washingtonpost--2020-04-11--Analysis | This Pandemic Will Lead to Social Revolutions

The immediate effect of Covid-19 is to dampen most forms of unrest , as both democratic and authoritarian governments force their populations into lockdowns , which keep people from taking to the streets or gathering in groups .
But behind the doors of quarantined households , in the lengthening lines of soup kitchens , in prisons and slums and refugee camps — wherever people were hungry , sick and worried even before the outbreak — tragedy and trauma are building up .
One way or another , these pressures will erupt .
The coronavirus has thus put a magnifying glass @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In the U.S. , there ’ s been a move by some of the very wealthy to “ self-isolate ” on their Hamptons estates or swanky yachts — one Hollywood mogul swiftly deleted an Instagram picture of his $ 590 million boat after a public outcry .
Even the merely well-heeled can feel pretty safe working from home via Zoom and Slack .
But countless other Americans don ’ t have that option .
Indeed , the less money you make , the less likely you are to be able to work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Lacking savings and health insurance , these workers in precarious employment have to keep their gigs or blue-collar jobs , if they ’ re lucky enough still to have any , just to make ends meet .
As they do , they risk getting infected and bringing the virus home to their families , which , like poor people everywhere , are already more likely to be sick and less able to navigate complex health-care mazes .
And so the coronavirus is coursing fastest through neighborhoods that are cramped , stressful and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kills black people .
Even in countries without long histories of racial segregation , the virus prefers some zip codes over others .
That ’ s because everything conspires to make each neighborhood its own sociological and epidemiological petri dish — from average incomes and education to apartment size and population density , from nutritional habits to patterns of domestic abuse .
In the euro zone , for example , high-income households have on average almost double the living space as those in the bottom decile : 72 square meters ( 775 square @ @ @ @ @ @ @ differences between nations are even bigger .
To those living in a shantytown in India or South Africa , there ’ s no such thing as “ social distancing , ” because the whole family sleeps in one room .
There ’ s no discussion about whether to wear masks because there aren ’ t any .
More hand-washing is good advice , unless there ’ s no running water .
And so it goes , wherever SARS-CoV-2 shows up .
The International Labor Organization has warned that it will destroy 195 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ income of another 1.25 billion people .
Most of them were already poor .
As their suffering worsens , so do other scourges , from alcoholism and drug addiction to domestic violence and child abuse , leaving whole populations traumatized , perhaps permanently .
In this context , it would be naive to think that , once this medical emergency is over , either individual countries or the world can carry on as before .
Anger and bitterness will find new outlets .
Early harbingers include millions of Brazilians banging pots and pans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government , or Lebanese prisoners rioting in their overcrowded jails .
In time , these passions could become new populist or radical movements , intent on sweeping aside whatever ancien regime they define as the enemy .
The great pandemic of 2020 is therefore an ultimatum to those of us who reject populism .
It demands that we think harder and more boldly , but still pragmatically , about the underlying problems we confront , including inequality .
It ’ s a wake-up call to all who hope not just to survive the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world worth living in .


washingtonpost--2020-04-08--Analysis | How Do You Lift a Covid-19 Lockdown? Ask Austria

The tunnel is a long one , though .
The coronavirus outbreak hasn ’ t spread uniformly , and , in Europe , country-by-country lockdowns have been applied in haphazard ways .
For now , only a handful of states are outlining plans to lift restrictions within days .
The most confident public signals aren ’ t coming from countries with the most heavy-handed measures , such as Italy or Spain , or those taking a more lax stance , like Sweden ( which is belatedly getting tougher ) .
They ’ re coming from Austria and Denmark , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and saw their infection rates come under control .
Data compiled by Oxford University ’ s Blavatnik School of Government shows these two countries introduced lockdowns when they had fewer than 1,000 cases and almost no deaths .
When France and Spain began theirs , their case count was closer to 10,000 and their death tolls in the hundreds .
If there ’ s a lesson to heed from the likes of Austria and Denmark — which were themselves following in China , Italy and Israel ’ s footsteps — it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ America ’ s Ethan Harris put it last week , the least expensive shutdown for one ’ s economy is a “ quick , air-tight ” one , rather than one that ’ s slow and indecisive .
And second , ending such a shutdown should be done very , very carefully .
This speaks to the underlying fear that stalks life after lockdown : A potential flare-up in infections and deaths as the virus becomes free to mingle once again , overloading critical-care facilities .
It would be a nightmare if a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them again a few days or weeks later .
How long would Europeans ’ support for being confined to their homes last if lockdowns ran through spring and summer , making partial unemployment potentially something more permanent ?
Enforcing a shutdown would be doubly hard the second time around .
A phased recovery is calculated to avoid the possibility of that happening .
Yet it also suggests that hopes for a sharp bounce-back in the economy — the longed-for “ V-shaped ” recovery — are looking distant .
More movement , more spending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ private consumption in Austria , which according to Raiffeisen Bank International analyst Gunter Deuber accounts for just over 50 % of GDP .
But how much pent-up demand will be unleashed in a country of masked consumers , respecting social-distancing measures and grappling with the highest unemployment rate since World War II ?
Google location data for Austria points to a drop-off in shopping trips and recreation of around 87 % from the pre-virus baseline , and 64 % fewer trips to the grocery store and pharmacy .
That ’ s not all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Research by RBC Capital Markets found that in China , where restrictions first began to be eased last month , there had been no return to “ normalcy ” on a countrywide basis .
And if no man is an island , so it goes for Austria , a small land-locked European Union country deeply integrated into the bloc ’ s single market .
Some 70 % of Austria ’ s foreign trade is with other EU members .
There won ’ t be much victory in leap-frogging one ’ s closest partners @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; Austria ’ s border closures and travel bans will probably be the last measures lifted .
That suggests energy still needs to be expended in backing more cooperation and resource pooling to fend off the coronavirus at the European level .
So while the overall direction is positive , it could be months before post-lockdown life looks anything like normality for Austria or its neighbors .
A vaccine is likely a year away , and Europe hasn ’ t ramped up its testing capacity enough to start sending people back to work @ @ @ @ @

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washingtonpost--2020-03-16--Egypt Delivers Record Rate Cut to Tackle Fallout of Outbreak

“ It ’ s a very bold and unexpected decision , ” said Radwa El-Swaify , head of research at Cairo-based Pharos Holding .
“ A foreign exit from fixed-income portfolios in emerging markets will happen anyway , regardless of the rates .
That is why it was critical to cut rates in support of the local economy , irrespective of foreign portfolio investments or the carry trade.
” Egypt , which has offered investors the world ’ s second-most profitable carry trade this year , is joining a parade of rate cuts around the world as countries look to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus .
With emerging markets swept up in an unprecedented sell-off , Egypt has already seen the pound weaken in recent days .
The central bank may also have been emboldened by the first slowing in Egyptian inflation since October .
The Arab world ’ s most populous nation has reported 126 cases of the virus .
It acted on rates the day after the U.S. Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut its benchmark by a full percentage point to near zero .
Gulf nations , including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , where the tourism industry is vital to the economy , has announced it ’ s halting flights from the nation ’ s airports from Thursday through the end of the month to stem cases of the illness .
The government said it has allocated 100 billion Egyptian pounds ( $ 6.4 billion ) to combat the coronavirus , without specifying what the funding will go toward .
The central bank Sunday announced a range of measures to protect the economy .
It ’ s giving businesses and individuals a six-month extension for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the same period .
“ The MPC ’ s preemptive decision provides appropriate support to domestic economic activity given the current challenging external environment , ” the central bank said .
To contact the reporter on this story : Mirette Magdy in Cairo at mmagdy1 @ bloomberg.net


washingtonpost--2020-03-16--Analysis | Europe Freezes Its Economy in Order to Fight the Coronavirus

France and Spain announced draconian steps , similar to those seen in virus-stricken neighbor Italy , which has already gone several steps further in imposing a lock-down on citizens .
Germany is planning partial border closures , and Austria has banned gatherings of more than five people .
The public-health imperative explains the need to strangle the euro-area economy and robbing citizens of basic freedoms , but the very real threat of a knock-on recession means another test looms for governments : The need for fiscal stimulus to cushion the blow .
A ramp-up in cases has sparked the ramp-up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Italy boast some of the highest confirmed cases of Covid-19 outside China , according to data compiled by Bloomberg , at 5,423 , 7,753 and 24,747 respectively .
The speed and severity of the infection is picking up : French cases have risen five-fold in just over a week , while Spanish deaths have doubled overnight .
After initially holding back from coercive measures beyond shutting schools , French President Emmanuel Macron ’ s administration dramatically hit the accelerator on Saturday , decreeing the imminent closure of all non-essential businesses .
( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , held a first round of local elections as planned . )
Covid-19 is no longer just about highly exposed countries like China or Italy .
Its epicenter is European .
Forcing people to stay at home may seem at odds with a region that has for years espoused free movement and borderless travel .
But the hope is that this will slow down the spread of the disease and flatten an infection curve that might otherwise take public-health services to the breaking point .
That ’ s sensible .
Less sensible is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sounds great to some voters but is ultimately pretty meaningless when you consider the Schengen visa-free travel area covers 4 million square kilometers , 400 million people , and plenty of crossing points by sea , land or air .
Especially considering that since the novel coronavirus landed in Europe , myriads of people have been crossing Europe ’ s internal borders , at least some of them bringing the infection with them .
Still , overall , there is a certain logic behind what ’ s being done .
The question is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it takes ” to offset the economic consequences of effectively putting a dome around tens of millions of people .
What began this year as a hit to tourism and multinational supply chains running through China is now likely to affect all industries .
Italy ’ s lock-down measures are estimated to have hit tourism and transport activity by 90 % , retail by 50 % , and factory output by 10 % , according to former Italian government economist Lorenzo Codogno .
The European Union expects the bloc ’ s GDP to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Replacing a virus outbreak with a recession and more strains on public services looks painful .
Encouragingly , it looks like momentum behind emergency spending plans is growing .
The French government is eyeing a package worth over 30 billion euros ( $ 33.4 billion ) , according to Les Echos , covering partial unemployment , taxes , and state guarantees for small-business loans .
That ’ s after Germany ’ s pledge to support businesses via state bank KfW , and Italy ’ s plan for 25 billion euros of spending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion euros in loan guarantees via the European Investment Bank .
The biggest threat to a truly effective crisis response may end up coming from across the Atlantic , rather than from Brussels : There ’ s not much hope that a conference call between G7 leaders scheduled for Monday will bring U.S. President Donald Trump closer to European countries he has accused of spreading a virus he has said is under “ tremendous ” control in the U.S .
It is the virus that will have the last word , to paraphrase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the infection curve fails to flatten as hoped over time , it ’ s hard to see how the promise of more money will calm homebound voters or jittery markets .
For now , though , there are some chinks of optimism in the gloom .
Europe is opting to freeze its economy in order to heal it , and a recession is likely — but increased commitment by governments to sink budgets deeper into the red , in order to cushion the blow , is a welcome development .
Until the response @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though , any celebration will feel premature .


washingtonpost--2020-03-16--Congress Weighs How to Pump Cash, Confidence to Virus-Weary U.S.

Congressional leaders have already assigned key committee leaders to develop a third package of legislation in response to the outbreak .
This one would more directly stimulate the economy than the $ 8 billion allocated for equipment and supplies and a bill awaiting Senate action that would provide free virus testing , extend paid sick leave benefits , funnel money to the states for health care , and unlock loans for some small businesses .
“ This is like the scene in ‘ Jaws ’ where they say they ’ re going to need a bigger boat , ” said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities who was an economic adviser to former Vice President Joe Biden .
“ The bill that the Senate is considering this week is going to provide like half a percent to GDP , and we are going to need way more than that.
” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said Monday he will soon announce a $ 750 billion aid package that would “ mainline money into the economy and directly into the hands of families that need it most ” as well as address hospital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provide immediate payment forbearance or all federal loans , and pause all evictions and foreclosures .
Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have called on Congress to provide some sort of stimulus to airline , cruise and travel industry companies that have seen business drop -- or in some cases , such as Carnival Corp. , come to a complete halt .
The White House is considering allowing airlines to keep some of the ticket taxes and fees they collect to help shore up their bottom line .
House Republicans are drafting a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ federal loans to buy jet fuel and boost grants to fund airport cleanings .
Republicans and Democrats , however , are looking at ways to send checks to households , which would get the money into the economy more quickly than a payroll tax cut and would provide a cash infusion to people who don ’ t earn a paycheck .
Democratic Representatives Tim Ryan , of Ohio , and Ro Khanna , of California , have also proposed sending checks to Americans who earn less than $ 65,000 , which would mean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Those checks would range from $ 1,000 to $ 6,000 depending on income .
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin , who brokered the most recent coronavirus bill with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi , has said the administration might be open to such payments in the form of a refundable tax credit , saying on Fox News Sunday , “ that has certain advantages of we can inject money really quickly.
” Among economists , the idea of across-the-board cash handouts as a response to the epidemic has been rapidly gaining support in recent days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ become much clearer .
Sending checks to all Americans would help households to keep current with financial obligations , from rent to payments due on various kinds of loans , while the economy is on pause and normal incomes dry up .
It ’ s a way of ensuring that people don ’ t lose their homes or see their credit scores tumble because of a severe but temporary downturn caused by an epidemic .
Lawmakers are also considering helping retail stores and restaurants that are likely to see large sales drops as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stop the virus ’ s spread .
These businesses are likely to see depressed sales for months as a downturn in consumer sentiment keeps shoppers away and some , who rely on overseas imports , are unable to get products from factories in China that have shuttered .
Under consideration is Small Business Administration grants for some businesses that don ’ t qualify for emergency loans from the agency .
Democrats are also looking at ways to provide tax credits to employers who keep employees on the payroll even if they have to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keen to fix a mistake in the 2017 tax law that restricted tax breaks for restaurants and retailers renovating their stores .
Republicans would likely have to concede a Democratic priority in the bill to get that through , but lawmakers note it could help the economic response because it would encourage businesses to spend and hire construction teams for the renovation .
However , infrastructure has proven to be the one issue with theoretical bipartisan agreement that can ’ t ever seem to gain traction .
The most recent infrastructure negotiations ended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a White House meeting with Pelosi and other Democratic leaders .
The talks haven ’ t resumed since then .


washingtonpost--2020-03-16--Analysis | A Short-Selling Ban Makes Perfect Sense

The coronavirus outbreak came at the worst time for President Moon Jae-in .
Only a few months ago , the Kospi Index finally came out of a deep bear market , characterized by steep conglomerate discounts and historically low trading turnover .
Then the virus hit , hammering the benchmark index right back into bear territory .
On a two- , five- and 10-year horizon , Korea ’ s stock market has consistently underperformed its north Asian peers of China , Japan and Taiwan .
Moon may feel that he is doing a good job controlling the outbreak .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ budget to fight a virus-induced slowdown , and Korea ’ s less draconian , tech-savvy containment measures have been lauded by health experts .
But his good efforts aren ’ t being rewarded by investors .
On Friday , the Kospi hit its first circuit breaker since Sept. 11 , 2001 , which prompted the short-selling ban .
When conventional methods fail , market-unfriendly ones become the next step .
With investors animated and frantically trading , the case for restrictions on short selling is much stronger now than , say , last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If there ’ s one lesson we have learned from the global financial crisis , it ’ s that global economic growth is hard to come by .
Lower productivity aside , we ’ ve had unpleasant shocks beyond the coronavirus , from the U.S.-China trade war to an oil-price crash .
As a result , industrial behemoths such as Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. , which rely on the global supply chain , get dumped first in a market meltdown .
And when you think of companies listed in Seoul @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of export machines that dominate .
Earlier in the year , foreigners were still net buyers of Korean stocks , cheered that memory-chip prices had stabilized , and by prospects that oversupply would finally meet increasing demand .
The coronavirus changed the calculus entirely .
Since late January , foreigners net sold $ 8.3 billion of Korean stocks , cashing out about $ 4.3 billion from Samsung and another $ 800 million from Hynix .
Even if a government is doing everything right , sentiment toward its stock market may not go in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cyclical nature , the world might just be coming out of a recession when the six-month ban ends , and will look at Korea fondly once again.The Bank of Korea said Friday it was considering an emergency meeting .
But as we ’ ve seen in U.S. stock futures ’ reaction to the Federal Reserve ’ s daring rate cuts and quantitative-easing relaunch , conventional policy methods fail to inspire market confidence in the face of the coronavirus .
Ultimately , some blame still lies at the feet of the Moon administration for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Chaebol reform , Moon ’ s ambitious campaign promise to untangle Korea ’ s web of conglomerates , has stalled .
The dominance of these companies hamper Korea Inc. ’ s will and ability to innovate , leading to a dearth of unicorns needed to freshen up the Kospi .
Instead , we ’ re left with Samsung , which earns 85 % of its sales overseas and has seen its operations slow because of the virus .
In recent weeks , Vietnam ’ s quarantine of South Korean arrivals kept engineers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If Americans are lamenting the end of the S & P 500 ’ s bull run , Koreans must be wondering if their stock market can ever recover .
As we ’ ve learned from the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. , a cyclical market isn ’ t a healthy one .


washingtonpost--2020-03-16--Analysis | Trump’s Energy Dominance Dream Submits to Reality

One way to think about energy dominance is as psychological balm soothing those scars from 1970s gas lines that linger in the collective memory ( for a certain generation of Americans anyway ) .
It leapfrogs the old dream of energy independence straight to a world where America wields the whip hand once more .
This abandonment of decades of encouraging free markets to blunt the energy weapon in favor of just sharpening our own is entirely in keeping with a broader shift in foreign and trade policy ( see this and this ) .
And fracking , reversing decades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ production , is the critical element .
In certain respects , tight oil and gas is ideal for energy dominance .
Reserves are vast while output is both prodigious and reacts relatively quickly to changes in oil and gas prices .
The wave of supply has flattened those prices , to the benefit of suddenly less-anxious American drivers and , as exports rise , the detriment of bogeymen like OPEC .
It doesn ’ t get much more MAGA than that .
The catch ?
Many frackers were so busy growing they forgot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Even before coronavirus showed up , capital markets had backed away from the sector , withdrawing the funds vital to bridging the gap between income and spending ( see this ) .
The twin shocks of coronavirus and the Saudi-Russian price war have hit an industry made vulnerable by its own excesses and reliance on OPEC or capital markets to head off any disruption .
With E & P companies now competing on how quickly they can cut budgets rather than spur growth , output will fall , jobs will be lost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hence the turn to Washington .
President Donald Trump ’ s immediate plan manages to murder irony by buying U.S. oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve .
The SPR is that ‘ 70s symbol of vulnerability the administration had been liquidating in our new era of “ dominance.
” ( 1 ) The Feds now aim to buy oil for the strategic reserve in order to shore up the fracking revolution that was going to render it obsolete .
In an extreme supply shock , such as during a major war , America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ energy needs for an extended period is far stronger today than just 10 years ago .
At best , though , that ’ s a narrowly defined , costly , likely state-directed form of energy independence for a specific situation , not dominance .
In the normal course of things , the U.S. remains energy interdependent because , as with most supply chains , that ’ s a more efficient path .
This is why the U.S. is now a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products but still imports about six @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the sort of nuance that gets lost in a political slogan .
As shale ’ s current predicament shows , fetishizing sheer output comes at a steep price .
This is why Russia and Saudi Arabia boast of their ability to withstand the inevitable economic hit that will come from their price war by digging into savings — and both of those remain on my handy list of economies not to emulate .
The contradictions and weaknesses of energy dominance have been evident from the get-go .
Trump ’ s first energy secretary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of his own trying to craft creative regulatory crutches to support the ailing U.S. coal mining industry , which ails in large part because of the fracked natural gas the administration also champions .
Efforts on coal ’ s behalf continue at the state level ; just last week the Indiana state senate passed a measure that would give regulators the right to simply block closures of coal-fired plants .
Meanwhile , with oil , the Trump administration fights to roll back vehicle-mileage targets , even though efficiency gains , in bending the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sustainable route to anything approaching energy independence .
A mandate here , an SPR-fill there and who knows what else to come .
Energy dominance is just a new bumper sticker promoting the same old objective : government support for domestic fossil fuels whenever competition or some other disruption threatens , be it a novel virus or novel energy technologies or usage patterns .
It remains deeply strange , if drearily predictable , that this most advanced of economies should have a federal energy policy — in the loosest sense of the word @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were cutting-edge a hundred years ago while frequently undercutting emerging ones .
For those vulnerable oil champions nonetheless hopeful of a new handout , there is a bigger question they should be considering .
What does it say about the health of their sector that the big three actors on the global stage today consist of a shale industry with a chronic balance sheet problem and two sclerotic petrostates playing chicken with their foreign-exchange reserves ?
( 1 ) I actually think selling some of the SPR ’ s barrelsisn ’ t necessarily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. oil supply and demand over the past 20 years ( see this ) .
But the latest twist is in a class of its own .


washingtonpost--2020-03-16--Analysis | Virus Crisis Means Grocers Must Think Out of the Box

It amounts to a significant operational challenge for food retailers and producers .
There are , however , some measures they can take to adapt .
Firstly , it makes sense to simplify ranges .
Rather than producing a selection of sliced bread , bakers can ditch the seeded wholemeal and the old-fashioned farmhouse loaf and produce just one type of brown bread and one type of white .
This makes production more efficient , and minimizes the time that machinery needs to be cleaned down .
There may not be as much choice – but supply would be less @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be faster to adapt than others , depending on their existing setup .
In the U.K. , for instance , Wm Morrison Supermarkets Plc makes more than half of all the fresh food it sells .
Production capacity being used to make items where demand has fallen off , say sandwiches for office workers , could be repurposed for other types of food .
This won ’ t be instantaneous .
But it is an option if changes to the way people live become more enduring .
Online grocery delivery is associated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the tap of a smartphone , but it doesn ’ t have to be like that .
There ’ s nothing to stop supermarkets setting up alternative arrangements .
For example , consumers could call a store , an assistant could pick the order from the shelves , and then deliver it to the customer – maybe in partnership with taxi ( or car rental ) firms that are being hit by a drop in demand .
Of course , this all assumes that there are sufficient staff who remain available for work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But it is plausible that some workers could be retrained to meet the demands of a vastly expanded online grocery industry .
While it should be feasible to train drivers from , say hospitality , where they are used to dealing with customers , getting enough refrigerated vans is more of problem .
Again , it ’ s possible that vehicles that usually deliver to the restaurant trade could be used .
Some observers have likened the hike in demand to that at the holiday season .
But at least retailers can plan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about customers slipping an extra treat into the basket ; the demand is for lower margin , everyday items in bulk .
There are people and physical assets in other industries that have rapidly become under-employed .
They could help the retail industry , just as retailers can help themselves by rethinking precisely what they sell and what customers need .
The pressure now is on management to be inventive in re-designing their model for a new reality .


washingtonpost--2020-03-16--Analysis | Limit Travel to Fight Coronavirus? The Pros and Cons

The U.S. barred entry of most foreign nationals who have been in continental Europe , then widened the ban days later to include the U.K. and Ireland .
Some countries inside Europe ’ s passport-free travel zone -- known as the Schengen area -- have reintroduced border checks for the first time since 1995 .
Italy , the biggest focus of the pandemic outside China , has become increasingly cut off .
Russia and Norway joined more than 50 nations that were banning foreigners , halting flights or requiring travelers to self-quarantine .
India suspended most visas .
According to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from previous outbreaks has generally shown that such restrictions are “ ineffective in most situations.
” It ’ s difficult to evaluate the efficacy of travel restrictions because they are often imposed along with other measures , making it difficult to sort out the effects of each .
Thus , most related studies are based on mathematical models and are therefore somewhat limited .
A review of studies published in 2014 concluded that travel restrictions had limited effectiveness in preventing the spread of influenza .
Another in January found the same for two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ respiratory syndrome , or SARS , which like Covid-19 is caused by a coronavirus .
The studies that were reviewed often concluded that travel restrictions , especially when implemented quickly , could delay the importation of a virus or the peak of infections by days , weeks or even two months .
This can give health authorities time to prepare for an outbreak , for example by preparing tests and training medical workers .
In a March 10 report , the WHO advised that measures restricting people ’ s movements during the Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health risk .
They should be short in duration and reviewed regularly as more information about the virus becomes available .
There was considerable skepticism among global health officials when China imposed the most extensive quarantine in known history in response to its Covid-19 epidemic .
Yet China ’ s apparent success curbing the outbreak has won praise and attracted imitation by Italy and Spain .
In a lockdown affecting as many as 60 million people , Chinese officials sealed off Wuhan , where the outbreak began , and nearby cities in Hubei @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were largely confined to their homes .
Spain and Italy ’ s restrictions -- which effectively lock down both countries -- include shuttering all shops except grocery stores , pharmacies and a few others .
Many countries are closing schools and universities , canceling public events , barring gatherings or requiring residents to stop traveling unless they have a business or health-related justification .
With the number of new cases in China falling , the WHO concluded in a Feb. 28 report that the country ’ s “ bold approach , ” including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” of the epidemic .
“ These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans , ” it said .
WHO officials have said China ’ s strict quarantine likely bought the rest of the world two to three weeks to prepare for the virus and prevented hundreds of thousands of people from becoming sick .
The WHO notes that they can interrupt the flow of aid , technical support , and goods that people regularly need .
The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people living with HIV in China were at risk of running out of their medicine because of the curbs .
Restrictions on movement can contribute to the stigmatization of people from communities affected by epidemics , and they can create a false sense of security in unaffected areas , distracting officials from taking other measures .
The fear of having trade and travel limits imposed on an area can lead governments to conceal outbreaks , or the extent of them .
And restrictions disrupt commerce .
The lockdown in China prompted economists to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world ’ s second-biggest economy to the lowest level in three decades .
They also warned of a global recession .
The WHO advised on Feb. 29 that temperature screening at border points “ is not an effective way to stop international spread.
” A big reason is that monitoring for fever may miss infected passengers still in the incubation phase and asymptomatic , or those trying to hide symptoms by taking medication .
People suffering from other illnesses could also get caught up in the process .
What it does recommend is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arrive .
These typically ask travelers to state any disease symptoms and recent trips to epidemic hotspots , and to give a seat number and contact details , in case it ’ s necessary to trace travelers later .
Airlines in Europe and the U.S. are pleading for government support to weather the most brutal downturn in the industry ’ s history .
Flight cancellations have skyrocketed since the outbreak of the virus .
A trade group of Asian airlines urged governments to roll back or refrain from using travel restrictions , arguing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ through local transmission .
Most international air carriers have halted service to China and the restrictions announced by Trump will stop flights on some of the most popular routes to the U.S. , the world ’ s largest air travel market .
Cruise companies have also suffered and some ships have found themselves temporarily trapped at sea , as governments seek to keep cases away from their shores .
Carnival Corp. ’ s cruise ship unit halted all sailings for two months , affecting 18 ships .


washingtonpost--2020-03-16--Analysis | U.S. Factories Helped Win World War II. They Can Do It Again.

Countries across the globe sealed their borders over the weekend and relegated citizens to the confines of their homes in an effort to slow the spread of the deadly virus before it overwhelms the Western World ’ s health-care systems .
The president of Massachusetts General Hospital called on Sunday for the federal government to go into a “ war-like stance ” and launch a “ Manhattan Project ” to accelerate production of protective gear .
No such plan has been announced by the Trump administration , but U.S. industrial companies should heed the call anyway .
Because as far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for which the country is woefully unprepared .
The U.S. has fewer than 170,000 ventilators available for patient care , including estimates for those in the national stockpile , according to a report last month from the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health .
( The school is supported by Michael Bloomberg , founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP , the parent company of Bloomberg News . )
The number of face masks in that strategic reserve was depleted in the swine-flu outbreak of 2009 and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 12 million N95 respirators and 30 million surgical masks , significantly fewer than the 3.5 billion masks experts estimate the U.S. would need in a severe pandemic , according to the Washington Post .
It falls to private manufacturers to step in and fill the void .
With airlines parking jets , consumers locked in their homes and companies focusing on managing the disruption , demand for jet engines , HVAC systems and factory equipment is going to shrivel up for the near future .
Rather than sit idle , American factories @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to fight the coronavirus , whether that ’ s face masks , ventilators , other health-care equipment or even toilet paper for that matter .
The Trump administration has already leaned heavily on companies such as Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings , Roche Holding AG and Walmart Inc. to improve the availability and access to testing .
But White House virus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx warned on Sunday that there will be a spike in cases as more people get access to tests .
That ’ s when the real work is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s hospitals .
It ’ s in every U.S. company ’ s interest to make sure they ’ re as prepared as possible , and manufacturers have a key role to play .
Companies such as 3M Co. and Honeywell International Inc. already make masks and personal-protective gear , but they will need help to meet the huge demand .
After China declared a “ people ’ s war ” on the outbreak in that country , companies including electric automaker BYD Co. , petroleum refiner Sinopec and iPhone assembler Foxconn started making @ @ @ @ @ @ @ announced Sunday it ’ s converting perfume and cosmetics factories to make hand sanitizer , which it will deliver free of charge to the local authorities and hospital system .
In the U.K. , Prime Minister Boris Johnson is calling on manufacturers including Dyson , Unipart Group , Honda and Ford to help with that country ’ s ventilator shortage , according to the Financial Times .
American companies need to follow this lead .
Apart from the moral and patriotic implications , it ’ s just good business sense .
The faster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the faster it can get back on its feet .


washingtonpost--2020-05-29--U.S. Cases Rise 1.2% for Third Day; Moderna Trial: Virus Update

Portugal will delay by three days reopening shopping malls in the Lisbon region , which reported new clusters of the coronavirus .
The capital ’ s malls will remain closed until June 4 as other centers open as planned on June 1 , Prime Minister Antonio Costa said .
Lisbon ’ s situation is not “ out of control ” and new cases are quite focused , he said after the biggest daily jump in infections in three weeks .
New York City will start reopening some businesses on June 8 , Governor Andrew Cuomo said , as officials meet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ following to end the mandatory lockdown .
The city could see 400,000 workers back on the job as the first phase of reopening begins , he said.A sticking point for the city is a high infection rate in some communities .
Cuomo said the overall rate is about 20 % but that in some neighborhoods in the Bronx and Brooklyn , the rate exceeds 40 % .
The governor said officials will concentrate on those hot spots next week , which he said will set the stage for reopening .
The Metropolitan Transportation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ commuter rail and bus services , is preparing for the return of workers , he said.
“ Reopening does not mean we ’ re going back to the way things were , ” Cuomo said .
“ We go forward.
” The death from Covid-19 of a woman in Santa Clara County , California , who fell ill on Jan. 31 , plus the death of an unrelated man between Feb. 13 and 17 , show that the virus was established well before the first known case of community transmission was diagnosed on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report .
A genetic analysis found a single lineage of virus was imported from China between Jan. 18 and Feb. 9 , followed by several from Europe .
Investors think Moderna Inc. ’ s experimental Covid-19 inoculation wouldn ’ t be enough to unlock the economy , an Evercore ISI survey showed .
The survey of over 100 investors -- more than half of whom specialize in health care -- found there ’ s a 43 % probability that Moderna ’ s vaccine would be sufficient to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Joshua Schimmer wrote in a note .
Still , a majority expect the next update on mRNA-1273 will be positive and predicted emergency use authorization will be granted in the fourth quarter and regulatory approval in 2021 .
Portugal reported 350 new cases on Friday , the biggest daily increase in three weeks , with new infections mostly in the Lisbon region .
Total cases stand at 31,946 after cases rose for five days .
New deaths were 14 , bringing the total to 1,383 .
New cases near Lisbon have come from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certain neighborhoods , Director-General of Health Graca Freitas said Friday .
Portugal started easing confinement measures on May 4 and plans to further loosen restrictions on June 1 .


washingtonpost--2020-05-29--Analysis | Consumers Start Feeling More Comfortable

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washingtonpost--2020-05-29--Analysis | Why Kids Should Go Straight Back to School

The right one is to get the kids back into their classrooms .
And not just partially , as our schools are doing here in Berlin , where children rotate in and out of their physical classes in a complex and staggered pattern for specified hours or days , depending on their grade .
Ask parents or children , or at least those who have access to online learning , and most will say that this stop-go education is more stressful and less effective than schooling was during the total lockdown .
On one side of the ledger , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in spreading the coronavirus in the wider population , and thus their contribution to renewed spikes in cases .
On the other side is the damage school closures do to their education , well-being and life prospects , and indirectly even to the cohesion and prosperity of entire societies in the coming generation .
It ’ s pretty well established that healthy children — that is , those without preexisting conditions — are somewhat less likely to catch the coronavirus and a lot less likely to suffer severe symptoms .
Recently reported cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are scary , but very rare .
The relevant question for epidemiologists , therefore , is whether children , especially when asymptomatic , can easily spread the virus to adults , causing new outbreaks and endangering high-risk groups such as the elderly .
With the seasonal flu , this is the case .
With the coronavirus , the science just isn ’ t clear .
Data from several countries — notably Iceland — suggest that children are less likely to give the virus to their parents or other adults than to catch it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ children may be just as contagious as adults .
Perhaps the most controversial such study was done by a team around Christian Drosten , a virologist here in Berlin who ’ s become a national celebrity since the outbreak .
They published a paper showing that the viral load in children is similar to that in adults .
Drosten concluded that children are infectious enough to warrant keeping schools closed .
But other scientists , including statisticians , have questioned the Drosten team ’ s math .
Drosten now plans to update his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sign of just how charged the controversy has become , this week he received a package containing a vial filled with an apparently dangerous liquid and the instruction , “ drink this – it ’ ll make you immune.
” Meanwhile , several German pediatric associations have concluded that children are indeed significantly less contagious , and that schools should be opened .
As this debate rages on , what about the other side of the ledger , the damage done not by Covid-19 but by interrupted education ?
Here there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report signed by more than 90 education experts and economists — again , here in Germany , but they could be anywhere — spells it out .
As schools stay totally or partially closed , the experts argue , children aren ’ t merely learning less , they ’ re also forgetting much of what they ’ d already learned , from grammar to social skills .
The worst off , unsurprisingly , are kids from low-income or dysfunctional families , not to mention those who suffered abuse or stress at home even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , school closures mean the disappearance of healthy meals , safe surroundings and oases of support .
The consequences will last , both for the children and for their societies .
Many of the kids will spend less time in school or university even in later years , the report ’ s authors say , and will achieve less while they ’ re there .
They ’ ll be more likely to be unemployed as adults .
And even when they do work , they will earn less .
Each year of school @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 % of foregone lifetime income , so even a few months can make a big difference .
These cohorts of the undereducated will strain welfare systems and public budgets , dampen the economic growth of entire countries and increase inequality enough to stress political cohesion .
In countries or regions where Covid-19 is more or less under control — spreading , but not overwhelming health systems — the responsible policy is therefore to open schools .
It will lead to some additional infections and fatalities .
But the alternative would lead to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ down the line .
As a parent , I know the kids won ’ t wear their masks properly and don ’ t always count out the whole Happy Birthday song while washing their hands .
But let ’ s teach them how to stay as safe as they can .
Above all , let ’ s teach them again .


washingtonpost--2020-05-29--Analysis | How Fed Could Goose Economy via Yield-Curve Control

The yield curve ( YCC ) is the relationship between rates on bonds of varying durations .
Investors generally demand a higher yield for holding longer-term debt , meaning that the curve is normally upward sloping .
And normally , central banks manage monetary policy through short-term rates only : The Fed , for instances , creates incentives to keep overnight borrowing within a range it specifies -- what ’ s known as the Fed Funds rate .
In a policy of yield-curve control , the central bank also sets a target yield for one or more specific maturities of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yield-curve control will announce its target rates and maturities -- and that it will buy those securities in whatever amounts are necessary to peg the rate there .
As well as capping longer-term borrowing costs for the government , this will bring down rates for businesses and consumers .
The policy also helps convey the message that benchmark short-term rates will be staying low , according to some Fed officials .
Yes .
The Bank of Japan has been pursuing yield-curve control since 2016 as part of its fight against deflation , after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bond purchases failed to achieve inflation targets .
Japan chose to pin 10-year rates at zero -- which ensures a degree of upward slope in the yield curve , since its overnight policy rate is negative .
Australia adopted a different version of the idea in March , in response to the coronavirus .
The Reserve Bank of Australia is targeting three-year bond yields at 0.25 % as part of its quantitative-easing program .
India ’ s central bank , while it hasn ’ t publicly said so , is reckoned by many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of yield-curve control since February .
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams says policy makers are “ thinking very hard ” about targeting specific yields on Treasury securities , because it ’ s another way -- on top of keeping the benchmark interest rate near zero -- to ensure that borrowing costs stay at rock-bottom levels .
Such a maneuver could “ potentially complement ” other policy actions , ” Williams said in an interview on Bloomberg Television .
For now , only a few Fed board members , including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But “ it ’ s not a stretch to think that more supporters would come on board once the idea is fully thrashed out , ” said Roberto Perli , a partner at Cornerstone Macro LLC and a former Federal Reserve economist , wrote in a note .
Wall Street investors predict that the Fed would most likely follow the Australian example , selecting Treasury debt with maturities of somewhere between two and five years as its target .
That view aligns with the support expressed by at least a few Fed officials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ maturities , ” according to minutes from their April meeting .
It would be a departure from the only other time the Fed used the strategy , during World War II , when it capped yields on 30-year bonds as well as Treasury bills .
The likely effect would be to expand the gap between 5- and 30-year Treasury yields , that is , to “ suppress real rates and lift inflation expectations , ” according to Mark Cabana , head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America Corp .
He predicts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as early as September , opting to cap yields on 2- or 3-year Treasuries at around 0.25 % ( currently the top of the target range for the central bank ’ s overnight policy rate ) .
If the Fed helps the federal government battle the coronavirus by holding interest rates down , it could find its ability to raise rates after the crisis constrained by the huge budgetary impact of even a small increase in borrowing costs .
Still , that could be true regardless of whether the Fed adopts yield-curve control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won ’ t arise until there ’ s a pickup in inflation , which most economists don ’ t see as an imminent threat .


washingtonpost--2020-05-28--Analysis | Jamie Dimon Captures the Stock Market Moment

In the past month , the equity market ’ s glass has gone from pretty much empty to at least half full and that ’ s down to the coordinated fiscal and monetary effort from authorities far and wide .
You want some quantitative easing ?
Please , have some more and take some for the journey home .
Even those foot draggers at the European Union are talking about radical fiscal action .
We won ’ t really see a V-shaped economic recovery , but it seems like we ’ ve stopped the L. Nonetheless , this is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rather than any economic data .
Central bank and government action may have restored financial valuations but real incomes will still suffer dramatically for a long while to come .
Unemployment and diminished consumption can not be magicked away .
The stock market is looking even further into the distance than usual to justify its valuations , which is sometimes hard to square away against a constant stream of dire economic statistics and evaporating company earnings .
Since QE came to life during the global financial crisis , it has paid for investors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and focus instead on the rising tide of money .
The central banks have learned their post-2008 lessons and have barely put a foot wrong this time .
This is having uneven effects , however .
The bulk of the stimulus is coming into investment-grade assets because that ’ s where central banks feel more comfortable .
Credit spreads have recovered most in BBB and A-rated bonds .
High-yield yield assets improved sharply at first , but this has abated .
The spread between the yields on investment-grade debt and those of junk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen in February .
Similarly , new debt issuance is motoring again but only for the better-quality names .
While U.S. banks such as Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. are returning for the fifth or sixth time this year to replenish capital , the junk sector has been restricted to one-off selective deals — often with eye-watering yields .
The change in stock market sentiment isn ’ t just about QE .
The oil price collapse has come and gone and fears of a devastating second wave of Covid-19 are easing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in several European countries too , and some of the recent improvement may be explained by that .
The sound of economies cranking back into life can just about be made out over the whirring of the monetary printing presses , allowing even bombed-out old economy stocks to recover , not just the new technology darlings .
Notably , some of the recent action has been in high-dividend stocks , which had been forced to skip shareholder payouts at the height of the crisis .
Investors had feared that the dividend bans might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it may be a quarter or two .
Many investment funds work off a dividend-yield model .
Investment managers may be doing the natural thing right now and chasing the rising stock market indexes , but that doesn ’ t mean they ’ re brimful of confidence .
The Bank of America fund manager survey for May shows extreme bearishness pervades , with only 10 % expecting a V-shaped recovery and 68 % expecting stock prices to fall .
Given the recent positive news on the virus and the gradual ending of lockdowns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The fiscal response will determine how the economy recovers over the long term but the monetary triage has worked better than anyone could have expected in those ugly days of March .
For that we should be grateful , and for the stock market ’ s semi-rational exuberance .


washingtonpost--2020-05-29--Analysis | Trump’s China Fight Shows Covid-19 Hasn’t Changed Oil’s World

Last year , the big challenge confronting oil demand was the trade war .
This eased somewhat in January with the “ phase one ” agreement committing China to buy more U.S. exports , including extra freedom molecules of energy .
Even then , however , most of President Donald Trump ’ s tariffs were left in place , and sensitive issues such as Chinese subsidies were deferred .
It was more ceasefire than treaty .
The guns are silent no longer .
China ’ s decision to effectively lop off the second half of Hong Kong ’ s “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was met with Secretary of State Michael Pompeo ’ s announcement the U.S. would take Beijing at its word .
No longer recognized as autonomous , Hong Kong ’ s trade could be hit with tariffs , and the U.S. could even impose sanctions .
More importantly , this is a tangible breach after months of escalating tension , with tit-for-tat expulsions of journalists and Trump even floating the idea of China being “ knowingly responsible ” in the spread of Covid-19 .
The phase one agreement , meanwhile , was off to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just $ 14.4 billion of goods listed under the deal in the first quarter , versus the $ 34 billion implied by the targets , according to Bloomberg Economics .
With November looming , and his presidency tainted by America ’ s Covid-19 death toll and joblessness , Trump may well have decided China makes a better pandemic scapegoat than economic buttress .
But antipathy to Beijing extends beyond the president .
In the same week Pompeo opened the door to sanctions over Hong Kong , the Democratic-controlled House voted almost unanimously to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ against the country ’ s Uighur minority .
For reasons extending back much further than the existence of the Chinese Communist Party , such prods into the country ’ s internal affairs will touch a nerve , potentially escalating a trade dispute into broader great-power rivalry .
The unraveling of free trade has been apparent since at least the 2016 presidential campaign .
As I wrote here a few years ago , this is particularly pernicious for an oil market built on the back of globalization and U.S. security guarantees .
Far from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a common enemy , Covid-19 elicited a more Darwinian response , even between supposedly united states .
Besides attempts to tattoo a flag on the virus , its arrival threw a spotlight on countries ’ vulnerability to shortages of imported medical supplies , providing fodder for economic nationalists seeking re-shoring and a general shortening of supply chains .
Fragmentation means friction , which tends to suppress growth over time .
In projections published last year , BP Plc ran a “ less globalization ” case that took a hefty chunk out of forecast @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the latter case , even more than for a scenario of quicker de-carbonization .
The world also hasn ’ t changed as much as it might seem when it comes to oil supply , either .
The coronavirus world tour coincided with the breakdown of Saudi-Russia cooperation on production cuts — and then facilitated a rapid rapprochement as oil prices headed toward negative territory .
The swinging supply cuts forced on OPEC+ members , along with signs of congestion resuming in Chinese cities especially , helped drag oil back into the $ 30s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ haven ’ t changed altogether .
Russia has implemented big cuts but is reportedly keen to start unwinding these sooner rather than later .
As when it broke with OPEC+ in March , Moscow is done ceding market share to U.S. frackers .
The latter have cut production very quickly , but their instinct to get rigs and crews back to work remains strong .
Holding them in check are low prices , particularly for longer-dated futures , weighed down by the glut of physical oil and spare OPEC+ capacity that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months .
Shale does at last seem poised for rationalization .
However , supply ’ s defining characteristics of the past four years — excess inventory and OPEC+ versus shale competition — are for now accentuated rather than altered .
Similarly , the International Energy Agency ’ s latest investment report , which dropped this week , was consumed with Covid-19 yet trod familiar ground .
This showed the theme of excess supply extending into refining , where too much capacity was opening even before the pandemic showed up .
Above all , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markets , climate change , pervaded the discussion .
If anything , the pandemic is a reminder of why we should be tackling that threat head-on .
Covid-19 has both spotlighted the risk and , if stimulus efforts are shaped properly , may catalyze a response .
With uncanny timing , at Chevron Corp. ’ s ( virtual ) shareholder meeting this week , the only measure where a majority of investors voted against the board concerned aligning the oil major ’ s lobbying with efforts to address climate change .
There is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ know about the lasting impacts of Covid-19 or , indeed , the workings of the virus itself .
One thing that seems clear , however , is its tendency to magnify pre-existing conditions .
For oil , those were excess supply , fraying globalization and a looming climate emergency .


washingtonpost--2020-05-29--Analysis | We’ll All Be Renting a Local Airbnb This Summer

Optimism that people everywhere will be eager to wander once travel restrictions end drove a rebound in airline and tour-operator stocks this week .
But these hopes may be overdone .
Lingering health-safety concerns and uncertainty about which borders will open mean many consumers on both sides of the Atlantic will stick close to home this summer .
What ’ s more , they may favor a remote Airbnb rental instead of staying in a hotel , with the increased chances of running into other people in the lobby , elevator or restaurant .
Globally , new bookings at Airbnb @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Vrbo more than doubled from 916,000 in the week of April 5 to 2.08 million in the week of May 18 , according to AirDNA , a short-term rental data provider .
While the home-sharing site Airbnb has been hit hard by the travel trough , it said domestic bookings rose strongly in China , Korea , the Netherlands and Denmark in April , and they ’ ve increased significantly in Germany since the beginning of May .
More telling , Chief Executive Officer Brian Chesky told the Associated Press that 30 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ radius of people ’ s own homes — basically the next town over — up from 13 % before the novel coronavirus outbreak , a trend he attributes to people ’ s aversion to flying for now .
Take Germany , a country known for exporting summer tourists .
Short-term rentals in the North Sea coastal district of Nordfriesland , which includes the island of Sylt , enjoyed an almost 800 % increase in bookings between March 22 and May 17 , according to AirDNA .
And it ’ s unlikely they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just 16 % of visitors are from outside Germany .
By contrast , Berlin , a popular destination for foreign visitors , has seen just a 71 % increase .
It ’ s a similar picture in the U.S , where rentals near beaches in Alabama , Texas , Georgia and the Carolinas are proving popular .
By contrast , cities such as New York and San Francisco are recovering more slowly .
In this Covid-19 crisis , home-rental sites tend to have an advantage .
For example , the majority of Airbnb @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while most hotel chains have a bigger presence in cities .
Some of the lodging giants have also ventured into the holiday rental market .
Four years ago , French hotel giant Accor SA acquired Onefinestay , an upmarket competitor to Airbnb .
One potential drawback with private rentals during the pandemic is that guests have to trust hosts are cleaning and disinfecting well .
Hotel groups including Accor , Marriott International Inc. , Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. and InterContinental Hotels Group Plc have announced stringent hygiene standards .
Airbnb has responded with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Surgeon General Vivek Murthy , including advice on personal protective equipment and disinfectants .
Hosts who sign up can leave their properties empty for just 24 hours between guests .
Otherwise , they must respect a 72-hour “ booking buffer.
” For other people , getting away from home may mean taking their lodging with them .
Provisional bookings at caravan and campsites in the U.K. look promising .
In the U.S. , there ’ s been a bump in demand for motor homes .
Indeed , road trips may be one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sides of the Atlantic .
While all this pent-up demand is a good sign , it ’ s unlikely all the money usually spent on overseas travel will be recouped .
Staycations aren ’ t really conducive to flagrant discretionary spending in normal times , but the coronavirus outbreak and lockdowns has brought job losses and economic hardship as well .
That will eat into outlay .
For a gauge of comparison , in 2017 , the year after Britain voted to leave the European Union , the decline in the pound meant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only 60 % of what would have been spent abroad was redirected to the U.K. , according to analysts at Bernstein .
With this crisis , the effect could be even more extreme if shops have to restrict the number of patrons , local tourist attractions can ’ t open or people remain nervous about going to restaurants or bars even with all of the necessary social distancing measures in place .
Indeed , although Whitstable Holiday Homes , an agency for 39 houses , is enjoying its usual high level of bookings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , customers are waiting .
A crucial consideration will be whether the town ’ s vibrant eateries will be open alongside the fish-and-chip shops .


washingtonpost--2020-05-29--Small-Business Warning, Argentine Debt, EU Stimulus: Eco Day

• The coronavirus pandemic is worsening U.S. inequality along income and racial lines , Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said • Argentina published a new debt offer that shortens its payment moratorium to two years and delays principal payments for half a decade • The International Monetary Fund approved an $ 11 billion credit line for Peru as the South American nation ’ s economy endures a slump that may be the deepest in more than a century • The guardians of the European Union ’ s new 750 billion-euro ( $ 825 billion ) recovery plan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to ensure their grand show of unity doesn ’ t fail • The euro area ’ s inflation rate fell to the lowest level in four years , adding to reasons for the European Central Bank to expand monetary stimulus • The ECB will take center stage next week with investor attention focused on the likelihood of an increase in the size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme • The EU is urgently reviewing measures that would help companies and households take advantage of unprecedented relief measures after complaints that banks are reluctant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shrank more than initially estimated in the first quarter , reflecting coronavirus restrictions that started to be implemented earlier than in many other countries • Staring at a record debt issuance this fiscal year , traders in Japan ’ s sovereign bond market are signaling that the $ 2 trillion deluge will flatten the nation ’ s yield curve For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com


washingtonpost--2020-03-14--Analysis | The Case Against Closing Schools to Slow the Pandemic

The short answer is : It ’ s complicated .
In some cases , it does make sense to close schools .
But in the absence of a runaway outbreak , as in northern Italy , there is also a case against closing kindergartens and schools for young children .
There ’ s certainly no disagreement that the pandemic , which no country can hope to avoid or lock out ( that ’ s what “ pandemic ” means ) , must be slowed as much as possible .
Even if , theoretically , 100 % of the population is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ helps to spread out the caseload .
A spike can overwhelm hospitals .
This can put doctors with scarce resources in a position of having to triage whom to try to save .
With a slow progression , by contrast , more of those with severe symptoms can hope for decent treatment , and lives will be saved .
Nor is there disagreement that the best way to slow the spread of the virus , besides obvious measures like more hand-washing , is to reduce and even eliminate social mixing .
No matter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ damper on conviviality , many events — from trade fairs to birthday parties and soccer matches , and probably even the Olympics — should be called off .
Where possible , people should , for the time being , eat in and work from home .
But schools are different , in several ways .
First , the coronavirus , for reasons we don ’ t yet understand , seems not to make children very sick .
So the young are not the primary population needing to be protected for their own sake @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can accelerate the epidemiological math of the overall outbreak .
At some point — and this is the logic of the British coronavirus strategy — a majority of children will have been exposed , knowingly or not , and will have built up antibodies to it .
And at that point , a so-called herd immunity prevents the virus from spreading further .
An even bigger difference is the knock-on effects from closing schools versus cancelling adult events .
If a trade fair is called off , it just doesn ’ t happen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at home , unsupervised .
If a school or kindergarten is shuttered , the kids don ’ t miraculously vanish .
They must be cared for elsewhere .
But where exactly and by whom ?
In most cases , at home and by parents , of course .
That ’ s inconvenient but feasible for families with two spouses , where a breadwinner goes to work and the other stays home .
Or for those with white-collar jobs that can be done from home on a laptop with good WiFi , provided the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ families are so lucky .
What about single parents , the self-employed or those in the gig economy , or anybody in the blue-collar or manufacturing sector ?
And what about the many parents who are doctors or nurses ?
Their absence from work could trigger the very breakdown of the medical system policy makers were trying to prevent .
It ’ s important to ask if that ’ s a risk worth taking for the sake of keeping some children from being infected .
With these scenarios in mind , there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exceptions for some children .
But administering partial school closures could quickly become a nightmare , and in any case would be self-defeating .
Worse , a different sort of arrangement may instead prevail , the oldest one known to humankind .
In a struggling family , mom might still go to work to make ends meet , while grandma and grandpa look after the kids at home .
At this point a policy meant to slow an epidemic and prevent systemic breakdown would contribute to causing exactly that .
For it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk , who end up in intensive care and hospital beds.A better way to determine when and where to close schools would be to expand testing — in schools and everywhere — to observe and track the virus .
By all means , when there ’ s a spike in a particular school , or town or region , shut the schools down .
But in the meantime why not help all the other schools to do better what they ’ re already good at ?
This is looking after , and teaching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the stimulus packages being announced to invest in schools and their teachers .
Let ’ s also buy them medical kit and give them new staff trained to prevent contagion .
And let ’ s also enlist the wee ones in a heroic hygiene mission they ’ ll still be bragging about to their grandchildren .
Above all , let ’ s keep them away from their grandparents .
For that — separation — is ironically the way to show solidarity in this pandemic .


washingtonpost--2020-03-14--Analysis | The Stimulus Toolbox to Help Virus-Stricken Economies

Cutting interest rates is often the first move in any rescue effort .
This time , the People ’ s Bank of China was the first to act , trimming its benchmark lending rates on Feb. 16 .
Central banks in Australia , Canada , the U.S. and the U.K. have followed suit , and even more forcefully .
Yet many central banks are running out of space for further cuts .
In the U.S. , the rate is down to a range of 1 % to 1.25 % , compared with 5.25 % on the eve of the 2008 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Bank of Japan already have rates that are below zero ; no rate cut was even on the table when the ECB met in March .
On top of that , there are those who argue that this isn ’ t the best kind of medicine to treat economies that are facing both a “ supply ” and a “ demand ” shock .
That is , cheaper borrowing costs won ’ t do much for factories that are starved of materials , or get worried consumers to keep traveling or eating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the once unconventional idea of making huge bond purchases to nudge down long-term rates is now an established part of the central banks ’ armory .
Yet the strategy is seen as less effective when long-term rates are already low .
Advocates suggest boosting the policy ’ s power by expanding purchases beyond government and corporate bonds -- as the Bank of Japan has done , with its buying of exchange-traded funds .
The ECB resumed its so-called quantitative easing in 2019 and expanded it by 120 billion euros ( $ 135 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take a toll ; other central banks have indicated they would be prepared to resurrect programs in the face of weakness .
Central banks could try to maximize their limited firepower by delivering a coordinated move , the theory being that joint action might boost confidence more than the sum of its parts .
That would mirror the approach taken in 2008 , when the U.S. Federal Reserve , the ECB and four other central banks acted together to lower interest rates .
Some countries may be willing to sacrifice a measure of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and fiscal policies are complementary .
The BOE ’ s rate cut , together with moves to make financing available to struggling businesses , came on the same day the government announced fiscal stimulus measures .
There are more direct steps that policy makers can take to cushion confidence and keep money flowing freely .
Regulators in China have asked banks to be more lenient on bad loans -- providing relief through what ’ s known as forbearance .
The People ’ s Bank of China is extending 800 billion yuan ( $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support smaller and private companies , while the ECB was considering how it might support banks through its long-term lending program .
JPMorgan Chase & Co. economist Allan Monks says the Bank of England could take steps such as canceling a planned increase in the capital banks must hold .
Central banks exist to be the lender of last resort at times of crisis .
The Federal Reserve responded to signs of strain in markets for Treasury bonds and repurchase agreements by offering a cumulative $ 5 trillion in lending , in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do whatever it takes to keep short-term financing rates from spiking .
The ECB enhanced a loan program with terms that effectively amount to an interest-rate cut for banks that use it to pump money into the economy .
With more people around the globe encouraged to stay at home and avoid public gatherings , worried consumers everywhere are reluctant to shop or spend .
That ’ s increasing calls to to do more to address the “ demand ” side of the equation , too .
The U.S. , Japan , Italy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.K. and South Korea are among the countries assembling emergency spending packages .
Even before the coronavirus appeared , central banks were arguing that fiscal policy -- actions by governments such as lowering taxes or spending more on infrastructure -- should take on a larger role in spurring sluggish economies .
Such moves can shore up demand more directly and more quickly than monetary easing .
By March 12 , about $ 130 billion in budget support had been pledged or was under consideration by governments around the world .
Among the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to help companies with cash-flow problems ; enhanced jobless benefits , more generous medical leave and funds for medical expenses .
Here ’ s what ’ s happening in some countries : China has waived requirements for smaller companies to pay into the social security system from February to June .
The rate of value-added tax for smaller companies has also been reduced temporarily to 1 % from 3 % between March and May .
In the U.S. , Mnuchin said he planned to speak with banking agencies about what regulatory relief might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be simply handing out cash to citizens .
There ’ s been a robust debate in recent years over whether central banks can boost economic growth this way by simply creating extra cash -- a method known as helicopter money -- but no institution is seriously considering it .
Governments , however , have been less circumspect .
Hong Kong , Singapore and Macau all announced plans to give cash payouts or vouchers to people , either through regular budgetary payments or one-time handouts .
In Hong Kong , each permanent resident of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to receive a one-time handout of HK $ 10,000 ( $ 1,284 ) , a move Financial Secretary Paul Chan said would help aid a population “ overwhelmed by the heavy atmosphere .
”


washingtonpost--2020-03-14--Analysis | SoftBank Makes a Meltdown Move That’s All in the Timing

Son is not alone in seeing opportunity in signs that the global rout could continue , even after his company has lost a third of its value .
The announcement came Friday the 13th , a day after U.S. equities dropped the most since Black Monday in 1987 .
It includes a one-year timeline to conclude the buyback , plenty of time for prices to go lower .
Just hours earlier , Oracle Corp. announced that its board authorized a $ 15 billion buyback .
At the start of the week , Twitter Inc. said that it plans to repurchase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to placate Elliott , which had also called for changes at the social-media company .
Twitter had only lost 13 % from its recent high when it made its announcement ; Oracle was off about 29 % .
That ’ s how big a difference four days makes .
Investors were starting to question the outlook for Tokyo-listed SoftBank ’ s portfolio of companies even before the U.S. woke up to the severity of the Covid-19 outbreak .
Its stake in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is the single largest asset on the balance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on track to report one of its worst quarters of revenue growth since listing in 2014 .
Of course , the bigger issue is its stable of unicorns that live within the Vision Fund , including Chinese and Southeast Asian ride-hailing companies Didi Chuxing and Grab Holdings Inc. and short-video service ByteDance Inc. , as well as troubled Indian accommodation startup Oyo Hotels .
Despite troubles at some of these investments , notably office-rental outfit The We Company ( better know as WeWork ) , Son had brushed off most of Elliott ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investor conference and seemed unlikely to enact any of its recommendations beyond a buyback .
Among the impacts of a repurchase , beyond reducing the share pool and concentrating the value of each remaining share , is signalling confidence to investors and boosting the price .
Given the macroeconomic and market environment , it ’ s unlikely Twitter , Oracle or SoftBank ’ s shares will be able to swim against the tide and quickly rebound .
SoftBank , for example , closed 5.1 % lower Friday after dropping as much as 9.6 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ showing streaks of opportunism that emerge quickly in the kind of upheaval we ’ ve seen in recent days .
Expect more — Apple Inc. has plenty of cash , and is overdue for another big buyback announcement .
If you ’ re committing your company to buying something , then you may as well pay rock-bottom prices for it .
We ’ re still looking for the bottom .
It ’ s possible that that Son could mistime his buyback , which would make him look a little foolish .
More likely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inevitable rebound that will make him seem a genius , a moniker he has failed to earn recently .
Son may appear as though he ’ s listening to a vocal activist shareholder .
Actually , in the rich tradition of technology companies , he ’ s just being an opportunist .
Watch for others to follow suit .


washingtonpost--2020-03-14--Mideast Joins Global Stimulus With $47 Billion to Fight Crisis

Timed before the start of the work week in much of the Middle East on Sunday , policy makers are acting as many of the economies in the region are at risk of paralysis , with most countries shutting tourist attractions , closing schools and universities , and limiting public events .
The U.A.E .
also stopped issuing visas and halted flights to Iraq , Lebanon , Syria and Turkey .
Compounding the disruptions to trade and tourism from the coronavirus , the crash in oil prices is also crippling the economies in the energy-rich Persian Gulf .
Central banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ packages as the pandemic forces authorities to restrict international travel and even go into full lockdown to slow the spread and prevent it from overwhelming health services .
Cases have risen to more than 140,000 worldwide , with deaths topping 5,200 .
Days of panic last week prompted unprecedented joined-up fiscal and monetary action by the U.K. , a package of targeted aid by the European Central Bank , stimulus from the People ’ s Bank of China , an easing pledge from the Bank of Japan , and more firefighting by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Targeted Economic Support Scheme includes a 50-billion dirham aid package for banks in the country through collateralized , zero-interest loans .
Banks will also be allowed to free up capital buffers , which will make another 50 billion dirhams in liquidity available to lenders .
U.A.E .
banks are “ adequately capitalized and banks maintain significant voluntary capital buffers , ” the regulator said in a statement .
“ The purpose of the targeted scheme is to facilitate provision of temporary relief from the payments of principal and interest on outstanding loans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retail customers in the U.A.E.
” The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority , as the central bank is known , said the kingdom ’ s banking sector is still seeing “ good performance indicators.
” U.A.E .
regulators reiterated the long-standing peg of the country ’ s currency to the U.S. dollar , saying that the oil-rich nation ’ s “ ample reserves ” of 405 billion dirhams as of March 10 “ are adequate to safeguard the stability of the national currency.
” The central bank said the measures , effective immediately , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ customers affected by the virus .
Days earlier , Iran asked the International Monetary Fund for $ 5 billion to help it manage the outbreak .
Iran is the third-worst hit country after China and Italy • The Saudi package will bring 13.2 billion riyals in loans to small and medium-sized enterprises , provided through banks .
The businesses will be also supported through a 6 billion-riyal loan guarantee program .
• U.A.E .
banks to be allowed to use as much as 60 % of their capital conservation buffer while those deemed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ utilize their entire buffer .
• The U.A.E .
central bank raised the loan-to-value ratios related to mortgage loans taken by first-time home owners in the hope of making homes more affordable .
It will also revise limits on banks ’ maximum exposure to real estate , allowing their exposure to the sector to increase up to 30 % from 20 % currently as long as they have additional capital .


washingtonpost--2020-03-14--What Central Banks Did This Week as the Virus Hit Global Markets

Markets reacted just as aggressively .
Trading volatility spiked to levels not seen since the financial crisis as the S & P 500 Index ’ s historic bull run came to an end and signs of illiquidity emerged across debt markets .
Even the $ 17 trillion U.S. government-bond market wasn ’ t immune , with the gap between prices bid and sellers ’ offers widening sharply .
Meanwhile , the dollar staged its biggest jump in 12 years , climbing to a three-year high , as investors piled into haven assets.With more action likely next week , here ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week : Just over a week since cutting interest rates in an emergency move , the Fed offered markets trillions of dollars in liquidity to counter signs of dysfunction .
It said it would provide temporary loans to banks in coming weeks to relieve strains as investors sold government bonds to raise cash .
The Fed will also purchase a broader range of government securities than just short-term Treasury bills to make sure the liquidity reaches elements of the market which need it most .
Next up ?
Wall Street economists now say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ makers will cut their benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to zero when they gather next Wednesday .
They may even move before .
It offered the market up to 2.2 trillion yen ( $ 20.7 billion ) in cash injections in three different operations on Friday , while snapping up stock funds for the sixth time this month .
It also pledged to maintain liquidity and keep markets stable this month .
Officials convene next Wednesday and Thursday with people familiar with the matter saying they are likely to show a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as exchange-traded funds .
Whether the BOJ will raise its 6 trillion yen ( $ 58 billion ) ETF-purchasing target remains unclear and could depend on the severity of market conditions at the time of the meeting , the people added .
The Bank of England started Wednesday early by unveiling stimulus including its first emergency rate cut since the financial crisis .
It delivered a half-point reduction to take the key rate to 0.25 % , introduced a new program to provide easy and cheap credit , and reduced a special capital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to lend .
The world ’ s number-two economy cut the amount of cash that banks have to set aside as reserves .
It offered discounts to commercial lenders ’ reserve ratios of a half or 1 percentage point from their original level .
Joint-stock banks will get an additional reduction of 1 percentage point , and together the cuts will release 550 billion yuan ( $ 79 billion ) of liquidity , the PBOC said .
It surprised on Friday by cutting rates by half a percentage point as its economy is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices .
It said it “ stands ready ” to act again and also announced a new facility to acquire money market instruments used by small- and medium-size businesses .
That was the second rate cut in two weeks , and on Thursday it had announced it planned to volley billions of dollars into markets .
Eyes are now turning to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ’ s government for a fiscal effort .
Its central bank used a wide array of market interventions this week to support one of the worst performing currencies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , policy makers intervened using auctions of lines , swap , roll-overs and dollars in spot markets , accumulating sales of around $ 17 billion through separate auctions .
Next week will also come to effect a measure announced on Feb. 20 that freed up to 135 billion reais ( $ 28.2 billion ) in reserve requirements and other prudential measures , allowing increased liquidity to banks .
It lent up to 500 billion kroner ( $ 51 billion ) to banks to maintain the supply of credit to companies .
The measure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of insurance that enables Swedish companies –- particularly small and medium-sized enterprises –- to feel secure that the credit supply will not fail , ” said Governor Stefan Ingves .
Banco de Mexico expanded the maximum amount that could be issued under an existing non-deliverable forward hedge program to $ 30 billion from $ 20 billion on Monday after a steep sell-off in the Mexican peso .
In an effort to increase liquidity and stabilize peso volatility , Banxico acted again on Thursday , auctioning $ 2 billion in hedges .


washingtonpost--2020-03-12--Iconic Club Graced by Rolling Stones Is Rewired for the 21st Century

The latter involves an audacious attempt to retool the modern live-music venue experience .
Aside from incorporating the essentials needed to draw music lovers physically into the “ El Mo ” —like smokin ’ hot sound , excellent sightlines , and classy , photo-ready decor—Wekerle has been thinking outside the box , literally .
The revamped venue has been set up to allow shows to be livestreamed in near-real time , while viewers can gain access to interact with performers on stage and off .
To allow that to happen , the El Mo was gutted to the outside walls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s executive designer and production manager .
Four kilometers ( 2.5 miles ) of cables for sound , lighting , video , and the internet have been hidden behind the tropical and rock ‘ n ’ roll motifs .
The building incorporates state-of-the-art recording and broadcast facilities that will allow anything that happens in the El Mo , including backstage or in dressing rooms , to be livestreamed or packaged on the premises .
Powering the interactivity is second-party platform CYA Live ( pronounced “ See ya live ” ) , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , for free or for a fee , and video chat with performers or other fans .
Wekerle first heard of the company in 2015 when he was a judge on Dragons ’ Den , the Canadian equivalent of Shark Tank .
The pitch from Sami Siddique , the founder and chief executive officer , so impressed Wekerle that he became a primary investor .
“ One way to look at it is that broadcast so far has been one way , ” Siddique says .
“ What we have done is made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can choose anyone from the audience and let them be part of the experience.
” He says CYA Live also is lightning fast , with a “ latency , ” or lag time , of 250 milliseconds , compared with full seconds for many other services .
It can also push content to Facebook , YouTube Live , and other platforms .
The livestreaming industry is on a relentless climb .
The number of hours watched surged 12 % , to 1.19 billion , in December from a year earlier , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and data platform Arsenal.gg .
The coronavirus outbreak , which has confined a growing number of people to their homes this year , should boost the rise .
( During the initial outbreak , one Beijing club livestreamed a five-hour DJ set and received 2 million yuan ( $ 285,000 ) in tips from viewers . )
The El Mocambo Tavern got its start as a restaurant and dance hall in 1948 and went through various incarnations , including a music venue catering to the city ’ s Hungarian community , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ’ 70s , new owners veered into rock and R & B , eventually attracting the Stones , who were looking to prove they could still “ cut it at the club level , ” according the 1997 book Rock and Roll Toronto : From Alanis to Zeppelin .
The band ’ s surprise appearance in March 1977 ( listed as “ The Cockroaches ” ) cemented El Mo ’ s reputation among marquee clubs such as New York ’ s CBGB and the Roxy in Los Angeles .
The shows ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the beloved third side of the double-album Love You Live , while the night itself made for eyebrow-raising tabloid fodder : Margaret Trudeau , wife of the then prime minster of Canada , attended the concerts and hung out with the band at its hotel ; she had secretly separated from her husband the morning of the first show .
After that , it became a sought-after stop in North America .
Blondie , the Ramones , and U2 all played the El Mo .
A high-energy recording of an Elvis Costello @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Canadian audience “ We come here from England to ask for the country back ” —was heavily bootlegged and eventually released commercially in 1993 as Live at the El Mocambo , one of several albums by various artists to be so named .
Wekerle himself remembers going to the club several times as a young man , including once when he was caught after sneaking into a Stevie Ray Vaughan concert because he couldn ’ t easily afford the C $ 20 ticket .
Slated to reopen as early as April 1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feather into the cap of Wekerle , 56 , who gained his street cred as a trader at GMP Capital Inc. from 1995 to 2011 .
He helped build the non-bank brokerage into Canada ’ s second-biggest by generating millions trading oil and mining stocks .
He was involved in taking Research In Motion ( later renamed BlackBerry Ltd. ) public in the late ’ 90s—and personally invested in the company ’ s buildings in Waterloo , Ontario , years later after the smartphone pioneer fell on hard times .
Not everything Wekerle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A foray into backing technology startups at Difference Capital Financial Inc. had mixed successes before it merged with a fintech firm it once backed .
Following the death of Wekerle ’ s wife in March 2010 , an incident in an Arkansas hotel later that year led to a lawsuit that included allegations he had injured a valet and licked a woman ’ s foot ; Wekerle says he probably drank too much .
( The parties settled and the case was dismissed . )
In 2014 , his new Porsche 918 Spyder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ filling up at a gas station .
“ He was really adamant ” that he wanted the sign , Grosso recalls .
“ I said , ‘ If you want to buy it , I ’ ll make you a deal .
I ’ ll sell you the building and the business , and I ’ ll throw the sign in for free.
’ ” For his part , Wekerle recalls making a quick decision to purchase after inspecting the club .
“ I see a Bud Light there , so I took @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , making the sound of a beer being opened .
“ I think about it , and I go , ‘ Alright , I ’ ll buy it.
’ That ’ s as simple as it was.
” Wekerle says he originally thought the whole investment would cost him C $ 12.5 million .
Unfortunately , “ it got a little bit away from me , ” he says more than six years later , sitting in the club ’ s immaculate new dressing room , a glass of white wine in his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ want to skimp on it , you know , I didn ’ t want to do it 80 % .
” Among issues Wekerle ’ s team discovered during the renovations was damage from three separate fires over the club ’ s checkered history , meaning that all the wood had to be removed .
To pull profit out of adversity , some of the lumber that wasn ’ t damaged was sent to Fender Musical Instruments in Arizona to be used to make specialized “ sunburst green ” Stratocasters and Telecasters , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ initially have a capacity of 350 people in the downstairs room , plus 400 in the classier upstairs venue ; a staircase emblazoned with names of some of the acts that have played there connects the two .
Even though the stages will be able to run shows simultaneously , Wekerle admits that conventional sources such as tickets sales may generate only enough to pay salaries and a bit more .
It may also be challenging to attract certain bands , given exclusivity and licensing agreements that restrict where groups can play and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s suggested that the Stones could make a grand return in June , amid concerts scheduled in nearby Buffalo and Cleveland , Wekerle—upbeat , as usual—offers measured optimism.
“ I ’ ve had my hopes set so high on starting this club up , but I ’ ve now learned that you just got to take it as it is , ” says Wekerle , who has an “ It is what it is ” tattoo on his left bicep .
“ Don ’ t set your hopes up too high because @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-06-23--Analysis | Facebook Ad Boycott Is a Worthy Use of Brand Power

If companies are serious about finding ways to champion the Black Lives Matter movement , then surely they know earnest tweets and carefully-worded corporate statements are not enough .
Flexing their corporate muscle to give Facebook a much-needed nudge , though , takes things a step further .
After recent events , Facebook has said it is actively considering revising a number of its policies and products , including reviewing how it handles content that violates or partially violates its rules .
To this point , though , moral overtures from lawmakers and activists haven ’ t dramatically changed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even though staying its course , at this point , is itself something of a political act .
But maybe it would feel more urgency to change if the pressure were financial , not philosophical .
Plus , I like that this particular approach to supporting the Black Lives Matter movement encourages consumer companies to take an action that would be felt outside the walls of their own corporate headquarters .
One of the more common ways of responding to the recent social unrest is for companies to make new commitments around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of PepsiCo Inc. , Gap Inc. and Adidas AG among the companies that have done so .
This is absolutely the right thing to do ; maybe making such overhauls earlier would have led Pepsi to dump the obviously offensive Aunt Jemima brand long before last week .
With a campaign of financial pressure on Facebook , corporate participants are extending their influence outside in a push for key business partners to embrace the same values .
In that way , this effort has something in common with the 15 Percent Pledge , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ commit to ensuring that 15 % of products on their shelves come from Black-owned businesses .
This , too , has the potential to catalyze small changes all throughout the consumer goods supply chain .
Sephora and Rent The Runway have gotten on board with this initiative , and I ’ d urge other big names to do the same .
I suppose consumer brands might resist a temporary flight from Facebook because they believe that , whatever the politics of the moment , it is irresponsible not to do everything they can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after Covid-19-related closures have just dealt their revenues a devastating blow .
However , they should instead think of a Facebook ad hiatus as a way of being on the right side of history while conserving a bit of cash .
If that is not impetus enough , consumer giants should keep in mind that public opinion has shifted dramatically in recent weeks toward supporting the Black Lives Matter movement .
That suggests most brands aren ’ t taking a major reputational risk by asking Facebook to do more .
Of course , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ briefly keeping ad dollars away from Facebook will have much impact .
With Facebook ’ s $ 71 billion in revenue last year , it would take big names and big numbers for this campaign to have even a tiny impact on the social media company ’ s income statement .
And history doesn ’ t offer many good analogies to evaluate whether or not something like this might work .
Still , it ’ s worthwhile for big consumer brands to try .
Cleaning up Facebook would go a long way toward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ America , and big advertisers have unique leverage to try to make it happen .