washingtonpost--2020-03-24--Analysis | Mask or No Mask? This Is What the Virus Experts Say

For one thing , the practice of wearing medical masks in public is much more entrenched in eastern Asia .
It emerged as a convention during the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS ) , which also was caused by a coronavirus .
For another , there ’ s no scientific consensus on the value of wearing a mask in public .
A few small studies have suggested that widespread use of face masks by the public may have reduced transmission in outbreaks of influenza and SARS , which like Covid-19 are respiratory diseases .
However , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Some medical specialists say one should , especially in light of evidence that a significant portion of those infected with the novel coronavirus don ’ t show symptoms and so may remain out and about .
Others argue that it ’ s irresponsible for members of the public to buy up masks that are in short supply .
U.S .
Surgeon General Jerome Adams tweeted , “ Seriously people - STOP BUYING MASKS !
” The scarcity among health-care providers , he said , raises the overall risk to the community : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the uninfected and once sick can ’ t look after patients .
The argument is that everyone is better off if masks are reserved for those who certainly require them and who can ’ t avoid exposure to people who are infected or might be .
Yes : if they are coughing or sneezing .
A cough is a common symptom of Covid-19 , and the novel coronavirus spreads in respiratory droplets -- spatters of liquid expelled with an infected person coughs , sneezes or even speaks .
These droplets are usually heavy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or surrounding surfaces .
Infection can occur if the droplets reach the mouth , nose or possibly the eye of someone nearby , either directly or from an unwashed hand that ’ s touched a contaminated object or surface .
When patients diagnosed with Covid-19 are recovering at home , they and their caregivers are advised to wear masks when in the same room .
Medical protocols prescribe that patients suspected of infection with the virus that causes Covid-19 be isolated and given a mask to wear .
This will usually be the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , one-size-fits-all kind that ’ s rectangular when flat .
This is to protect other people by trapping virus-containing respiratory droplets .
Health-care providers who deal with such patients or with confirmed cases are directed to wear a more sophisticated mask called a respirator , which is designed to protect the user .
They come in different sizes so they can be fit to the wearer ’ s face to provide a tight seal .
That forces the user to pull air through the device ’ s filter rather than through gaps on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep out not only respiratory droplets but also smaller aerosolized particles that can carry infectious agents and float for a time through the air .
Airborne transmission has not been reported for Covid-19 , but there is a risk that certain medical procedures , such as tracheotomy and airway suction , can generate virally contaminated aerosols .
Respirators are uncomfortable to wear for a long period of time .
They generate heat and exert pressure on the face , and some people find they make it difficult to breathe , which can make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ respiratory conditions .
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued guidance on how to conserve limited gear and what to do if it runs short .
The measures , which don ’ t meet usual standards , include using respirators beyond their designated shelf life and wearing the same one to attend to several patients without removing it .
The agency said that limited reuse of respirators might become necessary but counseled caution .
It said a last resort would be to turn to untested versions , including homemade masks .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ options , with several recruiting the public to sew masks .
Adams said that people who aren ’ t trained in how to use them tend to touch their faces a lot , which could increase their chances of becoming infected with the coronavirus .
The WHO emphasizes that if you ’ re going to use a mask , it ’ s vital to do so correctly : put it on with clean hands , replace it as soon as it becomes damp , remove it from behind without touching the front , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the mask properly .
The WHO counsels against reusing masks that are made for a single use .


washingtonpost--2020-04-08--Asian Tycoons Hunt for Cheap Assets After Market Rout

Major stock indexes in the U.S. , Europe and Asia Pacific all plunged about 20 % in the first quarter in their worst rout since the 2008 financial crisis , making retail chains to hotels and property developers attractive to suitors .
Cash-rich conglomerates like Li ’ s CK group are in a position to invest when others struggle as they are built to defend against the bad times , said Jonathan Galligan , group deputy head of research at CLSA Ltd. “ This is a tremendous opportunity for any company with cash , ” Galligan said .
“ If @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the global market , right now cash is king.
” The junior Li , now chairman of CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd. , CK Asset Holdings Ltd. and CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd. , told analysts on March 19 that the group ’ s cash flow and balance sheet are strong and the impact of the virus offers “ opportunities to look at new acquisitions.
” He didn ’ t elaborate .
For the 55-year-old Li , the market rout has come as his biggest test since his father passed on the baton in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Li , 91 , came to Hong Kong as a refugee but went on to transform a plastic flower business into a ports-to-telecommunications empire spanning the world .
CK Hutchison , the main flagship , said it had HK $ 145 billion ( $ 18.7 billion ) of cash and liquid investments as of December , which is 3.6 times its short-term debt and 1.7 times its debt maturing over 2020 and 2021 , according to S & P Global Ratings .
The group spent $ 5.5 billion last year acquiring assets including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ following about $ 15.2 billion of purchases the previous year , according to data compiled by Bloomberg .
The chaos triggered by the disease is also posing another challenge for prospective buyers .
Governments are preemptively trying to ward off predatory buying , with policy makers from Australia to Spain , Italy and Germany introducing or considering stricter rules to help shield strategically important domestic companies .
The regulatory barriers may make some acquisitions harder , far from the days when Chinese conglomerates such as HNA Group Co. loaded up on debt and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ technology firms to European aviation businesses .
“ For companies like Li ’ s , they depend very much on acquisitions to grow , and that could be a big challenge in the long term , ” said Jackie Yan , an assistant professor in management and strategy at the University of Hong Kong .
Li , however , is no stranger to rejections by overseas regulators .
In 2018 , Australia rejected CK ’ s bid to buy APA Group , an operator of gas pipelines , for A $ 13 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ national security concerns .
Had it been successful , that would ’ ve been CK ’ s biggest overseas purchase .
In its wake , the pandemic is likely to leave behind many ruined businesses after billions of people spent days in lockdowns and curtailed spending .
In the U.S. , 50,000 retail stores have shut in just over a week .
More than half of U.K. firms have just three months ’ cash in reserve or less , according to a survey by the British Chambers of Commerce .
The International Finance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ received 315 requests for financing from companies and small- and medium-sized enterprises in 70 countries .
Fosun International Ltd. ’ s Chairman Guo said March 31 that the company will leverage its worldwide resources to identify opportunities .
The company had 93.6 billion yuan ( $ 13.2 billion ) in cash and equivalents last year , compared with 82.7 billion yuan of short-term debt , according to data compiled by Bloomberg .
The group is into health care , insurance and hospitality .
“ In this market dislocation , our long-term approach means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with solid fundamentals , ” Todd Barlow , managing director of Australia-based investment holding company Washington H. Soul Pattinson & Co. , said in an earnings call last month .

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washingtonpost--2020-04-08--Analysis | Hedge Fund Stars Have to Learn to Take ‘No’ for an Answer

At Graham Capital Management , which oversees about $ 15 billion and specializes in global macro , a portfolio manager called Jeremy Wien lost a ton of money speculating on equity volatility , a measure of how much share prices move that in March quadrupled in the space of a few short weeks .
The scale of the loss — $ 500 million gone from a $ 4 billion absolute return fund , according to my colleagues at Bloomberg News — suggests the U.S. firm didn ’ t step in quickly enough to stanch the bloodletting once the cracks in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ H20 Asset Management , which ran into trouble last year after loading up on illiquid debt , a fund that lost 45 % last month was downgraded by fund-rating firm Morningstar Inc. this week .
H2O , which managed $ 34 billion at the end of last year , is run by Bruno Crastes and Vincent Chailley and backed by French bank Natixis SA .
Morningstar singled out “ bold macro bets ” the pair are responsible for that it said “ were not adequately reined in by formal risk controls ” as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to negative , the lowest level of its five-rung scale : We think the balance of power at H20 is too strongly tilted in favor of portfolio managers .
As an example , risk management can not force portfolio managers to adjust exposures immediately if a risk limit has been breached because of market movements rather than active changes .
Risk managers at hedge funds need to be especially vigilant about the bets their traders are making to profit from current market dislocations or there ’ s a danger they ’ ll repeat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that kindled the global financial crisis a decade ago , albeit on a shortened and potentially more explosive timescale .
Back then , the risk management officers at the world ’ s biggest investment banks had found themselves unable to say “ no ” to increasingly risky bets .
That had disastrous consequences for the economy .
In an unsigned 2,000 word article published by the Economist in August 2008 , an unidentified risk manager at what the weekly said was a large global bank admitted that the pursuit of profit had overridden @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the time the business line would simply not take no for an answer , especially if the profits were big enough .
This made it hard to discourage transactions .
If a risk manager said no , he was immediately on a collision course with the business line .
The risk thinking therefore leaned toward giving the benefit of the doubt to the risk-takers .
Banks — and their regulators — learned a hard lesson , and have curtailed many of their risk-seeking tendencies in the intervening years .
The baton , though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it ’ s vital that traders and portfolio managers in the investment community resist the temptation to chase returns by stepping outside of their risk boundaries .
If they threaten to drift , risk officers should have the courage to restrain them — with the full and unconditional backing of their firm ’ s leaders and owners .
At least one hedge fund has long understood the need for gatekeepers of the firm ’ s risk budgets to have the status to be able to stand up to its traders .
In 2006 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his chief risk officer , a partner at Brevan Howard Asset Management as a way to ensure he had sufficient clout to go head to head when disputes arose .
Landy must have done a good job ; he was promoted to chief executive officer in October when Howard stepped back from his management role to focus on trading .
Meantime , Howard ’ s main $ 3.3 billion Master Fund is enjoying its best year since it started in 2003 , and was recently up by more than 20 % this year @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hedge fund chasing riches goes boom ?
Because , as Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane said in a 2014 speech on the broader asset management industry , the danger of a fire sale of assets increases the possibility that “ asset prices would be driven south , possibly to well below their long-term or fundamental value.
” “ As long as the music is playing , you ’ ve got to get up and dance , ” Charles Prince , who was then CEO of Citigroup Inc. , told the Financial @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before mounting losses and writedowns led to his departure from the disco .
Hedge funds should be boogying hard — but with half an eye on the door , and always , but always , accompanied by a chaperone in the shape of a respected risk officer with the power to turn down the volume .


washingtonpost--2020-04-08--Wells Fargo Gets Break From Fed Cap for Small-Business Aid

“ The change today provides additional support to small businesses hurt by the economic effects of the coronavirus , ” the Fed said in a statement Wednesday .
The Fed is requiring Wells Fargo to transfer benefits from these programs to the Treasury or approved nonprofits to support small businesses .
Shares of Wells Fargo rose as much as 4.7 % after the modification was announced , slightly outpacing the 4.2 % gain in the 24-firm KBW Bank Index .
The nation ’ s fourth-largest bank had previously approached the Fed about easing the unprecedented penalty as the coronavirus pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ imposed in February 2018 , restricts the bank from increasing assets beyond their year-end 2017 level until it enacts reforms to the regulator ’ s satisfaction .
Earlier this week , the firm pressed its case with a statement saying that the asset cap prevents it from meeting demand from small businesses under the government ’ s stimulus plan .
After the Fed ’ s announcement Wednesday , Wells Fargo put out a statement saying it will immediately expand lending to small businesses .
“ While the asset cap does not specifically restrict @ @ @ @ @ @ @ program , this action by the Federal Reserve will enable Wells Fargo to provide additional relief for our customers and communities , ” Chief Executive Officer Charlie Scharf said in the statement .
He added that the firm still has “ much to do ” on its outstanding consent orders .
The Fed cap is among the sanctions levied upon the bank for a series of consumer-abuse scandals that started coming to light in 2016 with the revelation that employees may have opened millions of accounts without customer permission to meet sales targets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Fed officials were still reluctant to ease or lift the order because they determined Wells Fargo hadn ’ t made adequate reforms .
The firm is a leading lender to small and midsize U.S. companies , homebuyers and commercial-property investors .
Last month , Bloomberg calculated that Wells Fargo has capacity for an additional $ 384 billion in lending based on its capital at the end of 2019 -- the most firepower among the nation ’ s eight largest lenders .
For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com


washingtonpost--2020-04-08--McConnell Moves on Quick Aid Vote While Pelosi Urges More Cash

“ The bill that they put forth doesn ’ t have , will not get unanimous support in the House .
It just won ’ t , ” she said in an NPR interview .
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Wednesday said he still hopes Congress will approve the additional funds he requested for the small business program .
In a CNBC interview he promised small firms that “ we will not run out of money.
” The White House opposes the more expansive plan offered by Schumer and Pelosi , but President Donald Trump said he is still hopeful @ @ @ @ @ @ @ boost the small business aid funding .
Additional rescue money can be dealt with later , he said .
In a conference call with House Democrats Wednesday , Pelosi said leaders were still trying to work out what might be possible to pass in both chambers on an expedited basis .
Representative Thomas Massie , a Kentucky Republican who two weeks ago forced House lawmakers to return to Washington to vote on the $ 2.2 trillion stimulus , indicated Wednesday on Fox Business News that he could do it again .
Massie said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their votes , and said Pelosi should consider changing House rules to allow remote voting .
She has opposed such a change .
“ I ’ m against the bill , but the main thing that I ’ m against is letting Nancy Pelosi do it in the House on her own without members being accountable , ” Massie said .
“ The Constitution requires at least half of them to vote on this.
” As of midday Wednesday , there had been more than 381,000 applications processed totaling $ 100 billion from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the SBA .
That amount hasn ’ t been given to firms yet , but rather is the value of loans registered for lenders to complete the process and disburse funds .
In addition to an extension of the PPP program , Pelosi also proposed including an extension of the expanded unemployment insurance and more direct payments to individuals .
She has estimated the bill would cost at least $ 1 trillion .
Republicans have thus far been reluctant to enact a wide-ranging phase four stimulus bill .
Now that they and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. Chamber of Commerce are demanding an infusion for PPP , Democrats could have leverage to obtain more unemployment insurance and direct payment for workers .
While there is support among Senate Democrats for expanding the Paycheck Protection Program ’ s funds , they want assurances that the pool of lenders in the program is broad enough that small businesses aren ’ t subjected to biases based on sex , race or other factors , according to a Senate Democratic aide .
The aide added that community banks , microlenders and other sources @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Schumer separately on Tuesday unveiled his own plan for a next stimulus package .
It would include a massive “ Heroes Fund ” to give hazard pay of up to $ 25,000 each for workers including grocery store employees , transit workers and pharmacists who are risking their lives to stay on the job amid the coronavirus outbreak .
That is also likely to have a price tag in the hundreds of billions of dollars .


washingtonpost--2020-04-08--Monthly Loss of $431 Billion Spurs Insurance Claims Across U.S.

Now it ’ s part of a legal fight that may reach every state over who should pay for the steep revenue losses from the deadly Covid-19 virus .
Snowden is among a dozen business owners -- including celebrity chefs , Native American casino operators , restaurant chains , a scuba-diving shop and a movie theater operator -- who sued insurers for refusing to honor policies .
They ’ re the first of what legal experts predict will be widespread litigation brought by policy holders .
Companies big and small have been forced to figure out how to pay bills @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or months .
While the government pledged help with loans and financial aid , it may not be enough for many businesses to survive .
The stakes also are huge for insurers .
They say business-interruption policies , many of which specifically exclude pandemics , were only intended for physical damage and were never priced to cover a virus outbreak .
Industry groups also oppose some states trying to require payments to small firms even if virus losses were excluded .
Companies with 100 employees or fewer could see business continuity losses of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ month , the American Property Casualty Insurance Association estimated without breaking down how much would be insured costs .
That ’ s nine times more than the $ 47 billion the industry said it paid for covered losses from the 9/11 terrorist attacks , when only a third of claims were for business interruption , according to the Insurance Information Institute .
“ They wouldn ’ t offer some of these contracts if they were required to cover pandemics , ” said Benjamin Collier , an assistant professor in the risk , insurance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s Fox School of Business .
“ They wouldn ’ t offer business interruption insurance at all , or in cases where they might be willing to , they would charge substantially different rates.
” While business-interruption policies cover the cost of closing due to everything from fires to tornado damage to burst pipes , the industry often has exclusions to avoid massive payouts all at once from a single event like a war or pandemic .
After the SARS outbreak in 2003 , some insurers added specific exclusions for losses from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for business-interruption policies can vary between insurers , even though some virus exclusions are similar .
And there are often differences for larger clients whose policies are highly customized .
Meyer Shields , an analyst at Keefe , Bruyette & Woods , said in a March 30 note that many insurers he ’ s spoken to believe a majority of their policies exclude virus-related risks .
But even carefully crafted policies may not be enough to protect the insurers , says Robert Zarco , a Miami-based lawyer who represents thousands of McDonald ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ franchisees gearing up to file business-interruption suits.Many policies include civil-authority clauses that kick in when governments bring business operations to a screeching halt , Zarco said .
“ We have plenty of grounds to argue that ’ s exactly what happened here and they still have to pay , ” he said .
Policyholders also can argue shutdowns over bug-contaminated surfaces are a form of physical damage that is a prerequisite for a lawful claim , according to John Houghtaling , a New Orleans lawyer who filed the first Covid-19 business-interruption case on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the city ’ s French Quarter .
“ I believe we have a 100 % winning position in the case , ” said Houghtaling , who filed the suit in state court in New Orleans .
He ’ s asking Judge Ethel Julian to schedule a quick hearing on his suit , which seeks a judgment barring insurers from refusing to pay business-interruption claims .
“ Pandemic outbreaks are uninsured because they are uninsurable , ” David Sampson , chief executive officer of the American Property Casualty Insurance Association , said in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pay such claims “ threatens solvency and the ability to make good on the actual promises made in existing insurance policies , ” he said.While legislators debate and lawyers wrangle , Snowden says she ’ s trying to survive until either help arrives from the government or the insurance company admits it erred.
“ I ’ m trying to sell the wigs over the internet , but it isn ’ t doing much , ” she said .
“ I thought that insurance would carry me through .
I don ’ t know @ @ @ @ @ @ @ now .
”


washingtonpost--2020-04-08--Analysis | Stock Dividend Cuts Shouldn’t Worry Investors

It couldn ’ t have come at a worse time .
A growing number of investors have turned to dividends for income in recent years as bond yields have sunk to once-unimaginable lows .
Many of them now fear a one-two blow to their income and savings — that dividends will be cut and that those cuts will cause stock prices to decline further .
A look at recent downturns , however , suggests that those fears are overdone .
The historical data on dividends per share for S & P 500 companies stretches back to 1871 , thanks to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But the latter half of the data is most relevant because distributions to shareholders , as measured by dividends as a percentage of earnings , have fallen sharply since World War II , which has given companies more room to navigate the occasional shocks .
The numbers show that dividends were often cut during downturns , although not always and not by much .
There have been 10 bear markets since 1948 , excluding the current one , as defined by a 20 % or greater decline in the S & P @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , dividends continued to grow .
In four of the remaining five , dividends declined but the cuts were hardly earth-shattering .
The average peak-to-trough decline was just 4 % , and it didn ’ t take long for dividends to recover .
The average number of years from peak to recovery , or the time it took for dividends to climb back to their previous high , was 2.5 years .
The one outlier is the freshest in investors ’ minds , which may explain their anxiety .
Dividends declined 24 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ far the worst slide since 1948 , and it took them four years to recover to their pre-crisis peak .
But this isn ’ t the financial crisis , which was an outlier in other important ways .
For one , earnings per share for the S & P 500 tumbled 92 % from June 2007 to March 2009 , the worst earnings recession since formal accounting rules were adopted in 1939 and much worse than the Great Depression .
The financial crisis also squeezed the dividends of an entire sector , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ payers of S & P 500 sectors .
Sure , it ’ s possible that this earnings recession will rival the last one , but not even the wariest Wall Street analysts are that bearish .
It ’ s also a mistake to assume that lower dividends will cause stock prices to decline further .
A feature of stock markets is that they tend to augur declines in earnings and dividends rather than the other way around .
During the five bear markets since 1948 in which dividends declined , stock prices fell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ likely that investors have already paid the price for expected dividend declines .
The rest of the time , there ’ s no apparent relationship between changes in dividends and stock prices , at least in the near term .
The correlation between year-over-year changes in S & P 500 dividends and price , for example , was 0.06 from 1948 to 2019 , which is to say no correlation at all .
( A correlation of 1 implies that two variables move perfectly in the same direction , whereas a correlation of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ perfectly in the opposite direction . )
Of course , when it comes to individual stocks , all bets are off because any one company can struggle for years or fail altogether .
But few investors are betting on one company , or even just a handful of them .
More often , they assemble a broad basket of stocks or hand their money to stock funds , both of which more closely resemble broad-market gauges such as the S & P 500 .
Still , when confronted with the market ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that this crisis isn ’ t comparable to previous ones — that the coronavirus isn ’ t merely a speed bump but a longer-lasting drag on the U.S. economy and businesses .
That may prove to be true , but let ’ s be mindful that just a few months ago , the “ this time is different ” chorus was howling that U.S. companies had reached a new plateau of high profits that justified seemingly any stock price .
As we now know , it wasn ’ t different then and it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ There are many important things to worry about in the fight against coronavirus .
Investors need not add dividends to that list .


washingtonpost--2020-04-07--Analysis | What We Really Want to Know When Wuhan Reopens

This information vacuum touches all aspects of society , even stock investing .
Unless we can travel around to conduct due diligence — still very difficult — we have no sense of how bad the economy is .
Beijing may have staved off a cliff-dropping bear run earlier this year by keeping a lid on vital information , but officials did themselves no favors by making the equity market an unpalatable investment destination .
High-frequency macro statistics such as unemployment can give us a sense of how the virus ravages consumer confidence , which underpins earnings for key sectors including @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get their hands on this kind of data very quickly .
Thanks to weekly statistics published by the Department of Labor , we know the virus claimed about 10 million jobs in just two weeks , the worst on record .
Good luck finding the equivalent in China .
The National Bureau of Statistics surveys the urban unemployment rate only monthly .
Even then , its result is almost certainly skewed to the sunny side , because it doesn ’ t cover enough of the private businesses that are more likely to lay @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whopping 130 million jobs may be at risk , estimates HSBC Holdings Plc , and that ’ s just in the urban retail and restaurant sectors .
The March survey number could give us some insight , but we won ’ t see that until April 17 .
Even before the worst of the global virus outbreak , China ’ s jobless rate had jumped by almost one percentage point to 6.2 % in February , the highest on record .
Then consider efforts to get back to work , with Hubei province @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
China has proudly announced that almost all employees at large industrial enterprises have restarted .
But a return to work doesn ’ t equate to a return to production , or a return to sales , which we have very little data on .
Intuitively , we know the picture can ’ t be pretty .
Many exporters in China can ’ t earn revenue until their goods are delivered .
As the virus takes spreads globally , overseas demand is sinking and transportation time is lengthening .
So China Inc. ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ news for stocks , because companies not only can ’ t make money but have to pay all the operational fixed costs .
In other markets , earnings estimates can serve as a useful guide .
During the global financial crisis , for instance , the S & P 500 Index bottomed at about the same time as analysts ’ one-year forward earnings expectations .
That ’ s never been the case with Chinese stocks , and is unlikely to change because due diligence is hard work .
This explains why , despite @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any talk of revival in China ’ s stock market has been conspicuously absent .
The benchmark CSI 300 Index has been range-bound lately , down about 7 % for the year — there ’ s simply no information to trade on .
By comparison , a mere leveling of New York ’ s coronavirus fatalities has already gotten U.S. investors excited .


washingtonpost--2020-03-28--Analysis | Netflix Watches as Instagram Unites a Quarantined World

I don ’ t know why I ’ m watching .
“ Why am I watching this ?
, ” one of her thousands of other viewers suddenly posts in the scrolling comments , as if from my thoughts to that person ’ s fingertips .
Having our normal daily lives upended by the coronavirus has heightened the demand for entertainment — and not just Netflix .
We ’ re looking for content that provides some semblance of human connection , intermittent LOL moments to briefly escape reality .
As Kevin Roose put it in the New York Times last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ us to use the internet as it was always meant to be used.
” There ’ s also something comforting about seeing celebrities going through the same thing as everyone else , flattening the societal hierarchy so that their feeds run alongside that of our own friends and families .
Social media is a place for wholesale interaction , whether it be through memes , amateur TikTok dances , silly Snapchat snaps , Instagram boomerangs of the night ’ s meal or photos of the view outside , where we all suddenly wish @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just enough pleasant distraction ; we don ’ t have to commit our full attention to a 45-minute TV episode , especially when there ’ s already too much lonely , idle couch viewing happening because of the shelter-in-place orders .
Kantar , a consumer research firm , is finding that as countries move deeper into the pandemic , TV viewing and social media engagement both rise by more than 60 % .
( At that rate , we could quickly grow bored with apps like Netflix and Disney+ . )
The U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stages , but in Italy , one of the hardest-hit countries , Facebook Inc. said that Instagram and Facebook Live views doubled in a week .
That yearning for connection is giving more adults a window into why younger people are so amused with watching their peers and celebrities just going about their lives — even when they appear to be doing nothing special at all .
George Costanza would love it : videos about nothing .
But if that is what ’ s missing from Netflix and other TV , could it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
Perhaps the future of streaming is to aggregate both studio-produced content and user-generated content in a way that allows you to seamlessly scroll between both .
That ’ s how we ’ re starting to use entertainment , but that ’ s not yet how it ’ s delivered to us .
Facebook Watch is a step toward the idea , though it has a long way to go .
And Google ’ s YouTube is more of a video-search platform than a sit-back-and-stream service ( notwithstanding its YouTube TV subscription for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ streaming app launching April 6 , borrows from the brevity of user-generated social content , but leaves out the human-connection aspect .
It ’ s the brainchild of Jeffrey Katzenberg and Meg Whitman , a pair of Hollywood and tech old timers , who say the name is short for “ quick bites ” ( though it ’ s pronounced “ qwih-bee ” ) .
All of its programs will have episodes that are 10 minutes long or less .
Plenty have scoffed at the idea of Quibi trying to get 25- to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for an app with bite-size content that still contains ad interruptions .
Yet , Katzenberg and Whitman have managed to raise nearly $ 2 billion for the service and have struck production deals with major studios and entertainers , including Chrissy Teigen and actress Sophie Turner .
Social media used to be something college kids did on their laptops , separate from TV time .
Now we all do it on our phones , often while the TV is playing .
It shows that what ’ s missing from Netflix , Disney+ and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ability to connect with one another .


washingtonpost--2020-03-28--Susan Collins Calls on Mnuchin to Defer Tariffs for U.S. Companies

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washingtonpost--2020-03-27--Trump Signs $2 Trillion Virus Bill, Largest Ever U.S. Stimulus

The hard-won plan willprovide a massive injection of loans , tax breaks and direct payments to large corporations , small businesses and individuals whose revenue and income have plummeted under “ social distancing ” restrictions meant to slow the virus ’ spread .
Stocks finished Friday in the red following a three-day rally .
Traders cut positions ahead of the weekend despite passage of the stimulus bill .
The S & P 500 fell 3.4 % while the Dow dropped 4.1 % .
The prospect of a long-term blow to the economy has prompted Trump to consider easing federal guidelines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health experts and some members of his own administration they should stay in place for longer .
Trump has repeatedly spoken of “ re-opening ” the country by Easter and on Thursday he told governors he would rank different areas of the country based on risk level in order to allow states to eventually relax quarantine and social distancing measures .
The package provides roughly $ 500 billion in loans and other assistance for major companies , including $ 62 billion for the airline sector , as well as cities and states struggling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 350 billion in aid for small businesses and offers $ 1,200 direct payments to middle- and low-income American adults , plus $ 500 for each child .
Hospitals would receive $ 117 billion in assistance , as many become overwhelmed with virus patients .
Unemployment insurance would also grow to $ 600 per week , on top of existing state benefits .
The size of the package far surpasses the $ 800 billion measure signed by former President Barack Obama following the 2008 financial crisis .
Combined with Federal Reserve measures , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in stimulus to the economy , according to chief White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow .
But the plan might not be enough to stave off an economic recession or another spike in unemployment .
Even before it passed , leaders in Congress said another round of stimulus would almost surely be needed .
The package came together over several days of marathon talks between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin , Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer .
The Senate passed the bill on Wednesday with an overwhelming 96-0 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the $ 500 billion corporate assistance fund and they ultimately won language requiring the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve to publish who receives loans every seven days .
The bill was held up for days until the language was added , sparking a round of partisan squabbling in Washington .
Leaders also included conditions to the aid , including the ability of the Treasury Department to take equity stakes in companies that require cash assistance .
The House planned to swiftly pass the stimulus package on Friday but the plan hit a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a libertarian Republican from Kentucky , suggested he would delay a vote until lawmakers returned to Washington to cast their votes in person .
Trump and lawmakers in both parties chided Massie for forcing hundreds of members to leave their home states for a maneuver that would ultimately fail to stop passage of the bill .
“ Heading to Washington to vote on pandemic legislation , ” New York Republican Peter King wrote on Twitter .
“ Because of one member of Congress refusing to allow emergency action entire Congress must be called @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of infection and risk of legislation being delayed .
Disgraceful .
Irresponsible .
”


washingtonpost--2020-03-28--$2 Trillion Virus Bill Leaves ‘Gaping Holes’ for Restaurant Industry

The stimulus pot includes about $ 350 billion for small businesses loans , which won ’ t have to be paid back if they are used to make payroll , or pay mortgages , rents , utilities or other coronavirus-related expenses .
But without a regulatory framework for how—and under what conditions—the loans will be forgiven , many restaurant owners may be been left in limbo .
And the bill does little to assist those who ’ ve already had to fire employees .
The bill both increases the number of businesses eligible for the loans and the amount the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than 500 employees to qualify , which includes both full-time , part-time and “ other basis ” staffers .
Loans are capped at 2.5 times the outfit ’ s average monthly payroll , with a maximum loan amount of $ 10 million .
The money is good news for restaurants that are still operating that need an influx of cash to keep people employed , experts say .
But small business owners that have already fired their workers have little clarity on whether they are eligible to apply for the loans .
“ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the restaurant industry that need to be plugged , ” said Lee Jacobs , partner at New York-based hospitality firm Helbraun & Levey .
“ The stimulus bill is a good start , it takes care of employees that have already applied for unemployment ; it takes care of the businesses and restaurants that made the decision to weather the storm .
But it does nothing for those restaurants that were forced to close or terminate their staff before the government acted.
” “ Do I hire people back now ?
It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the robust unemployment package , to let them stay on that , ” Colicchio said , adding that he anticipates a long , slow process of filling seats once the crisis begins to fade , with ongoing health concerns from customers who have gotten used to eating in their living rooms .
“ We don ’ t want restaurants to have no money one month in , and we ’ re closing again.
” “ Many people are at zero or very low revenue .
It ’ s a day-by-day analysis of how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the next day .
A very real fear among restaurants : when will we have access to these funds ?
” she asks .
“ And if we don ’ t have the ability to re-open in time , what happens to those funds ?
” “ I wish we could take the house apart instead of burning it , which is what ’ s happening in front of our eyes , ” said celebrity chef Andrew Zimmern , host of What ’ s Eating America on MSNBC .
“ But when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experienced restaurants , you don ’ t create more success , you create more uncertainty.
” Deborah Williamson , the owner of James restaurant in Brooklyn , says that when the crisis began , she had to reinvent her business in just 48 hours .
Williamson transformed her 40-seat boutique farm-to-table restaurant in the heart of Prospect Heights from a fully sit-down restaurant with a carryout option to a takeout and corner store grocer .
Eighty percent of her employees were let go , turning a team of 28 staffers to a “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ days a week .
Williamson ’ s new takeout business plan went into effect on March 16 , after non-essential businesses were prompted to shut down due to the coronavirus .
That day , the restaurant brought in just $ 400 compared to what used to be $ 11,000 on average .
Since then , revenue has averaged $ 1,500 a day .
“ It ’ s down to me and a couple of people to bring together the elements of a small business , ” Williamson said , adding that “ it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ the juggle is just insane.
” James is one of the last restaurants standing in the neighborhood , and Williamson says she fears it would be extremely difficult to revive her restaurant if it were to shut down .
“ We know this legislation is not adequate to ensure local restaurants survive this crisis , but it gives us a lifeline to keep our businesses afloat , pay our bills and help our employees for the next couple of months , ” write the founders of the Independent Restaurant Coalition on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It also gives us some time to gear up and go back to Congress to fight for more .
”


washingtonpost--2020-03-28--A Guide to Who’s Seeking Stimulus, From Manufacturers to Casinos

“ Essentially , the U.S. government is providing funds to motivate airlines to continue air service and not furlough any @ @ @ @ @ of incredibly low demand for air travel , ” Doug Parker , chief executive officer @ @ @ @ @ , said in a message to employees Thursday .
“ We are confident those funds @ @ @ @ @ high cash position , will allow us to ride through even the worst of potential @ @ @ @ @ goal of the government aid is to avoid job cuts , and airlines are rushing @ @ @ @ @ Executives are taking pay cuts , freezing hiring and offering voluntary unpaid leaves to employees @ @ @ @ @ flying , carriers are dramatically curtailing flight schedules .


washingtonpost--2020-03-27--How to Handle $350 Billion in Loans? No One Knows

“ There ’ s a lot we still don ’ t know , ” said Karen Harned , executive director of the Small Business Legal Center at the National Federation of Independent Business , the largest small-business association in the country .
Unknowns include : how long it will take for companies to get checks .
She tried applying for existing disaster loans from the Small Business Administration more than a week ago and hasn ’ t heard back .
She emailed to follow up and received a message that the inbox was full .
She joined a call Wednesday @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with an SBA representative .
It was cut short when too many people joined , crashing the line.
“ It was just craziness , honestly , the last few weeks , ” said Mayorga , whose travel agency creates custom vacations for about $ 3,000 and has largely ground to a halt amid shutdowns to try to contain the coronavirus pandemic .
Shoring up the roughly 30 million small- and medium-size businesses in the U.S. is a key element of the $ 2 trillion stimulus package .
These businesses employ about half of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of net employment gains in recent years .
Their financial distress has contributed to a record 3.28 million Americans filing for unemployment last week .
The legislation is waiving some paperwork requirements to speed up the loans , and the government has signaled urgency .
“ By the end of next week we want all the banks to be able to originate loans same day , ” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said .
The agency is expected to issue guidance on how lenders move forward within a week of the president signing it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , who handles congressional relations for the Independent Community Bankers of America .
Among major question marks : how the secondary market would work if banks want to sell off the loans to others ; whether the federal government would have to purchase some of the notes itself ; and which financial technology lenders can participate .
Bill Koontz , an SBA spokesman , said the agency is scrambling to keep up with demand for its existing disaster loan program to help businesses , even as its site has been down repeatedly because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to comment on pending legislation until it gets passed .
“ They have at least promised a very expedited process , ” said Sandy Baruah , a former SBA administrator who helped steer the agency ’ s response to the 2008 financial crisis .
“ If they ’ re able to deliver on that promise , I think it could have a real positive impact on mitigating the economic damage and the individual damage to small businesses , and those who work for them.
” There are two major programs in the bill @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 10 billion for grants of as much as $ 10,000 per business to cover expenses .
The government would advance the money within three days to businesses applying for an SBA disaster loan .
The $ 350 billion SBA loan program provides a lot more -- up to $ 10 million per firm -- and companies can get the debt written off under certain conditions , such as retaining employees and keeping salaries above a certain level , and rehiring those already let go .
On the ground , small businesses may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a time when the pandemic is still surging and tens of millions of Americans are under lockdown orders .
Borrowing a chunk of money without knowing when -- if ever -- their business will again turn a profit is too big a risk for many owners and they may instead opt to close , said Amanda Ballantyne , national director for small business lobby group The Main Street Alliance .
Peter Gaetano owns a barbershop in Carmel , a town of about 30,000 in New York state .
Despite operating through previous recessions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the state ordered non-essential stores closed .
He says he had to let his three staff go .
“ I have no answers for what I ’ m going to do , ” said Gaetano , 41 , who has two young kids .
The family relies on the roughly $ 60,000 a year he makes for the mortgage payments and other bills .


washingtonpost--2020-05-13--Analysis | Debt Crisis, Brexit, Now Virus. Can the EU Survive?

Having forecast the biggest decline in regional output since World War II , the European Commission warned that the unevenness of contractions and recoveries country-to-country will put at risk the survival of the euro area .
The common currency bloc , encompassing 19 countries , is at the core of the European unification project but lacks many of the tools that regular economies can deploy .
There ’ s no common treasury to direct funds where they are needed and , so far , little agreement on proposals to help out poorer nations .
Less wealthy southern members are demanding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but without the strings that are typically attached .
Wealthier nations , who have long seen themselves as being asked to bankroll profligate southerners , are resisting .
A court ruling in the EU ’ s most powerful state .
Germany ’ s constitutional court in early May disputed the legitimacy of the European Central Bank ’ s sovereign bond purchases program , possibly limiting the bank ’ s firepower in the future .
Potentially more damaging , the ruling challenges the authority of the European Court of Justice as the ultimate arbiter @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s rejection of an ECJ ruling may embolden others to make challenges , including the illiberal governments in Eastern Europe that have sought to upend the EU ’ s core principles of the rule of law and of checks and balances .
The German ruling thus raises risks for the entire legal order in the EU and for the first time begs a fundamental question : If EU law doesn ’ t take primacy over national law , how can a single market and a single currency extending beyond national borders function @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proved greatly exaggerated .
In the past decade alone , a sovereign debt crisis almost led to the disintegration of the single currency .
An immigration wave in 2015 found the EU equally unprepared , as the arrival of refugees totaling some 0.2 % of the bloc ’ s population caused panic in governments .
A year later , the U.K. stunned the world by voting to leave the bloc , while a surge in support for populist leaders across the continent produced new prophecies of doom .
The EU has managed to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but muddling through no less .
One popular theory is they ’ re interconnected , with each crisis feeding into the next and leaving a legacy of unresolved issues while exposing the institutional shortcomings of the European project .
Former EC President Jean-Claude Juncker called it a “ polycrisis.
” For instance , the euro area shares a currency but not a proper common budget , the single market is incomplete , capital markets are fragmented and a long-running push for banking union remains unresolved .
Decision-making is complex : Only the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ arm ) can propose legislation , but the main legislator is the Council of the European Union , consisting of national governments , which can only take decisions by unanimity or a large majority .
Approval for most decisions is needed by the European Parliament , a fragmented group of directly elected lawmakers chosen by proportional representation from member states .
Support of several political factions is required to garner a simple majority .
In a word , sovereignty .
National governments answer to their own voters and need to abide by national @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in essence undermines efforts to make strategic decisions about the bloc as a whole .
In late February , just as the coronavirus was beginning to wreak havoc across the EU , its leaders spent 28 hours bickering over fractions of a percentage point of the bloc ’ s relatively small budget , many keen to show how they defended national interest above all .
Because of such division and the need for unanimity or sizable majorities , decisions are usually taken on the basis of finding the lowest common denominator .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does not lend itself to handling urgent and complex crises .
Bad enough for Merkel and France President Emmanuel Macron to make dire warnings .
Past experience shows that EU leaders will do just about enough to salvage the situation and avoid the worst , according to Janis Emmanouilidis , a Brussels-based analyst at the European Policy Centre .
Doomsayers have consistently underestimated the political will of Europe ’ s establishment to keep it together , but doing only enough to avoid implosion , and only after all other options have been exhausted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the long term .
The EU ’ s share in global economic output has been shrinking , the bloc has been unable to display foreign policy muscle and appears increasingly squeezed between the U.S. and China .
Critics warn that if the bloc ’ s leaders keep defending petty interests , the EU may end up becoming ever more irrelevant and , as the poet T.S .
Eliot once put it , will end “ not with a bang but with a whimper .
”


washingtonpost--2020-05-13--Analysis | American States Should Chase This Taiwan Company Instead

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is the world ’ s most important chip company .
It makes high-end components using the best technology for clients including Apple Inc. , Qualcomm Inc. , Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc .
Yet it produces the bulk of its chips at three locations in Taiwan with additional capacity in China .
TSMC has barely any footprint in America , owning one old factory in Washington state which it bought 20 years ago .
U.S. national security concerns , protectionis , and a growing need to diversify have led me to conclude that a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
A plan is now under discussion , but not yet confirmed , according to a report by the Wall Street Journal this week .
State governors need to pay attention .
They ’ ve been burnt before , or at least Wisconsin ’ s Scott Walker has .
His decision to push ahead with the Foxconn facility in 2017 , at the cost of up to $ 3 billion in taxpayer-funded subsidies , is a major reason that the Republican governor lost reelection the following year .
When then-presidential candidate Donald Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ manufacturing in 2016 , Foxconn ’ s Gou put his team to work .
The company is famous for assembling iPhones using hundreds of thousands of factory workers , mostly in China .
As he built his empire , Gou accumulated decades of experience pitting local and national governments against each other with the promise of jobs and economic prosperity .
Quite often , the plans never came to fruition , no matter how willing the locals were to make him a sweetheart deal .
Within months of Trump ’ s victory , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including Michigan , Ohio , Pennsylvania , Illinois and Indiana — eager to land what was described as a once-in-a-generation opportunity .
In the end , Wisconsin ’ s package convinced Foxconn to break ground in Racine County as preparation for a massive flat-panel display factory that would provide 13,000 manufacturing jobs .
I wrote back then , many times , that these plans didn ’ t add up .
Flat screens aren ’ t native to American industry and the country lacks the trained personnel to staff such a facility .
There @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little chance of strong growth .
The product is too fragile to ship long distances .
Foxconn has since scaled back its plans and failed to hit some employment targets required to receive incentives .
But just 60 miles away from Foxconn ’ s Taipei headquarters sits TSMC , a company that would be a much better fit for the U.S. With tensions rising between Beijing and Washington , and the Covid-19 pandemic highlighting the risks to America having much of its technology supply chain overseas , TSMC is facing increasing pressure to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ California might seem the obvious place to host a new factory .
After all , that ’ s where TSMC ’ s largest clients are based .
Ironically , given that it ’ s home to Silicon Valley — a name derived from the metal used to make integrated circuits — the state has relatively few chip manufacturing facilities .
The big names of three decades ago have either merged , or gone fabless — meaning they design without making their own chips .
In fact , America ’ s semiconductor production sector @ @ @ @ @ @ @ states around the country , according to my analysis of company data and press reports .
( 1 ) That could make a new TSMC facility in the U.S. up for grabs .
And if making high-end display panels was a bad fit for Wisconsin , a chip factory fits well in the current and future structure of American industry .
To this day , the U.S. remains the global leader in semiconductor design , development and manufacturing , with its universities churning out the best electrical and electronics engineers .
TSMC founder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford , while the current chairman , Mark Liu , got his Ph.D from the University of California , Berkeley .
Exactly how many jobs a U.S. fab might create is hard to predict .
Earlier this year , Liu told investors that any factory there would deploy the company ’ s most advanced technologies , which work best at scale .
As a comparison , TSMC employs over 10,000 people at its Tainan facilities , which utilize leading-edge manufacturing processes for Apple ’ s iPhone chips , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in coming years .
Given that semiconductor manufacturing engineer salaries in America can top $ 100,000 , luring even half that number of jobs would be a boon for any state .
With the prospect of the world ’ s eighth-largest tech company by market value looking for a new place to set up shop , U.S. governors are likely to find themselves back in the chase .


washingtonpost--2020-05-13--Analysis | Why the U.S. Has Shunned Negative Interest Rates

Implied yields on futures contracts linked to the federal funds rate have gone below zero in recent days .
That suggests bets that the Fed will by mid-2021 cut its key rate below the current range of zero to 0.25 % , something it ’ s never done .
Accounting technicalities are also influencing the trading , analysts say .
The theory goes that by introducing sub-zero rates , investors would shift to purchasing other short-term or riskier assets and the rates on those assets would fall , making borrowing cheaper across a range of securities and providing a spur @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pushed back against the idea of negative rates .
During the last recession , which ended in 2009 , Fed officials considered a variety of tools and chose not to deploy them , Powell has pointed out in the past .
“ We do not see negative policy rates as likely to be an appropriate policy response here in the U.S. , ” he told reporters on March 15 .
In more recent comments , Fed colleagues have agreed without completely ruling out the option .
On May 11 , Federal Reserve Bank @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ At best , we ’ d have to study it more , but I don ’ t anticipate that being a tool we would be using in the U.S. ” On the same day , Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said “ I am not a big fan of going into the negative rate territory.
” For the most part , it ’ s unclear how much of an economic gain negative rates would deliver , and there are worries they could roil financial markets .
In a 2010 memo , Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ banks and money market funds .
Some economists argue that there ’ s a limit on how far rates can be pushed down before they perversely start to hurt the economy .
Banks could face pinched profits and also need to pay to hold deposits at the Fed rather than collect interest , which could make them even less likely to provide credit .
The risk in money markets relates to concerns that investors could start boycotting them and seek yield elsewhere .
The U.S. relies on these markets -- at a size @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than economies elsewhere .
In minutes of an October Fed meeting , officials saw the risk of “ significant complexity or distortions to the financial system.
” Moreover , it ’ s a policy that would arguably target the wrong end of the yield curve , as longer-term rates are the benchmark for mortgage borrowing and corporate credit .
While Trump has repeatedly called on the Fed to consider negative rates , other lawmakers may think otherwise .
There are even suggestions it could be illegal .
In 2008 , the Fed gained @ @ @ @ @ @ @ banks interest on reserve balances deposited at the central bank .
It ’ s not clear whether that authority extends to establishing negative rates on those reserves .
When the Fed first reduced rates to a range of zero to 0.25 % in 2008 and kept them there for seven years , it was frequently criticized by lawmakers for short-changing savers .
The European Central Bank became the first major institution to push short-term interest rates below zero in 2014 , as it tried to combat a lingering economic slump .
The Bank @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 , and by the middle of that year some 500 million people in a quarter of the world ’ s economies ended up living with rates in the red .
Since central banks provide a benchmark for all borrowing costs , negative rates spread to a range of fixed-income securities .
Central bankers have recently shown a reluctance to push benchmark rates deeper into negative territory and banks have criticized the policy .
Sweden ’ s Riksbank became the first major central bank to end its policy of zero rates in December @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and pledged to buy a sweeping amount of assets .
But they have other tools -- such as larger-scale bond purchases and committing to stronger interest-rate guidance to try to combat the recession .
Yield-curve control -- whereby the Fed targets a specific level of yield on government bonds at one or more maturities -- may be another efficient way to tether borrowing costs that are most relevant to growth .
The Fed studied the possibility of lowering rates below zero in the 2008-2009 financial crisis and its aftermath and found it “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ said in March 2019 .


washingtonpost--2020-05-13--Analysis | Tencent Shows It’s Rough Even After the Storm Clears


washingtonpost--2020-05-12--Analysis | Indonesia Walks a Fine Line Between Bailouts, Downgrades

This time , they may not return .
The key reason is the pile of debt at state-owned enterprises that President Joko Widodo , known as Jokowi , has built up since taking office in 2014 .
As the coronavirus outbreak forces SOE defaults and restructuring to play out on the international stage , investors are now wondering whether Jakarta — which still enjoys an investment-grade rating — can keep its distance and avoid being dragged into one bailout after another .
The virus claimed its first corporate victim from the public sector in April , when Perum Perumnas , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a 200 billion rupiah ( $ 13.4 million ) note .
But PT Garuda Indonesia , the national airline 60 % owned by the government , makes a better example of the debt labyrinth that Jakarta can ’ t easily escape .
The flagship carrier is in trouble .
Garuda has a $ 500 million dollar sukuk due June 3 , but sat on only $ 299 million cash at the end of 2019 .
The government plans to restructure the financing and arrange another $ 500 million for working capital .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cash injection , Bloomberg News reported Monday .
If Garuda was left to fend for itself , other SOEs would follow it into distress .
The airline buys fuel from PT Pertamina and airport services from PT Angkasa Pura , and is a large client of state-owned mega banks .
Debt to other SOEs accounts for more than 30 % of its total liabilities , or almost $ 1.2 billion , data compiled from the company ’ s 2019 filings show .
State-owned insurer Asuransi Indonesia Kredit PT guarantees the class A tranche @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trillion rupiah in asset-backed securities issued in July 2018 , which are backed by ticket sales to Jeddah and Medina .
There ’ s a problem : Saudi Arabia has suspended Muslim pilgrimages due to the pandemic .
During Widodo ’ s first five-year term , the balance sheet of Indonesia ’ s state companies went from squeaky clean to junk grade .
An infrastructure enthusiast but pinched by the Southeast Asian nation ’ s twin trade and fiscal deficits , Widodo found his model in China , where state-owned entities shoulder much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The most visible success of his strategy was a building boom that culminated with the opening of the capital ’ s first subway line last year .
Now , the president has to face an ugly reality .
We can expect the ratio of net debt at Indonesian SOEs to range from 4.5 times to 5.5 times earnings before interest , taxes , depreciation and amortization this year , compared to 1.6 times from his first year in office , S & P Global Ratings estimates .
The government needs to resist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ good reason — its own coffers are empty .
To blunt damage from the pandemic , Indonesia removed its long-time 3 % fiscal deficit cap and raised it to a new target of 5.1 % , translating to additional financing needs of $ 27 billion .
This highlights the challenge that Widodo took on when he launched his infrastructure drive almost six years ago .
Under his presidency , SOEs have become more pervasive than in any country except China , according to a recent survey by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ line between placating their interests and keeping the government ’ s own balance sheet clean ?
China has already paid a heavy price .
Its sovereign bond market remains underdeveloped .
This is due in part to foreign buyers being wary of SOE debt , even though Beijing repeatedly says it doesn ’ t guarantee obligations issued by such enterprises — they ’ ve been allowed to default since early 2015 — or by local government financing vehicles.Indonesia will need to establish this kind of separation , at a minimum .
Last month @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s credit outlook to negative while keeping the BBB rating .
If Jakarta starts to bail out its state enterprises , its investment-grade rating may vanish .


washingtonpost--2020-05-08--Analysis | The U.S. Postal Service Was in Bad Shape. Then the Virus Came

It ’ s supposed to fund itself .
Though its roots go back to 1775 , when Benjamin Franklin was appointed the first postmaster general , the modern Postal Service was established in 1971 as an independent agency , with a mandate to provide universal mail delivery services at a fair price .
The Postal Service boasts that it would rank 44th in the Fortune 500 if it were a private company , with revenue of more than $ 71 billion in fiscal 2019 .
Most of that revenue comes from “ market-dominant ” products , including first-class mail and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ comes from competitive products , such as priority mail and packages , pitting the Postal Service against FedEx Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc .
The Postal Service has limited authority to boost its revenue by introducing new products or increasing postal rates , which must be approved by the Postal Regulatory Commission .
Expenses have outpaced revenue for 13 years straight , with net losses totaling $ 77.8 billion through fiscal 2019 .
The Postal Service hasn ’ t been able to make required payments for employee health care and pension benefits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that required it , unlike other federal agencies , to fully pre-fund health benefits for future retirees over a period of 10 years .
Unfunded health care and pension liabilities neared $ 120 billion as of Sept. 30 , 2019 .
The Government Accountability Office wrote in a May 7 report that the Postal Service ’ s “ mission and financial solvency are increasingly in peril ” if Congress doesn ’ t give it a lifeline or overhaul its business model .
The Postal Service has to reach more addresses each year , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ during the 2007-2009 recession and continued to drop as consumers and businesses turned to email , online payments and digital advertising .
That meant a steep reduction in profitable first-class mail .
But employee compensation and benefits keep rising , accounting for almost 80 % of operating expenses in fiscal 2019 .
Wage increases are guaranteed in collective bargaining agreements with postal workers .
Things have gone from bad to worse .
In March , the Postal Service projected as much as a 50 % decline in mail volume through Sept. 30 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On April 10 , Postmaster General Megan Brennan warned that the pandemic would add to net operating losses by more than $ 22 billion over 18 months , and by $ 54 billion over the long term .
( Brennan , who had announced her plan to retire in October , will be succeeded on June 15 by Louis DeJoy , a North Carolina businessman and major donor to the Republican Party . )
Yes , but many are fully privatized and can take actions the U.S .
Postal Service can ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ instance , Royal Mail Plc announced it was temporarily ending Saturday delivery , with many workers absent due to Covid-19 .
That option is off-limits in the U.S. , where Congress has required the Postal Service to maintain six-day delivery .
Some foreign postal services also have funding mechanisms that the U.S .
Postal Service lacks .
In Japan , for instance , mail delivery from Japan Post Holdings Co. is partially underwritten by revenue from the company ’ s other business lines , such as banking and life insurance .
House Democrats @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 25 billion in emergency funds as part of a coronavirus relief package , but the White House opposed doling out cash with no strings attached .
Instead , the $ 2.2 trillion stimulus package signed into law March 27 included a $ 10 billion line of credit with the Treasury Department .
Democrats and some Republicans renewed the call for emergency funding in the next tranche of virus aid .
Separately , the House passed a bill in February that would repeal the mandate for the Postal Service to make prefunding payments @ @ @ @ @ @ @ past , lawmakers have proposed sweeping changes -- shifting some health care costs to Medicare , authorizing a one-time increase in postal rates , reducing door-to-door delivery , permitting more sales of nonpostal products -- but those didn ’ t advance .
He said he will “ never let our Post Office fail ” but threatened to withhold aid unless the Postal Service raises its package delivery prices , which he says are too low and benefit Amazon -- whose chief executive officer , Jeff Bezos , also owns the Washington Post , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ His budget request called for more flexible pricing on “ nonessential ” mail and packages , as well as lower employee pay , less frequent mail delivery and increased use of private sector partners for mail sorting .
The Trump administration could demand those changes or directly take control of key Postal Service operations in exchange for a loan .
Amazon employs the Postal Service to complete what ’ s called the “ last mile ” of delivery , with letter carriers dropping off packages at some 160 million residences and businesses daily @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 2013 to deliver packages on Sundays , both sides have declared their business relationship a success .
Trump , in 2018 , repeated a claim that the Postal Service loses “ $ 1.50 on average for each package it delivers for Amazon.
” The genesis of that idea is evidently an April 2017 Citigroup research note , which estimated that every delivery by the Postal Service ’ s parcel business -- not just of products from Amazon -- should cost $ 1.46 more to reflect “ true economic cost.
” The contract @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Service says it makes money on the deal .
Plus , it ’ s legally prohibited from charging shippers less than its delivery costs .


washingtonpost--2020-05-13--Analysis | Why Virus Woes Have Put Bond ETFs Under a Microscope

Mutual funds allow small investors to pool their money and benefit from the expertise of professional money managers .
Index funds and traditional ETFs take a different approach .
Instead of hiring managers to actively buy and sell stocks , they seek to replicate the performance of a basket of securities ( although a small sliver of the ETF market is actively managed ) .
That allows investors who want some emerging-market or small-cap stocks in their portfolio to avoid the cost , hassle or risk of picking individual companies .
Index funds try to replicate the performance of a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by buying all the stocks that comprise the index .
In an ETF , investors are buying a share in a bundle of the same securities , and that ETF share can be bought and sold much like a share of stock .
The ETFs themselves engage in less trading of assets , because the underlying securities don ’ t have to be bought or sold when a share changes hands .
That smaller turnover means a lower tax bill .
ETFs currently have $ 4 trillion in assets , down from their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ February , as investors have pared back holdings in the flight to cash over fears of the economic damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic .
Equity funds hold about $ 2.49 trillion , while those focused on bonds contain $ 770 billion .
The most popular ETFs are the simplest , those that track the broad stock market .
But these days ETFs come in thousands of flavors and are popular with hedge funds and institutional investors as well as moms and pops .
An increasing number track less-traded markets such as junk @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to enhance returns , or laser-in on niche segments of the investable universe .
That has made regulators consider whether the more exotic versions need to be reined in lest they damage investors and markets alike .
Critics and regulators have long voiced concerns that fixed-income ETFs , whose shares are much more liquid than the assets the funds hold , may exacerbate a sell-off as investors scramble to redeem their holdings during periods of market stress.The likes of Mohamed El-Erian of Allianz SE and Scott Minerd at Guggenheim Partners have suggested they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in illiquid credit markets where they have an outsized trading share .
After finding that fixed-income ETFs fueled volatile trading during August 2015 ’ s stock-market rout , regulators have long planned to closely watch the funds ’ activity and performance during the next downturn .
That time arrived in March .
Bond ETFs showed signs of liquidity stress , with share prices trading at persistent and deep discounts to the value of the underlying assets .
The historical volatility plaguing American bond markets created unprecedented dislocations in the ETFs that track them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ normally step in to repair price inconsistencies .
In theory , the price of all of an ETF ’ s shares should be exactly the same as the value of its net assets .
In practice , it ’ s not uncommon for what ’ s known as the Net Asset Value ( or NAV ) to drop below the share prices , but such small discrepancies are usually quickly wiped away .
As the coronavirus outbreak unleashed historical turbulence in financial markets and liquidity dries up , ETFs spanning the bond spectrum @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the hardest hit were iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF , or LQD , and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond , ticker TLT .
That prompted worries that investors scrambling to redeem their holdings would overwhelm the managers , or the traders who channel bonds into and out of the funds -- worries that apparently led the Fed to act .
The turmoil led the U.S. Federal Reserve to support corporate bonds and eligible credit ETFs in March , sparking a rally and unprecedented bond issuance .
Since then , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and the ETFs that buy those bonds erased earlier losses .
In addition , investment-grade companies broke the record for debt sales for two months in a row .
The Fed ’ s Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility began purchases of eligible exchange-traded funds invested in corporate debt in mid-May with the largest corporate bond ETF surging the most in a month that day .
Still , much of the enthusiasm from the Fed ’ s intervention announcement had already been priced in by that point , and the crisis seemed long @ @


washingtonpost--2020-05-13--Analysis | Reinventing Holidays for the Coronavirus Era

In order to adjust , Tui Chief Executive Officer Fritz Joussen said the company is reinventing its holiday offerings to focus on more local travel , which it expects to recover more quickly .
When Europeans start to travel again , they are likely to stay in their home countries , or possibly venture only a bit further afield to visit neighboring nations .
That has certainly been the case in China , where Tui has already restarted its business for domestic trips .
With that in mind , of all Tui ’ s hotels around the world , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on Germany ’ s North and Baltic Sea coasts , popular destinations for its domestic clientele .
There will need to be strict hygiene measures .
Wherever possible in Tui hotels , food and drink will be served to guests by staff wearing masks .
The company will also promote more hotel packages without flights included to tap demand from customers who want to drive in their own cars .
The risk is that this encourages more customers to book directly with hotels themselves , and avoid travel agents altogether .
Cruises too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on smaller ships , where the number of passengers on board is limited and social distancing easier to put in place .
For example , Tui could offer short trips from German harbors to the North and Baltic Seas , while expanding its already popular cruises around the British Isles .
All these measures , however imaginative , may be too late to save this summer , but Tui says demand is picking up for holidays from the autumn onward .
It ’ s hopeful that Greece and Majorca will open up later @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some business lost during the traditional summer months , and possibly set a precedent for an extended summer season for years to come .
Tui , which has been granted a 1.8 billion-euro bridging loan from the German state bank KfW , certainly needs holiday bookings to start looking up soon .
Its cash burn is concerning even though it still had available resources of 2.1 billion euros as of May 10 .
The cash outflow is expected to be between 250 million euros and 300 million euros a month for the remainder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also warned that it faced a potential cash outflow of an additional several hundred million euros per month from refunding customers .
That ’ s no holiday .
Even if Tui adapts to the short-term constraints , the changing nature of travel means pressure for the foreseeable future .
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners .


washingtonpost--2020-05-13--Reality TV Figure Bought Rolex With PPP Funds, U.S. Alleges


washingtonpost--2020-04-29--Analysis | A Wave of Bad Loans Could Swallow China’s Banks

A closer look at their existing loan books , however , suggests there ’ s more pain ahead .
A third of Chinese bank lending goes to personal loans without any collateral , credit cards , private companies and small or medium-size enterprises .
These borrowers comprise 77 % of non-performing loans .
They also tend to be the weakest in a crisis , and stand to lose most in the Covid-19 aftermath .
As exports and global demand wane , private manufacturers will see their earnings washed out .
Over the next 12 months , around 2.5 trillion yuan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ non-performing loans will be generated in China ’ s banking system , according to CLSA Ltd. Employees and owners will feel the pain and household incomes will be hit , weakening consumer credit .
Granted , companies have been getting life lines from Beijing , just enough to keep things afloat while banks get permission to forbear .
But the picture will be muddy for a while .
Consumer balance sheets maybe more indicative of what ’ s happening .
Ping An Bank Co. ’ s retail non-performing loans , which include mortgages @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from a year earlier , according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Another troubling sign : The non-performing loan ratio for securities backed by credit card debt jumped over 4 % in March , according to CLSA .
Households ’ debt servicing ability was already constrained , with borrowing rising faster than incomes .
Writing off retail loans will be a big challenge , but rolling over millions of troubled loans will be tough , too .
Then there ’ s the question of what gets recognized as soured debt .
Regulators have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and roll over loans .
That means a chunk will be booked in categories like overdue , rescheduled and special mention loans before they are declared as non-performing assets .
These borrowings often sit under these classifications for a long time even if they have gone bad .
Using a broader definition that includes these groupings , NPLs are closer to 2.5 trillion yuan than the 1.5 trillion yuan in the financial reports of all 49 listed banks , according to Rhodium Group estimates .
That was before the virus .
Meanwhile , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ close to 10 % .
Banks will have to set aside funds for this .
Rhodium Group estimates that an extra 1 trillion yuan of NPLs would require 1.5 trillion yuan of provisions .
That would wipe out half the banking system ’ s annual profit and erode capital .
No wonder , then , banks have rushed to raise billions of capital in recent weeks through perpetual and additional tier 1 capital bonds .
Meanwhile , the deterioration will start to put pressure on banks to boost earnings .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for loan losses barely increased at most big lenders in the first quarter .
Under accounting rules adopted last year , such a buffer is supposed to be based on expected losses before actual ones show up .
It ’ s unclear what these lenders are anticipating but it doesn ’ t look like enough .
Investors should take notice .


washingtonpost--2020-04-29--Analysis | Boeing and GE Stare Down an Aerospace Apocalypse

Both GE and Boeing said they will have the liquidity needed to manage through the crisis .
That said , GE backed away from a target to reduce net debt to less than 2.5 times its Ebitda by the end of this year , a goal it had reiterated as recently as March .
While analysts from Gordon Haskett and Cowen & Co. have questioned whether the company might need to raise additional capital in the equity market , Culp , in an interview , said that isn ’ t in the current operating plan and pointed to the company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the end of the first quarter .
Boeing , meanwhile , vowed to explore all available funding options .
These seemingly include a slice of the $ 2 trillion government stimulus bill , despite Calhoun ’ s previous pushback to the Treasury Department ’ s demand for an equity stake .
The nature of the two companies ’ businesses means cash flow will come back at a different pace .
Boeing makes its money primarily by selling airplanes , GE by servicing them .
The common thinking is that suppliers like GE @ @ @ @ @ @ @ airlines rush to retire their oldest , costliest jets at an unprecedented clip .
We may indeed be looking at a structural downshift : Planes that aren ’ t flying anymore don ’ t need to be serviced and their parts can also be recycled , cannibalizing fresh sales .
But GE is arguably in a better position than some of its rivals .
Engines made by the company and its CFM joint venture predominantly sit on narrow-body jets that are relatively young , averaging about 10 years old in age .
Those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ service work , but they are less likely to be retired and will be the first put back into service given their smaller size .
GE also doesn ’ t necessarily have to wait for passengers to return en masse for demand for services to come back to life , Culp said by phone .
Even if a plane flies with only five people on it , it still needs maintenance work after a certain number of takeoffs and landings .
While the aggressive pace of retirements may support demand for new , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Boeing , by contrast , is likely to see a slow pace of new deliveries until airlines see demand recover and are confident they can profitably expand their capacity .
As such , it ’ s recalibrating production plans for its 787 Dreamliner and 777X wide-body jets .
The 737 Max jet remains grounded and Boeing yet again pushed back the timeline for its return on Wednesday , saying it now expects regulators to allow it to start delivering the jet in the third quarter .
That ’ s a slight shift @ @ @ @ @ @ @ return .
With 400 undeliverable Max planes sitting in storage and few , if any , airlines interested in taking possession of them any time soon , Boeing will gradually ramp up production to just 31 planes a month over the course of 2021 .
The company still thinks it can generate positive cash flow next year .
While GE and Boeing were both in turnaround mode when the crisis hit , they were at very different stages of that process .
GE had started to show signs of a nascent recovery and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the distressed first-quarter numbers .
In some ways , the coronavirus crisis may even accelerate the cost cuts and cultural changes GE has been trying to make , CEO Culp said .
The company is targeting more than $ 2 billion of cost cuts and more than $ 3 billion of cash-preservation moves to adjust to the lower demand environment .
Boeing , by contrast , was still reeling from the Max grounding and the reputational damage that entailed .
A bevy of charges announced in the first quarter – ranging from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the so-called pickle fork on its 737 NG plane to an $ 827 million hit for its KC-46 military tanker – speak to the work that ’ s still needed to clean up its act .


washingtonpost--2020-04-29--Legions of Banks Urge SBA to Fix Loan System, Explain Glitches


washingtonpost--2020-04-29--Biden Woos the Left Along With Wall Street, Trying to Avoid a 2016 Repeat

To key progressive groups and leaders , the steps he ’ s taken are a good start .
But they ’ re still worried that once in office , his economic recovery plan will mirror that of President Barack Obama , which they believed betrayed the values he campaigned on and favored banks and Wall Street at the expense of workers .
Biden is walking a tightrope .
He desperately needs to raise money from Wall Street and other centers of wealth and power , and he ’ s promised donors that their standard of living won ’ t change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But he also fears a repeat of 2016 , when progressives felt ignored by nominee Hillary Clinton and stayed away on Election Day , which many say contributed to Donald Trump ’ s victory .
The economic crisis , including unemployment of around 20 % , has made voters ’ more willing to support some of the progressives ’ big ideas .
A majority of Americans surveyed in late March favored increased spending on health care , the elderly , environmental protection , education and infrastructure , among other areas .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ left .
Progressive groups , however , say they ’ re going to push for more , demanding that Biden bring more like-minded voices into his campaign and his possible transition team .
And they say they will loudly complain when he makes moves they oppose .
They ’ ve made good on that pledge , sparking an uproar when Bloomberg News reported that Biden was getting economic advice from former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers .
A “ Biden do not reappoint ” list published by the American Prospect includes many of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t want to see in a Biden administration , including Summers , former U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman , and former Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag and Jeff Zients , an acting director and economic adviser .
Eight groups representing young progressives wrote to Biden with a list of personnel recommendations and have asked that he “ pledge to appoint zero current or former Wall Street executives or corporate lobbyists , or people affiliated with the fossil fuel , health insurance or private prison corporations , to your transition @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Biden has made clear his leftward steps only go so far .
He says he ’ s not going to adopt Medicare for All or the full Green New Deal .
If he ’ s elected , no set of senior administration officials is going to look the same as it would in a Sanders or Warren administration , his campaign says.Still , Biden ’ s team is actively stressing to progressives that there ’ s plenty they ’ ll like about his campaign and , if elected , his administration .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ guided by a market fundamentalism that guided even Democratic economic teams in past administrations because the times have changed in that regard , ” said Jared Bernstein , Biden ’ s former chief economist in the White House who is , like Summers , an informal adviser to Biden ’ s campaign .
While progressives like Bernstein were outnumbered during the Obama years , Bernstein said he believes Biden will build “ a much more balanced group with an ample supply of established progressive economists who recognize the importance of the leftward movement @ @ @ @ @ @ @ power , trade , fiscal policy and deficits , minimum wages , health care and family supports.
” “ Personnel and a policy agenda go hand-in-hand , ” said Steph Sterling , vice president for advocacy and policy at the progressive Roosevelt Institute , which has ties to Warren and worked closely with Hillary Clinton ’ s team in 2016 .
Biden , she said , should select aides who believe in “ the power of the government to reshape and reform markets instead of reinforcing and exacerbating extractive corporate power.
” Although @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bernstein said he has always favored working-class Americans over the wealthy and powerful .
“ I ’ ve heard concerns about the little guy and gal getting left behind and the unequal access of corporate power to Washington , ” he said , adding that Biden called him last week to express concern that small businesses were missing out on loans from the Paycheck Protection Program .
Progressives say Bernstein is a reassuring presence , as is former Delaware Senator Ted Kaufman , Biden ’ s former Senate chief of staff and longtime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up the big banks .
Kaufman succeeded Warren as chair of the panel overseeing how stimulus money was spent after the 2008 recession and is close to her .
Biden told donors Monday he is talking to Kaufman about his transition team .
“ Who do you think Joe Biden ’ s going listen to ?
” Kaufman asked .
“ What do you think is down deep in Joe Biden ’ s innermost instincts ?
Where do you think they are ?
Do you think they ’ re with the poor , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with middle class people ?
Or do you think they ’ re with Goldman Sachs ?
” To Kaufman , the answer is clear , but some progressives worry that the Biden campaign ’ s vagueness about his economic team and the news about Summers reinforced their concerns .
“ Larry Summers Is a Dead Albatross Around Joe Biden ’ s Neck , ” read a headline Monday in the Nation , concluding that if the candidate “ wants to prove his bona fides to progressives , he ’ ll have to cut @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have started a petition urging Biden to do just that .
Mike Lux , who was the Obama transition team ’ s liaison to progressives and worked on Biden ’ s 1988 presidential campaign , said he sees progressives continuing to push Biden -- and for good reason.
“ In past eras when a Democratic candidate won , there was , frankly , more trust , ” Lux said , arguing that some progressives still feel stung from the experience of watching Obama , who they believed was closely aligned with them , @ @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-04-29--Analysis | Netflix Binges Are Just Fine With Samsung

Samsung is the largest maker of both dynamic random-access memory and NAND flash .
The former is used in computers and servers to hold data temporarily , an important element in speeding systems and ensuring information can flow smoothly across networks .
The latter is used increasingly in servers to store information because it ’ s quicker than traditional magnetic spindle drives .
Demand for both types will be solid this quarter as more people work from home , the company said Wednesday .
Into the second half , conditions will remain “ favorable , ” although a broader economic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gains .
Across the tech spectrum , companies that serve digital content to people who are confined to their homes are seeing upticks in usage .
Zoom Video Communications Inc. last week reported a 50 % surge in use of its online meeting application , crossing the 300 million mark on April 21 .
Peloton Interactive Inc. , the provider of internet-connected exercise bikes , set a record with 23,000 people joining a single live class .
Netflix Inc. added 15.8 million paid subscribers last quarter , double analysts ’ forecast .
Whether @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on a bike , or chilling on the couch , every single user of these services drives demand for memory chips .
Live-streaming means there can be no backlog in data , which has to be processed and delivered now .
To do so requires more DRAM .
This suits Samsung very well .
The huge size of its semiconductor operations means that the company can benefit from economies of scale in ways that it can ’ t in smartphones .
While chips account for 32 % of revenue , they contribute 62 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ knows that its consumer devices , such as phones and televisions , aren ’ t going to escape the Covid-19 downturn .
But as long as customers stay at home and watch Netflix , things might not be so bad .
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners .
For more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion


washingtonpost--2020-04-29--Fed Lending Faces a Tough Slog on Main Street

The program consists of two parts : the Main Street New Loan Facility and the Main Street Expanded Loan Facility .
The former would provide new loans to eligible borrowers and the latter would provide funds to increase the size of loans made before April 8 .
Loans would be divided , with 95 % held by the Fed ’ s lending facility and 5 % retained by the lender .
The 5 % share is designed to ensure that the lender has “ skin in the game ” and therefore does a prudent job in underwriting the loan .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ the underwriting decisions to lenders .
The loans would mature in four years and range from $ 1 million to $ 25 million .
No repayment of principal or interest would be due in the first year and there would be no prepayment penalty .
If the Fed gets the balance right , the program will support the extension of credit to viable smaller and medium-sized enterprises .
By taking the bulk of the loans on its own balance sheet , the Fed will expand the capacity of the banking system to lend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the balance wrong , it may find the facility either neglected or , at the other extreme , flooded with bad loans .
The design of the lending facilities faces two hurdles .
The first is to ensure prudent loan underwriting .
Keeping bad businesses afloat just makes it more difficult for more viable companies to survive and prosper .
The second is terms that ensure banks will lend and viable businesses will borrow .
It will be hard for the Fed to thread this needle .
Consider what it will take for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ consistent with the Fed ’ s and the Treasury ’ s risk tolerance .
If the loan is truly an attractive credit , there ’ s little reason to farm it out to the Fed .
Why not just keep the loan on its own books or syndicate the credit with other lenders ?
In contrast , if the loan is less attractive , why would a lender want to take the risk ?
Here the answers may be less than reassuring .
One reason is that new funding will keep the business @ @ @ @ @ @ @ meet its other obligations -- including , perhaps , to the lender originating the loan .
Throwing good money after bad may be more attractive when most of the good money belongs to someone else .
In the same vein , the loan may be unattractive on its own , but as part of a broader banking relationship it might make sense .
Finally , the restraints on the use of the loan proceeds may be difficult to enforce .
What is to prevent the borrower from using a loan from Bank A @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a loan from Bank B to repay obligations to Bank A ?
Another problem is the “ one size fits all ” approach to the limits on leverage .
How much leverage is too much depends on the type of business and how that business has been affected by the coronavirus pandemic .
The debt-to-ebitda limit of four times for the Main Street New Loan Facility may be too low for some types of borrowers ( they may have already been above that limit in 2019 ) and too high for others @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difference between a supermarket chain , an essential service that ’ s open , versus a restaurant company , that ’ s closed .
Adverse selection might result : Highly leveraged borrowers with stable cash flows may be ineligible to participate while borrowers that were less leveraged in 2019 but in much greater trouble today can get funding .
Also , it is not clear that the program ensures a level playing field for prospective borrowers .
If a smaller business has borrowed mainly outside the banking system in the past , how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ such a company compared with a business with an established lending relationship ?
Finally , the Main Street Lending program imposes a number of constraints on borrowers .
In addition to restricting how the loan proceeds can be used , the eligible borrower must try to keep its payroll intact during the term of the loan and follow the compensation , stock-repurchase and capital-distribution restrictions that apply to direct loan programs under the $ 2 trillion CARES Act .
Borrowers that are in relatively good shape will want to avoid these types of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ borrowers might be made up of riskier businesses .
The Fed ’ s goals for the Main Street Lending program are admirable : It ’ s meant to fill a gap between the Small Business Administration loans available to small businesses and the support the Fed is providing for the corporate bond market , which benefits large corporations .
But getting the balance right is going to be challenging .
Bill Dudley is a senior research scholar at Princeton University ’ s Center for Economic Policy Studies .
He served as president of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from 2009 to 2018 , and as vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee .
He was previously chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs .