washingtonpost--2020-04-14--Analysis | In Lockdown, People Don’t Reach for Premium Beers

The company is facing challenges on several fronts , all of which are compounded by the hit from Covid-19 .
For a start , the $ 100 billion acquisition of SABMiller in 2016 left it with a mountain of debt .
Before taking into account the dividend cut , Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling estimates net debt of $ 86 billion will be 5.7 times Ebitda at the end of this year .
Second , the company is highly dependent on emerging markets , where it gets about 60 % of its profit .
And yet important currencies including the Brazilian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dollar , putting more pressure on earnings .
This is the absolute worst time for any form of socializing to evaporate because it hurts sales of the more premium brands , such as AB InBev ’ s Michelob Ultra .
It ’ s unlikely an upswing in drinking at home can compensate for a decline in sales at pubs and restaurants for any brewer .
Beer in supermarkets tends to be bought when it is on special offer .
And even at home , beer and alcohol consumption can be driven by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the European Football Championships and Olympics will hurt .
Given this backdrop , AB InBev should have gone further and canceled its final dividend altogether .
True , another $ 1 billion wouldn ’ t have made a huge difference , and may have irritated the group ’ s big shareholders , tobacco giant Altria Group Inc. and Colombia ’ s Santo Domingo family .
But it should have erred on the side of caution anyway .
It ’ s a choice the company has faced before , and now it ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more radical when it decided in October 2018 to halve its annual payout , from 3.6 euros to 1.8 euros , saving about $ 4 billion .
At the time , the company described this as steering a middle course between maintaining and shelving the dividend .
But Covid-19 makes the middle an even more painful place to be .
AB InBev should not lose this latest opportunity , when it announces interim results in July , or sooner , to reset its dividend policy , and cancel the payout altogether .
While @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , there ’ s no guarantee that the things that drive beer consumption , from big concerts and sporting events to local pub life , will come back quickly .
And when they do , people around the world may still be reluctant to visit crowded venues .
And that ’ s before any impact from a broader economic downturn .
Thrifty consumers may continue to trade down to cheaper brews .
It ’ s this uncertain future that calls for caution .
Yes , AB InBev is good at controlling spending .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ debt load .
It recently raised about $ 11 billion of bonds to bolster liquidity .
Debt has an average maturity of 14 years , so there shouldn ’ t be any immediate cash crunch .
But the recent pressures on trading do raise questions about whether it should continue to have about $ 128 billion of goodwill on its balance sheet .
When AB InBev bought SABMiller , rival brewers risked becoming Megbrew roadkill .
Today , with stronger balance sheets , Heineken NV and Carlsberg A/S look better placed to weather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ time for AB InBev to make some hard choices .


washingtonpost--2020-04-03--Analysis | When, and How, Does the Coronavirus Pandemic End?

There ’ s a consensus that the pandemic will only end with the establishment of so-called herd immunity .
That occurs when enough people in a community are protected from a pathogen that it can ’ t take hold and dies out .
There are two paths to that outcome .
One is immunization .
Researchers would have to develop a vaccine that proves safe and effective against the coronavirus , and health authorities would have to get it to a sufficient number of people .
The second path to herd immunity is grimmer : It can also come about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been infected with a pathogen and develops resistance to it that way .
For many countries , the strategy is to lock down movement to dramatically slow the spread , closing businesses and schools , banning gatherings and keeping people at home .
The idea is to prevent a huge burst of infections that overwhelms the medical system , causing excessive deaths as care is rationed .
“ Flattening the curve ” staggers cases over a longer period of time and buys authorities and health-care providers time to mobilize -- to build @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contacts of those who are infected , and for treating the sick , by expanding hospital facilities , including ventilators and intensive-care units .
The public shouldn ’ t expect life to return to normal quickly .
Lifting restrictions too early risks inviting a new spike .
Authorities in China began to re-open the city of Wuhan , where the pandemic began , two months after it was sealed off from the world , when transmission had virtually halted .
But China ’ s measures were stricter than anywhere else so far , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ back to a lockdown .
England ’ s deputy chief medical officer , Jenny Harries , said lockdown measures there need to last two , three or , ideally , up to six months .
Annelies Wilder-Smith , a professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , recommends restrictions stay in place until daily cases drop consistently over at least two weeks .
A road map authored by a group of U.S. health specialists including former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb calls for an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would reopen but gatherings would still be limited .
People would continue to be encouraged to keep at a distance from one another , and those at high risk would be advised to limit their time in public .
If cases begin to rise again , restrictions would be tightened .
Their report , published by the pro-business American Enterprise Institute , is arguably more optimistic than the future envisioned by researchers at Imperial College London .
Their models suggest that for at least two-thirds of the time until herd immunity is established @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contact with schools , workplaces or the public by 75 % .
In any case , the widespread availability of testing is important in this stage .
At the heart of the U.S. plan : at least 750,000 tests per week .
This virus is wreaking so much havoc , not because it ’ s especially lethal , but because it ’ s insidious ; many who are infected are well enough to go about their daily business , unwittingly spreading it to others .
That makes it vital to test for infection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ test everyone with symptoms .
That way , those who are infectious can be put in isolation and everyone they ’ ve had close contact with while contagious can be tracked down , tested and if necessary isolated as well , limiting the spread in the community .
Another kind of test looks for antibodies to see who has already beaten the virus and is thus unlikely to be re-infected , at least for a time .
Once widely available , such tests might enable people who test positive for antibodies to move @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as China can impose stricter controls on movement and more intrusive means of surveillance , such as house-to-house fever checks , tracing and enforcement of quarantines , and are less vulnerable to pressure from businesses and popular opinion .
That gives them powerful tools to keep the virus in check , so long as they are vigilant against imported cases .
That ’ s a more difficult proposition for other nations .
The poorest countries can less easily afford the economic losses caused by prolonged restrictions , and often don ’ t have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dozens of companies and universities around the world are working on it , but there ’ s no guarantee they will prevail .
Vaccine development normally is a long and complex process that includes years of testing to ensure shots are safe and effective .
In the coronavirus fight , some of the players aim to deliver a vaccine in 12 to 18 months , an extraordinarily ambitious goal .
As well as using tried-and-true approaches , scientists are relying on new technologies , like those that add viral genetic material to human @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that spur an immune response .
Some vaccine specialists believe governments , citizens and investors should temper their optimism .
It ’ s not clear if the methods will work , that the timelines will be met or that companies will be able to manufacture enough shots .
First , it would occur only if recovering from an infection leaves people with lasting immunity .
It ’ s not yet known if that ’ s the case with the novel coronavirus .
The portion of a population that would have to be exposed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is also unknown .
Generally , it ’ s high , for example 75 % for diphtheria and 91 % for measles .
Patrick Vallance , the U.K. government ’ s chief scientific adviser , estimated the figure at 60 % in February .
How long it would take to reach the necessary threshold would depend on measures governments impose in response to the pandemic .
Without tight restrictions , it would be faster yet come at a steep cost in illness and deaths as health systems would be overburdened .
Some research @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much higher than the confirmed cases .
If that ’ s true , countries are closer to herd immunity than we know .
We could get lucky , and the virus could fade with the onset of summer in the northern hemisphere , where most cases are , just like outbreaks of influenza subside with seasonal changes .
But it remains unknown whether warmer weather will play a role .
Even if the outbreak wanes , it could return in the fall .
Some are pinning their hopes on an ultra-effective therapy or @ @ @

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washingtonpost--2020-05-17--U.S. Cases Slow; Disney Starts to Open in Florida: Virus Update

Governor Gavin Newsom said about 75 % of California ’ s economy is reopened as dozens of counties get restaurants , offices , manufacturing , logistics and warehouses back operating .
People are observing physical distancing and wearing face coverings , Newsom said on CNN ’ s “ State of the Union.
” One missing element : stadiums with sports fans .
“ As much as we want to see that happen , ” he said , “ the health consequences could be profound and devastating and set back all the progress we have made.
” Colorado Governor Jared Polis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parents may keep their children at home when schools shut by the pandemic reopen , which he said could have a side benefit .
“ It means there can be less crowding at the schools because of those individual choices that some parents make to continue with online until it ’ s even safer , ” Polis said on “ Fox News Sunday.
” “ The virus was spawned in Wuhan province , patient zero was in November , ” White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said on ABC ’ s “ This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the shield of the World Health Organization , for two months hid the virus from the world and then sent hundreds of thousands of Chinese on aircraft to Milan , New York and around the world to seed that .
”


washingtonpost--2020-05-16--U.K. Speeds Vaccine Work; Brazil’s New Cases Surge: Virus Update

When asked if rates could go turn negative , Haldane said “ it ’ s something we ’ ll need to look at -- are looking at -- with somewhat greater immediacy , ” according to the Telegraph .
He said there are other options , such as expanding the bank ’ s bond purchases .
Brazil Vice President Hamilton Mourao and his wife are in self isolation after a civil servant he was in contact with tested positive for the coronavirus , his press office said in a note .
Mourao and his wife have been tested and are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Monday , according to the note .
Conte forged an agreement with regional governors to pave the way for relaxing rules that have crippled the euro area ’ s third-biggest economy .
“ We are taking a calculated risk , aware that the contagion curve could rise again , ” Conte told reporters at his Rome residence.Businesses including shops , bars , restaurants and barbers can open on a regional basis , and Italians will be able to move within their own region from Monday .
Italy will unlock its borders and allow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ June 3 .
Once patients self-swab , they ship the sample to a lab that is running an in-vitro diagnostic test , the agency said .
The FDA said Everlywell ’ s emergency use authorization covers individuals at home who have been screened by an online questionnaire that ’ s been reviewed by a health-care provider .
The FDA also authorized two Covid-19 diagnostic tests that are performed at specific labs .
President Donald Trump said U.S. payments to the World Health Organization that he froze last month may return at 10 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the cut is one of numerous options he ’ s considering .
A cut to 10 % would match “ much lower China payments , ” Trump said in a tweet responding to broadcaster Lou Dobbs .
“ Have not made final decision .
All funds are frozen , ” Trump said .
The president instructed his administration in mid-April to temporarily halt WHO funding because the United Nations agency took China ’ s claims about the coronavirus “ at face value ” and failed to share information about the pandemic as it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 893 million to the WHO ’ s operations during its current two-year funding cycle .


washingtonpost--2020-02-11--Analysis | Coronavirus Stokes Mask Production and Mass Confusion

The world ’ s biggest mask producer is facing a severe shortage .
Even running at full capacity , China can make only 20 million a day , nowhere close to meeting the needs of the 776 million who are slowly returning to work .
As for prized surgical and N95 masks ( which provide even more coverage ) , China can produce only about 2.2 million and 600,000 daily .
The country has roughly 12 million medical professionals .
In the last week of January , China had to purchase more than 56 million masks from overseas , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Precision Industry Co. took matters into its own hands when it started to make masks for employees at its flagship factory in Shenzhen .
Once again , China ’ s bureaucrats have proven their incompetence , starting with the government of Hubei province , whose slow response accelerated the viral spread in the first place .
Even under lockdown , Hubei of all provinces shouldn ’ t be this short of protective medical gear .
Xiantao , a provincial city there , is a major industrial hub for the non-woven products used in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ local officials told producers that unless their goods have been cleared for sale within China , factories can ’ t reopen until Feb. 14 .
This has created a social uproar .
Many of these masks aren ’ t cleared for sale in the mainland because they ’ re exported .
These businesses often lack domestic licenses precisely for this reason .
Within days , the provincial government had to reverse course , because the proposed regulation would have shut downroughly half of Xiantao ’ s production capacity .
In the manufacturing hub @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into overdrive , encouraging local businesses to switch to mask production by offering generous subsidies .
Companies that purchased production lines and got online by Feb. 7 received as much as 80 % in rebates from the government ; those meeting a Feb. 20 deadline can have up to half of their equipment costs paid for .
It ’ s no surprise that companies are now making masks , including automakers such as BYD Co. and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co .
But this shift has stoked its own form of panic .
When @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Guangdong-based C & S Paper Co. , said it purchased five production lines with a daily capacity of about 350,000 masks , speculation was rife on social media about possible disruption to the paper-goods supply chain .
This helps explain why Hong Kong had a toilet-paper run last week : The likes of C & S might just be too busy making surgical masks .
Judging by how well the stock market is doing , it seems global investors have learned to forgive China .
Many have argued that , of all countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can weather this epidemic better than others .
The reality is a lot murkier .
We have one province so bogged down by licensing issues that its much-needed factories are lying fallow ; another whose overly generous subsidies could be providing the wrong incentives and inadvertently stoking consumer panic .
As it turns out , China ’ s bureaucracy is a lot less efficient than we imagined .
Don ’ t be surprised if we see a diaper run , too .
Even those manufacturers have switched to making masks .


washingtonpost--2020-02-11--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Spreading Coronavirus

It has been described as “ insidious ” because a large portion of infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , potentially spreading it to others .
In two months , the number of confirmed cases and deaths surpassed those in the entire SARS epidemic .
As of early February the apparent mortality rate was about 2 % , lower than the 9.5 % rate for SARS .
But such numbers are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak .
Some disease modeling experts project anywhere from 75,000 to hundreds of thousands of people are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t even know they have it .
One study published Feb. 10 estimated a mortality rate of 1 % once all cases , including those with no or only mild symptoms , are counted .
Infections appear to cause a mild illness in children , adolescents and younger adults , and potentially more severe disease in older people .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , dry cough and tiredness -- but not the sneezing and runny nose typical of a cold .
In severe cases , studies suggest the virus invades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ migrates to the lungs , causing difficulty breathing and the inflammation and congestion associated with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with underlying illnesses such as cardiovascular disease .
It ’ s genetically similar to the SARS virus but appears milder in terms of illness and case fatality rate .
Another related virus , known as MERS-CoV , that ’ s been spreading since 2012 has led @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2,499 cases recorded .
By contrast , an estimated 50 million people died in the 1918 influenza pandemic that had a case-fatality ratio of less than 5 % , but infected up to a third of the world ’ s population .
Most likely by coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that are emitted when an infected person breathes , talks , coughs or sneezes .
These can be transferred directly to someone else in close proximity or via hands and surfaces .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the virus can spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in tiny particles known as aerosols .
People who are still incubating the virus and show no symptoms may spread it .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people a person who is infected is likely to infect .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
The World Health Organization gives a preliminary range of 1.4 to 2.5 for 2019-nCoV .
At the high end , that makes it similar to SARS and more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing estimated the number to be 4.08 .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
The WHO says that new strains emerge periodically around the globe , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
They tend to morph and mutate , which means the level of risk they pose can change the longer they circulate in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is even more closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats than it is to the SARS coronavirus .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when a new pathogen emerges in people because they typically lack immunity to it and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel coronaviruses , those not seen in humans before , represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , like SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
Unlike SARS , relatively few cases have been reported outside mainland China .
But in Hubei , thousands of people have been hospitalized in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in intensive care units , creating what officials there have described as an “ extreme , severe and abrupt public health crisis.
” A Wuhan hospital saw coronavirus infections spread rapidly among health-care staff and other patients , according to a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association .
China ’ s government imposed a quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in the region , a travel ban covering in excess of 50 million people .
New hospitals were built from the ground up in days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ramped up .
The WHO has declared the outbreak a global health emergency , a designation that can help mobilize international responses .
Anyone caught spreading misinformation was subject to criminal charges in some Asian countries .
Hong Kong , the international financial center that functions with some autonomy from China , announced its own travel restrictions from the mainland .
The U.S. , Australia , India and other countries were denying or restricting entry for non-citizens arriving from China in an attempt to stop the virus ’ s spread , although the @ @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-02-11--Analysis | Under Armour’s New CEO Makes an Ugly Start

At first glance , the surprise sales and profit warning that Frisk , who spent two-and-a-half years as chief operating officer , announced on Tuesday , looks like the last thing he would have wanted to unleash on investors during his first update .
And that ’ s not all : Under Armour is also considering another restructuring , To be fair , some of the cut to revenue guidance is down to the coronavirus – a risk shared with rivals Nike Inc. and Adidas AG .
But it is also due to a decline in sales in North America @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and concentrate on the style , fit and performance of apparel have taken longer to bear fruit .
Profit estimates were also lowered : The mid-point of the $ 105 million to $ 125 million range would imply a halving of operating earnings from 2019 , according analysts at Bernstein .
The big downgrade is clearly unwelcome to investors , who may be forgiven for thinking they have been here before .
The group has been restructuring , including cutting jobs , for the past three years .
However , such a dramatic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to try to fix the U.S. business , where more work is clearly needed , and potentially scope to outperform later on .
There were some bright spots .
Under Armour ’ s gross margin , which expanded by 1.8 percentage points in 2019 , is forecast to widen by another 0.3 to 0.5 percentage point this year .
Inventories are also falling , and the wholesale market is showing signs of stabilizing .
Under Armour ’ s reduced outlook also paves the way for more cost-cutting .
Taking an ax to expenditure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million to $ 50 million in 2020 , even though this could cost as much as $ 425 million in pre-tax charges .
Of this , $ 225 million to $ 250 million relates to the possibility of foregoing opening a flagship store in New York .
Pausing this project looks wise given the outlook .
So Frisk may be erring on the side of caution as he takes the reins .
But there ’ s still considerable uncertainty as to whether Under Armour ’ s strategy — focused foremost on performance rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Meanwhile , competition from Nike and Adidas isn ’ t getting any easier , with the latter pushing ahead with its collaboration with Beyonce .
Add in a federal investigation into Under Armour ’ s accounting practices , and whether Plank will be able to relinquish some control and the outlook remains highly uncertain .


washingtonpost--2020-02-11--Analysis | Lord, Don’t You Buy Me an Oil Major’s Shares

Coronavirus has made amateur virologists out of many an investor , with the emphasis heavily on “ amateur.
” Tuesday morning saw oil prices , and stocks , surge as the market made one of its habitual segues from rank fear to blithe optimism .
The truth is that , whatever the current rate of new infections , the sector already has a chronic condition : cost-of-capital-itis .
Like Daimler , oil majors are juggling the demands of investing during a downturn , planning for a sea change in their business , and keeping investors sweet with payouts .
Royal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ yield roughly 7 % .
Even mighty Exxon Mobil Corp. now yields close to 6 % , the highest since the merger that spawned the combined company .
Exxon ’ s valuation looks especially vulnerable .
Its recent exploration success , a virtual guarantee of high multiples in years past , is now viewed as a call on cash shareholders would rather have .
Its integrated model has offered little respite in this weak oil market , with fourth-quarter results from the chemicals business especially poor — even before coronavirus piled on in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the company has been selling assets and taking on debt to meet payouts , and consensus forecasts imply earnings will struggle to cover dividends through this year and next .
The underlying cause is a collapse in return on capital , due to a wave of heavy spending on the back of the last commodity supercycle ( when China offered an unalloyed boost ) .
Returns have not only dropped but also compressed in range between the majors .
Analysts at Evercore ISI estimate Exxon ’ s return on capital employed dropped to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ par with 2016 — when average Brent crude prices were 30 % lower .
Looking at Exxon alongside Chevron Corp. , BP and Shell , it is telling that average returns for the group in 2013 — the last full year of triple-digit oil prices — were roughly those of 2009 , just after the financial crisis .
This problem predates not just coronavirus but also the oil crash .
This really becomes apparent when comparing energy ’ s share of the S & P 500 with oil prices .
The chart below @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by energy ’ s weighting to provide a ratio that can be thought of like this : How many real dollars per barrel does it take to buy the sector one percentage point in the S & P 500 ?
One of Daimler ’ s failures has been its relatively slow development of electric vehicles .
From one angle , that seems like a reasonable approach for an incumbent : Let others make mistakes and lose money developing a new market , and then deploy one ’ s established brand and resources to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ road-tested .
In practice , financial markets are nonplussed .
It has become a cliche to say Tesla Inc. ’ s supercharged market cap is now a multiple of stalwarts such as Daimler ’ s , despite the California upstart ’ s miniscule market share .
Don ’ t get me wrong ; I can not justify Tesla ’ s valuation on its fundamentals or any reasonable projection ( see this ) .
But that is kind of the point .
Many of Daimler ’ s problems — high costs , production delays @ @ @ @ @ @ @ familiar at Tesla too .
Yet the latter has gotten a pass .
It may not be right , but as the old saw goes , irrationality ’ s bank balance can be way bigger than yours .
A few years back , when Tesla was worth a mere $ 30 billion , I wrote oil majors should fear the company .
Not because it would necessarily conquer the world .
Rather , because investors were falling over themselves to give it capital in the absence of domination ( or profits ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the cash-spewing titans of oil .
Imagine the fallout if Exxon CEO Darren Woods took to Twitter ( in fact , just pause on that idea for a second ) and announced a fanciful take-private deal .
I ’ m no prophet , but I ’ m pretty sure ( a ) the stock wouldn ’ t have almost tripled since and ( b ) he would no longer be CEO .
Daimler ’ s predicament is another reason to be fearful .
Like the majors , it must convince investors that , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it takes to make the right choices ( and bets ) in an energy-transportation complex undergoing profound change after a century of incumbency .
Like them , it must somehow make the necessary investment using capital that has become scarcer , and therefore pricier .
We understand that we are in transformation .
Yes , the auto industry in the next years , next decade is going to change fundamentally .
This company is going to change fundamentally .
We are prepared to take the actions and the measures that we need to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out as a winner of this transformation


washingtonpost--2020-02-11--Analysis | Alibaba’s China Disconnect Cuts Hong Kong Dead

Granted , the Jack Ma-founded internet giant doesn ’ t qualify under the stock connect program ’ s existing arrangements , which exclude companies that have secondary listings with weighted voting rights .
These were already in place before New York-listed Alibaba raised $ 13 billion selling shares in Hong Kong late last year .
But exceptions have already been made .
In October , China allowed companies with dual-class shares to join the connect , giving investors in the mainland access to Hong Kong-listed technology companies Xiaomi Corp. and Meituan Dianping .
Rules can be changed when there is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , that was the expectation among investors here .
The notice on dual-class shares was posted by the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges in mid-October and took effect Oct. 28 .
Three days later , Alibaba was reported to be planning its secondary listing in Hong Kong the following month .
The shares started trading Nov. 26 .
Investors in Alibaba ’ s Hong Kong stock will have a right to feel short-changed if the shares lose steam as a result .
They dropped as much as 2.5 % after the Bloomberg News story @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changed .
Alibaba has rallied more than 20 % since its debut in Hong Kong , at least partly on anticipation that the stock will draw a wall of money from mainland Chinese investors who wouldn ’ t otherwise be able to buy .
The lack of support for Alibaba to join the stock connect is a severe blow to Hong Kong ’ s aspirations of marketing itself as the offshore listing venue of choice for Chinese technology companies , in an environment where the U.S. has become increasingly inhospitable and businesses are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Netease Inc. are among U.S.-listed Chinese enterprises that are said to be looking at listing in Hong Kong .
Bankers have talked of pitching other names including JD.com Inc. and Baidu Inc .
The prospect of acquiring an enthusiastic mainland investor base that would help to buoy valuations is a key selling point for those who might be tempted to decamp from a U.S. exchange .
If Alibaba — a marquee name with a $ 578 billion market capitalization — can ’ t get the nod , what ’ s the hope @ @ @ @ @ @ @ worrying for Hong Kong is what the reluctance may say about China ’ s support for the city , as it contemplates the hit to its own economy from the coronavirus epidemic .
HKEX , after all , is a competitor as well as a partner with the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges .
If Hong Kong becomes too attractive a venue for China ’ s leading companies , that may hold back development of the mainland ’ s markets .
In 2018 , Hong Kong relaxed its listing rules to admit unprofitable technology @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making the exchange even more alluring to Chinese hopefuls than the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets .
In turn , Shanghai introduced the tech-focused Star Board in July , a Chinese answer to the Nasdaq that accepts money-losing companies with weighted voting rights .
After a lively start , the board ’ s performance has been underwhelming .
It has drawn few big names and has thin turnover .
All may not be lost .
Smartphone maker Xiaomi had been public in Hong Kong for 15 months before it joined the connect , while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months .
HKEX and Alibaba will have to hope this is the slow arm of bureaucracy rather than the cold shoulder .


washingtonpost--2020-02-05--Analysis | Not Even a Virus Can Stop This President From Dreaming

But that ’ s not the full picture .
Even as the government diverts resources to contain the outbreak , with millions of people on lockdown , some factories are still humming .
President Xi Jinping hasn ’ t forgotten his Made in China 2025 dream .
Consider display-panel makers .
South Korea ’ s LG Display Co. said that while it has halted lower-tech LCD module lines at its Nanjing and Yantai plants until Feb. 9 , its facility in Guangzhou , which makes more advanced OLED panels for smartphones , was operating normally .
It will begin mass @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isn ’ t your ordinary factory .
With a monthly capacity of 60,000 sheets , ( 1 ) the Guangzhou site will account for almost half of LG Display ’ s OLED output .
The manufacturer ’ s decision last year to open a brand-new facility was a big win for Beijing , as other companies started shifting their supply chains out of China amid the trade war .
The local government will make sure LG manages to operate smoothly , virus or not .
Even in the area surrounding Wuhan , some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ NAND flash-memory supplier Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. must report to work as usual , though entries and exits are strictly monitored , according to industry reports .
Credit Suisse Group AG said the company ’ s plant has been “ operating throughout the past week ” in a research note this week .
Then consider Changxin Memory Technologies Inc. , another memory-chip maker near Wuhan .
It hasn ’ t been affected by the sharp slowdown in domestic transportation of goods because it holds a national special license that allows it to continue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a market-research company .
These chipmakers are the crown jewels of Xi ’ s Made in China 2025 blueprint .
Yangtze Memory is managed by Tsinghua Unigroup Co. , the business arm of prestigious Tsinghua University , the president ’ s alma mater .
Its early-stage NAND memory technology shows potential , and is only half a generation behind the global flash memory leaders .
It can plausibly narrow that gap in just a year or two .
Will Beijing allow an untimely virus to set its grand ambition back again ?
China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the past two years .
But if it can weather a trade war , surely it can ride out an epidemic , which many hope will subside by spring .
While factories that make toys or clothing could be closed for months , you can bet those with national strategic importance will stay up and running .
Fears of a major disruption in the global hardware supply chain are overblown .
Shuli Ren is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian markets .
She previously wrote on markets for Barron ’ s , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and is a CFA charterholder .


washingtonpost--2020-02-05--Analysis | What’s Being Done to Limit the Spread of the China Virus

Within China : Officials said they would track down people who left Wuhan , a city of 11 million , before the quarantine was imposed , as many migrant workers headed back to the countryside to celebrate the Lunar New Year with their families .
Officials said they would be registered , visited frequently by medical personnel and taken for treatment if symptoms developed .
Chinese news agency Xinhua reported that health officials in Beijing asked those returning to Wuhan from anywhere to stay at home for two weeks , record their temperature and seek treatment if they develop a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of testing kits and overworked hospital staff are straining the health care system , hampering efforts to accurately track how many people have the pathogen .
And there ’ s evidence that people may be contagious even when asymptomatic .
Elsewhere : Airports globally and border crossings with China have implemented monitoring systems including thermal scanners and questionnaires in an effort to catch cases early .
In the U.S. , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it would funnel all air traffic from China through certain airports , where passengers would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The drawback to this approach , however , is that it may miss people coming into the U.S. from places other than China who might have been infected during the journey .
The passengers are given cards with details about what to watch for .
Social media and traditional news outlets have also spread the word .
The first two patients identified in the U.S. sought medical attention on their own accord because they were concerned that they might be infected , showing that awareness levels are high .
When a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put in isolation , often in a hospital , to prevent him or her from spreading the germs .
A medical worker takes a thorough history , trying to identify every person who has been within 6 feet ( about 2 meters ) of the patient since symptoms emerged .
According to the WHO , Chinese authorities place close contacts ( family members and others living in the patient ’ s home , co-workers , possible care-givers and others ) under medical observation , which may include isolation at home with regular temperature @ @ @ @ @ @ @ after 14 days , the contacts are released , the WHO said .
Other potential contacts could be neighbors , fellow passengers on public transportation , people who attended the same social events , shopped or visited doctors at the same time .
Breaking the chain of transmission is what officials believe will ultimately curtail the outbreak and prevent a pandemic , which is an epidemic of global proportions .
Isolation is a tricky issue because it ’ s unclear how well it works or if it ’ s been put in place @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for isolation is when an infected person sheds the virus , essentially putting it out into the world .
Scientists believe the virus is spread primarily through droplets that could be emitted by an infected person ’ s cough and transferred to their hands or surfaces and objects .
There ’ s a theoretical risk that it could spread through fine aerosol particles and feces .
Some of the most vulnerable people are the health care workers caring for seriously ill patients ; 15 cases occurred among workers at one hospital in Wuhan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s possible people who are still incubating the virus and show no symptoms may spread it .
One apparent case in Germany was undermined later by new evidence , but there have been other reports in China , including that of a seemingly healthy 10-year-old boy who apparently passed it to family members .
Even if there are rare instances of asymptomatic transmission , however , it ’ s unlikely to become a major factor in the spread , Anthony Fauci , director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The U.S. declared a public health emergency and said starting Feb. 2 it would bar entry to most foreign nationals who have been in China within two weeks prior to their arrival to the U.S. Singapore , the Philippines and New Zealand were among the other countries denying entry to non-citizens who had been in China , and many airlines have suspended flights ( live tracker ) .
Hong Kong , the international financial center that functions with some autonomy from China , announced restrictions as well for visitors from the mainland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ others warned against travel to China and were helping their citizens in Wuhan get out .
Inside China : The government has imposed a quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in the region , a travel ban covering in excess of 50 million people .
The move came ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday period , when an estimated 3 billion trips are made , about 15 million in Wuhan alone .
The mayor estimated about 5 million residents left before the Jan. 23 lockdown , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city of 9 million people , became the first city outside central Hubei province to impose quarantine measures , telling families that only one person will be allowed out of the house every two days to shop for necessities .
Wenzhou is in Zhejiang province , which had the highest number of confirmed cases outside Hubei .
Elsewhere : The CDC said that it was putting 195 Americans who had been repatriated from the outbreak ’ s center under federal quarantine at an Air Force base in California , the first such effort @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had been in Hubei province during the two weeks before their arrival would also be subject to quarantine .
Citizens returning from elsewhere in China will be subject to screening , and are being asked to stay at home for two weeks while being monitored .
Some health officials warned that in modern times , quarantines have yielded limited results .
Toronto ’ s use of quarantine wasn ’ t effective in slowing the SARS epidemic of 2002-2004 there , Richard Schabas , a former public-health physician who was Ontario ’ s chief @ @ @ @ @ @ @ concluded in a study in 2004 .
An impoverished neighborhood in Liberia quarantined during an Ebola outbreak in 2014 responded with violent riots .
China sequenced the virus ’ s genome within days of detecting the outbreak and on Jan. 10 posted the information to public databases widely used by researchers .
That contrasts with the months of delay seen with its response to the 2002 outbreak of SARS .
Speedy access to the new virus ’ s genetic fingerprint allowed health officials in Japan and Thailand to quickly confirm cases that had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S. , France and other countries .
Still , the process isn ’ t easy .
Medical staff must take swabs from the nose and throat of potentially infected patients , along with blood samples , and send them to laboratories that are equipped to do genetic sequencing .
While the work can take four to six hours , shipping the swabs to the laboratory can take much longer .
Chinese health officials approved two new kits on Jan. 28 , in addition to the existing four types , according to Xinhua @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kits can give results in about 30 minutes , according to Technology Daily .
In the U.S. , the only facility currently conducting the work is at the CDC in Atlanta .
Researchers are working to develop a faster process that can be done closer to the patient ’ s bedside .
Antiviral drugs that have shown signs of helping control other types of coronaviruses , such as remdesivir and lopinavir/ritonavir , are being examined to see if they offer any help for those infected with 2019-nCoV .
Pharmaceutical companies including Moderna Inc. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work on a potential vaccine .
Health officials say a version might be available for the first stages of human testing in as little as three months .
But developing an effective vaccine generally takes years .


washingtonpost--2020-02-05--Analysis | China’s Drug Patent Grab Makes Coronavirus Scary for Pharma

If the patent is granted , it will confirm long-standing drugmaker fears about China ’ s commitment to IP protection , raising concern about the industry ’ s future in a crucial market .
It also could further erode the already weak incentives for pharma to invest in drugs to combat emerging infectious diseases .
The risks of seizing the patent may outweigh any benefit .
Gilead ’ s drug was unsuccessfully developed to treat Ebola but has shown promise in lab settings against diseases similar to the new coronavirus , which first emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , infecting thousands and claiming hundreds of lives .
Chinese researchers want to patent remdesivir specifically as a possible coronavirus treatment .
Given the devastating impact of the disease in Wuhan , it ’ s understandable why researchers would think about taking this step .
For Gilead , it ’ s not the worst-case scenario — that would be a full-on compulsory license where a country fully seizes drug rights in an emergency .
But the company could see any potential return on the medication curtailed if China starts manufacturing it .
China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ huge opportunity for drugmakers .
Many are investing heavily in the region despite previous data integrity and sales scandals .
Leadership has recently demonstrated a greater commitment to IP rights in its initial trade deal with the U.S. , but granting this patent could erode trust in the government and scare off foreign drugmakers .
The consequences wouldn ’ t be limited to declining corporate confidence in China , even if this is a one-time emergency event .
The world dramatically under-invests in drugs to combat infectious diseases , and a move like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t help .
Developing such medicines isn ’ t very profitable , compared to drugs for rare diseases and cancer .
That ’ s especially true when it comes to emerging viruses , in spite of the obvious risk .
Outbreaks are more common in developing countries , which limits pricing power .
By the time a company has managed to get approval for any given drug , often a years-long process , there ’ s a good chance that the outbreak will be over .
Seizing the rights to treatments dents drugmakers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infectious-disease drugs , let alone spend heavily to develop and maintain the ability to respond rapidly to outbreaks and scale up manufacturing .
Without the promise of some kind of return , investment is going to dry up .
I ’ m not a rah-rah pharma guy .
The industry often abuses the patent system , especially in the U.S. , in order to profit for years off of old drugs to the detriment of patients and the health-care system .
Its pricing practices are frequently unconscionable .
This isn ’ t one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arguably one of the rare cases where the ability of drugmakers to profit needs to be boosted rather than crimped .


washingtonpost--2020-02-04--China May Ease Shadow-Bank Crackdown to Bolster Slowing Economy

“ The Chinese government would only push for deleveraging on sunny days , not now , ” said Ryan Lam , head of research at Shanghai Commercial Bank Ltd. in Hong Kong .
“ Debt isn ’ t a huge problem for them at the moment , so they would rather focus on dealing with the imminent problems.
” Regulators over the weekend agreed to extend a grace period for banks struggling to meet a deadline on the most stringent shadow banking curbs .
The central bank has turned on the spigots to calm concerns , and banks are being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and extend repayment schedules in stricken areas .
At risk is China ’ s economic growth target , with the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc and UBS Group AG warning of a sharp slowdown .
During the boom years , shadow banking -- often loans masquerading as investment products -- were the lifeline of many small enterprises .
The crackdown forced a record surge in bad loans , which now looks set to worsen with two-thirds of the economy under lock down .
Even before the deadly outbreak , signs were emerging @ @ @ @ @ @ @ foot off the neck of the shadow banking sector .
What follows are five charts on how the crackdown had looked to be losing steam , the loopholes regulators have closed , as well as the casualties of the campaign .
Shadow banking assets declined by 20 % since the start of 2018 to about 50 % of gross domestic product after a period of breakneck growth , according to Fitch Ratings .
The debt rating firm estimates China had shed 11.5 trillion yuan ( $ 1.7 trillion ) in shadow loans since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even as the pace of decline started to flatten out in the second half last year .
Two key components of shadow banking include high-yield asset management products sold to the public and a web of leveraged lending between financial institutions .
The outstanding value of wealth management products , most of which offered guaranteed returns , has barely increased since 2017 .
Products assuring returns were meant to stop by December , but the regulator has now allowed an extension , giving banks more time to transition customers .
Regulators have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high-yielding deposits , banks initially boosted their issuance of structured deposits , many of them with embedded options .
These derivative features allowed issuers to advertise higher yields , which were later subsidized by banks , bypassing rules prohibiting guaranteed returns .
With shadow financing squeezed , attracting real deposits has become more important .
That in turn puts upward pressure on money-market rates , increasing the strain on borrowers .
China ’ s credit markets are already sending distress signals .
Defaults hit records in 2018 and 2019 as borrowers struggled to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ directed its biggest banks to pick up the slack and lend more to small companies , with those affected by the coronavirus the target of the most recent measures .
State-owned enterprises have also been asked to help with equity and debt financing .
Among the most scrutinized when it comes to financial risk are China ’ s thousands of online lenders , which attracted upwards of 50 million investors at its peak , more than the populations of New York state and Texas combined .
Now , the industry is facing existential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to exit the business .
That is one area unlikely to enjoy any meaningful recovery .
“ Deleveraging may be put on the backburner if the health outbreak worsens , ” S & P analysts led by Ming Tan wrote in a note this week .
A widening gap between economic growth and credit expansion “ could have longer-term consequences on financial stability if it isn ’ t carefully managed .
”


washingtonpost--2020-02-05--Analysis | The Trouble With AirAsia’s Charismatic Founder

Like his mentor Richard Branson , Fernandes has made his identity synonymous with that of his company .
The former music executive appeared at events in a branded baseball cap and vigorously defended the sprawling group on social media before he quit both Facebook and Twitter over the past year .
It ’ s often been hard to tell where Fernandes ends and AirAsia begins .
That issue is at the heart of the current allegations .
European prosecutors and Airbus say the aircraft manufacturer agreed to pay $ 50 million to sponsor a sports team — the Caterham Formula @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jointly by Fernandes and Meranun — in return for AirAsia purchasing 180 aircraft .
AirAsia , for its part , says that Airbus had its own branding reasons for sponsoring Caterham , while there was a sound commercial logic in purchasing A330s from Airbus .
It ’ s not the first time AirAsia has been named in connection with such activities .
In a 2017 case brought by the U.K. ’ s Serious Fraud Office , Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc admitted to providing $ 3.2 million worth of credits to an AirAsia executive in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the expectation they would be used to pay for maintenance of a private jet owned with other executives .
AirAsia has previously said there was nothing improper in the arrangement and that relevant information was disclosed in investor materials .
As Branson and Fernandes himself have demonstrated , consumer businesses led by flamboyant executives with interests beyond spreadsheets and boardrooms can often receive valuable free publicity .
The problem comes in knowing where to draw the line between personal interests and those of the company .
There ’ s certainly been no shortage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ associated with Fernandes and Meranun .
AirAsia ’ s annual reports disclose multiple examples : 20 million ringgit ( $ 4.9 million ) paid to Caterhamjet Global for the lease of a Bombardier Inc. private jet like the one mentioned in the Rolls-Royce case , and another 3 million ringgit to Tune Group to crew the plane in 2016 .
In multiple years , Tune Insurance Malaysia Bhd .
has provided insurance for AirAsia passengers outbound from Malaysia , with commission fees returning to AirAsia itself .
The question is whether this activity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statements on the Airbus and Rolls-Royce cases , AirAsia makes the point that all such deals were agreed by the board and disclosed in financial statements .
In that sense , it ’ s up to directors and shareholders to decide if anything was amiss , and to censure management if they don ’ t like it .
Of the four independent directors on AirAsia ’ s seven-person board , one of them , Stuart Dean , is a retired long-time executive for General Electric Co. , a major provider of aircraft engines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Safran SA .
Given the issues that the Airbus and Rolls-Royce cases have raised around AirAsia ’ s relationships with its other suppliers , adding another independent director with less of an aerospace background might provide more reassurance to smaller shareholders .
Another board member , Noor Neelofa binti Mohd Noor , popularly known as Lofa , is a model , fashion entrepreneur and Instagram influencer .
Her presence brings some welcome gender balance to the otherwise all-male board , but the 30-year-old has a short resume for someone expected to bring @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into line .
Even before the Airbus settlement , this wasn ’ t likely to be an easy year for AirAsia .
Quite apart from the impact of coronavirus on airlines in Asia , it ’ s dealing with a switch in accounting rules that ’ s turning its long-standing practice of making money leasing aircraft to group affiliates from a profit center to a money loser .
Of its six regional carriers , only the Indonesian one currently has ordinary revenues sufficient to cover its costs .
For nearly two decades now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to making sure that every instrument in this sprawling orchestra plays in tune .
Shareholders may be about to find out how the music sounds when they ’ re no longer holding the baton .


washingtonpost--2020-02-05--Analysis | What You Need to Know About China’s Virus Outbreak

It has been described as “ insidious ” because a large portion of infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , potentially spreading it to others .
In just two months , the number of confirmed cases surpassed the 8,096 SARS cases recorded in that entire epidemic , which ran more than a year .
Some disease modeling experts project there are likely 75,000 or more actual cases , as accurate counts from overwhelmed areas -- especially Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province -- are difficult to come by , partly due to a shortage of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apparent mortality rate was about 2 % , lower than SARS , but such numbers are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak .
While many patients have required intensive care , it ’ s likely the virus has caused only mild or no symptoms in many other people .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
There ’ s growing recognition of the role of coronaviruses in severe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Organization says that new ones emerge periodically around the globe , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
They tend to morph and mutate , which means the level of risk they pose can change the longer they circulate in a humans .
It ’ s similar in its genetic makeup to the SARS virus but “ appears clinically milder ” in terms of severity and fatality rate .
With SARS , about 9 % of reported cases died .
A related virus , known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spreading since 2012 , has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded .
By contrast , an estimated 50 million people died in the 1918 influenza pandemic that had a case-fatality ratio of less than 5 % , but infected up to a third of the world ’ s population .
Most likely by coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that could be emitted by an infected person ’ s cough and transferred to their hands or surfaces and objects .
There ’ s a theoretical risk that it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ feces .
People who are still incubating the virus and show no symptoms may spread it .
One apparent case in Germany was undermined later by new evidence , but there have been other reports in China , including that of a seemingly healthy 10-year-old boy who apparently passed it to family members .
Even if there are rare instances of asymptomatic transmission , however , it ’ s unlikely to become a major factor in the spread , Anthony Fauci , director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 28 .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of new cases a person who is infected is likely to generate .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
The preliminary reproduction number of 2019-nCoV is 1.4 to 2.5 , according to the WHO , meaning that every case could infect 1.4 to 2.5 people .
( For comparison ’ s sake , the reproduction number of SARS was 2.76 in Beijing and 3.01 in Guangzhou .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ work measuring the spread of emerging infectious diseases , and his colleagues at Imperial College London estimated the number for 2019-nCoV to be 2.6 , making it similar to SARS and more infectious than flu .
If that ’ s correct , controlling the outbreak would require preventing at least 60 % of cases from spreading to another person .
Another group from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing estimated the number to be 4.08 .
Infections appear to cause a mild illness in children , adolescents and younger adults , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Frequently reported early signs are fever , dry cough and tiredness -- but not the sneezing and runny nose typical of a cold .
Studies suggest the virus invades cells in the lower respiratory tract and migrates from there to the lungs , causing difficulty breathing and the inflammation and congestion associated with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a potentially fatal complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Septic shock , respiratory failure and the failure of other organs have also been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been in patients with underlying illnesses such as cardiovascular disease .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold , but about 13 of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
Maria Van Kerkhove , head of the Outbreak Investigation Task Force at the Institut Pasteur and an adviser to the WHO , said animal tests at the market came back negative , while some environmental @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been sequenced , and these results in conjunction with other reports show that 2019-nCoV is 75 % to 80 % identical to SARS-CoV and even more closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
There is always concern when a new pathogen emerges in people because they typically lack immunity to it and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before , represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , like SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
The U.S. State Department has advised people not to travel to China and said those already in the country should consider leaving .
Hong Kong , the international financial center that functions with some autonomy from China , announced its own travel restrictions from the mainland .
The U.S. , Australia , India and other countries were denying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China in an attempt to “ shut down ” the virus ’ s spread , although the WHO has called such measures unnecessary .
Relatively few cases have been reported outside China .
But in Hubei , thousands of people have been hospitalized in isolation wards and hundreds are being treated in intensive care units , creating what officials there have described as an “ extreme , severe and abrupt public health crisis.
” Richard Horton , editor of The Lancet medical journal , said the outbreak could strain the capacity of health @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first 41 hospitalized patients in China found 13 ( 32 % ) needed intensive care ; four required invasive mechanical ventilation and two were put on a heart-lung bypass machine in a last-ditch effort to keep them alive .
Six died .
The WHO has declared the outbreak a global health emergency , a designation that can help mobilize international responses , provide more resources and focus government attention .
China ’ s government imposed a quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in the region , a travel ban @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Authorities dispatched medical personnel from the military to help out at hospitals -- and even built new ones from the ground up in days .
Patients were isolated to prevent any spread .
Health officials are looking for , screening and monitoring people the patients had contact with .
School holidays have been extended and work-from-home orders issued .
Anyone caught spreading misinformation was subject to criminal charges in some Asian countries .
Doctors in China have started using a combination of AbbVie Inc. ’ s HIV drugs ritonavir and lopinavir at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whether the combination , sold under the brand name Kaletra , is more effective in treating patients than an antiviral medicine known as interferon-alpha 2b .
Gilead Sciences Inc. is shipping doses of its experimental drug , remdesivir , to China and ramping up production in case clinical trials work .
China also has taken steps in case it needs to manufacture its own supply .
Other medications , including some on the market for fighting HIV and preventing organ rejection , have shown promise in lab studies .
Moderna Inc. and Novavax @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a potential vaccine .
Health officials say a version might be available for the first stages of human testing in as little as three months .
But developing an effective vaccine generally takes years .
That outbreak , which began in late 2002 in Guangdong province , is thought to have spread indirectly from bats to humans via masked palm civets and other exotic creatures in live-animal markets .
The WHO issued a global health alert in March 2003 and didn ’ t declare the outbreak contained until that July .
China ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were heavily hit as people stayed home ; domestic consumption fell sharply , as did real estate prices and financial markets .
The epidemic subtracted an estimated 0.8 percentage point from gross domestic product growth in China in 2003 , according to a China Daily report that cited a National Bureau of Statistics official .
A 2003 academic study estimated the global economic cost at close to $ 40 billion or more .
Economists have been cutting their growth forecasts for China for 2020 .


washingtonpost--2020-02-05--Analysis | Why Reports of Drugs for Coronavirus Are Premature

Coronaviruses , named for their crown-like appearance under a microscope , are a large family of pathogens responsible for diseases that range in severity from the common cold to severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS .
The variant that emerged in Wuhan , China , however , had never been seen in humans before December 2019 , so there was no call for drugs or vaccines until it began spreading around China and the world .
When faced with a new , serious disease causing fatal illness in hundreds of patients , doctors often try unproven treatments that they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ This has been the case with Gilead Sciences Inc. ’ s remdesivir , an experimental antiviral drug , and AbbVie Inc. ’ s Kaletra , an HIV treatment that combines two drugs .
When doctors note positive results , they often try to make them public so that others can try the same approach , and perhaps save lives .
Not necessarily .
Patients often recover from viral illness on their own , or improve because of other forms of supportive care such as rest and hydration .
Some really sick patients might @ @ @ @ @ @ @ effective it is .
That requires carefully structured and monitored tests known as clinical trials .
Typically , these studies are designed to show that patients who get the drug do better than those who don ’ t , and that the results aren ’ t a product of chance .
The trials try to subtract all the other influences and factors that might disguise the true effectiveness of the drug .
It depends .
Drugs that are already approved against one infection and shown to be safe can be tested for effectiveness @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Experimental drugs may take longer to test , as they have to go through initial studies to evaluate whether they are safe .
Other factors that can slow the process include the supply of drug candidates and the availability of patients to test them in .
The trials also have to be approved by ethics watchdogs and drug regulators .
According to a 2017 review , the median time for regulators to approve a new drug in 2015 was 333 days in the U.S. , 422 days in Europe , and 639 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expedited its process .
Some of the world ’ s biggest companies are working on vaccines against the novel coronavirus , and the British giant GlaxoSmithKline said one could be tested and ready to use within 18 months if all goes well .
Take that with a grain of salt , however .
The 2003 outbreak of SARS provoked at least as much fear and disruption as 2019-nCoV has , and there still isn ’ t a vaccine .
Because SARS is also caused by a coronavirus , having a vaccine against it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ head start .
When drugs are deemed to fill an immediate need , regulators can speed them through the approval process using a number of paths .
A fast-track designation facilitates communication between drugmakers and regulators .
A priority review sets an early target for regulators to make a decision on a drug .


washingtonpost--2020-05-07--Analysis | There Really Is No Place Like Home in Covid-19 Hong Kong

Real estate in the territory is running at two speeds — a battered retail and office sector with fortunes tied to the broader economy that contracted 8.9 % in the first quarter co-existing with a resilient housing market that seems impervious to the disaster around it .
No commercial property transactions in the three months that opened 2020 involved a buyer from mainland China , the first time that ’ s happened since 2009 , according to CBRE Group Inc. , which tracks deals over HK $ 77 million ( $ 10 million ) .
It ’ s a stark @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when Chinese investors were snapping up offices and retail space for eye-popping prices .
But as China moves off its virus sudden stop and Hong Kong cautiously opens up , there ’ s still little good news for owners of commercial real estate .
Office vacancy rates for grade A properties are hitting 7.3 % , not much off the 8.2 % high in June 2009 during the global financial crisis .
Prices are struggling , slumping to HK $ 23,385 per square foot in the first quarter , according to Colliers .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ from a peak in September 2018 , when mainland banks and insurers still saw Hong Kong as the primary launchpad to expand globally .
Capital controls on Chinese firms like HNA Group Co. that binged on debt to acquire assets globally , followed by the U.S.-China trade war and last year ’ s protests , put an end to much of that .
Capital values for retail have been hit even harder than offices , down 14 % to HK $ 33,964 per square foot from HK $ 39,478 at the end of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % under highs of HK $ 46,344 per square foot in March 2014 , when the city was in the midst of a tourist boom .
With virus restrictions easing , there are glimmers of hope for the city ’ s shops .
Yet border controls with mainland China remain in place and the travel industry is cratering worldwide ; only a brave forecaster would say that the heady days of around 65 million visitors chalked up in 2018 will soon return .
Pricking this bubble , even if anyone was trying , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ jobs .
The 4.2 % first-quarter jobless rate is bound to go higher .
But it will be more reflective of restaurant and hotel employees than those in finance or the middle class who are more likely to buy their dwellings .
The government ’ s plan to dole out “ helicopter money ” to Hong Kongers and direct bailout funds to hard-pressed companies that keep their workers seems to be stopping mass unemployment .
The real reason that Hong Kong home prices can ’ t seem to crash is the U.S. Federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic ups and downs , home prices have risen a whopping 210 % since the end of 2008 , when the U.S. began cheapening money to cope with the global financial crisis .
Because the Hong Kong currency is tied to the U.S. dollar , the city has to mirror Fed moves.Now , with Fed rates close to zero , and looking to stay that way , Hong Kong housing has an all-new allure for investors who sat on the sidelines through the trade war and protests .
The one-month interbank rate , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is at its lowest since April 2018 , and well under the 5 % of 2007 .
Few homeowners are stressed .
The loan-to-value ratio of mortgages is just 56 % , the highest since late 2014 , but hardly a picture of households scrambling to pay banks .
In a world where liquidity has made prices irrational and in a market with insufficient supply , it ’ s hard to see Hong Kong housing prices losing their fizz just because the economy tanks .
At least on this investment , there ’ @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-05-12--New York City to Limit Company Fees for Online Food Delivery

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washingtonpost--2020-05-12--Analysis | OPEC’s Next Domino to Fall Could Be Nigeria

Late last month , the International Monetary Fund approved $ 3.4 billion of emergency funding for Nigeria .
Official figures suggest the spread of Covid-19 there has been low .
But as analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations point out , only about 12,000 Nigerians out of a population of more than 200 million had been tested as of two weeks ago .
Last month , the disease claimed Abba Kyari , the powerful chief of staff to President Muhammadu Buhari , a political bombshell .
Meanwhile , there is no denying the pandemic ’ s impact on oil @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Nigeria ’ s economy ( more on that figure below ) .
While Nigeria has supplied more secretary generals of OPEC than any other country — including the current one — it is also among the group ’ s weakest members .
Nigeria has ranked lowest within OPEC in terms of oil export revenue per capita virtually every year this century .
( 1 ) As Nigeria ’ s population swelled , oil production dwindled .
Helima Croft , a former CIA analyst who now heads global commodity strategy at RBC Capital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 9/11 attacks .
Nigeria , having recently transitioned out of military rule , was regarded as a potential “ fulcrum of U.S. energy policy , ” supplying more barrels from outside the Middle East .
Back then , it produced more than two million barrels a day , of which about 40 % was shipped to the U.S. , and Croft remembers projections at the time for production to double .
“ Nigeria ’ s challenge , that pre-dates Covid by at least a decade , is lack of investment in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Matthew Page , an associate fellow at Chatham House , a London-based think tank , and former U.S. intelligence expert on Nigeria .
Unrest in the Niger Delta since the 1990s intensified after 2003 with attacks directed increasingly at oil infrastructure .
This , combined with persistent corruption , deterred foreign oil companies ( 2 ) .
By the mid-2010s , with shale oil starting to transform the Atlantic oil market , there was even less reason to invest in Nigerian barrels .
President George W. Bush was the last U.S. president to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ no longer viewed in Washington as critical ; President Donald Trump slapped immigration restrictions on Nigeria in February .
The Covid-19 crisis , coming amid mounting expectations of peak oil demand anyway , means even less incentive for foreign oil companies to deploy scarce dollars there .
Oil sits at the nexus of Nigeria ’ s politics , economy and security .
Even though it accounts for only about one-tenth of GDP , it generates more than half of government revenue .
And government revenue can also be thought of as a form @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is Nigeria : more than 200 million people split among more than 300 ethnic groups ( 3 ) , encompassing Islam and Christianity and spread across 36 states .
While the economy is relatively diversified , many Nigerians rely on subsistence farming or work for the civil service .
Nigeria is estimated to account for one in seven of the world ’ s very poorest people .
( 4 ) Outside of Lagos , large parts of the country rely heavily on oil-funded allocations from central government .
Peace deals with militant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the government funds security forces fighting Boko Haram ’ s jihadists in the northeast of the country .
“ Where this becomes problematic , in terms of socio-political dynamics , is that oil money is one way in which Nigeria smooths over its poor governance and its lack of services , ” says Judd Devermont , who directs the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies , a Washington-based think tank .
“ Nigeria ’ s always been very effective at managing one or two crises at a time , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ current slate of issues : the oil crash , Covid-19 , Boko Haram , clashes between farmers and herders in Nigeria ’ s middle belt , an uptick in unrest in the northwest .
Despite its fault lines and weaknesses , Nigeria has endured multiple crises in the past .
What ’ s different this time is the sheer multiplicity of problems against a backdrop of weak oil prices — and at a time when the medium and long-term health of the oil market is already in question .
In a forthcoming essay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a grim set of cascading effects whereby the government , with all of $ 72 million in its rainy-day fund , can ’ t cut checks to state governments , which in turn can ’ t pay the obligations they ’ ve built up on the back of oil money .
And it ’ s all too easy to imagine a vicious circle developing whereby the government struggles to pay off militants in the Delta region , who then resort to the old tactic of disrupting oil supply , thereby exacerbating the lack @ @ @ @ @ @ @ situation , although it reflects the country ’ s unique characteristics , also shares something in common with other petro-states .
It ’ s an inherently fragile system — beset by corruption , regular bouts of violence , economic mismanagement and weak institutions — that has been held together with oil rents .
At the other end of the scale , Saudi Arabia has a far healthier oil industry ; a more cohesive state ; a smaller , wealthier population ; and a giant rainy-day fund .
Yet it also faces potentially existential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crisis for Nigeria isn ’ t so much that oil prices are low ; rather that it is hardwired for much higher prices .
The oil market ’ s slow-burning crisis is that so much of its supply depends on such countries .


washingtonpost--2020-05-12--Analysis | Why Hindu Nationalism Keeps Gaining Ground in India

The Citizenship Amendment Act was passed by the BJP-dominated parliament in December .
It prioritizes citizenship for undocumented Hindus , Sikhs , Buddhists , Jains , Parsis and Christians from the neighboring Muslim-majority countries of Pakistan , Bangladesh and Afghanistan , describing them as persecuted minorities .
Muslims are excluded from this list .
It ’ s the first law since India gained independence to explicitly discriminate against Muslims , and is aimed mainly at those who came across the border during the 1971 conflict that led to the creation of Bangladesh .
Protests initially began in Assam state , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ another influx of migrants .
Elsewhere , including the capital New Delhi , opposition centered on fears the law went against India ’ s secular nature .
Sit-ins were organized on college campuses and by Muslim women in northern India .
In December , Modi called for peace — two days after telling a rally that those protesting the law could be identified by their clothes , a reference to Islamic attire .
The country ’ s top court agreed to examine the law but declined to suspend it while the case proceeded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two dozen people died when Hindu mobs vandalized mosques and attacked Muslim-majority neighborhoods in Delhi — all during a state visit by U.S. President Donald Trump .
Protest sites were cleared in March as part of lockdown measures — the world ’ s largest — put in place to fight the coronavirus .
At the same time , reports of hundreds of infections linked to an Islamic gathering in Delhi sparked another spree of anti-Muslim attacks .
Conflicts between Hindu and Muslims go back centuries , and were aggravated by the British colonial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” leading to the 1947 partition of the Indian subcontinent into mostly Hindu India and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan .
Mahatma Gandhi and the Congress Party , which led India to independence , advocated religious pluralism , but some Hindus disagreed .
Gandhi was assassinated in 1948 by a former member of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh , or National Volunteer Corps , a secretive , all-male society founded in 1925 that promotes India foremost as a Hindu nation .
Modi joined the RSS as a teenager , then shifted to the BJP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as a political organizer .
He moved rapidly through the party hierarchy in his home state of Gujarat and became the state ’ s chief minister in 2001 .
The following year the state saw religious riots that left more than 1,000 people , mostly Muslim , dead .
After 13 years leading Gujarat , Modi turned to national politics , taking on a long-dominant Congress party that had mismanaged the economy and was increasingly viewed as corrupt and ineffective .
After his extraordinary win in 2014 , he began to focus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while turning a blind eye to increasingly bolder Hindu groups .
He and his closest aide , Amit Shah , pursued a strategy of uniting disparate voters by stressing a Hindu identity instead of one divided by castes -- the idea being that if you could unite all the caste-based parties , you could create a new majority that rules India for decades to come .
His even bigger re-election victory in 2019 showed that identity issues prevailed over economic ones , giving him space to push further with such initiatives , including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meanwhile , has sought to limit media coverage of the violence .
Polls show Modi ’ s support remaining rock solid , despite the social upheaval and economic pain from measures taken to fight the pandemic .
• After Modi ’ s re-election , the government scrapped seven decades of autonomy for the contested region of Kashmir , the only part of India with a Muslim majority .
Modi has repeatedly said his government wants to bring Kashmir , which Pakistan also claims , closer to the rest of India and improve economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ introduced in Assam threatens to render stateless close to 2 million people , mainly Muslims , who have lived there for generations and yet do not have enough paperwork to prove citizenship .
Shah , who became India ’ s home minister in 2019 , wants to extend the registry nationwide , although that ’ s been delayed indefinitely as the government fights the coronavirus .
• Hindu nationalists also are pushing to build a temple in Ayodhya on the site of a mosque destroyed by Hindu activists in 1992 , an event @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and remains sensitive for Muslims .
Many Hindus believe the warrior god Ram was born there .
The nation ’ s highest court in November gave Hindus control over the site .
Less and less .
In 2014 , only 4 % of the members of the lower house were Muslim , compared with 9 % in 1980 , even as the Muslim share of the population rose to 14 % from 11 % in the same period .
The BJP is the only major political party with no Muslim members of Parliament @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , saying it doesn ’ t revoke anyone ’ s citizenship but is aimed at helping those specified religious groups facing persecution .
Regarding the planned national registry , the government has said it ’ s “ not about any religion at all ” and will be implemented in a way so as not to harass or endanger any citizen .
That the rise of religious identity politics has shifted focus from fundamental problems such as malnutrition , poor education , lack of sanitation and rising income inequality .
Economic growth was slowing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is now bracing for its first recession in three decades .
Billionaire Rahul Bajaj in December provided a rare display of a corporate leader publicly expressing reservations about the government .
Some outside India have chimed in , including Microsoft Corp. Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella and Silicon Valley venture capitalist Vinod Khosla .
And Freedom House , a U.S.-based advocacy group , said that among the world ’ s major democracies , India suffered the steepest declines in civil and political liberties last year .


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Analysis | Why a Texas Oil Regulator Could Play the Role of OPEC

Despite its name , the three-member commission no longer oversees the state ’ s rail system .
It was established in the 1890s to regulate private railroads , terminals , wharfs and express companies .
That mandate grew to include oil and gas in 1919 .
Its oversight of railroads was gradually transferred elsewhere within state government , with the Texas Department of Transportation taking the last of the rail functions in 2005 .
Today the commission has a reputation for being a lenient regulator of the state ’ s oil and gas industry , which raked in $ 138 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the commission to drill and operate wells .
Ryan Sitton , one of the three commissioners , wrote in a Bloomberg Opinion column that the agency could order production limits for Texas producers , something last done in 1973 .
“ In theory , Texas could cut production by 10 % , and if Saudi Arabia is willing to cut production by 10 % from its pre-pandemic levels and Russia is willing to do the same , it would return the market to pre-crisis levels ( and only somewhat oversupplied ) , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ column , Sitton has said that he , like his fellow commissioners , has reservations over mandating cuts and is merely in favor of considering it .
Global crude prices are getting hit as the world locks down in an effort to combat the coronavirus pandemic .
West Texas Intermediate crude futures , the U.S. benchmark , settled in negative territory on April 20 for the first time in history .
Much of the collapse can be chalked up to the expiration of that particular contract , with holders unloading to avoid having @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the trading window .
But it ’ s also a reflection of rapidly filling crude storage that ’ s leaving producers with nowhere to put their oil .
Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Pioneer Energy Inc. have been the most vocal proponents of production caps , while majors including Exxon Mobil Corp. and other large independents have said they ’ re opposed to such measures .
In the early 1930s , a coalition of industry members , scientists and public officials advocated for the state to regulate production in order to stabilize @ @ @ @ @ @ @ East Texas .
The commission ultimately won the authority to “ prorate ” output -- meaning it can set the rate at which every oil well in Texas produces .
In its wielding of this power , the Texas commission served as a model for OPEC .
Texas voters elect them to staggered six-year terms .
The next election -- for Sitton ’ s seat -- is this November .
Sitton himself won ’ t be on the ballot : In a major upset , he lost the Republican primary election on March @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and chief executive of an oilfield service company .
Two Dallas lawyers , Chrysta Castañeda and Roberto Alonzo , will compete in a May runoff for the Democratic nomination to challenge Wright .
No Democrat has won election to the commission in more than 25 years .
The two Democratic candidates say the commission should be tougher in regulating the oil and gas industry , particularly when it comes to flaring .
It ’ s the process by which oil producers burn off unwanted natural gas that comes up with their crude .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ environmentally friendly way to get rid of excess gas they can ’ t sell .
Environmentalists say regulators in states including Texas and North Dakota should be tougher on a practice that harms air quality and contributes to climate change .
The commission , which has never denied a flaring permit , has faced criticism even from some industry members for its lax policy on the issue .


washingtonpost--2020-04-26--Analysis | China’s Bank Bailouts Are Even Scarier Than They Look

In the latest string of rescues , Beijing is stepping in to back Hong Kong-listed Bank of Gansu Co. , which in addition to deteriorating finances has also found itself on the hook for overdue debts of one of its shareholders .
All of that was made worse by a collapse in its share price earlier this month due to margin calls on stock pledged as collateral .
As part of a plan announced April 18 , state-backed equity holders will raise their stakes to own almost half of the bank , up from around 28 % .
The largest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to pay around 1.5 billion yuan ( $ 212 million ) to subscribe to 40 % of the new shares , raising its stake to 18.3 % .It ’ s an odd choice of rescuer .
Gansu Provincial Highway Aviation Tourism Investment Group Co. ’ s balance sheet is already stretched .
Its operating cash flow is insufficient to cover expenses and interest payments , according to S & P Global Ratings .
That the owners are struggling with liquidity issues is problematic .
Their equity is part of the bank ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Small and mid-size lenders are already facing a shortage of this and market confidence , with big banks unwilling to supply them with credit .
The rise of non-performing loans on the back of Covid-19 will erode their buffers further .
To help them cope , regulators recently loosened regulatory limits for NPL coverage ratios , the loss reserves that need to be set aside against bad loans , to release around 200 billion yuan of capital .
Isn ’ t that what got Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank Co. where it is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by Anbang Insurance Group Co. , ( 1 ) famed for its foreign-asset buying binge that included New York ’ s Waldorf Astoria .
At one point the lender , with around 40 subsidiaries across rural China , depended on its shareholder for 40 % of deposits while Anbang accounted for 80 % of related-party transactions that were short-term money market loans .
The bank also paid Anbang close to 5 % interest on its deposits and held its debt .
When the insurer was dismantled by regulators , Chengdu found its owners @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with uncertainty around major shareholders .
Then there was Baoshang Bank Co. , which last year became the first seized by the government in decades .
Its shareholder , Tomorrow Holding Co. , was caught up in Beijing ’ s corruption crosshairs , with founder Xiao Jianhua abducted from Hong Kong ’ s Four Seasons Hotel by Chinese agents in 2017 .
It gets even messier : Troubled Baoshang was a major shareholder of Bank of Gansu , with an 8.4 % stake at the end of 2019 .
The tight relationships @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the heart of the weakness : Who is funding who , or what ?
Related-party transactions flourish .
For instance , Bank of Gansu entered into a property-leasing arrangement with an asset management company majority-held by the highway operator and pays rent to it at commercial terms .
Small as that is , the money is still not being used productively.It also opens up the one topic regulators hate to think about : direct contagion .
Billions of yuan of assets are due from financial institutions to their peers in the interbank market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the form of deposits at other banks , from which lenders earn interest income of their own .
Jitters in money markets , where leverage is building up as policymakers cut rates , could compound these problems .
The need for outside capital and fresh equity couldn ’ t be stronger .
The only executable way to untangle these relationships and break the cycle is to bring in outsiders .
But who is an outsider in China ?
With Beijing looking to open its financial sector to foreigners , one way may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ control at the small-bank level , and incentivize the investment by agreeing to grant more access to millions of consumer deposits and borrowers .
Without commercial , strategic investors — rather than financially embattled ones with vested interests — it ’ s hard to see how Beijing ’ s reform plans make headway .
Brace yourself .
This frightening tale may go on for a while .


washingtonpost--2020-02-26--Analysis | What It Means If the Coronavirus Is Called a Pandemic

The word itself invokes alarm , and it could have repercussions depending on how it ’ s used and who uses it .
Broadly speaking , the current outbreak comes close to the technical criteria for a pandemic -- a situation where a new virus , against which most people do not have immunity , mushrooms across multiple continents .
That ’ s a bigger threat than an “ epidemic , ” which refers to a more constrained spread to a specific country or area .
The WHO has already raised its highest level of alarm about the novel virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stopped short of labeling the situation a pandemic at a Feb. 24 press conference , citing the lack of an “ uncontained global spread ” and “ large-scale severe disease or death.
” It ’ s not always black and white , but in general , the WHO will be looking at the geographical reach of cases , along with the deadliness of the disease and the effectiveness of containment efforts .
In the case of the novel coronavirus , which causes the pneumonia-like Covid-19 illness , it has seeped well beyond the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese city of Wuhan , with cases taking off in Iran , South Korea and Italy .
By Feb. 26 , it had spread to more than 30 countries .
There are aspects of the virus ’ s spread and transmission that are still not clear .
These factors make it difficult to come up with a trigger point for pandemic conditions to be met .
Questions that still linger over the nature of the virus underscore the WHO ’ s hesitation in calling the coronavirus a pandemic just yet , especially while @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stopped transmission in some countries .
If the WHO begins to talk about the coronavirus as a pandemic , it could spur more countries to roll out higher-level , emergency-grade response plans at local and state levels .
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , for example , said it has prepared a range of measures the government could take if the outbreak spreads widely in the U.S. One major tool is what ’ s known as social distancing -- finding ways to limit personal interactions where the virus could transmit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rearranging desks so that they are further apart .
Businesses could encourage telecommuting or use videoconferencing to replace in-person meetings , while public gatherings could be canceled .
Still , the way the WHO talks about the virus isn ’ t any sort of legal designation , and precautions are already being deployed in many countries , including a massive quarantine in China .
The new coronavirus can cause Covid-19 , a severe pneumonia-like illness .
Some people have only mild cases , or can remain healthy even as they transmit the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same family as the one that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS ) , but is less consistent in causing serious disease .
Its highly contagious nature has led to thousands of infections , leading to more deaths in two months than all those recorded in the nine-month SARS epidemic .
Another related virus , known as MERS-CoV , that ’ s been spreading since 2012 , has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded .
Still , neither of those outbreaks qualified as pandemics , by WHO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have a formal numerical definition , but it often occurs after efforts to contain the outbreak in one region or country fail .
The goal then switches from containment to mitigation -- trying to ease the pain .
The last virus to actually make the cut as a pandemic was the 2009 outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 flu , or swine flu .
It infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and may have killed as many as 575,000 people worldwide in the first year it circulated , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long before swine flu , perhaps one of the most widely cited public health pandemics was the 1918 flu outbreak , which killed about 5 % of those infected , an estimated 50 million people worldwide .
The WHO has said that it ’ s working on a new definition of a pandemic as it might relate to Covid-19 , but warned that this could take some time .
That ’ s in large part due to the WHO tightening its criteria for classifying an outbreak as a pandemic after the 2009 swine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the distinction may not be necessary .
In the meantime , the WHO on Jan. 30 declared the novel coronavirus a “ public health emergency of international concern , ” its highest level of alarm .
That ’ s a formal declaration of a public health risk that requires a “ coordinated international response .
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