washingtonpost--2020-03-24--Doctors’ Practices Face Cash Crunch as Pandemic Halts Economy

In many respects , medical practices resemble other small businesses that have suffered from the economic ripple effects caused by the coronavirus .
Demand for some of their most fundamental and lucrative services has withered , replaced by a rolling crisis that ’ s upended the lives of workers and customers , and caused acute pain that could throw their long-term financial health into doubt .
Primary-care doctors are counseling patients who may have Covid-19 while trying to treat those with more familiar ailments through online visits that pay much less than routine in-person appointments .
“ I ’ m @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mullins , one of four physicians at Stoney Batter Family Medicine in Wilmington , Delaware , which has seen much of its routine business move online .
“ The phones are ringing , the messages are coming in .
Everybody needs something , everybody wants something , but there ’ s no one here.
” The increasing financial burden faced by primary-care doctors could compound stress on the broader health-care system caused by the new coronavirus .
If doctors shut their doors because of staffing shortfalls or a cash crunch , sick patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the pandemic .
Many practices are telling patients to stay home to avoid exposure for both themselves and health-care workers alike .
“ It ’ s the right thing to do , ” said Farzad Mostashari , chief executive officer of Aledade .
The company supports about 550 physician practices , including Mullins ’ s , that care for a total of 2 million patients .
“ The very things that the practices are doing to protect the community and to protect their patients are financial ruination for them.
” Doctors are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ care as part of a broader measures to address economic pain caused by the outbreak .
A group of medical societies urged congressional leaders on March 20 to require phone visits to be paid at the same rate as in-person care and to provide direct financial support to clinicians and their practices .
“ Phone visits were given out for free for years , so why are insurance companies going to start paying doctors for something that they know we ’ re going to do for free ?
” said McLean , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Medical Group of Yale New Haven Health in Connecticut .
The difference is that calls used to supplement higher-paying face-to-face care , not replace it .
At Tryon Medical Partners in Charlotte , North Carolina , in-person patient visits have declined as much as 30 % since March 14 , with revenue down about as much .
The 92-doctor practice set up Covid-19 testing sites and eight patients have tested positive .
Many of the group ’ s 130,000 patients need ongoing treatment to manage chronic conditions , said CEO Dale Owen , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep these patients out of the hospital to allow the hospitals to do their job , ” Owen said .
“ They ’ re doing a heroic job .
We have to do a heroic job to keep people out of the hospital.
” Owen said the state ’ s Blue Cross Blue Shield plan and UnitedHealthcare are paying for virtual care on par with in-person visits , but other large insurers are not .
A spokesman for CVS Health ’ s Aetna unit said telemedicine is reimbursed at the same rate as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that it would temporarily pay providers the same for telehealth as office visits .
Cigna Corp. didn ’ t respond to requests for comment .
“ Everybody ’ s afraid they ’ re going to say , ‘ Well , doctors make a lot of money .
We ’ re not going to bail them out in this situation , ’ ” said Nisha Mehta , a radiologist in North Carolina who runs online networking groups for physicians .
Doctors are disheartened as lawmakers discuss aid for hospitals and other industries like airlines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will step up to treat a surge of Covid-19 patients , and want to make sure their regular practices are intact when the pandemic ebbs , she said .


washingtonpost--2020-03-25--Winners and Losers in Congress’s $2 Trillion Virus Rescue Plan

Companies receiving a government loan would be subject to a ban on stock buybacks through the term of the loan plus one additional year .
They also would have to limit executive bonuses and take steps to protect workers .
The Treasury Department would have to disclose the terms of loans or other aid , and a new Treasury inspector general would oversee the lending program .
The bill carves out more than $ 350 billion in aid for small businesses , much of which would be in loans through the Small Business Administration and banks , guaranteed by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forgiven provided the businesses meet certain requirements , including limiting reductions in pay and layoffs , though with more flexibility for employers than the original Senate bill .
Unemployment insurance payments were boosted and recipients would be eligible to receive those funds for an average of four months , up from three in the prior GOP plan .
It also would extend eligibility to the self-employed and workers in the gig economy such as drivers for Uber Technologies Inc .
The legislation calls for $ 117 billion for hospitals and veterans ’ health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion for personal protective equipment , ventilators and other medical supplies for federal and state response efforts .
It also includes $ 11 billion for vaccines , therapeutics , diagnostics and other medical needs , and at least $ 250 million to improve the capacity of health-care facilities to respond to medical events , according to a summary by the Senate Appropriations Committee .
The bill would require insurers to cover tests for Covid-19 .
Labs would be required to post cash prices for the tests on public websites , and insurers would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ privately negotiated rate .
Any vaccines or other preventive services would have to be covered with no cost-sharing .
Commercial borrowers with federally backed loans could potentially skip payments for at least 30 days with a possible extension of up to 60 additional days .
Unlike individual consumers , businesses would have to document financial hardship and they would be barred from evicting tenants as long as they are missing mortgage payments .
The stimulus package includes up to $ 23.5 billion in farm aid .
It would provide $ 9.5 billion in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ producers and growers of specialty crops such as fruits and vegetables .
And it would authorize $ 14 billion in new borrowing authority for the U.S. Agriculture Department ’ s Commodity Credit Corp. , a Depression-era entity the Trump administration has used for its farm-bailout programs the past two years .

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washingtonpost--2020-03-25--Analysis | Hoarding Chloroquine Won’t Cure Coronavirus

A potential solution is innovation , not just in cleverly repurposing old drugs , but in how we test whether they work .
While cautious use of existing treatments for the sickest patients should continue , simultaneously running a wide variety of ambitious clinical trials will help get more drugs to more patients and could help rapidly confirm what works best , the sooner we can generate data that helps doctors give the right drugs to the right people , the better .
Excitement about chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine isn ’ t entirely baseless .
Other countries have seen enough promise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While a widely covered positive French trial that combined hydroxychloroquine with an antibiotic was small and flawed , the results warrant further study .
The fact that these are cheap generics with a long history of use could make them especially helpful .
On the other hand , this group of medicines can have side effects , and an abstract for a Chinese trial detailed in a recent research note by Evercore ISI analyst Umer Raffat describes poor results for hydroxychloroquine in mild patients .
We know far too little to put too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Traditional trials are rigorously designed , generally run without deviation from the initial plan , and are only analyzed once the data is ready according to a pre-specified plan .
Such trials are standard for a reason ; it ’ s a battle-tested process and statistically reliable .
But it can be slow and inflexible , which calls for new tools such as so-called adaptive trials that evolve based on incoming data .
These more recently developed tests let researchers use data from their ongoing trials to count out treatments or doses that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arms based on emerging evidence .
They can also allocate more patients to regimens that are looking good , and focus recruiting on patients most likely to benefit .
Well-run adaptive trials can be smaller , faster , and more ethical , all features that make them well suited to this moment .
And they are growing in popularity .
Some researchers and parts of the drug industry have been slow to change , however .
Now is the time to push the envelope .
The World Health Organization is taking a positive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adaptive trial testing multiple coronavirus approaches , including chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine , Gilead Sciences Inc. ’ s remdesivir and an HIV drug .
The worthy priority of the trial is simplicity ; it aims to collect data from as many places as possible , without strict requirements that overwhelm health workers .
It ’ s a crucial effort and a good blueprint .
It needs to be supplemented by further similar studies in the U.S. and around the world to broaden access and answer emerging questions .
The WHO trial doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ HIV drug it is testing has already failed to show a benefit in some small trials .
The stage of infection , symptoms , age , and pre-existing conditions will likely create variation in how people respond to treatments and what they need , further underscoring the need for a wide variety of flexible designs .
It ’ d be a good thing if the president used his office to support responsible efforts to speed development .
But perhaps his cheering section should be behind the scenes , rather than behind the podium @


washingtonpost--2020-03-25--Analysis | How to Lock Down 2.6 Billion People Without Killing the Economy

Still , suppression only buys time and is not an end in itself , and the economic and political costs involved raise a host of dilemmas for countries that have never imposed such draconian measures during peacetime .
New data suggest the euro-area economy is already being battered , with Germany ’ s struggling manufacturing industry slipping deeper into recession and France ’ s registering sharp declines .
Are there ways to ease the burden on the economy , even at the margin ?
Who should be forced to go out and work at a time when even jogging in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reasons ?
And what if lockdowns have to last longer than we think ?
France and Spain have extended theirs ; Italy has tightened its measures further .
The outlook is unclear.France offers an instructive example .
Like other European leaders , President Emmanuel Macron has rightly pledged fiscal stimulus plans worth around 2 % of gross domestic product and promised to do whatever it takes to offset the cost of a shutdown — echoing the “ bazooka ” backdrop of neighboring governments and central bankers .
But one week on from having @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pain has clearly exceeded the government ’ s worst nightmares .
The industrial sector is running at about 25 % of capacity , construction sites have fallen silent , and electricity consumption has fallen 20 % — worse than the declines in Italy or Spain after one week of lockdown , according to French newspaper Les Echos .
One way to ease the pain is getting more people back to work , even if there ’ s not much consumer demand for their wares .
But exhorting people simply to “ keep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — or commanding key workers into battle while others stay home , as Boris Johnson has done — isn ’ t going to cut it .
Picking and choosing between essential or non-essential sectors ignores the integrated nature of supply chains .
And people who don ’ t have the luxury of being able to work from home — those who power factories , construction sites and the gig economy workers — are understandably worried about their health ; they feel they ’ re being pressured to flout social-distancing rules for the sake @ @ @ @ @ @ @ France needs now is the prospect of a labor-relations battle , or a strike threat as currently seen in Italy , following on the heels of the drawn-out Gilets Jaunes and pension reform protests .
To balance these pressures , there should be a sector-by-sector approach to see how factories , construction sites and offices can be re-tooled in an era of strict social distancing , along with a ramp-up in resources like masks and medical equipment .
The overstretched health-care sector is obviously top of the list , but this is starting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too : Construction sites are redesigning their teams in order to avoid people sharing vehicles or working too close to each other .
Other nudges include bonus checks for those still working , who are often among the least well paid in society .
Several supermarket chains in France are offering 1,000-euro bonuses to their cashiers and shelf-stockers.If this is a war effort , there also needs to be more solidarity on the home front .
Big companies should be prodded to help keep their small-business suppliers afloat .
Morale won ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sense that large firms are riding out the pain at others ’ expense .
And governments should keep an eye on the technology and gig economy players that are emerging as key to keeping basic services flowing — the likes of Amazon.com Inc. , Uber Technologies Inc. and Deliveroo — to make sure their workers have the protections and safety net they deserve.These short-term fixes will also need to be accompanied with medium-term plans to bridge the gap between a lockdown — which realistically should only have a life span of a few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine , which could take a year .
For example , young people could be sent back to work first to keep at-risk populations home .
But that will require far more testing than is currently being done , to know who has caught and recovered from Covid-19 and who hasn ’ t .
Testing , tracing and quarantining , as practiced by South Korea , should be part of the longer-term fight.Lockdowns “ aren ’ t a panacea , ” Macron is reported to have said this week , in response to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ regime .
He ’ s right .
All leaders should consider suppression as only part of the response , alongside allocating more resources to over-stretched hospitals , more economic protections for those on the home front , and more testing when restrictions are finally lifted .
That will go a long way towards avoiding a cure that ’ s worse than the disease .


washingtonpost--2020-03-25--Analysis | Why Coronavirus Drugs, Vaccine Require More Time

Notably , U.S. President Donald Trump has said he believes in the power of two malaria drugs , chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine , to fight the virus .
His comments were based on small , short-term studies of the kind that many doctors conduct when faced with a new , lethal disease with no proven treatment .
These studies , however , weren ’ t designed to prove the effectiveness of the drugs against the novel coronavirus .
Even if a treatment shows promise in laboratory , animal or even early human experiments , rigorous testing is needed to prove that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
After Trump touted chloroquine as a “ game changer , ” an American man died and his wife was hospitalized after they self-medicated with the drug .
Nigeria reported two cases of poisoning with it .
That requires carefully structured and monitored tests known as clinical trials .
Typically , these studies are designed to show that patients who get the drug do better than those who don ’ t , and that the results aren ’ t a product of chance .
The trials try to subtract all the other influences @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effectiveness of the drug .
For one thing , patients often recover from viral illness on their own , or improve because of supportive care such as rest and hydration .
And some really sick patients might not respond to treatment no matter how effective it is .
Treatments that don ’ t have approval from regulators such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration should be viewed with extreme caution .
The FDA and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission have warned multiple companies to stop selling unproven treatments for coronavirus .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ against one infection and shown to be safe can be tested for effectiveness against another in a matter of months .
Experimental drugs may take longer to test , as they have to go through initial studies to evaluate whether they are safe .
Other factors that can slow the process include the supply of drug candidates and the availability of patients to test them in .
The trials also have to be approved by ethics watchdogs and drug regulators .
According to a 2017 review , the median time for regulators to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 333 days in the U.S. , 422 days in Europe , and 639 days in China .
China has since expedited its process .
When drugs are deemed to fill an immediate need , regulators can speed them through the approval process using a number of paths .
More than 100 clinical trials have been launched in China to study everything from anti-flu drugs and antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients , to traditional Chinese herbal medicine .
A smaller number have been announced in countries including the U.S. , South Korea and Thailand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the most promising agent remdesivir , an experimental antiviral made by Gilead Sciences Inc. originally as a treatment for Ebola .
In animal studies , it produced encouraging results against related coronaviruses that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS ) and Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS ) .
Remdesivir trial results are expected from China in late April .
Larger trials of chloroquine are starting .
In a study in China published March 18 , AbbVie Inc. ’ s Kaletra , an HIV treatment combining two drugs , failed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Another small , preliminary trial of the flu medication favipiravir , or Avigan , made by Fujifilm Holdings Corp. produced more promising results .
Moving at record speed , researchers began preliminary human testing of an experimental Covid-19 vaccine in mid-March in the Seattle area .
It was developed by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in collaboration with the biotechnology company Moderna Inc .
Some of the world ’ s biggest companies also are working on vaccine projects .
GlaxoSmithKline has teamed up with the Chinese-based Clover Biopharmaceuticals , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in separate collaborations with the U.S. government ’ s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority .
Anthony Fauci , director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , said that it would take about a year and a half to complete trials , scale up production and make a vaccine widely available .
There ’ s no guarantee trials will yield a successful vaccine , however .
Moderna ’ s experimental product is a so-called messenger RNA vaccine , an unconventional approach that has yet to produce a vaccine licensed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 800 people in a 2002-2003 outbreak , and there still isn ’ t an approved vaccine .


washingtonpost--2020-03-25--Analysis | Spain Sells $11 Billion of Debt, No Problem at All

Raising such a jumbo deal did mean Spain had to offer a yield that was 18 basis points higher than an existing , slightly shorter seven-year bond .
Its last syndicated issue , earlier this year , came with a lower yield than its existing debt .
However , the world has changed profoundly and issuers have to be prepared to dangle a carrot to entice investor demand .
In the circumstances , this wasn ’ t much of a premium for investors .
A similar phenomenon was also evident for the European Investment Bank , whose three-year bond deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its existing equivalent .
Likewise , premiums were in evidence Monday for new deals from the German States of Bavaria and Saxony-Anhalt .
Though , again , they weren ’ t huge , which shows how desperate investors are to find somewhere to put their money .
Corporate deals are making a comeback too : Unilever NV and Engie SA last week followed the trend for higher yields .
Company issuance has seen the biggest decline in the bond market this year , unsurprisingly give the business shutdowns , running nearly 20 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Coca Cola European Partners , Sanofi and Nestle SA all came to the market with multi-tranche issues on Tuesday , illustrating the improvement in conditions .
Heineken NV , Danaher Corp. and Carrefour SA were doing benchmark euro deals on Wednesday .
The European Central Bank can breathe a bit easier as its 1 trillion euros of quantitative easing planned for the rest of this year is starting to take effect .
As there will be considerable emphasis on its corporate sector purchasing program , many of the new investment grade deals should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ECB , if they ’ re from Europe-based issuing entities .
Wednesday has also seen the return of major banks with Lloyds Banking Group Plc , HSBC Holdings Plc , and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. all bringing euro deals .
Credit spreads ( the yield on corporate debt relative to sovereign benchmarks ) have ballooned since late February , offering better returns for investors than government bonds if they have cash to put to work .
Those spreads will start to narrow , but the virus has created a new paradigm , whereby @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a successful deal .
Normality is returning to European debt capital markets , but the heady days of super-tight credit spreads and incredibly low non-core government bond yields look to be over .
Marcus Ashworth is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering European markets .
He spent three decades in the banking industry , most recently as chief markets strategist at Haitong Securities in London .


washingtonpost--2020-06-02--U.S. Cases Rise 1.2%; NYC Keeps Monday Reopening: Virus Update


washingtonpost--2020-06-04--Analysis | Is the Coronavirus Really Getting Weaker?

Caruso did acknowledge the possibility of other explanations and a future resurgence in an interview ; even so , the notion of a weakening virus is understandably popular and may well emerge in the variety of other nations that are past the worst of their outbreaks .
There ’ s a high burden of proof for making such a claim , though , let alone using it as a basis for public health decisions .
It most definitely hasn ’ t been met , and the mutation argument could lead to bad choices if taken too seriously .
Viruses change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
These mutation-driven shifts are why we need new flu vaccines every year , and why seasonal outbreaks vary .
There ’ s also an evolutionary trade-off between deadliness and transmission — a virus that kills too many hosts can ’ t spread — so some become milder .
Scientists working on vaccines speed up the mutation process to produce so-called live attenuated virus vaccines , which contain strains that produce immunity to the original virus but not a severe illness .
The question is whether the virus that causes Covid-19 , known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on its own .
There ’ s an enormous difference between a lull caused by a persistent shift in the virus , and one caused by other dynamics .
The first means that the virus has a real chance of petering out as a major threat over time .
The second scenario means that the virus could return with a vengeance if countries and individuals put their guard down .
At the moment , there just doesn ’ t seem to be enough evidence to support the idea of a shift .
Coronaviruses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Covid-19 doesn ’ t appear to be different .
Most mutations don ’ t result in any kind of meaningful change to how a virus acts .
Early studies of SARS-CoV2 genomes have found genetic changes but not a lineage that meets the definition of a new strain , a branch of the virus that ’ s functionally different from others .
One pre-print look at over 15,000 genomes from the University College of London ’ s Genetics Institute examined the possible emergence of a more transmissible strain .
The mutations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or slightly harmful to Covid ’ s spread , and a less infectious version is less likely to stick around .
The researchers didn ’ t look at the possibility of a mutation that makes the virus less deadly , but said most recurrent genetic changes they ’ d seen so far don ’ t seem like evolutionary adaptations .
Even for pandemic flu — a virus much more given to rapid change than the one that causes Covid-19 — a few months would be a short timeline for a widespread functional mutation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evolutionary case for a virus like SARS-CoV2 , which has already managed to infect more than 6 million people and often causes mild symptoms , to quickly get milder .
If anything , it seems more likely that it would be genetically stable .
Without a lot more data and information about the specific populations that are being compared for both swabs and clinical experiences , the evidence mutation fans provide remains anecdotal and may be compromised by selection bias .
Less viral activity in lab experiments as described by Caruso could be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a very early result and it doesn ’ t appear to have been confirmed or tied to a biologic explanation .
If the virus isn ’ t shifting into a milder form , what else can explain why it doesn ’ t seem as bad in some places ?
The fact is , many other things could be at work .
The virus may well appear weaker in areas on the other side of a peak because expanded testing and surveillance are catching people earlier in the course of their illness , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were only tested if they got sick enough to brave a packed hospital .
Clinicians also know more about how to treat people , and are no longer as overwhelmed .
A solid portion of those most vulnerable due to a weakened immune system or other factors have likely already been infected , especially in hard-hit areas in Italy .
Those that haven ’ t are better protected by public health measures , a lower level of community spread , possible temporary seasonal effects , and at least some degree of acquired immunity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the most prudent path for a long time to come is to treat Covid-19 as the deadly threat it was in Italy a short few weeks ago and continues to be around the world .


washingtonpost--2020-06-03--U.S. Cases Rise 1.2%; N.Y. Deaths Hit 10-Week Low: Virus Update

Belgium will allow bars and restaurants to reopen on June 8 after 12 weeks of being shut , with a @ @ @ @ @ a.m.
It ’ s also easing restrictions on social contacts .
Citizens may have contacts @ @ @ @ @ starting next week .
Prime Minister Sophie Wilmes also said Belgium will reopen its borders @ @ @ @ @ , Schengen Treaty countries and the U.K. as of June 15 , with the understanding @ @ @ @ @ for themselves about border reopenings .
Cinemas and theaters won ’ t be allowed to @ @ @ @ @ and nightlife events remain banned until the end of August .


washingtonpost--2020-06-04--Analysis | Millennials Are Happy to Get on Planes Again

But anyone paying attention to these two companies ’ earnings presentations this week will have concluded that Wizz is much better placed to profit as Covid-19 travel restrictions are lifted .
It sounded pretty upbeat about demand and wants to expand its network , as the lumbering debt-laden Lufthansa prepares to shrink .
Wizz is one of the few airlines whose shares have risen over the past year .
Lufthansa ’ s core network airlines derive about half of their revenues from business travel , which won ’ t recover quickly — lots of companies have banned employees from flying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of customers fly for business and two-thirds are traveling to visit friends and family or work overseas .
Those trips didn ’ t happen while countries were in lockdown , and people are itching to see their loved ones again .
Wizz is fortunate that its core central and eastern European markets suffered less severe coronavirus outbreaks than places like the U.K. , Spain and Italy .
It also has a relatively young customer base : The average Wizz passenger is a sprightly 36 years old .
Three-quarters of Lufthansa ’ s passengers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mask wearing and other hygiene measures will make flying safe for everyone , the young might be willing to risk boarding a plane sooner — they ’ re less likely to get the worst Covid-19 infections and die .
( Millennials aren ’ t just keen to fly , they ’ re investing their cash in airlines too . )
Happily for Airbus SE , the aircraft manufacturer , Wizz still plans to take delivery of the planes it has ordered and it claims airports are begging it to add routes .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its planned flights over the busy summer quarter and as much as 80 % during the autumn and winter .
As with Ireland ’ s Ryanair Holdings Plc , Wizz ’ s low costs should help it offer cheap fares to stimulate demand , and it hopes to attract customers with new bases in Milan and Abu Dhabi .
Having been quick to cut about a fifth of its staff , Wizz is now consuming less than 100 million euros of cash a month .
By contrast , Lufthansa expects to have restored @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the autumn .
Demand should recover by 2023 , but even then it expects 100 of its 760-strong fleet will be surplus .
The heavy restructuring required to restore profitability mostly lies ahead still .
In the meantime , the German group is burning through about 800 million euros a month of cash , excluding a 2.5 billion-euro ticket refund liability .
Without a bailout , Lufthansa would be sunk and it must now devote all of its energies to paying down debt .
Naturally , this bifurcation of Europe ’ s airlines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Wizz ’ s stock has rallied more than 80 % from a March low and it ’ s higher than it was a year ago .
Lufthansa ’ s shares are deeply negative over the same period .
While a big bailout is nice , a handout doesn ’ t guarantee you a competitive business model .


washingtonpost--2020-06-04--Analysis | This Is Bad, But It’s Not Looking Like the Depression

Today ’ s jobless numbers aren ’ t directly comparable with those from the 1930s because before 1948 the government didn ’ t collect employment data the way it does now .
Still , people have tried .
On its website , the Bureau of Labor Statistics cites 1970s research by John Dunlop of Harvard University and Walter Galenson of Cornell University calculating that the annual jobless rate peaked at 24.9 % in 1933 .
The National Industrial Conference Board , a business organization now known as the Conference Board , estimated at the time that the monthly unemployment rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and 1933 , peaking at 25.6 % in May 1933 .
Kathryn Edwards , an associate economist at RAND Corp. , a research organization , says it would be a mistake to put too much faith in those Depression-era estimates .
What ’ s safe to say , she says , is that “ this is the worst we ’ ve ever had ” since then .
The longer joblessness lasts , the more damage it does .
Many economists expect the unemployment rate to fall quickly as the economy reopens .
According @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the unemployed in April were considered to be on temporary layoff , versus a pre-recession average of 13 % .
On the other hand , that 78 % figure is inflated by a change in the BLS ’ s methodology .
Usually layoffs are considered temporarily only if a person has been given a return date or expects to be recalled within six months .
The BLS said in a note accompanying the April jobs report that “ in light of the uncertainty of circumstances related to the pandemic ” it decided to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the person didn ’ t know when he or she was returning .
Wages fell broadly during the Depression , dropping an estimated 34 % in manufacturing and 17 % in railroads from late 1929 to 1932 , according to a 1933 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research .
Prices for farm products -- a sector that then involved about a quarter of all workers -- fell in the early years of the Depression because demand was so weak : An index of farm prices fell to 44 in 1932 from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Even though consumer prices also fell , the drop in earnings meant that even many people who still had jobs couldn ’ t keep up with interest payments on mortgages and other types of debt .
Things aren ’ t likely to be as bad this time , although prices did fall in March and April and some companies have cut pay temporarily .
The Federal Reserve said in April that most of the system ’ s 12 regional banks reported “ general wage softening and salary cuts except for high-demand sectors such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ‘ hardship ’ or ‘ appreciation ’ pay increases.
” This is one category in which the current recession is likely to appear worse than the Depression .
Bankruptcy filings remained rare in the 1930s in large part because the law was tilted against debtors and bankruptcy carried more of a stigma than it does now .
Until the Chandler Act of 1938 companies filing usually had to liquidate their assets , instead of getting to work out a restructuring plan .
In contrast , there ’ s no doubt that the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , although they are only starting to show in the data .
Hertz Global , J.C. Penney Co. and Neiman Marcus were among the 28 companies that sought bankruptcy protection in May , bringing the total this year to 99 and putting 2020 on pace to top the 2008 level .
A 1932 study by the New York City Health Dept .
found that 20.5 % of the children examined were suffering from malnutrition .
The problem was likely worse elsewhere because New York at least offered food aid of $ 2.39 a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ textbook .
That ’ s the equivalent of $ 60 today .
Access to food is also a problem in this recession .
In a Household Pulse Survey conducted May 14-19 , the Census Bureau found 14 % of households with children under 18 didn ’ t have enough to eat sometimes or often in the previous week .
In the early years of the Depression there was no safety net aside from help provided by churches , charities , labor unions and family members .
The first state unemployment insurance system was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Security and the Works Progress Administration , two of the most famous New Deal programs , weren ’ t signed into law until 1935 .
A measure of how little the federal government did is that it ran a budget surplus in 1930 and a deficit of only half a percent of gross domestic product in 1931 .
Despite that stringency , Franklin Roosevelt ran for president in 1932 on a promise to balance the budget .
The biggest the deficit ever got during the 1930s was 5.8 % in 1934 .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quickly and more aggressively .
As a result of large stimulus programs , in April the federal budget deficit nearly doubled to 9 % of GDP .
Government social benefits accounted for a third of personal income in April , up from 19 % before the pandemic hit , according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis .
“ Those who lost their jobs and were able to file for unemployment are doing pretty well , ” says Susan Houseman , research director at the W.E .
Upjohn Institute for Employment Research in Kalamazoo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making more than when they were fully employed.
” The Federal Reserve helped cause the stock market crash of October 1929 , which triggered the Depression , by raising interest rates to stop speculation in stocks .
In 1932 it raised rates again to defend the value of the dollar .
At the same time , prices were falling , so real rates — that is , rates adjusted for inflation or deflation — reached crippling highs .
In 1932 , rates on four- to six-month commercial paper borrowings were 2.73 % but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a real interest rate of 14.73 % .
When money costs that much it strongly discourages borrowing .
This April , in contrast , the average interest rate on three-month commercial paper was 0.98 % and the yearly change in consumer prices was 0.3 % , for a more affordable real interest rate of 0.68 % .
Talk of another Depression was rampant in March , when the stock market seemed to be in freefall .
The Standard & Poor ’ s 500 index fell 34 % in just over a month , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 1930s .
But the index has since recovered most of the lost ground , which helps economic growth by making consumers and businesses feel wealthier and more optimistic -- though there ’ s no shortage of worries that the market may be too sanguine about the course of the pandemic .
In the Depression the predecessor to the S & P 500 fell 86 % from peak to trough .


washingtonpost--2020-05-31--Analysis | The Golden Rule Is Dying of Covid-19

Lukes ’ s allegory is simple but devastatingly effective .
Professor Caritat is an expert in enlightenment philosophy in the country of Militaria , which emphasizes order above all else , and sounds like contemporary China .
He is imprisoned for his subversive beliefs .
Members of the opposition spring him from jail and send him on a trek through the neighboring countries of Utilitaria , Communitaria and Libertaria in search of the best way to run society .
Everybody knows that they hate the military government , but what should they replace it with ?
When governments are perceived @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discipline breaks down .
Exhibit A is the remarkable story of Dominic Cummings , the Svengali-like political adviser to U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson .
Britain has a strong tradition of accepting authority , and the population had complied with a strict lockdown with minimal protest — until it was revealed that Cummings had broken the lockdown rules to drive 260 miles with his wife and child when he thought the family might have contracted Covid-19 .
It led to an outcry , especially as Johnson refused to dismiss him , claiming that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and was entitled to use his discretion ( opening the way for many more Britons to stop social distancing ) , and Cummings refused to apologize .
For the many Britons who had gone without funerals or visits to elderly parents , this was a fatal philosophical blow .
If Cummings had broken the golden rule , and the government had supported him , there was no reason why they should follow .
The ministers defending Cummings were “ telling the nation that Dom ’ s only crime was loving his family too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Briton who obeyed the rules that they loved their family too little , ” the columnist Jonathan Freedland wrote in the Guardian .
Resisting authority is one thing .
Fighting for liberty is another .
Much depends upon exactly what liberty means , and Isaiah Berlin framed that moral debate .
In a famous 1959 essay called “ Two Concepts of Liberty , ” Berlin suggested that libertarians practiced either “ positive ” liberty , which entails the active freedom to do something , or “ negative ” liberty , which is freedom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these two kinds of liberty are different .
The U.S. Constitution is rooted in negative liberty , the freedom to be left alone .
But the protesters who entered the Michigan capitol in Lansing with assault rifles in April and May were plainly pursuing positive liberty .
Berlin , who was born in Latvia in 1909 when it was part of the Russian empire , believed that opened doors to totalitarianism .
What , in any case , do the protesters want ?
A mandatory lockdown clearly violates any definition of liberty , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ requiring people to wear a mask when entering a shop ?
In one incident , a man was caught on video demanding the right to enter a Costco unmasked “ because I woke up in a free country.
” In Albany , Minnesota , chanting protesters tried to pull the mask off a reporter , asserting their positive liberty to violate his negative liberty .
Various people have been caught on camera deliberately coughing or spitting on people asking them to put on a mask .
Libertarians often face criticism that they are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Such incidents confirm the stereotype and embarrass many libertarians .
Resistance against incursions by an untrustworthy state does not justify violence against people who wear masks , or even going maskless in public .
As Lukes put it : “ You are putting other people in danger and you are putting yourself in danger .
If liberty just means no restraint on something we might want to do , there are obvious deprivations of liberty that are totally justified .
Like driving drunk.
” There were rarely any other shoppers there , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ let us go inside shirtless or shoeless .
It didn ’ t matter that no one else was there , or that the shirts were no cleaner than our skin , or that we would take them off as soon as we left .
We wore them because that ’ s what the proprietor required .
It was a matter of respect .
If no version of moral philosophy has triumphed , what ideas are left standing ?
Is rhetorical allegiance to principles , such as the golden rule , liberty or the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cover for tribalism ?
As the virus has so far hit the geographical regions where one tribe of Americans lives , while mostly sparing the other , principles tend to rationalize behavior instead of guiding it .
For people in the densely populated cities of the Acela corridor , who tend to be politically liberal , wearing masks and following government instructions seems like a good idea .
For the more sparsely populated states in the middle of the country , whose citizens are philosophically more inclined to distrust the government , it @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-05-30--Analysis | The Pandemic Isn’t India’s Only Curve to Flatten

The squiggly line that joins the cost of money at different maturities — the yield curve — deserves just as much attention .
It ’ s unhealthy in an economy headed for a recession that 10-year funds cost nearly 5.75 % , almost 275 basis points more than the three-month treasury bill yield .
The central bank is slashing short-term rates and flooding banks with liquidity , and yet the long-term cost of capital is refusing to head lower .
In large developing economies deeply challenged by the virus , from Brazil to Indonesia , the yield curve , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shorter-term bill rates , has steepened appreciably from a year ago .
In the U.S. , Europe and Japan , as well as in China , where the outbreak started , the difference has either remained at similar levels or gone down .
Bond investors are more comfortable with fiscal expansion as a strategy to deal with the pandemic in countries that can issue large amounts of debt in their own currencies without facing exchange-rate instability or runaway inflation .
The surge in India ’ s yield differentials has been both pronounced and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to begin with for corporate borrowers , and it ’ s getting more expensive .
This comes just as migrant rural workers have been driven out of urban production centers because of shuttered factories , unpaid wages , and — in many cases — no food or shelter .
Even if this labor is safely put back on , say , road construction , concessionaires might still go bankrupt before completing any projects .
That ’ s because their annuity payments from the government are linked to falling short-term policy rates , whereas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and sticky .
To face a downturn with a stubbornly elevated cost of borrowing is a recipe for a vicious cycle in which the economy produces and earns little , consumes less , and fetches meager taxes for the government .
This limits avenues for purchasing faster growth with fiscal pump-priming .
About 10 % of real gross domestic product may be permanently lost , according to Crisil , an Indian affiliate of S & P Global Inc. Official data released Friday pegged GDP growth at 3.1 % in the March quarter from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4.1 % in the previous three months .
Worse is yet to come .
Getting stuck in a slow-growth , deflationary rut is a real possibility because capital was already expensive .
Credit spreads , or what businesses have to pay over and above government bond yields , were wide even before the pandemic .
Creditors ’ trust in corporate borrowers — especially real-estate developers and shadow banks — was ebbing .
Now , when 30 % -plus of most credit portfolios are taking advantage of a six-month moratorium , nobody knows what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get to demand repayment of the interest accumulating through the freeze .
One thing is certain .
The thriving consumer credit culture that was driving India in the absence of corporate investment before Covid-19 is on its last legs .
Almost 360 million people who earn between $ 130 and $ 260 a month are staring at a 56 % drop in April incomes from February , says research firm CreditVidya , which estimates this mass-market segment will be unlikely to fulfill its installment obligations beyond two months .
India ’ s legacy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resolved .
According to Credit Suisse Group AG , accelerating ratings downgrades pose a refinancing risk for $ 33 billion in loans .
Thanks to the lockdown , unsecured consumer credit is also toast .
At the very least , Prime Minister Narendra Modi ’ s government will have to rescue state-owned banks .
Credit Suisse estimates a recapitalization bill of $ 13 billion .
Amid rising welfare expenditure , collapsing tax collections and fading hopes of privatization revenue , the falling debris of a broken financial system will hit India ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t defeat a contagion in the absence of aggressive testing .
India ’ s untamed Covid graph demonstrates that .
Unruly yields underscore the difficulty of convincing markets that the government will somehow limit the supply of new debt by using its fiscal firepower sparingly .
The 6.5 % of GDP in budgetary resources that Team Modi has committed to support the Covid-hit economy is heavily centered on credit guarantees .
The deficit needle will move higher by just 0.8 % of GDP , Nomura Research says .
The pusillanimity is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sensitive to migrant workers ’ precarious existence before launching its hasty lockdown in March .
Now , when it comes to restarting the economy , the government is too fearful of a fragile currency , sovereign downgrades and capital outflows to spend boldly and pay for it by printing money .
The strategy is simply not credible , and the yield curve shows that .
Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services .
He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews .
He has also worked for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bloomberg News .


washingtonpost--2020-06-16--Powell Stays With Message of Uncertain Path for Recovery

“ Then we think , and I think most if not all forecasters think , that will leave us well short of where we were in February , ” he added .
With that observation , along with his prepared remarks Tuesday , Powell offered another restrained assessment of positive economic news , choosing again to emphasize the U.S. economy has a long way to go before it reverses the substantial damage done by the coronavirus pandemic .
Stephen Stanley , chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities , in a note to clients said Powell “ continues to see the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ He is very worried about permanent damage from the lockdown-induced downturn , even if it is over.
” The Fed lowered interest rates to near zero in mid-March and has purchased trillions in bonds to settle panicked credit markets .
It has also unveiled nine emergency lending programs to help households , companies , states and local governments battle through hardships created by the pandemic .
Asked about the potential for the central bank to cap the yield on Treasury securities at certain maturities -- a strategy known as yield-curve control -- Powell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stage of evaluating that option .
Powell was also pressed by Democrats on whether Congress should provide additional fiscal support to the economy , focusing in particular on whether budget cutbacks by state and local governments could further damage the economy if they don ’ t receive more aid .
“ We do know , and research does show , in the aftermath of the global financial crises during the Great Recession , state and local government did weigh on economic activity , ” he said .
“ I do think that area @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also appeared to lend his support to continuing some level of extra aid to the unemployed after he was asked by Georgia Republican David Perdue whether supplementary unemployment insurance might prevent people from returning to work .
“ I wouldn ’ t presume to tell you what the Fed thinks you should do , it ’ s really not our role , ” he said .
“ We do think you ’ ll want to continue support for workers in some form .
There are going to be an awful lot of unemployed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s remarks came on the heels of surprisingly good data on consumer demand released earlier Tuesday .
The Commerce Departments said U.S. retail sales rose in May by a better-than-expected 17.7 % , the biggest jump in data going back to 1992 .
That follows a 14.7 % slump in April .
The May payrolls report , out June 5 , also came in unexpectedly strong .
But just as he did after that report , Powell nodded to the good news and then reminded Americans that much remains unclear about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic uncertainty comes from uncertainty about the path of the disease and the effects of measures to contain it , ” he said .
“ Until the public is confident that the disease is contained , a full recovery is unlikely.
” “ If a small- or medium-sized business becomes insolvent because the economy recovers too slowly , we lose more than just that business , ” he said .
“ These businesses are the heart of our economy and often embody the work of generations.
” Those forecasts fit well with Powell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , steady struggle for the U.S. economy , as opposed to a rigorous rebound .
For example , policy makers ’ median projections pointed to unemployment ending this year at 9.3 % , and declining slowly to 6.5 % by the end of 2021 .
“ I speak for my colleagues throughout the Federal Reserve System when I say there is no place at the Federal Reserve for racism and there should be no place for it in our society , ” he said .
“ Everyone deserves the opportunity to participate fully @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
”


washingtonpost--2020-06-16--Analysis | Is British Airways Really Such a Big Disgrace?

Politicians and trade unions won ’ t shed tears for the Damien Hirsts that adorn the company ’ s offices and executive lounges , but they ’ re exceedingly peeved about the 12,000 jobs that BA plans to axe — almost 30 % of its workforce .
Members of the U.K. Parliament have branded the airline a “ national disgrace ” and accused it of a “ calculated attempt to take advantage of the pandemic to cut jobs and weaken the terms and conditions of its remaining employees.
” On Monday , Walsh , who will retire as IAG ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shot back : “ This is not a disgrace .
Lying down and surrendering without a fight would be a disgrace and we will not do that.
” Criticizing BA is a national pastime for Brits , and the attacks are often deserved .
For example , IT problems have inconvenienced passengers , who complain that the “ world ’ s favorite airline ” isn ’ t what it was .
But blasting the company for trying to prevent its own collapse is unfair .
It ’ s burning through about 600 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cash every month .
That isn ’ t sustainable .
BA has tapped 300 million pounds of U.K. government-backed loans , and receives wage subsidies from Britain ’ s job retention program .
Meanwhile , IAG ’ s Spanish units have benefited from about 1 billion euros ( $ 1.1 billion ) of state-backed loans .
But that ’ s peanuts compared to the billions that the U.S. , German and French governments have showered on their carriers .
Walsh didn ’ t protest partly for philosophical reasons but also because his company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Instead of applauding the company for not depending on handouts , politicians have made its life harder : First , by bungling the initial coronavirus response , and then by imposing a misguided 14-day quarantine on passengers arriving in the U.K .
Compared to budget carriers such as Ryanair Holdings Plc and Wizz Air Holdings Plc , BA is more reliant on business travel , which will take longer to recover .
But most airlines will have to downsize .
While bailouts and wage subsidies buy you time , they don ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job cuts are inevitable .
In the U.S. , the terms of government assistance prohibit layoffs until Oct. 1 , but employees face a bleak period thereafter .
Any downsizing needs to be handled sensitively — a quality that Walsh , who once earned the nickname “ Slasher ” for his cost-cutting zeal , isn ’ t renowned for .
The unions say BA is trying to tear up the gold-plated employment contracts of long-serving staff via a “ fire and rehire ” strategy .
No wonder the atmosphere has become toxic .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. carmakers faced before the last recession , when management and unions clashed over generous pay and massive healthcare liabilities that had made the industry uncompetitive .
Ultimately General Motors Co. and Chrysler filed for bankruptcy to jettison some of those obligations and start afresh .
There ’ s a long history of U.S airlines availing themselves of Chapter 11 proceedings to do similar .
To its credit , BA is determined to avoid such a fate .
Until recently , BA was very profitable — it achieved a 14.5 % operating profit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the stakes are as serious for the airlines as they were for Detroit in 2008 .
The fight over BA ’ s job cuts won ’ t be the last .
The airline must tread carefully , but politicians shouldn ’ t attack it for trying to keep the lights on .


washingtonpost--2020-06-16--Analysis | Home Is Where Singapore’s New Casino Is

A bizarre markets rally is under way amid the worst unemployment scare since the Great Depression .
It ’ s being led by day trading gurus for the coronavirus era , like Barstool Sports ’ Dave Portnoy , who ’ d bought only one stock in his life before the quarantine but thinks Warren Buffett is “ washed up.
” The hysteria isn ’ t limited to the U.S. , or shares .
Take the latest Singapore residential property data , which showed a 75 % jump in new private home sales in May from the previous month .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t be brought to the public and all viewing galleries were shut .
What was going on here ?
Singaporeans weren ’ t leaving home and the city ’ s two casinos were closed , along with other outlets for spending money and relieving stress .
So many went online to buy and sell stocks at a pace not seen since a 2013 crash in penny stocks .
But that wasn ’ t enough , for the asset class that stands head and shoulders above everything else in the imagination of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And that ’ s where people shifted their attention .
Or , as broker PropNex Realty CEO Ismail Gafoor says , buyers and investors adapted to digital modes of property marketing .
There ’ s a danger of reading too much into the Singapore numbers .
The overall sales figure of 486 units is the worst May for developers since 2008 .
And it ’ s entirely possible that many of the 56 buyers of Treasure at Tampines — the bestselling condo development in the eastern suburbs — had done their on-ground research @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has rules against dodgy tricks — such as very large balconies combined with tiny interiors — that give a certain credibility to what prospective customers see in virtual galleries .
Still , the real surprise is that the buyers paid a median S $ 1,360 ( $ 979 ) per square foot , 2 % more than when the units were first launched in March 2019 .
The more expensive Florence Residences , another suburban property that first started sales at the same time , saw a 6 % higher median price per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sold in May .
PropNex ’ s characterization of this unusual month as the “ new normal ” may be an exaggeration .
It ’ s perhaps a not-so-new abnormal , in which people feel compelled to conclude transactions .
In March , when the Covid-19 scare was beginning , I wrote about the Black Death in medieval Europe and how it had brought in a wave of consumption ( and consumption taxes ) because of a sudden feeling among survivors that life was indeed short .
Is something similar going on here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for asset purchases in pre-capitalistic times , but now there are .
An apartment scooped off an online gallery in Singapore , or Hertz shares bought on the Robinhood Markets Inc. trading app , seem to be playing the role that Venetian women ’ s platform heels did back then .
In Hong Kong , where there are serious question marks about the city ’ s future after Beijing imposes a national security law , dozens of would-be buyers wearing face masks stood in rain .
All but one of 94 apartments on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Campton project in central Kowloon was sold in just eight hours .
The pandemic came to us in an epoch of extreme inequalities in incomes and wealth .
The poor everywhere are anxious about livelihoods .
The affluent are nervous about their cramped lifestyles .
The middle class , the typical buyer of Treasure at Tampines , shares both concerns , though perhaps not to the same extent .
For the sandwiched classes , writing a down payment check and taking a 15-year mortgage are expressions of optimism in hopeless times , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services .
He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews .
He has also worked for the Straits Times , ET NOW and Bloomberg News .


washingtonpost--2020-06-16--Analysis | Germany’s Coronavirus Tracing App Won’t Work

The goal , of course , is the same for all these apps : not to replace , but to augment and assist human contact tracers in pinging people who ’ ve been near an infected person .
Human beings can only name contacts they know ; software can point out strangers who ’ ve been within aerosol range .
The success of any tracing technology , however , depends on a lot more than its skill at sending “ exposure notifications.
” Once you get a ping , can you also get easy access to a coronavirus test ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ help you quarantine , by arranging for groceries , for example ?
Do public health officials keep checking in ?
Based on my experience , Germany and Singapore are both pretty orderly places that do these things well .
But to succeed at actually tracing contacts , any technology must first achieve what economists call network effects , according to which the usefulness of an app increases with the number of people using it .
If you ’ re the only one on the corona app , its utility is zero .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s invaluable .
To be reasonably useful , at least three in four people must log on , experts reckon .
So far no voluntary app in the world comes anywhere near that .
Even in Singapore , only about one in five residents has been using TraceTogether , which was launched as early as March .
In Germany , only about 42 % are even considering downloading the new app , according to a poll .
What , then , are the factors that might be impeding adoption ?
The bigger issue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being surveilled .
Here apps across the world vary widely .
Are users completely anonymous to the system or can they , directly or indirectly , be identified ( as they can in China and South Korea , for instance ) ?
How much control do people retain over their data ?
And what data , beyond infection status , is being collected in the first place ?
( In China and South Korea this included payment information . )
Finally , will the data eventually be deleted , or could it be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is where the data cultures of Germany and Singapore diverge dramatically .
As you ’ d expect , Germany has opted for maximum privacy on every question down the list .
Not only can users opt out at any time , they also remain completely anonymous .
They may find out that they ’ ve recently been within two meters of an infected person for more than 15 minutes , but they won ’ t know where that was .
Being anonymous , they also can ’ t be contacted , so it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in and report their health status or get instructions for next steps .
In short , the Corona App probably won ’ t be all that useful .
Singapore skewed the balance differently .
Its app safeguards users ’ privacy from snoopers and contacts ( that is , random people who ’ ve been near them ) , but shares information with the health authorities .
That ’ s because doing so is useful .
Officials can get in touch with infected persons and , with luck , identify the “ super spreaders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SARS-CoV-2 .
But as adoption lagged behind hopes , Singapore too realized it had to iterate and improve .
It ’ s now preparing to ditch smartphones altogether in favor of new and bespoke devices , called TraceTogether Tokens , that will be distributed to all residents and are deliberately limited in functionality .
These could be worn in a pocket or on a belt , perhaps .
They wouldn ’ t drain the user ’ s smartphone battery , and they wouldn ’ t know anything about the person except infection status @ @ @ @ @ @ @ phones , they ’ re reassuringly “ dumb ” by design .
For now Singapore is strongly encouraging people to wear these tokens , but it could eventually make them mandatory .
It is thereby going in the opposite direction from Germany in every way .
Is that illiberal ?
It is , but that ’ s just another trade-off .
Locking us down in our homes deprived us of our liberty .
So did banning us from traveling to certain places , from sending our children to school and from mingling with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to preserve more of these freedoms , like Sweden , have paid for it dearly in lost lives .
Good , widely used apps are part of the alternative .
We divulge information in return for the ability to move about more freely .
Freedom , it turns out , doesn ’ t always equal maximum individual choice .
Whenever we finally get a safe vaccine , we may need to require use of it by law in order to achieve herd immunity .
Until then , we may need to coax people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tracing for the sake of epidemiological network effects .
We should only support such measures on the precondition that they ’ re well designed and governed by democratically enacted laws .
But a modicum of coercion may be necessary to prevent a second wave now , or the next pandemic later .


washingtonpost--2020-06-16--Analysis | Where Are We in the Quest for Coronavirus Drugs?

In late April , researchers announced that remdesivir , an experimental antiviral drug that Gilead Sciences Inc. originally made as a treatment for Ebola , helped patients recover from Covid-19 more quickly than standard care alone .
Days later , it was cleared by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for emergency use in Covid-19 patients .
The authorization was limited to hospitalized Covid-19 patients with low blood-oxygen levels or who need breathing support .
Japanese and U.K. regulators have also given special authorization for use of the drug .
The FDA in March controversially issued an Emergency Use Authorization @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and hydroxychloroquine , to be distributed and prescribed by doctors to Covid-19 patients .
The move came after President Donald Trump repeatedly touted the drugs .
The FDA ’ s decision was criticized by scientists as premature , and in mid-June , the agency revoked the authorization after determining the drugs were unlikely to work against the virus and could have dangerous side effects .
Studies suggesting both harms and benefits to hydroxychloroquine use in Covid-19 patients have been withdrawn or retracted from publication .
A large study in the U.K. published in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hydroxychloroquine has created shortages of the drug for patients with malaria and the autoimmune disease lupus , for whom it is a proven therapy .
Even if a treatment shows promise in laboratory , animal or early human experiments , rigorous testing is needed to prove that it ’ s both safe and effective .
That requires carefully structured and monitored tests known as clinical trials .
Typically , these studies are designed to show that patients randomly assigned to get the drug do better than those in a “ control group ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the results aren ’ t a product of chance .
The trials try to subtract all the other influences and factors that might disguise the true effectiveness of the drug .
For one thing , patients often recover from viral illness on their own , or improve because of supportive care such as rest and hydration .
And some really sick patients might not respond to treatment no matter how effective it is .
Treatments that don ’ t have approval from regulators should be viewed with extreme caution .
The FDA and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ multiple companies to stop selling unproven treatments for coronavirus .
It depends .
Drugs that are already approved against one infection and shown to be safe can be tested for effectiveness against another in a matter of months .
Experimental drugs may take longer to test , as they have to go through initial studies to evaluate whether they are safe .
Other factors that can slow the process include the supply of drug candidates and the availability of patients to test them in .
The trials also have to be approved by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a 2017 review , the median time for regulators to approve a new drug in 2015 was 333 days in the U.S. , 422 days in Europe , and 639 days in China .
China has since expedited its process .
When drugs are deemed to fill an immediate need , regulators can speed them through the approval process using a number of paths .
• Antivirals : This would be the drug type of choice for treating infection with the coronavirus .
However , antivirals are a relatively new drug class @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to design .
The reasons are many , including that it ’ s difficult to kill a virus , which is barely alive .
Whereas a bacterium is a living cell that takes in nourishment and reproduces , a virus is just genetic material surrounded by a thin skin that lets the cells of a host do all the reproduction for it .
Successful antivirals , such as treatments for HIV , block the virus ’ s machinery at one of several key points : when it enters the cell , when it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Viruses , just like bacteria , can mutate to evade drugs , although this one doesn ’ t appear to evolve rapidly .
Apart from remdesivir , other antiviral drugs that have been tried include the anti-HIV combination of lopinavir and ritonavir ; early results weren ’ t promising .
Another is favipiravir , a treatment for the flu virus made by Fujifilm Holdings Corp. , known for its photo film and cameras but also operating as a health-care company .
It sped the clearance of coronavirus from patients ’ lungs in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• Anti-inflammatories : Among Covid-19 ’ s most destructive effects is excessive inflammation , sometimes called a cytokine storm , resulting from the body ’ s desperate effort to get rid of the virus .
The damage from the storm can be worse than the viral infection itself , and drug developers are trying a variety of treatments to quell it .
The low-cost , anti-inflammatory drug dexamethasone improved survival in patients with Covid-19 in a University of Oxford study , becoming the first treatment to show life-saving promise months into the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NV and Merck & Co. , it ’ s been available as a generic for decades .
• Antibody treatments : A basic version of this therapy involves collecting plasma , the liquid part of blood , from people who ’ ve recovered from Covid-19 and developed antibodies to the virus , and transfusing it into those who are still sick .
Making this kind of treatment widely available requires producing antibodies in a lab rather than continually harvesting fresh batches from individuals .
Researchers have considerable hope for this approach , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most effective way to treat Ebola virus , which is fatal about half the time .
The challenge lies in finding antibodies that will effectively attack the virus , then producing them at scale in a form that can be safely administered to patients .


washingtonpost--2020-06-16--Analysis | The Online Grocery Boom Reveals a Few Big Winners

Nearly half of respondents in a survey by Coresight Research reported trying online grocery shopping for the first time or increasing their use of it because of the novel coronavirus .
Importantly , the study was conducted March 17-18 , when state and local stay-home mandates were just starting to take effect .
It stands to reason , then , that even more consumers may have been pushed in this direction later .
I ’ ve always thought it was revealing that Walmart and Target have long said their curbside pickup services have unusually high net promoter scores , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proxy for customer satisfaction .
In other words , once people try these services , they tend to really like them .
The hard part is getting them to take the initial plunge .
The pandemic just provided shoppers a forceful reason to do just that .
Target , for example , has said that 2 million people used its drive-up service for the first time in the first quarter .
( 1 ) Sales to the retailer fulfilled by its grocery-centric same-day delivery service , Shipt , were up more than 300 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earlier .
U.S. shoppers have tended to eschew online grocery shopping because they want to squeeze their peaches and nab that just-perfectly-sized steak .
But this unusual moment will make some of them realize just how much of their typical grocery haul is comprised of replenishment-type items that are , in fact , easy to hand off to someone else .
After all , a box of Cheez-Its or a pint of Ben & Jerry ’ s tastes the same no matter who selects them .
Also , retailers and services such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s generally very easy to reorder favorite items after you ’ ve done it once .
These factors , I expect , will drive a sharp increase in e-commerce penetration of a corner of retail that has remained relatively insulated from digital change .
Walmart and Target , two retailers that already have shown themselves to be holding up well amid the pandemic , stand to benefit from this shift .
Both long ago realized that online grocery was going to be key to avoiding further wounds from Amazon.com Inc. and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of thousands of workers who focus on filling these orders ; Target acquired Shipt to help it gain and protect grocery market share .
If both these chains can also convince customers to add higher-margin items such as apparel and home goods to these orders , that could help make them more lucrative .
Costco , which recorded booming online grocery sales in the latest quarter , also showed potential to emerge from the lockdown phase with a large group of digital converts .
When Kroger Co. reports earnings later this week , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the supermarket giant ’ s online business got a boost from shoppers under stay-at-home orders .
The cornerstone of Kroger ’ s e-commerce strategy — a partnership with Britain ’ s Ocado Group Plc that will bring that company ’ s technology to the U.S. — is one that , by design , won ’ t bear fruit for a long time .
That doesn ’ t leave me particularly confident in the company ’ s positioning for winning digital dollars right now .
It ’ s unclear what a stronger uptake of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bloomberg Opinion has frequently noted that Amazon ’ s strategy around the grocery business seems as ill-defined as the day exactly three years ago that it plunked down $ 13.7 billion for Whole Foods Market .
According to the Coresight survey , far more consumers have bought groceries recently with Amazon than with any other retailer , an encouraging sign for the Seattle shopping juggernaut .
The problem is , its base of shoppers is not growing much , even as some of its competitors see huge gains on that measure .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grocery shopping are likely to be the regional grocery chains such as Ingles Markets Inc. or Publix that have already suffered in recent years as customers have shifted their grocery dollars away from supermarkets to warehouse clubs , discounters such as Aldi or even Dollar General Corp .
Smaller , traditional grocers simply don ’ t have the massive capital-expenditures budgets and talent pool of their larger competitors that could help them hold their own in the digital realm .
In this way , the rise of online grocery shopping will help strengthen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s circle and may accelerate the demise of others .


washingtonpost--2020-06-16--Analysis | Why Chinese and Indian Troops Are Clashing, Again

On May 5 , China surprised India by deploying troops in three main locations , two in Ladakh , a region of strategic importance nestled between western Tibet and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir .
The reason for the maneuver remains unclear , but India ’ s decision in 2019 to bring the region under direct federal control had drawn an angry response from China , similar to that of neighboring Pakistan , which has close ties with the government in Beijing .
China said at the time it was unacceptable that India “ continued to undermine its territorial sovereignty.
” Recent confrontations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Pangong Tso , a glacial lake at 14,000 feet in the Tibetan plateau .
After weeks of skirmishes left scores of troops injured , the standoff entered a new more dangerous phase in mid-June when three Indian soldiers died in a violent clash with Chinese troops in the Galwan area .
It was the first deaths on the border in four decades .
The Chinese foreign ministry said two Indian soldiers had illegally crossed into Chinese territory twice on June 15 in a “ serious violation ” of the consensus reached between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to the 1950s .
Skirmishes were reported after India granted the Dalai Lama asylum following an uprising against Chinese rule in Tibet in 1959 .
War broke out three years later after China objected to India establishing outposts along the effective boundary , established by the British in 1914 , between the Tibetan region and Northeast India .
The current “ Line of Actual Control ” that forms the ambiguous border partially adheres to the British-drawn boundaries .
Clashes were also reported in 1967 and again in 1987 in what ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ -- no bullets were fired and soldiers simply kept shouting at each other via loudspeakers .
Relations improved as the two governments signed five treaties between 1993 and 2013 and -- with economic growth racing ahead in both countries -- China became India ’ s largest trading partner .
The border remained mostly calm through 2017 , when troops faced off for several months at Doklam , a plateau near the Indian border that is claimed by both China and Bhutan .
The clashes are mostly seasonal , given the harsh winter conditions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a growing coronavirus outbreak that infected about 200,000 people by early June as well as inflicting severe damage on the economy .
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also been shifting his country diplomatically closer to the U.S. , whose strained relations with China have worsened in 2020 in the wake of the pandemic that originated in China .
Since its 2017 standoff with China , India has signed crucial communications and arms agreements with the U.S. India has also recently blocked Chinese companies from taking over local businesses and stepped up road construction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ building border infrastructure for decades , including -- to India ’ s chagrin -- through disputed areas that link China to Pakistan .
Meanwhile , China is getting more assertive .
It is pressing ahead in the face of international condemnation with stricter security laws in Hong Kong , while also getting involved in more military run-ins in the South China Sea and warning Taiwan against any moves toward independence .
Diplomatic talks continue after an offer to mediate by U.S. President Donald Trump was rejected by both nations .
Before the death @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been downplaying the skirmishes while China was saying dialog could resolve the situation .
Most observers say war is unlikely since neither side wants to escalate matters .
One outcome may be closer alignment between India and the U.S. , which has called for expanding the G7 to include India .
The U.S. has been broadening trade and strategic ties with nations of the Indo-Pacific -- India , Japan and Australia -- who form the informal grouping known as the Quad .
Meantime , there ’ s always a chance border scuffles @ @ @ @ @ @ @ opened a bridge to enable faster movement of troops and artillery in the region of the 2017 border clashes .


washingtonpost--2020-05-07--Analysis | Nintendo’s Animals May Be a Covid-19 Netflix Moment

Quarantined consumers around the world have turned to digital entertainment to keep themselves , and their kids , occupied .
For Netflix , that means more people signing on for subscriptions .
If it ’ s lucky , the purveyor of streaming video will keep collecting monthly revenue even after lockdowns are lifted , because many consumers will never bother to cancel .
“ Animal Crossing ” is a $ 59.99 one-time buy .
The game puts players in a virtual world , starting with their own island upon which they can design a house , grow food , fish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s become a social phenomenon and the family-friendly play has made it a godsend for stressed-out , work-from-home parents trying to keep kids occupied .
After the initial purchase , it ’ s possible that players will want to sign up for a Switch Online subscription , giving Nintendo as much as $ 20 extra per year , but that ’ s not guaranteed , nor is it necessary to keep playing .
Of course , the console ( from $ 199.99 ) itself is needed and “ Animal Crossing ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that suppliers haven ’ t been able to keep up .
What will be valuable to Nintendo is the reminder to Switch owners that they even have the device .
Launched three years ago , it ’ s a hybrid handheld-cum-console that allows gamers to play on a connected TV , or to pick up and go — hence the name .
It ’ s likely that millions now sit in drawers , alongside old phones and USB thumb drives .
Such dust collectors don ’ t create any further revenue for Nintendo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kim noted recently , Microsoft Corp. and Sony Corp. have shinier new consoles coming later this year .
The technological upmanship is less important than game quality and experience .
The beauty of “ Animal Crossing ” is that it doesn ’ t need leading-edge graphics chips or high-speed internet connections .
It ’ s simple and accessible to the whole family .
But Nintendo does need to keep people engaged , not only with the game but with the idea that the Switch is a fun device that will hold their interest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hardware options .
With Nintendo releasing new games and upgrades to existing titles in coming months , one of the most powerful marketing tools will be the device already in consumers ’ hands and their desire for something fresh .
While the World Health Organization notes that gaming can be a health measure — keeping people at home instead of going out — others note that addiction is also likely to rise .
For parents , though , the fare offered by Nintendo makes almost any title a safe choice for keeping kids @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Netflix also knows the value of helping people while away hours stuck inside .
It added a record 15.8 million subscribers during the quarter .
Yet it also warned investors not to expect such growth to continue .
By contrast , Switch may offer longevity that streaming video doesn ’ t : The device is portable and its games are innately social .


washingtonpost--2020-06-10--Analysis | Turns Out It Was a Good Time to Quit Smoking After All

South Africa has banned sales of tobacco products as part of a strict lockdown policy that BAT and other companies are fighting .
Cigarette consumption has been disrupted by curfews in some markets , such as Bangladesh .
In addition , smoking in markets such as Vietnam often takes place in bars and restaurants .
With establishments closed , or consumers reluctant to venture out , there was less temptation to light up .
This slowdown provides good reason for pause for investors in BAT , led by the relatively new Chief Executive Officer Jack Bowles .
With higher smoking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to trade up to more expensive brands as average incomes grow , these regions are supposed to offset the deterioration in developed markets as people there quit smoking .
But now , because of the coronavirus hit , BAT expects a 7 % decline in global industry sales volumes of cigarettes and heated-tobacco devices this year , more than the previously anticipated 5 % fall .
This scenario has implications for competitors such as Philip Morris International Inc. and Japan Tobacco Inc. , which produces Winston and Benson & Hedges cigarettes .
Japan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sheet to buy emerging-market brands over the past few years .
As the contagion spread and shined a spotlight on potential risks related to smoking , lockdowns meant BAT had to delay launches of new devices that heat rather than burn tobacco and electronic cigarettes , because the stores where they ’ re sold were shut .
The U.S. market , the world ’ s biggest for electronic cigarettes , was already struggling to recover after a spate of illnesses and deaths last year related to vaping .
Consequently , BAT expects to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5 billion pounds ( $ 6.4 billion ) from tobacco alternatives a year later than planned , in 2025 .
The dislocation across cigarettes and newer products will lead to lower underlying earnings growth this year than previously forecast , as well as a slower reduction in debt .
However , it ’ s still too early to throw out the thesis that people will reach for cigarettes no matter what ’ s happening .
In developed markets , consumption is holding up .
In the U.S. , for example , industry volumes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % this year , compared with the 5 % previously anticipated , amid signs pointing to BAT gaining market share and few consumers are switching to cheaper brands .
Vaping as a category is still reeling , but BAT is making headway with its Vuse and Vype brands .
And it continues to invest in its tobacco heating device Glo , as well as in oral tobacco Velo .
The strategy of having a balanced portfolio of new-generation products is wise .
It ’ s not yet clear which of these categories will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decline .
True , BAT had to lower its outlook and there is a risk that smokers will seek out cheaper brands in a recession , but at least the company is updating investors regularly .
It also remains committed to its policy of paying out 65 % of underlying earnings per share .
Rival Imperial Brands Plc cut its dividend last month .
BAT has not been immune from the pandemic , but the company is positioning itself well for the future .
And who knows , its biotech subsidiary might even @ @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-06-09--Analysis | Economic Nationalism Is a Wrong Turn for Covid-Hit India

My loss is due to India ’ s Covid-19 lockdown , which has severely pinched logistics , a perennial challenge in the huge , infrastructure-starved country .
But more worrying than the disruption is the fruity political response to it .
Rather than being a wake-up call for fixing supply chains , the pandemic seems to be putting India on an isolationist course .
Why ?
Granted that the liberal view that trade is good and autarky bad isn ’ t exactly fashionable anywhere right now .
What makes India ’ s lurch troublesome is that the pace and direction @ @ @ @ @ @ @ domestic business interests .
The Indian liberals , many of whom are Western-trained academics , authors and — at least until a few years ago — policy makers , want a more competitive economy .
They will be powerless to prevent the slide .
Modi ’ s call for a self-reliant India has been echoed by Home Minister Amit Shah , the cabinet ’ s unofficial No .
2 , in a television interview .
If Indians don ’ t buy foreign-made goods , the economy will see a jump , he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s too nebulous yet to call it that — has a geopolitical element .
A military standoff with China is under way , apparently triggered by India ’ s completion of a road and bridge near the common border in the tense Himalayan region of Ladakh .
It ’ s very expensive to fight even a limited war there .
With India ’ s economy flattened by Covid , New Delhi may be looking for ways to restore the status quo and send Beijing a signal .
Economic boycotts , such as Chinese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ territorial disputes in the East China Sea , are well understood as statecraft .
In these times , it ’ s not even necessary to name an enemy .
An undercurrent of popular anger against China , the source of both the virus and India ’ s biggest bilateral trade deficit , is supposed to do the job .
But is it ever that easy ?
A hastily introduced policy to stock only local goods in police and paramilitary canteens became a farcical exercise after the list of banned items ended up including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Co. , Nestle SA , and Unilever NV , which have had significant Indian operations for between 60 and 90 years , as well as Dabur India Ltd. , a New Delhi-based maker of Ayurveda brands .
The since-withdrawn list demonstrates the practical difficulty of bureaucrats trying to find things in a globalized world that are 100 % indigenous .
Free-trade champions fret that the prime minister , whom they saw as being on their side six years ago , is acting against their advice to dismantle statist controls on land , labor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more competitive .
Engage with the world more , not less , they caution .
But Modi also has to satisfy the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh , the umbrella Hindu organisation that gets him votes .
Its backbone of small traders , builders and businessmen — the RSS admits only men — was losing patience with the anemic economy even before the pandemic .
Now , they ’ re in deep trouble , because India ’ s broken financial system won ’ t deliver even state-guaranteed loans to them .
The U.S.-China tensions — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ responsibility and Hong Kong ’ s autonomy — offer a perfect backdrop .
A dire domestic economy and trouble at the border provide the foreground .
Big business will dial economic nationalism up and down to hit a trifecta of goals : Block competition from the People ’ s Republic ; make Western rivals fall in line and do joint ventures ; and tap deep overseas capital markets .
The first goal is being achieved with newly placed restrictions on investment from any country that shares a land border with India .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ corporate lobbying to influence India ’ s whimsical economic policies .
As for the third objective , with the regulatory environment becoming tougher for U.S.-listed Chinese companies like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. , an opportunity may open up for Indian firms .
All this may bring India Shenzhen-style enclaves of manufacturing and trade , but it will concentrate economic power in fewer hands , something that worries liberals .
They ’ re moved by the suffering of India ’ s low-wage workers , who have borne the brunt of the Covid shutdown .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ just society and fairer income distribution prompts them to make common cause with the ideological Left , they ’ re quickly repelled by the Marxist voodoo that all cash , property , bonds and real estate held by citizens or within the nation “ must be treated as national resources available during this crisis.
” Who will invest in a country that does that instead of just printing money ?
At the same time , when liberals look to the business class , they see a sudden swelling of support for ideas like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if this isn ’ t a ploy by industry to outsource part of the cost of labor to the taxpayer .
Slogans like Modi ’ s vocal-for-local stir the pot and thicken the confusion .
The value-conscious Indian consumer couldn ’ t give two hoots for calls to buy Indian , but large firms will know how to exploit economic nationalism .
One day soon , I ’ ll get my mangoes — from them .


washingtonpost--2020-06-08--Analysis | Where Are We in Quest for Coronavirus Drugs and Vaccines?

In late April , researchers announced that remdesivir , an experimental antiviral drug that Gilead Sciences Inc. originally made as a treatment for Ebola , helped patients recover from Covid-19 more quickly than standard care .
Days later , it was cleared by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for emergency use in Covid-19 patients .
The authorization was limited to hospitalized Covid-19 patients with low blood-oxygen levels or who need breathing support .
Japanese and U.K. regulators have also given special authorization for use of the drug .
The FDA in March controversially issued an Emergency Use Authorization providing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hydroxychloroquine , to be distributed and prescribed by doctors to Covid-19 patients .
The move came after President Donald Trump repeatedly touted the drugs .
He later said he ’ d taken a course of hydroxychloroquine although he is not infected with coronavirus .
The FDA cautions against the use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine for Covid-19 outside of a hospital setting or a clinical trial due to the risk of heart problems .
Emergency authorizations are permitted during a crisis when a product ’ s “ known and potential benefits ” outweigh its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russian government in mid-April ordered the free distribution of hydroxychloroquine , which hadn ’ t been registered for use in the country previously , for treatment of coronavirus .
The FDA ’ s decision and Trump ’ s championing of the drugs have been criticized by scientists as premature .
Studies suggesting both harms and benefits to hydroxychloroquine use in Covid-19 patients have been withdrawn or retracted from publication .
A large study in the U.K. published in June found no benefit .
Panic-buying of hydroxychloroquine has created shortages of the drug for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lupus , for whom it is a proven therapy .
Even if a treatment shows promise in laboratory , animal or early human experiments , rigorous testing is needed to prove that it ’ s both safe and effective .
That requires carefully structured and monitored tests known as clinical trials .
Typically , these studies are designed to show that patients randomly assigned to get the drug do better than those in a “ control group ” who don ’ t , and that the results aren ’ t a product of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all the other influences and factors that might disguise the true effectiveness of the drug .
For one thing , patients often recover from viral illness on their own , or improve because of supportive care such as rest and hydration .
And some really sick patients might not respond to treatment no matter how effective it is .
Treatments that don ’ t have approval from regulators should be viewed with extreme caution .
The FDA and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission have warned multiple companies to stop selling unproven treatments for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are already approved against one infection and shown to be safe can be tested for effectiveness against another in a matter of months .
Experimental drugs may take longer to test , as they have to go through initial studies to evaluate whether they are safe .
Other factors that can slow the process include the supply of drug candidates and the availability of patients to test them in .
The trials also have to be approved by ethics watchdogs and drug regulators .
According to a 2017 review , the median time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2015 was 333 days in the U.S. , 422 days in Europe , and 639 days in China .
China has since expedited its process .
When drugs are deemed to fill an immediate need , regulators can speed them through the approval process using a number of paths .
More than 100 different programs have been launched to develop and test treatments .
These include everything from antiviral drugs and antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients , to traditional Chinese herbal medicine .
A number of studies are looking at whether drugs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disorders can halt dangerous inflammation , sometimes called “ cytokine storm , ” which can be lethal .
In a study in China published March 18 , AbbVie Inc. ’ s Kaletra , an HIV treatment combining two drugs , failed to improve the condition of coronavirus patients .
Another small , preliminary trial of the flu medication favipiravir , or Avigan , made by Fujifilm Holdings Corp. produced more promising results .
About 100 experimental vaccines against the coronavirus are in some stage of development , according to the World Health Organization @ @ @ @ @ @ @ began preliminary human testing of the first one in mid-March in the Seattle area .
It was developed by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in collaboration with the biotechnology company Moderna Inc .
Since then , a handful of additional human trials have begun of vaccine candidates , including from CanSino Biologics Inc. and the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology and from Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc .
Some of the world ’ s biggest companies are working on vaccine projects .
GlaxoSmithKline has teamed up with China-based Clover Biopharmaceuticals , while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ separate collaborations with the U.S. government ’ s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority .
Widespread testing of experimental vaccines is important to reduce the possibility that they cause harm after being rolled out , as has been the case a number of times in the past .
Documented reports of unexpected side effects from new vaccines are different from the persistent and incorrect belief that vaccines against childhood diseases carry significant risks .
Anthony Fauci , director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , has said there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vaccine could be available by the end of the year .
Richard Hatchett , the head of the Oslo-based Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations , which works to advance new vaccines , has said that time frame is reasonable for delivering doses to vulnerable groups such as health workers .
A collaboration between the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc has set a particularly ambitious aim of producing initial doses as early as September .
Hitting those targets would be remarkable considering the process of bringing a conventional vaccine from inception to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years .
In a project that could deliver a vaccine sooner , researchers in four countries will test a shot that ’ s already licensed to prevent tuberculosis to see if it will protect health workers against the coronavirus .
There ’ s no guarantee any of these projects will succeed .
Just 6 % of experimental vaccines make it to licensure .
The ones aimed at Covid-19 that are moving most rapidly are made using new technologies that have never proven useful in humans .