washingtonpost--2020-02-26--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Spreading Coronavirus

It has been described as “ insidious ” because a large portion of infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , potentially spreading it to others .
There ’ s also evidence that it can spread among hospital workers and possibly in feces and on contaminated surfaces .
As of mid-February the apparent mortality rate was about 2 % , lower than the 9.5 % rate for SARS .
But such numbers are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak .
Some disease-modeling experts project as many as hundreds of thousands of people are actually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t even know they have it .
One study published Feb. 10 estimated a mortality rate of 1 % once all cases , including those with no or only mild symptoms , are counted .
Infections appear to cause a mild illness in children , adolescents and younger adults in most cases , and potentially more severe disease in older people .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , dry cough and tiredness -- but not the sneezing and runny nose typical of a cold .
In severe cases , studies suggest the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tract and migrates to the lungs , causing difficulty breathing and the inflammation and congestion associated with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with underlying illnesses such as cardiovascular disease .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found the majority of deaths occurred in patients over 60 years old .
Of confirmed cases , 81 % were mild , 14 % were severe and 4.7 % critical @ @ @ @ @ @ @ genetically similar to the SARS virus but appears milder in terms of illness and case fatality rate .
Another related virus , known as MERS-CoV , that ’ s been spreading since 2012 , has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded .
By contrast , an estimated 50 million people died in the 1918 influenza pandemic that had a case-fatality ratio of less than 5 % , but infected up to a third of the world ’ s population .
Most likely by coming into contact with virus-containing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ person breathes , talks , coughs or sneezes .
These can be transferred directly to someone else in close proximity or via hands and surfaces .
How long it survives on surfaces is still not known , but preliminary studies suggest coronaviruses may remain infectious from a few hours to a few days .
Simple disinfectants kill the virus .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the virus can spread through feces or farther through the air in tiny particles known as aerosols .
People who are still incubating the virus and show @ @ @ @ @ @ @ try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people a person who is infected is likely to infect .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( pronounced “ r naught ” ) , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
The World Health Organization gave a preliminary range of 1.4 to 2.5 for Covid-19 .
At the high end , that makes it similar to SARS and more infectious than flu .
A group from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ January .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them , responsible for diseases that range in severity from the common cold to MERS .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
The WHO says that new strains emerge periodically around the globe , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is more closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats than it is to the SARS coronavirus .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
There is always concern when a new human pathogen emerges because people typically lack immunity to it and there usually @ @ @ @ @ @ @ available .
Novel coronaviruses -- those unseen in humans before -- represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , as SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
In Hubei , thousands of people have been hospitalized in isolation wards and hundreds are being treated in intensive care units , creating what officials there have described as an “ extreme , severe and abrupt public health crisis.
” While cases have risen in countries including South Korea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it still isn ’ t clear how deadly the disease will be .
The last pandemic , an outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 flu in 2009 , infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and may have killed as many as 575,000 people worldwide in the first year it circulated , with about 80 % of them younger than age 65 , according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
In contrast , the risk of death from the new coronavirus , as well as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ highest in the elderly .
China ’ s government imposed a quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in the region that ’ s keeping some 50 million people mainly at home .
New hospitals were built from the ground up in days , and the production of medical equipment ramped up .
The WHO declared the outbreak a global health emergency , a designation that can help mobilize international responses .
The U.S. , Australia , India and other countries were denying or restricting entry for non-citizens arriving from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus ’ s spread .
Various countries have also restricted travel to and from Italy , South Korea and Iran , where the outbreak has accelerated .
The WHO hasn ’ t recommended any limitations on travel and is asking donors for $ 675 million , mainly to help poor countries prepare to fight the epidemic .
With Covid-19 showing up in more and more countries , health officials began to switch their goal from stopping its spread to preparing for it .
Early praise for China ’ s response has ebbed .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ information about the virus and has struggled to explain changes in the way it counts new cases .
In a nation where the internet is heavily censored , there was a rare outpouring of social media fury over the death from the virus of a Chinese doctor who had waved an early red flag about the outbreak but was silenced by police .
The top officials in Wuhan and Hubei were later removed from their posts .
But China ’ s strict quarantine likely bought the rest of the world two to three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ averted many infections , according to the WHO .


washingtonpost--2020-02-26--Analysis | An Obscure Rule Snaps One of the World’s Hottest Rallies

This Valentine ’ s Day gift was particularly welcome for the cash-hungry companies listed on the new economy-focused ChiNext board .
In the past , only those that were profitable and with dire deleveraging needs were allowed to sell new shares .
The universe has now broadened to practically the entire board .
This change , along with interest rate cuts , has propelled the ChiNext to rally 27 % this year before Wednesday ’ s selloff , a rare bright spot amid the virus-related selloffs .
New-economy stocks are no longer distressed , investors reason .
The new regulations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ selling of shares to a pre-selected group of investors .
These deals are now allowed to be priced at a deeper discount — from 90 % of the 20-day trading average to 80 % — and the lockup period for new shares has been shortened to as little as six months from 18 months .
With the new terms much more appealing to investors , company management naturally wants to sell more shares .
Eight semiconductor firms have announced private-placement plans , seeking 24 billion yuan ( $ 3.42 billion ) of funding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shares have doubled this year , said it would aim to raise 4 billion yuan , equivalent to roughly half of its 2019 revenue .
Hillhouse Capital Management Pte said it would buy 2.3 billion yuan of shares from drug manufacturer Asymchem Laboratories Tianjin Co. Stocks in the chip , 5G and pharmaceutical sectors have been market darlings this year .
To be sure , the existing rule was a knee-jerk reaction to China markets ’ spectacular rise and fall of 2015 and 2016 .
Established early the following year , it was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ shares in public market at much higher prices .
A longer lockup period also means there ’ s less selling pressure on the broader market .
Yet the regulations turned out to be too strict , causing a key channel of equity financing to shut down .
In 2015 and 2016 , more than 20 % of listed firms completed private placement deals , with the fundraising peaking in 2016 at 1.7 trillion yuan .
After Beijing tightened its guidelines in February 2017 , equity fundraising has slumped .
The latest easing could @ @ @ @ @ @ @ same red flags that caused Beijing to act in the first place remain .
Combine a private sale with a 20 % discount , a short six-month lockup period with a market in upswing , and it ’ s not hard to imagine that some companies would find ways to manipulate their share prices higher .
Sure , China ’ s private sector is starved for funding — which is only exacerbated by the coronavirus — and loosening equity refinancing rules could be a nice gesture from Beijing .
Still , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to channel money to those in need , not to mention it encourages selling on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange , which hosts the ChiNext board .
Just like consumers who clear masks and toilet paper from supermarket shelves , companies also hoard — in this case , cash .
Can you blame them ?
Consider how often the government flip-flops : A drastic tightening in February 2017 , followed by some loosening in November 2018 , to a full re-opening of the floodgates this month .
If you were a business owner , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ war on shadow banking , you ’ d likely raise funds whether you need the cash or not .
I wouldn ’ t be surprised if almost every eligible firm on the ChiNext board will want to do private sales .
After the 2015 bust , this index is finally coming back to life this year , as investors ditch their favorite baijiu liquor stocks for chip designers and drug makers .
Tread carefully : This Valentine ’ s Day rose comes with some thorns .

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washingtonpost--2020-02-26--Analysis | Disney’s Big Secret Is Finally Out

It ’ s the most significant change to happen to the entertainment giant in more than a decade .
Iger had become almost as much the face of the company as Walt Disney was himself , and was responsible for building it into the globally admired brand and content powerhouse that it is now .
While Iger , at 69 years old , had been inching closer to retirement , it wasn ’ t supposed to come until next year .
Shares of Disney fell 6 % in after-hours trading , as investors tried to pick their jaws up off @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s memoir , “ The Ride of a Lifetime , ” which was released last year , might have been led to believe that another top Disney executive , Kevin Mayer , was next in line for the keys to the Magic Kingdom .
Mayer oversees Disney ’ s new streaming-TV operations — the very business at the center of the new Disney .
It ’ s become the focus of attention both inside and outside the company in recent months as Disney entered the industry ’ s streaming wars with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made repeated mentions of Mayer in the book , and few of Chapek .
Mayer is “ a master strategist and dealmaker , ” Iger wrote .
“ A CEO couldn ’ t ask for a better strategic partner.
” Partner .
The question now is , will Mayer stay , after being passed over for what might be the most enviable job in corporate America ?
Even though Iger , during a conference call held for investors and analysts Tuesday , tried to soothe concerns about the seemingly abrupt move , it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a larger backstory , one where there ’ s potentially some internal friction .
As Iger kept putting off retirement over the years , other successor candidates seemed to get sick of waiting and left .
Not choosing Mayer does raise an even bigger question : How do Iger and the company view the future of Disney ?
If only for their respective roles , Chapek in some ways represents Disney ’ s past , while Mayer represents the new Disney .
All that being said , Chapek is a widely respected leader @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a decision anyone at Disney would make lightly .
From one Bob to another , Iger said Tuesday that it was the right time to transition to a new CEO and that Chapek “ is absolutely the right person.
” There ’ s little reason to question that .
And it should be remembered , when Iger was first named CEO , investors weren ’ t so sure about him , either .
There is one telling nugget from Iger ’ s book that could be seen as presaging today ’ s turn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ transformative dealmaking — buying Pixar , Marvel , Lucasfilm and then the big one , Rupert Murdoch ’ s 21st Century Fox — Iger instead highlights opening Disney ’ s Shanghai park as one of the defining moments of his career .
Chapek played a big role in that .
Chapek “ oversaw the largest capital expansion in the history of our parks , ” Iger said Tuesday , highlighting the Shanghai opening , as well as the “ Star Wars ” Galaxy Edge attraction at its U.S. parks and the company ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Iger added that he and the board had identified Chapek as his likely successor “ quite some time ago.
” Iger isn ’ t saying goodbye just yet .
He explained that part of the reason for stepping aside now is so that he can focus more on the creative side of Disney .
What he wants to accomplish more than anything before he leaves is “ getting everything right creatively.
” Content is more important than ever as Disney almost single-handedly props up the box office and tries to lure fans to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ integrating the Fox assets and keeping alive its traditional media networks that still drive the bulk of its profits .
But that ’ s still only part of the reason for choosing to step down now .
Whatever the case , it ’ s the end of an era for Disney ; Iger has left an indelible mark , and left Disney better than it was before him .
Chapek has big shoes to fill .


washingtonpost--2020-02-26--Analysis | U.S. Stock Market Appears Most Vulnerable to Virus Shock

What ’ s not clear is which stock markets would suffer the sharpest declines .
That obviously depends on how the crisis unfolds — where the virus spreads , how many people are affected , the impact on regional economies and trading routes , and so forth .
But it also depends on the extent to which markets have already digested the potential risks , and by that criterion , the U.S. stock market appears particularly vulnerable .
To see stock investors at their most carefree , take a look at the NYSE FANG+ Index .
It ’ s a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies that many investors believe are poised to dominate their respective industries .
In order of market value , they are Apple Inc. , Amazon.com Inc. , Google parent Alphabet Inc. , Facebook Inc. , Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. , NVIDIA Corp. , Netflix Inc. , Tesla Inc. , Baidu Inc. and Twitter Inc. As a group , they are among the most extravagantly priced stocks in history , even for growth stocks .
By any measure of price relative to earnings , the FANG index is nearly as expensive as the Russell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the dot-com mania two decades ago — or even more so .
The price-to-earnings ratio of the FANG index is 34 based on analysts ’ estimates of this year ’ s earnings per share , which is just 6 % cheaper than the comparable P/E ratio for the growth index in March 2000 .
Other measures are even less flattering .
Based on last year ’ s earnings , the FANG index ’ s P/E ratio jumps to 55 , or an 8 % premium over the comparable ratio for the growth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inflation-adjusted earnings over the last 10 years , it jumps again to 73 , or a 16 % premium over the growth index .
Investors value the FANG index ’ s revenue even more than its profits .
The price-to-sales ratio of the FANG index is 5.9 , or 41 % higher than the growth index ’ s P/S ratio of 4.2 in March 2000 .
Suffice it to say , when it comes to the FANGs , the market appears to have little concern for the risks around coronavirus or anything else @ @ @ @ @ @ @ potential problem for the U.S. is that eight of the 10 stocks in the FANG index are American companies .
Remember that stocks in broad-market gauges such as the S & P 500 Index or Russell 1000 Index are weighted based on their market value .
Therefore , as the market value of the stocks in the FANG index has spiked relative to others , so has their weighting in broad-market indexes .
Those eight U.S. stocks represent less than 1 % of the Russell 1000 by number , but they now account @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market value .
That more than anything else explains the wide gap in the valuation between U.S. and foreign stocks .
The P/E ratio of the Russell 1000 is 29 , based on an average of inflation-adjusted earnings over the last 10 years , which captures the growth of both earnings and stock prices during the decade .
By comparison , the P/E ratio of the MSCI ACWI ex USA Index , a gauge of global stocks excluding the U.S. , is 19 .
That ’ s a premium of 53 % for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since the data series begins in 1998 .
If the virus turns out to be a serious and sustained threat to the global economy , markets are likely to rethink stock prices , including those of companies in the FANG index .
And the higher the valuation , the greater the potential for downward revision .
That may seem unlikely to investors who view the FANGs as the ultimate blue chips , capable of navigating any environment , but no company is an island .
Apple , the largest of the FANGs by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it will miss sales forecasts because of coronavirus-related disruptions in production and demand for its products .
More important , blue chips don ’ t necessarily provide more safety , particularly when valuations are stretched .
In the late 1960s and early 1970s , for example , investors piled into U.S. growth stocks , driving up valuations of companies with fat profits , a key measure of quality .
In the ensuing sell-off sparked by the 1973 oil crisis , the most profitable 30 % of U.S. stocks , weighted by market value @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to September 1974 , including dividends , according to numbers compiled by Dartmouth professor Ken French .
Meanwhile , the cheapest 30 % of U.S. stocks by price-to-book ratio , which are widely viewed as lower quality , declined 28 % during the same period .
It happened again during the dot-com boom in the late 1990s .
Investors ’ renewed obsession with growth stocks drove up the valuations of highly profitable companies .
In the ensuing bear market sparked by the collapse of internet companies , the most profitable 30 % of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2000 to September 2002 , while the cheapest 30 % of U.S. stocks declined just 10 % .
So there ’ s a lot riding on whether the U.S. disruptors can navigate the risks around coronavirus , not just for their own investors but also for those betting on the broad U.S. stock market .
It makes sense that overseas markets took the first hit , but if the virus isn ’ t contained soon , don ’ t be surprised if the U.S. stock market turns out to be hit the hardest @


washingtonpost--2020-02-26--Analysis | Where Are We in the Quest for a Coronavirus Vaccine and Drugs?

When faced with a new , serious disease causing fatal illness in thousands of patients , doctors often try unproven treatments that they think stand a chance of working .
When they note positive outcomes , they often try to make them public so that others can try the same approach , and perhaps save lives .
But good outcomes don ’ t necessarily mean a treatment is effective .
Patients often recover from viral illness on their own , or improve because of other forms of supportive care such as rest and hydration .
And some really sick patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how effective it is .
That requires carefully structured and monitored tests known as clinical trials .
Typically , these studies are designed to show that patients who get the drug do better than those who don ’ t , and that the results aren ’ t a product of chance .
The trials try to subtract all the other influences and factors that might disguise the true effectiveness of the drug .
It depends .
Drugs that are already approved against one infection and shown to be safe can be tested for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ months .
Experimental drugs may take longer to test , as they have to go through initial studies to evaluate whether they are safe .
Other factors that can slow the process include the supply of drug candidates and the availability of patients to test them in .
The trials also have to be approved by ethics watchdogs and drug regulators .
According to a 2017 review , the median time for regulators to approve a new drug in 2015 was 333 days in the U.S. , 422 days in Europe , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ since expedited its process .
When drugs are deemed to fill an immediate need , regulators can speed them through the approval process using a number of paths .
More than 100 clinical trials have been launched in China to study everything from anti-flu drugs and antibody-containing plasma from recovered patients , to traditional Chinese herbal medicine .
World Health Organization researchers have identified as the most promising agent remdesivir , an experimental antiviral made by Gilead Sciences Inc. originally as a treatment for Ebola .
Clinical trials of remdesivir as a treatment @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.S .
In animal studies , it produced encouraging results against related coronaviruses that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS ) and Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS ) .
Trial results from China are expected in late April .
Several other clinical studies will test how well AbbVie Inc. ’ s Kaletra , an HIV treatment combining two drugs , treats Covid-19 .
Some of the world ’ s biggest companies are working on vaccines against the novel coronavirus .
Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson are collaborating with the U.S. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Development Authority .
Moderna Inc. has prepared an experimental vaccine for use in the first stage of a clinical trial .
Anthony Fauci , director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases , said that if trials went forward at “ rocket speed , ” it would take about a year and a half to complete trials , scale up production and make a vaccine widely available .
There ’ s no guarantee of success , however .
SARS killed nearly 800 people in a 2002-2003 outbreak , and there @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Because SARS is also caused by a coronavirus , having a vaccine against it would at least have given researchers a head start .


washingtonpost--2020-02-26--Analysis | Disney’s Next $180 Billion Won’t Come Easy

Iger , who has been CEO of Disney since 2005 , startled investors on Tuesday with his abrupt decision to step down , a move that wasn ’ t expected to happen until the end of next year .
As soon as the subject line of the email from Disney appeared in my inbox at 4:06 pm on Tuesday , a cascade of negative thoughts raced through my mind : Is Iger sick ?
Is another Hollywood # MeToo moment about to unfold ?
Was the company at risk of losing yet another successor candidate whose patience was tested by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The email went on to say that Iger is staying on only as chairman for his remaining 22 months , while Bob Chapek has stepped into the more hands-on and culpable role of CEO .
Oh , to be a fly on the wall during those boardroom discussions , the only people who know why exactly the succession plans were sped up .
But as the shock from the announcement subsides , and as financial markets remain in tumult , Iger ’ s unspoken logic behind the move — or at least part @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Disney has a difficult year ahead , and the stock-market rout adds to the pressure .
Why should Iger ’ s legacy be marked by such a tense final chapter ?
“ It ’ s the right time to transition to a new CEO , ” he said Tuesday , and maybe it really was .
Iger signaled that in his remaining time at Disney , he ’ ll have a more amorphous role that involves working on the creative side to make sure he leaves it in top shape .
But strategically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ set out to , assembling what he thinks are the right collection of assets , and handing them off to Chapek .
Iger , though himself a controversial CEO pick at the time , ended up reigniting Disney ’ s imagination and sense of magic , restoring a 97-year-old company to its heyday — better , even — accomplishing it all with his reputation for integrity intact .
Disney ’ s market value increased by some $ 180 billion during his tenure , beating peers and the broader market .
His acquisitions of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ trifecta of genius , bringing more beloved characters into the Disney universe , elevating the company ’ s movie-making business , expanding its fan base and setting it up for later success in the streaming-TV era .
Iger also expanded Disney ’ s theme parks and amplified their experience of being transported into a world of childlike wonderment through years of careful investment , capped by the 2016 opening of Shanghai Disney Resort and last year ’ s opening of the “ Star Wars ” -themed Galaxy ’ s Edge .
Also last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of all time , Marvel ’ s “ Avengers : Endgame.
” But just as I wrote then , as “ Endgame ” headed for a record $ 2.8 billion in global ticket sales and after his string of successes , Iger would have a hard time outdoing himself .
Disney ’ s scheduled box-office releases for 2020 have much less of a wow factor than last year ’ s , with “ Avatar 2 ” pushed back to December 2021 and the next “ Star Wars ” film not coming until 2022 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Disney , with its parks , cruise ships , hotels and movie business , will undoubtedly feel some painful effects of the potential pandemic .
The Shanghai park , which Iger saw as the capstone project of his career , has already been closed for a month because of the flu-like virus .
Earlier on Tuesday , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned Americans to prepare for possible closings of schools , sports arenas and other germ factories , calling it a matter of when , not if , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the new CEO , is a longtime Disney executive who has been running the company ’ s parks and resorts since 2015 , and before that the consumer-products and home-video businesses .
In his first Bloomberg Television appearance as Disney chief , he said he wasn ’ t ready to talk about how the coronavirus might affect Disney , but assured investors that “ we ’ ll come back better and stronger than ever.
” “ Back ” implies it ’ s going somewhere .
And down is where the stock went @ @ @ @ @ @ @ losses to 12 % .
As it is , the company ’ s investments in Disney+ , its new streaming-TV service , are weighing on earnings .
The launch of Disney+ went better than anyone expected , and it had 26.5 million subscribers as of December .
But now comes the hard part : Comcast Corp. ’ s NBCUniversal will introduce its Peacock app in April , followed by AT & T Inc. ’ s spruced-up HBO Max in May .
Apple TV+ could also pose a threat should Tim Cook decide to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The early signups for Disney+ were easy wins .
Keeping them will be harder and expensive , and those efforts will continue to disrupt the rest of the Disney empire .
Iger could see his retirement date “ out of the corner of my eye , ” he wrote in a memoir , titled “ The Ride of a Lifetime , ” published in September .
“ It surfaces at unexpected times .
It ’ s not enough to distract me , but it is enough to remind me that this ride is @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-02-26--Analysis | Coronavirus Complacency Is Worse Than Panic

If Covid-19 turns into a global pandemic , as looks increasingly likely , this problem is going to crop up again and again .
Doctors want to convey information that will help people limit their own risks and minimize the burden on health systems .
At the same time , they worry that the very act of sharing information will encourage people to act as if they ’ re in the grip of an emergency .
Take canned goods .
Many public health experts would recommend that people keep well-stocked food and medicine cupboards at the moment .
In the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ will mean you ’ re not forced out of the house too often , or left at the mercy of supply chains that may be damaged by illness in the workforce .
The best way to do this is probably to marginally upgrade your normal daily purchases — an extra pack of tissues here , one more bag of rice there — and build up a stockpile over a course of weeks .
That ’ s clearly not what ’ s happened in places where coronavirus is spreading , though : We ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Hong Kong and panic-buying in orderly Singapore .
One obvious reason for this is that it ’ s not all that hard to clear out a supermarket .
Grocery stores typically have no more than two to four weeks of inventory on hand at any one time , and much of that will be held off-site .
If everyone buys sufficient supplies to see themselves through an extra few weeks , it ’ s not unlikely that you or someone you follow on Facebook is going to find some empty shelves , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s foundations are quaking .
The behavior that leads to such shortages isn ’ t necessarily irrational .
If you think a horde of panic-buyers are about to descend on your local shops next week and leave them out of stock , the rational approach might be to do your own panic-buying first .
Once everyone starts thinking that way , a stampede is all but inevitable .
“ Tell us everything , being very clear that this is a dynamic situation that could change , ” said Jacqueline Street , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ University of Wollongong in Australia .
“ Don ’ t just say our hospitals are prepared , say how our hospitals are prepared.
” The more that information is shared — not just on confirmed cases and deaths , but on how many tests came back negative , and on which subgroups of the population are most and least at risk , for example — the more individuals will be able to make their own judgments about safety and act responsibly .
No public official wants to be accused of spreading alarm , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ face of a novel pandemic infection is both justified and salutary .
The small behavioral changes that will be needed to reduce risks from Covid-19 — more care over hand-washing and touching , staying away from major public events in countries where the disease is spreading — won ’ t come unless people are alert to the risks of infection .
“ Actual panic is quite rare in these situations , ” said Julie Leask , a professor of risk communication at the University of Sydney ’ s nursing school .
“ People @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level of concern is , in a way , important for gaining good cooperation.
” Despite the way things may look if you spend a lot of time on social media , humanity isn ’ t really one bad press conference away from descending into bloody anarchy .
The situation isn ’ t helped when our political leaders fail to prioritize pandemic preparedness — President Donald Trump has repeatedly pushed to cut funding for the area — or to speak up in defense of ethnic-Chinese people at risk of prejudice .
But sharing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ readiness ; and putting a bit more pressure on supply chains now when they ’ re best able to bear it — all of that is a better strategy than waiting and then sounding a red alert at the last minute .
At this point , the fear of coronavirus is probably spreading through the world ’ s population even faster than the virus itself .
That may not be a bad thing if it encourages behaviors that will slow down the outbreak .
A measure of fear may be not so much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .


washingtonpost--2020-02-26--Analysis | Energy Is 1% Away From Losing Power to Power

The two sectors closed out a Tuesday to forget with weightings barely 4 basis points apart .
All else equal , for energy to shrink below the weighting of utilities , oil and gas stocks need only drop another 1.2 % ( 1 ) .
The sector ’ s down almost 9 % so far this week .
It is tempting to read as little or as much into this as one likes .
The spread of coronavirus is a genuine black swan that will tend to hit exposed cyclical sectors ( oil and gas ) and support traditional havens @ @ @ @ @ @ @ look stretched , valuation-wise : At almost 21 times , utilities sport the highest forward price/earnings ratio of any major S & P 500 sector , besting even tech by more than a point .
At the other end of the scale , green-tinged schadenfreude can be expected , as energy ’ s demotion is seen as a portent of a carbon-woke , increasingly electrified society .
There is some truth to that , too , as expectations of peak oil demand — which are different from and foreshadow the actual event — @ @ @ @ @ @ @ energy valuations .
The biggest factor may lie somewhere between the immediacy of relative sector sentiment and the existential challenges of the future .
As observed in everything from Exxon Mobil Corp. ’ s dividend yield ( hitting a new high of 6.4 % ) and the increasingly junky spreads in energy high-yield bonds , coronavirus has hit an industry weakened by its prior excesses .
Not a message likely to find favor in Houston either , but then the market ’ s never been that polite .
( 1 ) This assumes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the S & P 500 , including utilities .
Which isn ’ t realistic , obviously , but still , that is a mighty small gap .
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners .
Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy , mining and commodities .
He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal ’ s Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times ’ Lex column .
He was also an investment banker .


washingtonpost--2020-02-26--Analysis | Germany’s “Black Zero” Rule May Be Gone Forever

The yield on 10-year German government bonds rose by two basis points to -0.49 % , a muted response because there ’ s unlikely to be any need for the state to do more debt sales .
Technically , this measure will give Germany ’ s regional governments more flexibility in going over their budget limits — with a one-time shift of municipal debt to the federal level — but it ’ s unlikely to stop there .
The Federal government budget will surely follow as the relentless slowdown of manufacturing activity — the proud engine of German economic success @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Although the country ’ s manufacturing purchasing managers survey , a key economic indicator , has recovered from a September low , it remains below the 50 level , which indicates decline .
Any first-quarter recovery looks to have been stopped in its tracks by the coronavirus outbreak .
The fiscal softening is a belated bout of common sense for Germany , which enjoyed a 1.9 % budget surplus last year .
There is plenty of room to play with before the budget goes into the red , so the Schwarze Null won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ratio of German debt to gross domestic product has slipped below 60 % , outshining virtually all other first-rank economies .
Berlin has the enviable luxury of all of its bonds out to 30 years in maturity offering negative yields .
The Treasury literally gets paid to borrow money .
More than 100 billion euros of municipal infrastructure projects have been shelved or put on hold because of to the debt brake , so there are shovel-ready projects available .
This will still need broad political approval , as any big spending will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Bundesrat assemblies with a two-thirds majority .
But it should win approval from the Green party , if the plans come with a climate-friendly emphasis .
Realistically , the Schwarze Null is unlikely to survive the next national election in 2021 as all the political parties will need to burnish their spending credentials .
It will certainly cheer European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde whose every waking moment is focused on pushing EU governments to turn on the fiscal taps rather than relying on monetary stimulus .
If the Germans crack then that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ European governments to follow .
Marcus Ashworth is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering European markets .
He spent three decades in the banking industry , most recently as chief markets strategist at Haitong Securities in London .


washingtonpost--2020-02-26--Analysis | Suddenly, That Beach Holiday Has Lost Its Appeal

Shares in TUI AG , Europe ’ s biggest travel operator , have fallen about 18 % this week , while those of the budget airlines EasyJet Plc and Ryanair Holdings Plc are down by about 20 % .
Already reeling from the “ flight shame ” phenomenon , which has seen some environmentally conscious consumers shunning air travel , and disruption from grounded Boeing 737 Max jets , a global viral outbreak will have a profound effect on the confidence of travelers and vacationers everywhere .
Europe ’ s peak period for early holiday bookings , stretching from Boxing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ended just as the virus was emerging .
The first Saturday in January is known as “ Sunshine Saturday , ” when holidaymakers hit the travel agents or , more probably , buy their flight and accommodation on the internet .
But even booked trips are at risk of cancellation as Europeans digest what ’ s happening in the Spanish holiday island of Tenerife , where 700 people have been contained in a hotel after several guests were found to have the virus .
What ’ s more troubling for the travel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ doesn ’ t come from early bookers , but rather from people who are buying holidays from now onward .
The outbreak in northern Italy is equally difficult for the airlines ( it is a big part of Ryanair ’ s business ) and travel companies , but that country tends to offer more upmarket destinations .
The Canary Islands and mainland Spain — where some cases have also been identified — are firmly in the middle and mass markets , so the impact there could be bigger .
TUI AG ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Spain and the Canary Islands .
Cruises , obviously , have been hit hard by the outbreak , given the pictures of passengers quarantined on ships being beamed around the world .
That ’ s another big worry for TUI , which which has been building its ships business .
Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate that the volume of bookings has fallen by double digits across the whole of the cruise market in the U.S. and Europe in recent weeks .
If the outbreak is contained relatively soon , the effect on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who have held off from booking should come back to the market .
But if infections continue beyond May , as looks increasingly likely , the industry ’ s problems will intensify .
At this point , the travel groups are usually snapping up airline capacity for the peak summer months .
As they make all of their profit during this period , a prolonged outbreak now would be doubly damaging .
One poor summer season in 2018 , because of a European heatwave , helped to sink the British travel giant Thomas @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by more than 1 billion pounds ( $ 1.3 billion ) of debt , but it ’ s fate underlines just how dependent the travel industry is on the traditional beach getaway .


washingtonpost--2020-02-26--Analysis | The Man Who Made a Failing Carmaker Beat Mercedes

That battle for survival has just been made even more difficult by the spread of coronavirus , which threatens to shutter plants and sap demand for new vehicles across the industry .
The shares of auto companies — even very profitable ones like Peugeot — have been hammered this week .
But if anyone can steer a safe path across this vertiginous chasm , surely Tavares can .
For various reasons the big European carmakers have all changed their CEOs recently , but Peugeot has clung to its leader since 2014 , and he ’ ll be in the driving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chrysler Automobiles NV .
The strong full-year results that Tavares unveiled on Wednesday show why his services are in such demand ; the contrast with struggling French rival Renault SA is telling .
Peugeot ’ s car operations achieved an 8.5 % adjusted operating margin in 2019 , whereas Renault managed just 2.6 % .
( 1 ) While Renault ’ s net cash is dwindling , forcing it to slash its dividend , Peugeot ’ s has swelled to more than 10 billion euros ( $ 10.9 billion ) , allowing it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Tavares has made a virtue of doing more with less and he ’ s been willing to make unpopular decisions to turn around under-performing businesses .
Under General Motors Co. ’ s ownership , the European carmaker Opel/Vauxhall consistently lost money , but having joined the Peugeot stable it now boasts a 6.5 % adjusted operating margin .
That ’ s better than Mercedes-Benz .
Wages costs as a percentage of sales have improved — a big achievement considering the workforce is heavily unionized — and Tavares has been ruthless about unlocking cash @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he thinks Peugeot could still break even if revenues fell by half .
He ’ s achieved this without neglecting the urgent task of cutting vehicle emissions .
Thanks to new electrified products , he ’ s confident Peugeot will meet the European Union ’ s tough pollution targets this year and thus avoid regulatory fines .
Peugeot isn ’ t perfect .
The company is struggling in inflation-hit Argentina and its performance in China has been poor .
But its negligible China market share is an advantage right now .
The company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than many peers .
What Peugeot lacks in economies of scale — its 3.5 million yearly car sales are one-third of what Volkswagen sells — it makes up for by being more agile .
It ’ s almost a pity that Tavares is about to complicate the “ small is beautiful ” story by merging with Fiat .
Peugeot ’ s shares have declined by almost 30 % since the deal terms ( highly favorable to Fiat and its Agnelli family owners ) were announced in October .
In fairness , Fiat is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ two companies generated about 5 billion euros in free cash flow last year and the tie-up should bring substantial cost savings .
Yet Peugeot ’ s shareholders aren ’ t willing to credit those benefits just yet .
Antitrust official might raise objections and history shows there ’ s plenty else that can go wrong in complicated cross-border mergers .
A generation of celebrated auto executives , such as Daimler ’ s Dieter Zetsche and Renault ’ s Carlos Ghosn , have departed the stage just as conditions became difficult .
( Fiat @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he could complete the job ) .
Tavares , who ’ s 61 , isn ’ t the retiring type .
He still has much to prove .


washingtonpost--2020-04-20--Senate Sets Up Tuesday Vote on Aid Plan as Talks Near Agreement

“ Since this is so urgent , I have asked that the Senate meet again tomorrow in a new session that was not previously scheduled , and the Democratic leader has agreed to my request , ” McConnell said on the Senate floor .
“ It ’ s past time , past time , to get this done for the country.
” Unanimous consent would be required for the Senate to pass the measure during a pro forma session which would allow most members to avoid traveling to Washington amid coronavirus restrictions .
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer notified members @ @ @ @ @ @ @ soon as Wednesday to consider legislation .
Because an objection to unanimous consent is likely , Hoyer said House members would probably have to travel to Washington for a recorded vote .
Discussions are focused on adding $ 310 billion to the Paycheck Protection Program , designed to help small businesses keep workers on their payrolls as much of the country remains under stay-at-home orders .
Another $ 50 billion to $ 60 billion would go to a separate Economic Injury Disaster Loan program that provides financing and advances grants of as much @ @ @ @ @ @ @ plan also would include $ 75 billion of the $ 100 billion Democrats have demanded for hospitals , with a significant portion aimed at rural hospitals , as well as $ 25 billion for virus testing .
Several issues remain outstanding , according to three Democratic officials .
A person familiar with the negotiations said Monday that Democrats and Republicans still had a disagreement over the formula to distribute health-care aid to the states .
Another remaining disagreement is over the testing program , including which agency -- the Centers for Disease Control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Health -- should oversee it , according to one person familiar with the discussions .
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi both said Sunday the two sides were close to a deal .
President Donald Trump was cautiously optimistic about breaking the deadlock in place last week as the Paycheck Protection Program ran through its entire $ 350 billion in funding .
“ We have a good chance of getting a deal , ” Trump said at a briefing on Sunday .
“ A lot of good work has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ answer tomorrow.
” But Pelosi is coming under pressure from her party ’ s liberal wing to wring more concessions , including aid for state and local governments that the GOP is resisting putting in the package .
“ It is going to be very difficult to support a package that doesn ’ t have what we need in terms of help for state and local governments , ” Pramila Jayapal , head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus , said on a conference call Monday .
House Democrats will get an update on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ caucus-wide call with Pelosi and other leaders at 4 p.m. Monday .
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell and former World Bank President Jim Yong Kim will be guests on the call for a discussion on the public health response to the Covid-19 pandemic .
During the Sunday call with GOP senators , McConnell and Mnuchin said the agreement won ’ t include aid for state and local governments , according to a Republican aide .
That had been one of the original demands of Pelosi and Senate Democratic leader Chuck @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increase for the food stamp program , also was left out , the aide said McConnell and Mnuchin told the GOP lawmakers on the call , which was joined by Trump and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows .
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan , a Republican and chairman of the National Governors Association , and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo , a Democrat who is the NGA ’ s vice chairman , said on April 11 that without at least $ 500 billion , states would have to curtail essential services as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ skyrocket .
This week ’ s proposed legislation is considered an interim step in efforts to prop up a U.S. economy frozen by the nationwide shutdown caused by the spread of the novel coronavirus .
There ’ s general agreement in Congress and at the White House that a so-called phase four comprehensive economic rescue package would be needed , following the $ 2 trillion package approved late last month .


washingtonpost--2020-03-31--China Is Using More Coal Again. This Time It May Be a Good Thing

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washingtonpost--2020-05-01--Fed Expands Lending, ECB Steps Up, Antipodean Alliance: Eco Day


washingtonpost--2020-05-01--Paycheck Protection, Frontline Banks, Austerity Debate: Eco Day


washingtonpost--2020-05-14--Analysis | Why Gulf Dollar Pegs Are Strained by Oil and Virus

As Saudi Arabia embarked on an oil-price war in March by boosting crude production , traders were betting through the derivatives market that the region ’ s currencies would weaken within a year .
Such a scenario is possible only if countries abandon their currency pegs .
Fixed exchange-rate regimes in Asia were swept away during the currency crisis of the late 1990s , when speculators forced the likes of Thailand and South Korea to abandon their links with the dollar .
Currency pegs are now largely confined to the major oil producers in the Middle East which appear unwilling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ members of the Gulf Cooperation Council -- Bahrain , Kuwait , Oman , Qatar , Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- have been running currency pegs or managed foreign-exchange regimes since the early 1970s .
Kuwait pegs the dinar to a basket of currencies believed to be dominated by the U.S. dollar , while the others are linked solely to the greenback .
With oil and gas priced in dollars , the pegs have helped shield the countries from the volatility of energy markets and allowed central banks to accumulate foreign-currency @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the robustness of pegs relates in large part to the size of countries ’ foreign-exchange reserves and foreign assets held by their sovereign wealth funds .
Most of the Gulf countries remain heavily reliant on hydrocarbons to pay the bills -- Saudi Arabia gets around two-thirds of its revenue from oil and Kuwait about 90 % -- so the slump in prices has put the region ’ s economies under huge stress .
As the price of Brent crude crashed by more than half in March , Saudi Arabia , the largest @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s foreign-exchange reserves by $ 27 billion that month , a decline of more than 5 % .
The system has survived stern tests , including successive years of low oil prices in the 1990s , a period of dollar weakness before the financial crisis in 2008 and another oil-price crash in 2014 .
Speculators jumped in then to challenge the Saudi peg , with 12-month forwards -- which investors use to bet on the peg breaking or to hedge in case it does -- climbing to an all-time high of 3.85 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ peg is 3.75 . )
Instead of choosing to devalue the riyal , the kingdom cut spending and subsidies and turned to debt markets to fund its budget deficit .
Its neighbors have adopted similar strategies .
Progress in diversifying revenue away from oil has been mixed as have attempts to rein in spending .
Government debt as a share of gross domestic product has jumped across the region since 2014 .
Saudi Arabia will run its seventh consecutive budget shortfall this year and the U.A.E .
is on course for a record @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
It all points to the need for drastic economic measures to combat the twin punch of low oil prices and global recession .
The Saudis in May announced a trebling of VAT and lowered state allowances .
Saudi Arabia , the U.A.E.
, Kuwait and Qatar all have the firepower in the form of sizable currency reserves to defend their pegs .
The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority said in May its foreign-exchange reserves cover 43 months of imports , as it reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining the peg .
The most vulnerable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ given their precarious public finances and strained reserves .
Bahrain requires an oil price of $ 95.6 a barrel to balance its budget , while Oman needs $ 86.8 , the highest in the GCC , according to the IMF .
Bahrain at least has the cushion of a $ 10 billion bailout package from its wealthier neighbors .
Possibly .
It lacks a backstop credit line from its regional allies and may also pay the political price of having resisted taking sides in regional disputes or supporting Saudi Arabia ’ s foreign @ @ @ @ @ @ @ producer in the Middle East , Oman faces a seventh straight year of budget deficit , with this year ’ s set to widen to 17.5 % of GDP from 9.7 % in 2019 , according to S & P Global Ratings .
In its favor ?
The fear of a domino effect should the first peg in the region go .
S & P said it expects other GCC nations to come to Oman ’ s rescue should significant external liquidity pressures threaten its peg because any contagion effect could hurt the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to challenge other pegs , any devaluation would raise the risk of inflation taking grip through higher import costs , reducing people ’ s purchasing power and eroding real incomes .
It would also lower the value of local savings and may prompt capital outflows as citizens move their money overseas to safeguard its value .
Given that dollar-priced oil and gas remain the dominant exports , the region ’ s economies would be unlikely to gain much from weaker currencies .
Options for countries post-peg include moving to a managed floating exchange @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the dollar -- to a peg against a basket of multiple currencies , as Kuwait did in 2007 .


washingtonpost--2020-06-18--Analysis | Hello, Home Office; Bye-Bye, Dunkin’ Drive-Thru

U.S. restaurant traffic in the morning hours suffered from a steeper initial drop during March and early April than was seen at lunch or dinner .
Even now , breakfast is recovering more slowly than those other mealtimes .
This almost certainly reflects the fact that commutes have disappeared for legions of workers .
After all , it doesn ’ t make sense to take your regular spin through the McDonald ’ s drive-thru lane when you ’ re not already in the car en route to your cubicle .
And a ritual pop-in to the Starbucks near your subway @ @ @ @ @ @ @ dent in this business is an unfortunate development for the restaurant industry .
The morning hours had been a relative bright spot for years , making up for declines or tepid growth later in the day .
Breakfast also tends to be an especially profitable category for fast-food restaurants because the ingredients are relatively cheap .
We ’ ve gotten some early hints as to how this dynamic is affecting major restaurant chains .
Executives at Dunkin ’ Brands Group Inc. said on the company ’ s latest earnings call that they had @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crucial 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. time frame , even as things had picked up between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. Jack In The Box Inc. said in May it wasn ’ t putting much advertising behind breakfast menu items because with fewer commuters on the road , it doesn ’ t make sense to do so .
McDonald ’ s Corp. has said breakfast “ will be the most challenged ” eating occasion to recover as states start to reopen , and Starbucks Corp. said last week that it expects the pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 3.2 billion to its sales in the current quarter , a financial wound that reflects a number of Covid-19-related challenges , including the shortage of worker bees stopping by their cafes as if on autopilot .
Meanwhile , Wendy ’ s Co. has said its launch of a breakfast menu in early March “ performed extremely well out of the gate , ” but the disruption of diners ’ morning routines certainly won ’ t make it easy for the chain to keep up momentum .
It ’ s a tough break for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ early birds as a cornerstone of its growth strategy .
While independent and chain restaurants alike are looking to delivery to make up for some of the business they ’ ve lost in their dining rooms and carry-out windows , I wouldn ’ t count on that model to be much of a savior at breakfast time .
Breakfast orders tend to have low average checks , so consumers might balk at paying delivery fees and tipping a driver for such a small purchase .
It ’ s unlikely that working from home @ @ @ @ @ @ @ or two from now as it has been in these early months of the pandemic .
But a portion of the nation ’ s workforce is discovering they can do their desk-jockey jobs just fine without sitting in traffic or enduring a shoulder-to-shoulder train ride each morning .
If given the choice by their employers , as a number of companies are doing , they won ’ t go back to that daily slog .
This change will necessarily guide how restaurants think about everything from where they locate their outposts to how @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It also should hasten existing efforts from Dunkin ’ and Starbucks to offer menu items and promotions to make them more of an all-day dining destination .
Of course , the embrace of working from home is nowhere near the largest challenge restaurants face due to the Covid-19 crisis .
A deep recession has the potential to decimate demand , causing diners to make fewer trips to restaurants overall and to rely on discounts and promotions when they do .
Pandemic-related changes loom as even more existential risks .
Social-distancing rules and norms @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lower capacities than they were designed for , threatening the so-called four-wall economics of a restaurant .
Health concerns may keep some diners from feeling safe enough to hit up these eateries in the first place .
Still , the smaller but significant work-from-home effect on dining is a clear illustration of the breadth and complexity of problems the entire restaurant industry is confronting , and the extent to which every corner of the economy is encountering weird domino effects that threaten businesses — from dollars to doughnuts .


washingtonpost--2020-05-18--Lobbying Stampede Breaks Out as Window Narrows for Next Stimulus

With any compromise still weeks away , there ’ s still a window for lobbyists to get their wish lists in front of lawmakers .
Democrats want money for state and local governments and to expand direct cash payments and unemployment insurance .
Republicans are pushing to give employers temporary immunity from worker lawsuits to help speed re-openings .
“ When there ’ s one moving train in town , everyone is trying to jump on it , ” said Lisa Gilbert , vice president of legislative affairs at the advocacy group Public Citizen .
“ Many different niche businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ find relief , ” she added .
“ This brings lobbyists out of the woodwork.
” Although Democrats long have resisted any steps to limit the ability of groups and individuals to file lawsuits , Pelosi has indicated she ’ s open to the idea of protecting businesses that follow government regulations and guidelines and some moderate Democrats have expressed support for some liability protections .
The group has gained bipartisan support to expand a forgivable loan program for small firms to include non-profits such as trade associations , chambers of commerce , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ engage in lobbying .
ASAE wants access to stimulus loans under the Small Business Administration ’ s Paycheck Protection Program , although House Democrats have moved to keep lobbyists among the non-profits from getting the money .
The Retail Leaders Industry Association -- which represents big box stores such as Walmart Inc. , Target Corp. , and Best Buy Co. Inc. -- is backing a change to legislation to allow workers to keep receiving supplemental unemployment benefits if they take on part-time work because of concerns that those benefits make it hard for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coalition of groups representing the cannabis industry seeks legislation that would give the growers , dispensers and others access to banking and financial services , rather than having to rely on cash .
The industry said in a letter that cash transactions increase the risk of spreading the virus .
A provision to give marijuana farmers access to financial services is already included in the Democrats ’ stimulus proposal .
Distillers want Congress to suspend federal excise taxes on domestic and imported distilled products , while making permanent an excise tax break for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the year .
They also want tariff relief , after a trade dispute between the U.S. and the European Union led to a duty on American whiskey , and have called for the creation of an industry stabilization fund .
Several trade groups are also seeking to write off losses from extending credit to customers .
They include groups related to bakers , florists , wine and beer wholesalers and air-conditioning and roofing contractors .
The National Association of Home Builders and the National Association of Realtors , at the same time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pushes for tax policies meant to spur the construction of low-income housing .
The Outdoor Recreation Roundtable , a coalition of 31 national trade associations representing sporting goods businesses and recreation sites , sent a letter calling for lawmakers to allocate $ 900 million a year to a government fund helping to preserve land and water for public use .
Another trade group , the Outdoor Industry Association , is pushing funding for bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure , money for states and municipalities to build parks and trails to “ help mitigate the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ LeadingAge , a group that represents non-profit nursing homes , assisted living facilities and low-income senior housing communities , is asking for $ 100 billion as well as increased access to telehealth services , hazard pay for workers , Medicaid funding and low-income housing assistance .
Argentum , which represents for-profit assisted living facilities , is asking Congress for $ 20 billion to cover the costs of protective equipment and increased wages .
It ’ s also seeking access to the small business aid for senior living companies .
“ If they don @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to see more trash in their streets , more broken lights , fewer cops on the beat , dirtier tap water or longer 911 response times , ” said Lee Saunders , president of the American Federation of State , County and Municipal Employees labor union .
The bipartisan National Governors Association is also urging the passage of $ 500 billion in aid to shore up budgets and address the costs of the pandemic .
Lawmakers and advocates for small businesses have also called for many changes to the SBA ’ s PPP @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much as $ 10 million that can become grants if the proceeds are used for payroll and certain expenses for two months .


washingtonpost--2020-02-25--Analysis | How Iran’s Hard-Liners Got Campaign Boost From Trump

While political parties exist in Iran , they ’ re not formally represented in parliament .
Instead , there are two broad political factions -- reformists and principlists -- with varying shades of orthodoxy within each group .
Parliament had been dominated by a coalition of reformists , moderates and pragmatic conservatives since the last vote in 2016 , which bolstered Rouhani and his cabinet .
Now , according to Iran ’ s semi-official Mehr news agency , the principlist faction has taken more than 220 of the 290 seats .
It contains Iran ’ s most right-wing , religious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prioritize the country ’ s security apparatus and theocratic leadership above all else .
They mostly oppose engagement with the West and tend to be deeply hostile to the U.S. Rouhani staked his credibility , and that of his camp , on Iran ’ s 2015 deal with world powers in which it agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for relief from sanctions that had crippled its economy .
In 2018 , President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the deal and began imposing harsh sanctions on Iran , depriving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expected from the accord .
Moderate politicians who supported Rouhani had already lost some support after failing to deliver on promises of greater social freedoms .
But the American U-turn on the nuclear deal left them even weaker while empowering hard-liners , who largely opposed the nuclear accord from the start .
It wasn ’ t just that .
In the weeks ahead of the election , Iran ’ s 12-member Guardian Council , a powerful body of legal experts responsible for vetting candidates , barred thousands of people from running .
That @ @ @ @ @ @ @ within the moderate coalition and some conservative politicians allied with Rouhani , who complained that the disqualifications effectively created a single-faction race .
The council defended its decisions and said many of those barred were guilty of corruption or “ anti-state behavior.
” The disqualifications are thought to have suppressed voter turnout , which was a record low 42.5 % .
A reported surge in coronavirus cases in Iran also dampened turnout , as did a boycott of the election by some reformists in response to the state ’ s violent crackdown on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sudden increase in the price of gasoline .
It is weak relative to other seats of power .
Ultimate power in Iran rests with the supreme leader , currently Ayatollah Ali Khamenei , who is chosen by a group of Islamic scholars and politicians .
The president , who is popularly elected , nominates cabinet members and is the government ’ s chief executive .
In addition to approving all candidates for office , the Guardian Council has veto power over all legislation passed by parliament .
Still , parliament serves as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the budget , treaties and government ministers , whom it can also impeach .
Its sessions feature policy debates and critiques of the government .
The increased representation of former security figures in parliament -- including from the powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps -- may diminish tolerance for discussions around civil society , social liberties and media freedom .
Rouhani is expected to struggle to ratify major legislation during his final year in office , including efforts to bring Iran ’ s banks within international anti-terrorism financing standards .
Many hard-liners are deeply suspicious @ @ @ @ @ @ @ European countries and have advocated cutting ties entirely with the European Union .
Khamenei , who accused Europe of joining forces with the U.S. against Iran , has called for a pivot to a “ resistance economy , ” in which the country would depend less on imported goods while relying on China and Russia for investment and technology transfers .


washingtonpost--2020-02-25--Analysis | The Coronavirus May Be Worse Than a Natural Disaster

Most employees remain at home , and things , in theory , could return to normal when China ’ s 300 million migrant workers get back to their jobs .
But that ’ s now looking distant .
Just 20 % to 30 % will resume before March , according to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. By the second quarter , that proportion will only reach 60 % to 80 % .
Interruptions from labor strikes , for example , will hit the bottom line and delay shipments for a few weeks , while the economic hit from severe acute respiratory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ By contrast , events like hurricanes , fires and floods , have a longer-term effect .
Factories get destroyed , roads become difficult to traverse and logistics routes are upended by the destruction .
Firms eventually run out of inventories .
Until reconstruction work is well on its way , it ’ s hard to get the industrial cogs turning .
Hundreds of natural disasters occur globally each year that threaten lives and livelihoods .
In the U.S. , around 40 % to 60 % of small businesses never reopen their doors as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Emergency Management Agency .
The ripple effects can be severe and cascade globally .
A study of 41 major U.S. disasters showed that $ 1 of lost sales for suppliers led to a $ 2.4 loss for their downstream customers .
Consider Japan ’ s earthquake in March 2011 , the fourth-largest ever recorded .
Manufacturing output fell 15 percentage points that month and didn ’ t recover until August .
Industrial production of transport equipment tanked , flowing through to exports .
Japanese automakers including Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in March .
American companies with a big dependence on Japanese parts suffered , too .
It took the better part of a year to get production levels back to where they were before the earthquake ; U.S. manufacturing output fell by 1 % in April and stayed low for almost six months .
The coronavirus ’ s spread will be even more disruptive .
From its large network of ports and industrial parks to the billions of yuan in subsidies , China is the nerve center of global manufacturing .
In 2015 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarter of the value-added share in global imports .
There simply aren ’ t enough alternative suppliers for the crucial , if basic , parts manufactured by China ’ s thousands of small and medium companies .
Even if Beijing provides the cash , businesses are hamstrung with the regulatory burden of reopenings and labor shortages .
The network effect will be amplified and prolonged , studies have shown .
The trouble is , China Inc. won ’ t get back to work until these small and medium enterprises do .
While the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ manufacturers of so-called intermediate inputs , which are shipped globally , are having the hardest time .
A survey of 2,240 such companies showed that more than 90 % of respondents had delayed business resumption .
A large portion haven ’ t decided when they will reopen .
Even companies like Toyota and Honda are struggling to get fully back online in China , given their dependence on local parts makers .
The companies partially restarted operations at some plants as of last week .
The longer businesses are closed the higher the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as firms run out of inventories and stockpiles .
And even when they do return , factories won ’ t be picking up where they left off .
Volkswagen AG ’ s joint venture with China FAW Group Co. , for instance , resumed at four plants last week , but won ’ t be at full steam until May .
It will try to recoup losses by November , according to a production manager cited in state-run China Daily .
That looks optimistic .
Meanwhile , manufacturers have few choices .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ now depend on lean supply chains .
All the advances in manufacturing — such as Toyota ’ s famed “ just-in-time manufacturing ” — are premised on minimal inventory and short lead times .
That looks like it could backfire .
As Toyota ’ s president Akio Toyoda said last week , “ Automobiles have a broad base , and there are various things like the status of parts supplies that you don ’ t know until you put everything in motion again.
” It ’ s only natural to look for comparisons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Knowing that SARS cases dwindled after a few months and the economy eventually rebounded can be comforting , to a certain degree .
Yet we ’ re starting to see that the coronavirus outbreak has few precedents .
It may only be a matter of time before this episode becomes the benchmark for future disruptions .


washingtonpost--2020-02-25--Analysis | What You Need to Know About the Spreading Coronavirus

It has been described as “ insidious ” because a large portion of infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , potentially spreading it to others .
There ’ s also evidence that it can spread in feces , on contaminated surfaces and among hospital workers .
As of mid-February the apparent mortality rate was about 2 % , lower than the 9.5 % rate for SARS .
But such numbers are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak .
Some disease-modeling experts project as many as hundreds of thousands of people are actually infected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even know they have it .
One study published Feb. 10 estimated a mortality rate of 1 % once all cases , including those with no or only mild symptoms , are counted .
Infections appear to cause a mild illness in children , adolescents and younger adults in most cases , and potentially more severe disease in older people .
Frequently reported early signs are fever , dry cough and tiredness -- but not the sneezing and runny nose typical of a cold .
In severe cases , studies suggest the virus @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and migrates to the lungs , causing difficulty breathing and the inflammation and congestion associated with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with underlying illnesses such as cardiovascular disease .
A Chinese study of 72,000 cases found the majority of deaths occurred in patients over 60 years old .
Of confirmed cases , 81 % were mild , 14 % were severe and 4.7 % critical .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ similar to the SARS virus but appears milder in terms of illness and case fatality rate .
Another related virus , known as MERS-CoV , that ’ s been spreading since 2012 , has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases recorded .
By contrast , an estimated 50 million people died in the 1918 influenza pandemic that had a case-fatality ratio of less than 5 % , but infected up to a third of the world ’ s population .
Most likely by coming into contact with virus-containing droplets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ breathes , talks , coughs or sneezes .
These can be transferred directly to someone else in close proximity or via hands and surfaces .
How long it survives on surfaces is still not known , but preliminary studies suggest coronaviruses may remain infectious from a few hours to a few days .
Simple disinfectants kill the virus .
There ’ s a theoretical risk the virus can spread through feces or farther through the air in tiny particles known as aerosols .
People who are still incubating the virus and show no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people a person who is infected is likely to infect .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( pronounced “ r naught ” ) , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
The World Health Organization gave a preliminary range of 1.4 to 2.5 for Covid-19 .
At the high end , that makes it similar to SARS and more infectious than flu .
A group from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing estimated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them , responsible for diseases that range in severity from the common cold to MERS .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
The WHO says that new strains emerge periodically around the globe , and several known versions are circulating in animals and haven ’ t infected humans .
The virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million and capital of Hubei province .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ where live animals were also sold , but about a third of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
The viral genome is more closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats than it is to the SARS coronavirus .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
There is always concern when a new human pathogen emerges because people typically lack immunity to it and there usually aren @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Novel coronaviruses -- those unseen in humans before -- represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , as SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
In Hubei , thousands of people have been hospitalized in isolation wards and hundreds are being treated in intensive care units , creating what officials there have described as an “ extreme , severe and abrupt public health crisis.
” While cases have risen in countries including South Korea , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still isn ’ t clear how deadly the disease will be .
The last pandemic , an outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 flu in 2009 , infected an estimated 61 million people in the U.S. alone and may have killed as many as 575,000 people worldwide in the first year it circulated , with about 80 % of them younger than age 65 , according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
In contrast , the risk of death from the new coronavirus , as well as from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the elderly .
China ’ s government imposed a quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in the region that ’ s keeping some 50 million people mainly at home .
New hospitals were built from the ground up in days , and the production of medical equipment ramped up .
The WHO has declared the outbreak a global health emergency , a designation that can help mobilize international responses .
Hong Kong , the international financial center that functions with some autonomy from China , announced its own @ @ @ @ @ @ @ U.S. , Australia , India and other countries were denying or restricting entry for non-citizens arriving from China in an attempt to stop the virus ’ s spread .
Various countries have also restricted travel to and from Italy , South Korea and Iran , where the outbreak has accelerated .
The World Health Organization hasn ’ t recommended any limitations on travel and is asking donors for $ 675 million , mainly to help poor countries prepare to fight the epidemic .
Early praise for China ’ s response has ebbed .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ information about the virus and has struggled to explain changes in the way it counts new cases .
In a nation where the internet is heavily censored , there was a rare outpouring of social media fury over the death from the virus of a Chinese doctor who had waved an early red flag about the outbreak but was silenced by police .
The top officials in Wuhan and Hubei were later removed from their posts .
But China ’ s strict quarantine likely bought the rest of the world two to three @ @ @ @ @ @ @ averted many infections , according to the WHO .


washingtonpost--2020-02-25--Analysis | Home Depot Delivers But Can’t Get Comfortable

The gains indicate the home-improvement chain is back on track after a third-quarter stumble .
Then , same store sales were below estimates , and growth was slow enough to prompt the company to cut its full-year guidance on this measure .
A strong housing market helped in the latest quarter .
Consumers are more likely to renovate when prices are rising ; moving to a new home also is a catalyst for spending .
Meanwhile , warm weather prompted some projects to be brought forward , although this was offset by fewer winter storms , which typically drive repairs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ upbeat results are also a sign that an $ 11 billion effort it announced in 2017 to modernize the company ’ s stores , upgrade digital options and enhance offerings for its key trade customers is starting to bear fruit .
Home Depot is right to invest .
Do-it-yourself stores can be soulless sheds if not updated regularly and managed properly .
What ’ s more , the focus on the trade market is sensible .
Many consumers , particularly young people , are shunning DIY in favor of “ do-it-for-me ” – @ @ @ @ @ @ @ job .
But the group needs to ensure the benefits of its spending continue to filter through to its results .
And there are risks .
The first is from the deadly coronavirus .
About 70 % of the company ’ s products are sourced from the U.S. ; the rest come from elsewhere , much from China , where supply chains are being affected by the spread of the disease .
A large amount of first-quarter merchandise is already in stores , and the company is working with suppliers to ensure a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ danger , however , is that the epidemic has a broader effect on global economic growth and consumer confidence .
Monday ’ s stock market plunge will do little to make Americans feel good about their wealth , something that is essential for purchasing expensive items such as new kitchen .
Meanwhile , Lowe ’ s Cos. — which is working on its own renovation project under new chief executive Marvin Ellison —could become a more muscular rival .
Investors seem to be shrugging off these concerns right now .
The shares rose @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and now trade on a forward price earnings ratio of about 23 times , a premium to about 18 times for Lowe ’ s .
Home Depot may have put its rough patch behind it .
But at its current valuation , the risks can ’ t be swept entirely under a graphic print rug .


washingtonpost--2020-02-25--Analysis | China’s Policy Flip-Flops Are Scaring Investors

Granted , China ’ s political brass have been on steroids in recent weeks , meeting often and issuing frequent statements .
In the last month alone , Xi and the Politburo Standing Committee — which consists of the country ’ s top leadership — have met four times , each concluding with a speech by the president .
This level of engagement is extremely rare .
From the latest communication , bureaucrats and investors alike may well believe that stable economic growth is front-and-center again .
Xi devoted six paragraphs of his Feb. 23 speech , or 914 words @ @ @ @ @ @ @ three paragraphs and 701 words to the virus .
Unlike earlier meetings , politicians didn ’ t wear masks , a show of confidence that the worst of the outbreak is behind us .
By Monday morning , six provinces lowered their virus alert levels , a move that signaled freer labor migration .
This came as China ’ s economy remained at a standstill amid municipal officials ’ draconian quarantine measures .
As of Friday , only large businesses in the relatively virus-lite eastern provinces saw half of their workers return , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ behind , the government said in a briefing .
Against that backdrop , it ’ s possible that Wuhan ’ s misstep came down to crossed wires .
Somewhere along the chain of command , the instructions were misinterpreted .
This certainly wouldn ’ t be the first time .
In late 2018 , a few third-tier cities felt emboldened to ease their housing-price controls , after a pro-growth agenda emerged at a key national economic meeting .
Within a day , officials were forced to reverse their stance because they didn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Beijing ’ s top directives .
And who can blame them ?
Xi ’ s words often run at odds with those of Beijing ’ s own technocrats .
Last weekend , when he called for “ even more ” flexible monetary policies , the People ’ s Bank of China took a more measured tone .
In an op-ed for the Financial Times , Deputy Governor Chen Yulu said the central bank saw a V-shaped rebound as the most likely scenario .
He made no mention of reserve ratio cuts , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
If history is any guide , Xi ’ s word is the last word .
Central bankers and finance ministers are just the messengers who sometimes don ’ t get the instructions quite right .
In March of 2015 , for instance , the PBOC denied it would lower the down payment levels for second homebuyers in morning media reports , only to confirm it by the afternoon .
To be sure , hazy wording can give local governments room to interpret national policies to their own advantage .
In Xi ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of cash .
Even Wuhan , a vibrant college town and tech hub , needed commercial activities and good jobs to fill its pension fund shortfall .
So it makes sense officials would want to get businesses up and running again .
So far , traders have largely placed their faith with Xi .
Last week , the blue-chip CSI 300 Index recouped all of its losses since the prolonged Lunar New Year break , while the new economy-focused ChiNext Index notched a three-year high .
As I ’ ve noted , this @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s Feb. 3 speech , in which he insisted on delivering this year ’ s economic growth targets .
This was widely seen as a prelude to a big stimulus .
But these lower-level flip-flops are concerning .
Investors may be able to stomach the death toll , now at more than 2,600 , or that China is sacrificing a whole province to contain the spread .
But at a time of international emergency , we can ’ t have policy U-turns .
That ’ s the downside of having an enigmatic political @ @ @ @ @ @ @ life .


washingtonpost--2020-02-25--Analysis | The Clock Runs Out on Malaysia’s New Beginning

Mahathir ruled from 1981 until retirement in 2003 , only to return 15 years later to cause the biggest electoral upset in Malaysia ’ s history .
But while his latest government did make an early attempt to remove politicians from state-linked companies and disallow “ support letters ” that help favored businessmen win contracts , institutions in Malaysia remain far too unreformed and weak to withstand prolonged political flux .
What happens next is unclear , though an investment recovery this year can be easily ruled out .
Mahathir might yet cobble together the 112 lawmakers needed to form @ @ @ @ @ @ @ may back someone other than Anwar Ibrahim , to whom he was supposed to hand over the top job after about two years .
But the prime minister obviously didn ’ t like his new partner and old enemy enough to commit to a transition date .
( Mahathir fired Anwar , who was his chosen successor , in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis .
Anwar was imprisoned on convictions of corruption and sodomy that he said were a plot to remove him from politics ) .
The 72-year-old Anwar could take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looks resigned to not becoming the eighth prime minister of independent Malaysia .
“ Maybe the ninth , ” he said at a prayer ceremony at his home as the fall of Mahathir ’ s government looked imminent .
His party , which was allied with Mahathir in an unwieldy coalition , has split .
Economic Affairs Minister Azmin Ali , who was also jockeying for the top job , left with a small breakaway faction of 10 other lawmakers.The long-ruling Barisan Nasional regime , which was Mahathir ’ s political home before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is now back in the frame .
Backing Mahathir — or his appointee — against Anwar may be the best chance for its elites to revive the old order .
The coalition lost its stranglehold on power in 2018 because of popular disgust against then-premier Najib Razak over a scandal in which $ 4.5 billion was allegedly stolen from the 1Malaysia Development Bhd , or 1MDB , state investment company and laundered around the world .
Najib is on trial for a range of related crimes ; the former prime minister rejects the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ looks likely that the new dispensation will seek legitimacy by aligning itself with the Malay-Muslim majority .
The ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities , which had long hoped that Anwar would get a chance to fulfill his promise of making economic entitlements needs-based , rather than centered on race , will be disappointed .
Decades of pro-Malay policies forged in great part under Mahathir have encouraged rent-seeking while prompting young , educated and disillusioned minorities to seek their fortunes elsewhere.When it comes to spawning new-age digital companies , the country is lagging behind @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Indonesia are both doing better , despite Malaysia making an early start to industrialize its traditional oil and plantation economy .
Any emerging coalitions will be too vested in the status quo of public construction contracts to seek a course correction .
Unstable administrations also tend to be myopic about spending and taxation .
One of the first things Mahathir did upon his May 2018 return was to scrap the goods and services tax , which had lowered Malaysia ’ s budgetary reliance on its aging oil fields .
The GST was deeply @ @ @ @ @ @ @ raised the cost of living .
But Malaysia ’ s high investment-grade rating probably won ’ t survive the global electric-vehicle revolution without more diversified sources of government revenue .
It ’ s unclear how committed a new finance minister will be to medium-term fiscal goals .
What should investors make of this muddle ?
Most of the reassessment may occur in the price of the currency as foreigners get cold feet .
Malaysian government debt , on the other hand , might remain in demand from local retirement funds .
A slowing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weigh on the under-performing equity market , could support bonds .
The coronavirus outbreak in China , which absorbs more than a fifth of Malaysian exports , is threatening to crush gross domestic product growth this year to 3.5 % , according to ING Groep NV , its slowest since the global financial crisis.But just as neighboring Singapore rolls out billions of dollars in fiscal relief to mitigate the impact of the epidemic , decision-making in Kuala Lumpur is suddenly imploding , with Mahathtair continuing only as interim prime minister .
The economy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ victim of Malaysia ’ s shortening political cycle .


washingtonpost--2020-02-25--Analysis | Salvini and Le Pen Don’t Have a Coronavirus Cure

Over the past few weeks , the EU has managed to put a fairly confident spin on its handling of the virus .
The case-load was initially relatively low : A week ago , only about 40 cases were confirmed in all of Europe .
The idea of imposing emergency national border controls in the Schengen Area — a “ border-free ” travel zone across 22 EU countries and four others — seemed a distant prospect .
Those days are gone .
Italy now has more confirmed Covid-19 cases than either Hong Kong , Singapore or Japan , according to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
That has pushed anti-EU politician Matteo Salvini to intensify his attacks on the Italian government and blame the Schengen set-up at the same time , arguing that Rome needs to impose “ armor-plated ” borders .
It ’ s not just Salvini : Next-door , far-right leader Marine Le Pen said on Sunday she was in favor of suspending Schengen and instating checks at the Italian border .
There ’ s no specific indication of what kind of controls they want — past examples include spot ID checks , for instance .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ forcefully argued against turning Italy into ” a leper colony.
” There ’ s a reason why this debate is emotive for the EU , more so than in other countries or regions that have jacked up border security to reassure voters .
The idea of a European passport-free travel zone began during the Cold War and blossomed after the collapse of the Soviet Union into a critical EU institution seen as good for the economy and for the public at large .
But while more information-sharing between countries was supposed to offset @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , crisis moments like immigration or terrorism have exposed an all-too-frequent lack of trust between EU members .
Nine countries including Germany and France have used emergency provisions to reinstate some controls at different times .
Covid-19 could unpick an already frayed unity on Schengen.EU officials are pushing back , rightly questioning the effectiveness of such a measure .
It was already hard to imagine passport checks successfully stopping terrorist attacks or illegal immigration ; it ’ s even harder to imagine them defeating an invisible infection .
This disease has already outpaced @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global , and has spread far beyond its original location of Wuhan , China .
Italy ’ s ban on direct flights to China doesn ’ t seem to have changed much : The country ’ s first tested case of the recent outbreak — a 38-year-old from southern Lombardy — had not even been to China , as my colleague Ferdinando Giugliano points out.If the idea is to isolate Italy for the benefit of other European countries , it ’ s hard to see how in today ’ s world of globally-connected @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Worse , it would corrode the kind of trust that ’ s needed to actually fight diseases like Covid-19 : Member states would have an incentive to under-report cases , less knowledge would be shared , and less research would be funded .
The World Health Organization has warned against unilateral trade and travel restrictions .
Any upside from psychologically comforting a nervous public would be accompanied by economic downsides .
Reimposing controls that introduce friction for workers , supply chains and tourists could cost 0.8 % of GDP for Schengen countries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Strategie.The problem for the EU is that , even if it keeps hold of its border-free ideals , the virus ’ s spread and the measures that are being taken are going to cost people ’ s lives and hurt its economy regardless .
The bloc ’ s soft-power-driven , open economy is clearly vulnerable to decisions already being taken by countries and companies such as shutting public landmarks , canceling trade shows and placing restrictions on tourism .
It could get worse : Back in 2006 , a European Commission research paper @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a pandemic with a mortality rate of 2.5 % ( higher than estimates for Covid-19 ) and an average of three weeks off work for those infected and their care-givers .
This scenario— a worst-case one , it must be said — predicted a drop of 1.6 percentage points of GDP.It ’ s vital , therefore , that European leaders overcome the kind of spats seen during recent budget talks and focus on a coordinated response to protect public safety and economic growth ( where possible ) .
De-globalizing the European economy to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sense ; retrenching further behind national borders does not .
To be sure , a lot depends on how deadly the new coronavirus turns out to be — more travel restrictions may become the norm across more countries as more cases are confirmed and research conducted .
But whatever ills an “ armor-plated ” Italian border is supposed to cure , Covid-19 isn ’ t among them .


washingtonpost--2020-04-24--Analysis | How the Virus Can Stall China’s Electric Vehicle Plan

Chinese companies including BYD Co. , backed by Warren Buffett , dominate the market , but foreign automakers have ambitious plans to catch up .
Volkswagen , General Motors and Daimler are among the global heavyweights beefing up their EV strategies in China this year .
Among the new models are GM ’ s Menlo , its first electric Chevrolet in the country , and Daimler ’ s Beijing-made Mercedes EQC .
VW is sticking to plans to begin EV production in China in 2020 , and Tesla Inc. in January began deliveries from a new factory in Shanghai , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s government imposed lockdowns , buyers stayed home and demand disappeared .
Passenger electric vehicle sales fell 58 % in the first quarter compared with a year earlier , steeper than the 45 % decline in the overall passenger car market , according to BloombergNEF .
One big reason : Fleet-based orders – a driver of China EV sales – were postponed or canceled , as ride-hailing and taxi trips were down 85 % in February .
On the other hand , sales were seen picking up in March as travel restrictions @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a record in March , after the local government helped the company get supplies such as masks , disinfectants and thermometers to reopen its Shanghai plant .
Unfortunately not .
Even before the pandemic the Chinese auto market was in trouble .
Auto sales fell in 2018 , the first decline in more than two decades , and dropped again last year as the U.S.-China trade war , a credit squeeze and other factors hit the economy .
Demand for EVs fell sharply after the government cut back on subsidies in mid-2019 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ Motor Corp. , suffered a 29 % drop in earnings last year , to 25.6 billion yuan ( $ 3.6 billion ) .
BYD ’ s earnings plunged more than 90 % in the last six months of 2019 vs. a year earlier — before the impact of the coronavirus hit .
Hard to say .
Anecdotal evidence from the city of Wuhan , ground zero of Covid-19 in China , suggests auto dealers are benefiting from pent-up demand as consumers are willing to make big-ticket purchases .
The China Passenger Car Association @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last year ’ s levels .
Still , S & P Global Ratings says China auto sales may decline as much as 10 % this year .
The economy is going to continue to struggle as the pandemic hits many of China ’ s trading partners .
Growth may fall to just 1.4 % this year , down from 6.1 % in 2019 , according to Bloomberg Intelligence .
Regulators are looking at delaying the nationwide roll-out of stricter emission rules ( already in effect in some areas ) to allow carmakers and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in their inventories .
President Xi Jinping ’ s government considers them crucial to China ’ s long-term industrial future , even though traditional vehicles account for most of today ’ s sales — and automotive jobs .
The government will keep domestic EVs exempt from a 10 % sales tax , and it agreed to prolong subsidies for EV purchases ( which were supposed to end on Dec. 31 ) for two more years , aiming to stabilize market expectations and boost sales .
( EVs accounted for 1.5 % of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the end of 2019 ) .
But while some countries in Europe , for example , plan to ban the sale of gas-powered cars starting in 2035 or sooner , China is unlikely to set a national timeline , Wan Gang , the father of China ’ s electric-car industry , said in an interview .
Automakers are betting on new models to lure potential shoppers back to showrooms as the government loosens stay-at-home orders .
Some companies may not survive , though .
The country has many private-sector startups that raised @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China ’ s answer to Tesla , and they ’ re vulnerable to a shakeout .
There are also foreign companies giving up on segments of the market : Renault SA in mid-April said it had agreed to transfer its 50 % stake in a local venture to partner Dongfeng Motor Corp. , but the French automaker will still try to sell EVs in China through another partnership .


washingtonpost--2020-04-24--U.S. Cases Rise 3.5%, Below Past Week’s Average: Virus Update