washingtonpost--2020-05-11--Analysis | Why Is Anyone Drilling Shale at All These Days?

The commission didn ’ t organize shut-ins of wells .
So Parsley , taking its cue from prices instead , is just shutting in some of its own anyway .
It has also suspended drilling and completing new wells .
The economics of each well — and the companies that own them — differ enormously .
But grab an envelope and imagine a well tapping one million barrels of oil equivalent , 75 % of it crude oil , the rest natural gas .
Benchmark prices : $ 30 oil and $ 2.50 gas , translating to , say , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wellhead .
That implies total revenue from those resources of $ 23.3 million .
Royalties and severance taxes take about $ 7 million of that ; operating expenses and overhead take another $ 7 million ( 1 ) .
That leaves $ 9.3 million versus the $ 9 million spent drilling and completing the well upfront .
Factor in time value of money , and that well is seriously underwater .
Besides the back-of-crumpled-envelope quality of that calculation , there are other reasons a producer might keep drilling anyway .
Rigs are often @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for example , Helmerich & Payne Inc. , a leading provider , reported roughly a third of its U.S. onshore rig fleet operated under fixed-term contracts at the end of March .
Contracted pipeline space , too , must be paid for whether or not barrels flow through it .
Taking a company ’ s activity down to zero is also traumatic for workers and , like a shut-in well , makes it harder to eventually crank back up .
Hedges , meanwhile , shield against low spot prices and represent oil and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , hedges could be settled for cash ; it ’ s not like anyone is screaming for more of the actual stuff these days .
Rig and pipeline contracts can also be renegotiated ( an order from the Texas Railroad Commission could have helped on that front , but still ) .
And the difficulty of going into hibernation must be set against the implacable demands of low oil prices .
On that note , another rationale for continuing to drill is an expectation of oil and gas prices recovering reasonably soon .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ such as Diamondback Energy Inc. ( which is reducing but not suspending drilling ) , have indicated they could increase activity again if oil gets back above $ 30 a barrel ( it was trading around $ 25 Monday morning ) .
Because shale output is very front-loaded , movements in near-term prices matter a lot .
For instance , using my basic example above , while the economics don ’ t work at flat $ 30 oil , assuming oil rises to $ 40 in year two and then $ 50 from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ return .
Those prices actually lag the consensus forecast , which averages $ 46 for 2021 .
On the other hand , that consensus stood at $ 58 only two months ago , so it ’ s fair to say expectations can change in the middle of an unprecedented oil shock .
The current list of unknowns encompasses how quickly people resume something like normality even after lockdowns ease ; whether Covid-19 inflicts a second wave ; how long the glut of oil inventory building now lasts ; and how quickly Saudi Arabia @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The rational thing to do is to wait for higher prices — indeed , conserving barrels , rather than pushing them into a glutted market , is a prerequisite for those higher prices .
As EOG Resources Inc. said Friday , oil kept underground is “ low-cost storage.
” E & P companies carrying more debt ( and there are more than a few ) may be stuck on the treadmill .
Covenants demand cash flow today even if that means destroying value over time .
But this is a reminder of why @ @ @ @ @ @ @ first place : managing to production rather than value , and thereby dragging down prices by putting more sub-economic oil onto the market .
The Saudi-Russian spat in early March was a warning the market won ’ t just absorb that from here on .
Breaking the existing shale model , and redirecting cash away from wells toward creditors and shareholders , must be one outcome from all this .
E & P stocks traded at a premium on yield because they weren ’ t valued on yield .
Unlike the majors and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a bet on oil prices .
That rationale was fraying even before Covid-19 , but is especially out of favor now .
The yield spread to the market needs to widen , not just to compete against both other oil stocks and other sectors .
It would also be a tangible sign of fewer dollars heading into drilling .
Like Gallagher said , the world doesn ’ t need any more of the industry ’ s “ product ” right now .
That includes investors .


washingtonpost--2020-05-11--In Week Two of the Big Reopen, Half-Empty Bar Feels Like a Win

The pandemic brought the U.S. economy to an unprecedented , sudden stop — throwing more than 20 million people out of work in just a month .
There ’ s now an intense spotlight on states like Georgia , which are moving early to ease stay-at-home restrictions .
The question is how quickly diners and shoppers will resume old habits — and whether it will prove safe to do so .
At the Marlow ’ s branch in the affluent Atlanta suburb of Johns Creek one afternoon this week , servers wearing masks place a slip of paper on each @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , which patrons can zap with their smart phones to pull up a menu featuring beef tenderloin salad and the Southern staple shrimp and grits .
One server , gesturing with her hands as if pushing away , awkwardly explains to a customer why she was standing three feet away from the booth .
Meanwhile at the bar , two men are talking about the struggles of local hospitals .
They ’ re not wearing masks , but not sitting too close to each other either .
One of them , 67-year-old Bobby @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been gently rebuked by a Marlow ’ s employee for failing to observe the six-foot social distancing standard .
And that helped convince Spann — who has heart and lung conditions putting him in an at-risk group , and is determined to avoid crowds — that he ’ ll be OK at Marlow ’ s .
“ I ’ m not going to be on the beach and be around a thousand damned kids , ” he says .
“ If I get this , I ’ m dead.
” Georgia ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but it ’ s still not expected to peak ( at about 61 deaths per day ) until the end of May , according to one prominent model developed at the University of Washington .
And changes in public rules or behavior can alter the patterns of transmission .
As of Thursday , the number of dine-in customers at Georgia restaurants was still down 94 % from a year earlier , according to an index based on data from online booking service OpenTable .
That ’ s better than the 100 % drop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ but it still shows the mountain ahead for the industry to climb .
Still , Metz — after taking part in countless industry discussions — reckons that by the end of next week , half of the state ’ s restaurants will have reopened .
Even if they ’ re not saying it publicly , “ they ’ re coming.
” Under the new Georgia rules , Marlow ’ s and other restaurants are limited to 10 customers per 500 square feet .
Metz says he ’ s also added filtration systems to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cost between $ 5,000 and $ 10,000 per outlet .
The gradual return of customers over the past week and a half has been encouraging , with occupancy approaching 50 % some nights , Metz says .
Still , “ we need to get to 50 % just to get to break-even .
And we can ’ t survive at break-even.
” Sitting at the Marlow ’ s bar , Lizette Hatcher — who considers herself especially at risk of the virus because of an autoimmune disorder — says she can see both @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debate .
“ I understand everyone ’ s really nervous right now .
But kick-starting the economy ’ s really important .
”

Why did this happen?
Please make sure your browser supports JavaScript and cookies and that you are not blocking them from loading. For more information you can review our Terms of Service and Cookie Policy.


washingtonpost--2020-04-27--Analysis | We Really Weren’t Ready to Work From Home

Among firms with more than $ 1 billion of revenue , a surprisingly small portion — perhaps 10 % — is used to having much of its workforce regularly work remotely , Gartner Inc. analyst Brian Kropp estimates .
Another 40 % has established work-from-home practices , but didn ’ t necessarily have the adequate infrastructure for the current crisis .
The remaining 50 % was unprepared and has been scrambling to catch up with panic buying of services and hardware .
That unpreparedness might help explain the whipsawing attitudes toward those facilitating remote work , not least Zoom Video @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
At first , there was the upswing .
Zoom saw its number of simultaneous users jump from 10 million at the start of the year , to some 200 million by April 1 and 300 million on April 21 .
Then there was the backlash , as a series of companies warned their employees against using Zoom ’ s services .
Daimler AG , the parent of luxury carmaker Mercedes-Benz , cited the software ’ s “ various security gaps ” in a memo reported by Bloomberg News , pointing its staff @ @ @ @ @ @ @ collaboration platform .
Yet a slew of such moves probably has as much to do with companies ’ preparedness for remote working as it does with any deficiencies on Zoom ’ s side .
Employees seemed simply not to know what they were supposed to be using .
Early in the lockdown , it seemed feasible to let employees use a range of different products if it was to be a temporary arrangement .
As the restrictive measures last longer , firms are having to choose between technologies .
Microsoft Teams , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 35 monthly per user .
Scale that to tens or hundreds of thousands of employees , and it becomes a major cost .
You probably don ’ t want to be paying for several duplicate services at once .
Slack Technologies Inc. ’ s experience highlights the unreadiness .
It enjoyed a surge not just in total users ( which includes employees at existing corporate customers ) , but also in new customers — companies that didn ’ t previously use its tools .
Executives are realizing that work-from-home means more than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s creating an opportunity for businesses like Citrix Systems Inc. and Teamviewer AG , which provide so-called virtual private networks that let employees access corporate systems remotely .
They allow you to log onto your work computer from your home laptop , route customer service calls to workers ’ private telephone numbers or run complex applications — all while keeping the data off the public internet .
Citrix enjoyed a 20 % sales jump to $ 861 million in the first quarter .
Investors might otherwise have expected an increase of less than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ analyst Mandeep Singh.Citrix Chief Executive Officer David Henshall said on Thursday that he expects his company to keep benefiting from customers ’ realization that their businesses depend on hundreds and hundreds of applications that need to run on powerful networks if the bulk of employees aren ’ t in the office .
While he warned that doesn ’ t mean Citrix will be immune to the economic downturn , it ’ s going to be harder to put the work-from-home trend back in the bottle when people can go back to the office @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remote working are building out the necessary infrastructure , employees might as well use it .


washingtonpost--2020-04-27--Analysis | Templeton Fund Freeze Leaves a Dangerous Hole

Mutual funds are sieves .
Losses will be felt in the personal balance sheets of mom-and-pop investors .
They will retreat into a shell of risk aversion if they ’ re told they may not be made whole even after a years-long wait .
That won ’ t do .
Just the top 11 nonbank finance firms have $ 8.3 billion of debt maturing by September .
It ’ s optimistic to think refinancing will come from banks when they won ’ t even take cheap funds from the central bank to chase credit risk .
So what needs to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ India will need to accept assets from debt funds to stop a contagion .
Some of these are illiquid bilateral loans masquerading as securities .
There ’ s no public market for them .
Back then , Franklin Templeton ’ s unit holders probably had no idea their fund manager was sitting on practically the entire stock of zero-coupon debentures issued by Yes Capital Ltd. , one of Kapoor family ’ s private investment vehicles .
That was long before Yes , a major deposit-taking institution , became a basket case that was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ government-controlled State Bank of India .
The five funds that were involved in lending to Kapoor are among the six that have been suspended , suggesting that nothing really changed between then and now .
Shadow lenders have borrowed wholesale from debt mutual funds .
This shifting of credit risk away from deposit-taking institutions took place in front of regulators ’ eyes .
Yet they didn ’ t push forward long-pending banking reforms to address the issue .
The crumbling of nonbank lenders , especially those that had been rolling over debt owed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in full public view .
Once again the authorities did too little too late .
By the time they put together a $ 3.5 billion last-mile fund to get stalled housing projects completed , the pandemic broke out .
With the disruption caused by the outbreak , the only way some bonds held by mutual funds will ever be repaid is if the government gives corporate borrowers subsidized credit and loan guarantees to tide them over .
Many have already requested debt moratoriums from banks .
Unless New Delhi offers a decisive backstop @ @ @ @ @ @ @ open up its balance sheet to entities it normally doesn ’ t deal with , including debt mutual funds .
But it must .
The country ’ s shadow banking industry is in mortal danger .
Borrowers from microlenders have lost livelihoods and capacity to repay .
The pandemic shock isn ’ t something the private sector can withstand on its own .
On Monday , the RBI allowed banks access to a $ 6.5 billion , 90-day tap if they lend to mutual funds .
But banks already have ample liquidity .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ advance credit to mutual funds against any less than best-quality corporate paper ?
Anything less , and the lenders would rather go directly to ultimate borrowers and get better sureties , including business owners ’ personal assets .
The British economics writer Walter Bagehot famously said monetary authorities should fight panic by providing liquidity against collateral that ’ s acceptable in normal times .
But there ’ s a possibility that things won ’ t normalize anytime soon , at least not for all borrowers .
The longer the authorities go on flooding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nonbanks that actually need it , the weaker India ’ s recovery will be .
India ’ s banks got into trouble several years ago .
As they retreated from financing credit to nurse their $ 200 billion-plus in bad loans , other institutions stepped in .
The unexpected September 2018 bankruptcy of IL & FS Group , followed by the collapse of several other lenders , unearthed the rot in the shadow banking world , especially where it intersects with a lackluster property market .
The near-complete halt to activity since @ @ @ @ @ @ @ announced a shutdown in March to arrest the spread of the disease is merely the final nail .
When the disease comes under control , there will have to be a reckoning .
Mutual fund trustees must temper managers ’ temptation to generate returns by loading up on illiquid securities .
Rating firms should relearn what AAA means .
Shadow banks have to restrict themselves to originating loans , and selling them on .
All this is for later .
For now , India ’ s central bank needs to mutter an apology @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hole left by Franklin Templeton .


Your Evening Briefing

Bloomberg is mapping the pandemic globally and across America .
For the latest news , sign up for our Covid-19 podcast and daily newsletter .
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said a statewide “ pause ” may be lifted for some regions in mid-May .
Over the weekend , he announced Covid-19 tests would be available in pharmacies all across the state , the hardest hit in America .
On Monday , President Donald Trump was to unveil plans to provide tests to all 50 states , enough to screen at least 2 % of residents .
The administration ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ distributing working tests has been cited as a key reason the U.S. leads the world in coronavirus deaths and infections .
States like New York have been left to fill the gap .
Meanwhile , Trump ’ s aides are urging the quick reopening of businesses despite warnings that such a move would be premature and lead to spikes in infections and deaths .
Former Vice President Joe Biden called on Trump to launch a new public health jobs corps of 100,000 people to assist with testing and contact tracing , as the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for safely reopening the economy .
Trump has joined Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in saying Democratic-leaning states where the most Americans have been infected and died should not get federal aid .
In response , Cuomo has pointed out that most federal tax dollars come from such blue states , while Republican-leaning red states such as Kentucky , where McConnell is from , rake in the most .
Plant shutdowns are leaving Americans dangerously close to seeing meat shortages at grocery stores .
Meanwhile , farmers are facing the likely culling @ @ @ @ @ @ @ iteration of the so-called small business bailout resulted in many big companies getting millions of dollars , many small companies getting nothing at all , and ancient government technology simply crashing .
Now refilled with taxpayer dollars , it may be happening again .
Lenders are being shut out of the system , saying they are being kicked out as they try to process applications on behalf of small-business owners .
The debate about when and whether the world can reopen keeps coming back to testing .
If only we could test everyone @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , we could isolate the ill and everyone else could go back to school , work and life as we once knew it .
Sadly , writes Cathy O ’ Neil in Bloomberg Opinion , that ’ s not quite right .
The prerequisite for reopening is better tests , not just more tests .
Billionaire Bill Gates ’ s foundation is reportedly focusing all of its resources on fighting the coronavirus .
The philanthropist and founder of Microsoft said that the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation , with an endowment exceeding $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ attention ” to the pandemic .


washingtonpost--2020-04-27--Analysis | Deutsche Bank Enjoys a Rare Day in the Sun

In a Sunday-night statement reminiscent of some of Deutsche ’ s most turbulent years , Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing raced out an early glimpse of its earnings .
This time he had some good news for investors .
Revenue — which has been under pressure as the lender shrank — held steady at 6.4 billion euros ( $ 6.9 billion ) , a figure that exceeded even the most optimistic of analyst estimates by a wide margin .
While details on the financials were scant ahead of Deutsche ’ s full earnings release on Wednesday , it seems that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , following their Wall Street peers , who had their best quarter in eight years .
The bank also delivered on its cost-reduction plans , hitting analyst estimates , and it said it remains on track to meet year-end objectives .
But controlling expenses has become much more complicated in the pandemic era .
The spike in revenue from securities trading will normalize now that investors have rebalanced their portfolios .
Deutsche is trying to reposition itself away from parts of the trading business and pivot back to its roots in corporate finance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ remains to be seen whether this can be done successfully — especially at this time .
Sewing had pledged to cut almost 18,000 jobs by 2022 , but last month he paused involuntary departures in view of the coronavirus outbreak and Germany ’ s broader need to protect the economy .
While the bank may not be hiring many people during the pandemic , fewer will want to leave during the worst economic contraction since the 1930s .
The additional cost will put pressure on trader bonuses and the investment needed across the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capital targets too .
Gone is the objective for 12.5 % of common equity Tier-1 capital .
Deutsche expects that key metric of financial strength to fall temporarily below this level , but it didn ’ t say for how long or by how much — other than to say the fall would be modest .
Its leverage ratio target for this year is also being jettisoned .
At 12.8 % , Deutsche is comfortably above its new 10.4 % CET1 requirement , determined by the regulators , but the upheaval caused by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risk .
Relative to its peers , Deutsche sits on one of the largest piles of risky assets to capital , a position that has never been tested to this degree .
Clarity on what Deutsche called a “ series of pending and proposed regulatory adjustments , which could improve the bank ’ s reported CET1 ratio ” might ease concerns .
Analysts aren ’ t expecting the bank to be profitable for the whole of 2020 .
In the meantime , a 500 million-euro credit provision is hardly a bold acknowledgment of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ SpA , which has a similar sized loan book , is taking a 900 million-euro hit in the first quarter .
Regulators have encouraged lenders to go easy on how much they set aside for souring credit , with the European Central Bank suggesting banks can assume an economic rebound this year in their calculations .
Investors might be less sanguine .
More than most European bank bosses , Sewing needs to keep shareholders with him as he tackles the restructuring .
A 13 % bounce in Deutsche ’ s share price on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ difficulty of his mission .


washingtonpost--2020-06-09--Analysis | What Do You Prefer, Nosecco or Prosecco?

While familiar packaged-food brands , such as Kraft macaroni and cheese and Nestle ’ s Hot Pockets , enjoyed a revival during the pandemic , the long-term prospects remain brighter for products that are perceived as healthier .
Just look at the rise of the vegan sausage roll sold at Greggs Plc .
Its arrival prompted the U.K. baker to upgrade its profit forecasts several times in 2019 .
In fact , with the unprecedented focus on health precipitated by the novel coronavirus outbreak , the opportunities for categories such as fake meat , fish and eggs may be even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the U.K. since 2017 , and Les Grands Chais de France , the country ’ s largest independent wine producer responsible for J.P. Chenet and Chemin des Papes wines , wanted to establish a trademark for it .
It was challenged in 2018 by a consortium representing the northeast Italian region where Prosecco is produced , which said the name brought to mind the Italian wine , which is protected by European rules on origin .
The French company argued the name was never meant to rival Prosecco in the U.K .
Instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drink ’ s alcohol-free quality while playing on the fact that it wasn ’ t “ sec , ” or dry , like the Italian wine , but rather sweet .
But the U.K. ’ s Intellectual Property Office found in favor of the Italian producers , deciding that in the minds of consumers the name Nosecco evoked the hugely popular Prosecco .
There was a serious risk , it said , that consumers would believe the drink was in fact non-alcoholic Prosecco .
Les Grands Chais de France is now appealing the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ company is not alone in facing delicate marketing issues when it comes to new food categories .
It has long been debated whether dairy alternatives can be classed as milk .
In Sweden , that ’ s culminated in a “ milk war ” between the country ’ s dairy industry and Oatly , a Swedish manufacturer of oat milk .
There ’ s no clear winner , but the skirmish doesn ’ t seem to have done Oatly any harm : Oat milk is hot around the world right now .
In @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rise of meat substitutes , some U.S. states , including Arkansas and Mississippi , have sought to restrict the use of terms such as burgers and dogs .
( Mississippi now allows plant-based food makers to use some terms so long as they carry modifiers such as meat-free . )
Naming battles will likely crop up between competing alternative-food makers , too .
Just last week , Nestle SA , the world ’ s biggest food company , said it would rename its Incredible plant-based patties as the Sensational burger .
The move @ @ @ @ @ @ @ injunction filed by Impossible Foods Inc. , citing a trademark infringement .
Nestle said it will appeal the ruling .
What is clear is that producers of everything from lupin burgers to non-alcoholic gin must work hard to stand out .
While there is huge growth to be had , the competition will be stiff .
Traditional food companies and brewers are piling in , too .
Drinks giant Diageo Plc last year acquired a majority stake in Seedlip , the non-alcoholic spirit maker .
There is no doubt that Nosecco was a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has ended up in a protracted legal wrangle .
Amid the shifting landscape for alternatives , producers will need to be innovative and creative with their branding .
The Vegetarian Butcher , the meat-substitute maker acquired by Unilever Plc in December 2018 , is perhaps a good example .
It ’ s not always easy to get the message across that a dish or drink is a vegan or non-alcoholic version of an old favorite , and in an appealing way , but marketers will need to dig deep .
Otherwise , as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a fight on their hands , and that ’ s not very appetizing for anyone .


washingtonpost--2020-06-06--Analysis | WhatsApp Gets a Raw Deal in Payments

While Facebook Inc. deserves scrutiny globally for providing a platform for hate speech , voter manipulation and dissemination of untruth , cashless transfers is one area where WhatsApp can be a force for good .
That ’ s especially true in emerging economies like India .
As the Covid-19 lockdown has underscored , hundreds of millions of rural migrant workers in urban centers lack both liquid savings and a state-provided safety net .
Increasingly ubiquitous smartphones can bring vulnerable citizens the financial security that bank branches can ’ t supply .
To restrain WhatsApp is a waste of the infrastructure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the country set up a shared interface linking more than 150 participating banks .
An account holder in any of them can send or receive money to anybody else on the network .
The two parties don ’ t need to know anything more than each other ’ s mobile number or a virtual ID .
From Google to Walmart , any app can tap the common protocol , which already supports transactions worth more than 10 % of gross domestic product .
Google is so impressed it wants the U.S. Federal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ WhatsApp needs a nod from the regulator , the National Payments Corporation of India , to throw open the switch .
The first roadblock was the central bank ’ s requirement that payment data be stored only locally .
That hurdle has been crossed , but the service remains restricted .
In February , a little-known think tank filed a lawsuit , asking India ’ s Supreme Court to block payments on WhatsApp “ since it ’ s known to have failed to secure sensitive data of its users.
” In an affidavit @ @ @ @ @ @ @ petition by the “ busybody ” was not maintainable .
Legal challenges in India can drag on endlessly .
The popularity of the messaging app , which has more than 400 million Indian users , is its biggest strength and its worst enemy .
Take pinBox , which wants to introduce digital micro-pensions to the masses across Asia and Africa .
It ’ s waiting eagerly for WhatsApp payments .
The combination of financial and digital illiteracy can be a showstopper ; it ’ s much easier to promote a saving culture on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of their waking hours , anyway .
The familiarity with the medium cuts both ways .
Recently , the service was used to accuse Muslims in India of deliberately transmitting Covid-19 , triggering assaults on the minority community .
But then , disinformation isn ’ t limited either to WhatsApp or India .
TikTok , the most-downloaded app during the pandemic , had posts claiming that 5G technology helps spread the virus , fueling violence against telecommunications workers and equipment across the U.K. and Europe .
In India , the user-video platform has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that promotes acid attacks on women .
While regulators should push Zuckerberg to keep making social media safer , for instance by restricting message forwarding , they need to be pragmatic when it comes to online payments .
China is far ahead .
But that market , in the pincer grasp of Alipay and WeChat Pay wallets , isn ’ t open to U.S. firms .
Besides , the scope for replacing cash is bigger in India , where 14 % of money supply is still currency in circulation , a figure that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The size of the opportunity is why India is attracting attention .
Facebook recently took a 10 % stake in Mukesh Ambani ’ s Jio Platforms Ltd. for $ 5.7 billion .
Jio ’ s 4G network is India ’ s biggest , with nearly 400 million customers .
Ambani , Asia ’ s richest man , wants to connect a billion-plus buyers with neighborhood stores , combining physical and digital retail .
Payments via WhatsApp will be a way to achieve that link , with brands giving discounts and financiers offering in-store @ @ @ @ @ @ @ model .
Others will catch up .
Amazon.com Inc. is planning to take a $ 2 billion stake in Bharti Airtel Ltd. , Jio ’ s closest rival , Reuters has reported .
According to the Financial Times , Google is exploring an investment in Vodafone Group Plc ’ s struggling India wireless business .
( Vodafone Idea Ltd. said there ’ s no such proposal before its board . )
The rising global interest in digitizing the billion-plus-people economy could be sustained , as it coincides with what may be a long-drawn @ @ @ @ @ @ @ West .
Although India has recognized privacy to be a fundamental right , giving grounds for legal challenges against tech firms , it has yet to enact a data protection law .
That ’ s where the focus has to be , not on limiting competition .
The central bank needs to strike a balance between safeguarding financial stability and encouraging innovation such as “ account aggregators , ” who compile and share financial data with the consent of users looking for loans or insurance .
With most manufacturing and services in disarray @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s best chance to break out of the Covid gloom .


washingtonpost--2020-04-24--Trump Signs $484 Billion Package to Rescue Small Businesses

The new law would revive a small-business loan program that ran out of money after being overwhelmed by demand , deliver tens of billions of dollars in aid to health-care providers and provide $ 25 billion to expand U.S. testing for infection by the virus .
An enduring shortage of testing has hamstrung the government ’ s response and become a point of tension between Trump and U.S. governors .
Highlighting the depth of the economic collapse , lawmakers are already discussing the next phase of virus rescue legislation .
The Labor Department reported Thursday that another 4.4 million people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the total since March 14 to 26.5 million .
But no further action is expected until at least next month , with Republicans and Democrats divided over how much more aid to provide and where it should go .
Congress is not scheduled to be in session until May 4 .
The newest measure is the fourth coronavirus-related spending package since early March , totaling almost $ 3 trillion -- an unprecedented amount of federal assistance that far surpasses the sums doled out following the 2008 financial crisis .
The law would would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ loans under the Paycheck Protection Program , which provides forgivable loans to small business that keep employees on the payroll for eight weeks .
It sets aside $ 30 billion of the loans for banks and credit unions with $ 10 billion to $ 50 billion in assets , and another $ 30 billion for even smaller institutions .
The measure also includes $ 60 billion in loans and grants under a separate Economic Injury Disaster Loan program , and makes farms and ranches eligible for the loans .
Hospitals could receive $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ aimed at those in rural areas .
Debate over the next round of stimulus has centered on whether states should a federal bailout .
Several states that were already struggling with high public employee pension costs are facing even greater budget crunches due to the pandemic response .
Governors from both political parties and congressional Democrats have demanded that state aid be included in a future assistance package , but Republicans in Congress have balked .
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell this week suggested that states should pursue bankruptcy protection rather than receive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route , ” McConnell said Wednesday on the syndicated Hugh Hewitt radio show .
“ It ’ s saved some cities , and there ’ s no good reason for it not to be available.
” Hewitt had pointed out that blue states such as California , Illinois and Connecticut had given too much to public employee unions and therefore should not get federal rescue money .
Trump told reporters on Thursday he had spoken to McConnell , senators and governors about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ if we can help states , we ’ re always going to help states.
” “ It is interesting that the states that are in trouble do happen to be blue .
It is interesting , you know , if you look around .
I mean , the states that seem to have the problem happen to be Democrat , ” he said .
The latest rescue package passed the House on Thursday with an overwhelmingly bipartisan 338-5 vote , albeit under unusual circumstances .
Lawmakers wore masks while casting their votes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ groups in order to maintain social distancing precautions .


washingtonpost--2020-04-24--Tech Sector Pushes Stocks Higher; Oil Extends Gain: Markets Wrap

The most important news stories of the day , curated by Post editors and delivered every morning .
By signing @ @ @ @ @ Terms of Use and Privacy Policy


washingtonpost--2020-04-24--Analysis | What’s Pulling at the Hong Kong Dollar’s Peg

Often it ’ s interest rates , especially when local ones don ’ t move in tandem with the U.S. For example , when interbank rates on the Hong Kong dollar -- known as Hibor -- remain elevated as the Federal Reserve reduces borrowing costs , it becomes more attractive for investors to buy the Hong Kong currency against the greenback .
The gap between Hibor and the U.S. currency ’ s Libor has been around the widest since 1999 since March , helping to push the Hong Kong dollar to HK $ 7.75 for the first time since early @ @ @ @ @ @ @ April to sell the city ’ s dollars to prevent a break of the peg .
It ’ s because of tight liquidity .
The HKMA bought the Hong Kong dollar in 2018 and 2019 , when the popular carry trade used to be shorting the local currency against the higher-yielding greenback .
The operations helped shrink the aggregate balance -- an indicator of interbank cash pool -- by 70 % to the lowest level since the global financial crisis .
That coincides with an increase in lenders ’ loan-to-deposit ratio , leaving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hands .
That ’ s why Hong Kong ’ s Hibor can ’ t fall as quickly as the U.S. interest rates even though the city essentially imports the Fed ’ s monetary policy .
The tighter liquidity also amplifies the volatility in interest rates , leading to dramatic spikes in borrowing costs when one-off factors , such as initial public offerings , lock up a large sum of funds .
No .
One thing about intervention from the HKMA is that it often moves Hibor in the opposite direction .
When it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong end of the band , the operation boosts liquidity in the financial system and lowers borrowing costs .
That in turn makes the long-Hong Kong dollar carry trade less appealing for speculators .
Authorities also have enough liquidity to act , with more than $ 430 billion of foreign reserves .
There ’ s also another HK $ 1 trillion ( $ 129 billion ) of exchange fund bills outstanding , which are debt issued by the HKMA , so they could inject cash by allowing that debt to mature or reduce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ expand its balance sheet by printing local currency .
What could complicate matters would be a repeat of the massive speculative attack on the currency seen during the Asian financial crisis in 1997 .
Even then , the central bank prevailed .
And of course Hong Kong has a special connection with China , which has the world ’ s largest foreign-exchange reserves at more than $ 3 trillion .
The HKMA may have to print money if intervention fails to bring down borrowing costs and the long-Hong Kong dollar strategy remains popular @ @ @ @ @ @ @ risks seeing “ flooding liquidity , ” which could lead to higher asset prices due to inflationary pressures , according to Ken Cheung , chief Asian foreign-exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. Then , the HKMA may need to sell exchange fund bills to withdraw cash supply , with itself shouldering the financing costs .
In many ways it does .
Every time the Fed changes its benchmark rate , the HKMA adjusts its base rate , but with little effect .
That ’ s because the base rate -- the one at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ banks -- is higher than short-term Hibor even after two reductions in March .
So it ’ s hardly relevant when lenders are able to find cheaper funding in the interbank market .
The HKMA ’ s most recent cut to the base rate in March was 64 basis points , compared with a reduction of 100 basis points by the Fed .
Analysts say it could last through the second quarter .
The HKMA ’ s intervention barely nudged Hibor , with its premium over the U.S. Libor remaining wide at around @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and the Hong Kong dollar still trading near HK $ 7.75 .
This suggests the long carry trade is still appealing .
The policy makers have to boost the aggregate balance to as high as HK $ 150 billion , a level unseen since 2018 , before the interest rates fall low enough to chill the carry trade , analysts say .
The gauge stood at HK $ 63.9 billion as of April 23 .
First and foremost , the currency peg is considered an anchor for financial stability and the economy .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ because the currency is relatively safe .
At the same time , the city ’ s property market , one of the world ’ s most expensive , is showing signs of cooling off with high borrowing costs and concerns over economic growth .
A double blow of months-long anti-government protests and the coronavirus pandemic has Hong Kong ’ s economy bracing for another year of recession .
So the potential chaos that breaking the foreign-exchange peg would bring is probably the last thing policy makers would want to see .


washingtonpost--2020-06-07--Analysis | AstraZeneca Ponders a Huge $240 Billion Gilead Gamble

AstraZeneca approached Gilead last month , Bloomberg News reported Sunday , although there are no formal talks underway .
Gilead discussed the possible tie-up with its advisers but isn ’ t interested in selling to a larger rival right now , Bloomberg News added .
From a purely strategic perspective , the attractions of this deal to AstraZeneca aren ’ t obvious .
It already has an enviable pipeline of drugs in oncology , cardiovascular and respiratory disease .
And it presented the most impressive data at the American Society of Clinical Oncology ’ s latest conference , says Bloomberg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Astra is helping Oxford University develop a coronavirus vaccine .
It says it won ’ t profit from that during the pandemic , assuming the project is successful .
But an annual jab against Covid-19 could be a source of future revenue .
These prospects are reflected in a share price that ’ s jumped 6 % this year in dollar terms ; Bloomberg ’ s global pharmaceuticals index has risen by slightly more than 2 % .
In sterling , AstraZeneca ’ s shares are 11 % higher in 2020 .
By @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t so strong .
Its best hope , the inflammation drug filgotinib , will enter the market after several direct competitors .
Its efforts in fatty liver disease have been a disappointment so far , and the previous management team ’ s expensive gamble on acquiring Kite Pharma , a specialist in cancer cell therapy , hasn ’ t paid off .
Daniel O ’ Day , Gilead ’ s new chief executive officer , has also acquired cancer biotech Forty Seven Inc. and struck a research partnership with Galapagos NV , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ fruit .
The U.S. drugmaker does , however , have steady cash flow from its leading HIV drug franchise , plus a strong balance sheet .
These would help address a relative weak spot for AstraZeneca : its finances .
Its net debt is already roughly twice Ebitda ( a measure of yearly profit ) .
The group is having to sell stakes in promising drugs and bring in partners to co-fund research and development .
Last year ’ s collaboration agreement with Japan ’ s Daiichi Sankyo Co. to combat breast cancer @ @ @ @ @ @ @ increase that looked designed to keep AstraZeneca ’ s debt under control as much as support drug development .
In corporate finance terms , swapping Astra ’ s highly rated stock for shares in a cash-generating company like Gilead makes some sense .
What ’ s more , the larger a drugmaker ’ s sales , the more resources it can devote to R & D .
The sheer scale of combining the two science teams ought to aid future drug discovery .
And yet , are these potential gains worth attempting such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ let alone in the middle of a pandemic ?
If AstraZeneca needs cash and wants to exploit its rising share price , it could just sell a small stake in itself to stock market investors .
Both sides have good reason to question the durability of each other ’ s current market values .
Gilead ’ s new management should be wary of taking AstraZeneca ’ s shares as payment after their recent jump .
The U.K. company trades on 21 times 2021 expected earnings , against Gilead ’ s 12 times .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ profit will take time .
Pascal Soriot , the AstraZeneca boss who rebuffed an approach from Pfizer Inc. in 2014 , should likewise be wary that Gilead ’ s stock price might suffer if remdesivir disappoints .
There ’ s some logic to a combination .
But it ’ s not clear that either side needs this deal half enough to divert them from the job in hand .
Chris Hughes is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering deals .
He previously worked for Reuters Breakingviews , as well as the Financial Times and @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-06-07--Analysis | The Office Isn’t Dead. It’s Just Convalescing

My initial reaction at being told to stay home in January was panic .
With two teenage daughters about to start online schooling and a husband who would also need to work from home , I struggled to see how our crowded 47th-floor apartment would cope .
I ’ d had a taste already , when the office became all but inaccessible for several days during the height of Hong Kong ’ s protests last year , so I knew what we were facing .
Over the following , fractious few months , I have jostled for space on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ girls , and tussled over the yoga mat — a crucial stretching prop for laptop-induced shoulder strains , as well as an essential accessory for online PE classes .
Somewhere along the line , I grew to like it .
I ’ ll miss the home-work experience , when it finally ends ( like many other companies in Hong Kong , our return is on a split-team basis , so we aren ’ t back at the office full-time yet ) .
The family has bonded more tightly as a result .
I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rhythm , acquiring some admittedly unhealthy habits along the way — such as snacking on Cheetos , bingeing on TV news channels , and reading the obituaries .
I ’ m in the minority , though .
We ’ re fortunate in having more living space than most .
In a city such as Hong Kong , which is densely packed with tiny apartments , it ’ s simply not viable for many people to work from home indefinitely .
The average apartment size is 40 square meters ( 430 square feet ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ York City , according to Jones Lang LaSalle Inc .
Many employees just don ’ t have the room to set up a home office .
And living in such cramped quarters , they need to get out regularly .
The cost-benefit equation for Hong Kong is skewed .
With urban areas being closely packed and the subway system efficient , getting to the office is quick and easy for most people .
It may be a different story in the U.S. , where cities sprawl into the suburbs , commute times may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ often less reliable .
Or in Asian metropolises such as Mumbai , which is densely packed but plagued with horrendous traffic congestion and a more than 150-year-old train network that make suburban working attractive .
That ’ s not to suggest that Hong Kong will escape any long-term impact from Covid .
Macquarie Group Ltd. and Nomura Holdings Inc. are among companies that have already decided to cut space in the city ’ s skyscrapers .
Other financial services firms can be expected to follow .
Still , there are many office jobs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
At most , 30 % of bank employees in the city can work from home , Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Francis Chan estimates .
“ In industries that thrive on information flow and speed , like sales and trading , you may see back offices and compliance work from home but traders will likely have to go back even if they already have three screens at home , ” said Parijat Banerjee , a financial services consultant at Singapore-based Greenwich Associates .
In any case , most people don ’ t want to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Holdings Plc analysts James Pomeroy and Davey Jose wrote in a report titled “ Leaving the City.
” They just don ’ t want to be there all the time .
That broad conclusion applies across all developed markets where the technology is adequate to enable remote working , Pomeroy said .
Ultimately , offices are more than just a place to do business — like the cities that surround them , they are meeting points for social and cultural exchanges .
Humans are social animals , and we need more contacts than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s a thought that resonated with me this week as I surveyed the near-deserted pantry at Bloomberg ’ s central Hong Kong offices , a space that was typically heaving with people and animated conversations before the pandemic .
A return to normality can ’ t come soon enough .


washingtonpost--2020-01-30--Analysis | Tea Time Rings at Unilever

Analysis | Tea Time Rings at Unilever

Tackling tea , where demand has shifted away from the traditional black beverage to flavorful herbal options , is a good start .
The unit , including its operations in emerging markets , generates annual sales of about 3 billion euros ( $ 3.3 billion ) .
Martin Deboo , an analyst at Jefferies , estimates it could be worth about 6 billion euros , assuming a multiple of two times sales .
Jope , a long-time Unilever veteran , should have scrutinized Unilever ’ s portfolio earlier in his tenure that began just over a year ago .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the nettle , he should go further .
His predecessor Paul Polman sold the margarine and spreads arm in the wake of the $ 143 billion approach from Kraft Heinz Co. three years ago .
But since then meaningful disposals in the division have stalled The food and refreshments unit as a whole generates about 20 billion euros a year of sales , and could have an enterprise value of about 60 billion euros , according to Deboo .
Selling it off would leave Unilever concentrated on the household and personal care businesses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lifting the company ’ s growth rate , and its valuation .
But such a chunky disposal would require a buyer with a big appetite .
Kraft Heinz , already highly leveraged , would struggle .
Private equity firms may be interested , but it would still be a large transaction , likely requiring more than one player to join forces .
So a more piecemeal approach looks sensible .
Other disposal candidates beyond tea are dressings , with annual sales of of about 3 billion euros ; savory sauces , stocks and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ revenue of 6 billion euros ; and ice cream , which generates about 7 billion euros of sales .
While still sizable deals , they are not impossible for a buy-out group to digest .
As my colleague Chris Hughes and I have argued , food businesses may be expanding more slowly , but their stable cash flows can support borrowings , and there is scope to lift margins .
Unilever shares , which rose as much as 2 % in London on Thursday , are still above their level at the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ February 2017 .
But they are at a significant discount to rival Nestle SA .
Its CEO , Mark Schneider , is already doing many of the things that Jope should , selling off underperformers for good prices and recycling the proceeds into focused acquisitions .
As I have long argued , Kraft Heinz isn ’ t in a position to come back .
But an activist investor might be tempted to weigh in .
At current valuations , the prospect of a breakup may be more appealing to a hedge fund than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it would be good for Jope to share a brew with some willing private equity buyers .
Otherwise he might find it ’ s an aggressive investor he ’ s bringing closer .
That would make for a far less cosy cuppa .


washingtonpost--2020-01-30--Analysis | Tesla Racks Up Another Record Year (and Another Loss)

As with the previous quarter , the dissonance between the mouse-sized number at the bottom line and the elephantine market reaction is deafening , especially given the stock-price surge during the intervening period .
Consider , for example , that since Tesla reported full-year results for 2018 a year ago , its market cap has increased by $ 51 billion ( $ 63 billion if you count Wednesday ’ s immediate after-market action ) .
In the meantime , Tesla ’ s annual vehicle sales increased by 50 % , revenue increased by 14 % — and GAAP net losses @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 976 million to $ 862 million .
Indeed , just looking at the fourth quarter , vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployments hit records .
Yet revenue growth was just 2.2 % , year over year , and net income fell 25 % .
It ’ s worth noting that the $ 105 million of earnings was more than accounted for by the $ 133 million of regulatory credits sold in the quarter .
As for the $ 1 billion of free cash flow Tesla reported , more than half is accounted for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ capital swing and $ 204 million of “ other ” cash from operations that await some 10K-filing details .
As ever , Tesla bulls are less focused on small earnings and the sharp slowdown in growth , and more on the promise of what comes next .
From that perspective , tiny net profits on record deliveries represent progress rather than dissonance .
Tesla said it would exceed 500,000 vehicle deliveries this year , including the new Model Y , and boost energy-product deployments by at least 50 % .
Limited volumes of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ planned .
Yet Tesla continues to caveat its expectations of positive free cash flow and GAAP net incomes with the “ temporary exceptions ” caused by the launch and ramp-up of new products .
The current quarter got additional caveats on the earnings call , centered on seasonal effects and , of course , coronavirus-related impacts .
It has been interesting to watch in recent months as some analysts have raced to catch up with the stock price by tweaking their targets with this or that justification ; a big future earnings uplift @ @ @ @ @ @ @ there ( not the first time we ’ ve seen this happen ) .
At $ 650 , the after-market price is pretty much divorced from any reasonable underlying math .
A multiple of forecast GAAP earnings for the year of 275 times is all but meaningless .
Tesla has been a “ terminal value ” stock for so long , in the sense that its price rests implicitly on long-term profit expectations .
But it ’ s worth thinking about the numbers for a second .
As of Wednesday evening , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ net loss of almost $ 5 a share last year to a profit of almost $ 2.40 in 2020 and then growing at more than 100 % , compounded , through 2023 .
Looking out 10 years , I wondered what sort of earnings Tesla would need in 2029 to justify its stock price , assuming its terminal value in that year accounted for half the current market cap .
At a 10 % cost of capital , it works out to just over $ 200 per share — or an 86-fold increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ earnings .
( 1 ) CEO Elon Musk summed this all up near the start of Wednesday evening ’ s call with the question , “ Where will we be in 10 years ?
” Its rhetorical power can be seen in the way investors reset the clock as each set of full-year results passes by .
( 1 ) This exercise assumes earnings as a proxy for free cash flow .
I took the current consensus forecast for 2023 , $ 21.61 per share , and then calculated the growth rate through @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” , discounted at 10 % , added up to half the share price of $ 650 ( which is where it reached in after-market trading on Wednesday ) .
There is no real rule of thumb on what proportion of the company ’ s value should be accounted for by the terminal value .
So 50 % is just my assumption , though it would seem reasonable for a company that will have been listed for 20 years at that point .
Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ editor of the Wall Street Journal ’ s Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times ’ Lex column .
He was also an investment banker .


washingtonpost--2020-01-30--Analysis | When China’s Market Reopens, the Wild Guessing Games Begin

So far , China has confirmed about 7,000 cases , but the actual number — including those in the incubation stage — could have already exceeded 44,000 .
As for the stock market , the world has turned upside down since its last trading day on Jan. 23 , when only 830 infected cases were confirmed .
The 3.1 % correction of the benchmark Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index that day could just be the beginning of a long way down .
Unlike the U.S. , China is prone to deeply bearish slides .
In 2015 , its blue-chip index @ @ @ @ @ @ @ market value in just three months .
In 2018 , it tanked 25 % .
Seen in that light , last year ’ s 36 % gain , propelled in part by record foreign portfolio inflows , is fragile .
By comparison , the U.S. has endured only eight bear markets since 1926 , and quickly rebounded after a dip in December 2018 .
To avert another rout , Beijing needs to prove its sprawling bureaucracy still works .
In 2003 , China entered the SARS episode with full economic steam , so @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any hiccups once the number of infections plateaued .
But this time , with the economy in a sharp slowdown , all eyes will be on Beijing , and whether it can muster the resources to quarantine those infected and control the disease .
The government is flexing its muscles .
Wuhan , the epicenter of the outbreak , is frantically building hospitals that will open in just days ; thousands of doctors — a scarce resource in China — have been dispatched .
Municipal governments have set aside more than 20 billion @ @ @ @ @ @ @ combat the virus , according to local reports , on top of billions the Ministry of Finance is spending .
If any country can fight a health crisis , China ’ s strong-armed approach puts it at an advantage .
But how about the rest of the machine ?
The People ’ s Bank of China was noticeably unwilling to cut interest rates last year and only pledged liquidity for next week in one terse sentence , buried in a short notice .
When China reopens Monday , trading won ’ t be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ how many major markets close for more than one week at a time ?
Don ’ t be surprised if margin calls , which in turn propel further selloffs , will once again confound officials .
Often , a stock market ’ s performance has little to do with how fast an economy grows — just look at the world ’ s top performer , the U.S. Chinese investors have already come to terms with a broad-based slowdown , and have been piling into companies that are industry consolidators or could benefit from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ re not prepared for an epidemic and the system shutdown that could ensue .
More than ever , China ’ s bureaucratic system matters for financial markets .


washingtonpost--2020-01-29--Analysis | Small Weapons Are the Most Potent in Virus Fight

Yang Zhongyi , a 53-year-old woman in Wuhan with feverish symptoms , has been unable to get full-time admission to hospitals or testing in the city for two weeks but has been put on drips in unquarantined areas in four separate hospitals in the city , according to a Reuters report this week .
It said she spends her days queuing for treatment .
Hospitals are meant to be places where disease is cured — but they can also be where it ’ s most effectively propagated .
That ’ s particularly the case with coronaviruses : The 2015 outbreak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Korea took place almost entirely within healthcare settings , with just a handful of transmissions outside of hospitals .
About a fifth of people who caught Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome worldwide were healthcare workers .
That share rises further if you include patients who were infected in hospitals and clinics .
At present , Wuhan ’ s hospitals show many signs of being overwhelmed .
All the 14 patients in an infectious disease ward at Wuhan Union Hospital were healthcare workers at the hospital itself , state-owned CGTN said in a recent video @ @ @ @ @ @ @ system is riddled with long wait lists , shortages , and poor equipment because of funding constraints , ” Bingwei Sun of Jiangsu University wrote in a 2016 article in the American Journal of Infection Control .
“ Hospital wards have become breeding grounds for microbial pathogens , with increased risk of infection.
” Hand-washing with water and alcohol , air filtration to clean out airborne infections , and provision of triage centers to separate healthy from unhealthy people is critical to minimizing risks , according to Professor Anjali Joseph , a specialist @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Architecture in South Carolina .
“ There should be emergency procedures in place to identify and isolate any potential cases so they don ’ t mix with healthy people , ” she wrote by e-mail .
“ It is critical to contain this in the early stages.
” There are some positive signs .
Meeting guidelines on hand-washing is generally pretty good in Hubei province , according to a 2017 study , with compliance rates of between 67 % in public hospitals and 79 % in private facilities .
That ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ improvement on levels of around 48 % found in a 2015 study of eight U.S. hospitals and the 24 % found in an earlier study of one Hubei hospital .
In videos circulating on social media , healthcare workers in public areas appear to all be wearing gowns and gloves to protect themselves , too .
Isolation and ventilation may be more of an issue , since it can ’ t be solved just by distributing hand sanitizers and gowns .
In China , “ most hospital wards have poor air quality and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2016 study by Wenlong He , an academic at Tianjin Medical University .
Some 2,300 of the extra beds planned for Wuhan will be in two hospitals being built in the space of a fortnight on the outskirts of the city , modeled on the Xiaotangshan facility put up in Beijing during the 2003 SARS outbreak .
It ’ s possible that those structures will help .
Designing a facility from scratch makes it easier to implement useful hygiene measures that don ’ t exist in normal hospitals , such as the segregated @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disinfection areas that were built at Xiaotangshan .
Still , it ’ s well known in the construction industry that you can only finish major projects on tight deadlines if you cut corners — and it ’ s in those corners that the greatest risks of contamination lurk .
For all Xiaotangshan ’ s apparent success , SARS was already well into its normal seasonal decline by the time it was opened in early May of 2003 .
Each infection was producing an average of 0.5 new cases at that point , meaning @ @ @ @ @ @ @ own accord , according to a 2008 study .
Wuhan ’ s new hospitals will be fighting this outbreak at its most intense .
That ’ s a whole lot more challenging .
Completing such a large project so quickly is an impressive feat of construction — but it ’ s in the small details of hygiene that this fight will be won .


washingtonpost--2020-01-30--Analysis | What You Need to Know About China’s Virus Outbreak

It has been described as “ insidious ” because a large portion of infected people are well enough to go about their daily business , potentially spreading it to others .
The number of confirmed cases topped 7,800 in just two months -- the majority in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province .
( The SARS epidemic topped out at 8,096 cases after running more than a year . )
Also , a fifth of diagnosed cases have been severe , and many people have died .
As of late January the mortality rate for the virus was about 2 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ reliable in the early stages of an outbreak .
It ’ s likely the virus has caused only mild or no symptoms in a large number of people .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
There ’ s growing recognition of the role of coronaviruses in severe cases of pneumonia .
The World Health Organization says that new coronaviruses emerge periodically in different areas globally , and several known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t infected humans .
They tend to morph and mutate , which means the level of risk they pose can change the longer they circulate in a humans .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
Various studies have found that 2019-nCov is at least 70 % similar in its genetic makeup to the SARS virus but “ appears clinically milder ” in terms of severity and fatality rate .
With SARS , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases died .
A related virus , known as MERS-CoV , that ’ s been spreading since 2012 , has led to death in 34 % of the 2,499 cases reported .
By contrast , an estimated 50 million people died in the 1918 influenza pandemic that had a case-fatality ratio of less than 5 % but infected up to a third of the world ’ s population .
Most likely by coming into contact with virus-containing droplets that could be emitted by an infected person ’ s cough and transferred to their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s a theoretical risk that it could spread through fine aerosol particles and feces .
Chinese authorities have said it ’ s possible people who are still incubating the virus and show no symptoms may spread it .
One such case emerged in Germany linked to a company training event that was attended by an employee visiting from China who had no symptoms of disease during her stay .
There have been cases reported where the virus has spread along a four-person chain , indicating that it ’ s more transmissible than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ contagiousness by estimating the number of new cases a person who is infected is likely to generate .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number , is one indicator of how difficult an epidemic is to control .
The preliminary reproduction number of 2019-nCoV is 1.4 to 2.5 , according to the WHO , meaning that every case could infect 1.4 to 2.5 people .
( For comparison ’ s sake , the reproduction number of SARS was 2.76 in Beijing and 3.01 in Guangzhou . )
Neil Ferguson , renowned for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infectious diseases , and his colleagues at Imperial College London estimated the number for 2019-nCoV to be 2.6 , making it similar to SARS and more infectious than flu .
If that ’ s correct , controlling the outbreak would require preventing at least 60 % of cases from spreading to another person .
Another group from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing estimated the number to be 4.08 .
Infections appear to cause a mild illness in children , adolescents and younger adults , and more severe disease in older people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , dry cough and tiredness -- but not the sneezing and runny nose typical of the common cold .
Studies suggest the virus invades cells in the lower respiratory tract and migrates from there to the lungs , causing difficulty breathing and the inflammation and congestion associated with pneumonia .
In an early study , more than a quarter of hospitalized patients developed a potentially fatal complication known as acute respiratory distress syndrome .
Septic shock , respiratory failure and the failure of other organs have also been noted in severe cases .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ older than 60 , many of whom have had chronic illnesses , such as cardiovascular disease or diabetes .
Wuhan , where the virus emerged in early December , is an industrial city of 11 million .
Early attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold , but about 13 of the first 41 cases were found to have no link to it .
Maria Van Kerkhove , head of the Outbreak Investigation Task Force at the Institut Pasteur and an adviser to the WHO , said animal tests @ @ @ @ @ @ @ while some environmental samples were positive .
The viral genome has been sequenced , and these results in conjunction with other reports show that 2019-nCoV is 75 % to 80 % identical to SARS-CoV and even more closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats .
There is always concern when a new pathogen emerges in people because they typically lack immunity to it and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel coronaviruses , those not seen in humans before , represent a particular concern because they have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have sickened thousands of people , like SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
The SARS outbreak that began in late 2002 in Guangdong province is thought to have spread indirectly from bats to humans via masked palm civets and other species in live-animal markets .
The WHO issued a global health alert in March 2003 and didn ’ t declare the outbreak contained until that July .
China ’ s tourism , transportation and retail sectors were heavily hit as people stayed home ; domestic consumption fell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and financial markets .
The epidemic subtracted an estimated 0.8 percentage point from gross domestic product growth in China in 2003 , according to a China Daily report that cited a National Bureau of Statistics official .
A 2003 academic study estimated the global economic cost at close to $ 40 billion or more .
The WHO revised its global risk assessment to high on Jan. 28 .
The U.S. and other countries advised citizens against non-essential travel to China .
Richard Horton , editor of The Lancet medical journal , said the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ care systems .
An early study of the first 41 hospitalized patients in China found 13 ( 32 % ) needed intensive care ; four required invasive mechanical ventilation and two were put on a heart-lung bypass machine in a last-ditch effort to keep them alive .
Six died .
Across Hubei , thousands of people have been hospitalized in isolation wards and hundreds are being treated in intensive care units , creating what officials there have described as an “ extreme , severe and abrupt public health crisis.
” The WHO has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , a designation that can help mobilize international responses , provide more resources and focus government attention .
China ’ s government imposed a quarantine on Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities in the region , a travel ban covering in excess of 50 million people .
Authorities dispatched medical personnel from the military to Wuhan to help out at hospitals .
Patients were isolated to prevent any spread .
Health officials are looking for , screening and monitoring people the patients had contact with .
Hong Kong , the international @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from China , announced travel restrictions from the mainland .
Outside China , airports began screening some arriving passengers for symptoms .
Doctors in China have started using a combination of AbbVie Inc. ’ s HIV drugs ritonavir and lopinavir at hospitals .
A clinical trial is assessing whether the combination , sold under the brand name Kaletra , is more effective in treating patients than an antiviral medicine known as interferon-alpha 2b .
Other medications , including some already on the market for fighting HIV and preventing organ rejection , show promise @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronaviruses .
Pharmaceutical companies including Moderna Inc. and Novavax Inc. say they have begun work on a potential vaccine .
Health officials say a version might be available for the first stages of human testing in as little as three months .
But developing an effective vaccine generally takes years .


washingtonpost--2020-04-29--Analysis | Ryanair Is Right About ‘Crack Cocaine’ Airline Bailouts

He ’ s threatened to go to court to force France and other wealthy countries to share rescue money out more equitably , Bloomberg News reported last week , and he ’ s compared cash-strapped Deutsche Lufthansa AG of behaving like a “ crack cocaine junkie.
” Thanks to the largess of Paris and Berlin , Air France-KLM and Lufthansa could end up with almost 20 billion euros ( $ 21.7 billion ) of taxpayer cash between them , even though they had inferior profit margins and balance sheets prior to this crisis .
It ’ s not just Ryanair @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Consolidated Airlines Group , which owns British Airways , is more profitable than its French and German rivals and it probably won ’ t get anywhere near as much bailout money ( and isn ’ t asking for it ) .
( 2 ) The disjointed way Europe is going about these rescues threatens to distort competition and makes a mockery of the imperative that responsible companies must save for a rainy day .
Ultimately , it ’ s who you know and where you ’ re from that counts .
Last month @ @ @ @ @ @ @ industries overcome a crisis it deems not of their own making — though that ’ s debatable for airlines , which help spread the virus around the world , albeit unwittingly .
As long as they abide by certain conditions , the European Commission is content for governments to replenish whatever cash flows out of the door because of coronavirus restrictions and to recapitalize businesses .
So far it hasn ’ t created a centralized pot of money to finance and adjudicate these rescues more fairly across the European Union , as a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies have to ask their national governments for the cash .
Compared to some weaker European nations , France and Germany have more financial firepower to write big bailout checks and fewer worries about whether the funds they provide will be repaid .
They also appear to have few philosophical qualms about propping up domestic companies , which in turn gives those businesses a remarkable amount of leverage in bailout talks .
Lufthansa has brazenly threatened to seek creditor protection if the details of a more than 8 billion-euro German rescue aren ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the terms of Oslo ’ s support for Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA are severe .
Similarly , Britain says airlines will get help only once they ’ ve exhausted other avenues , including tapping billionaire , tax-haven domiciled shareholders for more cash .
On Tuesday , British Airways warned that it wouldn ’ t be getting a bailout and said as many as 12,000 jobs would be cut .
Unlike in the U.S , most European airlines haven ’ t frittered away their money on share buybacks because they didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ The industry is more fragmented and hence profits have generally been meager .
Barring a few exceptions such as IAG and Ryanair , airlines haven ’ t been flush with cash .
Even before the Covid-19 crisis , Lufthansa had 6.7 billion euros of net debt , a similar amount of pension liabilities plus about 4 billion euros of advance customer payments , much of which it must now refund .
It has about 4.4 billion euros of liquidity left , half as much as IAG .
The market value of the German @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4 billion euros .
It ’ s not surprising that governments want to protect airlines because they provide vital international connections for passengers and trade links .
But they ’ re also heavy polluters .
While Air France-KLM ’ s bailout includes environmental commitments , massive amounts of taxpayer cash are being diverted to propping up a dirty industry whose prospects were starting to look less rosy before the pandemic struck .
Some airlines will go bust , reducing competition , but passenger demand will probably be lower for years .
Long-haul and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ recover as companies worry that it ’ s not safe to put staff on planes .
After being bailed out , Lufthansa and Air France-KLM will have to divert more of what little cash they generate to servicing a bigger debt pile .
No wonder banks and capital markets aren ’ t willing to lend airlines more cash without government guarantees .
Before this crisis , Ryanair ’ s strategy was to expand quickly and drive down fares so that rivals with higher costs would go out of business .
That strategy falls @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when they get into trouble .
The lesson for the famously abrasive O ’ Leary is to devote less time trying to outcompete rivals and more time getting cozy with politicians .


washingtonpost--2020-04-29--Analysis | The $793 Billion Credit Market Recovery Is on Shaky Ground

As ever , investors are desperate for yield , which is driving the improvement .
But with more ugly economic data bound to come , this is an uncertain recovery .
While it looks like the worst is over , another flare-up in virus cases and a return of lockdowns could easily see the market for new bond issues slam shut again and spreads blow out once more .
At least we haven ’ t seen many corporate defaults .
Most companies appear to be pretty well managed and able to survive a recession , even if leveraged .
Helped @ @ @ @ @ @ @ most are finding access to capital that will last them until the end of 2021 .
The relaxation of bank leverage limits should help lenders keep the taps on for solvent company borrowers , and let businesses secure more longer-term finance .
The new-issues market for corporate debt looks solid for now , though companies are having to offer much higher interest rates than before .
More than 730 billion euros ( $ 793 billion ) of new syndicated debt has been raised in Europe this year , a record amount .
Some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have seen their yields fall subsequently .
The junk-bond market is showing signs of life , with three new euro issues from Verisure Holding AB , Netflix Inc. and Merlin Entertainments Ltd .
However , it ’ s inevitable that records will be broken when corporate treasurers are seizing the moment to make sure their companies have enough money to survive .
This is a highly unusual situation , which is backstopped by the central banks .
Furthermore , we haven ’ t really felt the impact of the so-called “ fallen angels @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their investment-grade credit ratings .
Analysts at JP Morgan reckon there will be 100 billion euros of newly junked debt this year .
That might force index funds to sell the bonds , depressing their prices even further and increasing borrowing costs for some big employers .
Corporate issuers will also have to reckon with the avalanche of competing government supply that ’ s headed our way to pay for the huge coronavirus-related spending packages .
If this swallows up investor demand , the yields on corporate debt may have to increase to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pressure on company credit will only be kept at bay with continual quantitative easing and confident investor demand .
As I ’ ve argued before , the central banks need to share the love with junk-rated companies too if the real economy and employment is not to suffer excessively .
For now , the European Central Bank ’ s investment-grade bond buying is making a difference .
Its corporate program is now up to 207 billion euros , an increase of 27 billion euros this year .
It ’ s in the balance @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at the next ECB Governing Council meeting on Thursday to include fallen angels in the pandemic QE program .
If Christine Lagarde follows the U.S. Federal Reserve ’ s lead in opening up to high-yield debt , it could make a significant difference to junk-bond spreads too .
That might reduce further the risk of a euro-zone credit meltdown .


washingtonpost--2020-04-29--Trump Poised to Unveil Bridge Loans for Ailing Oil Companies

Brouillette , during a conference call Tuesday with an industry group , said Mnuchin was leaning toward aid that includes two separate programs -- bridge loans and emergency lending authority through the U.S. Federal Reserve -- designed to help smaller and medium sized companies .
“ This is not going to be a bailout , ” Mnuchin told reporters in the White House Wednesday .
He said a team at both the Treasury and the Energy department are talking with people around the world and are considering “ a lot of different strategies.
” The move comes as companies coping @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been laying off tens of thousands of workers and idling drilling rigs while asking for government assistance as they seek to stave off bankruptcies .
Trump last week vowed to make funds available to oil and gas companies , saying he would “ never let the great U.S. Oil & Gas Industry down.
” Mnuchin said the administration was also exploring the opportunity to store another several hundred million barrels of oil , which would exceed the current physical capacity of the government ’ s Strategic Petroleum Reserve .
The administration has been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , by buying undeveloped oil reserves and making them part of the U.S. emergency stockpile .
Under the approach , the government would effectively pay some domestic drillers to halt production indefinitely -- or at least until prices rebound .
Trump earlier helped broker a deal by top international oil producers to pull nearly 10 million barrels of crude from the market .
Yet demand has collapsed by at least twice that amount and storage tanks will keep filling with crude as long as coronavirus restrictions keep planes grounded and drivers off the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in , some forms of lending would involve it taking a stake in the companies -- a condition oil companies are likely loathe to accept , according to the two people familiar with the discussions .
“ There are some in the industry who are more in need of these types of resources then others , ” Brouillette said in a phone call Tuesday , a recording of which was posted on North Dakota Petroleum Council ’ s website .
The Trump administration has been working to identify oil companies that would be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Street program without being forced to establish a new industry-focused initiative that could be unpopular with the public , said a person familiar with the matter who , like the other people , asked not to be named detailing private deliberations .
Mnuchin earlier this month authorized the Fed to establish a so-called Main Street lending program , aimed at supporting mid-sized businesses with as many as 10,000 employees and less than $ 2.5 billion in revenues .
The Fed has not yet launched the program .
It will purchase as much as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and could buy even more if Mnuchin commits more Treasury funds to backstop the program , which he said he is willing to do .
The Fed will expand the Main Street program , Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday at a press conference , adding that it would add sectors and lending products to address credit needs across the broader economy .
The program bars recipients from using loan proceeds to finance pre-existing debt and places restrictions on the size of loans for businesses with large amounts of debt .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ and medium-sized oil companies from taking advantage of the program to gain “ the short-term liquidity they need to avoid bankruptcy , ” Cruz said in a letter to Mnuchin and Powell last week .


washingtonpost--2020-04-29--Analysis | We’ve Lost Time in the Race for a Covid-19 Cure

Recent trials of hydroxychloroquine , for example , have been criticized for cutting a lot of corners without showing clinically significant effects .
Raoult ’ s test in Marseilles used a small sample size of 42 patients , their enrollment wasn ’ t randomized and one patient who died was excluded from the results .
Subsequent trials elsewhere were also found to be of limited quality .
A review by Birmingham University ’ s Robin Ferner and Oxford University ’ s Jeffrey Aronson found that most hadn ’ t been blinded , meaning those involved knew which treatment was being @ @ @ @ @ @ @ inconsistent treatment procedures , such as the addition of the antibiotic azithromycin , which when combined with hydroxychloroquine can cause dangerous heart problems .
Of the 142 hydroxychloroquine trials registered as of April 14 , only about 35 % were designed to be blinded , the review found.Sacrificing standards for speed hasn ’ t just resulted in a lack of evidence ; it has hampered and delayed follow-up studies .
When the “ Discovery ” mega-study began enrolling patients in March , it immediately hit a big hurdle — patients swayed by headlines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
In the U.S. , one patient who was offered the chance to trial Gilead Sciences Inc. ’ s remdesivir asked for “ Trump ’ s drug ” instead .
The hype around potential treatments has also spurred countries to hoard drugs , hurting their availability.Doctors are understandably in an ethical bind in this pandemic .
The urge to “ try everything ” is strong when patients and their families are visibly suffering .
Yet speed has to be balanced against other trade-offs like patient safety , too .
And the grim truth @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of several drugs could have been conducted by now.This week has brought glimmers of optimism from other trials , though it ’ s still early days .
The Paris region ’ s hospital association announced that a randomized 129-patient trial of tocilizumab ( marketed by Roche Holding AG as Actemra ) launched just a month ago has already shown “ significant ” improvement for Covid-19 sufferers — though the results aren ’ t yet peer reviewed .
On Wednesday , Gilead said positive findings were emerging from a study of remdesivir by the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and Infectious Diseases.There are other ways to accelerate research in a pandemic .
One option is the use of adaptive platform trials , in which several treatments are monitored at the same time so that resources can be shifted toward those that are the most effective , as my colleague Max Nisen has written .
Artificial intelligence can also help .
The University of Pittsburgh is using machine learning to power its own adaptive trial of potential Covid-19 treatments across 40 hospitals .
Even before testing , researchers are being called upon to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quickly , as in one initiative by a European moon-shot foundation called JEDI.And if there is conclusive evidence that a cheap generic drug like hydroxychloroquine works , then the pharmaceutical supply chain may find new ways to meet a rise in demand .
French firm Rondol Industrie is testing the ability of drug-blending machines to make more efficient doses of hydroxychloroquine that would improve absorption into the human body .
The benefits of a lower dose for the same treatment result could include fewer side effects and lower production costs .
It would @ @ @ @ @ @ @ patients with the same quantity of active pharmaceutical ingredient.Without that evidence , though , we will only be wasting time .
Clinical trials are logistically and financially costly , but they ’ re invaluable .
A new pledge by world leaders such as France ’ s Emmanuel Macron and Germany ’ s Angela Merkel to raise $ 8 billion for the development and accessibility of possible treatments for Covid-19 will help .
This is a race without an obvious shortcut .


washingtonpost--2020-05-16--U.S. Cases Up 1.8%; Italy Speeds End of Lockdown: Virus Update

Conte forged an agreement with regional governors to pave the way for relaxing rules that have crippled the euro area @ @ @ @ @ “ We are taking a calculated risk , aware that the contagion curve could rise @ @ @ @ @ reporters at his Rome residence.Businesses including shops , bars , restaurants and barbers can open @ @ @ @ @ and Italians will be able to move within their own region from Monday .
Italy @ @ @ @ @ allow citizens to move across the country starting June 3 .
“ Stores are ready @ @ @ @ @ Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa said during a visit to one of the main shopping @ @ @ @ @ “ We were very disciplined about staying at home to contain the pandemic .
But @ @ @ @ @ the next step .
With the same determination we had to lock down , we @ @ @ @ @ again and seek to resume normality in our life in a new way and with @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-05-16--Analysis | Iceland Is the Perfect Coronavirus Refuge

If there ’ s one destination in particular that might turn into an ideal getaway from Covid-19 , it ’ s Iceland .
The tiny island nation — population 360,000 — has long been known for its stunning landscapes , views of the Northern Lights , lava caves and other vistas featured in shows like Game of Thrones .
Recently it has gained plaudits as a coronavirus case study , having kept its outbreak under control without imposing a messy or draconian lockdown .
And it may very well show the way for countries trying to strike a balance between @ @ @ @ @ @ @ cases .
From the start of the outbreak , Iceland stood out from much of Europe by having a proactive pandemic plan ready and sticking to it .
The country began testing widely for Covid-19 in February , even before its first declared case .
It even tested people who showed no symptoms , partnering with a Reykjavik-based company called DeCODE Genetics to do so .
Iceland has tested more people per capita than anywhere else .
By quarantining and tracing the contacts of positive cases , the country avoided the extremes of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus rip ( in the hope of achieving group immunity ) .
The result is a nation with just 1,802 cases and 10 deaths ; its estimated mortality rate of 0.6 % is lower than that of France , Italy and Sweden .
This isn ’ t to ignore the impact of demographics — Iceland ’ s median age is about 36 , 10 years below Italy ’ s — or the ease of social distancing in a country whose population density is on par with Montana in the U.S .
But @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and testing played a key role .
All of these things are now being brought to bear on tourism .
Rather than seek out special deals or exclusive “ travel bubbles ” with certain countries , Iceland ’ s plan is , from June 15 , to offer all visitors the choice between two-week quarantine or a Covid-19 test ( the cost of which may have to be repaid at a later date ) .
The obvious incentive to take the test means all visitors are being trusted to be responsible globetrotters , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Indeed , DeCODE Genetics ’ s research on the infection ’ s spread at the beginning of March found it was people arriving from Britain and Europe , rather than China , who were bringing the virus into Iceland .
( At the time , Icelandic warnings about its findings to countries like Austria went unheeded . )
Rather than close borders or try to pick preferential partners , it ’ s better to track and trace the infection .
That mindset makes it likely that visitors will have to download Iceland @ @ @ @ @ @ @ mobile phones .
That seems fair enough , considering the country ’ s strong data-protection policies .
In return for these pretty light strictures , visitors will get the run of a place without crowds or restrictive policies on movement and wearing face masks .
It ’ s a good trade .
Obviously , building something is no guarantee people will come .
Where Iceland may also become a role model is in actively funneling financial support to the tourism industry , which became its key export after the crippling 2008 banking crisis @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , worth 8 % of gross domestic product , includes subsidies to promote domestic tourism , a suspension of hotel taxes and a marketing campaign .
At 10 % of GDP , the tourism sector is a big part of the Icelandic economy — not far off Italy ’ s level — and wooing visitors at home and abroad is a necessary strategy .
None of this looks like it ’ ll be enough to avoid a deep recession in Iceland this year , as global consumers cut back and travel less .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ avoid a new spike in infections if the worst-case scenario comes to pass .
But as other countries struggle to emerge from lockdown , at the same time as trying to promote tourism , Iceland is worth paying attention to .
If a small island can test , trace and isolate coronavirus cases , and kick-start tourism in the space of a few months , it can be done elsewhere too .


washingtonpost--2020-05-15--Analysis | Berliners, Londoners and New Yorkers Are in a Battle for the Streets

This may be the right thing to do for my family ’ s well-being , and for the struggling auto industry , but — as someone who trumpets the green cause — I still feel like a hypocrite .
If lots of people do the same thing and take to their cars when workplaces reopen , then our cities will soon be gridlocked and even more polluted than before the Covid-19 outbreak , something the most enlightened city governments are determined to avoid .
It ’ s just one example of what will be a defining feature of the post-lockdown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Coronavirus has devastated rural communities too but the challenge of social distancing is most pressing in cities whose very density feels threatening .
Severe outbreaks have made many New Yorkers , Parisians and Londoners reevaluate where they live .
Fortunately , while the supply of urban land is fixed , the way we use it is mutable .
To restart commerce and protect public health , cities will have to reclaim territory from those who use it inefficiently , such as car drivers .
This trend had taken hold in some urban @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , businesses and residents will have to make maximum use of all available outside space , where the chance of catching the virus is much lower .
Until there ’ s a vaccine , we ’ ll all have to embrace going alfresco , so cross your fingers for decent weather .
This will all be easier if your city home has a garden , but most of us aren ’ t that lucky .
These are qualities we ’ d do well to preserve , not least because there ’ s some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ linger in the environment and that sustained exposure to bad air raises the risk of dying from Covid-19 .
But even if many of us continue to work from home , our cities may feel busier than before because so much previously occupied space will be off limits .
Restaurants and cafes will probably have to seat customers further apart , potentially cutting capacity by half .
The same goes for shops and museums that will have to control the number of visitors , which could create long queues .
If gyms remain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the parks .
These pressures will be felt most acutely in the transport system .
The requirement to maintain a safe distance between people could reduce the passenger capacity of London ’ s bus and tube network by 85 % , threatening chaos at peak travel periods unless commuters are told to stagger journeys .
Londoners usually take about 10 million bus and tube journeys daily .
Like Paris , Milan , Berlin and other European metropolises , London wants people to walk and cycle rather than get in their cars .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ bike lanes and widen pavements , and whole streets will be closed to traffic so commuters can access offices safely and kids can walk to school .
Paris will expand parking on the edge of the city , from where suburban commuters will be able to continue their journey by bike or other means .
It will also seal off streets near major rail stations and interchanges to ease crowding .
New York , meanwhile , aims to close up to 100 miles of streets to cars in the coming months to aid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Chicago will be allowed to stay open until midnight to accommodate more guests .
In Tampa , Florida , sidewalks and on-street parking are being repurposed for extra restaurant seating and retail space .
Back on this side of the Atlantic , Lithuania ’ s Vilnius has gone further by promising to turn over whole town squares to cafes and restaurants that lack outside space .
Still , even the most enlightened city policies will trigger yet more arguments about precious urban space .
In Berlin , where cafes and restaurants sell @ @ @ @ @ @ @ drinkers tend to congregate on the sidewalk or in nearby parks , making some pedestrians feel uncomfortable .
In the trendy Kreuzberg district , thirsty twentysomethings have carved out more space for themselves on the canal where they drift along in dinghies .
Their social-distancing skills aren ’ t optimal .
Perhaps I ’ ve already joined the petrolhead ranks after my recent acquisition , but car drivers aren ’ t always the enemy .
At the height of the pandemic , drive-through virus testing sites helped keep the infectious away from hospitals @ @ @ @ @ @ @ similar role now for more enjoyable activities .
Traditional cinemas may take a while to reopen but the drive-in variety is already doing a brisk trade .
In Germany , you can even visit a drive-in nightclub .
Nevertheless , I ’ m planning to surrender my car when the rental contract expires at the end of this year .
Our cities will be all the better if more of us did the same .


washingtonpost--2020-04-04--N.Y. Has Most Deaths in a Day; Italy Has Fewer: Virus Update

New York , the worst-hit U.S. state , recorded the biggest daily death toll yet , adding 630 fatalities for a total of 3,565 , Governor Andrew Cuomo said .
One thousand ventilators are due to arrive from China on Saturday .
“ This is a big deal and it ’ s going to make a significant difference for us , ” Cuomo said .
Oregon donated another 140 .
“ We ’ re not at the apex , ” Cuomo told reporters .
New York City ’ s total rose to 63,306 cases and 2,624 deaths .
Canadian Prime @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Donald Trump soon as the U.S. president escalates a battle with allies and 3M Co. over exports of medical equipment and N95 masks .
Trudeau said he wasn ’ t looking to retaliate or limit exports to the U.S. but will note that Canada also sends key equipment across the border .
The measures put in place by the U.K. to fight the virus are providing “ reasons to be hopeful , ” NHS England Medical Director Stephen Powis said at a press briefing .
Existing lockdown procedures will be reviewed next @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and financial assistance to help people and companies are constantly under review , Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove said .
The city on Friday sent an emergency mobile alert pleading for licensed health-care workers to volunteer at its hospitals .
The mayor said the city needs 45,000 more medical personnel through April and May .
“ We need as many health workers as possible right here , right now , ” he said .
The number of deaths in the Netherlands rose by 164 , or 11 % , to 1,651 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ RIVM National Institute for Public Health and the Environment .
The tally of confirmed virus cases increased by 6 % to 16,627 , slightly below the growth rate seen in the beginning of the week .
The amount of people hospitalized with the virus rose by 336 to 6,622 .
Spain said the number of confirmed cases increased to 124,736 , from 117,710 a day earlier , according to Health Ministry data .
In Italy , total cases stood at 119,827 .
In what could be a sign of hope , the number @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a second day , with an additional 809 fatalities in the past 24 hours for a total of 11,744 .
Sweden must expect to count its dead from the coronavirus in the “ thousands , ” Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said in an interview in Dagens Nyheter .
The biggest Nordic economy , which has opted for less restrictive measures than many countries in the fight against the pandemic , has had more than 330 deaths after confirmed cases topped 6,000 this week .
Lofven also said the country will need to contend @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for “ months , not weeks.
” France will allow companies to postpone their tax and social security payments again for the month of April , Budget Minister Gerald Darmanin said in an interview with Ouest France newspaper .
The government will decide later whether those taxes will eventually be canceled entirely , he said .
On Twitter , Darmanin said 450,000 small businesses have applied for a 1,500-euro ( $ 1,620 ) payment from the government ’ s “ solidarity fund .
”