washingtonpost--2020-06-12--Beijing Shuts Some Markets; London Stores to Open: Virus Update

Beijing shut down the capital ’ s largest wholesale vegetable market – Xinfadi market – from 3 a.m. Saturday to curb the spread of Covid-19 after the virus was detected among a few business owners and their equipment .
Swabs taken from the throats of 45 people at the market tested positive , and they had no clinical symptoms , the Beijing city government said in a statement Saturday .
Stores on Oxford Street , London ’ s most famous shopping thoroughfare , will open Monday for the first time since March .
After locking down to slow the spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capital and across England are desperate to get back to business .
They ’ re rushing to install sneeze screens , “ sanitation stations , ” and distancing measures to make shopping safer once they open their doors .
Thailand reported five more coronavirus cases Saturday , taking the total in the country to 3,134 .
So far , 58 people have died in the country , none overnight , the government said in a statement .
All the five people who reported positive came back from Saudi Arabia and have been quarantined @ @ @ @ @ @ @ airport ’ s passenger volume slumped 99 % last month from a year earlier while cargo throughput dropped 6.8 % , the Airport Authority Hong Kong said on its website .
Freighter movements increased 29 % , it said .
Cargo exports experienced an 11 % year-on-year increase in May , with North America showing the strongest growth .
The overall decline in cargo throughput was mainly attributed to the decrease in transshipments and imports due to the reduced belly capacity of passenger flights .
Traffic to and from key trading regions in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ significant drops .
About 40 employees of state-owned Steel Authority of India Ltd. , including its chairman and some executive directors , working out of its New Delhi office , have tested positive for Covid-19 .
Barring two , who are to be hospitalized , all others are asymptomatic and are in home quarantine , the Financial Express newspaper reported , citing a company employee it didn ’ t identify .
South Korea became one of the world ’ s leading virus success stories by learning from past experiences .
Now it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of clusters to prepare for what officials say will be an inevitable second wave .
South Korea launched a massive , technology-reliant testing and tracing campaign , a by-product of lessons learned from its bitter experience with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome in 2015 .
The CDC also advised anyone at large gatherings to wear masks , keep six feet apart and wash hands , but officials wouldn ’ t be drawn in by questions about whether political events should take place .
President Donald Trump will hold a rally in Oklahoma next week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ settings where individuals might raise their voice , ” the CDC guidance said .
The agency also recommended limiting attendance to allow for distancing .
“ The virus is actually starting and will wreak more havoc , ” said World Health Organization head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus .
Most countries are in the throes of the first wave , and the risk of a second wave is present for any country exiting lockdowns , said Mike Ryan , head of the WHO ’ s health emergencies program .
Ryan said he ’ s concerned @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Southern Hemisphere , and Tedros said the pandemic is accelerating in low- and middle-income countries .
It ’ s most active in the Americas , and governments need to give clear and consistent messaging about it , Tedros said .
Ryan said there ’ s no guarantee any vaccine will arrive in time .
“ We have never seen something like this since 1918 , ” Tedros said , adding that Europe could see a resurgence of cases even as numbers have been dropping recently .
“ No one is safe until everyone @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-06-12--Analysis | How a ‘Second Wave’ Sparks Renewed Pandemic Fears

It ’ s not a scientific term with well-defined parameters .
Rather , it ’ s used to refer to a subsequent , serious increase in cases that occurs after the original surge has been quashed in a given area .
Pandemics are caused by new pathogens that the vast majority of humans have no immune protection against .
That ’ s what allows them to become global outbreaks .
Pandemics are uncommon , but influenza is one of the more frequent causes .
What often happens is that a novel variant of flu virus spreads around the world and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tsunami .
A few months later , it comes back and spreads around the world , or large parts of it , again .
Most countries responded to the pandemic by restricting movement , which slows the virus ’ s spread but leaves many people vulnerable to infection once they begin to venture out again .
Parts of the U.S. including Texas , California and Florida have seen localized outbreaks weeks into their re-openings .
Experts are at a loss to explain why ; it ’ s not clear they ’ re linked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been scares in Asia .
Travel restrictions were imposed on more than 100 million people in China ’ s Jilin province , on the border with Russia , after dozens of cases were detected there in May -- a month after China ’ s first lockdown ended in far-away Wuhan .
By early June that outbreak was under control and normal life was resuming .
South Korea , which began easing its social distancing measures in April , suspended plans for further relaxation in June as new infections emerged .
Testing , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to stop a cluster from growing into a wave .
Influenza pandemics can be temporarily beaten back by the change of seasons , moving to the southern hemisphere when the northern half of the globe heats up during its summer , and vice versa .
The virus may also have infected a huge portion of people in most areas , giving them immunity from re-infection and possibly creating so-called herd immunity , which protects those who haven ’ t been infected by curtailing the virus ’ s circulation .
In the case of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around the world adopted movement restrictions on an unprecedented scale and social-distancing measures that combined kept people far enough apart that the virus couldn ’ t easily spread .
Lifting containment measures too quickly may allow cases to start rising anew .
Other factors could lead to a more dramatic increase that might be clearly recognizable as a second wave .
In the case of influenza , there ’ s the onset of cool weather , a factor that may affect the coronavirus , too .
Or the pathogen can mutate .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evolves more or less constantly .
In the latter part of 1918 , a second wave of the historic influenza outbreak occurred and caused most of the deaths in that pandemic .
Some researchers believe it was brought about by a mutation that made the virus again unrecognizable to most people ’ s immune systems .
Another important variable is the movement of the virus to populations that haven ’ t been exposed before and don ’ t have immunity .
The WHO has recommended lifting movement restrictions in stages to test the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ openness .
In any case , experts say , the key to keeping infections low without locking down everyone is to scale up testing and contact tracing .
Health authorities need to find infected people , isolate them and identify their recent contacts , so they can be tested as well and isolated if necessary .
Eventually , it ’ s possible that enough people will become exposed to the coronavirus that herd immunity will develop and it will stop spreading , or that a vaccine against it will be licensed .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Asia never reached the scope of a pandemic .
Though caused by a coronavirus , it wasn ’ t as contagious as the one responsible for Covid-19 .
Its spread was mainly restricted to hospitals and other settings where people came in close contact with the body fluids of infected patients .
Ebola is another pathogen relatively new to humans .
There have been periodic outbreaks in Africa , but while the virus is highly contagious in some settings , it hasn ’ t been sufficiently infectious to spread around the world @ @ @ @

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washingtonpost--2020-05-05--First U.S. Fraud Charges Over PPP Cash Accuse New Englanders

The men were charged just weeks into the U.S. government ’ s effort to provide trillions of dollars in stimulus and relief as coronavirus-related shutdowns have hammered individuals , businesses and markets .
With the move , the Justice Department established itself as an initial line of defense in policing the federal funds before the programs ’ many official inspectors and watchdogs have started their oversight in earnest .
“ These men have earned the distinction of being first in the nation to be charged with allegedly trying to defraud ” the coronavirus relief program , said Joe Bonavolonta , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ FBI ’ s Boston field office .
“ We believe both men lied , cheated and carried out this scheme so they could line their pockets at the expense of small businesses that were teetering on the edge of ruin as a result of this crisis.
” The men , who are also accused of conspiring with each other to submit fraudulent applications , never received the money they sought , according to the Justice Department .
Last week , a top Justice Department official said investigators had already seen signs of fraud @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the $ 660 billion Paycheck Protection Program to provide small-business loans that are in many cases forgivable .
Assistant Attorney General Brian Benczkowski , who runs the department ’ s criminal division , said in an April 30 interview that prosecutors had contacted 15 to 20 of the largest loan processors and the Small Business Administration , which oversees the PPP initiative , as part of an effort to police the trillions of dollars in federal aid being pushed out hastily to blunt the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.Benczkowski said they had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ costs or number of employees or misrepresenting the nature of their business .
Issues were found in both approved and rejected applications .
The Justice ’ s Department ’ s interest in the coronavirus stimulus funds comes as criticism mounts over the PPP , which was intended to help small businesses but has also sent multimillion-dollar checks to large , publicly traded corporations .
In response , the U.S. Treasury Department has urged large companies to return those funds by May 7 and instead seek cash in the capital markets .
U.S. authorities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ launched their investigation about three weeks ago , in response to a tip from local police that one of the men , Staveley , was posing as his brother in real estate transactions .
A search of his email correspondence with Butziger revealed the effort to file the falsified applications for stimulus checks , they said .
While Staveley did own two of the restaurants for which he applied for relief funds , neither was operational and he owned at least one of them in his brother ’ s name ; and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Warwick , Rhode Island , he didn ’ t own at all , they said .
Staveley claimed in loan applications that he had dozens of employees at the three restaurants , prosecutors said .
“ What these men did is wrong and just plain selfish , ” said Aaron Weisman , the U.S. attorney for Rhode Island .
“ It ’ s unconscionable anyone would steal funds from a program intended to help hard-working Americans.
” Prosecutors said that in a subsequent sting , the other man , Butziger , told an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compliance officer that he had seven employees including himself on the payroll for his company , Dock Wireless .
But the Rhode Island State Department of Revenue told the Internal Revenue Service that it had no records of employee wages having been paid in 2020 by Butziger or Dock Wireless , according to the Justice Department .
Staveley and Butziger were charged in federal court in Rhode Island with conspiracy to make false statements and conspiracy to commit bank fraud .
Staveley , who prosecutors said also goes by Kurt Sanborn , was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Butziger was charged with bank fraud .
The two were arrested on Tuesday , according to the Justice Department .


washingtonpost--2020-06-12--Analysis | Bond Issuers Are Living in the Land of Milk and Honey

Investors are piling into bonds right now as yields are still slightly higher than they were before the crisis , even though the markets have been more stable than in the early days of the lockdowns ( at least until Thursday ’ s rout ) .
This incentive might not last , once the wall of ECB money starts to hit .
This happy confluence of keen sovereigns and eager investors is creating record order books for bond issues , and is allowing issuers to sell debt at longer maturities .
Total syndicated bond sales — where a group of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 1 trillion-euro ( $ 1.14 trillion ) barrier at the earliest time of the year ever .
New issues that offer a juicy premium , when compared with similar existing debt , are especially popular .
But this will doubtless all change as the ECB ’ s overall 1.35 trillion-euro QE program is increasingly put to work .
Sovereign yields might fall and credit spreads ( the difference between corporate bond yields and their benchmarks ) might tighten further .
The ECB has bought almost every eligible new corporate deal recently .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ catching on for governments , who have tended in the past to prefer auctions .
These sales comprise nearly a third of all government debt issued this year .
It may be a marginally more expensive process because of the investment banker fees but it ’ s a surer way of gauging demand for bigger and longer-maturity issues .
This week alone has seen syndicated issues by Germany and the U.K. of 30-year maturities , 20-year sales by Spain and Finland , and 10-year issues from Ireland , Croatia and Greece .
Tuesday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issuance , with 21 deals raising more than 40 billion euros .
Italy brought a 14 billion-euro 10-year syndicated deal last week , with a record order book of more than 107 billion euros .
Rome has raised nearly 50 billion euros in just three weeks , bringing its bond sales so far this year to 290 billion euros .
That ’ s 40 % quicker than last year ’ s fundraising pace .
Italy is so confident that it plans to issue a new type of retail investor bond , called the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s what the unequivocal backing of the ECB does for a country , regardless of their fundamental weakness .
Although European sovereigns are having to raise their fund-raising substantially to cover the spiraling lockdown costs , they are still getting ahead of their annual debt-issuance targets .
Spain has already done three-quarters of its necessary bond sales .
Belgium is in a similar position .
Nonetheless , the summer months do quieten down in the markets .
As state borrowing requirements are only going up , it makes sense to load up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stay open forever .
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners .
Marcus Ashworth is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering European markets .
He spent three decades in the banking industry , most recently as chief markets strategist at Haitong Securities in London .


washingtonpost--2020-06-12--Trump Is Increasingly Alone in Provocative Racial Rhetoric

Even Trump ’ s Senate Republican allies are ahead of the president , with some supporting an amendment to an annual defense bill that could lead to the renaming of the bases .
The House Republican leader and Trump ally , Kevin McCarthy , said he would support the effort .
Trump has said he ’ s open to an executive order on police reform , but at an appearance in Dallas on Thursday , he placed more emphasis on solving problems of police violence toward African-Americans by increasing employment and educational opportunities .
Meanwhile , Senate Republicans are drafting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said she hopes the two parties can address the issue with bipartisan legislation , as her chamber prepares a bill as well .
With Trump ’ s responses to the nationwide protests over police brutality diverging increasingly from even some Republicans , Trump is charting the kind of course he plotted for his surprise 2016 win -- an appeal to white voters in swing states who have said they feel increasingly marginalized by the Democratic Party .
This is putting Republican politicians -- who on other issues have fallen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tough spot .
They need to choose whether to stick with him heading into the general election , or reflect the converging views of Americans and U.S. corporations .
And it carries significant risk for Trump , with voters telling pollsters that they support changes to the way race is addressed in the U.S .
According to a Pew Research Center study released Friday , 60 % of Americans believe the president has delivered the wrong message in response to protests sparked by the death of an unarmed black man , George Floyd @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The “ Black Lives Matter ” movement is supported by majorities of Americans , regardless of their ethnicity , including 60 % of whites .
Almost half of Americans said Trump had made race relations worse in the U.S. On June 2 , Monmouth University reported that 57 % of Americans believe police are more likely to use excessive force against black suspects than white -- including 49 % of white Americans .
That is nearly double the percentage of whites who held that view just four years ago , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ himself a “ law and order ” president while criticizing Democratic municipal leaders for their patience with protesters .
“ The terrorists burn and pillage our cities , and they think it is just wonderful , even the death , ” he said on Friday in a tweet about a so-called “ autonomous zone ” that protesters have established in Seattle .
In choosing to hold his first rally since the virus lockdowns in Oklahoma , Trump is going to comfortable territory -- a reliably Republican state that Democrats aren ’ t seriously @ @ @ @ @ @ @ date and the city have riled both historians and African-Americans for what they see as insensitivity to racial issues .
The rally is scheduled for June 19 , the holiday known as Juneteenth , which commemorates the day in 1865 when Union soldiers read the Emancipation Proclamation to slaves in Texas , freeing them -- two years after President Abraham Lincoln signed the document .
And Tulsa was the site of one of the deadliest white-on-black racial riots almost exactly 99 years ago , when a white mob looted and burned a black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attack sparked after a black man rode an elevator with a white woman .
Dennard said that he raised Tulsa with the president as an example of economic destruction and how long it could take black communities to recover from riots and looting .
Dennard defended Trump ’ s record on race , noting that he opened his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach , Florida to blacks and Jews at a time when competitors would not admit them .
He also said that Trump has made one of the most robust efforts by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from black voters .
Trump ’ s presidency has been marked by dissonance between policy and rhetoric .
The day after declaring he ’ d never rename military bases honoring Confederates , Trump held a roundtable with religious leaders , business owners and law enforcement officials in Dallas .
He touted his program to support economic development in low-income communities as a benefit to black Americans .


washingtonpost--2020-06-12--Analysis | SoftBank Should Take Its Yahoo Merger Live With M17

For inspiration , it can look to the big bet that burnished Masayoshi Son ’ s reputation as an investing guru : Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. China ’ s period of Covid-19 lockdown combined with consumers ’ eagerness to shop highlighted the power of e-commerce live-streaming .
This phenomenon even made superstars , and millionaires , of those with the gift of the gab .
SoftBank is well aware how lucrative video can be in attracting and keeping audiences .
The remaining unicorn in its Vision Fund portfolio that still offers hope of a mega initial public offering , Bytedance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thanks to its short-video services TikTok and Douyin .
Lockdowns helped accelerate uptake from both consumers and creators .
That lines up with a key goal for global internet companies : Beyond merely getting users onto your platform , keep them there .
A minute spent on your app is a minute not spent elsewhere .
It ’ s an extra opportunity to serve up an ad or entice users to shop.The march toward live-streamed e-commerce seems unstoppable .
It makes sense , then , that Z Holdings gets into the business by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ company could do this by building from scratch , but a better way would be to buy an existing player .
Turns out , there ’ s one such startup that could probably benefit from an exit strategy , and be snapped up for less than $ 1 billion .
After a disastrous failed IPO in 2018 — which ended with a co-founder throwing expletives at its banks Citigroup Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG on social media — Taipei-based M17 Entertainment Ltd. has knuckled down and started building what may actually be a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lets content producers broadcast in real time while audiences can reward them with virtual gifts and tokens that are exchangeable for cash .
Competitors include Japan ’ s Showroom , Singapore ’ s Bigo Live , and China ’ s JOYY Inc. and Momo Inc. Bigo itself might have made a good target , but was snapped up by JOYY two years ago .
Showroom could also fit , but it ’ s owned by rival internet company DeNA Co. That makes M17 one of the few live-streaming startups that has the scale @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be attractive for Z Holdings .
Having recently disposed of its internet-dating business Paktor in a curious transaction with a little-known Singapore company , M17 is now focused on expansion into the Japanese market .
Moving away from its Taiwan base has been crucial to shedding the baggage that helped kill its New York Stock Exchange debut two years ago .
Among the investor concerns at the time was that 48 % of revenue came from just 500 big spenders and 71 % went to only 500 content streamers .
Japan was always @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nation of 127 million accounted for 22 % of revenue , versus 72 % for Taiwan ( population 23 million ) .
Revenue in Japan boomed during Covid-19 and as M17 spent more effort expanding overseas .
Even with the knowledge that such an uptick isn ’ t sustainable when life returns to normal , there ’ s the possibility that more consumers have been introduced to the service and may stick around.Combining M17 with the internet properties of Yahoo Japan and the chat app Line could not only lower the cost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for startups , but provide the new owners with yet another way to keep customers on board and spending .
Of course , there ’ s no guarantee such an acquisition won ’ t turn out to be yet another headache for Son and his companies .
At the very least , M17 needs to prove its business can be profitable in its own right .
Merging two internet companies that were heading toward mediocrity was a savvy move for SoftBank .
Adding a fallen angel to the mix could be the brilliant @ @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-03-17--Analysis | Where Are We in Quest for Coronavirus Drugs, Vaccine?: QuickTake

When faced with a new , serious disease causing fatal illness in thousands of patients , doctors often try unproven treatments that they think stand a chance of working .
When they note positive outcomes , they often try to make them public so that others can try the same approach , and perhaps save lives .
But good outcomes don ’ t necessarily mean a treatment is effective .
Patients often recover from viral illness on their own , or improve because of other forms of supportive care such as rest and hydration .
And some really sick patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how effective it is .
That requires carefully structured and monitored tests known as clinical trials .
Typically , these studies are designed to show that patients who get the drug do better than those who don ’ t , and that the results aren ’ t a product of chance .
The trials try to subtract all the other influences and factors that might disguise the true effectiveness of the drug .
Treatments that don ’ t have approval from regulators such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration should be viewed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. Federal Trade Commission have warned multiple companies to stop selling unproven treatments for coronavirus .
It depends .
Drugs that are already approved against one infection and shown to be safe can be tested for effectiveness against another in a matter of months .
Experimental drugs may take longer to test , as they have to go through initial studies to evaluate whether they are safe .
Other factors that can slow the process include the supply of drug candidates and the availability of patients to test them in .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ethics watchdogs and drug regulators .
According to a 2017 review , the median time for regulators to approve a new drug in 2015 was 333 days in the U.S. , 422 days in Europe , and 639 days in China .
China has since expedited its process .
When drugs are deemed to fill an immediate need , regulators can speed them through the approval process using a number of paths .
More than 100 clinical trials have been launched in China to study everything from anti-flu drugs and antibody-containing plasma from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ medicine .
A smaller number have been announced in countries including the U.S. , South Korea and Thailand .
World Health Organization researchers have identified as the most promising agent remdesivir , an experimental antiviral made by Gilead Sciences Inc. originally as a treatment for Ebola .
In animal studies , it produced encouraging results against related coronaviruses that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS ) and Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS ) .
Remdesivir trial results are expected from China in late April .
Among the other agents being tested @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kaletra , an HIV treatment combining two drugs .
Moving at record speed , researchers began preliminary human testing of an experimental Covid-19 vaccine in mid-March in the Seattle area .
It was developed by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in collaboration with the biotechnology company Moderna Inc .
Some of the world ’ s biggest companies also are working on vaccine projects .
GlaxoSmithKline has teamed up with the Chinese-based Clover Biopharmaceuticals , while Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson are in separate collaborations with the U.S. government ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Anthony Fauci , director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , said that it would take about a year and a half to complete trials , scale up production and make a vaccine widely available .
There ’ s no guarantee trials will yield a successful vaccine , however .
SARS killed nearly 800 people in a 2002-2003 outbreak , and there still isn ’ t an approved vaccine .


washingtonpost--2020-02-21--Analysis | How the Novel Coronavirus Can (Maybe) Infect You

It ’ s widely assumed that the virus spreads in respiratory droplets -- spatters of liquid that are sometimes visible to the naked eye -- forcefully expelled from an infected person ’ s cough or sneeze .
These are usually heavy enough to fall immediately to the ground or surrounding surfaces .
Infection could occur if the droplets reach the mouth , nose or possibly the eye of someone nearby , perhaps from an unwashed hand that ’ s touched a contaminated surface .
The World Health Organization recommends avoiding close contact with anyone who has a fever and a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ means keeping at least 1 meter ( 3 feet ) from a sick person and avoiding shaking hands , hugging and kissing people with the symptoms .
The possibility of transmission through the eyes hasn ’ t been thoroughly investigated , but Guangfa Wang , a member of China ’ s national expert panel on pneumonia , has said he thought he ’ d contracted the disease that way during an inspection of patients in which he wore a face mask .
A group of ophthalmologists has supported his hypothesis in a letter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as the conjunctiva that lines the inside of the eyelids and covers the whites of the eye has been shown to be the gateway for other infections .
The eye doctors writing to the Lancet called for their colleagues examining suspected cases to wear protective eyewear .
When people sneeze , cough or even breath , they also emit particles so small that instead of falling right to the ground , these aerosols can float for a time through the air .
When a virus is carried by such particulates , its odds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the potential for them to be inhaled .
More studies are needed to determine if this is the case with the Covid-19 virus .
If it is , it might mean health-care workers interacting with infected people require extra precautions , similar to those taken when treating other infectious diseases that travel in this way , such as tuberculosis , according to Benjamin Cowling , a professor of public health at the University of Hong Kong .
For the hordes of regular people rushing out to buy masks , however , Cowling says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they would be even if this is the primary mode through which the novel coronavirus spreads .
The confusion has prompted shortages of protective gear from face masks to surgical gloves to hand sanitizer , and even toilet paper around the world .
Another possible route of transmission is infected people improperly washing their hands after using the toilet , and then touching surfaces or preparing food that comes in contact with healthy people .
Recent research suggests this fecal-oral route may be an important and under-recognized pathway for the novel coronavirus .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ has spread among hundreds of passengers and crew aboard cruise ships .
If that ’ s the case , regular hand-washing and sanitizing bathrooms , food-preparation and serving areas could be more effective in slowing the virus than outfitting people with face masks , according to John Nicholls , a professor of pathology at Hong Kong University , who was part of the research team that isolated and characterized the virus responsible for the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS .
“ Masks will be of benefit in this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ putting contaminated fingers in your mouth , ” he said .
Water , food , and so-called fomites -- inanimate objects or materials , such as clothing or utensils -- may be a source of infection , especially if they have been contaminated by an infected person ’ s respiratory secretions or feces .
In recognition of that risk , Chinese health officials recommend measures to strengthen sanitation and hygiene in epidemic areas .
These include drinking boiled water , avoiding eating raw food , washing hands frequently , disinfecting toilets , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by patients .


washingtonpost--2020-04-06--Analysis | What U.S. Sanctions Mean for Iran’s Coronavirus Fight

The Office of Foreign Assets Control says the U.S. has “ consistently maintained broad exceptions and authorizations to support humanitarian transactions with Iran.
” Exemptions for medical goods and medicine came into effect in 2001 under President Bill Clinton , who imposed the first major sanctions against Iran in 1995 .
These exemptions were periodically widened so that by 2012 they included agricultural products and most foods .
After the U.S. and other world powers reached a 2015 deal with Iran on its nuclear program , the State Department made efforts to reassure banks and traders over transactions with Iran @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That approach was abandoned after President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal and began a campaign of “ maximum pressure , ” seeking to force Iran ’ s leaders to abandon uranium enrichment and end support for militias and proxies such as Hezbollah , designated a terrorist group by the U.S. • Years of various sanctions regimes mean most banks see little to no commercial incentive to deal with Iran , given the volume of due diligence and compliance involved .
That makes finding a way to pay for purchases difficult @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
• Many items require additional authorization because the U.S. considers them “ dual use , ” meaning they could have applications in other areas like defense .
Examples include hazmat suits , some air filters , face shields and the sort of oxygen generators that are needed in the life-support machines used to treat severe coronavirus cases .
Decisions can take months .
• That squeeze has also forced the government to severely limit the amount of foreign currency it makes available to private-sector importers .
It also has led Iran to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fund for the first time since 1960 , some $ 5 billion .
Most see any link to Iran as a “ stain , ” according to Carlo Giacoma , director general of the Brussels-based European Institute for Export Compliance , which advises businesses that want to trade with Iran .
As with other sanctions campaigns , U.S. leverage rests with the central role American banks -- and the U.S. dollar -- play in the global economy .
Anyone who violates the sanctions could see their U.S.-based assets blocked or lose the ability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system .
That makes doing business tricky in a country where so many state institutions and associated conglomerates are sanctioned .
“ There is very little profit to be made from these exports , ” said John E. Smith , an attorney at Morrison & Foerster who was the director of OFAC from 2015 to 2018 .
Meanwhile , the penalties for getting it wrong can top $ 1 billion .
There are just a handful of banks left in Iran that aren ’ t on the U.S. Treasury ’ s list and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behalf of Iranian importers .
But they need both capital to pay for the goods , access to foreign currency and a corresponding bank that can accept the payment on behalf of the supplier .
According to Giacoma , three European banks , which he declined to name , have been executing payments for various imports to Iran , including humanitarian aid , but the volumes have declined dramatically over the past three years .
One indication of the tougher policy ’ s effect is the drop in applications for licenses to import @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by OFAC ’ s general license .
( Goods covered by general licenses can , in theory , be exported to Iran without any additional paperwork . )
According to the Treasury , such applications dropped from 220 in the last quarter of 2016 to just 36 in the first quarter of 2019 , the latest figure available .
Hundreds of businesses and importers , from local pharmacists to large companies producing generic drugs , have been affected , and the repercussions are felt by the general public .
Pharmaceutical imports from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % from three years earlier , while U.S. shipments of mostly non-sanctioned humanitarian goods dropped to $ 3.9 million in February -- down 88 % from February 2016 .
Advocacy group Human Rights Watch says the worst-hit include patients with serious and rare conditions such as leukemia , epilepsy or eye injuries from exposure to chemical weapons during the Iran-Iraq war .
An Iranian NGO which helps treat a rare skin condition said 15 children had died after Swedish companies stopped shipping specialist dressings to comply with sanctions .
There have also been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ingesting industrial-grade ethanol and methanol in the misguided belief it would stave off the coronavirus .
Iran has for years developed ways to adapt to embargoes and sanctions , but the strain of the coronavirus outbreak -- the worst in the region -- has stretched its health system enormously at a time when money is extremely tight due to low oil exports and prices .
The government has carved out 20 % of the current annual budget to deal with the virus , is tapping an already depleted sovereign wealth fund for $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ borrow from the IMF .
Complicating things further , Iran ’ s health-care system is dogged by complaints of corruption and nepotistic practices .
In one high-profile case , the daughter of a former industry minister was sentenced to 20 years in prison and 74 lashes for “ illegally profiteering ” by hoarding and smuggling pharmaceuticals .
Iran ’ s own banking system is seen as lacking in transparency .
After Iran ’ s parliament ratified legislation to bring lenders in line with global money-laundering rules , a senior political chamber , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said in a March tweet that “ the regime ’ s concerted effort to lift U.S. sanctions isn ’ t about fighting the pandemic .
It ’ s about cash for the regime ’ s leaders .
”


washingtonpost--2020-01-17--Analysis | How China’s Mystery Pneumonia Illness is Different From SARS

The outbreak in Wuhan , a city of 11 million , appears severe .
Dozens of people have been hospitalized since mid-December -- a handful in serious condition .
Fatalities have been reported .
Cases have been confirmed in Thailand and Japan involving travelers arriving from China .
On the other hand , many patients in Wuhan have recovered and been discharged and there haven ’ t been any cases of health-care workers becoming infected , which supports early findings that the disease probably isn ’ t being transmitted from person to person .
That reduces the potential of it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ began in China and swept across the globe , infecting thousands of people .
Mainly fever , with some patients experiencing fatigue , a dry cough and difficulty breathing .
Chest X-rays have shown invasive lesions of both lungs , the World Health Organization said .
However , only cases requiring hospitalization have been reported so far .
It ’ s possible other people have been infected and experienced no , or only mild , symptoms .
Chinese authorities identified a novel ( not seen in humans before ) coronavirus in one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ conducting gene sequencing .
The WHO has labeled the new virus 2019-nCoV .
Genomic data was made publicly available in mid-January , enabling scientists outside China to study its genetic fingerprint for clues about where and how it might have emerged .
A report prepared for the International Journal of Infectious Diseases found it is at least 70 % similar in its genetic makeup to the SARS virus , but “ appears clinically milder ” in terms of severity , fatality rate and transmissibility .
Like the source of the virus , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The WHO quoted the Chinese authorities as saying it doesn ’ t transmit readily between people .
Investigators have focused on the wholesale market in Wuhan , where most of the people infected either worked or shopped frequently .
It has been closed since New Year ’ s Day and no additional cases have been detected in China since Jan. 3 .
Outside China , a man was hospitalized in Japan on Jan. 10 , but discharged five days later .
He had developed a fever while in Wuhan and later tested positive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ case involved a woman living in Wuhan who had traveled to Bangkok on Jan. 8 , three days after experiencing symptoms at home .
Neither patient had visited the fish market .
That raised the possibility that the pathogen is lurking more widely in the city -- a worrying prospect ahead of the Lunar New Year ( on Jan. 25 this year ) , which spurs frenzied grocery shopping , including sometimes exotic foods .
There ’ s a large family of them , with some causing less-severe diseases , some more .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , while others do not .
There ’ s growing recognition of the role of coronaviruses in cases of severe pneumonia .
The WHO says that new ones emerge periodically in different areas globally , and several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that haven ’ t infected humans .
It can vary .
HIV , for example , wasn ’ t discovered as the cause of AIDS for years .
In the case of SARS , many of China ’ s top doctors were initially adamant they were dealing with pneumonia caused @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
China fired its then health minister , Zhang Wenkang , for mishandling that crisis .
Wuhan houses China ’ s first maximum bio-containment laboratory , built in 2015 to investigate the planet ’ s most dangerous pathogens , so it ’ s well placed for the current outbreak .
Scientists there have probably been screening a number of possible culprits .
In mid-January , specialists from outside mainland China were invited to Wuhan to share information .
Authorities in Wuhan say they are providing the best possible medical care .
Patients have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Health officials are also looking for , screening and monitoring people the patients had contact with , and searching for current and past cases that may have been treated in medical institutions throughout the city .
Environmental samples from the closed market have been taken for analysis .
There are some , albeit narrow , parallels .
Both emerged in China .
In the case of SARS , it ’ s thought to have spread indirectly from a “ wildlife reservoir , ” believed to be bats , to humans via masked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markets .
The Wuhan outbreak has also been linked to live-animal markets , making it possible the infectious agent has an animal origin .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .


washingtonpost--2020-01-07--Analysis | How China’s Mystery Pneumonia Illness is Different From SARS

The outbreak in Wuhan , a city of 11 million , appears to be severe .
Dozens of people have been hospitalized since the first patient developed symptoms Dec. 12 .
A handful were in serious condition .
On the other hand , two patients were close to being discharged at year-end ( though authorities haven ’ t disclosed further information ) , and no fatalities had been reported as of Jan. 5 .
There also haven ’ t been any cases of health-care workers becoming infected , which supports early findings that the disease probably isn ’ t being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reduces the potential of it spawning an outbreak like SARS , which began in China and swept across the globe , infecting thousands of people .
Still , the World Health Organization says there ’ s insufficient information available to determine the overall risk .
The symptoms are common to several respiratory diseases , and pneumonia occurs frequently in winter .
Based on epidemiological and preliminary laboratory tests , authorities in Wuhan consider the cause to be viral .
They ’ ve checked for known respiratory infections and ruled out pathogens that cause @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a related virus known as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus , or MERS-CoV .
That makes it likely the agent responsible is something doctors haven ’ t seen before and , therefore , can ’ t test for .
Numerous , unsubstantiated reports have mentioned a novel SARS-like virus from the coronavirus family , and there ’ s growing recognition of their role in cases of severe pneumonia .
It can take time .
HIV , for example , wasn ’ t discovered as the cause of AIDS for years .
In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s top doctors were initially adamant they were dealing with pneumonia caused by chlamydia , a sexually transmissible bacterium .
Wuhan houses China ’ s first maximum biocontainment laboratory , built in 2015 to investigate the planet ’ s most dangerous pathogens , so it ’ s well placed for the current outbreak .
Scientists in Wuhan are probably screening a number of possible culprits and are cautious about identifying a specific one until they are certain .
There is political risk in getting it wrong : China sacked its then health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the SARS crisis .
In addition , there ’ s no indication patient specimens have been shared with labs outside the province of Hubei , let alone other countries , which has hindered other specialists from assisting .
Authorities in Wuhan say they are providing the best-possible medical care .
Patients have been isolated to prevent any potential spread .
Health officials are also looking for , screening and monitoring people the patients had contact with , and searching for current and past cases that may have been treated in medical institutions throughout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the market , where environmental samples have been taken for analysis .
Scientists are studying DNA and isolating and cultivating viruses to try to identify the pathogen .
It ’ s still early , but so far , it appears not .
Authorities in Hong Kong , Taiwan and Singapore increased precautions at airports .
Hong Kong ’ s Centre for Health Protection said it picked up 16 sick people who had recently traveled to Wuhan as of Jan. 6 but found no discernible link between these cases and the pneumonia cluster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ . )
A 3-year-old girl hospitalized in Singapore with pneumonia also turned out to be unrelated .
The WHO has said it ’ s monitoring the situation and is standing by to respond if needed .
There are some , albeit narrow , parallels .
Both emerged in China .
In the case of SARS , it ’ s thought to have spread indirectly from a “ wildlife reservoir , ” believed to be bats , to humans via masked palm civets and other species in live-animal markets .
The Wuhan outbreak has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , making it possible the infectious agent has an animal origin .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .


washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Analysis | How China’s Pledge to Give Its Virus Vaccine Could Go

China is a frontrunner in developing coronavirus vaccines .
As of mid-May , it had five candidates in human trials and over 2,000 people enrolled in phase II trials , which are meant to show if the vaccine is safe and can elicit an immune response from the body .
No serious side effects had been reported as of that point , according to Zeng Yixin , vice minister of the National Health Commission .
The vaccines are being developed by Chinese companies in partnership with academic institutions and backed by state resources , including the military .
To gauge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to go through phase III testing in a place where the coronavirus is still spreading rapidly to see if it keeps vaccinated people free of infection compared to those who didn ’ t get shots .
Since the spread has apparently been checked in China , two Chinese developers , CanSino Biologics and Sinovac Biotech Ltd. , are in talks with other countries including Canada to conduct testing .
China has worked with the WHO and Gavi , a global non-profit organization focused on vaccine delivery that ’ s backed by the Gates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in international vaccination programs in the past decade .
But before they would distribute it , any Covid-19 vaccine must first get a WHO stamp of approval known as “ pre-qualification , ” which assures developing nations that the vaccine has been deemed safe and effective .
The amount of time that takes varies case by case .
The closest China may have come to global vaccine distribution on this scale is the 30 million doses of Japanese encephalitis shots it supplied from 2014 to 2018 through Gavi to countries such as Cambodia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 700 million shots per year at home .
Up to 95 % of vaccines administered in China are produced domestically , reflecting its vast manufacturing capacity .
It also has recent experience in developing a vaccine for a novel disease and then rapidly administering it widely -- in chickens .
In 2017 , China ’ s successful vaccination program to immunize hundreds of millions of poultry against the H7N9 virus saw cases of infection drop by over 90 % and helped stop the spread of the disease to humans .
A 2018 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cutting corners in production has undermined public confidence and given the industry a bad global reputation .
After the incident , Beijing passed new laws carrying hefty fines to police the industry .
There ’ s also the question of finding other countries willing to allow phase III testing .
Several times Chinese vaccine efforts went nowhere because the diseases they targeted were stamped out or never broke out widely within China .
For example , efforts by China National Biotec Group and Sinovac to develop a SARS vaccine fizzled when the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2003 .
It could still play a big role .
A promising effort by American drug maker Moderna Inc. employs an experimental method in which the vaccine carries the genetic sequence of the virus in order to stimulate the body ’ s immune response .
There ’ s no precedent involving this technique , however , so it ’ s unclear if such a vaccine could be manufactured at scale quickly to meet demand .
In contrast , most of the five Chinese vaccines in development are based on inactivated viruses -- @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which significant production capacity already exists .
Even if China does not cross the finish line first , it may still find it easier and faster to churn out millions of doses for global distribution .


washingtonpost--2020-05-08--Analysis | Drugs Authorized for Coronavirus? Why There’s Skepticism

In late April , researchers announced that remdesivir , an experimental antiviral drug that Gilead Sciences Inc. originally made as a treatment for Ebola , helped patients recover from Covid-19 more quickly than standard care .
Days later , it was cleared by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for emergency use in Covid-19 patients .
The authorization was limited to hospitalized Covid-19 patients with low blood-oxygen levels or who need breathing support .
Japanese regulators authorized use of the drug based on the FDA ’ s approval .
The FDA in March controversially issued an Emergency Use Authorization providing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hydroxychloroquine , to be distributed and prescribed by doctors to Covid-19 patients .
The move came after President Donald Trump repeatedly touted the drugs .
Such authorizations are permitted during a crisis when a product ’ s “ known and potential benefits ” outweigh its “ known and potential risks.
” The Russian government in mid-April ordered the free distribution of hydroxychloroquine , which hadn ’ t been registered for use in the country previously , for treatment of coronavirus .
The FDA ’ s decision and Trump ’ s championing of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ premature .
In a small study in France , hydroxychloroquine showed promising results , but the trial ’ s methodology has been challenged , and in another small trial in China , the drug was no more effective than conventional care .
In another study published May 7 , it failed to help those with infections stay off ventilators or live longer .
And it carries significant side effects .
In April , France reported 43 cases of heart incidents linked to treating coronavirus patients with hydroxychloroquine .
Plus panic-buying of hydroxychloroquine has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with malaria and the autoimmune disease lupus , for whom it is a proven therapy .
Larger trials of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are underway .
Even if a treatment shows promise in laboratory , animal or early human experiments , rigorous testing is needed to prove that it ’ s both safe and effective .
That requires carefully structured and monitored tests known as clinical trials .
Typically , these studies are designed to show that patients randomly assigned to get the drug do better than those in a “ control group ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the results aren ’ t a product of chance .
The trials try to subtract all the other influences and factors that might disguise the true effectiveness of the drug .
For one thing , patients often recover from viral illness on their own , or improve because of supportive care such as rest and hydration .
And some really sick patients might not respond to treatment no matter how effective it is .
Treatments that don ’ t have approval from regulators should be viewed with extreme caution .
The FDA and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ multiple companies to stop selling unproven treatments for coronavirus .
It depends .
Drugs that are already approved against one infection and shown to be safe can be tested for effectiveness against another in a matter of months .
Experimental drugs may take longer to test , as they have to go through initial studies to evaluate whether they are safe .
Other factors that can slow the process include the supply of drug candidates and the availability of patients to test them in .
The trials also have to be approved by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a 2017 review , the median time for regulators to approve a new drug in 2015 was 333 days in the U.S. , 422 days in Europe , and 639 days in China .
China has since expedited its process .
When drugs are deemed to fill an immediate need , regulators can speed them through the approval process using a number of paths .
More than 100 different programs have been launched to develop and test treatments .
These include everything from antiviral drugs and antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ number of studies are looking at whether drugs for rheumatoid arthritis , cancer and autoimmune disorders can halt dangerous inflammation , sometimes called “ cytokine storm , ” which can be lethal .
In a study in China published March 18 , AbbVie Inc. ’ s Kaletra , an HIV treatment combining two drugs , failed to improve the condition of coronavirus patients .
Another small , preliminary trial of the flu medication favipiravir , or Avigan , made by Fujifilm Holdings Corp. produced more promising results .
More than 70 experimental vaccines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of development , according to the World Health Organization .
Moving at record speed , researchers began preliminary human testing of the first one in mid-March in the Seattle area .
It was developed by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in collaboration with the biotechnology company Moderna Inc .
Since then , a handful of additional human trials have begun of vaccine candidates , including from CanSino Biologics Inc. and the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology and from Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc .
Some of the world ’ s biggest companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has teamed up with China-based Clover Biopharmaceuticals , while Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson are in separate collaborations with the U.S. government ’ s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority .
Widespread testing of experimental vaccines is important to reduce the possibility that they cause harm after being rolled out , as has been the case a number of times in the past .
Documented reports of unexpected side effects from new vaccines are different from the persistent and incorrect belief that vaccines against childhood diseases carry significant risks .
Anthony Fauci , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Allergy and Infectious Diseases , said that it would take about a year and a half to complete trials of experimental coronavirus vaccines , scale up production and make a licensed product widely available .
A team at the University of Oxford has set an ambitious aim of producing efficacy results for its vaccine candidate in September and aims to shorten the path to delivering the initial doses of a proven product by beginning manufacturing now .
There ’ s no guarantee trials will yield a successful vaccine , however .
The experimental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new technologies that have never proven useful in humans .
SARS killed nearly 800 people in a 2002-2003 outbreak , and there still isn ’ t an approved vaccine .
In a project that could deliver a vaccine sooner , researchers in four countries will test a shot that ’ s already licensed to prevent tuberculosis to see if it will protect health workers against the coronavirus .


washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Analysis | Why I’m Nervous About the End of Lockdown

Life is gradually returning to some semblance of what it once was .
My children have been attending school one day a week and they ’ ll be back full-time Monday .
We ’ ve been round to several friends ’ houses , and over the weekend I cycled with my family to the shores of Sydney Harbour .
The hundreds that we passed were doing a decent job of keeping their distance , but I ’ d be lying if I said we never came within the regulation 1.5 meters of anyone .
After eight weeks of caution , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into each other ’ s physical spaces .
I should be feeling happy that my country seems to be emerging from the shadow of a pandemic without the terrible toll of death and disease paid elsewhere .
In truth I have a sense of creeping dread .
I find it hard to believe we won ’ t be looking back at this moment in two months , wondering how none of us saw what was coming .
It ’ s impossible to know whether Australia has so far escaped the virus from skill @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hard to argue we did everything right .
The day after the World Health Organization finally declared a pandemic in mid-March , Prime Minister Scott Morrison was still boasting about how he was planning to see his favorite rugby league team at Sydney ’ s 83,500-capacity ANZ Stadium .
About one in 10 cases here stem from the moment the following week when Carnival Corp. ’ s Ruby Princess was allowed to disembark more than 400 sick passengers in the middle of the city .
State and federal governments are still arguing about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarantine .
That mirrors the sense of randomness experienced around the world , as my colleague Joe Nocera has written .
Some places , like Lombardy , New York and the U.K. , have seen devastating , society-straining outbreaks .
Others in superficially similar circumstances , like Campania , Florida and Germany , have been spared the worst .
Despite more than 23,000 scientific papers written on Covid-19 , the breadth of what we don ’ t know is astonishing .
It ’ s still unclear how much the virus is able to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of surfaces it can best survive on , and for how long ; what role children play in transmitting the disease ; how long those who ’ ve been infected retain immunity ; and even how many have been infected .
Knowledge isn ’ t a prophylactic on its own .
Robert Koch revolutionized our understanding of infection when he identified the causative agent of tuberculosis in 1882 , but his attempts to develop a vaccine were an ignominious failure .
The bacterium still kills more than a million people a year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemics spread in waves , with the subsequent outbreaks often far worse than the initial surge of infections .
About 108 million people are under renewed lockdowns in China ’ s three northeastern provinces , while initial success in containing the disease has given way to fresh outbreaks in Singapore and South Korea .
The impossibility of maintaining a heightened state of vigilance in the long term may be one of the greatest risks ahead of us , as my colleague Clara Ferreira Marques has written .
The role of heat and humidity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — is probably what worries me most , living in one of the southern hemisphere ’ s few temperate countries .
Of the 17 nations with more than 50,000 confirmed cases , only Brazil and India have been outside the temperate , arid and high-altitude zones that a climate-based model would suggest are most likely to encourage infection .
For much of the world , where spring is gradually turning to summer , seasonal variation in Covid-19 ’ s reproduction rate would offer the prospect of a welcome slowdown in the coming months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a mild fall is now giving way to the first bite of winter .
As I step into the cool afternoon air onto a main street that ’ s as busy as I ’ ve seen it in months , that ’ s not a comforting thought .


washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Running a Business From the Sickbed at the Virus’s Center in NYC

Her resilience epitomizes the hardship of hundreds of small business owners who are trying to carry on while the virus is raging in the largely working-class Queens neighborhoods of Woodside , Jackson Heights and Elmhurst .
Those entrepreneurs , many of them women , traditionally have little access to capital .
They have struggled through the worst of the crisis without aid from the federal government , whose centerpiece $ 669 billion relief program for small firms has largely been beyond the reach of low-income areas that are shut out of the traditional financial system .
Weeks into the crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Following outrage over how millions were doled out to high-profile restaurant chains , rules were changed to set aside aid money for organizations that provide financing to the nation ’ s most distressed communities .
Microlenders such as Grameen America , a nonprofit started by Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Muhammad Yunus , have stepped in to secure relief loans for businesses such as Lugo ’ s .
It ’ s funneling some cash to people who need it most .
Lugo ’ s husband was the first to get ill in early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their daughter , followed by their son .
By the time the city ’ s lockdown went into effect on March 22 , some of Lugo ’ s employees had called in sick with coronavirus symptoms .
The team , with whom Lugo held weekly Zoom meetings , serviced police vehicles and cars belonging to doctors who worked at the nearby Elmhurst hospital , one of the city hospitals that was swamped with patients suffering from the worst symptoms of Covid-19 .
But businesses need to apply for loans via approved lenders , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the funds inaccessible to those who are locked out of conventional banking .
After the first round of $ 349 billion ran out of money in 13 days , Congress set aside $ 30 billion for community development financial institutions that provide financial services in economically distressed areas .
The average size of loans has dropped to about $ 71,000 from $ 206,000 during the first tranche .
About a ten-minute drive east into Jackson Heights , with the number 7 subway line rumbling up on the elevated tracks , Vanessa Gil had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Gil , who normally handled the administration of the business , was left to manage it alone after her parents and some workers fell sick , presumably with the coronavirus .
At the end of each day , Gil creeps quietly into her home so as not to get her children ’ s attention in case they come running to greet her .
She needs to sanitize and do a clothes change first .
Her parents were quarantined in the basement of her home , where she lives with her husband , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for federal small business relief in the first round and is still waiting to hear back .
In the meantime , Gil has been fulfilling takeout orders and delivering food platters at Elmhurst hospital .
Both her parents have recovered and returned to the restaurant to work .
The lockdowns brought Conde ’ s business to a complete halt , striking right at the start of the driving-instruction season that lasts through September .
Her Hybrid Driving School has monthly costs of more than $ 9,000 , including rent for premises where Conde @ @ @ @ @ @ @ didn ’ t apply for federal relief because she doesn ’ t have an existing lending relationship with a bank , is now getting help from Grameen America to secure financing .
Though she negotiated a delay in rent payments and her business credit card , she faces a credit crunch .


washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Analysis | Smart Energy Stimulus Means Thinking Small

In 2020 , the whole country faces a crisis — a public-health and economic debacle rolled into one .
Once we get past this one , another still looms : climate change .
The two are comparable in several respects , not least their utter indifference to politicization .
They are also linked by the question of stimulus money : How much of any program will go toward climate-friendly initiatives such as electrification and renewable energy ?
Part of the answer must be another question : How can such resources be deployed most usefully ?
The fiasco of WPPSS offers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its many failures were wildly overoptimistic forecasts .
While the plan envisioned more than 40,000 megawatts of new capacity , regional demand increased by only about 9,000 average megawatts .
( 2 ) First proposed in the early 1970s , the only one of the WPPSS plants to ever generate electricity didn ’ t switch on until 1984 , a year after the bond default .
The estimated cost of all five quintupled to roughly $ 24 billion .
( 4 ) It didn ’ t help that WPPSS was a governance black @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its grandiose plans coincided with mounting opposition to nuclear power ( the Three Mile Island accident happened in 1979 ) .
But the underlying failure was committing to large-scale solutions to a perceived problem rather than scalable ones .
In attempting to build several large , complex reactors at once , WPPSS left ratepayers and bondholders exposed to the risks of delays , overruns and , as it turned out , the possibility of the electricity not being needed in the first place .
A more measured approach aligned with actual needs would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and money ) .
Bent Flyvbjerg is a professor at Oxford ’ s Saïd Business School who specializes in mega-projects , from nuclear power stations to staging the Olympics .
In a recent article , he drew a line between Covid-19 and climate change , phenomena where the impact of the next disaster will likely be worse than the last — “ regression to the tail , ” rather than the mean , as he calls it .
In managing such risks , our aim should be to cut the tail of extreme @ @ @ @ @ @ @ medical equipment or developing zero-carbon energy — and err on the side of caution .
That we would eventually face a pandemic was a known known , so to speak .
Not only were we unprepared , though , but our response also lacked urgency and coordination , leading to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths and the resort to mass lockdowns with huge economic costs .
Similarly , we know climate change is happening and , if unaddressed , its impacts will compound over time .
Flattening ( and then crushing ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , not one to be deferred to the next generation .
When planners in the Pacific Northwest feared blackouts , they responded with a vast , unwieldy program that left the region vulnerable to other tail risks of cost and delay .
You might say they didn ’ t have a choice back then : If you needed more power , you built giant power stations .
On the other hand , maybe they could have started with one nuclear plant and seen how it went .
In any case , we no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have options .
For a climate-centered energy stimulus to achieve its objectives , it must create jobs and generate competitive power — fast .
“ What you want to do is projects that are COTS : Commercial off-the-shelf .
That is the opposite of bespoke , ” says Flyvbjerg , adding , “ We don ’ t have 10 or 15 years to wait for the effects ; effects on the economy , effects on employment but also effects on climate.
” If recent history is anything to go by , then nuclear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to overoptimistic forecasting , multibillion-dollar cost overruns and long delays ( see this ) .
So-called small modular reactors have long been touted as a way to reduce costs and shorten construction schedules .
If they can be shown to work , then they may yet compete .
But like other traditional generating technologies , they face ever stiffer competition from renewable energy .
This isn ’ t to single out nuclear ( or any other ) generation .
Rather , it ’ s to highlight renewable energy ’ s edge .
Not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wind power dropped dramatically over the past decade .
They are also , crucially , scalable rather than large-scale .
Wind and solar farms can be built quickly using standardized equipment , and added to ( or not ) over time , keeping supply aligned with demand .
As capacity grows , and manufacturers and developers keep learning , costs fall further — the industry has been revolutionized in the space of a decade , less time than it can take to develop a nuclear plant .
And these assets can be dispersed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more widely than traditional stations .
It also helps that almost 1 in 2 jobs in wind and solar power , and the associated areas of energy storage and smart grids , are in stimulus-friendly construction .
That ’ s the highest proportion for any sector of America ’ s energy industry ( see this ) .
Any stimulus effort comes with a built-in backlash , which , if the past decade has taught us anything , is a fat-tail risk itself .
Cutting that off means mitigating the chances of a Whoops @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a business-school case study or , more pertinently , fodder for an attack ad .
On that front , Flyvbjerg finds an average budget overrun for nuclear projects of 122 % versus just 13 % for wind farms .
( 3 ) It might not make much sense that Covid-19 , of all things , could be the event that pushes America to finally fix its decadent energy system .
Regardless , if it does , renewables provide a way of dealing with our climate risk without creating new ones along the way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Supply System was a public power joint operating agency formed in 1957 to procure power for regional utilities .
Or , as Jeremiah D. Lambert writes : “ WPPSS was a vehicle designed to minimize oversight and allowed individual utilities to escape accountability and criticism .
Using tax-free revenue bonds , it had the legal right to borrow money without voter approval by action of its board of directors .
The public would not feel the costs until much later.
” ( ” The Power Brokers ” , MIT Press , 2015 ) @


washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Bicycle Sales Surge With Americans Eager to Get Moving Again

“ It ’ s crazy and was not expected , ” Olson said .
“ We are just seeing lots of new customers .
Customers bringing out their cobweb-covered bikes and getting them tuned up.
” Bike sales were up 30 % in April , and have risen 60 % so far in May , Olson said .
He is now trying to hire 40 more staffers to meet surging demand .
Bike shops across the nation are seeing a spike in demand .
With gyms closed , some consumers switched to bikes for exercise and stress relief .
Parents @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from school — would burn up their pent-up energy .
As America slowly reopens , commuters are turning to bicycles to stay away from crowds in subways and buses .
More than 80 % of Americans see cycling as safer than taking public transportation , according to an April survey of 1,000 Americans by manufacturer Trek Bicycle , one of the the biggest-selling brands in the U.S. , and researcher Engine Insights .
As a result , the $ 54 billion global bicycle market , which grew 6.9 % last year , should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % this year , according to WinterGreen Research , based in Lexington , Massachusetts .
Before the pandemic , the industry largely was stagnant , with battery-powered e-bikes and gravel bikes showing growth , and sales of traditional road bikes plummeting .
Much of the growth in recent months has been in the U.S. , where bike shops were deemed essential businesses and allowed to stay open in many states .
( In parts of Europe , they were shut ) .
The shops offer online sales , curbside pickup and delivery .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ at a time , and are putting clothing items clients tried on in a “ decontamination zone , ’ ’ where the products stay untouched for a while .
With summer weather approaching , most bicycle-shop owners expect high demand to last for another month .
The question is : Will it be a fad or will it last ?
Susan Eustis , chief executive officer of WinterGreen , thinks the latter .
The new coronavirus is expected to remain a risk for the next three years .
Road and mountain bikes in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ range are the most popular , according to the Urban Cyclery Shop in East Orange , New Jersey .
These bikes are almost sold out , and now customers are snapping up unpopular colors like orange and turquoise , and unusual sizes such as extra small and extra large , said co-owner Ozzie Hansen .
E-bikes are in demand as well , according to the Motion Makers Bicycle Shop in Asheville , North Carolina , which owns three locations .
The Ashville store just had its best month ever , booking sales of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what the chain ’ s three stores combined sold in the prior record-setting month , September 2019 .
“ And we are doing it on more limited hours , and with more limited staff , ” said Ben Hinker , manager of the store .
“ Our service department is a solid two weeks , maybe three weeks out.
” The store is almost out of kids bikes , he said .
Fortunately , some of his suppliers are diverting shipments intended for Europe to his store .
With manufacturers low on stock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now trying to get supply from third-party vendors .
Sales are double what they were a year ago , said manager Will Alvarado .
On Mother ’ s Day weekend , he sold 80 bikes , up from between 30 to 40 in pre-Covid-19 times .
There are signs that shortages are easing now that China , where much of the bike production is based , has reopened its factories following closings at the end of January as part of its own efforts to contain the virus .
“ That ’ s the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making the bikes that are supposed to be in the U.S. in April , May and June , ” said Eric Bjorling , brand director at Trek Bicycle , whose bikes are also made in Holland and Germany .
“ We are seeing thousands of bikes arriving every single day now ; we think we are through the worst of it .
”


washingtonpost--2020-05-18--Analysis | Billionaire Agnellis Have Some More Bad News Coming

And things could get worse .
The terms of Fiat ’ s proposed merger with France ’ s Peugeot SA , negotiated before the coronavirus pandemic , require the Italian carmaker to pay its shareholders — the largest of whom are the Agnellis — a 5.5 billion-euro special dividend before the deal closes .
The size of that payment always looked questionable , given that Fiat ’ s balance sheet is inferior to Peugeot ’ s .
The Covid-19 outbreak makes it unconscionable .
Having halted production , both companies are burning through cash and Fiat has had to ask @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loan to support its domestic suppliers .
Surely the first priority here should be making sure the new company has strong enough finances as the economy starts to reopen .
The politics of Fiat asking for help from Rome is especially awkward after the carmaker moved its tax residency to the U.K. in 2014 , and its legal headquarters to the Netherlands .
Last year , Italy ’ s competition watchdog said that the country ’ s tax revenues had suffered significantly as a result .
Paying a fat dividend to the Agnellis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ probably wouldn ’ t go down very well with the public — as Germany ’ s BMW AG and other recent dividend payers have discovered .
If Elkann still wants his sweetener , the two parties will need to find a way that doesn ’ t bleed the new merged entity of cash .
Right now , money is flowing rapidly out of both companies .
For the most part that ’ s because suppliers still need paying , even though the companies aren ’ t selling many cars .
I ’ ve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so-called negative working-capital problems .
Fiat ate through 5 billion euros of cash in the first three months of 2020 and it could consume twice that in the second quarter , according to Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois .
He expects Peugeot to burn through about 8 billion euros of cash in the first half of the year .
Neither company is in danger of running out of money , and those working capital-related outflows should reverse once the carmakers start producing and selling cars again .
Even so , one lesson of Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Until there ’ s a vaccine , there ’ s a risk that a second virus wave would trigger yet more industrial disruption .
There ’ s no great urgency for Fiat and Peugeot to alter the terms of their union as the deal isn ’ t expected to close until early next year .
The rationale for joining forces remains intact ; the cost savings from working together look even more important now .
But they should be thinking of ways to make the future company resilient .
Structured as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a premium for boardroom control , as well as for the Italian company ’ s lucrative U.S. truck business — even though Peugeot shares had been valued more highly by the market .
Some of the arguments for paying Fiat a sweetener remain valid : Peugeot ’ s reliance on the struggling European car market isn ’ t looking too attractive right now .
But there are other ways to compensate Fiat shareholders .
For example , Peugeot is due to spin off its 46 % stake in parts supplier Faurecia SE to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ merger terms .
This could be retained instead by the combined business .
Without their Fiat dividends , the Agnellis will have less money to reinvest in new ventures .
Right now , though , the car industry ’ s need is greater .


washingtonpost--2020-01-13--Analysis | How China’s Mystery Pneumonia Illness is Different From SARS

The outbreak in Wuhan , a city of 11 million , appears severe .
Dozens of people have been hospitalized -- a handful in serious condition -- since the first patient developed symptoms Dec. 12 .
On the other hand , at least six patients were discharged and only one fatality was reported though Jan. 12 .
The death occurred in a patient with serious underlying medical conditions .
There also haven ’ t been any cases of health-care workers becoming infected , which supports early findings that the disease probably isn ’ t being transmitted from person to person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spawning an outbreak like SARS , which began in China and swept across the globe , infecting thousands of people .
Mainly fever , with some patients having difficulty breathing , and chest X-rays showing invasive lesions of both lungs , the World Health Organization said .
However , only cases requiring hospitalization have been reported so far .
It ’ s possible other people have been infected and experienced no , or only mild , symptoms .
Chinese authorities identified a novel ( not seen before ) coronavirus in one of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gene sequencing , the WHO said .
Doctors subsequently confirmed 41 people had been infected with the virus , reducing the number of cases from 59 .
Genomic data was made publicly available in mid-January , enabling scientists outside China to study its genetic fingerprint for clues about where and how it might have emerged .
Andrew Rambaut , a professor of molecular evolution at the University of Edinburgh , said the novel coronavirus is 89 % similar to a SARS-related bat coronavirus , although that doesn ’ t necessarily mean it comes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ severe illness in some patients , it doesn ’ t transmit readily between people , the WHO quoted the Chinese authorities as saying .
Chinese investigators had previously checked for known respiratory infections and ruled out pathogens that cause flu , avian influenza , SARS and a related virus known as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus , or MERS-CoV .
There ’ s a large family of them , with some causing less-severe diseases , some more .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
There ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronaviruses in cases of severe pneumonia .
The WHO noted that new ones emerge periodically in different areas globally , and several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that haven ’ t infected humans .
It can vary .
HIV , for example , wasn ’ t discovered as the cause of AIDS for years .
In the case of SARS , many of China ’ s top doctors were initially adamant they were dealing with pneumonia caused by chlamydia , a sexually transmissible bacterium .
China fired its then health minister , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Wuhan houses China ’ s first maximum bio-containment laboratory , built in 2015 to investigate the planet ’ s most dangerous pathogens , so it ’ s well placed for the current outbreak .
Scientists there have probably been screening a number of possible culprits .
In mid-January , specialists from outside China were invited to Wuhan to share information , potentially boosting understanding of the new virus .
Authorities in Wuhan say they are providing the best possible medical care .
Patients have been isolated to prevent any potential spread .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ screening and monitoring people the patients had contact with , and searching for current and past cases that may have been treated in medical institutions throughout the city .
Authorities have closed the market , where environmental samples have been taken for analysis .
Apart from one confirmed case in Bangkok , it appears not .
Authorities in many Asian cities increased precautions at airports , testing travelers from Wuhan who arrived with fever and other symptoms .
As of Jan. 13 , only authorities in Thailand have confirmed a case ; most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The WHO has said it ’ s monitoring the situation and is standing by to respond if needed , but hasn ’ t recommended any special precautions for travelers .
There are some , albeit narrow , parallels .
Both emerged in China .
In the case of SARS , it ’ s thought to have spread indirectly from a “ wildlife reservoir , ” believed to be bats , to humans via masked palm civets and other species in live-animal markets .
The Wuhan outbreak has also been linked to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infectious agent has an animal origin .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .


washingtonpost--2020-03-02--Analysis | Currency Traders Are Missing the Details in This Rout

Japan ’ s case is curious .
Judging by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ’ s crisis response , the country seems to be anything but a haven .
The Diamond Princess cruise ship , which was quarantined for days off Yokohama , represented the largest concentration of coronavirus cases outside China .
Despite ranking high on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ’ s watch list , Tokyo isn ’ t conducting enough diagnostic tests .
This foot-dragging may be partly driven by Abe ’ s reluctance to derail the Tokyo Olympics , the New York Times reported .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the details .
Buying the yen is a well-worn theme , not an outcome of careful political-economy analysis .
If you have a bearish stance toward the U.S. market during Asian trading hours , buy the yen .
The correlation coefficient between the S & P 500 and the dollar-yen pair is a whopping 64 % on a weekly basis , the highest among G-10 countries .
The yen paused its advance Monday , dropping 0.4 % in morning trading after the Bank of Japan injected liquidity into the market .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is leaving hedge funds wrong-footed , exposing them to the risk of short covering .
Then consider Indonesia , which hasn ’ t recorded any cases , despite the fact that the nation of 264 million features prominently on China ’ s Belt and Road Initiative .
While questions remain about testing accuracy , the country still has plenty for investors to like .
President Joko Widodo has made Indonesia a better investment destination in recent years , slashing red tape and improving the country ’ s onerous land acquisition and labor laws @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cost $ 34 billion , may have first-tier investors ranging from SoftBank Group Corp. to Abu Dhabi ’ s sovereign funds .
Yet Indonesia ’ s Achilles heel isn ’ t the paucity of direct investment so much as foreigners ’ sovereign debt holdings , at almost 40 % of the total .
When markets get jittery , that money flees .
One rationale is that a nationwide curfew is keeping restless Chinese tourists from going abroad .
As a result , there ’ s little need to buy as much as $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ currency — or sell yuan of the equivalent amount — estimates HSBC Holdings Plc .
This is certainly bullish for the yuan , as China edges toward a current account deficit .
The truth is , the yuan remains a heavily managed currency .
In early February , the People ’ s Bank of China guided its daily fixing higher , using a mechanism called the “ counter-cyclical factor.
” This tool has become a catch-all that allows officials to ignore true market dynamics and adjust the currency ’ s path to its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hong Kong — who aren ’ t beholden to the 2 % daily trading limit of their onshore counterparts — the central bank has already found clever ways of killing them .
Thanks to a bull stock market — also engineered by Beijing — offshore demand for the yuan has been quite strong .
With President Xi Jinping repeatedly vowing to keep China ’ s growth target , investors are now expecting helicopter money .
That doesn ’ t seem so far-fetched given the economy ’ s contraction in the first quarter , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % on an annualized basis .
It ’ s at this moment of distress that we realize Asian countries aren ’ t transforming themselves fast enough .
Japan ’ s yen is too strong for an economy in perpetual deflation ; Indonesia can ’ t shake the Fragile Five label ; and market reforms are nowhere seen in China .
Optimists may say the region has learned the lesson from past financial crises .
The coronavirus only proves otherwise .


washingtonpost--2020-03-02--Analysis | Why Curbing Travel Is No Cure-All for the Coronavirus

Travel restrictions have been imposed by more than 50 countries or territories in hopes of containing the virus , according to data compiled by the International Air Transport Association .
The first and most dramatic was China sealing off the outbreak ’ s epicenter , Wuhan , a city of 11 million inhabitants , and the surrounding Hubei province .
The U.S. has said it would bar entry of most foreigners who have been in China within the previous two weeks .
Australia , Japan , Singapore , the Philippines and New Zealand also barred entry by non-citizens who had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ airlines have suspended flights .
Hong Kong , the international financial center that functions with some autonomy from China , announced restrictions as well .
Even some mainland Chinese cities have begun to control arrivals from abroad .
Consider Italy , which abruptly canceled flights to and from China when it emerged as an early European Union virus hot spot .
The government ’ s decision was second-guessed , since travelers from China could still fly to other EU countries and enter Italy from there -- without a passport check -- depriving authorities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do spot medical checks at airports .
And travel curbs can create a false sense of security , distracting countries from other crucial steps to fight an epidemic .
Catherine Worsnop , an assistant professor in the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland who has studied the effects of restrictions on people ’ s movement in past outbreaks , says such steps can merely delay an epidemic for a few weeks , at considerable economic and societal cost .
Plus , the fear of trade and travel limits can lead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ avoid economic and political harm , ” Worsnop wrote in a 2019 study .
The United Nations agency advises against restrictions on travel and trade to countries hit by the outbreak because costs -- social disruption and lots of resources -- usually outweigh benefits .
Only in areas with few international connections and resources are temporary curbs useful , it says .
In a Feb. 29 travel update on the coronavirus epidemic , WHO noted that several countries that denied entry of travelers or suspended flights to and from China or other affected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during an outbreak last year of Ebola -- a far more deadly disease that kills about half of those infected -- the head of the WHO said any restrictions on travel or trade could hamper the fight rather than stop the spread , because such limits could lead people to use informal and unmonitored border crossings .
The WHO advised on Feb. 29 that temperature screening at border points “ is not an effective way to stop international spread.
” A big reason is that monitoring for fever may miss infected passengers still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or those trying to hide symptoms by taking medication .
People suffering from other illnesses could also get caught up in the process .
What it does recommend is collecting health declarations at arrival with contact details so people can be traced .
Instead of restrictions on travel , the WHO advises people stay put if they have a fever or cough and seek out medical attention early on if symptoms develop on the road .
If people are returning from affected areas , they should remain isolated for 14 days .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rapid spread , governments are increasingly coming under fire by citizens looking for someone to blame .
In South Korea , public fury is coalescing around the idea that authorities should have blocked Chinese from coming to the country sooner .
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also been criticized for taking a softer approach to travel curbs on China , the country ’ s biggest trading partner .
Flight cancellations have skyrocketed since the virus ’ s outbreak .
Most international carriers have announced plans to halt service to China and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lufthansa AG announcing plans to ground planes and Air France-KLM going into crisis mode with cost cuts .
In a bid to reassure travelers , some airlines are turning to the world ’ s hardest-hitting disinfectants to rid planes of the coronavirus .
Some cruise ships have found themselves all but trapped at sea over coronavirus concerns , as governments seek to keep cases away from their shores .


washingtonpost--2020-03-02--Analysis | Why Malaysia’s Politics Are Messy and What’s at Stake

Two veteran politicians , Mahathir Mohamad and Anwar Ibrahim , pulled off a shocking election victory in 2018 that ousted then-Prime Minister Najib Razak , who was enmeshed in a massive money-laundering scandal linked to the state investment first 1MDB .
Mahathir , now 94 , became prime minister again ( he held the post from 1981 to 2003 ) , with the understanding that he would hand over to Anwar at some point .
Delays in setting a date -- as well as policy disputes within the unwieldy coalition -- led to tension that boiled over in late February @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interim prime minister , saying he wanted to form a unity government that would be more likely to listen to him .
But the king pre-empted his efforts on March 1 by naming Mahathir ’ s erstwhile right-hand man , Muhyiddin Yassin , as Malaysia ’ s eighth prime minister since independence from the U.K. in 1957 .
Malaysia is a parliamentary democracy along the lines of the U.K. , except instead of one constitutional monarch the title rotates every five years among the rulers of nine Malay states .
The king , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ usually stays on the sidelines performing ceremonial duties , but is involved in major appointments like that of prime minister .
A 72-year-old career politician who rose through ranks of the once-ruling United Malays National Organisation party .
He was Najib ’ s deputy for six years before he was sacked in July 2015 after calling for greater clarity in the 1MDB investigations .
He later joined forces with Mahathir to set up a new party , Bersatu , and became home affairs minister in the new government .
A cancer survivor who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s perhaps best known for quipping in 2010 that he considers himself “ Malay first ” and Malaysian second .
Almost two thirds of the country of some 31 million people are ethnic Malays , who are overwhelmingly Muslim .
There are also large ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities who are Christian , Buddhist and Hindu .
Government policies give preferential treatment to Malays , traditionally seen as disenfranchised , in such areas as public-sector jobs , housing and higher education .
Critics say the preferences have fostered cronyism and a dependence on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minorities to look for work overseas , draining the economy of talent .
But they are something of a “ third rail ” in Malaysia ’ s polarized politics .
Mahathir ’ s appointment of Lim Guan Eng as finance minister , the first ethnic Chinese to hold the post in over four decades , sowed suspicion among Malay nationalists that their benefits would be eroded , costing the coalition support .
Mahathir and Anwar , who are also Malay , had campaigned on a “ New Malaysia ” agenda aimed at boosting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his wife for corruption .
Mahathir had appointed the country ’ s first female chief justice and lifted bans on previously blacklisted journalists .
The parties in the new government , including Najib ’ s UMNO , are supporting a more conservative agenda favoring Malays , including measures to promote a stricter version of Islam .
It ’ s already growing at the slowest pace in a decade amid the rapid spread of a virus that ’ s wreaking havoc on travel and supply chains across Asia .
( Projections are for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the commodity-reliant economy this year , down from an earlier forecast of 4.8 % . )
Mahathir had unveiled a 20 billion ringgit ( $ 4.8 billion ) stimulus package to support affected businesses , particularly in the tourism industry .
Oil-related earnings also are in decline amid weak crude prices , adding headwinds for exports and potentially undermining the Muhyiddin-led government ’ s capacity to boost infrastructure , lift income and rein in government debt .
Even before the virus , recent surveys found rising living costs and a lack of jobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as voters ’ top concerns .
It ’ s not clear yet what Muhyiddin ’ s policy will be .
Malaysia has long been seen as one of Southeast Asia ’ s most stable countries and enjoys relatively warm relations with China , its biggest trading partner .
It is participating in China ’ s ambitious infrastructure program known as Belt and Road , although Mahathir canceled one deal and renegotiated another last year to cut costs .
While Mahathir has regularly denounced the Trump administration over its trade policies and its Middle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Malaysia ’ s largest source of foreign-direct investment .
According to the U.S. State Department , the two countries cooperate closely on security matters , including counterterrorism and regional stability .
With some from the old government back in power , Mahathir has expressed concerns of possible political meddling in the legal process , which could undermine investor confidence .
Snap elections could be called if the new government proves unstable .
The key stock index , which has been one of the world ’ s worst-performers since the 2018 election , slumped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after Muhyiddin ’ s appointment .
The ringgit has been trading around its lowest level in two years .


washingtonpost--2020-03-02--Analysis | Worst of Coronavirus Is Yet to Come for U.S. Factories

Unlike retailers or airlines that feel the immediate hit of missed lattes and canceled flights , the supply-chain pain wrought by the coronavirus takes more time to manifest .
Most companies operate with some kind of buffer in inventory and many likely pulled forward work to accommodate the Chinese Lunar New Year .
There are positive signs that China is making progress bringing factories back on line as the spread of the coronavirus in that country slows .
But the longer this public-health crisis drags on , and the more countries it ensnares , the harder it is to ensure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far-flung networks .
Notably , one ISM respondent was quoted as saying the coronavirus “ is wreaking havoc on the electronics industry.
” That is bad news for the likes of 3M Co. and DuPont de Nemours Inc. , which supply materials and components to the sector .
Neither company included an impact from the coronavirus in their initial 2020 outlooks , nor have they issued a formal update .
The growing – and more troubling – concern is that the supply-chain disruption is just the tip of the iceberg , and that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on underlying demand .
Global manufacturing activity contracted in February by the most since 2009 amid a plunge in production and new export orders , according to the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI .
Aerospace is a particular watch item , with the International Air Transport Association forecasting the first decline in global passenger traffic since the financial crisis .
Notably , that assumed that the worst of the airline capacity cuts was confined to China-linked markets ; many carriers have since extended suspensions to Japan , South Korea and parts of Italy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ its short-haul flight program to and from Italy by up to 25 % for a three-week period amid weak demand .
Fewer flights means that fewer planes need the lucrative spare part and maintenance work that ’ s been supporting aerospace supplier ’ s profits amid the grounding of Boeing Co. ’ s 737 Max .
The prospect of monetary policy action and , in some cases , fiscal stimulus calmed markets on Monday and will soften the financial blow for companies grappling with disruption , but the Federal Reserve and European Central @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on planes .
As with most things related to the coronavirus , this latest data point on manufacturing is a reminder of how much we still don ’ t know about the virus itself and the ultimate economic impact .
But all signs point to more pain before the healing process begins .