washingtonpost--2020-06-13--Analysis | Fighting Climate Change Means Fighting Racial Injustice

Watts ’ s scars , and triumphs , are visible in the fabric of the place .
In 20 minutes , you can walk between two landmarks both built around the same time in the mid-20th century : Watts Towers , the monumental , Gaudi-esque artwork put together from found objects ; and Jordan Downs , the decayed , low-rise housing project burdened by a notorious history of gang violence .
In between is Watts Coffee House , a restaurant and black-history time capsule that traces back to the aftermath of the 1965 riots .
Opposite sits Florence Griffith Joyner @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and former Jordan Downs resident — where Shorty points out blue sheeting stretched across the fence ; put up , he says , to block children ’ s view of the street after a shooting outside .
On the other side of the school is an urban farm called MudTown that stands out for its newness , sense of calm and sheer incongruity in south LA .
Predominantly Hispanic these days , though still with a large African-American population , Watts ’ s median household income is about half the average for California @ @ @ @ @ @ @ double .
At one point , Shorty brought me by Atlas Iron & Metal Co. , whose piles of scrap make it the sort of neighbor most communities would prefer elsewhere .
But Shorty points out the people lining up with carts to sell what they ’ ve gathered , earning themselves a little extra income while clearing sidewalks of old appliances and trash .
Crime is no longer as bad as it once was — Shorty ’ s mother was shot dead the year he enrolled in college — but remains a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can expect to live 12 years less than a fellow Angeleno lucky enough to be raised 20 miles away in affluent Brentwood .
It ’ s the sort of shocking statistic where much of the shock value lies in just how unshocked we have become by such disparities in how people live and die .
When two housing authority employees stopped by Jordan Downs to say hello that January afternoon , Shorty warned them to rinse off the dust and soil from their shoes before going home to their families .
Opposition to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ abstract nature of the threat ; would that carbon dioxide was visible like a traffic haze .
Absent that , it ’ s all too easy to ignore the problem or denounce measures to address it as job-killers .
In the grand American tradition , this then gets overlaid onto existing divisions and stereotypes , such as pitting those old coastal elites worried about the polar bears against inland or inner-city workers just trying to put food on the table .
One analysis published a year ago by researchers from the University of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Americans ’ exposure to fine particulates versus how much pollution their consumption generates .
It found non-Hispanic whites experience 17 % less exposure to pollution , on average , than is caused by their own consumption .
Conversely , African-Americans are exposed to 56 % more than their consumption generates ; the figure for the Hispanic population is 63 % more .
This is all of our environmental , health and — via that denominator of consumption — wealth disparity combined into a cloud of choking dust .
More than a decade after @ @ @ @ @ @ @ groups managed to force the passage of sister legislation to establish local air-quality monitoring and reduce local pollution .
That same year , Schwarzenegger , a staunch defender of cap-and-trade when in office , told a climate-change conference in Germany “ there aren ’ t enough conferences about people who die from cancer because they live too close to the freeway or to a port.
” Addressing this disconnect , he added , was how “ we can bring people into our crusade and then march forward in a much more successful way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for broader action means addressing issues on the ground , especially air quality , and incorporating the embodied knowledge rather than relying solely on experts .
When Oakland announced in 2009 it would draft an energy and climate action plan , local activists took it upon themselves to map out the city ’ s neighborhoods in terms of exposure to such hazards as flooding , wildfires and poor air quality .
Apart from shaping the plan , the campaign elevated local voices that might otherwise have been ignored .
Her aim is “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of environmental sustainability , but in renewing neighborhoods as healthier places with good jobs where people actually want to live — and developers actually want to invest , keeping the process going .
Like Méndez and Shorty , she stresses the need to have a seat inside the room when addressing inequities of race and place : “ You can ’ t really change it until you understand how to work the system and the economy to the benefit of communities that need it.
” One of the most striking aspects of last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was their emphasis on connecting social justice with climate policy .
For all the controversy that generated , local groups in California have been doing exactly that for years .
There can be no saving the planet without explicitly linking that to serving the neighborhood .
That applies as much to a neighborhood like Watts digging out of its toxic legacy as it does to a mining town seeing its livelihood and organizing principle wither away — leaving a polluted bequest of its own .
A hallmark of opposition to climate action is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example , fossil fuels are often touted as affordable .
But what does that word mean really if it ignores the real costs of greenhouse-gas emissions ?
Burn your chairs for heat and pretty soon you ’ ll figure out the answer .
Any effort to address these deficiencies with , say , a carbon tax is apt to draw accusations of socialism .
Yet that ’ s what we have already , only in a pernicious model that privatizes the benefits of fuel production and consumption but spreads the associated costs of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ population ( and not evenly , either ) .
It ’ s fair to say some joined-up thinking is in order , and the foundation of that is basic empathy — empathy for people we know , people we don ’ t know and people yet to come .
The same impoverished , fragmented logic that ventures we can risk the planet to somehow save the economy was also evident in calls to risk Covid-19 tearing through America ’ s elderly population in order to do the same .
It doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virulent respiratory disease represents for neighborhoods with poor air quality , either .


washingtonpost--2020-06-13--Businesses Are Facing Stop and Go as Cases Surge in Some States

Oregon ’ s Multnomah County , where much of Portland lies , was set to enter Phase 1 of reopening on Friday .
But Governor Kate Brown decided to hold that back late on Thursday .
“ Due to the lateness of the announcement last night I hope not a lot of businesses have been ramping up , bringing employees back or buying inventory -- things that come with costs , ” said Anthony Smith , Oregon state director of NFIB , representing 6,000 small businesses in Oregon .
“ That could certainly cause some additional financial hardships.
” Oregon @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on reopening plans serves as a cautionary tale for businesses across the country .
From Arizona to Texas , Covid-19 cases are surging , and decisions on what to do vary widely by state -- which makes planning for companies operating in multiple states even tougher .
Oregon isn ’ t alone .
In North Carolina , state and local officials are monitoring the sharp increase in cases as it enters the third week of Phase 2 .
In Mecklenburg County , where Charlotte is located , officials say the move into Phase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Charlotte Observer reported .
As North Carolina ’ s governor pushed back on President Trump ’ s plans for the Republican convention in Charlotte over social distancing requirements , Florida ’ s governor has given no indication he ’ s going to follow suit .
The event will now be held in Jacksonville .
Cases in Florida have climbed by 9,483 in the past seven days .
Oregon on Thursday hit its highest daily count of cases -- 178 -- since the start of the pandemic .
Large companies like Portland-based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to navigate a patchwork of advisories from across the globe , said Peter Bragdon , executive vice president at retailer .
As of Friday , 134 of the company ’ s 147 U.S. stores were open .
In the company ’ s home state , store operations depended on county , or whether they were located in malls or standalone buildings .
The opening of one store that straddled county lines was delayed as the company determined which directives it should follow .
Most of the company ’ s corporate employees are working @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sight .
It ’ s carefully considering the outlook before coming back to work , and wasn ’ t surprised by the delay in Oregon .
“ We are focused on thinking it through , ” Bragdon said on the question of when to return to the office .
“ Abnormal is the new normal , ” he said .
Small businesses are even harder hit since they often run on a shoestring .
While the vast majority of small businesses that applied for Paycheck Protection Program loans in Oregon got them , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Smith said .
“ We know that a month or two is probably the longest the majority of our members can hang on during the Covid-19 crisis , ” Smith said .
“ We have to at some point get back to work.
” Time is of the essence for Morales , from Kachka , partly because of the weather .
She was hoping to offer outdoor seating in the parking lot behind her restaurant during the summer months .
She only has until October , when the rains starts .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now is certainly the money we are going to wish we had in the fall , ” Morales said .

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washingtonpost--2020-02-03--Analysis | What’s in Modi’s Budget for Indians? Precious Little

Under this blueprint , sovereign wealth funds such as Singapore ’ s GIC Pte and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority will pay no taxes on what they earn from Indian infrastructure investment made before 2024 , even though domestic investors were miffed the budget didn ’ t scrap their long-term capital gains tax.Financiers in Mumbai are upset that the budget did little to clear the jammed arteries of credit .
But yield-starved overseas investors will get full access to parts of the rupee-denominated Indian government bond market , where 10-year yields are a juicy 6.6 % .
The overseas participation ceiling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 9 % , will rise to 15 % .
A Saudi Aramco-style initial public offering of the Life Insurance Corp. , a state-owned former monopoly with $ 434 billion in assets , would add to Wall Street banks ’ bragging rights .
The locals will have to sacrifice , though .
Funding has been cut for a rural job guarantee program even as widespread agrarian distress weighs on demand for everything from toothpaste to biscuits .
The urban middle class got thrown a carrot of lower tax rates , but it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exemptions .
Most people won ’ t .
Dividend earners will , in fact , pay higher taxes as well as a levy — albeit one they can offset against their tax bill — on sending money overseas for education or holidays .
Except for a renewed commitment to affordable housing , Modi ’ s government provided little demand stimulus .
Existing bottlenecks remain , including a large overhang of unfinished homes .
A bold rescue of troubled shadow banks , which are clogging up credit , isn ’ t in the cards @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 152 billion ) of capital expenditure is expected to grow by just 2.4 % .
Break it down , and the 6.73 trillion rupee outlay of public-sector companies will shrink by 5 % .
The remaining 4.12 trillion rupees of capital spending funded out of budgetary resources will grow , but 5 % of it will go to propping up dying state-run telecom companies .
With the private sector refusing to invest , such poor-quality public expenditure won ’ t pull up growth in nominal gross domestic product — which is what @ @ @ @ @ @ @ targeted 10 % rate , from a four-decade low of 7.5 % in the fiscal year that ends March 31 .
India ’ s fiscal situation is parlous .
I have previously argued that the country should attract patient capital from developed countries , because its domestic balance sheets — financial , corporate , government and households — are simultaneously stretched .
Meanwhile , global pension and sovereign funds are staring at chronically low interest rates , a problem that could worsen if the coronavirus plays havoc with growth in an over-leveraged world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a highway or a grid-connected solar farm is tactically sound .
So is the plan to seek India ’ s inclusion in global bond indexes .
However , an honest embrace of global capital this isn ’ t .
That would have meant reversing a 2012 weaponization of tax laws to hound investors like Vodafone Group Plc , and Cairn Energy Plc .
Vodafone ’ s entire investment in India is now worthless because of the state ’ s overreach .
Amazon.com Inc. is being snubbed because people in Modi ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Jeff Bezos-owned Washington Post is saying about it .
Yet the government ’ s bargain with its own 1.3 billion people is far from fair .
Desperate job seekers , firms and farmers are all paying a price for the fiscal deficit , which is closer to 5 % than the 3.8 % New Delhi is acknowledging for this year and a far cry from the 3.5 % projected for next .
The fudge comes at a cost : With the government cornering household savings , the cost of capital can ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bank furiously cutting its policy rate and buying longer-dated bonds .
Inconvenient truths about the deficit could jeopardize India ’ s fragile investment-grade rating .
Foreigners will stop coming .
Showing them love in the time of coronavirus may be the only idea India has right now .
But ultimately it ’ s Indians who will have to believe in a pro-growth message to generate a return for themselves as well as for global capital .
It ’ s this link of trust that ’ s missing .
Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ services .
He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews .
He has also worked for the Straits Times , ET NOW and Bloomberg News .


washingtonpost--2020-02-03--Analysis | There’s One Metric That Can Stabilize China’s Markets

At first glance , these are encouraging signs , particularly from a central bank that ’ s been reluctant to cut rates even as a damaging trade war with the U.S. drags on .
Perhaps this is a signal that the PBOC will be open to the idea of helicopter money again .
China poured 4 trillion yuan into the economy after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008 .
But any boost in sentiment from Monday ’ s rate cut waned in less than 15 minutes .
No matter what China ’ s market regulators do , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That ’ s because for financial markets to stabilize , investors need to see that factories and businesses can reopen in the foreseeable future .
Consider this rout against the backdrop of the trade war , which sank the nation ’ s stock market deep into bear territory in 2018 .
Whereas a spat with the U.S. hampers China Inc. ’ s ability to sell its goods , this epidemic is preventing any production at all .
As of now , two-thirds of the economy remains shut .
So far , China ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seem to have a grip on the virus .
Take a look at the number of new cases in Hubei , the epicenter of the outbreak .
If any cautious optimism lingered last week , the latest data crush that sentiment .
As long as China struggles to contain the outbreak in Hubei , other province won ’ t dare open for business .
No local government official is willing to take the blame for spreading the virus further .
Nor are private enterprises willing to risk it .
China Evergrande Group , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ developers , said that its 1,200-plus real-estate projects and 1,000-plus sales offices will remain closed until Feb. 20 .
As to when its sprawling business will resume operation , that all depends on how the virus goes , the company says .
An optimist might say that Beijing still has the policy dry powder to stabilize its markets .
No doubt , the state remains powerful in China .
But increasingly , the economy is becoming a partnership between the public and the private sectors .
Even though local governments issued municipal bonds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spending remains anemic .
Lowering the money-market rate can only temporarily halt a slide in stocks and commodities futures ; it does nothing to the real economy if businesses aren ’ t open .
More than ever , markets are testing the effectiveness of the Chinese bureaucracy .
Shuli Ren is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian markets .
She previously wrote on markets for Barron ’ s , following a career as an investment banker , and is a CFA charterholder .


washingtonpost--2020-02-03--Analysis | Here’s How the Fight Against China’s Coronavirus Works

Within China : Officials said they would track down people who left Wuhan , a city of 11 million , before the quarantine was imposed , as many migrant workers headed back to the countryside to celebrate the Lunar New Year with their families .
Officials said they would be registered , visited frequently by medical personnel and taken for treatment if symptoms developed .
Xinhua reported that health officials in Beijing asked those returning to Wuhan from anywhere to stay at home for two weeks , record their temperature and seek treatment if they develop a cough or fever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and overworked hospital staff are straining the health care system , hampering efforts to accurately track how many people have the pathogen .
And there ’ s evidence that people may be contagious even when asymptomatic .
Elsewhere : Airports globally and border crossings with China have implemented monitoring systems including thermal scanners and questionnaires in an effort to catch cases early .
In the U.S. , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it would funnel all air traffic from China through certain airports , where passengers would be screened for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to this approach , however , is that it may miss people coming into the U.S. from places other than China who might have been infected by asymptomatic patients during the journey .
The passengers are given cards with details about what to watch for .
Social media and traditional news outlets have also spread the word .
The first two patients identified in the U.S. sought medical attention on their own accord because they were concerned that they might be infected , showing that awareness levels are high .
When a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put in isolation , often in a hospital , to prevent him or her from spreading the germs .
A medical worker takes a thorough history , trying to identify every person who has been within 6 feet ( 2 meters ) of the patient since symptoms emerged .
According to the WHO , Chinese authorities place close contacts ( family members and others living in the patient ’ s home , co-workers , possible care-givers and others ) under medical observation , which may include isolation at home with regular temperature checks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 14 days , the contacts are released , the WHO said .
Other potential contacts could be neighbors , fellow passengers on public transportation , people who attended the same social events , shopped or visited doctors at the same time .
Breaking the chain of transmission is what officials believe will ultimately curtail the outbreak and prevent a pandemic , which is an epidemic of global proportions .
Isolation is a tricky issue because it ’ s unclear how well it works or if it ’ s been put in place quickly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isolation is when an infected person sheds the virus , essentially putting it out into the world .
Scientists believe the virus is spread primarily through droplets that could be emitted by an infected person ’ s cough and transferred to their hands or surfaces and objects .
There ’ s a theoretical risk that it could spread through fine aerosol particles and feces .
Chinese authorities have said it ’ s possible people who are still incubating the virus and show no symptoms may spread it .
One such case emerged in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that was attended by an employee visiting from China who had no symptoms of disease during her stay .
There have been cases reported where the virus has spread along a four-person chain , indicating that it ’ s more transmissible than earlier thought .
Some of the most vulnerable people are the health care workers caring for seriously ill patients ; 15 cases occurred among workers at a single hospital in Wuhan .
Hong Kong , the international financial center that functions with some autonomy from China , announced travel restrictions from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and New Zealand banned visitors from China , while South Korea , Iraq , Italy and Indonesia announced travel restrictions .
Airlines reduced scheduled flights to and from China in preparation for lengthy shutdowns of service , with Delta , United and American Airlines following the lead of British Airways , Air France and Deutsche Lufthansa AG .
United and American said they would not resume until late March , and Delta not until April .
The U.S. State Department warned U.S. citizens against travel to China and said it was helping Americans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The U.S. declared a public health emergency and said that starting Feb. 2 it would bar entry to most foreign nationals who have been in China within two weeks of their arrival to the U.S .
Inside China : the government has imposed a quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in the region , a travel ban covering in excess of 50 million people .
The move came ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday period , when an estimated 3 billion trips are made , about 15 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 5 million residents left before the Jan. 23 lockdown , according to media reports .
Wenzhou , a port city of 9 million people , became the first city outside central Hubei province to impose quarantine measures , telling families that only one person will be allowed out of the house every two days to shop for necessities .
Wenzhou is in Zhejiang province , which had the highest number of confirmed cases outside Hubei .
Elsewhere : The CDC said that it was putting 195 Americans who had been repatriated from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarantine at an Air Force base in California , the first such effort since the 1960s .
All Americans who had been in Hubei province during the two weeks before their arrival would also be subject to quarantine .
Citizens returning from elsewhere in China will be subject to screening , and are being asked to stay at home for two weeks while being monitored .
Some health officials warned that in modern times , quarantines have yielded limited results .
Toronto ’ s use of quarantine wasn ’ t effective in slowing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Richard Schabas , a former public-health physician who was Ontario ’ s chief medical officer from 1987 to 1997 , concluded in a study in 2004 .
An impoverished neighborhood in Liberia quarantined during an Ebola outbreak in 2014 responded with violent riots .
China sequenced the virus ’ s genome within days of detecting the outbreak and on Jan. 10 posted the information to public databases widely used by researchers .
That contrasts with the months of delay seen with its response to the 2002 outbreak of SARS .
Speedy access to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allowed health officials in Japan and Thailand to quickly confirm cases that had been exported from China , followed by the U.S. , France and other countries .
Still , the process isn ’ t easy .
Medical staff must take swabs from the nose and throat of potentially infected patients , along with blood samples , and send them to laboratories that are equipped to do genetic sequencing .
While the work can take four to six hours , shipping the swabs to the laboratory can take much longer .
Chinese health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 28 , in addition to the existing four types , according to Xinhua News Agency .
One of the new kits can give results in about 30 minutes , according to Technology Daily .
In the U.S. , the only facility currently conducting the work is at the CDC in Atlanta .
Researchers are working to develop a faster process that can be done closer to the patient ’ s bedside .
Antiviral drugs that have shown signs of helping control other types of coronaviruses , such as remdesivir and lopinavir/ritonavir , are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any help for those infected with 2019-nCoV .
Pharmaceutical companies including Moderna Inc. and Novavax Inc. say they have begun work on a potential vaccine .
Health officials say a version might be available for the first stages of human testing in as little as three months .
But developing an effective vaccine generally takes years .


washingtonpost--2020-02-03--Analysis | What’s Being Done to Limit the Spread of the China Virus


washingtonpost--2020-02-03--Analysis | Starbucks Challenger Luckin Isn’t All Out of Luck

Shares in Nasdaq-listed Luckin Coffee plummeted 11 % Friday after Carson Block ’ s Muddy Waters Capital tweeted that it has a short on the stock , citing an unattributed 89-page report it had received that alleged the chain has accounting issues and a broken business model .
It could have been worse .
Luckin shares were down as much as 27 % before rival short-selling firm Citron Research defended the company , saying it was long the stock and the coffee chain ’ s business in China was “ on fire.
” Whatever the merits or otherwise of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it found credible and Andrew Left ’ s Citron said would “ fall short on accuracy ” — Luckin faces serious challenges from the coronavirus , which has caused some cities in China to impose travel restrictions , manufacturers to halt output and the government to extend the Lunar New Year holiday .
At the same time , the coffee chain has a couple of key advantages that should enable it to ride out the disruption .
First is its delivery model .
Unlike Starbucks Corp. , which prides itself on its cozy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for consumption outside .
As of the end of June , 2,741 of 2,963 outlets were “ pick-up stores.
” Just 123 were so-called relax stores where buyers drink on the premises , and the rest were delivery kitchens .
In an environment where authorities are telling people to stay at home to avoid spreading the virus , such a business may prove more resilient than one like Starbucks , which sells coffee partly as a social experience .
Seattle-based Starbucks has closed more than half its 4,292 outlets ( 6 ) in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Luckin , which overtook Starbucks with 4,500 stores across the country by the end of last year , hasn ’ t given comparable figures .
Second is Luckin ’ s financial position .
Founded less than three years ago , the company has been expanding at a furious pace , almost quadrupling its number of stores from 1,189 in the third quarter of 2018 .
Such a rapid build-out is financially draining — especially when the company has a strategy of sacrificing profits by offering discounts to lure customers .
That makes Luckin @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The coffee chain raised a combined $ 778 million from an additional share sale and a convertible bond offering , more than the $ 645 million it took in from its May initial public offering .
It sold shares at $ 42 each .
The stock reached a high of $ 50.02 on Jan. 17 , almost triple the IPO price , and has since dropped more than a third to close at $ 32.49 on Friday .
The opportunely timed sale gives Luckin a war chest to survive the hit to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if it follows the same trajectory as the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak should be contained by summer .
To be sure , there are longer-term concerns hovering over Luckin , particularly the sustainability of a business model that appears to rest largely on offering near-permanent discounts .
While the advertised price of Luckin ’ s coffees is from $ 3.50 to $ 4 each , most customers pay as much as 50 % less in practice .
When the company started selling tea in July , it drew business with a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Luckin ’ s third-quarter loss widened to 484.9 million yuan ( $ 69 million ) from 531.9 million yuan a year earlier .


washingtonpost--2020-03-13--Analysis | Coronavirus Crisis Makes a Case for Medicare for All

The outbreak and the weaknesses it lays bare make a strong case for significant health-care reform , which has been a primary focus of the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination and an issue of key importance to voters .
Any of the plans proposed over the course of the campaign — from modest public options to a full-on transition to free government run health care under Bernie Sanders ’ s “ Medicare for All ” — would be an improvement on the status quo .
The presumptive nominee , Joe Biden , has a plan on the milder side @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis unfolds , it may help build a case for stronger medicine .
Even before COVID-19 hit , health care was a weakness for President Donald Trump .
Administration efforts to eliminate the Affordable Care Act and cut Medicaid funding didn ’ t sit well with many voters ; they ’ re unconscionable now in the face of an epidemic and possible recession .
His response to the virus has also been subpar .
Under his leadership , testing for COVID-19 has been inadequate and badly behind schedule , while his messaging has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In an Oval Office speech on Wednesday evening , he assured the nation that insurers will cover and eliminate co-payments for tests and treatment , something that wasn ’ t entirely true .
And instead of working toward providing concrete financial protection for Americans threatened by the crisis , he has pushed tax cuts and enacted an ineffectual travel ban , while initially ripping a bill produced by House Democrats that would offer relief .
Biden ’ s health plan , while less far-reaching than Sanders ’ s , would create a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ millions and substantially reduce premiums and deductibles for individual coverage .
It would still leave significant numbers of Americans uninsured and exposed to significant bills when they fall ill , and in the face of a crisis , might need to be revised to give people the help they need .
Notably , Biden seems to have indirectly acknowledged this ; his COVID-19 response plan , released Thursday , has a touch of Sanders to it , including a long list of actions to ensure no American faces charges for virus treatment and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that for every American for any health issue on any day .
Biden is unlikely to embrace a single payer plan .
But both the virus and an eventual need to win over Sanders voters make a case for more ambition .
Bigger subsidies for his public option , broader limits on out-of-pocket spending , targeted hospital price caps , and expanded auto-enrollment could all help to protect Americans against both epidemics and common health expenses .
When there ’ s a public health crisis , no one wants cost concerns to prevent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
As Americans watch the health care system and their neighbors struggle with this outbreak , it ’ s going to create an appetite and opportunity for more substantial reform — not only to deal with epidemics , but also with the thousands of little health crises that strike every day .
It shouldn ’ t be wasted .


washingtonpost--2020-03-13--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Coronavirus Pandemic

It has been described as “ insidious ” because many infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , unwittingly spreading it to others .
A study of 191 patients in China found that the median duration of infectiousness was 20 days with a maximum of 37 days .
As of March 3 , the fatality rate was about 3.4 % based on globally reported cases , the World Health Organization said .
Such numbers are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak , however , because there may be many people with mild cases who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , told U.S. lawmakers March 11 that the new coronavirus is 10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu , which has a mortality rate of about 0.1 % .
That jibes with a study published Feb. 10 that estimated a mortality rate of 1 % once all cases , including those with no or only mild symptoms , are counted .
A related coronavirus killed 9.5 % of patients in the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded since 2012 .
In those outbreaks , however , the viruses didn ’ t transmit from one person to another as efficiently as this new one appears to do .
Certainly , they didn ’ t spread as widely as fast .
In the worst pandemic in recent history , an estimated 50 million people died from the 1918 influenza that had a case-fatality ratio of about 2 % and infected as much as a third of the world ’ s population .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new strain of H1N1 flu ( swine flu ) in 2009 , infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and killed an estimated 12,469 of them in the first year it circulated .
Symptoms begin to appear on average five to six days after infection .
The virus appear to cause a mild illness lasting about two weeks in children , adolescents and younger adults in most cases , and potentially more severe disease lasting three to six weeks in older people .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if it stays in the nose and throat , which it does for the majority of people infected .
Danger starts when it reaches the lungs .
One in seven patients develops difficulty breathing and other severe complications , while 6 % become critically ill .
These patients typically suffer failure of the respiratory and other vital systems , and sometimes develop septic shock , according to a WHO report .
In severe cases , studies suggest the virus invades cells in the lower respiratory tract , causing difficulty breathing and the inflammation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
It appears to be the elderly and those with underlying health issues .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with other illnesses such as high blood pressure , diabetes or cardiovascular disease .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found most deaths occurred in patients over 60 years old .
Of all confirmed cases , 81 % were mild , 14 % were severe and 4.7 % critical .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of those who died were younger than 65 , according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
By coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes , according to the WHO ’ s first comprehensive report on Covid-19 .
These droplets can be transferred directly to someone else in close proximity or via hands and surfaces .
How long it survives on surfaces is unknown , but preliminary studies suggest coronaviruses may remain viable from a few hours to 2 or 3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Simple disinfectants kill it .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the virus can spread through feces or in tiny particles known as aerosols .
In a preliminary study , researchers who aerosolized it found active virus can float in the air for as many as 3 hours .
People who are still incubating the virus and show no symptoms may spread it .
Health authorities are concerned about what ’ s known as community spread , where the virus begins circulating freely among people outside of known contacts with other patients .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the number of additional people likely to be infected by an individual with the virus .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( pronounced “ r naught ” ) , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
A study of an outbreak aboard a cruise ship estimated that the r0 for Covid-19 was 2.28 during the early stages .
That would make it more infectious than seasonal flu , which has an r0 of about 1.3 and killed an estimated 61,000 people in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s no evidence of that .
But “ false negative ” test results could give that impression .
A study published March 12 showed that a small proportion of recovered patients may test positive again days after discharge .
The authors theorized that it may take a few days for the immune system to completely eliminate residual viruses , which can be hard to detect .
During that period , the virus may briefly rebound and , depending on the patient ’ s general health , there is a risk of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mean that the patient who retests positive is contagious , but they suggested further investigation and post-discharge surveillance .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
There is always concern when a new human pathogen emerges because people typically lack immunity to it and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel coronaviruses -- those unseen in humans before -- represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , as SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
Yes , as long as people can ’ t get it twice .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a community develops immunity to an infectious disease through prior illness or vaccination , so-called herd immunity can become established .
That reduces the number of susceptible people to a level at which transmission slows and eventually stops .
The necessary percentage depends on the basic reproductive number .
Patrick Vallance , the U.K. government ’ s chief scientific adviser , said March 13 that 60 % of the country ’ s population could become infected with the new coronavirus , which would help build up a degree of herd immunity .
China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than a dozen other cities in late January , sealing off some 60 million people .
New hospitals were built from the ground up in days , and the production of medical equipment was ramped up .
( Some makeshift centers in stadiums , hotels and office buildings have started to fold up as patients have recovered . )
With Covid-19 showing up in more places , officials began to switch their goal from stopping its spread to preparing for it amid shortages of testing kits , face masks and other equipment .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Europe , is the first to attempt a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread .
Schools have been closed in many countries .
U.S. President Donald Trump significantly restricted travel from continental Europe , on top of earlier curbs on travel from some parts of Asia , and the U.S. cautioned citizens against going abroad .
Many other countries also are denying or restricting entry for people arriving from affected areas , including hard-hit Iran .
Globally , governments are looking at a mix of cash handouts , tax breaks and transfers to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Many , including New York City , have declared a state of emergency , closing cultural institutions and banning public gatherings .
Manila imposed a lockdown .
The WHO declared a pandemic , which can help mobilize international responses .
The World Bank has allocated $ 12 billion in virus aid for developing economies .
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Wuhan , the original epicenter , on March 10 for the first time since the disease emerged , a trip intended to project confidence that his government has managed to stem its spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spokesperson for China ’ s National Health Commission said the peak of the current outbreak in the country is “ generally over.
” Numbers of new cases have dropped dramatically there , but early praise for China ’ s response has ebbed .
The country did not immediately release genetic information about the virus and has struggled to explain changes in the way it counts new cases .
But China ’ s strict quarantine likely bought the rest of the world two to three weeks to prepare for the virus and averted many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The initial U.S. response failed to stop the virus ’ s spread despite Trump ’ s tweet in late February that it was “ very much under control.
” Italy ’ s hospitals are being overwhelmed .
South Korea is testing people at a faster rate than any other country , betting on early detection , isolation and treatment to help defeat the virus .
Disruptions in supply chains , reductions in travel , work-from-home orders and extreme market volatility have slowed economic activity , especially in China and its many trading partners @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contraction in decades .
In the U.S. , a Bloomberg Economics model suggests a 53 % chance that the 11-year economic expansion will end within a year .
The economies of Japan , Germany , France and Italy were already shrinking or stalled before the virus outbreak , and the U.K. is wobbling amid Brexit uncertainty .
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates in its first emergency move since the financial crisis .
Group of Seven finance chiefs pledged to use “ all appropriate policy tools ” to safeguard economic growth .


washingtonpost--2020-03-13--Analysis | Finally, Some Good News on Coronavirus Testing

Unfortunately , the country ’ s inability to test enough people for weeks has contributed to an outbreak that is likely to grow substantially in the weeks to come and won ’ t be contained any time soon .
We don ’ t just need more lab tests ; other important tools we don ’ t have now — including so-called serologic tests and on-site diagnostics — could play a vital role in helping to better gauge the size of the outbreak and control its spread .
Serologic diagnostics allow extensive testing of samples from people who aren ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been exposed and have developed antibodies against the virus , such tests will let public health officials know .
This is incredibly valuable information in the fight against a disease that is mild or asymptomatic in many people .
In addition to giving a better sense of how many cases we ’ re missing and COVID-19 ’ s true fatality rate , it could also identify areas where it is spreading more quietly and help direct needed response .
Centers for Disease Control director Robert Redfield recently told a Congressional committee that his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in development .
Their speedy deployment is especially crucial in the U.S. , where there simply isn ’ t reliable information on where the disease is and how many people have it .
Another important step would involve moving testing capabilities out of the lab and into doctors ’ offices .
Ideally , providers should be able to order and run tests rapidly on site as they now can for viruses such as the flu instead of sending them off to an overtaxed lab .
An accurate and quick test of this type @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in limbo about their infection status , substantially aiding isolation , monitoring , and treatment efforts .
People could be diagnosed in a far broader array of settings , lowering the risk of further spread of infection and keeping them out of hospitals that could spend more of their time dedicated to severe cases .
A broader array of diagnostics would enable more targeted surveillance and reduce the need for blanket travel bans and other economically harmful containment measures .
FDA support and federal dollars should go to companies and labs working on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distributed quickly .
So good news for Roche and the fight against the virus , but we ’ re still only in the early stages of this outbreak .
And we need more firepower .


washingtonpost--2020-03-13--Analysis | Tesla Alone Can’t Fulfill China’s Electric Car Dreams

Given coronavirus-related troubles in the supply chain , Elon Musk ’ s company says it had to downgrade some parts used in its China-made sedans : It installed a lower-quality and slower chip that enables self-driving from what was originally planned to speed up car deliveries to customers .
With owners complaining , Beijing said the company should make sure cars produced in China meet promised standards .
Separately , in early February , Tesla had to shut down its recently opened Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai as part of a wider government order to stop the spread of the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difficulties aren ’ t unique ; the coronavirus has wreaked havoc across industrial supply chains .
But they ’ re the latest blow to China as it tries to corner the entire electric vehicle ecosystem , from battery materials to control systems to manufacturing .
The last thing the government wants is substandard Model 3s rolling on the streets of Shanghai .
And if Tesla is having problems sourcing quality parts , even in normal times , then what of other electric-car makers that lack the same level of support from Beijing ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ components .
As of December , it imported more than 70 % of the parts for cars assembled at the Shanghai facility .
The company has said it wants to localize its entire supply chain .
Tesla has struck deals with a few larger parts suppliers , like battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. , or CATL ; Huada Automotive Technology Corp Ltd. ; and Shanghai Ligang Joyson Safety Systems Co. , a subsidiary of Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp.China wasn ’ t just a big market for Tesla .
The country also promised @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with in the U.S. ) and strong supply chains .
Barring the few big companies that Tesla is tying up with , most parts makers are small and medium in size .
The outbreak has hit them hardest .
Without any visibility on orders from carmakers as the market tanks , their severe cash flow problems will worsen .
They won ’ t be making quality parts any time soon .


washingtonpost--2020-04-17--Big Government Is Bad for Productivity

Big Government Is Bad for Productivity

Ronald Reagan once likened a government program to “ the nearest thing to eternal life we ’ ll ever see on this earth.
” A look at history suggests that once a new program or a new agency is established , with few exceptions , it stays established , regardless of whether it was intended to be temporary , whether it ’ s still needed and whether it actually solved the problem it was created to address .
Before the 1930s economic collapse , there was no federal safety net .
State and local governments as well as charities generally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ few pension systems in the U.S. and Washington ’ s role in providing assistance was minimal .
The federal budget in 1929 amounted to about $ 3 billion , or 3 % of total output , a fraction of today ’ s $ 4.7 trillion budget that accounts for some 21 % of gross domestic product .
That number will surely grow as federal spending surges , the economy shrinks and tax collections fall .
The Great Depression marked the start of far-reaching and long-lasting federal government involvement in the economy as Washington @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic free-fall .
The New Deal saw the establishment of numerous “ alphabet agencies , ” many of which still exist but only bigger and more costly .
The CCC ( Civilian Conservation Corps ) , TVA ( Tennessee Valley Authority ) , REA ( Rural Electrification Administration ) , WPA ( Works Progress Administration ) , FDIC ( Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. ) and the SEC ( Securities and Exchange Commission ) were among some of the first New Deal agencies .
They were followed by the establishment in 1935 of Social @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 1 trillion behemoth that is now at risk of running out of money .
The first food stamp program was established in 1939 and ran for four years , followed in 1964 by the establishment of the program that today is called the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and costs close to $ 70 billion annually .
The 1960s Great Society efforts saw tremendous increases in federal involvement in many areas of American life , almost all of which have survived to this day , starting with the establishment of Medicare and Medicaid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ These programs eventually widened to include child nutrition , education , rural and urban development , affordable housing , air and water pollution levels , consumer protection and the availability of arts funding .
Meanwhile , the Departments of Transportation and Housing & Urban Development were created during the Johnson administration along with the Environmental Protection Agency .
Disdain for government in general was a big factor in Reagan ’ s election , but despite his declaration that government was the problem and not the solution , the vast federal bureaucracy remained intact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The Departments of Energy , Education , Veteran ’ s Affair and Homeland Security are entrenched , and the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau survives despite being a top target of Congressional Republicans .
Meanwhile , Social Security and Medicare benefits have been greatly expanded , and many federal programs created over the past 90 years remain in existence , some with changed mandates and others with questionable results .
The REA succeeded in supplying electric power to farms and rural areas , but vestiges of the agency remain in place today .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ that have been eliminated outright , starting with the Civil Aeronautics Board , which was established in 1938 to oversee aviation services and dissolved when the airline industry was deregulated in 1978 .
The Synthetic Fuels Corp. was established in 1980 to spearhead production of alternative fuels , but it ended up funding just four synthetic fuels projects , none of which survive today , before being abolished in 1986 .
With the recovery of the financial system from the 2008 crisis , some provisions of Dodd-Frank have been scaled back but key @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , remain .
All the trillions of dollars of federal coronavirus money to support income and jobs will require new bureaucracies to oversee disbursement of the funds .
But once the money has been released and spent , what will happen to all those government agencies ?
If history is any guide , they and their constituents will come up with some rationale for the continued need for their functions .
Furthermore , the power and reach of the federal government has been magnified greatly as the Federal Reserve , with its gigantic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effect , an arm of the Treasury Department .
Its latest $ 2.3 trillion program lends directly to states , cities and mid-size businesses and even supports previously investment-grade corporate bonds that are now junk-rated .
The central bank ’ s portfolio of assets , $ 4.2 trillion in February and now $ 6 trillion , may be headed for $ 10 trillion , or almost half of GDP .
And the Treasury will cover $ 635 billion in bad Fed loans .
The labor participation rate for working-age American males has fallen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ part because many find disability and other government payments more attractive than gainful employment .
This has contributed to the slow growth in productivity and the economy , especially in the last decade .
The likelihood that the coronavirus pandemic ’ s income supplements will persist beyond the recession implies that these trends will accelerate .
The resulting slow growth in corporate profits will be a drag on post-recession stock prices .


washingtonpost--2020-04-17--Analysis | Drugs Authorized for Covid-19? Why There’s Skepticism

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration in late March controversially issued an Emergency Use Authorization providing for two malaria drugs , chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine , to be distributed and prescribed by doctors to Covid-19 patients .
The move came after President Donald Trump repeatedly touted the drugs .
Such authorizations are permitted during a crisis when a product ’ s “ known and potential benefits ” outweigh its “ known and potential risks.
” The Russian government in mid-April ordered the free distribution of hydroxychloroquine , which hadn ’ t been registered for use in the country previously , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s decision and Trump ’ s championing of the drugs have been criticized by scientists as premature .
In a small study in France , hydroxychloroquine showed promising results , but the trial ’ s methodology has been challenged , and in another small trial in China , the drug was no more effective than conventional care .
And it carries significant side effects .
In April , France reported 43 cases of heart incidents linked to treating coronavirus patients with hydroxychloroquine .
Plus panic-buying of hydroxychloroquine has created shortages of the drug @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disease lupus , for whom it is a proven therapy .
Even if a treatment shows promise in laboratory , animal or early human experiments , rigorous testing is needed to prove that it ’ s both safe and effective .
That requires carefully structured and monitored tests known as clinical trials .
Typically , these studies are designed to show that patients randomly assigned to get the drug do better than those in a “ control group ” who don ’ t , and that the results aren ’ t a product @ @ @ @ @ @ @ subtract all the other influences and factors that might disguise the true effectiveness of the drug .
For one thing , patients often recover from viral illness on their own , or improve because of supportive care such as rest and hydration .
And some really sick patients might not respond to treatment no matter how effective it is .
Treatments that don ’ t have approval from regulators such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration should be viewed with extreme caution .
The FDA and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ treatments for coronavirus .
It depends .
Drugs that are already approved against one infection and shown to be safe can be tested for effectiveness against another in a matter of months .
Experimental drugs may take longer to test , as they have to go through initial studies to evaluate whether they are safe .
Other factors that can slow the process include the supply of drug candidates and the availability of patients to test them in .
The trials also have to be approved by ethics watchdogs and drug regulators .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ median time for regulators to approve a new drug in 2015 was 333 days in the U.S. , 422 days in Europe , and 639 days in China .
China has since expedited its process .
When drugs are deemed to fill an immediate need , regulators can speed them through the approval process using a number of paths .
More than 100 different programs have been launched to develop and test treatments .
These include everything from anti-viral drugs and antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients , to traditional Chinese herbal medicine .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most promising agent remdesivir , an experimental antiviral made by Gilead Sciences Inc. originally as a treatment for Ebola .
A mid-April report that the drug appeared to have helped a group of patients enrolled in a study at the University of Chicago created a flurry of excitement , but the university cautioned that the information was incomplete and inconclusive .
Reports from randomized , controlled trials are needed to show efficacy .
Larger trials of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are starting .
In a study in China published March 18 , AbbVie @ @ @ @ @ @ @ treatment combining two drugs , failed to improve the condition of coronavirus patients .
Another small , preliminary trial of the flu medication favipiravir , or Avigan , made by Fujifilm Holdings Corp. produced more promising results .
More than 70 experimental vaccines against the coronavirus are in some stage of development , according to the WHO .
Moving at record speed , researchers began preliminary human testing of the first one in mid-March in the Seattle area .
It was developed by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Since then , human trials have begun of vaccine candidates from CanSino Biologics Inc. and the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology and from Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc .
Some of the world ’ s biggest companies are working on vaccine projects .
GlaxoSmithKline has teamed up with China-based Clover Biopharmaceuticals , while Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson are in separate collaborations with the U.S. government ’ s Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority .
Widespread testing of experimental vaccines is important to reduce the possibility that they cause harm after being rolled out , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of times in the past .
Documented reports of unexpected side effects from new vaccines are different from the persistent and incorrect belief that vaccines against childhood diseases carry significant risks .
Anthony Fauci , director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , said that it would take about a year and a half to complete trials of experimental coronavirus vaccines , scale up production and make a licensed product widely available .
A team at the University of Oxford has set an ambitious aim of producing efficacy results @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aims to shorten the path to delivering the initial doses of a proven product by beginning manufacturing now .
There ’ s no guarantee trials will yield a successful vaccine , however .
The experimental products moving most rapidly are made using new technologies that have never proven useful in humans .
SARS killed nearly 800 people in a 2002-2003 outbreak , and there still isn ’ t an approved vaccine .
In a project that could deliver a vaccine sooner , researchers in four countries will test a shot that ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if it will protect health workers against the coronavirus .


washingtonpost--2020-04-17--ECB on Debt Front Lines, China’s Q1 Slump, Cautious Fed: Eco Day

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washingtonpost--2020-04-17--Analysis | The Astonishing Drop in Air Travel, Visualized


washingtonpost--2020-04-17--Analysis | Gilead’s Remdesivir Can Hardly Live Up to the Hype

Investors should be clear about what this report is and isn ’ t , however .
It is a promising anecdote that suggests the drug might be useful .
It is also extremely limited information from a small portion of a trial taken out of context .
In other words , it ’ s miles from providing proof that remdesivir cures Covid-19 .
The story is even further from being a reasonable basis for a multibillion-dollar stock move .
Anecdotal data gets people excited , especially when it sends a message they want to hear .
But it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drug will work .
Just a few weeks ago , similar anecdotal reports suggested that hydroxychloroquine , an older malaria drug , could be a Covid-19 miracle medicine .
More robust trials show side effects and limited efficacy .
Before this video emerged , the data on remdesivir was mixed .
A New England Journal of Medicine report on compassionate use of the medicine also suggested promise , but it was likewise anecdotal .
On the other hand , Chinese researchers running extensive controlled studies on it recently stopped them .
A slowing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Baird & Co. analyst Brian Skorney argues that if the drug looked as effective as the Stat report suggests , those researchers would “ certainly ” have reported data .
The Stat report has sparked particular exuberance because it highlights significant effects in very sick patients — evoking images of people being brought back from death ’ s door .
But in selecting severely ill patients , this trial screened out those requiring mechanical ventilation and those with multi-organ failure or kidney or liver impairment , according to Skorney .
That leaves a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better chance of recovery from the start , with or without remdesivir .
The Chicago hospital is just one site in a larger Gilead-sponsored study that lacks a control arm .
Even when all the data are in , it will be difficult to know how well these patients might have done with supportive care or other therapies .
The world may need to wait longer for a more conclusive verdict from a double-blinded placebo-controlled clinical trial that ’ s being run by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases .
Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the FDA approves the medicine based on earlier data , remdesivir isn ’ t certain to become a financial or medical blockbuster .
The drug may work only relatively early in the course of a coronavirus infection .
And because doctors must infuse it over several days , its uses are somewhat limited .
The manufacturing process is also long and complicated , and political pressure will keep Gilead from pricing aggressively .
Absent superlative real data or a manufacturing breakthrough , it ’ s hard to imagine sales of the medicine justifying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s market cap .
By fall , we ’ ll have data from immunosuppressive drugs that have generated promising anecdotal data of their own and from novel antibodies that may supplant remdesivir .
The best hope for Gilead ’ s drug is that it will become part of the toolkit for fighting Covid-19 .
Realizing that promise will take much more than a video .


washingtonpost--2020-04-17--Analysis | There Are Big Holes in Trump’s State Reopening Plan

The recommendations come with loopholes , however .
And unfortunately the president has made it clear , with his talk of opening before the end of the month , that he ’ d like to see them used .
The White House plan says “ states and officials may need to tailor these criteria to local circumstances , ” including in rural and suburban areas where outbreaks have been minimal .
It also gives states the option of taking a county-by-county approach .
If social distancing is loosened piecemeal in this way , however , people will be attracted to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ travel there , possibly bringing the virus and renewed outbreaks along with them .
Trump ’ s plan adds to this risk by including sporting venues and places of worship in the first suggested phase of opening , if such places carry out distancing measures .
And while the plan acknowledges that it might be good for neighboring states to cooperate with one another in reopening , it offers little in the way of detail or encouragement to do so .
If neighbors of already-forming state coalitions open fast , and in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ best-laid plans of the cooperating states .
“ They will be able to go literally tomorrow because they ’ ve met all of the guidelines , ” Trump said in announcing the plan Thursday .
“ We have large sections of the country right now that can start thinking about opening.
” It ’ s also possible that the states Trump sees opening soonest only look relatively safe from Covid-19 because of limited testing .
Just a few weeks ago , South Dakota would have been in this category ; now it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is , data-based decision-making relies on accurate information and cautious interpretation .
The distressingly vague phrase “ downward trajectory , ” which is incorporated into several of the plan ’ s gating criteria , gives states a lot of leeway to open too early based on unreliable data , and the president doesn ’ t seem inclined to complain if they do .
Without more testing , states won ’ t have an accurate picture of how far the virus is spreading .
Existing flu-tracking infrastructure can help , but it can ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump administration has largely left testing efforts to states , and yet its reopening plan mandates frequent on-demand coronavirus tests — including for front-line workers .
States are also supposed to conduct routine “ sentinel ” testing of vulnerable populations to catch early outbreaks , as well as widespread case intervention and contact tracing .
These are excellent requirements .
But governors with varying ability and limited information are left to their own devices to work out most of the details and implementation .
Finally , Trump ’ s plan calls on states @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social-distancing measures , and quickly return to them if the disease spreads again .
This is a crucial fail-safe , and one that ’ s likely to see too much use .


Your Evening Briefing

Governments around the world continue shutdowns aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus .
In the U.S. , New York and New Jersey , two of the hardest hit states , have extended stay-at-home orders to at least May 15 .
The U.K. added three weeks to its restrictions as it reached 100,000 confirmed infections .
Worldwide , there have been more than 2,100,000 confirmed cases and 140,000 deaths .
Here ’ s the latest .
U.S. President Donald Trump ’ s repeated misstatements about the pandemic—the virus was under control , any American could obtain a test , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state lockdowns—show him unsuccessfully trying to bend events to his narrative .
The result has been a record replete with rapid reversals , blame-shifting and falsehoods that had to be walked back .
On Thursday , Trump ’ s “ ultimate authority ” became the latest example , now transformed into nonbinding guidelines largely redundant of what some governors are already doing under state law .
Former Vice President Joe Biden , the presumptive Democratic nominee , attacked Trump for failing to empathize with the hundreds of thousands of Americans who have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the 27,000 who have died , and the millions out of work as the U.S. economy implodes .
Biden urged Trump to change course and stop throwing “ temper tantrums.
” Some people experience Covid-19 as nothing more than a mild cold , and others exhibit no symptoms at all .
Then there are the thousands who die .
Scientists are working hard to understand the underlying reasons for such huge discrepancies in symptoms and outcomes .
No one knows the answer yet .
One theory : it ’ s locked deep @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 5 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week , bringing the total in the month since the pandemic was declared to 22 million , effectively erasing a decade worth of job creation .
Extending those benefits to gig economy workers and the self-employed was a key part of the $ 2 trillion rescue package passed last month .
But the distribution of those funds has been stymied by bureaucracy , ancient technology , and difficulties creating a new safety net on the fly .
What ’ s Joe Weisenthal thinking about ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ just as the economy can ’ t suddenly be flipped on again , nobody turned it off , either .
As Charles Fain Lehman laid out Wednesday in the Washington Free Beacon , economic activity started slowing before stay at home orders went out .
The economy powered down organically as fear set in .
It will only begin to grow again , Joe says , when the fear recedes .
At least nine Carnival ships at sea have become virus hot spots , resulting in more than 1,500 positive infections and at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ships didn ’ t even begin their voyages until well after the company knew it was risky to do so , according to a U.S. government epidemiologist .
Despite the risk , the cruise line kept people partying as its vessels became a floating testament to the viciousness of the new coronavirus .
They have also raised questions about corporate negligence and fleet safety .


washingtonpost--2020-04-16--Analysis | Some Wall Street Bankers Are Doing Well From This Crisis

From the historic stock-market correction , to the unprecedented government and monetary stimulus packages and the spike in trading volatility , a “ unique combination of events ” drove client activity to unprecedented levels , according to JPMorgan ’ s chief financial officer , Jennifer Piepszak .
All told , her bank posted $ 7.2 billion in revenue from trading shares and bonds in the first three months of 2020 , up by almost one-third from the first quarter of 2019 .
That was its best performance in this business , according to Bloomberg data .
Citi posted a 39 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Group Inc. a 28 % increase and Bank of America Corp. a 22 % rise , largely exceeding analyst expectations .
The banks were helped by a strong start to the year before the Covid-19 outbreak hit — the U.S. stock market had reached record highs as had debt underwriting .
But the surge in trading flows during the March crisis was pivotal .
At their peak last month , daily trading volumes in rates and commodities were more than three times greater than the average daily volumes in January , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were more than twice the January average .
The extraordinary operational and financial challenges faced by the investment banks meant this performance — which softened the blow from the billions of dollars of provisions that they made for possible credit losses — was by no means guaranteed .
As we entered the lockdowns , it was unclear whether securities firms could manage the dispersal of teams of traders who thrive on proximity and depend on ultra-fast electronic connections .
The extreme price and liquidity swings during March ’ s markets meltdown could have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ times .
While JPMorgan and Bank of America have been putting pressure on traders to go into the office , most staff have been working remotely , many from home .
Regulators had to allow for greater flexibility around compliance .
And what worked for the Wall Street giants doesn ’ t necessarily work for everybody .
While traders usually love volatility , the breakdown of historic trading patterns has caught some finance firms off guard .
As wild price movements rocked the markets , many hedge funds and high-frequency traders pulled back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ allowing JPMorgan and Citi to step in , Bloomberg News reported last month .
For others there could be trading losses eating into revenue .
Take France ’ s BNP Paribas SA .
My Bloomberg News colleagues revealed that the French bank , typically a leader in stock derivatives , lost an estimated 200 million euros ( $ 219 million ) on equity derivatives , including dividend futures and structured products .
The widespread cancelling of corporate dividends also ate into Goldman ’ s equity revenue , the bank said on Wednesday .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ banks in the quarter remains uncertain .
At the same time , the extraordinary market gyrations and central bank and government interventions are unlikely to be repeated .
The near-term markets outlook is uncertain .
Goldman executives said trading activity has remained higher than average in the first two weeks of April , but Citi expects a “ normalization ” of trading in the second quarter .
“ Low rates and low economic activity may even be a headwind , ” JPMorgan ’ s Piepszak said .
Morgan Stanley CFO Jon Pruzan said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by between 20 % and 30 % since March .
The bank warned that without the trading boost it got in the first quarter , the crisis will hit earnings .
In a report published this month , Oliver Wyman , a consulting firm , and Morgan Stanley estimated that a 2 % drop in global gross domestic product in 2020 would cause credit and equity trading revenue to plummet , with rates and currency trading only offsetting part of the hit .
That would cause revenue at the global banks to fall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year to $ 131 billion .
The Federal Reserve ’ s historic move on April 9 to buy some junk bonds will facilitate trading .
But the specter of steep falls in banking revenue this year remains .
The International Monetary Fund expects global GDP to shrink by 3 % in 2020 .
Scale is the only way to shield profitability , according to the Oliver Wyman-Morgan Stanley report .
That puts Wall Street in position to build its lead over its European rivals .
But for all banks , the early crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .


washingtonpost--2020-04-16--Analysis | The 52% Shortfall in Britain’s Coronavirus Count

Another way to try to capture the size of the virus crisis is to look at all death certificates , and tally up those that mention Covid-19 .
That data is compiled by the Office for National Statistics and it gives a more complete picture , albeit with an 11-day publication lag .
The latest snapshot , covering the period through April 3 , shows 5,979 coronavirus deaths registered in England , the part of the U.K. with the heaviest toll .
By contrast , using the official daily hospital count , England ’ s deaths as of that date @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gap of 2,040 , or 51.8 % .
The difference had been even wider , at more than 60 % , earlier in the month.Now there are worries that even death certificates aren ’ t capturing the scale of the human tragedy unfolding in care homes .
A lack of testing means cases might be going unreported , and the strain on the system may be leading to errors : A whistleblower this week told Channel 4 News that some doctors simply weren ’ t registering suspected coronavirus deaths .
Care homes are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vacuum themselves , with media on Wednesday reporting industry estimates of 1,400 deaths in England .
That ’ s far higher than the 217 nursing-home deaths recorded by Office of National Statistics up to April 3.Given the issues of credibility and public confidence that are at stake , especially considering Prime Minister Boris Johnson ’ s recent brush with the virus , there is an obvious incentive for the British government to make an effort to include nursing-home data in the daily count — which is what care organizations explicitly want .
Yet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The challenge , apparently , is balancing speed with rigor .
“ We just need to be absolutely clear that the cause of death that is attributed is correct and that is what takes time on the death certificate to get right , ” explained one official recently.Is this such a hard trade-off ?
Other countries have managed it .
Germany reports all deaths that tested positive for coronavirus on a daily basis , as does Ireland .
Undercounting is still a risk everywhere , but the obvious vulnerability of nursing homes has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ which initially had the same methodology as the U.K. , changed its daily count on April 2 to include care homes — and it doesn ’ t require that every person be tested in order to be included in the statistics .
This has had a big impact on France ’ s numbers , with nursing homes accounting for 38 % of total deaths , but the benefits of transparency are worth the cost of an optical bump in fatalities.Even as it keeps to its own statistical path , the British government is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ neighbors , while studiously avoiding any discussion of methodology .
When Health Secretary Matt Hancock recently compared the U.K. death rate with Italy ’ s and Spain ’ s , he said Britain ’ s count had been inflated by its larger population .
Johnson ’ s Twitter account regularly publishes a “ global death comparison ” chart directly comparing Britain ’ s hospital tally with counts from countries such as France that are more complete .
Yet if France actually used the same methodology as the U.K. , the number of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from 17,167 .
Imagine the outcry.This isn ’ t just an issue of bad data , even if the coronavirus crisis has more than its fair share of that .
It ’ s also about the human cost of “ airbrushing ” deaths .
It ’ s an emotional subject for relatives forced to be apart from their loved ones even as they die , and a source of general anxiety for people asked to give up their freedom to fight an invisible enemy and save lives .
If the information governments feed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a source of distrust , there will be repercussions down the road .
The U.K. should proactively ensure that doesn ’ t happen .


washingtonpost--2020-04-16--Top GOP Senator Asks Mnuchin, Powell for Virus-Aid Transparency


washingtonpost--2020-05-13--Analysis | Modi’s Need for Control Impairs India’s Virus Recovery

It ’ s impossible to conclude that a more localized approach would have contained the pandemic .
Still , states left to act on their own might have fared better in lowering both the human cost of the tragedy and its grave economic consequences .
Amarinder Singh , chief minister of the northwestern state of Punjab , begged Prime Minister Narendra Modi on a Monday video conference call to let him have a say in restarting some parts of the industrial centers of Ludhiana and Jalandhar .
Both have been marked as red zones by New Delhi , forcing a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Punjab relies heavily on surplus rural labor from less prosperous states in northern and central-eastern India .
More than a million out of the 1.3 million who are stuck in Punjab with no jobs or money have signed up to go back home on special trains arranged by the Modi government , Singh said on the call .
How can he get them to stay ?
States aren ’ t being unrealistic in demanding more money and a little freedom .
No political leader wants to take the risk of getting overwhelmed by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yet .
But the western state of Maharashtra , which has seen the greatest spread of the disease , wants Modi to allow the resumption of Mumbai suburban trains — the lifeline of India ’ s financial and entertainment capital — for workers providing essential services .
States that have succeeded in beating back the virus are also struggling to stay afloat .
In the south , Kerala is facing the double whammy of no local production and migrant workers returning from the Middle East .
It wants states ’ borrowing limit to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bank to purchase their bonds directly if investors won ’ t .
Kerala Finance Minister Thomas Isaac also wants compensation for the loss of the goods and services tax — something that was promised to states for five years when in 2017 they gave up most local taxes in favor of the nationwide levy .
With no money from anywhere , local government spending will collapse , making India ’ s recovery under a phased reopening a long climb out of a deep hole .
Nomura Research projects India ’ s real gross @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this fiscal year .
Most private forecasters agree that the combined budget deficit of federal and state governments may balloon to around 14 % of GDP , more than double last year ’ s 6.5 % shortfall .
It would surge even more in the absence of urgent government spending to protect growth .
That is when the perils of managing a large democracy with a centralized command-and-control structure will become apparent .
This situation is still salvageable .
The government , and the central bank , must work with states to make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ safely .
Beg , borrow , or monetize , but find the cash .
The bulk of the $ 265 billion , or 10 % of GDP , Modi promised to spend in a Tuesday evening televised address needs to be new expenditure and not a reshuffling of the existing budget .
At least some of it has to reach the states .
Otherwise , the crunch will spawn harmful ad hocism .
Some agrarian states in northern India are so worried about the excess returnee workers from elsewhere that they ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the large factories they never got .
India ’ s archaic rules are notorious for encouraging bribery without protecting anyone .
But the answer to a bad law isn ’ t lawlessness .
Allowing 12-hour workdays without social security is hardly a blueprint for industrialization in the 21st century .
Even before the Covid crisis , too little income went to labor and too much to providers of capital , outside of India ’ s bloated public sector .
This was coming in the way of ordinary people being able to afford even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , if the price of labor becomes a race to the bottom among states , then upward mobility will suffer and extreme inequality will only worsen .
What will be the point of investing in India to tap a diverse yet common market where only a sliver of the population has any spending power ?
Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services .
He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews .
He has also worked for the Straits Times , ET NOW and Bloomberg News .


washingtonpost--2020-05-08--Moderate Democrats Push Back on Liberal Plans for Next Aid Bill

They ’ re also arguing over whether to pass a Democrats-only measure before starting talks with the GOP-controlled Senate and White House .
Some moderates are showing an openness to Republican ideas such as tax breaks and liability protection for businesses .
The swing-district Democrats , who are key to the party ’ s House majority , are influential with Speaker Nancy Pelosi , who said Thursday she ’ s not drawing hard lines on what the next relief package must include .
She said House Democrats could present and vote on their plan as soon as next week , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ point for negotiations with President Donald Trump ’ s administration and Senate Republicans .
“ This bill should be singularly focused on addressing the Covid health and economic crisis and it should in all ways be bipartisan , ” Florida Democrat Stephanie Murphy said .
“ There are so many people suffering in my community , they can not suffer because of partisan games.
” Progressive House Democrats advocate using the next bill to promote plans for guaranteed income , higher auto-emission standards and bolstered health care .
They seek to showcase those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ passes a bill with no bipartisan support .
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , a high-profile progressive , voted against the last stimulus bill , saying it didn ’ t provide enough direct aid to individuals .
That ’ s opened to door to attacks by Republicans , who have preemptively accused Democrats of trying to use the relief plan to enact a liberal wish list of policy proposals that have nothing to do with the coronavirus pandemic .
“ We can ’ t get caught in pet projects or ideological spats that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from actually taking a step forward , ” Horn said .
“ Our support and our relief need to be tied to the effects of Covid.
” “ The first thing that ’ s going to be necessary is for us to have a package on which we have agreement in the Democratic caucus .
We ’ re getting very close to having that , ” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said this week .
Pelosi -- who has emphasized that the first four coronavirus bills were bipartisan agreements -- has said the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bold ” but also told members to be realistic during a conference call this week .
House Democrats are in broad agreement that the package should have aid for states and localities facing severe revenue shortfalls due to the economic lockdown , and that it should include funds for health care and voting by mail in November .
More contentious are plans to extend the current $ 600 per week boost in unemployment insurance to the end of this year .
Some economists argue that in states where this gives workers more money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it would delay the economic recovery by creating a disincentive to return to work .
The $ 2.2 trillion stimulus bill passed in March authorized one-time $ 1,200 payments to individuals making less than $ 75,000 per year , with $ 500 extra for each child .
Progressives have argued for increasing this to $ 2,000 and making it a quarterly sum until the end of the recession .
“ I think I understand where many of the business owners are coming from , ” she said .
“ Universal basic income @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is not targeted ” to the effects of the Covid pandemic .
Murphy said the bill instead should focus on fixing problems with the Small Business Administration ’ s Paycheck Protection Program , which provides forgivable loans to companies that keep employees on staff .
Murphy also wants to expand a separate employee retention tax credit to encourage businesses to retain workers so they can keep their employer-sponsored health insurance .
Pelosi , looking for consensus in her caucus , has discussed linking expansions in unemployment insurance to economic metrics .
The speaker @ @ @ @ @ @ @ food stamp funds , as favored by progressives , and revising the PPP loan rules , as favored by the moderates .
McConnell said he ’ s open to some aid to states , but that any future bill must have limits on lawsuits against businesses and health-care workers by people who may have been exposed to the virus .
Companies need such protection to encourage them to reopen and spur the recovery , he said .


washingtonpost--2020-04-16--Trump Hears Testing Pleas From Companies in Talks on Reopening

As the outbreak showed signs of plateauing in the country , the executives had been asked to advise Trump on how to resume something approaching normal business and social life .
The president was scheduled to speak with more than 200 leaders from nearly every corner of the U.S. economy in four calls , including Apple Inc. ’ s Tim Cook and Doug McMillon of Walmart Inc. “ They gave us a lot of great ideas , ” Trump said at a White House press briefing later Wednesday .
“ The level of IQ on some of those calls was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen on a phone call , that I can tell you.
” In a call with financial services , hospitality , food and beverage companies , and retailers , executives said the U.S. needs more virus testing capacity so people feel comfortable returning to work .
Some said they ’ re trying to secure their own capabilities , a person familiar with the matter said .
Trump told the executives the government might soon announce the availability of a saliva test for Covid-19 , which the CEOs said could be a positive development @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to work , according to another person briefed on the call .
The Food and Drug Administration has approved a saliva test developed by Rutgers University and others for emergency use .
The president told financial executives and others he is nearing a deal for Congress to provide an additional $ 250 billion for small business loans , one of the people said .
The $ 349 billion Small Business Administration program was set to run out of money late Wednesday .
Planning for the calls appeared to be improvisational .
People familiar @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aides and White House offices were involved -- particularly Trump ’ s son-in-law Jared Kushner and his associates .
Trump himself pushed to expand participation , expressing a desire for titans of industry to advise him , one of the people said .
Several companies and other participants said they found out they were invited only after the president announced their names in a Rose Garden news conference on Tuesday evening or from a subsequent White House statement .
They said they didn ’ t know the format or the purpose of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exercise would be productive .
The format was much different than what Trump initially described last week , when he said he would create a council of “ very great ” doctors and business people to advise him .
The impression was a group akin to the coronavirus task force already guiding the administration ’ s public health strategy .
Plans for a second , smaller task force that includes government officials are no longer on the table , at least for now , according to the two people who described the White @ @ @ @ @ @ @ began in the morning .
The White House said the discussions would include chief executive officers of some of the country ’ s largest and most prominent companies , including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase & Co. No specific reopening date was discussed .
While the sheer size and diversity of the new group allowed Trump to hear a broad range of opinions , it likely won ’ t provide an environment for in-depth debate on pressing questions such as whether the U.S. has sufficient testing capacity for the virus or which sectors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first to go back to work .
Trump said last week the re-opening group he envisioned would be “ bipartisan.
” While the corporate executives have varying political leanings -- Jeff Bezos , the Amazon Inc. CEO who has been a Trump foil for years , is among them -- the calls include academics from conservative research groups with ties to the White House , such as the American Enterprise Institute and Heritage Foundation .
Many of the executives are close to Trump , including New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and Stephen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ group also includes a few people who have criticized Trump in the past , such as Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice .
One CEO was contacted by the White House on Wednesday morning to participate on a call with the president , according to one person at the firm .
The company expressed misgivings about participating , but also believed that backing out might prompt an angry response from Trump .


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Analysis | French Faith in Macron Hangs by a Mask Thread

The French welfare state rarely lacks for anything , yet the country has suffered the same supply shortages seen around the world .
Medical masks are being rationed after a national stockpile was allowed to run dry .
A reluctance to test widely is looking increasingly like a resource problem : The government ’ s target of 500,000 tests per week by May 11 is a rate Germany — which has reported a much lower death toll than France — achieved back in March .
France ’ s strict lockdown measures , initially widely supported by the public , are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis response , especially as other countries move more quickly to lift theirs .
Confidence in President Emmanuel Macron has taken a hit after an initial bounce in the polls a month ago ; it has only slightly picked up after a recent speech admitting to “ weaknesses.
” If big government is indeed the best antidote to the current pandemic crisis , how did an omnipresent state — with what was once rated the best health-care system in the world — fail to lead the way in handling Covid-19 ?
Aside from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of infections , the French seem to think the problem was not enough state intervention and spending .
A recent survey on France ’ s future by newspaper Liberation found that 84 % wanted the state to relocate as much manufacturing as possible from Asia ; 68 % wanted to nationalize strategic industries ; 56 % wanted the state to intervene systematically in business ; and 54 % wanted a much stricter form of national protectionism .
Arnaud Montebourg , a former economy minister and foe of Macron , blamed a state obsessed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The 42-year-old Macron , elected in 2017 on a platform to reform France , has himself promised “ massive ” investments to come , telling Le Point , “ I ’ ve always believed in the state.
” Bringing manufacturing of strategic goods back home makes sense in some areas , but the general idea that the state lacked financial resources or power going into this crisis is an unconvincing one .
Germany spends exactly the same proportion of its GDP on health care as France — 11.2 % — yet the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and more nurses per capita than its neighbor , according to OECD data .
This higher density of care can make a big difference if “ super-spreader ” infections strike small cities ; a mega-church event in eastern France earlier this year is seen as the reason for that region ’ s high death count of around 2,500 .
This comes down to decision making , not money : In Germany , a decentralized structure gives more say to federal states and makes it hard to deprive regions of resources from above .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , does the opposite .
Over the years a state-led bureaucracy has favored flashy mega-hospitals in urban areas while closing beds elsewhere , ignoring local officials ’ protests .
More cash alone wouldn ’ t curb the centralizing tendency of the state ’ s power , its Jacobinism .
It was the state that decided a national mask stockpile might not be necessary back in 2013 , when Montebourg was in government .
And it was the state that stuck to a cautious stance on testing for the coronavirus after it was declared @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , refusing to give regulatory permission to 75 regional laboratories to perform up to 300,000 tests a week , according to Le Point .
Sure , too much decentralization can also bring problems — witness the disunited U.S. responses .
But France is at the other extreme : One state official was recently suspended after suggesting job cuts should proceed at a university hospital in the country ’ s badly stricken eastern region even in the midst of the crisis .
Right now , the pandemic is still raging , and the priority @ @ @ @ @ @ @ All European countries — including fiscally hawkish Germany — are rolling out emergency spending plans with the support of the European Central Bank and the European Commission , the European Union ’ s executive body .
With French faith in Macron hanging by a mask thread , this is not the time to pinch pennies .
But France entered this crisis with a budget deficit of 3 % and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 100 % ; it will emerge with a deficit of 9 % and a ratio closer to 130 % , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the age of Modern Monetary Theory , the question of who is going to foot the bill for the post-Covid state will resurface eventually .
“ We ’ re spending much more than our neighbors to get the same social model , ” Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau told Sunday newspaper the Journal du Dimanche .
“ We will need to manage things more efficiently.
” Economists reckon tax hikes are inevitable at some point .
If more feathers are going to be plucked , a rethink of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wise .


washingtonpost--2020-04-30--Analysis | Boeing and Bond Traders Brace for Junk

A Bloomberg Barclays index of double-B rated corporate bonds , with an average maturity of about seven years , has a spread of 535 basis points more than Treasuries .
Triple-B securities on average yield 266 basis points more than their benchmark .
It suggests bankers are going with the tried-and-true strategy of luring in investors with elevated premiums and then tightening pricing before the deal closes .
Indeed , in less than four hours , Boeing reportedly received $ 50 billion of orders for the offering .
Arguably the most interesting part of this particular offering is that it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
What this means is that under the terms of the deal , Boeing would increase interest payments by 25 basis points each time S & P or Moody ’ s Investors Service lowered its credit rating by one level into speculative grade .
For example , if both S & P and Moody ’ s downgraded Boeing to their highest speculative grades , BB+ and Ba1 , respectively , the coupon would increase by 50 basis points .
If S & P alone cut the company by two steps from its current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also would be worth a 50-basis-point hike in interest .
It ’ s capped at 100 basis points per credit-rating company and 200 basis points in total .
This structure has become something of a trend lately for companies teetering on the edge of junk , particularly those in travel-related businesses that have been hard hit by coronavirus lockdowns and a shuttering of global borders .
Expedia Group Inc. , Marriott International Inc. and Hyatt Hotels Corp. are among those that have used it .
Both sides benefit from such an arrangement : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help offset the typical price declines when a company becomes a “ fallen angel , ” while the firms are likely able to raise more cash than they otherwise could and have yet another reason to defend their investment grades .
But another way to read it is that there is a legitimate concern among bond investors about whether the lasting fallout from the coronavirus pandemic may jeopardize these investment-grade credit ratings , and an acknowledgement by the companies of that reality .
Asked on Boeing ’ s earnings call Wednesday how important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ investment-grade , Chief Financial Officer Greg Smith offered less of a hard commitment and more of a preference and acceptance of the fact that the ultimate fate of its rating was somewhat out of its hands .
“ Certainly , we would like to maintain being investment grade , and I think as you ’ ve heard and seen , we ’ re doing everything possible to do that .
But look , the market is probably going to impact that more than anything , ” Smith said .
“ At the end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to be what it ’ s going to be.
” While Boeing is eligible to participate in a $ 17 billion bucket of government stimulus money dedicated to companies involved in work critical to national security and says it ’ s still reviewing its options on that front , Calhoun has balked at the Treasury Department ’ s demands for an equity stake and has indicated the mere existence of the $ 2 trillion CARES package and a Federal Reserve bond-buying program is helping open up the credit markets to companies like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with $ 15.5 billion in cash and marketable securities after drawing down the full amount of a $ 13.8 billion term loan , but CFO Smith acknowledged Boeing ’ s daily cash burn since the end of March was eating into that cushion .
Boeing churned through $ 4.7 billion of cash in the first quarter and said free cash flow will be negative for the year .
It does expect that metric to swing to the positive in 2021 , although the degree of improvement will be limited by plans to significantly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 737 Max .
S & P in its downgrade said it now expects Boeing to generate as much as $ 10 billion of positive free cash flow next year , after burning through as much as $ 20 billion in 2020 .
It had previously expected as much as $ 14 billion in free cash flow in 2021 .
A Bloomberg measure of default risk , which incorporates share price and volatility , debt levels , interest expense and trailing 12-month cash flow , deems the company deep into high-yield territory , well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & P and Moody ’ s • Altria Group Inc. sold $ 6 billion of notes in November 2008 , in what was then the company ’ s biggest ever deal and the largest in the U.S. market since well before the onset of the financial crisis .
The debt was rated Baa1 and BBB+ .
The company never fell to junk .
Of course , there were companies that didn ’ t fare as well .
Notably , Residential Capital LLC , the mortgage lending unit of GMAC LLC , sold $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years in May 2007 with a coupon step-up for downgrades .
Not surprisingly , ResCap defaulted on its debt .
For investors , the question is whether aerospace companies are this crisis ’ s equivalent to mortgage lenders , destined to be permanently wounded by the coronavirus impact on travel demand , or if Boeing is still a blue-chip company that can weather any storm .