washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Analysis | Walmart’s Winning Ways Will Last After Lockdowns

The big-box giant had two distinct advantages during the Covid-19 restrictions that forced a quarter of a million shops to close , inflicting devastation across much of American retail .
First , as an essential retailer , it was able to stay open .
That meant Walmart shoppers could pick up supplies of electronics and fabric that they couldn ’ t get at other stores alongside their grocery items .
Secondly , Walmart has been investing heavily in its online business to protect itself from the threat posed by Amazon.com Inc. That paid off .
The retailer ’ s efforts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supermarkets into a bridgehead against the online behemoth with click-and-collect pickup services at more than 3,000 stores helped it to navigate the spike in demand , as U.S. e-commerce sales soared by 74 % in the first quarter .
It wasn ’ t unalloyed good news .
Despite the strong quarter , Walmart — like many other corporations — withdrew its full-year forecast made just three months ago .
And the retailer incurred an extra $ 900 million of costs , owing to enhanced wages and benefits for staff and increased safety and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also entails higher expenses , as the retailer must do many of the things that the customer would have done in the past .
As online demand rises , so do these costs , and this will be an ongoing challenge as sales migrate to the click of a mouse or tap of a smartphone .
Meanwhile , in the early stages of the crisis , there was more demand for food , whose margins can be as thin as a slice of ham , as opposed to more profitable categories such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. operating profit didn ’ t increase as strongly as same-store sales in the quarter , and its gross profit margin narrowed by 1.1 percentage points .
There are other challenges as well .
Bulk buying of soup , pasta and hair dye is unlikely to be repeated , as consumers use up what they bought , particularly if they are managing their budgets , too .
More frugal shoppers could play into Walmart ’ s everyday-low-price hands .
But they may also be tempted to turn to other discounters , such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which are expanding across the U.S .
It was during the recession that these cheap chic grocers got a leg up in Europe and America .
Walmart needs to keep its focus on the competitive pricing to stop hard-pressed customers defecting to them this time around , too .
But even with these potential drawbacks , Walmart is one of the clear winners from the pandemic purchasing habits , alongside Amazon , which has been able to take advantage of consumers ’ need for convenience and rivals ’ reluctance or inability to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also been investing in online and reports later this week , will likely show a similar boost in demand .
It ’ s likely , for instance , that some of those who tried out food shopping via the internet during the pandemic will continue with this way of purchasing .
Digital sales accounted for 4.8 % of U.S. total grocery spending in 2019 , according to GlobalData .
This could increase to 5.9 % in 2020 , a huge jump in just one year .
Walmart still needs to generate a profit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said on Tuesday that it would discontinue Jet.com — while grappling with higher virus-related costs and a possibly moderating level of demand over coming months .
But as other retailers such as department store J.C. Penney fail partly because they lacked digital scale , just having the online prowess to be able to stand up to Amazon is probably good enough right now .


washingtonpost--2020-04-05--Analysis | When Plagues Pass, Labor Gets the Upper Hand

These numbers come from the historian Barbara Tuchman ’ s , “ A Distant Mirror , ” a masterwork on the miseries of Europe in the 14th century .
Published in 1978 , when she thought it reflected the contemporary miseries of the 1970s , it has surged up the Amazon ratings as scholars from all disciplines search the history of pandemics to understand the post-coronavirus future that awaits us .
Pandemics , we discover , have shaped civilization , and there are even arguments that they have ushered in positive change .
The Black Death , which came as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ papal schism , changed attitudes toward religion , leaving Europeans more reluctant to submit to authority .
As Tuchman put it , “ the Black Death may have been the unrecognized beginning of modern man ” — even if the Renaissance , Reformation and Enlightenment were all centuries in the future .
One of the clearest lessons : labor gains in power at the expense of capital .
This might seem too big an extrapolation from one of history ’ s truly extreme events .
The Black Death cut Europe ’ s population @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two years .
Naturally that strengthened the hand of the surviving workers .
No other epidemic has had so great an impact , and neither will this one .
But research just published by the San Francisco Federal Reserve suggests that less damaging pandemics have similar effects .
They looked at a dozen epidemics , from the Black Death through to the H1N1 flu of 2009 , which claimed at least 100,000 lives .
The final death toll of several of these outbreaks was much lower than the current estimates for Covid-19 — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ population more directly .
The academics also re-ran their data excluding the Black Death ( by far the most lethal ) and the Spanish flu of 1918 ( because the Great Depression following barely a decade later might have skewed results ) and found the same picture .
In the decades after a pandemic , real wages in Europe ( for which there is the best continuous data ) invariably increase : These figures are relative to what would have been expected absent the plagues , ( and they are in real terms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices shot up , so higher wages initially only kept up with inflation ) and show that pandemics boost labor for almost four decades .
These gains are at the expense of capital ; shareholders should brace for lower returns than they had been anticipating .
Any look at the headlines should confirm that we could see a replication of these patterns .
Under emergency conditions , governments across Europe are subsidizing wages and paying workers not to work .
Workers who are still required to work while others are social distancing , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accept poor pay and conditions , are becoming much more assertive .
Most famously , workers at Amazon , long subject to complaints about practices at its warehouses , took to the streets to protest being forced to work in close proximity to each other after colleagues had contracted Covid-19 ; and Amazon even responded by making 80,000 new hires .
Another alarming finding from the study is that there is no great recovery to look forward to .
Pandemics are not like wars .
Buildings and machines are not destroyed , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Some European politicians , including Spain ’ s prime minister , already are calling for a “ new Marshall Plan ” that would be “ the greatest mobilization of economic and material resources in history.
” But it may be optimistic to draw a parallel to the Marshall Plan , the enormous program of investment with which the U.S. supported the reconstruction of western Europe after World War II.When the academics looked at real natural interest rates after pandemics and compared them with the impact of wars , they found they had exactly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interest , by their definition , is “ the level of real returns on safe assets which equilibrates savings supply and investment demand—while keeping prices stable—in an economy.
” Greater economic activity will require higher rates , all else being equal , while weaker economic activity will bring with it lower rates .
A remarkable paper published by the Bank of England earlier this year calculated real natural rates back to 1311 , before the Black Death .
The intuition behind this is that there is no shortage of capital that needs to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after a war .
Further , there is probably a tendency to save rather than invest .
When the economy takes a huge hit , many feel the need to save more — and hence consume less , meaning slower economic growth .
There are also important psychological differences .
After a war , traumatic though it was , the winners have the satisfaction of victory , while the losers can bring great intensity to rebuilding and salvaging national honor .
The second half of the 20th century , and the economic rise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and South Korea , shows the possibilities .
After a pandemic , people have literally had the fear of God put in them , and there is no great sense of victory at the end .
Often survivors feel guilty .
Thus consumption and investment patterns can be influenced by post-traumatic stress disorder .
To quote the investment analyst Peter Atwater , of Financial Insyghts : “ We don ’ t recover from trauma ; we adapt to it .
We learn to live with its scars and to move forward amid the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also include greater demands on government , as this generational crisis has shown at least one case where clear direction from the top can be very helpful .
Figures on the political right are already alarmed that the coronavirus era will lead to a “ collectivist temptation ” and a rise in the appeal of left-wing and socialist political movements .
More alarming is the potential for disorder and unrest .
A common thread of pandemics has been an attempt to blame outsiders and foreigners .
Massacres of Jews during the Black Death @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Loss of faith in the church ’ s authority was disorienting , as were workers ’ attempts to assert their rights .
The two centuries after the Plague saw Europe riven by a succession of unnecessary wars .
Revolts by peasants and artisans were common and always ended in brutal suppression .
Like its predecessors , this panic has probably tipped the balance in favor of labor and against capital .
It will intensify distrust in governments while also intensifying the desire for governments to take a more active role in society @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lucky if those conflicts are resolved peacefully .

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washingtonpost--2020-01-25--Analysis | What You Need to Know About China’s Virus Outbreak

The outbreak began in Wuhan , a city of 11 million , in early December .
Additional cases have mostly been seen elsewhere in China but others , involving travelers arriving from there , have also been confirmed in other Asian countries , in Australia , Europe and the U.S. Chinese authorities reported that as of Jan. 25 there were 1,372 confirmed cases in the country and that 41 people had died .
Initially it seemed the virus wasn ’ t transmitted readily between people .
But on Jan. 20 the World Health Organization confirmed that it could be passed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from an animal to a human .
Chinese state media also reported health-care workers had been infected .
Since then , there have been cases reported where the virus has spread along a four-person chain , indicating that it ’ s more easily transmissible than earlier thought .
There is always a concern when a new pathogen emerges in a population because people typically lack immunity to it , and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel coronaviruses ( not seen in humans before ) represent a particular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , like SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
At this stage , the virus , labeled 2019-nCoV by the WHO , appears to be less virulent , and less deadly , than SARS .
A report done for the International Journal of Infectious Diseases found it is at least 70 % similar in its genetic makeup to the SARS virus but “ appears clinically milder ” in terms of severity , fatality rate and transmissibility .
Of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus , at least some were people who already were seriously ill .
Regular pneumonia , a viral , bacterial or fungal infection that inflames the air sacs in one or both lungs , kills about 50,000 people annually in the U.S .
Mainly fever , with some patients experiencing fatigue , a dry cough and difficulty breathing .
Chest X-rays have shown invasive lesions of both lungs , the WHO said .
However , almost all the reported cases so far are those requiring hospitalization .
It ’ s very likely other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or only mild , symptoms .
Many people have recovered and been discharged from the hospital .
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control estimates the incubation period , the time between infection and the onset of symptoms , is around 14 days .
Unlike during the SARS pandemic , when China was criticized for a lack of transparency , it made genomic data about the virus publicly available quickly .
That has enabled scientists anywhere to study the genetic fingerprint of the virus for clues about where and how it might have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the seafood market , where most people infected early in the outbreak either worked or shopped frequently .
It has been closed since Jan. 1 , though cases continued to appear , including in people who hadn ’ t gone there .
That raised the possibility that the pathogen is lurking more widely in the city .
Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered resolute efforts to curb its spread ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday , which fell this year on Jan. 25 and for which many people typically travel .
Authorities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as outbound flights and train services , and nearby municipalities restricted the use of transport and public sites .
Authorities dispatched medical personnel from the military to Wuhan to help out at hospitals struggling to keep up with the inflow of sick patients .
China ’ s health commission took preventive steps typically used for the most-serious ailments , such as cholera and plague .
Patients have been isolated to prevent any spread .
Health officials are also looking for , screening and monitoring people the patients had contact with , and searching @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been treated in medical institutions throughout the city .
Environmental samples from the closed market have been taken for analysis .
Outside China , airports have begun screening some passengers for symptoms , including in the U.S. SARS is thought to have spread indirectly from a “ wildlife reservoir , ” believed to be bats , to humans via masked palm civets and other species in live-animal markets .
The SARS outbreak began in late 2002 in Guangdong province and spread across the border to Hong Kong and beyond .
The WHO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2003 and didn ’ t declare the outbreak contained until July 5 that year .
China ’ s tourism , transportation and retail sectors were heavily hit as people stayed home ; domestic consumption fell sharply , as did real estate prices and financial markets .
The epidemic subtracted an estimated 0.8 percentage point from gross domestic product growth in China in 2003 , according to a China Daily report that cited a National Bureau of Statistics official .
A 2003 academic study estimated the global economic cost at close to $ 40 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
There ’ s growing recognition of the role of coronaviruses in severe cases of pneumonia .
The WHO says that new coronaviruses emerge periodically in different areas globally , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
They tend to morph and mutate a lot , which means the level of risk they pose can change the longer they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .


washingtonpost--2020-02-16--Analysis | OPEC Underestimates China Virus

A comparison of the latest forecasts from the world ’ s three big oil agencies — the International Energy Agency , the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries — highlights the huge uncertainty that exists over the virus ’ s repercussions for oil demand .
As may be expected for a body representing oil producers , OPEC sees the impact as minimal , having just cut its first-quarter forecast for global oil demand by only 400,000 barrels a day .
That looks like wishful thinking .
The IEA ’ s revision is three times as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out , it ’ s deep enough to tip the world into its first year-on-year drop in demand in more than a decade .
China ’ s own oil consumption is down sharply as factories stay closed and travel restrictions remain in place even after the extended Lunar New Year holiday comes to an end .
Congestion on roads in major cities is far below normal levels .
The chart below shows journey times in Shanghai , and other Chinese cities mirror that pattern .
My colleagues at BloombergNEF estimate that China ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by 240,000 barrels a day from pre-virus levels , with departures from Chinese airports down by around 80 % .
Pollution statistics also capture the slowdown in economic activity and fuel use — something that under different circumstances might be reason to celebrate .
China ’ s nitrogen dioxide emissions fell 36 % in the week after the holiday from the same period a year earlier , according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air .
A slowdown of 25 % -50 % across industrial sectors such as oil refining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contributed to the drop , according to the independent research organization .
However , even as the Covid-19 virus hits consumption , the number of very large crude carriers hauling cargoes to China has risen .
That ’ s because independent refiners are taking advantage of the drop in crude prices to fill their storage tanks with cheap cargoes , even as they cut run rates .
That ’ s to some extent cushioning producers now .
But those stockpiles will hit future demand for crude from China ’ s teapot refineries , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus dissipates .
At the same time , the Chinese government is in the process of building and filling a strategic stockpile similar to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve , as it becomes ever more dependent on imported supplies .
It may also be using the price drop to boost purchases for long-term storage , raising the risk that it will cut them again as prices recover , crimping demand for imported oil in the future .
By contrast , China ’ s state-owned processors are seeking to reduce the volumes supplied under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ runs , China is producing more fuel than it needs .
Exports of gasoline and diesel have soared , according to shipping intelligence firm Vortexa .
But they aren ’ t finding ready buyers .
Most of these additional fuel exports are ending up in storage tanks in Singapore amid subdued regional demand .
That brings us back to concerns over just how bad the reverberations from Covid-19 will be .
The China of 2020 is very different to that of 2003 , and so today ’ s epidemic is likely to have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SARS virus to which it is most often compared .
For a start , China ’ s oil consumption now is more than twice what it was when SARS hit and last year the country accounted for more than three-quarters of the growth in global oil demand , according to the IEA .
In the past 17 years , China has also become much more closely linked to the rest of the world economy .
Chinese travelers accounted for about 20 % of total spending on tourism in 2018 , according to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China itself was the fourth most popular destination .
The virus will effect both of those figures in 2020 .
The country has also become the center for producing and exporting both finished goods and components .
“ All the signs are that there has been a major dislocation in global supply chains , ” according to Caroline Bain , chief commodities economist at Capital Economics .
For some products , “ it ’ s only going to get worse in February data.
” Lack of parts from China has already forced Hyundai @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some car production temporarily in South Korea , while Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV plans to do the same in Serbia .
Just-in-time supply chains are starting to show their fragility .
There will be more to come as shipments from Chinese ports continue to suffer delays .
South Korea ’ s government says economic impact from the virus is “ unavoidable.
” The impact won ’ t stop at South Korea .
In that light , OPEC ’ s forecast that global oil demand will be cut by just 440,000 barrels a day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ barrels a day over the year as a whole looks like wishful thinking on the part of producers .
It is doing them no favors , though .
A delay in reducing supplies will only make the cuts needed later even deeper .


washingtonpost--2020-02-16--Analysis | Big Data Won’t Save You From Coronavirus

The medical data emerging from hospitals and clinics around the world are invaluable in determining how this outbreak will evolve — but the picture painted by the information is changing almost as fast as the disease itself , and isn ’ t always of impeccable provenance .
Just as novel infections exploit weaknesses in the body ’ s immune defenses , epidemics have an unnerving habit of spotting the vulnerabilities of the data-driven society we ’ ve built for ourselves .
That ’ s not a comforting thought .
We live in an era where everything seems quantifiable , from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ habits and even our heartbeats .
At a time when people are scared and seeking certainty , it ’ s alarming that the knowledge we have on this most important issue is at best an approximate guide to what ’ s happening .
“ It ’ s so easy these days to capture data on anything , but to make meaning of it is not easy at all , ” said John Carlin , a professor at the University of Melbourne specializing in medical statistics and epidemiology .
“ There ’ s genuinely @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s not what people want to know .
They want to know it ’ s under control.
” That ’ s most visible in the contradictory information we ’ re seeing around how many people have been infected , and what share of them have died .
While those figures are essential for getting a handle on the situation , as we ’ ve argued , they ’ re subject to errors in sampling and measurement that are compounded in high-pressure , strained circumstances .
The physical capacity to do timely testing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for granted either , as my colleague Max Nisen has written .
Early case fatality rates for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome were often 40 % or higher before settling down to figures in the region of 15 % or less .
The age of patients , whether they get sick in the community or in a hospital , and doctors ’ capacity and experience in offering treatment can all affect those numbers dramatically .
Even the way that coronavirus cases are defined and counted has changed several times , said Professor Raina MacIntyre @ @ @ @ @ @ @ South Wales ’ s Biosecurity Research Program : From “ pneumonia of unknown cause ” in the early days , through laboratory-confirmed cases once a virus was identified , to the current standard that includes lung scans .
That ’ s a common phenomenon during outbreaks , she said .
Those problems are exacerbated by the fact that China ’ s government has already shown itself willing to suppress medical information for political reasons .
While you ’ d hope the seriousness of the situation would have changed that instinct , the fact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we know .
While every piece of information is subject to revision and the usual statistical rule of garbage-in , garbage-out , epidemiologists have ways to make better sense of what is going on .
Well-established statistical techniques can be used to clean up messy data .
A study this week by Imperial College London used screening of passengers flying to Japan and Germany to estimate the fatality rate for all cases was about 1 % — below the 2.7 % of confirmed ones found in Hubei province , but higher than the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world .
When studies from different researchers using varying techniques start to converge toward common conclusions , that ’ s also a strong if not faultless indication that we ’ re on the right track .
The number of new infections caused by each coronavirus case has now been identified in the region of 2.2 or 2.3 by several separate studies , for instance — although that number itself can be subject to change as people quarantine themselves and self-segregate to prevent infection .
Google can track my every move and tell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but viruses don ’ t carry phones .
The facts about this disease are hidden in the activity of billions of nanometer-scale particles , spreading through the cells of tens of thousands of humans and the environments we traverse .
Big data can barely scratch the surface of solving that problem .


washingtonpost--2020-02-08--Analysis | When Even a Rich City Is Starved of Funds

Formerly known as Bombay , the capital of the western state of Maharashtra faces a further crunch .
Centered on seven Arabian Sea islands that Portuguese colonizers handed to the British in 1662 , modern Mumbai has expanded into independent India ’ s pulsating trading and financial center , a cosmopolitan agglomeration of 26 million people — twice as populous as business hubs like Hong Kong and Singapore combined .
The birthplace of Bollywood boasts the country ’ s priciest real estate , but the property market is toast , in part because a shadow-banking meltdown choked developers ’ access @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up , Mumbai can ’ t earn much from homeowners or builders .
Up to 34 % of the municipality ’ s recently announced 334 billion-rupee annual budget will rely on compensation .
This was offered in 2017 by the federal government to get state and municipalities to agree to scrap inefficient indirect taxes — in Mumbai ’ s case , a levy on merchandise entering the city for sale — in favor of a nationwide goods and services tax .
GST was a major reform , but awkwardly designed and poorly implemented @ @ @ @ @ @ @ though Modi at least has access to the central bank ’ s printing press .
A bigger challenge has opened up at the subnational level .
As Mumbai real-estate analyst Vishal Bhargava notes , the city ’ s compensation deal ends in 2022 .
Its revenue will fall to what it was a decade ago , only facing higher costs .
The authority is already dipping into reserves to meet pension obligations ; a further income shock will be a disaster .
Every year , Mumbai ’ s creaking infrastructure faces a huge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are the funding constraints that a city of tycoons , bankers and movie stars — who live alongside masses huddled in shantytowns — can allocate only 9 billion rupees of capital expenditure on storm drains , a fifth of what the civic body will spend on employee pensions .
India ’ s richest metropolis opens a window on the crippling lack of basic services in smaller cities , towns and villages where 1.3 billion people live .
New Delhi , the capital , is at least contained in a mini-state , which gives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resource pool , such as taxes on petroleum products .
But New Delhi ’ s air quality is foul .
Chennai , the capital of Tamil Nadu , is running out of water .
Software powerhouse Bangalore , which has lost its entire greenery to urbanization , punishes commuters with the worst traffic congestion in the world .
The solutions are known .
The shallow municipal bond markets must scale up , but that will require cities to adopt internationally acceptable accounting , create own sources of revenue , and bring down endemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ overhauled so that overall tax collection , which Team Modi expects to rise by 12 % next fiscal year , doesn ’ t repeat this year ’ s paltry 4 % increase .
As the pie grows , distribution must also be fair .
A commission that sets the formula for resource-sharing is proposing to leave the states ’ portion broadly unchanged at 41 % .
But as I said , in reality , states are getting less than a third of what New Delhi collects .
A lot of taxation now takes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on education , health and sanitation , kept in full by the federal administration .
A new bargain between different levels of the government must change this .
At 70 % of GDP , India ’ s overall government debt — at all levels — is too high for an investment-grade sovereign .
Without bumping up local capital spending , people ’ s incomes and their ability to pay taxes and fees won ’ t rise fast enough to reduce national debt.Weak national finances will leave India unprepared to deal with climate change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t a big headache for India , at least not yet .
It ’ s the next outbreak that planners must worry about .
Setting aside more money for drains , sewage management and hospitals will better protect citizens and economic assets .
The money circulating in the economy because of municipal-level spending will ease India ’ s fiscal crisis .
Will it happen ?
Take Mumbai again .
Shiv Sena , the homegrown right-wing party in control of the municipal corporation since 1985 , was a long-time ally of Modi ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last year .
It now leads a coalition controlling the entire state .
The Shiv Sena leader , Uddhav Thackeray , has hinted at pulling the plug on a Japanese-funded high-speed train link between Mumbai and Ahmedabad in Modi ’ s home state , Gujarat , which is promoting a Mumbai-rivaling international financial center.For India ’ s fiscal balance to regain its footing , the economics of public spending will have to become more local .
Politics already is .


washingtonpost--2020-05-22--Ecstatic and Terrified, Americans Are Rushing Out of Their Homes

Americans locked at home for more than two months seem resigned to participating in a coronavirus experiment that begins in earnest this Memorial Day weekend , with all 50 states open at least in part .
People are filling resorts , casting aside masks at the mall and weighing the dangers of a meal out .
That freedom could revive an economy that has seen almost 39 million people file for unemployment over the past nine weeks , more than during the whole of the Great Recession .
Matute has moved into his basement in the Bronx out of fear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wife , two daughters and asthmatic mother .
His wife leaves his dinner on the back patio every night , alongside the food bowls for their two cats .
His 3-year-old waves as he retrieves it .
Without a coherent national strategy , Americans are confronting that grim prospect in different ways .
People in hard-hit New York are cautiously stepping out and testing new social norms .
In freewheeling Florida , hotel bookings in the Gulf Coast playground of Destin were down only 22 % in the week ended May 16 compared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to hospitality researcher STR .
In early April , they were down 84 % .
Kelly ended takeout service at her soul-food restaurant early in the lock-down after customers failed to follow social-distancing measures .
She lost a month of revenue before she resumed May 1 , and business has been brisk enough that she put up a sign asking customers to be patient .
Kelly admits only a limited number of people , and only if they ’ re wearing a mask .
Those who aren ’ t can pay $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ order curb-side delivery from their cars .
Restaurants in Lake County were allowed to start reopening for dine-in service from May 18 , but Kelly plans to wait another two weeks to take that step .
Other proprietors have eagerly welcomed all patrons desperately fleeing their homes .
“ They were so excited to be out at a restaurant and out in the world doing things , ” said Christy Hackinson , who owns The Alley on Main restaurant in Murfreesboro , Tennessee .
“ Mainly what we heard from people was : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , for giving us a place to go.
” In North Myrtle Beach , South Carolina , Amy Howie was livid at not being allowed to reopen her Papillon Salon even as salons in Georgia snipped and curled — and South Carolina reopened its beaches .
But when the governor opened salons May 18 she was “ shocked ” that the state issued only voluntary guidelines .
Among them , staff “ should strongly consider ” wearing a face mask .
Howie ’ s going further and taking people ’ s temperature at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just interesting to see how some people are over it and ready to get back to life , and luckily some of the states are allowing us to do just that , ” she said .
“ The mask-wearing is how we were gauging people ’ s comfort .
When we first opened up , 90 % of people who came into the store had masks on .
Now it ’ s less than 25 % .
” In fact , Alabamians appear to be embracing reopening as much as anyone , by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % fewer dine-in customers than they were a year ago , according to the OpenTable booking service .
However , compare that with the 100 % decline a few weeks ago .
Only Oklahoma and South Carolina have recaptured more dine-in business among 37 states and Washington , D.C. , according to the company .
That ’ s one reason she ’ s reopened only two for dine-in service : Hugo ’ s , a Mexican spot named after her husband , and an American bistro called Backstreet Café .
She ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sanitation stations and has trained them on distancing .
All employees will have to test negative for the virus .
She ’ s also placing masks at the entrance for patrons and asking them to wear them while walking to their tables or to the restroom .
She and her husband , a lawyer , bought the 30-year-old bookstore in February and watched sales nosedive with California ’ s shut-down .
Sales are 25 % of what they were before the virus hit , despite surging online orders .
The couple also owns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ street .
It has fared better in part because quarantined people are devouring puzzles .


washingtonpost--2020-05-24--Analysis | The World’s Smartest Oil Traders Have Taken to the Seas

Ships full of crude have been forced to anchor off the coasts of the U.S. , China , Europe and elsewhere , as refiners have cut back processing and onshore storage tanks have been filled to near capacity .
All over the world , tankers are being used to store oil instead .
The reasons for most of this expensive excess storage is obvious : the global supply glut .
But there ’ s something else at play here too as some of the world ’ s smartest oil traders have filled up tankers to take advantage once crude prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of oil are vast .
Tankers carrying enough crude to satisfy 20 % of the world ’ s daily consumption gathered off California ’ s coast in April with nowhere to go .
Most are still there .
At Durban , 800 miles to the east of Saldanha Bay , six giant Suezmax tankers , each holding about 1 million barrels of crude , have been anchored for up to six weeks .
More tankers have amassed off Africa ’ s northwest corner , around the entrance to the Mediterranean Sea , after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Italy all cut runs or shuttered refineries .
The vessels now off Saldanha Bay began to arrive in early April , carrying crude from Nigeria , Angola and the Republic of Congo .
They have been joined over the past two weeks by four more ships , each of which loaded a similar volume of crude in the U.S. Gulf Coast .
The area near Africa ’ s southern tip has always been a favorite place to hold cargoes of West African crude awaiting buyers in far-flung parts of the world .
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where piracy has increased .
It also gives owners the choice to send cargoes to either Asia or Europe , depending on where the most profitable opportunities arise .
Several of the vessels off South Africa were chartered by leading oil-trading companies , including Vitol Group , the world ’ s biggest independent oil trader ; Glencore Plc , through its ST Shipping subsidiary ; and Mecuria Energy Group Ltd. , according to fixture data compiled by Bloomberg .
The presence of such big-name traders suggests that these aren ’ t all just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but are also the visible parts of trading strategies aimed at making the most of the first signs of a recovery in global oil demand .
As I said above , the presence of many of these tankers can be explained by full onshore storage tanks , slower discharging operations and reduced refinery runs .
But others will be the result of so-called contango plays , where traders buy cheap crude on the physical market and sell forward contracts to lock in a profit .
Some are probably just waiting for prices @ @ @ @ @ @ @ profitable .
The eventual unloading of all of these floating supplies will have a significant bearing on the oil price .
The gradual drawing down of the huge offshore stockpiles owned by refiners will help keep a lid on prices .
But those held by canny traders will be sold whenever and wherever they are most profitable , and that will keep prices volatile .


washingtonpost--2020-05-22--Analysis | Memorial Day Oil Market Asks ‘Are We There Yet?’

We are a month or so on from the existential angst of negative crude oil futures , and while optimism hasn ’ t quite flooded back in , the market is definitely chirpier .
That ’ s mostly due to falling supply .
April ’ s price plunge was due to oil production not being able to switch off as quickly as demand did in response to Covid-19 .
This month , however , OPEC+ production cuts kicked in .
The cream , however , is what looks like a much faster drop in shale output than expected , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also shut in wells .
Supply is only one half of the recovery equation , though .
Pushing in fewer barrels at one end of the pipe is a must , but the oil glut only clears if more ultimately flows out the other end into cars , trucks , planes and the rest .
On demand , it ’ s clear we ’ re on the road to recovery , but the map ’ s offline and the ETA is unknown .
Before China put off giving a GDP forecast , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil bulls , with congestion in some cities now actually higher , year over year .
Globally , too , traffic is creeping back up , although it remains about 20 % -40 % below year-ago levels in most regions , according to estimates released Friday by Rystad Energy , a consultancy .
America ’ s oil inventories tell the story .
The latest data , for the week ending May 15 , gave with one hand and took with the other .
Crude oil stocks , excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the bulls certainly like that .
But crude oil is essentially useless ; it has to be refined into products .
And stocks of three big ones — gasoline , distillate and jet fuel — increased by more than five million barrels .
Gasoline , oil ’ s official sponsor of Memorial Day , actually snapped a streak of declines with an unexpected increase , despite refineries producing less of it .
This makes sense .
Refiners have been buying crude oil at low prices in anticipation of demand recovering ; the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to store barrels .
That demand , combined with supply cuts , has helped to push crude prices back up .
However , those higher crude prices ding refining margins .
The spread between gasoline and crude oil prices right now is around $ 10.50 a barrel , less than half the average for the Friday before Memorial Day over the past five years .
Ultimately , for May ’ s recovery to continue gaining strength , those margins have to improve , or refiners will ease off buying more barrels .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ refined products , but we would be back to crude oil inventories increasing again , all else equal .
It ’ s worth pausing on the fact that virtually all of this week ’ s rally in crude prices took place on Monday , when Moderna Inc. ’ s release of ultra-preliminary vaccine testing data touched off a buying frenzy in virtually everything other than Treasuries .
Like most of us , the oil market yearns for a return to normality and , at this point , is apt to lose it at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supply helps , then demand must ultimately provide the cure .
Producers are doing their part ( and long-dated prices are telling them to stick with it ) .
Now , drivers , it ’ s over to you .
Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy , mining and commodities .
He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal ’ s Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times ’ Lex column .
He was also an investment banker .


washingtonpost--2020-04-23--Analysis | What an Oil ETF Has to Do With Plunging Oil Prices

It grew so huge so quickly that it became a sizable player in the market for West Texas Intermediate , the U.S. benchmark for crude .
Investors piled in during March and April , convinced that oil prices that had been falling -- pushed down by a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that boosted production just as demand was slashed by pandemic-driven lockdowns -- would eventually recover once economies reopened .
At different stages , the fund held about a quarter of all May and June contracts for WTI .
Unlike shares that can be held as long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have finite terms and are agreements to buy or sell a physical product .
The May futures contract , for example , expired on April 21 .
Any holder who had not sold by then would need to take delivery of the oil -- 1,000 U.S. barrels , or 42,000 gallons , for each contract .
As a favored investment vehicle for many bullish speculators , the number of shares in the fund ballooned from 145 million at the end of February to more than 1.4 billion by mid-April .
Its outsized portion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ -- came at a time when demand for physical oil was cratering and storage space was becoming harder and more expensive to find .
For years , USO was mandated to invest in the most-active WTI contract and to roll it over to the following contract .
( Rolling over means selling it and , often simultaneously , buying the following month ’ s contract . )
The flood of money into May contracts earlier had pushed oil prices up ; as USO sold its May futures as part of the rollover and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fell for May and rose for the following months , opening an unusually wide spread .
Only a handful of traders remained in the May contract on Monday , when prices plunged well below zero .
With USO holding a significant level of June contracts , there are concerns that prices will go negative again and that the whole process might repeat -- or might be worse , if the April 20th debacle scares off more investors .
To try to mitigate the prospect , USO , which lost 37 % of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ April , has moved to allocate some holdings to contracts expiring later in the year , since those prices tend to be less volatile .
But the fund is adding to pressure on oil prices in other ways .
There was so much demand for USO that it exhausted the number of shares it was allowed to issue and , on April 20 , asked regulators for permission to register an additional 4 billion , more than double the existing number .
Until the new shares are cleared for issuance , the ETF @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to analysts , potentially adding to pressure on crude prices .
Without new oil contracts , the fund will also become untethered from the prices it ’ s supposed to track .
ETF prices are kept in sync with the value of their holdings , their so-called NAV ( net-asset value ) , through the creation and redemption of shares .
So-called “ authorized participants ” for instance sell an ETF when it ’ s rising and buy the underlying security to pocket a quick profit , keeping the fund ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ process .
However , with the authorized participants no longer able to create shares , that ’ s disrupted demand for the underlying contracts .
USO is hardly the only exchange-traded fund to be hammered by the swings in oil futures ; the effects were felt around the globe .
The Samsung S & P GSCI Crude Oil ER Futures ETF , whose holdings of the derivatives slumped 26 % on Tuesday to $ 378 million , saw its traded units lose half their value for a time Wednesday .
Closing down 46 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ETF had its biggest drop and lowest finish since trading began in May 2016. Credit Suisse Group AG told investors in a leveraged exchange-traded note that tracks the price of oil they probably won ’ t get any money back after the value of the note dropped below zero .


washingtonpost--2020-03-31--Analysis | Private Equity Can’t Just Hide Out in a Wooded Bungalow

But once in a while , a high-profile unicorn hunter can blow the lid off that opaque world , giving us a glimpse of just how much pain private equity is in .
Sometimes , private kitchens churn out terrible dishes , too .
Investors are fleeing as SoftBank Group Corp. , which runs the $ 100 billion Vision Fund , scrambles to shore up its balance sheet , as well as those of its portfolio companies .
SoftBank gives a good feel for the landscape , because it behaves more like a private equity firm than an angel investor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and it likes to invest in rivals and force them to merge .
SoftBank is seeking to raise billions to support its unicorns battered by the coronavirus outbreak , saving those that still show potential and cutting loose the ones that bleed too much cash .
On the one hand , it ’ s in talks to lead a fresh $ 100 million funding round for Plenty Inc. , perhaps because the indoor farming startup can benefit from panic buying of fresh produce .
On the other , OneWeb , a satellite operator @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s desperate scramble must resonate with many private equity firms out there , whose portfolio companies will inevitably need their patrons ’ help .
By early March , industry titans Blackstone Group Inc. and Carlyle Group Inc. already urged businesses they ’ ve invested in to do whatever it takes to stave off a credit crunch .
But with blue chips drawing at least $ 124 billion from their credit lines in the first three weeks of March , and dollar funding this tight , will lenders have the bandwidth to aid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bigger deals to digest : They ’ ll need to come up with $ 23 billion of loans soon for T-Mobile USA Inc. to close its merger with Sprint Corp. Granted , for private equity firms , cash levels are at a record high .
Last year , capital committed to this sector grew 20 % to $ 1.3 trillion , estimates Pitchbook , a Morningstar company .
But instead of buying new assets , firms may have to earmark a good chunk of that money for existing investments , either recapitalizing — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ case WeWork — or leading unplanned funding rounds .
Meanwhile , making capital calls to investors can ’ t be much fun right now .
Even the best of them — pension funds and sovereign wealth funds — are dealing with their own crises and may not want to pick up your calls right away , especially if it means selling other assets at deep discounts just to come up with your money .
Plus , we now all have the convenient excuse of working from home : Some of us are hiding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , away from the raging virus , and may not have good cellphone reception .
Just look at SoftBank .
As of December , only about 75 % of the Vision Fund ’ s committed capital is with the fund , and the company still needs to call $ 17.5 billion from third-party investors , its latest filing shows .
Since then , Saudi Arabia , a major investor , has started an oil price war , further diminishing its fiscal power .
So forget about Vision Fund 2 ; founder Masayoshi @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In the last decade , private equity firms piled vast amount of debt onto their portfolio companies to boost returns .
More than 75 % of deals in the sector included debt multiples greater than six times Ebitda in 2019 , compared with 25 % after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. , according to Pitchbook .
When liquidity recedes , these investments are in trouble .
To make matters worse , portfolio companies ’ ability to service debt is even worse than it looks on paper , because Wall Street @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make purchase prices look more reasonable , and so underwriters can originate more loans and earn more fees .
In 2016 , businesses involved in a merger or leveraged buyout missed their own earnings projections by an average of 35 % in the first year after the deal , Bloomberg Businessweek reported in December .
So imagine the coronavirus world , where any prior earnings projections feel as outdated as “ Sex and the City ” stars prancing around Central Park in Manolo Blahniks .
Just as social distancing is becoming the norm @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The global rate could climb to 16.1 % if the pandemic brings economic conditions that mirror the Great Recession , Moody ’ s Investors Services warned last week .
In private equity , fancy terms like total addressable market or adjusted Ebitda are often used to make a company look more profitable than it is .
But the coronavirus is unraveling all that .
Just like the rest of world , private markets are also suffering .
Ray Dalio ’ s “ cash is trash ” motto is so yesterday .


washingtonpost--2020-01-21--Analysis | Why China’s Mystery Illness Is Reviving Fears of SARS

There is always a concern when a new pathogen emerges in a population because people typically lack immunity to it , and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel coronaviruses ( not seen in humans before ) represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , like SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
The outbreak in Wuhan , a city of 11 million , that began in mid-December appears severe .
A few cases have been confirmed elsewhere @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arriving from Wuhan .
Initially it seemed the virus wasn ’ t transmitted readily between people , reducing the potential of it spawning a SARS-like outbreak .
But on Jan. 20 the World Health Organization confirmed “ some limited human-to-human transmission , ” not just from animals to humans .
Chinese state media also reported health-care workers had been infected .
That put the Wuhan virus in a category similar to SARS .
“ The one good factor , I guess , at the moment seems to be the low mortality rate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of medicine at the Australian National University .
At this stage , it appears to be less virulent , and less deadly , than SARS .
Of the first handful of deaths linked to the virus , at least some were people who already were seriously ill .
Regular pneumonia kills about 50,000 people annually in the U.S .
Mainly fever , with some patients experiencing fatigue , a dry cough and difficulty breathing .
Chest X-rays have shown invasive lesions of both lungs , the WHO said .
However , only cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s possible other people have been infected and experienced no , or only mild , symptoms .
Many people have recovered and been discharged from the hospital .
Chinese authorities identified a novel coronavirus in one of the pneumonia patients in Wuhan after conducting gene sequencing .
The WHO has labeled the new virus 2019-nCoV .
A report done for the International Journal of Infectious Diseases found it is at least 70 % similar in its genetic makeup to the SARS virus , but “ appears clinically milder ” in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transmissibility .
Genomic data was made publicly available in mid-January , enabling scientists anywhere to study its genetic fingerprint for clues about where and how it might have emerged .
Investigators in Wuhan have focused on the wholesale market , where most people infected early in the outbreak either worked or shopped frequently .
It has been closed since Jan. 1 , though cases continued to appear , including in people who hadn ’ t gone to the fish market .
That raised the possibility that the pathogen is lurking more widely in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ HIV , for example , wasn ’ t discovered as the cause of AIDS for years .
In the case of SARS , many of China ’ s top doctors were initially adamant they were dealing with pneumonia caused by chlamydia , a sexually transmissible bacterium .
China fired its then health minister , Zhang Wenkang , for mishandling that crisis .
Wuhan houses China ’ s first maximum bio-containment laboratory , built in 2015 to investigate the planet ’ s most dangerous pathogens , so it ’ s well placed for the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ordered resolute efforts to curb its spread ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday , when many people travel .
Airports have begun screening some passengers for symptoms , including in the U.S. China ’ s health commission decided to include the coronavirus in the Class B infectious diseases category , which includes SARS , while taking preventive steps typically used for the most-serious ailments , such as cholera and plague .
Patients have been isolated to prevent any spread .
Health officials are also looking for , screening and monitoring people the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for current and past cases that may have been treated in medical institutions throughout the city .
Environmental samples from the closed market have been taken for analysis .
There are parallels .
Both viruses emerged in China .
SARS is thought to have spread indirectly from a “ wildlife reservoir , ” believed to be bats , to humans via masked palm civets and other species in live-animal markets .
The SARS outbreak began in late 2002 in Guangdong province and spread across the border to Hong Kong and beyond .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ March and didn ’ t declare the outbreak contained until July 5 .
China ’ s tourism , transportation and retail sectors were heavily hit as people stayed home ; domestic consumption fell sharply , as did real estate prices and financial markets .
The epidemic subtracted an estimated 0.8 percentage point from gross domestic product growth in China in 2003 , according to a China Daily report that cited a National Bureau of Statistics official .
A 2003 academic study estimated the global economic cost at close to $ 40 billion or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ family of them , with some causing less-severe diseases , some more .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
There ’ s growing recognition of the role of coronaviruses in cases of severe pneumonia .
The WHO says that new ones emerge periodically in different areas globally , and several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that haven ’ t infected humans .
They tend to morph and mutate a lot , which means the level of risk they pose can change the longer they circulate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .


washingtonpost--2020-01-21--Analysis | The Next Pandemic Will Come. Here’s How to Prepare

For one thing ’ s certain : the next pandemic will come , and it may resemble the Spanish flu of 1918 , which infected half a billion people .
The questions are when , where and how , and whether we ’ ll be ready collectively .
I say “ collectively ” because a pandemic , like climate change , doesn ’ t respect passports or borders .
We don ’ t quarantine , cure or save America First , or China First or anybody first ; we either put humanity first or we all lose .
There are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( and , to be clear , the current outbreak is still far from being one ) .
The main connection is that global warming actually creates new disease vectors .
As the permafrost thaws in places like Siberia , viruses that have been frozen for millennia , and against which animals and humans no longer have any resistance , will resurface .
And as desertification and other side effects of warming move the boundaries between habitats , species will come into contact with creatures they ’ ve never encountered before .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
What , then , are my lessons from the SARS outbreak ?
First , that we must plan for human nature , both in its perfidy and its heroism .
I observed SARS crash into various cultures in totally different ways .
Mainland China at first suppressed information about it , fearing economic loss or political turmoil .
But that allowed the virus to spread farther and faster for longer than was necessary .
And once China did open up on the subject , its people no longer trusted the government ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prevailed over facts , hampering the official response .
Singapore , by contrast , lived up to its reputation for iron discipline with immediate quarantines that I initially considered draconian and illiberal , but came reluctantly to respect .
Taiwan initially showed the darker side of individualism , as some hospital workers , to protect themselves and their families , shirked their duties .
In Hong Kong ( and then Taiwan and other places too ) the opposite happened , as nurses and doctors cared for the victims and valiantly fought the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Camus ’ “ The Plague ” or Jose Saramago ’ s “ Blindness ” should be surprised that human beings , individually and in crowds , will respond unpredictably to such crises .
Some will hoard scarce medicine or food that ’ s more urgently needed by others .
Some will break quarantines to be with loved ones .
Some will do their duty , others won ’ t .
The biggest lesson , which China seems to have learned , is that the government must be ruthlessly honest and transparent .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ nothing .
It was my trust in that Hong Kong website that eventually made me believe SARS was waning .
Once trust between the population and the state breaks down , controlling an outbreak becomes almost impossible .
Another lesson is , thankfully , one we ’ ve already learned .
Screening and surveillance , which should usually be used with caution in free societies , becomes necessary in an outbreak and is effective .
Even now various airports around the world are digitally observing the body temperatures of passengers arriving from Wuhan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Quarantine should be voluntary at first and actively encouraged by employers and government .
Whoever can work from home , via Skype and such , should do so , without fearing recrimination .
The more people can keep acting on their own volition , the more “ agency ” they believe they have , the calmer and more cooperative they will remain .
Once an outbreak goes out of control , of course , quarantines must become mandatory .
But the most profound lesson is that we must cooperate as a species @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to have gone out of fashion : multilateralism .
We ’ ve always been locked in an arms race between the evolution of viruses , bacteria and fungi and our medicines against them .
When a new virus appears , it potentially threatens all of us and should be fought by all of us together .
That means a new bug ’ s genome , wherever it ’ s first collected , should be sequenced and immediately made available , like open-source computer code , to certified researchers everywhere .
( You still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such body to accredit the boffins , lest the genome gets into the hands of terrorists ) .
All labs and scientists should then share their insights with the entire profession .
The bad news is that we can not be sure that humans will rise to global threats such as climate change or pandemics , because we ’ re so prone to put what we perceive to be our own interests , or our nations ’ , first , only to suffer the consequences later .
The good news — and this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — is that every time we do join together to defeat a new threat , we ’ re reminded how much we have in common , and fight better the next time .


washingtonpost--2020-02-10--Analysis | Why Hong Kong Is Still Protesting and Where It May Go: QuickTake

Yes , but officially it ’ s a “ special administrative region.
” The city of 7.5 million people was an outpost of the British Empire for 156 years , during which time it developed into a global business hub .
In a 1984 joint declaration , the British agreed to give it back in 1997 and China promised to allow a “ high degree of autonomy ” for 50 years -- until 2047 -- including guarantees of free speech and a free press , capitalist markets and English common law under a “ one country , two systems ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in February 2019 , was suspended in June but Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam waited another two months to formally withdraw it .
During that time , the list of grievances grew along with calls for Lam ’ s resignation .
Many protesters chant the motto : “ Five demands , not one less !
” Those are : • The entire subway network closed for a day in October ( the first time since a railway merger in 2007 ) after a night of rampages followed a government decision to ban @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The ban was widely ignored , overturned in court and is now going through an appeals process . )
The Lunar New Year holiday and the spread of a new coronavirus from China put a damper on major protests , but activists say they expect dissatisfaction with the government ’ s response to the epidemic to fuel their movement .
New trade unions that grew out of the protests have added to pressure on the government .
Xi has consistently backed Lam ’ s leadership .
But in January , China ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ousted and replaced with Luo Huining , a Communist Party stalwart with a reputation as an enforcer , in a possible sign of growing frustration with the situation .
Xi again expressed concern for Hong Kong in his New Year ’ s address .
Earlier he talked about “ radical violent crimes ” that “ have seriously trampled on the rule of law and social order , seriously undermined Hong Kong ’ s prosperity and stability , and seriously challenged the bottom line ” of ‘ one country , two systems.
’ Chinese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and compared them to Islamic State .
They also have made charges of foreign interference , describing the U.S. as a “ black hand ” behind the protests -- a claim the State Department has dismissed as “ ridiculous.
” China ’ s Communist Party has signaled even more intervention in everything from education to the chief executive ’ s appointment , but hasn ’ t detailed specific measures .
“ Violence is destroying Hong Kong , ” Lam said in October when she invoked the emergency law -- while insisting there was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ accepted blame for the unrest , but rejected calls to resign .
Lam also has ruled out a blanket amnesty -- “ you have to take the consequences after breaking the law ” -- and says complaints about police conduct should be handled by an existing commission ( United Nations reports have questioned its investigative powers and independence , and a panel of international advisers withdrew in December , citing similar concerns ) .
Lam has said “ different constraints and circumstances ” prevented her from addressing “ all the grievances of people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Troops from its People ’ s Liberation Army have been in the city since the 1997 handover , but have played a minimal role .
Concern has grown that soldiers might be called on to restore order , especially after the garrison posted a video in August showing Chinese troops practicing riot control .
Neither the Ministry of National Defense nor the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office in Beijing have ruled it out .
For some people , the greatest fear is of a crackdown mirroring the deadly one three decades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Square .
That concern is followed by worries of a withdrawal by the U.S. of the special status under which it agreed to treat Hong Kong as distinct from China for trade and economic matters .
To the dismay of China ’ s leaders , President Donald Trump signed a bill into law expressing U.S. support for the protesters in November .
Yes , and the coronavirus outbreak is making it even worse .
The economy was already under pressure from the U.S.-China trade war , and the government is forecasting the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are staying away in droves -- arrivals were down 56 % in November compared with the same month in 2018 .
Hotel occupancy rates are way down too .
Sales in the retail sector have been tumbling for months , down about a quarter year on year in November after a record drop in October .
Sentiment among small businesses and purchasing managers were close to record lows , while the real estate and financial services sectors have remained fairly resilient .
Canceled events include a major airline conference , the WTA Hong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fireworks , parades , a motor race and a one-month run of “ Matilda The Musical.
” Hong Kong Disneyland has also suffered .
The epidemic has led to more cancellations , including the annual Art Basel Hong Kong show .
Yes , but less so lately .
In 2003 demonstrations blocked a proposed national security law and contributed to the resignation of then-Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa .
Nine years later , high school students and parents ’ and teachers ’ groups thwarted the Hong Kong government ’ s attempt to introduce a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ democracy .
But the pro-democracy movement fractured after the government successfully faced down student-led demonstrators who occupied city streets for 79 days in 2014 to demand more democracy .
Since then , China has barred some activists from seeking elected office , prosecuted protest leaders and banned a pro-independence political party .
Lam cited the case of a Hong Kong man suspected of murder in Taiwan in proposing it .
Opponents said it could open the door for anyone who runs afoul of the Chinese government -- including political dissidents , civil rights @ @ @ @ @ @ @ -- to be arrested on trumped-up charges in Hong Kong and sent to the mainland .
There they would face what the U.S. State Department called China ’ s “ capricious legal system.
” Critics noted the draft bill assigned to the city ’ s chief executive -- chosen by a committee stacked with Chinese government supporters -- the leading role in handling extradition requests ; currently the legislature can block extraditions .
Hong Kong still has to enact national security legislation .
Lam has said she wants to create a “ favorable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hong Kong is also considering making disrespecting the Chinese national anthem a crime , with prison sentences of as long as three years .
And there were protests in 2018 after Lam outlined a project to build artificial islands between Hong Kong island and Lantau to the west .
Detractors object to the huge cost and environmental impact .
The islands would help accommodate a continuing influx of mainland Chinese , whom many Hong Kong residents blame for sky-high property prices and overcrowded public hospitals -- exacerbating anti-Beijing sentiment .


washingtonpost--2020-04-28--U.S. Covid-19 Deaths Top Lives Lost in Vietnam War: Virus Update

As part of the city-state ’ s strategy to bring down infections in the weeks to come , the government @ @ @ @ @ doubled its daily testing capacity since early April even as the number of cases .
@ @ @ @ @ success in containing the spread , Singapore now has Asia ’ s highest number of @ @ @ @ @ India .
Much of the surge in infections has been driven by hundreds of new @ @ @ @ @ dorms .


washingtonpost--2020-04-28--Analysis | Brazil Hits a Wall and Takes Latin America With It

Looking at the continent as a whole , the picture looks even bleaker , with much of the rest of the region following a similar trajectory since the first few years of the century .
Initially , power shifts alarmed the rest of the world , as Mexico ’ s electors booted out the Institutional Revolutionary Party in 2000 after 71 years in power , ushering in a period of intractable political deadlock ; the opposition in Venezuela staged an unsuccessful coup against President Hugo Chavez ; and Argentina abandoned its one-to-one peg with the dollar in 2001 and subsequently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There were two broad factors behind the earlier surge .
First , the rest of the world moved in Latin America ’ s favor .
With China growing and demanding more raw materials , the region ’ s mining-based economies boomed .
The U.S. looked the other way as Latin American migrant populations established themselves and sent remittances home .
And global financial markets directed a fire hose of money at the region .
Currency “ carry traders ” looked to borrow in Japanese yen and park in currencies with high interest rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The growing vogue for passive investing and exchange-traded funds led many investors to buy “ emerging markets ” of BRIC ( Brazil , Russia , India and China ) funds to cash in on growth in China — and in the process shower cash into the small and relatively illiquid stock markets of Brazil and the rest of the region .
Prices shot up .
Secondly , the politicians proved to international investors that they could be trusted .
Lula turned out to be a market-friendly pragmatist in office .
Mexico left the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of U.S.-trained economists who balanced the books and vanquished inflation , even if they failed to stimulate much growth .
Peace came to Colombia .
With the significant exception of Venezuela , the region turned out to be far better governed than had been feared .
Now , those favorable conditions have been turned on their head by the coronavirus , which has cruelly exposed weak political leadership .
In 2018 , Brazil and Mexico elected populists as president — Jair Bolsonaro , a right-wing nationalist in Brazil , who was initially well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Manuel Lopez Obrador ( known by his initials of Amlo ) , a veteran left-winger in Mexico , who initially prompted a market sell-off .
Bolsonaro delivered on pension reforms that many saw as crucial to solving Brazil ’ s deep-seated fiscal problems , while Amlo proved to be much more pragmatic and fiscally conservative when in power than feared .
But the pandemic has been a disaster for both of them .
Total reported cases in Latin America are still below the total for New York state , but across the region @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exponential growth .
There is no sign of curve-flattening : In Mexico , Amlo also stayed remarkably relaxed about the pandemic , mixing with people at rallies and exhibiting pictures of saints as a protection against the disease .
He has now upended all expectations by refusing to go along with fiscal expansion , and even cutting back public spending — including public sector Christmas bonuses — in the face of the pandemic .
Other countries in the region have spent money as aggressively as they could , with Peru ’ s fiscal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Amlo has erred in the exact opposite direction to the market ’ s fears before his election .
And so , confidence in the basic judgment of both Latin America ’ s leading populist presidents is now dangerously weakened .
Meanwhile , global economic conditions that raised the continent two decades ago now conspire against it .
The virus ’ s effect on demand for raw materials is acute , particularly for the major oil producers in the region .
Across Latin America , inflation has come under control , but at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a dose of secular stagnation .
Investors are now fleeing emerging markets , often leading to big sales of Latin American stocks and bonds by passive players .
Low interest rates mean that the region ’ s currencies are no longer attractive to carry traders , and so they have sold off drastically .
Brazil ’ s real is at an all-time low .
Once inflation is taken into account , the decline of the Mexican peso has been even more severe : Both Brazil and Mexico also suffer from an Achilles heel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil producer which is a public company , and Pemex , the nationalized Mexican oil producer , are bedeviled by corruption , and have been grievously hit by the slumping oil price .
That , in turn , has damaged the perceived creditworthiness of the underlying sovereigns .
Weakening currencies make this worse .
Mexico ’ s risk of default is now seen to be higher than at any time since 2008 ; Brazil ’ s default risk is even higher .
Could Latin America be about to provide another epic buying opportunity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ misfortune to be treated almost as a derivative of growth in the rest of the world , outperforming on the way up , and crashing when the rest of the world is slowing down .
And if we compare prices to trailing earnings and to book value , the region looks as cheap as it did 20 years ago : The problem is that value needs a catalyst before it can be realized .
Two decades ago , that came from new leadership , and from the extraordinary growth of China .
Now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in their respective terms , while China is retrenching .
They also have to face the Covid test , which many investors currently believe they will fail .
Should these leaders deal with the pandemic better than many now fear , while the world recovers into the end of the year and the oil price recovers enough to relieve the pressure on the region ’ s oil producers , then there is every reason to hope that Latin American investments will outperform .
But all of these things need to happen first .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ will not be the spectacular buying opportunity presented all those years ago by Lula .


washingtonpost--2020-02-01--Analysis | Airlines Aren’t About to Succumb to the Coronavirus

Such an outcome would provoke some schadenfreude at Qantas , the best-performing full-service carrier in a Bloomberg index of Asia-Pacific airlines over the past year .
At the same time , it ’ s hard to point to any major company that ’ s plausibly close to the edge .
While the aviation industry is perpetually teetering on the edge of profitability , one of the main reasons is that so many carriers are controlled by indulgent shareholders who will go to extraordinary lengths to see their businesses through rough patches .
The impact of the epidemic is likely to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ caused Asia-Pacific carriers to lose $ 6 billion in revenue and 8 % of their traffic , according to the International Air Transport Association .
At the same time , it will probably be short , too .
As we ’ ve written , coronaviruses are winter diseases that should be well and truly in retreat by late spring .
Should control measures now being implemented prove effective , recovery could be under way even sooner .
If SARS is any guide , that will trigger a surge of pent-up demand from leisure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s the fact that people around the world don ’ t just decide to stop travelling because there ’ s a virus outbreak in China .
Indeed , the more likely response in many countries will be to encourage tourists to stay closer to home .
That may benefit airlines ’ domestic aviation businesses , which tend to be more profitable than longer-haul international arms .
China ’ s market has remained frustratingly closed .
Right now , that may be a blessing .
About two-thirds of the passenger traffic beginning or ending @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carriers or Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd .
The remaining traffic with a Chinese leg represents only about 5.7 % of the global market , so only the most China-exposed operators are likely to see a material shock .
Some airlines are clearly more vulnerable than others .
Thailand , a major destination for Chinese tourists , is home to four struggling carriers where fierce competition has driven passenger revenue below operating costs , causing the listed industry to lose about three-quarters of its market capitalization in the past three-and-a-half years .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to pay their interest expenses out of income and only Thai Airways International Pcl can boast positive free cash flow , other factors may support them .
Bangkok Airways Pcl was founded and is controlled by Prasert Prasarttong-Osoth , who may do quite well over the next few months since his fortune is based on operating private hospitals .
Nok Airlines Pcl has a similar relationship with the Jurangkool auto-parts dynasty , and had already been acquiring fresh loans and capital infusions to keep its planes in the air .
Thai Airways , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year , is majority-owned by the government , while Asia Aviation Pcl is the local arm of the AirAsia Bhd empire , so should be able to count on similar support from head office .
There ’ s no shortage of forgiving shareholders among cash-strapped airlines elsewhere in the region .
PT Garuda Indonesia is , like Thai Airways , controlled by the government ; PAL Holdings Inc. by Philippines billionaire Lucio Tan .
Asiana Airlines Inc. and Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd. have been struggling for years , but the former was bailed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in December while the latter has a long history of being supported by offshore airlines interested in keeping Qantas on the backfoot in its home market .
It ’ s a similar picture in China itself , which will take the brunt of the impact .
Only Air China Ltd. has been consistently racking up positive free cash flow of late , but every major listed carrier has ample interest coverage so shouldn ’ t be fearing imminent talks with creditors .
Those that are state-owned enterprises will be able to count on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Airlines Holding Co. , which isn ’ t exactly , is already being looked after as part of the multi-year workout of the buying spree that its controlling shareholder HNA Group Co. went on in the middle part of the last decade .
Cathay , for its part , has endured an annus horribilis but has for generations been a favorite child of its largest shareholder Swire Pacific Ltd. Like Virgin Australia , it has enough deep-pocketed owners to see it through a rough patch .
That doesn ’ t mean that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ struggle over the months ahead .
Still , the dream scenario for Qantas — where competitors go under and take some capacity out of Asia ’ s fiercely competitive market — may remain just that : a dream .


washingtonpost--2020-06-16--Analysis | Celebrate Oxford Covid Drug News, But Not With Travel Stocks

The result comes with caveats .
Researchers have only disclosed a limited press release ’ s worth of data at this point and should make haste to publish more details .
Until then , some caution is warranted .
But the fact that dexamethasone appears to show promise is encouraging and its sheer affordability could help it save lives .
In fact , it ’ s already gained approval for use in treating Covid-19 by Britain ’ s National Health Service .
As I wrote earlier this month , with the virus still raging and no assurance of a safe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , effective treatments are going to be essential in managing the pandemic .
The study found that dexamethasone cut deaths by one-third in patients on ventilators and by one-fifth in patients who only needed oxygen .
Putting that number in context is essential .
According to the researchers , that equates to one life saved for every eight ventilated patients treated , or for every 25 non-ventilated patients who require oxygen .
The drug didn ’ t help patients who didn ’ t need oxygen .
That result makes sense ; the medicine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a potentially deadly overactive immune response to infection , an issue that ’ s likely most pronounced in the sickest patients .
Still , preventing death is an impressive outcome .
Gilead Sciences Inc. ’ s remdesivir , already approved for emergency use in several countries , has only proven it can reduce time to recovery .
The dexamethasone results also come from a comparison of more than 2,000 patients to a control arm of over 4,000 patients .
Once researchers disclose more data , that should serve as the backbone of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ used to justify remdesivir ’ s approval .
Unlike remdesivir , dexamethasone is widely available and uncomplicated to manufacture .
In comparison to other potentially useful anti-inflammatory drugs such as Roche Holding AG ’ s Actemra , it ’ s cheap .
These same features formed part of the appeal of hydroxychloroquine , a commonly available malaria drug once hyped as a treatment .
Unlike that medicine , which was pulled from the market in the U.S. in part due to results from another arm of the same U.K. trial , dexamethasone seems @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for every eight to twenty-five people treated may not seem like much .
But there are thousands of people hospitalized around the world right now that could benefit from this medicine , and thousands more are likely to join them if current trends continue .
This drug has a better chance than most to reach patients worldwide and could lead to many better outcomes in the months to come .
Dexamethasone isn ’ t going to stop the pandemic in its tracks , and it shouldn ’ t substantially shift individual behavior or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contracting Covid-19 or spreading it to others .
It certainly shouldn ’ t underpin an investment thesis for travel stocks .
That said , the trial is a step toward understanding the disease ; if a decades-old steroid can prevent deaths , there are likely more benefits to reap from other anti-inflammatory drugs or combination therapies .


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washingtonpost--2020-06-22--Visa Dispatches ‘Street Teams’ to Call on Small U.S. Businesses

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washingtonpost--2020-06-22--Analysis | The French Are in No Hurry to Return to Work

To do so , he ’ s harking back to themes from his 2017 presidential campaign as a pro-jobs candidate who would be judged on his ability to shake up the country ’ s rigid labor market and complex pensions system.
“ France must fully get back to work , ” he said in a national televised speech on June 14 .
“ We must work , and produce , more.
” These challenges aren ’ t unique to France , or Europe , but few other countries had seen an exhausting cycle of social unrest and anti-government protests in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which contributed to Macron ’ s approval rating stagnating at 38 % .
Labor unions pounced on his words after his TV speech , accusing him of wanting to make up for lost economic time by forcing people to work longer — exactly what fueled protests against his now-suspended attempt at pension reform .
Newspaper Liberation superimposed Macron ’ s features onto the head of Nicolas Sarkozy , a center-right predecessor whose mantra in 2007 was : “ Work more to earn more.
” It ’ s hard to rally the troops @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The sudden return of the office in people ’ s minds is triggering stress : Some 42 % of workers are in psychological distress , workplace consultancy Empreinte Humaine estimates .
While not always unwarranted , every excuse for not returning to work is being given , from childcare burdens to the fear of taking public transport again , and doctors report a steady flow of people asking for sick leave .
It ’ s no wonder Macron made school mandatory again : As of June , 40 % of teachers were not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adding to parents ’ logistical nightmares .
Some white-collar workers paid to stay at home have gotten comfortable with this new parallel reality .
“ At first , I felt guilty for not working , ” one furloughed staffer told me .
“ Then it went away.
” In an ideal world , reopening the economy would bring all of these workers back online .
But the French economy still bears the scars of one of Europe ’ s strictest lockdowns , which crushed the tourism industry and gummed up factory production and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the population was divided neatly into three : 34 % working on the front lines ( from medical professionals to grocery store employees ) , 30 % working from home , and 36 % not working at all .
It ’ s the latter that represent the biggest policy challenge .
To avoid mass layoffs , the Macron administration — rightly — rolled out one of the most generous furlough schemes in Europe , with the state taking on the payment of as much as 80 % of gross wages .
Companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ avoid the hassle of rehiring people later .
The program covered almost half the French workforce , according to Fitch Ratings .
That compares with around one-third of workers in Italy , and around one-fifth in the U.K. and Germany .
Companies are in no fit state to reabsorb France ’ s entire army of furloughed workers .
The virus is still with us , and so is social distancing , meaning the cost of doing business has gone up even as demand has gone down .
While helping firms , generous state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made them more indebted and less likely to hire or spend .
Some 68 % of companies have either delayed or plan to delay investment , according to research firm Rexecode .
Anxious bosses are pulling all levers at their disposal to keep up workplace productivity , but the aerospace and automobile sectors are examples of industries where furloughs will last .
There ’ s no point in kicking a valuable economic crutch out of the way if the alternative is more job cuts .
The risk of funneling indefinite subsidies into the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ taxpayer money on “ zombie ” jobs that may never be viable , argues economist Patrick Artus of Natixis SA .
[ It may be better to focus ] on struggling sectors and offer smaller , but more direct , wage subsidies .
Fiscal stimulus could then be targeted at more in productive areas like the green economy , creating new jobs and helping to retrain manufacturing workers .
There ’ s a chance here for Macron to hand more decision-making to local authorities and to companies themselves , which have been striking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
One example of this , consultancy Technologia says , is an aerospace firm that agreed pay cuts to avoid 700 potential layoffs .
For now , it looks like the return to work will be a gradual affair .
Covid-19 is still with us , and government subsidies will be too .
In the meantime , workers will be tempted to resist the calls for working harder , much like the 2004 book “ Bonjour Laziness ” by Corinne Maier that advocated a “ disengagement ” from corporate life .
And Macron @ @ @ @ @ @ @ once more to be heard .


washingtonpost--2020-06-19--Analysis | How Safe Is Flying in the Age of Coronavirus?

Yes .
While there is still relatively little published research on the spread of the virus on airlines , an investigation into a March 2 flight from the U.K. to Vietnam suggested that one passenger transmitted the virus to as many as 14 others and a crew member .
Twelve of these passengers were sitting close to the suspected first case , which matches the expected spread of this and other coronaviruses .
The International Air Transport Association , the trade group for the world ’ s airlines , said that aside from this case , an informal survey of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first three months of the year of suspected in-flight transmission from passengers to crew , and a further four where one pilot appeared to give the virus to another .
This group of airlines represented 14 % of global air traffic in that period , according to IATA .
Yes , viruses including SARS , influenza and smallpox , which like the novel coronavirus are transmitted through the coughing , sneezing and breathing of those who are infected , have spread on aircraft .
During the 2003 outbreak of SARS , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 40 flights were found to have carried probable cases of the SARS virus and resulted in spread to other passengers .
Studies have found that the greatest risk comes from sitting within two rows of a contagious passenger for a flight longer than 8 hours .
Still , in a case in which 20 people developed the virus from exposure to an infected passenger on an Air China flight from Hong Kong to Beijing , fewer than half were sitting within two rows of the original case .
And more infections were seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the center aisle .
People infected with the novel coronavirus emit virus-containing droplets from their noses and mouths , which can be transferred directly to someone in close proximity or by touching a contaminated surface and then the mouth , nose or eyes .
What makes flying risky is the same as other forms of transport : close proximity to other people and common touch areas .
The airport can also be a risk as passengers wait in queues , check in for flights , visit food vendors , and use facilities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also possible that the coronavirus can be transmitted via smaller particles that people emit from their noses and mouths known as aerosols , which can float for a time through the air and be inhaled .
The aerospace industry says modern aircraft ventilation should mitigate the risk of this sort of spread .
The air on a plane is generally a 50-50 mix of sterile outside air and recirculated cabin air that ’ s been filtered .
According to Airbus SE and Boeing Co. , all their aircraft are fitted with HEPA filters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus .
Airflow goes from ceiling to floor rather than front to back and is compartmentalized into sections throughout the cabin , which should limit the movement of particles along the length of the plane .
Even so , modeling suggests this airflow can be influenced by factors such as seat and cabin layout and how full the aircraft is .
Also , these ventilation systems may not be fully operational when planes are parked at the gate .
An influenza outbreak in 1979 resulted from passengers being kept on board a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Airlines are now telling passengers to wear face masks throughout their journeys , which could reduce risks , though it ’ s not clear how thoroughly the rule will be enforced .
Airlines are cleaning aircraft more frequently and thoroughly , and going cashless .
They are using online check-in and automated bag drops .
Some are no longer serving food and beverages .
Passengers are being asked not to queue for the toilet and instead to press the call bell and await permission to answer nature ’ s call .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Delta Air Lines Inc. alone have promised to leave space between passengers , though other carriers are limiting the number of passengers on each flight , when possible .
European airlines have largely been reluctant to commit to leaving middle seats empty , saying that the science is limited on the effectiveness of the practice and that it would make flights too costly to run .
In London ’ s Heathrow airport , Europe ’ s busiest , passengers and staff will be obligated to wear face masks and will see signage throughout @ @ @ @ @ @ @ safe distance .
Hand sanitizer is widely available at over 600 kiosks throughout the airport and temperature screening is being tried out .
The United Nation ’ s International Civil Aviation Organization recently issued safe travel guidelines advising airports to go further .
Recommendations include introducing contact-free technology at bag drops , boarding gates and retail outlets .
The agency said a 1-meter ( 3-foot ) distance should be maintained throughout the airport and boarding processes should be revised to avoid queuing .
Bathrooms , it said , should be switched over to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ should be in place for arrivals from high-risk areas .


washingtonpost--2020-06-22--Analysis | States Don’t Need New Lockdowns to Cut Covid Spread

State leaders understandably resist the notion of issuing new stay-at-home orders , which would be painful , unpopular and at this point difficult to enforce .
Lockdowns averted millions of potential cases in the spring , and they may still be required if case growth gets out of hand .
But blunt quarantine isn ’ t the only way to check Covid-19 .
Over the past several months , scientists worldwide have come to better understand how infections occur and what specific measures can most effectively prevent them .
States can and should pay attention to what the experts have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behavior toward safety .
It won ’ t help to dismiss rising case counts as concentrated outbreaks or an illusion created by increased testing , as the governors of Texas and Florida did last week .
While hot spots account for some of the case growth , and testing is up , neither of these explain why the two states are seeing thousands of new infections every day .
Case growth is widespread , and the percentage of tests coming back positive — a measure that indicates the level of uncontained community spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Arizona , current hospitalizations are ticking up .
The same may or may not be true in Florida , which inexcusably fails to report that data daily .
While governors are keen to note that hospitals have spare capacity , that advantage could disappear quickly .
Hospital beds fill up faster than they empty , and Covid-19 doesn ’ t strike according to where beds are available .
Also , as more beds and hospital staff must be devoted to Covid , other care gets pushed aside , with damaging results .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the death rate from Covid-19 in the four states with the largest new outbreaks is holding steady .
This may be because of improving treatment , broader testing that catches cases early when they ’ re easier to manage , and widespread precautions that protect those most at risk , including the elderly .
On the other hand , it may simply reflect the fact that death rates are a lagging indicator .
It takes time to develop a Covid infection severe enough to require intensive care , and the sickest patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of this week ’ s deaths stemmed from infections that happened last month .
A younger-skewing outbreak will result in fewer deaths in the near-term .
However , each case represents an avenue of possible transmission to someone more at-risk , and scientists are still assessing the long term impact of infection on people of all ages .
Governors should understand that they can lower their case rates without locking down their economies if they pay attention to what experts have observed about Covid-19 contagion : Well-spaced outdoor activities appear to pose little @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to easily pick up the virus from food or surfaces that others have touched .
But the disease spreads readily among people who engage in prolonged close contact in crowded and poorly ventilated spaces .
So it ’ s possible to limit transmission by restricting crowds and calling for social distancing indoors .
People who stand just one meter ( a little over three feet ) away from others stand a drastically lower chance of infection than those who get closer , and the risk decreases further with greater distance .
Effective public @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trace and isolate the contacts of those infected can also lower the risk of infection in a population by more than half , new modeling from U.K.-based researchers suggests .
While such efforts are useful in stemming any infectious disease , they are especially so for one like Covid , which often produces no symptoms and transmits readily within homes .
The caveat is , the more virus there is circulating in a community , the harder it is to stay ahead of the spread with testing and contact tracing .
Targeted suppression @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdowns do .
To avoid the need for new stay-at-home orders , in other words , states need a greater sense of urgency about taking more targeted steps .
Of course , most states , including those seeing rising case counts , recommend social distancing and maintain some capacity limits on retail businesses .
But widespread reports of careless behavior and renewed case growth suggest that either the rules are too lax or people just aren ’ t following them .
Clearly , it ’ s not enough to merely ask people to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consistent communication to shift behavior enough to change transmission dynamics .
This is particularly true when it comes to masks , which have become politicized in the U.S .
Covering your face before entering a grocery store is properly viewed as an easy way to protect yourself and others .
Unfortunately , neglecting this basic human courtesy has become a form of protest against government overreach .
State leaders can and should try to discourage such protest — including by broadly mandating mask-wearing , as California Governor Gavin Newsom did last week .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ use seem not to care as much as they need to about saving lives .
In the face of the country ’ s worst new Covid outbreak , Arizona Governor Doug Ducey has finally allowed local officials to require masks , but he ’ s still leaving policy up to individual communities .
Texas Governor Greg Abbott now allows local mask mandates , but only if officials impose them indirectly by placing rules on businesses , not people .


washingtonpost--2020-03-17--Analysis | Meddlers Make a Bad Market Worse

The Bank of Japan on Monday doubled its upper limit of exchange-traded fund purchases to 12 trillion yen ( $ 113 billion ) per year .
As of February , the BOJ had already accumulated a vast ETF portfolio , worth about 32 trillion yen , or 6 % of the Tokyo Stock Exchange ’ s main board .
Despite all that , Japanese stocks are only getting cheaper .
The Topix is hovering at a mere 10.9 times forward earnings , a 23 % discount to the S & P 500 , even after Monday ’ s plunge .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda assumed office in early 2013 , the Topix was trading at a premium to U.S. stocks .
You can ’ t help but wonder if buying more passive funds is actually hurting the market more than helping it .
For one , trust banks , which buy stocks to create ETFs , are free to make those shares available for loans , thereby raising liquidity for short sellers , noted Nicholas Smith , CLSA Ltd. ’ s Japan strategist , in a recent report .
More importantly , passive buying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stock market .
As we ’ ve observed , ETFs tend to favor large caps .
While the U.S. is defined by “ big tech ” stocks that are highly scalable and rely heavily on end consumers , Japan is dominated by companies that serve other businesses and require hefty investment in factories and equipment .
But it ’ s industrials that get hurt most in this kind of market .
Such companies comprise the biggest sector on the Topix , with about a 22 % weight .
In a downturn , markets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , particularly when investors use them as a proxy for their generally pessimistic worldviews .
Unfortunately , Japanese stocks fall squarely into that category .
Machinery equipment maker Komatsu Ltd. , for instance , lost 36 % of its market value this year , despite offering a nice 6.6 % dividend yield .
The BOJ must be quite worried about stocks .
Before this month , the central bank ’ s biggest daily ETF purchase was 75 billion yen ; on March 2 , it bought 101 billion yen — and has repeated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have already net sold over $ 15 billion worth of Japanese stocks this year , the latest data from the Ministry of Finance show .
This portfolio inflow is highly correlated with forward price-to-earning ratios , a CLSA study finds .
In other words , money from abroad chases growth , not value .
The conventional wisdom is not to fight the Fed — or , in this case , the BOJ .
While it ’ s tempting to follow the central bank ’ s footsteps and hold on to cyclical large caps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that the coronavirus has changed the global economic landscape .
Value stocks are more doomed than ever .
Shuli Ren is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian markets .
She previously wrote on markets for Barron ’ s , following a career as an investment banker , and is a CFA charterholder .