washingtonpost--2020-04-26--Italy Starts to Ease Lockdown; U.S. Cases Up 3.3%: Virus Update

Almost a third of U.S. pork capacity is down , the first big poultry plants closed on Friday and experts are warning that shortages are just weeks away .
Brazil , the world ’ s No .
1 shipper of chicken and beef , saw its first major closure with the halt of a poultry plant owned by JBS SA , the world ’ s biggest meat company .
Key operations are also down in Canada .
The U.S. Small Business Administration is capping the value of loans banks can arrange under a relief program that restarts Monday .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could again dominate the lending and prevent money from getting to the mom-and-pop shops that need it the most.The SBA sent an email to lenders on Sunday limiting the maximum dollar amount of loans each bank can issue at 10 % of funding authority of the Jordan extended its shutdown for a majority of the public sector until the end of Ramadan , on May 23 , Minister of State for Media Affairs Amjad Adaileh said.Some ministries and public agencies will resume work within days , with few staff , he said .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ who have permits as the nation remains under a curfew , he said .


washingtonpost--2020-04-26--Analysis | Why a Second Wave of Covid-19 Is Already a Worry

Pandemics are caused by new pathogens that the vast majority of humans have no immune protection against .
That ’ s what allows them to become global outbreaks .
Pandemics are uncommon , but influenza is one of the more frequent causes .
What often happens is that a novel variant of flu virus spreads around the world and then recedes , kind of like a tsunami .
A few months later , it comes back and spreads around the world , or large parts of it , again .
Influenza pandemics can be temporarily beaten back by the change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hemisphere when the northern half of the globe heats up during its summer , and vice versa .
The virus may also have infected a huge portion of people in most areas , giving them immunity from re-infection and possibly creating so-called herd immunity , which protects those who haven ’ t been infected by curtailing the virus ’ s circulation .
In the case of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 , countries around the world have adopted movement restrictions on an unprecedented scale and social-distancing measures that together keep people far enough @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t easily spread .
There are a number of possibilities .
In the case of influenza , there ’ s the onset of cool weather , a factor that may affect the coronavirus , too .
Or the pathogen can mutate .
This is another feature of flu , which mutates more or less constantly .
In the fall of 1918 , a second wave of the historic influenza outbreak occurred and caused most of the deaths in the pandemic .
Some researchers believe it was brought about by a mutation that made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s immune systems .
Another important variable is the movement of the virus to populations that haven ’ t been exposed before and don ’ t have immunity .
In addition , the World Health Organization said on April 24 that there ’ s no evidence yet that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection .
The 2002-2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Asia never reached the scope of a pandemic .
Though caused by a coronavirus , it wasn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid-19 .
Its spread was mainly restricted to hospitals and other settings where people came in close contact with the body fluids of infected patients .
Ebola is another pathogen relatively new to humans .
There have been periodic outbreaks in Africa , but while the virus is highly contagious in some settings , it hasn ’ t been sufficiently infectious to spread around the world like the coronavirus .
There have been hints from China that a second wave is a risk .
Some areas of the country that were shut down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restrictions reimposed in March because of new cases .
Much of the rest of the world is still struggling to get the current wave under control .
Most areas that have contained the virus have done so using movement restrictions , which slow the virus ’ s spread but leave many people vulnerable to infection once they begin to venture out again , raising the prospect of second waves .
The WHO has recommended lifting movement restrictions in stages to test the effect of each before moving to greater openness .
In any @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to keeping infections low without locking down everyone is to scale up testing and contact tracing .
Health authorities need to find infected people , isolate them , and identify their recent contacts , so they can be tested as well and isolated if necessary .
Eventually , it ’ s possible that enough people will become exposed to the coronavirus that herd immunity will develop and it will stop spreading , or that a vaccine against it will be licensed .

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washingtonpost--2020-02-11--Analysis | Sometimes a Billionaire Just Needs a Volvo

Other moves , such as a spinoff , had already been signaled .
In a bond prospectus dated November , Geely Automobile said that Volvo and the parent intended to merge operations into a standalone business to develop “ next generation combustion engines and hybrid powertrains.
” Volvo Car said this would clear the way for it to focus on developing all-electric premium vehicles.Li has spent billions buying or building stakes in the likes of Mercedes Benz-maker Daimler AG , Volvo AB and Lotus Cars Ltd. through to flying-car maker Terrafugia Inc .
He was recently reported to be in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc .
Until now , he ’ s kept them separate but under his holding company .
Bringing the Swedish and Chinese car companies under the same umbrella makes sense at first glance .
Volvo Car ’ s stable profits ( $ 5.5 billion in 2019 ) could offset the tough terrain that Geely faces in China ’ s shrinking car market .
The two already collaborate through a joint venture on the Lynk & Co. brand .
Since the parent bought Volvo in 2010 , Geely ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it set up the joint China-Euro Vehicle Technology AB research and development center .
There ’ s also a case for cost sharing .
Volvo is focused on the higher- and greener-end of the car spectrum .
Geely hasn ’ t quite gotten there .
That will help as China pushes forward with its electric car ambitions .
The pair said in their statement that the merger would “ accelerate financial and technological synergies ” and create a strong global group .
So , let ’ s talk about the finances .
To @ @ @ @ @ @ @ piled on leverage at the Zhejiang Geely holding company level .
Net debt stood at $ 8.1 billion at the end of September , more than double from a year prior .
It needs to service that debt while feeding and funding its ambitions .
S & P Global Ratings expects the company ’ s leverage to increase this year as volumes and margins contract .
Volvo has been a cash source for its parent .
In 2019 , Volvo paid out dividends of 2.9 billion kronor ( $ 306 million ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its parent .
That was higher than the first dividends paid out in 2016 .
Volvo injected 1.15 billion kronor into another jointly-owned Geely brand , Polestar Group , last year .
Related-party transactions with the Geely sphere of companies totaled 4.1 billion kronor in 2019 .
Geely has held up relative to its auto-making peers , but earnings have been shrinking as sales in the world ’ s largest car market deteriorate .
Its ability to spend and stay ahead of the technology curve are also constrained .
It shelled out $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 12 months to June last year , compared to Volvo ’ s $ 1.25 billion in 2019 .
It ’ s clear who will be driving once they come together .
The parent company will keep its firm grip .
Through connected transactions , it holds the licenses that Geely uses to manufacture the cars in China .
Because of this structure , Geely can make and sell cars there while holding 99 % stakes in operating subsidiaries , despite its offshore incorporation , according to Moody ’ s Investors Service Inc. Li @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus potentially wreaking operational havoc , the parent company has to be in financial order .
A blockbuster valuation will help fund his future ambitions in a tougher global auto industry and pay down the debt he ’ s built up .
What better way than to create an improved asset in the new entity , give it a boost with your crown jewel , Volvo , and monetize it .
A more valuable asset makes for better collateral .
Li will look to maximize the efficiency of his capital .
Geely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 16 billion , trades at 7.2 times earnings before interest , tax , depreciation and amortization .
It ’ s sitting on cash of around $ 2 billion and very little debt .
Volvo generated $ 3.2 billion of Ebitda in 2019 .
Assuming a multiple of 2.5 times earnings , around that of other European carmakers , would value the Swedish company at around $ 8 billion .
The valuation of the combined entity will be higher .
Even two years ago , Volvo was looking for a valuation of double @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much as $ 30 billion when talk of going public alone surfaced .
Wherever the valuation comes out and whatever shareholders are willing to digest , let ’ s hope there are indeed synergies and Geely isn ’ t drawing too much out of Volvo Cars .
That may defeat the purpose of Li ’ s entire exercise .


washingtonpost--2020-02-12--Analysis | The World Is Conspiring to Make Gas Cheaper

Selling a commodity for a negative price isn ’ t quite as crazy as it sounds .
Indeed , it ’ s a relatively common occurrence .
Fuel oil — the gloopy fraction of crude used by boilers in ships , buildings and power stations — has hardly ever earned positive margins for refiners .
Instead , they aim to make their money on gasoline and diesel , treating fuel oil as a waste product from which they can extract a few extra dollars .
That ’ s the current situation with natural gas in the U.S. A growing proportion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own sake but as a byproduct from shale oil fields , where operators don ’ t care about the price of gas as long as it doesn ’ t stop them earning a positive margin on their crude production .
Output of this so-called associated gas has increased nearly fourfold from 4.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2006 to 15 billion in 2018 , according to the Energy Information Administration , making up about 37 % of shale gas production and 12 % of total U.S. gas output .
With this super-cheap @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the price at which the entire gas market clears is being driven lower .
Thanks in part to an unusually mild winter , the Henry Hub U.S. gas benchmark has fallen by more than a third since its usual early-winter peak at the start of November , hitting its lowest level since 2016 this week .
Even this effect would have been a strictly local issue a few years ago — but as the global liquefied natural gas industry grows up , that ’ s changing , too .
Traditionally gas prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ each other , but the situation is giving way to one where the cost of U.S. exports , plus a margin for transport and conversion to and from LNG , is increasingly setting a unified global price .
That ’ s likely to shake up many long-standing assumptions about the market .
Asia has been mostly immune to the switch of coal-fired generation to gas which , along with the headlong growth of renewables , has caused the rapid shutdown of coal fleets in the U.S. and Europe .
Without the significant domestic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices in Asia simply haven ’ t been competitive enough .
Except for brief periods in summer when gas demand is low , the Japan-Korea Marker gas benchmark has historically mostly priced its energy content at about twice what you ’ d pay for the same heating value of coal at China ’ s Qinhuangdao port .
That ’ s flipped so dramatically in recent months that even imported gas is now cheaper than coal on a heating value basis .
When you take into account the greater efficiency with which most gas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into electricity , the discount is even more pronounced .
Any utilities expecting current low prices to be sustained ought to be looking hard at switching away from solid to gaseous carbon for any generation that renewables can ’ t easily supply .
There ’ s good reason to think this glut isn ’ t going away .
China , a major driver of Asian gas demand in recent years , may be coming off the boil .
Slowing industrial demand and a shift toward electricity rather than gas for replacing coal in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Morgan Stanley analysts wrote last month .
Prices in Europe and Asia will potentially fall below $ 3 per million British thermal units , they wrote , approaching North American levels .
Add in the impact of coronavirus and Wood Mackenzie estimates demand this year will come to between 316 billion cubic meters and 324 billion , as much as 19 % below the Chinese National Energy Administration ’ s estimates of 350 billion cubic meters to 390 billion .
These conditions should cause producers to slow down — but if anything , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A record 71 million tons a year of LNG export capacity was commissioned in 2019 , adding about 97 billion cubic meters to the global market , according to Morgan Stanley .
That pace will surely decelerate , with projects such as Exxon Mobil Corp. ’ s P ’ nyang looking increasingly unlikely to be developed .
Still , should we see more success from the faltering crackdowns on flaring — the wasteful practice of burning off associated gas from oilfields — there ’ s another 140 billion cubic meters of gas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ being vented into the atmosphere .
Rock-bottom prices for gas , wind and solar swept through the energy sector in the western hemisphere over the past decade .
To date , only renewables have really made an impact in Asia .
With a flood of new gas supply approaching , that dam could be about to break .


washingtonpost--2020-02-12--Analysis | Singapore’s Virus Budget Will Challenge Hong Kong

A stimulus this large is justified .
Globalization can turbocharge prosperity , but can also amplify shocks such as a subprime crisis in the U.S. or a viral outbreak in China .
The Southeast Asian country ’ s small , open economy makes a living by facilitating flows of goods , money and people .
It ’ s a transport hub and has trading links to China .
As movement is disrupted , the epidemic will be costly , perhaps more so than during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome crisis .
When SARS hit Singapore in early 2003 , China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the coronavirus , had been a member of the World Trade Organization for a little more than a year .
The global electronics supply chain wasn ’ t as threatened as it is now by shutdowns and delays on the mainland .
Much of today ’ s Singapore — the Universal Studios theme park , the indoor Gardens by the Bay , or the two casinos — didn ’ t exist back then .
The city received 7.5 million visitors in 2002 compared with more than 17 million in the first 11 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ roll out a S $ 230 million package during SARS to help transport , retail , hospitality and food-and-beverage find their feet , the same industries — much larger now — will expect relief in Tuesday ’ s budget , after the tourism board projected a 25 % to 30 % drop in visitors this year .
Since the 2008-09 financial crisis , there ’ s been an unwritten contract between the ruling People ’ s Action Party and voters that while the AAA-rated sovereign won ’ t pay healthy working-age people to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purse-strings to keep unemployment , currently at 2.3 % , in check .
With general elections due any time between now and April next year , there was expectation that a chunk of the surpluses amassed by the current government would be spent to make voters feel good .
( DBS expects that S $ 2.3 billion will be shaved from this year ’ s projected S $ 3.5 billion deficit , taking the total available kitty to S $ 17.9 billion . )
That priority must change .
The new goal should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t blame the PAP , which has ruled uninterrupted since before independence in 1965 , for not doing enough to shelter their lives and livelihoods .
So far , Singapore appears to have acquitted itself well even as Hong Kong gets a rap for shortages of everything from face masks and toilet paper to effective communication .
But while the competing Asian financial centers occasionally profit from each other ’ s misery , there ’ s no scope for schadenfreude this time .
For all its failings , Hong Kong had more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , in 2018 , while Singapore had fewer than 13,000 .
Hong Kong ’ s population of 7.5 million isn ’ t much larger than Singapore ’ s 5.7 million .
The latter is boosting its healthcare capacity to prepare for an aging population .
But it ’ s still a work in progress : Near-real-time bed-occupancy figures don ’ t suggest a great deal of slack .
Since elections in 2011 , Singapore has managed public anger against overcrowding in housing estates and trains by curbing the numbers of foreign-born workers and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nearly 40 % of the total population .
If the outbreak takes a turn for the worse , voters are likely to ask , “ Why are so many foreigners taking our hospital beds ?
” The fiscal bullets in the budget must hit three marks .
First , healthcare spending earmarked for future years needs to be brought forward .
Next , business and job losses will have to be mitigated with targeted handouts and tax relief .
Finally , fiscal support for raising long-term competitiveness , especially for startups , should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ February , Hong Kong will announce its own budget against a grimmer economic backdrop .
Last year ’ s anti-government protests cratered the economy , while Singapore eked out some growth amid the U.S.-China trade spat .
A second year of decline will hurt Hong Kong , especially if the territory ’ s red-hot real estate — a crucial source of government revenue — loses its resilience .
While it ’ s too early to know how bad the coronavirus will eventually get , the competition to do good between a laissez-faire Hong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t be a bad thing for the people in either city .
As they queue up for toilet paper or worry if their jobs will survive , Hong Kongers will be rooting for a generous Singapore budget .


washingtonpost--2020-04-27--Analysis | Is Germany About to Undo All of Its Good Pandemic Work?

Admired for its success in containing one of the modern world ’ s worst pandemics , Germany is gradually exiting its self-imposed isolation .
Already the streets are busier and , though harder to pinpoint , the mood feels more relaxed .
How Germany navigates this treacherous path — opening up just enough to revive the economy without reigniting a second virus wave — will be watched closely in the U.S. , the U.K. and other hard-hit countries .
There ’ s a danger that a comparatively fortunate crisis experience leads to overconfidence .
Germany ’ s infrastructure can handle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the capacity to conduct 136,000 tests daily , though fewer than 325,000 are conducted each week , and it ’ s expanding local armies of “ contact tracers ” to track infection chains .
There are 13,000 unoccupied intensive care beds nationwide , about 40 % of the total .
Unusually for the meticulous Germans , the challenge is rather a question of mentality .
Italians and Spaniards will never forget the appalling scenes that unfolded in their overcrowded hospitals .
New Yorkers too will be haunted by the wail of sirens as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In contrast , Germany ’ s health system was never overwhelmed by coronavirus cases , in part because the outbreak affected mainly young people to begin with .
Even now in Berlin , “ only ” about 125 of the city ’ s 3.6 million inhabitants have died from the disease ; nationwide there have been fewer than 6,000 recorded virus deaths , about a quarter of the total in neighboring France .
Germans too have suffered trauma and economic hardship .
But compared to the severe social-distancing measures in places like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ leave the house for weeks on end , Germany ’ s lockdown was relatively relaxed .
Gyms and nightclubs closed but weekly food markets and garden centers often stayed open .
Germans were even free to take a walk with someone not from their own household provided they didn ’ t get too close .
Enterprising Berlin establishments were happy to supply you with a takeaway cocktail to drink while you ambled .
There ’ s now a lively political debate here about when and how to restart economic and social life , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ways to protect public health .
Unlike in the U.S. , the discussion is mostly rational and informed .
Still , it ’ s not hard to see why Chancellor Angela Merkel and top virologists are worried that people are being too hasty .
The virus reproduction rate — the estimated mean number of people infected by each case — is only slightly below one and could easily rise again .
“ Nobody wants to hear it but we ’ re not at the end of the pandemic but rather still at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s parliament last week .
The country is on “ thin ice , ” she added .
Germany ’ s federal states have considerable autonomy , and as one state relaxes virus restrictions — perhaps because they don ’ t have as many infections — it creates pressure on others to follow suit .
Inconsistencies and contradictions in the reopening policies risk sending the wrong signal and undermining support for the remaining restrictions .
Smaller German stores ( those with a surface area of less than 800 square meters ) have reopened , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attract smaller crowds .
But much larger department stores have also started up again in some cities , complying with the size cap by sealing off sections of the shop floor .
Similarly , some shopping malls are open as their smaller tenants return to business .
Berlin ’ s zoo resumes service this week with a cap on the maximum number of daily visitors , new toilet door handles that visitors can open with their elbow , and a picnic ban .
Meanwhile , the Bundesliga soccer league is pressing to resume @ @ @ @ @ @ @ next month , despite the danger that fans will gather outside the stadium .
Schools are gradually starting up again too , beginning with older kids facing exams .
There ’ s pressure for kindergartens to do the same , even though it will be nearly impossible to keep very young kids apart .
Creches are already available for an ever-expanding list of key workers .
You ’ d expect Merkel , a scientist by training and an inherently cautious person , to keep her foot on the brake .
Doing so has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exceed 80 % .
Nevertheless , the race to succeed her as chancellor could create divisions about how fast to relax the restrictions .
Regional premiers Armin Laschet and Markus Soeder , who are among the favorites , have staked out different positions .
Laschet wants to move faster and has criticized virologists for shifting the goalposts on when to reopen , while Soeder is more cautious ( his state of Bavaria has the most cases ) .
Barring occasional bouts of frivolity such as Munich ’ s Oktoberfest , which remains cancelled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of popular stereotype .
But in view of the country ’ s dark history they ’ re acutely sensitive about infringements of rights and freedoms .
They ’ re also quick to seize advantage when economic opportunity opens up and to make the rules work for them .
This can-do spirit is the foundation of the country ’ s business success but could yet prove its undoing .


washingtonpost--2020-04-27--Analysis | We’re All Going on a Winter Holiday

There are the optimists : Almost three-quarters of the people who were due to sail in May , but had their dream cruise canceled by British operator Saga Plc , chose to rebook at a later date .
The pessimists : More than half of Americans surveyed by Destination Analysts agreed their next vacation would be a “ staycation.
” Those organized souls who planned their July Fourth escapes before Covid-19 was upon us are playing wait-and-see .
French hotel giant Accor SA has seen less than 10 % of reservations for July and August scrapped .
But it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 25-30 % , as opposed to 75 % , when travel begins again What ’ s clear is that we ’ re all going to be expecting something different for our next getaway : hotels with detailed Covid-19 symptom checks , abundant hand sanitizer , rigorous disinfecting and bars and restaurants configured for social distancing .
The $ 5 trillion global tourism industry has already taken a huge hit from the pandemic , and it ’ s not over .
Figuring out how to cater to tourists and business travelers in this new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even the most flexible and deep-pocketed companies .
The about 35 % gain in the Stoxx 600 Travel & Leisure Index since March 18 looks overly optimistic .
In the near term , consumers may be reluctant to crowd into airplanes or return to busy tourist hot spots .
In response , European discount carrier EasyJet Plc said it ’ s likely to leave middle seats empty on aircraft with a three-seat configuration , at least when it first resumes flights .
The cruise industry , a haunting symbol of the Covid-19 outbreak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which are more easily adapted to social distancing , a robust on-board medical staff and promises to fly holidaymakers home at the first whiff of a problem .
Flexible booking policies without any deposit may become the norm .
If all this fails to tempt , then deep discounts will be necessary .
This season may be a washout but there are some signs things will pick back up .
Dart Group Plc said on Friday that bookings were still coming in to its Jet2 leisure travel business for late summer .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this time last year .
Even if some of this may be rescheduling of trips that were canceled , it illustrates people ’ s eagerness to travel once again .
To capture pent-up demand , tour operators including European giant TUI AG and Jet2 have launched their 2021 summer holiday programs early .
It may still be a hard sell depending on the destination .
For Italy , Spain and France , as well as New York City , the repercussions of having been the epicenter of the pandemic at some point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 18 months for travel to Paris to recover completely after the harrowing 2015 terrorist attacks .
With international flights grounded and foreign tourists unwelcome in most places , it ’ s impossible to say how soon we can start trotting the globe again .
The big luxury and event-oriented hotels , such as those operated by Marriott International Inc. and Hyatt Hotels Corp. , are more dependent on international travelers than their more downmarket peers .
Companies will likely shore up offerings for domestic tourists .
For example , Saga , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ offers cruises around the British isles .
This business could be expanded if customers are nervous about venturing further afield .
In more thrifty times , people tend to seek out no-frills lodging .
In the U.S. , Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc. , has the most exposure to the economy and mid-scale sectors , with brands such as Super 8 , Ramada and Days Inn , according to Brian Egger , an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence .
In Europe , Whitbread Plc has the Premier Inn chain in Germany and the U.K. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are outside of London .
Airbnb Inc. may be a big beneficiary if tourists seek out private residences to avoid mingling with too many people in hotel lobbies , elevators or restaurants .
The trailblazer for the sharing economy may provide more options in smaller towns or isolated regions .
But as with hotels , people must have confidence in hosts ’ hygiene standards .
It ’ s hard to say just how bad and enduring the impact from this new coronavirus will be .
For those companies that manage to adjust , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some positive long-term prospects , as more people enter the middle class around the world and an aging population has more leisure time .
But it will take much more than pictures of idyllic getaways to woo them .


washingtonpost--2020-04-27--U.S. Loans Didn’t Flow to Businesses Most at Risk, Study Shows

“ We find no evidence that funds flowed to areas that were more adversely affected by the economic effects of the pandemic , ” economists João Granja , Christos Makridis , Constantine Yannelis , and Eric Zwick wrote .
If anything , the data suggests that funds flowed to areas less hard hit , according to the report , with a higher share of businesses receiving loans in “ areas with better employment outcomes , fewer Covid-19 related infections and deaths , and less social distancing.
” The findings are key to understanding the state of business and the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and how and when it could recover .
The government ’ s small business loans program ran through its $ 349 billion in funds within two weeks .
An additional $ 320 billion is set to become available Monday after being approved by lawmakers last week .
The study also provides more transparency on the program as hundreds of thousands of companies rush for cash .
So far , more than 26 million Americans have lost their jobs in the crisis , basically erasing the job gains seen during the longest U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the Small Business Administration , the government arm that ran the program , to see which lenders were most active and where .
They paired that with figures from Homebase , a software firm that provides scheduling and payroll support for about 100,000 local firms , to gauge the real-time reaction in the labor market via hours , wages , and overall employment -- particularly the hard-hit retail and the hospitality sectors .
Another finding , and one that could explain the skew of funds , is that the top four lenders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of America Corp. , Wells Fargo & Co. , and Citigroup Inc. ) disbursed less than 3 % of PPP loans in the first tranche ; they usually account for about one-third of all small business loans .
The banks ’ branches are located in parts of the country that received less funding , the researchers found .
Wells Fargo also had an asset-cap restriction , which the Federal Reserve removed temporarily earlier this month .
For example , Cleveland , Ohio-based KeyCorp made up a greater share of total PPP volume than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Citigroup combined -- even though its share of small business loans is usually much less , according to the analysis .
Nevertheless there are concerns that in the next round of funding to start Monday , big banks could have the advantage because they ’ ve been preparing a barrage of loan applications since the first round of the program ended April 16 .
To help spread the loans among lenders this time , the Small Business Administration is capping the value of loans individual banks can arrange under the program .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Moynihan said Sunday that the government needs to ensure that the lending program is fully-funded and able to provide cash to all small companies that need it , rather than it operating on a first-come , first-served basis .


washingtonpost--2020-04-09--Built in Weeks, Relief System for Canadian Businesses Goes Live

“ We do expect incredibly heavy volume , but we believe our solution is going to hold up well , ” said Irvine , also head of Canadian business banking at Bank of Montreal .
“ Canada ’ s done a great job in getting this done in a really short period of time , and when we look back on this I think that Canada ’ s going to look pretty good on a global basis.
” Canadian lenders are now accepting applications for the Canada Emergency Business Account , a government-guaranteed loan of as much as C $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2022 .
Of that amount , 25 % is eligible for forgiveness as long as C $ 30,000 is paid back by the end of that year .
It ’ s among the government relief measures unveiled worldwide amid a pandemic that ’ s disrupted commerce , upended economies and taken more than 88,000 lives globally .
“ There ’ s very , very significant demand for this , ” Irvine said in an interview .
“ For any company that has experienced significant revenue shortfalls in the last three weeks as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the spread of Covid-19 , this is really the first piece of stimulus hitting the system.
” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the plan on March 27 , targeting a mid-April rollout .
That left banks and the government mere weeks to build something from scratch , a challenge even in normal times .
Yet , as of Wednesday , all of Canada ’ s six biggest lenders said they ’ re ready to accept applications starting Thursday .
“ We ’ ve probably done six to nine months ’ work in 2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ I ’ ve been up to the early hours in the morning many days in the last couple of weeks , and I am certainly not alone in that.
” Bank of Montreal , like other Canadian lenders , turned to technology to automate the application process .
The goal is for the application to take less than five minutes online , with approval given immediately .
In most cases , funds will be deposited directly into a client ’ s account within five business days , with no need to visit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ center .
Toronto-based Bank of Montreal has emailed more than 300,000 small-business clients to let them know about the program and encourage them to apply .
The response has been overwhelming already , Irvine said , and he estimates that 200,000 customers will sign up for loans .
“ There ’ s no reason why any business , frankly , that is eligible should not apply , ” Irvine said .


washingtonpost--2020-04-13--Congress Gridlocked Amid Aid Pleas From Businesses, Governors

Lawmakers are still scattered across the country , so getting something done this week would likely require unanimous consent in Congress -- a tall order in any event and harder still with party leaders themselves nowhere near agreement .
House Democrats announced Monday the chamber is not expected to return to Washington before May 4 , rather than April 20 as previously scheduled , although members could be called back early if votes are needed on legislation related to the coronavirus .
“ Small businesses , hospitals , frontline workers and state and local governments across the country are struggling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer wrote in a joint statement .
“ They need more help from the federal government and they need it fast.
” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicated Monday that the administration was sticking to focusing on the small business aid.He said at a White House briefing that there is an immediate need to add funding to the Paycheck Protection Program and if more needs to be done to support other areas of the economy the administration will work with Congress to accomplish that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stimulus package.That could include money for infrastructure projects to put people to work , aid to hospitals and incentives for Americans that will bolster restaurants and other businesses , Mnuchin said .
The economy faces fierce headwinds that have leaders in both parties proposing massive additional spending .
Some 17 million Americans have lost their jobs in the past month .
By Monday evening , there had been more than 959,000 applications for the small business aid approved totaling over $ 232 billion , about two-thirds of the money available , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the millions thrown out of work also are plunging state budgets into turmoil as revenue falls and expenses escalate .
Governors want half a trillion dollars in economic aid , far more than even the Democrats have suggested so far .
“ The Covid-19 response is resulting in catastrophic damage to state economies , and fiscal assistance is critical now so that we can continue leading this fight , ” National Governors Association Chairman Larry Hogan , a Maryland Republican , said in a statement Monday .
“ Without sufficient federal relief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prospect of significant reductions to essential services.
” Democrats want changes to the Paycheck Protection Program to focus more of the money on smaller banks and smaller businesses .
They also want to allocate an additional $ 250 billion in aid to states and hospitals .
The political risks of delay will ramp up once the money is gone , given that millions of businesses -- particularly smaller ones -- risk getting left out as banks prioritize their best customers .
Many small businesses are on the brink , or worse .
Given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all but certain .
But to do it this week , lawmakers will have to find a way to bridge the partisan split so that legislation can be approved by unanimous consent .
Even if the leaders agree , any one senator or House member can force days of delays or even roll call votes , which as of now must be conducted in person despite the risk of spreading infection .
Objections are all but certain unless both parties can get at least some of what they want .
One key difference @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in town and McConnell had convened bipartisan task forces that had hammered out much of the bones of the legislation over multiple days , with buy-in from key senators .
There was no such bipartisan give-and-take last week .
And getting a complicated , multi-part package like the one Democrats are demanding will be challenging with most lawmakers out of town and talking to each other via conference calls .


washingtonpost--2020-04-25--U.S. Cases Rise 4.5%; Spain to Further Ease Limits: Virus Update

Catching Covid-19 once may not protect you from getting it again , according to the World Health Organization .
“ @ @ @ @ @ that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second @ @ @ @ @ Nations agency said in an April 24 statement .
Fatalities from the virus in Germany @ @ @ @ @ days .
Deaths rose by 148 to 5,723 in the 24 hours through Saturday morning @ @ @ @ @ Friday ’ s daily rise of 260 , according to data from Johns Hopkins University @ @ @ @ @ cases , bringing the total to 154,545 , the fourth-highest in Europe .


washingtonpost--2020-04-18--Analysis | Saudi Arabia Should Spend Like the Debtor It Is

Alarmingly , the most sensible item on that shopping list may well be the 13th-placed team in the English Premier League .
Carnival shares , for instance , are already down by about a third since the kingdom ’ s Public Investment Fund completed its acquisition of stock in the business last month .
A country as over-exposed to crude as Saudi Arabia shouldn ’ t be using its sovereign wealth fund to buy more oil , either .
Equinor ’ s controlling shareholder , the state of Norway , last year instructed its pension fund to sell off investments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as to “ make the government ’ s wealth less vulnerable to a permanent drop in oil prices.
” Saudi Arabia is doing the opposite .
Even the PIF ’ s more prudent attempts to diversify its exposures into businesses distant from oil demand haven ’ t panned out so well .
A pre-listing investment of $ 3.5 billion in Uber Technologies Inc. is worth less than $ 2 billion now .
Its 38 % stake in South Korea ’ s Posco Engineering & Construction Co. has lost more than two-thirds of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And the kingdom managed to sell out of Tesla Inc. before its extraordinary rally at the start of the year .
As rich heirs have known since time immemorial , a string of failed business ventures doesn ’ t need to cramp your style as long as that endowment cash keeps flowing — but the problem for Saudi Arabia is that , as we ’ ve argued , those days are fast running out .
As recently as 2014 , years of outsize profits on crude had left the government sitting on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gross domestic product .
Since then , lower prices and incontinent spending have eroded Saudi Arabia ’ s nest egg with astonishing speed .
Net debt will hit 19 % of GDP this year , according to the International Monetary Fund , before rising to 27 % next year , while coronavirus and oil-fight measures could push gross borrowing to 50 % by 2022 .
That ’ s still modest by rich-country standards , but none is as leveraged as Saudi Arabia is to the price of a single commodity , as my @ @ @ @ @ @ @ extraordinary cuts to its budget or a 2008-style oil price spike , the kingdom is likely to remain a net debtor for the foreseeable future .
Lenders already appear to be taking notice .
Thanks to the general virus-inspired market panic and the specific effects of the current oil-price war , five-year credit default swaps insuring against non-payment of Saudi Arabia ’ s debt are currently running at about 179 basis points .
That puts the country in the company of India , Indonesia , and Russia in terms of perceived credit risks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Spain , Portugal , Ireland and Iceland .
Its sovereign bonds still have a weighted average coupon of 3.43 % and maturity in the latter half of 2030 , so for the moment things seem comfortable enough .
But lower-for-longer oil prices could cause that outlook to unwind remarkably quickly , especially if the kingdom ’ s fast-shrinking foreign reserves start putting pressure on the riyal ’ s dollar peg .
Despite the PIF ’ s shopping spree , there are signs that Riyadh is aware of how constrained its circumstances are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s announcement of a ceasefire in the bloody five-year war in Yemen is welcome for humanitarian reasons — but it ’ s also necessary on a more pragmatic level .
Saudi Arabia ’ s military spending is the third-biggest globally after the U.S. and China , and amounts to an extraordinary 8.8 % of GDP — the highest share of any country for which the World Bank has recent data .
The ceasefire is being attributed to the impact of Covid-19 , but it ’ s hard not to notice that military spending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level in a decade .
When the finances get tight , you just don ’ t have the money to spend on a quagmire that you once did .
That willingness to make cuts is welcome — but once you add the amounts dedicated to domestic security , some 28 % of Saudi Arabia ’ s budget is still going on such expenditures .
It ’ s not surprising that a government lacking popular legitimacy in the middle of a strife-torn region should be spending a lot of money on self-preservation .
Still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 33 million-strong population is under 25 might want to invest more on health , education and other longer-term goals .
It ’ s probably that 1 trillion riyal ( $ 271 billion ) government budget , rather than splashy overseas acquisitions , where the biggest savings need to be made right now .
The message is the same , though : Riyadh needs to start cutting its coat according to its cloth , and fast .


washingtonpost--2020-04-14--Analysis | The U.S. Didn’t Need 50 Different Covid-19 Strategies

Add in weak testing capacity , a fragmented health care system and a thin social safety net , and it ’ s easy to see why the U.S. has suffered the world ’ s worst coronavirus outbreak .
The final toll will depend on whether the reopening of the country is as disjointed .
A group of East Coast states led by New York announced Monday that they will work together on a cautious return to economic normalcy .
California , Washington and Oregon declared a similar alliance shortly afterward .
Such cooperation could make Americans safer going forward than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ individual states have gone their own way .
“ Y ’ all we are not Louisiana , we are not New York State , we are not California , ” Alabama Governor Kay Ivey said late last month , defending her initial decision not to impose a stay-at-home order .
As her state ’ s case count grew , she was forced to change course .
Similar rhetoric has been used by governors in other states , including Missouri and Florida , that have been slow to enact strong statewide rules or still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ late-acting states now have fast-growing outbreaks and more cases per 100,000 residents than there are in California , whose governor acted quickly to stem one of the country ’ s earliest-detected epidemics .
Obviously , stay-home orders work best when they ’ re put in place before there ’ s significant community spread .
South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem has argued that it would be pointless to enact a significant stay-at-home order , because it would need to be maintained until October .
Her implication is that it would be preferable to weather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Now she may be getting one : A Sioux Falls pork processing plant , one of the largest in the country , was forced to close over the weekend after 293 workers tested positive for Covid-19 .
Governors also have variously defined which businesses are “ essential ” enough to remain open .
Arizona Governor Doug Ducey included nail salons , until statewide criticism persuaded him that wasn ’ t a good decision .
Golf courses in Arizona , and in other states as well , remain open .
And in some states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ non-essential businesses can continue operating if they abide by loosely enforced distancing guidelines .
Some states demand distancing measures for services or limit size .
But such rules are difficult to enforce , especially on a major holiday .
Ahead of Easter Sunday , Kansas legislators revoked Governor Laura Kelly ’ s mandate to limit religious services to 10 people , a move she rightly called “ shockingly irresponsible.
” The state ’ s Supreme Court went on to back her restrictions .
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear came up with a much more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the license plate numbers of people attending services that didn ’ t follow his state ’ s crowd limits — so that they can be given orders to quarantine for the next 14 days .
Ideally , the federal government would broadly enforce a national shutdown , make sure all hospitals have the supplies they need , and help broadcast essential public health messages .
Some states are responsibly working to fill the gap .
The governors of Kentucky and Ohio have turned their daily briefings into must-watch television , and Alaska has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ communities with limited health care access .
California will send thousands of needed professionals into the field to provide health care and testing .
New York has vastly expanded hospital capacity .
And Connecticut ’ s ban on surprise medical billing will provide essential financial protection for its residents .
As attention turns toward opening the economy , the White House has an opportunity to better follow the dictates of public health .
Unfortunately , the planning has already been politicized .
Picking up on Trump ’ s obvious preference for an early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Greg Abbott is already calling for quickly relaxing restrictions .
At the same time , New York , Connecticut , Rhode Island , Pennsylvania and New Jersey collectively pledged to take a close look at incoming data and wait for recovery before loosening distancing .
If Trump can now listen to experts and help orchestrate a careful reopening — keeping impatient governors in line and supporting regional groups with federal resources — he could avert further damage and at last show how a federal system can function well in a crisis .
If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ return to work early , or lets some open the floodgates at will — before there is widespread testing and better data on how widely Covid-19 has spread — we ’ ll see renewed outbreaks and another round of orders to stay home .
Most likely , given Trump ’ s reluctance to lead in this crisis , the country ’ s best hope is that more governors will band together to act forcefully on their own .


washingtonpost--2020-04-14--Analysis | The Great Recession Was Bad. The ‘Great Lockdown’ Is Worse.

Having said that , the specific projections still look too optimistic ; and I say this notwithstanding the enormous uncertainty that still surrounds the duration of this new recession , how it will be lifted and what ’ s on the other side .
The optimism isn ’ t limited to a few countries .
It starts with the U.S. and Europe , and extends to many other nations , both advanced and developing .
As such , a negative 3 % global growth in 2020 may be the sunny scenario .
We should hope for it , but plan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comes to the vulnerable developing economies where the risk of massive human tragedy is already too high .
Bill Dudley , president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from 2009 to 2018 : In my view , it is a reasonable forecast .
But it should be taken with a grain of salt given the considerable uncertainty that surrounds the outlook in a vast array of dimensions .
A non-exhaustive list includes : the effectiveness and sustainability of social distancing ; the course of the coronavirus and the impact this has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ take cruises , go to restaurants ) ; the timeline for when a vaccine will become broadly available ; and the impact on government , household and business balance sheets and how that affects future saving and spending decisions .
There is considerable uncertainty about each dimension and all these aspects will interact in complex ways that we can not fully anticipate.Narayana Kocherlakota , president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 2009 to 2015 : The IMF ’ s new growth outlook for 2020 is a dire one , and includes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. of almost 6 % .
The baseline outlook for 2021 is much brighter , but it is predicated on the assumption that “ the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020.
” The alternative scenario , in which Covid-19 and associated stringent public-health interventions persist into 2021 , unfortunately seems highly likely to me .
Fortunately , countries such as the U.S. and Germany are able to borrow at extraordinarily low interest rates .
They should be prepared to make full use of that fiscal capacity to support the global economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ duration , and to provide much-needed vigor to the recovery that follows.John Authers , senior editor for markets : A 3 % contraction in the global economy this year would be very , very bad .
The one number needed for context is 0.1 % .
That was the fall in global gross domestic product during the Great Recession year of 2009 .
We all know that the worst downturn in generations will be due to the greatest voluntary halt in economic activity in history .
But it ’ s also important to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were worried about even before Covid-19 .
China ’ s Energizer Bunny growth has kept the entire global economy ticking along for three decades and alone almost stopped growth from going negative in 2009 .
Its growth is no longer so reliable , and the IMF ’ s pessimism owes a lot to the way China is trying to handle its economic transition .
Beyond that , as Bloomberg noted in impressive detail last year , economic predictions are difficult .
The IMF does still matter .
As an organization it is arguably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forecasts like this .
We should attempt to navigate the world ahead of us with some kind of a road map , and this is the best it can manage .
But the IMF does have a tendency to underestimate growth , and with impressive honesty it admitted back in 2014 that its forecasts are no more or less accurate than those of private-sector competitors .
So we can still hope that it has underestimated growth this time .
Tim Duy , professor of economics at the University of Oregon : The IMF @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be the steepest contraction in a century .
Acknowledge , though , that we are also witnessing support in the U.S. that is impressive in both its size and speed as policy makers rush to put a floor under the economy .
The Federal Reserve has taken a whatever-it-takes approach to shoring up financial markets and preventing a credit collapse , while Congress has enhanced unemployment insurance to provide generous benefits to a wider range of workers .
It also has funded forgivable loans to small- and medium-sized companies to encourage them to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sure , not everyone will be caught in the safety net and the money is moving out the door slower than we would like .
Still , the substantial amount of support for the economy should limit the downside .
The bottom will be deep relative to where we began , but not nearly as deep as it would be absent the policy support .
Eventually , the economy will restart , and while it may be many months until we have a widely distributed vaccine or other therapeutic cure , we are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transition , businesses and individuals will have to learn how to live with the virus .
Continued policy support will be essential to fostering gains even as we confront a new normal for the economy .
As for workers , we may see a historic gap between the income received by Americans and the number of them who are employed .
If 20 million Americans are thrown out of work by the crisis , but the vast majority are receiving $ 900 weekly in unemployment benefits thanks to legislation passed by Congress , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to pay their bills .
It may be temporary , but American workers have a safety net like they ’ ve never had before .
The economic shocks resulting from the coronavirus may be the only option if we ’ re going to prevent millions of deaths .
But if we get the policy response right , and so far we ’ ve been moving in the right direction , then we might have record unemployment for a while but also defeat the virus while ensuring that people get paid even if they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be our objective , and if we achieve that goal , it would be an outcome to celebrate .
First , there ’ s the global nature of the crisis .
The Great Recession was a U.S.-centric downturn that later became a Europe-centric downturn .
The coronavirus pandemic is hitting every major country in the world at more or less the same time .
Every advanced economy is in some form of lockdown and every emerging market economy is being hit by capital outflows , collapsing commodity prices and the threat of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when some countries start to recover , they will be slowed by the many others that aren ’ t .
Second , the coronavirus depression will lead to enduring policy changes that will further disrupt the world ’ s economic system .
A rise in financial nationalism and an attempt to bring important supply chains within national borders will partially reverse globalization ; both business models and asset markets will take years to readjust.Third , Donald Trump ’ s administration has shown itself to be rudderless and ineffectual during the crisis , suggesting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remain weak and haphazard throughout 2020 .
Better policy may or may not arrive in 2021 , but by then crucial time will have been lost .


washingtonpost--2020-04-10--Tech Startups Can Apply for U.S. Relief Funds. Should They?

The pool of cash we ’ re talking about is the Small Business Administration ’ s Paycheck Protection Program , part of Congress ’ s coronavirus bailout effort .
Small businesses of all stripes are now rushing to apply for the program ’ s $ 349 billion in available loan money ( and possibly another $ 250 billion if an expansion goes through ) .
The so-called PPP loans turn into grants if companies keep their employees in their jobs .
At first it seemed like venture-backed startups , along with companies funded by private equity firms , didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ getting government funding .
But after a few tweaks in the requirements , the situation is now more ambiguous for venture-backed companies .
The government is no longer requiring that minority investors risk criminal consequences if the startup misappropriates the funds—a breakthrough , even though startups will still have to make complicated disclosures about their investors .
( Private equity-backed companies at this moment seem mostly out of luck . )
But just because tech companies can , doesn ’ t mean they should .
One legal and ethical wrinkle is baked into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part of the application process , companies are asked to certify that “ current economic uncertainty makes this loan request necessary to support the ongoing operations of the applicant.
” What ’ s necessary ?
There ’ s so much uncertainty in the world of startups .
Most venture-backed companies are just trying to make it to their next financing round .
If runway is running short , it might be tempting to take a government loan along the way to your Series B .
Indeed , some people think their companies should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ George Arison tweeted that the government shut the economy down and it “ feels like eligible businesses should be treated equally.
” If the goal of the loan program is to keep people employed , there is a logic to funding startups .
Employees are usually one of tech companies ’ biggest costs , so cash-strapped startups lay off their employees to try to stay afloat like everyone else .
Those layoffs are happening .
And in general , these scrappy upstarts are more sympathetic than , say , Boeing Co. , whose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its stock .
( Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya made the case against bailing out shareholders in big corporations . )
But most startups , which raised near-record levels of funding last year , don ’ t need the money in the way that local restaurants or repair shops need the money .
And many laid off tech employees will find themselves better off than dishwashers or mechanics who lose their jobs .
Indeed , some founders have concluded that the funds wouldn ’ t be necessary for their companies ’ near-term survival , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apply .
The problem , of course , is that the loan program is finite .
Those restaurants and barbershops , without any access to VCs or other forms of capital , could lose out because a startup put in an application first .
If the system works well , a business like Nopa—the San Francisco restaurant favored by tech types for its perfect $ 20 grilled cheeseburger—would get the bailout over the startup offering to do its delivery .
Startups fail fast , pivot and come back , but beet hummus is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ story is a deep dive on Zoom .
CEO Eric Yuan talks about sleepless nights worrying about Zoombombing , keeping the company ’ s servers from getting overwhelmed with traffic , and the never-ending conference call grind .
“ It ’ s too many Zoom meetings , ” he says , via Zoom .
“ I hate that.
” Read it here .
There are now more than 100 million people using Google Classroom , a free service teachers can use to send out assignments and communicate with students , double the number @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-04-10--Analysis | How to Make a Faster Coronavirus Vaccine

First , life may not fully return to normal until an effective vaccine is developed , manufactured in mass quantities and distributed worldwide .
Anything but the cautious reopening of economies in the meantime will likely lead to significant second-wave outbreaks and renewed physical distancing .
There ’ s no substitute for herd immunity .
Second , despite recent scientific advances and heroic efforts to speed vaccines to market , the 12- to 18-month timeline that public-health officials keep referring to is an aspiration rather than a certainty .
Private companies and government labs are rushing vaccine candidates into trials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that they ’ ll prove safe , effective and easily scalable .
The world simply hasn ’ t made the sort of long-term investments needed for a pandemic-ready vaccine .
Making vaccines is difficult and expensive in the best of times .
It usually takes years to bring a candidate to market .
On top of the scientific difficulty , vaccines must clear an exceptionally high safety bar : Unlike just about any other treatment , they ’ re given to otherwise healthy people in large quantities .
Any significant side effects can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ careful testing is required to avoid harm .
By one estimate , getting a single epidemic infectious disease vaccine from the preclinical stage to large-scale testing costs between $ 319 million and $ 469 million .
These costs and risks are elevated further in a pandemic , because there ’ s no time for the usual lengthy and cautious process .
Researchers are still trying to figure out what animals to use to test potential vaccines , for instance , yet preclinical testing , dose selection and human trials are proceeding at warp @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increases the chances of mistakes that may not be caught until later .
To have something available on a reasonable timeline , manufacturing capacity will have to be built before efficacy and safety are confirmed.Looming on the other side of this enormously costly process is a series of abject market failures .
Long vaccine timelines mean that epidemics often putter out , leaving no demand for the product .
That ’ s unlikely in this case , but companies that leaped into the challenge of developing SARS and Zika vaccines saw commitment and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In Congressional testimony in March , Peter Hotez , a Texas-based researcher , described being unable to find public or private funding to bring a promising SARS vaccine into trials once the transmission of the disease stopped .
He wasn ’ t alone , and as a result , the world lacks valuable insight about a vaccine for a similar coronavirus .
Even if an effective vaccine does emerge on time , there ’ s no guarantee of recouping costs , let alone making money .
In many cases , infectious diseases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to pay .
Covid-19 is a rare exception that is also ravaging wealthier nations .
But that doesn ’ t ensure a return .
Germany ’ s parliament recently extended powers allowing the government to suspend patent rights in response to the crisis ; emergency legislation in Canada permits the same thing .
If nations don ’ t like the price of a vaccine or sufficient quantities aren ’ t available , they ’ ll just make it for themselves .
It ’ s heartening that even against this challenging backdrop , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidates in development .
That variety should boost the chances of at least one success .
However , few entrants have successfully developed and globally scaled a vaccine , and none has done so for a novel pathogen within 18 months .
An essential step in that direction is to offer a major prize , or better yet a generous guaranteed purchase order , for a Covid-19 vaccine that meets reasonable standards of efficacy and safety .
A guaranteed payment helps reduce concerns about intellectual-property seizure and commercial viability .
Various prizes have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but big problems require bigger incentives .
The Center for Global Development recently published a thoughtful report noting that there should also be rewards for better and slower options that advance science .
This would encourage sustained investment and hedge against late-stage failure .
Any award should also include an assessment of value : the safer and better the vaccine , the bigger the prize .
Ideally , this would be an international effort , boosting the size and sustainability of the prizes while reducing the financial burden .
Getting to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ however .
Manufacturing and distribution are going to require another coordinated , open-source international effort .
Creating substantial manufacturing capacity for several candidates that use different and sometimes novel technologies — some of which will likely be failures — will be an enormously costly endeavor .
Picking the wrong winner or waiting too long will have unacceptable consequences .
It ’ s the definition of a global-scale project and a public good .
Leaving manufacturing to individual countries or companies will likely lead to shortages and unequal distribution .
It ’ s all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ heavily as poorer countries with greater need and weaker health systems wait .
Hefty coordinated investment in both adapting existing manufacturing capacity and creating new lines will solve part of the problem .
The CDG report suggests making prizes conditional on the provision of low-cost licenses for lower-income countries .
These measures should be put in place sooner rather than later — anything to get a vaccine to market faster .
There would also be a long-term benefit ; the collective support of Covid-19 vaccines could serve as a foundation for better long-term @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financing system that plays a consistent role from discovery to manufacturing and allocation .
In the current crisis , groups such as the World Health Organization and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations could administer these programs and get them running quickly .
In the longer run , a new global agency should be created to dedicate the attention and funding this issue needs .
A more established organization and a permanent prize system should create stable enough demand to encourage companies to invest in infectious diseases as a business proposition , rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would also create a better environment for so-called vaccine platforms , technologies that allow for the creation of vaccines for multiple pathogens via the same basic formula .
Newer approaches , such as the mRNA vaccines in development by Moderna Therapeutics Inc. , offer the potential for faster responses than were possible in previous epidemics .
But these efforts are still untested , especially under rapid-response conditions .
It ’ s likely that years of sustained support are needed to get novel platforms to the point where they can quickly deliver safe and @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-04-24--Analysis | Why a Second Wave of Covid-19 Is Already a Worry

Pandemics are caused by new pathogens that the vast majority of humans have no immune protection against .
That ’ s what allows them to become global outbreaks .
Pandemics are uncommon , but influenza is one of the more frequent causes .
What often happens is that a novel variant of flu virus spreads around the world and then recedes , kind of like a tsunami .
A few months later , it comes back and spreads around the world , or large parts of it , again .
Influenza pandemics can be temporarily beaten back by weather , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ northern half of the globe heats up during summer , and vice versa .
The virus may also have infected a huge portion of people in most areas , giving them immunity from re-infection and possibly creating so-called herd immunity , which protects those who haven ’ t been infected by curtailing the virus ’ s circulation .
In the case of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 , countries around the world have invoked movement restrictions on an unprecedented scale and people have voluntarily adopted social distancing measures which together keep people far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t easily spread .
There are a number of possibilities .
In the case of influenza , there ’ s the onset of cool weather , a factor that may affect the coronavirus , too .
Or the pathogen can mutate .
This is another feature of flu , which mutates more or less constantly .
In the fall of 1918 , a second wave of the historic influenza outbreak occurred and caused most of the deaths in the pandemic .
Some researchers believe it was brought about by a mutation that made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s immune systems .
Another important variable is the movement of the virus to populations that haven ’ t been exposed before and don ’ t have immunity .
The 2002-2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Asia never reached the scope of a pandemic .
Though caused by a coronavirus , it wasn ’ t as contagious as the one responsible for Covid-19 .
Its spread was mainly restricted to hospitals and other settings where people came in close contact with the body fluids of infected patients .
Ebola is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There have been periodic outbreaks in Africa , but while the virus is highly contagious in some settings , it hasn ’ t been sufficiently infectious to spread around the world like the coronavirus .
There have been hints from China that a second wave is a risk .
Some areas of the country that were shut down by the virus and then reopened had restrictions reimposed in March because of new cases .
Much of the rest of the world is still struggling to get the current wave under control .
Most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ done so using movement restrictions , which slow the virus ’ s spread but leave many people vulnerable to infection once they begin to venture out again , raising the prospect of second waves .
The World Health Organization has recommended lifting movement restrictions in stages to test the effect of each before moving to greater openness .
In any case , experts say , the key to keeping infections low without locking down everyone is to scale up testing and contact tracing .
Health authorities need to find infected people , isolate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , so they can be tested as well and isolated if necessary .
Eventually , it ’ s possible that enough people will become exposed to the coronavirus that herd immunity will develop and it will stop spreading , or that a vaccine against it will be licensed .


washingtonpost--2020-04-24--Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to return to Downing Street as early as Monday following his bout with Covid-19 , according to the Telegraph newspaper , which also said his office had insisted no final decision has been made .
During his absence , ministers have been reluctant to discuss when they will relax the lockdown first imposed March 23 as economic damage mounts .
Read more here about the week that coronavirus got away from Johnson ’ s government .
It ’ s the final day to a heavy week of earnings and we ’ ll get updates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If there is any consensus to the season so far , it ’ s that no one really knows what to expect this year : at least a quarter of companies in the European benchmark index have given up trying to predict how 2020 will turn out and at least 171 of them have canceled or postponed dividends .
Next week will see reports from some of the region ’ s banks including Deutsche Bank and Barclays .
After a dramatic week that saw prices below zero for the first time in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ losses as attention turned to production cuts in response to the demand hit from the coronavirus pandemic .
To help lower production , U.S. operators have already started to shut old wells and halt new drilling , actions that could reduce output by 20 % while other countries have said they are scaling back production earlier than required to under the OPEC+ deal .
Asian stocks slipped Friday along with U.S. and European futures as investors weighed signs of progress in the fight against the coronavirus versus mounting data showing the severity of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Inc. shares whipsawed for the second time in a week after a summary of a Chinese trial of its Covid-19 drug appeared to show the treatment was a failure .
For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com


washingtonpost--2020-04-23--U.S. Cases Increase 2.5%, Slowest Pace This Month: Virus Update


washingtonpost--2020-04-23--U.S. House Passes Aid Bill; Japan May Extend Break: Virus Update

Tokyo ’ s governor proposed extending the annual Golden Week holiday to 12 days starting as soon as Saturday to keep citizens from going out .
Gilead Sciences Inc. shares sank after a summary of a Chinese trial of its Covid-19 drug appeared to show that it was a failure .
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he ’ s considering the creation of a government lending program for U.S. oil companies , who are looking for federal aid as they cope with a devastating plunge in prices .
He would not say whether the lending program would be housed at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which has created a number of loan facilities for businesses suffering from the economic collapse brought on by the coronavirus outbreak .
The disease took hold after two players from the Roberto Vahlis Academy on Margarita Island returned from the Dominican Republic last month , unaware that they were infected , according to the government .
Margarita , known for beach vacations and kite surfing , now accounts for about a quarter of Venezuela ’ s 298 confirmed cases .
The synopsis , which the company and a scientist working on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the actual results , saw Gilead ’ s shares closed down 4.3 % on Thursday in New York .
The drug , remdesivir , is one of the most closely-watched therapies of the dozens being developed and tested as a potential treatment for Covid-19 patients .
The World Health Organization , which has been helping coordinate the global response to the virus , said it accidentally posted the results on a website that helps track therapies for the disease .
The summary was quickly removed , but details of the post were reported @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the publication Stat .
They showed that the drug wasn ’ t associated with patients getting better more quickly ; and 13.9 % of patients getting the drug died , versus 12.8 % getting standard care .
U.S. cases rose 2.5 % from the day before to 856,209 , the lowest daily increase this month , according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News .
That was lower than Wednesday ’ s rate of 3.1 % and below the average daily increase of 4.1 % over the past week .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ % to 269,756 , according to the Johns Hopkins and Bloomberg News data .
Deaths rose 1.7 % to 19,551 .
Texas reported its third-straight increase in the number of daily cases , with an additional 875 sickened residents , bringing the total to 21,944 , according to the state ’ s health services department .
France is working on a plan to gradually lift restrictions on non-essential travel and reopen the economy starting May 11 .
President Emmanuel Macrontold mayors on Thursday that the end of the lockdown will happen within a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , depending on health conditions and mass transit , according to a government official .
Macron also told them schools would gradually restart .
A New York state-led study seeking to learn how many people have been infected found that 13.9 % of those tested had signs of the virus , in one of the biggest U.S. reviews to date .


washingtonpost--2020-06-14--Analysis | Oil Demand Isn’t Roaring Back Yet

Yet oil prices aren ’ t recovering as the bulls had hoped .
Yes , there is a rebalancing of supply and demand in the offing , but consumption hasn ’ t picked up quite as much as they hoped it would by now .
A rally that briefly took West Texas Intermediate crude above $ 40 a barrel in the first week of June has fizzled out , as the euphoria of exiting lockdown is replaced by the reality of living with this virus .
Around the world , it ’ s become clear that getting back to work @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. , there are now fears a resurgence of Covid-19 infections in some places could force a reversal of reopenings .
And new weekly data show record levels of inventories in U.S. stockpiles .
It wasn ’ t supposed to be this way .
Output cuts were meant to start draining inventories , while the reopening of stores , factories and businesses boosted demand .
Instead , things seem to be going in the opposite direction .
Let ’ s start with a broad view .
The U.S. Energy Information Administration ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ becoming more pessimistic .
Its latest forecast , published earlier this month , shows demand remaining almost 4.5 million barrels a day , or 4.5 % , below last year ’ s level in the fourth quarter .
That ’ s twice the loss it foresaw last month .
More specifically , in the U.S. the recovery in oil demand from the depths of the destruction seen in April is faltering .
Deliveries of all fuels from storage depots remain 20 % below year-earlier levels on a four-week average basis .
The pickup @ @ @ @ @ @ @ returned to work but shunned public transport , has ground to a halt and remains down year-on-year by about 20 % .
Jet fuel is still down by more than 60 % , while the drop in distillate fuel oil demand is getting bigger , not smaller .
Now let ’ s take a look at transport , which combined accounts for 56 % of oil usage worldwide .
There is definitely no sign of a V-shaped recovery in flying , which saw the biggest collapse as borders were closed and planes were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by FlightRadar24 have risen by 54 % from their low-point in mid-April , they remain more than 60 % below the levels seen in early January .
While some airlines in Europe are beginning to reactivate routes , full border openings are still at least a couple of weeks away .
In the U.K. , quarantine requirements for arriving passengers are likely to limit the take-up of available seats .
Private car usage is getting a boost as people seek to maintain their distance from each other .
But it ’ s happening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mobility .
Even as restrictions are eased , many companies are only welcoming a small percentage of their employees back into the office to respect social distancing measures .
Many people who can work from home are continuing to do so .
This translates into a very narrow upturn in driving as shown in near real-time statistics from the Tomtom Traffic Index .
Even in China , where some traffic has not only returned to , but exceeded , pre-pandemic levels , that congestion is limited in both time and space .
Elsewhere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Traffic data for Japan and Taiwan show congestion never eased to the extent it did elsewhere .
Roads in Taipei are almost as busy now as they were last year , while congestion in Tokyo is down by about 40 % .
But roads remain quiet in Kuala Lumpur , Singapore and Manila , where vehicles are only just beginning to return to the streets .
Europe ’ s emergence from lockdown is reflected in the slow uptick in congestion levels on its city streets .
Peak morning commute travel times are still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a year ago in London and Milan , but in early April they had been down by almost 90 % .
A recovery is beginning , but with many people choosing , or being asked by their employers , to continue working from home , the upturn is likely to be slow .
A lack of parking facilities in European cities will probably also hamper a surge in car use like the one seen in China .
The U.S. is further behind still .
In New York and San Francisco , road congestion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 80 % from year-ago levels for a sixth week .
For those hoping that a quick , V-shaped recovery in oil demand would help spur oil prices higher , the data don ’ t appear very encouraging so far .
There is still a long way to go before we get back to anything like normal .


washingtonpost--2020-03-24--Analysis | New York Can’t Wait Until June for Ventilators

Ford expects the first ventilators from its GE partnership — simplified models of what the industrial giant usually makes — to be ready by early June , CEO Jim Hackett told CBS This Morning on Tuesday .
Just hours later , New York Governor Andrew Cuomo held a press conference and warned that the coronavirus is spreading faster in the state than previously anticipated , putting the area on course to hit the apex of cases in as soon as 14 days .
At that point , it will need 140,000 total hospital beds and an additional 30,000 ventilators .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ you can not find them .
Every state is trying to get them , other countries are trying to get them , ” Cuomo said of ventilators .
While the governor said it ’ s admirable that companies such as Ford and General Motors Co. are willing to get into the business , “ it does us no good if they start to create a ventilator in three weeks or four weeks or five weeks.
” Therein lies the problem .
On March 16 , I wrote about how America needed to once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and put the nation ’ s manufacturers to work producing the tools needed to fight the coronavirus .
In the absence of leadership by the Trump administration , manufacturers would have to take it upon themselves to fill the void , I wrote .
In the days since , I ’ ve been genuinely awestruck by the reports of companies taking up the call .
But the truth is , the void is too big for industry to fill on its own .
President Donald Trump has been reluctant to use the 1950s-era @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the power to press U.S. industry into service on matters of national need , preferring to orchestrate contributions on a volunteer basis .
He did invoke it on Tuesday with regard to production of testing kits and masks , but that fails to address a crucial shortage in ventilators .
It ’ s great that companies are willing to help on this front without being explicitly ordered to do so , but you still need some sort of a plan .
Timing is one issue , with Cuomo arguing a more forceful implementation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ manufacturers the startup capital needed to repurpose factories could help speed things along .
Another is that there are many smaller companies who may not have the capacity to make entire ventilators like Ford can , but could make parts or offer services , if only someone would give them some direction and organize them into workable partnerships .
Perhaps the biggest is the question of distribution , as my colleague Joe Nocera has written : Who decides where the ventilators go once they are manufactured ?
Apart from the Ford partnership , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ production since the start of the coronavirus crisis and plans to double it again in the second quarter .
That is incredible and commendable .
But who gets them ?
New York , which has the most cases in the U.S. ?
GE ’ s home state of Massachusetts ?
One of the many other countries around the world where GE does business ?
The government that ’ s willing to pay the most for them ?
I ’ m not trying to cast doubts on GE ’ s good intentions here , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ company to make on its own .
The federal government is sitting on a stockpile of 20,000 ventilators but has been reluctant to deploy all of those to New York , Cuomo said , with the Federal Emergency Management Agency offering a mere 400 .
“ What am I going to do with 400 ventilators when I need 30,000 ?
” he said .
“ You pick the 26,000 people who are going to die because you only sent 400 ventilators.
” One argument made by the New York Times as to why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Defense Production Act more forcefully is because he doesn ’ t want to be blamed for how slowly shortages of protective gear and ventilators are addressed .
Worded a different way , if true , he is shifting responsibility for that to CEOs who are simply trying to help their country in any way they can , and that is unsustainable .


washingtonpost--2020-06-12--Analysis | Volkswagen Feud Threatens a $38 Billion Bet

The tale might offer a useful lesson to Volkswagen AG ’ s Bavarian chief executive officer , Herbert Diess , and the company ’ s board .
Internecine conflict at the top of the world ’ s biggest carmaker risks derailing its 33 billion-euro ( $ 38 billion ) bet on electric vehicles at the worst possible moment , with car sales at their lowest in decades and Tesla Inc. becoming a genuine threat .
Volkswagen needs to be looking outward beyond its domestic concerns , not inward .
The parent company of Audi , Porsche , Lamborghini and Bentley @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as tension between Diess and some members of the firm ’ s supervisory board broke into the open .
At an internal event for more than 3,000 managers last week , the former BMW AG executive accused directors of committing crimes by leaking confidential discussions , Bloomberg News reported .
On Monday , the board responded by stripping him of direct control of the Volkswagen brand — he ’ d been CEO of both Volkswagen AG and its dominant , namesake division .
Diess apologized , and the board issued a lukewarm statement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ support him in his work.
” The contretemps is another ugly distraction from Diess ’ s otherwise largely successful leadership of the German giant .
Since taking the reins in 2018 , he has helped the company move on from the 2015 dieselgate scandal by accelerating a pivot toward electric vehicles , and integrating more closely the company ’ s disparate fiefdoms of 12 brands spanning motorbikes to 16-ton trucks .
The stock has outperformed German rivals BMW and Daimler AG under his leadership .
While Mercedes owner Daimler has issued five profit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has issued one , prompted by the coronavirus pandemic .
Managing the conflicting interests at Volkswagen is an unenviable task .
Its dual-class share structure — a rarity in corporate Germany — means the 75 billion-euro company is essentially family owned , with descendants of automotive engineer Ferdinand Porsche controlling 53 % of the voting shares .
The State of Lower Saxony , where Volkswagen is based , controls 20 % of the votes , and powerful labor representatives have slightly less than half the board seats .
It ’ s a stark @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the inverse problem : a lack of oversight for its brilliant but flawed CEO .
While Elon Musk can unilaterally decide to build a tent to accelerate assembly of Tesla ’ s Model 3 sedan , Diess has to satisfy a panoply of interested parties as he tries to transform his company .
But Diess , who has a history of poorly judged comments , needs to get out of his own way too .
His recent accusation of boardroom criminality followed a staggeringly distasteful assertion to managers last year that “ Ebit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ profit sets you free , ” echoing the “ Arbeit macht frei ” ( “ work sets you free ” ) sign above the gates of Nazi concentration camps .
Volkswagen has changed CEO twice already since 2015 .
It doesn ’ t need another upheaval .
At stake is more than just the interests of the Porsche family and Lower Saxony .
The carmaker employs about 670,000 people , and it ’ s among the biggest employers in countries such as Hungary , the Czech Republic and Portugal .
Its actions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The company ’ s leadership needs to get the transition to electric cars right .
There ’ s more to the world than its corporate headquarters .


washingtonpost--2020-06-11--Analysis | Singapore Won’t Feast on Hong Kong’s Fund Famine

The central bank has a valid objection .
The above chart only shows foreign-currency deposits in domestic banking units ( DBUs ) .
Include deposits in the the Asian currency units ( ACUs ) , a fancy name for a different set of ledgers that the same banks use for their international business , and the fourfold growth turns out to be a 20 % increase , to S $ 781 billion ( $ 564 billion ) .
Not exactly a deluge , though perhaps more than a puddle of rainwater on Singapore ’ s Orchard Road : There are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and not just in Singapore .
Central banks everywhere are flooding lenders with liquidity to ease the pain of the coronavirus pandemic .
Governments are putting money into people ’ s accounts , while cautious firms are stuffing theirs by drawing on previously unused working-capital lines .
It was only in late May that China said that it would impose a national security law in Hong Kong .
April data may not be capturing the gloom about Hong Kong ’ s future .
Still , the immediate challenge for the special administrative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forcing the monetary authority to buy billions of U.S. dollars to prevent the Hong Kong dollar from strengthening beyond 7.75 , the outer boundary of the 7.75-7.85 range in which it is allowed to trade against the greenback .
Money is pouring in because Hong Kong dollar interest rates are higher than U.S. dollar rates , and also because JD.com Inc. , China ’ s No .
2 online retailer , is selling shares in the city in what ’ s likely to be the world ’ s second-biggest initial public offering this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no longer feel welcome in U.S. capital markets won ’ t be Hong Kong ’ s ticket to perennial preeminence .
However , if the territory does bleed deposits , will Singapore want them ?
The two-ledger system , the reason for confusion about capital inflows , has its roots in the rivalry .
In 1968 , when founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew decided to turn his tin- and rubber-exporting port into an international financial center , he had no real advantage over Hong Kong , then a British colony .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ created demand for dollars in Asia , and Singapore grabbed the chance with the help of Dick van Oenen , a Dutch currency trader at Bank of America .
Hong Kong , reluctant to admit new banks , took almost a decade to catch up .
It was hesitant initially to host an offshore finance hub because those , like casinos , are best left to places that don ’ t have much other activity to protect .
Singapore insulated its domestic economy from instability thanks to the different domestic and international ledger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global commerce from their more humdrum local franchise .
For five years now , authorities have been planning to end the divide , and in January parliament approved the merger of the two accounts .
Since regulatory scrutiny of financial intermediaries has gone up in all the major economies from which Singapore hosts its foreign banks , there ’ s little point in continuing with a dual-track system .
Even so , this chart should give the authorities pause : From roughly similar levels in 1991 , deposits in Singapore — across both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — have risen to $ 1 trillion , while Hong Kong ’ s have exploded to $ 1.8 trillion because of its outsize role in securing capital for Chinese firms .
Singapore may have the competence and confidence to ensure that banks can backstop their IOUs , with or without help from their home countries .
But will the regulators be comfortable if the state investment firm Temasek Holdings Pte .
— the largest shareholder of both London-based Standard Chartered Plc and homegrown DBS Group Holdings Ltd.— sees value in combining the two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been doing the rounds for the better part of two decades , though never seriously entertained ?
But size isn ’ t everything .
Deposits come from loans , and too much credit causes “ financialization.
” It ’ s a term economists use to describe situations in which a society sacrifices other priorities — such as manufacturing competitiveness , affordable housing and less leveraged firms — for a mirage of affluence .
Orbigood , a Singaporean exclamation for others getting their comeuppance , is best kept for its rival ’ s cramped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t really want deposits to rush in from Hong Kong .
It might do more harm than good .


washingtonpost--2020-06-12--Analysis | What an Activist Can Teach an Education Behemoth

Cevian announced on Thursday that it has built a 5 % stake in Pearson , becoming the London-based firm ’ s fifth-biggest shareholder .
The Swedish activist is pouncing while Pearson is vulnerable .
The stock has been trading near its lowest levels since 2003 , and the search for a replacement for Fallon , who plans to step down this year , has been delayed by the Covid-19 pandemic .
A successor has yet to be found .
The activist is seizing the opportunity to push for a CEO appointment with a “ clear track record of shareholder value @ @ @ @ @ @ @ appointee .
It ’ s hard to argue with the company ’ s share performance : The stock has lost half its value since Fallon took over in 2013 , massively underperforming the benchmark FTSE 100 Index .
That ’ s even as Fallon sold the Financial Times newspaper , along with stakes in the Economist and publisher Penguin Random House , to focus Pearson on education .
And that ’ s despite his pushing through three rounds of restructuring and investing significantly in new technologies .
Capital expenditure in North America has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million ) over the past five years , yet revenue there has continued to decline .
It has sometimes seemed unclear what Pearson ’ s assortment of businesses — including textbooks , examination centers and online coursework — have in common operationally .
Fallon ’ s response has been to centralize more corporate functions like sales , finance and administration , knitting the disparate units more tightly together .
But that might have made it harder to react quickly to new online learning rivals .
Having to request resources from HQ is inevitably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s own business unit .
Compare this to RELX Plc , the educational publisher formerly known as Reed-Elsevier , which has managed to navigate the digital tides by delegating responsibility to its operating units and keeping central operations lean .
Its stock has almost doubled since 2013 .
Pearson ’ s central costs of 449 million pounds now represent 12 % of sales .
It ’ s unclear whether that overhead has become more bloated than it would be if distributed among the operating units , but it seems a likely vector of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ succeeds in getting the units more autonomy , that could also make the company more vulnerable to attempts to force a breakup — a strategy that Cevian has deployed in the past .
After years of underperformance , investors could be forgiven for getting impatient with Chairman Sidney Taurel and his board .
The directors need to find a successor to Fallon quickly and give her or him all the tools to get the company ’ s hodgepodge of businesses to work well together .
If they don ’ t , Cevian might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best way to realize value from their investment .


washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Mnuchin Says United Complying With Virus Law Despite Layoffs

“ We believe right now that they ’ re in compliance with the program , ” Mnuchin said Tuesday in response to a question during a Senate Banking Committee hearing .
A key goal of the Cares Act is to keep people from losing jobs .
The bill included separate programs to help small- and medium-sized businesses cope with coronavirus-related closures .
Still , more than 36 million people have lost their jobs in two months as a result of social distancing measures and stay-at-home orders .
Mnuchin has warned that economic data will continue to be dire through June @ @ @ @ @ @ @ questions from several lawmakers on how his implementation of the law is directly helping workers .
Senator Sherrod Brown , an Ohio Democrat , asked if businesses accepting federal relief were being required to maintain their payroll levels .
“ I am following what was the exact letter and spirit of the law that we negotiated with you and others on a bipartisan basis , ” Mnuchin said .
The restrictions on layoffs don ’ t apply to companies getting loans through the Fed .
Still , both Treasury and the Fed have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said the agencies should use that power to force companies to keep their employees on the payroll .
“ The law gives Treasury and the Federal Reserve the authority to write rules determining which companies get taxpayer relief and how they can spend that money , ” Warren said to Mnuchin .
The two agencies must “ require , as part of the terms of the loan , that companies be required to keep people in their jobs.
” An updated term sheet the Fed released last month left the door open to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Street loan program .
The Fed said participants “ should make commercially reasonable efforts to maintain its payroll and retain its employees ” while the loan is outstanding .
“ In the Main Street facility we have put in a provision that we expect people to use their best efforts to support jobs , ” Mnuchin said .
“ The airlines had specific requirements , and we are ” following those .
Warren found this to be in violation of the “ spirit ” of the Cares Act : “ You ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to require them to keep jobs.
” A congressional oversight panel is gearing up to ask the Treasury similar questions .
The watchdog panel overseeing Fed and Treasury aid programs said this week it wants to know the impact on “ overall employment ” and the “ financial well-being of the people ” in the U.S .


washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Powell Dodges Senators’ Efforts to Get Him to Take Side on Aid

Powell ’ s reluctance to argue forcefully for more aid suggests a stalemate between Republicans and Democrats over the scale and timing of additional fiscal stimulus will continue .
The prospect of any quick rebound in employment is becoming increasingly dim with tens of millions jobless and no strong treatment or vaccine immediately available to support Americans ’ confidence in returning to work , school and shopping .
The comments by Powell compare with remarks at the end of last month , when he dismissed concerns about ballooning federal debt , saying that “ this is the time to use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” “ It ’ s all ahead of us .
The amount that has gone out so far , in the context of the U.S. economy , is fairly modest , ” Powell said .
Mnuchin was grilled by Democrats on the committee on how his deployment of pandemic rescue aid has done enough to help workers and small- and medium-sized businesses as opposed to big corporations .
Senators from both parties asked the Treasury chief about how he intends to mobilize the $ 500 billion in support that Congress authorized .
Mnuchin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help the economy , pointing to relief in market liquidity and the delivery of hundreds of billions of dollars in disaster relief and forgivable loans to mom and pop companies .
One focus of interest among lawmakers during the hearing was about the strain on state and local governments and potential for additional support .
“ We are continuing to look at ways to accommodate further borrowing , ” Powell said .
Powell also said the central bank is ready to use all the weapons in its arsenal to help the U.S. economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shifts to whether Republicans and Democrats will agree to more fiscal aid .
“ We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy in this challenging time even as we recognize that these actions are only a part of a broader public-sector response , ” Powell said .
Working with the Treasury , the central bank has launched unprecedented support for markets and the economy since mid-March .
It slashed interest rates to near zero and unveiled nine emergency lending programs , supporting everything from corporate to municipal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ access to financing .
The Fed is still trying to launch four of the nine facilities , including one aimed at Main Street that will buy bank loans extended to mid-size businesses .
The facility is one of the riskiest and most challenging programs the Fed has undertaken given the diversity of businesses that are likely to borrow .
“ We expect all of them to be stood up and ready to go by the end of this month , ” Powell said of the remaining programs during questioning at the hearing .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ clock and have been for weeks.
” The House backed an additional $ 3 trillion Democratic economic stimulus bill Friday .
The measure would give cash-strapped states and local governments more than $ 1 trillion while providing most Americans with a new round of $ 1,200 checks .
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said it should be the basis of talks with the GOP-controlled Senate and White House , which have argued for a pause to allow earlier virus-recovery spending to work .
Calls for more stimulus from Democrats contrast sharply with the view @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best way to revive the economy is to end state lockdowns aimed at containing the pandemic .
During Tuesday ’ s hearing , Mnuchin warned of significant harm to the economy if shutdowns are prolonged .
“ There is the risk of permanent damage , ” Mnuchin told lawmakers .
“ And as I ’ ve said before , we ’ re conscious of the health issues and we want to do this in a balanced and safe way.
” For all the support , just about every indicator of the U.S. economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into a sudden stop as households sheltered in place .
Employers cut 20.5 million jobs last month , tripling the unemployment rate to 14.7 % , the highest since the Great Depression .


washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Jamie Dimon Says Virus Is a Wake-Up Call to Address Inequalities

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