washingtonpost--2020-04-30--Analysis | ‘Trolls’ Triumph Doesn’t Change Movie Math

The feud is raising questions about the future of movie theaters : Will they rebound from the pandemic and survive the threat of streaming ?
Or are they done for ?
The answer isn ’ t so black and white .
But first , the beef with Universal : It began when the studio decided to make the “ Trolls World Tour ” animated movie available on demand in April for a $ 20 rental fee instead of waiting to show it in theaters once it ’ s safe for them to reopen .
The cinema industry was fuming .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ” John Fithian , head of the National Association of Theatre Owners , told the Hollywood Reporter at the time .
“ Trolls ” did so well — generating nearly $ 100 million in rental fees — that even when theaters do reopen , Universal is now planning to release movies both there and on demand , according to a Wall Street Journal article on Tuesday citing Jeff Shell , the newly minted CEO of NBCUniversal .
AMC ’ s Adam Aron responded with a blistering public letter to Universal announcing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some hollow or ill-considered threat.
” Maybe not , but consider what it ’ s going up against : Universal ’ s parent , Comcast Corp. , owns a powerful U.S. cable-TV and internet business , the Sky pay-TV service in Europe , Fandango , Vudu and the new Peacock streaming app .
Cineworld Plc , Regal ’ s European parent , also made a point to shame Universal , but without going so far as to ban its films .
The way AMC and Cineworld see it , Universal breached the sacred @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 90 days or so of box-office exclusivity .
Even before the coronavirus outbreak , there had been pressure to shrink that time frame as more consumers become accustomed to streaming new releases from home on services such as Netflix .
Companies such as Walt Disney Co. and Comcast are also getting into the streaming game .
It ’ s an especially touchy subject for AMC , which has about $ 5 billion of debt and another $ 5 billion in lease obligations .
The chain had been in spending mode in recent years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ due to virus-related regional lockdowns , its mega-circuit can ’ t generate revenue .
That said , cinemas probably won ’ t disappear after the crisis .
They ’ ll struggle , but they ’ ll be around , subsisting on what they can — blockbusters here and there and fewer customers .
It ’ s a bit like brick-and-mortar retailers that have seen the writing on the wall but still have enough demand to keep going .
Media giants need the box office .
There ’ s simply too much money at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work without it .
Consider that when a family goes to the movies , they ’ re buying multiple tickets , which can quickly add up to more than the $ 20 that it costs a single household to watch on demand .
And keep in mind that the studio has to give a cut of that streaming fee to the distribution platform — Amazon.com Inc. , Apple Inc. , Google ’ s YouTube , etc .
A movie that generates $ 1 billion in box-office ticket sales may earn roughly $ 440 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to Rich Greenfield , an analyst for LightShed Partners , who ran the numbers in a March report .
He found that in order to replace those profits through on-demand viewing , 21 million households would need to rent the movie at $ 30 a pop , for total fees of $ 630 million — or more than six times what “ Tolls ” generated , as successful as it was .
And that ’ s without assuming any marketing expenses , which of course is unrealistic , especially given all @ @ @ @ @ @ @ given day .
“ Trolls World Tour ” also had the benefit of timing and unusual circumstances : It was released near the height of the pandemic , just as kids were really starting to go stir crazy .
It ’ s not something most families are ready to pay for every weekend , and not when the entire Netflix library costs just $ 13 a month — ditto for Disney+ at $ 7 .


washingtonpost--2020-04-30--Analysis | Modi’s India Is Hurting. It Needs a Roosevelt

Seeing how the U.S. Small Business Administration ’ s paycheck protection program has been overwhelmed by demand , India needs to match urgency with careful design .
My colleague Shuli Ren has noted how Chinese business owners have diverted anti-virus funding to property or wealth management products .
This could happen in India , too .
Yet it would be a bigger mistake to dither indefinitely because some fiscal assistance may be misused .
Three out of four Indian employees work casually for others or at family firms and farms .
It ’ s perfectly normal for even white-collar workers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social security .
Migrant blue-collar workers are either walking hundreds of kilometers back to their villages or have already returned , scared and scarred , from the cities .
If broad-based help isn ’ t offered to small businesses , the strides the country has taken in lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty over the last 30 years might be at risk .
Since the goal is to protect workers by giving employers an incentive to pay them , hitting that objective in a highly informal economy is the first challenge .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , nonbank financiers and debt mutual funds — like the six local Franklin Templeton entities put into suspended animation last week — are gripped by a mistrust of borrowers that predates the pandemic .
Fiscal fear-mongering is the third obstacle .
I ’ m assuming the state-backed advances would be offered at a concessional rate , with the interest subsidy borne in the federal budget .
Banks would make loans for a fee , and turn them over to the guarantee fund , which would issue bonds to fund the purchase .
Since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Delhi , the bonds can be sovereign-backed .
Who will buy them ?
Even if foreign investors don ’ t bite because of nervousness about the rupee , local banks are flush with liquidity .
State Bank of India will still make money even if a customer defaults , if it sells its exposure to the fund in exchange for special sovereign bonds .
Every nudge by the Reserve Bank of India to make lenders take credit risk has fallen flat because they want the sovereign to lead .
That ’ s where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ % of GDP , taxpayers ’ exposure isn ’ t minor .
Yet the backstop won ’ t meet pent-up demand .
Amplifying its effect , and ensuring that banks don ’ t just throw money at politically connected borrowers , will require lenders to keep some skin in the game .
Say the fund buys $ 80 of every $ 100 of risk , leaving $ 20 with banks .
Just as with the U.S. protection program , lenders ought to be able to get cheap term loans from the RBI to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ working capital needs swell because large customers , including the government , take too long to pay .
A parallel push to get all vendor bills on a discounting platform will improve cash flows .
To ensure that the extra credit actually reaches workers , New Delhi may have to defray a part of the wage bill for some time .
Businesses taking the help would demonstrate regular payments into social security accounts , topped up by the government .
This expensive separate arrangement might require the central bank to fund it by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rate in excess of 23 % , this isn ’ t a time to worry about losing India ’ s investment-grade sovereign rating .
The country ’ s chances of slipping into junk-bond status are low this year anyway .
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given little indication that he wants to be India ’ s version of President Franklin D. Roosevelt .
But migrant workers tossed out of cities with no food , shelter or transport won ’ t return without a New Deal : nest eggs for old age and healthcare @ @ @ @ @ @ @ city permits — discriminate against rural workers .
In India , where urbanization and labor mobility are weapons against built-in caste prejudice , a lifeline to small businesses is an economic and a moral imperative .
As long as the recipients become the building blocks of universal social security , it will be $ 39 billion well spent .
Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services .
He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews .
He has also worked for the Straits Times , ET NOW @ @ @ @

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washingtonpost--2020-04-30--Analysis | France Tries Next Extraordinary Human Experiment

It ’ s this kind of fear that haunts France ’ s central planners today as they prepare to lift draconian stay-at-home measures designed to halt the ( far less deadly ) coronavirus .
The lockdown has reached its limit : Public opinion is now against it .
Isolation at home has saved more than 60,000 lives , but it has also cratered the economy and infantilized citizens by policing their movement , restricting the purchase of masks and nicotine patches , and banning daytime jogging in the city of Paris .
The worry for the state is how to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of infections .
Judging by the lockdown exit strategy unveiled this week , President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Edouard Philippe , both graduates of France ’ s elite school for civil servants , are opting for meticulous caution .
Starting May 11 , and over several months , businesses , schools and entertainment venues will gradually reopen , with bars and restaurants shut until at least June and sporting events forbidden until September .
Masks will have to be worn on public transport .
Yet the real technocratic twist is that there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , one for each of the country ’ s administrative departments .
Like a weather report , and based on criteria including the rate of infection and testing resources , each area will get a daily rating — green or red — that dictates its ability to lift restrictions .
The French seem to be going from one extraordinary human experiment to another .
Ending Europe ’ s visa-free travel area between countries was one thing , but now the nation state is being carved up ; Spain is also lifting lockdowns by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were initially a local affair .
Parisians , who ’ ve suffered a 74 % rise in deaths year-on-year since the start of the crisis , will wonder if they ’ re even in the same country as Bordeaux on the Atlantic coast , whose department has actually seen the number of deaths dip .
A red rating for a hard-hit area might mean shops or public spaces stay shut ; being deemed green would allow parks and some schools to reopen .
And the hardest part to stomach : Citizens living in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ travel to green ones .
Americans and Germans may be used to divides in their federal system , but for the French it ’ s a total revolution .
Obviously there ’ s no telling how a fragmented , petri-dish society created by central planning will actually behave .
When the lockdown was first introduced , more than 1 million people fled the Paris region for more pleasant pastures .
Will “ red ” residents now make an irresponsible break for a “ green ” zone ?
It ’ s possible , just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ activity in “ green ” areas and responsible following of rules in “ red ” ones may prove optimistic .
Fear of the virus may keep people home even in newly reopened areas , while frustration at longer lockdowns elsewhere may incite rule dodging .
What ’ s encouraging is that , unlike the current lockdown , more responsibility is being placed in the hands of people and their local elected representatives .
The omnipresent state has been both a curse and a blessing in this crisis , proving very adept at protecting @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at managing hospital resources , mask stockpiles or laboratory tests .
Now the government is promising to ramp up the availability of masks , tests and contact tracing — the motto is now “ protect , test , isolate ” — while letting local mayors have more of a say in how to manage post-lockdown society .
The French are being offered behavioral choices — such as whether to let their children attend school or whether to wear a mask outdoors — and not just the threat of a fine .
( Though @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trips of over 100 kilometers ( 62 miles ) . )
And as infantilizing as a color-coded France may be for those living in it , it also gives society a common goal to work toward — namely making the entire map green .
Trying to keep people ’ s minds on responsible social distancing when the infection curve is ebbing isn ’ t easy .
The virus ’ s urgency is fading , and health concerns are clearly no longer the sole be-all-and-end-all of policy ( the French government is reopening schools @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) .
What ’ s left is the carrot-and-stick approach : The more green on the map , the more freedoms are won back , and the less likely a second lockdown becomes .
And if infections do flare again somewhere , there ’ s now a system in place to ratchet restrictions up locally first .
France knows it can ’ t afford another national lockdown — the social and economic costs would be unbearable .
So it has effectively found 101 ways to extend the original one as far as it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whether human behavior can dash the best-laid plans of technocrats .


washingtonpost--2020-06-19--Can Independent Bookstores Survive Covid-19?

On March 13 , Sage-El ’ s local school district in Montclair , New Jersey , locked down .
She and her store , Watchung Booksellers , limped along the following week until March 21 , when the state ordered all non-essential retailers to close their doors indefinitely .
She never really closed , though , jumping on a surge in online orders from her website to essentially turn her operation into a small fulfillment warehouse .
But she hasn ’ t fully reopened either .
She recently began accepting visitors to her store by appointment , and handles sales @ @ @ @ @ @ @ New Jersey has begun to ease retail restrictions , Sage-El remains awash in uncertainty .
“ We never closed because I thought we ’ d never open again if I did , ” she says , ticking off everything she ’ s overcome since becoming a bookseller in 1996 , including the economic fallout from 9/11 , the 2008 financial crisis , overwhelming competition from Amazon.com and the advent of e-books .
“ I feel like I ’ ve spent 24 years waiting for the shoe to drop .
But in the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ like ‘ OK , as long as people want us we ’ ll be here for them and we can make it.
’ And then the coronavirus happened.
” Sage-El isn ’ t alone .
The pandemic has crushed independent booksellers across the country so ferociously , their futures are as precarious as they ’ ve ever been .
There were about 1,887 independent book-selling companies running 2,524 stores nationwide in 2019 , up from 1,401 booksellers running 1,651 stores a decade earlier , according to the American Booksellers Association .
It ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spurt won ’ t be reversed now , given how many booksellers say they ’ re struggling to remain afloat .
During the first few weeks of the corona-crisis alone , the Book Industry Charitable Foundation , a nonprofit that supports indies , received applications for emergency financial support from more than 670 booksellers .
Indies were fighting for their lives well before the coronavirus landed , of course .
Big chains like Crown Books , Borders and Barnes & Noble dealt a first blow as they expanded in the 1980s and 1990s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in 1995 , ravaged the chains and independents alike .
Today about two-thirds of all U.S. book sales occur online , almost entirely through Amazon .
In addition to the convenience and speed that made Amazon formidable when it launched , the website had additional tools at its disposal that indies lacked .
It could sell books at a loss to increase market share .
It formed sales partnerships with other websites , sharing its wealth in a way that encouraged huge sections of the internet to steer book buyers toward its digital @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and reader , the Kindle , that made old-fashioned books with paper pages appear anachronistic .
It also set up its own publishing arm .
All this left indies seemingly overmatched .
And yet , and yet .
Bookstores are cultural hubs in any community , central to the fabric of shared values and interests that make towns and cities vital .
They lend character to a place and give residents and book lovers a sense of belonging .
They often are as central to some people ’ s private lives as local @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Indies also continue to play a crucial role in the book-selling business .
While they don ’ t drive overall sales volume , they are pivotal in developing grassroots support for books that turn into bestsellers .
The “ Harry Potter ” series , for example , didn ’ t take off until the fourth installment was published ; prior to that , indies helped foster a cult following that turned the books into blockbusters .
Despite rumors of their demise in the Amazon era , indies have recently thrived .
When a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent years , small bookstores benefited .
Guess what else happened ?
People wound up continuing to favor printed books over e-books .
Sales of e-books actually fell about 37 % from 2014 to 2018 .
There also is a large contingent of readers who don ’ t want cookie-cutter approaches to finding books ; they often want choices tailored to the needs and interests of their communities .
They rely on people like Sage-El .
Sage-El moved to Montclair from New York City , where she had been working in educational publishing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ African-American , and when they began looking for books for children of color in 1994 , they couldn ’ t find catalogs for them — one of Sage-El ’ s most memorable clues about systemic racism in the book industry .
When she complained about this to a prominent catalog company , she was told that if she cared that much about it , she should start her own catalog business .
So she did .
Two years later , she bought Watchung Booksellers .
“ I was so naïve and I had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” she says , noting that she had two partners when she started .
“ I thought this would be so nice .
We would share everything , and each of us would work 20 hours a week .
It quickly turned into 120 hours a week.
” “ When people came in we would talk to them .
They came in not knowing what they wanted , so we would have a conversation and make a connection , ” she says , explaining how she kept moving forward .
“ It was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ was also about much more than buying a book.
” “ Readers who walk in here want to be informed and they want to be challenged .
I think they ’ ve realized , ‘ Oh , I ’ ve been skipping through things that matter , and I need to learn more.
’ That ’ s what ’ s beautiful about books .
It ’ s always a great privilege to meet readers ’ needs and interests , especially in this town , and we ’ ve done well at that.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ surprised to discover that local readers swarmed to her website to buy online from her directly .
Some of that was loyalty , and some of it was due to Amazon pulling away from book sales .
“ Amazon had a slowdown on non-essential items and I think they thought books were non-essential , ” she says .
“ That ’ s not who we are .
We ’ ve always thought books were essential.
” Yet even with decades of success , Sage-El occupies a low-margin business worn to the bone by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dropped 30-40 % in April and May and expects it to plunge 50 % in June .
Online orders have helped offset the drop , but don ’ t make up for what she ’ s lost in in-store sales and her events business .
“ People are asking themselves what they want to be when this is all over .
What do we value ?
This community has said they want a bookstore to be here .
And we ’ ve kept putting books in their hands , ” she says .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , you need to know something about yourself or the person you ’ re buying it for .
It ’ s an important , thoughtful , personal decision .
And it can ’ t happen online in the way it happens in a bookstore .
The magic of the bookstore is discovery .
”


washingtonpost--2020-06-19--Analysis | What to Know About Juneteenth

The holiday gets its name from June 19 , 1865 .
That ’ s the day the Union army arrived in Galveston , Texas , to announce that all African-American slaves in the state were free in accordance with President Abraham Lincoln ’ s Emancipation Proclamation .
The state was the last in the Confederacy to receive word that the Civil War was over and that slavery had been abolished , and the last where the federal Army established its authority .
As early as 1866 , freed African Americans in Texas held a celebration on the date to commemorate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ families emigrated from the southern U.S. after the Great Depression , observance spread throughout the country .
In 1968 , shortly after Martin Luther King Jr. ’ s assassination , his Poor People ’ s Campaign held a Juneteenth Solidarity Day , giving the holiday a new prominence in the civil rights movement .
In 1980 , the Texas legislature made it an official state holiday .
Currently , 46 states and the District of Columbia mark the occasion as a holiday or a day of observation .
But the holiday was still @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Black community that the television show “ Black-ish ” could build an episode around how few of the show ’ s White characters had heard of it .
In recent years , a number of Juneteenth commemorations were tied to themes raised by Black Lives Matter , a protest movement that was founded in response to police killings of African Americans .
Black Lives Matter protests erupted around the nation in recent weeks after George Floyd died at the hands of police officers in Minneapolis on May 25 .
He announced plans to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , on that day .
He hasn ’ t had an in-person rally since lockdowns were imposed to limit the coronavirus pandemic ’ s spread in March .
The move sparked an immediate reaction .
The choice of the date and the city riled both historians and African Americans for what they see as insensitivity to racial issues .
In 1921 , White rioters attacked a predominately Black district in the city , Greenwood , killing up to 100 Black residents and destroying hundreds of buildings .
It ’ s considered the worst @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Trump said in an interview with Fox News on Thursday that his campaign didn ’ t intentionally choose Juneteenth as the date for the rally .
Late Friday night , he tweeted that “ Many of my African American friends and supporters have reached out to suggest that we consider changing the date.
” He said that “ out of respect for this Holiday , ” the rally would be moved to the 20th .
Paris Dennard , senior communications adviser for Black media affairs at the Republican National Committee , had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ had discussed the Greenwood massacre with Trump at a White House meeting last week .
Trump told him he had recently read about the incident .
Dennard said that he raised Tulsa with the president as an example of economic destruction and how long it could take Black communities to recover from riots and looting .
The trend began when Jack Dorsey made Juneteenth a formal company holiday at Twitter Inc. and Square Inc. , both of which he leads .
Vox Media Inc. , Nike Inc. , the New York Times , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Spotify Technology SA and Quicken Loans and the National Football League all followed suit , while Facebook Inc. said it plans to cancel meetings that day for a “ day of learning ” about the experience of Black Americans .
MasterCard said it would give employees the day off and encouraged them to educate themselves about the history of racism in America or volunteer with a civil rights organization .
JPMorgan Chase & Co. will close its bank branches early , while Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. told staffers they can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ General Motors Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV are observing a moment of silence .
New York State and Virginia gave state workers the day off .


washingtonpost--2020-03-06--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Spreading Coronavirus

It has been described as “ insidious ” because many infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , unwittingly spreading it to others .
As of March 3 , the fatality rate was about 3.4 % based on globally reported cases , the World Health Organization said .
Such numbers are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak , however .
Some disease-modeling experts project as many as hundreds of thousands of people are actually infected , most of whom don ’ t even know they have it .
One study published Feb. 10 estimated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ all cases , including those with no or only mild symptoms , are counted .
A related coronavirus killed 9.5 % of patients in the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS , and another known as MERS-CoV has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded since 2012 .
In those outbreaks , however , the viruses didn ’ t transmit from one person to another as efficiently as this new one appears to do .
Certainly , they didn ’ t spread as widely as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recent history , an estimated 50 million people died in the 1918 influenza pandemic that had a case-fatality ratio of about 2 % but infected as much as a third of the world ’ s population .
Symptoms begin to appear on average five to six days after infection .
Infections appear to cause a mild illness lasting about two weeks in children , adolescents and younger adults in most cases , and potentially more severe disease lasting three to six weeks in older people .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In severe cases , studies suggest the virus invades cells in the lower respiratory tract , causing difficulty breathing and the inflammation and congestion associated with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
It appears to be the elderly and those with other serious health issues .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with underlying illnesses such as cardiovascular disease .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found most deaths occurred in patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ confirmed cases , 81 % were mild , 14 % were severe and 4.7 % critical .
The last pandemic , an outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 flu in 2009 , infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and may have killed as many as 575,000 people worldwide in the first year it circulated -- with about 80 % of them younger than 65 , according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention By coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that are emitted when an infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the WHO ’ s first comprehensive report on Covid-19 .
These droplets can be transferred directly to someone else in close proximity or via hands and surfaces .
How long it survives on surfaces is still not known , but preliminary studies suggest coronaviruses may remain infectious from a few hours to a few days .
Simple disinfectants kill it .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the virus can spread through feces or farther through the air in tiny particles known as aerosols .
People who are still incubating the virus and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health authorities are concerned about what ’ s known as community spread , where the virus begins circulating freely among people outside of known contacts with other patients .
Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people a person who is infected is likely to infect .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( pronounced “ r naught ” ) , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
A study of an outbreak aboard a cruise ship estimated that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early stages .
That would make it more infectious than seasonal flu , which has an r0 of about 1.3 and killed an estimated 61,000 people in the U.S. in the 2017-18 season .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them , responsible for diseases that range in severity from the common cold to MERS .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
The WHO says that new strains emerge periodically around the globe , and several known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t infected humans .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as zoonoses , comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a new human pathogen emerges because people typically lack immunity to it and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel coronaviruses -- those unseen in humans before -- represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , as SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
China ’ s government imposed a quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in the region that ’ s keeping some 60 million people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from the ground up in days , and the production of medical equipment was ramped up .
( Some makeshift centers in stadiums , hotels and office buildings have started to fold up as patients have recovered . )
The WHO declared a global health emergency , a designation that can help mobilize international responses .
The World Bank has allocated $ 12 billion in virus aid for developing economies .
Many countries are denying or restricting entry for non-citizens arriving from China and other especially affected areas .
With Covid-19 showing up @ @ @ @ @ @ @ switch their goal from stopping its spread to preparing for it amid shortages of testing kits , face masks and other equipment .
U.S. President Donald Trump appointed Vice President Mike Pence to lead the federal response as local governments stepped up readiness efforts .
Globally , governments are using a mix of cash handouts , tax breaks and transfers to counter the virus ’ s impact .
Early praise for China ’ s response has ebbed .
The country did not immediately release genetic information about the virus and has struggled to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ new cases .
In a nation where the internet is heavily censored , there was a rare outpouring of social media fury over the death from the virus of a Chinese doctor who had waved an early red flag about the outbreak but was silenced by police .
The top officials in Wuhan and Hubei were later removed from their posts .
But China ’ s strict quarantine likely bought the rest of the world two to three weeks to prepare for the virus and averted many infections , according to the WHO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and disruptions in supply chains have slowed economic activity , especially in China and among its many trading partners .
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that the Covid-19 crisis posed the “ greatest danger ” to the world economy since the financial crisis more than a decade ago .
Global stock markets have been volatile and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates in its first emergency move since the 2008 financial crisis .
Group of Seven finance chiefs pledged to use “ all appropriate policy tools ” to safeguard @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-03-06--Analysis | Saudi Arabia Should Follow Russia, Even If It Kills OPEC

It ’ s now been more than three years since the first supposedly six-month OPEC+ supply cut began .
Saudi Arabia , OPEC ’ s de facto leader , had previously tried flushing the oil market in hopes of squeezing out rival U.S. and Russian barrels .
When that didn ’ t work , it co-opted Russia into a plan to trade market share for higher prices .
The results have been — to put it kindly — ambiguous .
OPEC ’ s market share has slumped to its lowest level so far this century , and Saudi Arabia ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost a decade ago .
Russian production , meanwhile , has flattened rather than dropped .
That is positive in one sense , as that country ’ s oil majors would otherwise probably be raising output by several hundred thousand barrels a day each year .
However , U.S. producers , given succor by OPEC+ and the support lent to oil futures , have gamely jumped into the gap .
As of late Friday morning in New York , Brent crude oil was trading below $ 46 a barrel — close to where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ agreement was first struck in November 2016 .
In other words , the group has traded market share in return for … well , maybe not nothing , but not a whole lot of something either .
OPEC ’ s problem is that the ability to actually manage oil production rests in the hands of just a few members , chiefly Saudi Arabia and a couple of its neighbors on the Arabian peninsula .
As I wrote here , much of the group ’ s apparent restraint these past few years is really @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Deflating production costs elsewhere , as exemplified by ( but not confined to ) the shale boom , have reduced the economic rents available to OPEC ’ s under-diversified economies .
Meanwhile , even as the coronavirus crisis savages near-term oil demand , challenges to long-term demand are building .
Russia ’ s position inflicts more pain immediately but also comports more with reality .
The lack of flexibility in many OPEC economies — and , by extension , their oil production — makes their supply cuts a blunt tool in a more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shock like the current one is just the most extreme demonstration of this .
In a world where Russia and the U.S. now produce more oil than all of OPEC ’ s members outside of Saudi Arabia , the group ’ s ability to manage prices looks more questionable than ever .
Moreover , if they want to monetize more of their giant oil reserves as demand growth looks set to taper off , they must encourage demand for as long as possible with lower prices .
The other reason to raise production @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the shale producers .
When Saudi Arabia tried to flood the market last time , it ran into the problem of U.S. capital markets .
Just as the social costs of OPEC economies add to the breakeven oil price they need , American producers effectively enjoyed a discount on theirs , in the form of equity and bond investors willing to absorb the losses generated by sub-economic projects .
All that has changed .
The energy high-yield bond market now carries a spread of about 1,000 basis points , which is where @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two weeks ago .
And even mighty Exxon Mobil Corp. , sticking doggedly with its giant spending budget , has lost almost $ 100 billion in market cap so far this year and now yields more than 7 % .
A year or so of lower oil prices would give a big nudge to the rationalization America ’ s exploration and production sector has needed for a while , taking U.S. barrels out of the market — and also , importantly , many of the most irrational producers .
In doing so , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ curve and might also , once the sheer avoidance phase of the coronavirus emergency has passed , spur demand .
Rather than this week ’ s disagreement leading to a formal break , Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC “ haves ” should take Moscow ’ s cue and recognize they can not cut their way out of a pandemic-inspired crash .
Instead , they should be looking to what comes after , when they will still want to influence oil prices and will need Russia ’ s help to do so .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ as an effective standalone organization , well , the creation of OPEC+ signaled that very same thing anyway .


washingtonpost--2020-03-05--Analysis | Want to Know If Covid-19 Was There Before You?

Central to South Korea ’ s approach has been the extensive collection and effective use of data as a public good – in this case , disease surveillance and testing .
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ’ s daily reporting details patients affected and being tested , connections between them and what provinces they ’ re in .
It includes fatality rates by age and gender .
Health authorities posted a detailed log of patients ’ whereabouts prior to confirmation of infection .
Their names weren ’ t given , but they were numbered .
People were @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collected and publicized .
They didn ’ t have a choice .
A Wall Street Journal report chronicled this : “ Patient No .
12 had booked seats E13 and E14 for a 5:30 p.m. showing of the South Korean film , “ The Man Standing Next.
” Before grabbing a 12:40 p.m. train , patient No .
17 dined at a soft-tofu restaurant in Seoul .
Patient No .
21 drove her car to attend a weekday evening church service.
” From a visit to a funeral home to a restaurant and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data now allows tracing infected individuals .
Color-coded by timing , it allows people to avoid those places and enables so-called social distancing , or staying away from large groups and crowds .
It ’ s a more focused way to confront the epidemic than living in a generalized state of paranoia .
And far more targeted than locking down entire cities .
App developers are using the public data to warn users if an infected person is within 100 meters .
Because the coronavirus has been asymptomatic in some cases , tracing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tech giants have mined data this way in marketing for at least a decade .
Scientists have analyzed data from Twitter Inc. and Alphabet Inc. ’ s Google Trends to understand human mobility .
Cellphone data has been used to track cholera outbreaks and the role of crowds .
South Korea is pulling all these threads together .
It ’ s also collecting data from pharmacies and doctors on how medication is being dispensed , and plans to use a similar system to ensure people aren ’ t hoarding masks .
The more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can do with it .
South Korea ’ s growing pile of data has enabled authorities to quickly test for the disease and keep pace with its rapid spread .
Knowing that the cases are concentrated in Daegu has helped ramp up testing there .
That ’ s a big step forward .
In previous outbreaks , delays in collecting and tracking led to slow response times .
This capacity hasn ’ t been conjured from nothing .
South Korea has spent years investing in technology and , more recently , biotechnology .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4.5 % of gross domestic product , topping the list of countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development , which average around 2.37 % .
Given the out-sized role of companies like Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. in the country ’ s life , South Koreans are highly tech-enabled , with nine out of 10 people on the internet and 95 % using smartphones.To be sure , disease surveillance isn ’ t new .
Typically , healthcare professionals need to inform public health officials for selected diseases .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with no validation from lab tests .
There are other pitfalls , especially data collection based on human behavior and media coverage .
For instance , Google and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention teamed up for web data on searches around the flu .
In 2013 , Google ’ s estimates for Christmas-time flu peak were almost double the CDC ’ s .
Meanwhile , Google underestimated swine flu .
Putting data to work effectively isn ’ t an easy task .
In China , a highly connected and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mass-scale surveillance abound .
Beijing has resorted to data to track citizens in the ongoing quarantines across the country .
The U.S. doesn ’ t seem to have the data , or at least isn ’ t marshaling it effectively .
Much of what it collects is in the hands of Big Tech .
Testing and reporting for the coronavirus is proving difficult ( and almost non-existent in places ) .
In Europe , even if governments wanted to fully utilize all available information , new privacy laws would get in the way @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to privacy ; there are laws to protect data about children and personal information .
But having a watchful eye in the name of public health has helped in this time of crisis .
Without using data as ammunition , it isn ’ t clear how to effectively contain the spread of this disease without locking down large parts of a country.So , wouldn ’ t you rather know if someone with coronavirus had been sitting where you ’ re now sipping coffee ?


washingtonpost--2020-03-06--Analysis | Your Paracetamol Supply Depends A Lot On China

You would expect the coronavirus outbreak to have focused the minds of Europe ’ s politicians and drugmakers on finding a vaccine .
But it ’ s the continent ’ s fragile dependence on Asia for raw generic drug ingredients like paracetamol that ’ s proving a more immediate headache.European Union health ministers are due to discuss the security of medical supplies on Friday , after warnings that the bloc faces potentially significant shortages of crucial components imported from China as the country attempts to get back to work after virus-related shutdowns .
France has openly called for more manufacturing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as it scrambles to guarantee the supply of masks and control the price of hand-gel to try to reassure the public.It may seem pretty insensitive to point the finger at China and politicize medical-supply issues , given the country ’ s own tally of infections and deaths from the Covid-19 disease .
Yet the scale of pharmaceutical dependence on Asia clearly deserves more attention than , say , textiles .
The data is patchy but France ’ s National Pharmaceutical Academy estimates the EU imports 80 % of its “ active pharmaceutical ingredients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The U.K. medicines regulator estimates Chinese manufacturers make around 40 % of all APIs used worldwide.What makes Covid-19 so dangerous for imports is that it combines Chinese factory shutdowns with domestic political pressure to act aggressively .
India , itself very reliant on China for pharmaceutical ingredients , spooked the world this week by announcing curbs on exports of common drugs including paracetamol .
French laboratories have warned of possible medicine shortages later this year , according to Les Echos .
Over in the U.S. , which has similar supply issues when @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Drug Administration has said one drug is in short supply because of the coronavirus outbreak without naming it.Short-term ideas such as stockpiling or resource sharing will probably be examined today in Brussels .
But supply risks have been known for a long time and will require deeper fixes , according to Philippe Luscan , an executive who oversees French drugmaker Sanofi ’ s industrial footprint .
In an interview in his Paris office — where handshakes are now discouraged , obviously — he outlines Sanofi ’ s own push to get pharmaceutical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to spin off six European factories ( in the U.K. , France , Germany , Italy and Hungary ) into a new listed entity by 2022 , representing 1 billion euros ( $ 1.1 billion ) of revenue .
That entity will strike deals with firms that want to expand EU production .
The Covid-19 crisis serves as one “ salutary ” incentive to do so , says Luscan .
There are others , he adds : Quality issues that have forced products off the shelves , rising labor costs in China , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ temporarily shuttered factories.This alone is probably unlikely to reverse the forces of globalization .
If so many generic ingredients are manufactured in Asia , it ’ s because the plunging price of off-patent drugs using them and the rising cost of building lucrative new drug pipelines have pushed drugmakers to seek out cheap bases abroad .
The head of Swiss company Novartis AG ’ s generics business , Richard Saynor , said last month that some antibiotics were being sold in Europe for “ less than the price of chewing gum.
” Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ an elegant way to free up capital from a low-margin business.But Luscan ’ s initiative should also prod policy makers into doing their part to boost production .
Viewing medicines as a strategic asset rather than a cheap commodity — one of the recommendations of Rosemary Gibson ’ s 2018 book “ China Rx ” — would be a good start , as would thinking up financial incentives to encourage local production .
EU initiatives designed to boost new medical research are a good thing , but the security of generics shouldn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bad the current crisis could get .
Bloomberg Intelligence pharma analyst Sam Fazeli warns that if Chinese factory production bounces back while the virus spreads in the EU , it ’ s possible that European manufacturing will become a bigger source of disruption .
Officials in Brussels should bear that in mind when mapping out emergency scenarios .


washingtonpost--2020-03-06--Analysis | Mask or No Mask? What the Virus Experts Have to Say

In its Covid-19 guidance , the World Health Organization says healthy people need to wear masks only when taking care of those who are sick or suspected of infection .
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention “ does not recommend ” people who are well wear them , except in that circumstance .
U.S .
Surgeon General Jerome Adams went further , tweeting , “ Seriously people - STOP BUYING MASKS !
” Health-care providers who can ’ t get masks are at risk , he said , and that in turn raises the overall risk to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus to the uninfected and once sick can ’ t look after patients .
The Journal of the American Medical Association made the same point in an article aimed at the public .
It added that there ’ s no evidence masks protect ordinary people going about their daily business .
A few small studies have suggested that widespread use of face masks by the public may have reduced transmission in outbreaks of two other respiratory diseases , influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS .
However , the evidence is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ masks in short supply , the argument is that everyone is better off if they are reserved for those who actually require them and who can ’ t avoid exposure to people who are infected or might be .
If they are coughing or sneezing .
A cough is a common symptom of infection with the Covid-19 virus , and the virus spreads in respiratory droplets -- spatters of liquid forcefully expelled with an infected person ’ s cough or sneeze .
These droplets are usually heavy enough to fall immediately to the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ occur if the droplets reach the mouth , nose or possibly the eye of someone nearby , either directly or from an unwashed hand that ’ s touched a contaminated object or surface .
When a patient diagnosed with Covid-19 is recovering at home , they and their caregivers are advised to wear masks when they are in the same room .
Medical protocols prescribe that patients suspected of infection with the Covid-19 virus be isolated and given a mask to wear .
This will usually be the type worn by surgeons -- @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that ’ s rectangular when flat .
This is to protect other people by trapping virus-containing respiratory droplets .
Health-care providers who deal with such patients or with confirmed cases are directed to wear a more sophisticated mask called a respirator .
These are designed to protect the user .
They come in different sizes so they can be fit to the wearer ’ s face to provide a tight seal .
That forces the user to pull air through the device ’ s filter rather than through gaps on the sides .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ only respiratory droplets but also smaller aerosolized particles that can carry infectious agents and float for a time through the air .
Airborne transmission has not been reported for Covid-19 , but there is a risk that certain medical procedures , such as tracheotomy and airway suction , can generate aerosols .
Respirators are uncomfortable to wear for a long period of time .
They generate heat and exert pressure on the face , and some people find they make it difficult to breathe , which can make them unsuitable for those with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that people who aren ’ t trained in how to use them tend to touch their faces a lot , which could increase their chances of becoming infected with the coronavirus .
The WHO emphasizes that if you ’ re going to use a mask , it ’ s vital to do so correctly : put them on with clean hands , remove them from behind without touching the front and washing hands afterward , never re-use single-use masks , dispose of them properly .


washingtonpost--2020-04-22--Did the Democrats Get Rolled on the New Rescue Plan?

What happened ?
One theory is that Democratic leaders botched the negotiations .
Perhaps House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could have gotten a House bill passed with all the relief efforts the Democrats believed were essential and then dared Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Republican senators to ignore it .
Or they could just have refused a deal until Republicans added more , just as they did when McConnell tried to jam the smaller bill through the Senate last week only to have Democrats block it .
Theory two to explain the Democrats ’ support for the current package is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ something they wanted .
And while Republicans marginally favor the money for the Paycheck Protection Program , they would have been just as happy overall to make an issue of the Democrats ’ objections to the smaller bill than to actually have a bill .
That ’ s how I read McConnell ’ s decision to force Democrats to oppose it last week .
The Pelosi-bashing liberals believe that Democrats have all the leverage because Republicans , with President Donald Trump the incumbent on the ballot this fall , desperately need the economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goes , are basically doing Republicans a political favor by going along , and they should demand something in return .
For some Republicans , nothing is wrong with the economy that opening things back up — as some governors like Georgia ’ s Brian Kemp are moving to do as soon as this week — won ’ t solve .
Indeed , some voices in the Republican-aligned media are still calling the social-distancing lockdowns nothing but a Democratic plot to ruin the economy and defeat Trump in November .
And many Republicans @ @ @ @ @ @ @ economic growth .
Sure , a lot of small-business people are solid Republicans , so GOP politicians don ’ t mind funneling some money their way , but it ’ s not clear that they see the federal help as necessary for a recovery per se .
After all , if Republicans did think that way , they would be desperate to send money to state and local governments — money that not only could keep economically important services intact , but also prevent large-scale layoffs of government workers and contractors .
Even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for private business are more deserving of relief than those who work for the public sector , they should be able to see that consumer dollars spent on goods and services don ’ t just come from private-sector workers .
A population of unemployed government employees is an economic disaster when they stop buying stuff .
But as we know , Republicans fought hard against including money for state and local governments in the bill .
Remember that Trump is still mainly pushing a payroll tax cut ( and the return of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of emergency relief , even though no one thinks that makes any sense .
Remember , too , that Republican leaders believed that the best course of action after the $ 2 trillion relief bill passed was to wait to see how it worked , rather than to get to work on the next one .
None of that sounds like a party eager to spend money to revive the economy in order to save the presidency .
If it ’ s true that Republicans were perfectly willing to walk away with nothing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ they don ’ t believe the economy and Trump ’ s re-election hinge on emergency spending , then Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer had a lot less leverage than some liberals believe .
Yes , from the Democrats ’ perspective that would also mean the Republicans were being irrational .
But it doesn ’ t mean that this wasn ’ t the best Democrats could do given what Republicans actually wanted .


washingtonpost--2020-04-22--Analysis | How ‘Silent Spreaders’ Make Coronavirus Hard to Beat

Peak concentration of the coronavirus in the upper airway seems to occur around the time an infected person develops symptoms .
That ’ s usually when a person is most contagious -- coughing , sneezing or otherwise shedding virus .
With this virus , however , a carrier is also capable of transmitting it even before getting the tell-tale signs of infection , as some early studies from China , Germany and Singapore indicated .
And some people with the virus never feel ill , yet have been implicated in its spread .
The extent to which these “ silent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ spreaders ” isn ’ t clear .
It ’ s difficult to pinpoint the source of an individual infection , especially as the virus becomes entrenched in communities .
Researchers at the University of Oxford estimated in March that a third to a half of transmissions occur from pre-symptomatic people .
The number is “ significant , ” U.K. doctors wrote in a letter to the Lancet medical journal published April 16 .
A lack of resources for testing in many places , at least in the initial weeks of the pandemic , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ displaying classical symptoms of Covid-19 , as the disease is called .
When health authorities have widened their testing , they typically find many more positive results than they had assumed .
A study of cases aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship , which docked in Japan , found that 328 of the 634 , or 52 % , of people who tested positive had no obvious symptoms at the time of testing .
A retrospective analysis found that 10 of 43 of those asymptomatic cases did develop symptoms over a 15-day period @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Iceland , on board a U.S. aircraft carrier and among obstetric patients in New York City , found anywhere from 43 % to 88 % of people testing positive were asymptomatic at the time .
No .
Data from China indicate that at least a fifth of patients who have no signs of Covid-19 at the time of testing positive are incubating the disease and do develop symptoms days later .
Some people with the coronavirus develop atypical symptoms -- ones that don ’ t meet the definitions health authorities use to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ diarrhea and the abrupt loss of smell and taste .
That ’ s a big change from back in February when a joint World Health Organization-China mission concluded that asymptomatic infection “ appears to be relatively rare.
” The WHO said in April that the risk of catching Covid-19 from someone with no symptoms at all is “ very low , ” though it ’ s possible it could be caught from the mild cough of someone who doesn ’ t feel ill .
Some researchers have suggested that unrecognized carriers may be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ extremely quickly relative to others , such as the one responsible for severe acute respiratory syndrome , or SARS , almost 20 years ago .
Current containment measures are predicated on early detection and isolation , but patients with mild , non-specific , or no symptoms are more difficult to identify .
Such cases can also increase the risk to health-care workers if a patient undergoes certain high-risk medical or surgical procedures , such as a colonoscopy .
Fourteen hospital staff were infected after a patient in China tested positive days after surgery @ @ @ @ @ @ @ necessary infection-control precautions .
Firstly , more community testing , especially of people known to have been in contact with a confirmed case .
Where tests aren ’ t widely available , X-rays may help .
Italian researchers found chest images can be used to identify probable cases among people displaying mild or no symptoms .
Secondly , some health officials recommend wearing face masks or cloth barriers covering the nose and mouth to minimize both the projection of virus-carrying respiratory secretions from an infected person and the risk of a non-infected person @ @ @ @ @ @ @ social distancing and avoid congregating in large groups .


washingtonpost--2020-04-22--House Set to Pass New Stimulus With Plans to Dole Out More

At the same briefing , Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin declined to put a price tag on the next package , but Cuomo and other governors have called on the federal government to provide at least $ 500 billion into state aid alone .
The $ 484 billion legislation moving through Congress this week comes on top of the $ 2 trillion package enacted last month and follows tens of billions of dollars in earlier measures passed in response to the pandemic .
While the dollar figure so far is historic , so is the scale of the downturn , with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ domestic product in the second quarter .
Capital Economics forecasts an unprecedented 40 % annualized drop in that period .
The unemployment rate is likely around 17 % already -- the highest since the Depression era of the 1930s -- based on the roughly 22 million jobless claims filed during the coronavirus epidemic so far that wiped out a decade of labor market gains .
“ More is still needed .
Almost definitely , this is not going to be a 1 , 2 , 3 bill thing , just as this pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ couple of months thing , ” said Troy Ludtka , an economist at Natixis .
Lawmakers and the administration need to “ just keep throwing money at the problem , ” he said .
While putting more stimulus into the economy has bipartisan support and the backing of Trump , the spending is sending the U.S. further into debt .
This year ’ s deficit is on track to hit almost $ 4 trillion , about 18 % of the total economy .
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget forecasts that the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ levels not seen since the country emerged from World War II .
More money is needed “ to help our heroes , our health care workers , our firefighters , our first responders , EMS , our folks who are doing all the wonderful work to save lives as they risk their lives , ” Pelosi said .
“ Now they may lose their jobs.
” Pelosi emphasized that the latest bill sets aside billions for smaller businesses , many of which didn ’ t receive money in the program ’ s first @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ very sad thing ” that some larger companies with annual revenues in the hundreds of millions of dollars instead received the federal aid .
The Senate approved the latest measure in an almost empty chamber , with almost every senator back in their home states after signaling to party leaders they had no objection to passing the legislation .
The House plans to return to Washington Thursday for a formal vote .
The latest package would provide $ 320 billion to allow the PPP to take new applicants for the program , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that keep employees on the payroll for eight weeks .
It sets aside $ 30 billion of the PPP loan funds for banks and credit unions with $ 10 billion to $ 50 billion in assets and another $ 30 billion for even smaller institutions .
Democrats pushed for that , arguing such institutions could better serve “ under-banked ” small business like those owned by newer businesses or those owned by women and minorities .
The measure includes $ 60 billion in loans and grants for a separate Economic Injury Disaster Loan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eligible for the loans .
Also , there is $ 75 billion for hospitals , with a significant portion aimed at those in rural areas and $ 25 billion for virus testing .
The testing funds include $ 18 billion for states , localities , territories , and tribes to conduct Covid-19 tests , $ 1 billion for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and $ 1.8 billion for the National Institutes of Health .
As much as $ 1 billion would cover costs of testing for the uninsured .
McConnell and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not coming until after the small business aid program ran out of its original allocation of money.
“ It ’ s unfortunate that it took our Democratic colleagues 12 days to agree to a deal that contains essentially nothing that Republicans ever opposed , ” McConnell said .
“ The American people can not be political leverage.
” McConnell ’ s original proposal to replenish the Paycheck Protection Program didn ’ t include any of the other provisions that were ultimately included in the legislation , including aid for hospitals and money to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ also sought and won measures aimed at ensuring that businesses without relationships with major banks can get access to Small Business Administration assistance .


washingtonpost--2020-04-22--Analysis | What’s Next in Hong Kong’s Protests After the Coronavirus Lull?

Yes , but officially it ’ s a “ special administrative region.
” The city of 7.5 million people was an outpost of the British Empire for 156 years , during which time it developed into a global business hub .
In a 1984 joint declaration , the British agreed to give it back in 1997 and China promised to allow a “ high degree of autonomy ” for 50 years -- until 2047 -- including guarantees of free speech and a free press , capitalist markets and English common law under a “ one country , two systems ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in February 2019 , was suspended in June but Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam waited another two months to formally withdraw it .
During that time , the list of grievances grew along with calls for Lam ’ s resignation .
Many protesters chant the motto : “ Five demands , not one less !
” Those are : The last major protest was Jan. 1 , when about 400 people were arrested , pushing the total above 7,000 .
Things quieted down ahead of the Lunar New Year , and then @ @ @ @ @ @ @ led to most people hunkering down at home .
Since then there have been a handful of small-scale protests , but nothing on the scale of last year ’ s marches or melees .
Not exactly .
More than a dozen prominent pro-democracy figures were arrested April 18 on what police said was suspicion of organizing and participating in unauthorized assemblies in 2019 .
Among them were barrister Martin Lee , a former lawmaker who helped draft the city ’ s Basic Law before the handover and founded the main opposition Democratic Party @ @ @ @ @ @ @ whose outlets are sympathetic to the protesters .
Some opposition figures fear such moves could spur more radical protesters to renewed violence , which China then could use to justify canceling the Legislative Council election or other crackdowns .
After pro-democracy candidates swept to victory in district council elections in November , Xi ousted China ’ s liaison in the city and replaced him with Luo Huining , a Communist Party stalwart with a reputation as an enforcer .
Luo has called the pro-democracy movement a threat to national security .
Xi also @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crackdown on churches when he was the Communist Party chief of China ’ s Zhejiang province , as director of the Hong Kong & Macau Affairs Office .
The two agencies have blasted the opposition over months of delay tactics in a legislative committee , suggesting lawmakers could be violating their oath of office -- a potential precursor to disqualification .
More broadly , they ’ ve alarmed many -- including the city ’ s bar association -- by arguing they have a right to supervise and express views on local politics , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ interference from any department of the central government .
Xi has consistently backed Lam , while bemoaning “ radical violent crimes ” that “ have seriously trampled on the rule of law and social order , seriously undermined Hong Kong ’ s prosperity and stability , and seriously challenged ” the one country , two systems principle .
Chinese officials and media have called protesters terrorists and compared them to Islamic State .
They also have made charges of foreign interference , describing the U.S. as a “ black hand ” behind the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has dismissed as “ ridiculous.
” “ Violence is destroying Hong Kong , ” Lam said last year when she invoked an emergency law to ban face masks -- while insisting there was no state of emergency .
( The Court of Appeal in April declared the ban valid . )
She has accepted blame for the unrest , but rejected calls to resign .
Lam also has ruled out a blanket amnesty -- “ you have to take the consequences after breaking the law ” -- and says complaints about police conduct @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( United Nations reports have questioned its investigative powers and independence , and a panel of international advisers withdrew in December , citing similar concerns ) .
In an apparent allusion to China ’ s control , Lam has said “ different constraints and circumstances ” prevented her from addressing “ all the grievances of people in society.
” That depends on China .
Troops from its People ’ s Liberation Army have been in the city since the 1997 handover , but have played a minimal role .
For some people , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mirroring the deadly one three decades ago on mostly student protesters in Tiananmen Square .
Another worry concerns a withdrawal by the U.S. of the special status under which it agreed to treat Hong Kong as distinct from China for trade and economic matters .
To the dismay of China ’ s leaders , President Donald Trump signed a bill into law expressing U.S. support for the protesters .
The U.S. condemned the April arrests and politicians including Senator Marco Rubio have continued to push for a harder line on China .
Yes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it even worse .
The economy was already under pressure from the U.S.-China trade war , and the government is forecasting the first annual recession in a decade .
Tourists are staying away in droves .
Canceled events include a major airline conference , the WTA Hong Kong Tennis Open , music festivals , fireworks , parades , a motor race and a one-month run of “ Matilda The Musical.
” The epidemic has led to more cancellations , including the annual Art Basel Hong Kong show .
In April Fitch Ratings downgraded @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , foreign currency debt in part because the city ’ s “ deep-rooted socio-political cleavages remain unresolved.
” Yes , but less so lately .
In 2003 demonstrations blocked a proposed national security law and contributed to the resignation of then-Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa .
Nine years later , high school students and parents ’ and teachers ’ groups thwarted the Hong Kong government ’ s attempt to introduce a course lauding the Communist Party and criticizing democracy .
But the pro-democracy movement fractured after the government successfully faced down student-led demonstrators who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2014 to demand more democracy .
Since then , China has barred some activists from seeking elected office , prosecuted protest leaders and banned a pro-independence political party .
In 2020 the new chief liaison called for the national security law to be passed urgently .


washingtonpost--2020-04-22--Blame Game’s Back as Trump Eyes Campaign Pivot

Trump ’ s signature 2016 campaign promise was to build wall at the southern U.S. border — and have Mexico pay for it .
That hasn ’ t happened .
But his efforts won him loyal bands of supporters , and now he ’ s pursuing a 60-day ban on new green cards .
The move positions Trump to use immigrants as a target for U.S. job losses and sends a signal to his base , which has been involved in staging demonstrations over the government-ordered lockdowns in several Democratic-led states .
Oil market bloodbath | The “ American Energy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is over , as the collapse in world oil prices brings a brutal end to the shale revolution .
With global demand crushed by coronavirus lockdowns , concerns that the unwanted crude is going to overwhelm storage capacity have triggered a selling frenzy .
That ’ s left operators in the U.S. switching off wells and abandoning fracking .
Misdirected money ?
| No one wants to take the blame for the loophole that allowed name-brand restaurant chains like Shake Shack to get huge sums of U.S. pandemic-relief money meant for small businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Dennis and Naomi Nix report , lobbyists , lawmakers and agency officials are all denying responsibility .
• We take a closer look at the $ 7.2 billion in contracts the federal government has awarded so far — including one that would pay a biotech firm more than its reported revenue for the last three years combined .
Pushed around | European governments are usually more reluctant to take swipes at China than their American counterparts .
The wall of criticism from Berlin , Paris , London and Brussels over Beijing ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a change in attitude in Europe .
As Alan Crawford and Peter Martin report , the anger is spurring European attempts to reduce its dependence on China .
Facing meltdown | Russia ’ s small business sector may shrink by as much as half amid the havoc wreaked by the coronavirus shutdown and plunging oil prices .
With millions of jobs at risk , President Vladimir Putin is under pressure after promising a big increase in government support last week .
Business groups say the measures fall short , with most aid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ Putin is losing the entrepreneurial class , ” said one analyst .
Tense summit | European Union leaders are heading to a key virtual summit tomorrow without any concrete proposals from the bloc ’ s institutions on how to finance a controversial economic recovery fund , raising the chances of yet another inconclusive showdown , Nikos Chrysoloras writes .
The call comes amid deep divisions between member states on how to share the burden of the spending needed to salvage their damaged economies .
Tell us how we ’ re doing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ balancepower @ bloomberg.net.And finally ... For most of Europe , the easing of lockdowns will bring relief and a sense that the worst is over .
For the social workers tracking domestic abuse , it ’ s likely to uncover more terrible news , with many women trapped with violent partners , unable to leave home to seek help .
The death toll is shocking .
In the first three weeks of the U.K. ’ s lockdown , there were at least 16 domestic-abuse homicides — that ’ s more than double the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s been for 11 years , during the aftermath of the financial crisis .


washingtonpost--2020-03-27--Trump Set Easter Target After Kushner Meeting, Seeing Empty Pews

“ We ’ re going to listen to the very best health experts in the world , we ’ re going to examine that data very carefully , and we ’ ll be presenting , this weekend , the president a range of recommendations and additional guidance for going forward , ” Vice President Mike Pence said Thursday .
“ The president has made it clear that , in his words , he wants to open the country up.
” “ All but maybe one or two of the 12 or so people on the call were saying we ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go to the country to have some kind of date certain to have the economy up and running again because the devastation is too severe , ” Moore said in an interview .
But other areas , like Midwestern towns where few cases had been observed , might be able to return to normal operations , because public health officials could isolate and trace individuals with the virus .
The system is based in part on the one used in sub-Saharan Africa to track and contain HIV .
The president said he made @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a beautiful time ” that “ happened to arrive ” within the timeline he had already been discussing .
Trump said his team had been considering an earlier date but he liked the Easter symbolism .


washingtonpost--2020-03-29--Analysis | Black Death Makes Us Think About Interest Rates

The coronavirus pathogen isn ’ t as deadly as bubonic plague , and our toolkit for dealing with pandemics is far better stacked than when the pestilence reached the harbor of Messina on the northeastern coast of Sicily in late 1347 .
But while the dislocation caused by the respiratory disease has had a catastrophic impact on commodity and asset prices , a recovery may not close the chapter .
The coronavirus , too , could leave a durable imprint .
Economic historians quibble over the exact consequences of the Black Death , though they agree that the sudden depopulation @ @ @ @ @ @ @ productivity shot up because previous generations were eking out little extra output from finite land .
Now they were gone ; the Malthusian trap , in which growth was constrained by limited food supply , had sprung open .
Average annual global inflation between 1360 and 1460 slowed to just 0.65 % compared with 1.58 % between 1311 and 1359 , according to historian Paul Schmelzing ’ s study analyzing eight centuries of interest rates , published by the Bank of England in January .
Nominal wages rose in line with productivity and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Dis-inflation boosted real wages .
The change in behavior was more stark .
“ The Black Death created not just the means for wider parts of the population for excessive consumption – but the traumatizing experience of sudden decimation in the earthly life also triggered the impetus to enjoy it to the fullest , while still able to , ” Schmelzing notes .
Products that hadn ’ t been for mass consumption earlier — such as linen underwear and glass panes in windows — became more widely available as cheap capital rushed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , according to “ Freedom and Growth , ” historian Stephan Epstein ’ s review of states and markets in Europe between 1300 and 1750 .
Sumptuary laws that , among other things , sought to limit the height of Venetian women ’ s platform shoes were the state ’ s way to rein in conspicuous consumption ; eventually the mad spending ended and savings went to bond markets .
A republican ethos was born .
An outbreak in a pre-capitalistic society has no exact parallels with today , though it does highlight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ secular stagnation ” theory has blamed a hollowing out of aggregate demand over decades for the anemic recovery from the 2008 crisis .
The lackluster share of wages in output may be exerting relentless downward pressure on interest rates .
By laying bare the fault lines of production that rely on people to come together on buses , trains , planes and in offices and factories , the virus could hasten the age of the robot and the algorithm .
Since automatons need no pay , the demand deficiency could worsen .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ effect if new norms of social distancing help working families chip away at education and commuting costs as more instruction and work go permanently online .
After the demise of trade unions and the rise of cheap labor in China and India , we ’ ve grown accustomed to thinking of wage costs as a bargain in which capitalists perennially hold the upper hand .
But what if the measures taken by nation states to fight the virus with wage support , cash grants and student loan relief , stay on after the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of power again ?
Tilting the balance is what the English kings attempted by issuing ordinances , repeatedly for nearly a century , to fix summer wages for masons and carpenters to their low , pre-Plague levels .
This time , the pendulum may swing the other way .
As Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist David Autor has pointed out , codification of repetitive work ( think , bank tellers ) has swelled the ranks of labor in elder-care and other hard-to-automate , non-routine tasks , preventing pay increases despite strong demand in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on manual occupations may spur wages for those who provide the human touch .
It ’ s impossible to predict if the virus will inject a welcome impatience into spending out of pay checks that are augmented by state support , or whether the global economy will get mired in deeper stagnation .
A disease that ’ s especially harsh on older people could alter global demographics , with as-yet-unpredictable consequences for pension savings and asset demand .
The borrowing costs for large monarchies fell to 8 % to 10 % by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 30 % before the Black Death , according to Epstein .
Florence , Venice and Genoa as well as cities in Germany and Holland saw rates slump to 4 % from 15 % .
Surprisingly , the drops coincided with large increases in sovereign debt to boost military preparedness .
We , too , are faced with a ballooning of sovereign debt to wage a war on the pandemic .
Developed as well as emerging economies may have no option except to provide a universal basic income in addition to boosting hospital capacity @ @ @ @ @ @ @ systems and bankrupt industries .
Even if 1 % of infections prove to have been fatal by the time the coronavirus is contained , the disease would likely cast a lasting shadow on behavior , preferences , prices… and yes , interest rates .


washingtonpost--2020-06-17--Analysis | As Work Has Moved Home, So Has Harassment

Suzanne McKie , a London-based employment lawyer , whose clients work predominantly in finance , concurs .
She told me that she has heard of more occurrences of harassment than before lockdown .
This intimidation has not been physical , but it has moved to WhatsApp and text messages on personal phones , which are just as , if not more , difficult for employers to monitor .
McKie says she is also seeing a distinct uptick in complaints of gender harassment and racial intimidation .
For example , her clients have reported being excluded from meetings and bullied over @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been harder to do in an office with bystanders present .
Abruptly leaving a meeting room , for example , is not as easy as hanging up a video call .
Also specific to the coronavirus crisis , McKie says , managers have used furlough as a form of bullying minorities , either by forcing them to take it or by denying the option when it ’ s been requested .
( In the latter case , the hope is this will lead the employee to resign . )
According to another London-based @ @ @ @ @ @ @ predominantly in finance , remote working during the pandemic has given rise to harassment in two key ways .
First , virtual communication provides a degree of anonymity that can lead people to act in ways they would not do so in person — similar to how the internet and social media produced cyberbullying , which then became an issue in schools .
Second , stressful conditions from the pandemic have led some working relationships to break down .
Inappropriate comments that denigrate an individual , be it over the phone , by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ proliferating , the lawyer told me .
If history is any guide , economic vulnerability can breed harassment .
In the U.S. , workplace harassment charges spiked in the Great Recession to a two-decade record , says Alexandra Kalev , an associate professor in sociology and anthropology at Tel Aviv University .
Using data from the U.S .
Equal Employment Opportunity Commission , Kalev calculated that the rate of harassment charges in 2008 shot up to 33 per 1,000 employees , a jump that was four times higher than the rate of increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in line with insecurity , Kalev explains .
And right now we are all more vulnerable .
Some jobs that have been lost may never return .
Those fortunate enough to stay employed are still concerned about their future financial wellbeing .
And we are worrying about our physical survival and that of our loved ones , as Covid-19 infection rates continue to ebb and flow .
Add in the stress of coping with closed schools and remote working , and it ’ s easy to see how many people may be at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just as many are at their most strained emotionally , the boundaries between work and private life have blurred , which can facilitate harassment .
Take the explosion of video calls and meetings .
Colleagues , as well as customers and other contacts , are now regularly brought into the intimacy of our homes .
Working out of our kitchens and living rooms can lead people to let their guard down and be more informal or in some cases inappropriate .
A comment about a nice bookcase in the background can all too @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a person ’ s appearance or by an improper joke — an uncomfortable situation I have experienced myself .
McKie says that some firms have postponed investigations into harassment cases due to the pandemic , which is not an encouraging sign .
In the U.S. , some states , such as Connecticut , have extended deadlines to conduct mandatory sexual harassment training that were introduced after the # MeToo movement .
Company executives should pay attention .
As many people continue working remotely and others begin transitioning back to the office , employers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behavior and mistreatment of employees .
Industries like finance have to improve their dire record on harassment .
But employers can step up by putting more effort into offering anti-harassment training and following up on complaints .
At a time like this , Kalev says , companies need to send a strong anti-harassment message and get more people involved in rooting out misconduct .
Bystander training , for example , can teach staff to speak up when they spot inappropriate behavior .
This should be beefed up online and reinforced as an important @ @ @ @ @ @ @ work cultures .
Companies can also create easier , non-adversarial reporting mechanisms for employees to share concerns and complaints .
Longer term , Kalev and her coauthor Frank Dobbin , a professor of sociology at Harvard , also suggest creating task forces and publishing data that reveal the extent to which harassment permeates a firm .


washingtonpost--2020-02-20--Analysis | A Fugitive Billionaire Isn’t Creditors’ Biggest Worry

Established in the 1990s , Founder has expanded into every business imaginable .
The company had 23 onshore issues outstanding as of early December , when it first missed a payment , with two-thirds , or 24 billion yuan ( $ 3.43 billion ) , due over the next year .
Its $ 300 million dollar bond due this April is trading at 33 cents on the dollar .
So far , distressed state-owned enterprises have treated foreigners with kid gloves , trying to settle their offshore bills before slaughtering traders onshore .
Bohai Steel Group Co. made good on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ onshore a year earlier , and only started restructuring last year .
While commodities trader Tewoo Group Co. in November became the first SOE since 1998 to not pay offshore investors back in full , it still offered something .
Qinghai Provincial Investment Group this month agreed to pay out three dollar bonds , although some with as little as 37.65 cents for every dollar of debt : 54 % of its investors accepted .
For those Qinghai investors who complained they were “ treated as beggars , ” just wait and see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ restructuring , suppliers and banks will be the first in the pecking order , not offshore bond investors .
Take a look at who ’ s on Founder ’ s all-star restructuring team : the People ’ s Bank of China , various banking regulators and the Ministry of Education — the ultimate parent of Peking University .
Banks will get their money back before everyone else .
It ’ s about time the government stepped in .
Just like HNA , which is on the verge of a takeover , Founder ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for too long .
The company has had trouble getting much-needed capital injections from fellow SOEs because its ownership and state links are unclear .
It ’ s also mired in a legal battle with fugitive businessman and social media sensation Guo Wengui , persona non grata for aspiring SOE bosses .
Li You was Founder ’ s CEO until 2015 , when he was arrested for insider trading involving Guo .
The executive was given a four-and-a-half-year sentence and fined 750 million yuan .
In a series of pending lawsuits against Peking @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who currently own 30 % of the conglomerate , now claim they should have control of the company .
Meanwhile , Founder said a property developer controlled by Guo owes it 14 billion yuan in unpaid bills .
A court-ordered restructuring would wipe out all equity-holders ’ rights — not to mention air their dirty laundry .
No doubt , the coronavirus outbreak could be a black swan that drags China Inc. further into a liquidity crisis .
But at least investors are now psychologically prepared for a drastic economic slowdown , defaults @ @ @ @ @ @ @ use this opportunity to clean out its closets .
Shuli Ren is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian markets .
She previously wrote on markets for Barron ’ s , following a career as an investment banker , and is a CFA charterholder .


washingtonpost--2020-02-20--Analysis | R.I.P. HNA, and the $143 Billion Empire You Built

In theory , Beijing was already running the show behind the scenes .
In early 2018 , as Anbang Insurance Group Co. ( another binge-buyer that scooped up assets like New York ’ s Waldorf Astoria Hotel ) was being taken over by the Chinese government , HNA was extended over $ 3 billion of credit lines by large state-owned lenders to keep going .
Since then , on Beijing ’ s directive , it has sold off assets and attempted to retreat to its core airline-related business .
Despite state support , HNA has still been late to make @ @ @ @ @ @ @ run the sprawling businesses it bought .
An official takeover would mean ownership changes at its foreign affiliates and subsidiaries .
Would Ingram Micro Inc. , the Irvine , California-based electronics distributor HNA bought in 2016 , effectively become a Chinese state-owned enterprise ?
And if it did , would the company then have to go back to the Committee on Foreign Investments in the U.S. for approval ?
Under its existing agreement with CFIUS , Ingram Micro is required to operate as a standalone company , and is subject to annual audits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ security agreements , according to Moody ’ s Investors Service .
The company ’ s board composition is governed by an agreement with CFIUS and the U.S. Defense Department .
If the government officially takes control of HNA , those relationships will get more complicated .
Just this week , the U.S. State Department designated five Chinese state-owned media outlets as foreign missions , increasing their reporting requirements around property and personnel .
Waltzing onto foreign boards or owning overseas real estate isn ’ t as easy for Chinese entities as it once @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that with the outbreak all but halting the real economy , hard-up borrowers are coming to the fore .
Analysts had long seen HNA ’ s indebtedness as a significant risk to the financial system .
To fund the borrowing spree that fueled its risk , the company spun a complex web of debt between subsidiaries and affiliates , using its units as collateral at times to take on yet more debt .
Now , Beijing is opening the spigots and relaxing bad loan limits to encourage banks to lend more freely and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this emergency environment , the ongoing risk of a collapse in HNA ’ s enormous net debt pile — worth $ 69 billion at the end of June , bigger than the borrowings of PetroChina Co. or Walmart Inc. — isn ’ t helping .
You ’ re less likely to extend credit to a struggling business if you think your existing loan book might turn bad .
It ’ s never easy to undo the excess of an M & A binge , and HNA ’ s large and labyrinthine balance sheet @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has barely moved the needle .
While total assets have fallen by about $ 46.53 billion , to $ 142.8 billion , since their peak at the end of 2017 , net debt is actually marginally up , making it increasingly difficult for HNA to service its borrowings .
Affiliates and subsidiaries like Ingram Micro and Swissport have already distanced themselves , placing clauses in debt agreements that protect their cash flows .
Throughout HNA ’ s history , operating income has only occasionally run ahead of interest payments .
To the extent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ these plates spinning at all , it ’ s likely to have depended heavily in recent months on the way that HNA ’ s investments in logistics , air transport , catering and retail have given it a presence throughout the sinews of China ’ s economy , and the world ’ s .
The coronavirus represents a critical blow to that proposition .
China ’ s aviation market has shrunk from the world ’ s third-biggest to 25th place because of the infection .
Hotels and shopping malls are empty .
Cash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Beijing is still trying to shed the assets of Anbang , now renamed Dajia Insurance .
Officially unwinding the House of HNA will prove a much hairier task .
But China may have no other options left .


washingtonpost--2020-03-22--Analysis | Refusing Free Money Is a Sign of Fear

When two parties swap currencies for , say , five years , every three or six months each earns interest in the currency it bought , and pays interest in the currency it sold .
The dollar is usually involved : Someone , somewhere always wants the greenback to oil the wheels of commerce .
It shouldn ’ t cost too much more to obtain dollars this way than to borrow them in the London interbank market .
If it did , global banks would jump right in to arbitrage away the difference and make risk-free money in the process @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the 2008 crisis .
Since the advent of the Dodd-Frank legislation and the Volcker rule , however , Wall Street banks ’ risk appetite has dwindled , and a gaping basis swap spread — a numerical measure of badly wanting dollar funding and not getting it — has become a reliable indicator of nervousness around the world .
One such squeeze is currently on .
You see it in South Korea , where the roundabout way of raising dollar funding that I just described cost as much as 3 % for three months @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the three-month Libor .
That ’ s a lot of nickels begging to be picked up by global banks .
But the crumbling of their own share prices amid the economic dislocation caused by the coronavirus is making lenders hesitant to expand their balance sheets .
Might as well save capital for a share buyback .
The G-10 average of basis swap spreads , a favorite gauge of fear for researchers at the Bank for International Settlements , suggests the tightness in the dollar market has risen with the trade-weighted U.S. currency .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , isn ’ t as bad yet as during the financial crisis .
The G-10 basis swap spread is less than half as wide as it was in 2009 , the euro zone troubles of 2011 or the 2016 dislocation after China ’ s sudden devaluation of the yuan .
The Korean won-dollar spread , however , is off the charts .
It ’ s worrying , because South Korea has acted as a canary in the coal mine before .
In 2007 , Korean basis swaps started acting up in June — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Brothers .
Exporters wanted dollars , and they weren ’ t getting them .
The situation was brought under control only after the Federal Reserve authorized temporary dollar-liquidity-swap arrangements with 14 central banks , including the Bank of Korea , between December of that year and October 2008 .
The Fed resuscitated the emergency lines late Thursday in Asia .
Help couldn ’ t have arrived a moment sooner .
A country ’ s hard-currency reserves — and Korea has $ 409 billion now , compared with $ 250 billion in June 2007 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ panic go away .
Regional reserve sharing arrangements , such as the Chiang Mai Initiative mutual-support network established by some Asian central banks , don ’ t work when trouble comes at the same time for everyone .
Liquidity woes are showing up in other markets , too .
Exchange traded funds that track bond indexes have suddenly stopped following them , and Wall Street banks are reluctant to make money by closing the gap .
What more can be done ?
One lesson from previous episodes , like the squeeze that erupted @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to avoid defending exchange rates .
The rupiah has weakened 11 % this year , the most of any Asian currency .
But because it has adjusted swiftly , it ’ s relatively easier for Indonesian banks to get dollar funding .
The other important lesson is this : King dollar is the currency of global multinationals , many of whom are now Asian .
The banks that supply them , in good times and bad , will be wanted by every national banking regulator in their counties .
But who are these @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tackled in a subsequent column co-authored with my colleague Nisha Gopalan .
Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies and financial services .
He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews .
He has also worked for the Straits Times , ET NOW and Bloomberg News .


washingtonpost--2020-05-08--U.S. Cases Rise 2.3%; Pence’s Aide Tests Positive: Virus Update


washingtonpost--2020-05-08--Analysis | Risk Managers Did Not Ace the Coronavirus Test

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washingtonpost--2020-05-08--Without CDC Guidance, Reopenings Follow a Patchwork of Rules

“ People tell me they don ’ t quite trust the official guidelines and they ’ re nervous to see what others are doing , ” said Reed , who ’ s owned his Reed Books shop for 40 years .
The problem , he said , is “ just that there are so many varying messages.
” As businesses across the U.S. begin reopening in the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic , they ’ re following a patchwork of state , local and industry guidance on how to do it most safely .
What they are not following are official and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top public health agency , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -- because the Trump administration hasn ’ t released them .
The White House coronavirus task force said Thursday it is seeking revisions to CDC guidance on reopening the country , after the Associated Press reported that the Trump administration shelved the release of an 17-page document that was originally due last week .
The draft included step-by-step instructions for restaurants , schools or mass transit , covering everything from staffing levels and sick leave to how to handle ventilation and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The White House blocked the document out of concern the recommendations were too prescriptive , two administration officials said Thursday .
CDC guidelines are in the process of being edited , White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said Friday .
State and local health departments in places such as Georgia , Alabama , North Carolina and Ohio , where some nonessential businesses have reopened or are about to , have put out their own guidelines .
Many are using earlier CDC guidance or following parameters laid out by the White House task force @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but the new CDC guidelines were supposed to offer more detailed advice , said Howard Koh , a professor of public health leadership at Harvard University.The draft appeared to address very specific questions that “ everybody is asking , ” he said .
“ The CDC is the go-to agency for any public health crisis , ” Koh said .
“ The public looks to them for any guidance , particularly as we consider the very difficult decisions about reopening.
” Local public health officials had also been “ anxiously awaiting ” the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , chief executive officer of the Washington-based National Association of County and City Health Officials , which provides guidance to 2,800 health departments.
“ We can not be more chagrined , ” she said.The group will distribute the guideline excerpts that have appeared on the Internet .
“ Even though it ’ s not official , it still has important information that can be used as a template for decisions , ” Freeman said .
The top two trade groups representing major retailers such as Walmart Inc. , Target Corp. and Best Buy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to governors outlining a three-phased plan for how stores can maintain public safety once they are allowed to reopen their doors to customers .
The guidelines call for stores to have “ robust ” health and safety protocols in place , including sanitation and social-distancing procedures .
In Nevada , newly passed rules for opening casinos are less stringent than some individual operators have said they would implement .
Wynn Resorts Ltd. , for example , already released its own 23-page plan , which includes checking temperatures at entrances , dealers sanitizing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ bags with hand sanitizer and face masks to guests .
In Florida , where restaurants were allowed to open in part on Monday , Tampa restaurateur Nick Vojnovic has been listening to the Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association and National Restaurant Association , as well as trying to comply with various local government mandates .
He runs a franchise company , Little Greek Franchise Development , with locations from Texas to Illinois , and for now his franchisees are plotting their own path forward .
Everyone ’ s wearing masks and gloves and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Some are opening for dine-in service , others are sticking to curbside takeout , Vojnovic said .
Florida has mandated that dine-in restaurants operate at no more than 25 % capacity and separate tables by six feet .
However , many things are left to the restaurateur ’ s discretion , including whether employees should wear masks , whether they should put hand sanitizer at each table and whether to use disposable menus , the state ’ s restaurant trade association says .
In Alabama , Tuscaloosa ’ s Lavish boutique lets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uses only half its dressing rooms to keep people apart and disinfects madly : “ Any time someone tries something on , we disinfect the clothing , the fitting room and the curtain , ” said store manager Ashton Martin .
“ Anything they may have touched , we disinfect.
” Providing guidance to the public and local authorities during health crises is one of the CDC ’ s main missions , and the shelving of the step-by-step guidelines is another blow to an agency that has receded from the Trump administration ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Many state plans are very specific and “ several of them are really good , ” he said .
“ A lot of the guidance the CDC has put together is getting out into the field now .
”


washingtonpost--2020-04-09--N.J. Sees Peak in Three Days; Johnson Out of ICU: Virus Update

Three weeks after the governments of Canada ’ s three most populous provinces told their 28.4 million residents to stay home , the measures appear to be working .
The provinces , which have three-quarters of Canada ’ s people , have recorded just 1.2 deaths from Covid-19 per 100,000 residents .
That compares with 32 for New York , 10 for Michigan and 6 for Washington .
Sweden reported 106 more virus-related deaths on Thursday , taking the total to 793 , on par with the daily gains reported in the past week .
The Nordic country is under @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a laxer policy response compared with the rest of Europe .
Restaurants , shopping centers and primary schools all remain open in Scandinavia ’ s biggest economy .
Deaths in Sweden continue to outpace its Nordic neighbors , which implemented stricter measures to curb the spread early on , and are now discussing how to lift them .
Pfizer and BioNTech said they will jointly develop a vaccine for Covid-19 , potentially supplying millions of doses by the end of 2020 .
The two companies plan to jointly conduct the first clinical trials @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , assuming regulatory clearance .
Clinical trials for the vaccine candidates will initially be in the U.S. and Europe across multiple sites .
The number of people going hungry around the world could double in just a few months as the pandemic wreaks havoc on food supplies and hurts incomes , according to a group of major food companies , industry bodies and academics .
The number of those suffering from chronic hunger may surge from about 800 million .