conservativehome--2020-04-23--Why it’s too soon to pronounce on the number of people who’ve died in Britain of the Coronavirus

Yesterday a great deal of attention was paid to a Financial Times report estimating that the total number of deaths from COVID-19 is 41,000 ( double the official figure of 17,337 released on Tuesday ) .
Editors reached the number by assessing new data from the Office for National Statistics , including deaths outside of hospitals .
The FT says that in “ the week ending April 10 , deaths in care homes reached 4,927 , almost double the figure of 2,471 a month earlier.
” All of this will undoubtedly spark panic and confusion as to the scale of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is much worse than we are being told .
As of today , the UK cumulative total of COVID-19 associated deaths in hospital is 18,100 – but many will wonder how much bigger it will get with non-hospital additions .
Hence why the FT has done its own calculation .
There ’ s nothing wrong with the maths ( although if every publication starts releasing their own calculations , it could get rather messy ) .
The problem is that data like this is being used to push premature conclusions about the crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fits into wider media narrative – that the UK is the most disastrous country at managing the virus .
As ConservativeHome has recently argued , death rates – as well as other Coronavirus statistics – are much more complex than they are currently being presented , and it is much too soon to make assessments on our situation – especially in a global context .
Indeed , differences between countries are not being taken into account in analyses .
The UK , for instance , has a higher population density than Germany , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where a higher percentage live in rural areas ) .
London is also the largest city in Europe , with almost nine million people , so this is part of why it will look worse .
There are other big variations , such as the average age in different countries – the older the population , the more deaths .
When we hopefully get on top of the Coronavirus crisis , what will help analysts compare death rates is “ all cause mortality ” – in other words , “ all of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regardless of the cause ” over a period of time – which Chris Whitty brought up in April 16 ’ s daily briefing .
The reason this metric will become important is that it is recorded the same way across countries .
The issue with current statistics on the Coronavirus is that they have been tracked differently across regions , so it ’ s difficult to judge them against each other .
Germany , for instance , follows the Robert Koch Institute ’ s guidance , which instructs medical officials to record : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the disease ( “ died from ” ) and people with previous illnesses who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and for whom it can not be conclusively proven what the cause of death was ( “ died with ” ) ” .
Other countries , conversely , may simply record COVID-19 as cause of death if the patient has it – never mind underlying causes .
Therefore , the only way we can remove these differences is to take the total amount of deaths at the end for each country .
The next complicated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these deaths was caused by the Coronavirus .
This is yet another headache for analysts , not least because a spike in deaths can be caused by other factors than the disease .
Whitty also touched on this on April 16th , saying that : “ people die for many reasons in epidemics .
They include the direct cause of death , but they can also include people who died , for example , if they stayed at home because they were worried that going into hospital was dangerous for them ” .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ hard is variations in testing regimes .
Some countries , such as South Korea and Germany , have much better testing programmes than others .
So they can better assess what percentage of the population died from the Coronavirus – then use this when looking at all-cause mortality .
The more data , the more accurate readings on case-fatality ratio and so forth .
In essence , understanding deaths rates is an extremely difficult process .
Statisticians have to standardise data between different countries , and that involves untangling lots of different variables @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to when the pandemic hit .
The effectiveness of Government strategies , such as lockdown , can only be looked at when these variables are “ controlled ” for – in other words , taken out of the equation .
It may even be the case that one would need another UK ( what scientists would call a “ control group ” ) to ever properly assess the impact of our interventions .
In the meantime , we must not jump to conclusions as quickly as much of the media has…

Yesterday a great deal of attention was paid to a Financial Times report estimating that the total number of deaths from COVID-19 is 41,000 (double the official figure of 17,337 released on Tuesday).
Editors reached the number by assessing new data from the Office for National Statistics, including deaths outside of hospitals.
The FT says that in “the week ending April 10, deaths in care homes reached 4,927, almost double the figure of 2,471 a month earlier.”
All of this will undoubtedly spark panic and confusion as to the scale of the Coronavirus pandemic – and whether it is much worse than we are being told.
As of today, the UK cumulative total of COVID-19 associated deaths in hospital is 18,100 – but many will wonder how much bigger it will get with non-hospital additions. Hence why the FT has done its own calculation.
There’s nothing wrong with the maths (although if every publication starts releasing their own calculations, it could get rather messy). The problem is that data like this is being used to push premature conclusions about the crisis, which has barely begun. It fits into wider media narrative – that the UK is the most disastrous country at managing the virus.
As ConservativeHome has recently argued, death rates – as well as other Coronavirus statistics – are much more complex than they are currently being presented, and it is much too soon to make assessments on our situation – especially in a global context.
Indeed, differences between countries are not being taken into account in analyses. The UK, for instance, has a higher population density than Germany, France and the Republic of Ireland (where a higher percentage live in rural areas).
London is also the largest city in Europe, with almost nine million people, so this is part of why it will look worse. There are other big variations, such as the average age in different countries – the older the population, the more deaths.
When we hopefully get on top of the Coronavirus crisis, what will help analysts compare death rates is “all cause mortality” – in other words, “all of the deaths that occur in a population, regardless of the cause” over a period of time – which Chris Whitty brought up in April 16’s daily briefing.
The reason this metric will become important is that it is recorded the same way across countries. The issue with current statistics on the Coronavirus is that they have been tracked differently across regions, so it’s difficult to judge them against each other.
Germany, for instance, follows the Robert Koch Institute’s guidance, which instructs medical officials to record: “Both people who died directly from the disease (“died from”) and people with previous illnesses who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and for whom it cannot be conclusively proven what the cause of death was (“died with”)”.
Other countries, conversely, may simply record COVID-19 as cause of death if the patient has it – never mind underlying causes. Therefore, the only way we can remove these differences is to take the total amount of deaths at the end for each country.
The next complicated part will involve determining what percentage of these deaths was caused by the Coronavirus. This is yet another headache for analysts, not least because a spike in deaths can be caused by other factors than the disease.
Whitty also touched on this on April 16th, saying that: “people die for many reasons in epidemics. They include the direct cause of death, but they can also include people who died, for example, if they stayed at home because they were worried that going into hospital was dangerous for them”.
Another aspect that makes analysing death rates hard is variations in testing regimes.
Some countries, such as South Korea and Germany, have much better testing programmes than others. So they can better assess what percentage of the population died from the Coronavirus – then use this when looking at all-cause mortality. The more data, the more accurate readings on case-fatality ratio and so forth.
In essence, understanding deaths rates is an extremely difficult process. Statisticians have to standardise data between different countries, and that involves untangling lots of different variables, from demographics to environmental factors, to when the pandemic hit.
The effectiveness of Government strategies, such as lockdown, can only be looked at when these variables are “controlled” for – in other words, taken out of the equation.
It may even be the case that one would need another UK (what scientists would call a “control group”) to ever properly assess the impact of our interventions.
In the meantime, we must not jump to conclusions as quickly as much of the media has…


conservativehome--2020-04-23--Andrew Gimson’s Commons sketch: Poor taste as the Business Committee tries to scrutinise Sharma

About a dozen captives were paraded this morning on BBC Parliament .
They were being held under house arrest so they could participate in an inquiry by the Business , Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee into the impact of the Coronavirus on business .
One ’ s first thought has to be for the impact of the virus on the captives themselves .
The conditions in which they are being held , shut in a series of what look like a mixture of attics , basements and sculleries , amount to cruel and unnatural treatment .
Not one of them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was allowed access to fresh air or sunlight .
It seems likely that before the hearing was broadcast , they were warned that as they sat in front of their computer screens , nothing must be visible behind them which would lead any member of the public who accidentally tuned in to the programme to suppose that the political class enjoys privileges denied to the rest of us .
Most of the rooms were as bare and cheerless as a prison cell , but in some , it was impossible to ignore the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sharma , the Secretary of State for Business , Energy and Industrial Strategy , was confined , so far as one could tell , within his actual department .
For surely no one in their right mind would choose to adorn the wall of a private house with the crude daub of a row of ten identical dark blue paddles , or perhaps mortar rockets , which could be seen to the left of his head .
Except they looked too fluffy to be either paddles or rockets .
This column ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pass by , and on being asked what in her opinion the picture to the left of Sharma was actually of , replied in a patronising tone : “ It looks like a piece of modern art – it doesn ’ t necessarily have to be of anything.
” Pat McFadden ( Lab , Wolverhampton South East ) appeared on the screen .
He was confined to an attic , which had a skylight through which one could detect , somewhat indistinctly , a distant , tantalising prospect of trees which were actually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out that while , according to Sharma , the British government ’ s business loan scheme has so far been taken up by 16,600 businesses , in Switzerland , 98,000 businesses have been helped , for the Swiss only have to fill in a one-page online form , and the funds arrive the next day .
Some of us departed , in our mind ’ s eye , to a land of alpine meadows , glistening peaks and instantaneous government loans .
That option was not open to Sharma , who replied : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support.
” Peter Kyle ( Lab , Hove ) , speaking from a room of indeterminate use whose barrenness was accentuated by a vase of pink roses , put it to him : “ You ’ re erring towards defending the system you have , rather than looking for other businesses that might need help.
” But Sharma told him : “ We have to look at the totality of what we ’ re offering.
” Mark Jenkinson ( Cons , Workington ) attempted to address us from an empty room .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be able to hear you , can you increase your volume , ” said Mark Pawsey ( Con , Rugby ) , who was chairing the committee .
Later we returned to Jenkinson , who had increased his volume so much his voice now echoed in a disconcerting way .
Sam Beckett , Acting Permanent Secretary at BEIS , was granted a brief appearance .
She had a picture behind her of an angry cow , or possibly an angry bull .
It was the most interesting picture we had seen all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feel any better .
Pawsey called “ Nusrat Ghani ( Con , Wealden ) who we can ’ t see but is available on audio ” .
“ Hopefully you still remember what I look like , ” a voice said , and paused , but no one said anything .
Sharma , however , who baffled inquiry in part by his friendly manner , said a few moments later : “ I very much remember what you look like and look forward to seeing you again.
” We were granted a glimpse @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the screen divided into about a dozen pictures .
A number of them were leaning on their hands in attitudes of extreme boredom .
For that is the other way in which Sharma baffled inquiry .
He was relentlessly dull .
At this point I received a message that my neighbours had kindly left a bag of artichokes on my doorstep .
When I returned to my screen , having put the artichokes on the kitchen table , I pressed the wrong button , and found myself looking , amazingly , at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sir Thomas Lawrence of the Duke of Wellington , the great soldier who also served as Prime Minister , wearing “ civilian dress without any appendages of success or power ” , as the ninth Duke said with approval , reminding us that when on campaign , the first Duke “ did actually wear civilian dress ” .
So a fitting modesty of demeanour is by no means a new feature of our ruling class .
But if you have time to watch only one of these broadcasts , make it the one @ @ @ @

About a dozen captives were paraded this morning on BBC Parliament. They were being held under house arrest so they could participate in an inquiry by the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee into the impact of the Coronavirus on business.
One’s first thought has to be for the impact of the virus on the captives themselves. The conditions in which they are being held, shut in a series of what look like a mixture of attics, basements and sculleries, amount to cruel and unnatural treatment.
Not one of them, on this glorious Spring day, was allowed access to fresh air or sunlight. It seems likely that before the hearing was broadcast, they were warned that as they sat in front of their computer screens, nothing must be visible behind them which would lead any member of the public who accidentally tuned in to the programme to suppose that the political class enjoys privileges denied to the rest of us.
Most of the rooms were as bare and cheerless as a prison cell, but in some, it was impossible to ignore the presence of works of art.
Alok Sharma, the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, was confined, so far as one could tell, within his actual department.
For surely no one in their right mind would choose to adorn the wall of a private house with the crude daub of a row of ten identical dark blue paddles, or perhaps mortar rockets, which could be seen to the left of his head.
Except they looked too fluffy to be either paddles or rockets. This column’s artistic adviser happened at that moment to pass by, and on being asked what in her opinion the picture to the left of Sharma was actually of, replied in a patronising tone: “It looks like a piece of modern art – it doesn’t necessarily have to be of anything.”
Pat McFadden (Lab, Wolverhampton South East) appeared on the screen. He was confined to an attic, which had a skylight through which one could detect, somewhat indistinctly, a distant, tantalising prospect of trees which were actually waving in the breeze.
McFadden pointed out that while, according to Sharma, the British government’s business loan scheme has so far been taken up by 16,600 businesses, in Switzerland, 98,000 businesses have been helped, for the Swiss only have to fill in a one-page online form, and the funds arrive the next day.
Some of us departed, in our mind’s eye, to a land of alpine meadows, glistening peaks and instantaneous government loans. That option was not open to Sharma, who replied: “We are offering a mixture of support.”
Peter Kyle (Lab, Hove), speaking from a room of indeterminate use whose barrenness was accentuated by a vase of pink roses, put it to him: “You’re erring towards defending the system you have, rather than looking for other businesses that might need help.”
But Sharma told him: “We have to look at the totality of what we’re offering.”
Mark Jenkinson (Cons, Workington) attempted to address us from an empty room. “Mark, we don’t seem to be able to hear you, can you increase your volume,” said Mark Pawsey (Con, Rugby), who was chairing the committee.
Later we returned to Jenkinson, who had increased his volume so much his voice now echoed in a disconcerting way.
Sam Beckett, Acting Permanent Secretary at BEIS, was granted a brief appearance. She had a picture behind her of an angry cow, or possibly an angry bull. It was the most interesting picture we had seen all morning, but did not make one feel any better.
Pawsey called “Nusrat Ghani (Con, Wealden) who we can’t see but is available on audio”.
“Hopefully you still remember what I look like,” a voice said, and paused, but no one said anything.
Sharma, however, who baffled inquiry in part by his friendly manner, said a few moments later: “I very much remember what you look like and look forward to seeing you again.”
We were granted a glimpse of all the participants in the hearing, the screen divided into about a dozen pictures. A number of them were leaning on their hands in attitudes of extreme boredom.
For that is the other way in which Sharma baffled inquiry. He was relentlessly dull.
At this point I received a message that my neighbours had kindly left a bag of artichokes on my doorstep. When I returned to my screen, having put the artichokes on the kitchen table, I pressed the wrong button, and found myself looking, amazingly, at a beautiful picture.
It was by Sir Thomas Lawrence of the Duke of Wellington, the great soldier who also served as Prime Minister, wearing “civilian dress without any appendages of success or power”, as the ninth Duke said with approval, reminding us that when on campaign, the first Duke “did actually wear civilian dress”.
So a fitting modesty of demeanour is by no means a new feature of our ruling class. But if you have time to watch only one of these broadcasts, make it the one about the Duke.


conservativehome--2020-04-24--Calling Tories: New public appointments announced. Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authorit

Calling Tories: New public appointments announced. Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority – and more.

Eight years ago , the TaxPayers ’ Alliance reported that “ in the last year , five times more Labour people were appointed to public bodies than Tories ” .
It currently reports that almost half of avowedly political appointees last year owed their allegiance to Labour Party , compared to less than a third for the Conservatives .
Despite the selection of some Party members or supporters to fill important posts , over time , the Conservatives have punched beneath their weight when it comes to public appointments .
One of the reasons seems to be that Tories simply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number as Labour supporters .
To help remedy this , each week we put up links to some of the main public appointments vacancies , so that qualified Conservatives can be aware of the opportunities presented .
“ This is an opportunity to take on an intellectually demanding role at the heart of international financial services , leading a sizeable and complex organisation .
There is a requirement for strong leadership in a challenging environment to undertake a critically important role .
Under Andrew Bailey , the FCA has formulated a transformation programme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next phase of its development : a data strategy and enhanced analytical skills to rapidly identify harm across an exceptionally broad range of firms of all sizes exploiting fast-moving changes in technology and distribution to target consumers ; enhance employee capabilities and processes to act swiftly on the harms identified ; [ and ] and with a regulatory framework which is appropriate following the completion of EU withdrawal , and which takes advantage of the opportunities for better and more efficient regulation brought by technology and behavioural science.
” “ UnLtd is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Millennium Awards Trust ( MAT ) .
The Millennium Awards Trust was established by the Millennium Commission which founded it with a permanent endowment of £100 million of National Lottery funds .
The MAT is governed by a Trust Deed which defines the framework within which the MAT should operate .
This Deed provides for the appointment of a Protector of the Trust ( the Protector ) who has a fiduciary duty to ensure the integrity of the administration of the Trust and the propriety of its procedures .
The Protector is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the Secretary of State for Digital , Culture , Media and Sport .
We are now looking to identify a suitably qualified individual to succeed the incumbent who is coming to the end of their term .
We are looking to formally appoint a successor in Summer 2020.
” “ This is an exciting opportunity to join the Board of an organisation which keeps Britain moving .
You would be joining the DVSA at an exciting time , with the opportunity to help shape the future of the agency and ensure its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the executive team in developing the organisation to be equipped for a future where technological transformation will significantly influence mobility .
The DVSA is now seeking to appoint two Non-Executive Directors to the Board who will embrace technological disruption , possess an entrepreneurial spirit and have a passion for harnessing the possibilities that digital transformation plays in driving greater customer insight and intimacy .
We seek a Non-Executive Director who will be expected to provide thought leadership in digital transformation and keep abreast of digital transformation trends and innovative approaches to operational excellence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who will have the necessary skills required to chair the audit and risk committee.
” Time : Up to 36 days per annum .
“ Led by the Non-Executive Chair , the Crown Commercial Service ( CCS ) Board is responsible for the oversight of the operation of CCS , with emphasis on its strategic direction , management control , and corporate governance .
All Non-Executive Board Members are expected to contribute to decisions covering the strategy for the organisation and the overall direction of the business , adding value by offering counsel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seeking an exceptional individual to join our Board as a Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Technology and Digital Transformation Committee to support progression of our transformation journey… To complement our existing Board we are particularly interested in hearing from individuals who bring recent experience in leading large scale digital transformation in either the private or public sector.
” “ As a non-executive director , you will play an active role on the board of SLC , supporting the SLC Executive Team and SLC Chair to deliver the company ’ s portfolio of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , including the continued growth of its customer base , delivery of recommendations from the Tailored Review ( Annex 3 ) and implementation of the Review of Post-18 Education .
A key element of the role will be to work with the board to ensure that the resources and skills available to the Company are commensurate with and focussed on its delivery obligations .
The SLC administers the data underpinning one of Government ’ s major assets : the Student Loan book .
This data supports the sale of tranches of loans to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the exchequer and taxpayers ( £3.6bn raised to date ) .
There may be other opportunities to realise the value , in the widest sense , of the SLC ’ s data in the future .
”

Eight years ago, the TaxPayers’ Alliance reported that “in the last year, five times more Labour people were appointed to public bodies than Tories”.
It currently reports that almost half of avowedly political appointees last year owed their allegiance to Labour Party, compared to less than a third for the Conservatives.
Despite the selection of some Party members or supporters to fill important posts, over time, the Conservatives have punched beneath their weight when it comes to public appointments. One of the reasons seems to be that Tories simply don’t apply in the same number as Labour supporters.
To help remedy this, each week we put up links to some of the main public appointments vacancies, so that qualified Conservatives can be aware of the opportunities presented.
– – – – – – – – – –
Financial Conduct Authority – Chief Executive
“This is an opportunity to take on an intellectually demanding role at the heart of international financial services, leading a sizeable and complex organisation. There is a requirement for strong leadership in a challenging environment to undertake a critically important role. Under Andrew Bailey, the FCA has formulated a transformation programme, to equip the organisation for the next phase of its development: a data strategy and enhanced analytical skills to rapidly identify harm across an exceptionally broad range of firms of all sizes exploiting fast-moving changes in technology and distribution to target consumers; enhance employee capabilities and processes to act swiftly on the harms identified; [and] and with a regulatory framework which is appropriate following the completion of EU withdrawal, and which takes advantage of the opportunities for better and more efficient regulation brought by technology and behavioural science.”
Time: Full-time.
Remuneration: Competitive.
Closes: 24 April
– – – – – – – – – –
UnLtd – Protector of the Millennium Awards Trust
“UnLtd is a registered charity and the sole trustee of the Millennium Awards Trust (MAT). The Millennium Awards Trust was established by the Millennium Commission which founded it with a permanent endowment of £100 million of National Lottery funds. The MAT is governed by a Trust Deed which defines the framework within which the MAT should operate. This Deed provides for the appointment of a Protector of the Trust (the Protector) who has a fiduciary duty to ensure the integrity of the administration of the Trust and the propriety of its procedures. The Protector is appointed for a term of three years by the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport. We are now looking to identify a suitably qualified individual to succeed the incumbent who is coming to the end of their term. We are looking to formally appoint a successor in Summer 2020.”
Time: 3-4 hours per quarter.
Remuneration: £5,000 per annum honorarium.
Closes: 24 April
– – – – – – – – – –
Driver & Vehicle Standards Agency – Non-Executive Directors
“This is an exciting opportunity to join the Board of an organisation which keeps Britain moving. You would be joining the DVSA at an exciting time, with the opportunity to help shape the future of the agency and ensure its continued success. This will mean supporting the executive team in developing the organisation to be equipped for a future where technological transformation will significantly influence mobility. The DVSA is now seeking to appoint two Non-Executive Directors to the Board who will embrace technological disruption, possess an entrepreneurial spirit and have a passion for harnessing the possibilities that digital transformation plays in driving greater customer insight and intimacy. We seek a Non-Executive Director who will be expected to provide thought leadership in digital transformation and keep abreast of digital transformation trends and innovative approaches to operational excellence, as well as a Non-Executive Director who will have the necessary skills required to chair the audit and risk committee.”
Time: Up to 36 days per annum.
Remuneration: £15,000.
Closes: 28 April
– – – – – – – – – –
Crown Commercial Service – Non-Executive Directors
“Led by the Non-Executive Chair, the Crown Commercial Service (CCS) Board is responsible for the oversight of the operation of CCS, with emphasis on its strategic direction, management control, and corporate governance. All Non-Executive Board Members are expected to contribute to decisions covering the strategy for the organisation and the overall direction of the business, adding value by offering counsel, advice and challenge. We are seeking an exceptional individual to join our Board as a Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Technology and Digital Transformation Committee to support progression of our transformation journey… To complement our existing Board we are particularly interested in hearing from individuals who bring recent experience in leading large scale digital transformation in either the private or public sector.”
Time: Approx 2-3 days per month.
Remuneration: £15,000 per annum.
Closes: 17 May
– – – – – – – – – –
Student Loans Company Board – Non-Executive Directors
“As a non-executive director, you will play an active role on the board of SLC, supporting the SLC Executive Team and SLC Chair to deliver the company’s portfolio of priorities, overcome challenges and exploit opportunities, including the continued growth of its customer base, delivery of recommendations from the Tailored Review (Annex 3) and implementation of the Review of Post-18 Education. A key element of the role will be to work with the board to ensure that the resources and skills available to the Company are commensurate with and focussed on its delivery obligations. The SLC administers the data underpinning one of Government’s major assets: the Student Loan book. This data supports the sale of tranches of loans to monetise that asset for the benefit of the exchequer and taxpayers (£3.6bn raised to date). There may be other opportunities to realise the value, in the widest sense, of the SLC’s data in the future.”
Time: Two days per month.
Remuneration: £12,000, up to £17,000.
Closes: 19 May


conservativehome--2020-04-24--What Conservative MPs told us about the lockdown’s future. The consensus is for a gradual easing.

• We must stick with the lockdown , because any attempt to ease off it risks a Coronavirus second wave with which the NHS won ’ t be able to cope .
So a relaxation could blow the Government ’ s most solid gain from the crisis – the protection of the health service – while doing little to revive the economy , and necessitating second and further shutdowns that might not be enforceable , causing further deaths and leaving Boris Johnson and his team discredited and marooned .
• We must ease off the lockdown , because the NHS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ functioning economy , which is already seriously wounded , and to which an extended lockdown would deliver the coup de grace .
In any event , it ’ s far from clear that the healthcare gains from the shutdown are greater than the healthcare losses , and then there are the broader economic costs to consider .
Public opinion will soon turn and render the lockdown unenforceable , so Johnson must get ahead of it while he can .
These contrasting summaries are as fair a snapshot as we can manage of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the lockdown .
And it seems to this site that Boris Johnson , or his team if he is still recovering from illness , must make a decision which route they want to take by shortly after the first May Bank Holiday at the latest .
Crucial to it will be the view of Conservative MPs , who ultimately have the power to fire the Party leader – which would have the knock-on effect of disbanding his top team .
We are about a million miles from any such prospect at the moment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his “ war Cabinet ” will have forgotten it .
Parliament is now back in virtual form , and although most MPs aren ’ t at Westminster , and there will be few if any opportunities to vote on the lockdown before mid-May , Johnson must now be more mindful of them than before .
So we present below the sum of an unscientific ring-round of the best part of 20 Tory MPs .
We wanted them to speak off the record to aid candour , but also want readers to have a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ ve therefore gone as before with the broad categories of Northern , Midlands and Southern .
There are more of the last category below than the other two .
But the Party is still better represented in the South in any event , and as we use the category it ’ s very broad , stretching from the Essex coast all the way to the Cornwall one .
Picking out a theme is a bit like trying to pick out a tune played by a sheetless and conductorless orchestra .
Nonetheless , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • Claims of a split between a right of the Party that is pro-ending the lockdown and a left which is pro-keeping it are simplistic – views are mixed .
• Reports of Wednesday ’ s 1922 committee meeting , which was critical of the lockdown , must be seen in context .
The meeting was essentially one of the Executive Committee , which consists of under 20 people , carried out both live and virtually .
So the 250 or so-stromg What ’ sApp Group referred to below , in the absence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ committee , which every Conservative MP is entitled to attend , is more reliable guide to the mood of backbenchers .
• That said , the stress in the responses below is for easing off the lockdown in the near future .
“ Generally I think we ’ re doing the right thing .
I don ’ t think that we should be looking at any sort of exit strategy yet .
I think that ’ s just completely over the top – I think we ’ ve just got to get on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unfold , respond accordingly .
It ’ s grim – and I ’ d rather not be doing it – but I think generally I ’ m quite happy with the strategy that ’ s in place… The public are generally compliant in most cases , and responded to it relatively well.
” “ At the moment people are still being patient and understanding about the need for restrictions , and morale is generally high .
Yet I detect growing unease amongst both businesses and taxpayers about the long-term economic damage and how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there is no doubt that extended incarceration is bad for people ’ s physical and mental health .
Ministers should be giving businesses and sporting venues the chance to devise their own plans for re-opening and operating safely – for example by rationing places at golf courses and swimming pools and instituting rigorous cleaning regimes .
We must avoid a second spike in infections , but not be so cautious that the Government ends up playing catch-up when it comes to finding practical solutions.
” “ As the Government has repeatedly said , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and saving lives .
However , we need to recognise that further economic damage needs to be minimised .
I will be pleased to see businesses getting back to work as soon as it is safe to do so .
This should happen in a controlled manner so that we can track and trace any resurgence of the virus .
I know that many of my constituents are itching to get back to work but their safety is my top priority.
” “ I think it ’ s an awkward one because for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going on , we ’ ve been saying that we will follow the scientific advice – and to now try and change that argument now : if that ’ s the case , why are we even having lockdown in the first place ?
So whilst I personally want to see the lockdown go pretty quickly – I miss the pub , I miss socialising , I miss everything else , as everyone else does – it needs to go on as long as it needs to .
If the numbers start falling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tests ; they have to be met first , otherwise it just feels like everything we ’ ve done and all the pain the country ’ s gone through – it ’ s almost been for nothing.
” “ In my constituency there is still strong public support for lockdown – the police have reported very few problems and out of hundreds of emails my office receives every week , only a handful have asked for an end to restrictions .
Yet there is no doubt that these circumstances are very difficult for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Government should be looking for small ways to relax the rules that produce big benefits .
This includes things like allowing garden centres and churches to re-open , with appropriate social distancing in place , and letting small children go back to school .
But most important is avoiding the absolute disaster of a second peak and a return to lockdown later on.
” “ The Government needs to start being honest with the public .
The only long-term solutions to Covid-19 are a vaccine , a cure , or herd immunity .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ expect to be able to stamp it out : we aren ’ t even close to the sort of infrastructure we ’ d need even to try , and lockdown simply can not go on that long .
Every day , I get calls and emails from people whose lives and businesses are falling apart , and local NHS services are under-used because people who need them have been scared away .
We need to start lifting restrictions sooner rather than later and adopt better-targeted measures , such as shielding for the over-70s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a responsibility to lead , not simply be led by public opinion.
” “ We risk killing 100,000 people if we ease off the lockdown now .
But we may well be able to do so within the next three weeks .
The reason for this is that we don ’ t yet have the data that will help us to understand transmission properly , but my understanding is that we will do so very shortly – so it ’ s therefore important to wait until the position becomes clearer .
We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ antibody test that works than is usually being reported .
So while I ’ m not at all unsupportive of relaxing the lockdown , I don ’ t want to see it done in a way that means that the Government almost immediately has to try to reimpose it , perhaps unsuccessfully .
“ There is a balance between protecting the needs of the wider economy and protecting the lives of NHS staff .
That said , it ’ s evident that the lockdown can ’ t continue as it is indefinitely , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ withdrawal of it .
It would begin with , say , garden centres and small retail and end with large meetings .
Social distancing of the over 75s will have to continue indefinitely , I ’ m afraid .
While there is still strong support for the lockdown I ’ m detecting some cabin fever among local Conservative councillors and a definite shift in the mood.
” “ There is no easy answer , but my instinct is we should start easing sooner rather than later .
Following the publication of the police @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more people are leaving their homes and travelling to beaches to picnic and walk dogs .
If we are to remain in lockdown , we need clearer messages from the centre that it means everyone , not just those vulnerable to the virus .
Potentially we need the to give the police stronger enforcement powers , otherwise the lockdown will gradually drop off where the public think they can get away with breaking the guidance .
If locals are seen back on beaches having barbecues , then visitors will travel too.
” “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the lockdown at all , though my constituents are still very supportive of it .
But all this talk about coming off it makes me worry that the cure will be worse than the disease .
What happens if the Government announces a partial lifting of it , infection rates rise significantly above R , there ’ s a new rush of cases , the NHS is unable to cope and Ministers have then to struggle with a re-imposition of the lockdown ?
I ’ m not sure that all my colleagues have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lift the lockdown is definitely stronge on the right of the party , although there ’ s a lot of crossover of course.
” “ My constituents are all for the lockdown , and not considering the wider economic implications at all , really .
I ’ m almost paralysed with fear at the prospect of this situation continuing .
They don ’ t seem to grasp that some of those furloughed will be made redundant , that children on the vulnerable register aren ’ t being tracked at all , that real @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so on .
If there ’ s any shift at all it ’ s among the small businesses who are desparate to get back .
The mood on the MPs What ’ sApp group is a lot cooler than the reports from the 1922 committe meeting would suggest , and there are about 250 of us on it which is a lot of people.
” “ The lockdown should continue but it has to be limited .
Government is about listening to expert advice and then making a political decision .
That advice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ advice on the economics .
We do need to ensure there is not a second phase causing pressure for a second lockdown .
Imagine how messy that would be ?
How would all the Government schemes work with people be re-employed but then be furloughed again ?
But any lockdown does rely on consent .
Already I notice more people are out and about.
” “ The lockdown is a disaster .
It needs to be lifted urgently .
We need to get to where Sweden is chop , chop .
Otherwise , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the cure causes more harm than the disease .
Already the lockdown has achieved what we were told it was for – creating enough capacity in the NHS .
We need to open the economy up and trust the people .
There could still be guidance for the vulnerable – such as the elderly to stay in isolation .
But for the rest of us , we should rely on social distancing – people have got the message on it .
I ’ m worried about the boiled frog syndrome – that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so letting it happen.
” “ We should start gradually easing the restrictions .
Some should be lifted at once – for example , garden centres should be allowed to open .
Generally , I ’ m favour less government and I ’ m strong for individual freedom .
But we can ’ t ignore the scientific advice .
So it ’ s a balance .
I ’ m sure the Government is cognisant of the economic impact .
There is also the reality of human nature and people starting to get fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ responsible but give people some hope .
For instance , opening primary schools but waiting a bit longer to open secondary schools .
Once it is safe to go back to work we need some bold free enterprise reforms to boost economic recovery.
” “ Broadly I support the Government ’ s approach and it is still popular in my constituency .
My hunch is that the mood could prove volatile .
I do want to see some progress soon .
Businesses are going to go bust .
What about the harm to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be able to socialise ?
I see these American demonstrating and I wonder how long before the mood changes here .
I ’ m not saying end the lockdown at once .
But it needs to end soon or there could suddenly be a lot of anger.
” “ It ’ s got to be on scientific advice clearly .
But we know it ’ s not going to be just suddenly opened and we go back to normal .
Government ’ s first priority ’ s lives , but second priority @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy can work .
So we ’ ve got to be prepared… People tend to be sticking to the rules on a whole .
There ’ s a lot of noise in the media about it , but I think most people are cutting through that and understand the need to be safe – that seems to me what I ’ m getting .
”

We must stick with the lockdown, because any attempt to ease off it risks a Coronavirus second wave with which the NHS won’t be able to cope. So a relaxation could blow the Government’s most solid gain from the crisis – the protection of the health service – while doing little to revive the economy, and necessitating second and further shutdowns that might not be enforceable, causing further deaths and leaving Boris Johnson and his team discredited and marooned.
We must ease off the lockdown, because the NHS is only workable if funded by a functioning economy, which is already seriously wounded, and to which an extended lockdown would deliver the coup de grace. In any event, it’s far from clear that the healthcare gains from the shutdown are greater than the healthcare losses, and then there are the broader economic costs to consider. Public opinion will soon turn and render the lockdown unenforceable, so Johnson must get ahead of it while he can.
These contrasting summaries are as fair a snapshot as we can manage of the cases for and against a relaxation of the lockdown.
And it seems to this site that Boris Johnson, or his team if he is still recovering from illness, must make a decision which route they want to take by shortly after the first May Bank Holiday at the latest.
Crucial to it will be the view of Conservative MPs, who ultimately have the power to fire the Party leader – which would have the knock-on effect of disbanding his top team.
We are about a million miles from any such prospect at the moment, but neither the Prime Minister nor his “war Cabinet” will have forgotten it.
Parliament is now back in virtual form, and although most MPs aren’t at Westminster, and there will be few if any opportunities to vote on the lockdown before mid-May, Johnson must now be more mindful of them than before.
So we present below the sum of an unscientific ring-round of the best part of 20 Tory MPs. We wanted them to speak off the record to aid candour, but also want readers to have a rough idea of the distribution.
We’ve therefore gone as before with the broad categories of Northern, Midlands and Southern. There are more of the last category below than the other two.
But the Party is still better represented in the South in any event, and as we use the category it’s very broad, stretching from the Essex coast all the way to the Cornwall one.
Picking out a theme is a bit like trying to pick out a tune played by a sheetless and conductorless orchestra. Nonetheless, we pick out three key points.
Claims of a split between a right of the Party that is pro-ending the lockdown and a left which is pro-keeping it are simplistic – views are mixed.
Reports of Wednesday’s 1922 committee meeting, which was critical of the lockdown, must be seen in context. The meeting was essentially one of the Executive Committee, which consists of under 20 people, carried out both live and virtually. So the 250 or so-stromg What’sApp Group referred to below, in the absence of a big meeting of the full committee, which every Conservative MP is entitled to attend, is more reliable guide to the mood of backbenchers.
That said, the stress in the responses below is for easing off the lockdown in the near future.
– – –
MP representing a Northern seat
“Generally I think we’re doing the right thing. I don’t think that we should be looking at any sort of exit strategy yet. I think that’s just completely over the top – I think we’ve just got to get on with it, and then as things unfold, respond accordingly. It’s grim – and I’d rather not be doing it – but I think generally I’m quite happy with the strategy that’s in place… The public are generally compliant in most cases, and responded to it relatively well.”
MP representing a Midlands seat
“At the moment people are still being patient and understanding about the need for restrictions, and morale is generally high. Yet I detect growing unease amongst both businesses and taxpayers about the long-term economic damage and how it will be paid for, and there is no doubt that extended incarceration is bad for people’s physical and mental health. Ministers should be giving businesses and sporting venues the chance to devise their own plans for re-opening and operating safely – for example by rationing places at golf courses and swimming pools and instituting rigorous cleaning regimes. We must avoid a second spike in infections, but not be so cautious that the Government ends up playing catch-up when it comes to finding practical solutions.”
MP representing a Southern seat
“As the Government has repeatedly said, our priority must be protecting the NHS and saving lives. However, we need to recognise that further economic damage needs to be minimised. I will be pleased to see businesses getting back to work as soon as it is safe to do so. This should happen in a controlled manner so that we can track and trace any resurgence of the virus. I know that many of my constituents are itching to get back to work but their safety is my top priority.”
MP representing a Northern seat
“I think it’s an awkward one because for however long the entire outbreak has been going on, we’ve been saying that we will follow the scientific advice – and to now try and change that argument now: if that’s the case, why are we even having lockdown in the first place? So whilst I personally want to see the lockdown go pretty quickly – I miss the pub, I miss socialising, I miss everything else, as everyone else does – it needs to go on as long as it needs to. If the numbers start falling and we’ve got the five tests; they have to be met first, otherwise it just feels like everything we’ve done and all the pain the country’s gone through – it’s almost been for nothing.”
MP representing a Midlands seat
“In my constituency there is still strong public support for lockdown – the police have reported very few problems and out of hundreds of emails my office receives every week, only a handful have asked for an end to restrictions. Yet there is no doubt that these circumstances are very difficult for some people, so I think the Government should be looking for small ways to relax the rules that produce big benefits. This includes things like allowing garden centres and churches to re-open, with appropriate social distancing in place, and letting small children go back to school. But most important is avoiding the absolute disaster of a second peak and a return to lockdown later on.”
MP representing a Southern seat
“The Government needs to start being honest with the public. The only long-term solutions to Covid-19 are a vaccine, a cure, or herd immunity. It simply isn’t realistic to expect to be able to stamp it out: we aren’t even close to the sort of infrastructure we’d need even to try, and lockdown simply cannot go on that long. Every day, I get calls and emails from people whose lives and businesses are falling apart, and local NHS services are under-used because people who need them have been scared away. We need to start lifting restrictions sooner rather than later and adopt better-targeted measures, such as shielding for the over-70s, to protect vulnerable groups. Ministers have a responsibility to lead, not simply be led by public opinion.”
MP representing a Northern seat
“We risk killing 100,000 people if we ease off the lockdown now. But we may well be able to do so within the next three weeks. The reason for this is that we don’t yet have the data that will help us to understand transmission properly, but my understanding is that we will do so very shortly – so it’s therefore important to wait until the position becomes clearer. We’re also closer to finding an antibody test that works than is usually being reported. So while I’m not at all unsupportive of relaxing the lockdown, I don’t want to see it done in a way that means that the Government almost immediately has to try to reimpose it, perhaps unsuccessfully.
MP representing a Midlands seat
“There is a balance between protecting the needs of the wider economy and protecting the lives of NHS staff. That said, it’s evident that the lockdown can’t continue as it is indefinitely, so there needs to be a phased withdrawal of it. It would begin with, say, garden centres and small retail and end with large meetings. Social distancing of the over 75s will have to continue indefinitely, I’m afraid. While there is still strong support for the lockdown I’m detecting some cabin fever among local Conservative councillors and a definite shift in the mood.”
MP representing a Southern seat
“There is no easy answer, but my instinct is we should start easing sooner rather than later. Following the publication of the police training guidance last week many, many more people are leaving their homes and travelling to beaches to picnic and walk dogs. If we are to remain in lockdown, we need clearer messages from the centre that it means everyone, not just those vulnerable to the virus. Potentially we need the to give the police stronger enforcement powers, otherwise the lockdown will gradually drop off where the public think they can get away with breaking the guidance. If locals are seen back on beaches having barbecues, then visitors will travel too.”
MP representing a Northern seat
“Obviously, I don’t like the lockdown at all, though my constituents are still very supportive of it. But all this talk about coming off it makes me worry that the cure will be worse than the disease. What happens if the Government announces a partial lifting of it, infection rates rise significantly above R, there’s a new rush of cases, the NHS is unable to cope and Ministers have then to struggle with a re-imposition of the lockdown? I’m not sure that all my colleagues have thought it through. The move to lift the lockdown is definitely stronge on the right of the party, although there’s a lot of crossover of course.”
MP representing a Midlands seat
“My constituents are all for the lockdown, and not considering the wider economic implications at all, really. I’m almost paralysed with fear at the prospect of this situation continuing. They don’t seem to grasp that some of those furloughed will be made redundant, that children on the vulnerable register aren’t being tracked at all, that real consequences follow from cancelling exams – and so on. If there’s any shift at all it’s among the small businesses who are desparate to get back. The mood on the MPs What’sApp group is a lot cooler than the reports from the 1922 committe meeting would suggest, and there are about 250 of us on it which is a lot of people.”
MP representing a Southern seat
“The lockdown should continue but it has to be limited. Government is about listening to expert advice and then making a political decision. That advice should certainly include medical advice but also advice on the economics. We do need to ensure there is not a second phase causing pressure for a second lockdown. Imagine how messy that would be? How would all the Government schemes work with people be re-employed but then be furloughed again? But any lockdown does rely on consent. Already I notice more people are out and about.”
MP representing a Southern seat
“The lockdown is a disaster. It needs to be lifted urgently. We need to get to where Sweden is chop, chop. Otherwise, the economic damage will be so great that the cure causes more harm than the disease. Already the lockdown has achieved what we were told it was for – creating enough capacity in the NHS. We need to open the economy up and trust the people. There could still be guidance for the vulnerable – such as the elderly to stay in isolation. But for the rest of us, we should rely on social distancing – people have got the message on it.
I’m worried about the boiled frog syndrome – that we are destroying the economy slowly and so letting it happen.”
MP representing a Southern seat
“We should start gradually easing the restrictions. Some should be lifted at once – for example, garden centres should be allowed to open. Generally, I’m favour less government and I’m strong for individual freedom. But we can’t ignore the scientific advice. So it’s a balance. I’m sure the Government is cognisant of the economic
impact. There is also the reality of human nature and people starting to get fed up. A phased approach would be responsible but give people some hope. For instance, opening primary schools but waiting a bit longer to open secondary schools. Once it is safe to go back to work we need some bold free enterprise reforms to boost economic recovery.”
MP representing a Southern seat
“Broadly I support the Government’s approach and it is still popular in my constituency. My hunch is that the mood could prove volatile. I do want to see some progress soon. Businesses are going to go bust. What about the harm to mental health especially for children who need to be able to socialise? I see these American demonstrating and I wonder how long before the mood changes here. I’m not saying end the lockdown at once. But it needs to end soon or there could suddenly be a lot of anger.”
MP representing a Southern seat
“It’s got to be on scientific advice clearly. But we know it’s not going to be just suddenly opened and we go back to normal. Government’s first priority’s lives, but second priority’s livelihoods and making sure the economy can work. So we’ve got to be prepared… People tend to be sticking to the rules on a whole. There’s a lot of noise in the media about it, but I think most people are cutting through that and understand the need to be safe – that seems to me what I’m getting.”


Coronavirus Count

UK cumulative total of lab-confirmed cases : 138,078 ( Up from 133,495 ) .
UK cumulative total of COVID-19 associated UK deaths in hospital : 18,738 ( Up from 18,100 ) .
Latest daily number of lab-confirmed UK cases : 4,583 ( Up from 4,451 ) .
Latest daily number of COVID-19 associated UK deaths in hospital : 616 ( Down from 759 ) .
From the Government ’ s website Number of coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) cases and risk in the UK .
DAILY NUMBER OF COVID-19 ASSOCIATED DEATHS IN HOSPITAL From the Government ’ s website Number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the UK .
ConHome note April 14 : Public Health England has changed its presentation of the data to make it clear that the UK cumulative and daily totals of cases are of lab-confirmed figures , and that the cumulative and daily totals of deaths exclude those outside hospitals ( i.e : in care homes ) .
It has also separated out its graph info for cases and deaths .
We will reproduce the daily figures rather than cumulative ones .
“ The risk to the UK has been raised to high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ website Number of coronavirus ( COVID-19 ) cases and risk in the UK .
GOVERNMENT RULES ON STAYING AT HOME AND AWAY FROM OTHERS See here .
Published on Monday March 23 .
GUIDANCE : FURTHER BUSINESSES AND PREMISES TO CLOSE See here .
Published on Monday March 23 .
HOW EVERYONE CAN HELP STOP THE CORONAVIRUS ( SOCIAL DISTANCING ) See here .
Republished on Monday March 23 .
STAY AT HOME IF YOU THINK YOU HAVE CORONAVIRUS ( SELF-DISTANCING ) See here .
Republished on Monday March 23 .
See here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE FOR WORKERS ON WHAT AND HOW THEY CAN CLAIM See here .
Published on Friday March 20 .
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE FOR LANDLORDS , TENANTS AND LOCAL AUTHORITIES NEW See here .
Published on Saturday March 28 .
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE ON WHAT THE CORONAVIRUS BILL WILL DO See here .
Published on Wednesday March 18 HOW TO AVOID CATCHING OR SPREADING CORONAVIRUS • Wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds .
• Always wash your hands when you get home or into work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soap and water are not available .
• Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve ( not your hands ) when you cough or sneeze .
• Put used tissues in the bin straight away and wash your hands afterwards .
• Try to avoid close contact with people who are unwell .
The symptoms of coronavirus are : However , these symptoms do not necessarily mean you have the illness .
The symptoms are similar to other illnesses that are much more common , such as cold and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus service that can tell you if you need medical help and advise you what to do .
Use this service if : • You think you might have coronavirus .
• In the last 14 days you ’ ve been to a country or area with a high risk of coronavirus – see the coronavirus advice for travellers .
• You ’ ve been in close contact with someone with coronavirus .
• In Scotland call your GP or NHS 24 on 111 out of hours .
• In Wales call 111 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or 0845 46 47 .
• Do not go to a GP surgery , pharmacy or hospital .
• What the coronavirus is , how it ’ s spread and how to avoid catching it – Government NHS website overview .
• Stay at home advice and how to manage self-isolation .
( All information taken from Government sources .
Updated as of 7.00 on Friday April 24th . )

HEADLINE FACTS
Total number of lab-confirmed UK cases: 292,950 (Up from 291,409).
Total number of COVID-19 associated UK deaths: 41,481 (Up from 41,279).
Daily number of lab-confirmed UK cases: 1,541 (Up from 1,266).
Daily number of COVID-19 associated UK deaths: 202 (Up from 151).
England total cases: 156,410 (Up from 156,018 ).
England total deaths: 37,069 (Up from 36,883).
England death rate: 279.4 (Was 278.7).
Scotland total cases: 15,709 (Up from 15,682).
Scotland total deaths: 2,439 (Up from 2,434).
Scotland death rate: 288.9 (Was 288.4).
Wales total cases: 14,658 (Up from 14,581).
Wales total deaths: 1,435 (Up from 1,425).
Wales death rate: 467.0 (Was 464.6)
Northern Ireland total cases: 4,838 (Up from 4,822)
Northern Ireland total deaths: 538 (Up from 537).
Northern Ireland death rate: 257.1 (Was 256.3).
From the Government’s website Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK.
DAILY NUMBER OF COVID-19 ASSOCIATED DEATHS BY DATE REPORTED
DAILY NUMBER OF LAB-CONFIRMED ENGLAND CASES
From the Government’s website Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK.
– – –
RISK
“The risk to the UK has been raised to high” –
From the Government’s website Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK.
– – –
NHS VOLUNTEER RESPONDER FORM
See here
(The Government’s scheme to recruit 250,000 volunteers.)
– – –
OUR PLAN TO REBUILD: THE UK GOVERNMENT’S COVID-19 RECOVERY STRATEGY
See here. New as of Monday May 11.
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE ON THE LOCKDOWN.
See here. New as of Tuesday June 2.
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE ON SHIELDING AND PROTECTING PEOPLE WHO ARE CLINICALLY EXTREMELY VULNERABLE FROM COVID-19
See here. New as of Tuesday June 2.
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE ON SOCIAL DISTANCING
See here. New as of Tuesday June 2.
GOVERNMENT WEBSITE: GENERAL ADVICE
See here.
GOVERNMENT WEBSITE: FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS. WHAT YOU CAN DO AND CAN’T DO
See here.
GOVERNMENT GUIDANCE FOR LANDLORDS, TENANTS AND LOCAL AUTHORITIES NEW
See here. Published on Saturday March 28.
– – –
HOW TO AVOID CATCHING OR SPREADING CORONAVIRUS
Wash your hands with soap and water often – do this for at least 20 seconds .
Always wash your hands when you get home or into work .
Use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available .
Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when you cough or sneeze .
Put used tissues in the bin straight away and wash your hands afterwards .
Try to avoid close contact with people who are unwell.
SYMPTOMS
The symptoms of coronavirus are:
A cough.
A high temperature.
Shortness of breath.
However, these symptoms do not necessarily mean you have the illness.
The symptoms are similar to other illnesses that are much more common, such as cold and flu.
USING 111
NHS 111 has an online coronavirus service that can tell you if you need medical help and advise you what to do.
Use this service if:
You think you might have coronavirus.
In the last 14 days you’ve been to a country or area with a high risk of coronavirus – see the coronavirus advice for travellers.
You’ve been in close contact with someone with coronavirus.
In Scotland call your GP or NHS 24 on 111 out of hours.
In Wales call 111 (if available in your area) or 0845 46 47.
In Northern Ireland call 111.
Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital.
FURTHER LINKS TO GOVERNMENT ADVICE
– – –
(All information taken from Government sources.
Updated as of 19.00 on Friday June 12.)


conservativehome--2020-04-24--Iain Dale: Starmer makes a good start.  Now, just remind me. His predecessor was Jeremy…who?

Iain Dale presents the evening show on LBC Radio and is a commentator for CNN .
One of the more vacuous soundbites delivered by Minister after Minister at the daily press conferences is : “ We made the right decisions at the right time.
” Er , no .
First of all , at this stage it is impossible to know for certain that the right decisions were made , let along whether they were made at the right time .
And who is the judge and jury about what the right time was ?
We ’ re told all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best scientific advice available ” .
Fine – but it ’ s becoing clear that the Government ’ s scientific advisers aren ’ t and weren ’ t exactly all on the same page .
What Ministers should be saying is that they made what they believe were the right decisions at the right time , but that , inevitably , some mistakes have been made .
No Government in the world has , or could , get everything right .
And the general public knows that .
Admittedly , if Ministers make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ push on and ask which mistakes and when .
But in the end , admitting to mistakes is actually a sign of strength rather than weakness .
The Government will no doubt be very pleased at their poll ratings at the moment , but these could collapse at any time .
Sixty five per cent of the public think that Ministers have not performed well on the supply of PPE .
If that level of criticism spreads to other areas , these unprecedented Government opinion poll ratings of more than 50 percent will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has shown in his first three weeks as Labour Party leader that he is going to be much more of a challenge to deal with .
I can ’ t think of a foot that he ’ s put wrong so far .
Conservatives can ’ t rely on him tripping up in the way his predecessor did .
I seem to recall that his name was Jeremy something .
Over the course of the last few weeks , I ’ ve had a lot of approaches from people who have been finding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bureaucracy and get to the right person .
Many of them have been wanting to offer PPE material .
The trouble is : how do you work out who is serious , legitimate , or someone just trying to make a fast buck ?
I had a call into my show the other day from someone who reckoned that he had 10 million face masks in a warehouse , but the NHS wouldn ’ t take them because his company wasn ’ t an approved NHS supplier .
Just the sort of thing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ head against the wall .
I suggested that he email me all the details , and said I ’ d contact one of the Health ministers on his behalf .
However , I decided to quiz him a bit more , as a sixth sense told me something didn ’ t stack up here .
How much do these facemasks cost ?
I asked him .
Silence ensued for a couple of seconds .
“ Well , about $ 5 , ” he eventually spluttered .
I said that seemed very expensive , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ £1 .
I then asked him who on earth imports ten million masks when they haven ’ t sorted out a buyer for them – a thousand maybe , to retail on a website , but ten million ?
Again , he couldn ’ t answer .
I guess you won ’ t be surprised to hear that I never got an email from him .
I ’ m not sure that Harriet Harman covered herself in glory this week when she suggested that , if Boris Johnson is fit enough to take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is fit enough to return to work and do Prime Minister ’ s Questions .
The worst course that the Prime Minister could take is return to Downing Street too early , and risk his health again .
It ’ s a huge temptation for him to think that he ’ s ready , but he simply has to take the advice of his doctors .
And while we ’ re on this subject , shame on those who seem to believe that his whole illness wasn ’ t as serious as has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but because he wasn ’ t on a ventilator some people seem to think his health wasn ’ t serious .
They know nothing .
Many people die having not been on a ventilator .
The fact is that you don ’ t go into an ICU if you ’ re not in a very serious situation indeed .
Quite a high percentage of those who do don ’ t come out alive .
The New Zealand nurse who cared for the Prime Minister has now gone public , and confirmed that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indeed .
Let that be the end of it .
I have two dogs , a Jack Russell called Dude and a Miniature Schnauzer called Bubba .
Bubba has to go to the dog groomers every six weeks or so , otherwise he starts getting a bit shaggy .
It ’ s now been eight weeks .
My partner bought some hair scissors and cut his beard a bit , and his eyebrows , as the poor little blighter could barely see through them .
But given it ’ s quite hot at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the rest of his body ( Bubba ’ s – not my partners . )
I could use my Remington shaver which I use to shave my head , with a number three attachment , but I think that the experience might traumatise him !
All suggestions gratefully received .

Iain Dale presents the evening show on LBC Radio and is a commentator for CNN.
One of the more vacuous soundbites delivered by Minister after Minister at the daily press conferences is: “We made the right decisions at the right time.”
Er, no. First of all, at this stage it is impossible to know for certain that the right decisions were made, let along whether they were made at the right time.
And who is the judge and jury about what the right time was? We’re told all the decisions were made on “the best scientific advice available”. Fine – but it’s becoing clear that the Government’s scientific advisers aren’t and weren’t exactly all on the same page.
What Ministers should be saying is that they made what they believe were the right decisions at the right time, but that, inevitably, some mistakes have been made. No Government in the world has, or could, get everything right. And the general public knows that.
Admittedly, if Ministers make such an admission, the media will push on and ask which mistakes and when. But in the end, admitting to mistakes is actually a sign of strength rather than weakness. The Government will no doubt be very pleased at their poll ratings at the moment, but these could collapse at any time.
Sixty five per cent of the public think that Ministers have not performed well on the supply of PPE. If that level of criticism spreads to other areas, these unprecedented Government opinion poll ratings of more than 50 percent will plummet like a stone.
Keir Starmer has shown in his first three weeks as Labour Party leader that he is going to be much more of a challenge to deal with. I can’t think of a foot that he’s put wrong so far. Conservatives can’t rely on him tripping up in the way his predecessor did. I seem to recall that his name was Jeremy something.
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Over the course of the last few weeks, I’ve had a lot of approaches from people who have been finding it difficult to wade through the government bureaucracy and get to the right person.
Many of them have been wanting to offer PPE material. The trouble is: how do you work out who is serious, legitimate, or someone just trying to make a fast buck?
I had a call into my show the other day from someone who reckoned that he had 10 million face masks in a warehouse, but the NHS wouldn’t take them because his company wasn’t an approved NHS supplier. Just the sort of thing that makes you want to bang your head against the wall.
I suggested that he email me all the details, and said I’d contact one of the Health ministers on his behalf. However, I decided to quiz him a bit more, as a sixth sense told me something didn’t stack up here.
How much do these facemasks cost? I asked him. Silence ensued for a couple of seconds. “Well, about $5,” he eventually spluttered. I said that seemed very expensive, given that they normally retail at about £1.
I then asked him who on earth imports ten million masks when they haven’t sorted out a buyer for them – a thousand maybe, to retail on a website, but ten million? Again, he couldn’t answer. I guess you won’t be surprised to hear that I never got an email from him.
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I’m not sure that Harriet Harman covered herself in glory this week when she suggested that, if Boris Johnson is fit enough to take a phone-call from Donald Trump, he is fit enough to return to work and do Prime Minister’s Questions.
The worst course that the Prime Minister could take is return to Downing Street too early, and risk his health again. It’s a huge temptation for him to think that he’s ready, but he simply has to take the advice of his doctors.
And while we’re on this subject, shame on those who seem to believe that his whole illness wasn’t as serious as has been suggested. The man nearly died, but because he wasn’t on a ventilator some people seem to think his health wasn’t serious. They know nothing.
Many people die having not been on a ventilator. The fact is that you don’t go into an ICU if you’re not in a very serious situation indeed. Quite a high percentage of those who do don’t come out alive. The New Zealand nurse who cared for the Prime Minister has now gone public, and confirmed that he was in a very serious state indeed. Let that be the end of it.
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I have two dogs, a Jack Russell called Dude and a Miniature Schnauzer called Bubba. Bubba has to go to the dog groomers every six weeks or so, otherwise he starts getting a bit shaggy.
It’s now been eight weeks. My partner bought some hair scissors and cut his beard a bit, and his eyebrows, as the poor little blighter could barely see through them.
But given it’s quite hot at the moment I’m wondering about the rest of his body (Bubba’s – not my partners.) I could use my Remington shaver which I use to shave my head, with a number three attachment, but I think that the experience might traumatise him! All suggestions gratefully received.


conservativehome--2020-04-24--Matthew Evans: Devolution has caused confusion during this crisis

Cllr Matthew Evans is Leader of the Conservative Group on Newport Council .
Back in the middle of March , I sat in a room with other councillors , and with Council officers , undertaking a sifting process to appoint a Chief Executive at Newport City Council .
That was to be the last face to face meeting I had , as the coronavirus pandemic escalated rapidly .
Shortly afterwards I had a conversation with the Leader of the Council and I told her I was putting party politics aside and would assist in any way I could .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from so-called ‘ senior ’ politicians and I think the public are too .
Don ’ t get me wrong , if there are issues and concerns I will raise them but I believe it is time to pull together .
Before this crisis I had never even heard of Zoom but now it is part of everyday , both for work and social interaction .
In addition to regular email correspondence we have a weekly Group catch up via Zoom and I relay any concerns back to the Leader of the Council @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issued to all Councillors by the Group leaders ensuring continuity and consistency in messaging to the residents of the City .
Communication works two ways : I was inundated with messages and requests from people of all ages wanting to volunteer and/or setting up their own local help groups , often via social media .
They are all incredibly well intentioned and it is heartening to see the enthusiasm and community spirit alive and well .
But , there are risks and potential liability issues in this approach .
This is why we @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city who are co-ordinating activities : The Red Cross , Age Cymru ( Concern ) and GAVO the Gwent Association of Voluntary Organisation .
These groups have the knowledge and expertise to ensure duplication of effort is minimised and all areas of the City benefit .
The system is not perfect by any stretch of the imagination : having submitted my application to volunteer at the end of the March , almost four weeks later I am still waiting for my first assignment .
Although this is perhaps understandable with so many wanting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disheartening when you believe you have something to offer and are able to make a ( small ) difference .
It ’ s clearly far too early to be debating lessons learned , but the blanket mandating of DBS checks for all volunteer positions ( regardless of contact with the public and levels of supervision ) will surely need to be addressed in any future emergency planning .
It is well publicised that Newport is hit particularly badly by the coronavirus and there are no clear answers as to why this should be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t particularly helpful .
Speculation driven by social media and some elements of the press has been divisive and dangerous : at a time when we should be pulling together , reckless words push our communities further apart .
Social media also gives voice to the ever growing multitude of scientific experts and economists , each demanding that we listen to how they would have done things differently .
But if anyone can name a reputable economist who predicted a global recession back in December 2019 , I would very much like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the front line when it comes to leading the community response and we all have a duty to provide visible and responsible local leadership .
Whether it is support for the homeless , elderly and vulnerable groups , or rate rebates and Trading Standard enquiries I don ’ t think the public comprehend the vast range of services we provide .
But there again , why should they ?
As I keep being reminded ‘ I pay my Council Tax ’ , so it ’ s up to the elected members , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whatever is necessary to deliver…seamlessly .
Hopefully , when this is all over , there will be greater appreciation and recognition for essential groups including care workers and refuse collectors who have held our City together through the toughest , extraordinary times .
Because many issues in Wales are now devolved , there is always confusion when UK Government makes an announcement as to if it applies to us .
The biggest bone of contention is that parks and cemeteries remain closed in Newport despite the advice in England that they should stay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would say public opinion is split down the middle with strong arguments in both support and opposition .
A major concern voiced by those opposing the reopening is antisocial behaviour and illegal gathering : sadly we seem to let a minority spoil it for everyone else .
Looking forward , it is difficult to predict the long-term impact of this crisis and we need to let the dust settle before having an honest appraisal of what went wrong , what worked well , and how we can improve should we experience anything like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to some sort of normality I will need to work out how I can attend seven AGM ’ s and get my hair cut…

Cllr Matthew Evans is Leader of the Conservative Group on Newport Council.
Back in the middle of March, I sat in a room with other councillors, and with Council officers, undertaking a sifting process to appoint a Chief Executive at Newport City Council. That was to be the last face to face meeting I had, as the coronavirus pandemic escalated rapidly. Shortly afterwards I had a conversation with the Leader of the Council and I told her I was putting party politics aside and would assist in any way I could. I am tired of hearing petty point scoring from so-called ‘senior’ politicians and I think the public are too. Don’t get me wrong, if there are issues and concerns I will raise them but I believe it is time to pull together.
Before this crisis I had never even heard of Zoom but now it is part of everyday, both for work and social interaction. In addition to regular email correspondence we have a weekly Group catch up via Zoom and I relay any concerns back to the Leader of the Council via TEAM. A weekly email is issued to all Councillors by the Group leaders ensuring continuity and consistency in messaging to the residents of the City.
Communication works two ways: I was inundated with messages and requests from people of all ages wanting to volunteer and/or setting up their own local help groups, often via social media. They are all incredibly well intentioned and it is heartening to see the enthusiasm and community spirit alive and well. But, there are risks and potential liability issues in this approach. This is why we signpost them to three organisations across the city who are co-ordinating activities: The Red Cross, Age Cymru (Concern) and GAVO the Gwent Association of Voluntary Organisation. These groups have the knowledge and expertise to ensure duplication of effort is minimised and all areas of the City benefit.
The system is not perfect by any stretch of the imagination: having submitted my application to volunteer at the end of the March, almost four weeks later I am still waiting for my first assignment. Although this is perhaps understandable with so many wanting to help, it is a little disheartening when you believe you have something to offer and are able to make a (small) difference. It’s clearly far too early to be debating lessons learned, but the blanket mandating of DBS checks for all volunteer positions (regardless of contact with the public and levels of supervision) will surely need to be addressed in any future emergency planning.
It is well publicised that Newport is hit particularly badly by the coronavirus and there are no clear answers as to why this should be. I could speculate but that isn’t particularly helpful. Speculation driven by social media and some elements of the press has been divisive and dangerous: at a time when we should be pulling together, reckless words push our communities further apart.
Social media also gives voice to the ever growing multitude of scientific experts and economists, each demanding that we listen to how they would have done things differently. But if anyone can name a reputable economist who predicted a global recession back in December 2019, I would very much like to hear from them.
Councils are on the front line when it comes to leading the community response and we all have a duty to provide visible and responsible local leadership. Whether it is support for the homeless, elderly and vulnerable groups, or rate rebates and Trading Standard enquiries I don’t think the public comprehend the vast range of services we provide. But there again, why should they? As I keep being reminded ‘I pay my Council Tax’, so it’s up to the elected members, council officers and workers, to do whatever is necessary to deliver…seamlessly. Hopefully, when this is all over, there will be greater appreciation and recognition for essential groups including care workers and refuse collectors who have held our City together through the toughest, extraordinary times.
Because many issues in Wales are now devolved, there is always confusion when UK Government makes an announcement as to if it applies to us. The biggest bone of contention is that parks and cemeteries remain closed in Newport despite the advice in England that they should stay open. At the moment, I would say public opinion is split down the middle with strong arguments in both support and opposition. A major concern voiced by those opposing the reopening is antisocial behaviour and illegal gathering: sadly we seem to let a minority spoil it for everyone else.
Looking forward, it is difficult to predict the long-term impact of this crisis and we need to let the dust settle before having an honest appraisal of what went wrong, what worked well, and how we can improve should we experience anything like this again.
When we do get back to some sort of normality I will need to work out how I can attend seven AGM’s and get my hair cut…


conservativehome--2020-04-24--The latest track and trace plan is a significant shift in strategy

Those paying close attention to the daily press briefings may remember that , on March 26 , Jenny Harries , the Deputy Chief Medical Officer , told reporters : “ Although we still do some contact tracing and testing , for example in high-risk areas like prisons and care homes , that is not an appropriate mechanism as we go forward ” .
So some will be surprised by Matt Hancock ’ s briefing yesterday , in which he appeared to contradict her words – announcing that a “ large-scale ” operation was underway – in order to ramp up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Was this a U-turn ?
It is arguably the third time that the UK ( whether the Government , health authorities , or both ) has changed its mind on rolling out this strategy , which involves detecting those infected with Coronavirus and their contacts , so as to control the spread .
Indeed , in the initial phases of this outbreak ( for six weeks between January and March ) , Public Health England ( PHE ) used contact tracing to track COVID-19 .
But this approach was abandoned on March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was no longer effective , due to the escalating rate of community transmissions .
What explains the Government ’ s new direction ?
Well for one , its options are rather limited ; herd immunity – whether it was ever properly considered , or not – is now unsaleable as a strategy .
And after going into lockdown mode , the Government has been under huge pressure to produce an exit strategy – exacerbated by Nicola Sturgeon , who has released one for Scotland .
Conservatives have been reticent to produce anything similar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tests will be used to determine what ’ s next in the UK ’ s Coronavirus approach .
But contact tracing at least offers a glimmer of hope to the public that freedom is not so far away .
It acts as a complementary technique – allowing governments to slowly reopen their economies while keeping a close eye on how the virus is spreading .
Without it , they are fighting blind – with no idea of who ’ s taking the bug where .
The plan to roll out contact tracing also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which have all used it with various degrees of success to manage transmission of the virus .
The World Health Organisation has claimed it should be “ the backbone of the response in every country ” .
So perhaps it ’ s no wonder we are finally at this point .
The UK ’ s programme has two major components .
One is the recruitment of human contact tracers to identify and help isolate people with new symptoms – and any others that they have infected .
These recruits will give practical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well as obtaining details of places that they ’ ve been to and who they ’ ve been around .
Currently , PHE has 290 such recruits , but ministers want to ramp this up to 18,000 contact tracers , including 3,000 health professionals , with council staff and civil servants drafted in to carry out these jobs .
The next part of the strategy involves technology .
The NHS is developing a Bluetooth app for smartphones , titled NHSX , which allows members of the public to report when they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suspected they will be sent a home testing kit , and if it comes back positive , the app will automatically alert people also using the app who ’ ve been in close quarters with the patient .
The advantages to Bluetooth technology is that it can detect others with the same app – while keeping everyone ’ s location and identity anonymous .
All that is communicated is whether the other person has had the Coronavirus .
There will be some teething issues , one imagines , with the project .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ encourage large numbers of the public to download the app .
It has been estimated that 60 per cent of the population needs to use it in order for it to have an effective impact .
This will no doubt be contingent on factors , such as how many people have smartphones , how technologically savvy the Brits are – and how much they want to comply with the Government ’ s suggestion .
All unknowns .
Some have also had concerns about their privacy being invaded , although the Government ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Korea – where interviews , GPS phone tracking , credit-card records and surveillance camera footage was used for contact-tracing .
Lastly , one of the most critical questions will be whether 18,000 staff are enough to roll out the project .
It sounds impressive , but some scientists say we need 100,000 contact tracers .
One suspects volunteers will eventually be called in to help – as there will be increasing cries from the media as to whether we have enough .
Even so , along with massive increases in testing , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conquering the disease .
And a third significant change of course .

Those paying close attention to the daily press briefings may remember that, on March 26, Jenny Harries, the Deputy Chief Medical Officer, told reporters: “Although we still do some contact tracing and testing, for example in high-risk areas like prisons and care homes, that is not an appropriate mechanism as we go forward”.
So some will be surprised by Matt Hancock’s briefing yesterday, in which he appeared to contradict her words – announcing that a “large-scale” operation was underway – in order to ramp up the country’s contact tracing capabilities.
Was this a U-turn? It is arguably the third time that the UK (whether the Government, health authorities, or both) has changed its mind on rolling out this strategy, which involves detecting those infected with Coronavirus and their contacts, so as to control the spread.
Indeed, in the initial phases of this outbreak (for six weeks between January and March), Public Health England (PHE) used contact tracing to track COVID-19. But this approach was abandoned on March 12, on the basis that it was no longer effective, due to the escalating rate of community transmissions.
What explains the Government’s new direction? Well for one, its options are rather limited; herd immunity – whether it was ever properly considered, or not – is now unsaleable as a strategy. And after going into lockdown mode, the Government has been under huge pressure to produce an exit strategy – exacerbated by Nicola Sturgeon, who has released one for Scotland.
Conservatives have been reticent to produce anything similar, instead telling the public that five tests will be used to determine what’s next in the UK’s Coronavirus approach. But contact tracing at least offers a glimmer of hope to the public that freedom is not so far away. It acts as a complementary technique – allowing governments to slowly reopen their economies while keeping a close eye on how the virus is spreading. Without it, they are fighting blind – with no idea of who’s taking the bug where.
The plan to roll out contact tracing also follows Germany, South Korea and Singapore, which have all used it with various degrees of success to manage transmission of the virus. The World Health Organisation has claimed it should be “the backbone of the response in every country”. So perhaps it’s no wonder we are finally at this point.
The UK’s programme has two major components.
One is the recruitment of human contact tracers to identify and help isolate people with new symptoms – and any others that they have infected. These recruits will give practical advice to patients who are self-isolating, as well as obtaining details of places that they’ve been to and who they’ve been around.
Currently, PHE has 290 such recruits, but ministers want to ramp this up to 18,000 contact tracers, including 3,000 health professionals, with council staff and civil servants drafted in to carry out these jobs.
The next part of the strategy involves technology. The NHS is developing a Bluetooth app for smartphones, titled NHSX, which allows members of the public to report when they’re feeling unwell.
If COVID-19 is suspected they will be sent a home testing kit, and if it comes back positive, the app will automatically alert people also using the app who’ve been in close quarters with the patient.
The advantages to Bluetooth technology is that it can detect others with the same app – while keeping everyone’s location and identity anonymous. All that is communicated is whether the other person has had the Coronavirus.
There will be some teething issues, one imagines, with the project.
For starters, the Government will have to encourage large numbers of the public to download the app. It has been estimated that 60 per cent of the population needs to use it in order for it to have an effective impact.
This will no doubt be contingent on factors, such as how many people have smartphones, how technologically savvy the Brits are – and how much they want to comply with the Government’s suggestion. All unknowns.
Some have also had concerns about their privacy being invaded, although the Government’s approach looks fairly polite compared to South Korea – where interviews, GPS phone tracking, credit-card records and surveillance camera footage was used for contact-tracing.
Lastly, one of the most critical questions will be whether 18,000 staff are enough to roll out the project. It sounds impressive, but some scientists say we need 100,000 contact tracers. One suspects volunteers will eventually be called in to help – as there will be increasing cries from the media as to whether we have enough.
Even so, along with massive increases in testing, it is an important step forward – in conquering the disease. And a third significant change of course.