washingtonpost--2020-04-24--Here’s Where $881 Billion in U.S. Aid Went in Month of Spending

On Friday , President Donald Trump plans to sign into law another $ 484 billion in rescue money , including replenishment of small business assistance , aid to hospitals and funding for virus testing .
Here is a tally of what ’ s been spent or committed so far from the law ’ s key programs : About 20 % of the stimulus , or $ 454 billion , was given to Mnuchin to use as a backstop for Federal Reserve lending facilities .
The central bank can leverage that into more than $ 4 trillion to help stabilize financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ local governments .
The central bank has said it will post details about who is tapping its facilities on its website .
Nearly a dozen airlines have said they would participate in the payroll assistance program designed specifically for the industry , which comes in the form of grants and low-interest loans .
So far , airlines have claimed $ 21.6 billion of the total $ 50 billion in aid available .
Payments are being handed out on a “ rolling basis , ” according to the Treasury Department .
Several airlines have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loans but have until the end of September to decide what they will actually take .
The Cares Act sets aside $ 17 billion for companies deemed critical to national security .
So far , none of that money has gone out .
The Treasury released an application for those funds late Thursday .
The most obvious contender for the funds is Boeing Co. , which is shying away from asking for a piece of this portion of the rescue package .
Mnuchin has so far said this pot of money is for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Defense department , or companies with top-secret clearance .
The Internal Revenue Service has sent out more than half of economic impact payments it plans to distribute to households to help bolster family budgets as workers face job losses or see their hours cut .
The agency has sent up to $ 155.9 billion of the total $ 292 billion it plans to send , according to Treasury Department data released Thursday afternoon .
While the latest spending bill from Congress does not authorize any more money for state and local governments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that there would be a separate “ major package ” to address the needs of states and localities .
The initial $ 349 billion for Paycheck Protection Program loans intended for small businesses ran out less than two weeks after it was rolled out .
The Small Business Administration approved about 1.6 million loans at an average size of $ 206,000 .
Congress has approved another $ 320 billion for the program , $ 10 billion of which is for fees and processing , bringing the total aid package to $ 670 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ additional $ 60 billion for a separate small business economic injury loan program , that Congress initially gave $ 17 billion .
More than $ 27.7 billion in unemployment benefits have been paid out so far in April .
Congress estimates that expanded benefits package will total about $ 260 billion , however there isn ’ t a cap on the amount that the federal government will pay out .
More than 26 million Americans have lost their jobs in the past five weeks .


washingtonpost--2020-04-23--U.S. Unemployment Waves Keep Hitting With Millions More Claims

But filings might continue at an extraordinary pace for several more weeks , boosting an unemployment rate that may already be around 20 % .
While most of the layoffs in sectors like retail have likely already occurred , there will be “ collateral damage ” as companies faced with weak demand dismiss workers , said Jay Bryson , acting chief economist at Wells Fargo & Co.Bryson said he believes the U.S. is past the peak in initial claims “ for the foreseeable future , ” but “ if we open up too soon and this coronavirus comes roaring back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sorts of numbers again.
” It ’ s still unclear to what extent the most recent claims totals reflect millions of people still losing their jobs each week or whether it ’ s largely a reflection of jobless Americans who are just now able to get through jammed websites and phone lines after weeks of trying .
States are racing to boost the capacity to computer systems built years ago , adding workers to handle unprecedented volumes of claims and trying to get the $ 600 in additional weekly aid to the unemployed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as staggering applications by alphabetical order of last name or the last digit of one ’ s social security number on certain days of the week in order to manage the flow .
California reported the most initial claims last week , at an unadjusted 533,600 , down from 655,500 the prior week .
Florida was next , followed by Texas at 280,400 , up slightly from the prior week .
Georgia and New York also reported more than 200,000 filings , though both down from the previous week .
The latest initial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drop from a peak of nearly 6.9 million at the end of March .
While this is an important turning point , the flood of claims will likely continue.
” Assuming all who filed for benefits are counted as unemployed , the latest figures suggest a potential April unemployment rate of around 20 % , given that Thursday ’ s data reflect the reference week for the monthly jobs report .
That ’ s double the 10 % peak reached in the wake of the last recession in 2009 and approaching levels last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ claims , or the total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits , rose by 4.1 million to an all-time high of 16 million in the week ended April 11 .
That pushed the insured unemployment rate to 11 % -- the highest on record .
Those figures are reported with a one-week lag .
The massive government stimulus package provides an extra $ 600 per week in unemployment benefits and expanded coverage to self-employed and other “ gig ” workers , presenting additional challenges for the states .
Providing the additional aid has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the number of applications flowing in .
“ We anticipate having it up and running shortly , ” Delli Santi said of the aid for self-employed people .
“ States had little lead time to get these programs up and running.
” In Michigan , one of the hardest-hit states , the state labor department has 600 people answering phones and communicating with people who apply for benefits using the Internet , compared with a normal agency staff of about 130 , spokesperson Jason Moon said .
Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker said Wednesday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ improvement in handling millions more online filings and calls after recent boosts in capacity .
The Florida Department of Economic Opportunity has installed new servers to increase capacity , and just over the weekend , the state upgraded its system to process claims faster .
Texas , which has seen 1.6 million applications related to the pandemic , added an eighth call center and paid out $ 499 million in benefits in just the first two days of this week .

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washingtonpost--2020-04-24--McConnell’s Hometown Will Be Hit Hard Without Federal Bailout

Louisville , which McConnell calls home , and Lexington face massive budget deficits , with few options other than dipping into savings and cutting services and jobs , which will only add to the economic turmoil .
Already , a fourth of Kentucky workers have lost their jobs in the last five weeks , according to U.S. Labor Department data .
While Congress approved $ 484 billion in coronavirus funds this week , budget relief for municipalities isn ’ t included .
Instead , McConnell suggested during a radio interview that states could pursue bankruptcy as an alternative way to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ call to “ push the pause button , ” and even some of his GOP colleagues are pressing for aid .
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo , a Democrat , said the national economy would “ collapse ” if states are allowed to go bankrupt .
New York Representative Pete King , a Republican , called McConnell the “ Marie Antoinette of the Senate ” for his seeming indifference to the plight of America ’ s local governments -- including those in Kentucky .
“ To me it ’ s pretty straightforward , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this issue sooner , rather than later , ” Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer , a Democrat , said in an interview .
“ Without the basic services being delivered in the city , we ’ re not going to have an economic recovery.
” The CARES Act created a $ 150 billion fund for states and large governments to cover public health-related costs they ’ re incurring to mitigate the outbreak of the virus .
A spokesman for McConnell said that Kentucky is expected to receive at least $ 1.25 billion in relief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ large share for the Louisville metro area given its population .
A lobbying group for U.S. governors asked Congress to provide $ 500 billion in aid for states alone , with cities seeking additional funds .
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Louisville ’ s Fischer are among the leaders that have called for federal help .
Louisville has projected a $ 115 million budget shortfall over the next 14 months , and without federal aid , will have to cut a fifth of its workforce , according to Fischer .
About half of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taxes , making the budget especially sensitive to the job losses driven by the virus .
The city would consider short-term borrowing for cash-flow needs , according to a spokesperson for Fischer , though that ’ s not a sustainable solution long-term .
About 78 miles ( 125 kilometers ) away , Lexington is facing what Mayor Linda Gorton , a Republican , called an unprecedented $ 40 million drop in revenue for the coming fiscal year .
Gorton plans to cut services , trim a planned bond offering for new police cars @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a $ 35 million rainy-day fund .
Beshear ’ s office didn ’ t provide an estimate of the tax revenue hit , but he said during a press conference that the closures will likely pose a problem during the current fiscal year .
In the radio interview on Wednesday , McConnell said he wasn ’ t ready to send a “ blank check ” to governments .
New York ’ s Cuomo criticized McConnell ’ s comments , saying that Kentucky -- unlike his state -- takes more federal money than it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enacted since March have totaled almost $ 3 trillion .
“ They want to fund small business , fund the airlines -- I understand that , ” Cuomo said Thursday .
“ But state and local governments fund police and fire and teachers and schools .
How do you not fund police and fire and teachers and schools in the midst of this crisis ?
” GOP lawmakers may be reluctant to provide additional aid because it could be a “ bailout ” to state pensions , McConnell said in the radio interview @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the third-worst funded pension in the nation in 2019 , just behind New Jersey , according to data compiled by Bloomberg .
J.D .
Chaney , who leads the Kentucky League of Cities , said he ’ s optimistic that McConnell , a former judge-executive who is facing re-election this year , will eventually come through for Kentucky .


washingtonpost--2020-04-24--Closed Food Businesses, Restaurants Look for Ways to Carry On

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washingtonpost--2020-04-24--Hedge Funds Ruled Ineligible for U.S. Small Business Rescue

The Trump administration does not believe that Congress intended those types of businesses , which are generally ineligible for SBA loans under existing regulations , to qualify , according to the guidance .
Concern that hedge funds might tap the PPP program amid the coronavirus crisis has triggered a backlash on Capitol Hill and around the country .
Big hedge fund investors -- including state pension funds -- have issued stern warnings to the industry about seeking financing .
Congress this week passed a relief bill that President Donald Trump signed Friday that includes an additional $ 320 billion for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as much as $ 10 million for payroll costs and other expenses to keep workers on company payrolls amid state stay-at-home orders .
The initial $ 349 billion appropriated for the program when it launched on April 3 ran out in just 13 days , after loans were approved for more than 1.6 million small businesses , according to the SBA .
Some public companies that reported receiving PPP loans , including Ruth ’ s Chris Steak House ’ s parent Ruth ’ s Hospitality Group Inc. and Shake Shack Inc. , decided @ @ @ @ @ @ @ criticism .
It ’ s not clear whether hedge funds might have obtained loans because most aren ’ t publicly traded , meaning they don ’ t face the same disclosure obligations .
In early April , law firms began hosting Webinars and sending out alerts to explain to hedge funds how they might be able to access SBA loans .
Accounting firms also reached out to funds to provide similar advice .
Some hedge funds did apply , filling out forms attesting that they have fewer than 500 employees and certifying that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loan request necessary to support the ongoing operations , ” Bloomberg reported earlier this month .
Hedge funds are designed to employ as few people as possible so star traders don ’ t have to share the millions of dollars in fees they make off of their best market bets and for managing clients ’ money .
In earlier guidance issued Thursday , Treasury and SBA responded to complaints that large , publicly traded companies and big chains were getting loans at the expense of smaller mom-and-pop shops .
Those guidelines said companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gotten loans could be asked to prove they needed it because of the coronavirus outbreak .
Companies were given until May 7 to return money without penalty .
“ It is unlikely that a public company with substantial market value and access to capital markets will be able to make the required certification in good faith , and such a company should be prepared to demonstrate to SBA , upon request , the basis for its certification , ” the Thursday guidance said .
The guidance issued Friday also clarified other issues , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are eligible for a loan and what closing documents banks that are disbursing the funding should use .
Confusion and uncertainty among lenders delayed the processing of some loans in the initial round of funding .


washingtonpost--2020-04-22--Big Banks Ready to Flood the Zone With New Applications for SBA Loans

The firms , which have said they sought clarity on rules from the Small Business Administration , have since faced withering criticism from longtime clients who tried in vain to get applications processed to weather the coronavirus pandemic .
Many have flocked to social media , recounting that bankers advised them to try community banks instead .
Some have sued .
“ It ’ s definitely not a good look for the big banks , ” said Ian Katz , an analyst with Capital Alpha Partners in Washington .
“ The second time around , they should have a better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” JPMorgan Chase & Co. arranged more loans than any other firm in the first round , about $ 14 billion , but a number of regional and community banks punched far above their weight in the chaotic rush for a lifeline earlier this month .
Some smaller banks said afterward that they deployed hundreds of employees to manually enter paperwork , while larger lenders paused to get clarity on rules and spent days trying to automate the process .
Wells Fargo assigned thousands of people to process customer paperwork and set up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to a person briefed on its preparations .
Wells Fargo said last week it invited more than 450,000 customers to apply for a total of about $ 50 billion of financing , “ which we stand ready to submit.
” Still , the system will depend in part on interacting with the SBA ’ s platform known as E-Tran , which froze intermittently during the first round of the massive program .
Some lawmakers have expressed concern it won ’ t be able to handle the deluge once the program reopens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about how much of their pipelines they ’ ll be able to get through before the funds run out a second time .
Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said Wednesday that his firm has received 390,000 applications seeking a total of more than $ 50 billion in SBA loans , and has continued to process them since the first round of funding ran out .
The bank has had about 8,000 people involved in handling application packets , according to spokesman Bill Halldin .
“ Even if Congress completes the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enough to fill the demands , ” Moynihan said .
“ But we ’ re ready to go.
” JPMorgan has fully processed more than 115,000 applications , totaling around $ 13 billion , which it can submit as soon as the program reopens , a spokesperson for the company said Wednesday .
In the first round of funding , the bank ’ s commercial customers had a much higher success rate than smaller clients in getting financing .
Since then , the lender has had thousands of people verifying payroll information and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most time-intensive parts of the process .
The next round of funding includes a $ 60 billion carve-out for small lenders .
That was important for Congress to do because while community banks participated early and more aggressively in the first round than some larger banks , they ’ ll be competing this time with large banks fully active , said Paul Merski of the Independent Community Bankers of America .
“ Now that the program ’ s been up and running , the largest lenders with armies of loan officers can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .


washingtonpost--2020-03-23--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Coronavirus Pandemic

It has been described as “ insidious ” because many infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , unwittingly spreading it to others .
A study of 191 patients in China found that the median duration of infectiousness was 20 days with a maximum of 37 days .
A Japanese study found the interval from one infection to another may be about a day less than the estimated median incubation period of five to six days before the onset of symptoms .
Such a rapid generation of new cases makes contact tracing harder .
Estimates of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early stages of an outbreak because there may be many people with mild cases who go uncounted .
Anthony Fauci , director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , said March 11 that the new coronavirus is 10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu , which has a mortality rate of about 0.1 % .
That would put it at about 1 % , similar to other projections .
A related coronavirus killed 9.5 % of patients in the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded since 2012 .
In those outbreaks , however , the viruses didn ’ t transmit from one person to another as efficiently as this new one appears to do .
Certainly , they didn ’ t spread as widely as fast .
In the worst pandemic in recent history , an estimated 50 million people died from the 1918 influenza that had a case-fatality ratio of about 2 % and infected as much as a third of the world ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 flu ( swine flu ) in 2009 , infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and killed an estimated 12,469 of them in the first year it circulated .
It appears to cause a mild illness lasting about two weeks in children , adolescents and younger adults in most cases , and potentially more severe disease lasting three to six weeks in older people .
In a Chinese study , 81 % of confirmed cases were mild , 14 % were severe and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ signs are fever , dry cough , tiredness and sputum production if it stays in the nose and throat , which it does for the majority of people infected .
Danger starts when it reaches the lungs .
One in seven patients develops difficulty breathing and other severe complications , while 6 % become critically ill .
These patients typically suffer failure of the respiratory and other vital systems , and sometimes develop septic shock , according to a WHO report .
In severe cases , studies suggest the virus invades cells in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ breathing and the inflammation and congestion associated with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Apparently the elderly and those with underlying health issues .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with other illnesses such as high blood pressure , diabetes or cardiovascular disease .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found that 81 % of deaths occurred in patients over 60 years old ; in another study of about 4,000 cases in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ died were 65 or older .
In the H1N1 pandemic , about 80 % of those who died were younger than 65 , according to the CDC .
By coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes , according to the WHO ’ s first comprehensive report on Covid-19 .
These droplets can be transferred directly to someone else in close proximity or via hands and surfaces .
A study concluded that the novel coronavirus can survive four hours on copper , 24 hours on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and 72 hours on plastic .
Simple disinfectants kill it .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the virus can spread through feces or in tiny particles known as aerosols .
In a preliminary study , researchers who aerosolized it found active virus can float in the air for as long as three hours .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people likely to be infected by an individual with the virus .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( pronounced “ r naught @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how difficult an epidemic is to control .
A study of an outbreak aboard a cruise ship estimated that the r0 for Covid-19 was 2.28 during the early stages .
That would make it more infectious than seasonal flu , which has an r0 of about 1.3 and killed an estimated 61,000 people in the U.S. in the 2017-18 season .
There ’ s no evidence of that .
But “ false negative ” test results could give that impression .
A study published March 12 showed that a small proportion of recovered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discharge .
The authors theorized that it may take a few days for the immune system to completely eliminate residual viruses , which can be hard to detect .
During that period , the virus may briefly rebound and , depending on the patient ’ s general health , there is a risk of a relapse .
That doesn ’ t necessarily mean that the patient who retests positive is contagious , but the researchers suggested further investigation and post-discharge surveillance .
Just because outbreaks of influenza wilt with seasonal changes doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behave in the same way , though there is some indication it may .
The easing of flu outbreaks in the summer doesn ’ t mean the virus dies out .
Some evidence suggests it migrates to the opposite hemisphere , before returning again with cooler weather .
So , even if the coronavirus does subside in the summer , it could return in the fall .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
Early attention focused on a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as zoonoses , comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
As long as you can ’ t get it twice , yes .
If enough people in a community develop immunity through prior illness or vaccination , so-called herd immunity can become established .
That reduces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level at which transmission slows and eventually stops .
The necessary percentage depends on the r0 .
However , researchers at Imperial College London have warned that , in the absence of a vaccine , a “ second wave ” of infections is possible once quarantines and other intervention measures are lifted .
Some 60 million people in Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in China have been quarantined since late January .
New hospitals were built from the ground up in days , and the production of medical equipment was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ centers have started to pack up as patients there have recovered . )
As Covid-19 spread , officials began to switch their goal from stopping its spread to preparing for it amid shortages of testing kits , face masks and other equipment .
Italy , the worst hit country in Europe , was the first to attempt a nationwide lockdown , later shutting down factories and non-essential businesses .
Schools have been closed in many places , including Japan and the U.K. U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national emergency and has significantly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been deployed to help states cope .
People in California , New York and Illinois were told to stay home .
Emergency hospitals are being set up .
European leaders are restricting most travel into the continent in an unprecedented move , while Asian hubs Hong Kong and Singapore banned tourist arrivals or transit passengers .
Governments around the world have pledged more than $ 1.9 trillion to contain the coronavirus and shore up financial markets and businesses .
The Trump administration is pushing Congress to pass a virus rescue package .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to salaries of people whose jobs were threatened and step in to save the country ’ s railways .
Numbers of new cases in China have dropped dramatically , leading some officials to say the current outbreak there is “ generally over.
” China is now restricting some inbound flights to combat imported cases .
Reactions to China ’ s response have been mixed .
The country did not immediately release genetic information about the virus and has struggled to explain changes in the way it counts new cases .
But China ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the world two to three weeks to prepare for the virus and averted many infections , according to the WHO .
The initial U.S. response failed to stop the virus ’ s spread despite Trump ’ s tweet in late February that it was “ very much under control.
” Italy ’ s hospitals are being overwhelmed , and some in the U.S. worry they could face the same fate .
South Korea appears to have slowed its epidemic by testing people at a faster rate than any other country .
Disruptions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , work-from-home orders and extreme market volatility have slowed economic activity , especially in China and its many trading partners .
China could see its first quarterly contraction in decades , although its leaders have begun to speak of a rapid rebound .
A Bloomberg Economics model suggests a 53 % chance that the 11-year economic expansion in the U.S. will end within a year .
The economies of Japan , Germany , France and Italy were already shrinking or stalled before the virus outbreak , and the U.K. is wobbling amid Brexit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interest rates in its first emergency move since the financial crisis , then cut again , joined by many others .
A Group of Seven summit set for June was switched to a video-conference .


washingtonpost--2020-03-23--Analysis | The World’s Biggest Companies Should Plan for the Worst

Last week some carmakers still sounded relatively optimistic , pointing to the reopening of dealerships in China and signs that sales there are rebounding as new coronavirus cases slow .
BMW AG thinks the improvement in China could serve as a blueprint for what might happen in the rest of the world as governments implement draconian measures to contain the virus .
That could explain why the German auto giant still plans to pay its shareholders 1.65 billion euros ( $ 1.8 billion ) of dividends .
Volvo Cars is planning on a “ return to normality ” after Easter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is scrapping its dividend and has beefed up credit lines , it ’ s poised to resume partial production at its French and Spanish sites this week and points to signs of recovery in domestic Chinese air traffic .
This somewhat reassuring message has been contradicted , however , by Deutsche Lufthansa AG ’ s chief executive officer , Carsten Spohr , who has warned that when the coronavirus is over “ there will be a smaller global economy and that means smaller airlines.
” The implication of his message was the German @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lower level of demand .
Such divergent views reflect partly how the travel and hospitality sectors will be hit harder by the virus than other parts of the manufacturing world .
Customers needing a new car might delay their purchase but they won ’ t do so indefinitely .
Eventually their old vehicle will wear out .
In contrast , consumers probably won ’ t take two summer holidays next year just because they didn ’ t have one this time .
Until the new coronavirus is fully under control , they might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all .
It ’ s possible too that some industrial executives ( beyond those exposed to travel ) are underestimating the difficulty of containing Covid-19 , including its impact on demand and supply chains .
While Japanese schoolchildren are set to return to class in April , virus cases in Hong Kong have started increasing again .
If governments keep having to reimpose quarantines until a vaccine is found — which might take more than a year — a swift rebound could prove illusory .
Even if companies can keep their own factories @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and systems would be interrupted by further outbreaks or countermeasures .
When China quarantined a large part of its population , the rest of the global economy was still humming .
But as the U.S. follows Europe in ordering many citizens to stay at home , the impact on consumption and employment will be severe .
Germany ’ s gross domestic product is expected to contract by as much as 5 % this year , while the U.S. jobless rate is set to rocket .
Much will depend of course on the success @ @ @ @ @ @ @ citizens and businesses , and what form that assistance takes .
If companies have to cope with months of negligible revenues , government ownership of large chunks of the economy may become unavoidable .
Businesses borrowing more would only worsen corporate solvency issues .


washingtonpost--2020-03-20--Cash and Low Rates: How G-20 Policy-Makers Are Stepping Up

The Trump administration is pushing a third tranche of fiscal stimulus that could cost $ 1.3 trillion .
It includes $ 50 billion in loans for the suffering airline sector , $ 150 billion for other distressed industries and $ 500 billion in checks to individuals that would start to hit bank accounts in three weeks .
The Republican-controlled Senate is drafting its own proposal that includes some of the administration ’ s ideas .
Leaders say they ’ ll work through the weekend to complete the package , underscoring the urgency to funnel help to individuals and business hurt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its benchmark interest rate by 150 basis to near zero and lowered its discount rate to 0.25 % .
It has encouraged banks to borrow from the discount window which provides them with easy and cheap money , and is offering loans secured by assets from single-state and tax-exempt municipal money market mutual funds .
It also pledged to buy $ 700 billion of bonds , while launching facilities to support the commercial paper market .
And it opened an emergency lending program for primary dealers .
It united with other central banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In addition to setting up a 37 billion-euro ( $ 40 billion ) corona investment fund , the EU is weighing how to activate its bailout fund , the European Stability Mechanism , to unlock as much as 410 billion euros to help euro-area governments in need .
The EU will relax spending rules for its 27 members , allowing them to open up the fiscal floodgates without fear of running afoul of the bloc ’ s strict regulations on debt and deficit targets .
It will also give governments leeway to provide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ small businesses , and potentially banks .
Germany passed a 550 billion-euro loan program for companies affected by the corona crisis .
Companies suffering from a liquidity crunch can receive preferential loans through the state-run Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau .
The government is expected to approve a 40 billion-euro fund of loans and direct aid for the self employed and small businesses , and pass a supplementary budget for this year of at least 100 billion euros financed entirely by new debt , according to people familiar with the plan .
The ruling coalition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies worth around 500 billion euros , the people said .
Chancellor Rishi Sunak said on March 20 that the government will step in to help private companies pay wages to their workers and avoid layoffs , one of the most far-reaching measures yet taken by any Western government .
Sunak said the arrangement will be open-ended , and he also announced a sales-tax holiday and aid for renters and the self-employed .
It was the third set of measures unveiled by the government , which had already pledged more cash for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 330 billion pounds of loan guarantees and 20 billion pounds of tax cuts and grants for the leisure and tourism industry .
President Emmanuel Macron pledged to salvage the economy “ whatever it costs.
” Companies will be allowed to postpone taxes , while small businesses can defer utility bills .
The French leader also promised to guarantee 300 billion euros of company bank loans and said the state will cover temporary unemployment insurance .
The measures are part of a 45 billion-euro package .
All economic reforms meanwhile will be halted to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back companies in which France has stakes — Air France-KLM , Engie and Renault SA — and has said it is ready to nationalize some companies if necessary .
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has yet to announce a fiscal stimulus package , even as he effectively closed the country ’ s borders to most foreigners and asked the private sector to ensure employees worked from home .
He said the government had formed a panel to examine the impact on the economy , which is growing at the slowest pace in more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ announced a $ 2 billion injection for the foreign exchange market to support the rupee as it fell to a record low , and cash injections via long-term repo operations .
Italy ’ s government approved a 25 billion-euro stimulus package to boost the health sector and help businesses and families , ranging from the nationalization of airline Alitalia to help with temporary layoffs , subsidies for babysitters and guarantees for banks .
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is preparing a new decree with measures to boost public investment.As part of the euro-area system @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Bank of Italy didn ’ t take specific initiatives to respond the contagion .
It intervened in the market to reduce volatility when Italy ’ s sovereign spreads were rising fast , and suspended some activities related to banking supervision , like extending the terms for responding to claims presented by customers against their banks .
The Bank of Canada has cut rates twice , first at its meeting in March and then in an emergency meeting , bringing its benchmark to 0.75 % .
It says it “ stands ready @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It has also worked with the government on a plan to purchase billions of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities to inject liquidity into the financial system .
It launched a program to buy bankers ’ acceptances , short-term loans that are a key source of financing for small- and medium-sized companies .
Read more about why Central Banks Can ’ t Fight a Virus Slowdown Alone The government has unveiled a 50 trillion-won ( $ 39 billion ) plan to support small businesses .
Regulators banned short-selling of stocks for six months while the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 10 trillion won to stabilize the bonds and stocks with investment from financial institutions .
It will also provide liquidity for companies with lower ratings by increasing issuance of primary-collateralized bond obligations to 6.7 trillion won over the next three years.The Bank of Korea meanwhile has cut its key interest rate to a historic low .
Mexico is preparing development bank loans for the tourism , restaurant and air travel sectors .
It has yet to announce a specific amount for those loans , but says it may also delay tax payments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced he ’ ll speed up a monthly stipend to senior citizens , handing out two-months ’ worth of payments instead of one , for a total of 40 billion pesos ( $ 1.66 billion ) .
Mexico ’ s lower house passed a bill to allow the government to lower its 0.7 % primary surplus for this year by up to 15 % to help pay for emergency services .
Indonesia has vowed to ramp up efforts to safeguard the economy as officials warn growth is now likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this year , which would be worse than during the global financial crisis and the slowest pace since 2003 .
The government has already vowed to kick in close to $ 4 billion in three tranches , including boosting payments to low-income households and relief for the tourism sector , and a string of measures to support small and medium-sized businesses .
The world ’ s largest oil exporter is racing to contain the effects of the pandemic and its simultaneous oil-price war with Russia .
The kingdom has unveiled a package worth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , including 13.2 billion riyals in loans to small- and medium-sized enterprises and a 6 billion-riyal loan guarantee program .
The central bank cut its repo rate by 75 basis points to 1 % , and its reverse repo rate by the same amount to 0.5 % in an effort to counter the effects of the dual crisis in a country that expected to get 60 % of government revenue from oil .
The interest-rate cuts came after a half-percentage point reduction earlier this month to match the U.S. , as Saudi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peg to the dollar .


washingtonpost--2020-03-23--Canceled Stock Buybacks Mount, and They May Not Return for Years

“ Will they ever come back to previous levels ?
” Emmanuel Cau , a London-based strategist at Barclays Plc , said Monday in a phone interview .
“ Never say never , but buyback volumes already started to move lower last year as earnings rolled over , so caution is likely to prevail for now.
” Cutting repurchases removes another key support to equities , he said .
Defenders of buybacks absorbed something of a body blow last week when U.S. President Donald Trump said he was unhappy with companies that used money saved from his 2017 tax cut @ @ @ @ @ @ @ factories .
The comment suggested his distaste for the practice predates the coronavirus outbreak and echoed criticism from Democratic presidential candidates who have long viewed buybacks as a waste and social ill. “ When we did a big tax cut and when they took the money and did buybacks , that ’ s not building a hangar , that ’ s not buying aircraft , that ’ s not doing the kind of things that I want them to do , ” Trump said on Friday .
“ We didn ’ t think @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because we thought they would have known better .
But they didn ’ t know better , in some cases.
” Trump said he would support a prohibition on buybacks for companies that receive government aid .
The five biggest U.S. airlines -- prime targets for bailout funds -- spent 96 % of their free cash flow on repurchases over the last decade , money that could have been used to build rainy-day funds .
Overall buybacks started to slow in the first couple of months of the year in the U.S. , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ January and February , down 46 % from a year earlier in the slowest start to the year since 2009 .
While some viewed share repurchases as one of the driving forces behind the bull market , the practice was constantly criticized , particularly in populist circles .
Companies were simply inflating their stock prices inorganically , using cheap money in the process , so the argument went , exacerbating wealth inequality as the ultra-rich cashed out .
While the coronavirus is striking all sectors , oil companies are also dealing with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices to the lowest levels in almost two decades .
Royal Dutch Shell Plc on Monday canceled the next tranche of its buyback .
Among Europe ’ s most prolific buyers of its own shares , Shell said completion of its repurchasing program is dependent on the market and not likely to be feasible before the end of the year .
Others include France ’ s Total SA , Norway ’ s Equinor ASA and Italy ’ s Eni SpA , as well as ConocoPhillips .
Occidental Petroleum Corp. cut its dividend for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Eight giant U.S. banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. this month agreed to stop buying back their own shares through the second quarter .
They had planned a combined $ 119 billion in buybacks for the four quarters after the Federal Reserve ’ s stress tests last June .
The move is meant to preserve capital to support lending -- and perhaps to avoid criticism similar to the 2008 financial crisis , when banks were slower to suspend dividends and buybacks , leading to government bailouts as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ HSBC Holdings Plc suspended share buybacks for 2020 and 2021 as a part of its grand overhaul announced last month .
With aircraft grounded across the world and leisure travel practically frozen , most airlines are focused on survival .
Hours after Trump said he wants a ban on share repurchases for companies receiving federal aid , Delta Air Lines Inc. suspended its dividend and share repurchase program .
In Europe , Ryanair Holdings Plc said last week it will defer all share buybacks and freeze recruitment , also grounding the majority of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suspended its dividend , while Finland ’ s Finnair Oyj withdrew an earlier dividend proposal .
Relatedly , airplane maker Boeing Co. suspended its dividend and share repurchases , with Chief Executive Officer Dave Calhoun and Chairman Larry Kellner also forgoing all pay until the end of the year .
The firm is seeking a lifeline from the government after the pandemic exacerbated the company ’ s problems that were already mounting after two deadly crashes of the 737 Max jet .
Rival Airbus SE , which has generally fared better , also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earnings guidance on Monday .
With the spread of the coronavirus keeping shoppers at home , retailers are closing stores at an accelerating rate .
Fashion retailer Nordstrom Inc. suspended share repurchases last week and withdrew its forecast .
Electronics retailer Best Buy did the same a few days later .
Spain ’ s Industria de Diseno Textil SA , the owner of the Zara clothing chain , said it had postponed a decision on its dividend due to the impact of the coronavirus .
Rival Hennes & Mauritz AB on Monday canceled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which is keeping its home-improvement stores in the U.K. open , also scrapped its final dividend for the year .
While some technology companies -- such as videoconferencing maker Zoom Video Communications Inc. , which has more than doubled in value this year -- are thriving amid the calamity , others have been less fortunate .
For one , serving the travel industry is a bad place to be right now .
Sabre Corp. , which provides systems used by travel agents to book flights , hotels and car rentals , said last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ program and any dividend payouts occurring after the March 30 payment .
U.K. accounting-software provider Sage Group Plc , whose clients are largely small and medium-sized businesses , also canceled its buyback .
Pearson Plc , which provides university textbooks in print and digital form , paused its share buyback on Monday , after forecasting its earnings will be hit by test center closures .
Remote learning could be an offset , though only a long shutdown would help , given educators can use email and free video-conferencing for now , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broadcaster ITV Plc canceled its 2019 dividend and abandoned its revenue outlook for 2020 after advertisers pulled out and restrictions on movement forced it to pause work on new shows .
While the mining sector has felt the market pain more than most as metals have slumped , many of the major firms have avoided cutting dividends or buybacks , with the exception of copper giant Freeport-McMoRan Inc. suspended its quarterly dividend Monday .
Going further , analysts at Goldman Sachs said last week that the mining sector ’ s de-rating may provide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and carry out share buybacks or takeovers .
With many of the largest miners heavily exposed to China , which is seemingly on its way to recovery , the firms may be banking on further stimulus and infrastructure projects .
Carriers have been relative winners in the recent sell-off , thanks to their defensive traits and surging demand for data as workers worldwide shift to living-room offices and children learn remotely .
Yet the sector hasn ’ t been immune either .
AT & T Inc. said Friday it ’ s canceling an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion of shares .
Meanwhile , Japan ’ s SoftBank Group Corp. on Monday unveiled an unprecedented $ 41 billion plan to sell off assets , part of which would go toward a new share buyback plan .


washingtonpost--2020-04-13--Bank of America Can Favor Its Own Customers in Rescue Loan Program

The federal program aims to help small businesses keep paying workers through forgivable loans as big as $ 10 million to cover payrolls , rent and utility payments .
Requests for unemployment benefits have surged to nearly 17 million as workers stay home to limit the spread of the highly contagious pathogen .
The rollout of the Paycheck Protection Program has been plagued by uncertainty tied to its size and to delays in getting cash to businesses to avoid permanent shutdowns and a wave of bankruptcy filings .
In one of the first suits to go after a lender based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ businesses selling products in the state sued Bank of America , arguing their applications had been rejected because they didn ’ t already have small-business loans from the bank .
They include a security company , an automotive parts seller and a hair salon .
Gallagher on Monday denied their request for a temporary restraining order against the bank , though she allowed the lawsuit to move forward .
She found that the $ 2 trillion Coronavirus Aid , Relief and Economic Security ( CARES ) Act didn ’ t impose “ prohibitions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ processes for accepting or processing ” loan applications .
In her 23-page ruling , the judge also found that Congress didn ’ t specifically provide the right for loan applicants to “ bring civil suits against PPP lenders ” over processing procedures .
The plaintiffs will appeal the ruling and press ahead with the suit , aimed at enforcing “ their rights to seek these critical funds , ” said attorney Alan Rifkin .
The bank will “ remain focused on processing the more than 300,000 applications we ’ ve received so far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in loans , ” spokesman William Halldin said .
The judge acknowledged that “ BofA ’ s rigid eligibility criteria have undoubtedly made it materially harder for some small businesses to access ” the loan program .
But she concluded that the duty to fix any flaws in the law falls on Congress , which is “ better positioned to remedy any defects in the CARES Act , and to pass the supplemental legislation it believes best aimed at ameliorating the effects of the COVID-19 crisis.
” The case is Profiles Inc. v. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. District Court .
District of Maryland ( Baltimore ) .
For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com


washingtonpost--2020-04-14--Analysis | Don’t Count the Fracking Industry Out Just Yet

At the same time , it ’ s worth asking whether expectations of a mortal blow are overblown .
In 2014 , the last time a Saudi Arabian-led supply splurge attempted to squeeze out shale producers , most analysts believed they needed $ 60 to $ 90 a barrel to make money .
It didn ’ t turn out that way .
Far from wilting with lower prices , the shale industry used the tougher environment to push through long-overdue productivity improvements .
On the eve of the demand hit from coronavirus , the U.S. was pumping about 50 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
There ’ s a key difference between the shale industry and the rest of the oil and gas sector : Frackers are doing the same thing over and over again .
Compared with vast conventional fields that can keep producing for decades , shale plays are smaller and run dry after three or four years , putting producers on a constant treadmill of bringing new wells onstream .
Despite accounting for less than one-sixth of the world ’ s oil production , the U.S. is home to about a third of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unconventional oil producers are constantly learning how to operate more efficiently , just like manufacturers of computer chips , flat-screen televisions and solar panels .
Frackers ’ so-called learning rate is lower than those sectors — one 2017 study estimated it was around 3.2 % during the 2014 oil price crash , compared with double-digit figures for renewable technologies .
Even so , it could still be enough to drive efficiencies not accessible to other players .
Shale producers will be able to cut costs by 16 % this year , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a 10 % reduction for conventional onshore and 12 % drop for offshore players .
One of the most obvious places is bankruptcy .
A standard way of reducing spending is to use less infrastructure to serve more wells — but the patchwork nature of mineral leases normally makes that difficult .
Pushing small producers to the wall provides an opportunity for more solvent players to buy up assets and consolidate their production .
The bankruptcy process itself will help to write off debts for the companies forced to endure it .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ help the sector ’ s chronic inability to post positive cash flows .
Lower finance costs , however , might .
Another benefit may come from the rising number of wells that have been drilled but aren ’ t pumping yet .
In the Permian Basin of west Texas , this so-called fracklog is at some of its highest levels on record .
Even before the coronavirus hit to demand , many frackers were happy to keep their wells mothballed because a shortage of pipelines made it hard to get crude to market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ start to recover over the next 18 months or so , those wells represent a huge volume of sunk spending that can be brought to market at marginal cash costs that would typically be below $ 20 a barrel .
With nearly 3,500 such wells in the Permian alone , that represents some 2.5 million barrels a day of production at current output levels .
Sunk costs aren ’ t the only place where savings can be found .
The oil services sector has been plagued with overcapacity since the 2014 downturn , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one of the biggest drivers of cost reductions .
IHS Markit ’ s Upstream Capital Costs Index typically follows moves in the oil price , rather than vice versa , as lower revenues force the industry to find new efficiencies .
One of the biggest cost items for bringing already-drilled shale wells into production is proppant , the sandy mixture that must be forced into deposits to crack open the rock and release the hydrocarbons trapped inside .
The Midwestern sand that was traditionally shipped to oil-producing regions at vast costs has now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far cheaper local grains .
Share prices of frac sand producers like Hi-Crush Inc. and U.S. Silica Holdings Inc. are at pennies on the dollar relative to where they were a few years ago .
While that ’ s bad news for them , it ’ s good for the companies that use their products .
It ’ s possible the post-2014 efficiency gains seen in the U.S. shale patch were a one-time phenomenon and cost-cutting has reached its natural limits .
If that ’ s right , it ’ s likely that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recover from this latest assault .
If , on the other hand , they were part of an ongoing downward cost trend , don ’ t ignore the possibility that the sector will eventually bounce back .
What doesn ’ t kill the frackers may well make them stronger .


washingtonpost--2020-04-14--Analysis | The EU’s Big Pandemic Failure Isn’t About Money

The focus on money is understandable , given the looming recession that ’ s expected to be deeper than the crisis of 2008 .
But it obscures a glaring failure of the European Union that may have made both the human and financial cost of the pandemic worse : A lack of coordination and collaboration in health-care policy .
Despite a common market , a ( mostly ) common external border , and a common health-care challenge in the shape of an aging population , the EU ’ s 27 member states have scattered like mice when fighting the coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Italy , the first and worst hit in Europe , begged its partners for masks and equipment — not money .
The response was a string of border closures and the hoarding of medical supplies for domestic consumption .
By the time France , Spain and Germany instituted their own lockdowns , it was clear there would be 27 different responses to the coronavirus , not one “ European ” one .
Normally , it ’ s the lecturing tone of the European Commission , the EU ’ s executive body , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to follow .
But health-care policy is jealously guarded by national governments , which have never given Brussels technocrats full powers to dictate how hospitals or drug supplies are managed .
The lesson of Covid-19 , supposedly , is that Leviathan ’ s nation-state knows best .
Yet the uneven death toll as it now stands suggests Leviathan isn ’ t always well-equipped against epidemics .
Countries that reacted early relative to their Covid-19 outbreaks — Austria , Denmark , Greece — appear to be doing better than those that reacted relatively late @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A thrifty yet decentralized country like Germany , combining high intensive-care capacity with specialist industrial health-care firms , seems to be coping better than France ’ s well-funded but centralized system that ’ s ferrying patients by high-speed train to less-hit regions in order to ease the burden .
Some countries have better access to masks and tests than others .
There are complex factors that seem to make one country more Covid-resistant than another .
They go beyond a North-South divide , or health-care spending as a percentage of GDP .
Some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t be helped .
But the EU should have been ideally equipped to fight a lot of these disparities .
Properly-funded information-sharing and coordinated disease surveillance between countries would have made swift responses possible .
A pooling of medical supplies would have better allocated existing resources for things like test kits , masks and ventilators , while combined purchasing power could have bought more for less .
It ’ s not just about hindsight , but foresight : The EU should also be a contender in the all-important global race for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ budgets to fund at least $ 30 billion in estimated research and manufacturing costs to get there .
( It ’ s also home to several drugmakers already working toward that goal , such as France ’ s Sanofi or Germany ’ s CureVac AG ) .
The bloc ’ s resources are often tied up in red tape and bureaucratic silos , though , as the furious departure letter by top EU science official Mauro Ferrari indicated last week .
His reported push to redirect 2 billion euros ( $ 2.2 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ research funding toward Covid-19 ruffled feathers and resulted in a unanimous request for his resignation from the European Research Council , but it ’ s clear that redirecting the flow of money in a crisis isn ’ t the EU ’ s strong point .
“ More Europe ” is an understandably hard sell right now , and few member states will be in a rush to transfer more powers to Brussels .
But existing tools can and should be beefed up .
Nine EU countries including France , Italy and Spain explicitly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do more on establishing common guidelines and the sharing of data and information .
They could start with the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control , which has a paltry budget of around 60 million euros , a long way off the U.S. equivalent ’ s budget of $ 11 billion .
Medical equipment and testing capacity should be funded across the bloc as lockdowns start to be lifted .
That may well require a lift to the EU ’ s budget .
Not all forms of top-down control make sense in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ led the way in some countries , more so than even national governments .
But as the London School of Economics ’ s Joan Costa Font puts it , collective action between countries is obviously beneficial when facing a pandemic that doesn ’ t respect borders — not least in the EU , where a highly-integrated economy means it ’ s in every country ’ s interest to have healthy neighbors .
If the focus on money fails to lead to more burden-sharing of health information and resources , European states will face @ @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-04-01--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Coronavirus Pandemic

It ’ s been described as “ insidious ” because many infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , unwittingly spreading it to others .
The estimated median length of time between infection and the onset of symptoms is five to six days , and some of those who are infected don ’ t develop symptoms at all , including children .
A study of 191 patients in China found that the median duration of infectiousness was 20 days with a maximum of 37 days .
A Japanese study suggested that a substantial proportion of infections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ill .
This can make it difficult to identify the people they had close contact with during that infectious period so that precautions can be taken against further spread .
Estimates of the fatality rate are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak because there may be many people with mild cases who go uncounted .
A number of projections have put the fatality rate at about 1 % , which would make it 10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu .
A study published March 30 estimated it at 0.66 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of patients in the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS , and another known as MERS-CoV has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded since 2012 .
In those outbreaks , however , the viruses didn ’ t transmit from one person to another as efficiently as this new one does and didn ’ t spread as widely .
In the worst pandemic in recent history , the 1918 influenza hit as much as a third of the world ’ s population , killing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or an estimated 50 million people .
The last pandemic , an outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 flu ( swine flu ) in 2009 , infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and killed an estimated 12,469 of them in the first year it circulated .
It appears to cause a mild illness lasting about two weeks in children , adolescents and younger adults in most cases , and potentially more severe disease lasting three to six weeks in older people .
In a Chinese study , 81 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 14 % were severe and 4.7 % critical .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , dry cough and tiredness .
A sudden loss of taste and smell is an early symptom among some patients .
Sputum production is another sign , if the virus stays in the nose and throat , which it does for the majority of people infected .
Danger starts when it reaches the lungs .
One in seven patients develops difficulty breathing and other severe complications .
Those who become critically ill typically suffer failure of the respiratory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ develop septic shock , according to a World Health Organization report .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Apparently the elderly and those with underlying health issues .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with other illnesses such as high blood pressure , diabetes or cardiovascular disease .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found that 81 % of deaths occurred in patients over 60 years old ; in another study of about 4,000 cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those who died were 65 or older .
( By contrast , in the H1N1 pandemic , about 80 % of those who died were younger than 65 , according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention . )
By coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes , according to the WHO .
These can be transferred directly to someone in close proximity or by touching a contaminated surface and then the mouth , nose or eyes .
One study concluded that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ copper , 24 hours on cardboard , 48 hours on stainless steel and 72 hours on plastic .
Simple disinfectants kill it .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the coronavirus can spread through feces or in tiny airborne particles known as aerosols .
In a preliminary study , researchers who deliberately aerosolized it under laboratory conditions found active virus can float for as long as three hours .
The WHO stressed , however , that according to current evidence , the possibility of airborne transmission is limited to medical procedures with Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tracheostomies .
The agency noted that in an analysis of more than 75,000 cases in China , no airborne transmission was reported .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people likely to be infected by an individual with the virus .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( pronounced “ r naught ” ) , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
A study of an outbreak aboard a cruise ship estimated that the r0 for Covid-19 was 2.28 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make it more infectious than seasonal flu , which has an r0 of about 1.3 and killed an estimated 61,000 people in the U.S. in the 2017-18 season .
That ’ s an important unknown .
With many pathogens , the body develops antibodies that protect against reinfection for life .
But it ’ s not always the case .
Reinfection after a period of months or years has been found to be common with other human coronaviruses .
If enough people in a community develop immunity through prior illness or vaccination , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That reduces the number of susceptible people to a level at which transmission slows and eventually stops .
The necessary percentage depends on the r0 , but it ’ s generally high , for example 75 % for diphtheria and 91 % for measles .
Just because outbreaks of influenza wilt with seasonal changes doesn ’ t mean the novel coronavirus will behave in the same way , though there is some indication it may .
Some evidence suggests that as the weather warms , flu migrates to the opposite hemisphere , before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even if the coronavirus does subside in the summer , it could return in the fall .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them , responsible for diseases that range in severity from the common cold to MERS .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
The WHO says that new strains emerge periodically around the globe , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
The virus emerged in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as zoonoses , comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .


washingtonpost--2020-04-01--Analysis | Meal Kits Are the Next Best Thing in Covid-19 Pandemic

But no one foresaw an event that would shut down a whole side of the marketplace , and the coronavirus pandemic has done just that .
For Airbnb , self-isolation means that nobody is travelling .
There is plenty of supply with millions of listings still on the site , but the demand has all but evaporated .
The same goes for Uber rides .
In food delivery , it ’ s the supply side that has difficulties .
On the whole , services like Uber Eats , Grubhub Inc. , Deliveroo and Just Eat Takeaway depend on existing restaurants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , if not most , of those restaurants , the main business was still preparing food for on-site dining .
Now that ’ s not possible in the U.K. , France , Italy and elsewhere , continuing to operate as a delivery-only operation fundamentally changes the economics of the business : Restaurants still have operating costs , except now they might have to direct a quarter of their income to the food delivery platforms .
Many have simply shut their doors completely because they can ’ t make it work .
Chinese delivery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impact , as my colleague Tim Culpan wrote yesterday .
( Uber Eats and Grubhub are trying to counter the trend by subsidizing some restaurant costs . )
Which is why companies like HelloFresh SE and Blue Apron Holdings Inc. , long the subject of Silicon Valley derision , suddenly seem to have very sensible business models .
On the surface , they are similar to the food delivery platforms : They too deliver food .
The difference is that , because they deliver meal kits they put together in their own kitchens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a firm like Deliveroo has to worry about ensuring it has enough restaurants and customers .
HelloFresh ’ s concern is simply demand .
Even then , there ’ s less need for as high a density of demand than for takeaway food — though of course it helps .
Because customers cook the meals themselves , there ’ s less anxiety about a dish congealing in the panniers of a moped .
While Deliveroo has started operating some of its own kitchens , it still has to compete with Grubhub , Just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fronts .
HelloFresh can concentrate on one : customers .
The upshot is that business is soaring for the meal-kit firms .
HelloFresh said Monday it ’ s expecting first-quarter sales of between 685 million euros ( $ 750 million ) and 710 million euros , up from 420 million euros a year earlier .
Analysts had been expecting revenue of 553 million euros .
The company anticipates adjusted first-quarter Ebitda of as much as 75 million euros — in just three months , it ’ s set to make about three quarters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the full year .
Uber , which isn ’ t expected to be profitable at all on a similar basis until 2022 , has seen just a 10 % jump in U.S. orders at its food delivery business , according to The Information .
Beleaguered Blue Apron ’ s shares have jumped more than fourfold from a March 13 low , giving it a $ 156 million market capitalization , though its ability to capitalize on surging demand is more limited — it has been cutting costs in recent months .
Meanwhile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ add 400 employees at a site in Oxfordshire , near London , according to the BBC .
Silicon Valley dogma tends to dictate that assets are bad .
But in some instances , more control over the factors of supply can be very satisfying indeed .


washingtonpost--2020-04-01--Democrats Push for Fed to Decide Who Gets Municipal Rescue

The coronavirus pandemic has crimped sources of tax revenue for states and localities at a time when resources , including paramedics and hospitals , are being committed to combat the threat to public health .
In the next round of legislation , House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and some congressional Democrats want to push further .
They favor taking decisions about where to use the money out of the political realm and giving them solely to the independent Fed .
The notion has been circulating for months among progressives in Congress .
If the law is changed , it would give @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beyond stable prices and maximum employment -- by designating the Federal Open Market Committee to be the buyer of last resort of the debt of troubled states and municipalities .
“ If you want money to go somewhere quickly , everybody ’ s idea right now is to get the Fed involved , ” said Ian Katz , an analyst at Capital Alpha Partners in Washington .
“ That doesn ’ t take into account that the Fed has to build these facilities and structures to do something they ’ ve never done @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Treasury are operating under Section 13.3 of the Federal Reserve Act .
It allows the Fed , with Treasury permission , to open a broad-based facility to support troubled areas of the financial markets in an emergency .
Municipal bonds have rallied in anticipation of the intervention .
Last week was the best for state and local debt since 1982 , according to Bloomberg Barclays indexes .
A handful of debt issuers have been able to price deals in the last few days after billions in transactions were scuttled earlier this month , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to regain its footing .
The virus threatens the finances of U.S. states , cities and counties , which rely on taxes on income , sales and stock-market gains .
With the much of the country on lockdown , that revenue has slowed to a trickle .
New York , home of the most U.S. cases of Covid-19 , is projected to lose between $ 10 billion and $ 15 billion of revenue in the fiscal year that starts April 1 .
Ohio state agencies are looking to cut spending by 20 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers .
Eric Kim , head of state-government ratings at Fitch Ratings Inc. , said the $ 150 billion set aside in the stimulus bill for state and local governments is limited to reimbursement and may not be spent .
“ Outside of pandemic hotspots like New York , new spending is not the problem for most states , but rather lost revenue brought on by severely reduced economic activity , ” he said March 27 .
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently expanded the central bank ’ s lending authority to include support @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have had a long-standing interest , however , in the Fed using its power to operate in open markets to do something directly for troubled localities .
“ Do you not believe that the governments of Detroit and Puerto Rico also play a vital role that should be preserved , even if a financial crisis makes it hard for them to borrow money ?
” Tlaib asked Powell .
“ That ’ s not a job for the Fed , ” Powell said .
“ Lending to state and local governments and supporting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not -- that ’ s not part of our mandate.
” “ I hope that in this next bill that we will be able to address the concerns of our state and local governments , ” Pelosi told MSNBC on Tuesday .
“ We need to do more by way of our appropriations , by way of our tax code and by way of policy and also by way of the Fed .
”


washingtonpost--2020-04-01--Analysis | Banker Bonuses Are a Pre-Coronavirus Thing

The next chapter in European regulators ’ crisis playbook is ensuring that the banks don ’ t hand much of their excess capital to investors or keep paying hefty bonuses to senior staff .
Supervisors are trying to make sure that financial firms remain solid by easing their capital rules , thereby freeing up hundreds of billions of dollars — that places a heavy burden on the banks to act responsibly .
Shares in British banks , including HSBC Holdings Plc and Barclays Plc , fell sharply on Wednesday after they halted dividends at the Bank of England ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ popular backlash by discouraging cash bonuses to bankers .
This makes perfect sense , given the support that lenders have already received by way of looser regulation and state loan guarantees .
As we ’ ve heard from supervisors and banking executives in recent weeks , banks — for now — remain part of the solution to the unprecedented economic shock , rather than the problem .
This isn ’ t 2008 .
The excessive banker pay that fueled the risk binge in the run-up to the Lehmans meltdown is still fresh in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s more , during the global financial crisis , banks often took too long to suspend dividends and buybacks , leaving themselves thinly capitalized as losses piled up and hastening the need for government bailouts .
Excessive pay during and soon after the crisis , including at bailed-out institutions , rightly infuriated the taxpayers that were left footing the bill .
More than a dozen years after the financial crisis , a number of Europe ’ s biggest lenders — Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc , ABN Amro Bank NV and Commerzbank @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state owned .
Little surprise then that the U.K. regulator “ expects banks not to pay any cash bonuses to senior staff , including all material risk takers , ” while the European Banking Authority is urging firms to pay conservative bonuses and consider deferring awards for a longer period and in shares .
It could be worse .
While bankers won ’ t be able to cash in on their deferred compensation from previous years ’ share awards after stocks plunged , they will have already received their 2019 variable cash compensation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have plenty of time to prepare for next year .
Take the 1,700 traders and bankers at Barclays , who ’ ll be affected by the measures .
About 45 % of their average pay of 825,000 pounds ( $ 1 million ) consists of fixed pay , 22 % comes from share awards , and 23 % is a cash bonus ( of which 58 % is deferred ) , according to Citigroup Inc. analysts .
While cash is king — especially during an economic crisis — getting more of that pay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a disaster , even if people had to wait a few years to sell .
Assuming stocks don ’ t bounce back too far from their current levels , bankers might be getting a lot of very cheap stock in 2021 .
And however painful the hit , regulators are probably just insisting on something that the markets will probably take care of over the rest of the year anyway .
The first quarter may have been a bumper three months for trading in financial markets because of all of the volatility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coming quarters as the recession really hits .
That would depress bonuses anyway .
The very best financiers will expect to see their fixed pay rise to sweeten the blow , but for most of the thousands of bankers and traders fortunate enough to keep their jobs , lavish compensation will be a thing of the past .
The crisis will be as Darwinian for investment banking as it is for every other pocket of the economy .
Hanging on to your chair will be your 2021 bonus .


washingtonpost--2020-04-01--Distressed Companies Risk Shut Out From Fed’s Loans

Some businesses angling for government relief “ may discover a rude awakening ” if those standards still apply to the new Coronavirus Aid , Relief and Economic Security Act , said Vincent Indelicato , a partner specializing in restructuring and bankruptcy law at Proskauer Rose .
“ This bill may not be the economic life preserver companies and their lenders were hoping for.
” The size of the $ 2 trillion stimulus is unprecedented , surpassing the approximately $ 800 billion package that passed after the 2008 financial crash .
The coronavirus plan provides about $ 500 billion in loans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they retain most of their employees and don ’ t buy back stock .
Airlines are eligible for grants in exchange for giving the government equity stakes .
But the Federal Reserve doesn ’ t typically lend to insolvent borrowers -- those who have trouble meeting their financial obligations or paying down debt when it comes due .
That ’ s to protect against situations where companies access taxpayer or government funds , only to file for bankruptcy and leave the government with mounting losses .
Restrictions were put in place in 2015 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rescue packages wound up stiffing the federal government .
In 2009 , for example , middle-market lender CIT Group Inc. filed bankruptcy less than a year after getting billions in federal aid , wiping out the preferred stock sold to the U.S. Treasury .
Under the Federal Reserve Act , insolvency is determined by an inability to pay debts within 90 days before accessing a federal loan .
How companies fit into the legislation passed by the Senate and House of Representatives last week remains a subject of debate , with business managers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ qualify for relief .
“ Companies in distress probably saw the $ 500 billion headline and imagined they caught the Hampton Jitney , ” Indelicato said , referring to the shuttle service to New York ’ s tony beach retreats .
“ But they may have already missed the bus , ” he said .
“ This is uncharted territory for everyone.
” If a company does get aid and files bankruptcy anyway , the federal loan would likely be treated the same as any other debt under Chapter 11 rules , said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ American Bankruptcy Institute .
Some BDCs are actively examining how their portfolio companies can benefit from the stimulus package .
In a recent note to shareholders , Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. Chief Executive Officer Michael Ewald said , “ We are also actively pursuing opportunities for BCSF to benefit from the recently enacted CARES Act.
” But some companies backed by private equity firms may not be so lucky .
They could find themselves shut out due to affiliation rules that would count the employees of the sponsor along with the borrower @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 500-worker threshold .
There are some 60,000 private equity-backed middle market companies in the U.S. , according to the National Center for the Middle Market , the vast majority leaning on direct lenders for their financing needs .
Companies in the middle market that faced trouble before the virus outbreak are particularly vulnerable and will be the first to go bust , said Aram Ordubegian at restructuring law firm Arent Fox .
For companies pushed into bankruptcy by the coronavirus , the law does loosen some restrictions , according to an analysis by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The debt limit on small businesses seeking to use rules that make it easier for them to reorganize has been increased from $ 2.7 million to $ 7.5 million .
Bankrupt companies hit with financial troubles caused by the virus can also rewrite reorganization plans that have already been approved by a court .
Both provisions expire after one year .
At least two bankrupt oil companies have seen their cases nearly collapse after the pandemic hit , forcing managers to consider rewriting their reorganization plans .
Consumers also got a break in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allow any federal money they receive to count against them in bankruptcy when determining their income and ability to repay creditors , said the ABI ’ s Quackenboss .


washingtonpost--2020-04-27--Gears Jammed Again During Relaunch of Small-Business Relief Program

Shortly after the SBA ’ s Paycheck Protection Program restarted this morning , lenders reported that they either couldn ’ t access the system or were being kicked out as they tried to submit applications on behalf of small-business owners , said Paul Merski of the Independent Community Bankers of America .
Rob Nichols , president and chief executive officer of the American Bankers Association , said in a tweet that his member banks across the country “ are deeply frustrated at their inability to access ” SBA ’ s system .
He said the association has “ raised these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and until they are resolved , banks “ will not be able help more struggling small businesses.
” The glitches echo the first round of the program , when lenders were repeatedly locked out of the loan platform .
The initiative restarted Monday with $ 320 billion in fresh funds after the initial $ 349 billion ran out after just 13 days .
Some lenders had thousands of applications ready to go when the system restarted , fueling concerns the extra money would run out fast .
The second round of funding -- @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plagued by vague guidance and ongoing changes to the process .
One senior banker , describing the process on condition of anonymity , said SBA ’ s decision to allow lenders to submit applications in bulk was unclear and came at the last minute .
The SBA said it notified lenders on Sunday that it would pace the rate of applications into its E-Tran system , meaning that all lenders should be able to submit at the same rate .
The pacing mechanism was designed to prevent any one lender from submitting thousands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A lender that goes above that limit would get timed out of the system , an agency spokesman said .
But with the SBA limiting applications to 350 per hour per lender , according to a person familiar with the matter , it could take days or even weeks to get each bank ’ s applications through -- prolonging the amount of time it will take for small businesses in dire need to get their funds .
Merski said lenders are frustrated because they don ’ t understand how SBA is processing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t provided an adequate explanation .
It raises the fear that borrowers will get shut out because success may depend on who ’ s able to access the system before the funding runs out again , he said .
The program allows for loans of as much as $ 10 million per borrower and is meant to help small businesses affected by the coronavirus pandemic keep workers on their payrolls .
The loans become grants if companies use them for payroll and approved expenses for two months .
Even before the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were concerned the additional funding could also be exhausted in a matter of days , won ’ t be enough to meet demand , and might not reach the entities that need it the most .
The initiative , which first launched April 3 , was marred by delays and glitches after guidance on how to process loans wasn ’ t released until the night before , and many big banks weren ’ t ready to participate or held back until rules became clearer .
Advocates complained that many small mom-and-pop shops were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , public companies and big chains got loans .
Bigger companies including Shake Shack Inc. and the operator of Ruth ’ s Chris steak houses got loans but returned the money after a backlash .
A spokeswoman for the National Basketball Association ’ s Los Angeles Lakers said on Monday the team qualified for a $ 4.6 million loan , but repaid it after learning funds had been depleted .
The American Hotel & Lodging Association , which had won special consideration for hotels in the program after a last-ditch lobbying campaign -- @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hotel owners could end up with a better cash flow position if they didn ’ t take the loans and closed their doors instead .
The SBA and U.S. Treasury Department have sought to avoid pitfalls from the first round .
They issued new guidance last week reaffirming that companies must certify they were affected by the pandemic and telling large firms with access to other capital they shouldn ’ t apply -- and that firms can return loans by May 7 without penalty .
Hedge funds and private-equity firms were told they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion from the first round was declined or returned and will now be made available , SBA Administrator Jovita Carranza said in a tweet on Monday .
Congress also set aside $ 60 billion for small financial institutions with $ 50 billion or less in assets to ensure better access for smaller firms .
To ensure access for all of the more than 5,000 lenders approved to participate in the program , the SBA announced on Sunday it ’ s capping loans from each bank at $ 60 billion and pacing the acceptance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them in batches -- initially set at a minimum of 15,000 and revised Monday to 5,000 or more that must be submitted by 9 p.m. on Monday .


washingtonpost--2020-04-27--SBA Sets Cap on Amount of Relief Loans Banks Can Process

The SBA announced on Sunday it ’ s limiting the maximum dollar amount of loans each bank can issue to $ 60 billion , or 10 % of $ 600 billion allocated so far in two rounds of funding for the Paycheck Protection Program .
The cap is intended is to help all lenders have equal access for their small business clients , the SBA said .
The program , which relaunches Monday after the initial funding of $ 349 billion ran out in just 13 days , allows for loans of as much as $ 10 million per borrower @ @ @ @ @ @ @ affected by the coronavirus pandemic keep workers on their payrolls .
Congress approved an additional $ 320 billion for the program last week , including $ 10 billion for bank fees and processing costs .
Congress also set aside $ 60 billion for small financial institutions with $ 50 billion or less in assets to ensure more access for true mom-and-pop firms , and the cap is exclusive of that amount , SBA said .
The rollout of the program caused an uproar when it emerged that big national chains including Potbelly Corp. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chris steak houses landed $ 10 million or more apiece in loans thanks to a loophole , while millions of very small businesses were left stranded when the program ran out of money .
Advocates for small businesses are concerned the additional funding could also be exhausted in a matter of days , won ’ t be enough to meet demand , and might not reach the entities that need it the most .
Applications are processed on a first-come , first-served basis -- a procedure criticized on Sunday by Bank of America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. lenders have been preparing a barrage of loan applications since the first round of the program ended April 16 .
JPMorgan Chase & Co. , which arranged the most loans in the first round at $ 14 billion , had fully processed about $ 13 billion or more as of Wednesday .
Wells Fargo & Co. has said it invited more than 450,000 customers to apply for a total of about $ 50 billion of financing , after arranging a mere $ 120 million in the first round .
Bank of America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ requests , Moynihan reiterated Sunday on CBS ’ s “ Face the Nation.
” The firm had only arranged roughly $ 5 billion when the initial funding was depleted , people with knowledge of the matter have said .
The Independent Community Bankers of America supports the change to ensure available funding is spread among the more than 5,000 lenders approved to participate in the program , said Paul Merski , who oversees the group ’ s work with Congress .
The changes SBA announced on Sunday also include allowing lenders to send @ @ @ @ @ @ @ batch .
The agency ’ s E-Tran system was overwhelmed by the volume during the initial round and was often inaccessible , delaying the processing of some loans .
Those applications won ’ t be processed until after 10:30 a.m. New York time on Monday , and they ’ ll be handled individually even though they ’ re submitted in bulk , SBA said .


washingtonpost--2020-04-27--Analysis | Boeing Is Grounded in More Ways Than One

There are no coronavirus winners in the aerospace market .
Airbus SE has said it will cut production by a third and some analysts think even that may not be enough .
CEO Guillaume Faury has warned employees that the company is “ bleeding cash ” and needs to drastically cut costs .
Boeing Co. will reportedly announce job cuts and plans to take monthly production of its 787 Dreamliner into the single digits when it announces earnings later this week .
Some 17,000 planes — about 64 % of the global fleet — are now grounded , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warned demand will remain depressed into at least 2021 , so we ’ ve likely only seen the first wave of cancellations and order deferrals .
But once people do start to fly again , the emphasis is going to be on smaller , fuel-efficient models .
Boeing has little to offer on that front right now .
The planemaker announced over the weekend that it ’ s canceling a joint venture with Embraer SA ’ s commercial jet program .
The $ 4.2 billion deal was formalized in 2018 , and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the end of 2019 , even as Boeing grappled with the consequences of a prolonged grounding of its 737 Max following two fatal crashes .
In a sign of investors ’ frustration over the company ’ s handling of that crisis , Boeing shareholders voted Monday to require an independent chairman , crystallizing a structure already put in place late last year with the appointment of Dave Calhoun as CEO and Larry Kellner as head of the board .
Meanwhile , pushback from European Union regulators kept the Embraer deal in limbo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pressing needs for that cash .
Canceling the deal is a prudent move on Boeing ’ s part and the sacrifice may make it more palatable for the government to backstop the company , but it ’ s a strategic loss .
The Embraer tie-up was defensive from the start : Boeing ’ s plan to stymie competition from Bombardier Inc. by getting tariffs slapped on its planes backfired and pushed Bombardier into a deal with Airbus in 2017 , forcing Boeing to find a regional jet partnership of its own .
Walking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the commercial jet market to its European rival .
While Airbus is delaying plans to ramp up production of the Bombardier regional jet — now dubbed the A220 — it remains committed to investing 500 million euros and 1 billion euros in the program this year .
Airbus agreed in February to pay $ 591 million to increase its stake in the A220 to 75 % .
Meanwhile , Boeing can ’ t deliver some 400 Max jets sitting in storage until regulators lift a grounding order , and the timeline for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The plane now isn ’ t expected to return until late summer or early fall , the Wall Street Journal reported Friday , as the Federal Aviation Administration continues to review two software fixes and coronavirus travel bans hinder efforts to collaborate with international pilots and regulators .
With the grounding now having passed the one-year mark , it ’ s easier to cancel Max orders than those for Airbus jets .
Airbus saw nine cancellations for its A320 series in March , compared with 150 lost orders for the Max the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Airbus is cutting production of the A320 line to 40 planes per month .
If it can hold that rate , it should eke out a 55 % to 45 % lead over Boeing in the narrow-body market through 2023 , according to estimates from Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu .
Airbus ’ s longer-range version of the A321neo – the A321XLR – could be a much needed stop-gap option for airlines that need more flying capacity than a narrow-body offering but aren ’ t sure they can fill the seats of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a middle-market aircraft of its own have been shelved for now , essentially allowing the Airbus offering to stand on its own , as my colleague Chris Bryant has noted .
It ’ s in airlines ’ interest to maintain a duopoly between Airbus and Boeing , so the balance of power can only tilt so far in one direction .
But once Boeing and Airbus can move beyond survival mode , the latter is clearly in a better position to capitalize on a rebound in travel demand .


washingtonpost--2020-04-27--Stock Markets That Never Fall Are Up to No Good

Meanwhile , the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-earnings , or CAPE , ratio , a common measure of stock-market valuation , is still at levels that prevailed in the mid-2000s before the financial crisis , suggesting that stocks are still expensive : It ’ s possible that stock market investors simply expect the economic recovery after the end of lockdowns to be swift and robust .
But that ’ s looking increasingly unlikely .
The U.S. has failed to suppress the epidemic , and lifting lockdowns is unlikely to bring people out of their houses as long as the threat of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ closures , mass unemployment and the collapse of global trade will weaken the economy for years to come .
A more disturbing possibility is that investors have decided that the U.S. government will prioritize preserving stock market valuations regardless of what happens to the rest of the economy .
This isn ’ t a completely new idea .
Ever since Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan cut interest rates after the stock market crash of 1987 , there has been talk of a so-called Greenspan Put — a commitment on behalf of the central @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Greenspan Put was probably never just about the stock market .
Although the correlation is very noisy , stocks are generally believed to be a leading indicator of recession .
By cutting rates as soon as the market fell , Fed leaders were probably just attempting to get in front of a coming downturn .
The current situation might be different .
President Donald Trump clearly views the stock market as a key barometer of his own success as a leader .
It was only when the market plunged in March that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the seriousness it deserved .
This might be because of his own stockholdings , or it might be the result of years of consuming conservative op-eds that treat the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the be-all and end-all of economic health .
But Trump isn ’ t the only one who ’ s personally invested in the markets .
At the beginning of the 1990s , only about a third of Americans owned stocks ; now , more than half do .
The rise of 401 ( k ) retirement plans and shifts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ returns democratized equity ownership .
Although wealthy Americans still own the bulk of stocks , the middle class has enough of a stake that propping up the stock market is probably a political winner .
That could influence Congress , future presidents and even the Fed .
There is therefore now a possibility that the government — the Fed , Congress and the president — may all reliably act to buttress the stock market , independently of whether such action supports the economy .
Call it the Golden Put .
One way the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Federal Reserve buys common stocks .
This now is against the rules , but other central banks , such as the Bank of Japan , do it regularly .
Already , coronavirus has prompted the Fed to bend the rules about buying corporate bonds , using off-balance-sheet vehicles .
Some now are suggesting that the Fed do the same thing to buy stocks .
This would support prices , but it probably wouldn ’ t do much to support economic activity because debt financing is already so cheap .
Another way of implementing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to use bailouts and other legislative action to support corporate profit margins .
Ideally , emergency loans and grants should support both big and small businesses .
But if the programs are structured so that small businesses lose out , it could mean that concentration grows in industries such as retail .
That would preserve profit margins — and hence long-term stock market valuations — but it could hurt economic growth through higher prices and lower wages .
The Golden Put would change the fundamental nature of the stock market .
Traditionally , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , offering higher returns than bonds in exchange for forcing investors to endure regular declines and even crashes .
When things go bad , stocks are supposed to be the first thing that takes a loss .
But if the government commits to supporting stock prices , both the risk and reward of stocks could drop .
Propping up stock prices reduces risk by removing the possibility of crashes .
But knowing that the Golden Put existed would draw lots of new money into the market , raising demand and pushing up prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mean a big windfall for current stockholders , but it would reduce future expected returns for the new investors .
If the government treats stock prices as a key economic target independent of the rest of the economy , it could both distort growth and turn stocks into something more akin to bonds or cash .
Both the Fed and Congress should be very wary of establishing a Golden Put .