washingtonpost--2020-02-06--Analysis | If the Tech Supply Chain Must Face a Pandemic, Now’s the Time

Chinese authorities , seeking to spread the wealth and develop the hinterland , had been urging companies like Foxconn to move inland , but they were reticent .
The political pressure brought on by the suicides forced Foxconn ’ s hand , and the following year it shelled out a record $ 3.2 billion in capital expenditures , setting up shop 1,000 miles ( 1,600 kilometers ) away in Zhengzhou , Henan Province .
The great inland migration was underway .
But more than that , the decentralization of Foxconn , and with it the global technology supply chain , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While Zhengzhou became the largest iPhone manufacturing hub , the broader impact of that shift was to ensure that no single site truly dominated electronics assembly .
Today , Shenzhen shares the workload of supplying to Apple with more than 30 other manufacturing sites around the country .
Foxconn , which operates under its flagship Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. , also supplies Apple from plants in Texas and Vietnam .
It also has sites in more than a dozen countries including Mexico and the Czech Republic for clients including Dell Inc. , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while Foxconn announced this week that it would quarantine workers returning to its Zhengzhou facility after the Lunar New Year break once production resumes on Feb. 10 , it still has dozens of choices .
Not all factories will be immediately equipped to assemble iPhones — some merely make lower-level components — yet the broad array of options means that Apple and Foxconn no longer have all their eggs in the Shenzhen basket .
What ’ s more , China itself is becoming less important to Foxconn , Apple and the broader technology @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Minister Narendra Modi of India have spurred the manufacture of smartphones locally .
Beyond the iPhone , which is made in Chennai , Chinese smartphone brand Xiaomi Corp. is among those that are building devices outside of China .
Other Taiwan companies — most electronics are made by Taiwanese — have set up shop elsewhere in Asia , with some even bringing production back home .
Many blamed , or credited , the U.S.-China trade war spurred by President Donald Trump for companies moving away .
That ’ s only partially true .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ seen the need to reduce reliance on China many years earlier and did so quietly .
In fact , by one measure , Foxconn ’ s China presence peaked eight years ago .
Since 2012 , its non-current assets in China have declined at least 25 % .
( 1 ) The biggest winner has been the U.S. , which experienced a 10-fold increase in the same figure , mostly due to an influx of investment in 2018 as part of Foxconn ’ s pledge to expand in America .
To be frank @ @ @ @ @ @ @ assembled in the U.S. at scale anytime soon , but this decentralization means it ’ s at least feasible .
To be sure , China is still important .
In the past decade , more midlevel suppliers such as those that make components like camera lenses and touch-screen sensors are from China .
But in many ways this has served to further diversify the supply chain away from the small collection of non-Chinese vendors Apple relied on previously .
The result is not only a geographic dilution but a far broader range of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from .
As the world grapples with the human and health impact of the Wuhan coronavirus and speculate about its impact on business , the tech supply chain truly is less vulnerable than it has been in the recent past .


washingtonpost--2020-02-07--Analysis | A Five-Decade Rivalry Is Playing Out at OPEC+

Russia has its own immediate reasons for standing pat .
The country ’ s oil output last year hit its highest level since the days of the Soviet Union , reaching around 11.25 million barrels a day .
What ’ s more , it ’ s now in a situation that historically only Saudi Arabia and a few other Gulf countries have enjoyed , with spare capacity on hand — in the region of 500,000 barrels at day , enough to give it a role as a swing producer for the world .
Oil played an under-appreciated role in the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the USSR ’ s industrial and agricultural economies started to falter in the 1970s , it was an oil boom that kept the nation ’ s head above water .
Buoyed by the sharp rise in prices as a result of the 1973 and 1979 oil crises , the country opened up vast petroleum reserves in Siberia .
The hard currency earned paid for grain imports to feed a burgeoning urban population , as well as funding its ruinous war in Afghanistan .
That spending was largely financed by Saudi Arabian restraint .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ as a result of the new , higher prices and supply from non-Gulf producers surging , the kingdom cut output by nearly two-thirds through the early 1980s in an attempt to re-balance the market and lift prices .
Something had to give — and the result was disastrous for Moscow .
“ The timeline of the collapse of the Soviet Union can be traced to September 13 , 1985 , ” according to Yegor Gaidar , the economist and politician who drove many of Russia ’ s wrenching reforms in the early 1990s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s oil minister , Sheikh Ahmad Zaki Yamani , abandoned the policy of supporting prices and elected to flood the market instead .
Saudi Arabia , as the lowest-cost producer , was able to survive .
As my colleague Clara Ferreira Marques wrote recently , the high-cost USSR was dealt one of many mortal blows .
“ Oil production in Saudi Arabia increased fourfold , while oil prices collapsed by approximately the same amount in real terms ” after the Saudi move , Gaidar later wrote .
“ As a result , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ per year , money without which the country simply could not survive.
” From one angle , the past 30 years of Russian energy policy has been a long , slow grind back to the position it enjoyed in 1985 .
Shorn of its oilfields in newly independent republics in the Caucasus and central Asia , it took until 2007 for output to move above 10 million barrels a day again .
Nowadays , even exports are level-pegging with those from Saudi Arabia , despite Russia ’ s far bigger domestic economy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ have turned .
While Saudi Arabia can still boast some of the lowest production costs in the world , its bloated spending means that it needs a price of about $ 85 a barrel to balance its budget , compared with about $ 50 in Russia .
Neither country is a major debtor , but Saudi Arabia ’ s borrowing , projected by the International Monetary Fund to hit 41 % of output by 2024 , is far more of a burden than Russia ’ s .
Like Russia in the 1980s , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , depending on imports for 88 % of its food supplies .
Riyadh even has a military quagmire in Yemen to parallel the Soviet Union ’ s disastrous foray into Afghanistan .
There remains a good chance that Moscow will eventually bow to the wishes of OPEC members and cut production .
As my colleague Liam Denning has written , Russia is famous for falling short on its promises of output restraint — indeed , it regularly makes noises about quitting the OPEC+ arrangement altogether .
Still , at current prices of $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even Russia could do with more of a fiscal cushion .
Both nations will then face a deeper problem .
While Moscow and Riyadh were focused on their unhealthy relationship , the U.S. has in recent years overtaken both countries to become the world ’ s leading producer .
Worse still , oil demand itself is fast approaching a plateau .
The world ’ s energy markets will change drastically over the coming decade .
This is no time for two of the biggest producers to be consumed by a decades-old rivalry .

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washingtonpost--2020-02-07--Analysis | Coronavirus Hits Oil’s Weakest Credits Hardest

Immunity is bolstered best with a healthy ( or healthy-ish ) balance sheet .
On Thursday evening , Parsley Energy Inc. priced eight-year bonds at 4.125 % .
As exploration and production companies go , Parsley ’ s leverage counts as relatively OK .
It ended September with net debt of just under 1.9 times trailing Ebitda , and Fitch Ratings has it just inside investment grade .
It is taking the opportunity to raise longer-dated money with a lower coupon to take out 2024 paper costing 6.25 % a year , albeit paying a hefty premium of almost 5 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Parsley is a relative rarity .
Energy ’ s high-yield market is largely closed , with the option-adjusted spread on the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Energy Index back above 700 basis points .
The lowest-rated energy credits are utter pariahs , with CCC-rated bonds sporting an average spread of almost 2,000 basis points , according to CreditSights , versus an ex-energy average of about 860 points , which seems almost welcoming by comparison .
This split between the sort-of-haves and the most-definitely-have-nots is reflected in stocks too .
I wrote back in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ differentiating factor in an E & P sector coming under increasing pressure .
The new year ’ s bout of fear and loathing has exacerbated that .
Here ’ s how the sector has done , split by levels of indebtedness ( 1 ) : The message from the stock market , and Parsley ’ s opportunism , is clear : Any fracker wanting to survive 2020 had best ditch the freewheeling habits of yesteryear and hunker down .
( 1 ) The four groups are : as follows .
Very high leverage @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comprising Antero Resources , Chesapeake Energy , Comstock Resources , EQT , Laredo Petroleum , Oasis Petroleum , Range Resources .
High leverage ( 2-3 x Ebitda ) comprising Apache , Callon Petroleum , CNX Resources , Matador Resources , QEP Resources , Southwestern Energy .
Moderate leverage ( 1-2x Ebitda ) comprising Berry Petroleum , Centennial Resource Development , Cimarex Energy , Continental Resources , Diamondback Energy , Diversified Oil & Gas , Jagged Peak Energy , Marathon Oil , Murphy Oil , Northern Oil and Gas , Parsley Energy , PDC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Talos Energy , W & T Offshore , WPX Energy .
Low leverage ( This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners .
Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy , mining and commodities .
He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal ’ s Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times ’ Lex column .
He was also an investment banker .


washingtonpost--2020-02-07--Analysis | What You Need to Know About China’s Virus Outbreak

It has been described as “ insidious ” because a large portion of infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , potentially spreading it to others .
In just two months , the number of confirmed cases surpassed the 8,096 SARS cases recorded in that entire epidemic , which ran more than a year .
Some disease modeling experts project there are likely 75,000 or more actual cases , as accurate counts from overwhelmed areas -- especially Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province -- are difficult to come by , partly due to a shortage of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apparent mortality rate was about 2 % , lower than for SARS , but such numbers are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
The World Health Organization says that new strains emerge periodically around the globe , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
They tend to morph and mutate , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can change the longer they circulate in humans .
It ’ s genetically similar to the SARS virus but appears milder in terms of severity and fatality rate .
With SARS , about 9 % of reported cases died .
A related virus , known as MERS-CoV , that ’ s been spreading since 2012 , has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded .
By contrast , an estimated 50 million people died in the 1918 influenza pandemic that had a case-fatality ratio of less than 5 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the world ’ s population .
Most likely by coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that are emitted when an infected person breathes , talks , coughs or sneezes .
These can be transferred directly to someone else in close proximity or via hands and surfaces .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the virus can spread through feces or farther through the air in tiny particles known as aerosols .
People who are still incubating the virus and show no symptoms may spread it .
There have been reports in China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10-year-old boy who apparently passed the virus to family members .
However , asymptomatic transmission is unlikely to become a major factor in the spread , Anthony Fauci , director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the U.S. , said Jan. 28 .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people a person who is infected is likely to infect .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
The WHO gives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for 2019-nCoV .
At the high end , that makes it similar to SARS and more infectious than flu .
A group from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing estimated the number to be 4.08 .
Infections appear to cause a mild illness in children , adolescents and younger adults , and more severe disease in older people .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , dry cough and tiredness -- but not the sneezing and runny nose typical of a cold .
Studies suggest the virus invades cells in the lower @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the lungs , causing difficulty breathing and the inflammation and congestion associated with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a potentially fatal complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Septic shock , respiratory failure and the failure of other organs have also been seen .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with underlying illnesses such as cardiovascular disease .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million .
Early attention focused on a seafood @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is even more closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats than it is to the SARS coronavirus .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
There is always concern when a new pathogen emerges in people because they typically lack immunity to it and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those not seen in humans before , represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , like SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
Relatively few cases have been reported outside China .
But in Hubei , thousands of people have been hospitalized in isolation wards and hundreds are being treated in intensive care units , creating what officials there have described as an “ extreme , severe and abrupt public health crisis.
” A Wuhan hospital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ staff and other patients , according to a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association .
China ’ s government imposed a quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in the region , a travel ban covering in excess of 50 million people .
New hospitals were built from the ground up in days .
Patients were isolated to prevent any spread .
Health officials are looking for , screening and monitoring people the patients had contact with .
School holidays have been extended and work-from-home orders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outbreak a global health emergency , a designation that can help mobilize international responses .
Anyone caught spreading misinformation was subject to criminal charges in some Asian countries .
The U.S. State Department has advised people not to travel to China and said those already in the country should consider leaving .
Hong Kong , the international financial center that functions with some autonomy from China , announced its own travel restrictions from the mainland .
The U.S. , Australia , India and other countries were denying or restricting entry for non-citizens arriving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus ’ s spread , although the WHO has called such measures unnecessary .


washingtonpost--2020-02-07--Analysis | France’s Richest Man Gets a Free Lunch From the ECB

Two of the five euro tranches were placed at negative yields , meaning investors are paying single A-rated LVMH to borrow money .
Arnault ’ s expectations back in November for yields from the sale of “ between 0 % and 1 % ” have been surpassed .
Even the 11-year tranche has a coupon of just 0.45 % .
M & A has never been cheaper .
France ’ s richest man can thank the European Central Bank for this state of affairs .
The restart of its 189 billion-euro Corporate Sector Purchasing Program has driven credit spreads ever @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to lessen the funding costs of European companies — and local subsidiaries of global firms — to make it easier for them to invest , it may not have been meaning to help a French luxury behemoth snap up an American jewelry icon .
It ’ s almost certain that a bond of this size will have been bought by the ECB ( or will be picked at some point in the near future ) .
Often the bank takes up to 20 % of eligible issues , and there has a been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Quantitative Easing program kicked back into life .
There was another jumbo corporate sale in Europe this week by U.S. Media giant Comcast Corp. , which issued notes worth 3 billion euros and 1.4 billion pounds .
This type of sale is known as a “ reverse Yankee , ” where an American company issues debt , but not in dollars .
Maybe we could refer to LVMH ’ s use of dirt cheap funding in its home currency to buy an American company as a “ reverse , reverse Yankee.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
International Business Machines Corp. also pulled off a bumper bond deal in Europe earlier in the week ; the euro credit market is truly open for business .
Although January was a record month for issuance , it was dominated by financials and sovereign , supranational and agency ( SSA ) issuers .
Credit spreads have now also moved close to their tightest ever levels , amid the general flight-to-quality sparked by the Coronavirus outbreak .
It ’ s just a shame that most of these jumbo deals are being used to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than spurring an investment boom , or local European mergers and acquisitions that would help the continent ’ s moribund corporate environment .
Still , the ECB is doing what it can ; if the financing heads over the Atlantic sometimes , that ’ s the price you pay for the ocean of quantitative easing that ’ s been made available .
No wonder corporates everywhere are filling their boots .
Marcus Ashworth is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering European markets .
He spent three decades in the banking industry , most recently @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in London .


washingtonpost--2020-02-09--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Spreading Coronavirus

It has been described as “ insidious ” because a large portion of infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , potentially spreading it to others .
In two months , the number of confirmed cases and deaths surpassed those in the entire SARS epidemic .
As of early February the apparent mortality rate was about 2 % , lower than for SARS , but such numbers are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak .
Some disease modeling experts project there are likely anywhere from 75,000 to hundreds of thousands more actual infections , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ especially Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province -- are difficult to come by , partly due to a shortage of tests .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
The World Health Organization says that new strains emerge periodically around the globe , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
They tend to morph and mutate , which means the level of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they circulate in humans .
It ’ s genetically similar to the SARS virus but appears milder in terms of severity and fatality rate .
With SARS , about 9 % of reported cases died .
A related virus , known as MERS-CoV , that ’ s been spreading since 2012 , has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded .
By contrast , an estimated 50 million people died in the 1918 influenza pandemic that had a case-fatality ratio of less than 5 % , but infected up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s population .
Most likely by coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that are emitted when an infected person breathes , talks , coughs or sneezes .
These can be transferred directly to someone else in close proximity or via hands and surfaces .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the virus can spread through feces or farther through the air in tiny particles known as aerosols .
People who are still incubating the virus and show no symptoms may spread it .
There have been reports in China , including that of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ passed the virus to family members .
However , asymptomatic transmission is unlikely to become a major factor in the spread , Anthony Fauci , director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the U.S. , said Jan. 28 .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people a person who is infected is likely to infect .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
The WHO gives a preliminary range of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the high end , that makes it similar to SARS and more infectious than flu .
A group from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing estimated the number to be 4.08 .
Infections appear to cause a mild illness in children , adolescents and younger adults , and more severe disease in older people .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , dry cough and tiredness -- but not the sneezing and runny nose typical of a cold .
Studies suggest the virus invades cells in the lower respiratory tract and migrates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difficulty breathing and the inflammation and congestion associated with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a potentially fatal complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Septic shock , respiratory failure and the failure of other organs have also been seen .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with underlying illnesses such as cardiovascular disease .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is even more closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats than it is to the SARS coronavirus .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
There is always concern when a new pathogen emerges in people because they typically lack immunity to it and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ humans before , represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , like SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
Unlike SARS , relatively few cases have been reported outside mainland China .
But in Hubei , thousands of people have been hospitalized in isolation wards and hundreds are being treated in intensive care units , creating what officials there have described as an “ extreme , severe and abrupt public health crisis.
” A Wuhan hospital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ staff and other patients , according to a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association .
China ’ s government imposed a quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in the region , a travel ban covering in excess of 50 million people .
New hospitals were built from the ground up in days , and the production of medical equipment ramped up .
Patients were isolated to prevent any spread .
Health officials are looking for , screening and monitoring people the patients had contact with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work-from-home orders issued .
The WHO has declared the outbreak a global health emergency , a designation that can help mobilize international responses .
Anyone caught spreading misinformation was subject to criminal charges in some Asian countries .
The U.S. State Department has advised people not to travel to China and said those already in the country should consider leaving .
Hong Kong , the international financial center that functions with some autonomy from China , announced its own travel restrictions from the mainland .
The U.S. , Australia , India and other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ non-citizens arriving from China in an attempt to stop the virus ’ s spread , although the WHO has called such measures unnecessary .


washingtonpost--2020-02-09--Analysis | Paralysis Shows OPEC Is Too Unwieldy

A week ago Saudi Arabia , OPEC ’ s biggest producer , was pressing for meetings scheduled for March to be brought forward so everyone could agree on deeper output cuts to halt the slide in oil prices triggered by the outbreak of a new coronavirus in China .
Russia , the largest of the wider group ’ s non-OPEC members , was pushing back , arguing that more time was needed to assess its impact on oil demand .
Since then , the cartel ’ s Joint Technical Committee met over three days and put forward a proposal to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the second quarter of the year .
That proposal is still sitting on the table waiting for action .
Russia said it would respond to the suggestion in days , but the world is still waiting .
Oil ministers from the combined 23 countries have yet to agree if they will meet before March .
As each day passes , there is less point in moving the gathering .
But if the group doesn ’ t act soon , it will find the decision taken out of its hands .
Having floated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ need to deliver .
Anything less will likely send prices down again .
The thirst for oil in China , the world ’ s biggest crude importer , is drying up rapidly as the response to the virus outbreak has seen industry shuttered and travel restricted .
Data intelligence firm Kpler notes that imports averaged about 8 million barrels a day in the week through Jan. 29 , down 27 % from the first half of the month .
The Lunar New Year holiday may have contributed to that slowdown , but the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % , according to people with inside knowledge of the country ’ s energy industry , and China ’ s refiners have cut the amount of crude they are processing by at least 2 million barrels a day .
Consultants have slashed forecasts for oil demand growth for China and for the world as a whole .
Energy Aspects now see China ’ s demand falling year on year in the current quarter and no increase at all in oil use worldwide .
The three big oil forecasting agencies will publish their monthly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sure to be cut .
If OPEC+ doesn ’ t agree output cuts , China may force them upon it .
Persian Gulf producers are currently taking nominations from buyers for the volumes they want in March .
China seems to be pushing the flexibility of its term contracts to the hilt , seeking reduced volumes from all of its main suppliers .
The four big Persian Gulf exporters could see requests from China down by 10 % .
That would cost them more than half a billion dollars a month at current @ @ @ @ @ @ @ barrel — no wonder they ’ re in a panic .
Their added worry is that there are other forces at work that could drive up the global supply of oil in the coming weeks .
More than 1 million barrels a day of shut-in production from Libya could return rapidly if a United Nations conference in Cairo later today brokers a deal that allows the country ’ s ports to reopen .
Meanwhile , OPEC ’ s attempt to talk oil prices higher isn ’ t working .
In early January , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
By the final week of the month it was trading in a range between $ 58 and $ 60 a barrel as the group hemmed and hawed about bringing forward the March meeting .
Last week , as the OPEC+ technical committee met but the prospect of a ministerial gathering receded , prices took another step down to between $ 54 and $ 57 a barrel .
If China asks for less oil , or tensions in Libya ease , prices are likely take another tumble next week .
The expansion of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ layer of complexity to the decision-making process while contributing little in the way of real output cuts .
Several non-OPEC members , including Mexico and Azerbaijan , are merely dressing up natural output declines as cuts , while others are ignoring their pledges .
Russia remains a difficult friend , as my colleague David Fickling notes here .
Wider membership is undermining the producer group ’ s ability to respond quickly to crises like the coronavirus .
Let ’ s be honest , the only countries that really count in terms of being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shortage or being willing and able to cut production in a glut are Saudi Arabia , the United Arab Emirates and ( perhaps ) Kuwait .
A smaller , more focused group of countries whose actions can have a an immediate impact may serve as a better regulator of oil market balance than an expanding gaggle of small producers who add little but noise .


washingtonpost--2020-03-31--Analysis | Build More Emergency Hospitals. And Keep Them Running

These facilities will be crucial if countries want to avoid overwhelming critical care units amid the current wave of coronavirus cases .
That ’ s not the only advantage , though : If they ’ re kept in reserve for a sustained period and deployed alongside widespread testing , they could help shorten the amount of time we ’ re locked up at home over the coming months .
It ’ s hard to think in the long term when thousands of people are dying every day , but right now we need to consider how the world will get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ either a vaccine is developed or the majority of the world ’ s population is infected and herd immunity starts to kick in , there ’ s likely to be repeated waves of infection .
In previous crises , such as the 1918 influenza pandemic , subsequent waves were often more deadly than the initial outbreak .
The approach that ’ s been adopted almost universally to cope with the coming surge of hospitalizations is to “ flatten the curve ” — closing schools and businesses , and banning public and social gatherings @ @ @ @ @ @ @ slow the viral spread .
A lower , longer peak of infections could ideally keep the number of people needing hospital admission below the bed space available in critical care .
That would avoid the grim situation in places such as Wuhan and Italy , where people died at home because there was no room for them in the wards .
An equally important benefit could come later , though .
By raising the health system ’ s capacity to deal with a surge of severe infections , such facilities could also mean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out of the house a little more over the next year or so .
A study released last week by researchers at the Harvard T.H .
Chan School of Public Health shows how .
( The paper hasn ’ t been peer-reviewed and published in a medical journal , so should be taken as suggestive evidence rather than gospel . )
If U.S. critical care capacity is assumed to be around its current levels of 0.89 free beds per 10,000 adults , then officials could keep the epidemic within bed limits by locking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ every time infections rose above 37.5 cases per 10,000 people , and opening things up again every time they fell below 10 .
That would save lives , but at enormous economic cost .
The measures would need to be in place between 25 % and 70 % of the time , giving little scope for the economy to emerge from its current funk until the middle of next year at the earliest .
Doubling intensive care capacity , however , could knock months off the lockdown period , by making it easier @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a surge of sick people and allowing infection rates to drift a little higher before we ’ re driven back into our homes .
While a doubling of intensive care beds sounds ambitious , it may be well within the bounds of the mobilization that ’ s currently underway .
Open critical care capacity in the U.S. is typically equivalent to roughly a third of the country ’ s 80,000-odd adult critical beds , falling to about 10 % to 20 % of the total during a bad flu season .
One 2015 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of about 18,900 spare beds could be expanded to 135,000 in a crisis , and to 52,400 in a less-severe emergency .
Finding staff and equipment to fit out the additional facilities is , if anything , the greater challenge — though even there , we ’ re not entirely out of options .
Hiring retired and student doctors , and making it easier for those currently in the workforce to practice outside their specialty or across state lines , would help expand the critical care workforce , as my colleague Max Nisen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ production of ventilators and personal protective equipment takes time , some lower-tech solutions may work in a pinch .
The U.K. is procuring CPAP machines like those commonly used by sleep apnea patients , for instance , after Italian doctors found they did the job of more costly ventilators in all but the most severe cases .
Almost every country has messed up its initial response to the coronavirus and is facing alarming shortages of hospital capacity as a result .
The fact we ’ re insufficiently prepared now , though , doesn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ignore planning for how things will look in two , six or 12 months .
The fight against this pandemic is a marathon , not a sprint .


washingtonpost--2020-05-07--Analysis | Here Are the States Where Reopening Is Riskiest

The case against loosening restrictions before outbreaks are well-controlled is dead simple : When there is a higher base level of infection in a population , it takes fewer interactions between individuals to spread the virus .
That makes every step taken to mitigate the spread less effective , and every day that people spend in public more dangerous .
When testing , contact tracing and the ability to isolate infected individuals is limited , as continues to be the case in large parts of the U.S. , the risk is higher still .
There ’ s a great deal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Covid-19 hits some areas harder than others .
Spread is determined by a combination of factors that includes initial seeding , density , demographics , public health response and plain luck .
Some states that never issued statewide stay-at-home orders , or put them in place late in the pandemic , have avoided major outbreaks , while others are now seeing many new infections .
However , as states allow renewed activity , the harsh reality of viral spread will come into play .
States to be most concerned about are those where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ growing or elevated , and testing is limited .
Nebraska , Iowa , Indiana , Colorado and Kansas all arguably fall into this category .
Colorado at least has seen a reduction in average new cases over the past week or so , but because it remains close to its peak and testing is not up to speed , safety in reopening is not a sure thing .
States are moving forward in various ways .
Nebraska and Iowa never had statewide stay-at-home orders , and both are now allowing many businesses to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Colorado are keeping many retailers and restaurants closed for in-store business .
Kansas is taking a middle path , allowing restaurants to open dining rooms as long as they maintain distancing , but keeping gyms and personal service businesses closed .
Time will tell if this variation leads to diverging outcomes , but the virus is poised to punish incautious moves .
None of the states in this chart are above average in either the number of tests being conducted per capita or in the rate of positive results — which indicates of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A high percentage of positive tests suggests that many cases are going undetected , and that a testing capacity isn ’ t meeting the need , let alone providing the kind of expanded surveillance that should accompany reopening efforts .
Other reopening states have high numbers of new cases that may be explained at least partially by comparatively good testing rates .
These include Mississippi , Tennessee and , to a milder extent , Utah .
Texas continues to have a comparatively small number of Covid-19 cases per capita , but it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as it begins to reopen .
South Carolina , Georgia , Alabama and North Dakota have managed to stay on a plateau , but not to reach the other side .
Missouri ’ s infection rate was on a good trajectory for weeks , but it ’ s beginning to rise just as the state is allowing even large venues to reopen .
Starting off in a better position are Maine and Oklahoma , both at relatively low plateaus with positive-test rates that suggest they ’ re not missing a lot of cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have achieved a reasonably sustained decline in new cases , though South Dakota ’ s especially high number of per capita cases may yet seed renewed growth .


washingtonpost--2020-04-06--Analysis | Who’s to Blame for Fallen Angels and Sinking Demons?

Already , Western Asset Management Co. , one of the biggest U.S. bond managers , has asked for a waiver from a California public pension fund seeking extra time to get its books in order after two major downgrades pushed the fund over its limit for junk-rated holdings .
In the first quarter , fallen angels ’ debt outstanding came to about $ 150 billion , exceeding the peak reached after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Ratings for leveraged loans could also turn into a big headache .
Most managers of collateralized loan obligations , which package these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are mandated to limit the weighting of CCC rated issues to 7.5 % .
No one wants a fire sale .
More pain is in store .
Over the next six months , another $ 555 billion worth of angels ’ debt outstanding might fall , amounting to about 15.7 % of the BBB bucket , estimates Goldman Sachs Group Inc. That ’ s in part because agencies have been slashing their company outlooks .
Roughly half of investment-grade bonds are in this rating category .
If you ’ re worried about fallen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ call sinking demons , issues that get downgraded from the lowest B notch to CCC .
There are plenty of them in the $ 1.5 trillion leveraged loan market : About 30 % of such loans rated by Moody ’ s Investors Service Inc. are in the B category , versus 12 % in 2008 .
Sinking demons could push the percentage of CCC issuers beyond the 16 % peak recorded in 2009 , Moody ’ s warned .
Granted , agencies have a moral hazard : They get paid by the issuers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ responsible for so many fallen angels and sinking demons ?
As I noted last week , the leveraged loan space has ballooned over the past decade , largely because the savvy private equity industry has been stuffing this market with low-quality , covenant-lite issues just a notch shy of CCC .
The Federal Reserve is clearly worried .
On March 23 , it established a facility to buy corporate bonds issued by investment-grade U.S. companies , though it ’ s still loath to make direct loans to ones in distress .
Since the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the central bank hasn ’ t been allowed to take big credit risks and can only lend with a high degree of protection , either buying assets super cheap or being backed by the Treasury ’ s money .
So passing down lower borrowing costs through the pipeline of investment-grade corporate bonds might seem like a good idea .
But is it ?
By subsidizing the most solvent lenders in the system , the Fed is once again artificially pushing down yields and forcing investors further along the risk curve .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Fed — more than ratings agencies — is the reason so many investment-grade bonds are now clustering at the category ’ s very low end .
Now that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell seems to have put out the wildfire , we are starting to see inexplicable risk-taking behavior again .
Last week , Carnival Corp. ’ s $ 4 billion new bonds were gobbled up , even though it operates the Diamond Princess cruise that had more than 700 infected coronavirus patients .
It ’ s easy to point fingers at ratings agencies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t move the pricing needle unless they downgrade by more than one notch , or pencil in a fallen angel or sinking demon .
What matters is the Fed .
Now if this were China , the government would start giving “ window guidance ” and telling ratings agencies to stop publishing these aggressive downgrades .
Thankfully , the Fed isn ’ t Big Brother .
But keeping would-be angels on life support will bedevil any much-needed reckoning in the credit market .


washingtonpost--2020-04-06--Fed to Provide Financing for Small-Business Stimulus Loans

The $ 349 billion program is a centerpiece to the $ 2.2 trillion legislation that President Donald Trump signed into law March 23 .
Under the program , banks provide loans to small businesses to cover payroll , rent and utilities for up to eight weeks .
The loans convert to grants if the firms retain or rehire their workers .
The program has been slow to get moving .
Banks and non-bank lenders since last week have voiced concerns to the Treasury about holding loans for seven weeks before they can be purchased by the government .
Community banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ continue making loans to small businesses under such a delay .
The Fed ’ s move would help bridge that gap by lending to the banks and accepting the PPP loans as collateral .
Banks had another alternative : bringing their PPP loans to the Fed ’ s discount window .
Banks may have balked at that because “ there ’ s a stigma at the discount window , ” said Nathan Sheets , a former Fed and Treasury official who ’ s now chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income in Newark , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a stigma at the discount window .
To the extent you create a whole new facility , that may facilitate banks ’ willingness to go to the Fed and collateralize these loans , ” Sheets said .
Mnuchin last month said “ there ’ s no stigma about going to the discount window , ” as he encouraged banks to use it .
“ They should feel free to draw from the discount window .
That ’ s another great source of liquidity for them to lend to companies.
” The move is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ steps by the central bank to keep credit flowing as the U.S. economy shelters from the pandemic .
The Fed has also slashed interest rates to near zero and pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system to keep markets functioning and help support businesses and households .
It is also working to establish a Main Street lending facility to help smaller- and medium-sized businesses .
Eric Rosengren , president of the Boston Fed , said on April 1 that was a couple of weeks away .
For more articles like @ @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-04-03--BofA Prepares for Deluge of Small-Business Loan Applications

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washingtonpost--2020-04-06--Analysis | What Happens When Hollywood Shuts Down

It ’ s hardly the only movie that ’ s had to temporarily stop filming and send everyone home for an unknowable period of time .
Indeed , “ show business ” is neither right now .
Garner , who co-produced “ Paul Blart : Mall Cop , ” said he also had two TV series for Netflix Inc. that were already far along and had to cease production .
Netflix ’ s “ Stranger Things , ” HBO ’ s “ Succession , ” ABC ’ s “ Grey ’ s Anatomy , ” AMC Networks Inc. ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s “ Handmaid ’ s Tale ” and Apple Inc. ’ s “ The Morning Show ” are among other series with highly anticipated returning seasons that will be delayed by national stay-at-home orders .
And it ’ s not just scripted shows .
For example , it seems unlikely that the “ Friends ” reunion special can still be filmed in time for the arrival of HBO Max , a new streaming-TV service launching in May from AT & T Inc. ’ s WarnerMedia , which reportedly paid $ 425 million @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the streaming rights to the popular 1990s-early aughts sitcom .
Movie theaters are closed and there aren ’ t any sports to watch .
For an audience bored by the isolation on a good day , and entirely dispirited by it on the bad ones , it ’ s all the more devastating to not be able to look forward to our favorite shows .
The Hollywood shutdown hit just as media giants like Comcast Corp. and Walt Disney Co. are getting their streaming products off the ground , each looking to spend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Disney+ and Apple TV+ both launched in November , while Comcast ’ s NBCUniversal is introducing its Peacock service April 15 .
Quibi , a startup created by a pair of media and tech veterans that ’ s reportedly raised $ 1.75 billion in funding , launched Monday .
With everyone home and glued to their TVs and devices , these companies will have a chance to attract more subscribers , while viewers gain more options for passing the time .
Even so , none of these apps on its own may have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the average household .
The most sought-after programs have been divvied up among the different services , which each charge their own monthly fees .
Viewers might just grow tired with of any of these streaming apps when forced to spend so much extra time with one , potentially creating more volatile churn rates — the closely tracked measurement of customers canceling subscriptions .
It ’ s a test for the streaming newbies and even Netflix that ’ s made all the more challenging if new content stops flowing in .
New @ @ @ @ @ @ @ middle of this , too .
For a big-budget film like “ F9 , ” the latest installment of “ The Fast and the Furious ” franchise , bypassing hundreds of millions of dollars in box-office revenue isn ’ t really an option .
That ’ s why Universal Pictures pushed back the release by almost a whole year to next April .
But with “ Trolls World Tour , ” Universal decided to make the movie available to rent on-demand for $ 20 instead of just delaying its theatrical debut .
Other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It raises the question of how all these delayed movies will fit into exhibitors ’ schedules once theaters do reopen .
As movie-goers grow accustomed to being able to see first-run films at home , and as streaming services try to juice their subscriber bases , a potential outcome may be shorter theatrical windows and an industry that ’ s forever changed .
The pain is also being felt by contractors and local businesses in Atlanta , which became the new U.S. hub for TV and film production in recent years .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in $ 2.9 billion invested in Georgia for the fiscal year ended June 2019 , according to the state .
“ Film & Entertainment ” is featured prominently on the Georgia Department of Economic Development website , but visit the “ now filming ” section and you ’ ll find a bare page that reads : “ Production in Georgia has been largely suspended due to the Covid-19 outbreak.
” Hollywood isn ’ t the only industry where workers ’ safety has been suddenly put at odds with their livelihoods .
Still , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ever , new shows and movies aren ’ t getting made .
That makes TV entertainment one area where the effects of the pandemic could be most striking for the everyday consumer .


washingtonpost--2020-04-06--Analysis | 884 Hidden Deaths Are Revealed, and More to Come

While that should stoke concerns over the quality of the statistics the general public and policy makers are poring over every day — and on the likely under-counting of deaths — it should also alert us to an unfolding tragedy happening on the pandemic ’ s front lines .
It ’ s not just hospitals that need help , but all institutions that care for the frail and infirm .
The numbers trickling in point to a sizable number of virus victims who are dying away from hospitals .
The latest count shows that nursing homes account for about one @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or 2,189 out of 8,078 total .
In one part of the Grand-Est region , total reported deaths ( from all causes ) rose by 73 % in one week last month .
There are similar stories all over the world , though differences in reporting methodology make it hard to build a full picture .
In New York City , one in four Covid-19 deaths is in a nursing home .
The Life Care Center in Washington state at one point accounted for more than half of the national U.S. death toll @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of last week , approximately a third of Spanish Covid-19 deaths came from nursing homes .
In Italy , one study estimated that of nursing home residents in the Lombardy region who died since Feb. 1 , half either had the virus or its symptoms .
It ’ s clear that these centers are painfully vulnerable to the new coronavirus because of the age and underlying health conditions of their residents .
A multi-country analysis of virus-related deaths shows the over-60s , over-70s and over-80s are most at risk .
In France , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , while in the U.S. , more than two-thirds of residents are over 75 .
However there are many aggravating factors in care homes that merit urgent attention , even in countries with sizable public health-care sectors and state-run homes .
There ’ s a reported lack of medical equipment such as masks or gowns , which makes it harder to stop infection transmission between young workers and the people they care for .
There ’ s also not enough staff , reflecting years of health-care spending stagnation even as populations have aged @ @ @ @ @ @ @ broader strain on hospital resources and intensive-care beds means nursing homes are sometimes left to their own devices to care for the elderly who ’ ve been infected .
This should be top of mind for policy makers , who are now confronted with horrific stories that are every family ’ s worst nightmare .
When the army in Spain mobilized to disinfect nursing homes last month , it found some patients lying in squalor and others left on their death beds .
In the U.S. , the Life Care Home now faces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its handling of the outbreak , which regulators say put people in danger .
It ’ s not just the unforgiving nature of the virus that ’ s being brought to light , but the quality of care the elderly receive .
There ’ s a resource crunch here that goes beyond Covid-19 .
When nursing-home workers in France went on strike in 2018 , they brought to light how their pay , training and equipment haven ’ t matched the increasing age and complex health issues of the people they care for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are paid a median rate of $ 11.57 per hour .
“ You ’ re going off to war and you ’ re in a battlefield where supplies are limited , the help is slow to get to you , and there ’ s a lot of casualties , ” according to a nursing director in Washington .
The use of lockdowns in many countries to limit the spread of the virus — often due to a lack of testing resources — has also turned the concept of the care home on its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of infection , but they ’ ve become prisons too , with many residents confined to their rooms and carers reduced to the role of enforcers .
Families the world over are being cut off from their elderly relatives , sick or well .
Heart-wrenching loneliness , the deepest fear of nursing home residents , is now prescribed as preventive medicine .
We are reminded daily of what doctor and author Atul Gawande described in his book “ Being Mortal ” as the choice facing us as we age : “ Yielding all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ kept safe in a home , or “ going down with the volcano ” to live freely , yet at greater risk .
The ultimate cognitive dissonance of Covid-19 is that it forces us to behave inhumanely to save lives .
Three months without seeing your family can also kill , as one care-home specialist in France put it .
Adding to the suffering , those who die do so without their families present , and some countries have banned funerals altogether .
This cuts deep : Burial rites are at the core @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of dying , and living , alone .
A lot of this pain will eventually pass .
Once lockdowns are lifted , and the virus is gone , families will reunite and find the best way to remember those they lost .
But the resource strain facing workers in nursing care will still be there .
They need extra support , not just in the current battle against Covid-19 , but in the wider struggle of curative and palliative care .
This isn ’ t just about a temporary epidemic , or mortality @ @ @ @ @ @ @ human .


washingtonpost--2020-02-17--Analysis | China Inc. Virus Cure Will Worsen Its Condition

Workers are stranded and factories remain widely shut .
There is no imminent sign of that changing , even if the increase in infections has trended downward in recent days .
The resulting economic slowdown will bite into earnings by 10 % to 20 % for months and hamper the ability of companies to pay their debts .
As asset quality deteriorates , Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that Chinese banks ’ implied ratio of bad-to-total loans will jump to 8.1 % from an earlier prediction of 5.4 % .
China has responded with all-too-familiar palliatives .
Regulators and local @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billions of dollars for tax cuts , borrowings at cheaper rates , and incentives to keep workers employed .
Banks are being asked to push off repayments and to roll over debts .
They ’ re allowing companies to add more working capital loans before they have paid down existing ones .
Trouble is , China Inc. was already struggling before the virus hit , especially the private sector .
A stimulus campaign to pull manufacturers out of the trade-war doldrums didn ’ t do much for their balance sheets last year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and have been increasing for the likes of large machinery makers .
Short-term funding and average average payback periods are also rising .
Financing for capital expenditures and working capital slowed into the end of last year .
A recent survey of 995 small- and medium-size companies showed that a just over a third could survive for a month with their current savings .
Another third could hang on for two months , while just under 18 % could last three .
All this as large banks reported a more than 30 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the first half of 2019 .
Beijing ’ s latest round of financial forbearance will only worsen the situation .
Lending more with looser terms may help tide over some companies and refinance their debt for now , but does little to flush out the ones that just aren ’ t financially viable .
That many can not support themselves without the state for even three months shows China ’ s vulnerabilities .
Lenders , the pillars of the financial system , are weaker than the numbers betray .
The central bank ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Before the virus , they were contending with a bank failure and a deleveraging campaign that unearthed billions of dollars of bad credit assets .
Government coffers , meanwhile , are shrinking .
All of the state ’ s largesse has meant fiscal revenue growth slowed to 3.8 % last year , well under its 5 % target and down almost half from 6.8 % in 2018 .
In theory , Beijing has the tools and a vast number of financial institutions aside from banks to lean on .
In times of crises @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of .
But repeated use of banks this way multiplies the dangers to unsustainable levels .
Small and medium enterprises facing funding issues have to reach for more shadowy financing .
The private sector is cash-starved and debt piles up .
That debt , as the deleveraging campaign has shown , clogs the system and makes every yuan of credit even more ineffective .
Companies can ’ t grow and lenders start to fail .
The state is left holding the bag .
A more prudent approach this time might be call into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and asset management companies , with their experience in dealing with stressed companies .
Insurers have been big buyers of bonds , stocks and private equity deals for years .
As operators in a marketplace , they understand credit risk better than banks .
They could be more effective in managing small and medium companies ’ debts.It ’ s time to let weak companies that have high operating leverage and short-term debts close down .
But that might be too risky for President Xi Jinping , who continues to voice support for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for around 80 % of urban employment .
When China dealt with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in 2003 , an era of supercharged growth was beginning .
It had recently joined the World Trade Organization and even indebted companies had cash flowing in and the prospect of a lot more coming .
That ’ s no longer the case .
Even if Beijing manages to rein in the coronavirus , debt will keep sickening China Inc .


washingtonpost--2020-02-17--Analysis | Hong Kong’s Teflon Home Prices Are Virus-Proof

Home prices have dropped just 6.1 % from their record high in June , as measured by the Centa-City Leading Index compiled by Centaline Property Agency .
The index has risen for four weeks in a row through Feb. 9 , the latest data , even as the virus shut down swathes of the Chinese economy , slowed Hong Kong tourist arrivals to a trickle and forced many of the city ’ s financial employees to work from home .
A number of factors undergird the outlook for housing : the dominance of a small number of family-controlled companies that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ; and limited leverage among home owners .
Developers completed 14,000 units last year , 33 % lower than 2018 , according to Morgan Stanley analyst Praveen Choudhary .
By contrast , 31,000 units were built in 2002 , just before the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome .
That was 35 % more than the year before .
High equity levels mean there ’ s little pressure for home owners to sell , as I noted in November .
The loan-to-value ratio for new mortgages dropped to 46 % in September , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2002 , according to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority .
Meanwhile , Hong Kong ’ s one-month interbank rate , against which most mortgages are priced , has fallen back below 2 % this month .
To be sure , a drastic worsening of the economy would change the calculation .
Hong Kong ’ s unemployment rate is estimated to have climbed for a fourth month to 3.4 % in January .
That ’ s still far short of the 8.5 % peak reached during SARS .
Having risen more than fivefold from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prices have attained a Teflon-like response to bad news .
That resilience is far less evident in commercial property , a sector that tends to move more in line with the state of the underlying economy .
Once beloved by private equity firms for stable returns in a low-yield world , Hong Kong ’ s office and retail real estate is losing appeal as companies reduce space and shoppers desert malls .
The total transaction value of office and retail properties slumped 12.9 % last year to HK $ 49.6 billion ( $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Intelligence analyst Patrick Wong .
Grade-A offices recorded a 6 % vacancy rate in December , the highest level since April 2010 , when the number was the same , figures from real estate broker Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. show .
Chinese companies , which have become increasingly important in the commercial property market , reduced their take-up of new office space by almost 40 % .
WeWork , the office-sharing company that scrapped its IPO last year , gave up some space .
With Hong Kong ’ s gross domestic product shrinking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ became a common sight even before the coronavirus outbreak forced people to work from home .
By the fourth quarter , office prices had reached the lowest since the second quarter of 2018 , according to JLL .
Retail landlords , meanwhile , started slashing rents by 60 % this month for tenants that are trying to cope with the dearth of shoppers .
The fourth-quarter vacancy rate of of 9 % in core shopping areas was the highest in five years , JLL ’ s figures show .
Average rents of prime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % from a year earlier at the end of 2019 , according to Bloomberg Intelligence .
Tourism , particularly from mainland China , is far more important to Hong Kong ’ s economy than during SARS and has been hit hard by both the protests and the coronavirus .
Preliminary visitor arrivals data for February from the Hong Kong Tourism Board show average daily traffic has plummeted almost 99 % to fewer than 3,000 people .
The retail sector was already facing a secular downturn .
China has cut luxury taxes , reducing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Hong Kong .
Local consumption , barring panic-buying of toilet paper and face masks , is also suffering and will take time to recover .
For real estate investors , the best place to shelter may be in cash-rich Hong Kong developers such as Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. and Li Ka-shing ’ s CK Asset Holdings Ltd. that have a higher exposure to housing .
These look better placed to ride out the slump than rivals such as Wharf Real Estate Investment Co. , owner of the Times Square mall in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or Hongkong Land Holdings Ltd. , the biggest office landlord in the central business district .


washingtonpost--2020-02-17--Analysis | Why China’s Debt Defaults Are Picking Up Yet Again

Big , with the potential to worsen , particularly as the coronavirus has shut down a large part of businesses , with transportation , tourism and consumption hard hit .
Onshore company bond defaults in 2019 reached more than 150 -- well past the 2018 record of 120 .
Missed payments totaled more than 130 billion yuan ( $ 18.7 billion ) , compared with 2018 ’ s high of 122 billion yuan , which itself was more than quadruple the level in 2017 .
Private-sector firms accounted for more than 80 % of defaults in 2019 , data compiled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Investors Service said it expects 40 to 50 new , first-time defaulters in 2020 ; there were about three dozen in 2019 .
It ’ s a liquidity crunch , mainly .
Investors and banks historically have favored state-backed borrowers and are reluctant to extend credit to smaller , private companies .
On top of that , the government ’ s surprise seizure of Baoshang Bank Co. in May 2019 -- the first such takeover in two decades -- cut many investors ’ tolerance for risk .
Illustrating the point : The one-year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had widened to a record high level of 257 basis points in July before tightening .
Meanwhile , growth in the broader economy has been losing steam and weaker companies can be subject to funding squeezes and higher repayment pressure .
In 2016 , most were in industries with excess capacity such as coal and steel .
This time , delinquencies are coming from a wider range .
In December , Tewoo Group , a major commodities trader based in Tianjin , restructured $ 1.25 billion of debt in an unprecedented deal in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It was the biggest dollar-bond default among state-owned companies in 20 years .
That followed a bond default by corn oil and steel processor Xiwang Group in Shandong province that sparked contagion fears in the coastal region , where companies are known for guaranteeing each other ’ s debt .
Earlier in 2019 , China Minsheng Investment Group Corp. , a conglomerate with assets including property , aviation and health care , came under pressure from its $ 34 billion debt pile .
Known as CMIG , it embarked on a mission to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and offloading assets .
Yes .
To counter the economic squeeze from the virus , China ’ s central bank is providing hundreds of billions of yuan in loans and regulators have created a “ green passage ” for companies to sell “ anti-epidemic bonds ” if they meet certain criteria .
The central bank has also provided a lending facility to commercial banks with a lower interest rate .
More broadly , officials have been easing some of the stress for the past two years , for instance by injecting liquidity into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cutting banks ’ required reserve ratios .
( The latest was in January . )
Regulators have offered banks cash and asked them to lend more to help small firms , and urged big banks and brokerages to provide liquidity support to smaller peers , which are the main buyers of corporate debt .
In draft rules released in December , China ’ s central bank , economic planning agency and securities regulator jointly vowed to improve the mechanism for dealing with bond defaults and resolving credit risk more effectively .
Chinese companies @ @ @ @ @ @ @ least a decade , ever since the leadership team under Xi ’ s predecessor responded to the global financial crisis by going on a borrowing binge .
That kept China ’ s economy chugging , but at a cost .
The corporate debt to GDP ratio surged to a record 160 % at the end of 2017 , from 101 % 10 years earlier .
Xi and his lieutenants vowed to rein it in , issuing directives in 2017 on how money was to be loaned and managed .
A particular goal has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 10 trillion ecosystem of shadow banking .
In fact , Chinese local government financing vehicles , which were established to fund infrastructure projects , have already defaulted on many trust loans ( which were part of that system ) , but had yet to suffer a bond default as 2020 began .
Given signs that authorities are more comfortable letting borrowers renege on payments both in the domestic market and offshore , potential investors are reassessing risks .
They ’ ve also grown more skeptical about the quality of Chinese issuers ’ financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China Securities Regulatory Commission found Kangde Xin Composite Material Group Co. , a laminating film and equipment maker in Jiangsu province , had fabricated 11.9 billion yuan of profits during 2015-2018 .
Meanwhile , China has seen a booming market for junk bond investors .
A fast-expanding pool of souring debt and a new generation of risk hunters also helps create a more diverse market where creditworthiness is better reflected in pricing .
In the current process , troubled companies get as long as nine months from when the court accepts a bankruptcy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plan with all parties .
If they fail the company can be declared bankrupt , triggering liquidation .
Concerns exist about the government ’ s heavy involvement in major restructuring cases and the reluctance of banks to pursue court-supervised plans because they don ’ t want to bear losses .
In practice , the process can drag on beyond nine months and foreign investors have had limited enforcement rights on some state-owned assets , according to Pacific Investment Management Co .


washingtonpost--2020-04-02--Analysis | The Law Trump Can Use to Order More Ventilators

Yes .
The Department of Defense “ routinely ” uses the law to make sure military-related orders are given priority within the U.S. supply chain , according to the Congressional Research Service .
The Federal Emergency Management Agency has used it after natural disasters to prioritize contracts for manufactured housing , food and bottled water , and other supplies .
Two decades ago , President Bill Clinton was criticized for using the law to order suppliers to sell natural gas to California -- at prices some senators said were far below market -- to help energy utilities facing credit crunches @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the law to boost production of rare earth elements , small drones and sensors to detect submarines , among other products .
His administration has also considered using it to help the coal and nuclear industries .
In addition to requiring that its orders be given priority , the government can create incentives for manufacturers , such as providing them with direct loans or loan guarantees ; buy equipment for them ; and waive antitrust restrictions that could discourage industry cooperation .
The law allows the government to control the use of scarce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reserve materials to fulfill federal orders .
Hoarding and price gouging are barred for materials the president designates as scarce .
Failing to comply with the law can lead to financial penalties or imprisonment .
Trump used his power under the law to order General Motors Co. to accept and prioritize ventilator contracts from the Department of Health and Human Services .
He also directed HHS to help companies building respirators -- including General Electric Co. , Hill-Rom Holdings Inc. and Medtronic Plc -- gain access to necessary materials .
Earlier , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of N95 respirator masks , ventilators and personal protective equipment used by doctors and nurses .
It used the law to seize 192,000 masks , almost 600,000 gloves , and other critical supplies , which were then distributed to health-care workers in New York and New Jersey .
On March 18 , he formally invoked the law with an executive order “ prioritizing and allocating health and medical resources to respond to the spread of Covid-19.
” But four days later , on March 22 , Trump said action under the law wasn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of companies , ” including 3M Co. and General Electric Co. , had stepped forward voluntarily to make needed equipment .
He also suggested that using the law means “ nationalizing our business ” as a socialist country like Venezuela might do .
( In fact , the law doesn ’ t mean the government taking ownership of any companies , which is what nationalization implies . )
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce supported Trump ’ s resistance to fully deploy his powers under the DPA .
3M is using “ surge capacity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ masks .
Distilleries and breweries are making hand sanitizer .
Still , shortfalls remain , and Democrats have urged Trump to go further in his use of the law .


washingtonpost--2020-04-15--Global Cases Top 2 Million; Mask Order in New York: Virus Update


washingtonpost--2020-02-02--Analysis | OPEC Only Faces One Choice in China Virus Crisis

The initial reaction resembles that of an agitated anthill , with frantic scurrying in all directions amid an apparent lack of coordination .
The final days of last week saw calls for their next meeting , scheduled for the first week of March , to be brought forward , perhaps by as much as a month .
That move appeared to be driven by Saudi Arabia , OPEC ’ s biggest producer , but initially found little support from the largest of the non-OPEC members of the wider group — Russia .
One of the key challenges facing the Organization @ @ @ @ @ @ @ big oil-producing counterparts is that they have no idea how big a problem they face .
At this point , estimates of the epidemic ’ s impact on oil demand vary widely .
S & P Global Platts sees global oil demand falling by an “ almost catastrophic ” 2.6 million barrels a day in February and 2 million barrels in March in its worst-case scenario .
No wonder producers are in a panic .
China is , by far , the biggest market for OPEC+ crude exports , with the big Persian @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data compiled by Bloomberg show that almost a quarter of all shipments out of the region last year went to China .
Add in the other three big Asian buyers — India , Japan and South Korea — and that share rises to two-thirds .
It is difficult to overestimate the importance of China to global oil balances .
Earlier this month , OPEC ’ s own forecasts showed the world ’ s most populous country accounting for more than a quarter of all the growth in oil demand worldwide this year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ an even bigger role , with almost 40 % of incremental demand in China .
The word “ virus ” didn ’ t appear in either of those agencies ’ monthly reports .
The virus will not affect all oil products equally .
With travel bans and an extended Lunar New Year holiday , transport fuels will be hit hardest .
Gasoline , jet fuel and gas/diesel oil were expected to account for 55 % of China ’ s oil demand this year and make up almost 60 % of the growth .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ hardest hit — and not just in China .
Flight bans to China by many airlines , including British Airways Plc and Delta Air Lines Inc. , and travel restrictions on Chinese tourists will have a knock-on effect on fuel use elsewhere , particularly in nearby countries that are favored destinations for tour groups .
And then there ’ s all of the other knock-on effects .
Lower demand from end users means lower demand from refiners .
Major state-owned Chinese refiners may cut run rates below 70 % to cope with falling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a note , while operating rates at privately-owned independent refineries in the eastern Chinese province of Shandong may be cut to below 50 % .
Even before the new coronavirus began to hit oil consumption , the swing producers that make up OPEC+ were in trouble .
The hard-won output deal they reached in December failed to deliver any significant cuts to total output levels , and prices have drifted lower .
The deal ’ s currently scheduled to expire at the end of March .
Simply extending the cuts will do nothing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and demand , and therefore it will take more to light a fire under oil prices .
Deeper cuts will be much harder to agree — Russia , for one , is against them — but that ’ s the only thing that will lift prices in the face of a Chinese slowdown .
There are already signs that slowdown is happening .
Sales of Latin American oil cargoes to China ground to a halt last week .
Persian Gulf producers are starting to receive preliminary nominations from their customers of how much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that will indicate whether Chinese refiners seek to reduce the volumes they lift from export terminals in the region .
Non-OPEC countries — led by the U.S. , Norway , Brazil and new producer Guyana — were already expected to add two extra barrels for every additional one consumed worldwide this year , squeezing OPEC .
The loss of much of China ’ s oil demand growth will crush the producer group under the weight of falling oil prices , unless , collectively , they cut their output further .


washingtonpost--2020-03-18--Analysis | Can the European Union Survive the Coronavirus?

Back in the real world , intra-European solidarity is strained by the pandemic , and nationalism — in the form of unilateral and uncoordinated decisions taken by member states — is back again .
Germany , for example , caused outrage in Austria and Switzerland by stopping shipments of face masks to its neighbors .
Several states have export restrictions , usually hidden in impenetrable legalese , on medical equipment from goggles to gloves and ventilators .
Italy , in particular , feels let down .
When it first tried to invoke an EU mechanism to share medical supplies , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only China sent equipment .
And then there ’ s the closures of national borders even within the Schengen area of supposedly unobstructed travel .
Last week , Poland , the Czech Republic and Denmark were among those slamming their barriers shut .
Others followed this week , including Germany , which shut its borders with France , Austria , Luxembourg and Switzerland ( a non-EU country that belongs to Schengen ) .
The EU ’ s normal freedom of movement has been suspended .
The epidemiological case for such border closures is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social distancing , such as cancelling trade fairs or self-quarantining at home .
If a virus is circulating in the population on both sides of a border , as this coronavirus clearly is , preventing people from driving across won ’ t help to contain the spread .
Otherwise , Germany might as well “ close ” the demarcation between Bavaria and Thuringia or its other federal states .
But in a crisis where governments are afraid of looking impotent , border closures have the advantage of looking decisive .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is now getting into the game , calling on its members to close the bloc ’ s external borders for 30 days .
Most of them are already shut , of course .
The EU ’ s suggestion is really a plea to member states to save the intra-EU “ single market ” for goods , services , labor and capital .
Ultimately , it ’ s an attempt to be heard at all .
In this sense , Covid-19 is a more extreme version of the refugee crisis of 2015-16 .
Back @ @ @ @ @ @ @ find a united answer to the migrants .
Instead , individual countries from Hungary to Austria unilaterally closed their borders .
They subsequently balked at all attempts to reform Europe ’ s asylum laws .
That ’ s why the EU still hasn ’ t fixed the system , and is facing round two of such turmoil .
It ’ s been a similar story in the euro crisis , or really any European malaise .
Unless the EU ’ s leaders somehow rise to the occasion in this pandemic , one conclusion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that in a real pinch only their own nations can act quickly and boldly enough to deserve their trust .
People like the quarantined Italians in the picture above will drape their national colors , not the EU ’ s stars , over their balconies to signal where their primary solidarity lies .
All of this is of course especially disheartening for europhiles like Ursula von der Leyen , the relatively new president of the European Commission .
She was hoping to bring “ Europe ” closer to its citizens and make it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the geopolitical clashes with China , Russia and the U.S .
But whether the challenge is migration , foreign policy or defense , Europe ’ s nations just can ’ t , or won ’ t , make their union “ ever closer.
” Worse , every EU failure of action or solidarity is grist for the mills of populists , nationalists and euroskeptics , from Italy to Hungary and even Germany .
Their narratives already led one member state , the U.K. , to turn its back on the EU .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s not even necessary for more countries to formally exit .
Other blocs have disintegrated throughout history , from the League of Nations to the Confederation of the Rhine and the Holy Roman Empire before that .
Some collapsed fast , others slowly .
Each in their own tragic way , they simply became irrelevant .


washingtonpost--2020-03-08--Analysis | OPEC’s Epic Fail Will Hurt All Oil Producers, Even Russia

What ’ s become clear is that by making any OPEC output cut dependent on the participation of non-OPEC allies , the group effectively cemented Russia ’ s full control over the whole process of supply management , as I warned more than a year ago .
This isn ’ t the first time OPEC+ , which controls almost half of the world ’ s oil production , has been an uneasy partnership , but it is by far the most damaging .
The partnership remains on life-support .
But this meeting was not just about making a further output @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ratify an extension of the current agreement between the 20 nations to remove as much as 2.1 million barrels a day of oil from the market .
That deal , reached in December , expires at the end of this month , leaving members free to pump as much as they wish from April 1 .
And that ’ s just what Saudi Arabia is gearing up to do .
State-owned oil monopoly Saudi Aramco , delayed setting official selling prices for April after the meeting collapsed .
When it published them on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Light crude by the most in 20 years , signaling that it may try to push as many barrels into the market as possible .
Bad as they are , things may not be quite as bad as some fear .
Don ’ t expect the full volume of OPEC+ cuts to return immediately and swamp the market .
Most members are already pumping at , or close to , capacity .
Aside from Saudi Arabia , which could add more than 1 million barrels very quickly , the only other countries with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 100,000 barrels a day are the United Arab Emirates and Russia .
Russia didn ’ t reject further output cuts just because its oil companies are reluctant to pump a bit less out of the ground .
After all , they haven ’ t exactly stuck to their commitments so far , and at the last meeting they even secured an exemption for condensates — volumes of light oil extracted from gas fields — which is one of the areas of growth in Russian output .
Had they wanted to do so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Russia to accept an output cut and implement it only in part , if at all .
One reason for refusing to play ball may be disagreement over how best to deal with a sudden sharp , but temporary , drop in oil demand .
By allowing oil prices to fall , the Russians may be hoping to spur demand .
It ’ s difficult to see that having much impact on consumption , though , when factories are closed , airlines are slashing flights and roads are emptying .
Cheap oil won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus .
But it may encourage countries like China and India to build up their strategic stockpiles .
Both are creating buffers along similar lines to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to protect themselves from any future supply disruptions .
China already seems to be pouring vast amounts of crude into storage tanks and underground caverns .
Flows of crude from the Persian Gulf nations are down from their record October level , but they ’ re still pretty much on trend with shipments since the start of 2017 .
Volumes from West @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And amid the collapse in its oil consumption , China has emerged as the biggest buyer of crude from the Kurdish region of Iraq .
It took four out of every 10 barrels shipped last month after buying nothing from the region as recently as October .
But there is also a bigger geopolitical dimension to Russia ’ s withdrawal from the output-cutting pact , just as there was to its joining .
Participation served President Putin ’ s ambitions to rebuild Russia ’ s influence in the Middle East .
Withdrawal is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ repeated attacks on Russia ’ s energy interests through sanctions , which have stifled Arctic offshore exploration and shale development , prevented the completion a gas pipeline to Europe under the Baltic Sea , and targeted the Venezuelan business of Russia ’ s state-oil producer Rosneft .
Saudi Arabia led OPEC in a war on shale in 2014 , when it introduced the pump-at-will policy .
It failed then , capitulating as oil prices collapsed a year later .
But U.S. producers from Exxon Mobil Corp. to Continental Resources Inc. are already being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ auspicious time to launch an attack .
Even if it fails again , Russia intends to make sure that U.S. oil companies share the pain of the collapse in oil demand .
Saudi Arabia appears wiling to help it .
The next few months will be ugly .


washingtonpost--2020-03-08--EU’s Breton Urges Banks to Lend to Businesses Amid Outbreak


washingtonpost--2020-03-08--Central Bank Pressure, Oil Price War, Japan Fiscal Aid: Eco Day

• Saudi Arabia plans to boost oil output next month to well above 10 million barrels a day , as the kingdom responds aggressively to the collapse of its OPEC+ alliance with Russia • Japan ’ s government will offer financial assistance to small businesses as part of a second round of emergency measures against the coronavirus , Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said • In any normal year , China ’ s political class would be convening around now inside Beijing ’ s Great Hall of the People to rubber-stamp the year ’ s targets for economic growth and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the Chinese capital is hushed • Italy introduced far-reaching measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak , including a near-complete travel ban for about a quarter of the population .
Yet , it is unclear how strictly they would be enforced • China ’ s exports fell more than expected in the first two months of this year as the coronavirus outbreak led to extended holidays , depressed factory output , and blocked transport and movement • Australia ’ s fiscal stimulus package to protect the economy against the impact of the coronavirus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion ( $ 6.6 billion ) , as it seeks to protect jobs and business cash flows • The U.S. and Europe face the “ distinct possibility ” of a technical recession in the first half as the coronavirus outbreak dampens demand and supply and drives investors to safe havens , according to Pimco ’ s Joachim Fels • The first crisis of ECB President Christine Lagarde ’ s four-month tenure will force her to decide this week whether to fire one of the few monetary-policy bullets she has left • The two @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak and the next Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey , inherit the biggest economic threat for a decade .
Sunak signaled fiscal rules could be ditched as he prepares a package to tackle the crisis • The U.K. is the biggest country yet to zoom in on the explosive topic of the pay gap between women and men • Lebanon is about to enter the crucial first phase of talks aimed at renegotiating its $ 30 billion in Eurobonds after saying at the weekend it won ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-03-08--Italy’s Deaths Rise 57%; France Bars Large Events: Virus Update


washingtonpost--2020-02-28--Korea Cases Top 2,000; Nigeria Confirms Infection: Virus Update


washingtonpost--2020-04-09--Global Cases Top 1.5 Million; Singapore Numbers Up: Virus Update

The economic hit from coronavirus threatens to put more than half a billion people into poverty unless countries take action to cushion the blow , according to a report from the charity group , Oxfam .
Under the most serious scenario of a 20 % contraction in income , the number of people living in poverty could increase by between 434 million and 611 million , said the report , which is based on an analysis by researchers at King ’ s College London and the Australian National University .
The city-state reported its largest daily increase in coronaviruscases on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a partial lockdown .
Authorities said there were 142 new cases , bringing Singapore ’ s total to 1,623 .
An Indian national who died while awaiting his test result was subsequently confirmed to have the infection , according to the Ministry of Health .
Investigations are going on to establish the cause of death , it said .
If confirmed , that would be the seventh fatality linked to the disease .
Starbucks Corp. said a sharp slowdown from the coronavirus pandemic will worsen before getting better , with the financial impact @ @ @ @ @ @ @ company based its assessment on the tentative recovery in the Chinese market , its most important along with the U.S .
The coffee chain went through social distancing and mandatory closures in the Asian nation earlier in the year , giving it an early glimpse at how the situation would play out in the U.S. and elsewhere .
When asked about President Donald Trump ’ s threat to cut funding and claim that the WHO favors China , Tedros said the WHO tries to treat everyone equally , and the WHO will do @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
He urged the U.S. , China , Group of 20 countries and the rest of the world to come together and fight .
The European Commission is trying to coordinate how member states end lockdowns following criticism that the bloc ’ s initial response to the pandemic was chaotic .
An internal draft of a memo seen by Bloomberg sets out conditions for easing to begin as well as other steps that be needed , such as expanding testing capacities and using apps to gather data .
The adoption of the plan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ commission spokesman Eric Mamer , who told journalists in Brussels that timing is a “ tricky issue ” since countries are at different stages of the outbreak .
“ We have got to ensure that the public understands we ’ re moving to a new phase , ” said Bruce Aylward , one of the WHO ’ s top officials who recently led a mission to Spain .
Countries need to make sure they ’ re hunting the disease down , because the key to eradication is testing patients , isolating them and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may need to continue for some time while others are gradually loosened , he said .
“ It ’ s not lifting lockdowns and going back to normal .
It ’ s a new normal .
”


washingtonpost--2020-05-03--U.S. Case Rise Slows; Gilead Sets Remdesivir Use: Virus Update

Mining and metal work , along with tourism , are among industries and services that can restart this month under special safety measures , according to the decree .
Measures to contain the pandemic led to an “ effective ” control of the outbreak , the government said .
South Africa recorded it ’ s biggest increase in infections , with cases increasing 447 to 6,783 while the death toll rose by 8 to 131 .
The record jump comes just days after the country lifted the restrictive lockdown that started March 26 to slow the spread of the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ workforce will return to work starting Monday .
“ We are now firmly focused on getting this medicine to the most urgent patients , ” O ’ Day said on CBS ’ s “ Face the Nation.
” “ We intend to get that to patients in the early part of this next week , beginning to work with the government , which will determine which cities are most vulnerable and where the patients are that need this medicine.
” O ’ Day indicated the federal government hasn ’ t mandated that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in receiving the medicine .
Emergency use is limited to hospitalized patients with low blood-oxygen levels or who need breathing support , the Food and Drug Administration said in a statement on its approval action .
“ There had been several reports of shipments being intercepted or diverted by the federal government from a couple of my colleague governors from around the country , ” Hogan said on CNN ’ s “ State of the Union.
” “ We wanted to make sure that that didn ’ t happen.
” He added : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s necessary at this point .
”


washingtonpost--2020-05-01--Business Is Far From Usual as Large Swaths of the U.S. Reopen


washingtonpost--2020-05-01--Analysis | No, Sweden Isn’t a Miracle Coronavirus Model

Sweden ’ s hands-off approach to lockdown has certainly been different to that of other countries , from France and Italy to the U.S. and China .
Large public gatherings are banned but restaurants , bars and schools have stayed open , and social distancing is encouraged rather than enforced by police .
Trust in the public is high , and so is the public ’ s trust in the strategy .
Swedes seem happy with the global attention .
“ Many countries are starting to come around to the Swedish way , ” Anders Tegnell , the country ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But like so many stories of national exceptionalism in this crisis — the U.K. at one point was convinced it could avoid strict closures , painting them as unscientific , before eventually doing a U-turn — this one is debatable and premature .
U.S. President Donald Trump , no doubt annoyed at stories in the American media heaping praise on the Swedes , tweeted one obvious riposte this week , noting the high price that Swedes have had to pay in terms of Covid-19 fatalities .
Sweden ’ s 2,586 deaths compare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Norway ’ s 207 .
Taking population into account , Sweden has suffered more deaths per million people than the U.S. ( although deaths aren ’ t always counted in the same way ) .
When looking at all-cause mortality — which is probably a better gauge of the real level of coronavirus deaths — Sweden has been hit with “ very high ” excess deaths since the start of the year , according to the European body monitoring these statistics .
In Denmark , they ’ ve been “ low.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more deaths in exchange for trying to achieve group immunity more quickly and protecting its economy from lasting collapse .
Several big countries in Europe with stricter lockdowns have suffered more excess deaths and greater economic damage than Sweden while being more aggressive about halting infections .
But they felt they had no other way to relieve their overrun hospitals , a problem that Sweden doesn ’ t have .
We don ’ t know what other nations might have gone through if they ’ d followed the Swedish model — France estimates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ We also don ’ t know how much immunity has been acquired by the Swedes .
An official report estimating that a third of Stockholm ’ s population would develop antibodies to the virus by May 1 was withdrawn after an error .
We do know that Sweden ’ s Covid-19 journey hasn ’ t been exceptional .
Like other countries , it has experienced a surge in deaths in care homes , where about one in three virus deaths is estimated to have taken place .
Visiting relatives and staff are expected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to reports , they don ’ t always do so .
The Swedes have also had a lack of systematic testing and equipment shortages .
Things might have been even worse without the Swedes ’ demographic and cultural defenses .
This is a population that does social distancing already in many ways .
More than half of the country lives in single-person households , working from home is common and access to fast broadband is everywhere .
But Swedes are becoming increasingly unconcerned about keeping their distance as time goes on , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ officials have warned about their behavior .
In Stockholm they ’ ve threatened to shut bars and restaurants .
At the same time , migrant workers in the country are being infected disproportionately , according to a recent national survey .
The hyper-individualist expectation to “ self-regulate ” looks too complacent for immigrant communities who lack access to information .
Sweden may very well turn out to be a relative winner of sorts , especially economically .
It will probably experience a shorter and less severe slowdown than its European neighbors , says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bank .
That will cheer the lockdown critics such as Swedish industrialist Jacob Wallenberg , who in March warned of the long-term damage of putting economies in deep freeze .
Whether that ’ s much of a win for an economy where trade accounts for 89 % of GDP is doubtful .
Leapfrogging European Union trading partners in a single market that ’ s been paralyzed by the virus scare can ’ t be that meaningful .
And it probably won ’ t be fondly remembered .
Given that we haven ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more circumspection might be in order .
Danish philosopher Soren Kierkegaard once said : “ Life can only be understood backwards ; but it must be lived forwards.
” As we approach a turning point in the crisis , it ’ s tempting to look back and single out winners as the model to follow .
But we don ’ t know what ’ s going to happen next .
None of us has lived through it yet .
And that includes Sweden .


washingtonpost--2020-04-14--NYC Adds to Death Toll; California Maps Reopening: Virus Update

Billionaire Chris Rokos ’ s macro hedge fund had its best month ever , gaining 14 % in March amid @ @ @ @ @ pandemic .
That takes the fund ’ s advance for the year to about 20 @ @ @ @ @ person with knowledge of the matter .
About a quarter of this year ’ s @ @ @ @ @ equities trades as the longest-running bull market in stocks came to an end .


washingtonpost--2020-04-13--Global Coronavirus Cases Pass 2 Million Mark: Virus Update

“ It ’ s a real trade-off , getting the best value of the restrictions that you can lift and at same time not put the health situation at greater risk , ” Prime Minister Scott Morrison told Channel Seven ’ s Sunrise program , pointing to agribusiness and manufacturing as examples .
He said he hoped to move to less-restrictive measures , but said the nation was still many weeks away .
The once-per-decade U.S. census will be delayed by at least three months as the coronavirus pandemic hinders in-person data collection from households .
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross @ @ @ @ @ @ @ June 1 , and that in turn would delay completion of the count until Oct. 31 .
He asked Congress Monday to grant his department a 120-day extension of statutory deadlines as a result of the outbreak .
U.S. cases rose 5.6 % from the day before to 572,169 by Monday afternoon , according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News .
That was lower than the 7.4 % average daily increase over the past week but slightly higher than the 5.4 % increase on Sunday .
Deaths rose 7.3 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s cases rose about 3.3 % , but the rate was about half of what it was a week ago .
“ We will be driven by facts , we will be driven by evidence , we will be driven by science , we will be driven by our public health advisers , ” California Governor Gavin Newsom said during his daily coronavirus briefing Monday .
While deaths linked to the virus rose by 574 to 14,967 , the number of intensive-care patients dropped for a fifth day to the lowest level since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in an emailed statement .
New recorded cases rose by 4,188 to 136,779 and the rise in the daily death toll was the first in four days .
The head of the World Health Organization said he hopes funding from the U.S. , the group ’ s biggest donor , will continue and that the two have a “ very good ” relationship .
President Donald Trump suggested Friday he might suspend on contributions this week .
The men last spoke two weeks ago , Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press @ @ @ @ @ @ @ going to have to change our behavior for the foreseeable future , ” said Mike Ryan , the head of the WHO ’ s health emergencies program .
Countries should lift lockdowns slowly and only when they have enough capacity to track the disease , WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove said , warning it would be a mistake for Europe to lift them all at once .
New York City may be close to seeing a decline in new coronavirus infections after having hit a peak , but Mayor Bill de Blasio says @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could be summer or fall before the city can start returning to normal .
“ We are nearing the peak right now , ” Redfield said in another interview , with NBC .
“ I think sometime , hopefully this week , we will be able to say -- you ’ ll know when you ’ re at the peak when the next day is actually less than the day before .
”