theatlantic--2020-02-07--The Message Joe Biden Didn’t Want to Hear

Iowa has more counties that flipped from Barack Obama to Trump in the 2016 election than any other state .
In these counties are small cities like this one , where I ’ m from—hilly old towns dotting the Mississippi River that were once booming manufacturing hubs , union strongholds , and , for the most part , faithfully Democratic .
The economies of these river cities in the state ’ s southeast have been slowly contracting for the past few decades .
Younger residents tend to move to large metro areas for work , and many of the people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , and disaffected because of low incomes and limited opportunities , as Dave Swenson , an economics professor at Iowa State University , told me .
The Iowans I spoke with at caucus sites here in Burlington are people whom the former vice president has claimed he can win over .
His message to working-class voters—and Trump supporters—has been one of warmth and solidarity , emphasizing his own middle-class upbringing in Scranton , Pennsylvania , and promising that he will not leave them behind in his quest to set the country back on @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t deserve a president who goes out of his way to make life in America harder , crueler , pettier , ” Biden told a crowd in his hometown last fall .
“ [ Trump ] said he ’ s working for the Forgotten American .
Well , he forgot about the Forgotten American.
” The senator from Vermont , in his campaign , has made a much different case to the same voters : Sanders is hoping to capture their frustration and anger , and channel it into revolutionary political change @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with the plan !
” said Darran Reverend , a 56-year-old union carpenter , who told me that he supports Sanders because of the senator ’ s push for Medicare for All .
“ He could ’ ve beat [ Trump ] in 2016 if they would ’ ve elected him.
” ( Reverend wasn ’ t able to caucus in the previous cycle , because of a felony conviction .
In Iowa , ex-felons can ’ t vote in elections unless they apply directly to the governor to restore their rights , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ “ so tired of the way things are , ” said Sara Mason , a 51-year-old full-time caretaker for her mother .
Sanders is very far left , she added , but instead of scaring off voters in the general election , a Sanders nomination and his ambitious progressive proposals “ might work the other way and get people fired up more.
” And although Buttigieg , with his Harvard education and his fancy fundraisers , may not appear to be the type of candidate who would attract a lot of blue-collar voters @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to see the former mayor of South Bend , Indiana , as a fresh version of Biden .
“ He ’ s young and moderate , ” said Lois Blythe , a Burlington librarian wearing a PETE button .
“ I think he can bring people together.
” Blythe ’ s husband , Ike , seated next to her , told me that in November he ’ ll support “ anybody that can beat that guy that ’ s in there now.
” And his money , right now , is on ( @ @ @ @ @

BURLINGTON, Iowa—It was about to be a very confusing night in the world of American politics, but the 67 caucus-goers of Burlington Precinct 6 were calm and focused. The cafeteria at Grimes Elementary School smelled like lunch, which, according to a whiteboard at the front of the room, had been corn dogs, green beans, salad, and peaches. And the Iowans sitting shoulder to shoulder at tables for their preferred presidential candidate were busy finishing the final count of the evening. Pete Buttigieg’s and Andrew Yang’s tables were full, and 33 people crowded around Bernie Sanders’s.
Joe Biden’s table was empty.
“Biden wants to go back to the way it was before [Donald] Trump, but things weren’t working all that well then, either,” Lonnie Herbert, a 50-year-old forklift driver, told me when I asked why he and his neighbors hadn’t supported the former vice president. Sure, Sanders is a bit radical, he added, but America needs “a hard shift.”
I’d heard an almost identical message from the other Sanders supporters at this school in Burlington’s South Hill, a predominantly working-class part of town. And I’d heard similar criticism from Buttigieg fans, who’d argued that Biden is not the candidate to deliver the party unity they want. This sample size is small. But Biden’s campaign faced similar problems all across Iowa on Monday. Vote totals from the state’s 1,700 precincts, which have trickled in over the past three days, show him in fourth. Places just like this help illustrate why.
Iowa has more counties that flipped from Barack Obama to Trump in the 2016 election than any other state. In these counties are small cities like this one, where I’m from—hilly old towns dotting the Mississippi River that were once booming manufacturing hubs, union strongholds, and, for the most part, faithfully Democratic. The economies of these river cities in the state’s southeast have been slowly contracting for the past few decades. Younger residents tend to move to large metro areas for work, and many of the people who are left are older, whiter, and disaffected because of low incomes and limited opportunities, as Dave Swenson, an economics professor at Iowa State University, told me.
Read: How Biden blew it
The Iowans I spoke with at caucus sites here in Burlington are people whom the former vice president has claimed he can win over. His message to working-class voters—and Trump supporters—has been one of warmth and solidarity, emphasizing his own middle-class upbringing in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and promising that he will not leave them behind in his quest to set the country back on the right track. “We don’t deserve a president who goes out of his way to make life in America harder, crueler, pettier,” Biden told a crowd in his hometown last fall. “[Trump] said he’s working for the Forgotten American. Well, he forgot about the Forgotten American.”
The senator from Vermont, in his campaign, has made a much different case to the same voters: Sanders is hoping to capture their frustration and anger, and channel it into revolutionary political change. “He’s the man with the plan!” said Darran Reverend, a 56-year-old union carpenter, who told me that he supports Sanders because of the senator’s push for Medicare for All. “He could’ve beat [Trump] in 2016 if they would’ve elected him.” (Reverend wasn’t able to caucus in the previous cycle, because of a felony conviction. In Iowa, ex-felons can’t vote in elections unless they apply directly to the governor to restore their rights, as Reverend did.)
People are “so tired of the way things are,” said Sara Mason, a 51-year-old full-time caretaker for her mother. Sanders is very far left, she added, but instead of scaring off voters in the general election, a Sanders nomination and his ambitious progressive proposals “might work the other way and get people fired up more.”
And although Buttigieg, with his Harvard education and his fancy fundraisers, may not appear to be the type of candidate who would attract a lot of blue-collar voters, the Iowans I spoke with seemed to see the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, as a fresh version of Biden. “He’s young and moderate,” said Lois Blythe, a Burlington librarian wearing a PETE button. “I think he can bring people together.” Blythe’s husband, Ike, seated next to her, told me that in November he’ll support “anybody that can beat that guy that’s in there now.” And his money, right now, is on (former) Mayor Pete.
Biden’s success was stymied by Sanders and Buttigieg across Iowa. As MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki has pointed out, Biden captured just one of Iowa’s 31 Obama-Trump counties. At Grimes Elementary, Sanders, Yang, and Buttigieg were the only candidates who had enough support to win a delegate to the county convention. At a small satellite caucus I’d visited earlier in the day in Keokuk, about 40 miles downriver from Burlington, Sanders and Buttigieg had both received enough support to be viable candidates; Biden had not. Statewide, Buttigieg and Sanders are effectively tied for first in the state delegate count; Senator Elizabeth Warren is in third place, with Biden trailing behind. This dismal showing for Biden suggests that his electability argument is much weaker than he—and many other Democrats—had hoped.
Neither Buttigieg nor Sanders, despite their numbers in Iowa, is a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination. Biden holds a lead among black Americans—a group with whom Buttigieg in particular has struggled. The former vice president is double-digits ahead of Sanders and Buttigieg in South Carolina, according to his FiveThirtyEight polling average, and in Nevada, Biden and Sanders are leading the field, with Buttigieg more than 25 points behind.
But for the candidate whose entire campaign pitch has been his ability to win by appealing to a wide range of voters, the results from Iowa come as an especially significant blow. Even the voters at this working-class precinct just blocks from the Mississippi, the voters Biden considers his people, were rooting for somebody else.


theatlantic--2020-02-07--The Atlantic Politics Daily: Where Working-Class Voters Stand

It ’ s Friday , February 7 .
Tonight ’ s Democratic debate at St. Anselm College in Manchester , New Hampshire , will begin at 8 p.m. EST .
In the rest of today ’ s newsletter : Joe Biden ’ s electability argument fell apart in Iowa .
Plus : what the moment of reunion feels like for a military spouse .
The Biden Base that Ghosted Him Politicians from Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump have placed their support for working class Americans front and center while on the campaign trail .
But in 2020 , it ’ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ his working-class support as a key part of his case for why he alone was best-positioned to beat Trump .
On Monday in Iowa , his theory got put to the test .
While the caucus results rolled out in pure chaos , one thing was clear : the voters Biden was counting on went to someone else .
As my colleague Elaine Godfrey , a native Iowan , has reported , the state has more Obama-turned-Trump counties than any other .
Biden prevailed in just one of them .
Here ’ s @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden wants to go back to the way it was before [ Donald ] Trump , but things weren ’ t working all that well then , either , ” Lonnie Herbert , a 50-year-old forklift driver , told me when I asked why he and his neighbors hadn ’ t supported the former vice president .
Sure , Sanders is a bit radical , he added , but America needs “ a hard shift.
” “ Working class ” encompasses far more than the narrow subset of voters that parachuting reporters seek @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for the journalism cliché ) .
And as my colleague Emma Green has pointed out , Trump did win working-class white voters by a large margin—but they didn ’ t necessarily flock to him for economic reasons : The president has had less success with minority working-class voters : Just 7 percent of non-college-educated African Americans voted for him in 2016 , for instance .
Without a lift in those communities , Trump still faces tough reelection prospects .

Joe Biden’s electability argument fell apart in Iowa. Plus: what the moment of reunion feels like for a military spouse.
It’s Friday, February 7. Tonight’s Democratic debate at St. Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire, will begin at 8 p.m. EST.
In the rest of today’s newsletter: Joe Biden’s electability argument fell apart in Iowa. Plus: what the moment of reunion feels like for a military spouse.
*
« TODAY IN POLITICS »
(DANIEL ACKER / BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES)
The Biden Base that Ghosted Him
Politicians from Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump have placed their support for working class Americans front and center while on the campaign trail.
But in 2020, it’s Joe Biden who’s touted his working-class support as a key part of his case for why he alone was best-positioned to beat Trump. On Monday in Iowa, his theory got put to the test. While the caucus results rolled out in pure chaos, one thing was clear: the voters Biden was counting on went to someone else.
As my colleague Elaine Godfrey, a native Iowan, has reported, the state has more Obama-turned-Trump counties than any other. Biden prevailed in just one of them.
Here’s what one person told her:
“Biden wants to go back to the way it was before [Donald] Trump, but things weren’t working all that well then, either,” Lonnie Herbert, a 50-year-old forklift driver, told me when I asked why he and his neighbors hadn’t supported the former vice president. Sure, Sanders is a bit radical, he added, but America needs “a hard shift.”
“Working class” encompasses far more than the narrow subset of voters that parachuting reporters seek out in proverbial Midwestern diners (apologies for the journalism cliché). And as my colleague Emma Green has pointed out, Trump did win working-class white voters by a large margin—but they didn’t necessarily flock to him for economic reasons:
Besides partisan affiliation, it was cultural anxiety—feeling like a stranger in America, supporting the deportation of immigrants, and hesitating about educational investment—that best predicted support for Trump.
The president has had less success with minority working-class voters: Just 7 percent of non-college-educated African Americans voted for him in 2016, for instance. Without a lift in those communities, Trump still faces tough reelection prospects.
Another subset of working-class voters may prove crucial this year: white women. While blue-collar white men remain reliably for Trump, his support among blue-collar women isn’t so robust. These voters could also tilt the final outcome in November.
—Saahil Desai
*
« DEBATE REFRESHER »
(Win McNamee / Getty)
Tonight’s Democratic debate features seven candidates. Here’s where we last left them:
‣ Joe Biden: What happened in Iowa? Biden’s camp seemed not to accept the warning signs.
‣ Pete Buttigieg: “Despite all the attention paid to his candidacy, people still miss how aggressive Buttigieg is,” Edward-Isaac Dovere writes.
‣ Bernie Sanders: Victorious with working-class Iowa, and unfazed by the “bros” supporting his campaign.
‣ Elizabeth Warren: The progressive senator doesn’t talk about her Republican past. Would doing so help her distinguish herself?
‣ Andrew Yang: He did poorly in Iowa. Still, his campaign’s had impact: Yang’s rise to prominence has helped “dampen the conservative drift of Asian Americans.”
*
« WEEKEND READ »
(Stephen Morton / Getty)
What a Reunion Moment Feels Like
She’d hoped for, maybe even envisioned, a big, sweeping reunion at the airport. But at the precise moment of her husband’s return from war, fanfare was the last thing she wanted.
Rebekah Gleaves Sanderlin writes:
A moving moment during Tuesday’s State of the Union address came when a military wife and her two young children were reunited with their soldier, just home from war. The reunion was a surprise for the mother and her children, and for the audience. Members of Congress cheered for three minutes and eight seconds of pure, bipartisan joy. I was happy for the family, of course. But I also felt nervous. I’ve been a military spouse for 17 years. I know reunions very well; they are a tangle of sometimes conflicting emotions. Can I tell you what a military reunion is like for the person at home?
Read the rest.
*


theatlantic--2020-02-07--The 2020 U.S. Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet

Today , Bernie Sanders called a press conference in New Hampshire to declare himself the winner of the Iowa caucus .
Which would be fine—after all , he won the popular vote in the caucus—if not for one complicating factor : Pete Buttigieg had already declared victory in the Iowa caucus , because he is leading in the estimate of delegates won .
Even stranger , this conflict might exist even if the Iowa Democratic Party hadn ’ t proved itself inept at counting the votes .
That ’ s because under new rules this year , the party for @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of numbers from the caucus—allowing different campaigns to claim wins under different metrics .
Meanwhile , the full results of the caucus are still not available , and those that have been reported are dubious at best .
It ’ s clear who the big loser is : the Iowa Democrats , who seem likely to forfeit their vaunted first-contest status over the debacle .
Even without full or accurate results , and despite the contested call , Sanders and Buttigieg really are both winners .
Sanders had hoped to do even better @ @ @ @ @ @ @ uncontested victory and sweep delegates .
That hasn ’ t happened yet , although the votes are still being counted .
But for now , coming out of the caucus having won the popular vote is good enough , especially because the race now heads to New Hampshire and then Nevada , both states in which he is the front-runner .
Most important , he ’ s now the national front-runner for the Democratic nomination , too , a stunning turn for a candidate who just a few years ago was a little-known @ @ @ @ @ @ @ for Buttigieg , he far exceeded expectations , even if his hasty declaration of victory Monday night ends up being premature .
The former South Bend , Indiana , mayor was projected to do well in Iowa , but he has barely made it onto the radar in other states .
He needed a splashy victory to build momentum , and he got it—though the fracas over the results may deprive him of some of the attention he would have otherwise received .
The IDP isn ’ t the only loser .
The @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Biden , who finished even more weakly than expected , at a distant fourth .
He ’ s now facing serious questions about viability and fundraising that are even more embarrassing because of his eminence in the party .
New Hampshire probably won ’ t be great for him , either .
The question is whether he can limp on to South Carolina , where polls still show him leading , for now .
Elizabeth Warren didn ’ t have a great showing in Iowa either , despite a ground operation that was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ edged Biden .
Amy Klobuchar , who some pundits predicted would beat expectations , ended up in fifth .
The less said about Andrew Yang ’ s underwhelming results , the better ; he fired staffers over them today .
None of the other candidates is even worth naming .
These candidates ’ struggles help Sanders and Buttigieg , too .
A stronger Warren finish would have made it harder for Sanders to consolidate left-wing support .
Meanwhile , a Biden collapse , as well as a Klobuchar disappearance , could help Buttigieg @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Sanders .
As the primaries progress , this cheat sheet will be updated regularly .
Who is he ?
The billionaire former mayor of New York , Bloomberg is a Democrat turned Republican turned independent turned Democrat again .
Is he running ?
Yes .
Having ruled out a run in March , hizzoner changed his mind in early November and officially launched his campaign on November 24 .
Why does he want to run ?
For starters , he is convinced that he ’ d be better and more competent at the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ s bid will likely center on his pet issues of gun control , climate change , and fighting the more fiscally liberal wing of the Democratic Party tooth and silver-plated nail .
Who wants him to run ?
What , is his considerable ego not enough ?
Though his tenure as mayor is generally well regarded , it ’ s unclear what Bloomberg ’ s Democratic constituency is beyond other wealthy , socially liberal , and fiscally conservative types , and it ’ s not as if he needs their money to run @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Who even knows anymore ?
His lavish spending has helped Bloomberg gain a toehold in polls , and Joe Biden ’ s Iowa collapse could drive moderates to alternatives like hizzoner .
Who is he ?
Patrick was governor of Massachusetts from 2007 to 2015 , after serving in a top role in Bill Clinton ’ s Justice Department .
More recently , he ’ s worked at Bain Capital .
Is he running ?
Yes .
Patrick officially entered the race on November 14 .
Why does he want to run ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ But having passed on a run earlier , Patrick reconsidered because of worries that no one in the Democratic field has strong momentum and can unite the party .
Who wants him to run ?
There ’ s an appetite for new candidates among some in the Democratic donor class , though there ’ s little sign that voters are so eager .
Patrick is close to Barack Obama , but the former president has stayed out of the primary .
Can he win ?
We ’ re not saying that a former @ @ @ @ @ @ @ t win the presidency , but recent history isn ’ t encouraging .
But take it from Patrick : “ I recognize running for president is a Hail Mary under any circumstances .
This is a Hail Mary from two stadiums over.
” What else do we know ?
Patrick ’ s estranged father played in the alien jazz great Sun Ra ’ s Arkestra .
Who is he ?
A retired California hedge-funder , Steyer has poured his fortune into political advocacy on climate change and flirted with running for office .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ announced on January 9 that he would sit the race out .
Lol jk !
Steyer decided to get back into the race on July 9 after all .
Why does he want to run ?
Impeachment , baby .
Who wants him to run ?
Steyer has managed to gain ground among African American voters in South Carolina .
It ’ s pretty threadbare beyond that .
Can he win the nomination ?
Nope .
Who is he ?
The Coloradan was appointed to the Senate in 2009 and has since won @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Yes .
Bennet announced his campaign on May 2 .
Why does he want to run ?
Like his fellow Rocky Mountain State Democrat John Hickenlooper , Bennet presents himself as someone with experience in business and management who knows how to work with Republicans .
Who wants him to run ?
Probably some of the same people who wanted Hickenlooper to run .
Bennet gained new fans with a viral video of his impassioned rant about Ted Cruz during the January government shutdown .
Can he win ?
No .

Justin Amash took up the Libertarian Party’s standard late in the race. Then he abruptly decided to put it back down again.
When new candidates enter the presidential race, they do so by announcing an “exploratory committee.” That’s pretty much always one of those weird fictions of politics: They’re not exploring anything; they’ve already decided to run.
But Justin Amash has always been different.
Amash, the Republican turned independent congressman from Michigan, announced last month that he was launching an exploratory committee to run for the Libertarian Party nomination for president. Barely two weeks later, on Saturday, Amash announced that he won’t run after all. “After much reflection, I’ve concluded that circumstances don’t lend themselves to my success as a candidate for president this year, and therefore I will not be a candidate,” Amash tweeted.
What a weird sequence! For one thing, third-party candidates in the U.S. practically cannot win. It’s the law—well, it’s a law in political science, named for Maurice Duverger, who formulated it. While Amash insisted that he was in the race to win it, realistic observers understood that though he might affect the political debate or even the outcome of the race, he was not going to be the next president. For another, it’s hard to imagine what Amash learned in the last fortnight about his chances that he couldn’t have considered in mid-April.
Amash’s presumptive entry set off extensive scrutiny about how a third-party candidacy might sway the race: Would he take more votes away from Donald Trump or Joe Biden? Could Amash garner enough votes in his home state, a potentially decisive swing state, to decide the presidency? My colleague Abdallah Fayyad examined these theories in smart detail. Amash’s exit will at least relieve Biden supporters who were terrified that the Libertarian would play spoiler, though it’s not clear how much of a prospect that ever really was.
But Amash’s withdrawal could be a pivotal moment for the Libertarian Party. After years of toiling at 0.5 percent of the popular vote or less, the party has had a breakthrough the past two cycles, both times with former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson atop the ticket. In 2012, the ticket drew 1 percent; in 2016, with widely loathed candidates atop both major-party tickets, Johnson drew 3.3 percent.
The Libertarian vote was almost certainly going to dip in 2020: The stakes of this election are different, the Democratic candidate is different, and the pandemic complicates third-party bids. Still, a high-profile candidate could have drawn on that momentum. Without Amash, the Libertarian Party probably doesn’t have that. The second-highest-profile contender was, uh, Lincoln Chafee, and he dropped out in early April, citing the pandemic. It’s never too late to get back in and turn the Libertarian Party into the vehicle for mandatory metric-system adoption, though.
Should there be new developments in the race going forward, this cheat sheet will be updated.
* * *
The Democrats
(Jeff Roberson / AP)
JOE BIDEN
Who is he?
Don’t play coy. You know the former vice president, senator from Delaware, and recurring Onion character.
Is he running?
Yes. After a long series of hesitations, Biden announced his campaign on April 25, 2019.
Why does he want to run?
Biden has wanted to be president since roughly forever, and he thinks he might be the best bet to win back blue-collar voters and defeat President Trump in 2020. (Trump reportedly agrees.)
Who wants him to run?
Biden’s sell is all about electability, and his dominant win in South Carolina—after a poor showing in the other early states—rallied the Democratic establishment to his side.
Can he win the nomination?
Indeed, he will.
(Yuri Gripas / Reuters)
BERNIE SANDERS
Who is he?
If you didn’t know the Vermont senator and self-described democratic socialist before his runner-up finish in the 2016 Democratic primary, you do now.
Is he running?
No. Sanders became the last Democratic rival to drop out, conceding the nomination to Biden on April 8, 2020.
Why did he want to run?
For the same reasons he wanted to run in 2016, and the same reasons he’s always run for office: Sanders is passionate about redistributing wealth, fighting inequality, and creating a bigger social-safety net.
Who wanted him to run?
Many of the same people who supported him last time, plus a few converts, minus those who are supporting Sanders-adjacent candidates like Elizabeth Warren or Tulsi Gabbard.
Could he have won the nomination?
It sure seemed like it there for a bit, huh? The parlor game of wondering if a few different choices—attacking Joe Biden head-on, for example—might have carried Sanders to victory will continue for months if not years.
(Simon Dawson / Reuters)
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG
Who is he?
The billionaire former mayor of New York, Bloomberg is a Democrat turned Republican turned independent turned Democrat again.
Is he running?
No longer. He ended his bid the day after a disappointing finish on Super Tuesday, having collected only a few dozen delegates.
Why did he want to run?
He was convinced that he’d be better and more competent at the job than anyone else, and he really wanted to light some money on fire. Bloomberg’s bid centered on his pet issues of gun control, climate change, and fighting the more fiscally liberal wing of the Democratic Party tooth and silver-plated nail.
Who wanted him to run?
What, was his considerable ego not enough? Though his tenure as mayor is generally well regarded, it’s unclear what Bloomberg’s Democratic constituency was beyond other wealthy, socially liberal, and fiscally conservative types, and it’s not as if he needed their money to run.
Could he have won the nomination?
Apparently not.
(Matthew Putney / Reuters)
TOM STEYER
Who is he?
A retired California hedge-funder, Steyer has poured his fortune into political advocacy on climate change and flirted with running for office.
Is he running?
Not anymore. He dropped out after finishing third and earning no delegates in South Carolina on February 29, 2020.
Why did he want to run?
Impeachment, baby.
Who wanted him to run?
Steyer managed to gain ground among African American voters in South Carolina. It was pretty threadbare beyond that.
Could he have won the nomination?
Nope.
(Aaron P. Bernstein / REUTERS)
AMY KLOBUCHAR
Who is she?
She has been a senator from Minnesota since 2007.
Is she running?
She did, from February 9, 2019, to March 2, 2020, when she abruptly dropped out on the eve of Super Tuesday and endorsed Biden.
Why did she want to run?
Klobuchar represents a kind of heartland Democrat—progressive, but not aggressively so—and she hoped to have widespread appeal both in the Midwest and elsewhere. She tended to talk vaguely about middle-class issues.
Who wanted her to run?
She built a constituency among mainstream Democrats. Her exchange with Justice Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearing won her a lot of fans.
Could she have won the nomination?
No.
What else do we know?
Sadly, she did not use this fly logo.
(Jonathan Bachman / Reuters)
ELIZABETH WARREN
Who is she?
A senator from Massachusetts since 2013, Warren was previously a professor at Harvard Law School, helped create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and wrote a book on middle-class incomes.
Is she running?
She suspended her campaign on March 5, 2020, two days after amassing just a few dozen delegates on Super Tuesday.
Why did she want to run?
Warren’s campaign was tightly focused on inequality, her signature issue since before entering politics. She proposed an “ultra-millionaire tax” on people worth more than $50 million and a major overhaul of housing policies.
Who wanted her to run?
People who backed Senator Bernie Sanders in 2016; people who were Bernie-curious but worried he was too irascible; people who didn’t like Bernie but are left-curious; Donald Trump.
Could she have won the nomination?
No.
What else do we know?
She’s got a good doggo.
(City of South Bend, IN)
PETE BUTTIGIEG
Who is he?
The 37-year-old openly gay former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and Afghan War veteran went from near-anonymity to buzzy-candidate status in his first couple of months in the race.
Is he running?
Not anymore. He dropped out on March 1, 2020, and later endorsed Biden.
Why did he want to run?
Buttigieg’s sell was all about generation. He’s a Millennial and thinks his cohort faces new and unusual pressures and dilemmas that he is singularly equipped to resolve. Plus, it was a useful way to differentiate himself from the blue-haired bigwigs in the blue party.
Who wants him to run?
Buttigieg had slowly climbed in the polls, grabbing attention for crisp answers and an almost Obamaesque demeanor; he had the support of some Obama alumni. He hoped to reach midwestern voters who deserted the Democrats in 2016.
Could he have won the nomination?
For brief moments along the way, it seemed possible.
What else do we know?
It’s “BOOT-edge-edge,” and it’s Maltese for “lord of the poultry.”
(Marco Garcia / AP)
TULSI GABBARD
Who is she?
Gabbard, 37, has represented Hawaii in the U.S. House since 2013. She previously served in Iraq.
Is she running?
Not anymore. Gabbard dropped out on March 19, 2020, long after it became clear she wouldn’t win.
Why did she want to run?
Gabbard said her central issue is “war and peace,” which basically means a noninterventionist foreign policy.
Who wanted her to run?
Gabbard hoped to draw support from Sanders backers. She supported Bernie in 2016, resigning from a post as vice chair of the Democratic National Committee to do so, and she’s modeled herself largely on him.
Could he have won the nomination?
Naaaaaaah.
What else do we know?
If elected, she would have been the first Hindu president.
Brian Snyder / Reuters
DEVAL PATRICK
Who is he?
Patrick was governor of Massachusetts from 2007 to 2015, after serving in a top role in Bill Clinton’s Justice Department. More recently, he’s worked at Bain Capital.
Is he running?
No. Patrick entered the race on November 14, 2019, but left on February 12, 2020.
Why did he want to run?
To be president, of course. But having passed on a run earlier, Patrick reconsidered because of worries that no one in the Democratic field has strong momentum and can unite the party.
Who wanted him to run?
There was an appetite for new candidates among some in the Democratic donor class, but no sign that voters agreed.
Could he have won the nomination?
We’re not saying that a former Massachusetts governor and Bain employee can’t win the presidency, but recent history wasn’t encouraging. Take it from Patrick: “I recognize running for president is a Hail Mary under any circumstances. This is a Hail Mary from two stadiums over.”
What else do we know?
Patrick’s estranged father played in the alien jazz great Sun Ra’s Arkestra.
(JOSHUA LOTT / AFP / Getty)
ANDREW YANG
Who is he?
Yang is a tech entrepreneur who created the test-preparation company Manhattan Prep and then Venture for America, which tries to incubate start-ups outside New York and the Bay Area, and which is based in New York.
Is he running?
No. He filed to run on November 6, 2017, but dropped out on February 11, 2020.
Why did he want to run?
Yang was a 360-degree sprinkler of policy proposals, but his best-known idea was a $1,000 a month universal basic income for every American adult.
Who wanted him to run?
A motley internet movement, including many fans of Joe Rogan’s podcast.
Could he have won the nomination?
Nope.
(Samantha Sais / Reuters)
MICHAEL BENNET
Who is he?
The Coloradan was appointed to the Senate in 2009 and has since won reelection twice.
Is he running?
No. Bennet announced his campaign on May 2, 2019, but dropped out on February 11, 2020, following the New Hampshire primary.
Why did he want to run?
Bennet presented himself as someone with experience in business and management who knows how to work with Republicans.
Who wanted him to run?
James Carville. Bennet also gained new fans with a viral video of his impassioned rant about Ted Cruz during the January 2019 government shutdown.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
(KC McGinnis / Reuters)
JOHN DELANEY
Who is he?
A former four-term congressman from Maryland, he might be even less known than Pete Buttigieg, who at least has a memorable name.
Is he running?
No. Delaney announced way back in June 2017, hoping that a head start could make up for his lack of name recognition, but dropped out on January 31, 2020.
Why did he want to run?
Delaney, a successful businessman, pitched himself as a centrist problem-solver.
Who wanted him to run?
Unclear. He all but moved to Iowa in hopes of locking up the first caucus state, but didn’t even crack 1 percent in a recent Des Moines Register poll.
Could he have won the nomination?
Nah.
(Joshua Roberts / Reuters)
CORY BOOKER
Who is he?
A senator from New Jersey, he was previously the social-media-savvy mayor of Newark.
Is he running?
No. He launched his campaign on February 1, 2019, but dropped out on January 13, 2020.
Why did he want to run?
Once a leading moderate, Booker has been big on criminal-justice reform, including marijuana liberalization in the Senate. He also embraced progressive ideas, including Medicare for All and some sort of universal nest egg for children.
Who wanted him to run?
Not nearly enough voters. He aimed for Obama-style uplift and inspiration to attract voters, but was edged out by other candidates on both sides.
Could he have won the nomination?
Not this year.
(Amy Harris / Invision / AP)
MARIANNE WILLIAMSON
Who is she?
If you don’t know the inspirational author and speaker, you know her aphorisms (e.g., “Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure.”).
Is she running?
No. She announced her candidacy on January 28, 2019, but left the race on January 10, 2020.
Why did she want to run?
It’s a little tough to say. She wrote on her website, “My campaign for the presidency is dedicated to this search for higher wisdom.” She criticized Hillary Clinton for coziness with corporate interests in 2016, and she ran for the U.S. House in 2014.
Who wanted her to run?
Williamson has a lot of fans, but whether they really wanted her as president was another question.
Could she have won the nomination?
Stranger things have happened, but no.
(DEPartment of Housing & Urban Development)
JULIÁN CASTRO
Who is he?
Castro was the mayor of San Antonio, Texas, before serving as secretary of housing and urban development under Barack Obama from 2014 to 2017.
Is he running?
No. He announced his bid on January 12, 2019, in San Antonio, but dropped out on January 2, 2020, and endorsed Elizabeth Warren four days later.
Why did he want to run?
Castro began the career searching for an Obama-style message, but evolved into a more aggressive, left-wing candidate, especially on immigration and police reform.
Who wanted him to run?
Castro attracted a small but passionate following.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. “I am not a front-runner in this race, but I have not been a front-runner at any time in my life,” Castro said during his announcement.
What else do we know?
Castro’s twin brother, Joaquin, who serves in the U.S. House, once subbed in for his brother in a parade during Julián’s mayoral campaign, so if you go to a campaign event, ask for proof that it’s really him.
(Dimitrios Kambouris)
KAMALA HARRIS
Who is she?
Harris, a first-term senator from California, was elected in 2016. She was previously the state’s attorney general.
Is she running?
No. She declared her candidacy on January 21, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, but ended her campaign on December 3, 2019.
Why did she want to run?
Harris thought that a woman of color who is an ex-prosecutor would check a range of boxes for Democratic voters. She tried to stake out a broad platform, trying to appeal to a wide swath of the party, but ended up without a clear identity.
Who wanted her to run?
Harris briefly became the great hope for Democrats who weren’t strong lefties but worried about Biden. But she was unable to maintain and build her momentum, and she sank from third in the race to the single digits.
Could she have won the nomination?
Perhaps with a different campaign approach Harris would have had good luck—and she’s young enough that she may have another shot. But she didn’t have the right stuff for 2020.
(Matthew Brown / AP)
STEVE BULLOCK
Who is he?
Bullock is the governor of Montana, where he won reelection in 2016 even as Trump won the state.
Is he running?
No. Bullock launched his campaign on May 14 but withdrew on December 2, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
Bullock portrayed himself as a candidate who could win in Trump country and get things done across the aisle. He’s also been an outspoken advocate of campaign-finance reform.
Who wanted him to run?
Unclear. The Great Plains and Mountain West aren’t traditional bases for national Democrats.
Could he have won the nomination?
Nope.
(matt rourke / ap)
JOE SESTAK
Who is he?
A former vice admiral and two-term member of Congress from Pennsylvania, he twice ran for U.S. Senate.
Is he running?
No. He announced on June 23 but bowed out on December 1, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
Sestak’s announcement focused on his long career in the military and the importance of American foreign policy. It was a little evocative of retired General Wesley Clark’s 2004 campaign.
Who wanted him to run?
It’s a mystery. Sestak said he delayed a campaign launch while his daughter was treated for cancer, which is praiseworthy, but there wasn’t even a murmur about him running before his announcement. Sestak is best known these days for losing Senate races in 2010 (in the general election) and 2016 (in the Democratic primary).
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
What else do we know?
This logo, boy, I dunno.
(City of Miramar, FLorida)
WAYNE MESSAM
Who is he?
Many people thought a young black mayor from Florida would run in 2020. They just thought it would be Tallahassee’s Andrew Gillum, not Miramar’s Wayne Messam, who was elected in 2015.
Is he running?
No. Messam announced his candidacy on March 28 but dropped out—having never showed much sign of a campaign—on November 20, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
He had a lot of standard rhetoric about the fading American dream. “The promise of America belongs to all of us,” Messam said in his announcement video. “That’s why I’m going to be running for president. To be your champion.”
Who wanted him to run?
Bueller?
Could he have won?
Sure, Messam won a national championship as a wide receiver for the 1993 Florida State Seminoles. The presidency? Um, no.
(Kathy Willens / AP)
BETO O’ROURKE
Who is he?
The man, the myth, the legend, the former U.S. representative from El Paso and Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas.
Is he running?
No. O’Rourke dropped out on November 1, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
O’Rourke struggled to figure that out. After the August El Paso massacre, he announced a new approach of attacking the Trump presidency head-on.
Who wanted him to run?
A lot of live-stream watchers and thirsty tweeters, a coterie of ex–Obama aides, and a bunch of operatives running the Draft Beto campaign.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. After a fast start, O’Rourke never regained the momentum of his announcement.
What else do we know?
This video is very important.
(Jonathan Bachman / Reuters)
TIM RYAN
Who is he?
The Ohioan is a member of the House, representing Youngstown and America’s greatest city, Akron.
Is he running?
No. Ryan jumped in the race in April 2019 but dropped out on October 24, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
Ryan is a classic Rust Belt Democrat and friend of labor, and he’s concerned about the fate of manufacturing. He is also an outspoken critic of Democratic leadership, mounting a quixotic challenge to Nancy Pelosi in 2016.
Who wanted him to run?
Ryan had some support in the Rust Belt, but never managed to grow his national profile or support.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
What else do we know?
He’s big on meditation.
(Mike Segar / Reuters)
BILL DE BLASIO
Who is he?
The mayor of New York City.
Is he running?
No. He dropped out of the race on September 20, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
De Blasio was the harbinger of the Democratic Party’s leftward shift on economic issues, and they’d be at the center of his campaign, though the movement seems to have left him behind.
Who wanted him to run?
Practically no one. By the time he dropped out, de Blasio was polling at 0 percent even in New York.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
What else do we know?
De Blasio was the tallest candidate since Bill Bradley, in 2000. Both men are 6 foot 5.
(mary Altaffer / AP)
KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND
Who is she?
Gillibrand has been a senator from New York since 2009, replacing Hillary Clinton. Before that, she served in the U.S. House.
Is she running?
No. Gillibrand dropped out of the race on August 28, 2019, after failing to qualify for the third debate. She had launched her campaign officially on March 17.
Why did she want to run?
Gillibrand emphasized women’s issues, ranging from sexual harassment in the military and more recent #MeToo stories to equal pay, and her role as a mom is central in her announcement video. Once a fairly conservative Democrat, she has moved left in recent years.
Who wanted her to run?
Vanishingly few voters. While Gillibrand entered the race as a big name, she struggled to gain the polling or donors needed to stay in debates, much less make a play for the nomination.
Could she have won the nomination?
Nope.
What else do we know?
Just like you, she hated the Game of Thrones finale and is mad online about it.
(Brian Snyder / Reuters)
SETH MOULTON
Who is he?
A third-term congressman from Massachusetts, Moulton graduated from Harvard, then served in the Marines in Iraq.
Is he running?
No. Moulton, who announced his campaign on April 22, 2019, left the race on August 23.
Why did he want to run?
In an interview with BuzzFeed, he said he felt the Democratic Party needs younger leaders and, alluding to his military career, “someone … for whom standing up to a bully like Donald Trump isn’t the biggest challenge he or she has ever faced in life.”
Who wanted him to run?
Almost no one. Moulton never gained much attraction, and some polls found him polling at precisely zero.
Could he have won?
No.
(Mary Schwalm / AP)
JAY INSLEE
Who is he?
Inslee is a second-term governor of Washington, and was previously in the U.S. House.
Is he running?
No. Inslee announced on August 21, 2019, that he was ending his campaign.
Why did he want to run?
Climate change. That’s been Inslee’s big issue as governor, and it will be at the center of his campaign for president, too.
Who wanted him to run?
Inslee generated excitement from climate activists, but never gained enough attention from the broad Democratic electorate to gain traction.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
(Lawrence Bryant / REuters)
STACEY ABRAMS
Who is she?
Abrams ran unsuccessfully for governor of Georgia in 2018 and was previously the Democratic leader in the state House.
Is she running?
No. Abrams will instead focus on advocating against voter suppression, The New York Times reported on August 13, 2019. She’s likely to be mentioned as a running mate for the eventual nominee, too.
Why did she want to run?
Throughout her career, Abrams has focused on bread-and-butter issues such as criminal-justice reform and education, and since losing a 2018 election stained by problems with ballot access, she’s made voting rights a special focus.
Who wanted her to run?
Abrams has drawn excitement from young Democrats, the liberal wing of the party, and African Americans. Her rebuttal to President Trump’s 2019 State of the Union address won her new fans, and the former Obama aide Dan Pfeiffer says she should run.
Could she have won?
No.
(Department of Labor)
JOHN HICKENLOOPER
Who is he?
Hickenlooper was the governor of Colorado until January, and previously held the most Colorado trifecta of jobs imaginable: mayor of Denver, geologist, and brewery owner.
Is he running?
No. Hickenlooper is leaving the race on August 15, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
Hickenlooper branded himself as an effective manager and deal maker who has governed effectively in a purple state while still staying progressive. He said he worried the Democratic field could be too focused on grievance and not enough on policy.
Who wanted him to run?
Not nearly enough people. Hickenlooper was never able to get out of the low single digits in polling, and was at precisely zero in one late poll.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
(Alex Wong / Getty)
MIKE GRAVEL
Who is he?
Gravel, 89, represented Alaska for two terms in the Senate, during which he read the Pentagon Papers into the Congressional Record and fought against the Vietnam War. These days he’s probably better known for his 2008 presidential campaign.
Is he running?
No. After launching on April 8, 2019, his campaign announced it was ending on August 5, and Gravel has endorsed Bernie Sanders.
Why did he want to run?
Gravel was running to bring attention to his pet issues: direct democracy, nuclear nonproliferation, and a noninterventionist foreign policy.
Who wanted him to run?
This is where it gets weird. The committee is the brainchild of three students in college and high school who have basically created a Draft Gravel movement. But Gravel decided he liked the idea and went along with it.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. He initially said he didn’t even want to, though his campaign—worried it might be disqualified for Democratic debates—then said he was running for real. He didn't qualify anyway.
What else do we know?
Gravel produced the greatest presidential spot this side of the “Daisy” ad—and then he remade it this cycle.
(J. Scott Applewhite / AP)
ERIC SWALWELL
Who is he?
Swalwell, who is 38, is a U.S. representative from California’s Bay Area.
Is he running?
No. Swalwell left the race on July 8, 2019, exactly three months after he announced his candidacy on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.
Why did he want to run?
Swalwell was running on a gun-control platform. He also says the Democratic Party needs fresh blood. “We can’t count on the same old leaders to solve the same old problems,” he told The Mercury News. “It’s going to take new energy and new ideas and a new confidence to do that.”
Who wanted him to run?
Not nearly enough people. Swalwell never busted through the 1 percent threshold.
Can he have won the nomination?
Clearly not.
(Phil Long / Reuters)
SHERROD BROWN
Who is he?
By statute, I am required to mention the senator from Ohio’s tousled hair, rumpled appearance, and gravelly voice.
Is he running?
No. Brown told the Youngstown Vindicator on March 7, 2019, that he will not run.
Why did he want to run?
Brown’s campaign would have focused on workers and inequality. He’s somewhat akin to Bernie Sanders, but his progressivism is of the midwestern, organized-labor variety.
Who wanted him to run?
Leftist Democrats who though Sanders is too old and Elizabeth Warren too weak a candidate; lots of dudes in union halls in Northeast Ohio.
Could he have won the nomination?
Possibly.
What else do we know?
Like Warren, Brown has a very good dog.
(Mark Tenally / AP)
TERRY MCAULIFFE
Who is he?
Once known primarily as a close friend of Bill Clinton’s and a Democratic fundraising prodigy, McAuliffe reinvented himself as the governor of Virginia from 2014 to 2018.
Is he running?
No. McAuliffe said April 17, 2019, he wouldn’t compete.
Why did he want to run?
McAuliffe holds up his governorship as proof that he can be a problem solver and deal maker across the aisle, and his Clintonesque politics would have contrasted him with many of the candidates in the field.
Who wanted him to run?
McAuliffe himself concluded he just didn’t have a big enough constituency in the wide Democratic field.
Could he have won the nomination?
Probably not.
(Yuri Gripas / Reuters)
ERIC HOLDER
Who is he?
Holder was the U.S. attorney general from 2009 to 2015, and he’s currently leading a Democratic redistricting initiative with help from some retiree named Barack Obama.
Is he running?
No. After toying with the idea, he wrote in The Washington Post on March 7, 2019, that he would not run.
Why did he want to run?
Holder has three big areas of interest: redistricting, civil rights, and beating Donald Trump by all means necessary.
Who wanted him to run?
Tough to say. Obamaworld isn’t really lining up behind him, and he’s never held elected office, despite a successful Washington career.
Could he have won the nomination?
Probably not.
(Faith Ninivaggi / Reuters)
MITCH LANDRIEU
Who is he?
Landrieu served as the mayor of New Orleans from 2010 to 2018. He was previously Louisiana’s lieutenant governor.
Is he running?
It seems unlikely. “Probably not, but if I change my mind, you’re going to be the first to know,” he told the New York Times editor Dean Baquet in December.
Why did he want to run?
Like the other mayors contemplating a run, Landrieu considers himself a problem-solver. He’s also become a campaigner for racial reconciliation, taking down Confederate monuments in New Orleans, and staking a claim for progressivism in the Deep South.
Who wanted him to run?
Not clear.
Could he have won the nomination?
Probably not.
(Jeenah Moon / Reuters)
ANDREW CUOMO
Who is he?
Cuomo is the governor of New York. He was formerly the secretary of housing and urban development under Bill Clinton.
Is he running?
No. Though he's long toyed with the idea, Cuomo said in November 2018, "I am ruling it out." Then again, his father was indecisive about running for president, too.
Why did he want to run?
One can adopt a Freudian analysis related to his father's unfinished business, or one can note that Cuomo thinks he's got more management experience and success, including working with Republicans, than any Democratic candidate.
Who wanted him to run?
Practically no one. Cuomo's defenders bristle that he doesn't get enough credit, but his work with Republicans has infuriated Empire State Democrats without winning any real GOP friends.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
(Yuri Gripas / Reuters)
ERIC GARCETTI
Who is he?
Garcetti is the mayor of Los Angeles.
Is he running?
No. Garcetti flirted with the idea, visiting South Carolina and naming a hypothetical Cabinet full of mayors, but said on January 29, 2020, that he would not run.
Why did he want to run?
Garcetti’s pitch was that mayors actually get things done and that his lack of experience in Washington was a positive.
Who wanted him to run?
Garcetti was reelected in a landslide in 2017, but he had no apparent national constituency.
Could he have won the nomination?
Doubtful.
(Andrew Harnik / AP)
HILLARY CLINTON
Who is she?
Come on.
Is she running?
No, she announced on March 4, 2019, that she wouldn’t. But until she issues a Shermanesque denial signed in blood—or the filing deadline passes—the rumors probably won’t die.
Why does she want to run?
She doesn’t.
Who wants her to run?
Pundits, mostly.
Can she win the nomination?
See above.
(Mike Blake / Reuters)
MICHAEL AVENATTI
Who is he?
Formerly Stormy Daniels’s lawyer, he’s now facing a dizzying array of federal charges.
Is he running?
Haha, no way. He now says he might once again, but he won’t. And if he does, it won’t matter.
Why did he want to run?
Attention, power, self-aggrandizement
Who wanted him to run?
Some very loud, very devoted fans.
Could he have won the nomination?
No, and his comment to Time that the nominee “better be a white male” was the final straw.
REPUBLICANS
(Leah Millis / Reuters)
DONALD TRUMP
Who is he?
Really?
Fine. Is he running?
Yes. He filed for reelection the day of his inauguration.
Why does he want to run?
Build the wall, Keep America Great, etc.
Who wants him to run?
Consistently about 35 to 40 percent of the country; a small majority consistently says he should not.
Can he win the nomination?
Yes. While his low approval ratings overall have stoked talk of a primary challenge, Trump remains very popular among Republican voters, and as president has broad power to muscle the GOP process to protect himself.
What else do we know?
You may have heard that in December 2019 he became the third president to ever be impeached.
(Stephan Savoia / AP)
WILLIAM WELD
Who is he?
Weld, a former Justice Department official, was the governor of Massachusetts from 1991 to 1997 and was the Libertarian Party’s vice-presidential nominee in 2016.
Is he running?
He dropped out on March 18, 2020, after Trump effectively clinched renomination.
Why did he run?
Calling President Trump “unstable,” Weld has said, “I think our country is in grave peril and I cannot sit any longer quietly on the sidelines.”
Who wanted him to run?
Weld always inspired respect from certain quarters, and the 2016 Libertarian ticket did well by the party’s standards, but Weld’s unorthodox politics and hot-and-cold relationship with the GOP probably didn’t help his support.
Can he win the nomination?
No.
What else do we know?
This logo is so cool.
(Carolyn Kaster / AP)
JOE WALSH
Who is he?
After a strong run in the James Gang, Walsh joined the Eagles as lead guitari—wait, no, wrong guy. This Joe Walsh was a Tea Party congressman from Illinois from 2011 to 2013.
Is he running?
No. Walsh said on August 24, 2019, that he would run against Trump, but dropped out on February 7 after drawing just 1 percent in the Iowa caucus.
Why was he running?
Once a strong Trump backer, Walsh has undergone a strange political transformation over the past three years and now routinely attacks Trump, whom he sees as insufficiently conservative and too deferential to Russia.
Who wanted him to run?
Clearly, not many people. The tireless but hapless Bill Kristol encouraged Walsh to run, but that was about it, based on a February Twitter thread in which he said that he had “that my Republican Party isn’t a Party, it’s a cult.”
Could he have won the nomination?
Absolutely not.
(Kevin Lamarque / Reuters)
MARK SANFORD
Who is he?
Sanford was governor of South Carolina from 2003 to 2011 and a U.S. representative from 1995 to 2001 and 2013 to 2019.
Is he running?
No. Sanford announced his campaign launch on September 8, 2019 but suspended it on November 12.
Why was he running?
Sanford has been an outspoken critic of Donald Trump. “I think we have to have a conversation about what it means to be a Republican,” Sanford said on Fox News Sunday, adding that the GOP “has lost our way.”
Who wanted him to run?
Lots of reporters who are eager to make bad Appalachian Trail jokes. There must have been some Never Trump fiscal conservatives who didn’t want Trump but wouldn’t vote for Weld. Not many, though.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. “I don’t think on the Republican side there’s any appetite for a serious nuanced debate with impeachment in the air,” he said as he left the race.
(Elizabeth Frantz / Reuters)
JOHN KASICH
Who is he?
Kasich recently finished up two terms as governor of Ohio, previously served in the U.S. House, and ran in the 2016 GOP primary.
Is he running?
No, and it seems he won’t. “There is no path right now for me. I don’t see a way to get there,” he said May 30, 2019. “I’ve never gotten involved in a political race where I didn’t think I could win.”
Why did he want to run?
Kasich has long wanted to be president—he ran, quixotically, in 2000. But Kasich has styled himself as a vocal Trump critic, and sees himself as an alternative to the president who is both truer to conservative principles and more reliable and moral.
Who wanted him to run?
Maybe some dead-end Never Trump conservatives. It’s tough to say.
Could he have won the nomination?
Even he doesn’t think so. Kasich previously ruled out an independent or third-party run, but has since reopened that door.
What else do we know?
John Kasich bought a Roots CD and hated it so much, he threw it out his car window. John Kasich hated the Coen brothers’ classic Fargo so much, he tried to get his local Blockbuster to quit renting it. George Will laughed at him. John Kasich is the Bill Brasky of philistinism, but John Kasich probably hated that skit, too.
(Patrick Semansky / AP)
LARRY HOGAN
Who is he?
In November, Hogan became the first Republican to be reelected as governor of Maryland since 1954.
Is he running?
No. After some flirtation, he ruled out a run on June 1, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
Hogan is a pragmatic, moderate Republican who has won widespread acclaim in a solidly Democratic state—in other words, everything Trump is not.
Who wanted him to run?
Never Trump conservatives; whatever the Republican equivalent of a “good government” type is.
Could he have won the nomination?
As long as Trump was running, no.
(Official Senate PhotO)
JEFF FLAKE
Who is he?
The Arizonan, a former U.S. House member, decided not to run for reelection to the Senate in 2019.
Is he running?
No. When he took a contributor role with CBS on January 23, 2019, he said he was not running.
Why did he want to run?
Starting in 2016, Flake was perhaps Trump’s most outspoken critic among elected Republicans, lambasting the president as immoral, unserious, and unconservative.
Who wanted him to run?
Liberal pundits.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. Flake retired because he didn’t even think he could win the Republican Senate nomination.
THIRD PARTIES AND INDEPENDENTS
Public domain
JO JORGENSEN
Who is she?
An activist, a psychologist, and a businesswoman from South Carolina, Jorgensen was the Libertarian Party’s vice-presidential nominee in 1996 and ran for Congress in 1992.
Is he running?
Following Justin Amash’s exit from the race, Jorgensen locked up the Libertarian nomination for 2020.
Why does she want to run?
Jorgensen’s platform is mostly standard Libertarian views: against big federal programs, against mass incarceration, against foreign military operations. She has also said, “It is not enough to be passively not racist; we must be actively anti-racist.”
Who wants her to run?
Libertarians.
What else do we know?
Since she’s the highest-profile woman in the presidential race, Jorgensen has borrowed Hillary Clinton’s 2016 slogan, “I’m with her.” Her running mate, Spike Cohen, previously ran for the LP nod promising a Waffle House on every corner, and if that’s not a winning platform, what has gone wrong in this country?
Getty
HOWIE HAWKINS
Who is he?
A Green Party founder and longtime environmental activist, Hawkins ran for New York governor as a Green in 2010, 2014, and 2018. He did not win.
Is he running?
Yes. On July 11, Hawkins was officially named the Green Party nominee. He’s also the Socialist Party USA nominee.
Why does he want to run?
Hawkins’s platform includes some familiar Green and progressive priorities: Green New Deal, Medicaid for All, and a guaranteed minimum income.
Who wants him to run?
Greens and Socialists.
What else do we know?
“H’20” is a truly great pun, especially for a Green Party nominee.
Lexi Browning / Reuters
DON BLANKENSHIP
Who is he?
The former CEO of the coal company Massey Energy, Blankenship was convicted of conspiracy to violate mine-safety laws over an explosion that killed 29 miners in 2010. He ran for U.S. Senate in West Virginia in 2018.
Is he running?
Yes. Blankenship announced on November 11 that he’s running for the Constitution Party’s nomination, and won the nomination in May.
Why does he want to run?
Blankenship is billing himself as a man who can actually do what Trump promised. The men share many political views as well as a general coarseness and bigotry. “President Trump means well, but he simply cannot get it done because he is too busy mending his self-inflicted wounds and tripping over his ego,” Blankenship said in a statement.
Who wants him to run?
Beats us. For what it’s worth, it took two ballots for him to win the Constitution nod.
(OFFICE OF JUSTIN AMASH)
JUSTIN AMASH
Who is he?
Amash has represented a Grand Rapids, Michigan-area seat in the U.S. House since 2011.
Is he running?
No. On April 28, 2020, Amash announced an exploratory committee to run for president on the Libertarian Party ticket, but he decided against a run on May 16.
Why did he want to run?
Amash has cut a path as a strong libertarian in the House, especially in recent months as a critic of President Trump. On July 4, he announced he was leaving the Republican Party, feeding presidential speculation.
Who wanted him to run?
Libertarians, duh. “There’s a lot of people who consider Amash to be the best congressman from the perspective of a libertarian,” Libertarian Party Chairman Nicholas Sarwark told MLive. “They think he’s the best congressman for our goals since Ron Paul.”
Could he have won the nomination?
Probably.
Gary Cameron / Reuters
LINCOLN CHAFEE
Who is he?
The failson scion of a Rhode Island Republican family, Chafee served in the Senate as a Republican (1999–2007); as governor, as an independent and then a Democrat (2011–15); and then ran for president as a Democrat in 2016.
Is he running?
No. He filed papers to run for the Libertarian Party nomination on January 5, but dropped out on April 7.
Why did he want to run?
It’s time to go metric, baby.
Who wanted him to run?
¯\ _(ツ)_/¯
Could he have won the nomination?
Given that he dropped his bid even without any serious rivals in the race, apparently not.
(JASON REDMOND / Reuters)
HOWARD SCHULTZ
Who is he?
That guy who used to sell you over-roasted coffee. Schultz stepped down as CEO of Starbucks in 2018.
Is he running?
No. Schultz officially ruled out a run on September 6, roughly four months after laying off most of his staff and announcing he’d take the summer off due to health problems. “I have concluded that an independent campaign for the White House is not how I can best serve our country at this time,” he wrote in a message.
Why did he want to run?
Personal pique over Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s support for a 70 percent marginal tax rate. No, seriously. Schultz has offered some vague platitudes about centrist ideas and bringing the country together, but most of it aligns with standard Democratic positions.
Who wanted him to run?
Donald Trump.
Can he have won the nomination?
The great thing about being a billionaire self-funder as an independent is that you don’t have to win a nomination. The downside is that you still have to win votes eventually.
(Darrin Zammit Lupi / Reuters)
JOHN MCAFEE
Who is he?
He’s the guy who made your antivirus program turned international fugitive turned unsuccessful 2016 Libertarian presidential candidate. A typical politician, basically.
Is he running?
He says he’s going to either vie for the Libertarian nomination again or run as an independent, though it’s probably worth regarding what he says with some skepticism.
Why does he want to run?
To promote cryptocurrency, brah. “See, I don’t want to be president,” he told a crypto trade publication in November 2018. “I couldn’t be … no one’s going to elect me president, please God. However, I’ve got the right to run.”
Who wants him to run?
Rubberneckers, disaster enthusiasts.
Can he win the nomination?
“No one’s going to elect me president, please God.”
What else do we know?
You want to see what it’s like as the opposite sex for three hours? What being kissed by God feels like? You want the infinite experience of freedom? Knowledge of yourself? Eroticism that incinerates you? A simple good time? Forgetfulness? He’s your man.


Everybody vs. Pete

Klobuchar was not alone in seeking to take the former small-city mayor down a peg and slow the momentum he ’ s found since Iowa .
An undercurrent of the Democratic primary campaign has been the resentment Buttigieg engenders among progressives , especially those of his generation , who see his bid for the presidency as presumptuous , even privileged .
It ’ s a view that , judging by the attacks on him tonight , his rivals seem to share .
“ Mayor Buttigieg is a great guy , and you ’ re a patriot , ” Biden said @ @ @ @ @ @ @ compliment as a rhetorical wind-up before adding : “ He ’ s the mayor of a small city who has done some good things , but has not demonstrated his ability to—we ’ ll soon find out—to get a broad spectrum of support.
” Later , Biden took offense at Buttigieg ’ s calls to “ turn the page ” on the broken politics of the past .
“ The politics of the past , I think , are not all that bad , ” the former vice president said , touting his @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the legacy of Barack Obama .
Even two candidates who have less governing experience ( none , to be exact ) than Buttigieg , Andrew Yang and Tom Steyer , joined in the chorus against him .
Steyer implied that Buttigieg wasn ’ t tough enough to defeat Trump .
“ We need people with experience , ” he said , without defining what kind of experience he meant .
“ That ’ s why I ’ m worried about Mayor Pete .
You need to go toe-to-toe with this guy and take @ @ @ @ @ @ @ we ’ re going to lose.
” Yang faulted Buttigieg for misreading the causes behind Trump ’ s election .
“ Pete , Pete , fundamentally you are missing the lesson of Donald Trump ’ s victory , ” he said .
“ Donald Trump is not the cause of all of our problems , and we ’ re making a mistake when we act like he is.
” Buttigieg largely deflected the attacks , declining to respond with jabs of his own and sticking to his message instead .
And to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ candidate targeted .
Biden focused as well on Senator Bernie Sanders , criticizing him for not detailing the full cost of his expensive progressive vision and suggesting that his identity as a “ democratic socialist ” would hurt Democrats down the ballot .
But like Biden , and Senators Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren before him , Buttigieg found himself under siege .
Those early front-runners all faltered to some extent .
On the eve of the New Hampshire primary , there ’ s no place Buttigieg would rather be .

Surging in the polls, the young mayor found himself under siege at tonight’s debate from rivals who belittled his relative lack of experience.
Tonight was Pete Buttigieg’s turn to experience the unique treatment a front-runner receives during a presidential-primary debate.
Buttigieg’s Democratic rivals greeted the co-winner of the Iowa caucuses with a pile-on as the race shifted to New Hampshire. Multiple candidates onstage belittled his relative lack of governing experience as the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
“We have a newcomer in the White House, and look where it got us,” Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota said in one of the big early moments of the debate at St. Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire. She suggested that Buttigieg was childish for joking about how President Donald Trump’s “exhausting” impeachment trial made him want to change the channel and “watch cartoons.”
“It is easy to go after Washington, because that's a popular thing to do,” Klobuchar said. “It is much harder to lead and much harder to take those difficult positions.”
Read: Amy Klobuchar has a Pete Buttigieg problem
Stuck in fifth place, Klobuchar has tried—with mixed success—to use the platform of the debates to challenge Buttigieg and former Vice President Joe Biden in the moderate lane of the Democratic primary. A few minutes earlier, she called out Buttigieg for dialing back his support for Medicare for All only after joining the race for president.
Klobuchar was not alone in seeking to take the former small-city mayor down a peg and slow the momentum he’s found since Iowa. An undercurrent of the Democratic primary campaign has been the resentment Buttigieg engenders among progressives, especially those of his generation, who see his bid for the presidency as presumptuous, even privileged. It’s a view that, judging by the attacks on him tonight, his rivals seem to share. “Mayor Buttigieg is a great guy, and you’re a patriot,” Biden said at the outset, using a backhanded compliment as a rhetorical wind-up before adding: “He’s the mayor of a small city who has done some good things, but has not demonstrated his ability to—we’ll soon find out—to get a broad spectrum of support.”
Later, Biden took offense at Buttigieg’s calls to “turn the page” on the broken politics of the past. “The politics of the past, I think, are not all that bad,” the former vice president said, touting his legislative record and accusing Buttigieg of besmirching the legacy of Barack Obama.
Even two candidates who have less governing experience (none, to be exact) than Buttigieg, Andrew Yang and Tom Steyer, joined in the chorus against him. Steyer implied that Buttigieg wasn’t tough enough to defeat Trump. “We need people with experience,” he said, without defining what kind of experience he meant. “That’s why I’m worried about Mayor Pete. You need to go toe-to-toe with this guy and take him down on the debate stage or we’re going to lose.”
Yang faulted Buttigieg for misreading the causes behind Trump’s election. “Pete, Pete, fundamentally you are missing the lesson of Donald Trump’s victory,” he said. “Donald Trump is not the cause of all of our problems, and we’re making a mistake when we act like he is.”
Buttigieg largely deflected the attacks, declining to respond with jabs of his own and sticking to his message instead. And to be sure, he was not the only candidate targeted. Biden focused as well on Senator Bernie Sanders, criticizing him for not detailing the full cost of his expensive progressive vision and suggesting that his identity as a “democratic socialist” would hurt Democrats down the ballot.
But like Biden, and Senators Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren before him, Buttigieg found himself under siege. Those early front-runners all faltered to some extent. On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, there’s no place Buttigieg would rather be.


theatlantic--2020-02-10--Bernie Sanders’s Secret Weapon

Bernie Sanders’s Secret Weapon

To the Sanders campaign , his support among non-Democrats is an argument in favor of his electability : Only he can excite the younger , less politically engaged cohort of people who aren ’ t registered with either party and might otherwise stay home or vote for a third-party contender in November .
But the same dynamic could resurrect old resentments within the Democratic establishment that a candidate who for decades has refused to run on the party ’ s banner in Vermont is poised to capture its presidential nomination .
“ You know , he ’ s not registered @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of my knowledge , ” former Vice President Joe Biden said of Sanders last week .
For years Sanders has resisted entreaties to run as a Democrat in Vermont , though he caucuses with the Democrats as an independent in the Senate .
“ Can he truly build a majority coalition within the party ?
” asked Dante Scala , a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire .
The tension could be magnified should Sanders enter the Milwaukee convention with a plurality , but not a majority , of delegates that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ to vote .
“ I can imagine the response being perhaps , ‘ Well , they weren ’ t real Democrats , ’ ” Scala said .
Read : What if the parties didn ’ t run primaries ?
First , however , Sanders must focus on New Hampshire , where he faces more competition for undeclared voters than he did the last time around , and his advantage is narrower .
Fresh off his near-victory in Iowa , Pete Buttigieg , the former mayor of South Bend , Indiana , is gaining @ @ @ @ @ @ @ made a concerted effort to woo independents and what he calls “ future former Republicans.
” Buttigieg polled even with Sanders among both Democrats and undeclared voters in a survey released Friday morning and overtook him in another poll over the weekend .
Former Vice President Joe Biden is also targeting middle-of-the-road voters and recently touted endorsements from 100 New Hampshire independent .
Yet not all independents are the same : Only about half of them in New Hampshire are truly swing voters , while the rest lean strongly to one side or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a co-founder of The Welcome Party , a center-left group operating in New Hampshire and South Carolina .
The organization ’ s goal is to entice undeclared voters who typically vote only in general elections to participate in the Democratic primary .
“ There are different types of independent voters , and people are speaking in different ways to them , ” Kerr told me .
Buttigieg and Biden are going after the traditional centrists who vote for both Democrats and Republicans depending on the election and who ’ s on the ballot @ @ @ @ @ @ @ more of these voters up for grabs this year .
Undeclared voters can choose to vote in either party primary , and while they split between the ultra-competitive Democratic and Republican contests in 2016 , only the Democratic primary is a real toss-up on Tuesday .

The senator’s strength among non-Democrats could seal his victory in New Hampshire and in many other states that hold open primaries.
If Senator Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic primary in New Hampshire on Tuesday, it’ll likely be thanks to voters who are—like him—not actually Democrats.
The Vermont senator’s lead in several public polls is bolstered by his strong support among independent, or undeclared, voters, who are welcome to participate in New Hampshire’s primary and could make up as much as 40 percent of the electorate.
Beyond New Hampshire, Sanders’s advantage among independent voters could be his secret weapon in the many large, delegate-rich states that allow them to cast ballots in the Democratic primary. Four years ago, he crushed Hillary Clinton among non-Democrats, according to exit polls; in New Hampshire, he won nearly three-quarters of them, which made up the bulk of his 20-point margin of victory.
Generally, candidates care less about who is backing them as long as they’re winning. But the source of Sanders’s strength could both help and hinder his candidacy if the primary turns into a delegate-by-delegate battle heading into the Democratic National Convention in July. The states that hold either partially or fully open primaries include some of the largest in the country—California, Texas, Ohio, Illinois, Virginia, and Massachusetts.
To the Sanders campaign, his support among non-Democrats is an argument in favor of his electability: Only he can excite the younger, less politically engaged cohort of people who aren’t registered with either party and might otherwise stay home or vote for a third-party contender in November. But the same dynamic could resurrect old resentments within the Democratic establishment that a candidate who for decades has refused to run on the party’s banner in Vermont is poised to capture its presidential nomination.
“You know, he’s not registered as a Democrat, to the best of my knowledge,” former Vice President Joe Biden said of Sanders last week. For years Sanders has resisted entreaties to run as a Democrat in Vermont, though he caucuses with the Democrats as an independent in the Senate.
“Can he truly build a majority coalition within the party?” asked Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire. The tension could be magnified should Sanders enter the Milwaukee convention with a plurality, but not a majority, of delegates that hail disproportionately from states that allow non-Democrats to vote. “I can imagine the response being perhaps, ‘Well, they weren’t real Democrats,’” Scala said.
Read: What if the parties didn’t run primaries?
First, however, Sanders must focus on New Hampshire, where he faces more competition for undeclared voters than he did the last time around, and his advantage is narrower. Fresh off his near-victory in Iowa, Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, is gaining in the polls, and he has made a concerted effort to woo independents and what he calls “future former Republicans.” Buttigieg polled even with Sanders among both Democrats and undeclared voters in a survey released Friday morning and overtook him in another poll over the weekend. Former Vice President Joe Biden is also targeting middle-of-the-road voters and recently touted endorsements from 100 New Hampshire independent.
Yet not all independents are the same: Only about half of them in New Hampshire are truly swing voters, while the rest lean strongly to one side or the other, says Liam Kerr, a co-founder of The Welcome Party, a center-left group operating in New Hampshire and South Carolina. The organization’s goal is to entice undeclared voters who typically vote only in general elections to participate in the Democratic primary.
“There are different types of independent voters, and people are speaking in different ways to them,” Kerr told me. Buttigieg and Biden are going after the traditional centrists who vote for both Democrats and Republicans depending on the election and who’s on the ballot. New Hampshire is likely to have more of these voters up for grabs this year. Undeclared voters can choose to vote in either party primary, and while they split between the ultra-competitive Democratic and Republican contests in 2016, only the Democratic primary is a real toss-up on Tuesday.
Sanders’s independent base, on the other hand, is among younger, less engaged people “who maybe are against party structures in general,” Kerr said. He needs them to show up in large numbers, and based on the modest turnout compared to expectations in the Iowa caucuses, Sanders may have cause to worry in New Hampshire. “There’s one thing we know about Sanders: He’s getting fewer votes this time than last time,” Kerr told me. “His share of independents has fallen since 2016.”
Sanders is also relying on the independent vote in the open South Carolina primary on February 29, and he may have some unwanted help. A group of GOP leaders and Tea Party activists have mounted a push for Republicans to vote for Sanders in the Democratic primary, in the hopes of boosting a candidate they view as easier for President Donald Trump to defeat in the fall. While only Democrats and undeclared voters can participate in the New Hampshire primary, the South Carolina contest is open to anyone. (The state Republican party voted to cancel its own primary in deference to Trump.) Republicans could try similar gambits elsewhere. The conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt, for example, said on Meet the Press last month that he would vote for Sanders in the Virginia primary.
Whether those efforts will make any difference is unclear. But Sanders has already demonstrated his strength with voters who have snubbed both parties, and that may prove decisive not only in New Hampshire on Tuesday, but in many states to come.


theatlantic--2020-02-10--The 2020 Democrats All Have the Same Problem

Even beyond Klobuchar ’ s rise , the biggest movement in New Hampshire in the past week has been Biden ’ s decline .
He seems on track for a weak finish that would normally doom a candidate who was the national front-runner .
But Biden will likely get a final chance to revive his campaign in South Carolina , because it ’ s unclear that any of his competitors can significantly dislodge his support among African American voters there .
Read : The opportunity that Warren and Sanders passed up “ I don ’ t think white voters out @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the hearts and minds of southern African American voters , ” says Antjuan Seawright , a Democratic consultant in South Carolina who is unaffiliated in the race and is African American himself .
The voters in each state are like “ vodka and Crown Royal—there ’ s a difference.
” For all the pressures confronting the second-tier candidates , even the new leaders are operating with significant limits to their own support that could ultimately scramble the race .
Whether Buttigieg bests Sanders in the final allocation of Iowa delegates or vice versa @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , the victor will capture a smaller share of the delegates than any winner since the caucus began in 1972 .
Likewise , polls suggest it ’ s possible that whichever candidate takes New Hampshire may not win more than about 30 percent of the vote .
( Jimmy Carter is the only Democratic winner of a New Hampshire primary since 1960 to attract less than 30 percent of the vote there . )
This fractionation marks a departure from the sharp winnowing that ’ s occurred after the first two states in @ @ @ @ @ @ @ who did not first win Iowa or New Hampshire have captured only five states .
And not since 1992 have Democrats seen a race with more than two candidates winning states well into the process .
Adding to the atmosphere of uncertainty is the presence of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg , who is spending unprecedented sums of money in the large states holding their primary in March .
Though he has shown some movement in polls , Bloomberg could face his own hard ceiling , given how many Democrats say @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Republican .
Many theories exist for why Democrats aren ’ t consolidating more quickly around a few candidates .
The most common explanation voters give for their indecision is that they prioritize beating Donald Trump above all else , and they are struggling to determine which candidate truly offers the best chance of doing so .
Another factor is that the ability to raise money from small donors online makes it less likely that candidates will run out of money , which traditionally has been the principal factor forcing contenders to quit .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ earlier races has had the same effect .

ROCHESTER, N.H.—Like last week’s muddled Iowa caucus, tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary may reveal as much about the limits of the leading Democratic candidates as it does their strengths.
The results from Iowa, polls in New Hampshire, and surveys of Democrats beyond those states all point toward the same conclusion: So far, none of the candidates has built a coalition that reaches broadly across the party. Instead, each is confined to a distinct niche of support that is too narrow to establish a commanding advantage in the race. That could guarantee a lengthy war of attrition for the nomination—and possibly even a brokered convention—as the leading contenders divide the Democratic voter base along lines of race, class, generation, and ideology.
“None of them have shown an ability to break out from their narrow lane,” says the Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, a consultant for Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign who is unaffiliated this year. “None of those candidates right now appear to be big enough to break from the pack. We’ve got a long primary season ahead of us.”
For most of the past week, voters in New Hampshire looked poised to simply reconfirm the top two tiers of candidates that emerged from the Iowa results. A flurry of major media surveys uniformly show Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg in the top two positions, trailed by Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota—who finished in that sequence in Iowa. But the final media tracking polls released over the weekend show Klobuchar potentially moving past Warren and Biden, an apparent strong reaction to her performance in Friday night’s debate.
Even beyond Klobuchar’s rise, the biggest movement in New Hampshire in the past week has been Biden’s decline. He seems on track for a weak finish that would normally doom a candidate who was the national front-runner. But Biden will likely get a final chance to revive his campaign in South Carolina, because it’s unclear that any of his competitors can significantly dislodge his support among African American voters there.
Read: The opportunity that Warren and Sanders passed up
“I don’t think white voters out of New Hampshire are going to change the hearts and minds of southern African American voters,” says Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic consultant in South Carolina who is unaffiliated in the race and is African American himself. The voters in each state are like “vodka and Crown Royal—there’s a difference.”
For all the pressures confronting the second-tier candidates, even the new leaders are operating with significant limits to their own support that could ultimately scramble the race. Whether Buttigieg bests Sanders in the final allocation of Iowa delegates or vice versa, as challenges to the results continue, the victor will capture a smaller share of the delegates than any winner since the caucus began in 1972. Likewise, polls suggest it’s possible that whichever candidate takes New Hampshire may not win more than about 30 percent of the vote. (Jimmy Carter is the only Democratic winner of a New Hampshire primary since 1960 to attract less than 30 percent of the vote there.)
This fractionation marks a departure from the sharp winnowing that’s occurred after the first two states in recent decades. Since 2000, candidates who did not first win Iowa or New Hampshire have captured only five states. And not since 1992 have Democrats seen a race with more than two candidates winning states well into the process. Adding to the atmosphere of uncertainty is the presence of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is spending unprecedented sums of money in the large states holding their primary in March. Though he has shown some movement in polls, Bloomberg could face his own hard ceiling, given how many Democrats say they’re skeptical of the former Republican.
Many theories exist for why Democrats aren’t consolidating more quickly around a few candidates. The most common explanation voters give for their indecision is that they prioritize beating Donald Trump above all else, and they are struggling to determine which candidate truly offers the best chance of doing so. Another factor is that the ability to raise money from small donors online makes it less likely that candidates will run out of money, which traditionally has been the principal factor forcing contenders to quit. The increase in media coverage compared with earlier races has had the same effect.
But the most significant factor is that each of the candidates is speaking primarily to just a few segments of the Democratic Party’s coalition—and confronting a wall of resistance from others. “There is not a disruption candidate or a transformational candidate in this race,” Seawright says.
Biden’s limits have been exposed more starkly than others’ so far in the race. In polling through 2019, Biden showed the potential to reassemble the “beer track” coalition—blue-collar and older whites, along with African Americans—that powered the victories of most Democratic nominees in the late 20th century.
But in Iowa, and in polling from other early states, Biden’s coalition resembles an island facing rising water on all sides; he’s being forced to retreat toward an ever-narrowing slice of land. His key problem is how he’s cratering with young voters, even those who are part of the demographic groups with whom he is supposed to be strongest. The Iowa entrance poll, conducted last week by Edison Research for a consortium of news organizations, found Biden drawing just 3 percent of caucus-goers ages 17 to 29 and only 5 percent of those ages 30 to 44.
Even more striking: Non-college-educated white voters are presumed to be a foundational constituency for “middle-class Joe,” yet the entrance poll found him winning just 1 percent of those younger than 45, according to results calculated by CNN’s polling unit. Sanders won an absolute 51 percent majority of those younger working-class white voters. Biden’s problems with younger voters are not confined to Iowa. In New Hampshire, recent surveys have shown him drawing less than 10 percent of voters under age 50.
Perhaps even more ominous for Biden are the results of a poll released last week from South Carolina, Biden’s supposed firewall in the race. While the survey, by East Carolina University, showed him drawing more than three-fifths of African Americans older than 55, it found him winning less than half as many younger African Americans.
In interviews at campaign events in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the conviction that Biden is too old was nearly universal among supporters of the other candidates. “I am concerned about [Biden’s] slightly vacant demeanor,” said Mary Scamlon, a graphic designer who had traveled from Seattle to see Sanders in Rochester. “He frankly doesn’t have a lot of energy left.”
Read: How Biden blew it
Even with the older set, Biden’s base in Iowa receded: The entrance poll showed him carrying most voters ages 65 and older, but falling well behind Buttigieg among adults ages 45 to 64. A recent CNN poll in New Hampshire produced similar results. Biden can’t survive without reclaiming more of those older working-age adults, particularly from Buttigieg. His top advisers consider it more likely that he can claw some of them back than improve significantly on his dismal performance among young people.
Warren and Klobuchar, meanwhile, face variations on a common problem: Neither is cutting deeply enough into any constituency to achieve critical mass in the race.
After working for months to establish her bona fides as a cutting-edge progressive, Warren has shifted to presenting herself as a unity candidate. But she’s finding others ahead of her among all the groups that might compose her most natural base of support. In Iowa, for instance, she not only finished fourth among men but also trailed Buttigieg and Sanders among women. Likewise, the CNN New Hampshire poll found her drawing less than one-third as many liberals as Sanders and trailing all four of the other leading contenders among moderates.
After exhaustive campaigning in Iowa, Klobuchar was competitive there among moderates, voters older than 45, and those with college degrees. The big crowds she drew over the weekend in New Hampshire—and the positive results from the final tracking poll, released last night—showed that she could force herself back into the conversation among centrist primary voters in the states ahead. But that might do more to further splinter that block than to consolidate it.
Even the candidates who have emerged on top in the first states could soon hit a wall. In Iowa, Buttigieg without question amassed the broadest coalition in terms of age, gender, education, and ideology. His showing in New Hampshire surveys looks similarly balanced (though the tracking polls suggest that the tough blows he absorbed at the debate have slowed his momentum here).
But Buttigieg is demonstrating this “diverse” appeal in states defined by their lack of racial diversity. The ex-mayor has posted extraordinarily small numbers among both African American and Latino voters in a wide array of national and state surveys. In the East Carolina University survey released last week, Buttigieg drew support from just one of the 271 likely African American voters surveyed. That’s less than one-half of 1 percent.
Questions about his relations with black residents in South Bend have dogged Buttigieg throughout the campaign, and Seawright is dubious that he can overcome them to create any meaningful beachhead with African Americans in South Carolina or beyond. He’s also skeptical that any of the others can cut too deeply into Biden’s lead with black voters. “The one thing about black people in general is, we are very loyal people,” Seawright says. “I think Biden is going to benefit … from the loyalty of African American voters, especially older African American voters.”
Belcher, who is also African American, isn’t as convinced that black voters will stay with Biden far past this week. While none of the other candidates is particularly well positioned as an alternative, he says, “if Biden is coming in third or fourth in New Hampshire, the African American community is going to look at Biden just like any other voter … and say, ‘I’m not sure that’s a good investment.’”
If Sanders wins New Hampshire, many analysts will likely proclaim him the Democratic front-runner, helped by his prodigious online-fundraising machine, which brought in a breathtaking $25 million in January alone. Yet the evidence is that he’s facing stubborn constraints on his potential support as well.
Read: A nation of pundits
Though Sanders argues at his events that he’s uniquely positioned to generate a historic voter mobilization, total turnout in the Iowa caucus only matched the 2016 level and fell well below the record heights of the 2008 race between Obama and Hillary Clinton. Only about one-third of voters in the entrance poll had not previously attended a caucus, far less than in 2008. These numbers call into question Sanders’s claim that he can fundamentally transform the electorate’s composition.
Equally concerning for Sanders, he won just 7 percent of voters who supported Clinton in 2016, the entrance poll found. His 2020 support was primarily among voters who’d already backed him once. In many respects, his Iowa coalition was formidable: Sanders led among caucus-goers who were young, lacked a college degree, or identified as very liberal. But that coalition wasn’t big enough to win in 2016, and the Iowa results, at least, did not produce evidence that Sanders is expanding beyond it.
Polling in New Hampshire likewise shows Sanders relying on lopsided support among younger and more liberal voters, and lagging with older and more moderate ones. Even facing a much larger field, the 30 percent of the vote he might win here would be only half the 60 percent he attracted in 2016. “He is neither bringing people who are already in the electorate to him nor changing the electorate,” said a senior strategist for one of Sanders’s rivals, who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “So he is hemmed in on both sides.”
Yet the other leading contenders are at least as confined. The big question is whether any of them can reach beyond the constituencies they are now attracting and pull away from the other candidates in the race. Unless someone emerges from the five-car pileup of the early states, Democrats are looking at a nomination contest that will remain undecided through early summer—and possibly into the party’s first multi-ballot contested convention since 1952.