washingtonpost--2020-05-06--Analysis | Germany’s Supreme Court Deserves Our Thanks

Well spaced out because of the new coronavirus rules , the red-robed judges didn ’ t exactly blow up the ECB policy in question , known as the public sector purchase program ( or PSPP ) .
But they sure gave the German government , parliament and central bank , as well as the ECB , a lot of work to do if they want to keep it .
The court told the ECB that it has three months to prove that its bond purchases are “ proportionate.
” And it ordered Germany ’ s government and Bundestag to monitor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Germany ’ s Bundesbank , the ECB ’ s largest shareholder , may no longer participate in this particular form of quantitative easing , in effect neutering the program .
Across much of the European Union , above all in the southern member states , mouths were once again agape over such Germanic intransigence , stubbornness and legalism .
Don ’ t they get that the ECB is just trying to rescue the euro area ’ s economy and preserve its cohesion ?
Maybe the bank does , here and there , blur @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is its remit , and economic policy , which isn ’ t .
But that ’ s only because Europe ’ s governments , above all Germany ’ s , have long shirked their duty to help out with fiscal policy .
And besides , many Europeans are wondering why , if there really are fundamental questions at stake in this case , only one member state , out of 19 in the euro area and 27 in the EU , is bothered about them .
Other Europeans , including the judges of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are trying to be pragmatic and magnanimous in interpreting the European treaties .
Only the Germans , it seems , will forever be so rule bound .
Some of the case ’ s plaintiffs , who include industrialists , conservative politicians and even a grandson of postwar Germany ’ s first chancellor , may indeed be sticklers .
In general , they like very little about the ECB and probably yearn in secret for their old Deutsche Mark .
But the judges in Karlsruhe didn ’ t exactly follow the plaintiffs ’ logic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ECB from one central charge : that its bond purchases amounted to a covert way of printing money to finance government deficits .
Instead , the judges emphasized other concerns .
One point was that issue of proportionality I already mentioned .
But their more interesting line of reasoning was buried in the fine print .
It ’ s the question of how democratic the EU still is .
If the ECB , unelected and indeed independent ( as Germany in the 1990s insisted it must be ) , decides to mop up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the national central banks that own the ECB still have to execute the trades .
So the Bundesbank , for example , keeps accumulating risky assets on its own balance sheet .
If those lose value , the German government will have to cough up money from its national budget .
But the Bundestag , which has the constitutional duty to approve that budget , was never part of the decision .
And if it ’ s beyond parliament , it ’ s also beyond voters .
In the same way , ECB @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all member states .
It is thereby creeping beyond the functions envisioned in the European treaties .
Precisely because “ the EU has not evolved into a federal state , ” the verdict reads , “ certain tensions are thus inherent in the design of the European Union ; they must be resolved in a cooperative manner.
” By overruling the Luxembourg court , Karlsruhe is objecting to an interpretation of the ECB ’ s actions so liberal that it “ would essentially amount to a treaty amendment.
” What the judges didn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , is that this mission creep — this treaty change on the down-low — is not a bug but a feature of EU policy .
National leaders , above all German Chancellor Angela Merkel , have never made the hard choices about their currency union , either during the euro crisis or in this pandemic .
Should the euro area have its own budget ?
Its own tax revenues ?
Its own government and treasurer ?
Its own debt ?
Whenever these questions threaten to come through the front door of politics , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the back door instead .
Thus the Germans , Dutch , Austrians and other northern members keep saying no to mutualized debt , for example , by nixing euro bonds and now coronabonds .
But they keep nodding to incremental forms of joint liability within the EU ’ s institutions , from the ECB to the European Stability Mechanism , the bloc ’ s rescue fund .
The message from Karlsruhe is that this obfuscation must stop .
If you want to save the euro permanently , the judges are saying , write @ @ @ @ @ @ @ explain them to your voters .
These German judges would be happy to apply them , because they actually love Europe .
But if you ’ re not ready to have a proper currency union , with joint debt and governance , then at least be honest enough to admit that .
In that case , we must have an open and democratic debate about how , gradually and cautiously , to unravel the euro area as it is .
This is the fundamental question for Europeans of this generation .
The red-robed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trying to force us to confront the choice .


washingtonpost--2020-05-06--Trump Administration Extends Deadline to Return PPP Loans

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washingtonpost--2020-05-05--Analysis | Buyers’ Remorse Is Catching in the Coronavirus Era

Using the fine print to renege on a deal isn ’ t pretty , but it ’ s understandable in an environment where virus-related lockdowns have ravaged economies across the world .
Forecasts and valuation estimates predating the pandemic have been rendered all but meaningless .
The damage may be considerable .
In the real estate industry alone , there is more than $ 370 billion worth of M & A deals waiting to close , data compiled by Bloomberg show .
Many more may fall through .
Blackstone Group Inc. ’ s talks for a potential investment in Chinese @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stalled , Vinicy Chan and Manuel Baigorri of Bloomberg News reported Monday , citing people familiar with the matter .
Meanwhile , Shenzhen-listed Oceanwide Holdings Co. saw its sale of an unfinished San Francisco project collapse in March .
Oceanwide , which was scored CCC+ by Fitch Ratings before the agency withdrew its assessment , said that it agreed to sell to another buyer , Chinese buyout firm Hony Capital .
That deal has yet to close .
Real estate has been hit hard .
Hotels , shopping malls and offices are empty @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while social-distancing rules are keeping consumers and employees at home .
What kind of cash flow can these businesses expect if further waves follow ?
Sure , deals fall through all the time — sometimes even the most settled-looking acquisitions can founder .
That ’ s just part of life .
What ’ s abnormal , however , is when deal-breaking becomes a trend .
Then there are long-term repercussions .
China has already learned the hard way .
Since Beijing seized Anbang two years ago , its attempt to dispose of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ into a nightmare .
The government wasn ’ t able to sell the Waldorf Astoria , which Anbang bought in 2015 for $ 1.95 billion , because the famed Manhattan hotel was already closed for renovation .
The insurer had planned to convert the top floors into luxury condominiums .
Wanting to avoid a fire sale , authorities plowed in an estimated $ 1 billion to complete the project .
Some of these condos just came to market in March , just as the virus surfaced in New York City .
Even Beijing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get the money back , Caixin reported in March .
And now Mirae Asset is pulling out .
Apart from massive losses , the cleanup is taking forever .
This helps explain why the government has been keeping a tight lid on insurance in the last two years , insisting on it being dull and boring .
Roughly half of an industry bailout fund , or about 61 billion yuan ( $ 8.6 billion ) , has already been spent to honor obligations incurred by Anbang .
The government can ’ t afford @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In real estate , China ’ s high-flying developers have lived dangerously for years , figuring they could always sell land or projects if they ran into financial trouble .
For instance , Future Land Development Holdings Ltd. became deeply distressed last year after its billionaire chairman was taken into criminal custody for suspected molestation of a minor .
The Shanghai-based company bounced back quickly , selling more than 10 billion yuan of projects within two months to repay debt .
Future Land was lucky : That was before the virus , when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capital gains .
We ’ re in a different world now .
Deals may not close smoothly because , all of a sudden , we don ’ t know how to project future cash flows .
Will the recovery be V- , U- , W- or L-shaped ?
Who can say .
Our grasp of consumer demand , the oil that lubricates most deals , is missing .
That means those that rely on asset sales for survival are in for a rude awakening .


washingtonpost--2020-05-06--Analysis | French Establishment Saves Lagardere from Hedge Fund Humiliation

The shares fell upon the news , and it ’ s not hard to see why .
The vote largely preserves an existing board that has overseen abysmal returns for investors .
That poor performance over such a long period provided a sufficient argument for overhauling the company ’ s governance .
But Amber , headed by former Societe Generale prop trader Joseph Oughourlian , also shone a light on the deficiencies of its so-called commandite partnership structure .
This has kept managing partner and 7 % shareholder Arnaud Lagardere richly rewarded , even as outside investors suffered .
Meanwhile @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the situation and lacked the power to forcibly change management .
The activist campaign gained traction amid the broad endorsement of proxy voting firms .
That , however , prompted a reaction from Lagardere ’ s allies .
Vivendi SA , the media conglomerate controlled by billionaire Vincent Bollore , took a big stake in the company last month .
So did French investor Marc Ladreit de Lacharriere , Les Echos reported .
They likely rejected Amber ’ s resolutions .
The key poll results would otherwise have hung in the balance rather @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a shame for outside shareholders that not even one of Amber ’ s eight nominees were elected .
The board could have used an immediate injection of outsiders .
Sometimes a partial victory is as good as it gets in activism .
Might Bollore have been open to supporting a handful of candidates if the campaign had not become so heated ?
Perhaps .
What happens next ?
Lagardere ’ s shares continue to suffer amid measures to curb the coronavirus , given the firm ’ s reliance on the advertising and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be ready to defend the company against opportunistic bids for all or part of the business .
The company would be in a stronger position if it ended the commandite , thereby rebooting the standalone investment case .
That requires the board to make Arnaud Lagardere an offer , probably in the form of an additional stake , that persuades him to give up the structure .
It would be a wrench to cede control of an institution that bears his family name .
Much will depend on his personal financial situation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ longer in a position to pay the generous dividends he previously received .
Both a sale of the commandite and any deal for all or part of the group would present challenging negotiations .
Outside shareholders will want a board that delivers substantially better results for them than it has in the past .
The French establishment may have saved Lagardere from outright humiliation , but this protest vote should not be ignored .
Chris Hughes is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering deals .
He previously worked for Reuters Breakingviews , as well @ @ @ @ @ @ @ newspaper .


washingtonpost--2020-05-06--Analysis | Germany Tries to Find Out Who Its Investors Are

But Germany brushed off any such concerns on Wednesday with a successful new issue of 15-year bonds , paying zero interest and redeeming at face value ( below the price investors will have to pay ) .
Some 7.5 billion euros of bonds were on sale , and there was demand for 35 billion euros worth .
Berlin clearly wanted to put a significant dent in this year ’ s borrowing target so it offered a relatively generous 8 basis-point premium over its similar existing bonds .
Even so , the notes will yield about -0.33 % , meaning an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ receive 95 cents back for every euro they lend — effectively building in a capital loss .
With most official European Central Bank interest rates even further below zero , the deal was priced relative to bank funding costs in general .
The smooth placement of this new bond shows that investors aren ’ t overly concerned about the German constitutional court ruling on Tuesday that requires the ECB to justify the “ proportionality ” of its asset-purchase program .
That judgment could , in theory , force the German central bank to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sovereign debt , putting pressure on its bond prices .
But the markets appear to have deemed this as a legal or political issue that won ’ t make much difference to the ECB ’ s quantitative easing policies .
For the first time in five years , Germany hired a syndicate of banks to raise the debt rather than relying on its somewhat clunky regular auction process via primary dealers .
The 15-year maturity is unusual too , with no obvious domestic or foreign demand for this duration .
Recent auctions in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” with the order book coming in at less than the amount available .
Getting the bank syndicate to do the sale avoids that potential embarrassment .
Most European sovereigns use this syndicated route with considerable success as it lets them raise large amounts of money , while using the expertise of the group of banks to get a clearer picture of who ’ s buying .
With its funding needs spiking , Germany suddenly needs to find out more about its investor base — and to broaden it .
It hasn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent years as its ratio of debt to gross domestic product fell below 60 % , and its borrowing requirements declined .
The economic aftershocks triggered by the pandemic mean even Germany has to be flexible in how it raises money , including new-issue discounts .
As every European country gears up to borrow more , innovation , adaptability and concessionary pricing will become commonplace for all issuers .
It ’ s a competitive market out there .
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering European markets .
He spent three decades in the banking industry , most recently as chief markets strategist at Haitong Securities in London .


washingtonpost--2020-05-06--BlackRock’s Fink Delivers Grim Outlook With Tax Hikes for Corporate America

Even among Wall Street luminaries , Fink speaks with particular clout .
He has been advising President Donald Trump on how to navigate the effects of the coronavirus pandemic .
And BlackRock is playing a key role in the Federal Reserve ’ s efforts to stabilize markets , helping the central bank buy billions of dollars in assets .
Fink said on the call with clients of a wealth advisory firm that bankers have told him they expect a cascade of bankruptcies to hit the American economy , and he wondered if the Fed needed to do more to provide @ @ @ @ @ @ @ knowledge of the remarks .
Even as the U.S. is plunged into deepening economic gloom , it will have to raise taxes to pay for emergency efforts to rescue sectors grappling with a difficult recovery , he warned on the call .
Among his predictions : lifting the 21 % corporate rate signed into law as part of 2017 ’ s tax overhaul to about 28 % or 29 % next year , according to the person .
Fink also said he sees tax rates for individuals going up .
Raising taxes would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Trump ’ s time in office , when he and a Republican-controlled Congress drove through the most significant changes to the tax code in decades .
Lower corporate rates juiced profits and showered cash on shareholders through increased dividends and stock buybacks .
Now , at a time when many taxpayers are less able to bear the burden of higher taxes , the government may be forced to extract a larger share of companies ’ and individuals ’ income .
The spread of the coronavirus , and measures taken to mitigate it , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ While Trump pushes to reopen commerce and his officials predict a rapid rebound , public health experts and some economists are skeptical the crisis will soon be over .
Politicians , business leaders and economists are beginning to confront the risks of a limited federal response that might speed up the demise of smaller companies and wreck state and municipal finances that pay for schools , law enforcement and infrastructure .
That won ’ t be the only strain on companies .
Many may have to operate with only about half their staff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year , according to Fink .
Across white-collar industries , millions are working remotely from home .
It would be hard to see a complete return without mass availability of rapid testing , he said .
There ’ s a risk that the U.S. outbreak will be severe enough to leave a long-lasting impact on the American psyche , undermining Americans ’ willingness to take public transport or fly , according to Fink .
He said he ’ s not aware of any of his CEO peers planning international travel this year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ leader Airbnb Inc. and ride-hailing firm Uber Technologies Inc. announced plans for mass layoffs as they wrestle with falling demand and dimmed prospects for the rest of the year .
Many of the U.S. ’ s 30 million small businesses have struggled to get the relief they need .
If the crisis continues , about 25 % of those companies could close permanently before year-end , according to an April report released by Main Street America , a network comprising approximately 300,000 small businesses .
Restaurants that typically operate with thin margins will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ways to lure back customers with social-distancing measures in place , Fink said .
Fink also said he was concerned the worsening economic duress could further fan the flames of nationalism .
The devastating impact from the coronavirus could make it a bigger threat to the global order , he said .


washingtonpost--2020-05-06--A Misguided Assault on Mergers

A Misguided Assault on Mergers

For a start , the plan is incoherent on its own terms .
Thanks to the pandemic , dealmaking has all but stopped .
The “ predatory mergers ” that Warren thinks “ giant corporations and private equity vultures ” will undertake during this crisis are entirely hypothetical .
In any event , monopolistic practices are already illegal .
All big mergers are reviewed by the Department of Justice or the FTC .
Decades of rulemaking and jurisprudence have established standards for evaluating them and protecting consumers .
No predatory deal is going to slip through the cracks thanks to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to block otherwise lawful and consensual economic activity on exactly that pretext .
Second , banning mergers isn ’ t going to help mom-and-pop businesses or their employees .
Quite the opposite : For a small company short on cash , an acquirer — however self-interested — could be a critical lifeline in this crisis .
Impeding such deals would only induce those companies either to seek additional debt at a moment of acute stress or to shut their doors , harming their workers , suppliers and lenders in the process .
Moreover @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A don ’ t disappear in a crisis .
Mergers on balance offer companies an opportunity to boost growth , create synergies , leverage economies of scale , increase productivity and otherwise become more competitive .
That ’ s why they ’ re legal in the first place .
Some deals work out and others don ’ t , but surely the companies involved understand their interests better than distant lawmakers .
Which brings us to the third and most important point : The bill would impede the recovery .
Offering companies a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Paycheck Protection Program are doing — is entirely justified at the moment .
But such relief can ’ t last indefinitely ; normal economic activity must eventually resume .
When it does , prudent mergers and acquisitions should make it easier to direct capital to promising businesses , bolster balance sheets , preserve valuable assets and generally help the country get back on its feet .
Outlawing this restorative process is likely to harm the very businesses and workers the bill ’ s sponsors say they want to help .
To make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ include the measure in future relief bills , which risks compounding the damage by delaying essential fiscal support .
About the only beneficiaries of this misguided effort , in fact , seem to be the legislators advancing it , to the acclaim of their most fervent supporters .
Politics doesn ’ t stop in national emergencies , of course .
But a brief respite from cynicism doesn ’ t seem too much to ask .


washingtonpost--2020-05-06--Analysis | Coronavirus Threatens Incomes That Migrants Send Home


washingtonpost--2020-06-19--Fed’s Rosengren Expects Main Street Program to Build Over Time

He said more than 200 financial institutions of various size from across the country had begun registering to participate , and that interest from businesses was “ tremendous.
” The program , an emergency credit facility created by the central bank and administered by the Boston Fed , aims to provide loans to small and mid-size businesses and was opened for lender-registration Monday after lengthy delays .
The Fed received thousands of comment letters in response to the initial announcement of the program , and some critics argue the terms and complexity of the program may still not be favorable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ purchases a 95 % stake in loans made by banks of $ 250,000 to $ 300 million to companies damaged by coronavirus-related shutdowns .
The Fed is also considering expanding it to include non-profits .
The program is capped at $ 600 billion , but Rosengren said it ’ s not possible to predict the ultimate take-up from the program , as that may depend on the course of the pandemic .
“ It actually has the potential to be a significant help to a lot of borrowers , both businesses and non-profit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ up being more troublesome than we ’ re hoping , ” he said .
Rosengren said he ’ s spoken with many medical and disease experts in Boston who have counseled him to expect either a series of second waves for the coronavirus this fall in different parts of the U.S. or one second wave .
“ Either of those outcomes means the fall will not be as robust as many people are hoping , ” he said , referring to the economy .
In a speech earlier Friday , the Boston Fed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ response will probably be needed to support the economy through the downturn that has resulted .
He sees unemployment remaining above 10 % through the end of this year , with inflation persisting “ well below ” the Fed ’ s 2 % target .
“ Unemployment remains very high , and because of the continued community spread of the disease and the acceleration of new cases in many states , I expect the economic rebound in the second half of the year to be less than was hoped for at the outset @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Rosengren ’ s outlook put him on the pessimistic side of projections released June 10 by the Federal Open Market Committee .
The median forecast for unemployment at the end of 2020 among the 17 policy makers was 9.3 % .
But Rosengren is not alone in warning that recent strong economic indicators -- like the May jobs report and retail sales data -- may be misleading .
Fed Chair Jerome Powell , appearing before lawmakers this week , said he expects a significant bounceback in the labor market in the near @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. far short of employment levels seen before the pandemic .
Rosengren focused some of his remarks on re-opening efforts in some states , like South Carolina and Florida , where there is evidence that new cases are rising .
“ Given the death toll of the virus even with the economic lockdown , I see a substantial risk in reopening too fast and relaxing social distancing too much , ” he said .
“ Even if you didn ’ t care about hospitalizations and deaths , which I do , if you @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re-open safely and not unsafely , ” he said in the interview .


washingtonpost--2020-05-27--Analysis | CoCo Bond Investors Face a Covid-19 Reckoning

Because of their special status , there had always been a tacit understanding — though not a legal obligation — that investors would be able to cash in the bonds at the first redemption date , if they so chose , at least with European CoCos .
But that tradition looks to be well and truly over among the stronger banks .
Lloyds cited “ extraordinary market challenges presented by Covid-19 ” as the reason to extend its own AT1s .
With its dividend payments to equity holders suspended currently at the behest of the U.K. financial regulator , because @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have looked rum indeed if the bank had cut its equity capital for the benefit of a small group of bondholders .
This select bunch ought to have known the risk .
The financial savings for Lloyds are just as relevant .
By retaining the 6.375 % 750 million-euro ( $ 824 million ) CoCo , it will switch to paying a floating coupon just above 5 % .
If it had redeemed the AT1 and issued a replacement bond , it would have had to offer a higher coupon to reflect the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % .
Lloyds has a solid Tier 1 capital base of 16.9 % , so in normal times it would have been expected to keep its bond investors happy .
But regulatory pressure and the increase in yields on risky debt during the current crisis has forced even the better capitalized banks to prioritize their financing costs .
Spain ’ s Banco Santander SA set the precedent last year of a blue-chip lender not redeeming its AT1 debt out of pure economic self-interest .
That ’ s standard practice in the U.S. market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a storm here in Europe .
Germany ’ s Deutsche Bank AG and Aareal Bank AG have also skipped calls this year .
This Americanization of the European CoCo market looks like a trend .
ABN Amro Bank NV and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc both have AT1 bonds with calls due this summer , and Barclays Plc is due later in the year .
They may follow the Lloyds example and retain cheap AT1 capital raised at lower yields .
Banks have benefited hugely from AT1 issues as regulators count it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost always redeemed ) , meaning it counts toward capital buffers .
And the cost is much lower for the issuer than true perpetual debt .
Investors have been happy to play along as the yields far exceed those on bank debt with legally enforceable redemption dates .
While the bigger banks ’ CoCo bonds will probably still be popular , even if the call date is no longer guaranteed implicitly , the change might do more damage to weaker lenders .
If investors no longer feel confident that their money will automatically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , they ’ ll demand a higher return for the risk .
The CoCo market only reopened tentatively this month with a new Bank of Ireland Group Plc deal .
The Irish lender did what Lloyds refused to do and redeemed its existing AT1 and reissued at a higher cost .
At least it managed to keep its investors happy and on board .
This new separation between large stable banks being able to act according to their own economic advantage , while smaller rivals have to offer chunkier premiums , is a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system .
It ought to be an urgent matter for consideration by European regulators .
Forcing the strong banks to keep capital has consequences for their less illustrious peers .


washingtonpost--2020-05-26--As Uber Drivers Hope for Unemployment Benefits or U.S. Loans, a Lucky Few Get Both

Parise , 73 , used his newfound free time to apply for any public assistance program for which he thought he might qualify .
Nothing came through until early this month , when he received $ 11,500 .
It ’ s a small-business loan forgivable under certain conditions , part of the $ 659 billion Paycheck Protection Program , which is designed to encourage companies to keep paying employees during the pandemic .
Parise believes he qualifies because he owns a one-man business to support his job driving .
This created an ethical dilemma for Parise , and perhaps a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money is supposed to keep bosses like Parise from laying off workers— in this case , just Parise .
Unemployment benefits are intended for people who have lost their jobs .
“ I don ’ t want to seem like I ’ m double dipping , ” he said .
“ I ’ m happy to stay home and collect the government money if I can.
” Parise said he hasn ’ t decided what to do but is leaning toward taking taking both and paying back the loan before it comes due @ @ @ @ @ @ @ its drivers to be independent contractors , some like Parise set up small businesses to manage their income from driving .
The designation helps minimize personal and tax liabilities and for Parise , validates his status as an entrepreneur in his own right .
“ I ’ m more of an independent business person , ” he said .
“ I hire Uber to send me customers.
” Deciphering the rules around the government ’ s financial-assistance programs is a widespread challenge , and ride-hailing drivers face a particularly complicated route .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to find enough work to get by .
Meanwhile , Uber and Lyft haven ’ t altered their stance that drivers are independent contractors , not employees , disqualifying them from unemployment insurance in most states .
The companies have directed drivers toward at least three alternatives , including the two Parise applied for .
Congress created Pandemic Unemployment Assistance to help provide financial relief to workers normally ineligible for unemployment benefits , and Uber successfully lobbied for its drivers to be included .
States manage the federally funded program , and implementation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drivers have yet to receive money or even confirmation they ’ ll get it eventually , said Harry Campbell , who runs a popular website for drivers called the Rideshare Guy .
“ Some people are getting unemployment , ” he said .
“ Some aren ’ t. ” The financial-aid programs for small businesses have been similarly inconsistent .
Tied up in the practical questions of where drivers can turn for help is an unresolved fight over whether Uber and Lyft ’ s workers should be considered employees of the companies .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Democratic public officials , have said the companies are cheating drivers out of benefits and offloading the costs onto taxpayers .
“ They are using the moment to crystallize the fact that , in their view , these workers should not have the benefit of employee status , ” said Brian Chen , a staff attorney at the National Employment Law Project , a worker advocacy group .
Ride-hailing companies oppose efforts by drivers to access traditional unemployment benefits from states , which are financed through payroll taxes .
Uber and Lyft @ @ @ @ @ @ @ classify workers like their drivers as employees , and the state recently sued them in response .
Most drivers , said Chen , would receive more generous benefits from state programs , an assertion Uber contests .
“ Congress fully funded pandemic unemployment assistance for gig workers so that every state , many of which face historic deficits , could give these workers immediate financial support at no cost to their own state funds , ” said Harry Hartfield , a spokesman for Uber .
Lyft and Uber would have been on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ insurance costs over the last five years in California alone , according to a study published this month by the University of California , Berkeley ’ s Institute for Research and Labor .
A similar analysis by officials in New Jersey said Uber would have faced a bill of $ 530 million for unemployment and disability from 2014 to 2018 .
Tally up the 48 other states , and you ’ re looking at a significant additional cost for two companies that have never been profitable .
New York courts have ruled multiple @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unemployment benefits in the last year , but only after a lengthy process that ’ s onerous for both applicants and the state , said Nicole Salk , a senior staff attorney with Legal Services NYC who has represented several drivers in such cases .
“ It causes problems for the whole system.
” she said .
On Monday , four drivers for Uber and Lyft and a worker advocacy group sued Governor Andrew Cuomo and the New York Labor Department in federal court , claiming the state failed to pay unemployment benefits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the governor , said New York is ahead of other states in its response to the jobs crisis and is processing more than 100,000 applications a week for the federal unemployment program .
“ During this pandemic emergency , we have been moving heaven and earth to get every single unemployed New Yorker their benefits as quickly as possible—including Uber and Lyft drivers who are treated no different than any other worker , ” Sterne wrote in an emailed statement .
Amara Sanogo , a driver in the Bronx , is living @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three children with their Zoom video curriculum as he waits for a response from the state about whether he qualifies for benefits .
When he applied nearly two months ago , Sanogo set up an online account on a state website and was told he ’ d get updates there .
“ Every day I check that account , ” he said .
“ There are no more messages.
” New York ’ s Labor Department is now advising gig economy workers to apply to the federal program instead of the state ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a business to manage their Uber income , there are signs of significant interest in the small-business programs .
Ron Walter , a driver in the Denver area who primarily works for Uber and Grubhub Inc. , wrote a blog post about his experience applying for a PPP loan , which companies don ’ t need to pay back as long as they keep paying employees and adhere to other guidelines .
Walter ’ s blog post contained a link encouraging other drivers to apply through a website called Womply.com , which charges @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Dozens of drivers clicked through the link and filled out applications , according to data Walter received from Womply that was reviewed by Bloomberg .
Walter got a loan of $ 4,800 and anticipates he ’ ll have to pay it back .
He didn ’ t apply for other government programs , he said , because it didn ’ t feel right .
Since Walter mostly delivers food , he said he ’ s actually doing pretty well .
He can squeeze more deliveries into every hour and gets paid more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and parking is a lot better because everybody is staying home , ” he said .
But as the economy worsens , Walter worries demand is not going to last .
At some point , he said , “ people run out of money .
”


washingtonpost--2020-05-27--Analysis | Covid-19 Blows a $400 Billion Hole in Global Energy

One of Covid-19 ’ s secondary victims is mobility , so oil consumption has plunged .
Even so , IEA head Fatih Birol poured cold water on the notion that peak oil demand may have happened already .
Speaking with Bloomberg News ahead of the report ’ s release , he said : It ’ s fairly easy to take issue with this prediction .
We are barely months into possibly the most consequential economic dislocation the world has seen in many decades and possibly only months away from another round of it .
On the other hand , I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ statement as a prediction ; more of a warning .
The key phrase there concerns “ strong government policies.
” Covid-19 raises the issue of agency with devastating clarity ; faced with an alarming risk , what do we choose to do ?
Oil demand may suffer long-lasting scars from changes in behavior or sheer economic trauma , but it is rising again off the bottom .
The IEA raises the specter of 9 million barrels a day of day of missing supply in 2025 if investment doesn ’ t increase from here @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high prices for a global economy that may be just getting over the pandemic .
This looks extreme ; price signals wouldn ’ t stay dormant for that long .
Yet it ought to serve its rhetorical purpose , prodding us to consider , collectively , why we wouldn ’ t try to do things differently .
For all the damage inflicted on fossil-fuel producers , incumbency remains a potent force .
Quite apart from the petro-states whose existence rests to a large degree on oil ’ s indefinite prosperity , consider the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year saw a record amount of new liquefied natural gas capacity approved .
Meanwhile , 2.2 million barrels a day of refining capacity was switched on last year — more than double the increase in demand — and another 6 million is due by 2025 ; too much even in an alternate , non-Covid-19 reality .
Steel in the ground tends to create realities of its own .
Like the oil supply currently , and reluctantly , being held off the market today , the underutilized plants of tomorrow will seek any opportunity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whenever they can .
There is no good reason why , when that $ 400 billion or so of investment comes back , it must be spent according to old patterns embedding chronic conditions of boom-and-bust , geopolitical tremors and , of course , runaway climate change .
A striking finding in the IEA report is that spending on electricity services will outpace spending on oil products this year for the first time this century ( and quite possibly ever ) .
The fact it ’ s happening in a plague year means @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , but it does emphasize the scale of the power business — and the scope for investment .
The IEA ’ s long-term scenario under current government mandates is known as “ Stated Policies , ” or STEPS .
The more ambitious one , moving the world closer to Paris Agreement goals — albeit with too much reliance on carbon capture after 2050 — is called “ Sustainable Development , ” or SDS .
Scenarios entail spending , and even under the weaker policy environment , the IEA projects investment in renewables to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SDS , it soars past both gas and oil .
Taken together , investment in renewables and power networks would average almost $ 1 trillion a year globally in the back half of the decade , a jump of 69 % versus 2019 .
Oil and gas , meanwhile , rise by just 16 % under the more favorable scenario and drop 7 % under the climate-friendlier one , with oil dropping 17 % within that .
A trillion a year , especially in the context of changes in policy , will sound @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
But check your priors .
Investment in oil and gas supply was already about $ 750 billion last year , and that was down from mid-decade levels .
Renewables and electrification projects also should create more jobs and lend themselves to more rapid deployment ; think “ move fast and fix things.
” Meanwhile , despite the prevailing wisdom , governments play a much bigger direct role in fossil fuels than in renewables .
The share of government or state-owned enterprises in oil and gas supply or fossil-fuel power generation investment is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the IEA , versus roughly 15 % for renewable energy and efficiency projects .
What , did you actually think Saudi Aramco is a private company now ?
Yes , there are renewable portfolio standards and other policies that encourage more solar and wind power , but those exist because collective myopia has allowed incumbent fossil-fuel interests to lobby successfully against more transparent pricing of carbon .
Yet even with that hindrance , the rapid drop in renewable-energy costs means a dollar spent on those technologies last year bought 50 % more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Imagine the gains possible if market signals were aimed squarely at addressing climate change .
If we are going to spend trillions powering our post-Covid societies anyway , why not optimize it for good outcomes ?


washingtonpost--2020-05-27--Analysis | Did Europe Just Agree to Joint Borrowing? Not Exactly

The EU ’ s initial response to the crisis came mainly in the form of making cheap loans available , a strategy that countries in the south argued would only increase their debt burden and weigh on future economic growth .
In response , German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron championed a 500 billion-euro ( $ 550 billion ) aid package financed through the issuance of bonds by the commission -- the EU ’ s executive arm -- on behalf of the EU as a whole .
Proceeds would be distributed to countries most affected by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Repayments would come from the EU budget , where Germany contributes the lion ’ s share .
The proposal marked a dramatic shift for Germany , which initially opposed any form of mutualized borrowing .
It moved a step closer after the commission announced its proposal for a recovery fund consisting of 500 billion euros to be distributed in the form of grants ( as per the French and German plan ) as well as up to 250 billion euros in loans .
To fund the package , the EU would borrow up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Italy , for instance , stands to receive 82 billion euros in grants and as much as 91 billion euros in low-interest loans , according to an official familiar with the matter .
The package needs unanimous approval from the 27 EU governments , whose leaders will meet June 19 .
Austria , Denmark , the Netherlands and Sweden have signaled their resistance to handing out too much money as grants and said they will look closely at the conditions attached to any aid .
As net donors to the EU budget @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of a major borrowing spree that could leave their taxpayers on the hook for decades to come .
Also , Eastern EU members are worried that they will lose out since repayments will come from the budget .
Broadly speaking , southern European countries , most notably Italy and Spain , have been the hardest hit by the coronavirus .
These are also the nations that came into the crisis with weaker economies and higher levels of debt and unemployment .
The commission has warned that the unevenness of contractions and recoveries will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ put at risk stability in the euro area , whose 19 members share the common currency .
Deep-pocketed member states such as Germany have showered their firms with state aid , while others such as debt-addled Italy can ’ t match that spending power .
That is distorting the level-playing field between companies in the EU ’ s vast single-market .
Social discontent could destabilize governments and fuel anti-European sentiment in countries that are struggling the most .
In short , the EU ’ s future is at stake .
The EU is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t have a common treasury that ’ s expected to support regions in need , the way the U.S. Treasury pours funds to states hit by hurricanes .
Nor does it have anywhere near sufficient funds in its relatively meager common budget to deal with a crisis on this scale .
Even in the euro-using core , the monetary union is not backed by real economic or banking unions .
As the EU ’ s devastating debt crisis of 2010 showed , in tough times money tends to fly to the continent ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the economically weaker countries as their borrowing costs surge .
During the debt crisis , countries in the bloc ’ s south proposed what they called eurobonds , in which member states would pool their borrowing power and spread the burden of additional debt .
The idea was that by issuing jointly backed debt , the financial solidity of countries like Germany and the Netherlands would allow all countries to borrow more cheaply , and dispel doubts about the sustainability of weaker members ’ finances .
This year , that idea was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ termed coronabonds , but was quashed by a group of richer , northern leaders who refused to put their taxpayers on the hook for the liabilities of their southern neighbors .
Germany says the recovery fund does not represent debt mutualization .
First of all , it ’ s a one-off concession for the duration of the crisis .
Second , if coronabonds were issued , the danger for Merkel could be like that faced by someone who signed a lease when a roommate can ’ t pay their share of the rent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for a bigger chunk than it expected .
But in the Merkel-Macron plan , Germany wouldn ’ t be liable for the entire 500 billion envelope , only for its share of the budget , an amount that corresponds to its share of EU economic output .
On the other hand , Germany is the main contributor to the EU budget , so it will repay most of the funds , whatever the debt instruments are called .
“ The Franco-German deal is a real step towards creating the first meaningful EU debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank .
Debt mutualization is not .
Article 125 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union says that neither the EU nor individual member states can be liable for the debts of other governments .
A so-called “ Hamilton moment ” -- as happened in the U.S. in 1790 -- whereby obligations across the 27-nation bloc are mutualized would require treaty changes adopted by national parliaments and in some cases referendums .
So far , there ’ s no sign of majority backing for reform @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a central authority the power to raise taxes and decide how money is spent throughout the EU or even the euro area .
In practice , the bloc ’ s members are progressively sharing increasing levels of risk and have bailed each other out in times of need .
For example , the European Stability Mechanism -- the euro area ’ s crisis fund -- has raised hundreds of billions on debt markets , which it then lent to Greece on terms normally reserved for countries with AAA credit rating , allowing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make billions in savings from interest payments .
The same arrangement is also available now for countries wishing to draw up to 240 billion euros from the fund to finance costs related to the pandemic .
Also , the European Central Bank has been buying massive amounts of debt under its bond-buying programs .
While much of that is held by national central banks , a good chunk is on the ECB ’ s own books , making its shareholders -- euro-area members -- in theory liable for any losses .
In a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ commission , has long been able to borrow , as have other European institutions .
This ability rests on the backing and commitment of member governments to the EU project .
All European institutions have a stellar credit rating , on the assumption of such backing from the richer Northern European nations .
In essence , these nations lend their fiscal muscle to the EU , allowing its institutions to carry out transactions on concessional terms for the benefit of weaker members .
It may not be debt mutualization , but it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-05-27--Analysis | The Coronavirus Hit the U.S. Economy Swiftly and Unevenly


washingtonpost--2020-05-27--Analysis | GE’s Break With Lightbulbs Is Symbolic and Necessary

The symbolism is rich .
After all , GE traces its roots back to Thomas Edison , the inventor of the modern lightbulb , and just celebrated the 128th anniversary of the founding merger of Edison General Electric Co. with Thomson-Houston Electric Co .
The fingerprints of Edison ’ s legacy will linger : The lightbulb gave way to the X-ray machine , which GE still sells through its health-care unit , and early versions of the light bulb used carbon filaments , a permutation of which are now used in jet-engine parts made by the company ’ s aviation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ light-bulb business marks another historic break with GE ’ s past , much like the divestiture of its appliances division to China ’ s Haier Group in 2016 and its hard crash out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2018 .
Like Haier , Savant has struck a long-term licensing agreement to continue branding the bulbs with the GE name .
GE will live on as a household name , but as a shell of its former self .
The lighting sale has been a long time coming .
And while the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ little sad to see GE officially drop out of the consumer landscape , it ’ s a step forward for CEO Larry Culp ’ s turnaround efforts .
GE considered divesting the division that housed the lighting operations amid the financial crisis of 2008 ; this more recent sales effort goes back to at least 2016 .
Jeff Immelt was still CEO back then .
His successor , John Flannery , also included lighting in the list of assets he would try to sell as he dug GE out of a cash-flow hole @ @ @ @ @ @ @ business .
But it was Culp who officially inked a deal to sell the commercial part of the lighting operations to private equity firm American Industrial Partners in late 2018 , and he ’ s the one who ’ s finally found a buyer for the residential lightbulb business .
This asset sale isn ’ t going make or break the company , but every bit helps as the coronavirus pandemic hobbles GE ’ s crown jewel aviation unit and deepens its cash crunch .
It ’ s downright impressive that Culp was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all in the middle of a pandemic .
That may be a big reason why GE shares were up more than 9 % at one point Wednesday morning after the news .
There ’ s no way to sugarcoat the challenges facing the aviation unit right now .
While GE ’ s fleet of engines is younger than many peers and focuses mostly on the narrow-body jets that are likely to come back into service first as air travel starts to slowly pick up again , a wave of retirements for more maintenance-heavy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risks creating a glut of spare parts .
It remains unclear why GE ’ s aviation unit fared so much worse in the first quarter than rival engine maker Pratt & Whitney and other aerospace suppliers .
But the lighting sale is a sign that Culp isn ’ t giving up on turning GE around and adapting the company to its current reality .


washingtonpost--2020-05-26--Analysis | How China Stars Like Alibaba May Be Forced From U.S.

It would force greater disclosure by non-American companies that sell shares on U.S. exchanges .
Specifically , public companies with foreign accounting firms would be banned from America ’ s equity markets unless the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board is granted access to review their audits .
Those companies would also have to confirm that they ’ re not owned or controlled by a foreign government .
China ’ s refusal to let the PCAOB examine Chinese audits , including those for companies registered in Hong Kong , was long a point of contention even before the recent implosion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chain being delisted after an accounting scandal .
“ All I want , and I think all the rest of us want , is for China to play by the rules , ” said Senator John Kennedy , a Republican who introduced the bill , ( S. 945 ) , with a Democratic colleague , Chris Van Hollen .
“ Everybody has to comply with that rule -- American companies , British companies , Malaysian companies , Turkmenistan companies -- except one : Chinese companies .
They just say no.
” Chinese firms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because Chinese national security law prohibits them from turning over audit papers to U.S. regulators .
The NYSE and Nasdaq had previously pushed back against the idea of threatening delistings , but they ’ ve come under increasing U.S. government pressure .
It will if the House clears the Senate measure and President Donald Trump signs it .
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said her chamber will review the bill but hasn ’ t promised to hold a vote .
As for Trump , he ’ s voiced general support for the idea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the legislation figures into the White House ’ s broader China strategy .
It would take a while .
A company would be delisted only after three consecutive years of non-compliance with audit inspections .
It could return by certifying it had retained a registered public accounting firm approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission .
( A subsequent failure to comply could result in a five-year ban . )
The SEC also would have to write rules for how companies could certify they aren ’ t really run by a foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by far the largest U.S.-listed Chinese corporation -- for one .
On a post-earnings call in May , it said it was monitoring developments but stressed its books are audited under U.S. standards by a major accounting house .
Executives added they were aware of discussions between Chinese and American regulators regarding the types of financial information that can be exchanged without violating Chinese laws , but didn ’ t elaborate .
In all , the PCAOB says it ’ s blocked from reviewing the audits of about 200 companies based in China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ PetroChina , Baidu and JD.com .
Major private firms like Alibaba could probably argue that they are not , although others with substantial state ownership may have a harder time .
As of February 2019 , the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission , which reports to Congress , counted at least 11 Chinese companies listed on major U.S. exchanges that were at least 30 % state-owned .
Companies such as China Mobile Ltd. and China Life Insurance Co. could be more directly in the firing line .
Also some companies where the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a stake can be subject to pressure , such as when the central government tried to stop Anbang Insurance Group Co. ’ s acquisition spree before finally taking control of the debt-laden conglomerate in 2018 .
But when such involvement is behind the scenes , it ’ s much harder to prove .
Companies from around the globe are attracted by the liquidity and deep investor base of U.S. capital markets .
They offer access to a much bigger pool of capital , in a potentially speedier time frame .
China ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relatively underdeveloped .
Fund-raising for even quality companies is constrained in a financial system that remains dominated by state-owned lenders .
Trading in China ’ s domestic stock market is dominated by retail , not the institutional investors and deep mutual-fund base active in the U.S. And until recently , the Hong Kong exchange had a ban on dual-class shares , which are often used by tech entrepreneurs to keep control of their startups after going public in the U.S .
It was relaxed in 2018 , prompting big listings from Alibaba , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s another front in the U.S.-China economic conflict that had escalated under the Trump administration even before the coronavirus pandemic that Trump blames on China .
Trump and his trade advisers have long sought to level what they see as a playing field tilted in favor of Chinese companies , which enjoy the trading privileges of a market economy -- including access to U.S. stock exchanges -- while receiving government support and operating in an opaque system .
The Trump administration also accuses Chinese companies of undermining the intellectual property of their U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lawmakers that American money is bankrolling efforts by China ’ s technology giants to develop leading positions in a variety of high-tech fields .
The China Securities Regulatory Commission said the bill was political and would undermine global investor confidence in U.S. capital markets .
The Foreign Ministry said all sides benefit from the overseas listings : The companies can raise funds , the markets have more to offer and investors have a chance “ to share the benefits of China ’ s economic development.
” Robin Li , chief executive officer of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the Nasdaq in 2005 , told state media China Daily that he was “ very concerned about the U.S. government ’ s continuous tightening of controls ” on Chinese companies .
He said Baidu has for some time been considering adding a secondary listing in Hong Kong , as Alibaba did last year , but that it ’ s “ not so worried ” about a U.S. crackdown having an “ irreparable impact ” on the business .
“ Our fundamental judgment is that if it is a good company , there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and it is not limited to the United States , ” he said .


washingtonpost--2020-05-28--Analysis | How Can I Get It? The Evidence on Virus Transmission

In its first major report on the Covid-19 outbreak , the WHO said the virus spreads in respiratory droplets -- spatters of liquid that are sometimes visible to the naked eye and are forcefully expelled from an infected person ’ s cough or sneeze .
These are usually heavy enough to fall immediately to the ground or surrounding surfaces .
Infection could occur if the droplets reach the mouth , nose or possibly the eye of someone nearby .
Transmission can also occur indirectly , via a hand that has touched a so-called fomite -- a contaminated surface or object @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A study concluded that the coronavirus can survive as long as 24 hours on cardboard , 48 hours on stainless steel and 72 hours on plastic .
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in late May that fomites weren ’ t thought to be the main way the virus spreads .
The WHO recommends people wash their hands frequently and keep a distance of least 1 meter ( 3 feet ) from anyone who has a fever , cough or other respiratory symptoms .
It advises against shaking hands , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ households with a suspected or confirmed case of infection , the CDC suggests keeping that person separated from others as much as possible and cleaning and disinfecting “ high-touch surfaces ” in common areas -- such as switches , tables and remotes -- daily .
People also emit particles from their noses and mouths that are so small , instead of falling right to the ground , they can float for a time through the air .
When a virus is carried by these so-called aerosols , its odds of infecting people are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be inhaled .
Since February , the WHO has said this method of transmission “ can be envisaged ” in health-care facilities conducting procedures such as a tracheotomy on people with Covid-19 .
Researchers who aerosolized it intentionally found active virus can float in the air for as long as 3 hours .
The WHO , in a statement , said the experiment reflected neither normal human coughing nor aerosol-generating medical procedures .
In another study , not yet peer-reviewed , researchers found particles of the virus in the air of rooms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adjacent hallways .
The particles they identified , however , were not capable of causing infection .
In another study , researchers who examined air samples in two hospitals in China raised the theoretical concern that aerosols could arise from surfaces contaminated by droplets , for instance when hospital workers shed their masks and gowns , or when floors were cleaned .
These risks are one reason medical workers who deal with suspected or confirmed Covid-19 patients are directed to wear face masks , specifically the more protective type known as respirators , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ health authorities across the world recommend members of the public cover their faces when out in public .
Where medical masks are in short supply , many suggest that ordinary people use home-made versions .
Another possible route of transmission arises when infected people improperly wash their hands after using the toilet , and then touch surfaces that others come in contact with .
Some patients have been found to have live virus particles in their stool .
The WHO has said that the fecal-to-oral route does not appear to be a significant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the extent it is a means of transmission , sanitizing bathrooms , food-preparation and serving areas could help slow the virus , in addition to regular hand-washing .
They may be a source of infection if contaminated by a carrier ’ s respiratory secretions or feces .
The virus was found to have spread readily among food service workers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship , where about one in five people became infected while it was quarantined off Yokohama , Japan .
Chinese health officials recommended strengthened sanitation and hygiene measures in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ water , avoiding eating raw food , washing hands frequently , disinfecting toilets and preventing water and food from being contaminated by patients .
According to U.S. officials , the coronavirus has not been detected in municipal drinking water supplies .
Conventional treatment methods that use filtration and disinfection should remove or inactivate the virus .
After the infection appeared in babies born to mothers with the disease in China , the possibility was raised that the virus could be passed in utero .
Subsequent studies reached different conclusions .
One looked at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uninfected babies .
No virus was detected in amniotic fluid , cord blood , the babies ’ throats or in breast milk , suggesting that transmission from mother to child occurs through respiratory droplets .
However , doctors in China reported on the case of a mother with Covid-19 whose baby had elevated antibody levels two hours after birth .
That suggests the baby was infected in utero , since the antibodies aren ’ t transferred to the fetus via the placenta and usually don ’ t appear until three to seven days @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-05-28--Analysis | China Isn’t Using Its Currency as a Cold War Weapon

On Wednesday , the offshore yuan , which trades freely , flirted with its weakest level on record , dropping as much as 0.7 % to 7.1965 .
While Thursday morning ’ s yuan fix came in stronger than expected , the overall sentiment is downbeat .
It ’ s tempting to theorize that a weaker yuan could become a powerful weapon in the new Cold War , yet there ’ s little evidence of foul play from the People ’ s Bank of China .
Since mid-2017 , the central bank has based its fixing on the previous day @ @ @ @ @ @ @ against a currency basket , and what it calls the “ countercyclical factor , ” a catch-all metric that grants wiggle room to deviate from market fundamentals .
The yuan can move in a 2 % trading range around the PBOC ’ s daily target .
Take a look at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ’ s estimate of the countercyclical factor .
Over the last year , the PBOC has been consistently guiding its yuan stronger , not weaker , to artificially track the dollar .
For all the theatrics of getting labeled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t making its exports any cheaper .
What ’ s new this year is the PBOC ’ s Zen-like attitude .
Rather than playing the heroic fireman , handling one crisis after another , the central bank has been largely hands-off .
It has used the countercyclical factor in a meaningful way only twice since January , on Feb. 4 when China emerged from the Lunar New Year holiday to face a national lockdown , and at the end of March when the outbreak was shaking up global markets .
And why should @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ?
The coronavirus downturn has only showcased America ’ s exceptionalism — it prints the world ’ s reserve currency .
Haven demand for the dollar has surged , evidenced by soaring currency swap rates from the euro zone to South Korea , and the Federal Reserve ’ s scramble to re-establish swap lines with other central banks .
Looking back to 2008 , the greenback only started to weaken two months after demand for “ emergency dollars ” peaked , data provided by Deutsche Bank AG show .
So it makes sense @ @ @ @ @ @ @ approach , allowing the yuan to weaken during periods of dollar strength , and catch up when global tensions recede .
From the PBOC ’ s view , the trade-weighted yuan is certainly stronger now than it was last fall , when the central bank was in fire-fighting mode .
China doesn ’ t want to spend another $ 1 trillion of its foreign reserves defending its currency .
The rapid drawdown in 2015 and 2016 traumatized the Chinese for good .
To be sure , the pressure of capital outflows is still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ negative value of the “ net error and omissions ” figures in China ’ s balance of payment data .
However , here ’ s the beauty of the virus : The Chinese can ’ t go anywhere .
They can ’ t come to Hong Kong to buy insurance products , and unless you ’ re ultra-rich ( with private bankers around the world apartment-hunting for you ) , Manhattan real estate is off-limits .
The PBOC has less to worry about than before .
So now the market can test the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could easily drop below 7.30 if the phase one trade deal breaks down and the Trump administration imposes some of the tariffs it had previously threatened , estimates HSBC Holdings Plc .
Long-time China bear Kyle Bass abandoned his yuan short in early 2019 for the greenback-pegged Hong Kong dollar .
He didn ’ t profit from his yuan trade because the PBOC established powerful tools , such as selling yuan-denominated bills in the offshore market , to kill anyone betting against the currency .
Now that their interests are becoming aligned , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to wake up .


washingtonpost--2020-04-09--Analysis | Norwegian Air Shuttle Tries a Desperate Final Gambit

Late on Wednesday , Norwegian spelled out what it will take to keep the lights on : Bondholders and lessors are being asked to convert a portion of more than $ 4 billion in liabilities into equity , so that the group can tap 3 billion kroner ( $ 290 million ) of loan guarantees offered by Norway ’ s government .
Long-suffering shareholders face dilution but the airline is out of better options .
Having thrice raised capital from equity investors in the past couple of years and with the markets in turmoil , a rights issue would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capitalized at just $ 130 million , about half the list price of one of its Boeing 787 Dreamliner jets .
It can ’ t borrow more without the government ’ s backing because lenders worry that its $ 5.7 billion of borrowings won ’ t be repaid .
Some 250 million euros of Norwegian bonds maturing next year sell for less than half their face value .
Norway is offering only modest help and on onerous terms , unlike the U.S. , whose airlines have been promised up to $ 50 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them frittered away cash on share buybacks prior to this crisis .
Elsewhere , governments are rightly wary of rewarding struggling airlines for prior mismanagement and risking taxpayer cash on carriers that have significant international ownership and operations .
That ’ s something Richard Branson ’ s Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd. has discovered in its lobbying for help from the U.K. Until a recent change of management and strategy , Norwegian was too focused on growth , too tolerant of losses and bought too many planes .
The carefree approach was summed up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a subsidiary in Argentina .
The group held only about $ 290 million of cash at the end of December .
Most of the low-cost transatlantic services that have made Norwegian well known in the U.S. serve airports on Europe ’ s western fringe , not Oslo .
Norwegian generates only about one-fifth of its sales from domestic customers and most of its staff are based overseas .
It ’ s no wonder Norway ’ s help is contingent on the company boosting its balance sheet and making shareholders and lenders pay a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bondholders to forgo debt service payments and has withheld some lease payments , without apparent repercussions .
But getting lenders to agree to swap the money that ’ s owed to them into equity won ’ t be straightforward .
The financing arrangements are complicated .
Norwegian ’ s once-valuable takeoff slots at London ’ s Gatwick Airport have been already pledged as security for borrowings , and many of its planes are leased .
Even if some of its debt burden is erased , the airline ’ s prospects look bleak .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , credit card processors have withheld cash due to Norwegian from ticket sales .
With their trips now cancelled , customers have asked for their money back .
Large fixed costs will drain the company ’ s cash until its planes can fly again .
Founder and former Chief Executive Officer Bjorn Kjos has sold a big chunk of shares , which isn ’ t encouraging .
Norwegian must hope that lenders decide it ’ s worth preserving the airline in its current form , rather than letting it collapse and stripping it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but the brand is decent .
Passengers love paying very little to fly across the Atlantic on a shiny new plane .


washingtonpost--2020-04-09--Analysis | You’ve Heard of 5G. Now Meet Wi-Fi 6.

The good news is that Wi-Fi has been quietly getting a much-needed upgrade , too .
Unfortunately , it hasn ’ t arrived in time for this moment , when we all need it most .
But it ’ s just around the corner , and later this month , the Federal Communications Commission will vote on freeing up lots of spectrum in an important step for the next generation of indoor wireless technology , known as Wi-Fi 6 .
If you ’ re thinking , “ Wait , I don ’ t remember Wi-Fi 4 or 5 , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ convention is relatively new .
Eighteen months ago , the Wi-Fi Alliance began designating 802.11ac technology , for example — and the devices that support it — as Wi-Fi 5 .
That ’ s the current standard , and it ’ s about seven years old .
( The standard for Wi-Fi 6 is 802.11ax , if you must know . )
But forget the tech jargon .
All you really need to know is that Wi-Fi 6 will be faster and much more efficient , capable of powering a growing number of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ smart TVs , video-game consoles , connected kitchen appliances , virtual-reality platforms and so on .
Wi-Fi 5 can handle some but not all those at once , leading to network congestion and slowdowns as the devices in our homes battle for bandwidth .
Some households may be getting a taste of this because of the pandemic if , say , one parent is trying to conduct a Zoom video conference call from a laptop , while another streams Netflix and the kids use their tablets to attend virtual school lessons or play @ @ @ @ @ @ @ so many devices will also be useful in places such as packed concert venues .
In that way , Wi-Fi 6 is like the indoor version of 5G .
And it has other neat features , such as extending the battery life of our devices by getting to know when they ’ re normally used and waiting to check to send or receive data until then .
Wi-Fi 6 exists ; there just aren ’ t many routers or devices available yet that support it .
The FCC vote on April 23 will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1,200 megahertz of spectrum in the 6-gigahertz band being made available .
There are already licensed users of those airwaves , such as news broadcasters and cities for their public-safety dispatches .
In a complex feat of engineering , those incumbents will be able to continue using it as well .
Wireless and home internet providers say U.S. networks are generally holding up despite the surge in demand in recent weeks , though some third-party sources have shown large speed declines in certain cities .
We need better data , and the FCC @ @ @ @ @ @ @ informed .
But at least some of the frustration that ’ s come with trying to connect to the internet while we ’ re all cooped up at home will eventually be resolved by Wi-Fi 6 .
Hopefully there just won ’ t be another reason like this to test it .


washingtonpost--2020-04-09--Third Week of Big U.S. Jobless Claims Sees 6.61 Million Filings

• As wide swaths of the economy shut down , workers have been laid off across industries with unprecedented speed .
Filings will likely stay elevated in the coming weeks , after more states issued stay-at-home orders and Americans get through to file claims on jammed websites and phone lines .
• The three-week tally implies an unemployment rate approaching 15 % , well above the 10 % peak reached in the wake of the last recession .
The rate was 4.4 % in March data that mainly covered the early part of the month , up from a half-century @ @ @ @ @ @ @ • California reported the most initial claims last week , at an unadjusted 925,000 .
Nationally , initial claims averaged about 216,000 a week in the 12 months through February , and the weekly record before the pandemic was 695,000 in 1982 .
• Continuing claims -- which are reported with a one-week lag and represent Americans currently receiving unemployment benefits -- jumped by 4.4 million to 7.46 million in the week ended March 28 .
That pushed the insured unemployment rate up to 5.1 % -- the highest since 1982 -- from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and U.S. stocks rose at the open after the simultaneous announcement of new Federal Reserve facilities and jobless claims data .
• Michigan was next at about 385,000 , followed by New York with 345,000 and Texas with 314,000 .
• Florida had 170,000 new claims .
Widely reported problems with filing in Florida and Texas -- two of the most populous states -- suggest the numbers will continue to be large as residents eventually become able to apply for benefits .
“ The sudden and extraordinary deterioration in the labor market supports @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rate will head toward 15 % in April , and possibly higher later in the quarter unless the torrent of jobless filings starts to subside.
” • The Fed announced another series of sweeping steps to provide as much as $ 2.3 trillion in additional aid during the coronavirus pandemic , including starting programs to aid small and mid-sized businesses as well as state and local governments .
Prices paid to U.S. producers declined 0.2 % in March from a month earlier as energy costs plummeted the most in five years , Labor @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-04-13--Analysis | Bob Iger’s Long Disney Goodbye Just Got Longer

After 15 years as CEO and an ever-fluid retirement date , Iger abruptly relinquished the title in February , staying on in a somewhat undefined role as executive chairman .
Bob Chapek , a longtime Disney executive who had been running the parks and cruises side of the company , stepped into his shoes .
It was seven weeks ago , and yet the world was so different : Americans could still go to work , Disney ’ s domestic theme parks were bustling , toilet paper hoarding was only just beginning and for many , the coronavirus outbreak was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the news rather than a lived experienced .
Then , suddenly , as the pandemic shut down wide swathes of the U.S. economy and took particular aim at some of Disney ’ s core businesses , a momentous retirement that seemed like it ’ d never arrive was instead happening all too quickly .
Technically , there is a new Bob at the helm of the $ 182 billion conglomerate now ; in reality , he ’ s known as “ Bob C , ” secondary to the true “ Bob ” — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Times article Monday that gave an inside look at how the succession plan may be unexpectedly reverting .
( Then again , Disney never was known for its clean CEO transitions . )
In scary times like these , businesses need clear leadership , and despite what may have been Chapek ’ s best efforts , Iger ’ s is still the voice that matters .
It ’ s also a chance for Iger to take care of some unfinished business .
While he was personally focused on acquisitions in recent years to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ — Pixar , Marvel , “ Star Wars ” — and making investments in the future of content delivery , the theme parks had become a fairly predictable , if sometimes overshadowed , business .
Now , that division has been hit hardest by the Covid-19 pandemic , and unlike the last financial crisis and recession , this one may not have the promise of a return to normal .
At Walt Disney World in Florida , which has been closed for about a month , the company plans to furlough 43,000 workers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when its attractions can reopen , or how long before consumers are comfortable returning to crowded venues or cruise ships again .
Disney had already been in the process of expanding its four-ship cruise line with three more vessels .
Forecasts of Disney ’ s overall earnings before interest , taxes , depreciation and amortization for its fiscal year ending in September have fallen sharply , from almost $ 18 billion in January , to just under $ 13 billion now .
According to the Times , industry analyst Hal Vogel estimates Disney @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a day .
It earned about $ 31 million a day in operating profit in 2019 .
Disney has managed to sign up more than 50 million paying customers for Disney+ , the Netflix-like streaming product it launched in November .
That ’ s a significant achievement in a short period of time .
However , with Hollywood studio productions shut down for the time being , the criticism that Disney+ doesn ’ t have enough fresh content will only become more valid .
The service also won ’ t begin making money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it was , the pivot to streaming had thrown the future of Disney ’ s lucrative media networks into question .
Now , with no live sports to air or discuss on ESPN , the network is looking even more like an awkward fit within Disney .
I once suggested that Iger spin off ESPN , and several years later it still doesn ’ t seem too complicated to do .
Even the network ’ s own direct-to-consumer streaming service , ESPN+ , has been the weaker sibling of Disney+ and Hulu , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s $ 13-a-month streaming subscription bundle essentially gives away the sports app for free .
In recent years , Disney has ruled the box office , and it will again once cinemas reopen and movie sets get back to work .
The question is whether consumers , after spending so much time home and expecting immediate access to new films , will be broken of the habit of visiting theaters — or if Disney ’ s superhero and galactic blockbusters will always be enough of a draw .
It ’ s all this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In his business memoir released last year , “ The Ride of a Lifetime , ” Iger wrote that he believes Disney and Apple Inc. would have become one if Steve Jobs were still alive .
Looking ahead to Disney ’ s post-pandemic future , the company may look smaller , both in terms of business units and employees — although staff reductions are sure to be a prickly topic for a CEO who , even with his admirable track record , was criticized toward the end for being overpaid .


washingtonpost--2020-04-13--Analysis | Masayoshi Son’s Impatience Just Cost $17 Billion

With Agarwal , the SoftBank founder even went a step further .
He backed a $ 2 billion loan to let the 25-year old buy back shares in Oyo , driving the value to $ 10 billion — with the added effect of boosting the Vision Fund ’ s paper profits .
Son probably preferred that the stake , bought from earlier backers , land in the hands of the Indian entrepreneur than a rival investor .
But now those huge bets are starting to unravel .
SoftBank late Monday said it expects to record an investment loss of 1.8 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the year ended March 31 .
That translates to about $ 16.6 billion , and takes a sizable chunk out of the $ 100 billion fund .
The company will take a further 800 billion yen loss on investments outside the fund , including writedowns on WeWork and WorldVu Satellites Ltd. , better known as OneWeb .
Oyo is just one victim of this SoftBank-fueled roller-coaster , which accelerated when the Covid-19 pandemic started to spread .
The Indian startup has furloughed staff in a bid to save cash , and founder Agarwal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ if he faces margin calls .
Son ’ s insistence that startups grow faster than their founders planned , and strong-arm them into taking more money than they might have wanted , has turned into a burden .
And that ’ s become a huge liability to investors in the Vision Fund and SoftBank , too .
By throwing cash around , dozens of startups became addicted to spending instead of building fiscal discipline into their business models .
For years , it seemed like a sound strategy .
By having more money @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market share by offering bigger incentives , taking out more ads and luring the best talent .
It ’ s easy to blame the venture capital model itself .
The whole point of this founding pile of cash is to tide a business over until it finds a working model that ’ s sustainable .
And in starting the Vision Fund with a $ 100 billion endowment , Son wanted to be the Godfather of venture capitalists .
But a good VC shouldn ’ t just be a loud cheerleader for its portfolio @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wise old voice of reason when founders ’ success gets to their head .
Savvy VCs can advise when to pivot , when to kill products and when to sell out to a rival .
Instead , the Vision Fund acts more like the loud soccer mom , intent on letting the world know that her kid is best on field and screaming at the coach when the child gets benched .
Just as Son has been the enabler of fiscally dubious business models , investors in SoftBank and the Vision Fund have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recklessness .
For over a decade , Son has been dining out on his winning bet on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. , with few detractors brave enough to poke a stick at the pile of debt he ’ s built up along the way to buy telcos and internet companies .
It ’ s perhaps no surprise that after Moody ’ s Corp. last month downgraded SoftBank ’ s debt , noting that a sale of assets right now would be challenging , SoftBank threw a tantrum and fired the credit ratings provider @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to investors for the WeWork debacle indicates that his brash , impatient style can ’ t be unwound .
That bold , fearless vision is at the core of his identity and the foundation of his success .
He is who he is , and that ’ s unlikely to change .
But investors in SoftBank and the Vision Fund can change .
They just have to realize that Son ’ s impatience is not a virtue .


washingtonpost--2020-04-13--Three Areas Economists Are Watching to Gauge Recovery’s Strength

Economists pointed to three crucial areas they say will matter most .
For one , the speed with which small and mid-sized business aid finds its mark .
A second , the level of support for states and cities later this year .
And third , something -- anything -- to restore public confidence in getting back to life , and business , as usual .
The unprecedented nature of the current contraction makes it almost impossible for forecasters to tell us how bad it ’ s going to get .
Their models , after all , rely heavily on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that forecasts span an eye-popping range .
Estimates for second-quarter annualized GDP growth submitted to Bloomberg since April 10 range from -65 % to 0.4 % .
To its credit , the federal government has made significant stimulus available .
Congress in late March appropriated more than $ 2 trillion to beef up unemployment benefits , send direct aid to lower and middle-income households , offer grants to small businesses and provide bailouts for airlines and other big firms .
President Donald Trump swiftly signed the legislation into law .
But what ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disbursement of cash .
And so far , more than three weeks after the first stay-at-home orders were issued , very little money has been delivered .
The Paycheck Protection Program -- created to hand out $ 349 billion to small companies through loans that convert to grants if a company retains or rehires its workers -- got off to a rocky start .
The White House said April 9 that $ 128 billion of loans had been processed .
But very little , if any , of that money had actually been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a separate program , the Main Street lending facility , that will make $ 600 billion in loans available to small and mid-sized companies .
But even as officials revealed details of the scheme on April 9 , they couldn ’ t give any timetable for when it might open .
“ There ’ s going to have to be a certain tolerance of imperfection ” in getting aid programs running , said David Wilcox , a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics .
“ They can not afford to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ do need to recognize the urgency of the situation because economic dreams are being shattered on an daily basis.
” On April 3 she applied for a $ 170,000 PPP loan that will let her rehire her staff and pay rent and other bills .
Her bank , EagleBank , said they might be able to approve the application and release funds this week .
But maybe not .
Okusa is already exploring options -- including the possibility of a merger or sale .
Past the fire wagon stage , Congress will have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the eventual recovery by bailing out cities and states , which are headed for major budget shortfalls as tax revenues plummet and corona-related spending rises .
Without help they could be forced to make draconian cuts to spending and jobs .
“ The State and local government component is going to be critical because so many states have balanced budget amendments , ” said Seth Carpenter , chief U.S. economist at UBS Securities LLC and a former Treasury official .
“ Any way to prevent contractionary fiscal policy , whether federal or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ help differentiate the recovery after this recession from the last one.
” The third challenge may be harder to address .
Even if the novel coronavirus doesn ’ t flare up again in the autumn or next year , the fear of its re-emergence may cause dramatic and long-lasting changes to social behavior , and by extension to economic activity .
That in mind , steps that rebuild public confidence in normal activities will be central to restoring economic normalcy .
The best solution will come with a vaccine , estimated to take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , other new medical therapies may reduce anxiety .


washingtonpost--2020-04-13--Analysis | Why Private Equity’s Biggest Names Are Getting Into a Small-Loan Backwater

Business development companies are a type of closed-end investment firm .
Their roots go back to the Small Business Investment Incentive Act , passed by Congress in 1980 to give a boost to middle-market businesses -- in today ’ s terms , typically those with $ 100 million or less in annual earnings .
The shares of a BDC can change hands like a stock .
They ’ re also designed to give retail investors access to credit markets they are otherwise unable to bet on .
In return for supporting small American businesses , the firms enjoy certain benefits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dole out at least 90 % of their income as dividends to shareholders .
BDCs were originally designed to provide capital to borrowers considered too small or risky by banks or traditional lenders .
But the sizes of some checks , and recipients , ballooned .
Ares Capital Corp. , a behemoth BDC with $ 15 billion in assets , in late 2018 participated in a $ 792 million loan for the refinancing of Pathway Vet Alliance , a private equity-backed operator of veterinary hospitals .
The deal was still among one of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as of Dec. 31 .
After the financial crisis , U.S. banks facing new regulatory requirements concentrated on the safest kinds of investment .
That left an opening for what ’ s variously known as private credit , direct lending or shadow banking -- money coming from investors outside of the banking system .
With interest rates low , private lenders gravitated toward some higher risk , higher yield parts of the field .
Private lending overall ballooned to an $ 812 billion market .
BDCs , meanwhile , grew to a $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 19 billion in 2009 , according to Advantage Data .
Dividends .
BDCs pay out loan proceeds in the form of dividends that in good times tend to be both stable and relatively high .
In recent flush periods , the stocks on the Wells Fargo Business Development Company index paid an average dividend yield of more than 9 % , about double that of a typical junk-bond fund .
BDCs are usually able to hand out the hefty dividends because they invest in riskier parts of companies ’ capital structures , like @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t pay tax on profits .
For borrowers , BDCs provide financing for growth initiatives , acquisitions or buyouts that they might not otherwise be able to access .
Several factors .
Bad bets on loans can send a BDC ’ s stock plummeting .
That tends to have more of an impact on shareholders than the BDC managers , whose fees are tied to the number of assets they hold rather than the firm ’ s performance .
The structure creates an incentive for managers to grow as large as possible without @ @ @ @ @ @ @ making .
And in 2018 , Congress gave BDCs the green light to boost their debt-to-equity ratios to 2:1 , from 1:1 , that is , to use twice as much borrowed money .
BDCs could end up being among the debt market ’ s biggest losers in the current uncertainty .
“ The BDC sector is among those most affected by this credit shock , ” analysts at Moody ’ s Investors Service wrote in an April report , downgrading their outlook for the sector to negative from stable .
Moody ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ values due to the vulnerability of many smaller and mid-sized businesses who borrow from BDCs to the pandemic ’ s disruption , which could weaken the companies ’ liquidity positions and lead to covenant breaches on their own debt .
Despite the negatives , the current market turbulence may shift terms in lenders ’ favor , according to Fitch Ratings .
Better-rated BDCs also have few immediate debt maturities , putting them in a stronger position .
The Federal Reserve has rolled out programs -- the Main Street New Loan Facility and Main @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that may benefit BDC borrowers .
But analysts say some companies won ’ t qualify due to their high leverage levels .
The Securities and Exchange Commission has also given BDCs temporary regulatory relief on asset coverage rules that essentially cap debt-to-equity ratios , allowing them to use the value of their portfolios as of Dec. 31 when doing the calculations .


washingtonpost--2020-05-14--Analysis | How Disinformation Has Morphed for the 2020 Election

It seems not .
U.S. intelligence agencies have warned that countries including Russia , China and Iran see the 2020 election as another opportunity to promote their strategic interests .
Senator Bernie Sanders was briefed early this year about what were described as Russian efforts to covertly aid his campaign for the Democratic nomination , ostensibly to help President Donald Trump .
Meanwhile , the U.S. Justice Department and the European Union have said they are tracking disinformation campaigns by Russia and China aimed at sowing societal and political divisions in the West over the coronavirus crisis .
The tactics @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provocateurs , are evolving , becoming stealthier to avoid being detected and evicted from social media platforms .
The Kremlin-connected Internet Research Agency , the troll farm linked to the 2016 election meddling , now avoids telltale posts with misspellings and poor grammar by lifting divisive messages directly from U.S. sites or publications , and may also be paying Americans to post on their behalf , according to a New York Times report .
While disinformation campaigns in 2016 relied primarily on regular images and text , officials warn that now they may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ video that has been altered or fabricated using machine-learning technologies .
Some domestic political operators have learned the same tricks and are pushing the boundaries .
The Times has reported on a group of Democratic tech experts who conducted a “ small experiment ” in the 2018 Alabama Senate race , by imitating Russian social media tactics .
The Atlantic exposed what it said were plans for a “ billion dollar disinformation campaign ” to re-elect the president ; Trump ’ s campaign called the story itself disinformation .
Google has pulled dozens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s re-election campaign -- and three for Democrats seeking to run against him -- for unspecified policy violations ( the policy includes rules against false claims and deepfakes ) .
Twitter suspended about 70 accounts tweeting identical messages in support of Michael Bloomberg ’ s short-lived presidential candidacy , describing them as violating its rules against “ manipulation and spam.
” ( Bloomberg is the owner of Bloomberg LP , the parent company of Bloomberg News . )
A bipartisan report released in 2019 by a Senate committee didn ’ t find evidence @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also included hacking and releasing Democratic Party emails -- changed the election outcome .
But researchers at Ohio State University , using post-election surveys , said that the impact of fake news on voters in key battleground states “ may have been sufficient to deprive Hillary Clinton of a victory.
” The website BuzzFeed found that of the 20 top-performing false election stories in the last three months of the campaign , 17 were pro-Trump or anti-Clinton .
In 2018 , the White House eased rules on “ offensive cyber operations ” aimed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ electoral process.
” The effort reportedly included sending direct messages to individual Russians behind disinformation operations letting them know that they had been identified , and an attack that temporarily took the Internet Research Agency offline .
The Department of Homeland Security said there was no evidence of actual foreign interference in voting that year , although the influence campaigns continued .
In 2018 , then-Special Counsel Robert Mueller charged 13 Russians and three companies with a conspiracy to meddle in the 2016 election , a case that was expanded last year .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ each month for what it calls “ coordinated inauthentic behavior , ” including on its Instagram platform .
One Russia-directed network yanked in March was targeting the U.S. , while two of eight pulled in April originated in the U.S. and also focused domestically .
Facebook has expanded a fact-checking program aimed at labeling fake news , but refused to subject political advertising to such scrutiny on free speech grounds .
“ People should be able to hear from those who wish to lead them , warts and all , ” the company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rules for political advertisers , including requiring proof that they have a domestic address to place ads in the U.S .
It also has closed hundreds of accounts and has begun removing ( or labeling ) deepfakes and other “ deceptively altered or fabricated ” media .
Facebook has said that it will remove deepfake videos intended to mislead , but not those edited in traditional ways .
Some researchers warn that while the social media companies have spent billions of dollars globally since 2016 preparing , their methods may be no match @ @ @ @ @ @ @ example , one study found adding “ disputed ” to a post could be counterproductive , as some readers took the absence of a label on others as meaning by default that story was true .
Others say the companies have failed to account for the way disinformation tactics have evolved and spread .
In a September report , New York University ’ s Stern Center for Business and Human Rights found examples of homegrown disinformation about the 2020 candidates across social media , including fake sex scandals and a race-based smear campaign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ both flooded by disinformation regarding the coronavirus , prompting yet another round of countermeasures .
Asked why Facebook was able to act so aggressively around the disease , but less so around politics , Chief Executive Office Mark Zuckerberg said the health data is more “ black and white .
”