were intending to vote for him. As we have seen throughout the campaign, many worried that he might not be up to the job, physically and mentally:
“I’ve dealt with a lot of dementia in my family, and you see Biden is getting older, just starting to mentally lose it. How’s he going to be in two years, three years, four years?” “He was saying he wants his vice president to be willing to be president. It’s alarming that he’s basically conceding that if he wins, he’s not going to be in office for long enough to do anything.”
Some thought this had been in evidence at the final TV debate of the campaign:
“If there’s no teleprompter, that poor guy can’t finish that thought.” “At the debate, he just faded out at the end like he wanted to go to bed.”
“Pelosi has already reminded us of the Twenty Fifth Amendment so she can remove his ass and Kamala will be president.”
There were also continuing concerns that Biden would be a vehicle for much more radical left-wing elements within the Democratic party:
“I think Joe wants to be a moderate. But he has to agree with people who are so far left that he says one thing and really means another. That’s what keeps me back from choosing him.” “In the primaries, the people he was saying ‘their ideas are crazy’ he’s now saying ‘oh yeah, I’ll do that’. “He’s the path of least resistance for the far left. He’ll do what they say. Pelosi has already reminded us of the Twenty Fifth Amendment so she can remove his ass and Kamala will be president.”
For some, the Democrat nominee simply met what they regarded as the minimum level of decency and dignity necessary in a president, unlike the incumbent:
“Biden is offering some respect and some dignity to the office, and an office that we can say we want our kids to be president, and Donald Trump is not.” “I don’t like having a racist in office. It doesn’t matter how many good things you’ve done. If you can’t denounce white supremacy and groups like that, I can’t vote for you.” “We’re going to have the same problems, but maybe we’ll handle them a little different. Once he mocked that reporter, it doesn’t matter what you do after that. He did the military, he did the Muslims, I’m a Mexican and he said we were rapists and criminals.”
“Over the last four years I’ve come to love him.”
A few previous Trump supporters had fewer qualms about voting for him now than they did in 2016.
“It’s a slam dunk. I didn’t know a lot about him then, but over the last four years I’ve come to love him.” Most traditional Republican voters we spoke to were sticking with him for policy reasons: “He’s trying to make it easier for business to accomplish what they want to accomplish.” “One of the coolest things is he wants to do school vouchers, so instead of being assigned to a certain public school you get to choose.” “Closing the southern border was huge. We were being overrun, literally. There were caravans.” “His reduction in taxes, restructuring trade deals.” “Look at the peace deals he’s brokered in the Middle East, Israel being recognised. Which gets zero press, by the way, zero.”
“At previous elections I’ve felt that if my guy doesn’t win, things are still going to be OK. This isn’t one of those elections.”
Fear of a radical change of direction under a Democrat administration also played an important part:
“We’re going to save the world and give everybody free education and free healthcare and equal income. It’s just irrational.” “The anarchy that went on for 100 days on the streets of many cities, the blatant support for organisations that want to basically pillage and burn if they don’t get their way. That’s probably the biggest influencer for me.” “I watched the entire Democratic convention and they didn’t denounce the violence once, not one single time.” “It could be our way of life that’s at stake. It’s not just a few Democratic ideas, it’s upheaval of the whole system. The Green New Deal, he wants to get rid of oil. It doesn’t make sense, its just something that sounds good when a bunch of Berkeley students are arguing.” “You’re either supporting the police or you’re supporting Black Lives Matter.” “At previous elections I’ve felt that if my guy doesn’t win, things are still going to be OK. This isn’t one of those elections. I feel like there’s significant change ahead of us if Biden gets in.”
“It’s kind of mind-blowing, that population out there that supports craziness.”
In Pennsylvania, African American voters who had not turned out in 2016 usually said they did not think Hillary Clinton had deserved their vote, or that they had simply not expected her to need it:
“If Bernie had been on the ballot I would have voted for Bernie, but I didn’t vote for Hillary because I didn’t think she was good enough. If I’d known the margin of victory in this state was so small, I definitely would have stopped being so stubborn and just stood in line and voted. Hindsight is 20/20.” “I thought she had it in the bank. I didn’t think he had a snowball’s chance in hell. Big mistake. Definitely won’t happen this time around.” “I guess I overestimated the citizens of the United States of America. I didn’t think with his lack of experience and the fact that he was grossly underqualified and, quite frankly, a criminal, that there was enough of the population that would actually elect him to office.” “He says what he’s going to do, and all that craziness that he’s doing, he said he was going to do it. And the scary thing is there were enough people who were just as crazy that voted for him. It’s kind of mind-blowing, that population out there that supports craziness.”
This was not to say the Democrats had necessarily learned their lessons from four years ago:
“I don’t think they learned much of anything. The only thing they learned is to offer the bare minimum and say ‘we’re better than Trump’, which is obvious, but at the same time, there’s no real solution in place. Once they get to power, they’re going to follow their own agenda. How much of that agenda is really going to be about the people and how much is going to be about their self-centred leaders?”
“She’s a token, in my opinion.”
Nor were they particularly enamoured of Kamala Harris:
“I don’t think she’s black. She’s like a token, in my opinion;” “She’s half Indian. Indian-Jamaican.” “He figured if he can get a black woman behind him, that will bring in the black vote and we’ll also bring in a lot of women.” “She didn’t do anything in California to get black men out of jail.”
At the same time, efforts by the Trump administration to reform the criminal justice system and reduce sentences for drug offences were given short shrift:
“It’s overpopulation. That’s the real reason. It’s not because he wants to, it’s because the prisons are overcrowded and a lot of that is because of drug charges.” “What I’d like to see with the justice system is to treat minorities fairly, and that’s the problem. We’re not treated fairly.”
“Kanye and 50 Cent are just as crazy as he is.”
What did these voters make of recent polls that showing Trump could be on course to win a bigger share of the African American vote than he did four years ago?
“Maybe they’re African Americans with a lot of money, because Trump is about the upper crust and it doesn’t matter if you’re black or white. So I could see African Americans that are well off supporting Trump.” “They probably share his opinions that there should be an upper class and a lower class and they stay in their places.”
How about Kanye West’s Republican leanings and the rapper 50 Cent apparently endorsing Trump?
“They get the tax breaks. They only care about themselves and their pocketbooks.” “They’re just as crazy as he is.”
Latino voters in Arizona who had also sat out 2016 were slightly more complimentary about the Democrats’ efforts to woo them:
“I think they’re not taking the Latino vote and the youth vote for granted like they have in the past.” “I have heard commercials in Spanish that Biden approves and they let another person do the commercial in Spanish. Not like ‘oh, I’m trying my Spanish just for you.’ I like that because it’s not faking it. I like that they’re actually reaching out in our language.”
“All of this inclusiveness and unity. What they’re really saying is that nobody else has to change their mindset but me.”
Asked what Biden would do as president, many of his likely voters said things like “unite us”, “bring us closer together” or “bring peace and unity”.
Others on both sides doubted it would be as straightforward as that:
“It doesn’t matter who the president is, you can’t tell everyone to get along or make a law that says everybody gets along. You have to model good behaviour and hope for the best.” “I’m a middle-aged white conservative Christian male. All of this inclusiveness and unity, and what they’re really saying is that nobody else has to change their mindset but me. We can change the laws, we can change who can go to the bathroom in what room and who can play what sport, but my opinion is not worth anything.” “The tolerant left is only tolerant if you agree with their opinion. If you voted for Trump then you’re an enemy.”
“I hope it’s rainbows and birds and everything, but Biden is not going to cure racism. We already know we’re surrounded by it. All these people voted for Trump, and we’re living among them.” “My dad’s first language is Spanish and he’s voting for Trump, as he did last time. And I’m like, ‘he wouldn’t even let you in his house! He doesn’t want you!’ It’s delusional to think, we’re brown, we’re not racist. There’s a lot of racism, it’s not pretty. And Mexicans don’t like Puerto Ricans, Puerto Ricans don’t like Cubans, Cubans don’t like… And the more divided we are, the harder it is to fight back.”
“The silver lining is that if Trump loses, he can run again!”
As in previous weeks, voters on both sides expected a very tight race, with both Trump and Biden supporters often pessimistic about their candidate’s prospects. If it is Biden who is inaugurated on 20 January, what will Donald Trump do next?
“Who cares? He’ll start another business and run it into the ground and walk away scot free;” “I thought he was already retired and doing nothing;” “He’s going to go to prison;” “He’ll try to make money off doing a TV show because he needs the limelight. He’ll need it more if he loses than he does now.”
For a few, hope sprang eternal:


conservativehome--2020-10-30--Adrian Mason: The Internal Market Bill will help North Wales compete

Adrian Mason is a lawyer and a former Deputy Chair Political of the North Wales Conservatives .
Looking for good news in Wales at the moment has become a difficult task .
We are living under a Covid 19 cloud with an incompetent Welsh Labour Government ( WG ) meting out disproportionate diktats on what seems like a daily basis .
Sadly , these measures are having a devastating effect on the Welsh economy , no more so than in North Wales where the lifeblood of the tourism industry is being drained away by lockdowns and government-sponsored anti-English sentiment .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of North Wales – not enough votes here to cause them any electoral issues .
It must be remembered that the WG is a hard-left regime , the living embodiment of Corbynism .
It believes in state control , with its inevitable over-regulation and high taxes .
It has little interest in our tourist industry , and this has been borne out in successive policy announcements .
Even before Covid 19 they were planning to introduce a tourism tax .
20 years of failure , with a health board in special measures for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system bottom of the pile of UK nations , and a chronic lack of infrastructure expenditure has left our region all the poorer and gives precious little for the WG to shout about .
So , the United Kingdom Internal Market Bill ( IMB ) currently going through Parliament has the potential to redress the balance of years of WG neglect and should be great news for North Wales .
In all the hullabaloo over the Northern Ireland Protocol , the real essence of the IMB is often overlooked .
Part 6 of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ funding that was previously undertaken by the EU .
All those signs you see with the EU flag proudly claiming that a project had been part-funded by Brussels .
Well , that wasn ’ t really EU funding at all ; it was British taxpayers ’ money , top sliced by the EU and handed back to the UK regions .
The IMB will allow Westminster , not Brussels , to carry out that task .
Under S.46 of IMB , a Minister of the Crown has the power to allocate money provided @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in any area of the United Kingdom within a number of specified areas .
These include the promoting of economic development , culture , sport , and provides far reaching financial support in areas like transport , health , education , and housing .
David Jones , a former Secretary of State for Wales , said : “ The Bill is of prime importance to businesses and consumers in Wales , as in every other part of the country .
Indeed , those businesses and consumers would be horrified if they thought that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being a threat to the integrity of the internal market post-transition .
The interests of economic prosperity require that producers in every part of the UK should have unfettered access to consumers in every part of the country .
This Bill ensures that will happen.
” The First Minister of Wales , Mark Drakeford though , has recently stated that the IMB represents a “ smash and grab ” on the devolution settlement and takes back powers that have been devolved to Wales .
This is simply untrue .
Wales didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as they were vested in the EU .
To state that these powers are now being removed from them is disingenuous .
Part 6 of the IMB is just another layer of funding and does not impede upon competencies enjoyed under devolution .
What is undoubtedly annoying Drakeford is that the EU previously handed over this funding directly to the WG whereas under IMB , ministers in Westminster will now decide this based on merit across the whole country .
The WG was quite content to allow an unelected unaccountable EU Commission to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a scalded cat at the thought of Westminster doing the same .
This is a view shared by Paul Davies , the Leader of the Conservatives in the Welsh Parliament who said : The Welsh Government are quick to claim that Part 6 is some sort of power grab and that the UK Government simply wants to neuter devolution – well that couldn ’ t be any further from the truth .
[ Welsh ] Government Ministers were all too happy to receive funding from Brussels and so it begs the question , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more investment and more jobs in Wales at a time of looming economic crisis .
Let me make this clear – Wales will not lose any powers as a result of the Internal Market Bill.
” The fact is that this is excellent news for us here in North Wales .
No longer having to contend with a WG discriminating against us , we will have just as much chance of receiving funding as those in South Wales .
With seven Conservative MPs here in North Wales , the aspirations of the people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remote WG .
It will , in fact restore democracy and not ‘ attack ’ it , as claimed by Welsh counsel general and minister for European transition , Jeremy Miles .
Over time , IMB should level the playing field .
There are plenty of contenders for funding in our region .
We need to develop our transport links , both rail and road , so that we can take full advantage of the Northern Powerhouse .
Better links to Manchester Airport , full fibre broadband , and the development of our @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need additional funding to regenerate the region after years of WG neglect .
Our tourism industry will need major restorative surgery after the disgraceful treatment it has received from Cardiff Bay , not just through the draconian Covid measures but stretching back years .
Schools and hospitals will be able to apply for targeted funding and our service industries will be able to tender for funds free from WG bias .
Sadly , in its own ‘ mission creep ’ the WG ’ s posturing over IMB is telling .
There was not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ EU was administering funding and yet , the thought of an elected Westminster government now doing the same is now seen by them as ‘ undemocratic ’ .
The UK Government needs to stand firm and not concede an inch to a Welsh Labour Government that has such a disgraceful record of incompetence .
First Minister Drakeford is on record as saying that Wales ’ s support for the union is ‘ not unconditional ’ .
Criticism by his government of IMB has all to do with Welsh politics and nothing to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sensible and prudent financial administration of UK taxpayers ’ funds .

Adrian Mason is a lawyer and a former Deputy Chair Political of the North Wales Conservatives.
Looking for good news in Wales at the moment has become a difficult task. We are living under a Covid 19 cloud with an incompetent Welsh Labour Government (WG) meting out disproportionate diktats on what seems like a daily basis. Sadly, these measures are having a devastating effect on the Welsh economy, no more so than in North Wales where the lifeblood of the tourism industry is being drained away by lockdowns and government-sponsored anti-English sentiment.
Welsh Labour has never been a friend of North Wales – not enough votes here to cause them any electoral issues. It must be remembered that the WG is a hard-left regime, the living embodiment of Corbynism. It believes in state control, with its inevitable over-regulation and high taxes. It has little interest in our tourist industry, and this has been borne out in successive policy announcements. Even before Covid 19 they were planning to introduce a tourism tax. 20 years of failure, with a health board in special measures for the last six years, an education system bottom of the pile of UK nations, and a chronic lack of infrastructure expenditure has left our region all the poorer and gives precious little for the WG to shout about.
So, the United Kingdom Internal Market Bill (IMB) currently going through Parliament has the potential to redress the balance of years of WG neglect and should be great news for North Wales.
In all the hullabaloo over the Northern Ireland Protocol, the real essence of the IMB is often overlooked. Part 6 of the Bill allows Westminster to administer internal funding that was previously undertaken by the EU. All those signs you see with the EU flag proudly claiming that a project had been part-funded by Brussels. Well, that wasn’t really EU funding at all; it was British taxpayers’ money, top sliced by the EU and handed back to the UK regions. The IMB will allow Westminster, not Brussels, to carry out that task. Under S.46 of IMB, a Minister of the Crown has the power to allocate money provided by Parliament, to promote economic development in any area of the United Kingdom within a number of specified areas. These include the promoting of economic development, culture, sport, and provides far reaching financial support in areas like transport, health, education, and housing.
David Jones, a former Secretary of State for Wales, said:
“The Bill is of prime importance to businesses and consumers in Wales, as in every other part of the country. Indeed, those businesses and consumers would be horrified if they thought that there was any prospect whatever of there being a threat to the integrity of the internal market post-transition. The interests of economic prosperity require that producers in every part of the UK should have unfettered access to consumers in every part of the country. This Bill ensures that will happen.”
The First Minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford though, has recently stated that the IMB represents a “smash and grab” on the devolution settlement and takes back powers that have been devolved to Wales. This is simply untrue. Wales didn’t have those powers in the first place as they were vested in the EU. To state that these powers are now being removed from them is disingenuous. Part 6 of the IMB is just another layer of funding and does not impede upon competencies enjoyed under devolution.
What is undoubtedly annoying Drakeford is that the EU previously handed over this funding directly to the WG whereas under IMB, ministers in Westminster will now decide this based on merit across the whole country. The WG was quite content to allow an unelected unaccountable EU Commission to hand out funds but now squeals like a scalded cat at the thought of Westminster doing the same.
This is a view shared by Paul Davies, the Leader of the Conservatives in the Welsh Parliament who said:
The Welsh Government are quick to claim that Part 6 is some sort of power grab and that the UK Government simply wants to neuter devolution – well that couldn’t be any further from the truth. [Welsh] Government Ministers were all too happy to receive funding from Brussels and so it begs the question, why on earth would anyone object to more investment and more jobs in Wales at a time of looming economic crisis. Let me make this clear – Wales will not lose any powers as a result of the Internal Market Bill.”
The fact is that this is excellent news for us here in North Wales. No longer having to contend with a WG discriminating against us, we will have just as much chance of receiving funding as those in South Wales. With seven Conservative MPs here in North Wales, the aspirations of the people will be better represented than through a remote WG. It will, in fact restore democracy and not ‘attack’ it, as claimed by Welsh counsel general and minister for European transition, Jeremy Miles. Over time, IMB should level the playing field.
There are plenty of contenders for funding in our region. We need to develop our transport links, both rail and road, so that we can take full advantage of the Northern Powerhouse. Better links to Manchester Airport, full fibre broadband, and the development of our HE/FE sector too. Crucially, we need additional funding to regenerate the region after years of WG neglect. Our tourism industry will need major restorative surgery after the disgraceful treatment it has received from Cardiff Bay, not just through the draconian Covid measures but stretching back years. Schools and hospitals will be able to apply for targeted funding and our service industries will be able to tender for funds free from WG bias.
Sadly, in its own ‘mission creep’ the WG’s posturing over IMB is telling. There was not a hint of criticism when the unelected EU was administering funding and yet, the thought of an elected Westminster government now doing the same is now seen by them as ‘undemocratic’. The UK Government needs to stand firm and not concede an inch to a Welsh Labour Government that has such a disgraceful record of incompetence. First Minister Drakeford is on record as saying that Wales’s support for the union is ‘not unconditional’. Criticism by his government of IMB has all to do with Welsh politics and nothing to do with preserving the Union or crucially, sensible and prudent financial administration of UK taxpayers’ funds.


conservativehome--2020-10-31--Our survey: more than half of Tory members want Trump to win next week

Donald Trump is , to say the very least , a break from convention .
Just as he has attempted @ @ @ @ @ position overseas – and indeed done so by dint merely of being elected – he @ @ @ @ @ sort of Republican to those that typified the post-Reagan era .
Yet for all that @ @ @ @ @ that more than 50 per cent of grassroots Conservatives are hoping for him to come @ @ @ @ @ a second term as President .
Fewer than one in four are holding out for @ @ @ @ @ challenger .
There are several possible explanations for this .
One is the perception that @ @ @ @ @ be better for the United Kingdom during its first few years outside the European Union @ @ @ @ @ be that the Conservatives and Republicans are sister parties and activists , for all Biden @ @ @ @ @ simply remain deeply wary of the Left and the influence that the wider Democratic Party @ @ @ @ @

Donald Trump is, to say the very least, a break from convention. Just as he has attempted to remake America’s position overseas – and indeed done so by dint merely of being elected – he is also a very different sort of Republican to those that typified the post-Reagan era.
Yet for all that, our latest survey shows that more than 50 per cent of grassroots Conservatives are hoping for him to come out on top and win a second term as President. Fewer than one in four are holding out for Joe Biden, the Democratic challenger.
There are several possible explanations for this. One is the perception that a Trump White House will be better for the United Kingdom during its first few years outside the European Union. But it could simply be that the Conservatives and Republicans are sister parties and activists, for all Biden’s personal moderation, simply remain deeply wary of the Left and the influence that the wider Democratic Party could wield through him.


conservativehome--2020-10-31--From Disraeli to Johnson, the Left has never understood the Right, and Fawcett shows us why

Conservatism : The Fight for a Tradition by Edmund Fawcett Edmund Fawcett , “ a left-wing liberal ” ( his term ) , here performs , with grace , acuity and good humour , a signal service for conservatives .
He introduces us to each other .
Reading his book is like being at a vast family party , where as one glances round the marquee one is struck by the affinities between people who have never met , but have much in common .
Here one encounters cousins of whom one may , perhaps , have heard , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In one of the most delightful parts of his book , published as Appendix C , Fawcett in under 40 pages gives us brief lives of over 200 conservative politicians and thinkers , drawn from Britain , France , Germany and the United States , all of whom have attained some degree of eminence since the French Revolution .
This brevity is wonderful .
It is not difficult to find a long book about any of these people .
To find a dozen lines that are worth reading can be almost impossible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impossible subject .
As Fawcett remarks in his preface , “ A chaos of voices has often made it hard to say what , if anything , conservatives stand for.
” He remarks that he is not writing solely or even primarily for the benefit of conservatives : And he adds a pointed question for his companions on the Left : Part of the answer to that question is that the Left often fails to take the Right seriously .
Moral condemnation forestalls understanding .
Another part of the answer is that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is indeed terrified of the damage it can do .
Fawcett begins with two conservative opponents of the French Revolution , Edmund Burke and Joseph de Maistre .
Burke is for British and American conservatives a marvellous source of wisdom , endlessly invigorating and enjoyable .
Few of us have ever felt at ease with Maistre ’ s savagery , but Fawcett insists that although “ Maistre was never going to sit well in conservatism ’ s front parlour ” , he “ belongs in the household as much as Burke ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Friedrich von Gentz ( 1764-1832 ) , a Prussian who studied under Kant , worked for the Austrians and took a retainer from the British , translated Burke ’ s Reflections on the French Revolution into German , “ teasing out Burke ’ s thought in long footnotes that tidied up the argument in rationalist spirit ” .
And Gentz in his essay “ On the Balance of Power ” , published in 1806 , developed the ideas which would guide the post-Napoleonic settlement , upholding peace between nations while retarding not just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at giving us a feeling for his conservatives by quoting remarks which a less worldly Lefty would not find funny , and might therefore be inclined to censor .
So at a dinner at the Congress of Aix in 1818 we get Gentz telling Robert Owen , pioneer of utopian socialism and of the co-operative movement : But Gentz was not some blinkered reactionary , who supposed the ruling classes could restore to themselves the privileges they had enjoyed before 1789 : Here is another part of the explanation for conservative incomprehensibility .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the past than their opponents , and more anxious to understand what will work in the future .
This mixture of mixture of emotion and pragmatism can not be reduced to an ideology – the very thing that leftish commentators consider it a mortal weakness not to possess .
Fawcett ’ s book is brilliantly organised , so one can without difficulty find what conservatives in Britain , France , Germany and the United States were saying and doing in any particular period .
He himself worked for The Economist as its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Berlin and Brussels , and also as its European and literary editor .
As in that magazine , his eye for what is happening overseas is very good , but the texture of British politics is sometimes smoothed away in order to make it fit some editorial analysis .
Fawcett does not get Benjamin Disraeli .
Few historians of ideas do , for by the time the butterfly has been pinned to the page , he is dead .
Millions of voters did get Disraeli , loved his patriotism and felt exhilarated by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Prime Minister who has inspired the creation of a posthumous cult : the Primrose League .
When he comes to Stanley Baldwin , Fawcett attributes his description of the new Conservative MPs elected in 1918 as “ a lot of hard-faced men who look as if they had done very well out of the war ” to Lloyd George , as if only a Liberal could see how repulsive the Tories were .
Baldwin succeeded in part because he well understood how repulsive the Tories might seem , and took enormous pains to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1980 , Fawcett introduces us to “ the hard right ” .
It is an unsatisfactory label , for the word “ hard ” makes it sound more defined , and less yielding , than it really is .
Fawcett knows the term is not satisfactory , for he keeps worrying away at it , and trying to justify it .
In the course of a passage about Donald Trump , he writes : Trump was and is an opportunist , a huckster who has belonged to three different political parties , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since Andrew Jackson have sought , to get himself elected by expressing the anger of poor white voters who loathe the condescension of the East Coast establishment .
When he comes to consider Boris Johnson , Fawcett quotes The Economist ‘ s description of him as “ indifferent to the truth ” , and its advice to voters last December to vote Liberal Democrat – a way , perhaps , of feeling virtuous , but also of opting out of the choice actually facing the country .
Fawcett goes on to attribute a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and a “ disregard for familiar liberal-democratic norms ” .
The author is worried , for as he declares in his preface : The conservative family is in danger of going to the bad .
This is true , but has always been true , and sometimes the warnings have turned out to be exaggerated .
Johnson enjoys teasing liberals , but has lived much among them , craves their approval and himself possesses many liberal characteristics .
Fawcett will know this , for he is the Prime Minister ’ s uncle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mother Charlotte .
The near impossibility of defining Johnson , something of which his critics complain , could even be a sign that he is a conservative .
These quibbles about the last part of the book in no way diminish admiration for it as an astonishingly accomplished survey of the last two centuries of conservative thought .

Conservatism: The Fight for a Tradition by Edmund Fawcett
Edmund Fawcett, “a left-wing liberal” (his term), here performs, with grace, acuity and good humour, a signal service for conservatives. He introduces us to each other.
Reading his book is like being at a vast family party, where as one glances round the marquee one is struck by the affinities between people who have never met, but have much in common.
Here one encounters cousins of whom one may, perhaps, have heard, but about whom one knows next to nothing.
In one of the most delightful parts of his book, published as Appendix C, Fawcett in under 40 pages gives us brief lives of over 200 conservative politicians and thinkers, drawn from Britain, France, Germany and the United States, all of whom have attained some degree of eminence since the French Revolution.
This brevity is wonderful. It is not difficult to find a long book about any of these people. To find a dozen lines that are worth reading can be almost impossible.
And conservatism is itself an almost impossible subject. As Fawcett remarks in his preface, “A chaos of voices has often made it hard to say what, if anything, conservatives stand for.”
He notes a paradox:
“Puzzling as it sounds, conservatives have largely created and learned to dominate a liberal modern world in which they cannot feel at home.”
He remarks that he is not writing solely or even primarily for the benefit of conservatives:
“Readers on the Left will get a view of their opponent’s position, which they are prone, like rash chess players, to ignore.”
And he adds a pointed question for his companions on the Left:
“if we’re so smart, how come we’re not in charge?”
Part of the answer to that question is that the Left often fails to take the Right seriously. Moral condemnation forestalls understanding.
Another part of the answer is that the Right does take the Left seriously, is indeed terrified of the damage it can do. Fawcett begins with two conservative opponents of the French Revolution, Edmund Burke and Joseph de Maistre.
Burke is for British and American conservatives a marvellous source of wisdom, endlessly invigorating and enjoyable. Few of us have ever felt at ease with Maistre’s savagery, but Fawcett insists that although “Maistre was never going to sit well in conservatism’s front parlour”, he “belongs in the household as much as Burke”.
We are happier to be told that Friedrich von Gentz (1764-1832), a Prussian who studied under Kant, worked for the Austrians and took a retainer from the British, translated Burke’s Reflections on the French Revolution into German, “teasing out Burke’s thought in long footnotes that tidied up the argument in rationalist spirit”.
Gentz, Fawcett suggests,
“was an early model of a familiar present-day figure, the clever policy intellectual with top degrees circulating between right-wing think tanks, conservative magazines, and political leaders’ private offices.”
And Gentz in his essay “On the Balance of Power”, published in 1806, developed the ideas which would guide the post-Napoleonic settlement, upholding peace between nations while retarding not just revolution but democracy.
Fawcett is excellent at giving us a feeling for his conservatives by quoting remarks which a less worldly Lefty would not find funny, and might therefore be inclined to censor.
So at a dinner at the Congress of Aix in 1818 we get Gentz telling Robert Owen, pioneer of utopian socialism and of the co-operative movement:
“We do not want the mass to become wealthy and independent of us. How could we govern them if they were?”
But Gentz was not some blinkered reactionary, who supposed the ruling classes could restore to themselves the privileges they had enjoyed before 1789:
“Revolution had to be fought, Gentz insisted, not with nostalgia but with modernity’s own weapons.”
Here is another part of the explanation for conservative incomprehensibility. Intelligent conservatives are at once more attached to the past than their opponents, and more anxious to understand what will work in the future.
This mixture of mixture of emotion and pragmatism cannot be reduced to an ideology – the very thing that leftish commentators consider it a mortal weakness not to possess.
Fawcett’s book is brilliantly organised, so one can without difficulty find what conservatives in Britain, France, Germany and the United States were saying and doing in any particular period.
He himself worked for The Economist as its chief correspondent in Washington, Paris, Berlin and Brussels, and also as its European and literary editor.
As in that magazine, his eye for what is happening overseas is very good, but the texture of British politics is sometimes smoothed away in order to make it fit some editorial analysis.
Fawcett does not get Benjamin Disraeli. Few historians of ideas do, for by the time the butterfly has been pinned to the page, he is dead.
Millions of voters did get Disraeli, loved his patriotism and felt exhilarated by his impudence. He is the only Prime Minister who has inspired the creation of a posthumous cult: the Primrose League.
When he comes to Stanley Baldwin, Fawcett attributes his description of the new Conservative MPs elected in 1918 as “a lot of hard-faced men who look as if they had done very well out of the war” to Lloyd George, as if only a Liberal could see how repulsive the Tories were.
Baldwin succeeded in part because he well understood how repulsive the Tories might seem, and took enormous pains to create a more favourable impression.
In 1980, Fawcett introduces us to “the hard right”. It is an unsatisfactory label, for the word “hard” makes it sound more defined, and less yielding, than it really is.
Fawcett knows the term is not satisfactory, for he keeps worrying away at it, and trying to justify it. In the course of a passage about Donald Trump, he writes:
“The hard right, in sum, was not weird or extreme. It was popular and normal. Indeed, it was alarming because it was popular and normal. “Lest the term ‘hard right’ here sound loaded, and the account of events overdrawn, the passion and dismay with which mainstream conservatives themselves reacted needs recalling. They did not, in detached spirit, dwell confidently on the hard right’s visible weaknesses and incompatibilities. They did not ask if there was here a pantomime villain got up by the liberal left.”
Trump was and is an opportunist, a huckster who has belonged to three different political parties, and who seeks, as American presidential candidates since Andrew Jackson have sought, to get himself elected by expressing the anger of poor white voters who loathe the condescension of the East Coast establishment.
When he comes to consider Boris Johnson, Fawcett quotes The Economist‘s description of him as “indifferent to the truth”, and its advice to voters last December to vote Liberal Democrat – a way, perhaps, of feeling virtuous, but also of opting out of the choice actually facing the country.
Fawcett goes on to attribute a “forceful hard-right style” to Johnson, and a “disregard for familiar liberal-democratic norms”. The author is worried, for as he declares in his preface:
“To survive, let alone flourish, liberal democracy needs the right’s support… When, as now, the right hesitates or denies its support, liberal democracy’s health is at risk.”
The conservative family is in danger of going to the bad. This is true, but has always been true, and sometimes the warnings have turned out to be exaggerated.
Johnson enjoys teasing liberals, but has lived much among them, craves their approval and himself possesses many liberal characteristics.
Fawcett will know this, for he is the Prime Minister’s uncle: a brother of Johnson’s mother Charlotte.
The near impossibility of defining Johnson, something of which his critics complain, could even be a sign that he is a conservative.
These quibbles about the last part of the book in no way diminish admiration for it as an astonishingly accomplished survey of the last two centuries of conservative thought.


conservativehome--2020-10-31--“I am optimistic that this will feel very different and better by the spring.” The Prime Minister’s

“I am optimistic that this will feel very different and better by the spring.” The Prime Minister’s statement. Full text.

“ Thank you very much Patrick , and Chris .
I am afraid that no responsible PM can ignore the message of those figures .
When I told you two weeks ago that we were pursuing a local and a regional approach to tackling this virus , I believed then and I still believe passionately that it was the right thing to do .
Because we know the cost of these restrictions , the damage they do , the impact on jobs , and on livelihoods , and on people ’ s mental health .
No one wants to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We didn ’ t want to be shutting businesses , pubs and restaurants in one part of the country , where incidence was very low , when the vast bulk of infections were taking place elsewhere .
Our hope was that by strong local action , strong local leadership , we could get the rates of infection down where the disease was surging , and address the problem thereby across the whole country .
And I want to thank the millions of people who have been putting up with these restrictions in their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to thank local leaders who have stepped up and local communities .
Because as you can see from some of those charts , the R has been kept lower than it would otherwise have been , and there are signs that your work has been paying off .
And we will continue as far as we possibly can to adopt a pragmatic and local approach in the months ahead .
But as we ’ ve also seen from those charts , we ’ ve got to be humble in the face of nature @ @ @ @ @ @ @ across much of Europe the virus is spreading even faster than the reasonable worst case scenario of our scientific advisers .
Whose models as you ’ ve just seen now suggest that unless we act we could see deaths in this country running at several thousand a day .
A peak of mortality alas far bigger than the one we saw in April .
Even in the South West , where incidence was so low , and still is so low , it is now clear that current projections mean they will run @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of weeks unless we act .
And let me explain why the overrunning of the NHS would be a medical and moral disaster beyond the raw loss of life .
Because the huge exponential growth in the number of patients – by no means all of them elderly , by the way – would mean that doctors and nurses would be forced to choose which patients to treat .
Who would get oxygen and who wouldn ’ t .
Who would live and who would die .
And doctors and nurses would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and non-covid patients .
And the sheer weight of covid demand would mean depriving tens of thousands , if not hundreds of thousands , if not millions , of non-covid patients of the care they need .
It is crucial to grasp this that the general threat to public health comes not from focusing too much on covid , but from not focusing enough , from failing to get it under control .
And if we let the lines on those graphs grow in the way they could and in the way they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the risk is that for the first time in our lives , the NHS will not be there for us and for our families .
And even if I could now double capacity overnight – and obviously I am proud that we have massively increased capacity , we do have the Nightingales , we ’ ve got 13,000 more nurses now than last year , we have many more doctors – but it still would not be enough , because the virus is doubling faster than we could conceivably add capacity .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ action because there is no alternative.From Thursday until the start of December , you must stay at home .
You may only leave home for specific reasons , including : • For work , say if you can not work from home ; • For exercise and recreation outdoors , with your household or on your own with one person from another household ; • For medical reasons , appointments and to escape injury or harm ; • To shop for food and essentials ; • And to provide care for vulnerable people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ m afraid non-essential shops , leisure and entertainment venues will all be closed – though click and collect services can continue and essential shops will remain open , so there is no need to stock up .
Pubs , bars , restaurants must close except for takeaway and delivery services .
Workplaces should stay open where people can ’ t work from home – for example in the construction or manufacturing sectors .
Single adult households can still form exclusive support bubbles with one other household , and children will still be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parents are separated .
If you are clinically vulnerable , or over the age of 60 , you should be especially careful to follow the rules and minimise your contacts with others .
I know how tough shielding was , and we will not ask people to shield again in the same way again .
However we are asking those who are clinically extremely vulnerable to minimise their contact with others , and not to go to work if they are unable to work from home .
I am under no illusions about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which have already had to endure hardship this year .
I am truly , truly sorry for that .
This is why we are also going to extend the furlough system through November .
The furlough scheme was a success in the spring .
It supported people and businesses in a critical time .
We will not end it .
We will extend it until December .
There will be some differences compared to March .
These measures above all will be time-limited , starting next Thursday 5 November .
They will end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will seek to ease restrictions , going back into the tiered system on a local and regional basis according to the latest data and trends .
Christmas is going to be different this year , very different , but it is my sincere hope and belief that by taking tough action now , we can allow families across the country to be together .
My priority , our priority , remains keeping people in education – so childcare , early years settings , schools , colleges and universities will all remain open .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ is the best place for children to be .
We can not let this virus damage our children ’ s futures even more than it has already .
I urge parents to continue taking their children to school and I am extremely grateful to teachers across the country for their dedication in enabling schools to remain open .
And it is vital that we will keep provision for non-Covid healthcare groups going .
So please – this is really important – unless your clinicians tell you otherwise , you should continue to use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ turn up for your appointments and pick up your treatments .
If at all possible , we want you to continue to access these services , now and through the winter .
Indeed it ’ s only by taking this action that we can protect the NHS for you .
On Monday , I will set out our plans to Parliament .
On Wednesday , Parliament will debate and vote on these measures which , if passed , will as I say come into force on Thursday .
We have updated the devolved @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in England and stand ready to work with them on plans for Christmas and beyond .
We should remember we are not alone in what we ’ re going through .
Our friends in Belgium , France and Germany have had to take very similar action .
So as we come together now to fight this second wave , I want to say something about the way ahead .
Because people will reasonably ask when will this all end .
And as I have said before I am optimistic that this will feel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It is not just that we have ever better medicine and therapies , and the realistic hope of a vaccine in the first quarter of next year .
We now have the immediate prospect of using many millions of cheap , reliable and above all rapid turnaround tests .
Tests that you can use yourself to tell whether or not you are infectious and get the result within ten to 15 minutes And we know from trial across the country in schools and hospitals that we can use these tests not just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down the disease .
And so over the next few days and weeks , we plan a steady but massive expansion in the deployment of these quick turnaround tests .
Applying them in an ever-growing number of situations .
From helping women to have their partners with them in labour wards when they ’ re giving birth to testing whole towns and even whole cities .
The army has been brought in to work on the logistics and the programme will begin in a matter of days .
Working with local communities , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ organisations of all kinds to help people discover whether or not they are infectious , and then immediately to get them to self-isolate and to stop the spread And I can tell you tonight that the scientists may be unanimously gloomy about the immediate options .
But they are unanimously optimistic about the medium and the long term future .
We will get through this – but we must act now to contain this autumn surge .
We are not going back to the full-scale lockdown of March and April .
It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Thursday the basic message is the same Stay at home .
Protect the NHS .
And save lives .

“Thank you very much Patrick, and Chris. I am afraid that no responsible PM can ignore the message of those figures.
When I told you two weeks ago that we were pursuing a local and a regional approach to tackling this virus, I believed then and I still believe passionately that it was the right thing to do.
Because we know the cost of these restrictions, the damage they do, the impact on jobs, and on livelihoods, and on people’s mental health.
No one wants to be imposing these kinds of measures anywhere.
We didn’t want to be shutting businesses, pubs and restaurants in one part of the country, where incidence was very low, when the vast bulk of infections were taking place elsewhere.
Our hope was that by strong local action, strong local leadership, we could get the rates of infection down where the disease was surging, and address the problem thereby across the whole country.
And I want to thank the millions of people who have been putting up with these restrictions in their areas for so long. I want to thank local leaders who have stepped up and local communities.
Because as you can see from some of those charts, the R has been kept lower than it would otherwise have been, and there are signs that your work has been paying off.
And we will continue as far as we possibly can to adopt a pragmatic and local approach in the months ahead.
But as we’ve also seen from those charts, we’ve got to be humble in the face of nature.
And in this country alas as across much of Europe the virus is spreading even faster than the reasonable worst case scenario of our scientific advisers.
Whose models as you’ve just seen now suggest that unless we act we could see deaths in this country running at several thousand a day.
A peak of mortality alas far bigger than the one we saw in April.
Even in the South West, where incidence was so low, and still is so low, it is now clear that current projections mean they will run out of hospital capacity in a matter of weeks unless we act.
And let me explain why the overrunning of the NHS would be a medical and moral disaster beyond the raw loss of life.
Because the huge exponential growth in the number of patients – by no means all of them elderly, by the way – would mean that doctors and nurses would be forced to choose which patients to treat.
Who would get oxygen and who wouldn’t.
Who would live and who would die.
And doctors and nurses would be forced to choose between saving covid patients and non-covid patients.
And the sheer weight of covid demand would mean depriving tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of non-covid patients of the care they need.
It is crucial to grasp this that the general threat to public health comes not from focusing too much on covid, but from not focusing enough, from failing to get it under control.
And if we let the lines on those graphs grow in the way they could and in the way they’re projected to grow, then the risk is that for the first time in our lives, the NHS will not be there for us and for our families.
And even if I could now double capacity overnight – and obviously I am proud that we have massively increased capacity, we do have the Nightingales, we’ve got 13,000 more nurses now than last year, we have many more doctors – but it still would not be enough, because the virus is doubling faster than we could conceivably add capacity.
And so now is the time to take action because there is no alternative.From Thursday until the start of December, you must stay at home.
You may only leave home for specific reasons, including:
For education;
For work, say if you cannot work from home;
For exercise and recreation outdoors, with your household or on your own with one person from another household;
For medical reasons, appointments and to escape injury or harm;
To shop for food and essentials;
And to provide care for vulnerable people, or as a volunteer.
I’m afraid non-essential shops, leisure and entertainment venues will all be closed – though click and collect services can continue and essential shops will remain open, so there is no need to stock up.
Pubs, bars, restaurants must close except for takeaway and delivery services.
Workplaces should stay open where people can’t work from home – for example in the construction or manufacturing sectors.
Single adult households can still form exclusive support bubbles with one other household, and children will still be able to move between homes if their parents are separated.
If you are clinically vulnerable, or over the age of 60, you should be especially careful to follow the rules and minimise your contacts with others.
I know how tough shielding was, and we will not ask people to shield again in the same way again. However we are asking those who are clinically extremely vulnerable to minimise their contact with others, and not to go to work if they are unable to work from home.
I am under no illusions about how difficult this will be for businesses which have already had to endure hardship this year. I am truly, truly sorry for that.
This is why we are also going to extend the furlough system through November. The furlough scheme was a success in the spring. It supported people and businesses in a critical time. We will not end it. We will extend it until December.
There will be some differences compared to March.
These measures above all will be time-limited, starting next Thursday 5 November. They will end on Wednesday 2 December, when we will seek to ease restrictions, going back into the tiered system on a local and regional basis according to the latest data and trends.
Christmas is going to be different this year, very different, but it is my sincere hope and belief that by taking tough action now, we can allow families across the country to be together.
My priority, our priority, remains keeping people in education – so childcare, early years settings, schools, colleges and universities will all remain open. Our senior clinicians still advise that school is the best place for children to be.
We cannot let this virus damage our children’s futures even more than it has already. I urge parents to continue taking their children to school and I am extremely grateful to teachers across the country for their dedication in enabling schools to remain open.
And it is vital that we will keep provision for non-Covid healthcare groups going.
So please – this is really important – unless your clinicians tell you otherwise, you should continue to use the NHS, get your scans, turn up for your appointments and pick up your treatments. If at all possible, we want you to continue to access these services, now and through the winter. Indeed it’s only by taking this action that we can protect the NHS for you.
On Monday, I will set out our plans to Parliament.
On Wednesday, Parliament will debate and vote on these measures which, if passed, will as I say come into force on Thursday.
We have updated the devolved administrations on the action we are taking in England and stand ready to work with them on plans for Christmas and beyond.
We should remember we are not alone in what we’re going through. Our friends in Belgium, France and Germany have had to take very similar action.
So as we come together now to fight this second wave, I want to say something about the way ahead.
Because people will reasonably ask when will this all end.
And as I have said before I am optimistic that this will feel very different and better by the spring.
It is not just that we have ever better medicine and therapies, and the realistic hope of a vaccine in the first quarter of next year.
We now have the immediate prospect of using many millions of cheap, reliable and above all rapid turnaround tests.
Tests that you can use yourself to tell whether or not you are infectious and get the result within ten to 15 minutes
And we know from trial across the country in schools and hospitals that we can use these tests not just to locate infectious people but to drive down the disease.
And so over the next few days and weeks, we plan a steady but massive expansion in the deployment of these quick turnaround tests.
Applying them in an ever-growing number of situations.
From helping women to have their partners with them in labour wards when they’re giving birth to testing whole towns and even whole cities.
The army has been brought in to work on the logistics and the programme will begin in a matter of days.
Working with local communities, local government, public health directors and organisations of all kinds to help people discover whether or not they are infectious, and then immediately to get them to self-isolate and to stop the spread
And I can tell you tonight that the scientists may be unanimously gloomy about the immediate options.
But they are unanimously optimistic about the medium and the long term future.
We will get through this – but we must act now to contain this autumn surge.
We are not going back to the full-scale lockdown of March and April.
It is less prohibitive and less restrictive.
But from Thursday the basic message is the same
Stay at home. Protect the NHS. And save lives.


conservativehome--2020-11-01--WATCH: Last-minute decisions are damaging business, says Phillipson

‘ It ’ s incredible that businesses were told with six hours notice , that furlough was going to be @ @ @ @ @ , Labour ’ s shadow chief secretary to the Treasury .

‘It’s incredible that businesses were told with six hours notice, that furlough was going to be extended’ says Bridget Phillipson, Labour’s shadow chief secretary to the Treasury.
Follow #Ridge live: https://t.co/r9xf32oFer pic.twitter.com/lwcSTp8cNG
— Sophy Ridge on Sunday (@RidgeOnSunday) November 1, 2020


conservativehome--2020-11-01--WATCH: Miliband – “For the Biden camp Brexit has reduced the influence of the UK”

If Biden does win the election , do you think he values the ‘ special relationship ’ ?
“ There @ @ @ @ @ my mind that for the Biden camp , Brexit has reduced the influence of the @ @ @ @ @ secretary David Miliband .

If Biden does win the election, do you think he values the ‘special relationship’?
“There’s no question in my mind that for the Biden camp, Brexit has reduced the influence of the UK” says former foreign secretary David Miliband.
Follow #Ridge live: https://t.co/r9xf32oFer pic.twitter.com/IaN7RO8UwS
— Sophy Ridge on Sunday (@RidgeOnSunday) November 1, 2020


conservativehome--2020-11-01--WATCH: Corbyn “should reflect on what he said” – Starmer

# Marr : What does Jeremy Corbyn need to do to re-join the Labour Party ?
Sir Keir Starmer : @ @ @ @ @ to reflect on what he said ” https : //t.co/dzPsCLP3QL pic.twitter.com/yvknqGrpBe

#Marr: What does Jeremy Corbyn need to do to re-join the Labour Party?
Sir Keir Starmer: “I would ask him to reflect on what he said”https://t.co/dzPsCLP3QL pic.twitter.com/yvknqGrpBe
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) November 1, 2020


conservativehome--2020-11-01--WATCH: Gove admits that the new lockdown could be extended beyond 2 December

WATCH : Gove admits that the new lockdown could be extended beyond 2 December

BREAKING: Cabinet minister Michael Gove admits the national #lockdown could be extended beyond 2 December.
Follow #Ridge live: https://t.co/r9xf32oFer pic.twitter.com/dyOmdTZILe
— Sophy Ridge on Sunday (@RidgeOnSunday) November 1, 2020


conservativehome--2020-11-01--The Government must publish regular reports on the cost of the virus, restrictions, and this coming

The Government must publish regular reports on the cost of the virus, restrictions, and this coming lockdown to lives and livelihoods

We in the media tend to focus on the short-term , a trait even more characteristic of social media , and so it proved yesterday as a second lockdown was announced .
Who leaked its details to the Times and Daily Mail yesterday morning ?
How can Downing Street complain if it is using Robert Peston in the same way itself ?
What has happened to Cabinet government – with decision-making power now apparently vested in a new quad of four Ministers : Matt Hancock , Michael Gove , Rishi Sunak and the Prime Minister himself ?
Has not Boris @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system precisely in order to avoid an England-wide lockdown , lost all leadership credibility ?
Hasn ’ t Keir Starmer , who wanted a two-week firebreak instead , been proved right ?
Will not the Prime Minister be torn to pieces in the Commons on Monday by a rampant Labour leader , as Conservative backbenchers seethe and glower ?
These are all good questions – although we suspect that many voters will treat Johnson with more forebearance : after all , the whole of western Europe , and much of the rest of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boat as Britain .
Perhaps this is why the two main parties are neck and neck in Politico ’ s poll of polls – a surprising result given the current political , social and economic carnage .
Nonetheless , the best approach to this morning ’ s grim news is to try and focus on the medium and long terms – hard though this will be for some in our trade and for others .
First things first : this new lockdown is planned to be different from the old one , lasting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and schools staying open .
The Prime Minister clearly intends to make this point to the Commons on Monday , while presumably making the point that Starmer ’ s proposed two-week firebreak was itself inadequate .
The cornerstone of his plan is presumably to get a shutdown over now , so that less restrictive conditions can apply at Christmas .
But if in one sense much has changed , in another we are back where we started .
“ Stay at home .
Protect the NHS .
And save lives , ” Johnson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statement yesterday evening .
So in the spring , we face once again , if the projections on which he is relying are right , the horrific prospect of Lombardy-type scenes as ambulances queue outside A & E wards and patients gasp for air on trolleys .
While , in the meantime , patients who are turned away from hospital or can ’ t get to one die choking in their own homes without palliative care .
Locking down England is more likely to halt this appalling prospect than not doing so ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be weakened by Scotland and Wales going their own ways ) .
Nonetheless , all the national and international evidence to date confirms that lockdowns , by their very nature , postpone but do not prevent rises in cases , hospitalisations and deaths .
For as soon as the deep freeze of a shutdown is lifted , the virus begins to seep back into the population .
This being so , what reason will there be to lift this new lockdown on December 2 , if the menace to the NHS remains ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the schools will remain open , as the National Education Union begins to agitate for them to close ?
Won ’ t Starmer prepare the ground , when he responds to Johnson ’ s statement on Monday , for a further shutdown intensification – suggesting that it may have to be extended after early January to help save the NHS… ?
…While all the while lambasting the Prime Minister for “ complacency ” , “ arrogance ” and “ putting more lives at risk ” ?
Captain Hindsight will present himself as Captain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we appear to be stuck , like our neighbours abroad , in a grisly cycle of winter lockdowns and summer loosenings .
Yes , it may be that a vaccine will turn up soon .
But how much protection will it give , and how widely will it be available ?
After all , Kate Bingham , Chair of the Government ’ s own vaccine taskforce , has said that less than half the adult population will be vaccinated .
Yes , it could be that Johnson ’ s new “ moonshot ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but we really don ’ t know , and not enough may be available quickly enough in any event .
And it is clear that test and trace has not delivered those rates to date .
So if it didn ’ t so before the coming lockdown , how likely is it to do it afterwards ?
Yes , the virus ’ virulence could abate of its own accord , or herd immunity may eventually be attained .
( Scientists now quarrel about whether that is possible . )
But none of this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one count on which we are angry with the Prime Minister is his persistent suggestion that Something Will Turn Up .
He was at it again yesterday : “ the scientists may be unanimously gloomy about the immediate options…but they are unanimously optimistic about the medium and the long term future.
” It is part of Johnson ’ s anti-depressive charm that he likes whistling a happy tune , which leaves him ill-suited to play his present role of Moribund the Burgermeister .
However , we believe that the voters should have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid-19 being here for the duration – and for our lives being , as Rishi Sunak doesn ’ t like to put it , “ on hold ” .
ConservativeHome ’ s members panel presumably agrees .
In our latest monthly survey , only 18 per cent of respondents believe that the Government should “ lift lockdowns and restrictions more slowly and less widely .
46 per cent want them lifted “ more faster and more widely ” .
Meanwhile , 45 per cent want a Swedish-style approach , with fewer lockdowns and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more on voluntary social distancing .
That ’ s much the same result as last month .
Our survey was carried out last week , before yesterday ’ s announcement , and the Prime Minister ’ s pitch woud presumably have swayed some respondents .
None the less , there has been a clear trend in favour of a more voluntarist strategy , mirroring a similar shift among Conservative MPs .
Tomorrow , they are likely to rally round Johnson as Starmer assails him , which is understandable .
But they should be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
ConservativeHome is calling for regular Government assessments of the total impact of lockdowns , restrictions and the virus itself on lives and livelihoods .
Only once we have them will it be possible to trade off the costs , financial and social , of the policy choices that Ministers must now make .
The Chairman of the 1922 Committee and of the Treasury Select Committee have separately pushed for more information to be available – along with others , in Parliament and outside it .
Given the gravity of the national challenge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stretching on into the future , publication can no longer be delayed .
The motion which the Commons votes on this coming Wednesday should be amendable , and an amendment to this effect tabled by backbenchers and voted on by the House , if the Government won ’ t act itself .

We in the media tend to focus on the short-term, a trait even more characteristic of social media, and so it proved yesterday as a second lockdown was announced.
Who leaked its details to the Times and Daily Mail yesterday morning? How can Downing Street complain if it is using Robert Peston in the same way itself?
What has happened to Cabinet government – with decision-making power now apparently vested in a new quad of four Ministers: Matt Hancock, Michael Gove, Rishi Sunak and the Prime Minister himself?
Has not Boris Johnson, who set up the three-tier system precisely in order to avoid an England-wide lockdown, lost all leadership credibility? Hasn’t Keir Starmer, who wanted a two-week firebreak instead, been proved right?
Will not the Prime Minister be torn to pieces in the Commons on Monday by a rampant Labour leader, as Conservative backbenchers seethe and glower?
These are all good questions – although we suspect that many voters will treat Johnson with more forebearance: after all, the whole of western Europe, and much of the rest of the world, is in the same boat as Britain.
Perhaps this is why the two main parties are neck and neck in Politico’s poll of polls – a surprising result given the current political, social and economic carnage.
Nonetheless, the best approach to this morning’s grim news is to try and focus on the medium and long terms – hard though this will be for some in our trade and for others.
First things first: this new lockdown is planned to be different from the old one, lasting for a month only – with workplaces and schools staying open.
The Prime Minister clearly intends to make this point to the Commons on Monday, while presumably making the point that Starmer’s proposed two-week firebreak was itself inadequate.
The cornerstone of his plan is presumably to get a shutdown over now, so that less restrictive conditions can apply at Christmas.
But if in one sense much has changed, in another we are back where we started. “Stay at home. Protect the NHS. And save lives,” Johnson declared in the closing sentence of his statement yesterday evening.
So in the spring, we face once again, if the projections on which he is relying are right, the horrific prospect of Lombardy-type scenes as ambulances queue outside A & E wards and patients gasp for air on trolleys.
While, in the meantime, patients who are turned away from hospital or can’t get to one die choking in their own homes without palliative care.
Locking down England is more likely to halt this appalling prospect than not doing so (though the force of the shutdown will be weakened by Scotland and Wales going their own ways).
Nonetheless, all the national and international evidence to date confirms that lockdowns, by their very nature, postpone but do not prevent rises in cases, hospitalisations and deaths.
For as soon as the deep freeze of a shutdown is lifted, the virus begins to seep back into the population. This being so, what reason will there be to lift this new lockdown on December 2, if the menace to the NHS remains?
Furthermore, how likely is it that the schools will remain open, as the National Education Union begins to agitate for them to close?
Won’t Starmer prepare the ground, when he responds to Johnson’s statement on Monday, for a further shutdown intensification – suggesting that it may have to be extended after early January to help save the NHS…?
…While all the while lambasting the Prime Minister for “complacency”, “arrogance” and “putting more lives at risk”? Captain Hindsight will present himself as Captain Foresight.
The grim fact is that we appear to be stuck, like our neighbours abroad, in a grisly cycle of winter lockdowns and summer loosenings.
Yes, it may be that a vaccine will turn up soon. But how much protection will it give, and how widely will it be available?
After all, Kate Bingham, Chair of the Government’s own vaccine taskforce, has said that less than half the adult population will be vaccinated.
Yes, it could be that Johnson’s new “moonshot” tests will deliver higher self-isolation rates – but we really don’t know, and not enough may be available quickly enough in any event.
And it is clear that test and trace has not delivered those rates to date. So if it didn’t so before the coming lockdown, how likely is it to do it afterwards?
Yes, the virus’ virulence could abate of its own accord, or herd immunity may eventually be attained. (Scientists now quarrel about whether that is possible.)
But none of this may happen – which is why the one count on which we are angry with the Prime Minister is his persistent suggestion that Something Will Turn Up.
He was at it again yesterday: “the scientists may be unanimously gloomy about the immediate options…but they are unanimously optimistic about the medium and the long term future.”
(They have to be: the more the public believes that the seventh cavalry will shortly come galloping over the hill, the less likely it is to give up hope altogether – and flout shutdowns and restrictions en masse.)
It is part of Johnson’s anti-depressive charm that he likes whistling a happy tune, which leaves him ill-suited to play his present role of Moribund the Burgermeister.
However, we believe that the voters should have been prepared long ago for the prospect of Covid-19 being here for the duration – and for our lives being, as Rishi Sunak doesn’t like to put it, “on hold”.
ConservativeHome’s members panel presumably agrees. In our latest monthly survey, only 18 per cent of respondents believe that the Government should “lift lockdowns and restrictions more slowly and less widely.
46 per cent want them lifted “more faster and more widely”. Meanwhile, 45 per cent want a Swedish-style approach, with fewer lockdowns and restrictions or testing and tracking – and more on voluntary social distancing.
That’s much the same result as last month. Our survey was carried out last week, before yesterday’s announcement, and the Prime Minister’s pitch woud presumably have swayed some respondents.
None the less, there has been a clear trend in favour of a more voluntarist strategy, mirroring a similar shift among Conservative MPs.
Tomorrow, they are likely to rally round Johnson as Starmer assails him, which is understandable. But they should be thinking about that medium and long-term too.
ConservativeHome is calling for regular Government assessments of the total impact of lockdowns, restrictions and the virus itself on lives and livelihoods.
Only once we have them will it be possible to trade off the costs, financial and social, of the policy choices that Ministers must now make.
The Chairman of the 1922 Committee and of the Treasury Select Committee have separately pushed for more information to be available – along with others, in Parliament and outside it.
Given the gravity of the national challenge, and the prospect of on-off shutdowns stretching on into the future, publication can no longer be delayed.
The motion which the Commons votes on this coming Wednesday should be amendable, and an amendment to this effect tabled by backbenchers and voted on by the House, if the Government won’t act itself.


conservativehome--2020-11-01--“I am optimistic that this will feel very different and better by the spring.” The Prime Minister’s