washingtonpost--2020-03-09--Analysis | Your Instagram Exposes You to Coronavirus Contagion

Online platforms are taking social contagion to new heights , making it harder for people to know where the real risks lie or what the right precautions are to take .
Panic-buying isn ’ t a new phenomenon .
But instant knowledge of the ripple effects from the virus , whether justified or not , turbocharges the panic .
It ’ s a phenomenon we ’ ve never quite experienced on this scale .
When the Spanish flu took hold a century ago , there was initially very little press coverage .
Indeed , it was so named not because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s where the virus ’ s impact was first widely reported .
Censorship imposed during World War I meant the press in France , the U.K. , U.S. and Germany barely covered the disease until late 1918 , when millions were already infected .
Spain was a non-combatant , so newspapers were free to report on the illness that ultimately claimed some 50 million lives globally .
In the era of Covid-19 , the challenge is the inverse : information and misinformation alike are spreading faster than the virus itself , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ endless personal reactions and anecdotes shared far beyond one ’ s closest family and friends .
In one attempt to cut through the noise , Facebook Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg said on Wednesday that the social network would give the World Health Organization free advertising for its response to the disease , and work to remove false claims and conspiracy theories about the virus .
Credit the effort , at least .
Back in 1918 , support for censoring Spanish flu reports stemmed from the medical establishment ’ s view that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ person ’ s emotional state and their physical well-being , historian Mark Honigsbaum has written .
Spreading negativity , it was feared , would not just undermine public morale , but also actively make the general population more likely to contract and succumb to the malady .
These days , medical authorities have different reasons to be circumspect in their public statements .
Not only do they want to avoid provoking a general hysteria , which might keep crucial medical gear and service from those who need it more , but they want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In the midst of the swine flu outbreak of 2009 , England ’ s chief medical officer warned there could be 65,000 fatalities .
In the end , 214 people died .
That has added to “ an erosion of trust and deference ” not only toward experts , but expertise in general , according to Honigsbaum , author of “ The Pandemic Century : One Hundred Years of Panic , Hysteria and Hubris.
” That may result in people being less likely to seek salient expert advice .
In the decade since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news has also changed .
Facebook has grown from 360 million to 2.5 billion users .
Multitudes of people are now rapidly sharing and re-sharing information , not always weighing beforehand how trustworthy or potentially frenzy-feeding it may be .
The fire hose of information has made it harder to know what to trust .
It ’ s not necessarily that people are inclined to believe “ fake news , ” but , because untrustworthy sources are presented in the same way as credible ones , the latter are devalued by association .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that 57 % of Americans expect news they see on social media to be “ largely inaccurate.
” People like and share away irrespective .
Facebook and Twitter Inc. are trying to crack down on misinformation — and to ensure the most trusted information surfaces first for those who search for it — but that ’ s only part of the equation .
The viral nature of real personal experiences or opinions also accentuates panic .
The social networks aren ’ t going to block a photo from a friend , nor should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make you consider rushing out to the supermarket to stock up on toilet paper whether or not you really need to .
The U.S. surgeon general even took to Twitter to urge people to stop buying masks , to ensure there are enough for health care professionals .
There ’ s a strand of social thought called contagion theory , which looks at how ideas , and at times irrational behavior , are spread in a group .
Social networks play on this by generating emotional reactions to content — Facebook invites you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like , love , anger , amazement , laughter or crying emoji .
All emotions you broadcast out to an array of people near and far , encouraging them to do the same .
Social networks are wired to “ stir up emotional engagements and make them contagious , ” according to Tony D. Sampson , a critical theorist and author of the upcoming “ A Sleepwalker ’ s Guide to Social Media.
” It can be detrimental to a whole range of things from politics to health , he says , because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a rapid visceral register of communication rather than reasoned thinking.
” The irony is that , as the epidemic progresses , those advertising their efforts to combat the real-world virus are also perpetuating the digital contagion .
Platforms and health authorities will need to keep playing catch up .


washingtonpost--2020-06-06--Many Beloved Eateries Close as Pandemic Relief Falls Short

The economic pressure from the pandemic is hitting some of the country ’ s top-tier establishments , forcing some to close for good .
The casualties include David Chang ’ s Momofuku in Washington , New York ’ s pioneering Pegu Club cocktail bar and John Fraser ’ s 701 West in the Times Square Edition hotel , which itself is scheduled to close in August .
Although President Donald Trump signed legislation on Friday giving more flexibility for spending the loan money , it may be too little , too late for many establishments .
Loans under the PPP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workers on the payroll , could only be converted into grants if used within eight weeks under initial terms of the program .
“ We couldn ’ t count on that , ” said Marguerite Zabar Mariscal , chief executive officer of Momofuku restaurant group , which also closed Nishi in New York ’ s Chelsea neighborhood .
“ You ’ re looking at the numbers and wishing they added up differently .
And when they don ’ t , the decision is clear , but that doesn ’ t mean we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and their lobbying groups have complained that the program ’ s design doesn ’ t address restaurants ’ real needs as they face financial shortfalls from reopening under occupancy caps and social distancing measures , in addition to their need to cover expenses beyond payroll .
They say hundreds of billions of dollars may still be required to keep enterprises afloat .
The limits of the program could lead to a wave of permanent closures , with some estimates showing a quarter of restaurants could shut permanently .
Trump said Friday that he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to study relief for the sector in the next round of stimulus , which could reach $ 1 trillion .
“ The restaurants will be a little harder to come back , ” the president said at the White House .
“ We ’ re going to be doing things for restaurants and various pieces of the entertainment industry which will be an incentive.
” Despite lawmakers ’ hopes that PPP would bolster hotels and restaurants in particular , the industry has tapped the program at a lower rate than other sectors , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Census data found .
Approved PPP loans have covered 73 % of the industry ’ s eligible payroll compared to 99 % for retail and 94 % for construction .
“ It ’ s more of a mental setback , ” said award-winning chef Robert Wiedmaier , who has several Belgian-inspired restaurants in the Washington area , where a curfew to contain protests in the city began just three nights after the virus lockdown ended , before being lifted Thursday .
“ You got whacked like a Whack-a-Mole right over the head again @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tuck and roll and figure out when we ’ re going to reopen again.
” Under the original terms of the PPP , loans would be forgiven if businesses maintained headcount and salaries and spent at least 75 % of the funds on payroll within eight weeks .
Congress passed a bill to extend the period for spending proceeds to 24 weeks or the end of the year , whichever comes first , and required that only 60 % be spent on payroll .
Other ideas on how to help restaurants still seem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wave of closures .
For example , Trump has floated restoring a tax deduction for business entertainment expenses that was erased by his 2017 tax law , but restaurants have said it won ’ t do enough , and action on any plan doesn ’ t seem imminent .
The chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce also said efforts to change PPP or other tax provisions to help restaurants , hotels and other businesses likely to be hurt by low occupancies might take until July to negotiate .
Despite the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ CEO Ray Blanchette told Bloomberg in an interview that 10 % to 20 % of the Dallas-based company ’ s restaurants would probably close permanently as a result of Covid-19 .
It has 386 U.S. locations and got about $ 14 million through the loan program .
He said that business-interruption insurance could be more helpful than PPP loans -- but insurers have largely refused pandemic payouts , citing policies that excluded losses because of viruses or that focused on property damage .
A bill in Congress would set up a fund to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is just beginning on that issue and could take weeks or months and still fail .

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washingtonpost--2020-05-08--Analysis | Why Malaysia’s Politics Are Messy and What’s at Stake

Two veteran politicians , Mahathir Mohamad and Anwar Ibrahim , pulled off a shocking election victory in 2018 that ousted then-Prime Minister Najib Razak , who was enmeshed in a massive money-laundering scandal linked to the state investment firm 1MDB .
Mahathir , now 94 , became prime minister again ( he held the post from 1981 to 2003 ) , with the understanding that he would hand over to Anwar at some point .
Delays in setting a date -- as well as policy disputes within the unwieldy coalition -- led to tension that boiled over in late February @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interim prime minister .
He then sought to strengthen his hand by forming a unity government outside party politics .
But the king pre-empted his efforts on March 1 by naming Mahathir ’ s erstwhile right-hand man , Muhyiddin Yassin , as Malaysia ’ s eighth prime minister since independence from the U.K. in 1957 .
Mahathir now wants to introduce a no-confidence motion against Muhyiddin in parliament , although it ’ s unclear when or if Mahathir would have enough support to win .
Malaysia is a parliamentary democracy along the lines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one constitutional monarch the title rotates every five years among the rulers of nine Malay states .
The king , known as the Yang di-Pertuan Agong , usually stays on the sidelines performing ceremonial duties , but is involved in major appointments like that of prime minister .
A 72-year-old career politician who rose through the ranks of the once-ruling United Malays National Organisation party .
He was Najib ’ s deputy for six years before he was sacked in July 2015 after calling for greater clarity in the 1MDB investigations .
He @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up a new party , Bersatu , and became home affairs minister in his government .
A cancer survivor who ’ s generally low profile , he ’ s perhaps best known for quipping in 2010 that he considers himself “ Malay first ” and Malaysian second .
Some 56 % of the country ’ s 31 million people are ethnic Malay ( defined in the constitution as Muslim ) , and another 13 % belong to other indigenous groups , according to 2019 estimates from the Department of Statistics Malaysia .
Collectively @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ sons of the soil.
” There are also large ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities who are Christian , Buddhist and Hindu .
Government policies give preferential treatment to bumiputera , traditionally seen as disenfranchised , in such areas as public-sector jobs , housing and higher education .
Critics say the preferences have fostered cronyism and a dependence on state handouts and have prompted many educated minorities to look for work overseas , draining the economy of talent .
But they are something of a “ third rail ” in Malaysia ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Lim Guan Eng as finance minister , the first ethnic Chinese to hold the post in over four decades , sowed suspicion among Malay nationalists that their benefits would be eroded , costing the coalition support .
Mahathir and Anwar , who are also Malay , had campaigned on a “ New Malaysia ” agenda aimed at boosting good governance -- including prosecuting Najib and his wife for corruption .
Mahathir had appointed the country ’ s first female chief justice and lifted bans on previously blacklisted journalists .
The parties in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s UMNO , are supporting a more conservative agenda favoring Malays , including measures to promote a stricter version of Islam .
In a televised address on March 2 , however , Muhyiddin pledged to be prime minister for all races and to strengthen government integrity .
He also said he would pursue shared prosperity goals , referring to a pledge by the coalition he abandoned to promote equitable development and raise living standards .
Despite being backed by Najib ’ s UMNO , his administration managed to arrange the return from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ linked to the 1MDB scandal .
The economy was already slowing before the pandemic hit and now could even see a contraction this year , according to the central bank , as trade and tourism suffer while a lockdown dampens consumption and investment .
( An earlier forecast was for 4.8 % growth . )
The government has rolled out 260 billion ringgit ( $ 60 billion ) in stimulus packages , including a loan-payment moratorium , wage subsidies and cash handouts .
Oil-related earnings also are in decline amid volatile crude prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ undermining the Muhyiddin-led government ’ s capacity to boost infrastructure spending , lift incomes and rein in government debt .
Even before the pandemic , surveys found rising living costs and a lack of jobs had replaced corruption and abuse of power as voters ’ top concerns .
It ’ s not clear yet what Muhyiddin ’ s policy will be .
Malaysia has long been seen as one of Southeast Asia ’ s most stable countries and enjoys relatively warm relations with China , its biggest trading partner .
It is participating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ known as Belt and Road , although Mahathir canceled one deal and renegotiated another last year to cut costs .
While Mahathir has regularly denounced the Trump administration over its trade policies and its Middle East peace plan , the U.S. is Malaysia ’ s largest source of foreign-direct investment .
According to the U.S. State Department , the two countries cooperate closely on security matters , including counterterrorism and regional stability .
With some from the old government back in power , Mahathir has expressed concerns of possible political meddling in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confidence .
Snap elections could be called if the new government proves unstable .
The key stock index , which has been one of the world ’ s worst-performers since the 2018 election , slumped to its lowest since 2011 a day after Muhyiddin ’ s appointment .
The ringgit has been trading around its lowest level in three years .


washingtonpost--2020-03-27--Taxpayer Backing for Fed’s Virus Loans Has Strings Attached

In recent decades , Fed leaders have had an automatic revulsion to anything that pushed them toward fiscal policy such as direct assistance to companies .
When lawmakers asked former Chairman Ben Bernanke if he could loan to automakers during the 2008 financial crisis , his answer was : Sorry , no .
That kind of lending is fraught with political risks and can impact the distribution of wealth in the economy by favoring certain industries over others .
But the virus-induced economic crisis facing the country is upending such policy dogma and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has positioned the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ credit of last resort .
That unprecedented shift will have political consequences and lead to constrained independence on Fed direct lending , economists said.
“ They are going to be watched ; every move they make is going to be watched , ” said Julia Coronado , founding partner of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC in New York .
“ They are going to want to work closely with the Senate Banking and House Financial Services committees ” which oversee the Fed .
So far , several of the Fed ’ s facilities targeting markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Exchange Stabilization Fund for a loss-absorbing cushion against risk .
There are few constraints on that money .
The Fed can move quickly and backstop markets any way it wants with the only precaution being not to lose money with market or credit risk .
Lawmakers have earmarked an additional $ 454 billion in taxpayer funds to give the Fed even more firepower for existing market programs and to start direct lending .
In theory , those funds could be leveraged up to $ 4.5 trillion by the central bank .
Those funds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uses the money .
There is also an unusual flexibility clause for the Fed that may be politically risky .
The bill specifically grants the Fed discretion for a Main Street Lending Facility , while putting strict guidelines around the Treasury Secretary ’ s lending to mid-size companies , which lawmakers define as those with 500 to 10,000 employees .
These would , among other things , prohibit sending U.S. jobs overseas and demand companies retain at least 90 % of their workforce at full pay with benefits .
The Fed is working @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has yet to publish any details .
That presents the Fed with an dilemma : even though the Fed may not be obliged to abide by these restrictions , evading them may spark lawmakers ’ ire .
“ Fiscal policies are for legislators to decide , ” said Mark Spindel , co-author of a book about the Fed ’ s relationship with Congress .
“ I don ’ t think he is independent here , ” he said , referring to Powell ’ s use of taxpayer funds to expand direct Fed lending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t act independently of what the law is directing the Treasury Secretary to do.
” But Gilbert Schwartz , a partner at Schwartz & Ballen and a former Fed lawyer , said if Congress wanted the Fed to abide by restrictions they would have written the law that way .
“ Congress knows how to write the statute , ” he said , while noting that Mnuchin can impose whatever conditions he wants to the funds Treasury provides the Fed .
Loaning to potentially thousands of medium-sized businesses , likely done with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a gigantic undertaking and perhaps make this the largest Fed facility ever .
That would probably involve its 12 regional branches , who have deep knowledge of businesses in their districts .


washingtonpost--2020-03-28--Analysis | For Introverts, Quarantine Can Be a Liberation

But introverts have in recent years begun a campaign to change that narrative : not to seize power from the extroverts , mind you , but simply to be accepted as also having something valuable to offer .
Because they do .
The campaign started with a now classic essay by my former Economist colleague Jonathan Rauch .
It continued with a bestseller and TED talk by the author Susan Cain .
There ’ s a lot of confusion about what introversion and extroversion are .
The definitions of these personality types , which originated in the work of Carl @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being shy or being a leader ( introverts may or may not be , just like anybody else ) .
Instead , the difference lies in what , cognitively , somebody finds stimulating as opposed to exhausting .
Introverts are the opposite .
They ’ re drained by the random noise of small talk , fatigued by the fluid kinetics of a cocktail party , dazed by people speaking before they think in allegedly creative brainstorming sessions .
To recharge their batteries , introverts need to be alone , or with a few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like thinking , reading , tinkering or discussing something in depth .
And good things can be found when going deep .
Now what is the essence of quarantine ?
“ Social distancing , ” of course .
To an extrovert , that ’ s an oxymoron .
To an introvert , it ’ s the ideal state .
To put it flippantly , it ’ s the near-complete cessation of small talk , and a rare opportunity to concentrate .
Moreover , social distancing doesn ’ t necessarily mean disconnection , certainly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But unlike an open-plan office , Zoom can be turned off .
Introverts in quarantine are thus less likely than extroverts to feel deflated , isolated or bored , and more likely to be energized , perhaps welcoming the lack of distraction to go deep into , well , whatever .
Solitude can make people creative .
Take John Keats , one of England ’ s greatest poets .
Apparently an introvert , he was already sick from tuberculosis in 1820 at the age of 24 , when during a trip to Naples @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a boat offshore for 10 days .
He spent the time writing moving letters and a memoir of his childhood .
Or consider another introvert , Isaac Newton ( who later in life rarely mingled with students , or anybody ) .
He was at Cambridge University when , in 1665-66 , the bubonic plague broke out .
Like schools and universities today , Cambridge closed and sent its students home .
Newton was stuck on his family estate in rural Lincolnshire .
Except that “ stuck ” isn ’ t the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like it .
Young Newton spent endless hours alone in nature , in pensive absorption .
Once he saw an apple fall from a tree , and realized that it responded to the same force as the moon orbiting the earth , which led him to a theory of gravity .
He also observed light in its many colors and began thinking about optics .
And he applied his logic to nature in a way that led him to pioneer calculus .
What was actually a quarantine historians now call Newton ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Mind you , I ’ m not planning to discover new branches of physics or math in this anxious time of Covid-19 .
Being introverted , unfortunately , doesn ’ t also mean being a genius .
Nonetheless , I suspect that during these lockdowns across the world , there ’ s an introvert here and there who ’ s right now applying her undivided attention , creativity and productivity to composing a symphony , conceiving an algorithm , painting a canvas or writing a book .
Or simply spending uninterrupted time with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , extroverts can be doing the same thing , for as Jung always emphasized , nobody is purely one type or the other .
At some point — the sooner the better — the coronavirus will recede , leaving all of us , introverts and extroverts , in peace again to mingle .
Until then , we might as well assume that something good may yet come out of this time .


washingtonpost--2020-05-10--Analysis | Negative Oil Is Positive for Clean Power

Less than a month on , oil continues to back up in the system , and price signals are starting to do their job : forcing wells to shut in .
There ’ s an inherent lag to this .
Producers are reluctant , fearing a well may never flow properly again .
Corporate structures built atop the well , ranging from contracted pipeline space to debt covenants , also encourage keeping the flow going .
Electricity markets deal with this issue frequently for the simple reason storage isn ’ t usually an option ; storing electrons at scale remains @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in real time , and the increasing penetration of renewable energy complicates that , as the sun shines when it shines and the wind blows when it blows .
Moreover , without fuel to burn , the marginal cost of wind and solar power is effectively zero — or less due to subsidies — meaning it can make sense to simply offload negatively priced electrons .
Covid-19 provides an extreme reminder of the risks of taking demand growth for granted in the face of climate change and a backlash against globalization .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is its killer app at almost 60 % of demand .
Electrification is encroaching on that .
While cheaper oil supports demand , it won ’ t create whole new forms of consumption .
Electricity has an inherent edge in that respect : Spare electrons tend to invade or even create markets .
Back in the 1930s , building the colossal Grand Coulee hydroelectric dam on the Columbia River was regarded as “ insane , ” given the lack of demand for power in the then-sparsely populated Pacific Northwest ( 1 ) .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ decade , the dam ’ s output was smelting enough aluminum to build half the U.S. Air Force .
Grand Coulee ’ s example urges us to think about energy in an age of ample supply but uncertain demand — the opposite of the 20th century experience .
This involves an increasing amount of competition between molecules and electrons , where there are important functional differences .
A barrel of oil isn ’ t a product in its own right ; it ’ s an input to other processes .
Even free oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ needs physical transformation to be useful .
Electrons , meanwhile , arrive at an end user ready to go — a finished input into lighting , refrigeration , data processing , arc welding , whatever , and no matter what the scale .
It ’ s as useful to an aluminum smelter as to a Tesla as to an electric toothbrush .
This flexibility extends to curtailing or reassigning electricity supply , which can be done without nearly the same stress on the system as for oil .
A power plant can reduce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or give away its output .
There is a cost involved and technical constraints on ramping up and down for coal and nuclear plants in particular .
But no one says the plant can ’ t ever come back on ( unless it just doesn ’ t pay to do so ) .
Plus , there is inherent flexibility and resiliency in a connected grid with multiple generation sources .
Power demand , too , can flex to absorb supply and even shape its demand curve to match , as Google demonstrated last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil demand , outside of simply not driving under lockdown , takes far longer ; the average U.S. vehicle is on the road for almost 12 years .
At the heart of all this are emissions and climate change , where inertia will ultimately undo us .
There is now real potential for abundant , zero-emission electrons to compete with fossil fuels .
Earlier this year , BloombergNEF published its analysis of how electricity can displace hydrocarbons in Europe ’ s transport , buildings , and industrial sectors and cut greenhouse gas emissions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ decades .
Doing so would require 75 % more capacity , but much of that would be renewables , now the cheapest new source of power generation for countries hosting two-thirds of the global population , 71 % of its GDP and 85 % of all electricity generation .
We mentioned earlier that the intermittency of renewable energy poses complications for grids .
But the relative predictability of supply and demand and the inherent flexibility of networked power means it ’ s a complication grids turn out to handle quite easily .
Falling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entirely , obviating the need for some peaking power capacity and creating trading opportunities .
Building more renewable capacity to , say , displace internal combustion engines represents a huge investment .
But it is also scalable ; built relatively quickly in modular fashion to match demand .
Conversely , you can ’ t drill 10 % of a deepwater oil well and see how it goes ; it ’ s a one-shot affair relying on a multi-decade demand and price projection .
One reason the majors eventually muscled into shale was because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investment in domestic power is well-suited to post-Covid economic recovery plans and increasingly fractious energy geopolitics .
While we worry about the fragility of petro-states , electro-states aren ’ t even a thing .
Oil demand ( and pricing ) will recover from April ’ s nadir , though the extent and timing remain up for debate .
Even so , the oil system ’ s inertia — physical , economic , political — in the face of change is much clearer .
And change for energy is now a constant .


washingtonpost--2020-05-10--Analysis | The Price of Covid Freedom May Be Eternal Spying

Blame the coming end of privacy on success .
South Korea and Taiwan have won acclaim for flattening the Covid-19 curve by digitally tracking infected persons .
As my colleague Anjani Trivedi described in March , no government was using dispersed databases as extensively to fight the spread of the disease as Seoul .
Before an explosive outbreak in its worker dormitories , Singapore earned praise for TraceTogether , which claims to be the first Bluetooth contact-tracing app covering an entire nation .
The 1.4 million users represent roughly a fourth of the island ’ s population .
It hasn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of such software are in East Asia where , as MIT Sloan School of Management professor Yasheng Huang and others note , “ a collectivist spirit may encourage civic-minded embrace of and a more willing compliance with governments ’ infection control.
” But while cultural differences can help explain the beginning , the end game may be more universal : power and profit .
Safely restarting economies will require governments to restore trust in people mingling in factories , offices , cafes and trains .
It can supposedly be done with data more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cellphone networks .
Hence states want access to phones , with or without informed consent .
Turning the clock back will be hard , if not impossible .
Take India ’ s Aarogya Setu , or Bridge of Health , Covid-19 contact-tracing app .
It ’ s got privacy warriors worried because the country lacks a data protection framework .
Among other things , activists want the government to ensure that “ any data collected in an external server is designed to be deleted and that it won ’ t be integrated with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ working paper by the New Delhi-based Internet Freedom Foundation .
For now , there are only assurances that the app will wither away once the outbreak is contained , but no legal guarantees .
The Singaporean app records physical proximity in an anonymized form on smartphones .
Minimal data is stored on servers .
Only if a user falls sick are his contacts tracked and alerted .
Given that it ’ s been less than two years since the revelation that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong ’ s health records were hacked , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experiment as foolproof .
But it ’ s at least a voluntary exchange .
India ’ s app is anything but .
As the country tentatively reopens after a 43-day lockdown , it ’ s been made mandatory — first for public-sector employees and now for private-sector workers .
Company bosses are liable to ensure their workers download the app , though nobody is accountable for misuse of data .
TraceTogether ’ s building blocks are in the public domain .
The source code of Aarogya Setu is yet to be opened .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ security researcher ’ s claim that the privacy of 90 million Indians is at stake .
Hours later , the so-called ethical hacker who goes by the name of Elliott Anderson tweeted that five people were feeling unwell in Prime Minister Narendra Modi ’ s office .
Where boundaries between private and public are thin to begin with , a pandemic can make them disappear .
A New York Times analysis of China ’ s Alipay Health Code software , which mixes a cocktail of data to color-code a person ’ s health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shared with the police .
The digital prowess of Alibaba Group Ltd. or its rival , Tencent Holdings Ltd. , has no match in India .
But firms are eager to harness the online footprints of the country ’ s 1.3 billion people .
Covid-19 might give those plans a fillip .
Just as the Sept. 11 attacks irrevocably shrank personal freedoms as security-at-all-costs became a policy driver , Covid-19 will erode privacy in the name of public health .
The potential market is immense for instruments far more intrusive than Big Brother @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a computer engineering professor at Clemson University in South Carolina , told Bloomberg News : “ If the ability to track social contacts exists to stop a contagion , I can guarantee you it will be used to track the spread of dissent.
” An Israeli court verdict that banned Shin Bet , the internal security agency , from using its Covid-19 tracking app shows the discomfort societies have with handing over a shiny , new lever of control to governments .
Europe ’ s data protection laws will try to ensure that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ information is conducted with accountability , and for a limited purpose .
The British parliament ’ s human rights committee says it isn ’ t convinced that the National Health Service ’ s proposed tracing app protects privacy .
The bottom line : Where they exist , robust institutions could still offer resistance .
In most other places , the individual ’ s autonomy has already become a virus casualty .
Poorer countries where consumers have only recently started going online will see states insist on devices that come with pre-loaded tracking apps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ servers than epidemiologists have asked for or need .
But who will stop the juggernaut ?


washingtonpost--2020-05-12--Fed ETF Purchases, China Soybeans, Argentine Debt: Eco Day

• The Fed is designing its lending program for U.S. states and cities in a way that will likely deter cash-strapped governments from using it • U.S. small-business owners are more pessimistic about their revenue outlook than at any point in decades , even as a greater share anticipate the recession will be brief • The U.S. economy may shrink this quarter by the most since the 1940s , according to Bloomberg Economics ’ Recovery Tracker • China is stepping up purchases of soybeans from the U.S. as Brazilian sales start to wane and the Asian nation seeks to meet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Washington , according to people familiar with the matter • Senator Ted Cruz said he plans to introduce legislation on Tuesday that aims to end U.S. reliance on China for rare earth elements • The next housing crisis is here , and this time , it ’ s about rentals .
Across the U.S. , landlords and tenants are wrangling over next month ’ s rent while an approaching avalanche of evictions threatens to bury them both • President Donald Trump and allies are holding off on more coronavirus-related stimulus as his team @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trillion already poured into the economy , but they may find themselves under more pressure to act again if efforts to reopen the economy don ’ t rapidly bear fruit • Argentina extended the deadline for bondholders to consider a $ 65 billion restructuring offer , buying time for more talks after the government failed to win enough support to reach a deal For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com


washingtonpost--2020-05-12--House Democrats Unveil $3 Trillion Aid Bill With Cash for States

Even if the bill passes the House , it may take until June or later before any new deal is struck .
No formal negotiations have taken place since the last relief bill was passed , though Trump chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow has said he ’ s talking with lawmakers of both parties on priorities .
Democrats also propose providing $ 1,200 in cash payments to individuals and $ 1,200 for dependent children -- up to $ 6,000 per household -- at a cost of $ 599 billion .
The bill would make dependent children up to the age @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to complaints that college students were left out of the earlier round .
It would also allow undocumented immigrants to receive payments .
One of the provisions that has been highlighted by Pelosi is $ 200 billion to fund what Democrats describe as “ hazard pay ” for essential workers who ’ ve had to risk exposure to the virus as they stay on the job while much of the rest of the country has been shut down .
The House bill wouldn ’ t add additional funding for the popular Paycheck Protection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would extend the program to Dec. 31 from June 30 and make other changes regarding which firms are eligible and how loan proceeds can be spent .
The loans become grants if they ’ re spent on payroll and certain expenses within eight weeks after they ’ re received to keep workers employed .
Many restaurants and other firms had complained that eight weeks wasn ’ t practical because they won ’ t be reopened or back 100 % during that time , and the House bill would extend the period to 24 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dec. 31 , whichever is earlier .
The bill would also allow firms to rehire workers by the end of the year rather than by June 30 to qualify for loan forgiveness.The proposal would also extend the loans to a greater array of nonprofits , including local tourism bureaus that have suffered alongside the travel industry , as well as some trade associations , professional organizations , chambers of commerce and other groups .
Individual physical locations of newspaper publisher groups , radio stations and TV broadcasters would also be eligible when they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Administration rules .
To ensure the smallest firms get funding , the House measure would set aside at least 25 % of remaining funds for businesses with 10 and fewer employees -- and devote any returned or canceled loan amounts to those firms -- plus 25 % for nonprofits .
It would also provide an additional $ 10 billion for grants through the separate SBA Economic Injury Disaster Loan program .
The bill would greatly expand a tax credit included in the last virus relief package that gives employers tax breaks for keeping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ version would give employers a credit worth up to $ 12,000 per employee per quarter , an increase of $ 5,000 per worker for the remainder of the year .
The credit would be a more targeted way to help workers than Trump ’ s idea to cut payroll taxes , according to proponents .
The legislation also makes a technical tweak to the treatment of forgiven Paycheck Protection Program loans that could deliver billions of dollars in tax savings to small businesses .
The legislation would allow companies to deduct the payroll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PPP loans covered .
The IRS had ruled that those expenses are not deductible if the loan is forgiven .
The plan also includes some political priorities for Democrats from before the pandemic .
It would suspend the cap on state and local tax , or SALT , deductions for two years .
Trump ’ s 2017 tax law imposed a $ 10,000 cap on those tax breaks , which Democrats , particularly those from high-tax New York and New Jersey , have been seeking to repeal since the law passed .
Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that would only help the wealthy.The legislation would partially repeal a tax break included in the last rescue plan that would allow businesses to use losses to offset profits to generate a refund from the Internal Revenue Service .
That provision has since garnered scrutiny from some Democrats who say it ’ s a giveaway to corporations and the wealthy , though the measure wasn ’ t controversial when it passed in March .
For families with children , the bill increases the current $ 2,000 child tax credit to $ 3,600 for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 3,000 for children age 6 to 17 .
The additional money would be sent upfront to families , instead of making them wait until next tax season to claim it .
In one example of Democrats using the wide-ranging package to reach beyond the immediate response to the pandemic , it includes a safe harbor provision for banks that provide services to cannabis companies , something long sought by the industry .
Banks would be shielded from prosecution under federal drug laws for serving the now cash-based sector in states where the @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-05-18--Central Banks Have Let the Genie Out of the Bottle

Japan headed into its lockdown hobbled by poor choices , chiefly an ill-timed hike in the consumption tax at the end of 2019 .
Gross domestic product fell an annualized 3.4 % in the first quarter from the prior three months , the government said Monday , following a drop of 7.3 % from October to December .
The contraction in the second quarter will be about 22 % , according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News , mirroring the scale of declines in the rest of the world.Everyone is reeling from Covid-19 .
What makes Japan stand out isn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but the long funk that preceded what ’ s likely to become the worst global downturn in a century .
The Bank of Japan had been buttressing its economy with massive stimulus long before the Federal Reserve , Bank of England and European Central Bank embarked on a course of ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing in the wake of the Great Recession .
It took that trio a long time to withdraw their support ; they had barely disembarked before the virus prompted them to dive back in.Given diminishing hopes for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s wishful thinking for central bankers to set expectations for a brisk exit from at least some Covid-era measures .
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a May 13 speech that some programs will be put back in the box once the crisis has passed .
He may be waiting a while , if the global financial crisis is any guide .
Output is likely to remain well below pre-virus levels until at least the end of 2021 .
In his address last week to the Peterson Institute for International Economics , Powell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the American economy to the kind of blues playing in Japan since the early 1990s .
The bulk of the Fed ’ s unparalleled support for the economy is likely to remain if Powell is serious about avoiding the nightmare he sketched : “ The loss of thousands of small- and medium-sized businesses across the country would destroy the life ’ s work and family legacy of many business… Prolonged recession and weak recovery could also discourage business investment and expansion , further limiting the resurgence of jobs as well as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of technological advancement .
The result could be an extended period of low productivity growth and stagnant incomes.
” Powell is alluding to “ Japanification , ” according to Roberto Perli , a former Fed economist now tracking monetary policy at Cornerstone Macro in Washington , D.C .
The term has come to encompass a multitude of sins , but at the core it refers to a prolonged stretch of low investment , low productivity , stagnant incomes and microscopic interest rates .
This almost certainly means a commitment to near-zero levels for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Japan has shown the way .
Last year was an ignominious anniversary of zero rates , once seen as a piece of local exotica , along with quantitative easing .
Successive BOJ governors found it almost impossible to extricate themselves from ever-more innovative measures to spur growth and prices .
Haruhiko Kuroda , who has led the central bank since 2013 , tried to lay the groundwork for a gradual withdrawal in 2018 .
Trade wars and the coronavirus have conspired against him .
A meaningful step back may never happen .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ records of recent policy meetings show .
The quantitative easing that the Fed first undertook in late 2008 was revived a couple of times in ensuing years .
America ’ s central bank put it aside in 2014 , only to resume in March when the pandemic began rippling through the U.S. Once the capability is there , investors become accustomed to low-cost financing and freak out when they conclude officials are preparing to reverse course .
Such a backlash in 2013 , known as the taper tantrum , forced then-Fed Chair Ben @ @ @ @ @ @ @ scale back bond purchases .
More recently , market gyrations the during the U.S.-China trade conflict last year foreshadowed three cuts in interest rates ; just months earlier , the Fed was talking about rate increases .
Its easy to forget , but there was a time when beltway intellectuals and masters of the universe fixated on the idea that Japan ’ s economic model was superior and the country would one day rule the commercial world .
Time to start watching Japan closely again , this time for a lesson on inevitable @ @


washingtonpost--2020-05-18--Analysis | China’s Finance World Opens Up to Foreigners, Sort Of

China is allowing full foreign ownership of life insurers , futures and mutual fund companies this year -- in stages .
Foreign ownership caps for securities firms came off April 1 as part of the trade agreement signed with the U.S. in January .
China also pledged to take no longer than 90 days to decide on applications from electronic-payment service providers , including for wholly foreign-owned operations .
Regulators cleared the way for full takeovers of local banks by foreigners in 2019 , a year after it eased ownership caps .
Foreign companies can now also be lead underwriters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can control wealth management firms , pension fund managers and inter-dealer brokers .
The Shanghai-London Stock Connect officially kicked off in June 2019 , allowing companies listed on one bourse to trade shares on the other .
( Almost a year later , however , only a single company had taken advantage of it . )
An earlier program linked Hong Kong with the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges .
China ’ s $ 45 trillion financial services industry .
Even a sliver can be lucrative .
Before the pandemic , Bloomberg Intelligence estimated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or change of course -- foreign banks and securities companies could be raking in profits of more than $ 9 billion a year in China by 2030 .
Wealth management firms are looking at a market poised to reach $ 30 trillion in assets by 2023 , according to consultancy Oliver Wyman .
Guo Shuqing , China ’ s chief banking regulator , sees significant room for foreign investors : They held just 1.6 % of banking assets and 5.8 % of the insurance market as of May 2019 , he said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , for example , the foreign share of Chinese banking assets was 2.3 % .
The threat of financial decoupling looms with the Trump administration looking at restrictions on U.S. investments in Chinese companies and financial markets , a possible new front in the trade war as relations sour again over the coronavirus .
( China declared it would continue to open markets and encourage foreign investment . )
There are also plenty of hidden barriers , including the challenge of cracking a market dominated by government-controlled rivals that have longstanding relationships with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ application process also can be a deterrence .
Visa , for example , has been waiting since 2015 .
On top of all that , China ’ s gross domestic product shrank the most on a quarterly basis since at least 1992 as the world struggles with the pandemic .
They ’ re being slowly added to widely followed global benchmarks , including stock indexes by MSCI Inc. and FTSE Russell and , for bonds , the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index and JPMorgan ’ s GBI-EM indexes .
That ’ s expected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in purchases initially from funds that track those gauges .
Bumpy .
In late 2019 MSCI said it wouldn ’ t add any more yuan-denominated shares until China fixed long-standing concerns over market access .
And not every opening is met with enthusiasm : Foreign investors had bought only a third of the total allotment at the time regulators scrapped the quota system for Chinese stocks and bonds in September .
Market turbulence in recent years , including major stock sell-offs , has dampened interest .
Some investors also worry about being unable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s capital controls .
( The government has long kept a tight grip on money flowing in and out so as to preserve the value of its currency , the yuan . )
The benefits may be twofold : U.S. President Donald Trump accuses China of being a one-sided beneficiary of global commerce , so opening up makes the trade seem more balanced .
And Chinese leaders have long described the moves as a useful way to improve the competitiveness of the domestic industry -- without challenging its dominance -- as well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attract foreign investment .
Central bank governor Yi Gang has described the moves as “ prudent , cautious , gradualist .
”


washingtonpost--2020-05-18--Analysis | Vaccine Developers Like Moderna Need to Take Their Time

Eight patients who received low and medium doses of the Moderna ’ s candidate vaccine appear to have developed antibodies capable of neutralizing the new coronavirus .
The company didn ’ t have detailed data on the rest of the 45 trial participants , but all generated at least some antibodies .
It was early data from a small study , though , and the limited results don ’ t prove that the vaccine provides broad and durable protection .
Also , while there were no serious safety issues , three patients who received the highest dose of the vaccine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after their second injection .
For this vaccine to succeed , tests ahead will need to demonstrate that it can indeed protect people from Covid-19 for an extended period , and that it will prevent substantially more harm than it causes .
The bar is especially high for vaccines , because they ’ re given to healthy people — a Covid-19 vaccine , in particular , could be given to billions of healthy people .
Of course , there ’ s pressure to move quickly .
But some parts of the vaccine development @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Moderna and other companies that have created vaccine candidates in record time have been able to speed early stages of the process — for instance , by compressing animal experiments — and they plan to keep hurrying by testing higher-risk patients earlier than usual and by starting more extensive efficacy trials while smaller safety studies are still running .
The Trump administration ’ s new Operation Warp Speed aims to help by building significant manufacturing capacity for candidate vaccines even before they prove successful .
One way to try to move faster is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is , to measure certain biomarkers of the drug ’ s effectiveness rather than wait for hard data from patient outcomes .
You might look , for example , at the number of antibodies that subjects generate after trying the vaccine .
This evidence can demonstrate which specific candidates or doses are worth pushing forward .
However , it isn ’ t enough for approval .
Only clinical data from a large and varied population can establish how much protection a vaccine can safely provide , and for how long .
Such trials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much needs to happen before the data are complete .
It could take months for enough of the subjects who are given placebos to be infected with the coronavirus — to demonstrate by comparison the vaccine ’ s effectiveness .
And public health efforts may inadvertently slow this process , if they are able to delay or minimize a second wave of the disease .
Human challenge trials , in which healthy volunteers are deliberately exposed to a virus in order to assess a vaccine rapidly , could also speed things up by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Even so , it makes sense to run trials on a diverse set of possible vaccines , ranging from Moderna ’ s novel RNA-based option to more traditional inactivated viruses .
Multiple good alternatives are going to be needed to meet the historic challenge of inoculating the world against Covid-19 , and some will turn out to be easier to manufacture and distribute than others .
Vaccine studies need to be large especially to establish safety .
Immune systems vary enormously from person to person , which means that it ’ s easy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an occasional adverse reaction .
Cutting corners on clinical trials boosts the risk that bad reactions could emerge as use expands .
Moderna ’ s early safety data reveal nothing that would prevent broad use of its vaccine .
In future trials , including a large pivotal test scheduled to begin in July , the company plans to use a middle-size dose , which should theoretically lower the risk of side effects .
But if this dose produces anything worse than scattered and transient unpleasant symptoms , the vaccine may not be approvable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how much safety data is enough , based on input from both research scientists and clinicians .
Despite the world ’ s urgent need , this reasoning will need to be guided by the evidence as it comes in , not by any wished-for calendar date .


washingtonpost--2020-04-25--Analysis | Coronavirus Has Popped the Boeing and Airbus Bubble

There ’ s likely to be more to come .
The global aviation industry is being hollowed out by the prospect of international and domestic travel grinding mostly to a halt for 18 months or so : The International Air Transport Association expects traffic to decline by 48 % this year because of the coronavirus .
One of the first places airlines will look to make savings will be in their multi-billion dollar capital expenditure budgets — in other words , in the plane manufacturers ’ revenue .
Even that won ’ t be enough to save many carriers without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slice of revenue for Airbus and Boeing is the single-aisle jets like the 737 and A320 used primarily by budget carriers .
Discount airlines are probably the ones least likely to get bailouts from governments , which often own stakes in competing , and ailing , flag-carriers .
Without the extraordinarily large orders for such aircraft entered in recent years by the likes of PT Lion Mentari Airlines , AirAsia Group Bhd.
, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. , EasyJet Plc , Vietjet Aviation JSC , Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA , and Flydubai , manufacturers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ empty .
Boeing and Airbus have tended to shrug off the risk of one of these customers going belly-up .
That ’ s because the multi-decade project to design and build a new aircraft isn ’ t driven so much by a poll of airlines , as models of where the entire aviation industry is heading .
Both aerospace manufacturers put out annual 20-year market forecasts , shaped by deep macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth , people ’ s propensity to travel as incomes rise , and urban population changes .
For @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do remarkably well .
Boeing ’ s 2000 outlook estimated that global traffic in 2019 would amount to 8.06 trillion revenue passenger-kilometers ; in 2018 , the actual number was 8.16 trillion RPKs .
( 1 ) That impressive track record has led to hubris .
If you believe air travel demand has a mathematical relationship to economic growth and airline services will be made available wherever potential demand exists , then there ’ s no reason to worry if an airline with hundreds of planes on order goes out of business .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ carrier to take its place , or the orders will be shifted to some other part of the world .
Dig into the detail , though , and the outlooks are often no more accurate than you ’ d expect a 20-year forecast to be .
Boeing in 2000 expected that the top three “ domestic ” markets of North America , Europe , and China would account for about a third of global traffic growth over the coming two decades .
In fact , they ’ ve made up almost three-quarters of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most dramatic in relation to fleet growth .
The number of jumbo jets like the Boeing 747 and Airbus A380 currently in passenger service is fewer than were flying back in 1999 , and roughly half the 1,184 Boeing predicted back in 2000 .
Small regional jets have also fallen from favor as the A320 and 737 have swallowed up more than two-thirds of the market .
The failure of heavy twin-aisle jets like the A340 and A380 is hard to separate from the expectation two decades ago that they were a growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out badly ?
One area is the assumption that demand for air travel keeps going up at a fairly constant rate in relation to GDP growth , even as economies become wealthy .
That view was questionable at the best of times — even rich people don ’ t like to spend every waking hour on long-haul flights .
It looks even more so in a world where the long shadow of Covid-19 will cause people to take their leisure closer to home , and where quarantine barriers could be in place for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financial backbone of full-service carriers , will also face existential questions as companies assess how their white-collar staff have coped through a global lockdown .
Travel tends to increase in tandem with trade ; that would suggest weaker prospects , too , in a post-Trump , post-coronavirus era .
Aircraft pay off their vast development expense not in the first year , but over the entire time that planes are being manufactured .
Almost a decade after its first delivery , the 787 Dreamliner still has more than $ 20 billion of such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as more planes are sold .
Right now , it ’ s the unlimited demand for the A320 and 737 that ’ s bailing the manufacturers out of the mistakes they made with the A380 , A340 and 787 .
Should that start to stutter , they ’ re in for problems that — like those forecasts — could last decades .


washingtonpost--2020-04-25--Analysis | Coronavirus Has Exposed the EU’s Creeping Irrelevance

Covid-19 was only just arriving from Asia when the European Commission , with the technocratic equivalent of fanfare , announced a “ Conference on the Future of Europe , ” to be kicked off in May .
Now , of course , the various seminars , committees and working groups are in lockdown limbo .
And the conference title suddenly seems exceptionally ill-chosen .
For it raises the question : Does the EU , in the long term , even have a future ?
And yet , many Europeans increasingly have their doubts .
The Brits volunteered to leave the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ morgues fill with coffins in Bergamo , Madrid and elsewhere , others no longer find that choice so outlandish .
A survey conducted in March by Tecnè found that 67 % of Italians view their membership in the EU as a disadvantage .
The prime minister of Spain isn ’ t alone in warning that , short of a political miracle , “ we will fail as a union.
” *****That ’ s because one side effect of Covid-19 has been to blow away the pretense of solidarity among the 27 states .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ treaties of the European project in the 1950s , been the implicit glue binding its members into an “ ever closer union.
” It was eventually supposed to lead to a common identity in a United States of Europe .
“ We caught a glimpse of the abyss , ” admitted Ursula von der Leyen , the president of the European Commission , alluding to an unravelling of the union .
So the EU ’ s members quickly lifted their export bans again .
But only after China and Russia , of all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ masks and other gear to Italy before any European country did .
Since then , eurocrats have reverted to standard Brussels ways , promising vague and complicated but rhetorically impressive measures yet to come , from “ coronabonds ” to “ a Marshall Plan for Europe.
” This doubles down on a decades-old misunderstanding : that there ’ s some technical kludge that will fix all this , to be found in more rounds of late-night summitry .
The EU ’ s problem is at once bigger and simpler .
It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dilemma : Are they ready to pool ( meaning cede ) their sovereignty to join into one entity , strong enough to stare down the U.S. , China , Russia and maybe a coronavirus ?
Or do they want to remain a club of independent nations , acting in unison only when it suits all of them ?
*****As it happens , there is a surprisingly precise historical analogy for this dilemma .
For centuries , a similar union sprawled across central Europe , called the Holy Roman Empire .
As Voltaire famously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an empire ( or holy , or Roman ) , just as the EU isn ’ t really a union .
Sovereignty was shared between the elected emperor ( usually a Habsburg in Vienna ) and several hundred independent princes , kings and bishops .
The empire , like today ’ s EU , gradually became an anachronism .
In the 16th to 18th centuries , England , France and Spain centralized and became major powers , whereas the empire remained decentralized and weak .
Today the U.S. and China are heading toward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nationalist powers like Russia and Turkey are vying for their spheres of influence , whereas the EU is trying desperately to stick to its post-national multilateralism .
The Holy Roman Empire also failed to resolve its internal rivalries , especially between Prussia and Austria .
Similarly , the EU today is divided by bitter rifts between north and south , west and east .
If anything , today ’ s divisions cut even deeper , because Europe also defines itself as a beacon of democracy , human rights and rule of law .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the EU loses its raison d ’ etre .
That ’ s why a tin-pot dictator like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban undermines the whole edifice .
He has already largely neutered Hungary ’ s opposition , courts and press , and last month he took the pandemic as his pretext to rule by decree .
Poland , ruled by a nationalist and populist party , isn ’ t quite as bad , but has also been dismantling , piece by little piece , the rule of law .
The EU seems paralyzed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ I have been dreaming of a ‘ United States of Europe ’ for years , ” tweeted Matteo Renzi , a former Italian prime minister , which is why he wants the EU to “ expel Hungary from the Union.
” Trouble is , the EU has no mechanism for expulsion , and requires unanimity even to sanction a member .
And Poland , Hungary and their ilk have each other ’ s back .
In exactly the same way , individual members can block the EU from solving any other problem .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the refugee crisis of 2015-16 .
But a few nations , including Hungary and Poland again , balked at all attempts to reform Europe ’ s dysfunctional , and nation-based , asylum system , in defiance of the union ’ s top court .
So the EU still has no common migrant policy , just as another refugee crisis looms .
On it goes , down the list of problems that could be solved by a United States of Europe , but won ’ t be solved by this EU .
The currency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be a “ convergence machine ” but has instead led to “ divergence and polarization ” between a core of export powerhouses like Germany and a periphery of debt-financed laggards like Italy .
A full fiscal union with massive redistribution might fix this , but won ’ t ever happen , because the core countries reject it .
In foreign policy , the EU can only act with unanimity , which means that a single veto blocks even a press release .
China and others exploit this by picking off individual states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states can not agree on common interests — in the Libyan civil war , for example , France supports one side , Italy the other .
In defense policy , the EU is a no-show because there isn ’ t , and won ’ t ever be , a European army .
*****None of this is to belittle the EU ’ s achievements .
In trade , the one area where it does act as a United States of Europe , it is a global superpower .
In consumer and antitrust regulation , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all over the world bow to the “ Brussels effect ” by complying with its rules .
The EU is indeed a place where “ in peacetime , everybody can prosper , ” as Goethe wrote about the Holy Roman Empire .
But what the EU isn ’ t , and to all appearances will never be , is “ a Europe that protects , ” to use a favorite phrase of French President Emmanuel Macron .
In the absence of major crises , such a union can persist for a long time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the decline isn ’ t always visible .
That is , until a threat materializes that ’ s existential .
For the Holy Roman Empire , it was Napoleon , who simply dissolved the millennium-old realm in 1806 , without anybody taking much notice .
For the EU , it could also be a foreign enemy .
Or another onslaught of refugees , nuclear blackmail or environmental disaster .
Or indeed the next virus .


washingtonpost--2020-04-25--Analysis | This Pandemic Is an Opportunity For Radical Simplification

A reset to what ?
My guess is that it ’ ll amount to a great simplification .
A simplification of our lives , priorities , schedules , memberships , finances , relationships and maybe even world views .
But also a simplification of our societies .
That ’ s because one of the side effects of Covid-19 is to expose the accumulation over decades — at least in the wealthy West — of untenable complexity in the individual , political and economic spheres of life .
In the individual context , the symptoms of complexity have been hiding in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for it is clutter .
During that age of innocence that ended around January 2020 , it was just too easy to buy stuff , and too hard not to .
So things were piling up faster than we could organize , store or dispose of them , and certainly faster than we could enjoy them .
The proof includes the stunning success of somebody like Marie Kondo , a Japanese lifestyle guru who promises to help unclutter your home .
Her approach , she says , is inspired by Shintoism , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who also brought you Zen ?
In practice , Kondo wants you to look at all your stuff and keep asking : “ Does it spark joy ?
” Usually , the answer is no , and out it goes .
The same clutter , until recently , extended to the rest of our middle-class lives .
It was becoming hard to manage our calendars and travel , whether for trips overseas or around town .
But we put up with the hassles because we were more afraid of missing out on opportunities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or social .
Double- and triple-booked , those of us fortunate enough to have good incomes have stressed over trade-offs between a gallery opening , a dinner party , a lecture or the gym .
Something similar was happening in the societies of rich countries .
We kept adding layers of complication : new bureaucracies , legislation , divisions of labor , tax loopholes , and so forth .
The European Union is one example , but the U.S. is arguably worse .
According to one influential thesis proposed in 2013 , America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kludge ” is a term from the software world for a clumsy patch that doesn ’ t solve the bigger issue , thereby creating even more complexity and future problems .
This is easily observed in America ’ s contemporary governance , or in its systems of health care , education and taxation .
Ask , for example , any new visitor to the U.S. what the following gibberish could be about : 401 ( k ) , IRA , Roth IRA , Keogh ?
Nobody would guess it has something to do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is in fact a recurring historical phenomenon , as described in 1988 by the American anthropologist Joseph Tainter in his book “ The Collapse of Complex Societies.
” By his count , complexity and an inability to simplify brought down some two dozen civilizations , from the Mycenaean and Minoan to the Hittite and Mayan , as well as several Chinese dynasties and the Western Roman Empire .
Collapse isn ’ t necessarily as scary as it sounds , by the way .
It ’ s merely a society ’ s rapid and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have segued into “ dark ages , ” but they needn ’ t have .
The alternative is to embrace simplification and call it innovation , if that helps .
Thanks to Covid-19 , we may now be at such a turning point .
As a first sign of rapid simplification , global supply chains are dissolving , and often being reassembled in much more rudimentary ways .
Simplification may also cause upheaval in our health care , tax and welfare systems , as it becomes clear that those who rely most on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ navigate the complexities of getting it .
In some countries , the reforms may come through populist revolt ; the better way is to do it deliberately and thoughtfully .
Closer to home , many of us have already begun to simplify .
If we used to fear missing out , now there ’ s little to miss out on , which is the best excuse for staying home with the family .
Frivolous connections are being pruned , while meaningful ones are revived and cultivated during “ happy hours ” on Zoom @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , so nobody feels bad about “ staycations.
” In everything from diet to medicine and fashion , “ simple is the new black.
” What many of us are realizing in this pandemic is that we need much less than we thought we wanted only a few months ago .
Does it spark joy ?
If not , out .
We may one day look back at Covid-19 with gratitude .


washingtonpost--2020-04-25--Democrats Eye Cold, Hard Cash In Next Stimulus Round

Their effort is sure to face objections from key Republicans , such as Majority Leader Mitch McConnell , who say they want to put the brakes on more deficit spending .
But some GOP lawmakers have complained that small local businesses are getting shut out from small business aid .
Long waits at state unemployment offices and high demand for the Paycheck Protection Program -- which offers forgivable loans to small businesses that keep employees on the job -- have left many people and small business owners unable to claim swift relief .
“ We must look at what the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by putting money into their pockets with another round of stimulus payments so they can pay for essentials , ” Neal , who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee , said on Thursday .
Wyden , the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee , wants to extend those cash payments to what he calls “ the smallest of the small businesses.
” Wyden ’ s plan , and a similar proposal in the House , would give small businesses up to $ 75,000 as they struggle with closures and drop-offs in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ limited to companies with $ 1 million or less in revenue and up to 50 employees .
The payment would be capped at 30 % of the business ’ s gross receipts .
That ’ s aimed and addressing a key criticism of the Paycheck Protection Program -- that the smallest businesses aren ’ t able to claim the loans because banks are giving priority to larger eligible companies that have existing relationships with those institutions and generate larger fees .
The additional $ 320 billion for the PPP program that Trump signed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for smaller banks and credit unions to loan to smaller businesses that were largely unable to tap the initial $ 349 billion round of funds .
Many small businesses worry that the money will be claimed by the time their application gets to the front of the line .
“ There are a lot of smaller small businesses , ” Representative Tom Suozzi , said on a call with reporters Friday .
“ We have to send a very clear message to the banks : we need you to help these mom and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the smallest businesses are more practical because it would bypass the complex application processes of directing the funds through banks .
Instead , it could go through the Internal Revenue Service , which already has data for these companies on hand .
The IRS has , so far , been successful in delivering $ 1,200 payments to low and middle-income adults plus an additional $ 500 for their children .
The IRS says it sent 88 million of the more than 150 million payments by mid April , with tens of millions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coming weeks .
Democrats are bringing a long list of priorities to negotiations on a further coronavirus aid measure , including funds for state and local governments , expanded unemployment benefits , workplace safety protections for front-line workers , and more funding for food stamps .
There ’ s still an appetite among lawmakers of both parties to add to the nearly $ 3 trillion already spent by Congress to combat the coronavirus pandemic and the damage to the economy .


washingtonpost--2020-04-02--Analysis | Will Airbnb Become Obsolete After the Coronavirus?

If you could freely walk the world ’ s most famous city streets today , you would see humanity stopped in its tracks .
National lockdowns and global travel bans have emptied bustling hotspots like Sydney ’ s Opera House , Bangkok ’ s night markets , the Louvre Museum in Paris and the Colosseum in Rome .
Global tourist traps are being slammed shut , and the ecosystem that sprang up around them is falling apart — including Airbnb .
Apartments once reserved for well-heeled tourists have seen bookings slump anywhere from 41 % to 96 % .
They @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or offered to health workers in solidarity .
At the moment , we ’ re all probably eager for the crush of humanity to come back to our cities .
But when the sound of ambulance sirens stops filling the streets of Paris and Rome , and the stifling oppression of self-isolation lifts , we might still pine for a “ cratering ” of the Airbnb economy .
That sounds harsh considering some use it to get spare cash out of their spare room — the firm says 14 % of hosts are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in London or Paris , where the price of some studio apartments can run over $ 1 million , it ’ s unlikely to be teachers earning the equivalent of $ 30,000 who are able to offer central pied-à-terre to overseas visitors .
Paris has 100,000 empty homes and 100,000 second homes , according to the mayor ’ s office , fueling a sense of social injustice .
One study of Airbnb in a Lisbon neighborhood between 2015 and 2017 found it looked less like a sharing economy and more like a buy-to-let @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rentals marketed all year round .
“ Short-term rentals have had a disastrous impact on cities ’ rental markets , ” McGill University ’ s David Wachsmuth told The Intelligencer last month .
Will a post-Covid-19 society really want that back ?
As Airbnb hosts apply for financial support to tide them over , they might reflect on a future that could be very different .
Post-coronavirus tourism and city life may not rebound as quickly or smoothly as after previous disasters like 9/11 or SARS .
Already , in China , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — skewed towards domestic , not international , trips .
If France loses a chunk of its 2 million annual Chinese visitors and their 4 billion euros ( $ 4.4 billion ) in associated spending , that ’ s a rough prospect for rentals .
But it will be good for housing stock .
And Europe will have an incentive to cultivate its own domestic tourism industry .
Satellite museums such as the Louvre-Lens , or lesser-known alternatives to globally-renowned hotspots — like Treviso , near Venice — might prosper .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work , and travel for work , could also change long-term .
Lockdowns in Italy and France have already seen irresponsible city-dwelling Northerners descend on family homes and rural towns in the south .
They might stay there if working from home turns out to be a durable , safe option as countries ramp up tests and vaccine research .
That ’ s a sobering thought for the likes of WeWork , which was cutting jobs and racking up losses even before the virus struck .
Meanwhile , as urban-geography expert Laurent Chalard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the sticks that are thriving as city offices fall silent .
Forgotten French textile factories are roaring back to life to make medical equipment .
Society is asking for more essential goods and fewer ancillary services .
We shouldn ’ t imagine that cities will lose their ability to concentrate jobs , people and money .
Europe ’ s greatest cities have survived plague , cholera and wars deadlier than Covid-19 .
And we will crave human contact even more after this virus , reckons venture-capital investor Stefano Bernardi , who is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ someone who shunned cities to live in the Dolomite mountains .
As anyone currently juggling conference calls and childcare can attest , real face-time has value .
Still , this crisis may be a chance for a more balanced recovery than simply a return to the norms of over-valued , over-crowded and over-polluted cities .
And if your next vacation is a trip to the suburbs , that will give the Mona Lisa more time to put her feet up .


washingtonpost--2020-06-03--Analysis | The Keys to Speed in Race for Vaccine, and Its Perils

First doses could be available this year , if developers can avoid major setbacks , according to both Anthony Fauci , director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , and Richard Hatchett , head of the Oslo-based Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations , which works to advance new vaccines .
Hitting that target would be remarkable considering the process of bringing a conventional vaccine from inception to the finish line takes on average nearly 11 years .
And just 6 % of experimental vaccines make it all the way .
An inoculation must clear a higher @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s injected into healthy individuals .
After testing a vaccine in animals , developers must show it ’ s safe and effective in humans .
That usually happens in three phases , starting with tests in a small number of people aimed at achieving the strongest immune response without significant side effects .
Larger-scale studies follow .
The final leg , which often requires thousands of patients and lasts years , evaluates a vaccine in the population it ’ s intended for .
If a vaccine passes these tests , it must then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quantities .
• Using innovative vaccine designs .
About a fifth of the Covid-19 vaccine projects rely on so-called gene-based technology .
It uses the body ’ s own cells to produce proteins that trick the immune system to react as if it ’ s been invaded by a pathogen , training it for the real thing .
These experimental vaccines can be made more speedily than conventional ones , which contain an inactivated or weakened version of a pathogen , or a piece of it .
Using a gene-based platform , Fauci @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first human test of an experimental Covid-19 vaccine a record-short 66 days after Chinese researchers made public the coronavirus ’ s genetic sequence .
An important caveat : No gene-based vaccine has yet been licensed for humans , although a few are in use in veterinary medicine .
• Compressing steps .
Another reason Moderna was able to move so quickly was that rather than testing its vaccine in animals before moving on to humans , it did both simultaneously .
For Covid-19 vaccines , U.S. and European regulators in March waived @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first .
• Building on past work .
Researchers at the University of Oxford got a jump by betting on a method they ’ ve used in their ongoing work on a vaccine against Middle East Respiratory Syndrome , which is caused by a related coronavirus .
That vaccine appeared to be safe in animal and early human testing .
The technique uses a modified cold virus as a harmless carrier to expose the immune system to the spiked protein that projects from the surface of a coronavirus rather like a crown , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ challenge ” trials .
In the final stage of testing , researchers typically give a vaccine to one group of volunteers and a placebo to another , then wait to see whether significantly fewer in the first group develop the targeted infection .
That takes time .
A quicker but riskier alternative is to inject volunteers with the vaccine , then deliberately expose them to the pathogen .
Such challenge trials are the basis for animal studies of vaccines , and they ’ ve been used in human tests of cholera , malaria @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of prominent scientists have argued that the urgency of a Covid-19 vaccine justifies their use now , and the website 1daysooner.org has collected the names of tens of thousands of people who say they ’ d participate .
Skeptics say it ’ s unethical to use this trial design until there are proven therapies to treat those who would become sick .
Despite the unprecedented mobilization , there ’ s no guarantee developers will deliver an effective shot .
A vaccine against HIV has eluded scientists for decades , as has a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of flu , though researchers think the coronavirus is an easier target because it doesn ’ t appear to mutate as rapidly as those viruses do .
The 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS ) , also caused by a coronavirus , was contained before researchers could come up with a vaccine .
How effective a Covid-19 vaccine might be and how long its protection would last are other crucial questions .
Still , a number of experts are hopeful .
The head of French vaccine maker Sanofi said the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be devised , but how many doses can be produced rapidly .
European regulators in 2011 recommended restricting the use of a swine-flu vaccine from GlaxoSmithKline Plc after it was linked to rare cases of narcolepsy .
A vaccine against Lyme disease developed by the same company , then called SmithKline Beecham , was pulled in 2002 amid concerns about links to arthritis .
Some vaccines have been shown to do the opposite of what they ’ re designed to do by inducing unwanted immune responses .
In the 1960s , an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ respiratory virus , not only failed to protect children , but made them more susceptible .
Two toddlers died .
In recent years , Sanofi ’ s dengue vaccine was found to exacerbate symptoms in some who received it .
Documented reports of unexpected side effects from new vaccines are different from the persistent and incorrect belief that well-established vaccines against childhood diseases carry significant risks .
A fumbled Covid-19 shot could further damage perceptions of vaccines .
Given the high failure rate for experimental vaccines , developers usually don ’ t invest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doses before a new one looks like a winner .
In this case , some of the most prominent players in the race , such as Johnson & Johnson , Sanofi and Moderna , are scaling up production facilities already .
CEPI , backed by philanthropist Bill Gates , wants to set up manufacturing facilities in every region .
Glaxo announced that it is collaborating with Sanofi , an Australian university and two Chinese companies on projects that use its adjuvants , vaccine ingredients that boost the immune response , in the hope @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in larger quantities .
Some populations are bound to get vaccine supplies before others .
One risk is that wealthier nations will monopolize Covid-19 vaccines , a scenario that played out in the 2009 swine flu pandemic .
A fund-raising drive launched by the European Union brought in pledges of more than $ 10 billion to develop coronavirus vaccines , treatments and tests and deploy them universally .
Immunizing the world would cost multiples of that figure , according to Seth Berkley , head of Gavi , a global non-profit organization focused on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financing measure called an advance market commitment , aimed initially at getting doses to health workers .
In such an arrangement , vaccine companies agree to make their products available at affordable prices in return for funding commitments from governments or other donors .
Health advocates say that distributing vaccines evenly all over the globe isn ’ t just the ethical thing to do .
It ’ s also critical to ending the crisis .


washingtonpost--2020-06-03--Businesses Sweat Insurance for One-Two Blows of Virus, Looting

Hart is among business owners digging into the details of their insurance policies to see what losses might be covered .
Hart said he ’ s confident his claim will be successful , but that doesn ’ t make the process an easy one .
“ For every item I ’ m missing , I have to supply an invoice .
That could be real tough , ” he said , with some items purchased a year or two ago .
“ You just got ta try to work through it.
” Protesters have come out in droves across the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of George Floyd , an unarmed black man who died after a white Minneapolis police officer knelt on his neck for more than eight minutes -- the latest incident of brutality against African-Americans .
While the protests have been largely peaceful , some people have used the unrest as an opportunity to vandalize and loot stores in cities including New York , Los Angeles and Wilmington .
“ It was wrong what they did to George Floyd -- it ’ s sickening , ” Hart said .
“ But when you take it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just has a small business , ” he said , trailing off while shaking his head .
The civil unrest comes as business owners continue to cope with the economic impact of the Covid-19 outbreak , which also required them to analyze the fine print of their insurance policies .
While there ’ s been a debate about whether business-interruption insurance covers retailers ’ pandemic-related losses , property damage from riots , civil commotion and vandalism are generally covered under standard policies , according to the Insurance Information Institute .
The insurance industry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t pay for virus losses because of a physical-damage requirement , an issue now being fought over by business owners , attorneys and lawmakers .
The situation is clearer when there are broken storefronts from looting , said Kim Winter , who leads Lathrop GPM ’ s insurance recovery and counseling practice group .
“ Here we know that there is actual direct physical damage -- there ’ s no question about it , it ’ s more than just a microscopic virus , so that ’ s the difference , ” she @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an associate at Lathrop GPM , said policyholders should try to alert their insurers quickly , even though the protests are still going on , and study their coverage closely .
While property damage is often covered , the double-whammy of the pandemic and looting could mean business-interruption claims become more complicated down the road , Winter said .
The 1992 riots in Los Angeles were the costliest civil-disorder event in U.S. history , totaling about $ 775 million in insured damage at the time , according to the insurance institute .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some natural disasters , including Hurricane Katrina , which resulted in $ 41 billion in insured losses .
Verisk Analytics Inc. ’ s Property Claim Services , which analyzes various events , has already designated the latest riots a catastrophe , meaning they ’ ll probably cause more than $ 25 million in insured damage and affect a significant number of insurers and policyholders .
The group hasn ’ t announced a firm estimate .
Meyer Shields , an analyst at Keefe , Bruyette & Woods , said in a June 1 note @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is that insured damages should be “ relatively modest , ” but that the combination of those losses , costs tied to the pandemic and a hurricane season forecast to be stronger than normal could weigh on insurers .
For now , business owners on the front lines are the ones navigating the aftermath .
It isn ’ t clear when Al ’ s , the sporting-goods store in Wilmington , will be able to restock , with some suppliers unable to ship goods for weeks because of the pandemic , Hart said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the store ’ s temporary plywood door .
Dias said he ’ d let his insurance policy lapse after closing more than two months ago because of Georgia ’ s Covid-19 lockdown .
It was hard to cover the costs as well as his $ 20,000 monthly rent in the ritzy Buckhead Village plaza , he said .
Dias had planned to open on Monday , but found the windows smashed and store ransacked when he stopped by at 5 a.m. Saturday .
For now , he ’ s started a fundraiser @ @ @ @ @ @ @ customers to reopen .
“ This store is very famous , ” said Dias , whose shop ’ s Instagram page is filled with pictures of Atlanta hip-hop artists and other celebrities with his apparel .
He vents at the injustice of looters targeting a black-owned shop .
“ We ’ ve been here for almost four years , so people know us .
”


washingtonpost--2020-06-03--Disinflation Out to Horizon, PBOC Fixit, Hottest Bonds: Eco Day

• The RBA ’ s refusal to entertain the prospect of negative interest rates is making Australia a hot destination for global bond managers • Steven Weinstein raised his first-quarter revenue expectations for Wayfair Inc. after scouring credit and debit card information from millions of Americans • The Trump administration is starting investigations into digital services taxes considered by several trading partners from the EU to India that could lead to tariffs being imposed • Almost one-third of unemployment benefits estimated to be owed to the millions of Americans who lost their jobs haven ’ t been paid yet • @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deal on a stimulus package , delaying plans to spend as much as 100 billion euros ( $ 110 billion ) to reinvigorate Germany ’ s faltering economy • The threat of a no-deal Brexit is back -- and with it the risk that the U.K. economy ’ s shaky recovery will be hobbled • Stephen Poloz will likely keep the Bank of Canada ’ s powder dry in his final policy decision , leaving the central bank ’ s next steps in the hands of incoming governor Tiff Macklem • Turkish policy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the fastest pace in over a decade , risking a weaker currency and stoking inflation • Finland ’ s government decided on more stimulus for the economy and pushed back its goal to halt debt growth • Coordination among Asian nations is key to steering the global economy toward recovery from the coronavirus crisis , according to former senior government officials and academics For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com


washingtonpost--2020-06-03--Analysis | The Mighty U.S. Dollar Is Having a Wobble

The Federal Reserve has saved the financial world with its unrelenting monetary packages , pumping in $ 3 trillion in the past three months .
It has met the soaring global demand for dollars , the haven currency in a crisis , and propped up the U.S. economy and a large swath of the developing world exposed to dollar borrowing .
With oil prices regaining their footing , the immediate danger of an emerging markets collapse has passed .
The Fed has also done the job at home .
The Nasdaq is within a squeak of its all-time peak , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 % of its record high and corporate bond yields have fallen sharply .
The mission to restore confidence in financial valuations is surely complete .
The flip side of this is that with interest rates at zero , the federal deficit soaring and U.S. bond yields barely above the rest of the developed world , there ’ s not much incentive for investors to be parked in dollars .
Washington ’ s dispute with Beijing won ’ t be helping , and neither will the civil unrest of recent days and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still have great appeal ; the dollar ’ s fall is merely the unwinding of a huge risk premium on other countries that favored the greenback .
The danger for Fed Chairman Jay Powell is whether he has overdone the infinite liquidity and whether the recent lurch lower for the dollar turns into a rout .
In fairness , the Fed has cut its daily bond purchases from $ 75 billion a day at one stage of the Covid-19 crisis into the single billions .
But the balance sheet effect of boosting the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , to more than $ 7 trillion , in such short order is hard to contain .
No wonder the dollar has been a casualty .
It wouldn ’ t be a surprise if the Fed ceased daily stimulus soon to become much more selective in its asset purchases .
The dollar ’ s weakness also reflects the relative strength of other currencies .
Neither China nor Japan have conducted stimulus on anything like the same scale .
The dollar ’ s most-traded counterpart , the euro , has scored some notable wins @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still-to-be-agreed 750 billion-euro ( $ 840 billion ) recovery fund is a sign that euro-area unity might finally be happening .
The lifting of lockdowns across Europe — without much discernible impact on coronavirus infection rates , at least not yet — gives the sense that the recession may not be as deep as feared .
The ECB has increased its balance sheet by less than 20 % so far , although it might be more by the time its meeting on Thursday is over .
That may check the recent euro strength @ @ @ @ @ @ @ local exporters such as Germany .
A weaker dollar might be just what the global economy needs to sustain a proper recovery , as it prevents a skew of capital flooding into just one liquid currency .
Greater potential returns in emerging economies will reappear .
Equally , it will be good news for U.S exporters with global revenues .
The Fed has done a stellar job so far .
Now it has to manage the stimulus easing successfully too .


washingtonpost--2020-06-02--Brazil Has Deadliest Day; NYC Keeps Reopening Plan: Virus Update

The nation of 210 million people has become an epicenter of the virus in the last few weeks .
Brazil ’ s peak has not yet arrived , and “ at the moment it is not possible to predict when it will arrive , ” Michael Ryan , executive director of the World Health Organization ’ s Emergencies Program , said Monday .
The New England Journal of Medicine published an “ expression of concern ” about a study published by the journal on May 1 that looked at the use of heart drugs called ACE inhibitors in coronavirus patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nearly 200-year-old U.K. medical journal , issued its own similar warning on a study about treating Covid-19 patients with the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine .
Both studies relied on data from a firm called Surgisphere Corp. , which says it aggregates information from medical records around the globe .
Last week , more more than 200 scientists signed a letter to the Lancet asking for greater transparency regarding the hospitals where patients ’ medical records came from and the method of analysis , along with other issues .
Lufthansa is making it compulsory for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ flights from June 8 , according to a statement .
Passengers must wear the masks when boarding , during the flight and when leaving the aircraft .
Exceptions will be made for children under the age of 6 and for health reasons .
The U.K ’ s statistics body criticized the government ’ s coronavirus-testing data , saying it falls well short of expectations .
In a letter Tuesday to Health Secretary Matt Hancock , David Norgrove , chair of the U.K. Statistics Authority , said that the “ aim seems to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tests , ” which gives them “ limited value ” in terms of analysis .
With the number of new coronavirus cases continuing to decline , Italians will be allowed to travel freely around the country again , ending almost three months of confinement to their home region to limit transmission of the disease .


washingtonpost--2020-06-09--Gold Gains as Equity Rally Stalls, World Bank Flags Contraction

The pause in demand for risk assets helped revive demand for gold , which has sputtered as reopening economies and better-than-expected economic data crimped the metal ’ s appeal as a haven after three straight monthly gains .
Bullion may also get help from the Federal Reserve officials meeting this week , who are expected to keep accommodative monetary policies in place .
“ There was a rush from people , from funds especially , who were afraid of missing the rally , so they were moving out of gold into equities , ” George Gero , a managing director @ @ @ @ @ @ @ phone Tuesday .
“ Today , there ’ s a reversal prior to the Fed meeting because expectations are lower interest rates and more stimulus , and of course more stimulus means more debt.
” On Monday , the central bank announced plans to expand its small and mid-sized business lending program .
It follows the European Central Bank ’ s decision last week to expand the amount of its bond purchases beyond economist expectations and extend their duration until at least the end of June 2021 .
Gold futures for August delivery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ounce at 1:31 p.m. on the Comex in New York .
Silver closed lower on the Comex , while platinum and palladium fell on the New York Mercantile Exchange .
While deflation fears put pressure on gold recently , many investors still expect that massive fiscal and monetary stimulus would ultimately stoke prices and drive real yields further down , aiding bullion .
“ While it is not our base case , we see the tail risk of above-target inflation as a potential driver for gold prices beyond $ 2,000 , ” Goldman @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said in an emailed research note Tuesday .
The analysts expect “ increased risk of higher inflation , should the labor market recovery surprise to the upside -- a fact we believe will spur greater investment in gold as a hedge.
” There are signs that some investors remain cautious on gold .
Holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by the metal fell for a third straight session on Monday after the longest run of advances in more than a year .
For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com