washingtonpost--2020-05-13--Analysis | Froot Loops and Canned Soup Are Not the New American Diet

The Covid-19 pandemic and shelter-in-place orders have led consumers to revert to old ways of shopping in search of ready-made meals and foods with long shelf lives .
Parents who are working from home during this time are multitasking like never before , taking on the role of cook , housekeeper , teacher , disciplinary and full-time employee all at once in a Groundhog Day-like loop .
As such , traditional meal times have blurred , and in some cases snacks are replacing them , according to research by Euromonitor International .
This explains the resurgence of companies such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Annie ’ s , Betty Crocker , Cheerios , Pillsbury and Totino ’ s pizza rolls .
Its U.S. retail sales surged 45 % in March and 32 % in April .
To put that into context , the company ’ s average annual growth rate was just 1.5 % over the last decade .
In the U.S. , the food category that saw the biggest uptick in demand during the week ended April 25 was bread crumbs and other mixes for coating foods , followed by dough and batter products , according @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for brands such as Shake ‘ N Bake , whose parent company , Kraft Heinz Co. , just reported its first quarterly sales boost in more than a year .
In recent years leading up to this crisis , Campbell Soup Co. was perhaps the hardest hit by changing consumer tastes and demand for fresher foods .
The company lost $ 8.6 billion of shareholder value between mid-2016 and mid-2018 , a performance that saw its last CEO out .
But amid the shutdowns , Campbell ’ s stock has been staging a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ price in three years .
Kellogg Co. has called this a “ reappraisal opportunity ” for cereal — a chance to persuade shoppers to give its sugary products another try .
Speaking during Kellogg ’ s recent earnings call , CEO Steve Cahillane said : “ Consumers rediscovering these benefits could be very positive for this category , and we plan to seize this opportunity.
” But careful , Kellogg .
The fact of the matter is , even if the coronavirus leaves a lasting impression on certain aspects of consumer behavior , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shaping up to be more of a temporary phenomenon driven in part by food shortages and fear .
Consider the absurdity that about 20 % of store-bought noodles have been out of stock in the U.S. since mid-March , when the earliest lockdowns began , according to Euromonitor .
That ’ s on the same level as toilet paper shortages .
Even baker ’ s yeast , of all things , is still sold out in many places .
But just like we ’ re not all going to turn our YouTube-taught hair-cutting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us won ’ t keep up such rigorous home training for “ The Great British Bake Off , ” either .
Consumers generally still want fresh , less-processed and healthier-sounding foods .
Nielsen is already seeing this in surveys of other countries : In France , shoppers continue to seek out organic items , while Asian consumers say healthy eating has become more of a priority after the virus .
And if the post-virus rise of virtual fitness classes is any indication , health and wellness is still top of mind for lots @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , families need convenience right now and many are looking to save money as the U.S. dips deeper into a recession and the unemployment rate soars above 14 % .
That ’ s partly why seemingly dated grocery products are coming back into favor .
They also provide a sense of nostalgia and familiarity at a time when life has been thrown off course .
Another significant factor is all the bulk-buying : Wholesale stores such as Costco and BJ ’ s offer a much more limited variety that tends to be dominated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trendier products are increasingly making their way in ) .
Buying fresh and organic also usually costs more and sells in smaller packages .
Over the next few months , Euromonitor analysts expect a greater shift toward more affordable items , private-label brands and bulk purchases .
That does create an opportunity for the food giants .
A downside to stocking up is all the packaging and cardboard that accumulates , taking up space .
It ’ s an annoyance that companies could try to resolve if sheltering at home is to become @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the next couple of years rather than a distant memory .
As U.S. states reopen , though , consumers will probably start to go back to their old routines — or at least some version of them .
A bit of the doomsday-prepper mentality may remain , leading more households to keep their cupboards stocked with nonperishables , just in case .
But it ’ s fair to say that the future of the supermarket isn ’ t Kraft mac and cheese or Campbell ’ s canned soup .
It would be short-sighted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their innovation efforts .
If anything , it ’ s a time to step it up .


washingtonpost--2020-05-24--Analysis | China’s Crypto Is All About Tracing — and Power

The trials are taking place just as the blame game around the coronavirus deepens mistrust between the U.S. and China .
With President Donald Trump warning that Washington would respond if Beijing intervenes against protests and democratic movements in Hong Kong , chances of a detente from last year ’ s trade war are fading .
Outside the People ’ s Republic , the big question is if the digital yuan is a challenger to the dollar .
Within China , though , there ’ s a more mundane explanation for why Beijing wants to turn banknotes in circulation into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both computers and credit cards to embrace mobile payment apps , which have gone on to spawn large money-market funds investing in high-yielding wealth-management products .
This has led to the accumulation of risks in opaque shadow banking .
Bringing them out in the open requires a leg up for traditional lenders in payments , an area where financial technology has left them far behind .
The digital yuan , which will be pushed out to consumers via banks , seeks to restore this missing balance ; it will allow authorities to “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” says DBS Group Holdings Ltd. economist Nathan Chow .
Still , there ’ s also a power play .
It isn ’ t a coincidence that China ’ s project picked up speed last year as Facebook Inc. announced Libra .
The proposed stablecoin promised to hold its value against a basket of major official currencies rather than gyrating wildly like Bitcoin .
When it looked like regulators in the U.S. and elsewhere would nix this synthetic global cryptocurrency , the Libra Association curbed the scope of its undertaking .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ network for cost-effective retail payments , ” as described by Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings Pte , a new member of Libra ’ s Geneva-based governing body , remains alive .
For Beijing to shake the dollar ’ s hegemony , it has to pre-empt Silicon Valley from taking the pole position .
Hence the hurry for China ’ s test runs .
According to media reports , half the May transport subsidy for Suzhou municipal employees will be in the form of digital currency electronic payment , or DCEP , as it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a catchier moniker .
The pilot plan in Xiong ’ an , a satellite city of Beijing , includes coffee shops , fast food , retailers , theaters and bookstores , Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has noted .
The other trials are reserved for Chengdu and Shenzhen .
Thanks to Alipay and WeChat Pay , 80 % of Chinese smartphone users whip out their mobiles to make payments , more than anywhere in the world .
To them , the DCEP wallets being provided by the big four state banks should seem @ @ @ @ @ @ @ differences .
In this new system , a low-value transaction can go through even if both parties are offline .
Also , this is sovereign liability , safe if an intermediary goes bankrupt .
The big four lenders — and later fintech firms — will distribute the tokens , but the funds won ’ t reside in bank accounts .
This will be unlike existing payment apps that only move one institution ’ s IOUs to another .
Beijing was going to launch the digital money even before the pandemic .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ people ’ s fear of catching an infection from handling cash .
Also , it ’ s possible to trace in real time whether an anti-virus subsidy , given out in tokenized form , is reaching the target .
Once it has , the tracking would be “ turned off ” to ensure corporate and household spending stays anonymous , Goldman says .
Strictly speaking , though , the anonymity of cash will no longer exist .
Authorities can look under the hood of pseudonymous transactions for unwanted activity , an outcome far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( and money launderers ) to cryptocurrencies in the first place .
With the outbreak giving legitimacy to intrusive physical contact tracing , the case for financial tracing gets even stronger .
Exchange of digital yuan between customers and merchants will pop up on a centralized ledger , and go through far more swiftly than in Bitcoin-style setups that rely on widely distributed ledgers of asset ownership .
Every nation projects power when others desire its money — something that costs the home country nothing to produce .
But as with any digital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off first could end up winning disproportionately .
The digital yuan could find customers overseas , especially in places where China is making belt-and-road investments .
For one thing , they wouldn ’ t have to pay banks fat fees for running the $ 124 trillion-a-year business-to-business international transfers market .
By distributing digital currency through banks , China has given its big institutions a chance to match the payment technology of fintech rivals .
But it ’ s possible that a central bank in another country would bypass intermediaries altogether , potentially @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money to retail customers .
That , as I wrote in December , could upend banking .
The digital yuan may have started modestly , but it might pave the way for changes that are both ambitious and long outlast the coronavirus .

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washingtonpost--2020-04-15--Analysis | Put Americans Back to Work Fighting the Coronavirus

With “ contact tracing , ” a mainstay of infectious disease control , health workers identify people who have been infected , contact them , learn who they may have exposed , and reach out to those people to limit the spread .
Right now , the coronavirus is too widespread and testing too limited for such a targeted approach to work .
But once case numbers become more manageable , the U.S. will move away from what epidemiologists call the “ population-based ” approach , which requires everybody to self-isolate , and toward one focused on containing individual cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most of us can get back to normal life without risking devastating new outbreaks .
It ’ s a strategy that ’ s been shown to work against Covid-19 in New Zealand and Iceland .
In the U.S. , health officials use it to contain mumps and other diseases .
But in the current crisis , the U.S. doesn ’ t have enough public-health workers to do the job .
Contact tracing helped snuff out Liberia ’ s Ebola outbreak in 2014 , but it took 4,000 workers to protect the country ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a city of 11 million , reportedly needed 9,000 contact tracers to suppress Covid-19 .
Estimates vary , but the U.S. will need 100,000 to 300,000 contact tracers to contain the coronavirus .
That ’ s a lot of manpower .
Digital tools , such as apps used in Singapore and South Korea to automatically alert people who have been exposed to the coronavirus , can augment human labor — but they can ’ t replace it .
This is especially true in the U.S. , where stronger privacy protections and weaker quarantine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The high-profile contact-tracing program under development by Apple and Google will operate on an opt-in basis — which could limit its use substantially .
As Dr. Farzad Mostashari put it on Twitter , “ How do you get virtually everyone to put an always-on app on their phones that tracks their contacts , eats battery , and doesn ’ t do anything to delight them ?
” So state and local health departments should start thinking about how they can scale up their work forces .
A pilot program in Massachusetts could serve @ @ @ @ @ @ @ state is working with Partners in Health — the Boston-based nonprofit best known for its work in Haiti — to some hire some 1,000 contact tracers .
Since training will be provided , these entry-level jobs are open to anyone with a high school education .
The workers will track the ill and exposed using a web-based contact-management system , and ultimately connect them with testing and other services needed for quarantine , such as food delivery and even housing .
In return , entry-level contact tracers will earn $ 27 per hour @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the state minimum wage , but given the importance of fighting the virus — and relieving workers ’ distress during this stunning economic crisis — it will be money well spent .
Epidemiologist Gregg Gonsalves recently called for “ a WPA for public health , ” referring to the Depression-era program that employed millions to build roads , parks and other projects that endure to this day .
Eradicating the coronavirus would require fewer workers , but the employment situation is , for now , no less dire .
And importantly , containing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to return to normal as scientists work on a vaccine .
Many temporary contact tracers could return to their jobs once the crisis abates .
For others , contact tracing could be a stepping stone to a career in public health , where workers are desperately needed , because more than 50,000 public-health jobs evaporated during the Great Recession .
By one estimate U.S. is short a quarter-million such workers — who will need to be hired if we want to avoid future pandemics .
Expanding contact tracing is one of many ways @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Lawmakers from both parties have called for a Public Health Infrastructure Fund , which would raise $ 13 per person to ensure that the public-health system can meet its “ foundational capacities.
” That would amount to $ 4.5 billion , a tiny fraction of the money allocated for coronavirus relief so far .
Partnerships with universities , nonprofits and businesses — such as Massachusetts ’ s with Partners in Health — might offer another way for cash-strapped public-health agencies to scale up .
Until there ’ s a vaccine for Covid-19 — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus is going to be a problem .
We have , broadly speaking , three choices .
We could maintain shelter-in-place indefinitely , devastating the economy .
We could end it for everyone , leading to more outbreaks and needless deaths .
Or we could be strategic — identifying the sick and at-risk through testing and tracing , suppressing outbreaks , building up our public health capacity , and keeping laid-off workers employed until the economy has recovered enough to reabsorb them .
The choice is easy .


washingtonpost--2020-03-28--Analysis | Why Disease and Xenophobia Go Hand in Hand

Sadly , there ’ s nothing new in this .
As my colleague Pankaj Mishra has written , the current situation parallels events a century ago , when the first interconnected world economy unraveled into the chaos of World War I .
It was disease , as much as war and revolution , that drove that collapse .
The age of sail had imposed a natural restraint on both epidemics and migration .
It took as long as a month to cross the Atlantic , meaning any infections had already burned themselves out by the time a port was reached @ @ @ @ @ @ @ among Irish emigrants fleeing the potato famine of the 1840s under sail , the onboard outbreaks were so notorious that the boats were nicknamed “ coffin ships.
” Steamships changed all that , opening up ocean transport by drastically lowering its cost and cutting the time needed for transatlantic crossings to less than a week .
That helped spark the first era of mass migration as millions of Europeans left for the new world — but it also put the length of a transatlantic journey well within the period when diseases could spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been confined to an endemic area around Bengal , spread among the officers and traders of the British Empire to inflict devastating epidemics on every continent .
Smallpox pandemics played a crucial role in the Americas since Columbus ’ s day , enabling colonialism due to their devastating impacts on indigenous populations .
Yellow fever crept up repeatedly from the Caribbean and central America to ravage the southern U.S .
In 1889 , the first modern influenza pandemic spread rapidly from Russia to North America .
Since that era , immigration restrictions and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It ’ s no coincidence that sites in New York Harbor synonymous with migration such as Ellis Island and Liberty Island started life as quarantine stations .
“ International mobility is central to the globalization of infectious and chronic diseases , ” according to a 2007 bulletin from the World Health Organization .
“ The history of health and foreign policy reflects long-term links to migration issues.
” As people confined to their homes will be well aware , limits on human movement and interaction are crucial to holding back outbreaks of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a flaw in human reasoning quite as effectively as infections exploit flaws in our immune defenses .
The central fallacy is to assume that if international travel helps spread disease , a perceived “ foreign ” group is most likely to be carriers .
Viruses , though — unlike people — don ’ t much discriminate by race .
( 2 ) The Covid-19 outbreak in Italy is a case in point .
Several commentators have claimed without evidence that the source across the north of the country was the large number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fashion sector .
In fact , tracing the contacts of the infected and finding “ patient zero ” is a well-established practice in epidemics , and there ’ s no sign of any significant origins among garment workers .
All the research to date suggests the key source was instead a 38-year-old Unilever Plc employee named Mattia from the town of Codogno .
Despite the lack of evidence that ethnic groups are responsible for disease , the canard has been frequently been used to justify racist measures .
One notorious 19th-century cartoon from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a malignant octopus attacking the country , two of whose arms were labeled “ smallpox ” and “ typhoid.
” It was a similar story in the U.S. Only about 1 % of the mostly European immigrants coming to Ellis Island around the turn of the 20th century were rejected for medical reasons .
By contrast , some 17 % of the more Asian migrant population at San Francisco ’ s Angel Island was disbarred for sickness , owing in large part to more intrusive screening and vague disease categories applied to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Cubic Air Ordinance were justified on public health grounds as measures to combat “ insanitary ” overcrowding .
For much of the past century , the relative absence of pandemics has put the alliance between racism and disease into remission .
Vaccines , antibiotics , sewerage systems and a better understanding of hygiene have proved our most powerful tools for fighting disease .
One of the more enduring threats of coronavirus may be the way it changes this calculus .
With luck , the connections built up during this era of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Trump said Tuesday he would stop using the term “ Chinese virus.
” That ’ s a start .
( 1 ) Some diseases do appear to be prevalent at different rates among different ethnic groups , such as hepatitis C , although the mechanism for this isn ’ t well understood .
Many people with African ancestry are less likely to die from the malaria amoeba thanks to a side-effect of sickle-cell anemia , a blood condition .


washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Kenya Plans $503 Million Economic Stimulus to Battle Virus

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washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Analysis | What to Watch as China’s Legislature Finally Convenes

A draft agenda was approved but details weren ’ t released .
The session ’ s length will be “ appropriately shortened , ” the official Xinhua News Agency said , citing Zhang Yesui , head of the NPC Foreign Affairs Committee , but a closing date wasn ’ t given .
Previous gatherings ran about two weeks , culminating in a question and answer session with the premier .
It also wasn ’ t clear how much work would move online .
Premier Li Keqiang said virtual conferences would be set up for relevant ministries when NPC deputies review @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Despite such hurdles , Zhang said the session was committed to being as open possible .
Some 3,000 members of the NPC had originally been expected in early March , but it isn ’ t known how many people will turn up now .
Chinese President Xi Jinping and the other six members of the Politburo Standing Committee are also NPC deputies .
Previous NPCs included local and national party chiefs , government officials , company executives , provincial deputies and military commanders .
Everyone needs the Communist Party ’ s blessing to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tech billionaires .
While some Chinese and foreign journalists in the capital will be invited to cover it , none will be allowed from abroad .
News conferences , briefings and other interviews will be held by methods including video link .
Foreign envoys will be invited to observe plenary meetings , and some journalists will be invited to cover them in the Great Hall of the People , the NPC ’ s traditional focal point .
The party uses the NPC to announce major policy and personnel changes , like Xi ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which paved the way for him to rule indefinitely .
But it ’ s mostly a rubber stamp parliament , largely serving to ratify decisions made by other state bodies .
Research from Harvard University ’ s Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation has called it “ a ceremonial legislature.
” This year ’ s gathering holds symbolic importance in showing that China is getting back to normal following the Covid-19 outbreak , which was first discovered in central Hubei province in December .
A growing drumbeat of criticism from around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ initial handling of the pandemic , and a souring relationship with the U.S. that threatens to wreck an initial trade deal with President Donald Trump .
Australia -- which counts China as its biggest trading partner -- has called for an international probe into the virus ’ s origins , and even some countries in Europe -- where he had hoped to make further economic and diplomatic inroads -- have questioned the quality of medical products supplied by China to combat the virus .
There ’ s increasing global support for the inclusion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sees as part of its territory , in international bodies like the World Health Organization .
In Hong Kong , protests opposing China ’ s influence over the city are reemerging and providing another potential geopolitical flashpoint .
An annual vigil to remember the Tiananmen Square massacre is planned in the city on June 4 .
China uses the meeting to unveil its annual economic targets and defense spending projections .
Its leaders are considering the option of not setting a numerical target for economic growth this year given the uncertainty caused by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s economy into its first contraction in decades in the first quarter .
The economy is expected to expand 1.8 % in 2020 , according to a Bloomberg survey of economists as of May 19 .
That would be less than a third of last year ’ s growth rate , which was already near a 30-year low .
Top leaders softened their tone on the importance of reaching specific growth targets during a Politburo meeting in April , saying China faces “ unprecedented ” economic difficulty and signaling that more stimulus was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ target would suggest more stimulus measures to come , and a lower target would suggest officials are taking a more conservative approach .
The legislature is expected to deliberate on a draft Civil Code , with sections on property , contracts , marriage and family , inheritance and torts .
It could also discuss what ’ s been one of Xi ’ s most ambitious political projects : A drive to completely eradicate extreme poverty in the country by this year , a goal he first announced in 2015 .
The NPC runs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s top political advisory body , the Chinese People ’ s Political Consultative Conference .
Together they ’ re commonly known as the Lianghui , or “ Two Sessions .
”


washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Analysis | Why Indonesia’s QE Is Terrifying

Indonesia , with its current-account and fiscal deficits , has turned out to be a surprising forerunner in Asia .
In late March , the government tapped the central bank to buy sovereign bonds directly in the primary market , a practice shunned for two decades .
This would help fund a fiscal deficit that ’ s expanded to 5.1 % from its long-established cap of 3 % .
A large global investor base has boosted Indonesia ’ s confidence .
In early April , when credit markets were still jittery , the nation raised $ 4.3 billion from its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a 50-year tranche — the longest-dated dollar debt issued in Asia .
Last week , state-owned construction contractor PT Hutama Karya Persero sold a $ 600 million 10-year dollar bond that was fully guaranteed by Jakarta , another first .
This bond was six times oversubscribed .
Foreigners , who own about 30 % of government debt , gobbled it up .
But barely two months into this new experiment , investors are sitting on the sidelines , even when the rupiah-denominated 10-year sovereign offers a real yield of 5 % .
Most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ naked , or without hedging rupiah exposure first .
Bank Indonesia has tried hard to stabilize the currency , setting up a $ 60 billion swap line with the Federal Reserve , while negotiating another with China , its largest trading partner .
It has also expanded the domestic non-deliverable forward market , allowing local businesses to meet their dollar needs .
On Tuesday , the central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged for the second month , surprising most economists .
Nonetheless , the cost of hedging remains elevated , exceeding the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s hedging cost remains high in part because foreign demand is strong .
A back test shows why .
Over the last decade , long-term investors buying domestic sovereign bonds with a rupiah hedge would generate 4.8 % annualized returns , analysis conducted by JPMorgan Chase & Co .
shows .
( 2 ) Buying without the hedge only improves returns by 1 percentage point , but almost doubles the risk .
The best strategy is to hedge when the bond yield exceed rupiah forwards ’ implied yield , and sit out otherwise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now .
Take a look at Jakarta ’ s fiscal books , and all investors see is potential for a lot of money printing .
As a result of the expanded deficit , the domestic sovereign bond supply will increase by almost 90 % , forcing Bank Indonesia to buy another 350 trillion to 400 trillion rupiah ( $ 23.6 billion to $ 26.9 billion ) before the end of the year , estimates Goldman Sachs Group Inc. That would double the central bank ’ s holdings of such debt .
And this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rosy forecasts .
The government said Monday its 2020 deficit would widen to 6.2 % from 5.1 % previously .
New expenses could still spring up .
For instance , an $ 8.6 billion bailout plan is now in the works to help struggling state-owned companies .
Under President Joko Widodo ’ s first term , many fell to junk territory and balance sheets deteriorated as businesses financed big infrastructure projects .
Already , lawmakers are berating the central bank for not printing money fast enough .
Developed nations are lucky .
Thanks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ status , the Federal Reserve managed to rapidly expand its balance sheet to one-third of gross domestic product from around 20 % at the end of 2019 .
Nonetheless , traders still worry that the U.S. government ’ s rapid debt build-up will spook foreigners , who own roughly a quarter of Treasuries .
Emerging markets don ’ t have the luxury of pursuing their own QE .
During the taper tantrum of 2013 , the rupiah lost 15 % of its value in just three months after former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that May .
Indonesia ’ s 10-year sovereign yield jumped as much as 3 percentage points .
This wound is still fresh for investors and the threat of capital flight is real .


washingtonpost--2020-05-18--Trump Hails Virus Cure Progress as Restaurants Seek Added Help

Jose Cil , the chief executive of Burger King parent company Restaurant Brands International , told Trump in a meeting at the White House on Monday that the Paycheck Protection Program should be extended so that the loans can be spent over 24 weeks instead of eight .
Several other restaurateurs agreed .
Will Guidara , the former co-owner of Eleven Madison Park in New York and a founding member of the Independent Restaurant Coalition that sprang up in response to the virus crisis , told the president that more restaurants would re-open if the loan program is changed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ owners were confident the loans would be forgiven .
“ In times like this , a lot of people have their hands out .
I don ’ t take that lightly , ” Guidara said .
“ I do believe that independent restaurants are more vulnerable than most and a really important part of this nation , and I don ’ t want to lose them.
” The Small Business Administration ’ s PPP program allows loans of as much as $ 10 million that must be spent mostly on payroll and can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the eight weeks after a loan is received .
Restaurants want that time extended because many aren ’ t ready to open or be fully functional after eight weeks .
Trump asked Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to look into making the change .
Mnuchin said that he ’ s working on a “ technical fix ” to extend the period that has bipartisan support , but that he isn ’ t sure it will be as long as the restaurant owners are seeking .
“ Tremendous progress has been made ” in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pointing to an announcement by Moderna Inc. earlier Monday that its experimental vaccine was shown to be safe and to create antibodies in 25 human test subjects .
He also mentioned that he has proposed restoring tax deductions for corporate spending at restaurants , which was eliminated in his 2017 tax overhaul .
At the meeting , he asked Mnuchin how that proposal , which would require congressional action , was proceeding .
Restaurants are also asking for more flexibility from a rule requiring that at least 75 % of PPP proceeds be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to pay rent and other expenses .
The National Restaurant Association , a longstanding industry group , had earlier proposed a separate $ 240 billion grant program to help cover ongoing payroll , operating expenses and reopening expenses .
The White House isn ’ t yet seriously negotiating a fourth round of coronavirus-related stimulus , the likely vehicle for any change in the tax code .
Trump and other White House officials have said they want to wait to see how trillions of dollars of stimulus already authorized affect the economy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 3 trillion Democratic economic stimulus bill that Republicans and Trump have already rejected .
The measure included many proposed changes to PPP that restaurants and other firms are seeking , including extending the loan forgiveness period to 24 weeks and scrapping the 75 % payroll requirement .
Tilman Fertitta , chairman and chief executive of Landry ’ s Inc. , said he wasn ’ t able to tap PPP because he ’ s a larger business .
He asked whether a separate funding category could be created for larger restaurateurs .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 120 billion in stabilization funds for small restaurants , said in a statement after the meeting that U.S. restaurants are “ looking at months of massive revenue losses ” because of government social-distancing mandates , higher costs for personal protective equipment and a decrease in the public ’ s willingness to dine out .


washingtonpost--2020-05-18--Analysis | TikTok’s Poaching of Disney’s Streaming Boss May Sting

Mayer was considered by many to be the leading candidate to replace Disney CEO Bob Iger , but the board went with another pick .
Bob Chapek , who had been running Disney ’ s parks and resorts , became CEO of the entire company in February , an announcement that caught investors off-guard and predated the virus-related U.S. lockdowns .
As I wrote at the time , Chapek in some ways represents Disney ’ s past , while Mayer represents its future as a company with a strong focus on entertainment content and streaming .
That ’ s even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lasting effects on things like theme-park and movie-theater attendance .
Iger has stayed on as executive chairman , though the recent setbacks appear to have drawn him back into more of a hands-on role , while Chapek focuses on getting the parks back up and running .
( Disney World begins its phased reopening Wednesday ; Shanghai Disney has already reopened . )
Mayer ’ s role at Disney is being filled by Rebecca Campbell , who has spent 23 years at the company .
Though she has a lower profile , Campbell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Europe and was most recently president of Disneyland Resort .
Disney+ has 54.5 million subscribers , but its relatively smaller content library and kid-heavy programming will face tough competition from Netflix — and maybe even newer entrants HBO Max ( from AT & T Inc. ’ s WarnerMedia ) and Peacock ( from Comcast Corp. ’ s NBCUniversal ) .
It doesn ’ t help that Hollywood productions have had to shut down because of social distancing .
Iger may still be the face of Disney and Chapek is leading the company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eyes will be on Campbell this year , too .
This also means that Disney finally has another woman in the C-suite ( its chief financial officer is Christine McCarthy ) — and in this case , a role that is most assuredly on track for the next Disney CEO opening someday .
Until then , she ’ ll have to figure out how Disney+ lures its next 50 million subscribers .
Change could be good .
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the business of entertainment and telecommunications , as well as broader deals .
She previously wrote an M & A column for Bloomberg News .
For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion


washingtonpost--2020-05-15--‘Stealth Bailout’ Shovels Millions of Dollars to Oil Companies

“ This is a stealth bailout for the oil and gas industry , ” said Jesse Coleman , a senior researcher with Documented , a watchdog group tracking the tax claims .
It ’ s geared to companies “ that have been losing money over the last few years -- and now they get that money back as a check from the taxpayers .
That ’ s exactly what the oil industry has been doing.
” Other oil companies say they didn ’ t lobby Congress for the change , which is widely available across all industries .
“ We @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we are obligated to follow the tax laws as passed by Congress , which apply to all corporate manufacturers nationwide , ” said Jamal Kheiry , a spokesman for Marathon , which got a $ 411 million benefit .
Congress embedded the tax change governing losses in the stimulus measure early on , as lawmakers moved rapidly in March to steer trillions of dollars in aid to coronavirus-ravaged workers and companies .
Alongside expanded unemployment payments and payroll loan programs , lawmakers saw an opportunity to harness the tax code to help get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rent , workers and insurance .
That new forward-focused approach works well when the economy is expanding , but the promise of using today ’ s losses as tomorrow ’ s deductions isn ’ t much help to coronavirus-battered companies with no guarantee they will survive long enough to claim them .
So in the stimulus package , Congress gave businesses the chance to carry back all their losses -- and claim immediate tax refunds -- for five years from 2018 , 2019 and 2020 .
“ The thought was temporarily we should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are seeing significant losses in the next year or over the past year or two can carry those back and get some short-term liquidity , ” said Garrett Watson , a senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation , a non-profit that supports pro-growth tax policies .
Traditionally , the ability to deduct net operating losses is meant to ensure companies get fair tax treatment even amid volatility , Watson said -- a plus for the notoriously boom-and-bust oil industry .
“ You are going to see the biggest benefits for firms like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ profits -- and now , of course , extreme losses , ” he said .
“ We ’ re going to have some large losses this year , ” ConocoPhillips Executive Vice President Don Wallette said in an April 30 earnings call .
The company is in “ a zero-tax-paying position in the U.S. and expect to remain there for quite some time , ” Wallette said .
In a first quarter filing , Diamond , which is majority owned by Loews Corp. , said it had recognized a tax benefit of $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ carryback change .
In an emergency motion filed with a federal bankruptcy court May 1 , the company asked for the freedom to dole out $ 16.7 million in cash incentives to 85 of its 2,300 full-time employees , including as much as $ 9.7 million for nine senior executives .
Occidental Petroleum , which enlisted its employees to ask Congress to “ provide liquidity to the energy industry , ” said it now anticipates a cash refund of about $ 195 million as a result of the carryback provision and a separate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the immediate refund of unused alternative minimum tax credits .
An Occidental spokesperson declined to comment .
Valero spokeswoman Lillian Riojas said that is tied to tax losses generated in the first quarter , since the company did not generate a net operating loss for federal income tax purposes in 2018 or 2019 .
And she said the actual refund will be dependent “ not only on the company ’ s performance for the remainder of the year , but also on the impact ” of other tax provisions .
The benefits are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center .
That ’ s because businesses can carry back losses to offset income at a higher corporate tax rate of 35 % , before the 2017 tax cut law lowered it 14 points .
“ Getting those losses at 35 % is very , very favorable -- especially in 2020 when the losses are going to be devastatingly large.
” The filings themselves reveal only part of the picture .
Private companies are able to generate tax refunds too -- without disclosing it to the SEC .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ benefited from the tax break , they didn ’ t reveal by how much .
For instance , refiner Phillips 66 boasted an effective income tax rate of just 2 % for the first quarter -- well below the federal statutory income tax rate of 21 % -- partly because of the carryback .
But the company did not specify the amount of its expected refund .


washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Analysis | Why Use a Banker When an App Can Do the Job?

Compass is in the catering business , a corporate casualty of the Covid-19 crisis .
Its underlying revenue dropped nearly 50 % in April .
The group is seeking to raise more than 10 % of its current market value to cut its too-high debt .
That would normally oblige it to do a time-consuming and expensive rights offer , making shares available to all of its existing shareholders to protect them from dilution .
But the British rules were relaxed in April and companies like Compass can now sell shares to whomever they like , which has usually meant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ That has been controversial as existing small shareholders have been getting diluted with no chance of doing anything about it .
Compass ’ s tiny retail offering in its new fundraising — capped by regulators at 7 million pounds — makes no difference to whether it will raise the 2 billion-pound target .
But it respects the principle that small shareholders have the same rights as big ones .
The deal nevertheless underscores the oddities of the current regime .
First , the retail part of the sale isn ’ t for existing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it just mirrors the main offering to institutional investors .
It doesn ’ t prevent new shareholders from diluting existing ones , it just provides a new distribution channel .
The small size of the offering limits the number of people who might get burned if the shares fall later .
But either the offering is suitable for retail , in which case the cap is perhaps illogical , or it is not .
Placings like these appear superficially advantageous for those involved .
After all , the terms need to be attractive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would be no point in anyone participating .
And if retail investors can buy shares in the market , then it ’ s logical to let them buy shares in a placing .
The danger is that hype builds around these deals and the shares , often sold cheaply , end up being seen as a one-way bet by naive investors .
The reality is that the companies raising equity in a hurry right now are doing so mainly because they ’ d be in difficulty otherwise .
The performance of the stock @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been very variable .
But the direction of travel is clear .
Technology is wedging itself into the process of selling shares and allowing broader participation and a fairer distribution of dilutive stock .
That will benefit smaller institutional shareholders and family offices as well as retail investors .
For the big investment banks , their role will gradually become more about giving good advice ahead of these deals and less about shifting the shares .


washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Covid-19 Will Expose the Ghosts in the U.S. Economy

Consider your local restaurants .
I live in Northern Virginia , which is scattered with thousands of dining establishments of many different kinds .
Many of them are currently open for takeout and delivery but not for sit-down dining .
Even when they are allowed to welcome customers back inside , social distancing will mean they can ’ t serve nearly as many patrons as before .
That ’ s the supply side .
Demand for in-restaurant dining is likely to fall as well , though estimates vary .
Since the average small business carries less than a month ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the wait for a vaccine is likely to be at least a year , many restaurants will simply be unable to survive the shrinking of the market .
I call these places ghost restaurants because they are still walking around , so to speak , visible to us and listed on Yelp , but not really alive and without much of a future .
In a few months ’ time , a significant number of these ghost enterprises will be gone .
My drive around Northern Virginia , rather than being rich with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ desolate — and the overall economic landscape will indeed be much emptier .
We are still watching TV shows made before the pandemic , but the supply of new material is starting to run thin .
South Korea and a few other nations are producing fresh content , but a lot of U.S. television programming is already looking to adapt to the new scarcity of programming content .
My local dry cleaner is still in business , taking advantage of its previous market position .
But even once the lockdown is fully lifted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work or to formal events .
Demand to have suits pressed is way down , and soon enough that will translate into a far fewer dry cleaning shops .
If you own a small business , you might be wondering whether you should stick around in a declining sector .
But what exactly can you do ?
You ’ ve already signed a lease , you have a lot of money invested in equipment , and it is hardly possible to start up a new business in the meantime .
So you wait @ @ @ @ @ @ @ image of diverse commercial activity that does not quite correspond to the long-term picture .
Another less visible effect is that fewer replacement firms and small businesses are on the way .
Covid-19 aside , small businesses have a natural life cycle , with many of them disappearing once the owner retires .
Such retirements are more likely now ( not just because business is bad , but because being out on the floor involves a health risk ) .
But how will new businesses arise to take their place ?
It is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ harder to line up financing , harder to identify qualified assistants and staff — and consumer spending is down , too .
And while an all-but-certain death awaits some businesses , others can look forward to mere stagnation .
If you are a 23-year-old entrepreneur , how easy will it be to build up the network of “ soft ties ” that will help you launch the next phase of your career ?
As many marginal businesses are going under , it is quite possible that the public-health situation will improve .
Civic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , giving urban landscapes a confusing feel .
And because there will be fewer businesses to choose from , it will be all the harder for those remaining to enforce social distancing .
Many Americans have been clamoring lately for more freedom , and those desires are understandable .
But as they emerge from lockdown , they might well be disappointed to discover that , above all else , what people will be exercising is the freedom to go out of business .


washingtonpost--2020-05-19--Analysis | Pandemic Seems to Last Forever. So Did Earnings Calls.


washingtonpost--2020-05-18--Analysis | QE in an Emerging Market? Sounds Like a Brilliant Plan

Indonesia , with its current-account and fiscal deficits , has turned out to be a surprising forerunner in Asia .
In late March , the government tapped the central bank to buy sovereign bonds directly in the primary market , a practice shunned for two decades .
This would help fund a fiscal deficit that ’ s expanded to 5.1 % from its long-established cap of 3 % .
A large global investor base has boosted Indonesia ’ s confidence .
In early April , when credit markets were still jittery , the nation raised $ 4.3 billion from its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a 50-year tranche — the longest-dated dollar debt issued in Asia .
Last week , state-owned construction contractor PT Hutama Karya Persero sold a $ 600 million 10-year dollar bond that was fully guaranteed by Jakarta , another first .
This bond was six times oversubscribed .
Foreigners , who own about 30 % of government debt , gobbled it up .
But barely two months into this new experiment , investors are sitting on the sidelines , even when the rupiah-denominated 10-year sovereign offers a real yield of 5 % .
Most @ @ @ @ @ @ @ naked , or without hedging rupiah exposure first .
Bank Indonesia has tried hard to stabilize the currency , setting up a $ 60 billion swap line with the Federal Reserve , while negotiating another with China , its largest trading partner .
It has also expanded the domestic non-deliverable forward market , allowing local businesses to meet their dollar needs .
Nonetheless , the cost of hedging remains elevated , exceeding the domestic bond yield .
The rupiah ’ s hedging cost remains high in part because foreign demand is strong .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the last decade , long-term investors buying domestic sovereign bonds with a rupiah hedge would generate 4.8 % annualized returns , analysis conducted by JPMorgan Chase & Co .
shows .
( 2 ) Buying without the hedge only improves returns by 1 percentage point , but almost doubles the risk .
The best strategy is to hedge when the bond yield exceed rupiah forwards ’ implied yield , and sit out otherwise , which is what ’ s happening now .
Take a look at Jakarta ’ s fiscal books , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lot of money printing .
As a result of the expanded deficit , the domestic sovereign bond supply will increase by almost 90 % , forcing Bank Indonesia to buy another 350 trillion to 400 trillion rupiah ( $ 23.6 billion to $ 26.9 billion ) before the end of the year , estimates Goldman Sachs Group Inc. That would double the central bank ’ s holdings of such debt .
And this is just an estimate based on earlier rosy forecasts .
The government said Monday its 2020 deficit would widen to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New expenses could still spring up .
For instance , an $ 8.6 billion bailout plan is now in the works to help struggling state-owned companies .
Under President Joko Widodo ’ s first term , many fell to junk territory and balance sheets deteriorated as businesses financed big infrastructure projects .
Already , lawmakers are berating the central bank for not printing money fast enough .
Developed nations are lucky .
Thanks to the dollar ’ s reserve currency status , the Federal Reserve managed to rapidly expand its balance sheet to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 20 % at the end of 2019 .
Nonetheless , traders still worry that the U.S. government ’ s rapid debt build-up will spook foreigners , who own roughly a quarter of Treasuries .
Emerging markets don ’ t have the luxury of pursuing their own QE .
During the taper tantrum of 2013 , the rupiah lost 15 % of its value in just three months after former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke floated the idea of ending bond purchases that May .
Indonesia ’ s 10-year sovereign yield jumped as much as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still fresh for investors and the threat of capital flight is real .


washingtonpost--2020-05-01--Analysis | Exxon Mobil’s Problem Is Strategic, Not Pandemic

As at the company ’ s March analyst day , CEO Darren Woods began with a familiar declaration of long-term growth trends for oil and gas .
Even back then , this “ straight line ” view of global energy ’ s future looked questionable .
Eight long weeks on , it looks divorced from reality ; the very first analyst question gently raised that possibility , citing jet fuel in particular ( which is critical ) .
Exxon ’ s high-spending strategy implicitly demands a recovery in oil and gas prices , which makes it more like an exploration @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While the company has slashed this year ’ s capex budget to $ 23 billion , that remains above the pre-Covid guidance for rival Chevron Corp. One of Woods ’ s more striking statements was that Exxon will take the number of rigs it has operating in the Permian basin down by 75 % to 15 this year .
That new level is roughly where Chevron , the second biggest operator by rigs , was before this crisis struck .
So Exxon ’ s prior push in shale is what you might call @ @ @ @ @ @ @ problem : That business also happens to be a huge drag on Exxon ’ s returns .
Of 21 quarters since the start of 2015 , Exxon ’ s U.S. upstream business has been profitable in just eight of them .
( 1 ) Yet it has accounted for more than a quarter of capex and fully two-thirds of asset impairments .
In early 2019 , Exxon was projecting $ 5 billion of free cash flow from its Permian business in 2023 .
It was an astounding number then .
A year on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up the sixth quarter in a row of negative free cash flow , Exxon was bound to get some direct questions about the sustainability of its dividend .
As it is , the changing dynamics of the mature oil industry raise doubts about the wisdom of having a progressive dividend in the first place ( see this ) , emphasized by Royal Dutch Shell Plc ’ s shock cut this week .
Woods dismissed the comparison , but there is one uncomfortable similarity between the two companies .
Evercore ISI analyst Doug Terreson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up , Shell had spent $ 125 billion and increased net debt by more than $ 50 billion between 2015 and 2019 .
The result : Return on capital employed dropped by half , even though oil prices increased by 20 % across the period .
Calculating the same figures for Exxon from the Bloomberg Terminal , Exxon spent $ 102 billion and increased net debt by $ 25 billion .
Return on capital dropped 40 % .
A progressive dividend demands investment in the underlying business .
But the pace at which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the plunge into shale , has left it relying more and more on the balance sheet to take the strain .
Net debt to capital jumped 5 percentage points over the past year , with almost half of that in the last quarter alone .
And the current quarter ’ s impact on earnings will be worse .
Woods noted Friday that one reason to defend the dividend is the fact that 70 % of the shareholder base is made up of retail and long-term investors who rely on those checks .
Like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ long-term growth for oil and gas , and the capex spree that supports , those shareholders may be clinging to past glories .
Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy , mining and commodities .
He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal ’ s Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times ’ Lex column .
He was also an investment banker .


washingtonpost--2020-03-10--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Spreading Coronavirus

It has been described as “ insidious ” because many infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , unwittingly spreading it to others .
As of March 3 , the fatality rate was about 3.4 % based on globally reported cases , the World Health Organization said .
Such numbers are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak , however .
Some disease-modeling experts project as many as hundreds of thousands of people are actually infected , most of whom don ’ t even know they have it .
One study published Feb. 10 estimated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all cases , including those with no or only mild symptoms , are counted .
A related coronavirus killed 9.5 % of patients in the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS , and another known as MERS-CoV has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded since 2012 .
In those outbreaks , however , the viruses didn ’ t transmit from one person to another as efficiently as this new one appears to do .
Certainly , they didn ’ t spread as widely as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent history , an estimated 50 million people died in the 1918 influenza pandemic that had a case-fatality ratio of about 2 % but infected as much as a third of the world ’ s population .
Symptoms begin to appear on average five to six days after infection .
The virus appear to cause a mild illness lasting about two weeks in children , adolescents and younger adults in most cases , and potentially more severe disease lasting three to six weeks in older people .
Frequently reported early signs are fever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ production if it stays in the nose and throat , which it does for the majority of people unlucky enough to be infected .
Danger starts when it reaches the lungs .
One in seven patients develops difficulty breathing and other severe complications , while 6 % become critical .
These patients typically suffer failure of the respiratory and other vital systems , and sometimes develop septic shock , according to a WHO report .
In severe cases , studies suggest the virus invades cells in the lower respiratory tract , causing difficulty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
It appears to be the elderly and those with other serious health issues .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with underlying illnesses such as high blood pressure , diabetes or cardiovascular disease .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found most deaths occurred in patients over 60 years old .
Of all confirmed cases , 81 % were mild , 14 % were severe and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , an outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 flu in 2009 , infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and may have killed as many as 575,000 people worldwide in the first year it circulated -- with about 80 % of them younger than 65 , according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
By coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes , according to the WHO ’ s first comprehensive report on Covid-19 .
These droplets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in close proximity or via hands and surfaces .
How long it survives on surfaces is still not known , but preliminary studies suggest coronaviruses may remain infectious from a few hours to a few days .
Simple disinfectants kill it .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the virus can spread through feces or farther through the air in tiny particles known as aerosols .
People who are still incubating the virus and show no symptoms may spread it .
Health authorities are concerned about what ’ s known as community spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ among people outside of known contacts with other patients .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people likely to be infected by an individual with the virus .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( pronounced “ r naught ” ) , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
A study of an outbreak aboard a cruise ship estimated that the r0 for Covid-19 was 2.28 during the early stages .
That would make it more infectious than seasonal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about 1.3 and killed an estimated 61,000 people in the U.S. in the 2017-18 season .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them , responsible for diseases that range in severity from the common cold to MERS .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
The WHO says that new strains emerge periodically around the globe , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
The virus emerged in early December @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as zoonoses , comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
There is always concern when a new human pathogen emerges because people typically lack immunity to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel coronaviruses -- those unseen in humans before -- represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , as SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Wuhan , the original epicenter , on March 10 for the first time since the disease emerged , a trip intended to project confidence that his government has managed to stem its spread domestically .
Numbers of new cases have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in late January , sealing off some 60 million people .
New hospitals were built from the ground up in days , and the production of medical equipment was ramped up .
( Some makeshift centers in stadiums , hotels and office buildings have started to fold up as patients have recovered . )
With Covid-19 showing up in more places , officials began to switch their goal from stopping its spread to preparing for it amid shortages of testing kits , face @ @ @ @ @ @ @ imposed export restrictions .
Italy , the worst hit country in Europe , is the first to attempt a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread .
Many countries are denying or restricting entry for non-citizens arriving from China , parts of Europe , South Korea and hard-hit Iran .
U.S. President Donald Trump appointed Vice President Mike Pence to lead the federal response as local governments stepped up readiness efforts .
Globally , governments are looking at a mix of cash handouts , tax breaks and transfers to counter the virus ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health emergency , a designation that can help mobilize international responses .
The World Bank has allocated $ 12 billion in virus aid for developing economies .
Early praise for China ’ s response has ebbed .
The country did not immediately release genetic information about the virus and has struggled to explain changes in the way it counts new cases .
In a nation where the internet is heavily censored , there was a rare outpouring of social media fury over the death from the virus of a Chinese doctor who had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outbreak but was silenced by police .
The top officials in Wuhan and Hubei were later removed from their posts .
But China ’ s strict quarantine likely bought the rest of the world two to three weeks to prepare for the virus and averted many infections , according to the WHO .
Reductions in travel , work-from-home orders and disruptions in supply chains have slowed economic activity , especially in China and among its many trading partners .
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that the Covid-19 crisis posed the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy since the financial crisis more than a decade ago .
Global markets have suffered some of the sharpest falls in years amid all the uncertainty .
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates in its first emergency move since the financial crisis .
Group of Seven finance chiefs pledged to use “ all appropriate policy tools ” to safeguard economic growth .


washingtonpost--2020-03-04--Analysis | Pizza Deliverers Are Doubly Exposed to the Coronavirus

On the surface , that might seem like good news for those increasingly in-demand couriers .
Orders on food-delivery apps in Hong Kong and South Korea grew at double-digit rates in January and February .
But the reality is that in an increasingly global public-health crisis , especially one that is already dealing damage to the economy , it ’ s the foot soldiers of 21st-century capitalism — Deliveroo riders , Uber drivers , TaskRabbit jobbers , “ zero-hours ” workers — who look doubly vulnerable .
The grim reality for gig workers is that they know they can ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most people ordering burritos in self-imposed isolation have the comfort of relying on benefits , sick pay and employment law to protect them , those delivering the meals usually don ’ t .
The business model of the sharing economy depends on using not “ employees ” but rather cheap armies of contractors , or freelancers , or self-employed workers with far fewer rights and little to no vacation or sick pay .
So at a time when people are being told to put their health first , gig workers are incentivized to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ self-isolate .
The fact that an economic slowdown this year now looks inevitable serves as a double-whammy for those in crucial yet precarious roles , because it also means overall demand for their services will probably fall .
The services based on matching customers to cheap laborers seem happier with quick-fix measures rather than reassuring or compensating workers .
In China , food deliveries come with the body temperatures of those who handle them ; ride-hailing firms have installed protective sheets separating drivers from passengers .
The merest suspicion can lead to brutally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ customer accounts in Mexico after one passenger was suspected of infection .
And in the U.K. , where about 2 million workers do not earn the minimum 118 pounds ( $ 151 ) a week to qualify for statutory sick pay , workers such as cleaners , truck drivers and bar staff are all under pressure to work or risk having next to nothing in the bank .
This is too big a chunk of the economy to ignore .
In the U.S. , gig work has been estimated at 10 % to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It could be as high as 20 % , according to Vincent Deluard , strategist at broker INTL FCStone Financial Inc .
It covers a population easily hit by earnings instability , judging by 2018 evidence that showed Uber and Lyft drivers often make less than minimum wage .
The long-term solution will inevitably involve securing more rights for these workers , but that is a gradual multi-year process .
A new law in California aiming to convert gig workers from independent contractors to employees with benefits is being challenged by firms such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the U.K. a legal fight over the employment status of Uber drivers backed by the Independent Workers Union of Great Britain ( 1 ) will be taken to the Supreme Court .
The European Union ’ s antitrust chief , Margrethe Vestager , last month told Bloomberg News she wanted to help gig workers fight for better pay and conditions .
But more short-term measures are needed — as evidenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve ’ s emergency rate cut — and giving away money seems like an increasingly attractive idea .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s chief economist , called for “ temporary direct transfers ” to compensate households exposed to the economic effects of the fight against Covid-19 .
Hong Kong might be trying that out soon .
Its government is eyeing one-time handouts of HK $ 10,000 ( $ 1,286 ) to all permanent residents over 18 .
This may turn out to be the perfect test case for the idea of a universal basic income , or similar suggestions .
Facebook Inc. co-founder Chris Hughes has sung the praises of a guaranteed income of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , financed through wealth taxes and moderate deficit spending .
No job is permanent : The side-gigs that were around during the 1918 Spanish flu , like street sweepers and shoe shiners , are no longer so prevalent .
But the fact that the new coronavirus scare is so quickly exposing deep iniquities within the economy should be a call to action .
Armor-plated couriers putting their lives at risk to deliver pizza should remain firmly within the realms of fiction .


washingtonpost--2020-03-09--Analysis | Central Banks Need to Sober Up for This Panic

If the Federal Reserve were to ask chief financial officers of firms whose supply chains have been disrupted by the outbreak in China , South Korea , Singapore and Japan , it ’ s not the cost of funding that ’ s keeping them awake at night , but availability of liquidity in the right places .
The corporate banking rails on which money moves across countries are provided in Asia by Citigroup Inc. , HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc .
From hedging currency volatility in countries where firms buy and sell stuff to funding their vendors ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in different countries , multinationals in Asia rely on these three “ global locals , ” as banking consultant Greenwich Associates calls them .
The U.S.-China trade war has already triggered a search for production bases that aren ’ t too reliant on the People ’ s Republic .
The coronavirus has further shown the folly of keeping all eggs in one basket .
But a fresh location requires local-currency funding in a new country .
Turning on such taps is easier for HSBC , Citi or StanChart , recently ranked by Greenwich @ @ @ @ @ @ @ penetration for banking and cash management for large companies in Asia .
“ Over the past 12 months , securing reliable financing has replaced cost optimization as the top priority , ” say the firm ’ s analysts Gaurav Arora and Winston Jin .
“ It makes sense for large Asian companies to turn to banks that span multiple countries and have deep expertise in transaction banking.
” Just when there ’ s demand for their services , rate cuts , like the Fed ’ s half-percentage-point reduction , which is bound to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ entire U.S. yield curve has dipped below 1 % for the first time , will damage lenders by crimping their ability to eke out a decent net interest margin and investor returns .
Unable to achieve the return that shareholders want , HSBC is cutting 35,000 jobs ; StanChart , which last year earned just 6.4 % on its tangible equity , two percentage points less than HSBC , may be fishing for a new chief executive , according to a story this week by Bloomberg News .
Citi ’ s boss Mike @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t trim down operations in Asia to earn the 19 % that Jamie Dimon garners at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Citi managed only 12 % last year .
Indeed , as Greenwich ’ s Arora says , JPMorgan ’ s appetite to take on the risk of large companies in Asia has risen exponentially over the past few years because Wall Street ’ s biggest spender on new technology isn ’ t distracted by the problems dogging HSBC or StanChart .
Against this backdrop , if central banks further weaken the profit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ zeal to cut rates , these lenders may be reluctant to open up their balance sheets to corporate clients , especially with the epidemic prompting them to step up loss provisions to deal with future bad loans .
They may also lose critical transaction banking talent to local and increasingly aggressive Japanese rivals that can currently support firms in just a few countries .
Had the coronavirus been hurting global demand more than supply , cutting rates boldly would have been the right response .
But so far , demand destruction is mostly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sales fell by a record 80 % in February .
The rest of the world is mostly facing a supply crunch — or in the case of oil , a glut , sparked by a price war among the world ’ s largest crude producers .
One way to deal with supply shocks is to ensure that the nuts and bolts of banking that support production , storage , transport and distribution don ’ t get corroded by the oxygen of cheap money .
Since the 2008 crisis , central banks have gotten @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and so blinded by the idea that they alone can save the world — that they ’ re missing this important link .
Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services .
He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews .
He has also worked for the Straits Times , ET NOW and Bloomberg News .


washingtonpost--2020-03-09--Trump Weighs Economic Options on Virus in Shadow of Market Rout

The exact means of delivering financial assistance to industries is still being discussed , according to one of the people , but it ’ s more likely to come as cash disbursements than tax credits .
Other options that have been discussed by administration officials include a possible payroll tax cut and a reduction in tariffs on some Chinese imports , the person said .
In any case , pressure is growing on Trump to take more decisive action in response to the virus outbreak , as the number of cases in the U.S. and worldwide continues to grow .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ closed down nearly 8 % on Monday , its steepest one-day decline since the 2008 financial crisis , as a plunge in crude prices rattled financial markets already on edge over coronavirus .
The rout took the S & P 500 ’ s fall from its Feb. 19 record high toward 19 % , threatening to end the bull market that began 11 years ago to the day .
Among the issues that has emerged as a priority is the sudden instability in oil markets touched off by a breakdown in talks between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ output .
With crude prices down more than 30 % on Monday , administration officials are making efforts to reach out to counterparts in Moscow and Riyadh , one of the people said , without elaborating .
While plunging oil prices may reduce gasoline prices , consumers and businesses are dramatically cutting back travel because of coronavirus fears and unlikely to take advantage of the potential bargain .
The drop in crude prices also bodes poorly for U.S. shale producers in places like Texas and North Dakota .
Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Committee , is looking into possible targeted tax relief measures in response to the outbreak , according to a statement Monday from his office that offered no specifics .
Later Monday , House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to meet with top Democrats to craft a response to the economic disruption caused by the virus .
Some of the components of the administration ’ s economic package could change , while others , such as a sick leave plan , may require congressional action .
Much of the aid for companies could be carried @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the people said .
A small group of White House and Treasury officials worked on a set of options through the weekend , the people said .
The timing of any of the measures is unclear , but they would likely be rolled out on a step-by-step basis , beginning with aid to individual Americans who are infected , then expanding to companies and workers affected by lost business .
In addition , the scope of central banks to act this time around is limited because of how low interest rates already are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ week and acted again Monday by boosting the size of this week ’ s overnight and term repurchase operations to help add liquidity to the markets .
But policy makers have urged governments in recent weeks to respond with fiscal stimulus .
Trump and his top economic adviser , Larry Kudlow , have both questioned whether a broad intervention would be needed in response to the coronavirus , pointing to a strong jobs report on Friday .
But Kudlow said the same day that limited measures might be considered .
The top two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do more in response to the outbreak , including an expansion of affordable testing and stronger protections for health workers .
Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer also called for making paid sick leave available to workers affected by quarantine orders and school closings .
Officials drafting the adminstration ’ s package are aware that funding a temporary expansion of sick leave is only helpful if public health authorities can accelerate testing of individuals suspected of having the virus .
The U.S. has struggled to roll out testing nationwide , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 6,000 samples from Americans suspected of the coronavirus infection .
State laboratories now have the capacity to test about 75,000 people , Nancy Messonnier , director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , said in a briefing for reporters on Monday .
She said more testing capacity is expected soon from commercial diagnostic labs .
Trump has insisted that the burden for spurring the economy in response to coronavirus remains with the Federal Reserve , even as some economists have called for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ White House and Congress to act .


washingtonpost--2020-03-10--Business Groups to Press Trump for Virus Response to Curb Damage

Investors and the public are looking to the Trump administration for a more decisive response to the virus outbreak and to a sharp drop in oil prices touched off by a breakdown in talks between Russia and Saudi Arabia aimed at cutting output .
U.S. stocks plunged more than 7.5 % on Monday in the worst day on Wall Street since the financial crisis , crude sank 20 % and credit markets showed signs of intense strain .
“ What we ’ re looking at are things that are going to help employees , and things that are going to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a spokeswoman for the American Hotel and Lodging Association .
The group is pushing for expanded unemployment insurance to help blunt the impact of a potential long-term downturn that would lead to layoffs .
The chamber is exploring whether those who can ’ t work because of the virus should benefit from unemployment insurance , according to Neil Bradley , the group ’ s chief policy officer .
He said the plan could allow companies to respond “ more nimbly ” than by offering paid sick leave because it ’ s a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shared by the NRF .
But Democratic leaders in Congress have said they want to see paid sick leave and warned that any package should give priority to workers ’ needs over corporate interests .
They have also called for enhanced unemployment insurance .
Vice President Mike Pence is scheduled to meet with top executives of some of the largest insurance companies on Tuesday , according to two people familiar with the matter .
Invitations have been extended to UnitedHealth Group Inc. , Anthem Inc. , Blue Cross Blue Shield Association , Aetna @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Health Insurance Plans , a trade group for health insurers , according to one of the people .
Oil industry leaders and lobbyists are rushing to develop policy plans for dealing with a double whammy from the coronavirus -- which has spurred the first contraction in oil demand since 2009 -- and a crash in crude prices touched off by a breakdown in talks between OPEC and Russia over cutting output .
So far , oil companies and trade groups haven ’ t coalesced around ideas or sent a lot of them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said two industry lobbyists who asked for anonymity discussing internal deliberations .
Industry officials are still trying to figure out what levers can be pulled , including possible lending help , one of the people said .
The oil industry could benefit from broader relief efforts , pointed out Jim Lucier , of Capital Alpha Partners .
“ The same sorts of policies that are being considered for aviation may also apply to the oil industry , ” he said , such as delays to tax deadlines .
The travel industry , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ annually , has discussed requesting a bigger tax deduction for business entertainment , which was curtailed in Trump ’ s tax cuts , according to Tori Barnes , executive vice president of public affairs and policy at the U.S. Travel Association , which represents transportation , local attraction sites , tourism bureaus and other parts of the industry .
If access to certain ingredients imported from other countries is restricted , it could have a domino effect that affects the availability for consumers .
Procter & Gamble Co. alone has nearly 400 suppliers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that end up in 17,600 different products , according to Jon Moeller , a top executive at the company .


washingtonpost--2020-03-09--Analysis | The Last Place You’d Think to Hide in a Meltdown

Oil ’ s tailspin is bringing back harsh memories of early 2016 , when West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled below $ 30 a barrel , well beneath the breakeven point for many American producers .
U.S. junk bonds ’ credit spread over Treasuries shot as high as 8.4 % , almost doubling the five-year average .
The price of oil remains a major catalyst there .
When WTI falls below $ 50 a barrel , the correlation coefficient between that level and the spread of junk bonds more than doubles to 73 % , recent sensitivity analysis conducted by HSBC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and mining companies represent about 15 % of the high-yield cash bond market .
To make matters worse , a new host of fallen angels — investment-grade firms that get downgraded to junk — may make the high-yield bond universe a bit too crowded .
The energy sector comprises roughly a quarter of the $ 846 billion BBB rated corporate issues in the U.S .
When market sentiment is already weak , the last thing traders need is a flood of new supply .
Asia paints a different picture .
Whereas U.S. junk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from “ drill , baby , drill , ” Asia is all about build , baby , build .
Just look at who dominates issuance .
Even in the throes of the coronavirus outbreak , Asia ’ s dollar bond market didn ’ t freeze up , with more than $ 34 billion of deals in February , up a third from a year earlier .
Mainland companies continued to dominate — as they have in recent years — with 65 % of the total .
Chinese real-estate developers raised a whopping $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comparison , barely registered .
No surprise there : Most Asian countries are net importers .
In Asia , what really matters is Beijing ’ s liquidity stance — and there are signs that the coronavirus is ending China ’ s corporate deleveraging campaign , which began in late 2017 .
From benchmark rate cuts to re-lending facilities for small businesses , officials are tweaking all sorts of rules to ensure that China Inc. doesn ’ t face a liquidity crisis .
With many sales offices still closed , China ’ s highly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But are they any worse off now than , say , in late 2018 , when industry titans were wondering if they ’ d survive a harsh winter ?
At that point , Beijing had shut down the shadow financing channels that developers relied heavily upon for refinancing .
This month , however , Beijing substantially lowered the hurdle for onshore bond issuers , lifting restrictions that prevented companies with a ratio of outstanding bonds-to-equity of more than 40 % from raising money .
This directly benefits real-estate developers , which have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ land banks .
In the past , if the U.S. sneezed , Asia would catch a bad flu .
With China ’ s rise , markets in the region are slowly evolving .
Federal Reserve rate cuts now matter less than Beijing ’ s liquidity stance .
For once , Asia may just provide some diversification benefits .


washingtonpost--2020-03-09--Analysis | Mask or No Mask? This Is What the Virus Experts Say

In its Covid-19 guidance , the World Health Organization says healthy people need to wear masks only when taking care of those who are sick or suspected of infection .
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention “ does not recommend ” people who are well wear them , except in that circumstance .
U.S .
Surgeon General Jerome Adams went further , tweeting , “ Seriously people - STOP BUYING MASKS !
” Health-care providers who can ’ t get masks are at risk , he said , and that in turn raises the overall risk to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus to the uninfected and once sick can ’ t look after patients .
The Journal of the American Medical Association made the same point in an article aimed at the public .
It added that there ’ s no evidence masks protect ordinary people going about their daily business .
A few small studies have suggested that widespread use of face masks by the public may have reduced transmission in outbreaks of two other respiratory diseases , influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS .
However , the evidence is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ masks in short supply , the argument is that everyone is better off if they are reserved for those who actually require them and who can ’ t avoid exposure to people who are infected or might be .
Mainly if they are coughing or sneezing .
A cough is a common symptom of infection with the virus that causes Covid-19 , and the virus spreads in respiratory droplets -- spatters of liquid forcefully expelled with an infected person ’ s cough or sneeze .
These droplets are usually heavy enough to fall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Infection can occur if the droplets reach the mouth , nose or possibly the eye of someone nearby , either directly or from an unwashed hand that ’ s touched a contaminated object or surface .
When a patient diagnosed with Covid-19 is recovering at home , they and their caregivers are advised to wear masks when they are in the same room .
Officials in China , Hong Kong and Taiwan also recommend healthy people wear masks in certain other situations , such as in crowded places like buses or subway @ @ @ @ @ @ @ suspected of infection with the virus that causes Covid-19 be isolated and given a mask to wear .
This will usually be the type worn by surgeons -- the loose-fitting , one-size-fits-all kind that ’ s rectangular when flat .
This is to protect other people by trapping virus-containing respiratory droplets .
Health-care providers who deal with such patients or with confirmed cases are directed to wear a more sophisticated mask called a respirator .
These are designed to protect the user .
They come in different sizes so they can be fit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provide a tight seal .
That forces the user to pull air through the device ’ s filter rather than through gaps on the sides .
They are designed to keep out not only respiratory droplets but also smaller aerosolized particles that can carry infectious agents and float for a time through the air .
Airborne transmission has not been reported for Covid-19 , but there is a risk that certain medical procedures , such as tracheotomy and airway suction , can generate aerosols .
Respirators are uncomfortable to wear for a long @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and exert pressure on the face , and some people find they make it difficult to breathe , which can make them unsuitable for those with cardiac and respiratory conditions .
Adams said that people who aren ’ t trained in how to use them tend to touch their faces a lot , which could increase their chances of becoming infected with the coronavirus .
The WHO emphasizes that if you ’ re going to use a mask , it ’ s vital to do so correctly : put them on with clean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ touching the front and wash your hands afterward , never re-use single-use masks , and dispose of them properly .


washingtonpost--2020-03-09--Analysis | Gold, Bitcoin No Longer Frenemies in Coronavirus Era

One such occasion occurred last year , when the gold-Bitcoin two-step started up again in connection with a drop in the yuan and heightened risk over U.S.-China trade .
The correlation between Bitcoin and gold over the prior year was 0.496 , and had shot up to 0.827 , which is about as high as you could expect .
A correlation coefficient of 1 indicates that assets move in perfect lockstep .
Over the past two years this asset pair has charted a correlation of 0.616 .
( 1 ) Then the Covid-19 virus struck .
For a brief moment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a winner , climbing 43 % from the start of the year to as high as $ 10,471 on Feb. 13 .
That was in line with , albeit much sharper than , a rise in traditional havens gold and 10-year U.S. Treasuries .
Then it plunged .
By 10 a.m. Monday in Taipei , where I am based , Bitcoin was down 23 % from that high , including a 12 % drop in the past day .
But even without the most recent plunge , the cryptocurrency had fallen out of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a week or so , even as Treasuries kept climbing , and then fell under $ 9,500 and stayed there .
Right now , it ’ s hovering around $ 8,000 .
Gold faced a similar sell-off , but that weakness lasted only two days before it shot up again .
The precious metal is now trading at the highest level in more than seven years .
As a result , the correlation between gold and Bitcoin has flipped to -0.22 over the past month .
This tells me that at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trade cryptocurrencies — are feeling far more jittery than they did in the past .
Maybe it ’ s because previous shocks seemed so esoteric — after all , Britain exiting the European Union and a superpower trade war were events of little direct or daily impact .
This time , though , the spread of Covid-19 has people quarantined in their homes and panic-purchasing basic necessities .
That ’ s made the current crisis more real , more threatening , and more scary , sending investors chasing after an asset that ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and belief in a utopian digital future .
( 2 ) I wouldn ’ t be so bold as to suggest that Bitcoin won ’ t rise again .
But just one month of data is warning enough that maybe investors can ’ t rely on it to always be their haven in desperate times .


washingtonpost--2020-03-09--Analysis | Why the OPEC-Russia Blowup Sparked All-Out Oil Price War

Russia had joined forces with OPEC in 2016 , along with nine other non-member countries , and the alliance controlled almost half of the world ’ s oil production .
The “ OPEC+ ” pact led to a resurgence of the cartel , which wields immense power over the world ’ s most critical commodity .
Russia stunned oil traders when it refused to go along with production cuts pushed by Saudi Arabia at a March 6 meeting in Vienna .
The kingdom -- OPEC ’ s biggest producer and its driving force -- wanted to trim output further to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ energy demand .
Saudi Arabia responded aggressively just hours later : Its state-owned oil behemoth said it would reverse course on March 8 , open the taps and slash crude prices .
Talks between Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries broke down because the country didn ’ t want to be strong-armed into further cuts to its lucrative oil production .
It complained that the OPEC+ deal had aided America ’ s shale industry .
Russia was also increasingly angry with the willingness of U.S. President Donald Trump to employ energy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It was irked by the use of U.S. sanctions to prevent the completion of a pipeline linking Siberia ’ s gas fields with Germany , known as Nord Stream 2 .
The Kremlin was reluctant to cede further market share to U.S. shale drillers -- known as frackers -- that have been adding millions of barrels of oil to the global markets .
An attack on shale has been tried before : When the new technique was expanding in 2014 , Saudi Arabia ’ s strategy was to flood the market , expecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the new competition .
As shale producers found cheaper ways to operate and a global supply glut dragged on , OPEC then returned to its traditional tool of constraining output , sending oil to a four-year high of more than $ 85 a barrel by mid-2018 .
The victory proved self-defeating .
Higher prices re-invigorated U.S. fracking , propelling the U.S. to overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world ’ s No .
1 crude producer .
Many drillers in Texas and other shale regions look vulnerable , as they ’ re @ @ @ @ @ @ @ natural gas prices .
That remains to be seen -- the two sides could always return to the negotiating table .
In the short run , Russia is in a good position to withstand a price slump .
Its government budget breaks even at a price of $ 42 a barrel and it has squirreled away billions of dollars in a rainy-day fund .
Saudi Arabia , which is almost entirely dependent on oil to fund lavish government spending , holds about $ 500 billion in foreign currency reserves to cushion the blow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The kingdom ’ s currency , the riyal , has been pegged to the U.S. dollar for more than three decades , providing economic and financial stability .
OPEC has a built-in competitive advantage , since its Middle Eastern members can produce crude at about a third of the cost of U.S. shale .
Such a dramatic crash in the price of oil , if it were sustained , would savage national budgets of petro-states from Venezuela to Iran , threatening to upend politics around the world .
To policy makers , volatile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they try to shield economies from the impact of the coronavirus epidemic .
There are winners from rock-bottom oil prices -- among them China , the world ’ s largest oil importer , whose recovery from the virus will be key for the global economy .
The U.S. -- once a beneficiary of low oil prices -- is now an exporter rather than a buyer .
Sudden surges in oil prices are feared because of the way they could jack up costs across the global economy and slow economic growth .
Now a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the virus is enduring another sort of oil shock .


washingtonpost--2020-03-09--Oil Price War, ECB Firing Blanks, Japanese Fiscal Aid: Eco Day

• Among them , Christine Lagarde .
The first crisis of the new European Central Bank President ’ s tenure will force her to to decide this week whether to fire one of the few monetary-policy bullets she has left • The two new leaders of the British economy , Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak and the next Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey , inherit the biggest economic threat for a decade .
Sunak signaled fiscal rules could be ditched as he prepares a package to tackle the crisis • The U.K. is the biggest country yet to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the pay gap between women and men • Saudi Arabia plans to boost oil output next month to well above 10 million barrels a day , as the kingdom responds aggressively to the collapse of its OPEC+ alliance with Russia • Japan ’ s government will offer financial assistance to small businesses as part of a second round of emergency measures against the coronavirus , Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said • In any normal year , China ’ s political class would be convening around now inside Beijing ’ s Great Hall of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s targets for economic growth and the policies to make it happen .
Instead , the Chinese capital is hushed • Italy introduced far-reaching measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak , including a near-complete travel ban for about a quarter of the population .
Yet , it is unclear how strictly they would be enforced • China ’ s exports fell more than expected in the first two months of this year as the coronavirus outbreak led to extended holidays , depressed factory output , and blocked transport and movement • Australia ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economy against the impact of the coronavirus may run as high A $ 10 billion ( $ 6.6 billion ) , as it seeks to protect jobs and company cash flows • The U.S. and Europe face the “ distinct possibility ” of a technical recession in the first half of the year as the coronavirus outbreak damps demand and supply and drives investors to safe havens , according to Pimco ’ s Joachim Fels • Lebanon is about to enter the crucial first phase of talks aimed at renegotiating its $ 30 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weekend it won ’ t pay dollar debt coming due Monday


washingtonpost--2020-03-09--Analysis | Why It Matters That the FRA-OIS Spread Is Widening

Right now it boils down to deteriorating market sentiment about credit and recession risks rather than a genuine fear of a pullback in funding markets .
The widening of the FRA-OIS spread -- seen by many as a proxy for risks in the banking sector -- reflects concern that companies will struggle as the new coronavirus exacts its toll on the economy .
That makes interbank lending more risky , since banks stand to suffer losses if companies fail .
The perceived added risk means banks will demand higher interest payments to lend to one another -- hence the increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is also a gauge of market expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate actions .
The spread has approached the levels in 2011 of close to 60 , but is nowhere near the financial crisis peak of around 170 in November 2008 .
Strategists at Natwest Markets are concerned that there are “ skeletons in closets ” they may not be aware of that come out in times like this , particularly in small-to medium-sized business that may not have two months of cash to ride out declining sales .
A forward rate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fixed interest payments for variable ones , or vice versa .
The key rate for U.S. markets is the three-month London interbank offered rate , or Libor , in U.S. dollars .
The benchmark is derived by major banks submitting rates based on transactions that are compiled to establish benchmark for five different currencies across seven different loan periods .
Those benchmarks underpin interest rates on trillions of dollars of financial instruments and products from student and car loans to mortgages and credit cards .
The Overnight Index Swap rate is calculated from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ floating-rate cash flows .
Some of the most commonly used swap rates relate to the Federal Reserve ’ s main interest-rate target , and those are regarded as proxies for where markets see U.S. central bank policy headed at various points in the future .
It ’ s regarded as the markets ’ measure of how expensive or cheap it will be for banks to borrow in the future , as shown by Libor , relative to a risk-free rate , the kind that ’ s paid by highly rated sovereign borrowers such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spread provides another snapshot of how the market is viewing credit conditions because of the fact that traders are betting on where Libor-OIS -- its underlying spread -- will be .