washingtonpost--2020-03-17--Analysis | Coronavirus Could Very Well Slow by the Summer

At the same time , evidence is starting to emerge that temperature and humidity do make a difference in the ability of the virus to infect large numbers .
That should give health services hope for some respite as summer spreads across northern temperate regions , aiding the ability to plan for renewed outbreaks once winter rolls around .
We can ’ t simulate summer conditions in countries currently in the grip of winter , but we can do something almost as good — look at what ’ s happening in places closer to the equator where the climate is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ evidence on this front for some time .
Iran , which accounts for about 90 % of coronavirus cases in the Middle East , is unique in the region for mostly sitting on a plateau where winter conditions resemble those of more northerly countries .
At the same time , some Southeast Asian nations with close business and tourism links to China have seen surprisingly few cases , even if you assume their less developed public health systems are missing infections .
Thailand , Indonesia and the Philippines have each seen fewer cases @ @ @ @ @ @ @ despite a combined population more than 100 times as large .
A study uploaded to medical pre-print server MedRxiv Monday plots recorded cases against climate conditions to suggest that there is indeed a significant correlation between outbreaks and the weather .
In extreme cold and very hot and wet conditions the virus is “ largely absent , ” the researchers from Spain , Portugal and Finland wrote , meaning that people in tropical and polar climates are unlikely to see local transmission of cases .
Arid regions will see a higher rate of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ temperate countries and high-altitude areas closer to the equator .
The period between June and September should see a slowing rate of infections in much of Europe and North America , they wrote , although areas closer to the poles in Scandinavia , Russia and Canada may see worsening conditions as the climate warms enough to support local infections .
Another pre-print study by four Beijing-based researchers uploaded to the arXiv server last week comes to a similar conclusion after analyzing the infection rates in 100 Chinese cities .
That rate , known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ determinant of an infection ’ s propensity to spread .
For Covid-19 it ’ s currently estimated to be around 2.2 , but moving it below 1 should , if sustained , be enough to turn the current out-of-control epidemic into an outbreak that goes extinct on its own .
Increasing the temperature by one degree centigrade reduces the R0 by 0.0383 and increasing humidity by 1 % pushes it down by 0.0224 , the researchers found .
That should be particularly significant in places with hot , wet summers , they wrote @ @ @ @ @ @ @ goes ahead , the R0 in the city would likely be at extinction levels below 1 , given normal summer conditions .
The results shouldn ’ t be too surprising .
The mechanism that causes influenza and colds to spread faster in the winter isn ’ t perfectly understood .
It appears to relate to the way virus particles can stay active on surfaces such as elevator buttons and door handles for longer in mild weather ; the way people show greater susceptibility to throat infections when breathing cold , dry air ; @ @ @ @ @ @ @ warm , close conditions where diseases spread easily during winter weather .
Still , it would be remarkable if Covid-19 really behaved in a manner different from every other coronavirus , or indeed almost every other common respiratory virus .
Don ’ t start planning any summer holidays on the expectation this disease will vanish with the sun .
For one thing , both studies are still just computer models , and neither has been through peer review .
On top of that , even a reduced rate of infection will only slow @ @ @ @ @ @ @ this pandemic .
In most places , it won ’ t even be sufficient to push the R0 below 1 , in the absence of other measures such as social distancing .
Still , one worst-case scenario for this disease — where it rampages through lower-income regions of Africa and Southeast Asia , and there ’ s no seasonal break for health services to catch a breath before the next wave — is looking less likely than it did a few weeks ago .
That still leaves a range of very grim scenarios @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what comfort we can get .


washingtonpost--2020-03-01--Analysis | Can Singapore Save the World From Sinking?

Most other vulnerable countries aren ’ t as rich as Singapore , or as space-constrained .
The Philippines is moving government offices from disaster-prone Manila to the higher ground of a former U.S. Air Force base in Clark City .
Indonesia is erecting a new capital in the jungles of Borneo , even as it aims to put up a giant wall to shield Jakarta from ocean waves .
But where will Singapore , a sovereign state packed in an area three-fifths the size of New York City , go ?
One option is to emulate the Pacific Ocean island @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 2,000 kilometers away in Fiji .
The Maldives has explored resettling its population in Australia .
But how does Singapore leave behind a strategic port , the world ’ s best airport , humming refineries and data centers , and gigantic underground reservoirs of crude oil ?
How does it recreate a megalopolis for 5.7 million residents and several times as many visiting bankers , businessmen and tourists ?
Sitting at the mouth of one of the world ’ s busiest shipping lanes , separating peninsular Malaysia from the island of Sumatra in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
What it has are money and a forward-planning DNA , both of which it has used successfully in the past to stop getting its arm twisted over the supply of raw water from Malaysia .
But as existential threats go , climate change will be a lot trickier .
“ We can not lose a big chunk of our city and expect the rest of Singapore to carry on as usual , ” Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his national day speech last August , in which he gave an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ get : S $ 100 billion ( $ 72 billion ) over 100 years , possibly more .
Put another way , Singaporeans will invest what it cost the U.S. in today ’ s money to build its first transcontinental railroad in 1869 ; and they will keep repeating that feat every year and a half for a century .
( 1 ) A survey found that for 21 % of citizens and permanent residents , the emphasis on climate change was the most “ impressive ” part of Lee ’ s address @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the ocean tries to wrest back what the island ’ s planners took from it to accommodate their outsize growth ambitions .
Some of the priciest real estate is standing on soft marine clay in reclaimed lands in downtown Singapore and the central business district , according to a recent study .
This clay is subsiding .
The combined effect , the scientists say , could be to flood as much as 18 square kilometers — 21 % more area than rising sea levels alone would .
So what ’ s to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ include “ empoldering , ” a Dutch system of reclamation in which newly drained land sits lower than the sea , protected by a dike .
Rainwater gets pumped out into an inland water body , which throws its excess into the surrounding sea .
When Singapore embraced this innovation to expand an outlying island — the main city is surrounded by 62 of them — the idea was to save on sand costs .
But polders are now being seen as a technique to arrest the sinking of Singapore .
Next comes @ @ @ @ @ @ @ minister ’ s speech , the government put S $ 5 billion into a coastal and flood protection fund .
That ’ s a bold commitment when the coronavirus epidemic is threatening to disrupt trade and tourism and destroy jobs .
Yet , Singapore wants to make an early down payment and go ahead and raise a politically sensitive consumption tax to 9 % from 7 % , sometime between 2022 and 2025 .
Earlier , aging-related healthcare costs were the main reason to marshal resources .
Now , taxpayers are also on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the sea .
It ’ s a delicate balance between survival in 2100 , votes in the next elections that are likely later this year , and sustaining long-term competitiveness .
Singaporeans aren ’ t exactly happy with their rising retirement age .
But the government has already increased income taxes on top earners to 5 percentage points more than arch rival Hong Kong .
Any more and they might leave .
Higher consumption taxes are the only solution .
Still , not all of the burden can be front-loaded .
Inter-generational justice @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Yet-to-be-born Singaporeans won ’ t get a free pass .
Laws make it difficult for the government to raid the nation ’ s substantial past reserves , whose size is a state secret .
But converting financial assets into improved land , which is what empoldering will entail , is allowed more easily because it isn ’ t a depletion of coffers .
Any funding gaps could be filled with long-term borrowings to be repaid by future taxpayers .
Climate bonds are a small but growing asset class .
If AAA-rated Singapore @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be lapped up by global pension managers starved of yields .
The city last year imposed a S $ 5-a-ton tax on greenhouse gases , though its own emissions are just 0.1 % of the world total .
It ’ s the large economies whose behavior will determine how boldly Singapore must spend .
Just as the city with no resources became a global role model for recycling dirty water for drinking , what it does to fight climate change and how it finances the investment could show other countries a way .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ seriousness will give investors a good idea of whether coordinated global action against rising temperatures is a realistic goal , or a pipe dream .
Think of the world as a rickety coal mine , and tiny Singapore might be its canary .
With a S $ 100 billion song on its lips .

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washingtonpost--2020-03-01--Analysis | A $30 Oil Price Is the Real Virus Threat to OPEC

The looming pandemic has already made its mark on oil markets .
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is now firmly below $ 50 a barrel and global benchmark Brent briefly followed it on Friday .
That is uncomfortable territory for producers everywhere and , without a clear indication of deeper output cuts from this week ’ s meetings , prices will fall further .
As the virus spreads , locking down Italy ’ s industrial heartland and prompting Switzerland to ban large gatherings , producers appear to be clinging to overly optimistic demand assessments .
OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Arabia last week , said that in spite of the new coronavirus , the world ’ s “ thirst for energy will continue to grow.
” While that may be true for energy as a whole , it may not be for oil demand this year if there isn ’ t a quick rebound .
Assessments from the three main forecasting agencies still show 2020 oil demand growth running close to a million barrels a day , but that now looks very optimistic .
By contrast , veteran energy consultants FGE cut their @ @ @ @ @ @ @ almost zero.
” They base their pessimism on the ripple effects of the virus beyond China , where traffic volumes in affected cities have already slumped , according to data from the TomTom Traffic Index .
Measured in terms of how much longer journeys take than they would on empty roads , live data show that traffic volumes in Beijing are still well below normal levels , even as the city is reportedly returning to work .
But this is no longer just a Chinese problem .
The economic impact of the spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the world is clear .
Four-week average jet fuel demand in the U.S. has dropped by 18 % in the past 10 weeks .
Airlines are cutting flight schedules and passenger numbers have collapsed .
An acquaintance of mine flew back from Australia last weekend on a plane he reckons was only about one-third full .
As people have second thoughts about getting on flights if there ’ s no guarantee those around them aren ’ t infected , flight schedules will almost certainly be cut further , with obvious implications for fuel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ global demand growth for the fuel to just 50,000 barrels a day this year , little more than a third of what they saw a month ago .
And those TomTom figures show the impact of the virus on traffic in Milan after its discovery in northern Italy .
Morning rush-hour journey times have been cut by a quarter , as fewer cars clog the roads .
This is the situation that will face the oil ministers of the 23 nations in OPEC+ later this week .
They need a credible plan that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , even if Russia balks at making further cuts .
Its compliance has been poor , but Saudi Arabia seems willing to accept that in return for the perception of added clout that it thinks Russia ’ s presence at the table brings .
I have no doubt that an agreement will be hammered out in Vienna — or via a virtual meeting if the gathering is cancelled .
( There are no signs yet that it will be , though OPEC continues to monitor the situation in Vienna ) .
The cost @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ would leave the market vulnerable to a short-term swing below $ 30 a barrel , ” analysts Emily Ashford and Paul Horsnell from Standard Chartered said in a report .
Oil traders will remain hard to convince that producers are doing enough , or reacting quickly enough .
Saudi Arabia ’ s oil supplies to China are set to fall by a third in March as demand withers .
The kingdom is pressing OPEC+ producers to agree to collective production cut of an additional 1 million barrels a day — even that @ @ @ @ @ @


washingtonpost--2020-05-06--Analysis | Understanding the Virus and Its Unanswered Questions

Coronaviruses , named for their crown-like shape , are a large family of pathogens responsible for diseases that range in severity from the common cold to the frequently fatal Middle East Respiratory Syndrome ( MERS ) .
New ones pop up now and then , often moving from an animal host to humans .
Unlike the coronavirus responsible for the 2002-2003 outbreak in Asia of severe acute respiratory syndrome or SARS , this new one can spread via people who are infected but haven ’ t yet developed or won ’ t develop symptoms .
Researchers at the University of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to half of transmissions occur from pre-symptomatic people .
Initial symptoms are similar , and influenza is also spread by people without symptoms -- but not that commonly .
Also , flu ’ s average incubation period -- the time between infection and the appearance of symptoms -- is two days .
It ’ s about five days for the coronavirus , enabling it to move silently in a community before being detected .
Its stealthy nature wasn ’ t well understood at first and contributed to the staggered and uneven quality of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ China imposed the most extensive quarantine in known history in Hubei province ; the outbreak began there in the capital Wuhan , an industrial city of 11 million .
Travel bans were introduced between countries , but not before the virus had reached around the world , fueling a mounting death toll .
Governments locked down populations through stay-at-home orders and mandated “ social distancing ” to “ flatten the curve ” of new infections .
As the extent of the virus ’ s silent spread became clear , more of them recommended @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in tight public spaces .
• Whether people develop immunity to it : Typically , infection with a pathogen prompts the body to develop antibodies that protect against reinfection .
Whether this is true for the coronavirus and how long immunity might last are key questions in determining how movement restrictions can be safely eased .
Tests for protective antibodies could enable those who test positive to feel more secure about returning to work , if the tests were reliable .
Concerns that infections might recur have been stoked by people testing positive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ symptoms ended .
South Korean officials said in early April that so-called nucleic acid tests may detect dead virus particles that may linger long after an infection has resolved , muddying the interpretation of results .
• How deadly is it : Estimates of the fatality rate are unreliable in the early stages of an outbreak because there may be many people who go uncounted .
Also , countries have different criteria for what deaths they include in their Covid-19 counts , skewing the figures .
An estimated fatality rate of about 1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ pandemic could rival the most devastating outbreaks in recent decades .
In the worst in recent history , the 1918 influenza hit as much as a third of the world ’ s population , killing about 2 % of those infected , or an estimated 50 million people .
• Whether it ’ s seasonal : There ’ s no conclusive evidence that , like outbreaks of influenza , the pandemic will wilt as the weather warms in the northern hemisphere , though there is some indication it may .
Even if the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could return with fall , as flu does .
• All the ways it spreads : It ’ s clear people contract the coronavirus by coming into contact with virus-containing droplets emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes .
These can be transferred directly to someone in close proximity or by touching a contaminated surface and then the mouth , nose or eyes .
One study concluded that the coronavirus can survive four hours on copper , 24 hours on cardboard , 48 hours on stainless steel and 72 hours on plastic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s also a theoretical risk the coronavirus can spread through feces or in tiny airborne particles known as aerosols .
• How contagious it is : Epidemiologists try to gauge contagiousness by estimating the number of additional people likely to be infected by an individual with the virus .
That measurement , called a basic reproduction number or r0 ( pronounced “ r naught ” ) , is one indicator of how hard an epidemic is to control .
The figure is difficult to calculate and it varies by location and time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ density and what measures are in place to thwart its spread .
For the coronavirus , it ’ s been calculated at 5.7 in the early stages in Wuhan and at 2.28 in an outbreak on a cruise ship .
Outbreaks are expected to continue if the r0 is greater than 1.0 and to end if less than 1.0 .
• Where it came from : When the virus emerged in early December in Wuhan , attention focused on a seafood market where live animals were also sold .
Early cases not tied @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t where the virus emerged but probably where it subsequently spread to multiple people .
The viral genome is closely related to several coronaviruses found in bats .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as zoonoses , comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .
U.S. and Chinese officials have traded accusations about the origins of the virus .
• The elderly and those with underlying health issues are most at risk of developing a life-threatening illness .
In the limited studies so far , those @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 80 % of deaths .
Many of the fatalities have been in patients with other conditions such as high blood pressure , diabetes , cardiovascular disease and obesity .
• Herd immunity : If enough people in a community develop immunity through prior illness or vaccination , so-called herd immunity can become established .
That reduces the number of susceptible people to a level at which transmission slows and eventually stops .
The necessary percentage depends on the contagiousness of the pathogen .
For the novel coronavirus , it ’ s estimated to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .


washingtonpost--2020-05-04--Analysis | Coronavirus Will Change Not Just How, But What, We Buy

But for many others , what they wear , how they shop and which products they buy will be forever altered by the pandemic .
The Covid-19 outbreak , which has tragically infected more than three million people and killed more than 219,000 , has also struck at the heart of consumerism around the world .
First of all , there ’ s the immediate economic impact .
With millions of workers temporarily furloughed and laid off , they will be reining in their spending .
If these become permanent job losses , the effect will be even more severe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ugly for a while .
And habits learned in lean times often stick around .
Witness the acceptance of discount retailers , such as the German no-frills supermarkets Aldi and Lidl .
The cash-strapped middle classes in the U.S. and Europe discovered the delights of their cheap wine and value toilet paper during the 2007-2008 global financial crisis , and the budget grocers have prospered ever since .
Then there ’ s the slow and incremental process of coming out of lockdown .
Even individuals who have kept their jobs and full salaries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , as it will be some time before they feel comfortable visiting crowded malls and dining out in restaurants again .
With social distancing potentially staying in place for up to two years , according to KPMG , this could mean far-reaching consequences for the operation and physical design of stores .
For example , stores might have to require appointments for visits , offer more check-out free locations and even rethink facilities such as changing rooms .
Who wants to pick up discarded garments when the world is emerging from a pandemic @ @ @ @ @ @ @ encouraging signs coming from China , where consumers emerging from lockdown seem to be embracing shopping once more .
PwC estimates that as of early April sales at non-food retailers were at 50-80 % of their pre-crisis levels .
In luxury , the recovery has been even more extreme : A Hermes International flagship store took in $ 2.7 million when it reopened in Guangzhou in mid-April , believed to be a record daily haul for a boutique in China , according to fashion trade bible WWD .
LVMH said some of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50 % increases in sales in April compared to the previous year .
This phenomenon is being called “ revenge spending , ” a phrase first coined to capture the desire for consumer goods unleashed in China during the 1980s , after the poverty and chaos of the Cultural Revolution .
At the moment , Chinese shoppers are flush with cash after cancelled travel and events .
However , this demand may not last , especially as the number of people allowed in boutiques at any one time is limited and initiatives such @ @ @ @ @ @ @ place .
The outbreak has hit something we largely take for granted : our health .
While more government resources are directed to healthcare — something that will have implications for taxes and disposable incomes — there will also likely be a reassessment of personal priorities .
That could mean spending even more of one ’ s income on private health insurance or buying products that help boost immunity .
The pandemic has also fostered a renewed sense of community .
This plus the inability to travel very far could encourage spending in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ strong regional identities , as opposed to the big retailers who may have had empty shelves or struggled to deliver online orders during the crisis .
Underlining the new mood , one British retailer with a long history of trading on the high street told me they ’ ve even noticed more customers saying thank you to staff in their daily interactions .
One sector that is poised to suffer tremendously going forward is clothing .
Most consumers have effectively skipped a fashion season , being unwilling or unable to buy apparel for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and weddings have been cancelled , so we ’ ve simply needed fewer new clothes .
There may be some pent-up demand when consumers rediscover their freedom , especially if retailers are having to cut prices to clear stock .
But for many , essential grooming such as getting a haircut or a fresh set of eyelash extensions will take precedence over buying a new outfit .
Some consumers who bought fewer clothes during this period may continue to reduce their wardrobe spend .
The size of the average U.S. closet has already @ @ @ @ @ @ @ according to GlobalData .
If you combine the pandemic and concerns about fashion ’ s environmental cost , it ’ s not hard to see how men and women may buy even less apparel in the future .
During the prolonged shutdown , there will be some retailers that consumers simply don ’ t miss and therefore may not return to .
U.S. department stores , such as Macy ’ s Inc. and J.C. Penney , already grappling with the shift toward online buying and with few compelling products , may well fall @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a $ 12 million interest payment and is evaluating alternatives including a potential bankruptcy filing to restructure its finances , Reuters reported recently .
Macy ’ s , meanwhile , is exploring ways to use its real estate to secure fresh cash .
Indeed , some storied names may shut their doors forever , or decide that the time is right to close a number of locations .
Whether out of necessity or choice , shoppers will want goods that are appealing — and , after a health scare , make them feel @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level they believe is appropriate .
This doesn ’ t always mean the cheapest , but it does mean a perceived sense of good value for money .
That ’ s at odds with the approach of higher initial prices followed by steep markdowns that has become a hallmark of much U.S. retail .
But as customers become more discerning , store groups will need to distinguish themselves with more than just discounts .


washingtonpost--2020-05-05--U.S. Covid-19 Cases Rise 1.9%; Deaths Top 70,000: Virus Update


washingtonpost--2020-05-06--Analysis | Not Even Garbage Is Immune From a Pandemic

These are the most profitable customers for trash haulers so the loss of business is having an outsize effect on margins .
At Republic , overall decremental margins — a measure of earnings power that looks at how much profit is lost for each dollar of sales ( a lower number is better ) — trended at around 40 % in April .
That ’ s steep for a company that ’ s considered relatively resilient in downturns .
The pandemic shaved about 40 basis points off of Waste Management ’ s Ebitda margin in the first quarter .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , however .
But if you ’ re wondering whether all those extra bags of trash and recycling you are producing at home under lockdown are providing much of an offset to the commercial slump , they aren ’ t .
While commercial contracts tend to have some flexibility when it comes to volumes — and the trash haulers are incentivized to make allowances on this once-in-a-lifetime event to protect long-term relationships — the majority of residential trash pickup is based on a fixed contract , says Jefferies analyst Hamzah Mazari .
Your @ @ @ @ @ @ @ certain level of service , say two times a week , and then the cost stays the same even if you lugged 10 bags of trash to the curb last week rather than your usual two .
As a result , the pandemic has had a limited effect on sales in the residential part of Republic and Waste Management ’ s business , although the cost of processing and disposing of all the trash we ’ re now creating at home is increasing .
The good news is that some in the corporate @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be a little less empty .
At Republic , some of the customers that cut back on their service are already re-engaging and planning for a restart of their business .
Last week , service increases fully offset requests for reductions .
“ The worst is behind us , ” CEO Donald Slager said on a call late Tuesday to discuss Republic ’ s results , sounding a tone of optimism that has been largely absent from other industrial companies this earnings season .
While the company officially pulled its guidance , Slager @ @ @ @ @ @ @ free-cash-flow outlook of $ 1.175 billion to $ 1.225 billion may still be possible depending on how the recovery shakes out .
Republic is taking a “ wait-and-see ” approach to capital allocation , but indicated its plans to spend $ 600 million to $ 650 million on M & A this year remain intact , with the remainder of free cash flow going to shareholders .
Only those manufacturers with pristine balance sheets have been willing to make similar commitments .
It remains to be seen if this optimism is justified .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ tone , Bloomberg News reported Capital One Financial Corp. is preparing office-based employees in the U.S. , Canada and U.K. to work from home at least through the Labor Day holiday on Sept. 7 .
Waste Management was notably more cautious in its earnings press release on Wednesday , warning of a “ significant decrease ” in 2020 revenue and announcing plans to temporarily suspend share repurchases .
But Republic president Jon Vander Ark said few of the company ’ s customers have closed for good at this point , even as he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ chaos , and few are seeking to renegotiate the pricing of their contracts .
“ They ’ re eager to get back to business , ” Vander Ark said .
“ Their first point of interest is not the price point of their waste and recycling service .
It ’ s getting their employees back safely and working and getting customers in their door.
” Speaking of getting employees back safely and customers in the door , I would be remiss if I didn ’ t call attention to Republic and Waste Management @ @ @ @ @ @ @ their own workers .
Waste Management is guaranteeing 40 hours of weekly pay to all full-time employees during the pandemic .
Republic is launching a $ 20 million initiative that among other things provides front-line employees with weekly onsite meals and dinners for their families purchased at local establishments , as well as $ 400 worth of gift cards for small businesses .
“ They perform an essential service and it ’ s a noble purpose .
Unfortunately , society doesn ’ t do a great job of recognizing them all the time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” Vander Ark of Republic said .
“ Customers obviously are looking for some cost relief , but what they really need is revenue , and we ’ re allowing our people and empowering our people to go support local small businesses that are our customers.
” As we think about a recovery , this mentality toward corporations ’ role in the community may play a key role .
I can think of a lot of companies that would do well to follow the lead of their trash collectors .


washingtonpost--2020-05-06--Analysis | Disney World Tops the Bobs’ List of Headaches

So much of Disney ’ s business model is dependent upon large numbers of people doing things together , something most people — until recently — hadn ’ t given a second thought to since the attacks on 9/11 .
But the Covid-19 threat , or at least fears of it , may stay with us well beyond this current lockdown period , and that could permanently change how we think about getting on an airplane or cruise ship , being at an amusement park or going to the movies again .
The only thing that does seem to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be streaming more television .
That ’ s why Bob Iger ’ s decision to make Disney+ and Hulu the new focus of the company ’ s future couldn ’ t have had better timing .
Iger stepped aside as CEO in February , though his presence still looms large at Disney as executive chairman .
He even kicked off Tuesday ’ s earnings call before his successor Bob Chapek took over for the rest of the time .
Disney+ is a long way from ever replacing the kind of profits generated by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prospects are now so much more certain than any of Disney ’ s other divisions .
Disney+ reached 54.5 million subscribers as of May 4 , which is fast approaching a goal it didn ’ t expect to hit until 2024 of having 60-90 million subscribers .
It ’ s at that point Disney predicts the service can begin turning a profit .
Iger may be sticking around in a more hands-on role than the chairman title would imply in order to ensure Disney ’ s content and streaming strategy doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Chapek ’ s experience has predominantly been on the theme-parks side of Disney , which will continue to consume a lot of the CEO ’ s attention for the time being .
Disney announced its Shanghai park will start accepting visitors again on May 11 , though only a fraction of the 80,000 it normally welcomes on a given day .
The company doesn ’ t know when exactly it will be able to open the U.S. parks , but when it does , that will entail everyone wearing masks , except @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep a distance from visitors .
It certainly detracts from the vacation experience .
Chapek was asked on the call about the “ Pandora ’ s Box ” of safety issues that come with reopening the theme parks and whether he ’ s ready to wade into that debate .
Unfortunately , the new CEO dodged the question , instead pivoting to an explanation on how the parks will likely date their tickets to control crowds and not leave any customers disappointed that they can ’ t get in .
With shelter-in-place orders @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Disney doesn ’ t want to get into it .
Chapek did , however , talk about the pent-up demand for its parks and movies , and it would have been nice to hear more of his thinking on the inherent safety challenges .
It shows just how difficult and even controversial it may be for Disney to get its attractions up and running while so much about the virus situation is still uncertain .
And even a return to “ normal ” might mean something different for those types of businesses .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in Disney+ and Hulu to ensure the company thrives in a stay-at-home world , too .


washingtonpost--2020-05-06--Analysis | Don’t Let Coronavirus Devastate Refugee Camps

A peculiar fact about the coronavirus catastrophe so far is that the world ’ s poorest have largely been spared the worst .
Of the 10 countries with the most deaths to date , nearly all are among the wealthiest .
But if the virus has overwhelmed places with modern hospitals and world-class medical infrastructure — as anyone who ’ s been in New York or Milan recently can attest — it could do still more catastrophic damage in places where the health-care system is fragile to start with .
Perhaps nowhere is the risk greater than in the world @ @ @ @ @ @ @ million refugees live in more than 100 such camps worldwide .
Although that ’ s just a small fraction of the refugee population , which totals some 26 million , people in camps face outsized risks during a pandemic .
Like cruise ships , which have been notorious coronavirus hotbeds , refugee camps are generally overcrowded .
( In many of them , the population density far outstrips that of Manhattan in New York City . )
Unlike cruise ships , they often lack basic sanitary infrastructure — several hundred people , for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ water source .
Meanwhile , the shortages of personal protective equipment ( the now infamous PPE ) that have bedeviled the rich world are far worse in camps , and advanced care is “ scarce to nonexistent , ” according to the advocacy group Refugees International .
Some countries have dealt with coronavirus by putting camps under lockdown , making medical care even further out of reach .
That ’ s the bad news .
The good news is that few of the world ’ s camps are yet dealing with contagion on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ where 17 % onboard became infected ) , or Ohio ’ s Marion Correctional Institution ( where , horribly , more than 80 % of inmates are sick ) .
The world has time to prepare .
And it must — for humanitarian reasons , but also because of self-interest .
Coronavirus outbreaks in camps would sow instability and turmoil in host countries , disrupt the process of refugee resettlement and set economic development back by decades .
They could also spread the virus to larger national populations .
As Singapore has shown @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can buckle if they let noncitizens fall through the cracks .
Traditional social distancing may be impossible in camps , as workers and refugees alike have noted , but some solutions are still at hand .
Most drastically , states could “ evacuate ” their overcrowded refugee facilities , as Doctors Without Borders and others have urged Greece to do .
While that ’ s unlikely to happen on a broad scale , Greece has begun transferring unaccompanied children to Germany and Luxembourg — part of a larger E.U .
initiative — and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the most vulnerable refugees .
Unfortunately , most camps are in places that lack the resources of the European Union , or even Greece ( which is far from a model host country ) .
Where states are unable or unwilling to act , the rest of the world must .
Rich countries that lack the political will to accept new refugees could , at the very least , boost funding to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees , which is building quarantine and isolation units in camps .
The UN and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ relieving congestion — doing things like delivering soap door to door via donkey , as is happening in camps in eastern Sudan .
People who don ’ t have their food , water and basic sanitary needs met are also vulnerable to all sorts of illnesses , including Covid-19 .
So meeting those basic needs is a crucial preventative measure .
The UNHCR , to its credit , has prioritized improving water and hygiene infrastructure in camps , as have many NGOs .
Unfortunately , due to a coronavirus-related funding shortfall , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rations for refugees in Uganda by 30 % .
Rations are hardly luxurious to start with , so harsh cuts could lead to malnutrition — leaving refugees with weakened immune systems at the worst possible time .
Countries struggling with their own Covid-19 crises will be tempted to cut funding to agencies and NGOs that provide basic services to refugees .
That ’ s a terrible idea .
The global economy may not be flush right now , but investing in nutrition and sanitation would prevent even costlier global catastrophes in the future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ would likewise be misguided : Shutting out non-citizens can have disastrous consequences for public health .
If wealthy countries care about their own self-interest , they should be inclusive as well as break with their woeful tradition of skimping on aid during recessions .
Because as we all know , the coronavirus respects no borders .
One other critical thing the world can do is improve communications and connectivity in refugee camps .
Bangladesh offers a case study in what not to do .
Home to the world ’ s largest complex of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rohingya refugees from Myanmar .
Since last autumn , it has banned the internet in camps and restricted mobile-phone access to refugees .
As a result , misinformation about what residents call the “ moronavirus , ” or “ dying virus ” in Rohingya , is rampant .
Aid workers say they can ’ t spread important health information ; human rights campaigners say the restrictions put lives at risk .
In the case of Bangladesh , global pressure campaigns could be successful .
“ The way to make progress is to have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with Bangladeshi leaders and try to make the case that these kinds of restrictions don ’ t serve the interests of the government of Bangladesh , ” says Eric Schwartz , president of Refugees International .
Rumors increase the likelihood of panic — with potentially terrible consequences .
Behind-the-scenes pressure and public expressions of concern could push Bangladesh to reconsider .
In other countries , NGOs are taking creative approaches to improving communications , by scaling up existing online platforms to reach more refugees , or sending text messages with health information in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ camps are in places with strong communications infrastructure .
In those cases , and in others , health information campaigns may take on more traditional forms — for example , in Mexico , hand-painted signs .
Protecting the world ’ s most vulnerable people from a pandemic costs money .
Sadly , the world hasn ’ t been fast to give .
The United Nations has appealed for an additional $ 2 billion to deal with Covid-related humanitarian needs , and has received less than half of that — including a meager $ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( Germany , with one-quarter the population , has contributed some $ 50 million more . )
Schwartz notes that Congress has allocated some $ 900 million for humanitarian aid as part of its coronavirus relief packages — which comes to just .03 % of the roughly $ 3 trillion total .
In March , the UN and the International Organization for Migration suspended refugee resettlement worldwide .
That decision may reflect both an abundance of medical caution and an acknowledgment of political realities in resettlement countries .
But locking the exits on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ desperate people and then leaving them more vulnerable to a pandemic they did nothing to create is not just an act of callous indifference .
It is also a potential strategic blunder : Some of the world ’ s biggest refugee camps are in states grappling with terrorist threats ( Kenya , Jordan and Pakistan ) or the aftershocks of civil wars and atrocities ( South Sudan and Bangladesh ) .
They shouldn ’ t be weakened any further by having to cope with a virus whose spread would be even more difficult @ @ @ @ @ @ @ quarters .
“ We know how to deal with these issues , but the critical missing piece is adequate resourcing , ” says Schwartz .
If only out of self-interest , that ’ s a gap that the rich world can afford to fill .


washingtonpost--2020-06-11--Analysis | Car Inc.’s Creditors Still Stuck in Chairman’s Web

This tangle isn ’ t going away , but Car Inc. hopes pressure from its obligations can .
The company says that it ’ s speaking to creditors about waiving $ 168 million of immediately due debts .
The expectation is that their jitters will be eased by last week ’ s news that a deal is in the works for state-backed car company Beijing Automotive Group Co. , the Chinese joint-venture partner for Daimler AG-owned Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai Motor Co. , to rescue the rental firm.There are questions about how much sense the proposed bailout makes for either company @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it can really free Car Inc. from its ties to UCAR .
It ’ s unclear whether the transaction will even be completed ; final terms haven ’ t been agreed .
The deal would be similar to one with U.S. private equity firm Warburg Pincus LLC that Car Inc. terminated a few weeks ago .
Such agreements at Chinese companies don ’ t always work out , according to analysts at HSBC Holdings Plc .
For instance , bonds rallied at Huachen Energy Co. when a state-owned entity came in for a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and nothing was concluded .
Next , consider the waivers .
Agreements with Car Inc. ’ s creditors hold that if Lu is no longer a director , lenders can ask for the immediate return of the outstanding principal , accrued interest and other payables .
Given the stress on the company and the market , Car Inc. is asking for a waiver .
But why should creditors defer the $ 168 million due to them ?
It ’ s not like the business is going to turn around any time soon , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Conditions for renting cars will stay gloomy for some time after the Covid-19 hit .
The company ’ s capital allocation is poor , as analysts at Lucror Analytics note .
That isn ’ t going to change .
Car Inc. could talk lenders into a distressed exchange .
That may help stave off a default as Lu ’ s network unravels , but would probably come at a loss to creditors , a phenomenon that analysts at Moody ’ s Investors Service have noted in recent months at other troubled companies .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in point .
The mining company bought back over $ 100 million of its debt at around a 40 % discount to par value .
Typically , the lower the likelihood of a borrower making good on obligations , the larger the discount .
Car Inc. has few alternative channels to raise cash .
Car Inc. remains China ’ s biggest rental company in the world ’ s largest car market .
The prospects for growth — pre-pandemic — were bright .
It could make the business work , or at least get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ keep things rolling until the market comes back , should it manage to be restructured to cut dependence on Lu ’ s web .
Short of that , there ’ s not much to look forward to .


washingtonpost--2020-06-10--Analysis | #MeToo Made Hollywood Better. So Can This National Movement.

In the case of # MeToo , the answer is yes , there has been meaningful change .
It began with the TV and film space , which is a particularly good place to start , for no industry wields more power in influencing societal attitudes .
That ’ s not to say sexism is over .
Sexual harassment and bad behavior still go on .
And there ’ s nowhere near enough women in the upper echelons of corporate America or government or Hollywood yet .
But the message that came out of # MeToo was that those who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ held accountable , and that message has stuck in more places than not .
It ’ s allowed for more women ’ s voices to be elevated , slowly but surely changing society for the better .
If corporate America and Hollywood struggled in how to respond to # MeToo , race and racial bias have been even more difficult for them to navigate .
And for the same reasons : a lack of diversity up top .
The broad response to the recent protests continues to oscillate between encouraging and awkward .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ makeup , to retailers and streaming-video services — flooded Instagram last week with black squares in support of the protests ( though those that used the # BlackLivesMatter hashtag unintentionally drowned out posts from protest organizers ) .
They promised , vaguely , to help effect change , and in some cases are putting money behind that promise .
Some media companies are taking it a step further .
On Wednesday , AT & T Inc. ’ s HBO Max removed the movie classic “ Gone With the Wind ” from its app @ @ @ @ @ @ @ depictions .
ViacomCBS Inc. ’ s Paramount Network canceled “ Cops , ” a show that was entering its 33rd season and has been criticized for glorifying police while promoting racist stereotypes .
It ’ s a start .
But just like with # MeToo , this isn ’ t about hiding away past bad behavior or troubling history in some dusty case under lock and key .
It ’ s about hiring and promoting more women , black people and others of color — and giving them a platform for expressing themselves @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that matches its audience and creating empathy among people with different lived experiences .
There are objective , measurable ways to make a business more diverse , and it will be that much stronger for it .
HBO ’ s season one of “ A Black Lady Sketch Show ” last summer was a hit .
After # MeToo , the TV and film industry has done some things to right the wrongs of its casting-couch culture ( even if that toxic culture may also still exist ) .
It can be seen @ @ @ @ @ @ @ been streaming during the Covid-19 crisis .
The flagship programs on new services such as Apple TV+ — ” The Morning Show ” with Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon — and HBO Max ’ s ” Love Life ” with Anna Kendrick feature women as the central characters , and in all their true-to-life complexity , instead of the shallow stereotypes that were written all too often into scripts and perpetuated sexist views in society .
Walt Disney Co. ’ s “ Captain Marvel , ” starring Brie Larson , sold $ 1.1 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and its opening weekend alone nearly recouped its entire production budget .
( By the way , the same was true for “ Black Panther , ” which pulled in $ 1.3 billion at the box office . )
Last year , 40 % of the top grossing films featured female protagonists , up from 31 % in 2018 , according to research by Dr. Martha Lauzen of the Center for the Study of Women in Television and Film at San Diego State University .
But 68 % of all female characters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ only 20 % were black .
As the pandemic ’ s stay-at-home orders lift and Hollywood gets back to work , there will be an immense need to replenish TV services with new content and draw movie fans back to theaters .
It ’ s a perfect time for the industry to give more women and people of color the chance to write , direct and star in those works .


washingtonpost--2020-06-11--Mnuchin May Ease Rules for $17 Billion Security Funds

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washingtonpost--2020-06-11--Adobe Rises on Durable Demand for Creative, Document Apps

Adobe projected revenue of $ 3.15 billion in the current period ending in August , missing analysts ’ average estimate of $ 3.27 billion , because of weak demand for the company ’ s Advertising Cloud product .
The company withdrew its annual forecast announced in December .
The software maker told investors in March that the coronavirus outbreak had created business uncertainty and reduced corporate marketing budgets , leading to weaker demand for its products .
Thursday ’ s results showed the damage to the business wasn ’ t as bad as feared with quarterly sales increasing 14 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 3.16 billion .
Chief Executive Officer Shantanu Narayen has spurred Adobe ’ s revenue and market value to record heights since he transitioned the company to cloud-based software in 2012 .
Before the coronavirus pandemic and recession , Adobe ’ s torrid pace of growth was expected to slow , even as the company unveils a steady stream of new products to modernize clients ’ technology systems and freshen mobile apps for consumers , designers and social media influencers .
While Adobe has sought to diversify from the creative products that became @ @ @ @ @ @ @ software , Photoshop and its brethren remains the company ’ s cash cow .
“ We have successfully navigated several crises and have always used them as a catalyst to make strategic and structural change to emerge stronger , ” Narayen said in a conference call after the results .
“ Our employees , broad and diverse portfolio of products , strong balance sheet and rigorous operating cadence put us in a rarified atmosphere among companies of our size and scale.
” Shares rose about 3 % in extended trading after closing at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ stock has climbed about 18 % this year .
Profit , after some expenses , was $ 2.45 a share in the period ended May 29 , beating analysts ’ expectations of $ 2.34 .
Adobe said it will generate a profit of $ 2.40 a share in the current period , missing estimates by 5 cents .
Revenue from digital media , led by Photoshop but including Acrobat and other document products , climbed 18 % to $ 2.23 billion in the quarter from a year earlier and is projected to increase @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Adobe said the unit ’ s annual recurring revenue will show a net increase of $ 340 million in the current period , pointing to continued growth for the business .
Sales in the company ’ s digital experience segment , which includes marketing software , rose 5 % to $ 826 million .
Adobe said the Advertising Cloud business didn ’ t realize $ 50 million of expected revenue in the quarter because the company discontinued a low-margin product and due to the macroeconomic environment .
Sales in the digital experience @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the current quarter , the company said .
Adobe ’ s executives said that by stopping the product , which helped clients conduct advertising transactions , the company can instead invest in future growth areas , such as making web browsers a better platform for creating content , artificial intelligence and next-generation apps .
Adobe has seen record web traffic for its document and creative products , but demand from small and mid-sized businesses has waned during the pandemic .


washingtonpost--2020-06-11--Owl Rock Launches Loan Program for Minority-Owned Businesses


washingtonpost--2020-06-11--Analysis | Does Warm Weather Curb Coronavirus? What the Experts Say

Researchers who examined the spread of Covid-19 and local weather conditions in more than 3,700 global locations through late April concluded in a working paper that temperatures higher than 25 degrees Celsius ( 77 degrees Fahrenheit ) were associated with lower transmission rates .
Their study , posted in May , has not yet been published in a scholarly journal , which requires papers to be vetted by experts working in the same field .
Earlier analyses based on smaller data sets had similarly associated higher rates of transmission with mild temperatures as well as mild humidity .
The authors @ @ @ @ @ @ @ summer may provide “ partial relief ” to some regions but without quelling Covid-19 outbreaks .
Regions experiencing reduced risks in summer , they said , would face increased risks in the fall .
In a paper published the same month in Science , another group of researchers concluded that seasonal effects would be insignificant during the pandemic stage of the coronavirus , when the main driver is the large number of people who have never been exposed to the virus before and have no immunity .
Weather may begin to play a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the virus becomes endemic , or well-established .
It ’ s not clear , but flu ’ s behavior offers clues .
In temperate regions , flu is largely a winter phenomenon , whereas in tropical and subtropical areas it tends to occur during the rainy season , if there is one , or year-round if not .
There are various theories why .
There ’ s evidence that both cold , dry air and especially humid conditions are favorable for flu ’ s transmission .
That may have something to do with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to crowd indoors in cold and rainy weather , which could boost contagion , they spend more time outside in fine weather , reducing contamination .
There ’ s the possibility that summer lifts people ’ s melatonin and vitamin D levels , which can enhance their immune systems , and that viruses lose their punch in warmer weather because their fatty coating degrades .
The easing of flu outbreaks in the summer doesn ’ t mean the virus dies out .
Some evidence suggests it migrates to the opposite hemisphere , before @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more articles like this , please visit us at bloomberg.com


washingtonpost--2020-06-19--Barbershops Across America Lead the Reopening Effort

That , in a nutshell , is the story of Mr. Kim , as his customers call him .
At @ @ @ @ @ virus was a mere bump in the road .
After all , he survived the @ @ @ @ @ a few years ago from a fire that shut his shop for six months .
@ @ @ @ @ , his salon was as busy as ever , crowded with people with the foresight @ @ @ @ @ a haircut while they could .
He wasn ’ t prepared for the frustrations that @ @ @ @ @ anxious to get jobless benefits , wanted him to dismiss them .
He told them @ @ @ @ @ compensate them with federal aid , but at least a half-dozen banks turned him down @ @ @ @ @ about given up when one of his customers , a banker , told him PayPal @ @ @ @ @ federal aid applications online .
Within days of applying , he received $ 27,000 to @ @ @ @ @ didn ’ t collect unemployment .


washingtonpost--2020-06-19--U.S. Cases Rise 1.4%; Brazil Passes 1 Million Mark: Virus Update

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. , facing customer outrage over its mask policy , reversed course and will require guests to wear face coverings when its theaters reopen next month .
Chief Executive Officer Adam Aron said he got “ intense and immediate outcry ” from customers after the optional-mask policy was announced on Thursday .
“ Those who are unwilling to wear a mask will not be admitted or allowed to stay , ” he said .
Almost half of the new cases came from the Americas , where the outbreak continues to rage , Tedros said during the WHO @ @ @ @ @ @ @ called on countries and citizens to remain vigilant , maintain social distancing efforts , cover coughs , stay home if sick and wear masks in public .
All countries must commit to finding new infections , testing close contacts and isolating those who are sick , he said .
“ Everybody believes that it ’ s very important for the national morale , ” Hassett said at the White House , noting the National Basketball Association ’ s plan to play on a campus in Florida , with tests for everybody , has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ If the NBA is able to go down to Disney World and get it ’ s season going , then it will also be a demonstration to businesses all around the country about how to operate a certain campus safely.
” The coronavirus pandemic has hit Indonesia harder than the Asian financial crisis more than two decades ago , as the outbreak has spared no sectors of the economy , according to President Joko Widodo .
While damage from the financial crisis in 1998 was largely limited to Indonesia ’ s banking sector @ @ @ @ @ @ @ battered small and big businesses alike , Jokowi , as the president is commonly known , said in a statement .
The U.K. lowered its Covid-19 alert level by one rank to Level 3 , reflecting the fact the coronavirus is no longer spreading exponentially in the community after almost three months of lockdown .
According to government guidance , the new level allows for some relaxation of social-distancing measures -- something that had already been happening with the opening of non-essential shops this week .
The coronavirus was present in Milan and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as December , two months before the first Covid-19 cases were detected in Italy , a new study shows .
“ Traces of SARS-Cov-2 have been found in samples of waste water taken in Milan and Turin on Dec. 18 and in Bologna on Jan. 29 , ” said Giuseppina La Rosa , who led the research for a coming study from the country ’ s ISS National Health Institute .
“ More traces were detected in other test samples through January and February .
”


washingtonpost--2020-06-19--Analysis | Covid-19 Masks Aren’t a Political Statement

AMC reversed course on Friday afternoon with a statement saying that after “ an intense and immediate outcry from our customers ” it will now “ require that all AMC guests nationwide wear masks as they enter and enjoy movies at our theatres.
” In the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic , mixed messages from government leaders caused confusion around how to keep people safe , with masks thought to be unnecessary at one point .
( Plus , there were concerns of creating shortages for hospital workers , which happened anyway ) .
But given what health experts @ @ @ @ @ @ @ virus infects , there is little doubt now that face coverings help minimize the spread .
Already , as many as 450,000 Covid-19 cases may have been prevented because of state-mandated face masks in public settings , according to a study by Health Affairs , a peer-reviewed health care journal .
Health experts have determined that masks are best worn in crowded places where you ’ ll be for a long stretch of time , especially if it ’ s an enclosed area .
The close quarters of a movie theater — along @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and theme parks — are a perfect example .
Still , as of Friday afternoon , AMC ’ s rivals , Cineworld Group Plc ’ s Regal Cinemas and Cinemark Holdings Inc. , weren ’ t requiring masks unless a certain state or county does .
Places with loud talking or singing can be super-spreaders as well .
These factors are all why Walt Disney Co. and Comcast Corp. ’ s Universal are requiring face coverings at their parks , as are airlines including American and Delta for passengers and crew , even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ those efforts .
Face coverings are also more effective if everyone wears them ; the more stylish cloth masks being sold by retail chains and Etsy artisans may not provide the same level of protection as professional-grade filtering respirators , but if everyone is wearing some type of face covering , the risk of transmission is probably low .
While AMC is requiring masks for its employees , “ We thought it might be counterproductive if we forced mask wearing on those people who believe strongly that it is not necessary , ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
“ I will certainly be wearing a mask and leading by example.
” The problem with this line of thinking is that it falsely suggests wearing a mask is a personal choice deeply rooted in one ’ s beliefs .
That makes it even more difficult for any businesses to enforce without facing push-back .
As it is , that enforcement will fall to workers — often young people — who may be ill-equipped to handle an uncooperative customer if the rules seem squishy .
It ’ s not like movie theaters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have their own rules .
Retailers and restaurants generally require shoes and shirts to be worn at all times .
And everyone knows that you can ’ t bring your own food and drinks to the movies or smoke inside .
You ’ re also supposed to silence phones before a film starts .
Wearing a mask should be treated as just another point of etiquette .
Because aspects of the crisis have already been politicized in some ways , companies are understandably concerned about alienating customers at a time when they ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ traffic .
But they also risk making other customers scared to venture out again if it doesn ’ t feel safe .
As Bloomberg Opinion ’ s Noah Smith wrote this week , there ’ s good reason to believe that “ most of the economic damage from the lockdowns wasn ’ t due to stay-at-home orders , but because of public fear of the virus.
” Credit-card spending continued , he notes .
Comments like Aron ’ s undermine any attempts to require masks , which will likely make it more difficult @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and restore the economy .
If mask wearing is treated as it should be — a new safety protocol that we just may have to get used to for a while because health experts advise it — then it helps remove any irrational political sting .
The virus doesn ’ t care who you vote for , and wearing a mask certainly doesn ’ t signal support for one party or another .
What it does is to help us all finally get out of the house .
At least AMC finally came @ @


washingtonpost--2020-06-19--Analysis | Is Your Air Conditioner Keeping You Safe From Covid?

The short answer is yes , with the irritating caveat that it depends on the HVAC system and the circumstances of the space .
The most tricked-out , sophisticated air-conditioner money can buy isn ’ t going to make much of a difference if people are packed in like sardines on a subway car or at a concert venue and an infected person starts coughing .
But the presence of air conditioning likely doesn ’ t in and of itself increase your risk of getting the coronavirus .
In fact , combined with social distancing , personal hygiene and face @ @ @ @ @ @ @ are actually great tools for guarding against infection .
A typical air-conditioner system works by taking in a certain percentage of air from the outside and mixing it with air that ’ s recirculated from within the building .
When you ’ re trying to combat a virus , you want more air to come in from the outside , where it ’ s unaffected by whatever sneezes or coughs may be happening in a certain corner of the office .
But even the recirculated air gets passed through a filter before it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to the next .
The gold standard is a high-efficiency particulate air ( HEPA ) filter and the next best thing is a filter with a minimum efficiency reporting value ( MERV ) of at least 13 ( higher numbers are better ) , both of which are capable of capturing small particles such as viruses .
A study published on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ’ s website linked the spread of the coronavirus among patrons of a Guangzhou , China , restaurant to air conditioners .
But a followup @ @ @ @ @ @ @ supply ; that particular air conditioner was operating only with recirculated air , according to William Bahnfleth , a professor of architectural engineering at Pennsylvania State University and the chair of the epidemic taskforce for the American Society of Heating , Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers .
“ When we see reports of super-spreading events that apparently involve air conditioning , it usually means there ’ s little or no ventilation in the space , ” Bahnfleth said in a phone interview .
Unlike other pathogens such as tuberculosis , Covid-19 doesn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ can spread between people in different parts of a building via air that ’ s been diluted through ventilation and filtration , he said .
“ Infection is analogous to being poisoned , ” Bahnfleth said .
“ You can have one drink and you ’ re fine , but if you drink a whole bottle of hard liquor , you may die .
With pathogens , it ’ s similar .
It takes a certain number of them to have a high probability of getting an infection .
If you can reduce @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the rate at which you can be exposed drops.
” The good news is that in the U.S. , there are already minimum standards for ventilation based on square footage and expected occupancy .
These usually evolve out of recommendations from the ASHRAE trade organization and are set by local governments as part of the building code .
While there are discrepancies between regions — California , for example , is one of the most progressive in terms of air-quality requirements — these basic standards are “ reasonably protective , ” Bahnfleth said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ important step for any business is to do a full checkup and proper maintenance of existing systems before they start letting people back into their building , Chris Nelson , president of Carrier Global Corp. ’ s HVAC division , said in a phone interview .
Carrier , Trane Technologies Plc and other HVAC companies are offering indoor air-quality tests and restart services for buildings that have gone unoccupied for long stretches .
This can help companies assess whether they ’ re getting proper air distribution and the appropriate influx of outside air @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
When it comes to evaluating what upgrades are necessary , “ rather than say here ’ s the ‘ right ’ solution , we want to look at your system and equipment and see how the building operates , ” Andrew Mondell , Trane ’ s business development manager for New York City , said in a phone interview .
“ Then we can think about what ’ s possible and how it fits into budget constraints.
” The free fix if you ’ re not getting enough ventilation is to just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s easier said than done in hot and humid places such as Texas and Florida , where restaurant-goers might complain that they didn ’ t order a side of sweat with their fries .
“ As people are coming back to work and businesses are recovering , we ’ re cognizant of offering options people can afford right now , ” Nelson of Carrier said .
One such relatively pain-free and cheap upgrade is to change your filters to a higher efficiency , depending on the capabilities of your particular system .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s parameters to increase the amount of air coming in from the outside relative to the amount that ’ s recirculated .
How easy this is depends on the particular system but for many , it ’ s a simple tweak with the help of a professional .
The next level up is to look into an air scrubber with a HEPA filter .
Carrier ’ s version is the OptiClean Negative Air Machine , which Nelson says has drawn interest from health-care institutions and for the common areas of hotels and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to create pressure that prevents air from spreading between one area and another .
Because these machines are portable , there ’ s not much in the way of installation costs , so it can be a relatively inexpensive investment .
You can also add virus-killing ultra-violet light filters or other air-cleaning technology such as bipolar ionization to your HVAC system for another layer of protection .
The cost of something like that scales pretty dramatically based on the type of equipment and size of a building , from maybe a few thousand @ @ @ @ @ @ @ many times that for a massive office building , says Trane ’ s Mondell .
If you ’ re really hitting a wall on more basic ventilation and filtration fixes , you may want to replace your HVAC system with a more modern one , which is usually the most expensive route .
For consumers , this all sounds great in theory , but how do you know what businesses have made these assessments and upgrades and which haven ’ t ?
The truth is , without a technical background and a look @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t .
But there are some things you can watch out for .
Odor or mustiness can be a sign of poor ventilation .
While some window AC units do allow for ventilation , they typically aren ’ t very effective at bringing in outside air , Bahnfleth said .
So if a business relies on one and isn ’ t doing something else to dilute the concentration of potential virus particles in the air like opening windows or limiting occupancy , that can be a worry point .
Bathrooms sometimes get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in smaller enterprises , and often aren ’ t well-ventilated .
A study published this week in the journal Physics of Fluids found that flushing the toilet can create a cloud of aerosol droplets that rises nearly three feet and may linger in the air or land on nearby surfaces , according to the New York Times .
Keeping the exhaust fan running should help , Mondell said , and the bathroom could also be a good spot for an air-scrubber .


washingtonpost--2020-06-08--Analysis | New York City’s Reopening Rides on Subways and Elevators

New York is starting in the right place .
Its reopening is slow and dependent on a variety of metrics that other regions have ignored .
The first phase allows a restart for manufacturing , construction , and wholesale businesses , as well as a limited resumption of retail sales .
Even its second planned phase in July , which would allow outdoor dining and more offices to open , is substantially less aggressive than what some states did as soon as April .
The challenge lies in remaining vigilant with each step the city takes toward returning to normal @ @ @ @ @ @ @ haul .
The reopening problems New York faces aren ’ t unique .
Other cities also have to figure out how to protect passengers using mass transit , ensure safety is maintained getting in and out of office buildings and make plans for the new school year .
The difference is scale .
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority carries far more people than other U.S. transit systems , while the New York City public-school system ’ s one-million-plus student body dwarfs that of anywhere else in the nation , surpassing No .
2 Los @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
And the schools operate in tighter spaces .
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention continue to produce reopening guidance .
It ’ s not always helpful for New York .
The agency , for example , recommends that workers avoid using public transit to get to work .
That isn ’ t an option for most of the city ’ s workforce .
New York will have to find solutions on its own .
There ’ s been lots of pondering but few decisions made on how to keep subways safe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Monday , and there ’ s been little in the way of public guidance on the far greater challenge of maintaining distancing when millions more join .
It ought to be a priority , given the tendency of the virus to spread in crowded , poorly ventilated spaces .
Nightly cleanings are only a start .
The transit agency ’ s constantly overburdened budget has also been badly stressed by plunging ridership .
Early comments from Mayor Bill de Blasio and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo suggest that they ’ ll be relying @ @ @ @ @ @ @ crowded trains and buses , advice that is often incompatible with getting anywhere on time .
The state requires masks in crowded places , and the MTA plans to hand them out to riders who lack them , at least from June 8 to June 12 .
The state has taken a light touch with face-covering enforcement throughout the crisis , and having enough staff and masks on hand as reopening expands will be challenging .
Suggested symptom checks in office buildings are time-consuming theater .
While limiting elevator capacity to 50 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to a desk every day will be an ordeal .
It will get old fast , and compliance is likely to fade as more people return to work .
The decision on how and when schools will reopen won ’ t come until July and may be accompanied by enormous budget cuts that will undermine safety efforts .
On the positive side , New York is investing in significant contact tracing efforts , which should help catch cases and guide policy going forward .
However , the city is still some ways from @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
These efforts will be complicated should recent protests over race and police treatment persist .
Crowds and tightly packed marches could lead to more cases and will be a challenge for tracers .
And as with all other public health efforts , tracing relies on participation from New York ’ s citizens .
Trust isn ’ t guaranteed at a time of increased civic tensions ; authorities ’ response , outreach and ability to win cooperation from the public will be key to early detection and containment of any future outbreaks .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ back activity once people taste freedom .
Failing to do so or losing the buy-in needed to respond to a spike could be tragic .
The city and state need to communicate thresholds for renewed restrictions and figure out a strategy for possible targeted shutdowns .
New York may have a larger margin of error than it did in the spring , given the comparatively high degree of acquired immunity in a population that is fully aware of how bad things can get .
Even so , it ’ s important to note @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still potentially at risk .
The peculiarities that made it an outlier haven ’ t vanished , and should be top of mind for inhabitants and leaders going forward .


washingtonpost--2020-06-08--Analysis | Hydroxychloroquine Farce Has Tragic Consequences

Last week , highly respected and peer-reviewed journal The Lancet retracted a bombshell study that suggested hydroxychloroquine , a contested potential treatment for Covid-19 , was linked to an increased risk of death and heart ailments .
The sheer scale of the retrospective analysis , drawn from more than 96,000 patients in 671 hospitals , had been enough to convince institutions running several global trials of the drug ( including the World Health Organization ) to slam on the brakes .
Only afterward did odd inconsistencies in the data , such as an inflated number of victims in Australia , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ provider , Surgisphere Corp. , had compiled it .
A lack of convincing answers — flagged by the paper ’ s own co-authors — led to the retraction .
Other studies in other journals have subsequently been retracted .
This kind of embarrassment is nothing new , even for The Lancet , which in 2010 retracted a paper linking autism to vaccines — 12 years after it was first published .
We should be thankful this case was dealt with quickly .
But the damage can ’ t be undone .
Yet more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has been lost , and the retraction played into the hands of conspiracy theorists who promote the unsubstantiated idea that special interests want hydroxychloroquine , a generic drug , out of the running .
( The drug ’ s top supporter , French scientist Didier Raoult , used the hashtag “ # LancetGate ” on social media . )
Surgisphere has defended its approach to consolidating medical records using artificial intelligence and machine learning , according to Bloomberg News , and says it ’ s not responsible for the source data .
This @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public , the media and the scientific community evaluate research , even the gold standard of peer-reviewed papers .
In theory , it should be hard to game the system that underpins journals , which ask relevant experts to confidentially review papers ahead of publication .
But , in practice , there are problems .
Over the years , researchers have pointed to a lack of consistency and objectivity in responses by peers ; a 2012 study found that when papers have been retracted there was often some kind of misconduct involved , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lack of credit and scientific glory involved in reviewing a paper , along with the knowledge that other people will analyze the study too , might be hurting the quality of gate-keeping .
Whatever flaws already existed in scientific research have been supercharged by the pandemic .
Hurried trials have sacrificed rigor for speed , and there has been a “ rush to publish ” the results in scientific journals , according to Jeffrey Aronson , clinical pharmacologist at the Center for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University .
In the case of hydroxychloroquine @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of information out has led to hastily drawn conclusions on both its effectiveness and its dangers in treating Covid-19 .
That ’ s meant that the political and social-media fights over the drug have preceded clear results .
This has done sufferers of Covid-19 no favors : While the peak of the novel coronavirus outbreak has come and gone across most of Asia and Europe , major trials have been repeatedly delayed as exaggerated hype and conflicting studies make enrolling patients harder .
We still don ’ t know how decisive a new @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , finding that hydroxychloroquine offered no benefit , will be .
More caution , more rigor and more tightening of the peer-review system would be positive consequences of this debacle .
But so much time has been lost already .
The danger now is that if a severe flare-up in infections were to strike , we would still lack clear evidence of any existing , cheap treatment — and we would also have frittered away the public trust needed to successfully impose measures such as lockdowns or quarantines .
“ Follow the science @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rallying cry much longer .


washingtonpost--2020-06-06--Analysis | Mask or No Mask? Why the Guidance Has Been Shifting

A review of 172 studies funded by the WHO and published June 1 concluded that the evidence suggests mask wearing protects people in the general public against infection by the coronaviruses responsible for the Covid-19 pandemic , severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS ) , and Middle East respiratory syndrome ( MERS ) .
The previous evidence , suggesting that widespread use by the public of face masks may have reduced transmission in outbreaks of SARS and influenza , had not generally been considered conclusive .
The evidence so far is that the coronavirus causing Covid-19 spreads in respiratory droplets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infected person coughs , sneezes or even speaks .
These droplets are usually heavy enough to fall immediately to the ground or surrounding surfaces .
Transmission can occur if the droplets reach the mouth , nose or eye of someone nearby , either directly or from an unwashed hand that ’ s touched a contaminated surface .
When an infected person wears a face cover , the droplets can be caught by the mask rather than being expelled .
This could be especially useful against Covid-19 because evidence suggests that a third to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ have not yet developed symptoms and so may remain out and about .
In theory , wearing a face covering could also help protect people who are uninfected , if it stops them from touching their face .
As the pandemic has progressed , companies have begun offering innumerable styles , and some people are hand-sewing them from fabric or improvising them using bandannas or scarves .
Medical masks are regulated devices that come in two types .
Surgical masks are the loose-fitting , one-size-fits-all kind that are rectangular when flat .
These @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infected with the virus .
Health-care providers who deal with such patients are directed to wear a more sophisticated mask called a respirator , which is designed to protect the user .
Outside of health facilities , the WHO ’ s new guidance calls for medical masks only for people 60 or older and those with underlying conditions , “ in situations where physical distancing is not possible.
” They come in different sizes so they can be fit to the wearer ’ s face to provide a tight seal .
That forces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ device ’ s filter rather than through gaps on the sides .
They are designed to keep out not only respiratory droplets but also smaller aerosolized particles that can carry infectious agents and float for a time through the air .
Airborne transmission has not been reported for Covid-19 , but there is a risk that certain medical procedures , such as tracheotomy and airway suction , can generate virally contaminated aerosols .
Respirators are uncomfortable to wear for a long period of time .
They retain heat and exert pressure on the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ make it difficult to breathe , which can make them unsuitable for those with cardiac and respiratory conditions .
Scarcity among health-care providers , U.S .
Surgeon General Jerome Adams has said , raises the overall risk to the community : Doctors and nurses who get infected can spread the virus to other people and , once sick , can ’ t look after patients .
The argument is that everyone is better off if medical masks are reserved for those who most certainly need them and who can ’ t avoid exposure @ @ @ @ @ @ @ be .
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued guidance on how to conserve limited gear and what to do if it runs short .
The measures , which don ’ t meet usual standards , include using respirators beyond their designated shelf life and wearing the same one to attend to several patients without removing it .
The agency said that limited reuse of respirators might become necessary but counseled caution .
It said a last resort would be to turn to untested versions , including homemade masks .
Some @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , with several recruiting the public to sew masks .
In guidance issued in April , the WHO said the use of masks by healthy members of the public may create a false sense of security , leading people to neglect essential measures such as hand-washing and keeping at a distance from other people .
It also said wearing a mask can encourage people to touch their faces , which can increase the chances of becoming infected with the coronavirus .
Health care professionals emphasize that if you ’ re going to use @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do so correctly or you could become infected through contact with it : Put it on with clean hands , replace it as soon as it becomes damp , remove it from behind without touching the front , wash your hands afterward , and dispose of the mask properly .
The WHO counsels against reusing masks that are made for a single use .


washingtonpost--2020-06-05--Analysis | Warren Buffett’s Next Bulk Purchase Should Be Costco

At Berkshire ’ s virtual shareholder meeting last month , Buffett signaled that the Covid-19 pandemic hasn ’ t afforded him deal opportunities at bargain-basement prices the way past economic meltdowns have .
Despite the nationwide shutdowns that are just starting to lift and a soaring unemployment rate , the S & P 500 Index is only 8 % off its February all-time high .
That ’ s partly due to aggressive actions taken by the Federal Reserve to mitigate the crisis , though one can ’ t deny that there exists an astonishing disconnect between stock prices and the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Costco wouldn ’ t be a typical crisis-era bet for Buffett in this regard .
The shares are up , not down , this year and its operations have carried on throughout the pandemic .
Zoom , Netflix , TikTok , Costco — the retailer is right up there with those services that have become centerpieces of the stay-at-home recession .
But in so many other ways a Costco deal would still be classic Buffett .
For starters , Buffett already likes Costco .
Berkshire has owned the stock for two decades @ @ @ @ @ @ @ at about $ 1.3 billion currently .
Buffett ’ s business partner Charlie Munger , the 96-year-old vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway , also sits on Costco ’ s board .
Last year , Buffett even publicly marveled at Costco ’ s in-house Kirkland brand , which at that point had $ 39 billion of annual sales .
“ Here ’ s somebody like Costco , establishes a brand called Kirkland and it ’ s doing $ 39 billion — more than virtually any food company , ” including Kraft Heinz Co. , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s largest shareholder .
Costco has proven during this crisis that it has a durable brand and a wide competitive moat , two of the key attributes Buffett looks for .
More than 90 % of Costco ’ s U.S. club members renew , and globally the rate is nearly as high at 88 % .
Those warehouse memberships are a predictable source of cash flow , almost akin to Berkshire ’ s insurance float that Buffett uses to invest .
While the majority of Costco ’ s 787 warehouse clubs are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does have locations in Mexico , the U.K. , Japan , South Korea , Taiwan and Australia .
It ’ s also expanding in China , offering Buffett exposure to the country ’ s growing middle class .
Costco ’ s same-store sales have risen 6.5 % on average for the last 10 quarters , topping other U.S. mass retailers including Walmart Inc. , the parent of Sam ’ s Club .
Costco also generated more than $ 1,300 of sales per square foot in fiscal 2019 — more than any of its @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a bump from all the panic-shopping , and at 34 times earnings , Costco ’ s valuation certainly isn ’ t what Buffett would call cheap .
But Costco should continue to fare well in a post-virus America , especially if it leads some residents to ditch cities for suburbs and spend more time at home .
After the meat and toilet paper shortages , more shoppers may even turn to bulk-buying to be better prepared for future lockdowns or shortages .
The biggest hurdle to a takeover is that Costco ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ precisely the amount of cash Berkshire has available .
Berkshire ’ s last major acquisition was Precision Castparts , a maker of airplane engine parts , for $ 37 billion in 2016 .
After years spent searching for his next target , Buffett signaled recently that his hunt is on hold , suggesting that he thinks the crisis could still get worse before it gets better .
“ The cash position isn ’ t that huge when I look at the worst-case possibilities , ” he told a stunned audience last month that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to hear something a little more upbeat or at least hopeful from the Oracle of Omaha .
( 1 ) Berkshire could simply increase its stake in Costco , a stable holding that pays a 70-cent quarterly dividend .
But it wasn ’ t all that long ago that Buffett spoke of the possibility of an acquisition Costco ’ s size .
“ If a $ 100 billion deal came along that Charlie [ Munger ] and I really liked , we ’ d get it done , ” he said in May @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 90 in August , it would be uncharacteristic to not want to do one last splashy transaction .
It also wouldn ’ t be the first time Berkshire acquired one of its stock holdings .
Berkshire owned shares in Precision Castparts before that deal .
It also took a stake in the BNSF railroad in 2007 and kept adding to that position until it eventually purchased the whole company .
Berkshire ’ s ownership of Geico even dates back to the 1950s when Buffett first bought shares and as a curious young investor @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s former CEO , Lorimer Davidson , as Buffett often retells it .


washingtonpost--2020-06-08--Analysis | OPEC’s Doctrine of Mutually Reassured Destruction

OPEC+ , like OPEC before it , operates under a doctrine of mutually assured destruction .
Any member that doesn ’ t abide by production quotas runs the risk of annoying fellow members – especially Saudi Arabia – to the point where those members abandon their own commitments , flooding the oil market to the detriment of all .
This tactic extends to non-OPEC members , too , as the group can decide to open the taps to punish external producers that get too exuberant .
The problem with this type of oil weapon is the mutual bit : It @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than a surgical strike .
Everyone suffers the fallout .
That didn ’ t change this weekend .
The added dictum of members being punished if they don ’ t make up shortfalls to their commitments at a later date represents a new trigger , not a new weapon .
The pact of mutual destruction has been reassured .
There has always been a performative dimension to OPEC in its various guises .
This aspect has been especially pronounced this year .
Only three months ago , Saudi Arabia and Russia began a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for further supply cuts to meet the challenge of Covid-19 .
A month later , they reversed and agreed to a truce as OPEC+ announced deep cuts to production , with President Donald Trump inserting himself as broker .
Yet the prime mover in that turn of events wasn ’ t Trump or Prince Abdulaziz .
It was a virus .
That hasn ’ t changed .
Oil demand is rising back from the abyss , and surprisingly positive U.S. jobs numbers released Friday added to a growing sense of optimism that has @ @ @ @ @ @ @ $ 40 to almost positive $ 40 in the space of seven weeks .
But the economic damage inflicted by Covid-19 is deep ; how else could U.S. unemployment above 13 % suddenly be regarded as a win ?
Second-wave risks remain , as do other ills facing the oil market , such as the Sino-U.S. trade war , which Covid-19 has exacerbated if anything .
In other words , OPEC+ cohesion , lost and then suddenly restored , is a function of a common enemy : the virus .
Coming into the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Most of its members , including Saudi Arabia , aren ’ t built for oil prices below $ 60 a barrel .
Yet $ 60-plus oil encouraged more output from non-members , especially U.S. shale producers .
Deploying the oil weapon in 2014 certainly hurt shale , but an infusion of new capital enabled it to weather the storm .
Meanwhile , the economic fallout blew back on OPEC to the point where it not only abandoned that strategy , it acknowledged defeat by throwing in its lot with Russia and a few @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , it has been trading away market share for higher , but still inadequate , oil prices , which was one reason why Russia bridled at further cuts in March .
One thing that is helping OPEC+ this time around is that shale ’ s own track record of dismal returns means a bailout from the stock market or bondholders isn ’ t forthcoming this time .
The fracking industry is cutting output swiftly and must consolidate , meaning future production growth is likely to be subdued compared to the pre-crash pace .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ dilemma are intact .
Its members remain dependent on oil and need prices far higher than today ’ s levels to fund themselves .
They must withhold supply to drain the glut of inventory that has built up .
Yet with higher prices , the temptation of countries such as Iraq or Nigeria to bust through targets to shore up stability will be irresistible .
Meanwhile , shale producers will emerge from rationalization less exuberant than they once were but still more than able to take advantage of a rally .
In response @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the same method of discipline it has before : flooding the market until everyone , its own members included , struggle to breathe .
One added complication : Trump ’ s damaged electoral prospects mean he is likely to threaten security consequences for Riyadh if it does anything to hurt shale producers in red states this summer .
On Monday morning , Prince Abdulaziz spoke of OPEC+ adopting “ central bank ” tactics in managing the oil market .
But central banks can intervene in financial markets in multiple ways , and they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ In contrast , OPEC+ can either raise oil output or curb it .
It is the lack of economic flexibility inherent to OPEC+ members that leaves the group with only the bluntest of tools at its disposal .
Faced with an inscrutable enemy like Covid-19 , it ’ s doing about as well as it can .
Don ’ t mistake that for anything more elaborate .


washingtonpost--2020-02-07--Analysis | How Can the Coronavirus Possibly Be Good for Stocks?

Recall 2018 , when China staged one of the world ’ s worst routs .
The selloff began well before the trade war as investors braced for record corporate defaults , even in the new-economy electronics-manufacturing and technology sectors .
Later in the year , stocks slid further as companies struggled to meet their margin calls .
More than 20 % of listed companies had pledged roughly a third or more of their shares to meet financing needs .
This all happened because in late 2017 China declared war on shadow banking , the main channel of credit for private @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unveiled far-reaching rules for its banks , requiring them to stick to traditional loan books and ditch creative wealth-management products that had aided the cash-starved private sector in the past .
Last year , murmurs were growing louder that Beijing ’ s war on shadow banking can ’ t last .
After all , China Inc. was suffering from two years of record defaults , pinched both by an unanticipated trade war and new , draconian credit policies .
But thus far , Beijing ’ s top policymakers have resisted bankers ’ intensive @ @ @ @ @ @ @ grace period until the end of this year to comply fully ; another extension would be a tacit admission that the new rules were ill-designed in the first place and the experiment is a failure .
The one thing China ’ s bureaucrats dislike most is losing face .
The coronavirus has changed the narrative .
Last weekend , regulators said that they would agree to another extension for banks struggling to meet the new rules .
Caixin , a Chinese media outlet , recently reported that the grace period could be pushed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Over the past week , various arms of China ’ s sprawling bureaucracy have come out to stabilize its financial markets , with the People ’ s Bank of China on Monday making the biggest single-day cash injection since 2004 .
Of all the new policies that sprang up , however , a complete halt to the war on shadow banking would be the most helpful .
Private businesses never had much access to traditional bank loans anyhow , so the PBOC cutting the loan prime rate – interest rates that banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won ’ t do the trick .
Meanwhile , in the past two years , plenty of good companies have gone bad because they couldn ’ t refinance their working capital needs .
This also explains why this week Shenzhen ’ s ChiNext Index has outperformed the blue-chip Shanghai Composite Index , which is filled with state-owned enterprises .
By nature , we Chinese are an optimistic and forgiving bunch .
Rather than lamenting how an initial health cover-up in the incompetent Wuhan government caused a nationwide crisis , investors are looking at @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Beijing can toss away its misguided war on shadow banking and design a smarter one that gives the private sector some room to breathe .


washingtonpost--2020-02-07--Analysis | There’s a Lesson for Luxury in the Coronavirus Crisis

Just two weeks ago , the company shrugged off disruption in Hong Kong to lift its outlook for sales growth excluding currency movements to a percentage in the low single digits , while anticipating that the operating margin would be broadly stable in the year to March 2020 .
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said Friday ’ s warning could imply a 5 % cut to 2020 earnings .
Burberry is particularly exposed to the epidemic .
It generates about 40 % of its sales from Chinese consumers at home and abroad .
That ’ s above the 35 % for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to Bain & Co. and Altagamma .
So shutting some shops on the mainland and reducing hours at others has an out-sized effect .
It ’ s too early to know what the end result will be for Burberry and the industry as a whole , but one key lesson is coming into sharp relief : While Chinese shoppers are a powerful force for the industry , no brand should neglect their customers closer to home , or stop trying to drum up demand in other corners of the world .
When the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ because of a government crackdown on extravagance and gyrating stock markets , luxury houses all pivoted toward shoppers in Europe and the U.S .
They have lost sight of the need to foster these markets since .
For Burberry , it ’ s a particularly sensitive time to face such uncertainty in its biggest market .
The group is in the midst of trying to revive its brand , best known for its black , white , tan and red check .
While new iterations , such as the TB Monogram , are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ prioritize .
It ’ s now unclear whether a fashion show in Shanghai in April , will go ahead .
The first Chinese showcase under new designer Riccardo Tisci will have specially created merchandise , clearly a way to build Burberry ’ s profile amid its rejuvenation efforts .
Given these characteristics — high Chinese exposure plus a turnaround strategy — Prada SpA also looks to be at risk , and the Italian maker of the iconic nylon bag has already closed some stores in mainland China and Macau .
The list of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on China and Hong Kong is long .
Swatch Group AG and Richemont are the most exposed , according to analysts at Bernstein .
And Gucci , which accounts for 60 % of French parent Kering SA ’ s sales and 80 % of its operating profit , has been a hit with Chinese shoppers over the past three years .
Anyone who has witnessed the proliferation of Gucci T-shirts , not all the real thing , in cities from Shanghai to Beijing would attest to its popularity .
By contrast , Bernard @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better prepared to handle such a shock .
With brands including Moet & Chandon champagne , pop star Rihanna ’ s beauty line and soon Tiffany & Co. jewelry , it has broad diversification by both geography and product range .
Last year , for example , 24 % of its sales from the U.S .
But given the whole industry ’ s reliance on Chinese big spenders , no luxury or consumer brand with exposure to the them , wherever they shop , will be immune .
Burberry said spending in Europe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by the outbreak , but it expected conditions here to worsen too .
This week , Coach owner Tapestry Inc. , Michael Kors and Versace parent Capri Holdings Ltd. and Estee Lauder Cos. all lowered earnings guidance , citing the virus .
Even luxury parka maker Canada Goose Holdings Inc. , which has a strong following in the U.S. and Europe , has felt the impact of the outbreak .
On Friday it lowered its full-year sales and profit guidance .
Global luxury sales could expand by just 1 % this year , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ what they now expect to be a brutal 20 % decline in Chinese demand in the first half .
Before the outbreak , they were expecting the industry ’ s sales to grow by 5 % in 2020 .
While luxury shares have fallen over the past three weeks , valuations remain close to 10-year highs .
As I have noted , the stocks have proved remarkably resilient in the face of everything from trade skirmishes to protests in Hong Kong .