conservativehome--2020-11-07--David Gauke: If Johnson goes for a Brexit trade deal, as he should, he should also go for a further

David Gauke: If Johnson goes for a Brexit trade deal, as he should, he should also go for a further implementation period.

David Gauke is a former Justice Secretary , and was an independent candidate in South-West Hertfordshire at the recent general election .
It is time to talk about Brexit again .
Understandably , the country ’ s attention has been focused upon the second wave of Covid-19 and the Government ’ s response to it .
And in the past few days , many of us have welcomed the chance to change the subject and follow every twist and turn of the US Presidential election .
But it is all too easy to miss the fact that the next week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the protracted saga of the UK ’ s departure from the European Union .
Just this afternoon , the Prime Minister is speaking to the President of the EU Commission .
We are so used to deadlines whooshing past with little or no practical consequence , there is a temptation to be complacent about the EU ’ s position that , for a free trade agreement between the UK and the EU to be ratified in time to take effect by the end of the transitional period , such agreement would need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ After all , the Prime Minister has previously said that talks would need to conclude by 15 October in order to reach a deal and – save for a brief and rather unconvincing walk-out – the parties carried on talking .
This time , however , the difficulty is that we are not dealing with a deadline imposed for political reasons in order to focus the minds .
We are now at the stage of running out of time to go through all the practical hurdles to ratify any agreement amongst member states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remains as it has been for months .
The two sides remain some way apart of the level playing field provisions , particularly on state aid , and how any agreement is enforced .
In addition , the economically irrelevant issue of fish continues to be contentious .
Progress has been made on many of the technical issues , but on these fundamental points the talks have stalled .
Both sides have given some ground , but will have to move further .
And the side that is going to have to move @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UK .
If Boris Johnson wants a deal , at the very least he will have to accept something which recent leaders of the Conservative Party would consider to be desirable regardless of the EU implications – a robust and independent state aid regime .
I do not know whether the Prime Minister will decide to go for a deal .
As far as I can see , it is not clear that he knows himself .
Making decisions is not always a strong point for Johnson , and he made one big @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re-imposing a lockdown .
Now he has to make another .
At one level , the decision should be straightforward .
The right to waste public money by subsidising loss-making businesses has never been a demand of most Eurosceptics , save for a few Bennites , and was a non-issue in the 2016 referendum campaign .
( Johnson has praised the EU on this point . )
He went to the country in 2019 promising he had a deal : failing to conclude an FTA looks like a failure of competence and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy will suffer a further blow .
However , it has been reported that the Prime Minister is ‘ emotionally drawn ’ towards a WTO Brexit .
Why might that be ?
It is possible that he believes that any constraint on decision is an unacceptable suppression of sovereignty , but that suggests a purity of view that would make a free trade agreement with anyone impossible .
The politics and the Prime Minister ’ s perceptions of his own self-interest may tempt him to turn down a deal .
Nigel Farage is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ready to cry betrayal ( again ) which will panic plenty of Conservative MPs ( again ) .
Johnson will also be aware that he has taken on many of his Parliamentary colleagues over the Government ’ s response to Covid-19 – he might not want to take on many of the same people on a second issue .
And – a point I made back in February – even a deal will cause economic disruption .
If the Prime Minister agrees to a deal in the next few days , he will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also explain to businesses that time is running out to prepare for it being much more difficult to trade with the EU .
The evidence that – even with the thin deal we may get – the end of the transition period will damage the economy is growing .
On Thursday , the Bank of England pointed out that the UK ’ s trade and GDP will be adversely affected in the first half of 2021 , even with a deal .
On Friday , the National Audit Office published a report expressing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disruption in 2021 because of failures to prepare for post-Brexit borders .
A deal will help because it might provide an opportunity to ease rules in particular circumstances but the fundamental problems remain the same .
The approach of the Government has been to blame businesses for not being prepared .
Some businesses may have been complacent about the consequences of the end of the transition period , but they can hardly be blamed when the Government , until relatively recently , has not been able to provide details of our future relationship @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It simply is not .
At a practical level , leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union only makes it harder to trade with the EU .
The Prime Minister might be tempted to try to escape responsibility for the predicament that he , more than anyone , has got us in .
He could collapse the talks , and blame the EU for the consequences that the country will face in January .
We saw how Brexiteers rather enjoyed the prospect of the talks collapsing in mid-October .
A bitter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for years would be truly thrilling to some .
And quite a lot of the public would swallow mendacious claims for the reasons of the negotiations breaking down .
In terms of the next few weeks , walking away from the talks might be the easier path to tread .
It would also be grossly irresponsible .
In the medium term , it would not be possible for Boris Johnson to escape responsibility for a decision that will have a major impact on many people ’ s lives and livelihoods .
The timing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already shrinking and businesses restricted in what they can do because of Covid restrictions for at least four of last nine weeks until the transition period ends .
If the Prime Minister wants a soft landing for Brexit , he will need to make concessions , but he needs to do more .
Time has run out to prepare properly for 31 December .
Even at this late stage , he should ensure that his deal has a further implementation period of another 12 months .
A combination of Covid and the Government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the realities of Brexit means that ending the transition period at the end of the year will cause even greater problems than necessary .
A responsible Prime Minister should seek to prevent that from happening .
He should get a deal that gives everyone time to implement it .

David Gauke is a former Justice Secretary, and was an independent candidate in South-West Hertfordshire at the recent general election.
It is time to talk about Brexit again.
Understandably, the country’s attention has been focused upon the second wave of Covid-19 and the Government’s response to it. And in the past few days, many of us have welcomed the chance to change the subject and follow every twist and turn of the US Presidential election. But it is all too easy to miss the fact that the next week will be one of the most important in the protracted saga of the UK’s departure from the European Union. Just this afternoon, the Prime Minister is speaking to the President of the EU Commission.
We are so used to deadlines whooshing past with little or no practical consequence, there is a temptation to be complacent about the EU’s position that, for a free trade agreement between the UK and the EU to be ratified in time to take effect by the end of the transitional period, such agreement would need to be concluded by 15 November. After all, the Prime Minister has previously said that talks would need to conclude by 15 October in order to reach a deal and – save for a brief and rather unconvincing walk-out – the parties carried on talking.
This time, however, the difficulty is that we are not dealing with a deadline imposed for political reasons in order to focus the minds. We are now at the stage of running out of time to go through all the practical hurdles to ratify any agreement amongst member states and the European Parliament.
The stand-off remains as it has been for months. The two sides remain some way apart of the level playing field provisions, particularly on state aid, and how any agreement is enforced. In addition, the economically irrelevant issue of fish continues to be contentious.
Progress has been made on many of the technical issues, but on these fundamental points the talks have stalled. Both sides have given some ground, but will have to move further. And the side that is going to have to move the furthest will have to be the UK. If Boris Johnson wants a deal, at the very least he will have to accept something which recent leaders of the Conservative Party would consider to be desirable regardless of the EU implications – a robust and independent state aid regime.
I do not know whether the Prime Minister will decide to go for a deal. As far as I can see, it is not clear that he knows himself. Making decisions is not always a strong point for Johnson, and he made one big difficult decision a few days ago by re-imposing a lockdown. Now he has to make another.
At one level, the decision should be straightforward. The right to waste public money by subsidising loss-making businesses has never been a demand of most Eurosceptics, save for a few Bennites, and was a non-issue in the 2016 referendum campaign. (Johnson has praised the EU on this point.) He went to the country in 2019 promising he had a deal: failing to conclude an FTA looks like a failure of competence and a breach of trust. An already fragile economy will suffer a further blow.
However, it has been reported that the Prime Minister is ‘emotionally drawn’ towards a WTO Brexit. Why might that be? It is possible that he believes that any constraint on decision is an unacceptable suppression of sovereignty, but that suggests a purity of view that would make a free trade agreement with anyone impossible.
The politics and the Prime Minister’s perceptions of his own self-interest may tempt him to turn down a deal. Nigel Farage is relaunching himself (again) and is ready to cry betrayal (again) which will panic plenty of Conservative MPs (again). Johnson will also be aware that he has taken on many of his Parliamentary colleagues over the Government’s response to Covid-19 – he might not want to take on many of the same people on a second issue. And – a point I made back in February – even a deal will cause economic disruption. If the Prime Minister agrees to a deal in the next few days, he will have to proclaim a triumph, but also explain to businesses that time is running out to prepare for it being much more difficult to trade with the EU.
The evidence that – even with the thin deal we may get – the end of the transition period will damage the economy is growing. On Thursday, the Bank of England pointed out that the UK’s trade and GDP will be adversely affected in the first half of 2021, even with a deal. On Friday, the National Audit Office published a report expressing concerns that UK business will face widespread disruption in 2021 because of failures to prepare for post-Brexit borders. A deal will help because it might provide an opportunity to ease rules in particular circumstances but the fundamental problems remain the same.
The approach of the Government has been to blame businesses for not being prepared. Some businesses may have been complacent about the consequences of the end of the transition period, but they can hardly be blamed when the Government, until relatively recently, has not been able to provide details of our future relationship and presented this moment as an opportunity. It simply is not. At a practical level, leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union only makes it harder to trade with the EU.
The Prime Minister might be tempted to try to escape responsibility for the predicament that he, more than anyone, has got us in. He could collapse the talks, and blame the EU for the consequences that the country will face in January. We saw how Brexiteers rather enjoyed the prospect of the talks collapsing in mid-October. A bitter dispute with the EU which could last for years would be truly thrilling to some. And quite a lot of the public would swallow mendacious claims for the reasons of the negotiations breaking down. In terms of the next few weeks, walking away from the talks might be the easier path to tread.
It would also be grossly irresponsible. In the medium term, it would not be possible for Boris Johnson to escape responsibility for a decision that will have a major impact on many people’s lives and livelihoods. The timing could not be worse with the economy already shrinking and businesses restricted in what they can do because of Covid restrictions for at least four of last nine weeks until the transition period ends.
If the Prime Minister wants a soft landing for Brexit, he will need to make concessions, but he needs to do more. Time has run out to prepare properly for 31 December. Even at this late stage, he should ensure that his deal has a further implementation period of another 12 months. A combination of Covid and the Government’s failure to prepare the nation for the realities of Brexit means that ending the transition period at the end of the year will cause even greater problems than necessary. A responsible Prime Minister should seek to prevent that from happening. He should get a deal that gives everyone time to implement it.


conservativehome--2020-11-08--WATCH: Remembrance Day is going to be ‘particularly tough for our veterans’

This year ’ s Remembrance Day is going to be `` particularly tough for our Veterans '' , says General @ @ @ @ @ https : //t.co/gLsEBdcy1x pic.twitter.com/8uYPJrdly8

This year’s Remembrance Day is going to be "particularly tough for our Veterans", says General Sir Nick Carter#Marr https://t.co/gLsEBdcy1x pic.twitter.com/8uYPJrdly8
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) November 8, 2020


conservativehome--2020-11-08--WATCH: Government will at some point have to ‘confront the public finances’, warns Javid

“ Eventually ” the UK will have to “ confront the public finances ” and will have to “ control @ @ @ @ @ ” says former chancellor @ sajidjavid He says “ some taxes ” will have to @ @ @ @ @ ’ t hit businesses.
# Ridge live : https : //t.co/lDXGi9GhxJ pic.twitter.com/kI4mWmmoNk

“Eventually” the UK will have to “confront the public finances” and will have to “control public spending even more tightly” says former chancellor @sajidjavid
He says “some taxes” will have to go up but they shouldn’t hit businesses.#Ridge live: https://t.co/lDXGi9GhxJ pic.twitter.com/kI4mWmmoNk
— Sophy Ridge on Sunday (@RidgeOnSunday) November 8, 2020


conservativehome--2020-11-08--WATCH: Raab – ‘Of course, we listen very carefully to our American friends’

# Marr asks Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab if the government is prepared to move on the Internal Market Bill to @ @ @ @ @ with the US # Brexit https : //t.co/8orhw8QnnR pic.twitter.com/9nZrYPp1Sl

#Marr asks Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab if the government is prepared to move on the Internal Market Bill to achieve a post-Brexit trade deal with the US#Brexit https://t.co/8orhw8QnnR pic.twitter.com/9nZrYPp1Sl
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) November 8, 2020


conservativehome--2020-11-08--This is a morning on which to celebrate unifying, popular, national leadership

This is a morning in which to celebrate unifying , popular , national leadership – and politicians who bring people together rather than divide them .
It is in that spirit that we draw our readers ’ attention to Rishi Sunak , the most popular politician in the country , and the man who now consistently tops our regular ConservativeHome Cabinet League Table .
How has he managed it , what happens next – and who is he ?
Later this week , I will be trying to find out as I join Lord Ashcroft , ConservativeHome ’ s proprietor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ book – a biography of the Chancellor : Going for Broke .
You are also invited to this live Zoom event , during which “ Lord Ashcroft will give an exclusive insight into his study of the Chancellor ’ s life , and answer questions submitted by you , the viewers ” .
So please do register via the link below for your free ticket as we explore the story of “ a super-bright and hard-grafting son of immigrant parents who marries an Indian heiress and makes a fortune of his own… …a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voters of rural North Yorkshire… …and a cautious , fiscally conservative financier who has become the biggest-spending Chancellor in history ” .
Here is the link to the registration page for the event , which will take place this Thursday , November 12 , at 19.00 .
The second extract from the Mail on Sunday ‘ s serialisation of Going for Broke is published today .

This is a morning in which to celebrate unifying, popular, national leadership – and politicians who bring people together rather than divide them.
It is in that spirit that we draw our readers’ attention to Rishi Sunak, the most popular politician in the country, and the man who now consistently tops our regular ConservativeHome Cabinet League Table.
How has he managed it, what happens next – and who is he? Later this week, I will be trying to find out as I join Lord Ashcroft, ConservativeHome’s proprietor, for the launch of his new book – a biography of the Chancellor: Going for Broke.
You are also invited to this live Zoom event, during which “Lord Ashcroft will give an exclusive insight into his study of the Chancellor’s life, and answer questions submitted by you, the viewers”.
So please do register via the link below for your free ticket as we explore the story of “a super-bright and hard-grafting son of immigrant parents who marries an Indian heiress and makes a fortune of his own…
…a polished urban southerner who wins over the voters of rural North Yorkshire…
…and a cautious, fiscally conservative financier who has become the biggest-spending Chancellor in history”.
Here is the link to the registration page for the event, which will take place this Thursday, November 12, at 19.00.
The second extract from the Mail on Sunday‘s serialisation of Going for Broke is published today.


conservativehome--2020-11-08--WATCH: Build Back…Greener. The Prime Minister makes the best of America’s election news

# Marr asks Democrat Senator and close friend of Joe Biden , Chris Coons , how the President-elect ’ s @ @ @ @ @ # Election2020 https : //t.co/hNrSK2ckVq pic.twitter.com/Mgo7paRE7B

#Marr asks Democrat Senator and close friend of Joe Biden, Chris Coons, how the President-elect’s camp views PM Boris Johnson#Election2020 https://t.co/hNrSK2ckVq pic.twitter.com/Mgo7paRE7B
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) November 8, 2020


conservativehome--2020-11-08--WATCH: Biden ally talks up Johnson relationship


conservativehome--2020-11-09--There is more to America’s elections than Biden, and the Grand Old Party is in fine electoral form

It ’ s possible to believe both that Joe Biden has won America ’ s presidential election and that the final result is not yet clear .
( Arizona , Georgia , Pennsylvania , Nevada and North Carolina are still counting , though we believe that Donald Trump won ’ t win all of them , and that it will be surprising if he now wins any state other than North Carolina . )
So snap assessments are very risky .
All the same , it ’ s clear that Bidenmania on Britain ’ s Left is obscuring the strong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least from the view of those who follow the mainstream media .
The Grand Old Party is in fine electoral form .
Start with Trump .
Yes , he joins Jimmy Carter and George Herbert Walker Bush as a one-term president .
But , assuming that he holds North Carolina , he will end up with 229 electoral college votes : Bush won 168 and Carter 49 .
That would represent the fifth best losing total for a candidate of either party and the second best for the Republican one since the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won 240 such votes in 1976 . )
You prefer to count the popular vote ?
More than 70 million people cast their ballots for Trump – the second-highest tally in America ’ s history , beaten only by…Biden .
The exit polling also suggests that he gained among minority voters – black , Latino , Asian and ( especially ) gay ones , with white women preferring him to Biden by 55 to 43 per cent .
Now move on to the Senate .
Yes , the Democrats may gain control of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two runoff elections in Georgia .
But the numbers are very tight .
They need three wins to get a majority : to date , they ’ ve won two seats and lost one .
The Republicans have gained one and lost two .
On paper , control of the Senate would give the Democrats the power to confirm judicial and government appointments .
In practice , even a small majority would cramp Biden ’ s room for manoeuvre .
And even if the Democrats gain one now they could lose it mid-term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It holds 213 Democrats and 199 Republicans .
But here , the electoral story so far has been the reverse of the Senate ’ s : the Republicans are up ( winning eight seats and losing two ) and the Democrats are down ( winning two seats and losing seven ) .
Finally , 29 of the 50 states have Republican-controlled legislatures .
And in America , these control the redrawing each decade of Congressional district boundaries .
The Democrats have just made a big push to get control of more and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ voter fraud , they complain of district gerrymandering .
That ’ s a rough and ready picture of the Democrats having done less well as the elections moved “ down ballot ” .
Up top , Biden performed very creditably .
Lower down , the Republicans are well-entrenched , while also providing a narrow majority of state governors – 26 to 24 .
Today ’ s Guardian finds the Democrats “ anxious and uncertain after unexpected losses ” , with the party ’ s left and centre at loggerheads about culture , electoral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uncertain position for a newly-elected president who will be almost 82 in 2024 , and so is widely expected to serve a single term only .
Donald Trump has not yet left the White ( and will presumably have to be dragged out of it ) , but other Republicans will already be eyeing the curtains : possible future candidates from the Trump administration include Mike Pompeo , the Secretary of State , Nikki Haley , America ’ s former Ambassador to the United Nations…and Donald Trump junior .
A Republican source also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ governors , Kristi Noem of South Dakota and , if he ’ s interested , Greg Abbott of Texas , who chairs the Republican Governors Association .
And from the Senate , Josh Hawley of Missouri and Ben Sasse of Nebraska ; from the House , Dan Crenshaw of Texas .
But it ’ s anyone ’ s guess .
At any rate , it is far from impossible that the Republican candidate gains the White House in 2024 , and that Boris Johnson holds on to Downing Street when the next election @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Conservatives to renew their interest in and connections with the Republicans .
The two parties have come adrift for three main reasons .
Britain and America ’ s election cycles have drifted apart since the days of Reagan and Thatcher , the old Bush and Major .
George W Bush came in with Tony Blair still in place .
David Cameron took office to find himself working with Barak Obama .
Iain Duncan Smith sought to draw from Bush ’ s “ compassionate conservatism ” when he was the Tory leader .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ long and Michael Howard fell out with Bush over Iraq .
Next , the Republicans began to develop a different flavour to the Conservatives on flag , faith and family in the wake of communism ’ s collapse .
Then , finally , there was Trump – who was never likely to find Theresa May to his taste , and whose relations with Boris Johnson have been less warm than both their opponents like to imagine .
What do the two parties have to say to each other ?
Easier bits first .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ there ’ s no going back , ” one source told ConservativeHome .
“ This is no longer the party of Mitt Romney or the old establishment.
” That will sound daunting to many Conservatives .
But there ’ s a rough crossover , or should be , between Trump ’ s blue collarism and “ levelling up ” .
Family , work and religion will surely have mattered in this election to Latinos and others , who will have been horrified by the scenes from America ’ s cities .
British conservatism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( indeed , it isn ’ t at all ) .
But with the United States the epicentre of wokery , the two parties have a values overlap .
On foreign affairs , the two parties will increasingly see eye to eye on China ; British Tories are more worked up about Russia and America ’ s Republicans about Iran – though Tobias Ellwood and some 80 other Conservative MPs recently suggested that the Government should get tougher on the regime .
The harder bits include climate change and international institutions .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meeting of minds : almost two-thirds of Party members , according to our members panel , don ’ t believe that there ’ s a climate emergency .
Trump is suspicious of international institutions and Johnson is supportive of them – except in the case ( of course ) of the EU .
But there ought to be some common ground : the World Health Organisation , after all , has been close to China during Coronavirus .
On international trade , there will be work to do , as on NATO – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then some , about the commitment of some of our allies .
The new Republican Party is likely to maintain its sense of America First , but that doesn ’ t have to mean no-one else gets a look-in at all .
We ’ re told that there ’ s interest in Bidenland about the concept of a D10 – an alliance of democracies to help contain China .
And so there should be in a more internationally-engaged Republic Party .
Whose emergence , in the wake of a strong set of electoral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in encouraging .

It’s possible to believe both that Joe Biden has won America’s presidential election and that the final result is not yet clear. (Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina are still counting, though we believe that Donald Trump won’t win all of them, and that it will be surprising if he now wins any state other than North Carolina.)
So snap assessments are very risky. All the same, it’s clear that Bidenmania on Britain’s Left is obscuring the strong position of America’s Right – at least from the view of those who follow the mainstream media. The Grand Old Party is in fine electoral form.
Start with Trump. Yes, he joins Jimmy Carter and George Herbert Walker Bush as a one-term president. But, assuming that he holds North Carolina, he will end up with 229 electoral college votes: Bush won 168 and Carter 49.
That would represent the fifth best losing total for a candidate of either party and the second best for the Republican one since the Second World War. (Gerald Ford won 240 such votes in 1976.) You prefer to count the popular vote? More than 70 million people cast their ballots for Trump – the second-highest tally in America’s history, beaten only by…Biden. The exit polling also suggests that he gained among minority voters – black, Latino, Asian and (especially) gay ones, with white women preferring him to Biden by 55 to 43 per cent.
Now move on to the Senate. Yes, the Democrats may gain control of it in January if they then win two runoff elections in Georgia. But the numbers are very tight. They need three wins to get a majority: to date, they’ve won two seats and lost one. The Republicans have gained one and lost two.
On paper, control of the Senate would give the Democrats the power to confirm judicial and government appointments. In practice, even a small majority would cramp Biden’s room for manoeuvre. And even if the Democrats gain one now they could lose it mid-term.
Next, the House of Representatives. It holds 213 Democrats and 199 Republicans. But here, the electoral story so far has been the reverse of the Senate’s: the Republicans are up (winning eight seats and losing two) and the Democrats are down (winning two seats and losing seven).
Finally, 29 of the 50 states have Republican-controlled legislatures. And in America, these control the redrawing each decade of Congressional district boundaries. The Democrats have just made a big push to get control of more and have failed. And while Trump alleges voter fraud, they complain of district gerrymandering.
That’s a rough and ready picture of the Democrats having done less well as the elections moved “down ballot”. Up top, Biden performed very creditably. Lower down, the Republicans are well-entrenched, while also providing a narrow majority of state governors – 26 to 24.
Today’s Guardian finds the Democrats “anxious and uncertain after unexpected losses”, with the party’s left and centre at loggerheads about culture, electoral strategy and campagning. It is an uncertain position for a newly-elected president who will be almost 82 in 2024, and so is widely expected to serve a single term only.
Donald Trump has not yet left the White (and will presumably have to be dragged out of it), but other Republicans will already be eyeing the curtains: possible future candidates from the Trump administration include Mike Pompeo, the Secretary of State, Nikki Haley, America’s former Ambassador to the United Nations…and Donald Trump junior.
A Republican source also floated, from the ranks of the governors, Kristi Noem of South Dakota and, if he’s interested, Greg Abbott of Texas, who chairs the Republican Governors Association. And from the Senate, Josh Hawley of Missouri and Ben Sasse of Nebraska; from the House, Dan Crenshaw of Texas. But it’s anyone’s guess.
At any rate, it is far from impossible that the Republican candidate gains the White House in 2024, and that Boris Johnson holds on to Downing Street when the next election comes. It’s time for the Conservatives to renew their interest in and connections with the Republicans.
The two parties have come adrift for three main reasons. Britain and America’s election cycles have drifted apart since the days of Reagan and Thatcher, the old Bush and Major. George W Bush came in with Tony Blair still in place. David Cameron took office to find himself working with Barak Obama.
Iain Duncan Smith sought to draw from Bush’s “compassionate conservatism” when he was the Tory leader. But that didn’t last very long and Michael Howard fell out with Bush over Iraq. Next, the Republicans began to develop a different flavour to the Conservatives on flag, faith and family in the wake of communism’s collapse.
Then, finally, there was Trump – who was never likely to find Theresa May to his taste, and whose relations with Boris Johnson have been less warm than both their opponents like to imagine. What do the two parties have to say to each other? Easier bits first.
“Trump has changed the Republicans and there’s no going back,” one source told ConservativeHome. “This is no longer the party of Mitt Romney or the old establishment.” That will sound daunting to many Conservatives. But there’s a rough crossover, or should be, between Trump’s blue collarism and “levelling up”.
Family, work and religion will surely have mattered in this election to Latinos and others, who will have been horrified by the scenes from America’s cities. British conservatism is less preoccupied with abortion and guns (indeed, it isn’t at all). But with the United States the epicentre of wokery, the two parties have a values overlap.
On foreign affairs, the two parties will increasingly see eye to eye on China; British Tories are more worked up about Russia and America’s Republicans about Iran – though Tobias Ellwood and some 80 other Conservative MPs recently suggested that the Government should get tougher on the regime. The harder bits include climate change and international institutions. But even here, there is sometimes a meeting of minds: almost two-thirds of Party members, according to our members panel, don’t believe that there’s a climate emergency.
Trump is suspicious of international institutions and Johnson is supportive of them – except in the case (of course) of the EU.
But there ought to be some common ground: the World Health Organisation, after all, has been close to China during Coronavirus. On international trade, there will be work to do, as on NATO – where Trump has a point, and then some, about the commitment of some of our allies.
The new Republican Party is likely to maintain its sense of America First, but that doesn’t have to mean no-one else gets a look-in at all. We’re told that there’s interest in Bidenland about the concept of a D10 – an alliance of democracies to help contain China.
And so there should be in a more internationally-engaged Republic Party. Whose emergence, in the wake of a strong set of electoral results, we’ve an interest in encouraging.


conservativehome--2020-11-09--Please join Lord Ashcroft this week for the launch of his biography of Rishi Sunak

The ToryDiary below was published on this site yesterday .
This is a morning in which to celebrate unifying , popular , national leadership – and politicians who bring people together rather than divide them .
It is in that spirit that we draw our readers ’ attention to Rishi Sunak , the most popular politician in the country , and the man who now consistently tops our regular ConservativeHome Cabinet League Table .
How has he managed it , what happens next – and who is he ?
Later this week , I will be trying to find out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s proprietor , for the launch of his new book – a biography of the Chancellor : Going for Broke .
You are also invited to this live Zoom event , during which “ Lord Ashcroft will give an exclusive insight into his study of the Chancellor ’ s life , and answer questions submitted by you , the viewers ” .
So please do register via the link below for your free ticket as we explore the story of “ a super-bright and hard-grafting son of immigrant parents who marries an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his own… …a polished urban southerner who wins over the voters of rural North Yorkshire… …and a cautious , fiscally conservative financier who has become the biggest-spending Chancellor in history ” .
Here is the link to the registration page for the event , which will take place this Thursday , November 12 , at 19.00 .
The second extract from the Mail on Sunday ‘ s serialisation of Going for Broke is published today .

The ToryDiary below was published on this site earlier this week.
– – –
This is a morning in which to celebrate unifying, popular, national leadership – and politicians who bring people together rather than divide them.
It is in that spirit that we draw our readers’ attention to Rishi Sunak, the most popular politician in the country, and the man who now consistently tops our regular ConservativeHome Cabinet League Table.
How has he managed it, what happens next – and who is he? Later this week, I will be trying to find out as I join Lord Ashcroft, ConservativeHome’s proprietor, for the launch of his new book – a biography of the Chancellor: Going for Broke.
You are also invited to this live Zoom event, during which “Lord Ashcroft will give an exclusive insight into his study of the Chancellor’s life, and answer questions submitted by you, the viewers”.
So please do register via the link below for your free ticket as we explore the story of “a super-bright and hard-grafting son of immigrant parents who marries an Indian heiress and makes a fortune of his own…
…a polished urban southerner who wins over the voters of rural North Yorkshire…
…and a cautious, fiscally conservative financier who has become the biggest-spending Chancellor in history”.
Here is the link to the registration page for the event, which will take place this Thursday, November 12, at 19.00.
The second extract from the Mail on Sunday‘s serialisation of Going for Broke is published today.


conservativehome--2020-11-09--Richard Holden: The age at which National Lottery games can be played should be raised to 18

For me as a new Member of Parliament , my first Remembrance Sunday is certainly not a day that I ’ ll ever forget .
The knowledge that there ’ s a strong possibility that , at some point , I may be called upon to vote about sending British troops into conflict becomes very real when you see names carved in stone or cast in bronze above where you lay your wreath to remember the fallen on behalf of your constituents .
War or no war is clearly the biggest decision that a state can make .
For MPs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ extend to everything between these momentous calls to voting on much more every-day matters – and everything between .
It is a responsibility that no MP I know , from any party , takes lightly .
The Conservative Manifesto I was elected on touched on many areas , but one of those somewhere between war and the mundane was a pledge that , if elected , we would launch a review of the regulation of gambling laws .
Back in July , James Wild and I led the Public Accounts Committee investigation into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the industry regulator and did a joint piece for ConservativeHome on our thoughts then .
Since that point , things have moved at pace .
The House of Lords has done a superb and wide-ranging report into all aspects of gambling – and has now signed up 150 peers to champion it from across the House .
The All-Party Parliamentary Group ( APPG ) on Gambling Related Harm has launched its own report hitting at many areas of concern , including advertising and sport .
And our Public Accounts Committee report has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ favourably ) by the Government .
These moves , alongside increasing interest from the media and , rumour has it , a will from inside Government point to a review into the regulation of gambling , which , when it comes , will be wide-ranging , which is very welcome .
Like many readers , my desire to go out and about and meet friends has been dramatically curtailed by the latest national restrictions and I have found myself , late of an evening in front of the TV much more than I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adverts has really struck me and , as I ’ ve flicked between channels and , ahead of the wide-ranging review , I have become more convinced that swift action is necessary , and think there is one move that the Government should make before others .
This is to tackle under-18 gambling .
One of the biggest loopholes – and easiest to close – it appears to me is the ‘ Lottery Loophole ’ .
This was re-enforced to me this week in an APPG evidence session from the National Lottery .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ other aspects of the gambling market because , traditionally , they ’ ve been very different beasts .
Small stakes , long-odds , and a time delay of days between the bet and the result .
However , I ’ m afraid things have changed a lot since the launch of the weekly draw in 1994 .
It could be you !
was the lottery ’ s slogan then .
Most people remember paying £1 for a pink piece of paper that got put in a wallet , purse , drawer or pocket @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it was headline news that someone hadn ’ t claimed the jackpot .
And back in 1994 , the weekly draw lottery had an age limit of 16 .
It has clearly raised vast fortunes for various good causes , and ensured a healthy profit for its operator throughout , Camelot .
Since then , however , things have changed dramatically .
The advent of instant win games has not just turned up the dial , it has flipped the lottery into becoming a different beast altogether .
First , scratchcards and now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dial far from the ‘ bit of fun ’ to more than a bit of a problem .
Together , scratchcards and online instant win now make up almost as much in revenue terms as the four weekly ( two lottery and two Euromillions ) draws combined .
The Lottery tried to skirt around the subject , but scratchcards and online instant win are fixed odds gambling .
And for clarity , the term instant win is clearly a misnomer as , with returns of c.50 per cent , even if you do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s essentially instant loss .
The Lottery says that it has very small numbers of 16 and 17-year-old players , but the truth is that they really don ’ t know , because there is no real age breakdown from retail sales of scratchcards .
More important still is that all Lottery players , of whatever age , are able to spend £350 a week online .
It seems clear to me that allowing 16 and 17-year-olds ( who we now require to be in education at least part time until they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fixed odds online gambling – and obviously unlimited sums in retailers – is madness .
We ’ ve raised the age at which you do everything from buy cigarettes to the age at which you can serve on the front line to 18 , and therefore it appears perverse that we allow the spending of such large amounts by 16 and 17-year-olds .
Given that the Lottery doesn ’ t seem to understand that continuing to allow this is seriously tarnishing its brand and its reputation as “ a bit of fun that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and is unwilling to call for it ’ s licence to be changed itself , it ’ s time for MPs to act to save the good from the bad .
The Government has already had a call for evidence on under-18 gambling and we ’ re awaiting it to publish its plans .
Without needing to be part of the broader review of gambling , I believe that the case is clear for raising the age at which you can play National Lottery games to 18 .
Ahead of launching the review @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Government to crack-on with measures that crack-down on this sort of instant-loss gambling which exposes young people to the potential of losing hundreds of pounds a week .
“ When the facts change , I change my mind – what do you do ?
” – as has been said .
Well , facts about the Lottery have changed substantially since it came into being more than a quarter of a century ago .
Instant win and online has replaced the sedate once-weekly draw .
The Lottery ’ s defence is that this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but where – or more specifically who – you ’ re getting that cash from really does matter .
I don ’ t think it should be from the pockets of 16 and 17-year-olds gambling up to £350 a week on instant win games .
This quick and relatively easy change to the licence of the Lottery could happen within a matter of weeks .
It has already got plans in place if it does .
All it needs now is for the Government to act to protect under-18s from potentially serious gambling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ think the Government can be guaranteed overwhelming support for and one I ’ m very happy to help them make .

Castleside Old Church Yard, Consett, County Durham
For me as a new Member of Parliament, my first Remembrance Sunday is certainly not a day that I’ll ever forget.
The knowledge that there’s a strong possibility that, at some point, I may be called upon to vote about sending British troops into conflict becomes very real when you see names carved in stone or cast in bronze above where you lay your wreath to remember the fallen on behalf of your constituents.
War or no war is clearly the biggest decision that a state can make. For MPs though, decisions and votes in Parliament extend to everything between these momentous calls to voting on much more every-day matters – and everything between. It is a responsibility that no MP I know, from any party, takes lightly.
The Conservative Manifesto I was elected on touched on many areas, but one of those somewhere between war and the mundane was a pledge that, if elected, we would launch a review of the regulation of gambling laws.
Back in July, James Wild and I led the Public Accounts Committee investigation into the role of the Gambling Commission, the industry regulator and did a joint piece for ConservativeHome on our thoughts then.
Since that point, things have moved at pace. The House of Lords has done a superb and wide-ranging report into all aspects of gambling – and has now signed up 150 peers to champion it from across the House.
The All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Gambling Related Harm has launched its own report hitting at many areas of concern, including advertising and sport.
And our Public Accounts Committee report has been published and been responded to (generally favourably) by the Government. These moves, alongside increasing interest from the media and, rumour has it, a will from inside Government point to a review into the regulation of gambling, which, when it comes, will be wide-ranging, which is very welcome.
Like many readers, my desire to go out and about and meet friends has been dramatically curtailed by the latest national restrictions and I have found myself, late of an evening in front of the TV much more than I normally would.
The preponderance of gambling adverts has really struck me and, as I’ve flicked between channels and, ahead of the wide-ranging review, I have become more convinced that swift action is necessary, and think there is one move that the Government should make before others. This is to tackle under-18 gambling.
One of the biggest loopholes – and easiest to close – it appears to me is the ‘Lottery Loophole’. This was re-enforced to me this week in an APPG evidence session from the National Lottery.
Currently, lotteries are regulated differently to other aspects of the gambling market because, traditionally, they’ve been very different beasts. Small stakes, long-odds, and a time delay of days between the bet and the result. However, I’m afraid things have changed a lot since the launch of the weekly draw in 1994.
It could be you! was the lottery’s slogan then. Most people remember paying £1 for a pink piece of paper that got put in a wallet, purse, drawer or pocket and then was madly searched for when it was headline news that someone hadn’t claimed the jackpot.
And back in 1994, the weekly draw lottery had an age limit of 16. It has clearly raised vast fortunes for various good causes, and ensured a healthy profit for its operator throughout, Camelot. Since then, however, things have changed dramatically.
The advent of instant win games has not just turned up the dial, it has flipped the lottery into becoming a different beast altogether. First, scratchcards and now instant win online games have moved the dial far from the ‘bit of fun’ to more than a bit of a problem. Together, scratchcards and online instant win now make up almost as much in revenue terms as the four weekly (two lottery and two Euromillions) draws combined.
The Lottery tried to skirt around the subject, but scratchcards and online instant win are fixed odds gambling. And for clarity, the term instant win is clearly a misnomer as, with returns of c.50 per cent, even if you do win, keep playing and it’s essentially instant loss.
The Lottery says that it has very small numbers of 16 and 17-year-old players, but the truth is that they really don’t know, because there is no real age breakdown from retail sales of scratchcards. More important still is that all Lottery players, of whatever age, are able to spend £350 a week online.
It seems clear to me that allowing 16 and 17-year-olds (who we now require to be in education at least part time until they’re 18) to lose £350/week in fixed odds online gambling – and obviously unlimited sums in retailers – is madness. We’ve raised the age at which you do everything from buy cigarettes to the age at which you can serve on the front line to 18, and therefore it appears perverse that we allow the spending of such large amounts by 16 and 17-year-olds.
Given that the Lottery doesn’t seem to understand that continuing to allow this is seriously tarnishing its brand and its reputation as “a bit of fun that raises cash for good causes”, and is unwilling to call for it’s licence to be changed itself, it’s time for MPs to act to save the good from the bad.
The Government has already had a call for evidence on under-18 gambling and we’re awaiting it to publish its plans. Without needing to be part of the broader review of gambling, I believe that the case is clear for raising the age at which you can play National Lottery games to 18. Ahead of launching the review, it’s time for the Government to crack-on with measures that crack-down on this sort of instant-loss gambling which exposes young people to the potential of losing hundreds of pounds a week.
“When the facts change, I change my mind – what do you do?” – as has been said. Well, facts about the Lottery have changed substantially since it came into being more than a quarter of a century ago. Instant win and online has replaced the sedate once-weekly draw.
The Lottery’s defence is that this all means more cash for good causes but where – or more specifically who – you’re getting that cash from really does matter. I don’t think it should be from the pockets of 16 and 17-year-olds gambling up to £350 a week on instant win games.
This quick and relatively easy change to the licence of the Lottery could happen within a matter of weeks. It has already got plans in place if it does. All it needs now is for the Government to act to protect under-18s from potentially serious gambling harm. This is one decision I think the Government can be guaranteed overwhelming support for and one I’m very happy to help them make.


conservativehome--2020-11-09--Shaun Bailey: Let us remember the sacrifices made from across the Commonwealth for our freedom

Shaun Bailey is a member of the London Assembly and the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London .
Everything about Remembrance Sunday was a little bit different this year .
Crowds were smaller .
Events were socially distanced .
The trials of the last few months hovered at the back of our minds .
But that doesn ’ t mean the day itself was any less meaningful .
In fact , when the country fell silent and the bells started to toll , I believe there was an even greater depth of emotion .
It was a chance to remind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making — staying at home , protecting the NHS , not seeing friends and family — are large by themselves , but nothing compared to the sacrifices our grandparents and great-grandparents made .
Nothing , in fact , compared to the sacrifices our soldiers make every day .
After all , what we ’ re going through now is not a new normal for our men and women in uniform : it ’ s the old normal .
On any given year , they have to go months without seeing their families .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ bigger than any one person .
They tragically lose friends and colleagues .
And despite everything , they pull together , look out for one another , and emerge victorious .
They set an example for all of us as we deal with coronavirus and lockdown .
They also show us the kind of country we are .
Britain today is multiethnic , multiracial , varied in every possible way .
And that has always been represented in our army , which throughout history has been made up of people from different races @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UK and from the Commonwealth .
What unites our soldiers is their belief in Britain — their selfless determination to defend our country and protect our freedoms .
My grandad is one of the soldiers I thought about yesterday .
Born and raised in Jamaica , he went on to fight for Britain in the Second World War .
He ’ s the reason I ’ m here today .
His belief that Britain was a country worth fighting for , worth giving up your life for if necessary , helped to shape @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He also inspired my mum to sign me up for the Army Cadets , a decision that changed my life .
I went from being a difficult kid to being a disciplined kid .
The Army Cadets taught me that expectations are important , that you should never worry about failing as long as you get back up and give it another shot .
The Army Cadets continue to play a huge role in my life — and it ’ s all thanks to the example my grandad set .
Not that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s the story of countless Commonwealth soldiers .
The Sikhs and Muslims who fought heroically for Britain in the First and Second World Wars .
The Hindus who served in the Burma Campaign .
The countless Africans and Caribbeans commemorated at the African and Caribbean War Memorial in Brixton .
These are some of the many people I paid tribute to on Sunday .
And many of those same Sikhs , Muslims , Hindus , Africans , and Caribbeans made the bold decision to uproot their lives and move to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did .
Without a doubt , we are better off as a result of their decisions , and not just economically .
Commonwealth citizens enriched our culture and , as we ’ ve seen over the last few months , they ’ re still on the frontlines today , saving lives by battling coronavirus .
Look at the British Asian entrepreneurs helping to keep London ’ s high streets alive .
Look at their influence on our culture — from curry houses to our language itself .
Look at the massive contribution made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Caribbeans every day — including my mum , who works for the NHS .
This is modern Britain .
And it proves that the Commonwealth isn ’ t just an organisation we ’ re part of ; the Commonwealth is who we are .
That ’ s something to be grateful for , and not just on Remembrance Sunday .
The fact that we are a nation of all colours and religions , all races and backgrounds ; a nation that can come together as one to defeat our enemies , whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ form of a virus .
It ’ s also a lesson in working together .
We know that coronavirus has caused mental health issues for people across the country .
We know that lockdown will be tough .
But we also know we can get through it — if we get through it together .
So whatever you ’ re doing and wherever you are , I hope you found renewed meaning in the Remembrance events yesterday .
In these difficult times , ‘ lest we forget ’ is a more powerful message @ @ @

Shaun Bailey is a member of the London Assembly and the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London.
Everything about Remembrance Sunday was a little bit different this year. Crowds were smaller. Events were socially distanced. The trials of the last few months hovered at the back of our minds.
But that doesn’t mean the day itself was any less meaningful. In fact, when the country fell silent and the bells started to toll, I believe there was an even greater depth of emotion. It was a chance to remind ourselves that the sacrifices we’re making — staying at home, protecting the NHS, not seeing friends and family — are large by themselves, but nothing compared to the sacrifices our grandparents and great-grandparents made. Nothing, in fact, compared to the sacrifices our soldiers make every day.
After all, what we’re going through now is not a new normal for our men and women in uniform: it’s the old normal. On any given year, they have to go months without seeing their families. They suspend their lives for a cause bigger than any one person. They tragically lose friends and colleagues. And despite everything, they pull together, look out for one another, and emerge victorious. They set an example for all of us as we deal with coronavirus and lockdown.
They also show us the kind of country we are. Britain today is multiethnic, multiracial, varied in every possible way. And that has always been represented in our army, which throughout history has been made up of people from different races, religions and backgrounds; from the UK and from the Commonwealth. What unites our soldiers is their belief in Britain — their selfless determination to defend our country and protect our freedoms.
My grandad is one of the soldiers I thought about yesterday. Born and raised in Jamaica, he went on to fight for Britain in the Second World War. He’s the reason I’m here today. His belief that Britain was a country worth fighting for, worth giving up your life for if necessary, helped to shape my views from a very young age.
He also inspired my mum to sign me up for the Army Cadets, a decision that changed my life. I went from being a difficult kid to being a disciplined kid. The Army Cadets taught me that expectations are important, that you should never worry about failing as long as you get back up and give it another shot. The Army Cadets continue to play a huge role in my life — and it’s all thanks to the example my grandad set.
Not that my grandad’s story is unique. It’s the story of countless Commonwealth soldiers. The Sikhs and Muslims who fought heroically for Britain in the First and Second World Wars. The Hindus who served in the Burma Campaign. The countless Africans and Caribbeans commemorated at the African and Caribbean War Memorial in Brixton. These are some of the many people I paid tribute to on Sunday.
And many of those same Sikhs, Muslims, Hindus, Africans, and Caribbeans made the bold decision to uproot their lives and move to our country — just like my family did. Without a doubt, we are better off as a result of their decisions, and not just economically. Commonwealth citizens enriched our culture and, as we’ve seen over the last few months, they’re still on the frontlines today, saving lives by battling coronavirus.
Look at the British Asian entrepreneurs helping to keep London’s high streets alive. Look at their influence on our culture — from curry houses to our language itself. Look at the massive contribution made to London’s hospitals by Africans and Caribbeans every day — including my mum, who works for the NHS. This is modern Britain. And it proves that the Commonwealth isn’t just an organisation we’re part of; the Commonwealth is who we are.
That’s something to be grateful for, and not just on Remembrance Sunday. The fact that we are a nation of all colours and religions, all races and backgrounds; a nation that can come together as one to defeat our enemies, whether they appear in jackboots or in the form of a virus.
It’s also a lesson in working together. We know that coronavirus has caused mental health issues for people across the country. We know that lockdown will be tough. But we also know we can get through it — if we get through it together.
So whatever you’re doing and wherever you are, I hope you found renewed meaning in the Remembrance events yesterday. In these difficult times, ‘lest we forget’ is a more powerful message than ever.


conservativehome--2020-11-09--Calling Conservatives: New public appointments announced. Commissioner for Public Appointments – and

Calling Conservatives: New public appointments announced. Commissioner for Public Appointments – and more

Eight years ago , the TaxPayers ’ Alliance reported that “ in the last year , five times more Labour people were appointed to public bodies than Tories ” .
It currently reports that almost half of avowedly political appointees last year owed their allegiance to Labour Party , compared to less than a third for the Conservatives .
Despite the selection of some Party members or supporters to fill important posts , over time , the Conservatives have punched beneath their weight when it comes to public appointments .
One of the reasons seems to be that Tories simply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number as Labour supporters .
To help remedy this , each week we put up links to some of the main public appointments vacancies , so that qualified Conservatives can be aware of the opportunities presented .
“ The Chair will provide strong and effective leadership of the Commission in the fulfilment of its remit .
The Chair of CHM has to lead an expert science advisory committee whose principal tasks are to advise the Licensing Authority ( the UK Health Ministers ) and its executive arm , the Medicines and Healthcare products @ @ @ @ @ @ @ matters relating to human medicinal products including the licensing of medicines that are safe , efficacious and of good quality .
The Chair needs to be able to synthesize complex information and present it authoritatively to ministers as required .
They have to be able to master a very wide range of medical and pharmacological issues , many of which would be out of any one practitioner ’ s area of expertise , and chair to consensus a commission which comprises a range of eminent medical experts and some lay members.
” Remuneration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We are looking for an outstanding individual with demonstrable leadership skills and a passion for the media and public broadcasting , to represent the public interest in the BBC and maintain the Corporation ’ s independence .
As per the BBC Royal Charter , the Chair of the BBC Board must be appointed by Order in Council following a fair and open competition .
The Governance Code , including the public appointment principles , must be followed in making the appointment .
The Commissioner for Public Appointments will ensure that the appointment is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Candidates should be aware that the preferred candidate for the post of Chair will be required to appear before a Parliamentary Select Committee prior to appointment.
” Time : 3-4 days per week ( Chair ) / Up to 2 days per week .
“ The Secretary of State is seeking to appoint four Independent Members to the CCW Board .
The primary role of CCW ’ s Independent Board Members is to contribute to the good governance of the organisation by bringing wide experience and critical detachment to the work of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lead role in an area of CCW ’ s strategic work or its campaigns and work closely with members of the Executive Team and employees in this area .
Examples of lead areas include engagement and communication , vulnerable consumers and improving water regulation for consumers .
The Essential Criteria section later in this document includes the ‘ additional expertise ’ that CCW is looking for from successful candidates to enhance and complement the Board ’ s existing strengths .
CCW ’ s Code of Governance sets out more details on the operation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ includes more detail on the role of Board Members.
” “ As the independent regulator of public appointments made by ministers in the UK and Welsh governments , the Commissioner ’ s statutory functions are set out in the Public Appointments Order in Council 2019 .
The Order in Council also sets out those bodies and posts that are within the Commissioner ’ s regulatory remit .
The Commissioner ’ s primary role is to provide independent assurance that public appointments are made in accordance with the Governance Code for Public Appointments , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The new Commissioner will need to work closely with a number of stakeholders including ( but not limited to ) UK and Welsh Government Ministers , Chairs of public bodies , senior officials/accounting officers in departments and officials in the Cabinet Office ’ s Public Appointments Policy team.
” “ The Prime Minister ’ s Council for Science and Technology ( CST ) is the Government ’ s top-level advisory body on science and technology issues .
It reports directly to the Prime Minister on matters of science and technology that cut across @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is co-chaired by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser and an independent appointee .
The SARS-CoV-2 ( Covid-19 ) pandemic has highlighted the importance of science and technology in facing a challenge of such epic proportions , and in building a robust , sustainable , and equitable recovery plan for the UK , post Covid .
The Government is seeking to appoint a new Independent Co-Chair for the Council for Science and Technology .
The Government will appoint an Independent Co-Chair who will share responsibility for chairing the Council with the Government Chief Scientific @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Insolvency Service is an Executive Agency of the Department for Business , Energy and Industrial Strategy , responsible for helping to deliver economic confidence by supporting those in financial distress , tackling financial wrongdoing and maximising returns to creditors .
It employs around 1,700 staff operating from 22 locations across Great Britain .
We are seeking to appoint a new Chair of the Insolvency Service Board to lead the organisation as it takes forward its programme of transformation , delivers key Government commitments , and continues its record of strong performance against @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Covid-19 pandemic… Headed by the non-executive Chair , the Board currently comprises a mix of Executive and Non-Executive Directors .
The Board is collectively responsible for the oversight of the operation of the Insolvency Service , with particular emphasis on its strategic direction , management controls , and corporate governance.
” “ We are seeking to appoint a new Chair of the Royal Mint Advisory Committee , who will play a central role in the committee ’ s task of recommending designs for United Kingdom coins , official medals , seals and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ responsible for leading numismatic design in the United Kingdom , collaborating closely with Government departments , the Royal Household and the Royal Mint .
This role will involve leading all aspects of new and innovative ways of commemorating events , individuals and symbology of national significance in numismatic form .
The chair of the RMAC will lead and guide meetings of the committee , reaching consensus on various design proposals and ultimately advise HM Treasury , other government departments and the Crown on artistic excellence in design .
The RMAC chair is responsible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ manner , acting impartially , ensuring effective governance and excellence in delivery.. ” Bank of England – External Member of the Financial Policy Committee “ The FPC is responsible for identifying , monitoring and taking action to remove or reduce systemic risks with a view to protecting and enhancing the resilience of the UK financial system .
The FPC also has a secondary objective to support the Government ’ s economic policies.The FPC has wide-ranging powers of recommendation and can direct the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority to take action @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The appointment of external members to the FPC is designed to ensure that the Committee benefits from thinking and expertise in addition to that existing inside the Bank of England , and to provide constructive challenge during the Committee ’ s deliberations .
Each member of the FPC should have expertise in the field of financial services and economics .
External members will be independent – they will not represent or lobby for individual groups , interests or sectors.
” “ The Steering Board ’ s role is to : advise on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of targets , within the framework of the UK Space Agency ’ s objectives , BEIS and wider Government objectives ; bring an external perspective to provide a strategic challenge on the business and corporate plans and review and endorse the annual report and accounts for submission by the Accounting Officer ; advise on and provide independent assessment of performance , including process of setting of targets and performance against them ; advise on major business developments which imply a significant change in the Agency ’ s role or activities and on its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and to advocate and advise in relation to the promotion and awareness of the work of the UK Space Agency with stakeholders and partners .
”

Eight years ago, the TaxPayers’ Alliance reported that “in the last year, five times more Labour people were appointed to public bodies than Tories”.
It currently reports that almost half of avowedly political appointees last year owed their allegiance to Labour Party, compared to less than a third for the Conservatives.
Despite the selection of some Party members or supporters to fill important posts, over time, the Conservatives have punched beneath their weight when it comes to public appointments. One of the reasons seems to be that Tories simply don’t apply in the same number as Labour supporters.
To help remedy this, each week we put up links to some of the main public appointments vacancies, so that qualified Conservatives can be aware of the opportunities presented.
– – – – – – – – – –
Commission on Human Medicines – Chair
“The Chair will provide strong and effective leadership of the Commission in the fulfilment of its remit. The Chair of CHM has to lead an expert science advisory committee whose principal tasks are to advise the Licensing Authority (the UK Health Ministers) and its executive arm, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), on matters relating to human medicinal products including the licensing of medicines that are safe, efficacious and of good quality. The Chair needs to be able to synthesize complex information and present it authoritatively to ministers as required. They have to be able to master a very wide range of medical and pharmacological issues, many of which would be out of any one practitioner’s area of expertise, and chair to consensus a commission which comprises a range of eminent medical experts and some lay members.”
Time: Approx. 33 days per annum.
Remuneration: Up to £500 per meeting
Closes: 10 November
– – – – – – – – – –
British Broadcasting Corporation – Chair/Member for England
“We are looking for an outstanding individual with demonstrable leadership skills and a passion for the media and public broadcasting, to represent the public interest in the BBC and maintain the Corporation’s independence. As per the BBC Royal Charter, the Chair of the BBC Board must be appointed by Order in Council following a fair and open competition. The Governance Code, including the public appointment principles, must be followed in making the appointment. The Commissioner for Public Appointments will ensure that the appointment is made in accordance with the Governance Code. Candidates should be aware that the preferred candidate for the post of Chair will be required to appear before a Parliamentary Select Committee prior to appointment.”
Time: 3-4 days per week (Chair) / Up to 2 days per week.
Remuneration: £160,000 (Chair) / £33,000 per annum, +£5,000 for committee chairs, reasonable expenses (Member)
Closes: 11 November
– – – – – – – – – –
Consumer Council for Water – Independent Board Members
“The Secretary of State is seeking to appoint four Independent Members to the CCW Board. The primary role of CCW’s Independent Board Members is to contribute to the good governance of the organisation by bringing wide experience and critical detachment to the work of the Board. Board Members take a lead role in an area of CCW’s strategic work or its campaigns and work closely with members of the Executive Team and employees in this area. Examples of lead areas include engagement and communication, vulnerable consumers and improving water regulation for consumers. The Essential Criteria section later in this document includes the ‘additional expertise’ that CCW is looking for from successful candidates to enhance and complement the Board’s existing strengths. CCW’s Code of Governance sets out more details on the operation of the Board and its Committees and includes more detail on the role of Board Members.”
Time: Three days per month.
Remuneration: £11,718 per annum.
Closes: 16 November
– – – – – – – – – –
Commissioner for Public Appointments
“As the independent regulator of public appointments made by ministers in the UK and Welsh governments, the Commissioner’s statutory functions are set out in the Public Appointments Order in Council 2019. The Order in Council also sets out those bodies and posts that are within the Commissioner’s regulatory remit. The Commissioner’s primary role is to provide independent assurance that public appointments are made in accordance with the Governance Code for Public Appointments, including the Principles of Public Appointments. The new Commissioner will need to work closely with a number of stakeholders including (but not limited to) UK and Welsh Government Ministers, Chairs of public bodies, senior officials/accounting officers in departments and officials in the Cabinet Office’s Public Appointments Policy team.”
Time: 2 days per week on average.
Remuneration: £56,000 per annum.
Closes: 22 November
– – – – – – – – – –
Prime Minister’s Council for Science and Technology – Co-Chair
“The Prime Minister’s Council for Science and Technology (CST) is the Government’s top-level advisory body on science and technology issues. It reports directly to the Prime Minister on matters of science and technology that cut across the responsibilities of government departments. It is co-chaired by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser and an independent appointee. The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic has highlighted the importance of science and technology in facing a challenge of such epic proportions, and in building a robust, sustainable, and equitable recovery plan for the UK, post Covid. The Government is seeking to appoint a new Independent Co-Chair for the Council for Science and Technology. The Government will appoint an Independent Co-Chair who will share responsibility for chairing the Council with the Government Chief Scientific Adviser (GCSA).”
Time: 2-3 days per month.
Remuneration: None.
Closes: 22 November
– – – – – – – – – –
Insolvency Service – Chair
“The Insolvency Service is an Executive Agency of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, responsible for helping to deliver economic confidence by supporting those in financial distress, tackling financial wrongdoing and maximising returns to creditors. It employs around 1,700 staff operating from 22 locations across Great Britain. We are seeking to appoint a new Chair of the Insolvency Service Board to lead the organisation as it takes forward its programme of transformation, delivers key Government commitments, and continues its record of strong performance against the backdrop of an uncertain economy following the Covid-19 pandemic… Headed by the non-executive Chair, the Board currently comprises a mix of Executive and Non-Executive Directors. The Board is collectively responsible for the oversight of the operation of the Insolvency Service, with particular emphasis on its strategic direction, management controls, and corporate governance.”
Time: 20 days per annum.
Remuneration: £18,000.
Closes: 22 November
– – – – – – – – – –
Royal Mint Advisory Committee – Chair
“We are seeking to appoint a new Chair of the Royal Mint Advisory Committee, who will play a central role in the committee’s task of recommending designs for United Kingdom coins, official medals, seals and decorations. The new chair will be responsible for leading numismatic design in the United Kingdom, collaborating closely with Government departments, the Royal Household and the Royal Mint. This role will involve leading all aspects of new and innovative ways of commemorating events, individuals and symbology of national significance in numismatic form. The chair of the RMAC will lead and guide meetings of the committee, reaching consensus on various design proposals and ultimately advise HM Treasury, other government departments and the Crown on artistic excellence in design. The RMAC chair is responsible for leading the committee in an ethical manner, acting impartially, ensuring effective governance and excellence in delivery..”
Time: Six meetings per annum.
Remuneration: None.
Closes: 27 November
– – – – – – – – – –
Bank of England – External Member of the Financial Policy Committee
“The FPC is responsible for identifying, monitoring and taking action to remove or reduce systemic risks with a view to protecting and enhancing the resilience of the UK financial system. The FPC also has a secondary objective to support the Government’s economic policies.The FPC has wide-ranging powers of recommendation and can direct the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority to take action to address systemic risks to financial stability. The appointment of external members to the FPC is designed to ensure that the Committee benefits from thinking and expertise in addition to that existing inside the Bank of England, and to provide constructive challenge during the Committee’s deliberations. Each member of the FPC should have expertise in the field of financial services and economics. External members will be independent – they will not represent or lobby for individual groups, interests or sectors.”
Time: 23 days per quarter.
Remuneration: £97,200.
Closes: 29 November
– – – – – – – – – –
UK Space Agency – Non-Executive Members/Audit Chair
“The Steering Board’s role is to: advise on external drivers, strategic direction and development of targets, within the framework of the UK Space Agency’s objectives, BEIS and wider Government objectives; bring an external perspective to provide a strategic challenge on the business and corporate plans and review and endorse the annual report and accounts for submission by the Accounting Officer; advise on and provide independent assessment of performance, including process of setting of targets and performance against them; advise on major business developments which imply a significant change in the Agency’s role or activities and on its exposure to and management of risk; and to advocate and advise in relation to the promotion and awareness of the work of the UK Space Agency with stakeholders and partners.”
Time: 20/22 days per annum.
Remuneration: £8,000/10,000 per annum honorarium.
Closes: 29 November


conservativehome--2020-11-09--WATCH: Johnson strives to soothe vaccine frenzy

`` We 've cleared one significant hurdle but there are several more to go before we know the vaccine can @ @ @ @ @ Boris Johnson says `` if and when '' the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine is approved @ @ @ @ @ `` ready to start using it '' .

"We've cleared one significant hurdle but there are several more to go before we know the vaccine can be used."
PM Boris Johnson says "if and when" the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine is approved, the UK will be "ready to start using it".
Follow live: https://t.co/RngWB9jHlv pic.twitter.com/Qeb7Dqxq7Y
— SkyNews (@SkyNews) November 9, 2020


conservativehome--2020-11-09--Johnson’s capitulation to Rashford will further thin the ranks of his Commons loyalists

Following the Government ’ s latest capitulation to Marcus Rashford on the question of school meals – detailed in the weekend ’ s papers – the big question is surely what could possibly have delayed it for so long ?
When Boris Johnson initially held firm again extending free school meals through the holidays , the expectation was that he must have some alternative in mind .
But none was announced .
Nor has one apparently been found in the month since this row broke out .
Thus we find the Prime Minister timing his call to Rashford for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eclipsed by the result of the US presidential election ( which is understandable , if not dignified ) , and the Government committing to an extra £170 million in spending for which it will get no credit whatsoever .
Yet whilst this latest surrender might have eased the immediate political pressure , it seems likely that it will store up future trouble for Johnson – not least because it is now more likely that Rashford , who insists that there is “ much more to do ” , will keep coming back .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ have paid a danegeld – let alone paid it twice – you are seldom free of the Dane .
And by appearing to concede to the logic of the Government ’ s opponents , who branded it ‘ Dickensian ’ , this makes all the arguments adduced in defence of Johnson ’ s approach look like they were made in bad faith .
But the Prime Minister has also burned the fingers of Tory MPs who rode out to defend the Government line on this .
This mirrors David Cameron ’ s great @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Goodman raised with Jacob Rees-Mogg in the latest Moggcast ( during which the Leader of the House insisted no reversal was in the offing ) .
That such behaviour has long-term consequences can be seen in who stepped up to defend Johnson ’ s position in the Commons debate on free school meals last month .
Of the seven MPs whose contributions we quoted in our piece , five were of the 2019 intake .
Older , and in the event perhaps wiser , heads gave the event a wide berth .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a restive caucus , pulling the rug out from under the new intake will teach them unhelpful lessons .
And for a Prime Minister short on ideological allies , embarrassing the group of MPs whom he helped elect will only help to thin the ranks of his loyalists .
Contrary to some cynical caricatures , politicians are quite often willing to risk public anger and take , or defend , unpopular decisions .
But there are some important conditions .
The first is the belief that the policy in question is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The second is trust that their officers won ’ t abandon them in a foxhole when the going gets tough .
By folding in the manner he has , Johnson fails both tests .
He ’ s not only let his troops hand their opponents ammunition which will be thrown back in their faces until the next election , but also sent a strong signal that there is no plan behind it all .
The month delay in u-turning wasn ’ t to buy time for anything , it was simply indecision .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ Boris ’ s Boys and Girls ‘ over the top , he may find them much less willing .

Following the Government’s latest capitulation to Marcus Rashford on the question of school meals – detailed in the weekend’s papers – the big question is surely what could possibly have delayed it for so long?
When Boris Johnson initially held firm again extending free school meals through the holidays, the expectation was that he must have some alternative in mind. But none was announced. Nor has one apparently been found in the month since this row broke out.
Thus we find the Prime Minister timing his call to Rashford for a moment when the news cycle is largely eclipsed by the result of the US presidential election (which is understandable, if not dignified), and the Government committing to an extra £170 million in spending for which it will get no credit whatsoever.
Yet whilst this latest surrender might have eased the immediate political pressure, it seems likely that it will store up future trouble for Johnson – not least because it is now more likely that Rashford, who insists that there is “much more to do”, will keep coming back. As Kipling famously wrote, once you have paid a danegeld – let alone paid it twice – you are seldom free of the Dane.
And by appearing to concede to the logic of the Government’s opponents, who branded it ‘Dickensian’, this makes all the arguments adduced in defence of Johnson’s approach look like they were made in bad faith.
But the Prime Minister has also burned the fingers of Tory MPs who rode out to defend the Government line on this. This mirrors David Cameron’s great u-turn over forestry sell-offs, which Paul Goodman raised with Jacob Rees-Mogg in the latest Moggcast (during which the Leader of the House insisted no reversal was in the offing).
That such behaviour has long-term consequences can be seen in who stepped up to defend Johnson’s position in the Commons debate on free school meals last month. Of the seven MPs whose contributions we quoted in our piece, five were of the 2019 intake. Older, and in the event perhaps wiser, heads gave the event a wide berth. For a Government which is already having trouble with a restive caucus, pulling the rug out from under the new intake will teach them unhelpful lessons. And for a Prime Minister short on ideological allies, embarrassing the group of MPs whom he helped elect will only help to thin the ranks of his loyalists.
Contrary to some cynical caricatures, politicians are quite often willing to risk public anger and take, or defend, unpopular decisions. But there are some important conditions. The first is the belief that the policy in question is a necessary step towards a worthwhile goal. The second is trust that their officers won’t abandon them in a foxhole when the going gets tough.
By folding in the manner he has, Johnson fails both tests. He’s not only let his troops hand their opponents ammunition which will be thrown back in their faces until the next election, but also sent a strong signal that there is no plan behind it all. The month delay in u-turning wasn’t to buy time for anything, it was simply indecision. The next time he tries to send ‘Boris’s Boys and Girls‘ over the top, he may find them much less willing.


conservativehome--2020-11-10--James Frayne: Perhaps the Conservatives should simply revert to being southern and posh

James Frayne is Director of Public First and author of Meet the People , a guide to moving public opinion .
In my twenties , I took a serious interest in US politics and campaigns , naively coming to think of the UK and US as culturally similar .
It ’ s an easy mistake : a shared history ; mutual respect for each other ’ s institutions ; similar attitudes to the free market , individual rights and the rule of law ; overlapping tastes in popular culture .
But it ’ s a mistake nonetheless .
When I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New York City for a couple of years – theoretically culturally familiar places – I came to realise how utterly foreign the US is .
While I love the US and believe they ’ re our closest ally , I ’ m culturally European .
I ’ m now firmly of the view those people seeking to apply political and electoral lessons from the US to the UK are usually wasting their time .
As Nick Timothy pointed out yesterday in the Daily Telegraph , the idea that Boris Johnson ’ s conservatism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defeat is ludicrous – the two are cut from different cloth , despite persistent but silly commentary linking “ Brexit and Trump ” .
So I stress : those looking to learn lessons from the US are mostly wasting their time .
But one important consideration does arise for British Conservatives .
This is the electoral danger of letting down the new working class voters who have flocked to Trump ’ s GOP and the Conservative Party respectively .
In the US , these voters are often called Reagan Democrats or sometimes Springsteen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tend to call them the “ traditional working class ” ; either way , they ’ re the working class of industrial and post industrial areas .
While their similarities stretch only so far , given the differing nature of British and American labour markets and industrial history , the theme of working class disappointment is relevant .
We shouldn ’ t over-simplify : there were many reasons why Trump won in 2016 ; aggressive cultural conservatism was only one of them .
But Trump partly carried so-called “ rust-belt ” states by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and heavy industry .
In short , he pledged to bring back dignity to hard-up places .
The fact that this hasn ’ t happened – despite a surge in the national economy – dented his re-election chances .
A reality check : it doesn ’ t appear that Joe Biden truly surged amongst working class voters , nor did Trump collapse .
But they do appear to have shifted markedly away from him .
Given his narrow lead amongst the working class – and indeed his narrow lead in rust-belt states , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to cause serious electoral problems .
British Conservatives face a similar problem .
No , they didn ’ t make the same sorts of promises to the traditional working class in 2019 ; they didn ’ t promise the equivalent of , say , bringing back coal and steel to the North of England .
But while “ getting Brexit done ” was the most important part of their campaign last December , “ levelling up ” has become the party ’ s central public narrative ( Covid aside ) ever since ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ policy communications .
Their promises to the working class are far less outlandish than Trump ’ s , but they ’ re arguably more defined by their promises because they ’ ve talked of little else .
Trump ’ s winning coalition was large , but it was shallow , because of its reliance on new voters with no history of voting Republican .
The same is true here .
The Conservatives ’ 80 seat majority looks massive , but it ’ s also precarious because again it ’ s built on new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ class people will cut the Conservatives slack because of Covid , they ’ ll soon be asking what progress the Government has made for them .
They will certainly not accept the opposite of “ levelling up ” – the further decline of their towns and cities ( which is already happening ) .
Just like those long-term Democrats who asked whether shifting their votes to their historical economic and moral opponents was worth it after all , so those traditional working class Labour voters from the Midlands , North and the Coast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They ’ ll ask whether the Conservatives were all talk .
And as I ’ ve written before , Keir Starmer is a very different proposition for the working class than Jeremy Corbyn .
It ’ s reported today that Rishi Sunak has promised Northern MPs more resources and more attention in the post-Covid period , largely , apparently , in the form of new infrastructure spending .
This is welcome .
( Though what about other areas – not least the Midlands and the coast ? )
But time isn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ task is huge .
Unless they can offer meaningful social and economic progress in such places as Walsall , Wolverhampton , Derby , Rotherham and Oldham , they will be out .
Yes , they ’ ll be able to blame Covid-19 – but so what ?
In fact , such little progress is being made , with time rapidly running out , it will soon be time to consider whether the Conservatives should junk their presumed working class strategy and focus once again on the affluent South .
And it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the easy route , follow its heart , and go back to being Southern and posh ; yes , I ’ m serious .
Where should the Conservatives focus ?
Infrastructure matters .
Ultimately , however , improving the economy outside the prosperous South East will require radically improving education and skills at all levels – seeking to build new businesses and industries from this new base of skilled workers .
But you ’ re talking of two or three Parliaments to see the fruits of any such decisions made now .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Rapid progress will depend on being able to show town centres – and specifically high streets – have improved .
This doesn ’ t just mean defending commerce ; it means making town centres safer and more attractive and , crucially , fostering local pride .
The Party should be throwing itself into this task .
A useful immediate start to focus minds : use all those screens in the Cabinet Office to display figures from a Towns Dashboard .

James Frayne is Director of Public First and author of Meet the People, a guide to moving public opinion.
In my twenties, I took a serious interest in US politics and campaigns, naively coming to think of the UK and US as culturally similar. It’s an easy mistake: a shared history; mutual respect for each other’s institutions; similar attitudes to the free market, individual rights and the rule of law; overlapping tastes in popular culture.
But it’s a mistake nonetheless. When I lived and worked in Washington DC and New York City for a couple of years – theoretically culturally familiar places – I came to realise how utterly foreign the US is. While I love the US and believe they’re our closest ally, I’m culturally European. I’m now firmly of the view those people seeking to apply political and electoral lessons from the US to the UK are usually wasting their time.
As Nick Timothy pointed out yesterday in the Daily Telegraph, the idea that Boris Johnson’s conservatism is damaged by Donald Trump’s defeat is ludicrous – the two are cut from different cloth, despite persistent but silly commentary linking “Brexit and Trump”.
So I stress: those looking to learn lessons from the US are mostly wasting their time. But one important consideration does arise for British Conservatives.
This is the electoral danger of letting down the new working class voters who have flocked to Trump’s GOP and the Conservative Party respectively.
In the US, these voters are often called Reagan Democrats or sometimes Springsteen Democrats; in the UK, we tend to call them the “traditional working class”; either way, they’re the working class of industrial and post industrial areas. While their similarities stretch only so far, given the differing nature of British and American labour markets and industrial history, the theme of working class disappointment is relevant.
We shouldn’t over-simplify: there were many reasons why Trump won in 2016; aggressive cultural conservatism was only one of them. But Trump partly carried so-called “rust-belt” states by promising to bring back long-lost manufacturing jobs and heavy industry. In short, he pledged to bring back dignity to hard-up places. The fact that this hasn’t happened – despite a surge in the national economy – dented his re-election chances.
A reality check: it doesn’t appear that Joe Biden truly surged amongst working class voters, nor did Trump collapse. But they do appear to have shifted markedly away from him. Given his narrow lead amongst the working class – and indeed his narrow lead in rust-belt states, full stop – this shift was enough to cause serious electoral problems.
British Conservatives face a similar problem. No, they didn’t make the same sorts of promises to the traditional working class in 2019; they didn’t promise the equivalent of, say, bringing back coal and steel to the North of England.
But while “getting Brexit done” was the most important part of their campaign last December, “levelling up” has become the party’s central public narrative (Covid aside) ever since; it runs through almost all of their policy communications. Their promises to the working class are far less outlandish than Trump’s, but they’re arguably more defined by their promises because they’ve talked of little else.
Trump’s winning coalition was large, but it was shallow, because of its reliance on new voters with no history of voting Republican. The same is true here. The Conservatives’ 80 seat majority looks massive, but it’s also precarious because again it’s built on new voters with few loyalties.
While working class people will cut the Conservatives slack because of Covid, they’ll soon be asking what progress the Government has made for them. They will certainly not accept the opposite of “levelling up” – the further decline of their towns and cities (which is already happening).
Just like those long-term Democrats who asked whether shifting their votes to their historical economic and moral opponents was worth it after all, so those traditional working class Labour voters from the Midlands, North and the Coast will pose the same sort of question. They’ll ask whether the Conservatives were all talk. And as I’ve written before, Keir Starmer is a very different proposition for the working class than Jeremy Corbyn.
It’s reported today that Rishi Sunak has promised Northern MPs more resources and more attention in the post-Covid period, largely, apparently, in the form of new infrastructure spending. This is welcome. (Though what about other areas – not least the Midlands and the coast?)
But time isn’t on their side, and the task is huge. Unless they can offer meaningful social and economic progress in such places as Walsall, Wolverhampton, Derby, Rotherham and Oldham, they will be out. Yes, they’ll be able to blame Covid-19 – but so what?
In fact, such little progress is being made, with time rapidly running out, it will soon be time to consider whether the Conservatives should junk their presumed working class strategy and focus once again on the affluent South. And it’s possible that the party should indeed take the easy route, follow its heart, and go back to being Southern and posh; yes, I’m serious.
Where should the Conservatives focus? Infrastructure matters. Ultimately, however, improving the economy outside the prosperous South East will require radically improving education and skills at all levels – seeking to build new businesses and industries from this new base of skilled workers. But you’re talking of two or three Parliaments to see the fruits of any such decisions made now. The Conservatives don’t have that luxury.
Rapid progress will depend on being able to show town centres – and specifically high streets – have improved. This doesn’t just mean defending commerce; it means making town centres safer and more attractive and, crucially, fostering local pride. The Party should be throwing itself into this task. A useful immediate start to focus minds: use all those screens in the Cabinet Office to display figures from a Towns Dashboard.


conservativehome--2020-11-10--Calling Conservatives: New public appointments announced. Commissioner for Public Appointments – and