washingtonpost--2020-01-24--Analysis | Luxury’s Dependence on China Gets Tested

With the death toll reaching 25 on Friday , and China restricting travel for 40 million people on the eve of Lunar New Year , the question of what it all means for demand for high-end watches and handbags is obviously of minor concern .
Yet it ’ s an unwanted reminder of just how dependent the industry is on Chinese consumers .
Shoppers from the world ’ s most populous nation , be they in Shanghai , Singapore or San Francisco , probably accounted for about 35 % of global luxury goods sales last year , according to Bain @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s more , they generated the lion ’ s share — 90 % — of all growth .
There ’ s no reason to think they won ’ t be just as crucial to the sector ’ s performance this year too .
One analyst , Flavio Cereda at Jefferies , says he expects the bulk of his estimated 5 % sales growth ( excluding currency movements ) in 2020 global luxury sales to come from the Chinese , putting their expected impact at 4 percentage points .
Some companies in particular , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Group AG and Cartier-owner Richemont , have an exposure above the industry average .
It ’ s too early to say what will be the impact of this new coronavirus that ’ s gripping China as hundreds of millions of people travel for the Lunar New Year — traditionally a time when revelers spend on goods from the top luxury brands .
On Friday , the World Health Organization stopped short of calling it a global health emergency .
After first appearing in the central Chinese city of Wuhan , it has spread @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Thailand and the U.S. Chinese authorities have been working to revise or cancel planned holiday activities in an attempt to stop any further spreading .
Starting on Saturday , Disneyland Shanghai is being closed temporarily .
If the crisis intensifies , it could become more problematic .
People wanting to avoid the risk of catching the virus will likely curtail anything but the most necessary travel , and avoid crowded areas , with shopping malls among them .
That will hurt companies that managed to make up some lost Hong Kong sales @ @ @ @ @ @ @ It will also hit sales to Chinese tourists the world over .
Although Hong Kong and Macau , which has canceled all of its Lunar New Year festivities , remain the most popular destination for Chinese travelers , Japan , the U.S. , Italy and France are also high on their itineraries .
Chinese tourists are the highest spenders across most of Europe , according to payments provider Planet , typically splashing out for goods worth about four times that of domestic shoppers .
In the U.S. , a number of retailers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , have already said they ’ ve been impacted by having fewer tourists due to the dollar ’ s strength .
Even though Chinese shoppers have recently been spending more at home , as excursions to Hong Kong fall , they still make the bulk of their purchases when they travel , a time when people are more inclined to blow the budget on impulse buys .
Any slowdown in international travel would also hit demand in duty-free shops , including luxury behemoth LVMH ’ s DFS business and Dufry AG , in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .


washingtonpost--2020-01-24--Analysis | What You Need to Know About China’s Virus Outbreak

There is always a concern when a new pathogen emerges in a population because people typically lack immunity to it , and there usually aren ’ t specific treatments or vaccines available .
Novel coronaviruses ( not seen in humans before ) represent a particular concern because they have been known to spark complicated outbreaks that have sickened thousands of people , like SARS did as it swept across the globe from southern China .
The outbreak in Wuhan , a city of 11 million , that began in mid-December appears severe .
Additional cases have been confirmed elsewhere in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ them nearby , involving travelers arriving from Wuhan .
Initially it seemed the virus wasn ’ t transmitted readily between people , reducing the potential of it spawning a SARS-like outbreak .
But on Jan. 20 the World Health Organization confirmed “ some limited human-to-human transmission , ” not just from animals to humans .
Chinese state media also reported health-care workers had been infected .
That put the Wuhan virus in a category similar to SARS .
At this stage , it appears to be less virulent , and less deadly , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of deaths linked to the virus , at least some were people who already were seriously ill .
Regular pneumonia , a viral or bacterial infection that inflames the air sacs in one or both lungs , kills about 50,000 people annually in the U.S .
Mainly fever , with some patients experiencing fatigue , a dry cough and difficulty breathing .
Chest X-rays have shown invasive lesions of both lungs , the WHO said .
However , only cases requiring hospitalization have been reported so far .
It ’ s possible other @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or only mild , symptoms .
Many people have recovered and been discharged from the hospital .
Chinese authorities identified a novel coronavirus in one of the pneumonia patients in Wuhan after conducting gene sequencing .
The WHO has labeled the new virus 2019-nCoV .
A report done for the International Journal of Infectious Diseases found it is at least 70 % similar in its genetic makeup to the SARS virus , but “ appears clinically milder ” in terms of severity , fatality rate and transmissibility .
Unlike during the SARS @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a lack of transparency , it made genomic data publicly available quickly .
That has enabled scientists anywhere to study the genetic fingerprint of the virus for clues about where and how it might have emerged .
Investigators in Wuhan have focused on the seafood market , where most people infected early in the outbreak either worked or shopped frequently .
It has been closed since Jan. 1 , though cases continued to appear , including in people who hadn ’ t gone there .
That raised the possibility that the pathogen is @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered resolute efforts to curb its spread ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday , which fell this year on Jan. 24 and for which many people travel .
Authorities in Wuhan suspended public transport as well as outbound flights and train services , and nearby municipalities restricted the use of transport and public sites .
China ’ s health commission classified the coronavirus in the Class B infectious diseases category , which includes SARS , while taking preventive steps typically used for the most-serious ailments , such as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ isolated to prevent any spread .
Health officials are also looking for , screening and monitoring people the patients had contact with , and searching for current and past cases that may have been treated in medical institutions throughout the city .
Environmental samples from the closed market have been taken for analysis .
Outside China , airports have begun screening some passengers for symptoms , including in the U.S. SARS is thought to have spread indirectly from a “ wildlife reservoir , ” believed to be bats , to humans via masked @ @ @ @ @ @ @ markets .
The SARS outbreak began in late 2002 in Guangdong province and spread across the border to Hong Kong and beyond .
The WHO issued a global health alert in March 2003 and didn ’ t declare the outbreak contained until July 5 that year .
China ’ s tourism , transportation and retail sectors were heavily hit as people stayed home ; domestic consumption fell sharply , as did real estate prices and financial markets .
The epidemic subtracted an estimated 0.8 percentage point from gross domestic product growth in China @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Daily report that cited a National Bureau of Statistics official .
A 2003 academic study estimated the global economic cost at close to $ 40 billion or more .
Coronaviruses are named for their crown-like shape .
There ’ s a large family of them .
Some transmit easily from person to person , while others do not .
There ’ s growing recognition of the role of coronaviruses in severe cases of pneumonia .
The WHO says that new coronaviruses emerge periodically in different areas globally , and several known versions are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ infected humans .
They tend to morph and mutate a lot , which means the level of risk they pose can change the longer they circulate .
Diseases transmissible from animals to humans , sometimes referred to as “ zoonoses , ” comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases .

Why did this happen?
Please make sure your browser supports JavaScript and cookies and that you are not blocking them from loading. For more information you can review our Terms of Service and Cookie Policy.


washingtonpost--2020-04-04--Analysis | Why I’m Coming Around On Wearing a Face Mask

Living in Asia later , I gradually got used to being around masked faces .
Occasionally , I even saw the point — for instance on days when the sandstorms from the Gobi Desert covered Beijing in a rust-colored haze .
But masks weren ’ t for me .
And then , when I was living in Hong Kong , the SARS epidemic broke out .
Within a few days in early 2003 , the entire city seemed to be masked .
And whenever something becomes ubiquitous , it invariably shapes and reflects culture .
This being Hong Kong , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ adults attached bling to theirs .
Some soon had faux-Gucci , faux-Prada and faux-Luis Vuitton gauzes covering their faces , while taxi drivers oddly seemed to dangle their masks from one ear only , lest they obstruct the cigarette smoking .
Mask style became self-expression .
Eventually , I strapped one on too — and promptly became an example of one major argument against masks .
It was a hot and muggy day , hay fever season had started , and I hadn ’ t shaved .
Within minutes , my face was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ zone , and my unwashed hands fiddled with the mask every which way .
The looks I got in the supermarket were categorical .
So the mask came off .
To this day , I ’ m amazed I didn ’ t get infected .
Nonetheless , when the opportunity came up , my fiancee and I got ourselves a handful of respirators .
Because you never know .
We ’ ve carried that stash with us all these years .
Now , living in Berlin , we ’ ve pulled them out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about using them finally .
After all , as Covid-19 spreads and still guards so many of its medical secrets , everything is pointing toward the West becoming like the East , with masks becoming the norm .
Austria has made them mandatory in public , even though they ’ re “ alien to our culture , ” as Chancellor Sebastian Kurz conceded .
So have Slovakia , the Czech Republic , Israel and others .
Even the hold-outs seem to be headed that way .
As recently as February 29 , the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Seriously people — STOP BUYING MASKS !
They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching # Coronavirus , but if healthcare providers can ’ t get them to care for sick patients , it puts them and our communities at risk !
” Now he ’ s apparently reconsidering , as are the White House and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
Even the World Health Organization is taking another look .
So far , it has been recommending that only health-care workers and people with symptoms wear masks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ washing hands and keeping social distance .
The logic is in part the same as the surgeon general ’ s : There are only so many masks to go around , and if random people hoard , those in need may not get them .
The more disquieting reason , as ever with Covid-19 , is that we just don ’ t know enough .
There ’ s a heated and very technical debate raging among scientists about whether SARS-CoV-2 is spread by “ droplets ” ( which don ’ t travel far @ @ @ @ @ @ @ go a lot farther ) , and about how long the airborne virus can stay infectious while swirling through the air .
Surfaces are definitely dangerous ; the air less so .
But how much less ?
Moreover , it ’ s not clear whether masks would block an airborne virus from coming in .
The top-notch N95 respirators worn by surgeons probably do ; the standard-issue surgical masks worn by most nurses might ; homemade masks might or might not .
And all that assumes the masks are worn correctly and responsibly @ @ @ @ @ @ @ any finger touching .
That rules out young children and possibly , based on experience , me .
In the case of Covid-19 , though , this reasoning may be upside down .
One problem with the coronavirus is that it ’ s so often asymptomatic .
I wouldn ’ t necessarily know if I had it , even though I might infect you by exhaling globs of saliva .
So a mask on my face wouldn ’ t primarily have to keep the virus out , but in .
Moreover , by @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to strangers on the bus or in the supermarket that I ’ m trying to protect them .
Simultaneously , I ’ m taking the stigma off those people who wear masks because they know they ’ re infected .
If we all put something on , even flimsy bandanas , we ’ re showing that we ’ re in this together .
What more of us in the West are now realizing is that wearing a mask is the new way of showing respect .
This is ironic in places like Germany @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that is , two months ago ) had a debate about whether to ban Muslim women from wearing niqabs in schools .
“ In an open society , we have to show our faces to talk openly with one another , ” the governor of Baden-Wuerttemberg said at the time .
Now it ’ s the other way around .
In a resilient and cohesive society , we may have to mask our faces .


washingtonpost--2020-04-04--Mnuchin’s Unfilled Jobs Leave Treasury Stretched in Virus Crisis

Of 20 Senate confirmed roles reporting to the secretary , seven aren ’ t filled , and four are occupied by acting officials .
The domestic finance unit , which should be handling the brunt of the work related to the coronavirus outbreak , is particularly empty .
It has no top boss and is missing three assistant secretaries , who are the next level down .
Treasury ’ s head of legislative affairs , Brian McGuire , left the agency while rescue legislation was still being hammered out .
McGuire worked on the second phase of the virus-aid bill @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the year , according to a person familiar with the matter .
Mnuchin , who boasts about his tendency to micro-manage , hasn ’ t chosen a new chief of staff since the departure of Eli Miller to Blackstone Group LP a year ago .
The lack of leadership and expertise , bank executives say , was on display this week as the department rushed to meet its goal of beginning the small business loan program on Friday .
Lenders complained they were urged to start pushing money out the door without detailed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ process the loans .
One problem , the banks said , was how to show they ’ d verified the identity of applicants , a requirement of anti-money laundering laws .
The Treasury vacancies are forcing the few senior managers who remain to stretch their job descriptions , sometimes dramatically .
Deputy Secretary Justin Muzinich , for example , now oversees two-thirds of the agency : domestic finance and the sanctions office , neither of which has an undersecretary , the top official at the units .
Mnuchin must now help to rescue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s in addition to his regular full-time duties overseeing a dozen sanctions programs , monitoring the $ 16 trillion Treasuries market , and consulting with finance ministers across the globe -- all of which are more important than ever as the economic crisis deepens .
“ That becomes a lot for one individual , ” said Clay Lowery , who worked at Treasury when the global financial crisis began during the George W. Bush administration .
Mnuchin ’ s team has done a “ pretty darn good job , but it probably @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on the domestic finance side.
” Still , as his postponed meeting with the Financial Stability Oversight Council shows , the 57-year-old is operating more as a one-man band than as the leader of the president ’ s economic team .
And he can ’ t be everywhere at once .
“ That needs to be resolved over time , by bringing in people to take part of that responsibility off their shoulders , because they also have their day-jobs to do , ” said Lowery .
“ You don ’ t want @ @ @ @ @ @ @ even inefficiency holding things up.
” The U.S. economy may shrink an annualized 34 % in the second quarter , according to Goldman Sachs .
Nearly 10 million Americans lost their jobs in the past two weeks , as many as in the first six months of the Great Recession more than a decade ago .
The FSOC meeting that Mnuchin postponed was eventually held three days later , after which consequential decisions were announced : Regulators will seek to keep financial markets open , despite wild market swings triggering circuit breakers , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to focus on the liquidity shortfall that mortgage service firms may soon face .
As the department ’ s work becomes increasingly urgent due to the coronavirus , officials have reached out for advice to a number of ex-Treasury staff members who were instrumental in fighting the last financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 , according to people familiar with the matter .
Mnuchin is also considering bringing in people with experience in the markets and investment banking to assist , and the Treasury is also contracting out some work .
This week @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Street firms -- PJT Partners Inc. , Moelis & Co. and Perella Weinberg Partners -- to assist with the loan programs .
The financial crisis rescue , led at first by Secretary Henry Paulson during the Bush administration , consumed the Treasury Department even though it played out slowly compared to the coronavirus pandemic , giving officials more time than Mnuchin has had to plot strategies.Under Paulson , there were all-nighters , weekend work often conducted at the secretary ’ s Washington home , and many testy phone calls with top bank executives @ @ @ @ @ @ @ offers some lessons for the current crew , people who worked at the department at the time said in interviews .
Most asked not to be identified so they could speak candidly , saying that much of the history points up holes that Mnuchin will need to fill.Most notably , the people said , then-President Bush gave Paulson , the former chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs , free rein to the set up bailout programs and communicate with both Wall Street and the public .


washingtonpost--2020-04-04--Analysis | Mask or No Mask? Why the Guidance Has Been Shifting

Precedent explains part of it .
In eastern Asia , the practice of wearing medical masks in public is well-established .
It emerged as a convention during the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome ( SARS ) , which also was caused by a coronavirus .
For another thing , there ’ s no scientific consensus on the value of wearing a mask in public .
A few small studies have suggested that widespread use of face masks by the public may have reduced transmission in outbreaks of influenza and SARS , which like Covid-19 are respiratory diseases .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ considered conclusive .
Many medical specialists say one should , especially in light of evidence that a significant portion of those infected with the novel coronavirus don ’ t show symptoms and so may remain out and about .
Others have argued that it ’ s irresponsible for members of the public to buy up masks that are in short supply .
In its new guidance , the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said , “ Do NOT use a facemask meant for a healthcare worker.
” The scarcity among health-care @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Adams has said , raises the overall risk to the community : Infected providers can spread the virus to the uninfected and once sick can ’ t look after patients .
The argument is that everyone is better off if medical masks are reserved for those who certainly require them and who can ’ t avoid exposure to people who are infected or might be .
As long as medical masks remain in short supply , some health specialists , including those at the CDC , are proposing that people cover their faces @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hand-sewn from fabric or improvised using a bandana or scarf , for instance .
The evidence so far is that the novel coronavirus spreads in respiratory droplets -- spatters of liquid expelled when an infected person coughs , sneezes or even speaks .
These droplets are usually heavy enough to fall immediately to the ground or surrounding surfaces .
Transmission can occur if the droplets reach the mouth , nose or eye of someone nearby , either directly or from an unwashed hand that ’ s touched a contaminated object or surface .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ cover , the droplets can be caught by the mask rather than being expelled .
Wearing a face covering can also help protect people who are uninfected , if it stops them from touching their face .
Protocols prescribe that when they suspect patients are infected with the virus that causes Covid-19 , they isolate them and given them a mask to wear .
This will usually be the type worn by surgeons -- the loose-fitting , one-size-fits-all kind that ’ s rectangular when flat .
Health-care providers who deal with such patients @ @ @ @ @ @ @ wear a more sophisticated mask called a respirator , which is designed to protect the user .
They come in different sizes so they can be fit to the wearer ’ s face to provide a tight seal .
That forces the user to pull air through the device ’ s filter rather than through gaps on the sides .
They are designed to keep out not only respiratory droplets but also smaller aerosolized particles that can carry infectious agents and float for a time through the air .
Airborne transmission has not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ is a risk that certain medical procedures , such as tracheotomy and airway suction , can generate virally contaminated aerosols .
Respirators are uncomfortable to wear for a long period of time .
They retain heat and exert pressure on the face , and some people find they make it difficult to breathe , which can make them unsuitable for those with cardiac and respiratory conditions .
The CDC issued guidance on how to conserve limited gear and what to do if it runs short .
The measures , which don ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beyond their designated shelf life and wearing the same one to attend to several patients without removing it .
The agency said that limited reuse of respirators might become necessary but counseled caution .
It said a last resort would be to turn to untested versions , including homemade masks .
Some U.S. hospitals have already adopted these options , with several recruiting the public to sew masks .
The U.S. surgeon general said that people who aren ’ t trained in how to use them tend to touch their faces a lot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ becoming infected with the coronavirus .
Health care professionals emphasize that if you ’ re going to use a mask , it ’ s vital to do so correctly or you could become infected through contact with it : put it on with clean hands , replace it as soon as it becomes damp , remove it from behind without touching the front , wash your hands afterward , and dispose of the mask properly .
The WHO counsels against reusing masks that are made for a single use .


washingtonpost--2020-05-06--Fed Study Finds SBA Loans Went to Areas With More Bank Customers

The most important news stories of the day , curated by Post editors and delivered every morning .
By signing @ @ @ @ @ Terms of Use and Privacy Policy


washingtonpost--2020-05-06--Analysis | Buffett and Bondholders Are Now Oxy’s Priorities

On May 5 , 2020 , Oxy reported a quarterly loss of $ 2.2 billion and withdrew annual guidance .
Also , news emerged it had hired a bank to help cut its debt load , as reported by The Wall Street Journal .
Meanwhile , Total , hosting its own earnings call that day , indicated completion of the Algerian and Ghanaian parts of that African deal was not exactly imminent .
On Wednesday , Oxy ’ s 10-Q filing confirmed the Algerian deal is effectively dead and the Ghanaian one in limbo .
Like I said , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ A is all about the income statement ; how cost savings mean 1+1=3 for the bottom line .
But off-stage , the balance sheet is doing the heavy lifting .
Oxy ’ s experience of the past 12 months is destined to be a case study in what happens when the balance sheet gets stressed and ends up having a meltdown on center stage .
Oxy took a risk with Anadarko , and Covid-19 is its unforeseen nemesis .
Hence , Oxy is pulling every lever to conserve cash .
Dividends to common @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Buffett ’ s $ 200 million-per-quarter coupon is being paid in new shares rather than cash .
Now the capital expenditure budget has been cut , again , to less than half what was laid out three months ago .
Further cost savings are promised .
Altogether , it may be enough to keep Oxy ’ s balance sheet running in place but not to lose weight anytime soon .
Adding the incremental savings to existing consensus estimates ( 2 ) implies Ebitda ( as a proxy for cash flow ) of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the year .
Interest , dividends and capex take about $ 2.6 billion of that ( assuming Buffett keeps getting new stock every quarter ) .
The resulting free cash flow helps , but would still imply Oxy ending the year with leverage above 5 times Ebitda , or about 6.5 times with the preferreds .
On Wednesday ’ s call , Oxy mentioned $ 2 billion of potential disposals in the near future .
If they happen this year , they would take those multiples down slightly .
Even a utility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and an oil company in the middle of a pandemic is no utility ( 3 ) .
One option for those hired bankers to consider is capitalizing on the bond sell-off by persuading Oxy ’ s creditors to swap their unsecured paper below face value for secured bonds .
Charles Johnston of CreditSights , an analytics firm , estimates a $ 10 billion exchange at 65 cents on the dollar could shrink the pile by $ 5 billion , taking leverage to about 4.4 times at year-end ( based on my numbers above @ @ @ @ @ @ @ still be very high but an improvement , especially if some semblance of stability entered the oil market later this year .
There ’ s a catch , though .
Creditors being asked to take a haircut to par value might look at Oxy ’ s current market cap of almost $ 13 billion and wonder why more of the pain shouldn ’ t fall on equity holders .
As it is , CreditSights estimates asset coverage for Oxy ’ s creditors of just over $ 51 billion under a “ high-case ” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ less than $ 5 billion .
This is why , despite Oxy ’ s progress on cutting costs , the sheer size of the balance sheet makes its stock — and lately its bonds — options on oil-price recovery .
Even before Covid-19 ’ s arrival , that was not a hot ticket among energy investors , who have realized the oil option often doesn ’ t pay off for them .
Now , with Oxy ’ s maturities wall looming , potentially tough negotiations with creditors beckon amid a fragile oil market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for oil producers this past year , but for Oxy more than most .
The next 12 months don ’ t promise much respite .
( 2 ) In terms of liquidity , Oxy also faces a wildcard in the form of 2036 bonds that are putable to the company in October .
This may require almost $ 1 billion of refinancing depending on what bondholders decide to do.. ( 3 ) Adding in preferreds , it would drop from 6.5 times to 5.8 times .
Assuming $ 2 billion of disposal proceeds @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4.1 without preferreds and 5.5 times all in , using my numbers .
Liam Denning is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy , mining and commodities .
He previously was editor of the Wall Street Journal ’ s Heard on the Street column and wrote for the Financial Times ’ Lex column .
He was also an investment banker .


washingtonpost--2020-05-11--Analysis | Theranos Lessons Apply to Covid-19 Antibody Tests

Ironically , the pandemic may be recreating a similar environment to the one that cultivated Theranos in the first place , as whistleblower Tyler Shultz , a former employee at the now-defunct start-up , warned on May 2 .
Pointing to a combination of large-scale health needs , the potential for lucrative financial gain and corner cutting by regulators , he concluded that Theranos would be “ thriving ” in this pandemic .
And when it comes to Covid-19 antibody tests , he has a point .
A deluge of new rapid test kits has offered a seductive vision : @ @ @ @ @ @ @ it might take to see if you ’ ve been infected with the novel coronavirus in the past and generated antibodies that protect against future reinfection ( though this is a topic of debate ) .
This is a potentially huge market .
Governments have spent millions on test kits , part of efforts to track the spread of Covid-19 as they start to ease draconian lockdowns .
And individuals are desperate to know whether they ’ ve already had the disease .
If a consensus emerges that antibodies do confer a degree @ @ @ @ @ @ @ golden ticket to freedom from social distancing and home isolation .
Companies are even selling tests direct to the consumer , not just to health-care professionals .
The problem is many of these antibody tests simply aren ’ t good enough .
In the U.K. , a study of nine unidentified commercially available tests found them all to be “ unsuitable for testing individuals.
” The devices scored especially poorly on their ability to avoid false negatives , called sensitivity , with a range of 55 % -70 % accuracy .
Specificity , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , fared better at 95 % -100 % .
After ordering millions of test kits from China , the U.K. government is trying to get its money back .
The rush to market in a pandemic is bad enough , but regulators have also been slow to wake up to the real risk of fraud .
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration in March allowed the sale of unauthorized antibody tests under certain conditions , only to tighten the rules last week : “ We unfortunately see unscrupulous actors marketing fraudulent test kits @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to take advantage of Americans ’ anxiety.
” And while several European countries have issued consumer warnings , it ’ s still possible to take tests that haven ’ t undergone regulatory authorization in countries such as France .
Only Belgium has banned rapid testing kits .
Obviously , it would be wrong to imagine that every actor in this market is unscrupulous and that potential Theranoses are everywhere .
And accuracy isn ’ t an impossible dream .
Laboratory sample tests known as ELISAs ( for enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays ) have been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sensitivity , though they must be administered by trained medical staff and can ’ t be used at home .
Roche Holding AG , meanwhile , is preparing to roll out a lab test in the U.K. with what it says is a specificity above 99.8 % and sensitivity of 100 % ( when conducted 14 days after a confirmed infection ) .
But in general , too much burden is being placed on the consumer to trust and make sense of technical information .
A test promoting a figure of 95 % @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a population of 1 million people where 15 % have been infected , it actually works out to 42,500 false positives and 7,500 false negatives , according to the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health .
Errors might keep people cooped up at home and unable to work , or start a new epidemic chain .
This is a “ Wild West ” market that ’ s crying out for sheriffs .
Cracking down on poor-quality tests is an obvious first step .
The next should be to ramp up independent oversight @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ideally worldwide .
Rather than rely on manufacturers ’ own data , or have national regulators separately test different kits , organizations like the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control or the World Health Organization look well placed to pool resources and save time while setting much-needed standards , Iceland ’ s chief epidemiologist , Thorolfur Gudnason , tells me .
Theranos sold a product that was too good to be true .
We don ’ t yet know if Covid-19 will produce a similar scandal , but this is a market @ @ @ @ @ @ @ When a whistleblower reaches for his whistle a second time , it ’ s worth paying attention .


washingtonpost--2020-05-11--Analysis | Amazon Needs Movies More Than a Multiplex

Amazon is said to have studied a deal for AMC and the two sides may have held talks , according to a May 9 report in the British newspaper the Daily Mail citing unnamed sources .
Deadline later contradicted the story , saying there aren ’ t any discussions .
This may turn out to be a case in which investor hope , rather than deal logic , was informing a rumor .
AMC is the largest cinema operator in the U.S. and Europe , where it owns the Odeon & UCI circuit .
That purchase , along with the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and a costly theater renovation streak , has left AMC with a large debt burden that now threatens to topple the company as most of its cinemas remain closed due to the Covid-19 outbreak .
The dwindling box office isn ’ t just a temporary quarantine-related problem .
A nearly doubling in the price of movie tickets over the last two decades has masked an otherwise gradual decline in patronage .
After regional stay-at-home orders lift , prolonged virus fears and a continued shift toward at-home video streaming will take even more of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ experiment with on-demand releases that are either concurrent with theatrical debuts or skip movie houses entirely , as Universal Studios chose to do with its “ Trolls World Tour ” premiere last month .
Though AMC does sell its own on-demand movie access through the new Theatres On Demand platform , Amazon Prime Video is already a more established destination .
What Amazon would be buying is a heap of debt and empty auditoriums .
And what in the world is Bezos going to do with 11,000 exhibition screens ?
If the future @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a company like AMC Networks — the channel known for “ Breaking Bad ” and “ The Walking Dead ” — is a much more fitting candidate than AMC theaters .
But even AMC Networks , which is valued at just $ 1.3 billion , may still be too niche for Amazon ’ s needs .
If Bezos truly wants to dominate in streaming entertainment , he should think about acquiring a Hollywood studio .
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. , ViacomCBS Inc. ’ s Paramount Pictures , Sony Pictures and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc. are @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
They could help provide the must-see content that Amazon needs more of to drive interest in its Prime Video service .
As of now , the “ free ” movies and shows available to Prime members are more of an extra feature that ’ s nice to have , but easily forgotten about .
In fact , more than three-quarters of Amazon Prime Video members still use Netflix , according to research firm MoffettNathanson LLC .
The same argument can be made for Apple Inc. as it invests in the Apple TV+ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Tara Lachapelle is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the business of entertainment and telecommunications , as well as broader deals .
She previously wrote an M & A column for Bloomberg News .


washingtonpost--2020-06-09--Analysis | Brokers, or Just Broken? What China’s Reforms Won’t Fix

China ’ s brokers aren ’ t in the strongest position .
Much hope has been pinned on reforms for the Nasdaq-like ChiNext board , which may help increase initial public offerings , and on the over-the-counter National Equities and Exchange , a potential aid to investment banking .
Various other changes over the years haven ’ t resulted in the desired first-class world brokerage , and neither will these if the institutions aren ’ t robust and sophisticated enough to operate alongside foreign peers .
Unsurprisingly , brokerages ’ latest results showed weaker profits as investment returns dropped and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ declined in May .
Capital cushions are thinner .
Covid-19 played a part , but there ’ s more .
The regulator put these firms in a precarious situation last year , asking them to take over from jittery minor banks to provide financing to small and medium enterprises .
As my colleague Shuli Ren and I wrote , brokers aren ’ t banks and don ’ t take deposits or create money .
To ease rising pressure on buffers , the regulator last month loosened rules to allow securities companies to issue @ @ @ @ @ @ @ money .
Another business they often rely on for profits : Proprietary trading .
In a crowded market , this helps differentiate stronger from weaker firms .
However , it comes with its share of credit risks .
In the West , the influence of the Volcker Rule inhibits banks from aggressive investment activity using their own balance sheets .
Critics believe it constrained market liquidity .
In China , securities companies have been issuing piles of short-term debt to bolster this activity , along with margin lending .
To be fair , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ high at Chinese brokerages compared to their international peers .
However , the ways they put their balance sheets to work are riskier and more opaque , reflected in credit costs in the first quarter .
Since the end of 2019 , client assets in these segments have risen by as much as 37 % .
That ’ s a worrisome backdrop to the changes now under way .
The regulator is allowing brokers to work out their ratios in a manner that encourages this leveraged activity and ratchets up risk .
Instead @ @ @ @ @ @ @ parent ’ s balance sheet , brokerages can now use their consolidated subsidiaries , which typically have lower leverage .
Goldman Sachs estimates leverage could look as much as 25 % lower for firms in the pilot program , making their capital cushions appear thicker .
Changes in determining risk-weighted assets also reduce their burden .
The worst part : It ’ s all purely to show standing on paper .
There isn ’ t a framework around risk management .
The changes don ’ t spell out what is and isn ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that take on excessive credit risk .
That leaves plenty of room for misinterpretation and miscalculation if the program is expanded to smaller and weaker securities companies .
To be clear , leverage isn ’ t a bad thing .
The risk lies in how and where brokers use it .
These changes mean that they ’ ll be able to invest more with the same amount of equity .
The move to allow more leverage could ultimately help China ’ s capital markets look and even feel more mature .
Brokerages can @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and credit growth .
All this could be useful if these institutions can convert the extra wiggle room into higher return on assets and equity.The question is whether they can handle such an experiment .
Previous attempts to give securities companies more balance-sheet runway didn ’ t end well .
In 2015 , aggressive lending on margin and for pledged stock drove leverage growth .
The market crash forced regulators to pull back .
Rules around total asset to total equity ratios ( leverage ) , capital and liquidity were introduced in 2016 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ volatility and act more closely in line with Basel III , a guide for international banks and brokers .
Four years on , and not much has changed .
Following the leverage rules , pledged lending on stock grew in 2017 .
Regulatory restrictions on sales by shareholders weakened the loans and opened securities companies up to losses .
The following year , they faced liquidity risks as authorities cracked down on market scandals .
The latest regulations won ’ t help tame the boom-and-bust cycle .
With the compounded effect of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , China is attempting to bring in foreign institutions and money at an ever-quicker pace .
The last thing this financial system needs is to further weaken institutions and let them go awry with indiscriminate lending .
Experiments can have unexpected results .

Beijing is loosening the reins on its large brokerages as the financial system looks ever creakier. Previous attempts to build a Chinese version of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. haven’t had much luck. This time may be no different.
China’s capital markets are in desperate need of reform, and securities companies are key to their growth and luring in foreign investment. The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised draft regulations in recent months that rate the financial standing of brokers and focus on an increasing worry, their capital buffers. Yet the new rules will do little to force more scrutiny or to strengthen the largest brokerages, which are testing them in a pilot program. Instead, a key change in how metrics are calculated will lead to a potentially dangerous outcome: Brokers who helped drive the market off a cliff five years ago will once again be able to expand their balance-sheet leverage.
China’s brokers aren’t in the strongest position. Much hope has been pinned on reforms for the Nasdaq-like ChiNext board, which may help increase initial public offerings, and on the over-the-counter National Equities and Exchange, a potential aid to investment banking. Various other changes over the years haven’t resulted in the desired first-class world brokerage, and neither will these if the institutions aren’t robust and sophisticated enough to operate alongside foreign peers.


washingtonpost--2020-06-09--Debt Shakeout to Make Biggest Tech Firms, Retailers Even Bigger

Small and medium-size businesses that operate on thin profit margins are particularly vulnerable .
While many have availed themselves of help via the government ’ s Paycheck Protection Program , they still face daunting prospects adjusting to a world where the virus remains a threat .
Winnowing out small firms would be a plus for larger , publicly traded companies , allowing them to grab a bigger piece of the profit pie .
That may be one of the reasons why the stock market has performed so well relative to the dismal performance of the economy , said Michael Feroli @ @ @ @ @ @ @ & Co. Three companies -- Tyson Foods , JBS and Cargill -- control about two-thirds of America ’ s beef , and the bulk of it gets processed in a few dozen giant plants .
So even closing a small number of facilities was enough to call the availability of supply into question .
Recessions historically lead to market consolidation as financially weaker firms are forced out of business .
That could prove to be particularly true this time , given the unprecedented depth of the downturn and the large amount of debt @ @ @ @ @ @ @ May alone , some 28 businesses reporting at least $ 50 million in liabilities sought court protection from creditors .
That brought the total for the first five months of the year to 99 for companies of this size -- the most for the period since 2009 .
The toll might have been even greater but for the Fed ’ s Herculean effort to keep credit flowing to the economy via the capital markets .
Through the first five months of 2020 , companies issued more than $ 1.2 trillion in bonds , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ period last year .
From cruise-line operator Carnival to car-rental company Avis Budget Group , many corporations were able to raise billions of dollars despite doubts about their long-term viability .
“ The second wave likely starts sometime this summer for the companies that don ’ t have enough money to make it through , ” said Jacobs , whose firm is working on some of the largest company restructurings in the world .
“ It ’ s not only the impact of Covid-19 , which is of course the primary reason , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that had been building up in the economy prior to it , ” said Altman , who developed a widely used method called the Altman-Z-Score for predicting business failures .
The carnage is likely to be more widespread among small firms that lack access to the capital markets and depend on their own resources and the banks for financing .
An April survey of small businesses by a group of economists including the University of Chicago ’ s Marianne Bertrand found the median respondent had more than $ 10,000 in monthly expenses and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hand .
To protect themselves from takeovers , some corporations are adopting so-called poison pills , which generally allow investors to acquire additional shares if an unwanted suitor takes a significant stake in the company .
That includes Office Depot , which last month announced plans to lay off about 13,000 employees , and Oklahoma City driller Chesapeake Energy , which Bloomberg reported is preparing a potential bankruptcy filing .

Bloomberg Daybreak Middle East & Africa
Daybreak Middle East & Africa is your daily spotlight on one of the world's fastest-growing regions. Live from Dubai, we bring you the latest global markets and analysis, plus news-making interviews, with a special focus on MEA. All that and more, as you head to the office in the Gulf, pause for lunch in Hong Kong, or start your day in London or Johannesburg.


washingtonpost--2020-06-09--Analysis | Zoom Deals Put Barbarians at the Virtual Gate

Whatever the case , the global pandemic is giving businesses plenty of reasons to get back to dealmaking .
Yes , even social distancing may draw some companies closer together .
How they do it will just require a bit more ingenuity in a post-handshake , post-Covid-19 world .
As drugmakers race to develop vaccines and treatments for the virus , the pharmaceutical industry is an obvious place to expect renewed M & A activity .
Already , drug giant AstraZeneca Plc has made a preliminary takeover approach to Gilead Sciences Inc. , Bloomberg News reported Sunday , citing people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s a potential $ 100 billion transaction .
Executives from Johnson & Johnson also said in April that one of their top priorities is finding M & A that enhances its pipeline , citing the drugmaker ’ s financial strength .
The company has $ 18 billion of cash and equivalents , and Ebitda exceeds debt .
It was the pharma industry that kicked off the global megamerger wave last time around , in early 2014 , as companies including AstraZeneca participated in a game of merger musical chairs .
Soon enough , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ deal frenzy , which lasted until earlier this year .
It might have kept going had the virus not arrived .
M & A globally is down 50 % this year after the coronavirus quite literally brought the economy to a halt .
But stay-at-home orders have been lifting across Asia , Europe and the U.S. And now that New York City — the unofficial headquarters of the M & A market — is beginning to reopen , deals that were in the works previously may pick up where they left off .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ bankers to try to get done , said Eric Becker , who manages the AltShares Merger Arbitrage ETF at Water Island Capital , a firm with $ 2.5 billion under management .
“ Those were situations where they were still able to hit the golf course and have the handshakes and look at each other face to face.
” The M & A handshake may be over , but tech-savvy companies are already embracing the deal-by-video-chat method .
Verizon Communications Inc. acquired videoconferencing business BlueJeans Networks for about $ 400 million in April @ @ @ @ @ @ @ year , the deal had to be finalized over BlueJeans video calls .
Intel Corp. also bought Moovit Inc. , an Israeli public-transit mapping startup , for $ 900 million last month .
Moovit ’ s CEO told one publication that the deal came together over Zoom video calls .
Not only could more companies use videoconferencing tools to do M & A , other tech-affiliated companies could copy Verizon by acquiring a service like BlueJeans to round out their business software offerings .
That ’ s if working from home is going @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gets under control .
And for deals in which physical assets and property are key , investors have cited the prospect of drones being used to conduct due diligence and avoid unnecessary travel and virus risks .
Whether that ’ s a practical solution remains to be seen .
Companies that announced deals just before the virus struck may experience buyer ’ s remorse .
Tiffany & Co. ’ s acquirer , LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE , is reportedly looking to pay a lower price than the $ 16.2 billion it @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of course , doesn ’ t want to renegotiate the terms .
The spread between Tiffany ’ s share price and LVMH ’ s bid is wide at 10 % , signaling investor apprehension that the deal will collapse .
But then there are deals that make all the more sense because of the crisis .
Uber Technologies Inc. is trying to acquire Grubhub Inc. to consolidate the market for food-delivery services as demand surges .
Even as restaurants reopen , diners in heavily populated areas may still be reluctant to eat out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of regional bank acquisitions , as smaller banks require better online capabilities and larger banks seek a deeper community presence .
Vulnerable companies may already be bracing for activist shareholder interventions and unsolicited bids .
The law firm K & L Gates LLP said that between March and mid-April more than two dozen U.S. public companies adopted so-called poison pills — more than the total number of S & P 500 companies that had these types of takeover protections in place last year .
Private equity firms are also likely to be gearing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the risk of igniting political and public scrutiny in a year marked by soaring unemployment and social activism over inequality .
Other opportunistic buyers may soon come out of the woodwork .
Amazon.com Inc. , which isn ’ t a frequent borrower , aroused suspicion when it issued $ 10 billion of debt in recent weeks .
Oracle Corp. also raised $ 20 billion .
“ When you start seeing some of these deep-pocketed buyers doing these large debt deals , it makes me think there ’ s pent-up demand for M & @ @ @ @ @ @ @ caveat : Regulators are ostensibly taking a tougher stance against potentially anti-competitive takeovers by tech giants .
Even so , companies that see President Donald Trump losing the November election may want to act before less-merger-friendly Democrats take charge .


washingtonpost--2020-04-21--Senate Sets Up Tuesday Vote on Aid Plan With Deal Nearly Done

Unanimous consent would be required for the Senate to pass the measure during a pro forma session , which would allow most members to avoid traveling to Washington amid coronavirus restrictions .
Because an objection to unanimous consent in the House is likely , Majority Leader Steny Hoyer has notified members that they would probably have to travel to Washington for a recorded vote .
At a White House briefing on Monday evening , President Donald Trump expressed optimism that a break was near in the deadlock that ’ s been in place since last week as the Paycheck Protection @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion in funding .
“ Hopefully tomorrow the Senate is going to be able to vote , ” Trump said .
“ A lot of progress has been made on that , tremendous progress.
” Discussions were focused on adding $ 310 billion to the small business plan , designed to help them keep workers on their payrolls as much of the country remains under stay-at-home orders .
Another $ 50 billion to $ 60 billion would go to a separate Economic Injury Disaster Loan program that provides financing and advances grants of @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The plan also would include $ 75 billion of the $ 100 billion Democrats have demanded for hospitals , with a significant portion aimed at rural hospitals , as well as $ 25 billion for virus testing .
Several issues remained outstanding , three Democratic officials said .
A person familiar with the negotiations said Monday that Democrats and Republicans still had a disagreement over the formula to distribute health-care aid to the states .
Another remaining disagreement was over the testing program , including which agency -- the Centers for Disease @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Health -- should oversee it , according to one person familiar with the discussions .
Pelosi has been under pressure from her party ’ s liberal wing to wring more concessions , including aid for state and local governments that the GOP is resisting putting in the package .
“ It is going to be very difficult to support a package that doesn ’ t have what we need in terms of help for state and local governments , ” Pramila Jayapal , head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus , said on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sunday call with GOP senators , McConnell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the agreement won ’ t include aid for state and local governments , according to a Republican aide .
That had been one of the original demands of Pelosi and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer .
Another Democratic proposal , an increase for the food stamp program , also was left out , the aide said McConnell and Mnuchin told the GOP lawmakers on the call , which was joined by Trump and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican and chairman of the National Governors Association , and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo , a Democrat who is the association ’ s vice chairman , said on April 11 that without at least $ 500 billion , states would have to curtail essential services as tax revenue plummets and demand for resources soars .
This week ’ s proposed legislation is considered an interim step in efforts to prop up a U.S. economy frozen by the nationwide shutdown caused by the spread of the novel coronavirus .
There ’ s general @ @ @ @ @ @ @ House that a so-called phase four comprehensive economic rescue package would be needed , following the $ 2 trillion package approved late last month .


washingtonpost--2020-04-21--Airlines, Amazon Upped Lobbying as Virus Hit Economy

The airlines had sought $ 58 billion in aid for passenger and cargo carriers from Congress , and with supportive messages from President Donald Trump , the industry eventually secured $ 50 billion in loans and payroll assistance for passenger carriers and $ 8 billion for cargo carriers as part of the $ 2.2 trillion stimulus that Congress assembled at the end of March .
The forms represent lobbying from the start of the year to March 31 .
The government is also requiring large carriers to repay some of the assistance at low interest rates , and the Treasury @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
On both provisions , there was pushback from the industry , as carriers have cut capacity as much as 80 % while parking thousands of planes and flying many routes nearly empty .
Several lobbying groups including the National Association of Manufacturers and the National Association of Realtors , as well as companies including Gilead Sciences Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. , increased their spending on government influence in the first quarter , according to disclosures filed with Congress .
California-based Gilead , a major producer of HIV and hepatitis C drugs , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ in the second quarter , a record for the company and up more than 30 % from a year earlier , when it set its prior record .
Earlier in April , the company ’ s shares jumped after a report that a group of patients being treated in Chicago with one of its drugs as part of an experimental trial were “ seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms.
” Amazon and Facebook Inc. also set records in the quarter .
Amazon spent more than $ 4.3 million , up more @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of 2019 and beating its previous quarterly record of $ 4.2 million , which it set in the last three months of 2019 .
The e-commerce giant , which has become a lifeline for Americans in lockdown seeking to obtain supplies without venturing outside , reported lobbying on combating price gouging in response to the pandemic , among other issues .
Some sellers on Amazon had raised prices of goods on the platform dramatically as the virus outbreak took hold in the U.S .
The National Association of Manufacturers , meanwhile , spent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 50 % from a year earlier .
The group called for the federal government to create a $ 1.4 trillion fund with interest-free loans to manufacturers affected by the outbreak .
It praised the $ 850 billion in financing and guarantees for large and small businesses ultimately included in the stimulus legislation that its members could tap .
Realtors , meanwhile , spent almost $ 14 million , an increase of nearly 20 % from the first quarter of 2019 .
The National Association of Realtors worked on a number of issues related @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for independent contractors and the self-employed , according to its filings .
It reached out to Congress , the White House , the Treasury Department , the U.S. Small Business Administration and the Labor Department .
The Business Roundtable spent nearly $ 5 million , up more than a third from the same period in 2019 .
The group , which counts chief executives of major companies as its membership , said in its filing that it lobbied on the financial stimulus , as well as labor and supply chain issues related to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who should be labeled “ essential ” amid lockdowns .
Spending by groups including the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America , the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Retail Federation was flat to lower despite lobbying in response to the outbreak , which intensified in the final weeks of the reporting period .


washingtonpost--2020-04-21--U.S. Cases Rise 5.7% as Trump to Pause Immigration: Virus Update


washingtonpost--2020-04-21--Analysis | Baking Brits Give Primark Owner a Smart Look

Primark ’ s stores are closed , and the discount fashion chain doesn ’ t sell online .
It has gone from taking 650 million pounds in ( $ 805 million ) a month before the last of its stores shut their doors on March 22 , to selling nothing at all .
Even with efforts to cut costs , and a tax break , the retailer ’ s cash outflow is 100 million pounds a month .
It has taken a 284 million-pound provision for the stock that it will have to sell at a lower price to clear @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s name hides it well , Primark is by far the biggest element of Associated British Foods , accounting for almost 50 % of sales in 2019 and more than 60 % of operating profit .
This year the proportion will be much lower after at least two months of not trading .
But if Primark were a stand-alone group it would have no revenues at all for that period .
The smaller divisions , which range from corn sugar and tea to Southeast Asian cooking spices , are at least bringing @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , ABF ’ s grocery arm has been helped by the panic buying at the start of the pandemic crisis , as consumers around the world stocked up .
At its bakery brands , Allinson and Kingsmill , it is selling every loaf of bread it can make .
Similarly , the craze for home baking as people try to fill their time in lockdown is driving demand for flour .
This should also help sales of sugar .
Demand for food more broadly could feed through to other divisions such as agriculture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ clear how long Primark will be out of action .
Reopening won ’ t be straightforward in a world where social distancing becomes the norm .
The retailer will need to reconfigure stores , and deal with stock , like those pink fluffy jumpers that won ’ t sell well in higher summer temperatures .
That means the conglomerate structure should help ease the burden for a while yet .
But at some point the world will return to some semblance of normality .
Shopping malls and main streets are likely to see @ @ @ @ @ @ @ emerging in a much stronger position .
Primark , with its focus on low prices , will probably be among them .
It could also pick up market share from those that fail .
If the group ’ s U.S. business continues to prosper , Primark should resume its growth trajectory once more .
The prospects here are good .
The inevitable economic downturn that will follow the pandemic should favor discount retailers .
What ’ s more , with some well-known U.S. names likely disappearing , and others closing swathes of stores @ @ @ @ @ @ @ space to choose from if it expands its network .
Once Primark ’ s sales pick back up , it risks pulling away from ABF ’ s smaller divisions again .
That will make a split or a spin-off look more appealing once more .
The logic of having discount fashion alongside diet crispbreads won ’ t be evident forever .
But right now , investors in ABF should be thankful for it .


washingtonpost--2020-04-21--Analysis | Richard Branson Doesn’t Have a Drop to Drink

On Monday he penned an extraordinary public letter appealing to the British government to provide an emergency loan to prevent the collapse of transatlantic carrier Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd. , which he owns jointly along with Delta Air Lines Inc. of the U.S. Travel restrictions to curb the new coronavirus have walloped Branson ’ s travel and leisure holdings .
He ’ s already spent $ 250 million to support his various Virgin Group portfolio companies , but most of his $ 5.9 billion net worth isn ’ t “ sitting as cash in a bank account ready to withdraw @ @ @ @ @ @ @ forced him to consider the drastic step of mortgaging his beloved Caribbean island home , which doubles as an ultra-expensive retreat .
On one level Branson ’ s predicament is simple , and pretty common for someone about to turn 70 : He ’ s asset rich , and cash poor .
But considering his pretty relaxed approach to business , Branson ’ s financial arrangements — spanning his British Virgin Islands tax residency and a portfolio of often debt-laden holdings — are as complicated as they come .
This , alongside the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ out a billionaire , makes governments wary of offering a helping hand .
Another of his investments , Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd. , collapsed into administration this week , having failed to secure a lifeline from Canberra .
British regional airline Flybe , in which Virgin held a minority stake , went bust last month after Boris Johnson ’ s government declined to provide further assistance .
Branson has plenty of financial capital but he appears to have very little of the political kind .
Even now that he ’ s put the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ table , this probably won ’ t change .
Helped by his gift for self-publicity , many Britons are as familiar with Branson ’ s business career as they are with their own personal finances .
But the consequence of stamping the Virgin name on everything , often in return for no more than a licensing fee , is that the public thinks he owns half of the economy and is in no need of a handout .
In reality , Branson has exited businesses such as the broadband provider Virgin Media ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ he owns only a small piece of high-profile companies like Virgin Money UK Plc , gym chain Virgin Active and Virgin Trains USA ( operator of a high-speed Florida rail line ) .
Branson ’ s talent has attracted wealthy partners , willing to invest alongside him in return for a share of the profits .
One of the more unfortunately timed of these was a fleet of Virgin-branded cruise ships , co-funded by Bain Capital and the Singapore sovereign fund GIC Pte.
, due to start sailing this year .
Because Branson @ @ @ @ @ @ @ companies outright , he can ’ t easily switch cash between one investment and another .
And having multiple owners complicates decisions on who should bail the business out when trouble strikes .
Delta and the U.S. government haven ’ t offered publicly to help Virgin Atlantic , for example .
At Virgin Australia the buck stopped with Etihad Airways , Singapore Airlines and other foreign airline investors whose holdings were larger than Branson ’ s 10 % stake .
Some of Branson ’ s businesses were struggling before the coronavirus struck .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ two years for which there are published accounts .
It carries a lot of debt , rents many of its planes and funded its daily operations with cash from selling tickets in advance .
Passengers whose flights have been cancelled are demanding refunds .
Even the company ’ s valuable Heathrow takeoff slots have been used as collateral .
Lately Branson has reinvested profits and dividends from his various ventures into the cruise ships venture , a chain of American hotels and , above all , his space-travel company Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc @ @ @ @ @ @ @ about how to make their next mortgage or car payment , even the jobs created by these new Virgin ventures are no guarantee of winning taxpayer support .
His Virgin Galactic stake is worth almost $ 2 billion by my calculation .
( 1 ) Monetizing it might not be easy ( 2 ) but as collateral it ’ s worth much more than Necker .
In making his case for a bailout , Branson cited the detrimental impact on competition if his airlines were allowed to fail .
He ’ d be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that failure is part of being an entrepreneur .
If he can ’ t persuade commercial backers to provide loans , then governments too must drive a hard bargain in exchange for assistance .


washingtonpost--2020-04-21--Analysis | Investment Banks Get a Coronavirus Trading Pass

For example , while supervisors have rightly lowered the demands on how much capital a bank should hold , they ’ ve also granted greater flexibility in how lenders make provisions for loans that turn bad .
Equally troubling is a new move to ease the capital requirements on trading businesses that have come under extreme market strain .
There ’ s a risk here of investors losing confidence in the handful of companies that are most critical to financial stability : the world ’ s biggest investment banks .
During the first quarter of 2020 , Wall Street banks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ years , as mayhem in the markets forced clients to buy and sell securities at unprecedented speed .
Yet global regulators — in the euro zone , the U.K. , Switzerland and Canada — have decided to loosen the rules where firms didn ’ t do so well .
Banks that faced trading losses that repeatedly exceeded their modeled forecasts will get temporary respite on how much additional capital they have to set aside to make up for the shortfalls .
Each regulator has relaxed these trading rules to varying degrees , a @ @ @ @ @ @ @ could itself damage investor trust .
But their goal is similar : The world ’ s biggest trading firms are getting leeway if they ’ ve scored poorly on a crucial indicator of market risk .
It ’ s similar to a bank not penalizing a credit card borrower for overdue payments .
Banks set aside capital for the different types of risk they take on .
Typically , credit — or lending — risk makes up most of their exposure .
It accounts for 85 % of European banks ’ risk-weighted assets @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the exposure from trading — accounts for between 3 % and 4 % of those assets on average in Europe .
That ratio rises to as much as 6 % at Barclays Plc and 7.7 % at Deutsche Bank AG , two European banks with big trading operations .
Banks determine how much capital they need to set aside for that market exposure by measuring “ value-at-risk ” ( VaR ) .
That ’ s the maximum they could lose in a set time frame , based on recent historical prices .
To @ @ @ @ @ @ @ measure , and one that may not capture more extreme market moves , banks must also compute a measure of “ stressed VaR , ” reflecting how their positions might have fared in the worst market conditions ; as the 2008 crisis showed , VaR on its own can give a false sense of the finance industry ’ s resilience .
The more frequently a bank ’ s VaR model undershoots the actual risk that emerges in real-world trading , the more capital the bank is required to hold .
Or at least @ @ @ @ @ @ @ rule relaxations .
Regulators have now decided , temporarily , to tweak or do away with that additional capital requirement .
In effect , they ’ re deciding to ignore an alarm bell .
The Swiss financial watchdog conceded that firms witnessed an increased number of trading losses that exceeded their forecasts when markets went wild over the past few weeks , but it says market volatility was the problem , not the banks ’ models .
Yet as recently as February , France ’ s BNP Paribas SA was boasting of VaR @ @ @ @ @ @ @ including during the 2008 crisis .
It told investors that it had only experienced 22 incidents of VaR not getting it right between January 2007 and December 2019 , less than two per year .
The new regulatory leniency raises questions about how much capital support the banks need .
Companies will argue that their own VaR assessments have gone up anyway over the past quarter , meaning they ’ ll have to hold more capital to cover the exposure .
Take JPMorgan Chase & Co. , which reported earnings last week .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to $ 58 million from $ 37 million in the previous three months .
For some European banks , the capital impact of similar increases in VaR could be significant .
For every 10 % increase in its trading-risk assets , Barclays would see its common equity Tier-1 ratio drop by 14 basis points , while Deutsche Bank would see it fall 11 basis points , according to analysts at Berenberg .
At JPMorgan , market risk rose by about 30 % in the period .


washingtonpost--2020-04-21--Analysis | The Statistical Case for Reopening Georgia Is Weak

South Carolina , Georgia and Ohio are in the bottom 10 states in terms of tests run per 100,000 residents — arguably violating a second White House benchmark that says , before reopening , states should be fully ready to test front-line health workers .
States are also supposed to have broad coronavirus surveillance systems and track-and-trace programs in place .
None of the four states has fully met this mark .
Georgia plans to allow gyms , bowling alleys and other businesses to open this Friday , April 24 .
Theaters and restaurants can follow three days later .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ distancing measures . )
This shift will probably lead to a substantial increase in activity .
On Monday , Kemp said his decision comes as new diagnoses in the state appear to be flattening .
But Georgia looks as if it may be at a plateau only if you ignore the biggest-ever daily jump in new cases statewide , reported on April 17 .
The state will be relaxing restrictions within a week of what still isn ’ t confirmed to be a peak of new infections .
There are good reasons that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sustained case decline : Covid-19 spreads rapidly and sometimes via carriers who have no symptoms .
And because the coronavirus has a long incubation period , it can take time for even significant outbreaks to become large enough to discern , unless there is widespread testing .
Georgia seems determined to ignore this reality .
South Carolina ’ s already commenced reopening looks no better .
The state is a few weeks removed from its highest reported increase in Covid-19 cases .
However , the steepest jump in its daily count came just @ @ @ @ @ @ @ And the state hasn ’ t reported more than 2,600 tests in a day since April 9 .
Governor Henry McMaster says he hopes his plan will help South Carolina “ recover more quickly than any other state in the country.
” What he risks is a second outbreak or a worsening , uncontained epidemic .
Tennessee , in contrast , can claim to have reached something that looks like a plateau , based on its positive test data .
Yet even with a per-capita testing rate that is the 16th highest in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a sustained decline .
And Governor Bill Lee ’ s plan to allow the opening of the “ vast majority ” of businesses in all but five of the state ’ s 95 counties by May 1 will test any emerging stability .
Among the four state leaders , Ohio Governor Mike DeWine stands out for his early action and pragmatism in dealing with Covid-19 — for which he has earned much praise .
And the phased approach to reopening he now has in mind may prove to be appropriately cautious and flexible @ @ @ @ @ @ @ just as the state ’ s case count is rising due to an outbreak in a prison .
While this may be an isolated incident , it demonstrates how fast , in this pandemic , a seemingly stable situation can deteriorate .
All 50 states are bound to find reopening difficult no matter how carefully they follow public health guidelines .
Four states are deliberately choosing to lower their odds of success .


washingtonpost--2020-04-15--Analysis | Can Tech Track the Virus Without Shredding Privacy?

Apple and Google , a division of Alphabet Inc. , are building a tool for the 3 billion users of their phones , one that would use Bluetooth wireless technology to allow public health agencies to track what phones come near each other .
When users report via a public health agency ’ s app to having become infected with the coronavirus , the app would notify anyone whose phone had been in close contact during the previous several days .
In theory , that could allow much faster tracking of those who may have been exposed and steer them @ @ @ @ @ @ @ People would have to choose to register with such apps , no geolocation data would be used and the owner of the app would not have access to any personal data .
The technology also won ’ t notify users of the identity of any potential contact , or where that exposure happened .
Here ’ s how they would work : Phones that connect via Bluetooth and remain in contact for at least a few minutes exchange anonymous identifiers .
These digital keys change every 15 minutes or so and remain on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ privacy .
When an infection is reported , the app sends a notice to all phones that shared an identifying code with the infected person ’ s phone during the crucial timeframe .
Yes .
Singapore introduced a voluntary Bluetooth-based tracking system in March ; 1 million people , or about one-sixth of the population , signed up within 10 days .
South Korea went further : it has used location data from three mobile carriers and transactions from 22 credit-card issuers to decrease the tracking time of potentially infected individuals to 10 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ public to see all the locations a newly infected person visited before being diagnosed .
In Hong Kong , anyone arriving via the international airport must now wear an electronic wristband that signals when the wearer steps outside of predetermined boundaries during a 14-day quarantine .
Taiwan implemented a similar so-called electronic fence .
The Israeli government has authorized Shin Bet , the internal security service , and the police to break into the phones of anyone who is suspected of carrying the virus .
But in terms of what ’ s been @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gone so far as China .
Chinese authorities have employed facial-recognition software and location-tracking programs to identify people who are found to have fevers , who are directed to testing .
Officials monitor quarantine violators by placing QR codes on people ’ s phones that light up a certain color on mobile phone screens , based on a person ’ s health status and contacts with people who have tested positive for the virus .
Only those with a green code can move around freely ; reds are restricted .
Some of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ different approach .
Facebook Inc. is sharing aggregated user location data , stripped of identities , with researchers and non-profits studying the pandemic , and Google is publishing “ Community Mobility Reports ” that show trends in traffic to grocery stores , parks , transit stations and offices in 131 different countries and regions .
It ’ s based on the “ location history ” feature on Google Maps and other services .
Palantir Technologies Inc. has offered governments free use of its software for aggregating test results , predicting infection clusters and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than a dozen have taken the offer , including Austria , Spain , Greece , Canada , the U.K. and the U.S .
Developers in the U.K. , Germany and elsewhere are working on mobile phone apps to help track progression of the virus .
In March , the EU ’ s Industry Commissioner Thierry Breton reached an agreement to have telecom operators provide aggregated and anonymized mobile phone location data to analyze mobility patterns , allowing researchers to assess confinement measures .
In South Korea , the avalanche of information the government @ @ @ @ @ @ @ daily lives , prompting the closing of restaurants where victims reportedly ate before they were hospitalized .
Two people taunted on social media for having an affair because the data showed they were at the same hotel at the same time turned out to have been there for a church gathering .
After a rebuke from South Korea ’ s human rights commission , the government changed the way it releases information and issued new guidelines to protect privacy rights .
In China , the government promised to increase privacy measures after criticism @ @ @ @ @ @ @ coronavirus patients .
Singapore promised that data from its tracker would be erased after six months .
Data protection in the EU ’ s 27 nations is regulated by one of the world ’ s strictest privacy laws , the General Data Protection Regulation ( GDPR ) .
Overstepping some of its main provisions , such as the obligation to seek a user ’ s consent before processing their personal data , can lead to fines of as much as 4 % of a company ’ s global annual sales .
But EU @ @ @ @ @ @ @ priority to come out as quickly as possibly with guidance to make sure technology is used in a responsible way in the battle against the coronavirus pandemic .
GDPR includes a number of exceptions , such as the need to process info on people “ for monitoring epidemics and their spread.
” This can also justify the use of more “ invasive measures , ” as long as they are proportionate , EU data protection regulators said .
Reaction has been muted , reflecting both the severity of the country ’ s outbreak @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from Covid-19 than anywhere else -- and the pledges by Google , Apple and others to keep data anonymous .
But along with privacy and trust concerns , the American Civil Liberties Union has pointed to challenges including the availability of widespread and free testing to complement the public health agencies ’ apps , as well as access to mobile phones and other wireless devices .
Others worry about what might come next as more tech firms get involved .
Another concern : that pressure to act decisively against the pandemic right now @ @ @ @ @ @ @ term .


washingtonpost--2020-04-21--Analysis | How the Pandemic Fuels U.S. Debate Over Immigration

The president announced by tweet April 20 that he planned to sign an executive order temporarily suspending immigration into the U.S. in response to the pandemic and to protect American jobs .
Trump had already imposed broad travel restrictions on China , Europe , Canada and Mexico to curb the virus ’ s spread , and the State Department temporarily suspended routine visa services at embassies and consulates .
Trump depicts undocumented immigrants in the U.S. — of whom there are an estimated 11 million  — as taking jobs from citizens and as dangerously criminal .
Economists disagree about @ @ @ @ @ @ @ some say it reduces work and wages for low-skill workers , especially Black and Hispanic Americans , while others challenge the argument and the data behind it .
A number of studies have concluded that migrants commit crimes at lower rates than native-born Americans .
Trump hasn ’ t proposed reducing the scale of legal immigration .
But he argues that the system that regulates it , which is based largely on family ties and ensures immigrants come from a diverse array of nations , attracts undesirable newcomers , including , as he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ countries ” in Africa .
He expressed a preference for those from Norway .
A lot .
Using federal money approved for other purposes , he ’ s built more than 120 miles of tall steel fencing along the 2,000-mile Mexico border .
That ’ s about a quarter of the fencing the White House wants to finish by the end of 2020 , though most of the construction so far has replaced existing barriers .
His “ zero tolerance ” policy of prosecuting all illegal border crossings led to thousands of migrant @ @ @ @ @ @ @ placed in shelters in often squalid conditions , producing a public outcry and a lifting of the separation protocol .
He ordered an end to a program that allows hundreds of thousands of so-called Dreamers — undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children — to legally stay and work in the U.S. , although the courts stalled enforcement of the decree .
In recent years , migrants from Central America have poured over the U.S. southern border , many claiming to face persecution at home .
In response , the U.S. ruled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ apply for it in a third country en route to America .
It also stopped allowing applicants to stay in the U.S. while their claims were pending , sending them back to wait in Mexico , where reports of kidnappings and assaults against them have been widespread .
In March , Trump ’ s administration gave border agents the power to expel migrants without giving them a chance to file for asylum , on the grounds they might spread coronavirus .
The U.S. defines refugees separately as those who ’ ve applied for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ has capped the number to be admitted into the U.S. in 2020 at 18,000 ; the limit set before he came into office was 110,000 .
Trump has cited the risk that refugees present a security threat , though they undergo vetting by both the United Nations and the federal government .
Yes .
Under presidential proclamations issued in 2017 and 2020 , citizens of Iran , Libya , North Korea , Syria and Yemen are generally barred from entering the U.S. , whether they wish to visit temporarily or to immigrate .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ , Tanzania , Eritrea , Kyrgyzstan and Myanmar are restricted from immigration .
Of the 12 countries , eight have Muslim majorities .
Trump officials say their governments weren ’ t adequately sharing information about people who might be terrorists or criminals .
He ’ s proposed reshaping legal immigration by adopting a system similar to those used by Australia and Canada .
Applicants would be admitted based on points for such things as having a valuable skill , an advanced education or a plan to create jobs .
Trump would end the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from countries underrepresented in the immigrant pool , such as Botswana and Malaysia .
He wants to limit the number of immigration visas granted to family members of U.S. citizens and permanent residents — beneficiaries of what he calls “ chain migration.
” These changes , however , would require the approval of Congress , which hasn ’ t passed a major immigration law since 1986 .
Biden says he would undo Trump ’ s country-specific bans and restrictions on asylum seekers and refugees .
He pledges to restore protections for the Dreamers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ vice president to Barack Obama , and create a pathway to citizenship for those living in the U.S. illegally .
Biden declined to endorse some of the more contentious plans favored by his progressive rivals within the Democratic Party , such as decriminalizing illegal border crossings and breaking up the immigration and border enforcement agencies .
He has taken flak from some immigration activists for the Obama administration ’ s robust record of deporting people in the country illegally .
Polls suggest most Americans have a more generous view toward immigrants than Trump @ @ @ @ @ @ @ lines , and for those who lean toward Trump , immigration is a galvanizing issue .
Latinos , who have roots in the countries that supply some of the biggest numbers of newcomers to America , are more likely to oppose Trump ’ s immigration policies .
Still , support for him among Latino voters has held steady at around 30 % .


washingtonpost--2020-04-21--Senate Passes $484 Billion Interim Economic Stimulus Package

President Donald Trump said he would sign the legislation and then turn to the next round of stimulus for an economy that has ground to a halt .
The legislation -- Congress ’ third big-ticket pandemic response package -- follows last month ’ s massive $ 2.2 trillion economic stimulus measure , the biggest rescue package in U.S. history .
The first , approved in March , included free virus testing , up to 12 weeks of paid family and sick leave for some workers , and bolstered unemployment and food stamp aid .
McConnell and Senate Democratic leader Chuck @ @ @ @ @ @ @ passing the new measure after the small business aid program ran out of money.
“ It ’ s unfortunate that it took our Democratic colleagues 12 days to agree to a deal that contains essentially nothing that Republicans ever opposed , ” McConnell said .
“ The American people can not be political leverage.
” McConnell ’ s original proposal to replenish the Paycheck Protection Program didn ’ t include any of the other provisions that were ultimately included in the legislation , including aid for hospitals and money to bolster testing for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ won measures aimed at ensuring that businesses without relationships with major banks can get access to Small Business Administration assistance .
“ The hard work of negotiation paid off , ” Schumer said .
“ This legislation is significantly better ” than the original offered by Republicans because it includes an addition $ 220 billion for small businesses , health care providers and a “ down payment ” on a national testing program , he said .
Lawmakers are expected to turn next to a broader measure that will include aid to state @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and possibly for workers at grocery stores , drugstores and others providing needed goods and services to a locked-down American public .
Congress is scheduled to return to Washington on May 4 .
Schumer said the next rescue measure should include funds for state and local governments , hazard pay for front-line workers , food aid , election security and funds for the U.S .
Postal Service .
The Senate approved this latest measure in an almost empty chamber , with almost every senator now back in their home states after signaling to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ passing the measure .
The House will return as early as Thursday for a formal vote .
The new package would provide $ 320 billion to allow the PPP to take new applicants for the program , which provides forgivable loans to small business that keep employees on the payroll for eight weeks .
The bill sets aside $ 30 billion of the PPP loan funds for banks and credit unions with $ 10 billion to $ 50 billion in assets and another $ 30 billion for even smaller institutions .
Democrats pushed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ better serve “ under-banked ” small business like those owned by newer businesses or those owned by women and minorities .
The measure includes $ 60 billion in loans and grants for a separate Economic Injury Disaster Loan program , and makes farms and ranches eligible for the loans .
Also , there is $ 75 billion for hospitals , with a significant portion aimed at those in rural areas , $ 25 billion for virus testing .
The testing funds include $ 18 billion for states , localities , territories , and @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 1 billion for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and $ 1.8 billion for the National Institutes of Health .
Up to $ 1 billion would cover costs of testing for the uninsured .


washingtonpost--2020-04-21--Deal Struck on Interim Stimulus Plan With Senate Poised to Act

The deal was signed off by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell , Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy .
President Donald Trump said he ’ d sign the measure and begin discussions on a next round of stimulus .
Trump in a series of tweets urged Congress to approve the package , adding , “ After I sign this Bill , we will begin discussions on the next Legislative Initiative with fiscal relief to State/Local Governments for lost revenues ” and other spending .
McConnell said he hoped the Senate would quickly act and blamed @ @ @ @ @ @ @ by holding out for inclusion of money they sought for hospitals and testing .
“ I welcome this bipartisan agreement and hope the Senate will quickly pass it once members have reviewed the final text .
I am just sorry that it took my colleagues in Democratic leadership 12 days to accept the inevitable , ” McConnell said .
Schumer touted the agreement to his members as a big win for Democrats .
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her leadership team have sent members notices there will be an 11 a.m. Wednesday call @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
The new package would provide $ 320 billion to replenish the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses , which was part of the $ 2 trillion stimulus approved late last month and ran out of money last week .
Passage would allow the government to take new applicants for the program , which provides forgivable loans to small business that keep employees on the payroll for eight weeks .
The bill sets aside $ 30 billion of the loan funds for banks and credit unions with $ 10 billion to $ 50 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ billion for even smaller institutions .
The plan includes $ 60 billion in loans and grants for a separate Economic Injury Disaster Loan program , and makes farms and ranches eligible for the loans .
Also , there is $ 75 billion for hospitals , with a significant portion aimed at those in rural areas , $ 25 billion for virus testing .
The testing funds include $ 18 billion for states , localities , territories , and tribes to conduct Covid-19 tests , $ 1 billion for the Centers for Disease Control @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the National Institutes of Health .
Up to $ 1 billion would cover costs of testing for the uninsured .
Democrats had blocked a bill almost two weeks ago that would have added $ 250 billion to the small business aid plan without the extra money for other programs .
Republicans hammered Democrats for the move , but Democrats argued that more hospital funds were needed amid the Covid-19 pandemic even if all previous funds hadn ’ t yet been spent .
Ultimately , Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin decided to strike a bipartisan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to some of their demands .
Democrats had also sought $ 150 billion for state and local governments , but Republicans rejected that proposal .
Trump said on Twitter that a further funding measure should include aid to state and local governments as well as “ much needed Infrastructure Investments for Bridges , Tunnels , Broadband , Tax Incentives for Restaurants , Entertainment , Sports , and Payroll Tax Cuts to increase Economic Growth .
”


washingtonpost--2020-04-21--Trump Says He’ll Ask Bigger Companies to Return Emergency Loans

The most important news stories of the day , curated by Post editors and delivered every morning .
By signing @ @ @ @ @ Terms of Use and Privacy Policy


washingtonpost--2020-04-21--Trump Backs Bill on Virus Relief, Including Small Business Funds


washingtonpost--2020-05-13--Analysis | Reopening States Need to Be Ready to Reclose

To ensure that these don ’ t become unmanageable , states and cities need to design circuit breakers — thresholds of viral activity that , when reached , prompt them to impose renewed restrictions .
Many governors who have begun reopening have done so without meeting the data-driven benchmarks set by the White House .
An important one of these is a 14-day downward trajectory of documented Covid-19 cases .
States are advised to continue to follow this guideline as they consider further loosening business restrictions — that is , wait until they see a another two-week decline before moving @ @ @ @ @ @ @ data will send a very different message , however , and states need to be ready to move in the opposite direction when it does .
If hospital capacity is strained , if there ’ s a sustained five-day increase in infections , or if health officials observe a substantial number of new cases that aren ’ t traceable to known outbreaks , then states should return to stricter control measures , according to a reopening plan from former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb that inspired the Trump administration reopening guidelines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ respond to such circuit breakers in the data .
China , for instance , is reacting to a relatively small number of new Covid-19 cases in one region by amping up restrictions there .
Germany , as it reopens , is watching to see whether any region exceeds 50 new infections per 100,000 residents over the course of seven days ; if so , limits on movement and behavior will be reinstated there .
America ’ s high rate of coronavirus infections only amplifies its need to draw such lines .
States need @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , when a possible surge in Covid-19 could combine with an emerging flu season to produce dangerous new outbreaks .
A renewed threat to hospital capacity should be one key circuit breaker , but it should not be the only one .
Escalating spread of Covid-19 should also trigger targeted restrictions , to provide hospitals and contact tracers a chance to keep up .
As New York City and other heavily affected areas have demonstrated , hospitals take a whole lot longer to empty than they do to fill , and a great @ @ @ @ @ @ @ before all the intensive-care beds are full .
In future surges of Covid-19 , health care providers should not be expected to return to working grueling hours .
They should be kept safe , rested and able to care for patients with conditions other than Covid-19 .
The amount of such care put on hold during the pandemic is surely contributing to the excess mortality seen in several regions of the world .
To the extent that hospitals and other health care facilities can return to the normal business of medicine , they @ @ @ @ @ @ @ outbreaks .
Any renewal of stay-at-home restrictions would be unpleasant and unpopular .
But if states monitor the data carefully and respond in time to keep the coronavirus under control , they can avoid much greater pain in the long run .


washingtonpost--2020-05-13--Analysis | Business As Usual Is Still a Long Way Off


washingtonpost--2020-05-13--Analysis | Billionaire Agnellis Play Hardball with the French

If Covea had been smarter , it wouldn ’ t have agreed to pay so much for PartnerRe in the first place .
The transaction was done in early March when it was clear that the coronavirus was taking hold outside Asia .
But Covea wasn ’ t trying to wriggle off the hook entirely .
It has a strategic goal to diversify away from its home market .
Buying PartnerRe for less would achieve that .
Chiseling a bit off the price might still have left this a fair deal .
Analysts at Bank of America Corp. value PartnerRe @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the initial sale price was a little shy of what could have been justified , but if you factor in a correction in reinsurance stocks during the Covid-19 crisis then a 20 % haircut is warranted .
Now consider the strategic value to the Agnellis of having a big pot of cash to deploy in a world where asset values have fallen almost everywhere .
On that basis , even a less than fair price might have been worth taking .
So why not budge ?
One possible answer lies in the regulatory @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of approval were harder to predict here than would usually be the case .
The transaction would have taken Covea into new territory .
Insurance industry supervisors would have been mindful of it stretching the purchaser ’ s management .
It ’ s one thing for PartnerRe ’ s owners to accept a reduced price , quite another if the lower proceeds aren ’ t certain to land anyway .
Another reason for standing firm lies in the reputational risks of budging .
Blinking in M & A carries long-term costs by undermining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to do some dealmaking .
John Malone , the U.S. cable billionaire , let the sale of his Swiss business collapse last year rather than bow to pressure to cut the price .
Perhaps it ’ s no coincidence that his next big transaction — last week ’ s combination of his U.K. assets with those of Spain ’ s Telefonica SA — was struck on favorable terms to his vehicle , Liberty Global Plc .
All the same , it ’ s still a puzzle that Elkann didn ’ t try harder @ @ @ @ @ @ @ must be the possibility of financial redress .
That wouldn ’ t come from the reported break fee — at about 2 % of the deal , it ’ s puny .
Juicy compensation would require litigation .
Exor NV , the Agnellis ’ investment vehicle , doesn ’ t say in its statement whether it will sue .
While neither side would relish a court battle , Elkann might calculate that Covea would want legal action even less than the Italian side .
A settlement would therefore make sense .
The talks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Hughes is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering deals .
He previously worked for Reuters Breakingviews , as well as the Financial Times and the Independent newspaper .