washingtonpost--2020-04-27--Analysis | College Graduates May End Up Delivering Your Milk Tea

China could say its labor market is more resilient and that jobs-for-life still exist at its state-owned enterprises .
The urban unemployment rate came in at 5.9 % in March compared with 6.2 % in February .
Meanwhile , Americans are losing jobs at the fastest pace since the Great Depression .
But China ’ s jobless number is a sham .
Of the 442 million urban workers , over one-third , or 174 million , are migrants .
The statistics bureau doesn ’ t consider them unemployed ; rather , they ’ re outside the local labor force altogether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not able to return to cities because of lockdowns or dismal job prospects .
This is a gross omission , because many still hope for employment in the city .
Many speculated that China only launched its 4 trillion-yuan stimulus package in 2008 after 20 million migrants lost their jobs .
Infrastructure projects gave them new opportunities to work .
So why is China being so stingy this time ?
A decade on , Beijing is clearly worried about its debt pile and balancing the fiscal budget .
Unlike the U.S. , personal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ roughly 4 % of fiscal revenue .
Corporate , value-added and social security taxes , on the other hand , make up over one-third of China ’ s coffers .
This explains why the government is a lot more comfortable cutting taxes for businesses and refunding their social security contributions , instead of laying out unfunded benefits for the unemployed .
But where there ’ s a will , there ’ s a way .
While China ’ s total debt-to-GDP ratio is among the highest in the world , the central government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ helicopter money to the unemployed would be feasible .
One reason 174 million workers have been forgotten is that policy makers see them as flexible .
After all , they did manage to shift from one low-skilled gig to another — morphing from construction workers in the post-crisis building frenzy to the delivery boys of the e-commerce boom .
So what ’ s wrong with them going back to their villages and picking up farming again ?
They could be fully employed there , the thinking goes .
They are “ more able @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mused HSBC Holdings Plc .
It ’ s perhaps no coincidence that Beijing shifted its tone just ahead of International Workers ’ Day on May 1 .
Last week , Premier Li Keqiang emphasized the need to help migrants during a speech at the State Council , urging local governments to provide unemployment benefits and “ minimum living guarantees.
” These laborers are currently ineligible because they don ’ t have the city hukou , or a permanent residency card .
But there are plenty of holes in this plan .
For instance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collect his check ?
Different cities give different amounts of cash .
For instance , in the laborer ’ s hometown outside Wuhan , it ’ s 680 yuan per month , yet it ’ s 1,050 yuan in Shenzhen , where he last worked .
Municipal governments , whose fiscal receipts were growing at the slowest pace in a decade even before the outbreak , will have little incentive beyond squirming out of their obligations .
Ultimately , the blame lays on the hukou system , which divides Chinese society into castes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about reforming it for decades , with little progress .
Chances are , Li ’ s speech was just a few slogans .
All will be forgotten in a few weeks .
This is a dangerous level of neglect from the urban elites .
Even before the virus outbreak , the supply of new migrant workers had trickled to just about 2 million a year compared with 8 million a decade earlier .
That ’ s partly because they are treated so badly .
These laborers are kicked out of megacities on short @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Shanghai fancy capping the urban population .
Meanwhile , not having a city hukou , they don ’ t have access to public healthcare or education .
This lockdown may have been the last straw for migrant workers who ’ ve tried to make ends meet .
At least there ’ s land , food and shelter in the countryside .
Why bother putting in long hours for a few extra bucks and having nothing to fall back on ?
Soon , our milk tea delivery boys will have university degrees .


washingtonpost--2020-04-28--Analysis | You Saw The Earnings, But What Did CEOs Say?

Tuesday was a jam-packed day for earnings across all sectors .
In the industrial landscape , I paid closest attention to 3M Co. , Caterpillar Inc. and United Parcel Service Inc. , each a bellwether in its own right .
You can find the specifics on earnings numbers in the companies ’ news releases here , here and here , but in this time of unprecedented volatility , what CEOs are saying about how they are running their businesses is more telling .
Here are my top takeaways:3M : Like many companies , 3M has suspended its 2020 guidance given @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and rolling economic shutdowns , but in an effort to provide more transparency , the maker of Post-it notes is now going to provide monthly sales updates — broken down by geography and business segment — for the foreseeable future .
This follows Emerson Electric Co. ’ s marathon two-hour-plus earnings call last week that featured presentations by not only the CEO and CFO but also the heads of its main business divisions .
It ’ s nice to see companies setting the bar high on disclosures during this period of upheaval ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarter is expected to bring the worst of the virus impact , and 3M is cutting $ 350 million to $ 400 million of costs in the period to adjust to lower demand .
Notably , however , much of that involves discretionary spending on things like travel , external services and advertising , rather than cuts to payroll , which 3M says it ’ s trying to minimize .
It ’ s using furloughs , but they ’ re paid leaves , and in other cases , employees are being asked to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3M had announced a restructuring plan in January , separate from the coronavirus , that would see it eliminate some 1,500 jobs , so it ’ s hardly a corporate saint .
But given its sales of N95 respirators , you ’ d be hard-pressed to find a company that better understands the toll the virus is taking , and 3M seems to legitimately want to to do the right thing by its workforce .
Like others in the industrial sector , the company also appears wary of cutting too deep and being @ @ @ @ @ @

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washingtonpost--2020-04-28--Analysis | What Fracker Earnings Really Need Are Fewer Frackers

Those investors who hung on will feel the predictable mixture of fear , frustration and embarrassment .
They ’ ll soon be joined or replaced in some instances by a new cohort : bondholders ending up with equity stakes they didn ’ t expect .
The result , says Dan Pickering , Chief Investment Officer at Pickering Energy Partners Inc. , is that “ companies will wind up in a more adversarial relationship with owners than they had in the past.
” Repairing that relationship , which ought to have been a priority anyway , is now a matter of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with management , and the raft of proxy statements just released aren ’ t encouraging on that front .
Executive pay and shareholder returns still occupy alternate realities .
Of 30 companies I sampled , fully 16 awarded above-target bonuses to the CEO despite negative returns to shareholders last year .
Another seven got them for returns that , while positive , lagged the S & P 500 .
In rating their returns against each other , rather than the market , E & P companies keep c-suite pay afloat while their stocks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ circular logic even more damaging .
All industries will seek to rebuild after this crisis and compete for scarce capital from burned investors in order to do so .
A reputation for benchmarking itself against dross — and with a decade of terrible returns to show for it — will have the E & P industry starting somewhere near the back .
More than changes to this or that figure , therefore , E & P companies must communicate a change in attitude .
Generalist investors nonplussed by oil and then burned by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a 12-month budget with some price sensitivities thrown in to tempt them back .
The specifics will be different for each firm , but the underlying ethos should be the same : Stop spending money you don ’ t have on producing energy nobody wants .
Throttling back spending not only leaves more money for payouts or cutting debt , it reins in supply .
The unprecedented drop in oil demand due to Covid-19 is forcing this , of course .
But too many unprofitable barrels were spewing from shale anyway .
Kimmeridge @ @ @ @ @ @ @ manager , estimates more than 80 % of the increase in U.S. oil and gas production in the decade after 2008 was funded with external capital , much of it incinerated in the process .
CNX Resources Corp. took a new approach with its earnings call Monday .
A year ago , the Appalachian gas producer was touting plans to raise spending and accelerate drilling — and the stock took a beating .
This time , it ’ s all free cash flow twinned with plans for flattish spending and production right through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rush , CNX ’ s finance chief , made the salient point that “ if E & P companies are forced to use their own money to fund their own cash needs , [ oil and gas ] prices will rise to support that.
” CNX was the best performing E & P stock Monday , up 12 % .
Demonstrating commitment to this will take time .
Storage tanks are still filling , and Pickering suggests a bottoming process for the sector could take two to five years , not quarters .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a focus on rewarding investors rather than growth at all costs .
This , in turn , would leave E & P firms better able to meet the challenges , and higher risk premiums , of a volatile oil market and intensifying environmental pressure .
Capital restraint , meeting the market on its own terms , is the key .
Consolidation has an essential role to play in that .
No management team will use an earnings call to kick off a sales process .
Making it clear they ’ re open @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t racing to adopt poison pills would help , though .
Fracking is just too fragmented .
Surveying 57 E & P companies representing 12.3 million barrels of oil equivalent a day of output , Kimmeridge calculates their SG & A expenses added up to $ 9.3 billion in 2019 .
Per barrel , the spread between smaller and larger companies is wide .
For example , the biggest , ConocoPhillips , produced more oil and gas than the 28 smallest companies combined .
But Conoco spent $ 556 million on SG & @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Taking the 38 firms producing 250,000 barrels-equivalent a day or less each , SG & A averages $ 2.93 a barrel .
Cutting that to $ 1.50 , on a par with the top five , would save $ 1.5 billion .
If that sounds like pocket change , then you ’ re forgetting how small these companies are .
Set it against their combined market cap of just $ 18 billion , and it ’ s an 8 % cash yield .
Various actors hoping to stave off restructuring with some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ self-interest in tropes of energy dominance .
But they have it backwards .
The U.S. does have a vested interest in a healthy oil and gas sector that doesn ’ t rely on implicit subsidies such as rampant gas flaring .
As Pickering puts it : “ Beneath all this is a patient that needs to be saved.
” But that means curbing the sector ’ s worst impulses and prioritizing efficiency .
A Soviet-style fetish for sheer oil and gas production will ultimately make the industry a ward of the state and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the process .
As the earnings calls play out , listen for those companies that accept things can ’ t just go on as they were , and the ones insisting they must .


washingtonpost--2020-04-18--Democrats Make Offer to Mnuchin in Effort to Break Aid Deadlock

Trump ’ s blessing for aid to hospitals removes one sticking point in talks among House Speaker Nancy Pelosi , Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer , Mnuchin and their staffs on replenishing the tapped-out Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses .
They have been discussing providing $ 75 billion for beleaguered medical facilities , according to a Democratic aide .
“ Hospitals have been decimated by this , ” Trump said when asked about the negotiations Friday at a White House briefing .
“ I ’ m with that all the way , if they want to add hospitals.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he also could accept the hospital aid in a deal , a day after saying Republicans shouldn ’ t offer Democrats a “ fig leaf ” of a compromise until they agree to give the small business program , which ran out of money on Thursday , an infusion of $ 250 billion .
The shift in the GOP stance comes as some Democratic lawmakers facing re-election in swing districts , who ’ ve been targeted for pressure by Republicans , are backing away from their leaders ’ brinkmanship strategy on the aid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go for a deal .
McCarthy remains opposed the Democrats ’ proposal to provide $ 150 billion in assistance for state and local governments in the package under discussion , according to an aide .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell also hasn ’ t weighed in publicly on the negotiations , though he ’ s unlikely to oppose a deal signed off by the White House .
“ We can get this all done hopefully very , very soon , ” he said on MSNBC , in words echoed by Pelosi Friday night @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said the aim was to “ do a lot more than just renewing one program of small business , which we should do .
We want to do that.
” In the meantime , Democrats have faced an onslaught of attacks by Republicans seeking to pin the blame on them for delaying help to small businesses at a time when a record number of workers are being thrown out of jobs .
Trump assailed Democrats on Twitter : “ Today people started losing their jobs because of Crazy Nancy Pelosi , Cryin ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Do Nothing Democrats , who should immediately come back to Washington and approve legislation to help families in America .
End your ENDLESS VACATION !
” Although Pelosi has managed to keep her fellow Democrats in line during previous confrontations with Republicans , there were signs of nervousness in the ranks , particularly among those facing tough re-election races in November .
“ The bottom line is we can not let this program go without funding and we have to fix the problems , ” Horn said in an interview .
Horn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as well as hospitals will desperately need funding shortly , they are not out of money this week .
She said congressional leaders should focus on renewing PPP and adjusting it to make it easier for self-employed and microbusinesses to apply , leaving other needs to be dealt with in the coming weeks .
The inability to meet in person has hampered Congress ’ s ability to strike a deal .
In past spending standoffs , Pelosi ’ s first move would be to craft a House bill , pass it and then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the administration .
With the Covid-19 epidemic in full bloom , the House is not planning to reconvene before May 4 .
While lawmakers can be called back for a vote before then , congressional leaders have been aiming for a deal that could be approved by unanimous consent .
But that is difficult to achieve .


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Here Are the Companies Getting Federal Covid Relief Funds

The sprawling law makes money available to millions of small businesses , health-care companies , airlines , defense contractors and more .
The Small Business Administration oversees the $ 349 billion Paycheck Protection Program , one of the biggest efforts under the Cares Act .
In 13 days , it worked with almost 5,000 lenders to approve applications from about 1.6 million firms for $ 342.3 billion .
The rest of the funds went toward fees and processing .
The PPP was designed to help companies with fewer than 500 workers maintain payrolls and cover certain expenses like rent for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of as much $ 10 million .
They convert to grants if companies keep workers on their payrolls and maintain salaries .
Funds for the program were exhausted as of April 16 , but the Trump administration and lawmakers are negotiating adding another $ 310 billion .
Congress also allocated $ 454 billion of the $ 2 trillion package as a backstop for Federal Reserve lending to banks , companies and municipalities .
The Fed has announced nine programs , ranging from purchases of commercial paper to helping banks push out billions in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The Fed hasn ’ t said which companies are benefiting .
Another initiative , the Payroll Support Program , is aimed at airlines and requires that funds be used exclusively for payroll and benefit costs .
Carriers are supposed to continue to provide air service to markets served prior to the crisis and refrain from layoffs or from reducing pay and benefits through Sept. 30 .
A separate $ 17 billion pool of money was designated for companies vital to national security and contending with coronavirus disruptions .
But the Treasury Department , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ funds , has yet to define which companies are crucial to national security .
Below is a non-exhaustive list of public companies Bloomberg has identified as receiving these federal funds .
We ’ ll continue to update as new filings come in : For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Analysis | Texas, Like OPEC, Can’t Turn Back Time for Oil

Clearly , this isn ’ t your grandfather ’ s oil market — a point reinforced by James Mann , attorney for the Texas Pipeline Association and formerly a commission employee in the 1970s .
He observed that the folks familiar with the data-intensive work of apportioning quotas for thousands upon thousands of wells across the state were no longer contractually employed , so to speak : When I spoke with Mann the day after the hearing , he recounted other ways in which the world has changed .
“ Waste , ” for example , meant actual waste when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In the early 1930s , a swarm of wildcatters drawn by the gushing East Texas field sought to out-pump their neighbors , regardless of what the market could absorb .
Plus ça change , as they say in Midland .
Back then , though , “ oil was coming out the ground with no place for it to go ; they were putting it in dirt pits and leaky wooden tanks , ” as Mann says .
A lot of oil soaked into the ground or evaporated — waste in its very @ @ @ @ @ @ @ happen today provided regulators do their job .
If oil is running out of places to go , then futures prices will tell you ahead of time and wells will get shut in , with the weakest usually going first .
Rather than a physical issue , “ waste ” today is a euphemism for lost money .
As James Teague , co-CEO of Enterprise Products Partners LP , put it bluntly : “ I think I ’ d define waste as inefficient producers continuing to produce at a time like this.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expressed about the fate of smaller producers , in particular .
There are over 2,900 producers that account for less than 10 % of Texas ’ output , according to Matt Gallagher , CEO of Parsley Energy Inc .
This implies that , at best , they produce almost 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in aggregate but just a few hundred each on average .
The vast majority of wells in Texas are dribblers rather than gushers : Bernstein Research estimates that when oil is at $ 25 , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ barrels a day just to break even , before counting any natural gas .
Two-thirds of Texas ’ wells produce less than 10 barrels a day equivalent , including gas , and benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude crashed below $ 13 on Monday morning .
And low prices are only one problem ; several small producers complained about getting shut out of pipelines , tanks and refineries altogether as those businesses prioritize bigger companies .
Yet the idea of bowing to that reality is anathema .
Advocates argue shutting down these wells even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up again , wasting the remaining oil and gas .
But this presupposes the remainder has positive economic value , an increasingly dubious proposition in an oil market barreling toward peak demand .
Factoring in the cost of decommissioning these wells only reinforces this math but , ironically , avoiding that cost also reinforces the desire to cling on .
Pro-rationing would reinforce this further , especially if smaller producers were made exempt .
It would mean more-efficient wells subsidizing higher-cost ones .
Any number of factors may explain why there is such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ industry .
Immediate impacts such as unpaid bills and layoffs often loom larger than considerations of long-term viability .
Moreover , sheer numbers matter more than scale when it comes to one thing : Barrels don ’ t vote , people do .
Zooming out , the state ’ s pro-rationing debate is a fractal , with the pattern repeating .
Most obviously , OPEC+ tries to do the same thing at the global level , just as Texas used to .
By holding cheaper barrels off the market , countries such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , raising the price overall .
OPEC+ does this for similar reasons .
Like the small producers in Texas , countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have economic models that simply wouldn ’ t work too well if oil was priced like a regular commodity .
Oil ’ s centrality to development over the past century made it indispensable , and demand both ubiquitous and inelastic .
Combine that with the geographic concentration of resources , and the result is an edifice of political and economic structures built on the back of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market ” is just different .
But it is becoming less different .
That ’ s the underlying reason for the commission ’ s virtual gathering this week .
Covid-19 is like a fever dream of all the pressures that were bearing down on oil already .
The last time Texas was pro-rationing , in the early 1970s , the conventional wisdom on resources and their fast-approaching exhaustion was captured in reports like “ The Limits to Growth ” .
Such ideas supported both OPEC ’ s power and the notion it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ resources — even under those Texas backyards — in the expectation prices would only rise in the future .
Today , we know we won ’ t run out of oil .
Mann makes the excellent point that the sheer “ capability of oil production ” holds prices down today rather than physical barrels being poured into bathtubs for want of a buyer .
Capital markets have run out of patience with the industry ’ s current business model of high and often inefficient growth .
There ’ s simply no economic justification @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their associated overhead .
Meanwhile , the planet is running out of capacity to absorb oil ’ s emissions .
Demand for oil remains high , but is no longer as inelastic as it was .
That trend will intensify .
It is striking that this enormous , vital market is now dominated by a shale industry that couldn ’ t pay a decent return even before Covid-19 showed up , and two sclerotic petro-states , Saudi Arabia and Russia , living off their foreign exchange reserves .
These are the edifices built @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and managed supply .
We are transitioning , painfully and chaotically , to a market with more competition , both between producers fighting for market share ( and geopolitical influence ) and between oil itself and encroaching rival energy sources .
The edifices aren ’ t built for that and must reconfigure or fall .
Like oil itself , the Texas Railroad Commission simply can not deliver all that is being asked of it .


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Analysis | Why Deflation Is Poison for Virus-Plagued Economies

When prices drop across a wide range of goods and for a long time , economic activity can screech to a halt .
The more buying power shoppers think they will gain by waiting for cheaper goods and services , the more they put off buying anything at all .
Delayed purchases squeeze company sales and profits , prompting firms to postpone investment and hiring and to keep a lid on wages .
Poorer job prospects and stagnant pay make households stingier , putting more pressure on firms to keep prices down .
Companies , workers and households all end @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the worst economic disasters in modern times -- the Great Depression of the 1930s , and the less catastrophic but more recent experience of Japan ’ s lost decades with almost no economic growth .
While economists have come up with policy solutions that can tackle inflation , they have had little success devising effective solutions for deflation .
“ If inflation is the genie , then deflation is the ogre that must be fought decisively , ” European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde said when she headed the International Monetary Fund .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Falling prices took hold in Japan in the 1990s when banks , wounded by a burst real estate bubble , stopped lending .
Wages stagnated and consumers reined in spending .
The reluctance of consumers to spend and of companies to raise prices became the new normal .
The Bank of Japan calls this a deflationary mindset .
After two decades of price weakness and low growth , Prime Minister Shinzo Abe placed Haruhiko Kuroda at the helm of the BOJ to try to slay deflation once and for all .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sector with cash by purchasing a mountain of assets bigger than the size of the economy , inflation still remains closer to zero than its 2 % target .
The addition of negative interest rates and a zero-percent bond yield target have failed to show a decisive impact , highlighting the difficulty of ending deflation with monetary policy tools alone .
Even before the coronavirus , inflation was very weak among industrial countries despite years of aggressive monetary easing following the global financial crisis , raising fears of spreading “ Japanification.
” Plunging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the concerns .
While suspended factory production lines and shuttered shops will eventually reopen , job losses around the globe mean weakness in demand will persist .
Government measures like cash handouts may not offer a quick prop for demand and prices while public health measures to contain the virus and safety concerns continue to keep people off the streets .
The outlook is so uncertain that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has chosen to skip the release of economic forecasts , saying publishing them “ could have been more of an obstacle @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In theory , deflation can make bonds more attractive for investors because a fixed stream of income is more valuable in a world of falling prices and lower interest rates .
Treasuries and other high quality bonds such as AAA-rated corporate debt are often touted as deflation hedges .
But things get trickier for high-yield debt , particularly if the deflationary environment increases the business risk -- and therefore credit risk -- of junk bond issuers .
And while inflation can help relieve the burden of debt for companies and governments over time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will of course have the opposite effect .
Some think deflation concerns triggered by the pandemic are overplayed since prices could jump as economic activity resumes and the impact of government and central bank stimulus kicks in , spurring demand .
Yet , even after the pandemic is over , the scars from the shutdown -- poor jobs prospects , shattered consumer confidence and patchy recovery in global supply chains -- may prevent a quick recovery and thus keep a lid on inflation .
Inflation is typically an easier challenge for central banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because they have plenty of room to raise interest rates from current rock-bottom levels .


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Analysis | Apple and Google Have a Trustworthy Pandemic Solution

The two tech giants have announced a contact-tracing tool for their smartphone operating systems , which will be available to public health authorities everywhere .
It ’ s no panacea , but if deployed effectively it could be crucial in tackling the outbreak .
Perhaps counterintuitively , the Silicon Valley approach would protect privacy better than many government efforts .
It doesn ’ t share any data with the authorities that they don ’ t have already — namely , who has tested positive for the virus .
If we hope to end the lockdowns before a vaccine is made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ identification of those who ’ ve been near infected people — will be essential .
The head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says so .
Johns Hopkins University ’ s Center for Health Security agrees , as do the governors of New York , Massachusetts , Maryland , Washington state and beyond .
It ’ s central to Germany ’ s virus strategy .
The problem is scale .
Right now , contact tracing is largely analog , and involves someone asking a virus patient about their movements over the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work out who they might have crossed paths with .
If you have more than 100,000 confirmed cases , as the U.K. does , that ’ s a lot of work .
A report by public health researchers at Johns Hopkins and the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials said the U.S. alone needs to hire at least 100,000 people to work as contact tracers .
It has 2,200 currently .
Yet governments would need far fewer recruits if they had the right tech , and Google and Apple — which control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — seem to be well placed to provide it .
Google built a $ 135 billion advertising business by cutting out the need for human monitoring , instead depending on automation to track and place millions of ads .
Doing things at vast scale is its forte .
The two companies ’ proposed system , which should be ready in mid-May , will rely on smartphones ’ Bluetooth connections .
Each phone will start generating anonymous , encrypted identifier keys ( a coded series of numbers and letters ) , which change every @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broadcast via Bluetooth to nearby handsests .
If you ’ re within perhaps 10 feet of someone for 10 minutes — the parameters are still being worked out — the two phones will exchange their respective identifiers , logging the interaction .
If one of the smartphone owners tests positive for the virus subsequently , the clinic that carried out the test will give them a unique code to enter into an app .
The app will then upload all of the identifiers that the phone has generated in the past 14 days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ re using the app , have had your Bluetooth switched on , and have been in proximity to the person who ’ s tested positive , you ’ ll get an alert to let you know .
Crucially , you won ’ t be told who the person was , nor where you met them .
It ’ s as if Tinder told you someone liked you , but not who .
Just as important , while your phone might flag the exposure to you , it doesn ’ t tell anyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ you to follow any self-isolating protocols .
The health authorities won ’ t know , or at least that ’ s the theory .
Nor will they receive an itinerary of the infected person ’ s movements over the past 14 days , lessening the Big Brother implications of contact tracing .
An alternative technological approach , as tried by Singapore , has more ominous implications because it could mean all contact-tracing data collected on your phone is sent to a central server , rather than only sending the relevant data if you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact with an infected person .
This central database would be managed by governments via their health services , and it could make it much easier to track everybody ’ s movements , or at least everybody using the app .
Even if the data were made anonymous , citizens would be putting a lot of faith in politicians not to use the system for bad reasons .
The Apple and Google technology would still put the contact-tracing power in the hands of national authorities , but individuals would only be sharing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The companies aren ’ t building an actual app ; they ’ re providing a toolkit for health services to build their own .
And if the latter abused the technology , Apple and Google can always veto apps from their online stores .
Have the two companies come up with a perfect solution ?
No .
You might receive a flag that you were exposed to someone when there was a physical wall between you .
But human contact tracing is also fallible .
Theoretically , it might be possible to discover @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Google and Apple data .
Yet the cost and effort of doing so would be prohibitive .


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Analysis | Alibaba’s Covid-19 Crisis Response Is in the Cloud

Even if investors don ’ t take seriously the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak , they do need to remember that the salad days of exponential consumer growth are over .
Well before this pandemic crippled spending and sent the Chinese economy into its first contraction in 28 years , Alibaba ’ s growth was already weakening .
It ’ s not alone .
The entire internet sector is facing a new reality of slowing revenue and the possibility of thinner margins .
Competition still persists , however .
Pinduoduo Inc. and JD.com Inc. continue to challenge Alibaba ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wreaking havoc against its on-demand business , ele.me .
These battles may die down , but will probably never go away because consumers aren ’ t locked in to one app .
Cloud is not exactly a growth driver at Alibaba .
While outpacing the rest of the business , it still accounted for just 6.6 % of revenue in the December quarter .
It ’ s certainly not a money maker and continues to post losses .
Support from the cloud , however , is quite different from Alibaba ’ s consumer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is generally small to medium enterprises that need the functionality and productivity that comes with putting their business on someone else ’ s server .
The question is merely which provider clients choose .
Amazon.com Inc. is a great example .
Few would argue that Amazon Web Services is the outright best cloud offering , yet it ’ s been aggressive in onboarding new companies , especially startups and app developers , which then find it time-consuming and troublesome to switch even if something better comes along .
At the time , Tencent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ group that includes health care , education , security and location-based services .
For a company built on social networking and games , this sounded like an about-face .
In fact , it was more of a pivot from consumer to industrial internet , and a recognition that the real money is made on servers , not in a user ’ s smartphone app .
Alibaba has known this for a while , too , but hasn ’ t managed to truly leverage its back-end technology in the same way that Amazon has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yuan to be spent over three years .
That ’ s roughly double the pace of capital expenditure the Hangzhou-based company dished out in the last financial year .
Ostensibly , that money will go toward expanding its already large infrastructure of data centers and networks .
Technology development is also on the agenda , including semiconductors and software .
I ’ d wager that a fair bit of the largesse will be thrown at incentives and marketing to get clients onboard , and to keep them there .
With the race now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is signaling that it has the money and is willing to use it .


washingtonpost--2020-04-19--The Future of Monetary Policy Is Asian

The Future of Monetary Policy Is Asian

For truly dramatic stuff , look across the Pacific .
Monetary policy in Asia has gone into territory not charted even in the depths of the Great Recession and the Asian financial meltdown of the late 1990s .
In degree and kind , the steps taken by central banks in Asia have been unprecedented , and the influence of their monetary chieftains has never been greater .
*****This shift presents itself in two key ways .
One is easy to spot in the flood of announcements from Asian monetary authorities themselves .
Officials have taken the axe to rates in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic nirvana or so enmeshed with China ’ s ascendancy that they had become euphemisms for growth .
Borrowing costs are now microscopic , reaching territory once seen as the preserve of the old industrial powers .
The idea that Asia central banks , outside Japan , would engage in a form of quantitative easing was until very recently laughed out of the room .
It ’ s now happening .
Policy makers are , appropriately , putting worries about a spike in prices to one side .
Demand is collapsing in Asia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ West .
There ’ s no inflation in a graveyard .
Moreover , disinflation was the dominant trend in the years preceding the coronavirus , a trend that looks entrenched in the absence of any worldwide inflation .
Capital Economics , a research consultant , expects deflation in South Korea , Thailand and Taiwan .
The second manifestation of Asia ’ s enhanced role in the monetary arena is subtler , but no less profound .
Fed officials have come to the view that as the center of economic gravity shifts toward Asia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a greater say over how the Fed thinks about policy .
The implications are far reaching.Prior to the past decade , the Fed didn ’ t care much about the world beyond America ’ s shores .
Fair enough ; its mandate from Congress is domestic , dedicated to price stability and maximum employment .
But what if those two mandates are increasingly shaped by economies abroad — driven by China and the pull it exercises over an entire region and beyond ?
The speed with which Covid-19 swept the planet and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in retrospect , be seen as a Waterloo for policy based on purely national parameters .
*****Within the Asian hemisphere , no country more epitomizes the global economy ’ s fall from grace than Australia , a place once seen as possessing some elixir that enabled it to sail through almost three decades without a recession .
In late 2018 , as U.S. President Donald Trump prepared to ramp up his trade war against China , Jerome Powell was asked for his views on the business cycle at a luncheon at the Economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the only place where the business cycle was dead , he noted , with a tone that suggested the remark was only partly in jest.While Powell ’ s counterpart at the Reserve Bank of Australia , Philip Lowe , never spoke in such tones , there were plenty in the country who did : Some special new economic model was being hatched that married Asian-style growth with Western political institutions .
In reality , the expansion was slowing at the time and the RBA was fretting that inflation was too low and rates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ easing was floated last year , but scoffed at by those who saw it as an American or European disease .
Yet there Australia went , and rapidly too , as the pandemic erupted .
On March 19 , the RBA cut rates to zero and launched a form of QE aimed at keeping three-year bond yields at 0.25 % , an approach that echoes that adopted by the Bank of Japan .
The virus may be the epitaph for Australia ’ s boom , and with it the idea that the country @ @ @ @ @ @ @ For sheer magnitude of breaks with the past , though , consider Indonesia , the Philippines and South Korea .
The first has an unhappy record of dealing with deep recessions and financial upheaval ; the Asian financial crisis toppled a regime and tipped the country into communal warfare .
Jakarta is determined to prevent that this time .
Bank Indonesia hasn ’ t cut to zero — its benchmark rate sits at 4.5 % — but it has been given the authority to buy government debt in the primary market .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the secondary market .
The idea in both countries is to give the government more fiscal power to deal with the virus and shore up local currencies ; both have current-account deficits , which make them especially vulnerable to a loss of appetite from foreign investors .
In Korea , a modern first-world industrial economy , officials undertook bond buying even before taking the benchmark rate to zero.
“ It ’ s not surprising to see some emerging market governments seeking to emulate the recourse the U.S. , Europe and Japan have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their debts , ’ ’ Deutsche Bank AG economists wrote on April 6 , in a review of Asian policy .
“ It is unusual , though , to see central banks accepting this mandate before they have exhausted conventional policies.
’ ’ *****The Fed , which had essentially exhausted conventional measures prior to the virus , subsequently embraced the role of central banker to the world .
But that client — the world — has changed significantly in recent years .
If this customer doesn ’ t own the bank , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China accounts for 40 % of global economic growth and Asia overall accounts for 70 % .
China ’ s economy is eight times the size it was in 2003 when the SARS epidemic struck .
This spectacular growth brought with it a realization that what happens in Asia doesn ’ t stay in Asia .
It comes to the U.S. soon enough .
Lael Brainard , a Fed governor steeped in international relations , laid out an expansive view of how the Fed should view the world in a series of speeches @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as my Bloomberg News colleague Craig Torres reported .
“ What China does matters to the U.S. , ’ ’ Brainard said on Feb. 26 of that year , when challenged .
Now , in the era of trade wars and Covid-19 , it seems crazy that global perspectives would be anything other than center stage .
For its part , China has refrained from reinventing the monetary wheel in response to the health crisis .
The People ’ s Bank of China has continued to steadily steer rates lower , but @ @ @ @ @ @ @ buildup that resulted from its stimulus efforts in 2008 .
Beijing has reduced reserve requirements for lenders and leaned on banks to direct that extra cash to small and medium-sized businesses .
Fiscal policy has been relaxed , though less significantly than in the U.S. and Japan .
It ’ s not that the Fed was ignorant or neglectful of global linkages in the past .
It stopped increasing rates during the Asian financial crisis and subsequently cut them after the emerging-market rout of that era morphed into a Russian default .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dot plots and forward guidance — and rarely mentioned the event directly .
Now the virus is everywhere in Fed communications .
Transcripts from Federal Open Market Committee meetings during the first half of 2003 show little attention to SARS .
To the extent Asia figured much , it was Japanese deflation that occupied the attention of a governor named Ben S. Bernanke .
We won ’ t know how much wattage Covid-19 truly consumed at recent FOMC proceedings until transcripts are released years from now .
You can bet your sweet supply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 33 times SARS was mentioned in first half of 2003 .
The Fed may be the world ’ s financial policeman , but the beat comprises more than a city block .
*****As irrevocable as these trends seem , the Fed and the broader college of monetary practitioners need to be wary of a backlash ; central banks became a scapegoat for sluggish growth after the financial crisis .
Congress , which Fed officials say is the real boss , is parochial by design .
To ease fears of mission creep , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Summary of Economic Projections a sense of what pace of world growth is required to meet U.S. growth , employment and inflation estimates .
A quantifiable guide to the world that so shapes domestic conditions would be extremely useful .
It would also acknowledge an unfashionable reality : In an era where globalization is said to be defunct , transnational ties matter more when setting the price of money — not less .
And what of Asia ’ s future ?
It ’ s hard to see how these extraordinary steps are unwound @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get used to a backstop , it ’ s hard to take away .
Policy makers in Indonesia and the Philippines might induce their own domestic “ taper tantrums ” should they try .
At least some of the state subsidies and functions assumed to combat the virus will stay , which means budgets need to be financed .
Now that Australia has undertaken QE , how does it withdraw ?
Does Japan ever withdraw ?
I ’ m hearing little or nothing about exit strategies .
Central bank independence doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Emergency measures have a way of becoming entrenched as vested interests spring up around them .
As for inflation , that has been on a pronounced journey down in Asia .
In many instances , the pace of price increases is near the lower end of targets and conceivably will push beneath the goal line .
Runaway prices , traditionally thought to follow periods of huge stimulus , is unlikely .


washingtonpost--2020-04-19--Analysis | Coronavirus Gives China Inc. Cover to Behave Badly

But the damage is done .
HNA got its due date extended and even managed to convince investors that it only needs to pay the loan prime rate — the benchmark given to banks ’ best corporate clients — for newly accrued interest payments .
HNA is by no means such a customer : Its $ 200 million dollar bond due October 2021 is yielding 28 % .
In addition , the conglomerate waived its 10-day written notice requirement , allowing it to call investor meetings anytime , anywhere .
It ’ s no surprise that HNA ’ s other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ potential governance breaches may be more difficult to avoid .
Companies could have trouble updating their financial information during a lockdown , especially if their offices are closed .
Last week , Fitch Ratings Inc. withdrew its assessment of Yunnan Metropolitan Construction Investment Group Co. , a local government financing vehicle , because the agency no longer “ has sufficient information ” and the company “ has stopped participating in the rating process.
” Its $ 800 million dollar bond due April 2022 tumbled to trade at 75 cents on the dollar .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the risks investors take with one-time issuers .
While such borrowers need investment-grade ratings when they launch their bonds , all bets are off once cash is in the coffers .
Having no rating at all could well be better than sinking into junk territory .
In late March , Fitch downgraded Yunnan Metropolitan to BBB- with a negative outlook .
Chances are , more cuts are on the way : The investment vehicle has 66.7 billion yuan due this year , and generated only 5.1 billion yuan gross profit in the first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ too , the problems that unfold when auditors face travel restrictions .
In normal times , companies have to submit audited annual reports and first-quarter results , which are unaudited , by the end of April .
Now , companies have until the end of June to submit their yearly write-ups .
So far , just about 30 % of A-share listed companies have filed their 2019 materials , data compiled by Bloomberg show .
A few distressed names even claimed they didn ’ t have the money to pay their auditors .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ be trading on a lot of self-reported data for an extra two months .
According to Chinese news outlet Caixin , Luckin Coffee Inc. only disclosed that it may have fabricated billions of yuan in sales after Ernest & Young LLP started asking questions .
Audits are time-consuming , but essential .
Social norms may be changing in the coronavirus era .
Let ’ s not forget , though , that stocks and bonds are still trading .
This means even if you ’ re engaged in e-learning , school rules still apply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to be able to grade homework .
Good corporate governance , I am afraid , is becoming as distant a concept as the classroom .


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Lobbying Firms Say They’re Not Getting Fair Shake at U.S. Virus Loans

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washingtonpost--2020-04-20--California Entrepreneurs Buck Trend, Keep Forming Businesses


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Analysis | China’s Finance World Opens Up to Foreigners, Sort Of

China is allowing full foreign ownership of life insurers , futures and mutual fund companies this year -- in stages .
Foreign ownership caps for securities firms came off April 1 as part of the trade agreement signed with the U.S. in January .
China also pledged to take no longer than 90 days to decide on applications from electronic-payment service providers , including for wholly foreign-owned operations .
Regulators cleared the way for full takeovers of local banks by foreigners in 2019 , a year after it eased ownership caps .
Foreign companies can now also be lead underwriters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can control wealth management firms , pension fund managers and inter-dealer brokers .
The Shanghai-London Stock Connect officially kicked off in June 2019 , allowing companies listed on one bourse to trade shares on the other .
( Almost a year later , however , only a single company had taken advantage of it . )
An earlier program linked Hong Kong with the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges .
China ’ s $ 45 trillion financial services industry .
Even a sliver can be lucrative .
Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that -- barring a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ -- foreign banks and securities companies could be raking in profits of more than $ 9 billion a year in China by 2030 .
Wealth management firms are looking at a market poised to reach $ 30 trillion in assets by 2023 , according to consultancy Oliver Wyman .
Guo Shuqing , China ’ s chief banking regulator , sees significant room for foreign investors : They held just 1.6 % of banking assets and 5.8 % of the insurance market as of May 2019 , he said .
The percentages have fluctuated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the foreign share of Chinese banking assets was 2.3 % .
The threat of financial decoupling looms with the Trump administration looking at restrictions on U.S. investments in Chinese companies and financial markets , a possible new front in the trade war .
( China declared it would continue to open markets and encourage foreign investment . )
There are also plenty of hidden barriers , including the challenge of cracking a market dominated by government-controlled rivals that have longstanding relationships with clients .
The lengthy and often opaque application process also can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example , has been waiting since 2015 .
On top of all that , China ’ s gross domestic product shrank the most on a quarterly basis since at least 1992 as the world struggles with the pandemic .
They ’ re being slowly added to widely followed global benchmarks , including stock indexes by MSCI Inc. and FTSE Russell and , for bonds , the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index and JPMorgan ’ s GBI-EM indexes .
That ’ s expected to draw tens of billions of dollars in purchases initially from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In late 2019 MSCI said it wouldn ’ t add any more yuan-denominated shares until China fixed long-standing concerns over market access .
And not every opening is met with enthusiasm : Foreign investors had bought only a third of the total allotment at the time regulators scrapped the quota system for Chinese stocks and bonds in September .
Market turbulence in recent years , including major stock sell-offs , has dampened interest .
Some investors also worry about being unable to repatriate their money due to China ’ s capital controls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a tight grip on money flowing in and out so as to preserve the value of its currency , the yuan . )
The benefits may be twofold : U.S. President Donald Trump accuses China of being a one-sided beneficiary of global commerce , so opening up makes the trade seem more balanced .
And Chinese leaders have long described the moves as a useful way to improve the competitiveness of the domestic industry -- without challenging its dominance -- as well as to allocate capital more efficiently and attract foreign investment .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the moves as “ prudent , cautious , gradualist .
”


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Analysis | Revenge Is a Dish That’s Off the China Menu

Unfortunately , it looks as though Chinese consumers are simply buying their alligator handbags and diamond watches at home instead of in Hong Kong , Paris or Milan .
While travel restrictions aimed at halting the pandemic are partly responsible , the trend was already in place before the virus appeared — driven by a change in tax rates .
Beijing has been encouraging the nation ’ s shoppers , who accounted for around a third of global luxury sales last year , to spend more money at home .
The gap between prices of upscale goods onshore and overseas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 30 % three years ago after a series of cuts to China ’ s luxury sales taxes .
Protests last year in Hong Kong , a favorite pit-stop for buyers of high-end products , also helped to spur domestic sales .
The migration still has a long way to run : Only 30 % of China ’ s luxury purchases took place at home last year .
All this suggests that this spurt in luxury sales is unlikely to be sustained at these levels .
Chinese purchases won ’ t rescue the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Felsted has noted .
More than 90 % of sales take place in bricks-and-mortar stores .
That ’ s understandable : If you ’ re going to spend thousands of dollars on a handcrafted item , you ’ ll want to touch it , rather than just clicking a button on an e-commerce site .
Besides , Chinese shoppers are still worried about their jobs and the prospect of salary cuts .
Most people don ’ t plan to increase spending on high-end goods , according to a Morgan Stanley survey that suggests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and L ’ Oreal SA may quickly fade .
Of 2,000 consumers surveyed , 29 % said they will spend less on luxury goods next month versus this month , while 40 % said they would spend more on groceries .
The survey covered city-dwellers aged 18 to 49 in 19 provinces .
The luxury sales bounce will taper off into a gradual though sustainable rise , according to Lucia Li , a Beijing-based partner at Bain & Co .
The consultancy divided Chinese consumer products into six categories ranked from those that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus , such as digital healthcare , to those that will face enduring headwinds such as traditional retailers .
It placed luxury goods in the middle bracket , along with alcohol and household appliances .
Nisha Gopalan is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering deals and banking .
She previously worked for the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones as an editor and a reporter .


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Shake Shack Doesn’t Want Uncle Sam’s $10 Million After All

Then poof , lucky winners of the aid lotto claimed all those billions in just two weeks .
The White House hasn ’ t provided a full accounting of where the money went or the logic determining who got it .
By the time we find out , it is likely to have been spent .
Never fear , the federal government is set to approve another $ 350 billion in small-business funding , possibly as soon as today .
Small businesses — especially the employees who work for them — need this support .
It ’ s unlikely that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entrepreneurs ’ freefalls .
It ’ s also possible that $ 699 billion and counting won ’ t be enough to heal Covid-19 ’ s economic wounds .
Still , the money is moving through the pipeline , and common sense should be used in spreading it around .
That brings us back to one of the targets of social media scorn on Friday night : Shake Shack Inc. , the ubiquitous burger chain Danny Meyer founded in 2001 .
Meyer is one of America ’ s most gifted and conscientious restaurateurs .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Group , owns a collection of acclaimed eateries in New York City that includes Union Square Café , Gramercy Tavern , The Modern and Maialino .
He began assembling all of that in 1985 , when he was 27 .
His book , “ Setting the Table , ” is a must-read for any manager of anything .
His business philosophy is grounded in an “ employee first ” approach , and he has led the way on improving compensation for restaurant workers ( sometimes with uneven results ) and convincing restaurant owners @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Meyer ’ s high-end restaurants , Shake Shack is publicly held and built for the masses .
Meyer , no longer one of Shake Shack ’ s largest shareholders , is chairman of the company ’ s board of directors .
Unlike Meyer ’ s other restaurants , Shake Shack can still sell food for take-out or curbside pick-ups , so it hasn ’ t been wiped out .
The chain employed 7,603 people and had revenue of $ 595 million and the end of last year .
It announced last week that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 1,000 workers .
And it was able to corral $ 10 million , the largest grant possible , from the government ’ s small-business rescue fund .
That money is meant to buttress payrolls , so presumably it would have been used to maintain wages for Shake Shack ’ s workers and keep their lives intact a while longer .
Here ’ s the hitch : The government defines small businesses as those employing fewer than 500 people .
A loophole in the bailout allows franchises and chains to count employees on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eligible for funding .
( I ’ ve written here about how scammy some of this may wind up being . )
That , understandably , has made Shake Shack , Potbelly Corp. , and Ruth ’ s Hospitality Group Inc. — hefty chains that all got bailout funds — objects of curiosity or scorn .
This might have been avoided had the government structured the business bailout with greater precision .
After all , Shake Shack isn ’ t the size of , say , United Airlines Inc. , which had about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ revenue before the coronavirus struck .
United is getting $ 5 billion from a separate bailout fund earmarked for the nation ’ s airlines .
Shake Shack isn ’ t as small as the Montclair Bread Company , either , which employed 30 people in Montclair , New Jersey , before the coronavirus hit .
Wyman opened her doors eight years ago and has become a fixture in a town populated with foodies .
She helped put herself through college by making bread , graduated from the Culinary Institute of America supported by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and then began earning a master ’ s degree in business administration so she could defer her loans .
Along the way she has survived a divorce and a bike accident that shattered her pelvis while she was training for an Ironman competition .
She ’ s also raising three children .
When the coronavirus hit , she stayed tough .
In early March , Wyman had to fire about 20 of the people who worked for her and since then has been working from 3 a.m. to 8 p.m. , six @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gets to sleep until 5 a.m. Money she earned from speaking engagements and running baking classes has dried up .
But she ’ s got a relatively vibrant take-out business at her shop that is keeping her little team afloat for the time being .
Like Shake Shack , she worked hard to line up federal aid .
Unlike Shake Shack , she didn ’ t have a phalanx of lawyers and other advisers to help her .
She said she and one of her co-workers applied three times to her bank and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in funding .
Each time it took three hours to complete the online application .
Each time the application was spit out at the end for undisclosed errors .
On the fourth try , her application was accepted .
On Friday she got an email from her bank .
“ We have learned the SBA has approved loans that will exhaust all the funding available for the initial round , ” she was told .
“ We understand that many of you are disappointed.
” Wyman is more than disappointed .
She ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money that the government is bragging about having for small businesses feels like it ’ s not really there .
I just feel locked out , ” she says .
“ We need the money now to keep our employees and families afloat and keep our space so that we have somewhere to start over in when this is over.
” She didn ’ t begrudge Meyer ’ s $ 10 million , however .
“ I don ’ t think it ’ s fair to come down on a business like Shake @ @ @ @ @ @ @ build a business like that .
The people who work for them are no different than the people who work for me .
As long as the money is actually going to the employees , I have no problem with it.
” Rather than see restaurant pitted against restaurant , or specialty store pitted against specialty store , Wyman says the government could have created better buckets of funding for businesses in various industries .
Truly small businesses like hers could have been in one category , mid-sized businesses like Shake Shack could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like United in still another .
The way the aid was set up potentially left mid-sized operations like Shake Shack in a no-man ’ s land , and when they sprang into action to get funding many of the business community ’ s small fry were out-muscled .
Meyer noted in a LinkedIn post late Sunday night that the squeeze-out made him change his mind about keeping Shake Shack ’ s government aid .
“ Many who need it most , haven ’ t gotten any assistance , ” he and the company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We ’ ve decided to immediately return the entire $ 10 million.
” It ’ s unclear to me why the business gurus in the White House weren ’ t sharper about structuring all of this properly from the get-go — unless , of course , they aren ’ t really business gurus or they weren ’ t really interested in adequately planning how to spend taxpayers ’ money .
With a second round of mega-funding on the way , it ’ s still not clear whether they ’ ve learned from the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Fingers crossed .


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Most Small Firms Report Not Yet Getting Money From Virus Funds

“ Small businesses were prepared and ready to apply for these programs , the only financial support options for most , and it is very frustrating that the majority of these true small businesses haven ’ t received their loan yet , ” Holly Wade , NFIB director of research and policy analysis , said in a statement .
The $ 349 billion that Congress allocated for PPP , in which the U.S. Small Business Administration guaranteed loans for lenders to disburse , was exhausted on Thursday after just 13 days .
The SBA also stopped accepting applications for coronavirus-related @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 17 billion allocated for that program ran out .
Almost three-quarters of NFIB members who responded to the survey said they applied for a PPP loan , while 26 % said they were in the process of submitting an application when funding ran out .
The NFIB said it didn ’ t ask how many members who applied had been approved but not yet funded .
The program , which was enacted last month as part of a $ 2.2 trillion relief package in response to the virus outbreak , offered loans of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The loans convert to grants if proceeds are used to keep workers on the payroll and cover rent and other approved expenses for about two months , a short-term stopgap designed to help businesses get by until the economy reopens .
About 40 % of NFIB members surveyed reported applying for an EIDL loan from the SBA , but only 1 % reported receiving proceeds as of April 17 .
Of those who applied for EIDL loans , 77 % also requested an emergency advance of as much as $ 10,000 that doesn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but only 10 % had received money , NFIB said .
The SBA has limited the advance to $ 1,000 per employee .
Less than half those that received funding got the full $ 10,000 available , the NFIB said .
The survey also showed that a majority of NFIB members think the economy won ’ t recover until next year or later .
Asked how long they think it will take for their local economy to return to near pre-crisis levels , 39 % said some time in 2021 .
A total @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while 20 % said between 2022 and 2024 .
Just 11 % said by this July and 4 % said after 2024 .
The survey was conducted by email April 17 with a random sample of the group ’ s membership database of about 300,000 small businesses owners , with 885 usable responses , the NFIB said .


washingtonpost--2020-04-07--Analysis | Samsung’s Symptom-Less Earnings Don’t Make It Immune

Investors should also note that earnings are reported in Korean won .
Samsung ’ s numbers may have been helped by the fact that the won weakened 6.1 % against the U.S. dollar in the quarter , the most in more than four years ( the currency swung wildly during the period , so the company ’ s average exchange rate may have been different ) .
With the coronavirus having shut down swathes of the global economy , any growth is to be lauded .
Peers including Apple Inc. aren ’ t likely to have performed as well .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ thinking that Samsung is in the clear .
Much of the strength during the period probably came from its chip business , driven by the needs of internet companies like web-conferencing provider Zoom Video Communications Inc .
These have had to boost server capacity to cope with higher demand from employees forced to work from home amid the pandemic .
More than 40 % of Samsung ’ s revenue comes from handsets .
This sector was already looking lackluster before the coronavirus outbreak .
Now , with the U.S. having reported an astonishing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks , much of Europe on lockdown , and most of Asia in varying degrees of economic strife , it ’ s unlikely that consumers are eager to pony up for a flashy new smartphone .
Apple ’ s largest supplier has already felt the pinch .
On Monday , its Taiwanese assembler Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. announced first-quarter revenue dropped 12 % .
While Apple accounts for half of Hon Hai ’ s sales , the other half comes from a broad collection of companies including Dell Technologies Inc. , HP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unlikely any of them will come through this economic downturn unscathed .
Samsung has the strength , and most importantly the cash , to ride out what will certainly be a tough few quarters for the global economy .
That size doesn ’ t give it immunity .
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners .
For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion


washingtonpost--2020-04-07--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Coronavirus Pandemic

It ’ s been described as “ insidious ” because many infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , unwittingly spreading it to others .
The estimated median length of time between infection and the onset of symptoms is five to six days , and some of those who are infected don ’ t develop symptoms at all , including children .
A study of 191 patients in China found that the median duration of infectiousness was 20 days with a maximum of 37 days .
A Japanese study suggested that a substantial proportion of infections @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ill .
This can make it difficult to identify the people they had close contact with during that infectious period so that precautions can be taken against further spread .
Estimates of the fatality rate are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak because there may be many people with mild cases who go uncounted .
A number of projections have put the rate at about 1 % , which would make it 10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu .
A study published March 30 estimated it at 0.66 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of patients in the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS , and another known as MERS-CoV has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded since 2012 .
In those outbreaks , however , the viruses didn ’ t transmit from one person to another as efficiently as this new one does and didn ’ t spread as widely .
In the worst pandemic in recent history , the 1918 influenza hit as much as a third of the world ’ s population , killing about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an estimated 50 million people .
The last pandemic , an outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 flu ( swine flu ) in 2009 , infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and killed an estimated 12,469 of them in the first year it circulated .
It appears to cause a mild illness lasting about two weeks in children , adolescents and younger adults in most cases , and potentially more severe disease lasting three to six weeks in older people .
In a Chinese study , 81 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % were severe and 4.7 % critical .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , dry cough and tiredness .
A sudden loss of taste and smell is an early symptom among some patients .
Sputum production is another sign , if the virus stays in the nose and throat , which it does for the majority of people infected .
Danger starts when it reaches the lungs .
Apparently the elderly and those with underlying health issues .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with other illnesses such as high @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found that 81 % of deaths occurred in patients over 60 years old ; in another study of about 4,000 cases in the U.S. , 80 % of those who died were 65 or older .
( By contrast , in the H1N1 pandemic , about 80 % of those who died were younger than 65 , according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention . )
By coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can be transferred directly to someone in close proximity or by touching a contaminated surface and then the mouth , nose or eyes .
One study concluded that the coronavirus can survive four hours on copper , 24 hours on cardboard , 48 hours on stainless steel and 72 hours on plastic .
Simple disinfectants kill it .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the coronavirus can spread through feces or in tiny airborne particles known as aerosols .
In a preliminary study , researchers who deliberately aerosolized it under laboratory conditions found @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as three hours .
The WHO stressed , however , that according to current evidence , the possibility of airborne transmission is limited to medical procedures with Covid-19 patients that generate aerosols , such as tracheostomies .
The agency noted that in an analysis of more than 75,000 cases in China , no airborne transmission was reported .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people likely to be infected by an individual with the virus .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( pronounced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
A study of an outbreak aboard a cruise ship estimated that the r0 for Covid-19 was 2.28 during the early stages .
That would make it more infectious than seasonal flu , which has an r0 of about 1.3 and killed an estimated 61,000 people in the U.S. in the 2017-18 season .
That ’ s an important unknown .
With many pathogens , the body develops antibodies that protect against reinfection for life .
But it ’ s not always the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months or years has been found to be common with other human coronaviruses .
If enough people in a community develop immunity through prior illness or vaccination , so-called herd immunity can become established .
That reduces the number of susceptible people to a level at which transmission slows and eventually stops .
The necessary percentage depends on the r0 , but it ’ s generally high , for example 75 % for diphtheria and 91 % for measles .
Just because outbreaks of influenza wilt with seasonal changes doesn ’ t mean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same way , though there is some indication it may .
Some evidence suggests that as the weather warms , flu migrates to the opposite hemisphere , before returning again with cooler weather .
So , even if the coronavirus does subside in the summer , it could return in the fall .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them , responsible for diseases that range in severity from the common cold to MERS .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that new strains emerge periodically around the globe , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats .
Diseases transmissible from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as zoonoses , comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
There is no evidence that domestic animals , including pets and livestock , can spread Covid-19 to people , according to officials including at the WHO and the American Veterinary Medical Association .
But there have been examples of animals apparently contracting the disease from humans .
One tiger tested positive at the Bronx Zoo , according to the USDA National Veterinary Services Laboratories , which said evidence suggested the animal got it from an infected zoo employee .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ with infected owners are known to have tested positive , but Jacqui Norris , a professor of veterinary microbiology and infectious diseases at the University of Sydney , said the timing of those results also indicated human-to-animal transmission .
Thousands of other animals tested have been negative .
To be safe , health officials recommend that a sick person avoid contact with all other members of the household , including pets .
If that ’ s not possible , use proper hand hygiene .


washingtonpost--2020-04-07--Analysis | Why Bankers Don’t Want to Lend to Your Local Hair Salon

Hence the speedy government measures to alleviate the SME cash crunch .
Within days of cutting back economic activity , policymakers rolled out plans to disburse hundreds of billions of dollars to keep companies alive , packages that would typically take months to hammer out .
But designing state-funded schemes that get the money where it ’ s needed quickly is a huge challenge .
The evidence so far suggests that , while banks can help facilitate this process , there ’ s a limit to how much of the financial burden they ’ re prepared to take on .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ long-term consequences of policy errors could be severe .
Propping up companies that face a long-term solvency threat beyond the coronavirus outbreak will merely delay the inevitable ; and loading up firms with yet more debt could hold back their recovery .
Getting financing to SMEs is hard at the best of times .
Banks are typically reluctant to lend without borrowers ’ pledges of collateral , and the costs involved are high , especially for young companies .
In Europe , lenders have been given incentives to lend to SMEs by being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their capital to cover their overall loans .
But many banks are only just recovering from the last “ bad-loan ” crisis , and they still see huge risks in the SME world .
Even when government guarantees are in place , they would still like collateral on their loans from the company concerned .
While Europe ’ s governments looked first to the banks to help mitigate the economic carnage cause by coronavirus lockdowns , the limits of what the industry was prepared to take on has become apparent .
Take the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SMEs as of last week , only about 1,000 have been approved , totaling a paltry 90.5 million pounds ( $ 112 million ) .
Under the terms of the country ’ s Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme , lenders have been told they can not demand personal guarantees for loans below a certain threshold , a requirement that had rightly incensed borrowers .
British banks will be on the hook for 20 % of the coronavirus scheme ’ s loans , with the government guaranteeing the rest , and any losses will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Other countries have taken the view that this is too much to ask of their lenders .
From the EU to the U.S. , other national policymakers have concluded that their banks can offer little more than their processing services to get money to companies fast .
Expecting them to take on the credit risk for 10 % or 20 % of the loans is seen as unrealistic when borrowers might run out of cash within weeks .
Following guidance from the EU that member states could back 100 % of these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 870,000 ) , Germany this week presented a new “ limitless ” loan program for companies with between 11 and 250 employees .
Italy will start offering similar .
Switzerland ’ s SME program has been a model , including a first tranche of loans that are backed fully by the government for up to 500,000 Swiss francs ( $ 514,000 ) .
Companies have been receiving funds within hours .
A second tranche can follow with an 85 % state guarantee .
However , it ’ s not just banks who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of non-performing loans .
Governments do too when they ’ re loading up on debt , especially Europe ’ s weaker economies .
While keeping companies alive is essential , policymakers need to keep weighing up the longer term implications .
Rather than letting banks off the hook completely , an alternative would be providing longer-dated debt where lenders share the risk .
After all , not all businesses will survive and the banks can help be a little more cool-headed about assessing to whom that might apply — notwithstanding the inevitable howls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
For example , the retail sector was already struggling with the dominance of Amazon in pre-Covid-19 days , and casual dining chains also faced severe challenges .
Lenders should play a role in working through businesses ’ probable chances of success .
There ’ s also a risk in the current approach of handing out loans to companies based on a percentage of their sales .
That may work for some industries , but it might leave companies that principally trade goods — whose revenues are often much higher than their profits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
One size does not fit all .
Governments are doing the right thing by rushing to meet the funding needs of business through the shutdown .
Which companies exit the crisis , and how , will need equal attention .


washingtonpost--2020-04-07--Analysis | Emerging Markets Are Peering Over the Precipice

The persistent strength of the dollar , despite plentiful liquidity , has pushed major emerging currencies such as the Mexican Peso , the South African Rand and the Brazilian Real to depreciate by about 25 % this year .
The U.S. Federal Reserve has acted swiftly to extend dollar swaps , which give foreign central banks the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to their institutions , but the attractiveness of dollar cash outweighs all in a crisis .
The oil price crash couldn ’ t have come at a worse time as it drags down commodity prices ( on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and halts business investment .
The G20 ’ s energy ministers may meet this week to discuss the slump .
They might want to encourage their finance ministers and central bank colleagues to try to find a mutual response for pegging back the dollar as well .
One radical approach would be joint action from central banks to sell dollar reserves in favor of other currencies .
The G7 countries did something similar to halt the rise of the yen after Japan ’ s earthquake and tsunami in 2011 .
More important is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ response at the ready if this pandemic causes havoc among the weaker developing countries .
A global safety net is needed to keep funding available for low-income countries .
The International Monetary Fund will need a major injection of capital .
Its existing $ 1 trillion firepower is inadequate with more than 80 countries already sounding it out for help .
Confidence is low in the IMF after last year ’ s failed $ 57 billion bailout of Argentina , but it remains the best vehicle for the G20 to use in a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
This might require new issuance of the only truly global currency , the IMF ’ s so-called “ special drawing rights ” ( an international reserve asset whose value is based on the price of a basket of currencies : the dollar , the euro , the yuan , the yen and the pound ) .
Wealthier countries could help by forgoing some of their own quota to let the IMF roll out much more comprehensive aid to countries that need it .
Speed and flexibility will be critical if the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as hard as they have major western economies .
More than half of the world ’ s lowest-income countries were in distress before the pandemic .
But borrowing has been rising fast with dollar debt in the “ frontier markets ” ( the tier below emerging markets ) now exceeding $ 200 billion .
More than one-quarter of local currency debt in emerging markets is owned by foreigners , so it ’ s especially vulnerable to capital flight .
Emerging market corporate debt has ballooned to more than $ 2.3 trillion .
China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during the last financial crisis but it doesn ’ t have the same firepower now with so much more credit leverage in its own financial system .
The stability of the Yuan to the dollar is paramount for Beijing .
It can not risk another capital outflow crisis as happened in 2015 and 2016 .
Countries without oil and other big natural resource assets have also seen their currencies plunge , including those with large current account deficits ( such as Turkey ) or those that rely heavily on dollar funding ( many @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) , Ecuador ( oil ) and Zambia ( copper ) are close to defaulting .
Argentina and Lebanon have already .
South Africa , which relies heavily on overseas funding , lost its last investment-grade rating recently .
Its already stricken state-owned power company Eskom is facing a big hit to revenue from the coronavirus lockdown .
Indonesia — whose virus death toll has surged to become the highest in Asia after China — managed to raise several billion dollars in a record bond sale on Monday at interest rates of between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to 2.5 % a month ago ) , showing that the debt capital markets remain open for at least the stronger emerging nations .
Being able to fund yourself is always better than relying on international support .
But not all countries are as fortunate as Indonesia .
The G20 needs to think now of a joined-up financial response for the rest of the world before it ’ s too late .


washingtonpost--2020-04-07--Analysis | Ronaldo and Messi Put Players in England to Shame

It ’ s a shameless gambit on behalf of the players which reflects poorly on Britain ’ s most prominent modern cultural export — its top soccer competition — which is watched by 3.2 billion people around the world , fans for whom last weekend ’ s canceled fixture between league leaders Liverpool F.C .
and Manchester City F.C .
would have been a priority .
Slashing players ’ wages , the union argued , would deprive the U.K. Treasury of more than 200 million pounds ( $ 246 million ) of income .
That ’ s not untrue based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top tax rate and the 1.5 billion pounds spent on Premier League talents ’ salaries each year .
Yet it fails to take into account the potential cost to taxpayers of the Premier League club ’ s furloughed workers who don ’ t earn their income kicking around an inflated pig ’ s bladder ( or at least , a latex bladder wrapped in polyurethane panels ) .
A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows it would cost the government around 200 million pounds if all of the Premier League ’ s 20 teams were to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1 ) Of course the 30 % wage cut and deferrals being mooted by the Premier League would reduce the clubs ’ costs by considerably more — in excess of 400 million pounds this year .
But as the league says , the clubs are facing “ substantial and continued losses ” because no games are being played .
It ’ s only fair that their single biggest cost , the players , should make sacrifices .
This isn ’ t sitting well with some of the players .
In a Sunday Times @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rooney asked , “ Why are footballers suddenly the scapegoats ?
” Rooney , who currently plies his trade for second-tier Derby County F.C.
, carped that the move aims to force players “ into a corner where they have to pick up the bill for lost revenue.
” He ’ s quite right , that ’ s exactly what ’ s happening .
And rightly so .
The players are paid to entertain millions of people live in stadiums and on TV .
They ’ re not doing that at the moment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ultimately pay them to do so — the fans — are lining up in the jobless queue after being laid off .
During such an extraordinary time of fear and uncertainty , people want their sports idols to be role models for us all .
That was apparently lost on the England defender Kyle Walker who broke with government guidance to self-isolate to hold a “ lockdown party ” complete with sex workers .
The Man City player issued an apology on Sunday after it was reported by the tabloids .
Some players @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and there ’ s a move led by Liverpool F.C .
captain Jordan Henderson to set up a charitable foundation .
But a collective wage gesture by Premier League stars seems an easy way for players to show they understand the gravity of the situation .
A player giving up 30 % of the league ’ s median 2.3 million pounds-per-year salary would cover the household income of 24 other normal jobs .
There are differences , I get it .
Barcelona is owned by its fans , while Premier League clubs are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ player agreeing to forgo some pay in England risks simply lining the pockets of the club owner .
But that hasn ’ t stopped Juventus Football Club SpA , the publicly traded Italian team controlled by the Agnelli family , from reaching a deal with its players and coach to sacrifice three months ’ salary .
Barca ’ s Lionel Messi and Juve ’ s Cristiano Ronaldo — the greatest players of their generation — are acting like the role models they ’ re supposed to be .
There ’ s an argument @ @ @ @ @ @ @ absorb some costs themselves .
Both Tottenham Hotspur F.C .
and Newcastle F.C.
, teams already using the furlough program , have fabulously wealthy owners , for instance .
For Spurs , it ’ s the Bahamas-based currency trader Joe Lewis , whose net worth is $ 5.3 billion , according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index .
For the Magpies , it ’ s retail magnate Mike Ashley , worth $ 2.4 billion .
Both have cash assets of more than $ 1 billion , per the ranking .
Tapping that to pay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ financial fair play rules that limit spending on the first-team squad .
Crucially , though , those financial regulations mean that players are essentially paid by what clubs make from fans .
Players might argue that they have , at most , 15 years ’ earning power as a professional athlete , so they need to earn every penny possible while they can .
But a few months ’ reduced salary when you ’ re stuck at home kicking a ball against a wall rather than performing for a crowd , while others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sick or keep the local grocery store open and stocked , is no real sacrifice .
The two are not mutually exclusive : it ’ s not unreasonable to expect both the players and the owners to stomach the pain .
And it ’ s far better for the players to assume the moral high ground , and kick the focus to the owners .


washingtonpost--2020-04-07--Analysis | Mask or No Mask? Why the Guidance Has Been Shifting

Precedent explains part of it .
In eastern Asia , the practice of wearing medical masks in public is well-established .
It emerged as a convention during the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS ) , which also was caused by a coronavirus .
For another thing , there ’ s no scientific consensus on the value of wearing a mask in public .
A few small studies have suggested that widespread use of face masks by the public may have reduced transmission in outbreaks of influenza and SARS , which like Covid-19 are respiratory diseases .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ considered conclusive .
Many medical specialists say one should , especially in light of evidence that a significant portion of those infected with the novel coronavirus don ’ t show symptoms and so may remain out and about .
Others have argued that it ’ s irresponsible for members of the public to buy up masks that are in short supply .
In its new guidance , the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said , “ Do NOT use a facemask meant for a healthcare worker.
” The scarcity among health-care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Adams has said , raises the overall risk to the community : Infected providers can spread the virus to the uninfected and once sick can ’ t look after patients .
The argument is that everyone is better off if medical masks are reserved for those who certainly require them and who can ’ t avoid exposure to people who are infected or might be .
As long as medical masks remain in short supply , some health specialists , including those at the CDC , are proposing that people cover their faces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hand-sewn from fabric or improvised using a bandana or scarf , for instance .
The evidence so far is that the novel coronavirus spreads in respiratory droplets -- spatters of liquid expelled when an infected person coughs , sneezes or even speaks .
These droplets are usually heavy enough to fall immediately to the ground or surrounding surfaces .
Transmission can occur if the droplets reach the mouth , nose or eye of someone nearby , either directly or from an unwashed hand that ’ s touched a contaminated object or surface .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ cover , the droplets can be caught by the mask rather than being expelled .
In theory , wearing a face covering could also help protect people who are uninfected , if it stops them from touching their face .
However , according to the WHO , there is currently “ no evidence ” that public mask wearing by healthy people prevents infection with respiratory viruses such as the one that causes Covid-19 .
Protocols prescribe that patients infected with the virus that causes Covid-19 should be isolated and given a mask to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ type worn by surgeons -- the loose-fitting , one-size-fits-all kind that ’ s rectangular when flat .
Health-care providers who deal with such patients or with confirmed cases are directed to wear a more sophisticated mask called a respirator , which is designed to protect the user .
They come in different sizes so they can be fit to the wearer ’ s face to provide a tight seal .
That forces the user to pull air through the device ’ s filter rather than through gaps on the sides .
They are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ droplets but also smaller aerosolized particles that can carry infectious agents and float for a time through the air .
Airborne transmission has not been reported for Covid-19 , but there is a risk that certain medical procedures , such as tracheotomy and airway suction , can generate virally contaminated aerosols .
Respirators are uncomfortable to wear for a long period of time .
They retain heat and exert pressure on the face , and some people find they make it difficult to breathe , which can make them unsuitable for those with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ issued guidance on how to conserve limited gear and what to do if it runs short .
The measures , which don ’ t meet usual standards , include using respirators beyond their designated shelf life and wearing the same one to attend to several patients without removing it .
The agency said that limited reuse of respirators might become necessary but counseled caution .
It said a last resort would be to turn to untested versions , including homemade masks .
Some U.S. hospitals have already adopted these options , with several @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In guidance issued April 6 , the WHO said the use of masks by healthy members of the public may create a false sense of security , leading people to neglect essential measures such as hand-washing and keeping at a distance from other people .
It also said wearing a mask can encourage people to touch their faces , which can increase the chances of becoming infected with the coronavirus .
Health care professionals emphasize that if you ’ re going to use a mask , it ’ s vital to do so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact with it : put it on with clean hands , replace it as soon as it becomes damp , remove it from behind without touching the front , wash your hands afterward , and dispose of the mask properly .
The WHO counsels against reusing masks that are made for a single use .


washingtonpost--2020-03-25--Analysis | How the Fed’s Swap Lines Aim at Dollar Funding Stress

First used extensively during the 2007-2008 financial crisis , they ’ re temporary lending facilities that allow central banks around the world to borrow dollars from the Fed in exchange for an equivalent amount of their local currencies .
On March 15 , the Fed and five major central banks , including those in the euro zone and Japan , said they ’ d activate the program to ease a squeeze as demand for the dollar surged .
It subsequently increased the frequency of seven-day maturity operations to daily from weekly .
The Fed also lowered the rate and added @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it expanded the swap line to nine other central banks , including Australia and Brazil , bringing the total to 14 .
The goal is to ease the panic for dollars and allow foreign-exchange markets to keep operating normally .
Surging volatility in stock and bond markets has spurred a rush to secure the U.S. currency for borrowers and as a haven against further turmoil .
Central banks , sovereign wealth funds and U.S. based asset managers who would otherwise invest their greenbacks have pulled their lending , creating a dollar vacuum .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ at times because bank funding markets are global and can break down “ disrupting the provision of credit to households and businesses in the United States and other countries.
” That ’ s the big question .
While the measures can ease pressures for banks , the effect is felt in the broader economy only if these lenders extend more dollar loans to companies and other financial institutions .
Banks also may shun a central bank swap line because of a stigma attached to tapping it .
Making dollars available to foreign nations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cost the Fed -- became a point of contention for some lawmakers in the U.S. Congress during the 2008 crisis .
The central bank had to repeatedly defend the action , saying U.S. taxpayers were not on the hook because these were swaps -- not loans -- and there was no risk of default .
Back to 2020 , the early signs were promising as banks in mainland Europe and the U.K. took billions of dollars on offer from their central banks .
The dollar shortage became acute as the greenback soared on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the British pound to the Brazilian real into free fall .
As stocks plunged and investors fled to U.S. Treasury bonds amid the global coronavirus pandemic , the currency derivative market showed signs of stress .
There was a notable move in cross-currency basis swaps , revealing a preference among investors to hold dollars rather than euros or yen .
Japanese banks have taken more than $ 150 billion from these funding operations in an attempt to satiate demand and also to hoard dollars ahead of the end of the fiscal year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ increased substantially since the global financial crisis , while they have declined for their European counterparts , according to the Bank for International Settlements .
The European Central Bank can charge a fee for accepting collateral in return for lending dollars , which may make the transaction more expensive .
Some banks may in turn find it cheaper to access dollars in the open market , even when liquidity conditions are tight , reducing the demand for these operations .
They ’ re contracts where two sides agree to exchange interest payments in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the contract , floating interest-rate payments are exchanged , typically on a quarterly basis .
On March 17 , the premium paid to swap funding exposure from euros into the dollar surged to the widest since 2011 .
The premium narrowed in the days that followed , though it remained elevated .
That suggests investors were still struggling to get their hands on dollars despite injections of cash into financial markets by the Fed .
Dollar funding stress is particularly pronounced for yen- and euro-based investors , based on cross-currency basis swaps @ @ @ @ @ @ @ exposure from the yen into the dollar was evident from the start of February -- coinciding with the rally in Treasuries -- the euro-denominated market was more resilient until mid-March .
The moves have also come at a time when financial companies become increasingly cautious about lending to each other and demand higher premiums on interest over risk-free rates , known as the FRA/OIS spread .
Banks are the biggest users , while hedge funds and proprietary trading firms rank second .
The favored currencies are the dollar , euro and yen .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ typically range from 1 to 30 years , reflecting the length of the transactions they fund , such as loans .
What makes them unique in the world of swaps is that the parties agree to exchange notional principals , or the face amount used to calculate the payments .
Let ’ s say a European company needs a dollar loan .
While the firm may be well-established on the continent , banks in the U.S. may demand a stiffer rate to lend to a relatively little-known entity on the other side of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ swap .
The European firm borrows in euros and swaps the payment into dollars with another entity that needs funds in Europe ’ s common currency .
That ’ s the million-dollar question .
If investors continue to seek the safety of Treasuries and stocks keep tumbling , the preference to swap out funding exposure into the dollar may persist .
The pressure may be more pronounced in the yen market because it ’ s historically been a good proxy for institutional funding stress .