washingtonpost--2020-06-16--Analysis | Europe Is in Danger of Another Sovereign Debt Doom Loop

So banks will be snapping up more debt from their national governments , potentially creating an infernal “ doom loop , ” where a bank will struggle if the value of its government bondholdings plunge in a market rout ( say if the economy tanks again ) — and the lender ’ s and the sovereign ’ s fate would be locked together .
This became a systemic threat early in the last decade , stoking the 2012 euro crisis .
Europe ’ s financial response to the pandemic has been admirable , and it makes sense to loosen banking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy can turn again .
But the latest relaxation is risky .
It will temporarily free lenders from taking a hit to their capital ratios should their portfolios of government debt shrink in value , in essence removing part of the requirements to mark-to-market ( in other words , mark down any market losses ) .
This is a bold move as the ECB is simultaneously pump-priming the banking sector with as much liquidity as it wants , to spend however it wants .
The past three months have already seen a record @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 225 billion ) in EU banks ’ holdings of euro sovereign debt , according to analysts from Jefferies International Ltd. Looser capital rules will just add to the attraction .
This week ’ s main event will be a new round of ultra-cheap ECB loans to banks , known as targeted long-term refinancing operations ( TLTROs ) , with rates as generous as minus 100 basis points .
The central bank is literally paying banks to borrow .
Frederik Ducrozet , a strategist at Pictet Wealth Management , estimates that lenders will take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will be parked in liquid government debt , at least in the short term .
Much of this extra money will end up being used by bankers in those carry trades .
In this case , banks will borrow at -1 % in the TLTRO scheme , then invest in government bonds and investment-grade corporate debt that provide a juicy return .
This might improve lackluster bank profitability , but at what cost if it means lenders are then holding too much government debt ?
It ’ s one thing for the ECB @ @ @ @ @ @ @ euros of Italian government bonds , and quite another for commercial lenders to be so exposed to one nation .
Italy ’ s Intesa Sanpaolo SpA is already that country ’ s second-largest creditor , with about 100 billion euros of its national debt .
Piling yet more government borrowings into the Italian banking system , which holds a higher percentage of its country ’ s bonds than any other euro-area nation , might not be a good idea .
The impetus to push more money into the finance system and to encourage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But it risks leaving the euro zone exposed again to its Achilles heel of having a banking system that funds sovereign debt .
This may all be necessary to reinvigorate the European economy but danger lurks .


washingtonpost--2020-06-16--Japan’s New Wave: Cash, Bankruptcies and Inequality

Bankruptcies at large Japanese companies have fallen .
So it ’ s curious that risk-averse , mom-and-pop outfits sitting on cash are falling victim faster everywhere , not just where they make up a majority of firms , such as restaurants and small retailers .
Years of low investment and failure to grow equity capital have made them more vulnerable .
An analysis by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shows that while larger companies have been able to build their equity buffers , the tiniest haven ’ t .
Businesses with capital of more than 1 billion yen ( $ 9.3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ around 30 % and have broadly trended upward ; they can stand to absorb losses .
The ratios of those with less than 10 million yen are close to 15 % and have stayed flat over the last couple of decades .
The moment earnings get hit , they face a wipe out .
Low tolerance for losses means micro-enterprises throw in the towel at any semblance of a prolonged downturn .
At slightly larger firms , the acceptance of taking a hit even if working capital is insufficient “ has increased substantially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bankruptcy .
What of the cash cushions ?
Those are a strategic asset right now and will hold Japanese companies in good stead .
After struggling through previous financial crises , they turned to hoarding cash and started switching their preferred funding away from debt .
As a percentage of gross domestic product , firms ’ liquid assets have risen from 103 % in 2003 to 136 % last year , according to Capital Economics.Micro-enterprises have been the bigger savers and kept more in cash .
That gave them more discretion on where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were uncertain , as now , they could hold back ; if money was flowing in , then put it toward spending on fixed assets .
The impetus to grow was largely lost .
As Goldman Sachs ’ Tomohiro Ota says , the root of the problem for micro-enterprises is low productivity and profitability .
A survey in April showed that Japanese companies were decreasing investment because “ the future can not be foreseen.
” Sure , the size of companies going under is small , and so will be the total liabilities @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impact on the macro economy may not feel that severe to start .
But if the numbers rise sharply , things could turn sour soon — and deepen the challenges for micro firms , where some 24 % of employees in Japan work .
This situation points to a more persistent problem : access to credit for micro-enterprises .
Japanese banks , even with their low loan to deposit ratios , tend to rely on hard , fixed assets for collateral .
That ’ s a setback for little companies , and means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t as easy .
Small remains small .
Since February , the government has doled out trillions of yen in aid , including tax breaks and refunds , employment subsidies , cash grants and interest-free , unsecured loans .
Yet despite such largesse , when things go bad , they do so quickly .
Bankruptcies are expected to rise .
Larger companies tend to have far better access to commercial paper and bond markets , and find ways to leverage stimulus loan programs .
Smaller ones get caught up in bureaucratic and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A crisis brings the future into focus .
Many of these businesses are family-owned , and succession planning – whether that ’ s selling , handing it over or closing — is harder in the midst of Covid-19 .
Much like in the U.S. , where the Chapter 11 process of reorganizing firms and their balance sheets suits larger companies , shutting down is just the cheaper and less cumbersome option .
The incentive increases as Japan ’ s population ages and businesses don ’ t have a successor .
In the past @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have been liquidations .
Japan ’ s small-firm problem has become structural .
Even if government support helps contain bankruptcies , it may ultimately lead to the preservation of low-margin companies without boosting their profitability or productivity , as Goldman ’ s Ota says .
The “ measures to bolster capital could prove a double-edged sword over the long term , ” the report notes .

Why did this happen?
Please make sure your browser supports JavaScript and cookies and that you are not blocking them from loading. For more information you can review our Terms of Service and Cookie Policy.


washingtonpost--2020-06-16--Analysis | AmEx May Find China Can Live Life Without It

Competition will come not just from UnionPay cards , which dominate the market , but also mobile-payment apps , where Ant Financial ’ s Alipay and Tencent Holdings Ltd. ’ s WeChat Pay are big players .
AmEx ’ s partner , LianLian , is tiny by comparison .
To top it off , China is also testing out the digital yuan , another budding rival in the payment space .
“ Having a foreign branded card in your wallet used to mean you have made it in China , but now matters little , ” says Zennon Kapron , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Another challenge is that fees in China are lower than in the U.S. , so companies need to win scale to make the big bucks : The card-clearing fee rate is 0.065 % for domestic banks and the acquiring fee rate ranges from 0.5 % to 1 % .
In the U.S. , issuers like AmEx charge between 1.4 % and 3.5 % .
AmEx and its Chinese partner will also have to convince local banks to issue cards processed on their network , and get more merchants to accept them .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ compared with rivals , AmEx tends to be used less in Asia and Europe .
Still , there is money to be made if AmEx plays its cards right .
One strategy that ’ s worked in the U.S. is offering plenty of rewards .
A large card firm told Kapron , the consultant , that even with the thinnest slice of the market , it would still be profitable .
There will always be spenders who like premium cards they can use at home and overseas , he says .
Banks , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ UnionPay , notes James Lloyd , Asia-Pacific fintech leader at Ernst & Young LLP in Hong Kong .
More competition can only be a good thing for their merchant clients and cardholders .
To AmEx ’ s credit , just getting to this point is a step in the right direction .
It ’ s been a long slog .
( 2 ) Both Visa and MasterCard have been waiting since 2006 to gain access to China .
AmEx cleared a key hurdle in early January when regulators accepted its application to start @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Last March , MasterCard refiled its application , raising its stake in a joint venture with NetsUnion Clearing Corp. , or Wanglian , a clearing house for online payments .
There ’ s little clarity on the progress of Visa ’ s application , which was made in July 2018 without a mainland partner .
Of course , there is a whiff of politics in the timing of all this .
As tensions between Washington and Beijing intensify amid the coronavirus outbreak , China appears to be holding up its end of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agreement signed in January included measures to speed up the opening of mainland financial markets , with plans to accelerate approvals for AmEx , MasterCard and Visa , specifically .
By starting with AmEx , Beijing is picking off the low-hanging fruit ; its mainland partner stands to benefit from any increased business , too .
But with Covid-19 wreaking havoc on the economy , it ’ s going to take more than Beijing ’ s blessing to get shopaholics back in force , beyond some revenge spending .
AmEx , whose slogan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Without It , ” may find becoming indispensable in China its toughest sell yet .
( 1 ) In 2012 , the World Trade Organization ruled in favor of a U.S. claim that argued foreign payment providers should have been given access to the domestic clearing market in 2001 , when China acceded to the WTO .


washingtonpost--2020-06-16--Analysis | Bond Traders Love the Fed. The PBOC? Not So Much

You ’ ve got to give China some credit for getting money flowing .
Property developers , which account for over half of Asia ’ s high-yield universe , started seeing easier financing back home .
After all , the arch of any debt curve bends toward central bank policies .
In time of distress , Beijing could keep a steady hand , many hoped .
But now traders are sitting at their desks , staring into thin air .
It ’ s no longer clear what the PBOC is up to .
They wonder if the two-year onshore bond-market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Just take a look at how volatile China ’ s equivalent of the Fed funds rate has been lately .
In just one month , the 7-day repurchase rate , or the short-term rate that banks use to lend to each other , jumped 50 basis points to 1.8 % .
This is partly the result of a crackdown on interest rate arbitrage .
Since the virus outbreak , billions of dollars of easy money have stayed in the financial system , rather than flowing to the real economy , the central @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up in so-called structured deposits , a form of high-yielding wealth management product , which have ballooned by over 2 trillion yuan ( $ 282.1 billion ) in the first four months of the year .
Instead of paying salaries or shoring up working capital , large corporations have been taking out cheap bank loans and issuing low-yielding bonds to get juicy returns instead .
While bond yields fell amid the pandemic , those offered by wealth management products held up .
Regional banks and other financial institutions were borrowing heavily in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ steady yields were only achieved through high leverage .
By guiding repo rates back up to make such borrowing more costly , the PBOC can stamp out this carry trade , the thinking goes .
Consider , too , that China operates with a loose interest rate corridor .
The ceiling is the rate at which banks can borrow from the PBOC through its standing lending facilities , and the floor is the rate paid on lenders ’ excess reserves held at the central bank .
Officials aim to keep the 7-day repo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ operations , at the middle of the range .
But lately , the corridor has collapsed .
Perhaps it ’ s time to bring the repo line back up , the PBOC reasons .
In the first two weeks of June , the central bank has been tightening its fist , pulling a net 250 billion yuan from the banking system .
On Monday , the interest rate offered on its medium-term lending facility remained unchanged , signaling the PBOC had no intent of easing , even as a second wave of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While it ’ s commendable that the central bank wants to send its money to Main Street , is this sudden policy flip-flop a good idea ?
Why should anyone invest in a market where basic funding costs take a roller-coaster ride on a daily basis ?
Ultimately , the problem is that China has too many interest rates .
On the wholesale banking side , borrowing costs have come down , thanks to cuts in the MLF and reverse repo rate .
But on the consumer banking side , the one-year benchmark @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2015 , because much-hyped reform never happened .
As a result , retail investors expect the yield on wealth management products to remain high .
Hence , the levered-up carry trade .
But with all these rates , it ’ s hard to gauge the real stance of monetary policy .
The PBOC now comes across as clueless , unaware that its shifting stance has serious knock-on effects .
Even with the best of intentions , such an inconsistent framework derails China ’ s resolve to open its financial markets to foreigners .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ volatility is a scary proposition .


washingtonpost--2020-06-16--Banks Snared in Race Conversation, Confronted by Bleak Legacy

Like many in corporate America , bank leaders have rushed to denounce racism and offer overtures to minority groups after the death of George Floyd , an unarmed Black man killed by police during an arrest in Minneapolis .
Yet as demonstrations against racial injustice and inequality enter a fourth week , the industry is increasingly getting singled out over its involvement in creating and prolonging economic gaps .
Activists say they plan to ramp up pressure on banks to address that legacy .
On the sidelines of protests , organizers are spreading the word about banks ’ roles in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ history , from financing slaveholders to systemic discrimination in 20th century mortgage lending known as redlining , which denied generations of minority families the chance to buy a home .
Activists are also trading statistics on the lack of diversity within banks and discussing lending and lobbying practices they say hurt minority communities .
Jennifer Epps-Addison , the president of the social-equity group CPD Action , was walking home from a rally in Los Angeles when the picture of Dimon taking a knee in front of a massive vault popped up on her @ @ @ @ @ @ @ banker in that symbolic position , she swore out loud .
Epps-Addison said the image immediately raised questions about the diversity of the bank ’ s leaders and what they have done to right past wrongs .
The firm , she said , should be hiring and promoting members of minority groups , reorienting core banking businesses and using its clout in Washington to enact measures to address disparities .
Robert Reich , the Clinton-era labor secretary who now researches public policy at the University of California , Berkeley , wrote a piece @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dimon ’ s photo among a variety of statements by corporate leaders including BlackRock Inc. ’ s Larry Fink and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ’ s David Solomon .
“ Most of this is for show , ” Reich said , describing examples of companies working against the interests of minorities .
Just days before Floyd ’ s death , the industry scored a partial victory in a long campaign to make it easier to comply with the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act , a law intended to undo redlining .
While backers predicted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ areas , fair lending advocates have condemned the moves as gutting the law .
“ Banks ’ actions really underline a lot of the economic divide and the wealth gap that we see among the races in this country , ” said Darrin Williams , a former state politician who now runs community development lender Southern Bancorp Inc. in Arkansas .
A minister ’ s son , he grew up surrounded by Black church leaders who deposited their Sunday collections into local banks that were unwilling to lend to members of the congregation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attacks the financial industry faced in the Occupy Wall Street movement that followed the 2008 financial crisis .
In the years since , banks have tried to recast themselves as a force for social good .
They have adopted more-inclusive policies for staff and curtailed at least some lending to controversial industries .
Some banks also launched targeted initiatives , such as JPMorgan ’ s vow to invest $ 200 million to support the revitalization of Detroit .
“ We ’ re going to be trying to look at things really differently than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to commit $ 1 million to this and $ 50 million to that , ’ and stuff that we were going to do anyway , ” said Daley , who previously served as chief of staff in Obama ’ s White House and is a scion of the Chicago political family .
“ That ’ s just the same old , pardon me , bulls -- - that everybody has done before , and that ’ s where our credibility then becomes zero.
” Of the more than 80 people now listed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ six largest U.S. banks , only one is Black : Citigroup Inc. Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason .
Recently , Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley announced they each plan to add a Black executive to their committees in coming weeks .
The lack of Black leadership in the industry is key , because it is “ absolutely ” linked to unfair practices , said Lisa Cook , an economics and international relations professor at Michigan State University .
“ It should belong in any discussion of wealth : Where are the Black bank @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-04-09--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Coronavirus Pandemic

It ’ s been described as “ insidious ” because many infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , unwittingly spreading it to others .
The estimated median length of time between infection and the onset of symptoms is five to six days , and some of those who are infected don ’ t develop symptoms at all , including children .
A study of 191 patients in China found that the median duration of infectiousness was 20 days with a maximum of 37 days .
A Japanese study suggested that a substantial proportion of infections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ill .
This can make it difficult to identify the people they had close contact with during that infectious period so that precautions can be taken against further spread .
Estimates of the fatality rate are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak because there may be many people with mild cases who go uncounted .
A number of projections have put the rate at about 1 % , which would make it 10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu .
A study published March 30 estimated it at 0.66 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of patients in the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS , and another known as MERS-CoV has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded since 2012 .
In those outbreaks , however , the viruses didn ’ t transmit from one person to another as efficiently as this new one does and didn ’ t spread as widely .
In the worst pandemic in recent history , the 1918 influenza hit as much as a third of the world ’ s population , killing about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an estimated 50 million people .
The last pandemic , an outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 flu ( swine flu ) in 2009 , infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and killed an estimated 12,469 of them in the first year it circulated .
It appears to cause a mild illness lasting about two weeks in children , adolescents and younger adults in most cases , and potentially more severe disease lasting three to six weeks in older people .
In a Chinese study , 81 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % were severe and 4.7 % critical .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , dry cough and tiredness .
A sudden loss of taste and smell is an early symptom among some patients .
Sputum production is another sign , if the virus stays in the nose and throat , which it does for the majority of people infected .
Danger starts when it reaches the lungs .
Apparently the elderly and those with underlying health issues .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with other illnesses such as high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found that 81 % of deaths occurred in patients over 60 years old ; in another study of about 4,000 cases in the U.S. , 80 % of those who died were 65 or older .
( By contrast , in the H1N1 pandemic , about 80 % of those who died were younger than 65 , according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention . )
By coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be transferred directly to someone in close proximity or by touching a contaminated surface and then the mouth , nose or eyes .
One study concluded that the coronavirus can survive four hours on copper , 24 hours on cardboard , 48 hours on stainless steel and 72 hours on plastic .
Simple disinfectants kill it .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the coronavirus can spread through feces or in tiny airborne particles known as aerosols .
In a study , researchers who deliberately aerosolized it under laboratory conditions found active @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three hours .
The WHO stressed , however , that according to current evidence , the possibility of airborne transmission is limited to medical procedures with Covid-19 patients that generate aerosols , such as tracheostomies .
The agency noted that in an analysis of more than 75,000 cases in China , no airborne transmission was reported .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people likely to be infected by an individual with the virus .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( pronounced “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
A study of an outbreak aboard a cruise ship estimated that the r0 for the coronavirus in that case was 2.28 at the early stage .
But a mathematical analysis from Los Alamos National Laboratory found the figure was 5.7 during the early epidemic in Wuhan .
The Los Alamos team ’ s results were specific to the Wuhan outbreak .
But if they hold true elsewhere in the world , the pandemic may be more difficult to control than some authorities have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seasonal flu has an r0 of about 1.3 and killed an estimated 61,000 people in the U.S. in the 2017-18 season .
That ’ s an important unknown .
South Korea ’ s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported in early April that 51 patients had recovered and tested positive again afterwards .
The head of the agency suggested that rather than being re-infected , these people had cases where the virus was reactivated .
In a study published March 12 , researchers theorized that it may take a few days for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ viruses , which can be hard to detect .
During that period , the virus may briefly rebound and , depending on the patient ’ s general health , there is a risk of a relapse .
With many pathogens , the body develops antibodies that protect against reinfection for life .
But it ’ s not always the case .
Reinfection after a period of months or years has been found to be common with other human coronaviruses .
If enough people in a community develop immunity through prior illness or vaccination @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That reduces the number of susceptible people to a level at which transmission slows and eventually stops .
The necessary percentage depends on the r0 .
For an r0 of 2.2 , the threshold is about 55 % ; for an r0 of 5.7 , it rises to 82 % .
Just because outbreaks of influenza wilt with seasonal changes doesn ’ t mean the novel coronavirus will behave in the same way , though there is some indication it may .
Some evidence suggests that as the weather warms , flu @ @ @ @ @ @ @ returning again with cooler weather .
So , even if the coronavirus does subside in the summer , it could return in the fall .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them , responsible for diseases that range in severity from the common cold to MERS .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
The WHO says that new strains emerge periodically around the globe , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as zoonoses , comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
There is no evidence that domestic animals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread Covid-19 to people , according to officials including at the WHO and the American Veterinary Medical Association .
But there have been examples of animals apparently contracting the disease from humans .
One tiger tested positive at the Bronx Zoo , according to the USDA National Veterinary Services Laboratories , which said evidence suggested the animal got it from an infected zoo employee .
Two house cats and two dogs living with infected owners are known to have tested positive , but Jacqui Norris , a professor of veterinary microbiology and infectious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said the timing of those results also indicated human-to-animal transmission .
Thousands of other animals tested have been negative .
To be safe , health officials recommend that a sick person avoid contact with all other members of the household , including pets .
If that ’ s not possible , use proper hand hygiene .


washingtonpost--2020-04-13--Analysis | Why the OPEC-Russia Blowup Sparked All-Out Oil Price War

Russia and nine other countries had joined forces with the 13-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in 2016 .
The group , dubbed “ OPEC+ , ” controlled almost half of the world ’ s oil production and led to a resurgence of the cartel .
The blowup came after Russia refused to go along with production cuts pushed by Saudi Arabia at a March 6 meeting in Vienna .
The kingdom -- OPEC ’ s biggest producer and its driving force -- wanted to trim output to prop up prices as the coronavirus ravaged demand .
The fight prompted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to temporarily reverse course and open the taps .
As the pandemic stretched on , there were estimates that it could knock out as much as a third of global oil demand .
The slump in prices threatened millions of jobs and the political stability of oil-dependent nations .
On April 2 , U.S. President Donald Trump called for a coordinated production cut , becoming the first U.S. leader in decades to move to drive up the price of oil .
What emerged was an unprecedented agreement to cut global oil production by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from oil producers in the G-20 states that have long railed against OPEC ’ s control of the world ’ s most critical commodity .
While the plan puts an end to the immediate price war , it ’ s not likely to go far enough to offset the impact of the pandemic on world oil demand .
Russia didn ’ t want to be strong-armed into further cuts to its lucrative oil production .
It complained that its three-year deal with OPEC , which has been managing global oil supply since 1960 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ industry .
Russia was also increasingly angry with Trump ’ s willingness to employ energy as a political tool .
It was irked by the use of U.S. sanctions to prevent the completion of a pipeline linking Siberia ’ s gas fields with Germany , known as Nord Stream 2 .
The Kremlin was reluctant to cede further market share to U.S. shale drillers -- known as frackers -- that have been adding millions of barrels of oil to global markets .
An attack on shale has been tried before : When the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Saudi Arabia ’ s strategy was to flood the market , expecting that a collapse in prices would thwart the new competition .
As shale producers found cheaper ways to operate and a global supply glut dragged on , OPEC then returned to its traditional tool of constraining output , sending oil to a four-year high of more than $ 85 a barrel by mid-2018 .
OPEC ’ s success in lifting oil prices proved self-defeating .
Higher prices re-invigorated U.S. fracking , propelling the U.S. past Saudi Arabia and Russia as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ producer .
Many drillers in Texas and other shale regions look vulnerable , as they ’ re heavily indebted and already battered by rock-bottom natural gas prices .
The price of oil tumbled to less than $ 25 a barrel in the days following the OPEC+ bustup .
That prompted some old-guard Texas oil drillers to urge state regulators to clamp down on crude production for the first time in nearly half a century in a coordinated effort with Saudi Arabia and Russia to calm the market and stave off a total industry @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russia is in a good position : Its budget breaks even at a price of $ 42 a barrel and it has squirreled away billions of dollars in a rainy-day fund .
Saudi Arabia , which is almost entirely dependent on oil to fund government spending , holds about $ 500 billion in foreign currency reserves as a cushion .
OPEC has a built-in competitive advantage , since its Middle Eastern members can produce crude at about a third of the cost of U.S. shale .
Such a dramatic crash in the price @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , would savage national budgets of petro-states from Venezuela to Nigeria to Iran , threatening to upend politics around the world .
Volatile oil prices are an added complication as policy makers try to shield economies from the impact of the coronavirus epidemic .
There are winners from rock-bottom oil prices -- among them China , the world ’ s largest oil importer , whose recovery from the virus will be key for the global economy .
The U.S. -- once a beneficiary of low oil prices -- is now an exporter rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ oil prices are feared because of the way they could jack up costs across the global economy and slow economic growth .
Now a world reeling from an economic slump triggered by the virus is enduring another sort of oil shock .


washingtonpost--2020-04-09--Asian Tycoons Hunt for Bargain Deals After Market Rout

Major stock indexes in the U.S. , Europe and Asia Pacific all plunged about 20 % in the first quarter in their worst rout since the 2008 financial crisis , making retail chains to hotels and property developers attractive to suitors .
Cash-rich conglomerates like Li ’ s CK group are in a position to invest when others struggle as they are built to defend against the bad times , said Jonathan Galligan , group deputy head of research at CLSA Ltd. “ This is a tremendous opportunity for any company with cash , ” Galligan said .
“ If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the global market , right now cash is king.
” The junior Li , 55 , now chairman of CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd. , CK Asset Holdings Ltd. and CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd. , told analysts on March 19 that the group ’ s cash flow and balance sheet are strong and the impact of the virus offers “ opportunities to look at new acquisitions.
” He didn ’ t elaborate .
The market rout has come as Li ’ s biggest test since his father passed on the baton in May @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , 91 , came to Hong Kong as a refugee but went on to transform a plastic flower business into a ports-to-telecommunications empire spanning the world .
CK Hutchison , the main flagship whose stock has tumbled 22 % this year , said it had HK $ 145 billion ( $ 18.7 billion ) of cash and liquid investments as of December .
That is 3.6 times its short-term debt and 1.7 times its debt maturing over 2020 and 2021 , according to S & P Global Ratings .
The group spent $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ British pub operator Greene King Plc , following about $ 15.2 billion of purchases the previous year , according to data compiled by Bloomberg .
The chaos triggered by the disease is also posing another challenge for prospective buyers .
Governments are preemptively trying to ward off predatory buying , with policy makers from Australia to Spain , Italy and Germany introducing or considering stricter rules to help shield strategically important domestic companies .
The regulatory barriers may make some acquisitions harder , far from the days when Chinese conglomerates such as HNA @ @ @ @ @ @ @ paid top dollar for assets from U.S. technology firms to European aviation businesses .
“ For companies like Li ’ s , they depend very much on acquisitions to grow , and that could be a big challenge in the long term , ” said Jackie Yan , an assistant professor in management and strategy at the University of Hong Kong .
Li , however , is no stranger to rejections by overseas regulators .
In 2018 , Australia rejected CK ’ s bid to buy APA Group , an operator of gas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( $ 8 billion ) , on national security concerns .
Had it been successful , that would ’ ve been CK ’ s biggest overseas purchase .
In its wake , the pandemic is likely to leave behind many ruined businesses after billions of people spent days in lockdowns and curtailed spending .
In the U.S. , 50,000 retail stores have shut in just over a week .
More than half of U.K. firms have just three months ’ cash in reserve or less , according to a survey by the British @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Corp. said last week that it had received 315 requests for financing from companies and small- and medium-sized enterprises in 70 countries .
Fosun ’ s founder Guo said Thursday the group will use its global resources to “ find the best opportunities in this round of crisis.
” Fosun will focus on its existing markets such as Europe , U.S. , India , Brazil and China for further investments , and is looking for value investments that will enhance its health care , tourism , retail and finance businesses , he said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bloomberg News .
Fosun International Ltd. had 93.6 billion yuan ( $ 13.2 billion ) in cash and equivalents last year , compared with 82.7 billion yuan of short-term debt , according to data compiled by Bloomberg .
The group is into health care , insurance and hospitality .


washingtonpost--2020-05-03--Small Firms Still in Dark on Loan Forgiveness as Clock Ticks

Companies and lenders say they need more guidance on how to calculate the amount that ’ s eligible for forgiveness and what documentation is required to support the claims .
That could leave small firms on the hook to repay loan proceeds they thought would be a grant .
As a result , some business owners are holding onto the loans and may even return them , according to interviews with small business groups , lenders and borrowers .
The Paycheck Protection Program was designed as a lifeline for small firms , many of which were shuttered due to stay-at-home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and may be forced to close for good .
Time is short , since the funds must be spent within eight weeks after they ’ re received to qualify for forgiveness .
Every day of uncertainty means making decisions is more difficult , the groups and business owners said .
“ As soon as they got the money , they ’ re calling and saying , ‘ OK , how do I spend this to make sure I get this forgiven , because I don ’ t want to mess this up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a partner at Starfield & Smith in Pennsylvania , who advises lenders on SBA loan programs .
“ Borrowers are concerned , they would like to make sure that they don ’ t have to pay this money back.
” The uncertainty about how loans will be forgiven is just the latest stumbling block in the SBA ’ s chaotic effort to funnel about $ 670 billion to small firms across the country to counter the devastating effects of Covid-19 on their operations .
The initiative was intended to keep them afloat and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reopen .
The initial round of $ 349 billion in funding ran out on April 16 in just 13 days after 1.66 million firms were approved for loans .
The program relaunched April 27 with an additional $ 320 billion , and the SBA and Treasury Department reported on Sunday that 2.2 million loans totaling $ 175.7 billion from more than 5,400 lenders have been processed , with an average loan size of $ 79,000 -- much lower than the $ 206,000 average in the first round .
The totals , through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the additional funding remains available .
The new data show that disparities in approvals among states in the first round of funding have been largely eliminated and suggest more smaller firms are getting loans .
The program provides loans of as much as $ 10 million to small businesses affected by the outbreak .
The law says borrowers don ’ t have to repay the loans if the money is spent on payroll plus mortgage interest , rent and utilities .
An initial rule issued by SBA and Treasury said 75 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and 25 % on the approved expenses .
The amount forgiven is reduced if owners cut jobs or wages , and any amount that ’ s not forgiven must be repaid at 1 % interest in two years , with the first payment deferred for six months .
Business owners don ’ t have enough guidance about how they ’ re spending the money to ensure they ’ ll avoid having to repay it , said Holly Wade , director of research and policy analysis for the National Federation of Independent Business .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ eight weeks but paid later would qualify .
They ’ d also like more flexibility about how the proceeds can be used and still qualify for forgiveness .
Small business and industry groups are lobbying Congress and the Trump administration for changes .
Congress said in the legislation creating the program that the SBA was to issue guidance and regulations for loan forgiveness “ not later than 30 days after the date of enactment of this act , ” which would have been April 26 .
Almost a week on , the agency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issue the guidance and didn ’ t comment for this report .
The program was designed to have banks disburse loans to small businesses that SBA would guarantee , to get money into the hands of those in need as quickly as possible .
Lenders can apply to have the agency reimburse them for the portions of loans that are forgiven , starting seven weeks after money is disbursed .
James Cummings , who runs 22 Great Clips franchises across North Carolina , said he received a loan for his hair salons toward @ @ @ @ @ @ @ holding on to it until he gets more details on how the forgiveness will work .
He ’ s hoping that the government will allow more flexibility in how he spends it .
The salon operator is among small business owners that are finding themselves caught in an additional bind : even with a loan , they can ’ t pay their employees as much as the workers could get from unemployment benefits , but they can ’ t use more of the money to cover other expenses while waiting to reopen .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ also say eight weeks of federal coronavirus relief won ’ t be enough , especially if they ’ re not ready to reopen during that time .
Industry groups including the National Restaurant Association are seeking a number of changes , including an extension of the period when owners can use the loan and have it forgiven .
Clara Osterhage , who owns hair salons in Ohio and other states , got her loan funds on April 26 , but doesn ’ t know when she ’ ll be able to reopen and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said she needs more clarity about the rules and may end up having to return the money rather than having to repay with interest a two-year loan she can ’ t afford .


washingtonpost--2020-03-24--Pelosi $2.5 Trillion Plan Has Mortgage Reprieve: Congress Update

There are currently no plans for House members to return to Washington to vote on the bill , which appears to be a list of demands Democrats want to see included in the Senate measure .
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer have been negotiating behind closed doors all day Monday searching for a compromise .
The U.S. Travel Association supports increasing the maximum loan amount offered to small businesses to four times the borrowers ’ monthly operating costs from 2.5 times the borrowers ’ monthly payroll expenses , according to Tori Emerson Barnes , who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ group .
The American Hotel & Lodging Association also supports that position , according to a person familiar with the matter .
The draft includes about $ 350 billion in loans for small businesses that would convert to grants if the companies retain their employees .
According to an official summary of the House bill , individuals including the retired and the unemployed would receive $ 1,500 , compared with $ 1,200 in the Senate bill .
The House proposal would also create a $ 600 per week payment for any worker laid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lost contracts due to the pandemic .
There are currently no plans for House members to return to Washington to vote on the bill , expected to be released later Monday .
At this point , it appears to be a list of demands Democrats want to see included in the Senate bill .
-- Erik Wasson A demand for greater oversight of the fund to assist companies and state and local governments has been a key sticking point for Democrats .
Coons said the details were still being worked out and put @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t see that there is yet final agreement on the language of what is the scope of that accountability board , ” he said .


washingtonpost--2020-03-27--Analysis | Surviving the Airline Wipeout Isn’t About Balance Sheets

Don ’ t look to the balance sheet and statements of income and cashflows : The answer , as we ’ ve argued , is buried in the list of major shareholders that most companies include toward the end of their annual reports .
There isn ’ t an airline on the planet that would be able to hunker down and survive the worst-case scenario for the Covid-19 pandemic — an 18-month-plus shutdown of much of the global aviation industry .
Take one rough-and-ready measure , the cash ratio , which is the ability to pay for liabilities over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ easily sold securities .
Of the 29 largest carriers by revenue , not a single airline can boast a cash ratio higher than one , meaning they ’ d all run short of money before satisfying their creditors .
Alternatively , if you can cut general operating expenses and aircraft lease liabilities by , say , 60 % and assume that all prepaid tickets are refunded with no drain on net assets , you can add Air Canada , IAG SA , JetBlue Airways Corp. , Alaska Air Group Inc. , and Southwest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that sort of adjusted cash ratio , all of those carriers would have enough funds to see them through the year — but the rest of the global airline industry would go to the wall .
That ’ s why having a rich patron is more important than ever .
In the case of Singapore Air , the key player is state-owned investment fund Temasek Holdings Pte.
, which already owns 55 % of the stock and may end up with far more if other investors don ’ t take up their entitlements @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Aviation has been a cornerstone of Singapore ’ s national development policy since the 1970s , both through Singapore Air and another Temasek investment , Changi Airport .
Economic downturns — with Singapore ’ s growth contracting 10.6 % in the first quarter — are no time for governments to shirk their commitment to long-term expansion , and SIA has been at the core of that vision .
The S $ 5.3 billion equity issue will be the largest rights offering the global airline industry has ever seen , and implies drastic dilution @ @ @ @ @ @ @ subscribe — especially once the S $ 9.7 billion bond tranche converts to equity 10 years from now .
That prospect pushed the shares down more than 10 % before recovering to a 3.5 % drop midday .
Still , the amount is so gobsmacking that it should put to rest any questions about Singapore Air ’ s ability to weather this crisis .
The S $ 15 billion total would be sufficient to cover two years ’ worth of short-term liabilities at current levels , and is roughly equivalent to its entire @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does this mean for other airlines ?
The ones most at risk are those that neither have the relatively ample liquidity of the Japanese , North American and western European carriers mentioned above , nor the benefit of a friendly government shareholder or wealthy parent to bail them out .
Among the less-liquid carriers with a free float of more than 50 % , Air France-KLM , Turk Hava Yollari AO , and SAS AB still retain government shareholdings that might be called upon to help out in a crisis ; Qantas Airways @ @ @ @ @ @ @ history of state ownership which may serve the same purpose ; and Korean Air Lines Co. and Asiana Airlines Inc. have historically been indulged within South Korea ’ s chaebol system of conglomerates .
The three most prominent players left — major U.S. carriers Delta Air Lines Inc. , American Airlines Group Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. — saw their shares surge this week after Congress moved through a bailout bill providing around $ 25 billion of support .
Still , that amount would only cover about six months of liabilities , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ piece of the action too .
Three low-cost carriers — EasyJet Plc , Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA and SpiceJet Ltd. — may also find themselves in a spot , dependent on the ability and willingness of their entrepreneurial founders to dig into their pockets if things get tight .
There will be plenty of bankruptcies in aviation over the coming year , but this industry has always lived close to the edge .
Most of the biggest players have gotten where they are by working their connections to governments and wealthy patrons to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ thing survives the crisis of coronavirus , it will be the strength of nation states .


washingtonpost--2020-03-27--Analysis | Can I Get It? What’s Known About Virus Transmission

In its first major report on the Covid-19 outbreak , the WHO said the virus spreads in respiratory droplets -- spatters of liquid that are sometimes visible to the naked eye -- forcefully expelled from an infected person ’ s cough or sneeze .
These are usually heavy enough to fall immediately to the ground or surrounding surfaces .
Infection could occur if the droplets reach the mouth , nose or possibly the eye of someone nearby , either directly or via a hand that has touched a so-called fomite -- a contaminated surface or object such as a doorknob @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the coronavirus can survive as many as four hours on copper , 24 hours on cardboard , 48 hours on stainless steel and 72 hours on plastic .
The WHO recommends people wash their hands frequently and keep a distance of least 1 meter ( 3 feet ) from anyone who has a fever , cough or other respiratory symptoms .
It advises against shaking hands , hugging and kissing for now .
For households with a suspected or confirmed case of infection , the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much as possible and cleaning and disinfecting “ high-touch surfaces ” in common areas -- such as switches , tables and remotes -- daily .
When people sneeze , cough or even breathe , they also emit particles so small that instead of falling right to the ground , these so-called aerosols can float for a time through the air .
When a virus is carried by such particulates , its odds of infecting people are higher because of the potential for them to be inhaled .
According to the WHO report , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reported for the new coronavirus virus , though it “ can be envisaged ” in health-care facilities conducting procedures such as a tracheotomy .
Researchers who aerosolized it intentionally found active virus can float in the air for as many as three hours .
This risk is one reason medical workers who deal with suspected or confirmed Covid-19 patients are directed to wear face masks , specifically the more sophisticated type known as respirators .
It ’ s less clear how helpful masks are for the hordes of regular people rushing out to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ few small studies have suggested that widespread use of face masks by the public may have reduced transmission in outbreaks of two other respiratory diseases , influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS .
However , the evidence is not generally considered conclusive .
And with masks in short supply , most public health authorities have argued that everyone is better off if they are reserved for those who actually require them and who can ’ t avoid exposure to people who are infected .
Another possible route of transmission is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ using the toilet , and then touching surfaces that healthy people then come in contact with .
Some patients have been found to have live virus particles in their stool .
The WHO said in its report that the fecal-to-oral route does not appear to be a significant pathway for the novel coronavirus .
To the extent it is a means of transmission , sanitizing bathrooms , food-preparation and serving areas could help slow the virus , in addition to regular hand-washing .
They may be a source of infection if they have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ respiratory secretions or feces .
The virus was found to have spread readily among food service workers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship , where about one in five people became infected while it was quarantined off Yokohama , Japan .
Chinese health officials recommended strengthened sanitation and hygiene measures in epidemic areas .
These include drinking boiled water , avoiding eating raw food , washing hands frequently , disinfecting toilets and preventing water and food from being contaminated by patients .
According to U.S. officials , the coronavirus has not been detected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ treatment methods that use filtration and disinfection should remove or inactivate the virus .
After the infection appeared in babies born to mothers with the disease in China , the possibility was raised that the virus could be passed in utero .
Subsequent studies reached different conclusions .
One looked at nine pregnant women infected with the coronavirus who gave birth to uninfected babies .
No virus was detected in amniotic fluid , cord blood , the babies ’ throats or in breast milk , suggesting that transmission from mother to child occurs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in China reported on the case of a mother with Covid-19 who gave birth to a baby that had elevated antibody levels two hours after birth .
That suggests the baby was infected in utero , since the antibodies aren ’ t transferred to the fetus via the placenta , and usually don ’ t appear until three to seven days after infection .


washingtonpost--2020-06-05--Analysis | This Is Bad, But It’s Not Looking Like the Depression

Today ’ s jobless numbers aren ’ t directly comparable with those from the 1930s because before 1948 the government didn ’ t collect employment data the way it does now .
Still , people have tried .
On its website , the Bureau of Labor Statistics cites 1970s research by John Dunlop of Harvard University and Walter Galenson of Cornell University calculating that the annual jobless rate peaked at 24.9 % in 1933 .
The National Industrial Conference Board , a business organization now known as the Conference Board , estimated at the time that the monthly unemployment rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and 1933 , peaking at 25.6 % in May 1933 .
Kathryn Edwards , an associate economist at RAND Corp. , a research organization , says it would be a mistake to put too much faith in those Depression-era estimates .
What ’ s safe to say , she says , is that “ this is the worst we ’ ve ever had ” since then .
The longer joblessness lasts , the more damage it does .
Many economists expect the unemployment rate to fall quickly as the economy reopens .
According @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the unemployed in May were considered to be on temporary layoff , down from 78 % in April but up from a pre-recession average of 13 % .
On the other hand , that 73 % figure is inflated by a change in the BLS ’ s methodology .
Usually layoffs are considered temporarily only if a person has been given a return date or expects to be recalled within six months .
The BLS said in a note accompanying the April jobs report that “ in light of the uncertainty of circumstances @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to call all coronavirus-related layoffs temporary even if the person didn ’ t know when he or she was returning .
Wages fell broadly during the Depression , dropping an estimated 34 % in manufacturing and 17 % in railroads from late 1929 to 1932 , according to a 1933 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research .
Prices for farm products -- a sector that then involved about a quarter of all workers -- fell in the early years of the Depression because demand was so weak : An index of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from a base of 100 in 1926 .
Even though consumer prices also fell , the drop in earnings meant that even many people who still had jobs couldn ’ t keep up with interest payments on mortgages and other types of debt .
Things aren ’ t likely to be as bad this time , although prices did fall in March and April and some companies have cut pay temporarily .
The Federal Reserve said in April that most of the system ’ s 12 regional banks reported “ general wage softening @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as grocery stores that were awarding temporary ‘ hardship ’ or ‘ appreciation ’ pay increases.
” This is one category in which the current recession is likely to appear worse than the Depression .
Bankruptcy filings remained rare in the 1930s in large part because the law was tilted against debtors and bankruptcy carried more of a stigma than it does now .
Until the Chandler Act of 1938 companies filing usually had to liquidate their assets , instead of getting to work out a restructuring plan .
In contrast , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic recession will cause a surge in bankruptcies , although they are only starting to show in the data .
Hertz Global , J.C. Penney Co. and Neiman Marcus were among the 28 companies that sought bankruptcy protection in May , bringing the total this year to 99 and putting 2020 on pace to top the 2008 level .
A 1932 study by the New York City Health Dept .
found that 20.5 % of the children examined were suffering from malnutrition .
The problem was likely worse elsewhere because New York at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a week per family , according to one textbook .
That ’ s the equivalent of $ 60 today .
Access to food is also a problem in this recession .
In a Household Pulse Survey conducted May 14-19 , the Census Bureau found 14 % of households with children under 18 didn ’ t have enough to eat sometimes or often in the previous week .
In the early years of the Depression there was no safety net aside from help provided by churches , charities , labor unions and family members @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was legislated by Wisconsin in 1932 .
Social Security and the Works Progress Administration , two of the most famous New Deal programs , weren ’ t signed into law until 1935 .
A measure of how little the federal government did is that it ran a budget surplus in 1930 and a deficit of only half a percent of gross domestic product in 1931 .
Despite that stringency , Franklin Roosevelt ran for president in 1932 on a promise to balance the budget .
The biggest the deficit ever got during the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This time , Congress has acted both more quickly and more aggressively .
As a result of large stimulus programs , in April the federal budget deficit nearly doubled to 9 % of GDP .
Government social benefits accounted for a third of personal income in April , up from 19 % before the pandemic hit , according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis .
“ Those who lost their jobs and were able to file for unemployment are doing pretty well , ” says Susan Houseman , research director at the W.E @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Kalamazoo , Michigan .
“ Over half are making more than when they were fully employed.
” The Federal Reserve helped cause the stock market crash of October 1929 , which triggered the Depression , by raising interest rates to stop speculation in stocks .
In 1932 it raised rates again to defend the value of the dollar .
At the same time , prices were falling , so real rates — that is , rates adjusted for inflation or deflation — reached crippling highs .
In 1932 , rates on four- to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but consumer prices fell 12 % , producing a real interest rate of 14.73 % .
When money costs that much it strongly discourages borrowing .
This April , in contrast , the average interest rate on three-month commercial paper was 0.98 % and the yearly change in consumer prices was 0.3 % , for a more affordable real interest rate of 0.68 % .
Talk of another Depression was rampant in March , when the stock market seemed to be in freefall .
The Standard & Poor ’ s 500 index fell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even faster than stocks ’ decline in the 1930s .
But the index has since recovered most of the lost ground , which helps economic growth by making consumers and businesses feel wealthier and more optimistic -- though there ’ s no shortage of worries that the market may be too sanguine about the course of the pandemic .
In the Depression the predecessor to the S & P 500 fell 86 % from peak to trough .


washingtonpost--2020-05-26--Analysis | What Are the New Laws China Is Pushing for Hong Kong?

The national security law would be aimed at acts of treason , secession , sedition and subversion .
Officials in Beijing have said the measure would also seek to counter terrorism and foreign interference in Hong Kong .
Separately , Hong Kong lawmakers are considering legislation that would punish anyone who shows disrespect for China ’ s national anthem -- something that is already a crime in the mainland .
Hong Kong ’ s mini-constitution , or Basic Law , requires the local legislature to reform colonial-era security laws , still referring to “ Her Majesty , ” with measures @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first attempt to do so , in 2003 , failed in the face of massive demonstrations .
Some of the proposed changes then , such as for sedition , were described as “ less draconian ” than the British regulations still on the books .
But many feared their rights and freedoms would devolve to mainland levels .
Catholic and Protestant clerics warned it could lead to churches being banned .
The protests killed the bill and likely contributed to the resignation in 2005 of the city ’ s first chief executive , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have tried since then .
The new laws from Beijing are expected to be readied in as soon as one or two months .
The China-backed Hong Kong government faces another potential summer of unrest , after months of often violent protests last year that ground to a halt due to the pandemic but have since resumed .
Police and other officials have repeatedly warned of the risk of terrorism .
In addition , the anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre in Beijing , a flash point for tensions in Hong Kong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with a huge vigil that could see more protests .
There ’ s a key election coming in September for the citywide Legislative Council , with Beijing bracing for a repeat of the surprise , landslide victory by the pro-democracy opposition camp in last year ’ s district council elections .
And China has seen its relationship with the U.S. worsen dramatically , with tensions rising on fronts from Hong Kong to trade and allegations regarding the initial handling of the coronavirus .
Under the plan laid out May 22 , legislators in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to safeguard national security , ” which would be included in an annex to Hong Kong ’ s Basic Law .
The Hong Kong government then “ promulgates and implements them.
” In addition , the national legislators would work with “ related parties ” to “ strengthen the building of special institutions , enforcement mechanisms and law enforcement forces ” so as to “ ensure effective implementation , ” according to Wang Chen , vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People ’ s Congress , China ’ s rubber-stamp @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China ’ s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hong Kong , said the city ’ s legal system won ’ t change and the judiciary would remain independent .
According to the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong , however , the laws “ would be passed without scrutiny by the local legislature , would allow mainland agencies to operate in the city as needed , and require the Hong Kong government to establish new institutions to safeguard national security.
” Li Xiaobing , an expert on Hong Kong , Macau and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China , was quoted by the Global Times , a Chinese government mouthpiece , as saying criminal suspects wouldn ’ t necessarily be taken to the mainland .
He said courts specializing in national security crimes could be set up in Hong Kong , or the city could follow Macau in allowing Chinese judges and prosecutors to handle such cases .
Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam , who is supported by Beijing , has defended the plan , insisting the city ’ s freedoms would be preserved .
She has dismissed concerns @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , two systems , ” the principle by which China has governed the city since its return from British rule .
But some 200 political figures from 23 countries , including Hong Kong ’ s last colonial governor , Chris Patten , jointly criticized Beijing ’ s plan .
The U.K. , Australian and Canadian foreign ministers said they were “ deeply concerned.
” U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo called it a “ disastrous proposal.
” Pompeo had delayed an annual report on the city ’ s status , the basis for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was bipartisan , with likely Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden saying America should urge the world to condemn China on Hong Kong .
Lam is pushing ahead with it , saying in May that it would get priority in the city ’ s legislature despite the risk of creating another political flashpoint .
The bill , introduced in early 2019 , and had been seen as another potential flashpoint .
The bill allows for a fine and jail sentence of up to three years for people who “ willfully ” alter or insult @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ distorted or derogatory ” manner , anywhere from online posts to sporting events .
Called “ March of the Volunteers , ” the anthem was penned during China ’ s struggle against the Japanese and later adopted by the People ’ s Republic of China .
Among Hong Kong ’ s democracy supporters , especially the young , the anthem has become a symbol of Communist Party interference and has often drawn boos during soccer matches .
The protest camp last year created its own anthem , called “ Glory to Hong @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-02-13--Analysis | China’s Coronavirus Is Bringing Alibaba to Its Knees

Those two divisions combined accounted for 52.4 % of revenue in the December quarter .
If their sales fall , China ’ s largest company could post its first revenue decline on record .
( 1 ) It ’ s also possible that other businesses , such as cloud computing and fresh food delivery , will pick up the slack , but there ’ s no guarantee .
Chief Executive Officer Daniel Zhang described the epidemic and resulting widespread quarantine as a Black Swan event .
The message : This will hurt , but it will be a one-off .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarter because it gives clues about how the e-commerce giant was faring before the COVID-19 virus appeared on the scene .
Although revenue continued to grow at a respectable 38 % , that was the slowest in almost four years and the smallest beat against estimates in at least a year .
Its earnings-per-share beat was the slimmest in more than a year .
Importantly , its bread-and-butter core commerce business , which accounts for 88 % of sales , continues to weaken .
This division was propped up by acquired units in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out , customer management ( advertising ) revenue and commissions combined climbed 21 % , almost 4 percentage points slower than the prior quarter and 5.5 percentage points less than a year ago .
Bear in mind , the December quarter includes Alibaba ’ s big Nov. 11 Single ’ s Day bonanza , which is supposed to push revenue skyward .
Clearly , this event is losing its luster .
Among the numerous problems Alibaba faces is a delay in employees returning to work after the Lunar New Year break , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This means that merchants can ’ t ship orders , leaving a significant number of packages undelivered .
Trips made through its travel business have been canceled — with the company offering full refunds — and restaurant bookings are down .
Orders for fresh food delivery have increased , though .
Beyond that , the company has to bear the costs of what is best described as being a good corporate citizen .
Its fintech business , Ant Financial , is waiving or cutting interest rates on loans , and executives have elected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It ’ s also making direct and indirect donations — including 469 million yuan ( $ 67 million ) in supplies it procured from around the world — and ramping up free services it already offers such as the DingTalk communications app , which is being used in online education and work-from-home situations .
Executives did their best to turn lemons into lemonade .
More people are integrating digital technologies into their daily lives — more than 150 million daily health check-ins have been recorded on DingTalk — and Alibaba ’ s ability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ height of this emergency could make the company even more indispensable in people ’ s daily lives once the dust settles .
If that optimistic view of the crisis plays out , then Alibaba might bounce back stronger than ever .
But investors shouldn ’ t ignore the fact that the business was already becoming weaker before the Black Swan arrived .


washingtonpost--2020-02-13--Analysis | Will the Man in the Funny Hat Replace Angela Merkel?

Germany ’ s been in turmoil since Feb. 10 , when the former heir apparent to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor , Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer , announced that she would not be a candidate , and would also stand down as boss of the center-right Christian Democratic Union ( CDU ) , to which both women and Laschet belong .
AKK , as she ’ s known , added that she ’ d like to stay on as defense minister , but would concentrate on facilitating an orderly handover to the eventual party leader and candidate , to be decided at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ day , however , a consensus emerged in Berlin that this slow timetable just won ’ t work .
The world is too unstable , and its economy , buffeted by trade wars and a coronavirus , is too fragile for the European Union ’ s largest country to take a year-long policy sabbatical .
Within the EU , Germany is due to take over the rotating presidency of the Council of Ministers this summer , just as controversies loom about the bloc ’ s budget , its enlargement to the Balkans , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transition is necessary .
And yet , it ’ s also clear that the choice of the CDU ’ s next leader must coincide with a potentially wrenching debate about the party ’ s future direction , after 20 years of Merkel leading it , 14 of those as chancellor .
In particular , the party must clarify how centrist or conservative it wants to be , and how it will deal with the far-right Alternative for Germany ( AfD ) .
After all , it was the AfD that — with a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Feb. 5 — sparked this whole crisis .
One man who would represent a clear break with Merkel ’ s legacy is Friedrich Merz , 64 .
He was a leading conservative politician in the 1990s until he was ousted as the CDU ’ s parliamentary leader in 2002 , by none other than Merkel .
Ever since , the two have hated each other .
Ideologically , Merz stands against Merkel ’ s woolly centrism .
He believes that confrontation is good for democracy .
He ’ s unapologetically pro-business , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tax reform so radical that Germans would be able to fit their entire returns on the back of a beer coaster .
Because Merz is so conservative , on migration and much else , he ’ s said to be the Christian Democrat the AfD fears most , since he might attract some of its voters back to the center .
( Like the other candidates , Merz has ruled out ever cooperating with the AfD ) .
Merz ’ s weakness is that he ’ s been out of politics for years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a “ zombie ” by detractors .
Moreover , during his time away he made bags of money running the German arm of BlackRock Inc .
Being rich and a private-equity guy is a liability in German politics .
Another man who would make a clean separation from Merkelism is Jens Spahn , 39 .
He ’ s been impressing Germans with his legislative zeal as health minister .
Like Merz , he ’ s also considered an arch-conservative , with the twist that he can simultaneously appear woke because he ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , he would continue a trend of youngish , male and rather brash leaders in Europe , as in neighboring Austria or France .
Then there ’ s the wild card , Markus Soeder ( 53 ) .
He ’ s premier of Bavaria and leader of the CDU ’ s “ sister party , ” the CSU .
By tradition , the two Christian Union parties nominate a joint candidate for chancellor and form one group in the federal parliament .
So he ’ ll have to sign off on the nominee @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that nominee , if he sees no clear winner emerging in his sister party .
Currently , though , Laschet seems to have decent odds , after a clever charm offensive .
Laschet , Merz and Spahn are all from North Rhine-Westphalia , the region with the largest population and the biggest CDU delegation , which Laschet runs .
In return for support , he appears to have offered Merz ( who has also signaled his interest in Merkel ’ s job ) either the finance or the economics ministry in a Laschet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s parliamentary leader , a top job that ’ s also a launching board for the chancellorship .
Soeder could stay on his Bavarian throne but get better cabinet positions for the CSU in Berlin .
A Chancellor Laschet would represent the least abrupt break with Merkelism .
By temperament , as displayed on that Aachen stage , he wants to motivate , mediate , de-escalate .
He ’ s currently governing with the pro-business Free Democrats in his state , but is also friendly with the Greens , who would probably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In talk-shows , where Laschet ’ s a perennial guest , he ’ s masterful at saying nothing substantive and offending nobody .
Because Laschet gets along with Merkel , the two could coexist during an awkward transition period , as he leads the party and the campaign and she runs the chancellery .
Then again , one lesson AKK drew this week as she was resigning is that those functions should never be separated again , for they weaken the candidate .
So any successor might insist that Merkel leaves earlier , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trigger snap elections , and immediately kick off the campaign .
Good thing Laschet ’ s been brushing up on his jokes .


washingtonpost--2020-02-13--Analysis | Airbus and Boeing Have Both Forgotten How to Make Money

In theory , building commercial jets is a fantastic business .
There aren ’ t many competitors — Airbus and Boeing Co essentially have a duopoly in large aircraft — and demand is booming .
As people in emerging markets get richer they want to travel more and climate worries haven ’ t dissuaded most people from flying yet .
The trouble is that designing and launching a new commercial airliner consumes massive amounts of capital ; and that ’ s if all goes to plan .
Typically it doesn ’ t .
The delayed A220 , then known as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at least $ 6 billion to develop and caused its debts to balloon to an unsustainable level .
Airbus came to the rescue in 2017 by taking a majority stake in the program .
But even now , long after the plane entered service , it is a burden on Airbus ’ s cash flow .
Another reason why Bombardier sought Airbus ’ s help back in 2017 was that Boeing persuaded the U.S. to impose punitive import tariffs , thereby hurting the Canadian manufacturer .
Trade and tariff threats are multiplying in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The better capitalized Airbus is more able to withstand these problems than Bombardier , but it ’ s not immune .
Because of its World Trade Organization dispute with Boeing , the Americans have also imposed tariffs on the planes Airbus exports from Europe to the U.S .
Unlike Bombardier , Airbus and Boeing both have large defense business whose cash flows help fund their massive development costs .
Even that ’ s no guarantee of success .
Pension costs ( a function of the large workforces needed to build big planes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s pension deficit has swelled to about 8 billion euros because of low interest rates .
And then there ’ s stuff that just seems to come out of the blue .
Airbus disclosed an astonishing 5.6 billion euros of negative adjustments to its annual results .
Much of that relates to the fines Airbus must pay to settle bribery charges brought by various international authorities .
But the company also suffered yet another 1.2 billion-euro charge on the troubled A400m military transporter program , more than 200 million euros of costs related @ @ @ @ @ @ @ other one-off costs .
For a while it seemed as though Boeing had cracked the financial alchemy of commercial aerospace .
Soaring cash flows were returned to shareholders via a massive share buyback program .
After two fatal crashes involving its 737 Max , we now know that success came at the cost of squeezing suppliers , browbeating regulators and neglecting safety .
In 2019 Boeing reported its first yearly loss in two decades .
Following the disappointments of the A380 superjumbo program — a seemingly bottomless money pit — and various production @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shareholders were hopeful that it too would start converting its massive order book into cash that could be returned to them .
Airbus ’ s performance has certainly improved , yet that windfall never seems to arrive .
Airbus ’ s 2020 production and profit guidance was weaker than expected .
It should generate 4 billion euros of free cash flow this year , but once the corruption fines and several hundred million euros of tax and legal costs are paid , there will be precious little left .
The coronavirus could yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have to cancel orders and there could be an impact on the supply chain .
While Airbus is raising the dividend by 9 % , share buybacks will have to wait .


washingtonpost--2020-02-13--Analysis | The System for Diagnosing Epidemics Is Failing

That change not only upped the case total dramatically – it also threw into doubt assumptions about how much the disease has spread and how well it is being contained .
It also revealed a critical vulnerability in the world ’ s ability to combat the virus and others like it .
If we can ’ t accurately and rapidly diagnose the disease , how can we control it ?
It will be months if not a year or more before an effective medicine is broadly available .
Knowing who has the disease and whether to treat or isolate them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ impact .
Unfortunately , diagnostic efforts often reap less profit and get less funding than drug research .
That ’ s contributed to an ecosystem that isn ’ t up to the current challenge .
In order to confirm infection , health workers now must send blood samples to central labs , which can test for the genetic signature of the virus — but are becoming increasingly overwhelmed .
China has rapidly approved new tests , but there aren ’ t nearly enough kits available .
America ’ s Centers for Disease Control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but some of the hundreds of test kits it has sent out are flawed .
Even if there was enough testing capability , this approach has issues .
Beyond labs getting overwhelmed , as they have in China , these tools aren ’ t capable of detecting the disease in its earliest stages .
That lack of early detection means infections are inevitably missed , leaving us less able to contain it or know how far it has spread .
Delays also raise the risk that healthy people get stuck in quarantine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contract the virus .
Catching up to the demand for lab tests would only be a start .
There needs o be a well-funded effort aimed at creating rapid tools to use on the front lines , from hospitals to airports and stranded cruise ships .
Dozens of clinical trials of potential treatments are underway , testing everything from repurposed HIV drugs to traditional Chinese medicine .
The Gates Foundation , government agencies , a Norway-based anti-outbreak superteam , and a half-dozen pharmaceutical companies are collaborating on multiple vaccines .
There doesn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the rapid diagnostic side .
Governments also need to be able to test blood samples for antibodies at a population level to see how far the disease has spread .
Right now , almost all cases outside of China are tied to known infections .
But it ’ s entirely possible that the sometimes relatively mild disease is spreading in the U.S. and other countries without anyone knowing .
Without better tests we may not know until outbreaks become too big to stop .
Catching diseases isn ’ t as sexy as preventing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lot more attention during the current outbreak and ahead of the next one .


washingtonpost--2020-02-13--Analysis | Three Risks for Banking in the Time of Coronavirus

Things were looking tough even before the virus , though DBS ended the year with record earnings of S $ 6.39 billion ( $ 4.6 billion ) , a 14 % increase .
Loans grew 4 % last year , slowing from 7 % in 2018 .
The Singapore mortgage business lost momentum after the government surprised the market in July 2018 by introducing measures to curb price gains .
Net interest margin peaked at 1.91 % in the first half before stumbling to 1.86 % in December , as the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates and started cutting.That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome epidemic , when DBS had better margins than now .
If the top headache for trade finance in 2019 was the U.S.-China spat , supply-chain disruptions would be this year ’ s migraine .
Assuming the outbreak is under control by summer , DBS foresees a 1 % to 2 % hit to annual revenue .
But what if the public health scare lasts longer and spreads wider ?
Add the risk that the Fed may be forced to cut interest rates further to deal with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outlook for loan pricing is dimmer than two months ago .
Singapore is expected to vigorously prime its fiscal pumps next Tuesday to support virus-hit businesses , such as hospitality and retail .
With local infections climbing , DBS should assume that the first half of 2020 may be a washout in its home market .
What ’ s more relevant is whether there will be a sharp recovery , which is what happened after SARS .
After dropping 13 % in the first half , net profit for 2003 tapered to a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doubled the following year .
DBS had to face SARS when its balance sheet hadn ’ t fully healed from the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis .
Nonperforming loans , which had surged to 13 % of the total in 1999 , were still elevated at about 6 % in December 2002 .
Contrast that with 1.5 % bad loans at the end of last December ; it ’ s a figure that will keep coming back for scrutiny as the year progresses.The credit quality in Singapore might still hold up , as banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United Overseas Bank Ltd. , the smallest of Singapore ’ s three homegrown lenders , said Wednesday that it ’ s setting aside S $ 3 billion to provide relief , especially to small companies .
Those affected will meet only interest obligations this year .
Principal repayment can wait .
But DBS ’ s regional presence could be problematic .
A sharp tumble in either the over-leveraged Chinese economy , the epicenter of the epidemic , or turbulence in the frothy Hong Kong property market would put investors ’ focus back on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ volumes , pricing pressures and spikes in credit costs will complete the trifecta of risks for Asian regional banks .
Globally , banks garner the biggest chunk of their near $ 2 trillion annual pretax profit from Asia .
The growth rate of that earnings pool collapsed to just 3 % between 2014 and 2018 from 12 % in the preceding four years , according to new research by McKinsey & Co. , which comes with a dire message : “ Asia ’ s banks must reinvent themselves or risk disappearing.
” When @ @ @ @ @ @ @ acquisition opportunities for a well-capitalized lender like DBS .
That ’ s a story for a later time .
The worry right now is that customers won ’ t be doing M & A deals because of business uncertainty and anxiety about travel and meetings .
That can ’ t be good news for investment banking fees .
Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services .
He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews .
He has also worked for the Straits Times , ET NOW and @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-02-13--Analysis | SoftBank’s Biggest Name Is One Son Dare Not Mention

Son couldn ’ t escape mentioning WeWork , formally know as The We Co. , because it ’ s the elephant in the room weighing down the Vision Fund and by extension all of SoftBank .
The $ 100 billion fund now has 88 portfolio companies .
But Elliott Management Corp. , the investment firm founded by Singer , was conspicuous by its absence in Son ’ s vocabulary .
As a result , his evasion became an unintended key feature of his entire live performance .
The famous activist investor was still there , writ large in a statement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Standards for Investments.
” Just last week , Elliott confirmed it had taken a nearly $ 3 billion stake in SoftBank because it saw room to close the gap between the value ascribed by equity investors and what its own balance sheet indicates .
That news helped drive SoftBank ’ s share price up 8 % for the largest gain in a year , a jump that was topped just a few days later when the merger of the two U.S. telecom firms passed the final hurdle .
Elliott has three key strategies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boost the stock : a $ 20 billion share buyback , more independent directors , and better corporate governance , especially with regard to its investments .
SoftBank ’ s press release on the governance , though , looks to be lip service rather than any kind of deep-seated reform .
The four paragraph statement used the term standards eight times , but doesn ’ t actually detail what they are .
We ’ re required to have faith that they exist and are robust .
This new corporate governance policy wasn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and Son didn ’ t provide any details during two hours on stage .
It wasn ’ t until two minutes from the end of Son ’ s set remarks that he even acknowledged Elliott , and then not by name but merely as “ an activist investor.
” He used the reference simply as proof that his pet peeve — that SoftBank ’ s share price severely lags its book value — was shared by others .
Son ’ s response , and many that followed , were consistent in dodging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but in recognizing that the U.S. fund even had a valid point .
He demurred on the topic of buybacks , noting that they ’ d been done in the past .
He claimed to have had plans to appoint more independent directors even before Elliott brought it up .
He indicated that improving standards was already on the radar .
Investors hoping for some contrition after the WeWork disaster — which saw SoftBank bail out the office rental company after an aborted IPO — would be sorely disappointed .
Anyone believing that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ enhanced management standards is naive .
In his own words , corporate governance of startups is exercised by simply not investing in a problematic company .
About the closest Son got to acknowledging any weaknesses in his strategy of making huge bets on unprofitable companies in the hope they ’ ll come good was to admit that he ’ d dialed back the size of the planned $ 108 billion SoftBank Vision Fund 2 — a possibility I foreshadowed last month .
Smaller and more circumspect bets may now be on the table @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investors will need to contend with the more immediate fact that the Alibaba IPO was a one-time bonus , while the rest of SoftBank ’ s portfolio is at the mercy of stock markets at a time when the coronavirus epidemic is sending share prices on a roller-coaster ride .
So while people may have high hopes about the role Elliott could play in spurring SoftBank to change its ways , they ought to take note of the fact that Son barely utters the name .


washingtonpost--2020-05-30--Analysis | Long Overdue, Berlin’s New Airport Is Still Worth Celebrating

Over the years , other opening dates came and passed for BER , owing to construction flaws , from failing fire-safety vents to elevators too short for their shafts .
Now , though , in a triumph of hope over experience , Berliners are daring to get excited once again about what ’ s been called their “ phantom airport.
” Tegel , largely cobwebbed since the Covid-19 outbreak , will start shutting down in June , and BER is actually ready to open in October .
It ’ s ironic , of course , that Berlin is finally bringing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic is keeping most people from checking in .
And yet BER is still worth celebrating , if only as a symbol .
That ’ s because the tale of Germany ’ s runways and terminals also reflects the country ’ s dramatic history .
Each former and current airport has a chapter in the story of a nation that used to be aggressive , tragic and divided , before becoming successful , rich and reunified .
In a sense , the opening of BER confers closure on a traumatic past and marks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There was a time , in the roaring 1920s , when Berlin ’ s oldest airport , located in Tempelhof near the city center , was actually Europe ’ s busiest .
Then Adolf Hitler took over and rebuilt Tempelhof in the 1930s to fit his Nazi visions .
A few years later , the city , country and continent lay in ruins , and the Americans took Tempelhof as theirs .
Soon Tempelhof got itself a new and more heroic image .
It was where American , British and French “ raisin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at one point — during the Berlin blockade of 1948-1949 , to feed a population that was entirely surrounded by the Soviets .
Even after the airlift prevailed , however , it was clear that German aviation during the Cold War would take new routes .
Until 1990 , only the airlines of the three Western allies — such as Pan Am , British Airways and Air France — were allowed to fly to West Berlin .
Although the Americans kept some of the glamor of Tempelhof and the French expanded Tegel , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sideshow .
So the action moved to West Germany .
The region of Hesse grasped that , being in the middle of the country ’ s new geography , it could turn Frankfurt , often called Germany ’ s “ secret capital , ” into a continental traffic node .
This had a certain economic and historical resonance .
In the Middle Ages , emperors had been crowned here ; later , it was where Rothschilds built financial dynasties .
By the 1960s Frankfurt was becoming “ Bankfurt , ” a sort @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a promising place for an airport , and Lufthansa , the German flag carrier , gradually made FRA its hub .
As West Germany ’ s postwar economy boomed , other metropolises and their airports also thrived .
Stuttgart ( STR ) benefited from serving the Swabian heartland of Germany ’ s vaunted Mittelstand of family-owned firms .
The main airport in the populous Rhineland is Duesseldorf ( DUS ) , which by the late 1970s took second place behind FRA for a while .
But the real success story was Munich .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ was an economic backwater .
This changed , as successive state leaders , most notably Franz Josef Strauss between 1978 and 1988 , hewed to traditional culture while also wooing cutting-edge companies and entrepreneurs , a strategy later dubbed “ laptops and lederhosen.
” A centerpiece of this effort was a new airport , named after Strauss .
The old one , Riem , was cramped and gloomy .
The new one , MUC , which opened in 1992 , was light-swept and transparent but still easily navigable and cosy — a perfect @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Germany strove to be .
MUC became a second hub for Lufthansa .
At the same time , the decision was made to move the federal government from Bonn back to Berlin .
So , during the 1990s , planning began for an airport appropriate to Berlin ’ s new role , while Tegel and Schoenefeld ( SXF ) , formerly used by the East Germans , kept handling the booming traffic .
Tempelhof , used mainly by smaller planes in its final years , was eventually closed in 2008 .
Today its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ But even as these old names fade into history and the long-awaited BER takes over , Berlin won ’ t ever recapture its prewar dominance .
Like the U.S. but unlike France , say , Germany is decentralized in its politics , economy and transportation infrastructure .
The country has many competing hubs .
To pessimists , BER symbolizes Germany ’ s bad developments .
Its highly publicized bureaucratic and engineering fiascoes have dented the country ’ s former reputation — not always entirely flattering — of being relentlessly meticulous and punctual .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s building airports or algorithms , is increasingly leaving economic dynamism to others , especially China .
To optimists , this too is part of Germany ’ s long historical arc to “ normality.
” Germans today are more relaxed about their national identity and place in the world than they ’ ve ever been .
That explains why they ’ ve also been nonchalant about BER ’ s travails .
The truth is , many Germans have secretly been savoring the airport headlines as a font of gossip .
Many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by boozy debates about whether humans would set foot on Mars before disembarking at BER , or whether it would be more cost-effective to rebuild the capital near a working airport .
Even the coincidence that BER is now opening in 2020 , the annus horribilis of Covid-19 , may turn out to be unexpectedly appropriate .
Experts have been worrying all along that the airport would already be too small when opened .
The pandemic has taken care of that .
As Lufthansa enters a government rescue program and people shy away @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could turn out to have just the right proportions .
That , too , is worth raising a glass to .


washingtonpost--2020-05-30--Analysis | My Corner of London Starts to Wake From Lockdown Coma

I live just off Holloway Road , the main highway heading north out of London , whose status is embodied in its official classification as the A1 .
My local pubs — the Horatia , the Victoria Tavern and the Rose , all less than five minutes ’ walk away — are shuttered , as are the nearby dry cleaners , the hairdressers and the nail salons .
Local eateries , though , are slowly coming back to life .
Five years ago , three brothers took over a discount store at 60 Holloway Road called “ Pound Baazar ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make me smile ) .
Nick , Kaski and Kush Ukaj , originally from Kosovo , renamed it “ The Barn , ” refurbished it with a rustic wooden interior and built a thriving cafe serving gourmet coffee , home-baked cakes and pastries and an all-day breakfast and lunch menu .
Then in March , Kaski , the youngest of the trio at 32 , got flu symptoms associated with the coronavirus and was forced to self-isolate in his bedroom .
The business , which closed for six weeks , has only just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Weekly revenue , which in good times could reach 6,000 pounds ( $ 7,400 ) , will drop to a couple of hundred pounds at best , says Nick , the eldest brother at 38 .
Nick has been in the restaurant game for 20 years , including stints at the Gaucho and Browns dining chains .
As a small business , he got 10,000 pounds of government assistance during lockdown .
But even if he can open fully in the next few weeks , he ’ ll struggle if he has to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of social distancing , reducing the number of covers down from the 60 the cafe can currently offer .
“ Six months with twenty people , I can ’ t survive , ” he says .
So he ’ s planning to expand his hours and his potential income by staying open in the evenings and serving wine , tapas and cheese boards .
However , this will mean less time with his family , which was a large part of his motivation for starting up on his own in the first place @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 193 Holloway Road , the Chip Inn Fish Bar serves traditional fish and chips .
The manager , Mahut , has been frying haddock and battering sausages for the past 12 years .
His decision to reopen in recent days , after furloughing his staff for six weeks , has been the highlight of my lockdown .
He also received 10,000 pounds of government assistance , and all of his staff are now back at work .
Two doors down from the fish-and-chip shop , on the other side of a closed nail @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for business a couple weeks ago with a shiny new facade and a sign proclaiming “ Under New Management.
” Even the pandemic wasn ’ t enough to derail Gurcam Killi ’ s plan to launch a new convenience store — a business he bought from his cousins that had been deteriorating for nearly a decade .
Convenience stores have been big winners during the lockdown .
Independent grocers and corner shops in the U.K. saw sales soar by more than 60 % in the three months to May 17 , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he missed out on the initial burst of panic buying that accompanied lockdown , but that sales are improving day by day .
“ You need to have the passion to do well , ” he says .
Over the road , Cookies and Scream has been selling gluten-free , vegan brownies , donuts and cookies from 130 Holloway Road for the past four years .
The business started in 2010 in Camden Market ; not long after the Holloway café opened , a fire destroyed the original premises .
After closing for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lockdown , the bakery reopened with a one-customer-at-a-time policy , to sell takeaway food and drink on Thursdays , Fridays and Saturdays .
Manager Kane Pope says it ’ s hard to estimate how much the store ’ s revenue has declined .
“ It ’ s going all right , ” he says .
“ There are lots of people around .
But reopening fully feels a long way away.
” At the Chip Inn Fish Bar , Mahut also has a strict policy of only allowing a single customer in at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ queue on the street outside .
As a result , even with London basking in good weather that stretches into the evenings , he reckons turnover is down by about 40 % since he reopened .
But he ’ s determined to pull through .
“ We ’ ve been here since 1962 , ” he says , proudly pointing to a sign testifying to the longevity of the business .
“ We ’ ll survive .
”


washingtonpost--2020-05-30--Sotheby’s Realty Gets Trump Backing Fighting Michigan Lockdown

The most important news stories of the day , curated by Post editors and delivered every morning .
By signing @ @ @ @ @ Terms of Use and Privacy Policy


washingtonpost--2020-05-20--Analysis | America Is Taking Coronavirus to Court