theatlantic--2020-02-11--The 2020 U.S. Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet

The math just didn ’ t work out .
“ MATH ” was , of course , the slogan of Andrew Yang ’ s campaign , but it was also his undoing .
In the end , the Democratic candidate concluded he wasn ’ t viable , and so as numbers rolled in from the New Hampshire primary , he announced he is suspending his campaign .
“ I am a numbers guy , ” Yang told The Washington Post .
“ In most of these states , I ’ m not going to be at a threshold where I @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not necessarily helpful or productive in terms of furthering the goals of this campaign.
” Also dropping out Tuesday was Michael Bennet , the senator from Colorado who never managed to gain much purchase in the race .
Yang ’ s campaign was , despite the modest returns , surprisingly successful .
He was one of the earliest candidates in the race—although not quite as fast to enter as the dearly departed John Delaney , and even less well-known in politics .
His background was in business and as the founder of Venture @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me , didn ’ t give him much of a chance .
In the end , the skeptics were right , but Yang hung around longer , and made more of a splash , than anticipated .
In part that was a testament to an unusual campaign , that foregrounded a single , fairly unusual idea : that the federal government should cut a $ 1,000 check to every American adult every month .
It was also a testament to his ability to gather an unusual coalition .
An appearance on Joe Rogan @ @ @ @ @ @ @ a turning point , drawing a group of supporters—the Yang Gang—that was mostly young and male but not really orthodox Democrats .
Yang managed to come across as at once nerdy and competent but also more of a regular guy than the typical politician .
Yang outlasted the other candidates who initially scanned as novelties and longshots , from Marianne Williamson to Tim Ryan .
He also outlasted many who looked like more traditionally strong contenders—Cory Booker , Steve Bullock , Kamala Harris .
He was able to draw the polling and donations @ @ @ @ @ @ @ debates .
In the end , though he had the same struggle as the rest of these former candidates : He just could n't quite build up enough support to become a genuine contender .
What ’ s less clear is what his mark on the race will be .
He helped popularize UBI , but no other candidate has adopted it .
My colleague Noah Kim recently wrote that Yang may have helped stem the bleeding of Asian American voters away from the Democratic Party .
And Yang ’ s endorsement will @ @ @ @ @ @ @ told my colleague Isaac Dovere he ’ s not going to be bestowing it immediately .
He might even be a contender for a Democratic cabinet .
Bennet was a more standard candidate .
After all , it ’ s hardly unusual for U.S. senators to run for president .
But his run was still a bit of a surprise .
Until a viral moment in January 2019 where he skewered his colleague Ted Cruz , Bennet ’ s reputation was as as an affable , head-down , hard-working senator , but not @ @ @ @ @ @ @ much what the campaign showed , too .
Bennet was quickly knocked off the debate stage when he failed to meet requirements .
He decided to skip serious campaigning in Iowa and go straight to New Hampshire , but a late push from James Carville couldn ’ t save his campaign .
As the primaries progress , this cheat sheet will be updated regularly .
Who is he ?
The billionaire former mayor of New York , Bloomberg is a Democrat turned Republican turned independent turned Democrat again .
Is he running ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ in March , hizzoner changed his mind in early November and officially launched his campaign on November 24 .
Why does he want to run ?
For starters , he is convinced that he ’ d be better and more competent at the job than anyone else .
Bloomberg ’ s bid will likely center on his pet issues of gun control , climate change , and fighting the more fiscally liberal wing of the Democratic Party tooth and silver-plated nail .
Who wants him to run ?
What , is his considerable @ @ @ @ @ @ @ as mayor is generally well regarded , it ’ s unclear what Bloomberg ’ s Democratic constituency is beyond other wealthy , socially liberal , and fiscally conservative types , and it ’ s not as if he needs their money to run .
Can he win the nomination ?
Who even knows anymore ?
His lavish spending has helped Bloomberg gain a toehold in polls , and Joe Biden ’ s Iowa collapse could drive moderates to alternatives like hizzoner .
Who is he ?
Patrick was governor of Massachusetts from 2007 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ top role in Bill Clinton ’ s Justice Department .
More recently , he ’ s worked at Bain Capital .
Is he running ?
Yes .
Patrick officially entered the race on November 14 .
Why does he want to run ?
To be president , of course .
But having passed on a run earlier , Patrick reconsidered because of worries that no one in the Democratic field has strong momentum and can unite the party .
Who wants him to run ?
There ’ s an appetite for new candidates @ @ @ @ @ @ @ , though there ’ s little sign that voters are so eager .
Patrick is close to Barack Obama , but the former president has stayed out of the primary .
Can he win ?
We ’ re not saying that a former Massachusetts governor and Bain employee can ’ t win the presidency , but recent history isn ’ t encouraging .
But take it from Patrick : “ I recognize running for president is a Hail Mary under any circumstances .
This is a Hail Mary from two stadiums over.
” @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s estranged father played in the alien jazz great Sun Ra ’ s Arkestra .
Who is he ?
A retired California hedge-funder , Steyer has poured his fortune into political advocacy on climate change and flirted with running for office .
Is he running ?
No .
He announced on January 9 that he would sit the race out .
Lol jk !
Steyer decided to get back into the race on July 9 after all .
Why does he want to run ?
Impeachment , baby .
Who wants him @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gain ground among African American voters in South Carolina .
It ’ s pretty threadbare beyond that .
Can he win the nomination ?
Nope .

Justin Amash took up the Libertarian Party’s standard late in the race. Then he abruptly decided to put it back down again.
When new candidates enter the presidential race, they do so by announcing an “exploratory committee.” That’s pretty much always one of those weird fictions of politics: They’re not exploring anything; they’ve already decided to run.
But Justin Amash has always been different.
Amash, the Republican turned independent congressman from Michigan, announced last month that he was launching an exploratory committee to run for the Libertarian Party nomination for president. Barely two weeks later, on Saturday, Amash announced that he won’t run after all. “After much reflection, I’ve concluded that circumstances don’t lend themselves to my success as a candidate for president this year, and therefore I will not be a candidate,” Amash tweeted.
What a weird sequence! For one thing, third-party candidates in the U.S. practically cannot win. It’s the law—well, it’s a law in political science, named for Maurice Duverger, who formulated it. While Amash insisted that he was in the race to win it, realistic observers understood that though he might affect the political debate or even the outcome of the race, he was not going to be the next president. For another, it’s hard to imagine what Amash learned in the last fortnight about his chances that he couldn’t have considered in mid-April.
Amash’s presumptive entry set off extensive scrutiny about how a third-party candidacy might sway the race: Would he take more votes away from Donald Trump or Joe Biden? Could Amash garner enough votes in his home state, a potentially decisive swing state, to decide the presidency? My colleague Abdallah Fayyad examined these theories in smart detail. Amash’s exit will at least relieve Biden supporters who were terrified that the Libertarian would play spoiler, though it’s not clear how much of a prospect that ever really was.
But Amash’s withdrawal could be a pivotal moment for the Libertarian Party. After years of toiling at 0.5 percent of the popular vote or less, the party has had a breakthrough the past two cycles, both times with former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson atop the ticket. In 2012, the ticket drew 1 percent; in 2016, with widely loathed candidates atop both major-party tickets, Johnson drew 3.3 percent.
The Libertarian vote was almost certainly going to dip in 2020: The stakes of this election are different, the Democratic candidate is different, and the pandemic complicates third-party bids. Still, a high-profile candidate could have drawn on that momentum. Without Amash, the Libertarian Party probably doesn’t have that. The second-highest-profile contender was, uh, Lincoln Chafee, and he dropped out in early April, citing the pandemic. It’s never too late to get back in and turn the Libertarian Party into the vehicle for mandatory metric-system adoption, though.
Should there be new developments in the race going forward, this cheat sheet will be updated.
* * *
The Democrats
(Jeff Roberson / AP)
JOE BIDEN
Who is he?
Don’t play coy. You know the former vice president, senator from Delaware, and recurring Onion character.
Is he running?
Yes. After a long series of hesitations, Biden announced his campaign on April 25, 2019.
Why does he want to run?
Biden has wanted to be president since roughly forever, and he thinks he might be the best bet to win back blue-collar voters and defeat President Trump in 2020. (Trump reportedly agrees.)
Who wants him to run?
Biden’s sell is all about electability, and his dominant win in South Carolina—after a poor showing in the other early states—rallied the Democratic establishment to his side.
Can he win the nomination?
Indeed, he will.
(Yuri Gripas / Reuters)
BERNIE SANDERS
Who is he?
If you didn’t know the Vermont senator and self-described democratic socialist before his runner-up finish in the 2016 Democratic primary, you do now.
Is he running?
No. Sanders became the last Democratic rival to drop out, conceding the nomination to Biden on April 8, 2020.
Why did he want to run?
For the same reasons he wanted to run in 2016, and the same reasons he’s always run for office: Sanders is passionate about redistributing wealth, fighting inequality, and creating a bigger social-safety net.
Who wanted him to run?
Many of the same people who supported him last time, plus a few converts, minus those who are supporting Sanders-adjacent candidates like Elizabeth Warren or Tulsi Gabbard.
Could he have won the nomination?
It sure seemed like it there for a bit, huh? The parlor game of wondering if a few different choices—attacking Joe Biden head-on, for example—might have carried Sanders to victory will continue for months if not years.
(Simon Dawson / Reuters)
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG
Who is he?
The billionaire former mayor of New York, Bloomberg is a Democrat turned Republican turned independent turned Democrat again.
Is he running?
No longer. He ended his bid the day after a disappointing finish on Super Tuesday, having collected only a few dozen delegates.
Why did he want to run?
He was convinced that he’d be better and more competent at the job than anyone else, and he really wanted to light some money on fire. Bloomberg’s bid centered on his pet issues of gun control, climate change, and fighting the more fiscally liberal wing of the Democratic Party tooth and silver-plated nail.
Who wanted him to run?
What, was his considerable ego not enough? Though his tenure as mayor is generally well regarded, it’s unclear what Bloomberg’s Democratic constituency was beyond other wealthy, socially liberal, and fiscally conservative types, and it’s not as if he needed their money to run.
Could he have won the nomination?
Apparently not.
(Matthew Putney / Reuters)
TOM STEYER
Who is he?
A retired California hedge-funder, Steyer has poured his fortune into political advocacy on climate change and flirted with running for office.
Is he running?
Not anymore. He dropped out after finishing third and earning no delegates in South Carolina on February 29, 2020.
Why did he want to run?
Impeachment, baby.
Who wanted him to run?
Steyer managed to gain ground among African American voters in South Carolina. It was pretty threadbare beyond that.
Could he have won the nomination?
Nope.
(Aaron P. Bernstein / REUTERS)
AMY KLOBUCHAR
Who is she?
She has been a senator from Minnesota since 2007.
Is she running?
She did, from February 9, 2019, to March 2, 2020, when she abruptly dropped out on the eve of Super Tuesday and endorsed Biden.
Why did she want to run?
Klobuchar represents a kind of heartland Democrat—progressive, but not aggressively so—and she hoped to have widespread appeal both in the Midwest and elsewhere. She tended to talk vaguely about middle-class issues.
Who wanted her to run?
She built a constituency among mainstream Democrats. Her exchange with Justice Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearing won her a lot of fans.
Could she have won the nomination?
No.
What else do we know?
Sadly, she did not use this fly logo.
(Jonathan Bachman / Reuters)
ELIZABETH WARREN
Who is she?
A senator from Massachusetts since 2013, Warren was previously a professor at Harvard Law School, helped create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and wrote a book on middle-class incomes.
Is she running?
She suspended her campaign on March 5, 2020, two days after amassing just a few dozen delegates on Super Tuesday.
Why did she want to run?
Warren’s campaign was tightly focused on inequality, her signature issue since before entering politics. She proposed an “ultra-millionaire tax” on people worth more than $50 million and a major overhaul of housing policies.
Who wanted her to run?
People who backed Senator Bernie Sanders in 2016; people who were Bernie-curious but worried he was too irascible; people who didn’t like Bernie but are left-curious; Donald Trump.
Could she have won the nomination?
No.
What else do we know?
She’s got a good doggo.
(City of South Bend, IN)
PETE BUTTIGIEG
Who is he?
The 37-year-old openly gay former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and Afghan War veteran went from near-anonymity to buzzy-candidate status in his first couple of months in the race.
Is he running?
Not anymore. He dropped out on March 1, 2020, and later endorsed Biden.
Why did he want to run?
Buttigieg’s sell was all about generation. He’s a Millennial and thinks his cohort faces new and unusual pressures and dilemmas that he is singularly equipped to resolve. Plus, it was a useful way to differentiate himself from the blue-haired bigwigs in the blue party.
Who wants him to run?
Buttigieg had slowly climbed in the polls, grabbing attention for crisp answers and an almost Obamaesque demeanor; he had the support of some Obama alumni. He hoped to reach midwestern voters who deserted the Democrats in 2016.
Could he have won the nomination?
For brief moments along the way, it seemed possible.
What else do we know?
It’s “BOOT-edge-edge,” and it’s Maltese for “lord of the poultry.”
(Marco Garcia / AP)
TULSI GABBARD
Who is she?
Gabbard, 37, has represented Hawaii in the U.S. House since 2013. She previously served in Iraq.
Is she running?
Not anymore. Gabbard dropped out on March 19, 2020, long after it became clear she wouldn’t win.
Why did she want to run?
Gabbard said her central issue is “war and peace,” which basically means a noninterventionist foreign policy.
Who wanted her to run?
Gabbard hoped to draw support from Sanders backers. She supported Bernie in 2016, resigning from a post as vice chair of the Democratic National Committee to do so, and she’s modeled herself largely on him.
Could he have won the nomination?
Naaaaaaah.
What else do we know?
If elected, she would have been the first Hindu president.
Brian Snyder / Reuters
DEVAL PATRICK
Who is he?
Patrick was governor of Massachusetts from 2007 to 2015, after serving in a top role in Bill Clinton’s Justice Department. More recently, he’s worked at Bain Capital.
Is he running?
No. Patrick entered the race on November 14, 2019, but left on February 12, 2020.
Why did he want to run?
To be president, of course. But having passed on a run earlier, Patrick reconsidered because of worries that no one in the Democratic field has strong momentum and can unite the party.
Who wanted him to run?
There was an appetite for new candidates among some in the Democratic donor class, but no sign that voters agreed.
Could he have won the nomination?
We’re not saying that a former Massachusetts governor and Bain employee can’t win the presidency, but recent history wasn’t encouraging. Take it from Patrick: “I recognize running for president is a Hail Mary under any circumstances. This is a Hail Mary from two stadiums over.”
What else do we know?
Patrick’s estranged father played in the alien jazz great Sun Ra’s Arkestra.
(JOSHUA LOTT / AFP / Getty)
ANDREW YANG
Who is he?
Yang is a tech entrepreneur who created the test-preparation company Manhattan Prep and then Venture for America, which tries to incubate start-ups outside New York and the Bay Area, and which is based in New York.
Is he running?
No. He filed to run on November 6, 2017, but dropped out on February 11, 2020.
Why did he want to run?
Yang was a 360-degree sprinkler of policy proposals, but his best-known idea was a $1,000 a month universal basic income for every American adult.
Who wanted him to run?
A motley internet movement, including many fans of Joe Rogan’s podcast.
Could he have won the nomination?
Nope.
(Samantha Sais / Reuters)
MICHAEL BENNET
Who is he?
The Coloradan was appointed to the Senate in 2009 and has since won reelection twice.
Is he running?
No. Bennet announced his campaign on May 2, 2019, but dropped out on February 11, 2020, following the New Hampshire primary.
Why did he want to run?
Bennet presented himself as someone with experience in business and management who knows how to work with Republicans.
Who wanted him to run?
James Carville. Bennet also gained new fans with a viral video of his impassioned rant about Ted Cruz during the January 2019 government shutdown.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
(KC McGinnis / Reuters)
JOHN DELANEY
Who is he?
A former four-term congressman from Maryland, he might be even less known than Pete Buttigieg, who at least has a memorable name.
Is he running?
No. Delaney announced way back in June 2017, hoping that a head start could make up for his lack of name recognition, but dropped out on January 31, 2020.
Why did he want to run?
Delaney, a successful businessman, pitched himself as a centrist problem-solver.
Who wanted him to run?
Unclear. He all but moved to Iowa in hopes of locking up the first caucus state, but didn’t even crack 1 percent in a recent Des Moines Register poll.
Could he have won the nomination?
Nah.
(Joshua Roberts / Reuters)
CORY BOOKER
Who is he?
A senator from New Jersey, he was previously the social-media-savvy mayor of Newark.
Is he running?
No. He launched his campaign on February 1, 2019, but dropped out on January 13, 2020.
Why did he want to run?
Once a leading moderate, Booker has been big on criminal-justice reform, including marijuana liberalization in the Senate. He also embraced progressive ideas, including Medicare for All and some sort of universal nest egg for children.
Who wanted him to run?
Not nearly enough voters. He aimed for Obama-style uplift and inspiration to attract voters, but was edged out by other candidates on both sides.
Could he have won the nomination?
Not this year.
(Amy Harris / Invision / AP)
MARIANNE WILLIAMSON
Who is she?
If you don’t know the inspirational author and speaker, you know her aphorisms (e.g., “Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure.”).
Is she running?
No. She announced her candidacy on January 28, 2019, but left the race on January 10, 2020.
Why did she want to run?
It’s a little tough to say. She wrote on her website, “My campaign for the presidency is dedicated to this search for higher wisdom.” She criticized Hillary Clinton for coziness with corporate interests in 2016, and she ran for the U.S. House in 2014.
Who wanted her to run?
Williamson has a lot of fans, but whether they really wanted her as president was another question.
Could she have won the nomination?
Stranger things have happened, but no.
(DEPartment of Housing & Urban Development)
JULIÁN CASTRO
Who is he?
Castro was the mayor of San Antonio, Texas, before serving as secretary of housing and urban development under Barack Obama from 2014 to 2017.
Is he running?
No. He announced his bid on January 12, 2019, in San Antonio, but dropped out on January 2, 2020, and endorsed Elizabeth Warren four days later.
Why did he want to run?
Castro began the career searching for an Obama-style message, but evolved into a more aggressive, left-wing candidate, especially on immigration and police reform.
Who wanted him to run?
Castro attracted a small but passionate following.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. “I am not a front-runner in this race, but I have not been a front-runner at any time in my life,” Castro said during his announcement.
What else do we know?
Castro’s twin brother, Joaquin, who serves in the U.S. House, once subbed in for his brother in a parade during Julián’s mayoral campaign, so if you go to a campaign event, ask for proof that it’s really him.
(Dimitrios Kambouris)
KAMALA HARRIS
Who is she?
Harris, a first-term senator from California, was elected in 2016. She was previously the state’s attorney general.
Is she running?
No. She declared her candidacy on January 21, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, but ended her campaign on December 3, 2019.
Why did she want to run?
Harris thought that a woman of color who is an ex-prosecutor would check a range of boxes for Democratic voters. She tried to stake out a broad platform, trying to appeal to a wide swath of the party, but ended up without a clear identity.
Who wanted her to run?
Harris briefly became the great hope for Democrats who weren’t strong lefties but worried about Biden. But she was unable to maintain and build her momentum, and she sank from third in the race to the single digits.
Could she have won the nomination?
Perhaps with a different campaign approach Harris would have had good luck—and she’s young enough that she may have another shot. But she didn’t have the right stuff for 2020.
(Matthew Brown / AP)
STEVE BULLOCK
Who is he?
Bullock is the governor of Montana, where he won reelection in 2016 even as Trump won the state.
Is he running?
No. Bullock launched his campaign on May 14 but withdrew on December 2, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
Bullock portrayed himself as a candidate who could win in Trump country and get things done across the aisle. He’s also been an outspoken advocate of campaign-finance reform.
Who wanted him to run?
Unclear. The Great Plains and Mountain West aren’t traditional bases for national Democrats.
Could he have won the nomination?
Nope.
(matt rourke / ap)
JOE SESTAK
Who is he?
A former vice admiral and two-term member of Congress from Pennsylvania, he twice ran for U.S. Senate.
Is he running?
No. He announced on June 23 but bowed out on December 1, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
Sestak’s announcement focused on his long career in the military and the importance of American foreign policy. It was a little evocative of retired General Wesley Clark’s 2004 campaign.
Who wanted him to run?
It’s a mystery. Sestak said he delayed a campaign launch while his daughter was treated for cancer, which is praiseworthy, but there wasn’t even a murmur about him running before his announcement. Sestak is best known these days for losing Senate races in 2010 (in the general election) and 2016 (in the Democratic primary).
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
What else do we know?
This logo, boy, I dunno.
(City of Miramar, FLorida)
WAYNE MESSAM
Who is he?
Many people thought a young black mayor from Florida would run in 2020. They just thought it would be Tallahassee’s Andrew Gillum, not Miramar’s Wayne Messam, who was elected in 2015.
Is he running?
No. Messam announced his candidacy on March 28 but dropped out—having never showed much sign of a campaign—on November 20, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
He had a lot of standard rhetoric about the fading American dream. “The promise of America belongs to all of us,” Messam said in his announcement video. “That’s why I’m going to be running for president. To be your champion.”
Who wanted him to run?
Bueller?
Could he have won?
Sure, Messam won a national championship as a wide receiver for the 1993 Florida State Seminoles. The presidency? Um, no.
(Kathy Willens / AP)
BETO O’ROURKE
Who is he?
The man, the myth, the legend, the former U.S. representative from El Paso and Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas.
Is he running?
No. O’Rourke dropped out on November 1, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
O’Rourke struggled to figure that out. After the August El Paso massacre, he announced a new approach of attacking the Trump presidency head-on.
Who wanted him to run?
A lot of live-stream watchers and thirsty tweeters, a coterie of ex–Obama aides, and a bunch of operatives running the Draft Beto campaign.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. After a fast start, O’Rourke never regained the momentum of his announcement.
What else do we know?
This video is very important.
(Jonathan Bachman / Reuters)
TIM RYAN
Who is he?
The Ohioan is a member of the House, representing Youngstown and America’s greatest city, Akron.
Is he running?
No. Ryan jumped in the race in April 2019 but dropped out on October 24, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
Ryan is a classic Rust Belt Democrat and friend of labor, and he’s concerned about the fate of manufacturing. He is also an outspoken critic of Democratic leadership, mounting a quixotic challenge to Nancy Pelosi in 2016.
Who wanted him to run?
Ryan had some support in the Rust Belt, but never managed to grow his national profile or support.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
What else do we know?
He’s big on meditation.
(Mike Segar / Reuters)
BILL DE BLASIO
Who is he?
The mayor of New York City.
Is he running?
No. He dropped out of the race on September 20, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
De Blasio was the harbinger of the Democratic Party’s leftward shift on economic issues, and they’d be at the center of his campaign, though the movement seems to have left him behind.
Who wanted him to run?
Practically no one. By the time he dropped out, de Blasio was polling at 0 percent even in New York.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
What else do we know?
De Blasio was the tallest candidate since Bill Bradley, in 2000. Both men are 6 foot 5.
(mary Altaffer / AP)
KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND
Who is she?
Gillibrand has been a senator from New York since 2009, replacing Hillary Clinton. Before that, she served in the U.S. House.
Is she running?
No. Gillibrand dropped out of the race on August 28, 2019, after failing to qualify for the third debate. She had launched her campaign officially on March 17.
Why did she want to run?
Gillibrand emphasized women’s issues, ranging from sexual harassment in the military and more recent #MeToo stories to equal pay, and her role as a mom is central in her announcement video. Once a fairly conservative Democrat, she has moved left in recent years.
Who wanted her to run?
Vanishingly few voters. While Gillibrand entered the race as a big name, she struggled to gain the polling or donors needed to stay in debates, much less make a play for the nomination.
Could she have won the nomination?
Nope.
What else do we know?
Just like you, she hated the Game of Thrones finale and is mad online about it.
(Brian Snyder / Reuters)
SETH MOULTON
Who is he?
A third-term congressman from Massachusetts, Moulton graduated from Harvard, then served in the Marines in Iraq.
Is he running?
No. Moulton, who announced his campaign on April 22, 2019, left the race on August 23.
Why did he want to run?
In an interview with BuzzFeed, he said he felt the Democratic Party needs younger leaders and, alluding to his military career, “someone … for whom standing up to a bully like Donald Trump isn’t the biggest challenge he or she has ever faced in life.”
Who wanted him to run?
Almost no one. Moulton never gained much attraction, and some polls found him polling at precisely zero.
Could he have won?
No.
(Mary Schwalm / AP)
JAY INSLEE
Who is he?
Inslee is a second-term governor of Washington, and was previously in the U.S. House.
Is he running?
No. Inslee announced on August 21, 2019, that he was ending his campaign.
Why did he want to run?
Climate change. That’s been Inslee’s big issue as governor, and it will be at the center of his campaign for president, too.
Who wanted him to run?
Inslee generated excitement from climate activists, but never gained enough attention from the broad Democratic electorate to gain traction.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
(Lawrence Bryant / REuters)
STACEY ABRAMS
Who is she?
Abrams ran unsuccessfully for governor of Georgia in 2018 and was previously the Democratic leader in the state House.
Is she running?
No. Abrams will instead focus on advocating against voter suppression, The New York Times reported on August 13, 2019. She’s likely to be mentioned as a running mate for the eventual nominee, too.
Why did she want to run?
Throughout her career, Abrams has focused on bread-and-butter issues such as criminal-justice reform and education, and since losing a 2018 election stained by problems with ballot access, she’s made voting rights a special focus.
Who wanted her to run?
Abrams has drawn excitement from young Democrats, the liberal wing of the party, and African Americans. Her rebuttal to President Trump’s 2019 State of the Union address won her new fans, and the former Obama aide Dan Pfeiffer says she should run.
Could she have won?
No.
(Department of Labor)
JOHN HICKENLOOPER
Who is he?
Hickenlooper was the governor of Colorado until January, and previously held the most Colorado trifecta of jobs imaginable: mayor of Denver, geologist, and brewery owner.
Is he running?
No. Hickenlooper is leaving the race on August 15, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
Hickenlooper branded himself as an effective manager and deal maker who has governed effectively in a purple state while still staying progressive. He said he worried the Democratic field could be too focused on grievance and not enough on policy.
Who wanted him to run?
Not nearly enough people. Hickenlooper was never able to get out of the low single digits in polling, and was at precisely zero in one late poll.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
(Alex Wong / Getty)
MIKE GRAVEL
Who is he?
Gravel, 89, represented Alaska for two terms in the Senate, during which he read the Pentagon Papers into the Congressional Record and fought against the Vietnam War. These days he’s probably better known for his 2008 presidential campaign.
Is he running?
No. After launching on April 8, 2019, his campaign announced it was ending on August 5, and Gravel has endorsed Bernie Sanders.
Why did he want to run?
Gravel was running to bring attention to his pet issues: direct democracy, nuclear nonproliferation, and a noninterventionist foreign policy.
Who wanted him to run?
This is where it gets weird. The committee is the brainchild of three students in college and high school who have basically created a Draft Gravel movement. But Gravel decided he liked the idea and went along with it.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. He initially said he didn’t even want to, though his campaign—worried it might be disqualified for Democratic debates—then said he was running for real. He didn't qualify anyway.
What else do we know?
Gravel produced the greatest presidential spot this side of the “Daisy” ad—and then he remade it this cycle.
(J. Scott Applewhite / AP)
ERIC SWALWELL
Who is he?
Swalwell, who is 38, is a U.S. representative from California’s Bay Area.
Is he running?
No. Swalwell left the race on July 8, 2019, exactly three months after he announced his candidacy on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.
Why did he want to run?
Swalwell was running on a gun-control platform. He also says the Democratic Party needs fresh blood. “We can’t count on the same old leaders to solve the same old problems,” he told The Mercury News. “It’s going to take new energy and new ideas and a new confidence to do that.”
Who wanted him to run?
Not nearly enough people. Swalwell never busted through the 1 percent threshold.
Can he have won the nomination?
Clearly not.
(Phil Long / Reuters)
SHERROD BROWN
Who is he?
By statute, I am required to mention the senator from Ohio’s tousled hair, rumpled appearance, and gravelly voice.
Is he running?
No. Brown told the Youngstown Vindicator on March 7, 2019, that he will not run.
Why did he want to run?
Brown’s campaign would have focused on workers and inequality. He’s somewhat akin to Bernie Sanders, but his progressivism is of the midwestern, organized-labor variety.
Who wanted him to run?
Leftist Democrats who though Sanders is too old and Elizabeth Warren too weak a candidate; lots of dudes in union halls in Northeast Ohio.
Could he have won the nomination?
Possibly.
What else do we know?
Like Warren, Brown has a very good dog.
(Mark Tenally / AP)
TERRY MCAULIFFE
Who is he?
Once known primarily as a close friend of Bill Clinton’s and a Democratic fundraising prodigy, McAuliffe reinvented himself as the governor of Virginia from 2014 to 2018.
Is he running?
No. McAuliffe said April 17, 2019, he wouldn’t compete.
Why did he want to run?
McAuliffe holds up his governorship as proof that he can be a problem solver and deal maker across the aisle, and his Clintonesque politics would have contrasted him with many of the candidates in the field.
Who wanted him to run?
McAuliffe himself concluded he just didn’t have a big enough constituency in the wide Democratic field.
Could he have won the nomination?
Probably not.
(Yuri Gripas / Reuters)
ERIC HOLDER
Who is he?
Holder was the U.S. attorney general from 2009 to 2015, and he’s currently leading a Democratic redistricting initiative with help from some retiree named Barack Obama.
Is he running?
No. After toying with the idea, he wrote in The Washington Post on March 7, 2019, that he would not run.
Why did he want to run?
Holder has three big areas of interest: redistricting, civil rights, and beating Donald Trump by all means necessary.
Who wanted him to run?
Tough to say. Obamaworld isn’t really lining up behind him, and he’s never held elected office, despite a successful Washington career.
Could he have won the nomination?
Probably not.
(Faith Ninivaggi / Reuters)
MITCH LANDRIEU
Who is he?
Landrieu served as the mayor of New Orleans from 2010 to 2018. He was previously Louisiana’s lieutenant governor.
Is he running?
It seems unlikely. “Probably not, but if I change my mind, you’re going to be the first to know,” he told the New York Times editor Dean Baquet in December.
Why did he want to run?
Like the other mayors contemplating a run, Landrieu considers himself a problem-solver. He’s also become a campaigner for racial reconciliation, taking down Confederate monuments in New Orleans, and staking a claim for progressivism in the Deep South.
Who wanted him to run?
Not clear.
Could he have won the nomination?
Probably not.
(Jeenah Moon / Reuters)
ANDREW CUOMO
Who is he?
Cuomo is the governor of New York. He was formerly the secretary of housing and urban development under Bill Clinton.
Is he running?
No. Though he's long toyed with the idea, Cuomo said in November 2018, "I am ruling it out." Then again, his father was indecisive about running for president, too.
Why did he want to run?
One can adopt a Freudian analysis related to his father's unfinished business, or one can note that Cuomo thinks he's got more management experience and success, including working with Republicans, than any Democratic candidate.
Who wanted him to run?
Practically no one. Cuomo's defenders bristle that he doesn't get enough credit, but his work with Republicans has infuriated Empire State Democrats without winning any real GOP friends.
Could he have won the nomination?
No.
(Yuri Gripas / Reuters)
ERIC GARCETTI
Who is he?
Garcetti is the mayor of Los Angeles.
Is he running?
No. Garcetti flirted with the idea, visiting South Carolina and naming a hypothetical Cabinet full of mayors, but said on January 29, 2020, that he would not run.
Why did he want to run?
Garcetti’s pitch was that mayors actually get things done and that his lack of experience in Washington was a positive.
Who wanted him to run?
Garcetti was reelected in a landslide in 2017, but he had no apparent national constituency.
Could he have won the nomination?
Doubtful.
(Andrew Harnik / AP)
HILLARY CLINTON
Who is she?
Come on.
Is she running?
No, she announced on March 4, 2019, that she wouldn’t. But until she issues a Shermanesque denial signed in blood—or the filing deadline passes—the rumors probably won’t die.
Why does she want to run?
She doesn’t.
Who wants her to run?
Pundits, mostly.
Can she win the nomination?
See above.
(Mike Blake / Reuters)
MICHAEL AVENATTI
Who is he?
Formerly Stormy Daniels’s lawyer, he’s now facing a dizzying array of federal charges.
Is he running?
Haha, no way. He now says he might once again, but he won’t. And if he does, it won’t matter.
Why did he want to run?
Attention, power, self-aggrandizement
Who wanted him to run?
Some very loud, very devoted fans.
Could he have won the nomination?
No, and his comment to Time that the nominee “better be a white male” was the final straw.
REPUBLICANS
(Leah Millis / Reuters)
DONALD TRUMP
Who is he?
Really?
Fine. Is he running?
Yes. He filed for reelection the day of his inauguration.
Why does he want to run?
Build the wall, Keep America Great, etc.
Who wants him to run?
Consistently about 35 to 40 percent of the country; a small majority consistently says he should not.
Can he win the nomination?
Yes. While his low approval ratings overall have stoked talk of a primary challenge, Trump remains very popular among Republican voters, and as president has broad power to muscle the GOP process to protect himself.
What else do we know?
You may have heard that in December 2019 he became the third president to ever be impeached.
(Stephan Savoia / AP)
WILLIAM WELD
Who is he?
Weld, a former Justice Department official, was the governor of Massachusetts from 1991 to 1997 and was the Libertarian Party’s vice-presidential nominee in 2016.
Is he running?
He dropped out on March 18, 2020, after Trump effectively clinched renomination.
Why did he run?
Calling President Trump “unstable,” Weld has said, “I think our country is in grave peril and I cannot sit any longer quietly on the sidelines.”
Who wanted him to run?
Weld always inspired respect from certain quarters, and the 2016 Libertarian ticket did well by the party’s standards, but Weld’s unorthodox politics and hot-and-cold relationship with the GOP probably didn’t help his support.
Can he win the nomination?
No.
What else do we know?
This logo is so cool.
(Carolyn Kaster / AP)
JOE WALSH
Who is he?
After a strong run in the James Gang, Walsh joined the Eagles as lead guitari—wait, no, wrong guy. This Joe Walsh was a Tea Party congressman from Illinois from 2011 to 2013.
Is he running?
No. Walsh said on August 24, 2019, that he would run against Trump, but dropped out on February 7 after drawing just 1 percent in the Iowa caucus.
Why was he running?
Once a strong Trump backer, Walsh has undergone a strange political transformation over the past three years and now routinely attacks Trump, whom he sees as insufficiently conservative and too deferential to Russia.
Who wanted him to run?
Clearly, not many people. The tireless but hapless Bill Kristol encouraged Walsh to run, but that was about it, based on a February Twitter thread in which he said that he had “that my Republican Party isn’t a Party, it’s a cult.”
Could he have won the nomination?
Absolutely not.
(Kevin Lamarque / Reuters)
MARK SANFORD
Who is he?
Sanford was governor of South Carolina from 2003 to 2011 and a U.S. representative from 1995 to 2001 and 2013 to 2019.
Is he running?
No. Sanford announced his campaign launch on September 8, 2019 but suspended it on November 12.
Why was he running?
Sanford has been an outspoken critic of Donald Trump. “I think we have to have a conversation about what it means to be a Republican,” Sanford said on Fox News Sunday, adding that the GOP “has lost our way.”
Who wanted him to run?
Lots of reporters who are eager to make bad Appalachian Trail jokes. There must have been some Never Trump fiscal conservatives who didn’t want Trump but wouldn’t vote for Weld. Not many, though.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. “I don’t think on the Republican side there’s any appetite for a serious nuanced debate with impeachment in the air,” he said as he left the race.
(Elizabeth Frantz / Reuters)
JOHN KASICH
Who is he?
Kasich recently finished up two terms as governor of Ohio, previously served in the U.S. House, and ran in the 2016 GOP primary.
Is he running?
No, and it seems he won’t. “There is no path right now for me. I don’t see a way to get there,” he said May 30, 2019. “I’ve never gotten involved in a political race where I didn’t think I could win.”
Why did he want to run?
Kasich has long wanted to be president—he ran, quixotically, in 2000. But Kasich has styled himself as a vocal Trump critic, and sees himself as an alternative to the president who is both truer to conservative principles and more reliable and moral.
Who wanted him to run?
Maybe some dead-end Never Trump conservatives. It’s tough to say.
Could he have won the nomination?
Even he doesn’t think so. Kasich previously ruled out an independent or third-party run, but has since reopened that door.
What else do we know?
John Kasich bought a Roots CD and hated it so much, he threw it out his car window. John Kasich hated the Coen brothers’ classic Fargo so much, he tried to get his local Blockbuster to quit renting it. George Will laughed at him. John Kasich is the Bill Brasky of philistinism, but John Kasich probably hated that skit, too.
(Patrick Semansky / AP)
LARRY HOGAN
Who is he?
In November, Hogan became the first Republican to be reelected as governor of Maryland since 1954.
Is he running?
No. After some flirtation, he ruled out a run on June 1, 2019.
Why did he want to run?
Hogan is a pragmatic, moderate Republican who has won widespread acclaim in a solidly Democratic state—in other words, everything Trump is not.
Who wanted him to run?
Never Trump conservatives; whatever the Republican equivalent of a “good government” type is.
Could he have won the nomination?
As long as Trump was running, no.
(Official Senate PhotO)
JEFF FLAKE
Who is he?
The Arizonan, a former U.S. House member, decided not to run for reelection to the Senate in 2019.
Is he running?
No. When he took a contributor role with CBS on January 23, 2019, he said he was not running.
Why did he want to run?
Starting in 2016, Flake was perhaps Trump’s most outspoken critic among elected Republicans, lambasting the president as immoral, unserious, and unconservative.
Who wanted him to run?
Liberal pundits.
Could he have won the nomination?
No. Flake retired because he didn’t even think he could win the Republican Senate nomination.
THIRD PARTIES AND INDEPENDENTS
Public domain
JO JORGENSEN
Who is she?
An activist, a psychologist, and a businesswoman from South Carolina, Jorgensen was the Libertarian Party’s vice-presidential nominee in 1996 and ran for Congress in 1992.
Is he running?
Following Justin Amash’s exit from the race, Jorgensen locked up the Libertarian nomination for 2020.
Why does she want to run?
Jorgensen’s platform is mostly standard Libertarian views: against big federal programs, against mass incarceration, against foreign military operations. She has also said, “It is not enough to be passively not racist; we must be actively anti-racist.”
Who wants her to run?
Libertarians.
What else do we know?
Since she’s the highest-profile woman in the presidential race, Jorgensen has borrowed Hillary Clinton’s 2016 slogan, “I’m with her.” Her running mate, Spike Cohen, previously ran for the LP nod promising a Waffle House on every corner, and if that’s not a winning platform, what has gone wrong in this country?
Getty
HOWIE HAWKINS
Who is he?
A Green Party founder and longtime environmental activist, Hawkins ran for New York governor as a Green in 2010, 2014, and 2018. He did not win.
Is he running?
Yes. On July 11, Hawkins was officially named the Green Party nominee. He’s also the Socialist Party USA nominee.
Why does he want to run?
Hawkins’s platform includes some familiar Green and progressive priorities: Green New Deal, Medicaid for All, and a guaranteed minimum income.
Who wants him to run?
Greens and Socialists.
What else do we know?
“H’20” is a truly great pun, especially for a Green Party nominee.
Lexi Browning / Reuters
DON BLANKENSHIP
Who is he?
The former CEO of the coal company Massey Energy, Blankenship was convicted of conspiracy to violate mine-safety laws over an explosion that killed 29 miners in 2010. He ran for U.S. Senate in West Virginia in 2018.
Is he running?
Yes. Blankenship announced on November 11 that he’s running for the Constitution Party’s nomination, and won the nomination in May.
Why does he want to run?
Blankenship is billing himself as a man who can actually do what Trump promised. The men share many political views as well as a general coarseness and bigotry. “President Trump means well, but he simply cannot get it done because he is too busy mending his self-inflicted wounds and tripping over his ego,” Blankenship said in a statement.
Who wants him to run?
Beats us. For what it’s worth, it took two ballots for him to win the Constitution nod.
(OFFICE OF JUSTIN AMASH)
JUSTIN AMASH
Who is he?
Amash has represented a Grand Rapids, Michigan-area seat in the U.S. House since 2011.
Is he running?
No. On April 28, 2020, Amash announced an exploratory committee to run for president on the Libertarian Party ticket, but he decided against a run on May 16.
Why did he want to run?
Amash has cut a path as a strong libertarian in the House, especially in recent months as a critic of President Trump. On July 4, he announced he was leaving the Republican Party, feeding presidential speculation.
Who wanted him to run?
Libertarians, duh. “There’s a lot of people who consider Amash to be the best congressman from the perspective of a libertarian,” Libertarian Party Chairman Nicholas Sarwark told MLive. “They think he’s the best congressman for our goals since Ron Paul.”
Could he have won the nomination?
Probably.
Gary Cameron / Reuters
LINCOLN CHAFEE
Who is he?
The failson scion of a Rhode Island Republican family, Chafee served in the Senate as a Republican (1999–2007); as governor, as an independent and then a Democrat (2011–15); and then ran for president as a Democrat in 2016.
Is he running?
No. He filed papers to run for the Libertarian Party nomination on January 5, but dropped out on April 7.
Why did he want to run?
It’s time to go metric, baby.
Who wanted him to run?
¯\ _(ツ)_/¯
Could he have won the nomination?
Given that he dropped his bid even without any serious rivals in the race, apparently not.
(JASON REDMOND / Reuters)
HOWARD SCHULTZ
Who is he?
That guy who used to sell you over-roasted coffee. Schultz stepped down as CEO of Starbucks in 2018.
Is he running?
No. Schultz officially ruled out a run on September 6, roughly four months after laying off most of his staff and announcing he’d take the summer off due to health problems. “I have concluded that an independent campaign for the White House is not how I can best serve our country at this time,” he wrote in a message.
Why did he want to run?
Personal pique over Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s support for a 70 percent marginal tax rate. No, seriously. Schultz has offered some vague platitudes about centrist ideas and bringing the country together, but most of it aligns with standard Democratic positions.
Who wanted him to run?
Donald Trump.
Can he have won the nomination?
The great thing about being a billionaire self-funder as an independent is that you don’t have to win a nomination. The downside is that you still have to win votes eventually.
(Darrin Zammit Lupi / Reuters)
JOHN MCAFEE
Who is he?
He’s the guy who made your antivirus program turned international fugitive turned unsuccessful 2016 Libertarian presidential candidate. A typical politician, basically.
Is he running?
He says he’s going to either vie for the Libertarian nomination again or run as an independent, though it’s probably worth regarding what he says with some skepticism.
Why does he want to run?
To promote cryptocurrency, brah. “See, I don’t want to be president,” he told a crypto trade publication in November 2018. “I couldn’t be … no one’s going to elect me president, please God. However, I’ve got the right to run.”
Who wants him to run?
Rubberneckers, disaster enthusiasts.
Can he win the nomination?
“No one’s going to elect me president, please God.”
What else do we know?
You want to see what it’s like as the opposite sex for three hours? What being kissed by God feels like? You want the infinite experience of freedom? Knowledge of yourself? Eroticism that incinerates you? A simple good time? Forgetfulness? He’s your man.


theatlantic--2020-02-11--Andrew Yang Is Dropping Out. Here’s Why.

The Sanders campaign more than any other has been griping about Yang for a while , feeling as though he was taking some of their votes .
That ’ s certainly true for some , but so many of the people I met at Yang events around the country told me that they were there for him .
That includes Kim Meade , a 52-year-old realtor from the Hudson Valley who ’ d come up to knock on doors for Yang in the final days and was in Keene on Monday night .
She ’ s a former Republican who @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ t committed to any of the Democrats this year before she watched Yang ’ s interview with the New York Times editorial board a few weeks ago .
“ He is so real and in reality .
He holds good ideas , but he ’ s also a realist , ” Meade told me .
She ’ ll vote for whomever the candidate against Trump is , she said , but she was clearly unhappy about the thought of it not being Yang .
“ I want him to at least get @ @ @ @ @ @ @ hear from him , ” she said .
I started out skeptical of Yang , too .
I first heard of him in 2018 , when one of his aides emailed me a New York Times article about him .
He was a novelty .
A few months later , I received a series of coordinated emails from Yang “ supporters , ” all of whom used almost exactly the same language , urging me to have him on a podcast .
That was annoying .
Then , when I didn ’ t @ @ @ @ @ @ @ campaign coverage of events he ’ d attended , he emailed me himself .
That was grasping .
Even when he made the first debate back in June , he was still a novelty—Marianne Williamson had her not-quite-earthly accent and self-help mush ; Yang had his weird UBI proposal and a bunch of guys who looked as if they were constantly hopped-up on Mountain Dew , and who ’ d scream his name as loudly as they could .
But there was no way to go to his events , see his unique @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not realize that he had something to offer .
Yang is going to hold out on endorsing for a while .
He wants to see his kids , get back in shape , and reflect .
He feels in his gut that he could have won the race if things had gone a little differently , but he ’ s accepted that they haven ’ t .
He hopes the other candidates find success by talking about the economy in the way he did , and by not playing politics as usual .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ a … ‘ conventional ’ presidential candidate , I think we would ’ ve been stuck in the mud a long time ago , ” he told me .
“ I also would have probably jumped out a window at some point too.
” He knows that some of his supporters will likely sit out the election now .
Introducing him at the event last night , former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand urged the crowd to support Yang by saying that with this candidate , they didn ’ t need to settle as @ @ @ @ @ @ @ does not want that to keep them from voting .
“ One of the things that we have to be … is a student of how to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good , ” Yang said .
“ And so if you think you can make a choice that will move us in the right direction , even if it ’ s not what you would have chosen in an ideal world … you have to work with that .
There are going to be many disappointed people @ @ @ @ @ @ @ choose someone who ’ s going to actually help move us in the right direction and start solving some of these problems .
I do not think that person is Donald Trump .
And so if we have a better alternative , we should really try and make sure that person wins .
”

KEENE, N.H.— Even after Donald Trump broke all the rules of politics, there shouldn’t have been room in this presidential race for Andrew Yang. Yet here he was yesterday, just before midnight on the last event of a six-event day, signing MATH hats with a silver marker, long after most of the other candidates were asleep. The event, at Keene State College, didn’t start until after 10:30 p.m. The Yang Gang had waited up for their guy.
They didn't know it was the last time they'd be hearing from him in his capacity as a 2020 candidate.
Before the Iowa caucus last week, Yang and his aides had held out hope that his poll numbers would translate into more votes than they actually did. When they didn’t, and when the votes didn’t seem to be there in New Hampshire either, they decided it was time to leave the race, as he planned to do in a speech tonight.
Yang generated more support, raised more money ($30 million!), and qualified for more debates than many of the senators and governors who dropped out before him—more, even, than some candidates who are still in the race. But that alone doesn’t capture what he achieved. Will his $1,000-a-month universal basic income become law? Probably not, but at this point, it’s about as real as Donald Trump’s border wall or Bernie Sanders’s Medicare for All. At the very least, he changed politics, as Sanders and Trump did. And he sharpened Americans’ sense that something has gone badly wrong with the economy, that American life is getting worse, but no one is doing anything about it except make empty promises that the jobs would come back. The $180 textbooks that college students have to buy are “exhibit No. 178 in how we’re leaving you a mess,” he told the crowd at Keene State.
Yang’s centered his campaign on what he called “humanity”—the idea that politics should recognize the “intrinsic value” of people, and not just their economic value. In an interview last night, he framed his decision to quit the race in these same terms.
“I don’t want to take people’s money and time and support if I genuinely don’t think that we can contend and win,” Yang told me as he dug into his campaign-trail snack of choice—belVita breakfast biscuits. “That also makes this decision seem more natural and correct. I certainly feel like I’m disappointing a lot of people. It’s very, very hard, because a lot of people have invested their hopes and dreams [in] the future of this campaign, and it feels very difficult to put down the sword and shield. But on a personal level, no, it feels like the right thing to do for both the message and the movement.”
Read: What Yang voters really want
Yang’s remaining rivals bought in to his pitch months ago. Elizabeth Warren spoke about automation at the October debate; Joe Biden discussed the fourth industrial revolution on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert. As for Yang’s $1,000-a-month idea? His campaign’s pollsters put together a memo showing that support for the plan in Iowa grew from 17 percent of expected caucus-goers in September to 60 percent in January.
And he managed to do it without winning a single delegate.
The end of Yang 2020 does not mean the end of Yang. At all. He’s already mapping out a future in which he continues to activate his devoted Yang Gang, envisioning big events in cities where his supporters are concentrated. He’s looking at another run for office. He’s not ruling out running for mayor of New York City next year, though that doesn’t seem to be where his heart is. He’d like to run for president again, but he’s definitely interested in something executive. He’s also ready to throw himself into the 2020 campaign through the fall, if the Democratic nominee asks, because he is a committed Democrat.
“If my efforts and exertions can help ensure that Donald Trump doesn’t win, then I’ll be there every freaking moment of every freaking day,” Yang said. “I’ll go fight for it. What are we doing here otherwise? What am I going to do, just watch Trump get reelected? That would be terrible.” And he’d be eager to take the right kind of job in a future administration, “a secretary of technology or even … one of the existing departments,” he said. “You know, I’m not a dick. Like, obviously someone like offers me something serious and impactful but we can help do some good work, I’m not going to be like, ‘Fuck that.’”
Campaigns sensing weakness had already started reaching out, gently wondering about endorsements. More will be in touch now.
Read: The 2020 Democrats all have the same problem
“He very effectively articulated the problem that people are facing in the current economy, and the challenges that they’re going to be facing,” Bernie Sanders’s closest aide, Jeff Weaver, told me this afternoon when I asked him about Yang, before he knew of Yang’s exit from the race. “We’re not exactly on the same page on the solution, but at least he had the courage to not just rely on the same old neoliberal talking points.”
The Sanders campaign more than any other has been griping about Yang for a while, feeling as though he was taking some of their votes. That’s certainly true for some, but so many of the people I met at Yang events around the country told me that they were there for him. That includes Kim Meade, a 52-year-old realtor from the Hudson Valley who’d come up to knock on doors for Yang in the final days and was in Keene on Monday night. She’s a former Republican who voted for Hillary Clinton, but wasn’t committed to any of the Democrats this year before she watched Yang’s interview with the New York Times editorial board a few weeks ago.
“He is so real and in reality. He holds good ideas, but he’s also a realist,” Meade told me. She’ll vote for whomever the candidate against Trump is, she said, but she was clearly unhappy about the thought of it not being Yang. “I want him to at least get through New Hampshire so more people can hear from him,” she said.
I started out skeptical of Yang, too. I first heard of him in 2018, when one of his aides emailed me a New York Times article about him. He was a novelty. A few months later, I received a series of coordinated emails from Yang “supporters,” all of whom used almost exactly the same language, urging me to have him on a podcast. That was annoying. Then, when I didn’t mention Yang in some of my early campaign coverage of events he’d attended, he emailed me himself. That was grasping. Even when he made the first debate back in June, he was still a novelty—Marianne Williamson had her not-quite-earthly accent and self-help mush; Yang had his weird UBI proposal and a bunch of guys who looked as if they were constantly hopped-up on Mountain Dew, and who’d scream his name as loudly as they could.
But there was no way to go to his events, see his unique blend of fatalism and optimism, and not realize that he had something to offer.
Yang is going to hold out on endorsing for a while. He wants to see his kids, get back in shape, and reflect. He feels in his gut that he could have won the race if things had gone a little differently, but he’s accepted that they haven’t. He hopes the other candidates find success by talking about the economy in the way he did, and by not playing politics as usual. “If I tried to act like a … ‘conventional’ presidential candidate, I think we would’ve been stuck in the mud a long time ago,” he told me. “I also would have probably jumped out a window at some point too.”
He knows that some of his supporters will likely sit out the election now. Introducing him at the event last night, former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand urged the crowd to support Yang by saying that with this candidate, they didn’t need to settle as they would with others. But he does not want that to keep them from voting.
“One of the things that we have to be … is a student of how to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good,” Yang said. “And so if you think you can make a choice that will move us in the right direction, even if it’s not what you would have chosen in an ideal world … you have to work with that. There are going to be many disappointed people, but we have to try and choose someone who’s going to actually help move us in the right direction and start solving some of these problems. I do not think that person is Donald Trump. And so if we have a better alternative, we should really try and make sure that person wins.”
His DMs are open.


theatlantic--2020-02-12--Why Bill Weld Is Really Running Against Trump

On Thursday , tucked inside a basement college classroom in Durham , New Hampshire , that could have doubled as a bunker , Weld described the stakes of his campaign .
His expectations were the floor , he told me , leaning back and opening a bag of popcorn .
If he got even a semblance of support , it meant that Republicans—and independents , who are able to vote in the state ’ s primary—were receptive to someone other than Trump .
If Trump ’ s command of the Republican Party is complete , Weld at least hopes to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ beyond the GOP .
“ I ’ ve always been on the libertarian edge of the Republican Party , ” he said .
“ But I certainly don ’ t feel a member of this party as it ’ s represented in Washington , D.C. , right now.
” There should be no illusions as to whether Weld will win the nomination .
( He almost certainly won ’ t . )
The president boasts a 94 percent approval rating among Republicans , according to the latest Gallup poll .
But being an @ @ @ @ @ @ @ ’ s nothing for me to be fearful about , ” Weld said .
Among independents , Trump has a 42 percent approval rating .
Weld believes that he can persuade those independents to stick with him in several of the open primaries—and semi-open primaries , such as New Hampshire ’ s—with what he calls the “ whole truth ” about Trump : that the president is an “ outrageous racist ” who is unqualified for office .
While Pat Buchanan–esque finishes are out of reach—the political pundit won 37 percent of the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ incumbent , George H. W. Bush—an insurgent influence campaign may not be .
Never Trumpism might be more of a capillary than a vein , Weld believes , but it ’ s a vital one .
“ People ask me , you know , ‘ Why are you in this ?
’ ” he said.
“ I mean , my goodness , we ’ re looking at a president who thinks that he doesn ’ t have to listen to anybody and he ’ s unwilling to read anything.
” He added , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ United States.
” Thirty minutes before Weld and I spoke , he was upstairs sitting in an audience , searching for a microphone to offer more of a comment than a question to Deval Patrick , also a former governor of Massachusetts , who was speaking at a forum on higher education .
Weld had called Patrick the day after Patrick announced his run for the presidency to let him know that he admired what he was doing .
Then , together , they lauded another former Massachusetts governor for his vote to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ welcome Governor [ Mitt ] Romney to the good guys ’ club this time , ” Weld joked .
( Patrick dropped out of the race this morning after failing to gain traction in Iowa and New Hampshire . )
I asked Weld what it would mean if he ’ s actually able to sway some Republican voters .
“ It means that there is an appetite for an alternative to Trump , ” he said .
Then , I asked , what if he ’ s not successful ?
Well , he @ @ @ @ @ @ @ not willing “ to listen to someone who ’ s pointing out that Emperor Trump doesn ’ t have a nice new fancy set of clothes on .
”

President Donald Trump strolled to a dominating victory in New Hampshire last night. “Wouldn’t a big story be that I got more New Hampshire Primary Votes than any incumbent president, in either party, in the history of that Great State,” he tweeted. “Not an insignificant fact!”
On a night when Bernie Sanders became the clear Democratic front-runner and Amy Klobuchar found a new wave of momentum, Trump wanted his preeminence in the Republican Party to be known. Commanding more than 85 percent of the vote, Trump spun it as an unqualified victory. It was nearly identical to the share of the vote that Ronald Reagan carried as the incumbent in 1984, and Trump won a higher percentage of the vote than Barack Obama, both George Bushes, and Bill Clinton did in their reelection primaries.*
But from his watch party in Manchester last night, facing the Merrimack River, former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld, who received 9 percent of the vote in the state’s Republican primary, was still holding on to hope. “Longtime Trump advisor Steve Bannon said that if Donald Trump loses 3% of the traditional Republican vote, he won’t be re-elected,” he said in a written statement. “I guess he won’t be re-elected.”
On Thursday, tucked inside a basement college classroom in Durham, New Hampshire, that could have doubled as a bunker, Weld described the stakes of his campaign. His expectations were the floor, he told me, leaning back and opening a bag of popcorn. If he got even a semblance of support, it meant that Republicans—and independents, who are able to vote in the state’s primary—were receptive to someone other than Trump. If Trump’s command of the Republican Party is complete, Weld at least hopes to be the firewall preventing Trumpism from spreading beyond the GOP.
Read: Breakfast with Bill Weld
“I’ve always been on the libertarian edge of the Republican Party,” he said. “But I certainly don’t feel a member of this party as it’s represented in Washington, D.C., right now.” There should be no illusions as to whether Weld will win the nomination. (He almost certainly won’t.) The president boasts a 94 percent approval rating among Republicans, according to the latest Gallup poll. But being an underdog has its benefits. “There’s nothing for me to be fearful about,” Weld said.
Among independents, Trump has a 42 percent approval rating. Weld believes that he can persuade those independents to stick with him in several of the open primaries—and semi-open primaries, such as New Hampshire’s—with what he calls the “whole truth” about Trump: that the president is an “outrageous racist” who is unqualified for office. While Pat Buchanan–esque finishes are out of reach—the political pundit won 37 percent of the New Hampshire–primary vote in 1992 against the incumbent, George H. W. Bush—an insurgent influence campaign may not be.
Never Trumpism might be more of a capillary than a vein, Weld believes, but it’s a vital one. “People ask me, you know, ‘Why are you in this?’” he said.“I mean, my goodness, we’re looking at a president who thinks that he doesn’t have to listen to anybody and he’s unwilling to read anything.” He added, “That’s dangerous for the United States.”
Thirty minutes before Weld and I spoke, he was upstairs sitting in an audience, searching for a microphone to offer more of a comment than a question to Deval Patrick, also a former governor of Massachusetts, who was speaking at a forum on higher education. Weld had called Patrick the day after Patrick announced his run for the presidency to let him know that he admired what he was doing. Then, together, they lauded another former Massachusetts governor for his vote to impeach the president. “We can welcome Governor [Mitt] Romney to the good guys’ club this time,” Weld joked. (Patrick dropped out of the race this morning after failing to gain traction in Iowa and New Hampshire.)
I asked Weld what it would mean if he’s actually able to sway some Republican voters. “It means that there is an appetite for an alternative to Trump,” he said. Then, I asked, what if he’s not successful? Well, he said, it means that Republicans are not willing “to listen to someone who’s pointing out that Emperor Trump doesn’t have a nice new fancy set of clothes on.”


theatlantic--2020-02-12--The 2020 U.S. Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet

The math just didn ’ t work out .
“ MATH ” was , of course , the slogan of Andrew Yang ’ s campaign , but it was also his undoing .
In the end , the Democratic candidate concluded that he wasn ’ t viable , and so as numbers rolled in from the New Hampshire primary , he announced that he was suspending his campaign .
“ I am a numbers guy , ” Yang told The Washington Post .
“ In most of these states , I ’ m not going to be at a threshold @ @ @ @ @ @ @ sticking around not necessarily helpful or productive in terms of furthering the goals of this campaign.
” Also dropping out Tuesday was Michael Bennet , the senator from Colorado who never managed to gain much purchase in the race .
And on Wednesday , former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick dropped out as well .
Yang ’ s campaign was , despite the modest returns , surprisingly successful .
He was one of the earliest candidates in the race—although not quite as fast to enter as the dearly departed John Delaney , and even @ @ @ @ @ @ @ background is in business and as the founder of Venture for America .
Most handicappers , including me , didn ’ t give him much of a chance .
In the end , the skeptics were right , but Yang hung around longer , and made more of a splash , than anticipated .
In part , that was a testament to an unusual campaign that foregrounded a single , fairly unusual idea : that the federal government should cut a $ 1,000 check to every American adult every month .
It was @ @ @ @ @ @ @ gather an unusual coalition .
An appearance on Joe Rogan ’ s podcast one year ago was a turning point , drawing a group of supporters—the Yang Gang—who were mostly young and male but not really orthodox Democrats .
Yang managed to come across as at once nerdy and competent but also more of a regular guy than the typical politician .
Yang outlasted the other candidates who initially scanned as novelties and long shots , from Marianne Williamson to Tim Ryan .
He also outlasted many who looked like more traditionally strong @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Harris .
He was able to draw the polling and donations to qualify for most of the Democratic debates .
In the end , though , he had the same struggle as the rest of these former candidates : He just couldn ’ t quite build up enough support to become a genuine contender .
What ’ s less clear is what his mark on the race will be .
He helped popularize a universal basic income , but no other candidate has adopted it .
My colleague Noah Kim recently wrote that @ @ @ @ @ @ @ of Asian American voters away from the Democratic Party .
And Yang ’ s endorsement will be coveted by the remaining candidates—though he told my colleague Edward-Isaac Dovere that he ’ s not going to be bestowing it immediately .
He might even be a contender for a Democratic Cabinet .
Bennet was a more standard candidate .
After all , it ’ s hardly unusual for U.S. senators to run for president .
But his run was still a bit of a surprise .
Until a viral moment in January 2019 , @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Cruz , Bennet ’ s reputation was as an affable , head-down , hardworking senator , but not presidential timber .
That ’ s pretty much what the campaign showed too .
Bennet was quickly knocked off the debate stage when he failed to meet requirements .
He decided to skip serious campaigning in Iowa and go straight to New Hampshire , but a late push from James Carville couldn ’ t save his campaign .
As for the other candidate leaving the race , well , Deval , we hardly knew ye—literally @ @ @ @ @ @ @ last candidate in the race ( edging Michael Bloomberg by 10 days ) , but a stunning 43 percent of voters told Morning Consult they ’ d never even heard of him .
Patrick , a relatively successful former governor , Justice Department official , and friend of Barack Obama , might have been a decent contender in some universes , but his short campaign shows the folly of getting into the race so late and hoping to make a splash .
Patrick was pushed in part by party mandarins worried about the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ on underscores how Democratic voters , though fragmented , are fairly happy with their choices .
If you ’ re going to get any purchase this late in the race , you ’ d better be ready to make some purchases—gazillions of dollars worth , like Bloomberg .
As the primaries progress , this cheat sheet will be updated regularly .
Who is he ?
The billionaire former mayor of New York , Bloomberg is a Democrat turned Republican turned independent turned Democrat again .
Is he running ?
Yes .
Having ruled @ @ @ @ @ @ @ changed his mind in early November and officially launched his campaign on November 24 .
Why does he want to run ?
For starters , he is convinced that he ’ d be better and more competent at the job than anyone else .
Bloomberg ’ s bid will likely center on his pet issues of gun control , climate change , and fighting the more fiscally liberal wing of the Democratic Party tooth and silver-plated nail .
Who wants him to run ?
What , is his considerable ego not enough ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ well regarded , it ’ s unclear what Bloomberg ’ s Democratic constituency is beyond other wealthy , socially liberal , and fiscally conservative types , and it ’ s not as if he needs their money to run .
Can he win the nomination ?
Who even knows anymore ?
His lavish spending has helped Bloomberg gain a toehold in polls , and Joe Biden ’ s Iowa collapse could drive moderates to alternatives like hizzoner .
Who is he ?
A retired California hedge-funder , Steyer has poured his fortune into @ @ @ @ @ @ @ with running for office .
Is he running ?
No .
He announced on January 9 that he would sit the race out .
Lol jk !
Steyer decided to get back into the race on July 9 after all .
Why does he want to run ?
Impeachment , baby .
Who wants him to run ?
Steyer has managed to gain ground among African American voters in South Carolina .
It ’ s pretty threadbare beyond that .
Can he win the nomination ?
Nope .


theatlantic--2020-02-12--A Drawn-Out Nomination Fight Is More Likely Than Ever

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts , who were widely considered the race ’ s principal contenders for most of last year , were staggered by showings even weaker than anticipated .
“ I think everyone thought two weeks ago that Biden probably had the best chance of building the coalition that could pull everybody together , ” Simon Rosenberg , the founder of the Democratic advocacy group NDN , told me .
“ And right now , assuming that Biden is weakened , it ’ s not clear that anyone is going to be @ @ @ @ @ @ @ that can produce a delegate majority for the convention this summer .
Biden ’ s campaign says it is ready to fight on in Nevada and especially South Carolina , with its large population of African American voters .
But the extent of Biden ’ s collapse in New Hampshire , where he won less than 9 percent of the vote , has many Democratic strategists questioning whether he can forge a path back to relevance in the race .
“ I don ’ t see how he carries forward , ” the @ @ @ @ @ @ @ me .
“ I think it ’ s too much of a repudiation.
” Biden ’ s precipitous decline will immediately shift more focus to former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg among party centrists skeptical of Sanders .
Yet the release yesterday of an audio tape capturing Bloomberg defending in stark language the controversial stop-and-frisk policing tactic he employed in New York City underscores the ideological and racial obstacles he may face as the media and other candidates zero in on his record .
All of this stands in stark contrast to @ @ @ @ @ @ @ when the race effectively resolved to a two-person battle after Iowa and New Hampshire .
This year , the party faces the prospect of sustained uncertainty not only after the first two states , but even after the Nevada and South Carolina competitions still to come in February—and maybe even after Super Tuesday on March 3 , when 14 states will vote .
“ We ’ ll head into Super Tuesday without a lot of clarity and with Bloomberg representing an entirely new dynamic in all of this , ” the Democratic pollster @ @ @ @ @ @ @ race is very , very different , where these first four states are setting the table for Super Tuesday but they are not the main event.
” If anything , the New Hampshire results spotlighted the obstacles confronting each of the candidates .
As he did in Iowa , another preponderantly white state , Buttigieg amassed by far the most balanced coalition—whether measured by age , ideology , or education—and finished a very solid second , only about 4,000 votes behind Sanders .
But Buttigieg failed to consolidate a deep enough advantage with @ @ @ @ @ @ @ share beyond the 20 to 25 percent that he captured last week .
Now he faces the stern test of competing in more racially diverse states after polls consistently have shown him attracting negligible support from African American and Latino voters .

Senator Bernie Sanders’s unexpectedly narrow victory in New Hampshire underscored the splintering of the Democratic presidential field that was evident in last week’s murky Iowa caucus—and left two of his opponents facing grim questions about their future viability.
Just as in Iowa, the results illuminated the inability of any of the contenders to build a coalition broad enough to span the party or establish much separation from rival candidates. The roughly 26 percent share of the total vote that Sanders captured represents much less than half of his winning 60 percent just four years ago. And similar to former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s performance in Iowa, Sanders won the smallest share of voters ever garnered by a Democratic winner of the New Hampshire primary. (The previous low was nearly 29 percent, for Jimmy Carter in 1976.)
The New Hampshire results confirmed Sanders and Buttigieg as the field’s top-tier contenders and elevated Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who surged from a fifth-place finish in Iowa to a strong third here after a widely praised debate performance on Friday night. But the outcome may end up diminishing two of the field’s previous leaders more than it boosts the candidates who came out on top.
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who were widely considered the race’s principal contenders for most of last year, were staggered by showings even weaker than anticipated. “I think everyone thought two weeks ago that Biden probably had the best chance of building the coalition that could pull everybody together,” Simon Rosenberg, the founder of the Democratic advocacy group NDN, told me. “And right now, assuming that Biden is weakened, it’s not clear that anyone is going to be strong enough” to amass a coalition that can produce a delegate majority for the convention this summer.
Read: The night socialism went mainstream
Biden’s campaign says it is ready to fight on in Nevada and especially South Carolina, with its large population of African American voters. But the extent of Biden’s collapse in New Hampshire, where he won less than 9 percent of the vote, has many Democratic strategists questioning whether he can forge a path back to relevance in the race. “I don’t see how he carries forward,” the veteran Democratic pollster Stanley B. Greenberg told me. “I think it’s too much of a repudiation.”
Biden’s precipitous decline will immediately shift more focus to former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg among party centrists skeptical of Sanders. Yet the release yesterday of an audio tape capturing Bloomberg defending in stark language the controversial stop-and-frisk policing tactic he employed in New York City underscores the ideological and racial obstacles he may face as the media and other candidates zero in on his record.
All of this stands in stark contrast to the past four Democratic nominating contests, when the race effectively resolved to a two-person battle after Iowa and New Hampshire. This year, the party faces the prospect of sustained uncertainty not only after the first two states, but even after the Nevada and South Carolina competitions still to come in February—and maybe even after Super Tuesday on March 3, when 14 states will vote.
“We’ll head into Super Tuesday without a lot of clarity and with Bloomberg representing an entirely new dynamic in all of this,” the Democratic pollster Geoff Garin told me. “This race is very, very different, where these first four states are setting the table for Super Tuesday but they are not the main event.”
If anything, the New Hampshire results spotlighted the obstacles confronting each of the candidates.
As he did in Iowa, another preponderantly white state, Buttigieg amassed by far the most balanced coalition—whether measured by age, ideology, or education—and finished a very solid second, only about 4,000 votes behind Sanders. But Buttigieg failed to consolidate a deep enough advantage with any one group to move his vote share beyond the 20 to 25 percent that he captured last week. Now he faces the stern test of competing in more racially diverse states after polls consistently have shown him attracting negligible support from African American and Latino voters.
Klobuchar gave her campaign a breath of life after her disappointing finish in Iowa. The exit polls from New Hampshire showed her pushing aside Biden, capturing the largest share of seniors, and nudging past Buttigieg to win white voters with a college degree. With Warren’s decline potentially allowing Klobuchar to emerge as the most viable female candidate, “she’s the biggest wild card in the race right now,” Rosenberg said. Yet she, too, faces uncertain prospects in more diverse states—and the reality that a third-place New Hampshire finish has not provided a lasting burst of momentum for previous candidates in that position.
Both Warren and Biden faced a catastrophic collapse of their support, even among the groups that are supposed to provide the foundation of their candidacies. Sanders bested Warren about three to one among voters who identified as very liberal; among those who called themselves somewhat liberal, Warren tied with Biden for a distant fourth, behind Sanders, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar. Among women, Warren likewise only roughly tied Biden for fourth.
Read: Andrew Yang is dropping out. Here’s why.
Biden’s implosion was every bit as thorough. He captured only about 10 percent each of whites without a college degree, white seniors, and white moderates—three groups he’s relying on. Biden ran even more poorly than in Iowa among college-educated white voters, capturing only about one in 20, the exit polls found. And, as in Iowa, younger voters almost completely rejected him: He won fewer than one in 10 of those younger than 45.
Even Sanders faced as many questions as answers in the results. The win established him as the nominal front-runner in the unsettled Democratic race, in part because he has demonstrated so much more capacity to raise money than any of the candidates who are not self-funding. “You’d rather be playing Sanders’s cards than anybody else’s at this stage,” Garin said. “He has the prospect of continuing to win, albeit not with large majorities. But in this process, if you pile wins on top of each other, that gives you an awful lot of strength going into the home stretch.”
Yet others note that the results in the first two states show Sanders struggling to build the surging movement that he’s promised to inspire. “The question of how low Bernie’s ceiling is is a big question in this race right now,” Rosenberg said. “Bernie’s got good-news bad news. He’s doing well, but he’s not doing well enough to win.”
In 2016, New Hampshire was Sanders’s best state, aside from his neighboring home of Vermont. He crushed Hillary Clinton with a commanding 60 percent of the total vote and built his broadest coalition in any state beyond Vermont. This time, Sanders’s coalition was both more narrow and more shallow. He dominated among younger voters, the biggest liberals, whites without a college degree, and men. But Sanders lost moderates (to Klobuchar and Buttigieg), adults ages 45 to 64 (to Buttigieg), and seniors (to Klobuchar). After comfortably winning somewhat liberal voters here four years ago, he split them about evenly with Buttigieg this time. Rather than expanding his coalition, Sanders depended on his most ardent constituencies.
The passion Sanders inspires in those supporters was evident in the huge crowds he mobilized across the state over the past week, especially the massive audience that flocked to a University of New Hampshire rally on Monday night. But as in last week’s Iowa caucus, Sanders failed to translate that passion into the systemic turnout increases that he has promised to generate. Overall turnout in Iowa remained essentially unchanged from the 2016 level, well below the record peak established in the 2008 contest between Barack Obama and Clinton. In New Hampshire, turnout came in around the 2008 figure, but young people comprised a significantly smaller share of the total than they did back then, according to exit polls.
The exit polls also suggested that Sanders made only modest progress in reaching beyond the voters who supported him in 2016. In New Hampshire, he took about one in seven voters who backed Clinton last time. That’s somewhat better than the meager one in 14 that he attracted among 2016 Clinton voters in Iowa. But the results still mean that about two-thirds of his votes last night came from people who already supported him once (even as nearly 40 percent of his 2016 supporters drifted off to other candidates).
These results raise pointed questions about whether Sanders can truly build a coalition broad enough to pull away from his rivals. Given the modest size of Sanders’s New Hampshire victory, Greenberg said, “I don’t see it producing a surge in the states following it.”
Of course, no one else in the race has given any indication of being able to assemble a broader coalition of voters than Sanders has done. The limits constraining all of the top-tier contenders—and the prospect of Bloomberg further splintering the electorate with his unprecedented spending—is why more Democrats are beginning to contemplate what seemed unimaginable not long ago: that for the first time since 1952, they will arrive at their party convention in Milwaukee this July without anyone laying claim to a majority of delegates. “I actually have been assuming that for some time,” Greenberg said. He may have more company after New Hampshire deepened the muddle left by last week’s initial results in Iowa—and as both Bloomberg and the first diverse states on the calendar still wait to weigh in.


theatlantic--2020-02-12--The Atlantic Politics Daily: What If No One Gets Enough Votes?

2 .
A certain billionaire ’ s fundraising juggernaut is a chaos factor .
My colleague Edward-Isaac Dovere wrote about how a Bernie-Bloomberg showdown could happen : “ The thought that superdelegates could cost Sanders the nomination is upsetting enough for his supporters .
The thought that he could lose to the man who shut down Occupy Wall Street with a dead-of-night police raid and has been nonchalantly spending his way into the Democratic process … it ’ s just too much.
” 3 .
If the brokered-convention scenario comes to pass , who will emerge as a kingmaker ?
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ That role could fall to a familiar face : Harry Reid , the former Senate majority leader beloved by Democrats across teh spectrum .
Reid , who retired in 2017 , is wrestling with a fatal cancer diagnosis that was supposed to have killed him already .
The once novelty candidate Andrew Yang dropped out the night of the New Hampshire primary , after struggling to make any real showing once votes were cast , but also having raised more money and qualified for more debates than even some candidates still currently running @ @ @ @ @ @ @ the eventual Democratic nominee , Yang told Edward-Isaac Dovere : “ You know , I ’ m not a dick .
Like , obviously someone like offers me something serious and impactful but we can help do some good work , I ’ m not going to be like , ‘ Fuck that.
’ ” Read the full story on the end of # MATH .
+ Also notable : In quick succession , Michael Bennet and Deval Patrick have both dropped out of the Democratic race .
We hardly new ye .
@ @ @ @ @ @ @ to be the governor of Massachusetts .
He ’ s a Republican .
He ’ s running against Trump .
Here ’ s what he ’ s up against : Commanding more than 85 percent of the vote , Trump spun it as an unqualified victory .
While it wasn ’ t the resounding 97 percent of the vote that Ronald Reagan carried as the incumbent in 1984 , Trump won a higher percentage of the vote than Barack Obama , both George Bushes , and Bill Clinton did in their reelection primaries @ @ @ @ @ @ @ from New Hampshire , Weld has a few other goals in mind .
The Trump administration ’ s attempt to kill one of America ’ s strongest climate policies has been a complete debacle .
Robinson Meyer tells the inside story of this stunning boxing out of the EPA .
It was the beginning of a fiasco that could soon have global consequences .
The Trump administration has since proposed to roll back the tailpipe rules nationwide , a move that , according to one estimate , could add nearly 1 billion tons @ @ @ @ @ @ @ Officials have justified this sweeping change by claiming that the new rules will save hundreds of lives a year .
They are so sure of those benefits that they have decided to call the policy the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient Vehicles Rule—or SAFE , for short .
SNAFU may be a better moniker .
Today ’ s newsletter was written by Saahil Desai , an editor on the Politics desk , and edited by Shan Wang , who oversees newsletters .
You can reply directly to this newsletter with questions or comments , or @ @ @ @ @ @ @ .
Your support makes our journalism possible .
Subscribe here .

The prospect that Democrats don’t coalesce around one candidate is a nightmarish scenario for many in the party. Plus: The inside story of a climate policy SNAFU.
The Atlantic Politics Daily: What If No One Gets Enough Votes?
It’s Wednesday, February 12. On upheaval around the sudden, lighter sentence recommendation for Trump associate Roger Stone: “The administration’s rush to aid Stone, especially set against the retributive firings, shows Trump newly willing to flex his muscles,” David Graham writes.
In the rest of today’s newsletter: Let’s talk about contested conventions. Plus: How Trump boxed the EPA out of a major climate rollback.
*
« TODAY IN POLITICS »
(MATT ROURKE / AP)
These are two words that no Democrat wants to hear: Brokered convention.
The prospect that Democrats don’t coalesce around one particular candidate by this summer is a nightmarish scenario for many in the party. An all-out brawl for the nomination could hamper the party’s ability to take on President Trump in November.
Last night’s New Hampshire primary may have only heightened fears of a brokered convention. Bernie Sanders beat the rest of the field, narrowly, and as my colleague Ron Brownstein has pointed out, none of the candidates have assembled a broad enough coalition to snag a majority of the delegates.
1. In the neighboring state that should be favorable to him, the Vermont senator didn’t sweep. Sanders got 26 percent of the vote, the lowest ever for a Democrat winner in the state. (The previous low was Jimmy Carter, in 1976.)
2. A certain billionaire’s fundraising juggernaut is a chaos factor. My colleague Edward-Isaac Dovere wrote about how a Bernie-Bloomberg showdown could happen:
“The thought that superdelegates could cost Sanders the nomination is upsetting enough for his supporters. The thought that he could lose to the man who shut down Occupy Wall Street with a dead-of-night police raid and has been nonchalantly spending his way into the Democratic process … it’s just too much.”
3. If the brokered-convention scenario comes to pass, who will emerge as a kingmaker? Who will mediate the various factions? That role could fall to a familiar face: Harry Reid, the former Senate majority leader beloved by Democrats across teh spectrum. Reid, who retired in 2017, is wrestling with a fatal cancer diagnosis that was supposed to have killed him already.
—Saahil Desai
*
« OTHER CANDIDATES »
(M. SCOTT BRAUER / REDUX)
The once novelty candidate Andrew Yang dropped out the night of the New Hampshire primary, after struggling to make any real showing once votes were cast, but also having raised more money and qualified for more debates than even some candidates still currently running.
But he’ll be behind the eventual Democratic nominee, Yang told Edward-Isaac Dovere:
“You know, I’m not a dick. Like, obviously someone like offers me something serious and impactful but we can help do some good work, I’m not going to be like, ‘Fuck that.’”
Read the full story on the end of #MATH.
+ Also notable: In quick succession, Michael Bennet and Deval Patrick have both dropped out of the Democratic race. We hardly new ye.
(JESSICA RINALDI / THE BOSTON GLOBE VIA GETTY)
This is Bill Weld. He used to be the governor of Massachusetts. He’s a Republican. He’s running against Trump. Here’s what he’s up against:
Commanding more than 85 percent of the vote, Trump spun it as an unqualified victory. While it wasn’t the resounding 97 percent of the vote that Ronald Reagan carried as the incumbent in 1984, Trump won a higher percentage of the vote than Barack Obama, both George Bushes, and Bill Clinton did in their reelection primaries.
But, as Adam Harris reports from New Hampshire, Weld has a few other goals in mind.
*
« EVENING READ »
(ELAINE CROMIE)
Clean Car Catastrophe
The Trump administration’s attempt to kill one of America’s strongest climate policies has been a complete debacle. Robinson Meyer tells the inside story of this stunning boxing out of the EPA.
It was the beginning of a fiasco that could soon have global consequences. The Trump administration has since proposed to roll back the tailpipe rules nationwide, a move that, according to one estimate, could add nearly 1 billion tons of carbon pollution to the atmosphere. Officials have justified this sweeping change by claiming that the new rules will save hundreds of lives a year. They are so sure of those benefits that they have decided to call the policy the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient Vehicles Rule—or SAFE, for short. SNAFU may be a better moniker.
Read the rest.
*