washingtonpost--2020-06-15--Shortage of Safety Supplies Adds to Risks for U.S. Reopening

“ It ’ s been challenging , ” said Peter Elitzer , president of Peter Harris Clothes , a discount retailer that has reopened almost all of its 79 stores .
“ How do you find the masks ?
How do you find the sanitizer ?
How do you find the wipes ?
Forget it .
To get the Clorox wipes is completely impossible.
” Elitzer shelled out $ 60 a gallon for hand sanitizer before tracking down a distiller that could produce it for $ 35 -- still triple the usual price .
Plastic barriers , masks and thermometers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The company had to furlough workers just to cover the $ 50,000 in added expenses .
Inventories will remain tight and short-term price spikes are expected for high-demand items as businesses crank back up just as doctors begin performing elective surgeries again , said D.G .
Macpherson , chief executive officer of W.W. Grainger Inc. , the largest U.S. distributor of industrial supplies .
Hospitals also are rebuilding stockpiles ahead of a potential second wave of the virus later this year .
As manufacturers scurry to meet demand , bottlenecks are popping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ typical nine-month procedure into six weeks to open production sites for N95 masks in Rhode Island and Arizona .
The company wants to add more capacity but is bumping up against a lack of the filter material that ’ s sandwiched between the inner and outer layers .
Disposable gloves and hospital gowns are among the items with the biggest kinks in the supply chain , he said .
Honeywell is looking to set up U.S. output of hospital gowns after beginning a production line in North Africa .
The company doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ third-party manufacturers and sells them , a task that ’ s become difficult after the World Health Organization put in an order for “ multiple millions ” of them , Lange said .
The tight market for those products could become critical if Covid-19 resurges .
As it is , cases are accelerating in some states , with Texas and Florida reporting record numbers of new infections .
This has led to concerns that reopenings may come at the cost of spreading the virus .
“ I don ’ t think the supply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wave of massive demand for PPE , ” Lange said .
“ It ’ s probably going to take about nine months to get to a really good spot.
” Maryam Barnes , an orthodontist in the Dallas suburb of Allen , Texas , said she is paying exorbitant prices for masks , gowns , face shields and other supplies just as the number of patients she ’ s able to schedule has dropped by half because of social distancing .
“ Disposable gowns -- those are ridiculous , ” Barnes said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20 each , whereas it used to be $ 20 to $ 30 for boxes of 50 , she said .
The top concerns among small-business owners are whether customers will return as they reopen and if there will be adequate supplies of hand sanitizer , disinfectants and face coverings , according to a survey in May by the National Federation of Independent Business .
The trade group , which represents about 300,000 small businesses , had urged members to begin accumulating those supplies about a month ago in anticipation of the reopening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ research and policy analysis .
There ’ s concern that larger companies with more buying power will have an edge in acquiring essential goods , squeezing small businesses even more on availability .
H Town Restaurant Group , which has four locations in the Houston area , stocked up on about six weeks of supplies including masks , gloves and sanitizer and is purchasing more in case a second wave of the virus puts more pressure on the supply chain , said co-owner Tracy Vaught .
The group is operating at a loss @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capacity , and the extra cost of protective gear for her 150 employees doesn ’ t help .
In Albany , New York , Elitzer of Peter Harris Clothes worked from his dining-room table during the lockdown to secure supplies .
Locally made face coverings cost $ 8 apiece before he received a shipment from China at $ 1.45 each .
He negotiated acrylic barriers down to $ 75 each from a local sign manufacturer , after initially paying as much as $ 175 .
Other entrepreneurs are also proving resourceful in finding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who co-owns a prenatal-imaging center in Reno , Nevada , resorted to making his own hand sanitizer from aloe and Everclear grain alcohol to provide for workers and the patients he attended throughout the pandemic .
“ Early on , it was a real scramble .
We were at the point of getting desperate to locate certain items , ” said Trollope , who now can buy sanitizer again .
“ The supply chain seems to be mending itself.
” “ For the next few years , we ’ re going to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ products are going to be the norm for how we work , ” he said .
“ Frankly , when we go into the grocery store , you ask yourself , ‘ Why didn ’ t we always have this ?
Why did we let people sneeze on each other in the first place ?
’ ”


washingtonpost--2020-02-18--Analysis | To Ray Dalio, $10 Million for China Is Pocket Change

It ’ s high time that U.S. hedge funds start cozying up to China , especially as they suffer at home .
Last year , mainland-focused funds returned 23.2 % , compared with 9.7 % for their global peers , data provided by Nasdaq-owned eVestment Inc. show .
Greenwoods Asset Management Ltd. ’ s $ 2.2 billion Golden China Fund jumped 47.3 % , while Orchid Asia Group Management Ltd. ’ s China Master Fund rose 32.2 % .
As China opens up its financial industry , foreign hedge funds are walking a fine line of making money without alienating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long as stocks are rising .
But if the market turns sour , regulators could be quick to shut down those who dare to short it .
That ’ s why it pays to be in Beijing ’ s good graces now .
Dalio has always enjoyed a rock-star investor status in China , despite his prescient warning before the spectacular boom-and-bust of mainland shares in 2015 .
Griffin ’ s relationship with Beijing is more checkered .
In August of that year , officials suspended a Shanghai trading account operated by Citadel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brokerage arm , and subsequently launched an investigation into its “ malicious short-selling.
” Citadel only managed to redeem itself with a $ 97 million settlement last month .
In that light , Griffin ’ s $ 7.5 million relief money looks like extra atonement .
China ’ s stock market enjoyed a bull run last year , and there ’ s good reason to believe 2020 will be quite a bit of fun , too .
Markets are certainly trading like there ’ s a big stimulus in the works .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of its losses since the prolonged Lunar New Year break , while the new economy-focused ChiNext Index has notched a 19 % gain so far this year .
China ’ s 10-year government bond yield has fallen below 3 % for the first time since late 2016 .
Traders are latching onto a speech President Xi Jinping made during the Politburo meeting on Feb. 3 .
He insisted on delivering this year ’ s economic target — broadly interpreted as keeping gross domestic product growth at around 6 % — despite the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and millions are effectively under curfew , that would mean helicopter money now and big-ticket infrastructure spending down the road , when migrant workers are once again allowed to move about .
Signs are also pointing to the easing of the government ’ s deleveraging campaign , which charged ahead even as the trade war took an economic toll .
Draconian shadow-financing rules , which caused two years of record corporate defaults , may be pushed back .
On Monday , the People ’ s Bank of China cut its underlying benchmark rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a rate-cut cycle .
Local governments , meanwhile , are already allowed to issue more than 1.8 trillion yuan ( $ 257.8 billion ) of municipal bonds , ahead of the National People ’ s Congress in early March when fiscal-deficit and bond-issue quotas are announced .
These policy moves are reminiscent of early 2015 , when the central bank unleashed a flood of liquidity , which helped engineer mainland shares ’ meteoric run .
While Chinese households lost billions — or roughly 1.3 % of GDP , according to Dalio — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and sold at the opportune time would have come out nicely .
For years now , China has been relatively open to foreign funds eager to pour cash into its trillion-dollar markets .
These investors can access most mainland stocks and bonds via Hong Kong ’ s connect program , and some tap a broader universe of securities through an earlier-established quota system .
But the jarring experience of 2015 will always remind foreigners that the regulators can shut down their accounts any moment .
So a bit of public relations now can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which has infected more than 70,000 , could be a black swan or a great trading opportunity .
For foreign fund managers to capture this moment , however , they need to be on China ’ s good side .
Don ’ t be shy about sending in masks and protective suits .
These virus relief funds are charitable dollars , but also smart money .

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washingtonpost--2020-02-18--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Spreading Coronavirus

It has been described as “ insidious ” because a large portion of infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , potentially spreading it to others .
As of mid-February the apparent mortality rate was about 2 % , lower than the 9.5 % rate for SARS .
But such numbers are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak .
Some disease modeling experts project as many as hundreds of thousands of people are actually infected , most of whom won ’ t even know they have it .
One study published Feb. 10 estimated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all cases , including those with no or only mild symptoms , are counted .
A more rigorous test for the virus produced a jump in the number of detected cases around mid-February .
The disease caused by the virus has been named Covid-19 .
Infections appear to cause a mild illness in children , adolescents and younger adults in most cases , and potentially more severe disease in older people .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , dry cough and tiredness -- but not the sneezing and runny nose typical of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ studies suggest the virus invades cells in the lower respiratory tract and migrates to the lungs , causing difficulty breathing and the inflammation and congestion associated with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with underlying illnesses such as cardiovascular disease .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found the majority of deaths occurred in patients over 60 years old .
Of confirmed cases , 81 % were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4.7 % critical .
The virus that causes Covid-19 is genetically similar to the SARS virus but appears milder in terms of illness and case fatality rate .
Another related virus , known as MERS-CoV , that ’ s been spreading since 2012 has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded .
By contrast , an estimated 50 million people died in the 1918 influenza pandemic that had a case-fatality ratio of less than 5 % , but infected up to a third of the world ’ s population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with virus-containing droplets that are emitted when an infected person breathes , talks , coughs or sneezes .
These can be transferred directly to someone else in close proximity or via hands and surfaces .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the virus can spread through feces or farther through the air in tiny particles known as aerosols .
People who are still incubating the virus and show no symptoms may spread it .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people a person who is infected is likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a basic reproduction number , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
The World Health Organization gives a preliminary range of 1.4 to 2.5 for 2019-nCoV .
At the high end , that makes it similar to SARS and more infectious than flu .
A group from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing estimated the number to be 4.08 .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them , responsible for diseases that range in severity from the common @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from person to person , while others do not .
The WHO says that new strains emerge periodically around the globe , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronaviruses found in bats than it is to the SARS coronavirus .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
There is always concern when a new pathogen emerges in people because they typically lack immunity to it and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel coronaviruses , those not seen in humans before , represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
Unlike SARS , relatively few cases have been reported outside mainland China .
But in Hubei , thousands of people have been hospitalized in isolation wards and hundreds are being treated in intensive care units , creating what officials there have described as an “ extreme , severe and abrupt public health crisis.
” A Wuhan hospital saw coronavirus infections spread rapidly among health-care staff and other patients , according to a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in the region , a travel ban covering in excess of 50 million people .
New hospitals were built from the ground up in days , and the production of medical equipment ramped up .
The WHO has declared the outbreak a global health emergency , a designation that can help mobilize international responses .
Anyone caught spreading misinformation was subject to criminal charges in some Asian countries .
Hong Kong , the international financial center that functions with some autonomy from China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the mainland .
The U.S. , Australia , India and other countries are denying or restricting entry for non-citizens arriving from China in an attempt to stop the virus ’ s spread , although the WHO has called such measures unnecessary .
Early praise for China ’ s response has ebbed .
The country did not immediately release genetic information about the virus and has struggled to explain changes in the way it counts new cases .
In a nation where the internet is heavily censored , there was a rare outpouring of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus of a Chinese doctor who had waved an early red flag about the outbreak but was silenced by police .
The top officials in Wuhan and Hubei were later removed from their posts .


washingtonpost--2020-02-18--Analysis | Apple Is Handcuffed to the iPhone. Just Like Its Customers

This showed that investors were more confident in Google and Facebook maintaining , or increasing , their profits than they were in Apple doing the same .
That was largely because Apple is fundamentally a hardware company : At the time it was getting almost two-thirds of its revenue from the iPhone .
It has lower gross profit margins since it has to pay for all the components used to make the handsets , as well as the labor and shipping costs .
And , in order to meet its earnings targets , Apple has to convince consumers to spend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two years .
If it ever came up with a dud iPhone , then earnings would suffer .
As software companies , Google and Facebook have much higher gross profit .
And given their stranglehold on internet advertising , they can count on regularly recurring revenue from that business .
Back in 2017 , Facebook knew it could generate an average of $ 21 per quarter for each user from fees that brands would pay to get their ads in front of users ’ eyeballs .
It wasn ’ t dependent on any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flowing .
Apple , unhappy about its relative discount , has spent much of the past four years working to lose it by moving beyond hardware .
In 2019 , iPhone sales represented 55 % of its total revenue , down from a 2015 peak of 66 % .
In part , that ’ s because sales of the smartphone have declined , but Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook has also invested aggressively in new services ( think Apple Music , TV+ , News+ , Arcade and so on ) , as well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Watch and AirPods .
This has made Apple less dependent on the iPhone .
And it ’ s made the company ’ s customers more dependent on the device .
Since the Apple Watch must be paired with an iPhone , for instance , it reduces the chance of customers trading in their Apple handset for a phone that runs on Android .
The handcuffs are tightened every time somebody installs a new game from Arcade or adds songs from Apple Music to their library – they ’ d lose them all by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Apple ’ s valuation has reacted commensurately .
The stock is trading at 23 times forward earnings , more than Facebook ’ s 21 times and just shy of Alphabet ’ s 24 times .
That ’ s partly down to the adtech giants ’ own regulatory troubles — brought on by their troubling use of personal data and disquiet about their online ads duopoly .
But Apple has succeeded too in convincing investors that it has dependable recurring revenue .
That faith will have been shaken a little on Tuesday morning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first three months of the year won ’ t hit the low end of its expected $ 63 billion to $ 67 billion range .
The stock was trading some 4 % lower in out-of-hours trading .
The new coronavirus has stifled demand from Chinese shoppers less able to leave the house , and made it harder to recruit the workers needed to make its new low-cost handset .
That stifled demand will no doubt recover once the virus abates .
Nonetheless , this is a clear reminder that , for all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Apple ’ s chief source of income .
And that it will always be vulnerable to the capricious nature of consumer demand .


washingtonpost--2020-02-18--Analysis | HSBC Is No Man’s Land for Quinn or Anyone Else

The London-based lender will cut as many as 35,000 jobs , reduce gross assets by more than $ 100 billion by 2022 , shave annual costs by $ 4.5 billion and slash the size of its investment bank in Europe and U.S. in the biggest raft of changes for years .
All this will be overseen by Interim Chief Executive Officer Noel Quinn pending the appointment of a permanent successor to John Flint , who was ousted last August .
Quinn was left to present the plan even as HSBC declined to confirm him in the job .
This is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it undercuts the authority and investor confidence that Quinn might otherwise be expected to enjoy , should he eventually be appointed .
At the very least , the delay signals that the board has harbored doubts about his suitability .
Second , going ahead with the revamp may impede the search for a replacement .
Any chief executive worth his or her salt will expect to put a personal stamp on the company .
But the biggest decisions have already been made .
This reshaping will have Quinn ’ s fingerprints all over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for HSBC Chairman Mark Tucker .
Stephen Bird , Citigroup Inc. ’ s former top executive in Asia and the leading external candidate for the job , already has ruled himself out , the U.K. ’ s Sunday Times reported last weekend , citing unidentified sources .
HSBC might argue that waiting wasn ’ t an option after years of sub-par performance .
“ Parts of our business are not delivering acceptable returns , ” Quinn said in Tuesday ’ s statement .
HSBC will shift resources to higher-returning markets , while squeezing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lines .
“ The current strategy is in no man ’ s land , ” as one investor told Bloomberg News pre-earnings .
No one could accuse HSBC of sparing the knife this time .
The job cuts are equal to about 15 % of the workforce .
They ’ re also an answer to those who , like this writer , have criticized the bank for being overly timid in the past .
Still , the overhaul may end up exacerbating some of the vulnerabilities they seek to address .
The restructuring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fortunes of Hong Kong and mainland China , two economies struggling with slowing growth aggravated by the coronavirus outbreak .
Hong Kong was already the source of 90 % of HSBC ’ s profit in the third quarter .
The city is going to become an even more glaring presence in its books .
Besides an economy in recession , competition is getting tougher for HSBC in the city , as online lenders backed by Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. prepare to launch this year .
Hong Kong ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ navigate political minefields , including being the target of the public ire last year after it closed an account linked to pro-democracy protesters .
China , meanwhile , remains a challenge .
HSBC is still struggling to extricate itself from Beijing ’ s bad books for providing U.S. prosecutors with information that led to the arrest of Huawei Technologies Co. ’ s chief financial officer in late 2018 .
And disruption to supply chains from the virus outbreak may lead to more credit losses , the bank has said .
That means it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time before HSBC achieves the returns Tucker seeks .
While 2019 adjusted pretax profit of $ 22.2 billion beat analysts ’ estimates , HSBC ’ s fourth-quarter return on tangible equity was a mere 8.4 % .
That ’ s much lower than the more than 11 % target it abandoned in October .
Even its new goal of 10 % -12 % by 2022 looks unambitious beside the 18 % return of JPMorgan Chase & Co. HSBC shares closed 2.8 % lower in Hong Kong after the earnings , the biggest decline @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , HSBC ’ s biggest risk may be that Quinn ’ s cuts cause the lender to double down on greater China just as growth in this part of Asia is uncertain .
Outside CEOs won ’ t be clamoring to steer this ship .
Quinn may just be stuck with the job .


washingtonpost--2020-02-18--Analysis | Apple’s Virus Cut Puts All Eyes on Tech Bellwether

While we should expect similar downbeat tones through the rest of the sector , this really means we should keep tabs on the one company that sits at the heart of the global technology supply chain : Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Apple is TSMC ’ s largest customer .
When the chipmaker gave its own first-quarter and full-year forecasts Jan. 16 , the world had barely heard of the disease now riveting its attention .
Since then , Apple has shut stores in China and downstream assemblers like Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. have struggled to ramp up production after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarantines and a shortage of workers willing to return to the factory floor .
Nvidia Corp. , which designs graphics chips , is another major client of TSMC .
On Feb. 13 , it said the virus had cut its forecast by $ 100 million .
That ’ s only around 3 % of expected revenue for the quarter , but it all eventually adds up .
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. , not a direct customer , forecast a decline in revenue from its core businesses as consumers on its e-commerce platform shy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of those lost sales will be electronics products , which use chips made by TSMC .
Chinese companies , including Huawei Technologies Co. , accounted for 20 % of TSMC ’ s revenue last year .
With numerous enterprises in China on lockdown , adding to the squeeze on both demand and production , it ’ s unlikely such clients will be able to escape the impact .
And last week , wireless industry association GSMA scrapped its annual Mobile World Congress scheduled for Feb. 24 in Barcelona because most of its major @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isn ’ t a consumer event , but the cancellation shows the breadth and reach of the outbreak ’ s impact on business .
Revising guidance mid-quarter isn ’ t without precedent , and TSMC usually does with a statement filed mid-afternoon Taipei time .
It did so a year ago this week , cutting its sales and profit outlook after facing troubles with chemicals used in the manufacturing process .
The result was a 10 % reduction in operating profit .
Just a few months before that , a production hiccup caused @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hurt gross profit by around 5 % .
An earthquake four years ago sliced operating income by about 7 % .
The biggest mid-quarter guidance cut I could find is the 25 % hit to operating profit that it took in December 2008 as the financial crisis brought the world economy to a halt .
To be sure , it ’ s not certain that a cut will be necessary this time .
Clients may decide that they want to keep building up inventory of the chips that come out of TSMC ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , end-demand may dictate a more cautious approach to procurement .
This epidemic is proving hard to quantify , so TSMC ’ s biggest challenge may not be whether to revise guidance , but what new number to give .


washingtonpost--2020-05-28--Analysis | What Hong Kong Losing Its ‘Special Status’ Would Mean

Possibly .
The president has long had the power to suspend it with an executive order , yet hasn ’ t .
Then came an added pressure : a U.S. law passed last year requires the secretary of state to certify -- as part of an annual report to Congress -- whether Hong Kong remains “ sufficiently autonomous ” from Beijing to justify its unique treatment .
That includes assessing the degree to which Hong Kong ’ s autonomy had been eroded by the government of China .
( Hong Kong is part of China but has a different legal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its time as a British colony . )
On May 27 , Secretary of State Mike Pompeo notified Congress that the Trump administration no longer regarded Hong Kong as autonomous from mainland China .
It ’ s too soon to say .
Pompeo ’ s decision opens the door for a range of options , from visa restrictions and asset freezes for top officials to possibly imposing tariffs on goods coming from Hong Kong .
Other measures could target Chinese Communist Party officials .
It ’ s up to Trump to decide how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s also threatening consequences for China over its handling of the coronavirus .
Hurting China also carries additional risks for the U.S. economy , including the U.S.-China trade deal that Trump had considered one of his biggest achievements , which could affect Trump ’ s odds of winning re-election .
U.S. officials have given mixed signals about what might happen next , and when .
While Hong Kong remains a key gateway from China to the rest of the world , it matters far less to the country ’ s fortunes than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 12 % of China ’ s exports went to or through Hong Kong , down from 45 % in 1992 .
China is also far less reliant on inflows of foreign capital and expertise , and has made a much lower priority of making the yuan an international currency .
Nonetheless , the city still matters .
Hong Kong ’ s open capital account and adherence to international standards of governance are unmatched by any mainland Chinese city and make it an important base for international banks and trading firms .
Revoking the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ option ” and “ the beginning of the death of Hong Kong as we know it , ” said Steve Tsang , director of the University of London ’ s SOAS China Institute .
One worst-case scenario : if the U.S. treats Hong Kong no differently than any other Chinese city , why wouldn ’ t ratings firms and investors do the same ?
It ’ s a question posed by Deutsche Bank , which noted that S & P Global Ratings has Hong Kong three notches above China while Moody ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ higher .
The risk is that China ’ s own rating gets lowered in coming years and drags Hong Kong ’ s with it .
At the same time , equity index providers may take a fresh look at Hong Kong , which is currently in the MSCI World Index with other developed markets .
China is in the emerging market index , raising the question , should Hong Kong be treated the same as Shanghai and Shenzhen ?
It has its own reasons for not rocking the boat too much .
Hong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese rule , offers U.S. companies a relatively safe way to access the Chinese market and employs a U.S. dollar peg , linking it with the American financial system .
According to the Congressional Research Service , the largest U.S. trade surplus in 2018 was with Hong Kong — $ 31.1 billion .
Some 290 U.S. companies had regional headquarters in the city that year and another 434 had regional offices , it said .
Hong Kong ’ s first justice minister after the handover to China in 1997 , Elsie Leung , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ May that any damage would be mutual : “ We are not just getting the benefits – it ’ s a free-trade arrangement which is good for both sides.
” Pompeo ’ s decision , let alone any sanctions or move to rescind the special status , will further strain the relationship between the U.S. and China , already under pressure from the coronavirus pandemic , the Hong Kong protests , an ongoing trade war and other issues .
In addition to the annual review of Hong Kong ’ s trading status , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ freeze U.S.-based assets of , and deny entry to the U.S. by , any individuals found responsible for abducting and torturing human rights activists in Hong Kong .
Such sanctions could come sooner than a suspension of the trading status , and would obviously complicate things further .
When Britain handed Hong Kong back to China , the Chinese government pledged that the city would have a “ high degree of autonomy ” in its legal and economic affairs for 50 years , under an arrangement known as “ one country , two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conditions in Hong Kong said the city ’ s autonomy was “ sufficient -- although diminished.
” After the protests erupted in June 2019 , the State Department said that “ continued erosion ” of Hong Kong ’ s autonomy put its “ long-established status in international affairs ” at risk .
A day after Pompeo declared Hong Kong no longer autonomous , Chinese lawmakers approved the draft national security legislation for Hong Kong anyway .
“ Hong Kong is purely China ’ s internal affair , ” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take “ necessary countermeasures ” against any “ interference ” by “ external forces.
” China said last year it would sanction some U.S.-based activist groups including the National Endowment for Democracy , Human Rights Watch and Freedom House , and suspend port visits by U.S. Navy ships to Hong Kong .
“ China urges the U.S. side to correct its mistakes and stop any words and deeds that interfere in Hong Kong affairs and China ’ s internal politics , ” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said then .
The official Xinhua @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” accusations about the loss of freedom or human rights issues in Hong Kong .
It also noted that the 2018 Human Freedom Index compiled by the Fraser Institute , a Vancouver-based think tank , ranked Hong Kong at No .
3 , well ahead of the U.S. at No .
17 .
The city ’ s leader , Chief Executive Carrie Lam , has defended the national security law ( as has Li Ka-shing , Hong Kong ’ s richest tycoon ) .
Lam also has said it would be “ totally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Hong Kong ’ s internal affairs , and that sanctions would only complicate the problems in the city .
( Lam was selected in 2017 by a committee of 1,200 political insiders overwhelmingly loyal to the Chinese government . )
She has sought to reassure investors that the city still adheres to the rule of law and has an independent judiciary .
She also has defended police actions .
As a largely leaderless movement , the Hong Kong protests have made no official request for international assistance .
But some prominent activists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Trump to hit China hard with sanctions , even to the point of revoking the city ’ s special trading status .
Wong had testified last year in Washington in favor of the bill , seeking to put pressure on China .
On the streets of Hong Kong , some protesters have made clear their interest in U.S. support by waving American flags , singing “ The Star-Spangled Banner ” and calling on Trump to “ liberate ” Hong Kong .


washingtonpost--2020-05-28--Analysis | Where Are We in Quest for Coronavirus Drugs and Vaccines?

In late April , researchers announced that remdesivir , an experimental antiviral drug that Gilead Sciences Inc. originally made as a treatment for Ebola , helped patients recover from Covid-19 more quickly than standard care .
Days later , it was cleared by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for emergency use in Covid-19 patients .
The authorization was limited to hospitalized Covid-19 patients with low blood-oxygen levels or who need breathing support .
Japanese and U.K. regulators have also given special authorization for use of the drug .
The FDA in March controversially issued an Emergency Use Authorization providing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hydroxychloroquine , to be distributed and prescribed by doctors to Covid-19 patients .
The move came after President Donald Trump repeatedly touted the drugs .
He later said he ’ d taken a course of hydroxychloroquine although he is not infected with coronavirus .
The FDA cautions against the use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine for Covid-19 outside of a hospital setting or a clinical trial due to the risk of heart problems .
Emergency authorizations are permitted during a crisis when a product ’ s “ known and potential benefits ” outweigh its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russian government in mid-April ordered the free distribution of hydroxychloroquine , which hadn ’ t been registered for use in the country previously , for treatment of coronavirus .
The FDA ’ s decision and Trump ’ s championing of the drugs have been criticized by scientists as premature .
In a small study in France , hydroxychloroquine showed promising results , but the trial ’ s methodology has been challenged .
Subsequent studies produced evidence that the drug , which has been linked to heart incidents , can do more harm than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefit was withdrawn by the authors .
An advisory body in France ruled in late May that it can no longer be prescribed to hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
Panic-buying of hydroxychloroquine has created shortages of the drug for patients with malaria and the autoimmune disease lupus , for whom it is a proven therapy .
Even if a treatment shows promise in laboratory , animal or early human experiments , rigorous testing is needed to prove that it ’ s both safe and effective .
That requires carefully structured and monitored tests known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ studies are designed to show that patients randomly assigned to get the drug do better than those in a “ control group ” who don ’ t , and that the results aren ’ t a product of chance .
The trials try to subtract all the other influences and factors that might disguise the true effectiveness of the drug .
For one thing , patients often recover from viral illness on their own , or improve because of supportive care such as rest and hydration .
And some really sick patients might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effective it is .
Treatments that don ’ t have approval from regulators should be viewed with extreme caution .
The FDA and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission have warned multiple companies to stop selling unproven treatments for coronavirus .
It depends .
Drugs that are already approved against one infection and shown to be safe can be tested for effectiveness against another in a matter of months .
Experimental drugs may take longer to test , as they have to go through initial studies to evaluate whether they are safe .
Other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the supply of drug candidates and the availability of patients to test them in .
The trials also have to be approved by ethics watchdogs and drug regulators .
According to a 2017 review , the median time for regulators to approve a new drug in 2015 was 333 days in the U.S. , 422 days in Europe , and 639 days in China .
China has since expedited its process .
When drugs are deemed to fill an immediate need , regulators can speed them through the approval process using a number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ programs have been launched to develop and test treatments .
These include everything from antiviral drugs and antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients , to traditional Chinese herbal medicine .
A number of studies are looking at whether drugs for rheumatoid arthritis , cancer and autoimmune disorders can halt dangerous inflammation , sometimes called “ cytokine storm , ” which can be lethal .
In a study in China published March 18 , AbbVie Inc. ’ s Kaletra , an HIV treatment combining two drugs , failed to improve the condition of coronavirus patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the flu medication favipiravir , or Avigan , made by Fujifilm Holdings Corp. produced more promising results .
About 100 experimental vaccines against the coronavirus are in some stage of development , according to the World Health Organization .
Moving at record speed , researchers began preliminary human testing of the first one in mid-March in the Seattle area .
It was developed by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in collaboration with the biotechnology company Moderna Inc .
Since then , a handful of additional human trials have begun @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biologics Inc. and the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology and from Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc .
Some of the world ’ s biggest companies are working on vaccine projects .
GlaxoSmithKline has teamed up with China-based Clover Biopharmaceuticals , while Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson are in separate collaborations with the U.S. government ’ s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority .
Widespread testing of experimental vaccines is important to reduce the possibility that they cause harm after being rolled out , as has been the case a number of times in the past .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ new vaccines are different from the persistent and incorrect belief that vaccines against childhood diseases carry significant risks .
Anthony Fauci , director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , has said there ’ s a “ good chance ” a vaccine could be available by the end of the year .
Richard Hatchett , the head of the Oslo-based Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations , which works to advance new vaccines , has said that time frame is reasonable for delivering doses to vulnerable groups such as health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc has set a particularly ambitious aim of producing initial doses as early as September .
Hitting those targets would be remarkable considering the process of bringing a conventional vaccine from inception to the finish line takes on average nearly 11 years .
In a project that could deliver a vaccine sooner , researchers in four countries will test a shot that ’ s already licensed to prevent tuberculosis to see if it will protect health workers against the coronavirus .
There ’ s no guarantee any of these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of experimental vaccines make it to licensure .
The ones aimed at Covid-19 that are moving most rapidly are made using new technologies that have never proven useful in humans .


washingtonpost--2020-05-28--Texas Infections Jump 3.2%, U.S. Cases Increase: Virus Update


washingtonpost--2020-05-28--India Death Toll Tops China; Brazil Cases Surge: Virus Update

Sao Paulo , the largest city in South America and home to Brazil ’ s financial hub , will allow shops and malls to resume activities as it begins to reopen businesses after about two months of loosely enforced quarantine orders , despite a record number of new Covid-19 cases reported Thursday in Brazil .
“ I don ’ t think there ’ s any amount of cuts or any amount of taxes that begins to fill the hole , ” Murphy , a retired Goldman Sachs Group Inc. senior director and Democrat who came to office in January 2018 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , state and local governments will have to dismiss firefighters , police , emergency-medical services and others .
The carrier also plans to detail a revamped officer team as the company shrinks “ for the foreseeable future , ” Elise Eberwein , executive vice president of people and global engagement , said in a letter to employees .
The airline said it hopes enough staff will volunteer to leave under a new program to avoid forced layoffs .
San Francisco , one of the first U.S. cities to close , is taking steps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remain in effect .
Starting June 15 , restrictions will be loosened on outdoor dining , indoor retail and certain outdoor activities like summer camps , Mayor London Breed said .
Professional sports can resume , but without spectators .
Coronavirus cases in the U.S. increased 1.2 % as compared to the same time Wednesday , to 1.71 million , according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News .
That ’ s in line with Wednesday ’ s rate and the average of 1.3 % over the past seven days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
New York had more than 366,000 cases and 23,600 fatalities as of May 27 , according to Governor Andrew Cuomo .
Hospitalizations are declining , and daily fatalities were below 100 for a fourth day , after peaking at more than 700 in April .
The Boston Marathon was canceled by the Boston Athletic Association , which in a tweet said a virtual event will be staged in September .
All participants who signed up for the April 20 race will be offered a refund and can participate in a virtual event @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race will run the marathon distance 26.2 miles and upload data to a fitness app .
Later in his briefing , Cuomo defended the new order , saying individuals “ don ’ t have a right to expose the store owner to the virus ” or the right “ to expose other patrons in the store to the virus .
”


washingtonpost--2020-05-28--Analysis | An Italian Bank Deal Still Makes Perfect Sense

While Italy ’ s biggest banks have capital cushions that should see them through the crisis without needing to tap investors , regulators say some smaller , less profitable lenders might not make it on their own .
Under these market conditions , one would think that consolidation in the Italian banking sector makes perfect sense .
But Unione di Banche Italiane SpA , a mid-sized commercial lender based in Bergamo — a hot spot of Italy ’ s virus outbreak — has ideas of its own .
UBI , as the bank is known , is so keen to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rival Intesa Sanpaolo SpA that it ’ s making an unusual claim : The coronavirus is a material adverse change and should invalidate the bid .
This attempted rejection of Intesa might make sense if UBI were trying to squeeze out a better price for its investors , but that doesn ’ t appear to be the case .
It just seems to want to pursue its own plans , a strategy shareholders might end up regretting .
Days before the stock markets peaked in February , Intesa made an all-stock offer for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fifth-largest bank at about a 25 % premium .
Intesa Chief Executive Officer Carlo Messina didn ’ t endear himself to his UBI counterparts : His hostile bid , a big no-no in banking , came hours after UBI ’ s CEO Victor Massiah had presented a new strategic plan .
Nonetheless , the rationale for a combination is as compelling now as it was before the coronavirus hit — if not more so .
Under UBI ’ s pre-pandemic strategy , the lender was trying to repair its measly profitability by improving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ banking and getting rid of more of its bad debt .
Massiah also sees UBI as a potential aggregator of smaller Italian banks .
An alternative deal with Banco BPM SpA has been mooted .
It ’ s unclear why Massiah ’ s approach is more appealing than a takeover by Intesa .
The suitor may have to dial back its lofty dividend expectations for the merged company as the pandemic wrecks the economy , but if it achieves two-thirds control of UBI , it should be able to deliver chunky cost cuts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tie-up between UBI and Banco BPM , by contrast , would leave little room for maneuver should credit losses spiral and the revenue outlook weaken , as expected .
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. predict that non-performing loans in Italy could surge by 162 billion euros ( $ 178 billion ) , under its worst-case scenario .
While UBI has slightly better credit quality than its peers , 23 % of its loan book is to SMEs , compared to Intesa ’ s 20 % .
The figure stands at 34 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ argument that Italy could do with a third strong lender to rival Intesa and UniCredit SpA , and that UBI could team up with somebody else to deliver that .
Italy ’ s antitrust authority is reviewing the deal .
But with the economic damage caused by Covid-19 , the Intesa-UBI deal has become more attractive .
UBI ’ s shareholders should at least have their say on whether they support the idea .


washingtonpost--2020-03-09--Analysis | Saudi Arabia and Russia Just Killed Optimism in Shale

In the financial markets , fewer will rush in to mop up all that blood on the floor .
Investors did that before and , like the actions of OPEC+ over the past three years , they effectively provided a put for the E & P sector ’ s high-spending habits .
This was exemplified , most obviously , in surging production growth and negative free cash flow .
More importantly , it was embedded in a mindset of optimism , backed up by c-suite incentives built on visions of sunlit uplands ahead rather than the troublesome present ( see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ valuations through the floor even before Saudi Arabia opened the taps , the equity and bond market put is gone .
Think of the damage this will inflict in terms of concentric circles .
At the center are those companies that had optimism woven into their financial fabric .
Occidental Petroleum Corp. is a prime example , having piled on debt and alienated shareholders to buy Anadarko Petroleum Corp. last year .
It needed oil prices to stay up for at least a year or two to fund its strategy ( which still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices on disposals .
Despite repeated commitment to the dividend , it looks untenable , which is why the yield is almost 12 % .
Pre-market prices on Monday morning imply Oxy ’ s market cap will drop to less than $ 15 billion — about $ 8 billion lower than where Anadarko traded before bidding got underway less than a year ago .
One way in which Oxy relied on the OPEC+ put to keep things humming was its hedging strategy .
The company took advantage of oil ’ s brief rally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in hedges on almost half its expected production for this year .
It looked like smart timing but came with a hope-tinged sting in the form of a three-way costless collar .
The “ costless ” in there is the tell , like that subtle shift in the movie soundtrack when our hero opens the door to the cellar .
In theory , by selling an out-of-the-money put on oil , the hedger ’ s premium reduces the cost of their calls and — cue the heavy bass notes — unless oil prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s all good .
Oxy wasn ’ t alone in this regard , of course ; the sector was conditioned to expect OPEC+ to do the decent thing .
In a report published last week , UBS analysts laid out a list of large E & P firms that will now be grabbing at their collars frantically : The impact doesn ’ t end there .
Exxon Mobil Corp. , usually a byword for stability , stuck to its guns on spending into oil-price weakness on Thursday — a day before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Corp. , having had the good fortune to take its licks a few years ago when hope still had currency , looks better positioned .
But even its $ 60 oil-price planning deck is now in tatters .
The employees , and the towns and counties , that rely on drilling will also suffer .
Direct oil-sector employment entered year-over-year decline already at the end of 2019 , and that will now accelerate sharply .
Similarly , the oilfield services sector , down already , will take another kick .
Ditto for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many companies had tried to out-do their E & P clients in terms of optimism , leverage and skewed incentives .
Radiating out further from ground zero in the shale patch , there are the financiers .
Energy ’ s weighting in the S & P 500 , having just slipped below that of utilities for the first time , may well drop lower than the real estate sector as soon as Monday .
Meanwhile , the energy high-yield bond market closed Friday at an average spread of almost 1,100 basis points above @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Monday , meaning the door to new E & P financing , closed pretty firmly already , is now being welded shut .
But like Vegas , what happens in energy high-yield doesn ’ t stay there , because earlier optimism allowed the sector to expand so much : Energy issuers constitute 14 % of the face value of the broader high-yield index .
You can ’ t detonate a part of the market that big and not expect a shock wave to hit the rest of it , especially with cross-currents from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same time , lending banks were already nervous about credit lines to E & P firms collateralized by the value of their oil and gas reserves .
Mike Lister , who runs corporate banking for energy clients at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. — one of the biggest reserves-based lenders on the street — said in an interview with World Oil published last week that banks wrote off more reserves-based shale loans last year than in any over the past three decades .
On that front , the thing to keep in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 60 a barrel in 2019 , a level the industry would kill for right now .
The E & P sector ’ s relationship with the capital markets was shaky already , both because of prior excesses and a growing sense of dread related to climate change .
That is precisely why some companies had embraced more shareholder-friendly measures such as governance reforms and bigger dividends .
This sharp reminder that energy prices aren ’ t guaranteed at any level kicks away the last prop .
Shale isn ’ t dead , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about to go bankrupt or try to rationalize or consolidate its way through the crisis , its peculiarly robust brand of hope is .
That is why , even if Moscow and Riyadh make up eventually , the effects will last .
The financial ecosystem underpinning the shale boom will remember .
Reluctant as I am to ever write these words , this time really is different .
( 1 ) On this , remember that Russia ’ s oil companies pay their costs largely in a currency that floats , the ruble @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Monday morning .
Moreover , Russia ’ s system of oil taxation means its producers don ’ t reap much from higher oil prices , as the state ’ s take rises alongside them .
As the Kremlin ponders its next step , one constituency whowon ’ t be screaming for it to step back is the executives at its oil producers.See my colleague Julian Lee ’ s take on the unlikelihood of a quick resolution here .


washingtonpost--2020-03-09--IMF Calls for ‘Large, Targeted Policies’ to Counter Virus

Governments and central banks last week stepped up emergency actions , with the Bank of Canada joining the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates by a half point .
More than $ 54 billion in budget support has already been pledged or is under consideration in the U.S. , Europe and Asia .
Broad-based fiscal stimulus can help boost aggregate demand but would be more effective once business operations begin to normalize , Gopinath said .
Families and businesses could benefit from cash transfers , wage subsidies and tax relief to help them meet their needs , she added .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ action , and not just targeted policies , but substantial targeted policies , ” Gopinath said in a Bloomberg Television later Monday .
“ In this particular case , you could think of fiscal policy as being in the driver ’ s seat , because that ’ s where you could do a lot more targeted policies.
” Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said last week that the global economic outlook has shifted to “ more dire scenarios ” as the virus has spread undetected and that it ’ s still difficult to predict @ @ @ @ @ @ @ available $ 50 billion to help countries deal with the virus , including $ 10 billion at zero interest for the poorest nations .
The IMF expects that global growth this year will be slower than 2019 , when growth was 2.9 % , Georgieva said last week , adding that the official forecast will be updated next month .
The IMF had previously seen 2020 growth accelerating to 3.3 % .
Gopinath said that Monday ’ s plunge in oil may be a net negative rather than a relief for the global @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outweighs any tailwind for countries that benefit from cheaper prices .
For the virus , global infections have surpassed 110,000 , resulting in more than 3,900 deaths since the virus originated in Wuhan , China .
“ It ’ s very important that policies respond quickly to prevent this turning into a permanent crisis , ” Gopinath said in the interview .
“ If all goes well and the necessary actions are taken , then 2021 would see a strong recovery , but we need to move fast now .
”


washingtonpost--2020-03-09--Analysis | Why Central Banks Down Under Could Deploy QE in 2020: QuickTake

The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand began to talk more soberly and thoughtfully about unconventional policy last year , amid China ’ s slowing economy and its trade fight with the U.S. That suggested Australia and New Zealand might need to find extra monetary stimulus , having cut rates to levels the Federal Reserve and Bank of England were at when they turned to asset purchases -- known as quantitative easing , or QE -- to support their economies following the financial crisis .
The RBA and RBNZ both acknowledged their limited rate firepower @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to an external shock .
With that in mind , RBA Governor Philip Lowe and his New Zealand counterpart Adrian Orr said it was prudent to discuss unconventional options .
At that stage , a shock in the form of a health crisis had hardly occurred to anyone .
Its program is likely to involve setting a numerical target for government bond yields .
The approach would differ from that used by the Federal Reserve , which announced the dollar amount of fixed-income assets it would buy each month and then observed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is looking at price first , and its program would more closely resemble Japan ’ s yield-curve control .
By way of example , the RBA might aim to ensure rates were around , say , 25 basis points for a specific maturity .
The bank would then adjust its purchases of government bonds depending on how the market responded .
The “ announcement effect ” might be enough to shift yields to the desired target , though chances are the RBA would need to back this up with some purchases .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its market credibility to help achieve its goal .
And it would be flexible .
If , for example , the bank aimed to keep yields out to four or five years around 25 basis points , it wouldn ’ t be worried if they happened to be at 26 or 27 ; but if they were at 50 , then that wouldn ’ t be consistent with the objective .
Lowe has made clear that negative rates are “ extraordinarily unlikely ” in Australia and there ’ s no appetite at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in a QE program .
In a Nov. 26 speech , he said the bank ’ s goal was “ lowering risk-free interest rates along the yield curve.
” This , he said , would also have a “ signaling effect ” that the RBA intended to keep rates low for an extended period .
The governor , in the address , set the bank ’ s lower bound for rates at 0.25 % -- and made clear there ’ s “ not a smooth continuum running ” from rate cuts to QE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ significant step .
But that was before the coronavirus outbreak .
In response , on March 3 the RBA reduced its cash rate to 0.5 % .
It is now only one cut away from having to deploy unconventional policy if it wants to provide additional stimulus .
The RBA has signaled it ’ s ready to cut further and money markets are pricing in a cut in April .
He has focused heavily on negative rates , suggesting that ’ s his non-standard policy of choice .
When Orr acknowledged the RBNZ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year , he said he didn ’ t see the issue as urgent .
Today there are real concerns the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak could tip New Zealand into recession .
Orr is due to unveil more details of his thinking in a speech at 2 p.m. in Wellington on March 10 .
Markets are pricing in at least two rate cuts from the RBNZ by May ( it makes its next decision on March 25 ) .
Some bank economists predict Orr will cut his official cash rate ( OCR ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
New Zealand ’ s Treasury Department estimates the OCR could go as low as minus 0.35 % in a crisis .
The RBNZ has said it would only go unconventional if , after exhausting standard policy , inflation was still far below its 2 % goal .
But like Australia , the shock necessary to trigger QE might already be coming into view .
While Lowe has said the bar for a move to QE would be different to a rate cut , that ’ s the only way he could go @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in April .
In other words , the RBA might be in a position to deploy unconventional policy as soon as May .
That said , Australia ’ s government is preparing a stimulus “ boost ” to support businesses struggling with cash flow and to help keep people in jobs .
It also has the annual budget in May , when it could announce additional support .
That may ease some immediate pressure on the RBA .
New Zealand ’ s government has also indicated it ’ s prepared to loosen fiscal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The broad consensus is yes , particularly in the initial stages when economies and markets were facing severe shocks .
Borrowing costs have been lowered and financial conditions eased in economies that went unconventional , though the impact diminishes the longer the measures remain .
The Fed ’ s forward guidance is generally viewed as having been effective in supporting the U.S. economy , while QE ’ s impact on interest rates , bank lending and company behavior suggest it largely helped stimulate activity .
And while there were fears that negative rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of banks and stuff it under their mattresses , this hasn ’ t come to pass .
The experience in Japan has been less convincing .
While prices are rising again , inflation remains a long way short of the central bank ’ s 2 % target and negative side effects , such as strains on regional lenders , are piling up .
But as the RBA has noted , much is still in progress and it ’ s tricky to draw firm conclusions .
It wouldn ’ t be economics if @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fallout is that , as central banks lap up bonds , any subsequent squeeze on yields might encourage a move toward riskier assets in search of higher returns .
Very cheap money can also lead to inflated valuations -- real estate is a classic example -- and set the stage for a sharp correction .
Critics have also warned that the more central banks become involved in multiple objectives and policy instruments , the more exposed they are to political interference .
A broader question is whether future policy will ever return to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than half of central bankers in a recent survey expecting QE to stay around .
The other key issue is bank profitability .
Margins are going to be compressed when the yield curve is lower and flattened .
Any RBA target for the yield on government bonds would do that -- and its implications for bank margins would be clear .
But , it ’ s worth noting , if unconventional policy leads to a stronger economy -- its basic aim -- then that ’ s good for bank profitability because it means @ @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-03-09--Analysis | New World Order Is Coming, Maybe in Helicopters

Easy monetary policy has delayed the denouement for more than a decade , but if there ’ s a clear message from the extraordinary market events of the last few weeks , it ’ s that the current financial order no longer suffices to maintain the stability we ’ ve grown accustomed to expect .
With no sense yet of what that new order might be , and a dearth of global leadership needed to summon it , it ’ s safe to assume markets and economies are in for a rough period .
The coronavirus crisis is just the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at this point , it ’ s best to trace the history .
After the war , the developed world agreed to the Bretton Woods accords , which tied all currencies to the dollar , which was in turn pegged to gold .
This loose version of the gold standard survived until 1971 , amid generally stable markets and low economic volatility .
It foundered in 1971 when Richard Nixon ended the gold peg , which he felt had become too great a burden for the U.S. For the next decade , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dollar , but to oil .
With the tie to gold gone , oil producers needed to hike prices to keep their buying power constant .
This they did .
In dollar terms , oil suffered two immense shocks during the 1970s , which plunged the world into stagflation .
But in gold terms , the oil price ended the decade more or less where it had started ; oil producers had protected themselves against the falling purchasing power of the dollar : This ‘ Oil Standard ’ era ended in the early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — and everyone else — had lost faith in the ability of central banks to control inflation .
Paul Volcker arrived at the Fed ( as the result of a virtual political accident when President Jimmy Carter moved Volcker ’ s predecessor to the Treasury Department ) , and set about raising rates more than anyone thought he would dare .
This provoked a recession , and eventually convinced everyone that central banks could control inflation after all .
That started a long secular bull market in bonds as yields started a gradual @ @ @ @ @ @ @ brought their new unapologetically free-market approach to economic management , the Soviet Union collapsed , and China embarked on economic reforms .
Volcker ’ s victory over inflation ushered in a quarter-century of triumph for a broadly laissez-faire model of globalization anchored by trusted central banks : That foundered in the financial crisis of 2007-09 .
The immediate fear in the wake of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy was that a balance sheet recession would come in its wake , bringing with it deflation .
This time , in other words , the fear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be able to prevent deflation , rather than the inflation that they had struggled to control a generation earlier .
Briefly , bond markets signaled that inflation in the U.S. would average less than 0 % over ten years .
That was the first time that inflation expectations had breached the Fed ’ s target to keep inflation between 1 % and 3 % , which has been in place for many years now .
The response was a massive program of quantitative easing asset purchases ( QE ) to keep longer bond @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virtually zero .
For a decade , this was enough to keep inflation within its range — but 10-year inflation expectations on Monday dropped below 1 % .
This time , central banks have little or no ammunition left .
Meanwhile , the ratio of oil to gold ( which can be seen as a measure of confidence in central banks to safeguard the currency ) has plunged after remaining remarkably stable through the market slings and arrows of the last half century .
So far this year , it has halved , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The volatility of the measure in the last few days , a product of the oil price war unleashed by Saudi Arabia , is exceptional : Now that there is no confidence that central banks can avert deflation , the central case for buying stocks has also eroded .
For the post-crisis decade , the U.S. has managed to stay distinct , thanks in part to the privilege of the world ’ s reserve currency , and in part to the superior success of its corporate sector .
It has done this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sunk into negative interest rates , and emerging markets have stagnated .
In both regions , stock markets have remained in a long-term bear market , stuck below the highs they set before the crisis ( or in Japan ’ s case , stuck below a high set on New Year ’ s Eve , 1989 ) .
In the U.S. , investors were guided by a different logic : TINA ( for There Is No Alternative ) .
They held to the theory that low bond yields left no alternative but to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to their own history , and their profits were stagnant , but low bond yields still justified buying them .
The market has now abandoned that argument as well , finally accepting that bond yields this low only make sense if a drawn-out deflationary recession lies ahead , which would be terrible for stocks .
TINA is vanquished : Stocks ’ dividend yield is now much higher than the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond .
But now , this is taken as a negative sign , and the stock market has continued @ @ @ @ @ @ @ telling contrast with the last time stocks were this cheap relative to bonds , in March 2009 — the beginning of the great rally in the stock market .
This time , the twin shocks of the epidemic and the oil price have shredded confidence .
If a decade of desperate easy monetary policy by central banks was enough to avert the need to hammer together some new global financial order , markets are now indicating that this moment can no longer be delayed .
With confidence lost in central banks , that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the kind of fiscal expansion that has been out of vogue since the 1970s , possibly even including helicopter money .
Extremely low bond yields signal to governments that we will be able to finance such spending very cheaply .
Ideally , any new order would involve new international agreements to avoid the damaging effects of the trade , oil and currency conflicts of the last few years .
And needless to say , the political environment doesn ’ t look conducive to finding agreement on anything so ambitious .
The world will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bretton Woods in time , but it will take volatility , trial and error .
At some point , some latter day Paul Volcker will emerge and guide us to a new model that will work .
For the time being , it would be wise to brace for economic and market disruption to match what was experienced at the end of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s .


washingtonpost--2020-05-27--Analysis | What Hong Kong Losing Its ‘Special Status’ Would Mean

Maybe .
The president has long had the power to suspend it with an executive order , yet hasn ’ t .
But there ’ s added pressure now : a U.S. law passed last year requires the secretary of state to certify -- as part of an annual report to Congress -- whether Hong Kong remains “ sufficiently autonomous ” from Beijing to justify its unique treatment .
That includes assessing the degree to which Hong Kong ’ s autonomy had been eroded by the government of China .
( Hong Kong is part of China but has a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ holdover from its time as a British colony . )
The law also provides for sanctions against officials deemed responsible for human rights abuses or undermining the city ’ s autonomy .
Such sanctions were also said to be under consideration at the White House in the wake of the Chinese government ’ s decision in May to impose new national security laws on the city .
An estimated $ 38 billion in trade between Hong Kong and the U.S. could be jeopardized .
“ Longer term , people might have a second @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Hong Kong , ” said Kevin Lai , chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets .
It would be “ the nuclear option ” and “ the beginning of the death of Hong Kong as we know it , ” said Steve Tsang , director of the University of London ’ s SOAS China Institute .
It has its own reasons for not rocking the boat too much .
Hong Kong , the only semi-democratic jurisdiction under Chinese rule , offers U.S. companies a relatively safe way to access @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dollar peg , linking it with the American financial system .
According to the Congressional Research Service , the largest U.S. trade surplus in 2018 was with Hong Kong — $ 31.1 billion .
Some 290 U.S. companies had regional headquarters in the city that year and another 434 had regional offices , it said .
Hong Kong ’ s first justice minister after the handover to China in 1997 , Elsie Leung , told the South China Morning Post in May that any damage would be mutual : “ We are not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s a free-trade arrangement which is good for both sides.
” Any sanctions or move to rescind the special status would further strain the relationship between the U.S. and China , already under pressure from the coronavirus pandemic , the Hong Kong protests , an ongoing trade war and other issues .
In addition to the annual review of Hong Kong ’ s trading status , the new law requires the president to freeze U.S.-based assets of , and deny entry to the U.S. by , any individuals found responsible for abducting and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Such sanctions could come sooner than a suspension of the trading status , and would obviously complicate things further .
When Britain handed Hong Kong back to China , the Chinese government pledged that the city would have a “ high degree of autonomy ” in its legal and economic affairs for 50 years , under an arrangement known as “ one country , two systems.
” The 2019 U.S. report on conditions in Hong Kong said the city ’ s autonomy was “ sufficient -- although diminished.
” After the protests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Department said that “ continued erosion ” of Hong Kong ’ s autonomy put its “ long-established status in international affairs ” at risk .
“ Hong Kong is purely China ’ s internal affair , ” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said in Beijing on May 27 , promising to take “ necessary countermeasures ” against any “ interference ” by “ external forces.
” After the U.S. law was passed last year , China said it would sanction some U.S.-based activist groups including the National Endowment for Democracy , Human Rights @ @ @ @ @ @ @ port visits by U.S. Navy ships to Hong Kong .
“ China urges the U.S. side to correct its mistakes and stop any words and deeds that interfere in Hong Kong affairs and China ’ s internal politics , ” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said then .
The official Xinhua News Agency has dismissed as “ groundless ” accusations about the loss of freedom or human rights issues in Hong Kong .
It also noted that the 2018 Human Freedom Index compiled by the Fraser Institute , a Vancouver-based think tank , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , well ahead of the U.S. at No .
17 .
The city ’ s leader , Chief Executive Carrie Lam , has said it would be “ totally unacceptable ” for foreign legislatures to interfere in Hong Kong ’ s internal affairs , and that sanctions would only complicate the problems in the city .
( Lam was selected in 2017 by a committee of 1,200 political insiders overwhelmingly loyal to the Chinese government . )
She has sought to reassure investors that the city still adheres to the rule of law @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also has defended police actions .
As a largely leaderless movement , the Hong Kong protests have made no official request for international assistance .
But some prominent Hong Kong pro-democracy activists including Joshua Wong had testified in Washington in favor of the bill , seeking to put pressure on China .
On the streets of Hong Kong , some protesters have made clear their interest in U.S. support by waving American flags , singing “ The Star-Spangled Banner ” and calling on Trump to “ liberate ” Hong Kong .


washingtonpost--2020-05-27--Are the Coronavirus Bailouts Working? What We Know So Far

The actions of both the Fed and Treasury should be measured by their speed and impact , as Mnuchin noted .
While the pace of their actions has been relatively easy to track , their impact has been more difficult to gauge , in part because it ’ s still early but also because so much of the response remains murky .
Powell and Mnuchin have offered only broad outlines of the bailout so far .
Powell promised the Senate he will provide greater detail about the Fed ’ s actions later on .
Mnuchin told senators that the Treasury @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , drawing some skepticism from Senator Jon Tester , a Democrat , who complained about a lack of disclosure from the agency .
Mnuchin insisted that details could be found online , but Treasury ’ s own website only offers general information about the bailout and doesn ’ t disclose who or what is getting funding .
More than half of CARES Act funding , about $ 1.57 trillion of $ 2.7 trillion , has been pledged to small and large businesses .
Corporate tax cuts worth $ 241 billion took effect immediately @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aid to big businesses , local governments and the U.S .
Postal Service has been more of a mystery .
The Postal Service is supposed to get $ 10 billion , but the White House has withheld the money in a political tug of war .
The other $ 500 billion hasn ’ t been disbursed .
Mnuchin has direct control of $ 46 billion ; the remaining $ 454 billion is under Powell ’ s control and is intended to prop up a designated set of Fed lending programs .
Most of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Mnuchin controls is meant for airlines .
Treasury hasn ’ t fully disclosed the terms of that aid , though several major airlines that have applied for support have said the loans carry provisions that could grant the government equity stakes in their operations .
This aid is to be a combination of low-interest loans and $ 25 billion in payroll support for furloughed workers .
Although none of the loans have been disbursed , at least $ 19.2 billion for airline workers has .
In the Senate hearing , Senator Elizabeth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ensure that airlines spend the money on workers .
Mnuchin replied that companies would have to make “ their best efforts ” but didn ’ t say how he would go about making sure they did .
Ignoring such details , intentionally or not , has scarred the other big bailout push : support for small businesses .
Since March , $ 729 billion has been earmarked for entrepreneurs .
But the Treasury Department and the Small Business Administration fumbled the rollout of the first $ 349 billion of that pile , leaving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ channeling a significant share of the money into the coffers of relatively large and well-heeled companies .
The second round of funding appears to have reached more authentically small businesses in a more diverse range of states and communities .
But Mnuchin has provided no details on exactly which companies have received money , so the program remains hard to assess .
Mnuchin also said Treasury has sent about $ 150 billion to state , local and tribal governments .
That ’ s a reasonable start , but it won ’ t be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus .
Pelosi estimates that local governments may need as much as $ 1 trillion to navigate the crisis — a figure several Democratic governors have also said they ’ ll need to avoid mass layoffs of public workers and cutbacks in essential services .
Some congressional Republicans and the White House have looked askance at those numbers .
McConnell has said it may be best to let state and local governments go bankrupt — a risky and ill-informed approach he somehow failed to mention when he approved sending hundreds of billions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ monetary side , Powell has been quick and bold .
He ’ s had little choice .
Coronavirus lockdowns crushed demand for nonessential goods and services , causing massive layoffs and threatening to undermine huge swaths of the economy .
Two months ago , parts of the financial system were also on the brink of collapse .
Many Wall Street veterans who experienced the grueling 1987 and 2008 market breakdowns say the upheaval in mid-March was worse .
The primary culprit was an old-fashioned run on the credit system : Investors scrambled to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they found few buyers .
The mismatch caused markets to seize , making it difficult for investors to transact and for companies and municipalities to fund payrolls , pay vendors and maintain services .
Credit spreads , or the difference in yield between Treasuries and bonds of less reputable borrowers , widened at the fastest pace on record .
Of course , this crisis isn ’ t just a financial one .
Powell knows that the fortifications he ’ s built will crumble if the business community and state and local governments continue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t make or raise money .
So he ’ s taken the Fed into new territory by positioning it to lend directly to companies and municipal governments .
Based on Powell ’ s testimony and available data , it appears he has done little with this power so far .
The Fed is a financial behemoth , and a display of good faith — absent an actual show of force — is sometimes enough to steady markets even in chaotic times .
Powell may be wagering that gestures are enough for now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seismic event , and it may well test the Fed ’ s ability to not only aid markets but also rescue corporations and municipalities .
In these early stages , Powell has enjoyed some advantages that Mnuchin hasn ’ t had .
The digital and financial levers he pulls to steady markets — such as adjusting interest rates and buying debt — are more direct and speedy than the loans , guarantees and other tools Mnuchin has at his disposal .
Powell is also able to act with more autonomy and has committed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take to right the economy .
Mnuchin , the White House and Congress have often been caught up in disagreements — some that need to be hashed out , some that don ’ t — about the scope of the stimulus .
Nevertheless , Powell ’ s promises may not be easy to keep if the virus menaces communities and the economy longer than policy makers expect .
If things get melty again , the scale of the stimulus required to keep the economy on life support will probably be much larger than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In theory , Powell can keep printing money .
But the Fed ’ s balance sheet has already grown to roughly $ 7 trillion , from $ 4 trillion at the beginning of the year , an unprecedented swelling .
( Before 2008 , the Fed ’ s liabilities had never risen above $ 1 trillion . )
We arrived at our estimate that the bailout thus far represents a $ 5.7 trillion commitment by combining the growth in the Fed ’ s balance sheet ( $ 3 trillion ) with the amount @ @ @ @ @ @ @ programs ( $ 2.7 trillion ) .
Getting into the lending business will plunge Powell into a morass that his predecessors were eager to avoid .
He or his lieutenants will inevitably have to choose who receives a bailout and who doesn ’ t , a process of picking winners and losers that was wildly unpopular during the 2008 bailouts .
Also , some of the money for Powell ’ s credit facilities is appropriated by Congress through the CARES Act , and that blurs the line between the passions of partisan politics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the Fed has always tried to embrace .


washingtonpost--2020-05-27--House Republicans Go to Court to Try to Stop Proxy Voting

The Republicans argued in a 38-page complaint filed in Washington federal court on Tuesday that the approval of the May 15 resolution , which would permit a single lawmaker to cast votes on behalf of as many as 10 colleagues , defied historical precedent and the U.S. Constitution .
“ In an instant , and over the objections of 189 members of the House from both political parties , the 231-year constitutional tradition of in-person assembly , deliberation , and voting among the people ’ s representatives came to an end , ” according to the complaint .
Democrats , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Massachusetts , cited opinions from constitutional law experts in support of the change .
At least 50 Democrats have filed with the clerk ’ s office saying they plan to use the system this week .
The GOP likely faces an uphill climb in a lawsuit because the Constitution lets the House set its own rules .
Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is the lead plaintiff along with several other representatives and four constituents in the suit against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other House officials .
McCarthy said in a statement on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allows Congress to write its own rules , those rules can not violate the Constitution itself -- - namely , the requirement of actual assembly .
Rapid and robust legal relief is necessary.
” “ This is a serious matter that will damage the integrity of the House ’ s actions now and in the future , ” he added .
The 45-day rules change that allows members to travel to the Capitol to carry out explicit instructions to vote on behalf of colleagues is in place through at least early June .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ renewed during this congressional term if the public health emergency persists or there is a resurgence .
Pelosi called the Republican suit a “ sad stunt ” that “ shows that their only focus is to delay and obstruct urgently-needed action to meet the needs of American workers and families during the coronavirus crisis.
” The California Democrat said the rule change is “ fully consistent with the Constitution.
” For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com


washingtonpost--2020-05-27--Analysis | Can China’s Spenders Lift the World?

In the last major financial crisis , big-spending Americans were hit hard , but the Chinese found new ways to open their wallets and took the rest of the global economy along for the ride .
China accounted for 31 % of growth in household consumption between 2010 and 2017 , World Bank data show , bringing its share now to about 10 % .
That includes around 30 % of spending on cars , luxury retail and mobile phones , and hundreds of billions of dollars on travel and tourism.Chinese consumers are the “ single most important thing in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ Neill , a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief economist , told the Financial Times last year .
They could be key to the next 40 years of growth , and it ’ s unlikely that any other country could replace them .
Will they be able to spend away the global economy ’ s gloom this time ?
They ’ ll have their own worries to deal with first.In the quarter to March , disposable household income shrank sharply for the first time since at least 2013 , putting strain on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ credit and financial assets take up a bigger part .
Consumer credit – from cards to peer-to-peer loans and other lending – has proliferated in recent years .
A central bank survey showed that around 60 % of household assets are parked in real estate ; some 97 % of liabilities are tied up in bank loans , with mortgages almost 70 % of the total .
As borrowings and incomes diverge , stresses on individuals and families rise .
All told , households owe 63 trillion yuan ( $ 8 trillion ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ product , according to CLSA Ltd. analysts .
Leverage is more than 130 % of last year ’ s earnings .
Adjusted on a GDP per capita basis , that puts China among the highest in relation to major countries .
The debt service ratio is climbing much faster compared to the U.S. , Australia and Japan .
Spending patterns are changing due to lockdowns , less money and changes in consumer psychology brought by the coronavirus .
Online shopping has increased , of course .
The gross merchandise value of essentials and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A UBS Evidence Lab survey in April showed that while people were returning to work , 54 % of respondents said their incomes had declined , and 60 % had reduced offline spending .
Fewer than half expected a pay raise soon and just over a quarter planned to reduce their debts .
Property purchases were being put on hold .
That austerity is probably a good thing .
Early signs already point to trouble .
Credit card delinquencies are rising .
Consumption loan asset-backed securities are even weaker , with overdue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ January to over 9 % in March .
That indicates a deteriorating quality of household balance sheets between prime and weaker borrowers .
Non-performing consumer credit is expected to double this year .
Middle-class borrowers have been China ’ s big spenders , but much of the incremental growth was going to come from aspiring buyers trying to enter higher socio-economic strata .
Now , they won ’ t quite make it .
If they ’ re hurting , who will spend ?
Goldman analysts point out that in China , not only @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lower-income urban households greater than for higher earners .
It also varies widely with migrant workers spending less than those in cities , even at similar levels of income .
Since China modernized its economy in recent decades , the new generations of consumers have arguably never faced a lesson in crisis management .
The shock for them may be greater in some ways than what American households endured circa 2008 .
So far , delinquencies in the U.S. have held steady .
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and fell for credit cards .
While there is no doubt that U.S. consumer spending will suffer as income insecurity and joblessness rise , a social safety net is in place .
China ’ s remains underdeveloped and an unemployment problem is brewing .
How Chinese deal with these pressures will matter .
Sure , it ’ s comforting that a large portion of wealth is stashed in hard real estate assets .
But a change in property values or prices doesn ’ t really impact consumption of durable goods .
What happens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spending that the economy needs to revive won ’ t materialize for countless businesses , incomes will continue to decline , and the vicious circle continues .
Beijing ’ s stimulus for individuals needs to be more robust .
Whatever a new normal looks like , the individual Chinese spender may no longer be as reliable a part of it .
Those looking for a consumption boost may want to turn elsewhere .


washingtonpost--2020-05-26--GOP Plans Court Challenge to House Move to Allow Proxy Voting

During House debate on the rule change , which would enable a single lawmaker to cast votes on behalf of as many as 10 colleagues , Republicans had denounced the move as unconstitutional .
Democrats , led by Rules Committee Chairman Jim McGovern of Massachusetts , cited opinions from constitutional law experts in support of the change .
At least 50 Democrats have filed with the clerk ’ s office saying they plan to use the system this week .
The GOP likely faces an uphill climb in a lawsuit because the Constitution lets the House set its own rules @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Leader Kevin McCarthy will be the lead plaintiff along with other House members and four constituents in the suit against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other House officials .
McCarthy said in a statement on Tuesday evening that “ while the Constitution allows Congress to write its own rules , those rules can not violate the Constitution itself -- - namely , the requirement of actual assembly .
Rapid and robust legal relief is necessary.
” “ This is a serious matter that will damage the integrity of the House ’ s actions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he added .
The 45-day rules change that allows members to travel to the Capitol to carry out explicit instructions to vote on behalf of colleagues is in place through at least early June .
The special procedures can be extended or renewed during this congressional term if the public health emergency persists or there is a resurgence .
Pelosi called the Republican suit a “ sad stunt ” that “ shows that their only focus is to delay and obstruct urgently-needed action to meet the needs of American workers and families during @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said the rule change is “ fully consistent with the Constitution.
” For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com


washingtonpost--2020-05-27--Analysis | There’s Far Less Bang in a Huawei Ban Now

Earlier this month , the U.S. imposed more stringent guidelines on Huawei , restricting any firm that uses American equipment from selling to the Chinese technology company without its approval .
That means Huawei won ’ t be able to get chips from companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. because they ’ re likely made using machines from firms such as California-based Applied Materials Inc .
So Huawei may effectively find itself cut off from access to the high-tech silicon it needs for its networking gear .
This provides a convenient excuse for Prime Minister Boris Johnson ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with regards to Huawei , which provoked U.S. ire in the midst of efforts to strike a new Anglo-American trade pact and a rebellion from a group of Conservative lawmakers .
Initially , in a break with the U.S. , the U.K. had decided to retain some access to Huawei ’ s products for its carriers ’ rollout of fiber-optic and fifth-generation mobile networks .
It proposed capping the Chinese company ’ s share to 35 % of non-sensitive parts of a mobile network in order to keep operators from being reliant on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Nokia Oyj .
Now ministers are drawing up proposals to reduce that share to zero .
The irony is that , given the recent U.S. measures , Huawei may find it very difficult to keep competing for orders .
The company probably won ’ t be able to buy many of the chip sets it needs to make things such as wireless base stations .
The quality of those products will suffer as it ’ s forced to seek out new suppliers , likely in China itself , where semiconductor technology is still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rethink who supplies their 5G equipment even before any national ban kicks in , according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Anthea Lai .
Even though a ban on new Huawei gear might now be easier , the question of how to handle the existing networks is not .
Huawei ’ s equipment currently accounts for two-thirds of BT Group Plc ’ s mobile network , and one-third of Vodafone Group Plc ’ s U.K. mobile network , according to UBS Group AG analyst Polo Tang .
BT has already said that swapping the kit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( $ 615 million ) over the next five years .
Reducing it to zero could double that expense , Tang said .
The U.K. ’ s previous 35 % limit applied to an operator ’ s overall network , but forcing operators to replace any already installed Huawei gear would strain capital requirements and jeopardize ambitious goals for new network build-out — Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he wants the whole country to have access to gigabit internet speeds by 2025 .
It seems that the government is taking that into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the new proposals would only prohibit the purchase and installation of new equipment from 2023 .
Which serves to underline how opportunistic the new review looks .
The main argument for letting carriers continue to use Huawei was to ensure that network investment continued apace .
Now that the U.S. crackdown looks likely to reduce the quality and availability of Huawei products , it ’ s a chance for the government to assuage both rebellious lawmakers and critics across the Atlantic .
And with global antipathy toward China rising over its handling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hong Kong , there ’ s now little point in further testing the straining U.S. alliance .


washingtonpost--2020-05-27--Fed’s Next Front, U.S. Salary Cuts, EU Stimulus Package: Eco Day

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washingtonpost--2020-05-27--Analysis | A Tech Billionaire May Find Use in a Cold War

A splashy overseas foray will be an unusual step for a family that brought the retail equity culture to India .
Dhirubhai Ambani , Mukesh ’ s late father who founded the empire , booked a football stadium in Mumbai in 1985 to hold a shareholders ’ meeting for the polyester textile maker that he had floated eight years earlier .
But then , Mukesh Ambani is already moving old furniture around as he pivots flagship Reliance Industries Ltd. away from an oversupplied energy and chemicals market .
At the same time , he ’ s beefing up the balance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion debt-fueled expansion .
A big chunk of that was for Jio , the wireless carrier that has become India ’ s largest in less than four years .
A $ 7 billion rights issue , Reliance ’ s first in three decades , buttressed by more than $ 10 billion raised in a month from the sale of shares in unlisted Jio Platforms may help cut the company ’ s $ 20 billion of net debt to zero before Ambani ’ s March 2021 target .
A U.S. IPO should give Jio @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Inc. , KKR & Co. , Silver Lake Partners and General Atlantic , a better valuation in a capital market that ’ s deeper than Mumbai ’ s .
Will Wall Street be so hospitable as to give Ambani , say , a $ 100 billion valuation ?
( Alibaba , a more mature business , was valued at $ 168 billion six years ago . )
Jio Platforms , which is centered on the the 4G mobile network , is the cornerstone of Reliance ’ s emerging triple play on carriage , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million customers under his belt , Ambani needs to prove he can garner at least $ 3 from each of them every month .
Modest as that sounds , it isn ’ t an easy task when per-user revenue is at present only a little over half as much .
The coronavirus lockdown has ravaged India ’ s economy , setting its growth prospects back perhaps by several years .
Mass market consumers , who comprise Jio ’ s user base , have been badly hurt .
That ’ s where a tech @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investors have been able to profit from the explosion of e-commerce in China , even though the likes of Facebook and Amazon.com Inc. are largely shut out of the People ’ s Republic .
If that access gets curbed by geopolitics , then Ambani ’ s story becomes more compelling .
He can offer the vision of a vast retail network that has Facebook ’ s popular WhatsApp messaging system processing orders and payments for neighborhood shops connected digitally to a billion-plus buyers .
That could be a big draw .
A U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , especially if Chinese firms are forced to vacate .
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners .
Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services .
He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews .
He has also worked for the Straits Times , ET NOW and Bloomberg News .


washingtonpost--2020-04-10--Trump Rebuffs Democrats’ Bid for More Funds in Stimulus Bill

Trump said in that measure he ’ ll be seeking spending for infrastructure and a payroll tax moratorium -- both of which face some opposition among Democrats or Republicans in Congress .
Pressure will be on Congress to approve more stimulus at a time when more than 16 million Americans have lost their jobs over the past three weeks as the country shuts down .
The political fallout could be severe if voters place the blame on either party for stalling aid .
There still is a question about how quickly Congress could act , with most lawmakers out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unanimous support in both the House and Senate .
A single objection could derail the process .
There had been no immediate negotiations among Schumer , McConnell , Pelosi and other top leaders after Democrats on Thursday rejected McConnell ’ s bid to pass a $ 250 billion supplement to the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses .
Mnuchin had requested approval of the funds by week ’ s end .
Pelosi , in talking with Mnuchin Friday , repeated her stance that a new aid package needs to help small businesses in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loans , and that it must include new funds for hospitals and state and local governments , said her spokesman Drew Hammill .
If leaders find a path forward , Monday may be the next chance to quickly approve more aid in the Senate without objection .
Lawmakers aren ’ t scheduled to return to Washington until the week of April 20 .
It ’ s not clear that congressional leaders will keep to that date if most of the country remains shut down .
In Thursday ’ s Senate debate , McConnell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ small-business program is the only part of last month ’ s massive $ 2.2 trillion coronavirus rescue plan at immediate risk of a shortfall .
He accused Democrats of trying to add other categories of funding that could be addressed later in a larger package .
Democratic Senator Ben Cardin of Maryland , a co-sponsor of the small business Paycheck Protection Program , objected to the majority leader ’ s proposal .
The program hasn ’ t run out of money but others have , Cardin said , adding the small business loan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Friday morning , about 587,000 applications had been processed totaling more than $ 151 billion from more than 4,100 lending institutions , according to the Small Business Administration .
That amount hasn ’ t been given to businesses yet , but rather is the value of loans registered for lenders to complete the process and disburse funds .
The proposal by Pelosi and Schumer also would bolster food assistance and ensure that small businesses are able to borrow from community-based and other financial institutions that serve companies owned by farmers , families , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want a broad pool of lenders to work with small businesses to prevent some companies from being left behind , she said .
To accomplish that , her party wants to ensure that half of the new PPP funds can ’ t be used for loans made by big banks .
“ There is a disparity in access to capital in our country , ” Pelosi told reporters .
“ We do not want this tragedy of the coronavirus to exacerbate that disparity or to solidify it.
” “ Secretary Mnuchin called and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hours with no data , ” said Pelosi , adding that Democrats want to “ figure out what the numbers are and where they are needed most urgently .
”