washingtonpost--2020-04-23--Analysis | Credit Suisse Traders Still Carry the Bank

In the equities and fixed-income units , trading revenue jumped by 25 % to $ 2.2 billion , beating analyst expectations .
That ’ s even after the firm lost $ 182 million , mainly on a single-name counterparty .
While private clients are now keeping almost one-third of their assets in cash , transaction revenue soared 31 % in the period , when compared to the same quarter last year .
It ’ s hard to imagine that this is sustainable .
Some American peers have warned on the outlook ; Gottstein told Bloomberg TV that his bank ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have fallen a little .
Showing how risky trading has become , the firm ’ s value-at-risk — its assessment of the most it could lose on one day — jumped to $ 103 million at the end of the quarter from an average of $ 27 million at the end of 2019 .
Meantime , the credit outlook is — to put it mildly — uncertain .
Credit Suisse set aside 376 million Swiss francs ( $ 386 million ) to cover potential losses in its loan book .
Unlike its European @ @ @ @ @ @ @ GAAP accounting standards , and the level of provisioning is in line with Wall Street ’ s firms , it said .
Its assumption of a 20 % second-quarter contraction in U.S. gross domestic product — and a recession in Europe , the U.S. and Switzerland this year , with a 2 % to 3 % recovery in global GDP in 2021 — is probably as good a guess as any .
And yet this isn ’ t just about the broader market .
Credit Suisse ’ s own book warrants a closer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cut back its exposure to the oil and gas industry to $ 7.7 billion , of which just over a third is junk-rated debt , its quarterly credit losses stemmed mostly from the oil industry .
And that was before this week ’ s wild dip below zero for WTI prices .
Even more painful were the unrealized mark-to-market losses of 284 million Swiss francs in leveraged finance and 160 million Swiss francs in Asia-Pacific lending .
Asked why a bank that has pivoted to wealth management is still so ensconced in higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ categorical : At $ 7.3 billion , he said , the bank ’ s leveraged finance exposure is 85 % lower than at its peak , but the business remains critical to the firm ’ s profitability .
Private equity continues to dominate investment banking activity and clients are now starting discussions about taking businesses private , he added .
And in a reminder of how lending to wealthy clients can backfire , the company ’ s biggest loss in Asia was on Luckin Coffee Inc. , which collapsed amid an accounting scandal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ biggest creditors on defaulted loans to Luckin ’ s founder .
All told , however , it wasn ’ t such a bad quarter for the Swiss bank .
It posted 1.3 billion Swiss francs in net profit , in part thanks to a negative tax rate , and it ’ s sticking with a target for a return on tangible equity of 10 % — while acknowledging that meeting the goal will be difficult .
Like everybody else , the fortunes of Credit Suisse will depend on how quickly and effectively the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid-19 lockdowns .
“ Does it take much imagination if the current environment persists that we see those profits disappear and Credit Suisse turn loss-making , ” asked one analyst on Thursday ’ s conference call .
Gottstein replied that he has no trouble sleeping but a second wave of coronavirus infections would be the worst scenario .
Investors will have to wait a bit longer for any kind of certainty .


washingtonpost--2020-05-14--Analysis | Zoom Shot to Coronavirus Fame But It’s Got Company

The company is trading at a discount to its bigger , better-known competitor .
If Pexip grows at the same pace for the rest of this year as it did in the first quarter , and profitability is consistent with previous years , then the listing gives it an enterprise value of more than 70 times forward Ebitda ( a measure of a company ’ s operating performance ) .
Zoom is considerably pricier , with a valuation on the same basis of more than 370 times .
If this were primarily a classic consumer-facing market , then investors would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a winner-takes-all battle .
After all , that ’ s how things have tended to pan out for online services : Alphabet Inc. ’ s Google took search , Facebook Inc. dominates social media , Microsoft Corp. ’ s LinkedIn has professional contacts and so on .
And Zoom has already entered the lexicon as a verb in much the same way as google or tweet .
But the video-conferencing business model differs from those advertising-driven offerings : Most of the money is to be made from companies paying for premium services .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s in vogue than about the best solution for their needs from both a technical and cost perspective .
So while Pexip ’ s valuation is still punchy , there is room for multiple players .
Concentrating on a business-to-business solution is far more likely to build a sustainable concern built on rational purchases — Pexip already boasts customers such as Vodafone Group Plc , General Electric Co. and Accenture Plc and annual recurring revenue from multi-year contracts jumped 50 % in the first quarter .
With 1.1 billion krone in IPO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accelerate that pace of growth .
There ’ s significant demand to capitalize on the work-from-home trend .
Shares in TeamViewer AG , a German maker of software that facilitates remote working , have climbed 33 % this year , while the benchmark DAX Index has fallen 22 % .
Even at enterprise software giant SAP SE , Chief Executive Officer Christian Klein told Bloomberg News this week he ’ d love to have a video-conferencing solution in the company ’ s portfolio right now .
Pexip must do a lot to justify @ @ @ @ @ @ @ huge increase in earnings over the next few years .
It may be telling that many of its investors are using the offering as an opportunity to sell their stakes : The company will have a free float of some 80 % of the share capital .
Perhaps they ’ re sensing an opportunity to make hay while the sun shines .
But if work from home is here to stay , then there will likely be plenty of seats around the ( dining room ) table .
This column does not necessarily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or Bloomberg LP and its owners .

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washingtonpost--2020-06-15--Atlanta Casts Light on Injustice for Black-Owned Small Business

Recent data point to a rising racial gap in employment and entrepreneurship during the lockdowns .
The jobless rate for African Americans rose slightly to 16.8 % in May , even as Whites ’ rate fell to 12.4 % .
And a National Bureau of Economic Research study released last week suggests Black entrepreneurs were in a historic fight for their survival during the shutdowns , with 41 % of them closing their businesses , more than double the rate for White owners .
Struggles long endemic to minority-owned businesses , such as a lack of banking relationships and access @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the problem .
In metro Atlanta -- where there are more than 7,600 black-owned firms , second only to New York City in the country -- there ’ s evidence that an economic pandemic is spreading unequally .
With mounting bills , social-distancing restrictions and his own battle with Covid-19 , Isaac Thomas saw his long run teaching martial arts to generations of primarily African American students come to an end on May 31 , when he was forced to close his Atlanta Taekwondo Academy after 35 years in business .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not making a lot of money , it hits us harder , ” said Thomas , 70 , who was inspired to start his Taekwondo studio out of fondness for Bruce Lee , whom he watched as a teen in Lee ’ s star-making stint as Kato in the campy 1960s TV series “ The Green Hornet.
” Thomas is among about 440,000 Black small-business owners who closed their doors between February and April , the first month after most states shut their economies to try to contain the coronavirus pandemic .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when many states lifted restrictions on businesses , and it ’ s unclear how many firms have reopened since , according to the author of the NBER study , Robert Fairlie of the University of California at Santa Cruz .
Still , if the gap persists , it could worsen the nation ’ s already steep racial and wealth inequalities , Fairlie said .
A lack of access to capital is one major reason , he said , combined , to a lesser extent , with a relative concentration in hard-hit sectors such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ traditional banking system has mattered even more during the coronavirus pandemic , because the centerpiece federal rescue program for small businesses , the $ 669 billion Paycheck Protection Program , is distributed by banks and other approved lenders .
African Americans appear to have been less successful getting PPP loans , said Connie Evans , chief executive officer of the Association for Enterprise Opportunity , a nonprofit that works with underserved communities .
Another impediment may be that businesses owned by minorities generally have fewer employees and less revenue than their White-owned counterparts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lending .
Because the size of PPP assistance is calculated based on payroll , minority-owned firms are less likely to qualify for larger loans -- the types that would yield greater fees for the lenders and make them a priority at the outset of the program , the center said .
While there ’ s about $ 130 billion left in the PPP program , “ the lost opportunity for prompt relief may have compounded financial hardship for many businesses and may increase the amount of assistance required to get them back on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a paper .
For Thomas , continuing to struggle with the Taekwondo studio didn ’ t make financial sense anymore : The business was more a labor of love than big moneymaker .
Around mid-March , Thomas noticed something going awry physically : “ I know my body and something didn ’ t feel right , ” he said .
A test proved he ’ d contracted Covid-19 , and while he never needed hospitalization , his wife of 50 years fared worse and required a hospital stay hooked up to a ventilator @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who have higher rates of chronic illnesses such as diabetes and asthma , are disproportionately harmed by the virus .
One study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found more than 80 % of people hospitalized for Covid-19 in Georgia were Black -- a state where about 32 % of the population is Black or African American .
Thomas ’ s landlord had been gracious throughout , not demanding payment for April and May while he was shut down .
But the June payment was looming when Thomas decided to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Reopening would have brought new challenges , including social-distancing guidelines that would have kept attendance at his studio to 10 or fewer people .
He chose not to apply for PPP aid .
Even though the loans are forgiven under certain criteria , Thomas said he was worried about getting “ deeper and deeper in the hole.
” In a survey of 500 Black and Hispanic business owners from April 30 to May 12 , almost two-thirds said they had either received no assistance or were still waiting to hear whether they will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ poll conducted by the Global Strategy Group for two organizations : Color of Change and UnidosUS .
That ’ s much higher than the national average , based on surveys by the U.S. Census Bureau .
Chloe Floyd operates Pyramid Grocery , the only grocer offering meat and produce for some low-income neighborhoods south of downtown Atlanta .
She ’ s getting by in part because of a $ 10,000 grant from Hello Alice , an incubator for startups that assists women and underrepresented entrepreneurs .
She recently installed a night window so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the store , but covering her expenses is proving a constant struggle .


washingtonpost--2020-05-21--Analysis | The New Coal Miner Pitch: Don’t Mention Coal

Remarkably , in announcing its name change this week , Arch pulled a Voldemort with the word “ coal ” : It doesn ’ t appear anywhere in the main body of the press release ( 3 ) .
This is doubly impressive when you consider Arch Resources will in fact continue to mine prodigious quantities of ... well , you know .
Thingy .
Only Arch is now focused on a different class of thingy .
Metallurgical coal is thermal coal ’ s more prosperous sibling , a vital ingredient for making steel ; hence Arch ’ s steely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these black rocks dug out from the ground not as metallurgical coal but as metallurgical products .
Ever since the miner emerged from chapter 11 in 2016 , its approach has been one long tacit acknowledgement that the U.S. thermal coal industry is in a downward spiral .
That business has essentially been run for cash , with capex running at just 70 % of depreciation , and the company ’ s Powder River Basin assets are about to be subsumed into a joint venture with Peabody Energy Corp .
The more profitable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with a major new project in West Virginia underway .
Most importantly , though , for every dollar Arch has invested back into the business , it ’ s spent about $ 1.60 on stock buybacks , taking in 40 % of the shares ( 1 ) .
This is how you head into the sunset .
So the new name and Terminator-esque logo aren ’ t just some branding consultant ’ s WFH project .
It ’ s the latest step in Arch ’ s quest to carve out a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ see this from the announcement : We expect steel to play an essential role in the revitalization of the global economy as it recovers from the disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic , and in the construction of a new economy supported by mass transit systems , wind turbines and electric vehicles .
See ?
No mention of coal , but a cameo by wind turbines , no less ( ah , the irony ) .
Mad Men ’ s Don Draper once pitched Bethlehem Steel on advertising itself as producing the building blocks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In real life , Arch would like you to know it mines the building blocks that go into making those building blocks .
On one level , that ’ s par for the course .
Any commodity producer would like you to associate their otherwise standard product with something more exceptional and valuable ; similar thinking underlay Arconic Corp. ’ s split from aluminum smelter Alcoa Corp .
Metallurgical coal may be higher-margin , but it remains a commodity , with all the volatility that entails ; the stock has halved so far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better to focus minds on something more stable , like a T-bar .
In this case , though , there ’ s a bigger drama playing out , and the wind turbine is the key character .
While Arch ’ s announcement lacked “ coal , ” it provided my annual quota of “ environmental , social and governance ” mentions in the space of a few minutes .
Arch is still running its thermal coal mines and likely will for as long as they spit out cash .
But competition from cheap @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thermal coal a tough sell to investors already .
Now climate change is making it altogether taboo — regardless of how efficient the miner — as ESG considerations gain traction .
The ongoing rebranding of Big Oil as Big Energy reflects similar dynamics .
As the function of energy markets shifts from simply producing ever more tons or barrels or whatnot to optimizing supply , demand and emissions , so the expectations of the capital markets shift , too .
The multiple that makes a stock price is ultimately just some narrative about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for an extreme example , see Tesla Inc. ) .
It isn ’ t just that Arch ’ s old story no longer convinces ; it ’ s increasingly unacceptable and thereby a burden on , rather than a boost to , value .
Becoming truly steel-inspired requires being a touch coal-amnesic .
( 3 ) Amove of just $ 25 a ton in the price of metallurgical coal is enough to swing Arch ’ sEbitda by $ 175 million , as per Arch Resources ’ investor presentation on May 15 , 2020 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up of the Leer South project in West Virginia .


washingtonpost--2020-06-17--Analysis | Why Chinese and Indian Troops Are Clashing, Again

On May 5 , China surprised India by deploying troops in three main locations , two in Ladakh , a region of strategic importance nestled between western Tibet and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir .
The reason for the maneuver remains unclear , but India ’ s decision in 2019 to bring the region under direct federal control had drawn an angry response from China , similar to that of neighboring Pakistan , which has close ties with the government in Beijing .
China said at the time it was unacceptable that India “ continued to undermine its territorial sovereignty.
” Recent confrontations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Pangong Tso , a glacial lake at 14,000 feet in the Tibetan plateau .
After weeks of skirmishes left scores of troops injured , the standoff entered a new more dangerous phase in mid-June when 20 Indian soldiers died in a violent clash with Chinese troops in the Galwan area .
A Chinese military spokesperson said there were casualties on both sides without elaborating .
They were the first deadly clashes on the border in four decades .
Days earlier it had appeared efforts to lower the temperature on both the diplomatic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the two sides indicating they were pulling back forces while talks continued .
The dispute dates back to the 1950s .
Skirmishes were reported after India granted the Dalai Lama asylum following an uprising against Chinese rule in Tibet in 1959 .
War broke out three years later after China objected to India establishing outposts along the effective boundary , established by the British in 1914 , between the Tibetan region and Northeast India .
The current “ Line of Actual Control ” that forms the ambiguous border partially adheres to the British-drawn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1967 and again in 1987 in what ’ s sometimes referred to as the loudspeaker war -- no bullets were fired and soldiers simply kept shouting at each other via loudspeakers .
Relations improved as the two governments signed five treaties between 1993 and 2013 and -- with economic growth racing ahead in both countries -- China became India ’ s largest trading partner .
The border remained mostly calm through 2017 , when troops faced off for several months at Doklam , a plateau near the Indian border that is claimed by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are mostly seasonal , given the harsh winter conditions .
The context .
India is fighting a growing coronavirus outbreak that infected about 200,000 people by early June as well as inflicting severe damage on the economy .
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also been shifting his country diplomatically closer to the U.S. , whose strained relations with China have worsened in 2020 in the wake of the pandemic that originated in China .
Since its 2017 standoff with China , India has signed crucial communications and arms agreements with the U.S. India @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taking over local businesses and stepped up road construction in border areas .
China has been building border infrastructure for decades , including -- to India ’ s chagrin -- through disputed areas that link China to Pakistan .
Meanwhile , China is getting more assertive .
It is pressing ahead in the face of international condemnation with stricter security laws in Hong Kong , while also getting involved in more military run-ins in the South China Sea and warning Taiwan against any moves toward independence .
Before the deadly clashes , India @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was saying dialog could resolve the situation .
Most observers had been speculating that war was unlikely since neither side wanted to escalate matters .
One outcome may be closer alignment between India and the U.S. , which has called for expanding the G-7 to include India .
The U.S. has been broadening trade and strategic ties with nations of the Indo-Pacific -- India , Japan and Australia -- who form the informal grouping known as the Quad .
An earlier offer to mediate by U.S. President Donald Trump was rejected by both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ always a chance border scuffles will resume elsewhere .
India this year opened a bridge to enable faster movement of troops and artillery in the region of the 2017 border clashes .


washingtonpost--2020-02-24--Analysis | America’s Bonds Are Caught in a European Tractor Beam

The U.S. appears to be headed at breakneck speed toward the same incredibly low interest-rate return environment as Europe and Japan .
If the trend continues , U.S. benchmark yields might end up flirting with zero — especially if the coronavirus becomes a pandemic and trashes global growth .
There ’ s the added dimension of the democratic nomination race being led by the hard-left Bernie Sanders .
Leaving politics and health emergencies aside , U.S. yields are a bargain anyway when compared to the world ’ s other major bond markets .
The dollar ’ s unrelenting strength makes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compelling .
Renewed quantitative easing by the European Central Bank is clearly a major factor in pushing the world ’ s bond investors to hunt elsewhere for yield — and , as my colleague Ferdinando Giugliano points out , the coronavirus outbreak in Italy will put the pressure on the ECB to go even further .
Core European sovereign yields are falling further into negative territory , and credit spreads on euro-denominated corporate bonds are tightening rapidly too .
Beyond Europe , 10-year Japanese government yields have also turned negative again .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s a material incentive for fixed-income investors to be overweight in U.S. Debt .
At the same time , Jay Powell ’ s Federal Reserve is clearly ready with stimulus as needed , as shown by its rapid pumping of “ non-QE ” temporary collateral into the repurchase markets in September .
In a presidential election year , the Fed would doubtless prefer to pause , but the U.S. yield curve is pricing in another rate cut ; bond buyers have a strong belief that rates are much more likely to be cut @ @ @ @ @ @ @ domestic U.S. macro reason for the downward pressure on yields .
As evidenced by the record high in U.S. equities , the American economy is pretty strong — certainly when compared to Europe or Japan .
Annual consumer inflation is at 2.5 % , and there ’ s hardly a shortage of U.S. Treasuries for sale as the deficit balloons .
This is largely about a global flight to quality , magnified by coronavirus fears .
The herd instinct is then intensified by index trackers and exchange-traded funds tripping over themselves to add @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 30-year yield curve ( the difference between rates on short-term debt and long-term debt ) has flattened by more than 20 basis points this year .
Bond funds are increasingly adopting a two-pronged policy : First , adding maximum duration in government bonds to benefit from the highest possible yield ; second , they are buying more corporate credit in short-to-medium maturities .
This year has set another record so far for fixed-income sales .
It has become something of a self-perpetuating spiral .
Until central banks are able to wean themselves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it ’ s hard to see any meaningful reversal of the multi-decade trend lower in yields .
The Fed tried to break free with a march higher on interest rates and quantitative tightening .
As both policies have reversed decisively , the tractor beam of European and Japanese-style rates has locked on .


washingtonpost--2020-02-24--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Spreading Coronavirus

It has been described as “ insidious ” because a large portion of infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , potentially spreading it to others .
There ’ s also evidence that it can spread in feces , on contaminated surfaces and among hospital workers .
As of mid-February the apparent mortality rate was about 2 % , lower than the 9.5 % rate for SARS .
But such numbers are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak .
Some disease-modeling experts project as many as hundreds of thousands of people are actually infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even know they have it .
One study published Feb. 10 estimated a mortality rate of 1 % once all cases , including those with no or only mild symptoms , are counted .
Infections appear to cause a mild illness in children , adolescents and younger adults in most cases , and potentially more severe disease in older people .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , dry cough and tiredness -- but not the sneezing and runny nose typical of a cold .
In severe cases , studies suggest the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and migrates to the lungs , causing difficulty breathing and the inflammation and congestion associated with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with underlying illnesses such as cardiovascular disease .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found the majority of deaths occurred in patients over 60 years old .
Of confirmed cases , 81 % were mild , 14 % were severe and 4.7 % critical .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ similar to the SARS virus but appears milder in terms of illness and case fatality rate .
Another related virus , known as MERS-CoV , that ’ s been spreading since 2012 , has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded .
By contrast , an estimated 50 million people died in the 1918 influenza pandemic that had a case-fatality ratio of less than 5 % , but infected up to a third of the world ’ s population .
Most likely by coming into contact with virus-containing droplets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ breathes , talks , coughs or sneezes .
These can be transferred directly to someone else in close proximity or via hands and surfaces .
How long it survives on surfaces is still not known , but preliminary studies suggest coronaviruses may remain infectious from a few hours to a few days .
Simple disinfectants kill the virus .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the virus can spread through feces or farther through the air in tiny particles known as aerosols .
People who are still incubating the virus and show no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people a person who is infected is likely to infect .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( pronounced “ r naught ” ) , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
The World Health Organization gave a preliminary range of 1.4 to 2.5 for Covid-19 .
At the high end , that makes it similar to SARS and more infectious than flu .
A group from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing estimated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them , responsible for diseases that range in severity from the common cold to MERS .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
The WHO says that new strains emerge periodically around the globe , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is more closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats than it is to the SARS coronavirus .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
There is always concern when a new human pathogen emerges because people typically lack immunity to it and there usually aren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Novel coronaviruses -- those unseen in humans before -- represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , as SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
In Hubei , thousands of people have been hospitalized in isolation wards and hundreds are being treated in intensive care units , creating what officials there have described as an “ extreme , severe and abrupt public health crisis.
” While cases have risen in countries including South Korea , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still isn ’ t clear how deadly the disease will be .
The last pandemic , an outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 flu in 2009 , infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and may have killed as many as 575,000 people worldwide in the first year it circulated , with about 80 % of them younger than age 65 , according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
In contrast , the risk of death from the new coronavirus , as well as from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the elderly .
China ’ s government imposed a quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in the region that ’ s keeping some 50 million people mainly at home .
New hospitals were built from the ground up in days , and the production of medical equipment ramped up .
The WHO has declared the outbreak a global health emergency , a designation that can help mobilize international responses .
Hong Kong , the international financial center that functions with some autonomy from China , announced its own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. , Australia , India and other countries were denying or restricting entry for non-citizens arriving from China in an attempt to stop the virus ’ s spread .
Various countries have also restricted travel to and from Italy , South Korea and Iran , where the outbreak has accelerated .
The World Health Organization hasn ’ t recommended any limitations on travel and is asking donors for $ 675 million , mainly to help poor countries prepare to fight the epidemic .
Early praise for China ’ s response has ebbed .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ information about the virus and has struggled to explain changes in the way it counts new cases .
In a nation where the internet is heavily censored , there was a rare outpouring of social media fury over the death from the virus of a Chinese doctor who had waved an early red flag about the outbreak but was silenced by police .
The top officials in Wuhan and Hubei were later removed from their posts .
But China ’ s strict quarantine likely bought the rest of the world two to three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ averted many infections , according to the WHO .


washingtonpost--2020-02-24--Analysis | The U.S. Needs to Get Out in Front of the Coronavirus Threat

It ’ s not time to panic .
But it is time to prepare by encouraging the public to start changing its behavior , laying the groundwork for a public-health response , and scaling up investment that will help providers catch and treat cases .
America ’ s ability to combat the virus will be held back by flaws in its health-care system and years of under-investment .
The sooner the country begins to shore up its defenses , the better chance it has of limiting the toll the virus may take .
How do things stand now ?
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the primary U.S. organization responsible for dealing with outbreaks , has been battling funding cuts for years , and the Trump administration wants further trims .
The $ 2.6 billion budgeted in 2020 for an emergency fund dedicated to health disasters will be a drop in the bucket should the disease spread here .
Congress can authorize more spending — and a White House spokesman said Monday the administration plans to request emergency funds — but the timing and amount of funding remains uncertain .
It ’ s likely the CDC and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On top of that , millions of Americans lack health coverage entirely and many more avoid care due to high costs .
Meanwhile , a portion of the population have grown so distrustful of elements of modern medicine such as vaccines that previously well-controlled diseases are spreading .
All of this may contribute to the chances that America misses cases of the sometimes mild disease and boosts its potential spread .
Early containment measures will be crucial .
The first step is to change messaging to acknowledge the growing risk , and to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can take .
No , the disease isn ’ t spreading in the U.S. , but there is a strong chance it will .
People should make an extra effort at developing good hygiene habits , including washing hands frequently , covering coughs , and touching their faces less .
( 1 ) There have been efforts to do this at the local level , but it ’ s worth going national .
It ’ s also time to plan for stepped-up public-health measures .
America is nowhere near needing quarantines or internal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a clearly communicated standard for when they might be required , as well as an effort to prepare the public and businesses for the possibility .
Preparation will mean a faster and better rollout if such measures are needed , and less of the scrambling and shock seen in countries such as Italy .
Finally , broader testing needs to be a priority .
Rapid , routine , and accurate screening for the virus would help catch cases before they turn into the sort of outbreaks that require disruptive quarantines and help direct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most .
Missing cases or false negatives can have a huge impact .
Unfortunately , the CDC has a ways to go in its efforts to build testing capacity , and there ’ s little visible progress towards faster point-of-care options .
The agency is beginning to broaden surveillance , but needs to fill many gaps .
More diagnostics-focused funding and increased efforts to approve and produce private tests are likely to be essential .
No one can fix America ’ s health system and pandemic preparedness overnight .
But it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it won ’ t be excessively strained .


washingtonpost--2020-02-24--Analysis | The Coronavirus Is Starting to Go Global

Perhaps this latest infection could follow the path of severe acute respiratory syndrome ?
The SARS strain of coronavirus vanished within months of its emergence in 2003 thanks to stringent quarantine measures , and has since hardly ever been seen outside of laboratories .
That prospect is looking increasingly remote now .
For most of the past month , just a percentage point of so of new daily infections have occurred outside China .
Since Thursday , that proportion has risen to a fifth .
Nearly half of cases so far found outside of China have been reported in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are canaries in the coalmine that the virus is quite active — a sign that containment is reaching the end of its applicability , ” said Ian Mackay , an associate professor of virology at the University of Queensland .
“ There could be these sorts of spot fires burning everywhere with us not knowing.
” These outbreaks may still be just the tip of the iceberg .
About two-thirds of coronavirus cases exported from China haven ’ t been detected yet , according to a study last week by Imperial College London @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Henan province to the north of Hubei , a woman from Wuhan was found to have incubated coronavirus for 19 days and infected five family members while frequently showing no symptoms herself , even under repeated medical testing .
China ’ s official case tallies often seem hard to reconcile , and may be under-counted .
That presents an alarming prospect .
If similar outbreaks continue to emerge elsewhere in the world , it looks like Covid-19 will no longer remain a localized epidemic in Hubei province .
Instead , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a pandemic — and will eventually become an endemic disease prevalent throughout the human population .
Some chance remains that this outcome could be prevented , but the odds are narrowing .
“ It ’ s too early to call it , but it ’ s on a knife ’ s edge , ” Professor Raina MacIntyre , head of the Biosecurity Research Program at the University of New South Wales , said by e-mail .
It ’ s hard to know how to respond to this .
The good news is that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s likely that human immunity will improve significantly .
That should push the fatality rate down from current levels of between 1 % and 3 % of cases to those more comparable with measles , which kills in about 0.1 % of cases outside of the poorest countries , or even seasonal influenza , which is closer to 0.005 % .
The trouble is , no one knows how many people will die on the way to establishing that immunity .
The figure could easily run into the millions — even the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people each year .
Measures being taken already may at least slow the progress of any further outbreaks .
Venice , the city that invented quarantine in the face of medieval epidemics , has shut down its historic annual carnival to limit infection .
Schools and sporting events have been closed too and 10 towns have been locked down in a manner similar to what we ’ ve seen in China .
This is unlikely to be enough .
If Covid-19 can really be carried undetected for as long as the Henan study @ @ @ @ @ @ @ way we can lock down the human population sufficiently to stop its worldwide spread .
The better course of action may be to accept that it may come to our neighborhoods sooner or later , and redouble efforts to build resilience and resistance .
That means following some of the basic practices suggested by risk communications specialists Jody Lanard and Peter Sandman : Regular hand-washing ; avoiding putting our hands to our faces ; limiting contact with regularly touched surfaces like lift buttons ; and ensuring we have sufficient basic supplies and essential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when health clinics become crowded with infected people and panic-buying clears out grocery shelves .
If that sounds worrying , it ’ s because pandemics are .
Mercifully , they are also relatively rare .
As with previous outbreaks , humanity will survive this infection , come to see it as normal , and even forget how it felt when it first struck fear into us .
If Covid-19 really has gone global , though , the next few months are likely to test all of us in much the same way that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so far .
We shouldn ’ t be overly alarmed — but we should certainly be alert .


washingtonpost--2020-02-13--Analysis | When God Appears in Contracts, That’s ‘Force Majeure’: QuickTake

Translated from the French , the term means something like “ superior strength.
” In other words , an external event that is “ unforeseeable and unavoidable , and not the result of the defendant ’ s actions , ” making it impossible for somebody to honor a contract , as Cornell Law School puts it .
Wars , riots , revolutions , explosions , strikes , port blockages , government actions , or natural disasters such as floods , earthquakes and tsunamis can all be force majeure events .
Anyone who can ’ t perform their contractual obligations for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It happens from time to time in energy and commodity markets , for both buyers and sellers .
In Nigeria , where pipelines can be subject to sabotage , oil sales are occasionally subject to the clause .
Australian iron ore and coal mines sometimes flood , prompting producers to declare it .
Then the transaction is usually suspended and you get more time to carry out whatever you contracted to do .
Eventually you have a right to terminate the deal .
They can be stuck .
A seller might have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suddenly refuses to take delivery of .
Sellers can also declare force majeure , pressuring those who need a commodity to source alternative supplies .
If a party feels that a force majeure declaration is frivolous , it can be challenged .
Many trading contracts adhere to English law , meaning that disputes will sometimes end up in London courts .
The decision may hinge on the specific language in the contract and whose laws apply .
Chinese authorities can issue force majeure certificates , which gives “ a certain authenticity ” to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a partner at HFW law firm and former head of litigation at Cargill Inc. “ But ultimately you have to establish that a clause is triggered.
” Illness is a very unusual reason for declaring force majeure , but coronavirus isn ’ t a common ailment .
It has quarantined entire cities in China , overwhelming hospitals while leaving streets and workplaces empty .
Some commodity contracts won ’ t include epidemics , Perrott said , although a case could still be argued .
“ The more the measures to contain the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said , the stronger the case .
However , it ’ s a brave trader who turns to the legal system to take on China .
In practice , those doing business with the world ’ s fastest-growing economy may find it easier to negotiate a solution that works for both sides .
It ’ s already happened with liquefied natural gas that China National Offshore Oil Corp. , the nation ’ s biggest buyer of the fuel , had contracted to purchase .
It said the epidemic hampered its ability to accept @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Total SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc rejected the term .
China is also a huge buyer of crude oil , iron ore and coal , meaning the longer the coronavirus squeezes the economy , the greater the pressure on those markets .
Some consumers are seeking to use other measures , such as deferring shipments , to avoid having to declare force majeure .
Traders often talk about “ price majeure , ” which isn ’ t a legal term but a joke about Chinese buyers using any excuse available to walk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ moved against them .
Take LNG : long-term cargoes are often priced as a percentage of the oil price , meaning that they cost about $ 6 per million per British thermal units .
In the meantime , the LNG cargoes can be bought in the spot market for as little as $ 3 per million British thermal units .
The trick for a buyer is to declare force majeure in the long-term supply contract , and turn around and buy cheaper cargoes in the spot market .
If that happens , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lawyers .
Force majeure clauses can be applied to almost any contract .
The cancellation of the annual showpiece technology congress , MWC , in Barcelona was described as a force majeure event by organizers .
A Chinese car-parts supplier to PSA Group also invoked force majeure .


washingtonpost--2020-02-24--Analysis | Coronavirus Sickens an Ailing Energy Bond Market

Exxon ’ s fall from grace is roughly inversely correlated with its counter-cyclical investment binge ; the sort of thing that worked better with investors when they ( a ) trusted oil majors to spend money wisely and ( b ) trusted oil demand to never stop going up .
It will be interesting to see if the messaging on strategy has shifted at all when Exxon faces analysts in 10 days ’ time .
The really vulnerable crowd , however , is those oil and gas producers who had compromised their immunity with excessive leverage , exposure to natural @ @ @ @ @ @ @ here in November , E & P stocks with higher debt have performed notably worse than less encumbered peers since last spring .
Coronavirus ’ impact on commodity prices and sentiment in general has exacerbated that .
Since the start of the year , low leverage stocks in my sample are down about 16 % ; not great , but better than the very-high leverage index , which has fallen more than 40 % .
The really eye-catching action is in the bond market .
The rush to safety in Treasuries has widened @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bonds for energy issuers .
The option-adjusted spread for the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Energy Index ended Friday at 772 basis points .
That ’ s up from 650 points at the start of 2020 .
But another way to look at it is that the gap between the energy index ’ s spread and the spread for the broader CCC-rated bond index — the junkiest end — has narrowed sharply .
Indeed , this spread-of-the-spreads is now narrower than at any time since early 2016 , the very depths of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that earlier panic in today ’ s market , the structure of the sector plays a part .
In terms of face value , almost a fifth of the energy high-yield index — which is the biggest sector of the overall index — is rated triple-C or less .
That segment of the market is highly concentrated in relatively few issuers , with the top five accounting for roughly half the market value , according to CreditSights .
That , er , upper echelon is dominated by the truly suffering oilfield services sector @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and struggling gas-weighted producer Chesapeake Energy Corp. , whose stock hasn ’ t traded above a buck since early November .
Meanwhile , single-B issues account for roughly another 40 % of the index .
While this segment is less concentrated , the biggest issuers consist of oilfield services again , gas-heavy producers and midstream names such as Genesis Energy LP , which , as an aside , slashed its dividend in late 2017 to save cash but now sports a higher yield than before that ( see this for some history ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a curve ball like coronavirus .
While oil dominates , keep an eye on natural gas , which had been hit hard by the mild winter already .
Benchmark prices are below $ 2 in the late February , and they are only that high because of the escape valve of liquefied exports .
Now coronavirus is leading some buyers to refuse cargoes .
If that spreads , then the effect will move quickly back up the chain to crash prices further in a U.S. market where the flaming flares of west Texas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
There was some relief in energy circles last week , and not just because virus-related fears had subsided .
Several Permian-focused E & P companies , such as Diamondback Energy Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Corp. reiterated plans for bigger payouts , signaling they were sticking with newfound strategies of drilling less and rewarding shareholders with more cash .
Monday serves as a reminder that the hole , dug over the course of years , is deep .
A broad shift in the sector ’ s mindset , while welcome , has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the duress is intensifying .
Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy , mining and commodities .
He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal ’ s Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times ’ Lex column .
He was also an investment banker .


washingtonpost--2020-03-30--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Coronavirus Pandemic

It ’ s been described as “ insidious ” because many infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , unwittingly spreading it to others .
The estimated median length of time between infection and the onset of symptoms is five to six days , and some of those who are infected don ’ t develop symptoms at all , including children .
A study of 191 patients in China found that the median duration of infectiousness was 20 days with a maximum of 37 days .
A Japanese study suggested that a substantial proportion of infections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ill .
This can make it difficult to identify the people they had close contact with during that infectious period so that precautions can be taken against further spread .
Estimates of the fatality rate are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak because there may be many people with mild cases who go uncounted .
Anthony Fauci , director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , said March 11 that the new coronavirus is 10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu , which has a mortality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would put it at about 1 % , similar to other projections .
A related coronavirus killed 9.5 % of patients in the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS , and another known as MERS-CoV has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded since 2012 .
In those outbreaks , however , the viruses didn ’ t transmit from one person to another as efficiently as this new one does , and they didn ’ t spread as widely .
In the worst pandemic in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people died from the 1918 influenza that had a case-fatality ratio of about 2 % and infected as much as a third of the world ’ s population .
The last pandemic , an outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 flu ( swine flu ) in 2009 , infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and killed an estimated 12,469 of them in the first year it circulated .
It appears to cause a mild illness lasting about two weeks in children , adolescents and younger adults in most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lasting three to six weeks in older people .
In a Chinese study , 81 % of confirmed cases were mild , 14 % were severe and 4.7 % critical .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , dry cough and tiredness .
A sudden loss of taste and smell is an early symptom among some patients .
Sputum production is another sign , if the virus stays in the nose and throat , which it does for the majority of people infected .
Danger starts when it reaches the lungs .
Apparently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issues .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with other illnesses such as high blood pressure , diabetes or cardiovascular disease .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found that 81 % of deaths occurred in patients over 60 years old ; in another study of about 4,000 cases in the U.S. , 80 % of those who died were 65 or older .
( By contrast , in the H1N1 pandemic , about 80 % of those who died were younger than 65 , according to the CDC . )
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Chinese hospital found that those with a relatively high virus count in the back of the nose and throat at the time of admission tended to develop more severe illnesses and remain infectious longer .
That suggests viral load might be a useful marker for making a prognosis , it said .
By coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes , according to the WHO .
These can be transferred directly to someone in close proximity or by touching a contaminated surface and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A study concluded that the novel coronavirus can survive four hours on copper , 24 hours on cardboard , 48 hours on stainless steel and 72 hours on plastic .
Simple disinfectants kill it .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the virus can spread through feces or in tiny particles known as aerosols .
In a preliminary study , researchers who aerosolized it under laboratory conditions found active virus can float in the air for as long as three hours .
The WHO stressed , however , that according to current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ medical procedures with Covid-19 patients that generate aerosols , such as tracheostomies .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people likely to be infected by an individual with the virus .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( pronounced “ r naught ” ) , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
A study of an outbreak aboard a cruise ship estimated that the r0 for Covid-19 was 2.28 during the early stages .
That would make it more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an r0 of about 1.3 and killed an estimated 61,000 people in the U.S. in the 2017-18 season .
There ’ s no evidence of that .
But “ false negative ” test results could give that impression .
A study published March 12 showed that a small proportion of recovered patients may test positive again days after discharge .
The authors theorized that it may take a few days for the immune system to completely eliminate residual viruses , which can be hard to detect .
During that period , the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the patient ’ s general health , there is a risk of a relapse .
That doesn ’ t necessarily mean that the patient who retests positive is contagious , but the researchers suggested further investigation and post-discharge surveillance .
Just because outbreaks of influenza wilt with seasonal changes doesn ’ t mean a different respiratory virus will behave in the same way , though there is some indication it may .
The easing of flu outbreaks in the summer doesn ’ t mean the virus dies out .
Some evidence suggests it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ returning again with cooler weather .
So , even if the coronavirus does subside in the summer , it could return in the fall .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats .
Diseases transmissible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to as zoonoses , comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
As long as you can ’ t get it twice , yes .
If enough people in a community develop immunity through prior illness or vaccination , so-called herd immunity can become established .
That reduces the number of susceptible people to a level at which transmission slows and eventually stops .
The necessary percentage depends on the r0 .
However , researchers at Imperial College London have warned that , in the absence of a vaccine , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is possible once quarantines and other intervention measures are lifted .
Some 60 million people in Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in Hubei province were quarantined in late January .
Makeshift hospitals were built and the production of medical equipment was ramped up .
Some treatment centers have started to pack up as patients there have recovered .
Numbers of new cases in China have dropped dramatically , leading some officials to say the current outbreak there is “ generally over.
” China is now among many countries restricting some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Production lines at factories are restarting .
Hubei province has begun lifting the mass quarantine in a show of confidence that the virus threat has been neutralized .
But its exclusion of people who test positive but show no symptoms from its official count is renewing concerns over whether its outbreak has truly come under control .
As Covid-19 spread , officials switched from trying to stop its spread to preparing for it amid shortages of testing kits , face masks and other equipment .
Italy , the worst-hit country in Europe , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdown , later shutting down factories and non-essential businesses .
India told its 1.3 billion people to stay home in the world ’ s biggest such effort at isolation .
Schools have been closed in many places .
U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national emergency and has significantly restricted international travel .
The National Guard has been deployed to help states cope .
People in several states including California and New York were told to stay home .
Emergency hospitals are being set up .
European leaders are restricting most travel into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while Hong Kong and Singapore banned tourist arrivals or transit passengers .
Governments have pledged trillions of dollars to contain the coronavirus and shore up financial markets and businesses , with the U.S. , the world ’ s biggest economy , teeing up $ 2 trillion .
The U.K. government said it would contribute to salaries of people whose jobs were threatened and step in to save the country ’ s railways .
Reactions to China ’ s response have been mixed .
The country did not immediately release genetic information about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the way it counts new cases .
But China ’ s strict quarantine likely bought the rest of the world two to three weeks to prepare for the virus and averted many infections , according to the WHO .
The initial U.S. response failed to stop the virus ’ s spread despite Trump ’ s tweet in late February that it was “ very much under control.
” His assertion in March that he wanted to see Americans back to work by Easter -- April 12 -- was later extended to April @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being overwhelmed , and some in the U.S. worry they could face the same fate .
South Korea appears to have slowed its epidemic by testing people at a faster rate than any other country .


washingtonpost--2020-03-30--Analysis | Drugs Authorized for Covid-19? Why There’s Skepticism

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration in late March controversially issued an Emergency Use Authorization providing for two malaria drugs , chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine , to be distributed and prescribed by doctors to Covid-19 patients .
The move came after President Donald Trump repeatedly touted the drugs .
Such authorizations are permitted during a crisis when a product ’ s “ known and potential benefits ” outweigh its “ known and potential risks.
” The FDA ’ s decision and Trump ’ s championing of the drugs have been criticized by scientists as premature .
In a small study in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but the trial ’ s methodology has been challenged , and in another small trial in China , the drug was no more effective than conventional care .
And it carries significant side effects .
Some people have been sickened , with reported deaths in the U.S. and France , after taking various versions to try to ward off or treat Covid-19 .
Plus panic-buying of hydroxychloroquine has created shortages of the drug for patients with malaria and the autoimmune disease lupus , for whom it is a proven therapy .
Even if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ animal or early human experiments , rigorous testing is needed to prove that it ’ s both safe and effective .
That requires carefully structured and monitored tests known as clinical trials .
Typically , these studies are designed to show that patients who get the drug do better than those who don ’ t , and that the results aren ’ t a product of chance .
The trials try to subtract all the other influences and factors that might disguise the true effectiveness of the drug .
For one thing , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their own , or improve because of supportive care such as rest and hydration .
And some really sick patients might not respond to treatment no matter how effective it is .
Treatments that don ’ t have approval from regulators such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration should be viewed with extreme caution .
The FDA and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission have warned multiple companies to stop selling unproven treatments for coronavirus .
It depends .
Drugs that are already approved against one infection and shown to be safe can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a matter of months .
Experimental drugs may take longer to test , as they have to go through initial studies to evaluate whether they are safe .
Other factors that can slow the process include the supply of drug candidates and the availability of patients to test them in .
The trials also have to be approved by ethics watchdogs and drug regulators .
According to a 2017 review , the median time for regulators to approve a new drug in 2015 was 333 days in the U.S. , 422 days in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
China has since expedited its process .
When drugs are deemed to fill an immediate need , regulators can speed them through the approval process using a number of paths .
More than 100 clinical trials have been launched in China to study everything from anti-flu drugs and antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients , to traditional Chinese herbal medicine .
A smaller number have been announced in countries including the U.S. , South Korea and Thailand .
World Health Organization researchers have identified as the most promising agent remdesivir , an experimental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a treatment for Ebola .
In animal studies , it produced encouraging results against related coronaviruses that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS ) and Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS ) .
Remdesivir trial results are expected from China in late April .
Larger trials of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are starting .
In a study in China published March 18 , AbbVie Inc. ’ s Kaletra , an HIV treatment combining two drugs , failed to improve the condition of coronavirus patients .
Another small , preliminary trial of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made by Fujifilm Holdings Corp. produced more promising results .
Moving at record speed , researchers began preliminary human testing of an experimental Covid-19 vaccine in mid-March in the Seattle area .
It was developed by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in collaboration with the biotechnology company Moderna Inc. Additional trials are expected as some of the world ’ s biggest companies are working on vaccine projects .
GlaxoSmithKline has teamed up with China-based Clover Biopharmaceuticals , while Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson are in separate collaborations with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Development Authority .
Widespread testing of experimental vaccines is important to reduce the possibility that they cause harm after being rolled out , as has been the case a number of times in the past .
Anthony Fauci , director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , said that it would take about a year and a half to complete trials of experimental coronavirus vaccines , scale up production and make a licensed product widely available .
There ’ s no guarantee trials will yield a successful vaccine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ product is a so-called messenger RNA vaccine , an unconventional approach that has yet to produce a vaccine licensed for human use .
SARS killed nearly 800 people in a 2002-2003 outbreak , and there still isn ’ t an approved vaccine .
In a project that could deliver a vaccine sooner , researchers in four countries will test a shot that ’ s already licensed to prevent tuberculosis to see if it will protect health workers against the coronavirus .


washingtonpost--2020-03-30--Analysis | Five-Minute Coronavirus Tests Will Aid Every Stage of the Fight

Faster and widely dispersed testing should help the U.S. track the virus better and slow the spread .
The speediness and portability of the platform means testing can take place in a wider variety of spaces ; that will keep people safer .
And while the worst of the crisis is yet to come and the U.S needs to slow infections before it can think about reopening the economy , once infection rates come down , rapid and portable testing can also hasten a recovery .
Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb published an excellent roadmap over the weekend for how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ normal .
It divides the response into four categories : slowing the spread , state-by-state reopening , lifting physical distancing , and rebuilding readiness .
Abbott ’ s test isn ’ t going to get America past any milestones on its own .
But the rapid diagnostic and others like it can play a unique role at each stage .
The priorities for slowing the spread are preventing new transmission via social distancing and keeping the health system from being overwhelmed .
That ’ s hard when people line up outside of packed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Abbott ’ s test is up and running , governments should work aggressively to direct people with mild symptoms or suspected exposure toward clinics , smaller physician practices , urgent-care facilities , or even pharmacies where it should be made widely available .
These moves would create distance , reduce burdens on hospital workers , get individuals peace of mind and needed medical and behavioral information in minutes , while giving governments much-needed data .
Cautiously reopening the economy in states that are seeing declining cases will require substantially boosted surveillance to prevent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and widely dispersed testing will be essential .
Coupled with antibody testing to establish acquired immunity and stepped-up public hygiene , states and employers can work with a wide net of convenient providers to get people screened before they return to work without putting them at risk .
Rapid tests will also help governments move from broad mitigation to targeted contact tracing and isolation .
High-risk individuals will likely still stay isolated , and low-density strategies will remain the rule , but parts of the population could begin to live a relatively normal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the economy , and responsibly doing so will help divert resources to areas that are still at the height of an outbreak .
Public health measures are all intended to buy time to build true national surveillance capability and effective treatments .
Rapid diagnostics will be the backbone of tracing efforts and can identify candidates for early intervention .
An optimal roll-out of these new tests will be difficult , given the fragmented nature of America ’ s response so far .
But if the U.S. embraces the challenge , it will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ road out of sheltering in place .


washingtonpost--2020-03-30--Analysis | How Coronavirus Is Shaking Up the Moral Universe

Many westerners are Rawlsians without knowing it .
Fifty years ago , the Harvard philosopher John Rawls tried to work out how people would construct their society if the choice had to be made behind what he called a “ veil of ignorance ” about whether they will be rich , poor or somewhere in-between .
Faced with the risk of being the worst off , Rawls posited , humans would not demand total equality , but would need to be assured of the trappings of a modern welfare state .
The assurance of basic necessities and the opportunity to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social and political justice and provide the ability for people to assert themselves .
Rawls ’ s monumental 1971 book , “ A Theory of Justice , ” is now regarded as the clearest moral and intellectual justification for modern center-left mixed economies .
But the idea comes from somewhere deeper .
Rawls was not religious , but his philosophy is essentially in line with the golden rule handed down by the Old Testament prophets and by Jesus , that we should do as we would want to be done by .
Some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ presented by the coronavirus just as Rawls would , by taking treatment of the worst off as the criterion for social action .
The most famous libertarian thought experiment was conducted by another Harvard philosopher , Robert Nozick , in a riposte to Rawls .
He imagined what kind of political state would be built , and how much personal liberty citizens would surrender , if everyone were dropped into a utopian landscape with no social structures .
The novelist William Golding gave one answer in “ The Lord of the Flies.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the schoolboys of Golding ’ s novel endure , Nozick , in “ Anarchy , State and Utopia , ” reckoned that people would set up a very limited state dedicated to self-defense and the protection of individual rights — but nothing more .
But wait .
There have been objections to lockdowns on the libertarian basis that they infringe on rights .
Critiques are appearing saying that politicians haven ’ t proven that such drastic measures are necessary .
Before the coronavirus , the U.S. suffered a measles epidemic as the result @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that put parents ’ right to choose not to vaccinate their children above the state ’ s attempt to defend other parents ’ right to expect that their own children wouldn ’ t have to mix with unvaccinated peers .
Panic buying , and hoarding of medical equipment also show that many people are following Rand ’ s idea of self-determination and putting themselves first .
Such ideas may grow more appealing after a few more weeks of self-isolation .
Libertarians are not only found on the political right .
As the crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Liberties Union made a statement accepting that civil liberties must “ sometimes ” give way when it comes to fighting a communicable disease — but “ only in ways that are scientifically justified.
” It said , “ The evidence is clear that travel bans and quarantines are not the solution.
” The right to walk in a park looks like a flash point .
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo was furious to see crowds expressing libertarian sympathies — whether they saw it that way or not — by gathering in parks .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cuomo said .
“ It ’ s self-destructive .
It ’ s disrespectful to other people .
And it has to stop and it has to stop now !
” New Yorkers are organizing to keep the parks open .
In these conditions , individual choices become freighted with moral significance .
How , for example , will society eventually judge behavior like that of Kentucky Senator Rand Paul ?
Arguably the most prominent libertarian in the U.S. , he continued to socialize as normal for a week after being told that he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ positive for the coronavirus .
He had no symptoms .
Recall that there are many elderly members of the Senate .
Last weekend , after a workout in the Senate gym , he discovered that he had himself tested positive .
Yet another approach is based on the notion that everyone derives their identify from the broader community .
Individual rights count , but not more than community norms .
These notions go back to the Greeks , but in modern times , the philosophy is most widely connected to the sociologist Amitai @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s “ Liberalism and the Limits of Justice ” is another riposte to Rawls , arguing that justice can not be determined in a vacuum or behind a veil of ignorance , but must be rooted in society .
He sets out a theory of justice based on the common good .


washingtonpost--2020-05-25--U.S. Cases Inch Up; California Sets Church Limits: Virus Update

“ We ’ re working very closely with university presidents , ” Pence said on “ Fox & Friends.
” @ @ @ @ @ that whether it be our universities around the country or whether it be primary and @ @ @ @ @ re -- in most areas of the country we ’ re going to be able @ @ @ @ @ school in a safe and responsible way.
” Cummings spoke after newspapers reported he drove @ @ @ @ @ northeast England in early April to seek family support for his 4-year-old son , after @ @ @ @ @ he began showing symptoms .
Local police said they are investigating whether Cummings had broken @ @ @ @ @ teacher said he saw Cummings at a spot 30 miles away from his parents ’ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-05-22--Trump’s Postal Service Feud Risks Riling Voters With Price Hikes

Trump has long railed against the Postal Service , accusing it of allowing drugs to be mailed into the U.S. from Mexico and China and for giving preferential rates to Amazon Inc. , whose co-founder Jeff Bezos also owns the Washington Post , a frequent target of Trump ’ s for its coverage of his presidency .
“ The post office , if they raised the price of a package by approximately four times , it would be a whole new ballgame , ” Trump said during the April 24 signing ceremony for a coronavirus relief package .
“ But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it because they don ’ t want to insult Amazon.
” “ Most of these people are Trump voters , ” said McHugh , a former Republican congressman from northern New York .
“ Why anyone on the Republican side of the aisle would want to bring the Postal Service close to a financial shutdown six to eight weeks out from the election and thinks that ’ s a vote-getter is beyond me.
” Yet Republican and Democratic lawmakers remain divided over whether the Postal Service should receive a taxpayer bailout as they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the next relief bill .
Congress included a $ 10 billion loan for the Postal Service in its last rescue package , but the money has been held up as the administration considers attaching tough terms in an attempt to force the agency to make changes sought by the president .
DeJoy ’ s background is in logistics , but he has no experience working for the agency .
He has a reputation as a tough businessman and a cost cutter , according to a person close to the Republican National Committee , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be run more like a business under his leadership .
“ I think people in general are very worried and wary because of the president ’ s outbursts about the Postal Service and the precarious position it finds itself in , ” said Art Sackler , manager of the Coalition for a 21st Century Postal Service .
“ A good deal of people are kind of waiting and seeing what is it they ’ re actually going to get when Mr. DeJoy is handed the keys.
” Democrats have positioned themselves as defenders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issue could give them a political edge in portraying Trump as an enemy of the working class .
The service ’ s 500,000-person workforce is second in size in the federal government only to the military and is one of the last union strongholds in the country .
“ President Trump supports our postal service and the hardworking men and women who work there and has vowed not to let the organization fail , ” Trump campaign spokesman Ken Farnaso said in a statement .
“ The postal service has been taken advantage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have to start paying their fair share instead of receiving below market rates , which has robbed our taxpayers and hurts our economy.
” Biden ’ s campaign emailed supporters on May 10 , asking them to sign a petition to “ send a crystal clear message that we ’ re standing strong with the Postal Service , ” citing Trump ’ s comments and the appointment of DeJoy as major threats .
Last month , Biden suggested Trump was attempting to bankrupt the Postal Service in order to cut off vote-by-mail in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2020 election .
The Postal Service has suffered from financial problems since well before the pandemic , losing billions of dollars per year going back a decade thanks to the declining popularity of mail and an obligation under a 2006 law to prepay retiree health benefits .
Bipartisan bills to overhaul the agency ’ s finances have failed to gain traction on Capitol Hill .
Supporters of the service say that raising rates would only hurt it .
Package shipments are one of its few remaining sources of profitability and increasing prices could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ FedEx .
At the same time , Amazon has already created its own delivery network , shipping an estimated 3.5 billion parcels last year .
That means it could skirt the damage from a rate hike while others pay the price .


washingtonpost--2020-03-25--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Coronavirus Pandemic

It has been described as “ insidious ” because many infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , unwittingly spreading it to others .
A study of 191 patients in China found that the median duration of infectiousness was 20 days with a maximum of 37 days .
A Japanese study found the interval from one infection to another may be about a day less than the estimated median incubation period of five to six days before the onset of symptoms .
Such a rapid generation of new cases makes contact tracing harder .
Estimates of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early stages of an outbreak because there may be many people with mild cases who go uncounted .
Anthony Fauci , director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , said March 11 that the new coronavirus is 10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu , which has a mortality rate of about 0.1 % .
That would put it at about 1 % , similar to other projections .
A related coronavirus killed 9.5 % of patients in the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded since 2012 .
In those outbreaks , however , the viruses didn ’ t transmit from one person to another as efficiently as this new one appears to do .
Certainly , they didn ’ t spread as widely as fast .
In the worst pandemic in recent history , an estimated 50 million people died from the 1918 influenza that had a case-fatality ratio of about 2 % and infected as much as a third of the world ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 flu ( swine flu ) in 2009 , infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and killed an estimated 12,469 of them in the first year it circulated .
It appears to cause a mild illness lasting about two weeks in children , adolescents and younger adults in most cases , and potentially more severe disease lasting three to six weeks in older people .
In a Chinese study , 81 % of confirmed cases were mild , 14 % were severe and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ signs are fever , dry cough , tiredness and sputum production if it stays in the nose and throat , which it does for the majority of people infected .
Danger starts when it reaches the lungs .
One in seven patients develops difficulty breathing and other severe complications , while 6 % become critically ill .
These patients typically suffer failure of the respiratory and other vital systems , and sometimes develop septic shock , according to a World Health Organization report .
In severe cases , studies suggest the virus invades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ causing difficulty breathing and the inflammation and congestion associated with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Apparently the elderly and those with underlying health issues .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with other illnesses such as high blood pressure , diabetes or cardiovascular disease .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found that 81 % of deaths occurred in patients over 60 years old ; in another study of about 4,000 cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those who died were 65 or older .
( In the H1N1 pandemic , about 80 % of those who died were younger than 65 , according to the CDC . )
A Lancet study of 76 patients in a Chinese hospital found that those with a relatively high virus count in the back of the nose and throat at the time of admission tended to develop more severe illnesses and remain infectious longer .
That suggests viral load might be a useful marker for making a prognosis , it said .
By @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes , according to the WHO ’ s first comprehensive report on Covid-19 .
These droplets can be transferred directly to someone else in close proximity or via hands and surfaces .
A study concluded that the novel coronavirus can survive four hours on copper , 24 hours on cardboard , 48 hours on stainless steel and 72 hours on plastic .
Simple disinfectants kill it .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the virus can spread through feces or in tiny particles known as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ researchers who aerosolized it found active virus can float in the air for as long as three hours .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people likely to be infected by an individual with the virus .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( pronounced “ r naught ” ) , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
A study of an outbreak aboard a cruise ship estimated that the r0 for Covid-19 was 2.28 during the early stages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than seasonal flu , which has an r0 of about 1.3 and killed an estimated 61,000 people in the U.S. in the 2017-18 season .
There ’ s no evidence of that .
But “ false negative ” test results could give that impression .
A study published March 12 showed that a small proportion of recovered patients may test positive again days after discharge .
The authors theorized that it may take a few days for the immune system to completely eliminate residual viruses , which can be hard to detect .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ briefly rebound and , depending on the patient ’ s general health , there is a risk of a relapse .
That doesn ’ t necessarily mean that the patient who retests positive is contagious , but the researchers suggested further investigation and post-discharge surveillance .
Just because outbreaks of influenza wilt with seasonal changes doesn ’ t mean a different respiratory virus will behave in the same way , though there is some indication it may .
The easing of flu outbreaks in the summer doesn ’ t mean the virus dies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the opposite hemisphere , before returning again with cooler weather .
So , even if the coronavirus does subside in the summer , it could return in the fall .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is closely related to several coronaviruses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ animals to humans , sometimes referred to as zoonoses , comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
As long as you can ’ t get it twice , yes .
If enough people in a community develop immunity through prior illness or vaccination , so-called herd immunity can become established .
That reduces the number of susceptible people to a level at which transmission slows and eventually stops .
The necessary percentage depends on the r0 .
However , researchers at Imperial College London have warned that , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ second wave ” of infections is possible once quarantines and other intervention measures are lifted .
Some 60 million people in Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in Hubei province were quarantined in late January .
Makeshift hospitals were built and the production of medical equipment was ramped up .
Some treatment centers have started to pack up as patients there have recovered .
Numbers of new cases in China have dropped dramatically , leading some officials to say the current outbreak there is “ generally over.
” China is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flights to combat imported cases .
Production lines at factories are restarting .
Hubei province has begun lifting the mass quarantine in a show of confidence that the virus threat has been neutralized .
But its exclusion of people who test positive but show no symptoms from its official count is renewing concerns over whether its outbreak has truly come under control .
As Covid-19 spread , officials switched from trying to stop its spread to preparing for it amid shortages of testing kits , face masks and other equipment .
Italy , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first to attempt a nationwide lockdown , later shutting down factories and non-essential businesses .
India told its 1.3 billion people to stay home in the world ’ s biggest such effort at isolation .
Schools have been closed in many places .
U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national emergency and has significantly restricted international travel .
The National Guard has been deployed to help states cope .
People in several states including California and New York were told to stay home .
Emergency hospitals are being set up .
European @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continent in an unprecedented move , while Hong Kong and Singapore banned tourist arrivals or transit passengers .
Governments around the world have pledged more than $ 1.9 trillion to contain the coronavirus and shore up financial markets and businesses , and the U.S. is teeing up $ 2 trillion more .
The U.K. government said it would contribute to salaries of people whose jobs were threatened and step in to save the country ’ s railways .
Reactions to China ’ s response have been mixed .
The country did not immediately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has struggled to explain changes in the way it counts new cases .
But China ’ s strict quarantine likely bought the rest of the world two to three weeks to prepare for the virus and averted many infections , according to the WHO .
The initial U.S. response failed to stop the virus ’ s spread despite Trump ’ s tweet in late February that it was “ very much under control.
” His assertion a month later that he wants to see Americans back to work by Easter -- April 12 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and state officials on the front lines .
Italy ’ s hospitals are being overwhelmed , and some in the U.S. worry they could face the same fate .
South Korea appears to have slowed its epidemic by testing people at a faster rate than any other country .
Disruptions in supply chains , reductions in travel , work-from-home orders and extreme market volatility have slowed economic activity , especially in China and its many trading partners .
China could see its first quarterly contraction in decades , although its leaders have begun @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A Bloomberg Economics model suggests a 53 % chance that the 11-year economic expansion in the U.S. will end within a year .
The economies of Japan , Germany , France and Italy were already shrinking or stalled before the virus outbreak , and the U.K. is wobbling amid Brexit uncertainty .
Financial markets have gyrated .
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates in its first emergency move since the financial crisis , then cut again , joined by many others .
A Group of Seven summit set for June was switched @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-03-19--Analysis | Where Are We in Quest for Coronavirus Drugs, Vaccine?

When faced with a new , serious disease causing fatal illness in thousands of patients , doctors often try unproven treatments that they think stand a chance of working .
When they note positive outcomes , they often try to make them public so that others can try the same approach , and perhaps save lives .
But good outcomes don ’ t necessarily mean a treatment is effective .
Patients often recover from viral illness on their own , or improve because of other forms of supportive care such as rest and hydration .
And some really sick patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how effective it is .
That requires carefully structured and monitored tests known as clinical trials .
Typically , these studies are designed to show that patients who get the drug do better than those who don ’ t , and that the results aren ’ t a product of chance .
The trials try to subtract all the other influences and factors that might disguise the true effectiveness of the drug .
Treatments that don ’ t have approval from regulators such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration should be viewed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. Federal Trade Commission have warned multiple companies to stop selling unproven treatments for coronavirus .
It depends .
Drugs that are already approved against one infection and shown to be safe can be tested for effectiveness against another in a matter of months .
Experimental drugs may take longer to test , as they have to go through initial studies to evaluate whether they are safe .
Other factors that can slow the process include the supply of drug candidates and the availability of patients to test them in .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ethics watchdogs and drug regulators .
According to a 2017 review , the median time for regulators to approve a new drug in 2015 was 333 days in the U.S. , 422 days in Europe , and 639 days in China .
China has since expedited its process .
When drugs are deemed to fill an immediate need , regulators can speed them through the approval process using a number of paths .
More than 100 clinical trials have been launched in China to study everything from anti-flu drugs and antibody-containing plasma from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ medicine .
A smaller number have been announced in countries including the U.S. , South Korea and Thailand .
World Health Organization researchers have identified as the most promising agent remdesivir , an experimental antiviral made by Gilead Sciences Inc. originally as a treatment for Ebola .
In animal studies , it produced encouraging results against related coronaviruses that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS ) and Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS ) .
Remdesivir trial results are expected from China in late April .
In a study in China published @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kaletra , an HIV treatment combining two drugs , failed to improve the condition of coronavirus patients .
Another trial of the flu medication favipiravir , or Avigan , made by Fujifilm Holdings Corp. produced more promising results .
Moving at record speed , researchers began preliminary human testing of an experimental Covid-19 vaccine in mid-March in the Seattle area .
It was developed by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in collaboration with the biotechnology company Moderna Inc .
Some of the world ’ s biggest companies also are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ teamed up with the Chinese-based Clover Biopharmaceuticals , while Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson are in separate collaborations with the U.S. government ’ s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority .
Anthony Fauci , director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , said that it would take about a year and a half to complete trials , scale up production and make a vaccine widely available .
There ’ s no guarantee trials will yield a successful vaccine , however .
SARS killed nearly 800 people in a 2002-2003 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t an approved vaccine .


washingtonpost--2020-03-25--Senate Hurtles to Vote in Hours on Record $2 Trillion Stimulus

“ The Senate is going to stand together , act together , and pass this historic relief package today , ” McConnell said as the chamber opened for business .
He said the timing of the vote would be set once he consults with Schumer , who said Democrats were ready to speed things along “ as much as possible.
” That includes struggling U.S. airlines , which will be eligible to receive a combined $ 62 billion in federal loans and direct cash assistance to meet their payrolls , including $ 25 billion in direct aid to passenger carriers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ providing ground staff such as caterers , and $ 4 billion to cargo haulers .
Any company receiving a government loan would be subject to a ban on stock buybacks through the term of the loan plus one additional year .
They also would have to limit executive bonuses and take steps to protect workers .
The Treasury Department would have to disclose the terms of loans or other aid to companies and a new Treasury inspector general would oversee the lending program .
There is a separate pot of more than $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of that will be in loans through the Small Business Administration and banks , guaranteed by federal government .
The loans used for payroll , mortgage and rent will be forgiven .
An additional $ 17 billion would enable the SBA to step in and make six months of principle and interest payments for all loans it backed .
For individuals the package provides direct payments to lower- and middle-income Americans of $ 1,200 for each adult , as well as $ 500 for each child .
Unemployment insurance would be expanded to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top of state benefits , which currently vary in length and amount , eligibility would be expanded to cover more workers .
The bill provides a tax credit for companies that retain employees even if they ’ ve been mandated to close or seen a significant drop-off in business .
Student loan borrowers who get assistance from their employers on paying those back don ’ t have to pay income tax on the aid .
That portion includes $ 117 billion for hospitals and veterans ’ health care ; $ 11 billion for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other preparedness needs ; $ 4.3 billion for the Centers for Disease Control ; $ 16 billion for the Strategic National Stockpile ; and $ 45 billion for the Federal Emergency Management Agency ’ s disaster relief fund .
Airports would get $ 10 billion and Amtrak $ 1 billion .
The funding adds to the $ 8 billion boost provided three weeks ago .
Any one senator has the power to delay a swift vote .
Republican Senators Tim Scott , Ben Sasse , and Lindsey Graham released a joint statement Thursday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ until a “ massive drafting error ” in the text is fixed .
They said as written , a section of the legislation on unemployment insurance would create an incentive for unemployment .
Some workers would make more in unemployment benefits than they do on the job with the added benefits in the bill .
The same hurdles to quick passage apply to the House , where lawmakers are currently on a recess .
Pelosi and Republican leaders were trying to line up their members for approval by unanimous consent , which wouldn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Washington for a recorded vote .
Several Democrats told Pelosi in a closed-door conference call on Tuesday that they are not comfortable with simply rubber stamping a Senate-passed bill .
The package will likely more than double a U.S budget deficit that was already set to hit $ 1 trillion this year before the outbreak .
It also may not be the last infusion of government spending in response to the spread of the virus .
Lawmakers universally expressed a sense of urgency as the nation ’ s economy deteriorates and the health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health Organization said the U.S. has the potential to become the new epicenter of the global pandemic as the number of known infections soars .


washingtonpost--2020-03-25--Analysis | Is Vince McMahon Ready to Tap Out?

McMahon , the 74-year-old chairman and CEO of WWE , is now looking to free up funds without relinquishing his control over the wrestling empire .
On Tuesday , the company disclosed that McMahon entered into a prepaid variable forward contract , which essentially functions as a cash advance from a bank .
The way it works is , McMahon agrees to eventually sell some of his shares at some future date — March 2024 , in this case — receiving the money now , but without having to actually turn over the stock or pay taxes on the sale @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Drew Singer , the bank was Morgan Stanley and the deal priced 2.26 million shares at $ 38 apiece , representing more than $ 80 million in freed-up liquidity .
In the meantime , McMahon gets to collect the usual dividends on those shares , and he can keep the holdings by settling the contract for cash .
The agreement also doesn ’ t affect McMahon ’ s other 25 million or so class B shares , which represent just over 70 % of the company ’ s total voting power .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. , WWE was having a tough year , amid a shrinking number of subscribers to its streaming-TV service , WWE Network , and setbacks with international distribution deals .
After the latest earnings disappointment , McMahon fired co-presidents George Barrios and Michelle Wilson , citing “ different views ” on how to achieve the company ’ s strategic goals , in what came as a disconcerting sign to investors .
McMahon , as revered as he is by wrestling fans — his own ring persona , Mr. McMahon , is based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ faced some criticism lately for not keeping the franchise fresh enough .
He also came under fire last year following John Oliver ’ s scathing “ Last Week Tonight ” segment on the health and treatment of WWE ’ s wrestlers .
Notably , while other sports leagues aren ’ t having their teams play to protect them from the spread of the virus , WWE ’ s cast is still having to work — and in close contact , too .
WrestleMania , the company ’ s biggest annual event , is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ without any fans allowed to attend in person , it will lose out on important ticket and merchandise sales .
Viewers can watch on the $ 10-a-month WWE Network app or on pay-per-view .
( Walt Disney Co. ’ s ESPN , struggling to fill its own programming schedule , has been airing WrestleMania classics . )
In bringing back the XFL , which played just one season in 2001 , McMahon was hoping to inject some of the WWE flavor into a sport that he sees as dull under the National Football @ @ @ @ @ @ @ When he announced the XFL would return in February 2020 , news stories questioned whether it would work this time , giving McMahon something to prove .
Now both his babies are hurting , and his wealth is tied up in them .
For years , WWE has been considered an attractive takeover candidate for media giants and live-events companies .
It holds a ton of valuable intellectual property in its characters and story lines , which in theory leaves open a realm of possibilities for a buyer with Disney-like ingenuity , building @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Marvel comic books .
Likewise , WWE might appeal to those looking to invest more in sports , as Fox Corp. has stated it ’ s doing .
Media companies are also paying big sums for content with which to stock their new streaming services , such as the Peacock app being introduced next month by Comcast Corp. ’ s NBCUniversal .
McMahon has long been opposed to selling the company , wanting it to stay in the family .
His daughter Stephanie McMahon manages the brand , and her husband Paul @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and live events — both are wrestlers .
The PVF contract helps protect that ownership .
It may also help to have Donald Trump connections : McMahon ’ s wife , Linda McMahon , runs the pro-Trump super PAC called America First Action , after stepping down as the president ’ s head of the Small Business Administration last year .
That said , with money tight , the outlook for traditional cable networks souring and McMahon ’ s XFL passion project meeting an untimely finish once again , now may be the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their shot .


washingtonpost--2020-03-25--Mnuchin Expects Senate Bill To Pass Tonight: Congress Update

Four GOP senators earlier Wednesday pressed for a cap on unemployment benefits to ensure laid-off workers aren ’ t paid more than their previous level of wages .
They said that otherwise employers would have an incentive to lay off workers so they could get higher benefits .
Sanders , a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination , said he would block the legislation himself if the Republicans did not relent .
Sanders says he wants tougher oversight on aid for corporations and wants to require them to pay higher wages and stop offshoring jobs .
“ If the federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life-threatening shortages in sectors where doctors , nurses , and pharmacists are trying to care for the sick , and where growers and grocers , truckers and cooks are trying to get food to families ’ tables , ” the senators said in a statement .
-- Erik Wasson Pelosi has said she wants the House to act by voice vote , without having to call members to Washington .
Some Democratic members have said they want time to examine the bill .
GOP Senator Pat Toomey told reporters the plan will cost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a “ long list ” of tax incentives , including a two-year suspension of the employer share of payroll taxes , and an employee-retention tax credit for employers too big for small business loans .
It will be up to 50 percent of wages , Toomey said .
She had said Tuesday that she hoped the House would be able to pass a Senate measure by voice vote without having to bring members to Washington .
That is only an option if no House member objects .
The agreement clears the way for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Wednesday and send the measure to the House .
The Democratic-led House will have to pass the same version before sending it to Trump .
The plan includes about $ 500 billion that can be used to back loans and assistance to companies , including $ 50 billion for loans to U.S. airlines , as well as state and local governments .
It also has more than $ 350 billion to aid small businesses .
Then there is $ 150 billion for hospitals and other health-care providers for equipment and supplies .