washingtonpost--2020-03-24--Analysis | The Dollar Squeeze Is Coming for China Inc.

Globally convulsing markets have put a strain on U.S. dollar funding .
In China , signs of tightness in dollar liquidity are emerging , based on 3-month interbank overnight rates and other indicators .
Banks are trying to beef up dollar cash positions .
Meanwhile , yields on big chunks of Chinese debt have shot to over 15 % as investors unload , increasing the cost of borrowing and refinancing .
Hedge funds and other asset managers that bought up junk-rated Chinese dollar debt are unwinding those positions .
In times like these , investors aren ’ t discriminating .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ don ’ t reprice risk as quickly as equity markets .
Debtors need dollars now .
These companies have typically resorted to raising more debt to refinance the old .
They won ’ t be able to continue like this .
Not only has it gotten prohibitively expensive , it ’ s hard to find buyers at this point .
Take real estate developers .
They make up around 60 % of the outstanding bonds and primarily rely on onshore yuan revenue from advanced payments and deposits on purchases .
With sales down @ @ @ @ @ @ @ swapping it to dollars costs more .
Further , regulations restrict raising debt for refinancing .
This month , developers have around $ 4 billion coming due , with smaller repayments until November , when $ 6.7 billion must be repaid .
That comes as companies across emerging markets are staring at $ 19 trillion in maturities of dollar and local currency loans and bonds over the course of 2020 .
Even with the People ’ s Bank of China willing to provide various lifelines , private enterprises ’ funding costs remain elevated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markets to repay dollar obligations isn ’ t easy or cheap .
Onshore , state-backed borrowers are pushing out smaller ones and flooding the new issuance space.Defaults have been ticking up as Beijing goes into forbearance mode .
Estimates from the Institute of International Finance suggest that companies with majority state ownership comprise over 35 % of non-financial firms ’ debt in China .
Add in those with any government backing , and it ’ s more than 80 % .
Will Beijing step in for all ?
Unlikely , but it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ significant chunk .
While onshore investors are agreeing to extend payment terms and to exchange debt for equity , holders of foreign bonds are unlikely to be so forgiving.Tapping Chinese banks for funds isn ’ t straightforward .
They don ’ t have dollars to hand out en masse .
Of the $ 788 billion of total foreign currency deposits held by financial institutions , $ 377 billion are corporate deposits .
That ’ s down from a peak two years ago .
Banks have more than $ 800 billion of foreign currency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the lending for China ’ s Belt and Road Initiative , the virus-induced economic shock and rising bad debts mean banks will have to be selective .
Investors usually find comfort in the PBOC ’ s war chest of $ 3.1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves .
Sure , it could — and will — step in to ease the dollar-funding pressure on banks .
But the moment the lender of last resort starts tapping reserves , sentiment will be hit , and then it ’ s a question of resilience.In addition , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , agency bonds and the like .
Only about $ 18 billion , or 0.5 % , are in cash deposits , mostly at commercial banks , according to HSBC Holdings Plc analysts .
Selling those as the broader credit market tanks would only drive more market jitters .
Unlike many central banks , China ’ s doesn ’ t have a swap line with the U.S. Federal Reserve .
So how far will the central bank go ?
There are other pressure points .
The dollar shortage will hit trade credit , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and underlying businesses .
In periods of dollar strength and shortage , this leads to outflows as overseas financing to buy Chinese goods dries up .
As Rhodium Group ’ s Logan Wright says , “ In the 2008 crisis , this was very severe as trade-credit liabilities were paid down and credit lines were cut.
” This time , he says , a dollar shortage in this type of credit would probably lead to “ a sharper-than-expected decline in China ’ s exports ” over the next few months .
At some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in balance sheets and coming back is hard .
The longer these dislocations last , the worse they get .


washingtonpost--2020-03-25--Analysis | Bored, Isolated Citizens Are a Win for Facebook

The hitch is that when brands hit a rough patch , advertising budgets are the first things they cut .
Broadcasters are already feeling the impact : NBC parent Comcast Inc. has warned of the negative effects on its business , while Britain ’ s ITV Plc .
abandoned its 2020 revenue outlook and dividend as advertisers cut spending .
Twitter Inc. has also scrapped its earnings outlook for the first quarter .
So Facebook ’ s announcement on Tuesday that its business was being “ adversely affected ” because of a “ weakening in our ads business ” shouldn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surprise .
Significantly , however , the Menlo Park , California-based company stopped short of altering its ( admittedly rather vague ) existing first-quarter guidance , which anticipates revenue growth that will “ decelerate by low to mid-single digit percentage points ” compared with the end of 2019 .
For the Silicon Valley companies , the difficulties are relative .
Sure , they might be enduring some bumps , but their problems aren ’ t as severe as those of the TV industry — the advertising market overall will still expand this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. ads market to grow 7 % , albeit down from an earlier estimate of 11 % .
If previous years are any guide , Facebook and Google will hoover up most of that growth .
Shutdowns also seem to be forming new habits that benefit the social media platforms .
More time at home seems to mean more time in front of a screen .
I ’ ve posted more on Instagram in the past week than in the previous two months .
Facebook itself has revealed a significant jump in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries most affected by the virus ; a doubling of voice and video calling on WhatsApp and Messenger ; in Italy , people are spending 70 % more time across Facebook ’ s products .
People seem to be setting aside the justifiable concerns about the firm ’ s data practices , which have tempered engagement in recent quarters .
Efforts to ensure that accurate messaging from governments and health authorities secures prominent placement on its platforms may be securing Facebook some true good will .
If even a fraction of the new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , then a few quarters of slower advertising growth won ’ t be a concern for Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg — it ’ s unlikely even that he ’ ll have to touch the firm ’ s $ 44 billion net cash position .
He has managed consistently to increase average revenue per user because Facebook has significant power to increase the cost of ads , as does Google .
The moment the advertising market returns — and it surely will , whether in three , nine or 12 months— he could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

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washingtonpost--2020-03-25--Analysis | Nike’s Workout App Beats the Coronavirus Blues

Nike estimates that China has now progressed through its recovery phase and is returning to normal , with the maker of the Air Jordan and Flyknit sneakers expecting sales growth to come roaring back in early 2021 .
Clearly , Europe and much of the U.S. is still in the containment phase .
Based on the experiences in China , Japan and South Korea , this could last five to six weeks , Nike said .
The retailer weathered the China store closures far better than expected — with sales in China down 4 % excluding currency movements in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the face of the coronavirus offers some interesting lessons for other retail brands in how to cope with an extended shutdown .
While stores were closed , Nike fired up online operations effectively .
It also activated other digital ways of connecting with customers , such as home fitness apps offered for free .
It worked .
Weekly active users rose 80 % in China over the course of the third quarter , as people were confined to their homes .
That in turn drove them to purchase new workout gear , boosting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It also helps that fitness equipment is still in demand when people are stuck at home .
The same can ’ t be said for many products , such as glam dresses .
As the number of Covid-19 cases spreads in other markets , it ’ s of course not a given that every company can soldier on as seemingly seamlessly as Nike , which has been doing well for a long time .
The company generated a better-than-expected $ 10.1 billion of revenue in the third quarter , even with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong balance sheet and is highly cash generative .
Even so , inventories rose 7 % in the third quarter to $ 5.8 billion , partially reflecting the drop-off in demand from China .
Retailers across the board will be scrambling with how to deal with a surfeit of stock .
Nike ’ s success has enabled it to invest heavily in its digital offering .
Its fitness apps , which have come into their own in this crisis , are a case in point .
Not all groups have been — or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proactive .
So it ’ s fair to expect that the companies with strong balance sheets , well-known brands and developed digital offerings should be able to navigate the crisis .
Spain ’ s Inditex SA , owner of the Zara chain , fits the bill here .
By contrast , those companies that were already struggling , or burdened with large borrowings , will be particularly challenged by the first phase of containment .
As I have noted , the U.S. department stores look particularly susceptible to shuttered stores and shell-shocked shoppers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that Neiman Marcus Group Inc. , the luxury retailer that has been struggling to ease its $ 4.3 billion debt load , was mulling options that could include a bankruptcy filing .
And another Bloomberg report said J .
Crew Group Inc. is suspending the initial public offering of Madewell , its most popular brand , a move necessary to cut its borrowings .
Elsewhere , taking into account store leases , as well as other forms of financial obligations and upcoming debt maturities , analysts at Morgan Stanley have identified companies including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Inc. , The Gap Inc. and Michael Kors owner Capri Holdings Ltd. as having particularly high levels of leverage , making them potentially less resilient in the current downturn .
So while Nike can just do it , some laggards may truly struggle to get through this crisis .


washingtonpost--2020-03-31--Getting the Last Mile Right to Prevent Moral Hazard

Is putting finance on ice the right strategy , especially in emerging economies ?
Agustin Carstens , general manager for the Bank for International Settlements , is advising central banks to follow a different approach : Get the last mile right .
Make funding available ; ensure it reaches distressed businesses and individuals ; use monetary authority balance sheets to do so , but with governments guaranteeing credit risks .
But first , some practical issues .
One difficulty is that if a payment holiday is left to banks ’ discretion ( as it has been in India ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to grant it to as few customers as possible without inviting a backlash .
Another is that a timeout can ’ t be efficiently employed when the funds for lending come not just from banks but also from investors .
Take India ’ s microlenders .
The $ 28 billion industry would be unable to collect anything much from the self-employed whose cash flows have dried up .
Telling financiers they don ’ t have to provide for delinquencies sounds like a big relief when workers are fleeing cities to return to villages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of lives and livelihoods since the 1947 partition of the subcontinent .
But many of the loans that stop earning cash have been packaged and sold .
Mutual funds and others holding a piece of the bundle aren ’ t covered by the moratorium , which applies only to to lending transactions and not investing decisions .
Investors would demand to be paid .
Asset-backed securities , where the underlying loan is a fleet of commercial vehicles or credit to small enterprises , may be able to cover payouts from the cash collateral @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , “ but this could be insufficient in the event of prolonged loan collection disruptions , ” Moody ’ s Investors Service said Monday .
As the structured obligations default , nobody will give the originating lenders new money to rebuild their broken businesses .
They ’ ll sink .
Many bank borrowers will still struggle to repay after three months , or six — the stopped time will mean more or bigger installments later .
The Reserve Bank of India isn ’ t asking lenders to forgo any of the net present @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But as politicians get involved , the moratoriums may turn into waivers .
Institutions like credit bureaus , meant to instill repayment discipline in normal times , will get overwhelmed .
That ’ s the moral hazard problem .
Citigroup Inc. analysts have asked the same question about Malaysian banks : What happens in October if individuals or businesses still can ’ t service their loans ?
“ Will there be a massive spike in nonperforming loans by year end ?
” Let ’ s face it .
No monetary authority is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goal of the Federal Reserve and every other central bank is to ameliorate pain for borrowers while keeping the financial system alive so that it can support a recovery .
Homeowners in the U.S. have been given protection from late fees and foreclosures for 60 days , provided there ’ s a Fannie Mae , Freddie Mac , Department of Agriculture or Federal Housing Administration backing for the mortgage .
There ’ s plenty that countries like India can do differently .
The Reserve Bank of India cut its benchmark borrowing rate Friday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It slashed the banks ’ cash reserve requirements and also promised lenders three years of cheap funding if they buy investment-grade corporate bonds and commercial paper .
These are helpful measures , though cheap interest costs and $ 50 billion in liquidity don ’ t cover the last mile : borrowers whose dwindling cash flows have become much more uncertain .
The BIS is right to ask central banks to focus on supply chains .
Hero MotoCorp Ltd. , India ’ s largest two-wheeler maker , has invoked force majeure to delay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has reported .
Before parts makers magnify the crunch , the Modi government should consider guaranteeing vendor debt backed by receivables from highly rated companies .
Taking a leaf from Carstens , let the sovereign stand behind all fresh borrowing of firms and financiers equal to the taxes paid by them last year .
The central bank can scoop up bundles of these obligations , encouraging more issuance and investment .
Eventually , the government may have to make good on some credit losses .
To the extent the RBI aggressively buys the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from one pocket to another .
At a time when an increase in fiscal deficit or debt should be the last worry , pumping more funds to people may be the better way .
Putting finance on ice will only store up trouble .


washingtonpost--2020-03-31--Analysis | Will Facebook and Amazon Need Quarantining After Covid-19?

What the current crisis has emphasized is how much of what the tech industry ’ s billionaire-run corporations provide resemble essential public , or quasi-public , goods and services .
As the virus has shut schools , libraries and public parks in some cities , those spaces have moved online .
Information , education , and health care in these times are overwhelmingly reliant on the Internet — and by extension dependent on the FAANG firms ( and Microsoft Corp. ) , which as of last year accounted for more than 40 % of all traffic .
It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put back in the bottle .
Even once countries lift lockdowns , Big Tech will retain its power.Which is why , when we emerge from self-isolation to rebuild the post-Covid-19 society , we can ’ t just return to the earlier status quo .
The virus has already prompted governments across the world to re-think where the fire hose of financial stimulus should be aimed in an emergency , with trillions in aid going to support workers , hospitals and the unemployed , not just big business .
A similar re-think is due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re going to provide essential public goods , they need to be held to a higher standard .
If social media firms are our sidewalks and parks , they should be kept clean — virtually speaking — of misinformation and bad actors .
If e-commerce platforms are delivering vital medical equipment for the authorities , they shouldn ’ t traffic in fakes or quack cures .
If online marketplaces are infrastructure for small firms and gig workers , they must be run fairly .
And if collecting and processing our personal data helps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefits should accrue to the public by ensuring that what ’ s being collected , and how it ’ s handled , isn ’ t harmful .
Oceans of data generated by what Stephen Roberts of the London School of Economics calls the “ digital turn ” of health surveillance will require new rules and explicit terms of engagement to limit abuse.The message is starting to get through to the companies themselves , which have tended to drag their feet in the past .
Facebook Inc. is taking down harmful misinformation related to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public health authorities .
Amazon has banned more than one million products that falsely promised to cure the coronavirus .
Google is banning promotional ads for medical masks so they aren ’ t hoarded by panic-buyers .
A new Covid-19 data partnership between Britain ’ s National Health Service and tech firms , including Google and Palantir Technologies Inc. , has explicitly promised to abide by EU data-privacy principles and destroy its data store after the pandemic .
It will take regulatory pressure to make sure this isn ’ t all just for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the prodding of watchdogs , Big Tech will probably find itself in less political hot water in the future , and justifiably so .
The current pandemic has focused our minds on the common good and decreased polarization in several countries — in the U.S. , for example , Republicans ’ and Democrats ’ views toward coronavirus concerns are gradually converging .
If online platforms that have historically tended toward some toxic behaviors can themselves undergo a similar refresh , it will be one step in the right direction.If there is the risk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , however , it ’ s that we don ’ t know what the long-term effects will be of Big Tech making peace with Big Brother — namely , a state that has also expanded its emergency powers , surveillance capabilities and size during the crisis .
The mix could prove toxic in the long run , even if for now , it ’ s helping the common good .
We ’ ll have to keep our eyes open .


washingtonpost--2020-03-31--Analysis | Warren Buffett Can Hunt Elephants From Home

Buffett ’ s age — he ’ ll turn 90 in August — puts him among those most at risk of severe complications from the virus .
( He was also treated for early-stage prostate cancer in 2012 . )
It may be that he ’ s avoiding in-person interviews for safety reasons , as he should .
Nobody wants to be the one who gave the world ’ s most celebrated businessman and philanthropist Covid-19 and set in motion the most momentous CEO transition of our time .
Still , with so much panic and prognosticating about the damage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , investors could use Buffett ’ s habitual reminder of his unwavering belief in American prosperity .
In 2008 , amid the last recession , and again in 2010 , Buffett signed off both his annual letters to shareholders saying that he and Charlie Munger — his longtime business partner and the 96-year-old vice chairman of Berkshire — were “ lucky beyond our dreams ” in part for being born in the U.S. Berkshire ’ s own investments are like a cross-section of the U.S. economy , with large stakes in airlines , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consumer goods — even tech giants Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. About $ 70 billion of value has been erased from its stock portfolio since mid-February ( though we don ’ t yet know what Buffett bought and sold during the first quarter ) .
The conglomerate also has outright ownership of one of the nation ’ s most expansive freight railway systems and a giant utility network , as well as businesses that sell everything from furniture and modular homes , to airplane-engine parts and various types of insurance .
Shares of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ headed for their worst year — like many other stocks — since 2008 .
“ If you stick around long enough you ’ ll see everything in markets , and it may have taken me to 89 years of age to throw this one into the experience , ” a still chipper Buffett said on Yahoo Finance during his last televised interview .
That was March 10 , before the virus situation became so dire that states stretching from California to Massachusetts began issuing stay-at-home orders to buy time for hospitals running out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Three days later , Buffett announced he was canceling the festivities associated with Berkshire ’ s annual meeting to be held in Omaha in May .
No investors are allowed to attend ( they ’ ll have to stream it online ) .
That means no shopping for See ’ s Candies , no posing with Buffett cardboard cut-outs , no running in the Brooks 5K and no sightings of the man himself for the tens of thousands of fans who show up each year wondering if it ’ s their last chance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen it all , though , which for him diminishes the frightful nature of events that to the rest of us seem so unprecedented in their gravity .
When the Black Monday crash hit in October 1987 , Buffett was already 57 years old .
During World War II , when the news headlines couldn ’ t have been worse , he bought his first shares of stock as a kid — dumping them only four months later .
At the 2018 Berkshire shareholder meeting , Buffett recounted the lesson he learned from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ version : Imagine yourself back on March 11 , 1942 .
… I ’ d like you to imagine that at that time you had invested $ 10,000 … to hold a piece of American business and never look at another stock quote .
… You ’ d have $ 51 million [ now ] and you wouldn ’ t have had to do anything .
… All you had to do was figure that America was going to do well over time , that we would overcome the current difficulties .
… @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that we have operated in this country with the greatest tailwind at our back .
In some ways , this is the market he ’ s been waiting for — a chance to finally scoop up durable , if temporarily beaten down , businesses on the cheap and put Berkshire ’ s $ 128 billion pile of cash to work .
Likewise , private equity firms will be on the prowl , too .
Financial buyers , including Berkshire , are already eyeing vulnerable targets in the travel , lodging and entertainment industries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , citing unnamed sources .
Here are others that fit the mold of a Berkshire takeover target , based on criteria Buffett has spelled out in the past : In recent years there were too many competing acquirers willing to pay prices Buffett thought were absurd .
Now , many are looking to conserve capital ; others receiving assistance from the federal stimulus package may be more limited in their financial maneuvers .
So where President Donald Trump opened a window to dealmaking with this more lax antitrust regulation , the virus has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ already down 24 % globally this year , while in the U.S. it ’ s retreated 31 % .
The S & P 500 index now has a price-to-earnings ratio of 17 , compared with more than 22 in February .
“ It would be more fun if the phone would ring , ” Buffett said in 2017 at the start of his M & A dry spell .
It ’ s sure to be ringing now as large corporations seek cash and the glow of the Buffett halo .
Banks are quietly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ credit lines , according to a Bloomberg News report Monday .
Berkshire played the role of a bank last year , providing $ 10 billion of financing to Occidental Petroleum Corp. in return for high-yielding preferred stock .
As my colleague Liam Denning has noted , even though the oil crash recently forced Oxy to slash its regular dividend , Berkshire still receives its fat check .
Though it may be no mystery how Buffett views America ’ s ability to get through this latest crisis , it ’ s anyone ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billions in it .
Whatever the case , he should do his elephant hunting from home .


washingtonpost--2020-03-31--Analysis | Energy Jobs Could Be Greener After Coronavirus

Oil and gas producers were trimming the ranks even before disaster struck ( see this ) .
Now Rystad Energy , a consultancy , estimates perhaps 30 % of oilfield services workers could be let go by the end of the year .
At the same time , it expects U.S. oil and gas production to drop about 8 % by then .
That outcome would accelerate productivity gains that kicked in after the last crash .
On BLS numbers , oil and gas extraction and support payrolls peaked in September 2014 at almost 540,000 before shedding about a third @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , payrolls never got much above 420,000 — yet oil and gas production soared .
One crude indicator I track is an estimate of how much industry revenue goes on payroll .
( 1 ) This is less about the absolute percentage ; more the relative level and direction .
In the last crash , the burden soared to about 20 % of “ revenue , ” indicating big job cuts were inevitable .
In January , it was running around 10 % , where it ’ s been more or less since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bottomed out .
But commodity prices were a lot higher two months ago .
Plug in today ’ s and we would be back to the untenable levels of four years ago .
Catnip for consultants , perhaps , but not for politicians .
Even before Covid-19 showed up or Saudi Arabia and Russia started a price war , the U.S. oil and gas business was losing easy access to capital markets .
Investors were , in effect , demanding rationalization , which is now happening at an apocalyptic pace .
When the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ industry will face a world in which capital markets remain scarred ( and still worried about climate change ) , inventories have ballooned and the previously reliable OPEC+ put can ’ t be taken for granted .
Remaining competitive precludes a big payroll rebound .
Yet this will be happening even as the economic and political imperative is putting Americans back to work .
With various secondary stimulus proposals being discussed , the fight is on for which bits of the energy sector will benefit .
Jobs will be a potent weapon in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy after the financial crisis , then-President Barack Obama , no buddy of the fossil-fuel industry , was nonetheless “ transformed from critic to reluctant ally ” as the shale boom added hundreds of thousands of jobs , as ClearView Energy Partners pointed out in a recent report .
But that boom sowed the seeds of shale ’ s financial downfall ; it can ’ t repeat that .
Moreover , even the oil and gas industry — bits of it anyway — now accepts climate change is happening .
As I wrote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government aid , they may think otherwise if greener politicians take the reins .
One of the hallmarks of the Green New Deal proposals floated a year ago was how they linked environmental policy with broader populist themes like job creation and investment in public infrastructure .
That approach is tailor-made for a scenario of large-scale government intervention focused on getting people back to work , especially given the makeup of the energy-related labor force .
The National Association of State Energy Officials and the Energy Futures Initiative , a clean-energy think tank @ @ @ @ @ @ @ across the U.S. energy sector .
This puts fossil-fuel employment — including extraction , transportation , processing and power generation — at almost 1.7 million in 2019 .
The electricity sector , ex the bits related to fossil fuels , isn ’ t far behind at almost 1.6 million .
Within these totals , though , there are some striking details .
A third of the fossil-fuel workforce , or about 550,000 , is engaged in extraction and therefore exposed to sustained pressure on headcount .
Coal , in structural decline , employs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
There ’ s simply a lot of systemic drag in the fossil-fuel cohort .
The one area with better growth prospects is natural gas , and that ’ s mostly because more than half of those workers engage in transporting the stuff or using it to run power plants , taking share from coal and providing a lower-carbon narrative for oil producers .
There ’ s a reason why the American Petroleum Institute now styles itself as representing the “ natural gas and oil industry , ” a formulation about as intuitive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and salt .
On the non-fossil electricity side , about 40 % of employees , some 656,000 , work on the grid .
Meanwhile , wind and solar power ’ s ranks , along with their close counterparts in battery storage and smart/micro-grids , now add up to almost half a million ( 3 ) ; not far off the entire workforce engaged in fossil-fuel extraction .
More importantly , one-in-three non-fossil electricity jobs relate to construction — one-in-two for solar , wind , batteries and smart/micro-grids — versus just 13 % for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point when stimulus is being debated .
While the economics of extraction are both geographically concentrated and dependent on limiting headcount , electrification and renewables expansion demand more workers for construction roles deployable anywhere .
In this effort , they should have a couple of natural allies .
Utilities employ a quarter of the non-fossil energy workforce as opposed to 13 % for fossil fuels ( mostly natural gas ) .
With their political power at the state level , and financially induced love of construction , utilities could be useful friends in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might have to grit their teeth on this ) .
Meanwhile , beyond direct energy jobs , energy efficiency-related roles employ another 2.4 million Americans .
They are ostensibly agnostic about the source of the energy .
In practice , though , 56 % of energy efficiency jobs relate to construction , with building upgrades a big growth area , making that cohort a more natural ally for GND-ers .
In broad terms , one side of the energy industry busies itself primarily with digging stuff out of the ground while the other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ground .
If one result of Covid-19 is that America finally gets around to infrastructure week , then the latter should enjoy a working advantage .
( 2 ) Assumes a 30 % cut in oil and gas extraction and support workers in December , year over year .
Production : 11.7 million barrels a day of crude oil , 4.6 million barrels a day of other liquids and 87 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas .
Prices : $ 40 per barrel of crude oil , $ 0.4 per @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per million BTU of natural gas .
Assumes average hours per week and wages per hour flat with January 2020 figures .


washingtonpost--2020-03-31--Analysis | Even Food Delivery Is Getting Hit in Virus Siege

Bookings , which account for around 23 % of revenue , took the biggest hit .
That was predictable .
Consumers aren ’ t keen to take a seat at a restaurant or a night at a hotel amid a deadly disease outbreak , and widespread travel curbs meant moving around China wasn ’ t an option .
Food was more of a surprise .
Two months ago amid the Lunar New Year break , I theorized that such deliveries — at 56 % of Meituan ’ s revenue — might bounce back quickly as customers opted to stay in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wrong .
Thousands of vendors on Meituan ’ s platform were forced to close either voluntarily or by mandate , and thus couldn ’ t provide meals .
Those who did stay open were often met with fear and complications on the demand side .
Many customers had concerns not only over the safety of meals coming from restaurants , but the drivers who delivered them .
Those still willing to order online were met with layers of challenges as local governments , neighborhoods and buildings exercised strict controls over who could come @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bottleneck for drivers ; Meituan noted plenty of capacity on hand .
Three weeks ago , Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. said that its own courier and food delivery services , Cainiao and ele.me , were back to full staffing .
But the food business was still down because many restaurants remained closed .
An upside has been grocery delivery .
Meituan ’ s two services , self-operated and marketplace , have seen strong growth during the crisis , a trend that echoes what Alibaba experienced with its Freshippo service .
In many cities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not to step out to shop .
They ’ re apparently less afraid of groceries brought to their door than fresh-cooked meals .
Even as China returns to a certain level of normalcy , food delivery may struggle for another few months .
Most companies are maintaining degrees of isolation , such as working from home or rotating shifts .
Taking lunches to places of business is normally an important part of the consumption scenario .
As investors start to ponder the outlook for Delivery Hero SE , Just Eat Takeaway , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ well to look at how their China peers have fared during the virus battle .
Collectively , these companies get most of their revenue from Western markets that are now imposing lockdowns to battle the pandemic .
They ’ re implementing contact-free and non-cash deliveries to make customers feel safe .
That may not be enough .
While it ’ s true that people still have to eat , China ’ s experience shows that this doesn ’ t mean consumers will necessarily order delivery or that restaurants can supply them .


washingtonpost--2020-03-31--Analysis | Trump’s Energy Dominance Gives Way to Incoherence

Hence , this week ’ s spectacle of Trump calling on Russian President Vladimir Putin to ease up on his oil price war with Saudi Arabia .
Meanwhile , Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Parsley Energy Inc. have written to the Texas Railroad Commission seeking an OPEC-style coordinated cut in oil production in order to preserve “ U.S .
energy independence , ” which they say was a result of “ private enterprise and innovation.
” There ’ s much to unpack there , but it ’ s crucial to take a moment to acknowledge one other development this week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to gut the vehicle fuel-economy targets set by the previous administration .
Allow me to summarize : America is now so energy dominant that its president seeks favors from an adversary to help bail out domestic oil producers , while simultaneously rolling back policies that would reduce U.S. dependence on oil .
Think about another oil shock , the one in 1973 that scarred the baby boomers and sparked America ’ s independence fetish in the first place .
That year , oil demand in the OECD countries outstripped their own supply by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A decade later , that gap was just under 18 million a day .
Where did those 8.9 million barrels a day go ?
Half of it was increased production as regions like the North Sea and Alaska really got going .
But the other half was reduced demand ; partly a function of recession but , more structurally , a concerted effort to stop using oil in power plants and make do with more efficient vehicles .
Given the call to the Kremlin this week , let ’ s add a geopolitical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. survived and prospered after Saudi Arabia , among others , effectively turned off the oil taps in the 1970s .
The following decade , the Soviet Union collapsed partly because it couldn ’ t handle Saudi Arabia opening the oil taps .
The U.S. did well because it used its “ private enterprise and innovation ” — to borrow Pioneer ’ s and Parsley ’ s phrase — to diversify its energy options .
The Soviet Union , never particularly famous for those attributes , remained addicted to oil , albeit as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ price drop for what it was pushing .
The frackers seeking political help are correct in observing that Covid-19 is an “ extraordinary , unforeseeable crisis.
” But just as Trump tries to give the coronavirus a Chinese passport to gloss over his administration ’ s shortcomings , the E & P industry seeks to blame its predicament entirely on external forces .
Only last week , Scott Sheffield , Pioneer ’ s CEO , said in an interview with CNBC that the crash would leave only about 10 publicly traded U.S. oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of “ ghosts and zombies ” carrying too much debt .
That somehow didn ’ t make it into his letter on Monday , but it rather hints at an underlying problem in this business all of its own making .
Here ’ s a stab at a new approach .
First , admit that the Covid-19 demand shock won ’ t be offset by a coordinated supply cut even if you could arrange it .
A supply cut is coming anyway as storage space fills and prices crater .
It will be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the workers and communities affected most by this ( not highly paid CEOs ) .
Second , recognize that the supposed leverage over foreign powers provided by fracking has evaporated along with the industry ’ s access to the high-yield bond market .
The industry will survive , but it will have to restructure and cool its jets .
Finally , rather than debase America by horse-trading for an extra $ 5 on the price of oil ( sorry , drivers , there are Texas ’ electoral college votes to think about ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reduce dependence on oil in the first place ?
Then the country might be able to act with a bit more ( what ’ s the word ? )
independence .
Step one on that front : Don ’ t launch a war on efficiency standards that makes even some car manufacturers uneasy .
Suggested slogan ?
“ Energy intelligence ” has a nice , if somewhat less macho , ring to it .
Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy , mining and commodities .
He previously was editor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times ’ Lex column .
He was also an investment banker .


washingtonpost--2020-03-31--Analysis | Getting the Last Mile Right to Prevent Moral Hazard


washingtonpost--2020-04-16--Analysis | Paul Singer Got Coronavirus Right But May Still Lose

Travelport ’ s revenues are now in free fall because airlines have grounded most of their fleets and the travel agents that use its computer-reservation systems to book flights and hotels barely have any customers .
Travelport ’ s parent company has been downgraded by the major rating agencies and some $ 3.3 billion in so-called leveraged loans that Elliott used to fund the purchase are quoted at distressed levels .
Based in the U.K. , Travelport operates one of three dominant global distribution systems for travel bookings .
While they aren ’ t household names , these digital platforms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ airlines and hotels to market their wares to online and high-street travel agents , as well as corporate travel departments .
( 1 ) Half the world ’ s air bookings are made directly with airlines ’ call centers or on their websites ; the vast majority of the rest are processed by the GDS .
( 3 ) The GDS operators skim off a small fee from the airlines for each booking .
These cash flows , plus the industry ’ s oligopolistic structure , are catnip for the buyout crowd — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Corp. , now publicly listed , were also owned by private equity at one point .
Such is the industry ’ s concentration that the U.K. ’ s Competition and Markets Authority last week blocked Sabre ’ s takeover of travel-software peer Farelogix Inc .
The drastic measures that these two have taken to shore up their finances suggest the outlook for Elliott ’ s acquisition — part of the hedge fund ’ s recent push into private equity — is far from rosy .
Amadeus has scrapped its dividend , boosted credit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 1.6 billion ) via a share issue and convertible bond offering to ensure it has sufficient cash on hand to meet upcoming debt maturities .
The Madrid-based company ’ s ease in raising capital ( it issued shares at only a modest discount ) doubtless had something to do with its comparatively modest borrowings : net debt was 1.2 times a measure of cash earnings at the end of December .
The shares have declined 37 % so far this year , which isn ’ t too bad under the circumstances .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt of 3.1 times Ebitda at the end of last year .
The shares have since lost almost three-quarters of their value .
This week the company had to offer bond investors a 9.25 % coupon to persuade them to purchase $ 775 million in new debt ; Sabre ’ s $ 2.6 billion pile of goodwill is being reviewed for possible impairment and it warned bad debts could rise .
Gross leverage at Travelport , the smallest of the GDS providers , is even higher at around 7 times Ebitda , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which noted the company must devote $ 250 million annually just to servicing its borrowings .
Proceeds from January ’ s $ 1.7 billion agreed sale of Travelport ’ s eNett payments business should boost liquidity later this year , providing the deal closes as planned .
( 5 ) Even so , Travelport ’ s $ 2.8 billion senior secured first-lien term loan , due in 2026 , is marked at about 60 cents on the dollar , having dipped below 50 in mid-March .
Even if airline customers and travel-agent partners @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months , there will be pressure on the GDS providers to lower the fees they charge .
The airlines ’ financial struggles may encourage some of them to avoid ticket distribution fees altogether by steering more customer bookings to their own websites — a trend that preceded the coronavirus .
While the current crisis is unprecedented , Elliott did have some forewarning that Travelport might not be a straightforward investment .
On the eve of the last recession , private equity giant Blackstone Group Inc. acquired Travelport for $ 4.3 billion .
Amid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Travelport reported a string of annual losses and at one point flirted with bankruptcy .
Blackstone ’ s equity was later heavily diluted in a recapitalization by debt holders .
( 4 ) The company finally went public in 2014 , eight years after Blackstone first invested .
History doesn ’ t repeat itself , but the annals of private equity sometimes rhyme .


washingtonpost--2020-04-16--Analysis | Meticulous and Orderly, Germany Can Handle a Pandemic

That ’ s because this pandemic won ’ t end with a made-for-television big bang .
It ’ ll be managed patiently into remission , for a long time and through many setbacks , with sobriety , incrementalism and nuance .
And , at the risk of stereotyping , these just happen to be traits characteristic of modern Germany generally , and Merkel in particular .
For Germany , doing “ well ” — in this pandemic as in most things — doesn ’ t mean being a pioneer .
It wasn ’ t the first to contain an initial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that honor goes to Taiwan or South Korea .
Nor is it the first to relax the current lockdown ; that role is being played by neighboring Denmark , Austria and the Czech Republic , whereas Germany just extended its school closures to May 3 .
Germany did , for a while , have one of the world ’ s lowest fatality rates .
But even that number , currently 2.6 % , has been rising , apparently reverting to the global mean .
What seems like a deterioration , however , also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much right in this crisis .
The death rate was low at the start because the country was unusually fast in rolling out widespread testing .
As a result , it captured the many infections in the asymptomatic and younger population , while other countries were still mainly testing the old and overtly sick .
More confirmed cases expanded the denominator , and thus reduced the mortality rate .
Germany also benefited from its federal structure , and in particular the decentralized architecture of its health care system .
In that sense , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ France , and of federal but dysfunctional America .
In January , a Berlin lab developed the first test kits , then promptly shared them with 84 other labs in Germany ’ s 16 federal states , which passed them on to local hospitals and clinics .
Now everybody ’ s ramping up testing .
By reacting to the outbreak early , Germany also bought itself time to build on other “ preexisting ” strengths .
Even before Covid-19 struck , it had far more beds in intensive care units than most other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more .
So Germany still has spare capacity : About 10,000 of the more than 22,000 beds are free .
This lets its hospitals save the lives of more of the patients coming in , and even take some from France and Italy .
Yet another preexisting advantage , on the socioeconomic side , is a century-old labor law that prevents abrupt layoffs and lets employees get paid even when their work temporarily dries up .
Called Kurzarbeit ( literally “ short work ” ) , the program gets companies to keep paying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ salaries even when there ’ s nothing to do , and the government reimburses them .
More than 650,000 firms have signed up already , representing millions of employees , from bakers and cleaners to engineers .
They and their families can stay financially resilient during the lockdown , and employees will be able to quickly return to work when the virus fades .
While much of this medical and social infrastructure was in place before the crisis , a big question was how a federal republic led by a lame-duck chancellor would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Donald Trump , Merkel ’ s opposite in temperament , seems consumed by an ego clash between the White House and several state governors .
Something similar could have happened in Germany .
But there ’ s no clash worth speaking of .
The German equivalents of virus-fighting U.S. governors such as New York ’ s Andrew Cuomo and California ’ s Gavin Newsom are Bavaria ’ s Markus Soeder and North Rhine-Westphalia ’ s Armin Laschet .
Though politically allied with Merkel , they ’ re in the running to succeed her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trouble .
But their quibbles are trifling : Laschet wants to reopen somewhat more swiftly ; Soeder to err on the side of caution .
They ’ re also polite , both with each other and with Merkel .
In part that ’ s because all German politicians , and citizens , seem to have sworn a secret oath to defer to experts .
This shouldn ’ t come as a surprise in a culture where an email between old acquaintances is likely to open “ Dear Mr. Prof. Dr. Schmidt.
” But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its president , who appears viscerally threatened by his own infectious-diseases expert , Anthony Fauci .
The German debate about when and how to ease up on lockdowns , or to retighten them again later , will proceed differently than in some other places .
The country almost feels more like a technocracy than a democracy right now .
Indeed , the nominating convention for the race to succeed Merkel has just been postponed from this month to December at the earliest .
This week ’ s video conferences between the chancellor and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ largely debated the relative merits of one paper , by the German National Academy of Scientists , which called for selectively reopening schools for some age groups , and another , which urged keeping everything closed for another three weeks .
One criticism leveled at Germany and Merkel in recent years — by me and others — is that the country no longer dares to have big ideas or enact sweeping reforms , instead muddling through in a pusillanimous incrementalism of small steps .
That mindset will be a problem again once Covid-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long-term problems , from its aging population to its economic exhaustion .
But that critique belongs to a normal time , which 2020 is decidedly not .
The flip side of Germany ’ s “ small-steps ” politics is order , reliability and dispassionate competence .
It ’ s not exactly a recipe for vibrancy in good times .
But it keeps more people safe when things are bad .


washingtonpost--2020-03-30--Analysis | The Housing Market Is in Lockdown

Set against the loss of life caused by the virus , the anticipated collapse in housing transactions for at least the next few months is a price worth paying .
Still , the knock-on effect will be severe across the sector , from the mortgage lenders obliged to offer struggling customers three-month payment holidays to the home-builders like Persimmon Plc and Taylor Wimpey Plc who ’ ve closed construction sites .
For estate agents , struggling even before the pandemic , the standstill will be particularly painful .
Boris Johnson ’ s government is trying to cushion the blow by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ employee wages ( yes , even for real estate agents ) .
But smaller outfits , those with weak balance sheets or those that were mismanaged before coronavirus struck , face a very difficult year .
In the 2008-2009 downturn thousands of estate agents left the industry .
It won ’ t be just those forced to shutter high street branches that face a bleak period though ; while employees of digital property portals such as Rightmove Plc and Zoopla can more easily work from home , they ’ re being drawn into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ busy spring and summer selling season poised to start , the timing of the lockdown could hardly be worse .
The U.K. property market has already endured a few tepid years of because Brexit worries , stamp duty changes and high house prices that make it harder for people to purchase a home .
Now the much ballyhooed “ Boris bounce ” after his recent election win has been extinguished and 2020 looks like being a write-off , forcing estate agents to slash costs .
Countrywide Plc , the country ’ s biggest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ having piled on debt to fund expansion .
Shareholders recapitalized the business in 2018 via a massively discounted rights issue .
Its debt covenants were also amended .
Now , a takeover by rival LSL Property Services Plc has been called off ; an agreed 38 million pound sale of its commercial property arm also failed to complete .
Including lease obligations it still has about 194 million pounds of net debt , or almost 6 times ebitda .
That ’ s uncomfortably high .
London-focused Foxtons Group Plc is also loss-making but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and held 15.5 million pounds of cash at the end of December .
It has since drawn down a 5 million pounds credit line .
However , renting office space and the ubiquitous Minis that its agents drive around consumes about 12 million pounds annually , so it too must slash costs .
Besides rent , another big outlay for agents is the cost of advertising properties for sale with online portals .
On average market leader Rightmove Plc charges agents more than 1,000 pounds a month for each advertiser .
Coronavirus has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Rightmove ’ s initial offer to defer part of those payments for six months was poorly received , forcing it to backtrack and offer a 75 % discount for the next four months instead .
This will cost about 70 million pounds , or about one-fifth of estimated revenues .
But that ’ s not the end of it : Rival Zoopla , which was acquired by private equity firm SilverLake in 2018 for $ 3 billion , is offering agents nine months free if they quit Rightmove .
On Friday Rightmove @ @ @ @ @ @ @ guidance .
Loss-making platform Purplebricks Group Plc says it plans to conduct viewings and valuations via Zoom , Facetime and Whatsapp .
But its fixed-fee model ( customers must pay even if their home doesn ’ t sell ) could come under more pressure .
The company is already reeling from a failed U.S. and Australian expansion .
German media giant Axel Springer SE doubled its stake last year and now owns 26 % of the group , but the shares have since lost about two-thirds of their value .
It ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ travel bookings has prompted people who usually let their homes on Airbnb in tourist hotpots like London and Edinburgh to advertise long term rentals instead .
Eventually the wider property market should rebound , driven in part by the desire of those who are presently housebound deciding they really do need a bigger home or more green space .
Yet the pace of that rebound , and the outlook for prices , will depend on whether government succeeds in preventing the temporary shock of coronavirus wreaking permanent economic damage .
As elsewhere , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purchase a home , and banks could tighten lending standards .
Estate agents that survive the current drought will have to work even harder for their fees .


washingtonpost--2020-03-30--Analysis | Welcome to a Truly Free Oil Market

The pumping free-for-all unleashed by Saudi Arabia and Russia is important for the long-term shape of the oil industry , but , as my colleague Javier Blas pointed out here , it ’ s a sideshow to the havoc being wrought by the lockdowns crippling economies worldwide in response to the coronavirus pandemic .
Forecasts of a catastrophic drop in oil demand abound , with estimates of a whopping 20 % year-on-year reduction in global consumption in April becoming more common .
That ’ s 20 million barrels a day , equivalent to the entire consumption of the United States @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be too optimistic , according to Goldman Sachs .
It would be impossible for any small group of producers to mitigate that kind of impact by reducing output , unless Saudi Arabia and Russia were both to slash their production to almost zero .
And that ’ s not going to happen .
On Wednesday , U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on Saudi Arabia ’ s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to take the lead as his country prepared to host a meeting of the Group of 20 nations .
Pompeo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the occasion and reassure global energy and financial markets.
” That ’ s a reasonable request .
Somebody has to show leadership and it doesn ’ t look like it ’ s going to be President Donald Trump .
The trouble is that I suspect what Pompeo meant is for Saudi Arabia to cut its production unilaterally , rather than trying to bring together a short-term “ coalition of the willing , ” including the U.S. , to work together to confront a global problem .
After all , that ’ s always @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Take for example the response to the Asian financial crisis .
In February 1999 , then President Bill Clinton ’ s energy secretary , Bill Richardson , expressed U.S. concerns over oil prices that had fallen below $ 10 a barrel .
Two months later the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to its third successive output cut and by the end of the year Brent crude had recovered to $ 25 a barrel .
It ’ s no surprise that Saudi Arabia was willing to take the lead back then , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ output cuts .
It , too , wanted higher oil prices .
Those were the days when oil was regarded as a depleting asset whose value would only rise in the future , as demand outstripped available supply .
Cutting production would leave oil in the ground that would appreciate in value .
But that was a long time ago .
That view no longer holds sway — battered both by the tsunami of crude extracted from shale rocks and the growing awareness of the need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions that has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with worries ( for producers ) of peak oil demand .
Oil left in the ground now is at risk of never being produced at all .
Of course back in 1999 , it would have been unreasonable to expect America to join in the output reduction effort .
The U.S. was pumping a little over 6 million barrels a day — less than half its current production — and the gas-guzzling nation imported about 10 million barrels a day more crude and refined products than it exported .
But 2020 is not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ world ’ s biggest crude producer , pumping 13 million barrels a day — more even than Saudi Arabia can supply if it opens its taps fully .
And so far this year it has exported more oil than it has imported .
As it stands at the moment , OPEC is not due to meet until early June , and whether the cartel ’ s external allies including Russia join them in an enlarged OPEC+ shindig remains to be seen .
No matter , any action agreed then wouldn ’ t have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earliest .
Even an agreement reached tomorrow would have little impact until May , with April crude sales now largely completed .
By then storage tanks around the globe will be close to capacity ; ships full of unwanted oil will be floating in safe anchorages ; and producers will be forced to shut wells because they have simply run out places to put any crude they pump out of the ground .
The window to distribute those cuts in an orderly manner between producers has closed .
OPEC had its last chance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ subsequently squandered their chance at leadership .
As it now stands , production cuts will be distributed by the market on the basis of who has access to storage tanks and who is losing money by pumping .
Welcome to the free market .


washingtonpost--2020-03-27--Facebook Reshapes Product Roadmap as the World Hunkers Down

Messaging and voice calls from Facebook ’ s Messenger and WhatsApp services have jumped more than 50 % in some of the regions hit hardest by the response to Covid-19 .
The number of people in the U.S. watching livestreams on the Facebook Live video feature has increased by 50 % since January , Simo noted .
“ Live is definitely exploding right now , ” she said .
Facebook is moving quickly to capitalize on rising usage by people stuck at home .
The company announced a handful of updates to Facebook Live on Friday , including a way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Facebook account .
It ’ s also expanding its digital tipping product so viewers can send money to more creators in need of support during the economic downturn .
Expanding its focus on Live means reducing attention on other products , and Facebook has had to quickly shift priorities .
It no longer makes sense to have as many people working on products that encourage in-person gathering , like Facebook Events , Simo said .
Facebook has stopped showing as many event reminders to users , and employees have been asked to temporarily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help , like Live , News and Groups .
Facebook is trying to match up skill sets .
Facebook Marketplace , for example , isn ’ t as important right now because it ’ s not a good time for strangers to meet up to exchange used goods , Simo said .
But those employees are well-versed in helping Facebook users make money , and some of them have been redirected to assisting small- and medium-sized businesses weather the current storm .
After the virus , Facebook will likely prioritize Groups , live @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Simo said .
“ It ’ s a need that exists in times of physical distancing , but it ’ s a need that exists in normal times as well , ” she said .
All of these efforts have been further complicated because Facebook employees are working remotely , which Simo described as a “ big disruption , ” and a particular challenge for employees with children in the house and families to take care of .
As people flock to Facebook properties in record numbers , the company is trying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their newly chaotic home lives .
“ In order to allow employees time taking care of children at home , their schedules have become more flexible , ” Simo said .
She has cut the number of meetings in half .
Despite the rise in usage , Facebook ’ s business doesn ’ t stand to benefit — at least in the near term .
Many of the products that people are using , like messaging and Facebook Live , don ’ t have established businesses yet .
Facebook said earlier this week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost all of the company ’ s revenue , has been “ weakening ” as a result of Covid-19 .
Simo said that Facebook needs to move “ incredibly quickly ” to figure out more ways for users and small businesses to make money from its services , and those efforts are a priority over Facebook ’ s own revenue .
“ We have a very big ads team whose entire job is focused on figuring that out , ” Simo said when asked if there was pressure to start better monetizing these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ focus on helping our users during this specific time , and helping with economic opportunity , is really the right focus .
”


washingtonpost--2020-03-30--Analysis | From Orban to Kaczynski, Wannabe Autocrats Love the Pandemic

Take , for instance , two wannabe dictators in the European Union , which fancies itself a club of law-abiding democracies .
One is Viktor Orban , the prime minister of Hungary , a nation that he ’ s shaped into an “ illiberal democracy , ” in his own proud words .
The other is Jaroslaw Kaczynski , the chairman of the ruling Law & Justice ( PiS ) party and de facto ruler of Poland .
Both are using the Covid-19 pandemic as a flimsy pretext to establish dictatorships in all but name .
This week , Orban @ @ @ @ @ @ @ empowerment law ” ( doesn ’ t that sound vaguely like an “ enabling act ” ? )
.
It lets Orban rule by decree , and without any time limit whatsoever .
Jaw-dropping in its brazenness , the new law also allows Orban to suspend any previous law he doesn ’ t like and changes the criminal code so that Orban ’ s government can imprison anybody who in its opinion “ distorts ” facts .
In effect , it ’ s a silent coup d ’ etat that leaves Orban ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the name of fighting the coronavirus , you understand .
Meanwhile in Poland , Kaczynski just rigged the electoral system so that his party ’ s candidate , incumbent Andrzej Duda , is sure to remain president in the election slated for May 10 .
That ballot shouldn ’ t be taking place in the first place : Poland is in lockdown , which prevents the opposition from campaigning , whereas Duda still travels the country and appears on PiS-controlled TV .
But Kaczynski wants the vote to happen , and also wants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , between 2am and 4:20am on Saturday morning , in a largely empty parliament where PiS has the absolute majority , he suddenly introduced 79 pages of amendments into an emergency law ostensibly targeted at the coronavirus .
The changes , which alter the election rules to favour PiS , violate parliamentary rules and the constitution .
Jerzy Stepien , a former president of Poland ’ s constitutional tribunal , called the move another step toward a “ dictatorship in Poland.
” The EU could and should punish Hungary and Poland , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Kaczynski , along with a few of their eastern European pals , have each other ’ s backs .
So the only remaining checks on the two leaders would in theory be their own countries ’ courts .
Conveniently , however , both have spent years stacking them with loyalists .
With their new powers , they ’ ll be able to make their judiciaries fully beholden to them .
Poland and Hungary are in a sense providing a user manual for creeping autocratic takeovers , and lots of eager students are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Netanyahu has just staged his own sort of “ coronavirus coup.
” Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen has arrested opposition critics in the name of cracking down on fake news over the coronavirus .
From India to Russia and Brazil , leaders seem quite enthusiastic about all sorts of drastic emergency measures that just happen to eliminate political nuisances .
China ’ s Xi Jinping already has , of course ; but he at least never pretended to be a democrat .
None of this is really new .
Epidemics have put freedom-loving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the plague struck Periclean Athens in 430 BCE .
The difference is that today the tools of epidemiology are also potentially perfect instruments of totalitarianism .
From China to Singapore and the West , governments are using or deploying artificial intelligence , facial recognition and social-contact analysis to trace the viral pathways .
These same technologies can also turn into permanent surveillance for other purposes .
But who wants to seem “ unpatriotic ” right now , or to put lives at risk by saying no to containment efforts as the bodies mount @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on limits if we treasure our liberties .
At some point , this pandemic will recede .
And when it does , the extraordinary measures to contain it must end as well .
Otherwise , we will have survived one hell only to enter another .


washingtonpost--2020-03-30--Peru Tackles Virus With Region’s Biggest Stimulus, Eyes IMF Help

The economic package equals to 12 % of gross domestic product , more than any other country in the region has announced to date , and could be increased further , said Finance Minister Maria Antonieta Alva .
It includes short-term measures such as cash handouts , and longer term measures to “ rebuild ” some industries such as tourism that face devastation as a result of the pandemic , she told America Television ’ s Cuarto Poder program on Sunday .
“ The impact of what ’ s happening is unprecedented , so we need to implement an unprecedented @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said .
“ We have the fiscal backing to take audacious but necessary measures.
” The country has also begun talks with the International Monetary Fund for a contingency line that could reach $ 18 billion , central bank President Julio Velarde said Sunday .
The sol is unlikely to see a “ significant ” depreciation , he told Lima-based Canal N network ’ s Agenda Politica program .
Peru ’ s massive stimulus illustrates the magnitude of the economic damage being wrought by the deadly virus , with a growing number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its worst recession in decades .
The package dwarfs neighboring Chile ’ s plan to deploy 4.7 % of GDP while the $ 2 trillion package signed by U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday amounts to about 10 % of GDP .
Years of prudent fiscal management have put Peru in an enviable position to finance increased spending .
The country is the highest-rated sovereign credit in the region after Chile , and the government has tens of billions of dollars in savings .
“ They are ahead of the curve , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Alvaro Vivanco , head of Latin America strategy at Natwest Markets in Stamford , Connecticut .
Still , with international markets in turmoil , the country ’ s bonds have taken a battering , and its currency fell to its weakest in 18 years this month .
Peru ’ s economy began shutting down March 16 after President Martin Vizcarra decreed a nationwide lock-down to stem the spread of the coronavirus .
Shops , offices and factories closed , while mines scaled back operations to a minimum .
Last week Vizcarra extended the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gathered pace , and said the government will increase emergency cash handouts to the poor .
Almost 70 % of the economy is currently off-line , according to the central bank .
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Friday it expects Peru ’ s economy to contract 2.5 % this year , compared with the 3.3 % expansion it had forecast before the coronavirus pandemic .
Policy makers ’ top concern is ensuring that companies whose revenue has dried up continue making payments to each other and lenders , Velarde said .
Under the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will provide credit to banks at an annual interest rate of 1.25 % or less so they can lend to companies lacking working capital .
The program will be implemented before the containment measure is lifted , he said .
The central bank cut its benchmark rate by 1 percentage point to 1.25 % earlier this month , and the rate may be lowered to 1 % in coming weeks , Velarde said .
He added the bank is concerned annual inflation could fall below 1 % , compared with close to 2 @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-03-30--Wells Fargo Has $384 Billion of Lending Power Stymied by Fed Cap

As the coronavirus pandemic began upending the economy in recent weeks , it quickly emerged that Wells Fargo ’ s representatives had privately broached the idea of at least temporarily lifting the restriction so it could help more customers .
The Fed has yet to publicly disclose its decision .
Behind the scenes , Fed officials are skeptical the bank is ready , the people said .
Wells Fargo ’ s new leaders have been making progress but have yet to prove they have made adequate reforms to prevent the consumer abuses that fueled scandals in recent years .
And @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will miss an April deadline to submit a required plan for improvements .
“ While we can not comment on regulatory matters , Wells Fargo is focused on satisfying the requirements of the consent order , ” the company said in a statement .
“ During these challenging times , we are very focused on doing all we can for our clients while operating under the constraints of the asset cap.
” The Fed ’ s consent order from February 2018 caps Wells Fargo ’ s assets at their 2017 level .
At @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bank was just $ 24 billion short of that level -- all the room it had to grow unless the ban is rescinded .
With credit lines being drawn by companies and deposits flowing in , it may already have gotten there .
Wells Fargo executives have made internal adjustments over the years to ensure they can meet customers ’ needs .
The bank should be able to keep meeting demands from existing clients , but it might be constrained in ramping up lending significantly as new ones seek help , one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Fed in a difficult spot -- conflicted between its role as a tough regulator of financial giants and its current efforts as a central bank trying to ensure ample cash for the struggling economy .
The Fed has encouraged the biggest lenders to use their excess capital and dip into additional buffers to expand lending during the pandemic .
Bloomberg calculated Wells Fargo ’ s capacity for additional lending based on its capital at the end of 2019 .
Together , the nation ’ s eight banking titans had enough then to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But ironically , the firm with the most firepower among them can ’ t proceed .
It would be tricky to lift the ban temporarily , because it would entail setting a time line for undoing any growth .
It ’ s one thing to prevent a balance sheet from expanding , quite another to shrink it significantly after making hundreds of billions of dollars in ongoing loans .
Chief Executive Officer Charlie Scharf took over in October after two previous CEOs frustrated regulators and politicians who accused the bank of failing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Unlike his predecessors , both longtime Wells Fargo veterans , Scharf is an outsider , and he ’ s been developing plans to more radically overhaul the company .
At a congressional hearing this year , he acknowledged there ’ s much left to do .
The bank ’ s representatives didn ’ t try pressing a case to the Fed that Scharf ’ s work on reforms is done , the people said .
Rather , they noted the scope of the emergency facing the country and the bank ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Wells Fargo would be able to arrange significantly more financing for consumers , local businesses , large corporations and municipalities .
Wells Fargo has been in Washington ’ s crosshairs since a variety of scandals emerged following the 2016 revelation that employees had opened millions of potentially fake accounts to meet sales goals .
Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have expressed deep frustration with the bank , with some signaling the Fed would face a backlash if it ’ s lifted .
But there ’ s a chance that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ might shift the political landscape .
On Saturday , Maxine Waters , who chairs the House Financial Services Committee , asked Fed Chair Jerome Powell for information on Wells Fargo ’ s request and what the regulator makes of it .
She wants his staff to provide a briefing to the committee in coming days on its supervision of the bank .
Companies eager for cash have drawn down credit lines and arranged new facilities , obtaining at least $ 177 billion in financing since March 9 , when Bloomberg News began tracking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bankers have sought to persuade corporate clients that they don ’ t need to tap cash preemptively -- often for reasons that have less to do with liquidity than profitability .
That suggests that even if Wells Fargo ’ s cap were lifted , it may not rush to deploy all of the money .
Wells Fargo had 9.6 % of the market share for U.S. deposits in 2019 , according to Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data .
If it maintained that share , the influx would amount to about $ 40 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2017 asset cap .


washingtonpost--2020-05-20--Nasdaq’s China Crackdown Looks Halfhearted

Companies will need to raise at least $ 25 million , or sell stock equal to a minimum 25 % of their post-listing market capitalization , according to a Bloomberg News report that cited Nasdaq filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission .
Luckin sold $ 645 million of shares in its IPO last May .
There ’ s little comfort in this for the would-be Starbucks Corp. challenger : Nasdaq is seeking to delist Luckin after the company acknowledged fabricating sales transactions and fired its chief executive .
Its shares , which will resume trading Wednesday , plummeted more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last month .
For other companies , though , the message is that the lure of IPO business still trumps U.S. government pressure to deter the flow of money into Chinese assets .
The revised standards aren ’ t particularly punitive .
Only three of 10 Nasdaq IPOs by Chinese issuers in 2020 raised less than $ 25 million .
Last year , 10 of 29 flotations failed to meet the threshold , which is about the price of an upmarket New York townhouse .
The requirement to sell at least a quarter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Half the companies selling shares this year floated less than 25 % .
Maybe we shouldn ’ t be surprised at the low bar .
Chinese companies are big business after all , with a combined current market value of $ 380 billion on Nasdaq .
The New York Stock Exchange , meanwhile , has almost $ 760 billion of Chinese listings — most of that accounted for by internet giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
There ’ s no sign that a rising U.S. climate of hostility to China is deterring IPO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ raised $ 510 million this month after increasing the size of its float .
Dada Nexus Ltd. , an operator of crowd-sourced delivery platforms backed by Alibaba rival JD.com Inc. , is currently sounding out investors for a $ 500 million offering .
Such sales must come as welcome relief after a deals drought caused by the coronavirus lockdown .
A bigger issue in rooting out fraud and malpractice is U.S. regulators ’ access to company financial records and audit papers , something that China prevents .
Current rules already allow Nasdaq to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such restrictions .
Nasdaq is proposing more stringent criteria , including requiring auditors to show that they have sufficient expertise with international accounting standards in the offices doing the audit .
This looks like a Band-Aid .
The impression persists of an exchange that was under pressure to do something about Chinese companies — and came up with little more than the bare minimum .
Just in case there was any doubt about the U.S. government ’ s stance , President Donald Trump ’ s economic adviser Larry Kudlow weighed in Tuesday to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese companies and the U.S. needs to protect investors from the country ’ s lack of transparency and accountability .
Problems tend to be concentrated among the smallest and least liquid companies , so it makes sense to target them .
Shares of Nasdaq-listed Chinese companies that raised less than $ 25 million since the start of 2017 are down an average of 60 % from their IPO price — compared with a 34 % average increase for all Chinese issuers selling shares during the period .
( 1 ) No one wants @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have become increasingly skeptical of unprofitable technology companies .
For the rest , America remains open for business — unless you ’ re Huawei Technologies Inc .


washingtonpost--2020-05-20--Analysis | Nasdaq’s China Crackdown Looks Halfhearted


washingtonpost--2020-05-20--The SEC Halted a Stock Over Virus Claims. Then the Company Got a PPP Loan

What ’ s more , Predictive Technology isn ’ t the only publicly traded company that ’ s had run-ins with the SEC and also received PPP funding that ’ s remained out of reach for many small businesses .
Cool Holdings Inc. , which sells electronics equipment , received a loan despite being under investigation for securities fraud .
MiMedx Group Inc. was awarded a $ 10 million PPP loan after paying a $ 6.5 million penalty in April to end a Justice Department probe into claims it defrauded the federal government .
MiMedx , which didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , has since returned its loan for reasons unrelated to the Justice Department probe .
Predictive Technology , whose board includes Republican former Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah , is a biotechnology company that ’ s run by Chief Executive Officer Bradley Robinson and has about 110 employees .
In a previous venture , Robinson was accused in a 2013 lawsuit of making false claims tied to a cholesterol-lowering algae water product that he said would be pitched to the television personality Dr. Oz , the Gates Foundation and Walgreen executives .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lawyer for the complainants said .
The SEC , in suspending Predictive Technology ’ s shares , cited three news releases published by the company in March and early April .
In one , on March 25 , the company stated it planned to distribute a finger-prick test that screens for coronavirus antibodies , delivering results within 15 minutes .
In another news release on April 8 , the company said it had a million initial orders .
According to Hindenburg Research , which has shorted Predictive Technology shares , said the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ partner received Chinese government approval to distribute the antibody tests .
The tests were still being marketed on Predictive Technology ’ s website on Tuesday .
Federal securities law allows the SEC to suspend trading in the shares of public companies for as many as 10 days if it deems that doing so is in the public interest , according to the regulator .
After the period lapses , shares can trade on the over-the-counter market but generally at lower prices .
The agency warns investors to be “ very skeptical ” when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Predictive Technology have fallen 57 % since the trading halt was lifted , to 35 cents .
They have declined 92 % in the last year .
Congress passed the PPP legislation in March to help companies meet expenses such as payroll after the coronavirus pandemic all but shut down businesses all across the U.S .
The Trump administration ’ s rollout of the program has been criticized by Democratic lawmakers for allowing publicly traded companies , which can raise money from capital markets , to receive the loans at the expense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ After the criticism , the Treasury Department and SBA have since issued new guidance , warning companies with large valuations and access to capital markets that it ’ s unlikely they could certify in good faith that a PPP loan is “ necessary to support the ongoing operations of the applicant.
” More than 60 out of the roughly 400 public companies that received the loans have returned them , according to data from FactSquared .


washingtonpost--2020-05-03--Trump Donor Whose Hotels Won Small-Business Loans Returns Money

“ We are disappointed that , in an abundance of caution to avoid any risk of non-compliance with the changed PPP rules , our actions mean that our employees , vendors , communities and others in need will not benefit from the PPP as Congress intended , ” he said in a statement .
The move follows criticism that public companies like Bennett ’ s were able to secure millions of dollars in funding from the program while some mom-and-pop businesses were left with nothing .
On Friday , Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer called on the SBA to review @ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies .
“ This runs against the spirit of the law to provide much needed funds to truly small or family-owned businesses around the country that are in dire need of assistance , ” the New York senator said .
Bennett is the chairman of three interrelated companies : Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc. and Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. , which own the hotels , and Ashford Inc. , which provides asset management and hotel management services in exchange for advisory fees .
The three together disclosed receiving about $ 70 million in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The companies were able to secure loans because of a loophole that allowed big restaurant chains and other large companies to rake in millions in low-interest loans .
On Thursday , the Trump administration announced a new rule that single corporate groups shouldn ’ t get more than $ 20 million in total loans , which applies if businesses are “ majority owned , directly or indirectly , by a common parent.
” As Congress was rushing to rescue small businesses in March , Ashford hired two Trump-linked lobbyists to advocate for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ filed with Congress .
One was Roy Bailey , the Republican fund-raiser in Texas who served as the 2016 co-chairman of the Trump campaign ’ s fund-raising arm and raised money for Trump ’ s preferred super-PAC .
The other was Miller Strategies LLC , whose chief executive officer , Jeffrey Miller , is also bundler for his 2016 campaign .
Bennett is also a Trump donor .
He gave $ 150,000 in the last six months to a fund-raising committee for the president ’ s reelection campaign and for Republicans , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ donated more than $ 200,000 during the 2016 presidential campaign .
For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com


washingtonpost--2020-05-01--Analysis | Elon Musk Is Right About Tesla’s Stock

It ’ s also a kick in the teeth for investors .
In February , Tesla sold $ 2.3 billion of new shares at $ 767 apiece .
When Musk put thumb to touchscreen on Friday , the “ too high ” stock was trading at about $ 761 .
I guess the assumed discount rate must have changed or something in the intervening two months or so .
It should have , obviously , given the Covid-19 pandemic piling more risk onto Tesla ’ s already less-than-utility-like model .
Indeed , much as Musk ’ s “ funding secured @ @ @ @ @ @ @ frustration about short sellers and Tesla ’ s struggles with the Model 3 , this week ’ s antics come at a time of increased stress .
Wednesday ’ s earnings call was going rather well — by its peculiar , stage-managed standards — until Musk created a storm by declaring disease-related lock-downs to be “ fascist.
” While that may reflect a deep libertarian streak , such a stance would seem at odds with running a business that has relied on billions in subsidies and is now expanding in China .
Possibly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continuing suspension of activity at Tesla ’ s main factory in California means for cash flow .
I had suspected Tesla might soon seek to raise more capital to offset that risk .
In a way , a lower price would help with that .
Although you also have to wonder how underwriters could square the risk of the CEO intervening suddenly to crater the stock price .
On the other hand , everyone somehow learned to live with his earlier , similar intervention pushing it the other way .
Once again , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on all this .
Tesla revealed earlier this week that Musk will provide directors and officers liability insurance for a year after regular insurers quoted “ disproportionately high premiums ” for some unfathomable reason .
It is a peculiar , and yet distinctly Teslarian arrangement , with Musk embedded at the center as both risk factor and underwriter .
Friday ’ s bizarre episode fits the mold perfectly .
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners .
Liam Denning is a Bloomberg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ commodities .
He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal ’ s Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times ’ Lex column .
He was also an investment banker .


washingtonpost--2020-05-03--The Big Keep Getting Bigger in the Pandemic-Rearranged Economy

For almost a year , the Justice Department , Federal Trade Commission , and state attorneys general have been investigating Alphabet Inc. ’ s Google and Facebook Inc. for possible antitrust infractions .
Antitrust officials claimed those inquiries were hardly slowed down by the outbreak as they shifted to working remotely .
As the economy reopens , enforcers may find themselves under pressure not to undertake actions that could hurt jobs .
The pandemic is playing to the strengths of the biggest digital players , as seen in their earnings results for the quarter ending in March .
Amazon.com Inc. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep up with a surge in demand from millions of homebound consumers .
In what is normally a slow quarter , sales jumped 26 % to a record $ 75.5 billion , though earnings fell 29 % compared with the same period in 2019 .
Dominant companies were already on the march across industries , from the internet to wireless carriers and from health care to food processing , long before the virus hit .
For years , antitrust experts and economists have been warning that markets were becoming less competitive , harming @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Now , antitrust experts fear that as the largest companies increase market shares , decimated firms might disappear or have little choice but to sell out at fire-sale prices to stronger rivals -- and that regulators and lawmakers will be under pressure not to stand in the way as the economy struggles to get up off its knees .
“ If you have some shock to the system -- a financial crisis , a war -- one effect is the weakest firms in the market tend to fail , ” said Daniel Crane @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Michigan who studies antitrust law .
“ I do worry that the world that recovers from this will be one characterized by firms having failed and pressure to consolidate.
” The 2008 financial crisis , in which a wave of bank mergers increased concentration , could offer a template for what ’ s to come .
The banks that were “ too big to fail ” in 2008 got even bigger , with the blessing of policy makers who encouraged the strong to gobble up the weak .
This time , embattled retail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could follow suit .
Clothing chain J .
Crew Group Inc. is preparing a potential bankruptcy filing , Bloomberg has reported .
J.C. Penney Co. and Neiman Marcus Group Inc. are in talks with creditors about restructuring debt and might file for bankruptcy .
Car-rental giant Hertz Global Holdings Inc. is trying to preserve cash and get leniency from lenders to avoid a bankruptcy .
New York University economist Thomas Philippon , whose book , “ The Great Reversal , ” documented how U.S. markets have become less competitive , said big companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the $ 2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package .
Meanwhile , millions of small firms were left with a poorly designed Small Business Administration loan program that ’ s been swamped by demand , including from larger companies with the ability to tap stock and bond markets .
Some are already closing up shop .
Service , a travel app , folded after an investment deal and a backup plan to sell to Enterprise Holdings Inc. fell through in quick succession , said Michael Schneider , the chief executive officer .
He had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Angeles that they were out of a job .
“ It feels like the end of the world , ” he said .
Tyson and its top two rivals -- JBS SA and Cargill Inc. -- control about two-thirds of America ’ s beef production , the bulk of which is done in a few dozen giant plants .
Pork and chicken are similarly dominated .
Their tight control prompted Senators Tammy Baldwin , a Wisconsin Democrat , and Josh Hawley , a Missouri Republican , on April 29 to seek an antitrust @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Agon , the chairman of French cosmetics giant L ’ Oreal SA , alluded to that possibility on an April 16 earnings call .
“ It ’ s unfortunate , but it ’ s the Darwinian side of this industry , ” he said .
“ We are pretty sure to be able to get out this crisis even stronger .
So will there be opportunities for interesting acquisitions ?
We will see.
” Wall Street investment banker Ken Moelis echoed that sentiment .
“ The people who are going to survive this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ industry , ” he said during Moelis & Co. ’ s April 22 earnings call .
“ I could see a large M & A wave in industries where you just have to consolidate out the middle , and we end up with very large concentrated industries.
” Two other Democrats , Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York , are proposing legislation to ban corporate mergers while the pandemic persists .
Cicilline said in an April 28 interview with Bloomberg TV that he would try to get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measure .
The increase in concentration has sparked calls for tougher antitrust enforcement and proposals to overhaul how regulators police mergers and anti-competitive conduct .
The issue was debated on the 2020 presidential campaign trail and has become an area of common ground for Democrats and Republicans who have raised concerns about the power wielded by big companies , particularly Google and Facebook .
Yet antitrust officials at the Justice Department and the FTC could face political pressure to pull back on enforcement , said Crane , the University of Michigan professor , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ceded to other priorities during wars and financial panics .
During World War II , for example , the Franklin D. Roosevelt administration implemented formal policies that shielded companies from antitrust prosecution .


washingtonpost--2020-05-03--SBA Touts More Small Businesses Getting Relief Funds in New Data

The average loan size in the second round through May 1 dropped to $ 79,000 from $ 206,000 in the first round , the data show .
That suggests more mom-and-pop shops with smaller payrolls are getting loans approved than in the initial round .
Just over half of the $ 320 billion authorized for the program ’ s second round have been processed so far .
Still , questions remain about how big banks are faring versus small lenders , as well as other concerns including borrowers and lenders wanting more guidance about how loans will be forgiven , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deadline to provide it .
There are also concerns that the second round of funding won ’ t be enough , and Congress may need to provide more , White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on CNN on Sunday .
“ I don ’ t want to rule it out , ” Kudlow said .
“ We waited a little bit too long , I thought , when the last tranche ran out .
Let ’ s not make the same mistake again .
We will be looking at that.
” The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a way to help small businesses devastated by the outbreak keep workers employed and be ready to reopen .
An initial $ 349 billion ran out on April 16 in just 13 days with 1.66 million firms getting loan approvals , and a second round with $ 320 billion started April 27 .
Through Friday , 2.2 million applications worth $ 175.7 billion had been processed , the SBA said .
But reports of big restaurant chains and hotel groups getting loans through a provision in the law , and other large @ @ @ @ @ @ @ firms were shut out in the first round , sparked outrage .
Texas hotelier Monty Bennett , whose companies are among the biggest known recipients of loans that total about $ 70 million , said Saturday he ’ ll return the money .
The data released Sunday show that lenders with less than $ 10 billion in assets accounted for 32 % of the approved loan amount in the second round so far , and the percentage of loans of more than $ 5 million decreased after the SBA and Treasury took steps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ applications through .
The agencies issued a new rule on April 30 that limited to $ 20 million the value of loans that corporate groups can get , and the SBA changed how it accepted applications from lenders -- even setting aside eight hours on Wednesday only for banks with less than $ 1 billion in assets to submit applications .
The SBA and Treasury have said the program wasn ’ t intended for large companies with access to other capital , and urged such firms to return their loans by May 7 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 28 that the SBA will review all loans of more than $ 2 million before they are forgiven , for criminal liability .
States that got lower rates of approved loans in the first round are generally doing better than average during the second round , narrowing the gap between haves and have-nots .
California small businesses got first-round loans worth just 38 % of what they were eligible for under the program , and those in New York got 40 % , according to estimates from Ernie Tedeschi , an analyst at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % for the country as a whole .
As of May 1 , loans from both rounds of the program pushed the rates in California and New York to 75 % , compared with 81 % for the country overall .
The hardest-hit areas of the country got disproportionately less under the first round of the program , according to a recent study by researchers at the University of Chicago and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology .
The authors , Joao Granja , Christos Makridis , Constantine Yannelis and Eric Zwick , analyzed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t been made public .
Some observers have suggested that businesses in the hardest-hit areas might have found the program less attractive because their outlook is so grim that re-opening and recovery seem less likely .
In that context , Sunday ’ s data may be an encouraging sign : There were more than twice as many loans to hard-hit states such as New York and New Jersey in the second round than in the first , suggesting strong demand .
Other researchers , including Granja ’ s group , put more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were more successful than others in processing PPP loans , and that areas with more of those banks benefited disproportionately from the program .


washingtonpost--2020-04-30--Analysis | Why Germany Will Never Be Europe’s Leader

The Covid-19 pandemic is thus a tragic rerun of last decade ’ s euro crisis .
Back then , it was above all the Greeks who were angry at the tightwad Germans , even drawing Hitler mustaches on posters of Chancellor Angela Merkel .
Today , it ’ s primarily Italians and Spaniards who are livid .
The Germans , for their part , are once again nonplussed about why others are so upset .
During the euro crisis , Germany participated in rescue programs even though the EU treaties prohibit bailouts .
That made Germans feel generous .
Now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ send bags of money to the countries most ravaged by SARS-CoV-2 .
It ’ s also true that Germany is today saying no to “ coronabonds ” — a form of mutualized European debt — exactly as it rejected “ euro bonds ” back then .
But as the largest paymaster of the EU ’ s other institutions , German cash is still going where it ’ s needed , and Germans feel they ought to get credit .
This mutual miscommunication is a potential time bomb that could one day blow up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a design flaw in the EU and a deficit in German political consciousness .
That ’ s because the EU is an inchoate bloc .
To keep working , it needs a benign leader , or hegemon .
And only one country is economically and politically ( though not militarily ) powerful enough to play that role .
In Germany itself , this “ hegemony debate ” began in 2012 with an essay by a German professor , Christoph Schoenberger .
In international relations , a hegemon isn ’ t a power that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it ’ s a country that uses its power to preserve a larger system , even at a cost to its more narrowly defined national interests — by being a lender of last resort , for example .
Britain was the hegemon during the gold standard era of the 19th century .
The U.S. was hegemon in the Bretton Woods system after World War II .
In the same way , Germany should accept that it ’ s the hegemon of the euro area and the EU , goes one argument .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ European integration began in the 1950s , just after a barbaric German war of aggression .
From the start , European institutions were built so that no country , especially not Germany , could ever dominate the others .
So , for example , Berlin contributes 21.44 % of the capital of the European Central Bank , but has only marginally more clout on its Governing Council than Malta , with 0.09 % .
In the European Stability Mechanism , the EU ’ s rescue fund , Germany has enough weight to block @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And so on .
The practical workaround during much of the past six decades has been a sort of joint hegemony by Germany and France , sometimes called the European “ tandem ” or “ engine.
” France , in this partnership , was meant to keep the southern members happy , Germany the northern and eastern ones , so the EU as a whole could move forward .
This Franco-German division of labor has all but broken down .
That ’ s in part because the two countries have different interests .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ firepower to be co-hegemon .
So the search for a European leader again points to Germany .
The problem is that the country ’ s public is dead set against this role .
On the political left , Germans cite their dark history and argue that Germany must subordinate itself to its community of neighbors rather than be seen to steer them .
They often quote the writer Thomas Mann , who feared a “ German Europe ” and hoped for a “ European Germany.
” It doesn ’ t help that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fuehrer .
On the political right , Germans worry about the design flaws in the EU institutions I mentioned above .
These make the Germans financially liable without giving them corresponding and proportionate control or supervision .
Hence their obsession with “ moral hazard , ” lest Italians spend money guaranteed by Germans , while Germans have no sway over Italian policy .
The nightmare of conservative Germans is a “ transfer union ” in which their tax euros keep disappearing in the bottomless pit of the south , sapping Germany ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dilemma would be to give the euro area and the EU a proper government , with its own tax revenues and budget powers .
Germany would then be just the largest contingent in a new entity , a bit like Virginia in the nascent U.S .
Such a bold step might have been conceivable under a europhile chancellor like Helmut Kohl .
But that was another era .
Nobody today , in Germany or in the 26 other EU countries , is ready for such a leap .
And so the German establishment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ calling for “ more Europe ” without defining what that means or providing the money to make it happen .
In practice , the Germans are the same as the fiscally hawkish Dutch and Austrians , except slightly more diplomatic because they know everyone ’ s watching them .
As in the euro crisis , Germany will keep doing just enough to prevent the single currency ’ s outright dissolution , but never enough to cure its maladies .
This week I gave Schoenberger a call , to hear his thoughts eight years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ What ’ s changed since 2012 , he told me , is that today the tensions are greater and the resources scarcer , so that somebody must lead : “ Either the Germans do it , or nobody does it , and then the structure collapses .
”