washingtonpost--2020-01-16--Analysis | How China’s Mystery Pneumonia Illness is Different From SARS

The outbreak in Wuhan , a city of 11 million , appears severe .
Dozens of people have been hospitalized -- a handful in serious condition -- since the first patient developed symptoms Dec. 12 .
Two cases have been confirmed outside China , in Thailand and Japan ; both involved travelers arriving from Wuhan .
On the other hand , at least six patients in Wuhan were discharged and only one fatality was reported .
The death occurred Jan. 9 in a patient with serious underlying medical conditions .
There haven ’ t been any cases of health-care workers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the disease probably isn ’ t being transmitted from person to person .
That reduces the potential of it spawning an outbreak like SARS , which began in China and swept across the globe , infecting thousands of people .
Mainly fever , with some patients experiencing fatigue , a dry cough and difficulty breathing .
Chest X-rays have shown invasive lesions of both lungs , the World Health Organization said .
However , only cases requiring hospitalization have been reported so far .
It ’ s possible other people have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mild , symptoms .
Chinese authorities identified a novel ( not seen before ) coronavirus in one of the pneumonia patients hospitalized in Wuhan after conducting gene sequencing .
The WHO has labeled the new virus 2019-nCoV .
Genomic data was made publicly available in mid-January , enabling scientists outside China to study its genetic fingerprint for clues about where and how it might have emerged .
A report prepared for the International Journal of Infectious Diseases found it is at least 70 % similar in its genetic makeup to the SARS virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in terms of severity , fatality rate and transmissibility .
Like the source of the virus , the way it spreads is also unknown .
The WHO quoted the Chinese authorities as saying it doesn ’ t transmit readily between people .
Investigators have focused on the wholesale seafood market in Wuhan , where most of the people infected either worked or shopped frequently .
The market has been closed since New Year ’ s Day and no additional cases have been detected in China since Jan. 3 .
Outside China , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 but discharged five days later .
He had developed a fever while in Wuhan and later tested positive for 2019-nCoV .
The Thai case involved a woman living in Wuhan who traveled with a tour group to Bangkok on Jan. 8 , three days after experiencing symptoms .
Thai authorities confirmed she was infected .
Neither patient had visited the market linked to most of the other cases .
That raised the possibility that the pathogen is lurking more widely in the city -- a worrying prospect ahead of the Lunar New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , which spurs frenzied grocery shopping , including sometimes exotic foods .
There ’ s a large family of them , with some causing less-severe diseases , some more .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
There ’ s growing recognition of the role of coronaviruses in cases of severe pneumonia .
The WHO says that new ones emerge periodically in different areas globally , and several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that haven ’ t infected humans .
It can vary .
HIV @ @ @ @ @ @ @ discovered as the cause of AIDS for years .
In the case of SARS , many of China ’ s top doctors were initially adamant they were dealing with pneumonia caused by chlamydia , a sexually transmissible bacterium .
China fired its then health minister , Zhang Wenkang , for mishandling that crisis .
Wuhan houses China ’ s first maximum bio-containment laboratory , built in 2015 to investigate the planet ’ s most dangerous pathogens , so it ’ s well placed for the current outbreak .
Scientists there have probably been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In mid-January , specialists from outside mainland China were invited to Wuhan to share information .
Authorities in Wuhan say they are providing the best possible medical care .
Patients have been isolated to prevent any potential spread .
Health officials are also looking for , screening and monitoring people the patients had contact with , and searching for current and past cases that may have been treated in medical institutions throughout the city .
Environmental samples from the closed market have been taken for analysis .
There are some , albeit narrow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In the case of SARS , it ’ s thought to have spread indirectly from a “ wildlife reservoir , ” believed to be bats , to humans via masked palm civets and other species in live-animal markets .
The Wuhan outbreak has also been linked to live-animal markets , making it possible the infectious agent has an animal origin .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .


washingtonpost--2020-01-28--Analysis | What You Need to Know About China’s Virus Outbreak

The outbreak began in Wuhan , a city of 11 million , in early December and spread to other parts of the country .
As of Jan. 28 , the virus had claimed more than 100 lives .
Some cases have been confirmed elsewhere involving travelers arriving from China as far away as Europe and the U.S .
There have been cases reported where the virus has spread along a four-person chain , indicating that it ’ s more easily transmissible than earlier thought .
And a top Chinese health official said it could be contagious before the carrier shows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much harder to stop .
There is always a concern when a new pathogen emerges in a population because people typically lack immunity to it , and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel coronaviruses ( not seen in humans before ) represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , like SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
As of late January , the virus , labeled 2019-nCoV by the WHO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and less deadly , than SARS .
A report done for the International Journal of Infectious Diseases found it is at least 70 % similar in its genetic makeup to the SARS virus but “ appears clinically milder ” in terms of severity , fatality rate and transmissibility .
Of the first handful of deaths linked to the virus , at least some were people who already were seriously ill .
Regular pneumonia , a viral , bacterial or fungal infection that inflames the air sacs in one or both lungs , kills @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Influenza has killed an estimated 12,000 to 61,000 each year in the U.S. over the past decade .
Mainly fever , with some patients experiencing fatigue , a dry cough and difficulty breathing .
Chest X-rays have shown invasive lesions of both lungs , the WHO said .
However , almost all the reported cases so far are those requiring hospitalization .
It ’ s very likely other people have been infected and experienced no , or only mild , symptoms .
Many people have recovered and been discharged from the hospital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ estimates the incubation period , the time between infection and the onset of symptoms , is around 14 days ; Chinese doctors say about 10 on average .
Investigators in Wuhan have focused on the seafood and animal market , where most people infected early in the outbreak either worked or shopped frequently .
It has been closed since Jan. 1 , though cases continued to appear , including in people who hadn ’ t gone there .
That raised the possibility that the pathogen is lurking more widely in the city .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ China was criticized for a lack of transparency , it made genomic data about the virus publicly available quickly .
That has enabled scientists anywhere to study the genetic fingerprint of the virus for clues about where and how it might have emerged .
Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered resolute efforts to curb its spread ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday , which fell this year on Jan. 25 and for which many people typically travel .
The government imposed a quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in excess of 50 million people .
Authorities dispatched medical personnel from the military to Wuhan to help out at hospitals .
Patients have been isolated to prevent any spread .
Health officials are looking for , screening and monitoring people the patients had contact with , and searching for current and past cases that may have been treated in medical institutions throughout the city .
Hong Kong , the international financial center that functions with some autonomy from China , announced travel restrictions from the mainland .
Outside China , airports have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including in the U.S. SARS is thought to have spread indirectly from a “ wildlife reservoir , ” believed to be bats , to humans via masked palm civets and other species in live-animal markets .
The SARS outbreak began in late 2002 in Guangdong province and spread across the border to Hong Kong and beyond .
The WHO issued a global health alert in March 2003 and didn ’ t declare the outbreak contained until July 5 that year .
China ’ s tourism , transportation and retail sectors were heavily hit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fell sharply , as did real estate prices and financial markets .
The epidemic subtracted an estimated 0.8 percentage point from gross domestic product growth in China in 2003 , according to a China Daily report that cited a National Bureau of Statistics official .
A 2003 academic study estimated the global economic cost at close to $ 40 billion or more .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ role of coronaviruses in severe cases of pneumonia .
The WHO says that new coronaviruses emerge periodically in different areas globally , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
They tend to morph and mutate a lot , which means the level of risk they pose can change the longer they circulate .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .

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washingtonpost--2020-01-28--Analysis | The Coronavirus Won’t Wreck the Commodities Market

Australian shares of Rio Tinto Group fell as much as 5.9 % when trading resumed after a public holiday Monday , on track for their biggest slide in three-and-a-half years .
Those of iron-ore producer Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. slumped as much as 8.7 % in early trading .
That looks overdone .
In the grip of an epidemic , it can feel like the sky is falling — but most such viruses die down in a matter of months , and people shouldn ’ t underestimate how much industrial stimulus Beijing will inject in the economy to keep growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Acute Respiratory Syndrome , which swept through southern China and east Asia in the early months of 2003 .
Like most coronaviruses — and indeed , most infections of the nose and throat , such as influenza — it exhibited a pronounced winter seasonality , with infections beginning in November and dropping rapidly through April , before approaching zero in June .
Even Middle East Respiratory Syndrome , a coronavirus associated with parts of the world where winter weather is less extreme , showed a relatively similar pattern , with a peak in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Combined with this natural decline is the fact that , despite early surveillance and response lapses , China and other countries are already employing extreme measures to halt the spread .
While quarantining of the entire city of Wuhan may not be sufficient — given the disease appears to have spread unchecked until it was too late — that probably won ’ t be the last attempt to isolate the virus .
China ’ s government , property developers and businesses are likely to implement further measures such as canceling public events and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ things play out this way , it ’ s not impossible that the epidemic could start to subside in April , just as China ’ s industrial machine is revving up from its normal winter slumber .
Cold weather and the long shadow of the Lunar New Year holiday typically lead to very low levels of industrial activity in January and February , before picking up to full speed between March and June .
In the five years through 2018 , for instance , daily pig iron production in March was about 7.4 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in January .
Cement output ramps up even more rapidly , as warming weather makes it possible to mix concrete on building sites again : While January and February figures are often too weak to be reported by China ’ s statistical agency , May output over the same period averaged about 23 % above the levels just two months earlier .
That cycle could be particularly pronounced this year .
China ’ s consumers are staying home during what ’ s traditionally been high season for shopping , dining , seeing films @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in services consumption could cut gross domestic product growth by about 1.2 percentage points , according to S & P Global Ratings .
That could , in theory , put a serious dent in output over the full year , which economists already expect to fall below the government ’ s target of “ about 6 % .
” It might also violate a long-term pledge to double the country ’ s GDP by 2020 , delivered on the eve of Xi Jinping ’ s accession to the Communist Party ’ s highest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to take that sort of blow lying down .
Just recall the responses to the 2003 SARS outbreak , the 2008 financial crisis , and the overzealous economic rebalancing toward consumption in 2015 .
As on those occasions , fixed-asset investment ( particularly by state-owned companies ) is likely to surge to fuel fresh industrial activity .
China ’ s yearlong credit diet — no less serious , in its way , than the one that preceded the 2016 boom — will be loosened to inject some fresh life into a virus-hit economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ defer China ’ s shift to an economy more dependent on consumption and less on mounting debt and carbon emissions — but it will also be bullish , not bearish , for commodities .
China ’ s coal imports in the 12 months through June 2017 were nearly a third higher than in the preceding year ; copper rose 12 % , oil by 13 % and iron ore by 7.7 % .
As the virus dies down , don ’ t be surprised to see that pattern play out one more time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ country vowing to build two hospitals in a fortnight that makes investors think industrial commodities are heading for the sick bay ?


washingtonpost--2020-01-28--Analysis | When Face Masks Are a 3M Big Seller, That’s Telling

Sales at 3M fell 2.6 % in the fourth quarter after backing out the impact of acquisitions and currency swings , leaving the company with its biggest annual decline on that basis since 2009 .
With U.S. tariffs still in place on some $ 360 billion of Chinese goods , political uncertainty tied to the American presidential election and few specifics about alleged purchasing commitments from China — not to mention the potential economic impact of the widening coronavirus crisis — a recovery is apt to be more muted .
( 1 ) 3M ’ s concerns run deeper than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
PFAS — which stands for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances — are known as the “ forever chemicals ” because they don ’ t break down in the environment and accumulate in the body .
They have been linked to health problems including cancer and immune system dysfunction , spurring a series of lawsuits against manufacturers including 3M and DuPont de Nemours Inc. ’ s Chemours Co. spinoff .
The charge 3M announced Tuesday reflects updated expectations for customer-related litigation and environmental matters for sites where it historically manufactured the chemical .
3M @ @ @ @ @ @ @ received a grand jury subpoena related to non-compliant discharges from an Alabama facility , and said it had discovered similar issues at an Illinois plant as part of a fourth-quarter review .
The charges are a reminder of how much investors still don ’ t know about 3M ’ s financial exposure to lawsuits and potential environmental regulation .
Gordon Haskett analyst John Inch has estimated 3M ’ s ultimate liability for PFAS – including remediation , personal injury settlements and monitoring expenses – could be about $ 27 billion .
The company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by waiting until the call to disclose the grand jury probe .
That was General Electric Co. ’ s attitude in 2018 when it casually dropped a mention of a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation into some of its accounting practices an earnings call .
That isn ’ t the company you want to keep when it comes to transparency and accountability .
In that light , I treat 3M ’ s latest restructuring push with a dose of skepticism .
The company will dismantle the international operations arm that was tasked with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ give its business groups global control over decisions affecting their strategy and resources .
This is meant to be “ the next step in its transformation journey ” following a shakeup last year , where 3M rethought how its businesses are divided up .
The idea was to group its products by customers , rather than market – i.e .
sales of automotive products to retail shops would fall under the “ consumer ” unit rather than be lumped in with automotive revenue from manufacturers or body shops .
In theory , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ processes ; 3M says it will help the company save as much as $ 120 million a year .
But it also feels like a bit like reshuffling the deck and a convenient way to throw some corporate-speak at a plan to cut 1,500 jobs that might otherwise have felt less like a “ transformation ” and more like a reaction to still stubbornly sluggish sales growth .
For 2020 , 3M warned organic sales may be flat at worst .
That ’ s a weaker forecast than some analysts had been expecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even this downbeat outlook may not be pessimistic enough .
It ’ s possible sales slump yet again , particularly given 3M ’ s dependence on China ’ s economy and the impact from the coronavirus outbreak .
3M had been modeling low-to-mid-single digit growth in China in 2020 off of depressed 2019 numbers , CEO Mike Roman said on the earnings call .
While the company had already been expecting a sluggish start to the year in China largely due to still-weak automotive markets , the coronavirus is “ changing things as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Offsetting the possible negative impact on China ’ s overall economy is the growing demand for 3M ’ s face masks and other respiratory-protection products .
The coronavirus aside , it ’ s hard to give 3M the benefit of the doubt after a staggering series of guidance cuts over the course of 2018 and 2019 .
Even if 3M finally did get its outlook right for a change , its best-case scenario for sales growth is a meager 2 % increase .
Such sluggish but stabilized revenue growth is likely to describe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but unlike 3M — which declined in 2019 and fell again on Tuesday ’ s earnings news — many of them aren ’ t priced for that kind of environment .


washingtonpost--2020-04-27--U.S. Cases Rise at Slower Pace; States Ease Rules: Virus Update

Ohio ’ s restriction on gatherings of no more than 10 people will remain , and restaurants , hair salons @ @ @ @ @ closed for now , he said.The governor , a Republican , said testing and tracing @ @ @ @ @ increase enough during May to allow the phased-in reopening but that the state will be @ @ @ @ @ spike in infections.DeWine was among the first U.S. governors to close schools and non-essential businesses @ @ @ @ @ a stay-at-home order that took effect March 23 and initially was set to expire April @ @ @ @ @ May 1 .


washingtonpost--2020-01-23--Analysis | Chinese Food Will Determine the Spread of Pandemics

That transition is likely to be a major factor in the spread of new diseases such as the coronavirus , which has killed 17 people since it was first detected last month in Wuhan .
The central Chinese city was put on lockdown Thursday to contain the virus .
How China handles the changes taking place in its food industry will determine the future of infections for everyone on the planet .
Epidemics are a product of urbanization .
Only when humans started to pack themselves into densely populated cities around 5,000 years ago were infections able to attain the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ large numbers .
The worldwide disease outbreaks we call pandemics started to emerge only when our urban civilization went global .
Think about that in terms of the livestock industry and the implications are concerning .
In the space of 50 years or so factory farming has “ urbanized ” an animal population that was previously scattered between small and midsize holdings .
Epidemic conditions that once only affected humans can increasingly pose threats to our food animals , too .
Then consider each animal as a potential laboratory for the mutations that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Globally , the population of farm animals is about three times that of humans .
Some of the most serious disease outbreaks in recent decades have resulted from infections crossing the species barrier from intensively farmed livestock to people .
H5N1 avian flu may have started to spread when migratory birds wound up in close proximity to the new intensive poultry farms that sprang up across eastern China in the 1990s .
The origins of the H1N1 swine flu pandemic are harder to unpick , but several studies have suggested diverse origins relating @ @ @ @ @ @ @ between Europe , Asia and North America .
The Wuhan virus , similarly , was first found among people linked to the city ’ s wet market .
As my colleague Adam Minter has written , the conditions in these open-air stalls — where many animals are slaughtered to order or taken home alive — are a major factor in the spread of disease in China in recent years .
It ’ s not all bad news .
Precisely because they ’ re such potent sources of infection , biosecurity measures and surveillance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than they are on traditional holdings .
China ’ s bureaucracy has often been characterized by secrecy and indecision in the face of epidemics and food safety problems .
It seems to take strong direction from the top for this stasis to be reversed , so it ’ s good that President Xi Jinping has called for action around the latest outbreak .
Even so , the devastating spread of African swine fever over the past year suggests that food safety is still weaker than it should be .
The changing nature of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As amazing as the persistence of China ’ s wet markets may seem to outsiders , it ’ s easy to overlook how quickly they ’ re fading .
Until the 1990s , supermarkets didn ’ t exist , rationing was common , and meat in many areas was a treat reserved for rare occasions like the coming Lunar New Year festival .
Nowadays , the market share of modern grocery stores is about 65 % , according to Euromonitor International .
That puts far more of the meat supply chain into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The bigger problem is likely to be a political one .
Food-safety measures work best where there ’ s a high degree of trust in society .
Farmers are most likely to pay the personal costs of following hygiene rules when they think they can benefit more from the integrity of the system than from smuggling infected livestock .
As even Beijing acknowledges , trust is one commodity that ’ s in short supply in China these days .


washingtonpost--2020-03-20--Analysis | Stop Shutting Borders and Start Working Together

Food and medicine flows are increasingly at risk : EU adviser Maria Capobianchi warned that internal borders were making it “ more difficult ” for virus-stricken Italy to receive medical equipment .
A fear of shortages has pushed several countries to ban medical-equipment exports to ensure their own citizens get priority.The danger of unpicking the very fabric of the EU — free movement , frictionless trade , unity and solidarity — is being justified in the name of public health .
The Covid-19 case tally has risen recently in Europe , now dubbed the “ epicenter ” of the outbreak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Italy , France , Germany , Spain , Switzerland , the U.K. and the Netherlands now exceeds China ’ s total of 80,928 .
Slowing the spread of disease and flattening the infection curve is put forward as the end that justifies the means of beggar-thy-neighbor policies .
Spain has declared a state of emergency ; France says it ’ s in a state of war .
Few EU leaders talk about Europe when addressing the crisis — the mood is very much every country for itself .
Such knee-jerk reactions are pretty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ war between states , or some kind of emergency restricted to a single country , it might make sense to kick solidarity or cooperation to the curb .
But this is a virus that doesn ’ t respect borders or nationalities .
Every country within continental Europe has at least one confirmed case of Covid-19 .
When Austria earlier this month closed its border to people from Italy without a medical certificate , it had fewer than 200 cases ; today , it has over 2,000 .
No state is immune.Collective action makes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this than national restrictions .
There are economies of scale when it comes to health care , whether it ’ s the pooling of financial resources to fund vaccine research or the procurement of medical equipment .
Information-sharing would allow for supply-chain bottlenecks to be properly monitored and addressed .
The European Commission has taken some steps towards better resource management : On Thursday it announced a 50 million-euro ( $ 53.4 million ) stockpile of equipment such as ventilators and protective masks to support countries facing shortages .
But much more will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Healthcare is ultimately the preserve of individual EU countries , not Brussels , and they ’ re moving slowly.In the meantime , the risk of restricting the flow of essential medical equipment , whether through export bans or the knock-on effects of border controls , is growing — and is surely the definition of shortsightedness .
At a time when Germany has spare capacity for devices like ventilators , it ’ s awkward that Italy ’ s call for emergency supplies was recently answered by China rather than its European partners .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ just ethical in such a closely integrated economy , as London School of Economics ’ s Joan Costa Font tells me : If Covid-19 measures are supposed to be temporary , it is in each EU country ’ s self-interest to ensure that their neighbors have what they need to control the epidemic and eventually stamp it out so that their own citizens can feel safe and assured when frictionless trade and free movement will return one day .
China seems to have understood that , at least.Cooperation may be easier said than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But at a time when the pandemic is proving difficult to halt — Italy has now surpassed China as the country with the most coronavirus deaths — and with its global economic impact likely to run upwards of $ 1 trillion , it ’ s a fair bet that working together will bring far more benefits than shutting borders .


washingtonpost--2020-05-30--U.S. Cases Rise; Trump G-7 May Draw Fewer Leaders: Virus Update

Greece will allow visitors from more nations , including the U.S. and U.K. , to arrive at Athens and Thessaloniki airports starting June 15 , the Foreign Ministry said .
After July 1 , flights can land at all Greek airports.The government will use the European Union Aviation Safety Agency ’ s list of airports to determine testing for arriving passengers .
If travel originates at an airport not on the affected-area list , then visitors are subject to random tests , the Foreign Ministry said .
If the journey begins at an airport on the EASA list , then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seven days and if positive will be under supervised quarantine for 14 days .
The country , which had enforced sweeping and strict stay-at-home orders from March 25 , will limit the stringent rules to areas that have a large number of active cases .
Authorities will decide to open schools and colleges in July , while international air travel will resume in the final phase .
The exit plan comes even as India has been unable to flatten its curve despite the restrictions which have left its already troubled economy in deep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases on Saturday , taking the total to 32,203 , after recording more than 300 infections in each of the two previous days , the government said .
The increase in new cases has been mostly in the greater Lisbon area and led the government on Friday to delay the planned reopening of malls in that region .
The number of cases in intensive care units fell to 63 on Saturday , remaining at the lowest level since March .


washingtonpost--2020-05-30--Analysis | Masks Are Here to Stay, Even After Covid Goes Away

Since then , the world has learned more about how the virus spreads , and the disconcerting number of asymptomatic infections has helped make the case for the broad use of masks .
Multiple Asian countries where mask use was prevalent even before the pandemic have had substantially better outcomes , with various other effective public-health measures likely also playing a role .
In many parts of the U.S. , even in states that are reopening , masks are now required , and wearing them has become more and more routine .
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is enlisting celebrities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effort to turn the practice into a habit .
In other areas , wearing a mask is seen as taking a side in a culture war , an issue made worse by Trump ’ s continued insistence on going barefaced .
This attitude should change .
The fact is , masks can play a vital role in prevention and containment .
Americans should get used to the idea that they may be necessary at times even after the current crisis subsides .
Until now , much of the government-backed effort to produce protective @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While that should continue to be a priority , it ’ s worth taking extra steps to boost stocks of better surgical-style masks intended to support reopening states .
Even relatively simple coverings can stop some virus-containing droplets that can spread Covid-19 to others , especially in combination with other hygiene and distancing measures .
However , surgical-style masks are better at stopping virus-containing droplets and are easier to wear in summer heat .
Any reduction in transmission to others is highly significant in containing the virus .
A boost in availability would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in areas and situations of particular concern .
Masks aren ’ t quite as crucial in uncrowded and outdoor spaces in regions where the virus isn ’ t circulating much .
They ’ re arguably essential in crowded and poorly ventilated areas , particularly in hot spots , and easy availability and even targeted enforcement should be the rule in those situations .
The places where masks won ’ t do as much good now may be tomorrow ’ s areas of concern .
Authorities in those areas should be ready to respond @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the next crisis , where masks can play a role in prevention instead of catch-up .
Pandemic-scale stockpiles for broad public use should be comparatively easy and cheap to manufacture over the long run , once the immediate threat of the epidemic is over .
There should be a quicker trigger going forward to recommend or require masks when an airborne threat emerges , and robust plans to deploy them as a broad public-health measure .
And hopefully by then , the dangerous politicization of wearing masks and taking other common-sense health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ places today will have been overcome by more effective public messaging and education .
Pandemic preparation is hard and is only effective and durable under good leadership .
Learning a relatively easy lesson about masks could help provide at least a bit of insurance .


washingtonpost--2020-01-26--Analysis | Oil Was Sick Even Before Coronavirus Hit

Like the outbreak itself , oil ’ s problems began in December with a fever of its own .
Relief at a sudden truce in the U.S.-China trade war sparked a rally taking oil from about $ 62 a barrel close to $ 70 by the end of that month .
Speculators , in retreat for much of 2019 , suddenly piled in again .
Hedge funds ’ net length in the major crude and product contracts surged from less than 600 million barrels-equivalent to almost 900 million between early December and early January .
On a rolling four-week basis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long positions in my entire data series going back to the start of 2011 ( and net length increased at its fastest rate in more than two years ) .
You ’ ll notice the fever began to break a little earlier this month .
Friday ’ s report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed net length dropped by 63 million barrels-equivalent , or 7 % , in the two weeks after January 7 .
But the way the fever subsided revealed continuing vulnerability .
After all , prices dropped even as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Soleimani threatened to unleash chaos in one of the world ’ s biggest oil-producing countries , Iraq , and Libya ’ s tensions flared up again , blocking its oil exports .
And this comes mere months after the collective shrugging-off of September ’ s attack on Saudi Arabia ’ s Abqaiq oil-processing facility .
Besides fever , listlessness is also the hallmark of a sick patient .
So why has the oil market reacted strongly in response to coronavirus reports but not in the other direction when rockets are exploding in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ technical factor at play .
Energy economist Phil Verleger points out oil producers such as Occidental Petroleum Corp. took advantage of the speculative rally to hedge their 2020 output .
You can see this in the roughly 140 million barrel-equivalent expansion of swap dealers ’ net short position in Nymex light sweet crude between early December and early January , a proxy for hedging activity by producers .
As oil prices decline , particularly toward such key levels as $ 60 in Brent and $ 55 in WTI , so the banks that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their own exposure — a self-reinforcing spiral similar to what appeared to happen in the oil rout that closed out 2018 .
Underlying this is the basic problem that has dogged the oil market for five years : excess supply and inventories relative to demand .
The continuing OPEC+ cuts that got everyone excited back in 2016 are the surest sign of this chronic condition ; but there are others , such as unusually subdued U.S. gasoline demand .
No one can accurately quantify what impact the coronavirus outbreak will have on oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to little or spark pandemics , with much in between .
And the impact on oil demand , at least in the near term , has more to do with perceptions of infectiousness and what that does to travel and regular interaction rather than fatalities per se .
Oil traders are as much in the dark on the ultimate course of this as anyone .
Meanwhile , on the supply side , they know there is spare capacity , a demonstrated Saudi pledge to maintain supply even if bombed and a U.S. fracking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goaded enough price-wise , tends to produce more rather than less .
In other words , the ceiling is in sharper focus than the floor right now .
Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy , mining and commodities .
He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal ’ s Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times ’ Lex column .
He was also an investment banker .


washingtonpost--2020-04-29--Analysis | What Covid-19’s Second Wave Could Look Like

What ’ s uncertain is how devastating future surges of infection will be .
If they ’ re sporadic and kept under control , death rates will stay low , and life may inch back toward normalcy .
If they ’ re large , countries and regions may need to dive back into shutdown mode , extending the pandemic ’ s economic damage .
That ’ s not to say countries are entirely powerless over their fates .
Areas that open gradually and with widespread testing and contact-tracing programs will most easily be able to detect and interrupt outbreaks .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , too , and an unpredictable one — starting with the weather .
The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 might behave as the common coronaviruses that cause many mild respiratory infections do .
They spread more readily in colder , drier environments and have a harder time infecting people when the weather is warm and humid .
( They ’ re helped by the way people cram together indoors during cold weather . )
In the U.S. , these viruses typically peak in November and December and fall to a trough from February to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ determine the extent to which seasonal tendencies apply to Covid-19 .
But any warm-weather decline this year is likely to arrive late and not amount to much .
After all , the disease didn ’ t show up in many parts of the world until late winter .
While there ’ s some evidence that this coronavirus doesn ’ t care for heat , most transmission has been occurring indoors .
And the existence of outbreaks in warmer nations ( Thailand and Singapore , for instance ) and the sheer virulence of Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Seasonality may nevertheless at least limit the size of any post-lockdown rebound .
New outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere this summer could be smaller , and that would buy valuable time to make progress on testing , developing treatments and reinforcing health systems .
On the other hand , it could also mean that the virus begins to spread more rapidly in the Southern Hemisphere , and that later outbreaks in the fall and winter will be especially acute in places where people neglect to take appropriate precautions .
Theoretically , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ viruses do , if populations acquire immunity and it runs out of people to infect .
While most countries around the world have either embraced social distancing or invested aggressively in containment , Sweden has imposed only mild restrictions .
Its goal is to reduce the economic impact of the pandemic .
Racing toward “ herd immunity ” isn ’ t an explicit aim of the policy , according to the country ’ s chief epidemiologist , but it ’ s a helpful threshold he thinks could be achieved in Stockholm within weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beyond its potentially high human cost , is that scientists know little about acquired immunity to Covid-19 .
Contracting a virus generally leads to some future protection , as the body ’ s immune system remembers the bug and is prepared with antibodies for the next fight .
However , the duration and strength of this immunity varies by the disease , the intensity of the person ’ s infection , and other factors .
There have been reports of people infected with the Covid virus twice — though these might reflect testing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is known to fade within a year .
And while antibodies to SARS , Covid-19 ’ s cousin , have lasted longer , the SARS outbreak died out before researchers had a chance to observe whether they broadly prevent reinfection .
Months-long studies of antibody-positive individuals are needed to learn about acquired immunity to Covid-19 .
If it turns out that immunity is easily gained and long-lasting , infection rates should decline over time .
If it ’ s transient and unreliable , the world could face annual or biennial outbreaks for years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s future transmission dynamics suggests that the size of outbreaks will vary drastically depending on the virus ’ s seasonality and the duration of people ’ s immunity .
Going forward , countries have experience and , having flattened the curve , more time to prepare .
Yet when cold weather returns in the fall , they may face a new challenge : the simultaneous return of Covid-19 and the flu .
This could sow confusion and strain testing and hospital capacity .
Robert Redfield , director of the U.S. Centers for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that a winter outbreak of Covid-19 could be more troublesome even if it is smaller than the one we ’ re having now .
Scientific breakthroughs could also steer the trajectory of Covid-19 : The discovery of an effective treatment would greatly reduce suffering and strain on health care systems .
Wednesday ’ s news that Gilead Sciences Inc ’ s remdesivir sped recovery in some hospitalized patients in a placebo-controlled trial is welcome , even though it ’ s not the game changer that ’ s needed .
And by the fall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ antibodies that could potentially prevent and treat the disease .
However , treatments and vaccines now in the works are aimed at the version of the coronavirus that is currently spreading .
Any significant mutation could undermine progress .


washingtonpost--2020-04-29--U.S. Cases Rise 2.7%; Florida to Reopen Some Areas: Virus Update


washingtonpost--2020-04-30--Analysis | Davos Man May Be a Victim of the Pandemic

The organization celebrated its 50th anniversary in January , with an attendance list featuring 2,000 guests representing about 100 countries .
Among them were at least 119 billionaires , according to calculations by my Bloomberg News colleague Tom Metcalf .
Moreover , while the gender imbalance has improved in recent years , more than three-quarters of the attendees were male which is , frankly , still pathetic .
Davos Man looks increasingly anachronistic .
Those optics have raised misgivings for one of the Alpine gathering ’ s regular attendees .
“ When people are struggling and unemployment is soaring , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meeting in a Swiss ski resort is divisive at a time when we need unity of purpose , ” Standard Life Aberdeen Plc Chief Executive Officer Keith Skeoch told the Daily Mail newspaper last week .
So he decided to pull his company out of Davos .
“ It is very apparent that we are heading into a significant global recession that will create real hardship in our communities , ” Skeoch said in a memo to staff last week .
The 3 million pounds ( $ 3.7 million ) that would have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hosting a whisky bar where a traditional Scottish bagpiper would serenade guests , will instead be donated to “ community projects ” in the regions where Standard Life Aberdeen operates .
The nature of such shindigs means Davos is often caught napping , missing the breaking news that should dominate its agenda .
It reflects a basic flaw in human nature : We ’ re programmed to look for the next banana , and pretty terrible at long-term planning .
So when asked about the biggest risks facing the world , respondents to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ extreme weather events , the failure of climate-change mitigation , major natural disasters , loss of biodiversity and human-triggered environmental damage highest .
It was the first time climate concerns had dominated the list in the survey ’ s 14 years , reflecting the prevailing news agenda in the months before the conference .
Chronic diseases haven ’ t made the top 10 of most likely outcomes since 2010 , after being rated the second most-probable risk in 2007 .
Pandemics haven ’ t featured since ranking as the fourth and fifth highest-impact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
While the world was aware that a virus was spreading outside of China in January , the danger it posed seemed minimal , with fewer than 30 deaths reported by the time delegates gathered .
The looming epidemic did make a brief Davos appearance .
In a Bloomberg Television interview , Thomas Buberl , the CEO of French insurer Axa SA , said “ new viruses will pop up ” because of mankind ’ s encroachment into more regions of the world .
But Pascal Soriot at drugmaker AstraZeneca Plc said that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seriously , ” his personal opinion was that global warming was a much bigger threat .
Adapting Davos to respect the strictures of social distancing may prove impossible when the whole point is to rub shoulders with influential people from the globe ’ s four corners .
If the show does go on , you could argue that companies would have a fiduciary duty to keep their senior managers away : I suspect there ’ s not a single insurance company that would pay out on a Key Person Protection policy if a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even Covid-20 , at a Davos breakfast or sipping cocktails at the Piano Bar .
The potential hazards of attending the WEF ’ s conclave have occurred to at least one member of the financial aristocracy .
“ I had this nightmare that somehow in Davos , all of us who went there got it , and then we all left and spread it , ” JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon said in February .
“ The only good news from that is that it might have just killed the elite.
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ awareness of the climate crisis as a real and present danger to act on .
The pandemic has already had a beneficial , if potentially short-lived , effect on the environment , with lockdowns around the world curbing pollution by closing factories and slashing travel .
Jellyfish have been spotted floating in the canals of Venice ( although , sadly , not dolphins ) , and whales are enjoying swimming in quieter oceans without the low-frequency noise generated by ships .
With the average Davos attendee generating about 2,000 pounds of carbon dioxide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the plane flights there and back , a trip to the conference looks less and less justifiable .
If the organizers want to get ahead of the curve by announcing something , they should declare that the 2021 gathering will be held via Zoom .
For once , Davos would truly reflect the zeitgeist .


washingtonpost--2020-04-30--U.S. Cases Increase 1.2%, Slowest Pace This Month: Virus Update


washingtonpost--2020-04-08--Analysis | The World Needs Ventilators. Here’s the Snag

Car companies such as Ford Motor Co. , General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. are a natural choice to mass-produce these medical devices .
They churn out millions of vehicles every year , procuring and bringing together hundreds of parts from around the world at rapid speed .
Ventilators needs anything from 400 to 1,000 components from tubes and sensors to pressure valves , humidification systems and filters .
There is significant overlap between the engineering of ventilators and cars , which both bring together electronic , electric , hydraulic and mechanical aerodynamics expertise .
The parts are mostly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a ventilator come from dozens of countries and through as many as nine layers of suppliers .
At the same time , some specialty components , such as oxygenation membranes needed for mechanical ventilation , are made by only a few precision manufacturers— meaning that any attempt to effect a rapid expansion in global production is constrained by the ability of these companies to ramp up .
The same disruption the coronavirus pandemic has wrought on automakers ’ global supply chains will apply equally to their efforts to make ventilators .
In normal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feasible .
However , automakers are only in this position because conditions are so abnormal .
The coronavirus has wreaked havoc on supply chains .
Logistics , transportation and manufacturing have been upended .
Retooling factories will take time and the disease won ’ t wait .
That makes the task even more formidable for companies such as Ford and GM , which have faced pressure from President Donald Trump to move more quickly and repurpose factories to turn out ventilators .
Trump invoked the wartime Defense Production Act last week to help @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the administration ’ s effort doesn ’ t cover the full chain from raw materials to distribution , as my colleague Brooke Sutherland has written .
The U.S. may need as many as 960,000 ventilators , the Society of Critical Care Medicine estimates , versus 200,000 that are available .
India ’ s requirement is as many as 220,000 compared with an estimate of about 25,000 now , according to the Brookings Institution .
These numbers depend on the speed of the disease ’ s spread and the severity of infections , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ produce around 200 ventilators a week and need to make 10 times that number , according to Bloomberg Intelligence industrials and medical equipment analyst Nikkie Lu .
The Indian government is urging local automakers to get involved .
In the U.K. and Europe , the likes of McLaren Automotive Ltd. and Mercedes AMG High Performance Powertrains Ltd. are helping out .
GM is sourcing 419 direct parts from 91 so-called tier-1 suppliers for ventilators made at its Kokomo plant in Indiana .
While a significant portion are produced in North America , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including China .
GM is helping increase sourcing capacity within the supply chain of its ventilator partner Ventec Life Systems Inc. , and is having to develop new sources of parts in its own .
While China is reopening for business and putting a priority on medical equipment , other countries are in lockdown .
That ’ s making it increasingly tough to get the right products to manufacturers , particularly where operations are dispersed .
For example , New Zealand ventilator maker Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp. sources components from China for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ResMed Inc. , a San Diego-based company that makes a ventilator used during the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak , does most of its manufacturing in Singapore and Sydney .
There are other obstacles .
This is a niche industry that ’ s complex and highly regulated .
China has more than 20 mechanical ventilator makers that produce about 2,200 machines a week or about a fifth of total global output ; only eight are certified to sell in Europe .
Medical devices need to be produced in sterile and clean-room certified conditions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up isn ’ t a simple matter .
In recent weeks , some countries have complained of faulty tests and medical equipment coming from China .
Officials there banned the export of medical supplies that don ’ t meet China ’ s standards .
Then there ’ s protectionism .
Trade barriers are going up in dozens of countries as the world moves into survival mode .
Having shipped key medical supplies abroad going into the crisis , the U.S. has now joined the trend , using the defense act to order 3M @ @ @ @ @ @ @ masks to some nations and prioritize sales to the federal government .
The U.S.-China trade war had already showed up the fragility of global supply chains .
Covid-19 and the rush to make ventilators will be a telling marker of how effectively they still function .
Conditions could hardly be more difficult for such a critical test .


washingtonpost--2020-04-08--Global Cases Top 1.5 Million; WHO Urges Solidarity: Virus Update

Starbucks Corp. said a sharp slowdown from the coronavirus pandemic will worsen before getting better , with the financial impact extending as far as September .
The company based its assessment on the tentative recovery in the Chinese market , its most important along with the U.S .
The coffee chain went through social distancing and mandatory closures in the Asian nation earlier in the year , giving it an early glimpse at how the situation would play out in the U.S. and elsewhere .
Bavaria ’ s state premier cast doubt over the annual Oktoberfest , offering an idea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic to upend social life .
Markus Soeder , a political ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel , told the Bild newspaper that a decision will be taken in June , but that widespread travel and border openings by then are “ very unlikely.
” The traditional beer festival , which draws millions to the Bavarian capital of Munich , is scheduled to start Sept. 19 and last two weeks .
If it takes place at all , “ it will be under completely different conditions , ” Soeder told Bild .
“ We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ understands we ’ re moving to a new phase , ” said Bruce Aylward , one of the WHO ’ s top officials who recently led a mission to Spain .
Countries need to make sure they ’ re hunting the disease down , because the key to eradication is testing patients , isolating them and tracing their close contacts .
Some restrictions may need to continue for some time while others are gradually loosened , he said .
“ It ’ s not lifting lockdowns and going back to normal .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Southern States Start Reopenings; N.Y. Deaths Slow: Virus Update

The presence of antibodies , though , doesn ’ t necessarily mean someone is immune to the virus .
Antibody @ @ @ @ @ virus that causes Covid-19 , are new to market , and there is evidence that @ @ @ @ @ well as they should .
Still , the tests are regarded as crucial to reopening @ @ @ @ @ studies conducted so far have confirmed suspicions that the number of infections in the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ significantly under-counted .
The U.S. economy won ’ t recover until the virus is under @ @ @ @ @ He said his message to the protesters is that “ this is something that is @ @ @ @ @ economics ” but that reopening too soon could cause even more harm .
His comments @ @ @ @ @ Good Morning America ” contrasted with remarks made by Trump , who has encouraged the @ @


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Analysis | America Was Late to the N95 Mask Party

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washingtonpost--2020-01-22--Analysis | Why China’s Mystery Illness Is Reviving Fears of SARS

There is always a concern when a new pathogen emerges in a population because people typically lack immunity to it , and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel coronaviruses ( not seen in humans before ) represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , like SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
The outbreak in Wuhan , a city of 11 million , that began in mid-December appears severe .
A few cases have been confirmed elsewhere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arriving from Wuhan .
Initially it seemed the virus wasn ’ t transmitted readily between people , reducing the potential of it spawning a SARS-like outbreak .
But on Jan. 20 the World Health Organization confirmed “ some limited human-to-human transmission , ” not just from animals to humans .
Chinese state media also reported health-care workers had been infected .
That put the Wuhan virus in a category similar to SARS .
At this stage , it appears to be less virulent , and less deadly , than SARS .
Of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus , at least some were people who already were seriously ill .
Regular pneumonia kills about 50,000 people annually in the U.S .
Mainly fever , with some patients experiencing fatigue , a dry cough and difficulty breathing .
Chest X-rays have shown invasive lesions of both lungs , the WHO said .
However , only cases requiring hospitalization have been reported so far .
It ’ s possible other people have been infected and experienced no , or only mild , symptoms .
Many people have recovered and been discharged from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ novel coronavirus in one of the pneumonia patients in Wuhan after conducting gene sequencing .
The WHO has labeled the new virus 2019-nCoV .
A report done for the International Journal of Infectious Diseases found it is at least 70 % similar in its genetic makeup to the SARS virus , but “ appears clinically milder ” in terms of severity , fatality rate and transmissibility .
Genomic data was made publicly available in mid-January , enabling scientists anywhere to study its genetic fingerprint for clues about where and how it might have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the seafood market , where most people infected early in the outbreak either worked or shopped frequently .
It has been closed since Jan. 1 , though cases continued to appear , including in people who hadn ’ t gone there .
That raised the possibility that the pathogen is lurking more widely in the city .
Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered resolute efforts to curb its spread ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday , which falls on Jan. 24 this year .
Many people travel for the celebrations .
Authorities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ service .
Airports have begun screening some passengers for symptoms , including in the U.S. China ’ s health commission decided to include the coronavirus in the Class B infectious diseases category , which includes SARS , while taking preventive steps typically used for the most-serious ailments , such as cholera and plague .
Patients have been isolated to prevent any spread .
Health officials are also looking for , screening and monitoring people the patients had contact with , and searching for current and past cases that may have been treated in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ samples from the closed market have been taken for analysis .
There are parallels .
Both viruses emerged in China .
SARS is thought to have spread indirectly from a “ wildlife reservoir , ” believed to be bats , to humans via masked palm civets and other species in live-animal markets .
The SARS outbreak began in late 2002 in Guangdong province and spread across the border to Hong Kong and beyond .
The WHO issued a global health alert in March 2003 and didn ’ t declare the outbreak contained until @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s tourism , transportation and retail sectors were heavily hit as people stayed home ; domestic consumption fell sharply , as did real estate prices and financial markets .
The epidemic subtracted an estimated 0.8 percentage point from gross domestic product growth in China in 2003 , according to a China Daily report that cited a National Bureau of Statistics official .
A 2003 academic study estimated the global economic cost at close to $ 40 billion or more .
There ’ s a large family of them , with some causing less-severe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ easily from person to person , while others do not .
There ’ s growing recognition of the role of coronaviruses in cases of severe pneumonia .
The WHO says that new ones emerge periodically in different areas globally , and several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that haven ’ t infected humans .
They tend to morph and mutate a lot , which means the level of risk they pose can change the longer they circulate .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ newly identified infectious diseases .


washingtonpost--2020-02-23--Analysis | OPEC Emperor Saudi Arabia Has Fallen For Russia’s Tricks

So why does Saudi Arabia continue to tolerate the unwieldy situation in return for very little in the way of real output cuts ?
Here ’ s my take , with a bit of artistic license : Salman , Prince of the Desert and Emperor of the lands of OPEC , was worried .
The empire over which his country had held sway for nearly 60 years was beset on all sides by threats .
His uncle , Sam , who had hitherto depended on the oil from the desert kingdom and its allies , had recently harnessed a wild @ @ @ @ @ @ @ riches of the realm .
Salman needed to burnish his image , so he decided to take in his old suit of clothes for a makeover to restore its luster and his country ’ s reputation as the most important oil broker in the world .
Over many months Salman courted Vladimir , persuading him and Alexander to give the suit an elegant new look fit for an emperor .
Eventually , after much deliberation , Vladimir and Alexander agreed .
Along with a coterie of assistant tailors from around the globe , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The cuts used would be so fine as to be invisible to anyone unworthy of their position in life , or hopelessly stupid .
The tailors toiled away .
At the end of each month they exhibited the progress of their work — cuts so subtle that the emperor marveled at their skill , even though he couldn ’ t quite make out where they ’ d been made .
But it would never do for him to admit that he couldn ’ t see where Vladimir and Alexander had trimmed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the other countries in the OPEC empire were all so enthusiastic in their praise of the tailors from Rus .
There was only one problem .
Clearly quite remarkably stupid , traders in the markets of New York , London , Singapore and other far-flung bazaars were not impressed with the tailors ’ work .
No matter how long Vladimir and Alexander kept on with their clever snipping , OPEC ’ s reputation continued to wither .
Some began to point their fingers .
“ Those cuts being made by the tailors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” people said .
Pretty soon , it became apparent that the Emperor of OPEC had been hoodwinked by the tailors .
But the poor emperor was trapped .
Salman had invested so much effort in persuading Vladimir to lead the tailors of OPEC+ that it had become impossible to admit that their oh-so-fine cuts were illusory .
And then disaster struck !
A great pestilence swept the nations of the east , throwing them into disarray and slashing their trade with the Empire of OPEC .
Salman called for yet more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were not convinced .
They were quite happy with the way things were .
After all , the countries of the east were much closer to Rus than they were to the Empire of OPEC , and their own trade was holding up pretty well , thank you .
“ Let ’ s wait and see , ” they said .
“ No need to rush into doing something unnecessary.
” It was then that it dawned on the poor Emperor of OPEC that the tailors of Rus were not the miracle workers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he wasn ’ t quite able to bring himself to admit that the alterations they had made were an illusion .
Possibly , just possibly , those tailors would one day deliver those exquisite cuts they promised , maybe after their next get together in March .


washingtonpost--2020-02-23--Analysis | Virus Investors Don’t Need No (Online) Education

Giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. , for example , added 100,000 servers to support its free DingTalk messenger , which is being used across the country to help pupils communicate with teachers and watch online classes .
A similar tale is told at WeChat provider Tencent Holdings Ltd .
Even San Fransciso-based Seesaw Learning Inc. , developer of an early-childhood learning and communication app with less than 10 % of revenue from China , saw a 31 % jump in traffic from there and 21 % from Hong Kong .
Co-founder Adrian Graham admits it ’ s hard to tell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ post-new year usage increases or the impact of quarantined kids at the mostly international schools in the Greater China region that use the product.As a result , this could be the biggest sustained , mass experiment in online education since the internet was founded in the 1980s .
But for those who specialize in education as a business , there ’ s little to suggest a surge of online students will boost the bottom line .
In China , the commercial education business is driven chiefly by demand for after-school tuition ( AST @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also known as cram schools , which are owned and operated by these providers , children as young as kindergartners spend an extra few hours after their normal day ( and on weekends and during school holidays ) to bone up on core subjects of Chinese , English and mathematics .
To deal with the quarantines , TAL Education Group , one of China ’ s largest education companies , is moving students from offline classes to its programs and refunding the difference in tuition fees , with online up to 50 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ analysts John Choi and Candis Chan wrote this month .
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. , the other big player in Chinese education and a leader in test-preparation courses , is also moving students to its web and app platforms , they wrote .
A key narrative supporting the thesis for big online education profits is that the massive home-schooled education program now under way will work as great marketing for companies like TAL and New Oriental , which spend a lot of money just getting students to enroll in their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forced to learn via the internet might then be converted to long-term online tuition customers .
That ’ s the theory , anyway .
Take TAL as an example .
Revenue for the three months to Nov. 30 climbed 47 % from the previous year .
Online sales were the major driver , climbing 86 % .
But actual enrollments grew 107 % .
In other words , student numbers rose faster than revenue because average prices actually fell 9 % for the period .
So while online has expanded , it still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ revenue .
The glass-half-full scenario would tell you that there ’ s great potential ahead .
A more pessimistic analysis would suggest that if TAL needs to cut prices this early , then there ’ s not a lot of room to boost profitability as time marches on .
And the company is already suffering pressure that is hurting the bottom line .
Operating margin shrank to 9 % from 12 % in the previous year , with net income plunging 77 % .
New Oriental isn ’ t faring much better .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ its revenue in the latest fiscal year .
The company gets more than 80 % of sales from language training and test preparation .
That indicates that internet-based programs have great potential .
Yet data show New Oriental is struggling to scale .
Subsidiary Koolearn Technology Holding Ltd. , which it spun off and listed in Hong Kong , posted revenue growth of just 19 % in the six months to Nov. 30 .
What ’ s more , operating loss tripled with margin deteriorating from -4.6 % to -16.5 % .
One @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
GSX Techedu Inc. describes itself as “ a leading online K-12 large-class after-school tutoring service provider.
” GSX ’ s niche is massive live online classes — it boasts being able to host 100,000 students in a single broadcast — that allow it to rake in cash while saving on teacher salaries , which account for a major proportion of the costs borne by rivals .
GSX has since been joined in offering massive classes .
More than 2.4 million users are reported to have tuned in for some TAL elementary-school classes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jumping aboard , too .
Alibaba , for example , developed DingTalk for enterprise use .
While it launched a campus-focused program for the product last year , it wasn ’ t until the current crisis that its popularity in education really took off .
Worse for GSX , Alibaba is offering it for free and allowing schools to make use of existing teachers and materials .
So while the outbreak is necessitating internet-based education options , it ’ s also highlighting how cheap online learning can be .
The great thing about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ anyone to deliver content easily and cheaply .
That may not be the outcome education companies really would be hoping for .


washingtonpost--2020-03-03--Analysis | Gold’s Ups and Downs

Analysis | Gold’s Ups and Downs

Bullion ’ s time-honored appeal as a haven from unexpected events is demonstrated again and again : It surged to a seven-year high as the coronavirus began to sweep the globe in early 2020 , and briefly spiked after Donald Trump ’ s upset victory in the U.S. presidential election in 2016 .
In between there were two years of steady prices , with every rally capped as gold approached $ 1,350 an ounce .
That began to change in 2019 , when slowing global economic growth , worries over tensions in the Middle East and a trade war between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the belief that riskier assets would continue climbing .
Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds hit a record , hedge funds bet on higher prices and central banks piled in .
In February 2020 , Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that gold was acting as a haven of last resort , and predicted that the price could top $ 1,800 an ounce within months if the virus outbreak worsens .
With interest rates and bond yields at historic lows , the opportunity cost of owning gold has largely evaporated .
Discarded as a monetary @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ended in the 1970s , gold spiked to $ 850 in 1980 on a bout of inflation .
Prices slumped in the following two decades as central banks around the world shrank their reserves and miners locked in prices for future production .
The launch of the first gold ETF in 2003 , which made it possible for retail and equity-market investors to directly access the metal via their stockbrokers , set off a wave of gold buying that lifted prices for almost a decade .
Then the 2008 financial crisis sent prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2011 as money was parked in havens on fear that bond-buying by central banks would lead to hyperinflation .
Even so , some investors never warmed to gold .
Legendary business guru Warren Buffett expressed his disdain for the metal because it has no inherent yield and isn ’ t productive like , say , companies or farmland .
He wrote in 2012 that investors in gold are motivated by their “ belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow.
” More than perhaps any other investment , bullion acts as an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financial system and the ability of central bankers to keep economic growth going .
Gold bears say it is a relic of history and that there are better ways of hedging against uncertainty , including financial instruments such as derivatives .
Bulls say it offers them a simpler way to protect against a wider range of risks .
Demand for gold is supported by rising incomes in China , India and other Asian countries , where families often buy it for dowries and there are fewer safe stores of wealth .
In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ known as “ gold bugs , ” believe it should be restored to its place as the guarantor of government-issued currencies .
Even one of Trump ’ s nominees for the Federal Reserve was historically an advocate of returning to the gold standard .
But ultimately , gold ’ s reputation for withstanding the effects of inflation — at the cost of sacrificing yield — comes into its own when interest rates on bonds drop below the rate of general price increases .
Compared with the trillions of dollars ’ worth of bonds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , gold is shining once again .


washingtonpost--2020-03-03--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Spreading Coronavirus

It has been described as “ insidious ” because many infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , unwittingly spreading it to others .
As of February the apparent mortality rate was about 2 % .
Such numbers are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak .
Some disease-modeling experts project as many as hundreds of thousands of people are actually infected , most of whom don ’ t even know they have it .
One study published Feb. 10 estimated a mortality rate of 1 % once all cases , including those with no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A related coronavirus killed 9.5 % of patients in the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS , and another known as MERS-CoV has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded since 2012 .
In those outbreaks , however , the viruses didn ’ t transmit from one person to another as efficiently as this new one appears to do .
Certainly , they didn ’ t spread as widely as fast .
In the worst pandemic in recent history , an estimated 50 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that had a case-fatality ratio of about 2 % but infected as much as a third of the world ’ s population .
Symptoms begin to appear on average five to six days after infection .
Infections appear to cause a mild illness lasting about two weeks in children , adolescents and younger adults in most cases , and potentially more severe disease lasting three to six weeks in older people .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , dry cough , tiredness and sputum production -- but not the sneezing and runny @ @ @ @ @ @ @ severe cases , studies suggest the virus invades cells in the lower respiratory tract and migrates to the lungs , causing difficulty breathing and the inflammation and congestion associated with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with underlying illnesses such as cardiovascular disease .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found most deaths occurred in patients over 60 years old .
Of all confirmed cases , 81 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ severe and 4.7 % critical .
By coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that are emitted when an infected person breathes , talks , coughs or sneezes , according to the WHO ’ s first comprehensive report on Covid-19 .
These droplets can be transferred directly to someone else in close proximity or via hands and surfaces .
How long it survives on surfaces is still not known , but preliminary studies suggest coronaviruses may remain infectious from a few hours to a few days .
Simple disinfectants kill it .
There ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread through feces or farther through the air in tiny particles known as aerosols .
People who are still incubating the virus and show no symptoms may spread it .
Health authorities are increasingly concerned about what ’ s known as community spread , where the virus begins circulating freely among people outside of known contacts with other patients .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people a person who is infected is likely to infect .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
A study of an outbreak aboard a cruise ship concluded that the r0 for Covid-19 was 2.28 .
That would make it more infectious than seasonal flu .
A group from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing estimated the r0 at 4.08 in late January .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them , responsible for diseases that range in severity from the common cold to MERS .
Some transmit easily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do not .
The WHO says that new strains emerge periodically around the globe , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is closely related to several coronaviruses found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
There is always concern when a new human pathogen emerges because people typically lack immunity to it and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel coronaviruses -- those unseen in humans before -- represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , as SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ been hospitalized in isolation wards and hundreds are being treated in intensive care units , creating what officials there have described as an “ extreme , severe and abrupt public health crisis.
” While cases have risen in countries including South Korea , Italy , Iran and Japan , it still isn ’ t clear how deadly the disease will be .
The last pandemic , an outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 flu in 2009 , infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and may have killed as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first year it circulated , with about 80 % of them younger than age 65 , according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
In contrast , the risk of death from the new coronavirus , as well as from seasonal flu , appears to be highest in the elderly .
China ’ s government imposed a quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in the region that ’ s keeping some 50 million people mainly at home .
New hospitals were built from the ground up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ medical equipment ramped up .
The WHO declared the outbreak a global health emergency , a designation that can help mobilize international responses .
The U.S. , Australia , India and other countries were denying or restricting entry for non-citizens arriving from China in an attempt to stop the virus ’ s spread .
Various countries have also restricted travel to and from other countries where the outbreak has accelerated , including South Korea , Italy and Iran .
President Donald Trump appointed Vice President Mike Pence to lead the federal response in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ preparations .
The WHO asked donors for $ 675 million , mainly to help poor countries deal with the epidemic .
With Covid-19 showing up in more countries , health officials began to switch their goal from stopping its spread to preparing for it .
Early praise for China ’ s response has ebbed .
The country did not immediately release genetic information about the virus and has struggled to explain changes in the way it counts new cases .
In a nation where the internet is heavily censored , there was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the death from the virus of a Chinese doctor who had waved an early red flag about the outbreak but was silenced by police .
The top officials in Wuhan and Hubei were later removed from their posts .
But China ’ s strict quarantine likely bought the rest of the world two to three weeks to prepare for the virus and averted many infections , according to the WHO .
Reductions in travel , business closures and disruptions in supply chains have slowed economic activity , especially in China and among its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Economic Cooperation and Development warned that the Covid-19 crisis posed the “ greatest danger ” to the world economy since the financial crisis more than a decade ago .
With global growth already on course for its weakest pace since 2009 , the group said a “ longer lasting ” outbreak could result in recession-like expansion of just 1.5 % this year .


washingtonpost--2020-03-02--Analysis | We Need to Prepare for Pandemics. They’ll Keep Coming

This is our world in 2020 , after we ’ ve dealt with SARS , MERS , the avian flu and Ebola in close succession , and are now confronted with Covid-19 .
The Global Health Security Index ( 4 ) report last year found that all countries , across income levels , weren ’ t ready to handle globally catastrophic biological events ( 3 ) .
Few countries have tested their emergency operations in case of a biological threat and most haven ’ t allocated much funding from their national budgets to be prepared .
The world spends far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spreading , unknown diseases .
Every time there ’ s an epidemic , experts study the damage and assess systemic failures .
A common finding is that financing for preparation was inadequate , leading to slow , expensive efforts to deliver aid .
Even though the World Bank mobilized $ 1.62 billion to help countries hit by Ebola , it was difficult to get the resources there on time .
Reaction costs more than pro-action .
Unprepared health systems see costs spike , and suffer time lags in acquiring and moving resources that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and had ready for rapid deployment .
The annual cost from pandemics is estimated to be as much as $ 570 billion a year .
That includes lost income and increased and early mortality .
Taxpayers foot the extra bill along with the health risks from delayed reaction .
Last week , Chuck Schumer , leader of the U.S. Senate ’ s minority Democrats , asked for $ 8.5 billion in emergency funding .
The Trump administration wants $ 2.5 billion , half of that being new .
Within the first few weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had spent $ 4.5 billion on fighting the coronavirus .
It has since spent hundreds of millions more .
It doesn ’ t have to be this way .
Globally , an incremental $ 4.5 billion a year would make the world much safer , according to a commission convened by the U.S. National Academy of Medicine .
That ’ s about 65 cents per person .
Of this amount , around $ 3.4 billion would be for upgrading national-level pandemic preparedness and $ 1 billion for research and development around infectious diseases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 6 billion .
It would help with the immediate needs that epidemics require , like testing and collecting data as the disease spreads so that vaccines can be developed and then produced on a large scale .
A big challenge for vaccines is that traditional methods of manufacturing proteins “ are too slow for responding to an epidemic , ” Bill Gates wrote in a paper for the New England Journal of Medicine .
South Korea has the largest number of cases outside China .
It ’ s one of the countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lessons from the avian flu in 2009 , according to the Global Health Security Index ranking .
Until Feb. 17 , there were only 30 known cases of Covid-19 .
Then it emerged that several members of a religious sect were infected .
Two weeks later , South Korea is testing more than 30,000 people and confirmed over 4,000 cases .
The country is now getting together a supplementary budget of 6.2 trillion won ( $ 5.12 billion ) to deal with the coronavirus .
Governments need to run mock pandemic drills .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ for when an infectious disease arrives , which it inevitably will .
If a government doesn ’ t adequately fund its public health system , then getting trained care workers to man hospital beds won ’ t matter , even if there are enough in the first place .
Healthcare and security budgets need to allocate money to maintain stockpiles of antiviral drugs , medical equipment and other supplies to fend off biological risks .
Nations spend astronomic sums preparing for war .
World military expenditure rose to $ 1.82 trillion in 2018 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the charts .
Consider , also , the billions that have chased Silicon Valley startups for dog-walking , autonomous vehicles , or other futuristic and fanciful ideas .
But military contracts are lucrative ; private tech investments promise huge returns and big payouts .
Arguably , the threat is lower for war than pandemics .
The clear and present danger of a virus – as we face today with our masks on – is far higher .
It ’ s no wonder we ’ re living in a state of paranoia of infection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to outright containment .
It comes down to reducing deaths and averting economic damage by slowing the spread and fatality rate .
To do that , we need to be prepared .
( 2 ) The report defines high-consequence biological events as infectious disease outbreaks that could overwhelm national or international capacity to manage them .
It includes those “ that could be caused by the international spread of a new or emerging pathogen or by the deliberate or accidental release of a dangerous or engineered agent or organism .
”


washingtonpost--2020-03-03--Analysis | What If You Can’t Afford to Fight Coronavirus?

The science and spending that rich countries are able to marshal in the face of epidemic disease is inadequate to the task at hand , as my colleague Anjani Trivedi has written .
It ’ s nonetheless awesome in its size and speed , and reassuring for those of us who expect to be facing spreading infections in the coming weeks and months .
That makes the dearth of similar measures in lower-income countries all the more gratuitous .
Nearly three-quarters of all deaths from infectious disease in 2016 happened in sub-Saharan Africa , South Asia and Southeast Asia .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ from infections , the rate in Africa is more than 40 % .
( 2 ) Conditions such as HIV , diarrhea and malaria have seen precipitous declines south of the Sahara in recent years , but diseases of the nose , throat and lungs like influenza remain far more prevalent .
After cardiovascular and neonatal conditions , respiratory infections are now the leading cause of death in Africa .
To date , most lower-income and lower-middle-income countries have been mercifully free of reported coronavirus cases .
Sub-Saharan Africa has recorded just two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ India has had five named cases ; Indonesia , two .
Absence of evidence doesn ’ t mean evidence of absence , though .
The community surveillance that picks up infections and chains of transmission is far harder in countries where the public health system is less equipped to handle major outbreaks .
Just 168 of the 18,500 deaths reported to the World Health Organization from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic were from Africa , but a 2013 study used disease modeling to estimate that the true burden on the continent was about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the continent ’ s 15 % share of the global population .
With a disease like Covid-19 that appears to spread unnoticed , it ’ s possible that the rate of infection in these countries is already higher than has been recorded .
The background level of disease makes responding to new outbreaks even harder .
Coronavirus , like influenza , appears to be particularly fatal among those with existing conditions .
That ’ s likely to be a problem in Africa , where about two-thirds of the world ’ s HIV-positive people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the Democratic Republic of Congo is only just slowing down .
Even if you don ’ t catch the coronavirus , you stand a higher chance of dying during a pandemic in a country with a bigger burden of disease and less developed health system .
By overwhelming hospitals and clinics , major outbreaks decrease the quality of care and raise the risk of mortality for everyone .
Almost all of the countries the World Bank deems to be least-prepared to handle pandemics are in Africa , South Asia and Southeast Asia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , since major outbreaks can leave long-lasting scars on an economy .
Diseases shrink the labor force by sending people to convalesce at home , reducing their ability to work , or , in the worst case , killing them .
A 1 % increase in life expectancy results in a 5 % increase in per-capita GDP , according to one analysis .
Four years after the 2014 Ebola epidemic , Sierra Leone and Liberia had still not recovered the levels of income per capita they enjoyed on its eve .
That ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in particular rich countries — to take this opportunity to spend the $ 1.69 or so per person that would be needed to bring all the world ’ s health systems up to scratch .
The burden of poor health in the developing world impoverishes us all .
( 1 ) The data are based on World Health Organization sub-regions , which have some minor differences with conventional definitions of those regions ; the WHO ’ s Africa sub-region , for instance , includes Algeria , while Southeast Asia doesn ’ t include @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-03-26--U.S. Surpasses China for Most Infections Worldwide: Virus Update

Cuomo reported 100 more fatalities , for a total of 385 , as hospitals brace for more .
The city is deploying refrigerated trailers for use as temporary morgues .
Until the outbreak is under control , Cuomo said officials are focused on reducing the rate of increase , not the reducing the number of cases , so hospitals don ’ t run out of beds .
The U.K. is ready to crack down on coughing as a way to threaten or intimidate police officers and shop workers .
The nation ’ s prosecution office issued a statement after reports @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people claiming to be infected .
That could lead to assault charges and two years in jail , the prosecution service said .
Earlier , Robert Bosch GmbH said it developed a test that can diagnose Covid-19 in less than 2.5 hours .
The new test uses the Vivalytic molecular diagnostics platform made by Bosch ’ s healthcare division , used in hospitals , laboratories and medical practices .
Patients typically must wait one or two days before they get test results .
Separately , U.K.-based Mologic Ltd. has sent prototypes of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before it can begin full-scale manufacturing .
The company and its partner , the Senegalese research foundation Institut Pasteur de Dakar , have developed a finger-prick test to determine whether a person had the illness and the state of their immune system .
The company is also working on a separate saliva test to detect the presence of the virus .


washingtonpost--2020-03-26--Analysis | The Law Trump Could Use to Order More Ventilators

Yes , and without making headlines .
The Department of Defense , for instance , “ routinely ” uses the law to make sure military-related orders are given priority within the U.S. supply chain , according to the Congressional Research Service .
The Federal Emergency Management Agency has used it after natural disasters to prioritize contracts for manufactured housing , food and bottled water , and other supplies .
Two decades ago , President Bill Clinton was criticized for using the law to order suppliers to sell natural gas to California -- at prices some senators said were far below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ credit crunches .
Trump himself has employed elements of the law to boost production of rare earth elements , small drones and sensors to detect submarines , among other products .
His administration has also considered using it to help the coal and nuclear industries .
Governors facing shortages of ventilators and personal protective equipment used by doctors and nurses have urged the Trump administration to use the law to ramp up production .
On March 18 , Trump formally invoked the law with an executive order “ prioritizing and allocating health and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Covid-19.
” But four days later , on March 22 , Trump said action under the law wasn ’ t needed because “ tremendous numbers of companies , ” including 3M Co. and General Electric Co. , had stepped forward voluntarily to make needed equipment .
“ The federal government stands ready to compel cooperation if need be .
We haven ’ t found that to be the case , ” he said .
But he also suggested that using the law means “ nationalizing our business ” as a socialist country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fact , the law doesn ’ t mean the government taking ownership of any companies , which is what nationalization implies . )
In addition to requiring that its orders be given priority , the government can create incentives for manufacturers , such as providing them with direct loans or loan guarantees ; buy equipment for them ; and waive antitrust restrictions that could discourage industry cooperation .
The law allows the government to control the use of scarce resources , such as by requiring companies to reserve materials to fulfill federal orders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for materials the president designates as scarce .
Failing to comply with the law can lead to financial penalties or imprisonment .
Normally , Congress would have to pass legislation to approve the law for certain projects that cost more than $ 50 million .
But lawmakers have discussed temporarily waive a variety of notification and approval requirements so the administration could act more quickly .


washingtonpost--2020-03-26--House Members Get a Virus Voting Protocol Memo: Congress Update

The House sergeant at arms sent members a list of precautionary measures and rules they should observe if they have to be present in the Capitol building to vote on Friday .
The instructions include avoiding riding in elevators together and using hand sanitizer before entering and departing the chamber .
House leaders say they ’ d like to pass the Senate bill swiftly with a voice vote , which would not require members to be on the House floor .
But any lawmaker could block that process and demand a recorded vote .
The memo states that during debate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House floor will be limited to those who are scheduled to speak .
Unless participating in the debate , the lawmakers are encouraged to “ refrain from grouping ” and to remain in their offices until the voting begins .
Additionally , C-Span announced Thursday that in response to a request by House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer it would air pre-recorded videos by lawmakers explaining their positions on the stimulus bill .
The videos will air in prime time next week , the network said .
Pelosi said in an interview on Bloomberg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whatsoever ” that the stimulus bill will pass the House Friday and that the vote should be finished by noon after a “ lively ” debate .
“ We ’ ll have a strong bipartisan vote and hopefully by noon we ’ ll be finished ; that will only depend on how carefully we have to come in , in small numbers to the floor of the House to vote , ” Pelosi said .
She said she hopes the next round of legislation will include funding for infrastructure , in addition to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
To speed up the loans to small businesses that are provided in this week ’ s legislation , Pelosi said she spoke with Mnuchin and that banks will carry out the lending with the supervision of the Small Business Administration .
“ We will have a debate and a voice vote .
I don ’ t think there will be a need for anything else , ” he said .
Pelosi said there are more needs to be met in the next phase of coronavirus bills , beyond what was addressed in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there needs to be a broader definition of who qualifies for family and medical leave , stronger occupational safety and health protections , pension protection , and increases in food stamps and payments to the poor .
In addition , she said , “ we need an endless number of ventilators ” for coronavirus patients .
Another thing “ we have to insist upon ” is follow-up treatment for those who test positive for the virus , without a copay .
Some members of Pelosi ’ s own Democratic caucus and some House @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the massive package of loans , tax breaks and other economic stimulus benefits to corporations and individuals .
The legislation was approved by the Senate on a 96-0 vote just before midnight Wednesday .
The House plans a voice vote Friday morning , which will allow passage without most House members having to travel to Washington , although anyone who opposes the measure can show up and vote against it .


washingtonpost--2020-05-01--U.S. Cases Increase 1.2%, Slowest Pace This Month: Virus Update


washingtonpost--2020-01-20--Analysis | How China’s Mystery Pneumonia Illness is Different From SARS

There is always a concern when a new pathogen emerges in a population because people typically lack immunity to it , and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel coronaviruses ( not seen in humans before ) represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people .
The outbreak in Wuhan , a city of 11 million , appears severe .
Scores of people have been hospitalized since mid-December -- some in serious condition .
Fatalities have been reported .
Cases have been confirmed in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China involving travelers arriving from Wuhan .
On the other hand , many patients have recovered and been discharged and there haven ’ t been any reported cases of health-care workers becoming infected , which supports early findings that the disease isn ’ t transmitted easily from person to person .
That reduces the potential of it spawning an outbreak like SARS , which began in China and swept across the globe , infecting thousands of people .
Mainly fever , with some patients experiencing fatigue , a dry cough and difficulty breathing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of both lungs , the World Health Organization said .
However , only cases requiring hospitalization have been reported so far .
It ’ s possible other people have been infected and experienced no , or only mild , symptoms .
Chinese authorities identified a novel coronavirus in one of the pneumonia patients hospitalized in Wuhan after conducting gene sequencing .
The WHO has labeled the new virus 2019-nCoV .
Genomic data was made publicly available in mid-January , enabling scientists outside China to study its genetic fingerprint for clues about where and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ report prepared for the International Journal of Infectious Diseases found it is at least 70 % similar in its genetic makeup to the SARS virus , but “ appears clinically milder ” in terms of severity , fatality rate and transmissibility .
Like the source of the virus , the way it spreads is also unknown .
The WHO quoted the Chinese authorities as saying it doesn ’ t transmit readily between people .
Investigators have focused on the wholesale market in Wuhan , where most people infected early in the outbreak either @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been closed since New Year ’ s Day , though cases have continued to appear , including in people who hadn ’ t gone to the fish market .
That raised the possibility that the pathogen is lurking more widely in the city -- a worrying prospect ahead of the Lunar New Year ( on Jan. 25 this year ) , which spurs frenzied grocery shopping , including sometimes exotic foods .
There ’ s a large family of them , with some causing less-severe diseases , some more .
Some transmit easily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do not .
There ’ s growing recognition of the role of coronaviruses in cases of severe pneumonia .
The WHO says that new ones emerge periodically in different areas globally , and several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that haven ’ t infected humans .
They tend to morph and mutate a lot , which means the level of risk they pose can change the longer they circulate .
It can vary .
HIV , for example , wasn ’ t discovered as the cause of AIDS for years .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China ’ s top doctors were initially adamant they were dealing with pneumonia caused by chlamydia , a sexually transmissible bacterium .
China fired its then health minister , Zhang Wenkang , for mishandling that crisis .
Wuhan houses China ’ s first maximum bio-containment laboratory , built in 2015 to investigate the planet ’ s most dangerous pathogens , so it ’ s well placed for the current outbreak .
Scientists there have probably been screening a number of possible culprits .
In mid-January , specialists from outside mainland China were invited @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Wuhan say they are providing the best possible medical care .
Patients have been isolated to prevent any potential spread .
Health officials are also looking for , screening and monitoring people the patients had contact with , and searching for current and past cases that may have been treated in medical institutions throughout the city .
Environmental samples from the closed market have been taken for analysis .
There are some , albeit narrow , parallels .
Both emerged in China .
In the case of SARS , it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ wildlife reservoir , ” believed to be bats , to humans via masked palm civets and other species in live-animal markets .
The Wuhan outbreak has also been linked to live-animal markets , making it possible the infectious agent has an animal origin .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .