notrickszone--2020-10-26--Scientists Have Determined A 5°C Warmer Earth ‘Would Provide More Habitable Conditions’

In a new study , scientists insist that since the Earth ’ s highest biomass and biodiversity exist in the warmest regions , “ higher temperatures than currently existing on Earth ” and a “ higher water content ( absolute humidity ) in the atmosphere ” seem to be “ more favorable ” to the planet ’ s inhabitants .
Until a few thousand years ago , when mammoths and wild horses ate exposed grass year-round along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean , the Sahara was grass- and lake-covered , teeming with fish and megafauna and even ancient civilizations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hospitable to plants , animals , and humans .
In addition to being several degrees warmer , the Earth ’ s climate was also much more humid and rainforest-like during the Early Holocene , or up until about 5,000 years ago .
Rainforests have far more biodiversity than cooler climates do , of course .
This is likely why this period is referred to as the “ Humidity Optimum ” by geologists ( Ramos-Roman et al.
, 2018 ) .
In a new study ( Schulze-Makuch et al.
, 2020 ) , scientists @ @ @ @ @ @ @ biodiversity is present in tropical rainforests , and the least in cold polar regions.
” Therefore , higher temperatures – about 5°C warmer than today – would be more “ favorable ” and “ provide more habitable conditions.
” Unfortunately , we humans have not demonstrated we have the capacity to significantly affect the climate in recent decades , and thus we will continue to stand idly by as the Earth ’ s climate changes without us .

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In a new study, scientists insist that since the Earth’s highest biomass and biodiversity exist in the warmest regions, “higher temperatures than currently existing on Earth” and a “higher water content (absolute humidity) in the atmosphere” seem to be “more favorable” to the planet’s inhabitants.
Until a few thousand years ago, when mammoths and wild horses ate exposed grass year-round along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, the Sahara was grass- and lake-covered, teeming with fish and megafauna and even ancient civilizations. These much-warmer periods were obviously more hospitable to plants, animals, and humans.
Image Source: LiveScience
In addition to being several degrees warmer, the Earth’s climate was also much more humid and rainforest-like during the Early Holocene, or up until about 5,000 years ago. Rainforests have far more biodiversity than cooler climates do, of course. This is likely why this period is referred to as the “Humidity Optimum” by geologists (Ramos-Roman et al., 2018).
In a new study (Schulze-Makuch et al., 2020), scientists acknowledge that the “highest biomass and biodiversity is present in tropical rainforests, and the least in cold polar regions.” Therefore, higher temperatures – about 5°C warmer than today – would be more “favorable” and “provide more habitable conditions.”
Unfortunately, we humans have not demonstrated we have the capacity to significantly affect the climate in recent decades, and thus we will continue to stand idly by as the Earth’s climate changes without us.
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notrickszone--2020-10-27--Battery Issues Continue To Plague Electric Cars…BMW Orders “Large-Scale” Recall Of Plugin Hybrids

Reader M.P .
points out how ‘ auto motor sport ’ and other magazines are reporting that BMW is recalling its plugin hybrids on a large scale .
What is the problem ?
Since August this year , BMW has been recalling its plug-in hybrid electric vehicle ( PHEV ) models X1 to 3 and X5 , 3 Series , 3 Series Touring , 2 Series Active Tourer , 7 Series , 5 Series ( incl .
Touring ) and ‘ Mini Countryman ’ .
The reasons given are production errors during welding and impurities , some of which may @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( i.e .
the traction battery ) .
Production batches from the period January 20 to September 18 are partially affected .
In addition to the recall , there is also a delivery stop .
More than 25,000 cars are affected worldwide , 8,000 of which are in the hands of customers ( Germany : 5,300/1,800 ) .
The models already sold currently may not be charged ; during trips only with restrictions .
This should not be a problem , as many customers do not load their company cars off the grid @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Federal Motor Transport Authority will start a check of the cars sold .
The procedure will take about 30 minutes without repair , if necessary .
Not only BMW has the PHEV problem .
Ford , too , has already had to call back its Kuga model .
The reason was a memory error with fire hazard , which prohibited recharging the battery .

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Technical snafus lead to mass recall of BMW hybrid vehicles. Image: Mario Roberto Durán Ortiz jCreative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.
By A.R. Göhring
(Translated by P. Gosselin)
Reader M.P. points out how ‘auto motor sport’ and other magazines are reporting that BMW is recalling its plugin hybrids on a large scale. What is the problem?
Since August this year, BMW has been recalling its plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) models X1 to 3 and X5, 3 Series, 3 Series Touring, 2 Series Active Tourer, 7 Series, 5 Series (incl. Touring) and ‘Mini Countryman’.
The reasons given are production errors during welding and impurities, some of which may cause short circuits in the high-voltage battery (i.e. the traction battery). Production batches from the period January 20 to September 18 are partially affected.
In addition to the recall, there is also a delivery stop. More than 25,000 cars are affected worldwide, 8,000 of which are in the hands of customers (Germany: 5,300/1,800). The models already sold currently may not be charged; during trips only with restrictions. This should not be a problem, as many customers do not load their company cars off the grid.
At the end of October, the Federal Motor Transport Authority will start a check of the cars sold. The procedure will take about 30 minutes without repair, if necessary.
Not only BMW has the PHEV problem. Ford, too, has already had to call back its Kuga model. The reason was a memory error with fire hazard, which prohibited recharging the battery.
Read more: europe.autonews.com/hybrids-fire-risk-samsung-battery.
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notrickszone--2020-10-28--New Paper: Sea Levels Higher 4000 Years Ago With Reefs Adapting

A new in-press journal pre-proof paper by Hallmann et al examines reef response to sea-level and environmental changes in the Central South Pacific over the past 6000 years .
The paper documents that sea levels globally saw a single short-lived sea-level highstand between 4100 and 3400 yr before present and coral reefs adapt to changes .
Geological records of coastal system evolution during past higher and/or rising sea levels provide an important baseline for developing projections regarding the response of modern coastal systems to future sea-level rise .
The mid-late Holocene corresponds to the most recent window into natural variability @ @ @ @ @ @ @ and low-amplitude sea-level changes that were mostly governed by a limited glacio-eustatic contribution , most likely sourced from Antarctica , and ‘ glacial isostatic adjustment ’ processes .
This paper documents in unprecedented detail the response of coral reefs and coastal systems to changing accommodation space in relation to mid-late Holocene sea-level changes in French Polynesia .
The sea-level curve that underpins this study has a global significance and documents a single short-lived sea-level highstand between 4.10 and 3.40 kyr BP .
The amplitude of the highstand is less than one metre , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ level at the end of the current century .
The reported relative sea-level changes are characterized by slow rates ranging from a few tens of millimetres per year to up to 2.5 mm/yr and by significant sea-level stability ( stillstands ) lasting more than a century and up to 250 years , defining a step-like pattern .
Sea-level variability probably driven by climatic oscillations on interannual to millennial time scales is evidenced during the entire time window .
The detailed reconstruction of reef development over the last 6000 years brings valuable information regarding @ @ @ @ @ @ @ periods of higher sea level and wave energy regimes .
The persistence of stable and optimal depositional environments over the last 6000 years is demonstrated by the constant overall composition and diversity of reef communities and the almost continuous development of coral microatolls .
The facies distribution as well as the lateral extension and shift of facies belts have been governed by variations in accommodation space , which are controlled by relative sea-level changes and antecedent topography .
The widespread development of mid-late Holocene reef deposits in coastal areas suggests that they have @ @ @ @ @ @ @ related to the formation and shaping of modern islands .

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A new in-press journal pre-proof paper by Hallmann et al examines reef response to sea-level and environmental changes in the Central South Pacific over the past 6000 years.
Hat-tip: Reader Mary Brown
The paper documents that sea levels globally saw a single short-lived sea-level highstand between 4100 and 3400 yr before present and coral reefs adapt to changes.
Abstract
Geological records of coastal system evolution during past higher and/or rising sea levels provide an important baseline for developing projections regarding the response of modern coastal systems to future sea-level rise. The mid-late Holocene corresponds to the most recent window into natural variability prior to the Anthropocene and involves slow-rate and low-amplitude sea-level changes that were mostly governed by a limited glacio-eustatic contribution, most likely sourced from Antarctica, and ‘glacial isostatic adjustment’ processes.
This paper documents in unprecedented detail the response of coral reefs and coastal systems to changing accommodation space in relation to mid-late Holocene sea-level changes in French Polynesia.
The sea-level curve that underpins this study has a global significance and documents a single short-lived sea-level highstand between 4.10 and 3.40 kyr BP. The amplitude of the highstand is less than one metre, within the range of the predicted sea level at the end of the current century. The reported relative sea-level changes are characterized by slow rates ranging from a few tens of millimetres per year to up to 2.5 mm/yr and by significant sea-level stability (stillstands) lasting more than a century and up to 250 years, defining a step-like pattern. Sea-level variability probably driven by climatic oscillations on interannual to millennial time scales is evidenced during the entire time window.
The detailed reconstruction of reef development over the last 6000 years brings valuable information regarding coral reef dynamics and coastal processes during periods of higher sea level and wave energy regimes. The persistence of stable and optimal depositional environments over the last 6000 years is demonstrated by the constant overall composition and diversity of reef communities and the almost continuous development of coral microatolls. The facies distribution as well as the lateral extension and shift of facies belts have been governed by variations in accommodation space, which are controlled by relative sea-level changes and antecedent topography. The widespread development of mid-late Holocene reef deposits in coastal areas suggests that they have played a prominent role in global processes related to the formation and shaping of modern islands.
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notrickszone--2020-10-29--3 More New Studies Show Modern Arctic Sea Ice Extent Is Greater Than Nearly Any Time In The Last 10,

3 More New Studies Show Modern Arctic Sea Ice Extent Is Greater Than Nearly Any Time In The Last 10,000 Years

For years scientists have been using biomarker evidence ( IP , PIP ) to reconstruct the Arctic ’ s sea ice history .
The evidence shows modern ( 20th-21st century ) Arctic sea ice is at its greatest extent since the Holocene began .
Scientists ( Wu et al.
, 2020 ) have determined that from about 14,000 to 8,000 years ago , when CO2 lingered near 250 ppm , the Beaufort Sea ( Arctic ) was “ nearly ice free throughout the year ” ( < 0.2 PIP ) and ~4°C warmer than today in winter .
With CO2 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 70-100 % ice-covered ( > 0.8 PIP ) for all but 1-2 summer months in the modern ( 1988-2007 ) era .
Interestingly , another study of this same Beaufort Sea region ( Durantou et al.
, 2012 ) revealed the late 1800s to 1930s were up to 3°C warmer than the late 20th and early 21st century averages and sea ice was present for 1.1 fewer months per year during these earlier periods .
Another new study ( Allaart et al.
, 2020 ) concludes that from around 10,000 to 5,000 years @ @ @ @ @ @ @ glaciers had retreated many km further back than their modern positions .
And the smaller ice caps had “ disappeared ” from the region .
In contrast , during the last 500 to 700 years Svalbard sea ice has expanded to its highest extent of the Holocene ( 11,700 years ago to present ) .
The Holocene ’ s sea ice maximum just developed during modern times , as the authors note there has been an “ increase in IP concentrations after c. 0.7±0.2 cal .
ka BP , with a maximum in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ northeast of Svalbard ( Brice et al.
, 2020 ) reveals today ’ s sea surface temperatures of “ < 0°C ” are at least 4°C colder than they were just a few thousand years ago , when the Arctic was sea ice free for all but “ a couple of months ” every year .
Notice the graphics that show today ’ s sea ice monthly duration ( ~11 months per year ) and summer sea surface temperatures ( zero degrees Celsius ) are among the highest and lowest ( respectively ) @ @ @ @

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For years scientists have been using biomarker evidence (IP 25 , PIP 25 ) to reconstruct the Arctic’s sea ice history. The evidence shows modern (20th-21st century) Arctic sea ice is at its greatest extent since the Holocene began.
Scientists (Wu et al., 2020) have determined that from about 14,000 to 8,000 years ago, when CO2 lingered near 250 ppm, the Beaufort Sea (Arctic) was “nearly ice free throughout the year” (<0.2 PIP 25 ) and ~4°C warmer than today in winter.
With CO2 at ~400 ppm, this region is 70-100% ice-covered (>0.8 PIP 25 ) for all but 1-2 summer months in the modern (1988-2007) era.
Interestingly, another study of this same Beaufort Sea region (Durantou et al., 2012) revealed the late 1800s to 1930s were up to 3°C warmer than the late 20th and early 21st century averages and sea ice was present for 1.1 fewer months per year during these earlier periods.
Another new study (Allaart et al., 2020) concludes that from around 10,000 to 5,000 years ago, Arctic Svalbard (Wijdefjorden) glaciers had retreated many km further back than their modern positions. And the smaller ice caps had “disappeared” from the region.
In contrast, during the last 500 to 700 years Svalbard sea ice has expanded to its highest extent of the Holocene (11,700 years ago to present).
The Holocene’s sea ice maximum just developed during modern times, as the authors note there has been an “increase in IP 25 concentrations after c. 0.7±0.2 cal. ka BP, with a maximum in the modern sediments.”
A study site northeast of Svalbard (Brice et al., 2020) reveals today’s sea surface temperatures of “<0°C” are at least 4°C colder than they were just a few thousand years ago, when the Arctic was sea ice free for all but “a couple of months” every year.
Notice the graphics that show today’s sea ice monthly duration (~11 months per year) and summer sea surface temperatures (zero degrees Celsius) are among the highest and lowest (respectively) of the Holocene.
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notrickszone--2020-10-30--Analysis Suggests Elon Musk’s Vision Of A Battery-Powered Society Remains An Unworkable Fantasy

Our energy supply system finds itself in a transformation over to a far greater share of renewable energies .
Though some have been fooled into believing the transformation can be done completely in just a matter of a few years , sobriety tells us it ’ s going to take considerably longer , and batteries are not the answer to the supply volatility problem .
Battery storage “ still needs to demonstrate that it eventually can become cost-effective and reduce its significant ecological footprint , ” says Dr. Sebastian Lüning .
Wind and solar energy ’ s high supply volatility @ @ @ @ @ @ @ off in the future .
Chart above depicts Germany ’ s demand and supply by wind in sun .
What follows is the abstract of a review of renewable energies ( starts on page 204 ) by Dr. Sebastian Lüning ( emphasis added ) .
As the share of renewable energies keeps rising in the global energy mix year by year , volatility of wind and solar energy sources needs to be carefully counterbalanced with adequate Electrical Energy Storage ( EES ) .
Suitable storage solutions need to have mass storage capacity to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weeks during renewable supply gaps .
At the same time , storage needs to be cost-effective and full-cycle energy losses need to be minimized .
Stimulated by the wish to achieve decarbonization as quickly as possible , significant research efforts are currently underway worldwide to come up with solutions to the energy storage challenge .
This article summarizes the most promising technologies to fill the EES gap , highlighting advantages , challenges and chances of mid-term technological breakthrough .
In order to facilitate the discussion , the storage technologies are grouped here into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Rechargeable batteries , ( 2 ) Pumped hydro energy storage , ( 3 ) Power-to-gas and power-to-liquid , ( 4 ) Compressed air , ( 5 ) Thermal , and ( 6 ) Flywheels .
Whilst all technologies will be useful for specific applications , artificial fuels ( power-to-liquid and power-to-gas ) appear particularly promising to take the energy transition to a new level .
Artificial fuels can be stored and transported using established transportation logistics from the hydrocarbon industry .
Systems are easily upscalable so that renewable supply gaps of several days @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Artificial fuels can be exported to customers over great distances without major losses , opening up the chance to not only capture surplus electricity for domestic storage but also to specifically produce energy for the export market .
The latter applies particularly to sun- and wind-rich regions .
A second promising technology for the energy transition is thermal energy storage ( TES ) which may soon allow 24 hour operations of solar plants as well as energy storage between the seasons with only small losses .
Battery storage has also got potential @ @ @ @ @ @ @ eventually can become cost-effective and reduce its significant ecological footprint .
Clearing the energy storage bottleneck will be the key challenge for a full-blown switch to renewable energy societies and a robust commercial basis for energy producers , with no recourse to state subsidies .
Clearly there ’ s a long way to go before a zero-carbon energy supply can be achieved .
People who say it can be done by 2025 , 2030 or even 2050 don ’ t know what they ’ re talking about .

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Our energy supply system finds itself in a transformation over to a far greater share of renewable energies. Though some have been fooled into believing the transformation can be done completely in just a matter of a few years, sobriety tells us it’s going to take considerably longer, and batteries are not the answer to the supply volatility problem.
Battery storage “still needs to demonstrate that it eventually can become cost-effective and reduce its significant ecological footprint,” says Dr. Sebastian Lüning.
Wind and solar energy’s high supply volatility require mass storage capacity whose solution remains off in the future. Chart above depicts Germany’s demand and supply by wind in sun.
What follows is the abstract of a review of renewable energies (starts on page 204) by Dr. Sebastian Lüning (emphasis added).
Abstract
As the share of renewable energies keeps rising in the global energy mix year by year, volatility of wind and solar energy sources needs to be carefully counterbalanced with adequate Electrical Energy Storage (EES). Suitable storage solutions need to have mass storage capacity to supply whole countries for several days to weeks during renewable supply gaps. At the same time, storage needs to be cost-effective and full-cycle energy losses need to be minimized. Stimulated by the wish to achieve decarbonization as quickly as possible, significant research efforts are currently underway worldwide to come up with solutions to the energy storage challenge. This article summarizes the most promising technologies to fill the EES gap, highlighting advantages, challenges and chances of mid-term technological breakthrough. In order to facilitate the discussion, the storage technologies are grouped here into the following categories: (1) Rechargeable batteries, (2) Pumped hydro energy storage, (3) Power-to-gas and power-to-liquid, (4) Compressed air, (5) Thermal, and (6) Flywheels. Whilst all technologies will be useful for specific applications, artificial fuels (power-to-liquid and power-to-gas) appear particularly promising to take the energy transition to a new level. Artificial fuels can be stored and transported using established transportation logistics from the hydrocarbon industry. Systems are easily upscalable so that renewable supply gaps of several days or even weeks can be effectively bridged. Artificial fuels can be exported to customers over great distances without major losses, opening up the chance to not only capture surplus electricity for domestic storage but also to specifically produce energy for the export market. The latter applies particularly to sun- and wind-rich regions. A second promising technology for the energy transition is thermal energy storage (TES) which may soon allow 24 hour operations of solar plants as well as energy storage between the seasons with only small losses. Battery storage has also got potential but still needs to demonstrate that it eventually can become cost-effective and reduce its significant ecological footprint. Clearing the energy storage bottleneck will be the key challenge for a full-blown switch to renewable energy societies and a robust commercial basis for energy producers, with no recourse to state subsidies.
Clearly there’s a long way to go before a zero-carbon energy supply can be achieved. People who say it can be done by 2025, 2030 or even 2050 don’t know what they’re talking about.
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notrickszone--2020-10-31--Bureau Of Meteorology: Central, Eastern Tropical Pacific “Coolest Since La Niña Event Since 2012”

Data recorded from the equatorial Pacific show a substantial La Nina in place , and falling temperatures with it .
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology ( BOM ) here reported on October 27 : “ All of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the current La Niña will persist until at least January 2021 .
Most climate models reach their peak in December , before starting to weaken.
” “ Some models indicate that the current La Niña could possibly reach similar strength to the La Niña of 2010–12 , ” reports the BOM .
“ Sea @ @ @ @ @ @ @ tropical Pacific are the coolest since the end of the La Niña event in 2012 , but they are not as cool as during October 2010.
” The following chart shows the latest sea surface temperature anomaly for the Pacific El Niño equatorial regions of 3 and 4 : The substantial La Niña event will likely cause the global mean temperature to drop a few tenths of a degree Celsius .
Another factor that could spell trouble , especially for Europe , is the currently very low solar activity .
Harsh European winters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ low solar activity .
Indeed , as in previous calculations , the experimental numerical NOAA model CFSv2 recently predicted a cold and long winter in large parts of Europe , especially from January 2021 until May 2021 , see the following chart : The more recent runs have backed off a bit on the intensity of the cold .
Of course these seasonal forecasts are fraught with uncertainty , but should these come true , it could be an especially long 2020/21 winter in Europe .
This would only further exacerbate the COVID-19 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ blast just seen across North America may be a trailer of what ’ s in store for other parts of the northern hemisphere this winter .

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Data recorded from the equatorial Pacific show a substantial La Nina in place, and falling temperatures with it.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) here reported on October 27: “All of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the current La Niña will persist until at least January 2021. Most climate models reach their peak in December, before starting to weaken.”
Strong sea surface cooling developing in the equatorial Pacific. Image Tropical Tidbits
“Some models indicate that the current La Niña could possibly reach similar strength to the La Niña of 2010–12,” reports the BOM. “Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are the coolest since the end of the La Niña event in 2012, but they are not as cool as during October 2010.”
The following chart shows the latest sea surface temperature anomaly for the Pacific El Niño equatorial regions of 3 and 4:
Image: Tropical Tidbits
The substantial La Niña event will likely cause the global mean temperature to drop a few tenths of a degree Celsius.
Low solar activity
Another factor that could spell trouble, especially for Europe, is the currently very low solar activity. Harsh European winters have been found to be linked to low solar activity.
Indeed, as in previous calculations, the experimental numerical NOAA model CFSv2 recently predicted a cold and long winter in large parts of Europe, especially from January 2021 until May 2021, see the following chart:
Source: Meteociel CFSv2 forecasts winter 2020/21 Europe
Hat-tip: SnowFan
The more recent runs have backed off a bit on the intensity of the cold.
Of course these seasonal forecasts are fraught with uncertainty, but should these come true, it could be an especially long 2020/21 winter in Europe. This would only further exacerbate the COVID-19 epidemic.
The unusual record-setting winter cold blast just seen across North America may be a trailer of what’s in store for other parts of the northern hemisphere this winter.
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notrickszone--2020-11-02--Model Failure: ‘All Model Runs Warmed Faster Than Observations’ … CO2 Sensitivity Estimates ‘Unreali

Model Failure: ‘All Model Runs Warmed Faster Than Observations’ … CO2 Sensitivity Estimates ‘Unrealistically High’

Scientists continue to document severe discrepancies between climate modeling and observations in newly published scientific papers .
1 .
Models run too hot and yield “ unrealistically high ” estimates of the climate ’ s sensitivity to CO2 forcing .
“ All model runs warmed faster than observations in the lower troposphere and midtroposphere , in the tropics , and globally .
On average , and in most individual cases , the trend difference is significant.
” “ [ W ] e present evidence that the distribution of ECS [ equilibrium climate sensitivity ] values across the model is unrealistically @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t decide if cloud feedbacks are positive or negative .
Half think they ’ re positive , the other half negative .
“ Very intriguing is however , that 7 out of 13 models show positive ΔR [ cloud feedbacks ] in the Arctic while the other 6 have negative values .
This implies that half of the models analyzed here simulate local runaway climate systems in which the gain of energy is larger than the loss of energy if advection is not taken into account .
These models increase the initial radiative @ @ @ @ @ @ @ On the other hand , models exhibiting little warmings tend to be dominated by the negative Planck feedback and can be brought back to radiative balance without the contribution of advection.
” 3 .
Long-term climate ( rainfall ) projections are “ dubious ” and almost “ non-informative , ” calling into question their “ theoretical and practical relevance.
” “ A relevant case study by Lee and Ouarda ( 2010 ) concluded that predictions of decadal streamflow extremes using the NAO as a covariate were impacted by large uncertainty to the point @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a systematic investigation of long-term rainfall records , corroborated by simulation results , we have verified that local trends have poor out-of-sample performance , being outperformed in their predictions by simpler models , as the local mean .
This empirical finding suggests that the large inherent variability present in the rainfall process makes the practice of extrapolating local features in the long-term future dubious , especially when the complexity of the latter increases .
This in turn questions the theoretical and practical relevance of projections of rainfall trends and the grounds of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to climate model claims that warming induces perpetually rising positive feedbacks with water vapor , producing even more warming , the observed “ buoyancy effect ” suggests higher atmospheric water vapor means outgoing longwave radiation ( OLR ) is enhanced , not reduced .
This negative water vapor feedback stabilizes the Earth ’ s climate and prevents runaway warming .
“ We propose that the vapor buoyancy effect can increase Earth ’ s OLR and helps stabilize Earth ’ s climate by regulating the atmosphere ’ s thermal structure .
Figure 1 shows @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ) fields in the moisture space from 2°S to 2°N using NASA AIRS data .
In the free troposphere ( p < 850 hPa ) , buoyancy is horizontally uniform because of the small Cori olis parameter and efficient gravity waves ( Charney 1963 ; Bretherton and Smolarkiewicz 1989 ; Sobel et al .
2001 ; Yang 2018a ) .
However , temperature increases toward dry columns due to the vapor buoyancy effect .
Moving toward the dry columns , moisture and its associated vapor buoyancy are reduced .
To maintain uniform buoyancy @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Although there is no such constraints in the boundary layer , we can assume that ∆T = 0 at the surface temperature because of the uniform sea surface temperature ( SST ) .
We , therefore , require ∆T equals ∆TW BG in the free troposphere but smoothly decays to 0 at surface : ease with climate warming due to increasing atmospheric moisture , leading to enhanced OLR over the dry area .
This is a negative feedback which can help to stabilize Earth ’ s climate .
”

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Scientists continue to document severe discrepancies between climate modeling and observations in newly published scientific papers.
1. Models run too hot and yield “unrealistically high” estimates of the climate’s sensitivity to CO2 forcing.
“All model runs warmed faster than observations in the lower troposphere and midtroposphere, in the tropics, and globally. On average, and in most individual cases, the trend difference is significant.”
“[W]e present evidence that the distribution of ECS [equilibrium climate sensitivity] values across the model is unrealistically high.”
2. Models can’t decide if cloud feedbacks are positive or negative. Half think they’re positive, the other half negative.
“Very intriguing is however, that 7 out of 13 models show positive ΔR [cloud feedbacks] in the Arctic while the other 6 have negative values. This implies that half of the models analyzed here simulate local runaway climate systems in which the gain of energy is larger than the loss of energy if advection is not taken into account. These models increase the initial radiative perturbation rather than to reduce it. On the other hand, models exhibiting little warmings tend to be dominated by the negative Planck feedback and can be brought back to radiative balance without the contribution of advection.”
3. Long-term climate (rainfall) projections are “dubious” and almost “non-informative,” calling into question their “theoretical and practical relevance.”
“A relevant case study by Lee and Ouarda (2010) concluded that predictions of decadal streamflow extremes using the NAO as a covariate were impacted by large uncertainty to the point of almost being non-informative.”
“From a systematic investigation of long-term rainfall records, corroborated by simulation results, we have verified that local trends have poor out-of-sample performance, being outperformed in their predictions by simpler models, as the local mean. This empirical finding suggests that the large inherent variability present in the rainfall process makes the practice of extrapolating local features in the long-term future dubious, especially when the complexity of the latter increases. This in turn questions the theoretical and practical relevance of projections of rainfall trends and the grounds of the related abundant publications.”
4. Contrary to climate model claims that warming induces perpetually rising positive feedbacks with water vapor, producing even more warming, the observed “buoyancy effect” suggests higher atmospheric water vapor means outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is enhanced, not reduced. This negative water vapor feedback stabilizes the Earth’s climate and prevents runaway warming.
“We propose that the vapor buoyancy effect can increase Earth’s OLR and helps stabilize Earth’s climate by regulating the atmosphere’s thermal structure. Figure 1 shows the temperature and virtual temperature (buoyancy) fields in the moisture space from 2°S to 2°N using NASA AIRS data. In the free troposphere (p < 850 hPa), buoyancy is horizontally uniform because of the small Cori olis parameter and efficient gravity waves (Charney 1963; Bretherton and Smolarkiewicz 1989; Sobel et al. 2001; Yang 2018a). However, temperature increases toward dry columns due to the vapor buoyancy effect. Moving toward the dry columns, moisture and its associated vapor buoyancy are reduced. To maintain uniform buoyancy, temperature has to increase.”
“Although there is no such constraints in the boundary layer, we can assume that ∆T = 0 at the surface temperature because of the uniform sea surface temperature (SST). We, therefore, require ∆T equals ∆TW BG in the free troposphere but smoothly decays to 0 at surface: ease with climate warming due to increasing atmospheric moisture, leading to enhanced OLR over the dry area. This is a negative feedback which can help to stabilize Earth’s climate.”


notrickszone--2020-11-04--Added Poverty From Corona Lockdowns Killing 15,000 Children Per Day, German Dentist Claims

Dr. Ulrich Keck called in on a German ARD public television talk show to express his views on the new @ @ @ @ @ imposed across Germany .
According to the German dentist ( 65 ) , the lockdowns @ @ @ @ @ the disease itself due to the added massive poverty they are causing globally .
He @ @ @ @ @ ” is being completely ignored .
“ For example , 15,000 children die of hunger @ @ @ @ @ , now it ’ s 30,000 because the paths to supply them have been interrupted @ @ @ @ @ He characterizes the German lockdown as completely unnecessary because the country has plenty of intensive @ @ @ @ @ then pleads for an end to the panic spreading .
At the end Keck concludes @ @ @ @ @ freedom for security , you end up with neither .
”

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Lockdowns lead to major collateral damage.
Dr. Ulrich Keck called in on a German ARD public television talk show to express his views on the new lockdown that has just been imposed across Germany.
According to the German dentist (65), the lockdowns are causing more harm than the disease itself due to the added massive poverty they are causing globally.
He claims the “collateral damage” is being completely ignored.
“For example, 15,000 children die of hunger every day on the planet, now it’s 30,000 because the paths to supply them have been interrupted,” says Keck. He characterizes the German lockdown as completely unnecessary because the country has plenty of intensive care beds available. Keck then pleads for an end to the panic spreading.
At the end Keck concludes: “When you sacrifice freedom for security, you end up with neither.”
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notrickszone--2020-11-03--Get Out And Vote… And Remember Who It Is That’s Always Trying To Get You To Give Up Your Soul

I don ’ t think there ’ s much focus on climate change today , so you ’ ll pardon @ @ @ @ @ it .
Remember that the devil is always trying to get your soul by tempting @ @ @ @ @ The devil tries to tempt you with free stuff and bullshit promises – like a @ @ @ @ @ planet .
Urging all Americans to get out and vote !

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I don’t think there’s much focus on climate change today, so you’ll pardon me for not posting about it.
Remember that the devil is always trying to get your soul by tempting you with free stuff.
The devil tries to tempt you with free stuff and bullshit promises – like a wonderful climate and saving the planet.
Urging all Americans to get out and vote!
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notrickszone--2020-11-05--New Study Effectively Eliminates Confidence In Human Attribution For Modern Global Warming

The forcing uncertainties and lack of observational measurements in the top-to-bottom global ocean preclude an assessment that modern warmth is due to anthropogenic activities .
• 93 % of the changes to the Earth ’ s energy budget , manifested as warming of the Earth system , are expressed in the global ocean .
Just 1 % of global warming is atmospheric .
• Even with the advent of “ quasi-global ” temperature sampling of the ocean since 2005 ( ARGO ) , these floats “ do not measure below 2,000-m depth.
” This means that temperature changes in “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ” are still not being measured today .
• To detect the effects of anthropogenic forcing , it would require energy budget imbalance measurement precision of 0.1 W/m² at the top of the atmosphere ( TOA ) .
Uncertainty in the forcing changes affecting climate are ±4 W/m² , meaning that uncertainty is about 80 times greater than an anthropogenic signal detection .
• Past changes in global ocean heat content , such as the last deglaciation , have been 20 times larger than modern changes .
• Ocean heat storage during the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , or MCA ) was much greater than modern .
Modern global ocean heat uptake is “ just one-third ” of what is required to reach the levels attained during Medieval times .
One final point .
Dr. Gebbie asserts that approximately 15 % of modern global warming ( ocean ) can be attributed to geothermal heat fluxes through the sea floor that “ persistently heat the ocean.
” Interestingly , he also assesses that the value attained for geothermal heating of the ocean , 87 mW/m² , is similar to that which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ( melt ice sheets ) and transition into an interglacial .
Considering the ocean bottom waters warmed up 2°C from 19,000 to 17,000 years ago about 1,000 years before the surface warmed ( and CO2 began rising ) ( Stott et al.
, 2007 ) , and that Arctic bottom waters were 6-10°C warmer than today at the beginning of the Holocene about 10,000 years ago ( Beierlein et al.
, 2015 ) , geothermal heat fluxes could potentially explain a large portion of glacial-interglacial transitions – as well as millennial-scale global ocean @ @ @

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The forcing uncertainties and lack of observational measurements in the top-to-bottom global ocean preclude an assessment that modern warmth is due to anthropogenic activities.
Key points from a new paper (Gebbie, 2021):
• 93% of the changes to the Earth’s energy budget, manifested as warming of the Earth system, are expressed in the global ocean. Just 1% of global warming is atmospheric.
• Even with the advent of “quasi-global” temperature sampling of the ocean since 2005 (ARGO), these floats “do not measure below 2,000-m depth.” This means that temperature changes in “approximately half the ocean’s volume” are still not being measured today.
• To detect the effects of anthropogenic forcing, it would require energy budget imbalance measurement precision of 0.1 W/m² at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Uncertainty in the forcing changes affecting climate are ±4 W/m², meaning that uncertainty is about 80 times greater than an anthropogenic signal detection.
• Past changes in global ocean heat content, such as the last deglaciation, have been 20 times larger than modern changes.
• Ocean heat storage during the Medieval Warm Period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, or MCA) was much greater than modern. Modern global ocean heat uptake is “just one-third” of what is required to reach the levels attained during Medieval times.
One final point. Dr. Gebbie asserts that approximately 15% of modern global warming (ocean) can be attributed to geothermal heat fluxes through the sea floor that “persistently heat the ocean.” Interestingly, he also assesses that the value attained for geothermal heating of the ocean, 87 mW/m², is similar to that which is required to end a glacial period (melt ice sheets) and transition into an interglacial.
Considering the ocean bottom waters warmed up 2°C from 19,000 to 17,000 years ago about 1,000 years before the surface warmed (and CO2 began rising) (Stott et al., 2007), and that Arctic bottom waters were 6-10°C warmer than today at the beginning of the Holocene about 10,000 years ago (Beierlein et al., 2015), geothermal heat fluxes could potentially explain a large portion of glacial-interglacial transitions – as well as millennial-scale global ocean temperature changes.
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notrickszone--2020-11-06--Climate Scientists Do The Most Flying, “Damage” To The Climate…Fly 9 Times A Year!

A survey appearing in the Journal Global Environmental Change shows climate scientists fly more often than other researchers .
On @ @ @ @ @ by plane more often each year than other scientists , the large , international survey @ @ @ @ @ travel found .
Especially professors , fly more than other researchers .
More than 1,400 @ @ @ @ @ being asked how often they fly and why .
Most respondents came from the Netherlands @ @ @ @ @ Australia .
Climate experts fly on average five times a year according to the study @ @ @ @ @ more frequent with increasing professional experience .
Climate research professors fly nine times a year @ @ @ @ @ , environmental psychologist at the University of Bath , UK , who led the study @ @ @ @ @ figures are pretty blatant and should be a wake-up call for the entire scientific community @ @

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A survey appearing in the Journal Global Environmental Change shows climate scientists fly more often than other researchers.
On average, climate researchers travel by plane more often each year than other scientists, the large, international survey and experimental study of academic travel found.
Especially professors, fly more than other researchers.
The paper’s abstract follows:
Aviation is a fast-growing sector, releasing more carbon dioxide per passenger kilometre than other transport modes. For climate change researchers, work-related travel – including for conferences and fieldwork – is a major carbon-emitting activity. At the same time, many argue that climate scientists have an important role in curbing their own aviation emissions to align their practices with their assertions in relation to emissions reduction. We examine the tensions between competing professional demands in relation to flying; measure levels of flying by climate and non-climate researchers; assess influences on choices and attitudes; and consider how information provision and structural changes might enable changes in practice. Study 1 entails a large, international survey of flying undertaken by climate change (including sustainability and environmental science) researchers and those from other disciplines (N = 1408). Study 2 tests effects of varying information provision on researchers’ behavioural intentions and policy support to reduce flying (N = 362). Unexpectedly, we find climate change researchers – particularly professors – fly more than other researchers, but are also more likely to have taken steps to reduce or offset their flying. Providing information about the impacts of aviation increases behavioural intentions and support for institutional policies to reduce flying, particularly amongst more pro-environmental respondents. However, while attitudinal factors (e.g., personal norm) predict willingness to reduce flying, structural/social factors (e.g., family commitments, location) are more important in predicting actual flying behaviour. Recent initiatives to develop a low-carbon and more inclusive research culture within climate science and the broader research community thus need to be supported by broader policies and technologies to encourage and enable low-carbon and avoided travel.
More than 1,400 scientists from 59 countries are being asked how often they fly and why. Most respondents came from the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Australia. Climate experts fly on average five times a year according to the study.
Experienced climate scientists fly 9 times a year
Also air travel becomes more frequent with increasing professional experience. Climate research professors fly nine times a year on average.
Lorraine Whitmarsh, environmental psychologist at the University of Bath, UK, who led the study, said: “These figures are pretty blatant and should be a wake-up call for the entire scientific community.”
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notrickszone--2020-11-07--Number Of Hot Days In Tokyo Falls Modestly Over Past 24 Years…Also Tokyo October Cooling Slightly

As urban expansion continues worldwide , it wouldn ’ t surprise anyone that cities would see a growing number of hot days as asphalt , concrete , steel and automobiles act as heat sinks that absorb the summer sun ’ s energy , a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect ( UHI ) .
Indeed this has been the case for many German cities over the past decades .
Though he climate in Europe has changed over the past 30 years , that change is likely due to natural cyclic pattern changes .
But even with a stronger @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s sprawling megalopolis of Tokyo has not seen an increase in the number of hot days ( days where the thermometer climb to 30°C or higher ) , as the following chart clearly depicts : Chart shows the number of days each year ( May 1st to October 31st ) where the temperature rose to 30°C or more in Tokyo .
Data source : Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA ) .
Clearly the number of hot days has little to do with CO2 emissions .
Also we ’ ve got the mean @ @ @ @ @ @ @ : Above the chart shows that the mean October temperature in the city of Tokyo has not risen in almost 3 decades .
In fact it has trended downward a bit , though statistically insignificantly .
So if anyone is claiming Tokyo is getting hotter days and hotter in general , then they either don ’ t know what they are talking about or they are misleading us .

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By Kirye
and Pierre Gosselin
As urban expansion continues worldwide, it wouldn’t surprise anyone that cities would see a growing number of hot days as asphalt, concrete, steel and automobiles act as heat sinks that absorb the summer sun’s energy, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect (UHI).
Indeed this has been the case for many German cities over the past decades. Though he climate in Europe has changed over the past 30 years, that change is likely due to natural cyclic pattern changes.
Tokyo not seeing hotter summer highs
But even with a stronger UHI and supposed climate warming, Japan’s sprawling megalopolis of Tokyo has not seen an increase in the number of hot days (days where the thermometer climb to 30°C or higher), as the following chart clearly depicts:
Chart shows the number of days each year (May 1st to October 31st) where the temperature rose to 30°C or more in Tokyo. Data source: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).
Clearly the number of hot days has little to do with CO2 emissions.
Tokyo October not warming
Also we’ve got the mean temperature data for October 2020 for Tokyo:
Data source: JMA
Above the chart shows that the mean October temperature in the city of Tokyo has not risen in almost 3 decades. In fact it has trended downward a bit, though statistically insignificantly.
So if anyone is claiming Tokyo is getting hotter days and hotter in general, then they either don’t know what they are talking about or they are misleading us.
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notrickszone--2020-11-08--Baffling Choice For Press Conference Location…Is Trump Team Miles Ahead On 2020 Voter Fraud?

Have Trump/Barr led the Biden campaign into a lethal trap ?
Was a legal FISA warrant obtained to surveil campaign ?
If you watched the Trump Team ’ s press conference yesterday like I did , you probably wondered why on earth they held it where they did : Four Seasons Total Landscaping , owned by Marie Siravo , located in an industrial zone next to an adult bookstore and crematorium in the outskirts of Philadelphia !
The media was completely baffled by the location choice .
Slate , for example , hints the Trump team was probably so incompetent @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the Four Seasons hotel in Philadelphia .
But then earlier this morning I stumbled upon a Twitter thread that provided an interesting viewpoint .
Normally I ’ d dismiss such things as a conspiracy theory , yet my gut feeling tells me maybe there ’ s something behind it .
Here ’ s that Twitter thread .
I ’ ve cut and pasted it fearing that it might disappear .
Could federal agents and crime fighting units really be that smart ?
If this were true , Barr and Trump would be absolute @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a top notch organized crime fighter with half a century of experience .
He ’ s seen it all .
Maybe he ’ s sending a message to the Democrats : We ’ re miles ahead of you .
Could this business also be the location for ballot fraud operations ?
Has it been bugged and surveilled by the authorities for weeks ?
Oh what irony this would be .
Or maybe that location was simply chosen to fool potential protesters and Antifa from showing up and disturbing the press conference .
Anyway @ @ @ @ @ @ @ weird place for a press conference .
Maybe some Democrats are panicking .
One thing is clear : There ’ s mounting hard evidence of massive voter fraud committed and the Democrat operatives are desperate to keep a tight lid on it .

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Have Trump/Barr led the Biden campaign into a lethal trap? Was a legal FISA warrant obtained to surveil campaign?
If you watched the Trump Team’s press conference yesterday like I did, you probably wondered why on earth they held it where they did: Four Seasons Total Landscaping, owned by Marie Siravo, located in an industrial zone next to an adult bookstore and crematorium in the outskirts of Philadelphia!
The media was completely baffled by the location choice. Slate, for example, hints the Trump team was probably so incompetent that they mixed up the business with the Four Seasons hotel in Philadelphia.
But then earlier this morning I stumbled upon a Twitter thread that provided an interesting viewpoint. Normally I’d dismiss such things as a conspiracy theory, yet my gut feeling tells me maybe there’s something behind it. Here’s that Twitter thread. I’ve cut and pasted it fearing that it might disappear.
Could federal agents and crime fighting units really be that smart? If this were true, Barr and Trump would be absolute geniuses. We all know Giuliani is a top notch organized crime fighter with half a century of experience. He’s seen it all. Maybe he’s sending a message to the Democrats: We’re miles ahead of you.
Could this business also be the location for ballot fraud operations? Has it been bugged and surveilled by the authorities for weeks? Oh what irony this would be.
Or maybe that location was simply chosen to fool potential protesters and Antifa from showing up and disturbing the press conference.
Anyway, it’s just a really weird place for a press conference. Maybe some Democrats are panicking. One thing is clear: There’s mounting hard evidence of massive voter fraud committed and the Democrat operatives are desperate to keep a tight lid on it.
Thoughts?
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notrickszone--2020-11-09--2 More Studies Affirm Nothing Unusual Or Unprecedented Is Occurring In Polar Climates Today

Only a few thousand years ago , when CO2 levels were both stable and low ( ~265 ppm ) , the ( 1 ) Arctic had far less ice and more vegetation than it does now and ( 2 ) the massive rate of ice melt in Antarctica rendered modern melt rates negligible by comparison .
A new study ( Cherezova et al.
, 2020 ) reveals that until about 6,500 years ago Bolshevik Island in the Russian High Arctic brimmed with grass , birch and willow trees , and large herbivores grazing on grass year-round .
At that time @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 7.9 mm/yr , which is more than 5 times faster than the global sea level rise trend since 1958 ( ~1.4 mm/yr , Frederikse et al.
, 2018 ) .
Today this same High Arctic island is treeless with “ very scarce vegetation.
” It is locked in sea ice and mean annual temperatures only reach -13°C , which is a “ similar climate to the Lateglacial.
” Modern climate warming “ is not observed ” in either the meteorological or ice core data ( Tvyordoe Lake ) for this region .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ size as they were during the peak of the last ice age ( ~20,000 years ago ) .
Another new study ( Jones et al.
, 2020 ) reveals that from about 7,500 to 4,500 years ago , when CO2 was about 150 ppm lower than today , Antarctica ’ s Ross Sea glaciers abruptly lost 220 meters ( ! )
of ice surface height .
This ice loss – at times reaching > 400 cm per year – occurred throughout the region regardless of the topography .
This strongly implies the “ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ retreat was an ocean warming trend .
The authors point out that the ice surface lowering may have “ continued below the present-day glacier surface , ” only to advance again during the last few hundred years .
A recent study ( Sinclair et al.
, 2012 ) indicates the sea surface temperatures in this region ( western Ross Sea ) have been rapidly cooling ( -1.59°C/decade ) since 1979 , and there has been no net ocean warming since 1882 .
Still another study from this region ( Yokoyama et al.
, @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of the Ross Ice Shelf ” between 5,000 and 1,500 years ago .
Modern melting rates are the slowest in the last 5,000 years and there was “ much warmer water beneath the ice shelf at 5 ka compared with the present.
” These studies strongly imply modern polar climate changes and ice melt rates in both hemispheres are neither unprecedented or unusual .
In fact , if there is anything anomalous about today ’ s polar climates , it ’ s that they are colder and ice melt is less pronounced than @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 8,000 years .

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Only a few thousand years ago, when CO2 levels were both stable and low (~265 ppm), the (1) Arctic had far less ice and more vegetation than it does now and (2) the massive rate of ice melt in Antarctica rendered modern melt rates negligible by comparison.
A new study (Cherezova et al., 2020) reveals that until about 6,500 years ago Bolshevik Island in the Russian High Arctic brimmed with grass, birch and willow trees, and large herbivores grazing on grass year-round. At that time sea levels were rising at rates of 7.9 mm/yr, which is more than 5 times faster than the global sea level rise trend since 1958 (~1.4 mm/yr, Frederikse et al., 2018).
Today this same High Arctic island is treeless with “very scarce vegetation.” It is locked in sea ice and mean annual temperatures only reach -13°C, which is a “similar climate to the Lateglacial.” Modern climate warming “is not observed” in either the meteorological or ice core data (Tvyordoe Lake) for this region. The ice caps are today about the same size as they were during the peak of the last ice age (~20,000 years ago).
Another new study (Jones et al., 2020) reveals that from about 7,500 to 4,500 years ago, when CO2 was about 150 ppm lower than today, Antarctica’s Ross Sea glaciers abruptly lost 220 meters (!) of ice surface height. This ice loss – at times reaching >400 cm per year – occurred throughout the region regardless of the topography. This strongly implies the “overarching external driver” of the glacier retreat was an ocean warming trend.
The authors point out that the ice surface lowering may have “continued below the present-day glacier surface,” only to advance again during the last few hundred years.
A recent study (Sinclair et al., 2012) indicates the sea surface temperatures in this region (western Ross Sea) have been rapidly cooling (-1.59°C/decade) since 1979, and there has been no net ocean warming since 1882.
Still another study from this region (Yokoyama et al., 2016) corroborates a “widespread collapse of the Ross Ice Shelf” between 5,000 and 1,500 years ago. Modern melting rates are the slowest in the last 5,000 years and there was “much warmer water beneath the ice shelf at 5 ka compared with the present.”
These studies strongly imply modern polar climate changes and ice melt rates in both hemispheres are neither unprecedented or unusual. In fact, if there is anything anomalous about today’s polar climates, it’s that they are colder and ice melt is less pronounced than just about any time in the last 8,000 years.
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notrickszone--2020-11-10--Electricity Storage Systems Still Woefully Lack, Indefinitely Hampering The German Green Energy Drea

Electricity Storage Systems Still Woefully Lack, Indefinitely Hampering The German Green Energy Dream

Power shortages , power surpluses , seas of milk and mountains of butter Some of the older generation will still remember the time when the press , radio and television talked about a sea of milk and a mountain of butter .
Politicians had meant well and , in order to aid the farmers , decided on adequate prices for milk .
This planned economy led to an ever increasing quantity of milk in West Germany .
All the talk was about a sea of milk .
There were numerous ideas on what to do with the surplus milk .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ children for school breaks etc .
Surplus milk was processed into milk powder and butter .
The resulting butter was stored in cold stores until there was no room left .
Finally , a part of the butter that could not be sold in Germany was sold to the USSR for a fraction of the market price , and another part was ultimately given away to Chile .
Politicians learned back then that this was the wrong way , and so introduced a milk quota more than 30 years ago to promote agriculture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ milk evaporated and the mountain of butter disappeared .
Today , due to the planned economy with solar and wind power , we have similar conditions as we did with milk and butter .
When the wind blows strongly and the sun shines , coal , gas and nuclear power plants are throttled down .
Nevertheless , we still have a surplus of green electricity at times .
This can not be accommodated by consumers in Germany .
To get this problem under control one has two options .
1 .
You search @ @ @ @ @ @ @ frequently succeeds .
However , they are usually not willing to pay for the surplus electricity .
The power is thus sometimes given away , often money has to be paid on top so that the power gets accepted .
2 .
Wind turbines are turned off if the grid gets overloaded .
The operators of the wind parks , however , are still reimbursed for the price of the unproduced electricity .
These costs are also passed on to us , the electricity consumers .
But there are also times when the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does not shine .
There you could very well use the electricity that was previously available in abundance .
A program for even more wind turbines or solar roofs will not help .
A tenfold amount of solar surfaces does not supply electricity at night and a tenfold amount of wind turbines has no use during calm periods .
In nature , fluctuations are nothing unusual .
We remember the story of the Pharaoh and the 7 fat people and the lean years .
Surplus food was already stored for bad times thousands @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the fluctuations in solar and wind power , electricity storage is therefore urgently needed .
Politicians to plan it out in such a way that additional wind turbines and solar areas are only approved if they are equipped with appropriate storage capacity .
The goal of the Energiewende ( transition to green energies ) is to replace electricity from coal-fired power plants with electricity from the sun and wind .
But it must then also be available around the clock .
This is not possible with the sporadically available electricity from wind turbines @ @ @ @ @ @ @ disparagingly referred to by some people as inferior , fidgety electricity , must be made permanently available by means of electricity storage systems .
Only in this way can a transition to green energies succeed .
Therefore , demonstrations should first take place to demand the introduction of sufficient electricity storage .
Until this is achieved , there will remain a need for coal-fired power plants .
Anyone who wants to abolish coal-fired electricity without a secure and affordable alternative supply , is just sawing off the branch we are all sitting on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hope .
Like the politicians who finally got the mountain of butter mountain and the sea of milk under control with the milk quota , they will also bring the necessary power storage facilities on the way as soon as possible .
Pumped storage facilities for such amounts of electricity are likely to be ruled out due to technical and economic reasons .
The same is true with regards to compressed air storage , which has a lower efficiency than pumped storage plants .
Battery storage is unaffordable at today ’ s costs @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hydrogen as an energy storage from surplus electricity .

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The pitfalls of planned economies…
By Reinhard Storz
(Translated/ edited by P. Gosselin)
Some of the older generation will still remember the time when the press, radio and television talked about a sea of milk and a mountain of butter. Politicians had meant well and, in order to aid the farmers, decided on adequate prices for milk. This planned economy led to an ever increasing quantity of milk in West Germany. All the talk was about a sea of milk. There were numerous ideas on what to do with the surplus milk. One should give milk to the school children for school breaks etc. Surplus milk was processed into milk powder and butter. The resulting butter was stored in cold stores until there was no room left. Finally, a part of the butter that could not be sold in Germany was sold to the USSR for a fraction of the market price, and another part was ultimately given away to Chile.
Politicians learned back then that this was the wrong way, and so introduced a milk quota more than 30 years ago to promote agriculture. As a result the sea of milk evaporated and the mountain of butter disappeared. Today, due to the planned economy with solar and wind power, we have similar conditions as we did with milk and butter. When the wind blows strongly and the sun shines, coal, gas and nuclear power plants are throttled down. Nevertheless, we still have a surplus of green electricity at times. This cannot be accommodated by consumers in Germany. To get this problem under control one has two options.
1. You search for customers in neighboring countries. That frequently succeeds. However, they are usually not willing to pay for the surplus electricity. The power is thus sometimes given away, often money has to be paid on top so that the power gets accepted.
2. Wind turbines are turned off if the grid gets overloaded. The operators of the wind parks, however, are still reimbursed for the price of the unproduced electricity. These costs are also passed on to us, the electricity consumers.
But there are also times when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine. There you could very well use the electricity that was previously available in abundance. A program for even more wind turbines or solar roofs will not help. A tenfold amount of solar surfaces does not supply electricity at night and a tenfold amount of wind turbines has no use during calm periods. In nature, fluctuations are nothing unusual. We remember the story of the Pharaoh and the 7 fat people and the lean years. Surplus food was already stored for bad times thousands of years ago.
To even out the fluctuations in solar and wind power, electricity storage is therefore urgently needed. Politicians to plan it out in such a way that additional wind turbines and solar areas are only approved if they are equipped with appropriate storage capacity. The goal of the Energiewende (transition to green energies) is to replace electricity from coal-fired power plants with electricity from the sun and wind. But it must then also be available around the clock. This is not possible with the sporadically available electricity from wind turbines and solar systems. This electricity, disparagingly referred to by some people as inferior, fidgety electricity, must be made permanently available by means of electricity storage systems. Only in this way can a transition to green energies succeed.
Therefore, demonstrations should first take place to demand the introduction of sufficient electricity storage. Until this is achieved, there will remain a need for coal-fired power plants. Anyone who wants to abolish coal-fired electricity without a secure and affordable alternative supply, is just sawing off the branch we are all sitting on. But we should not give up hope. Like the politicians who finally got the mountain of butter mountain and the sea of milk under control with the milk quota, they will also bring the necessary power storage facilities on the way as soon as possible.
Pumped storage facilities for such amounts of electricity are likely to be ruled out due to technical and economic reasons. The same is true with regards to compressed air storage, which has a lower efficiency than pumped storage plants. Battery storage is unaffordable at today’s costs. The only option is to produce hydrogen as an energy storage from surplus electricity.
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notrickszone--2020-11-11--North Atlantic Cycle Change? Northern Europe October Temperature Trends Suggest Autumn Coming Sooner

Today we look at October mean temperatures for the emerald island country of Ireland , the Scandinavian country of Sweden and Finland .
Global warming alarmists claim that the globe is warming , which intuitively would tell us summers should be getting longer , which in turn would mean the start of fall is getting pushed back .
In such a case , September and October temperatures should be warming , but they are not !
First we plot the mean temperature for 7 stations in Ireland for the month of October , for which the Japan Meteorological Agency ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 25 years : Seven of 7 stations in Ireland have seen a strong cooling trend for October since 1995 .
Next we look at the October trends for 6 stations in climate activist Greta Thunberg ’ s home country of Sweden .
Three of 6 stations in Sweden show no warming trend for October .
Greta can begin to calm down and stop worrying herself to death about climate doom .
As is the case for all the charts shown here , we plot the stations for which the Japan Meteorological Agency ( @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 25 years Finally we look at Sweden ’ s Nordic neighbor of Finland .
Here as well there ’ s little indication of a widespread warming .
Three of 6 stations in Finland in fact showed a modest cooling trend for October over the past quarter century .
There ’ s nothing to be alarmed about .

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By Kirye
and Pierre Gosselin
Today we look at October mean temperatures for the emerald island country of Ireland, the Scandinavian country of Sweden and Finland.
Global warming alarmists claim that the globe is warming, which intuitively would tell us summers should be getting longer, which in turn would mean the start of fall is getting pushed back. In such a case, September and October temperatures should be warming, but they are not!
Cooling Ireland
First we plot the mean temperature for 7 stations in Ireland for the month of October, for which the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has sufficient data going back 25 years:
Data source: JMA
Seven of 7 stations in Ireland have seen a strong cooling trend for October since 1995.
Nothing unusual happening in Greta’s Sweden
Next we look at the October trends for 6 stations in climate activist Greta Thunberg’s home country of Sweden.
Data Source: JMA.
Three of 6 stations in Sweden show no warming trend for October. Greta can begin to calm down and stop worrying herself to death about climate doom. As is the case for all the charts shown here, we plot the stations for which the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has sufficient data going back 25 years
Stable climate in Finland
Finally we look at Sweden’s Nordic neighbor of Finland. Here as well there’s little indication of a widespread warming.
Data source: JMA.
Three of 6 stations in Finland in fact showed a modest cooling trend for October over the past quarter century. There’s nothing to be alarmed about.
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notrickszone--2020-11-12--New Study: Western North America Was Much Warmer And Drier With Peak Wildfire Rates When CO2 Was 265

New Study: Western North America Was Much Warmer And Drier With Peak Wildfire Rates When CO2 Was 265ppm

The southwestern US was nearly a desert from about 9000 to 5000 years ago , when Holocene peaks in aridity @ @ @ @ @ wildfire rates occurred .
Arctic sea ice was at its lowest extent of the Holocene @ @ @ @ @ new extensively-referenced study ( Lachniet et al.
, 2020 ) reviewing many dozens of climate @ @ @ @ @ America has determined there is nothing unprecedented or even unusual about the modern climate for @ @ @ @ @ in at about 265 ppm during the Early and Middle Holocene , but today ’ @ @ @ @ @ CO2 climate is much cooler and wetter , and there is much more Arctic sea @ @ @ @ @ the Early to Middle Holocene ( approximately 9 to 5 thousand years ago ) this @ @ @ @ @ this : ·2°C warmer , the warmest of the Holocene · “ complete desiccation ” @ @ @ @ @ areas · “ a warmer Arctic , reduced sea ice extent ” – the lowest @ @ @ @

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The southwestern US was nearly a desert from about 9000 to 5000 years ago, when Holocene peaks in aridity, surface temperature, and wildfire rates occurred. Arctic sea ice was at its lowest extent of the Holocene during these years.
A new extensively-referenced study (Lachniet et al., 2020) reviewing many dozens of climate records from across western North America has determined there is nothing unprecedented or even unusual about the modern climate for this region.
CO2 checked in at about 265 ppm during the Early and Middle Holocene, but today’s associated >400 ppm CO2 climate is much cooler and wetter, and there is much more Arctic sea ice present today.
During the Early to Middle Holocene (approximately 9 to 5 thousand years ago) this region could be characterized like this:
·2°C warmer, the warmest of the Holocene
·150 meters higher tree lines on mountains, indicating greater warmth
·5-17 m lower lake/pond levels
·“complete desiccation” or desert-like conditions in some areas
·peak wildfires
·“a warmer Arctic, reduced sea ice extent” – the lowest extent of the Holocene
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notrickszone--2020-11-13--Study On Hurricanes In Journal ‘Nature’ Plagued By “Massive Error”, Expert Says. Cyclones Not Gettin

Study On Hurricanes In Journal ‘Nature’ Plagued By “Massive Error”, Expert Says. Cyclones Not Getting Worse

First at Twitter , aspiring meteorologist Chris Martz posted a chart of tornado activity since 1954 .
Contrary to what climate alarmists have claimed , tornado frequency has not trended upwards : While on the topic of violent weather , the Washington Post recently published another alarmism-fraught article on the alleged increasing strength of hurricanes due to global warming and how there ’ s now a “ slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world.
” However , Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. responded saying that there was a “ massive error ” in the new Nature paper , which @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Says it shows hurricanes decaying slower over land post-landfall ( more damaging ) .
But they forgot to remove storms that landfall & then go back over the ocean , ” Pielke tweeted .
In the Twitter thread , Dr. Ryan Maue pointed out that some of the hurricanes plotted were not “ a typical example ” of inland hurricane decay .
Examining global landfall cyclone data since 1970 , There ’ s no observed noteworthy trend : Dr. Ryan Maue also tweeted a chart on tropical cyclone activity over the past 50 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more frequent and intense cyclones is not supported by the data .
Another paper by Zhao et al from 2018 in fact shows Western North Pacific cyclones becoming less frequent since the start of the century .
Moreover , data from the Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA ) show that the number of typhoons formed since 1951 has trended somewhat downward : So it ’ s a mystery as to why the Washington Post and Nature would create alarm and make false claims over tropical cyclone activity .
That ’ s science no @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .

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First at Twitter, aspiring meteorologist Chris Martz posted a chart of tornado activity since 1954. Contrary to what climate alarmists have claimed, tornado frequency has not trended upwards:
Hurricane claim involves “massive error”
While on the topic of violent weather, the Washington Post recently published another alarmism-fraught article on the alleged increasing strength of hurricanes due to global warming and how there’s now a “slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world.”
However, Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. responded saying that there was a “massive error” in the new Nature paper, which the Washington Post was citing.
“Says it shows hurricanes decaying slower over land post-landfall (more damaging). But they forgot to remove storms that landfall & then go back over the ocean,” Pielke tweeted.
In the Twitter thread, Dr. Ryan Maue pointed out that some of the hurricanes plotted were not “a typical example” of inland hurricane decay.
No real trend
Examining global landfall cyclone data since 1970, There’s no observed noteworthy trend: Dr. Ryan Maue also tweeted a chart on tropical cyclone activity over the past 50 years:
Declining in some regions
The often heard claim of more frequent and intense cyclones is not supported by the data. Another paper by Zhao et al from 2018 in fact shows Western North Pacific cyclones becoming less frequent since the start of the century.
Moreover, data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) show that the number of typhoons formed since 1951 has trended somewhat downward:
So it’s a mystery as to why the Washington Post and Nature would create alarm and make false claims over tropical cyclone activity. That’s science no one should consider, let alone follow.
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notrickszone--2020-11-14--Cooling Planet: NASA Projects Deep La Niña Event, Peak Temperature Deviation Up To -3°C!

Data from NASA point to a powerful Pacific La Nina event in the works , and so with it could bring a considerable drop in the mean global surface temperature in 2021 .
According to the latest report issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology ( BOM ) , the La Niña conditions continue in the tropical Pacific : “ International climate models suggest it is likely to continue at least through February 2021.
” Central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures ( SSTs ) are at La Niña levels , and remain similar compared to two weeks @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Models continue to suggest some possibility that central and eastern tropical Pacific SSTs could briefly reach levels similar to 2010–12 , with the peak most likely in December 2020 or January 2021.
” The BOM uses the ACCESS–S model for generating its forecasts .
Mean while Snowfan here reports that NASA prognoses are in fact expecting an “ unusually powerful La Niña development , with cooler than normal surface anomalies extending into the summer of 2021 and which could become an extended year-long event , which also occurred in 2010 – 2012 .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ La Niña in the equatorial Pacific with temperature deviations down to below -3°C and with unusually long duration until NH summer 2021 , ” Snowfan writes .
“ If the current NASA forecast is correct , a multi-year La Niña could develop into 2022 , just like in 2010-2012.
” Strong and long La Niña events cool the Earth by several tenths of a degree Celsius with a time lag .
The overall global cooling occurring since 2016 will therefore continue at least until 2021 and could even last until 2022 .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ typically enhance spring rainfall in northern , central and eastern Australia ” and that during a La Niña summer , “ above average rainfall is also typical for much of eastern Australia , but particularly eastern Queensland ” .
But such good news comes with a price : Rainfall means more vegetation growth , which in turn will lead to much more fuel ffor uture bush fires when drought conditions return , as they always inevitably do .

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Data from NASA point to a powerful Pacific La Nina event in the works, and so with it could bring a considerable drop in the mean global surface temperature in 2021.
According to the latest report issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), the La Niña conditions continue in the tropical Pacific: “International climate models suggest it is likely to continue at least through February 2021.”
Peak La Niña conditions expected in January, 2021. Chart source: BOM.
Central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are at La Niña levels, and remain similar compared to two weeks ago, reports the BOM. “Models continue to suggest some possibility that central and eastern tropical Pacific SSTs could briefly reach levels similar to 2010–12, with the peak most likely in December 2020 or January 2021.”
The BOM uses the ACCESS–S model for generating its forecasts.
NASA: temperature deviation to -3°C
Mean while Snowfan here reports that NASA prognoses are in fact expecting an “unusually powerful La Niña development, with cooler than normal surface anomalies extending into the summer of 2021 and which could become an extended year-long event, which also occurred in 2010 – 2012.
Source: BOM NASA/GMAO-ENSO-Prognosen
“November 2020 sees an unusually strong La Niña in the equatorial Pacific with temperature deviations down to below -3°C and with unusually long duration until NH summer 2021,” Snowfan writes. “If the current NASA forecast is correct, a multi-year La Niña could develop into 2022, just like in 2010-2012.”
Strong and long La Niña events cool the Earth by several tenths of a degree Celsius with a time lag. The overall global cooling occurring since 2016 will therefore continue at least until 2021 and could even last until 2022.
Fuel for future bush fires
The BOM notes that La Niña events “typically enhance spring rainfall in northern, central and eastern Australia” and that during a La Niña summer, “above average rainfall is also typical for much of eastern Australia, but particularly eastern Queensland”. But such good news comes with a price: Rainfall means more vegetation growth, which in turn will lead to much more fuel ffor uture bush fires when drought conditions return, as they always inevitably do.
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notrickszone--2020-11-16--2 More Studies Affirm A Glaring Lack Of Correlation Between CO2 And Temperature

Reconstructions of past temperatures show much colder periods with higher CO2 levels or as-warm or warmer periods with much lower CO2 levels .
A new study ( Paus , 2020 ) indicates today ’ s July temperatures center around 7.5 to 8°C in the Scandes Mountains ( Norway ) .
Today ’ s CO2 atmospheric concentration has reached 410 ppm .
During the latter stages of the last ice age ( 19,000 to 17,000 years ago ) , Late Glacial ( LG ) CO2 fluttered near 200 ppm .
But with the discovery of temperature-sensitive tree species in the area @ @ @ @ @ @ @ were also “ at least 7-8°C ” in the Scandes at this time .
Despite more than a doubling of CO2 , there has been no consequent summer temperature increase in this remote location .
In another new study from Eastern Europe , Blagoveshchenskaya ( 2020 ) has determined January temperatures were almost 11°C warmer than the Little Ice Age ( 700 to 300 yrs ago ) and 4°C warmer than today from about 6,000 to 4,500 years ago .
CO2 levels were 270 ppm when this region was 11°C warmer and 275 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ 4°C colder today , at 410 ppm , than it was when CO2 was 270 ppm .
So , once again , reconstructions of Holocene temperatures do not support the narrative that CO2 and temperature changes are correlated .

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Reconstructions of past temperatures show much colder periods with higher CO2 levels or as-warm or warmer periods with much lower CO2 levels.
A new study (Paus, 2020) indicates modern July temperatures center around 7.5 to 8°C in the Scandes Mountains (Norway). Today’s CO2 atmospheric concentration has reached 410 ppm.
During the latter stages of the last ice age (19,000 to 17,000 years ago), Late Glacial (LG) CO2 fluttered near 200 ppm. But with the discovery of temperature-sensitive tree species in the area it can be affirmed that July temperatures were also “at least 7-8°C” in the Scandes at this time. Despite more than a doubling of CO2, there has been no consequent summer temperature increase in this remote location.
In another new study from Eastern Europe, Blagoveshchenskaya (2020) has determined January temperatures were almost 11°C warmer than the Little Ice Age (700 to 300 yrs ago) and 4°C warmer than today from about 6,000 to 4,500 years ago.
CO2 levels were 270 ppm when this region was 11°C warmer and 275 ppm when 11°C colder. It is 4°C colder today, at 410 ppm, than it was when CO2 was 270 ppm.
So, once again, reconstructions of Holocene temperatures do not support the narrative that CO2 and temperature changes are correlated.
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notrickszone--2020-11-15--Uncertain Certainty: Germany’s Potsdam Climate Institute Humiliated After One-Year El Nino Forecast

Uncertain Certainty: Germany’s Potsdam Climate Institute Humiliated After One-Year El Nino Forecast Model Flops

Last year Germany ’ s Potsdam Institute ( PIK ) boasted that it had a superior El Niño one-year forecasting model , claiming 80 % certainty .
Today , a year later , its forecast emerges totally wrong and the prestigious institute is left humiliated .
In 2019 , Germany ’ s Potsdam Climate Institute ( PIK ) boasted that it had a superior El Niño forecasting model , claiming one year in advance and with 80 % certainty , there would be an El Niño event late in 2020 ( upper curve is just an El Niño illustration ) @ @ @ @ @ @ @ totally .
The opposite has in fact emerged .
Chart source : BOM ( with additions ) .
One year ago , together with researchers of the Justus Liebig University Giessen ( JLU ) , and Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan in Israel , Germany ’ s alarmist yet highly regarded Potsdam Institute for Climate Research ( PIK ) boldly declared in a press release there would “ probably be another ‘ El Niño ’ by the end of 2020.
” The PIK November 2019 press release bragged that its team of researchers @ @ @ @ @ @ @ model – which they said was capable of forecasting a late 2020 El Niño event a year in advance : “ The prediction models commonly used do not yet see any signs of this , ” the PIK press release wrote .
The PIK press release then called the early forecasting model approach “ groundbreaking ” , claiming it was based on a “ novel algorithm ” developed by its team .
Their forecast relied “ on a network analysis of air temperatures in the Pacific region and which correctly predicted the last @ @ @ @ @ @ @ than a year in advance.
” The results were even published in a journal : https : //arxiv.org/abs/1910.14642 “ Conventional methods are unable to make a reliable ‘ El Niño ’ forecast more than six months in advance .
With our method , we have roughly doubled the previous warning time , ” stressed JLU physicist Armin Bunde , who initiated the development of the algorithm together with his former PhD student Josef Ludescher .
Prof. Hans-Joachim ( John ) Schellnhuber , Director Emeritus of PIK , explained : “ This clever combination @ @ @ @ @ @ @ unique insights – and we make these available to the people affected.
” He pointed out that , of course , the prediction method did not offer one hundred percent certainty : “ The probability of ‘ El Niño ’ coming in 2020 is around 80 percent .
But that ’ s pretty significant.
” Using data from the past and with the help of of their algorithm , the PIK scientists said El Niño events could then be “ accurately predicted the year before ” .
Today , one year later , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the opposite is in fact occurring , see chart above .
Now the equatorial Pacific is entering a La Niña event instead of the almost certain El Niño claimed earlier by the now embarrassed PIK researchers .
Can ’ t even get one climate component over a single year right The PIK ’ s “ high certainty ” forecast misses totally and so underscores the risks and pitfalls of being overconfident when it comes to still poorly understood complex systems .
And if scientists struggle predicting just one single regional component of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ then imagine what the reliability of their complete climate system predictions going out decades has to be .
GIGO !

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Last year Germany’s Potsdam Institute (PIK) boasted that it had a superior El Niño one-year forecasting model, claiming 80% certainty. Today, a year later, its forecast emerges totally wrong and the prestigious institute is left humiliated.
Hat-tip: Snowfan
In 2019, Germany’s Potsdam Climate Institute (PIK) boasted that it had a superior El Niño forecasting model, claiming one year in advance and with 80% certainty, there would be an El Niño event late in 2020 (upper curve is just an El Niño illustration). But the PIK model forecast flopped totally. The opposite has in fact emerged. Chart source: BOM (with additions).
One year ago, together with researchers of the Justus Liebig University Giessen (JLU), and Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan in Israel, Germany’s alarmist yet highly regarded Potsdam Institute for Climate Research (PIK) boldly declared in a press release there would “probably be another ‘El Niño’ by the end of 2020.”
PIK even boasted forecast model superiority
The PIK November 2019 press release bragged that its team of researchers had developed a new, far better model – which they said was capable of forecasting a late 2020 El Niño event a year in advance: “The prediction models commonly used do not yet see any signs of this,” the PIK press release wrote.
The PIK press release then called the early forecasting model approach “groundbreaking”, claiming it was based on a “novel algorithm” developed by its team. Their forecast relied “on a network analysis of air temperatures in the Pacific region and which correctly predicted the last two ‘El Niño’ events more than a year in advance.”
The results were even published in a journal: https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.14642
“Conventional methods are unable to make a reliable ‘El Niño’ forecast more than six months in advance. With our method, we have roughly doubled the previous warning time,” stressed JLU physicist Armin Bunde, who initiated the development of the algorithm together with his former PhD student Josef Ludescher.
John Schellnhuber: “80% certainty”…”pretty significant”
Prof. Hans-Joachim (John) Schellnhuber, Director Emeritus of PIK, explained: “This clever combination of measured data and mathematics gives us unique insights – and we make these available to the people affected.” He pointed out that, of course, the prediction method did not offer one hundred percent certainty: “The probability of ‘El Niño’ coming in 2020 is around 80 percent. But that’s pretty significant.”
The 20% uncertainty ends up humiliating PIK physicists
Using data from the past and with the help of of their algorithm, the PIK scientists said El Niño events could then be “accurately predicted the year before”.
Today, one year later, in November 2020, we see that the opposite is in fact occurring, see chart above. Now the equatorial Pacific is entering a La Niña event instead of the almost certain El Niño claimed earlier by the now embarrassed PIK researchers.
Can’t even get one climate component over a single year right
The PIK’s “high certainty” forecast misses totally and so underscores the risks and pitfalls of being overconfident when it comes to still poorly understood complex systems.
And if scientists struggle predicting just one single regional component of the entire climate for just one year, then imagine what the reliability of their complete climate system predictions going out decades has to be. GIGO!
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